Full text of Business Conditions Digest : December 1989
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U.S. OF COMMERCE Robert A. Mosbacher, Secretary Michae! R. Darby, Under Secretary for Economic Affairs BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSES Altan H.. Young, Director Carol S. Carson, Deputy Director George R. Green, Editor This report is prepared by the Business Outlook Division of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. (Telephone: 202-523-0800) Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are as follows: Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review Brian 0. Kajutti—Computer system development Charles S. Robinson—Composite indexes Mary D. Young—Data base manager The cooperation of Government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and sources at the back of this report. This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consisting of the following persons: Ronald E. Kutscher, Acting Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor Ahmad AS-Sarnarrie, Office of Management and Budget John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury Frank de Leeuw, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce Andrea Kusko, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Peter M. Taylor, Council of Economic Advisers Charles A. Waite, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides a monthly look at many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts and forecasters. The original BCD, which began publication in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions and prospects. The report's contents were based largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its usefulness to analysts using other approaches to business conditions analysis. Principal additions to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's present title was adopted. The dominant feature of the current BCD is the cyclical indicators section, in which each business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way timing classification according to its behavior at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of presentation is explained in the introductory text which begins on page 1. Most of the data contained in this report also are published by their source agencies. A series finding guide and a complete list of series titles and sources can be found at the back of the report. Annual subscription price: $44.00 domestic, $55.00 foreign. Single copy price: $4.00 domestic, $5.00 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are available on request. Address correspondence concerning subscriptions to Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Make checks payable to Superintendent of Documents. Cyclical Indicators are economic time series which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process and by their average timing at business cycle peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks and troughs combined. These indicators have been selected primarily on the basis of their cyclical behavior, but they also have proven useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business conditions and prospects. They include selected components of the national income and product accounts; measures of prices, wages, and productivity; measures of the labor force, employment, and unemployment; economic data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with major foreign countries. New Features and Changes for This Issue . . . Composite Indexes: Latest Release . . iii v RSETIHIOCD ©F IPKESENTATBON Seasonal Adjustments . . .\ MCD Moving Averages Reference Turning Dates Part I. Cyclical Indicators Part 11. Other Important Economic Measures How To Read Charts How To Locate a Series . . .• Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes 1 1 1 1 ..... ..... ..... 4 5 5 6 Data Through November Volume 29, Number 12 A2 A3_ Composite Indexes Leading Index Components Coincident Index Components Lagging Index Components Chart Table 10 12 14 15 60 — — — 16 19 21 23 26 28 31 61 63 64 65 68 69 71 36 — .39 74 77 — . ~W~] ———i _Ei_J JB2_ J33_ _B4_ JB5_ lBg_. BY EOOMOIiiflC Employment and Unemployment Production and Income Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries Fixed Capita! Investment Inventories and Inventory Investment Prices, Costs, and Profits Money and Credit DGFFUSIOW AWOKATES OF CHANGE Diffusion Indexes Selected Diffusion Index Components Rates of Change . The Secretary of Commerce has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business required by law of this Department. Vl A2 A3 A4 A5_ A6 A7_ A8 PRODUCT Chart GNP and Personal Income . . . . ............................... 40 Personal Consumption Expenditures .................... . . . . . . 41 Gross Private Domestic Investment ............................ 42 Government Purchases of Goods and Services ................... 43 Foreign Trade ............. . ____ . .......................... 44 National Income and Its Components ..... . ......... . .......... 45 Saving .............. . . ....... . ...... . . .................... 46 Shares of GNP and National Income . . ......................... 47 Table 80 80 81 81 82 82 82 83 48 49 84 87 51 89 52 53 90 90 ...... 56 57 92 93 Industrial Production ....... ............... . ................ Consumer Prices ............................ . ........ . . . . . Stock Prices ............ . ...... . ................... . ...... 58 59 59 94 95 96 Price Movements ......... . Wages and Productivity ......... ................................ ............ . ................ EMPLOYMENT, • Civilian Labor Force and Major Components . D2 Receipts and Expenditures ....... . . ....... . . . Defense Indicators ............................ ............. . ..... ........ . ....... . ............ U.S. Merchandise Trade ............. Goods and Services Movements . ........................... ........................ „ III APPENDIXES Cyclical Indicators: New Composite Index Components Current Adjustment Factors (August 1989 issue) Historical Data for Selected Series Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (July 1989 issue) Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators Supplemental Data and Analyses Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide Titles and Sources of Series 97 98 104 105 108 112 Readers are invited to submit comments and suggestions concerning this publication. Address them to Editor, Business Conditions Digest, Business Outlook Division (BE-52), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230. NEW FEATURES AND FOR THIS ISSUE Weekly Updates BCD data now.are updated weekly on the Commerce Department's Economic Bulletin Board (EBB), The last 2 calendar years of data for about 360 BCD series are available in the 2YRDATA.BCD file. The file usually is updated in the afternoon of the first working day of each week* You must have an EBB account to download the file. For information about the EBB, call 202-377-1986. Changes in this are as follows: 1. Historical data for series 10., 20, 24, 27, 61,'100, 200, 345, 346, 358, 370, 723, 961, 963, and 970 are shown in appendix C (pages 98-103). 2. Specific peak and trough dates for the composite indexes and their components are shown in appendix F (page 104). The January issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for release on February 6 0 . • . iii Information on the Economy Now Available Faster And at Lower Cost The SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS is a comprehensive source for estimates and analysis on the U.S. economy. It is the monthly journal of record not only for the headline-making numbers that influence decisionmakers in business and government—GNP, personal income (both regional and national), U.S. merchandise trade, and corporate profits, to name a few—but also for the statistical detail and methodology that underlie those numbers. In addition it carries, from over 100 sources, the latest estimates for 1,900 time series on practically all aspects of the economy. So if you need to know about the state of the Nation's economy, in detail, month by month, the SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS is the source. Superintendent of Documents Subscriptions Order Form Order Processing Code: Charge your order. 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Mail To: Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402-9371 2/88 COMPOSITE INDEXES-OF LEADING, COINCIDENT, AND LAGGING INDICATORS: NOVEMBER 1989 The composite index of leading indicators increased 0.1 percent in November to 144,7 (1982=100), according to preliminary estimates released December 29 by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis, On the basis of revised estimates, the index decreased 0,3 percent in October and increased 0.1 percent in September. A- month ago, the Bureau reported estimates that showed the index decreased 0,4 percent in October and increased 0,3 percent in September, Average workweek was the major contributor to the October and September revisions. Five of 11 indicators contributed to the November increase in the index. They were, ordered from the largest positive contributor to the smallest: manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods arid materials in 1982 dollars, average weekly initial claims for State unemployment insurance, contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars, money supply in 1982 dollars, and change in manufacturers' unfilled orders in 1982 dollars. Six of 11 indicators made negative contributions. They were, ordered from the largest negative contributor to the smallest: change in sensitive materials prices, stock prices, index of consumer expectations, average workweek, building permits, and vendor performance (slower deliveries diffusion index). The composite index of coincident indicators, a monthly approximation of aggregate economic activity, increased 0,4 percent in November to 133,4 (1982=100), The index decreased 0,4 percent in October and 0,3 percent in September, The composite index of lagging indicators increased 0,4 percent in November to 120*8 (1982=100), The index increased 0,3 percent in October and decreased 0,2 percent in September, The leading index is designed to predict monthly movements in aggregate economic activity, which is approximated by the coincident index. The lagging index is expected to move, after a time lag, in the same direction as the coincident index and thus to confirm the movements in the coincident index. More data on the composite indexes can be found on pages 10, 60, and 106 of this issue of Business Conditions Digest, Next release date: January 31 for the December composite indexes, A recorded telephone message on (202) 898-2450 provides information on the composite indexes and their components immediately upon their release. This and other news releases are available electronically at the time of public release through the Commerce Department's Economic Bulletin Board at a nominal charge to users. For information, call (202) 377-19860 COMPUTER USERS: YOU AREINVITED TO TAP-IN TO OF THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE A one-stop source for CURRENT ECONOMIC INFORMATION For access to the latest releases from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of the Census, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and other Federal agencies on such topics as: • • • • Gross National Product The Employment Situation Persona! 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The collection of this information is authorized by U.S.C. 1151-1157. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Technical Information Service 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield, VA 22161 BBC adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation due to the number of working or trading days in each month. As used in this report, the term "seasonal adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday adjustments where they have been made. Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these are the official figures released by the source agencies. However, for the special purposes of this report, a number of series not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a seasonally adjusted basis. This report is organized into two major parts. Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time series which have been found to conform well to broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are individual indicators, the rest are related analytical measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes, and rates of change. Part II, Other Important Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which are valuable to business analysts and forecasters but which do not conform well enough to business cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a few exceptions: Four series which are included in part I are also shown in part II to complete the systematic presentation of certain sets of data, . M C D Moving-;Averages such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest Month-to-month changes in a series are often section of part II consists of quarterly series from dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for the national income and product accounts; other cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the approsections relate to prices, labor force, government priate span over which to observe cyclical and defense-related activities, and international movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.) transactions and comparisons. It is the smallest span of. months for which the The two parts are further divided into sections average change in the cyclical factor is greater than (see table of contents), and each of these sections that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a is described briefly in this introduction. Data are series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. begin with 1962, but those for the composite MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of indexes and their components (part I, section A) the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the begin with 1952, and a few charts use a two-panel same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a format which covers only the period since 1977. 5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5 Except for section F in part. II, charts contain will show its cyclical movements about as clearly shading which indicates periods of recession in as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an general business activity. The tables contain data MCD of 1. for only the last few years. The historical data for The charts in this report generally include the various time series are contained in the 1984 centered MCD moving averages for those series Handbook of Cyclical Indicators. with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally In addition to the charts and tables described adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their above, each issue contains a summary table which variation about the moving averages and to provide shows the current behavior of many of the series. observations for the most recent months. Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors, measures of variability, specific cycle turning Reference Turning Dates dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other information of analytical interest. An index appears The historical business cycle turning dates used at the back of each issue. It should be noted that in this report are those designated by the National the series numbers used are for identification Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They purposes only and do not reflect precise mark the approximate dates when, according to relationships or order. However, all series NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general the range 1 to 199. practice, neither new reference turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until after both the new reference peak and Seasonal Adjustments the new reference trough bounding the shaded area Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations have been designated. are often necessary to bring out the underlying The historical reference turning dates are subject trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for to occasional reviews by NBER and may be changed the effects of repetitive intrayear variations as a result of revisions in important economic resulting primarily from normal differences in time series. The dates shown in this publication weather conditions and from various institutional for the 1948-70 time period are those determined arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has designated turning points for recessions in 1973-75, 1980, and are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; however, a separate holiday 1981-82. Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS Business cycles have been defined as sequences of expansion and contraction in various economic processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment, income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive, business cycles of historical experience have been definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in duration and intensity, reflecting changes in economic systems, conditions, policies, and outside disturbances. One of the techniques developed in business cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is the cyclical indicators approach. This approach identifies certain economic time series as tending to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad movements in aggregate economic activity. Such indicators have been selected and analyzed by NBER in a series of studies published between 1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research staff. The present format and content of part I of BCD are based on the results of that study. Section A. Composite Indexes and Their Components All cyclical indicators have been evaluated according to six major characteristics: Economic significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of timing at business cycle peaks and troughs, c o n f o r m i t y to business e x p a n s i o n s and contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability (currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme was developed and used to assess each series by all of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and November 1975 issues of BCD.) The resulting scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series during the period 1947-70. This analysis produced a new list of indicators classified by economic process and typical timing at business cycle peaks and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below relating to section B.) This information, particularly the scores relating to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the selection of series to be included in the composite indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring series from many different economic-process groups and combine those with similar timing behavior, using their overall performance scores as weights. Because they use series of historically tested usefulness and given timing characteristics (for example, leading at both peaks and troughs), with diversified economic coverage and a minimum of duplication, composite indexes give more reliable signals over time than do any of the individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the 1 of A. by Economic Process and at x. Economic \Process Cyclical \. Timing ^v LEADING (L) INDICATORS (61 series) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT (C) INDICATORS (24 series) 1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (15 series) II. PRODUCTION AND INCOME (10 series) ill. CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES (13 series) Marginal employment adjustments(3 series) jot) vacancies (2 series) Comprehensive ; employment (1 .series) , Comprehensive unemployment (3 series) ' i Capacity utilization (2 series) Orders and deliveries (6 series) Consumption and trade (2 series) Comprehensive employment (1 series) Comprehensive output and income (4 series) Industrial production (4 series) Consumption and trade, (4 series) LAGGING (Lg) INDICATORS (19 series) Comprehensive unemployment (2 series) TIMING UNCLASSIFIED (U) (8 series) Comprehensive employment (3 series) Economic \. Process N. Cyclical \v Timing x. LEADING (L) INDICATORS (47 series) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT (C) INDICATORS (23 series) LAGGING (Lg) INDICATORS (41 series) Formation of business enterprises (2 series) Business investment commitments ' (5 series) - Residential construction • . , (3 series) ' , V. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (9 series) VI. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (18 series) VII. MONEY AND CREDIT (28 series) Inventory . investment • (4 series) Inventories on .hand and on order (1 series) Stock prices (1 series) Sensitive commodity ' prices (2 series) Profits and profit margins (7 series) Cash flows (2 series) Money (5 series) Credit flows (5 series) Credit difficulties (2 series) Bank reserves (2 series) Interest rates (1 series) Business investment commitments (1 series) Business investment expenditures (8 series) Business investment expenditures (1 series) Velocity of money (2 series) Interest rates (2 series) Inventories on . hand and on order (4 series) Unit labor costs and labor share (4 series) interest rates (4 series) Outstanding debt {4 series) Sensitive commodity prices (1 series) Profits and profit margins (1 series) interest rates (1 series) Consumption and trade (1 series) Business investment commitments (1 series) II. 111. PRODUCTION AND INCOME (10 series) CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES (13 series) IV. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (19 series) V. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (9 series) Vi. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (18 series) Marginal employment adjustments (1 series) industrial production Orders and deliveries (5 series) Consumption and trade (4 series) Formation of business enterprises (2 series) Business investment commitments (4 series) Residential construction (3 series) Inventory investment (4 series) Stock prices (1 series) Sensitive commodity prices (3 series) Profits and profit margins (6 series) Cash flows (2 series) Money (4 series) Credit flows (5 series) Credit difficulties (2 series) Marginal employment adjustments (2 series) Comprehensive employment (4 series) Comprehensive output and income (4 series) Industrial production (3 series) Capacity utilization (2 series) Consumption and trade (3 series) Business investment commitments (I series) Profits and profit .margins (2 series) Money (1 series) Velocity of money (1 series) Unit labor costs and labor share (4 series) Velocity of money (1 series) Bank reserves (1 series) interest rates (8 series) Outstanding debt (4 series) B* Timing at N. IV. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (19 series) Cycle Troughs 1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (15 series) )ob vacancies (2 series) Comprehensive . employment (1 series) Comprehensive unemployment (5 series) TIMING UNCLASSIFIED (U) (1 series) (1 series) Orders and deliveries (1 series) Business investment commitments (2 series) . Business investment expenditures (7 series) inventories on hand and on order (5 series) V». MONEY AND CREDIT (28 series) Bank reserves (1 series) independent measurement error and other "noise" in the included series are smoothed out in the index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly series that are acceptable in terms of relatively prompt availability and reasonable accuracy. The main composite indexes are distinguished by their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of leading indicators, series which historically reached their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the corresponding business cycle turns. There is an index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting of series which historically reached their turning points at about the same time as the general economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which includes series that typically reached their peaks and troughs later than the corresponding business cycle turns. The leading index contains series with long as well as short leads, but each series leads on the average over time and shows a frequency of leads at the individual turns exceeding that attributable to chance, given the historical distribution of cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948, leads were generally more frequent and longer at peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags were generally more frequent and longer at troughs than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and classifying the indicators takes into account these well-established d i f f e r e n c e s in timing. Consequently, rough coincidences include short leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is from -3 through +1 at peaks and from -1 through +3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and plus denotes lags in months.) indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a series known to have a useful pattern of early cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of the composite indexes show the length, in months, of leads (-) and lags (+) at each of the reference turning dates covered. The next set of data consists of series included in the principal composite indexes. These are the 11 components of the leading index, the 4 components of the coincident index, and the 6 components of the lagging index. Following the title of each series, its typical timing is identified by three letter symbols in a small box. The first of these letters refers to the timing of the given indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs combined. "L" denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a tendency to roughly coincide with the business cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency to lag. Since these series have been selected for the consistency of their timing at peaks and troughs, all but one component of the leading index are denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident index"C,C,C," and all components of the lagging index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that these classifications are based on limited evidence, namely the performance of the indicators during the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which included five peaks and five troughs. While the timing classifications are expected to agree with the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will not necessarily hold invariably in every instance. The timing of the series in the period since 1970 can be determined by inspection of the charts, where the recessions of 1973-75, 1980, and 1981-82 are shaded according to the dates of the NBER reference cycle chronology. August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58, February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation distinguishes seven major economic processes and four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells identify subgroups of the given economic process with the given timing characteristic. The number of series in each such group is given in parentheses following the title. Complete information on how individual indicators are classified by timing at peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected measures and scores, is provided in the 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators. Section C, Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from numerous components. How the individual components of an aggregate move over a given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index which indicates the percentage of components that are rising (with half of the unchanged components considered rising). Cyclical changes in these diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, they are computed from changes measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter) spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans. Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes are shown for the component series included in each of the three composite indexes and for the components of some of the aggregate series shown in section B. Diffusion measures can be derived not only from For purposes of constructing a composite index, actual data but also from surveys of anticipations each component series is standardized: The monthor intentions. Indexes based on responses of to-month percent changes in a given series are business executives about their plans and divided by the long-run average (without regard to Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process expectations for several operating variables are sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile presented, along with the corresponding indexes series are prevented from dominating the index. This section covers 112 individual time series, based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion The coincident index is calculated so that its long- including the 21 indicators used in the series. term trend (since 1948) equals the average of the construction of the composite indexes. The peak This section also records rates of change for the trends of its four components. This trend, which is and trough timing classifications are shown on the three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be charts in the same manner as described above, but lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate viewed as a linear approximation to the secular this section includes series with different timing at economic activity: GNP in constant dollars movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the (quarterly), industrial production, employee hours economic activity. The indexes of leading and lag- timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified in nonagricultural establishments, and personal ging indicators have been adjusted so that both as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of their trends and their average month-to-month measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for percent changes (without regard to sign) are ap- are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at 1-quarter spans. proximately equal to those of the coincident index. turning points of the given type. Eight series are Although movements in diffusion indexes and in (For a more detailed description of the method of unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 18 rates of change for the same aggregates are constructing the composite indexes, see the 1984 series at all turns (of the 18, 14 have definite but generally positively correlated, these two measures Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.) different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series present information about two related but distinct In addition to these principal composite indexes, that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes measure the prevailing direction or scope of differentiated according to cyclical timing, there is included in the list of cyclical indicators. are other indexes based on leading indicators that The classification scheme which groups the change, while rates of change measure the degree have been grouped by economic process. Taken indicators of this section by economic process and as well, as the overall direction. As is the case for together, these additional indexes include many cyclical timing is summarized in the two diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates component series of the overall leading index, plus tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is of change tend to lead those of the corresponding a few related series. Also shown in this section is based on the observed behavior of the series at five indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead the ratio of the index of roughly coincident business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53, at the business cycle turns as well. Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and capital goods purchased by private business and Unemployment nonprofit institutions and the value of the change This section contains measures of the civilian This part is divided into six sections which cover in the physical volume of inventories held by labor force and its major components: Total a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series private business. The former include all private numbers of employed and unemployed persons. measuring various aspects of economic activity. purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for The number of unemployed is subdivided into Some of these series are very comprehensive, tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used selected categories defined by sex, age, and class pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others goods are also included. Government purchases of goods and services of worker. Also included are data on participation have to do with particular sectors or markets, and (A4) is the compensation of government employees rates for a few principal segments of the labor still others relate to U.S. international transactions force. or to selected foreign countries. The represented and purchases from business and from abroad. It excludes transfer payments, interest paid by variables include incomes, outputs, and Section D. Government Activities expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity; government, and subsidies. It includes gross Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surlabor r e s o u r c e s ; g o v e r n m e n t r e c e i p t s , investment by government enterprises but excludes expenditures, and defense-related activities; ex- their current outlays. It includes net purchases of plus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels: ports and imports; and selected indicators for a few used goods and excludes sales and purchases of (1) Federal Government and (2) State and local land and financial assets. government. Also shown is a selection of series key foreign countries. Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports from the discontinued Defense Indicators. less imports of goods and services. Exports are part These series measure defense activities which Section A. National Income and Product of the national production; imports are not, but are influence short-term changes in the national The national income and product accounts, included in the components of GNP and are economy. Included are series relating to compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and therefore deducted. More detail on U.S. obligations, contracts, orders, production, final expenditures for the personal, business, international transactions is provided in section E. shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment. foreign, and government sectors of the economy. National income (A6) is the incomes that These series are grouped according to the time at Section Al shows the gross national product, originate in the production of goods and services which the activities they measure occur in the final sales, and personal and disposable personal attributable to labor and property supplied by defense order-production-delivery process. Series income. The four major components of the gross residents of the United States. Thus, it measures measuring activities which usually precede pron a t i o n a l p r o d u c t — p e r s o n a l c o n s u m p t i o n the factor costs of the goods and services production, such as contract awards and new orders, expenditures, gross private domestic investment, duced. It consists of the compensation of are classified as "advance measures of defense government purchases of goods and services, and employees, proprietors' income, rental income of activity." Series measuring activities which tend to net exports of goods and services—are presented in persons, corporate profits, and net interest. coincide with production, such as employment, and sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in Saving (A7) is the difference between income activities which usually follow production, such as section A are presented in current as well as and expenditures during an accounting period. shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final constant dollars. There are also a few per capita Total gross saving includes personal saving, measures of defense activity." series. The national income and product accounts, business saving (mainly undistributed corporate briefly defined below, are described more fully in profits and capital consumption allowances), and Section E. U.S. International Transactions the Survey of Current Business, Part I, government surplus or deficit. January 1976. This group includes monthly series on exports Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The Gross national product (GNP) is the market m a j o r e x p e n d i t u r e c o m p o n e n t s o f G N P (excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a value of final goods and services produced by the (consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as few selected components of these aggregates. Also labor and property supplied by residents of the percentages of GNP, and the major income shown are the balances between receipts and United States, before deduction of allowances for components of national income (compensation of expenditures for goods and services, merchandise, the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as and investment income. most comprehensive measure of aggregate percentages of national income. Section F. International Comparisons economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in business inventories. Personal income is the income received by This section is designed to facilitate a quick persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity review of basic economic conditions in six of the businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust nations with which we have important trade funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from The important data on price movements include relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary the monthly consumer and producer price indexes been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial disbursements, other labor income, proprietors' and their major components. Based largely on production, consumer prices, and stock prices for income, rental income of persons, dividends, these series are the quarterly price indexes from Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Gerpersonal interest income, and transfer payments, the national income and product accounts, notably many, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corless personal contributions for social insurance. the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights responding U.S. series. Also included is an inDisposable personal income is the personal reflecting the changing proportions of different dustrial production index for the European income available for spending or saving. It consists expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixed- countries in the Organization for Economic of personal income less personal taxes and nontax weighted price index for the gross business prod- Cooperation and Development (OECD). The inpayments to government. uct. Data on both levels and percent changes are dustrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is presented for the period since 1977. The group of series on wages and productivity economies covered. Changes in consumer price ingoods and services purchased by individuals, operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and consists of data on average hourly earnings and dexes (plotted for the period since 1977) provide the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings, average hourly compensation (including earnings important measures of the rates of inflation in the and financial services received in kind by in- and other benefits) in current and constant dollars, major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also dividuals. Net purchases of used goods are also in- output per hour of work in the business sector, and shown beginning in 1977) tend to be significant as rates of change for most of these measures. leading indicators. cluded. Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT MEASURES Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded area) as designated by NBER. Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER. Solid line indicates monthly data. (Data may be actual monthly figures or moving averages.) Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are plotted. ("9". = September) Broken line indicates actual monthly data for series where a moving average is plotted. Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data. Parallel lines indicates a break in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.). Solid line indicates monthly data over 6- or 9-month spans. Broken line indicates monthly data over 1-month spans. Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over 1-quarter spans. Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans. Diffusion indexes and of change are centered within the spans they cover. Solid Isne indicates percent changes over 3- or 6-month spans. Dotted line indicates anticipated data. Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter) Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic scale, "scale L-1" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles in that distance, etc. Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are used in computing the indexes. Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are used in computing the indexes. Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over various spans. Arabic number indicates latest month used in computing the changes. Broken Sine indicates percent changes over 1-month spans. Broken line with plotting points indicates percent changes over 1-quarter spans. Solid line with plotting points indicates percent changes over 3 - o r 4-quarter spans. Roman number indicates latest quarter used in computing the changes. 1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the series titles, or- 2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of the report where series are listed numerically according to series numbers within each of the report's sections. and Current Changes for Principal Indicators 1 1. Summary of Recent Basic data2 Series number Percent change Unit Series title and timing classification1 of Annual average 1987 1988 IstQ 1989 2dQ 1989 3dQ 1989 Sept. 1989 Oct. 1989 Nov. 1989 Sept. to Oct. 1989 Oct. to Nov. 1989 IstQ to. 2dQ 1989 144.7 133.4 120.8 110.4 -0.3 -0.4 0.3 -0.7 0.1 0.4 0.4 -0.1 -0.5 0.6 0.7 -0.2 -0.1 0.5 0. 0.5 910 920 930 940 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 914 915 916 917 2dQ to 3dQ 1989 I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS Al. Composite Indexes 910 920 930 940. Eleven leading indicators Four roughly coincident indicators . Seven lagging indicators Ratio, coincident index to lagging index .... 1982 = 100 L L,L do C,C,C.... do Lg Lg Lg do L,L,L... 140.1 122.4 111.3 110.0 142.8 128.2 114.9 111.6 L,L,L... 1967=100 do L|L,L .. .....do L,L,L... do L.L.L.... NA 106.3 121.7 145.8 NA 105.8 NA NA 3.7 320 L,Lg,U.... Ratio L,Lg,U.... 1967 = 100 U,C,C.... A.r.f bil. hrs U,C,C.... Millions do C,C,C.... L,C,U.... Thousands Leading Indicator Subgroups: 914. Capital investment commitments 915 Inventory investment and purchasing 916 Profitability 917. Money and financial flows 144.5 132,9 120.3 110.5 144.7 132.7 120.0 110.5 144.6 133.3 120.0 111. 1 145.0 133.5 119,9 111.3 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 41.1 3.9 305 41.1 3.9 306 41.1 3.8 313 41.0 3.8 325 41.0 3.8 320 40.8 3,7 357 40.7 3.7 343 0.615 153 0.701 158 0.718 154 0.699 153 0.676 148 0.660 146 0,685 151 0.641 145 189.99 109.23 102.20 24,708 196.44 111.80 105.58 25,249 200.32 113.66 107.68 25,634 201.44 114.18 108.34 25,664 202.31 114.24 108.92 25 , 6 5 9 202.73 114.20 109.10 25,614 60.77 61.54 62.19 62.26 62.23 62.16 62.16 62.24 0. 0.08 0.07 7,425 6.2 2.4 14.5 1.7 6,701 5.5 2.1 13.5 1.3 6,391 5.2 2.1 12.4 1.1 6,501 5.3 2. 1 11.9 1.1 6,501 5.2 2.1 11.6 1.1 6,584 5.3 2.1 11.4 1.1 6,561 5.3 2.2 11.8 1. 1 6,729 5.4 2.2 11.7 1.2 0.3 0. -0.1 -3.5 0. -2.6 -0.1 0. 0.8 -0.1 -1.7 -0.1 0. 4.0 0. 0. 0.1 0. 2.5 0. 37 43 45 91 44 3427.1 3442.8 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 50 52 2907.9 2928.3 2930.2 2937.4 2949.7 0,6 0.7 51 0.7 53 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.4 47 73 74 49 145.4 131.9 119.2 110,7 B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process Bl. Employment and Unemployment Marginal Employment Adjustments: *1 Average weekly hours mfg 21. Average weekly overtime hours, mfg.3 *5. Average weekly initial claims (inverted4) ... . L,L,L... Hours do L,C,L... L,C,L... Thousands Job Vacancies: 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment3 46. Help-wanted advertising in newspapers Comprehensive Employment: 48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments 42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities •*41 Employees on nonagricultural payrolls 40. Employees in goods-producing industries 90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age3 Comprehensive Unemployment: 37. Number of persons unemployed (inverted4) 43. Unemployment rate (inverted4)3 45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate (inv.4)3 *91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted4) 44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.4)3 U,Lg,U.... Percent. L,Lg,U.... L,Lg,U.... L,Lg,U.... Lg,Lg,Lg.... Lg,Lg,Lg.... Thousands Percent do Weeks Percent 41.0 203.42 204.90 114.33 114.64 109.19 109.40 2 5 , 6 0 7 25 , 6 0 4 -0,5 -0.1 -11.6 -0.2 0. 3.9 0. -0.1 -2,3 -0.2 0. -3,8 0.025 -0.044 -0.019 -0.023 -3.3 3.4 -4.0 -0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0. 0.7 0.3 0.2 0. 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 0. -0.03 1 21 5 60 46 48 42 41 40 90 62. Production and Income Comprehensive Output and Income: 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars 52 Personal income in 1982 dollars *5i. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars 53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, mfg., and construction ... .. . C.C.C.... A.r., bil. dol do C CC C,C,C.... do C,C,C.... do Industrial Production: *47 Industrial production 73 Industrial production durable mfrs 74 Industrial production nondurable mfrs 49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars C,C,C.... 1977 = 100 do C CC do.. C L,L C.C.C.... A.r., bil. dol Capacity Utilization: 82 Capacity utilization rate mfg3 84 Capacity utilization rate, materials3 Percent L CU do L,C,U.... 3 8 5 3 . 7 4 0 2 4 . 4 4106.8 4132.5 4162.9 3153.7 3264.5 3371.4 3 3 9 0 . 9 3416.2 3420.4 2696.0 2794.8 2890.2 0.2 0.4 560.8 568.4 565.0 568.7 569.6 572.5 567.9 0.5 -0,8 137.2 129.8 133.1 141.9 136.8 143.9 1 6 6 9 . 0 177 1.6 140.7 146.0 148.4 1823.2 141.8 147.1 149.9 1843.9 142.2 147.2 151.0 1851.3 142. 1 146.9 151.2 141.3 144.3 152.0 141.5 145.1 151.7 -0.6 -1.8 0,5 0.1 0.6 -0.2 84.4 83.9 84.0 83.7 82.7 82.9 -0,9 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 0. -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 82 84 -0.7 -0.6 5.1 5.0 0. -0.5 -1.1 -1.6 6 7 544.5 81.0 80.5 83.6 83.7 84.4 84.1 83.7 83,5 82.8 83.2 -0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 1. 1 B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries Orders and Deliveries: 6 Mfrs ' new orders durable goods 7. Mfrs' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods *8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials 25. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods3 96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods5 *32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries3 Consumption and Trade: 56 Manufacturing and trade sales *57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars 75. Industrial production, consumer goods 54 Sales of retail stores 59 Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles 58. Index of consumer sentiment 0 Bil dol . L,L L do L,L,L... 107.72 98.28 119.51 1 2 5 . 9 9 104.76 107.38 126.01 124.68 125.23 106.79 105.09 105.06 84.57 87.20 do 88.70 88.11 ILL 2.50 3.93 3.34 do 4.34 L,L,L... L,Lg,U.... Bil. dol., EOP ... 4 0 0 . 7 2 4 4 7 . 8 7 4 6 0 . 9 0 4 7 0 . 9 2 57.4 57.7 50.0 52.8 L,L,L... Percent C,C,C.... C.C.C.... C,L,C.... C,L,U U,L,U.... L,C,C.... L,L,L... 449.21 434.31 127.8 1977=100 126.78 Bil dol . do 114.88 A.r.,bil.dol 131.7 IQ 1966= 100. 90.6 484.86 450.11 133.9 135.76 119.13 144.2 93.7 87.12 1.39 475.09 45.2 124.35 130.68 104.41 1 0 9 . 6 3 87.58 89.54 87.85 2.44 6,98 0.83 475.09 477.53 484.51 42.7 43.8 42.5 -0.3 1.61 0.5 -1.1 2.2 4.54 1.5 -0.2 -0.7 -1.00 2.2 -2.8 -1.1 -1.95 0.9 -4.8 8 25 96 32 -0.7 -1.1 0.4 -1.3 -1.7 NA NA -0.2 0.8 0.5 -2.0 -3.2 1.6 0.6 0.7 1.8 0.4 1,3 -5.2 0.6 0.6 -0.4 1.7 1.8 4.4 1.8 56 57 75 54 59 55 58 -0,8 -3.8 -1.4 -2.9 12 13 508.92 517.18 454.89 457.49 138.5 139.5 1 3 9 . 6 6 142.15 120.26 120.71 142.7 144.5 95.9 90.9 520.06 522.76 460.33 462.70 139.0 138.9 144.57 145.29 122.86 123.55 150.9 92.5 95.8 519.23 457.69 139.5 143.36 121.39 93,9 90.9 121.2 124.1 125.5 126.5 57,113 5 6 , 9 7 8 59,119 5 6 , 8 5 6 123.7 122.8 55,207 54,502 123.4 NA. 123.6 NA 0.5 NA 0.2 NA 0.8 5.3 1.1 -1.7 10 Bil. dol do NA NA 139.2 144.56 121.99 B4. Fixed Capital Investment Formation of Business Enterprises: 12 Net business formation ... 13. New business incorporations ... . Business Investment Commitments: 10 Contracts and orders for plant and equipment *20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars 24. Mfrs.' new orders, nondefense capital goods 27. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense capital goods L,LL 1967 — 100 L,L,L... Number L,L L Bil dol 34.67 39.96 43.05 43.51 42.78 40.68 40.99 43.18 L,L,L... L,L,L... do do 39.51 29.66 45.05 35.01 47.19 38.56 47.72 38.94 47.78 37.97 46,61 35.34 45.94 35,99 47.80 38.99 -1.4 1.8 4.0 8.3 1.1 1.0 0.1 -2o5 20 24 L,L,L... do 35.15 40.89 43.52 44.00 43 .89 42.3] 41.91 44.43 -0.9 A .n 1.1 -0.7 97 of for Principal Indicators— Basic data2 Series title and timing classification 1 of Annual average measure 1987 Percen change ] 1988 IstQ 1989 2dQ 1989 3dQ 1989 Sept. 1989 Nov. 1989 Oct. 1989 Sept. to Oct. 1989 Oct. to Nov. 1989 -12.6 -14,3 IstQ to 2dQ 1989 2dQ to 3dQ 1989 Series number 1 Table 1. 1. CYCLICAL tiDICATORS-Con. B4. Fixed Capital investment— Con. Business Investment Commitments— Con.: 9. Construction contracts awarded, for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space L,C,U.... Mil. sq. ft 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, mfg U,Lg,U.... Bil. dol 5 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg. C,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ... Business Investment Expenditures: 61. Expenditures for new plant and equipment 69. Mfrs.' machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures 76. Industrial production, business equipment 86. Nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars 80,65 75.76 73.62 39,30 29.79 50,01 7 8 . 0 6 1 0 0 , 2 0 114.55 74.43 NA NA 76.73 NA NA 85 .52 74,73 C,Lg,Lg.... A.r., bil.dol 389,67 430,76 459.47 470.86 484.93 do C,Lg,Lg.... C,Lg,U.... 1977 = 100 C,Lg,C.... A.r., bil. dol 404,67 453,10 478,60 488.30 499.03 504.04 486,27 144,5 157,6 168.8 168.7 164.1 165,0 169.0 493,8 455,5 501,0 511.4 517.9 Residential Construction Commitments and Investment: 28. New private housing units started : *29. Building permits, new private housing units 89. Residential fixed investment in 1982 dollars L,L,L... A.r., thousands .. L,L,L.... 1967 = 100 L,L,L... A.r., bil.dol 1,620 122.9 194.8 1,488 116.0 194,1 1,517 109,5 195.6 1,352 106.0 189.3 1,338 104.4 184,8 19.1 21.9 1,264 105.2 1,428 108,1 64.06 NA 166.2 -3.5 -2,7 1,361 107.0 13.0 2.8 NA 1,3 -4.7 -1.0 1.1 NA NA 3,1 NA NA 9 11 97 2.5 3,0 61 2.0 2.3 2.1 2.2 0.1 1,3 69 76 86 -10.9 -3.2 -3,2 -1,0 -1,5 -2,4 28 29 89 85. Inventories and Inventory Investment Inventory Investment: 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars3 36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars (smoothed6)3 31 Change in mfg and trade inventories3 38. Change in mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order3 Inventories on Hand and on Order: 71. Mfg. and trade inventories5 70. Mfg. and trade inventories in 1982 dollars5 65 Mfrs ' inventories finished goods5 *77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars3 78. Mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order 5 L,L,L.... do 23.7 27 .9 24,5 L,L,L... L LL do do 25,10 46,9 20.34 53.0 22,31 47,1 -2.35 61.2 7.73 39.1 1.79 1.22 -0.25 0.61 -5,4 NA - 2 4 . 6 6 NA 14.1 2,8 30 10,08 -22,1 36 31 0,86 38 1,3 0.4 2.0 71 70 65 -5,54 40.0 NA NA -8.11 37.6 0,74 NA 1.66 NA Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ... 7 0 0 , 7 6 7 5 3 , 7 2 7 6 5 . 5 0 7 8 0 . 8 0 7 9 0 . 5 7 7 9 0 . 5 7 7 9 3 . 9 1 do Lg,Lg,Lg.... 664.72 687,97 690.50 694.54 697,01 697.01 698.65 Lg Lg Lg do 1 0 6 , 8 2 1 1 3 , 9 3 115,36 117,85 120.17 120.17 1 2 0 , 0 3 NA NA NA 0.4 0.2 -0.1 NA NA NA Lg Lg Lg 1.53 NA 0.02 NA -0.01 0,01 77 281.29 282.03 NA 0.3 NA -0.3 0.6 78 L,L,L.... Bil. dol Ratio 1,48 1,50 1,50 1,52 1,51 1,52 L,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ... 2 5 5 , 1 1 2 7 6 . 5 6 2 8 0 , 2 2 2 7 9 , 4 8 2 8 1 . 2 9 2.57 2.4 -0.92 1.51 -1.47 2.0 0.6 2.2 B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits Sensitive Commodity Prices: 98. Change in producer prices, sensitive materials3 23. Spot market prices, raw industrial materials© *99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed7) 3 L,L,L.... Percent U,L,L.... 1967 = 100 L,L,L.... Percent 1,36 274,5 1,09 0.31 303,3 0,45 0,86 329,5 0.91 0,07 331.5 0,49 -0.26 326.2 -0.37 0.29 327 .0 -0.48 0,64 325.7 -0.46 -1.55 314.2 -0.66 0.35 -0.4 0.02 -2,19 -3.5 -0.20 -0.79 0.6 -0.42 -2.1 7,8 -0,33 -1,6 -0,86 98 23 99 Stock Prices: *19 Stock prices, 500 common stocks @ L,L L .. 1941-43=10... 2 8 6 , 8 3 2 6 5 . 7 9 2 9 0 . 7 1 3 1 3 . 3 0 3 4 1 . 9 6 Profits and Profit Margins: 16 Corporate profits after tax 18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars 79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj 80 do in 1982 dollars. 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, mfg.3 26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business L,L L .. A.r., bil.dol do L,L,L... do L,C,L... do L CL . L,L,L.... Cents L,L,L... 1977 = 100 142,0 126,8 174,0 159,6 4.8 98,7 168,9 148,0 190,7 170,1 6,0 98,7 173,6 147.5 171,9 145,8 5,9 98,2 161.1 133.2 172,9 145.0 4.9 98.2 152.4 123,6 172,6 143.8 4,9 98.2 -7,2 -9.7 0.6 -0.5 -1.0 0, -5,4 -7.2 -0.2 -0.8 0. 0. 16 18 79 80 15 26 Cash Flows: 34. Corporate net cash flow 35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars L,L,L... A.r., bil.dol do L,L,L... 397,3 392,8 427,0 419,9 426,9 416.5 412.2 401,9 405,6 394,9 -3.4 -3.5 -1,6 -1.7 34 35 Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share: 63. Unit labor cost, business sector Lg,Lg,Lg.... 68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product, nonfinancial corporations Lg Lg Lg 62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg. a) Index Lg,Lg,Lg.... *b) Percent change3 1 Lg,Lg,Lg.... 64. Compensation of employees as percent of national income3 Lg,Lg,Lg.... 347.33 347,40 340.22 0. 9,1 19 1977=100 17 1,9 177,1 181,9 184,1 185,5 1.2 0.8 Dollars 0,730 0.744 0,768 0.778 0.783 1,3 0.6 68 1977 = 100 137,2 -0.9 138.3 1.5 139,6 1.6 139.2 1.7 140.2 1.5 -0,3 0.1 0.7 -0.2 62 62 73.4 73.2 73,2 73.4 74.0 0,2 0.6 64 A.r., percent Percent 140,6 1.9 143.3 5.4 141.8 5.1 1.9 3.5 -1.0 -0.3 63 B7. ioney and Credit Money: 85. Change in money supply Ml3 102 Change in money supply M23 104. Change in total liquid assets3 105. Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars *106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars Velocity of Money: 107. Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml3 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M23 Credit 33. 112 113. 111. 110. Flows: Net change in mortgage debt3 Net change in business loans3 Net change in consumer installment credit3 Change in business and consumer credit outstanding3 Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers Credit Difficulties: 39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inverted 4 ) 3 5 .. L,L,L.... do L CU do do .. . .. L,L,L... .. L,L,L... Bil.dol do .. L,L,L... C,C,C.... Ratio do C,Lg,C.... L,L,L... A.r., bil. dol L LL do L,L,L.... do L,L,L.... A.r., percent L,L,L.... A.r., bil. dol L,L,L.... Percent, EOP ... 0.30 0.41 -0.17 -0.68 0.10 0.10 0,29 0,45 0,62 0.24 0.39 0.37 6 0 4.4 6 3 2 , 7 6 2 2 . 7 631.6 2 4 3 0 . 0 2 4 5 3 , 8 2431.1 2400.3 6.078 1.319 6,289 1.350 6.499 1.406 6.707 1.429 0.84 0.48 0.47 0.62 0,65 0.73 0.58 0.46 0,25 603.2 604.6 606.9 2430.2 2442,6 2447.2 6.783 1.420 1.415 NA NA NA NA NA NA 8,30 37.84 73,57 67,54 25,19 -26.64 35.67 NA 51,79 38.75 16.45 14.09 6.1 8,3 NA 7,8 -1.4 2.4 5 5 3 . 2 0 616.47 591.15 584,12 5 6 7 . 8 4 2.47 2.49 2,39 2,30 2,88 2.88 0.29 0.71 NA 605.8 2453.1 0.36 0,03 0.33 0.4 0,2 -0.55 0.06 NA -0,2 0,2 -0.51 0, -0,13 -2.9 -1.3 1.15 0.63 0.22 -0.2 1.2 85 102 104 105 106 0.208 0,076 0.023 -0,009 107 108 NA NA -6,03 -42,35 NA - 2 4 , 6 6 NA -5.4 -1,2 -2.8 33 112 113 111 110 1.418 1.420 0.003 0,002 NA -2.42 40.02 NA NA 15,26 NA NA NA 24,22 23,57 NA NA 17.68 NA NA NA NA NA NA 0,09 -0.58 39 for Principal indicators—Continued I Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Basic data2 Percent change Annual average of 1987 1988 Sept. 1989 3dQ 1989 2dQ 1989 IstQ 1989 Oct. 1989 Sept. to Oct. 1989 Nov. 1989 IstQ to 2dQ 1989 Oct. to Nov. 1989 Series number Series title and timing classification1 2dQ to 3dQ 1989 1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con. B7. Money and Credit-Con. Bank Reserves: 93 Free reserves (inverted 4 ) 3 © 94. Borrowings from the Federal Reserve3 © Interest Rates: 119. Federal funds rate3 © 114. Discount rate on new Treasury bills3© 116. Yield on new high-grade corporate bonds3© 115 Yield on long-term Treasury bonds3 © 117. Yield on municipal bonds3 ©.... 118. Secondary market yields, FHA mortgages3 © 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans3 © *109. Average prime rate charged by banks3© Outstanding Debt: 66. Consumer installment credit outstanding5 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding *101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982 dollars *95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income3 241 - 1 , 3 3 2 756 2,357 LUU.... Mil. dol do L,Lg,U.... . .. 6.66 5.83 9.69 8.63 7.64 10.16 8.09 8.20 L,Lg,Lg.... Percent C,Lg,Lg.... do do Lg,Lg,Lg.... do C Lg Lg.. . do U,Lg,Lg.... do... Lg,Lg,Lg.... do Lg,Lg,Lg.... do Lg,Lg,Lg.... 7.57 6.67 9.96 8.98 7.68 10.49 9.18 9.32 -569 1,654 -929 . 1,833 242 687 245 693 465 555 596 349 -220 -138 -131 -206 9.44 8.53 10.12 9.19 7.46 10.91 10.97 10.98 9.73 8.44 9,72 8.84 7.25 10.50 11.89 11,36 9 .08 7,85 9.19 8.25 7.09 9.83 10.78 10.66 9.02 7.72 9,29 8,31 7.26 9.94 8.84 7.63 9.04 8.15 7.22 9.73 8.55 7.65 9.20 8.03 7.14 9.69 -0.18 -0.09 -0.25 -0.16 -0.04 -0.21 -0.29 0,02 0.16 -0.12 -0.08 -0.04 10.50 10.50 10.50 NA Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOF ... 6 0 7 . 7 2 6 5 9 . 5 1 6 9 1 . 1 6 7 0 0 . 8 5 7 0 4 . 3 7 7 0 4 . 3 7 7 0 7 . 7 1 364.07 3 9 0 . 3 2 418.54 4 3 5 . 2 9 445.51 446.49 446.28 447.56 Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol Lg Lg Lg.. . .. ..do 3 7 7 . 2 8 3 8 5 . 8 8 3 9 6 .49 3 9 7 . 5 8 3 9 5 . 9 9 3 9 7 . 1 2 0. 0.5 0. NA 0.3 93 94 0.29 -0.09 -0.40 -0.35 -0.21 -0.41 0.92 0.38 -0.65 -0.59 -0.53 -0.59 -0.16 -0.67 -1.11 -0.70 119 114 116 115 117 118 67 109 1,4 4.0 0.5 2.3 66 72 -0.4 0.3 2e3 2.7 101 15.57 15.69 15.91 15.86 15.77 15.77 15.72 NA -0.05 NA -0.05 -0.09 95 117.4 113.6 0.4 113.5 102.8 102.6 93.7 101.5 111,7 103.6 121.3 118.3 0.3 118,2 106.9 106,3 96.0 107.1 114.3 106.2 124.5 121,7 0.5 122.8 110.9 110.1 102.3 111.3 117.3 110.4 125.9 123.7 0.5 124,8 112 .8 112.2 104.2 112.5 118.1 112.7 126.9 124.7 0.1 125.9 112.4 111.8 102.3 112.1 119.3 112.1 125 .0 0.2 126 .2 112.3 111.9 102.3 112.3 120.2 112.5 125.6 0.5 126 .7 112.7 112.4 102.3 112.3 119.8 113.2 125.9 0,4 127 .4 112.7 112.2 102.7 112.2 120.2 113.0 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0. 0. -0.3 0.6 0.2 -0.1 0.6 0. -0.2 0.4 -0.1 0.3 -0.2 1.1 1.6 0. 1.6 1.7 K9 1.9 1.1 0.7 2.1 173.5 179.0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 94.0 188.9 100.8 111.1 108.9 93.3 197.7 101.3 113.0 111.1 NA 204.6 101,7 113.8 111.6 NA 207.4 101.5 114.2 111.9 NA 209.9 102.1 114.7 112.6 NA NA NA NA NA 0. 0.1 -0.3 -4.5 5.1 -0.5 -0.7 0.1 -0.3 1.0 354.19 364.95 Lg,Lg,Lg.... Percent 0. 3 6 0 -1, 171 179 -1, 146 II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity Bl. Price Movements 310 320. 320c 322 330 335 331 332. 333 334 1982=100 Implicit price deflator for gross national product Consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) ©.... 1982-84=100. Percent Change in CPI-U (S/ A) 3 1982-84=100. Consumer price index for all urban consumers food Producer price index (PPI) all commodities © .. . 1982=100 do PPI industrial commodities © . do PPI crude materials for further processing do PPI, intermediate materials, supplies, and components do PPI capital equipment do PPI finished consumer goods 0.8 0.8 -0.4 0.9 -0.4 -0.4 -1.8 -0.4 1.0 -0.5 310 320 320 322 330 335 331 332 333 334 NA NA 340 NA 1.4 -0.2 0.4 0.3 NA 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.6 341 345 346 370 358 0.3 0.2 2.6 3.1 0.8 4.9 2.6 0.4 0.3 1.7 -1.0 5.2 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.2 0. 2.0 -0.8 -2.8 1.1 441 442 37 444 445 446 447 0. 0.3 0.4 0. 0.1 0.8 -0.2 0,1 -0.2 451 452 453 2.1 1.6 1.3 -1.3 1.4 1.7 0.7 -0.9 -0.9 -2.6 1.0 1.5 500 501 502 510 511 512 B2. Wages and Productivity 340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls 341. Real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls 345 Average hourly compensation nonfarm business sector 346. Real average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector 370 Output per hour business sector 358 Output per hour nonfarm business sector 1977 = 100 .do do do do do . . C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment 441 442 37 444 445 446 447 Civilian labor force Civilian employment Number of persons unemployed Number unemployed males 20 years and over Number unemployed females 20 years and over Number unemployed both sexes 16-19 years of age Number unemployed full-time workers Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates: 451 Males 20 years and over3 452 Females 20 years and over3 453 Both sexes 16-19 years of age3 Millions do Thousands ' do do do do Percent do do 119.86 121.67 112.44 114.97 7,425 6,701 2,987 3,369 2,487 2,709 1,226 1,347 5,357 5,979 78.0 56.2 54.7 77.9 56.8 55.3 1 2 3 . 2 9 1 2 3 . 7 9 1 2 4 , 0 0 1 2 4 . 0 4 124.10 1 2 4 . 5 2 116.90 117 .29 117 .50 117 .46 117,54 117 .79 6,501 6 ,501 6 ,584 6,561 6,391 6, 7 2 9 2,798 2,902 2, 8 2 6 3,038 2,992 2,854 2,376 2,478 2,353 2,472 2,492 2,499 1,188 1,203 1,193 1,187 1, 169 1 ,245 5, 161 5,116 5 ,255 5,218 5 ,354 5,219 78.1 57.6 55,2 78.1 57.7 56.0 77.9 57.8 55 .8 77.9 57.8 55.6 78.0 57.5 56.6 78.0 57.8 57.0 D. Government Activities Dl. Receipts and Expenditures 501 502 510 511 512 Federal Government receipts Federal Government expenditures State and local government surplus or deficit3 State and local government receipts State and local government expenditures 517 525 548 557 570 564 Defense Department gross obligations incurred Defense Department prime contract awards Mfrs ' new orders defense products . .. Industrial production defense and space equipment Employment defense products industries Federal Government purchases for national defense -161.4 - 1 4 5 . 8 - 1 4 7 . 5 - 1 4 5 . 4 -144.7 A r bil dol do 911.4 9 7 2 . 4 1036.2 1053.2 1043.2 do 1 0 7 2 . 8 1118.3 1183.7 1198.6 1187.9 do 51.3 49.7 48.8 47,5 44.9 do 656 .1 701.6 732.6 742.6 750.3 604.8 651.9 683.8 695.1 705.5 . , .. .. do ... ... D2. Defense Indicators Mil. dol do do 1977=100 Thousands A r bil dol 30,812 31,783, 3 0 , 8 3 2 30,315 11,977 NA NA NA 9 ,145 9,140 8,478 8,354 188.9 185.8 180.6 179.3 1,580 1,550 1,528 1,529 294.8 298.0 298.7 301.3 NA NA NA NA 8 , 7 4 0 10,639 182.3 182.1 1,517 1,513 307.8 NA NA NA NA 9 , 6 6 8 11,173 175.7 177.1 1,506 NA NA NA -9.1 -3.5 -0.5 NA NA 15.6 0.8 NA -1.7 NA -1.5 0.7 -0.1 0.9 NA NA 4.6 0.9 -0.7 2.2 517 525 548 557 570 564 1.1 -3,1 0. 5.1 3.5 -5.2 NA NA NA NA NA NA 5.3 6,3 -0.1 2.8 21.5 -7,2 -0.9 -5.4 9.2 -0.3 -7.9 2.0 602 604 606 612 614 616 E. U.S. International Transactions El. Merchandise Trade 602 604. 606. 612. 614. 616. Exports excluding military aid shipments Exports of domestic agricultural products. Exports of nonelectrical machinery General imports Imports of. petroleum and petroleum products . Imports of automobiles and parts . ., Mil. dol .do. .do. .do. .do. do 2 1 , 1 7 6 26 , 8 6 8 2 9 , 2 9 4 3 0 , 8 3 3 3 0 , 5 7 0 3 0 , 6 8 0 3 1 , 0 0 8 2,400 3,114 3,337 3,548 3,357 3,274 3,173 4,428 5,549 5,830 5,823 6,358 6,413 6,412 3 3 , 8 5 4 3 6 , 7 4 6 3 8 , 5 4 9 3 9 , 6 2 4 3 9 , 5 2 2 3 9 , 1 9 4 41,210 3,471 3,680 4,470 3,209 4,000 4,141 4,119 5,896 5,942 6,078 5,643 5,754 6,215 5,894 NA NA NA NA NA NA Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued Basic data' Series title Percent change E Anrual average ol 2dQ 1988 3dQ 1988 MiQ 1988 IstQ 1989 ZdQ 1989 3dQ 1989 4th Q to IstQ IstQ to 2dQ 2<jQ to 3dQ 1989 1989 1989 -2.36 2.6 3.6 10.19 6.0 0.83 -0.20 0.2 0.3 ZJ 9, 1986 1987 1988 -29.37 97.99 127.36 -36.26 55.84 92 .11 22.15 16.74 -32.37 111.54 143.91 -39.88 62.57 102.44 26.18 20.60 -27.97 132.45 160.42 -31.80 79.81 111.62 26.94 26.39 -30.59 126.80 157.39 -31.41 78.47 109.88 23.15 25.61 -28.96 131.57 160.54 -30.34 80.60 110.94 24.72 27.31 -23.66 143.63 167.28 -32.02 83.73 115.75 33.16 28.67 -26.86 142.17 169.03 -28.38 87.92 116.30 26.83 29.25 -29.22 145.92 175.14 -27.55 91.42 118.98 26.64 32.76 -19.03 154.64 173.67 -27.75 91.57 119.32 33.81 31.20 5.0 0.5 -19.1 2.0 A.r., bil. dol do A.r., dollars A.r, bil. dol do do A.r., dollars 4231.6 3717.9 15,385 3712.4 3013.3 2635.3 10,905 4524.3 3853.7 15,794 3830.0 3205.9 2676.6 10,970 4880.6 4024.4 16,334 3996.5 3477.8 2793.2 11,337 4838.5 4010.7 16,303 3989.2 3435.9 2773.3 11,273 4926.9 4042.7 16,388 4005.2 3511.7 2806.4 11,377 5017.3 4069.4 16,452 4051.0 3587.4 2835.9 11,466 5113.1 4106.8 16,567 4082.3 3689.5 2881.7 11,625 5201.7 4132.5 16,633 4113.5 3747.7 2887.6 11,622 5281.0 4162.9 16,709 4141.0 3806.8 2919.2 11,717 1.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 2.8 1.6 1.4 1.7 0.6 0.4 0.8 1.6 0.2 0. 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 1.6 1.1 0.8 200 50 217 213 224 225 227 A.r., bil. dol do do do 2797.4 2446.4 406.0 384.4 942.0 878.1 1449.5 1183.8 3010.8 2513.7 421.0 389.6 998.1 890.4 1591.7 1233.7 3235.1 2598.4 455.2 413.6 1052.3 904.5 1727.6 1280.2 3204.9 2586.8 454.6 414.8 1042.4 899.2 1707.9 1272.8 3263.4 2608. 1 452.5 410.7 1066.2 910.3 1744.7 1287.0 3324.0 2627 .7 467.4 420.5 1078.4 912.0 1778.2 1295.2 3381.4 2641.0 466.4 419.3 1098.3 915.0 1816.7 1306.7 3444.1 2653.7 47 1.0 424.9 1121.5 909.7 1851.7 1319.0 3508.1 2690.1 486.1 436.4 1131.4 920.8 1.890.6 1332.9 1.7 0.5 1.9 0.5 1.0 1.3 2.1 1.9 1.4 3.2 2.7 0.9 1.2 2.1 1.1 230 231 232 233 236 238 237 239 do 659.4 639.6 652.5 634.1 6.9 5.6 699.9 674.0 670.6 650.3 29.3 23.7 750.3 715.8 719.6 687.9 30.6 27.9 748.4 713.5 719.1 692.0 29.3 21.5 771.1 733.6 726.5 696.1 44.6 37.5 752.8 709.1 734.1 690.8 18.7 18.3 769.6 721.1 742.0 696.6 27.7 24.5 775.0 719.8 747.6 700.7 27.4 19.1 779.1 724.6 751.7 702.7 27.4 21.9 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.3 0. 2.8 240 241 242 243 245 30 do do do do do do 872.2 761.6 366.5 334.1 505.7 427.5 926 .1 781.8 381.6 339.6 544.5 442.1 968.9 785.1 381.3 328.9 587 .6 456.2 960.1 783.0 377 .1 327.9 583.0 455.1 9 5 8 . 6 1011.4 1016.0 1 0 3 3 . 2 1038.9 806.4 799.7 810.3 805.3 775.9 406.4 399.0 406.0 402.7 367.5 336.1 319.8 343.9 335.5 343.6 5 9 1 . 0 6 0 4 . 9 6 1 7 . 0 627 .2 6 3 6 . 2 469.2 466.7 456.1 462.5 464.2 0.6 260 261 262 263 266 267 do do do do do do -97.4 -112.6 -129.7 -115.7 448.6 396.5 397.1 450.9 493.8 561.2 566.6 526.9 -73.7 -74.9 547.7 530.1 621.3 605 .0 -74.9 -72.6 532.5 519.7 607.5 592.3 -66.2 -74.9 556.8 531.9 623.0 606 .9 do do do do do do 3412.6 3665.4 3972.6 3933.6 4005.7 4097.4 4185.2 4249.6 4287.3 2 5 1 1 . 4 2 6 9 0 . 0 2 9 0 7 . 6 2 8 7 8 . 9 2 9 3 5 . 1 2 9 9 7 . 2 3061.7 3118.2 3171.9 343.3 2 8 2 . 0 311.6 327.8 331.8 327.0 328.3 359.3 355.5 5.4 11.6 15.7 14.6 16.3 16.1 11.8 9.8 13.4 328.6 340.2 316.3 307.8 295.2 282.1 298.7 325.3 330.9 353.6 391.5 383.0 396.4 415.7 436.1 458.4 471.5 331.9 II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Con. E2. Goods and Services Movements Except Transfers Under Military Grants 667. Balance on goods and services668. Exports of good's and services Bil. dol .: 620. Merchandise imports, adjusted 651. Income on U.S. investment abroad do do do do do do do -3.20 -1.0 1.0 3.64 4.0 2.3 -0.7 12.0 -0.8 26.9 -4.8 667 668 669 622 618 620 651 652 A. National Income and Product Al. GNP and Personal Income 200. 50. 217. 213 Gross national product Gross national product in 1982 dollars Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars Final sales in 1982 dollars 227. Per capita disposable personal income m 1982 dollars A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures 230. 231 232 233. 236. 238. 237. 239. Total Total in 1982 dollars Durable goods Durable goods in 1982 dollars. Nondurable goods Nondurable goods in 1982 dollars. Services .• Services in 1982 dollars .do. do .do do. -0.2 -0.3 1.8 0.3 2.2 0.9 -0.6 1.9 0.9 A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment 240 241. 242. 243. 245. 30. Total Total m 1982 dollars Fixed investment Fixed investment in 1982 dollars . Change in business inventories3 Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars3 do do. .do. do. .1)0. 2.2 1.7 1.1 0.8 9.0 6.2 0.7 -0.2 0.8 0.6 -0.3 -5.4 A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services 260 261 262 263, Total Total in 1982 dollars Federal Government Federal Government in 1982 dollars 0.5 -0.8 -1.8 -2.4 2.0 0.4 1.7 1.3 1.8 2.4 1.7 0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -2.2 1.4 0.5 A5. Foreign Trade 255 Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars3 257. Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars -70.8 -73.8 579.7 551.4 650.5 625.2 -54.0 -55.0 605.6 569.7 659.6 624.6 -50.6 -51.2 626.1 587.5 676.6 638,7 -45.1 -57.1 628.5 593.1 673.6 650.2 16.8 18.8 4.5 3.3 1.4 -0.1 3.4 3.8 3.4 3.1 2.6 2.3 5.5 -5.9 0.4 1.0 -0.4 1.8 250 255 252 256 253 257 A6. National Income and Its Components 220. National income 284. Rental income of persons with CCAdj 286. Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj 288 Net interest 2.1 2.2 9.4 -26.7 -7.0 1.5 1.8 -1.1 -16.9 -2.7 0.9 1.7 -3.4 -44.9 -4.1 4.9 5.1 2.9 7 .1 0.3 1.1 2.0 3.6 220 280 282 284 286 288 A7. Saving 290 Gross saving 292. Personal saving 298. Government surplus or deficit3 do do do do Percent 525.3 553.8 544.6 562.0 124.9 101.8 -144. 1 -110.1 4. 1 3.2 642.4 593.8 144.7 -96.1 4.2 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by © , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series indicated by an asterisk {*) are included in the major compos te indexes. Dollar values are in current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles and sources, see "Ttles and Sources of Series" at the back of this issue. NA, not available, a, anticipated. EOF, end of period. A.r., annual rate. S/A, seasonally adjusted (used tor special emphasis). IVA, inventory valuation adjus ment. CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. 1 The three-part timing code indicates the timing classiticaton of the series at peaks, a troughs, and at all turns: L, leading: C, roughly coincident; Lg, lagging; (J, unclassified. : Foi a lew series, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual figures published by the source agencies are used if available. 633.4 588.5 134.0 -89.1 3.9 1 6 6 9 . 8 647 .4 592.8 605.8 149.6 163.4 -72.7 -121.9 4.3 4.6 693.5 586.4 205.7 -98.7 5.6 695.8 593.0 200.7 -97.9 5.4 709 .9 614.5 195.1 -99.8 5.1 -3.2 25.9 23.2 1.0 -2.4 0.8 -0.2 -2.8 -1.9 -0.3 290 295 292 298 293 Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series, 'Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed. s End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period, 6 T h s series is a weighted 4-term moving average (wth weights 1, 2, 2, I) placed on the terminal month of the span, ' This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada. CYCLICAL INDICATORS A COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Chart Al. Composite Indexes July May P T Aug. Apr. F T Apr. Feb. F T Dec. Nov P T Jan. July July Nov. F T P T 195253 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989 NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates. Current data for these series are shown on page 60. 10 DECEMBER 1989 BCD CYCLICAL INDICATORS COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart Al. Composite Indexes—Continued July May P T I Index: 1967=1001 915. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 8,32,36,99) 916. Profitability (series 19,26,80) if 917, Money and *™«ml flm** («ri« 1M, lOfi, 111) -^ If / / J./ ^* "' "20 ft ~ IS " ^v. /V^ | | j^IZ ,T f^^ 150- ^ 140- EH y/'^^V.jrw-v-A/ A,/ 130120- I 110- || 11 21 IP 11% • , ' ' ( ' ' v' . -a -2 r^\^/ S^^ ^r* A _/*"^ 100- ^ 9080- ?n. Ihdex: 1982=1001 130-1 940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index 120- ^11 ^^^ W*H .c_x . A\// V*/ -^ *• yr^*^>^ /V \r\./ '^ V V =, 1952 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 6/ 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 73 80 3} a . 11010090- 14 -Hi 86 87 881989 NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates. Current data for these series are shown on page 60. IICII DECEMBER 1989 11 CYCLICAL INDICATORS COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A2. Leading Index Components 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours) 5, Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (thousands—inverted scale) ul 10C-! 8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (bil. dol.)! 32. Vendor performance—slower defceries diffusion index (percent) 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.) 195253 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 09 70 71 7? 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 61, 64, and 66, 12 DECEMBER 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued July May P T 29. (tew private housing units authorized by to; hiilrEno nermifc rtnrimr 1<)fi7 = 1flftt ndustries, smoothed1 (bl. dot.) /v 99. Change in sensitive materials L.L.L 19. Stock prices, 500 106. Money supply MM 1982 dollars 83. Index of consider expectations2 (Mex: 1st Q 1966=100) 195253 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989 1 This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada. This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center. Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 69, 71, and 97. 2 BCII DECEMBER 1989 13 CYCLICAL INDICATORS COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A3. Coincident Index Components 120-i 110100- 41. Employees on nonagricutural payrolls (millions) 90- fcZcl ;' 51. Personal income UK transfer payments in 1982 dollars (m rate, bil.dd.) C,C,Cl 47. Industrial production fodex: 1977=100) P 57. Manufacturing and trade sates in 1952 53 54 55 56 57 58 5'-! tv:i 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 T' •^ 86 S7 881989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 63, and 65. 14 DECEMBER 1989 BCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS A COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A4. Lagging Index Components 91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale) 77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sates in 1982 dollars (ratio) |Lg,Lg,Lg| "" \y A. £ 1.8- » 3££ 10 1.71.6« 1.4 J 62. Change in index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing, smoothed1 (aim, rate, percent) 109. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent) 101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.) 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income (percent) 17151311- 120. Change in consumer price index for services, smoothed1 (ann. rate, percent) |Lg,Lg,Lg| 1952 53 54 55 56 57 J /I 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989 'This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada. Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 73, and 97. BCII DECEMBER 1989 15 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment [Marginal Employment Adjustments| 1. Average weekly hour* of production or nonsupervisory vff ers, manufacturing (hoji»; 1 |u,L 21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nonsupervisory wflrkers, manufacturing (hours) JJTS* 5: Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insu ; State programs (thousands—inverted scale) [i c,L 60. Ratio, helpof persons 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 isini in newspapers to (rae°) I L.LJ.U 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 61. 16 DECEMBER 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Continued " |-f 200- [Comprehensive Employment | , YtM JT^ m Si ^^^ Jp, x" /^' " -f^ 4K*jfinployee hours in nonajricultural establishments — >;>,' (am. rate, Wl hours): IB c nl 190- 180170« 120 115 110 105100' 95' 42. Persons enpged in nonagricuttural activities (millions) S^ "*&**... ':•' '• [W] .-"-1 J 90' 85' \ ,1- 41. Employees on nonagricultural tells (trillions) •t,'. !• 65 27-1 40. Eirptoyees on nonagricultural payrolls, goods-producing industries (millions) 26' 25 24' 23' 22' 63 62 Uil 90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (percent). r ^ y. ~*S\/ 6160 59 58 5756 55 (i- 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 ilO 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 61 and 62. DECEMBER 1989 17 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Continued I Comprehensive Unemployment | 37. Number of persons unemployed (millions—inverted scale) ^j /wA X ll.Lg.Ul 5- 7- 91113- 43. Unemployment rate (percent—inverted scale) \ I-.U.U \ 567- A/****/" 891011- 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (percent—inverted scale) 2. V: 3- f 456 7 91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale) 10121416182022- 44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent—inverted scale) 0- IH.U.UI 2- \ 1962 63 64 65 i- 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 8i 82 3- 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 62. 18 DECEMBER 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B2. Production and Income I Comprehensive Output and Income] f 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q (arm. rate, bil. dot.) < 52. Personal income in 1982 dollars (am. rate, oil. dol.) cioc 30002800- 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dotos (am. rate, \" 2600- : I 24002200- 53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing, and construction (ann. rate, bil. doL) 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 73 74 ?8 79 80 81 8? 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 63. BCD DECEMBER 1989 19 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B2. Production and Income—Continued Jan. July P T July P Nov. T I Industrial Production production (index: 1977=100) /^ table manufactures 74. Industrial production, nondurable (index: 1977=100) fill of goods output in 1982 dollars, Q [Capacity Utilization 82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (percent) 84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (percent) 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 64. 20 DECEMBER 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries 8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (Ml. dol.) 25. Change in manufceturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries T7 fhil iW-Mm BliHinoauff fl-term'* . . . ' - . . : &ii (ML del; MCD moving avg.-4-term) 500 • 450 ' 400 • 350 • 300 • 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries 250 • 200 • 150 • 100 J 32. Vendor performance—slower deliveries diffusion index (percent) 100 1 7550- 25 • 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 Current data for these series are shown on page 64. ItCII DECEMBER 1989 70 77 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 21 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued P T P T | Consumption and Trade | 57. Manufacturing aid tade sates in 1982 dollars (bil. dd.) Eel \ 56. Manufacturing and trade sate in current dollars (MLdoL) j^cl X 75. Industrial production, consumer goods (index: II7I-100) fclcl 59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars (bil. doL) 54. Sales of retail stores IB current dollars (bil. dot) 55. Personal conwinption expendhwesT automobites, Q (am. rate, ML dol.) 58. Index of consumer sentiment1 (1st Q 1966=100) V 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 "Thit it a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center. Current data for these series are shown on page 65. 22 DECEMBER 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment I Formation of Business Enterprises! 12. Net business formation (index: 1967=100) 01 13. New business incorporations (thousands) L [Business Investment Commitments| 10. Contracts and orders for pferrt and equipment in current dollars P. dol) n 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars (bit. dol.) 27. Manufacturers' new orders in capital goods industries (bil. dol.) 24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondefense capital goods industries {bil doi.) 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and Industrial bailings (mil. sq. ft. of floor space; MCD moving avg.-5-term)1 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 1 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66. KCII DECEMBER 1989 23 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued [Business Investment Commitments—Con.] 97. Backlog «f capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing _/ corporations, Q (Ml. dol.) 2 5 110100908070- ±L 60555045403530252015- ll. Newly approved capftal appropriatioiB, 1,000 manufacturing corporations, Q (bil. dd.) y.L.u 10 J 100. Expendtures n 1982 (Wars tor new plant and equipment. Q (am, m, ML dot) I Business Investment Expenditures 61. Expenditures in current daps for new plant and equipment, Q (am. 69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (am. rate, U. «|) [c±t 76. Industrial production, business equipment Ondex: 1977=100) 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67. 24 DECEMBER 1989 KCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued | Business Investment Expenditures—Co Gross private nonresktential fix [Residential Construction Commitmentsaftd Investment| '.y&kl units started (am. rate, millions) New private housing unrts (index: »=100) Ofc local building permits W. Gross private 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 67. DECEMBER 1989 25 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment | Inventory Investment] 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars, Q (am. rate, bil. dot.) XI 36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars (an. rate, bil. dot.; moving avg.-4-term1) + 90 -i 60- 31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories (m rate, bil. doL; MCD moving avg.—6-term) 38. Change in manufactured inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order (ML del; MCD moving avg.—4-term) 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 05 86 87 88 1989 1 This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. Current data for these series are shown on page 68. 26 DECEMBER 1989 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued I Inventories on Hand and on Order I 70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1982 dollars (HI dd.) 71. Manufacturing and trade inventories in current dollars (biL dol.) |Lg,Lg,Lg| 65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods |Lg,Lg.Lg 77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars 78. Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order (bil. del) HT Z 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 7} /3 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 8-1 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 68. BCI» DECEMBER 1989 27 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS— Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits 98. Change in producer prices for sensitive crude ax) intermediate materials i (percent; MCD. moving avg.—6-tem) [[JJ] [ Sensitive Commodity Prices | I Ji .aftfa i 99. Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed' (percent) A J . ..'>.. i i - . . . 5UT /L 23. Spot market prices, raw industrial materials2 (index: 1967=100). [uiul [Stock Prices | 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10) 18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars, Q (ann.rate,M.dol.) [IJJ1 " [Profits and Profit Margins 16. Corporate profits after taxjn current dollars, Q (am. rate, bil. doL) fiTi\ 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 79 30 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 ' This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada. Beginning with data for June 1981, this is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Current data for these series are shown on page 69. 2 28 DECEMBER 1989 ltd) CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued 4£r • llHJBts and Profit Margms-^Con with IVA and CCAdj in 80. Corporate profits 79. Corporate profits after tax with RfA and CCAdj in current dollars, Q (am. rate, Ml. dot) after \n to corporate domestic income, u (percent) 81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj to corporate domestic income, Q (percent) I u LL of sates, manufacturing corporations, Q (cents) 26. Ratio, implicit price de|aw fe unit labor cost, nonfarm business SWtor.Q (index: 35. Corporate net cash flow in ^2 dollars, Q (am. rale, bil. dol.) 34. Corporate net cash flow In current dollars, Q idle, UN. uui.; i i l l 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70. IICII DECEMBER 1989 29 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued [Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share] ,X 63. Unit labor cost, business sector, Q (index: 1977=100) L L i 68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of goss domestic product in 1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations, Q (dollars) 62. Labor cost per unit $ output, manufacturing (in*,: 1977-MI). r 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income, H 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 81 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 70. 30 DECEMBER 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit 85. Change in money supply Ml (percent; MCP moving avg.—6-term) 102. Change in money supply M2 (percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term) (percent; MCD moving avg.—6-tenn) |L 106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (Ml dol.) 107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml, Q (ratio) |c,c,cl 7.57.0- ^~~Jk 6.56.05.55.0- 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (ratio) ^^A . jf w»- 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 1.501.451.401.351.30- ' 1.251.20- 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 71. DECEMBER 1989 31 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued [Credit Flows I 33. Net Change in mortgage and Me insurance by financial institutions rate, bil. dol) '•if 112; Net change in business bans (am. rate, ML dot.; MCD moving avg.~P»«n) 113. Net change in consumer installment credit (am. rate, bil. dol MCD moving avg.—6-terar)" |£[ 111. Change in business and consumer (am. ratei percent) 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72. 32 DECEMBER 1989 KCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued | Credit Difficulties J 14. Current labilities of business failures (mil. dol. scale; MCD moving avg.—6-terni) Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over inverted scate) 93. Free reserves (bil. dol.—inverted scale) L,U,U 94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve (bil. doO H<62 6.s 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 .'1 J'A 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 72. ItCII DECEMBER 1989 33 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued [interest Rates! 119, Federal funds rate (percent) if 114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (percent, |C,Lg.U| 116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (Percent) |Le,Lg,Lg lib. Yield on long-term treasury MUMS (percent) 118. Secondary market yields on nw mortgages (percent; 117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-oond average (percent) 1962 63 64 65 6<> 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 7'.) 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73. 34 DECEMBER 1989 KCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued [Interest Rates—Con. 109. Overate prime rate charged by banks (percent) 67. Bank rates on short-tern business loans, 0 (percent) [Outstanding Debt I 101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982 eWlart (WLdd.) V fffi551\ 72. Commercial and industrial torn outstanding in current 66. Consumer installment credrt outstandmg (ML dot) 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income (percent) 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 73. ltd) DECEMBER 1989 35 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes Dec. P Hov T 950. Si* Jan. July July New P T P T leading wkatw components (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. y\m '&•:.- iw.\ Ajnfc < / \h«.L-iT'l I'Tttmrai. coincident indraW components (6-mo. span—, ig indicator compomnts (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. Birr iLu/fui w . afl«f 961. Avaf«| weekly hours of production or nonsupenrisory workers, maifcjrinr industries (9-tno. span—, 1-mo. span-—) mM declining;; 9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—-) 963. Employees on private (6-mo. man—, 1 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 7G 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 74. 36 DECEMBER 1989 t!€l» CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes—Continued 964. (Manufacturers' new orders, 34-35 durable goods industries *"" span—, | Percent rising] lOO-i 50- 0-1 flewly approved capital appropriations in 1982 dollars, 17 - inanufacturing indusWes (4-Q moving avg«*«, 1-Q span***) ' ' ' ' 966. fctdustrial production, 24 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—-) lOO-i 50- 967. Spot market prices, p raw industrial materials (9-mo. span—, 1-rno. span—-) :. , lOO-i 50- J968. StocK prices, SOU common stocks, 33-82 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—) 100-1 50- O- 1 960. Net profits, manufacturing, about 600 companies1 (4-Q span) 90-i 807060- V 5040- 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 '/"> /i 74 75 76 77 78 79 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 i This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Current data for these series are shown on page 75. ItCII DECEMBER 1989 37 CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes—Continued Actual Anticipated Actual Anticipated •• .*. .• / 970. Expenditures for new plant and f: equipment, 21 Industries (1-Q span) (a) Actirf expenditures 974. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1 975. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1 (c) Earty projections 971. New orders, manufacturing (4-Qspan)1 976. Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q span)1 lOO-i 90- 70- 972. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1 977. Selling prices, wholesale trade (4-Q span)1 90 n 100- 80- 90- 70- 80- 60- 70- ^f^f 50-1 60- 1 1 978. Selling prices, retail trade (4-Q span) 974 Net sates, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span) lOO-i 90807060- 1978 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 1990 1978 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 1990 i This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives. Current data for these series are shown on page 76. 38 DECEMBER 1989 BCD CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart C3. Rates of Change | Percent change at annual rate I 1-month spans 3-nwnth spans 910c. Composite Index of eleven leading indicators 920c. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators Ill + 30-1 + 20+ 100-10-20- 930c. Composite index of seven lagging indicators 47c. Index of industrial production 50c. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (1-Q span) 0-10- 48c. Employee hours in nonagricuRural establishments 51c. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dotes 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index— Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series were published. ItCIt DECEMBER 1989 39 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Chart Al. GNP and Personal Income 550050004500400035003000- 200. Gross national product in current dollars, Q (arm. rate, bil. dol.) 25002000- 1500- 223. Personal income in current dollars (am.rate,Ml. dol.) \ \ 1000-1 224. Disposable personal income in current dollars, Q (am. rate, bil. dol.) 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.) 450040003500 - 213. Final sates in 1982 dollars, Q (am. rate, oil. dol.) 3000 25002000- 225. Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bit dol.) 1500- 217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q (am. rate, ihous. dol.) 1816141210- 227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars, Q (am. rate, thous. dol.) 1962 6,3 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 75 76 77 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80. 40 DECEMBER 1989 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures Dec. P Mov. T Jan. July F T July P Nov. T 81 82 Personal consumption expendtures— 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 80 and 81. KCII DECEMBER 1989 41 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment Dec P Nov. T No: P Mi ! I Annual rate, biondobrs (current) | 900800700- Gross private domestic investment— 600500400- 240. Total, Q -5 300- 200 J 242. Rued investment, Q 245. Change in business inventories, 0 Annual rate, blondolars (1982)1 30. Cninf* to misiness inventories, Q 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 81. 42 DECEMBER 1989 IICII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services | Annual rate, falon doiars (current)] Government purchases of goods and sarvices- 300- 200- 266. State and local fovetixient, Q 100- | Annual rate, biondolars (1982) I 267. State mi local government, Q 300- 200- 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 81. ItCII DECEMBER 1989 43 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A5. Foreign Trade Dec. Nov. P T Annual rate, bBon doiars (current)| of goods and services, Q 253. Imports of goods and services, Q 250. Net exports of goods and services, Q Annual rate, Hfon doiars (1982) of goods and services, Q 256. Exports of goods and services, Q 255. Net exports of goods and services, Q 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 76 n 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 82. 44 DECEMBER 1989 ItUI OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A6. National Income and Its Components ftnnual rate, blon dolars (current) |. 280. Compensation of employees, Q Corporate profits before tax with i and capital consumption adj 282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption aaiusmwms 20- . Rental income of persons v«8i capital consumption adjustment, Q 10- 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 /O 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 82. IICI) DECEMBER 1989 45 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A7. Saving Annual rate, Mon ddars (current) 60- 40-1 298. Government surplus or deficit, Q + 200- -20-40-60- lO-i 6- ^VW1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 42-1 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 82 and 83. 46 DECEMBER 1989 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income 70-1 65- 60- 2M. State and local govemmerrt purchases tr of goods and services. Q ' 265. Federal Government purchases of goods aid services, Q gfMWZ^K 11 III ™T«ni Nonresidential feed investment, Q X investment, Q 247, Change in business inventories, Q 251. Net exports of goods and -5 [Percent of National Income! 80n 64. Compensation of employees, Q 75- 70- 65 287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation ,. and capital consumption adjustments, Q 10- 283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, Q Jft 289. Net interest, Q 285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, Q 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 83. KCII DECEMBER 1989 47 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY Chart Bl. Price Movements I Index: 1982=4001 310c, h»lidtpr&deflatfl(|'|tdss I Percent change at annual rate! 310. x, gross domestic business product 311. Fated-weighted price index, 'i 330c. (Ml commodities " 331c. Crude materials for further processing 335. Indmtrial commodities materials, supplies, and components v< J^jjjy +<;u" v r " 333,, Capital equipment + 10^~ iT \-£k ^ _ V *.v 1977 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 1977 78 79 80 r^^S\. 81 82 83 84 85 (Uj 86 87 88 0-in. 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 85, and 86. DECEMBER 1989 BCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Chart Bl. Price Movements—Continued Consumer price indexes— 322c, All urban consumers, food (6-month Chart B2. Wages and Productivity I Index: 1977=1001 341. Real mite hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory private 340, Average hourly earnings of production or on private nonagricuttural payrolls (cu age hourly compensation, all employees, business sector, Q . 345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector. Q (cu 64 65 66 67 68 69 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 1 Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality. Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88. ItCII DECEMBER 1989 49 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued 1 [ Wages—Con. | F ! U_gLcen Change in average hourly ean«ngs of production or nareupervisory workers on private nonagrictftural payrolls'— 1 340c. Current-dollar earnings i ' t I I HO- . JA LUW***^*^ 341c. Real earnings , . t, . +5 HfW 1-month spans2 \ 6-month spans (am. rate) \ ., -5- -10' Change in average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector, Q— * 345c. Current-dollar compensation + 15 d-marter snans + 10 + 5- '*——1-quarter spans (arm. rate) 0- 346c. Real compensation + 10- 1-quarter spans (am. rate) + 50- -5- Negotiated wage and benefit decisions— 348. Average first-year changes, Q (am. rate) 349. Average changes over life of Mndei:1977=IOOI [ Productivity | 358. Output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector, Q 370. Output per hour, all persons, 370c. Change in output per hour, all persons, business sector, Q 1962 63 64 65 66 67 1 71 72 73 74 75 Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality. with the annualized 6-month changes. See page 87 for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88. 50 76 2 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make them comparable DECEMBER 1989 ltd) OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES C I LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Chart Cl. Civilian Labor Force and Major Components 441. Civilian labor force (millions) Cmlian labor force pupation rates (percent)- 451. Hfci 20 years and over 453. Soft sexes 16-19 years of an 451 Females 20 years and over Number unetnptoyed (mllnns) ~ 37. Persons unemployed f 445. Females 20 years and over 444. Mates 20 yean and over 446. Both sexes 16-19 years of age 447. Number unemployed, full-time workers (millions) "•-448. Number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (millions) 1962 63 64 65 66 t? 68 /1 12 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 83 8? 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 89. KCII DECEMBER 1989 51 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES |D| GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Chart Dl. Receipts and Expenditures Dec, Nov. P T rate, bwn (Mars (current) al Government wpeixftures, Q 500. Fedwl iwetnment surplus or deficit, Q and local government receipts, Q—^ 12. State and local government 510. State and local government surplus or 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 90. 52 DECEMBER 1989 BCD OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Chart D2. Defense Indicators 40- [Advance Measures of Defense 3530- 2520- 517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred (bil. dol.; MC8 Moving avg.-6-temi) 15- 22 -. 201816141210- Defense Department prime contract awards (bil. do).; MOD moving avg.-6-term) 6-1 240-, 220200180160- 140120100141210- 6- ufacturers' new orders, defense products dol.; MCD moving avg.—6-term) 1S62 6.: ;>! 65 66 67 68 69 70 /I 72 :i 74 75 76 77 , . 78 79 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 90. !!€!» DECEMBER 1989 53 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES £) I GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued f T I Intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity] - 3 559. ManuhKtwers' inventories, defense products. 18- 14- 18016014012010080- 603430262218- 14- W si ISPs f net outlays, itintfanctionsand military 580. Dafentc assistance (bil dol.) 1098- 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 91. 54 DECEMBER 1989 BCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES— Continued Chart D2. Defense Indicators— Continued I Intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity—Con. | .;' 570. Employment, defense products industries (mfflions) 2.01.81.61.41.21.0- Defense Department personnel (millions)— T 3.53.0- 577. Military personnel on active duty 2.5- 2.01.5- 578. Civilian personnel, direct hire employment : 1.0- 400350300- I National Defense Purchases | 250200- 3w. rWBrai uovornrnem purcnases or gooos ana services, nauonti defense, Q (arm. rate, bH dol.) —— KCA 'ftkjjfr.-r.l ^iliiiliiiiiiiiiil iiililjUtlia'm j*f jfjulA* «Mj4 *A»«jiA«* nittinni&f 150- 100- 50- 565. National defense purchases as a percent of GNP, Q (percent) 10- Jffl 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 7654- 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 91. BUI DECEMBER 1989 55 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES E I U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Chart El. Merchandise Trade 2015- 602. ExpH^xdudng military aid sttpments (Ml. dol.) J^ 7 6 5- 3- 2- 604. Exports of domestic s^iwftiral products (ML dot) \'V t~ 5 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (bil. del.) 45403530 -I 10986- 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (Ml.*' 616. knports of automobiles and parts (bil. dol.) 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 74 75 76 77 78 79 30 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 it'? i'jb Current data for these series are shown on page 92. 56 DECEMBER 1989 KCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements Dec, P Nov T Kess of receipts 750-j 650550- xcess of payments 450- Goods and services— - 350250- - 150- -J 50 J 650550450350250- - 150- 50- 140-1 120- - 100- 80- 60- - 1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 40- 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 93. IICII DECEMBER 1989 57 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Chart Fl. Industrial Production flndex: 1977=1001 [index: 1977=100) Industrial production— bidustrial production— ^ s^* 47. United States >^-«^~-^^ ^y ~-\J-AL liil / ^K/ /^ 140- 140- 130- 130- 721. OECD European countries 120- 120- 110- 110- 100- 100- <m- 90J 180' 170' 160 150 140130- 722. United Kingdom 140 728. Japan 120- 130- 110 - 120 110- 100- 100- 90- 90- 140130120110100- 90 J 90 - u ^» , __ _^*-J*r~ 726, France ^AA*ur^^ 140- 723. Canada 130- 120110 • 160150- 120- ,T 110- 100 - 100- 90 - 90- 1977 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 .1977 78 79 80 81 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on page 94. 58 DECEMBER 1989 ItCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued Chart F2. Consumer Prices Jan. July P T July P Chart F3. Stock Prices Nov T Jan. July P T July Nov. P T 28002400- 200018001600140012001000900800700600500- 1977 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 1977 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989 Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96. DECEMBER 1989 59 CYCLICAL INDICATORS A I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS ^J COMPOSITE INDEXES 910. Index of eleven leading indicators (series 930. Index of seven lagging indicators (series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109, 120) 940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index ' (1982=100) (1982 = 100) (1982 = 100) (1967 = 100) 136.8 137.6 138.1 119.3 121.0 121.0 112.1 110.9 110.7 106.4 109.1 109.3 108.9 (NA) June 138.3 139.2 140.6 121.1 121.2 121.5 110.7 110.8 111.0 July August September 142.0 143.3 142.9 122.4 123.0 123.1 October November December 142.3 140.3 139.7 Year 1, 5, 8, 19, 20, 29, 32, 83, 92, 99, 106) and month (1982 = 100) 920. Index of four roughly coincident indicators (series 41, 4 7 . 5 1 , 5 7 ) Leading indicator subgroups 914. Capital investment commitments (series 12, 20, 29)' 915. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 8, 32, 36, 99) (1967 = 100) 916. Profitability (series 19, 26, 80) (1967 = 100) 917. Money and financial flows (series 104, 106. Ill) (1967 = 100) 1987 January February March 104.4 104.6 105.3 119.3 120.8 121.5 148.9 147.0 145.4 109.4 109.4 109.5 105.3 106.0 106.7 121.3 121.3 122.9 144.5 144.1 145.6 110.8 110.7 111.7 110.5 111.1 110.2 107.1 106.4 106.6 124.9 124.6 126.1 111.8 112.1 111.8 111.7 111.2 112.8 139.3 141.0 141.4 125.2 126.0 126.7 113.4 113.9 114.3 110.4 110.6 110.8 June 142.0 141.8 144.0 126.9 127.2 128.2 114.6 114.5 114.8 July August September 143.0 144.1 143.7 128.6 129.0 129.0 October November December 144.0 144.1 145.1 0)146.0 145.6 144.7 April . . . . M a y . . . . 107.2 107.4 ED108.2 124.2 0)126.0 124.7 144.5 144.2 145.4 121.7 118.6 118.3 147.1 146.8 146.6 107.1 106.7 106.5 119.0 119.5 119.9 146.9 147.9 149.0 110.7 111.1 111.7 105.5 105.6 105.9 119.5 118.9 120.0 0)151.7 150.7 151.1 114.5 115.1 115.2 112.3 112.1 112.0 105.5 105.5 105.6 119.9 119.5 (NA) 150.3 150.1 147.4 130.4 130.3 131.1 115.0 116.4 116.8 113.4 111.9112.2 105.1 104.9 105.6 131.8 132.0 132.0 118.1 119.3 120.1 111.6 110.6 109.9 132.8 132.5 132.8 119.3 120.3 120.5 111.3 110.1 110.2 132.6 [ED133.9 r!33.5 120.0 r!20.1 rl!9.9 110.5 rill. 5 rill. 3 132.9 133.4 120.3 H>3120.8 rllO.5 pllO.4 1988 January February March . . . April May 146.9 146.6 (NA) 1989 January . . . February March April 145.8 144.2 144.0 May June July August September r!44.1 144.8 r!45.0 October November December r!44.5 p!44.7 2 (NA) NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ®. that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by 0); for series that move counter to movements n general business activity, current low values are indicated by 0). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available Graphs of these series are shown on pages 10 and 11. 'These scries readied high values before 1987: series 940 (116.1) in January 1984 and series 914 (111.5) in February 1984. 2 HxcIudes series 57, for whieh data are not a v a i l a b l e . •'Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data arc not a v a i l a b l e . 60 DECEMBER 1989 MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT Minor Economic Process Marginal Employment Adjustments Timing Class Year and month L, L, L 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (Hours) Comprehensive Employment Job Vacancies L, C, L L, C, L 21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs 1 (Hours) (Thous.) U, C, C L, Lg, U L, Lg, U 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to number of persons unemployed 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (Ann. rate, bil. hours) (1967 = 100) (Ratio) 48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments mi January February March 40.9 41.1 41.0 3.6 3.6 3.7 355 350 338 0.512 0.531 0.572 136 140 150 187.54 188.59 188.56 April May June ; 40.6 41,0 41.0 3.5 3.8 3.7 329 325 325 0.583 0.601 0.614 149 153 152 187.66 189.72 189.97 July August September 41.0 41.1 40.6 3.8 3.8 3.7 321 299 293 0.626 0.663 0.661 153 161 158 190.41 191.22 188.29 October November December 41.2 41.2 41.1 3.9 3.9 3.8 294 300 311 0.669 0.682 0.662 162 H)162 155 192.23 192.77 192.93 January February March 41.1 41.0 41.0 3.9 3.7 3.8 348 314 303 0.652 0.673 0.691 153 156 158 193.12 194.48 194.35 April May June 41.2 41.1 41.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 299 305 294 0.701 0.700 0.711 157 160 156 195.81 195.44 196.43 July August September 41.1 41.0 41.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 321 298 290 0.714 0.700 0.688 159 160 153 197.24 196.77 197.53 October November December 41.2 41.2 41.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 [H>290 297 301 i)0.735 0.716 0.731 161 158 161 198.76 198.14 199.16 41.1 41.1 41.0 3.9 3.9 i)4.o 296 303 318 0.691 0.729 0.733 156 155 151 200.31 200.32 200.33 E>41.3 41.0 41.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 299 312 328 0.723 0.707 0.667 159 152 147 202.10 200.85 201.37 July August September 41.0 41.0 r41.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 338 316 320 0.687 0.681 rO.660 150 147 r!46 202.54 201.67 r202.73 October November December 40.8 p40.7 r3.7 p3.7 357 343 rO.685 pO.641 r!5l p!45 r203.42 Dp204.90 1089 Ijoo 1989 January February March April May June See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17. x Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency. 61 CYCLICAL INDICATORS 0 I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS 8HB EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued Minor Economic Process Comprehensive Employment— Continued Timing Class Year and month U,C,C 42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (Thous.) C, C, C 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (Thous.) L,C, U 40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goodsproducing industries (Thous.) Comprehensive Unemployment U, Lg, U 90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (Percent) L, Lg, U L, Lg, U 37. Number of persons unemployed 43. Unemployment rate (Thous.) (Percent) L, Lg, U Lg, Lg, Lg 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs x 91. Average duration of unemployment (Weeks) (Percent) Lg, Lg, Lg 44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (Percent) 1987 January February March 107,823 108,066 108,238 100,798 101,015 101,254 24,473 24,532 24,551 60.28 60.39 60.43 7,904 7,848 7,804 6.6 6.6 6.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 14.9 14.5 15.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 April May . June 108,566 109,180 109,065 101,582 101,777 101,956 24,573 24,617 24,616 60.56 60.90 60.72 7,605 7,578 7,360 6.4 6.3 6.2 2.5 2.4 2.4 15.0 14.8 14.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 July August September 109,377 109,890 109,704 102,293 102,525 102,683 24,701 24,759 24,794 60.83 61.00 60.88 7,271 7,226 7,112 6.1 6.0 5.9 2.3 2.3 2.2 14.2 14.3 14.2 1.6 1.6 1.6 October . . November December 109,998 110,320 110,528 103,213 103,470 103,791 24,896 24,966 25,021 61.01 ,61.09 61.19 7,204 7,067 6,961 6.0 5.9 5.8 2.1 2.1 2.2 14.0 14.1 14.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 January February March 110,799 111,073 110,948 103,970 104,414 104,682 24,935 25,033 25,098 61.29 61.36 61.24 6,980 6,892 6,807 5.8 5.7 5.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 14.2 14.1 13.8 1.4 April May June 111,473 111,293 111,880 104,901 105,091 105,561 25,161 25,179 25,265, 61.49 61.31 61.58 6,668 6,800 6,523 5.5 5.6 5.4 2.1 2.1 2.1 13.5 13.8 13.2 1.3 1.3 July August September 111,974 112,061 112,194 105,768 105,954 106,207 25,323 25,303 25,313 61.54 61.60 61.64 6,624 6,797 6,614 5.4 5.6 5.4 2.1 2.1 2.0 13.5 13.5 13.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 October November December 112,335 112,709 112,816 106,475 106,824 107,097 25,384 25,460 25,513 61.69 •61.85 61.83 6,518 6,563 6,554 5.3 5.4 5.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 13.4 12.6 12.8 1.3 1.2 1.2 January February March 113,411 113,630 113,930 107,442 107,711 107,888 25,626 25,629 25,646 62.13 62.16 62.27 6,716 6,328 1)6,128 5.4 5.1 1)5. 0 2.0 2.1 2.1 12.7 12.1 12.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 April May . . June 114,009 114,102 114,445 108,101 108,310 108,607 25,671 25,672 25,648 62.22 62.22 D62.35 6,546 6,395 6,561 5.3 5.2 5.3 2.1 E>2.0 2.1 12.7 11.8 1.2 1.1 E>1.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 12.0 11.3 11.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 2.2 2.2 11.8 11.7 1.1 1.2 1988 1.4 1.4 1.3 1989 July August September October November December . . . . . . . 114,240 114,290 114,199 108,767 108,887 r!09,096 25,669 0)25,694 r25,614 62.26 62.28 62.16 6,497 6,421 6,584 5.2 5.2 5.3 114,327 1)114,644 r!09,189 [H)pl09,399 r25,607 p25,604 62.16 62.24 6,561 6,729 5.3 5.4 B>11.1 See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 15, 17, and 18. x Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency. 62 DECEMBER 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS JJIJ PRODUCTION AND INCOME Minor Economic Process Timing Class Year and month Comprehensive Output and Income ' C,C,C C.C.C 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) C.C.C 52. Constant (1982) dollars 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. do!,) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Personal income 223. Current dollars Industrial Production C, C, C 53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, mfg., and construction (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) C,C,C 47. Index of industrial production (1977 = 100) C,C,C 73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures (1977 = 100) C, L, L 74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures (1977 = 100) C,C,C 49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1987 January . February March 3,783!6 3,640.8 3,680.2 3,699.8 3,109.1 3,129.4 3,132.8 2,650.6 2,670.7 2,675.2 542.4 541.6 544.6 126.2 127.1 127.4 129.3 130.8 131.5 132.7 132.9 133.7 1, 6 2 2 ^ 6 April May June 3,823^5 3,718.5 3,734.1 3,745.4 3,132.7 3,132.6 3,129.0 2,674.8 2,670.5 2,670.9 538.5 540.3 540.4 127.4 128.2 129.1 130.9 131.4 132.0 134.6 135.7 136.9 1,645^9 July . August September 3,872.*8 3,770.5 3,798.7 3,817.4 3,144.7 3,152.4 3,152.3 2,685.9 2,695.7 2,696.5 541.3 544.3 547.0 130.6 131.2 131.0 133.5 133.8 133.7 138.5 138.8 138.6 1, 679.1 October November December 3,935.*6 3,894.3 3,886.8 3,944.9 3,205.2 3,188.5 3,236.2 2,748.8 2,733.2 2,779.3 549.4 551.8 552.1 132.5 133.2 133.9 136.8 136.7 137.3 138.1 139.6 .141.3. 1,728^5 January February March 3,974!8 3,921.9 3,944.2 3,979.5 3,209.4 3,225.0 3,240.6 2,741.2 2,755.9 2,767.1 551.3 553.9 561.5 134.4 134.4 134.7 137.9 138.4 138.8 141.4 141.1 141.7 1,746 ".7 April May June 4,010.7 4,007.1 4,023.3 4,049.4 3,244.6 3,244.6 3,260.4 2,773.4 2,776.2 2,791.2 558.8 558.0 561.5 135.4 136.1 136.5 139.7 141.5 141.7 142.3 142.1 142.6 1,767^9 July August .. September 4 ,042 .*7 4,079.8 4,094.2 4,118.6 3,271.7 3,275.4 3,276.5 2,802.0 2,805.0 2,808.2 562.4 560.9 562.8 138.0 138.5 138.6 142.9 143.2 143.8 144.6 145.1 145.3 l,782.'i October November December 4,069^4 4,180.4 4,168.9 4,206.3 3,312.5 3,298.2 •3,314.7 2,843.3 2,828.6 2,845.3 569.0 565.5 563.9 139.4 139.9 140.4 144.6 145.2 145.7 146.3 146.7 147.1 1,789^4 January February March 4,106.8 4,273.1 4,319.5 4,360.7 3,346.2 3,377.2 3,390.9 2,868.0 2,897.0 2,905.5 566.1 566.7 572.3 140.8 140.5 140.7 146.2 145.9 145.8 148.5 148.1 148.6 1,823^2 April May June •4,1321.5 4,387.1 4,396.3 4,417.5 3,390.3 3,384.4 3,398.1 2,908.2 2,902.8 2,912.8 566.4 563.4 565.3 141.7 141.6 142.0 146.9 147.1 147.4 149.6 149.5 150.5 1,843°.9 H>r4,162.'9 r4,443.7 r4,456.9 r4, 467.1 r3,407.7 r3,420.5 r3,420.4 r2,922.6 r2, 932.1 r2,930.2 566.3 570.2 r569.6 141.9 !>rl42.5 r!42.1 146.8 H)rl47.8 rl.46.9 150.8 r!51.1 r!51.2 Drl,85i'.3 r4,503.2 [H>p4, 541.0 r3, 427.1 E>p3,442.8 r2,937.4 IR>p2,949.7 0)r572.5 p567.9 r!41.3 p!41.5 r!44.3 p!45.1 K>rl52.0 p!51.7 1988 1989 July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40. !!€!» DECEMBER 1989 63 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Minor Economic Process Timing Class H PRODUCTION AND INCOME-Continued CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES Capacity Utilization Orders and Deliveries L, L, L L, C, U L, C, U 82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing 84. Capacity utilization rate, materials Year and month Manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries 6. Current dollars (Percent) (Percent) L, L, L 7. Constant (1982) dollars (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) L, L, L 8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials (Bil. dol.) L, L, L 25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries i (Bil. dol.) L, Lg, U 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (Bil. dol.) L, L, L 32. Vendor performanceslower deliveries diffusion index l (Percent) 1987 January February March 79.6 80.0 80.3' 78.7 78.7 78.7 97.34 102.40 104.78 89.79 94.46 96.40 79.68 84.09 84.78 -3.28 -1.26 1.19 367.42 366.16 367.35 51.5 51.2 51.9 April May June 80.2 80.4 80.8 79.1 79.3 79.8 107.64 107.92 108.77 98.93 99.01 99.70 83.76 83.48 85.66 4.55 5.26 4.24 371.90 377.16 381.40 52.8 54.0 56.8 July August September 81.5 81.5 81.3 80.6 81.1 81.2 109.94 106.99 109.68 100.40 97.44 99.34 84.02 83.84 85.98 6.04 2.58 1.30 387.44 390.02 391.32 58.9 60.3 61.5 October November December 82.0 82.2 82.6 82.1 82.9 83.6 112.02 111.96 113.19 101.28 100.96 101.61 86.81 85.89 86.86 3.71 3.67 2.01 395.04 398.71 400.72 62.2 64.9 62.7 January February March 82.7 82.6 82.7 83.0 82.3 82.4 113.07 114.16 113.06 100.86 101.56 100.41 83.26 85.42 85.34 3.94 4.33 0.32 404.66 408.99 409.31 62.4 61.3 56.9 April May June 82.9 83.3 83.3 82.9 83.0 83.2 116.84 115.37 125.44 103.39 101.74 110.23 85.73 87.82 87.78 4.32 0.62 8.92 413.62 414.24 423.16 59.2 56.6 65.6 July August September 84.0 84.0 84.0 84.4 84.3 84.1 116.11 122.81 119.32 101.67 107.25 103.58 85.15 87.58 87.98 2.99 4.94 1.29 426.15 431.09 432.38 59.0 57.7 55.1 October November December 84.3 84.4 84.4 84.7 D85.1 84.9 122.79 123.04 D 132. 15 106.50 106.25 D113.63 87.86 89.81 [H>92.68 4.35 3.16 7.97 436.73 439.90 447.87 54.6 51.6 52.6 H>84.7 84.3 84.1 84.6 84.0 83.7 128.48 124.11 125.38 109.81 105.71 106.61 90.76 89.02 86.32 4.90 3.18 4.94 452.77 455.95 460.90 54.0 53.3 51.2 84.5 84.3 84.4 84.2 83.8 83.6 129.37 123.52 125.14 110.01 104.68 105.69 89.69 87.82 86.81 6.04 0.56 3.42 466.94 467.50 470.92 53.2 49.3 47.5 July August September 84.0 r84.2 83.7 83.7 r83.9 r83.5 122.03 126.77 r!25.23 r!03.15 107.07 r!05.06 r82.82 90.68 r87.85 4.92 -1.58 rO.83 475.83 474.25 r475.09 46.9 44.9 43.8 October November December 82.8 p82.7 83.2 p82.9 r!24.35 p!30.68 r!04.41 p!09.63 r87.58 p89.54 r2.44 p6.98" r477.53 [H)p484.51 42.7 42.5 1988 1989 January February March April May June See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 21. lr These series reached high values before 1987: series 25 (9.31) in March 1984 and series 32 (67.5) in November 1983. 64 DECEMBER 1989 liCi CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Minor Economic Process Formation of Business Enterprises Consumption and Trade Timing Class C, C, C c, c, c Manufacturing and trade sales Year and month FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES— Continued 56. Current dollars (Mil. dol.) 57. Constant (1982) dollars (Mil. dol.) C, L, C 75, Index of industrial production, consumer goods C, L, U U, L,U Sales of retail stores 54. Current dollars (Mil. dol.) (1977 = 100) 59. Constant (1982) dollars (Mil. dol.) L, C T C L, L, L L, L, L 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles 58. Index of consumer sentiment 1 2 12. Index of net business formation (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L, L, L 13. Number of new business incorporations 1 ® (IstQ 1966 = 100) (1967 = 100) (Number) 1987 January February March 424,210 441,092 441,073 419,538 433,469 431,581 125.5 126.4 126.7 117,819 124,126 124,455 109,294 114,507 114,179 11SL5 90.4 90.2 90.8 118.1 120.5 122.0 55,348 58,495 60,248 April May June 442,281 445,174 448,931 431,209 432,439 433,700 125.5 127.3 127.2 125,353 125,520 127,263 114,478 114,317 115,274 .129.'3 92.8 91.1 91.5 120.7 119.8 120.3 57,471 56,226 57,613 July August September 450,906 455,157 460,280 434,938 437,381 440,943 128.9 129.4 127.7 128,110 130,390 129,427 115,937 117,574 116,391 145.8 93.7 94.4 93.6 120.4 121.5 122.8 57,330 57,650 57,568 October November December 460,066 459,261 462,059 439,739 437,546 439,273 129.0 129.4 129.8 128,235 128,541 129,870 115,112 115,180 116,267 132.0 89.3 83.1 86.8 121.8 122.8 123.2 55,504 56,681 55,226 January February March 462,173 466,052 474,260 439,102 442,538 448,078 131.2 131.3 131.2 130,364 131,846 133,797 116,709 118,036 119,249 143.' 6 90.8 91.6 94.6 124.0 124.1 125.4 56,108 56,475 60,655 April May June 475,218 478,467 486,226 446,585 447,726 451,956 131.9 132.7 133.0 133,077 134,003 135,060 118,081 118,482 119,311 145.7 91.2 94.8 94.7 122.7 124.3 123.7 54,670 58,046 55,620 July August September 486,289 491,892 491,565 449,198 452,694 450,672 134.2 135.0 134.8 135,741 135,800 135,421 119,490 119,227 118,375 140 ! 9 93.4 97.4 97.3 123.3 124.5 124.2 56,915 59,730 r55,915 October November December r498,635 r501,391 506,186 r456 9 109 r456,929 459,688 136.4 136.8 138.2 r!38 9 259 r!39,520 139,189 r!20,435 r!21,427 120,719 146^6 94.1 93.0 91.9 124.6 123.2 125.5 56,557 54,530 58,516 January February March 511,881 507,328 507,555 458,846 454,219 451,603 138.5 138.7 138.4 140,040 139,428 139,516 120,724 120,300 119,756 142.7 97.9 95.4 94.3 125.5 125.9 0)128.0 58,499 58,724 60,133 April May June 517,745 518,088 515,695 458,774 457,465 456,223 139.5 139.2 D139.9 141,413 142,543 142,500 120,351 120,902 120,865 144,5 91.5 90.7 90.6 125.0 125.6 125.9 55,245 57,738 57,536 July August September 511,144 |H)526,290 r522,760 r45 1,983 0)r466,307 r462,699 138.7 r!39.3 138.9 143,555 144,860 |H)rl45,293 121,657 123,390 E)rl23,548 E>rl50.'9 92.0 89.6 95.8 124.4 r!24.0 r!22.8 54,478 r56,642 p54,502 October November December p519,226 (NA) p457,690 (NA) r!39.5 p!39.2 r!43,358 p!44,557 r!21,387 p!21,989 93.9 90.9 r!23.4 p!23.6 (NA) 1988 . 1989 See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 22, and 23. lr These series reached high values before 1987: series 58 (101.0) in March 1984 and series 13 (65,318) in December 1986. This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center. 2 65 CYCLICAL INDICATORS BI CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS jm FIXED CAPITAL IIWESTMENT-Continued Minor Economic Process Timing Class Business Investment Commitments 1,1,1. LL, L Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods industries Contracts and orders for plant and equipment Year and month 20. Constant (1982) dollars 10. Current dollars (Bil. dol.) L, L, L L, L,L (Bil. dol.) 27. Constant (1982) dollars 24. Current dollars (Bil. dol.) , (Bil. dol.) L, C, U U, Lg, U 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings1 2 Square feet of floor space (Millions) Square meters of floor space 3 (Millions) 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Bil. dol.) C, Lg, Lg 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Bil. dol.) 1987 January February March 31.78 31.99 31.99 35.45 36.31 36.21 27.20 27.28 26.88 31.40 32.18 31.73 82.42 73.52 77.97 7.66 6.83 7.24 21^44 April May June 33.63 34.90 35.47 38.58 39.88 40.28 28.73 30.63 29.75 34.29 36.16 35.30 79.93 78.82 83.17 7.43 7.32 7.73 32 '.26 July August September 37.49 35.01 34.52 42.82 40.28 40.00 32.28 29.85 29.39 38.32 35.82 35.57 83.00 83.56 84.70 7.71 7.76 7.87 29 '.56 82.21 76.89 81.64 7.64 7.14 7.58 35.91 69.17 74.64 74^55 35.60 35.44 38.27 41.11 40.29 42.96 30.22 30.66 33.03 36.45 36.19 38.44 January February March 38.31 39.54 36.82 43.68 44.64 41.78 33.87 33.82 31.92 39.89 39.79 37.65 77.27 91.15 75.85 7.18 8.47 7.05 30^85 April May June 38.95 36.29 40.68 44.85 41.88 46.20 33.75 31.52 35.46 40.45 37.85 41.78 71.02 71.69 75.36 6.60 6.66 7.00 4o!69 July August September 41.18 44.39 39.82 46.51 49.91 44.12 36.21 38.81 34.86 42.35 45.25 39.99 79.51 75.38 73.37 7.39 7.00 6.82 40 '.38 October November December 39.34 r40.48 43.67 44.09 r44.94 47.97 34.62 35.82 39.43 40.16 41.07 44.44 70.06 69.90 78.53 6.51 6.49 7.30 45 '.28 January February March 45.03 41.48 42.64 49.10 44.81 47.67 40.35 37.19 38.14 45.24 41.31 44.02 78.61 70.87 71.37 7.30 6.58 6.63 K>p5o;6i April May June 44.55 41.90 44.07 48.87 46.30 48.00 40.39 37.29 39.15 45.48 42.54 43.98 69.66 75.44 78.18 6.47 7.01 7.26 July August September E>45.99 41.68 r40.68 D49.92 46.81 r46.61 D41.44 37.13 r35.34 ED 46. 22 43.14 r42.31 77.79 66.89 85.52 7.23 6.21 7.94 October November December r40.99 p43.18 r45.94 p47.80 r35.99 p38.99 r41.91 p44.43 74.73 64.06 6.94 5.95 October November December 78.06 1988 78'.71 87^46 9l!57 100^20 1989 [H>pll4'.55 (NA) (NA) See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24. lr This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. 2Series 9 reached its high value (93.19 square feet and 8.66 square meters) in September 1985. Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 66 DECEMBER 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Jill FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued Minor Economic Process Timing Class C, Lg, Lg C, Lg, Lg Expenditures for new plant and equipment Year and month Residential Construction Commitments and Investment Business Investment Expenditures 61. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bii. dot.) 100. Constant (1982) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) C, Lg, Lg 69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) C, Lg, U 76. Index of industrial production, business equipment (1977 = 100) C, Lg, C Lg, Lg, Lg C, Lg, C 28. New private housing units startedr Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars 86. Total (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 87. Structures 1 L, L, L 88. Producers' durable equipment L, L, L 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits 1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, thous.) (1967 = 100) L, L, L 89. Gross private residential fixed investment in 1982 dollars1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1987 January February March 377.09 380 '.62 381.31 391.14 387.97 138.6 141.7 141.9 430.9 120.1 310.7 1,840 1,787 1,715 134.8 134.7 135.9 197! 3 April May June 380 ! 08 383 !55 394.77 393.41 402.62 142.1 141.7 144.2 445^6 117°.7 327 '.9 1,622 1,607 1,583 127.7 119.6 121.4 197 '.8 July August September 393.05 40ll6l 412.10 410.61 424.92 145.6 145.6 146.3 472 '.8 125 !5 347 '.3 1,592 1,587 1,685 120.9 120.5 120.7 192.1 October November December 403°.% 41l!67 416.91 417.04 423.21 148.7 148.3 149.8 472 '.7 125.7 347 '.6 1,535 1,659 1,391 115.4 116.2 107.3 191.*9 January February March 413.34 417!63 432.80 432.06 438.93 151.2 152.4 153.3 483 '. 6 121.8 361.8 1,391 1,511 1,528 100.8 115.2 119.6 189.1 April May June 427^54 431.35 445.06 454.15 456.32 154.6 156.9 158.1 497.8 122.5 375.1 1,576 1,392 1,463 114.1 115.5 118.4 194.'2. July August September 435*.61 436.04 458.73 463.23 463.95 159.3 160.2 160.8 501.°6 123.0 378.0 1,478 1,459 1,463 113.6 116.9 114.2 195 !l October November December 442. ii 433^1 463.94 462.23 465.80 160.2 161.2 162.6 492.7 121.4 371.3 1,532 1,567 1,577 121.7 120.3 121.1 198*. 1 January February March 459!47 451.35 475.20 475.31 485.30 163.8 165.0 1,66.3 5oi'.6 12i'.l 379'.9 1,678 1,465 1,409 118.5 111.9 195*.6 April May June 470^86 r463*.49 487.01 487.06 490.84 167.8 169.1 169.6 511.4 1>484.93 D476.92 484.04 |H>509.02 r504.04 ra485.45 (2) ra476.84 (3) 1988 19S9 July August September October November December p486.27 (NA) 168.5 Drl69.9 . [H>r517!9 r!68.7 r!64.1 p!66.2 98.1 118.1 393.2 1 S 343 1 S 308 1,406 106.4 107.4 104.3 189.3 r!20.4 E>r397.6 1,420 1,329 rl,264 102.2 105.9 105.2 r!84*.8 rl,428 pl,361 108.1 107.0 See note on page 60. graphs of these series are showsi on pages 13, 24, and 25. 1 These series reached high values before 1987: series 87 (151.4) in 2d Q 1985, series 28 (2,260) and series 29 (158.5) in February 1984, and series 89 (200.3) in 4th Q 1986. Anticipated expenditures for 1990: 1st quarter, 503.46; 2d quarter, 518.27. Anticipated expenditures for 1990: 1st quarter, 491.41; 2d quarter, 503.86. 1989 67 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS |H INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT Minor Economic Process Timing Class . . . . . . Year and month Inventories on Hand and on Order Inventory Investment L, L, L 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars 1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L, L, L 1, L, L 36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars1 Smoothed 2 Actual (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L, L, L 38. Change in mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order (Bil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Manufacturing and trade inventories 71. Current dollars (Bil. dol.) 70. Constant (1982) dollars (Bil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg 65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods (Bil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg L, Lg, Lg 77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars1 78. Mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order (Ratio) (Bil. dol.) 1987 January February March is!i April May June 15\3 16.15 -2.36 1.92 64.1 21.3 35.1 -1.06 -0.59 32.38 0.48 9.83 14.81 47.64 35.65 16.59 23.99 32.16 26.7 69.3 34.0 1.82 659.20 660.97 663.90 644.61 644.61 645.70 103.41 103.02 103.23 1.54 1.49 1.50 236.33 235.74 237.56 2.82 1.09 2.71 666.12 671.89 674.73 645.85 648.83 649.82 102.94 103.23 102.57 1.50 1.50 1.50 240.38 241.47 244.17 July August September 6.8 31.80 -3.77 44.10 35.53 29.80 22.64 32.7 3.9 44.9 2.76 1.75 2.20 677.45 677.78 681.52 651.04 649.93 652.18 103.84 104.66 104.04 1.50 1.49 1.48 246.94 248.68 250.88 October November December 56^6 75.32 41.99 51.71 31.30 46.18 55.07 90.8 64.5 75.5 2.18 1.02 1.04 689.09 694.47 700.76 657.41 660.63 664.72 105.04 105.86 106.82 1.50 1.51 1.51 253.06 254.08 255.11 January February March 3.24 34.*3 37.39 44.33 31.55 22.94 39.3 46.2 36.6 3.81 0.25 1.32 704.03 707.89 710.94 666.50 669.06 670.20 107.42 108.16 108.08 1.52 1.51 1.50 258.92 259.18 260.49 April May June 2l!5 22.64 22.33 15.38 13.19 13.68 43.8 47.0 72.1 2.52 2.83 2.21 714.59 718.51 724.52 671.42 673.13 675.32 108.09 108.43 109.02 1.50 1.50 1.49 263.01 265.83 268.04 July August September -8.81 39.50 35.16 14.34 14.86 19.81 1.43 37°.5 D91.5 729.79 737.41 743.97 674.74 678.75 681.92 109.82 110.78 111.62 1.50 1.50 1.51 269.47 273.45 275.93 -17.99 23.03 59.40 20.42 16.14 17.44 83.5 -0.42 -0.84 r743.00 746.76 753.72 681.28 683.35 687.97 112.07 112.69 113.93 1.49 1.50 1.50 277.82 277.41 276.56 18.66 -6.58 -20.08 27.59 28.76 10.58 73.0 39.0 29.4 1.74 0.31 1.61 759.80 763.05 765.50 691.10 690.75 690.50 115.38 115.66 115.36 1.51 1.52 1.53 278.30 278.61 280.22 5.66 4.37 -4,83 -5.18 0.14 17.78 2.96 70.0 81.0 32.5 -0.77 -0.12 771.34 778.09 780.80 691.15 693.00 694.54 115.92 117.05 117.85 1.51 1.51 1.52 280.36 279.59 279.48 r8.77 r7.60 r-35.10 r9.79 rlO.84 r2.57 81.4 33.4 r2.4 -0.63 r-0.92 787.58 790.37 r790.57 r696.96 |H>r699.04 r697.01 119.02 119.19 [H)rl20.17 1.54 1.50 rl.51 [H)282.85 282.22 r281.29 plS.Ol p-5.54 p40.0 pO.74 [H>p793.91 p698.65 p!20.03 pi. 53 (NA) (NA) 1988 4.68 4.88 October . . . November December 1&\3 63.3 78.6 r-11.5 r45.0 D3.98 2.48 1.90 1989 January February March 24^5 April May June 19.1 July August September October November December r21°.9 (NA) (NA) 3.37 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) p282.03 (NA) See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 26, and 27. lr These series reached high values before 1987: series 30 (83.4) in 1st Q 1984, series 36 actual (92.33) in February 1984, series 36 smoothed (79.84) in May 1984, and series 77 (1.58) in March 1986. 2This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. 1989 HOI CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS . . Ill Minor Economic Process Year and month Stock Prices Sensitive Commodity Prices Timing Class PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS L, L, L L, L, L U, L, L L, L, L 98. Change in producer prices for sensitive crude and intermediate materials x 23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial, materials2 (u) 99. Change in sensitive materials prices1 (Percent) (1967 = 100) Smoothed 3 Actual (Percent) (Percent) 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks © (1941-43 = 10) Profits and Profit Margins L, L, L L, L, L Corporate profits after tax 16. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 18. Constant (1982) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L,C,L L,C,L Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj * 79. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 80. Constant (1982) dollars1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L, L, L 22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to corporate domestic income1 (Percent) 1987 264.51 280.93 292.47 m.k 117\B 164 ,*9 15K8 i!e 0.76 1.27 1.07 0.92 253.8 272.6 276.4 2.09 2.30 1.11 0.98 1.20 1.31 289.32 289.12 301.38 139 '.4 124!7 169 '.8 155!5 i',8 1.66 1.47 3.31 284.2 288.3 292.4 1.43 1.10 0.72 1.39 1.40 1.32 310.09 329.36 318.66 14SL3 133!6 18o!3 166.1 5!6 2.65 1.06 0.00 294.6 292.0 293.1 0.30 -1.28 280.16 245.01 240.96 148 ! 9 13l!-9 180 ! 9 164!9 i!7 0.49 1.13 0.70 0.41 0.90 0.89 1.11 292.5 288.9 292.3 0.78 0.36 1.19 0.30 0.24 0.33 250.48 258.13 265.74 159^9 14L8 189 !i 17i.°7 5!2 -0.22 -0.22 297.3 301.6 309.5 0.80 0.41 1.25 0.45 0.51 0.65 262.61 256.12 270.68 166^9 147!3 187.6 167!8 s'.i 309.0 309.9 306.4 0.05 0.15 0.65 0.58 0.44 269.05 263.73 267.97 173 '.2 DIBI'.S 189.7 168!e 5.*4 -0.14 0.27 0.40 0.54 277.40 271.02 276.51 [H>175! 6 isi!i D196!9 172.°3 5.*3 173.6 147!5 171.°9 145.8 5.'2 January February March 0.44 0.53 0.79 252.8 247.2 246.3 -0.25 April May June 0.43 2.25 1.69 July August September October November December 1.12 1988 January February March April May June . 0.00 July August September October November December 1.47 -0.22 -0.22 -0.36 305.0 309.7 317.2 -0.25 0.36 0.22 January February March 1.52 0.36 0.71 324.7 329.3 334.6 1.41 1.40 0.69 0.75 0.95 1.04 285.41 294.01 292.71 April May ." June 0.21 0.78 i>335.0 330.5 329.1 -0.80 -0.89 -0.58 0.84 0.49 0.15 302.25 313.93 323.73 161.1 133!2 172*.9 145*. 6 i!7 326.7 325.0 327.0 r-0.85 r-0.65 0.45 r-0.19 r-0.45 r-0.48 331.93 346.61 347.33 r!52.*4 rl23!6 r!72!e r!43'.8 4.'. 2 325.7 314.2 301.8 -0.17 -2.10 -0.46 -0.66 H> 347. 40 340.22 6 348.24 1.96 0.94 1989 July August September October November December -0.77 r-0.42 r-0.64 0.29 0.64 -1.55 5 See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29. 1 These series reached high values before 1987: series 98 (3.55) in July 1983, series 99 actual (3.21) in Aug. 1983 and smoothed (2.09) in Nov. 1983, series 22 (6.9) in 1st Q 1984, and series 80 (190.3) in 3d Q 1985. 2This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. 3This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada. ^See footnote 1 on p. 70. 5Average for Dec. 1-26. 6Average for Dec. 6, 13, 20, and 27. 1989 69 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS |U PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued Minor Economic Process Profits and Profit Margins— Continued Timing Class Year and month Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share Cash Flows U, L, L L, L, L L, L, L 81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj to corp. domestic income 1 2 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations 26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector 2 (Percent) (Cents) (1977 = 100) L, L, L L, L, L Corporate net cash flow 34. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) U, Lgf Lg 63. Index of unit labor cost, business sector 35. Constant (1982) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (1977 = 100) Lg, Lg, Lg 68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product, nonfinancial corporations (Dollars) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing Actual data (1977 = 100) Actual data as a percent of trend (Percent) 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (Percent) 1987 January February March e!2 i.'s 98.1 383^2 378!6 171.2 0.731 138.6 138.0 138.3 101.0 100.6 100.8 April May June 5.0 98.8 394!l 389 !l 171.3 0.727 137.2 136.9 136.6 100.0 6\2 July August September 6*.5 5.5 99.3 404 ! 7 400 ! 8 171.6 0.726 135.6 136.6 138.0 October November December 6°.l 4.4 98.6 407*. 6 403 !l 173!5 0.734 99.8 99.6 98.8 99.6 73!7 73L5 73!3 100.6 137.1 137.3 136.8 100.1 99.9 73.1 99.7 1988 January February March 98*.9 419!6 412!5 173!5 0.732 137.2 137.7 139.2 100.0 100.4 101.5 73.*2 s'.9 98.3 426!2 419!9 176.9 0.740 138.1 137.7 138.5 100.7 100.4 100.9 73.*2 e!i 5*.9 98.6 431 '.1 E>424'.9 178.0 0.746 137.7 137.6 138.4 100.4 100.3 100.9 73 '.3 6*.2 r5.8 99 °.l E>43l!6 421 '.8 180.2 0.756 139.9 138.9 138.2 102.0 101.2 100.7 73!i 5!! 5.*9 98! 2 426! 9 416.5 181.9 0.768 138.4 139.2 141.1 100.9 101.5 102.8 73!2 5,2 r4.9 98.2 412.2 401.9 184.1 0.778 139.2 139.2 139.3 101.5 101.5 101.5 73.4 5!6 p4.9 r98.2 r405.6 r394.9 0>rl85.5 0)0.783 6A HK2 6^3 July August September October November December April May June 1989 January February March April May June July August . . . . . . . . . September October November December 139.9 102.0 r!40.1 r!40.6 r!02.1 r!02.5 B)rl43.3 pHl.8 H>rl04.4 p!03.4 See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 29 and 30. X IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. 2 These series reached high values before 1987: series 81 (8.6) in 3d Q 1985 and series 26 (99.8) in 3d Q 1985. 70 DECEMBER 1989 H)74'.b CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS MONEY AND CREDIT Minor Economic Process Timing Class Year and month Money L, L,L L, C, U 85. Change in money supply Ml1 102. Change in money supply M21 (Percent) (Percent) Velocity of Money L, L,L 104. Change in total liquid assets x (Percent) L, L, L L, L, L 105. Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars 106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) C,C,C 107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml1 (Ratio) Credit Flows C, Lg, C 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (Ratio) U,L 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L, U 112. Net change in business loans (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1987 January February March April May June July August September October . . . . . November December 0.68 0.16 0.38 0.65 0.01 0.12 0.69 0.27 0.00 632.7 631.0 630.7 2,449.7 2,439.5 2.432.0 5.992 1.287 1.301 1.306 1 40 0 20 -0 71 0 40 0 04 0 09 0.25 0.66 0.39 [H}636.8 635.9 629.8 2,431.2 2,423.8 2,419.7 1.307 1.312 1.315 -5.75 6.014 0 20 0 38 0 31 0 29 0 47 0 55 0 13 0 59 629.5 629 2 629.5 2,420.5 2,421.6 2,428.7 6.126 1.320 1.324 1.323 -22.62 -29.33 28.15 1 26 -0.36 -0.30 0 60 0 74 0.07 0.18 0.21 0.06 635 3 630.9 628.0 2,435.2 2,428.6 2,429.0 6.182 1.342 1.338 1.356 29.58 -8.88 34,34 0.81 0.22 0.49 0.71 0.69 0.63 0.84 0.69 0.68 630.4 630.8 631.8 2S436.0 2,448.8 25456.2 6.230 1.338 1.337 1.340 63.36 73.18 19.81 0.97 0.70 0.32 0.44 0.87 0.64 0.38 634.7 632.0 634.4 2,461.2 2,458.9 0)2,461.7 6.260 1.340 1.341 1.344 94.69 15.76 28.42 0.36 0.20 0.17 rO 98 0.41 0.18 636.7 634.5 633.0 2,460.5 2,457.3 2,451.6 6.293 1.349 1.351 1.357 33.38 14.70 -21.98 0.24 0.57 0.33 0.46 0.57 0.79 631.4 630.8 631.7 2,445.6 2,453.5 2,453.7 6.372 1.374 1.363 1.370 36.38 15.43 80.89 625.0 T623.5 619.6 r2, 437.1 2,430.2 2,425.9 6.499 1.394 1.407 1.417 89.27 91.34 40.09 0.54 612.8 r601.9 598.5 r2,410.7 r2,390.9 2,399.4 6.707 1.424 1.431 1)1.431 52.54 0)123.64 26.44 r602.5 602.6 604.6 r2,416.7 2,431.4 r2,442. 6 r6.783 rl.425 1.421 rl.415 13.90 r88.30 r-26.64 r606.9 p605.8 r2,447.2 p2,453.1 rl.418 pi. 420 r-2.42 p!5.26 0.72 (NA) 97.22 ; -19.66 -16.76 2.48 10.79 1988 January February March April May June -0 01 0.70 July August September 0 77 -0 01 October November December 0.22 0.15 0.17 0 47 1989 January February March -0.51 rO.15 r-0.15 -0.12 rO.ll 0.30 0.09 0.28 0.75 April May June r-0.39 -1.25 r-0.40 rO.08 -0.28 -0.08 0.51 0.27 July August September rO 90 rO.03 0 48 rO 96 0.61 0.72 0.41 0 62 rO.25 October November December rO.84 pO.29 2 0.56 0.65 pO.58 pO 71 (NA) See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32. x The following series reached their high values before 1987: series 85 (2.66) in December 1986, series 102 (2.67) in January 1983, series 104 (1.20) in March 1984, series 107 (7.034) in 4th quarter 1984, and series 33 (143.70) in September 1984. 2 Average for weeks ended December 4 and 11. etui DECEMBER 1989 71 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q| MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued Minor Economic Process Credit Difficulties Credit Flows— Continued Timing Class L, L, L 113. Net change in consumer installment credit 1 Year and month (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L,U 111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding 1 (Ann. rate, percent) L.L.L 110. Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets 1 (Ann. rate, mil. dol.) L,L,L 14. Current liabilities of business failures 1 © (Mil. dol.) Bank Reserves L,L,L 39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 1days and over (Percent) interest Rates L,U,U L, Lg, U 93. Free 1 reserves © 94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve1© (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) L, Lg, Lg 119. Federal funds rate1© (Percent) C, Lg, Lg 114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills1© (Percent) 1987 -19.58 19.61 27.43 3.6 1.5 3.8 409,432 3,220.7 3 S 586.0 3,249.5 2.43 2.40 2.28 488 656 388 580 556 527 6.43 6.10 6.13 5.45 5.59 5 56 April May June 48.20 20.78 66.72 5.5 5.4 8.1 633,288 3 $ 222.5 2,488.5 3,332.4 2.36 2.43 2.35 -166 44 414 993 1,035 776 6.37 6.85 6.73 5 76 5 75 5 69 July August September 62.99 36.48 61.64 4.8 2.8 566,400 10.1 2,036.1 1,968.2 2,967.2 2.34 2.37 2.35 89 385 -147 672 647 940 6.58 6 73 7 22 5 78 6 00 6 32 October November December 25 76 14.66 63 38 603,688 16 2 3 004 2 1,663.5 3 985 0 2 66 2.54 2 47 186 298 252 943 625 777 7 29 6 69 6 77 6 40 5 81 5 80 January February March 86.20 65.77 57.44 10.6 6.7 r521,412 3,894.1 4,625.5 3,291.7 2.44 2.32 2.19 213 737 -823 1,082 396 1,752 6.83 6.58 6.58 5.90 5 69 5.69 April May June 40.96 46.15 64.86 11.3 r718,848 3,065.6 2,316.5 2,453.4 2.31 2.32 2.34 -2,134 -1,538 -2,195 2,993 2,578 3,083 6.87 7 09 7.51 5 92 6 27 6.50 July August September 16.45 65.51 22.68 8 3 11.1 r4.2 r596,048 4 582 8 2,291.2 3,555.5 2 45 2.38 2.42 -2 433 -2,288 -1,867 3 440 3 S 241 2,839 7 75 8.01 8.19 6 73 7.02 7.23 October November December 30 91 63 37 61 13 r7 3 r6 8 rlO 6 r629 576 rl 785 0 p2 047.5 p2 026 8 2 62 2 48 2 49 -1 237 -1 742 -676 2 299 2 861 1 716 8 30 8 35 8 76 7 34 7 68 8 09 January February March (NA) 64.52 45.18 (NA) 11.8 7,2 r591,152 p2, 100.0 p2,316.1 p2, 948.0 2.32 2.42 2.39 -517 -333 -856 1,662 1,487 1,813 9.12 9.36 9.85 8.29 8.48 8.83 April May June 32.99 50.65 32.60 8.1 11.1 r584,120 p6,145.6 pi, 873. 2 p2, 186.0 2.35 2.34 2.30 -1,513 -689 -585 2,289 1,720 1,490 9.84 9.81 9.53 8.70 8.40 8.22 July August September -6 06 31 88 p567 844 p4 073 4 p2 960 0 pi 751 2 2 86 2 73 2 88 272 210 245 694 675 693 9 24 8 99 9 02 7 92 7 91 7 72 p2 223 9 (NA) (NA) 465 p596 555 8 84 n"3AQ 0 CC v7 fd 7 fiR 20 en 37 KQ January February March .. 6 9 5.0 1988 7.2 7.4 8.3 1989 October . November . December . v*1 fi 4.R p40 02 (NA) r4.3 1 9 6 6 n-l p-i.&H (NA) See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 32, 33, and 34. l The following series reached their high values before 1987: series 113 (132.08) in September 1985; series 111 (23.2) in June 1984, series 110 (897,756) in 4th quarter 1985; series 14 (829.2) in July 1983; series 39 (1.78) in February 1984; and series 93 (-7,328), series 3 94 (8,017), series 119 (11.64), and series 114 (10.49) in August 1984. 2Average for weeks ended December 6, 13, and 20. Average for weeks ended December 7, 14, and 21. 72 DECEMBER 1989 ilCil BY MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued Minor Economic Process Outstanding Debt Interest Rates— Continued Timing Class Year and month Lg, Lg, Lg C, Lg, Lg U, Lg, Lg 116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds1© 115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds1® 117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20bond average1® (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 118. Secondary market yields onFHA mortgages1® 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans1® (Percent) (Percent) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 109. Average prime rate charged by banks1® 66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (Percent) (Mil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Commercial and industrial loans outstanding 72. Current dollars (Mil. dol.) 101. Constant (1982) dollars (Mil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income (Percent) 1987 January February March 8.59 8.58 8.68 7.60 7.69 7.62 6.61 6.61 6.66 8.79 8.81 8.94 7^46 7.50 7.50 7.50 570,415 572,049 574 9 335 366,883 365,245 363,848 365,058 361,629 359,534 15.67 15.54 15.52 April May June 9.36 9.95 9.64 8.31 8.79 8.63 7.55 8.00 7.79 10.02 10.61 10.33 8^24 7.75 8.14 8.25 578,352 580,084 585,644 363,369 363,576 364,475 356,594 354,363 353,859 15.55 15.53 15.64 9.70 10.09 10.63 8.70 8.97 9.58 7.72 7.82 8.26 10.38 10.55 11.22 8° 20 8.25 8.25 8.70 590,893 593,933 599,070 362,590 360,146 362,492 350,329 346,961 349,558 15.67 15.64 15.69 10.80 10.09 10.22 9.61 8.99 9.12 8.70 7.95 7.96 10,90 10.76 10.63 8°.47 9.07 8.78 8.75 601,217 602,439 607,721 364,957 364,217 367,079 350,583 349,536 352,283 15.44 15.50 15.41 9.81 9.43 9.68 8.82 8.41 8.61 7.69 7.49 7.74 10.17 9.86 10.28 8^37 8.75 8.51 8.50 614,904 620,385 625,172 372,359 378,457 380,108 355,984 361,123 362,353 15.68 15.73 15.71 April May . . June . . . . . . 9,92 10.25 10.08 8.91 9.24 9.04 7.81 7.91 7.78 10.46 10.84 10.65 8^49 8.50 8.84 9.00 628,585 632,431 637,836 387,999 389,312 391,680 366,729 365,551 365,373 15.69 15.72 15.75 July August September 10.12 10.27 10.03 9.20 9.33 9.06 7.76 7.79 7.66 10.66 10.74 10.58 9^75 9.29 9.84 10.00 639,207 644,666 646,556 394,462 395,687 393,855 365,581 366,377 364,343 15.67 15.75 15.70 October November December 9.86 9.98 10.05 8.89 9.07 9.13 7.47 7.46 7.61 10.23 10.63 10.81 lo'.II 10.00 10.05 10.50 649,132 654,413 659,507 396,887 398,173 404,914 366,809 367,657 371,481 15.53 15.70 15.68 January February March 9.92 10.11 10.33 9.07 9.16 9.33 7,35 7,44 7,59 10.69 10.88 11.16 10^97 10.50 10,93 11.50 682,020 687,397 691,162 412,353 419,965 423,306 373,170 379,030 379,647 [H>15.96 15.91 15.85 April May June 10.11 9.82 9.24 9.18 8.95 8.40 7.49 7.25 7.02 10.88 10.55 10.08 ll!89 11.50 11.50 11.07 693,911 698,132 700,849 427,684 437,987 440,190 380,841 386,914 389,894 15.82 15.88 15.87 July August September 9.20 r9.09 9.29 8.19 8.26 8.31 6.96 7.06 7.26 9.61 9.95 9.94 10.78 10.98 10.50 10.50 r391,266 441,348 700,344 703,001 [R>r448,706 [H>r400,630 r446,486 r704,371 r397,583 15.76 15.77 r!5.77 7.22 7.14 6.98 9,73 9.69 10 '.50 r446,284 p447,556 p!5.72 (NA) July August September October November December , BBS January February March 19S9 October November December . 2 9.04 9.20 9.19 2 8.15 8.03 8.00 3 4 10.50 Dp707,706 10.50 (NA) 10. 50 r395,993 p397,122 See note on page 60. Graphs of th@s® seriss are shown m pages 15, 34, and 35. x The following series reached their high values before 1987: series 116 (14.49), series 115 (13.00), and series 117 (10.67) in June 1984; series 118 (15.01) in May 1984; series 67 (13.29) in 3d quarter 1984; and series 109 (13.00) in August 1984. 2Average for weeks ended December 1, 8, 15, and 22. 3Average for weeks ended December 7, 14, and 21. ''Average for December 1 through 27. 1989 73 CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE HU DIFFUSION INDEXES Year and month 950. Eleven leading indicator components (series 1, 5, 8, 19, 20, 29, 32,83,92,99,106) 1-month span 6-month span 951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (series 41, 47, 51, 57) 952. Seven lagging indicator components (series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109, 120) 961. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing industries 962. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, 51 areas 1 963. Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 349 industries 1-month span 6-month span 25.0 78.6 35.7 42.9 57.1 57.1 57.1 80.0 17.5 67.5 72.5 85.0 88.2 35.3 52.0 69.6 82.4 78.4 55.6 59.3 61.0 67.3 65.8 64.8 1-month span 6-month span 1-month span 9-month span 1-month span 9-month span 1-month span 6-month span 1987 January February March 40.9 54.5 63.6 72.7 63.6 81.8 100.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 April May June 59.1 54.5 81.8 81.8 68.2 72.7 50.0 75.0 87.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 57.1 50.0 35.7 42.9 64.3 71.4 10.0 92.5 45.0 77.5 42.5 77.5 73.5 78.4 15.7 80.4 94.1 90.2 61.9 58.6 59.7 66.8 67.6 69.5 July August September 72.7 68^2 100.0 100.0 45.5 72.7 63.6 63.6 100.0 100.0 100.0 42.9 35.7 71.4 57.1 64.3 71.4 57.5 72.5 25.0 57.5 67.5 87.5 64.7 84.3 37.3 92.2 59.8 62.7 65.3 60.6 63.0 71.3 73.5 73.2 October November December 45.5 22.7 31.8 36.4 36.4 36.4 100.0 100.0 100.0 85.7 57.1 28.6 92.9 100.0 90.0 40.0 27.5 37.5 50.0 60.0 86.3 23.5 85.7 5.9 27.5 62.7 80.4 67.8 64.5 60.7 71.5 71.8 72.2 January . . . February March 40.9 63.6 59.1 31.8 45.5 86.4 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 85.7 71.4 42.9 78.6 85.7 85.7 37.5 32.5 62.5 42.5 65.0 32.5 80.4 29.4 60.8 45.1 41.2 33.3 60.7 63.5 63.0 69.9 70.2 71.5 April May June 63.6 36.4 81.8 77.3 86.4 72.7 75.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 42.9 42.9 57.1 42.9 57.1 57.1 77.5 30.0 57.5 20.0 42.5 57.5 94.1 29.4 31.4 23.5 86.3 96.1 62.8 61.3 67.2 73.9 73.9 69.1 July August . . . September 31.8 54.5 45.5 59.1 63.6 45.5 75.0 100.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 42.9 71.4 57.1 35.7 78.6 71.4 52.5 27.5 80.0 62.5 47.5 32.5 70.6 20.6 76.5 66.7 82.4 25.5 63.6 58.0 55.4 70.2 74.6 73.5 October November December 40.9 40.9 100.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 64.3 85.7 50.0 85.7 100.0 100.0 52.5 45.0 22.5 45.0 35.0 60.0 72.5 68 . 2 77.3 50.0 36.4 70.6 40.2 37.3 68.6 63.9 68.2 64.6 73.9 74.5 75.8 January February March 72.7 22.7 18.2 54.5 36.4 22.7 75.0 50.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 78.6 85.7 71.4 100.0 70.0 55.0 40.0 32.5 32.5 30.0 29.4 41.2 45.1 43.1 30.4 17.6 68.3 60.5 61.0 75.1 69.5 68.2 April May June 72.7 18.2 40.9 18.2 31.8 21.4 57.1 42.9 71.4 42.9 28.6 85.0 35.0 92.2 45.1 49.0 36.3 58.2 55.6 59.7 66.0 r65.0 r35.0 7.8 r50.0 100.0 25.0 75.0 63.0 r57.9 July August September . . . . . . . 50.0 50.0 57.1 30.0 55.0 r57.5 p29.4 p45.5 55.6 57.4 r47.9 r58.5 p58.9 62.5 75.0 50.0 100.0 57.5 1988 62.5 87.5 5.9 1989 October November December 50.0 100.0 r25.0 36.4 r31.8 r31.8 p45.5 2 50.0 100.0 75.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 50.0 2 66.7 57.1 57.1 r42.9 35.7 3 70.0 85.7 78.6 3 60.0 5.0 70.0. r40.0 p40.0 p37.5 56.9 62.7 35.3 r80.4 r!9.6 p41.2 P57.4 p59.0 NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (u), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 36. 1 Figures are the percent of components declining. 2 Excludes series 57, for which data are not available. 3 Excludes series 77 and 95., for which data are not available. 74 DECEMBER 1989 HOI CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued Year and month 964. Manufacturers' new orders, 34 durable goods industries 1-month span 9-month span 965. Newly approved capital appropriations in 1982 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries 1-quarter span 966. Industrial production, 24 industries 4-Q moving average 1-month span 967. Spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials © 6-month span 968. Stock prices, 500 common stocks1© 960. Net profits, manufacturing, about 600 companies2© 1-month span 9-month span 1-month span 9-month span (4-quarter span) 19S7 January February March 41.2 70.6 47.1 91.2 73.5 89.7 41 April May June 54.4 48.5 61.8 80.9 73.5 82.4 82 July August September 67.6 44.1 58.8 82.4 73.5 73.5 59 October November December 52.9 44.1 55.9 76.5 73.5 73.5 65 January February March 47.1 55.9 41.2 73.5 85.3 76.5 44 April May June 57.4 55.9 55.9 73.5 70.6 79.4 65 July August September 41.2 67.6 50.0 79.4 79.4 82.4 41 October November December 52.9 64.7 64.7 61.8 58.8 82.4 53 January February March 55.9 35.3 44.1 54.4 66.2 52.9 April May June 72.1 35.3 45.6 55.9 38.2 91.7 89.6 75.0 84.6 42.3 30.8 88.5 96.2 80.8 98.8 95.2 83.3 87.8 92.7 92.5 °74 61 31.2 64.6 60.4 75.0 87.5 83.3 61.5 88.5 57.7 73.1 96.2 80.8 39.3 46.3 93.9 97.5 97.5 62.5 76 "62 50.0 70.8 70.8 91.7 91.7 95.8 73.1 76.9 61.5 88.5 88.5 76.9 81.3 95.0 10.0 12.5 10.0 °78 "63 70.8 62.5 50.0 *58 75.0 79.2 66.7 83.3 79.2 83.3 53.8 46.2 50.0 53.8 69.2 69.2 53.8 '54 52.1 54.2 70.8 83.3 75.0 70.8 42.3 34.6 65.4 69.2 61.5 61.5 75.0 88.8 37.0 91.7 87.5 79.2 57.7 65.4 65.4 61.5 61.5 61.5 37.2 97.4 84.6 91.0 92.3 °77 51 79.2 60.4 58.3 79.2 83.3 91.7 42.3 46.2 38.5 57.7 53.8 65.4 30.8 28.2 69.2 79.5 64.1 84.6 *72 P 51 83.3 60.4 56.3 75.0 75.0 66.7 91.7 70.8 68.8 42.3 69.2 76.9 57.7 69.2 61.5 84.6 23.1 74.4 97.4 78.9 86.8 '72 64.6 29.2 60.4 75.0 62.5 62.5 69.2 65.4 57.7 46.2 53.8 53.8 100.0 94.7 92.3 39.5 100.0 62.5 79.2 r47.1 79.2 50.0 85.4 53.8 38.5 38.5 53.8 61.5 46.2 89.5 78.9 81.6 97.4 97.4 92.1 p63.2 50.0 38.5 50.0 46.2 46.2 26.9 76.3 94.7 39.5 76.3 8.8 0.0 0.0 17.5 8.0 '77 12.8 1988 (NA) 3.8 5.1 7.7 'so 52.6 19S9 July August September 35.3 63.2 55.9 October November December r52.9 p61.8 p47 (NA) r50.0 r41.7 r52.1 p43.8 r87.5 r56.3 p54.2 34.6 7.7 3.8 (NA) 97.4 39.5 22.4 See note on page 74. Graphs of these series are shown on page 37. Based on 42 industries through April 1987, on 41 industries through June 1987, on 40 industries through March 1988, on 39 industries through February 1989, and on 38 industries thereafter. . Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the source. 2 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun £ Bradstreet, Inc. 1 lien DECEMBER 1989 75 CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued Year and quarter 970. Expenditures for new plant and equipment, 21 industries a. Actual expenditures (1-Q span) b. Later projections c. Early projections (1-Q span) (1-Q span) 971. New orders, manufacturing1© 972. Net profits, manufacturing and trade 1 @ Actual Actual Anticipated (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 973. Net sales, manufacturing and trade1© Actual Anticipated (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) Anticipated 1987 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 40.5 69.0 81.0 71.4 54.8 90.5 85.7 81.0 59.5 85.7 61.9 52.4 78 83 82 82 80 83 85 86 74 74 75 76 78 81 83 82 78 80 82 83 82 83 85 86 88.1 85.7 71.4 64.3 95.2 76.2 66.7 42.9 71.4 66.7 54.8 52.4 82 82 82 83 84 84 86 84 76 76 76 78 82 82 82 84 80 80 82 84 85 84 86 85 59.5 73.8 76.2 66.7 61.9 57.1 57.1 71.4 52.4 66.7 52.4 80 75 82 86 81 78 72 73 80 84 80 77 80 76 84 87 84 80 1988 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter . . . . . Fourth quarter . . . . 1989 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . (NA) (NA) (NA) 1990 First quarter . . . . . . Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 59.5 HH DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued Year and quarter 974. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade 1(u) Anticipated Actual Anticipated Actual Anticipated Actual 978. Selling prices, retail trade1© 977. Selling prices, wholesale trade1© 976. Selling prices, manufacturing1© 975. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade1© Anticipated Actual Anticipated Actual (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 60 61 64 64 60 59 62 62 64 65 66 68 60 60 61 62 64 64 68 70 60 66 67 66 63 70 72 70 63 68 66 69 67 67 72 72 64 64 68 70 63 62 62 63 63 62 62 61 67 70 69 68 62 64 62 63 74 74 74 75 70 69 74 72 74 73 74 72 72 72 71 68 70 70 73 70 68 71 70 72 62 60 62 62 61 58 66 65 63 64 60 60 72 72 70 74 68 67 74 71 72 72 69 66 73 71 70 72 73 69 (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 1987 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1988 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1989 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 1990 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by @, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 38. l This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun $ Bradstreet, Inc. Dun $ Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives. 76 DECEMBER 1989 IIC1I CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued HI SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change Diffusion index components 1989 June May April August July September1" October1" November*3 961. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS OF PRODUCTION OR NONSUPERVISORY WORKERS, MANUFACTURING1 (Hours) All manufacturing industries . + Percent Hsing of 20 components 41.0 41.3 (85) (5) o 41.0 o (70) 41,0 o 41.0 o (55) (30) 41.0 40.8 40.7 (58) (40) (40) Durable goods industries: Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures + + 40.5 39.9 39,7 39.4 -io 39.8 39.4 Stone clay and glass products Primary metal industries + 42.5 43,3 41.9 43.2 + + 42.2 43,3 Fabricated metal products Machinery, except electrical + + 41.9 42.7 41.7 42.5 o 41.5 42.5 Electric and electronic equipment Transportation equipment + 41.0 42.8 40.7 42,5 o o 40.7 42.5 Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing + + 41.5 39.8 41.1 39.6 + 41.3 39.4 + Food and kindred products Tobacco manufacturers 2 + + 40.7 38.1 40.5 39.5 + + 40.7 40.1 + Textile mill products , Apparel and other textile products + + 41.7 37.6 41.4 37.1 o o 41.4 37,1 41.2 37.0 Paper and allied products Printing and publishing + o 43.4 37.9 43.3 37.7 o + 43.3 37.8 43.2 37.6 Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and coal products2 + + 42.6 44.3 42.1 43.9 + + 42.5 44.6 o Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products Leather and leather products o + 41.6 38.3 41,5 37.4 o + 41.5 37.9 - o o 39.6 39.5 + • 40.2 + 39.6 + 42.3 43.0 + 42.5 42.9 o 41.5 42.4 o 41.5 42.2 + + 40.6 42.6 + + 40.9 42.7 + + 41.4 39.3 + 41.1 39.4 + + 40.2 39.6 + 42.2 42.8 + 40.4 39.1 + 40.2 39.3 42.3 42.4 + o 42.4 42.4 41.6 42.3 41.4 42.0 o 41.3 42.0 41.1 42.8 40.9 41.3 41.0 39.2 + 40.8 40.6 41.1 39.1 + + 41.3 39.5 o 40.7 39.3 Nondurable goods industries: + - 40.8 37.3 + + 41.0 40.3 + 40.7 40.9 o 41.0 37.0 o 40.6 37.0 + o 40.7 37.0 + + 43.5 37.7 43.2 37.9 + + 43.4 37.7 + + 43.5 37.9 42.4 43.7 .+ + 42,5 44.4 o + 42.5 44.8 o 42.4 44.8 41.5 38.1 o o 41.5 38.1 41.3 37.7 - 125,227 - 124,348 41.0 37.9 42.5 44.3 + + 41.4 37.7 40.5 36.9 41.2 37.6 964. MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIESl3 (Millions of dollars) All durable goods industries .+ 129 9 372 - 123,524 (72) Percent vising of 34 components Machinery except electrical Electrical machinery + + 22,731 19,890 - Transportation equipment Other durable goods industries o + 37,062 23,817 o + 126,766 (56) (63) (35.) + 130,683 (53) (62) 11,770 13,435 - 11,510' 12,820 + 11,251 13,275 + + 11,399 13,689 + 11,015 13,886 + + 11,202 13,996 22,288 18,677 + 23,348 +•• 19,593 -• •+ 20,917 19,773 + •- 22,643 19,424 + 22,554 20,898 - 21,492 20,143 + + 22,900 21,741 33,470 23,816 - + - 34,012 22,999 + + 36,514 23,659 + 32,555 24,132 + + 33,252 24,560 + - 36,727 24,117 -. 12,481 - - 12,792 12 9 865 13,007 . - 122,031 (46) (35) + + Primary metals Fabricated metal products + 125,137 + 33,414 23,577 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. 1 Unless otherwise noted, data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 2 Not seasonally adjusted. 3 Data for most of the diffusion index components are not available for publication, but they are included in the totals and directions of change for the six major industry groups shown here. 1989 77 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued IPII SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued Diffusion index components 1989 May April June August r July September r October r • November 966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1 (1977 = 100) All industrial production + Percent rising of 24 components 2 141.7 - 141.6 + (50) (79) 141.9 142.0 (85) + (50) 142.5 142.1 141.3 (50) (42) (52) + 141.5 (44) Durable manufactures: Lumber and products Furniture and fixtures + + 135.1 168.0 + 135.5 + 170.2 Clay, glass, and stone products Primary metals + 124.7 90.1 123.9 87.2 Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical, machinery + 123.1 184.7 + 124.8 .+ 186.5 + 125.2 + 187.5 + 125.4 - 186.7 + + 125.5 187.8 Electrical machinery Transportation equipment + 182.2 + 136.4 - + - - Instruments Miscellaneous manufactures + 163.0 + 115.3 + 164.3 + 117.1 + 165.7 + 119.1 Foods Tobacco products + 146.6 + 109.2 + 147.2 - 105.9 + 147.9 104.2 147.3 97.1 Textile mill products Apparel products + 122.5 .+ 111.3 + 123.6 + 111.5 + + 123.5 111.4 Paper and products Printing and publishing 150.7 + 200.1 - 181.6 135.5 + 137.2 + 170.8 - o + + 123.9 87.3 181.9 134.2 136.9 169.0 - 136.5 168.0 + 122.9 +' 123.9 89.2 . + 90.3 181.4 131.3 + 166.0 o 119.1 + 136.2 + 168.7 135.3 168.4 NA) NA) 122.6 89.2 + 123.5 88.5 - 124.7 186.8 - 123.9 183.2 + + 124.1 187.3 + 183.7 + 133.2 - 182.8 131.8 - 181.5 123.3 + 181.0 124.3 - 164.1 118.9 - 162.9 118.3 + 163.0 117.1 162.9 + + 148.3 99.9 + 148.8 (NA) + 150.0 (NA) (NA) (NA) 123.2 111.1 o 123.2 111.0 - 122.3 110.0 (NA) (NA) + 152.8 + 153.4 + 154.0 + 200.6 + 202.7 o 202.8 161.5 97.7 + 159.6 98.3 + + 161.8 99.8 (NA) 99.0 183.6 60.2 + o 183.8 60.2 + 184.1 59.9 (NA) (NA) 103.7 135.4 + + 104.2 144.2 + (NA) 144.4 89.9 144.8 + + 90.0 150.0 (NA) 86.2 (NA) Nondurable manufactures: Chemicals and products Petroleum products : Rubber and plastics products Leather and products . , + 159.3 + 97.3 + + 178.0 61.4 + 123.8 111.9 150.1 199.0 + 150.2 200.5 + 152.4 - 199.9 158.2 96.9 + 159.9 + 97.9 + 162.2 + 98.3 180.5 60.3 + + 182.3 60.5 o 182.3 + 60.8 101.2 129.2 + + 90.6 150.2 + 90.8 + . 152.1 + + (NA) + 203.0 • Mining: Metal mining Oil and gas extraction Stone and earth minerals ; 96.8 + 145.5 94.0 137.1 + - 89.1 144.5 + + 90.5 146.6 + + + 106.2 130.2 + 90.3 151.5 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling, preliminary; and "NA", not available. Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 2 Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent risir 78 (NA) + 144.5 (NA) (NA) The "r" indicates revised; "p" DECEMBER 1989 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued SELECTED D I F F U S I O N I N D E X COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued Diffusion index components 1989 April June May August July September October November December 1 967. I N D E X OF SPOT MARKET PRICES, RAW INDUSTRIALS 2 Raw industrials price index (1967 = 100) . . . . + Percent rising of 13 components 335.0 - 330.5 - (38) (54) 329.1 - 326.7 - (38) (38) 325.0 + (50) 327.0 - (46) 325.7 - (35) 314.2 - 301.8 (8) (4) Dollars Copper scrap (pound) (kilogram).. + 1.058 2.332 - 0.969 2.136 Lead scrap (pound) . . (kilogram) . . + 0.218 0.481 o 0.218 + 0.481 Steel scrap (U.S. ton) . . (metric ton) . . - - 0.901 + 1.986 0.952 2.099 + 1.012 2.231 + 1.028 2.266 - 0.915 2.017 - 0.802 1.768 0.228 + 0.503 0.231 + 0.509 0.242 0.534 + 0.260 0.573 - 0.257 0.567 - 0.255 0.562 - 0.240 0.529 99.000 •- 96.000 105.821 109.128 - 94.000 103.616 0.940 2.072 o 113.000 124.560 - 112.200 123.678 - 111.000 122.355 - 108.000 119.048 - 105.000 115.741 - 102.250 112.710 - Tin (pound) . . (kilogram) . . + 5.750 12.676 + 5.822 12.835 - 5.685 12.533 - 5.290 11.662 - 4.786 10.551 - 4.535 9.998 - 4.362 9.616 - 3.782 8.338 - 3.715 8.190 Zinc (pound) . . (kilogram) . . - 0.879 1.938 - 0.854 1.883 - 0.809 1.784 - 0.804 1.772 + 0.829 1.828 - 0.822 1.812 - 0.804 1.772 - 0.761 1.678 - 0.734 1.618 (yard) . . (meter) . . + 0.283 0.309 - 0.282 0.308 + 0.284 0.311 + 0.286 0.313 - 0.284 0.311 o 0.284 0.311 + 0.285 0.312 - 0.284 0.311 - 0.282 0.308 (pound) . . (kilogram) . . + 0.614 1.354 + 0.635 1.400 + 0.638 1.407 + 0.670 1.477 + 0.698 1.539 - 0.686 1.512 + 0.693 1.528 - 0.677 1.493 - 0.637 1.404 (yard) (meter) . . + 0.650 0.711 + 0.708 0.774 + 0.768 0.840 + 0.815 0.891 - 0.784 0.857 - 0.782 0.855 - 0.774 0.846 - 0.752 0.822 - 0.710 0.776 (pound) . . (kilogram) . . - 6.250 13.779 - 5.570 12.280 - 5.400 11.90.5 - 5.200 11.464 + 5.220 11.508 + 5.250 11.574 - 5.180 11.420 - 5.000 11.023 - 4.800 10.582 Hides (pound) . . (kilogram) . . - 0.975 2.149 - 0.954 2.103 - 0.948 + 2.090 1.000 2.205 + 1.020 2.249 + 1.052 2.319 - 1.048 2.310 - 1.025 2.260 - 1 ..004 2.213 Rosin (100 p o u n d s ) . . (100 k i l o g r a m s ) . . o 65.000 143.299 o 65.000 143.299 - 64.500 142.197 - 63.000 138.890 o 63.000 138.890 o 63.000 138.890 o 63.000 138.890 o 63.000 138.890 o 63.000 138.890 Burlap Cotton '..-.. Print cloth Wool tops , Rubber (pound) . . (kilogram) . . - 0.553 1.219 - 0.520 1.146 - 0.494 1.089 - 0.492 1.085 - 0.473 1.043 - 0.462 1.019 - 0.461 1.016 - 0.457 1.008 - 0.449 0.990 Tallow (pound) . . (kilogram) . . - 0.143 + 0.315 0.144 0.317 + 0.150 0.331 - 0.142 0.313 - 0.131 + 0.289 0.138 0.304 + 0.144 0.317 o 0.144 0.317 - 0.136 0.300 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: preliminary; and "NA", not available. ( +) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p", a The Index is the average for December 1 through 26. Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2 DECEMBER 1989 79 IMPORTANT IA I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME Year 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars 200. Gross national product in current dollars and quarter b. Difference a. Total (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. doi.) b. Difference a. Total c. Percent change at annual rate (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) c. Percent change at annual rate 217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars 213. Final sales in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, dollars) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1988 First quarter . . . Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter 4,181.3 4S194.7 4,253.3 4,297.3 73.4 13.4 58.6 44.0 7.3 1.3 5.7 4.2 3,721.1 3,704.6 3,712.4 3,733.6 58.7 -16.5 7.8 21.2 6.6 -1.8 0.8 2.3 15,455 15,351 15,343 15,391 3,679.2 3,697.6 3,718.3 3,754.4 4,388.8 4,475.9 4,566.6 4,665.8 91.5 87.1 90.7 99.2 8.2 8.4 9.0 3,783.0 3,823.5 3,872.8 3,935.6 49.4 40.5 49.3 62.8 5.4 4.4 5.3 6.6 15,562 15,693 15,854 16,068 3,764.9 3,810.1 3,866.0 3,879.0 4,739.8 4,838.5 4,926.9 5,017.3 74.0 98.7 88.4 90.4 6.5 8.6 7.5 7.5 3,974.8 4,010.7 4,042.7 4,069.4 39.2 35.9 32.0 26.7 4.0 3.7 3.2 2.7 16,192 16,303 16,388 16,452 3,940.5 3,989.2 4,005.2 4,051.0 5,113.1 5,201.7 r5,281.0 95.8 88.6 r79.3 7.9 7.1 r6.2 4,106.8 4,132.5 r4,162.9 37.4 25.7 r30.4 3.7 2.5 r3.0 16,567 16,633 r!6 9 709 4,082.3 4,113.5 r4,141.0 1987 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter 1988 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter 1989 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME-Continued 230. Total in current dollars Disposable personal income Year and quarter 224. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 225. Constant (1982) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 231. Total in 1982 dollars 232. Durable goods in current dollars 233. Durable goods in 1982 dollars 227. Per capita in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, dollars) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1986 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter 2,959.2 3,006.5 3,024.3 3,063.4 2,609.2 2,648.6 2,637.3 2,646.2 10,837 10,975 10,900 10,909 2,734.3 2,761.0 2,826.0 2,868.5 2,410.9 2,432.4 2,464.4 2,477.8 381.8 393.6 426.4 422.0 363.7 374.5 401.9 397.5 3,142.8 3,138.1 3,223.5 3,319.4 2,672.3 2,632.5 2,675.6 2,726.2 10,993 10,805 10,953 11,130 2,914.7 2,989.4 3,055.9 3,083.3 2,478.3 2,507.7 2,536.5 2,532.3 401.2 419.2 439.3 424.5 376.1 389.3 403.8 389.4 3,376.4 3,435.9 3,511.7 3,587.4 2,757.2 2,773,3 2,806.4 2,835.9 11,232 11,273 11,377 11,466 3,148.1 3,204.9 3,263.4 3,324.0 2,570.8 2,586.8 2,608.1 2,627.7 446.4 454.6 452.5 467.4 408.4 414.8 410. 420. 3,689.5 3,747.7 r3,806.8 2,881.7 2,887.6 r2,919.2 11,625 11,622 rll,717 3,381.4 3,444.1 r3,508.1 2,641.0 2,653.7 >2,690.1 466.4 471.0 r486.1 419.3 424.9 r436.4 1987 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter 1988 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter 19S9 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (g), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 41. DECEMBER 1989 KCBI OTHER IMPORTAMT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued I l l PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES-Continued year and quarter \/nnr 236. Nondurable goods in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 238. Nondurable goods in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 237. Services in current dollars 239. Services in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 240. Total in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 241. Total in 1982 dollars 242. Fixed investment in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 243. Fixed investment in 1982 dollars 19S6 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 939.0 935.4 941.4 952.1 870.1 879.8 879.1 883.5 1,413.4 1,432.0 1,458.2 1,494.4 1,177.1 1,178.0 1,183.4 1,196.8 683.8 657. *2 647.7 648^8 676.1 642*3 625.1 615^2 976.4 994.3 1,006.0 1,015.4 887.7 889 .0 891.8 892.9 1,537.1 1,575.8 1,610.6 1,643.3 1,214.5 1,229.5 1,240.9 1,250.0 673.1 684! 1 692.8 749.7 646.3 656.' 7 671.7 721.1 1 9 022.2 1,042.4 1,066.2 1,078.4 896.6 899.2 91.0.3 912.0 1,679.5 1,707.9 1,744.7 1,778.2 1,265.9 1,272.8 1,287.0 1,295.2 728.8 748.4 771.1 752.8 707.0 713.5 733.6 709.1 698.7 719.1 726.5 734.1 672.7 692.0 696.1 690.8 1,098.3 1,121.5 rl,131.4 915.0 909.7 r920.8 1,816.7 1,851.7 rl s 890.6 1,306.7 1,319.0 rl, 332.9' 769.6 775.0 r779. 1 721.1 719.8 r724.6 742.0 747.6 r751.7 696.6 700.7 r702.7 643. 1 f.?A 651.*8 660.9 635.2 coi Do 1 n .U 636.0 fiA71/ . 7 OH / COO 0 O£O . £ 665.3 683.2 686.3 643.4 664.9 664.6 C.ZA OO'r . 0C. O OO*T . L. I9S7 First quarter . Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1988 .First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter . . . . . . Fourth quarter . . . . 19S9 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . H Vpar I car and quarter H GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVEST.-Con. 245. Change in business inventories in current dollars 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 260. Total in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 261. Total in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES 262. Federal Government in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 263. Federal Government in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 266. State and • local government in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 267. State and local government in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 19§S First quarter . Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 40.7 41.9 5.4 7.1 -6.4 -12.2 -20.8 25.4 18.8 18,1 13.3 -5.9 850.3 869^3 880.3 888.9 744.1 761.2 765.2 776.0 QCQ C OOO o D •50/1 A O£*t . t T-.71 . O 368.7 369.9 368.8 335.4 334.2 342.4 500.6 510.4 520.1 f iy . D 425.7 430.9 433.6 906.9 916.8 933.2 947^5 776.6 774.9 783 . 5 792!l 375.6 378.2 004 .co oot 388.1 338.1 334.7 531.4 538.6 438.5 440.1 AQ1 ft A 1 Q C 1987 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 9.5 JT-U . / o/ifi 7 c/io . 7 OM-O / 344.9 559.4 447.2 63.3 6.8 56.' 6 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 30.0 29.3 44.6 18.7 34.3 21.5 37.5 18.3 945.7 960.1 958.6 1,011.4 775.1 783.0 775.9 806.4 374.1 377.1 367.5 406.4 323.8 327.9 319.8 343.9 571.6 583.0 591.0 604.9 451.3 455.1 456.1 462.5 I9S9 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 27.7 27,4 r27.4 24.5 19.1 1,016.0 1,033.2 rl,038.9 799.7 810.3 r805.3 399.0 406,0 K02.7 335.5 343.6 r336.1 617.0 627.2 r636.2 464.2 466.7 K69.2 A.A9 Q M-H-c .0 19SS r21.9 See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 41, 42, and 43. 1IC1I DECEMBER 1989 81 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued D QS FOREIGN TRADE Year and quarter 252. Current dollars 255. Constant (1982) dollars 250. Current dollars 256. Constant (1982) dollars 253. Current dollars 280. Compensation of employees 257. Constant (1982) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 220. National income in current dollars Imports of goods and services Exports of goods and services Net exports of goods and services NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1986 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . -87.1 -92.7 -100.8 -108.9 -110.0 -131.2 -142.3 -135.4 395.5 390.7 397.3 402.4 392.9 389.6 399.6 406.5 482.7 483.4 498.0 511.3 502.9 520.7 541.9 541.9 3S363.4 3,394.5 3,419.3 3,473.1 2,463.8 2,487.2 2,523.3 2,571.2 -106.0 -114.4 -115.3 -114.6 -118.2 -115.9 -118.9 -109.8 416.5 437.4 458.0 482.6 418.7 439.5 461.3 484.1 522.5 551.8 573.4 597,2 536.9 555.4 580.2 593.9 3,550.5 3,616.4 3,694.8 3,799.9 2,615.0 2,656.6 2,709.8 2,778.7 -82.8 -74.9 -66.2 -70.8 -78.2 -72.6 -74.9 -73.8 521.6 532.5 556.8 579.7 517.4 519.7 531.9 551.4 604.3 607.5 623.0 650.5 595.6 592.3 606.9 625.2 3,853.6 3,933.6 4,005.7 4,097.4 2,819.4 2,878.9 2,935.1 2,997.2 -54.0 -50.6 r-45.1 -55.0 -51.2 r-57.1 605.6 626.1 r628.5 569.7 587.5 r593.1 659.6 676.6 r673.6 624.6 638.7 r650.2 4,185.2 4,249.6 r4,287.3 3,061.7 3,118.2 3,171.9 1987 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1988 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1989 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . I 1 Year and quarter 282. Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj 1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) |H SAVING NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS-Continued 284. Rental income of persons with CCAdj 1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 286. Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj 1 288. Net interest 290. Gross saving (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 292. Personal saving 295. Business saving (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1986 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 269.4 289.5 279.7 289.2 11.5 11.7 13.5 292.7 280.9 279.7 275.2 327.9 325.4 324.9 324.0 559.6 523.0 508,8 510.0 550.8 542.8 545.5 539.3 135.9 155.0 106.6 102.0 306.7 305.8 305.2 328.7 14.7 13.0 11.5 14.3 279.9 293.7 313.0 308.2 334.2 347.2 355.3 370.0 529.5 535.0 551.1 599.5 546.8 556.4 571.0 573.9 135.9 141.8 324.0 331.8 327.0 328.3 15.6 14.6 16.3 16.1 318.1 325.3 330.9 340.2 376.6 383.0 396.4 415.7 619.1 633.4 669.8 647.4 588.1 588.5 592.8 605.8 131.9 134.0 149.6 163.4 359.3 355.5 r343.3 11.8 316.3 307.8 r295.2 436.1 458.4 r471.5 693.5 695.8 r709.9 586.4 593.0 r614.5 205.7 200.7 r!95.1 9.6 1987 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 55.9 73.6 1988 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1989 First quarter . . . . . . Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 9.8 r5.4 See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46. 1 IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. 82 DECEMBER 1989 HOI OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Ill Year and quarter SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME SAVING-Continued 298. Government surplus or deficit 293. Personal saving rate Percent of gross national product 235. Personal consumption expenditures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Percent) (Percent) 248. Nonresidential fixed investment 247. Change in business inventories 249. Residential fixed investment (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) 251. Net exports of goods and services 1986 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter -127.2 -174.7 -143.4 -131.3 4.6 5.2 3.5 3.3 65.4 65.8 66.4 66.8 10.5 10.4 10.1 10.1 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.2 -153.2 -77.3 -93.5 -116.3 4.3 1.8 2.3 4.3 66.4 66.8 66.9 66.1 9.7 9.8 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.4 -2.4 -2.6 -2.5 -2.5 -101.0 -89.1 -72.7 -121.9 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.6 66.4 66.2 66.2 66.3 9.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.8 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.4 -1.7 -1.5 -1.3 -1.4 -98.7 -97.9 r-99.8 5.6 5.4 66.1 66.2 r66.4 4.7 4.5 4.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 -1.1 -1.0 r5.1 9.8 9.9 9.8 1.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -2.1 -2.2 -2.4 -2.5 1987 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 10.0 9.8 198S First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 10.0 10.1 10.0 1989 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . r-0.9 Qj SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Continued Year and quarter Percent of GNP— Continued 265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services (Percent) Percent of national income 268. State and local government purchases of goods and services (Percent) 64. Compensation of employees 285. Rental income of persons with CCAdj * 283. Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj x 289. Net interest (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) 287. Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj l 1986 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 8.6 8.8 8.7 8.6 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.1 73.3 73.3 73.8 74.0 8.0 8.5 8.2 8.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 8.7 8.3 8.2 7.9 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.3 8.6 8.4 8.4 8.3 12.1 12.0 12.0 12.0 73.7 73.5 73.3 73.1 8.6 8.5 8.3 8.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 7.9 8.1 8.5 8.1 9.4 9.6 9.6 9.7 7.9 7.8 7.5 8.1 12.1 12.0 12.0 12.1 73.2 73.2 73.3 73.1 8.4 8.4 8.2 8.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 9.8 9.7 9.9 7.8 7.8 7.6 12.1 12.1 73.2 73.4 74.0 8.6 8.4 8.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 7.6 7.2 1987 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1988 First quarter . . . . . . . Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 10.1 1989 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . r!2.0 r6.9 10.4 10.8 11.0 See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47. '"IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. ilCil DECEMBER 1989 83 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES BI PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY PRICE MOVEMENTS Implicit price deflator for gross national product Year and month 310. Index (1982 = 100) 310c. Change over 1-quarter spans * (Ann. rate, percent) 311. Index (1982 = 100) 311c. Change . over 1-quarter spans 1 (Ann. rate, percent) Consumer price index for all urban consumers, food Consumer price index for all urban consumers Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product 320. Index© (1982-84=100) 320c. Change over 1-month spans 1 (Percent) 320c. Change over 6-month spansl (Ann. rate, percent) 322. Index (1982-84=100) 322c. Change over 1-month spans i (Percent) 322c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 1987 January February March ii6\6 April May June 117!l 3.2 3.8 July ' August September October . November December 111.2 111.6 112.1 0.7 0.4 0.4 5.0 5.1 5.3 112.1 112.3 112.5 0.6 0.2 0.2 4.0 4.2 4.9 3.9 112.7 113.1 113.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 4.4 4.5 4.0 112.8 113.4 114.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 3.1 2.7 3.2 3.7 113.8 114.4 115.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 3.8 3.7 3.6 113.8 113.8 114.3 3.6 115.3 115.4 115.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 3.9 3.3 3.7 114.5 114.7 115.3 3.3 115.7 116.0 116.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 3.9 4.0 4.4 115.7 115.5 116.0 5.0 117.1 117.5 118.0 0.4 0.4 0.3 4.4 4.7 4.9 5.5 118.5 119.0 119.8 0.4 0.3 0.4 4.3 120.2 120.3 120.5 4.1 116.9 2.8 . 3.7 115^7 IIJ'.V 0.0 0.4 3.0 2.3 2.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 3.4 3.0 3.0 0.3 0.4 3.7 4.2 4.4 116.6 117.1 117.8 0.5 0.4 0.6 5.6 7.0 7.6 4.8 4.5 4.5 118.9 119.5 120.3 0.9 0.5 0.7 7.0 6.4 5.9 0.4 0.3 0.3 4.8 4.9 5.1 120.6 120.8 121.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 5.5 5.3 5.6 121.1 121.6 122.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 5.6 6.2 5.9 122.1 122.6 123.6 0.7 0.4 0.8 6.1 7.1 6.9 5.3 123.1 123.8 124.1 0.7 0.6 0.2 5.2 4.3 3.6 124.2 125.0 125.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 6.0 5.5 4.3 2.6 124.4 124.6 125.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 3.3 2.9 125.7 125.9 126.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 4.1 3.9 125.6 125.9 0.5 0.4 126.7 127.4 0.4 0.6 117!9 2.4 118.6 119!6 -0.3 198S January February March 119^2 April May June i2o!e July August September 12L9 October November December 123!3 2.0 119!9 4.8 121A 4.4 123^6 4.7 124^4 -0.2 1989 January February March 124!5 April May June 125^9 4.0 125^6 4.6 127°.2 .. .. July August September October November December . 3.2 126^9 128 '.6 See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49. '•Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. DECEMBER 1989 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Ill Producer price index, all commodities Year . and month 330. Index @ 330c. Change over 1-month spans1© (1982 = 100) (Percent) PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued Producer price index, crude materials for further processing Producer price index, industrial commodities 330c. Change over 6-month spans1© 335. Index © (Ann. rate, percent) (1982 = 100) 335c. Change over 1-month spans1© (Percent) 335c. Change over 6-month spans1© (Ann. rate, percent) 331. Index 331c. Change over 1-month spans1 (1982 = 100) (Percent) 331c. Change over 6-month spans 1 (Ann. rate, percent) 1987 January February March 100.5 101.0 101.2 0.8 0.5 0.2 4.5 5.7 6.7 100.4 100.8 101.1 1.2 0.4 0.3 5.1 5.5 6.6 89.3 90.1 90.8 2.8 0.9 0.8 12.5 14.9 17.8 April . . May June 101.9 102.6 103.0 0.7 0.7 0.4 6.1 5.6 5.0 101.6 101.9 102.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 5.5 5.8 4.8 92.6 93.9 94.3 2.0 1.4 0.4 14.4 14.7 11.5 July August September 103.5 103.8 103.7 0.5 0.3 4.4 3.1 2.3 103.1 103.7 103.5 0.7 0.6 4.8 4.6 3.5 95.5 96.5 95.9 -0.6 October November December 104.1 104.2 104.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.1 1.9 2.3 104.0 104.2 104.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.5 1.7 2.3 95.8 95.0 94.8 -0.1 -0.8 -0.2 -2.9 -3.1 -2.7 January February March 104.6 104.8 104.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 3.3 4.5 5.8 104.4 104.6 104.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 3.1 3.7 4.3 94.1 95.0 94.6 -0.7 -0.4 April May June 105.8 106.5 107.2 0.9 0.7 0.7 6.4 6.2 6.2 105.6 106.1 106.4 0.9 0.5 0.3 4.7 4.6 4.1 95.6 96.0 96.9 July August September 107.9 108.0 108.1 0.7 0.1 0.1 4.6 3.4 3.4 106.8 107.0 106.8 0.4 0.2 2.9 2.7 3.2 96.6 97.2 97.1 -0.3 -0.1 1.9 October November December 108.2 108.3 109.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 4.9 5.3 6.4 107.1 107.5 108.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 5.3 5.9 7.0 96.6 94.8 97.8 -0.5 -1.9 11.1 January February March 110.5 110.8 111.5 1.4 0.3 0.6 7.7 9.3 7.3 109.6 110.1 110.5 1.4 0.5 0.4 9.0 9.3 8.1 101.8 101.5 103.7 April May June 112.3 113.2 112.9 0.7 0.8 -0.3 111.8 112.4 112.4 1.2 0.5 0.0 4.8 2.4 2.5 104.5 104.9 103.2 July August September rl!2.8 112.0 112.3 r-0.1 r-0.7 0.3 1.1 r!03.4 101.2 102.3 October November December 112.7 112.7 -0.1 -0.2 1.3 1.0 7.0 2.4 1.1 1988 -0.2 1.0 -0.4 1.1 0.4 0.9 0.6 2.1 4.5 5.4 4.7 5.4 2.1 -2.5 9.0 3.2 14.1 4.1 17.0 22.4 19S9 0.4 0.0 See note on | Graphs of these series are shown on page 48. 1 Changes are centered within the spans: 1989 r4.2 2.2 1.4 0.7 -0.9 112.2 111.4 111.9 -0.2 -0.7 112.4 112.2 0.4 0.4 -0.2 -0.4 102.3 102.7 -0.3 2.2 11.3" 0.8 0.4 r3.2 -0.6 -2.7 -1.6 rO.2 r-2.1 1.1 -4.2 -4.2 0.0 0.4 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. 85 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued IjH PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued Producer price index, intermediate materials, supplies, and components Year and month 332c. Change over 1-month spans x 332. Index (1982 = 100) (Percent) Producer price index, capital equipment 332c. Change over 6-month spans 1 (Ann. rate, percent) 333. Index (1982 = 100) 333c. Change over 1-month spans * (Percent) Producer price index, finished consumer goods 333c. Change over 6-month spans 1 (Ann. rate, percent) 334. Index (1982 = 100) 334c. Change over 1-month spans l 334c. Change over 6-month spans x (Percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 1987 0.1 1.6 1.3 1.3 102.0 102.6 102.9 0.7 0.6 0.3 4.2 4.6 4.8 111.4 111.5 111.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 1.6 2.4 103.4 103.6 103.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 3.8 2.6 3.1 5.7 5.2 4.6 111.6 111.9 112.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.3 103.9 103.9 104.5 0.2 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 5.0 4.5 4.7 112.0 112.1 112.2 0.1 0.1 2.2 2.2 1.4 104.3 104.2 103.9 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 1.4 1.4 1.0 104.3 104.6 105.0 0.7 0.3 0.4 5.1 5.7 6.9 112.8 113.1 113.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 2.5 2.9 3.2 104.6 104.6 105.0 0.7 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.7 3.7 April May June 105.7 106.3 107.1 0.7 0.6 0.8 7.0 7.0 7.0 113.4 113.7 114.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.7 2.8 4.5 105.3 105.6 105.8 0.3 0.3 0.2 3.7 4.3 4.4 July August September 107.9 108.2 108.6 0.7 0.3 0.4 5.6 5.1 4.5 114.3 114.7 115.7 0.3 0.3 0.9 3.9 3.7 3.9 106.5 106.8 107.3 0.7 0.3 0.5 4.0 4.2 4.6 October November December 108.6 109.0 109.5 0.0 0.4 0.5 5.4 5.8 6.2 115.6 115.8 116.2 0.2 0.3 4.6 4.8 3.1 107.4 107.8 108.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 5.7 7.2 7.4 January February March 110.8 111.3 111.9 1.2 0.5 0.5 7.3 6.9 5.4 116.9 117.4 117.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 3.1 4.2 4.5 109.5 110.6 111.2 1.2 1.0 0.5 10.1 April May June 112.5 112.7 112.4 0.5 0.2 2.5 1.1 0.7 117.4 118.2 118.8 -0.1 0.7 0.5 2.7 4.6 112.0 113.1 112.9 0.7 1.0 July . August September . . . . . . . 112.2 111.9 112.3 r!18.8 119.0 120.2 rO.O rO.2 4.1 3.4 October November December 112.3 112.2 119.8 120.2 -0.3 100.0 0.8 0.7 0.2 4.3 5.4 6.2 111.2 111.0 111.1 April May June 100.3 100.8 101.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 5.5 5.1 5.3 July August September 101.8 102.3 102.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 October November December . . . . . . . 103.1 103.4 103.6 January February . . . . . . . . March January February . . . . . . . . March 99.1 99.8 0.4 -0.2 -0.4 1988 -0.1 1989 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 0.4 0.0 -0.1 See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 48. 1 Changes are centered within the spans: -0.4 -0.9 1.0 0.3 r3.3 -0.2 rl!2.2 111.5 112.5 r-0.6 r-0.6 0.9 113.2 113.0 -0.2 8.7 8.9 r5.0 1.6 2.4 2.2 -0.2 0.6 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. DECEMBER 1989 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued ' WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY Average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls x Year and month 340. Index 340c. Change over 1-month spans 2 (1977 = 100) (Percent) Current-dollar compensation Real earnings Current-dollar earnings 340c. Change over 6-month spans 2 (Ann. rate, percent) 341. Index 341c. Change over 1-month spans 2 (1977 = 100) (Percent) 345. Index 341c. Change over 6-month spans 2 (Ann. rate, percent) (1977 = 100) 345c. Change over 1-quarter spans2 345c. Change over 4-quarter spans2 (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 1987 January February March 171.3 171.9 172.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 2.6 2.0 2.1 94.7 94.7 94.4 -0.7 April May June 172.5 172.9 172.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 2.3 2.6 2.9 July August September 173.2 174.1 174.6 0.2 0.5 0.3 October November December 174.9 175.6 175.7 January February March 1.5 186^2 -0.3 -2.4 -3.1 -3.3 94.1 94.0 93.7 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -2.1 -2.0 -1.5 187.4 2.8 3.3 3.3 93.7 93.8 93.7 -0.1 -1.3 -0.5 -0.1 18916 0.2 0.4 0.1 4.0 3.0 2.8 93.5 93.8 93.7 -0.2 176.6 176.7 177.0 0.5 0.1 0.2 3.6 3.5 3.3 93.8 93.7 93.5 April May June 178.0 178.7 178.6 0.6 0.4 3.1 3.2 3.8 93.6 93.6 93.2 July August September 179.3 179.5 180.3 4.0 3.0 93.2 92.9 93.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 2.6 3*.9 4.7 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 3^5 4.2 7.0 192.9 4.9 1988 October November December ; 181.5 181.4 pl81.7 -0.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.6 -0.1 pO.2 p3.5 (3) 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.0 -0.4 -1.2 -1.8 -1.1 -1.0 -1.3 0.2 p-1.0 0.1 (3) 93.1 92.9 -0.2 p92.7 p-0.2 (3) (3) 2.4 0.1 -0.5 -1.0 5.1 194.0 5.6 4.8 196.7 5.2 5.5 199°.2 5.9 202°6 !:! 1989 C) January February March o 5.1 204*6 5.4 5.6 April May June 207.4 July August September r5.0 r209.9 October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50. x Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts. 2 Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter. 3 This series has been discontinued by the source agency. •DECEMBER 1989 87 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued KB WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued Negotiated wage and benefit decisions Average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector— Continued J Year and 348. Average first-year changes © Real compensation 346. Index (1977 = 100) 346c. Change over 1-quarter spans 1 346c. Change over 4-quarter spans 1 (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) Output per hour, all persons, business sector 349. Average changes over life of contract © (Ann. rate, percent) 370. Index (1977 = 100) 370c. Change over 1-quarter spans1 370c. Change over 4-quarter spans x (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector (1977=100) 1987 January February March -3.7 . . . ... ... April; May . June . .'. ; . . ; .. 1.1 2.1 ... ... 4.1 3.9 -6'.7 100 '.8 -2.1 ... October November . . . . . . . , December . . . . . . . ioi.3 i'.9 ... 107^7 2*.4 10SL6 2.9 109!5 i'.j Il6!2 i'.5 ni'.o 6'.9 Il6'.5 CL5 nils l!5 112*.6 ri.'i lli',6 ... 2.5 1.0 100.5 ... 2.6 ••• July . . , August September . . . . . . . 0.5 110 '.7 -6'.4 100 '.3 no'.o 2.1 0*2 3.8 ^ 111..7 ... 3.3 i.o 3.4 2.4 2.8 112L5 1988 , January February ; March . -1.2 1.8 1.8 C)'.9 2.5 113*.2 ... 3.1 1.0 April May . June ... . , July August September . . .'. . 101.3 2.4 3.4 0.4 3.2 3.5 1.4 3.1 113!4 0.6 101.7 -2.1 112'.6 6'.4 101.4 October November . . . . . . . December . . . . . . . I ioi'.o 0.2 2.1 6!2 .. . 113!5 1989 January ' February March April : May ,. June July . ^ August September -0.3 .,..'.:. 10.i'.7 . ... ioi!5 p3.2 -0.7 1.1 p3.4 113*.8 6'.7 p5.0 1.6 p3.4 114 '.2 lli!9 ... 2.6 . 102.1 p3.9 rl.7 P2.7 rll2!6 rlli.'? October November December . . . . . . . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50. Changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter. DECEMBER 1989 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS Civilian labor force Year and month 441. Total 442. Civilian employment Number unemployed 37. Persons unemployed 444. Males 20 years and over (Thous.) (Thous.) 445. Females 20 years and over 446. Both sexes 16-19 years of age (Thous.) (Thous.) 447. Number unemployed, full-time workers 448. Number employed part time for economic reasons (Thous.) (Thous.) Civilian labor force participation rates 451. Males 20 years and over (Percent) 452. Females 20 years and over (Percent) 453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age (Percent) (Thous.) (Thous.) January February March . . . 118,873 119,119 119,263 110,969 111,271 111,459 7,904 7,848 7,804 3,649 3,594 3,532 2,864 2,822 2,870 1,391 1,432 1,402 6,430 6,382 6,231 5,187 5,326 5,168 78.2 78.1 78.1 55.7 55.8 55.9 54.2 54.8 54.4 April . . , May June 119,394 120,102 119,647 111,789 112,524 112,287 7,605 7,578 7,360 3,482 3,443 3,440 2,757 2,708 2,640 1,366 1,427 1,280 6,110 6,039 6,043 5,122 5,098 4,979 78.1 78.2 78.0 56.0 56.3 56.2 54.5 55.6 53.6 July August September 119,884 120,245 120,008 112,613 113,019 112,896 7,271 7,226 7,112 3,340 3,259 3,165 2,674 2,662 2,666 1,257 1,305 1,281 5,895 5,814 5,664 5,103 5,046 5,050 78.0 77.9 77.9 56.3 56.4 56.3 53.8 56.0 54.1 October November December 120,429 120,527 120,701 113,225 113,460 113,740 7,204 7,067 6,961 3,194 3,114 3,061 2,620 2,602 2,605 1,390 1,351 1,295 5,756 5,655 5,562 5,142 5,287 4,979 78.0 78.0 77.8 56.4 56.4 56.5 55.1 54.8 55.4 January February March 121,035 121,165 120,936 114,055 114,273 114,129 6,980 6,892 6,807 3,106 3,053 3,064 2,568 2,596 2,450 1,306 1,243 1,293 5,550 5,526 5,473 5,113 5,101 5,087 77.9 78.1 77.9 56.6 56.7 56.6 55.9 55.0 54.1 April May June 121,328 121,203 121,524 114,660 114,403 115,001 6,668 6,800 6,523 2 9 941 3,065 2,889 2 9 471 2,492 2,485 1,256 1,243 1,149 5,338 5,413 5,163 4,953 4,676 5,073 78.1 78.0 77.8 56.6 56.5 56.6 54.5 54.5 56.2 July August September 121,658 122,000 121,984 115,034 115,203 115,370 6,624 6,797 6,614 2 9 832 3,077 2,905 2,565 2,467 2,456 1,227 1,253 1,253 5,215 5,491 5,293 5,102 4,972 4,862 77.8 78.0 77.9 56.7 56.8 56.8 55.9 56.1 56.0 October November . . . . . . . December 122,091 122,510 122,563 115,573 115,947 116,009 6,518 6,563 6,554 2,911 2,996 2,953 2,413 2,445 2,422 1,194 1,122 1,179 5,176 5,273 5,317 4,727 4,819 5,033 77.8 77.8 77.8 57.0 57.4 57.3 55.2 55.1 55.2 January February March 123,428 123,181 123,264 116,711 116,853 117,136 6,716 6,328 6,128 2,938 2,853 2,688 2,455 2,306 2,367 1,323 1,168 1,073 5,295 5,024 5,028 4,837 4,697 4 S 709 78.1 78.1 78.1 57.7 57.5 57.5 56.0 54.8 54.9 April May June 123,659 123,610 124,102 117,113 117,215 117,541 6,546 6,395 6,561 2,952 2,705 2,737 2,448 2 S 480 2,570 1,146 1,210 1,254 5,247 5,104 5,131 4,930 4,609 4,801 78.3 77.9 78.2 57.6 57.7 57.7 55.7 55.8 56.6 July August September 123,956 124,018 124,040 117S459 117,597 117,456 6,497 6,421 6,584 2,734 2,790 3,038 2 9 613 2,468 2,353 1,150 1,163 1,193 5,218 5,183 5,255 4,505 4,553 4,612 77.9 77.8 77.9 57.9 57.8 57.8 55.2 56.5 55.6 124,105 124,515 117,545 117,786 6,561 6,729 2,902 2,992 2,472 2,492 1,187 1,245 5,218 5,354 4,466 4,556 78.0 78.0 57.5 57.8 56.6 57.0 1987 leas 1989 October . November December . . . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shorn on page §1, ICII 1989 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES IH RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES Federal Government l Year and month 500. Surplus or deficit (Ann. rate, bit. dol.) 50.1. Receipts (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) HH DEFENSE INDICATORS State and local government l 502. Expenditures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 510. Surplus or deficit (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Advance measures of defense activity 511. Receipts 512. Expenditures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred (Mil. dol.) 525. Defense Department prime contract awards 543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products (Mil. dol.) 1987 January February March -199^4 86CL7 I 5 06o!i 46^3 637 !i 59618 25,911 34,669 28,986 11,166 13,121 12,272 196,585 199,440 199,308 6,129 7,650 9,769 April May June -137.7 926.2 1,063.8 6C)'.4 658.9 598^5 33,794 32,801 30,475 11,359 11,782 12,104 200,411 202,504 204,177 11,265 9,907 10,128 July August September -143.9 921.5 1,065.5 50.5 659^6 609 !i 31,867 32,619 34,065 12,913 13,595 13,683 207,148 209,556 215,074 9,882 9,179 9,102 October November December -leiii 937^4 1,101.7 4816 668.9 620 !9 29,233 30,794 24,532 10,555 9,353 11,820 212,355 212,086 205,974 9,864 9,824 7,036 January February March -isiis 944^7 1,096^5 5CL8 684! 8 63416 31,157 33,243 31,595 8,289 11,821 12,096 208,366 210,637 212,335 9,223 8,480 8,065 April May June -14l'.5 973-2 1,114*.7 52^4 699^2 646 !7 33,172 32,294 36,167 15,035 13,958 13,721 210,520 214,223 219,469 9,871 8,215 13,829 July August September -122^5 977^3 I,099l8 49.8 70616 656^2 29,691 29,004 27,652 17,438 9,758 10,980 219,349 219,239 220,134 6,995 8,037 7,472 October November December -16?!6 994^6 1,16211 45*.7 716°.5 670'.8 31,118 34,783 31,522 217,720 222,122 223,937 10,695 8,391 10,407 January February March -147!5 1,03612 1,183.7 48^8 732l6 683! 8 31,580 30,058 30,859 226,193 224,553 219,856 6,815 8,159 10,461 April May June -145.4 1,053.2 1,198.6 47.5 742.6 695.1 31,395 30,056 29,495 222,194 221,337 216,120 8,551 7,572 8,938 r-144.*7 rl,043.2 rl,187.9 r44.9 r750.3 r705.5 30,996 p28,530 220,028 p217,509 7,626 7,956 rlO,639 1988 (NA) 1989 July August September (NA) (NA) r9,668 pll,173 October November . . . . . . . December See note on | Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53. Based on national income and product accounts. 1 90 DECEMBER 1989 OTHER IMPORTANT 1} I GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Ill DEFENSE INDICATORS-Continued National defense purchases Intermediate and final measures of defense activity Year and month 557. Index of industrial production, defense and space equipment (1977 = 100) 559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products 561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 580. Defense Department net outlays, military (Mil. dol.) 588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (Mil. dol.) 570. Employment, defense products industries (Thous.) Defense Department personnel 577. Military on active duty (u) (Thous.) 578. Civilian, direct hire employment (Thous.) 564. Federal purchases of goods and services, national defense (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 565. National defense purchases as a percent of GNP (Percent) 1987 January February March 187.3 188.9 188.6 31,122 31,233 31,169 158,833 157,779 158,084 22,243 24 9 096 23,259 89755 8,704 9,464 1,590 1,589 1,590 2,179 2,172 2,168 1,060 1,066 1,069 288 '.6 6.6 April May June 189.2 189.3 188.6 31,597 31,624 31,709 160,358 160,898 161,816 23,593 22,760 24,046 8,991 9,367 9,210 1,583 1,584 1,577 2,158 2,153 2,151 1,070 1,070 1,076 294 '.0 6*.6 July August September 188.7 189.1 189.8 32,174 32,553 32,668 162,605 162,741 162,316 22,858 24,340 21,513 9,093 9 9 043 9,527 1,577 1,576 1,574 2,158 2,167 2,174 1,078 1,080 1,088 300.2 eis October November December 190.3 188.7 188.9 33,171 33,936 33,504 163,247 164,130 161,860 25,816 21,276 26,329 8,933 8,941 9,306 1,574 1,572 1,569 2,172 2,174 2,167 1,086 1,085 1,082 296.8 e!i January February March 190.6 191.0 189.9 33,656 33,859 33,945 162,206 162,089 160,841 20,786 23 9 441 23,752 8,877 8,597 9,313 1,570 1,566 1,558 2,166 2,162 2,142 1,076 1,071 1,067 297^4 eis April May June . 187.9 185.5 184.6 34,069 34,695 35,328 162,171 162,009 167,117 26,548 20,130 23,765 8,541 8,377 89721 1,559 1,557 1,556 2,108 2,100 2,104 1,060 1,054 1,045 298 '.6 6^2 July August September 184.9 184.9 184.5 34,799 34,071 34,839 165,449 164,451 163,092 24,243 23,321 20,636 8,663 9,035 8,830 1,550 1,548 1,542 2,111 2,122 2,138 1,034 1,039 1,048 296. "l s.'o October November . . . . . . . December 184.0 182.2 180.5 35,410 35,351 35,373 165,356 165,087 165,397 27,027 24,443 26,357 8,431 8,660 10,097 1,536 1,534 1,530 2,130 2,130 2,122 1,044 1,044 1,048 300 ! 5 6*6 January February March 180.0 179.3 178.7 35,777 35,793 36,416 163,482 163,238 165,250 20,843 23,426 26,053 8,730 8,403 8,449 1,530 1,529 1,529 2,124 2,123 2,116 1,054 1,058 1,058 298.7 5*.8 April May June 179.9 180.7 181.1 36,362 36,786 36,776 165,168 164,043 163,756 21,035 24,087 26,829 8,633 8,697 9,225 1,528 1,530 1,526 2,110 2,111 2,115 1,061 1,063 1,059 301.3 5^8 July August September 182.0 r!82.7 r!82.1 37,100 37,402 r37 9 031 163,189 162,209 r!63,616 21,068 23,926 p29,634 8,193 8,936 r9 9 232 1,522 1,515 rl,513 2,117 2,126 2,130 1,055 1,066 1,075 r307.8 5^8 October November December r!75.7 p!77.1 p37 5 710 r!64 9 925 p!67 9 284 r8,359 p8 5 814 pi, 506 p2,128 pl,069 1988 1989 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55. iicsi DECEMBER 1989 91 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES E U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS HI MERCHANDISE TRADE 602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments 604. Exports of domestic agricultural products 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery 612. General imports Year and month (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 616. Imports of automobiles and parts 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 1987 January February March 18,377 19,371 19,981 1,926 2,047 2,157 3,452 4,404 4,098 32,189 31,186 32,247 2,269 3,598 3,513 4,882 6,322 5,329 April May June 20,250 20,111 21,381 2,234 2,410 2,445 4,122 4,176 4,338 32,317 33,484 34,141 2,842 3,685 3,375 5,516 6,093 5,823 July August September 22,472 20,845 21,669 2,956 2,520 2,625 4,260 4,420 4,717 34,927 34,506 34,015 4,125 4,574 3,439 5,800 6,008 5,307 October November December 22,136 23,327 24,187 2,593 2,409 2,472 4,407 5,371 5,371 36,253 35,219 35,758 3,780 3,292 3,158 6,776 6,342 6,560 January . . . February March 24,669 24,839 26,762 2,759 2,893 3,033 5,040 5,177 5,442 35,165 36,325 36,338 3,541 3,536 3,225 5,441 5,659 5,677 April May June 26,040 27,446 26,706 3,027 3,382 3,120 5,288 5,374 5,353 35,360 36,137 37,304 3,226 3,802 3,060 6,220 5,507 5,351 July August September 26,612 27,478 27,578 3,311 3,357 3,493 5,457 5,778 5,876 35,074 37,623 36,750 3,122 3,360 2,927 5,378 5,888 6,354 October November December . 27,889 27,538 28,864 3,090 2,909 2,995 5,698 5,709 6,393 37,121 38,087 39,668 2,718 2,645 3,347 6,589 6,291 6,946 January . . . February March 28,980 28,839 30,064 3,143 3,201 3,666 5,338 5,990 6,162 37,877 38,220 39,549 3,619 3,326 4,095 5,627 6,326 6,282 April May June 30,758 30,455 31,285 3,387 3,618 3,638 6,150 4,937 6,382 39,045 40,534 39,293 4,730 4,680 4,001 5,869 5,770 5,289 July August September 30,468 30,561 r30,680 3,657 3,139 3,274 6,371 6,290 6,413 38,709 40,662 r39,194 4,130 4,227 4,000 5,621 5,426 6,215 October November December 31,008 3,173 6,412 41,210 4,141 5,894 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 1988 1989 (NA) (NA) See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 56. 92 DECEMBER 1989 iiCIl OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES LS. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS) Merchandise, adjusted Goods and services Year and month 667. Balance (Mil. dol.) 668. Exports (Mil. dol.) 669. Imports (Mil. dol.) 622. Balance (Mil. dol.) 618. Exports (Mil. dol.) x ; Income on investment 620. Imports (Mil. dol.) 651. U.S. investment abroad (Mil. dol.) ; 652. Foreign investment in the United States (Mil. dol.) 1987 January February March -31,190 104, 3i5 135,505 -38,661 57,255 95,91(5 25,117 19,755 April May June -35,555 105,694 141,249 -39,819 60,615 99,834 22,744 20 9 554 July August September -36,687 110,922 147,609 -40,606 64,297 104,903 23,578 21,904 October November December -26,055 125, 2.11 151,266 -40,4i4 68,699 10'9.',il3 33,265 20,207 January February March -28,682 127,810 156,492 -33,446 76,447 109,893 26,750 23,955 , April May June -30,586 126,800 157,386 -31,411 78,471 109,882 23,148 25,613 July August September -28,964 131,573 160,537 -30,339 80,604 110,943 24,720 27,310 October November . December -23,659 143,626 167,285 -32,019 83,729 115,748 33,159 28,670 -26,864 142,169 169,033 -28,378 87,9i9 116,297 26,830 29,246 April May June r-29,216 r!45,921 r!75,137 -27,554 91,423 118,977 ... r26 5 644 r32,765 July August September p-19,031 pll9,320 p33,808 p31 5 i97 1988 1989 January February March « p!54,636 p!73,667 p-27,751 p91,569 October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 57. Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports). 1 ItCIft DECEMBER 1989 93 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES F I INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS IHI INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 47. United States, index of industrial production Year and month (1977 = 100) 721.0ECD 1 European countries, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) 728. Japan, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) 725. West Germany, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) 726. France, index of industrial production 722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) (1977 = 100) 727. Italy, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) 723. Canada, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) 1987 January February . . . . . . . . March 126.2 127.1 127.4 113 116 116 142.2 141.5 143.6 112 113 113 105 109 110 110 113 112 114.2 117.6 120.2 124.9 126.4 127.1 April May June 127.4 128.2 129.1 116 117 116 142.5 140.2 145.5 116 117 114 109 110 111 113 114 112 117.9 122.3 118.7 127.9 127.6 128.9 July . . August September 130.6 131.2 131.0 117 116 117 146.7 146.7 149.0 114 117 116 111 111 111 115 116 114 118.1 113.2 117.5 130.5 132.0 133.2 October November December 132.5 133.2 133.9 119 119 118 151.4 152.0 153.7 117 117 116 111 112 112 117 116 117 122.7 121.2 116.5 134.3 135.3 135.6 January February . . March 134.4 134.4 134.7 120 119 120 154.4 158.5 157.9 117 117 117 112 112 113 117 115 117 126.9 121.5 124.1 136.0 136.2 137.4 April May June 135.4 136.1 136.5 120 120 121 157.8 156.4 159.2 117 118 120 112 113 115 117 118 119 124.8 123.1 125.4 137.5 138.8 139.0 July August September . . . . . . . 138.0 138.5 138.6 122 123 123 157.9 162.3 162.5 118 122 121 116 116 117 119 119 120 128.5 126.0 124.1 138.6 140.6 140.2 October November December . . . . . . . 139.4 139.9 140.4 r!23 124 124 160.6 165.2 165.7 121 r!21 122 rl!4 118 117 119 r!20 rl!9 127.6 129.1 132.2 139.0 138.2 139.2 140.8 140.5 140.7 125 124 124 167.4 164.4. 173.2 r!23 122 122 118 117 117 118 118 118 127.9 130.3 126.9 138.9 139.5 139.2 141.7 141.6 142.0 r!27 r!24 126 167.0 168.0 171.4 126 120 125 120 118 120 118 rl!7 rl!7 127.0 125.2 128.9 140.2 140.4 139.9 July August September 141.9 r!42.5 r!42.1 r!28 127 p!27 167.1 172.1 169.4 127 127 p!27 121 121 pl!8 118 120 pl!9 130.7 r!29.1 p!28.7 139.6 139.9 p!40.5 October . . . . . . . . . November December r!41.3 p!41.5 (NA) p!69.3 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 1988 1989 January February March April May June . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 58. 1 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. 94 DECEMBER 1989 HOI OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued UH CONSUMER PRICES United States Year and month 320. Index @ (1982-84=100) Japan 320c. Change over 6-month spans 1 (Ann. rate, percent) 738. Index © (1982-84=100) West Germany 738c. Change over 6-month spans 1 (Ann. rate, percent) 735. Index © (1982-84=100) United Kingdom France 735c. Change over 6-month spans x (Ann. rate, percent) 736. Index© (1982-84=100) 736c. Change over 6-month spans * (Ann. rate, percent) 732. Index © (1982-84=100) 732c. Change over 6-month spans * (Ann. rate, percent) 1987 January February March . 111.2 111.6 112.1 5.0 5.1 5.3 103.9 103.9 104.3 2.5 0.6 1.5 104.6 104.7 104.7 1.3 1.5 1.2 119.6 119.8 120.0 4.1 3.9 3.4 117.5 118.0 118.2 5.4 3.8 2,6 April May June 112.7 113.1 113.5 4.4 4.5 4.0 105.3 105.5 105.3 2.1 3.3 2.1 105.0 105.0 105.2 1.7 1.7 1.0 120.6 120.8 121.1 2.2 2.5 2.5 119.6 119.7 119.7 2.2 2.0 2.7 July August September 113.8 114.4 115.0 3.8 3.7 3.6 104.7 104.8 105.8 -0.9 1.0 -0.2 105.2 105.1 104.9 0.6 0.4 0.8 121.3 121.6 121.7 2.3 2.3 2.8 119.6 120.0 120.3 3.7 4.6 4.8 October November December 115.3 115.4 115.4 3.9 3.3 3.7 105.8 105.3 105.1 0.0 -1.7 -0.6 105.0 105.0 105.2 -0.2 0.0 1.0 122.0 122.1 122.2 2.3 2.2 2.5 120.9 121.5 121.4 4.2 4.0 4.0 January February March 115.7 116.0 11.6.5 3.9 4.0 4.4 104.8 104.6 105.0 1.3 -0.2 0.4 105.4 105.6 105.7 1.1 1.7 1.3 122.4 122.6 123.0 2.6 2.8 2.3 121.4 121.8 122.3 3.8 3.8 4.5 April May June 117.1 117.5 118.0 4.4 4.7 4.9 105.6 105.7 105.5 1.0 2.3 1.3 106.0 106.2 106.3 2.1 2.3 1.9 123.6 123.9 124.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 124.3 124.8 125.2 5.7 7.7 8.3 July August September . . . . . . . 118.5 119.0 119.8 4.8 4.5 4.5 105.3 105.6 106.4 1.3 2.5 1.9 106.3 106.3 106.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 124.7 125.0 125.3 3.3 3.3 3.7 125.4 126.8 127.4 9.5 8.9 8.7 October November December 120.2 120.3 120.5 4.8 4.9 5.1 106.9 106.5 106.2 1.7 -0.2 0.9 106.4 106.7 106.9 3.2 3.2 3.8 125.6 125.8 126.0 3.4 3.2 3.5 128.7 129.2 129.6 8.8 7.9 7.2 January February March 121.1 121.6 122.3 5.6 6.2 5.9 106.0 105.7 106.2 3.0 3.4 4.0 108.1 108.4 108.6 4.6 4.5 4.3 126.5 126.8 127.2 3.9 4.2 3.7 130.4 131.4 131.9 6.9 7.9 8.3 April May June 123.1 123.8 124.1 5.2 4.3 3.6 108.1 108.7 108.6 4.4 4.4 4.4 109.2 109.5 109.6 2.8 2.2 2.2 128.0 128.5 128.7 3.3 3.5 3.2 134.3 135.1 135.6 8.1 7.0 7.9 July August September 124.4 124.6 125.0 3.3 2.9 108.4 108.3 109.2 3.2 (NA) 109.5 109.4 109.6 (NA) 129.0 129.2 129.5 3.5 (NA) 135.7 136.1 137.0 7.3 7.4 October November December 125.6 125.9 198S 1989 110.0 (NA) (NA) : 130.1 (NA) 138.1 139.2 See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 59. Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month. IIOI DECEMBER 1989 95 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES F I INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued |H CONSUMER PRICES-Continued Italy Year and month 737. Index © (1982-84 = 100) Q| STOCK PRICES 733c. Change over 6-month spans 1 19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks © 748. Japan, index of stock prices @ 745. West Germany, index of stock prices © 746. France, index of stock prices @ 742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices @ 747. Italy, index of stock prices © 743. Canada, index of stock prices © (Ann. rate, percent) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) Canada 737c. Change over 6-month spans x (Ann. rate, percent) 733. Index © (1982-84-100) 1987 January February March 131.6 132.1 132.6 4.2 4.8 4.5 115.8 116.3 116.8 4.2 4.6 4.4 287.7 305.6 318.1 1,493.7 1,577.6 1,676.0 302.0 278.9 282.4 642.3 660.4 708.3 840.5 916.9 972.3 526.4 502.8 501.8 378.4 395.4 422.5 April May June 133.0 133.5 133.9 4.8 6.0 6.5 117.3 118.0 118.4 5.1 5.2 4.7 314.7 314.5 327.8 1,857.4 1,937.7 1,966.6 297.5 295.7 306.9 726.4 703.9 664.8 956.1 - 1,040.9 1,097.5 533.0 519.3 507.5 420.0 416.4 422.6 July August September 134.3 134.7 135.6 6.7 6.3 5.6 119.2 119.3 119.3 4.5 3.8 3.9 337.3 358.3 346.6 1,807.8 1,903.4 1,889.0 320.4 333.3 322.8 692.1 705.0 730.1 1,154.7 1,101.1 1,121.0 494.6 459.7 451.7 455.4 451.3 440.9 October November December / 136.9 137.2 137.5 5.3 3.9 3.6 119.7 120.2 120.3 3.2 2.9 3.5 304.8 266.5 262.1 1,833.0 1,677.8 1,655.2 299.4 229.2 219.4 633.1 508.5 484.9 1,027.7 794.1 810.4 449.8 366.8 361.1 341.2 336.5 357.1 January February March 138.2 138.5 139.2 3.4 . 3.5 4.0 120.6 121.0 121.6 3.5 4.4 4.2 272.5 280.8 289.1 1,656.1 1,797.8 1,910.6 208.4 218.4 232.4 465.0 501.8 510.3 863.3 858.5 888.0 348.9 334.0 377.1 345.4 362.1 374.4 April May June 139.6 140.0 140.5 4.5 6.0 5.8 122.0 122.8 123.0 4.4 5.2 4.7 285.7 278.6 294.4 1,961.2 1,963.0 1,979.2 230.8 225.4 240.6 523.6 546.1 609.5 879.6 878.4 906.7 383.2 359.7 372.7 377.4 367.1 388.9 July August September 140.9 141.5 142.2 6.0 7.1 7.0 123.7 124.1 124.2 4.8 3.6 3.6 292.7 286.9 291.5 1,972.0 1,988.3 1,924.2 247.6 248.1 254.8 632.4 618.7 636.1 932.0 908.5 872.4 399.7 416.5 392.9 381.6 371.3 371.0 October November . December 143.3 144.5 145.0 6.9 6.7 7.0 124.8 125.1 125.1 4.4 4.2 4.6 301.8 294.8 300.8 1,923.3 2,008.1 2,084.8 266.3 266.5 273.7 682.9 698.4 746.7 908.5 899.5 865.1 431.9 432.9 426.4 383.7 372.3 383.0 January February March 146.1 147.3 148.0 7.8 6.9 7.4 125.7 126.6 127.2 4.5 6.2 7.2 310.5 319.8 318.4 2,207.6 2,237.4 2,188.6 284.2 284.2 287.3 799.8 814.5 810.8 926.6 1,007.8 1,029.5 433.8 411.7 409.6 408.7 403.6 404.3 April May June 149.0 149.6 150.3 7.0 6.4 6.0 127.6 128.9 129.6 6.4 5.8 6.1 328.8 341.5 352.2 2,231.0 2,284.3 2,241.9 295.9 295.9 309.7 838.9 847.3 885.0 1,023.5 1,053.6 1,065.6 426.8 422.2 447.0 409.9 418.9 425.0 July August September 150.7 150.9 151.6 5.7 5.4 130.4 130.5 130.7 5.7 4.4 361.1 377.0 377.8 2,287.9 2,383.6 2,378.2 313.4 328.6 338.2 890.5 904.1 934.0 1,107.8 1,149.9 1,155.9 476.9 506.4 rp511.1 448.7 453.1 445.5 October November December 153.1 153.7 377.9 370.1 p378.8 2,417.0 rp2,465.4 p2,598.4 327.0 (NA) 902.3 rp868.5 p921.6 (NA) rp479.7 rp470.8 p480.1 442.8 445.5 p448.6 1988 1989 131.2 131.6 See note on | Graphs of these series are shown on page 59. Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month. DECEMBER 1989 HOI CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected leading index components Year and month 92. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders in 1982 dollars., durable goods industries 1 Selected lagging index components 83. Index of consumer expectations 1 2 62. Change in index of labor cost per unit of output., manufacturing ® Smoothed 3 Actual (Bil. dol.) (Bil. Smoothed 3 Actual 1 dol.) (1st Q 1966=100) 120. Change in consumer price index for services 1 Smoothed 3 Actual (Ann. rate 9 percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 5.2 4.1 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.0 (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 1987 January February March -3.66 -1.17 0.78 -0.79 -1.01 -0.90 80.9 81.6 83.3 11.0 -5.1 2.6 -0.3 -0.6 -0.3 April May June 4.20 3.89 3.58 -0.15 0.84 1.78 84.7 80.6 80.8 -9.1 -2.6 -2.6 -1.4 -2.1 -2.6 5.2 4.1 2.0 4.2 4.4 4.1 July August September 4.90 2.04 83.3 85.8 84.2 -8.4 -3.7 -2.6 -0.12 2.75 3.23 3.05 13.0 0.1 4.1 6.2 3.0 3.9 4.2 4.1 October November December 2.40 1.37 1.16 2.87 2.55 2.18 80.4 72.7 76.7 -7.6 0.7 1.2 0.7 5.1 5.0 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.4 2.58 2.24 2.02 1.95 1.38 80.9 81.9 85.2 0.8 1.4 3.4 6.0 5.0 4.0 4.7 4.9 4.8 1.25 0.99 1.59 82.4 87.3 85.7 -9.1 -3.4 2.9 1.8 1.8 3.9 4.9 3.9 4.7 4.7 4.5 82.3 88.8 89.5 -6.7 -0.9 0.7 0.3 3.9 5.9 3.9 4.4 4.5 4.5 9.2 1.8 -4.3 ISIS January February March -2.01 April May June 2.86 -0.10 6.59 3.6 4.5 13.9 7.2 July August September -0.20 1.90 2.24 2.11 October November December 2.81 0.43 6.58 2.12 1.91 2.41 87.0 86.3 85.5 13.8 -8.2 -5.9 2.4 2.2 1.0 5.8 5.8 5.8 4.6 4.9 5.2 2.56 1.06 1.88 2.72 2.68 2.55 89.9 88.8 87.6 1.8 7.2 17/7 0.4 1.0 3.5 4.8 5.7 5.7 5.3 5.4 5.5 3.80 2.64 2.31 2.20 83.2 80.1 82.0 -15.0 0.0 0.9 2.6 1.6 1.0 2.8 5.7 3.7 5.2 5.1 4.8 2.22 1.57 85.5 80.3 88.6 5.3 1.2 rl.7 rl.4 rl.9 6.6 3.7 1.8 4.9 4.8 4.4 87.2 84.3 r25.6 p-11.9 5.6 7.4 4.2 4.6 1.32 3.02 7.2 -0.2 1989 January February . . . March April May June -0.20 2.91 July August September 2.81 -2.70 rl.04 October November December . . . . . . . rl.72 p3.15 rl.ll 0.93 pi. 12 4.4 E>r5.4 D5.1 See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13 and 15, 1 These series reached high values before 1987: series 92 actual (8.31)s series 92 smoothed (4.40), and series 83 (97.7) in March 1984; series 62 actual (29.6) in March 1986; and series 120 actual (8.4) in July 1984 and smoothed (5.8) in September 1984. 2 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center. 3 This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada. !!€§! DECEMBER 1989 97 for C. Year Jan. Feb. Mar, 10. Apr. May ne July Ju Aug. Sept Oct. Nov. Dec. 11 Q 6,35 8.37 9.89 10.72 8.10 10.01 9.89 10.13 11.21 11.59 13,37 15.04 6,01 8.72 10.56 9.57 8,26 10.35 10.44 9.90 11. 14 6.61 9,45 10.17 9 . 02 9.02 10.46 10.26 10,59 10.95 14.23 15.53 14,08 15.84 16.80 25.18 27.00 26.43 26,17 27,92 35.22 42.79 37.86 43.52 48,84 62.72 82.68 80,98 84,18 89,58 70.64 89.65 95.20 93,85 95.76 17.69 22.53 28.13 23.90 27.27 29.99 37.74 43.44 42.26 44,44 •' 55.46 64,68 78,33 73.73 87.01 74,16 78.06 92,95 92.67 91,03 104.00 2.20 2.50 3,35 3.65 2.7? 3.09 2,24 2.72 3.26 3.55 2.67 3.19 1.91 3,15 3,28 3.52 2.66 3.73 1.96 2.93 3.40 3.15 2.69 3.35 2,00 2.80 3.56 3 ..2 9 2,72 3.46 2 .05 2 .99 3 .60 3 .13 2 .85 3 ,54 2.15 2,97 3.43 3.06 2.75 3.61 2.15 3.15 3,41 3.13 3.13 3.22 2.31 3.33 3.33 2.83 3.14 3.63 2.43 3,20 3.34 2.89 3.04 3.50 2.25 3.45 3.79 2.89 3.00 3,30 2.40 3.45 3.58 2.74 2,91 3.49 1962... 1963... 3.62 3.80 3.94 3,91 3,65 3.88 3.85 3.98 3.68 4,36 3 .61 3 3,65 3.66 3.64 3.73 4.00 4.08 1965... 4.89 4.93 5,22 5.25 5,18 5 .10 5.27 5.08 5.49 5.51 5.45 5.82 1967... 1968... 5,30 7,74 5.69 7.81 5.81 9.63 5 . 7 0 .. 5 , 8 8 7.97 7,32 6 ,11 7 .24 6,05 8,30 6.26 8.39 6.09 7.77 6,19 9.29 6,22 7,98 6,40 8.75 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 9.20 8.21 8,75 11.26 8.86 8,94 9.23 11.95 8,37 9,02 9.94 12,01 8.00 8.89 9.81 12.. 6 8.10 8.65 10.79 12.85 7 .80 9 .73 9 .39 12 .73 8.15 8.00 10.47 13.04 7.72 8.88 9.69 13.11 7,94 9.39 11.07 13.02 7.04 8.49 10,65 14.41 8.11 9.25 10.98 14.55 8.90 9.54 11.21 13,90 1975.., 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980,,, 1981,,, 1982... 13.38 14.47 16,36 19.75 25.28 28.44 29.05 31.89 12.45 14.15 16.60 22.45 27,39 26.02 26.37 30.05 12,03 14.90 15.88 20.52 30.01 26,52 28.76 27.64 13.77 14,81 17,54 20.63 27.49 25.86 30.47 26.49 14.34 13.66 19.04 22.75 24.61 22,82 27.97 23.96 14 ,15 15 .97 18 ,88 2 1 ,30 26 ,23 25 ,05 28 ,57 23 ,71 13,24 17,16 17,14 23.25 26,88 26.90 28.71 24.77 14.63 15.32 19.07 24.04 25.21 26.00 27.88 23.07 12,53 16.55 20.55 25,19 26.64 26.67 27,35 24.41 12,52 16.98 18.55 28,64 27,03 27.28 27,59 24.60 12,76 12.04 16.23 16.49 18,30 20,93 24.53 22.71 27,19 27.45 26.43 28.21 26.88 25.81 23.65 25.05 1984... 1985... 1986... 1987... 29.38 29.27 30.19 31,78 29.77 32.98 32.52 31,99 30.50 32.95 31.14 31.99 29,57 30.28 30,64 33.63 32.70 30.52 30,10 34.90 3 0 .68 3 1 ,87 3 0 ,29 35 .47 32.16 31.93 30.64 37.49 29.82 31,63 30,02 35.01 30.27 33.78 31,05 34.52 30,74 33.43 31.76 35,60 30.65 30.14 32.03 35.44 eorrsACTs ASD ORDERS FOR PLAST A»B EQUIPMENT 30,29 33,88 33.50 38.2? 26,05 36.64 41,33 37.83 34.33 41.11 40,62 41.28 45.11 49.49 56.74 63.19 75,32 71,70 98,19 109.24 98.19 106.99 121.98 154.99 176 .77 157.84 186.69 218.84 275,76 321.41 316.20 335,41 309.29 312.15 366.53 382.66 373.88 416,09 TOTAL FOR P KR10D 99.20 135,37 141,03 121.88 107.56 126.53 124.91 126.91 138.42 150,88 8,21 11.59 11.59 10.02 9.88 9.81 10.50 11.26 11.25 12,35 14.21 8,78 12,20 11.10 8.95 9,86 11,14 10,64 10.50 11.13 12.72 14,42 9.32 11,55 11,04 9,21 9.55 .10.75 10.33 10.75 11.38 12.99 14.50 8,60 9.13 12.44 1 2 , 2 9 1 2 . 4 4 11.69 9,19 8.76 9.32 9,02 10,11 1 0 , 6 7 9 . 9 1 10.76 11,47 10.52 1 2 . 2 2 12.61 13.82 13.94 15.52 15.73 24.13 31.55 34.96 35.00 25.45 22.86 32.74 36.41 30,93 25,88 25.16 34,80 34.49 28.79 28,34 30.19 31.24 34.48 35.33 32.05 30.49 34.14 37.71 43.07 31 .67 32.44 33,59 37.09 1 6 . 5 3 17 .19 19*87 19 . 6 6 24.56 23 .08 20,39 19 .51 20,88 2 3 .54 2 5 , 1 2 2 1 .56 2 9 . 3 8 ' 2 8 ,66 31,57 28 2 4 , 1 9 2 3 ,77 16. 22, 22. 20. 19. 24. 29. 17,50 22.78 22.67 19.14 21,22 22.64 29.47 17.06 20.91 25.49 19,89 22,51 25,77 29.12 17.31 24.89 22,74 17.47 20.18 24.79 32.30 17.29 17.63 21.20 23.25 22.46 22.83 20,08 22,01 22.02 22.67 25.50 26.12 32.26 30.78 47.54 68.55 71.52 67,18 64.36 64.83 81.56 49.76 60.91 73,53 60.09 66.10 69.29 86. 14 51,47 66.10 71.09 59.47 62.82 72.64 88.02 52,23 69.34 68,03 59,56 64,87 76.41 95.34 1 88 49 217.80 201.00 264,90 284,17 246 ,30 258.15 283.1? 351.06 22. 0 24,49 20.84 20.78 21.05 19.64 26,76 29,03 35.60 30.20 32.44 26.59 25,91 28,74 31.78 31.68 26.33 29.63 24.03 26,40 25. 1 31.89 34.12 30.08 29.98 24,71 25.65 28,14 32,60 31.89 29.31 28.93 22,97 26.76 30.29 34.08 33.44 29.85 28.19 24.31 28.75 26.88 38.32 33,40 30.46 28.22 24.48 30.12 26.95 32.92 33.11 29.29 27.38 23.49 27.93 30.55 30.19 33.39 30.97 26,21 24.94 27.96 35.22 31.54 32.68 3 4 ,29 33.93 34,12 36.36 36.07 32.77 36.44 65 .34 70.83 75.22 90.29 107.13 96.42 90.91 90.35 70.79 92.26 102.03 71.41 71.46 83.87 90.23 100.62 84,95 92.14 74,29 79.17 96.08 98.51 67.63 77 .77 83.94 98.5? 99.45 89,24 87.10 71,99 81 .16 95.74 104.41 61.47 77.29 84.38 101.43 99.90 90.72 81,81 72,91 86,01 95,75 105.28 265.85 297.35 327 ,41 80.52 07,10 61,33 51.96 09,54 17,13 79.83 10.23 36.22 38,58 39.88 40 .28 42.82 40,28 40.00 41,11 40.29 42.96 107.97 130.10 118.74 132.93 123.10 140.54 124.36 137.00 474.17 540.57 4.91 7.08 8.83 7.77 6.79 8,71 8,66 8.20 9.19 10.1? 12.95 16.01 14. 9 19. 6 24. 3 19. 3 22, 0 25, 5 32. 9 37. 1 32.57 37.32 45,28 56,26 67,80 65.78 74.07 63,57 65.38 79.70 78,16 77.14 89,11 100,73 8,38 9.46 11.90 11.99 8,70 9.59 10.01 10.83 11.09 11.57 14.31 8.50 10.25 11.56 11,55 8,40 9,87 10.23 10.50 12.11 11.94 12.93 7,25 11.84 11.50 11.46 8.35 11.61 9.95 9.91 11.28 11.82 13.43 7.41 11. 10 11.81 10.18 8,42 10.40 10.80 10.07 11.78 12,14 13,55 7,62 10,52 12,24 10.65 8.50 10.66 10.81 9,93 11.29 13,41 14.56 1967... 1968... 1969, ,. 1970, ,. 1971... 1972... 1973.,, 1974.,. 1975.,. 14.98 21.13 24.05 23.50 20.10 20,45 25,98 30.29 23.33 16.09 2.1.30 24.61 22,60 22,03 21,39 27.76 30.92 21,53 16.47 26.12 22.86 21.08 22.23 22.99 27.82 31.71 20.48 16.04 21.38 25.89 20,19 21,68 22,61 28.10 29.71 23,45 1977... 1978... 1979.., 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983... 25.39 28.82 33,39 34.10 31.67 32.30 23,61 25.54 32.26 35,72 30.97 28.45 30,27 23,25 24.29 29.21 38.02 31.35 30.79 27,78 23.93 1985... 30,30 36.51 1987... 35.45 36.31 7,83 11.12 12.36 10.10 8.96 10.86 10.44 10.49 11.07 12.16 14.96 2 8 ,37 2 9 .42 3 3 ,34 28 .42 30 .07 23 .67 2 6 ,86 1 1 3 4 9 3 3 NEW O R D E R S l& C O R R E 8 T D O L L A R S , S 0 8 D E F E S S E CAPITAL GOODS I N D U S T R I E S ( B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS) 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 198... 19 9... 19 0 . . . 1,78 2,09 2.72 2.96 2.28 2.62 2,73 1.86 2.29 2.55 2.96 2.16 2.70 2.83 1.56 2.62 2.68 2.83 2.21 3.06 2.78 1.65 2.30 2.82 2,61 2.25 2.79 2.90 1,61 2.31 2.99 2.63 2.26 2.92 2.89 19 2 . . . 19 3... 3.06 3.21 3,27 3.29 2.92 3.34 3.20 3, 5 3.02 3.49 19 5... 19 6 . . . 19 7 . . . 19 8... 19 9 . . . 19 0... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974.., 1975... 1976,., 1977... 1978... 1979,,. 1980., a 1981.,, 1982... 1983,., 1984... 1985.,, 1986,,, 1987,,, 1988... 4.13 4.79 4.43 6.74 6.85 7,18 6,81 7.28 9.49 12.26 11.94 11,25 13,89 16.10 21,13 25.40 25.41 26.98 20.91 25.62 24,83 25,70 27,20 33.87 4.06 5.25 4.69 6.71 7,99 7.09 7.36 8,05 10.04 12,51 10.83 11.62 13,79 '17.76 23.99 23.45 22.48 23.09 18.39 25.80 28,54 27,36 27,28 33.82 4.40 5.17 4,73 8.43 7.44 6.77 7.38 8.37 10,40 12.97 10,30 11.69 13,84 17,44 25.99 23,64 24.98 23,40 19.97 26.33 27,91 26.84 26.88 31.92 4, 4 5. 3 4. 8 7, 7 8. 8 6. 8 7, 2 8. 9 10.80 12.61 11.16 12.37 14.65 18.58 22,1? 23,37 25.92 23.06 21,71 25.64 25.46 25,86 28.73 33.75 4.23 5,37 4.88 6.06 7,64 6.80 7.21 9.12 10,96 12.58 10.83 12.46 14.73 18.88 22.41 20.50 23,92 20.28 21.09 27.73 25,43 25,67 30,63 31,52 2,43 2.77 2.52 2.29 3.03 2.78 2.59 2.84 2.56 2,46 2.79 2.78 2.57 2.84 2,42 2.56 3,04 2.75 2.64 2.88 2.36 2,48 2.93 2.69 2.77 3.21 2.33 2.58 2,74 2,60 2,87 3.07 2.16 2.47 2.96 2.86 ,97 .33 3.00 3,36 2.99 3.47 3,06 3.53 3.11 3.54 3,34 3,45 3.15 3.61 5,20 7.00 7.95 8.75 6.65 8.38 S..34 8,26 9.25 9,84 4.46 5.57 5.13 6.99 ..7.42 6,68 6,68 8,89 11,00 14.34 11.36 14.08 15,06 19.36 22.82 24,08 24.75 21,29 21,49 27,36 26.68 26,07 32.28 36,21 4,34 5,20 5.24 6.65 7.49 6,36 7.12 8.30 10,74 13.39 11.07 12.86 15.32 20.12 22.65 21.67 24.48 18,99 21.92 25.45 26,98 25.53 29.85 38,81 4.50 5.46 4,99 6,37 8.56 6.62 8.02 9.33 11,15 13,42 10.85 13.36 16.46 21,45 23,64 23.51 23.73 20.35 24.05 26.00 2l,53 26.35 29,39 34,86 4.63 5.36 5.04 7,68 7.29 6.20 7.26 9.01 12.04 12.00 11.07 13.94 16.71 23.07 23.75 23.85 23,16 21.30 25.59 26,03 27.90 27.31 30.22 34.62 4 . 7 2 t. . 5 . 0 5 5.15 5.19 5.12 5.40 6.73 7.27 7,66 7.20 6.79 7.48 7.77 8.15 9.35 9.56 12.31 12.11 11.88 11.61 11.45 10.72 13.31 14.10 15.90 17.14 21.4? 19.95 23.04 23.85 22,52 24.73 23,36 21.29 19.96 20.43 23.20 23,81 26.06 25,70 25.28 29.31 27,31 28.36 30.66 33,03 35,82 39,43 12,59 15.21 13.85 2 .88 2 .28 2 .04 2 ,55 2 .70 29.93 37,74 33.07 34.56 41,52 51,30 71.11 72.49 72.87 73,47 59.27 77.75 81,28 79,90 81,36 99,61 .38 .31 ,03 .93 .51 .35 8.17 7.94 10,53 12.42 10.58 12.49 15.90 18,80 23.22 21.91 24.23 20,23 22.58 26,33 27,27 25.61 29.75 35.46 2? .05 36.28 35.17 27.16 27 .89 31.53 31.00 32.74 36.2 1 40.75 45.75 TOTAL FOR P E R I O D 1 2 ,47 3 .02 2 .53 2 .28 .00 .8? NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user, 'This series contains- revisions beginning with 1979. 18.40 24.46 27.51 23.81 26.27 31,23 39.1? 47.37 40.40 49 .03 56.76 72,48 78,73 79.57. 83.94 72.25 79.35 92,25 97.34 91.71 107 .02 7.08 10.10 10.71 8.52 8,95 10.29 10,03 10,66 11.81 13.34 15.06 16,78 18,48 8.81 6,02 6.60 4,05 7.28 2.84 2.86 3.17 7 .32 49.70 57,78 75.88 81,6? 81.92 80 , 2 8 73.30 84.10 91,68 97,45 97.29 109.31 8,17 11.01 11.80 9.82 8.60 11.06 10,53 10.68 11.21 12,02 14,06 1954.,, 1955.,, 1956... 1957... 1958,,, 1959,,. I960.., 1961,., 1962.., 1963... 1964... MANUFACTURERS' Annual i« 1982 DOLLARS' ( B I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S ) 24. IV Q TOTAL FOR P E R I O B 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 3958... 1959... 20. HI Q IQ C O N T R A C T S AND O R D E R S FOR PLA8T ASS E Q U I P M E N T IS C U R R E N T COLLARS ( B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS) 5.43 7.59 8,45 7,50 7,31 8,86 8.31 8,93 9.05 10,36 11.76 13.30 16.23 15.36 20.01 23.47 19,66 21.82 26.52 32.89 41,15 33,28 40,30 46.84 60,93 69,11 69.26 72.96 60,63 67.46 78,81 82,19 77,95 91,52 109,88 5.71 8,28 9,16 6,85 7,53 8.63 8.15 8.86 9.60 10,60 12.22 14.40 15.70 15.56 21.68 22-. 15 20.47 23,18 27,92 36.46 35.49 33.24 41,35 49.75 64.49 70,64 71,10 67,81 61,69 72.60 77.79 82.49 82.98 93.91 109,87 21,25 29.95 34.39 30.87 28,28 34.58 33.46 34.25 37.09 40.97 47.28 53.24 63.15 59.46 82.83 91.93 80,60 89.15 103.39 131,5? 151.99 132,16 153.53 183.39 232.98 278.66 278,63 287.71 259.36 264,71 314,05 324,12 317.97 355.90 420.09 (DECEMBER 1989} C* for Year Jan. 27. 1954... 1955... 1956.,. 1957 . .. 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962. . . 1963... 1964... 1965. .. 1966. . . 1967. . . 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971. . . 1972. . , 1973... 1975.. . 1976... 1977. .. 1978. . . 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982. . . 1983... 1984... 1985... 1986... 1987... 1988. . . Feb. Mar. MANUFACTU RERS1 A Dr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. 6.88 8.40 8.72 9.30 6.56 8.12 8.31 8,10 9.65 9.71 10.29 11.78 14.96 5.7 9.5 9.1 8.8 6.7 9.18 8.18 8,10 8.59 9.88 11.03 12.75 14.68 6.07 8.37 9.50 8.14 6.81 8.34 8.50 8.05 9.40 9.89 10.83 12.58 15.08 5.94 8.41 9,98 8.19 6.85 8.70 8.50 7.85 8.87 10.29 12.01 12.23 15.12 6.08 8.94 10.04 7.86 6.89 8.88 8.46 8,29 8.75 9,77 12.35 12.63 14.89 6.47 8.74 9.21 7.81 6.94 8.93 8.18 8.67 8.82 9.86 11.36 12 .87 15.57 6.43 9.23 9.36 7.88 7.44 8.22 8.19 9.10 8,81 10.20 11.48 12.50 14.49 7.18 9.02 9.21 7.40 7.78 8.95 8.10 8.59 9.02 10.35 11.42 12.94 15.18 7.15 9.24 9.27 7.19 7.52 8,63 7.94 8.67 9.14 10.38 11.70 13.33 14.81 17.96 17.72 17.86 16.46 16.95 22.02 17 ,84 20.64 17.65 17 .98 18.56 23.49 22.38 19.18 16.66 18.10 19.26 24.24 15.94 19.63 16.89 17.28 15.57 19.21 15.68 19,69 18,32 18.88 16.53 15.82 17.41 19.03 15.53 16,93 16,60 19.96 20.86 18.29 21.45 23.43 27.97 30.56 27 .81 27.38 20.88 18.74 18.50 21.08 25.36 31.32 17.49 19.20 21.05 24.68 32.84 28.06 1 J.22 2 2.83 1 5.51 1 7.48 1 2 5.11 7.17 1 8.97 19.72 2 2.20 2 3.09 2 8.76 2 7.37 6.75 9.63 10.24 7.08 7 .80 8.07 7.69 8.96 9.84 10.11 11.81 13.56 14.16 13.76 17.44 25.23 26.38 18.23 20.08 22.05 26.25 28.93 23.73 23,84 25.45 17 .77 20.06 23.81 25.93 29.63 24.96 24.99 28.66 19.15 22.43 22.31 26.52 29.11 24.38 25.82 18.47 20.30 22 .40 27 .26 28.78 24.55 16.39 19.16 21.76 25.14 25.21 18.02 20.89 24.11 28.98 29.80 26.39 15.26 17.20 21.03 27 .31 21.90 18,35 21.50 24.11 30.86 29,49 26.74 16,62 18.43 21.80 27 .58 21.32 18.86 20.70 23.38 28.86 28.21 25.10 23.27 18.43 23.52 20.28 23.12 22.12 20.34 21.42 20.23 2 3 . 16 21.24 22.18 26.24 28.31 31,40 39,89 32.45 31.67 32.18 30.61 30.44 31.73 27.14 29.02 34.29 28.06 29.38 36.16 30.14 30.10 35 .30 29.20 29.70 38.32 18.89 22.52 26.94 29.93 29.81 35,82 20.26 24,96 27.56 31.63 30.30 35.57 21,17 26.36 27 .61 31.12 30.65 36.45 19 .81 23.84 28.09 28.42 31.61 36.19 32.6 36.3 39.2 37.9 40.6 43.2 42.8 46.2 33.2 36.9 39.5 37.9 40.6 43.6 42.6 46.9 49.3 53.5 58.0 63.5 65.8 67.2 57.6 64.1 65.0 67.0 58.8 64.9 67.7 76.8 76.9 75.7 77.2 93.4 99 .2 92.3 95.2 99.3 00.9 09.2 08.7 09,5 02.5 97.9 94.5 99.6 91.0 96.5 99.7 100,6 108.8 110.5 109,6 101.1 98.7 75.9 76.3 82.8 90.9 98.9 91.9 94.3 100.9 100.4 109.0 110.6 108,4 103.3 97.9 1985. . . 1986... 1987... 1988... 120.5 125,4 124,9 136.0 21.7 25.2 26.4 136.2 123.4 127,1 137.4 33.2 37.8 38.8 38.3 41.5 42.2 43.3 47.1 49.3 19.20 25.63 27.25 27.49 18.09 25.72 29.52 24.19 20.08 26 ,99 27,78 23.09 21.09 28.79 29.25 20.85 78.46 107 .13 113.80 95.62 8.72 8.45 8.51 9.28 10.55 12.08 14.49 14.23 14.44 18.86 25 .19 24.52 24.26 27.27 29.04 32.87 ! 36.52 43.36 37.77 58.18 25.92 25,46 24.19 27 .02 29.95 35.19 37.44 45.09 39.93 50.73 26.10 24.47 26.36 26.65 30.41 34.26 38.31 45 .24 41 ,59 52 .33 25.42 24.08 26.14 28.26 31.04 35.59 -41.38 43 .20 41,79 56 .26 102,63 98.53 100.95 109.20 120.44 137.91 153,65 176,89 161,08 2 17 .50 18.31 19.32 22.41 27.05 20.80 17.46 21.70 24.93 26 .56 29.16 27.24 21.64 20.34 24.7 1 27 .22 32.35 52.17 52.54 54.77 69.75 82.95 57.09 55 .99 63.58 73.47 92.13 86.67 48.08 54.45 58.08 74.18 79.00 54.97 59.86 68.06 78.27 87.32 76.06 48.45 51.91 61.68 74.51 79,69 55.64 63,62 68.82 82.76 87 ,69 77.94 50.19 54.95 65 .24 81,94 64.02 54.67 63.90 72.42 86.28 86.86 79.08 74.17 59.59 80.86 89.30 63.69 66.70 83.63 85 .34 60.39 69.66 83.18 90.76 38.44 95.31 105.75 109.71 61.32 74.91 82.92 91 .89 95.06 111.08 198.89 213.85 239 . 7 7 300,38 305 .66 222,37 243,37 272,88 320,78 354,00 319.75 302.75 259.57 270,86 330.59 357 ,29 363.79 421.85 490.67 5.2 8.6 8.1 8.3 2.5 2.4 5.3 8,9 1.8 35.5 38.9 37.7 38.5 43.3 42.6 45.5 48.5 51.9 59.2 0.6 61.6 35.7 39.1 37,8 39.3 42.3 42.3 45.7 48.4 52.5 56 .8 62.2 67.4 71.2 7.0 1.7 66.4 72.2 67 .4 72.7 74.9 79.3 85.1 96.5 97.8 92.5 75 ,2 81.5 85,2 93.8 97.8 91.7 74.6 81,9 87.2 94.8 96.6 91.9 74.7 82.2 88.7 96.1 96.8 90.9 75.6 81.5 89.7 97.4 95,3 93.0 75.7 82.4 90.2 97.3 95.2 94.6 100.2 101.8 110.7 106.4 110.9 94.9 104.1 100.1 102.5 110,9 106.0 106.2 97.1 107 .0 99.5 105.1 111.0 108.6 108.6 96.3 109.0 100.3 105.4 110.7 09.1 07 ,1 94.5 07 .8 100.4 106.7 10.0 09. 1 04.7 96.1 09.6 100.5 108.7 108.8 109.5 104.4 95.8 112.8 100.0 99.7 99.9 100.4 109.0 109.9 109.2 102.3 98.2 109.4 106.2 111.3 22,3 135.3 138.2 125.4 124.9 135.6 139.2 121.6 124.7 126.1 136.5 122.7 123.6 128,1 138.4 110.9 07 .0 08.6 96.1 06.7 18.8 24.1 21.9 31.9 39.8 109,8 09.2 05.4 95.5 10.1 19,5 25 .4 23.3 135,1 138.8 34.3 38.1 38.7 38.3 41.4 42.3 44.2 48.0 50.3 34.3 38.5 38.7 38.6 41.6 41.7 44.8 48.8 50.0 35.1 38.3 38.9 38.5 41.6 42.0 44.5 48.0 50.0 58.6 58.7 59.1 60.2 65.5 69.0 65.5 70.2 65.7 70.6 66.3 70.7 74.9 77.4 75.3 78.5 93.6 97.8 91.9 93.9 99.3 90.1 74.4 79.2 85.1 94.5 98.1 91.1 98.7 1 02.7 108.2 107.9 1 12.0 98.3 100,7 99.8 101.3 110.4 105.4 110.8 98.5 101.2 100,7 103.2 109.5 105.4 111.1 97.0 104.5 125.9 127.9 137.5 123.3 127.6 138.8 121.5 128.9 139.0 A V E R A G E FOR P E R I O D 31.9 36.2 39.2 37.9 39.5 42,6 42.2 45,9 48.4 53.1 57.4 63.3 65 .1 67.6 72.1 34.0 37,4 38.8 38.6 41.3 42.6 43.6 47.7 50.0 122.2 130,5 138.6 121.7 132.0 140.6 121.9 133.2 140.2 122.6 134.3 139.0 30.9 32.7 36.5 39.1 37,8 40.3 43.5 42.8 46.4 48.8 53,9 58. 1 30.5 33.8 37.8 38.8 38.4 41.4 42.4 43.7 47 .6 49.9 54.4 58.8 30,7 34.9 38.5 38.6 38.5 41.9 42.0 44.9 48.6 50.6 55.1 60.0 31.4 35.8 39.1 37.8 39.1 42.7 42.4 45.7 48,4 52.5 56 .7 62.4 65.2 67.3 74.0 76.1 76.8 82 .4 92.9 99.2 91.7 65.6 69.9 74.5 74.9 78.4 84.7 94.0 98.4 91.0 66.9 7 1.2 74.6 74.9 80.9 85 .8 95.0 97.4 92 .0 67.1 72.3 75,1 75.3 82.0 89.5 96,9 95,8 92.8 961. D I F F U S I O N I N D E X O F A V E R A G E W E E K L Y HOURS O F P R O D U C T I O N OR N O N S U P E R V I S O R Y WORKERS-U 1954. .. 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960. . . 1961. . . 1962... 1963... 1964. .. 1965. . . 92.5 35.0 5.0 7 ,5 2.5 5 .0 2.5 5.0 82.5 0.0 60.0 82.5 30.0 77.5 17 .5 62.5 12.5 57 .5 60,0 42.5 82.5 25.0 22.5 62.5 72.5 32.5 57.5 77,5 55,0 52.5 75.0 1967 . . . 1968.., 1969... 1970... 19-71. ,. 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975.,, 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... 1986... 1987.,, 1988... 72.5 15.0 52.5 35.0 75.0 50.0 42.5 27.5 27.5 92.5 15.0 2,5 32.5 52.5 60.0 5,0 80.0 70.0 27,5 30,0 57.5 37.5 5.0 90.0 17.5 17.5 22.5 72.5 92.5 42.5 10.0 27.5 97.5 77,5 50.0 42.5 22,5 95,0 12,5 85.0 20.0 17,5 80,0 32,5 47.5 15.0 87.5 32.5 72,5 57.5 50.0 37.5 30.0 35.0 35.0 87,5 70.0 2.5 60,0 17.5 100,0 12,5 97.5 87,5 17.5 62.5 75.0 45.0 82.5 42.5 42.5 60.0 42.5 62.5 22,5 42.5 80.0 32.5 25.0 70.0 40.0 35.0 67;5 57.5 77.5 20.0 17.5 42.5 82.5 77.5 57.5 5.0 37.5 52.5 90,0 85.0 5.0 57.5 15.0 30.0 90.0 42.5 12.5 70.0 62.5 22.5 70.0 35.0 47.5 72.5 7.5 17.5 30.0 77.5 30.0 45.0 35.8 75.8 30.0 69.2 54.2 60.0 85.0 30.0 55.0 42.5 27 .5 30.0 90,0 52.5 35.0 75.0 12.5 27.5 90.0 50.0 95.0 40,0 5,0 87.5 15.0 82.5 77.5 57.5 12.5 80,0 45.0 92,5 30.0 55.0 60.0 40.0 60.0 52.5 80.0 32.5 40.0 80.0 22,5 82.5 67.5 55.0 22.5 15,0 77,5 92.5 45.0 77,5 45.0 45.0 57.5 72.5 35.0 32.5 82.5 55.0 30.0 57.5 30.0 75.0 70.0 22.5 60.0 62.5 37.5 35.0 42,5 80.0 50.0 35,0 35.0 57.5 52.5 62.5 55.0 52,5 20.0 27 .5 62.5 32.5 50.0 87.5 17.5 52.5 32.5 40.0 87.5 52.5 42.5 57,5 27.5 75.0 80.0 72,5 27,5 52.5 82.5 62.5 10.0 17.5 47.5 85.0 22.5 72.5 27.5 62.5 45.0 65.0 80.0 15.0 30.0 97,5 72.5 62.5 55,0 25.0 80,0 70.0 50.0 42.5 47.5 27.5 75.0 87.5 57.5 25.0 27.5 50,0 75.0 65.0 37.5 42.5 65.0 65.0 62.5 32.5 7.5 62.5 45,0 90.0 52.5 77 .5 32.5 70.0 17.5 45.0 47.5 77.5 70.0 70.0 7.5 72.5 57,5 37.5 70.0 50,0 80.0 22.5 75.0 42.5 62.5 47.5 70,0 40.0 43. 0 72.5 22.5 37.5 45 .0 70.0 60.0 77.5 20,0 32.5 15.0 90.0 57.5 37,5 47.5 62,5 82.5 32.5 60.0 40.0 50.0 90,0 60.0 27.5 22.5 62.5 60.0 41.7 40.0 52.5 28.3 56.7 60.0 61.7 35.8 22.5 51.7 49.2 55.8 50.8 32.5 47.5 39.2 64.2 55.8 48.3 45,0 51.7 44.2 17.5 57.5 17.5 27.5 20.0 45.0 90.0 55.0 10.0 70.0 25.0 • 80,0 82.5 0.0 42.5 55,0 25.0 95.0 100.0 12,5 37,5 10.0 77.5 30.9 34.3 38,0 38.6 38.4 41.6 42.6 44,3 47 .7 50.4 55.0 59.8 64.3 66 ,2 70,2 74.6 75,3 79.5 85 .6 94.7 97.7 91 ,9 100.0 103,3 109.8 08,1 08.6 98.0 04.3 17 .0 23.4 23.4 30.3 38,4 A V E R A G E FOR P E R I O D 30,0 4 .0 9 .5 3 .5 2 .5 9 .5 3 .0 6 .5 5.0 10.0 65.0 70.0 80.0 45.0 25.0 85.0 i T h i s series contains revisions b e g i n n i n g with 1986. series contains rsvislons beginning with 1984. This siries contains revisions beginn ng with 1983, 2 Fhis 3 102.1 58.3 70,0 47.5 40.0 75.0 37.5 80.0 77.5 20.0 Annual 7.19 9.92 9.74 6.58 7 2 3 . CANADA — I N D E X OF I N D U S T R I A L P R O D U C T I O N 2 ( 1977=100) 30.8 32.4 36.3 38.6 37.5 39,8 43.6 42.9 46.0 IV Q II Q ERIOD 6.58 7.68 9.38 9.35 6.93 7,89 8.03 8.06 9.03 9.45 11.55 11.99 13.72 1954., . 1955 . . . 1956... 1957... 1958.., 1959... 1960... 1961. .. 1962. . . 1963. . , 1964... 1965.., 1966... 1967 , . . 1968... 1969. . . 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975. . . 1976. . . 1977... 1978... 1979, . . 1980. . . 1981... 1982... 1983... III Q I Q Dec. NEW ORDERS IN 1982 D O L L A R S , N O N D E F E & SE CAPITAL GOODS I N D U S T R I E S 1 ( B I L L I O N S OF DOLLA I S ) 35.0 34.2 65.8 59.2 46.7 74.2 45.8 57 .5 50.8 44.2 48.3 47.5 55.8 40.0 38.3 57.5 60.8 38.3 46.7 66.7 47.5 67.5 51,7 47.5 26 ,7 50.8 60.0 81.7 52,5 56.7 42.5 49.2 55.0 45 .8 53.3 55.0 48.3 80.0 31.7 28.3 57,5 55.0 58.3 50.0 41.7 43.3 62.5 57 .5 49 .2 37.5 33,3 46.7 58,3 34.2 78.3 38.3 45.8 45.8 55.8 68,3 34.2 38.3 78.3 50.0 57.5 56,7 51,7 53.3 70.0 55.8 47 .5 23.3 58,3 55.8 36.7 57 .5 32.5 52 ,5 71.7 73.3 35.0 50.0 36.7 47.5 60.8 80.8 49.2 42.5 16.7 70.8 63.3 46.7 51.7 51.7 75.8 40.0 65.8 38.3 40.0 66,7 58.3 52.5 40.0 54.0 63,1 41.9 37.7 60.0 55. 35. 64. 46 . 57 . 54. 55 . 50. 47 , 47. 41 . 57 . 54. 50. 33.3 59.6 50.2 52.3 51.2 51.5 50,8 43.1 50.8 65,6 49.6 57.3 50.6 51.2 48.1 (DECEMBER 1989) 99 C. Historical Data for Selected Series— Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. I'Q 961. D I F F U S I O N I N D E X O F A V E R A G E W E E K L Y H O U R S O F P R O D U C T I O N OR N O N S U P E R V I S O R Y WORKERS — 20 M A N U F A C T U R I N G I N D U S T R I E S 1 ( P E R C E N T R I S I N G OVER 9 - M O N T H S P A N S ) 1954. . , 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965. . . 1966... 1967. . . 1968... 1969... 1970. . . 1971... 1972. . . 1973... 1974.. . 1975... 1976... 1977 . . . 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983. . , 1984. . . 1985... 1986. . . 1987 . . . 1988. . . 2.5 100.0 27,5 20.0 10.0 90.0 22.5 42.5 85.0 57.5 72.5 87.5 85.0 10.0 65.0 45.0 5.0 65.0 85.0 57.5 20.0 0.0 82.5 82 .5 70.0 12.5 15.0 95.0 7.5 90.0 82.5 42.5 80.0 67.5 42.5 52.5 100.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 95.0 30.0 87.5 82 .5 35.0 65.0 77.5 85 .0 12.5 70.0 22.5 10.0 87.5 90.0 37.5 10.0 15.0 65.0 90.0 70.0 15.0 0.0 85.0 42.5 90.0 47.5 42,5 50.0 72.5 65.0 35.0 85.0 0.0 17.5 42.5 90.0 27.5 75.0 67.5 95.0 72.5 85.0 55.0 12.5 65.0 22.5 17.5 80.0 90.0 45.0 10.0 22.5 77.5 80,0 65.0 22.5 0.0 75.0 25.0 92.5 47.5 52.5 35.0 85.0 32.5 40.0 85.0 5.0 22.5 67.5 95.0 22.5 95.0 30.0 70.0 90.0 77.5 52.5 25.0 40.0 40.0 12.5 77.5 92.5 35 .0 2.5 60.0 62.5 82.5 57.5 20.0 7.5 50.0 27.5 87.5 30,0 60.0 67 .5 77.5 20.0 42.5 85.0 12.5 12.5 92.5 72.5 10.0 90.0 70.0 82.5 50.0 27.5 42.5 35,0 77.5 42.5 15.0 45.0 80.0 77 .5 2.5 67.5 25.0 82.5 70.0 37.5 2,5 12.5 25.0 97.5 52,5 62.5 42.5 42.5 42.5 ( P E R C I NT R I S I N G 57.5 90.0 15.0 5.0 90.0 42.5 10.0 97.5 50.0 80.0 87.5 52.5 32.5 27.5 87.5 25.0 10.0 65,0 77.5 67 .5 15.0 65.0 15.0 90,0 95.0 20.0 20.0 7,5 90.0 100.0 25.0 67.5 50.0 77.5 57.5 72.5 90.0 12.5 0.0 100.0 42.5 10.0 95.0 47.5 67,5 72.5 62.5 10.0 72.5 32.5 62.5 15.0 75.0 75.0 42,5 0.0 90.0 32.5 40.0 82.5 40.0 32.5 15.0 35.0 100.0 15.0 87 .5 70.0 57.5 * 80.0 80.0 27.5 0.0 95.0 45.0 7.5 87.5 25.0 60.0 95.0 70.0 15.0 65.0 55.0 20.0 15.0 77.5 50.0 27.5 5.0 95.0 42.5 72.5 50.0 25.0 75.0 10.0 62.5 100.0 32.5 90,0 55.0 67.5 92.5 85.0 15.0 5.0 92.5 35.0 35.0 67,5 27.5 50.0 82.5 90.0 15.0 32.5 85.0 22 .5 42.5 77.5 27.5 20.0 35.0 100.0 45 .0 12.5 22.5 77.5 77 .5 5.0 77.5 85.0 5.0 95.0 75.0 87.5 2.5 2,5 2.5 0.0 7.5 12,5 10.0 92.5 17.5 62,5 85 .0 97.5 7.5 72.5 22.5 7.5 32.5 77.5 70.0 27.5 0.0 100,0 60.0 25.0 57 .5 40.0 97.5 7.5 60.0 90.0 7.5 65.0 87.5 37.5 ill Q IV Q Annual AVERAGE FOR P E R I O D 95.0 30.0 57.5 10.0 97 ,5 20,0 15.0 77.5 40.0 55.0 92.5 95.0 12.5 62.5 40.0 15,0 52.5 92.5 67.5 32.5 5.0 95 .0 57.5 60.0 55.0 15.0 92.5 0.0 77.5 70.0 22.5 80.0 82.5 50.0 * , 90.0 55.0 30.0 7.5 95.0 17.5 25.0 95.0 22.5 80.0 57,5 85,0 10.0 27.5 45.0 5.0 45.0 95.0 72.5 7.5 2.5 72.5 50,0 100.0 5.0 20,0 95.0 5.0 95-.0 90,0 15.0 75.0 52.5 60.0 60.0 30.0 95.0 14.2 17.5 22.5 91.7 26.7 68.3 78.3 62.5 70.0 83.3 75.0 11.7 66.7 30.0 10.8 77.5 88.3 46.7 46.7 86.7 10.8 13.3 83.3 70.0 14.2 94.2 50,0 77.5 75.8 52.5 42.5 29.2 68.3 35,8 12.5 62.5 83.3 60.0 81.7 85,0 18.3 1.7 95.8 40.8 17,5 83.3 33.3 59.2 83.3 74.2 13.3 56.7 57,5 35.0 24.2 76.7 50.8 30.0 92.5 42.5 46.7 9.2 96.7 16.7 16.7 88.3 26.7 65.8 78.3 92,5 10.0 54.2 35.8 9.2 43.3 88.3 70.0 22.5 12.5 75.0 84.2 68.3 16.7 5.0 85.0 25.0 90.8 59 .2 45.8 55.0 75.0 46.7 64.2 34,2 85.0 74.2 25.8 10.0 23.3 47.5 95.0 35.8 63.3 53,3 65.8 40.0 95.0 40.0 41.7 51.7 47.5 61.7 10.0 58,3 95.0 17.5 90.8 66.7 70.8 47.5 89.2 55,8 61.7 39.2 25.0 95.0 4.2 77,5 83.3 15.0 73.3 74.2 49.2 46.7 62.7 77.3 22.5 10.4 74.6 54.8 18.8 83,5 47.1 66,2 76.9 75.6 35.2 37.9 57.1 27.5 22.7 76.2 73.1 39.8 9.0 65.2 51.2 68.1 58.3 28.8 42.9 30.6 52.1 91.0 31.9 68.3 62.3 65.2 45.2 AVERAGE FOR P E R I O D OVER 1 - M O N T H S P A N S ) 196 1 ... 1962 . . . HQ ... ,. . ... ... ... !!! 1966 . . . 1968. . . 1969.. ... 1974. . . 1977 . . . 1978... 1979... 1980. . . 1981 . . . 1982... 1983. . . 1984. .. 1985 . . . 1986... 1987. . . 1988... 63.5 62.5 63.9 54.6 58.5 37.2 55 .0 67 .8 58,5 55.4 55.6 60.7 60.5 64.3 61.0 53.4 52.7 47.3 47.9 70.6 52.3 53.7 59 .3 63.5 70.3 70.2 64.8 49.7 54.0 40.1 60.2 65.2 60.2 53.2 61.0 63.0 67 .9 70. 1 52.7 37.4 64.5 41.5 65.6 67 .8 53.2 56.3 61.9 62.8 68.6 64.6 61.6 40.8 57 .0 49.3 66.3 63.3 58,5 63.8 67 ,6 61.3 38.0 53.3 38.1 66,5 67 ,2 51.4 64.5 61,6 55.7 42.3 57.7 42,8 67.2 59.6 57.6 61.3 62.2 53.2 9.0 1.3 9.1 8.9 1.9 65.9 62.0 50.7 55.7 45.8 44.7 70.1 57.2 53.6 61.3 64.3 .3 .8 .3 .2 .6 62. 9 56.3 67.0 70.9 54.2 59.3 40.3 40.1 67.6 59.3 67.9 66.6 53.9 58.6 36.0 43.6 64.6 57.7 58.6 61.3 59.7 67.2 65.3 63.6 60.6 58.0 63.0 55.4 67.8 64.5 60.7 64.8 65.7 63.2 52,6 55.1 41.5 54.4 67.9 57.0 54.1 58.6 , 66.8 67.4 58.5 38.7 58.3 43,0 66. 66. 54. 54. 60. * 63.9 61.9 53.2 52.3 51.6 42.2 68.7 59.6 57.3 56.3 63.0 59.0 65.4 67.3 56.5 60.6 39.5 40.0 66.3 60.0 57.5 58.1 64.3 65.6 5.2 5.6 7.9 1.0 1.1 1.7 63.9 63.4 56.6 55,6 61.5 62.7 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD (PERC!,NT R I S I N G OVER 6 -MONTH SPANS 1973. . . 1977 . . . 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982 . . . 1983... 1984... 1985... 1986... 1987... 1988... 79.1 77.8 74.6 48.6 66.5 28.5 55.2 78.7 58.7 55.6 67.3 69.9 81.8 81.4 73.9 44.7 65.2 29.7 62.2 78.9 59.7 56.6 65.8 70.2 78.7 81.2 71.2 41.1 62.9 33.0 67.3 80.2 58.2 52.7 64.8 71.5 78.4 79.8 66.8 37.4 64.9 38.8 71.1 77.1 57.6 52.9 66.8 73.9 78.1 78.7 63.2 37.1 61.3 37.2 76,4 74.4 58.6 53.4 67.6 73.9 79.7 76.2 57.9 37.5 58.0 36.8 78.2 72.6 57.6 56.0 69.5 69.1 76.2 73.6 62.9 44.4 50.3 34.5 79,4 70.1 57.6 55.6 71.3 70.2 NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain revisions beginning with 1 This series contains revisions beginning with 1982. 100 76.2 76.9 59.5 51.9 43.0 33.8 79.5 68.6 56.2 57.0 73.5 74.6 77 .5 75.6 57.7 61.2 39.0 34.8 78.2 64.9 59.5 62.3 73.2 73.5 76.6 76.8 58,6 70.9 32.2 38.1 77.4 63.9 59.7 61.6 71.5 73.9 78.1 76.1 60.9 68.9 32.5 39.1 78.1 61.6 58.3 62.9 71.8 74.5 78.4 77.8 57.7 66.2 28.7 43.1 77.5 62.6 55.6 63.2 72.2 75.8 79.9 80.1 73.2 44.8 64.9 30.4 61.6 79.3 58,9 55.0 66.0 70.5 78.7 78.2 62.6 37.3 61.4 37.6 75.2 74.7 57.9 54.1 68.0 72.3 76. 75. 60. 52. 44. 34. 79.0 67.9 57.8 58.3 72.7 72.8 77.7 76.9 59.1 68.7 31.1 40.1 77.7 62.7 57.9 62.6 71.8 74.7 78^2 77.7 63.7 50.8 50.4 35.6 73.4 71.1 58.1 57.5 69.6 72.6 (DECEMBER 1989) for Year IQ II Q Series—Continued III Q IV Q Annual AVERAGE 1954. .... 1955 1956 . 1957 1958 1959 I960..... 1961. .... 1962..... 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 .... 1968. .... 1969 1970 1971 1972 1 9 7 3 ..... 1974. .... 1975 ..... 1976 29.51 28.06 36.11 40,62 36,36 34.11 39 .22 37.57 40.03 40.87 49.02 55.57 66.42 72.37 76.27 82.04 90.30 90.59 98.97 113.09 130.12 144.12 150.18 29.16 29.57 37.63 41.37 33.25 35.38 40,63 37 .80 40.75 42,66 50,37 58,34 69.82 72.38 74.73 84.21 92.37 92.90 100.86 118.57 138.81 141.56 154.60 28.67 32.03 38.48 41.07 32.71 36.94 38.94 38.43 41.51 44.81 52.00 60.67 71.72 72.60 76.02 87.91 93.72 92.75 103,27 122.69 143,00 141.04 161.20 28.08 34.08 39.40 39.11 33.03 37.10 38.97 39.54 41.15 46 .34 53.67 63.52 73.63 73.63 78.63 88.80 91.27 95.41 110.50 125. 7 7 146.79 142.93 167 .76 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 .. . 1985 1986 ..... 1987 1988 201.56 240.16 278.51 302.86 322 .24 290.05 340.48 376,46 382.01 377.09 413.34 214.10 250.08 282.09 311.92 316.65 294.82 349.73 389.69 378.06 380.08 220.53 259.76 284.28 323.71 305 .06 308.63 361.70 390.18 375.29 393.05 234.84 269.80 286.38 322.38 298.32 325.59 365.85 392.27 381.70 403.96 442.11 28.86 30.94 37.90 40.54 33.84 35.88 39.44 38.34 40.86 43.67 51.26 59,52 70.40 72,75 76.42 85.74 91.91 92.91 103.40 120,03 139.67 142.42 158.44 184.82 217.76 254.96 282.80 315.22 310. 8 304. 8 354. 4 387 . 3 379. 7 389.67 430.76 2 0 0 . GROSS N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S AVERAGE 1954 ..... 1955 . ... 1956 1957..... 1958 1959 . . I960. . 196 1 1962 ..... 1963 ..... 1964. .... 1965 ..... 1966 1967 ..... 1968. .... 1969 1970. 1971 1972 1973 . . 1974. 1975 1976 . . 1977 1978 1979 1980 ..... 1981 ..... 1982 1983 1984 , 1985 ..... 1986 1987 1988 . 367.9 394.0 419.5 447.3 443.9 485.1 516.1 517.4 564.4 592.1 636.9 682.7 754.8 799.7 862.9 941 .3 994.2 1075.2 1166 .5 1311.6 1426.2 1524.6 1730.9 1899 .1 2111.4 2420.5 2673.0 2978.8 3112 .6 3265.8 3674.9 3925.6 4181.3 4388.8 4739.8 368.1 402.3 425.1 449.4 447.9 497 .8 514.5 527 .9 572.2 600.3 645 .6 695.0 764.6 805.9 886 .7 955.6 1008.9 1094.3 1197.2 1342.9 1459.1 1563.5 1761.8 1968.9 2230.3 2474.5 2672.2 3017.7 3159.5 3367.4 3754.2 3979.0 4194.7 4475.9 4838.5 372.8 410.5 429 .9 456.5 461.0 498.0 517.7 538.5 579.2 613.1 656.0 7 10.7 777 .7 822 .9 903.6 975.4 1027.9 1113.9 1223.9 1369.4 1489.1 1627.4 1794.7 2031.6 2289.5 2546.1 2734.0 3099.6 3179.4 3443.9 3807.9 4 0 4 7 .0 4253.3 4566.6 4926.9 381.2 416.9 438.3 450.9 474,2 502.4 513.0 551.5 582,8 622.1 660.6 732.0 790.9 837 .1 917 .4 983.5 1030.9 1127.3 1263.5 1413.3 1516.8 1678.2 1843.7 2062.4 2367.6 2591.5 2848.6 3114.4 3212.5 3545.8 3851.8 4107 .9 4297,3 4665.8 5017.3 2 0 0 C , P E R C E N T C H A N G E I N GROSS N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T I N C U R R E N T DOLLARS ( A N N U A L RATE, P E R C E N T ) 1954. .... 1955 1 9 5 6 ..... 1957 1958 1959 I960 . 196 1 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966. .... 1967 .. . 1968 1969. .... 1970 1971 1972 1973..... 1974 1975 1976..... 1977 1978 1979...., 1980.... . 1981. 1982 1983 1984 1985 ..... 1986 1987..... 1988 -0.3 14.1 2.6 8.5 -6.1 9.5 11.4 3.5 9.7 6.5 9.9 14.1 13.1 4.5 12.9 10.8 4.4 18.3 14.7 16.1 3.7 2.1 13.2 12.6 9.8 9.2 13.2 19.6 -0.2 6.8 15.4 7.9 7.3 8.8 6.5 0.3 8.6 5.4 1.9 3.7 10.9 -1.2 8,4 5.6 5.7 5.6 7 .4 5 .3 3.1 11.5 6.2 6 .0 7.3 11,0 9.9 9.6 10.6 7.3 15.5 24.5 9.2 -0.1 5.3 6.2 13.0 8.9 5.6 1.3 8.2 8.6 5.1 8.4 4,7 6.5 12.2 0.2 2.5 8.3 5.0 8.8 6 .6 9.3 7 .0 8.7 7.8 8.5 7.7 7 .4 9.2 8.1 8,5 17.4 7 .7 13.4 11.0 12.1 9.6 11.3 2,5 9.4 5.8 7.0 5.7 8.4 7 .5 9.4 6.3 8.0 -4.8 12.0 3.6 -3.6 10.0 2.5 6 .0 2 .8 12.5 7 .0 7.1 6.3 3.4 1.2 4.9 13.6 13.5 7.7 13.1 11.4 6.2 1 .4 .3 1 .9 .9 .2 1 .4 4.7 6.2 4.2 9.0 7 .5 372.5 405.9 428.2 451.0 456 .8 495.8 515.3 533.8 574.6 606.9 649.8 705. 1 772.0 816.4 892 .7 963.9 1015.5 1102 .7 1212.8 1359.3 1472.8 1598.4 1782.8 1990.5 2249.7 2508.2 2732.0 3052.6 3166.0 3405.7 3772.2 4014.9 4231.6 4524.3 4880.6 PERCENT CHANGE1 0.2 9.0 5.5 5.3 1.3 8.5 3.9 3.6 7.6 5.6 7.1 8,5 9.5 5.8 9.3 8.0 5 .4 8.6 10.0 12.1 8.3 8.5 11 .5 11.7 13.0 11.5 8.9 11.7 3.7 7.6 10.8 6.4 5,4 6 .9 7.9 NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain revisions beginning with 1986. 1 Year-to-year differences^and percent changes are computed from annual data. 2 This series contains revisions beginning with 1947. Year 100. NT AND IQ II Q III Q IV Q E X P E N D I T U R E S I N 1982 D O L L A R S F O R N E W P L A N T A N D EQUIPMENT ( A N N , RATE, BIL. D O L . ) AVERAGE 1954..... 1955..... 1956 ..... 1957 1958..... 116.43 110.11 133.30 139.79 124.29 115.02 114,95 137 .44 140.79 112.85 112.73 122.21 137 .91 138.34 109 .80 109.64 128.21 138.31 130.82 109.80 1960 1961..... 1962 1963 1964, .... 1965 1 9 6 6 . .... 1967..... 1968..... 1969 1970. 1971 1972..... 1973. .... 1974...,. 1975..... 1976.... . 1977 ..... 197 8 1979 1980..... 1981 1982 1983.,.., 1984 1985 1986.,... 1987 1988.,... 127.03 123. 14 129.01 129.85 154.28 172.34 201.40 211.07 215.08 220.16 229.19 219.02 225.34 250.69 272.55 256.03 249 .09 273.87 291.40 318.04 339. 6 335. 6 326. 5 290. 6 344. 5 380. 2 386. 2 380.62 417.63 131,46 122.66 131,56 135.80 158.63 181,31 208,20 209.87 208.43 222 .66 230.79 219,78 228.12 258.84 281 .92 245.93 250.83 277 .13 302.83 323.79 335.64 337 .84 316.95 297.34 352.93 394,98 378.71 383.55 431.35 126.21 124.69 133.59 142.58 163.24 186,92 213.33 209.15 209,53 229.63 233.80 216 .68 231.87 264.73 275.20 241 . 6 2 257.41 286 .07 305.16 329.61 330.37 342 .29 302.79 311,99 365.17 394.14 372,41 401.61 436.04 127.08 127.71 131.36 146.38 168.79 194.45 215 .42 210.46 214.34 228.76 2 2 6 .02 220.15 247.18 26 8 . 2 0 270,22 240.98 263.22 280. 17 318.29 336.82 325,56 332,55 296.07 328.62 369.49 396.88 379.37 411 .07 433.51 2 0 0 B . C H A N G E I N GROSS N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S v ' ' 1954 1955 . ... 1956 1957 1958 1959 I960. 1961. .... 1963. .... 1965 1966 ..... 1967 1968 1969 1 9 7 0 . .... 197 1 1972 ..... 1973..... 1974. .... 1975 1 9 7 6 . .... 1977, .... 1978 1979 1980..... 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 .. . . 1988 -0.3 12.8 2.6 9.0 -7.0 10.9 13.7 4.4 12.9 9.3 14.8 22.1 22.8 8.8 25.8 23.9 10.7 44.3 39.2 48. 1 12.9 7.8 52.7 55.4 49.0 52.9 81.5 130.2 -1.8 53.3 129.1 73,8 73.4 91.5 74.0 0.2 8.3 5.6 2,1 4.0 12.7 -1.6 10.5 7.8 8.2 8.7 12.3 9.8 6.2 3.8 4.3 4.7 9.1 0.7 1.3 2.9 8.9 0.9 9.8 1 8.9 4.0 -0.8 38.9 46 .9 101.6 79.3 53,4 13.4 87.1 98.7 4.7 8.2 4.8 7.1 13.1 0.2 3.2 10.6 7.0 12.8 10.4 15.7 13.1 17 .0 16.9 19.8 19.0 19.6 26.7 26.5 30.0 63.9 32.9 62,7 59.2 71.6 61.8 81.9 19.9 76.5 53,7 68.0 58.6 90.7 88.4 358. IN DEX OF OUTPUT PER HOUR, ALL P E R S O N S , BUSINESS SECTOR2 (1977=100) 1954. .... 1955 1956 1957..... 1958 1959 1960. .... 196 1 1962 1963. .... 1964 1965 1966 .. . 1967 1968 1969 ..... 1970 197 1 . 1972 1973. ... 1974 1975 1976 1977 ..... 1978,,... 1979 . 1980 1981 ..... 1982 1983 1984. .... 1985. 1986. 1987 1988 61.1 3. 1 3.4 4.8 5.3 8.7 69.7 70.3 73.7 75.6 79.0 80.6 83.5 84.3 87 .4 88.4 87.1 90.8 92.4 97.0 95.1 93.7 97.7 99.3 100.3 100.6 99.2 100.7 99.0 100,6 103.8 105.0 108.3 107 .7 111.0 61.2 63.6 63.9 64.9 66 .2 69.4 69.5 71.5 73.4 76.6 79.5 81.4 83.4 85.5 88.4 88.1 88.0 90,8 93.5 95.7 94.1 95.8 98.6 99.9 101.3 99.7 98.4 100.3 99.2 102.4 104.4 105.5 108.0 108.6 110.5 62.1 63.8 63.9 65.3 66 .9 68.2 69.4 72.1 74.3 77.3 80.3 82.1 83.7 86 .5 88.6 87.9 89.6 91 .5 94.0 95.5 93.4 97 . 1 98.8 101.2 101,2 99.0 99.0 100.4 99,1 102.5 104.3 106.0 107.5 109.5 111.5 Annual 8.4 6.4 8.4 -5.6 13.2 4.4 -4.7 13.0 3.6 9.0 4.6 21.3 13.2 14.2 13.8 8.1 3.0 13.4 39.6 43.9 27 .7 50.8 49.0 30.8 78.1 45.4 114.6 14.8 33.1 101.9 43.9 60.9 44.0 99.2 90.4 113.45 118.87 136.72 137.44 114.19 117.89 127.94 124.55 131.38 138.65 161.23 183.76 209.59 210.14 211.86 225 . 3 1 229,94 218.91 233.13 260,60 274.96 246 .14 255.14 279.30 304.42 327 .08 332.66 337 .11 310.58 307.04 358.01 391.58 379.40 395.42 430.74 DIFFERENCE1 0.9 33.4 22,3 22.8 5.8 39.0 19.5 18.5 40.8 32.3 42.9 55.3 6 .9 4 .4 7 .3 7 .2 5 .6 8 .2 11 .1 14 .5 11 .5 125.6 184.4 207 .7 259.2 258.5 223.8 320.6 113.4 239.7 366.5 242 .7 216.7 292.7 356 .3 NONFARM AVERAGE 62.4 63.6 64.4 65 .5 68.1 68.8 69.5 73.1 75.1 77.6 80.3 83.2 83.8 86.9 88.6 87.9 89.0 91.1 95.6 95.4 93.3 96 .6 98.5 100.2 101.3 98.6 99.7 99.0 99.5 103.0 104.5 106.2 107 .6 110.2 112.0 61.7 63.5 63.9 65.1 66 .6 68.8 69.5 71.7 74.1 76 .7 79.8 81,8 83.6 85 .8 88.3 88.0 88.4 91 .0 93.8 95.8 93.9 95 .7 98.3 100.0 100.9 99.4 99.0 100.0 99. 1 102.0 104.2 105 .6 107 .7 108.9 111.1 (DECEMBER 1989) 101 CD Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year IQ II Q III Q Annual IV Q 345 . I N D E X O F A V E R A G E H O U R L Y C O M P E N S A T I O N , A L L E M P L O Y E E s, N O N F A R M B U S I N E S S SECTOR (1977=100) 1954. , 1955 . . 1957.. 1958 1959.. I960.. 196 1 . ... 1962 19 3 . . 19 4. . 19 5 . . 19 6 . .. . . 197.. 19 8. . 1 Q 9 . . ... 19 0 19 1.. ... 192 19 3 19 4 . . 19 5 . . 19 6. . 19 7. . 19 8 1Q 9 1980 . ... 1981 . . . . 1982 . .... 1983 . . ... 1984. . ... 1 o 85 . .. 1986 . . 1987 1988 .. . . . 26.1 26 .8 26 .2 27.1 26.4 27 .5 30.2 31.4 32.8 34.4 35.5 37.0 38.2 39.8 41.2 43 . 1 45.8 49. 1 52.5 563 60. 1 64.0 689 74.5 83.1 89.8 97.3 1056 1152 126 .2 140.0 151.3 159.1 164.6 170 8 179.4 1 86 .2 194.0 30.5 31.7 33.1 34,6 35.8 37.2 38.4 40.2 41.5 43.9 46.4 50.0 53.3 572 61.1 64.9 700 76.7 84.7 91.8 99.2 107.4 1177 130.0 142.3 53.3 59.9 65.8 72 2 81.2 87 .4 96.7 30.9 32.2 33.4 34.8 36.1 37.4 38.8 40.8 42.0 44.6 47.1 50.7 54.3 584 62.1 65.8 715 78.8 86 . 1 93.8 101.0 109 .6 1201 133.1 145.4 55.9 60.7 67.6 743 83.2 89 .6 99.2 AVERAGE 26.3 27.3 290 30.7 31.9 33.3 34.7 35.9 37.3 38.6 40.4 41.8 44.2 46.7 50.4 53.9 57.7 61.4 65.3 70.7 77.7 85.3 92.6 100.0 108.6 1188 131.2 143 . 7 154.3 160.4 166.6 173.3 182.1 188.9 197.7 26 .6 27 . 8 7 31. 3 32. 5 33. 7 35. 1 36. 4 37. 9 39. 3 41. 0 42. 5 45 1. 47. 7 51. 8 55. 4 59 0 62. 5 67. 1 72 9 80. 9 87. 9 95. 5 103. 0 12 . 1 22 9 36 .4 47. 7 57. 6 62. 5 69. 0 76 7 85 5. 92 9. 02 .0 345C. C H A N G E IN I N D E X OF AVERAGE HOURLY C O M P E N S A T I O N OVE R AVERAGE 19 4 19 5 19 6 „ . . . . 19 7 . .. . . 19 8 19 9 19 0. . ... 19 1 19 2. . ... 19 3 . . 19 4 . . . . . ... 19 5 19 6 . .... 19 7 198.. ... ... 19 0 19 1 19 2 . . 19 3 . .... 19 4 1975 .. 1 9 7 6 . ... 1977 ... 1978 1979. . 1980. . 1981 .'. 1982 . . 1984. . 1985 1986.. 19 87 . . ... 1988 2 8 4 2 6.5 5.6 40 3 8 4.4 3 5 3.9 3.5 5.2 2.9 6.3 5 5 7.8 7.0 7.5 6 4 6.0 8.7 10.3 9.3 8.8 7.8 8.4 9.6 10.9 .2 .2 1 .3 0 .2 .5 5 1 3 0 4 4 7.0 5.2 38 3 8 4.1 3 7 4.1 3.7 4.5 3.6 6.3 5 7 8.5 6.9 6.5 5 9 7.4 8.7 11.0 8.6 8.7 7.8 8.9 9.6 10.9 8.3 6.7 3 1 4.0 4 5 S.'O 3.9 4.8 3 0 5 4 6.7 4.1 44 4 7 3.1 4.3 3.3 4.1 3.4 4.8 6.1 7 3 6.8 7.2 6.9 6.4 7.7 8.2 11.5 8.0 8.4 8.5 9.1 9.6 10.9 8.1 5.2 3 4 3.8 5 0 3.8 4.2 5.5 3 .6 6 .2 5. 9 4. 0 4 .4 4 5 3. 5 3 .9 3. 0 4. 7 3. 3 5. 9 5. 7 7 6 6. 7 7. 2 6. 8 6. 2 8. 0 9. 5 10. 4 8. 3 8. 1 8. 2 9, 6 10. 4 9. 5 7. 7 4. 3 3 7 3. 8 5 2 3. 5 4. 9 5.4 346C. CHANGE IN I N D E X OF REAL AVERAGE HOURLY COMPENSATIO N 1954.. 1955.. 1956.. 1957.. 1958.. 1959 1 9 6 0 . . ... 1961.. 1962.. 1963 .. ... 1 9 6 4 . . ... 1965 .. . . . 1 9 6 6 . . . .. 1 9 6 7 .. ... 1968 1969 1 9 7 0 . ... 1971. . . . ... 1972 1973. . 1 9 7 4 . . ... 1975 . ... 1976 1 9 7 7 .. ... 1 9 7 8 . . ... 1 9 7 9 .. ... 1980.. 1981.. 1982.. 1983.. 1984.. 1985.. 1986.. 1987.. 1988.. 2.5 2.9 7.5 3.1 -2.5 3 9 8.0 3.3 5.3 2.7 4.0 0.2 2.5 4.8 81 0 6 0.0 4.4 65 4.7 -2.7 2.4 4 2 0.2 3.2 0.8 -4.9 -0.5 6.3 3.6 -0.6 0.8 4.3 -3.7 -1.2 NOTE 2.3 4.9 4.7 0.9 1.1 2 9 0.5 4.5 1.0 0.5 2.8 0.7 3.7 3.2 3.0 0 0 0.8 2.5 3.0 -1.8 0.7 2.6 5 2 0.7 -2.3 -3.9 -1.5 -1.6 -0.4 -2.6 -0.7 -1.1 5.8 -2.1 1.0 4.3 5.0 2.2 1.4 5.5 0 8 2.0 0.8 1.1 1.7 5.3 3.4 2.6 1.4 0.7 1.7 4.2 2.7 2.5 0.5 ' 0.0 -1.1 2 4 1.9 -1,1 -4.6 2.3 -2.3 -0.2 -1.9 0.7 2.6 2.3 1.0 0.4 4.9 3. 3 2. 7 2. 9 3. 6 1 5 0. 5 3. 2 3. 6 4. 3 0. 6 2. 8 1. 6 1. 1 3. 3 1.8 -1. 5 -0. 5 3.6 -2. 2 -1. 7 0. 7 1 .6 1. 8 0. 1 -3. 0 -1. 5 -0. 4 3. 2 0. 6 0. 0 1. 5 2. 2 3. 3 1. 4 . 3.1 5.0 6.5 4.7 4.2 4.2 3.8 3.8 3.6 4.0 4.1 4.3 6.1 6.5 7.4 7.1 6.9 6.2 7.3 8.8 10.8 8.6 8.5 8.1 9.0 9.8 10.6 8.3 5.8 3 3 4.0 4.7 4.4 4.1 5.2 PERCENT CHANGE 2.6 4.1 4.7 2.5 1.1 3.4 2.7 2.3 3.0 2.1 3.3 1.7 2.9 2.6 3.5 1.3 1.3 2.0 3.1 1.9 -1.1 0.7 2.6 1.4 0.9 • -1.7 -2.7 -0.8 1.2 0.7 -0.4 0.5 3.1 0.1 0.5 Year 1954 1955 1 9 5 6 . . 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961.. .. 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 . . 1967 1968 1969.... 197 0. 1971 1972 1973. ... 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 II Q III Q IV Q Annual 3.4 3.4 75 6.6 2.2 4.6 8.4 4.2 6.9 4.0 5.7 1.4 6.4 5.9 12.5 5.6 6.5 8.0 10.0 11.5 9.4 1.4 .0 .7 1 5 1 3 1 .1 1 .0 1.1 .9 2 3 .2 5 .4 1.6 4.3 75 4.4 3.9 3.6 3.0 4.4 2.6 1.3 3.5 3.3 7.5 5.8 7.0 65 66 6.3 5,7 6 6 12.0 7.7 9.0 8.0 6.8 9 0 12.5 6,8 5.5 2.0 3.1 32 4.0 26 5,6 3.2 5.3 6.5 5.1 5.2 2.9 2.2 2 4 2.2 4.2 6.2 4.7 6.2 5.5 6.3 7.4 8.6 6.8 5.9 8.6 11.8 7.1 9.1 7.7 8.4 8 3 10.2 9.1 6.9 .0 .3 9 .7 .7 5.2 PERCENT CHANGE2 3.6 4.5 63 4.9 4.0 4.0 3.2 3.8 4.6 5.4 2.5 5.0 5.0 5.6 8.5 8.2 4.3 2.5 8.0 8.1 10.9 8.3 7.7 8.0 9.8 9 9 10.0 6.3 4.5 4.7 3.5 57 5.1 7.0 5.9 3.3 3.8 6.3 5.9 4.0 4.1 4.4 3.4 4.1 3.4 4.6 3.4 5 8 5.7 7.9 6.8 71 6.5 6.4 8.3 9.8 9.9 8.5 8.0 8.6 9 5 10.4 9.5 7.4 3.9 39 40 5.1 3.7 4.7 3 4 6 . I N D E X O F REAL A V E R A G E H O U R L Y C O M P E N S A T I O N , A L L EMPLOYEES, NONFARM B U S I N E S S S TOR ( 1 9 7 7 100) 1954 1955 . . . 1956 1957 1958 .. . 1959 I960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966..... 1967 . 1968 1969.o... 1970 1971 1972..... 1973 1974 1975 1976 . . . 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983.. .. 1984 1985 1986 1987..,.. 1988 58 6 60 7 63.8 65.9 66.3 8.6 0.9 2.0 4.5 6.0 8.0 9.7 81.6 84 2 87.1 88.7 89.5 91.3 93.8 97 0 95 5 95.8 97 4 99.6 101 5 100.9 96.8 96.5 96.9 98 4 97.3 97 5 99.3 100.8 101 0 58 9 61.4 64.6 66.0 66 5 69.1 71.0 72.8 74.7 76,1 78.6 79.9 82 3 84 9 87.7 88.7 89 7 91.8 94.5 96 6 95 7 96.5 98 6 99.8 100 9 99.9 96.4 96.1 96.8 97 7 97.1 97 2 100.7 100.3 101 3 59 6 62.2 64.9 66.3 67.4 69.3 71.3 73.0 74.9 76.4 79.6 80.5 82.9 85 2 87.9 89.1 90.6 92 4 95,1 96.7 9 ^ 7 96.2 99.2 100.3 100 6 98.7 96.9 95.5 96.7 97.3 97.3 97.8 101.2 100.5 101 4 AVERAGE 60 3 62.7 65.4 66.7 68.0 69.5 71.4 73.5 75.5 77.2 79.7 81.1 83.2 85 4 88.6 89.5 90.3 92 3 95.9 96.2 95 3 96.4 99.6 100.7 100 7 98.0 96.6 95.4 97.5 97.4 97.3 98 2 101.8 101.3 101 7 59 3 61 7 64.6 66.2 67 0 69.2 71.1 72.7 74.9 76.5 79.0 80 4 82 7 84 8 87.8 88.9 90 1 91 9 94.7 96 6 95 5 96.1 98 6 100.0 100 9 99.2 96.5 95.8 96.9 97.6 97.2 97.6 100.7 100.8 101 3 346C. C H A N G E I N I N D E X O F REAL A V E R A G E H O U R L Y C O M P E N S A T I O N 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 I960 1961 1962 1963 1964...., 1965..... 1966 1967 1968. ... 1969 1970..... 1971..... 1972 1973 1974..... 1975.... 1976 1977 1978 1979 . 1980 1981 1982..... 1983 1984..... 1985 1986..... 1987 1988 U n l e s s o t h e r w i s e n o t e d , these series c o n t a i n r e v i s i o n s beg n n i n g w i t h 1947. Uhi > s e r i e s c o n t a i n s r e v i s i o n s b e a i n n i n a w i t h 1948. ^Year-to-year changes are computed from annual data. 3 Changes are centered on the 3d quarter of the span. Annual figures are averages of the centered changes. 102 1 Q 345C. C H A N G E I N I N D E X O F A V E R A G E HOURLY C O M P E N S A T I O N OVER 1-QUARTER S P A N S 1 ( A N N U A L R A T E , P E R C E N T ) 2.8 4.4 4.4 2.1 1.7 2 8 3.0 2.3 2.6 2.1 4.1 1.2 2.9 2.8 3.2 14 1.7 2.0 2 8 1.7 -1.0 0.5 31 l.l 04 -1.9 -1.8 -1.5 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.6 3.5 -0.7 0.9 3.5 4.0 4.3 2.1 1.9 2 3 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.3 3.2 1.8 2.6 2 6 3 7 10 09 2.3 3 9 0.3 -0.9 1 1 33 1.2 00 -2.7 -1.4 -1.2 2.2 -0.1 -0.1 1.0 3.6 -0.4 0.4 3.6 5.2 3.2 0,7 3.5 3 3 1.6 3.4 2.1 2.6 2.2 2.4 3.2 3.4 19 09 20 2,8 3 5 -1.6 0.4 1.6 23 1.9 -06 -4.1 -0.3 0.5 1.5 -1.1 0.2 1.8 1.6 0.2 0.6 4.2 5.1 2.3 0.7 4.0 2 7 2.6 2.5 2.0 3.2 1.7 3 1 3.1 3 4 11 11 24 2.9 2 2 -0.9 0.8 2 2 12 1.1 10 -3.5 -0.3 0.8 "l.O -0.7 0.1 3.5 -0.4 1.0 0.2 . 3.5 4.7 3.6 1.4 2.8 2 8 2.5 2.8 2.4 2.6 2.8 2 1 3.0 3 0 25 11 18 2,5 3 1 -0.1 -0.2 14 25 1.3 03 -3.0 -0.9 -0.3 1.5 -0.3 0.0 1.7 2.1 0.0 0.5 (DECEMBER 1989) C. for Year 370. I Q II Q III Q INDEX OF OUTPUT PER HOUR, ALL P E R S O N S , SECTOR1 (1977=100) 1954. 1955..... 1956 ..... 1957 1958.,... 1959 I960. .. . 1962 1963. 1964. .. . 1965 1966. .... 1967 1968 1969 1970 197 1 ..... 1972. .... 1973..... 1974. .... 1975 1976 ..... 1977 ..... 1978 1979 1980 ..... 1981 ..... 1982. .... 1983. .... 1984. .... 1985 1986 1987 ..... 1988 56.0 58.5 59.2 60.9 61.8 65.0 66 .7 66 .7 70.0 72.6 76.5 78.3 81,4 82.4 85.7 86.3 86 .4 90.3 91.4 96.3 94.1 93.5 97.9 99.4 100.3 100.8 99.7 101.3 100.0 101.6 104.8 106.3 110.3 110.0 113.2 56.5 58.9 59.2 61.1 62.3 65.2 66.1 68.5 70.4 73.5 76.6 78.7 81.4 84.0 86.6 86.7 87.0 90.0 92.9 95.2 93.8 95.5 98.2 99.6 101.4 100.2 99.0 101.2 100.3 103.1 105.4 107.1 110,1 110,7 112.6 57 .4 58.8 59.4 61.1 63.3 64.6 5.7 8.8 1.4 4.4 7.5 9.8 81.8 84.7 87.0 86.9 88.8 91,0 93.3 94.7 93.2 96.6 98.5 101.3 101.2 99.5 99,5 101.6 100.2 102,6 105.3 108.0 109.6 111.7 113.4 IV Q 58.0 58.7 60.4 61.5 64.4 65.4 66.0 70.0 72.1 74.8 77.8 80.7 82.0 85,2 86.9 87.1 88.5 90.6 95.3 95.3 93.0 96.6 98.6 100.5 101,4 99.0 100.1 100.1 100.9 103.5 105.7 108.3 109.8 112,5 113.5 1.7 2.4 1.0 2.9 3.5 2,1 1.8 4.7 3.7 4.2 4.1 3.0 2 .4 3.6 2.7 -0.2 2 ,2 2.5 2.6 1.5 -1.6 3.7 2.0 2.8 -0 1 -1.6 0.0 2. 1 -1.4 2.4 2.6 2.5 1.5 1.9 1.5 57,1 47 ,6 85,7 57.1 38.1 85.7 81,0 52,4 57,1 57,1 57 ,1 52,4 52.4 47,6 66.7 90.5 57.1 38.1 76.2 81.0 76 .2 19.0 66.7 66 .7 81,0 50,0 66.7 57.1 47.6 47,6 88,1 61,9 52.4 54.8 95.2 4.4 1.1 2.8 1.5 5.2 2.7 -0.1 5.0 3.7 5.4 2,4 3.9 1.2 4.0 0.7 0.1 4.5 1.2 5.4 -23 -06 4.7 1.6 0.8 0 5 4.3 0.5 3.1 2.0 4.6 1.4 3.7 2.7 4.5 4.2 2.7 3.4 3.2 3.1 0.2 0.3 3.4 3.3 2.5 15 19 2.8 1.4 1.8 - 1 2 3.2 1.3 2.4 2.0 4.5 1,9 1.6 4.6 3,8 4.4 3.3 3.5 2.1 3.7 1.4 0.1 2.9 2.3 3.9 -06 -07 3,8 1.8 1.8 0 0 1.1 0.1 0.7 2,6 2.1 2.5 1.4 2.4 0.9 1.7 -1.3 1.6 3,1 1.4 3.7 -0.3 2.9 0.5 2.2 -0.9 2.8 2.2 1.7 2.7 0.6 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.0 0,9 2.6 2.0 2.8 0.8 2.2 1.1 42.9 85.7 90.5 76.2 19.0 85.7 66,7 76 .2 81.0 66.7 66.7 81.0 66.7 42.9 57,1 90,5 52.4 76.2 78.6 85 . 7 85.7 23.8 76.2 71.4 76.2 52,4 38,1 47.6 38.1 61,9 61.9 76.2 64.3 90,5 76.2 38.1 81 .0 76.2 47.6 66.7 90.5 42.9 59.5 61.9 71.4 42.9 47.6 57.1 47.6 57.1 66.7 52.4 61,9 81.0 73.8 59.5 47.6 69.0 71.4 76.2 81.0 33,3 52.4 33.3 90.5 71.4 69.0 38.1 85.7 66.7 54.8 81.0 61.9 38.1 64.3 61.9 52,4 76 ,2 50.0 59.5 66.7 76.2 54.8 52.4 71.4 38,1 45.2 71.4 90.5 76.2 47,6 59.5 66.7 71.4 76,2 54.8 38.1 52.4 5 2 . 4 85.7 71.4 42.9 81.0 81.0 42.9 1954 1955 ..... 1956 . 1957 1958 1959... 1960 1961,... 1962. 1 9 6 3 . 1964.. 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971...,, 1972 . 1973..... 1974 1975 1976 1977..... 1 9 7 8 . . 1979 1980 1981 ..... 1982.,... 1983.,. 1984 1985 . 1986 1987..... 1988 . iivcR^ur, 48.2 73.8 78.6 54.8 47.0 81.0 60,8 66 , 1 62.5 63.7 58.4 64,3 57 .8 47.6 63.1 71.4 51,8 61.9 81.6 79.2 67.2 37.5 69.6 70.2 77.4 59.6 44.0 52.4 42,8 71.4 73.2 62.5 59.0 78.0 70.2 II Q -4.8 3.4 2.9 27 16 35 8.6 42 0.1 25 92 2.9 36 22 22 -28 -3.3 8.3 36 4.5 -4.9 2.1 5.4 3.3 -07 -21 2.8 5.2 -04 32 5 2 2 5 73 05 2 5 3.5 3.1 0.5 14 36 10 -3.9 11.2 1.9 53 06 1.8 -01 79 43 20 3.1 -1.3 69 -4.6 -1.5 8.8 1.4 0.5 4.4 -26 -2,6 -0.7 09 59 2 1 3 1 -08 26 -21 9 7 0 A . D I F F U S I O N I N D E X OF E X P E N D . EQUIP. —ACTUAL (PERCENT RISING AVERAGE 2.3 1.3 2.9 1.8 4.7 1.4 1.0 6.1 3.1 3.7 4.0 3.7 1.6 4.0 2.0 0.2 1.6 2.3 5.2 00 -24 3.9 2.1 1.9 09 970B. DIFFUSION I N D E X OF EXPEND. FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIP. LA i^ o r a w a / ° 1954. .... 1955 ..... 1956 1957 . ... 1958 1 9 5 9 ..... I960...., 1961..... 1962..... 1963 . . . 1964. .... 1965 ..... 1966 ..... 1967 . 1968 1969 . 1 9 7 0 . .... 197 i 1972. , , , . 1973 1974. .... 1975 1976..... 1977 1978...., 1979..... 1980 1981..... 1982. .... 1983 1984...,, 1985..,,. 1986.,.. . 1987, .... 1988..... 57.0 58.7 59.5 61.1 62.9 65.0 66.1 68.4 70.9 73.8 77.0 79.4 81.-6 84.1 86.6 86.8 87.6 90.4 93.1 95.2 93.4 95.4 98.2 100.0 100.9 99.7 99.4 101.0 00.2 02.6 05.2 07.3 09.8 111.1 113.0 1 Q III Q IV Q 3 7 0 C . C H A N G E I N O U T P U T P E R H O U R O V E R 1-Q U A R T E R S P A N S 1 ( A N N U A L RATE, P E R C E N T ) AVERAGE 3 7 0 C , C H A N G E IN OUTPUT PER HOUR OVER 4 - Q U A R T E R S P A N S 3 ( A N N U A L RATE, PERCENT) 954 . 955..... 956 957 ..... 958 959 ..... 9 6 0 . .... 96 1 962 963,... . 964 965. .... 966 967 9 6 8 . .... 969 97 0. ... 971 972 973 974 975 ..... 976..... 977 ..... 978 9 7 9 . .... 9 80 981 ..... 982 983.. . . . 984 . . 985 986 ..... 9 87 1988 Year Annual BUSINESS 1954. .... 1955 1956 1957 1958, 1959..... I960..... 1961 1962 1963..... 1964..... 1965. 1966 ..... 1967 196 8 . . . . . 1969 1970 1971. .... 1972 1973 1 9 7 4 . .... 1975 1976 ..... 1977 1978..... 1979 1980 1981 1982 ..... 1983 1984 1985 .... 1986 .... 1987 1988. .... Q 40.5 548 905 524 143 81.0 78.6 19.0 52.4 33.3 95.2 61.9 88.1 52.4 61.9 714 57.1 35.7 714 85. 7 66.7 35.7 71.4 66.7 81.0 762 76 .2 76.2 42.9 38.1 97 .6 762 21.4 40.5 88.1 33.3 762 905 54.8 48 78.6 71.4 54.8 71.4 83.3 69.0 85.7 90.5 40.5 38.1 905 42.9 52.4 690 81.0 78.6 28.6 76.2 83.3 95.2 762 54.8 64.3 23.8 47 .6 73.8 786 59.5 69.0 85 .7 6. 5 -0 9 1 .0 0 2 6 3 -3 4 -2. 0 2 1 6. 0 4 9 4 6 5. 8 1 9 3 5 2 0 0 7 8. 2 4. 5 1 7 -2. 0 -2. 5 4. 6 1. 2 7. 2 -0 7 2 5 2. 1 1 .9 -0 2 -1 8 -0.3 3 1 1 6 3 .8 3 1 4.3 -0.4 .4 .8 .6 .8 .7 .9 .3 .3 .6 .4 .0 .3 4 ,9 - .2 - .8 8.7 2.5 -0.6 0.1 0.5 -3.3 0.7 -2.2 2.2 -5.8 2 6 3.3 1.5 1.5 0.8 2.8 0.2 FOR NEW PLANT A N D OVER 1- Q S P A N S ) 35 . 7 88 1 71 4 52 4 31 0 85. 7 38. 1 40. 5 6 6 .7 76. 2 81. 0 83. 3 71. 4 35. 7 61. 9 64 3 47 .6 45 . 2 66 7 76 2 66 7 38. 1 81, 0 90. 5 78. 6 76 2 57 . 1 71. 4 14. 3 85 .7 90. 5 61 9 31 0 81. 0 71.4 45.2 90.5 54.8 23.8 57.1 71.4 33.3 73.8 42.9 66.7 81.0 85.7 71.4 61.9 69.0 54.8 28.6 61.9 90.5 66.7 71.4 54.8 71.4 57.1 92.9 71.4 61,9 35.7 28.6 95.2 59.5 45.2 71.4 71.4 64.3 970C. DIFFUSION INDEX OF EXPEND. FOR NEW PLANT AND -Q SPANS) • 1954 1955 1956 ..... 1957 1958 1959..... 1 6 0 . .... 161 1 6 2 . . . 1 63. .... 164 165 1 66 ..... 1967 1968 1969. 1 9 7 0 . .... 197 1 1972 1973 1974. 1975..... 1976 1977 1978 1979..... 1980 1981..... 1982 1983 1984.. ... 1985..... 1986 1987 1988 NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain revisions beginning with 1986. ] This series contains revisions beginning with 1947. Year-to-year percent changes are computed from annual data. 3 This series contains revisions beginning with 1948. Changes are centered on the 3d quarter of the span, are averages of the centered changes. 33.3 52.4 57.1 57.1 52.4 57.1 69.0 57,1 524 47 ,6 66,7 66.7 52.4 52.4 66.7 66.7 64.3 50.0 76.2 71.4 71.4 61.9 66.7 61.9 71.4 52.4 76.2 61.9 47.6 47.6 61.9 66.7 71.4 59.5 71.4 42.9 71.4 85 .7 85.7 28.6 61.9 90.5 52.4 61.9 61.9 85 .7 71.4 81.0 52.4 52.4 66.7 76,2 73.8 52.4 71.4 76.2 38.1 61.9 66.7 76.2 57,1 66.7 76.2 61.9 50.0 69.0 76.2 57.1 85.7 66.7 38. 1 81. 0 81 0. 47. 6 31 . 0 66. 7 42.9 52.4 61 9 61. 9 4 7 6. 5 7 .1 810. 71. 4 61. 9 61. 9 6 6 .7 66. 7 33. 3 61. 9 81. 0 57. 1 69. 0 57. 1 81. 0 66. 7 81. 0 85. 7 66. 7 85. 7 92. 9 71. 4 47 . 6 61. 9 54. 8 47.6 81.0 61.9 52.4 66.7 61.9 61.9 54.8 59.5 66.7 76.2 71.4 57.1 47.6 52.4 52.4 66.7 33.3 38.1 61.9 61.9 52.4 66.7 76.2 76.2 7 1.4 66.7 71.4 66.7 76.2 38.1 33.3 47.6 52.4 52.4 Annual PERCENT CHANGE2 1.5 3.1 1.4 2.7 2.9 3.3 1.7 3.5 3,6 4.0 4.4 3.0 2.9 3.0 3 0 0,3 0.9 3.2 3.0 2.3 -1.9 2.1 3.0 1.8 0.9 -1.1 -0.3 1.5 -0.7 2.4 2.6 2.0 2.3 1.2 1.7 AVERAGE 38.7 77.4 76.8 45.8 26.8 79.2 55.4 47.0 58.4 64.9 81.6 79.2 80.4 47 ,6 57,7 70.2 44.0 48,8 74.4 77.4 70.8 39.3 75.0 74.4 86.9 75.0 62.5 61.9 27.4 66.6 80,4 65.5 45.8 65.5 77.4 AVERAGE 40.5 71.4 71.4 60.7 44.7 61.9 66.1 54.2 58.9 59.5 69.0 ,66.6 67,9 56.0 58.4 61.9 68.5 56.0 50.0 66.6 72,6 52.4 66.1 65.5 76.2 61.9 72.6 73.8 60.7 64.9 65.5 61.9 55.9 64,9 61.3 (DECEMBER 1989) 2 Annual figures 103 F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Cyclical Indicators Specific peak dates corresponding to contractions beginning in— Series July 1981 LEADING INDICATORS 1 Average weekly hours, mfg 5 Average weekly initial claims (inverted) 8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods 32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries ; 20. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, 1982 dollars 29 Building permits new private housing units 92. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods (smoothed1) 99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed1) 19 Index of stock prices 500 common stocks 106 Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars . . . . 83. Index of consumer expectations 910 Composite index of 11 leading indicators 940 Ratio coincident index to lagging index COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41 Employees on nonagriculturai payrolls 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars 47. Index of industrial production 57 Mfg and trade sales in 1982 dollars 920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident indicators LAGGING INDICATORS 91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted) 77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars 62. Change in index of labor cost per unit of output, mfg (smoothed1) 109 Average prime rate charged by banks , 101 Commercial and industrial loans in 1982 dollars 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income 120. Change in consumer price index for services (smoothed1) 930 Composite index of 7 lagging indicators Jan. 1980 LAGGING INDICATORS 91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted) '. 77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars 62. Change in index of labor cost per unit of output, mfg. (smoothed1) 109 Average prime rate charged by banks 101. Commercial and industrial loans in 1982 dollars 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income 120. Change in consumer price index for services (smoothed1) 930. Composite index of 7 lagging indicators Apr. I960 Aug. 1957 July 1953 (-2) (0) (-9) (-3) (-3) (-10) 3/79 (-10) 9/78 (-16) 12/78 (-13) 4/79 (-9) 3/79 (-10) 6/78 (-19) 4/73 2/73 3/73 11/73 10/73 12/72 (-7) (-9) (-8) (0) (-1) (-11) 10/68 1/69 11/68 8/69 4/69 2/69 (-14) (-11) (-13) (-4) (-8) (-10) 5/59 4/59 2/59 2/59 3/59 11/58 (-11) (-12) (-14) (-14) (-13) (-17) 11/55 (-21) 9/55 (-23) 7/55 (-25) 4/55 (-28) 11/56 (-9) 2/55 (-30) 4/53 9/52 4/53 7/52 2/53 11/52 12/80 12/80 11/80 NSC 5/81 5/81 10/80 (-7) (-7) (-8) 12/78 (-13) 5/79 (-8) NSC 1/78 (-24) 11/76 (-38) 10/78 (-15) 4/78 (-21) 5/73 1/74 1/73 1/73 8/72 3/73 12/72 (-6) ( + 2) (-10) (-10) (-15) (-8) (-11) '5/69 (-7) 2/69 (-10) 12/68 (-12) 1/69 (-11) 2/69 (-10) 4/69 (-8) 11/68 (-13) 4/59 11/58 7/59 NSC 2/60 6/59 4/59 (-12) (-17) (-9) l/.56(-19) 8/55 (-24) 7/56 (-13) 1/56 (-19) 11/56 (-9) 12/55 (-20) 5/55 (-27) 5/51 (-26) 6/53 (-1) 1/53 (-6) NSC 2/53 (-5) 2/53 (-5) 10/52 (-9) 7/81 8/81 7/81 1/81 7/81 (0) ( + 1) (0) (-6) (0) 3/80 1/80 3/80 3/79 1/80 ( + 2) (0) ( + 2) (-10) (0) 10/74 ( + 11) 11/73 (0) 11/73 (0) 11/73 (0) 11/73 (0) 3/70 ( + 3) NSC 10/69 (-2) 10/69 (-2) 10/69 (-2) 4/60 6/60 1/60 1/60 1/60 (0) ( + 2) (-3) (-3) (-3) 3/57 8/57 2/57 2/57 2/57 (-5) (0) (-6) (-6) (-6) 6/53 10/53 7/53 4/53 7/53 (-1) ( + 3) (0) (-3) (0) 12/81 ( + 5) -10/82 ( + 15) 7/79 6/80 (-6) ( + 5) 9/73 (-2) 3/75 ( + 16) 10/69 (-2) 11/70 ( + 11) 6/60 ( + 2) 1/61 ( + 9) 9/57 4/58 ( + 1) (+8) 9/53 12/53 ( + 2) ( + 5) ( + 6) ( + 1) ( + 14) 6/80 4/80 3/80 2/80 6/80 4/80 ( + 5) ( + 3) ( + 2) ( + 1) ( + 5) ( + 3) ( + 10) ( + 3) 3/58 12/57 9/57 1/58 3/57 12/57 ( + 7) ( + 4) ( + 1) (+5) (-5) (+4) 1/54 2/54 6/53 4/54 NA 12/53 ( + 6) ( + 7) (-1) ( + 9) 1/82 8/81 9/82 NSC 9/81 9/81 (-2) (-2) (-9) ( + 2) ( + 2) 3/75 9/74 9/74 4/74 10/74 12/74 ( + 16) ( + 10) ( + 10) ( + 5) ( + 11) ( + 13) 1/70 2/70 8/70 NSC 4/70 3/70 ( + 1) ( + 2) ( + 8) ( + 4) ( + 3) 2/61 7/60 NSC 12/60 10/59 7/60 (-2) (-10) (-12) ( + 8) (-6) ( + 3) (-3) (-10) (-3) (-12) (-5) (-8) ( + 5) Specific trough dates corresponding to expansions beginning in— Nov. 1982 COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Employees on nonagriculturai payrolls 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars. 47. Index of industrial production 57. Mfg. and trade sales in 1982 dollars 920 Composite index of 4 roughly coincident indicators Dec. 1969 5/81 7/81 10/80 4/81 4/81 9/80 Series LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average weekly hours, mfg 5 Average weekly initial claims (inverted) 8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods 32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries \ 20. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, 1982 dollars 29. Building permits, new private housing units 92. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods (smoothed1) 99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed1) 19 Index of stock prices 500 common stocks 106 Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars 83 Index of consumer expectations 910 Composite index of 11 leading indicators 940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index Nov. 1973 July 1980 Mar. 1975 Nov. 1970 Feb. 1961 Apr. 1958 May 1954 9/82 9/82 10/82 3/82 8/82 10/81 (-2) (-2) (-1) (-8) (-3) (-13) 7/80 5/80 6/80 5/80 5/80 4/80 (0) (-2) (-1) (-2) (-2) (-3) 3/75 3/75 3/75 2/75 12/75 3/75 (0) (0) (0) (-1) ( + 9) (0) 9/70 10/70 11/70 12/70 10/70 1/70 (-2) (-1) (0) ( + 1) (-1) (-10) 12/60 (-2) 2/61 (0) 1/61 (-1) 3/60 (-11) 3/61 ( + 1) 12/60 (-2) 4/58 4/58 4/58 12/57 3/58 2/58 (0) (0) (0) (-4) (-1) (-2) 4/54 9/54 10/53 11/53 3/54 9/53 (-1) (+4) (-7) (-6) (-2) (-8) 9/82 4/82 7/82 NSC 3/82 1/82 1/82 (-2) (-7) (-4) (-1) (0) (-2) (-4) (-2) (-2) 4/75 1/75 12/74 1/75 2/75 2/75 3/75 ( + 1) (-2) (-3) (-2) (-1) (-1) (0) 8/70 9/70 6/70 4/70 5/70 10/70 11/70 (-3) (-2) (-5) (-7) (-6) (-1) (0) 5/60 (-9) 1/61 (-1) 10/60 (-4) NSC 11/60 (-3) 4/60 (-10) 2/61 (0) 2/58 1/58 12/57 1/58 5/58 2/58 3/58 (-2) (-3) (-4) (-3) ( + 1) (-2) (-1) 12/53 1/54 9/53 NSC 11/53 11/53 12/53 (-5) (-4) (-8) (-8) (-10) (-10) 6/80 7/80 NSC 5/80 3/80 5/80 5/80 12/82 9/82 12/82 10/82 12/82 ( + 1) (-2) ( + 1) (-1) ( + 1) 7/80 7/80 7/80 6/80 7/80 (0) (0) (0) (-1) (0) 4/75 2/75 3/75 3/75 3/75 ( + 1) (-1) (0) (0) (0) 11/70 NSC 11/70 11/70 11/70 (0) 5/58 4/58 4/58 4/58 4/58 ( + 1) (0) (0) (0) (0) 8/54 ( + 3) 4/54 (-1) 4/54 (-1) 12/53 (-5) 8/54 ( + 3) 10/58 ( + 6) 5/59 ( + 13) 5/55 ( + 12) 4/55 ( + 11) 7/83 ( + 8) 1/84 ( + 14) 8/83 ( + 9) 7/83 ( + 8) 10/83 ( + 11) 12/82 ( + 1) 1/83 ( + 2) 6/83 ( + 7) 1/81 ( + 6) 1/81 ( + 6) 7/81 8/80 3/81 NSC 10/80 10/80 ( + 12) ( + 1) (+8) ( + 3) ( + 3) 1/76 ( + 10) 11/78 (+44) 11/75 4/77 9/76 2/76 8/75 6/76 ( + 8) ( + 25) ( + 18) ( + 11) ( + 5) ( + 15) (0) (0) (0) 6/72 ( + 19) 2/73 ( + 27) 11/71 3/72 2/72 NSC 2/73 2/72 ( + 12) ( + 16) ( + 15) ( + 27) ( + 15) 2/61 12/60 2/61 1/61 2/61 (0) (-2) (0) (-1) (0) 7/61 ( + 5) 4/62 ( + 14) 9/61 11/65 NSC 11/61 7/61 8/61 ( + 7) ( + 57) ( + 9) ( + 5) ( + 6) 11/58 8/58 8/58 11/58 12/58 8/58 ( + 7) (+4) ( + 4) ( + 7) ( + 8) (+4) 4/55 7/55 8/54 11/54 NA 2/55 (-6) (-6) (-5) ( + 11) ( + 14) ( + 3) ( + 6) ( + 9) NOTE: Specific peak and trough dates mark the cyclical turning points in individual series; reference peak and trough dates mark the cyclical turning points in overall business activity. For the major composite indexes and their components, this table lists the specific peaks and troughs corresponding to the last seven business cycles. The leads ( — ) or lags ( + ) of the specific dates in relation to the reference dates are shown in parentheses (in months). These specific dates should not be considered absolute; individual analysts may prefer alternative turning points for some series. See MEASURING BUSINESS CYCLES by Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell (National Bureau of Economic Research, 1946) for detailed information on the selection of specific peaks and troughs. NA, not available. This indicates that data necessary to determine a turning point are not available. NSC, no specific cycle. This indicates that no specific turning point corresponding to the indicated reference date is discernible. 1 This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada. 104 and 0 Year and month III Foreign currency per U . S . d o l l a r Japan (Yen) West Germany (D. mark) United Kingdom (Pound) France (Franc) TT[TT!TTTTI TTT TTTTTTT IH HI i i s Foreign currency per u.5. aoiiar— \a """•V V \ 1988 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. June July Aug. Sept Oct. Nov. Dec. 1989 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. June July Aug. Sept Oct. Nov. Dec. 127.69 129=17 127.11 124.90 124.79 127.47 133.02 133.77 134,32 128.68 123.20 123.61 1.6537 1.6965 1.6770 1.6710 1.6935 1.7579 1.8466 1.8880 1.8668 1.8165 1.7491 1.7563 5.5808 5.7323 5.6893 5.6704 5.7348 5.9310 6.2241 6.3919 6,3515 r6,1976 r5.9747 5.9994 0.5553 0.5688 0.5456 0.5324 0.5349 0,5628 0.5865 0.5894 0.5938 0.5751 0.5529 0.5477 127.36 127.74 130.55 132.04 137.86 143.98 140.42 141.49 145.07 142.21 143.53 2 143.89 1.8356 1.8505 1.8686 1.8697 1.9461 1.9789 1.8901 1.9268 1.9502 1.8662 1.8300 2 1.7493 6.2538 6.3004 6.3321 6.3223 6.5815 6.7135 6.4105 6.5085 6.5855 6.3339 6.2225 2 5.9784 0.5638 0.5703 0.5836 0.5880 0.6132 0.6439 0.6147 0.6271 0.6363 0.6300 0.6359 2 0.6286 Foreign currency per U . S . d o l l a r Year and month 1988 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. June July Aug. Sept Oct. Nov. Dec. 1989 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. June July Aug. Sept Oct. Nov. Dec. Italy Canada Exchange v a l u e of the U .1S . dollar (Lira) (Dollar) (March 1973=100) 1216.88 . 1249.62 1240.67 1240.99 1258.81 1305.56 1367,26 1397.93 1393.15 1353.36 1300.22 1295.61 1345.12 1355.28 1372.50 1371.80 1415.83 1434.40 1367.39 1384.24 1404.18 1369.24 1343.83 2 1297.88 1.2855 1.2682 1.2492 L2353 1.2373 1.2176 1.2075 1.2237 1.2267 1.2055 1.2186 1.1962 1.1913 1.1891 1.1954 1 . 1888 1.1925 1.1986 1.1891 1.1758 1.1828 1.1749 1.1697 2 1.1621 89.29 91.09 89.73 88.95 89.74 92.58 96.53 98.29 97.91 95,10 91.91 91,88 95.12 95.77 96.99 97.24 100.81 103.09 99.12 100.44 101.87 98.92 97.99 2 95.31 Jap an \y \ / \^ /^ ^A, v^ III III Ratio scale ^v V \ -^ A V -\ ^ V >»& X k/ f^ fj A A/ F ranee (fra nC ) A /*/ / A/ J^ """V^ / \ •'sA/ / A J / ^ Ital y (lin 1 ^\Jsf -•v«*#^ sA/ / I *>***^J /\ \/ V y A J . \ a J1 A ptxF VH n J^ A m \y \ v\ \ \f/ ^A /\ \ \ / w\ yv ^\ \ H Canada (dollar) f^ s~ r^ jr*** a**"*^ f*?^*>* /w^ v-~ ^^ ^ /\ K v X* r \ *s\^ /\J f •% ^#' °W\ a l i l Ul V ^*R^ m A f /x ""-Vv w^ — N^ ixchange value of the U.S. dollar (index: March 1973 = 100) , r*^ \ ^\ m i*/*** J Uni tedKi ngdor ri (po und) j^&^ / _^s **«/VV Ar ' f^ ^ ^A Wes tGer many (d. nnark) W"=v I I I i l l HI V\ A \ J^ j/^\ s saa HI Hi \\ I I II I I I II III III _ _ 77 78 71 10 fl.82.. 13 14 IS 98 87 88. .. . This index is the weighted-average exchange value of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of the other G-1Q countries plus Switzerland. Weights are the 1972-76 global trade of each of the 10 countries. For a description of this index, see the August 1978 FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN (p. 700). 2 Average for December 1 through 22. Hi H Hi Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 105 G* Supplemental Data and Analyses—Continued Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes Net contribution to index Basic data Series title (and unit of measure) LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours). . . 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs 1 (thous.). . . . 8. M f r s . ' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (bil. d o l . ) . • • 32. Vendor performance—slower deliveries diffusion index (percent) 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 198? dollars (bil. dol.) . . 29. New private housing units authorized by local building permits (index: 1967=100). . . . 92. Change in m f r s . 1 unfilled orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods, smoothed 2 ( b i l . d o l . ) . . 99. Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed 2 (percent) 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks 3 (index- 1941-43=10) 106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (bil dol .) . . . . . . . . . . . . 83. Index of consumer expectations 3 (index: 1st Q 1966=100) . . . . 910. Composite index of leading indicators'* (index: 1982=100) . . . . . . ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (thous.) 51. Personal income less transfer payments 1982 dollars (ann. rate, bil. d o l . ) . 47. Industrial production (index: 1977=100) . . 57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars (mil. d o l . ) 920. Composite index of roughly coincident"* indicators (index: 1982=100) . . . . Sept. 1989 Aug. 1989 41.0 r 41 . 0 Oct. 1989 Aug. to Sept. 1989 Nov. 1989 Sept. to Oct. 1989 40.8 p40. 7 .00 -.15 Oct. to Nov. 1989 -.07 316 320 357 343 -.03 -.30 . 11 90.68 r87.85 r87.58 p89.54 -. 17 -.02 .12 44. 9 43.8 42.7 42.5 -.05 -.05 -.01 46.81 r46.61 r45.94 p47.80 -.01 -.03 .09 105.9 105.2 108. 1 107.0 -.02 .08 -.03 p 1 .1 2 -.15 .-.06 .06 -.66 -.03 .02 -.17 1.57 r 1 .1 1 .93 r-.45 r-.48 346.61 347.33 347.40 340.22 .01 .00 -.11 2,431.4 r2,442.6 r2,447.2 p2,453. 1 .15 .06 .08 87.2 84. 3 . 31 -.05 -.11 r!44. 5 p!44.7 . 14 -.34 . 15 80.3 144.8 88.6 r 1 4 5. 0 -.46 .14 108,887 rl09,096 r!09,189 pi 09, 3 9 9 in . . . . . r2,932. 1 r 2 ,9 30. 2 r2,937 . 4 p2,949. 7 -.03 .13 . . . . . r!42.5 r!41 . 3 p!41.5 -.08 -. 16 .05 NA . . . . . LAGGING INDICATORS 91. Average duration of unemployment 1 (weeks) 77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars (ratio). . . . . 62. Change in index of labor cost per unit of 2 output, m f g . s smoothed (ann. rate, percent). . 109. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent) . 101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982 dollars (mil. d o l . ) 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income (percent). . . . 120. Change in consumer price index for services, smoothed 2 (ann. rate, percent). 930. Composite index of lagging indicators 4 (index: 1982=100) . . . . . . . . . . r 1 4 2. 1 .07 .20 - .29 r 4 66, 30 7 r462,699 p457,690 NA -. 19 -.27 133.9 r!33.5 • r 132. 9 pi 3 3 . 4 -.30 -.45 .38 11.3 11.4 11.8 11.7 -.05 -.21 .07 1 .50 rl .51 NA . 13 .26 DA P5.1 .08 .58 -.07 10.50 10.50 .00 .00 .00 r 3 9 5 , 993 p397,122 -.17 -.09 .09 pi 5. 7 2 N'A -. 16 NA rl.4 10.50 E-400,630 15. 1 1 r1 . 9 10.50 r 397 , 5 8 3 r 1 5. 7 7 p 1. 5 3 r5 . 4 . 00 4.8 4. 4 4.2 4.6 -.19 -. 10 .27 r ! 2 0 .i r!19.9 r!20.3 p!20.8 -. 17 .33 .42 NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. It is computed by dividing the standardized change for the component by the number of components and dividing that result by the index standardization factor. See the January 1989 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 97-102) for the standardization factors. NA 9 not available, p, preliminary, r, revised. series is inverted in computing the composite index; i.e., a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement. 2 This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada. 3 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source: stock prices, Standard & Poor's Corporation; consumer expectations, University of Michigan's Survey Research Center. "•Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment factor for the leading index is 0.1,42; for the coincident index, -0.186; for the lagging index 9 0.030. 106 G. and Continued CIBCR Composite Indexes of Leading Indicators Ratio scale 240 220 200 ISO ISO CIBCR long-leading index (1967 = 100) 220 230 IBB 160 140 120 ioo CIBCR short-leading index (1967 80 -J so 48 49 50 Si 12 §3 54 55 §6 §7 58 ii 80 81 82 63 84 ii i® @7 ii 89 70 71 72 73 74 75 78 77 7S 79 SO 81 '-82 83 84 @S 9@ 87 S8 §9 CIBCR long-leading index (1967=100) CIBCR short-leading index (1967=100) Month January February. . . March ...... April May... June. ...... July. ...... August. .... September. . October November. . . December. . . 1985 1986 1987 1988 171.8 174.9 173.2 175.8 179.0 181.6 182.3 184.5 186.2 183.2 185.8 187.9 188.8: 188.3 186.6 192.4 193.3 193.7 195.2 195.5 197.4 197.2 199.4 204.6 203.2 205.0 204.8 205.5 204.1 205,1 207.5 206.7 205.0 205.1 206.1 206.0 206.3 210.5 210.8 212.8 213.9 214.3 216.0 217.3 217.1 215.6 218.0 219.7 1989 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 219.5 218.5 215.3 219.5 220.3 r221.8 r222.3 223.6 r224.9 223.2 p225.8 r!71.8 r!71.4 172.0 171.6 172.9 r!73.3 173.8 175.1 r!76.0 177.1 r!75.9 r!78.5 r!79.5 r!79.6 rlSO.l 181.4 r!82.0 r!82.7 r!82.6 184.2 r!85.3 r!85.8 r!86.9 r!89.9 r!89.4 r!91.1 r!91.7 r!91.4 r!94.2 r!96.7 r!96.6 r!98.0 r!96.9 T196.4 r!94.8 r!93.8 r!93.1 r!94.3 r!94.9 r!96.0 196.0 198.8 197.7 r!98.3 198.0 198.4 r!98.9 r201.5 201.7 201.8 r202.2 203.5 r202.1 r202.5 r201.7 203.8 r204.4 r204.4 p201.8 NOTE: These indexes are compiled by Columbia University's Center for International Business Cycle Research (CIBCR). The components of each index are listed below, and the source is indicated for each component not shown in BCD. Long-leading index: Building permits for new private housing units (BCD 29), bond prices (Dow-Jones & Company), ratio of price to unit labor cost in manufacturing (CIBCR), and deflated M2 money supply (BCD 106). Short-leading index: Average weekly hours in manufacturing (BCD 1), average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (BCD 5), layoff rate under 5 weeks (CIBCR), deflated new orders for consumer goods and materials (BCD 8), vendor performance (BCD 32), change in business population (CIBCR), deflated contracts and orders for plant and equipment (BCD 20), inventory change (National Association of Purchasing Management), change in industrial materials prices (Journal of Commerce), stock prices (BCD 19), and change in deflated total debt (CIBCR). Further information about these indexes and their non-BCD components may be obtained from the Center for International Business Cycle Research, Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027. 107 INDEX— Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Agricultural products, exports Anticipations and intentions Consumer expectations, index Consumer sentiment, index ... Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl New orders, manufacturing, Dl Plant and equipment expenditures, constant dollars.. Plant and equipment expenditures, current dollars.... Plant and equipment expenditures, Dl Prices, manufacturing, Dl Prices, retail trade, Dl Prices, wholesale trade, Dl Profits, manufacturing and trade, Dl Sales, manufacturing and trade, Dl Automobiles Imports of automobiles and parts ..... Personal consumption expenditures B Balance of payments—See International transactions. Bank loans—See Business Loans. Bank rates—See Interest rates. Bank reserves Free reserves Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve.. Bonds—See Interest rates. Borrowing—See Credit. Budget—See Government. Building—See Construction. Building permits, new private housing .... Business equipment, industrial production Business expenditures—See Investment, capital. Business failures, current liabilities Business formation, index Business incorporations Business loans Loans outstanding, constant dollars Loans outstanding, current dollars Loans outstanding, net change Business saving Canada—See International comparisons. Capacity utilization Manufacturing Materials 5 Capital appropriations, manufacturing Backlog Newly approved Newly approved, Dl Capital equipment, producer price index Capital investment—See Investment, capital. Capital investment commitments, Cl Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars Cash flow, corporate, current dollars Civilian labor force—See also Employment. Employment Employment as percent of population Labor force Unemployed Coincident indicators Composite index Composite index, rate of change Diffusion index Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded, Commercial and industrial loans Loans outstanding, constant dollars Loans outstandjng, current dollars Loans outstanding, net change Compensation—See also Income. Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm business sector Compensation of employees Compensation of employees, percent of national income Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm business sector Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm economy Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm economy. Wage and benefit decisions, first year Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction Composite indexes Coincident indicators Index Rate of change. Ratio to lagging indicator index. Lagging indicators Index Rate of change. Leading indicators Capital investment commitments. Eleven leaders, index Eleven leaders, rate of change Inventory investment and purchasing. Money and financial flows. Profitability... See notes at end of index. 108 FINDING GUIDE Series Current issue ^ numbers) number Charts Tables 604 Historical data (issue date) Series description (*) 7/89 83 58 974 975 971 100 61 970 976 978 977 972 973 13 22 616 55 56 22 38 24 24 38 38 38 38 97 65 76 76 76 67 67 76 76 76 76 76 76 2/89 12/88 7/89 7/89 7/89 12/89 12/89 12/89 7/89 7/89 7/89 7/89 7/89 '23" 23 37 37 37 37 37 92 65 7/89 9/89 56 39 20 37 37 37 Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Construction Building permits, new private housing Contracts awarded, commercial and industrial buildings Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales.... Gross private fixed investment Nonresidential, constant dollars Nonresidential, percent of GNP Nonresidential structures, constant dollars Residential, constant dollars Residential, percent of GNP Housing starts Consumer expectations, index Consumer finished goods, producer price index Consumer goods and materials, new orders Consumer goods, industrial production Consumer installment credit Credit outstanding Net change Ratio to personal income Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate Consumer prices—See also International comparisons. All items Food 93 94 33 33 72 72 11/88 11/88 35 35 29 76 13,25 24 67 67 9/89 1/89 24 12 14 12 13 33 23 23 72 65 65 7/89 1/88 7/89 34 21 21 101 72 112 295 15,35 35 32 46 73 73 71 82 4/89 4/89 4/89 11/88 32 32 32 26 20 20 64 64 1/89 1/89 14 14 24 24 37 48 66 66 75 5/88 5/88 11/89 5/89 22 22 22 51 1/86 9/89 5 26 26 97 11 965 333 914 35 34 29 29 70 70 442 90 441 37 51 17 51 18,51 89 62 89 62,89 3/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 9 9 9 9 920 920c 951 940 9 10 39 36 11 23 60 '74' 60 66 10/89 10/89 10/89 10/89 5/88 5 5 21 101 72 112 15,35 35 32 73 7.3 71 4/89 4/89 4/89 32 32 32 345 280 49 45 87 82 12/89 11/88 46 46 64 30,47 70,83 9/89 46 12/89 346 49 340 .49 87 341 348 349 49 50 50 87 5 7/89 7/89 11/89 60 10/89 10/89 10/89 920 920c 940 10 39 11 930 930c 10 39 10/89 10/89 10 39 11 11 11 1/86 10/89 10/89 1/88 1/88 1/88 914 910 910c 915 917 916 "eo" 60 60 60 46 5 53 53 Services Consumer sentiment, index Consumption expenditures—See Personal consumption expenditures. Contract awards, Defense Department Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, constant dollars Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dollars Corporate bond yields Corporate profits—See Profits. Credit Borrowing, total private Business loans Loans outstanding, constant dollars Loans outstanding, current dollars Loans outstanding, net change Consumer installment credit Credit outstanding Net change Ratio to personal income Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate Credit outstanding, percent change Mortgage debt, net change Crude and intermediate materials, change in producer prices Crude materials, producer price index Debt-See Credit. Defense and space equipment, industrial production .... Defense Department Gross obligations incurred Gross unpaid obligations Net outlays Personnel, civilian Personnel, military '. Prime contract awards Defense products Inventories, manufacturers' New orders, manufacturers' Shipments, manufacturers' Unfilled orders, manufacturers' Defense products industries, employment Defense purchases, goods and services Defense purchases, percent of GNP Deficit—See Government. Deflators—See Price indexes. Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans Deliveries, vendor performance Diffusion indexes Capital appropriations, manufacturing Coincident indicators Employees, manufacturing and trade Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls Industrial production Industrial production, components Initial claims, State unemployment insurance Inventories, manufacturing and trade , Lagging indicators Leading indicators New orders, durable goods industries New orders, durable goods industries, components.. New orders, manufacturing Plant and equipment expenditures Profits, manufacturing Profits, manufacturing and trade Raw industrials, spot market prices Raw industrials, spot market prices, components .... Sales, manufacturing and trade Selling prices, manufacturing Selling prices, retail trade Selling prices, wholesale trade Stock prices, 500 common stocks Workweek, manufacturing Workweek, manufacturing, components Current issue Series (paje numbers) number Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) Series description (*) 29 13,25 9 69 23 24 66 67 5/88 11/89 21 17 86 248 87 89 249 28 83 334 25 47 25 25 47 25 13 48 12,21 22 67 83 67 67 83 9/89 10/88 9/89 9/89 10/88 4/89 2/89 5/89 4/89 1/89 40 40 40 40 40 24 66 113 95 39 35 32 15,35 33 73 72 73 72 8/89 320 322 120 58 49 49 15 22 84,95 84 97 65 3/89 3/89 2/89 12/88 49 49 525 53 90 6/89 55 20 12,23 66 12/89 21 10 116 23 34 66 73 12/89 5/88 21 35 9/89 64 65 'si' 15 12 33 33 33 34 110 32 101 72 112 15,35 35 32 73 73 71 4/89 4/89 4/89 32 32 32 66 113 95 39 111 33 35 32 15,35 33 32 32 73 72 73 72 72 71 8/89 8/89 8/89 2/88 8/89 9/86 33 33 33 34 31 31 98 331 28 8/89 5/89 51 50 11/89 557 54 517 543 580 578 577 525 53 53 54 55 55 53 90 90 91 91 91 90 6/89 6/89 7/89 6/89 6/89 6/89 55 55 56 56 56 55 559 548 588 561 570 564 565 54 53 54 54 55 55 55 91 90 91 91 91 91 91 9/88 9/88 9/88 9/88 6/89 11/89 11/89 17 15 17 15 5 43 43 39 33 32 12,21 72 64 2/88 2/89 34 17 965 951 974 963 966 38 36 37 11/89 10/89 7/89 12/89 10/89 22 5 37 5 12 962 975 952 950 964 '36 36 37 2/88 7/89 10/89 10/89 9/88 37 5 5 15 971 970 960 972 967 38 38 37 38 37 7/89 12/89 5/88 7/89 10/89 '37' 23 37 37 25 973 976 978 977 968 961 38 38 38 38 37 36 75 74 76 74 75 78 74 76 74 74 75 77 76 76 75 76 75 79 76 76 76 76 75 74 77 7/89 7/89 7/89 7/89 12/88 12/89 37 37 37 25 5 10/89 GUIDE—Continued Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Earnings—See Compensation. Employment and unemployment Civilian labor force Defense Department personnel, civilian Defense Department personnel, military Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments Rate of change Total Employees in goods-producing industries Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls. Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, Dl Employment, civilian Employment, defense products industries, Employment, ratio to population Help-wanted advertising in newspapers. Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment Initial claims, State unemployment insurance Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Dl Overtime hours, manufacturing Participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age Participation rate, females 20 years and over Participation rate, males 20 years and over Part-time workers for economic reasons. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities Unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age. Unemployed, females 20 years and over Unemployed, full-time workers Unemployed, males 20 years and over Unemployment, average duration Unemployment, civilian Unemployment rate, civilian Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over Unemployment rate, insured Workweek, manufacturing Workweek, manufacturing, components Workweek, manufacturing, Dl Equipment—See Investment, capital. Expectations—See Anticipations and intentions. Exports—See International transactions. Federal funds rate Federal Government—See Government. Federal Reserve, member bank borrowings from.. Final sales in constant dollars Financial flows, Cl Fixed investment—See Investment, capital. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product Foreign trade—See International transactions. France—See International comparisons. Free reserves Goods output in constant dollars Government budget Federal expenditures Federal receipts Federal surplus or deficit State and local expenditures. State and local receipts. State and local surplus or deficit Surplus or deficit, total Government purchases of goods and services Federal, constant dollars Federal, current dollars Federal, percent of GNP. National defense.... National defense, percent of GNP. State and local, constant dollars State and local, current dollars State and local, percent of GNP Total, constant dollars Total, current dollars Gross domestic business product, fixed-weighted price index Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit Gross national product GNP, constant dollars. GNP, constant dollars, differences GNP, constant dollars, percent changes GNP, current dollars GNP, current dollars, differences GNP, current dollars, percent changes GNP, ratio to money supply Ml Goods output in constant dollars Implicit price deflator Per capita GNP, constant dollars Gross private domestic investment—See Investment, capital. H Help-wanted advertising in newspapers Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment Hours, manufacturing Average weekly hours Average weekly hours, components Average weekly hours, Dl Average weekly overtime Current issue Series (page numbers) number Charts Tables 441 578 577 51 55 55 48c 48 40 974 41 963 442 570 90 46 60 5 962 21 453 452 451 448 42 446 445 447 444 91 37 43 44 45 1 39 17 17 38 14,17; 36 51 55 17 16 16 12,16 36 16 51 51 51 51 17 51 51 51 51 15,18 18,51 18 18 18 12,16 961 36 Historical data (issue date) 3/89 6/89 6/89 61 62 76 62 74 89 91 62 61 61 61 74 61 89 89 89 89 62 89 89 89 89 62 62,89 62 62 62 61 77 74 8/89 8/89 8/89 7/89 8/89 12/89 3/89 6/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 4/89 2/88 8/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 8/89 8/89 Series description (*) 9 56 56 5 5 37 5 5 9 5 9 9 9 12/89 119 94 213 917 11/88 10/88 1/88 33 40 11 35 38 5 11/89 311 11/88 502 501 500 512 511 510 298 52 52 52 52 52 52 46 90 90 90 90 90 90 83 11/89 11/89 11/89 11/89 11/89 11/89 11/88 53 53 53 53 5.3 5$ 263 262 265 564 565 267 266 268 261 260 43 43 47 55 55 43 43 47 43 43 81 81 83 91 91 81 81 83 81 81 11/88 11/88 11/88 11/89 11/89 11/88 11/88 11/88 11/88 11/88 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 11/89 9/89 49 28 9/89 9/89 9/89 12/89 12/89 12/89 11/89 9/89 11/89 10/88 38 38 38 38 38 38 30 14 38 38 311 50 50b 50c 200 200b 200c 107 49 310 217 19,40 31 20 71 63 46 60 16 16 61 61 3/89 3/89 12,16 61 77 74 61 12/89 961 21 39 40 36 16 63,80 80 80 Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Housing Housing starts Housing units authorized by local building permits.. Residential GPDI, constant dollars Residential GPDI, percent of GNP Current issue Series (page numbers) number Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) Series description (*) 249 25 13,25 25 47 4/89 9/89 9/89 10/88 24 24 40 40 310 48 345 49 45 87 82 70,83 9/89 73 82 12/89 8/89 11/88 46 33 26 26 11 11 28 29 67 67 67 83 I Implicit price deflator, GNP Imports—See International transactions. Income Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm business sector Compensation of employees Compensation of employees, percent of national income Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm business sector Consumer installment credit, ratio to personal income Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income Disposable personal income, constant dollars Disposable personal income, current dollars Disposable personal income, per capita, constant dollars Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm economy Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm economy Income on foreign investment in the United States Income on U.S. investment abroad Interest, net Interest, net, percent of national income National income Personal income, constant dollars Personal income, current dollars Personal income less transfer payments, constant dollars Rate of change Total Personal income, ratio to money supply M2 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income Rental income of persons with CCAdj Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent of national income Wage and benefit decisions, first year Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction .... Incorporations, new businesses Industrial commodities, producer price index Industrial production—See also International comparisons. Business equipment Consumer goods Defense and space equipment ., Durable manufactures Nondurable manufactures Total Total, components Total, Dl Total, rate of change Industrials, raw, spot market prices Components Diffusion index Spot market index Installment credit—See Credit. Insured unemployment Average weekly initial claims Average weekly initial claims, Dl Average weekly insured unemployment rate Interest, net Interest, net, percent of national income Interest rates Bank rates on short-term business loans Corporate bond yields Federal funds rate Mortgage yields, secondary market Municipal bond yields Prime rate charged by banks Treasury bill rate Treasury bond yields Intermediate materials, producer price index International comparisons Consumer prices Canada France Italy Japan United Kingdom. United States. West Germany. Industrial production Canada France Italy Japan OECD, European countries United Kingdom United States. West Germany 11/89 12/89 11/88 64 30,47 346' 95 286 49 15,35 45 287 225 224 47 40 40 11/88 10/88 10/88 227 40 10/88 340 49 341 652 651 288 289 220 52 223 49 57 57 45 47 45 19 40 51c 51 108 282 46 46 87 93 93 82 83 82 63 63 9/89 9/89 11/88 11/88 10/88 11/89 11/89 5 57 57 47 47 46 11 11 39 14,19 63 31 71 45 82 11/89 11/89 11/89 11/88 11 30 47 lb'88 11/88 47 47 11/88 7/89 7/89 47 53 53 11/89 7/89 5/89 11 21 51 1/89 1/89 10/89 1/89 1/89 6/89 12 12 13 12 12 12 283 284 47 45 285 348 349 47 50 50 53 13 335 19 23 48 83 82 63 65 85 24 67 76 22 75 65 557 54 91 20 73 63 74 20 63 47 14,20,58 63,94 78 966 37 75 47c 39 10/89 12/87 967 23 37 28 79 75 69 10/89 1/88 25 25 5 962 45 289 12,16 36 18 45 47 61 74 62 82 83 4/89 2/88 8/89 11/88 11/88 47 47 67 116 119 118 117 109 114 115 332 35 34 34 34 34 35 34 34 48 73 73 72 73 73 73 72 73 86 9/89 5/88 2/88 5/88 5/88 5/89 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 50 733 736 737 738 732 320 735 59 59 59 59 59 49 59 96 95 96 95 95 84,95 95 4/88 4/88 4/88 4/88 4/88 3/89 4/88 61 61 61 60 49 61 94 58 723 94 58 726 727 94 58 94 728 58 94 721 58 722 58 94 47 14,20,58 63,94 725 58 94 12/89 6/89 6/89 6/89 6/89 6/89 6/89 6/89 59 59 59 59 58 58 12 59 See notes at end of index. 109 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) International comparisons— Continued Stock prices Canada France Italy Japan . United Kingdom United States West Germany International transactions Balance on goods and services Balance on merchandise trade Exports excluding military aid Exports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military Exports of domestic agricultural products Exports of goods and services, constant dollars Exports of goods and services, current dollars Exports of goods and services, excluding military Exports of nonelectrical machinery Imports, general Imports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military Imports of goods and services Imports of goods and services, constant dollars Imports of goods and services, current dollars Imports of petroleum and petroleum products Income on foreign investment in the United States Income on U S investment abroad Net exports of goods and services, constant dollars Net exports of goods and services, current dollars Net exports of goods and services, percent of GNP Inventories Business inventories, change, constant dollars Business inventories, change, current dollars Business inventories, change, percent of GNP Defense products, manufacturers' Finished goods manufacturers' Inventories to sales ratio, manufacturing and trade Inventory investment and purchasing Cl Manufacturing and trade Manufacturing and trade, change Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars Manufacturing and trade Dl Manufacturing and trade, on hand and on order change Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers' Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers', change Investment, capital Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, Dl Construction contracts, commercial and industrial Construction expenditures, business, plus machinery and equipment sales Gross private domestic investment Business inventories, change— See Inventories. Fixed investment, constant dollars Fixed investment, current dollars Nonresidential, constant dollars Nonresidential, percent of GNP Nonresidential producers' durable equipment, constant dollars Nonresidential structures, constant dollars Residential, constant dollars Residential, percent of GNP. Total, constant dollars .. Total, current dollars .... New orders, nondefense capital goods, constant dollars New orders, nondefense capital goods, current dollars Plant and equipment Contracts and orders, constant dollars Contracts and orders current dollars Expenditures by business constant dollars Expenditures by business, current dollars Expenditures by business Dl Investment, foreign Income on foreign investment in the United States Income on U.S. investment abroad Italy— See International comparisons. Current issue Series (page numbers) number Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) Series description (*) 743 746 747 748 742 19 745 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 6/89 6/89 6/89 6/89 6/89 6/89 6/89 63 63 63 63 63 25 63 667 622 602 618 604 256 252 668 606 612 620 616 669 257 253 614 652 651 57 57 56 57 56 44 44 57 56 56 57 56 57 44 44 56 57 57 93 93 92 93 92' 82 82 93 92 92 93 92 93 82 82 92 93 93 9/89 9/89 7/89 9/89 7/89 7/89 9/89 9/89 57 57 56 57 56 44 44 57 56 56 57 56 57 44 44 56 57 57 255 44 82 10/88 44 250 251 44 47 82 83 10/88 10/88 44 44 30 245 247 559 65 77 915 71 31 70 975 26,42 42 47 54 27 15,27 11 27 26 27 38 68,81 81 83 91 68 68 60 68 68 68 76 9/89 8/89 1/88 9/89 9/89 9/89 7/89 40 40 40 17 17 17 5 17 17 17 37 36 26 68 9/89 17 78 27 68 12/88 17 38 26 68 12/88 17 97 11 965 914 9 24 24 37 5/88 5/88 11/89 '23' 66 66 75 60 66 1/86 5/88 22 22 22 5 21 69 24 67 11/89 17 243 242 86 248 42 42 25 47 81 81 67 83 10/88 10/88 40 40 40 40 88 87 89 249 241 240 25 25 25 47 42 42 67 67 67 83 81 81 9/89 9/89 9/89 10/88 10/88 10/88 40 40 40 40 40 40 27 23 66 12/89 15 24 23 66 12/89 15 20 10 100 61 970 12,23 23 24 24 38 66 66 67 67 76 12/89 12/89 12/89 12/89 12/89 21 21 652 651 57 57 93 93 9/89 9/89 57 57 10/88 10/88 9/89 7/89 7/89 9/89 7/89 9/89 11/88 10/88 10/88 10/88 9/88 12/88 9/89 10/88 23 23 J Japan— See International comparisons. L Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product Labor cost per unit of output, business sector Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing Index Percent change Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business. Labor force— See Employment. Lagging indicators Composite index Composite index, rate of change Diffusion index See notes at end of index. 110 68 63 30 30 70 70 11/89 28 28 62 62 26 30 15 29 70 97 70 11/89 11/89 11/89 '28' 930 930c 952 10 39 36 60 10/89 10/89 10/89 74 9/89 28 5 5 Current issue Series (page numbers) number Charts Tables Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Leading indicators Composite index Composite index, rate of change Diffusion index Liabilities of business failures Liquid assets, change in total Loans— See Credit N National defense— See Defense. National Government— See Government. National income— See Income. New orders, manufacturers' Capital goods industries, nondefense, constant dollars Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dollars Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, constant dollars Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dollars Defense products Durable goods industries, constant dollars Durable goods industries, current dollars Components Diffusion index New orders, manufacturing, Dl :....; Nonresidential fixed investment Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars Structures, constant dollars Total constant dollars Total, percent of GNP 0 Obligations incurred Defense Department Obligations unpaid Defense Department OECD European countries industrial production Orders— See New orders and Unfilled orders. Outlays, Defense Department Output— See also Gross national product and Industrial production. Goods output, constant dollars Labor cost per unit of Index Percent change. Per hour, business sector Per hour, nonfarm business sector Ratio to capacity, manufacturing Ratio to capacity, materials Overtime hours, manufacturing P Participation rates, civilian labor force Both sexes 16-19 years of age Females 20 years and over, Males 20 years and over. Personal consumption expenditures Automobiles Durable goods, constant dollars Durable goods, current dollars Nondurable goods, constant dollars Nondurable goods, current dollars Services, constant dollars Services, current dollars Total, constant dollars . Total, current dollars ... Total, percent of GNP Personal income— See Income. Personal saving Personal saving rate Petroleum and petroleum products, imports '. . .. . . . Series description (*) 950 14 104 10 39 36 33 31 '74' 10/89 10/89 10/89 72 71 7/89 4/89 78 27 68 12/88 17 38 84 8 26 20 12,21 68 64 64 12/88 17 14 15 917 11 60 1/88 5 104 105 85 106 102 107 108 33 118 117 31 31 31 13,31 31 31 31 32 34 34 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 73 73 4/89 4/89 4/89 4/89 4/89 29 29 29 30 29 30 30 31 35 35 27 24 8 23 23 12,21 66 66 64 12/89 12/89 4/89 15 15 15 20 12,23 66 12/89 21 10 548 7 6 23 53 21 21 12/89 9/88 4/89 4/89 21 15 15 15 964 971 37 38 66 90 64 64 77 75 76 9/88 7/89 15 37 88 87 86 248 25 25 25 47 67 67 67 83 9/89 9/89 9/89 10/88 40 40 40 40 517 543 721 53 53 58 90 90 94 6/89 6/89 6/89 55 55 58 580 54 91 7/89 56 49 20 63 9/89 14 62 62 370 358 82 84 21 30 15 50 50 20 20 16 70 97 88 88 64 64 61 11/89 11/89 12/89 12/89 28 1/89 1/89 8/89 52 14 14 5 453 452 451 51 51 51 89 89 89 3/89 3/89 3/89 9 9 9 55 233 232 238 236 239 237 231 230 235 22 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 47 65 80 80 81 81 81 81 80 80 83 9/89 10/88 10/88 10/88 10/88 10/88 10/88 10/88 10/88 10/88 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 292 293 614 46 46 56 82 83 92 910 910c M Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers' inventories Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers' inventories, change Materials, capacity utilization rate Materials, new orders for consumer goods and Materials prices— See Price indexes. Merchandise trade— See International transactions. Military— See Defense. Money and financial flows, Cl Money supply Liquid assets, change in total Money supply Ml, constant dollars Money supply Ml, percent changes Money supply M2, constant dollars Money supply M2, percent changes Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 Mortgage debt, net change Mortgage yields, secondary market Municipal bond yields data (issue date) 60 1/89 4/89 11/89 11/89 9/86 6/88 5/88 11/88 11/88 7/89 5 "5" 34 29 '52' 48 48 56 Continued Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Plant and equipment— See also Investment, capital. Contracts and orders, constant dollars , Contracts and orders, current dollars Expenditures by business, constant dollars. Expenditures by business, current dollars. Expenditures by business, Dl Population, civilian employment as percent of Price indexes Consumer prices— See also International comparisons. All items Food Deflators Fixed-weighted, gross domestic business product Implicit price deflator, GNP Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business Producer prices All commodities Capital equipment Crude materials Finished consumer goods. Industrial commodities Intermediate materials Sensitive crude and intermediate materials..... Raw industrials, spot market prices Components Diffusion index . . Spot market index Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change in producer prices Sensitive materials prices, percent change Stock prices— See also International comparisons. 500 common stocks 500 common stocks Dl Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business Prices, selling Retail trade Dl Wholesale trade, Dl Prime contract awards, Defense Department Prime rate charged by banks Producer prices — See Price indexes Producers' durable equipment, nonresidential, GPDI Production— See Gross national product and Industrial production. Productivity Output per hour, business sector Output per hour, nonfarm business sector Profits Corporate profits after tax Constant dollars Current dollars With IVA and CCAdj, constant dollars With IVA and CCAdj, current dollars Corporate profits before tax With IVA and CCAdj With IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income Manufacturing and trade Dl Manufacturing, Dl Per dollar of sales, manufacturing Profitability, Cl Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income Ratio, profits with IVA and CCAdj to corporate domestic income Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income R Raw industrials, spot market prices Components Diffusion index Spot market index Rental income of persons with CCAdj Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent of national income Reserves, free Residential fixed investment, constant dollars Current issue Series (page numbers) number Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) Series description (*) 21 21 20 10 100 61 970 90 12,23 23 24 24 38 17 66 66 67 67 76 62 12/89 12/89 12/89 12/89 12/89 320 322 120 49 49 15 84,95 84 97 3/89 3/89 2/89 49 49 311 310 26 48 48 29 84 84 70 11/89 11/89 11/89 49 38 28 330 333 331 334 335 332 98 48 48 48 48 48 48 28 85 86 85 86 85 86 69 5/89 5/89 5/89 5/89 5/89 5/89 8/89 50 51 50 51 51 50 51 967' '37' 10/89 '25' 23 28 79 75 69 1/88 25 98 99 28 13,28 69 69 8/89 2/89 51 25 19 968 26 13,28 37 29 69 75 70 12/88 12/88 11/89 25 25 28 976 978 977 525 109 38 38 38 53 35 76 76 76 90 73 7/89 7/89 7/89 6/89 2/88 37 37 37 55 35 88 25 67 9/89 40 3/89 23 9 50 50 11 88 88 60 12/89 12/89 1/88 52 52 5 18 16 80 79 28 28 29 29 69 69 69 69 9/89 9/89 9/89 9/89 26 26 26 26 286 287 972 960 15 916 22 45 47 38 37 29 11 29 82 83 76 75 70 60 69 11/88 11/88 26 26 37 37 27 5 26 81 282 29 45 70 82 9/89 11/88 26 47 283 47 83 11/88 47 967 23 284 '37' 28 45 79 75 69 82 285 93 89 47 33 25 83 72 67 10/89 '25' 1/88 25 47 11/88 11/88 11/88 9/89 Historical data (issue date) Series description (*) 249 47 83 10/88 40 59 54 22 22 65 65 8/89 8/89 20 20 213 40 80 10/88 38 69 57 56 973 77 59 54 24 14.22 • 22 38 15,27 22 22 67 65 65 76 68 65 65 11/89 8/89 8/89 7/89 8/89 8/89 8/89 17 17 17 37 17 20 20 .. 295 298 290 292 293 46 46 46 46 46 82 83 82 82 83 11/88 11/88 11/88 11/88 11/88 26 48 48 48 48 .. 98 99 588 28 13,28 54 69 69 91 8/89 2/89 9/88 51 25 17 967 23 37 28 79 75 69 10/89 1/88 25 .. 19 968 13,28 37 69 75 12/88 12/88 25 25 .. 114 115 34 34 72 73 5/88 5/88 35 35 .. 91 60 5 962 15,18 16 12,16 36 62 61 61 74 3/89 3/89 4/89 2/88 9 9 8 8 446 445 447 444 37 51 51 51 51 18,51 89 89 89 89 62,89 3/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 3/89 9 9 9 9 9 43 44 45 18 18 18 62 62 62 3/89 3/89 8/89 9 9 8 561 92 96 25 54 13 21 21 91 97 64 64 9/88 2/89 9/88 9/88 V Velocity of money GNP to money supply Ml, ratio .. Personal income to money supply M2, ratio Vendor performance, slower deliveries 107 108 32 31 31 12,21 71 71 64 11/89 11/89 W Wages and salaries— See Compensation. West Germany— See International comparisons. Wholesale (producer) prices— See Price indexes. Workweek, manufacturing Average weekly hours Components Diffusion index 1 12,16 961 '36' 61 77 74 Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP Residential structures— See Housing. Retail sales, constant dollars Retail sales, current dollars '23' 370 358 916 7/89 5/88 9/89 1/88 9/89 Current issue Series (page numbers) number Charts Tables Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) 47 35 40 s Salaries— See Compensation. Sales Final sales, constant dollars Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars Manufacturing and trade sales Dl Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade Retail sales constant dollars Retail sales, current dollars Saving Business saving Government surplus or deficit . Gross saving Personal saving . . Personal saving rate Selling prices— See Prices, selling Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change in producer prices Sensitive materials prices, percent change Shipments of defense products Spot market prices, raw industrials Components Diffusion index Spot market index State and local government— See Government. Stock prices— See also International comparisons. 500 common stocks ... 500 common stocks, Dl Surplus— See Government. . '25' T Treasury bill rate Treasury bond yields U Unemployment Duration of unemployment average Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment Initial claims for unemployment insurance Initial claims for unemployment insurance, Dl Number unemployed Both sexes 16-19 years of age Females 20 years and over Full-time workers Males 20 years and over Total unemployed Unemployment rates Civilian 15 weeks and over . . . Insured unemployment Unfilled orders, manufacturers' Defense products Durable goods industries, constant dollars, change Durable goods industries, current dollars Durable goods industries current dollars change United Kingdom— See International comparisons. .. .. .... 2/89 15 'l5' 15 30 30 17 8/89 5 12/89 "5 NOTE: CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GNP, gross national product; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. * The number shown is the page of the Handbook of Cyclical Indicators (1984) on which the series description appears. 111 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES Series are listed below according to the sections of this report in which they appear. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect relationships or order among the series. "M" following a series title indicates monthly data; "Q" indicates quarterly data. Data apply to the whole period except when indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter). To save space, the commonly used sources listed below are referred to by number: Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, and McGrawHill Information Systems Company (23,66) 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).—The Conference Board (24,66) 12. Index of net business formation (M).—Source 1 and Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (23,65) 13. Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (23,65) 14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (33,72) 34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars (Q).— Source 1 (29,70) 35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source 1 (29,70) 36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars (M).—Sources 1 and 2 (26,68) 37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3 (18,51,62,89) 38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order (M).—Source 2 (26,68) Following the source for each series is an indication of the pages on which that series appears. The "Series Finding Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers for each series. 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations (Q) .-Sou rce 2 (29,70) 39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over (EOM).—American Bankers Association (33,72) 16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars (Q).— Source 1 (28,69) 40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goodsproducing industries (M).—Source 3 (17,62) I-A. Composite Indexes 18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars (Q).— Source 1 (28,69) 19. index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).— Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96) 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars (M)-Sources 1, 2, and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company (12,23,66) 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (M).—Source 3 (14,17,62) 910. Composite index of eleven leading indicators (includes series 1, 5, 8, 19, 20, 29, 32, 83, 92, 99, 106) (M).-Source 1 (10,39,60) 914. Composite index of capital investment commitments (includes series 12,20,29) (M).-Source 1 (60) 915. Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 99) (M).-Source 1 (11,60) 916. Composite index of profitability (includes series 19,26,80) (M).-Soureel (11,60) 917. Composite index of money and financial flows (includes series 104, 106, 111) (M).-Source 1 (11,60) 920. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators (includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source 1 (10,39,60) 930. Composite index of seven lagging indicators (includes series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109, 120) (M).-Source 1 (10,39,60) 940. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to fagging composite index (series 930) (M).—Source 1 (11,60) I-B. Cyclical Indicators 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—Source 3 (12,16,61,77) 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis 21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).— Source 3 (16,61) 22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to total corporate domestic income (Q).—Source 1 (29,69) 23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials (M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. (Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981, this series may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.) (28,69,79) 24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Source 2 (23,66) 25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M).-Source 2 (21,64) 26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Sources 1 and 3 (29,70) 27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2 (23,66) 28. New private housing units started (M).—Source 2 (25,67) 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M).-Source 2 (13,25,67) (12,16,61) 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Q).— Source 1 (26,42,68,81) 6. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, durable goods industries (M).-Source 2 (21,64,77) 31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories (M).-Sourcesland2 (26,68) 7. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods industries (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (21,64) 32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries diffusion index (M).—National Association of Purchasing Management and Purchasing Management Association of Chicago (12,21,64) 8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2 (12,21,64) 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space (M) .—McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (23,66) 112 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies (M).— Sources 1; 4; American Council of Life Insurance; Federal National Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; and Federal Home Loan Bank Board (32,71) 42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (M).-Sou rce 3 (17,62) 43. Unemployment rate (M).-Source 3 (18,62) 44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (M).-Source 3 (18,62) 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (18,62) 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).—The Conference Board (16,61) 47. Index of industrial production (M).—Source 4 (14,20,39,58,63,78,94) 48. Employee hours in nonagricuitural establishments (M).-Source3 (17,39,61) 49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source 1 (20,63) 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source 1 (19,39,40,63,80) 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars (M).-Source 1 (14,19,39,63) 52. Personal income in 1982 dollars (M).—Source 1 (19,63) 53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Source 1 (19,63) 54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).-Source 2 (22,65) 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles (Q).-Sourcel (22,65) 56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars (M).-Sourcesland2 (22,65) 57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources land 2 (14,22,65) 58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M).—University of Michigan, Survey Research Center (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (22,65) 59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (22,65) 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to number of persons unemployed (M).—Sources 1, 3, and The Conference Board (16,61) 61. New plant and equipment expenditures by business in current dollars (Q).-Sou rce 2 (24,67) 62. Sndex of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (M).-Sources 1 and 4 (15,30,70,97) AND OF 63. Index of unit labor cost, business sector (Q).— Source 3 (30,70) 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (Q). -Source 1 (30,47,70,83) 90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (M).—Sources 1 and 3 (17,62) 65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods (EOM). -Source 2 (27,68) 92. Change in manufacturers' untied orders in 1982 91. Average duration of unemployment in weeks (M).— Source 3 (15,18,62) dollars, durable goods industries (M).— Sources 1, 2, and 3 (13,97) 66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (EOM).— Source 4 (35,73) 93. Free reserves (M).—Source 4 67. Bank rates on short-term business toans (Q).— Source 4. (35,73) 94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve (M).-Source4 (33,72) 68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross domestic product in 1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations (Q).-Source 1 (30,70) 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income (M).—Sources 1 and 4 (15,35,73) 69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (M).—Source 2 (24,67) 70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1982 dol; lars (EOM).-Sources land 2 (27,68) 71. Manufacturing and trade inventories in current dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2 (27,68) 72. Commercial and industrial Soans outstanding in-current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4 and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (35,73) 73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures (M). -Source 4 (20,63) 74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures (M).-Source 4 (20,63) 75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods (M).-Source4 (22,65) 76. Index of industrial production, • business equipment (M).-Source 4 (24,67) 77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (15,27,68) 71. Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order (EOM).—Source 2 (27,68) 79. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars (Q).-Sourcel (29,69) SO. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (29,69) 81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate domestic income (Q).— Source 1 (29,70) 82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (M).— Source 4 (20,64) S3. Index of consumer expectations (Q,M).—University of Michigan, Survey Research Center (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (13,97) 84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (M).-Source 4 (20,64) 85. Chaivlninoneysupp|yMl.(M).-Source4 (31,71) (33,72) 96. Manufacturers' united orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Source 2 (21,64) 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (EQQ).—The Conference Board (24,66) 98. Percent change in producer prices for sensitive crude and intermedia!© materials (M).—Sources 1 and 3 (28,69) 99. Change in sensitive materials prices (M).—Sources 1, 3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. (13,28,69) 100. Hew plant and equipment expenditures by business in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 2 (24,67) 101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982 dollars (M).—Sources 1. 4, and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (15,35,73) 102. Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4 (31,71) 104. Change in total liquid assets (M).—Sources 1 and 4 (31,71) 105. iorey supply il in I9S2 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 4 (31,71) 106. loney supply 12 in 19S2 dollars (M).—Sources 1 and 4 (13,31,71) 107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply il (Q).-Sourcesl and 4 (31,71) 950. Diffusion index of eleven leading indicator components (M).-Sou reel (36,74) 95L Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator components (M).—Soureel (36,74) 952. Diffusion index of seven Sagging indicator components (M).-Sou reel (36,74) 960. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing—about; 600 companies (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (37,75) 961. Diffusion index of average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing industries (M).-Sources 1 and 3 (36,74,77) 962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, 51 areas (M).—Source 1 and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (36,74) 963. Diffusion index of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 349 industries (M).—Source 3 (36,74) 964. Diffusion index of manufacturers' new orders, 34-35 durable goods industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2 (37,75,77) 965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations in 19S2 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries (Q).—The Conference Board (37,75) 966. Diffusion index of industrial production, 24 industries (M).-Sources 1 and 4 (37,75,78) 967. Diffusion index of spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials (M).—Sources 1, 3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. (37,75,79) 961. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks, 38-12 industries (M).—Source 1 and Standard & Poor's Corporation (37,75) 108. Ratio, personal income to m«y supply 12 (M).— Sources 1 and 4 (31,71) Average prim© rate charged by banks (M).—Source 4 (15,35,73) 970. Diffusion index of new plant and equipment expenditures by business, 21 industries (Q).—Sources 1 and 2 (38,76) Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets (Q).-Source 4 (32,72) Change in business and consumer credit outstanding (M).—Sources 1, 4, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (32,72) 112 Net change in business toans (M).—Sources 1, 4, and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (32,71) Net change in consumer installment credit (M).— Source 4 (32,72) Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury ^ biSSs(M).-Source 4 (34,72) 11Sl Yield-on long-term Treasury (M).—U.S. Department of the Treasury (34,73) 972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).— Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) m 116> 86. Gross private noraresidintial fixed investment in 19S2 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67) 117> 87. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1912 dollars/structures (Q).-Source 1 (25,67) 118§ .Yield @rs new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M).—Citibank and U.S. Department of the Treasury (34,73) Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).—The Bond Buyer (34,73) Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).— U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration (34,73) 88. Gross private nonresident sal ted investment in 1982 dollars, producers' durable equipment (Q).— Source 1 (25,67) 119, Federal funds rate (M).—Source 4 89. Gross private residential feed investment in 19S2 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67) 120. Change-in' consumer price index for services (M).— Sources 1 and 2 (15,97) I-C. Diffusion Waxes (34,72) 971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about 600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).— Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 974. Diffusion index • of • number of employees, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reprtsng (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 113 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued 976. Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing— about 600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale tradeabout 400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 243. Gross private domestic fixed investment in 1982 dollars (Q).-Soureel (42,81) 245. Change in business inventories in current dollars (Q).-Sourcel (42,81) 247. Change in business inventories as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 248. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade-about 400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 249. Gross private residential fixed investment as a II-A. National Income and Product 251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars (Q).-Sourcel gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (44,82) (47,83) 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Q).— Source 1 (26,42,68,81) 252. Exports of goods and services in current dollars 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source 1 (19,39,40,63,80) 253. imports of goods and services in current dollars 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (Q).—Source 1 (30,47,70,83) 255. Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars 200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).— Source 1 (40,80) 256. Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars 213. Final sales in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 257. Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars (40,80) (Q).-Source 1 (Q).-Source 1 (Q).-Source 1 (Q).-Source 1 (Q).-Source 1 (44,82) (44,82) (44,82) (44,82) (44,82) 289. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q).— Sou reel (47,83) 290. Gross saving (Q).-Sou reel (46,82) 292. Personal saving (Q).-Source 1 (46,82) 293. Personal saving rate (Q).—Source 1 (46,83) 295. Business saving (Q).-Source 1 (46,82) 298. Government surplus or deficit (Q).—Source 1 (46,83) ll-B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity 310. Implicit price deflator for gross national product (Q).-Source 1 (48,84) 311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product (Q).—Source 1 , (48,84) 320. Consumer price index for all urban consumers (M).-Source 3 (49,59,84,95) 322. Consumer price index for all urban consumers, food (M).-Source 3 (49,84) 330. Producer price index, all commodities (M).—Source 3 (48,85) 331. Producer price index, crude materials for further processing (M).—Source 3 (48,85) 332. Producer price index, intermediate materials, supplies, and components (M).—Source 3 (48,86) 217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).-Sources land 2 (40,80) 260. Government purchases of goods and services in 220. National income in current dollars (Q).—Source 1 (45,82) 261. Government purchases of goods and services in 223. Personal income in current dollars (M).—Source 1 (40,63) 262. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser- 224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q).— Source 1 (40,80) 263. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser- 225. Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q).— Source 1 (40,80) 265. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser- 227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q).—Sources 1 and 2 (40,80) vices as a percent of gross national product (Q) .— Source 1 (47,83) 230. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,80) 266. State and local government purchases of goods and 231. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,80) 267. State and local government purchases of goods and 232. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, durable goods (Q).—Source 1 (41,80) 268. State and local government purchases of goods and 346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3 (49,50,88) services as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source 1 (47,83) 348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average first year changes (Q).—Source 3 (50,88) 280. Compensation of employees (Q) .—Source 1 (45,82) 282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and 349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average changes over life of contract (Q) —Source 3 (50,88) 233. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, durable goods (Q).—Source 1 (41,80) 235. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 236. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, nondurable goods (Q).—Source 1 (41,81) 237. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, services (Q).-Source 1 (41,81) 238. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, nondurable goods (Q).—Source 1 (41,81) 239. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, services (Q).—Source 1 (41,81) 240. Gross private domestic investment in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) 241. Gross private domestic investment in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) 242. Gross private domestic fixed investment in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) 114 current dollars (Q).—Source 1 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 vices in current dollars (Q).—Source 1 vices in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 services in current dollars (Q).—Source 1 services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) (43,81) (43,81) (43,81) (43,81) (43,81) capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source 1 (45,82) 283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments as a percent of national income (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment (Q).-Source 1 (45,82) 285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).— Source 1 (47,83) 286. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q).— Source 1 (45,82) 287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments as a percent of national income (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 288. Net interest (Q) .-Sou rce 1 (45,82) 333. Producer price index, capital equipment (M).— Source3 (48,86) 334. Producer price index, finished consumer goods (M).-Source 3 (48,86) 335. Producer price index, industrial commodities (M).-Source3 (48,85) 340. Index of average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (M).-Source 3 (49,50,87) 341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (M).-Source 3 (49,50,87) 345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3 (49,50,87) 358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3 (50,88) 370. Index of output per hour, all persons, business sector (Q).-Source 3 (50,88) ll-C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment 37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3 (18,51,62,89) 441. Civilian labor force (M).-Source 3 442. Civilian employment (M).-Source 3 (51,89) (51,89) 444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over (M).-Source 3 (51,89) 445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over (M).-Source 3 (51,89) TITLES AND OF SERIES-Continued 446. Number unemployed, both sexes 1649 years of age (M).—Sources (51,89) 447. Slumber unemployed, fuSI-tirne workers (M).— Source 3 (51,89) 448. Number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (M).—Source 3 (51,89) 451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20 years and over (M).—Source 3 (51,89) 452. Civilian labor force participation rate, femaSes 20 years and over (M).—Source 3 (51,89) 453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age (M)-Source 3 (51,89) II-D. 500. Federal Government syrpSus or deficit (Q).—Source 1 (52,90) 501. Federal Government receipts (Q).—Source 1 (52,90) 502. Federal Government expenditures (Q).—Source 1 (52,90) 510. State and test government surplus or deficit (Q).Source 1 (52,90) 511. State and local government receipts (Q).—Source 1 (52,90) 512. State and local government expenditures (Q).— Source 1 (52,90) 517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred (M).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) 525. Defense Department prime contract awards for work performed in the United States (M).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) 543. Defense Department' gross unpaid obligations outstanding (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) 548. Manufacturers' new orders, Source 2 products (M).(53,90) 570. Employment, defense products industries (M).— Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (55,91) 577. Defense Department military personnel on active duty (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports (55,91) 578. Defense Department civilian personnel, direct lire employment (EOM)—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (55,91) 5SO. Defense Department mi outlays, military functions and military assistance (M).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (54,91) 721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European countries, index of industrial production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris) (58,94) 722. United Kingdom, index ©f industrial production (M) -Central Statistical Office (London) (58,94) 723. Canada, index of industrial production (M).— Statistics Canada (Ottawa) (58,94) 725. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden) (58,94) 726. France, index of industrial production (M).-Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris) (58,94) 728. Japan, index of industrial production (M).-Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo) (58,94) 602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments (M).— Source 2 (56,92) 604. Exports of domestic agricultural products (M).Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 612. General imports (M).-Source 2 (56,92) 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military (Q).-Sourcel (57,93) 620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military (Q).-Source 1 (57,93) 622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).—Source 1 (57,93) 651. Income on U.S. investment abroad (Q).—Source 1 (57,93) 652. Income on foreign investment in the United States (Q).-Sourcel (57,93) 559. Manufacturers' inventories, (EOM).-Source 2 565. National defense purchases as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (55,91) 320. United States, consumer price index for all urban consumers (M).—Source 3 (49,59,84,95) II-E. U.S. 66S. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1 (57,93) 564. Federal Government purchases ®f goods and services, national defense (Q).—Source 1 (55,91) (M).(14,20,39,58,63,78,94) 727. Italy, index of industrial production (M).-lstituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome) (58,94) 667. Balance on goods and services (Q).—Source 1 561. ianufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (EOM).-Source 2 (54,91) index of 5SS. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (M).— Source 2 (54,91) 557. Index of Industrial production, defense and space equipment (M).-Source 4 (54,91) defense products (54,91) 47. United Source4 (57,93) 669. Imports of goods and services (Q).—Source 1 (57,93) II-F. International Compariscms 19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96) 732. United Kingdom, consumer price index (M).— Department of Employment (London); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 733. Canada, consumer price index (M).—Statistics Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,96) 735. West Germany, consumer price index (M).— Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 736. France, consumer price index (M).—Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 737. Italy, consumer price index (M).—Istituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,96) 738. Japan, consumer price index (M).—Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-Central Statistical Office (London) (59,96) 743. Canada, index of stock prices (M).-Toronto Stock Exchange (Toronto) (59,96) 745. West Germany, index of stock prices (M).— Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden) (59,96) 746. France, index of stock prices (M)-Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris) (59,96) 747. Italy, index of stock prices (M).—Banca d'ltalia (Rome) (59,96) 74S. Japan, index of stock prices (M).—Bank of Japan (Tokyo) (59,96) Superintendent of Documents U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, B.C. 20402 OFFICIAL BUSINESS Penalty for Private Use $300 FIRST-CLASS MAIL POSTAGE & FEES PASO USGPO PERMIT No. G-26