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U.S.
OF COMMERCE
Robert A. Mosbacher, Secretary
Michae! R. Darby, Under Secretary for Economic Affairs
BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Altan H.. Young, Director
Carol S. Carson, Deputy Director
George R. Green, Editor
This report is prepared by the Business Outlook Division of the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
(Telephone: 202-523-0800) Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication
are as follows:
Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review
Brian 0. Kajutti—Computer system development
Charles S. Robinson—Composite indexes
Mary D. Young—Data base manager
The cooperation of Government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully
acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and
sources at the back of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consisting
of the following persons:
Ronald E. Kutscher, Acting Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of
Labor
Ahmad AS-Sarnarrie, Office of Management and Budget
John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury
Frank de Leeuw, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
Andrea Kusko, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Peter M. Taylor, Council of Economic Advisers
Charles A. Waite, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides
a monthly look at many of the economic time
series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters.
The original BCD, which began publication
in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions
and prospects. The report's contents were based
largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident,
and lagging indicators maintained by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its
usefulness to analysts using other approaches to
business conditions analysis. Principal additions
to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on
surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's
present title was adopted.
The dominant feature of the current BCD is
the cyclical indicators section, in which each
business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way
timing classification according to its behavior at
peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is
supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of
presentation is explained in the introductory text
which begins on page 1.

Most of the data contained in this report
also are published by their source agencies. A
series finding guide and a complete list of series
titles and sources can be found at the back of the
report.

Annual subscription price: $44.00 domestic,
$55.00 foreign. Single copy price: $4.00 domestic, $5.00 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are
available on request. Address correspondence

concerning subscriptions to Superintendent of
Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402. Make checks payable
to Superintendent of Documents.

Cyclical Indicators are economic time series
which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process
and by their average timing at business cycle
peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks
and troughs combined. These indicators have
been selected primarily on the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but they also have proven
useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate
economic activity.
Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business
conditions and prospects. They include selected
components of the national income and product
accounts; measures of prices, wages, and
productivity; measures of the labor force,
employment, and unemployment; economic
data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with
major foreign countries.

New Features and Changes for This Issue . . .
Composite Indexes: Latest Release . .

iii
v

RSETIHIOCD ©F IPKESENTATBON
Seasonal Adjustments . . .\
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Part I. Cyclical Indicators
Part 11. Other Important Economic Measures
How To Read Charts
How To Locate a Series
. . .•
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes

1
1
1
1
.....
.....
.....

4
5
5
6

Data Through November
Volume 29, Number 12

Chart
A2
A3_

Composite Indexes
Leading Index Components
Coincident Index Components
Lagging Index Components

Table

10
12
14
15

60
—
—
—

16
19
21
23
26
28
31

61
63
64
65
68
69
71

36
—
.39

74
77
—

.

~W~]
———i
_Ei_J
JB2_
J33_
_B4_
JB5_
lBg_.

BY EOOMOIiiflC
Employment and Unemployment
Production and Income
Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Fixed Capita! Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit

DGFFUSIOW
AWOKATES OF CHANGE
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
Rates of Change .




The Secretary of Commerce has determined
that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business
required by law of this Department.




Vl
A2
A3
A4
A5_
A6
A7_
A8

PRODUCT
Chart
GNP and Personal Income . . . .
...............................
40
Personal Consumption Expenditures
....................
. . . . . . 41
Gross Private Domestic Investment
............................
42
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
...................
43
Foreign Trade
.............
. ____ .
..........................
44
National Income and Its Components ..... . ......... .
..........
45
Saving
..............
. . ....... . ...... . .
....................
46
Shares of GNP and National Income . .
.........................
47

Table
80
80
81
81
82
82
82
83

48
49

84
87

51

89

52
53

90
90

......

56
57

92
93

Industrial Production
.......
...............
.
................
Consumer Prices
............................
. ........ . . . . .
Stock Prices
............
. ...... .
...................
. ......

58
59
59

94
95
96

Price Movements
.........
.
Wages and Productivity
.........

................................
............
.
................

EMPLOYMENT, •
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components .

D2

Receipts and Expenditures ....... . . ....... . . .
Defense Indicators
............................

.............

.

.....

........ .
.......
.
............

U.S.
Merchandise Trade
.............
Goods and Services Movements

.

...........................
........................
„

III APPENDIXES
Cyclical Indicators: New Composite Index Components
Current Adjustment Factors (August 1989 issue)
Historical Data for Selected Series
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (July 1989 issue)
Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators
Supplemental Data and Analyses
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series

97
98

104
105
108
112

Readers are invited to submit comments and
suggestions concerning this publication. Address
them to Editor, Business Conditions Digest,
Business Outlook Division (BE-52), Bureau of
Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce,
Washington, DC 20230.

NEW FEATURES
AND

FOR THIS ISSUE

Weekly Updates
BCD data now.are updated weekly on the Commerce
Department's Economic Bulletin Board (EBB), The last
2 calendar years of data for about 360 BCD series are
available in the 2YRDATA.BCD file. The file usually is
updated in the afternoon of the first working day of
each week* You must have an EBB account to download the
file. For information about the EBB, call 202-377-1986.

Changes in this

are as follows:

1. Historical data for series 10., 20, 24, 27, 61,'100,
200, 345, 346, 358, 370, 723, 961, 963, and 970 are shown in
appendix C (pages 98-103).
2. Specific peak and trough dates for the composite
indexes and their components are shown in appendix F (page
104).
The January issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled
for release on February 6 0
.
• .
iii




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for 1,900 time series on practically all aspects of the economy. So if you need to know about the state of the Nation's economy,
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2/88

COMPOSITE INDEXES-OF LEADING, COINCIDENT, AND LAGGING
INDICATORS: NOVEMBER 1989

The composite index of leading indicators increased 0.1 percent in November to 144,7
(1982=100), according to preliminary estimates released December 29 by the Commerce
Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis,
On the basis of revised estimates, the index decreased 0,3 percent in October and
increased 0.1 percent in September. A- month ago, the Bureau reported estimates that
showed the index decreased 0,4 percent in October and increased 0,3 percent in
September, Average workweek was the major contributor to the October and September
revisions.
Five of 11 indicators contributed to the November increase in the index. They were,
ordered from the largest positive contributor to the smallest: manufacturers' new
orders for consumer goods arid materials in 1982 dollars, average weekly initial claims
for State unemployment insurance, contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982
dollars, money supply in 1982 dollars, and change in manufacturers' unfilled orders in
1982 dollars.
Six of 11 indicators made negative contributions. They were, ordered from the
largest negative contributor to the smallest: change in sensitive materials prices,
stock prices, index of consumer expectations, average workweek, building permits, and
vendor performance (slower deliveries diffusion index).
The composite index of coincident indicators, a monthly approximation of aggregate
economic activity, increased 0,4 percent in November to 133,4 (1982=100), The index
decreased 0,4 percent in October and 0,3 percent in September,
The composite index of lagging indicators increased 0,4 percent in November to 120*8
(1982=100), The index increased 0,3 percent in October and decreased 0,2 percent in
September,
The leading index is designed to predict monthly movements in aggregate economic
activity, which is approximated by the coincident index. The lagging index is expected
to move, after a time lag, in the same direction as the coincident index and thus to
confirm the movements in the coincident index.
More data on the composite indexes can be found on pages 10, 60, and 106 of this
issue of Business Conditions Digest,

Next release date: January 31 for the December composite indexes,

A recorded telephone message on (202) 898-2450 provides information on the composite
indexes and their components immediately upon their release.
This and other news releases are available electronically at the time of public
release through the Commerce Department's Economic Bulletin Board at a nominal charge
to users. For information, call (202) 377-19860




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BBC

adjustment is occasionally required for holidays
with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional
adjustment is sometimes necessary for series
which contain considerable variation due to the
number of working or trading days in each month.
As used in this report, the term "seasonal
adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday
adjustments where they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in
seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these
are the official figures released by the source
agencies. However, for the special purposes of this
report, a number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a
seasonally adjusted basis.

This report is organized into two major parts.
Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time
series which have been found to conform well to
broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of
economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are
individual indicators, the rest are related analytical
measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes,
and rates of change. Part II, Other Important
Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which
are valuable to business analysts and forecasters
but which do not conform well enough to business
cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a
few exceptions: Four series which are included in
part I are also shown in part II to complete the
systematic presentation of certain sets of data, . M C D Moving-;Averages
such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest
Month-to-month changes in a series are often
section of part II consists of quarterly series from
dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for
the national income and product accounts; other
cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the approsections relate to prices, labor force, government
priate span over which to observe cyclical
and defense-related activities, and international
movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.)
transactions and comparisons.
It is the smallest span of. months for which the
The two parts are further divided into sections
average change in the cyclical factor is greater than
(see table of contents), and each of these sections
that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a
is described briefly in this introduction. Data are
series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1
shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts
for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic.
begin with 1962, but those for the composite
MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of
indexes and their components (part I, section A)
the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the
begin with 1952, and a few charts use a two-panel
same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a
format which covers only the period since 1977.
5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5
Except for section F in part. II, charts contain
will show its cyclical movements about as clearly
shading which indicates periods of recession in
as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an
general business activity. The tables contain data
MCD of 1.
for only the last few years. The historical data for
The charts in this report generally include
the various time series are contained in the 1984
centered MCD moving averages for those series
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally
In addition to the charts and tables described
adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their
above, each issue contains a summary table which
variation about the moving averages and to provide
shows the current behavior of many of the series.
observations for the most recent months.
Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors,
measures of variability, specific cycle turning
Reference Turning Dates
dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other
information of analytical interest. An index appears
The historical business cycle turning dates used
at the back of each issue. It should be noted that
in this report are those designated by the National
the series numbers used are for identification
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They
purposes only and do not reflect precise
mark the approximate dates when, according to
relationships or order. However, all series
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its
considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
the range 1 to 199.
practice, neither new reference turning dates nor
the shading for recessions will be entered on the
charts until after both the new reference peak and
Seasonal Adjustments
the new reference trough bounding the shaded area
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations have been designated.
are often necessary to bring out the underlying
The historical reference turning dates are subject
trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for
to occasional reviews by NBER and may be changed
the effects of repetitive intrayear variations
as a result of revisions in important economic
resulting primarily from normal differences in
time series. The dates shown in this publication
weather conditions and from various institutional
for the 1948-70 time period are those determined
arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays
by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has designated
turning points for recessions in 1973-75, 1980, and
are usually accounted for by the seasonal
adjustment process; however, a separate holiday
1981-82.




Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Business cycles have been defined as sequences
of expansion and contraction in various economic
processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment,
income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive,
business cycles of historical experience have been
definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in
duration and intensity, reflecting changes in
economic systems, conditions, policies, and
outside disturbances.
One of the techniques developed in business
cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is
the cyclical indicators approach. This approach
identifies certain economic time series as tending
to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad
movements in aggregate economic activity. Such
indicators have been selected and analyzed by
NBER in a series of studies published between
1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new
comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was
carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research
staff. The present format and content of part I of
BCD are based on the results of that study.
Section A. Composite Indexes and
Their Components
All cyclical indicators have been evaluated according to six major characteristics: Economic
significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of
timing at business cycle peaks and troughs,
c o n f o r m i t y to business e x p a n s i o n s and
contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability
(currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme
was developed and used to assess each series by all
of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and
November 1975 issues of BCD.) The resulting
scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series
during the period 1947-70. This analysis produced
a new list of indicators classified by economic
process and typical timing at business cycle peaks
and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below
relating to section B.)
This information, particularly the scores relating
to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the
selection of series to be included in the composite
indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring
series from many different economic-process
groups and combine those with similar timing
behavior, using their overall performance scores as
weights. Because they use series of historically
tested usefulness and given timing characteristics
(for example, leading at both peaks and troughs),
with diversified economic coverage and a minimum
of duplication, composite indexes give more
reliable signals over time than do any of the
individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the

1

of
A.

by Economic Process and

at
x.
Economic
\Process
Cyclical \.
Timing
^v

LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(61 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT (C)
INDICATORS
(24 series)

1.
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)

II.
PRODUCTION
AND INCOME
(10 series)

ill.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE, ORDERS,
AND DELIVERIES
(13 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments(3 series)
jot) vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive ;
employment
(1 .series) ,
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series) ' i

Capacity utilization
(2 series)

Orders and deliveries
(6 series)
Consumption and
trade (2 series)

Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)

Comprehensive
output and income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(4 series)

Consumption and
trade, (4 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(19 series)

Comprehensive
unemployment
(2 series)

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED (U)
(8 series)

Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)

Economic
\. Process
N.

Cyclical \v
Timing
x.

LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(47 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT (C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(41 series)

Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business investment
commitments '
(5 series) - Residential
construction • .
, (3 series) '
,

V.
INVENTORIES
AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(18 series)

VII.
MONEY AND
CREDIT
(28 series)

Inventory .
investment •
(4 series)
Inventories on
.hand and on
order
(1 series)

Stock prices
(1 series)
Sensitive commodity '
prices (2 series)
Profits and profit
margins (7 series)
Cash flows (2 series)

Money (5 series)
Credit flows
(5 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(2 series)
Interest rates
(1 series)

Business investment
commitments
(1 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(8 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(1 series)

Velocity of money
(2 series)
Interest rates
(2 series)

Inventories on
. hand and on
order
(4 series)

Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)

interest rates
(4 series)
Outstanding debt
{4 series)

Sensitive commodity
prices (1 series)
Profits and profit
margins (1 series)

interest rates
(1 series)

Consumption and
trade (1 series)

Business investment
commitments
(1 series)

II.

111.

PRODUCTION
AND INCOME
(10 series)

CONSUMPTION,
TRADE, ORDERS,
AND DELIVERIES
(13 series)

IV.
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(19 series)

V.
INVENTORIES
AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

Vi.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(18 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
(1 series)

industrial
production

Orders and deliveries
(5 series)
Consumption and
trade (4 series)

Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business investment
commitments
(4 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

Inventory
investment
(4 series)

Stock prices
(1 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (3 series)
Profits and profit
margins (6 series)
Cash flows (2 series)

Money (4 series)
Credit flows
(5 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(4 series)

Comprehensive
output and income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(3 series)
Capacity utilization
(2 series)

Consumption and
trade (3 series)

Business investment
commitments
(I series)

Profits and profit
.margins (2 series)

Money (1 series)
Velocity of money
(1 series)

Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)

Velocity of money
(1 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
interest rates
(8 series)
Outstanding debt
(4 series)

B* Timing at
N.

IV.
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(19 series)

Cycle Troughs
1.
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)

)ob vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive .
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(5 series)

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED (U)
(1 series)




(1 series)

Orders and deliveries
(1 series)

Business investment
commitments
(2 series)
. Business investment
expenditures
(7 series)

inventories on
hand and on
order
(5 series)

V».

MONEY AND
CREDIT
(28 series)

Bank reserves
(1 series)

independent measurement error and other "noise"
in the included series are smoothed out in the
index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly
series that are acceptable in terms of relatively
prompt availability and reasonable accuracy.
The main composite indexes are distinguished by
their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of
leading indicators, series which historically reached
their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the
corresponding business cycle turns. There is an
index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting
of series which historically reached their turning
points at about the same time as the general
economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which
includes series that typically reached their peaks
and troughs later than the corresponding business
cycle turns.
The leading index contains series with long as
well as short leads, but each series leads on the
average over time and shows a frequency of leads
at the individual turns exceeding that attributable
to chance, given the historical distribution of
cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to
the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948,
leads were generally more frequent and longer at
peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags
were generally more frequent and longer at troughs
than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and
classifying the indicators takes into account these
well-established d i f f e r e n c e s in timing.
Consequently, rough coincidences include short
leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact
coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is
from -3 through +1 at peaks and from -1 through
+3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and
plus denotes lags in months.)

indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a
series known to have a useful pattern of early
cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of
the composite indexes show the length, in months,
of leads (-) and lags (+) at each of the reference
turning dates covered.
The next set of data consists of series included
in the principal composite indexes. These are the
11 components of the leading index, the 4
components of the coincident index, and the 6
components of the lagging index. Following the title
of each series, its typical timing is identified by
three letter symbols in a small box. The first of
these letters refers to the timing of the given
indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its
timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to
its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs
combined. "L" denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a
tendency to roughly coincide with the business
cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency
to lag. Since these series have been selected for the
consistency of their timing at peaks and troughs,
all but one component of the leading index are
denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident
index"C,C,C," and all components of the lagging
index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that
these classifications are based on limited evidence,
namely the performance of the indicators during
the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which
included five peaks and five troughs. While the
timing classifications are expected to agree with
the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will
not necessarily hold invariably in every instance.
The timing of the series in the period since 1970
can be determined by inspection of the charts,
where the recessions of 1973-75, 1980, and
1981-82 are shaded according to the dates of
the NBER reference cycle chronology.

August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business
cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58,
February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation
distinguishes seven major economic processes and
four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells
identify subgroups of the given economic process
with the given timing characteristic. The number of
series in each such group is given in parentheses
following the title. Complete information on how
individual indicators are classified by timing at
peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected
measures and scores, is provided in the 1984
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
Section C, Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change

Many series in this report are aggregates
compiled from numerous components. How the
individual components of an aggregate move over a
given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index
which indicates the percentage of components that
are rising (with half of the unchanged components
considered rising). Cyclical changes in these
diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the
corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes
are highly erratic, they are computed from changes
measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter)
spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans.
Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes
are shown for the component series included in
each of the three composite indexes and for the
components of some of the aggregate series shown
in section B.
Diffusion measures can be derived not only from
For purposes of constructing a composite index,
actual data but also from surveys of anticipations
each component series is standardized: The monthor intentions. Indexes based on responses of
to-month percent changes in a given series are
business executives about their plans and
divided by the long-run average (without regard to Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process expectations for several operating variables are
sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile
presented, along with the corresponding indexes
series are prevented from dominating the index.
This section covers 112 individual time series, based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion
The coincident index is calculated so that its long- including the 21 indicators used in the series.
term trend (since 1948) equals the average of the construction of the composite indexes. The peak
This section also records rates of change for the
trends of its four components. This trend, which is and trough timing classifications are shown on the three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and
similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be charts in the same manner as described above, but lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate
viewed as a linear approximation to the secular this section includes series with different timing at economic activity: GNP in constant dollars
movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the (quarterly), industrial production, employee hours
economic activity. The indexes of leading and lag- timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified in nonagricultural establishments, and personal
ging indicators have been adjusted so that both as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of
their trends and their average month-to-month measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for
percent changes (without regard to sign) are ap- are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at 1-quarter spans.
proximately equal to those of the coincident index. turning points of the given type. Eight series are
Although movements in diffusion indexes and in
(For a more detailed description of the method of unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 18 rates of change for the same aggregates are
constructing the composite indexes, see the 1984 series at all turns (of the 18, 14 have definite but generally positively correlated, these two measures
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.)
different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series present information about two related but distinct
In addition to these principal composite indexes, that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes
measure the prevailing direction or scope of
differentiated according to cyclical timing, there is included in the list of cyclical indicators.
are other indexes based on leading indicators that
The classification scheme which groups the change, while rates of change measure the degree
have been grouped by economic process. Taken indicators of this section by economic process and as well, as the overall direction. As is the case for
together, these additional indexes include many cyclical timing is summarized in the two diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates
component series of the overall leading index, plus tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is of change tend to lead those of the corresponding
a few related series. Also shown in this section is based on the observed behavior of the series at five indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead
the ratio of the index of roughly coincident business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53, at the business cycle turns as well.




Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and
capital goods purchased by private business and Unemployment
nonprofit institutions and the value of the change
This section contains measures of the civilian
This part is divided into six sections which cover in the physical volume of inventories held by labor force and its major components: Total
a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series private business. The former include all private numbers of employed and unemployed persons.
measuring various aspects of economic activity. purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for The number of unemployed is subdivided into
Some of these series are very comprehensive, tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used selected categories defined by sex, age, and class
pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others goods are also included.
Government purchases of goods and services of worker. Also included are data on participation
have to do with particular sectors or markets, and
(A4) is the compensation of government employees rates for a few principal segments of the labor
still others relate to U.S. international transactions
force.
or to selected foreign countries. The represented and purchases from business and from abroad. It
excludes transfer payments, interest paid by
variables include incomes, outputs, and
Section D. Government Activities
expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity; government, and subsidies. It includes gross
Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surlabor r e s o u r c e s ; g o v e r n m e n t r e c e i p t s , investment by government enterprises but excludes
expenditures, and defense-related activities; ex- their current outlays. It includes net purchases of plus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels:
ports and imports; and selected indicators for a few used goods and excludes sales and purchases of (1) Federal Government and (2) State and local
land and financial assets.
government. Also shown is a selection of series
key foreign countries.
Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports from the discontinued Defense Indicators.
less imports of goods and services. Exports are part These series measure defense activities which
Section A. National Income and Product
of the national production; imports are not, but are influence short-term changes in the national
The national income and product accounts, included in the components of GNP and are
economy. Included are series relating to
compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and therefore deducted. More detail on U.S.
obligations, contracts, orders, production,
final expenditures for the personal, business, international transactions is provided in section E.
shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment.
foreign, and government sectors of the economy.
National income (A6) is the incomes that These series are grouped according to the time at
Section Al shows the gross national product, originate in the production of goods and services
which the activities they measure occur in the
final sales, and personal and disposable personal attributable to labor and property supplied by
defense order-production-delivery process. Series
income. The four major components of the gross residents of the United States. Thus, it measures
measuring activities which usually precede pron a t i o n a l p r o d u c t — p e r s o n a l c o n s u m p t i o n the factor costs of the goods and services production, such as contract awards and new orders,
expenditures, gross private domestic investment, duced. It consists of the compensation of
are classified as "advance measures of defense
government purchases of goods and services, and employees, proprietors' income, rental income of
activity." Series measuring activities which tend to
net exports of goods and services—are presented in persons, corporate profits, and net interest.
coincide with production, such as employment, and
sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in
Saving (A7) is the difference between income activities which usually follow production, such as
section A are presented in current as well as and expenditures during an accounting period.
shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final
constant dollars. There are also a few per capita Total gross saving includes personal saving,
measures of defense activity."
series. The national income and product accounts, business saving (mainly undistributed corporate
briefly defined below, are described more fully in profits and capital consumption allowances), and Section E. U.S. International Transactions
the Survey of Current Business, Part I, government surplus or deficit.
January 1976.
This group includes monthly series on exports
Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The
Gross national product (GNP) is the market m a j o r e x p e n d i t u r e c o m p o n e n t s o f G N P (excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a
value of final goods and services produced by the (consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as few selected components of these aggregates. Also
labor and property supplied by residents of the percentages of GNP, and the major income shown are the balances between receipts and
United States, before deduction of allowances for components of national income (compensation of expenditures for goods and services, merchandise,
the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as and investment income.
most comprehensive measure of aggregate percentages of national income.
Section F. International Comparisons
economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in
business inventories.
Personal income is the income received by
This section is designed to facilitate a quick
persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
review of basic economic conditions in six of the
businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust
nations with which we have important trade
funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from
The important data on price movements include relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has
all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary the monthly consumer and producer price indexes been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial
disbursements, other labor income, proprietors' and their major components. Based largely on production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
income, rental income of persons, dividends, these series are the quarterly price indexes from Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Gerpersonal interest income, and transfer payments, the national income and product accounts, notably many, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corless personal contributions for social insurance.
the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights responding U.S. series. Also included is an inDisposable personal income is the personal reflecting the changing proportions of different dustrial production index for the European
income available for spending or saving. It consists expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixed- countries in the Organization for Economic
of personal income less personal taxes and nontax weighted price index for the gross business prod- Cooperation and Development (OECD). The inpayments to government.
uct. Data on both levels and percent changes are dustrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the
Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is presented for the period since 1977.
The group of series on wages and productivity economies covered. Changes in consumer price ingoods and services purchased by individuals,
operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and consists of data on average hourly earnings and dexes (plotted for the period since 1977) provide
the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings, average hourly compensation (including earnings important measures of the rates of inflation in the
and financial services received in kind by in- and other benefits) in current and constant dollars, major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also
dividuals. Net purchases of used goods are also in- output per hour of work in the business sector, and shown beginning in 1977) tend to be significant as
rates of change for most of these measures.
leading indicators.
cluded.

Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT
MEASURES




Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded
area) as designated by NBER.

Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER.

Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Data may be actual
monthly figures or moving
averages.)

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
plotted. ("9". = September)

Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where
a moving average is plotted.
Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data.
Parallel lines indicates a break
in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.).
Solid line indicates monthly
data over 6- or 9-month
spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Broken line with plotting
points indicates
quarterly
data over 1-quarter spans.
Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over
various spans.
Diffusion indexes and
of change are centered within
the spans they cover.
Solid Isne indicates percent
changes over 3- or 6-month
spans.

Dotted line indicates anticipated data.
Roman
number
indicates
latest quarter for which data
are plotted. ("IV" = fourth
quarter)
Various scales are used to
highlight the patterns of the
individual series. "Scale A"
is an arithmetic scale, "scale
L-1" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles
in that distance, etc.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
used in computing the indexes.
Roman
number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are used in computing the indexes.
Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over
various spans.
Arabic number indicates latest
month used in computing
the changes.

Broken Sine indicates percent
changes over 1-month spans.

Broken line with plotting
points
indicates
percent
changes over 1-quarter spans.

Solid line with plotting points
indicates percent changes over
3 - o r 4-quarter spans.

Roman
number
indicates
latest quarter used in computing the changes.

1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at
the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically
according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the
series titles, or-




2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of
the report where series are listed numerically according to
series numbers within each of the report's sections.

and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
1

1. Summary of Recent

Basic data2

Series number

Percent change

Unit

Series title and timing classification1

of

Annual average
1987

1988

IstQ
1989

2dQ
1989

3dQ
1989

Sept.
1989

Nov.
1989

Oct.
1989

Sept.
to
Oct.
1989

Oct.
to
Nov.
1989

IstQ
to.
2dQ
1989

144.7
133.4
120.8
110.4

-0.3
-0.4
0.3
-0.7

0.1
0.4
0.4
-0.1

-0.5
0.6
0.7
-0.2

-0.1
0.5
0.
0.5

910
920
930
940

NA
NA
NA
NA

NA
NA
NA
NA

NA
NA
NA
NA

NA
NA
NA
NA

914
915
916
917

2dQ
to
3dQ
1989

I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Al. Composite Indexes
910
920
930
940.

....

1982 = 100
L L,L
do
C,C,C....
do
Lg Lg Lg
do
L,L,L...

140.1
122.4
111.3
110.0

142.8
128.2
114.9
111.6

L,L,L... 1967=100
do
L|L,L ..
.....do
L,L,L...
do
L.L.L....

Eleven leading indicators
Four roughly coincident indicators
.
Seven lagging indicators
Ratio, coincident index to lagging index

NA
106.3
121.7
145.8

NA
105.8
NA
NA

3.7
320

L,Lg,U.... Ratio
L,Lg,U.... 1967 = 100
U,C,C.... A.r.f bil. hrs
U,C,C.... Millions
do
C,C,C....
L,C,U.... Thousands

Leading Indicator Subgroups:
914. Capital investment commitments
915 Inventory investment and purchasing
916 Profitability
917. Money and financial flows

144.5
132,9
120.3
110.5

144.7
132.7
120.0
110.5

144.6
133.3
120.0
111. 1

145.0
133.5
119,9
111.3

NA
NA
NA
NA

NA
NA
NA
NA

NA
NA
NA
NA

NA
NA
NA
NA

NA
NA
NA
NA

NA
NA
NA
NA

41.1
3.9
305

41.1
3.9
306

41.1
3.8
313

41.0
3.8
325

41.0
3.8
320

40.8
3,7
357

40.7
3.7
343

0.615
153

0.701
158

0.718
154

0.699
153

0.676
148

0.660
146

0,685
151

0.641
145

189.99
109.23
102.20
24,708

196.44
111.80
105.58
25,249

200.32
113.66
107.68
25,634

201.44
114.18
108.34
25,664

202.31
114.24
108.92
25 , 6 5 9

202.73
114.20
109.10
25,614

60.77

61.54

62.19

62.26

62.23

62.16

62.16

62.24

0.

0.08

0.07

7,425
6.2
2.4
14.5
1.7

6,701
5.5
2.1
13.5
1.3

6,391
5.2
2.1
12.4
1.1

6,501
5.3
2. 1
11.9
1.1

6,501
5.2
2.1
11.6
1.1

6,584
5.3
2.1
11.4
1.1

6,561
5.3
2.2
11.8
1. 1

6,729
5.4
2.2
11.7
1.2

0.3
0.
-0.1
-3.5
0.

-2.6
-0.1
0.
0.8
-0.1

-1.7
-0.1
0.
4.0
0.

0.
0.1
0.
2.5
0.

37
43
45
91
44

3427.1 3442.8

0.2

0.5

0.6
0.6

0.7
0.7

50
52

2907.9 2928.3 2930.2 2937.4 2949.7

0,6

0.7

51

0.7

53

0.3
0.1
0.7
0.4

47
73
74
49

145.4
131.9
119.2
110,7

B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
Bl. Employment and Unemployment
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
*1 Average weekly hours mfg
21. Average weekly overtime hours, mfg.3
*5. Average weekly initial claims (inverted4)

... . L,L,L... Hours
do
L,C,L...
L,C,L... Thousands

Job Vacancies:
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment3
46. Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
•*41 Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
40. Employees in goods-producing industries
90. Ratio, civilian employment to population
of working age3
Comprehensive Unemployment:
37. Number of persons unemployed (inverted4)
43. Unemployment rate (inverted4)3
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate (inv.4)3
*91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted4)
44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.4)3

U,Lg,U.... Percent.

L,Lg,U....
L,Lg,U....
L,Lg,U....
Lg,Lg,Lg....
Lg,Lg,Lg....

Thousands
Percent

do
Weeks
Percent

41.0

203.42 204.90
114.33 114.64
109.19 109.40
2 5 , 6 0 7 25 , 6 0 4

-0,5
-0.1
-11.6

-0.2
0.
3.9

0.
-0.1
-2,3

-0.2
0.
-3,8

0.025 -0.044 -0.019 -0.023
-3.3
3.4
-4.0
-0.6

0.3
0.1
0.1
0.

0.7
0.3
0.2
0.

0.6
0.5
0.6
0.1

0.4
0.1
0.5
0.

-0.03

1
21
5

60
46

48
42
41
40
90

62. Production and Income
Comprehensive Output and Income:
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars
52 Personal income in 1982 dollars
*5i. Personal income less transfer payments
in 1982 dollars
53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, mfg.,
and construction
...
.. .

C.C.C.... A.r., bil. dol
do
C CC
C,C,C....

do

C,C,C....

do

Industrial Production:
*47 Industrial production
73 Industrial production durable mfrs
74 Industrial production nondurable mfrs
49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars

C,C,C.... 1977 = 100
do
C CC
do..
C L,L
C.C.C.... A.r., bil. dol

Capacity Utilization:
82 Capacity utilization rate mfg3
84 Capacity utilization rate, materials3

Percent
L CU
do
L,C,U....

3 8 5 3 . 7 4 0 2 4 . 4 4106.8 4132.5 4162.9
3153.7 3264.5 3371.4 3 3 9 0 . 9 3416.2 3420.4
2696.0 2794.8

2890.2

0.2

0.4

560.8

568.4

565.0

568.7

569.6

572.5

567.9

0.5

-0,8

137.2
129.8
133.1
141.9
136.8
143.9
1 6 6 9 . 0 177 1.6

140.7
146.0
148.4
1823.2

141.8
147.1
149.9
1843.9

142.2
147.2
151.0
1851.3

142. 1
146.9
151.2

141.3
144.3
152.0

141.5
145.1
151.7

-0.6
-1.8
0,5

0.1
0.6
-0.2

84.4
83.9

84.0
83.7

82.7
82.9

-0,9
-0.3

-0.1
-0.3

0.
-0.2

-0.4
-0.2

82
84

-0.7
-0.6

5.1
5.0

0.
-0.5

-1.1
-1.6

6
7

544.5

81.0
80.5

83.6
83.7

84.4
84.1

83.7
83,5

82.8
83.2

-0.6

0.8
0.8
1.0
1. 1

B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Orders and Deliveries:
6 Mfrs ' new orders durable goods
7. Mfrs' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods
*8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods
and materials
25. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods3
96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods5
*32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries3
Consumption and Trade:
56 Manufacturing and trade sales
*57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars
75. Industrial production, consumer goods
54 Sales of retail stores
59 Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles
58. Index of consumer sentiment 0

Bil dol .
L,L L
do
L,L,L...

107.72
98.28

119.51 1 2 5 . 9 9
104.76 107.38

126.01 124.68 125.23
106.79 105.09 105.06

84.57
87.20
do
88.70
88.11
ILL
2.50
3.93
3.34
do
4.34
L,L,L...
L,Lg,U.... Bil. dol., EOP ... 4 0 0 . 7 2 4 4 7 . 8 7 4 6 0 . 9 0 4 7 0 . 9 2
57.4
57.7
50.0
52.8
L,L,L... Percent

C,C,C....
C.C.C....
C,L,C....
C,L,U
U,L,U....
L,C,C....
L,L,L...

449.21
434.31
127.8
1977=100
126.78
Bil dol .
do
114.88
A.r.,bil.dol
131.7
IQ 1966= 100.
90.6

484.86
450.11
133.9
135.76
119.13
144.2
93.7

87.12
1.39
475.09
45.2

124.35 130.68
104.41 1 0 9 . 6 3

87.58
89.54
87.85
2.44
6,98
0.83
475.09 477.53 484.51
42.7
43.8
42.5

-0.3
1.61
0.5
-1.1

2.2
4.54
1.5
-0.2

-0.7
-1.00
2.2
-2.8

-1.1
-1.95
0.9
-4.8

8
25
96
32

-0.7
-1.1
0.4
-1.3
-1.7

NA
NA
-0.2
0.8
0.5

-2.0

-3.2

1.6
0.6
0.7
1.8
0.4
1,3
-5.2

0.6
0.6
-0.4
1.7
1.8
4.4
1.8

56
57
75
54
59
55
58

-0,8
-3.8

-1.4
-2.9

12
13

508.92 517.18
454.89 457.49
138.5
139.5
1 3 9 . 6 6 142.15
120.26 120.71
142.7
144.5
95.9
90.9

520.06 522.76
460.33 462.70
139.0
138.9
144.57 145.29
122.86 123.55
150.9
92.5
95.8

519.23
457.69
139.5
143.36
121.39
93,9

90.9

121.2
124.1
125.5
126.5
57,113 5 6 , 9 7 8 59,119 5 6 , 8 5 6

123.7
122.8
55,207 54,502

123.4
NA.

123.6
NA

0.5
NA

0.2
NA

0.8

5.3

1.1

-1.7

10

Bil. dol

do

NA
NA
139.2
144.56
121.99

B4. Fixed Capital Investment
Formation of Business Enterprises:
12 Net business formation ...
13. New business incorporations

...

.

Business Investment Commitments:
10 Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
*20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1982 dollars
24. Mfrs.' new orders, nondefense capital goods
27. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense
capital goods




L,LL
1967 — 100
L,L,L... Number

L,L L

Bil dol

34.67

39.96

43.05

43.51

42.78

40.68

40.99

43.18

L,L,L...
L,L,L...

do
do

39.51
29.66

45.05
35.01

47.19
38.56

47.72
38.94

47.78
37.97

46,61
35.34

45.94
35,99

47.80
38.99

-1.4
1.8

4.0
8.3

1.1
1.0

0.1
-2o5

20
24

L,L,L...

do

35.15

40.89

43.52

44.00

43 .89

42.3]

41.91

44.43

-0.9

A .n

1.1

-0.7

97

of

for Principal Indicators—
Basic data2

Series title and timing classification

1

of

Annual average

measure
1987

Percen change

]

1988

IstQ
1989

2dQ
1989

3dQ
1989

Sept.
1989

Sept.
to
Oct.
1989

Nov.
1989

Oct.
1989

Oct.
to
Nov.
1989

-12.6

-14,3

IstQ
to
2dQ
1989

2dQ
to
3dQ
1989

Series number

1

Table 1.

1. CYCLICAL tiDICATORS-Con.
B4. Fixed Capital investment— Con.
Business Investment Commitments— Con.:
9. Construction contracts awarded, for commercial and
industrial buildings, floor space
L,C,U.... Mil. sq. ft
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, mfg
U,Lg,U.... Bil. dol
5
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.
C,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ...
Business Investment Expenditures:
61. Expenditures for new plant and equipment
69. Mfrs.' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
76. Industrial production, business equipment
86. Nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars

80,65
75.76
73.62
39,30
29.79
50,01
7 8 . 0 6 1 0 0 , 2 0 114.55

74.43
NA
NA

76.73
NA
NA

74,73

C,Lg,Lg.... A.r., bil.dol

389,67 430,76 459.47 470.86 484.93

do
C,Lg,Lg....
C,Lg,U.... 1977 = 100
C,Lg,C.... A.r., bil. dol

404,67 453,10 478,60 488.30 499.03 504.04 486,27
144,5
157,6
168.8
168.7
164.1
165,0
169.0
493,8
455,5
501,0
511.4
517.9

64.06

Residential Construction Commitments and Investment:
28. New private housing units started
:
*29. Building permits, new private housing units
89. Residential fixed investment in 1982 dollars

L,L,L... A.r., thousands ..
L,L,L.... 1967 = 100
L,L,L... A.r., bil.dol

1,620
122.9
194.8

1,488
116.0
194,1

1,517
109,5
195.6

1,352
106.0
189.3

1,338
104.4
184,8

19.1

NA
166.2

-3.5
-2,7

1,361
107.0

13.0
2.8

NA
1,3

-4.7
-1.0

21.9

1,264
105.2

1,428
108,1

1.1
NA
NA

3,1
NA
NA

9
11
97

2.5

85 .52

3,0

61

2.0
2.3
2.1

2.2
0.1
1,3

69
76
86

-10.9
-3.2
-3,2

-1,0
-1,5
-2,4

28
29
89

85. Inventories and Inventory Investment
Inventory Investment:
30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars3
36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on
order in 1982 dollars (smoothed6)3
31 Change in mfg and trade inventories3
38. Change in mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies
on hand and on order3
Inventories on Hand and on Order:
71. Mfg. and trade inventories5
70. Mfg. and trade inventories in 1982 dollars5
65 Mfrs ' inventories finished goods5
*77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in
1982 dollars3
78. Mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order 5

L,L,L....

do

23.7

27 .9

24,5

L,L,L...
L LL

do
do

25,10
46,9

20.34
53.0

22,31
47,1

-2.35
61.2

7.73
39.1

1.79

1.22

-0.25

0.61

-5,4

NA - 2 4 . 6 6
NA
14.1

2,8

30

10,08
-22,1

36
31

0,86

38

1,3
0.4
2.0

71
70
65

-5,54
40.0

NA
NA

-8.11
37.6

0,74

NA

1.66

NA

Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ... 7 0 0 , 7 6 7 5 3 , 7 2 7 6 5 . 5 0 7 8 0 . 8 0 7 9 0 . 5 7 7 9 0 . 5 7 7 9 3 . 9 1
do
Lg,Lg,Lg....
664.72 687,97 690.50 694.54 697,01 697.01 698.65
Lg Lg Lg
do
1 0 6 , 8 2 1 1 3 , 9 3 115,36 117,85 120.17 120.17 1 2 0 , 0 3

NA
NA
NA

0.4
0.2
-0.1

NA
NA
NA

Lg Lg Lg

1.53

NA

0.02

NA

-0.01

0,01

77

281.29 282.03

NA

0.3

NA

-0.3

0.6

78

L,L,L.... Bil. dol

Ratio

1,48

1,50

1,50

1,52

1,51

1,52

L,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ... 2 5 5 , 1 1 2 7 6 . 5 6 2 8 0 , 2 2 2 7 9 , 4 8 2 8 1 . 2 9

2.57
2.4
-0.92

1.51

-1.47

2.0
0.6
2.2

B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
98. Change in producer prices, sensitive materials3
23. Spot market prices, raw industrial materials©
*99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed7)

3

L,L,L.... Percent
U,L,L.... 1967 = 100
L,L,L.... Percent

1,36
274,5
1,09

0.31
303,3
0,45

0,86
329,5
0.91

0,07
331.5
0,49

-0.26
326.2
-0.37

0.29
327 .0
-0.48

0,64
325.7
-0.46

-1.55
314.2
-0.66

0.35
-0.4
0.02

-2,19
-3.5
-0.20

-0.79
0.6
-0.42

-2.1

7,8

-0,33
-1,6
-0,86

98
23
99

Stock Prices:
*19 Stock prices, 500 common stocks @

L,L L .. 1941-43=10... 2 8 6 , 8 3 2 6 5 . 7 9 2 9 0 . 7 1 3 1 3 . 3 0 3 4 1 . 9 6

Profits and Profit Margins:
16 Corporate profits after tax
18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars
79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj
80
do
in 1982 dollars.
15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, mfg.3
26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business

L,L L .. A.r., bil.dol
do
L,L,L...
do
L,C,L...
do
L CL .
L,L,L.... Cents
L,L,L... 1977 = 100

142,0
126,8
174,0
159,6
4.8
98,7

168,9
148,0
190,7
170,1
6,0
98,7

173,6
147.5
171,9
145,8
5,9
98,2

161.1
133.2
172,9
145.0
4.9
98.2

152.4
123,6
172,6
143.8
4,9
98.2

-7,2
-9.7
0.6
-0.5
-1.0
0,

-5,4
-7.2
-0.2
-0.8
0.
0.

16
18
79
80
15
26

Cash Flows:
34. Corporate net cash flow
35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars

L,L,L... A.r., bil.dol
do
L,L,L...

397,3
392,8

427,0
419,9

426,9
416.5

412.2
401,9

405,6
394,9

-3.4
-3.5

-1,6
-1.7

34
35

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share:
63. Unit labor cost, business sector
Lg,Lg,Lg....
68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product,
nonfinancial corporations
Lg Lg Lg
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.
a) Index
Lg,Lg,Lg....
*b) Percent change3 1
Lg,Lg,Lg....
64. Compensation of employees as percent of
national income3
Lg,Lg,Lg....

347.33 347,40 340.22

0.

9,1

19

1977=100

17 1,9

177,1

181,9

184,1

185,5

1.2

0.8

Dollars

0,730

0.744

0,768

0.778

0.783

1,3

0.6

68

1977 = 100

137,2
-0.9

138.3
1.5

139,6
1.6

139.2
1.7

140.2
1.5

-0,3
0.1

0.7
-0.2

62
62

73.4

73.2

73,2

73.4

74.0

0,2

0.6

64

A.r., percent
Percent

140,6
1.9

143.3
5.4

141.8
5.1

1.9
3.5

-1.0
-0.3

63

B7. ioney and Credit
Money:
85. Change in money supply Ml3
102 Change in money supply M23
104. Change in total liquid assets3
105. Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars
*106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars
Velocity of Money:
107. Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml3
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M23
Credit
33.
112
113.
111.
110.

Flows:
Net change in mortgage debt3
Net change in business loans3
Net change in consumer installment credit3
Change in business and consumer credit outstanding3
Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers

Credit Difficulties:
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inverted 4 ) 3 5




.. L,L,L....
do
L CU
do
do .. .
.. L,L,L...
.. L,L,L... Bil.dol
do
.. L,L,L...

C,C,C.... Ratio
do
C,Lg,C....

L,L,L... A.r., bil. dol
L LL
do
L,L,L....
do
L,L,L.... A.r., percent
L,L,L.... A.r., bil. dol

L,L,L.... Percent, EOP ...

0.30
0.41
-0.17
-0.68
0.10
0.10
0,29
0,45
0,62
0.24
0.39
0.37
604.4
632,7
622.7
631.6
2 4 3 0 . 0 2 4 5 3 , 8 2431.1 2400.3

6.078
1.319

6,289
1.350

6.499
1.406

6.707
1.429

0.84
0.48
0.47
0.62
0,65
0.73
0.58
0.46
0,25
603.2
604.6
606.9
2430.2 2442,6 2447.2

6.783
1.420

1.415

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
8,30
37.84
73,57
67,54
25,19 -26.64
35.67
NA
51,79
38.75
16.45
14.09
6.1
8,3
NA
7,8
-1.4
2.4
5 5 3 . 2 0 616.47 591.15 584,12 5 6 7 . 8 4

2.47

2.49

2,39

2,30

2,88

2.88

0.29
0.71
NA
605.8
2453.1

0.36
0,03
0.33
0.4
0,2

-0.55
0.06
NA
-0,2
0,2

-0.51
0,
-0,13
-2.9
-1.3

1.15
0.63
0.22
-0.2
1.2

85
102
104
105
106

0.208
0,076
0.023 -0,009

107
108

NA
NA
-6,03 -42,35
NA - 2 4 , 6 6
NA
-5.4
-1,2
-2.8

33
112
113
111
110

1.418

1.420

0.003

0,002

NA
-2.42
40.02
NA

NA
15,26
NA
NA

NA
24,22
23,57
NA

NA
17.68
NA
NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

0,09

-0.58

39

for Principal indicators—Continued
I

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current

Basic data2

Percent change

Annual average

of

1987

1988

Sept.
1989

3dQ
1989

2dQ
1989

IstQ
1989

Oct.
1989

Sept.
to
Oct.
1989

Nov.
1989

IstQ
to
2dQ
1989

Oct.
to
Nov.
1989

Series number

Series title and timing classification1

2dQ
to
3dQ
1989

1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B7. Money and Credit-Con.
Bank Reserves:
93 Free reserves (inverted 4 ) 3 ©
94. Borrowings from the Federal Reserve3 ©
Interest Rates:
119. Federal funds rate3 ©
114. Discount rate on new Treasury bills3©
116. Yield on new high-grade corporate bonds3©
115 Yield on long-term Treasury bonds3 ©
117. Yield on municipal bonds3 ©....
118. Secondary market yields, FHA mortgages3 ©
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans3 ©
*109. Average prime rate charged by banks3©
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment credit outstanding5
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
*101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in
1982 dollars
*95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to
personal income3

241 - 1 , 3 3 2
756
2,357

LUU.... Mil. dol
do
L,Lg,U....

. ..

6.66
5.83
9.69
8.63
7.64
10.16
8.09
8.20

L,Lg,Lg.... Percent
C,Lg,Lg....
do
do
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do
C Lg Lg.. .
do
U,Lg,Lg....
do...
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do
Lg,Lg,Lg....

7.57
6.67
9.96
8.98
7.68
10.49
9.18
9.32

-569
1,654

-929
. 1,833

242
687

245
693

465
555

596
349

-220
-138

-131
-206

9.44
8.53
10.12
9.19
7.46
10.91
10.97
10.98

9.73
8.44
9,72
8.84
7.25
10.50
11.89
11,36

9 .08
7,85
9.19
8.25
7.09
9.83
10.78
10.66

9.02
7.72
9,29
8,31
7.26
9.94

8.84
7.63
9.04
8.15
7.22
9.73

8.55
7.65
9.20
8.03
7.14
9.69

-0.18
-0.09
-0.25
-0.16
-0.04
-0.21

-0.29
0,02
0.16
-0.12
-0.08
-0.04

10.50

10.50

10.50

NA
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOF ... 6 0 7 . 7 2 6 5 9 . 5 1 6 9 1 . 1 6 7 0 0 . 8 5 7 0 4 . 3 7 7 0 4 . 3 7 7 0 7 . 7 1
364.07 3 9 0 . 3 2 418.54 4 3 5 . 2 9 445.51 446.49 446.28 447.56
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol

Lg Lg Lg.. .

.. ..do

3 7 7 . 2 8 3 8 5 . 8 8 3 9 6 .49 3 9 7 . 5 8 3 9 5 . 9 9 3 9 7 . 1 2

0.

0.

0.5
0.

NA
0.3

3 6 0 -1, 171
179 -1, 146

93
94

0.29
-0.09
-0.40
-0.35
-0.21
-0.41
0.92
0.38

-0.65
-0.59
-0.53
-0.59
-0.16
-0.67
-1.11
-0.70

119
114
116
115
117
118
67
109

1,4
4.0

0.5
2.3

66
72

-0.4

0.3

2e3

2.7

101

15.57

15.69

15.91

15.86

15.77

15.77

15.72

NA

-0.05

NA

-0.05

-0.09

95

117.4
113.6
0.4
113.5
102.8
102.6
93.7
101.5
111,7
103.6

121.3
118.3
0.3
118,2
106.9
106,3
96.0
107.1
114.3
106.2

124.5
121,7
0.5
122.8
110.9
110.1
102.3
111.3
117.3
110.4

125.9
123.7
0.5
124,8
112 .8
112.2
104.2
112.5
118.1
112.7

126.9
124.7
0.1
125.9
112.4
111.8
102.3
112.1
119.3
112.1

125 .0
0.2
126 .2
112.3
111.9
102.3
112.3
120.2
112.5

125.6
0.5
126 .7
112.7
112.4
102.3
112.3
119.8
113.2

125.9
0,4
127 .4
112.7
112.2
102.7
112.2
120.2
113.0

0.5
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.
0.
-0.3
0.6

0.2
-0.1
0.6
0.
-0.2
0.4
-0.1
0.3
-0.2

1.1
1.6
0.
1.6
1.7
K9
1.9
1.1
0.7
2.1

173.5

179.0

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

94.0
188.9
100.8
111.1
108.9

93.3
197.7
101.3
113.0
111.1

NA
204.6
101,7
113.8
111.6

NA
207.4
101.5
114.2
111.9

NA
209.9
102.1
114.7
112.6

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

0.
0.1
-0.3
-4.5
5.1
-0.5
-0.7

0.1
-0.3
1.0

354.19 364.95

Lg,Lg,Lg.... Percent

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
Bl. Price Movements
310
320.
320c
322
330
335
331
332.
333
334

1982=100
Implicit price deflator for gross national product
Consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) ©.... 1982-84=100.
Percent
Change in CPI-U (S/ A) 3
1982-84=100.
Consumer price index for all urban consumers food
Producer price index (PPI) all commodities ©
.. . 1982=100
do
PPI industrial commodities ©
.
do
PPI crude materials for further processing
do
PPI, intermediate materials, supplies, and components
do
PPI capital equipment
do
PPI finished consumer goods

0.8
0.8
-0.4
0.9
-0.4
-0.4
-1.8
-0.4
1.0
-0.5

310
320
320
322
330
335
331
332
333
334

NA

NA

340

NA
1.4
-0.2
0.4
0.3

NA
1.2
0.6
0.4
0.6

341
345
346
370
358

0.3
0.2
2.6
3.1
0.8
4.9
2.6

0.4
0.3
1.7
-1.0
5.2
1.3
0.9

0.2
0.2
0.
2.0
-0.8
-2.8
1.1

441
442
37
444
445
446
447

0.
0.3
0.4

0.
0.1
0.8

-0.2
0,1
-0.2

451
452
453

2.1
1.6
1.3
-1.3
1.4
1.7

0.7
-0.9
-0.9
-2.6
1.0
1.5

500
501
502
510
511
512

B2. Wages and Productivity
340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls
341. Real average hourly earnings of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls
345 Average hourly compensation nonfarm business sector
346. Real average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector
370 Output per hour business sector
358 Output per hour nonfarm business sector

1977 = 100

.do
do
do
do
do

. .

C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment
441
442
37
444
445
446
447

Civilian labor force
Civilian employment
Number of persons unemployed
Number unemployed males 20 years and over
Number unemployed females 20 years and over
Number unemployed both sexes 16-19 years of age
Number unemployed full-time workers

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates:
451 Males 20 years and over3
452 Females 20 years and over3
453 Both sexes 16-19 years of age3

Millions

do
Thousands

'

do
do
do
do

Percent

do
do

119.86 121.67
112.44 114.97
7,425
6,701
2,987
3,369
2,487
2,709
1,226
1,347
5,357
5,979
78.0
56.2
54.7

77.9
56.8
55.3

1 2 3 . 2 9 1 2 3 . 7 9 1 2 4 , 0 0 1 2 4 . 0 4 124.10 1 2 4 . 5 2
116.90 117 .29 117 .50 117 .46 117,54 117 .79
6,501
6 ,501 6 ,584
6,561
6,391
6, 7 2 9
2,798
2,902
2, 8 2 6
3,038
2,992
2,854
2,376
2,478
2,353
2,472
2,492
2,499
1,188
1,203
1,193
1,187
1, 169
1 ,245
5, 161
5,116
5 ,255 5,218
5 ,354
5,219
78.1
57.6
55,2

78.1
57.7
56.0

77.9
57.8
55 .8

77.9
57.8
55.6

78.0
57.5
56.6

78.0
57.8
57.0

D. Government Activities
Dl. Receipts and Expenditures

501
502
510
511
512

Federal Government receipts
Federal Government expenditures
State and local government surplus or deficit3
State and local government receipts
State and local government expenditures

517
525
548
557
570
564

Defense Department gross obligations incurred
Defense Department prime contract awards
Mfrs ' new orders defense products
. ..
Industrial production defense and space equipment
Employment defense products industries
Federal Government purchases for national defense

-161.4 - 1 4 5 . 8 - 1 4 7 . 5 - 1 4 5 . 4 -144.7
A r bil dol
do
911.4
9 7 2 . 4 1036.2 1053.2 1043.2
do
1 0 7 2 . 8 1118.3 1183.7 1198.6 1187.9
do
51.3
49.7
48.8
47,5
44.9
do
656 .1
701.6
732.6
742.6
750.3
604.8
651.9
683.8
695.1
705.5
. , .. .. do ... ...

D2. Defense Indicators
Mil. dol

do
do
1977=100
Thousands

A r bil dol

30,812 31,783, 3 0 , 8 3 2 30,315
11,977
NA
NA
NA
9 ,145
9,140
8,478
8,354
188.9
185.8
180.6
179.3
1,580
1,550
1,528
1,529
294.8
298.0
298.7
301.3

NA
NA
NA
NA
8 , 7 4 0 10,639
182.3
182.1
1,517
1,513
307.8

NA
NA
NA
NA
9 , 6 6 8 11,173
175.7
177.1
1,506
NA

NA
NA
-9.1
-3.5
-0.5

NA
NA
15.6
0.8
NA

-1.7
NA
-1.5
0.7
-0.1
0.9

NA
NA
4.6
0.9
-0.7
2.2

517
525
548
557
570
564

1.1
-3,1
0.
5.1
3.5
-5.2

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

5.3
6,3
-0.1
2.8
21.5
-7,2

-0.9
-5.4
9.2
-0.3
-7.9
2.0

602
604
606
612
614
616

E. U.S. International Transactions
El. Merchandise Trade
602
604.
606.
612.
614.
616.

Exports excluding military aid shipments
Exports of domestic agricultural products.
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
General imports
Imports of. petroleum and petroleum products .
Imports of automobiles and parts




. ., Mil. dol
.do.
.do.
.do.
.do.

do

2 1 , 1 7 6 26 , 8 6 8 2 9 , 2 9 4 3 0 , 8 3 3 3 0 , 5 7 0 3 0 , 6 8 0 3 1 , 0 0 8
2,400
3,114
3,337
3,548
3,357
3,274
3,173
4,428
5,549
5,830
5,823
6,358
6,413
6,412
3 3 , 8 5 4 3 6 , 7 4 6 3 8 , 5 4 9 3 9 , 6 2 4 3 9 , 5 2 2 3 9 , 1 9 4 41,210
3,471
3,680
4,470
3,209
4,000
4,141
4,119
5,896
5,942
6,078
5,643
5,754
6,215
5,894

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

Table 1.

Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data'
Series title

Percent change
E

Anrual average

ol

3dQ
1988

MiQ
1988

IstQ
1989

ZdQ
1989

3dQ
1989

4th Q
to
IstQ

IstQ
to
2dQ

2<jQ
to
3dQ

1989

2dQ
1988

1989

1989

-2.36
2.6
3.6

10.19
6.0

0.83

-0.20
0.2
0.3

ZJ

9,

1986

1987

1988

-29.37
97.99
127.36
-36.26
55.84
92 .11
22.15
16.74

-32.37
111.54
143.91
-39.88
62.57
102.44
26.18
20.60

-27.97
132.45
160.42
-31.80
79.81
111.62
26.94
26.39

-30.59
126.80
157.39
-31.41
78.47
109.88
23.15
25.61

-28.96
131.57
160.54
-30.34
80.60
110.94
24.72
27.31

-23.66
143.63
167.28
-32.02
83.73
115.75
33.16
28.67

-26.86
142.17
169.03
-28.38
87.92
116.30
26.83
29.25

-29.22
145.92
175.14
-27.55
91.42
118.98
26.64
32.76

-19.03
154.64
173.67
-27.75
91.57
119.32
33.81
31.20

5.0
0.5
-19.1
2.0

A.r., bil. dol
do
A.r., dollars
A.r, bil. dol
do
do
A.r., dollars

4231.6
3717.9
15,385
3712.4
3013.3
2635.3
10,905

4524.3
3853.7
15,794
3830.0
3205.9
2676.6
10,970

4880.6
4024.4
16,334
3996.5
3477.8
2793.2
11,337

4838.5
4010.7
16,303
3989.2
3435.9
2773.3
11,273

4926.9
4042.7
16,388
4005.2
3511.7
2806.4
11,377

5017.3
4069.4
16,452
4051.0
3587.4
2835.9
11,466

5113.1
4106.8
16,567
4082.3
3689.5
2881.7
11,625

5201.7
4132.5
16,633
4113.5
3747.7
2887.6
11,622

5281.0
4162.9
16,709
4141.0
3806.8
2919.2
11,717

1.9
0.9
0.7
0.8
2.8
1.6
1.4

1.7
0.6
0.4
0.8
1.6
0.2
0.

1.5
0.7
0.5
0.7
1.6
1.1
0.8

200
50
217
213
224
225
227

A.r., bil. dol
do
do
do

2797.4
2446.4
406.0
384.4
942.0
878.1
1449.5
1183.8

3010.8
2513.7
421.0
389.6
998.1
890.4
1591.7
1233.7

3235.1
2598.4
455.2
413.6
1052.3
904.5
1727.6
1280.2

3204.9
2586.8
454.6
414.8
1042.4
899.2
1707.9
1272.8

3263.4
2608. 1
452.5
410.7
1066.2
910.3
1744.7
1287.0

3324.0
2627 .7
467.4
420.5
1078.4
912.0
1778.2
1295.2

3381.4
2641.0
466.4
419.3
1098.3
915.0
1816.7
1306.7

3444.1
2653.7
47 1.0
424.9
1121.5
909.7
1851.7
1319.0

3508.1
2690.1
486.1
436.4
1131.4
920.8
1.890.6
1332.9

1.7
0.5

1.9
0.5
1.0
1.3
2.1

1.9
1.4
3.2
2.7
0.9
1.2
2.1
1.1

230
231
232
233
236
238
237
239

do

659.4
639.6
652.5
634.1
6.9
5.6

699.9
674.0
670.6
650.3
29.3
23.7

750.3
715.8
719.6
687.9
30.6
27.9

748.4
713.5
719.1
692.0
29.3
21.5

771.1
733.6
726.5
696.1
44.6
37.5

752.8
709.1
734.1
690.8
18.7
18.3

769.6
721.1
742.0
696.6
27.7
24.5

775.0
719.8
747.6
700.7
27.4
19.1

779.1
724.6
751.7
702.7
27.4
21.9

0.5
0.7
0.5
0.3
0.
2.8

240
241
242
243
245
30

do
do
do
do
do
do

872.2
761.6
366.5
334.1
505.7
427.5

926 .1
781.8
381.6
339.6
544.5
442.1

968.9
785.1
381.3
328.9
587 .6
456.2

960.1
783.0
377 .1
327.9
583.0
455.1

9 5 8 . 6 1011.4 1016.0 1 0 3 3 . 2 1038.9
806.4
799.7
810.3 805.3
775.9
406.4 399.0 406.0 402.7
367.5
336.1
319.8 343.9 335.5 343.6
5 9 1 . 0 6 0 4 . 9 6 1 7 . 0 627 .2 6 3 6 . 2
469.2
466.7
456.1
462.5 464.2

0.6

260
261
262
263
266
267

do
do
do
do
do
do

-97.4 -112.6
-129.7 -115.7
448.6
396.5
397.1 450.9
493.8 561.2
566.6
526.9

-73.7
-74.9
547.7
530.1
621.3
605 .0

-74.9
-72.6
532.5
519.7
607.5
592.3

-66.2
-74.9
556.8
531.9
623.0
606 .9

do
do
do
do
do
do

3412.6 3665.4 3972.6 3933.6 4005.7 4097.4 4185.2 4249.6 4287.3
2 5 1 1 . 4 2 6 9 0 . 0 2 9 0 7 . 6 2 8 7 8 . 9 2 9 3 5 . 1 2 9 9 7 . 2 3061.7 3118.2 3171.9
343.3
2 8 2 . 0 311.6
327.8 331.8
327.0 328.3
359.3
355.5
5.4
11.6
15.7
14.6
16.3
16.1
11.8
9.8
13.4
328.6
340.2
316.3
307.8 295.2
282.1 298.7
325.3
330.9
353.6
391.5
383.0
396.4 415.7
436.1 458.4 471.5
331.9

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Con.
E2. Goods and Services Movements Except
Transfers Under Military Grants
667. Balance on goods and services668. Exports of good's and services

Bil. dol

.:

620. Merchandise imports, adjusted
651. Income on U.S. investment abroad

do
do
do
do
do
do
do

-3.20
-1.0

1.0
3.64

4.0
2.3
-0.7
12.0

-0.8

26.9
-4.8

667
668
669
622
618
620
651
652

A. National Income and Product
Al. GNP and Personal Income
200.
50.
217.
213

Gross national product
Gross national product in 1982 dollars
Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars
Final sales in 1982 dollars

227. Per capita disposable personal income m 1982 dollars
A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
230.
231
232
233.
236.
238.
237.
239.

Total
Total in 1982 dollars
Durable goods
Durable goods in 1982 dollars.
Nondurable goods
Nondurable goods in 1982 dollars.
Services
.•
Services in 1982 dollars

.do.

do
.do
do.

-0.2
-0.3

1.8
0.3
2.2
0.9

-0.6

1.9
0.9

A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240
241.
242.
243.
245.
30.

Total
Total m 1982 dollars
Fixed investment
Fixed investment in 1982 dollars .
Change in business inventories3
Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars3

do
do.
.do.

do.
.1)0.

2.2
1.7
1.1
0.8
9.0
6.2

0.7
-0.2

0.8
0.6
-0.3
-5.4

A4. Government Purchases
of Goods and Services
260
261
262
263,

Total
Total in 1982 dollars
Federal Government
Federal Government in 1982 dollars

0.5
-0.8
-1.8
-2.4

2.0
0.4

1.7
1.3
1.8
2.4
1.7
0.5

-0.6
-0.8
-2.2

1.4
0.5

A5. Foreign Trade
255 Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars3

257. Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars

-70.8
-73.8
579.7
551.4
650.5
625.2

-54.0
-55.0
605.6
569.7
659.6
624.6

-50.6
-51.2
626.1
587.5
676.6
638,7

-45.1
-57.1
628.5
593.1
673.6
650.2

16.8
18.8

4.5
3.3
1.4
-0.1

3.4
3.8
3.4
3.1
2.6
2.3

5.5
-5.9

0.4
1.0
-0.4

1.8

250
255
252
256
253
257

A6. National Income and Its Components
220. National income
284. Rental income of persons with CCAdj
286. Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj
288 Net interest

2.1
2.2
9.4
-26.7
-7.0

1.5
1.8
-1.1

-16.9
-2.7

0.9
1.7
-3.4

-44.9
-4.1

4.9

5.1

2.9

7 .1

0.3
1.1

2.0
3.6

220
280
282
284
286
288

A7. Saving
290 Gross saving
292. Personal saving
298. Government surplus or deficit3

do
do
do
do
Percent

525.3 553.8
544.6
562.0
124.9
101.8
-144. 1 -110.1
4. 1
3.2

642.4
593.8
144.7
-96.1
4.2

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by © , that appear to contain no seasonal
movement. Series indicated by an asterisk {*) are included in the major compos te indexes. Dollar values are in
current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles and sources, see "Ttles and Sources of
Series" at the back of this issue. NA, not available, a, anticipated. EOF, end of period. A.r., annual rate. S/A,
seasonally adjusted (used tor special emphasis). IVA, inventory valuation adjus ment. CCAdj, capital consumption
adjustment.
1
The three-part timing code indicates the timing classiticaton of the series at peaks, a troughs, and at all
turns: L, leading: C, roughly coincident; Lg, lagging; (J, unclassified.
:
Foi a lew series, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual
figures published by the source agencies are used if available.




633.4
588.5
134.0
-89.1
3.9
1

6 6 9 . 8 647 .4
592.8 605.8
149.6
163.4
-72.7 -121.9
4.3
4.6

693.5
586.4
205.7
-98.7
5.6

695.8
593.0
200.7
-97.9
5.4

709 .9
614.5
195.1
-99.8
5.1

-3.2
25.9
23.2

1.0

-2.4

0.8
-0.2

-2.8
-1.9
-0.3

290
295
292
298
293

Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series,
'Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of
the changes are reversed.
s
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the
period,
6
T h s series is a weighted 4-term moving average (wth weights 1, 2, 2, I) placed on the terminal month of
the span,
' This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada.

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

Chart Al. Composite Indexes
July May
P T

Aug. Apr.
F T

Apr. Feb.
F T

Dec. Nov
P T

Jan. July July Nov.
F T P
T

195253 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.

10



DECEMBER 1989

BCD

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart Al. Composite Indexes—Continued
July May
P

T

I Index: 1967=1001
915. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 8,32,36,99)

916. Profitability (series 19,26,80)

i
f

917, Money and *™«ml flm** («ri« 1M, lOfi, 111)

-^

I
f

/
/
J./ ^* "'

"20

ft

~

IS

"

^v.

/V^

|
|

j^IZ

,T

f^^

150-

^

140-

EH

y/'^^V.jrw-v-A/

A,/

130120-

I
110-

||
1
1

21
IP
11%

•

,

' '
(

'
' v'

.
-a

-2

r^\^/
S^^

^r*
A
_/*"^

100-

^

9080-

?n.

Ihdex: 1982=1001
130-1

940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index
120-

^11

^^^

W*H

.c_xA\//
.
V*/

-^

*•

yr^*^>^

/V

\r\./ '^
V V
=,

1952 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 6/ 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 73 80 3}

a

.

11010090-

14 -Hi 86 87 881989

NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.

IICII DECEMBER 1989



11

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A2. Leading Index Components

1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours)

5, Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (thousands—inverted scale)

ul

10C-!

8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods
and materials industries (bil. dol.)!

32. Vendor performance—slower defceries diffusion index (percent)

20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
1982 dollars (bil. dol.)

195253 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 09

70 71 7? 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 61, 64, and 66,

12



DECEMBER 1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued
July May
P T

29. (tew private housing units authorized by to;
hiilrEno nermifc rtnrimr 1<)fi7 = 1flftt

ndustries, smoothed1 (bl. dot.)
/v

99. Change in sensitive materials
L.L.L

19. Stock prices, 500

106. Money supply MM 1982 dollars

83. Index of consider expectations2 (Mex: 1st Q 1966=100)

195253 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989
1

This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada.
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 69, 71, and 97.
2

BCII DECEMBER 1989



13

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A3. Coincident Index Components

120-i

110100-

41. Employees on nonagricutural payrolls (millions)
90-

fcZcl ;'

51. Personal income UK transfer payments in
1982 dollars (m rate, bil.dd.)
C,C,Cl

47. Industrial production fodex: 1977=100)

P

57. Manufacturing and trade sates in

1952 53 54

55 56 57 58 5'-! tv:i 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 T'

•^ 86 S7 881989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 63, and 65.

14



DECEMBER 1989

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A4. Lagging Index Components

91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale)

77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sates in
1982 dollars (ratio) |Lg,Lg,Lg|
""

\y

A.

£

1.8-

»

3££

10

1.71.6«
1.4 J

62. Change in index of labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing, smoothed1 (aim, rate, percent)

109. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent)

101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.)

95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income (percent)

17151311-

120. Change in consumer price index for services, smoothed1
(ann. rate, percent) |Lg,Lg,Lg|

1952 53 54 55 56 57

J /I 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989

'This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 73, and 97.

BCII

DECEMBER 1989



15

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment

[Marginal Employment Adjustments|
1. Average weekly hour* of production or nonsupervisory vff ers,
manufacturing (hoji»; 1 |u,L

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nonsupervisory wflrkers,
manufacturing (hours)
JJTS*

5: Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insu
; State programs (thousands—inverted scale) [i c,L

60. Ratio, helpof persons

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

isini in newspapers to
(rae°) I L.LJ.U

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 61.

16




DECEMBER

1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Continued

"

|-f

200-

[Comprehensive Employment |

,

YtM

JT^

m

Si
^^^
Jp, x"
/^'
" -f^

4K*jfinployee hours in nonajricultural establishments —
>;>,' (am. rate, Wl hours): IB c nl

190-

180170«

120
115
110

105100'
95'

42. Persons enpged in nonagricuttural activities (millions)

S^

"*&**...

':•' '• [W] .-"-1

J

90'
85'

\

,1-

41. Employees on nonagricultural tells (trillions)
•t,'. !•

65

27-1

40. Eirptoyees on nonagricultural payrolls, goods-producing
industries (millions)

26'
25

24'
23'
22'
63
62

Uil
90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (percent).

r

^

y.

~*S\/

6160
59
58

5756
55

(i-

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

ilO

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 61 and 62.

DECEMBER
1989



17

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Continued

I Comprehensive Unemployment |

37. Number of persons unemployed (millions—inverted scale)

^j

/wA

X

ll.Lg.Ul
5-

7-

91113-

43. Unemployment rate (percent—inverted scale)

\

I-.U.U

\

567-

A/****/"

891011-

45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (percent—inverted scale)
2.

V:

3-

f

456
7

91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale)
10121416182022-

44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent—inverted scale)
0-

IH.U.UI

2-

\
1962

63

64

65

i-

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

8i

82

3-

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 62.

18



DECEMBER 1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B2. Production and Income

I Comprehensive Output and Income]
f

50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q (arm. rate, bil. dot.)

<

52. Personal income in 1982 dollars (am. rate, oil. dol.)

cioc

30002800-

51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dotos
(am. rate, \"

2600-

:

I

24002200-

53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing,
and construction (ann. rate, bil. doL)

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

73

74

?8

79

80

81

8?

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 63.

BCD

DECEMBER 1989




19

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B2. Production and Income—Continued
Jan. July
P T

July
P

Nov.
T

I Industrial Production

production (index: 1977=100)

/^

table manufactures

74. Industrial production, nondurable
(index: 1977=100)
fill

of goods output in 1982 dollars, Q

[Capacity Utilization
82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (percent)

84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (percent)

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.

20



DECEMBER

1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries

8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer
goods and materials industries (Ml. dol.)

25. Change in manufceturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries T7
fhil del; MCD BliHinoauff fl-term'*
&ii
(ML iW-Mm moving avg.-4-term) . . . ' - . . :

500 •
450 '
400 •
350 •
300 •

96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries

250 •
200 •
150 •

100 J

32. Vendor performance—slower deliveries diffusion index (percent)
100 1
7550-

25 •
1962 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
Current data for these series are shown on page 64.

ItCII

DECEMBER 1989




70

77

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

21

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued

P

T

P

T

| Consumption and Trade |
57. Manufacturing aid tade sates
in 1982 dollars (bil. dd.)

Eel \

56. Manufacturing and trade sate in current dollars
(MLdoL)
j^cl X

75. Industrial production, consumer goods
(index: II7I-100) fclcl

59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars (bil. doL)

54. Sales of retail stores IB current dollars (bil. dot)

55. Personal conwinption expendhwesT
automobites, Q (am. rate, ML dol.)

58. Index of consumer sentiment1 (1st Q 1966=100)

V

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

"Thit it a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center.
Current data for these series are shown on page 65.

22



DECEMBER 1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment

I Formation of Business Enterprises!

12. Net business formation (index: 1967=100) 0
1

13. New business incorporations (thousands)
L

[Business Investment Commitments|

10. Contracts and orders for pferrt and equipment
in current dollars P. dol) n

20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1982 dollars (bit. dol.)

27. Manufacturers' new orders in
capital goods industries (bil. dol.)

24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondefense
capital goods industries {bil doi.)

9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and Industrial
bailings (mil. sq. ft. of floor space; MCD moving avg.-5-term)1

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

1

This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66.

KCII DECEMBER 1989



23

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued

[Business Investment Commitments—Con.]
97. Backlog «f capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing _/
corporations, Q (Ml. dol.)

2

5

110100908070-

±L

60555045403530252015-

l . Newly approved capftal appropriatioiB, 1,000 manufacturing
l
corporations, Q (bil. dd.) y.L.u
10 J

100. Expendtures n 1982 (Wars tor new plant and equipment.
Q (am, m, ML dot)
I Business Investment Expenditures

61. Expenditures in current daps for new plant and
equipment, Q (am.

69. Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures
(am. rate, U. «|) [c±t

76. Industrial production, business equipment
Ondex: 1977=100)

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.

24




DECEMBER 1989

KCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued

| Business Investment Expenditures—Co
Gross private nonresktential fix

[Residential Construction Commitmentsaftd Investment|

'.y&kl
units started (am. rate, millions)

New private housing unrts
(index: »=100)
Ofc

local building permits

W. Gross private

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 67.

DECEMBER 1989




25

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment

| Inventory Investment]
30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars, Q (am. rate, bil. dot.)

XI

36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on
order in 1982 dollars (an. rate, bil. dot.; moving avg.-4-term1)
+ 90 -i

60-

31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories
(m rate, bil. doL; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

38. Change in manufactured inventories, materials and supplies on
hand and on order (ML del; MCD moving avg.—4-term)

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

05

86

87

88 1989

1

This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.

26



DECEMBER 1989

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued

I Inventories on Hand and on Order I
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1982 dollars (HI dd.)

71. Manufacturing and trade inventories
in current dollars (biL dol.)
|Lg,Lg,Lg|

65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods
|Lg,Lg.Lg

77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars

78. Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order (bil. del) HT

Z

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

7}

/3

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

8-1

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 68.

BCI»

DECEMBER 1989




27

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS— Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits

98. Change in producer prices for sensitive crude ax) intermediate materials
i
(percent; MCD. moving avg.—6-tem) [[JJ]

[ Sensitive Commodity Prices |

I
Ji .aftfa

i 99. Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed' (percent)
A J

.

..'>.. i i - . . . 5UT

/L

23. Spot market prices, raw industrial materials2 (index: 1967=100).

[uiul

[Stock Prices |
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10)

18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars, Q
(ann.rate,M.dol.) [IJJ1 "

[Profits and Profit Margins

16. Corporate profits after taxjn current dollars, Q
(am. rate, bil. doL)
fiTi\

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

79

30

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

' This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada.
Beginning with data for June 1981, this is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
2

28



DECEMBER 1989

ltd)

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued

4£r • llHJBts and Profit Margms-^Con
with IVA and CCAdj in

80. Corporate profits

79. Corporate profits after tax with RfA and CCAdj in
current dollars, Q (am. rate, Ml. dot)

after \n to corporate domestic
income, u (percent)

81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj
to corporate domestic income, Q (percent) I u LL
of sates, manufacturing corporations, Q (cents)

26. Ratio, implicit price de|aw fe unit labor cost, nonfarm business
SWtor.Q (index:

35. Corporate net cash flow in ^2 dollars, Q
(am. rale, bil. dol.)

34. Corporate net cash flow In current dollars, Q
idle, UN. uui.; i i l l

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.

IICII

DECEMBER 1989



29

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued

[Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share]

,X

63. Unit labor cost, business sector, Q

(index: 1977=100)

L L i

68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of goss domestic product
in 1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations, Q (dollars)

62. Labor cost per unit $ output, manufacturing
(in*,: 1977-MI).

r

64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income,

H

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

81

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 70.

30




DECEMBER 1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit

85. Change in money supply Ml
(percent; MCP moving avg.—6-term)

102. Change in money supply M2
(percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

(percent; MCD moving avg.—6-tenn) |L

106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (Ml dol.)

107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml, Q (ratio)

|c,c,cl

7.57.0-

^~~Jk

6.56.05.55.0-

108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (ratio)

^^A

. jf

w»-

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

1.501.451.401.351.30- '
1.251.20-

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 71.

DECEMBER 1989



31

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued

[Credit Flows I

33. Net Change in mortgage
and Me insurance

by financial institutions
rate, bil. dol)

'•if

112; Net change in business bans (am. rate, ML dot.;
MCD moving avg.~P»«n)

113. Net change in consumer installment credit (am. rate, bil. dol
MCD moving avg.—6-terar)" |£[

111. Change in business and consumer
(am. ratei percent)

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.

32



DECEMBER 1989

KCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued

| Credit Difficulties J
14. Current labilities of business failures (mil. dol.
scale; MCD moving avg.—6-terni)

Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over
inverted scate)

93. Free reserves (bil. dol.—inverted scale)
L,U,U

94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve (bil. doO

H<62 6.s

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

.'1

J'A

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 72.

ItCII

DECEMBER 1989




33

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued

[interest Rates!
119, Federal funds rate (percent)

if

114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(percent, |C,Lg.U|

116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(Percent) |Le,Lg,Lg

lib. Yield on long-term treasury MUMS (percent)

118. Secondary market yields on nw mortgages (percent;

117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-oond average (percent)

1962

63

64

65

6<>

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

7'.)

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73.

34



DECEMBER 1989

KCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued

[Interest Rates—Con.
109. Overate prime rate charged by banks (percent)

67. Bank rates on short-tern business loans, 0 (percent)

[Outstanding Debt I
101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982 eWlart
(WLdd.)
V
fffi551\

72. Commercial and industrial torn outstanding in current

66. Consumer installment credrt outstandmg (ML dot)

95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income
(percent)

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 73.

ltd)

DECEMBER 1989




35

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes
Dec.
P

Hov
T

950. Si*

Jan. July

July

New

P T

P

T

leading wkatw components (6-mo. span—, 1-mo.

y\m '&•:.- iw.\ Ajnfc <
/ \h«.L-iT'l I'Tttmrai.
coincident indraW components (6-mo. span—,

ig indicator compomnts (6-mo. span—, 1-mo.

Birr iLu/fui w . afl«f
961. Avaf«| weekly hours of production or nonsupenrisory workers,
maifcjrinr industries (9-tno. span—, 1-mo. span-—)

mM

declining;; 9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—-)

963. Employees on private
(6-mo. man—, 1

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

7G

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 74.

36



DECEMBER

1989

t!€l»

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes—Continued

964. (Manufacturers' new orders, 34-35 durable goods industries
*""
span—,

| Percent rising]
lOO-i

50-

0-1

flewly approved capital appropriations in 1982 dollars, 17
- inanufacturing indusWes (4-Q moving avg«*«, 1-Q span***)
'

'

'

'

966. fctdustrial production, 24 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—-)
lOO-i

50-

967. Spot market prices, p raw industrial materials
(9-mo. span—, 1-rno. span—-)

:. ,

lOO-i

50-

J968. StocK prices, SOU common stocks, 33-82 industries
(9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—)
100-1

50-

O- 1

960. Net profits, manufacturing, about 600 companies1 (4-Q span)
90-i
807060-

V

5040-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

'/">

/i

74

75

76

77

78

79

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

i This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.

ItCII

DECEMBER

1989




37

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes—Continued

Actual
Anticipated

Actual
Anticipated

•• .*. .•

/ 970. Expenditures for new plant and
f:
equipment, 21 Industries (1-Q span)
(a) Actirf expenditures

974. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1

975. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
(c) Earty projections

971. New orders, manufacturing (4-Qspan)1

976. Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q span)1

lOO-i
90-

70-

972. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1

977. Selling prices, wholesale trade (4-Q span)1
90 n

100-

80-

90-

70-

80-

60-

70-

^f^f

50-1

60-

1

1

978. Selling prices, retail trade (4-Q span)

974 Net sates, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)

lOO-i

90807060-

1978 79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89 1990

1978 79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89 1990

i This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400
business executives.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.

38



DECEMBER 1989

BCD

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart C3. Rates of Change

| Percent change at annual rate I

1-month spans
3-nwnth spans

910c. Composite Index of eleven leading indicators

920c. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators

Ill

+ 30-1

+ 20+ 100-10-20-

930c. Composite index of seven lagging indicators

47c. Index of industrial production

50c. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (1-Q span)
0-10-

48c. Employee hours in nonagricuRural establishments

51c. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dotes

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index— Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series were published.

ItCIt

DECEMBER

1989




39

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart Al. GNP and Personal Income

550050004500400035003000-

200. Gross national product in current dollars, Q (arm. rate, bil. dol.)

25002000-

1500-

223. Personal income in current dollars
(am.rate,Ml. dol.) \

\

1000-1

224. Disposable personal income in current
dollars, Q (am. rate, bil. dol.)

50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)

450040003500 -

213. Final sates in 1982 dollars, Q (am. rate, oil. dol.)

3000 25002000-

225. Disposable personal income in 1982
dollars, Q (ann. rate, bit dol.)

1500-

217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q
(am. rate, ihous. dol.)

1816141210-

227. Per capita disposable personal income in
1982 dollars, Q (am. rate, thous. dol.)

1962

6,3

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

75

76

77

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80.

40



DECEMBER 1989

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
Dec.
P

Mov.
T

Jan. July
F T

July
P

Nov.
T

81

82

Personal consumption expendtures—

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 80 and 81.

KCII

DECEMBER 1989




41

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
Dec
P

Nov.
T

No:
P

Mi
!

I Annual rate, biondobrs (current) |
900800700-

Gross private domestic investment—

600500400-

240. Total, Q -5
300-

200 J

242. Rued investment, Q

245. Change in business inventories, 0

Annual rate, blondolars (1982)1

30. Cninf* to misiness inventories, Q

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 81.

42



DECEMBER 1989

IICII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services

| Annual rate, falon doiars (current)]

Government purchases of goods and sarvices-

300-

200-

266. State and local
fovetixient, Q

100-

| Annual rate, biondolars (1982) I

267. State mi local government, Q

300-

200-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 81.

ItCII

DECEMBER 1989




43

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A5. Foreign Trade
Dec. Nov.
P
T

Annual rate, bBon doiars (current)|

of goods and services, Q

253. Imports of goods and services, Q

250. Net exports of goods and services, Q

Annual rate, Hfon doiars (1982)

of goods and services, Q
256. Exports of goods and services, Q

255. Net exports of goods and services, Q

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

76

n

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.

44



DECEMBER 1989

ItUI

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A6. National Income and Its Components

ftnnual rate, blon dolars (current) |.

280. Compensation of employees, Q

Corporate profits before tax with i
and capital consumption adj

282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption aaiusmwms

20-

. Rental income of persons v«8i capital
consumption adjustment, Q

10-

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

/O

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.

I C ) DECEMBER
I
I

1989




45

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A7. Saving

Annual rate, Mon ddars (current)

60-

40-1

298. Government surplus or deficit, Q
+ 200-

-20-40-60-

lO-i

6-

^VW1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

42-1
1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 82 and 83.

46



DECEMBER 1989

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income

70-1

65-

60-

2M. State and local govemmerrt purchases tr
of goods and services. Q
'
265. Federal Government purchases of goods aid services, Q
gfMWZ^K

11 III

™T«ni

Nonresidential feed investment, Q

X

investment, Q
247, Change in business inventories, Q

251. Net exports of goods and
-5

[Percent of National Income!
80n

64. Compensation of employees, Q
75-

70-

65

287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation ,.
and capital consumption adjustments, Q
10-

283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments, Q

Jft
289. Net interest, Q

285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, Q
1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 83.

KCII

DECEMBER 1989




47

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

Chart Bl. Price Movements

I Index: 1982=4001

310c, h»lidtpr&deflatfl(|'|tdss I Percent change at annual rate!

310.

x, gross domestic business product
311. Fated-weighted price index,

'i 330c. (Ml commodities

" 331c. Crude materials for
further processing

335. Indmtrial commodities

materials, supplies, and components

v<

J^jjjy

+<;u"

v r

"

333,, Capital equipment

+ 10^~

i
T \-£k

^

_
V

*.v

1977

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

1977

78

79

80

r^^S\.

81

82

83

84

85

(Uj

86

87

88

0-in.

1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 85, and 86.




DECEMBER 1989

BCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Chart Bl. Price Movements—Continued

Consumer price indexes—

322c, All urban consumers, food (6-month

Chart B2. Wages and Productivity
I Index: 1977=1001

341. Real mite hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
private

340, Average hourly earnings of production or
on private nonagricuttural payrolls (cu

age hourly compensation, all employees,
business sector, Q .

345. Average hourly compensation,
nonfarm business sector. Q (cu

64

65

66

67

68

69

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

1

Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88.

ItCII

DECEMBER 1989




49

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued
1

[ Wages—Con. |

F

!

U_gLcen

Change in average hourly ean«ngs of production or nareupervisory workers on private nonagrictftural payrolls'—
1

340c. Current-dollar earnings

i

'

t I

I

HO-

. JA LUW***^*^
341c. Real earnings

, . t, .

+5

HfW

1-month spans2
\

6-month spans (am. rate)
\

.,

-5-

-10'

Change in average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q—

*

345c. Current-dollar compensation

+ 15

d-marter snans

+ 10
+ 5-

'*——1-quarter spans (arm. rate)

0-

346c. Real compensation
+ 10-

1-quarter spans (am. rate)
+ 50-

-5-

Negotiated wage and benefit decisions—

348. Average first-year changes, Q (am. rate)

349. Average changes over life of

Mndei:1977=IOOI
[ Productivity |
358. Output per hour, all persons,
nonfarm business sector, Q
370. Output per hour, all persons,

370c. Change in output per hour, all persons, business sector, Q

1962

63

64

65

66

67

1

71

72

73

74

75

Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality.
with the annualized 6-month changes. See page 87 for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88.

50




76
2

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make them comparable

DECEMBER 1989

ltd)

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
C I

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Chart Cl. Civilian Labor Force and Major Components

441. Civilian labor force (millions)

Cmlian labor force pupation rates (percent)-

451. Hfci 20 years and over

453. Soft sexes 16-19 years of an

451 Females 20 years and over
Number unetnptoyed (mllnns)

~

37. Persons unemployed

f

445. Females 20 years and over

444. Mates 20 yean
and over

446. Both sexes 16-19 years of age
447. Number unemployed, full-time workers (millions)

"•-448. Number of persons employed part time for economic
reasons (millions)

1962

63

64

65

66

t?

68

/1

12

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

83

8?

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 89.

KCII DECEMBER 1989




51

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
|D|

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

Chart Dl. Receipts and Expenditures
Dec, Nov.
P
T

rate, bwn (Mars (current)

al Government wpeixftures, Q

500. Fedwl iwetnment surplus or deficit, Q

and local government receipts, Q—^

12. State and local government

510. State and local government surplus or

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 90.

52



DECEMBER 1989

BCD

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators

40-

[Advance Measures of Defense

3530-

2520-

517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred

(bil. dol.; MC8 Moving avg.-6-temi)
15-

22 -.
201816141210-

Defense Department prime contract awards
(bil. do).; MOD moving avg.-6-term)
6-1

240-,
220200180160-

140120100141210-

6-

ufacturers' new orders, defense products
dol.; MCD moving avg.—6-term)

1S62 6.:

;>!

65

66

67

68

69

70

/I

72

:i

74

75

76

77

, .

78

79

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 90.

!!€!»

DECEMBER 1989




53

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
£) I

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
f

T

I Intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity]

- 3

559. ManuhKtwers' inventories, defense products.
18-

14-

18016014012010080-

603430262218-

14-

W si
ISPs

f

net outlays, itintfanctionsand military
580. Dafentc
assistance (bil dol.)

1098-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 91.

54



DECEMBER 1989

BCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES— Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators— Continued

I Intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity—Con. |
.;'

570. Employment, defense products industries (mfflions)

2.01.81.61.41.21.0-

Defense Department personnel (millions)—
T

3.53.0-

577. Military personnel on active duty
2.5-

2.01.5-

578. Civilian personnel, direct hire employment

:

1.0-

400350300-

I National Defense Purchases |

250200-

3w. rWBrai uovornrnem purcnases or gooos ana services, nauonti
defense, Q (arm. rate, bH dol.)
——
KCA 'ftkjjfr.-r.l ^iliiiliiiiiiiiiil iiililjUtlia'm j*f jfjulA*

«Mj4 *A»«jiA«* nittinni&f

150-

100-

50-

565. National defense purchases as a percent of GNP, Q (percent)
10-

Jffl

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

7654-

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 91.

BUI

DECEMBER 1989




55

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E I

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

Chart El. Merchandise Trade

2015-

602. ExpH^xdudng military aid sttpments (Ml. dol.)

J^

7
6

5-

3-

2-

604. Exports of domestic s^iwftiral products
(ML dot)
\'V
t~
5

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (bil. del.)
45403530 -I

10986-

614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum
products (Ml.*'
616. knports of automobiles and parts (bil. dol.)

1962

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

74

75

76

77

78

79

30

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

it'?

i'jb

Current data for these series are shown on page 92.

56



DECEMBER 1989

KCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements
Dec,
P

Nov
T

Kess of receipts

750-j
650550-

xcess of payments

450-

Goods and services—

-

350250-

-

150-

-J

50 J

650550450350250-

-

150-

50-

140-1

120-

-

100-

80-

60-

-

1962 63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

40-

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 93.

IICII

DECEMBER 1989




57

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Chart Fl. Industrial Production

flndex: 1977=1001

[index: 1977=100)

Industrial production—

bidustrial production—

^

s^*
47. United States >^-«^~-^^
~-\J-AL

liil

/

140-

140-

130-

130-

721. OECD European countries

120-

120-

110100-

^K/

/^

110100-

<m-

^y

90J

180'
170'
160
150

140130-

722. United Kingdom

140

728. Japan

120-

130-

110 -

120

110-

100-

100-

90-

90-

140130120110100-

90 J

90 -

u
^»

, __ _^*-J*r~

726, France
^AA*ur^^

140-

723. Canada

130-

120110 •

160150-

120-

,T

110-

100 -

100-

90 -

90-

1977 78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

.1977

78

79

80

81

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on page 94.

58



DECEMBER 1989

ItCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Chart F2. Consumer Prices
Jan. July
P T

July
P

Chart F3. Stock Prices

Nov
T

Jan. July
P T

July Nov.
P
T

28002400-

200018001600140012001000900800700600500-

1977

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

1977

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88 1989

Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96.

DECEMBER 1989




59

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

I

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

^J COMPOSITE INDEXES
910. Index of
eleven leading
indicators (series

930. Index of
seven lagging
indicators (series
62, 77, 91, 95,
101, 109, 120)

940. Ratio,
coincident index
to lagging index '

(1982=100)

(1982 = 100)

(1982 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

136.8
137.6
138.1

119.3
121.0
121.0

112.1
110.9
110.7

106.4
109.1
109.3

108.9
(NA)

June

138.3
139.2
140.6

121.1
121.2
121.5

110.7
110.8
111.0

July
August
September

142.0
143.3
142.9

122.4
123.0
123.1

October
November
December

142.3
140.3
139.7

Year

1, 5, 8, 19, 20,
29, 32, 83, 92,
99, 106)

and

month

(1982 = 100)

920. Index of
four roughly
coincident indicators (series
41, 4 7 . 5 1 , 5 7 )

Leading indicator subgroups
914. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 12, 20,
29)'

915. Inventory
investment and
purchasing
(series 8, 32, 36,
99)

(1967 = 100)

916. Profitability (series
19, 26, 80)

(1967 = 100)

917. Money and
financial flows
(series 104, 106.
Ill)

(1967 = 100)

1987

January
February
March

104.4
104.6
105.3

119.3
120.8
121.5

148.9
147.0
145.4

109.4
109.4
109.5

105.3
106.0
106.7

121.3
121.3
122.9

144.5
144.1
145.6

110.8
110.7
111.7

110.5
111.1
110.2

107.1
106.4
106.6

124.9
124.6
126.1

111.8
112.1
111.8

111.7
111.2
112.8

139.3
141.0
141.4

125.2
126.0
126.7

113.4
113.9
114.3

110.4
110.6
110.8

June

142.0
141.8
144.0

126.9
127.2
128.2

114.6
114.5
114.8

July
August
September

143.0
144.1
143.7

128.6
129.0
129.0

October
November
December

144.0
144.1
145.1

0)146.0
145.6
144.7

April

. . . .

M a y .

.

.

.

107.2
107.4
ED108.2

124.2
0)126.0
124.7

144.5
144.2
145.4

121.7
118.6
118.3

147.1
146.8
146.6

107.1
106.7
106.5

119.0
119.5
119.9

146.9
147.9
149.0

110.7
111.1
111.7

105.5
105.6
105.9

119.5
118.9
120.0

0)151.7
150.7
151.1

114.5
115.1
115.2

112.3
112.1
112.0

105.5
105.5
105.6

119.9
119.5
(NA)

150.3
150.1
147.4

130.4
130.3
131.1

115.0
116.4
116.8

113.4
111.9112.2

105.1
104.9
105.6

131.8
132.0
132.0

118.1
119.3
120.1

111.6
110.6
109.9

132.8
132.5
132.8

119.3
120.3
120.5

111.3
110.1
110.2

132.6
[ED133.9
r!33.5

120.0
r!20.1
rl!9.9

110.5
rill. 5
rill. 3

132.9
133.4

120.3
H>3120.8

rllO.5
pllO.4

1988

January
February
March . .

.

April
May

146.9
146.6
(NA)

1989

January . . .
February
March
April

145.8
144.2
144.0

May

June
July
August
September

r!44.1
144.8
r!45.0

October
November
December

r!44.5
p!44.7

2

(NA)

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ®. that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by 0); for series that move counter to movements
n general business activity, current low values are indicated by 0). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back
of this issue The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 10 and 11.
'These scries readied high values before 1987: series 940 (116.1) in January 1984 and series 914 (111.5) in February 1984.
2
HxcIudes series 57, for whieh data are not a v a i l a b l e .
•'Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data arc not a v a i l a b l e .

60



DECEMBER 1989

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Minor Economic
Process

Marginal Employment Adjustments

Timing Class

Year
and
month

L, C, L

1. Average weekly hours
of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing

(Hours)

L, C, L

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production
or nonsupervisory workers,
manufacturing

5. Average weekly initial
claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs 1

(Hours)

L, L, L

Comprehensive
Employment

Job Vacancies

(Thous.)

U, C, C

L, Lg, U

L, Lg, U

60. Ratio, help-wanted
advertising in newspapers
to number of persons
unemployed

46. Index of help-wanted
advertising in newspapers

(Ann. rate,
bil. hours)

(1967 = 100)

(Ratio)

48. Employee hours in
nonagricultural establishments

mi
January
February
March

40.9
41.1
41.0

3.6
3.6
3.7

355
350
338

0.512
0.531
0.572

136
140
150

187.54
188.59
188.56

April
May
June ;

40.6
41,0
41.0

3.5
3.8
3.7

329
325
325

0.583
0.601
0.614

149
153
152

187.66
189.72
189.97

July
August
September

41.0
41.1
40.6

3.8
3.8
3.7

321
299
293

0.626
0.663
0.661

153
161
158

190.41
191.22
188.29

October
November
December

41.2
41.2
41.1

3.9
3.9
3.8

294
300
311

0.669
0.682
0.662

162
H)162
155

192.23
192.77
192.93

January
February
March

41.1
41.0
41.0

3.9
3.7
3.8

348
314
303

0.652
0.673
0.691

153
156
158

193.12
194.48
194.35

April
May
June

41.2
41.1
41.1

3.9
3.9
3.9

299
305
294

0.701
0.700
0.711

157
160
156

195.81
195.44
196.43

July
August
September

41.1
41.0
41.1

3.9
3.9
3.9

321
298
290

0.714
0.700
0.688

159
160
153

197.24
196.77
197.53

October
November
December

41.2
41.2
41.0

4.0
3.9
3.9

[H>290
297
301

i)0.735
0.716
0.731

161
158
161

198.76
198.14
199.16

41.1
41.1
41.0

3.9
3.9

i)4.o

296
303
318

0.691
0.729
0.733

156
155
151

200.31
200.32
200.33

E>41.3
41.0
41.0

3.9
3.8
3.8

299
312
328

0.723
0.707
0.667

159
152
147

202.10
200.85
201.37

July
August
September

41.0
41.0
r41.0

3.9
3.8
3.8

338
316
320

0.687
0.681
rO.660

150
147
r!46

202.54
201.67
r202.73

October
November
December

40.8
p40.7

r3.7
p3.7

357
343

rO.685
pO.641

r!5l
p!45

r203.42
Dp204.90

1089
Ijoo

1989
January
February
March
April
May
June

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17.
x
Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.




61

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
0

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

8HB EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued

Minor Economic
Process

Comprehensive Employment— Continued

Timing Class

Year
and
month

U,C,C

42. Number
of persons
engaged in nonagricultural
activities

(Thous.)

C, C, C

41. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls

(Thous.)

L,C, U

40. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls,
goodsproducing
industries
(Thous.)

Comprehensive Unemployment
U, Lg, U

90. Ratio,
civilian employment to population of
working age
(Percent)

L, Lg, U

L, Lg, U

37. Number of
persons unemployed

43. Unemployment rate

(Thous.)

(Percent)

L, Lg, U

Lg, Lg, Lg

45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs x

91. Average
duration of
unemployment

(Weeks)

(Percent)

Lg, Lg, Lg

44. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over
(Percent)

1987

January
February
March

107,823
108,066
108,238

100,798
101,015
101,254

24,473
24,532
24,551

60.28
60.39
60.43

7,904
7,848
7,804

6.6
6.6
6.5

2.6
2.6
2.5

14.9
14.5
15.0

1.8
1.8
1.7

April
May .
June

108,566
109,180
109,065

101,582
101,777
101,956

24,573
24,617
24,616

60.56
60.90
60.72

7,605
7,578
7,360

6.4
6.3
6.2

2.5
2.4
2.4

15.0
14.8
14.9

1.8
1.7
1.7

July
August
September

109,377
109,890
109,704

102,293
102,525
102,683

24,701
24,759
24,794

60.83
61.00
60.88

7,271
7,226
7,112

6.1
6.0
5.9

2.3
2.3
2.2

14.2
14.3
14.2

1.6
1.6
1.6

October . .
November
December

109,998
110,320
110,528

103,213
103,470
103,791

24,896
24,966
25,021

61.01
,61.09
61.19

7,204
7,067
6,961

6.0
5.9
5.8

2.1
2.1
2.2

14.0
14.1
14.2

1.5
1.5
1.5

January
February
March

110,799
111,073
110,948

103,970
104,414
104,682

24,935
25,033
25,098

61.29
61.36
61.24

6,980
6,892
6,807

5.8
5.7
5.6

2.3
2.2
2.2

14.2
14.1
13.8

1.4

April
May
June

111,473
111,293
111,880

104,901
105,091
105,561

25,161
25,179
25,265,

61.49
61.31
61.58

6,668
6,800
6,523

5.5
5.6
5.4

2.1
2.1
2.1

13.5
13.8
13.2

1.3
1.3

July
August
September

111,974
112,061
112,194

105,768
105,954
106,207

25,323
25,303
25,313

61.54
61.60
61.64

6,624
6,797
6,614

5.4
5.6
5.4

2.1
2.1
2.0

13.5
13.5
13.5

1.3
1.3
1.3

October
November
December

112,335
112,709
112,816

106,475
106,824
107,097

25,384
25,460
25,513

61.69
•61.85
61.83

6,518
6,563
6,554

5.3
5.4
5.3

2.0
2.0
2.0

13.4
12.6
12.8

1.3
1.2
1.2

January
February
March

113,411
113,630
113,930

107,442
107,711
107,888

25,626
25,629
25,646

62.13
62.16
62.27

6,716
6,328
1)6,128

5.4
5.1
1)5. 0

2.0
2.1
2.1

12.7
12.1
12.4

1.2
1.1
1.1

April
May . .
June

114,009
114,102
114,445

108,101
108,310
108,607

25,671
25,672
25,648

62.22
62.22
D62.35

6,546
6,395
6,561

5.3
5.2
5.3

2.1
E>2.0
2.1

12.7
11.8

1.2
1.1
E>1.0

2.2
2.1
2.1

12.0
11.3
11.4

1.2
1.1
1.1

2.2
2.2

11.8
11.7

1.1
1.2

1988

1.4
1.4

1.3

1989

July
August
September
October
November
December . . . . . . .

114,240
114,290
114,199

108,767
108,887
r!09,096

25,669
0)25,694
r25,614

62.26
62.28
62.16

6,497
6,421
6,584

5.2
5.2
5.3

114,327
1)114,644

r!09,189
[H)pl09,399

r25,607
p25,604

62.16
62.24

6,561
6,729

5.3
5.4

B>11.1

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 15, 17, and 18.
x
Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.

62



DECEMBER

1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

JJIJ PRODUCTION AND INCOME

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

Comprehensive Output and Income
'

C,C,C

C.C.C

50. Gross national product
in 1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C.C.C

52. Constant
(1982) dollars

51. Personal
income less
transfer payments in 1982
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. do!,)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Personal income
223. Current
dollars

Industrial Production
C, C, C

53. Wages and
salaries in 1982
dollars, mining,
mfg., and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C,C,C

47. Index of
industrial
production

(1977 = 100)

C,C,C

73. Index of
industrial
production,
durable manufactures

(1977 = 100)

C, L, L

74. Index of
industrial
production,
nondurable
manufactures

(1977 = 100)

C,C,C

49. Value of
goods output
in 1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1987

January .
February
March

3,783!6

3,640.8
3,680.2
3,699.8

3,109.1
3,129.4
3,132.8

2,650.6
2,670.7
2,675.2

542.4
541.6
544.6

126.2
127.1
127.4

129.3
130.8
131.5

132.7
132.9
133.7

1, 6 2 2 ^ 6

April
May
June

3,823^5

3,718.5
3,734.1
3,745.4

3,132.7
3,132.6
3,129.0

2,674.8
2,670.5
2,670.9

538.5
540.3
540.4

127.4
128.2
129.1

130.9
131.4
132.0

134.6
135.7
136.9

1,645^9

July .
August
September

3,872.*8

3,770.5
3,798.7
3,817.4

3,144.7
3,152.4
3,152.3

2,685.9
2,695.7
2,696.5

541.3
544.3
547.0

130.6
131.2
131.0

133.5
133.8
133.7

138.5
138.8
138.6

1, 679.1

October
November
December

3,935.*6

3,894.3
3,886.8
3,944.9

3,205.2
3,188.5
3,236.2

2,748.8
2,733.2
2,779.3

549.4
551.8
552.1

132.5
133.2
133.9

136.8
136.7
137.3

138.1
139.6
.141.3.

1,728^5

January
February
March

3,974!8

3,921.9
3,944.2
3,979.5

3,209.4
3,225.0
3,240.6

2,741.2
2,755.9
2,767.1

551.3
553.9
561.5

134.4
134.4
134.7

137.9
138.4
138.8

141.4
141.1
141.7

1,746 ".7

April
May
June

4,010.7

4,007.1
4,023.3
4,049.4

3,244.6
3,244.6
3,260.4

2,773.4
2,776.2
2,791.2

558.8
558.0
561.5

135.4
136.1
136.5

139.7
141.5
141.7

142.3
142.1
142.6

1,767^9

July
August
..
September

4 ,042 .*7

4,079.8
4,094.2
4,118.6

3,271.7
3,275.4
3,276.5

2,802.0
2,805.0
2,808.2

562.4
560.9
562.8

138.0
138.5
138.6

142.9
143.2
143.8

144.6
145.1
145.3

l,782.'i

October
November
December

4,069^4

4,180.4
4,168.9
4,206.3

3,312.5
3,298.2
•3,314.7

2,843.3
2,828.6
2,845.3

569.0
565.5
563.9

139.4
139.9
140.4

144.6
145.2
145.7

146.3
146.7
147.1

1,789^4

January
February
March

4,106.8

4,273.1
4,319.5
4,360.7

3,346.2
3,377.2
3,390.9

2,868.0
2,897.0
2,905.5

566.1
566.7
572.3

140.8
140.5
140.7

146.2
145.9
145.8

148.5
148.1
148.6

1,823^2

April
May
June

•4,1321.5

4,387.1
4,396.3
4,417.5

3,390.3
3,384.4
3,398.1

2,908.2
2,902.8
2,912.8

566.4
563.4
565.3

141.7
141.6
142.0

146.9
147.1
147.4

149.6
149.5
150.5

1,843°.9

H>r4,162.'9

r4,443.7
r4,456.9
r4, 467.1

r3,407.7
r3,420.5
r3,420.4

r2,922.6
r2, 932.1
r2,930.2

566.3
570.2
r569.6

141.9
!>rl42.5
r!42.1

146.8
H)rl47.8
rl.46.9

150.8
r!51.1
r!51.2

Drl,85i'.3

r4,503.2
[H>p4, 541.0

r3, 427.1
E>p3,442.8

r2,937.4
IR>p2,949.7

0)r572.5
p567.9

r!41.3
p!41.5

r!44.3
p!45.1

K>rl52.0
p!51.7

1988

1989

July
August
September
October
November
December

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40.

!!€!»

DECEMBER 1989




63

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

H

PRODUCTION AND
INCOME-Continued

CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES

Capacity Utilization

Orders and Deliveries

L, L, L

L, C, U

L, C, U

82. Capacity
utilization rate,
manufacturing

84. Capacity
utilization rate,
materials

Year
and
month

Manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
6. Current
dollars

(Percent)

(Percent)

L, L, L

7. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

L, L, L

8. Manufacturers' new
orders in 1982
dollars, consumer goods
and materials
(Bil. dol.)

L, L, L

25. Change in
manufacturers'
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries i

(Bil. dol.)

L, Lg, U

96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries

(Bil. dol.)

L, L, L

32. Vendor
performanceslower deliveries
diffusion index l

(Percent)

1987
January
February
March

79.6
80.0
80.3'

78.7
78.7
78.7

97.34
102.40
104.78

89.79
94.46
96.40

79.68
84.09
84.78

-3.28
-1.26
1.19

367.42
366.16
367.35

51.5
51.2
51.9

April
May
June

80.2
80.4
80.8

79.1
79.3
79.8

107.64
107.92
108.77

98.93
99.01
99.70

83.76
83.48
85.66

4.55
5.26
4.24

371.90
377.16
381.40

52.8
54.0
56.8

July
August
September

81.5
81.5
81.3

80.6
81.1
81.2

109.94
106.99
109.68

100.40
97.44
99.34

84.02
83.84
85.98

6.04
2.58
1.30

387.44
390.02
391.32

58.9
60.3
61.5

October
November
December

82.0
82.2
82.6

82.1
82.9
83.6

112.02
111.96
113.19

101.28
100.96
101.61

86.81
85.89
86.86

3.71
3.67
2.01

395.04
398.71
400.72

62.2
64.9
62.7

January
February
March

82.7
82.6
82.7

83.0
82.3
82.4

113.07
114.16
113.06

100.86
101.56
100.41

83.26
85.42
85.34

3.94
4.33
0.32

404.66
408.99
409.31

62.4
61.3
56.9

April
May
June

82.9
83.3
83.3

82.9
83.0
83.2

116.84
115.37
125.44

103.39
101.74
110.23

85.73
87.82
87.78

4.32
0.62
8.92

413.62
414.24
423.16

59.2
56.6
65.6

July
August
September

84.0
84.0
84.0

84.4
84.3
84.1

116.11
122.81
119.32

101.67
107.25
103.58

85.15
87.58
87.98

2.99
4.94
1.29

426.15
431.09
432.38

59.0
57.7
55.1

October
November
December

84.3
84.4
84.4

84.7
D85.1
84.9

122.79
123.04
D 132. 15

106.50
106.25
D113.63

87.86
89.81
[H>92.68

4.35
3.16
7.97

436.73
439.90
447.87

54.6
51.6
52.6

H>84.7
84.3
84.1

84.6
84.0
83.7

128.48
124.11
125.38

109.81
105.71
106.61

90.76
89.02
86.32

4.90
3.18
4.94

452.77
455.95
460.90

54.0
53.3
51.2

84.5
84.3
84.4

84.2
83.8
83.6

129.37
123.52
125.14

110.01
104.68
105.69

89.69
87.82
86.81

6.04
0.56
3.42

466.94
467.50
470.92

53.2
49.3
47.5

July
August
September

84.0
r84.2
83.7

83.7
r83.9
r83.5

122.03
126.77
r!25.23

r!03.15
107.07
r!05.06

r82.82
90.68
r87.85

4.92
-1.58
rO.83

475.83
474.25
r475.09

46.9
44.9
43.8

October
November
December

82.8
p82.7

83.2
p82.9

r!24.35
p!30.68

r!04.41
p!09.63

r87.58
p89.54

r2.44
p6.98"

r477.53
[H)p484.51

42.7
42.5

1988

1989
January
February
March
April
May
June

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 21.
lr

These series reached high values before 1987: series 25 (9.31) in March 1984 and series 32 (67.5) in November 1983.

64



DECEMBER 1989

liCi

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process

Formation of Business Enterprises

Consumption and Trade

Timing Class

C, C, C

c, c, c

Manufacturing and trade sales
Year
and
month

FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT

CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES— Continued

56. Current
dollars

(Mil. dol.)

57. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Mil. dol.)

C, L, C

75, Index of
industrial
production,
consumer
goods

C, L, U

U, L,U

Sales of retail stores
54. Current
dollars

(Mil. dol.)

(1977 = 100)

59. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Mil. dol.)

L, C T C

L, L, L

L, L, L

55. Personal
consumption
expenditures,
automobiles

58. Index of
consumer
sentiment 1 2

12. Index of
net business
formation

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

13. Number of
new business
incorporations 1

®
(IstQ
1966 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(Number)

1987
January
February
March

424,210
441,092
441,073

419,538
433,469
431,581

125.5
126.4
126.7

117,819
124,126
124,455

109,294
114,507
114,179

11SL5

90.4
90.2
90.8

118.1
120.5
122.0

55,348
58,495
60,248

April
May
June

442,281
445,174
448,931

431,209
432,439
433,700

125.5
127.3
127.2

125,353
125,520
127,263

114,478
114,317
115,274

.129.'3

92.8
91.1
91.5

120.7
119.8
120.3

57,471
56,226
57,613

July
August
September

450,906
455,157
460,280

434,938
437,381
440,943

128.9
129.4
127.7

128,110
130,390
129,427

115,937
117,574
116,391

145.8

93.7
94.4
93.6

120.4
121.5
122.8

57,330
57,650
57,568

October
November
December

460,066
459,261
462,059

439,739
437,546
439,273

129.0
129.4
129.8

128,235
128,541
129,870

115,112
115,180
116,267

132.0

89.3
83.1
86.8

121.8
122.8
123.2

55,504
56,681
55,226

January
February
March

462,173
466,052
474,260

439,102
442,538
448,078

131.2
131.3
131.2

130,364
131,846
133,797

116,709
118,036
119,249

143.' 6

90.8
91.6
94.6

124.0
124.1
125.4

56,108
56,475
60,655

April
May
June

475,218
478,467
486,226

446,585
447,726
451,956

131.9
132.7
133.0

133,077
134,003
135,060

118,081
118,482
119,311

145.7

91.2
94.8
94.7

122.7
124.3
123.7

54,670
58,046
55,620

July
August
September

486,289
491,892
491,565

449,198
452,694
450,672

134.2
135.0
134.8

135,741
135,800
135,421

119,490
119,227
118,375

140 ! 9

93.4
97.4
97.3

123.3
124.5
124.2

56,915
59,730
r55,915

October
November
December

r498,635
r501,391
506,186

r456 9 109
r456,929
459,688

136.4
136.8
138.2

r!38 9 259
r!39,520
139,189

r!20,435
r!21,427
120,719

146^6

94.1
93.0
91.9

124.6
123.2
125.5

56,557
54,530
58,516

January
February
March

511,881
507,328
507,555

458,846
454,219
451,603

138.5
138.7
138.4

140,040
139,428
139,516

120,724
120,300
119,756

142.7

97.9
95.4
94.3

125.5
125.9
0)128.0

58,499
58,724
60,133

April
May
June

517,745
518,088
515,695

458,774
457,465
456,223

139.5
139.2
D139.9

141,413
142,543
142,500

120,351
120,902
120,865

144,5

91.5
90.7
90.6

125.0
125.6
125.9

55,245
57,738
57,536

July
August
September

511,144
|H)526,290
r522,760

r45 1,983
0)r466,307
r462,699

138.7
r!39.3
138.9

143,555
144,860
|H)rl45,293

121,657
123,390
E)rl23,548

E>rl50.'9

92.0
89.6
95.8

124.4
r!24.0
r!22.8

54,478
r56,642
p54,502

October
November
December

p519,226
(NA)

p457,690
(NA)

r!39.5
p!39.2

r!43,358
p!44,557

r!21,387
p!21,989

93.9
90.9

r!23.4
p!23.6

(NA)

1988

.

1989

See note on page 60.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 22, and 23.
lr

These series reached high values before 1987: series 58 (101.0) in March 1984 and series 13 (65,318) in December 1986.
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the University of Michigan's
Survey Research Center.
2




65

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
BI

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

jm FIXED CAPITAL IIWESTMENT-Continued

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Business Investment Commitments

1,1,1.

LL, L

Manufacturers' new orders,
nondefense capital goods industries

Contracts and orders for
plant and equipment
Year
and
month

20. Constant
(1982) dollars

10. Current
dollars

(Bil. dol.)

L, L, L

L, L,L

(Bil. dol.)

27. Constant
(1982) dollars

24. Current
dollars

(Bil. dol.)

,

(Bil. dol.)

L, C, U

U, Lg, U

9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial buildings1 2
Square feet of
floor space

(Millions)

Square meters of
floor space 3

(Millions)

11. Newly
approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations

(Bil. dol.)

C, Lg, Lg

97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing
corporations

(Bil. dol.)

1987

January
February
March

31.78
31.99
31.99

35.45
36.31
36.21

27.20
27.28
26.88

31.40
32.18
31.73

82.42
73.52
77.97

7.66
6.83
7.24

21^44

April
May
June

33.63
34.90
35.47

38.58
39.88
40.28

28.73
30.63
29.75

34.29
36.16
35.30

79.93
78.82
83.17

7.43
7.32
7.73

32 '.26

July
August
September

37.49
35.01
34.52

42.82
40.28
40.00

32.28
29.85
29.39

38.32
35.82
35.57

83.00
83.56
84.70

7.71
7.76
7.87

29 '.56

82.21
76.89
81.64

7.64
7.14
7.58

35.91

69.17

74.64

74^55

35.60
35.44
38.27

41.11
40.29
42.96

30.22
30.66
33.03

36.45
36.19
38.44

January
February
March

38.31
39.54
36.82

43.68
44.64
41.78

33.87
33.82
31.92

39.89
39.79
37.65

77.27
91.15
75.85

7.18
8.47
7.05

30^85

April
May
June

38.95
36.29
40.68

44.85
41.88
46.20

33.75
31.52
35.46

40.45
37.85
41.78

71.02
71.69
75.36

6.60
6.66
7.00

4o!69

July
August
September

41.18
44.39
39.82

46.51
49.91
44.12

36.21
38.81
34.86

42.35
45.25
39.99

79.51
75.38
73.37

7.39
7.00
6.82

40 '.38

October
November
December

39.34
r40.48
43.67

44.09
r44.94
47.97

34.62
35.82
39.43

40.16
41.07
44.44

70.06
69.90
78.53

6.51
6.49
7.30

45 '.28

January
February
March

45.03
41.48
42.64

49.10
44.81
47.67

40.35
37.19
38.14

45.24
41.31
44.02

78.61
70.87
71.37

7.30
6.58
6.63

K>p5o;6i

April
May
June

44.55
41.90
44.07

48.87
46.30
48.00

40.39
37.29
39.15

45.48
42.54
43.98

69.66
75.44
78.18

6.47
7.01
7.26

July
August
September

E>45.99
41.68
r40.68

D49.92
46.81
r46.61

D41.44
37.13
r35.34

ED 46. 22
43.14
r42.31

77.79
66.89
85.52

7.23
6.21
7.94

October
November
December

r40.99
p43.18

r45.94
p47.80

r35.99
p38.99

r41.91
p44.43

74.73
64.06

6.94
5.95

October
November
December

78.06

1988

78'.71

87^46

9l!57

100^20

1989

[H>pll4'.55

(NA)
(NA)

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24.
lr
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. 2Series 9 reached its high value (93.19 square feet and 8.66 square meters) in September 1985. Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

66



DECEMBER

1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Jl FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued
il

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

C, Lg, Lg

C, Lg, Lg

Expenditures for new plant
and equipment
Year
and
month

Residential Construction
Commitments and Investment

Business Investment Expenditures

61. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bii. dot.)

100. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C, Lg, Lg

69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and
business
construction
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C, Lg, U

76. Index of
industrial production, business equipment

(1977 = 100)

C, Lg, C

Lg, Lg, Lg

C, Lg, C

28. New private housing
units startedr

Gross private nonresidential
fixed investment in 1982 dollars
86. Total

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

87. Structures 1

L, L, L

88. Producers'
durable equipment

L, L, L

29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits 1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
thous.)

(1967 = 100)

L, L, L

89. Gross private residential
fixed investment
in 1982 dollars1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1987

January
February
March

377.09

380 '.62

381.31
391.14
387.97

138.6
141.7
141.9

430.9

120.1

310.7

1,840
1,787
1,715

134.8
134.7
135.9

197! 3

April
May
June

380 ! 08

383 !55

394.77
393.41
402.62

142.1
141.7
144.2

445^6

117°.7

327 '.9

1,622
1,607
1,583

127.7
119.6
121.4

197 '.8

July
August
September

393.05

40ll6l

412.10
410.61
424.92

145.6
145.6
146.3

472 '.8

125 !5

347 '.3

1,592
1,587
1,685

120.9
120.5
120.7

192.1

October
November
December

403°.%

41l!67

416.91
417.04
423.21

148.7
148.3
149.8

472 '.7

125.7

347 '.6

1,535
1,659
1,391

115.4
116.2
107.3

191.*9

January
February
March

413.34

417!63

432.80
432.06
438.93

151.2
152.4
153.3

483 '. 6

121.8

361.8

1,391
1,511
1,528

100.8
115.2
119.6

189.1

April
May
June

427^54

431.35

445.06
454.15
456.32

154.6
156.9
158.1

497.8

122.5

375.1

1,576
1,392
1,463

114.1
115.5
118.4

194.'2.

July
August
September

435*.61

436.04

458.73
463.23
463.95

159.3
160.2
160.8

501.°6

123.0

378.0

1,478
1,459
1,463

113.6
116.9
114.2

195 !l

October
November
December

442. i
i

433^1

463.94
462.23
465.80

160.2
161.2
162.6

492.7

121.4

371.3

1,532
1,567
1,577

121.7
120.3
121.1

198*. 1

January
February
March

459!47

451.35

475.20
475.31
485.30

163.8
165.0
1,66.3

5oi'.6

12i'.l

379'.9

1,678
1,465
1,409

118.5
111.9

195*.6

April
May
June

470^86

r463*.49

487.01
487.06
490.84

167.8
169.1
169.6

511.4

1>484.93

D476.92

484.04
|H>509.02
r504.04

ra485.45
(2)

ra476.84
(3)

1988

19S9

July
August
September
October
November
December

p486.27
(NA)

168.5
Drl69.9 . [H>r517!9
r!68.7
r!64.1
p!66.2

98.1

118.1

393.2

1 S 343
1 S 308
1,406

106.4
107.4
104.3

189.3

r!20.4

E>r397.6

1,420
1,329
rl,264

102.2
105.9
105.2

r!84*.8

rl,428
pl,361

108.1
107.0

See note on page 60.

graphs of these series are showsi on pages 13, 24, and 25.
1
These series reached high values before 1987: series 87 (151.4) in 2d Q 1985, series 28 (2,260) and series 29 (158.5) in February 1984,
and series 89 (200.3) in 4th Q 1986. Anticipated expenditures for 1990: 1st quarter, 503.46; 2d quarter, 518.27. Anticipated expenditures for 1990: 1st quarter, 491.41; 2d quarter, 503.86.

1989



67

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

|
H INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class . . . . . .

Year
and
month

Inventories on Hand and on Order

Inventory Investment

L, L, L

30. Change in
business inventories in 1982
dollars 1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

1, L, L

36. Change in mfg. and trade
inventories on hand and on
order in 1982 dollars1
Smoothed 2

Actual
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

31. Change
in mfg. and
trade inventories

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

38. Change in
mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order

(Bil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

Manufacturing and trade
inventories
71. Current
dollars

(Bil. dol.)

70. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Bil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

65. Manufacturers' inventories,
finished
goods

(Bil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

L, Lg, Lg

77. Ratio,
mfg. and
trade inventories to
sales in
1982 dollars1

78. Mfrs.'
inventories,
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order

(Ratio)

(Bil. dol.)

1987

is!i

April
May
June

15\3

16.15

-2.36

1.92

0.48
9.83

64.1
21.3
35.1

-1.06
-0.59

32.38

January
February
March

14.81
47.64
35.65

16.59
23.99
32.16

26.7
69.3
34.0

1.82

659.20
660.97
663.90

644.61
644.61
645.70

103.41
103.02
103.23

1.54
1.49
1.50

236.33
235.74
237.56

2.82
1.09
2.71

666.12
671.89
674.73

645.85
648.83
649.82

102.94
103.23
102.57

1.50
1.50
1.50

240.38
241.47
244.17

July
August
September

6.8

31.80
-3.77
44.10

35.53
29.80
22.64

32.7
3.9
44.9

2.76
1.75
2.20

677.45
677.78
681.52

651.04
649.93
652.18

103.84
104.66
104.04

1.50
1.49
1.48

246.94
248.68
250.88

October
November
December

56^6

75.32
41.99
51.71

31.30
46.18
55.07

90.8
64.5
75.5

2.18
1.02
1.04

689.09
694.47
700.76

657.41
660.63
664.72

105.04
105.86
106.82

1.50
1.51
1.51

253.06
254.08
255.11

January
February
March

3.24

34.*3

37.39

44.33
31.55
22.94

39.3
46.2
36.6

3.81
0.25
1.32

704.03
707.89
710.94

666.50
669.06
670.20

107.42
108.16
108.08

1.52
1.51
1.50

258.92
259.18
260.49

April
May
June

2l!5

22.64
22.33

15.38
13.19
13.68

43.8
47.0
72.1

2.52
2.83
2.21

714.59
718.51
724.52

671.42
673.13
675.32

108.09
108.43
109.02

1.50
1.50
1.49

263.01
265.83
268.04

July
August
September

-8.81
39.50
35.16

14.34
14.86
19.81

1.43

37°.5

D91.5

729.79
737.41
743.97

674.74
678.75
681.92

109.82
110.78
111.62

1.50
1.50
1.51

269.47
273.45
275.93

-17.99
23.03
59.40

20.42
16.14
17.44

83.5

-0.42
-0.84

r743.00
746.76
753.72

681.28
683.35
687.97

112.07
112.69
113.93

1.49
1.50
1.50

277.82
277.41
276.56

18.66
-6.58
-20.08

27.59
28.76
10.58

73.0
39.0
29.4

1.74
0.31
1.61

759.80
763.05
765.50

691.10
690.75
690.50

115.38
115.66
115.36

1.51
1.52
1.53

278.30
278.61
280.22

5.66
4.37

-4,83
-5.18

0.14

17.78

2.96

70.0
81.0
32.5

-0.77
-0.12

771.34
778.09
780.80

691.15
693.00
694.54

115.92
117.05
117.85

1.51
1.51
1.52

280.36
279.59
279.48

r8.77
r7.60
r-35.10

r9.79
rlO.84
r2.57

81.4
33.4
r2.4

-0.63
r-0.92

787.58
790.37
r790.57

r696.96
|H>r699.04
r697.01

119.02
119.19
[H)rl20.17

1.54
1.50

rl.51

[H)282.85
282.22
r281.29

plS.Ol

p-5.54

p40.0

pO.74

[H>p793.91

p698.65

p!20.03

pi. 53

(NA)

(NA)

1988

4.68
4.88

October . . .
November
December

1&\3

63.3
78.6

r-11.5
r45.0

D3.98
2.48
1.90

1989

January
February
March

24^5

April
May
June

19.1

July
August
September
October
November
December

r21°.9

(NA)

(NA)

3.37

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

p282.03
(NA)

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 26, and 27.
lr
These series reached high values before 1987: series 30 (83.4) in 1st Q 1984, series 36 actual (92.33) in February 1984, series 36
smoothed (79.84) in May 1984, and series 77 (1.58) in March 1986. 2This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1)
placed on the terminal month of the span.




1989

HOI

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS . .

Ill

Minor Economic
Process

Stock
Prices

Sensitive Commodity Prices

Timing Class

L, L, L

L, L, L

U, L, L

L, L, L

98. Change in
producer prices
for sensitive
crude and
intermediate
materials x

23. Index of
spot market
prices, raw
industrial,
materials2 (u)

99. Change in sensitive materials
prices1

(Percent)

Year
and
month

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

(1967 = 100)

Smoothed 3

Actual

(Percent)

(Percent)

19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks ©

(1941-43 = 10)

Profits and Profit Margins

L, L, L

L, L, L

Corporate profits after tax
16. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

18. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L,C,L

L,C,L

Corporate profits after tax
with IVA and CCAdj *
79. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

80. Constant
(1982) dollars1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, L, L

22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after
tax to corporate domestic
income1
(Percent)

1987

264.51
280.93
292.47

m.k

117\B

164 ,*9

15K8

i!e

0.76

1.27
1.07
0.92

253.8
272.6
276.4

2.09
2.30
1.11

0.98
1.20
1.31

289.32
289.12
301.38

139 '.4

124!7

169 '.8

155!5

i',8

1.66
1.47
3.31

284.2
288.3
292.4

1.43
1.10
0.72

1.39
1.40
1.32

310.09
329.36
318.66

14SL3

133!6

18o!3

166.1

5!6

2.65
1.06
0.00

294.6
292.0
293.1

0.30

-1.28

280.16
245.01
240.96

148 ! 9

13l!-9

180 ! 9

164!9

i!7

0.49

1.13
0.70
0.41

0.90
0.89
1.11

292.5
288.9
292.3

0.78
0.36
1.19

0.30
0.24
0.33

250.48
258.13
265.74

159^9

14L8

189 !i

17i.°7

5!2

-0.22
-0.22

297.3
301.6
309.5

0.80
0.41
1.25

0.45
0.51
0.65

262.61
256.12
270.68

166^9

147!3

187.6

167!8

s'.i

309.0
309.9
306.4

0.05
0.15

0.65
0.58
0.44

269.05
263.73
267.97

173 '.2

DIBI'.S

189.7

168!e

5.*4

-0.14

0.27
0.40
0.54

277.40
271.02
276.51

[H>175! 6

isi!i

D196!9

172.°3

5.*3

173.6

147!5

171.°9

145.8

5.'2

January
February
March

0.44
0.53
0.79

252.8
247.2
246.3

-0.25

April
May
June

0.43
2.25
1.69

July
August
September
October
November
December

1.12

1988

January
February
March
April
May
June .

0.00

July
August
September
October
November
December

1.47

-0.22
-0.22
-0.36

305.0
309.7
317.2

-0.25

0.36
0.22

January
February
March

1.52
0.36
0.71

324.7
329.3
334.6

1.41
1.40
0.69

0.75
0.95
1.04

285.41
294.01
292.71

April
May ."
June

0.21
0.78

i>335.0
330.5
329.1

-0.80
-0.89
-0.58

0.84
0.49
0.15

302.25
313.93
323.73

161.1

133!2

172*.9

145*. 6

i!7

326.7
325.0
327.0

r-0.85
r-0.65
0.45

r-0.19
r-0.45
r-0.48

331.93
346.61
347.33

r!52.*4

rl23!6

r!72!e

r!43'.8

4.'. 2

325.7
314.2
301.8

-0.17
-2.10

-0.46
-0.66

H> 347. 40
340.22
6
348.24

1.96
0.94

1989

July
August
September
October
November
December

-0.77
r-0.42
r-0.64
0.29
0.64

-1.55
5

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29.
1
These series reached high values before 1987: series 98 (3.55) in July 1983, series 99 actual (3.21) in Aug. 1983 and smoothed (2.09) in
Nov. 1983, series 22 ( . ) in 1st Q 1984, and series 80 (190.3) in 3d Q 1985. 2This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not
69
be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. 3This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average
filter developed by Statistics Canada. ^See footnote 1 on p. 70. 5Average for Dec. 1-26. 6Average for Dec. 6, 13, 20, and 27.




1989

69

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

|
U PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued

Minor Economic
Process

Profits and Profit Margins— Continued

Timing Class

U, L, L

L, L, L

81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after
tax with IVA
and CCAdj to
corp. domestic
income 1 2

15. Profits after
taxes per dollar
of sales, manufacturing corporations

26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit
labor cost,
nonfarm business sector 2

(Percent)

Year
and
month

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share

Cash Flows

L, L, L

(Cents)

(1977 = 100)

L, L, L

L, L, L

Corporate net cash flow
34. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

U, Lgf Lg

63. Index of
unit labor cost,
business sector

35. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(1977 = 100)

Lg, Lg, Lg

68. Labor cost
per unit of real
gross domestic
product, nonfinancial corporations
(Dollars)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

62. Index of labor cost per unit
of output, manufacturing
Actual data

(1977 = 100)

Actual data
as a percent
of trend
(Percent)

64. Compensation of employees as a
percent of national income

(Percent)

1987

January
February
March

e!2

i.'s

98.1

383^2

378!6

171.2

0.731

138.6
138.0
138.3

101.0
100.6
100.8

April
May
June

5.0

98.8

394!l

389 !l

171.3

0.727

137.2
136.9
136.6

100.0

6\2

July
August
September

6*.5

5.5

99.3

404 ! 7

400 ! 8

171.6

0.726

135.6
136.6
138.0

October
November
December

6°.l

4.4

98.6

407*. 6

403 !l

173!5

0.734

99.8
99.6
98.8
99.6

73!7

73L5

73!3

100.6

137.1
137.3
136.8

100.1

99.9
73.1

99.7

1988

January
February
March

98*.9

419!6

412!5

173!5

0.732

137.2
137.7
139.2

100.0
100.4
101.5

73.*2

s'.9

98.3

426!2

419!9

176.9

0.740

138.1
137.7
138.5

100.7
100.4
100.9

73.*2

e!i

5*.9

98.6

431 '.1

E>424'.9

178.0

0.746

137.7
137.6
138.4

100.4
100.3
100.9

73 '.3

6*.2

r5.8

99 °.l

E>43l!6

421 '.8

180.2

0.756

139.9
138.9
138.2

102.0
101.2
100.7

73!i

5!!

5.*9

98! 2

426! 9

416.5

181.9

0.768

138.4
139.2
141.1

100.9
101.5
102.8

73!2

5,2

r4.9

98.2

412.2

401.9

184.1

0.778

139.2
139.2
139.3

101.5
101.5
101.5

73.4

5!6

p4.9

r98.2

r405.6

r394.9

0>rl85.5

0)0.783

6A

HK2

6^3

July
August
September
October
November
December

April

May
June

1989

January
February
March
April

May
June
July
August . . . . . . . . .
September
October
November
December

139.9

102.0

r!40.1
r!40.6

r!02.1
r!02.5

B)rl43.3
pHl.8

H>rl04.4
p!03.4

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 29 and 30.
X
IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
2
These series reached high values before 1987: series 81 ( . ) in 3d Q 1985 and series 26 (99.8) in 3d Q 1985.
86

70



DECEMBER 1989

H)74'.b

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

MONEY AND CREDIT

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

Money

L, L,L

L, C, U

85. Change
in money
supply Ml1

102. Change
in money
supply M21

(Percent)

(Percent)

Velocity of Money

L, L,L

L, L, L

104. Change
in total liquid
assets x

(Percent)

L, L, L

105. Money
supply Ml in
1982 dollars

106. Money
supply M2 in
1982 dollars

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

C,C,C

107. Ratio,
gross national
product to
money supply
Ml1

(Ratio)

Credit Flows

C, Lg, C

108. Ratio,
personal income
to money supply
M2

(Ratio)

U,L

33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by financial
institutions and
life insurance
companies1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L, U

112. Net change
in business loans

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1987
0.68
0.16
0.38

2,449.7
2,439.5
2.432.0

5.992

1.287
1.301
1.306

0 40
0 04
0 09

0.25
0.66
0.39

[H}636.8
635.9
629.8

2,431.2
2,423.8
2,419.7

1.307
1.312
1.315

-5.75

6.014

0 29
0 47
0 55

0 13
0 59

629.5
629 2
629.5

2,420.5
2,421.6
2,428.7

6.126

1.320
1.324
1.323

-22.62
-29.33
28.15

0 60

0 74

0.07
0.18

0.21
0.06

635 3
630.9
628.0

2,435.2
2,428.6
2,429.0

6.182

1.342
1.338
1.356

29.58
-8.88
34,34

0.81
0.22
0.49

0.71
0.69
0.63

0.84
0.69
0.68

630.4
630.8
631.8

2S436.0
2,448.8
25456.2

6.230

1.338
1.337
1.340

63.36
73.18
19.81

0.97

October
. . . . .
November
December

632.7
631.0
630.7

1 26
-0.36
-0.30

July
August
September

0.69
0.27
0.00

0 20
0 38
0 31

April
May
June

0.65
0.01
0.12

1 40
0 20
-0 71

January
February
March

0.70
0.32
0.44

0.87
0.64
0.38

634.7
632.0
634.4

2,461.2
2,458.9
0)2,461.7

6.260

1.340
1.341
1.344

94.69
15.76
28.42

0.36
0.20
0.17

rO 98
0.41
0.18

636.7
634.5
633.0

2,460.5
2,457.3
2,451.6

6.293

1.349
1.351
1.357

33.38
14.70
-21.98

0.24
0.57
0.33

0.46
0.57
0.79

631.4
630.8
631.7

2,445.6
2,453.5
2,453.7

6.372

1.374
1.363
1.370

36.38
15.43
80.89

625.0
T623.5
619.6

r2, 437.1
2,430.2
2,425.9

6.499

1.394
1.407
1.417

89.27
91.34
40.09

0.54

612.8
r601.9
598.5

r2,410.7
r2,390.9
2,399.4

6.707

1.424
1.431
1)1.431

52.54
0)123.64
26.44

r602.5
602.6
604.6

r2,416.7
2,431.4
r2,442. 6

r6.783

rl.425
1.421
rl.415

13.90
r88.30
r-26.64

r606.9
p605.8

r2,447.2
p2,453.1

rl.418
pi. 420

r-2.42
p!5.26

0.72

(NA)

97.22 ;
-19.66
-16.76

2.48

10.79

1988

January
February
March
April
May
June

-0 01
0.70

July
August
September

0 77
-0 01

October
November
December

0.22
0.15

0.17

0 47

1989

January
February
March

-0.51
rO.15
r-0.15

-0.12
rO.ll
0.30

0.09
0.28
0.75

April
May
June

r-0.39
-1.25
r-0.40

rO.08
-0.28

-0.08

0.51

0.27

July
August
September

rO 90
rO.03
0 48

rO 96
0.61

0.72
0.41

0 62

rO.25

October
November
December

rO.84
pO.29
2
0.56

0.65

pO.58

pO 71

(NA)

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32.
x
The following series reached their high values before 1987: series 85 (2.66) in December 1986, series 102 (2.67) in January 1983,
series 104 (1.20) in March 1984, series 107 (7.034) in 4th quarter 1984, and series 33 (143.70) in September 1984.
2
Average for weeks ended December 4 and 11.

etui

DECEMBER 1989




71

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued
|

Minor Economic
Process

Credit Difficulties

Credit Flows— Continued

Timing Class

L, L, L

113. Net change
in consumer
installment
credit 1

Year
and
month

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L,U

111. Change in
business and
consumer credit
outstanding 1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

L.L.L

110. Funds
raised by private
nonfinancial
borrowers in
credit markets 1
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)

L,L,L

14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures 1 ©

(Mil. dol.)

Bank Reserves

L,L,L

39. Percent
of consumer
installment
loans delinquent 30 1days
and over

(Percent)

interest Rates

L,U,U

L, Lg, U

93. Free 1
reserves ©

94. Member
bank borrowings from the
Federal
Reserve1©

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

L, Lg, Lg

119. Federal
funds rate1©

(Percent)

C, Lg, Lg

114. Discount
rate on new
issues of 91-day
Treasury bills1©

(Percent)

1987

-19.58
19.61
27.43

3.6
1.5
3.8

409,432

3,220.7
3 S 586.0
3,249.5

2.43
2.40
2.28

488
656
388

580
556
527

6.43
6.10
6.13

5.45
5.59
5 56

April
May
June

48.20
20.78
66.72

5.5
5.4
8.1

633,288

3 $ 222.5
2,488.5
3,332.4

2.36
2.43
2.35

-166
44
414

993
1,035
776

6.37
6.85
6.73

5 76
5 75
5 69

July
August
September

62.99
36.48
61.64

4.8
2.8

566,400

10.1

2,036.1
1,968.2
2,967.2

2.34
2.37
2.35

89
385
-147

672
647
940

6.58
6 73
7 22

5 78
6 00
6 32

October
November
December

25 76
14.66
63 38

603,688

16 2

3 004 2
1,663.5
3 985 0

2 66
2.54
2 47

186
298
252

943
625
777

7 29
6 69
6 77

6 40
5 81
5 80

January
February
March

86.20
65.77
57.44

10.6
6.7

r521,412

3,894.1
4,625.5
3,291.7

2.44
2.32
2.19

213
737
-823

1,082
396
1,752

6.83
6.58
6.58

5.90
5 69
5.69

April
May
June

40.96
46.15
64.86

11.3

r718,848

3,065.6
2,316.5
2,453.4

2.31
2.32
2.34

-2,134
-1,538
-2,195

2,993
2,578
3,083

6.87
7 09
7.51

5 92
6 27
6.50

July
August
September

16.45
65.51
22.68

8 3
11.1
r4.2

r596,048

4 582 8
2,291.2
3,555.5

2 45
2.38
2.42

-2 433
-2,288
-1,867

3 440
3 S 241
2,839

7 75
8.01
8.19

6 73
7.02
7.23

October
November
December

30 91
63 37
61 13

r7 3
r6 8
rlO 6

r629 576

rl 785 0
p2 047.5
p2 026 8

2 62
2 48
2 49

-1 237
-1 742
-676

2 299
2 861
1 716

8 30
8 35
8 76

7 34
7 68
8 09

January
February
March

(NA)
64.52
45.18

(NA)
11.8
7,2

r591,152

p2, 100.0
p2,316.1
p2, 948.0

2.32
2.42
2.39

-517
-333
-856

1,662
1,487
1,813

9.12
9.36
9.85

8.29
8.48
8.83

April
May
June

32.99
50.65
32.60

8.1
11.1

r584,120

p6,145.6
pi, 873. 2
p2, 186.0

2.35
2.34
2.30

-1,513
-689
-585

2,289
1,720
1,490

9.84
9.81
9.53

8.70
8.40
8.22

July
August
September

-6 06
31 88

p567 844

p4 073 4
p2 960 0
pi 751 2

2 86
2 73
2 88

272
210
245

694
675
693

9 24
8 99
9 02

7 92
7 91
7 72

p2 223 9
(NA)

(NA)

465
p596

555

8 84

n"3AQ

0 CC

v7 fd
7 fiR

20 en

37 KQ

January
February
March

..

6 9

5.0

1988
7.2

7.4
8.3

1989

October .
November .
December .

v*1 fi 4.R

p40 02
(NA)

r4.3
1 9
6 6
n-l &
p-i. H

(NA)

See note on page 60.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 32, 33, and 34.
l
The following series reached their high values before 1987: series 113 (132.08) in September 1985; series 111 (23.2) in June 1984, series 110 (897,756) in 4th quarter 1985; series 14 (829.2) in July 1983; series 39 (1.78) in February 1984; and series 93 (-7,328), series
3
94 (8,017), series 119 (11.64), and series 114 (10.49) in August 1984. 2Average for weeks ended December 6, 13, and 20.
Average for
weeks ended December 7, 14, and 21.

72



DECEMBER 1989

ilCil

BY

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued

Minor Economic
Process

Outstanding Debt

Interest Rates— Continued

Timing Class

Lg, Lg, Lg

U, Lg, Lg

116. Yield on
new issues of
high-grade
corporate
bonds1©

115. Yield on
long-term
Treasury
bonds1®

117. Yield on
municipal
bonds, 20bond average1®

(Percent)

Year
and
month

C, Lg, Lg

(Percent)

(Percent)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

118. Secondary
market yields
onFHA
mortgages1®

67. Bank rates
on short-term
business
loans1®

(Percent)

(Percent)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

109. Average
prime rate
charged by
banks1®

66. Consumer
installment
credit outstanding

(Percent)

(Mil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

Commercial and industrial
loans outstanding
72. Current
dollars

(Mil. dol.)

101. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Mil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

95. Ratio,
consumer installment credit
outstanding
to personal
income
(Percent)

1987
January
February
March

8.59
8.58
8.68

7.60
7.69
7.62

6.61
6.61
6.66

8.79
8.81
8.94

7^46

7.50
7.50
7.50

570,415
572,049
574 9 335

366,883
365,245
363,848

365,058
361,629
359,534

15.67
15.54
15.52

April
May
June

9.36
9.95
9.64

8.31
8.79
8.63

7.55
8.00
7.79

10.02
10.61
10.33

8^24

7.75
8.14
8.25

578,352
580,084
585,644

363,369
363,576
364,475

356,594
354,363
353,859

15.55
15.53
15.64

9.70
10.09
10.63

8.70
8.97
9.58

7.72
7.82
8.26

10.38
10.55
11.22

8° 20

8.25
8.25
8.70

590,893
593,933
599,070

362,590
360,146
362,492

350,329
346,961
349,558

15.67
15.64
15.69

10.80
10.09
10.22

9.61
8.99
9.12

8.70
7.95
7.96

10,90
10.76
10.63

8°.47

9.07
8.78
8.75

601,217
602,439
607,721

364,957
364,217
367,079

350,583
349,536
352,283

15.44
15.50
15.41

9.81
9.43
9.68

8.82
8.41
8.61

7.69
7.49
7.74

10.17
9.86
10.28

8^37

8.75
8.51
8.50

614,904
620,385
625,172

372,359
378,457
380,108

355,984
361,123
362,353

15.68
15.73
15.71

April
May . .
June . . . . . .

9,92
10.25
10.08

8.91
9.24
9.04

7.81
7.91
7.78

10.46
10.84
10.65

8^49

8.50
8.84
9.00

628,585
632,431
637,836

387,999
389,312
391,680

366,729
365,551
365,373

15.69
15.72
15.75

July
August
September

10.12
10.27
10.03

9.20
9.33
9.06

7.76
7.79
7.66

10.66
10.74
10.58

9^75

9.29
9.84
10.00

639,207
644,666
646,556

394,462
395,687
393,855

365,581
366,377
364,343

15.67
15.75
15.70

October
November
December

9.86
9.98
10.05

8.89
9.07
9.13

7.47
7.46
7.61

10.23
10.63
10.81

lo'.II

10.00
10.05
10.50

649,132
654,413
659,507

396,887
398,173
404,914

366,809
367,657
371,481

15.53
15.70
15.68

January
February
March

9.92
10.11
10.33

9.07
9.16
9.33

7,35
7,44
7,59

10.69
10.88
11.16

10^97

10.50
10,93
11.50

682,020
687,397
691,162

412,353
419,965
423,306

373,170
379,030
379,647

[H>15.96
15.91
15.85

April
May
June

10.11
9.82
9.24

9.18
8.95
8.40

7.49
7.25
7.02

10.88
10.55
10.08

ll!89

11.50
11.50
11.07

693,911
698,132
700,849

427,684
437,987
440,190

380,841
386,914
389,894

15.82
15.88
15.87

July
August
September

9.20
r9.09
9.29

8.19
8.26
8.31

6.96
7.06
7.26

9.61
9.95
9.94

10.78

10.98
10.50
10.50

r391,266
441,348
700,344
703,001 [R>r448,706 [H>r400,630
r446,486
r704,371
r397,583

15.76
15.77
r!5.77

7.22
7.14
6.98

9,73
9.69

10 '.50

r446,284
p447,556

p!5.72
(NA)

July
August
September
October
November
December

,

BBS

January
February
March

19S9

October
November
December .

2

9.04
9.20
9.19

2

8.15
8.03
8.00

3

4

10.50 Dp707,706
10.50
(NA)
10. 50

r395,993
p397,122

See note on page 60.
Graphs of th@s® seriss are shown m pages 15, 34, and 35.

x
The following series reached their high values before 1987: series 116 (14.49), series 115 (13.00), and series 117 (10.67) in June 1984;
series 118 (15.01) in May 1984; series 67 (13.29) in 3d quarter 1984; and series 109 (13.00) in August 1984. 2Average for weeks ended
December 1, 8, 15, and 22. 3Average for weeks ended December 7, 14, and 21. ''Average for December 1 through 27.




1989

73

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

H
U DIFFUSION INDEXES

Year
and
month

950. Eleven leading
indicator components
(series 1, 5, 8, 19, 20, 29,
32,83,92,99,106)

1-month
span

6-month
span

951. Four roughly
coincident indicator
components (series
41, 47, 51, 57)

952. Seven lagging
indicator components
(series 62, 77, 91, 95,
101, 109, 120)

961. Average weekly
hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers,
20 manufacturing
industries

962. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, 51
areas 1

963. Employees on
private nonagricultural
payrolls, 349
industries

1-month
span

6-month
span

25.0

78.6
35.7
42.9

57.1
57.1
57.1

80.0
17.5

67.5
72.5
85.0

88.2
35.3
52.0

69.6
82.4
78.4

55.6
59.3
61.0

67.3
65.8
64.8

1-month
span

6-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

1-month
span

6-month
span

1987

January
February
March

40.9
54.5
63.6

72.7
63.6
81.8

100.0
75.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

April
May
June

59.1
54.5
81.8

81.8
68.2
72.7

50.0
75.0
87.5

100.0
100.0
100.0

57.1
50.0
35.7

42.9
64.3
71.4

10.0
92.5
45.0

77.5
42.5
77.5

73.5
78.4
15.7

80.4
94.1
90.2

61.9
58.6
59.7

66.8
67.6
69.5

July
August
September

72.7

68^2

100.0
100.0

45.5

72.7
63.6
63.6

100.0
100.0
100.0

42.9
35.7
71.4

57.1
64.3
71.4

57.5
72.5
25.0

57.5
67.5
87.5

64.7
84.3
37.3

92.2
59.8
62.7

65.3
60.6
63.0

71.3
73.5
73.2

October
November
December

45.5
22.7
31.8

36.4
36.4
36.4

100.0
100.0
100.0

85.7
57.1
28.6

92.9

100.0

90.0
40.0
27.5

37.5
50.0
60.0

86.3
23.5

85.7

5.9

27.5
62.7
80.4

67.8
64.5
60.7

71.5
71.8
72.2

January . . .
February
March

40.9
63.6
59.1

31.8
45.5
86.4

100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

85.7
71.4
42.9

78.6
85.7
85.7

37.5
32.5
62.5

42.5
65.0
32.5

80.4
29.4
60.8

45.1
41.2
33.3

60.7
63.5
63.0

69.9
70.2
71.5

April
May
June

63.6
36.4
81.8

77.3
86.4
72.7

75.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

42.9
42.9
57.1

42.9
57.1
57.1

77.5
30.0
57.5

20.0
42.5
57.5

94.1
29.4
31.4

23.5
86.3
96.1

62.8
61.3
67.2

73.9
73.9
69.1

July
August . . .
September

31.8
54.5
45.5

59.1
63.6
45.5

75.0
100.0
75.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

42.9
71.4
57.1

35.7
78.6
71.4

52.5
27.5
80.0

62.5
47.5
32.5

70.6
20.6
76.5

66.7
82.4
25.5

63.6
58.0
55.4

70.2
74.6
73.5

October
November
December

40.9
40.9

100.0
75.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

64.3
85.7
50.0

85.7

100.0
100.0

52.5
45.0
22.5

45.0
35.0
60.0

72.5

68 . 2

77.3
50.0
36.4

70.6

40.2
37.3
68.6

63.9
68.2
64.6

73.9
74.5
75.8

January
February
March

72.7
22.7
18.2

54.5
36.4
22.7

75.0
50.0
75.0

100.0
100.0

78.6
85.7
71.4

100.0

70.0
55.0
40.0

32.5
32.5
30.0

29.4
41.2
45.1

43.1
30.4
17.6

68.3
60.5
61.0

75.1
69.5
68.2

April
May
June

72.7
18.2
40.9

18.2
31.8

21.4
57.1
42.9

71.4
42.9
28.6

85.0

35.0

92.2

45.1
49.0
36.3

58.2
55.6
59.7

66.0

r65.0
r35.0

7.8

r50.0

100.0
25.0
75.0

63.0
r57.9

July
August
September . . . . . . .

50.0
50.0

57.1

30.0
55.0
r57.5

p29.4

p45.5

55.6
57.4
r47.9

r58.5
p58.9

62.5
75.0
50.0

100.0

57.5

1988
62.5
87.5

5.9

1989

October
November
December

50.0
100.0
r25.0

36.4

r31.8
r31.8
p45.5

2

50.0
100.0

75.0
75.0

100.0
100.0
50.0
2

66.7

57.1
57.1

r42.9
35.7
3

70.0

85.7
78.6

3

60.0

5.0

70.0.

r40.0
p40.0

p37.5

56.9
62.7
35.3
r80.4

r!9.6
p41.2

P57.4
p59.0

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (u), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 36.
1
Figures are the percent of components declining.
2
Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.
3
Excludes series 77 and 95., for which data are not available.

74



DECEMBER

1989

HOI

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued

Year
and
month

964. Manufacturers'
new orders, 34
durable goods industries

1-month
span

9-month
span

965. Newly approved
capital appropriations
in 1982 dollars, 17
manufacturing
industries

1-quarter
span

966. Industrial production, 24 industries

4-Q moving
average

1-month
span

967. Spot market
prices, 13 raw
industrial materials ©

6-month
span

968. Stock prices, 500
common stocks1©

960. Net profits,
manufacturing, about
600 companies2©

1-month
span

9-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

(4-quarter span)

19S7

January
February
March

41.2
70.6
47.1

91.2
73.5
89.7

41

April
May
June

54.4
48.5
61.8

80.9
73.5
82.4

82

July
August
September

67.6
44.1
58.8

82.4
73.5
73.5

59

October
November
December

52.9
44.1
55.9

76.5
73.5
73.5

65

January
February
March

47.1
55.9
41.2

73.5
85.3
76.5

44

April
May
June

57.4
55.9
55.9

73.5
70.6
79.4

65

July
August
September

41.2
67.6
50.0

79.4
79.4
82.4

41

October
November
December

52.9
64.7
64.7

61.8
58.8
82.4

53

January
February
March

55.9
35.3
44.1

54.4
66.2
52.9

April
May
June

72.1
35.3
45.6

55.9
38.2

91.7
89.6
75.0

84.6
42.3
30.8

88.5
96.2
80.8

98.8
95.2
83.3

87.8
92.7
92.5

°74

61

31.2
64.6
60.4

75.0
87.5
83.3

61.5
88.5
57.7

73.1
96.2
80.8

39.3
46.3
93.9

97.5
97.5
62.5

76

"62

50.0
70.8
70.8

91.7
91.7
95.8

73.1
76.9
61.5

88.5
88.5
76.9

81.3
95.0

10.0
12.5
10.0

°78

"63

70.8
62.5
50.0

*58

75.0
79.2
66.7

83.3
79.2
83.3

53.8
46.2
50.0

53.8
69.2
69.2

53.8

'54

52.1
54.2
70.8

83.3
75.0
70.8

42.3
34.6
65.4

69.2
61.5
61.5

75.0
88.8
37.0

91.7
87.5
79.2

57.7
65.4
65.4

61.5
61.5
61.5

37.2
97.4

84.6
91.0
92.3

°77

51

79.2
60.4
58.3

79.2
83.3
91.7

42.3
46.2
38.5

57.7
53.8
65.4

30.8
28.2
69.2

79.5
64.1
84.6

*72

P 51

83.3
60.4
56.3
75.0
75.0
66.7

91.7
70.8
68.8

42.3
69.2
76.9

57.7
69.2
61.5

84.6
23.1
74.4

97.4
78.9
86.8

'72

64.6
29.2
60.4

75.0
62.5
62.5

69.2
65.4
57.7

46.2
53.8
53.8

100.0

94.7

92.3
39.5

100.0

62.5
79.2

r47.1

79.2
50.0
85.4

53.8
38.5
38.5

53.8
61.5
46.2

89.5
78.9
81.6

97.4
97.4
92.1

p63.2

50.0

38.5
50.0
46.2

46.2
26.9

76.3
94.7
39.5

76.3

8.8
0.0
0.0

17.5

8.0

'77

12.8

1988

(NA)

3.8

5.1
7.7

'so

52.6

19S9

July
August
September

35.3
63.2
55.9

October
November
December

r52.9
p61.8

p47

(NA)

r50.0
r41.7

r52.1
p43.8

r87.5
r56.3
p54.2

34.6

7.7
3.8

(NA)

97.4

39.5
22.4

See note on page 74.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 37.
Based on 42 industries through April 1987, on 41 industries through June 1987, on 40 industries through March 1988, on 39 industries
through February 1989, and on 38 industries thereafter. . Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the
source.
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun £ Bradstreet, Inc.
1

lien

DECEMBER




1989

75

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued
Year
and
quarter

970. Expenditures for new plant and equipment,
21 industries
a. Actual
expenditures
(1-Q span)

b. Later
projections

971. New orders, manufacturing1©
Actual

c. Early
projections
(1-Q span)

(1-Q span)

972. Net profits, manufacturing
and trade 1 @
Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

973. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade1©
Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

1987
40.5
69.0
81.0
71.4

54.8
90.5
85.7
81.0

59.5
85.7
61.9
52.4

78
83
82
82

80
83
85
86

74
74
75
76

78
81
83
82

78
80
82
83

82
83
85
86

88.1
85.7
71.4
64.3

95.2
76.2
66.7
42.9

71.4
66.7
54.8
52.4

82
82
82
83

84
84
86
84

76
76
76
78

82
82
82
84

80
80
82
84

85
84
86
85

59.5
73.8
76.2

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

66.7
61.9
57.1
57.1

71.4
52.4
66.7
52.4

80
75

82
86
81
78

72
73

80
84
80
77

80
76

84
87
84
80

1988

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter . . . . .
Fourth quarter . . . .
1989

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1990

First quarter . . . . . .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

59.5

H
H DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued
Year
and
quarter

974. Number of employees,
manufacturing and trade 1(u)
Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

978. Selling prices, retail
trade1©

977. Selling prices, wholesale
trade1©

976. Selling prices, manufacturing1©

975. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and trade1©

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

60
61
64
64

60
59
62
62

64
65
66
68

60
60
61
62

64
64
68
70

60
66
67
66

63
70
72
70

63
68
66
69

67
67
72
72

64
64
68
70

63
62
62
63

63
62
62
61

67
70
69
68

62
64
62
63

74
74
74
75

70
69
74
72

74
73
74
72

72
72
71
68

70
70
73
70

68
71
70
72

62
60

62
62
61
58

66
65

63
64
60
60

72
72

70
74
68
67

74
71

72
72
69
66

73
71

70
72
73
69

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

1987

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1988

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1989

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1990

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those,
indicated by @, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 38.

l
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun $ Bradstreet, Inc. Dun $
Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives.

76



DECEMBER 1989

IIC1I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

H SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change
I
Diffusion index components

1989

June

May

April

August

July

September1"

October1"

November*3

961. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS OF PRODUCTION OR NONSUPERVISORY WORKERS, MANUFACTURING1
(Hours)
All manufacturing industries .

+

Percent Hsing of 20 components

41.0

41.3
(85)

o

41.0

o

(70)

(5)

41,0

o

41.0

o

40.8

40.7

(58)

(55)

(30)

41.0

(40)

(40)

Durable goods industries:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures

+
+

40.5
39.9

39,7
39.4

-io

39.8
39.4

Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries

+

42.5
43,3

41.9
43.2

+
+

42.2
43,3

Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical

+
+

41.9
42.7

41.7
42.5

o

41.5
42.5

Electric and electronic equipment
Transportation equipment

+

41.0
42.8

40.7
42,5

o
o

40.7
42.5

Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing

+
+

41.5
39.8

41.1
39.6

+

41.3
39.4

+

Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufacturers 2

+
+

40.7
38.1

40.5
39.5

+
+

40.7
40.1

+

Textile mill products ,
Apparel and other textile products

+
+

41.7
37.6

41.4
37.1

o
o

41.4
37,1

41.2
37.0

Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing

+
o

43.4
37.9

43.3
37.7

o
+

43.3
37.8

43.2
37.6

Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products2

+
+

42.6
44.3

42.1
43.9

+
+

42.5
44.6

o

Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products
Leather and leather products

o
+

41.6
38.3

41,5
37.4

o
+

41.5
37.9

-

o
o

+ • 40.2
+ 39.6

+

42.3
43.0

+

42.5
42.9

o

41.5
42.4

o

41.5
42.2

+
+

40.6
42.6

+
+

40.9
42.7

+
+

41.4
39.3

+

41.1
39.4

+

40.2
39.6

+

42.2
42.8

39.6
39.5

+

+

40.4
39.1

+

40.2
39.3

42.3
42.4

+
o

42.4
42.4

41.6
42.3

41.4
42.0

o

41.3
42.0

41.1
42.8

40.9
41.3

41.0
39.2

+

40.8
40.6

41.1
39.1

+
+

41.3
39.5

o

40.7
39.3

Nondurable goods industries:

+

-

40.8
37.3

+
+

41.0
40.3

+

40.7
40.9

o

41.0
37.0

o

40.6
37.0

+
o

40.7
37.0

+
+

43.5
37.7

43.2
37.9

+

+

43.4
37.7

+
+

43.5
37.9

42.4
43.7

.+
+

42,5
44.4

o
+

42.5
44.8

o

42.4
44.8

41.5
38.1

o
o

41.5
38.1

41.3
37.7

- 125,227

- 124,348

41.0
37.9

42.5
44.3

+
+

41.4
37.7

40.5
36.9

41.2
37.6

964. MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIESl3
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries

.+ 129 9 372

- 123,524

(72)

Percent vising of 34 components

Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery

+
+

22,731
19,890

-

Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries

o
+

37,062
23,817

o

+ 126,766

(56)

(63)

(35.)

+ 130,683

(53)

(62)

11,770
13,435

-

11,510'
12,820

+

11,251
13,275

+
+

11,399
13,689

+

11,015
13,886

+
+

11,202
13,996

22,288
18,677

+ 23,348
+•• 19,593

-•
•+

20,917
19,773

+
•-

22,643
19,424

+

22,554
20,898

-

21,492
20,143

+
+

22,900
21,741

33,470
23,816

-

+
-

34,012
22,999

+
+

36,514
23,659

+

32,555
24,132

+
+

33,252
24,560

+
-

36,727
24,117

-. 12,481
- - 12,792

12 9 865
13,007

.

- 122,031

(46)

(35)

+
+

Primary metals
Fabricated metal products

+ 125,137

+

33,414
23,577

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p",
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Unless otherwise noted, data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Not seasonally adjusted.
3
Data for most of the diffusion index components are not available for publication, but they are included in the totals and directions of
change for the six major industry groups shown here.




1989

77

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

I I SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued
PI

Diffusion index components

1989

May

April

June

August r

July

September r

October r • November

966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1
(1977 = 100)

All industrial production

+

Percent rising of 24 components

2

141.7

-

141.6

+

(50)

(79)

141.9

142.0
(85)

(50)

142.5

142.1

141.3

(50)

+

(42)

+

(52)

141.5
(44)

Durable manufactures:
Lumber and products
Furniture and fixtures

+
+

135.1
168.0

+ 135.5
+ 170.2

Clay, glass, and stone products
Primary metals

+

124.7
90.1

123.9
87.2

Fabricated metal products
Nonelectrical, machinery

+

123.1
184.7

+ 124.8
.+ 186.5

+ 125.2
+ 187.5

+ 125.4
- 186.7

+
+

125.5
187.8

Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment

+ 182.2
+ 136.4

-

+
-

-

Instruments
Miscellaneous manufactures

+ 163.0
+ 115.3

+ 164.3
+ 117.1

+ 165.7
+
119.1

Foods
Tobacco products

+ 146.6
+ 109.2

+ 147.2
- 105.9

+ 147.9
104.2

147.3
97.1

Textile mill products
Apparel products

+ 122.5
.+ 111.3

+ 123.6
+ 111.5

+
+

123.5
111.4

Paper and products
Printing and publishing

150.7
+ 200.1

-

181.6
135.5

+ 137.2
+ 170.8

-

o
+

+

123.9
87.3

181.9
134.2

136.9
169.0

-

136.5
168.0

+

122.9
+' 123.9
89.2 . +
90.3

181.4
131.3

+ 166.0
o 119.1

+ 136.2
+ 168.7

135.3
168.4

NA)
NA)

122.6
89.2

+

123.5
88.5

-

124.7
186.8

-

123.9
183.2

+
+

124.1
187.3

+ 183.7
+ 133.2

-

182.8
131.8

-

181.5
123.3

+

181.0
124.3

-

164.1
118.9

-

162.9
118.3

+

163.0
117.1

162.9

+
+

148.3
99.9

+

148.8
(NA)

+

150.0
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

123.2
111.1

o

123.2
111.0

-

122.3
110.0

(NA)
(NA)

+

152.8

+

153.4

+

154.0

+

200.6

+

202.7

o

202.8

161.5
97.7

+

159.6
98.3

+
+

161.8
99.8

(NA)
99.0

183.6
60.2

+
o

183.8
60.2

+

184.1
59.9

(NA)
(NA)

103.7
135.4

+
+

104.2
144.2

+

(NA)
144.4

89.9
144.8

+
+

90.0
150.0

(NA)
86.2

(NA)

Nondurable manufactures:

Chemicals and products
Petroleum products

:

Rubber and plastics products
Leather and products . ,

178.0
61.4

+

150.1
199.0

+ 150.2
200.5

+ 152.4
- 199.9

158.2
96.9

+ 159.3
+
97.3
+
+

123.8
111.9

+ 159.9
+ 97.9

+ 162.2
+
98.3

180.5
60.3

+
+

182.3
60.5

o 182.3
+
60.8

101.2
129.2

+
+

90.6
150.2

+
90.8
+ . 152.1

+

+

(NA)

+

203.0

• Mining:
Metal mining
Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals

96.8
+ 145.5
;

94.0
137.1

+

-

89.1
144.5

+
+

90.5
146.6

+
+

+

106.2
130.2

+

90.3
151.5

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling,
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent risir

78



(NA)

+

144.5
(NA)
(NA)

The "r" indicates revised; "p"

DECEMBER 1989

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

SELECTED D I F F U S I O N I N D E X COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued
Diffusion index components

1989
April

June

May

August

July

September

October

November

December 1

967. I N D E X OF SPOT MARKET PRICES, RAW INDUSTRIALS 2
Raw industrials price index (1967 = 100) . . . .

+

Percent rising of 13 components

335.0

-

330.5

-

(38)

(54)

329.1

-

326.7

-

(38)

(38)

325.0

+

(50)

327.0

-

(46)

325.7

-

(35)

314.2

-

301.8

(8)

(4)

Dollars
Copper scrap

(pound)
(kilogram)..

+

1.058
2.332

-

0.969
2.136

Lead scrap

(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .

+

0.218
0.481

o

0.218 +
0.481

Steel scrap

(U.S. ton) . .
(metric ton) . .

-

-

0.901 +
1.986

0.952
2.099

+

1.012
2.231

+

1.028
2.266

-

0.915
2.017

-

0.802
1.768

0.228 +
0.503

0.231 +
0.509

0.242
0.534

+

0.260
0.573

-

0.257
0.567

-

0.255
0.562

-

0.240
0.529

99.000 •- 96.000
105.821
109.128

-

94.000
103.616

0.940
2.072

o 113.000
124.560

- 112.200
123.678

- 111.000
122.355

- 108.000
119.048

- 105.000
115.741

- 102.250
112.710

-

Tin

(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .

+

5.750
12.676

+

5.822
12.835

-

5.685
12.533

-

5.290
11.662

-

4.786
10.551

-

4.535
9.998

-

4.362
9.616

-

3.782
8.338

-

3.715
8.190

Zinc

(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .

-

0.879
1.938

-

0.854
1.883

-

0.809
1.784

-

0.804
1.772

+

0.829
1.828

-

0.822
1.812

-

0.804
1.772

-

0.761
1.678

-

0.734
1.618

(yard) . .
(meter) . .

+

0.283
0.309

-

0.282
0.308

+

0.284
0.311

+

0.286
0.313

-

0.284
0.311

o

0.284
0.311

+

0.285
0.312

-

0.284
0.311

-

0.282
0.308

(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .

+

0.614
1.354

+

0.635
1.400

+

0.638
1.407

+

0.670
1.477

+

0.698
1.539

-

0.686
1.512

+

0.693
1.528

-

0.677
1.493

-

0.637
1.404

(yard)
(meter) . .

+

0.650
0.711

+

0.708
0.774

+

0.768
0.840

+

0.815
0.891

-

0.784
0.857

-

0.782
0.855

-

0.774
0.846

-

0.752
0.822

-

0.710
0.776

(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .

-

6.250
13.779

-

5.570
12.280

-

5.400
11.90.5

-

5.200
11.464

+

5.220
11.508

+

5.250
11.574

-

5.180
11.420

-

5.000
11.023

-

4.800
10.582

Hides

(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .

-

0.975
2.149

-

0.954
2.103

-

0.948 +
2.090

1.000
2.205

+

1.020
2.249

+

1.052
2.319

-

1.048
2.310

-

1.025
2.260

-

1 ..004
2.213

Rosin

(100 p o u n d s ) . .
(100 k i l o g r a m s ) . .

o

65.000
143.299

o

65.000
143.299

-

64.500
142.197

-

63.000
138.890

o

63.000
138.890

o

63.000
138.890

o

63.000
138.890

o

63.000
138.890

o

63.000
138.890

Burlap
Cotton

'..-..

Print cloth
Wool tops

,

Rubber

(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .

-

0.553
1.219

-

0.520
1.146

-

0.494
1.089

-

0.492
1.085

-

0.473
1.043

-

0.462
1.019

-

0.461
1.016

-

0.457
1.008

-

0.449
0.990

Tallow

(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .

-

0.143 +
0.315

0.144
0.317

+

0.150
0.331

-

0.142
0.313

-

0.131 +
0.289

0.138
0.304

+

0.144
0.317

o

0.144
0.317

-

0.136
0.300

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers:
preliminary; and "NA", not available.

( +) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-)

= falling.

The "r" indicates revised; "p",

a

The Index is the average for December 1 through 26.
Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without
written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
2

DECEMBER 1989




79

IMPORTANT
IA

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME
Year

217. Per capita
gross national
product in 1982
dollars

quarter

b. Difference

a. Total

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. doi.)

b. Difference

a. Total

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

213. Final sales
in 1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
dollars)

50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars

200. Gross national product in current dollars

and

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1988
First quarter . . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

4,181.3
4S194.7
4,253.3
4,297.3

73.4
13.4
58.6
44.0

7.3
1.3
5.7
4.2

3,721.1
3,704.6
3,712.4
3,733.6

58.7
-16.5
7.8
21.2

6.6
-1.8
0.8
2.3

15,455
15,351
15,343
15,391

3,679.2
3,697.6
3,718.3
3,754.4

4,388.8
4,475.9
4,566.6
4,665.8

91.5
87.1
90.7
99.2

8.2
8.4
9.0

3,783.0
3,823.5
3,872.8
3,935.6

49.4
40.5
49.3
62.8

5.4
4.4
5.3
6.6

15,562
15,693
15,854
16,068

3,764.9
3,810.1
3,866.0
3,879.0

4,739.8
4,838.5
4,926.9
5,017.3

74.0
98.7
88.4
90.4

6.5
8.6
7.5
7.5

3,974.8
4,010.7
4,042.7
4,069.4

39.2
35.9
32.0
26.7

4.0
3.7
3.2
2.7

16,192
16,303
16,388
16,452

3,940.5
3,989.2
4,005.2
4,051.0

5,113.1
5,201.7
r5,281.0

95.8
88.6
r79.3

7.9
7.1
r6.2

4,106.8
4,132.5
r4,162.9

37.4
25.7
r30.4

3.7
2.5
r3.0

16,567
16,633
r!6 9 709

4,082.3
4,113.5
r4,141.0

1987
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter
1988

First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

1989
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME-Continued
230. Total in current
dollars

Disposable personal income

Year

and
quarter

224. Current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

225. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

231. Total in 1982
dollars

232. Durable goods
in current dollars

233. Durable goods
in 1982 dollars

227. Per capita in
1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1986
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

2,959.2
3,006.5
3,024.3
3,063.4

2,609.2
2,648.6
2,637.3
2,646.2

10,837
10,975
10,900
10,909

2,734.3
2,761.0
2,826.0
2,868.5

2,410.9
2,432.4
2,464.4
2,477.8

381.8
393.6
426.4
422.0

363.7
374.5
401.9
397.5

3,142.8
3,138.1
3,223.5
3,319.4

2,672.3
2,632.5
2,675.6
2,726.2

10,993
10,805
10,953
11,130

2,914.7
2,989.4
3,055.9
3,083.3

2,478.3
2,507.7
2,536.5
2,532.3

401.2
419.2
439.3
424.5

376.1
389.3
403.8
389.4

3,376.4
3,435.9
3,511.7
3,587.4

2,757.2
2,773,3
2,806.4
2,835.9

11,232
11,273
11,377
11,466

3,148.1
3,204.9
3,263.4
3,324.0

2,570.8
2,586.8
2,608.1
2,627.7

446.4
454.6
452.5
467.4

408.4
414.8
410.
420.

3,689.5
3,747.7
r3,806.8

2,881.7
2,887.6
r2,919.2

11,625
11,622
rll,717

3,381.4
3,444.1
r3,508.1

2,641.0
2,653.7
>2,690.1

466.4
471.0
r486.1

419.3
424.9
r436.4

1987
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter
1988

First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

19S9
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (g), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 41.




DECEMBER

1989

KCBI

OTHER IMPORTAMT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Il PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES-Continued
l
year
and
quarter
\/nnr

236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

238. Nondurable
goods in 1982
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT

237. Services in
current dollars

239. Services in
1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

240. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

241. Total in
1982 dollars

242. Fixed investment in current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

243. Fixed investment in 1982
dollars

19S6

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

939.0
935.4
941.4
952.1

870.1
879.8
879.1
883.5

1,413.4
1,432.0
1,458.2
1,494.4

1,177.1
1,178.0
1,183.4
1,196.8

683.8
657. *2
647.7
648^8

676.1
642*3
625.1
615^2

976.4
994.3
1,006.0
1,015.4

887.7
889 .0
891.8
892.9

1,537.1
1,575.8
1,610.6
1,643.3

1,214.5
1,229.5
1,240.9
1,250.0

673.1
684! 1
692.8
749.7

646.3
656.' 7
671.7
721.1

1 9 022.2
1,042.4
1,066.2
1,078.4

896.6
899.2
91.0.3
912.0

1,679.5
1,707.9
1,744.7
1,778.2

1,265.9
1,272.8
1,287.0
1,295.2

728.8
748.4
771.1
752.8

707.0
713.5
733.6
709.1

698.7
719.1
726.5
734.1

672.7
692.0
696.1
690.8

1,098.3
1,121.5
rl,131.4

915.0
909.7
r920.8

1,816.7
1,851.7
rl s 890.6

1,306.7
1,319.0
rl, 332.9'

769.6
775.0
r779. 1

721.1
719.8
r724.6

742.0
747.6
r751.7

696.6
700.7
r702.7

643. 1

f.?A

651.*8
660.9

635.2
coi n U
Do 1 .
636.0

fiA71/ . 7
OH
/

COO 0
O£O . £

665.3
683.2
686.3

643.4
664.9
664.6

C.ZA

OO'r

.0
C.

O

OO*T . L.

I9S7
First quarter .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

1988
.First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter . . . . . .
Fourth quarter . . . .
19S9

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

H
and
quarter

245. Change in
business inventories in current
dollars

30. Change in
business inventories in 1982
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Vpar
I car

H

GROSS PRIVATE
DOMESTIC INVEST.-Con.

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

260. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

261. Total in
1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
262. Federal
Government in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

263. Federal
Government in
1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

266. State and •
local government
in current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

267. State and
local government
in 1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

19§S

First quarter .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

40.7

41.9

5.4

7.1

-6.4
-12.2

-20.8

25.4
18.8

18,1
13.3

-5.9

850.3
869^3
880.3
888.9

744.1
761.2
765.2
776.0

QCQ C
OOO o D

•50/1 A
O£*t . t

T-.71 . O

368.7
369.9
368.8

335.4
334.2
342.4

500.6
510.4
520.1

f iy . D
425.7
430.9
433.6

906.9
916.8
933.2
947^5

776.6
774.9
783 . 5
792!l

375.6
378.2
004
oot .co
388.1

338.1
334.7

531.4
538.6

438.5
440.1

AQ1

ft

A 1 Q

C

1987

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

9.5

JT-U . /

o/ifi 7

c/io /
OM-O . 7

344.9

559.4

447.2

63.3

6.8
56.' 6

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

30.0
29.3
44.6
18.7

34.3
21.5
37.5
18.3

945.7
960.1
958.6
1,011.4

775.1
783.0
775.9
806.4

374.1
377.1
367.5
406.4

323.8
327.9
319.8
343.9

571.6
583.0
591.0
604.9

451.3
455.1
456.1
462.5

I9S9
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

27.7
27,4
r27.4

24.5
19.1

1,016.0
1,033.2
rl,038.9

799.7
810.3
r805.3

399.0
406,0
K02.7

335.5
343.6
r336.1

617.0
627.2
r636.2

464.2
466.7
K69.2

A.A9 Q
M-H-c .0

19SS

r21.9

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 41, 42, and 43.

1C I DECEMBER
I 1

1989




81

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

D

QS FOREIGN TRADE
Year
and
quarter

252. Current
dollars

255. Constant
(1982) dollars

250. Current
dollars

256. Constant
(1982) dollars

253. Current
dollars

280. Compensation of
employees

257. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

220. National income in current
dollars

Imports of goods and services

Exports of goods and services

Net exports of goods and services

NATIONAL INCOME
AND ITS COMPONENTS

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

-87.1
-92.7
-100.8
-108.9

-110.0
-131.2
-142.3
-135.4

395.5
390.7
397.3
402.4

392.9
389.6
399.6
406.5

482.7
483.4
498.0
511.3

502.9
520.7
541.9
541.9

3S363.4
3,394.5
3,419.3
3,473.1

2,463.8
2,487.2
2,523.3
2,571.2

-106.0
-114.4
-115.3
-114.6

-118.2
-115.9
-118.9
-109.8

416.5
437.4
458.0
482.6

418.7
439.5
461.3
484.1

522.5
551.8
573.4
597,2

536.9
555.4
580.2
593.9

3,550.5
3,616.4
3,694.8
3,799.9

2,615.0
2,656.6
2,709.8
2,778.7

-82.8
-74.9
-66.2
-70.8

-78.2
-72.6
-74.9
-73.8

521.6
532.5
556.8
579.7

517.4
519.7
531.9
551.4

604.3
607.5
623.0
650.5

595.6
592.3
606.9
625.2

3,853.6
3,933.6
4,005.7
4,097.4

2,819.4
2,878.9
2,935.1
2,997.2

-54.0
-50.6
r-45.1

-55.0
-51.2
r-57.1

605.6
626.1
r628.5

569.7
587.5
r593.1

659.6
676.6
r673.6

624.6
638.7
r650.2

4,185.2
4,249.6
r4,287.3

3,061.7
3,118.2
3,171.9

1987

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1988

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1989

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

I
1

Year
and
quarter

282. Proprietors'
income with IVA
and CCAdj 1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

|
H SAVING

NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS-Continued

284. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj 1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

286. Corporate
profits before tax
with IVA and
CCAdj 1

288. Net interest

290. Gross saving

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

292. Personal
saving

295. Business
saving

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

269.4
289.5
279.7
289.2

11.5
11.7
13.5

292.7
280.9
279.7
275.2

327.9
325.4
324.9
324.0

559.6
523.0
508,8
510.0

550.8
542.8
545.5
539.3

135.9
155.0
106.6
102.0

306.7
305.8
305.2
328.7

14.7
13.0
11.5
14.3

279.9
293.7
313.0
308.2

334.2
347.2
355.3
370.0

529.5
535.0
551.1
599.5

546.8
556.4
571.0
573.9

135.9
141.8

324.0
331.8
327.0
328.3

15.6
14.6
16.3
16.1

318.1
325.3
330.9
340.2

376.6
383.0
396.4
415.7

619.1
633.4
669.8
647.4

588.1
588.5
592.8
605.8

131.9
134.0
149.6
163.4

359.3
355.5
r343.3

11.8

316.3
307.8
r295.2

436.1
458.4
r471.5

693.5
695.8
r709.9

586.4
593.0
r614.5

205.7
200.7
r!95.1

9.6

1987

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

55.9
73.6

1988

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1989

First quarter . . . . . .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

9.8
r5.4

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46.
1
IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.

82



DECEMBER

1989

HOI

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Ill

Year
and
quarter

SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME

SAVING-Continued

298. Government
surplus or deficit

293. Personal
saving rate

Percent of gross national product
235. Personal consumption expenditures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

248. Nonresidential
fixed investment

247. Change in
business inventories

249. Residential
fixed investment

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

251. Net exports of
goods and services

1986

-127.2
-174.7
-143.4
-131.3

4.6
5.2
3.5
3.3

65.4
65.8
66.4
66.8

10.5
10.4
10.1
10.1

4.9
5.2
5.2
5.2

-153.2
-77.3
-93.5
-116.3

4.3
1.8
2.3
4.3

66.4
66.8
66.9
66.1

9.7
9.8

5.1
5.1
5.0
4.9

0.6
0.4
0.2
1.4

-2.4
-2.6
-2.5
-2.5

-101.0
-89.1
-72.7
-121.9

3.9
3.9
4.3
4.6

66.4
66.2
66.2
66.3

9.9

4.8
4.8
4.7
4.8

0.6
0.6
0.9
0.4

-1.7
-1.5
-1.3
-1.4

-98.7
-97.9
r-99.8

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

5.6
5.4

66.1
66.2

r66.4

4.7
4.5
4.4

0.5
0.5
0.5

-1.1
-1.0

r5.1

9.8
9.9
9.8

1.0
0.1
-0.2
-0.3

-2.1
-2.2
-2.4
-2.5

1987

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

10.0

9.8

198S

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

10.0
10.1
10.0

1989

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

r-0.9

Qj SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Continued
Year
and
quarter

Percent of GNP— Continued
265. Federal Government purchases of
goods and services
(Percent)

Percent of national income

268. State and local
government purchases
of goods and services
(Percent)

64. Compensation of
employees

285. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj *

283. Proprietors'
income with IVA
and CCAdj x

289. Net interest

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

287. Corporate profits
before tax with
IVA and CCAdj l

1986

8.6
8.8
8.7
8.6

11.8
11.9
12.0
12.1

73.3
73.3
73.8
74.0

8.0
8.5
8.2
8.3

0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4

8.7
8.3
8.2
7.9

9.7
9.6
9.5
9.3

8.6
8.4
8.4
8.3

12.1
12.0
12.0
12.0

73.7
73.5
73.3
73.1

8.6
8.5
8.3
8.7

0.4
0.4
0.3
0.4

7.9
8.1
8.5
8.1

9.4
9.6
9.6
9.7

7.9
7.8
7.5
8.1

12.1
12.0
12.0
12.1

73.2
73.2
73.3
73.1

8.4
8.4
8.2
8.0

0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4

8.3
8.3
8.3
8.3

9.8
9.7
9.9

7.8
7.8
7.6

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

12.1
12.1

73.2
73.4
74.0

8.6
8.4
8.0

0.3
0.2
0.1

7.6
7.2

1987

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1988

First quarter . . . . . . .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

10.1

1989

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

r!2.0

r6.9

10.4
10.8
11.0

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
'"IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.

ilCil DECEMBER

1989




83

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
BI

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

PRICE MOVEMENTS
Implicit price deflator for
gross national product
Year
and
month

310. Index

(1982 = 100)

310c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans *

(Ann. rate,
percent)

311. Index

(1982 = 100)

311c. Change
. over 1-quarter
spans 1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Consumer price index for
all urban consumers, food

Consumer price index
for all urban consumers

Fixed-weighted price index,
gross domestic business product
320. Index©

(1982-84=100)

320c. Change
over 1-month
spans 1

(Percent)

320c. Change
over 6-month
l
spans

(Ann. rate,
percent)

322. Index

(1982-84=100)

322c. Change
over 1-month
spans i

(Percent)

322c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1987

January
February
March

ii6\6

April
May
June

3.7

117!l

October .
November
December

5.0
5.1
5.3

112.1
112.3
112.5

0.6
0.2
0.2

4.0
4.2
4.9

112.7
113.1
113.5

0.4
0.4
0.3

4.4
4.5
4.0

112.8
113.4
114.1

0.3
0.5
0.6

3.1
2.7
3.2

3.7

113.8
114.4
115.0

0.3
0.4
0.2

3.8
3.7
3.6

113.8
113.8
114.3

3.6

115.3
115.4
115.4

0.3
0.3
0.2

3.9
3.3
3.7

114.5
114.7
115.3

3.3

115.7
116.0
116.5

0.4
0.2
0.3

3.9
4.0
4.4

115.7
115.5
116.0

5.0

117.1
117.5
118.0

0.4
0.4
0.3

4.4
4.7
4.9

5.5

118.5
119.0
119.8

0.4
0.3
0.4

4.3

120.2
120.3
120.5

4.1

116.9
2.8

.

0.7
0.4
0.4

115^7
3.8

July '
August
September

111.2
111.6
112.1

3.9

3.2

IIJ'.V

0.0
0.4

3.0
2.3
2.1

0.2
0.2
0.5

3.4
3.0
3.0

0.3
0.4

3.7
4.2
4.4

116.6
117.1
117.8

0.5
0.4
0.6

5.6
7.0
7.6

4.8
4.5
4.5

118.9
119.5
120.3

0.9
0.5
0.7

7.0
6.4
5.9

0.4
0.3
0.3

4.8
4.9
5.1

120.6
120.8
121.2

0.2
0.2
0.3

5.5
5.3
5.6

121.1
121.6
122.3

0.6
0.4
0.5

5.6
6.2
5.9

122.1
122.6
123.6

0.7
0.4
0.8

6.1
7.1
6.9

5.3

123.1
123.8
124.1

0.7
0.6
0.2

5.2
4.3
3.6

124.2
125.0
125.3

0.5
0.6
0.2

6.0
5.5
4.3

2.6

124.4
124.6
125.0

0.2
0.0
0.2

3.3
2.9

125.7
125.9
126.2

0.3
0.2
0.2

4.1
3.9

125.6
125.9

0.5
0.4

126.7
127.4

0.4
0.6

117!9
2.4

118.6

119!6

-0.3

198S

January
February
March

119^2

April
May
June

i2o!e

July
August
September

12L9

October
November
December

123!3

2.0

119!9
4.8
121A

4.4

123^6
4.7

124^4

-0.2

1989

January
February
March

124!5

April
May
June

125^9

4.0

125^6
4.6

127°.2

.. ..

July
August
September
October
November
December .

3.2

126^9

128 '.6

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49.
'•Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and
1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter.




DECEMBER 1989

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Ill
Producer price index, all commodities
Year .
and
month

330. Index @

(1982 = 100)

(Percent)

Producer price index, crude materials
for further processing

Producer price index, industrial commodities

330c. Change
over 6-month
spans1©

330c. Change
over 1-month
spans1©

PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued

335. Index ©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1982 = 100)

335c. Change
over 1-month
spans1©

(Percent)

335c. Change
over 6-month
spans1©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

331. Index

331c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

(1982 = 100)

(Percent)

331c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1987

January
February
March

100.5
101.0
101.2

0.8
0.5
0.2

4.5
5.7
6.7

100.4
100.8
101.1

1.2
0.4
0.3

5.1
5.5
6.6

89.3
90.1
90.8

2.8
0.9
0.8

12.5
14.9
17.8

April . .
May
June

101.9
102.6
103.0

0.7
0.7
0.4

6.1
5.6
5.0

101.6
101.9
102.4

0.5
0.3
0.5

5.5
5.8
4.8

92.6
93.9
94.3

2.0
1.4
0.4

14.4
14.7
11.5

July
August
September

103.5
103.8
103.7

0.5
0.3

4.4
3.1
2.3

103.1
103.7
103.5

0.7
0.6

4.8
4.6
3.5

95.5
96.5
95.9

-0.6

October
November
December

104.1
104.2
104.2

0.4
0.1
0.0

2.1
1.9
2.3

104.0
104.2
104.2

0.5
0.2
0.0

2.5
1.7
2.3

95.8
95.0
94.8

-0.1
-0.8
-0.2

-2.9
-3.1
-2.7

January
February
March

104.6
104.8
104.9

0.4
0.2
0.1

3.3
4.5
5.8

104.4
104.6
104.7

0.2
0.2
0.1

3.1
3.7
4.3

94.1
95.0
94.6

-0.7

-0.4

April
May
June

105.8
106.5
107.2

0.9
0.7
0.7

6.4
6.2
6.2

105.6
106.1
106.4

0.9
0.5
0.3

4.7
4.6
4.1

95.6
96.0
96.9

July
August
September

107.9
108.0
108.1

0.7
0.1
0.1

4.6
3.4
3.4

106.8
107.0
106.8

0.4
0.2

2.9
2.7
3.2

96.6
97.2
97.1

-0.3
-0.1

1.9

October
November
December

108.2
108.3
109.0

0.1
0.1
0.6

4.9
5.3
6.4

107.1
107.5
108.1

0.3
0.4
0.6

5.3
5.9
7.0

96.6
94.8
97.8

-0.5
-1.9

11.1

January
February
March

110.5
110.8
111.5

1.4
0.3
0.6

7.7
9.3
7.3

109.6
110.1
110.5

1.4
0.5
0.4

9.0
9.3
8.1

101.8
101.5
103.7

April
May
June

112.3
113.2
112.9

0.7
0.8
-0.3

111.8
112.4
112.4

1.2
0.5
0.0

4.8
2.4
2.5

104.5
104.9
103.2

July
August
September

rl!2.8
112.0
112.3

r-0.1
r-0.7
0.3

1.1

r!03.4
101.2
102.3

October
November
December

112.7
112.7

-0.1

-0.2

1.3
1.0

7.0
2.4
1.1

1988

-0.2

1.0
-0.4

1.1
0.4
0.9
0.6

2.1
4.5
5.4
4.7
5.4
2.1
-2.5

9.0

3.2

14.1

4.1

17.0
22.4

19S9

0.4
0.0

See note on |
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
1
Changes are centered within the spans:

1989



r4.2

2.2
1.4
0.7
-0.9

112.2
111.4
111.9

-0.2
-0.7

112.4
112.2

0.4

0.4
-0.2

-0.4

102.3
102.7

-0.3

2.2

11.3"

0.8
0.4

r3.2
-0.6
-2.7

-1.6
rO.2

r-2.1
1.1

-4.2
-4.2

0.0
0.4

1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.

85

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

I H PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued
j
Producer price index, intermediate
materials, supplies, and components
Year
and
month

332c. Change
over 1-month
spans x

332. Index

(1982 = 100)

(Percent)

Producer price index, capital equipment

332c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

333. Index

(1982 = 100)

333c. Change
over 1-month
spans *

(Percent)

Producer price index, finished consumer goods

333c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

334. Index

(1982 = 100)

334c. Change
over 1-month
spans l

334c. Change
over 6-month
spans x

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1987

0.1

1.6
1.3
1.3

102.0
102.6
102.9

0.7
0.6
0.3

4.2
4.6
4.8

111.4
111.5
111.5

0.3
0.1
0.0

0.7
1.6
2.4

103.4
103.6
103.7

0.5
0.2
0.1

3.8
2.6
3.1

5.7
5.2
4.6

111.6
111.9
112.4

0.1
0.3
0.4

1.1
1.1
1.3

103.9
103.9
104.5

0.2
0.0
0.6

1.7
1.2
0.4

0.5
0.3
0.2

5.0
4.5
4.7

112.0
112.1
112.2

0.1
0.1

2.2
2.2
1.4

104.3
104.2
103.9

-0.2
-0.1
-0.3

1.4
1.4
1.0

104.3
104.6
105.0

0.7
0.3
0.4

5.1
5.7
6.9

112.8
113.1
113.2

0.5
0.3
0.1

2.5
2.9
3.2

104.6
104.6
105.0

0.7
0.0
0.4

1.9
2.7
3.7

April
May
June

105.7
106.3
107.1

0.7
0.6
0.8

7.0
7.0
7.0

113.4
113.7
114.0

0.2
0.3
0.3

2.7
2.8
4.5

105.3
105.6
105.8

0.3
0.3
0.2

3.7
4.3
4.4

July
August
September

107.9
108.2
108.6

0.7
0.3
0.4

5.6
5.1
4.5

114.3
114.7
115.7

0.3
0.3
0.9

3.9
3.7
3.9

106.5
106.8
107.3

0.7
0.3
0.5

4.0
4.2
4.6

October
November
December

108.6
109.0
109.5

0.0
0.4
0.5

5.4
5.8
6.2

115.6
115.8
116.2

0.2
0.3

4.6
4.8
3.1

107.4
107.8
108.2

0.1
0.4
0.4

5.7
7.2
7.4

January
February
March

110.8
111.3
111.9

1.2
0.5
0.5

7.3
6.9
5.4

116.9
117.4
117.5

0.6
0.4
0.1

3.1
4.2
4.5

109.5
110.6
111.2

1.2
1.0
0.5

10.1

April
May
June

112.5
112.7
112.4

0.5
0.2

2.5
1.1
0.7

117.4
118.2
118.8

-0.1

0.7
0.5

2.7
4.6

112.0
113.1
112.9

0.7
1.0

July .
August
September . . . . . . .

112.2
111.9
112.3

r!18.8
119.0
120.2

rO.O
rO.2

4.1
3.4

October
November
December

112.3
112.2

119.8
120.2

-0.3

100.0

0.8
0.7
0.2

4.3
5.4
6.2

111.2
111.0
111.1

April
May
June

100.3
100.8
101.3

0.3
0.5
0.5

5.5
5.1
5.3

July
August
September

101.8
102.3
102.6

0.5
0.5
0.3

October
November
December . . . . . . .

103.1
103.4
103.6

January
February . . . . . . . .
March

January
February . . . . . . . .
March

99.1
99.8

0.4
-0.2

-0.4

1988

-0.1

1989

-0.3
-0.2
-0.3

0.4
0.0
-0.1

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
1
Changes are centered within the spans:




-0.4
-0.9

1.0
0.3

r3.3

-0.2

rl!2.2
111.5
112.5

r-0.6
r-0.6
0.9

113.2
113.0

8.7
8.9
r5.0

1.6
2.4
2.2

-0.2

-0.2

0.6

1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.

DECEMBER 1989

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

'

WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector

Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls x
Year
and
month
340. Index

340c. Change
over 1-month
spans 2

(1977 = 100)

(Percent)

Current-dollar compensation

Real earnings

Current-dollar earnings
340c. Change
over 6-month
spans 2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

341. Index

341c. Change
over 1-month
spans 2

(1977 = 100)

(Percent)

345. Index

341c. Change
over 6-month
spans 2
(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1977 = 100)

345c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans2

345c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans2

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1987

January
February
March

171.3
171.9
172.1

0.1
0.4
0.1

2.6
2.0
2.1

94.7
94.7
94.4

-0.7

April
May
June

172.5
172.9
172.9

0.3
0.2
0.1

2.3
2.6
2.9

July
August
September

173.2
174.1
174.6

0.2
0.5
0.3

October
November
December

174.9
175.6
175.7

January
February
March

1.5
186^2

-0.3

-2.4
-3.1
-3.3

94.1
94.0
93.7

-0.3
-0.1
-0.3

-2.1
-2.0
-1.5

187.4

2.8
3.3
3.3

93.7
93.8
93.7

-0.1

-1.3
-0.5
-0.1

18916

0.2
0.4
0.1

4.0
3.0
2.8

93.5
93.8
93.7

-0.2

176.6
176.7
177.0

0.5
0.1
0.2

3.6
3.5
3.3

93.8
93.7
93.5

April
May
June

178.0
178.7
178.6

0.6
0.4

3.1
3.2
3.8

93.6
93.6
93.2

July
August
September

179.3
179.5
180.3

4.0
3.0

93.2
92.9
93.0

0.0

0.1
-0.1

0.3
-0.1

2.6
3*.9

4.7

0.2
-0.1
-0.4

3^5

4.2
7.0

192.9

4.9

1988

October
November
December

;

181.5
181.4
pl81.7

-0.1

0.4
0.1
0.5
0.6
-0.1
pO.2

p3.5

(3)

0.1
-0.1
-0.2

0.1
0.0
-0.4

0.0
-0.4

2.4

0.1
-0.5
-1.0
-1.2
-1.8
-1.1
-1.0
-1.3

0.2

(3)

5.6
4.8

196.7
5.2

5.5

199°.2

p-1.0

0.1

5.1

194.0

93.1
92.9

-0.2

p92.7

p-0.2

(3)

(3)

5.9
202°6

!:!

1989

C)

January
February
March

o

5.1
204*6

5.4
5.6

April
May
June

207.4

July
August
September

r5.0

r209.9

October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
x
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
2
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
3
This series has been discontinued by the source agency.

•DECEMBER 1989




87

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

KB WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued
Negotiated wage and
benefit decisions

Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector— Continued
J

Year
and

348. Average
first-year
changes ©

Real compensation
346. Index

(1977 = 100)

346c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans 1

346c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans 1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Output per hour, all persons, business sector

349. Average
changes over
life of
contract ©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

370. Index

370c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

(1977 = 100)

370c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans x

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

358. Index of
output per hour,
all persons,
nonfarm business sector

(1977=100)

1987

January
February
March

1.1
...

. .'. ; . .
; ..

...

...
3.9

-6'.7

100 '.8

April; May .
June

2.1

4.1

-3.7

. . . ...

-2.1

...

October
November . . . . . . .
, December . . . . . . .

ioi.3

107^7

2*.4

10SL6

2.9

109!5

i'.j

Il6!2

i'.5

ni'.o

6'.9

Il6'.5

CL5

nils

l!5

112*.6

ri.'i

lli',6

...
2.5

1.0
100.5

i'.9
...

...
2.6

•••

July .
.
, August
September . . . . . . .

0.5

110 '.7

-6'.4

100 '.3

no'.o

2.1

0*2

3.8

^

111..7

...
3.3

i.o

3.4

2.4

2.8

112L5

1988

, January
February
; March

.

-1.2

1.8

1.8

C)'.9

2.5
113*.2

...
3.1

1.0

April
May .
June

...
.

, July
August
September . . .'. .

101.3

2.4

3.4

0.4

3.2

3.5

1.4

3.1

113!4

0.6

101.7

-2.1

112'.6

6'.4

101.4

October
November . . . . . . .
December . . . . . . .
I

ioi'.o

0.2

2.1

6!2

.. .

113!5

1989

January
' February
March
April :
May ,.
June
July .
^ August
September

-0.3

.,..'.:.

10.i'.7

. ...

ioi!5

p3.2

-0.7

1.1

p3.4

113*.8

6'.7

p5.0

1.6

p3.4

114 '.2

lli!9

...
2.6
.

102.1

p3.9

rl.7

P2.7

rll2!6

rlli.'?

October
November
December . . . . . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
Changes are centered within the spans:
1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are
placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.




DECEMBER 1989

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
447. Number
unemployed,
full-time
workers

Civilian labor force
Year
and
month

441. Total

442. Civilian
employment

Number unemployed
37. Persons
unemployed

444. Males
20 years
and over

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

445. Females
20 years
and over

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

446. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age

(Thous.)

448. Number
employed
part time
for economic
reasons

Civilian labor force participation rates
451. Males
20 years
and over

(Percent)

452. Females
20 years
and over

(Percent)

453. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age

(Percent)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

January
February
March . . .

118,873
119,119
119,263

110,969
111,271
111,459

7,904
7,848
7,804

3,649
3,594
3,532

2,864
2,822
2,870

1,391
1,432
1,402

6,430
6,382
6,231

5,187
5,326
5,168

78.2
78.1
78.1

55.7
55.8
55.9

54.2
54.8
54.4

April . . ,
May
June

119,394
120,102
119,647

111,789
112,524
112,287

7,605
7,578
7,360

3,482
3,443
3,440

2,757
2,708
2,640

1,366
1,427
1,280

6,110
6,039
6,043

5,122
5,098
4,979

78.1
78.2
78.0

56.0
56.3
56.2

54.5
55.6
53.6

July
August
September

119,884
120,245
120,008

112,613
113,019
112,896

7,271
7,226
7,112

3,340
3,259
3,165

2,674
2,662
2,666

1,257
1,305
1,281

5,895
5,814
5,664

5,103
5,046
5,050

78.0
77.9
77.9

56.3
56.4
56.3

53.8
56.0
54.1

October
November
December

120,429
120,527
120,701

113,225
113,460
113,740

7,204
7,067
6,961

3,194
3,114
3,061

2,620
2,602
2,605

1,390
1,351
1,295

5,756
5,655
5,562

5,142
5,287
4,979

78.0
78.0
77.8

56.4
56.4
56.5

55.1
54.8
55.4

January
February
March

121,035
121,165
120,936

114,055
114,273
114,129

6,980
6,892
6,807

3,106
3,053
3,064

2,568
2,596
2,450

1,306
1,243
1,293

5,550
5,526
5,473

5,113
5,101
5,087

77.9
78.1
77.9

56.6
56.7
56.6

55.9
55.0
54.1

April
May
June

121,328
121,203
121,524

114,660
114,403
115,001

6,668
6,800
6,523

2 9 941
3,065
2,889

2 9 471
2,492
2,485

1,256
1,243
1,149

5,338
5,413
5,163

4,953
4,676
5,073

78.1
78.0
77.8

56.6
56.5
56.6

54.5
54.5
56.2

July
August
September

121,658
122,000
121,984

115,034
115,203
115,370

6,624
6,797
6,614

2 9 832
3,077
2,905

2,565
2,467
2,456

1,227
1,253
1,253

5,215
5,491
5,293

5,102
4,972
4,862

77.8
78.0
77.9

56.7
56.8
56.8

55.9
56.1
56.0

October
November . . . . . . .
December

122,091
122,510
122,563

115,573
115,947
116,009

6,518
6,563
6,554

2,911
2,996
2,953

2,413
2,445
2,422

1,194
1,122
1,179

5,176
5,273
5,317

4,727
4,819
5,033

77.8
77.8
77.8

57.0
57.4
57.3

55.2
55.1
55.2

January
February
March

123,428
123,181
123,264

116,711
116,853
117,136

6,716
6,328
6,128

2,938
2,853
2,688

2,455
2,306
2,367

1,323
1,168
1,073

5,295
5,024
5,028

4,837
4,697
4 S 709

78.1
78.1
78.1

57.7
57.5
57.5

56.0
54.8
54.9

April
May
June

123,659
123,610
124,102

117,113
117,215
117,541

6,546
6,395
6,561

2,952
2,705
2,737

2,448
2 S 480
2,570

1,146
1,210
1,254

5,247
5,104
5,131

4,930
4,609
4,801

78.3
77.9
78.2

57.6
57.7
57.7

55.7
55.8
56.6

July
August
September

123,956
124,018
124,040

117S459
117,597
117,456

6,497
6,421
6,584

2,734
2,790
3,038

2 9 613
2,468
2,353

1,150
1,163
1,193

5,218
5,183
5,255

4,505
4,553
4,612

77.9
77.8
77.9

57.9
57.8
57.8

55.2
56.5
55.6

124,105
124,515

117,545
117,786

6,561
6,729

2,902
2,992

2,472
2,492

1,187
1,245

5,218
5,354

4,466
4,556

78.0
78.0

57.5
57.8

56.6
57.0

1987

leas

1989

October .
November
December

. . .

See note on page 80.

Graphs of these series are shorn on page §1,

ICII

1989




OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

I
H RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES
Federal Government l
Year
and
month

500. Surplus
or deficit

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

50.1. Receipts

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

HH DEFENSE INDICATORS

State and local government l

502. Expenditures

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

510. Surplus
or deficit

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Advance measures of defense activity

511. Receipts

512. Expenditures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

517. Defense
Department
gross obligations incurred

(Mil. dol.)

525. Defense
Department
prime contract awards

543. Defense
Department
gross unpaid
obligations
outstanding

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

548. Manufacturers'
new orders,
defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

1987

January
February
March

-199^4

86CL7

I 5 06o!i

46^3

637 !i

59618

25,911
34,669
28,986

11,166
13,121
12,272

196,585
199,440
199,308

6,129
7,650
9,769

April
May
June

-137.7

926.2

1,063.8

6C)'.4

658.9

598^5

33,794
32,801
30,475

11,359
11,782
12,104

200,411
202,504
204,177

11,265
9,907
10,128

July
August
September

-143.9

921.5

1,065.5

50.5

659^6

609 !i

31,867
32,619
34,065

12,913
13,595
13,683

207,148
209,556
215,074

9,882
9,179
9,102

October
November
December

-leiii

937^4

1,101.7

4816

668.9

620 !9

29,233
30,794
24,532

10,555
9,353
11,820

212,355
212,086
205,974

9,864
9,824
7,036

January
February
March

-isiis

944^7

1,096^5

5CL8

684! 8

63416

31,157
33,243
31,595

8,289
11,821
12,096

208,366
210,637
212,335

9,223
8,480
8,065

April
May
June

-14l'.5

973-2

1,114*.7

52^4

699^2

646 !7

33,172
32,294
36,167

15,035
13,958
13,721

210,520
214,223
219,469

9,871
8,215
13,829

July
August
September

-122^5

977^3

I,099l8

49.8

70616

656^2

29,691
29,004
27,652

17,438
9,758
10,980

219,349
219,239
220,134

6,995
8,037
7,472

October
November
December

-16?!6

994^6

1,16211

45*.7

716°.5

670'.8

31,118
34,783
31,522

217,720
222,122
223,937

10,695
8,391
10,407

January
February
March

-147!5

1,03612

1,183.7

48^8

732l6

683! 8

31,580
30,058
30,859

226,193
224,553
219,856

6,815
8,159
10,461

April
May
June

-145.4

1,053.2

1,198.6

47.5

742.6

695.1

31,395
30,056
29,495

222,194
221,337
216,120

8,551
7,572
8,938

r-144.*7

rl,043.2

rl,187.9

r44.9

r750.3

r705.5

30,996
p28,530

220,028
p217,509

7,626
7,956
rlO,639

1988

(NA)

1989

July
August
September

(NA)

(NA)

r9,668
pll,173

October
November . . . . . . .
December
See note on |
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
Based on national income and product accounts.

1

90



DECEMBER 1989

OTHER IMPORTANT
1 I
}

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Ill

DEFENSE INDICATORS-Continued
National defense
purchases

Intermediate and final measures of defense activity
Year
and
month

557. Index of
industrial
production,
defense and
space equipment
(1977 = 100)

559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense
products

561. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

580. Defense
Department
net outlays,
military

(Mil. dol.)

588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

570. Employment, defense
products industries

(Thous.)

Defense Department
personnel
577. Military
on active
duty (u)
(Thous.)

578. Civilian,
direct hire
employment
(Thous.)

564. Federal
purchases of
goods and
services,
national
defense
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

565. National
defense purchases as a
percent of
GNP

(Percent)

1987

January
February
March

187.3
188.9
188.6

31,122
31,233
31,169

158,833
157,779
158,084

22,243
24 9 096
23,259

89755
8,704
9,464

1,590
1,589
1,590

2,179
2,172
2,168

1,060
1,066
1,069

288 '.6

6.6

April
May
June

189.2
189.3
188.6

31,597
31,624
31,709

160,358
160,898
161,816

23,593
22,760
24,046

8,991
9,367
9,210

1,583
1,584
1,577

2,158
2,153
2,151

1,070
1,070
1,076

294 '.0

6*.6

July
August
September

188.7
189.1
189.8

32,174
32,553
32,668

162,605
162,741
162,316

22,858
24,340
21,513

9,093
9 9 043
9,527

1,577
1,576
1,574

2,158
2,167
2,174

1,078
1,080
1,088

300.2

eis

October
November
December

190.3
188.7
188.9

33,171
33,936
33,504

163,247
164,130
161,860

25,816
21,276
26,329

8,933
8,941
9,306

1,574
1,572
1,569

2,172
2,174
2,167

1,086
1,085
1,082

296.8

e!i

January
February
March

190.6
191.0
189.9

33,656
33,859
33,945

162,206
162,089
160,841

20,786
23 9 441
23,752

8,877
8,597
9,313

1,570
1,566
1,558

2,166
2,162
2,142

1,076
1,071
1,067

297^4

eis

April
May
June .

187.9
185.5
184.6

34,069
34,695
35,328

162,171
162,009
167,117

26,548
20,130
23,765

8,541
8,377
89721

1,559
1,557
1,556

2,108
2,100
2,104

1,060
1,054
1,045

298 '.6

6^2

July
August
September

184.9
184.9
184.5

34,799
34,071
34,839

165,449
164,451
163,092

24,243
23,321
20,636

8,663
9,035
8,830

1,550
1,548
1,542

2,111
2,122
2,138

1,034
1,039
1,048

296. "l

s.'o

October
November . . . . . . .
December

184.0
182.2
180.5

35,410
35,351
35,373

165,356
165,087
165,397

27,027
24,443
26,357

8,431
8,660
10,097

1,536
1,534
1,530

2,130
2,130
2,122

1,044
1,044
1,048

300 ! 5

6*6

January
February
March

180.0
179.3
178.7

35,777
35,793
36,416

163,482
163,238
165,250

20,843
23,426
26,053

8,730
8,403
8,449

1,530
1,529
1,529

2,124
2,123
2,116

1,054
1,058
1,058

298.7

5*.8

April
May
June

179.9
180.7
181.1

36,362
36,786
36,776

165,168
164,043
163,756

21,035
24,087
26,829

8,633
8,697
9,225

1,528
1,530
1,526

2,110
2,111
2,115

1,061
1,063
1,059

301.3

5^8

July
August
September

182.0
r!82.7
r!82.1

37,100
37,402
r37 9 031

163,189
162,209
r!63,616

21,068
23,926
p29,634

8,193
8,936
r9 9 232

1,522
1,515
rl,513

2,117
2,126
2,130

1,055
1,066
1,075

r307.8

5^8

October
November
December

r!75.7
p!77.1

p37 5 710

r!64 9 925
p!67 9 284

r8,359
p8 5 814

pi, 506

p2,128

pl,069

1988

1989

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

See note on page 80.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.

iicsi DECEMBER 1989



91

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

H MERCHANDISE TRADE
I
602. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments

604. Exports of domestic
agricultural products

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery

612. General imports

Year
and
month

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

616. Imports of automobiles and parts

614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum
products

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

1987

January
February
March

18,377
19,371
19,981

1,926
2,047
2,157

3,452
4,404
4,098

32,189
31,186
32,247

2,269
3,598
3,513

4,882
6,322
5,329

April
May
June

20,250
20,111
21,381

2,234
2,410
2,445

4,122
4,176
4,338

32,317
33,484
34,141

2,842
3,685
3,375

5,516
6,093
5,823

July
August
September

22,472
20,845
21,669

2,956
2,520
2,625

4,260
4,420
4,717

34,927
34,506
34,015

4,125
4,574
3,439

5,800
6,008
5,307

October
November
December

22,136
23,327
24,187

2,593
2,409
2,472

4,407
5,371
5,371

36,253
35,219
35,758

3,780
3,292
3,158

6,776
6,342
6,560

January . . .
February
March

24,669
24,839
26,762

2,759
2,893
3,033

5,040
5,177
5,442

35,165
36,325
36,338

3,541
3,536
3,225

5,441
5,659
5,677

April
May
June

26,040
27,446
26,706

3,027
3,382
3,120

5,288
5,374
5,353

35,360
36,137
37,304

3,226
3,802
3,060

6,220
5,507
5,351

July
August
September

26,612
27,478
27,578

3,311
3,357
3,493

5,457
5,778
5,876

35,074
37,623
36,750

3,122
3,360
2,927

5,378
5,888
6,354

October
November
December .

27,889
27,538
28,864

3,090
2,909
2,995

5,698
5,709
6,393

37,121
38,087
39,668

2,718
2,645
3,347

6,589
6,291
6,946

January . . .
February
March

28,980
28,839
30,064

3,143
3,201
3,666

5,338
5,990
6,162

37,877
38,220
39,549

3,619
3,326
4,095

5,627
6,326
6,282

April
May
June

30,758
30,455
31,285

3,387
3,618
3,638

6,150
4,937
6,382

39,045
40,534
39,293

4,730
4,680
4,001

5,869
5,770
5,289

July
August
September

30,468
30,561
r30,680

3,657
3,139
3,274

6,371
6,290
6,413

38,709
40,662
r39,194

4,130
4,227
4,000

5,621
5,426
6,215

October
November
December

31,008

3,173

6,412

41,210

4,141

5,894

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1988

1989

(NA)

(NA)

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.

92



DECEMBER 1989

iiCIl

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
LS. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued

GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS)
Merchandise, adjusted

Goods and services
Year
and
month

667. Balance

(Mil. dol.)

668. Exports

(Mil. dol.)

669. Imports

(Mil. dol.)

622. Balance

(Mil. dol.)

618. Exports

(Mil. dol.)

x

;
Income on investment

620. Imports

(Mil. dol.)

651. U.S. investment abroad

(Mil. dol.)

;

652. Foreign
investment in
the United States

(Mil. dol.)

1987

January
February
March

-31,190

104, 3i5

135,505

-38,661

57,255

95,91(5

25,117

19,755

April
May
June

-35,555

105,694

141,249

-39,819

60,615

99,834

22,744

20 9 554

July
August
September

-36,687

110,922

147,609

-40,606

64,297

104,903

23,578

21,904

October
November
December

-26,055

125, 2.11

151,266

-40,4i4

68,699

10'9.',il3

33,265

20,207

January
February
March

-28,682

127,810

156,492

-33,446

76,447

109,893

26,750

23,955 ,

April
May
June

-30,586

126,800

157,386

-31,411

78,471

109,882

23,148

25,613

July
August
September

-28,964

131,573

160,537

-30,339

80,604

110,943

24,720

27,310

October
November .
December

-23,659

143,626

167,285

-32,019

83,729

115,748

33,159

28,670

-26,864

142,169

169,033

-28,378

87,9i9

116,297

26,830

29,246

April
May
June

r-29,216

r!45,921

r!75,137

-27,554

91,423

118,977
...

r26 5 644

r32,765

July
August
September

p-19,031

pll9,320

p33,808

p31 5 i97

1988

1989

January
February
March

«
p!54,636

p!73,667

p-27,751

p91,569

October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department
of Defense purchases (imports).
1

ItCIft

DECEMBER 1989




93

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F

I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

IHI INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
47. United States,
index of industrial production

Year
and
month

(1977 = 100)

721.0ECD 1
European countries, index of
industrial
production

(1977 = 100)

728. Japan,
index of industrial production

(1977 = 100)

725. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production

(1977 = 100)

726. France,
index of industrial production

722. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production

(1977 = 100)

(1977 = 100)

727. Italy, index
of industrial
production

(1977 = 100)

723. Canada,
index of industrial production

(1977 = 100)

1987

January
February . . . . . . . .
March

126.2
127.1
127.4

113
116
116

142.2
141.5
143.6

112
113
113

105
109
110

110
113
112

114.2
117.6
120.2

124.9
126.4
127.1

April
May
June

127.4
128.2
129.1

116
117
116

142.5
140.2
145.5

116
117
114

109
110
111

113
114
112

117.9
122.3
118.7

127.9
127.6
128.9

July
. .
August
September

130.6
131.2
131.0

117
116
117

146.7
146.7
149.0

114
117
116

111
111
111

115
116
114

118.1
113.2
117.5

130.5
132.0
133.2

October
November
December

132.5
133.2
133.9

119
119
118

151.4
152.0
153.7

117
117
116

111
112
112

117
116
117

122.7
121.2
116.5

134.3
135.3
135.6

January
February . .
March

134.4
134.4
134.7

120
119
120

154.4
158.5
157.9

117
117
117

112
112
113

117
115
117

126.9
121.5
124.1

136.0
136.2
137.4

April
May
June

135.4
136.1
136.5

120
120
121

157.8
156.4
159.2

117
118
120

112
113
115

117
118
119

124.8
123.1
125.4

137.5
138.8
139.0

July
August
September . . . . . . .

138.0
138.5
138.6

122
123
123

157.9
162.3
162.5

118
122
121

116
116
117

119
119
120

128.5
126.0
124.1

138.6
140.6
140.2

October
November
December . . . . . . .

139.4
139.9
140.4

r!23
124
124

160.6
165.2
165.7

121
r!21
122

rl!4
118
117

119
r!20
rl!9

127.6
129.1
132.2

139.0
138.2
139.2

140.8
140.5
140.7

125
124
124

167.4
164.4.
173.2

r!23
122
122

118
117
117

118
118
118

127.9
130.3
126.9

138.9
139.5
139.2

141.7
141.6
142.0

r!27
r!24
126

167.0
168.0
171.4

126
120
125

120
118
120

118
rl!7
rl!7

127.0
125.2
128.9

140.2
140.4
139.9

July
August
September

141.9
r!42.5
r!42.1

r!28
127
p!27

167.1
172.1
169.4

127
127
p!27

121
121
pl!8

118
120
pl!9

130.7
r!29.1
p!28.7

139.6
139.9
p!40.5

October . . . . . . . . .
November
December

r!41.3
p!41.5

(NA)

p!69.3
(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1988

1989

January
February
March
April
May
June

.

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 58.
1
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

94



DECEMBER 1989

HOI

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

UH CONSUMER PRICES
United States
Year
and
month

320. Index @

(1982-84=100)

Japan

320c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

738. Index ©

(1982-84=100)

West Germany

738c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

735. Index ©

(1982-84=100)

United Kingdom

France

735c. Change
over 6-month
spans x

(Ann. rate,
percent)

736. Index©

(1982-84=100)

736c. Change
over 6-month
spans *

(Ann. rate,
percent)

732. Index ©

(1982-84=100)

732c. Change
over 6-month
spans *

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1987
January
February
March .

111.2
111.6
112.1

5.0
5.1
5.3

103.9
103.9
104.3

2.5
0.6
1.5

104.6
104.7
104.7

1.3
1.5
1.2

119.6
119.8
120.0

4.1
3.9
3.4

117.5
118.0
118.2

5.4
3.8
2,6

April
May
June

112.7
113.1
113.5

4.4
4.5
4.0

105.3
105.5
105.3

2.1
3.3
2.1

105.0
105.0
105.2

1.7
1.7
1.0

120.6
120.8
121.1

2.2
2.5
2.5

119.6
119.7
119.7

2.2
2.0
2.7

July
August
September

113.8
114.4
115.0

3.8
3.7
3.6

104.7
104.8
105.8

-0.9
1.0
-0.2

105.2
105.1
104.9

0.6
0.4
0.8

121.3
121.6
121.7

2.3
2.3
2.8

119.6
120.0
120.3

3.7
4.6
4.8

October
November
December

115.3
115.4
115.4

3.9
3.3
3.7

105.8
105.3
105.1

0.0
-1.7
-0.6

105.0
105.0
105.2

-0.2
0.0
1.0

122.0
122.1
122.2

2.3
2.2
2.5

120.9
121.5
121.4

4.2
4.0
4.0

January
February
March

115.7
116.0
11.6.5

3.9
4.0
4.4

104.8
104.6
105.0

1.3
-0.2
0.4

105.4
105.6
105.7

1.1
1.7
1.3

122.4
122.6
123.0

2.6
2.8
2.3

121.4
121.8
122.3

3.8
3.8
4.5

April
May
June

117.1
117.5
118.0

4.4
4.7
4.9

105.6
105.7
105.5

1.0
2.3
1.3

106.0
106.2
106.3

2.1
2.3
1.9

123.6
123.9
124.2

3.3
3.4
3.6

124.3
124.8
125.2

5.7
7.7
8.3

July
August
September . . . . . . .

118.5
119.0
119.8

4.8
4.5
4.5

105.3
105.6
106.4

1.3
2.5
1.9

106.3
106.3
106.3

1.5
1.7
1.9

124.7
125.0
125.3

3.3
3.3
3.7

125.4
126.8
127.4

9.5
8.9
8.7

October
November
December

120.2
120.3
120.5

4.8
4.9
5.1

106.9
106.5
106.2

1.7
-0.2
0.9

106.4
106.7
106.9

3.2
3.2
3.8

125.6
125.8
126.0

3.4
3.2
3.5

128.7
129.2
129.6

8.8
7.9
7.2

January
February
March

121.1
121.6
122.3

5.6
6.2
5.9

106.0
105.7
106.2

3.0
3.4
4.0

108.1
108.4
108.6

4.6
4.5
4.3

126.5
126.8
127.2

3.9
4.2
3.7

130.4
131.4
131.9

6.9
7.9
8.3

April
May
June

123.1
123.8
124.1

5.2
4.3
3.6

108.1
108.7
108.6

4.4
4.4
4.4

109.2
109.5
109.6

2.8
2.2
2.2

128.0
128.5
128.7

3.3
3.5
3.2

134.3
135.1
135.6

8.1
7.0
7.9

July
August
September

124.4
124.6
125.0

3.3
2.9

108.4
108.3
109.2

3.2
(NA)

109.5
109.4
109.6

(NA)

129.0
129.2
129.5

3.5
(NA)

135.7
136.1
137.0

7.3
7.4

October
November
December

125.6
125.9

198S

1989

110.0
(NA)

(NA)

:

130.1
(NA)

138.1
139.2

See note on page 80.

Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.

Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.

I O DECEMBER
I I



1989

95

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F

I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

|H CONSUMER PRICES-Continued
Italy
Year
and
month

737. Index ©

(1982-84 = 100)

Q| STOCK PRICES

733c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1

19. United
States, index
of stock
prices, 500
common
stocks ©

748. Japan,
index of
stock
prices @

745. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices ©

746. France,
index of
stock
prices @

742. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices @

747. Italy,
index of
stock
prices ©

743. Canada,
index of
stock
prices ©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

Canada

737c. Change
over 6-month
spans x

(Ann. rate,
percent)

733. Index ©

(1982-84-100)

1987

January
February
March

131.6
132.1
132.6

4.2
4.8
4.5

115.8
116.3
116.8

4.2
4.6
4.4

287.7
305.6
318.1

1,493.7
1,577.6
1,676.0

302.0
278.9
282.4

642.3
660.4
708.3

840.5
916.9
972.3

526.4
502.8
501.8

378.4
395.4
422.5

April
May
June

133.0
133.5
133.9

4.8
6.0
6.5

117.3
118.0
118.4

5.1
5.2
4.7

314.7
314.5
327.8

1,857.4
1,937.7
1,966.6

297.5
295.7
306.9

726.4
703.9
664.8

956.1
- 1,040.9
1,097.5

533.0
519.3
507.5

420.0
416.4
422.6

July
August
September

134.3
134.7
135.6

6.7
6.3
5.6

119.2
119.3
119.3

4.5
3.8
3.9

337.3
358.3
346.6

1,807.8
1,903.4
1,889.0

320.4
333.3
322.8

692.1
705.0
730.1

1,154.7
1,101.1
1,121.0

494.6
459.7
451.7

455.4
451.3
440.9

October
November
December /

136.9
137.2
137.5

5.3
3.9
3.6

119.7
120.2
120.3

3.2
2.9
3.5

304.8
266.5
262.1

1,833.0
1,677.8
1,655.2

299.4
229.2
219.4

633.1
508.5
484.9

1,027.7
794.1
810.4

449.8
366.8
361.1

341.2
336.5
357.1

January
February
March

138.2
138.5
139.2

3.4
. 3.5
4.0

120.6
121.0
121.6

3.5
4.4
4.2

272.5
280.8
289.1

1,656.1
1,797.8
1,910.6

208.4
218.4
232.4

465.0
501.8
510.3

863.3
858.5
888.0

348.9
334.0
377.1

345.4
362.1
374.4

April
May
June

139.6
140.0
140.5

4.5
6.0
5.8

122.0
122.8
123.0

4.4
5.2
4.7

285.7
278.6
294.4

1,961.2
1,963.0
1,979.2

230.8
225.4
240.6

523.6
546.1
609.5

879.6
878.4
906.7

383.2
359.7
372.7

377.4
367.1
388.9

July
August
September

140.9
141.5
142.2

6.0
7.1
7.0

123.7
124.1
124.2

4.8
3.6
3.6

292.7
286.9
291.5

1,972.0
1,988.3
1,924.2

247.6
248.1
254.8

632.4
618.7
636.1

932.0
908.5
872.4

399.7
416.5
392.9

381.6
371.3
371.0

October
November .
December

143.3
144.5
145.0

6.9
6.7
7.0

124.8
125.1
125.1

4.4
4.2
4.6

301.8
294.8
300.8

1,923.3
2,008.1
2,084.8

266.3
266.5
273.7

682.9
698.4
746.7

908.5
899.5
865.1

431.9
432.9
426.4

383.7
372.3
383.0

January
February
March

146.1
147.3
148.0

7.8
6.9
7.4

125.7
126.6
127.2

4.5
6.2
7.2

310.5
319.8
318.4

2,207.6
2,237.4
2,188.6

284.2
284.2
287.3

799.8
814.5
810.8

926.6
1,007.8
1,029.5

433.8
411.7
409.6

408.7
403.6
404.3

April
May
June

149.0
149.6
150.3

7.0
6.4
6.0

127.6
128.9
129.6

6.4
5.8
6.1

328.8
341.5
352.2

2,231.0
2,284.3
2,241.9

295.9
295.9
309.7

838.9
847.3
885.0

1,023.5
1,053.6
1,065.6

426.8
422.2
447.0

409.9
418.9
425.0

July
August
September

150.7
150.9
151.6

5.7
5.4

130.4
130.5
130.7

5.7
4.4

361.1
377.0
377.8

2,287.9
2,383.6
2,378.2

313.4
328.6
338.2

890.5
904.1
934.0

1,107.8
1,149.9
1,155.9

476.9
506.4
rp511.1

448.7
453.1
445.5

October
November
December

153.1
153.7

377.9
370.1
p378.8

2,417.0
rp2,465.4
p2,598.4

327.0
(NA)

902.3
rp868.5
p921.6

(NA)

rp479.7
rp470.8
p480.1

442.8
445.5
p448.6

1988

1989

131.2
131.6

See note on |
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.




DECEMBER 1989

HOI

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Selected leading index components

Year
and
month

92. Change in manufacturers'
unfilled orders in 1982 dollars.,
durable goods industries 1

Selected lagging index components

83. Index of
consumer expectations 1 2

62. Change in index of labor
cost per unit of output.,
manufacturing

®
Smoothed 3

Actual

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil.

Smoothed 3

Actual 1

dol.)

(1st Q
1966=100)

120. Change in consumer price
index for services 1

Smoothed 3

Actual

(Ann. rate 9
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

5.2
4.1
4.1

3.9
4.0
4.0

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1987

January
February
March

-3.66
-1.17
0.78

-0.79
-1.01
-0.90

80.9
81.6
83.3

11.0
-5.1

2.6

-0.3
-0.6
-0.3

April
May
June

4.20
3.89
3.58

-0.15
0.84
1.78

84.7
80.6
80.8

-9.1
-2.6
-2.6

-1.4
-2.1
-2.6

5.2
4.1
2.0

4.2
4.4
4.1

July
August
September

4.90
2.04

83.3
85.8
84.2

-8.4

-3.7
-2.6

-0.12

2.75
3.23
3.05

13.0

0.1

4.1
6.2
3.0

3.9
4.2
4.1

October
November
December

2.40
1.37
1.16

2.87
2.55
2.18

80.4
72.7
76.7

-7.6

0.7
1.2
0.7

5.1
5.0
4.0

4.2
4.4
4.4

2.58
2.24

2.02
1.95
1.38

80.9
81.9
85.2

0.8
1.4
3.4

6.0
5.0
4.0

4.7
4.9
4.8

1.25
0.99
1.59

82.4
87.3
85.7

-9.1
-3.4

2.9
1.8
1.8

3.9
4.9
3.9

4.7
4.7
4.5

82.3
88.8
89.5

-6.7
-0.9

0.7
0.3

3.9
5.9
3.9

4.4
4.5
4.5

9.2

1.8
-4.3

ISIS
January
February
March

-2.01

April
May
June

2.86

-0.10
6.59

3.6
4.5
13.9

7.2

July
August
September

-0.20

1.90
2.24
2.11

October
November
December

2.81
0.43
6.58

2.12
1.91
2.41

87.0
86.3
85.5

13.8
-8.2
-5.9

2.4
2.2
1.0

5.8
5.8
5.8

4.6
4.9
5.2

2.56
1.06
1.88

2.72
2.68
2.55

89.9
88.8
87.6

1.8
7.2
17/7

0.4
1.0
3.5

4.8
5.7
5.7

5.3
5.4
5.5

3.80

2.64
2.31
2.20

83.2
80.1
82.0

-15.0
0.0
0.9

2.6
1.6
1.0

2.8
5.7
3.7

5.2
5.1
4.8

2.22
1.57

85.5
80.3
88.6

5.3

1.2

rl.7

rl.4
rl.9

6.6
3.7
1.8

4.9
4.8
4.4

87.2
84.3

r25.6
p-11.9

5.6
7.4

4.2
4.6

1.32
3.02

7.2

-0.2

1989

January
February . . .
March
April
May
June

-0.20
2.91

July
August
September

2.81

-2.70
rl.04

October
November
December . . . . . . .

rl.72
p3.15

rl.ll
0.93

pi. 12

4.4

E>r5.4
D5.1

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13 and 15,
1
These series reached high values before 1987: series 92 actual (8.31)s series 92 smoothed (4.40), and series 83 (97.7) in March 1984;
series 62 actual (29.6) in March 1986; and series 120 actual (8.4) in July 1984 and smoothed (5.8) in September 1984.
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the University of Michigan's
Survey Research Center.
3
This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada.

!!ۤ!

DECEMBER 1989




97

for

C.
Year

Jan.

Feb. Mar,
10.

Apr.

May
ne

July
Ju

Aug.

Sept

Oct. Nov. Dec.

11 Q

6,35
8.37
9.89
10.72
8.10
10.01
9.89
10.13
11.21
11.59
13,37
15.04

6,01
8.72
10.56
9.57
8,26
10.35
10.44
9.90
11. 14

6.61
9,45
10.17
9 . 02
9.02
10.46
10.26
10,59
10.95

14.23
15.53

14,08
15.84

16.80
25.18
27.00
26.43
26,17
27,92
35.22
42.79
37.86
43.52
48,84
62.72
82.68
80,98
84,18
89,58
70.64
89.65
95.20
93,85
95.76

17.69
22.53
28.13
23.90
27.27
29.99
37.74
43.44
42.26
44,44
•' 55.46
64,68
78,33
73.73
87.01
74,16
78.06
92,95
92.67
91,03
104.00

2.20
2.50
3,35
3.65
2.7?
3.09

2,24
2.72
3.26
3.55
2.67
3.19

1.91
3,15
3,28
3.52
2.66
3.73

1.96
2.93
3.40
3.15
2.69
3.35

2,00
2.80
3.56
3 ..2 9
2,72
3.46

2 .05
2 .99
3 .60
3 .13
2 .85
3 ,54

2.15
2,97
3.43
3.06
2.75
3.61

2.15
3.15
3,41
3.13
3.13
3.22

2.31
3.33
3.33
2.83
3.14
3.63

2.43
3,20
3.34
2.89
3.04
3.50

2.25
3.45
3.79
2.89
3.00
3,30

2.40
3.45
3.58
2.74
2,91
3.49

1962...
1963...

3.62
3.80

3.94
3,91

3,65
3.88

3.85
3.98

3.68
4,36

3 .61
3

3,65

3.66

3.64

3.73

4.00

4.08

1965...

4.89

4.93

5,22

5.25

5,18

5 .10

5.27

5.08

5.49

5.51

5.45

5.82

1967...
1968...

5,30
7,74

5.69
7.81

5.81
9.63

5 . 7 0 .. 5 , 8 8
7.97
7,32

6 ,11
7 .24

6,05
8,30

6.26
8.39

6.09
7.77

6,19
9.29

6,22
7,98

6,40
8.75

1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...

9.20
8.21
8,75
11.26

8.86
8,94
9.23
11.95

8,37
9,02
9.94
12,01

8.00
8.89
9.81
12.. 6

8.10
8.65
10.79
12.85

7 .80
9 .73
9 .39
12 .73

8.15
8.00
10.47
13.04

7.72
8.88
9.69
13.11

7,94
9.39
11.07
13.02

7.04
8.49
10,65
14.41

8.11
9.25
10.98
14.55

8.90
9.54
11.21
13,90

1975..,
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980,,,
1981,,,
1982...

13.38
14.47
16,36
19.75
25.28
28.44
29.05
31.89

12.45
14.15
16.60
22.45
27,39
26.02
26.37
30.05

12,03
14.90
15.88
20.52
30.01
26,52
28.76
27.64

13.77
14,81
17,54
20.63
27.49
25.86
30.47
26.49

14.34
13.66
19.04
22.75
24.61
22,82
27.97
23.96

14 ,15
15 .97
18 ,88
2 1 ,30
26 ,23
25 ,05
28 ,57
23 ,71

13,24
17,16
17,14
23.25
26,88
26.90
28.71
24.77

14.63
15.32
19.07
24.04
25.21
26.00
27.88
23.07

12,53
16.55
20.55
25,19
26.64
26.67
27,35
24.41

12,52
16.98
18.55
28,64
27,03
27.28
27,59
24.60

12,76
12.04
16.23 16.49
18,30
20,93
24.53
22.71
27,19
27.45
26.43
28.21
26.88
25.81
23.65
25.05

1984...
1985...
1986...
1987...

29.38
29.27
30.19
31,78

29.77
32.98
32.52
31,99

30.50
32.95
31.14
31.99

29,57
30.28
30,64
33.63

32.70
30.52
30,10
34.90

3 0 .68
3 1 ,87
3 0 ,29
35 .47

32.16
31.93
30.64
37.49

29.82
31,63
30,02
35.01

30.27
33.78
31,05
34.52

30,74
33.43
31.76
35,60

30.65
30.14
32.03
35.44

eorrsACTs ASD ORDERS FOR PLAST A»B EQUIPMENT

30,29
33,88
33.50
38.2?

26,05
36.64
41,33
37.83
34.33
41.11
40,62
41.28
45.11
49.49
56.74
63.19
75,32
71,70
98,19
109.24
98.19
106.99
121.98
154.99
176 .77
157.84
186.69
218.84
275,76
321.41
316.20
335,41
309.29
312.15
366.53
382.66
373.88
416,09

TOTAL FOR P KR10D
99.20
135,37
141,03
121.88
107.56
126.53
124.91
126.91
138.42
150,88

8,21
11.59
11.59
10.02
9.88
9.81
10.50
11.26
11.25
12,35
14.21

8,78
12,20
11.10
8.95
9,86
11,14
10,64
10.50
11.13
12.72
14,42

9.32
11,55
11,04
9,21
9.55
.10.75
10.33
10.75
11.38
12.99
14.50

8,60
9.13
12.44 1 2 , 2 9
1 2 . 4 4 11.69
9,19
8.76
9.32
9,02
10,11 1 0 , 6 7
9 . 9 1 10.76
11,47 10.52
1 2 . 2 2 12.61
13.82 13.94
15.52 15.73

24.13
31.55
34.96
35.00
25.45

22.86
32.74
36.41
30,93
25,88

25.16
34,80
34.49
28.79
28,34

30.19
31.24
34.48
35.33

32.05
30.49
34.14
37.71
43.07

31 .67
32.44
33,59
37.09

1 6 . 5 3 17 .19
19*87
19 . 6 6
24.56
23 .08
20,39
19 .51
20,88
2 3 .54
2 5 , 1 2 2 1 .56
2 9 . 3 8 ' 2 8 ,66
31,57
28
2 4 , 1 9 2 3 ,77

16.
22,
22.
20.
19.
24.
29.

17,50
22.78
22.67
19.14
21,22
22.64
29.47

17.06
20.91
25.49
19,89
22,51
25,77
29.12

17.31
24.89
22,74
17.47
20.18
24.79
32.30

17.29
17.63
21.20 23.25
22.46
22.83
20,08
22,01
22.02
22.67
25.50 26.12
32.26
30.78

47.54
68.55
71.52
67,18
64.36
64.83
81.56

49.76
60.91
73,53
60.09
66.10
69.29
86. 14

51,47
66.10
71.09
59.47
62.82
72.64
88.02

52,23
69.34
68,03
59,56
64,87
76.41
95.34

1 88 49
217.80
201.00
264,90
284,17
246 ,30
258.15
283.1?
351.06

22. 0

24,49

20.84

20.78

21.05

19.64

26,76
29,03
35.60
30.20
32.44
26.59
25,91

28,74
31.78
31.68
26.33
29.63
24.03
26,40

25. 1
31.89
34.12
30.08
29.98
24,71
25.65

28,14
32,60
31.89
29.31
28.93
22,97
26.76

30.29
34.08
33.44
29.85
28.19
24.31
28.75

26.88
38.32
33,40
30.46
28.22
24.48
30.12

26.95
32.92
33.11
29.29
27.38
23.49
27.93

30.55
30.19
33.39
30.97
26,21
24.94
27.96

35.22

31.54

32.68

3 4 ,29

33.93

34,12

36.36

36.07

32.77

36.44

65 .34
70.83
75.22
90.29
107.13
96.42
90.91
90.35
70.79
92.26
102.03

71.41
71.46
83.87
90.23
100.62
84,95
92.14
74,29
79.17
96.08
98.51

67.63
77 .77
83.94
98.5?
99.45
89,24
87.10
71,99
81 .16
95.74
104.41

61.47
77.29
84.38
101.43
99.90
90.72
81,81
72,91
86,01
95,75
105.28

265.85
297.35
327 ,41
80.52
07,10
61,33
51.96
09,54
17,13
79.83
10.23

36.22

38,58

39.88

40 .28

42.82

40,28

40.00

41,11

40.29

42.96

107.97
130.10

118.74
132.93

123.10
140.54

124.36
137.00

474.17
540.57

4.91
7.08
8.83
7.77
6.79
8,71
8,66
8.20
9.19
10.1?
12.95
16.01
14. 9
19. 6
24. 3
19. 3
22, 0
25, 5
32. 9
37. 1
32.57
37.32
45,28
56,26
67,80
65.78
74.07
63,57
65.38
79.70
78,16
77.14
89,11
100,73

8,38
9.46
11.90
11.99
8,70
9.59
10.01
10.83
11.09
11.57
14.31

8.50
10.25
11.56
11,55
8,40
9,87
10.23
10.50
12.11
11.94
12.93

7,25
11.84
11.50
11.46
8.35
11.61
9.95
9.91
11.28
11.82
13.43

7.41
11. 10
11.81
10.18
8,42
10.40
10.80
10.07
11.78
12,14
13,55

7,62
10,52
12,24
10.65
8.50
10.66
10.81
9,93
11.29
13,41
14.56

1967...
1968...
1969, ,.
1970, ,.
1971...
1972...
1973.,,
1974.,.
1975.,.

14.98
21.13
24.05
23.50
20.10
20,45
25,98
30.29
23.33

16.09
2.1.30
24.61
22,60
22,03
21,39
27.76
30.92
21,53

16.47
26.12
22.86
21.08
22.23
22.99
27.82
31.71
20.48

16.04
21.38
25.89
20,19
21,68
22,61
28.10
29.71
23,45

1977...
1978...
1979..,
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...

25.39
28.82
33,39
34.10
31.67
32.30
23,61

25.54
32.26
35,72
30.97
28.45
30,27
23,25

24.29
29.21
38.02
31.35
30.79
27,78
23.93

1985...

30,30

36.51

1987...

35.45

36.31

7,83
11.12
12.36
10.10
8.96
10.86
10.44
10.49
11.07
12.16
14.96

2 8 ,37
2 9 .42
3 3 ,34
28 .42
30 .07
23 .67
2 6 ,86

1
1
3
4
9
3
3

NEW O R D E R S l& C O R R E 8 T D O L L A R S , S 0 8 D E F E S S E CAPITAL GOODS I N D U S T R I E S
( B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS)

1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
198...
19 9...
19 0 . . .

1,78
2,09
2.72
2.96
2.28
2.62
2,73

1.86
2.29
2.55
2.96
2.16
2.70
2.83

1.56
2.62
2.68
2.83
2.21
3.06
2.78

1.65
2.30
2.82
2,61
2.25
2.79
2.90

1,61
2.31
2.99
2.63
2.26
2.92
2.89

19 2 . . .
19 3...

3.06
3.21

3,27
3.29

2.92
3.34

3.20
3, 5

3.02
3.49

19 5...
19 6 . . .
19 7 . . .
19 8...
19 9 . . .
19 0...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974..,
1975...
1976,.,
1977...
1978...
1979,,.
1980., a
1981.,,
1982...
1983,.,
1984...
1985.,,
1986,,,
1987,,,
1988...

4.13
4.79
4.43
6.74
6.85
7,18
6,81
7.28
9.49
12.26
11.94
11,25
13,89
16.10
21,13
25.40
25.41
26.98
20.91
25.62
24,83
25,70
27,20
33.87

4.06
5.25
4.69
6.71
7,99
7.09
7.36
8,05
10.04
12,51
10.83
11.62
13,79
'17.76
23.99
23.45
22.48
23.09
18.39
25.80
28,54
27,36
27,28
33.82

4.40
5.17
4,73
8.43
7.44
6.77
7.38
8.37
10,40
12.97
10,30
11.69
13,84
17,44
25.99
23,64
24.98
23,40
19.97
26.33
27,91
26.84
26.88
31.92

4, 4
5. 3
4. 8
7, 7
8. 8
6. 8
7, 2
8. 9
10.80
12.61
11.16
12.37
14.65
18.58
22,1?
23,37
25.92
23.06
21,71
25.64
25.46
25,86
28.73
33.75

4.23
5,37
4.88
6.06
7,64
6.80
7.21
9.12
10,96
12.58
10.83
12.46
14.73
18.88
22.41
20.50
23,92
20.28
21.09
27.73
25,43
25,67
30,63
31,52

2,43
2.77
2.52
2.29
3.03
2.78

2.59
2.84
2.56
2,46
2.79
2.78

2.57
2.84
2,42
2.56
3,04
2.75

2.64
2.88
2.36
2,48
2.93
2.69

2.77
3.21
2.33
2.58
2,74
2,60

2,87
3.07
2.16
2.47
2.96
2.86

,97
.33

3.00
3,36

2.99
3.47

3,06
3.53

3.11
3.54

3,34
3,45

3.15
3.61

5,20
7.00
7.95
8.75
6.65
8.38
S..34
8,26
9.25
9,84

4.46
5.57
5.13
6.99
..7.42
6,68
6,68
8,89
11,00
14.34
11.36
14.08
15,06
19.36
22.82
24,08
24.75
21,29
21,49
27,36
26.68
26,07
32.28
36,21

4,34
5,20
5.24
6.65
7.49
6,36
7.12
8.30
10,74
13.39
11.07
12.86
15.32
20.12
22.65
21.67
24.48
18,99
21.92
25.45
26,98
25.53
29.85
38,81

4.50
5.46
4,99
6,37
8.56
6.62
8.02
9.33
11,15
13,42
10.85
13.36
16.46
21,45
23,64
23.51
23.73
20.35
24.05
26.00
2l,53
26.35
29,39
34,86

4.63
5.36
5.04
7,68
7.29
6.20
7.26
9.01
12.04
12.00
11.07
13.94
16.71
23.07
23.75
23.85
23,16
21.30
25.59
26,03
27.90
27.31
30.22
34.62

4 . 7 2 t. . 5 . 0 5
5.15
5.19
5.12
5.40
6.73
7.27
7,66
7.20
6.79
7.48
7.77
8.15
9.35
9.56
12.31
12.11
11.88
11.61
11.45
10.72
13.31
14.10
15.90
17.14
21.4?
19.95
23.04
23.85
22,52
24.73
23,36
21.29
19.96
20.43
23.20
23,81
26.06
25,70
25.28
29.31
27,31
28.36
30.66
33,03
35,82
39,43

12,59
15.21
13.85
2 .88
2 .28
2 .04
2 ,55
2 .70
29.93
37,74
33.07
34.56
41,52
51,30
71.11
72.49
72.87
73,47
59.27
77.75
81,28
79,90
81,36
99,61

.38
.31
,03
.93
.51
.35
8.17
7.94
10,53
12.42
10.58
12.49
15.90
18,80
23.22
21.91
24.23
20,23
22.58
26,33
27,27
25.61
29.75
35.46

2? .05
36.28
35.17
27.16
27 .89
31.53
31.00
32.74
36.2 1
40.75
45.75

TOTAL FOR P E R I O D

1
2 ,47
3 .02
2 .53
2 .28
.00
.8?

NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user,
'This series contains- revisions beginning with 1979.




18.40
24.46
27.51
23.81
26.27
31,23
39.1?
47.37
40.40
49 .03
56.76
72,48
78,73
79.57.
83.94
72.25
79.35
92,25
97.34
91.71
107 .02

7.08
10.10
10.71
8.52
8,95
10.29
10,03
10,66
11.81
13.34
15.06
16,78
18,48
8.81
6,02
6.60
4,05
7.28
2.84
2.86
3.17
7 .32
49.70
57,78
75.88
81,6?
81.92
80 , 2 8
73.30
84.10
91,68
97,45
97.29
109.31

8,17
11.01
11.80
9.82
8.60
11.06
10,53
10.68
11.21
12,02
14,06

1954.,,
1955.,,
1956...
1957...
1958,,,
1959,,.
I960..,
1961,.,
1962..,
1963...
1964...

MANUFACTURERS'

Annual

i« 1982 DOLLARS'

( B I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S )

24.

IV Q

TOTAL FOR P E R I O B

1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
3958...
1959...

20.

HI Q

IQ

C O N T R A C T S AND O R D E R S FOR PLA8T ASS E Q U I P M E N T IS C U R R E N T COLLARS
( B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS)

5.43
7.59
8,45
7,50
7,31
8,86
8.31
8,93
9.05
10,36
11.76
13.30
16.23
15.36
20.01
23.47
19,66
21.82
26.52
32.89
41,15
33,28
40,30
46.84
60,93
69,11
69.26
72.96
60,63
67.46
78,81
82,19
77,95
91,52
109,88

5.71
8,28
9,16
6,85
7,53
8.63
8.15
8.86
9.60
10,60
12.22
14.40
15.70
15.56
21.68
22-. 15
20.47
23,18
27,92
36.46
35.49
33.24
41,35
49.75
64.49
70,64
71,10
67,81
61,69
72.60
77.79
82.49
82.98
93.91
109,87

21,25
29.95
34.39
30.87
28,28
34.58
33.46
34.25
37.09
40.97
47.28
53.24
63.15
59.46
82.83
91.93
80,60
89.15
103.39
131,5?
151.99
132,16
153.53
183.39
232.98
278.66
278,63
287.71
259.36
264,71
314,05
324,12
317.97
355.90
420.09

(DECEMBER 1989}

C*

for
Year

Jan.
27.

1954...
1955...
1956.,.
1957 . ..
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962. . .
1963...
1964...
1965. ..
1966. . .
1967. . .
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971. . .
1972. . ,
1973...
1975.. .
1976...
1977. ..
1978. . .
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982. . .
1983...
1984...
1985...
1986...
1987...
1988. . .

Feb.

Mar.

MANUFACTU RERS1

A Dr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

6.88
8.40
8.72
9.30
6.56
8.12
8.31
8,10
9.65
9.71
10.29
11.78
14.96

5.7
9.5
9.1
8.8
6.7
9.18
8.18
8,10
8.59
9.88
11.03
12.75
14.68

6.07
8.37
9.50
8.14
6.81
8.34
8.50
8.05
9.40
9.89
10.83
12.58
15.08

5.94
8.41
9,98
8.19
6.85
8.70
8.50
7.85
8.87
10.29
12.01
12.23
15.12

6.08
8.94
10.04
7.86
6.89
8.88
8.46
8,29
8.75
9,77
12.35
12.63
14.89

6.47
8.74
9.21
7.81
6.94
8.93
8.18
8.67
8.82
9.86
11.36
12 .87
15.57

6.43
9.23
9.36
7.88
7.44
8.22
8.19
9.10
8,81
10.20
11.48
12.50
14.49

7.18
9.02
9.21
7.40
7.78
8.95
8.10
8.59
9.02
10.35
11.42
12.94
15.18

7.15
9.24
9.27
7.19
7.52
8,63
7.94
8.67
9.14
10.38
11.70
13.33
14.81

17.96
17.72
17.86
16.46
16.95
22.02

17 ,84
20.64
17.65
17 .98
18.56
23.49

22.38
19.18
16.66
18.10
19.26
24.24

15.94
19.63
16.89
17.28

15.57
19.21
15.68
19,69

18,32
18.88
16.53
15.82

17.41
19.03
15.53
16,93

16,60

19.96

20.86
18.29
21.45
23.43
27.97
30.56
27 .81
27.38
20.88

18.74
18.50
21.08
25.36
31.32

17.49
19.20
21.05
24.68
32.84
28.06

1 J.22
2 2.83
1 5.51
1 7.48
1
2 5.11
7.17
1 8.97
19.72
2 2.20
2 3.09
2 8.76
2 7.37

6.75
9.63
10.24
7.08
7 .80
8.07
7.69
8.96
9.84
10.11
11.81
13.56
14.16
13.76
17.44

25.23
26.38
18.23
20.08
22.05
26.25
28.93
23.73

23,84
25.45
17 .77
20.06
23.81
25.93
29.63
24.96

24.99
28.66
19.15
22.43
22.31
26.52
29.11

24.38
25.82
18.47
20.30
22 .40
27 .26
28.78
24.55

16.39
19.16
21.76
25.14
25.21
18.02
20.89
24.11
28.98
29.80
26.39

15.26
17.20
21.03
27 .31
21.90
18,35
21.50
24.11
30.86
29,49
26.74

16,62
18.43
21.80
27 .58
21.32
18.86
20.70
23.38
28.86
28.21
25.10

23.27
18.43

23.52
20.28

23.12
22.12

20.34
21.42

20.23
2 3 . 16

21.24
22.18

26.24
28.31
31,40
39,89

32.45
31.67
32.18

30.61
30.44
31.73

27.14
29.02
34.29

28.06
29.38
36.16

30.14
30.10
35 .30

29.20
29.70
38.32

18.89
22.52
26.94
29.93
29.81
35,82

20.26
24,96
27.56
31.63
30.30
35.57

21,17
26.36
27 .61
31.12
30.65
36.45

19 .81
23.84
28.09
28.42
31.61
36.19

32.6
36.3
39.2
37.9
40.6
43.2
42.8
46.2

33.2
36.9
39.5
37.9
40.6
43.6
42.6
46.9
49.3

53.5
58.0
63.5
65.8
67.2

57.6
64.1
65.0
67.0

58.8
64.9
67.7

76.8
76.9

75.7
77.2

93.4
99 .2
92.3
95.2
99.3
00.9
09.2
08.7
09,5
02.5
97.9

94.5
99.6
91.0
96.5
99.7
100,6
108.8
110.5
109,6
101.1
98.7

75.9
76.3
82.8
90.9
98.9
91.9
94.3
100.9
100.4
109.0
110.6
108,4
103.3
97.9

1985. . .
1986...
1987...
1988...

120.5
125,4
124,9
136.0

21.7
25.2
26.4
136.2

123.4
127,1
137.4

33.2
37.8
38.8
38.3
41.5
42.2
43.3
47.1
49.3

19.20
25.63
27.25
27.49

18.09
25.72
29.52
24.19

20.08
26 ,99
27,78
23.09

21.09
28.79
29.25
20.85

78.46
107 .13
113.80
95.62

8.72
8.45
8.51
9.28
10.55
12.08
14.49
14.23
14.44
18.86

25 .19
24.52
24.26
27.27
29.04
32.87
!
36.52
43.36
37.77
58.18

25.92
25,46
24.19
27 .02
29.95
35.19
37.44
45.09
39.93
50.73

26.10
24.47
26.36
26.65
30.41
34.26
38.31
45 .24
41 ,59
52 .33

25.42
24.08
26.14
28.26
31.04
35.59
-41.38
43 .20
41,79
56 .26

102,63
98.53
100.95
109.20
120.44
137.91
153,65
176,89
161,08
2 17 .50

18.31
19.32
22.41
27.05
20.80
17.46
21.70
24.93
26 .56
29.16
27.24
21.64
20.34
24.7 1
27 .22
32.35

52.17
52.54
54.77
69.75
82.95
57.09
55 .99
63.58
73.47
92.13
86.67

48.08
54.45
58.08
74.18
79.00
54.97
59.86
68.06
78.27
87.32
76.06

48.45
51.91
61.68
74.51
79,69
55.64
63,62
68.82
82.76
87 ,69
77.94

50.19
54.95
65 .24
81,94
64.02
54.67
63.90
72.42
86.28
86.86
79.08

74.17
59.59
80.86
89.30

63.69
66.70
83.63
85 .34

60.39
69.66
83.18
90.76

38.44

95.31

105.75

109.71

61.32
74.91
82.92
91 .89
95.06
111.08

198.89
213.85
239 . 7 7
300,38
305 .66
222,37
243,37
272,88
320,78
354,00
319.75
302.75
259.57
270,86
330.59
357 ,29
363.79
421.85
490.67

5.2
8.6
8.1
8.3
2.5
2.4
5.3
8,9
1.8

35.5
38.9
37.7
38.5
43.3
42.6
45.5
48.5
51.9

59.2

0.6

61.6

35.7
39.1
37,8
39.3
42.3
42.3
45.7
48.4
52.5
56 .8
62.2

67.4
71.2

7.0
1.7

66.4
72.2

67 .4
72.7

74.9
79.3
85.1
96.5
97.8
92.5

75 ,2
81.5
85,2
93.8
97.8
91.7

74.6
81,9
87.2
94.8
96.6
91.9

74.7
82.2
88.7
96.1
96.8
90.9

75.6
81.5
89.7
97.4
95,3
93.0

75.7
82.4
90.2
97.3
95.2
94.6

100.2
101.8
110.7
106.4
110.9
94.9
104.1

100.1
102.5
110,9
106.0
106.2
97.1
107 .0

99.5
105.1
111.0
108.6
108.6
96.3
109.0

100.3
105.4
110.7
09.1
07 ,1
94.5
07 .8

100.4
106.7
10.0
09. 1
04.7
96.1
09.6

100.5
108.7
108.8
109.5
104.4
95.8
112.8

100.0

99.7

99.9

100.4

109.0
109.9
109.2
102.3
98.2

109.4
106.2
111.3

22,3
135.3
138.2

125.4
124.9
135.6
139.2

121.6
124.7
126.1
136.5

122.7
123.6
128,1
138.4

110.9
07 .0
08.6
96.1
06.7
18.8
24.1
21.9
31.9
39.8

109,8
09.2
05.4
95.5
10.1
19,5
25 .4
23.3
135,1
138.8

34.3
38.1
38.7
38.3
41.4
42.3
44.2
48.0
50.3

34.3
38.5
38.7
38.6
41.6
41.7
44.8
48.8
50.0

35.1
38.3
38.9
38.5
41.6
42.0
44.5
48.0
50.0

58.6

58.7

59.1

60.2

65.5
69.0

65.5
70.2

65.7
70.6

66.3
70.7

74.9
77.4

75.3
78.5

93.6
97.8
91.9

93.9
99.3
90.1

74.4
79.2
85.1
94.5
98.1
91.1

98.7
1 02.7
108.2
107.9
1 12.0
98.3
100,7

99.8
101.3
110.4
105.4
110.8
98.5
101.2

100,7
103.2
109.5
105.4
111.1
97.0
104.5

125.9
127.9
137.5

123.3
127.6
138.8

121.5
128.9
139.0

A V E R A G E FOR P E R I O D

31.9
36.2
39.2
37.9
39.5
42,6
42.2
45,9
48.4
53.1
57.4
63.3
65 .1
67.6
72.1

34.0
37,4
38.8
38.6
41.3
42.6
43.6
47.7
50.0

122.2
130,5
138.6

121.7
132.0
140.6

121.9
133.2
140.2

122.6
134.3
139.0

30.9
32.7
36.5
39.1
37,8
40.3
43.5
42.8
46.4
48.8
53,9
58. 1

30.5
33.8
37.8
38.8
38.4
41.4
42.4
43.7
47 .6
49.9
54.4
58.8

30,7
34.9
38.5
38.6
38.5
41.9
42.0
44.9
48.6
50.6
55.1
60.0

31.4
35.8
39.1
37.8
39.1
42.7
42.4
45.7
48,4
52.5
56 .7
62.4

65.2
67.3
74.0
76.1
76.8
82 .4
92.9
99.2
91.7

65.6
69.9
74.5
74.9
78.4
84.7
94.0
98.4
91.0

66.9
7 1.2
74.6
74.9
80.9
85 .8
95.0
97.4
92 .0

67.1
72.3
75,1
75.3
82.0
89.5
96,9
95,8
92.8

961. D I F F U S I O N I N D E X O F A V E R A G E W E E K L Y HOURS O F P R O D U C T I O N OR N O N S U P E R V I S O R Y
WORKERS-U
1954. ..
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960. . .
1961. . .
1962...
1963...
1964. ..
1965. . .

92.5
35.0
5.0
7 ,5
2.5
5 .0
2.5
5.0
82.5
0.0
60.0

82.5
30.0
77.5
17 .5
62.5
12.5
57 .5
60,0
42.5

82.5
25.0
22.5
62.5
72.5
32.5
57.5
77,5
55,0

52.5

75.0

1967 . . .
1968..,
1969...
1970...
19-71. ,.
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975.,,
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985...
1986...
1987.,,
1988...

72.5
15.0
52.5
35.0
75.0
50.0
42.5
27.5
27.5
92.5
15.0
2,5
32.5
52.5
60.0
5,0
80.0
70.0
27,5
30,0
57.5
37.5

5.0
90.0
17.5
17.5
22.5
72.5
92.5
42.5
10.0
27.5
97.5
77,5
50.0
42.5
22,5
95,0
12,5
85.0
20.0
17,5
80,0
32,5

47.5
15.0
87.5
32.5
72,5
57.5
50.0
37.5
30.0
35.0
35.0
87,5
70.0
2.5
60,0
17.5
100,0
12,5
97.5
87,5
17.5
62.5

75.0
45.0
82.5
42.5
42.5
60.0
42.5
62.5

22,5
42.5
80.0
32.5
25.0
70.0
40.0
35.0

67;5
57.5
77.5
20.0
17.5
42.5
82.5
77.5

57.5
5.0
37.5
52.5
90,0
85.0
5.0
57.5

15.0
30.0
90.0
42.5
12.5
70.0
62.5
22.5

70.0
35.0
47.5
72.5
7.5
17.5
30.0
77.5

30.0
45.0
35.8
75.8
30.0
69.2
54.2
60.0

85.0

30.0

55.0

42.5

27 .5

30.0
90,0
52.5
35.0
75.0
12.5
27.5
90.0
50.0
95.0
40,0
5,0
87.5
15.0
82.5
77.5
57.5
12.5
80,0
45.0
92,5
30.0

55.0
60.0
40.0
60.0
52.5
80.0
32.5
40.0
80.0
22,5
82.5
67.5
55.0
22.5
15,0
77,5
92.5
45.0
77,5
45.0
45.0
57.5

72.5
35.0
32.5
82.5
55.0
30.0
57.5
30.0
75.0
70.0
22.5
60.0
62.5
37.5
35.0
42,5
80.0
50.0
35,0
35.0
57.5
52.5

62.5
55.0
52,5
20.0
27 .5
62.5
32.5
50.0
87.5
17.5
52.5
32.5
40.0
87.5
52.5
42.5
57,5
27.5
75.0
80.0
72,5
27,5

52.5
82.5
62.5
10.0
17.5
47.5
85.0
22.5
72.5
27.5
62.5
45.0
65.0
80.0
15.0
30.0
97,5
72.5
62.5
55,0
25.0
80,0

70.0
50.0
42.5
47.5
27.5
75.0
87.5
57.5
25.0
27.5
50,0
75.0
65.0
37.5
42.5
65.0
65.0
62.5
32.5
7.5
62.5
45,0
90.0
52.5

77 .5
32.5
70.0
17.5
45.0
47.5
77.5
70.0
70.0
7.5
72.5
57,5
37.5
70.0
50,0
80.0
22.5
75.0
42.5
62.5
47.5
70,0
40.0
43. 0

72.5
22.5
37.5
45 .0
70.0
60.0
77.5
20,0
32.5
15.0
90.0
57.5
37,5
47.5
62,5
82.5
32.5
60.0
40.0
50.0
90,0
60.0
27.5
22.5

62.5
60.0
41.7
40.0
52.5
28.3
56.7
60.0
61.7
35.8
22.5
51.7
49.2
55.8
50.8
32.5
47.5
39.2
64.2
55.8
48.3
45,0
51.7
44.2

17.5
57.5
17.5
27.5
20.0
45.0
90.0
55.0
10.0
70.0
25.0
• 80,0
82.5
0.0
42.5
55,0
25.0
95.0
100.0
12,5
37,5
10.0
77.5




30.9
34.3
38,0
38.6
38.4
41.6
42.6
44,3
47 .7
50.4
55.0
59.8
64.3
66 ,2
70,2
74.6
75,3
79.5
85 .6
94.7
97.7
91 ,9
100.0
103,3
109.8
08,1
08.6
98.0
04.3
17 .0
23.4
23.4
30.3
38,4

A V E R A G E FOR P E R I O D

30,0
4 .0
9 .5
3 .5
2 .5
9 .5
3 .0
6 .5

5.0
10.0
65.0
70.0
80.0
45.0
25.0
85.0

i T h i s series contains revisions b e g i n n i n g with 1986.
series contains rsvislons beginning with 1984.
This siries contains revisions beginn ng with 1983,

2
Fhis
3

102.1

58.3
70,0
47.5
40.0
75.0
37.5
80.0
77.5
20.0

Annual

7.19
9.92
9.74
6.58

7 2 3 . CANADA — I N D E X OF I N D U S T R I A L P R O D U C T I O N 2
( 1977=100)

30.8
32.4
36.3
38.6
37.5
39,8
43.6
42.9
46.0

IV Q

II Q

ERIOD

6.58
7.68
9.38
9.35
6.93
7,89
8.03
8.06
9.03
9.45
11.55
11.99
13.72

1954., .
1955 . . .
1956...
1957...
1958..,
1959...
1960...
1961. ..
1962. . .
1963. . ,
1964...
1965..,
1966...
1967 , . .
1968...
1969. . .
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975. . .
1976. . .
1977...
1978...
1979, . .
1980. . .
1981...
1982...
1983...

III Q

I Q

Dec.

NEW ORDERS IN 1982 D O L L A R S , N O N D E F E & SE CAPITAL GOODS I N D U S T R I E S 1
( B I L L I O N S OF DOLLA I S )

35.0
34.2
65.8
59.2
46.7
74.2
45.8
57 .5
50.8
44.2
48.3
47.5
55.8
40.0
38.3
57.5
60.8
38.3
46.7
66.7
47.5
67.5
51,7
47.5
26 ,7
50.8
60.0
81.7
52,5
56.7
42.5
49.2
55.0

45 .8
53.3
55.0
48.3
80.0
31.7
28.3
57,5
55.0
58.3
50.0
41.7
43.3
62.5
57 .5
49 .2
37.5
33,3
46.7
58,3
34.2
78.3
38.3
45.8
45.8
55.8
68,3
34.2
38.3
78.3
50.0
57.5
56,7
51,7
53.3

70.0
55.8
47 .5
23.3
58,3
55.8
36.7
57 .5
32.5
52 ,5
71.7
73.3
35.0
50.0
36.7
47.5
60.8
80.8
49.2
42.5
16.7
70.8
63.3
46.7
51.7
51.7
75.8
40.0
65.8
38.3
40.0
66,7
58.3
52.5
40.0

54.0
63,1
41.9
37.7
60.0
55.
35.
64.
46 .
57 .
54.
55 .
50.
47 ,
47.
41 .
57 .
54.
50.
33.3
59.6
50.2
52.3
51.2
51.5
50,8
43.1
50.8
65,6
49.6
57.3
50.6
51.2
48.1

(DECEMBER 1989)

99

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

I'Q

961. D I F F U S I O N I N D E X O F A V E R A G E W E E K L Y H O U R S O F P R O D U C T I O N OR N O N S U P E R V I S O R Y
WORKERS — 20 M A N U F A C T U R I N G I N D U S T R I E S 1
( P E R C E N T R I S I N G OVER 9 - M O N T H S P A N S )
1954. . ,
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965. . .
1966...
1967. . .
1968...
1969...
1970. . .
1971...
1972. . .
1973...
1974.. .
1975...
1976...
1977 . . .
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983. . ,
1984. . .
1985...
1986. . .
1987 . . .
1988. . .

2.5
100.0
27,5
20.0
10.0
90.0
22.5
42.5
85.0
57.5
72.5
87.5
85.0
10.0
65.0
45.0
5.0
65.0
85.0
57.5
20.0
0.0
82.5
82 .5
70.0
12.5
15.0
95.0
7.5
90.0
82.5
42.5
80.0
67.5
42.5

52.5
100.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
95.0
30.0
87.5
82 .5
35.0
65.0
77.5
85 .0
12.5
70.0
22.5
10.0
87.5
90.0
37.5
10.0
15.0
65.0
90.0
70.0
15.0
0.0
85.0
42.5
90.0
47.5
42,5
50.0
72.5
65.0

35.0
85.0
0.0
17.5
42.5
90.0
27.5
75.0
67.5
95.0
72.5
85.0
55.0
12.5
65.0
22.5
17.5
80.0
90.0
45.0
10.0
22.5
77.5
80,0
65.0
22.5
0.0
75.0
25.0
92.5
47.5
52.5
35.0
85.0
32.5

40.0
85.0
5.0
22.5
67.5
95.0
22.5
95.0
30.0
70.0
90.0
77.5
52.5
25.0
40.0
40.0
12.5
77.5
92.5
35 .0
2.5
60.0
62.5
82.5
57.5
20.0
7.5
50.0
27.5
87.5
30,0
60.0
67 .5
77.5
20.0

42.5
85.0
12.5
12.5
92.5
72.5
10.0
90.0
70.0
82.5
50.0
27.5
42.5
35,0
77.5
42.5
15.0
45.0
80.0
77 .5
2.5
67.5
25.0
82.5
70.0
37.5
2,5
12.5
25.0
97.5
52,5
62.5
42.5
42.5
42.5

( P E R C I NT R I S I N G

57.5
90.0
15.0
5.0
90.0
42.5
10.0
97.5
50.0
80.0
87.5
52.5
32.5
27.5
87.5
25.0
10.0
65,0
77.5
67 .5
15.0
65.0
15.0
90,0
95.0
20.0
20.0
7,5
90.0
100.0
25.0
67.5
50.0
77.5
57.5

72.5
90.0
12.5
0.0
100.0
42.5
10.0
95.0
47.5
67,5
72.5
62.5
10.0
72.5
32.5
62.5
15.0
75.0
75.0
42,5
0.0
90.0
32.5
40.0
82.5
40.0
32.5
15.0
35.0
100.0
15.0
87 .5
70.0
57.5
*

80.0
80.0
27.5
0.0
95.0
45.0
7.5
87.5
25.0
60.0
95.0
70.0
15.0
65.0
55.0
20.0
15.0
77.5
50.0
27.5
5.0
95.0
42.5
72.5
50.0
25.0
75.0
10.0
62.5
100.0
32.5
90,0
55.0
67.5

92.5
85.0
15.0
5.0
92.5
35.0
35.0
67,5
27.5
50.0
82.5
90.0
15.0
32.5
85.0
22 .5
42.5
77.5
27.5
20.0
35.0
100.0
45 .0
12.5
22.5
77.5
77 .5
5.0
77.5
85.0
5.0
95.0
75.0
87.5

2.5
2,5
2.5
0.0
7.5
12,5
10.0
92.5
17.5
62,5
85 .0
97.5
7.5
72.5
22.5
7.5
32.5
77.5
70.0
27.5
0.0
100,0
60.0
25.0
57 .5
40.0
97.5
7.5
60.0
90.0
7.5
65.0
87.5
37.5

ill Q

IV Q

Annual

AVERAGE FOR P E R I O D

95.0
30.0
57.5
10.0
97 ,5
20,0
15.0
77.5
40.0
55.0
92.5
95.0
12.5
62.5
40.0
15,0
52.5
92.5
67.5
32.5
5.0
95 .0
57.5
60.0
55.0
15.0
92.5
0.0
77.5
70.0
22.5
80.0
82.5
50.0

* ,

30.0
95.0
14.2
17.5
22.5
91.7
26.7
68.3
78.3
62.5
70.0
83.3
75.0
11.7
66.7
30.0
10.8
77.5
88.3
46.7

46.7
86.7
10.8
13.3
83.3
70.0
14.2
94.2
50,0
77.5
75.8
52.5
42.5
29.2
68.3
35,8
12.5
62.5
83.3
60.0

81.7
85,0
18.3
1.7
95.8
40.8
17,5
83.3
33.3
59.2
83.3
74.2
13.3
56.7
57,5
35.0
24.2
76.7
50.8
30.0

92.5
42.5
46.7
9.2
96.7
16.7
16.7
88.3
26.7
65.8
78.3
92,5
10.0
54.2
35.8
9.2
43.3
88.3
70.0
22.5

12.5
75.0
84.2
68.3
16.7
5.0
85.0
25.0
90.8
59 .2
45.8
55.0
75.0
46.7

90.0
55.0
30.0
7.5
95.0
17.5
25.0
95.0
22.5
80.0
57,5
85,0
10.0
27.5
45.0
5.0
45.0
95.0
72.5
7.5
2.5
72.5
50,0
100.0
5.0
20,0
95.0
5.0
95-.0
90,0
15.0
75.0
52.5
60.0
60.0

64.2
34,2
85.0
74.2
25.8
10.0
23.3
47.5
95.0
35.8
63.3
53,3
65.8
40.0

95.0
40.0
41.7
51.7
47.5
61.7
10.0
58,3
95.0
17.5
90.8
66.7
70.8
47.5

89.2
55,8
61.7
39.2
25.0
95.0
4.2
77,5
83.3
15.0
73.3
74.2
49.2
46.7

62.7
77.3
22.5
10.4
74.6
54.8
18.8
83,5
47.1
66,2
76.9
75.6
35.2
37.9
57.1
27.5
22.7
76.2
73.1
39.8
9.0
65.2
51.2
68.1
58.3
28.8
42.9
30.6
52.1
91.0
31.9
68.3
62.3
65.2
45.2

AVERAGE FOR P E R I O D

OVER 1 - M O N T H S P A N S )

196 1 ...
1962 . . .

HQ

...

...

...

...

,. .

!!!

1966 . . .
1968. . .
1969..

...

1974. . .

1977 . . .
1978...
1979...
1980. . .
1981 . . .
1982...
1983. . .
1984. ..
1985 . . .
1986...
1987. . .
1988...

63.5
62.5
63.9
54.6
58.5
37.2
55 .0
67 .8
58,5
55.4
55.6
60.7

60.5
64.3
61.0
53.4
52.7
47.3
47.9
70.6
52.3
53.7
59 .3
63.5

70.3
70.2
64.8
49.7
54.0
40.1
60.2
65.2
60.2
53.2
61.0
63.0

67 .9
70. 1
52.7
37.4
64.5
41.5
65.6
67 .8
53.2
56.3
61.9
62.8

68.6
64.6
61.6
40.8
57 .0
49.3
66.3
63.3
58,5

63.8
67 ,6
61.3
38.0
53.3
38.1
66,5
67 ,2
51.4

64.5
61,6
55.7
42.3
57.7
42,8
67.2
59.6
57.6

61.3
62.2
53.2
9.0
1.3
9.1
8.9
1.9

65.9
62.0
50.7
55.7
45.8
44.7
70.1
57.2
53.6

61.3
64.3
.3
.8
.3
.2
.6
62. 9
56.3

67.0
70.9
54.2
59.3
40.3
40.1
67.6
59.3

58.6
61.3

59.7
67.2

65.3
63.6

60.6
58.0

63.0
55.4

67.8

64.5

64.8
65.7
63.2
52,6
55.1
41.5
54.4
67.9
57.0
54.1
58.6

67.9
66.6
53.9
58.6
36.0
43.6
64.6
57.7
60.7
,

66.8
67.4
58.5
38.7
58.3
43,0
66.
66.
54.
54.
60.
*

63.9
61.9
53.2
52.3
51.6
42.2
68.7
59.6
57.3
56.3
63.0
59.0

65.4
67.3
56.5
60.6
39.5
40.0
66.3
60.0
57.5
58.1
64.3
65.6

5.2
5.6
7.9
1.0
1.1
1.7
63.9
63.4
56.6
55,6
61.5
62.7

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

(PERC!,NT R I S I N G OVER 6 -MONTH SPANS

1973. . .

1977 . . .
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982 . . .
1983...
1984...
1985...
1986...
1987...
1988...

79.1
77.8
74.6
48.6
66.5
28.5
55.2
78.7
58.7
55.6
67.3
69.9

81.8
81.4
73.9
44.7
65.2
29.7
62.2
78.9
59.7
56.6
65.8
70.2

78.7
81.2
71.2
41.1
62.9
33.0
67.3
80.2
58.2
52.7
64.8
71.5

78.4
79.8
66.8
37.4
64.9
38.8
71.1
77.1
57.6
52.9
66.8
73.9

78.1
78.7
63.2
37.1
61.3
37.2
76,4
74.4
58.6
53.4
67.6
73.9

79.7
76.2
57.9
37.5
58.0
36.8
78.2
72.6
57.6
56.0
69.5
69.1

76.2
73.6
62.9
44.4
50.3
34.5
79,4
70.1
57.6
55.6
71.3
70.2

NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain revisions beginning with
1
This series contains revisions beginning with 1982.

100



76.2
76.9
59.5
51.9
43.0
33.8
79.5
68.6
56.2
57.0
73.5
74.6

77 .5
75.6
57.7
61.2
39.0
34.8
78.2
64.9
59.5
62.3
73.2
73.5

76.6
76.8
58,6
70.9
32.2
38.1
77.4
63.9
59.7
61.6
71.5
73.9

78.1
76.1
60.9
68.9
32.5
39.1
78.1
61.6
58.3
62.9
71.8
74.5

78.4
77.8
57.7
66.2
28.7
43.1
77.5
62.6
55.6
63.2
72.2
75.8

79.9
80.1
73.2
44.8
64.9
30.4
61.6
79.3
58,9
55.0
66.0
70.5

78.7
78.2
62.6
37.3
61.4
37.6
75.2
74.7
57.9
54.1
68.0
72.3

76.
75.
60.
52.
44.
34.
79.0
67.9
57.8
58.3
72.7
72.8

77.7
76.9
59.1
68.7
31.1
40.1
77.7
62.7
57.9
62.6
71.8
74.7

78^2
77.7
63.7
50.8
50.4
35.6
73.4
71.1
58.1
57.5
69.6
72.6
(DECEMBER 1989)

for
Year

IQ

II Q

Series—Continued
III Q

IV Q

Annual
AVERAGE

1954. ....
1955
1956 .
1957
1958
1959
I960.....
1961. ....
1962.....
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
....
1968. ....
1969
1970
1971
1972
1 9 7 3 .....
1974. ....
1975 .....
1976

29.51
28.06
36.11
40,62
36,36
34.11
39 .22
37.57
40.03
40.87
49.02
55.57
66.42
72.37
76.27
82.04
90.30
90.59
98.97
113.09
130.12
144.12
150.18

29.16
29.57
37.63
41.37
33.25
35.38
40,63
37 .80
40.75
42,66
50,37
58,34
69.82
72.38
74.73
84.21
92.37
92.90
100.86
118.57
138.81
141.56
154.60

28.67
32.03
38.48
41.07
32.71
36.94
38.94
38.43
41.51
44.81
52.00
60.67
71.72
72.60
76.02
87.91
93.72
92.75
103,27
122.69
143,00
141.04
161.20

28.08
34.08
39.40
39.11
33.03
37.10
38.97
39.54
41.15
46 .34
53.67
63.52
73.63
73.63
78.63
88.80
91.27
95.41
110.50
125. 7 7
146.79
142.93
167 .76

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
.. .
1985
1986 .....
1987
1988

201.56
240.16
278.51
302.86
322 .24
290.05
340.48
376,46
382.01
377.09
413.34

214.10
250.08
282.09
311.92
316.65
294.82
349.73
389.69
378.06
380.08

220.53
259.76
284.28
323.71
305 .06
308.63
361.70
390.18
375.29
393.05

234.84
269.80
286.38
322.38
298.32
325.59
365.85
392.27
381.70
403.96
442.11

28.86
30.94
37.90
40.54
33.84
35.88
39.44
38.34
40.86
43.67
51.26
59,52
70.40
72,75
76.42
85.74
91.91
92.91
103.40
120,03
139.67
142.42
158.44
184.82
217.76
254.96
282.80
315.22
310. 8
304. 8
354. 4
387 . 3
379. 7
389.67
430.76

2 0 0 . GROSS N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
AVERAGE

1954 .....
1955 . ...
1956
1957.....
1958
1959 . .
I960. .
196 1
1962 .....
1963 .....
1964. ....
1965 .....
1966
1967 .....
1968. ....
1969
1970.
1971
1972
1973 . .
1974.
1975
1976 . .
1977
1978
1979
1980 .....
1981 .....
1982
1983
1984 ,
1985
.....
1986
1987
1988

.

367.9
394.0
419.5
447.3
443.9
485.1
516.1
517.4
564.4
592.1
636.9
682.7
754.8
799.7
862.9
941 .3
994.2
1075.2
1166 .5
1311.6
1426.2
1524.6
1730.9
1899 .1
2111.4
2420.5
2673.0
2978.8
3112 .6
3265.8
3674.9
3925.6
4181.3
4388.8
4739.8

368.1
402.3
425.1
449.4
447.9
497 .8
514.5
527 .9
572.2
600.3
645 .6
695.0
764.6
805.9
886 .7
955.6
1008.9
1094.3
1197.2
1342.9
1459.1
1563.5
1761.8
1968.9
2230.3
2474.5
2672.2
3017.7
3159.5
3367.4
3754.2
3979.0
4194.7
4475.9
4838.5

372.8
410.5
429 .9
456.5
461.0
498.0
517.7
538.5
579.2
613.1
656.0
7 10.7
777 .7
822 .9
903.6
975.4
1027.9
1113.9
1223.9
1369.4
1489.1
1627.4
1794.7
2031.6
2289.5
2546.1
2734.0
3099.6
3179.4
3443.9
3807.9
4 0 4 7 .0
4253.3
4566.6
4926.9

381.2
416.9
438.3
450.9
474,2
502.4
513.0
551.5
582,8
622.1
660.6
732.0
790.9
837 .1
917 .4
983.5
1030.9
1127.3
1263.5
1413.3
1516.8
1678.2
1843.7
2062.4
2367.6
2591.5
2848.6
3114.4
3212.5
3545.8
3851.8
4107 .9
4297,3
4665.8
5017.3

2 0 0 C , P E R C E N T C H A N G E I N GROSS N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T I N C U R R E N T
DOLLARS
( A N N U A L RATE, P E R C E N T )
1954. ....
1955
1 9 5 6 .....
1957
1958
1959
I960 .
196 1
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966. ....
1967
.. .
1968
1969. ....
1970
1971
1972
1973.....
1974
1975
1976.....
1977
1978
1979....,
1980.... .
1981.
1982
1983
1984
1985 .....
1986
1987.....
1988

-0.3
14.1
2.6
8.5
-6.1
9.5
11.4
3.5
9.7
6.5
9.9
14.1
13.1
4.5
12.9
10.8
4.4
18.3
14.7
16.1
3.7
2.1
13.2
12.6
9.8
9.2
13.2
19.6
-0.2
6.8
15.4
7.9
7.3
8.8
6.5

0.3
8.6
5.4
1.9
3.7
10.9
-1.2
8,4
5.6
5.7
5.6
7 .4
5 .3
3.1
11.5
6.2
6 .0
7.3
11,0
9.9
9.6
10.6
7.3
15.5
24.5
9.2
-0.1
5.3
6.2
13.0
8.9
5.6
1.3
8.2
8.6

5.1
8.4
4,7
6.5
12.2
0.2
2.5
8.3
5.0
8.8
6 .6
9.3
7 .0
8.7
7.8
8.5
7.7
7 .4
9.2
8.1
8,5
17.4
7 .7
13.4
11.0
12.1
9.6
11.3
2,5
9.4
5.8
7.0
5.7
8.4
7 .5

9.4
6.3
8.0
-4.8
12.0
3.6
-3.6
10.0
2.5
6 .0
2 .8
12.5
7 .0
7.1
6.3
3.4
1.2
4.9
13.6
13.5
7.7
13.1
11.4
6.2
1 .4
.3
1 .9
.9
.2
1 .4
4.7
6.2
4.2
9.0
7 .5

372.5
405.9
428.2
451.0
456 .8
495.8
515.3
533.8
574.6
606.9
649.8
705. 1
772.0
816.4
892 .7
963.9
1015.5
1102 .7
1212.8
1359.3
1472.8
1598.4
1782.8
1990.5
2249.7
2508.2
2732.0
3052.6
3166.0
3405.7
3772.2
4014.9
4231.6
4524.3
4880.6
PERCENT
CHANGE1
0.2
9.0
5.5
5.3
1.3
8.5
3.9
3.6
7.6
5.6
7.1
8,5
9.5
5.8
9.3
8.0
5 .4
8.6
10.0
12.1
8.3
8.5
11 .5
11.7
13.0
11.5
8.9
11.7
3.7
7.6
10.8
6.4
5,4
6 .9
7.9

NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain revisions beginning with 1986.
1
Year-to-year differences^and percent changes are computed from annual data.
2
This series contains revisions beginning with 1947.




Year
100.

NT AND

IQ

II Q

III Q

IV Q

E X P E N D I T U R E S I N 1982 D O L L A R S F O R N E W P L A N T A N D
EQUIPMENT
( A N N , RATE, BIL. D O L . )

AVERAGE

1954.....
1955.....
1956 .....
1957
1958.....

116.43
110.11
133.30
139.79
124.29

115.02
114,95
137 .44
140.79
112.85

112.73
122.21
137 .91
138.34
109 .80

109.64
128.21
138.31
130.82
109.80

1960
1961.....
1962
1963
1964, ....
1965
1 9 6 6 . ....
1967.....
1968.....
1969
1970.
1971
1972.....
1973. ....
1974...,.
1975.....
1976.... .
1977 .....
197 8
1979
1980.....
1981
1982
1983.,..,
1984
1985
1986.,...
1987
1988.,...

127.03
123. 14
129.01
129.85
154.28
172.34
201.40
211.07
215.08
220.16
229.19
219.02
225.34
250.69
272.55
256.03
249 .09
273.87
291.40
318.04
339. 6
335. 6
326. 5
290. 6
344. 5
380. 2
386. 2
380.62
417.63

131,46
122.66
131,56
135.80
158.63
181,31
208,20
209.87
208.43
222 .66
230.79
219,78
228.12
258.84
281 .92
245.93
250.83
277 .13
302.83
323.79
335.64
337 .84
316.95
297.34
352.93
394,98
378.71
383.55
431.35

126.21
124.69
133.59
142.58
163.24
186,92
213.33
209.15
209,53
229.63
233.80
216 .68
231.87
264.73
275.20
241 . 6 2
257.41
286 .07
305.16
329.61
330.37
342 .29
302.79
311,99
365.17
394.14
372,41
401.61
436.04

127.08
127.71
131.36
146.38
168.79
194.45
215 .42
210.46
214.34
228.76
2 2 6 .02
220.15
247.18
26 8 . 2 0
270,22
240.98
263.22
280. 17
318.29
336.82
325,56
332,55
296.07
328.62
369.49
396.88
379.37
411 .07
433.51

2 0 0 B . C H A N G E I N GROSS N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
v
'
'

1954
1955 . ...
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960.
1961. ....
1963. ....

1965
1966 .....
1967
1968
1969
1 9 7 0 . ....
197 1
1972 .....
1973.....
1974. ....
1975
1 9 7 6 . ....
1977, ....
1978
1979
1980.....
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987 .. . .
1988

-0.3
12.8
2.6
9.0
-7.0
10.9
13.7
4.4
12.9
9.3
14.8
22.1
22.8
8.8
25.8
23.9
10.7
44.3
39.2
48. 1
12.9
7.8
52.7
55.4
49.0
52.9
81.5
130.2
-1.8
53.3
129.1
73,8
73.4
91.5
74.0

0.2
8.3
5.6
2,1
4.0
12.7
-1.6
10.5
7.8
8.2
8.7
12.3
9.8
6.2
3.8
4.3
4.7
9.1
0.7
1.3
2.9
8.9
0.9
9.8
1 8.9
4.0
-0.8
38.9
46 .9
101.6
79.3
53,4
13.4
87.1
98.7

4.7
8.2
4.8
7.1
13.1
0.2
3.2
10.6
7.0
12.8
10.4
15.7
13.1
17 .0
16.9
19.8
19.0
19.6
26.7
26.5
30.0
63.9
32.9
62,7
59.2
71.6
61.8
81.9
19.9
76.5
53,7
68.0
58.6
90.7
88.4

358. IN DEX OF OUTPUT PER HOUR, ALL P E R S O N S ,
BUSINESS SECTOR2 (1977=100)
1954. ....
1955
1956
1957.....
1958
1959
1960. ....
196 1
1962
1963. ....
1964
1965
1966
.. .
1967
1968
1969 .....
1970
197 1 .
1972
1973. ...
1974
1975
1976
1977
.....
1978,,...
1979
.
1980
1981 .....
1982
1983
1984. ....
1985.
1986.
1987
1988

61.1
3. 1
3.4
4.8
5.3
8.7
69.7
70.3
73.7
75.6
79.0
80.6
83.5
84.3
87 .4
88.4
87.1
90.8
92.4
97.0
95.1
93.7
97.7
99.3
100.3
100.6
99.2
100.7
99.0
100,6
103.8
105.0
108.3
107 .7
111.0

61.2
63.6
63.9
64.9
66 .2
69.4
69.5
71.5
73.4
76.6
79.5
81.4
83.4
85.5
88.4
88.1
88.0
90,8
93.5
95.7
94.1
95.8
98.6
99.9
101.3
99.7
98.4
100.3
99.2
102.4
104.4
105.5
108.0
108.6
110.5

62.1
63.8
63.9
65.3
66 .9
68.2
69.4
72.1
74.3
77.3
80.3
82.1
83.7
86 .5
88.6
87.9
89.6
91 .5
94.0
95.5
93.4
97 . 1
98.8
101.2
101,2
99.0
99.0
100.4
99,1
102.5
104.3
106.0
107.5
109.5
111.5

Annual

8.4
6.4
8.4
-5.6
13.2
4.4
-4.7
13.0
3.6
9.0
4.6
21.3
13.2
14.2
13.8
8.1
3.0
13.4
39.6
43.9
27 .7
50.8
49.0
30.8
78.1
45.4
114.6
14.8
33.1
101.9
43.9
60.9
44.0
99.2
90.4

113.45
118.87
136.72
137.44
114.19
117.89
127.94
124.55
131.38
138.65
161.23
183.76
209.59
210.14
211.86
225 . 3 1
229,94
218.91
233.13
260,60
274.96
246 .14
255.14
279.30
304.42
327 .08
332.66
337 .11
310.58
307.04
358.01
391.58
379.40
395.42
430.74
DIFFERENCE1
0.9
33.4
22,3
22.8
5.8
39.0
19.5
18.5
40.8
32.3
42.9
55.3
6 .9
4 .4
7 .3
7 .2
5 .6
8 .2
11 .1
14 .5
11 .5
125.6
184.4
207 .7
259.2
258.5
223.8
320.6
113.4
239.7
366.5
242 .7
216.7
292.7
356 .3

NONFARM
AVERAGE

62.4
63.6
64.4
65 .5
68.1
68.8
69.5
73.1
75.1
77.6
80.3
83.2
83.8
86.9
88.6
87.9
89.0
91.1
95.6
95.4
93.3
96 .6
98.5
100.2
101.3
98.6
99.7
99.0
99.5
103.0
104.5
106.2
107 .6
110.2
112.0

61.7
63.5
63.9
65.1
66 .6
68.8
69.5
71.7
74.1
76 .7
79.8
81,8
83.6
85 .8
88.3
88.0
88.4
91 .0
93.8
95.8
93.9
95 .7
98.3
100.0
100.9
99.4
99.0
100.0
99. 1
102.0
104.2
105 .6
107 .7
108.9
111.1

(DECEMBER 1989)

101

CD Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

IQ

II Q

III Q

Annual

IV Q

345 . I N D E X O F A V E R A G E H O U R L Y C O M P E N S A T I O N , A L L E M P L O Y E E s,
N O N F A R M B U S I N E S S SECTOR
(1977=100)

1954. ,
1955 . .

1957..
1958
1959..
I960..
196 1 . ...
1962
19 3 . .
19 4. .
19 5 . .
19 6 . .. . .
197..
19 8. .
1 Q 9 . . ...
19 0
19 1..
...
192
19 3
19 4 . .
19 5 . .
19 6. .
19 7. .
19 8
1Q 9
1980 . ...
1981 . . . .
1982 . ....
1983 . . ...
1984. . ...
1 o 85
. ..
1986
. .
1987
1988 .. . . .

26.1
26 .8

26 .2
27.1

26.4
27 .5

30.2
31.4
32.8
34.4
35.5
37.0
38.2
39.8
41.2
43 . 1
45.8
49. 1
52.5
563
60. 1
64.0
689
74.5
83.1
89.8
97.3
1056
1152
126 .2
140.0
151.3
159.1
164.6
170 8
179.4
1 86 .2
194.0

30.5
31.7
33.1
34,6
35.8
37.2
38.4
40.2
41.5
43.9
46.4
50.0
53.3
572
61.1
64.9
700
76.7
84.7
91.8
99.2
107.4
1177
130.0
142.3
53.3
59.9
65.8
72 2
81.2
87 .4
96.7

30.9
32.2
33.4
34.8
36.1
37.4
38.8
40.8
42.0
44.6
47.1
50.7
54.3
584
62.1
65.8
715
78.8
86 . 1
93.8
101.0
109 .6
1201
133.1
145.4
55.9
60.7
67.6
743
83.2
89 .6
99.2

AVERAGE
26.3
27.3
290
30.7
31.9
33.3
34.7
35.9
37.3
38.6
40.4
41.8
44.2
46.7
50.4
53.9
57.7
61.4
65.3
70.7
77.7
85.3
92.6
100.0
108.6
1188
131.2
143 . 7
154.3
160.4
166.6
173.3
182.1
188.9
197.7

26 .6
27 . 8
7
31. 3
32. 5
33. 7
35. 1
36. 4
37. 9
39. 3
41. 0
42. 5
45 1
.
47. 7
51. 8
55. 4
59 0
62. 5
67. 1
72 9
80. 9
87. 9
95. 5
103. 0
12 . 1
22 9
36 .4
47. 7
57. 6
62. 5
69. 0
76 7
85 5
.
92 9
.
0
02 .

345C. C H A N G E IN I N D E X OF AVERAGE HOURLY C O M P E N S A T I O N OVE R
AVERAGE
19 4
19 5
19 6 „ . . . .
19 7 . .. . .
19 8
19 9
19 0. . ...
19 1
19 2. . ...
19 3 . .
19 4 . . . . .
...
19 5
19 6 . ....
19 7
198..
...
...
19 0
19 1
19 2 . .
19 3 . ....
19 4
1975 ..
1 9 7 6 . ...
1977
...
1978
1979. .
1980. .
1981 .'.
1982 . .

1984. .
1985
1986..
19 87 . . ...
1988

2 8
4 2
6.5
5.6
40
3 8
4.4
3 5
3.9
3.5
5.2
2.9
6.3
5 5
7.8
7.0
7.5
6 4
6.0
8.7
10.3
9.3
8.8
7.8
8.4
9.6
10.9
.2
.2
1
.3
0
.2
.5
5 1

3 0
4 4
7.0
5.2
38
3 8
4.1
3 7
4.1
3.7
4.5
3.6
6.3
5 7
8.5
6.9
6.5
5 9
7.4
8.7
11.0
8.6
8.7
7.8
8.9
9.6
10.9
8.3
6.7
3 1
4.0
4 5
S.'O
3.9
4.8

3 0
5 4
6.7
4.1
44
4 7
3.1
4.3
3.3
4.1
3.4
4.8
6.1
7 3
6.8
7.2
6.9
6.4
7.7
8.2
11.5
8.0
8.4
8.5
9.1
9.6
10.9
8.1
5.2
3 4
3.8
5 0
3.8
4.2
5.5

3 .6
6 .2
5. 9
4. 0
4 .4
4 5
3. 5
3 .9
3. 0
4. 7
3. 3
5. 9
5. 7
7 6
6. 7
7. 2
6. 8
6. 2
8. 0
9. 5
10. 4
8. 3
8. 1
8. 2
9, 6
10. 4
9. 5
7. 7
4. 3
3 7
3. 8
5 2
3. 5
4. 9
5.4

346C. CHANGE IN I N D E X OF REAL AVERAGE HOURLY COMPENSATIO N
1954..
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959
1 9 6 0 . . ...
1961..
1962..
1963 .. ...
1 9 6 4 . . ...
1965 .. . . .
1 9 6 6 . . . ..
1 9 6 7 .. ...
1968
1969
1 9 7 0 . ...
1971. . . .
...
1972
1973. .
1 9 7 4 . . ...
1975 . ...
1976
1 9 7 7 .. ...
1 9 7 8 . . ...
1 9 7 9 .. ...
1980..
1981..
1982..
1983..
1984..
1985..
1986..
1987..
1988..

2.5
2.9
7.5
3.1
-2.5
3 9
8.0
3.3
5.3
2.7
4.0
0.2
2.5
4.8
81
0 6
0.0
4.4
65
4.7
-2.7
2.4
4 2
0.2
3.2
0.8
-4.9
-0.5
6.3
3.6
-0.6
0.8
4.3
-3.7
-1.2

NOTE

2.3
4.9
4.7
0.9
1.1
2 9
0.5
4.5
1.0
0.5
2.8
0.7
3.7
3.2
3.0
0 0
0.8
2.5
3.0
-1.8
0.7
2.6
5 2
0.7
-2.3
-3.9
-1.5
-1.6
-0.4
-2.6
-0.7
-1.1
5.8
-2.1
1.0

4.3
5.0
2.2
1.4
5.5
0 8
2.0
0.8
1.1
1.7
5.3
3.4
2.6
1.4
0.7
1.7
4.2
2.7
2.5
0.5 '
0.0
-1.1
2 4
1.9
-1,1
-4.6
2.3
-2.3
-0.2
-1.9
0.7
2.6
2.3
1.0
0.4

4.9
3. 3
2. 7
2. 9
3. 6
1 5
0. 5
3. 2
3. 6
4. 3
0. 6
2. 8
1. 6
1. 1
3. 3
1.8
-1. 5
-0. 5
3.6
-2. 2
-1. 7
0. 7
6
1.
1. 8
0. 1
-3. 0
-1. 5
-0. 4
3. 2
0. 6
0. 0
1. 5
2. 2
3. 3
1. 4

.

3.1
5.0
6.5
4.7
4.2
4.2
3.8
3.8
3.6
4.0
4.1
4.3
6.1
6.5
7.4
7.1
6.9
6.2
7.3
8.8
10.8
8.6
8.5
8.1
9.0
9.8
10.6
8.3
5.8
3 3
4.0
4.7
4.4
4.1
5.2

PERCENT
CHANGE
2.6
4.1
4.7
2.5
1.1
3.4
2.7
2.3
3.0
2.1
3.3
1.7
2.9
2.6
3.5
1.3
1.3
2.0
3.1
1.9
-1.1
0.7
2.6
1.4
0.9
• -1.7
-2.7
-0.8
1.2
0.7
-0.4
0.5
3.1
0.1
0.5

Year
1954
1955
1 9 5 6 . .
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961.. ..
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966 . .
1967
1968
1969....
197 0.
1971
1972
1973. ...
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988




II Q

III Q

IV Q

Annual

3.4
3.4
75
6.6
2.2
4.6
8.4
4.2
6.9
4.0
5.7
1.4
6.4
5.9
12.5
5.6
6.5
8.0
10.0
11.5
9.4
1.4
.0
.7
1 5
1 3
1 .1
1 .0
1.1
.9
2
3
.2
5
.4

1.6
4.3
75
4.4
3.9
3.6
3.0
4.4
2.6
1.3
3.5
3.3
7.5
5.8
7.0
65
66
6.3
5,7
6 6
12.0
7.7
9.0
8.0
6.8
9 0
12.5
6,8
5.5
2.0
3.1
32
4.0
26
5,6

3.2
5.3
6.5
5.1
5.2
2.9
2.2
2 4
2.2
4.2
6.2
4.7
6.2
5.5
6.3
7.4
8.6
6.8
5.9
8.6
11.8
7.1
9.1
7.7
8.4
8 3
10.2
9.1
6.9
.0
.3
9
.7
.7
5.2

PERCENT
CHANGE2

3.6
4.5
63
4.9
4.0
4.0
3.2
3.8
4.6
5.4
2.5
5.0
5.0
5.6
8.5
8.2
4.3
2.5
8.0
8.1
10.9
8.3
7.7
8.0
9.8
9 9
10.0
6.3
4.5
4.7
3.5
57
5.1
7.0
5.9

3.3
3.8
6.3
5.9
4.0
4.1
4.4
3.4
4.1
3.4
4.6
3.4
5 8
5.7
7.9
6.8
71
6.5
6.4
8.3
9.8
9.9
8.5
8.0
8.6
9 5
10.4
9.5
7.4
3.9
39
40
5.1
3.7
4.7

3 4 6 . I N D E X O F REAL A V E R A G E H O U R L Y C O M P E N S A T I O N , A L L
EMPLOYEES, NONFARM B U S I N E S S S TOR
( 1 9 7 7 100)
1954
1955 . . .
1956
1957
1958 .. .
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966.....
1967
.
1968
1969.o...
1970
1971
1972.....
1973
1974
1975
1976 . . .
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983.. ..
1984
1985
1986
1987..,..
1988

58 6
60 7
63.8
65.9
66.3
8.6
0.9
2.0
4.5
6.0
8.0
9.7
81.6
84 2
87.1
88.7
89.5
91.3
93.8
97 0
95 5
95.8
97 4
99.6
101 5
100.9
96.8
96.5
96.9
98 4
97.3
97 5
99.3
100.8
101 0

58 9
61.4
64.6
66.0
66 5
69.1
71.0
72.8
74.7
76,1
78.6
79.9
82 3
84 9
87.7
88.7
89 7
91.8
94.5
96 6
95 7
96.5
98 6
99.8
100 9
99.9
96.4
96.1
96.8
97 7
97.1
97 2
100.7
100.3
101 3

59 6
62.2
64.9
66.3
67.4
69.3
71.3
73.0
74.9
76.4
79.6
80.5
82.9
85 2
87.9
89.1
90.6
92 4
95,1
96.7
9 ^ 7
96.2
99.2
100.3
100 6
98.7
96.9
95.5
96.7
97.3
97.3
97.8
101.2
100.5
101 4

AVERAGE

60 3
62.7
65.4
66.7
68.0
69.5
71.4
73.5
75.5
77.2
79.7
81.1
83.2
85 4
88.6
89.5
90.3
92 3
95.9
96.2
95 3
96.4
99.6
100.7
100 7
98.0
96.6
95.4
97.5
97.4
97.3
98 2
101.8
101.3
101 7

59 3
61 7
64.6
66.2
67 0
69.2
71.1
72.7
74.9
76.5
79.0
80 4
82 7
84 8
87.8
88.9
90 1
91 9
94.7
96 6
95 5
96.1
98 6
100.0
100 9
99.2
96.5
95.8
96.9
97.6
97.2
97.6
100.7
100.8
101 3

346C. C H A N G E I N I N D E X O F REAL A V E R A G E H O U R L Y C O M P E N S A T I O N
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964....,
1965.....
1966
1967
1968. ...
1969
1970.....
1971.....
1972
1973
1974.....
1975....
1976
1977
1978
1979
. 1980
1981
1982.....
1983
1984.....
1985
1986.....
1987
1988

U n l e s s o t h e r w i s e n o t e d , these series c o n t a i n r e v i s i o n s beg n n i n g w i t h 1947.
Uhi > s e r i e s c o n t a i n s r e v i s i o n s b e a i n n i n a w i t h 1948.
^Year-to-year changes are computed from annual data.
3
Changes are centered on the 3d quarter of the span. Annual figures are averages of the centered changes.

102

1 Q

345C. C H A N G E I N I N D E X O F A V E R A G E HOURLY C O M P E N S A T I O N OVER
1-QUARTER S P A N S 1 ( A N N U A L R A T E , P E R C E N T )

2.8
4.4
4.4
2.1
1.7
2 8
3.0
2.3
2.6
2.1
4.1
1.2
2.9
2.8
3.2
14
1.7
2.0
2 8
1.7
-1.0
0.5
31
l.l
04
-1.9
-1.8
-1.5
1.3
0.5
0.0
0.6
3.5
-0.7
0.9

3.5
4.0
4.3
2.1
1.9
2 3
2.7
2.9
2.7
2.3
3.2
1.8
2.6
2 6
3 7
10
09
2.3
3 9
0.3
-0.9
1 1
33
1.2
00
-2.7
-1.4
-1.2
2.2
-0.1
-0.1
1.0
3.6
-0.4
0.4

3.6
5.2
3.2
0,7
3.5
3 3
1.6
3.4
2.1
2.6
2.2
2.4
3.2
3.4
19
09
20
2,8
3 5
-1.6
0.4
1.6
23
1.9
-06
-4.1
-0.3
0.5
1.5
-1.1
0.2
1.8
1.6
0.2
0.6

4.2
5.1
2.3
0.7
4.0
2 7
2.6
2.5
2.0
3.2
1.7
3 1
3.1
3 4
11
11
24
2.9
2 2
-0.9
0.8
2 2
12
1.1
10
-3.5
-0.3
0.8
"l.O
-0.7
0.1
3.5
-0.4
1.0
0.2

.

3.5
4.7
3.6
1.4
2.8
2 8
2.5
2.8
2.4
2.6
2.8
2 1
3.0
3 0
25
11
18
2,5
3 1
-0.1
-0.2
14
25
1.3
03
-3.0
-0.9
-0.3
1.5
-0.3
0.0
1.7
2.1
0.0
0.5

(DECEMBER 1989)

C.

for
Year
370.

I Q

II Q

III Q

INDEX OF OUTPUT PER HOUR, ALL P E R S O N S ,
SECTOR1
(1977=100)

1954.
1955.....
1956 .....
1957
1958.,...
1959
I960. .. .

1962
1963.
1964. .. .
1965
1966. ....
1967
1968
1969
1970
197 1 .....
1972. ....
1973.....
1974. ....
1975
1976 .....
1977 .....
1978
1979
1980 .....
1981 .....
1982. ....
1983. ....
1984. ....
1985
1986
1987
.....
1988

56.0
58.5
59.2
60.9
61.8
65.0
66 .7
66 .7
70.0
72.6
76.5
78.3
81,4
82.4
85.7
86.3
86 .4
90.3
91.4
96.3
94.1
93.5
97.9
99.4
100.3
100.8
99.7
101.3
100.0
101.6
104.8
106.3
110.3
110.0
113.2

56.5
58.9
59.2
61.1
62.3
65.2
66.1
68.5
70.4
73.5
76.6
78.7
81.4
84.0
86.6
86.7
87.0
90.0
92.9
95.2
93.8
95.5
98.2
99.6
101.4
100.2
99.0
101.2
100.3
103.1
105.4
107.1
110,1
110,7
112.6

57 .4
58.8
59.4
61.1
63.3
64.6
5.7
8.8
1.4
4.4
7.5
9.8
81.8
84.7
87.0
86.9
88.8
91,0
93.3
94.7
93.2
96.6
98.5
101.3
101.2
99.5
99,5
101.6
100.2
102,6
105.3
108.0
109.6
111.7
113.4

IV Q
58.0
58.7
60.4
61.5
64.4
65.4
66.0
70.0
72.1
74.8
77.8
80.7
82.0
85,2
86.9
87.1
88.5
90.6
95.3
95.3
93.0
96.6
98.6
100.5
101,4
99.0
100.1
100.1
100.9
103.5
105.7
108.3
109.8
112,5
113.5

1.7
2.4
1.0
2.9
3.5
2,1
1.8
4.7
3.7
4.2
4.1
3.0
2 .4
3.6
2.7
-0.2
2 ,2
2.5
2.6
1.5
-1.6
3.7
2.0
2.8
-0 1
-1.6
0.0
2. 1
-1.4
2.4
2.6
2.5
1.5
1.9
1.5

57,1
47 ,6
85,7
57.1
38.1
85.7
81,0
52,4
57,1
57,1
57 ,1
52,4
52.4
47,6
66.7
90.5
57.1
38.1
76.2
81.0
76 .2
19.0
66.7
66 .7
81,0
50,0
66.7
57.1
47.6
47,6
88,1
61,9
52.4
54.8
95.2

4.4
1.1
2.8
1.5
5.2
2.7
-0.1
5.0
3.7
5.4
2,4
3.9
1.2
4.0
0.7
0.1
4.5
1.2
5.4
-23
-06
4.7
1.6
0.8
0 5

4.3
0.5
3.1
2.0
4.6
1.4
3.7
2.7
4.5
4.2
2.7
3.4
3.2
3.1
0.2
0.3
3.4
3.3
2.5
15
19
2.8
1.4
1.8
- 1 2

3.2
1.3
2.4
2.0
4.5
1,9
1.6
4.6
3,8
4.4
3.3
3.5
2.1
3.7
1.4
0.1
2.9
2.3
3.9
-06
-07
3,8
1.8
1.8
0 0

1.1
0.1
0.7
2,6
2.1
2.5
1.4
2.4
0.9

1.7
-1.3
1.6
3,1
1.4
3.7
-0.3
2.9
0.5

2.2
-0.9
2.8
2.2
1.7
2.7
0.6
1.7
1.5

1.2
0.0
0,9
2.6
2.0
2.8
0.8
2.2
1.1

42.9
85.7
90.5
76.2
19.0
85.7
66,7
76 .2
81.0
66.7
66.7
81.0
66.7
42.9
57,1
90,5
52.4
76.2
78.6
85 . 7
85.7
23.8
76.2
71.4
76.2
52,4
38,1
47.6
38.1
61,9
61.9
76.2
64.3
90,5
76.2

38.1
81 .0
76.2
47.6
66.7
90.5
42.9
59.5
61.9
71.4
42.9
47.6
57.1
47.6
57.1
66.7
52.4
61,9
81.0
73.8
59.5
47.6
69.0
71.4
76.2
81.0
33,3
52.4
33.3
90.5
71.4
69.0
38.1
85.7
66.7

54.8
81.0
61.9
38.1
64.3
61.9
52,4
76 ,2
50.0
59.5
66.7
76.2
54.8
52.4
71.4
38,1
45.2
71.4
90.5
76.2
47,6
59.5
66.7
71.4
76,2
54.8
38.1
52.4
5 2 . 4 85.7
71.4
42.9
81.0
81.0
42.9

1954
1955 .....
1956 .
1957
1958
1959...
1960
1961,...
1962.
1 9 6 3 .
1964..
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971...,,
1972
.
1973.....
1974
1975
1976
1977.....
1 9 7 8 . .
1979
1980
1981 .....
1982.,...
1983.,.
1984
1985
.
1986
1987.....
1988
.

iivcR^ur,

48.2
73.8
78.6
54.8
47.0
81.0
60,8
66 , 1
62.5
63.7
58.4
64,3
57 .8
47.6
63.1
71.4
51,8
61.9
81.6
79.2
67.2
37.5
69.6
70.2
77.4
59.6
44.0
52.4
42,8
71.4
73.2
62.5
59.0
78.0
70.2

II Q

-4.8
3.4
2.9
27
16
35
8.6
42
0.1
25
92
2.9
36
22
22
-28
-3.3
8.3
36
4.5
-4.9
2.1
5.4
3.3
-07
-21
2.8
5.2
-04
32
5 2
2 5
73
05
2 5

3.5
3.1
0.5
14
36
10
-3.9
11.2
1.9
53
06
1.8
-01
79
43
20
3.1
-1.3
69
-4.6
-1.5
8.8
1.4
0.5
4.4
-26
-2,6
-0.7
09
59
2 1
3 1
-08
26
-21

9 7 0 A . D I F F U S I O N I N D E X OF E X P E N D .
EQUIP. —ACTUAL
(PERCENT RISING

AVERAGE

2.3
1.3
2.9
1.8
4.7
1.4
1.0
6.1
3.1
3.7
4.0
3.7
1.6
4.0
2.0
0.2
1.6
2.3
5.2
00
-24
3.9
2.1
1.9
09

970B. DIFFUSION I N D E X OF EXPEND. FOR NEW PLANT AND
EQUIP.
LA
i^ o r a w a /
°
1954. ....
1955 .....
1956
1957 . ...
1958
1 9 5 9 .....
I960....,
1961.....
1962.....
1963 . . .
1964. ....
1965 .....
1966 .....
1967 .
1968
1969 .
1 9 7 0 . ....
197 i
1972. , , , .
1973
1974. ....
1975
1976.....
1977
1978....,
1979.....
1980
1981.....
1982. ....
1983
1984...,,
1985..,,.
1986.,.. .
1987, ....
1988.....

57.0
58.7
59.5
61.1
62.9
65.0
66.1
68.4
70.9
73.8
77.0
79.4
81.-6
84.1
86.6
86.8
87.6
90.4
93.1
95.2
93.4
95.4
98.2
100.0
100.9
99.7
99.4
101.0
00.2
02.6
05.2
07.3
09.8
111.1
113.0

1 Q

III Q

IV Q

3 7 0 C . C H A N G E I N O U T P U T P E R H O U R O V E R 1-Q U A R T E R S P A N S 1
( A N N U A L RATE, P E R C E N T )

AVERAGE

3 7 0 C , C H A N G E IN OUTPUT PER HOUR OVER 4 - Q U A R T E R S P A N S 3
( A N N U A L RATE, PERCENT)
954
.
955.....
956
957 .....
958
959 .....
9 6 0 . ....
96 1
962
963,... .
964
965. ....
966
967
9 6 8 . ....
969
97 0. ...
971
972
973
974
975 .....
976.....
977 .....
978
9 7 9 . ....
9 80
981 .....
982
983.. . . .
984 . .
985
986 .....
9 87
1988

Year

Annual

BUSINESS

1954. ....
1955
1956
1957
1958,
1959.....
I960.....
1961
1962
1963.....
1964.....
1965.
1966 .....
1967
196 8 . . . . .
1969
1970
1971. ....
1972
1973
1 9 7 4 . ....
1975
1976 .....
1977
1978.....
1979
1980
1981
1982 .....
1983
1984
1985 ....
1986 ....
1987
1988. ....

Q

40.5
548
905
524
143
81.0
78.6
19.0
52.4
33.3
95.2
61.9
88.1
52.4
61.9
714
57.1
35.7
714
85. 7
66.7
35.7
71.4
66.7
81.0
762
76 .2
76.2
42.9
38.1
97 .6
762
21.4
40.5
88.1

33.3
762
905
54.8
48
78.6
71.4
54.8
71.4
83.3
69.0
85.7
90.5
40.5
38.1
905
42.9
52.4
690
81.0
78.6
28.6
76.2
83.3
95.2
762
54.8
64.3
23.8
47 .6
73.8
786
59.5
69.0
85 .7

6. 5
-0 9
1.
0
0 2
6 3
-3 4
-2. 0
2 1
6. 0
4 9
4 6
5. 8
1 9
3 5
2 0
0 7
8. 2
4. 5
1 7
-2. 0
-2. 5
4. 6
1. 2
7. 2
-0 7
2 5
2. 1
1.
9
-0 2
-1 8
-0.3
3 1
1 6
3 .8
3 1

4.3
-0.4
.4
.8
.6
.8
.7
.9
.3
.3
.6
.4
.0
.3
4
,9
- .2
- .8
8.7
2.5
-0.6
0.1
0.5
-3.3
0.7
-2.2
2.2
-5.8
2 6
3.3
1.5
1.5
0.8
2.8
0.2

FOR NEW PLANT A N D
OVER 1- Q S P A N S )
35 . 7
88 1
71 4
52 4
31 0
85. 7
38. 1
40. 5
6 6 .7
76. 2
81. 0
83. 3
71. 4
35. 7
61. 9
64 3
6
47 .
45 . 2
66 7
76 2
66 7
38. 1
81, 0
90. 5
78. 6
76 2
57 . 1
71. 4
14. 3
85 .7
90. 5
61 9
31 0
81. 0
4
71.

45.2
90.5
54.8
23.8
57.1
71.4
33.3
73.8
42.9
66.7
81.0
85.7
71.4
61.9
69.0
54.8
28.6
61.9
90.5
66.7
71.4
54.8
71.4
57.1
92.9
71.4
61,9
35.7
28.6
95.2
59.5
45.2
71.4
71.4
64.3

970C. DIFFUSION INDEX OF EXPEND. FOR NEW PLANT AND
-Q SPANS)
•

1954
1955
1956 .....
1957
1958
1959.....
1 6 0 . ....
161
1 6 2 . . .
1 63. ....
164
165
1 66 .....
1967
1968
1969.
1 9 7 0 . ....
197 1
1972
1973
1974.
1975.....
1976
1977
1978
1979.....
1980
1981.....
1982
1983
1984.. ...
1985.....
1986
1987
1988

NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain revisions beginning with 1986.
]
This series contains revisions beginning with 1947.
Year-to-year percent changes are computed from annual data.
3
This series contains revisions beginning with 1948. Changes are centered on the 3d quarter of the span,
are averages of the centered changes.

33.3
52.4
57.1
57.1
52.4
57.1
69.0
57,1
524
47 ,6
66,7
66.7
52.4
52.4
66.7
66.7
64.3
50.0
76.2
71.4
71.4
61.9
66.7
61.9
71.4
52.4
76.2
61.9
47.6
47.6
61.9
66.7
71.4
59.5
71.4

42.9
71.4
85 .7
85.7
28.6
61.9
90.5
52.4
61.9
61.9
85 .7
71.4
81.0
52.4
52.4
66.7
76,2
73.8
52.4
71.4
76.2
38.1
61.9
66.7
76.2
57,1
66.7
76.2
61.9
50.0
69.0
76.2
57.1
85.7
66.7

38. 1
81. 0
81 0.
47. 6
31 . 0
66. 7
42.9
52.4
61 9
61. 9
47 6
.
1
57 .
810.
71. 4
61. 9
61. 9
6 6 .7
66. 7
33. 3
61. 9
81. 0
57. 1
69. 0
57. 1
81. 0
66. 7
81. 0
85. 7
66. 7
85. 7
92. 9
71. 4
47 . 6
61. 9
54. 8

47.6
81.0
61.9
52.4
66.7
61.9
61.9
54.8
59.5
66.7
76.2
71.4
57.1
47.6
52.4
52.4
66.7
33.3
38.1
61.9
61.9
52.4
66.7
76.2
76.2
7 1.4
66.7
71.4
66.7
76.2
38.1
33.3
47.6
52.4
52.4

Annual
PERCENT
CHANGE2
1.5
3.1
1.4
2.7
2.9
3.3
1.7
3.5
3,6
4.0
4.4
3.0
2.9
3.0
3 0
0,3
0.9
3.2
3.0
2.3
-1.9
2.1
3.0
1.8
0.9
-1.1
-0.3
1.5
-0.7
2.4
2.6
2.0
2.3
1.2
1.7

AVERAGE

38.7
77.4
76.8
45.8
26.8
79.2
55.4
47.0
58.4
64.9
81.6
79.2
80.4
47 ,6
57,7
70.2
44.0
48,8
74.4
77.4
70.8
39.3
75.0
74.4
86.9
75.0
62.5
61.9
27.4
66.6
80,4
65.5
45.8
65.5
77.4
AVERAGE

40.5
71.4
71.4
60.7
44.7
61.9
66.1
54.2
58.9
59.5
69.0
,66.6
67,9
56.0
58.4
61.9
68.5
56.0
50.0
66.6
72,6
52.4
66.1
65.5
76.2
61.9
72.6
73.8
60.7
64.9
65.5
61.9
55.9
64,9
61.3
(DECEMBER 1989)

2




Annual figures

103

F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Cyclical Indicators
Specific peak dates corresponding to contractions beginning in—

Series
July 1981
LEADING INDICATORS
1 Average weekly hours, mfg
5 Average weekly initial claims (inverted)
8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods
32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries
;
20. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, 1982 dollars
29 Building permits new private housing units
92. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders in 1982 dollars,
durable goods (smoothed1)
99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed1)
19 Index of stock prices 500 common stocks
106 Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars
.
. . .
83. Index of consumer expectations
910 Composite index of 11 leading indicators
940 Ratio coincident index to lagging index
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41 Employees on nonagriculturai payrolls
51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars
47. Index of industrial production
57 Mfg and trade sales in 1982 dollars
920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident indicators
LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted)
77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars
62. Change in index of labor cost per unit of output,
mfg (smoothed1)
109 Average prime rate charged by banks
,
101 Commercial and industrial loans in 1982 dollars
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income
120. Change in consumer price index for services (smoothed1)
930 Composite index of 7 lagging indicators

Jan. 1980

LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted)
'.
77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars
62. Change in index of labor cost per unit of output,
mfg. (smoothed1)
109 Average prime rate charged by banks
101. Commercial and industrial loans in 1982 dollars
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income
120. Change in consumer price index for services (smoothed1)
930. Composite index of 7 lagging indicators

Apr. I960

Aug. 1957

July 1953

(-2)
(0)
(-9)
(-3)
(-3)
(-10)

3/79 (-10)
9/78 (-16)
12/78 (-13)
4/79
(-9)
3/79 (-10)
6/78 (-19)

4/73
2/73
3/73
11/73
10/73
12/72

(-7)
(-9)
(-8)
(0)
(-1)
(-11)

10/68
1/69
11/68
8/69
4/69
2/69

(-14)
(-11)
(-13)
(-4)
(-8)
(-10)

5/59
4/59
2/59
2/59
3/59
11/58

(-11)
(-12)
(-14)
(-14)
(-13)
(-17)

11/55 (-21)
9/55 (-23)
7/55 (-25)
4/55 (-28)
11/56
(-9)
2/55 (-30)

4/53
9/52
4/53
7/52
2/53
11/52

12/80
12/80
11/80
NSC
5/81
5/81
10/80

(-7)
(-7)
(-8)

12/78 (-13)
5/79
(-8)
NSC
1/78 (-24)
11/76 (-38)
10/78 (-15)
4/78 (-21)

5/73
1/74
1/73
1/73
8/72
3/73
12/72

(-6)
( + 2)
(-10)
(-10)
(-15)
(-8)
(-11)

'5/69 (-7)
2/69 (-10)
12/68 (-12)
1/69 (-11)
2/69 (-10)
4/69
(-8)
11/68 (-13)

4/59
11/58
7/59
NSC
2/60
6/59
4/59

(-12)
(-17)
(-9)

l/.56(-19)
8/55 (-24)
7/56 (-13)
1/56 (-19)
11/56
(-9)
12/55 (-20)
5/55 (-27)

5/51 (-26)
6/53
(-1)
1/53
(-6)
NSC
2/53
(-5)
2/53
(-5)
10/52
(-9)

7/81
8/81
7/81
1/81
7/81

(0)
( + 1)
(0)
(-6)
(0)

3/80
1/80
3/80
3/79
1/80

( + 2)
(0)
( + 2)
(-10)
(0)

10/74 ( + 11)
11/73
(0)
11/73
(0)
11/73
(0)
11/73
(0)

3/70 ( + 3)
NSC
10/69
(-2)
10/69
(-2)
10/69
(-2)

4/60
6/60
1/60
1/60
1/60

(0)
( + 2)
(-3)
(-3)
(-3)

3/57
8/57
2/57
2/57
2/57

(-5)
(0)
(-6)
(-6)
(-6)

6/53
10/53
7/53
4/53
7/53

(-1)
( + 3)
(0)
(-3)
(0)

12/81 ( + 5)
-10/82 ( + 15)

7/79
6/80

(-6)
( + 5)

9/73
(-2)
3/75 ( + 16)

10/69
(-2)
11/70 ( + 11)

6/60 ( + 2)
1/61 ( + 9)

9/57
4/58

( + 1)
(+8)

9/53
12/53

( + 2)
( + 5)

( + 6)
( + 1)
( + 14)

6/80
4/80
3/80
2/80
6/80
4/80

( + 5)
( + 3)
( + 2)
( + 1)
( + 5)
( + 3)

( + 10)
( + 3)

3/58
12/57
9/57
1/58
3/57
12/57

( + 7)
( + 4)
( + 1)
(+5)
(-5)
(+4)

1/54
2/54
6/53
4/54
NA
12/53

( + 6)
( + 7)
(-1)
( + 9)

1/82
8/81
9/82
NSC
9/81
9/81

(-2)
(-2)
(-9)

( + 2)
( + 2)

3/75
9/74
9/74
4/74
10/74
12/74

( + 16)
( + 10)
( + 10)
( + 5)
( + 11)
( + 13)

1/70
2/70
8/70
NSC
4/70
3/70

( + 1)
( + 2)
( + 8)
( + 4)
( + 3)

2/61
7/60
NSC
12/60
10/59
7/60

(-2)
(-10)
(-12)

( + 8)
(-6)
( + 3)

(-3)
(-10)
(-3)
(-12)
(-5)
(-8)

( + 5)

Specific trough dates corresponding to expansions beginning in—
Nov. 1982

COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagriculturai payrolls
51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars.
47. Index of industrial production
57. Mfg. and trade sales in 1982 dollars
920 Composite index of 4 roughly coincident indicators

Dec. 1969

5/81
7/81
10/80
4/81
4/81
9/80

Series

LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average weekly hours, mfg
5 Average weekly initial claims (inverted)
8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods
32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries
\
20. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, 1982 dollars
29. Building permits, new private housing units
92. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders in 1982 dollars,
durable goods (smoothed1)
99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed1)
19 Index of stock prices 500 common stocks
106 Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars
83 Index of consumer expectations
910 Composite index of 11 leading indicators
940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index

Nov. 1973

July 1980

Mar. 1975

Nov. 1970

Feb. 1961

Apr. 1958

May 1954

9/82
9/82
10/82
3/82
8/82
10/81

(-2)
(-2)
(-1)
(-8)
(-3)
(-13)

7/80
5/80
6/80
5/80
5/80
4/80

(0)
(-2)
(-1)
(-2)
(-2)
(-3)

3/75
3/75
3/75
2/75
12/75
3/75

(0)
(0)
(0)
(-1)
( + 9)
(0)

9/70
10/70
11/70
12/70
10/70
1/70

(-2)
(-1)
(0)
( + 1)
(-1)
(-10)

12/60
(-2)
2/61
(0)
1/61
(-1)
3/60
(-11)
3/61 ( + 1)
12/60 (-2)

4/58
4/58
4/58
12/57
3/58
2/58

(0)
(0)
(0)
(-4)
(-1)
(-2)

4/54
9/54
10/53
11/53
3/54
9/53

(-1) (+4)
(-7)
(-6)
(-2)
(-8)

9/82
4/82
7/82
NSC
3/82
1/82
1/82

(-2)
(-7)
(-4)

(-1)
(0)
(-2)
(-4)
(-2)
(-2)

4/75
1/75
12/74
1/75
2/75
2/75
3/75

( + 1)
(-2)
(-3)
(-2)
(-1)
(-1)
(0)

8/70
9/70
6/70
4/70
5/70
10/70
11/70

(-3)
(-2)
(-5)
(-7)
(-6)
(-1)
(0)

5/60
(-9)
1/61
(-1)
10/60
(-4)
NSC
11/60
(-3)
4/60 (-10)
2/61
(0)

2/58
1/58
12/57
1/58
5/58
2/58
3/58

(-2)
(-3)
(-4)
(-3)
( + 1)
(-2)
(-1)

12/53
1/54
9/53
NSC
11/53
11/53
12/53

(-5)
(-4)
(-8)

(-8)
(-10)
(-10)

6/80
7/80
NSC
5/80
3/80
5/80
5/80

12/82
9/82
12/82
10/82
12/82

( + 1)
(-2)
( + 1)
(-1)
( + 1)

7/80
7/80
7/80
6/80
7/80

(0)
(0)
(0)
(-1)
(0)

4/75
2/75
3/75
3/75
3/75

( + 1)
(-1)
(0)
(0)
(0)

11/70
NSC
11/70
11/70
11/70

(0)

5/58
4/58
4/58
4/58
4/58

( + 1)
(0)
(0)
(0)
(0)

8/54 ( + 3)
4/54
(-1)
4/54
(-1)
12/53
(-5)
8/54 ( + 3)

10/58 ( + 6)
5/59 ( + 13)

5/55 ( + 12)
4/55 ( + 11)

7/83 ( + 8)
1/84 ( + 14)
8/83 ( + 9)
7/83 ( + 8)
10/83 ( + 11)
12/82 ( + 1)
1/83 ( + 2)
6/83 ( + 7)

1/81 ( + 6)
1/81 ( + 6)
7/81
8/80
3/81
NSC
10/80
10/80

( + 12)
( + 1)
(+8)
( + 3)
( + 3)

1/76 ( + 10)
11/78 (+44)
11/75
4/77
9/76
2/76
8/75
6/76

( + 8)
( + 25)
( + 18)
( + 11)
( + 5)
( + 15)

(0)
(0)
(0)

6/72 ( + 19)
2/73 ( + 27)
11/71
3/72
2/72
NSC
2/73
2/72

( + 12)
( + 16)
( + 15)
( + 27)
( + 15)

2/61
12/60
2/61
1/61
2/61

(0)
(-2)
(0)
(-1)
(0)

7/61 ( + 5)
4/62 ( + 14)
9/61
11/65
NSC
11/61
7/61
8/61

( + 7)
( + 57)
( + 9)
( + 5)
( + 6)

11/58
8/58
8/58
11/58
12/58
8/58

( + 7)
(+4)
( + 4)
( + 7)
( + 8)
(+4)

4/55
7/55
8/54
11/54
NA
2/55

(-6)
(-6)
(-5)

( + 11)
( + 14)
( + 3)
( + 6)
( + 9)

NOTE: Specific peak and trough dates mark the cyclical turning points in individual series; reference peak and trough dates mark the cyclical turning points in overall business activity. For the major
composite indexes and their components, this table lists the specific peaks and troughs corresponding to the last seven business cycles. The leads ( — ) or lags ( + ) of the specific dates in relation
to the reference dates are shown in parentheses (in months). These specific dates should not be considered absolute; individual analysts may prefer alternative turning points for some series. See
MEASURING BUSINESS CYCLES by Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell (National Bureau of Economic Research, 1946) for detailed information on the selection of specific peaks and troughs.
NA, not available. This indicates that data necessary to determine a turning point are not available.
NSC, no specific cycle. This indicates that no specific turning point corresponding to the indicated reference date is discernible.
1
This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada.

104



and

0

Year
and
month

III

Foreign currency per U . S . d o l l a r
Japan
(Yen)

West
Germany
(D. mark)

United
Kingdom
(Pound)

France
(Franc)

TT[TT!TTTTI TTT TTTTTTT I H H I
i i
s
Foreign currency per u.5. aoiiar—
\
a

"""•V V

\

1988
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1989
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

127.69
129=17
127.11
124.90
124.79
127.47
133.02
133.77
134,32
128.68
123.20
123.61

1.6537
1.6965
1.6770
1.6710
1.6935
1.7579
1.8466
1.8880
1.8668
1.8165
1.7491
1.7563

5.5808
5.7323
5.6893
5.6704
5.7348
5.9310
6.2241
6.3919
6,3515
r6,1976
r5.9747
5.9994

0.5553
0.5688
0.5456
0.5324
0.5349
0,5628
0.5865
0.5894
0.5938
0.5751
0.5529
0.5477

127.36
127.74
130.55
132.04
137.86
143.98
140.42
141.49
145.07
142.21
143.53
2
143.89

1.8356
1.8505
1.8686
1.8697
1.9461
1.9789
1.8901
1.9268
1.9502
1.8662
1.8300
2
1.7493

6.2538
6.3004
6.3321
6.3223
6.5815
6.7135
6.4105
6.5085
6.5855
6.3339
6.2225
2
5.9784

0.5638
0.5703
0.5836
0.5880
0.6132
0.6439
0.6147
0.6271
0.6363
0.6300
0.6359
2
0.6286

Foreign currency per U . S . d o l l a r

1988
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1989
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

Italy

Canada
(Dollar)

1345.12
1355.28
1372.50
1371.80
1415.83
1434.40
1367.39
1384.24
1404.18
1369.24
1343.83
2
1297.88

1.2855
1.2682
1.2492
L2353
1.2373
1.2176
1.2075
1.2237
1.2267
1.2055
1.2186
1.1962
1.1913
1.1891
1.1954
1 . 1888
1.1925
1.1986
1.1891
1.1758
1.1828
1.1749
1.1697
2
1.1621

89.29
91.09
89.73
88.95
89.74
92.58
96.53
98.29
97.91
95,10
91.91
91,88

95.12
95.77
96.99
97.24
100.81
103.09
99.12
100.44
101.87
98.92
97.99
2
95.31

\ / \^

^A, v^

III

^v

\

-^

A

V -\

^
V
>»& X k/
f^ fj

A
A/

F ranee (fra

nC

) A
/*/

/
A/

J^ """V^
/

\ •'sA/

/

A

J

/

^
Ital y (lin

1
^\J -•v sA/
sf
«*#^

/
I

*>***^J

/\

\V
/

y
A

J

.

\

a
J1 A
ptxF

VH

n

J^

A
m

\y \

v\

\

\f/

^A
/\

\
\

/

w\

yv ^\

\

H

Canada (dollar)

f^

s~ r^

jr***
a**"*^ f*?^*>*
/w^ v-~ ^^

^

/\

K

v
X*

\ *s\^ /\J r
f •% ^#'

°W\

a

l i l Ul

V
^*R^

m

A
/x f

""-Vv

w^

— N^

ixchange value of the U.S. dollar
(index: March 1973 = 100) ,
r*^

\ ^\

m
i*/***

J

Uni tedKi ngdor ri (po und)
j^&^
/
_^s
**«/V
Ar
'V

f^

^

^A

Wes tGer many (d. nnark)
W"=v

I I I i l l HI
Ratio scale

V

(March 1973=100)

1216.88 .
1249.62
1240.67
1240.99
1258.81
1305.56
1367,26
1397.93
1393.15
1353.36
1300.22
1295.61

\y

/^

Exchange v a l u e
of the U .1S .
dollar

(Lira)

Year
and
month

Jap an

III

V\ A
\ J^

j/^\
s
saa

HI Hi
\\ I I
II I I I
II III III
_ _ 77 78 71 10 fl.82.. 13 14 IS 98 87 88. .. .
This index is the weighted-average exchange value of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of the other G-1Q countries
plus Switzerland. Weights are the 1972-76 global trade of each of the 10 countries. For a description of this index, see
the August 1978 FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN (p. 700).
2
Average for December 1 through 22.
Hi

H

Hi

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




105

G* Supplemental Data and Analyses—Continued

Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes
Net contribution to index

Basic data
Series title
(and unit of measure)

LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours). . .
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs 1 (thous.). . . .
8. M f r s . ' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer
goods and materials industries (bil. d o l . ) . • •
32. Vendor performance—slower deliveries
diffusion index (percent)
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 198? dollars (bil. dol.)
. .
29. New private housing units authorized by
local building permits (index: 1967=100). . . .
92. Change in m f r s . 1 unfilled orders in 1982
dollars, durable goods, smoothed 2 ( b i l . d o l . ) . .
99. Change in sensitive materials prices,
smoothed 2 (percent)
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks 3
(index- 1941-43=10)
106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars
(bil
dol .)
. . . . . . . . . . . .
83. Index of consumer expectations 3
(index: 1st Q 1966=100) . . . .
910. Composite index of leading indicators'*
(index: 1982=100)
. . . . . .
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
(thous.)
51. Personal income less transfer payments
1982 dollars (ann. rate, bil. d o l . ) .
47. Industrial production
(index: 1977=100)
. .
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982
dollars (mil. d o l . )
920. Composite index of roughly coincident"*
indicators (index: 1982=100) . . . .

Sept.
1989

Aug.
1989

41.0

r 41 . 0

Oct.
1989

Aug.
to
Sept.
1989

Nov.
1989

Sept.
to
Oct.
1989

40.8

p40. 7

.00

Oct.
to
Nov.
1989

-.15

-.07

316

320

357

343

-.03

-.30

. 11

90.68

r87.85

r87.58

p89.54

-. 17

-.02

.12

44. 9

43.8

42.7

42.5

-.05

-.05

-.01

46.81

r46.61

r45.94

p47.80

-.01

-.03

.09

105.9

105.2

108. 1

107.0

-.02

.08

-.03

p 1 .1 2

-.15

.-.06

.06

-.66

-.03

.02

-.17

1.57

r 1 .1 1

.93

r-.45

r-.48

346.61

347.33

347.40

340.22

.01

.00

-.11

2,431.4

r2,442.6

r2,447.2

p2,453. 1

.15

.06

.08

87.2

84. 3

. 31

-.05

-.11

r!44. 5

p!44.7

. 14

-.34

. 15

80.3
144.8

88.6

r 1 4 5. 0

-.46

.14

108,887

rl09,096

r!09,189

pi 09, 3 9 9

in
. . . . .

r2,932. 1

r 2 ,9 30. 2

r2,937 . 4

p2,949. 7

-.03

.13

. . . . .

r!42.5

r!41 . 3

p!41.5

-.08

-. 16

.05

NA

r 1 4 2. 1

.07

.20

-

.29

r 4 66, 30 7

. . . . .

LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment 1
(weeks)
77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories
to sales in 1982 dollars (ratio).
.
. . .
62. Change in index of labor cost per unit of
2
output, m f g . s smoothed (ann. rate, percent). .
109. Average prime rate charged by banks
(percent)
.
101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
in 1982 dollars (mil. d o l . )
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit
outstanding to personal income (percent). . . .
120. Change in consumer price index for services,
smoothed 2 (ann. rate, percent).
930. Composite index of lagging indicators 4
(index: 1982=100) . . . . . . . . . .

r462,699

p457,690

NA

-. 19

-.27

133.9

r!33.5

• r 132. 9

pi 3 3 . 4

-.30

-.45

.38

11.3

11.4

11.8

11.7

-.05

-.21

.07

1 .50

rl .51

NA

. 13

.26

DA

P5.1

.08

.58

-.07

10.50

10.50

.00

.00

.00

r 3 9 5 , 993

p397,122

-.17

-.09

.09

pi 5. 7 2

N'A

-. 16

NA

rl.4
10.50
E-400,630

15. 1 1

r1 . 9
10.50

r 397 , 5 8 3
r 1 5. 7 7

p 1. 5 3
r5 . 4

. 00

4.8

4. 4

4.2

4.6

-.19

-. 10

.27

r ! 2 0 .i

r!19.9

r!20.3

p!20.8

-. 17

.33

.42

NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. It is
computed by dividing the standardized change for the component by the number of components and dividing that result by the index
standardization factor. See the January 1989 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 97-102) for the standardization factors.
NA 9 not available, p, preliminary, r, revised.
series is inverted in computing the composite index; i.e., a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement.
2
This series is smoothed by an autoregressive-moving-average filter developed by Statistics Canada.
3
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source: stock
prices, Standard & Poor's Corporation; consumer expectations, University of Michigan's Survey Research Center.
"•Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding
differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment factor
for the leading index is 0.1,42; for the coincident index, -0.186; for the lagging index 9 0.030.

106



G.

and

Continued

CIBCR Composite Indexes of Leading Indicators
Ratio scale
240
220
200
ISO
ISO

CIBCR long-leading index (1967 = 100)
220
230
IBB
160
140
120

ioo
CIBCR short-leading index (1967

80

-J so

48 49 50 Si 12 §3 54 55 §6 §7 58 ii 80 81 82 63 84 ii i® @7 ii 89 70 71 72 73 74 75 78 77 7S 79 SO 81 '-82 83 84 @S 9@ 87 S8 §9

CIBCR long-leading index (1967=100)

CIBCR short-leading index (1967=100)

Month

1985
January
February. . .
March ......
April
May...
June. ......
July. ......
August. ....
September. .
October
November. . .
December. . .

1986

1987

1988

171.8
174.9
173.2
175.8
179.0
181.6
182.3
184.5
186.2
183.2
185.8
187.9

188.8:
188.3
186.6
192.4
193.3
193.7
195.2
195.5
197.4
197.2
199.4
204.6

203.2
205.0
204.8
205.5
204.1
205,1
207.5
206.7
205.0
205.1
206.1
206.0

206.3
210.5
210.8
212.8
213.9
214.3
216.0
217.3
217.1
215.6
218.0
219.7

1989

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

219.5
218.5
215.3
219.5
220.3
r221.8
r222.3
223.6
r224.9
223.2
p225.8

r!71.8
r!71.4
172.0
171.6
172.9
r!73.3
173.8
175.1
r!76.0
177.1
r!75.9
r!78.5

r!79.5
r!79.6
rlSO.l
181.4
r!82.0
r!82.7
r!82.6
184.2
r!85.3
r!85.8
r!86.9
r!89.9

r!89.4
r!91.1
r!91.7
r!91.4
r!94.2
r!96.7
r!96.6
r!98.0
r!96.9
T196.4
r!94.8
r!93.8

r!93.1
r!94.3
r!94.9
r!96.0
196.0
198.8
197.7
r!98.3
198.0
198.4
r!98.9
r201.5

201.7
201.8
r202.2
203.5
r202.1
r202.5
r201.7
203.8
r204.4
r204.4
p201.8

NOTE: These indexes are compiled by Columbia University's Center for International Business Cycle Research (CIBCR).
The components of each index are listed below, and the source is indicated for each component not shown in BCD.
Long-leading index: Building permits for new private housing units (BCD 29), bond prices (Dow-Jones & Company), ratio
of price to unit labor cost in manufacturing (CIBCR), and deflated M2 money supply (BCD 106).
Short-leading index: Average weekly hours in manufacturing (BCD 1), average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance (BCD 5), layoff rate under 5 weeks (CIBCR), deflated new orders for consumer goods and materials (BCD 8), vendor performance (BCD 32), change in business population (CIBCR), deflated contracts and orders for plant and equipment
(BCD 20), inventory change (National Association of Purchasing Management), change in industrial materials prices (Journal of Commerce), stock prices (BCD 19), and change in deflated total debt (CIBCR).
Further information about these indexes and their non-BCD components may be obtained from the Center for International
Business Cycle Research, Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027.




107

INDEX—
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

Agricultural products, exports
Anticipations and intentions
Consumer expectations, index
Consumer sentiment, index
...
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Plant and equipment expenditures, constant dollars..
Plant and equipment expenditures, current dollars....
Plant and equipment expenditures, Dl
Prices, manufacturing, Dl
Prices, retail trade, Dl
Prices, wholesale trade, Dl
Profits, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Sales, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Automobiles
Imports of automobiles and parts
.....
Personal consumption expenditures

B
Balance of payments—See International transactions.
Bank loans—See Business Loans.
Bank rates—See Interest rates.
Bank reserves
Free reserves
Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve..
Bonds—See Interest rates.
Borrowing—See Credit.
Budget—See Government.
Building—See Construction.
Building permits, new private housing
....
Business equipment, industrial production
Business expenditures—See Investment, capital.
Business failures, current liabilities
Business formation, index
Business incorporations
Business loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Business saving

Canada—See International comparisons.
Capacity utilization
Manufacturing
Materials
5
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Backlog
Newly approved
Newly approved, Dl
Capital equipment, producer price index
Capital investment—See Investment, capital.
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars
Cash flow, corporate, current dollars
Civilian labor force—See also Employment.
Employment
Employment as percent of population
Labor force
Unemployed
Coincident indicators
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index
Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded,
Commercial and industrial loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstandjng, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Compensation—See also Income.
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of
national income
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm

business sector

Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm

economy

Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm
economy.
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
Composite indexes
Coincident indicators
Index
Rate of change.
Ratio to lagging indicator index.
Lagging indicators
Index
Rate of change.
Leading indicators
Capital investment commitments.
Eleven leaders, index
Eleven leaders, rate of change
Inventory investment and purchasing.
Money and financial flows.
Profitability...

See notes at end of index.

108



FINDING GUIDE
Series

Current issue
^ numbers)

number Charts

Tables

604

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

7/89

83
58
974
975
971
100
61
970
976
978
977
972
973

13
22

616
55

56
22

38
24
24
38
38
38
38

97
65
76
76
76
67
67
76
76
76
76
76
76

2/89
12/88
7/89
7/89
7/89
12/89
12/89
12/89
7/89
7/89
7/89
7/89
7/89

'23"
23
37
37
37
37
37

92
65

7/89
9/89

56
39

20
37
37
37

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Construction
Building permits, new private housing
Contracts awarded, commercial and
industrial buildings
Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales....
Gross private fixed investment
Nonresidential, constant dollars
Nonresidential, percent of GNP
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Residential, constant dollars
Residential, percent of GNP
Housing starts
Consumer expectations, index
Consumer finished goods, producer price index
Consumer goods and materials, new orders
Consumer goods, industrial production
Consumer installment credit

Credit outstanding

Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Consumer prices—See also International comparisons.
All items

Food

93
94

33
33

72
72

11/88
11/88

35
35

29
76

13,25
24

67
67

9/89
1/89

24
12

14
12
13

33
23
23

72
65
65

7/89
1/88
7/89

34
21
21

101
72
112
295

15,35
35
32
46

73
73
71
82

4/89
4/89
4/89
11/88

32
32
32
26

20
20

64
64

1/89
1/89

14
14

24
24
37
48

66
66
75

5/88
5/88
11/89
5/89

22
22
22
51

1/86
9/89

5
26
26

97
11
965
333
914
35
34

29
29

70
70

442
90
441
37

51
17
51
18,51

89
62
89
62,89

3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89

9
9
9
9

920
920c
951
940
9

10
39
36
11
23

60

'74'
60
66

10/89
10/89
10/89
10/89
5/88

5
5
21

101
72
112

15,35
35
32

73
7.3
71

4/89
4/89
4/89

32
32
32

345
280

49
45

87
82

12/89
11/88

46
46

64

30,47

70,83

9/89

46

12/89

346

49

340

.49

87

341
348
349

49
50
50

87

5

7/89
7/89

11/89
60

10/89
10/89
10/89

920
920c
940

10
39
11

930
930c

10
39

10/89
10/89

10
39
11
11
11

1/86
10/89
10/89
1/88
1/88
1/88

914
910
910c
915
917
916

"eo"

60
60
60

46

5
53
53

Services
Consumer sentiment, index
Consumption expenditures—See Personal
consumption expenditures.
Contract awards, Defense Department
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
current dollars
Corporate bond yields
Corporate profits—See Profits.
Credit
Borrowing, total private
Business loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Credit outstanding, percent change
Mortgage debt, net change
Crude and intermediate materials, change in
producer prices
Crude materials, producer price index

Debt-See Credit.
Defense and space equipment, industrial production ....
Defense Department
Gross obligations incurred
Gross unpaid obligations

Net outlays
Personnel, civilian
Personnel, military
'.
Prime contract awards
Defense products
Inventories, manufacturers'
New orders, manufacturers'
Shipments, manufacturers'
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products industries, employment
Defense purchases, goods and services
Defense purchases, percent of GNP
Deficit—See Government.
Deflators—See Price indexes.
Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans
Deliveries, vendor performance
Diffusion indexes
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Coincident indicators
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls
Industrial production
Industrial production, components
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Inventories, manufacturing and trade ,
Lagging indicators
Leading indicators
New orders, durable goods industries
New orders, durable goods industries, components..
New orders, manufacturing
Plant and equipment expenditures
Profits, manufacturing
Profits, manufacturing and trade
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Raw industrials, spot market prices, components ....
Sales, manufacturing and trade
Selling prices, manufacturing
Selling prices, retail trade
Selling prices, wholesale trade
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Workweek, manufacturing
Workweek, manufacturing, components

Current issue
Series (paje numbers)
number Charts Tables

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

29

13,25

9
69

23
24

66
67

5/88
11/89

21
17

86
248
87
89
249
28
83
334

25
47
25
25
47
25
13
48
12,21
22

67
83
67
67
83

9/89
10/88
9/89
9/89
10/88
4/89
2/89
5/89
4/89
1/89

40
40
40
40
40
24

66
113
95
39

35
32
15,35
33

73
72
73
72

8/89

320
322
120
58

49
49
15
22

84,95
84
97
65

3/89
3/89
2/89
12/88

49
49

525

53

90

6/89

55

20

12,23

66

12/89

21

10
116

23
34

66
73

12/89
5/88

21
35

9/89

64
65

'si'
15
12

33
33
33
34

110

32

101
72
112

15,35
35
32

73
73
71

4/89
4/89
4/89

32
32
32

66
113
95
39
111
33

35
32
15,35
33
32
32

73
72
73
72
72
71

8/89
8/89
8/89
2/88
8/89
9/86

33
33
33
34
31
31

98
331

28

8/89
5/89

51
50

11/89

557

54

517
543
580
578
577
525

53
53
54
55
55
53

90
90
91
91
91
90

6/89
6/89
7/89
6/89
6/89
6/89

55
55
56
56
56
55

559
548
588
561
570
564
565

54
53
54
54
55
55
55

91
90
91
91
91
91
91

9/88
9/88
9/88
9/88
6/89
11/89
11/89

17
15
17
15
5
43
43

39
33
32 12,21

72
64

2/88
2/89

34
17

965
951
974
963
966

38
36
37

11/89
10/89
7/89
12/89
10/89

22
5
37
5
12

962
975
952
950
964

'36
36
37

2/88
7/89
10/89
10/89
9/88

37
5
5
15

971
970
960
972
967

38
38
37
38
37

7/89
12/89
5/88
7/89
10/89

'37'
23
37
37
25

973
976
978
977
968
961

38
38
38
38
37
36

75
74
76
74
75
78
74
76
74
74
75
77
76
76
75
76
75
79
76
76
76
76
75
74
77

7/89
7/89
7/89
7/89
12/88
12/89

37
37
37
25
5

10/89

GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Earnings—See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Civilian labor force
Defense Department personnel, civilian
Defense Department personnel, military
Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
Rate of change
Total
Employees in goods-producing industries
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl.
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls.
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, Dl
Employment, civilian
Employment, defense products industries,
Employment, ratio to population
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers.
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Dl
Overtime hours, manufacturing
Participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age
Participation rate, females 20 years and over
Participation rate, males 20 years and over
Part-time workers for economic reasons.
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age.
Unemployed, females 20 years and over
Unemployed, full-time workers
Unemployed, males 20 years and over
Unemployment, average duration
Unemployment, civilian
Unemployment rate, civilian
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured
Workweek, manufacturing
Workweek, manufacturing, components
Workweek, manufacturing, Dl
Equipment—See Investment, capital.
Expectations—See Anticipations and intentions.
Exports—See International transactions.

Federal funds rate
Federal Government—See Government.
Federal Reserve, member bank borrowings from..
Final sales in constant dollars
Financial flows, Cl
Fixed investment—See Investment, capital.
Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic
business product
Foreign trade—See International transactions.
France—See International comparisons.
Free reserves

Goods output in constant dollars
Government budget
Federal expenditures
Federal receipts
Federal surplus or deficit
State and local expenditures.
State and local receipts.
State and local surplus or deficit
Surplus or deficit, total
Government purchases of goods and services
Federal, constant dollars
Federal, current dollars
Federal, percent of GNP.
National defense....
National defense, percent of GNP.
State and local, constant dollars
State and local, current dollars
State and local, percent of GNP
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Gross domestic business product, fixed-weighted
price index
Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit
Gross national product
GNP, constant dollars.
GNP, constant dollars, differences
GNP, constant dollars, percent changes
GNP, current dollars
GNP, current dollars, differences
GNP, current dollars, percent changes
GNP, ratio to money supply Ml
Goods output in constant dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP, constant dollars
Gross private domestic investment—See Investment, capital.

H
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Hours, manufacturing
Average weekly hours
Average weekly hours, components
Average weekly hours, Dl
Average weekly overtime

Current issue
Series (page numbers)
number Charts Tables

441
578
577

51
55
55

48c
48
40
974
41
963
442
570
90
46
60
5
962
21
453
452
451
448
42
446
445
447
444
91
37
43
44
45
1

39
17
17
38
14,17
36 ;
51
55
17
16
16
12,16
36
16
51
51
51
51
17
51
51
51
51
15,18
18,51
18
18
18
12,16

961

36

Historical
data
(issue date)

3/89
6/89
6/89
61
62
76
62
74
89
91
62
61
61
61
74
61
89
89
89
89
62
89
89
89
89
62
62,89
62
62
62
61
77
74

8/89
8/89
8/89
7/89
8/89
12/89
3/89
6/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
4/89
2/88
8/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
8/89
8/89

Series
description
(*)

9
56
56
5
5
37
5
5
9
5
9
9
9

12/89

119
94
213
917

11/88
10/88
1/88

33
40
11

35
38
5

11/89

311

11/88

502
501
500
512
511
510
298

52
52
52
52
52
52
46

90
90
90
90
90
90
83

11/89
11/89
11/89
11/89
11/89
11/89
11/88

53
53
53
53
5.3
5$

263
262
265
564
565
267
266
268
261
260

43
43
47
55
55
43
43
47
43
43

81
81
83
91
91
81
81
83
81
81

11/88
11/88
11/88
11/89
11/89
11/88
11/88
11/88
11/88
11/88

43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43

11/89
9/89

49
28

9/89
9/89
9/89
12/89
12/89
12/89
11/89
9/89
11/89
10/88

38
38
38
38
38
38
30
14
38
38

311
50
50b
50c
200
200b
200c
107
49
310
217

19,40

31
20

71
63

46
60

16
16

61
61

3/89
3/89

12,16

61
77
74
61

12/89

961
21

39
40

36
16

63,80
80
80

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Housing
Housing starts
Housing units authorized by local building permits..
Residential GPDI, constant dollars
Residential GPDI, percent of GNP

Current issue
Series (page numbers)
number Charts Tables

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

249

25
13,25
25
47

4/89
9/89
9/89
10/88

24
24
40
40

310

48

345

49
45

87
82

70,83

9/89

73
82

12/89
8/89
11/88

46
33
26
26
11
11

28
29

67
67
67
83

I
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Imports—See International transactions.
Income
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of
national income
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Consumer installment credit, ratio to personal income
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Disposable personal income, constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita,
constant dollars
Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income
National income
Personal income, constant dollars
Personal income, current dollars
Personal income less transfer payments, constant dollars
Rate of change
Total
Personal income, ratio to money supply M2
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
....
Incorporations, new businesses
Industrial commodities, producer price index
Industrial production—See also International comparisons.
Business equipment
Consumer goods
Defense and space equipment
.,
Durable manufactures
Nondurable manufactures
Total
Total, components
Total, Dl
Total, rate of change
Industrials, raw, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Installment credit—See Credit.
Insured unemployment
Average weekly initial claims
Average weekly initial claims, Dl
Average weekly insured unemployment rate
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income
Interest rates
Bank rates on short-term business loans
Corporate bond yields
Federal funds rate
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields
Prime rate charged by banks
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
Intermediate materials, producer price index
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom.
United States.
West Germany.
Industrial production
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
OECD, European countries
United Kingdom
United States.
West Germany

11/89

12/89
11/88

64

30,47

346'
95
286

49
15,35
45

287
225
224

47
40
40

11/88
10/88
10/88

227

40

10/88

340

49

341
652
651
288
289
220
52
223

49
57
57
45
47
45
19
40

46
46

51c
51
108
282

87
93
93
82
83
82
63
63

9/89
9/89
11/88
11/88
10/88
11/89
11/89

5
57
57
47
47
46
11
11

39
14,19 63
31
71
45
82

11/89
11/89
11/89
11/88

11
30
47

lb'88
11/88

47
47

11/88
7/89
7/89

47
53
53

11/89
7/89
5/89

11
21
51

1/89
1/89
10/89
1/89
1/89
6/89

12
12
13
12
12
12

283
284

47
45

285
348
349

47
50
50

53
13
335

19
23
48

83
82

63
65
85

24
67
76
22
75
65
557
54
91
20
73
63
74
20
63
47 14,20,58 63,94
78
966
37
75
47c
39

10/89
12/87

967
23

37
28

79
75
69

10/89
1/88

25
25

5
962
45

289

12,16
36
18
45
47

61
74
62
82
83

4/89
2/88
8/89
11/88
11/88

47
47

67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115
332

35
34
34
34
34
35
34
34
48

73
73
72
73
73
73
72
73
86

9/89

5/88
2/88
5/88
5/88
5/89

35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
50

733
736
737
738
732
320
735

59
59
59
59
59
49
59

96
95
96
95
95
84,95
95

4/88
4/88
4/88
4/88
4/88
3/89
4/88

61
61
61
60
49
61

94
58
723
94
58
726
727
94
58
94
728
58
94
721
58
722
58
94
47 14,20,58 63,94
725
58
94

12/89
6/89
6/89
6/89
6/89
6/89
6/89
6/89

59
59
59
59
58
58
12
59

See notes at end of index.




109

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
International comparisons— Continued
Stock prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan .
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
International transactions
Balance on goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports excluding military aid
Exports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Exports of domestic agricultural products
Exports of goods and services, constant dollars
Exports of goods and services, current dollars
Exports of goods and services, excluding military
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
Imports, general
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Imports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services, constant dollars
Imports of goods and services, current dollars
Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U S investment abroad
Net exports of goods and services,
constant dollars
Net exports of goods and services,
current dollars
Net exports of goods and services, percent of GNP
Inventories
Business inventories, change, constant dollars
Business inventories, change, current dollars
Business inventories, change, percent of GNP
Defense products, manufacturers'
Finished goods manufacturers'
Inventories to sales ratio, manufacturing and trade
Inventory investment and purchasing Cl
Manufacturing and trade
Manufacturing and trade, change
Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade Dl
Manufacturing and trade, on hand and
on order change
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers'
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers', change
Investment, capital
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, Dl
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial
Construction expenditures, business, plus machinery
and equipment sales
Gross private domestic investment
Business inventories, change— See Inventories.
Fixed investment, constant dollars
Fixed investment, current dollars
Nonresidential, constant dollars
Nonresidential, percent of GNP
Nonresidential producers' durable equipment,
constant dollars
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Residential, constant dollars
Residential, percent of GNP.
Total, constant dollars ..
Total, current dollars ....
New orders, nondefense capital goods,
constant dollars
New orders, nondefense capital goods,
current dollars
Plant and equipment
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders current dollars
Expenditures by business constant dollars
Expenditures by business, current dollars
Expenditures by business Dl
Investment, foreign
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Italy— See International comparisons.

Current issue
Series (page numbers)
number Charts Tables

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

743
746
747
748
742
19
745

59
59
59
59
59
59
59

96
96
96
96
96
96
96

6/89
6/89
6/89
6/89
6/89
6/89
6/89

63
63
63
63
63
25
63

667
622
602
618
604
256
252
668
606
612
620
616
669
257
253
614
652
651

57
57
56
57
56
44
44
57
56
56
57
56
57
44
44
56
57
57

93
93
92
93
92'
82
82
93
92
92
93
92
93
82
82
92
93
93

9/89
9/89
7/89
9/89
7/89

7/89
9/89
9/89

57
57
56
57
56
44
44
57
56
56
57
56
57
44
44
56
57
57

255

44

82

10/88

44

250
251

44
47

82
83

10/88
10/88

44
44

30
245
247
559
65
77
915
71
31
70
975

26,42
42
47
54
27
15,27
11
27
26
27
38

68,81
81
83
91
68
68
60
68
68
68
76

9/89

8/89
1/88
9/89
9/89
9/89
7/89

40
40
40
17
17
17
5
17
17
17
37

36

26

68

9/89

17

78

27

68

12/88

17

38

26

68

12/88

17

97
11
965
914
9

24
24
37

5/88
5/88

11/89

'23'

66
66
75
60
66

1/86
5/88

22
22
22
5
21

69

24

67

11/89

17

243
242
86
248

42
42
25
47

81
81
67
83

10/88
10/88

40
40
40
40

88
87
89
249
241
240

25
25
25
47
42
42

67
67
67
83
81
81

9/89
9/89
9/89

10/88
10/88
10/88

40
40
40
40
40
40

27

23

66

12/89

15

24

23

66

12/89

15

20
10
100
61
970

12,23
23
24
24
38

66
66
67
67
76

12/89
12/89
12/89
12/89
12/89

21
21

652
651

57
57

93
93

9/89
9/89

57
57

10/88
10/88
9/89
7/89
7/89
9/89
7/89
9/89

11/88
10/88

10/88
10/88
9/88

12/88

9/89

10/88

23
23

J
Japan— See International comparisons.

L
Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product
Labor cost per unit of output, business sector
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Index
Percent change
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business.
Labor force— See Employment.
Lagging indicators
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
See notes at end of index.

110



68
63

30
30

70
70

11/89

28
28

62
62
26

30
15
29

70
97
70

11/89
11/89
11/89

'28'

930
930c
952

10
39
36

60

10/89
10/89
10/89

74

9/89

28

5
5

Current issue
Series (page numbers)
number Charts Tables

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Leading indicators
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Liabilities of business failures
Liquid assets, change in total
Loans— See Credit

950
14
104

'74'

10/89
10/89
10/89

72
71

7/89
4/89

78

27

68

12/88

17

38
84
8

26
20
12,21

68
64
64

12/88

17
14
15

917

11

60

1/88

5

104
105
85
106
102
107
108
33
118
117

N
National defense— See Defense.
National Government— See Government.
National income— See Income.
New orders, manufacturers'
Capital goods industries, nondefense,
constant dollars
Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dollars
Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
current dollars
Defense products
Durable goods industries, constant dollars
Durable goods industries, current dollars
Components
Diffusion index
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
:....;
Nonresidential fixed investment
Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars
Structures, constant dollars
Total constant dollars
Total, percent of GNP

P
Participation rates, civilian labor force
Both sexes 16-19 years of age
Females 20 years and over,
Males 20 years and over.
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles
Durable goods, constant dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Nondurable goods, constant dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services, constant dollars
Services, current dollars
Total, constant dollars .
Total, current dollars ...
Total, percent of GNP
Personal income— See Income.
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Petroleum and petroleum products, imports

Series
description
(*)

10
39
36
33
31

31
31
31
13,31
31
31
31
32
34
34

71
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
73
73

4/89
4/89
4/89
4/89
4/89

29
29
29
30
29
30
30
31
35
35

27
24
8

23
23
12,21

66
66
64

12/89
12/89
4/89

15
15
15

20

12,23

66

12/89

21

10
548
7
6

23
53
21
21

12/89
9/88
4/89
4/89

21
15
15
15

964
971

37
38

66
90
64
64
77
75
76

9/88
7/89

15
37

88
87
86
248

25
25
25
47

67
67
67
83

9/89
9/89
9/89

10/88

40
40
40
40

517
543
721

53
53
58

90
90
94

6/89
6/89
6/89

55
55
58

580

54

91

7/89

56

49

20

63

9/89

14

62
62
370
358
82
84
21

30
15
50
50
20
20
16

70
97
88
88
64
64
61

11/89
11/89
12/89
12/89

28

1/89
1/89
8/89

52
14
14
5

453
452
451

51
51
51

89
89
89

3/89
3/89
3/89

9
9
9

55
233
232
238
236
239
237
231
230
235

22
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
47

65
80
80
81
81
81
81
80
80
83

9/89

10/88
10/88
10/88
10/88
10/88
10/88
10/88
10/88
10/88

39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39

292
293
614

46
46
56

82
83
92

910
910c

M
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers' inventories
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers' inventories, change
Materials, capacity utilization rate
Materials, new orders for consumer goods and
Materials prices— See Price indexes.
Merchandise trade— See International transactions.
Military— See Defense.
Money and financial flows, Cl
Money supply
Liquid assets, change in total
Money supply Ml, constant dollars
Money supply Ml, percent changes
Money supply M2, constant dollars
Money supply M2, percent changes
Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml
Ratio, personal income to money supply M2
Mortgage debt, net change
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields

0
Obligations incurred Defense Department
Obligations unpaid Defense Department
OECD European countries industrial production
Orders— See New orders and Unfilled orders.
Outlays, Defense Department
Output— See also Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Goods output, constant dollars
Labor cost per unit of
Index
Percent change.
Per hour, business sector
Per hour, nonfarm business sector
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing
Ratio to capacity, materials
Overtime hours, manufacturing

data
(issue date)

'.

.

.. . .

.

60

1/89
4/89

11/89
11/89
9/86
6/88
5/88

11/88
11/88
7/89

5
"5"

34
29

'52'

48
48
56

Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Plant and equipment— See also Investment, capital.
Contracts and orders, constant dollars ,
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Expenditures by business, constant dollars.
Expenditures by business, current dollars.
Expenditures by business, Dl
Population, civilian employment as percent of
Price indexes
Consumer prices— See also International comparisons.
All items
Food
Deflators
Fixed-weighted, gross domestic business product
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Producer prices
All commodities
Capital equipment
Crude materials
Finished consumer goods.
Industrial commodities
Intermediate materials
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials.....
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
. .
Spot market index
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
Stock prices— See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks Dl
Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
Prices, selling
Retail trade Dl
Wholesale trade, Dl
Prime contract awards, Defense Department
Prime rate charged by banks
Producer prices — See Price indexes
Producers' durable equipment, nonresidential, GPDI
Production— See Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Productivity
Output per hour, business sector
Output per hour, nonfarm business sector
Profits
Corporate profits after tax
Constant dollars
Current dollars
With IVA and CCAdj, constant dollars
With IVA and CCAdj, current dollars
Corporate profits before tax
With IVA and CCAdj
With IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income
Manufacturing and trade Dl
Manufacturing, Dl
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Profitability, Cl
Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income
Ratio, profits with IVA and CCAdj to corporate
domestic income
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of
national income

R
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income
Reserves, free
Residential fixed investment, constant dollars

Current issue
Series (page numbers)
number Charts Tables

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

21
21

20
10
100
61
970
90

12,23
23
24
24
38
17

66
66
67
67
76
62

12/89
12/89
12/89
12/89
12/89

320
322
120

49
49
15

84,95
84
97

3/89
3/89
2/89

49
49

311
310
26

48
48
29

84
84
70

11/89
11/89
11/89

49
38
28

330
333
331
334
335
332
98

48
48
48
48
48
48
28

85
86
85
86
85
86
69

5/89
5/89
5/89
5/89
5/89
5/89
8/89

50
51
50
51
51
50
51

967'

'37'

10/89

'25'

23

28

79
75
69

1/88

25

98
99

28
13,28

69
69

8/89
2/89

51
25

19
968
26

13,28
37
29

69
75
70

12/88
12/88
11/89

25
25
28

976
978
977
525
109

38
38
38
53
35

76
76
76
90
73

7/89
7/89
7/89
6/89
2/88

37
37
37
55
35

88

25

67

9/89

40

3/89

23
9

50
50
11

88
88
60

12/89
12/89
1/88

52
52
5

18
16
80
79

28
28
29
29

69
69
69
69

9/89
9/89
9/89
9/89

26
26
26
26

286
287
972
960
15
916
22

45
47
38
37
29
11
29

82
83
76
75
70
60
69

11/88
11/88

26
26
37
37
27
5
26

81
282

29
45

70
82

9/89

11/88

26
47

283

47

83

11/88

47

967
23
284

'37'

28
45

79
75
69
82

285
93
89

47
33
25

83
72
67

10/89

'25'

1/88

25
47

11/88
11/88
11/88
9/89

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

249

47

83

10/88

40

59
54

22
22

65
65

8/89
8/89

20
20

213

40

80

10/88

38

69
57
56
973
77
59
54

24
14.22 •
22
38
15,27
22
22

67
65
65
76
68
65
65

11/89
8/89
8/89
7/89
8/89
8/89
8/89

17
17
17
37
17
20
20

..

295
298
290
292
293

46
46
46
46
46

82
83
82
82
83

11/88
11/88
11/88
11/88
11/88

26
48
48
48
48

..

98
99
588

28
13,28
54

69
69
91

8/89
2/89
9/88

51
25
17

967
23

37
28

79
75
69

10/89
1/88

25

..

19
968

13,28
37

69
75

12/88
12/88

25
25

..

114
115

34
34

72
73

5/88
5/88

35
35

..

91
60
5
962

15,18
16
12,16
36

62
61
61
74

3/89
3/89
4/89
2/88

9
9
8
8

446
445
447
444
37

51
51
51
51
18,51

89
89
89
89
62,89

3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89
3/89

9
9
9
9
9

43
44
45

18
18
18

62
62
62

3/89
3/89
8/89

9
9
8

561
92
96
25

54
13
21
21

91
97
64
64

9/88
2/89
9/88
9/88

V
Velocity of money
GNP to money supply Ml, ratio ..
Personal income to money supply M2, ratio
Vendor performance, slower deliveries

107
108
32

31
31
12,21

71
71
64

11/89
11/89

W
Wages and salaries— See Compensation.
West Germany— See International comparisons.
Wholesale (producer) prices— See Price indexes.
Workweek, manufacturing
Average weekly hours
Components
Diffusion index

1

12,16

961

'36'

61
77
74

Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP
Residential structures— See Housing.
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars

'23'

370
358
916

7/89
5/88
9/89
1/88
9/89

Current issue
Series (page numbers)
number Charts Tables

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

47
35
40

s
Salaries— See Compensation.
Sales
Final sales, constant dollars
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales Dl
Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
Retail sales constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Saving
Business saving
Government surplus or deficit .
Gross saving
Personal saving
. .
Personal saving rate
Selling prices— See Prices, selling
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
Shipments of defense products
Spot market prices, raw industrials
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
State and local government— See Government.
Stock prices— See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks ...
500 common stocks, Dl
Surplus— See Government.

.

'25'

T
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields

U
Unemployment
Duration of unemployment average
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims for unemployment insurance
Initial claims for unemployment insurance, Dl
Number unemployed
Both sexes 16-19 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Full-time workers
Males 20 years and over
Total unemployed
Unemployment rates
Civilian
15 weeks and over . . .
Insured unemployment
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products
Durable goods industries, constant dollars, change
Durable goods industries, current dollars
Durable goods industries current dollars change
United Kingdom— See International comparisons.

..
..
....

2/89

15
'l5'

15

30
30
17

8/89

5

12/89

"5

NOTE: CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GNP, gross national product; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; IVA, inventory valuation adjustment.
* The number shown is the page of the Handbook of Cyclical Indicators (1984) on which the series description appears.




111

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Series are listed below according to the sections of this
report in which they appear. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect relationships or
order among the series. "M" following a series title
indicates monthly data; "Q" indicates quarterly data.
Data apply to the whole period except when indicated by
"EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter).
To save space, the commonly used sources listed below
are referred to by number:
Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, and McGrawHill Information Systems Company
(23,66)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).—The Conference
Board
(24,66)
12. Index of net business formation (M).—Source 1
and Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(23,65)
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(23,65)
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).—Dun
& Bradstreet, Inc.
(33,72)

34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(29,70)
35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(29,70)
36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on
hand and on order in 1982 dollars (M).—Sources 1
and 2
(26,68)
37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3

(18,51,62,89)
38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials
and supplies on hand and on order (M).—Source 2
(26,68)

Following the source for each series is an indication of
the pages on which that series appears. The "Series
Finding Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers
for each series.

15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations (Q) .-Sou rce 2
(29,70)

39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent
30 days and over (EOM).—American Bankers
Association
(33,72)

16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(28,69)

40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goodsproducing industries (M).—Source 3
(17,62)

I-A. Composite Indexes

18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(28,69)
19. index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—
Standard & Poor's Corporation
(13,28,59,69,96)
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
1982 dollars (M)-Sources 1, 2, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company
(12,23,66)

41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (M).—Source
3
(14,17,62)

910. Composite index of eleven leading indicators
(includes series 1, 5, 8, 19, 20, 29, 32, 83, 92, 99,
106) (M).-Source 1
(10,39,60)
914. Composite index of capital investment commitments
(includes series 12,20,29) (M).-Source 1
(60)
915. Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 99) (M).-Source
1
(11,60)
916. Composite index of profitability (includes series
19,26,80) (M).-Soureel
(11,60)
917. Composite index of money and financial flows
(includes series 104, 106, 111) (M).-Source
1
(11,60)
920. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators (includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)
930. Composite index of seven lagging indicators (includes
series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109, 120) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)
940. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to
fagging composite index (series 930) (M).—Source
1
(11,60)

I-B. Cyclical Indicators
1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—Source 3

(12,16,61,77)
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs (M).—U.S. Department
of Labor, Employment and Training Administration;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—
Source 3
(16,61)
22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to total
corporate domestic income (Q).—Source 1 (29,69)
23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials (M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau,
Inc. (Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981,
this series may not be reproduced without written
permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.)

(28,69,79)
24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Source 2
(23,66)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable
goods industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64)
26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost,
nonfarm business sector (Q).—Sources 1 and 3
(29,70)
27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Sources 1
and 2
(23,66)
28. New private housing units started (M).—Source
2
(25,67)
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by
local building permits (M).-Source 2
(13,25,67)

(12,16,61)

30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(26,42,68,81)

6. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, durable
goods industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64,77)

31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories
(M).-Sourcesland2
(26,68)

7. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods industries (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (21,64)

32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries diffusion index
(M).—National Association of Purchasing Management and Purchasing Management Association of
Chicago
(12,21,64)

8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (M).—Sources
1 and 2
(12,21,64)
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings, floor space (M) .—McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (Used by
permission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
(23,66)

112



33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies (M).—
Sources 1; 4; American Council of Life Insurance;
Federal National Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; and Federal Home
Loan Bank Board
(32,71)

42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (M).-Sou rce 3
(17,62)
43. Unemployment rate (M).-Source 3

(18,62)

44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks
and over (M).-Source 3
(18,62)
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration
(18,62)
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers
(M).—The Conference Board
(16,61)
47. Index of industrial production (M).—Source 4

(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
48. Employee hours in nonagricuitural establishments
(M).-Source3
(17,39,61)
49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(20,63)
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source

1

(19,39,40,63,80)

51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982
dollars (M).-Source 1
(14,19,39,63)
52. Personal income in 1982 dollars (M).—Source 1

(19,63)
53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Source 1 (19,63)
54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).-Source
2
(22,65)
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles
(Q).-Sourcel
(22,65)
56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars
(M).-Sourcesland2
(22,65)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars
(M).-Sources land 2
(14,22,65)
58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M).—University
of Michigan, Survey Research Center (Used by
permission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
(22,65)
59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1
and 2
(22,65)
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to
number of persons unemployed (M).—Sources 1,
3, and The Conference Board
(16,61)
61. New plant and equipment expenditures by business
in current dollars (Q).-Sou rce 2
(24,67)
62. Sndex of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(15,30,70,97)

AND

OF

63. Index of unit labor cost, business sector (Q).— Source
3
(30,70)
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q). -Source 1
(30,47,70,83)

90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (M).—Sources 1 and 3
(17,62)

65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods
(EOM). -Source 2
(27,68)

92. Change in manufacturers' untied orders in 1982

91. Average duration of unemployment in weeks (M).—
Source 3

(15,18,62)

dollars, durable goods industries (M).— Sources 1,
2, and 3
(13,97)

66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (EOM).—
Source 4
(35,73)

93. Free reserves (M).—Source 4

67. Bank rates on short-term business toans (Q).— Source
4.
(35,73)

94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
(M).-Source4
(33,72)

68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross
domestic product in 1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations (Q).-Source 1
(30,70)

95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to
personal income (M).—Sources 1 and 4
(15,35,73)

69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (M).—Source

2

(24,67)

70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1982 dol; lars (EOM).-Sources land 2
(27,68)
71. Manufacturing and trade inventories in current
dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2
(27,68)
72. Commercial and industrial Soans outstanding in-current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4 and The Federal
Reserve Bank of New York
(35,73)
73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures (M). -Source 4
(20,63)
74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures (M).-Source 4
(20,63)
75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods
(M).-Source4
(22,65)
76. Index of industrial production, • business equipment
(M).-Source 4
(24,67)
77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in
1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(15,27,68)
71. Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies
on hand and on order (EOM).—Source 2
(27,68)
79. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars (Q).-Sourcel
(29,69)
SO. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in 1982
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(29,69)
81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with
inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate domestic income (Q).—
Source 1
(29,70)
82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (M).—
Source 4
(20,64)
S3. Index of consumer expectations (Q,M).—University
of Michigan, Survey Research Center (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
(13,97)
84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (M).-Source
4
(20,64)
85. Chaivlninoneysupp|yMl.(M).-Source4

(31,71)

(33,72)

96. Manufacturers' united orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Source 2
(21,64)

97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (EQQ).—The Conference Board
(24,66)
98. Percent change in producer prices for sensitive
crude and intermedia!© materials (M).—Sources 1
and 3
(28,69)
99. Change in sensitive materials prices (M).—Sources 1,
3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
(13,28,69)
100. Hew plant and equipment expenditures by business
in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 2
(24,67)
101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982
dollars (M).—Sources 1. 4, and The Federal Reserve
Bank of New York
(15,35,73)

102. Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4 (31,71)
104. Change in total liquid assets (M).—Sources 1 and
4
(31,71)
l
105. iorey supply i in I9S2 dollars (M).-Sources 1
and 4
(31,71)
106. loney supply 12 in 19S2 dollars (M).—Sources 1
and 4
(13,31,71)

107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply il
(Q).-Sourcesl and 4

(31,71)

950. Diffusion index of eleven leading indicator components (M).-Sou reel
(36,74)
95L Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator
components (M).—Soureel
(36,74)
952. Diffusion index of seven Sagging indicator components
(M).-Sou reel
(36,74)
960. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing—about;
600 companies (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used
by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (37,75)
961. Diffusion index of average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing
industries (M).-Sources 1 and 3
(36,74,77)
962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, 51 areas (M).—Source
1 and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and
Training Administration
(36,74)
963. Diffusion index of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 349 industries (M).—Source
3
(36,74)
964. Diffusion index of manufacturers' new orders, 34-35
durable goods industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2
(37,75,77)
965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations in 19S2 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries (Q).—The Conference Board
(37,75)
966. Diffusion index of industrial production, 24 industries (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(37,75,78)
967. Diffusion index of spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials (M).—Sources 1, 3, and Commodity
Research Bureau, Inc.
(37,75,79)
961. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks,
38-12 industries (M).—Source 1 and Standard &
Poor's Corporation
(37,75)

108. Ratio, personal income to m«y supply 12 (M).—
Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)
Average prim© rate charged by banks (M).—Source
4
(15,35,73)

970. Diffusion index of new plant and equipment expenditures by business, 21 industries (Q).—Sources 1
and 2
(38,76)

Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
credit markets (Q).-Source 4
(32,72)
Change in business and consumer credit outstanding
(M).—Sources 1, 4, Federal Home Loan Bank Board,
and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York
(32,72)
112 Net change in business toans (M).—Sources 1, 4,
and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (32,71)
Net change in consumer installment credit (M).—
Source 4
(32,72)
Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury
^
biSSs(M).-Source 4
(34,72)
11Sl Yield-on long-term Treasury
(M).—U.S. Department of the Treasury
(34,73)

972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This
series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)

m

116>

86. Gross private noraresidintial fixed investment in
19S2 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)

117>

87. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1912 dollars/structures (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)

118§

.Yield @rs new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(M).—Citibank and U.S. Department of the Treasury
(34,73)
Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).—The
Bond Buyer
(34,73)
Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).—
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development,
Federal Housing Administration
(34,73)

88. Gross private nonresident sal ted investment in
1982 dollars, producers' durable equipment (Q).—
Source 1
(25,67)

119, Federal funds rate (M).—Source 4

89. Gross private residential feed investment in 19S2
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)

120. Change-in' consumer price index for services (M).—
Sources 1 and 2
(15,97)




I-C. Diffusion Waxes

(34,72)

971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about
600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)

973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This
series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
974. Diffusion index • of • number of employees, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reprtsng
(Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting
(Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)

113

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
976. Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing—
about 600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(38,76)
977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale tradeabout 400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(38,76)

243. Gross private domestic fixed investment in 1982
dollars (Q).-Soureel

(42,81)

245. Change in business inventories in current dollars
(Q).-Sourcel

(42,81)

247. Change in business inventories as a percent of
gross national product (Q).—Source 1

(47,83)

248. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment as a
percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)

978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade-about
400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)

249. Gross private residential fixed investment as a

II-A. National Income and Product

251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of

percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)

250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars
(Q).-Sourcel
gross national product (Q).—Source 1

(44,82)
(47,83)

30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(26,42,68,81)

252. Exports of goods and services in current dollars

50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)

253. imports of goods and services in current dollars

64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).—Source 1
(30,47,70,83)

255. Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars

200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(40,80)

256. Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars

213. Final sales in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1

257. Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars

(40,80)

(Q).-Source 1

(Q).-Source 1
(Q).-Source 1
(Q).-Source 1
(Q).-Source 1

(44,82)

(44,82)
(44,82)
(44,82)
(44,82)

289. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q).—
Sou reel
(47,83)
290. Gross saving (Q).-Sou reel

(46,82)

292. Personal saving (Q).-Source 1

(46,82)

293. Personal saving rate (Q).—Source 1

(46,83)

295. Business saving (Q).-Source 1

(46,82)

298. Government surplus or deficit (Q).—Source 1
(46,83)

ll-B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
310. Implicit price deflator for gross national product
(Q).-Source 1
(48,84)
311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product (Q).—Source 1
, (48,84)
320. Consumer price index for all urban consumers
(M).-Source 3
(49,59,84,95)
322. Consumer price index for all urban consumers,
food (M).-Source 3
(49,84)
330. Producer price index, all commodities (M).—Source
3
(48,85)
331. Producer price index, crude materials for further
processing (M).—Source 3
(48,85)
332. Producer price index, intermediate materials, supplies, and components (M).—Source 3
(48,86)

217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Sources land 2
(40,80)

260. Government purchases of goods and services in

220. National income in current dollars (Q).—Source
1
(45,82)

261. Government purchases of goods and services in

223. Personal income in current dollars (M).—Source
1
(40,63)

262. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser-

224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(40,80)

263. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser-

225. Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(40,80)

265. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser-

227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q).—Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)

vices as a percent of gross national product (Q) .—
Source 1
(47,83)

230. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)

266. State and local government purchases of goods and

231. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(41,80)

267. State and local government purchases of goods and

232. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, durable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,80)

268. State and local government purchases of goods and

346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source
3
(49,50,88)

services as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Source 1
(47,83)

348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average
first year changes (Q).—Source 3
(50,88)

280. Compensation of employees (Q) .—Source 1 (45,82)
282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and

349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average
changes over life of contract (Q) —Source 3 (50,88)

233. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, durable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,80)
235. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of
gross national product (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
236. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, nondurable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,81)
237. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, services (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
238. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, nondurable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,81)
239. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, services (Q).—Source 1
(41,81)
240. Gross private domestic investment in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
241. Gross private domestic investment in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
242. Gross private domestic fixed investment in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)

114



current dollars (Q).—Source 1
1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
vices in current dollars (Q).—Source 1
vices in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1

services in current dollars (Q).—Source 1
services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1

(43,81)
(43,81)
(43,81)
(43,81)

(43,81)
(43,81)

capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source
1
(45,82)

283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments as a percent of
national income (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)

284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment (Q).-Source 1

(45,82)

285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)

286. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—
Source 1
(45,82)

287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments as a
percent of national income (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)

288. Net interest (Q) .-Sou rce 1

(45,82)

333. Producer price index, capital equipment (M).—
Source3
(48,86)
334. Producer price index, finished consumer goods
(M).-Source 3
(48,86)
335. Producer price index, industrial commodities
(M).-Source3
(48,85)
340. Index of average hourly earnings of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural
payrolls (M).-Source 3
(49,50,87)
341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production
or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (M).-Source 3
(49,50,87)
345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3 (49,50,87)

358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3
(50,88)
370. Index of output per hour, all persons, business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(50,88)

ll-C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3

(18,51,62,89)
441.

Civilian labor force (M).-Source 3

442. Civilian employment (M).-Source 3

(51,89)
(51,89)

444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over
(M).-Source 3
(51,89)
445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over

(M).-Source 3

(51,89)

TITLES AND

OF SERIES-Continued

446. Number unemployed, both sexes 1649 years of
age (M).—Sources
(51,89)
447. Slumber unemployed, fuSI-tirne workers (M).—
Source 3
(51,89)
448. Number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (M).—Source 3
(51,89)
451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20
years and over (M).—Source 3
(51,89)
452. Civilian labor force participation rate, femaSes 20
years and over (M).—Source 3
(51,89)
453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes
16-19 years of age (M)-Source 3
(51,89)

II-D.
500. Federal Government syrpSus or deficit (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)
501. Federal Government receipts (Q).—Source 1

(52,90)
502. Federal Government expenditures (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)
510. State and test government surplus or deficit (Q).Source 1
(52,90)
511. State and local government receipts (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)
512. State and local government expenditures (Q).—
Source 1
(52,90)
517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred
(M).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the
Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
525. Defense Department prime contract awards for work
performed in the United States (M).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of
Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters
Services, Directorate for Information Operations
and Reports; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
543. Defense Department' gross unpaid obligations
outstanding (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense,
Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(53,90)
548. Manufacturers' new orders,
Source 2

products (M).(53,90)

570. Employment, defense products industries (M).—
Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(55,91)
577. Defense Department military personnel on active
duty (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office
of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports
(55,91)
578. Defense Department civilian personnel, direct lire employment (EOM)—U.S. Department of Defense, Office
of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller),
Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for
Information Operations and Reports; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(55,91)
5SO. Defense Department mi outlays, military functions
and military assistance (M).—U.S. Department of
Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense
(Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(54,91)




721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European countries, index of industrial
production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(58,94)
722. United Kingdom, index ©f industrial production
(M) -Central Statistical Office (London)
(58,94)
723. Canada, index of industrial production (M).—
Statistics Canada (Ottawa)
(58,94)
725. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(58,94)
726. France, index of industrial production (M).-Institut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(58,94)

728. Japan, index of industrial production (M).-Ministry
of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(58,94)

602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments (M).—
Source 2
(56,92)
604. Exports of domestic agricultural products (M).Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(56,92)
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).—Source
2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
612. General imports (M).-Source 2

(56,92)

614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
(M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(56,92)
616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).—Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(56,92)
618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Sourcel
(57,93)
620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).—Source 1
(57,93)
651. Income on U.S. investment abroad (Q).—Source
1
(57,93)
652. Income on foreign investment in the United States
(Q).-Sourcel
(57,93)

559. Manufacturers' inventories,
(EOM).-Source 2

565. National defense purchases as a percent of gross
national product (Q).—Source 1
(55,91)

320. United States, consumer price index for all urban
consumers (M).—Source 3
(49,59,84,95)

II-E. U.S.

66S. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1
(57,93)

564. Federal Government purchases ®f goods and services, national defense (Q).—Source 1
(55,91)

(M).(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)

727. Italy, index of industrial production (M).-lstituto
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(58,94)

667. Balance on goods and services (Q).—Source 1

561. ianufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products
(EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)

index of

5SS. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (M).—
Source 2
(54,91)

557. Index of Industrial production, defense and space
equipment (M).-Source 4
(54,91)
defense products
(54,91)

47. United
Source4

(57,93)

669. Imports of goods and services (Q).—Source 1

(57,93)
II-F. International Compariscms
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (M).—Standard & Poor's Corporation

(13,28,59,69,96)

732. United Kingdom, consumer price index (M).—
Department of Employment (London); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(59,95)
733. Canada, consumer price index (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted
by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
735. West Germany, consumer price index (M).—
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,95)
736. France, consumer price index (M).—Institut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris);
percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(59,95)
737. Italy, consumer price index (M).—Istituto Centrale di
Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
738. Japan, consumer price index (M).—Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(59,95)
742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-Central
Statistical Office (London)
(59,96)
743. Canada, index of stock prices (M).-Toronto Stock
Exchange (Toronto)
(59,96)
745. West Germany, index of stock prices (M).—
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(59,96)
746. France, index of stock prices (M)-Institut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)

(59,96)
747. Italy, index of stock prices (M).—Banca d'ltalia
(Rome)
(59,96)
74S. Japan, index of stock prices (M).—Bank of Japan
(Tokyo)
(59,96)

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