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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary
Robert Ortner, Under Secretary for Economic Affairs
BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Allan H. Young, Director
Carol S. Carson, Deputy Director
Edward K. Smith, Associate Director for
National Analysis and Projections
FeliksTamm, Editor

This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic
Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are—
Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review
Brian D. Kajutti—Composite indexes
Mary D. Young—Data collection and compilation (Phone: 202-523-0541)
The cooperation of Government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully
acknowledged, Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and
sources at the back of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consisting
of the following persons:
Ronald E. Kutscher, Acting Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of
Labor
Ahmad AI-Samarriet Office of Management and Budget
John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury
Andrea Kusko, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Edward K. Smith, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
Charles A. Waite, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce

ABOUT THIS REPORT
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides
a monthly look at many of the economic time
series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters.
The original BCD, which began publication
in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions
and prospects. The report's contents were based
largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident,
and lagging indicators maintained by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its
usefulness to analysts using other approaches to
business conditions analysis. Principal additions
to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on
surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's
present title was adopted.
The dominant feature of the current BCD is
the cyclical indicators section, in which each
business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way
timing classification according to its behavior at
peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is
supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of
presentation is explained in the introductory text
which begins on page 1.

Annual subscription price: $44.00 domestic,
$55.00 foreign. Single copy price: $4.00 domestic, $5.00 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are
available on request. Address correspondence

Most of the data contained in this report
also are published by their source agencies. A
series finding guide and a complete list of series
titles and sources can be found at the back of the
report.
Cyclical Indicators are economic time series
which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process
and by their average timing at business cycle
peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks
and troughs combined. These indicators have
been selected primarily on the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but they also have proven
useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate
economic activity.
Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business
conditions and prospects. They include selected
components of the national income and product
accounts; measures of prices, wages, and
productivity; measures of the labor force,
employment, and unemployment; economic
data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with
major foreign countries.
concerning subscriptions to Superintendent of
Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402. Make checks payable
to Superintendent of Documents.

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST

New Features and Changes for This Issue

BCII

jjj

METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Part I. Cyclical Indicators
Part II. Other Important Economic Measures
How To Read Charts
How To Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes

1
1
1
1
4
5
5
6

DECEMBER 1986
Data Through November
Volume 26, Number 12

PART I.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND
THEIR COMPONENTS

Al
A2
A3
A4

I

Chart

Table

10
12
14
15

60
—
—
—

'16
19
21
23
26
28
31

61
63
64
65
68
69
71

36
—
39

Composite Indexes
Leading Index Components
Coincident Index Components
Lagging Index Components

74
77
—

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
£1.

Employmentand Unemployment
Production and Income
Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit

B2
B3

B4
B5
B6_
B7

DIFFUSION INDEXES
AND RATES OF CHANGE
Cl
C2
C3

I
I

Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
Rates of Change

The Secretary of Commerce has determined
that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business
required by law of this Department. Use of funds




for printing this periodical has been approved
by the Director of the Office of Management
and Budget through September 30, 1987.

BCI»




PART II.
OTHER IMPORTANT
ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME
"ATI
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8 |

AND PRODUCT
GNP and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Foreign Trade
National Income and Its Components
Saving
Shares of GNP and National Income

Wm

Price Movements
Wages and Productivity

Q

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT,
AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Cl ]

Civilian Labor Force and Major Components

Table
80
80
81
81
82
82
82
83

PRICES, WAGES,
AND PRODUCTIVITY

Bl I
12~|

Chart
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47

48
49

84
87

51

89

52
53

90
90

56
57

92
93

58
59
59

94
95
96

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Dl
D2 I

Receipts and Expenditures
Defense Indicators

El I
E2 |

Merchandise Trade
Goods and Services Movements

Fl ~|
F2
F3 I

Industrial Production
Consumer Prices
Stock Prices

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

PART III. APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators)
QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators)
B. Current Adjustment Factors
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
D. Descriptions and Sources Of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide")
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (July 1986 issue)
F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators (October 1986 issue)
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series

97
98

106
110
114

Readers are invited to submit comments and
suggestions concerning this publication.
Address them to Feliks Tamm, Chief, Statistical
Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230

NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE

A limited number of

BCD DATA ON DISKETTE

changes are made from
time to time to in-

Data for most BCD series are available on diskette. Current data, covering the
last 5 calendar years, are available on a subscription basis—one diskette per
month for 12 months ($240). Historical data, covering 1945 to date, are
available on a set of five diskettes ($100). For more information, write to the
Statistical Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of
Commerce, Washington, DC 20230.

corporate recent findings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,

Changes in this issue are as follows:

seasonal adjustment

1. The Bureau of Economic Analysis plans to make a
change in the calculation of the composite index of leading
indicators (series 910) effective with the publication of the
February index in the March 1987 issue of BCJL At that time,
the series on net business formation (series 12) will be suspended from the index. This suspension is necessary because
this series has deteriorated as a measure of change in the
business population, primarily because of the poor quality of
one component of the series and the unavailability of data of
another component in time for inclusion in the initial release. The composite index of capital investment commitments
(series 914), of which net business formation also is a component, will be discontinued in the March 1987 issue.

methods, benchmark

2. The series on funds raised by private nonfinancial
borrowers in credit markets (series 110) has been revised by
the source agency for the period 1952 to date to reflect
corrected data.
Further information concerning this revision may be
obtained from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System, Division of Research and Statistics, Flow of Funds
Section.
3. Appendix C contains historical data for series 5,
10, 11, 20, 47, 67, 73-76, 82, 84, 97, 286-290, 292, 293,
295, 298, 557, 723, 962, and 966.
4. Appendix G contains cyclical comparisons for series
41, 46, 53, and 920.
The January issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled
for release on February 9.



data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of
indexes, etc.

HANDBOOK
OF
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
' *'i ','[ f^'

:«v«

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD)

HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS

. . . a monthly report that helps you analyze the current
economy and future trends.

. . . a statistical and technical supplement that helps you
make maximum use of the monthly Business Conditions
Digest.

BCD has "a plethora of charts that., . provide more
information and perspective per minute of reading time than
anything else you can find," according to Edgar R. Fiedler,
former president of the National Association of Business
Economists. (Across the Board, February 1984.)

The HANDBOOK contains:
• Descriptions of all BCD series, providing definitions,
methods of compilation, coverage, and sources.
• Historical data for 1947-82 for all BCD series.

BCD contains:
• Charts providing a 25-year perspective for about 300
economic time series that cover all major aspects of
the economy. Expansions and contractions in the U.S.
economy are clearly marked so that the leading, coincident,
and lagging characteristics of the series are easy to
observe.

• Composite index methodology explaining the construction of the indexes in step-by-step detail.
• Reference materials including—
Scores for cyclical indicators
Average leads or lags for cyclical indicators

• Tables listing current data for all 300 series.

Measures of variability

• Appendixes providing historical data, cyclical turning
points, cyclical comparisons, and seasonal adjustment
factors.

Business cycle turning dates
Bibliography
Addresses of data sources.

Mai To: Su

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METHOD OF PRESENTATION
This report is organized into two major parts.
Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time
series which have been found to conform well to
broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of
economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are
individual indicators, the rest are related analytical
measures; Composite indexes, diffusion indexes,
and rates of change. Part II, Other Important
Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which
are valuable to business analysts and forecasters
but which do not conform well enough to business
cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a
few exceptions: Four series which are included in
part I are also shown in part II to complete the
systematic presentation of certain sets of data,
such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest
section of part II consists of quarterly series from
the national income and-product accounts; other
sections relate to prices, labor force, government
and defense-related activities, and international
transactions and comparisons.
The two parts are further divided into sections
(see table of contents), and each of these sections
is described briefly in this introduction. Data are
shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts
begin with 1959, but those for the composite
indexes and their components (part I, section A)
begin with 1950, and a few charts use a two-panel
format which covers only the period since 1975.
Except for section F in part II, charts contain
shading which indicates periods of recession in
general business activity. The tables contain data
for only the last few years. The historical data for
the various time series are contained in the 1984
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
In addition to the charts and tables described
above, each issue contains a summary table which
shows the current behavior of many of the series.
Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors,
measures of variability, specific cycle turning
dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other
information of analytical interest. An index appears
at the back of each issue. It should be noted that
the series numbers used are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect precise
relationships or order. However, all series
considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in
the range 1 to 199.
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations
are often necessary to bring out the underlying
trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for
the effects of repetitive intrayear variations
resulting primarily from normal differences in
weather conditions and from various institutional
arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays
are usually accounted for by the seasonal
adjustment process; however, a separate holiday




adjustment is occasionally required for holidays
with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional
adjustment is sometimes necessary for series
which contain considerable variation due to the
number of working or trading days in each month.
As used in this report, the term "seasonal
adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday
adjustments where they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in
seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these
are the official figures released by the source
agencies. However, for the special purposes of this
report, a number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a
seasonally adjusted basis.
MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are often
dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for
cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series, (See appendix A.)
It is the smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is greater than
that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a
series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1
for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic.
MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of
the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the
same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a
5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5
will show its cyclical movements about as clearly
as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an
MCD of 1.
The charts in this report generally include
centered MCD moving averages for those series
with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally
adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their
variation about the moving averages and to provide
observations for the most recent months.

Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Business cycles have been defined as sequences
of expansion and contraction in various economic
processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment,
income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive,
business cycles of historical experience have been
definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in
duration and intensity, reflecting changes in
economic systems, conditions, policies, and
outside disturbances.
One of the techniques developed in business
cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is
the cyclical indicators approach. This approach
identifies certain economic time series as tending
to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad
movements in aggregate economic activity. Such
indicators have been selected and analyzed by
NBER in a series of studies published between
1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new
comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was
carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research
staff. The present format and content of part I of
BCD are based on the results of that study.
Section A. Composite Indexes and
Their Components

All cyclical indicators have been evaluated according to six major characteristics: Economic
significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of
timing at business cycle peaks and troughs,
c o n f o r m i t y to business e x p a n s i o n s and
contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability
(currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme
was developed and used to assess each series by all
of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and
Reference Turning Dates
November 1975 issues of BCD.) The resulting
scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series
The historical business cycle turning dates used during the period 1947-70. This analysis produced
in this report are those designated by the National a new list of indicators classified by economic
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They process and typical timing at business cycle peaks
mark the approximate dates when, according to and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its relating to section B.)
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
This information, particularly the scores relating
practice, neither new reference turning dates nor to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the
the shading for recessions will be entered on the selection of series to be included in the composite
charts until after both the new reference peak and indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring
the new reference trough bounding the shaded area series from many different economic-process
groups and combine those with similar timing
have been designated.
The historical reference turning dates are subject behavior, using their overall performance scores as
to occasional reviews by NBER and may be changed weights. Because they use series of historically
as a result of revisions in important economic tested usefulness and given timing characteristics
time series. The dates shown in this publication (for example, leading at both peaks and troughs),
for the 1948-70 time period are those determined with diversified economic coverage and a minimum
by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has designated of duplication, composite indexes give more
turning points for recessions in 1973-75, 1980, and reliable signals over time than do any of the
1981-82.
individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the

1

Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks
\.
Economic
\Process
CyclicalV
Timing
\.

LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(61 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT (C)
INDICATORS
(24 series)

IV.
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(19 series)

V.
INVENTORIES
AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(18 series)

VII.
MONEY AND
CREDIT
(28 series)

Orders and d@l:vsne$
(6 series)
Consumption and
trade (2 series)

Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business investment
commitments
(6 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

Inventory
investment
(4 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(1 series)

Stock prices
(1 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (2 series)
Profits and profit
margins (7 series)
Cash flows (2 series)

Money (5 series)
Credit flows
(5 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(2 series)
Interest rates
fl series)

Consumptionr and
trade (4 sr wj$)

Harness investment
* ofn tirents
(1 bfefteU
Business investment
expenditures

1.
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)

II.
PRODUCTION
AND INCOME
(10 series)

III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE, ORDERS,
AND DELIVERIES
(13 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
(3 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)

Capacity utilization
(2 series)

Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)

Comprehensive
output and income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(4 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(19 series)

BuMitess investment
expenditures

Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)

Velocity of money
{2 series)
Interest rates
{2 series)

(h'iMf)

Comprehensive
unemployment
(2 series)

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED (U)
(8 series)

•

(1 StTiPJi)

Consumption and
trade (1 series)

Business investment
s.jm^itments
(1 sews)

Unit labor costs
and tabor share
(4 series)

Interest rates
(4 series)
Outstanding debt
(4 series)

Sensitive commodity
prices (1 series)
Profits and profit
margins (1 series)

Inventories on
hand and on
order
(4 series)

Interest rates
(1 series)

B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs
\.
Economic
N. Process
Cyclical^,
Timing
N.

LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(47 series)

ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT (C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)

LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(41 series)

L
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)

II.
PRODUCTION
AND INCOME
(10 series)

III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE, ORDERS,
AND DELIVERIES
(13 series)

IV.
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(19 series)

V.
INVENTORIES
AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(18 series)

VII.
MONEY AND
CREDIT
(28 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
(1 series)

industrial
production
(1 series)

Orders and diiiveries
(5 series)
Consumption and
trade (4 series)

Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business investment
commitments
(4 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)

Inventory
investment
(4 series)

Stock prices
(1 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (3 series)
Profits and profit
margins (6 series)
Cash flows (2 series)

Money (4 series)
Credit flows
(5 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(4 series)

Comprehensive
output and income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(3 series)
Capacity utilization
(2 series)

Consumption and
trade (3 series)

Business investment
commitments
(1 series)

Profits and profit
margins (2 series)

Money (1 series)
Velocity of money
(1 series)

Orders and deliveries
(1 series)

Business investment
commitments
(2 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(7 series)

Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)

Velocity of money
(1 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Interest rates
(8 series)
Outstanding debt
(4 series)

Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(5 series)

TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED (U)
(1 series)




Inventories on
hand and on
order
(5 series)

Bank reserves
(1 series)

independent measurement error and other "noise"
in the included series are smoothed out in the
index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly
series that are acceptable in terms of relatively
prompt availability and reasonable accuracy.
The main composite indexes are distinguished by
their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of
leading indicators, series which historically reached
their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the
corresponding business cycle turns. There is an
index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting
of series which historically reached their turning
points at about the same time as the general
economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which
includes series that typically reached their peaks
and troughs later than the corresponding business
cycle turns.
The leading index contains series with long as
well as short leads, but each series leads on the
average over time and shows a frequency of leads
at the individual turns exceeding that attributable
to chance, given the historical distribution of
cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to
the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948,
leads were generally more frequent and longer at
peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags
were generally more frequent and longer at troughs
than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and
classifying the indicators takes into account these
w e l l - e s t a b l i s h e d d i f f e r e n c e s in timing.
Consequently, rough coincidences include short
leads (•) and lags (+) as well as exact
coincidences (0), (For monthly series, the range is
from -3 through +1 at peaks and from -1 through
+3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and
plus denotes lags in months.)

indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a
series known to have a useful pattern of early
cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of
the composite indexes show the length, in months,
of leads (-) and lags (+) at each of the reference
turning dates covered.
The next set of data consists of series included
in the principal composite indexes. These are the
12 components of the leading index, the 4
components of the coincident index, and the 6
components of the lagging index. Following the title
of each series, its typical timing is identified by
three letter symbols in a small box. The first of
these letters refers to the timing of the given
indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its
timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to
its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs
combined. "L" denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a
tendency to roughly coincide with the business
cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency
to lag. Since these series have been selected for the
consistency of their timing at both peaks and
troughs, all components of the leading index are
denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident
index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging
index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that
these classifications are based on limited evidence,
namely the performance of the indicators during
the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which
included five peaks and five.troughs. While the
timing classifications are expected to agree with
the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will
not necessarily hold invariably in every instance.
The timing of the series in the period since 1970
can be determined by inspection of the charts,
where the recessions of 1973-75, 1980, and
1981-82 are shaded according to the dates of
the NBER reference cycle chronology.

August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business
cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58,
February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation
distinguishes seven major economic processes and
four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells
identify subgroups of the given economic process
with the given timing characteristic. The number of
series in each such group is given in parentheses
following the title. Complete information on how
individual indicators are classified by timing at
peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected
measures and scores, is provided in the 1984
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change

Many series in this report are aggregates
compiled from numerous components. How the
individual components of an aggregate move over a
given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index
which indicates the percentage of components that
are rising (with half of the unchanged components
considered rising). Cyclical changes in these
diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the
corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes
are highly erratic, they are computed from changes
measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter)
spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans.
Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes
are shown for the component series included in
each of the three composite indexes and for the
components of some of the aggregate series shown
in section B.
Diffusion measures can be derived not only from
actual data but also from surveys of anticipations
For purposes of constructing a composite index,
or intentions. Indexes based on responses of
each component series is standardized: The monthbusiness executives about their plans and
to-month percent changes in a given series are
divided by the long-run average (without regard to Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process expectations for several operating variables are
presented, along with the corresponding indexes
sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile
This section covers 112 individual time series, based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion
series are prevented from dominating the index.
The coincident index is calculated so that its long- including the 22 indicators used in the series.
This section also records rates of change for the
term trend (since 1948) equals the average of the construction of the composite indexes. The peak
trends of its four components. This trend, which is and trough timing classifications are shown on the three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and
similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be charts in the same manner as described above, but lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate
viewed as a linear approximation to the secular this section includes series with different timing at economic activity: GNP in constant dollars
movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the (quarterly), industrial production, employee hours
economic activity. The indexes of leading and lag- timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified in nonagricultural establishments, and personal
ging indicators have been adjusted so that both as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of
their trends and their average month-to-month measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for
percent changes (without regard to sign) are ap- are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at 1-quarter spans.
Although movements in diffusion indexes and in
proximately equal to those of the coincident index. turning points of the given type. Eight series are
(For a more detailed description of the method of unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 19 rates of change for the same aggregates are
constructing the composite indexes, see the 1984 series at all turns (of the 19, 15 have definite but generally positively correlated, these two measures
different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series present information about two related but distinct
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators)
In addition to these principal composite indexes, that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes
measure the prevailing direction or scope of
differentiated according to cyclical timing, there is included in the list of cyclical indicators.
The classification scheme which groups the change, while rates of change measure the degree
are five indexes based on leading indicators which
have been grouped by economic process. Taken indicators of this section by economic process and as well as the overall direction. As is the case for
together, these additional indexes include all 12 cyclical timing is summarized in the two diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates
component series of the overall leading index, plus tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is of change tend to lead those of the corresponding
a few related series. Also shown in this section is based on the observed behavior of the series at five indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead
the ratio of the index of roughly coincident business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53, at the business cycle turns as well.




Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES
This part is divided into six sections which cover
a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series
measuring various aspects of economic activity.
Some of these series are very comprehensive,
pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others
have to do with particular sectors or markets, and
still others relate to U.S. international transactions
or to selected foreign countries. The represented
variables include incomes, outputs, and
expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity;
labor r e s o u r c e s ; g o v e r n m e n t receipts,
expenditures, and defense-related activities; exports and imports; and selected indicators for a few
key foreign countries.
Section A. National Income and Product
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the personal, business,
foreign, and government sectors of the economy.
Section Al shows the gross national product,
final sales, and personal and disposable personal
income. The four major components of the gross
national p r o d u c t — p e r s o n a l c o n s u m p t i o n
expenditures, gross private domestic investment,
government purchases of goods and services, and
net exports of goods and services—are presented in
sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in
section A are presented in current as well as
constant dollars. There are also a few per capita
series. The national income and product accounts,
briefly defined below, are described more fully in
the Survey of Current Business, Part I,
January 1976.
Gross national product (GNP) is the market
value of final goods and services produced by the
labor and property supplied by residents of the
United States, before deduction of allowances for
the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the
most comprehensive measure of aggregate
economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in
business inventories.
Personal income is the income received by
persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated
businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust
funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from
all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary
disbursements, other labor income, proprietors'
income, rental income of persons, dividends,
personal interest income, and transfer payments,
less personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving. It consists
of personal income less personal taxes and nontax
payments to government.
Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is
goods and services purchased by individuals,
operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and
the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings,
and financial services received in kind by individuals. Net purchases of used goods are also included.

4



Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed
capital goods purchased by private business and
nonprofit institutions and the value of the change
in the physical volume of inventories held by
private business. The former include all private
purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for
tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used
goods are also included.
Government purchases of goods and services
(A4) is the compensation of government employees
and purchases from business and from abroad. It
excludes transfer payments, interest paid by
government, and subsidies. It includes gross
investment by government enterprises but excludes
their current outlays. It includes net purchases of
used goods and excludes sales and purchases of
.land and financial assets.
Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports
less imports of goods and services. Exports are part
of the national production; imports are not, but are
included in the components of GNP and are
therefore deducted. More detail on U.S.
international transactions is provided in section E.
National income (A6) is the incomes that
originate in the production of goods and services
attributable to labor and property supplied by
residents of the United States. Thus, it measures
the factor costs of the goods and services produced. It consists of the compensation of
employees, proprietors' income, rental income of
persons, corporate profits, and net interest.
Saving (A7) is the difference between income
and expenditures during an accounting period.
Total gross saving includes personal saving,
business saving (mainly undistributed corporate
profits and capital consumption allowances), and
government surplus or deficit.
Shares of GNP and national income (AS).—The
major e x p e n d i t u r e components of GNP
(consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as
percentages of GNP, and the major income
components of national income (compensation of
employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as
percentages of national income.

Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
The important data on price movements include
the monthly consumer and producer price indexes
and their major components. Based largely on
these series are the quarterly price indexes from
the national income and product accounts, notably
the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights
reflecting the changing proportions of different
expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixedweighted price index for the gross business product. Data on both levels and percent changes are
presented for the period since 1975.
The group of series on-wages and productivity
consists of data on average hourly earnings and
average hourly compensation (including earnings
and other benefits) in current and constant dollars,
output per hour of work in the business sector, and
rates of change for most of these measures.

Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
This section contains measures of the civilian
labor force and its major components: Total
numbers of employed and unemployed persons,
The number of unemployed is subdivided into
selected categories defined by sex, age, and class
of worker. Also included are data on participation
rates for a few principal segments of the labor
force.
Section D, Government Activities
Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surplus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels;
(1) Federal Government and (2) State and local
government. Also shown is a selection of series
from the discontinued Defense Indicators.
These series measure defense activities which
influence short-term changes in the national
economy. Included are series relating to
obligations, contracts, orders, production,
shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment.
These series are grouped according to the time at
which the activities they measure occur in the
defense order-production-delivery process. Series
measuring activities which usually precede production, such as contract awards and new orders,
are classified as "advance measures of defense
activity." Series measuring activities which tend to
coincide with production, such as employment, and
activities which usually follow production, such as
shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final
measures of defense activity."
Section E. U.S. International Transactions
This group includes monthly series on exports
(excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a
few selected components of these aggregates. Also
shown are the balances between receipts and
expenditures for goods and services, merchandise,
and investment income.
Section F. International Comparisons
This section is designed to facilitate a quick
review of basic economic conditions in six of the
nations with which we have important trade
relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial
production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corresponding U.S. series. Also included is an industrial production index for the European
countries in the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD). The industrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the
economies covered. Changes in consumer price indexes (plotted for the period since 1975) provide
important measures of the rates of inflation in the
major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also
shown beginning in 1975) tend to be significant as
leading indicators.

HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded
area) as designated by NBER.

Basic Data

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
plotted. ("9" = September)

Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Data may be actual
monthly figures or moving
averages.)

Dotted line indicates anticipated data.

Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where
a moving average is plotted.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are plotted. ("IV" = fourth
quarter)

Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data.
Parallel lines indicates a break
in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.).

Diffusion Indexes

Solid line indicates monthly
data over 6- or 9-month
spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans,

Various scales are used to
highlight the patterns of the
individual series. "Scale A"
is an arithmetic scale, "scale
L-1" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles
in that distance, etc.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
used in computing the indexes.

Broken line with plotting
points indicates quarterly
data over 1-quarter spans.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are used in computing the indexes.

Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over
various spans.
Diffusion indexes and rates
of change are centered within
the spans they cover.

Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER.

Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over
various spans.

Rates of Change

Solid line indicates percent
changes over 3- or 6-month
spans,

Arabic number indicates latest
month used in computing
the changes,

Broken line indicates percent
changes over 1-month spans.

Broken line with plotting
points indicates
percent
changes over 1-quarter spans,

Solid line with plotting points
indicates percent changes over
3-or4-quarter spans.

Roman number indicates
latest quarter used in computing the changes.

HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at
the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically
according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the
series titles, or


2, See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of
the report where series are listed numerically according to
series numbers within each of the report's sections.

Table 1.

Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data2
Unit
of
measure

Series title and timing classification1

Percent change

Annual average
1984

1985

1986

2dQ
1986

3dQ
1986

Sept.
1986

Oct.
1986

Nov.
1986

Sept.
to
Oct.
1986

Get.
to
Nov.
1986

IstQ
to
2dQ
1986

Ji
e
2dQ
to
3dQ
1986

E
$

•c

t. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Al. Composite Indexes
910.
920.
930
940.

Twelve leading indicators
Four roughly coincident indicators
Six lagging indicators
Ratio, coincident index to lagging index

165,7
154.5
117.3
131.8

169.1
160.3
127 .0
126.3

174.8
163.1
132.3
123.3

178.0
164.5
132.0
124.6

179.3
164.7
131 ,9
124.9

179.5
165.4
131,5
125.8

180.4
164.8
133.5
123.4

182.5
165.5
133.2
124.2

0.5
-0.4
1.5
-1.9

1 .2
0.4
-0,2
0,6

1.8
0.9
-0.2
1.1

0.7
0.1
-0.1
0.2

910
920
930
940

do .
do
do
do

110.3
105.3
110.8
- 136.4

110.3
102.0
115.2
138.8

110.1
103.3
118.7
140.9

110.3
103.1
120,0
142.0

109.9
102.5
NA
146.0

109.7
102.4
NA
146.3

,109.0
102.5
NA
147.8

109,5
103.6
NA
147 .4

-0,6
0.1
NA
1.0

0.5
1.1
NA
-0.3

0.2
-0.2
l.l
0.8

-0.4
-0.6
NA
2.8

914
915
916
917

L.L.L.. Hours
do
LCL
L,C,L... Thousands

40.7
3.4
366

40,5
3.3
383

40.7
3.4
384

40.7
3.4
377

40.7
3.5
373

40.8
3.5
369

40.7
3.5
343

40.9
3.5
342

-0.2
0.
7.0

0.5
0.
0.3

0.
0.
1.8

0.
0.1
1.1

1
21
5

0.458
131

0.497
139

0.509
141

0.471
134

0.496
136

0.482
135

0.509
141

0.524
146

0.027
4.4

0.015 -0.038
-5.0
3.5

0.025
1.5

60
46

1 7 7 . 3 5 182 .30 1 8 5 . 4 4 1 8 5 . 6 8 1 8 6 . 5 0 1 8 6 . 9 5 1 8 7 . 5 0 1 8 8 . 7 6
1 0 1 . 6 8 1 0 3 . 9 7 1 0 5 . 5 4 1 0 6 . 0 4 1 0 6 . 8 8 106 .77 1 0 7 . 0 9 107 .15
99.40
9 9 . 8 5 100.32 100.56 100.82 101.07
94.46
97 .69
2 4 , 7 3 0 25>054 25,028 24,952 2 4 , 8 7 2 24,858 2 4 , 8 7 2 24,912

0.3
0.3
0.3
0.1

L,L,L... 1967 = 100
do
C,C,C....
do
Lg Lg Lg
do
L,L,L...

Leading Indicator Subgroups;
914 Capital investment commitments
915. Inventory investment and purchasing
916 Profitability
917. Money and financial flows

L LL
L,L,L...
1,1,1...
L.L.L..

B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
Bl. Employment and Unemployment
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
*1. Average weekly hours, mfg
21 Average weekly overtime hours mfg 3
*5. Average weekly initial claims (inverted')
Job Vacancies:
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment1
46. Help-wanted advertising in newspapers

L,Lg,U.... Ratio
L,Lg,U... 1967 = 100

Comprehensive Employment:
48, Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
*41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
40 Employees in goods-producing industries
90. Ratio, civilian employment to population
of working age3
Comprehensive Unemployment:
37. Number of persons unemployed (inverted1)
43 Unemployment rate (inverted')3 ....
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate (inv. 4 ) 3
*91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted')
44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.4)3

U.C.C.... A.r., bil. hrs
U.C.C.... Millions
do
C.C.C....
L C D Thousands
U,Lg,U..,. Percent
LLgU
LLgU
L,Lg,U....
Lg,lg,Lg,,..
Lg,Lg,Lg....

Thousands
Percent
do
Weeks
Percent

0.7
0.1
0.2
0.2

0.1
0.5
0.5
-0.3

0.4
0.8
0.5
-0.3

48
42
41
40

0.02

0.09

0.24

90

58.79

59.38

59.74

59,83

60.07

59.96

60.09

60.11

8,539
7,5
2.8
18.2
2.4

8,312
7.2
2.8
15,6
2,0

8,259
7.1
2.8
14.9
1.9

8,446
7.2
2.8
14.6
1.9

8,182
6.9
2.8
15.5
1.9

8,329
7.0
2.8
15.6
2.0

8,242
7.0
2.7
15.2
1.8

8,283
7.0
2.7
14.8
1.9

1 .0
0.
0.1
2.6
0.2

-0,5
0.
0.
2.6
-0,1

-2.3
-0.1
0.
2.0
0.

3,1
0.3
0.
-6.2
0.

37
43
45
91
44

3489.9 3585.2 3 6 5 5 . 9 3661.4 3686.4
2 8 7 7 , 1 2962.8 3018.2 3071.7 3058.5 3053.0 3058.5 3065.1

0.2

0,2

0.2
1.8

0.7
-0.4

50
52

2 4 5 5 . 6 2 5 2 7 . 4 2 5 7 4 . 4 2621.9 f605.2 2601.6

0.13

82. Production and Income
Comprehensive Output and Income:
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars
52, Personal income in 1982 dollars
*5L Personal income less transfer payments
in 1982 dollars
53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, mfg.,
and construction

C,C,C.... A.r., bil.dol
do
C.C.C....
C.C.C....

do

C.C.C....

do

Industrial Production;
*47 Industrial production
73. Industrial production, durable mfrs
74, Industrial production, nondurable mfrs
49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars

CCC 1977 = 100
C,C,C....
do
do
C,L,L...
C.C.C..,. A.r, bil.dol

Capacity Utilization:
82. Capacity utilization rate, mfg3
84. Capacity utilization rate, materials3

L,C,U..,. Percent
L,C,U....
do

529.2

538.0

123.8
121,4
124,2
127.3
122.3
125.1
1533.2
1503.1

80.5
82.0

80.1
60.2

2606.3

2612.2

0.2

0.2

1.8

-0.6

51

539.8

539.0

544.4

541.6

1.0

-0.5

0.2

-0.5

53

125,0
125.0
124.4
128.3
127 .1
127 .6
130.2
131.8
128.6
1563.6 1562.8 1568.0

125.1
128.0
131.6

125.2
127.9
132,0

125.9
128.6
133,1

0.1
-0.1
0.3

0.6
0.5
0.8

-0.5
-0.9
1.2
-0.1

0.5
0.4
1 .2
0.3

47
73
74
49

79.7
78.1

79.6
78.0

79.5
77.8

79.9
78.2

-0.1
-0.2

0.4
0.4

-0.5
-1.1

0.2
-0.2

82
84

-4.7
-5.1

5.9
5.8

-3.5
-3.9

3.1
2.7

6
7

-1.0
-6.57
-1.1
2

-1.5
6.05
0.6
2

-1.8
-4,08
-1.6
4

0.8
3.11
1,0
0

8
25
96
32

435.34
NA
423.74
NA
124.7
125.6
121 . 6 2 1 2 2 . 2 5
113.03 113.20

-1.6
-2.1
0.
-5.2
-5.0

NA
NA
0.7
0.5
0.2

1.8
2,0
0.5
4.0
3.1
21.6
-2.1

56
57
75
54
59
55
58

12
13

541 .4

80.0
79.4

542.5

79.5
78.3

B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Orders and Deliveries:
6. Mfrs.' new orders, durable goods
L,L,L.... Bil. dol
1 0 0 , 5 6 104.30 106.80 103.03 106.26 1 0 8 . 7 2 1 0 3 . 5 7 109.68
do
7. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods
L,L,L....
97.93
95,73
9 5 . 6 3 101.18
99.98
96.05
9 8 . 6 9 100.76
*8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods
do
and materials
. L LL
82.28
87 .02
86.12
84.60
85.44
86.07
88.32
87.41
25. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods3
L,L,L...
do
2.11
1.21
0.63
2.18
-3.87
2.70
-1.90
2.18
1
96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods
L,Lg,U.... Bil. dol., EOF ... 3 4 5 . 4 4 3 5 3 . 0 4 3 5 9 . 5 9 3 5 3 . 8 7 3 5 7 . 5 0 3 5 7 . 5 0 3 5 3 . 6 2 3 5 5 . 8 0
*32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries3 (u)
L,L,L... Percent
61
45
52
52
52
48
54
56
Consumption and Trade:
56. Manufacturing and trade sales
*57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars
75. Industrial production, consumer goods
54. Sales of retail stores
59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles
58. Index of consumer sentiment ©

C.C.C....
C,C,C....
C,L,C....
CLU
U.L.U....
L,C,C....
LL L

Bil. dol
do
1977 = 100
Bil dol
do
A.r., bil. dol
Q 1966=100

411.30 424.08 4 2 6 , 3 5
394.61 406.29 411.54
120.2
118.0
123.0
107 .76 1 1 4 . 5 0 1 1 7 . 0 8
1 0 2 . 5 4 1 0 6 . 9 4 ioa,9i
115.3
111.1
105.7
93.2
97.5
95.5

425.18
416.32
124.4
118.45
111.50
115.2
96.8

433.00
424.75
125.0
123.22
115.00
140 .1
94.8

442.21
432.90
124.7
128.33
119.04
91.9

95.6

91.4

4.0

-4.4

-0.3
1.2
1.1
1.2
2.4
3.7
1.4

120.7
120.9
56,915 57,310

120.1
NA

119.7
NA

-0.7
NA

-0.3
NA

0.2
-1.7

-0.1
-2.1

B4. Fixed Capital Investment
Formation of Business Enterprises:
"12, Net business formation
13. New business incorporations
Business Investment Commitments:
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
*20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1982 dollars
24. Mfrs/ new orders, nondefense capital goods
27. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense
capital goods




L,L,L... 1967-100
L,L,L... lumber

121.2
121,3
120.5
120.8
5 2 , 9 2 2 55,818 59,165 58,147

L,l,L.,.. Bil, dol

31.32

32.06

30,17

30.38

31.44

32.46

31.39

33.21

-3.3

5.8

0.7

3,5

10

ILL
L,L,L...

do
do

31.78
26,95

32.68
27,19

30.91
26.49

31.51
26.25

33.14
27.31

33.60
28.22

32.30
26.91

34.59
28.78

-3.9
-4.6

7.1
6.9

1.9
-0.9

5,2
4.0

20
24

L.L.L....

do

27.66

28.26

27.61

27.84

29.49

29.86

28.35

30.69

-5.1

8.3

0.8

5.9

27

Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data1

Series title and timing classification'

1

Percent change

Annual average

of

1984

1985

IstQ
1986

2dQ
1986

3dQ
1986

Sept.
1986

Oct.
1986

Sept.
to
Oct.
1986

Nov.
1986

Oct.
to
Nov.
1986

IstQ
to
2dQ
1986

2tfQ
to
3dQ
1986

Series number

1

Table 1.

1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B4. Fixed Capital Investment— Con.
Business Investment Commitments—Con.:
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and
industrial buildings, floor space
L,C,U.... Mil. sq.ft
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, mfg
U,Lg,U.... Bil. dol

78.07
29.36
94.37

Bil. dol., EOP ...

Business Investment Expenditures:
61. Expenditures for new plant and equipment
C,Lg,Lg.... A.r.F bil. dol
69. Mfrs.' machinery and equipment sales and business
do
construction expenditures
C,Lg,Lg....
76 Industrial production business equipment
. . C,Lg,U.... 1977 = 100
86. Nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars
C,Lg,C.... A.r., bil.dol
Residential Construction Commitments and Investment:
28. New private housing units started
*29. Building permits, new private housing units
89 Residential fixed investment in 1982 dollars

86.42
27 .22
94.58

73.01
23.39
92.22

78.95
18.77
86.37

77 .67
NA
NA

71 .77

85.41

-11 .2

-1.6
NA
NA

9
11
97

-0.5

80.82

-0.4

61

NA
0.5

0,4
-1.6
-0.2

0.6
0.9
-0.5

69
76
86

-4.5
-0.7
3,4

-8.4
-7.9
2.3

28
29
89

19,0

354.44 387.13 377.94 375.92 374.55
2,1
0.

8.1
-19.8
-6.3

3 7 5 . 0 2 401.80 3 9 5 . 2 0 3 9 6 . 6 6 398.86 3 9 6 . 5 6 404.90
139.4
139.4
134.2
137.7
138.9
139.6
139.9
456 .8
454.4
422.2
461.4
457.8

L,L,L... A.r., thousands ..
L,L,L... 1967 = 100
A r bil dol
L LL

NA
140.1

1,628
124.8

1,598
128.6

-2.2
-2.3

-1.8
3 .0

-24.8

-15,4

30

-6.59 -15.64
39.2
-24.9

NA
NA

-9.05
64.1

NA
NA

-7.05
-17.2

-20.30
-6 .3

36
31

-0 . 82

NA

-2.89

NA

-1.35

1.75

38

-0,1
-0.4
-1.4

71
70
65

-0.03

77

1 ,750
134.8
170.6

1,742
138.1
177.2

1,998
146.3
186.3

1,908
145.3
192.7

1,747
133 .8
197 .2

1,664
127 .8

B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
Inventory Investment:
. 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars3
*36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on
order in 1982 dollars (smoothed 6 ) 3
31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories, book value3
38, Change in mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies
on hand and on order, book value3
Inventories on Hand and on Order:
71. Mfg. and trade inventories, book values
70 Mfg and trade inventories in 1982 dollars5
65. Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods, book value5
*77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in
1982 dollars3
78. Mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order, book value5

L,L,L....

do

59.2

9.0

39.9

15.1

-0.3

L,L,L...
L,L,L...

do
do

49.21
53.2

2.99
9.7

20.00
20.1

12,95
2.9

-7.35
»3.4

0.02

-1 .33

0.42

0..71

L,L,L... Bil.dol

-0.31

2.07

Lg.Lg.Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ... 5 7 3 . 4 3 5 8 3 . 1 5 5 8 8 . 1 8 5 8 8 . 9 1 5 8 8 . 0 7 5 8 8 . 0 7 5 9 1 . 3 3
630 . 8 9 6 3 8 , 4 3 6 4 5 . 8 7 6 4 6 . 2 8 6 4 3 . 4 8 6 4 3 . 4 8 6 4 3 . 7 6
do
Lg Lg Lg
85.52
85.45
85.52
87 .62
86 .71
88.37
89.69
do
Lg,Lg,Lg....

NA
NA
NA

0,6
0.
-0.1

NA
NA
NA

1.55

Lg,Lg,Lg,... Ratio

L,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol, EOP ... 2 1 7 . 3 0

0.1
0.1
-1.0

-0.01

1.52

NA

0 .03

NA

2 1 4 . 2 4 2 1 4 . 3 1 210 .31 2 1 1 . 5 7 211.57

210.76

NA

-0.4

NA

-1 .9

-0.14
1.50
2 2 0 . 3 . 221 .2
-0.52
-0.09

1.72
235.5
0.13

1 .05
243 .7
1 .23

0.22
6.5
0.65

-0.67
3.5
1.10

0.87
-3.9
0.06

1.56

1.56

1 .55.

1 .52

1.49

0.6

78

B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
98. Change in producer prices, sensitive materials3
23. Spot market prices, raw industrial materials©
*99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed6)3

L,L,L... Percent
U,L,L... 1967 = 100
L,L,L... Percent

Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks ©

L,L,L... 1941-43 = 10... 1 6 0 . 4 6

Profits and Profit Margins:
1C rnrnnrato nrnfiU after tav
18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars
79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj
80
do
in 1982 dollars
15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, mfg1. . . .
26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business

I II
A.r., bil. dol.
do
L,L,L .
L.C.L... ... .do... .
... .do. . .
L CL
Cents
L.L.L
L,L,L. 1977 = 100..

140.3
135.3
169.3
164.7
4.6
99.0

131.4
123.1
188.9
181 .0
3.8
98.8

126.9
116.5
200.7
190 .1
3.6
99.0

128.8
118.3
194.2
183.6
4.3
98.8

Cash Flows:
34. Corporate net cash flow
35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars

L,L,L... A.r., bil. dol
!do
L,L,L...

350.4
350.7

376.0
374.9

374.3
374.2

159.7

164.8

167 .0

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share:
63. Unit labor cost, business sector
Lg,Lg,Lg.... 1977 = 100
68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product,
nonfinancial corporations
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Dollars
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.
a) Actual data
Lg,Lg,Lg.... 1977 = 100
*b) Actual data as percent of trend3
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Percent
64. Compensation of employees as percent of
do
national income'
lg,Lg,Lg....

-0.37
278.9
-0.19

,

-0.22
244.8
-0.42

-0,20
231 .1
-0.25

0.67
222.1
-0.19

-0,81
-0.8
0.10

98
23
99

9.4

0,2

19

135.9
124.3
197.6
185.3
3 .4
99.1

1.5
1.5
-3.2
-3.4
0.7
-0.2

5.5
5.1
1.8
0.9
-0.9
0.3

16
18
79
80
15
26

374.9
374.1

384.3
383.8

0.2
0.

2.5
2.6

34
35

168.0

169.1

0.6

0.7

63

0.4

0.4

68

1 8 6 . 8 4 2 1 9 . 9 6 2 4 0 . 5 8 241 .15 2 3 8 , 2 7

0 .690

0.708

0.721

0 .724

138.0
85.4

139.0
83.1

138.7
81 .8

138.0
80,2

73.0

73.5

73.7

73.5

-0.4

3.3

0.727

135.3
88.6

237.36 245.09

73.8

138.1
79.9

140.0
80.6

138.3
79.2

1.4
0.7

-1.2
-1 .4

-0.2
-1.3

-0.5
-1.6

62
62

-0.2

0.3

64

0.83
0.67
0.18
4.4
3.0

-0,16
-0.13
0.06
3.7
2.1

85
102
104
105
106

- 0 . 2 0 9 -0.169
-0.003 -0.015 -0.030

107
108

B7. Money and Credit
Money:
85. Change in money supply Ml3
102. Change in money supply M23
104. Change in total liquid assets3
105 Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars
*106 Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars
Velocity of Money:
107. Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml3
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M23
Credit
33.
112
113.
*111

Flows:
Net change in mortgage debt3
Net change in business loans3
Net change in consumer installment credit3
Change in business and consumer credit outstanding3

do
L,L,L...
do
L,C,U....
do
L,L,L...
L,L,L... Bil.dol
do
L,L,L...
C,C,C... Ratio
do
C,Lg,C...
L,L,L... A.r., bil.dol
„ do
L LL
do
L.L.L..
L,L,L... A.r., percent

A.r., bil. dol
Credit Difficulties:
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inverted')3 »




L,L,L... Percent, EOP ...

0.96
0.48
0.65
0.69
0.92
0.70
506.0
532.9
2116.6 2 2 2 9 . 7

6.914
1.365

6.736
1.334

1 .46
1.30
0.63
0.87
1 .00
0.33
0.72
0.48
0.66
603,6
582.3
557.8
2276.4 2345.7 2395.9

6.563
1.331

6.354
1.316

6.185
1.286'

1.17
1.74
0.80
0.55
0.88
0.61
NA
0.72
0.56
614.7
623.7
608.5
2406 .1 2 4 2 3 . 7 2 4 3 0 , 4

1.280

NA
NA
NA
25.93
100.11 7 7 . 6 4
14.34 -12.18
-8.02
-16.48
22.76
53.11
66.73
92.69
63.36
66.85
81 .52
77.34
6.2
4.8
6.6
4.9
10.4
15.8
5 6 3 . 6 0 647 . 3 4 4 6 5 . 5 8 5 7 1 . 3 0 6 3 4 . 6 9

2.09

2.32

2.41

2.53

2.24

2,24

0.37
0.27
-0.16
1.0
0,7

-0.007

1.273

1.270

NA
32.33
81.40
9.4

NA
NA
44.51
31 .27
NA - 1 1 . 2 9
4.6
6.3

NA

NA

NA

0.57
-0.33
NA
1.5
0.3

NA
-1 .06
NA
-3.1

NA

NA
-8.46
3.49
-1,7
22.7

-0.12

NA
30.82
-0.12
1.3
11.1

0.29

33
112
113

in
110

39

Table 1.

Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data*
Unit
of
measure

Series title and timing classification 1

1984

1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B7. Money and Credit-Con.
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted 4 ) 3 ®
94, Borrowings from the Federal Reserve3 ©
Interest Rates;
119. Federal funds rate3 0
114. Discount rate on new Treasury bills3© 3
116. Yield on new high-grade corporate bonds ®
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds3®
117. Yield on municipal bonds' ®
118. Secondary market yields, FHA mortgages3 ®
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans3®
*109. Average prime rate charged by banks3®
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment credit outstanding5
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
*101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in
1982 dollars
*95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to
personal income3

Percent change

Annual average
1985

1986

2dQ
1986

3dQ
1986

Sept.
1986

Oct.
1986

Sept.
to
Oct.
1986

Nov.
1986

Oct.
to
Nov.
1986

IstQ
to
2dQ
1986

ji
1
1
%

2dQ
to
3dQ
1986

L,U,U... Mil. dol
do
L,Lg,U...

-3,046
3,730

-492
1,321

230
805

-1
857

-82
874

-282
1,008

-95
841

236
752

-187
-167

-331
-89

231
52

81
17

93
94

l,lg,Lg... Percent
do
C,Lg,Lg...
do
Lg,lg,Lg.,.
do
C,lg,lg...
do
U,Lg,Lg...
do
Lg,lg,Lg...
do
lg,Lg,Lg...
do
Lg,Lg,Lg...

10.22
9.57
13.37
11.99
10,10
13.82
12,02
12,04

8.10
7 ,49
11 .75
10,75
9.10
12.24
9.74
9.93

7.83
6.89
9.68
8.90
7.53
10.38
9.29
9.37

6.92
6.13
9.06
7.95
7.54
9.95
8.13
8.61

6.21
5.53
9.14
7.89
7.28
9.90
7.73
7.85

5.89
5.19
9.28
8.08
7.11
9.90

5.85
5.18
9.29
8.04
7.08
9.80

6.04
5.35
8.99
7.81
6.85
9.26

-0.04
-0.01
0.01
-0.04
-0.03
-0.10

0.19
0.17
-0.30
-0.23
-0.23
-0.54

7.50

7.50

7.50

0.

-0.91
-0.76
-0.62
-0.95
0.01
-0.43
-1.16
-0.76

-0.71
-0.60
0.08
-0.06
-0.26
-0.05
-0.40
-0,76

119
114
116
115
117
118
67
109

3.0
-1.8

2.9
0.5

66
72

NA
Lg,Lg,Lg... BiL dol, EOP ... 4 5 3 . 5 8 5 3 5 . 1 0 5 5 0 . 9 4 5 6 7 . 6 5 5 8 4 . 3 3 5 8 4 . 3 3 591 . 1 2
2 9 9 . 6 6 3 3 1 . 6 5 3 4 4 . 3 0 3 3 8 . 2 3 3 4 0 . 0 2 3 4 0 . 7 0 343 .40 3 4 6 . 0 0
Lg,LgtLg.., Bil.dol

Lg,lg,Lg...

do

Lg,lg,Lg... Percent

289.04 321.52 338.44 3 3 8 , 7 9 342.07 342.42 344.43 346.70

0.

1.2
0.8

NA
0.8

0,6

0.7

1.0

101

0.13

NA

0.19

0.39

95

0 .9
0.7
0.1
1.9
-0.5
-1.1
0.9
-0,6
0.4
-0.1

310
320
320
322
330
335
331
332
333
334

0.1

13.45

15.02

15.94

16,13

16.52

16.66

16.79

NA

107 .9
311.1
0.3
302.9
310.3
322.6
331.0
320.0
294.1
290 .4

111,5
322.2
0.3
309.8
308.8
323.9
306.2
318.7
300.5
291.9

113.5
327.3
-0.2
314.6
304.5
318.9
289,9
314.1
303.8
288.7

114.0
326.5
0.1
316.0
298.8
311.7
274.0
306.5
305.6
283.2

115.0
328.9
0.2
322.0
297.4
308.3
276.4
304.7
306.9
282.8

330.2
0.3
323 . 9
297.7
308,8
277 .3
305.8
307.7
284.1

330.5
0.2
325.0
298.3
309.3
281 ,8
304.9
309.2
285.0

330.8
0.3
326,7
298.7
309.8
281 .9
305.4
310.1
285.4

0.1
-0.1
0.3
0,2
0.2
1 .6
-0.3
0.5
0.3

0.1
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.
0.2
0.3
0.1

0 .4
-0.2
0.3
0.4
-1.9
-2.3
5 5
-2.4
0.6
-1.9

160.7

165.5

168.0

168.8

169.3

169.6

170.0

170.7

0.2

0,4

0.5

0.3

340

94.6
167.4
97.6
105.3
104.3

94.1
173.9
98.0
106.4
104.8

94.3
177.6
98.4
107 ,3
105.6

95.3
178.5
99.3
107.4
105.7

95.1
179.6
99.3
107.4
105.8

95.0

95.1

95.2

0.1

0.1

1.1
0 .5
0 .9
0.1
0.1

-0.2
0.6
0.
0.
0.1

341
345
346
370
358

1 1 3 . 5 4 1 1 5 . 4 6 1 1 7 , 0 3 117 ,67 118.16 1 1 8 . 2 2 1 1 8 . 4 8 1 1 8 . 6 5
105.00 1 0 7 . 1 5 108.77 1 0 9 . 2 2 1 0 9 . 9 8 1 0 9 . 8 9 1 1 0 . 2 4 1 1 0 . 3 7
8 , 5 3 9 8,312
8 , 2 5 9 8,446 8,182 8 , 3 2 9 8,242 8,283
3,932 3,715 3 , 7 0 5 3,796 3,750 3,798 3,831 3,839
3,107
3,129
3 , 0 9 4 3 , 1 0 9 3,010
3,042
2,999
2,979
1,499
1,468
1,460
1,542
1,422
1,488
1,411
1,464
7,057 6,793 6,758 6,859 6,651 6,785 6,695 6,699

0.2
0.3
-1.0
0.9
-1.4
-5.2
-1 .3

0.1
0.1
0.5
0.2
-0.7
3.8
0.1

0.5
0.4
2,3
2,5
0.5
5.6
1.5

0.4
0.7
-3.1
-1.2
-3.2
-7 .8
-3.0

441
442
37
444
445
446
447

0.
0.1
0.4

0.3
0.
-0.7

-0.2
0.4
0.8

-0.2
0.4
-0.7

451
452
453

-37.2
0.9
4.4
-11.0
0.5
2.6

34.8
2.4
-1.5
5.1
2.9
2.3

500
501
502
510
511
512

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
Bl. Price Movements
310
320.
320c.
322.
330
335
331.
332.
333
334

Implicit price deflator for gross national product
1982 = 100
Consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) ®... 1967 = 100
Change in CPI-U (S/A) 3
Percent
Consumer price index for all urban consumers, food
1967 = 100
Producer price index (PPI) all commodities ®
do
PPI industrial commodities ®
do
do
PPI crude materials for further processing
do
PPI, intermediate materials, supplies, and components
PPI capital equipment
do
PPI finished consumer goods
do
B2. Wages and Productivity

340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls
341. Real average hourly earnings of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls
3dfi & l a °ur V comPens3 !6nr rion arm usiness sec or
370 Output per hour business sector
358 Output per hour nonfarm business sector

1977 = 100

do
do
do
do
do

C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment
441.
442.
37,
444.
445.
446.
447.

Civilian labor force
Civilian employment
Number of persons unemployed
Number unemployed, males 20 years and over
Number unemployed females 20 years and over
Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age
Number unemployed, full-time workers

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates:
451. Males 20 years and over 3 3
452, Females 20 years and over
453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age3

Millions
do
Thousands
do
do
do'
do
Percent
do
do

78.3
53.7
53.9

78.1
54.7
54.5

78.3
55.0
54.5

78.1
55.4
55.3

77.9
55.8
54.6

77.9
55.7
54.9

77.9
55.8
55.3

78.2
55.8
54.6

D, Government Activities
Dl. Receipts and Expenditures
500.
501.
502,
510.
511.
512.

Federal Government surplus or deficit3
Federal Government receipts. .
Federal Government expenditures . . . .
State and local government surplus or deficit3
State and local government receipts
State and local government expenditures

517.
525.
548.
557.
570.
564,

Defense Department gross obligations incurred
Defense Department prime contract awards
Mfrs.1 new orders, defense products
Industrial production, defense and space equipment
Employment, defense products industries
Federal Government purchases for national defense

A r bil dol
... do
do
do
do
.. ..do.

- 1 7 0 . 0 - 1 9 8 . 0 - 1 9 5 . 0 - 2 3 2 . 2 -197 .4
7 2 6 . 5 786 .8 8 0 6 . 6 8 1 3 . 5 8 3 3 . 1
896 .5 9 8 4 . 9 1001 .5 1 0 4 5 . 7 1 0 3 0 , 5
68,5
61 .7
69.9
64.0
58.9
5 4 0 . 8 5 7 7 . 5 6 0 8 . 3 611 .5 6 2 9 . 1
472.4 515.8 538.5 552.6 565,1

Mil. dol
do
do
1977 = 100
Thousands
A.r., bil. do^

2 2 , 4 3 7 26 , 8 8 3 2 9 , 4 6 9 3 0 , 7 7 6
NA
NA
1 2 , 9 4 2 12,240 1 2 , 3 7 0 11,732 14,164 13,413
7,452 8,022 9,332 7,394 9,109
8,838
156.4
170.6
177 .1 1 7 8 . 1
180.8
182.0
1 ,438 1,544
1,589
1,589
1,608
1,608
235.0 259.4 266.4 278.4 286.8

Mil. dol
do
do
do
do
do

1 8 , 1 3 7 17 772 1 7 , 8 8 4 1 8 , 1 5 4 1 7 , 6 0 9 1 7 , 5 1 8 1 9 , 3 3 0
3 , 1 4 6 2 426 2 , 2 4 6
1,941
2,111
2,135
2,447
3 , 8 7 5 3 917 3 , 9 6 3 3 , 7 3 6 3 , 8 2 9 3 , 8 1 2
3,932
2 7 , 1 3 3 28 838 3 0 , 9 5 7 3 0 , 2 6 6 3 0 , 7 6 4 2 8 , 6 9 5 3 0 , 0 1 8
4 , 6 8 9 4 180 4 , 2 7 0 2 , 5 1 1 2 , 3 8 1
2,435
2,155
3 . 7 8 7 4 6 8 8 •i . 147 5 2 1 1 s ftin L on Q •> 7 on

D2. Defense Indicators
NA
NA
NA
NA
5,001 10,540
183.6
184.4
1,610
NA

NA
NA
-43.4
0.9
0.1

NA
NA
110.8
0,4
NA

4.4
-5.2
-20.8
0.6
0.
4.5

NA
20.7
23.2
1 .5
1.2
3.0

517
525
548
557
570
564

10.3
15.9
3.1
4.6
-11.5

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

1 .5
-13.6
-5.7
-2.2
-41 .2
i t

-3.0
10.0
2.5
1 .6
-5.2

602
604
606
612
614

1 1

At A

E. U.S. International Transactions
El. Merchandise Trade
602.
604.
606.
612.
614.
616.

Exports, excluding military aid shipments
Exports of domestic agricultural products
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
General imports
Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
Imports of automobiles and parts




NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

1 7

Q

MA

5

Table 1.

Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data2
Series title

P ercent chang

flnnual averag

of

1984

1983

1985

1985

3dQ
1985

IstQ
1985

2d Q
1986

1986

4th Q
to

3dQ
1986

IstQ
1986

IstQ
to
2dQ
1986

._
E

2dQ
to
3dQ
1986

Jj

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Con.
E2. Goods and Services Movements Except
Transfers Under Military Grants
667.
668.
669.
622.
618.
620.
651.
652.

Balance on goods and services3
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade3
.,
,..,
.
Merchandise exports, adjusted .
Merchandise imports, adjusted
Income on U.S. investment abroad .
Income on foreign investment in the United States

- 2 3 . 5 8 - 2 5 . 6 7 - 2 5 . 9 6 - 2 4 . 4 5 - 2 9 . 4 5 -31 ,02 - 3 0 . 3 3 - 3 2 . 1 0
92.06
92.53
83.32
90.03
89.62
89.35
90.23
90.87
91 .59
9 2 . 6 0 113.60 115,30 115.31 114.69 1 2 0 . 3 2 122.61 1 2 2 , 3 9 124.63
- 1 6 . 7 7 -28.13 -31,11 - 3 0 . 3 7 - 3 1 . 6 8 - 3 7 . 3 5 -36.46 - 3 5 . 6 7 -37 .67
53.61
52.50
53.66
55.15
55.32
50.46
54.98
53.88
52.73
84.72
84.17
90.12
67 . 2 2
83 .10
84.24
90 .82
92 . 9 9
90 . 0 8
24.22
21.56
24.50
24.51
22.64 22.48
19.31
22.50
22.25
13.10

16.87

16.20

16,80

16.24

15.25

A.r., bil. dol
do
A.r., dollars
A r bil dol
do
do
A.r., dollars

3405.7
3279.1
13,963
3285.5
2428.1
2331.9
9,930

3765.0
3489.9
14,721
3430.7
2670.6
2470.6
10,421

3998.1
3585.2
14,981
3576.2
2828.0
2528.0
10,563

3965.0
3567.6
14,928
3550.2
2842.3
2550.8
10,674

4030.5
3603.8
15,041
3603.1
2832.0
2524.7
10,537

4087.7
3622.3
15,080
3627 .5
2882 .2
2540,7

A.r., bil. dol
do
do
do
do.. ..
. ...do...
do
do

. .

Bil. dol .
.do.
..do.
.do. .
.do.
.do.
..do.
.do.

2234.5 2428.2 2600.5 2576.0
2 1 4 6 , 0 2 2 4 6 . 3 2 3 2 4 . 5 2311 .9
359.3 354.0
331 .2
289.1
338.8
283.1
318.9
343.9
902.3
816.7
870.1
905.1
828.6
841.6
841.3
800 .2
1 1 2 8 . 7 1227 ,0 1 3 3 6 . 1 1 3 1 9 . 7
1 0 6 2 . 7 1 0 9 8 . 7 1 1 3 9 . 0 1131 .8

-9.28

17 .70

17.31

16,97

-1 .57
0.8
1.9
0.89
1.8
0.
-1.2
16.1

0.69
0.5
-0.2
0.79
2.8
0.8
-6.5
-2.2

-1 .77
0.5
1 .8
-2.00
0.3
2.4
-0.7
-2,0

667
668
669
622
618
620
651
652

1 .5
0 .9
0.7
-0.3
1 .8
1.6
1,4

0,6
0.2
-0.1
0.8
1 .5
1.7
1.5

1 .6
0.7
0 .4
1 .1
0.
-0.8
-1.0

200
50
217
213
224
225
227

1.1
0.9
-0.3
-0.5
0.8
1.6
1.7
0,8

1 .3
1.5
3.6
3.4
-0.1
1.9
1 .6
0.6

2.5
1.6
10,9
9.7
0.5
-0.2
1,6
0.6

230
231
232
233
236
238
237
239

5.8
4,7
-1 .2
-2 .2
46 . 9
45.1

-3.0
-2.8
1 .3
0 .9
-29.3
-24.8

-1 .7
-2.0
1 .1
0 .3
-19.0
-15.4

240
241
242
243
245
30

2.9
2 .3
3,3
2 7
2 .6
2.1

1.5
1 .1
0.5
0 .6
2 .3
1 .5

260
261
262
263
266
267

A. National Income and Product
Al. GNP and Personal Income
200
50
217.
213
224
225.
227.

Gross national product
Gross national product in 1982 dollars
Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars
Final sales in 1982 dollars
Disposable personal income
Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars
Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars

230
231
232
233.
236
238.
237
239

Total
.
Total in 1982 dollars
Durable goods
Durable goods in 1982 dollars
Nondurable goods
Nondurable goods in 1982 dollars
Services
Services in 1982 dollars

240
241
242
243
245
30.

Total
Total in 1982 dollars
Fixed investment
...
Fixed investment in 1982 dollars
Change in business inventories3
Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars3

4149.2
3655.9
15,188
3616,1
2935.1
2581.2
10 , 5 7 7 1 0 , 7 2 3

4 1 7 5 , 6 4240 .7
3661 .4 3 6 8 6 . 4

15,179
3646.3
2978,5
2625.8
10,886

15,246
3686.7
2979.9
2605.5
10,776

2 6 2 7 . 1 2667 .9 2697.9 2 7 3 2 . 0
2342.0 2351.7 2372.7 2408.4
360.8
373.3
373 .9
362.0
357 .1
3 5 7 . 4 347 .0 3 4 5 . 4
929,7
928,4
907 .4
922.6
860.6
877 .3
8 4 3 . 8 847 .2
1346 ,4 1383 .2 1407 .4 1 4 2 9 . 8
1140.8 1157 .5 1 1 6 6 . 6 1 1 7 4 . 0

2799.8
2448.0

A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures

414.5
391 .6

932.8
875.4
1452.4
1181.0

A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment

. . ..

708.3
684.0
664.4

687.3
664.7
672.8

675.8

644.1
43 , 8
39.9

649 .6
14.5
15.1

651 . 6
-4.5
-0.3

836 .7

860.8

725,2
355.7

367.6

874.0
750.4
369.3

328 9
493 3
413 .3

330 9
504 ,7
419.5

-2.2
-3 .2
-6.6
-7 7
1 ,3
0.6

-93 7 -104 5 -10 8 9
7 8 9
-77 1
-83 7 -105 3
7
6 -10 8 2 -108 1 - 1 1 3 , 8 -132 0 -125 9 - 1 5 3 . 9 -163 ,3
363 0
370 8
368 2
374 8
7
369 8
370 0 ' 362 3
362 9
369 2
359 8
371 2
361 2
355 8
7
362 3
467 . 5
47 9 . 7
446.0 473.6
468.5
447 .1
448 .6
.4
513.6
534.5
469.6
494.8
495.1
470.5
469.3
.2

11 6
6 .1
1 8
1 7
-1 .1
0.1

-10 , 8
-28.0
-3 1
-2 5
-0.2
3.7

-4 4
-9.4
2 1
3 2
2.6
4.1

250
255
252
256
253
257

. .do
2 7 1 9 5 3 0 3 2 0 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 0 1 . 4 3 2 4 3 . 4 3 2 8 7 .3 3 3 4 0 . 7 3 3 7 6 .4 3 3 9 6 .1
. . .do.. .. 2 0 2 0 . 7 2 2 1 4 . 7 2 3 6 8 . 2 2 3 5 2 . 1 2380 .9 2 4 2 3 , 6 2 4 6 1 . 5 2480 .2 2 5 0 7 .4
.do
277 .5
249.3
262.1
265.3
289.1
254.4
255.5
236.9
190.9
do
16 . 2
12.8
16 .3
7 .3
8 3
13 2
7 6
8 1
8 3
do ....
293 1
302 .0
296 4
2743
2 96 3
285 6
213 7
264 7
280 7
. . .do. .
297.7
292 . 9
307 6
304 . 9
311 4
311 4
309 . 7
281 0
307 4

1 .6
1 .6
1.2
54.2
3 .8
-0.9

1 .1
0.8
9.0
27 .3
-1 .1
-2.4

0 .6
1.1
-4.0
-0.6
3 .0
-1 .6

220
280
282
284
286
288

do
do
do
do
Percent

11.3
1 .6
15.7
30.0
0 6

-7 . 5
-0 . 5
5 .2
-48.2
0 .1

-4,2
1.2
-45 .1
40.0
-2 .3

290
295
292
298
293

do
.. . .do
... .do
do
do
.
.do. . .

502 .3

510.4
-7 .1
-6.4

. ...do.
. . . do. . .
do. .
do
do
... .do

675.0

do
do... .
do
. . do
. .do.
. .. .do. ...

-6
-19
352
3 48

662 .1
652 .0
598 .0

669.5

661 .1
647 . 7

667 .1
655 .6

657 .4
643 .8

650.0
638.6

648.0

654.3

592,8
64.1
59,2

11.1
9.0

638.1
19,1
17.4

643. 1
3 .1
0.7

733.4
675.2

799.0
708.3
340.9

829.7

855.6
749 . 4

360.9

380.9

275 1
391 5

815.4
721.2
354.1
323 6
461 3

731 *8

311.3
291 7
422 2

320
480

383.5

397.6

396.9

329 9
46 8 8
401 .9

347 2
47 4 7

373.9

402.2

404.8

504.0
509.4

653 .2

672.6
658.4
-3 .1
-5.2

651 .3

680.3

A4. Government Purchases
of Goods and Services
260
261
262.
263
266
267.

Total
Total in 1982 dollars
Federal Government
Federal Government in 1982 dollars
State and local government
State and local government in 1982 dollars

6 4 9 .0

283.5

311 4
458 1

4
9

742 . 2

AS. Foreign Trade
250
255
252
256
253.
257.

Net exports of goods and services3
Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars3
Exports of goods and services
Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
Imports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars

1
9
5
1

358.7
368.1

58
-83
382
369
441
453

A6. National Income and Its Components
220
280
282.
284
286
288

National income
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj
Net interest

290
295
292
298
293

Gross saving
Business saving
Personal saving
Government surplus or deficit3
Personal saving rate3

A7. Saving
46 3 6
573
461 6
506
168
130 6
- 1 2 8 6 - 10 1
6
5 4

3
551
544
1
143
7
5 -136
5
3

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ® , that appear to contain no seasonal
movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in
current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles and sources, see "Titles and Sources of
Series" at the back of this issue. NA, not available, a, anticipated. EOP, end of period. A.r., annual rate. S/A,
seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. CCAdj, capital consumption
adjustment.
1
The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all
turns: L, leading; C, roughly coincident; Lg, lagging; U, unclassified.




524
541 7
5
566 8
553
5
5389
560.1
119 6
125
3
183 6
3 -1 55 6 - 1 3 8 0 -1 55
i
4 2
6 5
4

1
583
562
5
8
145
1 -125
5
4

2
53 9 7
517
566
6
559 . 9
1 53 1
84
6
1 -173 .3 -133
2
5 1
0

1
.4
1
.3
8

2
For a few series, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits than those shown
figures published by the source agencies are used if available.
3
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
'Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general
the changes are reversed.
* E'nd-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series)
period.
5
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed
the span.

elsewhere in BCD. Annual
business activity, signs of
are the last figures for the
on the terminal month of

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

Chart Al. Composite Indexes
Aug. Apr.

P T

P

Nov. Mar.

Dee. Nov.

Apr, Feb.

P

T

P

T

T

Jan. July July
P T P.

Nov.
T

1967~tQOJ
190180170160150-

910. Index of twelve leading imfcators
, ,
(series 1,5,8,12,19, 20,29,32,36,99.1106 111)

iif

-8 i

140130120110-

X

10090-

180170160150140-

920. Index of four roughly coincident indicators
(series 41,47,51,57)

130120110-

z_

1009080-

930. Index Of six lagging indicators
(series62t77, 91, , 101,109)

t

150140-

j
i

130120-

s

11010090"

70-

60-

50-

40jJliL

bJU

Uf't

L"u

n

Ui li

1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 1987
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) In months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.

10



DECEMBER

1986

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
IA

I

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart Al. Composite Indexes—Continued
July May
P T

Aug. Apr.
P T

,

Apr. Feb.
P T

Dec. Nov.
P
T

Nov. Mar.
P
T

'IfcAcist^iMl

.914 (Japitai in^estnienVcommiWjentii (series;

-15

TVI^
4*

l

l

l

Jan, July July Nov.
F T P
T

>

!l

'

^: ,

BI

•

iU ' i . ;.....!!

' -

•"

1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 1987
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads {-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.

1986




11010090-

4
915. Inventory investment arid purchasing (series 8, 32, 36, 9
1
;
il;

ItCII DECEMBER

120-

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
[ A|

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A2. Leading Index Components
July May
P T

Aug. Apr.
P T

Dec. Nov.

Apr. Feb.
P T

P

Nov.

T

P

Mar.
T

Jan. July July Nov.
P T
P
T

1, Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervfeory workers, manufacturing (hours)

K fl Uflf affB wfiflkjy initj

State programs (thousands—inverted scale)

8, Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goo
and materials industries (bil. dol.)

32. vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower
i t j »h

12. Net business formation (index: 1967-100)
i
I

i ii

20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment^
1982 dollars (bil. dol.)

1950 51 52

53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60

61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 7Q 77 78 79 80

81 82 83 84 85 86 1987

Current data for these series are shown on pages 61, 64, 65, and 66.

12



DECEMBER

1986

CYCLICAL
A

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued
Aug. Apr,
P T

July May
P T

Apr. Feb.
P T

Jan, July July
P T
P

Nov.
T

200 n
ISO-

wo120 100-

36. Change in manufacturing ahd trade inventories on hand ant) on order m 1982 dollarsj; smoothed1 (ann, rate, MLjdoL)

99. Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed1 (percent)

19, Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index; 1941-43-10)'!
L

106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dofflars {b| dol,)
* I
,i f l
il

111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding
(aim, rate, percent)

1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 §8 59 60 01 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 8S 8S
'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 68, 69, 71, and 72.

ItCII DECEMBER

1986




13

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
AJ

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A3. Coincident Index Components
July May
P T

Aug. Apr.
P T

Jan. July July Nov.
F T P
T

Apr. Feb.
P T

41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (mitos)

Personal income less transfer payments in
1982 dollars (arm. rate, bil. do!,)

47, Industrial production !(imiex: 1977-100)

57. Manufacturing and trade sales in
1982 doflars (bJLdoU

1950 51 52

53 54 55 56 57 S8 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 1987

Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 63, and 65.

14



DECEMBER 1986

ltd)

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
|A

|

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A4. Lagging Index Components
Aug. Apr.
P T

July May
P T

Apr, Feb.
P T

Dec. Nov.
P
T

Nov. Mar.
P
T

Jan. July July Nov.
P T
P
T

91. Average duration of

77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sates in
lm dollars (ratio) iL&Ulg

p2. Labor cost per unit of .output, manufacturing—acW data

109. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent)

101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982 dollars (bif. dot.)

95, Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income

£

1950

51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86

1987

Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 70, and 73.

ltd* DECEMBER

1986




15

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment
Apr. Feb.
P
T

Nov.
P

Dec. Nov.
P
T

Jan. July
P T

Mar.
T

July
P

Nov.
T

[Marginal Employment Adjustments
1, Average weekly hours of production or ^supervisory workers,
manufacturing (hours)

4140-

39-

38

21, Average weekly overtime hours of production or nbnsupervisory workers,
manufacturing (hoijrs) |i,C,L

3-

5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (thousands—inverted scale) fi~jfn
200-1

300-

400-

500600700-

1.0

0.6
0.2 J
180
160

46. Help-wanted advertising in newspapers

140120100-

1959

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

1986

Current data for these series are shown on page 61.

16



DECEMBER 1986

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B !

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Continued
Jan. July July
F T P

Apr. Feb.

P

1

Nov.
T

jnployees on nonagricultural payrolls (millions)

employment to population of workiiig age

1959 60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85 1986

Current data for these series are shown on pages 61 and 62.

BCII DECEMBER

1986




17

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Continued
Apr. Feb.

P

Dee,

Nov.

Nov.

P

T

T

Jan. July
P T

Mar.

P

T

July
P

Nov.
T

I Comprehensive Unemployment |
'. Number of persons unemployed (millions—inverted scate)

CT

45, Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (percent—inverted scale)

fc

\

91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale)
^S**r
n

,

nt-V.-nr1 lL^L«'L2i

j^^Y
X^^y

J^*/

/VVA.
A. /Jinr
r
\^~
v»

ii!

'!\

:

.;!

!i ^^

-

mi

.nA/^X

^^

ji!

i

\

V^

\"V^

V hf****^

i ! - 1!

•:

!!

-

ii

jw'X/

X

i \
'

-

-

^

\ /
';

V^

44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and ove^ (percent—inverted scale)
|Lg,Lg,lg|

\ /
1959

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85 1986

Current data for these series are shown on page 62.

18




DECEMBER 1986

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B2. Production and Income
Jan. July
F T

Apr. Feb.

P

T

July
P

Nov,
T

[Comprehensive Output and Income!

in 1982 dollars ($fm. rate, bii. dol.)

16002800
2600-

51. Personal ncome less transfer payments in 1982 dollars

2400
2200
2000

1800-

1600 <
1400-

1200*

53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing,
and construction (ann, rate, fail, dol.)

600 •

550'
500450*
400-

350

1959

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

1986

Current data for these series are shown on page 63.
DECEMBER 1986




19

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B2. Production and Income—Continued
Jan. July
F T

Apr. Feb.

P

T

July
P

NOT.
T

I Industrial Production |
Industraf production

73. industrial production, durable
(index;| 1977^100)

etc

, nondurable manufactures
100)

Value of goods output in
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)

clc

[Capacity Utilization
Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (percent)

Capacity utilization rate, materials (percent)

6©

$1

61

i$

S4

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

84

SS

1986

Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.

20




DECEMBER

1986

KCII

B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Apr.

Feb.

Dec.

Nov.

P

T

P

T

[Orders and Deliveries|

Nov.
P

Mar.
T

7. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars,
industries (bil. dol.) 1
[7171 7=

r-'
i
/^

ZZZr!

Jan. July
P T

July
P

Nov.
T

120 T
11010090807060-

s new oraers in current dollars,
durable foods industries (oil dot)

50-

25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries (bil, dol.; MCD moving avg.—4-term)

96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(bil. dol.)
! fuTU

32. Vendor performance, percent of companies
receiving slower deliveries

1959
Current data for these series are shown on page 64.

BCD

DECEMBER 1986




21

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—'Continued
Jan. July
F T

Apr. Feb.

P

T

July
P

Nov.
T

[Consumption and Trade
57. Manufacturing and trade sales

Manufacturing and trade sales m current dollars

59, Sales of reM

t*

^11982 dollars (by. dol.)

54, Sales of retail stores h current dollars

clu

55. Personal consumption expenditures,
automobles, Q (arm, rate, bi, dol.)

58. tod?x of consumer sentiment (1$ Q 1966-lQO)

1099

6©

61

62

63

64

6i

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

1986

DECEMBER

1986

Current data for these series are shown on page 65.

22




CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment
Jan. July
F T

July
P

Nov.
T

I Formation of Business Enterprises]
12. Net business formation (index: 1967 MG0J

13. New business incorporations

m

less investment Commitments [

20, Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1982 dollars (bil.
Attracts and orders for plant and equipment
m curfant dollars (bil, dol.) li LI
27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense
(biLdoL)|m

capital goods industries (bil. doi.) ["["["[

9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial
buildings (mil, sq. ft. of floor space; MCD moving avg.
1959 60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

8©

81

82

83

84

85 1986

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F,W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66.

DECEMBER

1986




23

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
Jan. July

Apr. Feb.

P

F

T

T

July

Nov.

P

T

[Business Investment Commitments—Con.

97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations, Q (bil, dol.) : r—U.Lg.L

11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing corporations, Q (bil. do).)

100. Expenditures in 1982 dollars for new plant and equipment,
Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.) fcTgT
[Business Investment Expenditures]
61. Expenditures in current dollars for new plant and
equipment, Q (arm. rate, bil, dol.)

Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures
(arm. rate, bil. dol,)

76L Industrial production, business equipment
;i (index: 1977-100) (cj£

1959

60

61

62

63

64

6i

68

67

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85 1986

Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.

24



DECEMBER

1986

ltd*

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
Apr. Feb.

P

Dec. Nov.

P

T

T

Nov.

P

Jan. July
F T

Mar.

T

July
P

Nov.
T

[Business investment Expenditures—Con.|

529-i
480
440400 «

Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars (ann. rate, bil. dot.)
86. Total, Q
!

320-

IC.Lg.Cl

280-

240 •
200*

ISO120-

80-

I Residential Construction Commitments and Investment] j! ,.
28, New priva^ housing units started (arm, rate, millions)

29. New private housing units authorized by local building permits
(index: 1967 =f 100)

investment in
(ann. rate, bil dpi)

1959 60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

77

7B

79

80

81 • 82

83

84

85

1986

Current data for these series are shown on page 67.

DECEMBER

1986




25

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
Apr. Fab.

P

Dec.

| inventory Investment]

Nov.

Nov.

P

T

Jan. July
F T

Mar.

P

T

T

July
P

Nov.
T

30, Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil, dol.)

+ 90-

s

+ 60"
+ 300-30-

-60 J

36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and mi order
!
in 1982 dollars (ann, rate, bil. dd; moving avg.—4-term1)

31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories, hook value
(ann, rate, bii, do),; MCD moving avg.—6-term)
[

38, Change in manufacturers inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order, book value (bil. do!.; MCD moving avg,—4-term)
LUL

1959 60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

7S

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85 1986

'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.

26



DECEMBER 1986

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued
Apr, Feb.
P
T

Dec. Nov.
P
T

i
I Inverftories on Hand and on Order!

Mar.
T

Nov.
P

Jan. July
P T

July
P

Nov.
T

70, Manufacturing and trade inventoried!in 15$2 dollars (bil. dd,)

|Lg,Lg,Lg|

600550-

\L

BOO*
450*
400350 a

300250-

71. Manufacturing and trade inventories?
book value (bii. dol.)

200-

ISO- 8

110'
100"
90'

M

807060-

65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished poods,
book value (fail, dk)
iLglglg

5040-

30 J

77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars
LgfLg,tg|

1.8 T

1.71.61.5

1.4-

78. Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order-book value (bil. dol.) r~1

M.

280 T
260249220200*
180160-

140120100-

60-

401959

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

89

Current data for these series are shown on page 68.

BCII DECEMBER

1986




27

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
Apr. Feb.

P

Dee.

] Sensitive Commodity Prices |
H
— " "

98

-

Jan. July
P T

Nov,

P

T

T

Jyly
P

Nov.
T

Chan e

2 •" Pro*cer prices for 28 sensitive crpde and
intermediate materials (percent; MCD moving |avg.~6:term)

./*l

.iA

KMT i ft, liiMr

99, Change in sensitive materials prices (percent; moving
avg.-4-terrnl) InT

19, Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index; 1941-43=10)

| Prof its and Profit Margins]

18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars, Q
(ann, rate, bil. (M)

16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars, Q
(am. rate, bil, dol.) [Qp

1959 60

61

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
'Beginning with data for June 1981, this is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.

28




DECEMBER 1986 ltd)

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
Apr. Feb.

P

Dec.

T

Nov.

Nov.

P

T

Jan. July
P T

Mar.

P

T

July
P

Nov.

T

i-

24©2TO-

BO. Corporate profits after tax wfjh WAJjand CCAdj to..
1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, I

[Profts and Profit Margins—Con

ISO120 =

79. Corporate profits after tax with fVA and CC
current dollars, Q (ana rate, bil. dol.)

SIT
22, Ratio, corporate domestic

12 «
10•*-!

8-

6-

81, Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with tVA and
! CCAdj to corporate domestic incomer Q (percent)
15. Profits after taxes per dollar fe< Sales, manufacturing corporations, Q (cents)

I ^ W
p M
W K ^ ^ ^ i n ln lliW H ^ H M
H V ^ ^ In Hi Mlil
H H M I W H H H ^
M ^ H n W ^ ^ ^ ^ I ^ i W^ ^ M ^ ^ I I ^^ ^ ^ ^ R ^ ^
M M ^ ^ ^ ^ ^^
i n M H ^ MI^ i ^ B H ^ ^ M

26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm
business sector. 0 (index: 1977 = 10fl\ J

35, Corporate net cash flow in
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)

net cash flow in current dol ars, Q

1959 60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.

DECEMBER 1986




29

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
Apr. Feb.

P

Dec.

Nov.
P

Nov.

P

T

T

Jan. July

Mar.

P

T

I

July

Nov.

P

T

180170"
160150140-

UnitjjLabor Costs and Labor Share!

130120"
110-

63, Unit labor cost, business sector, Q
(indei; 1977-100)
'

10090"
80-

0.800.750.700,650.600.55-

68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit
nestle product in
1982 dollars, nonfinarcial corporations, Q (dollars)

0.500.450,40-

62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
(mdex; 1977-100)
908070-

Compensation of employees as a percent of national income,

Q (percent)

lLe.lg.liig|

78 1

I

76747270-

1959

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

1986

Current data for these series are shown on page 70.

30



DECEMBER 1986

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit
Apr. Feb,

P

Dec. Nov.

P

T

Jan. July July
F T P

Nov.

T

P

„.,,

Nov.
T

+2.0

85- Change in moriey supply Ml
I, |
(percent; MCl^j moving avg,-~ 6-term) I UTli|T

+ 1.6+ 1.2-

X M i Jfom lyBA^^ro^¥fyg
^
*^f Mm\ 1 >^ K v'
?

m—

-*1

*

ri n^r-^

+0.8-

*OT/
y ; %fTww

+0.4

I; i 1 :

0.0-0,4-

102. Change in money supply M2
(percent; M^jD moving avg.—6-terrq)
:
]
..

.

,|
L.C.Uiil

'""''A
'/.

'

"'i

i
^

TTTff

104. Change in total liquid as^ts (percent; MCD movfog avgv—6-term) [IJJ

Money s|jpj% Ml in 1982 doHanii (ML

DLL

106, Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (bi. dd.)
[U

107. Ratio, grijss national product to money

Q<rati°J! (clcl.

|VelOjCity of Money |
108, Ratio, personal income to money $uprfy M2:(ratio) |CtLgtC

1959

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

79

76

77

78

79

80

81

84

89 1986

Current data for these series are shown on page 71.

BCII DECEMBER 1986



31

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Jan. July
F T

Apr. Feb.

P

T

July
P

Nov.
T

81

82

[Credit Flows]
33, Net change in mortgage debt held by financial nstitutions
and fife insurance

112. Net change i
MCD moving avg,—

113. Net change
(ann. rate,

MCD moving avg — 6-term)

. rate, percent)

Change in business and consumer credit outstanding

L.L.L

75

78

Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers

1959

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

76

77

79

SO

83

84

85 1986

Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.

32



DECEMBER 1986

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Apr. Feb.

P

Nov.

Dec. Nov.

P

I

Jan. July
P T

Mar.

P

T

T

July
P

Nov.
T

[Credit Difficulties|
14. Current liabilities of business failures (mil. dolinverted scale; MCCJIinovSng avg-~~ 6-term)

300040005Q00J

39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over
(percent-invert^ $cale) r—->
|;
;|
JL

< \

I ^|i-|L- I

'•l

'

93. Free r$erves (btl. do!.—inverted s c d )

94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve (bil. dot.)
Lg,U

1959 60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

Current data for these series are shown on page 72.

KCII DECEMBER

1986




33

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Jan. July

July

P T

P

Nov.

T

119, Federal funds rate (percent)

Discount rate on new issues of 91-day
Treasury bilk (percent) |c,Lg,l

116, Yield on new issues o
ijprantj llg,Lg,Lg|

gride corporate bonds

VieW on Jong-term Treasury bowjs

118, Secondary market yields on

1J7. Yield on municipal tjonds> ;20-bond average (percent)

1959

60

i
l

62

63

64

6i

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

1986

Current data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73.

34




DECEMBER 1986

KCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Jan. July
P T

Apr, Feb.

P

T

July
P

Nov.
T

81

82

[Interest Rates—Con.]
Average prime rate charged by banks (percent)

101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in

[Outstanding Debt I

72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
in current dollars

(bildoi.)

S

nstallment credit outstanding to personal

1959 60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

83

84

85 1986

Current data for these series are shown on page 73.

BCII DECEMBER

1986




35

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes
P

Nov.

P

T

Jan. July
P T

Mar,

P

Dee. Nov.

Apr, F«b.

T

T

950, Twelve leading indicator components (6-mo. span

July
P

Nov.
T

| Percent rising |

, 1-mo, span-—)

100-

50-

0-

951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (6~rrto. span—-, 1-mo. span-—)

U

'
' 111. il" i!•

mi

211 Hi'.

100-

i' ff
-

Hi

50-

0-

952. Six lagging indicator Components <6-mo. span—n, 1-mo. span—)
100-

50-

0-

961. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20
manufacturing industries (9-mo span.—, ^mo.span-iL)

100-

50-

0-

962, Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, 51 areas
(percent declining; 9-mo. pan—, 1-mo. span---) j|

100-

^*
3

963, Employees on private nonagricuitural payrolls, 172-186 industries
(6-mo. span^, l-rtjo. span-.,)

100-

§0-

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85 1986

Current data for these series are shown on page 74.

36



DECEMBER

1986

IICII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes—Continued
Apr, Feb.
P
T

Dec.
P

Nov.
P .

Nov.
T

Mar.
T

Jan. July

F

T

July

Nov.

P

T

964. Manufacturers' new orders, 34-35 durable goods industries
(9-mo, span—, l-roo, span---)
100-

50-

0-

30j. iwwiy dppruveu idpiid) dppiujjridiiuiis m ijoe,

manufacturing industries (4-Q moving avg**«, 1-Q span***)
90-

70-

50-

30-

966. Industrial production, 24 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span---)
100-

50-

3b/T5pot mantet prices, id raw inaustnarmatenals
(9-mo. span_, 1-mo. span---)
100"

50-

0-

968, block prices, DUU common stocks, 4Z-K/ industries
(9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span---)

100-

50-

0-

960. Net profits, manufacturing, about 600 companies1 (4-Q span)
90-

TOSOSO-

1959 60

6^

65

67

68

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.

DECEMBER 1986




37

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE— Continued

Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes — Continued
Jan. July
F T

Mar.

T

July
P

Jin. July
F T

Wov.
T

July
P

Nov.
T

Actual
Anticipated

| Percent rising]

970. Expenditures for new plant and equipment,
21 industries (1-Qspan)
(a) Actual expenditures

974. Number of employees, manufodbrirtg and trade (4-Q span)1

975. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)

971. New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span)

976, Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q span)
10090807060-

972, Net profits, manufacturing ajnd trade (4MJ span)1

1

977, Seing price?, wholesale trade (4-Q span)

10090-

807060-

973. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)

978. Seine prices, retal trade (4-Q span)
100 -I

100-

90-

90-

80-

80-

706084

85

86 1987

1975

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86 1987

1
This Is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400
business executives.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.

38




DECEMBER 1986

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart C3. Rates of Change
Apr. Feb.
P
T

Dec.
P

Nov.
P

Nov.
T

Mar.
T

Jan, July
P T

July
P

Nov.
T

1-month spans
3-month spans

| Percent change at annual rate |
910c. Composite index of twelve leading indicator

920c. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators

u—

-

930c. Composite index of six tagging indicators

47c. index of industrial production

50c. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (1-Q span)

48c, Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments

51c, Personal income tess transfer
payments in 1982 dollars

1959

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

7©

71

72

73

74

75

78

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide'Nndicates the latest issue in which the data for each series were published.

DECEMBER 1986




39

IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart Al. GNP and Personal Income
Apr, Feb.

F

July July
T P

Hw.
T

200. Gross national product in current dollars, Q (aim. rate, bit. do(.)

Personal income in current dollars

Disposable personal income in current
dollars, Q (arm, rate, bil. dot.)
Gross national product in 1982 dollars

213. Final sales in 1982 dollars, Q (ann, rate, bB, dot)

Disposable personal income in 1982
(arm, rate, bil, doJ.)

217. Per capita gross national producf in 19?2 dollars, q
(ann. rate, thous, dot.)

Per capita disposable personal income
iw ootars, u i ann. rate, inous, 001.) \
63

64

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

83

84

8S 1986

Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80.

40




DECEMBER 1986

ItCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
Apr Feb.
P
T

Dec.

Nov.

P

Jan. July

T

T

July

Nov.

P

T

| Annual rate, billion dollars (current))

i| Personal consumption expenditures—

Annual rate, bidn dollars (1982) |

1959

60

61

$2

63

64

63

66

67

68

69

70

71

Current data for these series are shown on pages 80 and 81.

ltd* DECEMBER

1986




41

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
Jan. July July
F T P

Apr. Feb.

P

T

Nov.
T

Gross private domestic investment-

242. Fixed investment, Q

245. Change in business inventories, Q

30, Change in business inventories, Q

1959 60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

7$

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85 1986

Current data for these series are shown on page 81.

42




DECEMBER 1986

KCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services

Annual rate, bion dollars (current))

Government purchases of goods and services—

262. Federal Government, Q

Annual rate, billion dollars (19S2) |

267. State and focal government, Q

263. Federal Government, Q

1959

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

Current data for these series are shown on page 81.

BCII DECEMBER

1986




43

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A5. Foreign Trade
P

Nov.

Dec. Nov.

Apr. Feb.

P

T

T

..

P

Jan. July

T

July

Nov.

P T

Mar.

__

P

T

| Annual rate, bikm doiars (current)|

500450400350300-

250200*

150-

252. Exports of goods and services, Q
253. Imports of goods and services, Q

50-

250, Net exports of goods aid services, Q

Exports of goods and services, Q

Net exports of goods and services, 0

1959

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.

44



DECEMBER

1986

KCII

OTHER
A I

MEASURES

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A6. National Income and Its Components
Apr. Feb.

P

Jan. July

F

T

T

July

Nov.

P

T

Annual rate, biBion dollars (current) [

286, Corporate profits befqre tax with inventory vamatw and capital

282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments,

284. Rental income of persons with capital
consumption adjustment, Q
r

1959

6©

SI

74

§2

75

76

77

78

79

81

82

83

84

85 1936

Current data for these series are shown on page 82,

DECEMBER

1986




45

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

I

Chart A7. Saving
Jan. July
P T

Apr. Feb.

P

T

July
P

Nov.
T

Annual rate, biHtet doiars (current) | ~~-

298. Government surplus or deficit, Q

1959 60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85 1986

Current data for these series are shown on pages 82 and 83.

46



DECEMBER 1986

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA

I

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income
Jan. July
P I

July
P

Nov.
T

I Percent of GNPI
70-

235. Personal consumntion

65-

60 J

20-1

State and local government purchases
of goods and services, Q
15-

10-

248. Nonresidentialfixedi
5-

249. Residential fixed investment, Q
0-

^247. Change jn business inventories, Q

251. Net exports of goods and services, Q
-S J

Percent of National Income
80-

64. Compensation pf employees, Q
75-

70-

65J
1ft-I

te profits before tax with inventory valuation
J and capital consumption

101

' income with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments, Q
5-

285, Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, Q

0J

IL/UUX
1959

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

- ;•
71

72

jiUruA
73

74

- •
75

76

77

.

' • '
7S

Ji^

79

30

^ A>i^ n,
SI

82

S3

34

85 1986

Current data for these series are shown on page 83.

ItCII DECEMBER

1986




47

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

Chart Bl. Price Movements
Mar.

Jan. July

July

Nov.

Mar.

Jan, July

July

Wov.

T

P T

P

T

T

P T

P

T

1 Index: 1982 =1001

310c, Implicit price deflator for gross [Percent change at annual rate]
national product (1-0 scan)

310. Implicit price deflator for
national product, 0
311c, Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product
(1-Q span)

/*
Producer price indexe$— \

1 6-month spans |

330c. Alt commodities
+ 100-

-10-

335c. Industrial comnWdties
+20-1
+ 10-

\f

0-

-10-

331c, Crude materials for
further processing

331, Crude materials for
further processing

332c. intermediate materials, i
supplies, and components

III
320-

jflbtHESv sncii^Qmponcnts i

+ 20+ 10-

300280260240220200-

33?

30-

0-

-10-

•»].

333c. Capital equipment

340
320
300

".V

280

334c. Finished consumer goods

260
240220200

\

180-

334, Finished consumer goods
Ulf.

197S

76

77

78

79

80

"ULJUUl

81

82

83

84

85

86

1987

1975

76

77

Si 1987

Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 85, and 86.




DECEMBER

1986

not

OTHER SMTOHmNT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Chart Bl. Price Movements—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P
T

Dec.
P

Nov. Mar.
P
T

Nov.
T

Jan. July
P T

July
P

Nov.
T

I index: 1967=1001

322. All urban consumers, food V

320c. All urban consumers (6-month span)

if
322c. All urban consumers, food (6-month span) /* ^ y\
f^^*\
ff

j/^

~-A »

-^"ifciK^/

*J\~ /^^^-^/^\^w/w%sX

x/V\^y\

V\ >

®

+10-

0

>^*^

M ...>...:,

,

Chart B2. Wages and Productivity
1 Index: 1977
2001
180-

160«

341. Real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory_
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls1

140120-

X

100-

340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory !j
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (current dollars)1

200 T

346. Real average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q

80-

345, Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm busMess sector, Q (current dollars)

1959 60

61

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

SO

81

82

83

84

85 1986°

'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88.

ItCII DECEMBER 1986




49

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Chart 82. Wages and Productivity—Continued
Jan. July July
F T P

Apr. Feb.

P

T

Nov.
T

6-month spans (ami rate)

Change in average hourly "feaWrigi 6f fMMltttofl o
workers on private nonagriculturaj payrolls1—

pnrcwT'TOmHnn
340c,

',<!' "

'

'.»

'

-ITI

'

Change in average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, 0—
i-quarier spans ^ann. raiej
X

345c. Current-dollar compensation

4-quarter spans '

Negotiated wage and benefit decisions—
348. Average first-year changes, Q (ann. rate)
349. Average changes over life of
; contract, 0 (ann, rate)

llMex:1977=100l
358, Output per hour, all persons,
nonfarm business sector, Q

370. Output per hour, all persons
business sector, Q
370c. Change in output per hour, all persons, business sector, Q

4-quarter spans ^
1959 60

61

62

63

64

S5

66

87

68

V
69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85 1986

2

'Adjusted for overtime {in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality. 0ne-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make them comparable
with the annual!zed 6-month changes. See page 87 for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88.

50




DECEMBER 1986

KCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
C

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Chart Cl. Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
Dec.

P

Nov.
P

Nov.

P

Apr. Feb.

T

T

Jan. July
P T

Mar.
T

July
P

Nov.
T

130-1
120110-

, 441. Civilian labor force (miiKons)

100-

90-

80-

442, Civilian employment (millions)

70-

Civilian labor force participation rates (percent)— \t
BO-

451, Males 20 years and over

SS80"

7560-

453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age

55504540-

452. Females 20 years and over

141210-

Number unemployed (millions)

864-

444, Males 20 years
and over
2-

445. Females 20 years
and over
446. Both sexes 16-19 yetars of age

12108-

447. jjbnber unemployed, full-time
Workers (millions)

64-

J
1959

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

a

70

448, Number of persons {employed part time for
economic reas^ (millions)
71

72

73

74

79

76

77

78

_
79

80

(1

81

82

,
83

84

85

1986

Current data for these series are shown on page 89.

ltd)

DECEMBER 1986




51

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Chart Dl. Receipts and Expenditures
Apr. Feb.

P

Dec.

Nov.

Nov.

T

P

Jan. July
F T

Mar.

P

T

T

July
P

Nov.
T

Annual rate, bion defers (current)
1300"
1100900*

700500-

502, Federal Government expenditures, Q

"
a»

300-

3

100 J

and focal government receipts, Q

d local government expenditures, Q

1959

SO

61

63

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

7§

Current data for these series are shown on page 90.

52



DECEMBER 1986

HCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
I £) I

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Chart D2. Defense Indicators
Jan July
P T

July
P

Nov.
T

|Advance Measures of Defense Activity]

517, Defense Department gross obligations
(bil. do!.; MCD moving avg.

525. Defense Department prime cot
(bii. dol.; MCD moving avg.

iur1' r '

outstanding (bil. dol,)

-

*' '

J

||; MfjD mfving
||

1959 60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

Current data for these series are shown on page 90.

B€l» DECEMBER 1986



53

IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators — Continued
Apr. Feb.

P

T

Dse. Now.
P
T

Jan. July

F

T

July

Nov.

P

T

| Intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity] jj
defense and space equipment

products, book value

559, Manufacturers' inventories,
(bil. dd)

561, Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (oil. dol.)

580, Defense Department net outlays,
assistance (bil. doJ.)

notions and military

588, Manufacturers shipments,

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

SO

81

82

83

84

85 1986

Current data for these series are shown on page 91.

54




DECEMBER 1986

BUI

OTHER IMPORTANT EOONOMD© m
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
Apr. Feb.

P

Dec. Nov.

T

P

Nov.

in. July
P T

Mar.

P

T

T

July
P

How.
T

I Intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity—Con. |
570, Employment, defense products industries (millions)
1.8-

1.61.41.21.0J

Defense Department personnel (iWfcnri—

Military personnel on active duty

'

!

| National Defense Purchases |
1

300-

:

'

,

260-

!

i

220-

1
.

180-

Federal
564, Feder Government purchases of ^ods and services, national
defense,
defen Q (ann. rate, bil. dd)

1

'.

*r

I
140-

[

i

'

'

-

100-

j

:. •: . : /-"~~
—^-

\

60-

i

565. National defense purchases as a percent of GNP, Q (percent)
Hffl

8-

76«
54.

1959

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

73

74

77

7B

79

84

85

1986

Current data for these series are shown on page 91.

KCII

DECEMBER 1986




55

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Chart El. Merchandise Trade
Apr. Feb.
P
T

Dec.
P

Nov.
P

Mov.
T

Mar.
T

Jan. July
F T

July
P

Nov.
T
24 T
201612-

602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments
(bil, dd)
I

I

654«
3^
3

604, Exports of domestic agricultural products
(UdoL)
;
V
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery
(bil. dol.)
18"
14-

6J

612. General imports (bil. dd.)

4.0-

614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products —«- A

. doi.)

i

3,0-

r

^A^iiAn

2.0-

1.0-

616. Imports of automobiles and baits (bit. doJ.)

0.80.6-

0.4-

0.2-

1959

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

83

83

84

85 1986

Current data for these series are shown on page 92.

56




DECEMBER 1986

BCD

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E I

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued

Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements
Jan. July
P T

July
P

Nov.
T

| Annual ratet billion dollars

Excess of receipts
payments

Goods and services—
667. Balance on goods and services, Q

Merchandise, adjusted—

622. Balance on merchandise trade, Q

\

\
620. Imports, Q

Income on investment—

651, U.S, investment abroad, Q

652. Foreign investment in the United States, Q
1959 60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

Current data for these series are shown on page 93.

ltd)

DECEMBER 1986




57

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Chart Fl. Industrial Production
P

Jan July
F T

Dae. Nov.
P
T

Apr. Feb.

T

July
P

Nov.
T

I Index: 1977 ^1001
180160-

Industrial production—

14012010080-

60-

40 J

14012010080-

60-

14012010080-

60-

40-

1959

60

61

82

63

64

65

66

€7

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

79

80

81

82

83

84

85 1986

Current data for these series are shown on page 94.

58



DECEMBER 1986

BCII

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Chart F2. Consumer Prices
'Mar.
T

Jan. July
F T

July
P

Chart F3. Stock Prices
Nov.
T

Jan. July
F T

July
P

Nov.
T

[Percent change at annual rate
Consumer prices—

1975

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

1987

1975

76

77

78

J©

Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96.

KCII

DECEMBER 1986




59

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A

I

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

^g COMPOSITE INDEXES

Year
and
month

910. Index of
twelve leading
indicators (series
1, 5, 8, 12, 19,
20, 29, 32, 36,
99, 106, 111)

(1967-100)

920. Index of
four roughly
coincident indicators (series
41,47,51,57)

(1967 = 100)

'930. Index of
six lagging indicators (series
62, 77, 91, 95,
101, 109)

(1967 = 100)

940. Ratio,
coincident index
to lagging index

Leading indicator subgroups
914. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 12, 20,
29)

915. Inventory
investment and
purchasing
(series 8, 32, 36,
99)

(1967=100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

916. Profitability (series
19, 26, 80)

(1967 = 100)

917. Money and
financial flows
(series 104, 106f
111)

(1967-100)

1984
January
February
March

164.5
166.5
167.2

149.5
150.6
151.1

109.8
111.3
112.8

EJ}136.2
135.3
134.0

110.3
g>111.5
110.8

106,1
106.8
107.5

109.2
108.4
109.3

133.4
134.8
136.3

April
May
June

168.1
168.2
166.7

152.6
153.9
155.4

114.6
116.4
117.5

133.2
132.2
132.3

110.7
110.7
111.1

D107.9
107.7
106.0

110.1
110.8
110.5

136.6
138.1
138.0

July
August
September

163.9
164.4
165.7

155.7
156.0
156.5

118.8
119.8
121.0

131.1
130.2
129.3

109.6
110.3
110.4

104.6
103.6
103.8

110.3
111.7
112,2

137.3
136,9
137.3

October
November
December

164.2
165.1
164.1

156.5
157.7
158.8

122.0
121.7
121.9

128.3
129.6
130.3

109.3
109.8
109.3

103.8
103.4
102.3

112.4
112.8
112.5

135.5
136.0
136,3

January
February
March

166.3
167.1
167.4

158.4
159.0
159.3

123.7
124.3
125.4

128.1
127.9
127.0

109.2
111.0
110.8

102.6
102.5
102.0

113.1
114.1
114.2

139.0
138.6
138.9

April
May
June ,

166.7
167.1
167.7

160.5
160.2
159.5

125.1
126.7
126.5

128.3
126.4
126.1

110.0
109.7
110.1

101.8
101.6
101.5

114.5
115.0
115.8

137.1
135.9
135.6

July
August
September

169.2
169.8
170.6

159.7
160.9
160.9

126.9
127.2
128.4

125.8
126.5
125.3

110.5
110.6
111.2

101.5
101.5
101.6

116.7
116.9
115.6

137.7
139.0
140.0

171,6
171.6
r!73.6

160.8
161.6
163.0

129.7
129.7
130.2

124.0
124.6
125.2

110.3
109.5
110.5

102.1
102.3
102.7

114,8
114.9
rl!6.5

141.1
140.6
141,9

173.5
174.9
176.0

162.9
163.4
162.9

131.8
132.0
133.1

123.6
123.8
122.4

108.9
110.8
110,5

103.3
103.4
103.3

rl!7.3
r!19,0
rl!9.8

142.2
140.5
139.9

r!78.2
178.1
177.7

165.5
164.2
163.7

131.4
132.5
132.2

126.0
123,9
123.8

111.1
109.8
109.9

103.6
103.2
102.6

rl!9.9
rl!9.7
r!20.4

140.3
142.8
143.0

July
August
September

179.4
179.1
179.5

r!64.2
r!64.5
165.4

132.2
r!31.9
131.5

r!24.2
r!24.7
125.8

110.6
r!09.3
109.7

102.7
102.3
102.4

r!20.2
(B>rl20.8
(NA)

145.5
r!46.2
r!46.3

October .November
December

180.4
D 1 182.5

164.8
D 2 165.5

ED133.5
3
133.2

r!23.4
p!24.2

r!09.0
p!09.5

r!02.5
p!03.6

1985

October . .
November
December

1986
January
February
March
April
May
June

[H>rl47.8
p!47.4

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (§), that appear to contain no seasonal movement Current high values are indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements
in general business activity, current low values are indicated by [H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back
of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 10 and 11.
Excludes series 36, for which data are not available.
2
Excludcs series 57, for which data are not available.
9
Hxcludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.

60



DECEMBER 1986

ItO

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Minor Economic
Process

Marginal Employment Adjustments

Timing Class

Year
and
month

L, L, L

L,C, L

1. Average weekly hours
of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing

L, Lg, U

L.C.L

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production
or nonsupervisory workers,
manufacturing

5. Average weekly initial
claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs'

(Hours)

(Hours)

Comprehensive
Employment

Job Vacancies

(Thous.)

60. Ratio, help-wanted
advertising in newspapers
to number of persons
unemployed

(Ratio)

L, Lg, U

U,C,C

46. Index of help-wanted
advertising in newspapers

48. Employee hours in

nonagncultural establishments

(1967=100)

(Ann. rate,
bil. hours)

1984

January
February
March

40.7
41.1
40.7

April
May
June

E>41.1
40.7
40.6

3.5
3.5
3.5

364
345
348

0 407
0 434
0 420

123
129
124

173 95
175 61
174 92

3.6
3.4
3.4

360
348
350

0.421
0 435
0 484

124
125
134

176.54
176 34
177 29

July
August
September

40 6
40.5
40.6

3 4
3.3
3.3

365
358
368

0 486
0 448
0 458

138
128
129

1 77 fiP
178 12
178 93

October
November
December

40 5
40 5
40 5

3 4
3 4
3 3

405
397
386

0 483
0 497
0 523

1 -3C

170 7-3
1 7Q Qfl
1 80 1 fi

January
February
March

40.5
40.1
40.5

3.3
3.3
3.3

378
402
389

0.493
0.500
0 500

140
141
141

180.23
180.17
181 38

April
May
June

40.3
40.4
40.5

3.3
3 2
3.2

387
383
392

0 468
0 467
0 498

132
132
141

181 05
181 65
181 88

July . , .
August
September

40.4
40.6
40.7

3 2
3.3
3.3

381
375
381

0 499
0.490
0.489

141
134
136

181 80
182.58
183.11

October
November
December

40.7
40.7
40.9

3.4
3.4
E>3.6

367
371
391

0.502
0.525
0.538

140
144
145

184.42
184.58
184.81

'

1 "37
1£C

1985

1986

January
February
March

40.8
40.7
40.7

3.5
3.4
3.4

375
384
393

E> 0.543
0.495
0.488

143
142
138

185.63
185.29
185.41

April
May . ,
June

40.7
40.7
40.6

3.4
3.4
3.3

374
378
378

0.471
0.445
0.497

132
128
141

185.82
185 76
185.45

July .
August
September

40.6
40.8
40.8

3.4
3.5
3.5

370
379
369

0.509
0.497
0.482

140
134
135

185.90
186.66
T186.95

October
November
December

r40.7
P40.9

3.5

343
E>342

0.509
pO.524

141
Dpl46

r!87.50
[H>pl88.76

p3.5

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17.
1
Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published.by the source agency.

DECEMBER 1986




61

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

^g EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued

Minor Economic
Process
. ..
Timing Class

Year
and
month

Comprehensive Unemployment

Comprehensive Employment— Continued

U, C, C

42. Number
of persons
engaged in nonagricultural
activities

(Thous.)

C,C,C

41. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls

(Thous.)

L, c t u
40. Employees
on nonagricul*
tural payrolls,
goodsproducing
industries
(Thous.)

U, Lg, U

L, Lg( U

L, Lg, U

90. Ratio,
civilian employment to population of
working age

37. Number of
persons unemployed

Lg, Lg, Lg

45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs1

43, Unemployment rate

(Thous.)

(Percent)

L, Lg, U

91. Average
duration of
unemployment

44. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over

(Percent)

(Weeks)

(Percent)

(Percent)

Li, Lg, Lg

1984

January
February
March

99,918
100,491
100,689

92,568
93,076
93,369

24,213
24,427
24,494

58.07
58.38
58.39

8,982
8,837
8,775

8.0
7.8
7.8

3.0
2.9
2.9

20.5
19.1

18.9

2.9
2.7
2 6

April
May
June

100,992
101,826
102,206

93,743
94,041
94,408

24,605
24,681
24,784

58 54
58.98
59.15

8 765
8,547
8,238

7 R

0

10

0

7.5
7.2

2.7
2.8

18.6
18.1

2.5
2.3

July
August
September

102,134
101,952
102,059

94,707
94,956
95,269

24,882
24,911
24,881

59 03

8 456
8 496
8,380

7 4

o 7
9 7

iA n

7 R

i7 c

2
2

7.4

2.7

17.2

2.3

October
November
December

102 464
102 576
in? QCT

95 607
95 Qfifi
96 147

?4 Ql ^
94 Q97

co Q7
DO. y/
en no
by. uy
Crt -i Q
by. is

O7O.
8 ,379
1 O/l
8 ,194

7.3
7,2
7.2

2.7
2.8
2.8

16.8
17.1
17.1

2.2
2.1
2.1

January
February
March ,

102,996
103,262
103,637

96,366
96,507
96,870

25,008
24,931
24 971

2. y
2.9
2.y

1C O

16.0

ic n
lo. 9

2.0
2.1
2.1

April
May . . . !
June

103,519
103,655
103,461

97,104
97,338
97,442

24 996
24,949
24,897

2
2.8
2.8

1C 1
16.1
15.0
15.5

2.1
2.0
2.0

July
August
September

103,751
104,115
104,502

97,672
97,890
98,128

24 875
24,880
24,843

CO

October
November
December

104,755
104,899
105,055

98,428
98,666
98,910

24,903
24,931
24,977

59.56
59.59
59.67 ,

January
February
March

105,655
105 465
105,503

99,296
99 429
99,484

(R) 25, 101
? c 01ft
24,945

59 90
^Q fi°,
59.70

E) 7 831
S COT
8,419

7.2

2.8

April
May
June

105,670
105,950
106,508

99,783
99,918
99,843

25,038
24,965
24,854

59 70
59 77
60.02

8 342
8,554
8,443

7 i
1 3
7.1

2 8
2 8
2.8

lift 14 1
14 4
15 2

18
1 9
2 0

July
August
. ,
September

106,769
107,107
106,770

100,105
100,283
rlOO,560

24,869
24,888
r24,858

60.08
E>60.17
59.96

8,190
8,027
8,329

6.9
6.8
7 0

2.8
2.8
2.8

15 0
15 8

1 9
1 9
2.0

r24,872

60.09
60.11

8,242
8,283

7.0
7 0

2.7
H)2 7

. ,

°d. Qftfi

CO

0/1

58.89

8,256

0

C

C

-3
0

1985

cq on
59.30

/ton

7 A

8,395

7.3
7 0
/. T

8

CQ

/|C

8

O.Q/I

CQ

07

8

OQ/I

59.35

59.12
01

59.34
59.46

7

-j

Q

Q

Q
.O

15.9

8,400
8,423

7.3
7.3

8 dm
8,133
8,271

7.0
/ O

0
2 .0
2.8
2.8

1C C
Ib. 5

7.1
7.1

15.5
15.5

2.0
2.0
2.0

8,301
8,161

7.1
7.0
6.9

2.7
2.7
2.8

15.4
15.7
15.4

2.0
1.9
1.9

E)6 7

2 8

14 Q

0

I C O

1 A
9 n

14.4

1.9

8,023

1986

October
November . . .
December

107,091
(H)107 146

rlOO,820
0>pl01 069

n/>4 91?

7

T

0

15.6
15.2

14 8

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on paces 14, 15, 17, and 18.
l
Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.

62




DECEMBER 1986

E>1.8
19

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

^J PRODUCTION AND INCOME

Minor Economic
Process

Comprehensive Output and Income

Timing Class

'Year
and
month

• c,c,c

,c,c,c
50. Gross national, product
in 1982 dollars

•

5 l.r Personal
income less :
transfer payments in 1982
dollars

52. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Ann. rate,
, bil, dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

,

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

c,c,c

. c, c, c

Personal income
223. Current
dollars

Industrial Production

(Ann. rate,
, bil. dol.)

.-

:

53, Wages and
salaries in 1982
dollars, mining,
mfg., and construction. (Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

c,c,c

'C, C, C

47. Index of
industrial .
production

(1977 = 100)

c,c,c

,C,L,L

73. Index of
industrial
production,
durable manufactures

74. Index of
industrial
production,
nondurable
manufactures

(1977-100)

49. Value of
goods output
in 1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

. (1977 = 100)

1984

January
February
March

3,444.7

3,003.3
3,036.9
3,062.4

2,820.0 •
2,843.5 . - .
2,859.4

2,397.7
2,422.3
2,437.3

519.7,
524.5
524.8

118.5
119.3
119.9

April
May
June

3,066.7
3,071.8
3,093.8

2,855.£
2,857.5 •
2,869.9-

2,432.1
2,434.6
2,448.2

526. l.\

3,48?!i

526.8
528.7

120.5
121.0
121.9

July
August
September

3,507.4

3,120.9
3,135.9
3,162.3,

2,887..0
2,887.62,903.9

2,466.2
2,466.7
2,484.0

530.4
531.6.
532.6

122.8
123.0
122.4

125.5
126.6.
125.8

October
November
December

3.52CL4

3,165.2
3,186.5
3,217.0

2,898.5
2,910.0
2,932.5

2,475.8
2,486.4 ,
2,515.6

532.5
535.1
537.4

122.1
122.7
122.7

126.1
126.5
126.5

122.7
123.2
122.8

1,509^5

119.9
120.9
121.8

•

119.9
121.2
121.8

1,486! 3

122.8
123.3
124.5

121.9
122.0
122.8

l,506!l

,

:

123.7

122.6

1,51CL3

122.3

?

1985

January
February
March

3,547;!b

3,227.3
3,258.3
3,273.8

2,933.9
2,951.4
2,952.0 ,

2,500.3
2,516.8
2,517.9

538.2;
537.3 /
539.2

122.7
123.2
123.4

126.6
126.4
127.3

122.6
123.5
123.7

l,52l!i

April
May
June

3,567*.6

3,302.7
3,288.5
3,304.9 '

2,972.7
2,949.3
2,958.7

2,537.6
2,514.8
2,525.1

537.1
537.7
537.1;

123.3
123.6.
123.6

127.5
127.4
127.0

124.1
124.7
124.8

1, 526^0

July
August
September

3,603*.8

3,315.4
3,320.5
3,333.9

2,962.8
2.96M
2,963.5

2,522.2
2,525.9
2,526.8

535.7
537.8
537.0.

123.4
124.4
124.3

128.1
127.4,

125.4
126.0
126.4

1,544! 2

October
November
December

3,622.3

3,358.3
3,372.3
3,418.0

2,971.92,971.2
3,003.5

2,535.9
2,536.4
2,569.0 .

538.7 ..
538.3
541.5

123.6
124.8
125.6

126.7
128.2
128.7

125.8
127.2
127.5

l,54l!7

January
February
March

3,655.9

3,417.4
3,435.3
3,445.1

April
May
June ,

3,66l'.4

3,486.8
3,481.3
•3,481.9

i>r3,686.'4

r3,490.8
r3,497.9
r3,507.9

'

•

126.

9:

1986

July .
August
September

;

October
November
December

r3,520.3
E>p3, 531.0

.
•'

-2,551.7
2,577.9
2,593.6

541.1
541.0
542.0

0)126.2
125.3
123.6

0)129.5
128.7
126.8

129.3
128.7
127.7

1,563*.6

0)2,633.9
2,621.9
2,609.9

H> 544.7
543.7
539.0

124.7
124.2
124.2

128.1
127.0
126.2

129.6
129,9
131.2

1,562.' 8

r3, 062.1
r3,060.3 ' ,
r3, 053.0 '

r2,605.7
r2,608.4
r2,601.6

538.9
541.4
r53^.0

124.9
125.1
r!25.1

127.4
127.5
r!28.0

13-1.7
r 13*2. 2
rl31.6

0)rl,568'.6

r3,058.5
p3, 065.1

r2,606.3 . p2,61,2.2

r544.4
P541.6

125.2
P125.9

r!27.9
. p!28.6

r!32.0
[H>pl33.1

2,992.5
3,021.4
3,040.7
[0)3,082.9
3,072.6
3,059.7:

See note on page 60.
Graph* of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40.

DECEMBER 1986




63

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

H

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process

PRODUCTION AND
INCOME-Continued

Q CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES

Capacity Utilization

Timing Class

L.C.U

82. Capacity
utilization rate,
manufacturing

Orders and Deliveries

L.C.U

84. Capacity
utilization rate,
materials

Year
and
month

L.L.L

Manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
6. Current
dollars

(Percent)

(Percent)

L, L, L

(Bil. dol.)

7. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Bil. dol.)

L,L,L

L, L,L

8. Manufacturers' new
orders in 1982
dollars, consumer goods
and materials

25. Change in
manufacturers'
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

I, Lg, U

96. Manufacturers1 unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries

(Bil. dol.)

L,L, L

32. Vendor
performance,
companies receiving slower
deliveries ©
(Percent
reporting)

1984

January
February
March

79.4
80.0
80.3

81.2
81.9
82.3

99.55
101.79
104.45

95.72
97.60
99.76

84.27
84.37
81.78

April
May
June

80.5
80.4
80.9

82.3
82.4
82.5

97.31
100.95
98.34

92.67
96.24
93.57

81.84
82.11
80.41

82.9

97.03
96.64
93.18

H>81.3

324.50
329.94
338.09

63
68
[H)72

1.85
4.06
0.61

339.93
343.99
344.60

71
70
66

82.58
82.52
79.75

4.14
1.61
0.00

348.73
350.34
350.34

60
54
58

-4.30

346.04
348.08
345.44

52
50
45

348.92
349.67
347.10

47
48
46

4.38
5.44

D8.14

81.2
80-6

ED 82. 9
82.3

101.98
101.86
98.21

80.7
80.7
80.4

81.1
81.1
81.3

96.51
104.43
101.31

91.56
98.90
95.84

81.84
83.35
82.57

January
February
March

80.2
80.2
80.4

81.4
81.3
81.2

105.45
102.47
99.54

99.67
96.76
93.91

86.65
83.67
81.88

April . . . .
May . . . .
June . . . .

80,4
80.3
80.0

80.5
80.1
80.2

99.84
102.97
106.78

94.10
96.69
100.17

83.31
84.09
83.17

-2.22
0.25
4.12

344.87
345.13
349.25

44
44
44

July
August
September

79.9
80.3
80.0

79.7
79.8
79,5

104.37
107.66
106.64

97.72
100.81
100.23

83.51
84.78
85.29

1.89
2.35
2.98

351.14
353.49
356.48

44
42
42

October . .
November
December

79.4
80.1
80.2

79.1
79.4
80.3

104.50
103.80
107.53

97.66
97.01
100.40

86.25
86.90
85.70

-1.98
-3.21
1.75

354.49
351.28
353.04

46
42
46

January
February
March

80.8
80.2
79,1

80.1
79.6
78.5

108.19
107.54
104.68

1)101.31
100.70
97.93

G>89.40
87.70
83.95

2.56
2.00
1.99

355.60
357.60
[H)359.59

46
48
50

April
May
June . . . .

79.9
79.4
79.3

78.7
78.1
78.0

103.75
102.62
102.73

96.78
95.64
95.74

86.96
83.68
85.68

-2.84
-1.05
-1.82

356.74
355.70
353.87

50
55
50

July
August
September

79.7

78.3

r77.9
r78.0

98.81
96.51
100.76

r84.84
85.25
88.32

-0.31

79.6

106.22
103.84
108.72

1.24

r79.7

355,11
354.80
357.50

54
51
52

October
November
December

r79.5
P79.9

r77.8
P78.2

r!03.57
E)pl09.68

r95.63
plOl.18

r87.41
P86.07

r-3.87
p2.18

r353.62
P355.80

54
56

July
August
September
October
November
December

2.04

-2.63

1985
3.48
0.75

-2.58

1986

2.70

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 21.

64



DECEMBER 1986

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

H

^Q CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES-Continued

Minor Economic
Process

Formation of Business Enterprises

Consumption and Trade

Timing Class

C.C.C

C.C.C

Manufacturing and trade sales
Year
and
month

56. Current
dollars
(Mil. dol.)

57. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Mil. dol.)

C.L.C

75. Index of
industrial
production,
consumer
goods
(1977 = 100)

C, L, U

U, L, U

Sales of retail stores
54. Current
dollars
(Mil. dol.)

FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT

59. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Mil. dol.)

L,C,C

55. Personal
consumption
expenditures,
automobiles
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot,)

L, L, L

58. Index of
consumer
sentiment ©

(IstQ
1966 = 100)

L,L,L

12. Index of
net business
formation

(1967 = 100)

ILL

13. Number of
new business
incorporations

(Number)

1984

January
February
March

402,489
402,395
404,612

387,815
388,104
388,841

116.8
117.3
117.2

105,669
105,850
104,322

101,507
101,583
100,021

102.'8

April
May
June

408,342
412,524
413,976

391,532
394,973
397,251

118.2
117.4
118.2

106,794
107,354
108,911

102,195
102,731
104,121

412,233
413,300
412,276

395,433
395,951
395,348

118.9
117.9
117.6

107,333
106,818
108,143

414,243
417,635
421,613

397,427
399,595
403,092

118.1
119.1
119.1

January
February
March

417,350
418,218
420,346

398,853
400,734
402,554

April
May
June

423,215
424,379
418,219

July
August
September

.

October
November
December

EDioi.o

1)123.2
122.6
121.6

52,674
53,535
53,075

1Q6J

96.1
98.1
95.5

121.4
120.4
120.7

53,298
50,736
53,884

102,613
101,731
102,798

105.'6

96.6
99.1
100.9 -

120.5
121.6
122.5

53,211
52,025
52,646

108,816
109,899
110,078

103,143
103,973
104,043

108,'i

96.3
95.7
92.9

121.4
120.0
119.5

52,587
53,838
53,558

118.0
119.1
119.3

110,511
111,935
111,999

104,256
105,301
104,966

116*2

96.0
93.7
93.7

121.4
122.7
122.0

52,768
54,765
55,785

406,623
408,803
400,212

118.9
119.7
119.9

114,256
113,992
113,468

106,881
106,734
106,243

112*8

94.6
91.8
96.5

121.6
119.6
120.2

55,659
55,694
55,270

421,565
428,205
427,201

July
August
September

100.1
97.4

404,428
411,491
410,596

119.4
120.9
121.1

114,620
116,349
118,499

107,322
108,737
110,643

126*4

94.0
92.4
92.1

122.4
121.5
121.3

r54,934
55,644
r55,939

r426,123
r431,382
432,797

r408,186
r'411,440
411,592

120.5
122.7
123.3

rl!4,947
rl!5,489
116,861

r!07,127
r!07,133
108,005

ni.'e

88.4
90.9
93.9

121.5
120.5
119.5

58,251
57,320
57,785

1985

October
November
December

..
..

1986

January
February
March

..

431,957
426,854
420,230

411,824
412,199
410,592

123.8
123.3
121.8

117,349
117,200
116,684

108,056
109,023
109,665

m.'i

95.6
95.9
95.1

118.4
121.2
121.8

57,452
[H>61,062
58,981

April
May
June

..

428,455
421,613
425,475

420,460
413,038
415,467

124.5
124.3
124,4

117,715
118,675
118,960

111,157
111,642
111,700

115*.2

96.2
94.8
99.3

123.1
119.9
119.5

59,880
57,789
56,771

July
August
September

427,473
429,310
[H>r442,206

r419,493
r421,843
{H)r432,903

125.2
125.1
r!24.7

119,804
121,523
E)rl28,331

112,492
113,467
[H>rll9,045

Drl40.1

97.7
94.9
91.9

121.6
119.5
120.9

57,789
55,647
57,310

October
November
December

p435,343
(NA)

p423,742
(NA)

r!24.7
[H>pl25.6

r!21,617
p!22,251

rl!3,027
pl!3,195

95.6
91.4

rl20.1
P119.7

(NA)

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 14, 22, and 23.

DECEMBER 1986




65

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Qj FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued

Minor Economic
Process

Business Investment Commitments

Timing Class

I, L, I

L, L, L

Contracts and orders for
plant and equipment
Year
and
month

10. Current
dollars

(Bil. dol.)

20, Constant
(1982) dollars

(Bil. dol.)

L, L, L

Manufacturers' new orders,
nondefense capital goods industries
24. Current
dollars

(Bil. dol.)

L, C r U

L.L.L

U, Lg, U

9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial buildings1

27. Constant
(1982) dollars

Square feet of
floor space ,

(Bil. dol.)

(Millions)

Square meters of
floor space 2

(Millions)

11. Newly
approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations

(Bil. dol.)

C, Lg, Lg

97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing
corporations

(Bil. dol.)

1984

29.47
30.99
30.93

30.02
31.51
31.46

25.72
27.02
26.76

26.40
27.69
27.48

72.72
64.41
74.95

6.76
5.98
6.96

26*92

April
May
June

30.27
33.53
32.06

30.67
33.97
32.64

26.33
28.56
27.72

26.94
29.29
28.57

79.78
82.49
74.90

7.41
7.66
6.96

[H>34! 12

July
August
September

32.94
31.11
31.66

33.27
31.70
32.25

28.14
26.74
27.39

28.78
27.61
28.24

79.55
82.65
75.84

7.39
7.68
7.05

27!31

October
November
December . . . .

29.97
31.43
31.49

30.35
32.07
31.47

25.26
26.84
26.89

25.97
27.79
27.21

79.04
83.75
86.73

7.34
7.78
8.06

29! io

January
February
March

27.81
33.80
32.09

27.74
B>35.81
32.91

23.63
29.49
27.21

23.90 .
H>31.86
28.43

81.14
82.48
87.41

7.54
7.66
8.12

29^94

April
May
June

30.32
30.66
32.63

30.49
31.33
33.34

25.46
25.59
27.98

26.04
26.72
29.14

91.95
83.99
69.68

8.54
7.80
6.47

27^56

July
August
September

32.08
32.11
34.57

32.63
33.01
35.24

26.68
27.55
29.24

27.74
28.89
30.43

91.89
91.41
E>93.19

8.54
8.49

October
November
December

32.82
r30.79
E)35.04

33.49
r31.52
34.61

27.09
25.79
D30.57

28.32
27.02
30-58

92.00
92.61
79.23

8.55
8.60
7.36

27*19

January
February
March . .

27.63
32.69
30.18

27.41
34.28
31.04

24.29
28.64
26.54

24.41
30.64
27.78

70.66
78.41
69.96

6.56
7.28
6.50

23.' 39

April
May
June

30.57
29.92
30.64

31.09
31.08
32.36

26.18
26.14
26.42

27.18
27.73
28.62

84,26
76.71
75.88

7.83
7.13
7.05

pl8'.77

July
August
September

31.68
30.18
32.46

33.56
32.26
33.60

27.39
26.32
28.22

29.76
28.85
29.86

73.10
79.09
80.82

6.79
7.35
7.51

(NA)

r31.39
P33.21

r32.30
P34.59

r26.91
p28.78

r28.35
P30.69

71.77
85.41

6.67
7.93

January
February
March

..

78*46

89.18

92! 06

94*37

1985

99*35

[H>99! 88
24*17
9?! 18

E>8.66

94*58

1996

October
November . . . . . . .
December

92 '.22

p86*37

(NA)

See note on page 60,
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24.

l
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information
Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
2
Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

66




DECEMBER

1986

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued

Minor Economic
Process

Residential Construction
Commitments and Investment

Business Investment Expenditures

Timing Class

C,Lg,Lg

C, Lg, Lg

Expenditures for new plant
and equipment
Year
and
month

61. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

100. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

C,Lg,Lg

C, Lg, U

69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and
business
construction
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
.bildql.)

76. Index of
Industrial production, business equipment

(1977 = 100).

C, Lg, C

Lg- Lg, Lg

C,Lg,C

28. New private housing
units started'

Gross private nonresidential
fixed investment in 1982 dollars
86, Total

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

87. Structures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

L,L,L

88. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
thous.)

L.L.L

29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits

(1967 = 100)

L, L,L

89. Gross private residential
fixed investment
in 1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1984

January
February
March

339^32

341 ".50

343.88
348.14
360.50

128.1
128.7
1.30.2

394.*4

133.*5

260.' 9

1,892
[H>2,213
1,671

144.8
E>158,5
137.6

169.*7

April
May
June

349^43

350^63

360.22
371.74
380.48

130.6
132.6
134.6

419*.5

141*.3

278^2

1,880
1,786
1,853

141.6
138.8
144.7

173.'2

361 ! 27

361 ! 60

372.60
' 380,07
393.49

135.9
138.5
137.0

427.1

142.9

284.2

1,733
1,589
1,702

128.0
122.0
121.5

171.2

367! 78

367!%

387.96
' 392.68
408.43

137.8
138.5
137.0

447 '.6

147.5

300.1

1,582
1,649
1,607

118.8
131.0
129.7

168.3

373! 56

371.' 84

374.91
389.27
407.68

138.3
139.2
138.9

442 '.7

149.9

. ' 2 9 2 '.8

1 ,804
1,632
1,849

130.8
135.2
139.9

172! 4

April
May
June

387! 86

38?; 3i

400.96
397.75
403.49

140.7
140.8
138.5

463*. 6

E>154*.i

308^9

1,851
1,684
1,693

135.1
137.7
136.9

175.'i

July
August
September

389 .*23

388158

397.96
408.25
397.48

139.5
141.0
140.4

463^1

152! 3

3l6!9

1,673
1,737
1,653

136.3
142.1
147.2

180 i'6

E>397.'88

[H)397.'57

: 409.3.0
410.53
E)423.97

138.3
140.8
140.0

E>476!9

152.4

324.*5

1,784
1,654
1,882

135.8
133.0
146.7

181.5

377.94

374.' 18

385.23
398.64
401.72

i>141.5
140.5
137.7

457 '.8

148.1

309.7

2,034
2,001
1,960

148.4
144.2
146.3

186,3

April
May
June

375!92

.r372.*73

402.58
390.01
397.39

138.6
137.9
136.6

456.*8

132.*9

323.*9

2,019
1,853
1,852

150.3
142.6
142.9

192,'7

July
August
September

374.55

368.69

399.98
400.05
396,56

137.9
rl-39,3
r!39.4

r454.4

r!29.5

[H>r324.9

1,782
1,795
rl,664

140.3
133.4
127.8

B)197.2

r404.90
ra394!34
C1)

ra389.17
(2)

r!39.4
p!40.1

rl,628
pi, 598

124.8
128.6

July
August
September

.

October
November
December
1985

January
February
March

. . .

'.

October
November
December
1986

January
February
March

October
November
December

, . .

..

(NA)

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25.
Anticipated expenditures for 1987: 1st quarter, 386, 82; 2d quarter, 393.39.
Anticipated expenditures for 1987: 1st quarter, 380, 04; 2d quarter, 386.29.

DECEMBER 1986




67

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

0 INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

Inventories on Hand and on Order

Inventory Investment

L, L,L

30. Change in
business inventories in 1982
dollars

L,L,L

L,L,L

36. Change in mfg. and trade
inventories on hand and on
order in 1982 dollars
l
Smoothed

Actual

31. Change
in mfg. and
trade inventories, book
value

1,1,1.

38. Change in
mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand

and on order 2

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol,)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg,

Lg

Manufacturing and trade
inventories
71. Book
value

(Bil. dol.)

70. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Bil. dot.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

L, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

77. Ratio,

65. Manufacturers' inventories,
finished
goods, book
value

mfg. and

trade inventories to
sales in
1982 dollars

(Bil. dol.)

78. Mfrs.1
inventories,
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order

(Bil. dol.)

(Ratio)

1984

January
February
March

B>85!i

62.68
E>89.59
66.35

49.81
58.78
68.10

0>88.9
80.1

2.35

84.44
63.10
-4.13

E>76.50
75.71
59.55

85.3
54.9
23.0

1.81

-0.22

53.4

2.81
2.82

524.73
532.14
538.82

587.47
593.08
598.50

81.16
81.90
83.14

1.51
1,53
1.54

211.54
214.36
216.71

545.93
550.50
552.42

604.62
609.46
610.60

84.14
85.11
86.38

1.54
1.54
1.54

218.52
220.18
219.97

April
May
June

5?!b

July
August
September

6CL6

63.48
49.10
27.62

44.31
38.48
41.44

57.0
54.6
45.1

-0.18
-0.05

557.17
561.72
565.48

615.49
620.82
623.89

86.95
87.80
88.55

1.56
1.57
1.58

[H>222.58
222.40
222.35

October
November
December

33^9

11.41
22.08
-5.39

38.05
24.87
14.87

39.3
29.9
26.3

-2.43
-1.56
-1.06

568.75
571.24
573.43

626.53
629.46
630.89

88.89
89,27
89.69

1.58
1.58
1.57

219.92
218.36
217.30

January . . .
February , , . .
March

29.90
14.93
-19.46

12.45
14.34
10.80

28.4
32.9
-2.1

0.65

23!2

-0.48
-3.07

575.80
578.54
578.37

632.39
634.14
634.21

89.69
89.86
90.12

1.59
1.58
1.58

217.95
217.47
214.40

April
May
June

7.42

4.71

17^4

-25.43

-5.76
-7.94

2.0
-8.6
27.5

-0.94
-1.54

578.53
577.81
580.11

635.58
634.35
635.39

90.12
ED 90. 13
89.87

1.56
1.55

213.46
211.93
213.61

-3.32
-1.88
-2.71

3.2
-10.6
0.4

-0.46

580.37
579.49
579.52

636.56
635.86
635.69

89.26
88.86
88.26

1.57
1.55
1.55

213.15
213.46
213.35

23.60
12.84

-2.29

-0.34
-1.28

5.47

12.16

r29.6
r4.7
r9.2

r581.99
r582.38
583.15

637,74
638.64
638.43

87.58
88.24
88.37

1.56
1.55
1.55

213.69
212.41
214.24

33.83
18.79
44.95

15.68
18.37
25.94

21.8
2.5
36.0

-0.26
-1.10

584.97
585.18
588.18

640.58
641.50
645.87

87.92
87.53
87.62

1.56
1.56
1.57

213.99
215.41
214.31

13.54
-52.33

29.14
13.91
-4.19

5.1
-22.5
26.2

-1.76
-1.39
-0.85

588.60
586.73
588,91

647.86
645.28
646.28

87.80
87.66
86.71

1.54
1.56
1.56

212.56
211.17
210.31

r!3.60
r-20.14
r-33.97

r-10.42
-5.04
r-6,59

35.8
-21.0
r-24.9

-0.24
-0.58

E>591.90
590.14
r588.07

E)r648.42
r646.97
r643.48

87.28
86.73
85.52

1.55
1.53
1.49

210.08
209,50
211.57

pO.79
(NA)

p-15.64
(NA)

p39.2
(NA)

p-0.82

p59l.33

P643.76

p85.45

1.66

2.61

1985

7.82

July . .
August . . . .
September . . .
October
November
December

7.88

0.7

-S.2

-17.23
-5.38

5.34

1.68

0.31

-0.11

1.83

Dl.59

1986

January
February
March

39! 9

April
May
June

15*. 1

July
August
September
October
November
December

7,50

r-6,*3

1.43

2.07

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

pi. 52
(NA)

(NA)

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13* 15, 26, and 27.
Ir
rhis series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
2
Series 38 reached its high value (3.02) in October 1983.

68




DECEMBER 1986

p210.76
(NA)

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

|
Q

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

98. Change in
producer prices
for 28 sensitive
crude and
intermediate
materials1
(Percent)

U, L, L

23. Index of
spot market
prices, raw
industrial,
materials2®

L,L, L

L, L L

99. Change in sensitive materials
prices 1
Smoothed3

Actual

'

> AND PROFITS

Stock
Prices

Sensitive Commodity Prices

L, L, L

PRICES COSTS

19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks ©

Protits and Profit Margins

L,L,L

L, L,L

Corporate profits after tax
16. Current
dollars

18. Constant
(1982) dollars

L.C.L

L.C.L

Corporate profits after tax
with IVA and CCAdj*
79. Current
dollars

80. Constant
(1982) dollars

L, U

22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after
tax to corporate domestic
incomel

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

166.39
157.25
157.44

E>14o!4

0)142," 7

159.*6

156.'l

6,*6

144.' 8

140 .'3

170.'i

166.'6

6.*4

-0.19

157.60
156.55
153.12

-0.65
-1.00
-0.96

151.08
164.42
166.11

135.'8

130.*3

170.'5

165.'4

5. *7

(1967 = 100)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(1941-43 = 10)

0.77
0.45
0.35
0.36
0.22

(Percent)

1984

January
February
March

-0.84

283.6
283.6
289.2

-0.33

1.27
0.19

April
May
June

-0.26
-0.84
-0.78

288.6
H>289.5
286.2

-0.16
-0.36
-0.73

July
August
September

-1.76
-1.10

280.1
275.6
274.0

-1.55
-1.08

October
November
December

-0.73

266.4
268.3
261.9

-1.21

164.82
166.27
164.48

127.*7

177.'l

171 .'2

5.*6

-0.89

-0.75
-0.47
-0.43

134 .'i

-0.37

January
February
March

-0.37
-1.59
-0.72

255.8
253.1
252.4

-0.85
-1.16
-0.48

-0.56
-0.73
-0.90

171.61
180.88
179.42

126*. 6

118'.7

178 1 7

m'.i

5!l

April
May
June

-0.03

257.1
252.0
242.9

0.52

0.66
0.14

-0.22
-1.00

-0.60
-0.22
-0.15

180.62
184.90
188.89

126*. 7

118.B

187^2

179^8

5.0

July
August
September

-0.03
-0.34
-0.34

240.7
239.8
238.0

-0.31
-0.26
-0.40

-0.37
-0.52
-0.42

192.54
188.31
184.06

133*.4

124^9

200.5

1)192*3

5.*3

October
November
December

0.59

236.9
234.5
235.0

0.18

-0.31
-0.31

-0.49
-0.09

-0.24
-0.20
-0.18

186.18
197.45
207.26

139*.4

130*.l

189^2

180.2

5.3

236.9
233.3
223.1

-1.02
-1.08

-0.12
-0.19
-0.44

208.19
219.37
232.33

r!26.9

rl!6.5

E>r200.7

r!90.1

r4.5

219.9
221.3
225.0

0.64
0.41
0.27

-0.55
-0.25

237.98
238.46
E>245.30

r!28.8

rll8.3

r!94.2

r!83.6

r4.8

240.18
245.00
238.27

r!35.9

r!24.3

r!97.6

r!85.3

r5.0

0.71

0.10

0.69
0.65

0.21

0.25

1985

1986

January
February
March
April
May
June

.

July
August
September
October
November
December

0.10

-1.14
0.45
2.02
0.44

-0.44
rO.65
r-2.58

0.27

227.6
212.0
221.2

1.50
1.72
1.05
5

rO.67
r-3.38

235.5
243.7
246.9

03)2.80

2.03

1.10

0.22

rO.44
r-0.18
-0.52

rO.13
1.23

6

237.36
245.09
249.78

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29.
,
ir
The following series reached their high values before 1984: series 98 (2.83) in February 1983, series 99 smoothed (1.81) in April 1983,
2
and series 22 ( . ) in 3d quarter 1983. This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written per6 7
mission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. 3See footnote 1 on page 68.
*IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consump5
6
tion adjustment.
Average for December 1 through 23.
Average for December 3, 10, 17, and 24.
DECEMBER 1986




69

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

QJ PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued

Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

U.L.L

81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after
tax with IVA
and CCAdj to
corp. domestic
income x

15. Profits after
taxes per dollar
of sales, manufacturing corporations

(Percent)

Year
and
month

L,L(L

(Cents)

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share

Cash Flows

Profits and Profit Margins— Continued

L, L, L

26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit
labor cost,
nonfarm business sector

L, L, L

L, L, L

Corporate net cash flow
34. Current
dollars

Lg, Lg, Lg

63. Index of
unit labor cost,
business sector

35. Constant
(1982) dollars

(1977-100)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(1977 = 100)

Lg, Lg, Lg

68. Labor cost
per unit of real
gross domestic
product, nonfinancial corporations
(Dollars)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, U, Lg

62. Index of labor cost per unit
of output, manufacturing
Actual data

(1977-100)

Actual data
as a percent
of trend

64. Compensation of employees as a
percent of national income

(Percent)

(Percent)

1984

January
February
March

7\3

4*9

98*6

345! 8

347^2

158*2

0.683

134.4
134.9
134.6

90.3
90.2
89.6

72.*7

April
May
June

7*8

[H)4'9

99^3

349*3 ,

349*. 7

158*3

0.684

135.0
134.9
134.4

89.4
89.0
88.2

72*9

7*6

4.4

99!i

348*9

348*7

166!2

0.694

134.3
134.9
136.0

87.8
87.7
88.0

73*2

7*9

4*3

98*8

357 '.8

357*. 1

161 '.7

0.699

136.2
136.5
137.5

87.8
87,5
87.8

73^3

January
February
March

7*9

4*2

98*7

361.6

360 "i

163.1

0.704

138.1
137.5
137.5

87.7
86.9
86.5

73*4

April
May
June . .

8*2

3^7

98!9

370*8

369*. 5

164.0

0.708

136.8
136.9
137.7

85.7
85.4
85.4

73*5

0)8*8

3!?

E>99*3

382!s

381.6

164*4

0.705

137.8
137.8
138.0

85.1
84.7
84.4

73*4

7^9

sis

98*2

[H>389"4

E>388*.i

167*3

0.716

139.7
138.6
139.4

85.1
84.0
84.1

73*7

138.1
138.6
1)140,4

82.9
82.8
83.5

73*7

73.5

:.

July
August
September
October
November
December

,

1985

July
August
September
October . . . .
November . . . .
December
1986

January
February
March . .

r8.2

3.6

99*0

r374*3

r374*.2

167*0

0.721

April
May
June

rS.'i

4*3

98.8

r374*9

r374*.l

168.0

0,724

138.4
139.1
138.6

82.0
82.0
81.3

July
August
September

r8*i

P3.4

99.1

r384.3

r383.8

H>169.1

E>0.727

137,8
138.2
138.1

80.4
80.3
79.9

October . .
November . . . .
December

140.0
P138.3

[H>73.8

m

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 29, and 30.
'IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.

70



DECEMBER 1986

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B

I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
..

^ MONEY AND CREDIT
|

Minor Economic
Process

Money

UL,L

Timing Class

85. Change
in money
supply Ml
Year
and
month
. : - (Percent)

L,C,U

102. Change
in, money ,
supply M2 l

(Percent)

Velocity of Money

L,U
104. Change
in total liquid
assets *

U;L

L. L, L

105. Money
Supply Ml in
1982 dollars

106. Money
supply M2 in
1982 dollars

(Percent)

(Bil, dol.)

(BiLdol.)

c,c,c
107. Ratio,
gross national
product to
money supply .
Ml

Credit Flows

C, Lg, C

L, L,l

108. Ratio, <
personal income
to money supply
M2

LtL,L

112. Net change .
in business loans

1.365
1.371
H>l-375

(Ratio)

33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by financial
institutions and
life insurance
companies
(Ann. rate,
', bil. dol.)

71 74
100 58
104 24

8 62
59 39'
[H)108 61

1.367
1 361
1 364

123 28
132 04
108 66

86 60
77 46
100 70

(Ratio) ,

,

(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)

1984

January
February
March

0.68
0.49
0.60

0.62
0.74
0.52

April
May
June

0.47
0.58
0.74

0.68
0.62
0.53

-0.02
0.24
0.62

0.40
0.63
0.79

1 03
0 76

-0 20

0 60

0.84

1.06

0 78

1 09

July
August
September

. .
'.. .

October
November . . . . . , . ,
December

501.7'
502 . 2
503 9

2,079 3
2,086 6
2,092 0

6.881

504.3
506 4
508 8

2,098.2
2,107 7
2,113 6

6 902

2,115 1
2,119 5
2 128 7

6.934

1.00

507 1
506 2
507 5

1 370
1 368
1 369

114 83
101 36
[fT>141 7D

33 50
17 ^Q
40 54

0.68
0.74
0.94

504 9
508.2'
510 8

2 134 5
2,153.2
2 171 0

E>6.94:p

1 362
1.357
1 355

81 11
74.22
45 52

47 75
52.68
d 13

513 8

6.881

518.3,

2 190 7
2,203.8
2,200.3

1 345
1.345
1.348

71.21
59.26
101.14

53 53
21,95
26.83

519 6
524 6
530.9.

2 197 3
2 Onp A
2,227.1

6 801

1 357
1 341
1.333

86 62
66 98
73.73

1 'ipo

58 92
68 39
42.35

0.81
0.85

1 16
1.04

1 04
1 04

•

•

1985

January
February
March

0 79

July
August
September .

0.72
0.87
0.67

0 61
1 18

•

0.91
0.31

0 21
0 72

0 17
0 52

1.44

April
May
June

1 10

1.14
0.51

1.10

0.79

:

:

518. 1 -

0 90
1 44

0- 48
0 77

0.57

0.76

534 6
Rdl ?
546.1

0.44
0.96

October
November
December

0 69
0 78

1.11

.

, 0.36

546.5
548.7.

2 238 3
p pen n

6 671

2,259.4

0.49

0.59
1.00

1 05

0 59

1 03

ccp c

January
February
March

0.10
0.61

0.13
0.30

551.1
556.7

1 17

0 57

0.59
0.49
0.36

April
May
June

1.21

1.15
1.05

0.60
0.82

v*n RD

rO 56

574.0
584 2588.6

r2»329 6
r2,349 9
r2 357 7

596.5
605.7
608.5

r2,381.9
:
- r2,399.8
r2, 406.1

r614.7
E>p623.7

r2,423.7
{H>p2,430.4

1 *}?n
1.318
1.323 ,
1.322.

H

Q7

P7

AG.

-45.89
1 fi RP,
o

fifi

-14.63

125.47
71.12
106 55

65.16
64.68

"3 "3?

6.563 '

1.330
1.333
1.329

-23.17
57.40
43.56

56.50
-51.02
-29.5^

6.354

1..330
1.314
1.304

52.58
30.83

-40.38
21.79
-30.85

r6,i85

rl.293
rl.284
r 1,280

r49.01
r-12.18

rl.273
pi. 270

. r32.33
p'31.27

2,2-59.2
2,257.7
2 262 8

6.590

2,258.3
2,274.1
2,296.8

1

qo on

1986

0)1 95
1 23

July
:
August
September . . . . . . .

1.38
1.72
0.80

October . . . . . , , . , .
November
December
..

pi. 74
Z
1.79

1.17

1.06

0.76

rO.93
rO.61

r-0.69
rO.72

rO.88
pO.55

pO.56
(NA)

ccc c

(NA)

6.19

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32.
Series 102 reached its high value (2.79) in January 1983; series 104 reached its high value (1.31) in January 1983.
2
Average for weeks ended December 2 and 9.

ICCII

DECEMBER

1986




71

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I

CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process

Q MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued

Timing Class

1,1,1

113. Net change
in consumer
installment
credit

Year
and
month

(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)

L, L, L

111. Change in
business and
consumer credit
outstanding

(Ann. rate,
percent)

U,L

78.66
69.41
60.96

14.6
17.3
19.4

74.64
114.13
95.18

19.4
21.5

73.58
80.62
63.04

14.4
12.1
12.3

October
November
December

70.61
71.95
75.31

14.2
13.4

January
February
March

75.16
82.16
99.59

13.2
10.3
13.0

April
May
June

90.52
75.96
52.69

14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures1©

(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

10.0

January
February
March

....

April
May
June

U,L

39. Percent
of consumer
installment
loans delinquent 30 days
and over
(Percent)

interest Rates

L,U,U

L Lgt U

93. Free
reserves ©

94. Member
bank borrowings from the
Federal
Reserve @

(Mil. dot.)

(Mil dol.)

L, Lg, Lg

119. Federal
funds rate ©

(Percent)

C, Lg, Lg

114. Discount
rate on new
issues of 91-day
Treasury bills ©

(Percent)

2

i>21.6

July
August
September

L.L.L

110. Funds
raised by private
nonfinancial
borrowers in
credit markets

Revised

1984

Bank Reserves

Credit Difficulties

Credit Flows— Continued

..

525,300

1,783.3
1,713.1
3,479.7

1.84

(H>1.78
1.85

-102

376
-241

715
567
952

9.56
9.59
9.91

8.93
9.03

9.69
9.90
9.94

9.44

638,700

2,429.4
3,074.3
3,427.4

2.06
1.96
2.02

-2,408
-2,526

1,234
2,988
3,300

10.29
10.32
11.06

456,964

2,783.7
1,968,7
2,045.6

1.96
1.93
2.10

-5,311
D-7,328
-6,614

5,924
i>8,017
7,242

11.23
(Dll.64
11.30

633,416

1,471,3
2,763.7
2,328.4

1.91
1.97
2.09

-5,397
-3,924
-2,333

6,017
4,617
3,186

9.99
9.43
8.38

9,97
8.79
8,16

512,540

1,821.0
2,409.8
3,485.8

2.20
2.19
2.40

-650
-386
-827

1,395
1,289
1,593

8.35
8.50
8.58

7.76
8.22
8.57

9.4
3.7

540,744

p3,279.8
p3,261.9
p2,995.6

2.38
2.25
2.33

-585
-530
-300

1,323
1,334
1,205

8.27
7.97
7.53

8.00
7.56
7.01

9.3
8.5
9.8

591,564

p2,150.5
p3,162,4
pi, 925. 3

2.29
2.35
2.39

-252
-246
-623

,107
,073
,289

7.88
7.90
7.92

7.05
7.18
7.08

D 944, 524

pi, 824. 6
p5,026.9
pi, 707. 8

2.26
2.32
2,32

-434
-813
-260

,187
,741
,318

7.99
8.05
8.27

7.17
7.20
7.07

465,584

p3,590.4
p3,518.2
p2,746.6

2.27
2.29
2.41

341
213
135

770
884
761

8.14
7.86
7.48

7,04
7.03
6.59

571,300

2.44
2.52
2.53

-92
-38
128

893
876
803

6.99
6.85
6.92

6,06
6,12
6.21

2.22
2.33
2.24

169

p634,692

741
872
1,008

6.56
6.17
5,89

5.84
5.57
5.19

5.85
6.04

5.18
5.35

6.21

"5.49

9.2

-742

10.13
H>10.49
10.41

1985

July
August
September
October . .
November
December

81.43
72.61
D123.96
78.70
67.72
77.72

15.6
10.9
11.7

January
February
March

91.86
61.19
37.04

12.6

April
May
June

58.45
77.48
64.63

r3.0

-66. 77

r7.4
r6.5
r4.8

1986

July
August
September
October
November
December

40.72
r92,69
pSl.40
(NA)

3.4
3.8
8.6
3.1

(NA)

r9.4
p6.3

(NA)

-132
-282

-95
p236

841
P 752

3

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 32, 33, and 34.
l

Series 14 reached its high value (829.2) in July 1983.
8ee "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
Average for weeks ended December 3, 10, 17, and 24.
''Average for weeks ended December 4, 11, 18, and 25.
2

3

72



DECEMBER 1986

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class

Year
and
month

Q MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued

Interest Rates— Continued

..

Lg, Lg. Lg

C, Ig, Lg

U, Lg, Lg

116. Yield on
new issues of
high-grade
corporate
bonds 0

115. Yield on
long-term
Treasury
bonds @

117. Yield on
municipal
bonds, 20bond average ©

(Percent)

(Percent)

Outstanding Debt

Lg, Lg, U

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

118. Secondary
market yields
onFHA
mortgages ©

67. Bank rates
on short-term
business
loans ©

109. Average
prime rate
charged by
banks ©

66. Consumer
installment
credit outstanding

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

Lg, Lg, Lg

(Percent)

Lg, Lg, Lg

Lg, Lg, Lg

Commercial and industrial
loans outstanding
72. Current
dollars

101. Constant
(1982) dollars

Lg, Lg, Lg

95. Ratio,
consumer installment credit
outstanding
to personal
income
(Percent)

1984
12.65
12.80
13.36

11.29
11.44
11.90

9.63
9.64
9.93

13.08
13.20
13.68

iiioe

11.00
11.00
11.21

382,794
388,578
393,658

268,086
273,035
282,086

260,531
264,569
271,498

12.75
12.80
12.85

13.64
14.41
E>14.49

12.17
12.89
[R>13.00

9.96
10.49
(0)10.67

13.80
D15.01
14.91

12*.45

11.93
12.39
12.60

399,878
409,389
417,321

289,303
295,758
304,150

278,176
284,110
292,452

13.04
13.33
13.49

July
August
September

14.25
13.54
13.37

12.82
12.23
11.97

10.42
9.99
10.10

14.58
14.21
13.99

E>13!29

13.00
E>13.00
12.97

423,453
430,171
435,424

306,942
308,391
311,769

294,570
297,101
301,809

13.57
13.72
13.77

October
November
December

13.02
12.40
12.47

11.66
11.25
11.21

10.25
10.17
'9.95

13.43
12.90
12.99

11.29

12.58
11.77
11.06

441 ,308
447,304
453,580

315,748
320,138
320,482

305,366
308,716
309,644

13.94
14.04
14.10

January
February
March

12.46
12.39
12.85

11.15
11.35
11.78

9.51
9.65
9.77

13.01
13.27
13.43

io!io

10.61
10.50
10.50

459,843
466,690
474,989

324,947
326,776
329,012

314,262
316,337
319,119

14.25
14.32
14.51

April
May
June

12.45
11.85
11.33

11.42
10.96
10.36

9.42
9.01
8.69

12.97
12.28
11.89

9! 90

10.50
10.31
9.78

482,532
488,862
493,253

330,251
332,539
328,715

319,701
321,294
318,214

14.61
14.87
14.92

July
August
September

11.28
11.61
11.66

10.51
10.59
10.67

8.81
9.08
9.27

12.12
11.99
12.04

9.27

9.50
9.50
9.50

500,039
506,090
516,420

330,097
330,402
329,183

319,861
321,716
322,412

15.08
15.24
15.49

October
November
December

11.51
11.17
10.42

10.56
10.08
9.60

9.08
8.54
8.43

11.87
11.28
10.70

9.68

9.50
9.50
9.50

522,978
528,621
535,098

334,613
340,003
343,244

325,183
328,823
331,317

15.57
15.68
15.66

10.33
9.76
8.95

9.51
9.07
8.13

8.08
7.44
7.08

10.78
10.59
9.77

9.29

9.50
9.50
9.10

8.71
9.09
9.39

7.59
8.02
8.23

7.20
7.54
7.87

9.80
10.07
9.98

siia

8.83
8.50
8.50

E>347,952
343,700
341,238
337,873
339,689
337,118

337,163
337,955
340,217
339,230
339,689
337,455

15.88
15.95
15.99

April
May
June

542,753
547,852
550,939
555,810
562,267
567,653

15.94
16.15
16.30

July
August
September

9.11
9.03
9.28

7.86
7.72
8.08

7.51
7.21
7.11

10.01
9.80
9.90

7i73

8.16
7.90
7.50

573,216
576,609
r584,334

337,634
r341,718
r340,703

r339,672
r344,127
r342,415

r!6.42
r!6.48
16.66

October
November
December

9.29
8.99
1
8.B9

9.80
9.26

7]28

r343,397
r344,430
p346,003 R>p346,696

E>pl6.79
(NA)

January
February
March
April
May
June

1985

1986

January
February
March

8.04
7.81
7.65

L

2

7.08
6.85
6.86

'

3

7.50 E>p59l,117
(NA)
7.50
7.50

See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35.
l
Average for weeks ended December 5, 12, 19, and 26.
2
Average for weeks ended December 4, 11, 18, and 25.
3
Average for December 1 through 26.

DECEMBER 1986



73

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C

I

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

Q DIFFUSION INDEXES
|
950. Twelve leading
. indicator components
(series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19,
20, 29, 32, 36, 99, 106,
UD

Year
and
month

1 -month
span

6-month
span

951. Four roughly
coincident indicator
components (series
41, 47, 51, 57)

952. Six lagging
indicator components
(series 62, 77, 91, 95,
101, 109)

6-month
span

1-month
span

1-month
span

961. Average weekly
hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers,
20 manufacturing
industries

962. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, 51
areas 1

6-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

66.7
66.7
75.0

67.5
85.0

80.0
52.5
42.5

36.3
72.5
70.6
41.2
31.4
92.2

963. Employees on
private nonagricultural
payrolls, 186
industries

1 -month
span

6-month
span

76.5
90.2
56.9

67.8
72.7
67.6

78.1
76.5
77.0

66.7
72.5
36.3

67.6
62.4
65.4

75.1
69.2
65,1

27.5
35.3
13.7

62.2
55.9
50.5

63.2
59.2
58.6

1984

January
February
March
April
May
June

•

100.0

75.0
70.8
62.5

100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

75.0
75.0

25.0
25.0
25.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

83.3
66.7
66.7

,83.;3
83.3
83.3

97.5
15.0
35.0

35.0
50.0
22.5

75.0
87.5
50.0

100,0
100,0
100.0

83.3
75.0
66.7

83.3
66.7
66.7

37.5
42.5
67.5

42.5

' 62.5
100.0

100,0
100.0
100.0

58.3
50.0
66.7

66.7
66.7
58.3

25.0
70.0
60.0

66.7
50.0
58.3

50.0
50.0
66.7

35.0
22.5
85.0

40.0
40.0
47.5

41.7
50.0
33.3

58.3
50.0
50.0

12.5
77.5
77.5

58.3
70.8
50.0

,

75.0

8.3

....

58.3
41,7
25.0

July . . . .
August
..
September .

16.7
37.5
75.0

. 25.0

October
November
December

33.3
70.8
41.7

66.7
58.3
50.0

January
February
March

70.8
50.0
33.3

62.5
50.0
58.3

April
May
June

33.3
70.8
54.2

50.0
58.3
66.7

July"
August
September

62.5
58.3
62.5

83.3
79.2
83.3

50.0

75.0

.41.7

100.0

100.0
100.0

50.0
58.3

58.3
41.7
50.0

October
November . . . . . . .
December

75.0
37.5
75.0

83.3
75.0
45.8

50.0
87.5
87.5

100. 0

91.7
41.7
66.7

January
February . .
March . . . .

62.5
50.0
62.5

62.5
45.8
50.0

75.0
75.0
50.0

100.0

April
May
June

75.0
50.0
54,2

58.3
58.3
66.7

100.0
25.0
37.5

75.0
75.0

100.0

July
August
September .

62.5
41.7
54.2

62.5

r?5.o

,375.0

33.3
29.2

75.0

7.5

7.5

'

7.5

19.6
52.9
76.5

10.0
20.0
17.5

72.5
71.6

33.3
17.6
29.4

63.0
53.5
57.0

53.2
49.7
54.9

11.8
72.5
84.3

33.3
41.2
64.7

52.4
47.8
53.8

49.2
47.8
43.0

55.0
67.5
67.5

19.6
45.1
88.2

64.7
58.8

r68.6

49.2
51.6
47.0

45.9
44.3
44.3

27.5
87.5
65.0

87.5
92.5
97.5

82.4
59.8

64.7
13.7
60.8

56.2
56.8
50.8

48.9
50.8
54.1

58.3
75:0
66.7

75.0
52.5
95.0

75.0
80.0
80.0

r72.5
27.5

64.7
33.3
64.7

61.9
57.6
59.5

57.0
57.0
55.9

75.0
50.0
83.3

50.0
66.7
66.7

22.5
22.5
72.5

80.0
57.5
27.5

56.9
52.9
62.7

49.0
39.2
51.0

59.7
53.5
45.1

53.8
53.8
47.6

16.7
58.3
33.3

33.3
33.3
33.3

45.0
45.0
45.0

60.0

25.5
74.5
56.9

56.9

r30.0
r40.0

r58.8
P69.6

54.1
49.2
46.2

45.9
45.9

r48.6

50,0
33.3
33.3

33.3

"25.0

42.5
90.0

54.6
54.3

r49,7
P55.4

,

5.9

1985

100.0

100.0
100.0

75.0

100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0

;

75.0

50.0

62.5
75.0

50,0

"

100.0
62.5

'

1

7.8

23.5

1986

October
November
December .

2

2

100.0
r62.5

72.7

41.7

72.7

3

75.0
75.0

66.7

75.0

91.7

100.0

"62.5

P85.0

34,3
77.5

(NA)

r57.5

rl9.6

r54.9

r47.5
P87.5

P70.6

r55.7
P60.0

(NA)

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-qudrter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ©, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The. "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 36.
figures are the
Bxclucles series
^Excludes series
''Hxcludes series
2

percent of components declining.
36, for which data are not available.
57, for which data are not available.
77 and 95, for which data are not available.

74



DECEMBER 1986

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Q DIFFUSION INDEXES-Contmued

Year
and
month

964. Manufacturers'
new orders, 34
durable goods industries

965. Newly approved
capital appropriations
in 1982 dollars, 17
manufacturing
industries

1-month
span

9-month
span

1-quarter
span

January
February
March

67.6
50.0
52.9

91.2
79.4
85.3

71

April
May
June

35.3
58.8
26.5

75.0
52.9
41.2

59

July
August
September

55.9
51.5
41.2

44.1
61.8
52.9

42

October
November
December

55.9
55.9
52.9

29.4
55.9
44.1

966. industrial production, 24 industries

65

4-Q moving
average

1 -month
span

6-month
span

967. Spot market
prices, 13 raw
industrial materials ©

1-month
span

968. Stock prices, 500
common stocks1©

1-month
span

9-month
span

9-month
span

960. Net profits,
manufacturing, about
600 companies2©

(4-quarter span)

1984

.

,

95.8
95.8
87.5

38.5
61.5
65.4

73.1
65.4
42.3

52.1
10.6
60,6

41.5
25.5
58.7

*76

*58

91.7
75.0
60,4

70.8
70.8
64.6

50.0
50.0
42.3

34.6
30.8
30.8

43.6

'• 3 6 . 2
36.2

30.4
37.0
37.0

*76

*S9

66.7
45.8
70.8

54.2
54.2
45.8

34.6
46.2
46.2

23.1
15.4
15.4

34.8
93.5
73.9

60.9
54.3
65.2

*68

*54

66.7
43.8
43.8
52.1
50.0
41.7

22.9
43.8
54.2

30.8
57.7
19.2

15.4
19.2
34.6

34.8
78.3
26.1

82.6
76.1
91.3

"68

*50

54.2
62.5
66.7

23.1
38.5
57.7

23.1
23.1
23.1

89.1
93.5
37.0

77.8
73.3
85.6

*70

*54

39.6
56.2
70.8

"si

56.2
58.3
50.0

66.7
72.9
58.3

76.9
38.5
23.1

23.1
38.5
46.2

55.4
66.7
75.6

77.8
82.2
73.3

*'72

60.4
66.7
68.8

38.5
46.2
46.2

38.5
46.2
38.5

76,7
30.0
11.1

75.6
82.2
86.0

*70

*48

54.2
68.8
50.0

75.0
70.8
60.4

42.3
23.1
57.7

53.8

. 53.8
53.8

55.6
88.9
86.7

88.1
92.9
90.5

*70

p43

41.7
70.8
58.3

70.8
39.6
22.9

68.8
47.9
50.0

61.5
38.5
34.6

46.2
50.0
57.7

60.5
81.0
94.0

90.5
90.5
88.1

*70

79.2
37.5
50.0

45.8

r54.2
r54.2

53.8
61.5
65.4

42.3
50.0
50.0

61.9
50.0

'77.4

88.1
90.5
81.0

58.3
68.8

r54.2
p75.0

.

1985

January
February . . . . . . . .
March

52.9
35.3
55.9

45.6
63.2
52.9

50

April , . . ,
May
June

47.1
60.3
61.8

64.7
54.4
50.0

,42

July
August
September

55.9
55.9
45.6

67.6
47.1
61,8

59

October
November
December

57.4
50.0
35.3

52.9
47.1
52.9

53

55.9
44.1
42.6

41.2
44.1
47.1

36

p24

-

1986

January
February . ,
March
April
May
June •. . . :

,32.4

41.2
66.2

64.7

r47.1

July
August
September

50.0
38.2
70.6

p52.9

(NA)

October . . . . . . . . .
November
December

61.8

r44.1
pSO.O

(NA)

50.0
50.0
65.4

r31.3
r58.3
p89.6

3

73.1
61.5

1

50.0
3

65.4

35.7
67.9
42.9

81.0

34.5
76.2

61.5

See note on page 74.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 37.
^ased on 47 industries through June 1984, on 46 industries through April 1985, on 45'industries through December 1985, on 43 industries
through January 1986, and on 42 industries thereafter, Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the
source,
,
'
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc.
3
Based on average for December 2, 9, 16, and 23.

IICII DECEMBER

1986




75

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Q DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued

Year
and
quarter

971. New orders, manufacturing J ©

a. Actual
expenditures
(1-Qspan)

b. Later
projections

c. Early
projections

Actual

Anticipated

973. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade l ©
Actual

Anticipated

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(1-Q span)

(1-Q span)

972. Net profits, manufacturing
and trade 1 ©

Actual

970. Expenditures for new plant and equipment
21 industries

(4-Q span)

1984

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

90.5
61.9
76.2
76.2

66.7

90
86
84
79

88
91
90
88

80
79
74
74

84
86
88
84

85
84
82
80

8A
QQ

61.9
83.3
76.2
38.1

74
74
76
75

82
84
82
80

70
69
70
70

80
81
81
78

76
74
75
74

84
84

35.7
66.7
42.9
85.7

76.2

61.9
71.4
95,2
45.2

57.1
76.2
71.4
52.4

97,6
90.5

47.6
69.0
47.6
66.7

76
76
74

82
83
84
78

70
71
70

78
81
81
78

72
73
74

81
84
83
80

90

90
88

1985

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

61.9
76.2
64.3
59.5

QA
OH

81

1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

19.0
57.1
70.8

N

1987

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

38.1

80

78

82

0
1 DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued

Vo« r

tear
and
quarter

974. Number of employees,
manufacturing and trade 1 @

975. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and trade 1 ®

Actual

Actual

Anticipated

Anticipated

Anticipated

Actual

978. Selling prices, retail
trade 1 ©

977. Selling prices, wholesale
trade 1 ©

976. Selling prices, manufacturing' ©

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

65
63
62
62

62
64
64
62

72
70
70
70

66
70
70
66

74
70
70
68

74
76
76
72

73
69
65
65

72
76
75
72

72
68
70
70

70
74
74
68

60
58
58
59

60
62
59
58

66
63
60
61

64
66
62
58

65
62
61
61

70
70
64
62

64
60
59
60

68
66
66
60

66
63
66
62

65
70
67
62

58
59
60

59
60
59
58

62
61
62

CO
3O

i);7

en

CO

65

60
57

58

62
59

58

62
62

en
bU
62
66

/-o

60

CQ
oy
59

CA
0^

58

1984

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1985

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1986

First quarter .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

ut,

64

od
62

64
64

1987

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

60

60

60

63

64

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those,
indicated b y ® , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on page 38.
^his is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc. Dun £
Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives.

76



DECEMBER 1986

KCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Q SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change
Diffusion index components

1986

April

May

June

July

August

September

Octoberr

November13

961. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS OF PRODUCTION OR NONSUPERVISORY WORKERS, MANUFACTURING '
(Hours)
All manufacturing industries

o

Percent rising of 20 components

40.7

o

40.6

(45)

(45)

40,7

(45)

o

40.6

+

40.8 o

40.8

40.7

(42)

(90)

(58)

(48)

40.1 +

40.3
39.8

+
+

40.6
40.0

42.2
42.3

+

42.0
42.5

+

40,9
(88)

Durable goods industries:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures

+

Stone, clay and glass products
Primary metal industries ,

+

Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical

+

40.3
39.1

40.3
39.4

42.4
41.3
+

42.3
41.7

41.2
41.8

41.1
41.8

o

o

o

39.9
39.4

+
o

40.1 +
39.4 +

40.2
39.9

42.2
41.6

o
+

o

42.2
41.3

+
+

42.5
41.9

o

42.5

+

r42.0

41.1 o
41.7

41.1 +
41.4
+

41.2
41.7

+
o

41.5
41.7

41.2
41.6

+
+

41.5
41.7

+

41.1 +
42.1 +

41.2
42.6

o
o

r41.2
42.6

41.0
42.0

o
+

41.0
42.4

40.8
38.8

+
+

41.0
39.2 +

r39.6

+
+

41.0
39.9

+
+

41.2
40.6

40.0
35.9

+
+

40.3
36.2

r38.5

+
+

39.8
39.0

+

+

40.0
38.2

r41.6
36.7

41.5
36.6

+
+

41.7
36.8

o
o

43.0
38.0

+
+

43.2
38.1

r43.4

o
+

42.0
46.5

+
+

42.7
46.7

+
+

41.6
37.5

+

Electric and electronic equipment
Transportation equipment

+

41.1
42.1

41.0
41.9

o
+

41.0
42.2

Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing

o

41.3
39.7

40.9
39.4

+
+

41.0
39.6

40.2
37.7

40.0
38.3

o

+

41.1
36.5

40.8
36.5

+
+

40.9
36.6

+

o

41.4
36.5

+
+
o

r40.0

40.7

+

Nondurable goods industries;
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufacturers

+

Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products

+
+

41.3
36.9

Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing .

o

43.0
38.0

+
o

43.2
38.0

43.1
37.8

+
+

43.2
37.9

+
+

43.5
38.0

41.9
43.6

+

42.0
43.4 +

41.9
44.0

o

41.9
43.5

+
+

42.1
44.3

41.1
36.3

+
+

+
+

41.3
37.7

40.5
37.0

+

41.2
36.7

+
+

r41.6
36.8

+

41.4
36.9

103,845

+

108,723

-

103,569

Chemicals and allied products . ...
Petroleum and coal products
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products
Leather and leather products

o

o

40.2
36.6

o
+

41.2
36.7

39.7

r43.0

38.0
42.0

964. MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES ' 2
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries

-

Percent rising of 34 components

103,747

-

+

9,625
14,653

Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery

+
-

16,800
15,467

Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries

+

26,497
20,705

+

(32)

(62)

Primary metals
Fabricated metal products

102,624

8,831

102,730

(65)

+
+

14,024

+
-

9,323
13,998

16,441
14,650

-

+

+
+

16,888
17,913

27,933
20,745

+

23,531
21,077

106,220

-

(38)

(50)

(44)

(71)

9,713

(50)

10,245
13,702

+

9,842
14,051

+

14,217

+

9,412
14,388

-

16,603
15,952

+

16,523
17,672

-

15,231
17,083

+
-

17,170
16,974

+

26,704
20,639

+
+

28,964
21,671

-

26,115
21,210

+
+

30,258
21,474

9,060
13,993

+

+

17,233
16,953

+

28,359
20,622

o

+ 109,676

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) - rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) - falling.
The "r" indicates revised; "p",
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
*Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data for most of the diffusion index components are not available for publication, but they are included in the totals and directions of
change for the six major industry groups shown here.

IICII DECEMBER

1986




77

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

^Q SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued
1986

Diffusion index components

May

April
966.

+

June

Percent rising of 24 components *

October r

September1"

November^

INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION '
(1977-100)

124.7

124.2

(79)

All industrial production

August1"

July

(38)

o

124.2

+

(50)

124.9

+

(58)

125.1 o
(69)

125.1 +

125.2

+

125.9

(58)

(90)

(NA)

(31)

(NA)
(NA)

Durable manufactures:
Lumber and products
Furniture and fixtures

+
+

121.3
145.9

Clay, glass, and stone products
Primary metals

+
+

121.6
78.1

Fabricated metal products
Nonelectrical machinery

+

108.2
140.8

Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment

;

+
+

12U 6
146.2

120.2
74.8

+

120.9
14.7.1

+

120.8
149.5

+

+

+

120.8
71.4

119.6

+

+

73.6

106.6
140.4

+

105.7
142.6

+
o

- 163.2 +
+ 125.1 +

166.8
125.6
141.7

106.5
+
141.3

122.5
148.3
119.7

148.0

121.6

119.0

74.0

73.8

105.9
142.6

+

107.2
140.9

+
+

+

167.2
125.1

o
+

167.2
127.7

+
+

142.0

97.5

134.3

+

135.1

166.8
126.2

166.0
124.1

+
+

142.4
99.2 +

140. 3
101.. 0

Foods
Tobacco products

+
+

133.1 .+ 133.7
100.3 + 101.6

+ 134.6
97.6 +

Textile mill products
Apparel products

+
+

111.4
103.1

+

112.6 +
101.7 +

113.4
102.5

+
o

114.7
102.5

Paper and products
Printing and publishing

+
+

134.1
161.6 +

133.2
+
161.9 +

137.2 +
164.0 +

138.1 +
165.4

Chemicals and products
Petroleum products

+
+

132.8
91.3 +

139.9
98.3

+

+
+

73.4

+
+

Instruments
Miscellaneous manufactures

(NA)

147.9

+

+

(NA)
75.0

107.9
142.0

+
+

108.0
142.8

+

167.6
125.1

+
+

168.9
125.6

140.8

o

140.8

+

99.9

141.7

98.3

98.1

(NA)

Nondurable manufactures:

Rubber and plastics products
Leather and products

146.8
61.5

111.3
102.6

+

131.5
95.7

+

150:. 1

+

59.5

134.4

133.3

+

97.2

+
+

116.0
102.7

+
+

138.6
164.6

137.2
162.9

+
+

137.5
167.0

+
+

134.4

133.9

133.5

94.0

93.3

92.0

152.2 + • 155.5
57.9
+
61.9

o
+

155.5

155.1

62.0

60.9

+
+

70.9

(NA)

(NA)

122.2

120.8

116.1

+

114.8

(NA)
(NA)

116.9
103.5

134.2
91.8

97.9

134.1
90.6

97.1

(NA)

+

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

+

156.4
59.8

167.8
(NA)
91.3
(NA)
(NA)

Mining:
Metal mining
Coal , .
OH and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals

+

+

76.0
124.4

72.0
124.0

+

65.9
127.3

96.2
115.0

95.1
112.4

+

93.3
114.5

+

69.2

120.2
92.4

111.8

90.7

90.2

110.7

90.0

+

,112.8

(NA)
(NA)
88.2
(NA)

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) - rising, (o) - unchanged, and (-) - falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p"
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
A
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.

78



DECEMBER 1986

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

^J SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued
Diffusion index components

1986

April

June

May

August

July

967. INDEX OF SPOT MARKET PRICES, RAW INDUSTRIALS
Raw 'industrials price index (1967 = 100) . . . . '

- 219.9

Percent rising of 13 components . . . .'.;

(54)

+

221.3

+

(62)

225;0

+

(65)

227.6

-

November

October

December 1

2

212.0

(50)

September

+

(50)

221.2

+

(65)

235.5

+

(73)

243.7

+

(62)

246.9
(62)

Dollars
Copper scrap

;,

-

(pound) . .
(kilogram) , .

-

v. .

(pound) , .
(kilogram),.

+ o-.iio

(U.S. ton). .
{metric t o n ) . .

Tin
Zinc

...
.

.

Cotton

,.:

Print cloth
Wool tops , ,

-

0.428
0.944

-

0.416
0.917

+

0.444
0.979

-

0.431
0.950

-

0,429
0.946

+

0,114
0.251

+

0.126
0.278

+

0.130
0.287

-

0.126
0.278

+

0.138
0.304

+

0.153
0.337

+

0.243

0.173
0.381

+ • 0.176
0.388

- 74.400
82.011

- 71.500
78.814

- 70.000
77.161

o 70.000
77.161

+ 74.750
- 72.600
82.397 '
80.027

- 71.500
78.814

- 71.000
78.263

o 71.000
78.263

-

3.284
7.240

-

3.115
6.867

-

3.060
6.746

-

3.056
6.737

+

3.068
6.764

- • 3.052
6.728

+

3.138
6,918

+

3.430
7.562

+

3.632
8.007

(pound)
(kilogram)..

-

0.339
0.747

+

0.354
0.780

+

0.395
0.871

+

0.430
0.948

+

0.444
0,979

+

0.453
0.999

+

0.481
1.060

+

0.489
1.078

-

0.450
0.992

+

0.231
0.253

+

0.240
0.262

+

0.247
0.270

-

0.242
0.265

-

0.229
0.250 '

0.220
0.241

-

0.217
0,237

+

0.218
0.238

+

0.226
0.247

(pound) . .
(kilogram) . .

....

0.466
1.027

(yard)
(meter)..

,/.,,:

+

(pound) '. ,
(kilogram). .

Steel scrap , , . . :

0.464
1.023

+

0.639
1.409

+

0.656
1.446

+

0.669
1.475

-

0.666
1.468

-

0.267
0.589

+

0.336
0.741

'+

0.442
0.974

+

0.457
1.008

+

0.533
1.175

(yard)
(meter):..

Lead scrap

Burlap

+

0.648
0.709

+

0.690
0.755

+

0.702
0.768

+

0.712
0.779/

-

0.700
0.766

+

0.760
0.831

+

0.868
0.949

+

1.035
1.132

-

0.910
0.995

o

3.000
6.614

o

3.000
6.614

•*•

3.200
7.055

o

3.200
7.055

+

3.275
7.220

+

3.300
7.275

+
•

3.805
8.389

+

3.980
8.774

+

4.000
8.818

+

0.729
1.607

+

0. 786
1.733

-

0,785
1.731

-

0.784
1-728

-

0.768
1.693

-

0.745
1.642

+

0.760
1.675

-

0.752
1.658

-

0.719
1.585

(pound) . .
(kilogram)..

Hides

(pound)
(kilogram) . ,

Rosin

(100 pounds) . .
(100 kilograms).,,

• Rubber

0.488 • 1.076

[. . . , . ,

, Tallow . . . . . :,

.

+

3

o 50.000
110.230

o 50.000
110.230

o 50.000
110.230

o 50.000,
110.230

o 50.000
o 50.000
110.230 - 110.230

(pound) . .
(kilogram)..,

-

0.392
0.864

+

0.401
0.884

+

0.408
0.899

+

0.434
0,957

+'

0.435
•0.959

+

.(pound)..-,
(kilogram,). .

+

0.108
0.238

-

0.100
0.220

-

0.087
0.192

+

0.097
0.214

+

0.098
0.216

+

0.441
0.972

o 50.000
110.230

o 50.000
110.230

o 50.000
110.230

0.451
0.994

+

0.468
1.032

-

0.448
0.988

-

0.446
0.983

0.112
0.247

+

0.123
0.271

o

0.123
0.271

+

0.140
0.309

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ('+') = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( — ) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p"
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
,
*The index is the average for December 1 through 23; component prices are averages for December 2, 9, 16, and 23.
Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without
written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
3
Data beginning August 1, 1986, reflect a change in the domestic Federal price support for cotton.

DECEMBER 1986




79

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME
Year
and
quarter

b. Difference

a. Total

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

217. Per capita
gross national
product in 1982
dollars

50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars

200, Gross national product in current dollars

a. Total

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

b. Difference
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol,)

c. Percent
change at
annual rate

(Ana rate,
dollars)

213. Final sates
in 1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1983

3,265.8
3,367.4
3,443,9
3,545.8

53.3
101.6
76.5
101.9

6.8
13.0
9.4
12.4

3,186.6
3,258.3
3,306.4
3,365.1

27.3
71.7
48,1
58.7

3.5
9.3
6.0
7,3

13,619
13,894
14,063
14,277

3,228.9
3,267.6
3,307.4
3,338.1

3,670.9
3,743,8
3,799.7
3,845.6

125.1
72.9
55.9
45.9

14.9
8.2
6.1
4.9

3,444.7
3,487.1
3,507.4
3,520.4

79.6
42,4
20.3
13.0

9.8
5.0
2.3
1.5

14,582
14,730
14,778
14,795

3,359.6
3,430.0
3,446.8
3,486.4

3,909.3
3,965.0
4,030.5
4,087.7

63.7
55.7
65.5
57.2

6.8
5.8
6.8
5.8

3,547.0
3,567.6
3,603.8
3,622,3

26.6
20.6
36.2
18.5

3.1
2.3
4.1
2.1

14,874
14,928
15,041
15,080

3,523.9
3,550.2
3,603.1
3,627.5

4,149.2
4,175.6

61.5
26.4

r4,240.7

First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

r65.1

6.2
2.6
6.4

3,655.9
3,661.4
r3,686.4

33.6
5.5

3.8
0.6
r2,8

15,188
15,179
r!5,246

3,616.1
3,646.3
r3,686.7

1984
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

1985
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter ,
Fourth quarter

1986
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

r25.0

GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME-Continued
Year
and
Quarter

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
230. Total in current
dollars

Disposable personal income
224. Current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

225. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

231. Total in 1982
dollars

232. Durable goods
in current dollars

233. Durable goods
in 1982 dollars

227. Per capita in
1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1983
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

2,345.7
2,395.4
2,443,2
2,527.9

2,288.4
2,311.1
2,335.4
2,392.7

9,780
9,855
9,933
10,151

2,146.6
2,213.0
2,262.8
2,315.8

2,094.2
2,135.1
2,163.0
2,191.9

266.7
284.5
295.2
310.0

263.3
280.0
288.5
300.5

2,612.7
2,646.3
2,693.8
2,729.6

2,446,9
2,460.3
2,481.9
2,493.1

10,358
10,392
10,457
10,477

2,363.8
2,416.1
2,445.6
2,487.2

2,213.8
2,246.3
2,253.3
2,271.7

321.2
331.3
331.8
340.4

311.1
319.0
318.8
326.8

2,755.4
2,842.3
2,832.0
2,882.2

2,495.7
2,550.8
2,524.7
2,540.7

10,466
10,674
10,537
10,577

2,530.9
2,576.0
2,627.1
2,667.9

2,292.3
2,311.9
2,342.0
2,351.7

347.7
354.0
373.3
362.0

332.3
338.8
357.4
347.0

2,935.1
2,978.5
r2,979.9

2,581.2
2,625.8
r2,605.5

10,723
10,886
rlO,776

2,697.9
2», 732.0
r2,799.8

2,372,7
2,408.4
r2,448.0

360.8
373.9
r414.5

345.4
357.1
r391.6

1984
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter ,
Fourth quarter

1985
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

1986
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by <u), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 41.




DECEMBER 1986

ICO

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Ml
Year
and
quarter

236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES-Continued
238. Nondurable
goods in 1982
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Q GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT

237. Services in
current dollars

239. Services in
1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

240. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

241. Total in
1982 dollars

242. Fixed investment in current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

243. Fixed investment in 1982
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1983

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

791.0
810.9
827.0
837.9

786.3
795.7
806.2
812.7

1,088.9
1,117.6
1,140.6
1,167.9

1,044.6
1,059.4
1,068.3
1,078.6

428.3
481.3
519.7
579.8

427.1
486.9
524.8
577.2

471.0
492.5
525.2
548.8

469.4
496.2
525.8
550.3

855.7
870.3
873.9
880,3

819.7
832.8
831.7
830.5

1,186.9
1,214.5
1,239.9
1,266.5

1,083.0
1,094.6
1,102.8
1,114.4

659.5
657.5
670.3
661.1

649.3
649.7
658.9
649.9

564.0
597.6
605.8
624.4

564.1
592.7
598.3
615.9

888.2
902.3
907.4
922.6

834.3
841.3
843.8
847.2

1,294.9
1,319.7
1,346.4
1,383.2

1,125.8
1,131.8
1,140.8
1,157.5

650.6
667.1
657.4
669.5

638.2
655.6
643.8
653.2

625.2
648.0
654.3
672.6

615.0
638.1
643.1
658.4

929.7
928.4
r932.8

860.6
877.3
r875.4

1,407.4
1,429.8
rl,452.4

1,166.6
1,174.0
rl, 181.0

708.3
687.3
r675.8

684.0
664.7
r651.3

664.4
672.8
r680.3

644.1
649.6
r651.6

1984

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

'

1985

.First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

H

GROSS PRIVATE
DOMESTIC INVEST.-Con.

245. Change in
business inventories in current
dollars

30. Change in
business inventories in 1982
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Year
and
quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

^M GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
260. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

261. Total in
1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

262. Federal
Government in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

263. Federal
Government in
1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

266. State and
local government
in current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

267. State and
local government
in 1982 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1983

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

-42.6
-11.2
-5.5
31.0

-42.3
-9.3
-1.0
27.0

668.1
675.2
680.7
676.1

649.2
650.9
653.6
642.2

285.5
287.7
284.9
276.1

278.2
278.5
277.6
266.0

382.7
387.5
395.8
400.0

371.0
372.4
376.0
376.2

95.5
59.9
64.4
36.7

85.1
57.0
60.6
33.9

693.2
733.3
743.8
763.4

650.2
678.2
681.0
691.5

283,4
315.2
317.2
329.1

271.2
296.3
295.6
303.8

409.8
418.1
426.6
434.3

379.0
381.8
385.4
387.7

25.4
19.1
3.1
-3.1

23.2
17.4
0.7
-5.2

777.3
799.0
829.7
855.6

695.3
708.3
731.8
749.4

333.7
340.9
360.9
380.9

305.8
311.4
329.9
347.2

443.5
458.1
468.8
474.7

389.5
396.9
401.9
402.2

43.8
14.5
r-4.5

39.9
15.1
r-0.3

836.7
860.8
r874.0

725.2
742.2
r750.4

355.7
367.6
r369.3

320.4
328.9
r330.9

480.9
493.3
r504.7

404.8
413.3
r419.5

1984

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1985

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
fourth quarter . . . .
1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 41, 42, and 43.

IICII

DECEMBER 1986




81

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

H

Qj FOREIGN TRADE

Net exports of goods and services

Year
and
quarter

252. Current
dollars

255. Constant
(1982) dollars

250. Current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)

280. Compensation of
employees

257. Constant
(1982) dollars

253. Current
dollars

256. Constant
(1982) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

220. National income in current
dollars

Imports of goods and services

Exports of goods and services

NATIONAL INCOME
AND ITS COMPONENTS

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1983

-19.3
-25.8

-14.6
-35.0
-46.2

343.6
344.1
357.7
364.7

342.5
341.7
352.8
355.5

320.9
346.2
376.9
390.5

326.4
356.3
387.8
401.6

2,599.1
2,685.5
2,741,8
2,851.5

1,958.8
1,995.0
2,036.3
2,092.7

-45.6
-63.2
-60.0
-66.1

-68.6
-87.2
-85.7
-92.7

373.4
382.1
389.2
386.2

361.3
367.0
375.5
375.0

419.0
445.3
449.1
452.2

429.9
454.2
461.2
467.7

2,963.2
3,010.3
3,052.3
3,102.0

2,153.7
2,195.4
2,234.7
2,275.0

. .
....
..
....

-49.4
-77.1
-83.7
-105.3

-78.8
-108.1
-113.8
-132.0

378.4
370.0
362.3
368.2

369.4
361,2
355.8
362.9

427.9
447.1
446.0
473.6

448.2
469.3
469.6
494.8

3,157.0
3,201.4
3,243.4
3,287.3

2,316.3
2,352.1
2,380.9
2,423.6

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

-93.7
-104.5
r- 108.9

-125.9
-153.9
r-163.3

374.8
363.0
r370.8

369.2
359.8
r371.2

468.5
467.5
r479.7

495.1
513.6
r534.5

3,340.7
3,376.4
r3, 396.1

2,461.5
2,480.2
i"2,5G7,4

22.7
-2.1

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

16.1

1984

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1985

First quarter .
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter
1986

i
1

Year
and
quarter

282. Proprietors'
income with IVA
andCCAdj 1

(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)

Qj SAVING

NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS-Continued
284. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj1

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

286. Corporate
profits before tax
with IVA and
CCAdj 1

288. Net interest

290. Gross saving

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

295. Business
saving

292. Personal
saving

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1983

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

183.9
192.3
179.5
207.8

13.8
15.4
11.2
12.4

170.6
207.0
228.9
248.5

272.1
275.8
285.9
290.2

424.2
448.2
462.3
519.9

433.9
453.0
472.0
487.3

139.5
121.1
116.4
145.4

242.5
229.6
234.6
240.7

12.1

8.4
7.1
5,6

262.5
271.7
259.8
265.0

292.5
305,2
316.1
315.7

580.7
568.7
578.2
565.5

489.0
505.0
510.0
520,3

179.2
157.6
172.9
165.0

250.7
255.5
249.3
262.1

6.8
8.1
7.3
8.3

266.4
274.3
296.3
285.6

316.8
311.4
309.7
307.6

573.2
566.8
541.7
524.1

525.6
538.9
560.1
553.5

144.1
183.6
119.6
125.8

265.3
289.1
r277.5

r!6.2

296.4
293.1
r302.0

304.9
297.7
r292.9

583.2
539.7
r517.1

r562.6
r559.9
r566.4

145.6
153.1
r84,l

1984

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1985

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

12.8
16.3

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46.
1
IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.

82




DECEMBER

1986

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Q SAVING-Contmued

Year
and
quarter

QIJ SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME

293. Personal
saving rate

298. Government
surplus or deficit

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Percent of gross national product
235. Personal consumption expenditures
(Percent)

(Percent)

248. Nonresidential
fixed investment
(Percent)

249. Residential
fixed investment

247. Change in
business inventories

(Percent)

(Percent)

251. Net exports of
goods and services
(Percent)

1983

-149.2
-126.0
-126.2
-112.9

5.9
5.1
4.8
5.8

65.7
65.7
65.7
65.3

10.4
10.2
10.4
10.8

4.0
4.4
4.9
4,7

-87.5
-93.9
-104.8
-119.9

6.9
6.0
6.4
6.0

64.4
64.5
64.4
64.7

10.6
11.0
11.1
11.5

-96.6
-155.6
-138.0
-155.1

5.2
6.5
4.2
4.4

64,7
65.0
65.2
65.3

r-125,1
r-173.3
r-133.3

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

5.0
5.1

-1.3
-0.3
-0.2

0.7

0.9

-0.1
-0.6
-0.7

4.8
4.9
4.8
4.7

2.6
1.6
1.7
1.0

-1.2
-1.7
-1,6
-1.7

11.3
11.6
11.4
11.6

4.7
4.8
4.8
4.9

0.6
0.5
0,1
-0.1

-1.3
-1.9
-2.1
-2.6

65.0
65.4

11.1
11.0

r66.0

rlO.8

4.9
5.2
5.2

1.1
0.3
r-0.1

-2.3
-2.5
-2.6

1984

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1985

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1986

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . ; .

r2.8

Q SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME -Continued
|
Year
and
quarter

Percent of GNP— Continued
265. Federal Government purchases of
goods and services
(Percent)

1983

Percent of national income

268. State and local
government purchases
of goods and services
(Percent)

64. Compensation of
employees
(Percent)

283. Proprietors'
income with IVA
andCCAdj 1
(Percent)

285. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj 1
(Percent)

287. Corporate profits
before tax with
IVA and CCAdj 1
(Percent)

289. Net interest

(Percent)

0

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

8.7
8.5
8.3
7.8

11.7
11.5
11.5
11.3

75.4
74.3
74.3
73,4

7.1
7.2
6.5
7.3

0.5
0.6
0.4
0.4

6.6
7,7
8.3
8.7

10.5
10.3
10.4
10.2

7.7
8.4
8.3
8.6

11.2
11.2
11.2
11.3

72.7
72.9
73.2
73.3

8.2
7.6
7.7
7.8

0.4
0.3
0.2
0.2 ,

8.9
9.0
8.5
8.5

10.1
10.4
10.2

8.5
8.6
9.0
9.3

11.3
11.6
11.6
11.6

73.4
73.5
73.4
73.7

7.9
8.0
7.7
8.0

0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3

8.4
8.6
9.1
8.7

8.6
8.8

11.6
11.8
11.9

73.7
73.5
73.8

7.9
8.6
8.2

0.4
0.5
0.5

8.9
8.7
r8.9

1984

First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

9.9

1985

- First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

10.0

9.7
9.5
9.4

1986

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .

r8.7

9.1
8.8
r8.6

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
1
1VA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.

DECEMBER 1986




83

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

m PRICE MOVEMENTS
Implicit price deflator for
gross national product
Year
and
month

310. Index

(1982-100)

Consumer price index
for all urban consumers

Fixed-weighted price index,
gross domestic business product

310c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

311. Index

(1982=100)

31 Ic. Change
over 1-quarter
spans '

(Ann. rate,
percent)

320. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

320c. Change
over 1-month
spans'

(Percent)

Consumer price index for
all urban consumers, food

320c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

322. Index

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967-100)

322c. Change
over 1-month
spans 1

(Percent)

322c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1984

4.6

January
February
March

106*.6

April
May
June

107^4

July
August
September

108*. 3

October
November
December

109 '.2

305.2
306.6
307.3

0.6
0.4
0.3

4.6
4.3
4.2

299.7
300.9
301.2

308.8
309.7
310.7

0.4
0.2
0.3

3.6
3.7
3.9

301.5
300.9
301.9

3.4

311.7
313.0
314.5

0.3
0.4
0.4

3.7
3.8
3.8

3.5

315.3
315.3
315.5

0.3
0.2
0.3

3.4

316.1
317.4
318.8

3.4

4,0

106.3
3.0

3.4

0.1

5.1
4.4
4.1

0.3

2.1
2.5
2.5

302.8
304.7
304.9

0.3
0.6
0.1

2.9
3.6
3.5

3.5
3.3
3.5

305.8
306.2
307.2

0.3
0.1
0.3

3.3
2.3
2.4

0.2
0.3
0.5

3.6
3.6
3.6

307.7
308.2
308.6

0.2
0.2
0.1

1.9
1.4
1.2

320.1
321.3
322.3

0.3
0.2
0.2

3.6
3.4
2.8

308.7
308.4
309.1

0.0
0.2

1.0
0.9
1.4

2.5

322.8
323.5
324.5

0.2
0.2
0.2

2.9
3.6
3.8

309.2
309.6
310.7

0,0
0.1
0.4

1.6
3.1
4.0

3.6

325.5
326.6
327.4

0.4
0.6
0.4

4.1
2.9
1.6

311.1
313.2
315.2

0.1
0.7
0.6

4.4
2.7
2.2

2.1

328.4
327.5
326.0

0.3

315.9
313.8
314.1

0,2
0.1

2.5
2.1
1.0

315.0
316.4
316.7

0.3
0.4
0.1

2.3
5.6
6.3

319.5
322.5
323.9

0.9
0.9
0,4

6.4
6.6

325.0
326.7

0.3
0.5

107^2

3.4

1.3
0.4
0.1

108*. i

3.4

109!i

-0.2

1985

January
February
March

... ,

no'. 2

April
May
June

ni'.i

July
August
September

3.7

111.8

October
November
December

nolb

3.3

11CK9
2.5

ni'.e

3.6
. ..

112'.8

112.6

-0.1

1986

January
February
March

2.5
llV.5

113.2
1.8

April
May
Jung

11416

July
August
September

ll's.Q

October
November
December

1.2

11315
3.6

r2.3

rllV.2

325.3
326.3
327.9

0.3
-0.4
-0.4

-0.4
-0.2

-0.3

-0.8

0.2
0.5

0.3
1.8

328.0
328.6
330.2

0.0
0.2
0.3

2.7
2.9

330.5
330.8

0.2
0.3

-0,7

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49.
*Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and
1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter.

84



DECEMBER 1986

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B 1 PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Q PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued
|
Producer price index, all commodities
Year
and
month

330. Index ©

330c. Change
over 1-month
spans1 ©

(1967 = 100)

(Percent)

Producer price index, crude materials
for further processing

Producer price index, industrial commodities

330c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1 ©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

335. Index ©

, (1967 = 100)

335c. Change
over 1-month
spans' ©

(Percent)

335c. Change
over 6-month
spans'©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

331. Index

(1967 = 100)

331c. Change
over 1-month
spans'

(Percent)

331c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1984

....

308.0
308.9
311.0

0.6
0.3
0.7

3.5
4.0
3.4

319.1
320.6
321.9

0.2
0.5
0.4

2.6
3.1
3.4

335.4
329.5
337.1

-1.8

0.1
0.1

2.5
1,2

-0.1

-1,1

322.6
323.2
323.8

0.2
0.2
0.2

3.0
1.7
0.2

335.5
333.9
330.8

-0.5
-0.5
-0.9

-1.7

....

311.3
311.5
311.3

July
August
September

311.9
310.7
309.3

-1.2
-0.8
-1.0

323.9
323.3
322.2

0.0
-0.2
-0.3

0.5
0.4

332.5
329.5
328.1

0.5

-0.4
-0.5

-0.9
-0.4

-6.6
-4.1
-3.2

October
November
December

309,4
310.3
309.8

-0.2

-1.5
-1.0
-0.5

323.4
323.8
323.0

-0.2

January
February
March

309.5
309.1
308.6

-0.1
-0.1
-0.2

-0.1
-0.3
-0.4

322.9
322.2
322.5

April
May
June

309.3
309.8
309.2

0.2
0.2
-0.2

-0.3
-1.2
-2.0

323.8
325.3
324.8

-0.2

-0.1

July
August
September

309.0
307.3
305.5

-0.1
-0.6
-0.6

-0.9
-0.2

324.4
323.7
322.3

-0.1
-0.2
-0.4

-0.4

0.6

October
November
December

307.9
309,5
310.2

-0.1
-1.9
-3.4

324.2
324.7
325.1

-0.4
-1.5
-1.3

-6.2
-6.5
-7.1

323.8
318.9
314.0

-0.7

r-7.3

January
February
March
April
May
June

.. .

0.2

0.0
0.3

0.4
0.1

-0.5

1.2
2.3

-1.2

0.2

324.3
326.9
325.4

0.1

0.2
0.9
1.1

0.4
0.5

0.9
0.9

-0.6
-0,7

3.6
3.7
-0.3

0.0
-5.3

0.8

-6.9
-8.5

-0.5

-10.2

320.8
315.2
311.0

-1.4
-1.7
-1.3

-10.2
-12.6
-12.8

307.3
305.6
303.8

-1.2
-0.6
-0.6

-10.8
-11.8
-11.2

303.0
296.1
293.1

-0.3
-2,3
-1,0

-3.3

0.2
-0.4
-2.9
-5.1

302.2
308.0
307.0

-0.3

-0.1
-6.3
-8.6

-0.4
-1.5
-1.5

-7.6
-7.9
-8.0

302.9
286.6
280.2

-1.3
-5.4
-2.2

-19.8
-19.5
-19.8

311.6
311.6
311.8

-0.8

-9.2
-6.9
-3.3

270.7
276.4
275.0

-3.4

r-17.0

308.5
307.7
308.8

-1.1
-0.3

-1.5
-1.2

r276.0
275.9
277.3

rO.4
rO.O

1985

0.8
0.5
0.2

0.0
-0.2

0.6
0.2
0.1

0.2

3.1
1.9

1.6
2.1

1986

January
February
March

308.9
304.4
300.3

April
May
June

298.2
299.2
299.0

-0.1

July
August
September

r297.4
297.2
297.7

r-0.5
r-0.1
0.2

October
November
December

298.3
298.7

0.2
0.1

-

0.3

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
Changes are centered within the spans:

DECEMBER 1986




.

-4.7
-1.7

0.1
-0,3

309.3
309.8

0.0
0.1

0.4
0.2,

0.2

281.8
281.9

2.1
-0.5

-7.3
-2.1

8.4
4.0

0.5
1.6
0.0

1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.

85

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued

Q PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued
|
Producer price index, intermediate
materials, supplies, and components
Year
and
month

332. Index

332c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

332c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

(1967-100)

Producer price index, capital equipment

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Percent)

333. Index

(1967 = 100)

333c. Change
over 1-month
spans1

(Percent)

Producer price index, finished consumer goods

333c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

334. Index

(1967 = 100)

334c. Change
over 1-month
spans '

334c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1984

January
February
March

317.1
317.9
319.7

April
May
June

. . . .

July
August
September

....

October
November
December

0.3
0.3
0.6

2.7
3.2
3.2

291.0
291.7
292.3

320.2
320.9
321.3

0.2
0.2
0.1

2.4
1.6
0.2

294.3
293.6
293,8

0.1

-0.6

294.5
295.0
295.8

-0.3
-0.9
-0.9

295.0
295.9
295.6

-0.7
-0.4
-1.2

296.8
298.6
299.3

-1.6
-1.0
-0.9
-1.1
-0.9

320.9
320.4
320.0

-0.1
-0.2
-0.1

320.4
320.7
320.4

-0.1

320.4
319.0
318.6

-o.r

-0.4
-0.1

0.1
0.1

0.3
0.2
0.2

3.7
2.9
2.5

288.6
289.3
290.7

0.7
0.1

2.4
2.3
2.4

290.8
290.7
290.5

-0.1

0.2
0.2
0.3

0.5
1.6
1.2

291.0
290.3
290.0

-0.2
-0,1

1.6
2.5
2.4

290.0
290.8
291.1

0.4
0.6
0.2

3.1
2.8
3.3

290.5
290.0
289.9

-0.2
-0.2

0.0

1.3
1.2
0.3

299.6
300.0
300.4

0.1
0.1
0.1

2.6
1.8
0.3

291.9
292,6
291.6

0.7
0.2

1.4
0.8

-0.3

300.7
301.3
299.7

0.1
0.2

2.1
2.3
2.3

292.5
291.2
289.6

-0.4
-0.5

1.7
1.6
3.1

292.1
294.5
296.7

0.1
0.2

1.7
1.3
1.5

294.1
287.8
284.1

-0.9
-2.1
-1.3

-6.9
-7.2
-8.4

r-8.4

-0.2

-0.3

0.3
-0.1

0.8
0.2
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.2

0.0
0.3
0.1

3.0
3.7
2.9
1.7
0.7
-0.5
-0.5

0.1
0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1

1985

January
February
March

... .

0.0

April
May
June

319.3
320.0
318.5

-0.5

July
August
September

317.8
317.4
317.2

-0.2
-0,1
-0.1

. .

October
November
December

317.5
318.6
319.9

0.2
0.2

0.9

0.1
0.3
0.4

0.4
-2.3
-4.4

302.7
303.4
303.8

-0.5

1.0
0.2
0.1

0.3

0.9
0.8
0.7

-0.2

0.1
1.3
3.5
1.1
-2.3
-3.8

1986

January
February
March

318.4
313.8
310.1

-0.5
-1.4
-1.2

-6.4
-7.6
-8.4

303.3
303.7
304.3

April
May
June

307.1
306,2
306.1

-1.0
-0.3

r-8.7

305.3
305.4
306.0

0.3
0.0
0.2

2.0
1.9
2.2

281.9
283.7
283.9

-0.8

July
August
September

r304.2
304.2
305.8

-0.6
rO.O

306.3
306.6
307.7

0.1
0.1
0.4

2.6
3.1

r281.5
282.9
284.1

r-0.8

October
November
December

304.9
305.4

-0,3

309.2
310.1

0.5
0.3

0.0

0.5
0.2

-6.0
-2.8
-1.4
-0.5

-0.2

285.0
285.4

0.6
0.1
rO.5

-3.4

0.0
2.2
1.2

0.4
0.3
0,1

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.

Changes are centered within the spans:




1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.

DECEMBER 1986

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Q WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls1
Year
and .
month

Real earnings

Current-d.ollar earnings
340. Index

(1977=100)

340c. Change
over 1-month
spans 2

340c. Change
over 6-month
spans!
(Ann. rate,
percent)

. (Percent)

Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector

341. Index

(1977 = 100)

341c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)

Current-dollar compensation
341c. Change
over 6-month
spans *
(Ann. rate,
percent)

345. Index

(1977 = 100)

345c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans2

345c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans2

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1984

January
February
March

158.4
158.3
158.9

April
May
June

159.6
159.5
160.0

-0.1

July
August
September

160.6
160.5
161.4

o.o

October
November
December

0.4
0.0
0.3

3.0
2.7
2.9

94.7
94.6
94.9

0.5

2.8
2.8
3.2

95.3
94.9
95.0

0.5

2.2
3.1
3.4

94.0
94.0

161.4
162.0
162.7

0.0
0.4
0.5

2.7
3.9
3.1

January
February
March

162.7
163.6
163.8

0.0
0.5
0.2

April
May
June

164.2
164.4
165.2

0.2
0.2
0.5

July
August
September

165.0
165.5
166.4

-0.2

166.2
166.8
167.7

-0.1

January
February
March

167.3
168.2
168.5

-0.3
0..5

April
May
June

168.4
168.7
169.2

-0.1

July
August
September

168,9
169.3
169.6

-0.2

October
November
December

r!70.0
P170.7

0.4
0.3

•

94.9.

-0.1
-0.1

0.3
0.4
-0.5

0.2
-0.1
-1.0

0.9
0.4
0.5

4.9
165.'l

3.2

0.5
-1.4
-2.0

0.0

-2.8
-1.4
-1.2

93.9
94.2
94.4

-0.1

3.5
3.1
3.1

94.3
94.5
94.2

-0.2

2.7
2.3
3.1

94.0
94.1
94.2

-0.2

2.4
2.9
3.1

93.9
94.1
94.4

-0.3

2.9
3.3
2.6

94.0
93.9
94.0

-0.4
-0.1

2.7
2.3
1.7

93.5
94.4
95.1

-0.6

1.8
1.4
1.3

95.4
95.4
95.2

166.*4

1.1
0.5

4.'l

4.3

-1.4

0.3
0.2

4.*3

168.' 1

3.*9

4.1
169.'8

4*2

1985

October
November
December

.,

0.3
0.5
0.4
0.6

0.2
-0.3

0.0
0.2
0.1
0.4

0.1

0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.7
-0.9

3.9

17l!s

3.9
4.4

173.3

3.8

0.4
0.0
-0.3
-0.5

3.2

174.7
3.6

-1.0

0.7
1.5

3.6

176.*2

3.Q

1986

0.2
0.2
0.3

1.0
0.8
0.3
0.0

2.9
3.2
2.6
3.5
1.6

-0.2
-0.2

r-0.7
p-0.4

rO.l
rO.2
pO.4

r95.1
p95.2

2*.8

2.2

178.5

-0,2

95.1
95.1
95.0

3.1
177.*6

rO.l
pO.2

0.3

rl.9
P2.3

0.1

2.4

179]6

-0.1

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
Adjusted for overtime, (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
2
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on tne 4th month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.

DECEMBER 1986




87

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I

PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

|
3

Real compensation
346, Index

(1977 = 100)

PRODUCTIVITY-Continued

Negotiated wage and
benefit decisions

Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector— Continued
Year
and
month

WAGES AND

346c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1

346c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

348. Average
first-year
changes 0

(Ann. rate,
percent)

Output per hour, all persons, business sector

349. Average
changes over
life of
contract ©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

370. Index

(1977=100)

370c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans'

370c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

358. Index of
output per hour,
all persons,
nonfarm business sector

(1977-100)

1984

January
February
March

97^6

April
May
June

97^5

July
August
September

9?!e

October
November
December

9?!?

-0.2

6!i

5.1

3.2

2.7

3.7

i'.k

104^6

104^4

b!s

ioi!3

i.*7

ioi!i

6^9

104! 9

i!s

losii

i!6

104^5

6!2

105^6

-0.3

10EL5
2.0

6,*5

103.*9

6!s

2.6

3.1

6.*3

0.4

2.k

105^6

6!l
0.5

4.4
104 '.9

3.5

-0.4

4.7

-0.1

105!5

1985

January
February
March

97^9

April .
May
June . .

9816

July
August
September

9s!i

October . .
November
December

9816

0.6

0.3

3.6

2.7

3.5

bis

3.4

2.0

i!i

2.7

3.4

3.0

107^3

0.*5

-0.7

0.9

106!i

6.*2

0.6

IDS!?

2,0

1.4

ioe!i

-3.2

1986

January
February .
March

1.6

, .

April
May
June

pi. 2

99^3

3.9

3.3

107is

99^3

July
August
September

pO.4

1.2

98\4

pO.7

pi. 6

0.5

107.*4
-0.1

pi. 9

105. '7

0.2

pi. 9

losls

107^4

October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
1
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are
placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.




DECEMBER 1986

ito

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
C I

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

JQJ CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
447. Number
unemployed,
full-time
workers

. Civilian labor force
Year
and
month

441. Total

442. Civilian
employment

Number unemployed
37, Persons
unemployed

444. Males
20 years
and over

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

445. Females
20 years
and over

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

446. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age

(Thous.)

448. Number
employed
part time
for economic
reasons

Civilian labor force participation rates
451 Males
20 years
and over

(Percent)

452. Females
20 years
and over

453. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

January . , .
February
March

112,191
112,683
112,734

103,209
103,846
103,959

8,982
8,837
8,775

4,242
4,133
4,059

3,189
3,146
3,140

1,551
1,558
1,576

7,493
7,300
7,312

5,714
5,713
5,479

78.3
78.3
78.3

53.0
53.3
53.4

53.0
53.7
53.5

April
May
June

113,083
113,722
113,818

104,318
105,175
105,580

8,765
8,547
8,238

4,058
3,943
3,783

3,149
3,100
2,976

1,558
1,504
1,479

7,327
7,067
6,597

5,549
5,328
5,571

78.2
78.3
78.5

53.6
54.1
53.8

54.0
54.0
54.8

July
August
September

113,922
113,718
113,795

105,466
105,222
105,415

8,456
8,496
8,380

3,877
3,864
3,830

3,131
3,181
3,016

1,448
1,451
1,534

6,980
6,970
6,898

5,481
5,351
5,443

78.4
78.3
78.3

54.0
53.9
53.6

54.4
53.2
54.4

October
November . . . . . . .
December

114,036
114,165
114,504

105,657
105,971
106,248

8,379
8,194
8,256

3,739
3,727
3,775

3,186
3,070
3,002

1,454
1,397
1,479

6,968
6,778
6,837

5,498
5,390
5,611

78.2
78.2
78.3

53.9
54.0
54.0

54.0
53.9
54.4

January
February
March

114,754
114,982
115,335

106,315
106,587
106,951

8,439
8,395
8,384

3,766
3,763
3,743

3,160
3,140
3,168

1,513
1,492
1,473

6,920
6,923
6,831

5,392
5,098
5,421

78.2
78.1
78.2

54.4
54.4
54.6

54.8
55.4
55.5

April
May
June

115,256
115,339
115,024

106,872
106,939
106,601

8,384
8,400
8,423

3,775
3,696
3,862

3,178
3,199
3,152

1,431
1,505
1,409

6,845
6,816
6,770

5,402
5,550
5,278

78.1
78.2
78.1

54.6
54.5
54.6

54.9
55.3
52.4

July
August
September

115,272
115,343
115,790

106,871
107,210
107,519

8,401
8,133
8,271

3,755
3,633
3,656

3,120
3,143
3,195

1,526
1,357
1,420

6,901
6,683
6,766

5,328
5,413
5,299

77.9
78.0
78.1

54.5
54.6
54.8

54.9
53.5
54.1

"October
November
December

116,114
116,130
116,229

107,813
107,969
108,206

8,301
8,161
8,023

3,677
3,656
3,566

3,054
3,057
2,988

1,570
1,448
1,469

6,726
6,713
6,583

5,241
5,295
5,294

78.1
78.1
78.0

54.9
54.9
55.0

54.8
54.3
54.0

January
February
March

116,786
117,088
117,207

108,955
108,561
108,788

7,831
8,527
8,419

3,507
3,799
3,809

2,915
3,211
3,155,

1,409
1,517
1,455

6,435
6,922
6,918

5,275
5,158
5,301

78.4
78.3
78.3

55.0
55.0
55.0

53.1
55.2
55.1

April
May
June

117,234
117,664
118,116

108,892
109,110
109,673

8,342
8,554
8,443

3,663
3,897
3,827

3,097
3,125
3,104

1,582
1,532
1,512

6,783
7,037
6,756

5,621
5,673
5,320

78,0
78.1
78.2

55 0 1
55.4
55.7

55.7
55.6
54.7

July
August
September

118,072
118,182
118,220

109,882
110,155
109,891

8,190
8,027
8,329

3,824
3,628
3,798

2,998
2,990
3,042

1,368
1,409
1,488

6,671
6,497
6,785

5,191
5,259
5,298

78,0
77.9
77.9

55.8
55.9
55.7

54.1
54.9
54,9

October
November
December . . . . . . .

118,482
118,654

110,240
110,371

8,242
8,283

3,831
3,839

2,999
2,979

1,411
1,464

6,695
6,699

5,501
5,309

77.9
78.2

55.8
55.8

55.3
54.6

(Percent)

(Percent)

1984

•

1985
.

'

1986

See note on page 80.

Graphs of these series are shown on page 51.

KUI

DECEMBER 1986



89

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

^J DEFENSE INDICATORS

Q RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES
State and local government '

Federal Government'
Year
and
month

Advance measures of defense activity

500. Surplus
or deficit

501. Receipts

502. Expenditures

510. Surplus
or deficit

511. Receipts

512. Expenditures

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

517. Defense
Department
gross obligations incurred

(Mil. dol.)

525. Defense
Department
prime contract awards

543. Defense
Department
gross unpaid
obligations
outstanding

(Mil. dot.)

(Mil. dol.)

548. Manufacturers'
new orders,
defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

1984

526.*5

460 .'6

21,145
22,667
23,445

15,089
14,273
13,779

142,169
145,648
150,842

6,503
6,884
11,713

70.' 6

538^8

468. * 7

19,185
20,342
19,781

11,398
9,459
11,644

149,369
149,452
151,538

5,139
6,648
6,834

901 !l

67.2

542^9

475^8

20,988
23,098
22,191

10,101
12,647
11,441

152,828
156,271
156,950

7,600
8,090
7,301

743^9

934 '.0

70.2

555! 3

485 !6

20,821
28,892
26,686

12,901
25,552
7,017

159,226
168,321
172,010

5,167
10,091
7,448

-162.2

793,*3

955! 4

es.'e

561. *3

495 .*6

22,492
20,377
20,346

12,449
12,432
10,360

174,180
173,704
174,338

11,061
4,708
6,240

April
May
June

-2U.8

755.' 8

97o!e

59.*2

571.9

512!6

22,655
25,140
29,513

9,658
14,147
11,627

174,867
178,000
179,337

6,130
8,773
11,238

July
August
September

-19?!5

792^6

990 !i

59^5

584! 2

524.7

31,641
34,470
30,753

12,163
17,579
11,702

182,074
187,278
186,401

9,594
10,270
8,106

October
November
December

-217!e

805!s

1, 023^4

62^5

592^7

530.2

28,629
25,809
30,768

10,584
10,086
14,088

185,059
182,400
183,504

6,179
6,810
7,152

r-195.0

r806.6

i,ooi!5

r69*.9

r608*.3

538 .'5

26,792
29,492
32,124

13,424
9,318
14,368

185,822
188,008
190,756

10,350
7,200
10,447

r-232*.2

r813*.5

1,045.'?

r58*. 9

rSl'l'.B

552.*6

28,162
29,221
34,945

12,855
8,849
13,493

188,903
189,004
193,207

6,500
8,430
7,253

r-197^4

r833*.i

rl,03C)'.5

r64*.0

r629'.'l

rS65'.l

31,541
p30,323

15,992
13,088
H3,413

196,185
p!98,635

10,157
8,332
8,838

January
February . .
March

-154!6

lll'.Z

865!2

April
May
June

-163.'9

721 ! 7

885.' 6

July
August
September

-171.9

729!2

October
November
December

-190*.i

January
February
March

...

.66.5

1985

1986

January
February
March
April
May
June

..,

July
August
September
October
November .
December

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

r5,001
plO.540

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
1

90

Based on national income and product accounts.




DECEMBER 1986

OTHER .IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
| £) I GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

QH DEFENSE INDICATORS-Continued
National defense
purchases

Intermediate and final measures of defense activity
Year,
and
month

557. Index of
industrial
production,
defense and
space equipment
(1977 = 100)

559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense
products, book
value
(Mil. dol.):

561. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

580. Defense
Department
net outlays,
military

(Mil. dol.)

588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense
products

(Mil. dol.)

570. Employment, defense
products industries

(Thous.)

Defense Department
personnel
577. Military
on active
duty©
(Thous.)

578. Civilian,
direct hire
employment
(Thous.)

564. Federal
purchases of
goods and
services,
national
defense
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

565. National
defense purchases as a
percent of
GNP
(Percent)

1984

January
February
March

148.8
150.6
151.1

17,861
18,190
18,746

113,575
114,624
120,647

18,448
17,801
17,794

5,682
5,835
5,690

1,391
1,398
1,408

2,130
2,135
2,140

1,049
1,049
1,051

227^1

6*2

April
May
June

155.0
154.9
155.8

19,017
19,514
20,035

119,870
120,758
121,672

18,525
18,609
18,953

5,916
5,760
5,920

1,414
1,424
1,435

2,138
2,141
2,143

1,052
1,056
1,056

233*.7

6*2

July
August
September . . . . . . . .

156.1
159.2
161.2

20,734
21,315
22,141

123,219
125,276
126,496

18,405
19,181
19,469

6,053
6,033
6,081

1,444
1,452
1,461

2,142
2,144
2,138

1,060
1,062
1,057

234*5

6*.2

October
November
December

160.8
160.4
162.9

22,551
22,581
22,517

125,340
129,092
129,775

18,687
20,152
19,899

6,323
6,339
6,765

1,470
1,474
1,485

2,138
2,141
2,138

i,068
1,069
1,069

244*9

6*4

163.2
164.2
166.0

23,091
23,405
23,489

134,455
132,467
131,990

18,762
20,058
20,465

6,380
6,695
6,718

1,496
1,506
1,514

2,146
2,147
2,148

1,073
1,074
1,076

248^9

6*4

167.1
168.3
169.9

24,006
23,962,
24,721

131,769
133,958
137,975

19,597
20,603
20,554

6,352
6,584
7,221

1,521
1,530
1,541

2,148
2,149
2,151

1,081
1,084
1,084

255U

6.'4

170.8
173.3
174.5

25,317
25,923
26,476

140,742
143,848
144,828

21,498
22,489
21,987

6,827
7,164
7,126

1,549
1,569
1,565

2,156
2,157
2,151

1,091
1,094
1,099

265. *5

6*6

174.8
177.2
178.5

26,587
26,598
26,270

143,336
142,288
141,497

20,908
21,847
22,443

7,671
7,858
7,943

1,572
1,581
1,580

2,151
2,153
2,150

1,099
1,098
1,100

26816

6.*6

January
February
March

178.7
176.3
176.2

26,762
26,254
27,080

144,814
144,433
147,801

20,152
21,586
23,342

7,033
7,581
7,079

1,589
1,590
1,589

2,157
2,160
2,160

1,103
1,087
1,084

266*4

6*4

April
May
June

178.0
178.0
178.4

27,565
27,754
28,117

146,968
147,912
147,201

22,101
22,921
21,954

7,333
7,486
7,964

1,594
1,598
1,576

2,150
2,150
2,143

1,081
1,072
1,060

278*4

6*7

July
....
August
September

179.5
181.0
r!82.0

28,149
28,466
29,036

149,275
149,963
151,114

22,538
21,714
p23,886

8,083
7,644
7,687

1,605
1,611
1,608

2,150
2,161
2,169

1,059
1,052
1,072

r286.*8

6*8

October
November
December

183.6
P184.4

29,221
= (NA)

rl48,107
p!49,959

(NA)

r8,008
p8,688

pi, 610
(NA)

2,177
p2,180

1,069
(NA)

1985

January
February
March
April .
May
June

•
....

July
August
September

./....

October
November . .
December . . . . . . .

.

1986

See note on page 80.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.

DECEMBER 1986



91

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
£) I

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

^ MERCHANDISE TRADE
|
602. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments

604. Exports of domestic
agricultural products

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery

612. General imports

Year
and
month

(Mil. dol)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum
products

616. Imports of automobiles and parts

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

1984

January
February
March

17,889
17,208
17,906

3,457
3,198
3,336

4,009
3,848
3,764

26,204
26,420
26,948

4,515
4,660
5,393

3,684
3,751
3,680

April
May
June

17,520
17,978
17,705

3,030
3,245
2,715

3,811
3,976
3,746

28,074
26,012
25,279

6,000
5,113
4,694

3,838
3,635
3,683

July
August
September

19,154
18,123
18,210

3,236
3,022
3,153

3,790
3,878
3,640

31,334
26,866
28,409

4,674
4,021
4,261

3,947
3,773
4,302

October
November
December

18,411
18,395
19,142

2,799
3,242
3,314

4,007
3,905
4,128

26,783
27,331
25,933

4,007
4,637
4,298

3,600
3,817
3,732

January
February . , .
March

19,401
17,853
18,446

2,945
2,842
2,436

4,247
3,970
4,160

28,297
27,985
28,129

4,005
3,833
3,411

4,033
4,999
4,243

April
May
June

17,779
17,414
17,438

2,624
2,215
2,218

3,970
4,073
3,952

28,295
28,685
29,425

4,936
5,237
4,842

4,350
4,073
4,932

July . . . .
August
September

17,412
17,423
17,732

2,184
2,347
2,080

3,615
3,897
3,777

26,630
26,083
31,764

3,342
3,252
4,041

4,161
4,489
5,555

October
November
December

17,368
17,976
17,024

2,351
2,446
2,426

3,694
3,918
3,730

27,594
30,285
32,888

3,811
4,367
5,079

4,198
5,461
5,758

January
February
March

M?, 006
'17,734
US, 911

2,320
2,283
2,135

3,854
4,294
3,740

'32,005
'28,895
'31,972

4,978
4,254
3,578

5,044
5,378
5,018

April
May
June

'17,964
1
17,430
1
19,069

2,043
1,960
1,819

3,981
3,644
3,582

'28,762
'30,272
'31,764

2,084
2,718
2,731

5,044
5,054
5,535

July
August .
September

"17,707
M7.601
M7,518

2,062
2,231
2,111

3,585
4,091
3,812

1

34,121
'29,476
1
28,695

2,483
2,225
2,435

6,242
6,280
4,909

1

2,447

3,932

(NA)

(NA)

'30,018
(NA)

2,155
(NA)

5,790
(NA)

1985

1986

.,

October
November
December

19,330
(NA)

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.
'Not seasonally adjusted, See item 7 of "New Features and Changes for This Issue" on page iv of the March 1986 issue.

92




DECEMBER

1986

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued

Q GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS)
|
Merchandise, adjusted;

Goods and services
Year
and
month

667. Balance

(Mil. dol.)

668. Exports

(Mil. dol.)

669, Imports

(Mil. dol.)

622. Balance

(Mil. dol.)

618. Exports

(Mil. dol.)

Income on investment
620. Imports

(Mil. doi.)

651. U.S. investment abroad

(Mil. dol.)

652. Foreign
investment in
the United States

(Mil. dol.)

1984

January
February
March

-17,872

89,907

107,779

-25,801

53,614

79,415

22,860

15,446

April
May
June

-25,394

89,053

114,447

-29,094

54,590

83,684

21,104

17,208

July
August
September

-25J66

90,631

115,797

-28,453

55,691

84,144

21,396

17,991

October
November
December

-25,874

90,522

116,396

-29,174

56,005

85,179

20,861

16,823

January
February
March

-22,832

88,040

110,872

-25,045

55,324

80,369

18,726

16,507

April
May
June

-25,959

89,350

115,309

-30,367

53,875

84,242

22,253

16,804

July
August
September

-24,454

90,234

114,688

-31,675

52,498

84,173

24,502

16,240

October
November
December

-29,451

90,873

120,324

-37,352

52,727

90,079

24,509

15,254

-3i,bi5

91,593

122,608

-36,459

53,661

90,120

24,2i6

17,699

April
May
June

r- 30, 334

r92,060

r!22,394

r-35,669

r55,149

90,818

r22,636

rl7,3li

July
August
September

p-32,103

p92,531

p!24,634

p-37,669

p55,318

p92,987

P22,482

p!6,973

1985

1986

January
February
March

October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department
of Defense purchases (imports).

DECEMBER

1986




93

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Q
47. United States,
index of industrial production

(1977-100)

Year
and
month

721.0ECD 1
European countries, index of
industrial
production

(1977 = 100)

728. Japan,
index of industrial production

(1977 = 100)

INDUSTRI M PRODUCTION

725. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production

(1977 = 100)

726. France,
index of industrial production

(1977 = 100)

722. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production

(1977 = 100)

727. Italy, index
of industrial
production

(1977-100)

721 Canada,
index of industrial production

(1977-100)

1984

January
February
March

118.5
119,3
119.9

108
108
107

131,5
135.4
134.2

106
108
105

105
104
105

105
104
103

106.0
104.0
108.0

110.8
107.8
110.3

April
May
June

120.5
121.0
121.9

106
107
104

135.1
137.9
138.6

105
106
95

102
105
103

103
102
103

104.3
108.0
108.4

111.8
113.3
113,8

July
August
September

122.8
123.0
122,4

108
109
109

139,2
140.2
139.4

109
108
108

107
107
105

102
102
103

107.3
108.0
110.7

114.7
114.6
112.7

October
November
December

122.1
122.7
122.7

109
109
108

143.3
143,4
142.7

109
110
109

107
105
103

103
103
104

107 5
107 0
107.4

114.0
114.5
114.1

January
February
March

122.7
123.2
123.4

108
110
111

143.0
143.4
141.9

110
109
110

101
105
107

106
106
108

102.8
111.5
111.7

115.2
115.5
116.8

April
May
June

123.3
123.6
123.6

110
111
111

144.9
147 4
144 9

110
112

104
107
104

IOQ
108
108

107 6
108 5
mi

116.4
117 6
118 8

July
August
September

123.4
124.4
124,3

111
111
112

147 2
145 5
144 5

i f|7

i oc; Q

m
110

1 D7

i n?
108
11 n

i ny n

1 1?
1 1?

110 K

1 9O O
l^U.U

October
November .
December

123.6
124.8
125.6

112
114
110

144 8
144 2
144 6

1 07

i OQ

1 OK Q

1 1Q O

126 2
1?5 t
123.6

112
113

March

144 6
145 2
144.5

April
May
June

124.7
124.2
124.2

1985

111

11 K
11C

1 n?

i OQ
i r\&
1U4

110 Q

o

llo. 7
/

ny .y
110 J
iiy. Q

1 OK K

m . oC

110
110

108.0
111.0
114.5

1 9O J"3
1&U.

111

116.2

107

108 R
1 1T 7

1 07

1986

January
February

.

..

July
August
September . . . .

124.9
125.1
r!25.1

October
November
December

125.2
nl ?R Q

rl!2
rl!5

111
114

144.6
145.1
145 3

rl!4
P114

r!44.9
r!41.3
r!45 2

CNA)

(NA)

115

113
117
112
116
117

rl!6
110

(NA)

1 od
1 o?
104

r!09

110
103
108

r!09

1 OQ
109
ni no

110

110 A

110

105.6

nl 1 1
Pill

(NA)

(NA)

K
pllU. o
nl 1 n

(NA)

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 58.
1

0rgani2ation for Economic Cooperation and Development.

94




DECEMBER 1986

i on J
lc.0, o
117.1
120.2
117 7
116 6

m

n

116.3

1 IF o
pus. 8

(NA)

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

Qj CONSUMER PRICES

United States
Year
and
month

320. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

West Germany

Japan

320c. Change
over 6^month
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

738. Index©

(1967 = 100)

738c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

735. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

United Kingdom

France

735c. Change
over 6-month
spans1

736. Index ©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967 = 100)

736c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

732. Index ©

(1967-100)

732c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1984

January
February
March

305.2
306.6
307.3

4.6
4.3
4.2

312.3
314.2
315.1

April
May
June

308.8
309.7
310.7

3.6
3.7
3.9

315.9
318.2
315.6

July
August
September

311.7
313.0
314.5

3.7
3.8
3.8

October
November
December

315.3
315.3
315.5

January
February
March

2.7
2.4
1.5

206.6
207.1
207.3

2.6
2.5
1.9

425.4
428.0
431.0

6.6
6.6
6.9

550.4
552.6
554.4

4.1
4.0
3.7

2.5
0.8

207.7
207.8
208.6

1.6
1.3
0.9

433.6
436.2
438.4

6.8
7.0
7.2

561.8
563.9
565.3

3.6
5.1
5.1

316.2
313.4
318.5

1.6
1.9
3.8

208.2
207.8
208.0

1.6
1.7
2.1

441.5
443.7
445.9

7.7
7.4
6.8

564.7
570.0
571.1

5.7
5.9
5.4

3.5
3.3
3.5

321.0
319.0
319.6

3.2
3.0
2.5

209.2
209.6
209.8

2.7
3.4
4.3

449.0
450.3
451.2

6.4
5.9
5.8

574.6
576.4
575.9

6.5
5.8
7.1

316.1
317.4
318.8

3.6
3.6
3.6

321.3
318.7
320.2

2.2
1.3
1..4

211.0
211.9
212.6

3.4
3.4
2.4

453.5
455.8
459.0

5.5
5.5
6.0

578.0
582.7
588.1

April
May
June

320.1
321.3
322.3

3.6
3.4
2.8

321.9
323.3
323.5

1.6
1.7
0.9

212.9
213.1
213.3

1.6
0.9
0.2

462.2
464.5
466.4

5.8
5.3
4.7

600.6
603.4
604.7

7.3
6.6
4.7

July
August
September

322.8
323.5
324.5

2.9
3.6
3.8

323.8
320.7
323.8

2.2
2.4
1.7

212.9
212.2
212.6

0.0
0.2
1.1

468.2
468.7
469.2

4.1
3.9
3.3

603.5
605.1
604.8

2.8
2.7
3.1

October
November
December

325.5
326.6
327.4

4.1
2.9
1.6

328.4
325.0
32,5'. 2

1.1
1.9
1.0

212.9
213.3
213.5 ,

1.0
0.3

-

-0.2

470.6
471.5
472.1

2.7
1.7
1.4

605.8
607.9
608.7

4.0
3.6
3.6

0.3

325.8
324.4
323.5

-0.6
-0.2
-0.6

213.8
213.3
212.8

.

-0.5
-0.8
-1.3

472.6
471.7
472.9

1.6
1.1
1.3

610.0
612.2
613.0

3.2
2.8
2.0

324.7
326.9
325.2

-0.6

212.6
212.6
212.9

-1.8
-1.0
-0.7

474.7
475.6
477.0

1.3
2.3
3.0

619.0
620.1
619.8

1.0
1.1
2,3

324.4
323.8
325.4

-1.0
(NA)

211.9
211.4
211.7

-1.1
-1.5

477.5
478,0
479.9

2.8

618.0
619.9
623.0

2.8
4.2

-0.1

1985

,

8.2
8.3
8.5

1986

January
February
March

328.4
327.5
326.0

April
May
June

325.3
326.3
327.9

July
August
September

328.0
328.6
330.2

October
November
December

330.5
330.8

-0.4
-0.2
-0.8

0.3
1.8
2.7
2.9

325.7
(NA)

0.4
0.4

211.0
210.8

480.9
(NA)

(NA)

623.9
629.2

See note on page 80!
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
1
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.

DECEMBER

1986




95

OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F I

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

Qj STOCK PRICES

Q CONSUMER PRICES-Continued
Italy
Year
and
month

737. Index ©

733c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

19. United
States, index
of stock
prices, 500
common
stocks ©

748. Japan,
index of
stock
prices ©

745. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices ©

746. France,
index of
stock
prices ©

742. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices ©

747. Italy,
index of
stock
prices @

743, Canada,
index of
stock
prices ©

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967 = 100)

(1967-100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967 = 100)

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

Canada

737c. Change
over 6-month
spans'

733. Index ©

(1967-100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967-100)

January
February
March

678.3
685.8
690.6

11,1
10.9
10.9

329.2
331.1
331.9

4.3
4.7
3.4

181.0
171.1
171.3

687.6
699.6
736.1

185,3
182.3
178.4

275.9
263.4
261.1

457.2
457.2
485.3

125.3
128.7
128.5

279.0
273.4
269.2

April
May
June

695.4
699.6
703.8

10.0

9.4
8.1

332.7
333.3
334.7

3.1
2.3
3.0

171.4
170.3
166.6

776.0
744.6
711.2

177.9
178.0
175.8

285.4
277.1
272.3

495.0
489.6
468.7

124.9
122.5
119.6

262.5
251.9
251,0

July
August
September . .

705.9
708.0
713.0

6,8
6.4
6.8

336.6
336.6
336.9

2.5
3.4
4.2

164.3
178.9
180.7

701.3
728.8
738.6

167.2
172.0
178.3

256.7
274.3
287.0

447.5
478.6
497.0

121.4
128.7
127.6,

24L8
269.6
270.4

October
November
December

720.1
724.4
729.5

7.2
7.7
8.9

337.5'
339.7
339.9

4.3
5.2
4.4

179.3
180.9
178.9

760.5
774.7
804.7

185.2
185.1
187.4

287.9
286.0
285.2

503.7
525.9
551.2

127.4
130.5
130.5

265.9
267.6
271.2

1984

1985

January
February
March
April
May
June

736,8
744.2
749,4
. . . .

10.7
11.1
10.4

341.3
343.5
344.3

5.3
4.5
4.0

186.7
196.8
195.2

839.5
851.9
900.4

195.1
202.0
213.4

294,3
307.9
317.8

578.1
585.1
592.3

147.2
164.1
165.0

293,2
293.2
295.2

756.1
760.6
. 764.4

10.0

9.4
8.5

345.7
346.5
348.3

3.4
2.9
3.6

196.5
201.1
205.5

880.3
890.6
915.0

212.5
218.7
234.2

328.9
336.4
337.2

592.0
607.0
591.3

164.4
188.7
199.0

297.8
309.2
306.5

July
August
September

766.7
768.2
771.3

7.5
6.0
7,0

349.5
350.1
350,5

3.1
3.4
4.7

209.4
204.8
200.2

941.6
915.9
915.0

234.8
237.4
253.2

321.9
316.8
312.3

568.4
597.0
605.7

212.9
229.8
246.4

314.0
318.6
297.4

October
November
December

780.6
786.1
791.6

6.2
6.2
6.2

351.7
353.1
354.7

5.2
5.0
4.6

202.5
214.8
225.5

930.9
910.7
933.9

273.6
293.2
294.9

300.4
338.9
356.3

617,4
652.0
644.5

251.1
263,9
285.2

302.2
322.8
327.8

795.6
801.2
804.4

5.8
6.8
5.5

356.3
357.7
358.5

4.5
4.8
2.9

226.5
238.6
252.7

936.5
964.8
1,052.8

327.1
320.8
329.6

383.6
409.9
450.2

647.8
690.0
755.0

303.8
343.9
430.2

321.2
322.7
344.3

..

806.8
809.9
813.1

5.5
5.7
4.8

359.1
360.7
361.3

3.0
3.5
3.7

258.9
259.4
266.8

1,116.7
1,144.6
1,203.9

345.8
318.7
313.8

517.4
525.9
470.6

780.6
755.5
750.0

512.3
580.0
485.1

347.9
352.8
348.6

July
August
September

813.1
814.7
817.1

4.0
(NA)

363.9
365.1
365.1

4.4
4.6

261.3
266.5
259.2

1,262.7
1,354,5
pi, 355. 4

293.2
316.3
327.2

508,1
530,0
P528.3

P739.7
P734.9
P751.1

483.2
p541,3
P535.5

331,7
342.2
336,6

October
November
December

822.0

pi, 267.1

p319.1
rp324.3
P331.0

p520.0
rp532.1
P566.4

P735.3
rp758.3
P758.2

P530.6
rp517.0
P482.6

343.4
344.3
P344.0

1986

January
February
March
April
May
June

(NA)

366.9
368.9

258.2
266,6
P271.7

rpl,296.3

pi, 397.1

See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
1
Changcs over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.

96



DECEMBER 1986

ItO

APPENDIXES
B. Current Adjustment Factors
Series

Feb.

Jan.

5 . Average weekly 1 hi tial cl alms 7 State
unennp] oyment insurance
•••"
1

13. New business incorporations .

f

m

. ... .^

i

105 3

15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales,
manufacturi ng corporations2 . . . . . . . .
z 3

33. Net change in mortgage debt

72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstandino in current dollars'*. .

89 8

Apr.
uO 1

1986
June July

May
82 8

87 4 in^ d

91 3 103 8 106 3 102 8 104 1

101 4

108.6

97.3
-692

. . . . . ..

im ?

Mar.

-3776 -1172

1053

• 446

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

01 C

or c

i rm P 1 97 n

94 4

96 8

104 5

85 2 100 3
94 5

1805

785

-56

51

-512

100.2

99.8

99 7

99 6

99 9

99 9

743

99.7

99.7

100.3

100.3

517, Defense Department^ gross obligations
'incurred1. . . . V'. . . . . .". . '.''. . .

121.1

92.2

101.9

95.1

86.8

80.5

91.3

84.6

1-24.1 107.8

101.6

108.8

525. Defense Department prime contract awards .

114.9

100.3

111.5

84.3

88.8

81.0

72.8

78.7

186.2

119.9

92.0

B4.3, Defense Department gross unpaid
obligations outstanding . .

104.1 103.6

103.2

103.6

101.3

98.6

96.6

93.7

96.5

97.5 100.1

101.4

100.2

100.1

100.0

99.8

99.8

100.1

100.0

99.4

100.0

100.1 100.2

100.3

100:5

95.5

100.8

100.6

100.8

99.5

102.2

100.7

109.3 . 107.1 112.4

103.8

94.9

92.5

82.6

84.5

104.1

104.7

100.9

92.0 108.2

107.9 112.0 110.0

*

570. Employment., defense -products Industries , :,
580

1

Defense Department net outlays . , ." .•• . .

604. .'Exports of domestic agricultural products'!'
. , ..

96,1

90.2

111.3

100.0

614. 'Imports of petroleum and petroleum
products1. . . . . . . . . . V . . . . . .

98.3

82.5

84.5

93.7

93.5

109.3

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery

1

616 Imports of automobiles and parts . . . . .

106.0

100.5 100.4

Dec.

QC 1

99.6
1408

Nov.

70.1

97.7 100.9

95.4

104.4

90.7

99.5

114.0

109.1

95.4

98.3

104.8

96.1

97.9

108.3

103.1

111.7

113.1

97.7 106.2

96.5

81.5

95,0

98.6

94.7

95.4

, NOTE: These series are, seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis rather than by the source agency. Seasonally adjusted data prepared .by the source 'agency :;wi 11 be used in -BUSINESS 'CONDITIONS-DIGEST whenever they are available. For a description
pf tile method -used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, THE X-ll VARIANT OF THE CENSUS METHOD
?I SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT

PROGRAM.

'

.

factors are,the products of.iSeasonal and trading-day factors.
Quarterly series;' factors are placed in .the middle,month of the quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly totals to
yield the seasonally "adjusted net change. ' These factors are computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method IJ.seasonaT adjustment program^
''.These factors apply only to the loans portion of,this series.




97

C. Historical Data for Selected Series
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Dec.

IQ

II Q

175
251
315

169
298
276

190
280
253

210
180
314

225
191
313

230
225
312

214
302

223
320

230
355

222
229

311
373
304
304
282
249
209
203
220
188
202

351
385
305
299
276
262
212
208
209
190
211

229
243
416
249
311
358
296
288
261
228
188
242
194
187
306
287
269
235
299
503
386
369
326
370
576
400
567
443
353
387

235
269
350
275
350
331
303
286
250
232
197
220
195
195
293
306
254
240
339
446
397
367
336
379
498
433
597
392
364
379

5. A V E R A G E W E E K L Y I N I T I A L CLAIMS FOR U N E M P L O Y M E N T IN S U R A N C E , STATE P R O G R A M S
(THOUSANDS)

1952.. .
1953..,
1954...
1 9 5 5 . ,.
1956. ..
1957. ..
1958...
1959...
1960. . .
1961...
1962.. .
1963...
1964.. .
1965.. .
1966.. .
1967.. .
1968.. .
1969.. .
1970.. .
1971. ..
1972...
1973.. .
1974...
1975.. .
1976.. .
1977.. .
1978. . .
1979...
1980...
1981. . .
1982. . .
1983. . .
1984, .,
1985.. .
1986.. .

201
177
318
240
226
225
407
284
271
429
295
301
270
248
219
231

209
188
320
228
221
219
436
258
303
379
287
288
277
237
182
256

219
179
313
228
223
239
438
244
294
381
283
293
265
237
179
259

213
198
313
222
236
244
400
246
316
358
301
288
262
224
192
236

242
195
314
222
227
246
410
258
322
334
304
284
257

315
207
294
223
245
267
350
264
335
348
303
282
260

207
229
319
233
224
235
363
291
363
316
305
290
244

168
238
322
204
236
305
338
271
351
329
300
285
245

194
231

179
240
292
264
226
294
522
360
394
343
353
416
424
563
507

186
256
286
262
223
315
532
340
427
381
352
397
410
514
478

185
262
294
258
227
302
536
358
346
335
346
438
413
566
479

181
326
281

182
302
290

197
291
289

199
231
192
195

195
212
199
196

197
217
194
195

285

325

307

294
250

283
241

275
381
296
310
301
251
206
219
204
190
210
299
265
236

238
289
521
371
371
322
41 1
532
395
566
470

234

233

496
392
378
324
341
616
401
585
453

491
394
358
331
358
581
405
551
406

232
294
442
393
370
347
377
510
395
533
380

378

402

389

387

383

392

381

350
449
389
368
339
383
495
421
605
408
358
375

374
447
410
363
321
378
488
483
653
387
368
381

419
420
409
357
326
400
447
517
651
386
405
367

473
393
390
347
340
420
422
539
616
381
397
371

494
364
361
342
347
428
420
551
531
378
386
391

278
285
400
294
300
277
243
208
228
199
183
253
291
261
225
304
530
353
389
353
350
417
416
548
488
352
390

1952..,
1953.. .
1954.. .
1955.. .
1956...
1957 . . .
1958.. .
1959.. .
1960. ..
1961.. .
1962.. .
1963. ..
1964. . .
1965. . .
1966. ..
1967. . .
1968.. .
1969.. .
1970...
1971,,.
1972...
1 9 7 3 . ..
1 9 7 4 . ..
1975.. .
1976.. ,
1977. . .
1978...
1979.. .
1980,. .
1981 ...
1982., .
1983.. .
1984, . ,
1985..,
1986, ..

2.51
2.84
2.20
2.50
3.35
3.65
2.77
3.09
3.27
3.48
3.62
3.80
4.70
4.89
5.81
5.30
7,74
8.98
9, 20
8.21
8.75
11.26
13.88
13.38
14.47
16.65
20.00
25.37
28.08
28.64
26.70
23.72
29.47
27 ,81

2.55
2.88
2 .24
2.72
3.26
3.55
2.67
3.19
3.35
3.40
3.94
3.91
4.24
4.93
6.28
5.69
7 .81
9.33
8.86
8.94
9.23
11.95
14.27
12.4§
14.15
16.76
22.71
27 .75
26.33
26.71
29.61
24.07
30.99
33,80

20.
1952., .
1953.. .
1954. . .
1955...
1956.. .
1957. . .
1958. ..
1959.. .
I960.. .
1961. ..
1962,, .
1963.. .
1964.. .
1965.. .
1966.. .
1967. ,.
1968...
1969., .
1970.. .
1 9 7 1 . ..
1972...
1973.. .
1974. . .
1 9 7 5 . ..
1976.. .
1977.. ,
1978.. .
1979. . .
1980 ...
1981. ..
1982...
1983, . .
1984. . .
1985. . ,
1986.. .

9,78
11.07
8,38
9.46
11.90
11.99
8.70
9.59
10 .0 1
10.83
11 .09
11.57
14.31
14.69
17.23
14.98
21.13
24.05
23.50
20 .10
20.45
25.98
30.29
23,33
23.63
25.71
29.04
33.34
33.52
31.18
27 .02
23.55
30.02
27 .74

9,92
11.31
8.50
10.25
11.56
11.55
8.40
9.87
10.23
10.50
12,11
11.94
12.93
14.86
18.53
16.09
21.30
24.61
22.60
22.03
21.39
27 .76
30.92
21.54
22.71
25.76
32.64
36.19
31,36
28.83
29.81
23.88
31.51
35.81

C O N T R A C T S AND ORDER

2.59
2.64
1.91
3.15
3.28
3.52
2.66
3.73
3.27
3.25
3.65
3 .88
4.43
5.22
6.14
5.81
9.63
8.69
8,37
9.02
9,94
2,01
4,64
2.03
4.90
5,98
20.61
29.93
25.95
28.02
26.19
23.82
30.93
32.09

211
218
305
226
227
267
370
279
331
348
299
290
260
228
201
225
194
193
292
291
257
240
351
468
381
368
338
379
480
446
578
426
366
383

31.56
30.82
26.05
36.64
41.33
37.83
34.33
41.11
40.62
41.28
45,11
49.49
56.74
63.19
75.32
71.70
98.19
109.24
98.19
106.99
121.98
154.99
176.77
157.84
186.69
219.23
276.27
321.85
316.36
335,82
297.21
320.18
375.85
384.72

2.39
2.76
2.00
2.80
3.56
3.29
2.72
3.46

2.69
2.16
2.05
2.99
3.60
3,13
2.85
3.54

2.76
2 .66
2.15
2,97
3.43
3 .06
2.75
3.61

2.48
2.23
2.15
3.15
3.41
3.13
3.13
3.22

3.34
2.57
2 .31
3.33
3.33
2.83
3.14
3.63

2.50
2.72
2 .43
3.20
3 ,34
2 .89
3.04
3.50

2.36
2.34
2.25
3.45
3.79
2.89
.00
.30

2.83
2.14
2 ,40
3.45
3.58
2.74
2.91
3.49

7.65
8.36
6.35
8.37
9,89
10 .72
8. 10
10.01

7.64
7.80
6.01
8.72
10.56
9.57
8,26
10.35

8.58
7.46
6.61
9.45
10 .17
9.02
9.02
10.46

3.27
3,85
3.98
4,46
5.25
6,41
5.70
7.97
9.93
8.00
8 ,89
9.81
12.16
13 .93
13.77
14.81
17.49
20.59
27.54
26.09
30.34
26.03
26 .07
30 .27
30.32

3.22
3.68
4.36
4.82
5.18
6.34
5.88
7.32
9.35
8.10
8.65
10.79
12.85
15.34
14.34
13.66
19.19
22.95
24.70
23.06
28.18
23.53
26,57
33,53
30.66

3.41
3.61
3.99
4.95
5,10

3,65
3.96
4.64
5 .27

3.66
4.07
4.69
5,08

3.64
4,20
4.75
5.49

3,73
4.28
4.79
5.51

.00
4.50
5.10
5,45

6.11
7.24
8,85
7.80
9.73
9,39
12.73
14.17
14.15
15.97
18.88
21.35
26.37
25.22
28.59
23.08
27 .49
32.06
32.63

6.05
8.30
8.83
8.15
8.00
10.47
13.04
16.64
13 .24
17.16
16.80
22.90
26.67
26.97
28.84
23.97
25.73
32.94
32.08

6.26
8.39
8.75
7 .72
8.88
9.69
13.11
15.12
14.63
15,32
18.91
24.07
25.36
26.26
28.08
22.71
27.36
31.11
32,11

6 .09
7.77
9.93
7.94
9.39
11.07
13.02
15.61
12.53
16.55
20.34
24.86
26.34
26.52
27.86
24.13
28.91
31 .66
34.57

6.19
9.29
8.84
7 .04
8.49
10 ,65
14.41
14.94
12.52
16,98
18.33
28.01
26 .08
26 ,26
26.90
23.12
29.28
29.97
32.82

6.22
7.98
8.81
8.11
9.25
10.98
14.55
13.52
12.76
16.23
18.95
25,26
27.93
27 .08
27.37
23.24
28.57
31.43
30.79

4.08
4.56
5.17
5.82
6.14
6.40
8.75
8.95
8.90
9.54

11.21
11.59
13 .37
15.04
18.23
16.80
25.18
27.00
26.43
26.17

9,90
11.14
12.33
14.23
15.53
18.96
17.69
22.53
28,13
23.90
27.27

10.59
10.95
12.23
14,08
15,84
19.65
18.40
24.46
27.51
23 .81
26 .27

7.69
7.20
7 .08
10.10
10.71
8.52
8.95
10.29
10.03
10.66
11.81
13.34
15,06
16,78
18.48
18.81
26.02
26.60
24.05
27.28

13.90
14.71
12.04
16.49
20.96
22 .96
27.81
28.54
26.29
24.90
28.59
31.49
35.04

35.22
42.79
37.86
43.52
49.39
63,32
83.05
60.36
83 ,37
82.50
71.61
91.39
93 .70

37.74
43.44
42.26
44.44
55.56
64.89
78.61
74.37
87.11
72.64
80.13
95.86
93.61

39,17
47.37
40.40
49.03
56.05
71, 83
78.37
79.75
84.78
70.81
82.00
95.71
98.76

42.86
43.17
37.32
49.70
58.24
76.23
81.82
81.88
80.56
71.26
86.44
92.89
98.65

9.31
10.67
7,62
10.52
12.24
10.65
8.50
10.66
10.81
9.93
11.29
13.41
14.56
15.56
18.35
16.53
19.87
24.56
20.39
20.88
25.12
29.38
31,57
24. 19
22.03
28.98
32.01
31 .75
26,60
29.85
23.59
26,69
33.97
31.33

TOTAL FOR PE UOD

10.54 *
8.21
7.83
11.12
12.36

10.79
10 .21
8.17
11.01
11.80

9.72
8.47
8.21
11.59
11,59

13.43
9.85
8,78
12.20
11.10

9.79
10.56
9.32
11.55
11 .04

9.27
8.97
8.60
12 .44
12.44

11.19
8.11
9,13
12.29
11,69

29.76
32 .63
24,13
31.55
34.96

29.83
30 .04
22,86
32.74
36.41

33.94
28.53
25.16
34.80
34.49

30.25
27.64
27.05
36.28
35.17

123.78
118,84
99.20
135,37
141,03

8.96
10.86
10.44
10.49
11.07
12.16
14.96
15.15
17.89
17.19
19.66
23.08
19,51
23.54
21.56
28.66
28.64
23.78
25.71
28.39
29,50
33.57
28.65
30.11
23 .04
27.95
32.64
33.34

8.60
1 1 .06
10.53
10.68
11.21
12 .02
14.06
15.70
19.13
16,91
22.41
22.93
20.44
19.09
24. 3
29. 3
32. 9
22 . 0
27 , 1
25.01
31 .41
33.85
30.15
30,11
23 .90
26 .20
33 .27
32 .63

9.88
9.81
10.50
11.26
11.25
12.35
14.21
15.09
17.90
17.50
22 .7 8
22.67
19.14
21.22
22 .64
29.47
28.89
24.49
24.30
28.02
32 .74
32.18
29.64
29.14
22 .60
27 .74
31.70
33.01

9.86
11.14
10,64
10.50
11.13
12.72
14.42
16.42
19.62
17.06
20 .91
25.49
19.89
22.51
25.77
29,12
29.06
20.85
26.06
30.06
33.67
33.10
29.70
28.72
24.02
29.72
32.25
35.24

9.55
10.75
10.33
10.75
11.38
12.99
14.50
16.37
17.62
17.31
24.89
22.74
17.47
20.18
24.79
32 .30
27 .06
20.78
26 .40
26 .73
37.62
32.24
29.30
27.50
23.00
29.84
30,35
33.49

9,32
10.11
9.91
11.47
12.22
13,82
15.52
16,07
17.43
17.29
21 .20
22.46
20.08
22.02
25.50
32.26
24.18
21.05
25.38
27.70
33.80
34.06
30.09
27 .90
23.06
28.85
32.07
31.52

9.02
10.67
10.76
10.52
12.61
13. 94
15.73
17,14
17.33
17.63
23.25
22.83
22.01
22 .67
26.12
30.78
26 . 17
19.65
25,51
30,52
30.48
33 ,81
31 .32
26.70
24,77
29.13
31.47
34.61

25.45
31.07
30.19
31 .24
34,48
35.33
40.67
45.21
53.79
47.54
68. 55
71.52
67.18
64.36
64.83
81 .56
92 .92
65.36
70.86
75.91
91.03
107.40
95.60
90 .02
83.15
71.31
92.99
96.46

25.88
31.92
32.05
30.49
34.14
37.71
43.07
46.49
54.98
49.76
60.91
73.53
60.09
66.10
69.29
86.14
89.92
71,43
71.48
84.03
90.49
100 .98
85.74
92.25
72.76
80.89
97.28
95.16

28.34
32 ,01
31.67
32.44
33.59
37.09
42.69
47.21
56 .65
51.47
66,10
71.09
59.47
62 .82
72,64
88.02
90.74
67.64
77 .77
83 .09
97 .82
99,13
89.49
87.97
70.52
83.66
97.22
100.88

27 .89
31.53
31.00
32,74
36.21
40.75
45.75
49.58
52.38
52.23
69.34
68.03
59,56
64.87
76.41
95.34
77.41
61.48
77.29
84.95
101.90
100.11
90.71
82.10
70.83
87.82
93.89
99.62

107.56
126.53
124.91
126.91
138.42
150.88
172.18
188.49
217.80
201.00
264,90
284.1?
246.30
258.15
283.17
351.06
350.99
265.91
297.40
327,98
381.24
407.62
361.54
352.34
297.26
323.68
381,38
392.12

MOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.
'This series contains revisions beginning with 1948.




178
276
281
218
222
326
'315
312
380
302
304
286
254
209
210
211
189
208
317
281
242
260
462
392
387
349
338
416
430
536
599
382
396
376

2.56
2 .88
1.96
2.93
3.40
3.15
2.69
3.35

9.98
11.16
7 .41
11.10
11.81
10.18
8.42
10.40
10 .80
10 .07
11.78
12.14
13.55
15.78
18.74
16.04
21.38
25 .89
20.19
21.68
22.61
28.10
29,71
23,46
23.74
26.66
28.98
35.66
30,49
32.29
26.13
26.25
30.67
30.49

Annual

3 FOR PLANT AND E Q U I P M E N T IN C U R R E N T DOLLARS

C O N T R A C T S AND O R D E R S FOR PLANT AND E Q U I P M E N T IN 1982 D O L L A R S l
( B I L L I O N S OP D O L L A R S )
10.06
10.25
7.25
11.84
11.50
11 .46
8.35
11.61
9.95
9.91
11.28
11.82
13.43
15,66
18,03
16.47
26.12
22.86
21.08
22.23
22.99
27,82
31.71
20.49
24.52
24.44
29.35
37.87
30.72
30.01
26.32
23.88
31,46
32.91

IV Q

AVERAGE FOR P E R I O D

221
175
303
256
218
242
354
292
281
393
301
310
283
243
222
196

10.

III Q

Nov.

Oct.

Sept.

(DECEMBER 1986}

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.
47.

1952.. .
1953...
1954...
1955. ..
1956. ..
1957...
1958.,.
1959...
I960.. .
1961., ,
1962.. .
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966.. .
1967.. ,
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976, ..
1977. ..
1978...
1979., .
1980.. .
1981 . . .
1982...
1983. ..
1984...
1985...
1986...

36.3
40.2
37.9
40.4
44.9
46.0
42,2
46.0
50.6
46.4
51.7
54.3
58.1
63.4
69.5
76.0
80.0
79.5
78.6
83.8
91.8
93.3
84.8
89.3
96.5
101.6
110.3
111,3
111.0
105.4
102.5
118.5
122.7

June

May

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

II Q

51.7
53.9
57.7
62.0
68,0
73.2

40.0
38.1
39.5
44.7
46.2
43.0
45.3
49.3
46.3
52.
53,
57.
62,
68.
73.

36.5
40.4
37.9
41 . 1
44.7
46.3
41 .4
46.8
50.2
46.4
52,3
54.8
58.4
64.0
70.1

35.9
41.0
37,7
42.8
44.5
45.7
40.8
49.1
49,1
48.2
52.8
56.3
59.8
65.5
71,6

37.0
41 .0
37.9
43.5
44.3
45.9
42.9
47 , 1
48.3
49.8
53.4
56.7
60.7
66,8
72.7

44.5

39.0
40.0
38.4
44.4
45.9

39.8
39.1
39.0
44.5
45.5

40.6
49.3

41.6
49.4

42.2
48.2

43.1
46.6

43.5
46.5

44.0
46.2

45.3
46.5

48.3
52.8
56.4
59.8
65.5
71.7

48.9
52.7
56.6
60.0
66.0
72.0

49.5
53.2
56.4
60.4
66.6
72.4

50.0
53.3
56.5
60.8
66.9
72.5

49.9
53.6
57 . 1
61.0
67.0
73.2

50,9
53.7
57,5
60.2
67,7
73.7

77.4
80.6
79.0
79.2
86.3
93.8
94.3
82.5
92.1
99.6
105.8
110.9
106.2
111.2
103.6
106.9
121.0

77 .7
81.3
78.8
79.5
86.5
94.5
94.6
83.6
92.2
100.4
106,9
110.9
105.0
112.0
103.0
107.8
121.9

77.6
81.8
79.0
79.3
86.4
95.1
94.2
84.1
92.7
100.7
107.5
110.5
104.8
113.4
102.5
109.8
122.8

77.8
82.0
78.8
78.8
87.6
95.1
93 . 9
85.6
93 . 2
101.0
107.7
110,2
106 ,3
112.8
102 .0
111 ,6
123.0

78.1
81 .9
78.3
80 . 1
88.5
95,8
94.2
86 .4
93.5
101.4
108.3
110 . 4
107 .7
111.5
101 .3
113.7
122.4

78.3
82.0
76.7
80 . 7
89.8
96,1
93.6
86.9
93.9
101.8
109.2
IIUO
108.5
110.4
100.5
114.4
122.1

79.
81,
76,
81.
90.
96.2
90.9
87.7
95.4
102.1
109.9
111.0
110.7
109.0
100.6
114.8
122.7
124.8

79.5
81.0
78.0
82.0
91.8
94.7
87.1
88.4
96.2
102.1
110,8
111.0
111.0
107.4
100.5
115.5
122.7
125.6

76.2
80.6
79.4
78.5
84.
92.
93,
83.
90.
97,
102.
110.
111.
111.
106 . 1
103.3
119.2
123.1

77.2
80,9
79.0
79.2
86 , 4
93.9
94.0
82.9
91.8
99.7
106 . 1
110.6
106.8
111.3
103.7
106.8
121,1
123.5

50.8
-21.0
0.0
8.6
30,6
-9.9
11.7

13.2
-11.3
17.0
21,0
11.1
-16.9
14.7

27'. 6
-23.9
20.4
2.7
-10.0
-23.7
41.8

6.2
-26.7
16.5
5.5
20.1
-22.0
0,0

0.0

-16.2

-20.0

8.1
7.2
-4.0
26 . 8
-0.7
2.1
-18.9
22,0
5.4

2.3
8.7
-14.7
13.3

4.6
4.3
42.4
5.4

0.0
-2.1
14.4
15.1

17.4
16.4
-11.1
-7.5
6.1
15.7
1.3
-29.6

13.5
3.1
-2.9
32.3
14.2
12.6
-17.2
-40.1

-5.0

9.3
-11.2
-9.1
7.6

8.0
0.0
27.2
-14.2
1 .2
4.3

10.3
0.0
3.3
-16.3
-1.2
7 .6

4.0
1 .6
1.5
2.2
-4.4
15.8

-6.6
1.0

12.3
6.9

8.0

3.3
-5.8

44.6

44.6

44.9

41.3
46.9
50.2
46.3
52.5
54.9
58.5
63.8
70 .0

40.8
47.6
49.7
46.6
52.8
55.3
58.5
64.7
70.9

40,2
48.6
49,3
47,5
52.9
55 .8
59.5
64.9
71.0

76.2
80.5
79.4
78.4
84.4
93.1
93 .0
83.5
90.9
97.2
101 .6
110.9
111.4
111.2
107.0
103.3
119.3

76.5
81.2
79,3
78.4
85.1
93.1
93.4
82.0
90.7
98.0
103 .0
111.2
111.4
111.6
105 . 8
104.2
119.9

76 .6
80.9
79.1
78.8
86.5
93.4
93.2
82.7
91 .1
99.0
105.5
109.9
109.1
110.6
104.5
105.6
120.5

Q

IV Q

Annual

1

77.8
81,9
78.7
79.4
87.5
95.3
94.1
85.4
93.1
101.0
107 .8
110 . 4
106.3
112.6
101 . 9
111.7
122.7
124.0

39.6
39.1
39.0
44.5
45.9
43,9
44.9
47 .3
47.1
51,6
53.8
57.6
61.6
68.2
73.4
75.1
79.0
81.4
77.0
81.3
90.8
95.7
90.5
87.7
95.2
102.0
110.0
111.0
110.1
108,9
100.5
114.9
122.5
124.7

37.2
40,4
38.2
43,0
44.9
45.5
42.6
47 .7
48.8
49.1
53.2
56.3
60,1
66.1
72.0
73.5
77.6
81.2
78,5
79.6
87.3
94,4
93.0
64.8
92.6
100.0
106.5
110.7
108.6
111 .0
103.1
109.2
121.4
123.8

6.2
10.8
6.5
13.5

-10.5
2 .1
2,3
12.2
-4.0
-5.6
10.1
16.5
-7.6
21.3
-0 .7
9.8
11 .0
8 ,4

49.0
-3.4
0,0
5 .8
20.0
-0.6
19.7
-20.5
-6.3
8.7
7 ,1
3.8
6.8
6 .3

15.7
-20.6
18.0
9.7
7.1
-20.9
18.8
34.1
-12.1
19.1
2,3
3.6
14.0
11.3

-4,5
2,7
8,8
-7 .7
2 .2
16.4

0 .9
6 ,6
0.7
-2.5
5.7
7 ,2

7 .0
2 .1
3.0
-2.4
3.8
9 .9

13.7
7.5
-4.2
1.0
9,9
15,8

15.6
= 3.7
4.1
13.6
5.6
-6.2
7.4
13.0
-5.1
12.9
3.7
7.0
9.6
9.8
6.8
4.3
4.7
2.1
-2.9
5,4
12.3
3.5
-6.7
2.7
9.1
6.2
8.9
0.4
1.3
-2.7
-6.0
15,2
7,2
2,8

PERCENT)

6.2
-6.1
31.0
5.5
-5.1
-20.2

6.1

9.3

6.1

6.0

-5.7

19.1
0.0

-8.3
0,0

15.9
-7.7
13.9
-22.8

0.0
-2.6
-13 .6

8,4
-14.5
-16 .3

-10.2
-5.1
12.6

-10.3
2.7
33.9

-30.2
8.2
18,7

59.6
0.0
28. 8

36.7
1.8
-8.8
9.3
10.9
14.3
12.9
6.7
0.0
7.8
-20.1
9.6
29.8
0.0
-16.4
-27.5

-9.1
-2.6
20.2
14.1
8.6
7 .8
9.0
-13 .7
3.2
7 .8
-1.5
-3.0
8.9
18.4
-3.8
-16.9

-11.3
8. 1
7,1
9.1
0.0
18.3
16 . 6
-6.4
4.8
10 ,9
-1.5
0 .0
10 .4

-9.2
25.8
2.3
11.4
22.6
3,, 8
1.7
12.2
1.6
-4.3
-3 .0
6.
21 .

0,0
22.2
-2.2
13.7
6.2
11.7
12.5
-9.4
13.3
-4.4
-1.5
6.3
-2.7

-13.7
16.0
-2,2
4.3
4.1
9.6
5.1
0.0
4.8
10.9
-3.0
4.6
2.8

-4.8
15.8
12.0
-4.2
8.3
11.5
6.9
-3.3
-1.5
7.6
3.1
-3.0
-1.4

-2,4
12.8
2.3
2 .1
8.2
5.5
1.7
25.9
3 .1
3.0
-3,0
-7,3
18.0

-11.7
-2.4
7.0
13.5
4.0
1 ,8
-1.6
4.7 '
-1.5
-7.4
21.7
13,0

10.2
3.1
1-.5
-21.9
9.4
19.1

5.3
-19.5

-2.
10.

15.1
-2.9

3.9
17.2

-5.0
7.4

-3 .8

3.9

-7.4

3.8
-5.7

9.1
0.0

10.3
17.8

13.
33.

7.5
3.5

10.1
13.2

6.9

2.3

6.9

10.4

3.3
0.0
-20.2
26.7

1 .1
2.2
19.8
9.8

0 .0
4.4
-12 .7
11 .0

-22 .
-10.
-13.
17.

-27 .6
6.7
-9,9
15,8

-12.7
9.0
-6.7
10.6

-2.3
16.1
-5.7
24.7

18.6
-6 . 2
-5.7
21.5

3.0
5.9

5.0
-8.2

2.0
-15.1

-1.
11.

3.0
-4.7

0.0
0.0

-1.9
7.0

10.2
1 .9

9.3
6.2
-10.8
21.0
0.9
9.1
-21.7
14.9
35.8
-7.4
6.3
7.6
5.7
12.1
12.3
-2 .2

8.0
7 .2
-4. 1
26 .6
-0.9
1 .7
-18.9
21.9
3.3
2.4

7.1
-4.2
21 . 3
0 .0
-1.7
-17 .7
24.6
-9.9
9.8

7.1
-3.1
22 .2
-0 . 9
-7.5
-6.6
22 . 1
-7 ,0
18.4

2.0
2.1
12.0
-4.4
-5.9
8.1
16.0
-7.8

6.0
4.3
9.8
-17.4
1.8
21.4
-3.3
-6.3

1 .0
2.1
3.8
0.0
3.6
27.0
-20.2
-7.1

10.8
6.4
13 .4
12.8
-4.8

11.5
10.0
.8
.9
- .2

9.2
11.1
10.1
-1.6

10.7
8.3
6.4
0.6

6.2
10.9
8.1
-4.3

6.9
8.8
4.5
6.8
2 .1

6.2
-8.6
12.1
17.3
10.0
-12.7
-28.8
15.4
7.8
-1.9
3.7
1.4
1.8
-7.1
11.2
16.6
1,0
1.6

8.8
-8.1
2 .1
16 .0
5.8
-5.4
- 2 1 .4
10 .8
7 .7
3 .6
1.5
1 .4
2.2
-5 .8
15.6
16 .9
2.3
-6.2

- .0
.0
1 .5

-2.0
4.1
9,3

-2,5
5.7
6,7

-0.5
2 .6
-0.5

- .4
- ,5
.3
1 .8
1 .3
- .4
- .7
- .4
- .4
1 .7
8.0
2 .0
-4.7

5.7
-4.7
5 .4
10.2
17.6
0.0
-17 .4
0 .0
-12.1
14.7
6.9
1 .3
-3.5

5.2
8.0
6.8
10.2
16.0
-1,1
-21,1
1.4
-10.2
14.6
7.5
0.6
2.0

4.4
6.9
7.2
7.0
7 .8
2.2
-14.9
10.5
-7 .4
16.9
8.5
0.3
0.6

17.0
-13.0
-7.9
25.1
-1.0
0.0

-1.6

-25.7

16.7
-0.6
-20.8
1.8
-10.1
14.6

5.4
-1.7
11.1
-1.0
-6.4
23.8

0.7
2.2

2 .4
3.0

9.6
2.2
13.3
-13.9
-3.0
6.5
0.1
4.6

5.5

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

PERCENT)

-20.9
18.0
9,5
6.3
-20.9
17.6
26.4
-12.5
18.8

-19.4
22.5
4.6
0.9
-22.0
19.5
43.9
-11.9
6.4

6 .8
-6 .4
23.0
0.0
3,0
-19.
20 .
9.
1.

5.0
1 .1
14.7
-7.6
-3.9
7 .6
11 .6
-7 .0
19.2

-5 .8
2 .5
6.3
15.2
-2.2
21 .6
-19,1
-6.1
11.7

3.5
11.6
11.2
0.5
13.7
7.4
-4.3
-1.5
9.8
15.8
-26.9
9.6
12.1

4.2
23.0
11.1
0.0
10.1
9.0
-11 .6
10.3
16.3
9.2
-11.2
-32.6
11.5
11.5

8.4
2.9

9.6
2.2

4.1
1.1

10.
7 .
11.
11 .
-3.
3.
6.
-6 ,
5.
15,6
7.7
-6.2
-19.9
11.5
8.8
6.0
1 .3

8.5
8.7
10.1
8.2
-1.8
6.0
1.8
-1 .7
4. 1
5.2
5.6
5.1
3.4
6.5
9.1
13.8
0.4

-12.8
-5.4
12.0
-0.3
1.3
2.6

-13.9
-3.1
6.5
0.0
4.2

-16.9
8.2
14.7
3.0
8.7

0.9
-5.4
13,2
13.8
1.8
-3.1

4.0
-9.9
15.4
7.6
0,7
-0.3

4.1
4.1
7.3
6.2
8.0
2 .6
3.7
-4.9
2 .8
10.8
5.2
-2 .0
14.7
5.3
4.7
6.4
-0.8
8.7
-2 .0
-6.7
20.1
3.1
1.8
2.3

-4.8
0.0
5.7
13.3
-0 . 9
19.6
-21.5
-6.4

-13 .7
5 .4
9.5
32.3
-9.2
18.2
-15.6
-4.9
11.8

-18.9
12.1
10.5
9.3
-17.0
22.0
-0.9
-9.6
1 .3

-1.0
-2.0
6.2

.6
.8
.2
.8
.2
.1
.0
- .5
.1
.6

8.0
-1.3
6,8
7.4
10 . 9
3 .7
1.0
-11.1
7.3
16.7

.8
.1
.7
.9
8.4 '
7.9
-3.8
-12,6
12.2
15.9

-1.7
15.9
4.9
5.7
7 .4
-2.5

- .7
1 .1
.8
.0
.3
- .8

-2.5
14.0
5.3

-12.2
10.2
9.8

6,5
1.8

5.9
-6.0
18.8
7.5
2.6
2.9

-1.8
-6.4
23.8
3.3
2 .3
2.9

-10 .2
-7.6
17 .8
-1.6
0 .6
1 .0

]
T h i s ser es conta ns r e v i s i o n s b e g i n n i n g w i t h 1984. 2 T h i s series c o n t a i n s r e v i s i o n s b e g i n n i n g w i t h 1985. Percent changes are centered w i t h i n
the spans: 1-month changes are p l a c e d on the 2d month and 3-month changes are p l a c e d on the 3d month. Q u a r t e r l y and a n n u a l f i g u r e s are a v e r a g e s
of the centered changes.




ill

ERIOD
38.6
40.4
37.9
43 . 7
45.5

( A N N U A L RAT E ,
1952.. .
1953..,
1954. ..
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958.. .
1959...
I960.. .
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966..,
1967. ..
1968. ..
1969. ..
1970.. .
197 1 . . .
1972...
1973. .,
1974,.,
1975. ..
1976...
1977. .,
1978., .
1979. ,.
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985. . .
1986. ..

Oct.

37.3
41.2
37.9
43 . 4
44.5

35.9
41.1
37.7

(ANNUAL RATE,
1952,.,
1953.. .
1954...
1955...
1956.. .
1957 . . .
1958...
1959...
I960.. .
1961...
1962.. .
1963...
1964. . .
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970.. .
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974..,
1975...
1976.. .
1977. . .
1978...
1979...
1980, .,
1981. . .
1982...
1983.. .
1984...
1985,..
1986.. .

Sept.

35.0
41.5
37.9
43.4
42.8

36.3
40.9
37.5

'

Aug.

35.6
40,9
37.9
43.1
44.1

36.6
40 . 7
37 .7

36.5
40 .4
38.0

July

INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION'
(1977=100)

19.3
-19.7
17.5
8.2
5.5
-20.0
19.7
23.
-11.
13.

1

!

12.
13.
-3,
-23.
10.
11.
2,
7.
2.
13.3
-14.5
-0.1
11.1
0.9
4.7

12.8
-3.4
3.7
13,0
3.3
-5,7
7.4
9.0
-3.7
11 .4
.3
.0
,6
,7
.8
3.4
5.1
1.4
-3.5
6,2
1 .3
.7
- .7
.2
.6
6.2
8,4
0.7
0.6
-=•2.9
-5.5
14.9
6.4
2.3

( D E C E M B E R 1986)

99

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Sept.

Aug.

Nov.

Dec.

44.0
42.9
40,5
46.9
48.0
44.9
45.0
45.2
45.8
50.9
53.8
57 .7
62.7
70.7
77.3
78.9
82.4
83.4
73,0
78.7
91.3
98.9
92.6
84.5
94.0
102.2
113.0
113.0
112.0
107.5
96.2
114.9
126.5
128.2

44.5
41.5
41.2
47.4
48.9
43.2
45.1
50.1
44.4
51.7
54.0
57.7
64.2
72.2
77.8
79.8
83.0,
82.5
76.0
79.4
92.3
96.8
87.7
85.6
95.1
103.9
114.4
113.3
111.8
105.6
96.5
116.3
126.5
128.7

Oct.

I Q | II Q

7 3 . INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION. DURABLE MANUFACTURES
(1977-100)

1952...
1953,..
1954.,,
1 9 5 5 . ..
1956. . .
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965. ,.
1966.. .
1967.. .
1968., ,
1969,, ,
1970,.,
1971.. .
1972.. ,
1973...
1974.. .
1975.. .
1976.. .
1977. . ,
1978,.,
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985.. ,
1986, ..

38.6
45.3
40.6
42.3
47.1
48.7
41.8
45.9
52.0
44.4
51.0
54.3
58.2
64.8
73.1
77.5
79.7
83.4
79.7
76.7
81,9
93.1
94.8
84.8
86.9
95.3
102.4
114.0
112.7
111.4
101.9
98.7
119.9
126,6

38.9
45.6
40.3
43.0
46.7
49.2
40.4
46.9
51,5
44.0
52.0
54.7
58.5
65.4
73.7
76.7
79.9
83.8
79,6
76.8
82,8
94.6
94.2
82.6
89.1
96.1
102.3
114.8
113.3
111.3
103.8
100.1
120.9
126.4

39.1
46.2
39.6
44.2
46.7
48.9
39.6
48.0
50.4
44.1
52.4
55.0
58.7
66.5
74.7
76.2
79.6
84.4
79,6
76.5
83.4
94.6
94.1
80.9
88.8
97.1
103.7
115.2
113.1
112.0
103,0
101.8
121.8
127.3

38.6
46.3
39.3
44.9
47.7
48.2
38.7
49.4
49.6
45.7
52.8
55.7
59.5
67.1
75.6
76.3
79.8
84.2
79.0
76.6
85.1
95.0
94.1
81.2
89,3
98.5
106.4
112.1
109.9
111.8
101,7
103.3
122.8
127.5

38.9
46.3
39,5
45.9
46.7
47 .5
39.1
50.5
49.2
46 .7
52.4
56.5
59.7
67.8
75.9
76.4
80.9
83.3
78.8
77.5
85.0
95.5
95.6
80 .5
91.1
99.4
106.7
114.5
106.2
112.5
100.9
104.7
123,3
127.4

37.1
45,9
39.6
45.9
46.5
48,3
40.5
50.9
48.1
47.5
52.1
56.7
59.9
68.4
76 .3
76 . 1
81 .1
84.2
78.5
77.2
85.0
96.5
96.1
80.5
90.8
100.3
107.9
114.8
104.2
112.4
100.5
105.9
124.5
127 .0

7 4 . INDEX OF I N D U S T R I A L P R O D U C T I O N ,
(1977-100)

1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956. , ,
1957...
1958. ..
1959. . .
I960,,,
1961.. .
1962.. .
1963...
1964,. .
1965,,,
1966.,,
1 9 6 7 . ..
1968. .,
1969.. .
1970. ..
1971. ..
1972...
1973. . .
1974...
1975...
1 9 7 6 . ..
1977...
1978.. .
1979,. .
1980.. .
1981.. .
1982...
1983...
1984.
1985!!!
1986, ..

32.6
34.8
34.2
37.3
40.9
41.6
40.9
47 ,8
46.7
50.6
52.7
56,5
60.8
64,3
68.0
70.4
74.6
76.5
77.3
84.1
88.9
90.7
81.9
90.5
97.1

107.1
109.6
109.4
105.5
107 .5
119.9
122.6

32.7
35.2
34.4
37.5
40.9
42.0
40.7
45.5
47.4
46.9
51,3
53.3
56 .8
60.9
64.5
67.2
70.8
75.6
76.8
77.2
84.3
89.8
90.7
80.9
92.2
98,1

32.7
35.3
34.6
38.3
40,8
42.1
40.6
45.6
47.6
47.3
51.6
53.8
56.6
61,3
65.4
67.0
71,4
76.2
76.2
77.2
85.0
90.3
91.7
78.9
91.7
98.6

107.2
109.2
109.8
107 .0
108.2
123.' 5

H5&!!!
1957...

1959! !!

I960..,
1961 ...
,1963.'!!
1964,.,
1965...
1966..,
1967.. .
1968.. .
1969. , ,
1970. ..
1971.. .
1972.. .
1973.. .
1 9 7 4 . ..
1975. ..
1976. ..
1 9 7 7 . ..
1978. . .
1979..,
1980.,,
1981.,.
1982...
1983.,.
1984...
1985.. ,
1986.,,

32.4
35.7
34.8
39.1
40.8
41 .7
40 ,8
46 . 3
47.8
48.1
51.7
54.6
58.3
61.5
65.9
66.6
72.1
76.1
76.2
78.1
85.6
90.6

NONDURABLE M A N U F A C T U R E S

38.9
45.7
40.2
43.2
46.8
48.9
40.6
46.9
51.3
44.2
51.8
54.7
58'.5
65.6
73.8
76.8
79.7
83.9
79.6
76.7
82.7
94.1
94.4
82.8
88.3
96.2
102.8
114.7
113.0
111.6
102,9
100.2
•
120,9
126.8

.

35.1
33,8
36.9
40.9
41,6
41.2
44.0

34.2
34.9
35.6
39.5
41.1
42.1
43.1

34.6
34,6
35.9
40.0
41.4
41,6
43,4

35.0
34.3
36.3
40.5
41 .2
41 .2
44.0

47 .1
49.3
51.9
55.1
58.7
62.4
66.6
68.3
73.2
77.0
75.8
79.7
87.2

47.0
49.3
52.3
55.4
58.7
62.7
66.7
68.7
73.6
76.6
76.2
80.6
87.4

47.2
50.3
52.0
55.6
59.1
63.1
66.8
69.4
73.7
76.6
76.2
81.5
88.0
92.1
89.9
88.5
95.3
101.0

46.7
50.9
52.4
55.9
59.3
63.5
67.1
70,0
74.7
76.7
76.0
82.0
88.5
92,0
87.5
89.4
95.5
101.9

46.5
51.2
52.5
55.9
59.9
63.9
67.2
1
70.6
1
74.0 1
76.9
1
76.7
1
82.8
89.5
90.5
84.0
90.0
96.2
101,8

32.7
35.1
34.4
37.7
40,9
41.9
40,7

32.8
35.5
34.8
38.9
40.8
41.6
40.9

33.9
35.2
35.3
39.2
41.0
42.0
42.7

47.7
48.2
51.6
54.5
58.1
61.5
65.7
67.1
71.9
76.0
76.2
78.3
86.0
90.6
91.3
81.9
92.0
99.9
105.5
108.3
105.2
110,6
104.8
112,1

47.2
49.2
52.1
55.0
58.6
62.4
66.6
67.8
73.0
76.9
76.3
80.0
86.9
91.4
91.3
86 .4
93.3
100.6
106.5
108,4
105.8
110 .9
105.3
116.4
125.9

87,6
94.6
100.6

108.8
104.9
110.7
104.8
112 .4

108.'?
105.6
110.8
105.5
116.2

ios!o

107.6
110.0
105.7
118.0

108|9
107 !3
108.6
105.5
117,9

10s!6
10?!?
107.9
1P5.7
117.9

ioe!4
108.4
106.3
105.0
117.5

124.7

124,8

125.4

126.0

126.4

12s!a

127 !2

127 .5

123.3 •

124.5

107 .9
107.0
110,3
105.0
110,6

123!?

124,1

INDEX O F I N D U S T R I A L P R O D U C T I O N , C O N S U M E R GOODS
( 1977-100)

34.3
38.2
36.5

34.3
38.1
6,5

34.3
38.3
36.7

42!§
44.2

42!9
44.4

s!o

46! 9
50.3
48.4
52.9
55.8
59.2
63.9
67.4
70.0
72.7
76.7
75.8
78.9
84.9
89.8
88.2
80.8
90.5
98.0
100.1
105.4
103.2
104.4
100.7
103.0
116.8
118.0

47 ,2
49.7
48.7

47,2
49.8
48.7

56.4
59.1
64.1
67.6
69.1
73.1
77.3
76.5
78.8
85.2
91,1
87.5
80.9
92.3
98.5
101.6
105,0
103.6
104.3
101 .9
103.7
117.3
119.1

56*. 7
58,8
64,6
68.1
69.3
73.5
77.9
76.4
79.1
85.5
91.2
88.7
80.4
91 .5
98,4
102,9
105.5
104.1
104.7
101 .7
104.5
117.2
119.3

8.0
0 .1
9.8
54.1
56.9
60.3
64.5
68.3
70 .5
73.4
76.7
76.8
79.7
87.2
91.0
88.5
82.6
91.8
99.0
104.2
03.1
02.5
04.4
01.2
06.2
18,2
18.9

39.0
46.0
39.1
46 .4
45.6
47.9
41.6
46 .2
47.7
48.8
53,0
56.6
61,1
69.8
77,0
76.4
80.6
84.6
77.8
76.4
86.4
97.3
95.5
82.4
92.1
101.6
110 , 1
113 .6
105.7
112.8
99.3
110.9
126.0
•
127.5

43.8 .
43.0
40,5 ,
47.2
48.3
44.8
44.2
46.6
45.7
50.8
53.8
57.6
62.2
71,1
77.9
78.6
82,2
83 .6
74.2
78.9
91.1
98.0
91.8
84.7
93.7
102.8
113.1
113 ,3
111 .0
107.7
96.3 ,
115.2
126.4
127.9

10 8 '.6
107.8
107 .6
105.4
117.8

33,6
35.0
35.2
39.
41.
41.
42.
46 .
4?!
48.
51.
54.
58.
62.
66.
68.
72.
76.
76.
79.
86.
90.
90.
84.
93.1
100.0
105.5
108.2
107.0
109.7
105,5
113.7

126.8

125.1

34.9
34.2
36.4
40.5
41.4
41. 3
43.8 .
46 . 7
46! 8 ;
50.8
5 2 , 3 :<
55.8
59.4
63.5
67.0
70.0
74.1
76.7
76.3
82.1
88.7
91.5
87.1
89.3
95.7
101.6

AVERAGE FOR P E R I O D

37.0

34.6
37,8
37.1

35,3
37.5
37.1

36.2
37,0
37.5

36.8
37.0
37.6

37.5
36.4
38.4

37.5
35.9
39.1

34.1
38.1
36.3

34.6
38.0
36.7

35.4
37.4
37.2

37.3
36.4
38.4

4 2 !s
44!o

42!?
44.2

42,8
44.4

43.0
44.6

43.0
44.6

43.3
43,9

43.1
43.8

43.4
43.5

42.9
44.1

42.8
44.0

l'.$
4!s

43! 3
43.7

48.2
50 .4
50 .4

48.0
50.1
50.9
54.0
57 .4
60.6
65.0
68.6
69.3
74.2
77.0
77.4
80.4
86 .7
91.3
89.9
84.7
92.9
99.7
105 .4
104.3
99.9
104.7
101.8
108.8
118.2
119.9

48.6
49.6
51.4
55.0
57 .2
61.5
65.0
68.5
69.2
74.1
78.4
77 .5
81.6
86.3
91.2
89.2
86.5
93,3
100.3
105.4
103.2
101.0
105.1
101.7
110.3
118,9
119,4

48.7
49.7
51.7

48.5
49.5
50.9

48,3
50.0
52.3

47.2
49.1
53,2

57 .7
61.4
65.0
68.3
69.9
74.9
78.2
76.2
80.7
87.8
91 .1
89.7
87.1
93.9
101 .3
105.3
102.6
102.1
104.9
102.0
1L2.2
117.9
120.9

57.8
60.7
66.0
68.5
70.0 ,
75.2
77.6
75.9
81.4
88.2
92.7
89.4
87.9
93.5
100.6
105.5
102.8
103.5
103.3
101.0
113,4
117.6
121.1

58.2
59,5
66,3
69.9
71.0
75.7
77.7
75.0
82.5
89.3
92.2
89.1
87,9
93.9
101.3
105.4
102.9
103.8
103.3
100.9
113.6
118.1
120.5

58,3
61.7
66.6
69.6
72.5
76.7
77,0
74.5
83.2
89.7
92.1
86.6
88.8
96.4
101.7
105.4
103.1
104.3
102.7
101,3
113.6
119.1
122.7

48.8
48.8
53,3
55.1
58.6
63.0
67.1
69.4
73.7
76.3
77.1
77.7
83.7
90.7
89.5
84.3
89.5
97.2
102.4
106.1
103.2
104.1
101 .6
101.1
114,4
119.1
123.3

57 !o
60.7
64.9
68.3
69.1
73 ,8
76.1
77.2
79.8
86.3
91.1
89.2
83.0
92 .9
99. 1
104.1
105.0
100 .2
105.4
101.3
107.8
117 .4
119.7

NOTE: Those series contain revisions beginning with 1984.

35.2
37 .7

40.0
45.2
39.9
45.6
47'. 1
47.4
41.5
47 .7
48.5
47 .6
52.8
56.3
60.3
68.6
76.2
77.0
80.8
84.0,
77.6
77,3
86.3
96.3
94.3
82.6
91.1
100.0
108.2
113.9
109.1
111,1
99.9
107,7
124.2
127.3

AVERAGE FOR P E R I O D

•

33.9
35.2
35.1.
38.9
41.0
42.0
42.8

86.4
92.4
101.2

107.9
108.4
109.9
106.3
109.4

l'.9

38.2
,46.2
39.5
45.6
47.0
48.0
39.4
50.3
49.0
46.6
52.4
56.3
59.7
67.8 •
75.9
76.3
80.6
83.9
78,8
77.1
85.0
95.7
95,3
80.7
90.4
99.4
107.0
113,8
106.8
112.2
101.0
104.6
123.5
127.3

'
.

33.6
35.5
35.1
39.2
40.8
42.0
42 .1
46 . 9
47.6
48.9
52.0
54.4
58.5
62.1
66,6
66.5
72.3
77 .1
76,8
79.7
86.0

Annual

IV Q

AVERAGE FOR P E R I O D
42.8
44,7
39.7
47 .2
48.1
46.2
42.5
44.6
47.0
49.7
53.5
57,5
59.7
70.4
78.7
77.0
81.2
85.0
73.6
78.6
89.6
98.4
95.2
84.0
91.9
102.3
111.9
113.7
109.2
109.9
96.3
114.4
126.1
126.7

85.3
92.9
100.1
106 . 3
108.6
104.3
111.8
104.7
114.9

34.2
38.2
36.4

100

46.4
39.1
46,5
46.2
48.3
41.8
45.3
47.9
49.4
53.0
56.4
61,0
69.7
76.8
76.8
80.6
84,7
78.2
75.1
86.4
96.9
95.4
82.6
92.8
101.8
110.1
113.1
105.9
113.5
99.3
110.9
126.6
128.1

41.9
45.2
39.1
46.4
47,6
47.4
42.3
44.9
47 .1
48.6
53.4
56.9
61.6
69.8
77.6
76.5
80.4
84.8
76.7
77.2
87.6
98.0
95.8
83.5
91.8
102.1
110.9
113.5
107.4
111.3
98.1
113.1
125.8
127 .4

84.0
92.2
100.2
106.4
108.2
103.8
110,7
104.7
113.4

81.2
92.1
100.0

33.9
37.9
36.0
39.9
43.0
43.7




33.3
35.4
35.0
39.2
40.5
41.6
41.7
46 . 1
47.5
48.6
51.7
54.6
58,1
61.8
66.0
66.9
72.3
76.2
76.1
78.8
86.3

39.9

47.6
47.0
51.2
53.3
56.6
61.0
64.7
67.4
70.9
75.5
76.5
77.2
84.5
89.7
91.0
80.6
91.5
97.9
102.5
107.4
109.1
109.7
106.3
108.4

80.5
91.7
99.4

75.
1952...
1953.. .
1954...
1 95 5 i

32.7
35.4
3 4. ,6
38.5
41 .1
41.5
40 ,3
46 . 1
47 .7
47 .9
51.5
54.4
57 .9
61,2
65.1
67.9
71,4
75.8
76.4
78.0
86.0
90.4

35.3
46.5
39.2
46.2
42.9
48.0
40.8
48.4
48.1
48.4
52.6
56.5
60.6
69.8
76 .6
75.8
80.7
84.4
78,4
76 .8
85.3
97.0
95.3
81 ,0
91 .8
101.0
109.2
114.2
103.9
113.7
100.5
108.6
125.5
126.9

III Q

47,1
49.9
48.6
53 . 2
56.3
59.0
•
64.2
67.7
69,5
73,1
77.3
76.2
78.9
85.2
90.7
88.1
80.7
91.4
98.3
101.5
105.3
103.6
104.5
101.4
103 .7
117.1
118,8

48.1
50.2
50.4
54.2
57,1
60,5
64,8
68.4
69.6
73,8
76.6
77.1
80.0
86.7
91.1
89.2
83.4
92.5
99.3
104.6
104.1
100.9
104.8
101.4
107 .6
117.9
119.5

8.6
9,6
51.3
54.7
57.6
61.2
65.3
68.4
69.7
74.7
78.1:
76.5
81.2
87.4
91.7
89.4
87.2
93.6
100.7
105.4
102.9
102,2
104.4
101 .6
112 .0
118.1
120,5

48.1
49.3
52.9
54 . 9
58.4
61.4
66.7
69.6
72.4
76.2
77.3
75.7
83.1
89.9
91.3
86.7
88.7
95.8
101.8
105.6
103.1
104.1
102.5
101 , 1
113.9
118.8
122.2

35.4
37.5
37.3
41 . 6
43,1
44.2
43.8
48.0
49.8
50.9
54.3
57.3
60.5
65.3
68.6
70,3
74.5
77.3
76,4
80.8
87.3
91.2
88.4
84.9
93.3
100.0
104.3
103.9
102.7
104.1
101.4
109.3
118,0
120.2

(DECEMBER 1986)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
, Year

Jan,

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

35.0
36.4
31.0
35.2
40.6
41.5
34.8
40 .4
39.6
40.0
43,6
45.7
51.2
59.2
68.9
67.5
71.6
77.0
72.0
70.5
80.8
95.6
99.1
85.0
89.4
102.5
115.5
126.4
124.5
127 .9
110.3
120.8
137.0
140 .4

35.3
36.4
30.9
36.8
41.0
40.4
35.3
40,1
39.3
39.9
43.7
46.5
50.8
60.1
68.7
66.9
72.2
77.2
69.7
71.2
82.4
96.5
98.7
85.3
90.1
102.7
116.8
126.3
126,0
126.3
108.6
120.7
137.8
138.3

35.8
35.2
31.5
37.0
41.6
39.4
35.9
39.5
39.2
41.0
43 .7
46.8
52.5
61.2
67.7
68.7
72.3
75.4
69.3
71.5,
84.5
96.6
98.0
86.1
93.1
103.2
119.0
125.5
127 .8
123.8
108.9
121.7
138.5
140.8

36.1
34.6
31.6
37.6
42 .1
38.2
36.2
40.1
38,3
41 .1
43.5
46 .7
53.5
62.5
68.7
69.4
73.0
75.2
70.2
71.9
85.1
94.4
92.2
86 .2
94.7
104.4
119.5
124,6
127.4
122.8
109.9
123,0
137 .0
140 ,0

34.7
36.6
33.1
32.2
38.4
43.2
36.3
37.4
41 .7
38.4
41.6
43.6
48,0
54.2
64.1
68.2
69.9
74.2
74.4
68.6
74.8
88.1
94.4
88.6
87,2
96,4
'105.6
123.4
126.1
127 .6
119.0
109.5
129.0
138.8

90.2
84.7
80.9
88.3
85.8
79.4
79.1
78.5
75.8
80.8
81.8
84.3
86.8
89.6
90.1
87.2
87.6
85.0
75.1
78.4
85.3
87.6
79.7

90.5
82 .3
81 .8
89.0
86.8
77.5
79.0
83.6
74.3
81 .6
81 .7
84.0
88.0
90.5
90,0
87 .6
87 .3
84.2 •
76.8
78.9
86.0
85.7
75.7

Sept.

Aug.

7 6 . INDEX OF I N D U S T R I A L P R O D U C T I O N , B U S I N E S S E Q U I P M E N T
(1977-100)

1952...
1953 . . .
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964. . .
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976 . . .
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985...
1986.. .

34.3
36.4
33.5
31.8
37.9
42.7
37.4
36.9
41.5
38.6
41.0
43.3
48.0
53.4
63,8
68.2
69.7
74.0
74.1
68.6
73.7
87.0
93.9
90.7
86.1
96.2
104.4
122.1
125.2
127.0
118.3
109.2
128.1
138.3

35.0
34.7
36.6
36.8
32.6
33.1
32.3
32.6
38.4
38,8
43.4
43.6
36.1
35.3
37.8
37.4
41.8
41.9
38.2
38.3
42.1
41.6
43.6
43.9
47.7
48.3
55.0
54.3
63.6
64.8
68.3
68.1
70.3
69.7
74.0
74.7
74.4
74.6
69.0
68.3
76.0
74.8
88.4
88.9
94.2
95.0
86.4
88.8
87.9 , 87.6
96.6
96.5
107.4
105.1
123.6
124.5
127.1
126.0
128.0
127.9
118.8
119.8
109.4
110.0
128.7
130.2
139.2
138.9

35.1
34,9
36.6
36.9
32.1
32.0
34.2
33.7
39.8
40.0 ,
41.8
42.6
33.7
34.6
40.1
8,8
41.6
1.4
38.7
8.6
42.4
2.4
43.9
4.0
50.0
9.4
56.3
55.5
66.2
65.3
68.3
68.1
71.0
70.0
75.0
75.5
74.5
74.5
67.5
67.9
77.8
77.6
91.3
90.2
97.8
96.0
85.1
86.0
88.5
87 .7
98.4
98.3
109.8
109.8
125.2
122.7
123.0
125,3
128.9
128.3
115.0
116.8
112.4
111.5
132.6
130.6
140,8
140.7

82.

35.3
36.4
31.6
34.6
40.0
42.0
33.7
41 .0
41.0
39.0
42 .8
44.1
50.2
57.1
66.8
68.0
70.9
75.8
74.0
67. 8
78.1
92.6
98.0
84.6
88.1
99.5
111.8
125.4
121.8
130.3
113.3
113.4
134.6
138.5

33.6
37.0
31.5
34.7
40.0
42.2
33.9
41.1
40.5
39.2
43.2
44.7
50.8
58.1
67.9
66.6
70.2
76.5
73.8
67.9
77.7
93.3
98.3
84.2
89.1
100.8
112.6
125.2
123.2
131.1
113.2
114.6
135.9
139.5

34.2
36.8
31.3
34.9
40.5
42.1
34.5
40.7
40.0
39.4
43.6
45.8
50.8
58.1
68.2
67.8
70.8
76,2
73.6
68.9
79.0
93.6
96.7
85.1
89.3
100.7
114.3
124.4
123.9
128.7
110.1
117.7
138.5
141 .0

III Q | IV Q

II Q

Annual

AVERAGE F O R P E R I O D
35.1
36.6
31.9
34.2 ,
39,9
42.1
34.0
40.0
41.3
38.8
42.5
44.0
49.9
56.3
66.1
68.1
70.6
75.4
74.3
67.7
77.8
91.4
97.3
85.2
88.1
98.7
110.5
124.4
123.4
129.2
115.0
112.4
132.6
140.0

34.3
36.7
31.3
34.9
40,4
41.9
34.4
40.7
40.0
39.5
43,5
45.4
50.9
58.5
68.3
67.3
70.9
76.6
73.1
69.1
79.2
94.2
98.0
84.8
89.3
101.3
114.1
125.3
123.9
129.2
111.2
117 .7
137,1
1 40 . 3

-35.7
35.4
31.3
37.1
41.6
39.3
35.8
39,9
38.9
40.7
43.6
46.7
52.3
61.3
68.4
68.3
72.5
75.9
69.7
71.5
84.0
95.8
96.3
85.9
92.6
103.4
118.4
125.5
127.1
124.3
109,1
121 .8
137,8
139.7

34.9
36.3
31.9
34.6
40.1
41,7
35.2
39.5
40.6
39.4
42,8
44.9
50.3
57.6
66.7
68.0
71,0
75.6
.72.9
69.3
79.0
92 .4
96.5
86.1
89,3
100.0
112.2
124.7
125.1
127 .6
113.6
115.4
134.2
139.6

84.6
91.0
80.8
84.5
87.5

82.9
91,3
79.7
87.4
86.5

84.2
90.0
79,1
87.5
84,1

89.8
84.7
80.8
88.6
86.4

85.4
89.2
80.1
87,0
86:i

74.'l
81.4

7 2 . *4

78,2
80.1
75.9
80 . 7
81.6
84.2
86,5
90.0
90.6
86.9
87.2
85.1
75.9
78.5
85.2
87.0
79.2
74,3
78.7
82.2
86.0
83.3
79.3
75.3
68.2
77.4
80,6
79.9

75.'fl
81.6
Tj'.3
81.4
83.5
85 .6
89.5
91.1
86.8
87 .0
86 .7
79.2
77.4
82.8
87.0
82.6
72.2
77 .4
81,4
84.2
84.6
79.2
78,3
70.3
74.0
80.5
80.1

90.7
83.5
83.2
93.9
8V. 2
80.0
80.8
79.7
73.7
82.6
81,3
84.8
89.7
90.2
90 ,1
85.7
87.0
87.6
79.3
80.5
89.0
91.5
81.5
76.1
81.7
84.7
88.6
86,2
81.3
78.5
68,8
79.3
81.2
79.6

84.8
89.4
80.6
92 .0
89.4
84.7
75.4
82 . 9
79!s
77,9
81.5
83.8
87.8
91.0
91 ,4
85.1
86.8
88. 1
81.8
80.4
86 . 0
91 .1
86 .1
73 .4
80.2
84.1
86,3
87 .1
81.1
81.1
71.7
75,3
82.0
80,2

CAPACITY U T I L I Z A T I O N RATE, M A N U F A C T U R I N G
V run vcni /

1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956.. .

84.4
90.5
81.3
83.5
88.2

84.6
91.1
80.8
84.1
87.4

84.7
91.4
80.2
85.8
87.0

83.6
91.5
79.4
86.7
87.8

83.1

91.7
79.8
87.9
86.3

81.9
90.7
79.9
87.6
85.3

79.8
91 .0
79.4
87.7
81.5

85.1
90.6
78.8
87.3
84.9

87.7
88.3
79.2
87.5
86.0

1958.'.*.'
1959...

75.7
80.2

73*8
81.4

72*7
82.5

71.3
84.0

1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1 96 5 ...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985...
1986...

74.1
80.2
81.9
84.5
88.6
90.9
89.4
87.1
87.4
82.1
77.2
80.5
86.0

73.5
81.4
82.4
84.7
88.7
90.9
87.9
87.1
87.8
81.8
77.1
80.9
86.9

73.9
81.9
82.6
84.4
89.3
91.6
87.1
86.9
88.1
81.3
76.7
81.3
86.8

75.4
81.7
83.5
85.6
89.3
91.5
87.2
86 .7
87.4
80.7
76.9
82.5
86.8

71.9
84.9
81 . 5
76.4
81.3
84.0
85.6
89.4
91.6
86.2
87.4
86.7
80.2
77.2
82.1
86.9

73.9
84.8
80 . 2
77.3
80.9
83.9
85.4
89.5
91.5
85.7
87.3
86.9
79.7
77.2
82.1
87.2

73.2
75.5
79,5
81.8
85.8
82.8
79.5
71.9
69.5
79.4
80.2

74.3
83.0
79.7
78.1
81.5
83.3
85.9
90.3
91.4
84.9
86.7
87.2
79.6
77.1
81.9
87.4
83.5

75.7
79.5
79.1
79.0
81.4
83.5
86.1
89.9
91.1
86.1
86.8
86.9
78.8
76 .0
82.8
87.2
83.3

76.2
79.0
77.9
78.2
81.8
83 .8
86.2
89.6
91.2
85 .7
86 .5
86.5
77.9
77.3
83.3
87.4
83 .2

88.8
87.2
79.7
88.4
86.5
81.4
76.4
78.2
77.5
79.6
81 .4
84.3
84.6
89.8
91.6
86.0
86.7
86.2
75.9
78.3
84.4
87.7
82.2

77.0
80.1
81.5
85.9
82.7
79.4
73.0
70.1
80.0
80.2

76.5
80.4
82.1
86.0
82.1
79.5
72.3
70.9
80.3
80.4

76.5
81.1
83 .8
84.4
80 .1
79.3
71.3
71.8
80.5
80.4

77.3
81.5
83.8
85.4
77.7
79.5
70.7
72.6
80.4
80.3

77.1
81.8
84.5
85.1
76.3
79.2
70 .4
73.2
80.9
80 .0

77.6
81,8
84.8
84.7
76.1
79.8
70.2
74.6
81.3
79.9

77.7
82.4
85.0
84.0
77.1
79.2
69.8
75.7
81.2
80.3

77.8
82.1
85.3
83.7
78.1
77.9
69.3
76.9
80.6
80.0

77.9
82.0
85.5
83.8
78.6
76.7
68.4
77.3
80.7
79.4

78.8
82.0
85.9
83.1
79.7
75.3
68.2
77.3
80.7
80.1

79.4
82.5
86 .5
82 .9
79.6
73.8
68.0
77 .6
80.4
80.2

1952 . . .
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956 . . .
1957 . . .
1958...
1959. . .
1960...
1 96 1 ...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1 96 5 ...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1 96 9 ...
1970...
1971...
1 97 2 ...
1973...
1974...
197 5. ..
1976. ..
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980 . . .
1981 ...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985...
1986...

85.4
90.7
79.8
86.5
93,5
88.4
75.0
82 ,4
88.6
72.1
81.9
80.9
85.0
90.9
91.3
88.6
86.4
87.5
84.5
81.1
83 .6
89.8
89.2
75.3
77.7
81.8
83.5
87.7
86 .3
82.2
74.8
70.7
81.2
81.4

76.3
80 .0
81.8
85.9
82.5
79.5
72.4
70.2
79.9
80.3

77.0
81.5
84.0
85.0
78.0
79.3
70.8
72.5
80.6
80.2

75.4
80.5
78.9
78.4
81.6
83.5
86.1
89.9
91.2
85.6
86.7
86.9
78.8
76.8
82.7
87.3
83.3
72.6
77.7
82.1 .
85.0
84.1
77.1
79.0
69.8
75.7
81.0
80.1

85,5
91.3
79.6
88.3
92.8
88.2
72.6
84.8
86 .6
72.0
82.9
81.8
85.7
91.0
91.8
86 .6
86 .2
88.0
83.9
80.6
83 8
90 .2
88. 5
73.0
78.5
82.7
83.0
88. 1
85.7
82.3
75.1
71.4
81.8
81.3

79.7
92.4
79,8
92,4
90.8
85.4
71.0
89.5
80^9
76.5
81,1
85.0
87.1
91.2
92.0
84.1
87,2
,88.1
,82.1
81.2
85.3
90.9
87.6
71.1
80.0
84.6
86.3
87.5
80.1
81. i72.4
73.6
82.4
80.3

83,5
90.4
79.7
93.4
85.0
85.3
77.1
77.8
78.0
80.7
80.7'
83,6
88.7
91.7
91.8
84.1
86.7
88. ,6
81.9
79.4
85.9
91.8
86.9
73.3
80.9
84.6
87.2
86.6
77.4
82.7
70.5
77.0
82.7
79.7

73!8
81,2
82.3
84.5 •
88.9
91.1
88. 1
87 .0
87,8
81,7
'77.0 •
80.9
86.6
84.1
•

84.6
76^
81.3
83.8
85.5
89.4
91.5
86.4
87.1
87.0
80.2
77.1
82 .2
87,0
83.9

,

(PERCENT)

85.8
91.3
80.0
88.0
92.7
88.6
72.2

92.0
79.0
90.3
92.1
87.6
70.7

92.5
78.8
91.3
92.6
86.0
69.2

92.6
80.1
92.5
90.5
84.9
70.1

92.0
80.5
93.5
89.2
85.4
73.8

92.1
79.5
93.5
77.9
85.4
74.4

90.9
79.6
92 ..8
86.6
85.8
77.4

88.9
. 88.2
80.1
93.8
90.5
84.6
79.5

89.9
86 .0
81 .8
93.8
89.6
82.5
79.5

91.1
83.7
83,4
93,5
88.6
80.1
81.6

91.0
80 .8
84.5
94.4
89.4
77.4
81 .2

86.7
71.5
83.4
81.8
86.1
90.9
91.5
86.6
86.1
88.2
83.8
80.4
83.690.6
88.4
72.8
78.8
82.6
82.5
88.3
85.5
82.3
75.9
71.4
81.9
81.3

84.4
72.3
83.4
82.6
86.0
91.2
92.5
84.6
86.1
88.2
83.4
80.3
84 . 2
90.3
87.9
70.9
78.9
83.6
83.1
88.4
85.2
82.5
74.6
72.1
82.3
81.2

82.5
74.7
82,6
83.7
86.8
91.7
92.0
85.1
86.5
88.2
82 .6
80 .6
85.4
90.6
86.9
71.2
79.4
84.2
86.0
87.5
83.0
80 .7
73.4
72.9
82.3
80.5

80.7
76.8
80.7
85.7
87.4
91.1
92.3
83.8
87.5
87.7
82.1
81.4

79.5
78.0
80.1
85.7
87.2
90 .8
91.8
83.3
87.5
88.5
81 .5
81 .6

79.5
79.7
80.2
83.9
88.3
92.7
92.1
83.0
87.3
88.2
81.7
79.4

77.9
81.5
80.7
83.1
88.6
92.3
91 .8
85.1
86.3
88.8
82.4
78.7

76.6
81 ,0
81 .3
83.9
89.3
90.1
91 .6
84.2
86 .4
88.7
81.7
80.0

75.7
81.8
80.9
84.8
88.8
90.1
91.3
85.0
86.2
88.4
79.3
80.1

73.7
82.3
81 .5
85.2
89.8
89.6
89.9
85.6
87 ,3
87.6
78.6
80.0

71.7
83.7
81.4
84.4
90.6
90.9
89.0
86.4
87.4
86.8
80 .1
81.4

90.8
88.0
70.5
80.1
84.6
86.3
87.5
79.6
80.7
72.1
73.8
82.4
80.1

91.3
87 . 8
71.5
80.4
84.9
86,5
87,6
77,6
81.8
71.6
74.0
82.5
80.2

92.0
87.3
71.5
80.4
84.8
87.2
87.1
76.3
83.4
71.0
75.8
82.9
79.7

91.9
86 .6
73.5
81 .0
84.2
87.1
86 .6
77.3
82.9
70.7
76 .8
82.9
79.8

91 ! 5
86 .7
74.8
81 .2
84.8
87,2
86 .1
78.5
81 .7
69,9
78.4
82,3
79.5

92,0
85.8
75.4
81,1
85.1
88.1
86.4
79.3
80,3
69.2
79.0
81.1
79.1

91 '.8
81.6
76.1
81 .7
85.2
88.6
86.2
81 .9
78.6
68.9
79.3
81 .1
79.4

90.8
77 ,1
76 .9
82.2
83.8
89.1
85.9
82.6
76 .6
68.4
79.6
81 .3
80.3

NOTE: These series contain revisions beginning with 1984.




1

{DECEMBER 1986)

101

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan.

Feb.

Apr.

Mar.

May

June

July

Sept.

Aug.

Nov.

Oct.

Dec,

IQ

II Q

(INDEX:

F E N S E A N D SPACE E Q U I P M E N T
1977-10 0 )

70.9
91.1
82.1
73.6
69.7
76.9
73.1
78.3
80.8
80.4
93.1
103.0
100.2
106.7
124.7
147 . 1

73.2
92.6
80.9
73.6
69.9
75.7
73.9
78.9
81.7
80 .4
93.8
103.0
98.5
109 .0
127 .0
148.1

75,4
93.2
79.7
72.9
69.9
76.2
76.0
79.1
79.7
80.4
94.7
102.9
97.9
110.3
128.9
147.8

75,9
94.0
79.4
72.8
69.9
75.3
76.1
79.5
81.6
80.9
96.5
101.9
97.7
112.1
130.6
148.6

77 .1
93.3
77.7
72.2
70.7
75.4
76.8
79.0
82.0
81.3
97,9
102.3
98.2
113.0
132.4
148.8

78,3
93.2
76.9
72.5
71.4
73.9

80.9
92.3
76.2
72.1
73.3
72.1

82.5
86.3
75.7
72.0
74.4
69.7

85.1
87.1
74.6
72.2
76.1
69.2

69.7
88.1
84.5
74.0
70.5
76.6

73.2
92.3
80,9
73.4
69.8
76.3

79.5
81.8
83.1
98.1
102 .7
98.8
113.2
134.1
149.3

81. 0
84.9
98.4
102.7
99.5
114.7
136.2
150.5

81.3
87 .0
99.4
102.3
100.6
115.7
138.6
150.7

144.3
123.5
108.3
106.1
102.2
99.2
98.3
100,2
101.6
100.9
102.6
115.3
116.1
131.6
141,6
155.0
167.1

144.1
120,8
109.6
105.3
101.4
100.1
98.7
100.2
102.1
101 .0
103.1
115.6
116.6
133.5
142 .7
154.9
168.3

142.0
118.7
107 .9
105.0
101.9
99.3
99.4
99.3
102.6
101.9
103.0
116.2
117.1
133.9
143.6
155.8
169.9

141,5
116.7
107 .1
104.0
102.1
100.4
97.7
99.1
102.6
102.
103.
114.
118.
134,
144.
156.
170.

139,5
115.8
107 ,1
102.7
100.5
101.3
97.8
100.2
102.3
102.5
105.0
115.6
120.5
134.2
145.0
159.2
173.3

138,7
114.6
106.0
103.2
100 .8
101.5
99.4
100.6
103.1
103.3
106.3
116.3
121.8
135.2
146.3
161.2
174.5

137.3
113.0
105.4
102.4
101.8
101.8
98.4
100.7
95.9
102.5
109.3
116.7
123.7
136.4
146.4
160.8
174.8

134.8
112.2
104.5
103.1
101.8
101.5
96.3
100.1
95.0
102.5
110.5
117,5
125.0
137.4
145,2
160.4
177.2

80.1
88.5
99.8
102.6
101,3
116.8
140.1
150.7
145.8
133.2
110.9
102.9
103.8
101.2
101.5
99.3
99.5
98.1
103.6
111.2
117.9
126.9
136.9
145.5
162.9
178.5

80.9
80.5
91.0
103.8
100.9
103.8
120.
144.
150.
145.
128.
109.
105.
103.
99.
99.0
100.5
99.0
98.1
104.0
113,1
117.2
127.4
139.1
150.2
164,5

557 . I N D E X OF

1 9 5 2 . ..
1 9 5 3 . ..
1954...
1955...
1956.. .
1957,. .
1958...
1959...
I960.. .
1961...
1962.. .
1963...
1964...
1965.. .

1966,
1967.
1968.
1969.

.,
..
..
..

1970.. .
1971.,,
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...

1976. .,
1977.. .
1978...
1979...
1980...

1981 , .,
1982...

1983. ..
1984...
1985...

69.2
86.3
85.3
74.1
71.4
76.4
70.0
78.2
80.5
80.9
89.5
104.5
101.6
102.4
119.3
142.5
150.1
146.0
131 .3
111 .8
104.1
103,1
99.6
100.9
99,9
98.8
98.4
103.9
112.1
117 .5
124.3
137.8
148.8
163.2

69,9
88.2
84.7
74,1
70,7
76.8
70,5
77.5
80.9
80.3
91.1
103.7
100.7
103.5
121.1
144.1
151.8
145.0
129.2
109.1
106 .0
103.6
99.7
98.3
100.5
99.5
95.4
104.5
113.6
116.9
128.5
139.2
150.6
164.2

70.1
89.8
83,6
73.7
69.3
76.7
71.9
77.8
81.3
80.2
92.3
103.1
100.4
105.4
122.2
145.6
148.9
145.5
126.3
108.2
105.9
102.7
99,4
97,9
101,2
98.8
100.4
103.6
113.6
117,1
129.5
140.4
151.1
166.0

IIIQ

IV Q

Annual

1

AVEILAGE F O R

PERIOD

78.8
80.7
80.4
93.9
103.0
98.9
108.7
126.9
147 .7
147.5
143.5
121.0
108.6
105.5
101.8
99.5
98.8
99,9
102.1
101.3
102.9
115.7
116.6
133.0
142.6
155.2
168.4

77 .1
93.5
78.0
72.5
70.7
74.9
76.7
79.3
81,8
81 .8
97.5
102 .3
98.2
112.8
132.4
148.9
148.9
139.9
115.7
106.7
103.3
101.1
101.1
98.3
100.0
102.7
102,6
105,0
115,4
120.3
134.6
145.4
158.8
172.9

82,8
88.6
75.5
72.1
74.6
70.3
77,6
79.5
80.8
86.8
99.2
102.5
100.5
115.7
138.3
150.6
145,8
135.1
112.0
104.3
103.1
101,6
101.6
98.0
100.1
96,3
102.9
110.3
117.4
125.2
136.9
145.7
161.4
176.8

75.7
90,6
79.8
73.1
71.4
74.6
74.9
78.9
81.1
82.4
95.4
102.9
99.6
110.3
129.6
147.8
148.1
141.0
119,4
107 .3
104.3
101.9
100.4
98.5
100.1
100.0
101.2
105.6
115,4
119,8
133.0
143.1
156.4
170.6

28.5
31.1
30.5
33.8
37.8
38,8
38.4
41.4
42.4
43.7
47 ,6
49,9
54.4
58.8
64.2
65.6
69.9
74.5
74.9
78.4
84.7
94.0
98.4
91.0
98.2
99.7
102,4
109.4
106.2
111.1
99.3
102.2
113.0
117.6

29.2
31.1
30.7
34.9
38.5
38.6
38.5
41.9
42.0
44.9
48.6
50,6
55.1
60.0
63.9
66.9
71.2
74.6
74.9
80.9
85.8
95.0
97.4
92,0
98.4
99.9
103.1
110.9
107.0
108.3
96.6
105.8
114.0
119.2

30.2
30.6
31.4
35.8
39.1
37.8
39,1
42.7
42.4
45.7
48.4
52.5
56.7
62.4
65.1
67.1
72.3
75.1
75.3
82.0
89.5
96.9
95.8
92.8
98.2
100.4
106,9
109.8
109.2
105.6
96.2
109.4
114.2
120.1

28.9
31.0
30.9
34.3
38,0
38.6
38.4
41.6
42.6
44.3
47 .7
50.4
55.0
59.8
64.3
66.2
70.2
74.6
75.3
79.5
85.6
94,7
97.7
91.9
97.6
100.0
103.3
109.8
108.1
108.6
98.9
104.1
112.7
118.2

40,5
28.8
78.4
49.0
51,6
35.6
62.8
49.0
43,8
69.3
56.9
47 .7
54.3
59.8
34.6
57.5
49,0
40.8
58.2
61.4
58.2
37.9
13.1
64.1
69.9
69,3
47.1
44.1
59.5
44.1
75,2
51.6
50.0
41.2

49.5
38.4
53.3
59.3
46.6
41.4
51,6
52.2
41.8
60.6
51.3
48.5
54.3
56,7
49.3
51.1
52.1
47.6
44.0
54.4
55.9
45.2
33.8
56.9
50.0
53.2
51.2
50.4
48.1
48.9
49.8
58.2
53.6
49.6

1986. ..
723.

27.7
30.7
30,8
32.4
36.3
38.6
37.5
39.8
43.6

27 .7
31.0
31.2
32.6
36.3
39.2
37.9
40.6
43.2

28.1
31.2
30.8
33.2
36.9
39.5
37,9
40.6

28.1
31 .2
30.6
33.2
37.8
38.8
38.3
41.5

28.7
31 .2
30.4
34.0
37.4
38.8
8.6
1.3

28.7
31.0
30.6
34.3
38.1
38.7
38.3
41.4

46.0
48.3
53.5
58.0
63.5
65.8
67.2
72.7
75.9
76.3
82.8
90.9
98,9
91.9
94.3
100.9
100.4
109.0
110.6
108.9
104.5
98.7
110.8
115.2

46,2
48.7
54,4
57.6
64.1
65.0
67.0
73.9
76.8
76.9
81 .7
93.4
99 .2
92.3
95,2
99.3
100.9
109,2
108.7
109.6
103.7
98.4
107 .8
115.5

46.9
49.3
53.9
58,8
64.1
64.9
67.7
75.3
75.7
77.2
82.7
94.5
99.6
91.0
96.5
99.7
100.6
108.8
110.5
109.7
102.4
100.0
110.3
116.8

47 .1
49.3
54.3
58.6
64.2
65.5
69.0
74.9
74.9
77.4
84,8
93.6
97.8
91.9
97.8
98.7
102.7
108.2
107.9

7.7
50.0
54.3
58.7
64.2
65.5
70.2
74.5
75.3
78.5
84.1
93.9
99,3
90.1
99.1
99.8
101.3
110 ,4
105.4
110 .8
99.7
101.3
113.3
117.6

48.0
50,3
54.7
59.1
64.3
65.7
70.6
74.2
74.4
79.2
85.1
94.5
98.1
91.1
97.8
100.7
103.2
109.5
105.4
111.2
98.5
104.6
113.8
118.8

1952...
1953...
1954...
1955.. .
1956.. .
1957., .
1958...

1959. ..
1 9 6 0 , ..
1961 . . .
1962...

1 9 6 3 . ..
1964...
1965...
1966., .

1 9 6 7 . ,.
1968...
1969,. .
1970.. .
1971.. .
1972...
1973.,.
1974...

1 9 7 5 . ..
1976...
1977.. .

1978, ..
1979...
1980.. .
1981...
1982.. .
1983.. .
1984...

1985, . .

CANADA — I N D E X O F I N D U S T R I A L
(1977-100)

in.2
99.7
100.7
111.8
116.4

PRODUCTION2

28.5
31,2
30.4
34.3
38.5
38,7
38.6
41.6

29.4
31.0
31 .0
35.1
38.3
38.9
38.5
41.6

29.6
31.2
30.7
35.2
38.6
38.1
38,3
42.5

30.0
30.8
31.1
35.5
38,9
37.7
38.5
43.3

30 ,2
30,3
31 .2
35.7
39.1
37 .8
39.3
42.3

30.4
30.8
31.9
36.2
39.2
37.9
39.5
42.6

44.8
48.8
50.0
54.4
60.2
64.1
66.3

44.5
48.0
50.0
54.8
59.2
63.1
67,4

45.3
48.9
51.8
56.1
60.6
64.5
67.0

45.5
48.5
51.9
55.9
61.6
65.3
66.4

45.7
48.4
52.5
56.8
62.2
64.9
67.4

45.9
48.4
53.1
57.4
63.
65.
67.

75,2
74.9
79.3
85.1
96.5
97.8
92.5
97.7
100.2
101.8
110.7
106,4
110.2
95.2
103.4
114.7
118.8

74.1
75.2
81.5
85,2
93.8
97.8
91.7
98,7
100.1
102.5
110.9
106.0
106.1
97.5
105.8
114.6
118,7

74.6
74.6
81.9
87.2
94.8
96.6
91 . 9
98,8
99.5
105.1
111.0
108.6
108.5
97.1
108.3
112 .7
120.0

74.1
74.7
82.2
88.7
96.1
96.8
90.9
96.8
100.3
105.4
110.7
109.1
107.7
95.6
107 .9
114.0
119.9

75.0
75.6
81.5
89.7
97 .4
95.3
93.0
98.9
100.4
106 .7
110.0
109,1
104.6
97 .0
108.9
114. 5
119.3

76.
75.
82.
90.
97.
95.
94.
99.0
100.5
108.7
108.8
109.5
104.5
96.1
111.3
114.1
121.2

27,8
31,0
30.9
32.7
36.5
39.
37.
40 .
43.
42.
46.
48,8
53.9
58.1
63.9
65.2
67.3
74.0
76.1
76.8
82.4
92.9
99.2
91.7
95.3
100.0
100.6
109.0
109.9
109.4
103.5
99.0
109.6
115.8

1986...
962.

1952...
1953...
1954..,
1955...
1956,, ,
1957.. .
1958.. .
1959...
1960...

1961. ..
1 9 6 2 . ..
1963.. .
1964..,
1965...

1 9 6 6 . ..
1967...
1968.. .
1969.. .
1970.. .

1971. . .
1972.. .

1 9 7 3 . ..
1974.. .
1975.. .
1976...

1977. ..
1978.. .
1979...

1980. ..
1981 .. .
1982.. .
1983.. .
1984...
1985...
1986.. .

D I F F U S I O N INDEX OF IN ITIAL CLAIMS FOR U N E M P L O Y M E N T I N S U R A N C E ,

£ TATE P R O G R A M S - - 5 1 AREAS 3

21.6
68,6
60.8
84.3
35.3
7.8

79.4
37,3
19.6
74.5
29,4
86.3

41,2
47,1
31.4
49.0
60.8

26.5
63,7
62.7
76.5
39.2

58.8
39,2
52.9
47.1
29.4

49,0
28.4
35.3
51.0
66.7

41.2
47.1
82.4
80.4
27.5

92.2
23.5
17.6
29.4
56.9

62.7
19.6
41.2
72.5
58.8

54.9
27.5
90.2
52.9
35.3

54.9
15.7
70.6
31.4
49.0

11,8
43.1
74.5
62.7
70.6

47.4
51.0
37.3
69.3
41 .8

44.8
43.8
50,3
58.2
45.1

65.4
30.1
47.1
60.8
47.7

88.2
61.8
76.5
23.5
11.8

63.7
21.6
9.8
84.3
90.2

62.7
9.8
70,6
39.2
72.5

57 ,8
86.3
77.5
47.1
17.6

85.3
27.5
29.4
25.5
51 .0

17.6
25.5
74.5
68.6
76.5

21.6
60,8
74.5
39.2
21 .6

52,9
3.9
35.3
41.2
74.5

39.2
29.4
72.5
70,6
76.5
23 .5

86.3
31.4
47.1
76.5
24.5
47 .1

82.4
37 .3
25.5
37.3
79.4
82.4

96.1
47 .1
47.1
18.6
54.9
17.6
84.3
78.4
37.3
3.9
51.0
94.1
39.2
33.3
11.8
23.5
86,3
96.1
68.6
36.3
11,8

19.6
45.1
22.5
78.4
49.0
48.0
29.4
19.6
78,4
74.5
35.3
41.2
25.5
47 ,1
72.5
60.8
39.2
24.5
57. 8
72.5
72,5

39.2
86.3
40 .2
76.5
76.5
25.5
11.8
68.6
31.4
80.4
72,5
10.8
49.0
54.9
68.6
46,1
31.4
5.9
35.3
70.6
84.3

64.7
74.5
39.2
33.3
33.3
19.6
98.0
82.4
35.3
23.5
30.4
52.9
68,6
82.4
7.8
3,9
64.7
62.7
80.4
41.2
19.6

78.4
27 .5
41.2
58.8
82.4
72.5
76.5
5.9
28.4
33.3
68.6
56.9
23.5
11.8
66 ,7
33.3
78.4
68.6
48.0
31.4
45.1

11.8
58.8
78.4
80.4
25.5
27 .5
5.9
54.9
72.5
80.4
73.5
0.0
37.3
58.8

81.4
38.2
33.3
17.6
35.3
66.7
68.6
59.8
19,6
11.8
62.7
66.7
80.4
49.0

45.1
29.4
66.7
57.8
63.7
62.7
31.4
52.0
33.3
43.1
82,4
29.4
24.5
42.2

64.7
60 .4
71.6
56.9
27 .5
13 .7
62.7
74.5
92.2
15.7
13.7
38.2
82.4
94.1

70.6
17.6
19.6
78.4
92,2
88,2

62.7
68.6
67 ,6
70.6
19.6
7.8

84.3
58,8
9.8
7.8
52.9
82.4

13.7
9.8
17 .6
96 .1
76.5
59.8

80.4
35.3
45.1
49.0
48.0
58.8
88.2
43.1
15.7
3.9
76.5
90.2
76.5
25.5
9.8
76.5
60.8
88.2
58.8
5.9
23.5

34.3
29.4
62.7
58.8
56 .9
58.8
19.6
49.0
51.0
29.4
94.1
29.4
41.2
29.4
53.9
96.1
49.0
60 .8
35.3
72.5
72.5

19.6
78.4
58.8
94.1
66.7
13.7
51.0
64.7
39.2
64.7
39.2
17.6
56.9
76 .5
82.4
47 , 1
5.9
21.6
90.2
90,2
86.3
68.6
5.9
22 .5
76.5
60.8
71.6
27 . 5

28.8
71.5
31.1
52.3
49.0
58.2
56.9
51.6
59.5
36,6
57.8
60.1
30.4
41.8
55.5
49.0
52.9
52.9
48.7
37.9
45.1
51,0
43.5
52.3
42.2
53.9
59.8
56.2

50.7
53.6
46.4
60.5
47 .1
48.4
49.0
51.6
53.6
52.9
57.5
47.1
39.
60.
47.
45.
45.
57.
36,
43.
51.
47.
35.
53,
50.3
68.9
54.9
51.0

64.1
34,6
45.7
60.1
52.3
39.9
56.9
63.7
49.3
57.2
44.1
42.2
47.7
54.2
62.1
48.4
23.5
52.9
44.8
62.4
61.8
59.5
53.6
45,7
31.7
58.2
49.7
50 .0

T h i s series contains r e v i s i o n s b e g i n n i n g w i t h 1984. 2 Thi s series contains r e v i s i o n s b e g i n n i n g w i t h 1981.
c o n t a i n s no r e v i s i o n s but is reprinted for the convenience of the u s e r .

102



3

This ser es

( D E C E M B E R 1986)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

Jan. ( Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

9 6 2 . D I F F U S I O N INDEX OF I N I T I A L CLAIMS FOR U N E M P L O Y M E N T I N S U t A N C E ,
iNS)
'
1952.. .
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1 96 2 ...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967. ..
1 96 8 ...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1 9 7 7 . .,
1978. ..
1 9 7 9 . ..
1980. ..
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985.. .
1986.. .

60.8
37.3
3.9
98.0
41.2
23.5
3.9
96.1
19.6
47.1
80.4
54.9
76.5
78.4
88.2
11.8
76.5
64.7
2.0
52.9
78.4
66.7
10.8
2.0
76.5
74.5
76.5
46.1
2.0
76.5
11.8
98.0
76.5
33.3

31.4
24.5
23.5
94.1
25.5
31.4
16.7
76.5
31.4
70,6
54.9
72.5
88.2
88.2
72.5
25.5
74.5
31.4
0,0
70.6
62.7
51.0
9.8
21.6
70.6
68.6
47 .1
25.5
9.8
70,6
43.1
100.0
56.9
64.7

43.1
20.6
9.8
96.1
31.4
31.4
7.8
94.1
15.7
52.9
82.4
64.7
74.5
78.4
90.2
15.7
86.3
43.1
2.0
60.8
72.5
60.8
21.6
2.0
69.6
70.6
56.9
27.5
2.0
81.4
31.4
96.1
90.2
41.2

966 .

1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957 ...
1958...
1959...
1960. ..
1961. ..
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966.. .
1967.. .
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975.. .
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985.,.
1986...

72.9
52.1
35.4
89.6
58.3
45.8
18.8
83.3
66.7
70.8
16.7
58.3
85.4
77.1
72.9
66.7
54.2
66.7
33.3
62.5
87,5
50.0
25.0
18.8
68.8
62.5
45.8
31.2
54.2
66.7
25.0
83.3
91.7
39.6

77.1
58.3
68.8
81.2
43.8
79.2
8.3
85.4
7.9
4.2
7.1
1.2
2.9
0.8
60.4
8.3
77.1
56.2
52.1
39.6
66.7
79.2
54.2
29.2
85.4
81.2
54.2
64.6
50.0
54.2
68.8
62.5
75.0
56.2

,

66.7
77.1
25.0
95.8
79.2
58.3
8.3
100.0
79.2
47.9
79.2
91.7
95.8
83.3
91.7
50.0
87.5
79.2
27.1
62.5
100.0
79.2
25.0
8.3
87.5
91.7
87.5
54.2
41.7
87.5
12.5
83.3
95.8
54.2

62.5
66.7
45.8
100.0
62.5
56.2
16.7
95.8
87.5
77.1
75.0
95.8
100.0
89.6
95.8
41.
79.
79.
29.
75.
91.
70.
29.
16.
79.
91.
91.
54.
20.
66,
16.
91.
95.8
62.5

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

II Q

76.5

47.1

82.4

60.8

58.8

70.6

45.1

76 .5

33,3
86.3
31.4
9.8
74.5
37.3
3.9
78.4
35.3
82,4
86.3
82.4
70.6
43.1
94.1
37.3
2.0
52.9
58.8

76.5
60.8
41.2
0.0
96.1
15.7
5.9
86.3
25.5
80.4
61.8
90.2
62.7
82.4
79.4
35.3
5.9
41.2
78.4

88.2
70.6
43.1
3.9
90.2
27.5
23,5
94.1
45.1
17.6
64.7
90.2
29.4
80.4
53.9
12 .7
13.7
84.3
76.5

92.2
37.3
41,2
0.0
98.0
35.3

12.4
96.1
32,7
28,8
9.5
88.9

24.2
86.9
37.9
22,2
49.0
57.5

7.8
58.8
29.4
53.9
60.8
49.0
3,9
19.6
23.5
90.2
72.5
58.8

13.7
75.5
17.6
74.5
60.8
31 .4
7.8
5.9
9.8
92.2
36.3
68.6

9.8
92.2
17.6
65.7
51.0
21.6
58.8
17.6
17.6
88.2
27.5
64.7

2.0
82.4
62.7
82.4
76.5
25.5
23.5
9.8
72.5

98.0
39.2
47.1
3.9
98.0
3.9
3.9
96.1
60.8
88.2
64.7
62.7
12.7
86.3
54.9
2.0
51.0
41.2
96.1
15.7
3.9
92.2
37.3
70.6
51.0
35.3
96.1
11.8
71.6

94.1
60.8
56.9
0.0
100 .0
7.8

21.6
51.0
22.5
57.8
52.9
56.9
19.6
19.6
15.7
84.3
66.7
64.7

94.1
56.9
9.8
5.9
98,0
31.4
9.8
88.2
17.6
72.5
100.0
88.2
5.9
62.7
60.8
3.9
70.6
70.6
45.1
2.0
0.0
98.0
56.9
68.6
15.7
47.1
96.1
27.5
82.4

90.2
70.6
54.9
72.5
96.1
5.9
88.2
41 .2
2.0
25.5
84.3
88.2
15.7
0.0
88.2
88.2
78.4
66.7
33.3
88.2
5.9
66.7

82.4
46.1
74.5
66.7
92.2
7.8
74.5
62.7
2.0
49.0
90.2
78.4
23.5
0.0
88.2
88.2
86.3
29.4
5.9
88.2
7.8
84.3

35.3
13.7

13.7
60.8

33.3
64.7

17.6
33.3

29.4
64.7

56.9
72.6
64.0
79,7
81.7
83.6
17.7
79.1
46.4
1.3
61.4
71.2
59.5
14.1
8.5
72.2
71,2
60.2
33.0
4.6
76.2
28.8
98.0
74.5
46.4

77.1
47 .7
67.0
83.7
84.3
73.9
1 .2
7.1
9.2
2 .0
8.4
5,2
5.3
4.4
61.8
23.2
62.1
58.2
45.8
10.4
15.0
16.3
88.9
58.5
64.0

67.4
63.9
52,8
88.2
50.0
58.3
19.4
81.9
53.5
63.9
55.6
70.1
67 .4
72.9
70.8
39.6
62.5
68.7
41.7
52.8
77.1
65.3
42.4
21.6
63.9
70.1
61.1
54.9
53.5
55.6
36.8
70.8
75.7
55.5

57.0
52 . 1
61.8
83.3
43.1
40.3
63.9
73.6
34.0
78.5
53.5
67.4
75.7
69.4
65.3
50.7
63 .2
56.3
41.7
73.6
62.5
66.7
54.8
57 .6
63,2
75.0
76.4
50.0
19.4
63.2
38.9
75.7
61.1
54.8

39.6
66.7
41.7
83.3
85.4
22.9
27.1
91.7
41.7
77 .1
64.6
77.1
89.6
58.3
62.5
60.4
52.1
37.5
41.7
91.7
79.2
56.2
45.8
52.1
58.3
89.6
87.5
37.5
8.3
58.3
25.0
79.2
66.7
56.2

62.5
58.3
79.2
83.3
18.8
35.4
68.8
75.0
37.5
66.7
54.2
66.7
85.4
72.9
75.0
37.5
83.3
62.5
41.7
58.3
50.0
64.6
70.8
50.0
89.6
62.5
62.5
64.6
20.8
70.8
41.7
77,1
45.8
58.3

68.8
31.2
64.6
83.3
25.0
62.5
95.8
54.2
22.9
91.7
41.7
58.3
52.1
77.1
58.3
54.2
54.2
68.8
41.7
70.8
58.3
79.2
47,9
70.8
41.7
72.9
79.2
47.9
29.2
60.4
50.0
70.8
70.8
50.0

66.8
62.5
58.3
100.0
45.8
54.2
33.3
91.7
50.0
91.7
58.3
100.0
100.0
79.2
81.2
35.4
70.8
83.3
20.8
75.0
91.7
70.8
45.8
33.3
87.5
95.8
87.5
54.2
16.7
58.3
35.4
95.8
87.5
66.7

50.0
75.0
64.6
93.8
39.6
54.2
50.0
83.3
25.0
91.7
81.2
87.5
95.8
87.5
75.0
29.2
83.3
72.9
22.9
60.4
79.2
87.5
50.0
41.7
79.2
87.5
95.8
56.2
20.8
75.0
41 .7
83.3
70.8
66.7

79.2
58.3
70.8
95.8
50.0
39.6
83.3
79.2
35.4
100 .0
68.8
95.8
91.7
87.5
75.0
70.8
75.0
75.0
29.2
62.5
87.5
72.9
50.0
62.5
70 .8
91.7
100 .0
66.7
25.0
75.0
20.8
95.8
70.8
72.9

93.8
45.8
62.5
87.5
60.4
31.2
91.7
60.4
20.8
91.7
75.0
89.6
95.8
79.2
66.7
83.3
70.8
54.2
41.7
75.0
87.5
81.2
50.0
75.0
77.1
83.3
87.5
43.8
20.8
47.9
16.7
100.0
64.6
58.3

Annual

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

84.3

DIFFUSION INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIOH--24 INDUSTRIES
( P E R C E N T R I S I N G O V E R 1-MONTH SPANS)

52.1
81 .2
54.2
93.8
47.9
50.0
31.2
77.1
45.8
66.7
72.9
70.8
43.8
70,8
79.2
43.8
56.2
83.3
39.6
56.2
77.1
66.7
47.9
16.7
37.5
66.7
83.3
68.8
56.2
45.8
16.7
66.7
60.4
70.8

IV Q

III Q

AREAS'

70.6
11 ,8
21.6
94.1
43.1
13.7
39.2
76.5
5.9
84.3
47.1
51.0
84.3
84.3
80.4
45.1
68.6
37.3
0.0
47.1
82.4

68.7
2.6
86.3
62.8
31,4
3.3
94.8
24.9
13.1
89.5
29.4
56.8
75.5
89.5
32.7
75.2
64.7
17.3
30.1
65.4
66.7
10.5
3.9
90.9
45.7
72.2
47 .7
31.4
59.5
18.3
57.5
87.6
25.5
46.4

1

63.4
11.1
54.4
72.9
37 .6
13.9
63.0
46.7
13 .2
78.3
52.2
65.1
76.7
84,8
49.7
54.2
68.5
26.2
18.8
61.8
75.2
30.9
8.4
62,7
53.1
71,0
53.8
33.8
41,3
29.5
44.2
88.4
46.3
52.8

63,
6.
94.
45.
48.
1.3
98.7
15.7
8.5
89.6
59.2
72.5
68,0
83.7
8.8
83.0
52.9
2.0
41.8
71.9
87.6
18.3
1.3
89.5
71.2
78.4
49.0
24.8
90.8
8.5
74.2
79.1
26.8
54.2

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

45.8
83.3
56.2
45.8
58.3
50.0

91,7
41.7
47 .9
50.0
68.8
58,3

81.2
12.5
62.5
68.8
54.2
25.0

75.0
25.0
81.2
91 .7
64.6
10.4

93.8
22 .9
95.8
68.8
45.8
2.1

56.2
18.8
83.3
66.7
68.8
20,8
58.3

35.4
70.8
56.2
60.4
77.1
70.8
68.8
45.8
41.7
58.3
58.3
58.3
68.8
68.8
39.6
58.3
68.8
56.2
54.2
45,8
50.0
79.2
52.1
95.8
66.7
54.2

35.4
81.2
58.3
70.8
66.7
66.7
56.2
87.5
70,8
58.3
35.4
54.2
83.3
77.1
50 .0
75.0
64.6
66 .7
66.7
43.8
79.2
33.3
56.2
75.0
43.8
68.8

25.0
56.2
77.1
66.7
62.5
58.3
70.8
52.1
52.1
52.1
43,8
83.3
79.2
45.8
41.7
62.5
66.7
54.2
70.8
45.8
75.0
1,4.6
37.5
91.7
43.8
50.0

45.8
95,8
25.0
60.4
60.4
79.2
64.6
75.0
68.8
58.3
43,8
79.2
81.2
66.7
33.3
79.2
72.9
75.0
68.8
56.2
54.2
16.7
31.2
60.4
52.1
41.7

29.2
75.0
79.2
66.7
77.1
79.2
47.9
66.7
72.9
47.9
18.8
72.9
77.1
60.4
4.2
72.9
54.2
66.7
66.7
33.3
81 .2
29.2
54.2
58.3
50.0
70.8

18.8
56.2
66.7
31.2
79.2
83.3
50.0
56.2
58.3
52.1
68.8
83.3
70.8
22.9
8.3
75.0
75.0
68.8
66.7
45.8
62.5
20.8
41.7
58.3
41 .7
58.3

72.9
45.8
55.5
54.9
60.4
44.4
83.3
47 .2
31.9
69.4
63.9
66.0
68.8
65.3
65.3
61 .8
54.9
56.2
45.8
65.3
77.1
63.9
43.8
65.3
66.7
59.0
63.9
45.1
68,1
42.4
48.6
87.5
51.4
57.7

68.1
46 .0
64.2
75.5
53.3
38.5
59.9
66,7
37 .7
71.9
57,5
64.0
71.0
72.0
63.9
54,5
61.8
58.5
43.2
67.5
73.3
61.5
39.1
55.0
65,3
68,6
67.2
48.8
51.7
45.8
41 .7
73.3
59.0
56.2

75.0
22.2
86.8
75.7
59.7
11.1
72.9
63.9
31.3
75.7
57 .0
52.8
72.2
80.6
54.2
66.0
66.7
52.8
43.8
78.5
76.4
50.0
15.3
75.7
67.4
70.2
67.4
45.1
66.0
22 .2
42 .4
59,0
47.9
56.9

INDUSTRIES
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

91.7
20.8
83.3
100 .0
50 .0

18.8
79.2
87.5
58.3

16.7
87.5
87.5
79.2

8.3
91.7
91.7
70.8

20.8
97.9
79.2
83.3

25.0
100.0
75.0
79.2

68.8
43.6
98.6
62.5

59.7
66.0
92.4
50.0

95.8
45.8
20.8
100.0
54.2
87.5
83.3
91.7
70.8

100.0
39.6
12.5
100.0
68.8
79.2
79.2
95.8
66.7

100.0
62.5

95.8
70.8

100 .0
83 .3

91 .7
77,1

19.4
95.8

75,0
74.3

97.2
18.8
83.3
91.7
62.5
13.9
98.6
49.3

95.8
75.0
68.8
95.8
87.5
62.5

87.5
75.0
83.3
85.4
91.7
58.3

95.8
77 . 1
85.4
87.5
91.7
35.4

79.2
75.0
35.4

75.0
52.1
43.8

79.2
41.7
50.0

70.8
29.2
47.9

79.2
29.2
52.1

75.0
79.2
50.0
75.0
85.4
91.7
75.0
62.5
45.8
41.7
29.2
95.8
54.2
60.4

87.5
77.1
8.3
95.8
77.1
83.3
85.4
47.9
75.0
27.1
37.5
95.8
54.2
66 .7

85.4
54.2
0.0
91.7
75.0
79.2
70.8
45.8
87.5
16.7
27.1
89.6
45.8
68.8

79.2
39.6
4.2
87.5
75.0
75.0
70.8
62.5
95.8
12.5
56 .2
95.8
22.9
75.0

79.2
31.2
8.3
91.7
83.3
58.3
66 .7
58.3
87.5
8.3
66.7
91.7
43.8
70.8

91 .7
75.0
75.0
91 .7
95.8
37.5
87.5
83.3
25.0
41.7
91.7
87.5
29.2
0.0
83.3
87.5
75.0
75.0
50.0
83.3
16.7
66.7
91.7
54.2
60 .4

72.2
70.8
95.8
98.6
84.0
89.6
42 .4
79.2
80.6
25.7
70.8
94.5
73.6
33.3
19.4
84.7
93.1
88.9
54.2
26.4
70.8
21,5
90 .3
93,0
61.1

94.5
75.0
91.0
94.4
84.7
72.2
61 .1
76.4
67.4
31.3
66.0
84.7
80 .
50 .
59 .
75.
87 .
94.
55.
22.
66.
26.
93.
68.
66 .0

98.6
66.0
78.5
86.1
91.7
66.7
79.9
77.8
56.3
43.1
75.0
82.6
70.2
19,4
87.5
79.2
84.7
77.
52.
69.
28.
31 .
93.
51.
65.

NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain revisions beginning with 1984.
'This series contains no revisions but is reprinted for the convenience of the user.




Oct.

PROGRAMS--51

74.5
5.9
17.6
80,4
39.2
43.1
33.3
58.8
17.6
68.6
60.8
67.6
80.4
86.3
70.6
35.3
68.6
43.1
3.9
45.1
84.3

966 . D I F F U S I O N I N D E X O F I N D U S T R I A L P R O D U C T I O N - - 2 4
( P E R C E N T R I S I N G OVER 6-MONTH SPANS)

1952.. .
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956. ..
1957...
1958. ..
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964,..
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1 9 6 9 . ..
1970...
1971.. .
1972...
1973...
1974,..
1975...
1976...
1977,..
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983..,
1984,..
1985...
1986...

Sept.
STATE

89.6
8.0
6.5
2,0
7.8
3.5
5.8
7,1
9,9
91.7
75.7
81 .2
88.2
93.1
43.7
86 . 1
77.8
27.8
47 .2
94.4
82.0
33,3
4,2
87,5
81,9
69.4
70.8
56.9
88.9
12,5
63.2
93.1
40 .3
68.7

81.8
41 .3
72.2
91.2
63.2
28.8
72.2
74.1
35.8
89.2
71,9
86 .6
91.8
88.4
68.0
67.4
77.8
58.0
36.8
76.6
86.0
64.4
26.7
63.5
80.4
83.7
82.8
54,7
51.7
44.4
35.6
92,5
63 .4
65.3

(DECEMBER 1986)

103

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

IQ

II Q

11. NE
MAHUFACT U R I N G CORPORATIONS

1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1 957
1958 . . . .
1 959
1 960
1961
1 95 2
1963
1 964
1965
1966
1967
1 96 g
1969
1970
1971
1972
1 973
1 97 4
1975
1 976
1 977 . . .
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1 98 4.....
1 9fl5

1.77
1,86
2.69
4.04
3.61
1.95
2.69
2,87
2.39
2.99
2.76
4. 12
5.08
6.54
6.03
5.95
6.80
6.68
5.70
6.57
9.72
12.86
11.39
11.38
14.58
17.06
21 ,45
27.50
27.70

25.18
20.07
26,92
29,94

2 .06
1.84
3.26
3.71
3.20
1.94
2.94
2.52
2.46
2.52
3.27
4.66
5.54
6.77
5.98
5.72
7.75
6.48
5.52
7.09
10 .92
14.98
10.98
12.22
15.00
15.06
21 . 0 3
25.81
28.06
20,02

2 0 , 87
34.12
27,56

III

Q

IV Q

Annual

( B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS)

8.17
7 .85
13.86
14.56
11.57
8.32
11 .89
10.37
10.27
11 .48
3.63
8.03
2.35
5.29
3.85
4.66
9.59
5.34
3.08
9.30
4.51

2.29
1.87
3,90
3,38
2,43
2.20
3.13
2.27
2.72
2.82
3.66
4.91
5.58
5.96
5.89
6.35
7.60
6.32
5.92
7.21
11.67
16.38
10.18
11.83
17.44
16.09

2.05
2.28
4.01
3.43
2.33
2.23
3.13
2.71
2.70
3.15
3.94
4.34
6,15
6.02
5.95
6.64
7 .44
5.86
5.94
8.43
12.20
12,68
12,87
14.36
16.89
18.67

22.47

23.08

24.12
26.71
18.44

26.15
21.49

85.13

22.78

24.26

27 ,31
24.17

29.10
27 .19

87.98
117.45
108.86

23.04

56.90
45.42
49.79

63.91
66 .88
88.03
103.58
105.51

1970
1971
1972
1 973
1974
1975
1 976 . . ,
197? . . . . .
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986

5.81
5.25
5.46
11.15
11.95
7.94
7.52
9.50
8.13
8.31
8.56
11.33
14.83
19.00
19.98
20.03

5^6
4.88
6 ,62
11.82
11,48
7 .24
8.13
9.09
7.96
8.19
9.05
12 ,41
15.91
20.21
19.83
19.93

23.13

22.50

20.20

19.48

19.42

20.40
29.62
44.80
47.59
46.39
50.68
59.95
69.80
86.38

26.03
39,84

49.10
46.07
49.28

59.71
67,52
82.36
93.44
90.20
69,60
78.46
99.35

sie'i

19.89

4.82
9.85
11 .92
9.13
7.07
9.41
8.41
8.07
8.54
10.48
13.96
17.92
20.21
19.86

20.28

20.85

21.71
19.29
21,40

20.86

20.28

1 956
1957
1958
19S9
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1 96 5
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1 97 5 .
1 976
1 977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986

13.4
13.2
11.2
14.0
13,3
12.
12!
12.
10.
12 .
12.
13.4
13,8
14.1
12.6
12,3
11.9
9.0
9,6
10.1
10.6
9.0
7.9
10.6
10.0
10.1
10.3
8.9
8.2
6.0
6.6
8.9
8.4

5 '.61
4.82
9.85
11.92
9.13
7 ,07
9.41
8.41
8.07
8.54
10.48
13.96
17 .92
20.21
19.86
20.85
23.44
20.86

18.89

18.89
23.28

33,36

37.11

37.11

50.01

49.79
46.45

49.79
46.45

47 .53

47 .53

56.49
63.37
76.47
90.73
92.46
70.76
73,50
94.37
94.58

56.49
63.37
76.47
90.73
92,46
70.76
73,50
94.37
94.58

45.34
45.89
53,94
60.78
73.25

88.12

96.18

97,07

82.88
70.58

74.15

89.18

72.57
92.06

99.88

97.18

12.6
12.9
11.6
14,0
13.0
12.4
10.1
13.4
11,6
11.4
12 , 1
12.8
13.2
13.9
13.6
12.3
12.5
11.3
9.3
9.6
9.9
10,1
8.8
8,6
10.1
11 .0
10.9
10 , 1
7,9
7.6
6,0
7.7
9.0
8.6

I960

1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1 966
1967
1968
1969
1970
197 1
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1 980
1981
1982
1 983
1984
1 985
1 986

....

....

....
....
. ..

12.2
12.5
12.1
14,0
12.6
12.2
10.9
12 .2
11.4
11.7
12.2
12.8
13.2
13.8
13.1
12.3
12.2
10.7
9.1
9.7
10.1
9.9
8.3
9.9
10.0
11.5
10.9
9.7
7 .7
7 .7
6.1
8.3
8.5
9.1

3.45
3.54
3.72
3.54
3.93
4.38
4.49
4.51
5.34
4.97
4.98
5.00
4.99
4.97
5.55
6.13
6.36
7.32
8,86
6.59
5.52
6,52
9.91
9.94
7.54
7.50
8.90
12.27
15.67
19.91
17.13
10.20
11.06
10.10

( A N N U A L R A T c, ,

23.28

ITH IVA AND GCADJ AS A
287. CORPORATE PROFITS
P E R C E N T OF N A T K) N A L I N C O M E 1 ( P E R C E N T )

1952
1953
1954
1 955

1952
1 953
1954
1955 ....
1 956
1957
1958
1959

(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

5.76
4.65
8.26
11.97
10.30
7.09
8.81
8.50
8.07
8.16
9.66
13.69
16.78

13.1
10.5
12.8
14.0
12.5
11,3
12.0
12.1
10.9
12.2
12.5
12.9
12.9
14.1
13.1
12.5
12.2
10.0
8.5
9.8
10.3
9.8
7,8
10.0
9.7
10,7
11.0
9.0
7.7
7.3
5.7
8.7
8.5
8.7

1 952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1 957
1958
1 959
1 960
1961
1962
1963
1 964
1965
1966
1967
1968

104



|

III Q

3.51
3.73
3.60
3.56
4.14
4.40
4.17
4.87
5.35
4.97
5.01
5.01
4.99
4.99
5.82
5.95
6.84
7 .86
8.49
6.01
5.59
7 .35
11.15
8.16
7 .44
7.40
8.96
12,34
17.75
19.99
17.11
10.31
12,45
9,90

3.49
3,74
3.56
3,77
4.35
4.83
4.21
5.27
4.97
4.99
4.99
5.01
4.98
5.00
6.30
5.95
6.89
8.82
8.50
6.51
5.84
9.24
12.40
8.22
7.80
7.80
9.92
12.31
11.56
21.11
13.27
11.09
13,29
9.27

IV Q

Annual

®
AVERAGE

3.51
3.76
3.55
3.93
4.38
4.85
4.50
5.36
4,99
4.96
5.02
5.00
5.00
5.27
6.31
5.96
6.61
8.83
8.07
6.18
6.33
10 .08
11 .64
8.29
7.28
8.64
11,44
15.81
15.71
17.23
11.26
10.95
11.29
9.68

1 970
1971
1972
1973
1 97 4
197 5
1 97 6
1 977
1978
1979
1 980
1981
1 982
1983
1 984
1985
1 986

wr

3.49
3.69
3.61
3.70
4.20
4.62'
4.34
5.00
5.16
4.97
5.00
5.00
4.99
5.06
6.00
6.00
6.68
8.21
8.48
6.32
5.82
8.30
11.28
8.65
7.52
7.84
9.80
13.18
15.17
19,56
14.69
10.64
12.02
9.74

AVERAGE

wuii.ujin.jy

....
....
,. .

....

. .,,

....
....

....

36.0
39.8
35.2
46.8
46.1
46 , 2
37.1
55.4
49.5
49.4
57.0
63.5
70.3
80.4
86.8
82.4
91.3
89.4
76.9
85.8
96,8
111 .5
104.2
108.2
144,3
175.0
199.1

203.5

212.2

204.8

....

204,1
169.2
184.3
149.6

201.9
169.8
192.1
154.3

189.5
176.6
180.7
146 .1

207 .0
271.7
274.3

228.9
259.8
296 .3

248.5
265.0
2 8 5 .6

193.1
194.7
149.9
170.6
262,5
266.4

35,7
38.6
36,9
47.5
44.9
45.8
41.1
49.8
48.6
51.6
58.1
64.7
71.5
81.4
85.0
83.7
91,5
86 ,7
76.6
87.8
101.4
112.4
100.7
129.7
145,0
189.7

39,6
31,8
40 .3
48.5
45.6
42.1
46.7
50.0
46 .0
55.4
60.3
66.0
70.6
85.3
86.2
86.7
92.8
81 , 2
71.8
90.6
108.0
114,7
95.5
136.1
143,2
181.1

288. N E T I N T E R E S T 1
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1 96 5
1966
1 967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1 976
1 977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986

37.5
37.7
36.6
47 ,1
45.7
45.3
40.3
51.4
49.5
50.3
58.3
63.6
70.7
81 ,3
86.6
84.1
90.7
87.4
74.7
87.1
100.
113.
101.
117.
145.
174.
197.
200.
177.
188.0
150,0
213.7
264.7
280.7

....

AVERAGE

12.8
12.3
11.9
14.0
12.
12 .
10.
12 .
11 .
11 .
12.3
12.7
13.2
13.9
13.5
12,4
12.3
11.0
9.0
9.7
10.1
10.1
8.5
9.1
10 .1
10 .8
10.7
9.8
8.0
7.7
6.0
7,8
8.7
8.7

D j,i. ij i u i i i j

38.5
40.6
34.0
45.6
46.4
47.0
36.4
50.5
53.8
45.0
57,7
60.3
70,3
78.2
88.4
83.5
87.5
92.3
73.5
84.1
96,5
114.7
106.3
96.6
148.3
153.5
174.0

...

...

AVERAGE

3.7
4.2
4.9
5.7
6 .2
7.3
8.9
10.1
11.0
12.1
13.8
15.7
17.4
20.1
22.8
26 .2
29.1
32.5
38.0
45,1
47.9
56.7
69.4
82.3
85.2
98.5
117.3
144.2
191.1

.8
.3
.1
.8
.5
.7
.3
1,1
10.9
12.6
14.4
16.0
17.9
20.7
23.8
27 .0
29.7
34.0
40 .4
46.0
49.5
57 .1
74.2
83 .0
88.0
102.3
123.7
150.8
197.8

4.0
4.3
5,3
6.0
6.7
8.2
9.7
10.1
11.5
13.1
14.8
16.5
18.6
21.4
24.7
27 .8
29.9
35.5
42.5
46.8
52,0
60.3
77.5
84.9
89.7
108.1
128.2
164,1
199.5

4.1
4.8
5.5
5.9
6.7
8.2
10.0
10 ,5
11.9
13.8
15.3
17.0
18.8
21.5
25.8
28.6
30 .5
36.4
44.0
47.3
54.6
64,1
81 ,0
85.2
92,3
112.1
136.1
174.0
215.0

228.8
273.0

240.1
260.2
275.8
305.2
311.4

260,3
269.1
285.9
316.1
309.7

263.2
266.9
290.2
315.7
307.6

272.1
292.5

316.8

NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.
This series contains revisions beginning with 1983.

1

II Q

286. CC R P O R A T E P R O F I T S B E F O R E T A X W I T H I V A A N D C C A D j '

1,000

1952
1953
1 954
1955
1 956
1 957
1958,
1 959
1960
1 §61
1 962
1 963
1964
1 965
1966
1 96?
1968

IQ

6 7 , BANK R A T E S O N S H O R T - T E R M B U S I N E S S L O A N S
(PERCENT)

TOTAL

1986
MANUFACTURING CORPORATIONS

Year

1,000

3.9
4.4
5.2
5.8
6.5
7.8
9.5
10 .2
11,3
12.9
14.6
16.3
18.2
20.9
24.3
27.4
29.8
34.6
41.2
46.3
51.0
59.6
75.5
83.8
88.8
105.3
126.3
US. 3
200.9

248.1
272.3

281.0
307.4

311,4

(DECEMBER 1986)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year

1Q

|

II Q

III

Q

IV Q

1.3
1.4
1.6
1.8
1.8
2.0
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.3
3.5
3.6
4.0
4.1
4.2
4.6
5.2
5.0
5.2
5.9
6.7
6.1
6.4
6.8
7.3
8.8
9.6
11.0
10.5
9.9
10.0

1.3
1.4
1.7
1.7
1.8
2.1
2.5
2.4
2.6
2.9
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.7
4.0
4.1
4.3
4.9
5.2
5,1
5.2
6.2
6.6
6.2
6.4
6.8
7.5
9.2
9.9
11.1
10.3
10.1
9.7

Year

1.4
1 .4
1 .7
1.8
1 .9
2 .2
2.6
2.5
2.7
3.0
3. 1
3 .3
3.4
3.6
3,8
4.1
4.0
4.4
5.1
5.2
5 .2
5.3
6 .4
6.5
6.2
6.5
6 .9
7.9
9.1
10.5
10 .6
10.4
10.4
9.5

1 .4
1 .6
1 .7
1.7
1.8
2.2
2,6
2 .5
2.8
3.0
3.2
3 .3
3.4
3.5
3.9
4.1
4.0
4.5
5.2
5.1
5.2
5.5
6.6
6.3
6.2
6.6
7 .0
8.3
9.3
10.6
10.5
10.2
10.2
9.4

1.4
1.4
1.7
1.8
1.8
2.1
2.5
2.5
2.7
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.0
4.4
5.0
5.2
5.1
5.3
6.3
6,5
6.2
6.5
6.9
7.8
9.1
10.2
10.8
10.4
10.2
9.6

56.6
52.3
47.7
61.9
75.0
78.9
63.3
77.4
91.6
76,4
90.4
93.7
104.3
123.0
128.8
127 .4
134.8
152.8
154.1
165.3
186.2
235.2
254.9
221.3
277.5
299.1
368.2
462.6
447.2
516.6
471.6
424.2
580.7
573,2

1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1 968
1969
1970.....
1971
1972
1973
1 974
1 97 5
1976
1 977
1978
1 97 9
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986

1 961
1962
1963 .
1 964
1 96 5
1966
1 967
1 96 8. ...
1 96 9
1 970
1971
1 972
1 973 .
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
197 9
1980
1981
1982
1983
1 984,
1985
1986

15.9
19.0
15.5
15.2
21.1
23.5
22.5
24.1
20.1
23,5
27.0
24.5
32.6
32.7
34.6
43.1
47.3
37.8
58.2
70.3
53.8
85.2
89.2
126.7
98.6
88.9
106.6
120,3
132.9
147.0
161.7
121.1
157.6
183.6

19.6
18.6
15.4
17.2
22.0
23.4
25 .2
19.4
21.3
26.5
26.1
23 .3
31.0
38.3
35.9
45.8
37.8
48.2
61.7
68.3
59.6
90 . 1
92.1
100.7
95.6
101.9
110.5
117 .6
136.5
167.0
156 .0
116.4
172 . 9
119.6

16.6
19.5
16.2
17.7
23.1
22,0
26.5
21.1
19.7
26.9
23.4
26.8
34.8
35.5
39.7
47.2
39.8
48.9
62.5
62.4
73.9
105.0
103.6
103.4
89.2
95.6
116.0
111.5
150.9
171.6
143 , 1
145.4
165.0
125.8

1973
1974
1 97 5
1 976
1 977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986

37.8
39.7
41.8
49,1
50.3
53 .5
51 .0
62.0
60.0
61 ,9
68.2
73 .0
78.7
87.9
94.8
96.7
103.2
107.2
108.6
121 .1

37 .8
39.8
2.5
9.5
1 .5
4.1
3.4
9.4
0.3
2.7
8.9
4.1
9.7
89.1
94.8
98.8
104.2
107 .6
108.4
125 .7

40 .2
38.0
44.9
50.3
51,2
53.1
56.9
60.3
59.3
64.2
71.4
74.7
79.8
91 .3
98.7
102 . 1
106,3
104.4
107.4
130.6

152.1
155.5
179.8
223.4
240.3
277.9
317.9
331.0
378.0
392.6
433,9
489.0
525.6

153.4
157.0
193.5
223.1
262.3
296.3
327,2
340.1
383.8
399.4
453.0
505.0
538.9

156.5
154.1
206.9
226.4
277 .2
305 . 5
335.5
343.1
397.2
409.6
472.0
510.0
560.1

158.4
163 .8
215.6
229.4
275.4
315.9
330 .4
351.9
405.4
411 .1
487 .3
520.3
553 .5




38.7
39.6
42.3
49.2
50.8
53.4
52.9
60.2
60.3
61.9
69.3
73.3
79.2
88.7
95.6
98.7
103.3
106.6
106.7
123.9
142.4
155.1
157.6
199.0
225.6
263.8
298,9
327 .8
341.5
391 . 1
403.2
461.6
506.1
544,5

6.8
7.4
6.0
5.5
7.2
7.5
7,0
7.0
5.6
6.3
6.8
5.9
7.3
6.8
6 .7
7.7
7,8
5.8
8.2
9.1
6.5
9.1
8.7
11.0
8.0
6.5
6.9
7.1
7.1
7.0
7.2
5.1
6.0
6.5

7.5
6.6
7.3
5,2
6.6
7.1
7.3
6.7
6.3
6.2
7.0
5.9
6.4
6.6
6 .6
8.1
7.6
5.4
7.0
8.5
7.2
8.3
10.1
8.1
8.2
5.8
7.3
7.4
6.9
7.4
7.0
5.9
6.9
5,2

1981
1 982
1 983
1984
1985
1986

AVERAGE

'
49 .9
52 .
51.
70.
7 8,
79.
63.
77.
83.
85.
92 .
99.
109.
123.
128.
130.
139.
164.2
157 .0
174. 5
202.3
255 . 9
245.0
250.0
283,5
358.5
416.5
462.3
432.7
539.2
443 ,1
4 6 2 .3
578.2
541.7

53.4
45.5
57 .'8
73.6
79,9
71.8
71.9
80.8
77 .8
88.3
91 .4
101.8
114.9
122.7
132.1
136.3
146.4
161.3
150 .2
176.8
220.4
272.9
248 .1
259.0
286 .0
350.4
440 .3
441,6
468,0
515 .0
387 ,4
519.9
565.5
524.1

52,3
51.0
51.6
68.4
77.3
77.1
64.5
80.5
84.2
82.6
91 .4
98.7
108.5
123.5
130.3
129.5
139.7
158.8
154.7
171.9
200.7
251 .9
247 , 9
238,7
283.0
335.4
408.6
458.4
445.0
522.0
446 .4
463.6
573.3
551.5

AVERAGE
8.1
7.3
5.9
6.1
7,4
7 .4
7 .7
5.6
5.9
7.0
6.6
5.6
6.8
7 .8
6.8
8.1
6.2
7.2
8.5
8.7
7.1
9.4
8.8
8.7
7.6
7 .3
7 .0
6 .7
7 .1
7 .7
6.8
4.8
6.4
4.2

6.7
7.6
6.1
6.2
7,6
6.9
8.0
6.0
5,4
7.0
5.8
6.3
7.5
7,0
7,4
8.2
6.4
7.2
8.5
7.9
8.4
10 .
9.
8.
6.
6.
7.
6.
7.5
7.8
6,2
5.8
6.0
4.4

7.3
7.2
6,3
5.8
7.2
7.2
7.5
6.3
5.8
6.6
6.5
5.9
7 .0
7.0
6.8
8.0
7 .0
6,4
8, 1
8.5
7.3
9.4
.3
.2
.6
.6
.1
.8
.1
.5
6.8
5.4
6.3
5 .1

AVERAGE

'
1 952
1953
1954
1955
1 956
1957
1958
1 959 ....
1 960
1 961
1962
1 963
1 964. ...
1965
1 966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986

Annual

G O V E R N M E N T S U R P L U S OR D E F I C I T

AVERAGE

39.1
40.8
40.1
47.8
. 50.1
53.1
50,2
59.3
61.5
58.9
68.6
71.4
78.7
86.6
94.1
97.1
99.4
107.4
102.5
118.3

NOTE: These series contain revisions beginning with 1983.

1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1 959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1 9 6 4 * ....
1965. ....
1966
1 967 . . .
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1 976
1977
1 97 8
1979

298.

2 9 5 . B U S I N E S S SAVING
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

1952
1953
1954
1 955
1956
1 957
1 958 ....
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1 965
1966
1 967
1 968
1 969
1970
1971

17.4
18.4
16.4
16.0
21.3
22 .7
24.3
21.8
20.8
24.9
25.9
24.6
31.5
34.3
36.0
45.1
42.5
42.2
57.7
66.3
61.4
89.0
96.7
104.6
95.8
90.7
110.2
118.1
136.9
159.4
153.9
130.6
168.7
143.3

49.4
53.5
49.6
67.6
76.3
78.6
59.2
86.1
84.4
80.2
91.6
99.9
105.3
125.0
131 .6
124.2
138.3
156.9
157.7
170.9
194.0
243.7
243.8
224.3
285.1
333.5
409.5
467.2
432.3
517.1
483.4
448.2
568.7
566.8

IV Q

2 9 3 . P E R S O N A L S A V I N G RATE
(PERCENT)

AVERAGE

17.6
16.6
18.8
14.0
19.3
21.9
23 .1
22.8
22.3
22.5
27.2
24.1
27.7
30.8
33.7
44.5
45.0
33.9
48.5
64,4
58.1
75.7
101.8
87.7
99.7
76.4
107.6
122.8
127.3
152.2
155.0
139.5
179.2
144.1

lit Q

290 . G R O S S ( S A V I N G
E, B L L I O N S

2 9 2 . P E R S O N A L SAVING
1 952
1953
1 954
1 955
1956
1 957
1 958
1959

II Q

IQ

AVERAGE

(PERCENT)

1952
1953
1 954 .
1955
1 956
1 957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1 962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1 983
1984
1 985
1986

Annual

-0.1
-5.1
-11.2
0.1
5.6
3.9
-10.0
-4.7
7.9
-5.1
-5.5
-1.8
-2.1
5,6
1.0
-14.1
-9.6
11.4
2.3
-18.2
-7.1
7 ,4
5.7
-46.2
-45.7
-17,6
-17.3
20.7
-12 . 1
-14.6
-76.0
-149.2
-87.5
-96.6

-4.4
-5.3
-7.7
3.3
5.0
1.5
-14.2
0.0
4,3
-5.2
-3.6
2.5
-6.1
4.4
2.2
-15.6
-12 ,2
11.9
-9.9
-21.3
-4.0
5.3
-2.4
-96.0
-36.6
-17.7
6.6
18.6
-41.9
-14.8
-77.7
-126,0
-93.9
-155.6

-7 . 2
-5.7
-6.6
3 .7
4.6
1.5
-14.9
-1.1
1 .4
-3 .9
-2 .7
1.8
-1 . 1
-3.8
-2 . 1
-14.4
-2.5
8.4
-14,0
-20.5
-0.7
9.4
-1.3
-57 .6
-38.5
-20.6
0.6
8.1
-48.6
-26.2
-122 . 5
-126 .2
-104.8
-138.0

-3 . 4
-12.0
-3.3
5 .5
5.5
-3.3
-11.5
-0.6
-1 .2
-2,9
-3.3
0.4
0.3
-4.0
-6,3
-13.0
0,4
8,0
-20 .7
-17 . 8
-1.7
9.6
-19.3
-60.0
-32,7
-20.6
8.5
-1.4
-35.5
-63,0
-166 .8
-112.9
-119.9
-155.1

-3 .8
-7.0
-7.1
3.1
5.2
0 .9
-12.6
- .6
3.1
-4.3
-3 .8
0.7
-2.3
0.5
-1.3
-14,2
-6 .0
9.9
-10.6
-19.5
-3 .4
7.9
-4.3
-64.9
-38.4
-19.1
-0,4
11.5
-34.5
-29.7
-110.8
-128,6
-101.5
-136.3

(DECEMBER 1986}

105

G. Experimental Data and Analyses

III

Foreign currency per U.S. dollar
Year
and
month
Vn ; in
i

Japan
(Yen)

West
Germany
(D. mark)

(Franc)

United
Kingdom
(Pound)

3.1706
3.3025
3.2982
3.0946
3.1093
3.0636
2.9083
2.7937
2.8381
2,6446
2.5954
2.5122

9.7036
10.0933
10.0776
9.4427
9.4829
9.3414
8.8513
8.5323
8.6599
8,0641
7.9095
7.6849

0.8872
0.9148
0.8887
0.8080
0.8011
0.7808
0.7243
0.7225
0.7330
0.7035
0.6946
0.6922

France

\r

mini

\

\

1985
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

254.18
260.48
257.92
251.84
251.73
248.84
241.14
237.46
236.53
214.68
204.07
202.79
199.89
184.85
178.69
175.09
167.03
167,54
158.61
154.18
154.73
156.47
162.85
2
162.75

2.4384
2.3317
2.2752
2.2732
2.2277
2.2337
2.1517
2.0621
2.0415
2.0054
2.0243
2
2.0032

7.4821
7.1575
6.9964
7.2060
7.0967
7.1208
6.9323
6.7215
6.6835
6.5628
6.6206
2
6.5643

Foreign currency per U.S. dollar

0.7020
0.6994
0.6815
0.6673
0,6574
0.6629
0.6635
0.6729
0.6804
0.7011
0.7023
2
0.6998

Italy

Canada
(Dollar)

Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1986
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

1,948.76
2,042.00
2,078.50
1,975.89
1,984.45
1,953.92
1,900.33
1,873.51
1,903.42
1,785.43
1,753.72
1,713,50
1,663.14
1,588.21
1,548.43
1,559.45
1,528.50
1,533.10
1,478.31
1,420.33
1,410.23
1,387.67
1,401.08
2
1 S 388.77

1.3240
1.3547
1.3840
1.3658
1.3756
1.3676
1.3526
1.3575
1.3703
1.3667
1.3765
1.3954
1.4070
1.4043
1,4009
1.3879
1.3757
1.3899
1.3808
1.3885
1.3872
1.3885
1.3863
2
1.3800

152.83
158.43
158.14
149.56
149.92
147.71
140.94
137.55
139.14
130.71
128.08
125.80
123.65
118.77
116,05
115.67
113.27
113,77
110.38
107.50
107.15
106.58
107.90
2
107.18

III

in

-«s.

*\

^

Ratio scale
300

A
? ^V

260

v

^

/">f^

+r P~"v"s
S

^\T
v

\

•'X iJ

|/

,/ \

140
3.2
2.6

\

-^S fJ

v*\

EE

\
y \ \s
j

EE

0.5

y/ \

\

2000
1800
1600
1

/

1400

EE

800
1.6

(index: March 1973-100)
/^

A J
T
^y -^v^ '\*S

III

III

'

s~

/A
ill

r

1.4

f-**o

1.2
1.0
160

y\
^

140
120

EE
III

HI

III

III III III

74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87

*This index is the weighted-average exchange value of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of the other G-10 countries
plus Switzerland. Weights are the 1972-76 global trade of each of the 10 countries. For a description of this index, see
the August 1978 FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN (p. 700).
2
Average for December 1 through 19.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

106



1200
1000

[Exchange value of the U.S. dollar

\^

5
0.9
0.8
0.7

X

—^N S*yv
^T v— •s^s

|

7

0.6

Canada (dollar)

II

2.0

6

J

r

s~*~ ^-v_
^^

2.4

10
9
8

1
^v ^v/> f^

-^
•^*\~~> /

III

\J

/

^

/A^
J
vX^
-A

160

f

Italy (lira)

III III

EE

1.6

/
/

I I

220

EE

United Kingdom (pound) N^
J
"^
+r
^ /V
A/
' v
v

/

\xs ^f

+/

J

A

V-v_

/\

(d . mar k)

Frarice ( ranc)

^x—•

III III

III

^

A

v^ /

1985

II

1

\ A\

v\lestG erma ny

\A
V >

(March 1973=100)

3 vi

II

V

Exchange value
of the U . S .
dollar1

(Lira)

Yfiar
and
month
Vrt

III

f^

1986
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

III

III

Foreign currency per U.S. dollar—
1
-^
Japan (yen)
^

100
80

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes
Net contribution to index

Basic data
(and

Series title
unit of measure)

Aug.
1986

LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average weekly hours of production or non40.8
supervisory workers, manufacturing (hours). . .
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemploy1
ment insurance, State programs ( t h o u s . ) . . , .
379
8. M f r s . ' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer
goods and materials industries (bil. d o l . ) . . ,
85.25
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies
receiving slower deliveries (percent)
51
12. Net business formation
(index: 1967=100) . . . . .
. . .
119.5
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
i n 1982 dollars (bil d o l . ) . . . .
. . .
32.26
29. New private housing units authorized by
local building permits (index: 1967=100). . . .
133.4
36. Change in inventories on hand and on order in
2
1982 d o l . , smoothed (ann. rate, bil. d o l . ) . .
-5.04
99. Change in s e n s i t i v e materials prices,
smoothed 2 (percent)
r-0.18
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index: 1941-43=10)
245.00
106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars
(bil. dol.)
r2,399.8
111. Change in business and consumer credit
outstanding (ann. rate, percent)
r6.5
910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators 3
(index: 1967=100)
179.1
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
100,283
(thous. )
51. Personal income less transfer payments in
1982 dollars (ann. rate, bil. d o l . ) . . . . . . r 2 , 6 0 8 . 4
47. Industrial production
(index: 1977=100)
125.1
57.. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982
dollars (mil . d o l . )
r 4 2 1 ,843
920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident
3
indicators (index: 1967=100)
.
r!64.5
LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment 1
15.8
(weeks ) .
. .
. . . .
77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories
1.53
to sales in 1982 dollars (ratio)
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing-actual data as a percent of trend (percent) . .
80.3
109. Average prime rate charged by banks
(percent)
7 .90
101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
r344,127
in 1982 dollars ( m i l . d o l . )
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit
outstanding to personal income (percent). . . .
r!6.48
930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators 3
r!31 .9
(index: 1967=100)

Sept.
1986

Oct.
1986

Aug.
to
Sept.
1986

Nov.
1986

Sept.
to
Oct.
1986

Oct.
to
Nov.
1986

40.8

r40.7

p40.9

0.00

369

343

342

0.07

0 .20

88.32

r87.41

p86.07

0.17

-0.05

-0.08

52

54

56

0.04

0.08

0.09

120.9

r 120.1

pl!9.7

0.16

-0.09

-0.05

33.60

r32.30

P

34.59

0.09

-0.09

0.16

127 .8

124.8

-0.13

-0.07

0.10

-0.04

-0.22

128.6

r-6.59

p-15.64

-0 .52

rO.13

238.27

237 .36

245.09

r 2 , 4 0 6 .1

r2,423.7

r4.8

NA

-0.08

0 .17
0.01

NA

-0.13

0.26

0.47

-0.17

-0.02

0.22

p2,430.4

0.08

0.23

0.10

r9.4

p6.3

-0.09

0.24

-0.18

r!80.4

p!82 .5

0.22

0.50

1.16

rlOO,560

rlOO,820

p!01,069

0 .23

0.21

0.26

r2,601.6

r2,606.3

p2,612.2

-0.13

0 .09

0.15

p!25.9

0.00

0.02

0.20

P423,742

NA

0.58

-0.47

r!64.8

P165.5

0.55

-0.36

14.8

0.09

179.5

r ! 2 5 .1
r432,903
165.4

15.6

125.2

15.2

1.23

0.28

NA

-0.53

p79.2

-0.15

0 .26

-0.75

7.50

-0.28

0 .00

0.00
0.25

NA

79.9

80.6

7 .50

7.50
r344,430

p346,696

-0.13

0.16

16.66

p!6.79

NA

0 .69

0.50

131 .5

r ! 3 3 .5

p!33,2

-0.30

1.52

r342,415

0.42

0.40

pi. 52

1 .49

0.19

NA

NA
-0.22

NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. It is
computed by dividing the standardized and weighted change for the component by the sum of the weights for the available components
and dividing that result by the index standardization factor. See the February 1983 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 108-109) or
the 1984 HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (pp. 67-68) for the weights and standardization factors. NA, not available, p, preliminary, r, revised, e, estimated.
1
This
2
This
3

series is inverted in computing the composite index; i.e., a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement.
series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding
differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment factor
for the leading index is 0.139; for the coincident index, -0.175; for the lagging index, 0.018.




107

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
. M O N T H S DE,VIFROM A T I O N S CURRENT MONTH
AND
FROM ACTUAL
7/81
DATA
YEAR

41. Employees on nonagricultural
payrolls

Devi-

41. Employees on nonagricultural

SERIES
41
THOUSANDS
37
38
39
40

•106,000

• 104.000

• 102,000

8.1
8.6
8.7
8.8

41
42
43
44

9.1
99783
9.2 99918
9.2 99843
9.4 100105

45
46
47
48

98910 12/85
99296
1/86
99429
2/86
99484
3/86
4/86
5/86
6/86
7/86

9.6 100283
8/86
9.9 100560
9/86
10.2 100820 10/86
10.5 101069 11/86

MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
AND
SPEC.
FROM ACTUAL
12/82
TROUGH
DATA YEAR
SERIES
41
THOUSANDS

• 100,000
36

11.6 98910 12/85

37
38
39
40

12.0 99296
12.2 99429
12.2 99484
12.5 99783

1/86
2/86
3/86
4/86

• 9,0
600

41
42
43
44

12.7 99918
12.6 99843
12.9 100105
13.1 100283

5/86
6/86
7/86
8/86

•9,0
400

45
46
47

13.4 100560
13.7 100820
14.0 101069

• 98,000

• 92,000

• 90,000

9/86
10/86
11/86

MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
AND
FROM ACTUAL
REF.
DATA YEAR
7/81
TROUGH
SERIES
46
1967=100
37
38
39
40

17 .9
16.3
15.4
12.2

145
143
142
138

12/85
1/86
2/86
3/86

41
42
43
44

7.3
4.1
14.6
13.8

132
128
141
140

4/86
5/86
6/86
7/86

45
46
47
48

•88,000

8.9
9.8
14.6
18.7

134
135
141
146

8/86
9/86
10/86
11/86

MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
AND
SPEC.
FROM ACTUAL
9/82
DATA YEAR
TROUGH
SERIES
46
1967-100
39
40

• 90
• 60

98.6
95.9

145
143

12/85
1/86

41
42
43
44

94.5
89.0
80.8
75.3

142
138
132
128

2/86
3/86
4/86
5/86

45
46
47

93.2
91.8
83.6
84.9

141
140
134
135

6/86
7/86
8/86
9/86

49
50

93.2
100.0

141
146

10/86
11/86

-I -40

mill mil mi mil In HI inn in immiliimlm
-6
0 + 6 +12 + 18+24+30+36+42+48
Months from reference troughs

NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 107 of the July 1986 issue.

108




nn.i.nnl
1
Inn.lnn.ln.nl
Imnl,
-6
0 + 6 +12+18 + 24+30+36+42+48
Months from specific troughs

from

Actual
data

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns—Continued
• Devi- .Actual
data
ations
for .
from
current
reference
cycle

53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars,
mining, mfg.-, and construction

37
38
39
40

• 540

I"1"!'""!'""!

1

53. Wages and salaries in 1982
dollars, mining, mfg., and

SERIES
53
ANN. RATE
B I L . DOL.
0.7
541 .5 1 2 / 8 5
0.6
541.1 1/86
0.6
541.0
2/86
0.8
542.0
3/86

41
42
43
44

• 560

| IM "I

MONTHS
DEVIFROM A T I O N S I C U R R E N T J M O N T H
REF.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
7/81
DATA YEAR

1.3
1.1
0.2
0.2

544,7
543,7
539.0
538.9

4/86
5/86
6/86
7/86

45
46
47
48

0,7
0.2
1.2
0.7

541.4
8/86
539.0
9/86
544.4 10/86
541.6 11/86

DEVIMONTHS
FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
AND
FROM ACTUAL .
DATA YEAR
•TROUGH
11/82

37
38
39
40

SERIES
53
ANN. RATE
B I L .D O L .
11.9
541.5
12/85
11.8
5 4 1 , 1 1/86
11.8
541,0 2/86
12.0
542.0
3/86

• 500

41
42
43
44

12.6
12.4
11.4
11.4

544.7
543,7
539.0
538.9

•4 0
8

45
46
47
48

11.9
11.4
12.5
11 .9

541.4 8/86
539.0
9/86
544.4 10/86
541 .6 1 1 / 8 6

• 520

- -10

• 460
-I -15

4/86
5/86
6/86
7/86

DEVIMONTHS
FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
AND
FROM ACTUAL
.REF.
DATA YEAR
7/81
TROUGH
SERIES 920
1967=100
37
38
39
40

920. Composite index of 4 coincident',
indicators
.', ;
' ,
• 175

• 165

1 0 . 4 •*
10.4
10.7
10.4

^ Composite index of 4
:
920.

163.0
12/85
1 6 2 . 9 1/86
1 6 3 . 4 2/86
1 6 2 . 9 3/86

~J o

coincident indicators
'C.CtC 1

41
42
43
44

12.1
11.2
10.9
11.2

1 6 5 . 5 4/86
164,2
5/86
163 .7
6/86
164.2 7/86

.45
46
47
48

11.4
12.1
11 .7
12.1

164.5 8/86
1 6 5 . 4 9/86
164.810/86
165.5
11/86

• 175
• 170

MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
12/82
DATA YEAR
SERIES 920
1967=100

-

0
• 145

36

22.9

162.9
163.4
162.9
165.5

• 135

- -10
-" -15

• 125

22.9

38
39
40

- -5

23.2
22.9
24.8

41
42
43
44

23.8
23.8
24.1

164.2
163 .7
164.2
164.5

45
46
47

24.7
24.3
24.8

165.4
164.8
165.5

23.5

0 + 6 +12+18+24+30+36 + 42+48
Months from reference troughs
NOTE

• 150

163.0

37

10

• 145
• 140
• 135

-6

0 + 6 + 1 2 + 1 8 + 24+ 30+36+ 42+48
Months from specific troughs

For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 107 of the July 1986 issue.




109

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources ot Series," following this index)

Agricultural products, exports
Anticipations and intentions
Consumer sentiment, index
Employees, manufacturing and trade, 01
Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Plant and equipment expenditures, constant dollars..
Plant and equipment expenditures, current dollars....
Plant and equipment expenditures, 01
Prices, manufacturing, 01
Prices, retail trade, Dl
Prices, wholesale trade, 01.
Profits, manufacturing and Irade, 01
Sales, manufacturing and trade, 01
Automobiles
Imports ot automobiles and parts
Personal consumption expenditures
Balance of paymenls—See International transactions.
Bank loans-See Business Loans,
Bank rates—See Interest rates.
Bank reserves
Free reserves
Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve....
Bonds- ^See Interest rates.
Borrowing-See Credit.
Budget -See Government.
Building- See Construction.
Building permits, new private housing
Business equipment, industrial production
Business expenditures—See Investment, capital.
Business failures, current liabilities,...,...,
Business formation, index
Business incorporations
Business inventories—See Inventories,
Business loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
,
Loans outstanding, net change
Business saving..,, ,
,

Current issue
uktnrirfli
Series JP!E=$!2L "'dT'
number Charts Tables (issue date)

804
58
974
975
971
100
61
970
976
978
977
972
973

22

616
55

93
94

See notes at end ot index.

110



38
38
38

65
76
76
76
67
67
76
76
76
76
76
76

11/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
11/86
11/86
11/86
12/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
12/85

"23
23
37
37
37
37
37

56
22

92
65

12/85
10/86

56
39

38
24
24

33
33

72
72

4/85
4/85

20
37
37
37

35
35

13,25
24

67
67

6/86
12/86

24
12

14
12
13

33
12,23
23

72
65
65

12/85
6/86
6/86

34
21
21

101
72
112
295

15,35
35
32
46

73
73
71
82

6/86
6/86
6/86
12/86

32
32
32
26

20
20

64
64

12/86
12/86

14
14

97
11
965
333

24
24
37

66
66
75

12/86
12/86
10/86
7/86

22
22
22
51

914
35
34

11
29
29

60
70
70

1/86
10/86
10/86

5
26
26

442
90
441
37

51
17
51
18,51

89
62
89
62,89

4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86

9
9
9
9

920
920c
951
940
9

10
39
36
11
23

60

'74'
60
66

9/85
,9/85
1/86
1/86
10/85

5
5
21

101
72
112

15,35
35
32

73
73
71

6/86
6/86
6/86

32
32
32

345
280

49
45

87
82

10/86
11/86

46
46

64

30,47

70,83

10/86

46

346

49

10/86

46

340

49

87

8/86

5

341
348
349

49
50
50

87

8/86
9/85
9/85

5
53
53

63

9/86

60

9/85
9/85
1/86

Materials

Twelve leaders, index
Twelve leaders, rate of change

12/85

29
76

Canada- See International comparisons.
Capacity utilization
Manufacturing
,
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Backlog
,
Newly approved
,
,
Newly approved, Dl
Capital equipment, producer price index
Capital investment- See Investment, capital,
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Cash How. corporate, constant dollars
Cash flow, corporate, current dollars
Civilian labor force—See also Employment.
Employment
Employment as percent ot population
Labor loree
,
Unemployed
Coincident indicators, four
Composite index
,
Composite index, rate ol change
Diffusion index
,
Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index
Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded...
Commercial and industrial loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
,
Loans outstanding, net change
Compensation—See also Income.
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Compensation ol employees
Compensation ot employees, percent of
national income
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life ot contract
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
Composite indexes
Coincident indicators
Four comciders, index...
. ,
Four comciders, rate of change
Ratio to lagging indicator index
Lagging indicators
Six (aggers, index
Six laggers, rate of change
Leading indicators
Capital investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing
Money and financial flows
Profitability

56

Series
description
(*)

920
920c
940

10
39
11

930
930c

10
39

914
915
917
916
910
910c

11
11
11
11
10
39

9/85
9/85
60
60
60
60
60

1/86
1/86
1/86
1/86
9/85
9/85

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series/' following this index)
Construction
Building permits, new private housing
Contracts awarded, commercial and
industrial buildings
Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales
Gross private fixed investment
Nonresidential, constant dollars
Presidential, percent of GNP
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Residential, constant dollars
Residential, percent of GNP
Housing starts
.
.
Consumer finished goods, producer price index
Consumer goods and materials, new orders
Consumer goods, industrial production
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Consumer prices—See also International comparisons.
All items...
Food
Consumer sentiment, index.
.
. .
Consumption expenditures—See Personal
consumption expenditures.
Contract awards, Defense Department.
. . .
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars.
....
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
current dollars
Corporate bond yields
Corporate profits—See Profits.
Costs—See Labor costs and Price indexes,
Credit
Borrowing, total private
Business loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Credit outstanding, percent change
Mortgage debt, net change
Crude and intermediate materials, change in
producer prices
Crude materials, producer price index

Debt-See Credit.
Defense and space equipment, industrial production ....
Defense Department
Gross obligations incurred
Gross unpaid obligations
Net outlays
Personnel, civilian
Personnel, military
Prime contract awards
Defense products
Inventories, manufacturers'
New orders, manufacturers'
Shipments, manufacturers'
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products industries, employment
Defense purchases, goods and services
Defense purchases, percent of GNP
Deficit—See Government.
Deflators—See Price indexes.
Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans
Deliveries, vendor performance
Diffusion indexes
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Coincident indicators
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls
Industrial production
Industrial production, components
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Inventories, manufacturing and trade
Lagging indicators
Leading indicators
New orders, durable goods industries
New orders, durable goods industries, components..
New orders, manufacturing
Plant and equipment expenditures
Profits, manufacturing
Profits, manufacturing and trade
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Raw industrials, spot market prices, components ....
Sales, manufacturing and trade
Selling prices, manufacturing
Selling prices, retail trade
Selling prices, wholesale trade
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Workweek, manufacturing
Workweek, manufacturing, components
Disposable personal income—See income.

Current issue
Series (page numbers)
number Charts Tables

29 13,25

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

6/86

9
69

23
24

66
67

10/85

21
17

248
87
89
249
28
334

25
47
25
25
47
25
48
12,21
22

67
83
67
67
83
67
86
64
65

10/86
11/86
10/86
10/86
11/86
6/86
7/86
5/86
12/86

40
40
40
40
40
24
51
15
12

66
113
95
39

35
32
15,35
33

73
72
73
72

6/86
6/86
9/86
7/85

33
33
33
34

320
322
58

49
49
22

84,95
84
65

8/86
8/86
11/85

49
49
20

525

53

90

12/85

55

20

12,23

66

12/86

21

10
116

23
34

66
73

12/86
9/85

21
35

110

32

10/86

101 15,35
72
35
112
32

73
73
71

6/86
6/86
6/86

32
32
32

66
113
95
39
111
33

35
32
15,35
33
13,32
32

73
72
73
72
72
71

6/86
6/86
9/86
7/85
8/86
9/86

33
33
33
34
31
31

331

28
48

69
85

6/86
7/86

51
50

557

54

517
543
580
578
577
525

53
53
54
55
55
53

90
90
91
91
91
90

11/85
12/85
12/85
5/86
10/85
12/85

55
55
56
56
56
55

559
548
588
561
570
564
565

54
53
54
54
55
55
55

91
90
91
91
91
91
91

7/85
7/85
7/85
7/85
8/86
10/86
10/86

17
15
17
15
5
43
43

39
32

33
12,21

72
64

7/85
1/86

34
17

965
951
974
963
966

37
36
38
36
37

10/86
1/86
12/85
9/86
12/86

22
5
37
5

962
975
952
950
964

'36
38
36
36
37

12/86
12/85
1/86
1/86
7/85

37
5
5
15

971
970
960
972
967

38
38
37
38
37

973
976
978
977
968
961

38
38
38
38
37
36

75
74
76
74
75
78
74
76
74
74
75
77
76
76
75
76
75
79
76
76
76
76
75
74
77

12/86

12

12/85
11/86
12/85
12/85
1/86

'a?'

12/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
7/85
8/86

3?
37
37
37
25
5

23
37
3?
25

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

Earnings—See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Civilian labor force
Defense Department personnel, civilian
Defense Department personnel, military
Employee hours in nonagricultura! establishments
Rate of change

Total

Employees in goods-producing industries
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Employees on nonagncultural payrolls
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, Dl..
Employment, civilian
Employment, defense products industries
Employment, ratio to population
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment....
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Initial claims. State unemployment insurance, Dl..,.
Overtime hours, manufacturing
Participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age ..
Participation rate, females 20 years and over
Participation rate, males 20 years and over
Part-time workers for economic reasons
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age
Unemployed, females 20 years and over
Unemployed, full-time workers
Unemployed, males 20 years and over
Unemployment, average duration
Unemployment, civilian...:
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured
Unemployment rate, total
Workweek, manufacturing
Workweek, manufacturing, components
Workweek, manufacturing, Dl
Equipment-See Investment, capital.
Exports—See International transactions.

Federal funds rate
,
Federal Government—See Government.
Federal Reserve, member bank borrowings from,.
Final sales in constant dollars
Financial flows, C l . . .
Fixed investment—See Investment, capital.
Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic
business product
Food—See Consumer prices.
Foreign trade—See International transactions.
France—See International comparisons.
Free reserves

Goods output in constant dollars
Government budget
Federal expenditures
Federal receipts
Federal surplus or deficit
State and local expenditures

State and local receipts

Current issue
Series (paee numbers)
number Charts Tables

441
578
577

51
55
55

48c
48
40'
974
41
963
442
570
90
46
60
5
962
21
453
452
451
448
42
446
445
447
444
91
37
44
45
43
1

39
17
17
38
14,17
36
51
55
17
16
16
12,16
36
16
51
51
51
51
17
51
51
51
51
15,18
18,51
18
18
18
12,16

961

36

119

33
40
11

61
62
76
62
74
89
91
62
61
61
61
74
61
89
89
89
89
62
89
89
89
89
62
62,89
62
62
62
61
77
74

4/86
5/86
10/85
9/86
9/86
8/86
12/85
8/86
9/86
4/86
8/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
12/86
12/86
8/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
8/86

Series

9
56
56
5
5
37
5
5
9
5
9
9
9

72
80
60

4/85
10/86
1/86

35
38
5

10/86

311

4/85

10/86

.

State and focal surplus or deficit
Surplus or deficit, total
Government purchases of goods and services
Federal, constant dollars
Federal, current dollars
Federal, percent of GNP
National defense ,
National defense, percent of GNP
State and local, constant dollars
State and local, current dollars
State and local, percent of GNP ....
Total, constant dollars..
Total, current dollars
Gross domestic business product, fixed-weighted
price index
Gross domestic product, tabor cost per unit
Gross national product
GNP, constant dollars
GNP, constant dollars, differences
GNP, constant dollars, percent changes
GNP, current dollars
GNP, current dollars, differences
GNP, current dollars, percent changes
GNP, ratio to money supply Ml
Goods output in constant dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP, constant dollars
Gross private domestic investment—See Investment, capital.

H
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Hours, manufacturing
Average weekly hours
Average weekly hours, components
Average weekly hours, Dl
Average weekly overtime
;

502
501
500
512
511
510
298

52
52
52
52
^52
52
46

90
90
90
90
90
83

10/86
10/86
10/86
10/86
10/86
10/86
12/86

53
53
53
53
53
53
48

263
262
265
564
565
267
266
268
261
260

43
43
47 .
55
55
43
43
47
43
43

81
81
83
91
91
81
81
83
81
81

11/86
11/86
11/86
10/86
10/86
11/86
11/86
11/86
11/86
11/86

43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43

84
70

10/86
10/86

49
28

63,80

10/86
10/86
10/86
10/86
10/86
10/86
8/86
10/86
10/86
10/86

38
38
38
38
38
38
30
14
38
38

311
68
50
50b
50c
200
200b
200c
107
49
310
217

19,40
39
40.
31
20
48
40

46
60

61
61

12,16
961
21

71
63

36
16

4/86
4/86

61
77
74
61

8/86
8/86

Current issue
Series (Page "umbers)
number Charts Tables

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)

description
(*)

9/85

34

94
213
917

89
91
91

Historical
data
(issue date)

Housing
Housing starts
Housing units authorized by local building permits..
Residential GP01, constant dollars
Residential GPDI, percent of GNP

Total, components.
Total, Dl,
.
Total, rate of change.
Industrials, raw, spot market prices
Components
. ,..
Diffusion index
..
,
Spot market index
.
. .
Installment credit-See Credit.
Insured unemployment
Average weekly initial claims
Average weekly initial claims, Dl
Average weekly insured unemployment rate
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income.
Interest rates
Bank rates on short-term business loans.
Corporate bond yields.
.
Federal funds rate
Mortgage yields, secondary market
.
Municipal bond yields. .
Prime rate charged by banks
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields.
Intermediate materials, producer price index
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada
France
. . .
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States.
. .
West Germany,
Industrial production
Canada .
France
.

....

. ..
...

. .
. .

25
13,25
25
47

6/86
6/86
10/86
11/86

24
24
40
40

67
67
67
83

310

10/86

345
280

49
45

87
82

10/86
11/86

46

64

30,47

70,83

10/86

46

346
95
286

49
15,35
45

73
82

10/86
9/86
12/86

46
33
26

287
225
224

47
40
40

12/86
10/86
10/86

26
11
11

227

10/86

340

8/86

341
652
651
288
289
220
52
223

49
57
57
45
47
45
19
40

87
93
93
82
83
82
63
63

8/86
8/86
8/86
12/86
12/86
10/86
9/86
9/86

5
57
57
47
47
46
11
11

51c
51
108
282

39
14,19
31
45

63
71
82

9/86
9/86
9/86
11/86

11
30
47

283
284

47
45

83
82

11/86
11/86

47
47

285
348
349

47
50
50

11/86
9/85
9/85

47
53
53

53
13
335

19
23
48

9/86
6/86
7/86

11
21
51

12/86
12/86
12/86
12/86
12/86
12/86

12
12
13
12
12
12

63
65
85

24
67
22
65
54
91
20
63
20
63
47 14,20,58 63,94
78
966
37
75
47c
39

76
75
557
73
74

12/86
12/86

967
23

37
28

79
75
69

1/86
1/86

25
25

5
962
45
288
289

.
.

Italy
Japan
OECD, European countries
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany

Series
description
(*)

28
29
89
249

Implicit price deflator, GNP
.
Imports—See International transactions.
Income
Compensation, average hourly, nonlarm
business sector
Compensation of employees
„
Compensation of employees, percent of
national income
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Consumer installment credit, ratio to personal income
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Disposable personal income, constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita,
constant dollars
Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Income on foreign investment in the United States ..
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Interest, net
.
.
Interest, net, percent of national income
National income
..
....
Personal income, constant dollars
...
Personal income, current dollars
Personal income less transfer payments, constant dollars
Rate of change
Total
Personal income, ratio to money supply M2
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income. .
....
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
. ..
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income..
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction.
Incorporations, new businesses
. .
Industrial commodities, producer price index .
Industrial production—See also International comparisons.
Business equipment
Consumer goods
Defense and space equipment.
Durable manufactures
Nondurable manufactures

Total....

Historical
data
(issue date)

12,16
36
18
45
47

61
74
62
82
83

12/86
12/86
4/86
12/86
12/86

47
47

67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115
332

35
34
34
34
34
35
34
34
48

73
73
72
73
73
73
72
73

12/86
9/85
9/85
9/85
9/85
6/85
9/85
9/85
7/86

35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
50

733
736
737
738
732
320
735

59
59
59
59
59
49
59

96
95
96
95
95
84,95
95

6/85
6/85
6/85
6/85
6/85
8/86
6/85

60
61
61
61
60
49
61

94
58
723
58
94
726
94
727
58
94
58
728
58
94
721
58
94
722
47 14,20,58 63,94
725
58
94

12/86
10/85
9/86
10/85
10/85
10/85
12/86
10/85

59
59
59
59
58
58
12
59

See notes at end of index.




111

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources ol Series," following this index)
International comparisons- Continued
Stock prices
Canada
France
,.,
.. .
Italy .
Japan
United Kingdom
.,
United States
West Germany
International transactions
Balance on goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports excluding military aid
Exports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Exports ol goods and services, constant dollars
Exports of goods and services, current dollars
Exports of goods and services, excluding military . ...
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
Imports general
,.
Imports, merchandise, adiusted, excluding military
Imports of automobiles and parts
Imports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services, constant dollars.. .
Imports ol goods and services, current dollars
Imports ol petroleum and petroleum products
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Net exports of goods and services,
constant dollars
Net exports of goods and services,
currenl dollars
,.,..
Net exports of goods and services, percent of GNP
Inventories
Business inventories change constant dollars .
Business inventories, change, current dollars
Business inventories change percent ot GNP
Defense products, manufacturers'
Finished goods manufacturers' ,.
Inventories to sales ratio, manufacturing and trade
Inventory investment and purchasing Cl
Manufacturing and trade book value
Manufacturing and trade constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade, 01
Manufacturing and trade, on hand and
on order, change
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers'
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manulacturers', change
Investment, capital
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, Dl
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial . . .
Construction expenditures, business, plus machinery
and equipment sales
. . .
Gross private domestic investment
Business inventories, change— See Inventories.
Fixed investment, constant dollars
Fixed investment, current dollars
Presidential constant dollars
Nonresidential percent of GNP
Nonresidential producers' durable equipment,
constant dollars
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Residential, constant dollars
Residential, percent of GNP.
Total constant dollars
Total, current dollars
New orders, nondefense capital goods,
constant dollars
New orders, nondeiense capital goods,
current dollars
. .
Plant and equipment
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
..
Expenditures by business constant dollars
Expenditures by business, current dollars
Expenditures by business, Dl
Investment, foreign
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Italy—See International comparisons.

Current issue
(page numbers)
Series ,
number Charts Tables

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)

743
746
747
748
742
19
745

59
59
59
59
59
59
59

96
96
96
96
96
96
96

11/85
11/85
11/85
11/85
11/85
11/85
11/85

57
57
56
57
56
44
44
57
56
56
57
56
57
44
44
56
57
57

93
93
92
93
92
82
82
93
92
92
93
92
93
82
82
92
93
93

8/86
8/86

44

82

11/86

44
47

82
83

11/86
11/86

44
44

30
245
247
559
65
77
915
71
31
70
975

26,42
42
47
54
27
15,27
11
27
26
27
38

68,81
81
83
91
68
68
60
68
68
68
76

9/86

40
40
40
17
17
17
5
17
17
17
37

36

13,26

68

78

27

38
97
11
965
914
9

8/86

12/85
11/86
11/86

,
.

8/86

12/85
12/85
8/86

12/85
8/86

11/86
11/86
12/85
8/86
8/86

.

11/86
11/86
7/85
6/85

11/86
1/86

10/85
6/85

11/86
12/85
9/86
6/85

68

6/85

66
66
75
60
66

12/86
12/86
10/86

24

67

8/86

17

243
242
86
248

42
42
25
47

81
81
67
83

11/86
11/86
10/86
11/86

40
40
40
40

88
87
89
249
241
240

25
25
25
47
42
42

67
67
67
83
81
81

10/86
10/86
10/86
11/86
11/86
11/86

40
40
40
40
40
40

27

23

66

5/86

Defense products

23

66

5/86

12,23
23
24
24
38

66
66
67
67
76

12/86
12/86
11/86
11/86
11/86

21
21

652
651

57
57

93
93

8/86
8/86

57
57

23
23

P
Participation rates, civilian labor force
Both sexes 16-19 years of age

J
Japan—See International comparisons.
L
Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product
Labor cost per unit of output business sector
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Actual data
Actual data as percent of trend
Labor force—See Employment,
Lagging indicators, six
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
, ,
See notes at end of index.

112



68
63

30
30

70
70

10/86
8/86

28
28

62
62
26

30
15
29

70
70
70

9/86
9/86
8/86

28
28
28

930
930c
952

10
39
36

60
74'

9/85
9/85
1/86

5
"5"

6/85

rt '

26
20
12,21

68
64
64

6/85

i?

12/86
5/86

14
IS

11

60

1/86

5

31
31
31
13,31
31
31
31
32
34
34

71
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
73
73

6/86
6/86
6/86
6/86
6/86
8/86
9/86 "
9/86
9/85
9/85

29
29
29
30
29
30
30
31
35
3S

23
23
12,21

66
66
64

5/86
5/86
5/86

15
15
15

12,23

66

12/86

21

10
548
7
6

23
53
21
21

7/85
5/86
5/86

21
15
15
15

37
38

66
90
64
64
77
75
76

12/86

964
971

7/85

12/85

'is'

88
87
86
248

25
25
25
47

67
67
67
83

10/86
10/86
10/86
11/86

40
40
40
40

517
543
721

53
53
58

90
90
94

11/85
12/85
10/85

55
55
58

580

.

Labor cost per unit of
Actual data
..
Actual data as percent of trend
Per hour business sector
Per hour, nonfarm business sector
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing .
Ratio to capacity, materials
Overtime hours, manufacturing

15

20
10
100
61
970

68

20

0
Obligations incurred Defense Department
,
Obligations unpaid Defense Department
OECD European countries industrial production
Orders— See New orders and Unfilled orders.
Outlays Defense Department
Output— See also Gross national product and
Industrial production,

15

24

27

27
24
8

Durable goods industries current dollars
Components
Diffusion index
New orders manufacturing Dl ....
Nonresidential fixed investment
Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars
Structures constant dollars
Total constant dollars
..
Total percent of GNP

1/86

.

12/85

54

91

12/85

5S

20

63

10/86

14

62
62
370
358
82
84
21

30
15
50
50
20
20
16

70
70
88
88
64
64
61

9/86
9/86

8/86

28
28
S2
52
14
14
5

453
452
451

51
51
51

89
89
89

4/86
4/86
4/86

9
9
9

55
233
232
238
236
239
237
231
230
235

22
41
41
41 "
41
41
41
41
41
47

65
80
80
81
81
81
81
80
80
83

10/86
11/86
11/86
11/86
11/86
11/86
11/86
11/86
11/86
11/86

39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39

292
293
614

46
46
56

82
83
92

12/86
12/86
12/85

48
48
56

60

9/85
9/85
1/86
6/86

'

"5"
34
29

N

21

69

72
71

104
105
85
106
102
107
JOS
33
118
117

National defense—See Defense,
National Government—See Government,
National income— See Income.
New orders, manufacturers'
Capital goods industries, nondefense,
constant dollars
Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dollars
Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,

22
22
22

10/85

'74"

917

Mortgage debt, net change
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields

17

24
24
37
11
23

10
39
36
33
31

38
84
8

Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers' inventories, change
Materials capacity utilization rate
Materials, new orders for consumer goods and
Materials prices— See Price indexes.
Merchandise trade— See International transactions.
Military-See Defense.
Money and financial flows, Cl
Money supply
Liquid assets, change in total,
Money supply Ml, constant dollars
Money supply Ml, percent changes
Money supply M2, constant dollars
Money supply M2, percent changes . .
...
Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml

17

26

5

950
14
104

910
910c

M
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,

17

68

Series
description
(*)

49

44

250
251

12/85

Historical
data
(issue date)

78

57
57
56
57
56
44
44
57
56
56
57
56
57
44
44
56
57
57

255

Leading indicators, twelve
Composite index
Composite index rate of change
Diffusion index
Liabilities of business failures
Liquid assets, change in total
Loans— See Credit.

63
63
63
63
63
25
63

667
622
602
618
604
256
252
668
606
612
620
616
669
257
253
614
652
651

Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number Charts Tables

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and .
Sources of Series," following this index)

'

Males 20 years and over
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles ...
Durable goods constant dollars
Durable goods current dollars
Nondurable goods, constant dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services, constant dollars
Services, current dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total current dollars
Total percent of GNP
Personal income— See Income.
Personal saving
Petroleum and petroleum products, imports

... .

.

10/86
10/86
12/86
12/86

37

'

'

ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Current issue
Series *p8ge numbers)
number Charts Tables

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Plant and equipment—See also Investment, capital.
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
. . .
Expenditures by business, constant dollars
Expenditures by business, current dollars
.
Expenditures by business, Dl
.
Population, civilian employment as percent of
Price indexes
Consumer prices—See also International comparisons.
All items
Food
.
.
.
.
Deflators
Fixed-weighted, gross domestic business product
Implicit price deflator, GNP
.
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Producer prices
All commodities
Capital equipment
Crude materials .
. .
Finished consumer goods
.
..
. .
Industrial commodities .
Intermediate materials
.
.
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
. .
Diffusion index
Spot market index
.
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices .
.
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
Stock prices—See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
..
500 common stocks, Dl
... .
Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
Prices, selling
Manufacturing, Dl
..
.,
Retail trade, 01
.
Wholesale trade, Dl
. .
Prime contract awards, Defense Department
Prime rate charged by banks
.
Producer prices—See Price indexes.
Producers' durable equipment, nonresidential, GPDI
Production—See Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Productivity
Output per hour, business sector
Output per hour, nonfarm business sector
Profitability, Cl
.
. . .
Profits
Corporate profits after tax
Constant dollars
.
Current dollars
With IVA and CCAdj, constant dollars
With IVA and CCAdj, current dollars
Corporate profits before tax
With IVA and CCAd)
.
With IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income
Manufacturing and trade, Dl .
Manufacturing, Dl
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
.
Profitability, Cl .
.
.
Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income
Ratio, profits with IVA and CCAdj to corporate
domestic income
.
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAd) .
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of
national income

Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index:
Spot market index
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income
Reserves, free
Residential fixed investment, constant dollars

:..

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
description
(*)
21
21

20
10
100
61
970
90

12,23
23
24
24
38
17

66
66
67
67
76
62

12/86
12/86
11/86
11/86
11/86
4/86

23
23
9

320
322

49
49

84,95
84

8/86
8/86

49
49

311
310
26

48
48
29

84
84
70

10/86
10/86
8/86 •

49
38
28

330
333
331
334
335
332
'98

48
48
48
48
48
48
28

85
86
85
86
85
86
69

7/86
7/86
7/86
7/86
7/86
7/86
6/86

50
51
50
51
51
50
51

967
. 23

37
28

79
75
69

1/86
1/86

25
25

98
99

28
13,28

69
69

6/86
,6/86

51
25

19
968
26

13,28
37
29

69
75
70

11/85
7/85 '
8/86

25
25
28

976
978
977
525
109 .

38
38
38
53
35

76
76
76
90
73

12/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
6/85

37
37
37
55
35

88

25

67

10/86

40

370
358
916

50
50
11

.88
88
60

10/86
10/86
1/86

52
52
5

18
16
80
79

28
28
29
29

69
69
69
69

9/86
9/86
9/86
9/86

26
26
26
26

286
287
972
960
15
916
22

45
47
38
37
29
11
29

82
83
76
75
70
60
69

12/86
12/86
12/85
12/85 .
11/85
1/86
9/86

26
26
37
37
27
5
26

81
282

29
45

70
82

10/86
11/86

26
47

283

47

83

.11/86

47

967
23
284

37
28
45

79
75
69
82

1/86
1/86
11/86

25
25
47

285
93
89

47
33
25

83
72
67

11/86
4/85
10/86

47
35
40

Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP..
Residential structures—See Housing,
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars

Salaries—See Compensation,
Sales
Final sales, constant dollars
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars.
Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars... .
Manufacturing and trade sales, Dl . .
Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
Retail sales, constant d o l l a r s . . .
Retail sales, current dollars
Saving
Business saving.
. .
Government surplus or deficit
Gross saving.
. .
. . . .
• Personal saving
Personal saving rate
.
. . .
Selling prices—See Prices, selling
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change.
Shipments of defense products
..
... .
Spot market prices, raw industrials
Components
Diffusion index .
. .
Spot market index
....
State and local government—See Government.
Stock prices—See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Surplus—See Government.
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields...

Current issue
(P^ numbers)
number Charts Tables
Serjes

249

L

22
22

213

40

69
57
56
•973
77
59
54

24
14,22
38
15,27

295
298
290
292
293

Series
description
(*)

11/86

47

59
54

Historical
data
(issue date)

65
65

9/86
9/86

20
20

10/86

22

67
65
65
76
68
65
65

8/86
11/86
10/85
12/85
11/86
9/86
9/86

17
17
17
37
17
20
20

46
46
46
46
46

82
83
82
82
83

12/86
12/86
12/86
12/86
12/86

48
48

99
588

28
13,28
54

69
69
91

6/86
6/86
7/85

51
25
17

967
23

37
28

79
75
69

1/86
1/86

25
25

19
968

13,28
37

69
75

11/85
7/85

25
25

114
115

34
34

72
73

9/85
9/85

35
35

22

22

U
Unemployment
Duration of unemployment, average
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment..
Initial claims for unemployment insurance
Initial claims for unemployment insurance, Dl
Number unemployed
Both sexes 16-19 years of age
. . .
Females 20 years and over
Full-time workers
Males 20 years and over.
Total unemployed
Unemployment rates
15 weeks and over.
Insured unemployment...
Total
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products..
Durable goods industries
.. .
Durable goods industries, change.
United Kingdom—See International comparisons.

91
60
5
962

15,18
16
12,16
36

62
61
61
74

4/86
4/86
12/86
12/86

446
445
447
444
37

51
51
51
51
18,51

89
89
89
89
62,89

4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86

44
45
43

18
18
18

62
62
62

4/86
4/86
4/86

561
96
25

54
21
21

91
64
64

7/85
6/85
6/85

Velocity of money
GNP to money supply Ml, ratio
Personal income to money supply M2, ratio
Vendor performance, slower deliveries

107
31
108
31
32 12,21

71
71
64

8/86
9/86
1/86

W
Wages and salaries—See Compensation.
West Germany—See International comparisons.
Wholesale (producer) prices—See Price indexes.
Workweek, manufacturing
Average weekly hours
Components
Diffusion index

1

12,16

%V

'36'

61
77
74

30
30
17

NOTE: CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GNP, gross national product; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; IVA, inventory valuation adjustment.
* The number shown is the page of the Handbook of Cyclical indicators (1984) on which the series description appears.




113

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Series are listed below according to the sections of this
report in which they appear. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect relationships or
order among the series. "M" following a series title
indicates monthly data; "Q" indicates quarterly data.
Data apply to the whole period except when indicated by
"EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter).
To save space, the commonly used sources listed below
are referred to by number;
Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Following the source for each series is an indication of
the pages on which that series appears. The "Series
Finding Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers
for each series.

I-A. Composite Indexes
910. Composite index of twelve leading indicators
(includes series lt 5r 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99,
106,111) (M).-Sourcel
(10,39,60)
914. Composite index of capital investment commitments
(includes series 12, 20, 29) (M).-Source 1 (11,60)

10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, and McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis
(23,66)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).—The Conference
Board
(24,66)
12. Index of net business formation (M).—Source 1;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysts and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(12,23,65)

33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies (M).—
Sources 1; 4; American Council of Life Insurance;
Federal National Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; and Federal Home
Loan Bank Board; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(32,71)
34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(29,70)
35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(29,70)

13. Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(23,65)

36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on
hand and on order in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1
and 2
(13,26,68)

14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).—Dun
& Bradstreet, Inc.
(33,72)

37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3
(18,51,62,89)

15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations (Q).—Source 2 and Federal Trade
Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(29,70)

38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials
and supplies on hand and on order, book value
(M).-Source 2
(26,68)

16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(28,69)

39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent
30 days and over (EOM).—American Bankers
Association
(33,72)

18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars (Q).Source 1
(28,69)

40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goods-

19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).Standard & Poor's Corporation
(13,28,59,69,96)

41, Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (M).—Source
42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activi-

917, Composite index of money and financial flows
(includes series 104, 106, 111) (M).-Source
1
(11,60)

20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(12,23,66)

920, Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators (includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—
Source 3
(16,61)

930, Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes
series 62, 77, 91, 95t 101, 109) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)

22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to total
corporate domestic income (Q).—Source 1 (29,69)

915. Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 99) (M).-Source
1
(11,60)
916, Composite index of profitability (includes series
19,26,80) (M).-Soureel
(11,60)

940, Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to
lagging composite index (series 930) (M).—Source
1
(11,60)

I-B. Cyclical Indicators
1, Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—Source 3
(12,16,61,77)
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs (M),—U.S. Department
of Labor, Employment and Training Administration;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(12,16,61)

23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials (M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau,
Inc. (Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981,
this series may not be reproduced without written
permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.)
(28,69,79)
24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Source 2
(23,66)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable
goods industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64)
26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost,
nonfarm business sector (Q),—Sources 1 and 3
(29,70)

6. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, durable
goods industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64,77)

27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).-Sources 1
and 2
(23,66)

7. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods industries (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (21,64)

28. New private housing units started (M).—Source
2
(25,67)

8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (M).—Sources
1 and 2
(12,21,64)

29. Index of new private housing units authorized by
local building permits (M).—Source 2
(13,25,67)

9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings, floor space (M).-McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (Used by
permission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
(23,66)

114



30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Q).Source 1
(26,42,68,81)
31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories,
book value (M).—Sources 1 and 2
(26,68)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (M).—Purchasing Management Association of Chicago
(12,21,64)

producing industries (M).-Source 3
3

(17,62)
(14,17,62)

ties (M).-Source 3

(17,62)

43,

Unemployment rate (M).—Source 3

(18,62)

44.

Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks
and over (M).-Source 3
(18,62)

45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).-U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration
(18,62)
46, Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers
(M).—The Conference Board
(16,61)
47. Index of industrial production (M).—Source 4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
48, Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
(M).-Source3
(17,39,61)
49, Value of goods output in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(20,63)
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982
dollars (M).-Source 1
(14,19,39,63)
52. Personal income in 1982 dollars (M).—Source 1
(19,63)
53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing, and construction (M)-Source 1 (19,63)
54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).—Source
2

(22,65)

55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles
(Q).-Source 1
(22,65)
56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars
(M).-Sourcesland2
(22,65)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars
(M).-Sources land 2
(14,22,65)
58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M).—University
of Michigan, Survey Research Center
(22,65)
59, Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1
and 2
(22,65)

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to
number of persons unemployed (M).—Sources 1,
3, and The Conference Board
(16,61)

88. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1982 dollars, producers' durable equipment
(Q).Source 1
(25,67)

61. New plant and equipment expenditures by business
in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(24,67)

89. Gross private residential fixed investment in 1982
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)

62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (M).-Sources land 4
(15,30,70)

90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (M).—Sources 1 and 3
(17,62)
' Average duration of unemployment in weeks (M).—
Source 3
(15,18,62)

63. Index of unit labor cost, business sector (Q).—Source
3
(30,70)

91

64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)

93

65. Manufacturers1 inventories, finished goods, book
value (EOM).-Source 2
(27,68)
66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (EOM).—
Source 4
(35,73)
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).—Source

4

(33,72)
- Free reserves (M).-Source 4
94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
(M).-Source 4
(33,72)
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to
personal income (M).—Sources 1 and 4
(15,35,73)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Source 2
(21,64)

71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, book value
(EOM).-Sourcesland2
(27,68)
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4 and The Federal
Reserve Bank of New York
(35,73)
73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures (M).-Source4
(20,63)
74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures (M).-Source 4
(20,63)
75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods
(M).-Source4
(22,65)
76. Index of industrial production, business equipment
(M).-Source4
(24,67)
77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in
1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(15,27,68)

964. Diffusion index of manufacturers' new orders, 34-35
durable goods industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2
(37,75,77)

3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.

(13,28,69)

100. New plant and equipment expenditures by business
in 1982 dollars (Q).-Sou r e e l
(24,67)
- Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982
dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4, and The Federal Reserve
Bank of New York
(15,35,73)

101

102. Change in money supply M2 (M)-Source 4

(31,71)

104. Change in total liquid assets (M).—Sources 1 and
4

(31,71)

105. Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1
and 4

(31,71)

106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (M).—Sources 1
and 4

(13,31,71)

107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml
(Q).-Sourcesland4

(31,71)

108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M).—
Sources land 4

(31,71)

109. Average prime rate charged by banks (M).—Source
110

79. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(29,69)

m. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding
(M).—Sources 1, 4, Federal Home Loan Bank Board,
and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (13,32,72)

80. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in 1982
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(29,69)

112. Net change in business loans (M).—Sources 1, 4,
and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (32,71)
113. Net change in consumer installment credit (M).—
Source 4
(32,72)
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury
bills (M).-Source 4
(34,72)

82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (M).—
Source 4
(20,64)
84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (M).—Source
4
(20,64)
85. Change in money supply Ml (M).-Source 4

(31,71)

86. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)
87. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1982 dollars, structures (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)




961. Diffusion index of average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing
industries (M).-Sources 1 and 3
(36,74,77)

99. Change in sensitive materials prices (M).—Sources 1,

78. Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies
on hand and on order, book value (EOM).—Source
2
(27,68)

81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with
inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate domestic income (Q).—
Source 1
(29,70)

960. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing—about
600 companies (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used
by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(35,75)

963. Diffusion index of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 172-186 industries (M).—Source
3
(36,74)

turing corporations (EOQ).—The Conference Board

(24,67)

952. Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components
(M).-Sourcel
(36,74)

(24,66)

97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufac-

2

951. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator
components (M).—Source 1
(36,74)

98. Percent change in producer prices for 28 sensitive
crude and intermediate materials (M).—Sources 1
and 3
(28,69)

(35,73)

70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1982 dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2
(27,68)

950. Diffusion index of twelve leading indicator components (M).-Source 1
(36,74)

962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, 51 areas (M).—Source
1 and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and
Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(36,74)

68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross
domestic product in 1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations (Q).-Source 1
(30,70)
69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (M).—Source

I-C. Diffusion Indexes

4

U5

(35,73)

Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
credit markets (Q).-Source 4
(32,72)

Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).—U.S. Department of the Treasury
(34,73)

ue. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(M).—Citibank and U.S. Department of the Treasury
(34,73)
Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The
' Bond Buyer
(34,73)
^g Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).—
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development,
Federal Housing Administration
(34,73)

117

119. Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4

(34,72)

965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations in 1982 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries (Q) .-The Conference Board
(37 t 75)
966. Diffusion index of industrial production, 24 industries (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(37,75,78)
967. Diffusion index of spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials (M).—Sources 1, 3t and Commodity
Research Bureau, Inc.
(37,75,79)
968. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks,
42-82 industries (M).—Source 1 and Standard &
Poor's Corporation
(37,75)
970. Diffusion index of expenditures for new plant and
equipment by U.S. nonfarm business, 22 industries
(Q).-Sourcel
(38,76)
971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about
600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)
972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q),—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This
series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This
series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting
(Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting
(Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)

115

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
976, Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing—
about 600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(38,76)
977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale tradeabout 400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(38,76)

243. Gross private domestic fixed investment in 1982
dollars (Q).-Source 1

(42,81)

245. Change in business inventories in current dollars

(Q).-Sourcel

(42,81)

247. Change in business inventories as a percent of
gross national product (Q).—Source 1

(47,83)

248. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment as a
percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)

978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade-about
400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)

249. Gross private residential fixed investment as a

II-A. National Income and Product

251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of

250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars
(Q).-Sourcel
gross national product (Q).—Source 1

30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Q)-

Source 1

percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)

(26,42,68,81)

(44,82)
(47,83)

252. Exports of goods and services in current dollars

(Q).-Sourcel

(44,82)

50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)

253. Imports of goods and services in current dollars

64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).—Source 1
(30,47,70,83)

255. Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars

200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).—
Sou reel
(40,80)

256. Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars

213. Final sales in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1

257. Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars

(40,80)

(Q).-Sourcel

(Q).-Source 1
(Q).-Source 1

(Q).-Sourcel

(44,82)

(44,82)
(44,82)

(44,82)

217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Sourcesl and 2
(40,80)

260. Government purchases of goods and services in

220. National income in current dollars (Q).—Source
1
(45,82)

261. Government purchases of goods and services in

223. Personal income in current dollars (M).—Source

1

current dollars (Q).-Source 1
1982 dollars (Q).-Sou reel

(43,81)
(43,81)

(40,63)

262. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser-

224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(40,80)

263. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser-

vices in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
vices in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1

(43,81)
(43,81)

225. Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(40,80)

265. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser-

227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q).-Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)

vices as a percent of gross national product (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)

230. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)

266. State and local government purchases of goods and

231. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars

267. State and local government purchases of goods and

(Q).-Source 1

(41,80)

232. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, durable goods (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
233. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, durable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,80)
235. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
236. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, nondurable goods (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
237. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, services (Q).—Source 1
(41,81)

services in current dollars (Q).—Source 1

(43,81)

242. Gross private domestic fixed investment in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)

116




(46,82)

293. Personal saving rate (Q).-Source 1

(46,83)

295. Business saving (Q).-Source 1

(46,82)

298. Government surplus or deficit (Q).-Source 1

(46,83)
II-B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
310. Implicit price deflator for gross national product
(Q).-Source 1
(48,84)
311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product (Q).—Source 1
(48,84)
320. Consumer price index for all urban consumers
(M).-Source 3
(49,59,84,95)
322. Consumer price index for all urban consumers,
food (M).-Source3
(49,84)
330. Producer price index, all commodities (M).—Source
3
(48,85)
331. Producer price index, crude materials for further
processing (M).—Source 3
(48,85)
332. Producer price index, intermediate materials, supplies, and components (M).-Source 3
(48,86)
333. Producer price index, capital equipment (M).—
Sources
(48,86)
334. Producer price index, finished consumer goods
(M).-Source 3
(48,86)
335. Producer price index, industrial commodities
(M).-Source3
(48,85)
340. Index of average hourly earnings of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural
payrolls (M).-Source 3
(49,87)
341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production
or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (M).-Source 3
(49,87)
345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3
(49,87)

348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average
first year changes (Q).—Source 3
(50,88)

280. Compensation of employees (Q).—Source 1 (45,82)
282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and

349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average
changes over life of contract (Q).—Source 3 (50,88)

capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source
1
(45,82)

283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments as a percent of
national income (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)

284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment (Q).-Soureel

(45,82)

adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)

(42,81)

292. Personal saving (Q).-Source 1

services as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Sourcel
(47,83)

285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption

(Q).-Sourcel

(46,82)

268. State and local government purchases of goods and

(43,81)

239. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, services (Q).—Source 1
(41,81)

241. Gross private domestic investment in 1982 dollars

290. Gross saving (Q).-Source 1

346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source
3
(49,88)

services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1

238. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, nondurable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,81)

240. Gross private domestic investment in current dollars (Q).-Sourcel
(42,81)

289. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)

286. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—
Source 1
(45,82)

287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments as a
percent of national income (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)

288. Net interest (Q).-Source 1

(45,82)

358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3
(49,88)
370. Index of output per hour, all persons, business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,88)

II-C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3

(18,51,62,89)
441. Civilian labor force (M).-Source 3

(51,89)

442. Civilian employment (M).-Source 3

(51,89)

444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over
(M).-Source3
(51,89)
445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over
(M).-Source3
(51,89)

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of
age (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
447. Number unemployed, full-time workers (M).—
Source3
(51,89)
448. Number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (M).-Source3
(51,89)
451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20
years and over (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20
years and over (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes
16-19 years of age (M)-Source 3
(51,89)

II-D. Government Activities
500. Federal Government surplus or deficit (Q).-Source
1
(52,90)
501. Federal Government receipts (Q).—Source 1

570. Employment, defense products industries (M).—
Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(55,91)
577. Defense Department military personnel on active
duty (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office
of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports
(55,91)
578. Defense Department civilian personnel, direct Nre employment (EOM).-US. Department of Defense, Office
of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller),
Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for
Information Operations and Reports
(55,91)
580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions
and military assistance (M).—U.S. Department of
Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense
(Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(54,91)

47. United States, index of industrial production (M)Source 4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
320. United States, consumer price index for all urban
consumers (M).-Source 3
(49,59,84,95)
721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European countries, index of industrial
production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(58,94)
722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production
(M).-Central Statistical Office (London)
(58,94)
723. Canada, index of industrial production (M).Statistics Canada (Ottawa)
(58,94)
725. West Germany, index of industrial production (M)Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(58,94)
726. France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(58,94)

588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (M).—
Source 2
(54,91)

502. Federal Government expenditures (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)

727. Italy, index of industrial production (M).-lstituto
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(58,94)

II-E. U.S. International Transactions

510. State and local government surplus or deficit (Q).Source 1
(52,90)

728. Japan, index of industrial production (M).-Ministry
of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(58,94)

602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments (M).—
Source 2
(56,92)

511.

604. Exports of domestic agricultural products (M)Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(56,92)

(52,90)

State and local government receipts (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)

512. State and local government expenditures (Q).—
Source 1
(52,90)
517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred
(M).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the
Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
525. Defense Department prime contract awards for work
performed in the United States (M).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of
Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters
Services, Directorate for Information Operations
and Reports; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations
outstanding (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense,
Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(53,90)
548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products (M)Source 2
(53,90)
557. Index of industrial production, defense and space
equipment (M).-Source 4
(54,91)
559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products, book
value(EOM).-Source2
(54,91)
561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products
(EOM).-Source2
(54,91)
564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)
565. National defense purchases as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)




606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).—Source
2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
612. General imports (M).-Source 2

(56,92)

614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
(M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(56,92)
616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).-Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(56,92)
618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Sourcel
(57,93)
620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Sourcel
(57,93)
622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).—Source 1

(57,93)
651.

Income on U.S. investment abroad (Q).—Source
1
(57,93)

652. Income on foreign investment in the United States
(Q).-Sourcel
(57,93)
667. Balance on goods and services (Q).—Source 1

(57,93)
668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under U.S. military grants (Q) .-Source 1
(57,93)
669. Imports of goods and services (Q).—Source 1

(57,93)

II-F. International Comparisons
19. united States, index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (M).—Standard & Poor's Corporation

(13,28,59,69,96)

732. United Kingdom, consumer price index (M).—
Department of Employment (London); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(59,95)
733. Canada, consumer price index (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted
by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
735. West Germany, consumer price index
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden);
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of
ic Analysis

(M).—
percent
Econom(59,95)

736. France, consumer price index (M).-lnstitut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris);
percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(59,95)
737. Italy, consumer price index (M).—Istituto Centrale di
Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
738. Japan, consumer price index (M).—Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(59,95)
742. united Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-Central
Statistical Office (London)
(59,96)
743. Canada, index of stock prices (M).-Toronto Stock
Exchange (Toronto)
(59,96)
745. West Germany, index of stock prices (M).Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(59,96)
746. France, index of stock prices (M).-lnstitut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)

(59,96)
747. Italy, index of stock prices (M).-Banca d'ltalia
(Rome)
(59,96)
748. Japan, index of stock prices (M).—Bank of Japan
(Tokyo)
(59,96)

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