Full text of Business Conditions Digest : December 1985
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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary
D. Bruce Merrifield, Acting Under Secretary for Economic Affairs
BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Allan H. Young, Director
Carol S. Carson, Deputy Director
Edward K. Smith, Associate Director for
National Analysis and Projections
FeliksTamm, Editor
This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic
Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are—
Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review
Brian D. Kajutti—Composite indexes
Betty F. Tun stall—Data collection and compilation (Phone: 202-523-0541)
The cooperation of Government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully
acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and
sources at the back of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consisting
of the following persons:
Ronald E. Kutscher, Acting Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of
Labor
Ahmad Al-Samarrie, Office of Management and Budget
Lincoln F. Anderson, Council of Economic Advisers
John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury
Edward K. Smith, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
Charles A. Waite, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Helmut F. Wendel, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
ABOUT THIS REPORT
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides
a monthly look at many of the economic time
series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters.
The original BCD, which began publication
in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions
and prospects. The report's contents were based
largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident,
and lagging indicators maintained by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its
usefulness*to analysts using other approaches to
business conditions analysis. Principal additions
to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on
surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's
present title was adopted.
The dominant feature of the current BCD is
the cyclical indicators section, in which each
business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way
timing classification according to its behavior at
peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is
supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of
presentation is explained in the introductory text
which begins on page 1.
Annual subscription price: $44.00 domestic,
$55.00 foreign. Single copy price: $4.00 domestic, $5.00 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are
available on request. Address correspondence
Most of the data contained in this report
also are published by their source agencies. A
series finding guide and a complete list of series
titles and sources can be found at the back of the
report.
Cyclical Indicators are economic time series
which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process
and by their average timing at business cycle
peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks
and troughs combined. These indicators have
been selected primarily on the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but they also have proven
useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate
economic activity.
Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business
conditions and prospects. They include selected
components of the national income and product
accounts; measures of prices, wages, and
productivity; measures of the labor force,
employment, and unemployment; economic
data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with
major foreign countries.
concerning subscriptions to Superintendent of
Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402. Make checks payable
to Superintendent of Documents.
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
New Features and Changes for This Issue
BCII
iii
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Part I. Cyclical Indicators
Part II. Other Important Economic Measures
How To Read Charts
How To Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes
1
1
1
1
4
5
5
6
DECEMBER 1985
Data Through November
Volume 25, Number 12
PART I.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Al
A2
A3
LA4J
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND
THEIR COMPONENTS
Composite indexes
Leading Index Components
Coincident Index Components
Lagging Index Components
.
Chart
10
12
14
15
Table
60
—
—
—
16
19
21
23
26
28
31
61
63
64
65
68
69
71
36
—
39
74
77
—
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
R1
B2
B3
B4
B5
Employment and Unemployment
Production and Income
Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
.
Money and Credit
. . ..
DIFFUSION INDEXES
AND RATES OF CHANGE
Cl
C2
_C3
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
Rates of Change
The Secretary of Commerce has determined
that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business
required by law of this Department. Use of funds
for printing this periodical has been approved
by the Director of the Office of Management
and Budget through September 30, 1986.
BCII
PART II.
OTHER IMPORTANT
ECONOMIC MEASURES
Al
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
NATIONAL INCOME
AND PRODUCT
GNP and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Foreign Trade
National Income and Its Components
Saving
Shares of GNP and National Income
Bl
B2
PRICES, WAGES,
AND PRODUCTIVITY
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity
Chart
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
Table
80
80
81
81
82
82
82
83
48
49
84
87
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
51
89
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and Expenditures
Defense Indicators
52
53
90
90
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Merchandise Trade
Goods and Services Movements
56
57
92
93
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Industrial Production
Consumer Prices
Stock Prices
58
59
59
94
95
96
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT,
AND UNEMPLOYMENT
PART III. APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators)
QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators)
B. Current Adjustment Factors
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
97
98
D. Descriptions and Sources Of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide")
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (July 1985 issue)
F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators (August 1985 issue)
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series
105
110
U4
Readers are invited to submit comments and
suggestions concerning this publication.
Address them to Feliks Tamm, Chief, Statistical
Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent find-
BCD DATA ON DISKETTE
Data for most series shown regularly in BCD now
available on diskette for $240 per year (12 updates).
For more information, write to the Bureau of Economic
Analysis (BE-60), U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230.
ings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
Changes in this issue are as follows:
data, additions or
1. The series based on data from the national income
and product accounts (NIPA) have been revised by the source
agency. These revisions reflect a comprehensive (benchmark)
revision; incorporation of new and revised source data;
changes in definitions and classifications; and statistical
changes, including improved estimation procedures and a shift
in the base year (from 1972 to 1982) for the constant-dollar
estimates and the associated price indexes and implicit price
deflators. All series are revised for the period 1973 to
date; many are revised for earlier years as well.
Revised data are shown in this issue for series 16, 18,
22, 30, 34, 35, 49-53, 55, 64, 68, 70, 79-81, 86-89, 95, 107,
108, and 223 in section I-B; all series in section II-A;
series 310 and 311 in section II-B; and series 500-502, 510512, 564, and 565 in section II-D.
Revised data for other series affected by these revisions
(series 20, 27, 36, 57, 59, 62, 77, and the inventory-sales
ratios shown in appendix G) will be published in a subsequent
issue.
Further information concerning these revisions may be
obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis, National Income and Wealth Division.
(Continued on page iv.)
The January issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled
for release on February 4.
iti
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of
indexes, etc,
2. The series on employee hours in nonagricultural establishments (series 48)
has been revised by the source agency for the period 1978 to date. This revision
reflects the adoption of a new benchmark (March 1984) for the period April 1983 to
date and the application of new seasonal adjustment factors for 1978 to date.
Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the U.S.
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Productivity and Technology, Division of Productivity Research.
3. The quarterly series based wholly or in part on merchandise exports and
imports (series 618, 620, 622, and 667-669) have been revised by the source agency
for the period 1983 to date. These revisions reflect the recent change by the
Census Bureau (the compiler of the basic data) in the "statistical month" of the
data. The statistical month formerly was the month in which documents were processed by the Census Bureau. It now is the month in which imports were released
from Customs and the month in which exports actually were shipped.
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S.
Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Balance of Payments Division,
4. Appendix C contains historical data for series 12-14, 67, 525, 543, 580,
602, 604, 606, 612, 614, 616, 960, and 971-978.
5. Appendix G contains cyclical comparisons for series 45, 47, 48, 82, 910,
and 920.
NEW SERVICE AVAILABLE
A recorded message that provides current data for the
composite indexes of leading, coincident, and lagging
indicators is now in operation. This 4-minute recording, which will be updated monthly, can be heard by
telephoning 202-898-2450.
IV
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
adjustment is occasionally required for holidays
Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional
This report is organized into two major parts. adjustment is sometimes necessary for series
Business cycles have been defined as sequences
Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time which contain considerable variation due to the
of
expansion and contraction in various economic
number
of
working
or
trading
days
in
each
month,
series which have been found to conform well to
broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of As used in this report, the term "seasonal processes that show up as major fluctuations in ageconomic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday gregate economic activity-that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment,
individual indicators, the rest are related analytical adjustments where they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in income, and trade.. While recurrent and pervasive,
measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes,
and rates of change. Part II, Other Important seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these business cycles of historical experience have been
Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which are the official figures released by the source definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in
are valuable to business analysts and forecasters agencies. However, for the special purposes of this duration and intensity, reflecting changes in
but which do not conform well enough to business report, a number of series not ordinarily published economic systems, conditions, policies, and
cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a outside disturbances.
One of the techniques developed in business
few exceptions: Four series which are included in seasonally adjusted basis.
cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzpart I are also shown in part II to complete the
ing current economic conditions and prospects is
systematic presentation of certain sets of data, MCD Moving Averages
the cyclical indicators approach. This approach
such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest
Month-to-month changes in a series are often identifies certain economic time series as tending
section of part II consists of quarterly series from
the national income and product accounts; other dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad
sections relate to prices, labor force, government cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appro- movements in aggregate economic activity. Such
and defense-related activities, and international priate span over which to observe cyclical indicators have been selected and analyzed by
movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.) NBER in a series of studies published between
transactions and comparisons.
It is the smallest span of months for which the 1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new
The two parts are further divided into sections average change in the cyclical factor is greater than
comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was
(see table of contents), and each of these sections that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a
is described briefly in this introduction. Data are series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. (BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research
begin with 1959, but those for the composite MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of staff. The present format and content of part I of
indexes and their components (part I, section A) the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the BCD are based on the results of that study.
begin with 1948, and a few charts use a two-panel same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a
format which covers only the period since 1974. 5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5 Section A. Composite Indexes and
Except for section F in part II, charts contain will show its cyclical movements about as clearly Their Components
shading which indicates periods of recession in as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an
All cyclical indicators have been evaluated acgeneral business activity. The tables contain data MCD of 1.
cording
to six major characteristics: Economic
for only the last few years. The historical data for
significance,
statistical adequacy, consistency of
The
charts
in
this
report
generally
include
the various time series are contained in the 1984
centered MCD moving averages for those series timing at business cycle peaks and troughs,
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally conformity to business expansions and
In addition to the charts and tables described
adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability
above, each issue contains a summary table which
variation about the moving averages and to provide (currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme
shows the current behavior of many of the series.
was developed and used to assess each series by all
observations for the most recent months.
Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors,
of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and
meavSures of variability, specific cycle turning
November 1975 issues of BCD.)
The resulting
Reference Turning Dates
dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other
scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series
information of analytical interest. An index appears
The historical business cycle turning dates used during the period 1947-70. This analysis produced
at the back of each issue. It should be noted that in this report are those designated by the National a new list of indicators classified by economic
the series numbers used are for identification Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They process and typical timing at business cycle peaks
purposes only and do not reflect precise mark the approximate dates when, according to and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below
relationships or order. However, all series NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its relating to section B.)
considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
This information, particularly the scores relating
th« range 1 to 199.
practice, neither new reference turning dates nor to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the
the shading for recessions will be entered on the selection of series to be included in the composite
charts until after both the new reference peak and indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring
Seasonal Adjustments
the new reference trough bounding the shaded area series from many different economic-process
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations have been designated.
groups and combine those with similar timing
are often necessary to bring out the underlying
The historical reference turning dates are subject behavior, using their overall performance scores as
trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for
to occasional reviews by NBER and may be changed weights. Because they use series of historically
the effects of repetitive intrayear variations as a result of revisions in important economic tested usefulness and given timing characteristics
resulting primarily from normal differences in
time series. The dates shown in this publication (for example, leading at both peaks and troughs),
weather conditions and from various institutional
for the 1948-70 time period are those determined with diversified economic coverage and a minimum
arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays
by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has designated of duplication, composite indexes give more
are usually accounted for by the seasonal turning points for recessions in 1973-75, 1980, and reliable signals over time than do any of the
adjustment process; however, a separate holiday
individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the
1981-82.
1
Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks
\ .
Economic
\lProcess
CyclicalV
Timing
1.
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)
II.
PRODUCTION
AND INCOME
(10 series)
III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE, ORDERS,
AND DELIVERIES
(13 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(3 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 se-ies)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 seres)
Capacity utilization
(2 series)
Orders and deliveries
(6 series)
Consumption and
trade (2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
output and income
(4 series)
industrial
production
(4 series)
Consumption and
trade (4 series)
\
LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(61 series)
ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT (C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)
LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(19 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(2 series;
TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED (U)
(8 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)
IV.
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(18 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business investment
commitments
(5 series)
Residential
construction
: (3 series)
VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(18 series)
VII.
MONEY AND
CREDIT
(28 series)
Inventory
investment
(4 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (2 series)
Profits and profit
margins (7 series)
Cash flows (2 series)
Money (5 m m )
Credit ftows
(5 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(2 series)
Interest rates
(1 series)
Business investment
commitments
(1 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(5 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(1 series)
Consumption and
trade (1 series)
V.
INVENTORIES
AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
Velocity of money
(2 series)
Interest rates
{2 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(4 series)
Business investment
commitments
(1 series)
Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)
interest rates
(4 series)
Outstanding debt
(4 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (1 series)
Profits and profit
margins ( I series)
Interest rates
(1 series)
VII.
MONEY AND
CREDIT
(28 series)
B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs
^ v
\ .
Economic
Process
Cyclical^.
Timing
N.
1.
II.
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)
PRODUCTION
AND INCOME
(10 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(1 series)
Marginal employmer t
adjustments
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(4 series)
III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE, ORDERS,
AND DELIVERIES
(13 series)
IV.
V.
VI.
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(18 series)
INVENTORIES
AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(18 series)
industrial
production
(1 series)
Orders and deliveries
(5 series)
Consumption and
trade (4 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business investment
commitments
(4 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)
Inventory
investment
(4 series)
Stock prices
U wits)
Comprehensive
output and income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(3 series)
Capacity utilization
(2 series)
Consumption and
trade (3 series)
Business investment
commitments
(1 series)
Orders and deliveries
(1 series)
Business investment
commitments
(2 Series)
Business investment
expenditures
LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(47 series)
ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT (C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)
LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(40 series^
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(5 series)
TIM1MO
I Imliio
UNCLASSIFIED (U)
(1 series)
(6 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(5 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (3 series)
Profits and profit
margins (6 series)
Cash flows (2 series)
Money (4 $&m)
Credit flows
(5 sems)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Profits and profit
margins (2 series)
Money (1 series)
Velocity of money
{1 series)
Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)
Velocity of money
(1 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Interest rates
(8 series)
Outstanding debt
(4 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
independent measurement error and other "noise"
in the included series are smoothed out in the
index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly
series that are acceptable in terms of relatively
prompt availability and reasonable accuracy.
The main composite indexes are distinguished by
their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of
leading indicators, series which historically reached
their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the
corresponding business cycle turns. There is an
index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting
of series which historically reached their turning
points at about the same time as the general
economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which
includes series that typically reached their peaks
and troughs later than the corresponding business
cycle turns.
The leading index contains series with long as
well as short leads, but each series leads on the
average over time and shows a frequency of leads
at the individual turns exceeding that attributable
to chance, given the historical distribution of
cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to
the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948,
leads were generally more frequent and longer at
peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags
were generally more frequent and longer at troughs
than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and
classifying the indicators takes into account these
well-established differences in timing.
Consequently, rough coincidences include short
leads (») and lags ( + ) as well as exact
coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is
from -3 through + 1 at peaks and from -1 through
+ 3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and
plus denotes lags in months.)
For purposes of constructing a composite index,
each component series is standardized: The monthto-month percent changes in a given series are
divided by the long-run average (without regard to
sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile
series are prevented from dominating the index.
The coincident index is calculated so that its longterm trend (since 1948) equals the average of the
trends of its four components. This trend, which is
similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be
viewed as a linear approximation to the secular
movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate
economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagging indicators have been adjusted so that both
their trends and their average month-to-month
percent changes (without regard to sign) are approximately equal to those of the coincident index.
(For a more detailed description of the method of
constructing the composite indexes, see the 1984
Handbook of Cyclical
Indicators)
In addition to these principal composite indexes,
differentiated according to cyclical timing, there
are five indexes based on leading indicators which
have been grouped by economic process. Taken
together, these additional indexes include all 12
component series of the overall leading index, plus
a few related series. Also shown in this section is
the ratio of the index of roughly coincident
indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a
series known to have a useful pattern of early
cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of
the composite indexes show the length, in'months,
of leads (-) and lags ( + ) at each of the reference
turning dates covered.
The next set of data consists of series included
in the principal composite indexes. These are the
12 components of the leading index, the 4
Components of the coincident index, and the 6
components of the lagging index. Following the title
of each series, its typical timing is identified by
three letter symbols in a small box. The first of
these letters refers to the timing of the given
indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its
timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to
its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs
combined. H L" denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a
tendency to roughly coincide with the business
cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency
to lag. Since these series have been selected for the
consistency of their timing at both peaks and
troughs, all components of the leading index are
denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident
index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging
index "LgTLg,Lg." It should be remembered that
these classifications are based on limited evidence,
namely the performance of the indicators during
the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which
included five peaks and five troughs. While the
timing classifications are expected to agree with
the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will
not necessarily hold invariably in every instance.
The timing of the series in the period since 1970
can be determined by inspection of the charts,
where the recessions of 1973-75, 1980, and
1981-82 are shaded according to the dates of
the NBER reference cycle chronology.
Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
This section covers 111 individual time series,
including the 22 indicators used in the
construction of the composite indexes. The peak
and trough timing classifications are shown on the
charts in the same manner as described above, but
this section includes series with different timing at
peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the
timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified
as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic
measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series
are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at
turning points of the given type. Eight series are
unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 19
series at all turns (of the 19, 15 have definite but
different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series
that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs
is included in the list of cyclical indicators.
The classification scheme which groups the
indicators of this section by economic process and
cyclical timing is summarized in the two
tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is
based on the observed behavior of the series at five
business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53,
August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business
cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April f58,
February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation
distinguishes seven major economic processes and
four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells
identify subgroups of the given economic process
with the given timing characteristic. The number of
series in each such group is given in parentheses
following the title. Complete information on how
individual indicators are classified by timing at
peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected
measures and scores, is provided in the 1984
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change
Many series in this report are aggregates
compiled from numerous components. How the
individual components of an aggregate move over a
given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index
which indicates the percentage of components that
are rising (with half of the unchanged components
considered rising). Cyclical changes in these
diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the
corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes
are highly erratic, they are computed from changes
measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter)
spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans.
Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes
are shown for the component series included in
each of the three composite indexes and for the
components of some of the aggregate series shown
in section B.
Diffusion measures can be derived not only from
actual data but also from surveys of anticipations
or intentions. Indexes based on responses of
business executives about their plans and
expectations for several operating variables are
presented, along with the corresponding indexes
based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion
series.
This section also records rates of change for the
three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and
lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate
economic activity: GNP in constant dollars
(quarterly), industrial production, employee hours
in nonagricultural establishments, and personal
income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of
change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for
1-quarter spans.
Although movements in diffusion indexes and in
rates of change for the same aggregates are
generally positively correlated, these two measures
present information about two related but distinct
aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes
measure the prevailing direction or scope of
change, while rates of change measure the degree
as well as the overall direction. As is the case for
diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates
of change tend to lead those of the corresponding
indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead
at the business cycle turns as well.
Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES
This part is divided mto six sections which cover
a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series
measuring various aspects of economic activity.
Some of these series are very comprehensive,
pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others
have to do with particular sectors or markets, and
still others relate to U.S. international transactions
or to selected foreign countries. The represented
variables include incomes, outputs, and
expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity;
labor resources; government receipts,
expenditures, and defense-related activities; exports and imports; and selected indicators for a few
key foreign countries.
Section A. National Income and Product
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the personal, business,
foreign, and government sectors of the economy.
Section Al shows the gross national product,
final sales, and personal and disposable personal
income. The four major components of the gross
national product—personal consumption
expenditures, gross private domestic investment,
government purchases of goods and services, and
net exports of goods and services—are presented in
sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in
section A are presented in current as well as
constant dollars. There are also a few per capita
series. The national income and product accounts,
briefly defined below, are described more fully in
the Survey of Current Business, Part I,
January 1976.
Gross national product (GNP) is the market
value of final goods and services produced by the
labor and property supplied by residents of the
United States, before deduction of allowances for
the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the
most comprehensive measure of aggregate
economic output. Final sales is GIMP less change in
business inventories.
Personal income is the income received by
persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated
businesses, nonprofit institutions;, private trust
funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from
all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary
disbursements, other labor income, proprietors'
income, rental income of persons, dividends,
personal interest income, and transfer payments,
less personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving. It consists
of personal income less personal taxes and nontax
payments to government.
Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is
goods and services purchased by individuals,
operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and
the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings,
and financial services received in kind by individuals. Net purchases of used goods are also included.
4
Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and
capital goods purchased by private business and Unemployment
nonprofit institutions and the value of the change
This section contains measures of the civilian
in the physical volume of inventories held by
private business. The former include all private labor force and its major components: Total
purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for numbers of employed and unemployed persons.
tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used The number of unemployed is subdivided into
selected categories defined by sex, age, and class
goods are also included.
Government purchases of goods and services of worker. Also included are data on participation
(A4) is the compensation of government employees rates for a few principal segments of the labor
and purchases from business and from abroad. It force.
excludes transfer payments, interest paid by
Section D. Government Activities
government, and subsidies. It includes gross
investment by government enterprises but excludes
Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surtheir current outlays. It includes net purchases of plus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels;
used goods and excludes sales and purchases of (1) Federal Government and (2) State and local
land and financial assets.
government. Also shown is a selection of series
Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports from the discontinued Defense
Indicators,
less imports of goods and services. Exports are part These series measure defense activities which
of the national production; imports are not, but are influence short-term changes in the national
included in the components of GNP and are economy. Included are series relating to
therefore deducted. More detail on U.S. obligations, contracts, orders, production,
international transactions is provided in section E. shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment.
National income (A6) is the incomes that These series are grouped according to the time at
originate in the production of goods and services which the activities they measure occur in the
attributable to labor and property supplied by defense order-production-delivery process. Series
residents of the United States. Thus, it measures measuring activities which usually precede prothe factor costs of the goods and services pro- duction, such as contract awards and new orders,
duced. It consists of the compensation of are classified as "advance measures of defense
employees, proprietors' income, rental income of activity." Series measuring activities which tend to
persons, corporate profits, and net interest.
coincide with production, such as employment, and
Saving (A7) is the difference between income activities which usually follow production, such as
and expenditures during an accounting period. shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final
Total gross saving includes personal saving, measures of defense activity."
business saving (mainly undistributed corporate
profits and capital consumption allowances), and Section E. U.S. International Transactions
government surplus or deficit.
This group includes monthly series on exports
Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The
major expenditure components of GNP (excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a
(consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as few selected components of these aggregates. Also
percentages of GNP, and the major income shown are the balances between receipts and
components of national income (compensation of expenditures for goods and services, merchandise,
employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as and investment income.
percentages of national income.
Section F. International Comparisons
This section is designed to facilitate a quick
review of basic economic conditions in six of the
nations with which we have important trade
The important data on price movements include relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has
the monthly consumer and producer price indexes been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial
and their major components. Based largely on production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
these series are the quarterly price indexes from Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Gerthe national income and product accounts, notably many, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corthe GNP implicit price deflator (with weights responding U.S. series. Also included is an inreflecting the changing proportions of different dustrial production index for the European
expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixed- countries in the Organization for Economic
weighted price index for the gross business prod- Cooperation and Development (OECD). The inuct. Data on both levels and percent changes are dustrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the
presented for the period since 1974.
The group of series on wages and productivity economies covered. Changes in consumer price inconsists of data on average hourly earnings and dexes (plotted for the period since 1974) provide
average hourly compensation (including earnings important measures of the rates of inflation in the
and other benefits) in current and constant dollars, major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also
output per hour of work in the business sector, and shown beginning in 1974) tend to be significant as
leading indicators.
rates of change for most of these measures.
Section 6. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded
area) as designated by NBER.
Basic Data
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
plotted. ("9" = September)
Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Data may be actual
monthly figures or moving
averages.)
Dotted line indicates anticipated data.
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where
a moving average is plotted,
Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are plotted. ("IV" = fourth
quarter)
Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data.
Parallel lines indicates a break
in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.).
Diffusion Indexes
Solid line indicates monthly
data over 6- or 9-month
spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Various scales are used to
highlight the patterns of the
individual series. "Scale A "
is an arithmetic scale, "scale
L-1" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles
in that distance, etc.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
used in computing the indexes.
Broken line with plotting
points indicates quarterly
data over 1-quarter spans.
Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are used in computing the indexes.
Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over
various spans.
Diffusion indexes and rates
of change are centered within
the spans they cover.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER.
Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over
various spans.
Rates of Change
Solid line indicates percent
changes over 3- or 6-month
spans.
Arabic number indicates latest
month used in computing
the changes.
Broken line indicates percent
changes over 1-month spans.
Broken line with plotting
points
indicates
percent
changes over 1-quarter spans.
Solid line with plotting points
indicates percent changes over
3-or 4-quarter spans.
Roman number indicates
latest quarter used in computing the changes.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at
the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically
according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the
series titles, o r
2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of
the report where series are listed numerically according to
series numbers within each of the report's sections.
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data8
1
of
measure
Series title and timing classification
Annual average
1983
1984
_
Percent change
1st Q
1985
2<JQ
1985
3d Q
1985
169.7
Sept.
1985
Oct.
1985
Nov.
1985
Sept.
to
Oct.
1985
Oct.
to
Nov.
1985
1st Q
to
2dQ
1985
2dQ
to
3dQ
1985
I
1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A l . Composite Indexes
910.
920
930
940.
156.0
139.9
111 .7
125.4
165.7
154.5
117.3
131 .8
167 . 2
158.9
124.8
127.3
167.3
159.9
127,0
125.9
160,3
128.2
125.0
108.8
102.8
104.7
130 .7
110.3
105.3
110.8
136.4
110.5
102.7
113.7
109.9
102.0
115.1
135.9
40 . 1
3.0
426
40.7
3.4
366
40.4
3.3
390
L,Lg,U.... Ratio
L,Lg,U.... 1967 = 100
0.271
96
0.459
131
0.491
139
U,C,C... A.r., bil. hrs
U,C,C... Millions
..do..
CCC
L C U Thousands
168.31
97.45
90 . 2 0
23,334
177.62
101.68
94.46
24,730
103.39
96.64
25,077
57.15
58.79
10,717
9.6
3.8
20.0
3.8
CCC... A.r., bil. dol
do
C,CC...
C,C,C...
C,C,C...
Leading Indicator Subgroups:
914 Capital investment commitments
910
920
170 .6
160.8
129.2
124.5
171 .3
160.7
130 . 7
123.0
171 .5
161 .2
130.4
123.6
0.4
-0.1
1 .2
- 1 .2
0.1
0.3
-0.2
0.5
0.1
0.6
1 .8
- 1 .1
1 .4
0,3
0.9
-0.7
930
940
101 .6
NA
139.1
111.3
101 .6
NA
140.8
109,9
102.3
NA
142.4
109.8
102 . 1
NA
141 .2
- 1 ,3
0.7
NA
1 .1
-0.1
-0.2
NA
-0.8
-0.5
-0.7
1.2
- 2 .2
0.8
-0.4
NA
2,4
914
915
916
917
40.3
3.2
387
40.5
3.3
379
40.7
3.3
381
40 . 7
3.3
0.
0.
3.7
0.
367
40.7
3.4
371
0.1
-1.1
-0.2
-0.1
0 .8
0,1
2 .1
1
21
5
0.472
133
0.489
136
0.489
136
0,503
140
0.527
144
0.014
2 .9
0.024
2 .9
-0.019
-4,3
0,017
2 ,3
6C
46
181 .12 1 8 2 . 2 7
103.46
97.34
25,055
183.42
104.13
97.97
24,986
184.32
104.57
98.22
24,962
185.41
104.84
98.57
25,045
185.40
104.92
98.75
25,073
0.6
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.
0.1
0.2
0 .1
0.6
0.1
0.7
48
42
41
-0.1
0.6
0.6
0.6
-0.3
59.38
59.26
59.33
59.47
59.59
59.57
0 .12
-0.12
0.07
90
8,539
7.5
2 .8
18.2
2.4
8,426
7.3
2 .9
15.7
2.1
8,417
7.3
2.8
15.5
2.0
8,284
7.1
2.7
15.5
2.0
8,274
7.1
2.7
15.5
2.0
8,291
7.1
2.7
15,3
2.0
8,140
7.0
2.7
16.0
1 .9
-0.2
0.
0.
1.3
0.
1.8
0.1
0.
-4.6
0.1
0.1
0.
0.1
1 .3
0.1
1 .6
0.2
0.1
0.
0.
37
43
4?
91
44
3275.2
2730.9
3492 .0
2876 .7
3547.8
2937.4
3557.4
2948.0
3584.1
2948.6
0.3
2956 .6
2962.5
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.8
0.
5C
2952.6
do
2305,1
2456.3
2504.5
2515.7
2512 .2
2516.9
2 5 2 1 .6
2527.7
0.2
0.2
0.4
-0.1
51
do
498.5
529.0
537.7
536.2
53 5 . 6
536.7
535.7
534.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.1
53
109.2
107 .7
113.7
.
1362.0
121 . 8
124.8
122 . 5
1506 . 4
123.8
127.7
123 .6
1530.3
124.2
127 . 9
124.8
1531 .5
124.8
128.6
126.4
1541.0
125.0
128.5
127 . 0
124.6
127.9
127.0
125.1
128.9
127.1
-0.3
-0.5
0.
0.4
0,8
0.1
0.5
0.5
1 .3
0 .6
47
73
7h
49
L.C.U.... Percent
do
L,C,U....
74.0
75.3
80 . 8
82 . 3
80.5
81 5
80.3
80 4
0.1
— n ft
82
84
l.,LL... Bil. dol
do
L,L,L...
87.74
36.96
100.56 102.49
41 . 4 4
41 . 8 9
103.20
41 . 9 2
106,22
43.10
L,L,L... 1967 = 100
do
CCC..,.
do
LgLeXg....
do
L,L,L...
Twelve leading indicators
Four rouehlv coincident indicators
.....
Six laeeine indicators
Ratio,, coincident index to lagging index
L,L,L...,
do
9 1 *> I n v e t i t o r v i n v p s t m e n t a n d o u r c h a s i n s
L L L
do
916 Profitability
917 Money and financial flows
L,L,L...
LLL...
do .
. do
138.9
110.8
B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
B l . Employment and Unemployment
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
* 1 Average weekly hours, mfg
21 Averaeo weeklv overtime hours mfg 5
*5. Average weekly initial claims (inverted')
L L L . . . Hours
do
L.CL..
L,C,L... Thousands
Job Vacancies:
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment3
46, Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
*41 Employees on nonagricultural payrolls ,
40 Emotovecs in &oods-Droducini> Industrie1)
90. Ratio, civilian employment to population
of working ace3
-
U,Lg,U.... Percent
Comprehensive Unemployment:
37. Number of persons unemployed (inverted!4)
43. Unemployment rate (inverted') 3
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate (nv. 4 ) 3
• 9 1 . Average duration of unemployment (inverted1)
44, Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.4)3
L,Lg,U....
L,Lg,U....
L,Lg,U.,..
1*1*1*...
Lg-U-U...
Thousands
Percent
do
Weeks
Percent
-0.02
0.5
4G
B2. Production and Income
Comprehensive Output and Income:
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars
52 Personal income in 1982 dollars
*51. Personal incortus less transfer payments
in 1982 dollars
53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, mfg.,
and construction
Industrial Production:
•47. Industrial production
73. Industrial production, durable mfrs
74. Industrial production, nondurable mfrs
49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars
Capacity Utilization:
82. Capacity utilization rate, mfg3
84. Capacity utilization rate, materials3
CCC... 1977 = 100
C,CC...
do
C,L,L.
..do...
C,CC... A.r., bil, dol
,
80 . 4
79 6
80 . 3
79 4
79.8
78 9
106.64
43 . 3 5
104.50
hi.11
-0.3
0.3
0.2
1.0
0 .1
-0.5
-0 5
0.2
0 2
-0.2
105.44
42.62
- 2 .0
-2.5
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.1
39.16
-2.27
352.22
42
1 .1
-4.96
-0.6
4
0.6
-0.29
-0.6
-4
-1.1
0.17
0.6
-3
80.0
79 1
52
B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Orders and Deliveries:
6. Mfrs.' new orders, durable goods
7. Mfrs.' new orders in 1972 dollars, durable goods...,
•8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1972 dollars, consumer goods
and materials....
.
25. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods3
96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods5
•32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries5 ©
LLL
do
34.07
L,L,L....
do
2.69
L,Lg,U.... Bil. dol., EOP ... 3 2 0 . 1 2
L.L.L.... Percent
54
37.33
2.11
345.44
61
37.98
0.55
347.10
47
37.57
0.72
349.25
44
38.50
38.94
38.09
2 .98
- 1 .98
2 .41
356.48 356.48 354.49
43
42
46
Consumption and Trade:
56. Manufacturing and trade sales
*57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars
75. Industrial production, consumer goods
54. Sales of retail stores
59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars
55, Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles
58. Index of consumer sentiment ©
CCC...
CCC...
C,L,C...
C.L.U....
U,L,U....
L,C,C...
LLL
368.77
161 . 7 0
109.3
97.86
47,75
87.7
87 5
411 .30 4 1 8 . 9 3
176.08 179.09
118.2
119.2
1 0 8 . 0 8 111 . 6 4
51 . 7 6
53-.05
105 . 0
110 . 9
aA ^
97 5
424.38
181.11
120.0
114.66
54.29
112 .5
4 2 7 . 3 0 4 2 9 . 0 0 426 . 3 4
NA
182,76 183.7 9 182.14
NA
121 . 1
121.7
121 .7
121.1
116.98 119.54 114.55 115.85
55.33
54.26
56 . 4 7
54.01
126 . 1
114.8
50,162
117.1
52,960
117.7
54,521
115.8
55,776
117.1
NA
117.4
NA
115.3
NA
L L L . . . Bil.' dol
26 . 6 8
31 . 3 0
30.95
30.64
32.92
34.52
L,L,L... ..
L,L,i
.do
do
13 . 4 0
22.73
15,44
26.95
15.75
26.78
14,81
26 .34
15.80
27 . 8 2
16.40
29.24
do
11 . 7 2
13.64
14.07
13 .12
13.79
14.32
Bil dol....
do
1977=100
Bil. dol
do
A.r., bil. dol
IQ 1966-100
Q A "\
An
0
2.9
2.8
6
7
g
1 .4
1 .69
2 .1
-1
25
96
32
-0.5
-4.2
-4.4
NA
NA
0.5
1.1
0.5
1 .3
1 .1
0.7
2 .7
2.3
1 .4
0.7
0.9
0.9
2.0
1 .9
12.1
56
57
75
54
59
55
116.1
NA
- 1 .8
NA
0.7
NA
- 1 .6
2 .3
1 .1
NA
12
13
33.10
31 . 6 8
-4.1
-4.3
-1.0
7.4
10
15.72
27.09
15.05
26 . 7 1
-4.1
-7.4
-4.3
-1.4
-6.0
- 1 .6
6.7
5.6
20
24
13.35
13.09
-6.8
- 1 .9
-6.8
5.1
27
ft R
-0.6
-0.9
L
B4. Fixed Capital Investment
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12. Net business formation
13. New business incorporations
Business Investment Commitments:
10. Contracts and orders for plarrt and equipment
*20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1972 dollars
24. Mfrs.' new orders, nondefense capital goods
27. Mfrs.1 new orders in 1972 dollars, nondefense
capital goods
L,L,L... 1967 = 100
L,(L,t
Number
L,L,L....
Basic data2
Unit
of
measure
Series title and timing classification'
Percent change
Annual average
1983
1st Q
1985
1984
2dQ
1985
Sept.
to
Oct.
1985
Series number 1
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
1st Q
to
2dQ
1985
2dQ
to
3d Q
1985
24.41
95.88
-2.2
-7.9
0.5
12.6
-11 .4
-4.0
4.5
0.3
61
2 .6
0.9
3 .0
-0.1
0.4
0 .6
69
76
-1.3
3 .9
1 .7
-5.6
1 .7
2 1
28
29
89
3dQ
1985
Sept.
1985
Nov.
1985
Oct.
1985
Oct.
to
Nov.
1985
1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS—Con.
84. Fixed Capital Investment—Con.
Business Investment Commitments—Con.:
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and
industrial buildings, floor space
L,C,U.... Mil.sq.ft
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, mfg
U,Lg,U.... Bil. dol
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.*
C,Lg,Lg,.,. 8il. dol., EOP ...
Business Investment Expenditures:
61. Expenditures ior new plant and equipment
• 69. Mfrs,' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
76. Industrial production, business equipment
86. Presidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars
63.56
22.00
73.50
78.07
29.36
94.37
83 . 6 8
29.94
99.35
81 . 8 7
27 . 5 6
99.88
92.16
93,19
92.00
C,lg,Lg.... A.r., bil.dol
304.78
353 . 5 4
371 .16
387.83
388.90
C,Lg,Lg....
do
C,Lg,U.... 1977 = 100
C,Lg,C... A r hit rin!
320.64
115.4
360 . 1
375.00
134.9
430 .3
391 . 5 4
140.2
457 . 2
401.73
141 .5
470 .9
401.42 397 . 7 6 4 0 8 . 6 4
142.1
142.1
141 .1
473 .7
1 ,703
131 . 1
148.7
1,747
134.6
168.3
1,795
132.9
166.7
1,772
138.1
169.6
Residential Constriction Commitments and Investment:
28. New private housing units started
*29. Building permits, new private housing units
kQ ffociHential fivori inuPttmpnt in 1QR? HnllaK
L,L,L... A.r., thousands..
L.L.L... 1967 = 100
1 1 1 A r hit rlnl
1,673
140.5
173.1
92 . 6 1
NA
141 .9
0.7
- 1 .3
2 ,7
-0.7
NA
0.6
9
11
97
36
1,547
132.5
9.0
- 6 .7
-12,2
- 1 .6
-0.7
-16.9
30
- 1 .08
37.4
NA
NA
1 .07
28.6
NA
NA
-6.40
-17.7
-3.96
-6.6
36
31
-0,34
NA
-0.23
NA
0.70
0.18
38
578.92 5 7 8 . 9 2 5 82.03
6 3 6 . 1 2 636 . 1 2 6 3 8 . 0 2
88.26
87.58
88.26
NA
NA
NA
0.5
0,3
-0.8
NA
NA
NA
0 .2
0.3
-0.3
-0.1
0 .1
- 1 ,8
71
70
65
1,616
144.2
1,761
134.6
-2.16
-3.0
-2.15
8.8
-0.09
-0.11
85. Inventories and Inventory Investment
Inventory Investment:
30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars3
*36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on
order in 1972 dollars (smoothed6)3
31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories, book value3
38. Change in mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies
on hard and on order book value3
LtL,L...
L,L,L...
L,L,L...
do
-5.5
6'2.7
15.8
15.1
do
do
1.98
11.1
21 . 2 9
53.2
8.20
21 .3
1 .80
3.6
1 .45
0.71
-0.97
520.28 5 7 3 . 4 3
583.93 6 3 0 . 2 6
80.96
89.69
578.77
634.00
90.12
L,L,L... Bil.dol
Inventories on Hand and on Order:
71. Mfg. and trade inventories, book value*.....
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ...
do
70. Mfg. and trade inventories in 1982 dollars5
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do
65. Mfrs.1 inventories, finished goods, book value5
Lg,Lg,Lg....
•77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in
197,? dollars3
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Ratio
78. Mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
5
and on order, book value .....
L,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ...
1 .59
1 .54
208.73 2 1 7 . 3 0
1 .57
214.40
-0.27
579.66
635 . 7 4
89.87
- 1 .8
1 .56
1 .55
1 .54
1.56
NA
0.02
NA
-0.01
-0.01
77
213.61
213.35
213 . 3 5
213.69
NA
0.2
NA
-0.4
-0.1
78
0 .22
2 5 0.7
-0.34
-0.36
239.5
-0.45
-0.62
238.0
-0.47
1 .53
236.9
-0.22
-0.24
234.5
-0.08
2.15
-0.5
0,25
- 1 ,77
- 1 .0
0.14
-0.58
-4.5
-0.11
98
23
99
184.80
188.30
184.06
B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
98. Change in producer prices, sensitive materials3
23. Spot market prices, raw industrial materials ©
*99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed6)3
L,L,L... Percent
U,L,L... 1967 = 100
L,L,L... Percent.....
Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (u)
L,L,I
Profits find Profit Margins:
16. Corporate profits after tax
18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars
79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj
BO
An
in 1982 dollars
15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, mfg.3
?fi Ratio Drice to unit labor cost nonfarm business
L,L,L... A.r., bil.dol
do
L.L.L....
L,C,L...
do
LC L
do
L,L,L... Cents.....
1977 — 100
LL L
129.8
60.5
138.6
136 9
4.0
98 0
144.0
68.0
179.6
17 4 3
4.6
99 6
136.6
128.7
198.3
1 90 0
4.2
99 4
136.4
127.6
205.8
196.4
3.7
99 . 6
Cash Flows:
34. Corporate net cash flow
3Ei Coroorate net cash flow in 1982 dollars
L,L,L... A.r., bil.dol
LL L
do
318.9
149 3
367.3
16 9 2
379.9
3 72 6
1941-43=10...
Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share:
63. Unit labor cost, business sector
Lg,Lg,Lg.... 1977 = 100
fi8. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product,
nonfinancial corporations
Lg,Lg,Lg..,. Dollars
'52. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.
a) Actual data
Lg Lg Lg . 1967 = 100
*b) Actual data as percent of trend3
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Percent
64. Compensation of employees as percent of
do
national income3
Lp LE Lfi
1 .24
258.5
1 .03
-0.37
278.9
-0.19
- 1 .02
253.8
- 0 .77
160.41 160.46
177.30
186 .18 1 9 7 . 4 5
1 .2
1 .24
- 1 .2
0.43
4.2
1 .9
19
141 .1
131 .7
221 .7
211.4
3.7
99.6
-0,1
-0.9
3.8
3 .4
-0.5
0 ,2
3.4
3 .2
7.7
7 .6
0.
0 .
16
18
79
80
15
26
387 , 3
381 0
404.0
3 96 .9
1 .9
2 .3
4.3
4.2
34
35
6.1
156 .0
157 . 6
161 .9
162 . 6
163.2
0.4
0.4
63
0.681
0.689
0.703
0.709
0.709
0.9
0.
68
215.9
95.1
212.4
88.3
216.2
86.7
215.4
85 . 2
214.8
83.7
-0.4
- 1 .5
-0.3
- 1 .5
62
62
0 .3
0 .1
64
0.30
-0.22
-0.30
1 .5
0 .3
0.06
0 .16
0 .33
3.2
2 .0
85
102
104
105
-0.098
-0.001
-0.153
-0.026
107
108
0.56 - 1 3 . 4 6
5.70
-33,02
3.86
-8.27
-0.4
-3.3
8.6
5 .2
33
112
113
HI
110
-0.06
39
74 6
73
i
73 5
73
8
73 .9
214.9
83.4
216.2
83.5
216.0
83 . 0
0,6
0.1
-0.1
-0.5
B7. Money and Credit
Money:
85. Change in money supply Ml 3
102 Chance in monev SUODIV M23
104. Change in total liquid assets3
105. Money supply Ml in 1972 dollars
*106 Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars
Velocity of Money:
107. Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml 3
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M23
Credit
33.
112.
113.
•HI.
110
Flows:
Net change in mortgage debt3
Net change in business loans1
Net change in consumer installment credit3
Change in business and consumer credit outstanding3
Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers
Credit Difficulties:
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inverted*)35
do
L,L,L...
do
LC.U....
do
L,L,L...
L,L,L... Bii. dol
do
L,L,L...
0.78
0.95
0.87
214.0
886 .2
0 .47
0.67
0.93
219.5
917.2
0.80
0.81
0 .76
224.0
952,6
1 .10
0.59
0.46
227 . 3
955 .5
1.16
0.75
0.79
234.5
974.2
0 .99
0.59
0.83
2 3 6.9
979.2
-0.13
0.18
NA
235.9
977 .9
1 .10
0.55
NA
237 .2
977.9
- 1 .12
-0.41
NA
-0.4
-0.1
C,C,C... Ratio
do
C,Lg,C...
6.672
1 .344
6.926
1 .366
6.896
1 .341
6 .798
1 .340
6.645
1.314
1 .309
1 ,313
1.313
0.004
L,L;L... A.r., bil. dol
do
L,L,L....
do
L,L,L...
L,L,L... A.r., percent
L,L,L... A.r., bil.dol
L.L.L.. Percent, EOP ...
64.87
77.85
64.39
99.80
77.29
37.55
-2.17
53 . 6 7
3.53 - 1 2 . 2 2
3.28
30 .85
76.36
90 . 1 5
47.73
94.01 138.37
98.42
15.2
5.7
9.0
8.8
8.4
12 .1
40 3 50 4 8 2 6 7 446 6 9 47 0 0 4 510 56
1 .94
2 .09
2 .40
2.33
2.39
2.39
115.01
74.11
79.54
15.6
NA
1 .23
0 .37
NA
0.6
0 .
0,
NA
50.14
71 .02
86 .33
NA - 5 8 . 8 3
6 .6
11 .1
NA
-3.09
NA
-4.5
NA
NA
NA
0.07
106
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Percent change
Basic data'
Unit
of
measure
Series title and timing classification1
Annual average
1984
I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B7. Money and Credit-Con.
Bank Reserves:
93, Free reserves (inverted*) 3 ©
94. Borrowings from the Federal Reserve1 ©
L.U.U.... Mil.dol
...do..
L,Lg,U,...
Interest Rotes:
119. Federal funds rate3 ©
114. Discount rate on new Treasury b i l l s 3 ©
116. YieW on new high-grade corporate bonds3 ©
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds3 ©
117. Yield on municipal bonds3 ®
118. Secondary market yields, FHA mortgages3 ©
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans 3 ©
*109. Average prime rate charged by b a r k s 3 ©
L,Lg,Lg... Percent
do...
C,Lg,Lg....
do..,
Lg,Lg,Lg.,
do..,
C,Lg,lg.
do..,
U,Lg,lg.,
do..
Lg,lg,tg....
do..
Lg.Lg.Lg....
do..
Lg,Lg,Lg....
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment credit outstanding1
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
•101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in
1972 dollars
*95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to
personal income3
Lg,Lg,Lg.... til. dol., EOP .
Lg,tg,Lg.... Bil. dol
Lg.Lg.Lg--
do
lg,Lg,Lg.... Percent
Sept.
1st Q
1985
2d Q
1985
3dQ
1985
Sept.
1985
Oct.
1985
Nov.
1985
Oct.
1985
Oct.
to
Nov.
1985
1st Q
to
2dQ
3dQ
- 5 4 5 -3,046
1,034
3,730
-621
1,426
-472
1,287
-374
1,156
-623
1 ,289
-434
1,187
-814
1,741
-189
-102
3 80
554
-149
-139
-98
-131
9.09
8.62
12 .25
10.84
9.51
13.11
10.64
10 .79
8.48
8.18
12.57
11 .43
9.64
13.24
10.10
10.54
7.92
7.52
11 .88
10.91
9.04
12.38
9.90
10.20
7.90
7.10
11 .52
10.59
9.05
12.05
9.27
9.50
7.92
7.08
11 .66
10 .67
9.27
12 .04
7.99
7.17
11.51
10,56
9.08
11 .87
8.05
7.20
11 .17
10.08
8.54
11 .28
0.07
0.09
0.06
0.03
-0.34
-0.48
-0.54
-0.59
9.50
9.50
9.50
-0.56
-0.66
-0.69
-0.52
-0.60
-0.86
-0.20
-0.34
-0.02
-0.42
-0.36
-0.32
0.01
-0.33
-0.63
-0.70
4.7
1.2
4.7
-0.2
10.22
9.57
13.37
11 .99
10 .10
13.82
12.02
12.04
3 7 6 . 0 1 452.37 4 7 6 . 9 8 499.52 523.02 523 .02 529.65
NA
264.66 299.73 326 .98 330.90 330.40 329.70 335.88 341.80
104.02 115.04 126.00
127.36
128.05 128.39 129.88 131 .46
12.31
13.41
14.45
15.03
15.56
15.80
15.92
10.4
298.4
0
291
303
315.7
323.6
312.3
287.2
284.6
10.8
311 .1
0.3
302.9
310 .3
322.6
331
320.0
294.1
290.4
110.4
317.4
0.3
308.7
309.1
322 .5
316.2
319.3
298.1
290.5
111.3
321 .2
0 .3
308.5
309.4
324.6
305.0
319.3
300.2
292.0
112.1
323.6
0.2
309.2
307.3
323.5
296 .5
317.5
300.8
291 .2
324,5
0
309.9
305
322
293
317.4
299.8
289.7
155.3
162.8
163.8
165,1
165.9
94.9
161 .6
98.3
103.7
103.4
94
168.2
98.1
107.0
106.2
94.6
172.5
98.5
106.9
106.0
94.4
173.9
98.3
107.3
106.3
94.4
175.4
98.6
108
106.9
0.
1 .3
1.9
NA
1 .8
1.2
1 .2
1 .1
NA
0.12
NA
0.58
0.53
325.5
0.3
310.6
308.0
324.4
302
317.7
302.9
292.0
326 .6
0.6
312
309
325.0
311 .2
318.6
303
294.9
0
0
0
0
0.6
3 .1
0.1
1.0
0.8
0
0
0.7
0,6
0,2
2.9
0
0.1
1,0
0.8
1
0
-0
0
0
-3
0
0
0.5
0
0
-0.1
0.2
-0,7
-0
-2
-0.6
0
-0
166.7
166.4
166.9
-0.2
0.3
0.8
94.7
94,3
94.0
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
0.8
-0.2
0.4
0
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.6
0.2
0
-6.4
14.1
-1 .4
-0.1
0.1
-1,8
-0.1
0
-9.2
0.4
0
0
-0.1
0.4
1 .2
-4.1
-1.7
0
0.4
-1 .6
-3.0
-0.2
-0.9
0
0 .
0.1
0.8
0.
-0.1
-0.5
-0.1
0 .
-1.3
-0.1
0.
0.
-46
-4.4
1 .2
-5 9
1 .7
3.1
7.8
4.7
2.9
-0.4
2 .1
2.4
22.3
-5.3
18.8
2.6
1.8
2.6
NA
18.5
7.0
2.3
2 .1
5.4
-5.5
-16.3
-3
2.4
33.5
0.6
-0.1
-4.1
-5.9
-2.2
-29.2
6.4
II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
Id. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
Bl. Price Movement;
310.
320.
320c.
322.
330.
335.
331.
332.
333.
334.
1982=100.
Implicit price deflator for gross national product
Consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) © . . . 1967=100...
Percent. ..
Change in CPI-U (S/A) 3
1967 = 100...
Consumer price index for all urban consumers, food
do. .
Producer price index (PPI), all commodities ©
...do..
PPI, industrial commodities ©
...do
PPI, crude materials for further processing
.do. ..
PPI, intermediate materials, supplies, and components
.do.
PPI, capital equipment
do
PPI, finished consumer goods
B2. Wages and Productivity
340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls;
341. Real average hourly earnings of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls
345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector
346. Real average hourly compensation, nonfarm bus ness sector
370. Output per hour, business sector
358. Output per hour, nonfarm business sector
,
1977 = 100...
do
do
....do
....do
..do..
C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment
441.
442.
37.
444.
445.
446.
447.
Civilian labor force
Civilian employment
Number of persons unemployed
Number unemployed, males 20 years and over
Number unemployed, females 20 years and over
Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age
Number unemployed, full-time workers
Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates:
451. Males 20 years and over3
452. Females 20 years and over3
453. Both sexes 16-19 yeiirs of age3
,
Millions...
....do
Thousands...
...do
..do
..do
Percent
....do...
111.55 113.54 115.16 1 1 5 . 1 8 115.48 115.82 116.16 116,07
100.83 105 .00 106.73 106.76 107,19 107 .54 107.87 107.93
8,539
10,717
8,426
8,417
8,284
8,274 8,291
8,140
3,932 3 , 7 6 8
5,257
3,7 83
3,668
3,637 3,663
3,659
3,107
3,632
3,155
3,192
3,187
3,244 3 , 0 3 8
3,037
1 ,499 1,503
1,590
1,829
1,442
1,429
1,394
1,444
7,057 6,913
9,075
6,797
6,799
6,789 6,692
6 ,717
78.5
53.1
53.5
78.3
53.7
53.9
78.2
54.6
55.6
78.1
54.6
54.3
78.0
54.6
54.3
78.1
54.8
54.0
7 8.1
54.9
54.8
78.1
54.8
54.3
D. Government Activities
Dl. Receipts and Expenditures
500.
501.
502.
510.
511.
512.
Federal Government surplus or deficit3
Federal Government receipts
Federal Government expenditures
State and local government surplus or deficit9...
State and local government receipts
State and local government expenditures
A.r.,bil.doL
....do.. .
do.
. .do. ,.
..do. ...
..do..
•179.4 - 1 7 2 . 9 - 1 6 2 . 6
658.1
789.7
725.1
837 .5
952.4
898.0
63.2
48.6
64.4
560.5
487.7
539.8
497.2
43 9.1 4 7 5 . 4
Mil.dol
20,635 22,437 21,072 25,769
NA
NA
10,787 12,942 12,099 11,458 1 3 , 5 8 3 11 ,385
6,773
7,452
7,336
9,323
8,714
8,106
143.1
157 .9
167.2
171 .6 1 7 5 . 6
177.5
1 ,359 1 ,444 1 ,522 1,550
1,582
1 ,586
215.7
237.0
256 ,0 2 6 9 , 9
249.5
-209.1 -201 .3
754.9
790.7
964.0
992.0
57 .3
56.9
570.0
581 .8
512.7
524.9
D2. Defense Indicators
517.
525.
548.
557.
570.
564.
Defense Department gross obligations incurred
Defense Department prime contract awards
Mfrs.' new orders, defense products
Industrial production, defense and space equipment
Employment, defense products industries
Federal Government purchases for national defense
....do...
1977 = 100...
Thousands
A.r., bil. dol...
NA
NA
6 ,179
178*7
1,595
NA
NA
7,2 40
181 .5
1,601
NA
NA
-23,8
0.7
0.6
16,722 18,137 18,567 17,544 17,522 17,732 17,368
3,011
2,294 2,200
3,146
2,741
2,053
2,325
3,998 3,763
3,536
3,875
4,126
3,694
3,777
2 1 , 5 1 3 27 ,132 28,137 28,802 28,159 31 ,764 27,594
4,689
4,340
3,750
5,005 3,545
3,811
4,041
3,787
4,425
2,937
4,452 4,735
4,198
5,555
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
-2.1
13.2
-2 .2
-13.1
-5.7
-24.4
NA
NA
17.2
1 .6
0.4
E. U.S. International Transactions
El. Merchandise Trade
602.
604.
606.
612.
614.
616.
Exports, excluding military aid shipments
Exports of domestic agricultural products
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
General imports
Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
Imports of automobiles and parts
Mil. dot....
...do...
...do...
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data'
Unit
of
measure
Series title
Percent change
Annual average
1982
1983
1984
2d Q
1984'
3dQ
1984
4th Q
1984
1st Q
2dQ
1985
3dQ
1985
4th Q
to
1st Q
1985
lstQ
to
20 Q
1985
2dQ
3dQ
1985
II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Con.
E2. Goods and Services Movements Except
Transfers Under Military Grants
667.
668.
669.
622.
618.
620.
651.
652.
Balance on goods and services3
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade3
Merchandise exports, adjusted
•
Merchandise imports, adjusted
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Bil. dol
...do...
..do..,
..do...
..do...
;
:
0.02 - 7 . 9 8 - 2 3 . 9 9 -26.24 - 2 6 . 0 9 -27 .71 -21 .08 -24.27 -26.48
87 .51 83.40 90.51
$.87
91 .24 91 .43 8 8 . 5 3 89.39 90.14
87 *49 91 .38 114.49 115.11 117.34 119.14 109.61 113.66 116 .62
- 9 . 1 1 - 1 6 . 8 0 - 2 8 . 5 3 -29.62 - 2 8 . 9 8 -30 .88 - 2 3 . 4 5 -28.59 -33 .14
52.80 50.43 5 4 . 9 8 54.56 5 5 . 6 5 56 .24 55.30 53.62 52.31
61 .91 67.23 83.51
84.18
84.63 87.13 78.76 82.21 85.45
21 .19 19.51 21 .90 20.90 2 1 . 7 7 21 .44 18.87 22.28 24.04
13.82 13.16 17.12 17 .28 18.51
16.33 16.89 16.49
17.44
6.63
-3.2
-8.0
7.43
-1 .7
-9.6
-12.0
-6.4
-3.19
1 .0
3 .7
-5.14
-3.0
4.4
18.1
3.4
-2 .21
0.8
2.6
-4.55
-2.4
3.9
7.9
-2.4
667
668
669
622
618
620
651
652
A. National Income and Product
Al. GNP and Personal Income
200.
50.
217.
213.
224.
225.
227.
3166.0
3166.0
13,625
3190.5
2261 .4
2261 .5
9,732
3401 .6
3275.2
13,961
3280 .6
2425.4
2334.6
9,952
3774.7
3492.0
14,751
3429.3
2670.2
2 46 8.4
10,427
3757.5
3492.6
14,773
3426.6
2649.9
2 461.8
10,413
3812 .2
3510.4
14,812
3445.5
2696.7
2480.5
10,466
3852.5
3515.6
14,797
3479.5
2723 .8
2484.4
10,457
3917.5
3547.8
14,903
3532.0
2739.2
2482 .7
10,429
3960.6
3557 .4
14,916
3542.3
2817.7
2532.2
10,617
4016 .9
3584.1
14,988
3585.8
2800,2
2503.1
10,468
1 .7
0.9
0.7
1.5
0.6
-0.1
-0.3
2.9
2 .(
1 .)
.do.,
..do..
.do.
..do.
2050
2050
252
252
771
771
1027 .0
1027.0
2229.3
2145.9
289.6
283.6
817.0
800 .7
112 2.7
1061 .7
2423.0
2239.9
331 .1
318.6
872.4
828.0
1219.6
1093.3
2414.4
2243 .0
330.2
317.7
873 .2
832.8
1211 .1
1092.6
2439.0
2243.4
331 .1
318.0
876 .6
831 ,2
1231 .3
1094.3
2480 .
2262,
341 ,
327 ,
883
828,
1255,
1105,
2525,0 2563 .3
2303 .5
356 .5
351
335
340.3
895
910.2
839.9
846 .7
1277.8 1296 .6
1116 .5
2606 .1
2329.6
376.0
359.3
914.5
849.8
1315.6
112 0.4
1 .8
1 .2
2 .9
2.3
1.4
1 .4
1 .8
0.7
...do..
..do..
...do..
...do..
...do..
...do..
447.3
447 .3
471.8
471.8
-24.5
-24.5
501 .9
503.4
508.3
508.9
-6.4
-5.5
674.0
661 .3
607.0
598.6
67.1
62.7
673.3
662.9
604.5
596.8
68.9
66.0
687.9
673.3
619.5
608.4
68.3
64.9
676 .2
659.9
637.2
623.8
39.0
36.1
657.6
639.6
639.1
623 .8
18.5
15.8
672.8
655.6
657 .3
640.5
15.5
15.1
666 .1
645.0
665.9
646 .8
0.2
-1 .8
.do.
do
do .
..do.
.do.
. do
641 .7
641.7
272.7
272.7
369.0
369.0
675.7
647.8
284.8
275.5
390.9
372.2
736.8
675.9
312.9
292.5
423.9
383.3
735.1
677 .1
314,8
294.8
420.3
382.4
747.3
682 .4
318.5
296 .7
428.8
385.7
768.4
693 .9
332.9
307.3
43 5.5
386 .6
777 .2
691 .4
334.4
304.3
442.8
387.1
794.8
699.4
337.8
305.9
457.1
393.6
26.3
26.3
361.9
361 .9
335.6
335.6
-5.3
-21.9
354.1
349.3
359.4
371.2
-59.2
-85.0
384.6
370.9
443 .8
455.9
-65 .3
-90.4
382.3
366.6
447 .6
457 .0
-61 .9 - 7 2 . 2
-88.7 •100
391 .4 389,
376 .9 377.3
453 .3 461 .7
46 5.6 477.5
A.r.,
Gross national product
Gross national product in 1982 dollars
A.r,
Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars
A.r.,
Final sales in 1982 dollars
Disposable personal income
.. . .
Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars
.
A.r.,
Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars
bil.dol
.do
dollars..
bil. dol
.do. ..
dollars..
1 .4
0.8
0.5
1 .2
-0.6
-1.1
-1.4
200
50
217
213
224
225
227
0 .7
1 .4
1 .6
1 .6
0
1 .5
0 .3
5.5
5.6
0.5
0.4
1 .5
0.3
230
231
232
233
236
238
237
239
-2 .8
-3 .1
0.3
0
-20
-20.3
2 .3
2 .5
2 .8
2.7
-3 .0
-0.7
-1 .0
-1 .6
1.3
1 .0
-15.3
-16.9
240
241
242
243
245
30
832.5
729.2
364.8
331 .1
46 7.7
398.1
1 .1
-0,4
0
-1 0
1 .7
0.1
2 .3
1 .2
1 .0
0.5
3 .2
1 .7
4.7
4.3
8.0
8.2
2.3
1 .1
260
261
262
263
266
267
-87.8
-42.3
-70.3
-71 .8 -101 .1 -119.8
363.2
379.6
369.2
353.5
368.7 358.2
451 .0
421 .9 43 9.5
473.3
440.5
459.3
29.9
28.4
-2.5
-2.3
-8.6
-7.7
-17.5
-18.7
-1 .6
-1 .3
2.6
3.0
250
255
252
256
253
257
1 .1
1 .2
A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
230.
231.
232.
233.
236.
238.
237.
239.
Total
Total in 1982 dollars
Durable goods...
Durable goods in 1982 dollars...
Nondurable goods
Nondurable goods in 1982 dollars..
Services
Services in 1982 dollars
A.r., bil. dol.,
.do.
...do..,
A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240.
241.
242.
243.
245.
30.
Total
Total in 1982 dollars
Fixed investment
'.
Fixed investment in 1982 dollars
Change in business inventories3
Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars 3 ..
A4. Government Purchases
of Goods and Services
260. Total
261. Total in 1982 dollars
262.
263.
266.
267.
Federal Government
Federal Government in 1982 dollars
State and local government
State and local government in 1982 dollars;
250.
255.
252.
256.
253.
257.
Net exports of goods and services3
Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars3
Exports of goods and services...
Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
Imports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
A5. Foreign Trade
..do..
..do..
...do...
-28
-29.3
-2.7
-2
4.2
4.3
A6. National Income and Its Components
220.
280.
282.
284.
286.
288.
National income
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj . . . . . .
Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj
Net interest
290.
295.
292.
298.
293.
Gross saving
Business saying
Personal saving
Government surplus or deficit 3 .,
Personal saving rate3
.do.
.do.
.do..
..do.,
.do.
2518.4 2718.3 3039.3 3021 .1 3064.2 3104.4 3155.3 3192 .2 3228.0
1 9 0 7 . 0 2025 .9 2221 .3 2204.8 2241.2 2 2 7 8 . 5 2320.4 2356 .9 2385.2
237.5
239.4 240.9
232.9
232.3
233.7
175.5 192
229.1
14.5
11 .0
9
10 .0
13.8
10 .8
11.9
13.6
12
309.1
288.1
150.0 213.8 273.3 277 .8 271 .2 2 7 6 . 2 281
272.3 273.6 300.2 297 ,6 309.5 3 0 7 . 0 302.9 292.4 281 .8
1 .6
1 .8
2.8
13 .4
2 .0
-1 .3
1 .2
1 .6
0 .6
25.5
2.3
-3 .5
-1 4
5.1
7.3
-3 6
220
280
282
284
286
288
0.8
2.0
-20.4
27 .4
-1.2
-1 .1
1 .8
27 .7
-52.5
1 .1
-6.0
4
-38
7 .4
-2.2
290
295
292
298
293
A7. Saving
...do...
..do..,
....do..
....do..
Percent
446 .4 46 9 . 8 584.5
403.2 467.4 520.5
153.9 133.2 172.5
•110.8 -130 .8 -108.5
6 .8
6.5
5.5
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ©, that appear to contain no seasonal
movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in
current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles and sources, see "Titles and Sources of
Series" at the back of this issue. NA, not available, a, anticipated. EOP, end of period. A.r., annual rate. S/A,
seasonally adjusted {used for special emphasis). IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. CCAdj, capital consumption
adjustment.
1
The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all
turns: L, leading; C, roughly coincident; Lg, lagging; U; unclassified.
581.3 592.8 573.5
516.0 527 .4 535.9
162.6 181 .5 164.5
- 9 7 . 3 -116.0 -126.8
6.0
6 .1
6 .7
571 .7 537.3
578.3
546 .8 556 .4 579.2
130.9
167.2
102 .6
-99.4 -151 .9 -144.5
4.8
5.9
3.7
?
For a few series, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual
figures published by the source agencies are used if available.
3
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
4
Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of
the changes are reversed.
s
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the
period.
6
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed on the terminal month of
the span.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS
Chart A l . Composite Indexes
Nov. Oct.
P T
July IVtay
P I
.....
Aug. Apr.
P T
Apr. Feb,
PT
Jan. July July Nov.
P T P T
Nov. Mar.
P
T
Dec. Nov.
P T
fidex: 1967-1001
180-
jw
T^fiil
*£
910. Index of twelve leading indicators
(serjes 1,5, 8,12,19,20,29.32.136.99.106. I l l )
S
Zr^S
7
V SK
170160150140130120-
\
. Index of four roughly coincident indicators
(series 4 47; 51, 57)
1j
r
¥!! \ /
1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 841985
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of feads (-) and lags ( + ) In months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.
10
DECEMBER 1985
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A
I
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A l . Composite Indexes—Continued
Jan. July July Nov.
P T P T
I Index: 196^1001
Capital investment commitments (series 12, 20,29)
investment and purchasing (series ?> 3f, 36,99) t U
940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging todex - i ^
1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 841985
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1985
11
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A
^_
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
I
Chart A2. Leading Index Components
Nov. Oct.
P
T
Ji ly May
l> T
Aug. Apr.
P. T
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Dec. Nov.
PI
Mar.
T
Jan. July July
P T
P
Hm.
T
1. Avera^ weekly N j s of protection of mmsupervisory workek manufacturing (hours)
State programs (thousands—inverted scale) fj~Q~[
I!
8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1972 dollars, consumer goods
2nd materials! Industries (bjl. dol.) r f f [
32, Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower
deliveries (percent)
12, Net business formation (index: 1967-100)
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
I 197? doBars H i t doU
i
1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 53 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67
76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 841985
Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 1 , 34, 65, and 66.
12
DECEMBER 1985
KCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued
July May
P T
Aug. Apr.
P T
Apr. Feb
P T
Dec. Nov.
P T
Nov.
P
Mar.
T
Jan. July July
P T P
Nov.
T
36, Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1972 dollars, smoothed1 (ann. rate, bil. do).)
60 J
99. Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed1 (percent
19. Stdck prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10)
L
106, Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)
111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding
(ann. rate, percent)
jL,L,L
^*S^S
^/\^
"K/^
w
1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 6
71 72
7S 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 841985
'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 68, 69, 7 1 , and 72.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1985
13
CYCUCAL INDICATORS
A
I
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A3. Coincident Index Components
Jan. July July Nov.
P T
P
T
41. Employees on nonagricuitural payrolls |
W
51. Personal income less transfer p a p m t s in
1982doflars (ann. rate, bil. dd.)
cXc
47. Industrial production (index: 1977-100)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in
1972 doHars (1)1. dol.)
J fill
jijifl
iT
k PJ
j\y
1/ltUl
1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 53 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 841985
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 63, and 65.
14
DECEMBER 1985
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A4. Lagging Index Components
Nov. Get
P T
July May
P T
Aug. Apr.
P T
Apr. Feb.
P T
91/
Dec. Nov.
P T
Nov. Mar.
P
T
duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale)
Jan. July July Nov.
P T P T
!
Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in
§ 7 2 dollars (ratio)
V
A . / ^ i V»
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing—actual data
as jiercent of trend (percent)
. Average prime rate charged by bank^j {percent)
and industrial loans outstanding
dof.)
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding
1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 97 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80
83 841985
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 70, and 73.
BCII DECEMBER 1985
15
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment
Apr.
Feb.
Dec.
Nov.
Nov.
Mar.
P
T
P
T
P
T
Jan. July
P
T
July
P
Nev
T
[Marginal Employ men! Adjustments |
1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers,
manufacturing (hours)
21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nonsupervisory workers,
manufacturing (hoiirs) | L , C , I
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (thousands—inverted scale) F r J J l
46. Heto-wanted advertising in newspapers I (index: 1967 ~ 100)
L,Lg,U
1
1959 60
61
62
63
64
6S
L
\
(16
67
68
69
70
fin
r
y
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 6 1 .
16
DECEMBER 1985
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued
Apr,
P
Feb.
T
Dec.
P
Nov.
T
Nov.
P
Mar.
T
Jan.July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
190-
| Comprehensive Employment [
180-
170:
48.
; .
•
••
i i • • •
•.
i
:
•
•
•
•
•
-
•
•
.
;
•
•
•
•
•
•
:
{
.
.
.
'
'
!
!
v
i
•
•
•
:
Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
(ann, rajte> jbili hours)
160-
150-
140-
42. Persons engaged in rionagrieultural actiiirties jmillions)
tea*
'''
41. | ^ ! o | e e s on nonagriculiural payrolls (millions)
40, Employees oni nonagricuftural payroilsj|gOoa^producing
industries (rrfllions)
|! I!
6059-
SO. Ratio, civilian em^pyment to population of||»orkirjg age (percent) \ f*
58-
/
57-
M
/^?
1959 60
5655-
JL,JWV
61
62
54-
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 1 and 62.
KCII DECEMBER 1985
17
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued
Apr.
Feb.
Dec.
Nov.
Nov.
Mar.
P
T
P
T
P
T
Jan. July
F
T
July
Nov.
P
T
"""""* in
[Comprehensive Unemployment |
37. Number of persons unemptoyed (millions—inverted scale)
43. Unemployment rate (percent—inverted scale)
\
\
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (percent—inverted scale)
\
/
\ :
91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale)
k
/*_
\
^
44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent—inverted scale)
\
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
6»6
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
/
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 62.
18
DECEMBER 1985
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B2. Production and Income
Ian. July
P T
July
P
Hoy.
T
I Comprehensive Output and Income
50. Gross: national productfy1?82 dollars, Q (ann. jiate, fjjf. dol)
52. Personal ijicom* in 1982 dollars (
51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)
;
1200 -J
53. Wages and salaries fn 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing,
j
, and construction! ( m . rate, bil. dol.)
600-1
550
500450-
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 63.
BCII DECEMBER 1985
19
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL, INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B2. Production and Income—Continued
Apr.
Feb.
P
T
Jan, Joly
P
I
July
Nov.
P
T
[TrKfc^trial Production
47. Industrial production (index: 1977
CXX
73. Industrial production, durable manufactures
(index: 1977—100)
74. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures
(index;'1977*= 100)
!
IX
49. Value of goods output in
(ann. rate, bil. dot.)
OCX
Gttjjcity Utilization
82. Capacity utilization rate,
84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (percent)
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
(36
67
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.
20
DECEMBER 1985
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Dec. Wov.
P
T
Nov.
P
Jan. July
P T
Mar.
T
July
P
Wov.
T
I Orders and Deliveries |
6. Manufacturers' new orders inicurrent dollars,
durable goods industries (biLdol.)
\r
v
7. Manufacturers' new nrrters in 197? rinllars. rinrahte goods
industries (bil. dol.)
8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1972 dollars, consumer
goods and materials indu$triesm(bi1. doll)
LIT
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders,
industries (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.~4-term)
LLL
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(bil. dol.)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies
receiving slower deliveries (percent)
100-
A
755025-
1959 60
61
62
63
64
@5
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
aa 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 64.
DECEMBER 1985
21
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
mption and Trade
56. Manufacturing and tratte sales in current dollars
: (HidoL)i
59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars (ttl M.)
1959 60
61
©2
63
64
65
6B
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
/uL/l/Ul
81 82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 65.
22
DECEMBER 1985
RCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment
Apr. Feb.
P T
Dec. Nov.
P
T
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
160140-
[Formation ;of Business Enterprises
Net business formation (index
1201006050403040353025-
Contracts and orders for
20-
[Bustess Investment Commitments |
15-
10-
20. Contracts and ordersforplant and equipment
: in 1972 dollars ( b l dol.)
35302520-
24. Manufacturers'new
; capital goods Indus
15-
10-
Manufacturers* new orders in 1972 dollars, no
capftal gpflds industries (bill dol,)
!
!
'
'
•
•
'
•
"
5-*
llO-i
10090807060-
^;Construction; contracts awarded for Commercial and i
hiiilffina^ ^mil <:n ft nf ftnnr <:narp-Mfin mnuina
50-
40-
1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66.
ItCII DECEMBER 1985
23
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
Jan. July
Apr. Fab.
P
F
T
T
Jyly
P
Urn.
T
120-i
110100
908070-
l%iless Investment Commitments—Con, 1 ;
60-
97. Backlog of capita!
50403530-
25-
20-
15-
11, Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing corporation, Q (biL dol.)
61. Expenditures for n«w plant and equipment by U.S
nonfarm b u s i n g Q : ( m j r a t e t
^
ss Investment Expenditures
68. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures (am-$te r bl. doi.)
business equipment
L/UUL
1959 60
61
62
63
64
6!>
66
67
68
69
70
-'.;;;•.'N,r-..',..L':...'i.-Ji.itnJijlj
71
72
73
74
• J J 1 . L-
75
76
•..
77
- J i . r •.
;
78
79
80
ui.jLjin.A
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.
24
DECEMBER 1985
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
Apr
Feb.
P
T
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
I Business Investment Expenditures—Con. |
Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars (ann. rate,
86. Total, Q
C.Le.C
88. Producers' durable etnjioment, 0
87. Structures, Q [Lg,
80 -
1 Residential! Construction Commitments and Investment ||
I P
units started (ami, rate, mifons)
29. New private housing units authorized
1959 60
61
62
63
64
69
66
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 67.
KCII
DECEMBER 1985
25
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
Nov.
P
Dec. Nov.
P
T
Apr. Fab.
P
T
,
Inventory Investment]
Jan July
P T
Mar.
T
July
P
Nov.
T
30. Change in busine^ inventories in 1982 dotim, j (ann, rate,foii.dol.)
36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and onorder
in 1972 dollars (ann. rate, bil> dot.; movirt| j t f . - 4 - t e r m 1 )
tk XAtfU
31. Change in manufacturing and trade inv^ories, book M i £
(ann. rate, bil. dol.; MCD moving avg,*4-term)
UX
38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, matef^s and supplies on hanc
and on order, booh value (bit. dol.; MCD moving avg.-4-term)
lAJ;
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
!
ulJUlJLll
81
82
• . . .
83
84
85 1986
'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.
26
DECEMBER 1985
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued
Jan. July
P
July
Nov.
T
P
T
80
81
7Qi; Mantifacturpi and trade inventoilei
711 Manufacturing a
: book vaM ( k doi.)
65. Manufacturers' i
I book value (fail, d f e
lg,Lg,Ll
77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1972 dollars
Manufacture^ inventories, materials and
d ^ d j bootcivalue
b t i l <biL
<bL doL)
dL) jF
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
32
83
84
85 1936
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.
ItCII DECEMBER 1985
27
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
Apr.
Feb.
Dee.
Nov.
P
T
P
T
98
[Sensitive Commodity Prices!
fi
'
-
Mar.
MQV.
P
Jan. July
T
P
T
July
Nov.
P
T
Chan e in
* ^ { m W'K*S for 28 sensitive c r t d e and
intermediatem$m®$ (percent;MCDimvmgavg.—6-term)
99. Change in sensitive materials prices (percent; moving
avg.M-terml)|j|m
19, Stock prices, 500 common stojfe (index:
| Profits and Profit Margins
rn
fporaU profits after Ur in 19f? fHl?ft
16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars, Q
(arm. rate, biLdol.) ilrrr-]
ii
1959 @O
61
62
63
64
©5
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
83
84
85 1986
l
This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
beginning with data for June 1 9 8 1 , this is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
28
DECEMBER 1985
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
Jan J u l y
P
T
July
Nov.
P
T
Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj in
198? dofters, Q (ann. rate, M . d o l l
and; Profit Margins—Con.
79, Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj in
current dollars, Q (arm. rate, bil. dot.)
''
IcI
22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits afdr tax to corporate
81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with IVA and
CCAdj to corporate domestic! income, Q (percent)
V /
! \ >!'
15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, man
26. Ratio, implicit {price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm
hnsiness sector. 0 finrtex: 1977i=10Q>
35. Corporate net cash flow; in 1
(ann. rate. bil. doi)
U
34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars, Q
(aW rije, bil. dol.) r j j [
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
7@
79
80
81
82
83 84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.
ItCII DECEMBER 1985
29
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
.abo^iCo$t$ andlLabor Share!
63. Unit labor cost, business sector, Q
(index; 1077-100)
68. Labor cost in curr ertf dollars per unit of gross (Jomestic product in
1982 dollars, nonfirtancial corporations
1
62> Labor cost per unit of output; manufacturing (index
64. Compensation of employees as a
Q (percent) ;
=17*1
. J I i l J L f u L f - • • J'. •'•• ''...I-'. !, ".
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
i ' ' !- ; ! ' : 1 .
78
79
u'U 1 ,
80
LfJL'UL/L
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series fire shown on page 70.
30
DECEMBER 1985
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit
Apr. Feb.
P
T
i. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
85. Change in moriejTsupply MJl i
i; •. (percent; MCDj mowjng av£—6--term)h^L
102. Change in money supply M2
(
; (percent; MCO moving avg.—6-term)
; 104.1 Charge in total liquid a^ats (percent; M#> rnqtog avg.—6-term)
m
w^
+1.2-
K : *::
rP<
'fi
T
. VF;l;j.;Ji!
+0.8-
+0.4
0.0-1
105. Money supply M l in 1972 dollars (bB. do).)
250-|
230
107. Ratio, gross national product to money Supply M l ,
Velocity off Monjey |
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (ratio)
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 7 1 .
KCII DECEMBER 1985
31
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
80
81
82
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by
and life insurance companies (ana rate, fail, dol)
112-
Net change in business loans (ann. rate, bil. do!,; ;
MCD moving ayg.—(|tain)
113.
111.
61
62
63
64
Net change in consumer installment credit
(ann. rate, bijl dot; MCD moving avgJM>*t|mi) ;
Change in business and c m m e r credit outstanding ( n j l t rate, percent)
110.
1959 60
|]7Tp
65
ll,l,L
Funds raised by prWate nonfinancial borrowers
markets, Q (am. jja^blLdol.) i1, ', ;
56
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.
32
DECEMBER 1985
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Jan. July
P T
H
ft
r i p Current liabilities of'
IV i!
inverted scale: MCC
iivwtedscale;MCK
July
P
Nov.
T
81
82 83
mess faigres (mi. dot
avgi—Merm)
wfw m
m ' 1 imm
39. Percent of consumer instalment loans delinquent 3 | dayji and Over
(percent—inverted scale!
93. Free reserves (biL doL—inverted Kale)
[
94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve (bil. do].)
!•• ^
1959 60
61
62
63 64
65
66
67
68
U : - I I ; : : r n r ^ - j j j p " :;:•-• . ^ • - • . n .
69
70
71
72
73
74 75
"i
76
:: . ,
77
78
79
80
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 72.
ItCII DECEMBER 1985
33
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Jan. July
P T
Apr. Feb.
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
81
82
funds rate (percent)
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day
jreasufjy bills (percent) |C,Lg,Lg
Yield on new issues of hieti-erade corporate bonds
Id on long-term Treasury bonds (percent)
C.Lgl
market yields on FHA mortgages (percent)
U7. Yield on municipal
:. ;•
.
. J
U
U
1959 60
L
•
61
•
. . .
62
•
63
•
.
64
:
. ..
65
'.
6(3
.
67
•
•
.
:
68
. ' J i i i . i l .
69
. . : • • •
70
71
average (percent)
.
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73.
34
DECEMBER 1985
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Jan.Juty
P T
Dec. Nov.
P
T
July
P
Nov.
T
81
82
66. Consumer installment credit
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
83
84
Current data for these series are shown on page 73.
DECEMBER 1985
35
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE
Chart C l . Diffusion ndexes
Apr. Feb.
P T
Nov.
P
Dec. Nov.
P
T
Jan. July
P T
Mar.
T
950. Twelve leading indicator components
f
July
P
Nov.
T
1-mo, s p a n - — )
100-
50-
o951. Four roughly coincident indicator component^ (6-rtio. span
, 1-mo. s p a n — )
iiiif i
!
j i{
|{
s t;
:« 11\
;
i
i 'I
)w"
if '•:
JLl
100-
50-
i
Six lagging indicator components (6-mo. spafl—4 1-mo. s p a n — )
952.
50-
oJ
961. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervtsory workers, 20
manufacturing industries (9-mo. span
, 1-mo. span-l
100-1
50-
962.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, 51 areas
(percent declining; 9-mo. ^patu—, 1-mo. s p a n - 4 )
100-
50-
0-
963.
Employees on private nonagricultural payroifs, 172-186 industries
(6-mo, span-*-., l-rik>. $ p a n - - 0
100-
50-
0-
X959 60
61
62
63
64
69
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 74.
36
DECEMBER 1985
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Nov.
P
Dec. Nov.
P
T
964.
Mar.
T
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
I Percent rising [
Manufacturers' new orders, 34-35 durably goods industries
(9-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. span - - -)
!i
100-
50-
0-
Newly approved capital appropriations in ly'iz dollars, 1 /
manufacturing industries (4-Q moving a v g , ^ » ( 1-Q s p a r w )
9070-
iy^Mk.v A .-,
fw ' T rrm'
966.
*
v
5030 J
Industrial production, 24 industries (6-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. span.--)
1001
50-
967.
0-
Spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials
(9-mo. span-—, 1-mo. span---) :
100-
50-
968.
960.
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
Stock prices, 500 common stocks, 45-82 industries
(9-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. span---)
Net profits, manufacturing, about 600 companies1 (4-Q span)
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
32
83
84
85 1986
s a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Oun & Bradstreet, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
DECEMBER 1985
37
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued
Jan. July
P T
Mar.
T
July
Nov.
P
T
(
l
ii
' i!
Jan. July
P T
'fetal
July
P
Nov.
T
*—*
Anticipated • • .
970, Expenditures for new plant afitf equipment,
21 industries (1-Q span)
i
971. New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span)
972. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)
973. Net sales, manufactbing and tr$* (4~Q span)
1974 75
l
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
1974
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
1986
ThIs is a copyrighted series used by permission; it mjiy not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400
business executives.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
38
DECEMBER
1985
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart C3. Rates of Change
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
1-wntfi spans - - J U
3^montJi span*
[Percent change at annual rate
910c. Composite trildlex of tiet*
920c. | Composite index pf four fotitjly coincident indicator*
330c, Composite index of jsix %gtng indicators j
47c. Index of industrial production
50c.) Gros^ national product m 1982 dollars (1-Q span)
L/U JUlJl
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series were published.
ItCII
DECEMBER
1985
39
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A l . GNP and Personal Income
Jan. July
P T
Apr. Feb.
P
T
223.
July
P
Nov.
T
Personal income in current
(am. rate, b i cW.)
personal income in 1982
Q (arm. rate, bit. do!.)
ana rate, tnous. ow.)
.I.
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
.•
71
<•
72
m
73
::
'
74
75
76
:
77
(
!
78
79
« . - •
•
80
81
82
•
83
84
...
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80.
40
DECEMBER 1985
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
Jan July
P T
Apr. Feb.
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
Personal consumption expenditures—
1 Annual rate, babndojars (1982)1
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on pages 80 and 8 1 .
BCD
DECEMBER 1985
41
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
Jan July
P T
Apr. Feb.
P
T
July
P
Nov.
T
81
82
Gross private domestic investment
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 8 1 .
42
DECEMBER 1985
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Jan. July
P T
Apr. Feb.
P
T
July
P
Nov.
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current) |
purchases of goods and services—
Annual rate, b f a i dollars (1982)1
,
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
. <' i , LOJUU'-
68
69
70
-J'
71
,U
72
JUJUULJ " i
73
74
75
' _>
76
77
',
78
79
80
81
32
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 81.
RCII DECEMBER 1985
43
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
I A I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A5. Foreign Trade
Jan. July
P T
Apr. Feb.
P T
July Nov.
P
T
2531 Imports of goods and service^!}
256. M i l of goods and uticesijQ
i f $ . Net exports of U
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
m service*; Q
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 82.
44
DECEMBER 1985
IICII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A6. National Income and Its Components
Jan. July July
F T P
Nov.
T
[Annual rate, b i f a dollars (current)|
280. Compensation of employees, Q
"
•
-
••il-
IV-
-
..
';|:
•
'
•
.
:
•
!
•
•
•
!
:
rnption adjustments, Q
288. Net interest, 0
282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments, Q
284. Rental income of persons with caUijtat \
consumption adjustment, Q
ll
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 82.
ItCII DECEMBER 1985
45
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A7. Saving
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Dec.
Nov.
Nov.
Mar.
P
T
P
T
Jan. July
P T
July
Nov.
P
T
|Annual rate, b l M j dollars (current))
j| 293, Personal saving ifcte, Qj
...11
.
- ,
•^ **VH
. .
.. U U L I L -
19S9 60
•
SI
..
§2
. •. • •
©3 64
.
65
•
.. .•:...;
66
67
v
68
• jijuiJi:
69
70
zrafc
a. i;
V*»
;
\z
;
71
;. : .
li
101
A^
:
:
. . . . u u u u L ' . •.." , :.J'... .."...: ...•
72 73
74 75 76
•
77 78
•
79
(
..L U:
80
^
J51
-". LA.JLA.J;.J°.
81
82 83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on pages 82 and 83.
46
DECEMBER 1985
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income
Jan. July
P
T
July
Nov.
P
T
70-
65-
00-
20-i
268, State and local government purchases
! of $0$ arid services, Q
|:
:
Federal Government jiurchases of good? and services, Q
248. lYonresidentiar fixed investment Q 1
5-
249. Residential fixed investment; Q
0-
| > 247. Change \n busies* inventories, Q
251. Net exports of goods and
-5-
| Percent ol;National income
80 T
75-
70-
287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation i
jjdrrt 4apitaljconsumptk*|adju^ments, Q
1
income with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments, Q ;
285, Reiila! Nome of persons with capital consumption adiustrtfei& 0
1959 60
61 62 63 64 65 66
67
68
69
70
71 72 73
74 75 76
77 78 79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 83.
I B C I ) DECEMBER 1985
47
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY
Chart B l . Price Movements
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Mar.
T
Nov.
T
Jan. July July
P I P
fj Implicit price deflator for gross
11 national product ( 1 - 0 span),
Nov.
T
| Percent change at annual rate)
,.'
3 LA!
10. Implicit orice deflator for gross
10-
311c. fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product
(1-Qspan)
+ 15-
3 VAA
311. Fixed-weighted price , indax, .gross
+ 5-
Pm|ucer price indexes—
| 6-month spans J
+ J0-
330c. Ail commodities
K4
+ 20-
I
331c. Crude materials for
further processing
1974 75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
1974 75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 85, and 86.
DECEMBER 1985
itcn
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Chart B l . Price Movements—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P T
Nov.
P
Dec. Nov.
P
T
Mar.
T
Jan, July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
340-1
Consumer price indexes—
140-
, 320. AN urban consumers
100-1
+ 20-i
320c. All urban consumers (6-month span)
o-r
&
322c. All urban consumers, food
yvA/
*-20-|
. A Ac-/
5 HL
JVV
+10-
^E3
-IOJ
Chart B2. Wages and Productivity
1 Index: 1977=100]
200180-
341. Real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory^
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls1
i
X
•; >
160140-
—
120100-
80-
340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagriculturat payrolls (current dollars)1
200180160140-
346. Real average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q
120100-
60-
Average nourty compensation, an employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q (current dollars)
40 J
1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 6$ 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79
81
82
83
84
85 1986
•Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and Interindustry employment shifts and seasonally.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88.
KCII DECEMBER 1985
49
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued
Apr.
Feb.
Dec.
Nov.
Nov.
Mar.
P
T
P
T
P
T
Jan. July
P
I
July
Nov.
P
T
1 Percent change]
| Wages- C o n . |
6-month spans (ann. rate)
+ 15
Change in average houriyniriiigrufiHiHluUkiiiui i
1
workers on private nonagricuitural
agricultural payrolls 1—
i
\
j;
jVffLj'k..f
*
.'ijjLlL -lif^rtHL r J
+10-
340c. Current-dollar eat
1-month spans2
i\
+ 10
v
rf} ^
341c. Real earnings } \ ^ ^ ^
b-monin spans ^ann/raie;
i
Tt 1
Change in average hourly compeisation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q—
M
W*
\ ii
*> ' i
'• !• !
+ 50
i; n
-5
-10
+ 15
345c. Current-dollar compensation
+ 10+ 50-
i-quarter spans (ann. rate)
Keal compensation
^; I!
0-
4-quarter spans v
-5-
Negotiated wage and benefit decisions—
348, Average first-year changes, Q (ann. rate)
^ K / J\
f\
A
/\V^ / \
349. Average changes over life cf
!: contract, Q (ann. rate)
358. Output per hour, an persons,
nonfarm business sector, Q
J / U . uuipui per iHHir, an pc
business sector, Q
370c. Change in output per hour, all persons, business sector, Q
| Percent change |
1-quarter soans (ann. rate")
1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 79 76 77 78 79 80 81
84
85 1986
'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally. 2 One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make them comparable
with the annualized 6-month changes. See page 87 for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 8(1.
50
DECEMBER 1985 K M )
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
C
I
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Chart C l . Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
Apr. Feb.
P T
Dec.
P
Nov.
T
Nov.
P
Mar.
T
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
441. Civilian tabor force (millions)
100-
90-
442.
Civilian employment (millions)
m*
70-
Civilian labor force participation rates (percent)
30-
4bLMales 20 years and over
85-
7560-
453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age
/^V
45 «
14-
Number unemployed (millions)—
12-
1-8
10-
447. Number unemployed, full-time
workers (millions)
448. Number otpersons employed part timelor
economic reasons (millions)
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
Current data for these series are shown on page 89.
ItCII DECEMBER 1985
51
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
I£ ) I
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Chart D l . Receipts and Expenditures
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Dec. Uw.
P T
Nov.
P
Mar.
T
Jan July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
| Annual rate, b i f a dolars (cum
13001100900700-
502. ff|ederai Government expenditures, Q
"
500-
II L
300-
100 J
500. federal Government surpkjs or (jeficit, Q
511. State and local
512. State and tocal government expenditures, Q
510. State and local government surplus or deficit, Q
1959 60
61
62
63
64
$5
136 67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 90.
52
DECEMBER 1985
ItCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators
Dec. Nov.
P
T
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Nov.
P
Mar.
T
Jan. JLIV
P
7
Ju!y
P
Nev.
T
[Advance Measures of Defense Activity]
517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred
(bil. dpi.; MCD moving avg.—6-
525. Defense Department prime contract awards
(bil. dof.; MCD moving avg.—6tterm)
80 J
543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (bil. dol.)
141210-
j
6-
548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products
(hi dol.; MCD moving avg.~6~term)
\ \
4-
*IlVi
It
1h
$
' M* t
*I
2J
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 75
76
77
78 79
83
84
89
1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 90.
DECEMBER
1985
53
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
Apr
Feb.
P
T
Jan. July
P
July
NOT.
T
P
T
80
81
[intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity] ;
557. Industrial production, defense and space equipment
559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products, book value
(bit. doL)
561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products
580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions and military
assistance (bil, dol.)
588. Manufacturers' shipments,
(bil, dol.)
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 9 1 .
54
DECEMBER 1985
KCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Jan. July July
F T P
Dec. Nov.
P
T
Nov.
T
nietjfoediate and Final Measures of Defense; Activity—
Defense Purchases I
al Government purchases of goods d(u! services, jnational
f Q (ann.j'ate, ))i!. do)r)
as | percent of: GNP, IQ (percent)
05
DECEMBER 1985
66
©7
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
55
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
u s
- INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Chart E l . Merchandise Trade
Apr. Feb.
P
Jan. July July
F T P
Dec. Nov.
P
T
T
Nov.
T
602. Exports, excluding mi
(bil. dol.)
604. Exports of domestic agricultural products
(bit. dol.)
60b. txports or nonelectrical macmnery
612. General imports (bit.
Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
616. ImjKJrts of automobiles
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
65
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 92.
56
DECEMBER 1985
ItCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E
I
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
Annual rate, billion dollars
Gokls and services-^
Merchandise, adjusted-
Balance on merchandise
investment abroad,
652. Foreign investment in the United States, Q
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 93.
IICII DECEMBER 1985
57
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Chart F l . Industrial Production
Bee.
P
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Nov.
P
Nov.
T
Jan. July
P T
Mar.
T
July
P
Nov.
T
I Index: 1977=1001
Industrial production—
728. Japan.
721. OECD European countries
111. United Kingdom
47. United States
728. Japan
1959
60
61
62
63)
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
S3
84
8§
Current data for these series are shown on page 94.
58
DECEMBER 1985
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Chart F2. Consumer Prices
Jan.
P
Mar.
T
Chart F3. Stock Prices
July
July
Nov
Mar.
T
P
T
T
' ••• v ••••;;••: : ; ; . ; r . r : ; - H
;••:•::•:•:;..• : ' : ; : [
: . -
:
:
- "
Jan. July
P
T
July
P
Nov.
T
' I'-.tCL'i'^ L'^irjH; "i >'• *';'"•'} •W
' - V ~
1Q»4—
IJindex;
;| Percent change sit iinnWni:!
e
;f|^jmsfe:;Ei;'-ii:-;
£on$$ner pricesK
260220180 140 H
R •"•U.-Vi^-J320^;«6at«t"Sfe"»S-:: jF^-ii^t?:---^?^'- f^- 5L'^:^i^^:^<• r-^^•^•:i-i^--^ v---^^^.
100 <
—
12001000800-
30-]
600-
748. Japan
20
\
400-
738c. Japan
350-
10H
300250200150 H
100400350300250-
736c. France
..
200+ 10-
150 J
800700 -
0
600+ 30-j
500-
EiE;!:r;:;;i.:,::::
732c. United Kingdom
400-
+ 2C-I
300 -
+ 10
200-J
3G0-
io
260 220180-
A
737C. ^ / ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
—
140 -
100-
60400350300-
733c. Canada
_
,
250-
_
# / * ^ —
—
—
—
-
—
•
200-
—
150-
/^w Efl
100
1974 75
76 77 78 79 80 81 82 S3 84 85 1986
1974 75
7%
78 79
81
82
83
84
89
J
1986
Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96.
DECEMBER 1985
59
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A
I
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS
Q
910. Index of
twelve loading
indicators (series
1, 5, 8, .12, 19,
20, 29,32, 36,
99,106,111)
Year
and
month
(1967-100)
920. Index of
four roughly
coincident indicators (series
41,47,51,57)
(1967-100)
930. Index of
six lagging indicators (series
62, 77,91,95,
101,109)
(1967 = 100)
COMPOSITE INDEXES
940. Ratio,
coincident index
to lagging index
Leading indicator subgroups
914. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 12, 20,
29)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
915. Inventory
investment and
purchasing
(series 8,32, 36,
99)
916. Profitability (series
19, 26, 80)
917. Money and
financial flows
(series 104, 106,
111)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
1983
145.2
147.4
150.2
134.3
133.5
134.6
115.7
115.8
114.4
116.1
115.3
117.7
106.3
107.0
107.2
97.7
99.2
101.3
97.6
98.6
100.5
127.2
129.1
129.8
1;52.5
154.4
157.3
135.6
137.9
139.8
113.5
111.0
109.8
119.5
124.2
127.3
107.7
109.3
110.3
101.9
102.3
102.5
102.5
104.6
105.7
129.7
129.0
131.5
July
August
September .
158.2
153.9
160.0
140.7
140.8
143.3
109.7
110.3
109.7
128.3
127.7
130.6
109.4
108.9
109.3
103.1
104.4
104.7
106.5
107.0
107.9
132.4
132.0
130.2
October
November
December
162.4
162.5
163.4
145.0
145.9
147.5
109.6
110.0
110.9
132.3
132.6
133.0
110.4
110.1
109.2
105.4
105.2
106.1
108.4
108.6
108,8
131.1
132.0
133.9
January
February
March
164.5
166.5
167.2
149.5
150.6
151.1
109.8
111.3
112.8
(H> 136.2
135.3
134.0
110.3
111.5
110.8
106.1
106.8
107.5
109.2
108.4
109.3
133.4
134.8
136.3
April
May
June
168.1
168.;*
166.7
152.6
153.9
155.4
114.6
116.4
117.5
133.2
132.2
132.3
110.7
110.7
111.1
H>107.9
107.7
106.0
110.1
110.8
110.5
136.6
138.1
138.0
July
August
September
163.9
164.4
165.7
155.7
156.0
156.5
118.8
119.8
121.0
131.1
130.2
129.3
109.6
110.3
110.4
104.6
103.6
103.8
110.3
111.7
112.2
137.3
136.9
137.3
October
November
December
164.2
165.1
164.1
156.5
157.7
rl58.8
122.0
121.7
rl21.9
128.3
129.6
rl30.3
109.3
109.8
109.3
103.8
103.4
102.3
112.4
112.8
rll2.5
135.5
136.0
rl36.3
166.3
167,6
167.8
rl58.4
rl59.0
rl59.3
rl24.1
rl24.6
rl27.6
rl27.6
rl25.6
rl26.8
109.3
E>111.6
110.6
102.6
102.8
102.6
rll3.1
rll3.9
rll4.0
rl39.0
rl38.8
139.0
April
May
June
166.9
rl67.4
rl67.6
rl60.4
r!60.0
rl59.3
rl25.6
rl27.7
rl27.6
rl27.7
rl25.3
rl24.8
109.7
109.6
110.3
102.5
102.0
101.5
rll4.4
rllB.l
rll5.9
rl36.9
rl35.8
135.0
July
August
September
rl68.5
170.0
170.6
rl59.4
rl60.8
rl60.8
rl27.8
rl27.7
rl29.2
rl24.7
rl25.9
rl24,5
110.1
111.0
rill.3
101.6
101.5
rlO1.6
rll6.6
E>rll6.6
(NA)
137.0
rl39.5
rl40.8
171.3
H> 1 171.5
160.7
E>a161.2
®130.7
9
130.4
rl23.0
P123.6
rlO9.9
P109.8
rlO2.3
P102.1
January
February
March
April
May
June
, .
1984
1985
January
February
March
October .
November , . .
December
[H)rl42.4
P141.2
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by <§), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements
in general business activity, current low values are indicated by[H), Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back
of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 10 and 11.
Excludes series 36, for which data are not available.
Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.
Excludes series 77 and 95, for wh:Lch data are not available.
60
DECEMBER 1985
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q j
Minor Economic
Process
Marginal Employment Adjustments
Timing Class
Year
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
L.L.L
I. Average weekly hours
of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing
Comprehensive
Employment
Job Vacancies
L.CL
L.C.L
21. Average weekly overtime hours of production
or nonsupervisory workers,
manufacturing
5. Average weekly initial
claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs1
(Hours)
(Thous.)
L. Lg. U
60. Ratio, help-wanted
advertising in newspapers
to number of persons
unemployed
U,C,C
L, Lg, U
46. Index of help-wanted
advertising in newspapers
48. Employee hours in
nonagricultural establishments
month
(Hours)
(Ratio)
(1967 = 100)
(Ann. rate,
oil. hours)
Revised 2
1983
January .
February
March
39.4
39.2
39.6
2.4
2.4
2.5
507
478
479
0.215
0.214
0.216
83
83
83
165.56
164.08
165.08
April
May
June
39.9
40.0
40.1
2.8
2.7
2.9
470
453
406
0.213
0.230
0.243
81
87
92
166.13
166.96
167.65
July
August
September
40.3
40.3
40.7
3.0
3.1
3.3
380
408
387
0.283
0.273
0.284
100
97
98
168.76
168.68
170.82
October
November
December
40.7
40.6
40.6
3.3
3.3
3.4
386
381
378
0.335
0.359
0.391
111
114
121
171.61
171.39
173.01
40.8
E>41.1
40.7
3.5
3.5
3.5
364
E>345
348
0.406
0.435
0.420
123
129
124
174.29
175.77
175.12
April
May
June
41.0
40.7
40.6
E>3.6
3.4
3.4
360
348
350
0.419
0.435
0.485
124
125
134
176.83
176.56
177.42
July
August
September
40.5
40.5
40.6
3.3
3.3
3.3
365
358
368
0.484
0.449
0.459
138
128
129
177.83
178.29
179.32
October
November
December
40.5
40.5
40.6
3.3
3.4
3.4
405
397
386
0.484
0.501
0.527
136
137
E>145
179.25
180.34
180.38
40.6
40.1
40.4
3.4
3.3
3.2
378
402
389
0.488
0.496
0.489
139
140
138
180.77
180.65
181.94
40.2
40.4
40.4
3.4
3.1
3.2
387
383
392
0.463
0.464
0,488
131
131
138
181.70
182.43
182.67
July
August
September
40.3
40.6
7
3.2
3.3
3.3
381
375
381
0.490
0.487
0.489
139
133
136
182.63
183.30
184.32
October
November
December
40.7
P40.7
r3.3
P3.4
367
371
0.503
[H>p0.527
140
pl44
E>185.41
P185.40
1984
January
February
March
1985
January
February
March
April
May
June
. .
An
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17.
x
Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.
a
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
DECEMBER 1985
61
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q |
Minor Economic
Process
Comprehensive Unemployment
Comprehensive Employment—Continued
Timing Class
Year
and
month
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Continued
U,C,C
42. Number
of persons
engaged in nonagricultural
activities
(Thous.)
C.C.C
41. Employees
on nonagriculturat payrolls
(Thous.)
L.C.U
40. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls,
goodsproducing
industries
(Thous.)
U, Lg, U
90. Ratio,
civilian employment to population of
working age
(Percent)
L Lg, U
37. Number of
persons unemployed
L, Lg, U
43. Unemployment rate
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programsl
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Thous.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
91. Average
duration of
unemployment
(Weeks)
Lg, Lg, Lg
44. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over
(Percent)
1983
January
February
March
95,792
95,756
95,897
88,835
88,740
88,942
22,938
22,836
22,814
56.53
56.43
56.47
11,513
11,556
11,430
10.4
10.4
10.3
4.5
4.5
4.4
19.0
19.2
19.3
4.2
4.2
4.2
April
May
June
96,20S
96,282
96,987
89,244
89,578
89,945
22,923
23,051
23,177
56.59
56.56
56.97
11,316
11,258
11,273
10,2
10.2
10.1
4.4
4.2
3.9
19.3
20.3
20.8
3.9
4.0
4.0
July
August
September . . .
97,691
98,101
98,675
90,341
90,041
91,182
23,348
23,449
23,608
57.32
57.51
57.68
10,534
10,595
10,281
9.4
9.4
9.2
3.7
3.5
3.3
21.3
20.2
20.4
3.9
3.6
3.5
October
November . . .
December . . .
98,758
99,453
99,700
91,473
91,773
92,167
23,796
23,953
24,065
57.65
57.97
58.10
9,872
9,448
9,208
8.4
8.2
3.2
3.1
3.0
20.3
20.1
19.6
3.3
3.1
3.0
January
February
March
100,000
100,524
100,818
92,603
93,115
93,387
24,234
24,464
24,507
58.12
58.40
58.49
9,026
8,836
8,783
8.0
7.8
7.8
3.0
2.9
2.9
19.9
19.0
18.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
April
May
June
101,023
101,795
102,023
93,725
93,998
94,317
24,603
24,670
24,767
58.59
58.97
59.04
8,300
8,560
8,228
7.8
7.5
7.2
2.8
2.7
2.7
18.7
18.5
18.1
2.5
2.5
2.3
July
August
September . , .
102,044
101,884
102,075
94,615
94,893
95,238
24,842
24,889
24,851
58.98
58.80
58.88
8,491
8,481
8,370
7.5
7.5
7.4
2.7
2.7
2.7
18.0
17.6
17.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
October
November . , .
December . . .
102,480
102,598
102,888
95,573
95,882
96,092
24,918
24,955
25,045
58.96
59.06
59.20
8,367
8,142
8,191
7.3
7.1
7.2
2.7
2.8
2.8
16.7
17.4
17.3
2.2
2.1
2.1
January
February
March
103,071
103,345
103,757
96,419
96,591
96,910
0)25,112
25,062
25,056
59.24
59.35
59.55
8,484
8,399
8,396
7.4
7,3
7.3
2.9
3.0
2,9
15.3
15.9
15.9
2.0
2.1
2.1
April
May
June
103,517
103,648
103,232
97,120
97,421
97,473
25,090
25,066
25,010
59.41
59.37
58.99
8,426
8,413
8,413
7.3
7.3
7,3
2.8
2.8
2.8
16.1
E>14.9
2.1
1.9
2.0
July
August
September . . .
103,737
104,080
104,568
97,707
97,977
r98,217
24,980
25,015
r24,962
59.21
59.32
59.47
8,451
D8.127
8,274
7.3
7.0
7.1
2.8
2.7
2.7
15.4
15.6
15.5
2.0
2,0
2.0
October
November . , .
December . . .
104,841
[H>104,920
r98,571
(H>P98,753
25,045
p25,073
E>59.59
59.57
8,291
8,140
7.1
(H>7.0
2.7
E>2.7
15.3
16.0
EM.9
1984
1985
2.0
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on paces 14, 15, 17, and 18.
1
Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.
62
DECEMBER 1985
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
Q
PROCESS
PRODUCTION AND INCOME
Minor Economic
Comprehensive Output and Income
Process
Timing Class
•
C, C, C
50. Gross national product
in 1982 dollars
Year
c, c, c
c,c,c.
• Personal income
223. Current
dollars
and
Industrial Production
52. Constant
(1982) dollars
c,c,c
51. Personal
income less:
salaries in 1982
transfer pay-
dollars, mining,
ments in 1982
mfg., and con-
dollars
struction
53. Wages and
C,C,C
47. Index'of.
industrial
production
'C, C. C
'. 73. Index of
industrial
production,
durable manufactures
C.L.L
74. Index of
industrial
production,
C.C.C
49. Value of
goods output
in 1982 dollars
nondurable
manufactures
month
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.).
(Ann. rate,
bil.doL)
Revised1
Revised1
Revised1
Revised1
Revised1
3,196!6
2,749.8
2,745.4
2,763.3
2,688.0
2,683.7
2,69B.5
2,263.6
2,256.3
2,267.5
489.4
487.9
489.4
102.5
103.3
104.2
98.7
100'. 1
101.8
107.5
108.2
109.4
April
May
June
3,259^3
2,780.8
2,810.4
2,825.9
2,697.2
2,718.0
2,725.1
2,268.2
2,285.3
2,295.6
489.9
491.7
494.9
105.6
106.9
107 3
103.3
104.7
105 9
110.6
112.4
113 4
July
August
September
2,842.1
2,845.5
2,869.6
2,735.4
2,728.2
2,740.8
2,310.1
2,304.6
2,320.3
498.0
499.3
505.4
109.8
111.6
113.7
108.6
3,293*.4
110.9
113.1
114,9
116.2
118.0
3,357*.2
2,909.1
2,933.9
2,961.3
2,770.6
2,783.6
2,801.6
2,352.1
2,359.5
2,377.7
508.9
512.3
515.0
114.4
114.8
115.5
114.4
114.9
116,3
117.9
117.9
117.5
3,449^4
3,004.5
3,039.2
3,057.7
2,826.4
2,848.4
2,857.7
2,403.5
2,426.8
2,435.5
519.2
523.6
524.5
118.4
119.3
120.1
119.6
121.0
122.2
119.5
121.0
121.6
1,489*6
3,49 2 : 6
3,072.8
3,079.1
3 098 7
2,861.1
2,861.6
2 871 8
2,438.5
2,440.4
2 451 6
527.1
527.1
530 2
120.7
121.3
122 3
123.3
123.8
124 7
121.9
122.3
123 2
i,5n:6
3,510^4
3,124.1
3,143.1
3,165.5
2,887.3
2,888.9
2,901.5
2,467.6
2,468.5
2,483.3
530.9
531.8
531.5
123.2
123.5
123.3'
126.4
127.7
127.2
123.9
123.2
123.1
i.5ii:i
3, 51 s:e
3,167.2
3,184.0
3,207.4
2,895.1^
2,902.5
2,918.5
2,474.5
2,481.3
2,504.1
531.2
533.4
537.2
122.7
123.4 .
123.3
127.0
127.5
127.4
123.3
123.8
123.4
1,5l6!5
January
February
March
3,547:8
3,217.3
3,247.2
3 258 2
2,927.5
2,944.0
2 940 6
2,495.2
2,510.4
2 507 9
123.6
123.7
124 0
127.8
127.2
128' 0 '
123.2
123.8
123 9
1.536:3
April
May
June
3,55^4
3,288.6
3,271.2
3,280.5
0)2,962.7
2,939.1
2,942.2
©2,529.5
2,506.7
2,510.9
536.0
536.6
536.1
'
124.1
124.1
124.3
128.2
127.9
127.6
124.3
124.7
125.5
1.53U5
E>3,584!i
3,290.0
3,295.5
3,309.9
2,945.4
2,947.7
2,952.6
2,506.7
2,513.0
2,516.9
534.3
535.9
536.7
E)rl25.2
rl25.0
127.9 •
[H)rl29.4
rl28.5
2,956.6.
p2,962.5
2,521.6
p2,527.7
535.7
P534.1
. rl24.6
P125.1
rl27.9
P128.9
(Ann.
!
rate,
bil. dol.)
. (1977 = 100)
(1977 = 100)
(1977 = 100)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised1
1983
January
February
March
October
November
December
....;..
.......
1,358!8
,,„;:;
1984
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
. . . . . . .
October
November
December
1985
July
AugUSt
September
October
November
December
: ..
: ..
....;,.
3,326.2
E>P3,344.7
.
H>539.4 :
536.0
537 6
•124.1
125.6
126.6
rl27.0
127.0
B>pl27.1
.......
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page
"Flash" estimate.
2
DECEMBER 1985
in.
63
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
mm
(IH
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process
PRODUCTION AND
INCOME- Continued
^ Q
Capacity Utilization
Timing Class
L, C, U
82, Capacity
utilization iate,
manufacturing
Orders and Deliveries
L.C.U
84. Capacity
utilization rate,
materials
Yeaf
and
month
L.L.L
(Percent)
L.L.L
Manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
7. Constant
(1972) dollars
6. Current
dollars
(Percent)
CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
L t L, L
8. Manufacturers' new
orders in 1972
dollars, consumer goods
and materials
(Bil. dol.)
L, Lg, U
L.L.L
25. Change in
manufacturers'
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
(Bil. dol.)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
(Bil. dol.)
L,L, L
32. Vendor
performance,
companies receiving slower
deliveries @
(Percent
reporting)
1983
January
February
March . , .
159.5
70.1
70.9
70.7
71.4
72.1
82.16
77.17
78.99
35.17
32.78
33.57
31.29
31.53
31.61
4.06
-0.82
-0.42
291.86
291,04
290.62
41
42
50
April
May
June
71.8
72.6
73.2
72.9
73.8
74.0
82.40
82.87
88.87
34.96
35.04
37.42
32.03
33.06
33.84
2.11
1.28
4.16
292.73
294.01
298.17
52
52
52
July
August
September
74.6
75.7
76.9
75.8
76.8
78.4
87.96
88.80
91.58
36.94
37.26
38.38
34.38
35,02
35.17
3.33
2.53
3.22
301.50
304.04
307.25
52
61
60
October
November
December
77.3
77,3
77,6
79.0
79.3
79.6
95.40
98.04
98.63
39.93
40.97
41.11
36.32
37.07
37.55
5.85
5.13
1.89
313.10
318.24
320.12
64
59
67
January
February
March
79.,?
80.0
80. ft
81.6
82.1
82.5
99.55
101.79
104.45
41.51
42.24
43.18
38.33
38.30
37.21
4.38
5.44
E>8.14
324.50
329.94
338.09
63
68
E>72
April
May
June
80.7
80.7
81.1
82.6
82.6
82.8
97.31
100.95
98.34
40.13
41.65
40.47
37.16
37.42
36.56
1.85
4.06
0.61
339.93
343.99
344.60
71
70
66
July
August
September
81.7
H>81.8
81.3
83.0
E>83.1
82.7
101.98
101.86
98.21
41.98
41.85
40.32
37.51
37.39
36.21
4.14
1.61
0.00
348.73
350.34
350.34
60
54
58
October
November
December
81.1
81.2
80.9
81.3
81.5
81.3
96.51
104.43
101.31
39.65
42.78
41.52
36.98
37.68
37.20
-4.30
2.04
-2.63
346.04
348.08
345.44
52
50
45
January
February
March
80.7
80.4
80.5
81.7
81.5
81.4
105.45
102.47
99.54
43.20
41.86
40,60
[H>39.23
37.82
36.90
3,48
0.75
-2.58
348.92
349.67
347.10
47
48
46
April
May
June
80.5
80.3
80.1
80.9
80.1
80.1
99.84
102.97
106.78
40.70
41.82
43.25
37.47
37.85
37.40
-2,22
0.25
4.12
344.87
345.13
349.25
44
44
44
July
August
September
80.1
r80>7
80.3
79.5
r79.9
r79.4
104.37
E>107.66
106.64
r42.31
[H> 43.64
43.35
r37.64
38.14
38.50
1.89
2.35
2.98
351.14
353.49
H>356.48
44
42
42
October
November
December
r79.8
p80.0
r78.9
p79.1
rlO4.5O
P105.44
r42.27
P42.62
r38.94
P39.16
r-1.98
p-2.27
T354.49
P352.22
46
42
1984
1
1985
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 21.
64
DECEMBER 1985
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
^ Q
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Formation of Business Enterprises
Consumption and Trade
C C, C
c,c,c
Manufacturing and trade sales
Year
and
month
• I FIXED CAPITAL
• i l l INVESTMENT
CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES—Continued
56. Current
dollars
(Mil. dol.)
57. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Mil. dol.)
C,L,C
75. Index of
industrial
production,
consumer
goods
(1977 = 100)
C,l, U
U, L, U
Sales of retail stores
54. Current
dollars
(Mil. dol.)
59. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Mil. dot.)
L,C,C
55. Personal
consumption
expenditures,
automobiles
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
L, L, L
58. Index of
consumer
sentiment ©
L, L,L
12. Index of
net business
formation
(1st Q
1966=100)
(1967 = 100)
L,L,L
13. Number of
new business
incorporations1
(Number)
Revised 2
1983
45,542
45,646
46,534
lY.'b
104.5
92,041
92,159
94,231
70.4
74.6
80 8
111.4
113.3
112 7
49,999
48,296
48 032
155,840
159,750
163,430
106.2
107.8
108.8
95,073
96,827
98,291
46,742
47,464
48,158
8^9
89.1
93.3
92 2
112.0
114.8
116 4
48,903
50,211
50,992
370,864
374,813
380 348
162,746
163,623
165 068
110.3
112.2
113 4
98,651
98,590
99 534
48,169
47,999
48 364
90.2
93.9
90.9
89 9
115.2
114.4
115 8
48,601
52,828
50 445
385,163
389,775
399 089
166,438
168,593
172 020
113.6
113.6
114 4
100,980
102,202
102 867
48,996
49,613
49 815
95^8
89.3
91.1
94 2
118.0
117.8
116 3
50,441
51,642
January
February
March
402,489
402,395
404,612
173,254
172,231
172,733
116.2
116.9
117.3
106,136
105,726
104,525
51,076
50,928
50,228
100.1
97.4
©101.0
115.9
117.2
116.9
53,044
53,591
53,424
April
May
June
408,342
412,524
413,976
174,104
177,265
178,302
118.3
117.7
118.5
107,443
107,941
109,085
51,630
52,020
52,698
104.9
96.1
98.1
95.5
117.5
115.7
117.0
53,933
51,166
54,729
July
August
September
412,233
413,300
412,276
176,575
177,143
176,087
119.1
118.4
51,713
51,509
51,878
104.4
118.3
107,563
107,396
108,373
96.6
99.1
100.9
115.8
119.1
B>119.7
52,092
51,723
52,237
October
November
December
414,243
417,635
421,613
176,602
178,276
180,437
118.5
119.6
119.7
108,974
110,255
110,519
51,991
52,628
52,829
108.2
96.3
95.7
92.9
117.7
116.0
116.6
52,587
53,490
53,503
January
February
March
417,350
418,667
420,776
178,600
179,051
179,626
118.8
119.1
119.8
110,972
112,096
111,854
52,844
53,303
53,011
11CL9
96.0
93.7
93.7
117.8
118.7
116-6
53,266
54,533
55,764
April
May
June
426,472
428,275
418,378
181,644
182,711
178,984
119.5
120.0
120.4
115,351
114,884
113,730
54,539
54,422
53,900
112.5
94.6
91.8
96.5
116.6
114.3
116.5
55,866
r56,124
55,339
July
August
September
422,483
0)430,417
r428,998
180,421
[H)rl84,052
rl83,793
120.1•
rl21.5
rlZ1.7
114,417
116,977
94.0
92.4
92.1
116.3
117.6
rll7.4
p53,926
0)126!i
E>rll9,538
54,149
55,387
[H>r56,466
October
November
December
p426,344
(NA)
pl82,136
(NA)
rll4,546
pll5,854
r54,006
p54,264
88.4
90.9
rll5.3
P116.1
January
February
March
347,323
345,215
350,370
154,166
153,092
155,596
103.0
103.7
April
May
June
353,371
360,313
368,553
July
August
September
October
November
December
1984
102.5
...
1985
rl21.1
H>P121.7
(NA)
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 14, 22, and 23.
Series 13 reached its high value (57,507) in December 1982.
z
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/1 page iii.
DECEMBER 1985
65
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
^ J
Minor Economic
Process
Business Investment Commitments
Timing Class
L.L.L
L, L. L
Contracts and orders for
plant and equipment
Year
and
month
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued
10. Current
dollars
(Bil. dol.)
20. Constant
(1972) dollars
{Bil. dol.)
L, L,L
Manufacturers' new orders,
nondefense capital goods industries
24. Current
dollars
{Bil. dol.)
U. Lg, U
L, C, U
L.L.L
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial buildings'
27. Constant
(1972) dollars
Square feet of
floor space
(Bil. dol.)
(Millions)
Square meters of
floor space2
(Millions)
11. Newly
approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations
(Bil. dol.)
C Lg, Lg
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing
corporations
(Bil. dol.)
1983
January
February
March
23.72
24.07
23.82
11.85
11.77
12.59
20.94
19.18
20.13
10.67
9.68
11.01
61.13
58.88
55.37
5.68
5.47
5.14
20.07
April
May
June
26.07
26.1)7
27.49
13.32
13.08
14.15
22.26
21.50
23.69
11.68
10.91
12.54
57.11
57.60
63.13
5.31
5.35
5.86
2o!87
July
August
September
25.73
27.36
28.91
12.92
13.51
15.04
22.15
22.96
24.99
11.41
11.65
13.38
63.03
63.93
70.18
5.86
5.94
6.52
22^78
6.61
6.79
6.33
24^26
69.60
70.'58
72^7
29.28
28.57
28.59
14.60
13.90
14.04
25.38
24.33
25.23
12.95
12.10
12.62
71.15
73.07
68.14
January
February
March
29.37
30.98
30.97
14.85
15.55
15.75
25.72
27.02
26.76
13.32
13.89
14.00
72.72
64.41
74.95
6.76
5.98
6.96
26.92
April
May
June
30.22
33.30
31.86
14.94
16.56
15.95
26.33
28.56
27.72
13.33
14.61
14.25
79.78
82.49
74.90
7.41
7.66
6.96
0>34*.12
July
August
September
33.16
31.17
31.84
15.62
15.46
1R fiQ
13.57
13.65
13.86
79.55
82.65
75.84
7.39
7.68
7.05
27.31
X v> » U 3
28.14
26.74
27.39
October
November
December
30.31
r31.54
31.15
14.89
rl5.84
14.19
25.26
26.84
26.89
12.83
13.92
12.47
79.04
83.75
86.73
7.34
7.78
8.06
29.10
January
February
March
27.34
33.73
31.77
12.80
0)18.55
15.89
23.63
0)29.49
27.21
11.31
0)16.85
14.06
81.14
82.48
87.41
7.54
7.66
8.12
29.94
April
May
June
29.99
30.03
31.89
14.12
14.77
15.54
25.46
25.59
27.98
12.33
13.02
14.01
91.95
83.99
69.68
8.54
7.80
6.47
r27.56
July
August
September
32.11
32.13
26.68
27.55
29.24
13.21
13.85
14.32
91.89
91.41
0)93.19
8.54
8.49
0>34.52
15.34
15.65
16.40
0)8.66
33.10
P31.68
rl5.72
P15.05
27.09
P26.71
rl3.35
P13.09
92.00
92.61
8.55
8.60
October . . .
November
December
73^50
1984
78.46
89.18
92.06
94.37
1985
October
November
December
99.35
[H)r99.88
P24.41
P95.88
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24.
x
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information
Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
2
Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
66
DECEMBER 1985
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
0 |
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
month
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued
Residential Construction
Commitments and Investment
Business Investment Expenditures
C, Lg, Lg
C Lg, Lg
61. Expenditures for new
plant and equipment by U.S.
nonfarm business
69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and business construction
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
• bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
C, Lg, U
76. Index of
industrial production, business equipment
(1977-100)
C, Lgt C
C, Lg, C
t-g, Lg, Lg
Gross private nonresidential
fixed investment in 1982 dollars
86. Total
87. Structures
88. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised1
Revised1
Revised 1
1983
L, I, L
L, Lr L
28. New private housing
units started
29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits
(Ann. rate,
thous.)
(1967 = 100)
L.L.L
89. Gross private residential
fixed investment
in 1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised1
January .
February
March . .
289.36
310.84
-300.99
311.35
109.2
109.4
110.0
337.5
129.3
208.2
1,605
1,675
1,635
115.2
118.8
119.2
127.2
April
May
June
295.24
312.62
303.44
324.11
111-5
112.4
113.4
346.9
125.4
221.4
1,512
1,780
1,716
126.5
134.8
142.9
145.8
July
August
September . . ,
308.79
318.69
321.45
327.37
114.6
117.7
120.8
363.4
128.6
234.7
1,775
1,907
1,677
145.0
138.4
128.0
161.6
October . .
November
December
325.75
326.58
337.58
352.66
120.7
121.7
123.0
392.9
135.4
257.5
1,696
1,748
1,704
138.6
134.7
131.4
160.4
January .
February
March, .
337.95
344.25
347.76
360.86
127.1
128.5
130.4
398.8
138.8
260.0
1,933
0)2,208
1,700
146.7
0)157.6
138.7
166.6
April . .
May ..
June . .
349.97
360.32
372.34
380.00
131.2
133.3
135.5
426.8
148.5
278.3
1,949
1,787
1,837
142.6
140.7
143.9
170.0
July
August . .
September
361.48
372.18
379.37
393.90
1-37.0
139.1
139.2
437.6
151.6
286.0
1,730
1,590
1,669
126.9
123.0
121.0
170.8
October . . .
November ,
December .
368.29
387.81
392.33
E>408.82
139.1
139.8
138.4
457,8
156.0
301.9
1,564
1,600
1,630
117.8
128.9
127.5
166.0
January .
February
March . .
371.16
376.70
390.74
407.17
140.4
140.0
140,2
457.2.
163.2
293.9
1,849
1,647
1,889
130,4
129.5
138.8
166.7
April .
May .
June ,
387.83
403.73
398.22
403.24
142.0
141.9
140.7
470.9
165.3
305.6
1,933
1,681
1,701
135.9
141.8
136.5
169.6
July . . . .
August . .
September
E>388.90-
398.04
T408.47
r39.7.76
141.3
E>143.0
r142.1
H>473.7
0)165,8
0)307.9
1,663
1,740
rl,616
135.1
142.3
rl44.2
0)173.1
October . .
November
December
P408.64
ra388.98
rHl.l
P141.9
rl,761
pi,547
134.6
132.5
1984
1
1985
(NA)
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25.
l
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.'
Anticipated expenditures for 1986: 1st quarter, 402.13; 2d quarter, 405.99.
DECEMBER 1985
67
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
NVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Minor Economic
Process
Inventory Investment
Timing Class
Year
and
month
L.L.L
L.L.L
L, L, I,
30. Change in
business inventories in 1982
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
36. Change in mfg. and trade
inventories on hand and on
order in 1972 dollars
Smoothed'
Actual
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Inventories on Hand and on Order
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
31. Change
in mfg. and
trade inventories, book
value
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L.L.L
38. Change in
mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order
(Bil. dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Manufacturing and trade
inventories
71. Book
value
(Bil. dol.)
Revised2
-42.2
-14.18
2.20
-15.07
-24.16
-17.24
-9.98
-3.7
2.99
9.18
0.82
-6.16
-2.13
1.68
July
August
September . . .
1.4
16.79
18.22
12.22
6.63
10.44
13.84
10.6
30.2
39.1
October
November . . .
December . . .
22.6
20.28
19.19
13.51
16.32
17.07
17.45
24.8
36.6
48.7
April
May
June
70. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Bil. dol.)
Revised
1983
January
February
March
Lg, Lg, Lg
-30.0
-7.4
-38.6
2.3
7.5
8.9
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
L, Lg, Lg
65. Manufacturers' inventories,
finished
goods, book
value
77. Ratio,
mfg. and
trade inventories to
sales in
1972 dollars
78. Mfrs.1
inventories,
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order
(Ratio)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
2
-0.04
1.00
0.54
506.71
506.10
502.88
579.18
578.34
574.36
84.37
83.74
82.68
1.67
1.68
1.65
191.29
192.29
192.83
-0.02
0.64
2.09
503.07
503.70
504.44
574.25
574.62
574.30
82.32
82.06
81.86
1.64
1.60
1.56
192.81
193.45
195.54
505.33
507.85
511.10
574.18
575.74
577.18
82.14
81.70
81.45
1.57
1.57
1.56
197.31
200.27
201.84
513.17
516.22
520.28
577.97
580.79
583.93
81.20
81.55
80.96
1.51
204.86
206.82
208.73
524.73
532.14
538.82
586.88
593.30
597.76
81.16
81.90
83.14
211.54
214.36
216.71
603.95
608.83
610.26
84.14
85.11
86.38
1.51
218.52
220.18
219.97
1.54
1,55
1.57
©222.58
222.40
222.35
H>3.02
1984
January
February
March
25.36
18.87
24.78
31.46
H>88,
' 80,
66.0
39.68
28.45
-6.72
B>35.45
34.32
25.82
85.3
54.9
23.0
1.81
1.66
-0.22
545.93
550.50
552.42
July
August
September . . .
64.9
27.41
19.49
16.56
18.42
14.89
17.27
57.0
54.6
45.1
2.61
-0.18
-0.05
557.17
561.72
565.48
614.50
619.87
623.37
86.95
87.80
88.55
October
November . . .
December . . .
36.1
8.39
0.07
-5.72
17.98
11.58
4.63
39.3
29.9
26.3
-1.06
568.75
571.24
573.43
626.19
628.38
630.26
88.89
89.27
89.69
1.57
1.56
1.55
219.92
218.36
217.30
.6
April
May
June
27.55
[H>47.38
53,
1985
January
February
March
15.8
22.68
19.98
-5.82
3.30
9.00
12.30
28.4
37.
-2.
0.65
-0.48
-3.07
575.80
578.94
578.77
631.86
635.01
634.00
89.69
89.86
90.12
1.57
1.58
1.57
217.95
317.47
214.40
April
May
June
15.1
2.94
-:'.3.44
4.52
8.99
0.13
-3.72
17.2
-29.0
22.6
-0.94
-1.54
1.68
580.20
577.78
579.66
635.80
634.55
635.74
90.12
0)90.13
89.87
1.56
1.55
R>1.58
213.46
211.93
213.61
July
August
September . . .
-l.E
1.12
r-10,04
r0.43
-2.30
r-2.03
r-2.15
5.4
-23.2
r8.8
-0.46
0.31
-0.11
580.12
578.18
r578.92
636.51
635.74
636.12
89.26
88.86
88.26
1.57
1.54
rl.54
213.15
213.46
213.35
pi].62
p-1.08
(NA)
P37.4
(NA)
p-0.34
(NA)
|H>p582.03
(NA)
E>p638.02
(NA)
87.58
(NA)
pi.56
(NA)
P213.69
October
November . . .
December . . .
(NA)
(NA)
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 15, 2), and 27.
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
"See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
1
68
DECEMBER 1985
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
Q
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Stock
Sensitive Commodity Prices
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
month
L.L.L
98. Change in
producer prices
for 28 sensitive
crude and
intermediate
'
materials
(Percent)
U,L,L
23. Index of
spot market
prices, raw
industrial,
materials l @
Profits and Profit Margins
Prices
L.L.L
L, L, L
99. Change in sensitive materials
prices
2
Actual
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Smoothed
19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks ©
L.L.L
L, L, L
Corporate profits after tax
L.C.L
L.C.L
Corporate profits after tax
with IVA and CCAdj3
L.L.L
22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after
16. Current
dollars
18. Constant
79. Current
80. Constant
tax to corpo-
(1982) dollars
dollars
(1982) dollars
rate domestic
income
(1967 = 100)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(1941-43-10)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
Revised 4
Revised 4
Revised 4
Revised 4
Revised 4
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Percent)
1983
E)2.53
1.72
232.1
241.3
248.8
1.40
E>2.49
1.80
-0.04
0.78
1.61
144.27
146.80
151.88
108^2
106.5
1I4.*5
112.8
5.*3
0.04
1.62
2.28
253.2
251.5
250.5
0.53
0.66
1.09
0)1.75
1.30
0.88
157.71
164.10
166.39
126.'0
12^3
132li
130*.5
6\i
0.81
1.24
-0.43
256.0
265.2
267.9
1.04
1.71
0.08
0.85
1.10
1.11
166.96
162.42
167.16
141 ".3
139^5
144^3
142'.7
H>6.6
1.60
1.08
0.84
273.4
279.8
282,4
1.43
1.24
0.70
1.01
1.00
1.02
167.65
165.23
164.36
143.6
140.9
163.6
161.5
6.5
-1.09
0.97
0.29
283.6
283.6
289,2
-0.45
0.53
0.73
0.81
0.38
0.26
166.39
157.25
157.44
H>14&\3
H>144.*4
168.'9
165.3
6\5
-0.29
-0.71
-1.04
288.6
S>289.5
286.2
-0.20
-0.28
-0.89
0.31
0.22
-0.19
157.60
156.55
153.12
146.7
141.8
177!l
172^4
6\4
June
July
August
September
-1.54
-1.20
0 54
280,1
275.6
274.0
-1.43
-1.12
0 13
-0.66
-1.01
-0 98
151.08
164.42
166 11
140 '.3
134^2
183.8
i77]g
5^8
-0.10
0.17
-0.40
266.4
268.3
261.9
-0.88
0.30
-0.93
-0.72
-0.39
-0 33
164.82
166.27
164 48
Ho! 6
133^5
188.8
181* 7
s'.h
-0.71
-1.72
-0*62
255.8
253.1
252.4
-1.06
-1.20
-0.39
-0.53
-0.81
-0.97
171.61
180.88
179.42
136!e
128.7
198.3
i9o!6
s'.s
-0.28
0.94
0 00
257.1
252.0
242 9
0.39
-0.09
-1 OQ
-0.64
-0.22
-0.15
180.62
184.90
188.89
136\4
127.6
205'.8
196.4
5.4
rO.OO
r-0.45
-0.62
240.7
239.8
238.0
r-0.26
r-0.35
-0.53
r-0.37
-0.52
r-0.47
192.54
188.31
184.06
14l!i
131-7
B>221.7
[H>2li!4
5.7
236.9
234.5
234.4
0.67
-0.44
r-0.22
-0.08
186.18
E>197.45
6
206.78
1.56
January
February
March
April
May
June
...
July
August
September
October
November
December
1984
January
February
March
April
May
October
. . .
November
December
1985
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
1.53
-0.24
October
November
December
5
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29.
lj
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
See footnote 1 on page 68. 3IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. "See "New Features and Changes
for This Issue," page. iii. 5Average. for December 1-19. 6Average for December 4, 11, and 18.
2
DECEMBER 1985
69
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
1983
U, L, L
L, L, L
81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after
tax with IVA
and CCAdj to
corp. domestic
income'
15. Profits after
taxes per dollar
of sales, manufacturing corporations
(Percent)
(Cents)
Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share
Cash Flows
Profits and Profit Margins—Continued
Timing Class
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Continued
L, L, L
26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit
labor cost,
nonfarm business sector
(1977 = 100)
Revised2
L.L.L
L.L.L
Corporate net cash flow
34. Current
dollars
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
63. Index of
unit labor cost,
business sector
68. Labor cost
per unit of real
gross domestic
product, nonfinancial corporations
35. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dor.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. d o l l
Revised2
Revised2
(1977 = 100)
(Dollars)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg. Lg, Lg
62. Index of labor cost per unit
of output, manufacturing
Actual data
(1967-100)
Actual data
as a percent
of trend
64, Compensation of em*
ployees as a
percent of national income
(Percent)
(Percent)
Revised2
Revised2
January
February
March
5.7
3.3
96.4
290.5
288.0
156.8
0.682
221.9
220.2
219.0
100.3
99.0
98,0
75.4
April
May
June
6.5
4.0
97.9
315.0
313.6
155.4
0.678
218.4
216.7
216.5
97.3
96.1
95.6
74.7
July
August
September . . .
6.8
4,2
98.7
338.1
336.8
155.1
0.676
214.3
212.0
211.0
94.1
92.7
91.8
74.3
October
November . .
December . .
7.6
4.5
98.8
347.5
345.8
156.8
0.680
211.9
213.5
215.1
91.8
92.0
92.3
73.8
January
February
March
7.7
4.9
98.7
357.8
355.1
157.7
0.679
213.0
213.1
212.4
90.9
90.5
89.8
72.8
April .
May .
June .
8.1
E>4.9
99.8
360.1
355.8
156.5
0.682
212.9
212.5
211.7
89.6
89.0
88.2
73.0
July
August
September . , ,
8.2
4.4
99.7
364.6
358.6
•158.0
0.691
210.5
210.8
211.3
87.3
87.0
86.8
73.1
October
November . . ,
December . , .
8.4
4.3
B>1OO.1
371.6
364.2
158.4
0.697
212.1
213.2
215.6
86.7
86.8
87.3
73.4
4.2
99.4
379.9
372.6
161.9
0.703
0)216.4
216.0
216.1
87.2
86.7
86.3
73.5
1984
1985
January .
February
March . .
April
May
June
9.0
3.7
99.6
387.3
381.0
162.6
0.70.9
215.1
215.3
215.8
July . . . .
August . .
September
9.8
p3.7
r99.6
0)404.0
0)396.9
[H>rl63.2
0)0.709
215.4
r214.0
r214.9
85.5
85.2
85.0
84.4
r83.4
r83.4
r216.2
P216.0
r83.5
P83.0
October . .
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 29, ind 30.
X
IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment,
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
70
DECEMBER 1985
73.8
0)73.9
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
H J
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
MONEY AND CREDIT
Money
L, L, L
85. Change
in money
supply M l
Year
and
month
(Percent)
L, C, U
102. Change
in money
supply M2
(Percent)
L, I L
Velocity of Money
L.UL
L, L,L
104. Change
in total liquid
assets
105. Money
supply Ml in
1972 dollars
106. Money
supply M2 in
1972 dollars
(Percent)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bit. dol.)
C.C.C
Credit Flows
C, Lg, C
107. Ratio,
gross national
product to '
money supply
ML
108, Ratio,
personal income
to money supply
M2
(Ratio)
(Ratio)
1
Revised
L.L.L
L.L.L
33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by financial
institutions and
fife insurance
companies
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
112. Net change
in business loans
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1
Revised
1983
January .
February
March . .
0.75
1.18
1.16
E>2.78
1.83
0.82
Dl.25
0.98
0.74
206.7
209.2
211.4
857.2
873.5
879.7
6.669
1.369
1.342
1.340
45.77
40.99
-40.55
46.25
-1.91
10.98
April . . .
May . . .
June . . .
0.69
1.32
0.81
0.70
0.78
0.68
0.87
0.66
0.82
211.5
213.4
214.6
880.0
883,2
887.1
6.664
1.33-9
1.343
1.341
1.30
-38.76
32.99
-46.07
-45.98
3.02
July . . . .
August . .
September
0.96
0.70
0.41
0.61
0.52
0.63
1.01
0.88
0.71
215.8
216.6
216.7
889.0
890.6
893.0
6.637
1.340
1.335
1.338
63.30
70.21
5.22
-3.26
14.05
-0.50
October
November . . ,
December . . .
0,67
0.42
0.34
0.90
0.64
0.49
0.53
0.89
1.13
217.4
217.6
217.7
898.0
900.7
902.4
6.719
1.344
1.347
1.353
81.37
78.73
110.02
18.46
53.30
0.64
0.53
0.58
0.61
0.67
0.55
0.72
0.79
1.17
217.7
218.0
218.7
902.4
904.8
907.1
6.881
1.364
1.371
E> 1.372
r77.90
r89.02
rlO9.56
0.16
55.91
B>110.20
0.35
0.61
0.88
0.54
0.63
0.63
0.97
1.09
1.15
218.
219.
221.0
908.2
912.4
916.3
6.920
371
365
1.365
rl29.14
rl31.18
rll2.06
87.13
81.90
93.26
July
August
September . . .
-0.07
0.37
0.47
0.48
0.55
0.68
1.05
0.79
0.89
220.1
220.0
220.3
917.8
919.0
922.0
6.943
1.370
1.371
1.371
rll3.72
rlO8.52
[H>rl39.48
38.29
15.88
42.76
October
November . . .
December . . .
-0.58
1.00
0.85
0.47
1.16
1.08
0.62
K3.84
rl.10
218.4
220.1
221.5
923.
932.
940.4
[0)6.960
1.366
1.357
1.352
r86.96
r70.18
r29.88
52.49
57.98
8.10
; 0.75
1.19
0.47
1.15
0.92
0.36
0.64
0.88
0.77
222.7
224.6
224.6
949.4
954.8
953.7
6.896
1.341
1.341
1.341
86.58
44.72
100.56
38.95
21.36
32.24
0.49
-0.08
0.71
1.15
rO.06
r0.49
r0.82
224.8
227.0
230.2
949.4
954.1
962.9
6.798
1.355
1.338
1.327
90.41
66.08
77.05
14.71
• 32.30
-53.53
0.72
0.94
rO.59
r0.51
231.6
r235.0
236.9
968.0
975.3
E>r979.2
6.645
1.321
1.311
1.309
r55.54
r72.76
r64.87
r-0.76
r-12.22
r0.18
p0.55
(NA)
r235.9
Dp237.2
977.9
P977.9
1.313
pi.313
P115.01
(NA)
r74.11
P71.02
1984
January
February
March
April
May
June
;
1985
January
February . . . .
March . . . . . .
April
May
June
:
1.17
1.65
July
August . . . . ' .
September . , .
October
November . . .
December . . :
0.78
(H>rl.70
r0.99
r-0.13
pi.
10
2
1.89
rl.03
0.83
23.57
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32.
1
See
2
"New Features and Changes for This Issue/ page i i i .
Average for weeks ended December 2 and 9.
DECEMBER 1985
71
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q
Minor Economic
Process . .
Year
and
month
L,L,L
113. Net change
in consumer
installment
credit
(Ann. rah,
bil. dol.)
L. Lr L
L.L.L
111. Change in
business and
consumer credit
outstanding
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Bank Reserves
Credit Difficulties
Credit Flows—Continued
Timing Class
MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued
110. Funds
raised by private
nonfinancial
borrowers in
credit markets
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
L.L.L
14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures ©
(Mil. dol.)
IM
U,L
39. Percent
of consumer
installment
loans delinquent 30 days
and over
(Percent)
93. Free
reserves ©
(Mil. dol.)
Interest Rates
L. Lg, U
94. Member
bank borrowings from the
Federal
Reserve @
(Mil. dol.)
L. Lg- Lg
119. Federal
funds rate ©
(Percent)
C Lg. Lg
114. Discount
rate on new
issues of 91-day
Treasury bills ©
(Percent)
1983
January
February
March
23.30
21.24
40.02
8.4
2.9
0.1
295,504
2,158.1
1,086.4
1,154.7
April
May
June
33.78
35.33
47.28
-0.6
-3.8
5.5
396,432
July
August
September . . ,
53.48
54.48
44.68
8.9
9.9
2.6
October
November . . .
December . . .
73.66
69.02
76.45
2.24
2.23
2.22
46
-122
-415
500
557
852
8.51
8.77
7.81
8.13
8.30
1,125.6
920.0
2,188.6
1.92
-517
-453
-1,234
993
902
1,714
8.80
8.63
8.98
8.25
8.19
8.82
396,536
E>829.2
1,353.1
947.2
1.95
1.90
1.88
-875
-1,127
-943
1,382
1,573
1,441
9.37
9.56
9.45
9.12
9.39
9.05
8.6
11.7
14.3
525,532
1,816.8
1,624.5
868.5
1.94
-332
-383
-184
837
912
745
9.48
9.34
9.47
8.71
8.71
8.96
63.20
74.26
71.15
10.3
15.1
20.3
416,056
1,783.3
1,713.1
3,479.7
1.84
©1.78
1.85
-102
376
-241
715
567
952
9.56
9.59
9.91
8.93
9.03
9.44
81.50
109.12
84.98
20.0
E>24.0
20.6
521,868
2,429.4
3,074.3
3,427.4
06
96
02
-742
-2,408
-2,526
1,234
2,988
3,300
10.29
10.32
11.06
9.69
9.90
9.94
July
August
September . . .
77.77
72.26
59.78
13.7
11.8
17.1
407,008
2,783.7
1,968.7
2,045.6
96
93
2.10
311
328
-6,614
5,924
E>8,017
7,242
11.23
©11.64
11.30
10.13
©10.49
10.41
October
November . . .
December . . ,
67.57
72.96
81.83
11.1
12.1
6.4
(NA)
0)585,732
1.91
1.97
2.09
-5,397
-3,924
-2,333
6,017
4,617
3,186
9.99
9.43
8.38
9.97
8.79
8.16
January
February
March
86.68
108.49
100.10
13.9
9.2
13.3
r446,688
20
19
40
-650
-386
-827
1,395
1,289
1,593
8.35
8.50
8.58
7.76
8.22
8.57
April
May
June
99.24
108.50
62.72
11.5
11.3
3.6
r470,036
38
25
33
-585
-530
-300
1,323
1,334
1,205
8.27
7.97
7.53
8.00
56
01
July
August
September . . .
74.96
r68.71
[H>rl38.37
r7.8
r8.4
r9.0
p510,560
2.29
2.35
2.39
-252
-246
-623
1,107
1,073
1,289
7.88
7.90
7.92
05
18
08
October
November . . .
December . . .
79.54
(NA)
rl5.6
pll.l
(NA)
r-434
p-814
1,187
pl.741
1984
January
February
March
April
May
June
1985
7.99
8.05
8.15
X
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 32, 33, and 34.
l
Average for weeks ended December 4, 11, 18, and 25.
2
Average for weeks ended December 5;1 12, 19, and 26.
72
DECEMBER 1985
2
17
20
7.06
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
^ |
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
month
MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued
Interest Rates—Continued
Lg, Lgr Lg
C Lg, Lg
U, Lg, Lg
116. Yield on
new issues of
high-grade
corporate
bonds ©
115. Yield on
long-term
Treasury
bonds ©
117. Yield on
municipal
bonds, 20bond average ©
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
Outstanding Debt
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
118. Secondary
market yields
onFHA
mortgages ®
67. Bank rates
on short-term
business
loans ©
(Percent)
(Percent)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
109. Average
prime rate
charged by
banks ©
66. Consumer
installment
credit outstanding
(Percent)
(Mil. dot.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
Commercial and industrial
loans outstanding
72. Current
dollars
(Mil. dol.)
101. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Mil. dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
95. Ratio,
consumer installment credit
outstanding
to personal
income
(Percent)
Revised1
1983
January
February
March
12.04
12.11
11.81
10.37
10.60
10.34
9.50
9.58
9.20
12.87
12.65
12.68
lo!2O
11.16
10.98
10.50
330,217
331,987
335,322
268,553
268,394
269,309
106,653
106,253
106,699
12.06
12.09
12.13
April
May
June
10.19
10.21
10.64
9.05
9.11
9.52
12.50
12.41
12.96
loisi
10.50
10.50
....
11.58
11.24
11.90
10.50
338,137
341,085
345,025
265,470
261,638
261,890
105,178
103,373
103,147
12.16
12.14
12 21
July . . . .
August
September
12.46
12.89
12.68
11.10
11.42
11.26
9.53
9.72
9.58
14.23
13.78
13.55
ll!69
10.50
10.89
11.00
349,482
354,022
357,745
261,618
262,789
262,747
102,756
102,732
102,515
12.30
12.44
12.47
October
November
December
12.54
12.86
12.87
11.21
11.32
11.44
9.66
9.75
9.89
13.23
13.23
13.25
10^95
11.00
11.00
11.00
363,883
369,635
376,006
261,999
263,537
267,979
101,985
102,743
104,272
12.51
12.60
12.70
12.65
12.80
13.36
11.29
11.44
11.90
9.63
9.64
9.93
13.08
13.20
13.68
ll!66
11.00
11.00
11.21
381,273
387,461
393,390
267,992
272,651
281,834
103,632
105,108
107,941
12.69
12.75
12.87
13.64
14.41
0)14.49
12.17
12.89
0)13.00
9.96
10.49
12*45
0)10.67
11.93
12.39
12.60
400,182
409,275
416,357
289,095
295,920
303,692
110,595
113,163
116,179
13.02
13.29
13.44
September
14.25
13.54
13.37
12.82
12.23
11.97
10.42
9.99
10.10
14.58
14.21
13.99
0)13^29
13.00
E>13.00
12.97
422,838
428,860
433,842
306,883
308,206
311,769
117,176
118,132
120,050
13.53
13.64
13.71
October
November
December
13.02
12.40
12.47
11.66
11.25
11.21
10.25
10.17
9.95
13.43
12.90
12.99
11.29
12.58
11.77
11.06
439,473
445,553
452,372
316,143
320,975
321,650
121,687
123,215
123,664
13.88
13.99
14.10
January
February
March
12.46
12.39
12 85
11.15
11.35
11 78
9.51
9.65
9 77
13.01
13.27
13 43
io!io
10.61
10.50
10 50
459,595
468,636
476 978
324,896
326,676
329 363
125,008
125,887
127 118
14.29
14.43
1A fid.
April
May
June
12.45
11.85
11.33
11.42
10.96
10.36
9.42
9.01
8.69
12.97
12.28
11.89
9^90
10.50
10.31
9.78
485,248
494,290
499,517
330,589
333,281
328,820
127,296
128,136
126,664
14.76
15.11
15.23
July
August
September
11.28
11.61
11.66
10.51
10,59
10.67
8.81
9.08
9.27
12.12
11.99
12.04
9.27
9.50
9.50
9.50
505,764
r511,490
r523,021
330,784
r330,721
r329,703
127,519
rl28,236
rl28,389
15.37
15.52
15.80
11.51
11.17
2
10.49
10.56
10.08
2
9.69
9.08
8.54
3
8.45
11.87
11.28
0)529,649
r335,879
(NA) 0>p341,797
rl29,884
0)pl31,46O
0)P15.92
(NA)
1984
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
13.80
0)15.01
14.91
1985
October . . . . . . . . .
November
December
9^31
9.50
9.50
"9.50 •
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
'Average for weeks ended December 6, 13, and 20.
3
Average for weeks ended December 5, 12, and 17.
"•Average for December 1 through 26,
DECEMBER 1985
73
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Year
and
month
950. Twelve leading
indicator components
(series 1,5,8, 12,19,
20, 29, 32, 36, 99, 106,
111)
1-month
span
6-month
span
951. Four roughly
coincident indicator
components (series
41, 47, 51, 57)
1-month
span
952. Six lagging
indicator components
(series 62,77, 91,95,
101, 109)
6-month
span
1-month
span
6-month
span
961. Average weekly
hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers,
20 manufacturing
industries
1-month
9-month
span
962. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, 51
areasl
1-month
span
9-month
span
963. Employees on
private nonagricultural
payrolls, 186
industries
1-month
span
6-month
span
1983
January
February . . .
March
75.0
70.8
66.7
100.0
100.0
100.0,
100.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
33.3
50.0
25.0
16.7
16.7
16.7
82.5
15.0
100.0
90.0
90.0
87.5
68.6
57.8
35.3
98.0
96.1
100.0
52.2
45.9
59.7
50.0
62.4
65.7
April
May
June
87.5
70.8
87,5
91.7
100.0
91.7
87.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
8.3
25.0
16.7
16.7
33.3
95.0
52.5
92.5
95.0
90.0
90.0
80.4
48.0
78.4
84.3
90.2
92,2
70.0
68.9
63.0
67.8
74.3
78.4
July
August . . . .
September . .
62.5
62.5
66.7
91.
83.
66.
75.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
58,
58,
16.
33.3
41.7
66.7
77.
67.
87.
95.0
95.0
9.5.0
70.6
7.8
96.1
88.2
94.1
80.4
72.7
69.5
73.2
79.
79,
78.9
October . . . .
November . .
December , .
75.0
45.8
62.5
83.
83.
79.2
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
41.
58,
.75.0
66.7
66.7
66.7
52,
42.
50.0
100.0
87.5
95.0
58.8
35.3
60.8
84.3
86.3
68.6
74.1
66.8
68.9
79.2
79.7
78.4
January .
February
March . .
58.3
70.8
50.0
75.0
70.8
62.5
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
8.3
75.0
75.0
66.7
66.7
75.0
70.0
82.5
10.0
80.0
42.5
37.5
36. 3
72, 5
68, 6
76.5
90.2
56.9
67.3
72.7
66.8
79.2
77.8
77.3
April .
May .
June .
58.3
41.7
25.0
25.0
25.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
83.3
66.7
66.7
83.3
83.3
83.3
95.0
2.5
30.0
27.5
47.5
15.0
43.1
29.4
92.2
66.7
70.6
38.2
67.3
60,
64,
75.4
July
August
September . . ,
16.7
37.5
75.0
25.0
33.3
29.2
75.0
87.5
50.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
83.3
75.0
66.7
83.
66,
66.
37.5
45.0
72.5
10.0
45.0
7.5
19.6
51.0
74.5
27.5
37.3
13.7
65,
58,
48,
63.2
64.1
67.0
October
November . . .
December . . .
33.3
70.8
41.7
66,7
50.0
53.0
62.5
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
58,
50.
66.7
66.
66.
58.3
25.0
57.5
62.5
5.0
27.5
17.5
7.8
70.6
72.5
33.3
15.7
31.4
66.
55,
63.5
59.7
57.6
60.3
70.8
50.0
41.7
58.3
50.0
50.0
50.0
100,0
r75.O
100.0
100.0
r75.0
66.7
50.0
50.0
50.0
50.0
66.7
32.5
. 5.0
85.0
40.0
32.5
40.0
13.
70,
84.
33.3
45.1
64.7
57.6
50.3
55.9
52.2
49.5
44.3
.37.5
70.8
.50.0
41.7
58.3
75.0
100.0
62.5
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
41.7
50.0
33.3
41.7
50.0
50.0
12.5
75.0
67.5
55.0
62.5
r62.5
r66.7
58.8
44.6
50.3
47.0
44.6
44.3
75.0
72.7
50,0
100,0
r50.0
75.0
3
100.0
1984
1985
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September . . .
54.2
r75.0
r62.5
October
November . . .
December . . .
62.5
2
45.5
2
50.0
3
100.0
41,
41,
58.3
"25.0
75.0
30.0
87.5
r77.5
91.7
"37.5
r67.5
P37.5
P80.0
19.6
45.1
86.3
P68.6
r59.8
54.9
56.8
r45.7
P23.5
(NA)
r63.0
p60.3
9.8
82.4
(NA)
r42.4
r46.2
P50.0
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components lising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter.
Series are.seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ®, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 36.
figures are the percent o£ components declining.
Excludes series 36, for which data are not available.
3
Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.
''Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.
74
DECEMBER 1985
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
964. Manufacturers'
new orders, 34
durable goods industries
and
month
1-month
span
9-month
span
966. Industrial production, 24 industries
965. Newly approved
capital appropriations
in 1972 dollars, 17
manufacturing
industries
1-quarter
span
4-Q moving
average
1-month
span
6-month
span
967. Spot market
prices, 13 raw
industrial materials ©
1-month
span
9-month
span
968. Stock prices, 500
common s t o c k s 1 ©
1-month
span
9-mohth
span
960. Net profits,
manufacturing, about
600 companies1©
(4-quarter span)
1983
January
February
March . . . : . .
72.1
57.4
61.8
88.2
82.4
85.3
45
April
May
June
79.4
63.2
69.1
86.8
88.2
91.2
53
July
August
September . . .
55.9
61.8
70.6
97.1
91.2
91.2
50
October
November . . .
December . . .
63.2
64.7
58.8
97.1
94.1
91.2
59
January
February
March
67.6
50.0
52.9
91.2
79.4
85.3
71
April
May
June
35.3
58.8
26.5
75.0
52.9
41.2
59
July
August
September . . .
55.9
51.5
41.2
44.1
61.8
52.9
36
October
November . . .
December . . .
55.9
55.9
52.9
29.4
55.9
44.1
65
January
February
March
52.9
35.3
55.9
45.6
63.2
52.9
56
April
May . . . . . . .
June . . . . . . .
47.1
60.3
61.8
64.7
54.4
r50.0
July
August
September . . .
55.9
55.9
45,6
p70.6
83.3
91.7
95.8
61.5
76.9
57.7
80.8
61.5
57.7
63.3
59.2
73.5
100.0
98.0
93.9
71
56
83.3
62.5
66.7
83.3
95.8
100.0
65.4
46.2
46.2
80.8
96.2
88.5
81.6
91.8
65.3
89.8
87.5
86.5
74
52
79.2
77.1
70.8
95.8
75.0
91.7
95.8
95.8
89.6
57.7
73.1
57.7
88.5
80.8
73.1
52.0
30.6
85.4
91.5
80.9
72.3
82
59
95.8
91.7
91.7
69.2
76.9
42.3
80.8
80.8
73.1
47.9
57.4
61:7
38.3
40.4
34.0
81
60
60.4
58.3
58.3
95.8
91.7
87.5
38.5
61.5
65.4
73.1
65.4
42.3
52.1
10.6
60.6
41.5
25,5
58.7
76
56
87
91
64
83.3
66.7
70.8
50.0
50.0
42.3
34.6
30.8
30.8
43.6
36.2
36.2
30.4
37.0
37.0
76
58
66.7
43.8
66.7
66,
62,
50.0
34.6
46.2
46.2
23.1
15.4
15.4
34.8
93.5
73.9
60.9
54.3
65.2
68
54
79.2
43.8
45.8
45.8
30.8
57.7
19.2
15.4
19.2
34.6
34.8
78.3
26.1
82,
82,
91.3
68
r49
47.9
62.5
41.7
58.3
62.
66,
23.1
38.5
57.7
23.1
23.1
23.1
89.1
93.5
41.3
77.8
73.3
85.6
70
p53
50.0
52.1
66.7
r39
45.8
72.9
56.3
62.5
75.0
r62.5
76.9
38.5
23.1
23.1
38.5
46.2
57.6
66.7
75.6
77.8
82.2
73.3
p53
54.2
r75,0
r45.8
r58.3
p54.2
38.5
46.2
46.2
38.5
46.2
76.7
30.0
11.1
75.6
1984
1985
October
November . .
December . .
r57.4
p55.9
45.8
P64.6
42.3
23.1
3
42.3
3
55.6'
88.9
See note on page 74.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 37.
x
Based on 49 industries through August 1983, on 48 industries through October 1983, on 47 industries through June 1984, on 46 industries
through April 1985? and on 45 industries thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the
source.
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc.
3
Based on average for December 3, 10, and 17.
DECEMBER 1985
75
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Q j
970. Expenditures tor new plant and equipment
Year
by U.S. nonfarm business, 21 industries
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
971. New orders, manufacturing1©
972. Net profits, manufacturing
and trade' ©
Actual
Actual
973. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade' ©
and
quarter
a. Actual
expenditures
c. Early
projections
b. Later
projections
(4-Q span)
(1-Q span)
(1-Q span)
(1-Q spiin)
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
Actual
Anticipated
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1983
....
38.1
50.0
81,0
95,2
First quarter . . .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter . . . . .
Fourth quarter
88.1
71.4
8 8 . .1
61.9
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
47. 6
42 .9
66
66
62
64
66
68
66. 7
90. 5
54 . 8
76 . 2
74
78
77
82
66
71
73
80
74
74
78
84
81. 0
76 .2
84
85
74
81
80
86
1984
76. 2
57 .1
90
88
80
84
85
88
64. 3
76. 2
71. 4
78 . 6
92 . 9
54 . 8
86
84
79
91
90
88
79
74
74
86
88
84
84
82
80
90
90
88
52.
76.
61.
47.
47 . 6
85 . 7
76 . 2
42 . 9
74
74
76
82
84
82
80
70
69
70
80
81
81
78
76
74
75
84
84
84
81
1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
57.1
73.8
61.9
. . .
4
2
9
6
1986
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
47 .6
82
78
81
....
....
1
fl
Year
and
quarter
974. Number of employees,
manufacturing and tode1 ©
975. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and trade 1 ©
Actual
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
977. Selling prices, wholesale
976. Selling prices, manufacturing1 ©
trade1©
Actual
Actual
Anticipated
Anticipated
978. Selling prices, retail
trade1©
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
{4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
t53
68
64
68
72
68
72
69
72
69
67
70
71
72
76
75
72
72
68
70
70
70
74
74
68
68
66
66
60
66
63
66
65
70
67
62
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1983
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
48
54
58
61
50
56
59
60
54
59
62
68
52
58
62
64
61
60
65
68
65
66
70
69
65
63
62
62
62
64
64
62
72
70
70
70
66
70
70
66
74
70
70
68
74
76
76
72
60
58
58
60
62
59
58
66
63
60
64
66
62
58
65
62
61
70
70
64
62
(52
t58
'0
1984
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
?3
(59
(55
(55
1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
{ 54
i50
i59
1986
59
First quarter
Second quarter
58
62
64
62
....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
, . . .
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those,
indicated b y © , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 38.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc. Dun §
Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives.
76
DECEMBER 1985
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE-Continued
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change
Diffusion index components
1985
April
May
June
August
July
September
October
November
961. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS OF PRODUCTION OR NONSUPERVISORY WORKERS, MANUFACTURING '
(Hours)
All manufacturing industries
40.2
40.4
40.4
40.3
40.6
40.7
40.7
40.7
Percent rising of 20 components .
(12)
(75)
(68)
(30)
(88)
(78)
(68)
(38)
39.5
39.3
39.8
33.9
40.1
38.9
39.7
38.8
40.0
39.2
40.1
r39.4
40.3
39.3
40.0
39.3
Stone, clay, and glass products.
Primary metal industries
42.0
41.0
42.1
41.2
41.9
41.6
42.0
41.4
42.0
41.7
42.0
41.5
42.2
41.8
41.7
42.0
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
41.1
41.2
41.1
41.4
41.3
41.6
41.3
41.3
41.4
41.6
r41.6
41.6
41.5
41.6
41.3
41.5
Electric and electronic equipment
Transportation equipment
40.2
42.3
40.4
42.6
40.6
42.3
40.3
42.5
40.7
42.9
40.5
r42.9
40.6
42.8
40.8
42.6
Instruments and related products .
Miscellaneous manufacturing
40.7
39.0
40.9
39.3
41.1
39.4
40.7
39.0
40.7
39.3
40.9
39.8
40.8
39.9
41.2
39.6
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufacturers
39.6
35.4
40.1
37.0
39.6
36.6
40.0
34.6
39.9
36.8
40.2
r36.9
40.3
38.3
39.8
36.4
Textile mill products .-.
Apparel and other textile products
38.8
35.6
38.9
36.2
39.4
36.3
39.1
36.3
40.0
36.4
r40.7
r36.5
40.7
36.6
41.2
36.8
Paper and allied products.
Printing and publishing ...
43.0
37.6
43.0
37.4
42.9
37.5
42.7
37.5
43.0
37.9
43.1
r38.0
43.2
37.9
43.1
37.8
Chemicals and allied products .
Petroleum and coal products ..
41.9
42.0
41.9
41.7
42.0
42.6
41.8
42.9
41.8
43.3
r41.6
43.4
41.8
44.0
41.8
42.9
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products
Leather and leather products
40.9
37.0
40.9
37.1
41.2
37.0
40.6
37.0
40.7
37.3
41.1
r37.8
41.1
37.9
41.1
38.1
Durable goods industries:
Lumber and wood products
' Furniture and fixtures
Nondurable goods industries:
964. MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES '
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries
Percent rising of 34 components .
99,839
+ 102,971
+ 106,780
- 104,370
+ 107,661
- 106,641
- 104,495
+ 105,436
(47)
(60)
(62)
(56)
(56)
(46)
(57)
(56)
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products...
11,169
13,457
+
10,559
13,593
+
-
10,736
13,426
+
10,604
14,206
+
+
11,038
14,560
-
10,212
14,356
+
+
10,749
14,837
+
10,464
15,212
Machinery, except electrical .
Electrical machinery
17,002
14,378
+
+
17,332
14,947
+
+
17,822
16,200
-
17,766
15,189
+
-
17,812
14,685
+
17,370
16,856
-
16,718
15,820
+
+
18,174
16,803
Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries
23,975
19,858
+
+
26,416
20,124
+
+
28,300
20,296
-
26,730
19,875
+
-
29,861
19,705
+
28,080
19,767
+
26,503
19,868
+
24,726
20,057
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p",
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
x
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data for most of the diffusion index components are not available for publication, but they are included in the totals and directions of
change for the six major industry groups shown here.
DECEMBER 1985
77
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Continued
1985
Diffusion index components
April
May
June
July
August
September
October r
November^
966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(1977 = 100)
All industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components 2
124.1
o
(46)
124.3
124.1
125.2
125.0
124.6
125.1
(73)
(56)
(54)
(75)
(46)
(46)
(66)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
124.1
+
Durable manufactures:
Lumber and products...
Furniture and fixtures ..
110.9
141.0
+
+
112.2
142.0
113.5
141.9
113.0
145.3
+
-
114.8
144.3
115.9
144.2
-
143.4
Clay, glass, and stone products
Primary metals
114.5
81.4
+
116.3
76.4
116.1
78.3
115.1
79.0
+
+
116.2
82.0
116.7
80.3
+
115.6
83.2
+
(NA)
84.7
Fabricated metal products
Nonelectrical machinery,..
109.1
148.9
+
108.3
149.1
107.4
145.6
107.3
147.5
+
+
107.8
149.2
107.5
147.4
+
-
108.0
144.6
+
+
108.2
144.8
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
168.9
120.7
+
+
169.3
120.9
169.5
121.8
165.7
123.7
+
+
166.1
126.8
165.1
126.2
+
-
165.5
123.5
+
+
166.3
126.7
Instruments
Miscellaneous manufactures ..
138.5
98.3
139.9
98.3
140.7
96.8
141.1
95.9
+
+
141.8
97.2
138.9
96.4
+
138.0
97.5
+
139.4
(NA)
132.6
97.7
132.8
97.8
-
132.0
97.6
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Nondurable manufactures:
Foods
Tobacco products .
130.8
98.4
+
131.4
95.7
131.8
98.9
132.2
96.0
Textile mill products
Apparel products
99.0
100.2
+
+
100,0
100.3
103.3
99.2
104.1
100.6
+
-
106.3
100.4
+
+
106.7
101.8
+
106.0
102.3
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
125.1
154.2
+
1244
155.4
127.1
156.7
129.0
154.3
+
127.5
156.3
+
-
128.6
155.9
+
128.0
156.3
Chemicals and products ..
Petroleum products
125.8
87.3
126.7
87.4
126.4
87.1
126.4
88.3
+
128.2
88.2
+
129.5
85.9
o
+
129.5
88.3
(NA)
88.6
Rubber and plastics products
Leather and products
144.9
69.9
144.3
71.0
145.5
71.5
145.6
72.2
+
+
148.0
72.7
+
+
148.6
73.3
o
+
148.6
71.5
(NA)
(NA)
Metal mining .,
Coal
81.2
128.5
+
78.3
128.7
77.5
134.0
60.9
128.0
73.1
127.7
71.4
126.3
+
-
73.1
118.9
Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals ,
106.5
118.5
+
+
106.9
118.7
106.9
117.9
106.9
116.6
105.5
117.7
+
105.1
117.9
+
(NA)
156.5
Mining:
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers:
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - )
- falling.
+
104.2
118.1
(NA)
123.0
102.6
(NA)
The "r" indicates revised; "p",
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
2
78
DECEMBER 1985
ito
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Q
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX. COMPONENTS: BasicData and Directions of Change-Continued
1985
Diffusion index components
April
May
June
August
July
September
October
November
December1
-
-
-
o
967. INDEX OF SPOT MARKET PRICES, RAW INDUSTRIALS 2
Raw industrials price index (1967 = 100) . . . .
+
257.1
-
-
242.9
-
240.7
-
239.8
(46)
(38)
(23)
(38)
(77)
Percent rising of 13 components
252.0
238.0
236.9
234,5
(42)
(46)
234.4
(42)
(23)
Dollars
(pound)..
(kilogram)..
+
0.479
1.056
-
0.475
1.047
-
0.471
1.038
-
0.460
1.014
-
0.445
0.981
+
0.450
0.992
+
0.457
1.008
-
0.454
1.001
(pound).. .
(kilogram)..
+
0.114
0.251
+ 0.120
0.265
-
0.112
0.247
- 0.109
0.240
+
0.112
0.247
-
0.111
0.245
o
0.111
0.245
-
0.108
0.238
o 0.108
0.238
; . . (U.S. ton)..
(metric ton)..
-
85.600
94.357
- 73.000
80.468
- 70.500
77.712
+ 74.000
81.570
+ 80.500
88.735
+ 80.750
89.011
- 77.600
85.538
- 77.000
84.877
+ 78.000
85.979
Tin
(pound)
(kilogram)..
•+
5.528
12.187
+
5.545
12.225
+
5.650
12.456
+
5.848
12.893
-
5.835
12.864
-
5.698
12.562
-
5.684
12.531
-
Zinc
(pound).,
(kilogram)..
+
0.474
1.045
+
0.475
1.047
-
0.466
1.027
-
0.426
0.939
-
0.414
0.913
-
0.406
0.895
-
0,384
0.847
Burlap
(yard).,
(meter)..
+
0.362
0.396
-
0.358
0.392
-
0.323
0.353
-
0.306
0.335
-
0.289
0.316
-
0.261
0.285
-
Cotton
(pound)
(kilogram)..
+
0.632
1.393
-
0.614
1.354
-
0.610
1.345
-
0.608
1.340
-
0.592
1.305 .
-
0.579
1.276
Print cloth
(yard).,
(meter)..
-
0.642
0.702
-
0.610
0.667
-
0.600
0.656
o
0.600
0.656
+
0.602
0.658
+
Wool tops
(pound)..
(kilogram)..
-
3.140
6.92.2
-
3.000
6.614
o
3.000
6.614
o
3.000
6.614
o
3.000
6.614
Hides
(pound)
(kilogram)..
+
0.645
1.422
+
0.674
1.486
-
0.634
1.398.
+
0.639
1.409
+
0.656
1.446
...;
Copper scrap
Lead scrap
:
Steel scrap
Rosin
•
Rubber
.Tallow
+
0.473
1.043
5.640
12.434
o
3
5.640
12.434
-
0.354
0.780
o
0,354
0.780
0.248
0.271
-
0.246
0.269
-
0.238
0.260
-
0.573
1.263
-
0.571
1.259
-
0.568
1.252
0.635
0.694
+
0.675
0.738
+ 0.710
0.776
+ 0.717
0.784
o
3.000
6.614
o
3.000
6.614
o
3.000
6.614
o
3.000
6.614
+
0.675
1.488
+
0.677
1.493
+
0.726
1.601
-
0.717
1.581
3
(100 pounds)..
(100 kilograms)..
+ 47.600
104.939
+ 50.000
110.230
o 50.000
110.230
o 50.000
110.230
o 50.000
110.230
o 50.000
110.230
o 50.000
110.230
o 50.000
110.230
o 50.000
110.230
(pound)..
(kilogram)...
+ 0.417
0.919
-
0.408
0.899
+ 0.416
0.917
o 0.416
0.917
+
0.422
0.930
+
0.432
0.952
-
0.429
0.946
-
0.422
0.930
-
0,403
0.888
.(pound)..
(kilogram)..
+
-
0.192
0.423
-
- 0.154
0.340
-
0.144
0.317
-
0.142
0.313
+ 0.143
0.315
-
0.134
0.295
-
0.133
0.293
0.208
0.459
0.165
0.364
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-tq-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: '{ + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( — ) ' - falling.
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
The "r" indicates revised: "p",
l
The index is the average for December 1 through 19; component prices are averages for December 3, 10, and 17.
Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without
written permission from Commodity Research Bureau/ Inc. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
3
Last official price (October 23).
2
ItUI
DECEMBER 1985
79
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
I A I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
^ J
217. Per capita
gross national
product in 1982
dollars
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars
200. Grots national product in current dollars
Year
GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME
and
quarter
b. Difference
a. Total
(Ann.
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
rate,
bil. <tol.)
Revised1'
1982
First quarter . . . . . . .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
Revised 1
b. Difference
a. Total
c. Percent
change at
annual rate
Revised 1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised 1
Revised 1
c. Percent
change at
annual rate
Revised 1
213. Final sales
in 1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised 1
Revised 1
3,112.6
3,159.5
3,.179.4
3,212.5
-1.8
46.9
19.9
33.1
-0.2
6.2
2.5
4.2
3,170.4
3,179.9
3,154.5
3,159.3
-48.6
9.5
-25.4
4.8
-5.9
1.2
-3.2
0.6
13.694
13,704
13,558
13,544
3,194.4
3,185.3
3,164.0
3,218.6
3,268.7
3,355.1
3,437.5
3,535.0
56.2
96.4
72.4
97.5
7.2
12.3
8.9
11.8
3.190.6
3,259.3
3,293.4
3,357.2
31.3
68.7
34.1
63.8
4.0
8.9
4.3
8.0
13,648
13,913
14,023
14,260
3,232.8
3,263.0
3,292.0
3,334.6
3,676.5
3,757.5
3,812.2
3,85;i.5
141.5
81.0
54.7
40.3
17.0
9.1
6.0
4.3
3,449.4
3,492.6
3.510.4
3,515.6
92.2
43.2
17.8
5.2
11.4
5.1
2.1
0.6
14,621
14,773
14,812
14,797
3,365.7
3,426.6
3,445.5
3,479.5
3,917.5
3,960.6
4,016,9
2
4,075,5
65.0
43.1
56.3
2
58.6
6.9
4.5
5.8
2
6.0
3,547.8
3,557.4
3.584.1
2
3.612.7
32.2
9.6
26.7
2
28.6
3.7
1.1
3.0
2
3.-2
14,903
14,916
14,988
3,532.0
3,542.3
3,585.8
1983
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
1984
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
Q
|
230. Total in current
Disposable personal income
Year
and
quarter
dollars
224. Current dollars
(Ann.
225. Constant
(1982) dollars
rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised 1
1982
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
^ Q
GNP AND PERSONAL fNCOME—Continued
....
....
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
231. Total in 1982
dollars
232. Durable goods
in current dollars
2 33. Durable goods
in 1982 dollars
227. Per capita in
1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
Revised 1
Revised 1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann.
bil. dol.)
Revised 1
Revised 1
Revised 1
(Ann.
rate,
rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised 1
2,207.2
2,241.8
2,278.6
2,318.1
2,245.7
2,260.9
2.263.4
2,276.1
9,700
9,743
9,728
9.758
1,996.3
2,023.8
2,065.6
2,117.0
2,031.2
2,041.0
2,051.8
2,078.7
245.1
248.9
252.8
263.8
247.7
249.1
251.8
262.0
2,345.5
2,387.7
2,447.9
2,520.4
2,291.3
2,309.0
2,346.9
2,391.3
9,802
9,856
9,993
10,157
2,146.0
2,210.1
2,254.9
2,306.3
2,096.4
2,137.2
2,161.8
2,188.1
268.5
285.3
295.3
309.4
264.9
280.8
288.5
300.0
2,610.2
2,649.9
2,696.7
2,723.8
2,446.8
2,461.8
2,480.5
2.484.4
10,371
10,413
10,466
10,457
2,358.6
2,414.4
2,439.0
2,480.1
2,210.9
2,243.0
2,243.4
2,262.0
321.6
330.2
331.1
341.5
311.0
317.7
318.0
327.6
2,739.2
2.817.7
2.800.2
2,482.7
2,532.2
2,503.1
10.429
10,617
10,468
2.525.0
2,563.3
2,606.1
2,288.6
2,303.5
2.329.6
351.5
356.5
376.0
335.0
340.3
359.3
1983
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
1984
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for thoss, indicated by © , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue.
The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 4 1 .
1
2
M
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page i i i .
"Flash estimate.
DECEMBER 1985
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Q
Year
and
quarter
1982
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES—Continued
238. Nondurable
goods in 1982
dollars
237. Services in
current dollars
Q j
239. Services in
1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised 1
Revised 1
Revised 1
Revised 1
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
240. Total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
241. Total in
1982 dollars
242. Fixed investment in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised1
Revised 1
243. Fixed investment in 1982
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised 1
Revised 1
758.1
762.6
776.7
786.6
764.2
768.3
772.8
778.6
993.1
1,012.2
1,036.1
1,066.5
1,019.2
1,023.5
1,027.2
1,038.1
459.5
467.8
452.2
409.6
464.2
467.5
448.6
408.8
483.6
472.9
461.2
469.5
488.2
473.0
458.1
468.1
792.4
811.7
826.5
837.2
787.0
796.8
806.8
812.0
1,085.2
1,113.0
1,133.1
1,159.6
L,044.5
1,059.7
1,066.5
]L,076.1
425.0
483.7
521.2
577.6
422.5
489.0
526.3
575.9
467.7
489.2
524.0
552.1
464.7
492.7
524.9
553.2
856.6
873.2
876.6
883.1
819.4
832.8
831.2
828.6
1,180.4
1,211.1
1,231.3
1,255.4
L,080.5
L,092.6
L,094.3
L,105.8
658.8
673.3
687.9
676.2
649.0
662.9
673.3
659.9
566.7
604.5
619.5
637.2
565.4
596.8
608.4
623.8
895.7
910.2
914.5
839.9
846.7
849.8
1,277.8
1,296.6
1,315.6
1,113.7
1,116.5
1,120.4
657.6
672.8
666.1
639.6
655.6
645.0
639.1
657.3
665.9
623.8
640.5
646.8
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
01 (
• •
GROSS PRIVATE
I t i f l DOMESTIC INVEST.—Con.
Year
and
quarter
1982
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
245. Change in
business inventories in current
dollars
30. Change in
business inventories in 1982
dollars
260. Total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised 1
Revised 1
Revised1
Revised1
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
261. Total in
1982 dollars
262. Federal
Government in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
263. Federal
Government in
1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
266. State and
local government
in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised1
Revised1
Revised1
267. State and
local government
in 1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised1
-24.1
-5.0
-9.0
-59.9
-24.0
-5.4
-9.4
-59.3
622.1
625.7
647.1
671.8
634.6
629.7
642.5
660.1
262.9
259.3
275.3
293.2
267.0
260.5
273.8
289.5
359.2
366.4
371.8
378.7
367.7
369.2
368.6
370.6
-42.7
-5.5
-2.8
25.5
-42.2
-3.7
1.4
22.6
669.3
673.8
681.1
678.6
649.1
648.2
651.5
642.2
287.1
287.0
286.0
279.2
279.2
277.6
277.4
267.9
382.2
386.9
395.1
399.4
369.9
370.6
374.1
374.3
92.1
68.9
68.3
39.0
83.6
66.0
64.9
36.1
696.5
735.1
747.3
768.4
650.1
677.1
682.4
693.9
285.6
314.8
318.5
332.9
271.4
294.8
296.7
307.3
410.9
420.3
428.8
435.5
378.6
382.4
385.7
386.6
18.5
15.5
0.2
15.8
15.1
-1.8
777.2
794.8
832.5
691.4
699.4
729.2
334.4
337.8
364.8
304.3
305.9
331.1
442.8
457.1
467.7
387.1
393.6
398.1
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 4 1 , 42, and 43.
x
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue,
DECEMBER 1985
page
in.
81
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
£ g
1982
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
252. Current
dollars
255. Constant
(1982) dollars
250. Current
dollars
NATIONAL INCOME
AND ITS COMPONENTS
280. Compensation of^,
employees
257. Constant
(1982) dollars
253. Current
dollars
256. Constant
(1982) dollars
M
H I
220. National income in current
dollars
Imports of goods and services
Exports of goods and services
Net exports of goods and services
Year
and
quarter
FOREIGN TRADE
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised 2
Revised 2
Revised 2
Revised 2
374.1
378.5
359.5
336.0
338.4
336.8
345.4
321.9
333.7
336.8
347.8
324.3
2,483.1
2,514.0
2,528.4
2,548.2
1,879.2
1,899.3
1,918.4
1,931.1
344.6
345.0
358.0
368.8
342.8
342.4
352.8
359.1
316.2
347.5
377.6
396.2
320.3
357.4
399.1
408.0
2,603.6
2,678.9
2,747.4
2,843.5
1,962.4
2,001.5
2,041.8
2,097,6
-60.6
-90.4
-88.7
-100.2
375.4
382.3
391.4
389.5
362.7
366.6,
376.9
377.3
412.8
447.6
453.3
461.7
423.3
457.0
465.6
477.5
2,967.7
3,021.1
3,064.2
3,104.4
2,160.9
2,204.8
2,241.2
2,27*8.5
-71.8
-101.1
-119.8
379.6
369.2
363.2
368.7
358.2
353.5
421.9
439.5
451.0
440.5
459.3
473.3
3,155.3
3,192.2
3,228.0
2,320.4
2,356.9
2,385.2
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol)
{Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
{Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised 2
Revised2
Revised 2
Revised 2
34.7
42.1
14.5
14.1
40.4
41.7
11.7
11.7
373.0
378.9
359.9
335.9
28,4
-2.6
-19.7
-27.4
22.5
-15.0
-46.3
-48.9
-37.4
-65.3
-61.9
-72.2
-42.3
-70.3
-87.8
.
1983
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
1984
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
E
282. Proprietors*
income with IVA
and CCAdjl
Year
and
quarter
1982
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
1
Q
NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS—Continued
284. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj1
SAVING
292. Personal
saving
295. Business
saving
286. Corporate
profits before tax
with IVA and
CCAdj1
288. Net interest
290. Gross saving
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
Revised 2
Revised 2
Revised 2
Revised 2
Revised 2
Revised 2
Revised 2
166.2
173.0
174.6
188.3
14.8
11.9
12.0
15.8
149.9
149.6
154.3
146.1
273.0
280.2
269.1
266.9
471.6
483.4
443.1
387.4
392.6
399.4
409.6
411.1
155.0
161.7
156.0
143.1
185.9
187.3
188.8
207.1
13.3
14.8
11.9
11.0
173.4
205.9
228.4
247.6
268.5
269.4
276.4
280.3
430.0
451.2
478.5
519.8
439.6
458.6
476.5
495.0
140.3
116.4
129.0
147.1
240.3
229.1
232.3
232.9
11.6
11.9
10.0
9.7
268.0
277.8
271.2
276.2
286.9
297.6
309.5
307.0
590.5
581.3
592.8
573.5
502.7
516.0
527.4
535.9
181.6
162.6
181.5
164.5
239.4
240.9
237.5
11.0
13.8
14.5
281.7
288.1
309.1
302.9
292.4
281.8
578.3
571.7
537.3
546.8
556.4
579.2
130.9
167.2
102.6
1983
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
1984
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46.
*IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
2
82
DECEMBER 1985
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Q
SAVING—Continued
298. Government
surplus or deficit
Year
and
Q |
293. Personal
Percent of gross national product
saving rate
quarter
235. Personal con-
248. Nonresidential
sumption expendi-
fixed investment
249. Residential
fixed investment
247. Change in
business inventories
bil. dol.)
Revised
(Percent)
percent).
(Percent)
(Percent)
3
Revised2
Revised 2
Revised 2
Revised 2
(Percent)
(Percent)
2
2
Revised
1982
First quarter
Second quarter
....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
251. Net exports of
goods and services
tures
(Ann. rate,
Revised
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
-76.0
-77.7
-122.5
-166.8
7.0
7.2
6.8
6.2
64.1
64.1
65.0
65.9
12.3
11.7
11.3
11.0
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.6
-0.8
-0.2
-0.3
-1.9
1.1
1.3
0.5
0.4
-150.0
-123.8
-127.0
-122.2
6,0
4.9
5.3
5.8
65.7
65.7
65.6
65.2
10.3
10.2
10.4
10.9
4.0
4.3
4.8
4.7
-1.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.7
0.9
-0.1
-0.6
-0.8
-93.8
-97.3
-116.0
-126.8
7.0
6.1
6.7
6.0
64.2
64.3
64.0
64.4
10.7
11.3
11.4
11.9
4.7
4.8
4.8
4.6
2.5
1.8
1.8
1.0
-1.0
-1.7
-1.6
-1.9
-99.4
-151.9
-144.5
4.8
5.9
3.7
64.5
64.7
64.9
11.7
12.0
11.9
4.6
4.6
4.7
0.5
0.4
0.0
-1.1
-1.8
-2.2
1983
First quarter
Second quarter
. Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
1984
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
,
....
0
Year
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME—Continued
Percent of national income
Percent of GNP—Continued
and
quarter
,265. Federal Govern-
268. State and local
ment purchases of
government purchases
goods and services
of goods and services
283. Proprietors'
income with IVA
and CCAdj1
285. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj'
287. Corporate profits
289. Net interest
before tax with
IVA and CCAdj1
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
Revised2
Revised2
Revised 2
Revised 2
Revised 2
Revised2
Revised 2
8.4
8.2
8.7
9.1
11.5
11.6
11.7
11.8
75.7
75.5
75.9
75.8
6.7
6.9
6.9
7.4
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.6
6.0
6.0
6.1
5.7
11.0
11.1
10.6
10.5
8.8
8.5
8.3
7.9
11.7
11.5
11.5
11.3
75.4
74.7
74.3
73.8
7.1
7.0
6.9
7.3
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.4
6.7
7.7
8.3
8.7
10.3
10.1
10.1
9.9
7.8
8.4
8.4
8.6
11.2
11.2
11.2
11.3
72.8
73.0
73.1
73.4
8.1
7.6
7.6
7.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
9.0
9.2
8.9
8,9
9.7
9.9
10.1
9.9
8.5
8.5
9.1
11.3
11.5
11.6
73.5
73.8
73.9
7.6
7.5
7.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
8.9
9.0
9.6
9.6
9.2
8.7
(Percent)
;
64. Compensation of
employees
(Percent)
1982
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
1983
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
1984
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
^VA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
2
DECEMBER 1985
83
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY
^ J
Implicit price deflator for
gross national product
Year
and
month
310. Index
310c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1
PRICE MOVEMENTS
Consumer price index
for all urban consumers
Fixed-weighted price index,
gross domestic business product
311. Index
311c. Change
over l-quarter
spans'
(1982=100)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1982=100)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Revised2
Revised2
Revised2
Revised2
320. Index @
(1967 = 100)
320c. Change
over 1-month
spans1
(Percent)
Consumer price index for
all urban consumers, food
320c. Change
over 6-month
spansl
322. Index
(Ann, rate,
percent)
(1967-100)
322c. Change
over 1-month
spans'
(Percent)
322c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1983
2.8
January . . . . . . . . .
February
March
102^4
April
May
June
103 .'£
3.2
.
2.4
293.1
293.2
293.4
0.3
-0.1
0.1
1.4
2.3
3.4
288.5
288.9
290.2
0.0
0.1
0.4
2.4
2.8
2.2
3.6
295.5
297.1
298.1
0.7
0.4
0.2
3.6
4.4
5.0
291.3
292.1
291.5
0.4
0.3
-0.2
2.1
1.9
1.7
5.1
299.3
300.3
301.8
0.4
0.3
0.4
4.2
4.1
4.2
291.5
291.7
292.7
0.0
0.1
0.3
1.7
1.5
3.0
3.1
302.6
303.1
303.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
4.7
4.8
4
fi
*T . O
293.8
294.3
295.9
0.4
0.2
n ^
u. 0
f. A
U.H
4.2
305.2
306.6
307.3
0.6
0.4
0.3
4.8
4.5
4.3
299.9
302.0
301.9
1.4
0.7
0.0
5.4
4.6
3.8
4.6
308.8 "
309.7
310.7
0.4
0.2
0.2
3.6
3.7
3.8
301.6
301.0
301.5
-0.1
-0.2
0.2
1.8
1.5
1.7
3.8
311.7
313.0
314.5
0.3
0.4
0.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
302.6
304.2
304.4
0.4
0.5
0.1
2.5
3.3
3.8
3.0
315.3
315.3
315.5
0.3
0.2
0.3
3.4
3.3
3.5
305.4
305.9
307.2
0.3
0.2
0.4
3.4
3.4
3.2
2.6
316.1
317.4
318.8
0.2
0.3
0.5
3.7
3.8
3.7
307.7
309.3
309.2
0.2
0.5
0.0
2.2
1.6
0.8
3.3
320.1
321.3
322.3
0.4
0.2
0.2
3.7
3.4
308.7
308.3
308.5
-0.2
-0.1
n
1
U . X
0.7
-0.3
nR
U. J
2.2
322.8
323.5
324.5
0.2
0.2
0,2
2.6
3.3
308.8
308.9
309.9
0.1
0.0
0.3
1.2
2.9
325.5
326.6
0.3
0.6
310.6
312.7
0.2
0.7
102." 6
103! 5
..
July
August
September
loiii
October
November
December . .
105^3
4.7
104.8
3.5
105^6
5.8
7.2
1984
January
February
March
106! 6
April
May
June
1O7.*6
July
August
September
108.'6
October
November
December
109.6
5.0
106.7
3.8
107 .*9
3.8
108^9
3.7
109^7
1985
January
February
March
110.4
April
May
June
nils
July . .'
August
September
112*1
October
November
December . .
3.0
Il6l4
3.3
11 i." 3
2.9
111:9 •
9
2.5
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49.
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and
1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter.
a
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/' page iii.
'"Flash" estimate.
84
DECEMBER 1985
BCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
M R
330. Index ©
(1967 = 100)
330c. Change
over 1-month
spans1©
(Percent)
Producer price index, crude materials
for further processing
Producer price index, industrial commodities
Producer price index, all commodities
Year
and
month
PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued
330c. Change
over 6-month
spans' ©
(Ann. rate,
percent)
335. Index ©
(1967 = 100)
335c. Change
over 1-month
spans1 ©
(Percent)
335c. Change
over 6-mo nth
spans'©
(Ann: rate,
percent)
331. Index
(1967 = 100)
331c. Change
over 1-month
spans1
(Percent)
331c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1983
January
February
March
299.9
300.9
300.6
-0.3
0.3
-0.1
0.5
0.8
1.1
313.9
313.9
313.5
-0.4
0.0
-0.1
-1.2
-0.9
0.1
316.3
318.0
320.0
-0.5
0.5
0.6
4.1
1.5
2.1
April
May
June
300.6
301.5
302.4
0.0
0.3
0.3
2.2
2,5
3.2
312.4
313.6
315.3
-0.4
0.4
0.5
1.7
2.2
2.3
322.2
321.0
321.1
0.7
-0.4
0.0
1.1
4.8
6.1
July
August
September
303.2
304.7
305.3
0.3
0.5
0.2
3,6
2.7
2.5
316.5
317.3
317.1
0.4
0.3
-0.1
3.9
3.0
2.0
318.1
325.5
329.6
-0.9
2,3
1.3
4.7
5.4
7.9
October
November
December
306.0
305.5
306.1
0.2
-0.2
0.2
3.2
2.8
3.8
318.5
318.3
318.4
0.4
-0.1
0.0
1.6
2.1
3.1
329.7
329.5
333.5
0.0
-0.1
1.2
H.7
2.9
4.6
January
February
March
308.0
308.9
311.0
0.6
0.3
0.7
3.5
4.0
3.4
319.1
320.6
321.9
0.2
0.5
0.4
2.6
3.1
3.4
336.2
330.2
337.1
0.8
-1.8
2.1
3.5
1.8
-1.9
April
May
June
311.3
311.5
311.3
0.1
0.1
-0.1
2.5
1.2
-1.1
322.6
323.2
323.8
0.2
0.2
0.2
3.0
1.7
0.2
335.4
332.5
330.4
-0.5
-0.9
-0.6
-2.9
-1.7
-5.6
July
August
September
311.9
310.7
309.3
0.2
-0.4
-0.5
-1.2
-0.8
-1.0
323.9
323.3
322.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.3
0.5
0.4
-0.5
331.3
327.4
327.6
0.3
-1.2
0.1
-6.4
-2.0
-1.1
October
November
December
309.4
310.3
309.8
0.0
0.3
-0.2
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
323.4
323.8
323.0
0.4
0.1
-0.2
-0.6
-0.7
0.2
324.5
329.1
328.5
-0.9
1.4
-0.2
-5.7
-6.8
-9.9
January
February
March
309.5
309.1
308.6
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.3
-0.4
322.9
322.2
322.5
0.0
-0.2
0.1
0.2
0.9
1.1
321.7
316.0
311.0
-2.1
-1.8
-1.6
-10.3
-14.5
-14.7
April
May .
June
309.3
309.8
309.2
0.2
0.2
-0.2,
-0.3
-1.2
-1.8
323,8
325.3
324.8
0.4
0.5
-0.2
0.9
0,9
0.0
307.4
304.3
303.4
-1.2
-1.0
-0,3
r-12.0
-13.2
-11,0
July .
August
September
309.0
307.2
305.8
-0.1
-0.6
-0.5
-0.8
-o.i
r324.4
323,6
322.5
r-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
0.4
-0.2
r301.8
294.4
293.4
r-0.5
r-2.5
-0.3
-3.2
4.6
October
November
December
308.0
309.7
0.7
0.6
324.4
325.0
0.6
0.2
302.5
311.2
3.1
2.9
1984
1985
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
1
Changes are centered within the spans:
it<:n
DECEMBER 1985
1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.
85
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Q j
Producer price index, intermediate
materials, supplies, and components
Year
and
month
332. Index
(1967 = 100)
332c. Change
over 1-month
spans1
(Percent)
PRICE MOVEMENTS—Continued
Producer price index, capital equipment
332c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
333. Index
(1967 = 100)
Producer price index, finished consumer goods
333c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
333c. Change
over 1-month
spans'
334.Index
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Percent)
(1967 = 100)
334c. Change
over 1-month
spans:
(Percent)
334c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1983
January
February
March
309.9
310.0
309.3
-0.4
0.0
-0.2
-1.0
284.1
285.0
285.8
-0.1
-0.6
0.1
0.3
0.3
2.6
2.3
1.8
283.4
283.3
282.9
-0.9
0.0
-0 1
-0.6
-1.0
-0 9
April
May
June
308.5
309.6
311.1
-0.3
0.4
0.5
1.4
2.1
3.8
285.9
286.3
286.9
0.0
0.1
0.2
2.3
2.4
1.8
282.8
283.6
284.7
0.0
0.3
0.4
0.8
1.6
2.3
July
August
September
312.1
313,2
315.1
0.3
0.4
0.6
4.9
4.1
3.4
287.3
288.4
288.4
0.1
0.4
0.0
2.2
2.0
2.0
284.5
285.5
286.1
-0.1
0.4
0.2
2.6
1.4
1.3
315.9
315.9
316.4
0.3
0.0
0.2
3.2
3.0
2.9
289.0
289.2
289.7
0.2
0.1
0.2
2.2
2.3
2.9
286.5
285.6
286.5
0.1
-0.3
0.3
3.0
2.8
3.6
January
February
March
317.1
317.9
319.6
0.2
0.3
0.5
2.7
3.2
3.2
290.5
291.7
292.5
0.3
0.4
0.3
3.7
3.2
3.1
288.8
289.5
291.2
0.8
0.2
0.6
3.1
3.5
2.7
April
May
June
320.1
320.9
321.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
2.4
1.5
0,3
294.3
293.8
294 1
0.6
-0.2
01
2.9
2.5
2 3
290.9
290.5
290 3
-0.1
-0.1
-0 1
1.5
0.4
-0 9
July .
August
September
320.9
320.3
320.0
-0.2
-0.2
-0 1
0.2
0.0
-0.5
294.7
295.3
295 8
0.2
0.2
0 2
0.5
1.4
0 6
291.0
290.1
289 9
0.2
-0.3
-0 1
-0.7
0.3
0.6
October
November
December
320.4
320.9
320.7
0.1
0.2
-0.1
-0.3
-0.8
-0.9
295.1
295.9
295.0
289.9
290.9
291.2
0.0
0.3
0.1
-0.3
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.8
0 3
3.1
3.0
3 9
290.6
290.3
290 5
-0.2
-0.1
01
1.4
1.0
0 3
0.0
3.1
2.0
0.2
291.9
292.4
291.6
0.5
0.2
-0.3
2.2
1.9
r292.5
291.3
289.7
-0.4
-0.5
292.0
294.9
0.8
1.0
October
November
December
.......
1984
-0.2
0.3
-0.3
1.1
2.2
2.5
,
1985
January
February .
March
320.4
319.0
-0.1
-0.4
-0.8
-0.6
OIO C
-() ?
-i 2
296.3
298.6
299 5
April
May
June
319.1
320.0
318.8
0.2
0.3
-0.4
-1.6
-1.1
-0.7
299.6
300.3
300,7
July .
August
September
317.8
317.3
317.4
-0.3
-0.2
00
-0.9
-0.9
300.9
301.6
299.8
-0.6
October
November
December
317.7
318.6
0.1
0.3
302.9
303.2
1.0
0.1
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pafe 48.
l
Changes are centered within the spans:
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
•
0.3
rl.3
0.7
-0.6
0.1
1.7
1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.
DECEMBER 1985
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B
I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
B
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagncuttural payrolls'
Year
and
month
Current-dollar earnings
340. Index
(1977 = 100)
340c. Change
over 1-month
spans'
(Percent)
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Current-dollar compensation
Real earnings
340c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
341c. Change
over 1-month
spans*
341. Index
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1977=100)
(Percent)
341c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
345. Index
(1977 = 100)
345c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans2
345c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1983
152.9
153.6
153.6
0.5
0.5
0.0
4.4
4.7
3.9
94.8
95.3
95.1
0.3
0.5
-0.2
3.1
2.5
0,9
159.7
154.2
154.8
155.1
0.4
0.4
0.2
3.7
2.5
3.5
94.8
94.9
94.9
-0.2
0.0
0.0
0.2
-1.8
-1.1
16l!6
155.7
155.5
156.3
0.4
-0.1
0.5
3.9
3.3
3.7
94.9
94.4
94.6
0.0
-0.5
0.2
0.1
-0.2
0.2
161'.9
157.2
157.3
157.9
0.6
0.1
0.4
3.8
4.3
3.8
94.9
94.8
95.0
0.3
-0.1
0.2
0.0
1.0
1.2
163.7
158.6
158.7
159.2
0.4
0.1
0.3
3.7
3.3
3.2
94.9
94.9
95.1
-0.1
0.0
0.3
1.3
0.5
0.5
165!9
160.1
159.9
160.5
0.5
-0.1
0.3
3.0
2.6
3.2
95.5
95.0
95.2
0.3
-0.5
0.2
0.7
-1.4
-1.8
167.4
July
August
September
161.0
160.8
161.7
0.4
-0.1
0.6
1.8
2.9
3.6
95.2
94.2
94.3
0.0
-1.1
0.1
-2.9
-1.1
-0.8
168^9
October
November
December
161.6
162.2
163.4
-0.1
0.4
0.7
2.5
4.0
3.3
94.1
94.5
94.9
-0.2
0.4
0.4
-1.5
1.2
0.6
17CK5
163.0
164.0
164.4
-0.2
0.6
0.3
4.0
3.2
2.8
94.5
94.7
94.5
-0.4
0.3
-0.2
-0.5
-0.8
172.5
3.0
2.1
r2.8
94.4
94.3
94.5
-0.2
-0.1
0.3
-0.4
-0.9
r0.3
173.9
94.3
94.3
r94.7
-0.2
0.0
0.4
r-0.2
p-0.4
r94.3
p94.0
r-0.5
p-0.2
January .
February
March .
. .
April
May
June
July
August .
September
...
.
October
November
December
5.7
4.'i
3.3
•
3.9
2.3
3.9
4.5
3,9
1984
January
February
March
..
April
May
June
•
5,4
4^3
3.5
i'.i
3.7
4.0
3.8
3^9
1985
January
February
March
,
164.8
164.9
165.6
April
May
June
July
August .
September
October
November
December
......
0.2 ,
0.1
0.5
165.4
165.7
T166.7
-0.1
r2.0
0.2
r0.6
P 2.F
rl66.4
pl66.9
r-0.2
pO.3
4.8
0.6
3.9
3.2
r3.7
rl75!4
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
L
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.'
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
2
inn
DECEMBER 1985
87
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B
I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
^ H
Negotiated wage and
benefit decisions
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector—Continued
Year
and
month
348. Average
first-year
changes @
Real compensation
346. Index
(1977-100)
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVrTY—Continued
346c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans'
346c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Output per hour, all persons, business sector
349. Average
changes over
life of
contract ©
(Ann. rate,
percent)
370. Index
(1977 = 100)
370c. Change
over 1-quarter
spansl
370c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
358. Index of
output per hour,
all persons,
nonfarm business sector
(1977 = 100)
1983
5.3
January
February
March
98.* 7
-1.0
April
May
June
, .
98.5
i.'s
6! 6
-1.6
10212
4.4
3.6
-1.8
98^0
October
November
December
9s!i
5.0
4.3
-0*6
0.1
5.9
103*6
...
...
July
August
September
2.1
1.4
4.9
ioi*6
3*i
103*6
3*5
104! i
3*3
104.4
2*7
105*2
3.2
106^6
i.i
10613
0.3
106.9
rl.l
106.6
2.8
104.3
3.1
1.4
104*7
-0.4
3*4
1984
0.1
January
February
March
98.1
April
May .
June .
98.'i
-0.2
6*i
o'i
5.1
4.7
4.0
105*7
3.5
3.2
4.9
107*0
..
July .
August
September
. . .
October
November
December
0.0
98.1
9s! i
0.2
6*4
6*2
2.7
3.1
0.6
107'.2
3.7
2.0
3.1
108*0
1985
January
February
March
98*.5
April
May
June .
98.3
July
August
September
98.6
1.5
-1.0
6." 5
4,4
4.0
-3.9
106.9
3.5
3.5
1.5
107.3
rl.3
pi.7
106.3
r3.7
p2.9
rlO8.3
rlO6.9
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are
placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
DECEMBER 1985
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
C
I
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Q
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
447. Number
unemployed,
full-time
workers
Civilian labor force
Year
and
month
441. Total
442. Civilian
employment
Number unemployed
37. Persons
unemployed
444. Males
20 years
and over
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
445. Females
20 years
and over
446. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
443. Number
employed
part time
for economic
reasons
(Thous.)
Civilian labor force participation rates
451. Males
20 years
and over
(Percent)
452. Females
20 years
and over
453. Both
sexes 16-19
(Percent)
(Percent)
years of age
1983
January
February
March
110,746
110,700
110,733
99,233
99,144
99,303
11,513
11,556
11,430
5,587
5,737
5,620
3,990
3,950
3,895
1,936
1,869
1,915
9,802
9,915
9,747
6,456
6,303
6,179
78.2
78.2
78.2
53.0
53.0
52 9
53.9
53.0
53 0
April
May
June
110,906
110,892
111,717
99,590
99,634
100,444
11,316
11,258
11,273
5,669
5,657
5 408
3,751
3,750
3 861
1,896
1,851
2 004
9,656
9,521
9 382
6,021
5,989
5 945
78.4
78.4
78 6
52.9
52.7
53 1
52.8
52.5
54 5
July
August
September
111,707
112,184
112,264
101,173
101,589
101,983
10,534
10,595
10,281
5,186
5,129
5,016
3,481
3,567
3,513
1,867
1,899
1,752
8,934
8,948
8,733
5,858
5,958
5,974
78.7
78.6
78.5
52.9
53.3
53.5
53.7
54.9
53.6
October
November
December
111,914
112,150
112,237
102,042
102,702
103,029
9,872
9,448
9,208
4,801
4,592
4,382
3,359
3,225
3,227
1,712
1,631
1,599
8,315
7,924
7,679
5,726
5,884
5,677
78.4
78.4
78.3
53.3
53.2
53.3
52.8
53.3
53.5
January
February
March
112,320
112,724
112,906
103,294
103,888
104,123
9,026
8,836
8,783
4,273
4,139
4,048
3,191
3,135
3,148
1,562
1,562
1,587
7,532
7,321
7,301
5,719
5,697
5,465
78.3
78.3
78.3
53.1
53.3
53.5
53.4
53.8
53.9
April
May
June
113,202
113,722
113,619
104,402
105,162
105,391
8,800
8,560
8,228
4,087
3,909
3,807
3,161
3,127
2,972
1,552
1,524
1,449
7,331
7,056
6,578
5,520
5,377
5,549
78.3
78.3
78.3
53.6
54.1
53.8
54.2
54.3
54.3
July
August
September
113,868
113,629
113,764
105,377
105,148
105,394
8,491
8,481
8,370
3,884
3,836
3,817
3,130
3,214
3,044
1,477
1,431
1,509
7,010
6,933
6,931
5,482
5,384
5,449
78.3
78-3
78.3
54.0
53.9
53.6
54.5
53.0
54.2
October
November
December
114,016
114,074
114,464
105,649
105,932
106,273
8,367
8,142
8,191
3,731
3,725
3,759
3,173
3,027
2,952
1,463
1,390
1,480
6,932
6,768
6,811
5,483
5,413
5,596
78.3
78.3
" 78.3
53.9
53.9
54.0
53.7
53.5
54.1
January
February
March
114,875
115,084
115,514
106,391
106,685
107,119
8,484
8,399
8,396
3,798
3,774
3,731
3,161
3,126
3,179
1,525
1,499
1,485
6,963
6,954
6,821
5,389
5,077
5,400
78.2
78.2
78.2
54.4
54.5
54.8
55.2
55.7
56.0
April
May
June
115,371
115,373
114,783
106,945
106,960
106,370
8,426
8,413
8,413
3,807
3,651
3,891
3,197
3,231
3,148
1,422
1,531
1,374
6,852
6,797
6,741
5,374
5,617
5,257
78.2
78.1
77 9
54.7
54.5
54.6
55.3
55.8
51 8
July
August
September
115,299
115,818
115,314
106,862
107,172
107,544
8,451
8,127
8,274
3,767
3,600
3,637
3,125
3,192
3,244
1,559
1,335
1,394
6,964
6,644
6,789
5,350
5,443
5,297
77.9
77.9
78.1
54.5
54.6
54.8
55.3
53.5
54.0
116,159
116,067
107,867
107,927
8,291
8,140
3,663
3,659
3,038
3,037
1,590
1,444
6,692
6,717
5,213
5,292
78.1
78.1
54.9
54.8
54.8
54.3
..
1984
1985
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 51.
DECEMBER 1985
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Q |
federal Governmen t1
Year
and
month
500. Surplus
or deficit
{Ann. rate,
bil. do!)
Revised
2
State and local government'
501. Receipts
502. Expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised
2
Q
RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES
Revised
510. Surplus
or deficit
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
.
2
Revised
Advance measures of defense activity
511. Receipts
512. Expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
2
Revised*
OEFENSE INDICATORS
Revised
517. Defense
Department
gross obligations incurred
(Mil. dol,)
525. Defense
Department
prime contract awards
543. Defense
Department
gross unpaid
obligations
outstanding
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
548. Manufacturers'
new orders,
defense
products
(Mil. dol.)
2
1983
January . . . . . . . . .
February
March
-187*9
636^3
824*. 2
37*9
466! 9
429! 6
21,340
19,502
20,444
16,908
13,042
7,351
122,628
123,803
125,570
9,555
5,014
6,361
April
May
June
-170 6
66512
835 '.8
46.8
481." 8
435 ! l
19,332
19,554
21,518
10,132
10,111
10 814
126,165
126,532
129,720
6,578
5,609
7 412
July
August
September
-179.7
659.7
839! 4
52*7
496.* 6
443.9
19,409
20,489
20,388
11,017
10,727
10,921
131,172
130,829
133,056
7,115
5,496
5,804
-179.' S
671*1
850 ".6
57*2
505*7
448*5
17,201
24,242
24 204
2,820
16,140
9 463
131,130
139,062
141 a?n
6,792
8,506
7 rns
-157*8
709*4
867^2
64! 6
525*5
461 '.5
21,145
22,667
23,445
15,089
14,273
13,779
142,169
145,648
150,842
6,503
6,884
11,713
-163*6
721^8
88419
65*7
537*4
47l!7
19,185
20,342
19,781
11,398
9,459
11,644
149,369
149,452
151,538
5,139
6,648
6,834
July
August
September
-178.'i
727-1
905.2
62*1
542." 2
480.'1
20,988
23,098
22,191
10,101
12,647
11,441
152,828
156,271
156,950
7,600
8,090
7,301
October
November
December
-192*7
742." i
934 .'7
65*8
554.* i
488.' 3
20,821
28,892
26,686
12,901
25,552
7,017
159,226
168,321
172,010
5,167
10,091
7,448
-162*6
789-7
952.4
63*2
560.5
497*2
22,492
20,377
20,346
13,405
12,805
10,088
174,180
173,704
174,338
11,061
4,708
6,240
-2O9!l
754/9
964*6
57*3
57o!6
512*7
22,655
25,140
29,513
8,716
14,605
11,052
174,867
178,000
179,337
6,130
8,773
11,238
-2Oll3
790 .*7
992.'6
56*9
58l!8
524.* 9
31,641
p34,470
(NA)
11,761
17,602
182,074
pl87,278
(NA)
9,594
10,270
8,106
October
November
December
. ..
1984
January
February
March
April
May
June . . .
•
, .
1985
January
February
March
April . . .
May
June
, .
July
August
September
October
November
December
pll,385
(NA)
r6,179
p7,240
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 ind 53.
1
2
Based on national income and product accounts.
Seo "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page i i i .
90
DECEMBER 1985
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES-Continued
Q
DEFENSE INDICATORS-Continued
National defense
purchases
Intermediate and final measures of defense activity
Year
and
month
557. Index of
industrial
production,
defense and
space equipment
(1977^100)
559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense
products, book
value
561. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, defense
products
(Mil. dot.)
(Mil. dol.)
580. Defense
Department
net outlays,
military
(Mil. dol.)
588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense
products
570. Employment, defense
products industries
(Mil. dol.)
(Thous.)
564. Federal
purchases of
goods and
578. Civilian,
services,
direct hire
national
employment © defense
(Ann. rate,
(Thous.)
bil.dol.)
565. National
defense purchases as a
percent of
GNP
Revised1
Revised1
6.4
Defense Department
personnel
577. Military
on active
duty©
(Thous.)
1983
(Percent)
January
February
March
137.8
139.2
140.4
16,585
16,455
16,758
100,987
100,757
101,896
17,058
16,772
16,804
5,174
5,244
5,222
1,344
1,346
1,342
2,120
2,122
2,127
1,024
1,028
1,030
209.4
April
May
June
141.6
142.7
143.6
16,826
17,175
17,331
103,198
103,529
105,568
17,529
16,854
17,189
5,276
5,278
5,373
1,347
1,352
1,356
2,123
2,120
2,116
1,029
1,040
1,049
214 .*5
July
August
September
144.9
145.0
146.3
17,321
17,813
17,436
107,018
107,084
107,453
16,975
18,455
17,463
5,665
5,430
5,435
1,366
1,350
1,372
2,113
2,115
2,123
1,053
1,052
1,026
...
215.8
...
6.3
...
October
November
December
146.4
145.2
145.5
17,278
17,450
17,837
108,627
111,449
112,754
17,781
17,329
18,726
5,618
5,684
5,733
1,374
1,377
1,383
2,120
2,126
2,124
1,034
1,040
1,045
222! 9
6\3
January
February
March
148.8
151.3
151.9
17,861
18,190
18,746
113,575
114,624
120,647
18,448
17,801
17,794
5,682
5,835
5,690
1,391
1,398
1,408
2,130
2,135
2,140
1,042
1,043
1,046
228'.3
6,*2
April
May
June
155.6
156.0
157.2
19,017
19,514
20,035
119,870
120,758
121,672
18,525
18,609
18,953
5,916
5,760
5,920
1,415
1,427
1,440
2,138
2,141
2,143
1,049
1,061
1,071
235*8
6*.3
July
August
September
158.5
160 7
163 4
20,734
21,315
22,141
123,219
125,276
126,496
18,405
19,181
19,469
6,053
6,033
6,081
1,450
1,459
1,470
2,142
2,144
2,138
1,079
1,074
1,043
236.2
...
6.2
October
November
December
163.5
163.3
165.3
22,551
22,581
22,517
125,340
129,092
129,775
18,687
20,152
19,899
6,323
6,339
6,765
1,480
1,486
1,498
2,138
2,141
2,138
1,058
1,065
1,067
247^5
6\4
165.3
167.3
169.0
23,091
23,405
18,762
20,058
20,465
6,380
6,695
6,718
1,511
1,522
1,532
2,146
2,147
2,148
1,065
1,069
1,072
249 '.5
6\4
0-2 AQQ
134,455
132,467
131,990
170.1
171.2173.4
24 006
23,962
24,721
131,769
133,958
137,975
19,597
20,603
20,554
6,352
6,584
7,221
1,540
1,550
1,561
2,148
2,149
2,151
1,078
1,089
1,099
256.0
6.5
July
August
September
173.9
175.5
177.5
25,317
25,923
26,476
140,742
143,848
144,828
21,498
22,489
p21,991
6,827,
7,164
7,126
1,569
1,590
rl,586
2,156
2,157
2,151
1,110
1,107
1,085
269^9
6\7
October
November
December
rl78.7
P181.5
26,587
CNA)
rl43,336
pl42,751
(NA)
r7,671
p7,825
1,595
pi,601
2,151
p2,153
(NA)
1984
.
1985
January
February
March
April
May
June
. . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
*See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
DECEMBER 1985
91
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Q |
602. Exports, excluding
military £ id shipments
604. Exports of domestic
agricultural products
MERCHANDISE TRADE
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery
612. General imports
111
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum
products
(Mil dol.)
616. Imports of automobiles and parts
(Mil. dol.)
1983
January
February
March
17,232
16,312
16,690
3,128
2,985
2,811
3,644
3,359
3,499
20,127
18,804
19,528
4,481
3,183
3,603
2,329
3,019
2,676
April
May
June
16,095
15,655
16,959
2,891
2,715
2,977
3,513
3,433
3,265
19,914
21,446
20,916
3,749
5,432
4,215
2,746
2,819
2,823
July
August
September
16,486
16,582
17,257
3,072
2,973
3,322
3,655
3,290
3,718
21,828
22,714
22,451
4,622
4,597
4,929
2,936
2,813
2,636
17,033
17,063
17,298
2,979
3,109
3,175
3,689
3,686
3,683
24,333
23,115
22,976
4,818
4,459
3,997
3,233
3,415
January
February
March
17,889
17,208
17,906
3,457
3,198
3,336
4,009
3,848
3,764
26,204
26,420
26,948
4,515
4,660
5,393
3,684
3,751
3,680
April
May
June
17,520
17,978
17,705
3,030
3,245
2,715
3,811
3,976
3,746
28,074
26,012
25,276
6,000
5,113
4,694
3,838
3,635
3,683
July
August .
September
19,154
18,123
18,210
3,236
3,022
3,153
3,790
3,878
3,640
31,334
26,866
28,409
4,674
4,021
4,261
3,947
3,773
4,302
October .
November
December
18,411
18,395
19,142
2,799
3,242
3,314
4,007
3,905
4,128
26,783
27,331
25,933
4,007
4,637
4,298
3,600
3,817
3,732
January
February
March
19,401
17,853
18,446
2,945
2,842
2,436
4,247
3,970
4,160
28,297
27,985
28,129
4,005
3,833
3,411
4,033
4,999
4,243
April
May
June
17,779
17,414
17,438
2,624
2,092
2,167
3,970
4,073
3,952
28,295
28,685
29,425
4,936
5,237
4,842
4,350
4,073
4,932
July
August
September
17,412
17,423
17,731*
2,158
2,389
2,053
3,615
3,897
3,777
26,630
26,083
31,764
3,342
3,252
4,041
4,161
4,489
5,555
October
November
December
17,368
(NA)
2,325
(NA)
3,694
(NA)
27,594
(NA)
3,811
(NA)
4,198
(NA)
October.
November
December
..
1984
1985
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.
92
DECEMBER 1985
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
| Q
GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS)
Goods and services
Year
669. Imports
668. Exports
667. Balance
Income on investment
Merchandise, adjusted'
618. Exports
622. Balance
620. Imports
651. U.S. investment abroad
and
month
Revised
(Mil. dol.)
{Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
2
2
Revised
Revised
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
2
2
Revised
2
Revised
(Mil. dol.)
652. Foreign
investment in
the United States
(Mil. dol.)
2
Revised
1983
January
-1,454
81,411
82,865
-8,883
49,535
58,418
17,935
12,283
-7,163
81,712
88,875
-15,880
49,048
64,928
19,172
12,856
-9,091
85,068
94,159
-20,697
49,992
70,689
20,985
13,588
-14,228
85,396
99,624
-21,756
53,137
74,893
19,932
13,893
-15,905
90,480
106,385
-24,622
53,469
78,091
23,502
15,268
-26,238
88,874
115,112
-29,625
54,556
84,181
20,895
17,277
-26,093
91,244
117,337
-28,977
55,649
84,626
21,769
18,513
-27,710
91,426
119,136
-30,885
56,242
87,127
21,445
17,442
-21,075
88,534
109,609
-23,454
55,302
78,756
18,868
16,331
-24,268
89,391
113,659
-28,587
53,624
82,211
r22,279
rl6,892
p-26,483
p90,140
pll6,623
p-33,142
p52,310
p85,452
p24,039
pl6,490
February
March
April
; ..
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
..
1984
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1985
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
balance of payments basis: Ex>.eludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department
of Defense purchases (imports).
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
ItUI
DECEMBER 1985
93
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F I
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Year
and
month
47. United States,
index of industrial production
(1977 = 100)
721.OECD1
European countries, index of
industrial
production
(1977 = 100)
728. Japan,
index of industrial production
(1977 = 100)
725. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production
(1977 = 100)
726. France,
index of industrial production
(1977-100)
722. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
(1977 = 100)
727. Italy, index
of industrial
production
(1977 = 100)
723. Canada,
index of industrial production
(1977-100)
1983
January
February
March
101*. 5
103.3
102
104
104
120.0
119.5
122.2
99
101
102
102
101
101
100
100
99
105.4
107.6
105.6
97.6
97.9
98.3
April
May
June
105.6
106 9
107.8
102
104
104
122.0
122.0
123.2
102
102
105
101
104
102
100
100
99
100.6
103.1
100,1
99.8
99.8
102.2
July
August
September , , .
109.8
111.5
113.7
105
104
105
123.4
126.8
129.0
102
103
104
104
104
102
101
101
101
103.8
101.5
104.0
101
104
106.4
October
November . . .
December . . .
114.4
114.8
115.5
104
107
107
127.5
130.0
131.3
104
106
107
101
104
104
101
101
105
102.4
109.3
103.7
107.8
108.7
110.5
January
February
March
118.4
119.3
120.1
108
108
107
131.5
135.4
134.2
106
108
105
105
104
105
105
104
103
105.7
104.3
108.1
111.0
108.0
110.0
April
May
June
120.
121.
122,
106
107
104
135.1
137.9
138.6
105
106
95
102
105
103
103
102
103
103.8
107.6
108.4
109.9
110.3
111.3
July
August
September . . .
123.2
123.5
123.3
108
109
109
139,2
140.2
139.4
109
108
108
107
107
105
102
102
103
107.1
108.7
110.0
115.1
114.5
112.2
October
November . . .
December . . .
122.7
123.4
123.3
109
rlO8
108
143.3
143.4
142.7
109
110
109
107
104
103
103
103
104
107.3
106.1
106.6
112.2
114.1
115.0
January
February
March
123.6
123.7
124.0
108
110
111
143.0
142.8
140.8
110
109
110
rlOl
105
107
106
105
107
102.5
111.5
111.8
114.2
113.8
113.9
April
May
June
124.1
124.1
124.3
109
110
111
144.5
148.2
145.1
110
111
113
rlO3
105
103
108
108
108
107.0
108.3
111.3
114.5
114.3
116,5
July
August
September . , ,
124.
rl25.
rl25.0
111
111
pin
147.8
rl46.0
P144.6
116
112
pill
108
108
plO5
rlO7
107
P109
107.1
rlO7,5
plO9,8
118.5
rll8.3
rll8.5
October
November . . .
December . . .
rl24.6
P125.1
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
P119.3
(NA)
1984
1985
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 58.
'Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
94
DECEMBER 1985
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F
I
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Q
United States
Year
and
month
320. Index ©
(1967 = 100)
Japan
320c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
738. Index ©
(1967 = 100)
CONSUMER PRICES
France
West Germany
738c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
735. Index ©
(1967 = 100)
735c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
736. Index©
(1967 = 100)
United Kingdom
736c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
732. Index ©
(1967 = 100)
732c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1983
January
February
March
293.1
293.2
293.4
1.4
2.3
3.4
306.6
305.5
307.5
0.7
2.1
1.2
201.2
201.3
201.2
1.7
1.9
1.2
390.1
392.9
396.5
11.9
10.8
10.0
523.5
525.8
526.7
3.5
3.2
3.8
April
May
June
295.5
297.1
298.1
3.6
4.4
5.0
308.6
312.0
309.7
1.1
1.9
1.0
201.7
202.2
202.9
2.4
3.6
4.1
401.8
404.5
406.9
9.8
9.9
10.3
534.1
536.4
537.7
5.0
5.4
6.1
July
August
September . . . . ' . . .
299.3
300.3
301.8
4.2
4.1
4.2
308.3
307.4
311.4
2.0
1.6
2.3
203.6
204.3
204.9
3.6
3.2
3.8
410.4
412.8
416.0
9.1
8.9
8.6
540.6
543.0
545.4
6.5
6.3
6.6
October
November
December
302.6
303.1
303.5
4.7
4.8
4.6
314.2
312.2
311.4
2.6
4.0
3.8
204.9
205.2
205.7
3.0
2.2
2.2
419.2
420.9
422.4
8.3
8.0
7.1
547.3
549.2
550.7
5.3
4.8
4.4
January
February
March
305.2
306.6
307.3
4.8
4.5
4.3
312.3
314.2
315.1
2.7
2.4
1.5
206.6
207.1
207.3
2.6
2.5
1.9
425.4
428.0
431.0
6.6
6.6
6.9
550.4
552.6
554.4
4.1
4.0
3.7
April
May
June
308.8
309.7
310.7
3.6
3.7
3.8
315.9
318.2
315.6
2.5
-0.1
0.8
207.7
207.8
208.6
1.6
1.3
0.9
433.6
436.2
438.4
6.8
7.0
7.2
561.8
563.9
565.3
3.6
5.1
5.1
July
August
September
311.7
313.0
314.5
3.5
3.6
3.7
316.2
313.4
318.5
1.6
1.9
3.8
208.2
207.8
208.0
1.6
1.7
2.1
441.5
443.7
445.9
7.7
7.4
6.8
564.7
570.0
571.1
5.7
5.9
5,4
October
November
December
315.3
315.3
315.5
3.4
3.3
3.5
321.0
319.0
319.6
3.2
3.0
2.5
209.2
209.6
209.8
2.7
3.4
4.3
449.0
450.3
451.2
6.4
5.9
5.8
574.6
576.4
575.9
6.5
5.8
7.1
January
February
March
316.1
317.4
318.8
3.7
3.8
3.7
321.3
318.7
320.2
2.2
1.3
1.4
211.0
211.9
212.6
3.4
3.4
2.4
453.5
455.8
459.0
5.5
5.5
6.0
578.0
582.7
588.1
8.2
8.3
8.5
April
May
June
320.1
321.3
322.3
3.7
3.4
2.8
321.9
323.3
323.5
1.6
1.7
0.9
212.9
213.1
213.3
1.6
0.9
0.2
462.2
464.5
466.4
5.8
5.3
4.7
600.6
603.4
604.7
7.3
6.6
4.7
July
August
September
322.8
323.5
324,5
2.6
3.3
323.8
320.7
323.8
2.2
(NA)
212.9
212.2
212.6
0.0
(NA)
468.2
468.7
469.2
(NA)
603.5
605.1
604.8
2.8
(NA)
October
November
December
325.5
326.6
1984
1985
328.4
(NA)
212.9
(NA)
(NA)
605.8
(NA)
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.
DECEMBER 1985
95
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F
I
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Q
Italy
Year
and
month
737. Index©
I
CONSUMER PRICES—Continued
Canada
737c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
733. Index ©
733c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
|
STOCK PRICES
19. United
States, index
of stock
prices, 500
common
stocks ©
748. Japan,
index of
stock
prices @
745. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices ©
746. France,
index of
stock
prices ©
742. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices ©
747. Italy,
index of
stock
prices @
743. Canada,
index of
stock
prices ©
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967-100)
January
February
March
602.7
610.5
616.0
14.3
14.2
13.8
312.5
313.9
317.1
4.2
3.4
4.2
156.9
159.7
165.2
533.3
530.8
544.2
126.0
131.9
143.9
159.1
165.0
179.1
371.9
381.6
388.3
95.5
109.1
118.7
229.5
236.2
243.6
April
May
June
622.2
628.2
632.2
14.0
13.2
12.7
317.1
317.9
321.5
5.2
5.9
4.7
171.6
178.5
181.0
559.7
573.4
583.3
157.0
158.6
159.5
188.7
200.4
196.8
410.4
403.7
426.1
115.8
111.6
110.3
264,5
273.5
276.5
July
August
September
638.5
641.1
649.4
12.4
11.8
11.7
322.9
324.5
324.5
5.6
5.0
4.9
181.6
176.7
181.8
598.7
606.4
619.7
169.0
166.9
164.7
206.1
220.2
224.9
418.9
431.8
422.6
112.9
120.5
118.4
280.0
280.6
282.4
October
November
December
660.4
667.0
670.3
11.1
11.5
11.5
326.5
326.5
327.5
5.4
5.1
4.6
182.4
179.7
178.8
621.0
621.5
638.6
173.4
176.7
179.2
225.3
239.5
247.6
411.2
424.1
432.6
111.6
112.7
112.8
266.8
287.1
288.4
January
February
March
678.3
685.8
690.6
11.1
10.9
10.9
329.2
331.1
331.9
4.3
4.7
3.4
181.0
171.1
171.3
687.6
699.6
736 1
185.3
182.3
178.4
275.9
263.4
261 1
457.2
457.2
485 3
125.3
128.7
128 5
279.0
273.4
269 2
April
May
June
695.4
699.6
703.8
10.0
9.4
8.1
332.7
333.3
334 7
3.1
2.3
3 0
171.4
170.3
166 6
776.0
744.6
711 2
177.9
178.0
175 8
285.4
277.1
272 3
495.0
489.6
124.9
122.5
262.5
251.9
ACQ 7
11 Q fi
pci
July
August
September
705.9
708,0
713.0
6.8
6.4
6.8
336.6
336.6
336.9
2.5
3.4
4.2
164.3
178.9
180.7
701.3
728.8
738.6
167.2
172.0
178.3
256.7
274.3
287.0
447.5
478.6
497.0
121.4
128.7
127.6
241.8
269.6
270.4
October
November
December
720.1
724.4
729.5
7.2
7.7
8.9
337.5
339.7
339.9
4.3
5.2
4.4
179.3
180,9
178.9
760.5
774.7
804.7
185.2
185.1
187.4
287.9
286.0
285.2
503.7
525.9
551.2
127.4
130.5
130.5
265.9
267.6
271.2
January
February
March
736.8
744.2
749.4
10.7
11.1
10.4
341.3
343.5
344.3
5.3
4.5
4.0
186.7
196.8
195.2
839.5
851.9
900.4
195.1
202.0
213.4
294.3
307.9
317.8
578.1
585.1
592.3
147.2
164.1
165.0
April
May
June
756.1
760.6
764 4
10.0
9.4
74
345.7
346.5
348 3
3.4
2.9
3 6
196.5
201.1
pnR ^
880.3
890.6
915 0
212.5
218.7
234 2
328.9
336.4
337 2
592.0
607.0
591 3
i qq n
July
August
September
766.7
768.2
771.3
5.2
6.0
349.5
350.1
350.5
3.1
3.4
209.4
204.8
200.2
941.6
915.9
915.0
234.8
237.4
253.2
321.9
316.6
312.3
568.4
597.0
605.7
212.9
229.9
246.4
314.0
318.6
297.4
October
November
December
780.6
786.1
202.5
214.8
P224.9
P937.3
rp926.1
P941.7
273.6
rp289.3
P295.3
rp299.6
rp329.5
P347.2
617.4
rp646.8
P643.6
rp253.5
rp264.0
P279.3
302.2
322.8
P333.0
1983
1984
...,
n
1985
351.7
353.1
164.4
188.7
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.
96
DECEMBER 1985
•
293.2
293.2
295.2
297.8
309.2
oOo. o
APPENDIXES
B. Current Adjustment Factors
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
13 New business incorporations1
.. .
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Aug. Sept.
Oct.
145.7 101.0
90.3
92.7
83.1
87.5 105.7
86.3
81.4
95 9 105 6 125 2
91.3 103.1 105.3 106.0
99.1 103.3
98.5
94 0 105 0
104.7
15. Profits after taxes per dollar
of sales,
manufacturing corporations2
33. Net change in mortgage debt
13
95.7
108.8
-1229 -2514 -1691
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding in current dollars'*
517. Defense Department
gross obligations
incurred1
1985
July
Feb.
Jan.
100 2
99.8
608
100.0
1003
92 7
Dec.
96 9
95 7
815
1376
939
-584
99.9 100.0 100.3 100 2 100.1
99.9
99.9
99.9
446
Nov.
439
255
99 9 100 0
. . . 119.0
96.2 104.1
98.9
87.8
80.9
88.5
86.9 117.7 112.7 105.4 101 8
525. Defense Department prime contract awards . 105.5
96.6 114.5
94.3
86.4
84.9
75.7
78.6 191.6
80.5 100.1
. . . . 103.3 103.2 103.1 103.7 101.4
98.9
97.0
93.8
98.6
99.7 100.1
100,1
543. Defense Department gross unpaid
obligationsoutstanding
.
570. Employment, defense products industries . . 100.2 100.0 100.0
1
99.8
97.0
90.9
99.1 100.7
99.3 100.0 100.0 100.1 100.5
95.8 102.8 100.0 104.3
98.3
99.9 100.4
95.6 101.8
604. Exports of domestic agricultural products . 106.7 105.2 115.0 103.0 100.9
94.8
83.5
83.0
91.8 100.8 108.8 106.3
95.5
99.5 106.0
580. Defense Department net outlays
101.0
93.8
90.7 110.3
99.9 102.8 105.1 102.7
614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum
products1
99.2
91.9
90.2
616. Imports of automobiles and parts1
109.4
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery
....
86.0
84.1 106.1
84.3
97.9
98.1
95.6
98.3
98.1 114.9 113.3 107.0 115.0 102.8
95.3
96.4
94.3
107.2 118.4 104.3
98.4
87.8
87.9 104.3
NOTE: These series are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis rather than by the source agency. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be used in BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST whenever they are available. For a description
of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, THE X-ll VARIANT OF THE CENSUS METHOD
II SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM.
factors are the products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
'Quarterly
series; factors are placed in the middle month of the quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly totals to
yield the seasonally adjusted net change. These factors are computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program.
''These factors apply only to the loans portion of this series.
97
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
Year
Jan.
Feb.
May
Apr.
Mar.
12.
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct. 1 Nov. Dec.
IQ
93.0
92.3
89.7
98.7
98.1
92.6
90.9
100.0
96.1
92.3
93.7
93.6
91.6
90.1
99.4
96 .9
93.6
91 .8
98.4
96.1
92.8
93.1
97.4
100.0
102.9
97.4
1 0 Ji . 2
111 .8
98.2
99,2
100,6
96.9
103.2
113.7
99.7
99 .4
99.9
98 .2
102.1
113.6
97.8
100.5
99.8
100.0
103.7
113.3
106 .0
114.2
117 .7
109.9
100 2
114.3
122.1
128.5
129.1
124.5
120 .1)
113. H
112.1
116.9
106,3
115.4
116.0
112.7
101.3
H4.5
120.2
128.5
127.9
121.9
121 .9
115.2
112.0
117.5
107.7
114.6
115.9
112.6
103.3
113.3
120.8
127.7
129.1
121.1
119.1
114.7
114.8
115.7
109.9
114.6
115.5
113.4
108.7
116.1
123.5
129.3
126.7
118.9
117.3
112.1
116.4
117.0
89.3
91 .4
95.1
88.6
97.7
97,7
93.5
88.9
98.3
99.6
88.9
93.2
89.7
92.2
94.2
68.0
98.5
98.5
93,5
88.5
98.6
98.3
90.8
94.0
90.1
93.1
93.7
87.8
98.6
97.5
93.8
68.3
100.1
37.3
!U .4
1*4.5
1963 . . .
1964...
196 5 . . .
1966,..
1967...
1968, . .
196 9 . . .
94.0
96.8
100.4
102.0
97.0
104.1
112.9
97.8
100.8
102 . 8
96.7
104.8
113.7
197l!!!
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975,..
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985...
104.5
1113 . 5
116.7
103.7
113.2
117.1
110.0
99.4
114.1
120.7
127.3
128.1
127.9
120,7
115.6
113.3
117.2
109.5
99.7
114.2
120.3
125.2
128.3
128.1
121.6
113.2
111 .4
115.9
13.
1951 . . .
1 952 . . .
1953.,,
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961 . . .
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
196 9 . . .
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981 . . .
1982...
1983., .
1984..,
1985...
1951 . . .
1952..
1953.
. .
1954...
1955...
19 5 6 . . .
1957,..
1958.. .
1959...
I960...
1961 . . .
1962 . . .
1 963
1964...
1965.. .
1966...
1967.. .
1968...
1969...
1970.. .
1971...
1972.. .
1973...
1974. . .
1975.. .
1976. . .
1977 . . .
1978., .
1979.. .
1980.. .
1981.. .
1982...
1983., .
1984. . .
1985...
92.3
91.5
90,8
98.9
96,3
93.2
92.3
96.4
96.0
93.2
93.3
95.2
97.8
100.5
99.3
100.4
106,2
113.2
104.0
110.4
115.8
115.4
114.5
112.3
115.7
122.8
129.3
128.4
119.1
118.2
112.4
115.2
115.8
91.2
94.0
86.6
95.4
98.2
94.6
90.4
96.1
98.7
91.7
93.8
93,3
90.4
94.2
89.5
95.1
98.2
94.2
89.2
96.6
98.8
90.9
93.8
93.1
94.6
91 .8
91.2
98.5
95.4
92.6
94.1
98.5
94.6
91.7
93.6
95.0
89.4
92 .3
98.6
95.2
91 .7
95.3
97.8
94.1
91 .8
94.4
90.1
94.5
89.9
94.2
97.8
96.4
91.3
95.2
97.4
93.9
92.8
94.1
96 .0
96.2
100.1
98.2
102.3
107.7
112.6
95.8
100.2
99.9
97.4
101 .7
109.0
111 .5
96.1
100.8
99.5
98.2
101.6
112.8
113.5
95.4
98.9
100.6
95.4
103.8
110.5
111.5
96 .0
100.2
100.9
96.1
103.8
112.7
112.8
89.7
92.2
94.3
88.1
98.3
97.9
93.6
68.6
99.0
98.4
90.4
93.9
94.7
97.3
100.4
102.6
97.0
104.7
113.1
103.4
109.9
116.1
114.7
112.7
111 .4
113.9
125.3
127.3
127.9
120.6
118.7
112.6
114.4
119.1
109.0
117.7
112.4
108.5
111.2
115.5
124.0
127.6
130.0
121 .1
117.6
110.4
115.8
119.7
110.6
118.9
112.2
103.0
110.5
117.2
126.4
130.3
127.0
121.6
114.8
111.5
118.0
117.7
111.4
118.5
114.1
101.7
111.1
119.7
126.2
129.9
127,9
121.1
117.4
112.9
117.8
116.0
112.3
118.1
110.7
101.8
114.3
119.0
126 .3
127 .5
129.7
122.7
115.2
114.4
116.3
116 .6
104.7
113.6
117.2
109.8
99.8
114.2
121 .0
127.0
128.5
126.9
121 .0
114,1
112.5
116.7
NUMBER OF NEW BUSINESS INCORPORATIONS
(NUMBER)
7,016
6,937
7,0 82
6,648
6,759
6,796
6,880
6,952
6,995
7,119
7,181
21,167
a[ 304
8,638
11,902
11,620
11 ,250
11,042
16,346
16,561
13,60?
15,599
14,924
15,993
16,784
18,087
16,703
18,061
8',3 51
8,937
11,843
12,449
11,359
11,049
16,255
15,274
14,570
15,758
1 5 , 3 90
16 ,326
16,854
17,451
15,987
18,041
8^634
9,155
11,679
11,591
11 ,367
11 ,042
16,548
15,233
14,658
15,670
15,563
15,917
17,131
17,266
16,244
18,538
8^534
9,276
11,215
11,888
11,507
10,636
16,604
15,280
15,327
15,372
15,305
16,132
16,664
17,057
16,760
18,663
8! 785
9,158
11,521
12,245
11 , 1 0 9
11 ,752
16,296
15,176
15,298
15,245
15,682
16 ,473
16,580
16,644
17 ,627
18,723
8^605
9,43 6
12,072
11 , 9 9 9
11,739
12,032
15,204
15,630
15,431
14,947
15,536
16,282
17,017
16,577
17,799
18,839
8,757
9,772
11,655
11,851
11 ,6 86
12,504
15,658
15,828
15,492
15,171
1 5 , 431
16,550
16,844
16,074
16,300
19,40 7
8,515
9,882
11,572
11 ,707
11,593
13,644
15,813
15,114
15,277
15,056
16,093
15,692
16,901
16,3 43
17,674
19,9 47
8,185
10,085
11 ,968
11,193
11 ,318
13,933
15,728
15,112
15,402
15,249
15 ,689
16,948
17,136
15,764
17,818
20,582
8,341
8,698
10 ,730
11 , 6 6 8
11,925
11,251
13,669
15,383
15,035
16,035
14,892
16,275
16,728
16,994
16,233
17,654
21 , 0 9 3
8)265
8,556
11 ,212
11,761
11,186
10,788
14,599
15,695
14,264
16,149
14,951
15,759
16,804
17,606
16,206
17,958
20 , 8 9 0
22 *196
22,563
25,270
27,796
26 ,511
24,809
29,613
34,311
36,414
42,043
44,230
46,039
43,330
49,999
53,044
22^968
21,034
25 , 0 8 4
28,752
27,056
24,931
29 , 772
33,844
39,43 4
42,014
44,175
48,588
47,234
48,296
5 3 , 5 91
21^346
22,883
26,231
28,964
26,458
25,076
31,000
35,018
37,847
43,299
43,359
47,972
46,899
48,032
53,424
\ 1 \ 82 9
22,814
26,630
28,522
29,071
2<i,708
30,80 8
3<,529
39,585
43,401
42,240
49,413
46 876
48,903
53,933
21 , 8 7 4
23,960
26,270
2 8,2 86
27,562
26 , 6 3 2
28 , 7 8 4
35,256
39,059
44,317
42 ,710
48,997
46,995
50 ,211
51 ,166
21 1 7 96
24,481
26,175
27,999
25,785
26,307
31,420
36,694
39,860
43,504
40,648
49,172
45,936
50,992
54,729
23 ,366
21,614
24,677
2 6 , 7 89
27,477
2 7 , 7 90
28,655
31 , 0 3 7
36,874
40,152
44,513
43,621
49,038
44,525
48,601
52,092
22,871
21 , 7 96
25,012
26,365
26,689
26,495
27,810
31 ,301
38,180
41 ,007
43,63 4
44,255
48,631
46,981
52 ,828
51 ,723
22 ,594
22,181
23,623
27,168
26 ,240
26,313
28,359
31 ,921
37 ,271
41,553
44,173
45,746
48,450
45,552
50,445
52,237
24 , 26 3
21,712
25,356
27,529
26,809
25,404
29,079
32,160
38,213
41,437
45,295
45,945
47,947
45,530
50,441
52,587
23,125
22,217
25,510
26,234
26,718
25,555
28,634
33,183
38,308
41,423
44,540
46,750
49,413
48,474
51,642
53,490
8,096
8,696
11 ,604
11,560
11,139
10,791
15,577
15,959
14,097
15,881
14,985
15,867
17,021
17,625
16,583
18,238
20,619
22,404
22 ,272
25,634
27,699
24,881
25,003
29,282
33,124
38,900
42,179
43,563
47,840
47,556
57,507
51,557
53,503
21.7
26 .2
29.6
37.9
42.9
54.1
64.4
73.6
53.7
81 .5
106.6
161.0
96^
89.3
103.2
108.2
104.5
75.0
137.3
168.8
101 .6
205.8
337.3
391 .1
257.1
168.5
168.3
182.2
243.2
341.4
645.1
2158,1
17 83,3
16.0
17.7
2 9.?
19.5
31.
2 7.*3
57..
47.8
41 .i
42.1
42. (
49.2
55.
65.4
71 .(
65.3
65.0
50.6
70 .2
60 .9
126.6
88.1
80.9
90.5
94.7
123 .9
111 .0
146.6
112 .0
95 = 5 1 0 3 . 5
119.3
113,4
88.6
79.6
84.1
90.0
120.0
139.4
224.6
150.9
220 .7
191.3
252.4
137.2
204.6
213 .1
343.3
3 84.8
2 47.6
211 .8
248.2
194.2
324.4
205 .0
187.8
177.1
274,2
190.8
485.3
789,2
836.0
913.5
1154,7
10 8 6 . 4
3479.7
1713.1
103.8
109.8
116.5
114.2
111 .9
111.6
115.0
124.0
128.1
128.8
120 .3
118.2
111.8
115.1
118.2
90.6
94.2
89.3
94.9
98.1
95.1
90,3
96.0
98.3
92.2
93.5
93.5
95.8
100.0
100.3
96.6
103.1
112,0
112.6
104.7
111 .4
118.5
112.3
102.2
112,0
118.6
126.3
129.2
128.2
121 .8
115.8
112,9
117.4
116.8
89.5
93.3
91 ,7
91.0
98.4
96.6
92.4
92.2
98.7
95.5
• 92.1
93.7
95 .2
98.6
100.2
99.4
,100.0
106.8
112.9
106 .4
108.5
115.9
114.9
109.2
107.0
115.6
123.2
128.2
128.3
122.4
118.6
113.2
114.8
117.1
20,628
21,295
21 ,6 42
25,289
26,730
35,424
35,660
33,976
33,133
49,149
47,068
42,835
47,027
45,877
48,236
50,769
52,804
48,934
54,640
24,007
25,457
29,739
35,195
34,751
34,597
40,081
47,199
46 ,054
46 ,171
45,476
47 ,213
49,190
50,881
48.181
51,792
59,936
24,702
25,950
33,546
34,989
34,250
32,830
43,845
47,037
43,396
48,065
44,82 8
47,901
50,553
52,225
49,022
53,850
62,602
66^510
66,480
76,585
85,512
80,025
74,816
90,385
103,173
113,695
127,356
131,764
142,599
137,463
146,327
160,059
65,499
71,255
79,075
84,807
82,418
79,647
91,012
106,479
118,504
131,222
125,598
147,582
139,807
150,106
159,828
65,591
73,312
80,322
80,406
80,598
84,824
94,259
112,325
122,712
132 ,320
133,622
146,119
137,058
151,874
156,052
6 9,792
66,201
76,500
81,462
7 8,40 8
75,962
86,995
98,467
115,421
125,039
133,398
140,535
144,916
151,511
153,640
159,580
55.3
74.9
81.7
134.6
121.1
134 .7
175.3
201 .3
197.2
184.8
296 .2
278.0
3 53 .4
331 .7
347.8
302.2
340.9
272.7
249.1
3 96.7
544.4
513.6
595.4
755,0
1119.2
716.5
610.9
697.7
547.1
708.2
1615.9
2394.6
4399.2
6976.1
63.3
71.9
92.7
122.6
107.4
144.8
161 . 1
201.6
172.0
269.0
250.4
301 .8
83,779
92,991
102,620
117,885
140,416
140,7 93
135,758
151,479
191,489
182,604
183,127
182,895
187,514
196,866
204,136
200,285
206,762
233,403
2 73,994
263,801
287,547
317,444
329,133
319,003
326,282
374,123
437,398
479,950
524,296
531,519
581,216
565 ,839
601,947
635,519
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
n .1
23,5
22.8
21 . 1
26.4
26 .6
29.7
17.6
27.5
42.5
36 >0
41 9
57.1
84.0
71 .9
69.2
86. A
121.0
32.8
38.5
34.7
59.9
52,6
56.2
50 .9
73.3
80.5
91 .5
32.4
41 .6
36.7
43 .0
51.4
61 . 4
49 .2
126.4
83.8
88.5
39.8
32.2
32.5
48.7
44.3
65.4
51 .2
61 .7
69.2
91 .6
28.5
32.6
36 .0
55.0
43.5
SO.8
54.5
97.6
102.7
146.6
33.8
36.4
33.1
39.3
45.4
48.1
54.7
80.6
116.7
96 .2
3 5.1
37.1
29.0
34.8
50.0
47.4
47.3
50.4
81.5
70.3
119.1
18.8
36.8
35.1
42.8
39.9
52.9
56.7
53.2
84.5
119.2
98.8
19.4
23 .4
43.8
40.1
41 .6
50.3
45 .3
57.1
59.6
79.0
65.5
81 .3
93.4
133.1
96.4
93.4
91 .4
92.6
147 .9
2 49.5
190.1
168.0
375.7
357.8
233 .3
473.9
160.4
200 .5
381 .2
428.2
S850.5
920.0
3074.3
144.5
144.6
123.6
104.6
74.7
91 .9
170.5
165.8
127.9
180.2
215.5
175.9
373.6
305.9
178,8
273.2
436.7
408.5
1020.2
2188,6
3427.4
125.6
121 . 5
69.9
72.6
90.3
112,7
251.9
147 .0
204.6
206.2
153.4
242.0
305.6
577.8
231 .8
212.2
445.7
619.5
1425.6
829.2
2783.7
95.2
135.0
178.1
108.9
65.8
62.8
169.6
155.6
253 .6
190.2
232.7
222.4
264.0
338.2
206.4
287.4
345.4
450.4
2759.6
1353.1
196 8.7
114.6
105.0
129.2
93.9
58.6
73.7
232.9
115.8
113.5
189.5
217.0
205.5
250 .3
97.0
127.0
186 .2
1002 .9
752.3
1024.7
947 .2
2045.6
93.8
82 ,1
108.0
81.6
65.4
116.4
144.8
144.7
153.0
185.7
306.8
1295.4
183.6
115.7
475.3
395.8
359.2
897.9
1299.0
1816.8
119.3
71.7
106.7
70.0
58.6
127.1
119.8
129.0
208.6
218.7
344.7
252.9
277.6
200.3
178.9
184.3
239.3
618.8
733.3
1624.5
98.3
97.6
161 .5
195.5
83.4
96.9
121.7
111.3
86.8
2 45.6
2 42.6
136.9
200.4
168,3
196.5
138.0
288.3
626 .7
794.0
868.5
NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reorinted for the convenience of the user.
98.8
97.7
93.3
90.3
99.4
96.5
92.5
93.6
94 .6
98.6
99.7
100.1
98.4
103.0
113.5
106.4
108.0
114.9
115.8
112.9
104.4
114.6
121.5
128.5
127.9
120.6
119.4
114.0
114.4
116.7
89.1
94.0
90.9
91 .4
98.7
95.6
92.5
93.9
98.2
94.9
92.2
93.8
95 .7
98.7
100 .2
98.3
101.5
107.6
112.4
20,689
22 ,6 40
25,924
27,870
34,808
36,132
34,355
34,420
48,104
46,086
46,056
45,56 4
46,523
48,887
50,261
50,278
52,186
56,225
CURRENT LIABILITIE S OF BUSINESS FAILURES
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
112.9
83.2
110.1
103.8
80.1
118.8
131.9
153.8
148.5
119.3
209.8
372.1
206.4
207 .3
203.0
2 42.8
428.2
536.9
1309.3
1125.6
2429.4
88.7
92.6
92.3
89.6
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
7,214
14.
Annual
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
(1967-100)
88,8
91,3
93.1
89.1
98.2
98.2
93.6
88,2
99,8
97.4
92.4
94.0
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956.. .
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962.,.
III Q
II Q
1
350.8
360.9
330,1
301 . 8
246.2
303.3
450.3
569.1
466.5
467.5
801.0
905.8
813.3
987.0
542.2
716.4
1246.0
1373.6
5180.0
4234.2
8931.1
74.2
59 .2
102.2
101 .2
101 .7
143 .0
133.2
164.2
160 .4
239.9
288.5
334.6
335.4
361 .5
377.1
275.4
214.6
249.3
654.4
418.4
571 .8
585.9
603.1
670.0
819.9
1013.0
565.2
685 .8
1794.0
.182 2.2
5209.8
3129.5
6798.0
66.7
77 .2
117 .6
104.2
119.2
140.2
145.6
161.1
163.2
244.9
255.0
299.2
311.4
251 .4
376.2
347.1
207.4
3 40.4
386.3
385.0
448.3
650.0
894.1
1685 .1
661.6
484.3
850.8
718,1
886.9
2143 .4
2826,3
4309,9
259.5
283 .3
394.2
462 .6
449.4
562.7
615.3
728.2
692.8
938.6
1090.1
1213 .6
1352 .6
1329.2
1321 .6
1385.6
1265 .2
940 .9
1142.1
1887.8
1916.9
2000.2
2298.7
3053 .1
43 80 .2
3011 .3
3095 .3
2656 .0
2667 .4
4635.1
6955 .2
15610 .7
16072 .9
(DECEMBER 1985)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
Jan.
525.
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962 . . .
1963.. .
1964...
1965...
1966 . . .
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985...
Mar.
Feb.
3,976
2,528
3,682
616
1,049
1,474
1,756
2,103
1,625
1,850
1,989
3,271
2,429
2,372
2,097
2,952
3,364
2,887
3,398
2,855
2,508
3,520
2,824
3,218
3,731
3,536
3,354
4,853
5,771
5,491
7,155
9 , 7 56
16,90 8
15,089
3,001
2,959
2,381
826
1,028
1,502
1 ,563
2,243
1,966
1,90 4
1,987
2,552
2,463
1,966
2,451
2,956
3,034
3,124
2,90 4
2,904
3,104
3,025
2,947
2,990
3,168
6,713
4,819
4,90 9
5,903
5,887
7,590
9,870
7,351
13,779
3,493
5,479
2,295
56 4
1,306
1,388
1,927
1,232
1,898
1,754
2,186
2,180
2,611
2,958
1,846
2,906
3,930
3,445
3,441
2,623
2,704
2,982
2,899
3,144
4,061
3,101
4,369
4,741
4,554
6,839
7,514
13,761
13,042
14,273
543.
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
1955..
1956.,
1957..
1958..
1959..
1960 . .
1961 . .
1962 . .
1963..
1964..
1965..
1966 . .
1967..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..
1976..
1977..
1978..
1979. .
1980..
1981 . .
1982..
1983..
1984..
1985..
38,361
38,587
32,254 3 1 , 2 9 3
23,715
23,685
26,293
26,581
22,051
21,957
23,663
23,641
21,509
21,314
22,795
23,041
24,633
24,506
24,531
24,304
23,003
23,777
23,434 2 3 , 4 6 6
27,275 2 7 , 6 2 1
35,350 3 5 , 7 1 9
36,616
37,236
39,531
39,147
32,561
32,041
30,181
30,851
32,879
32,832
34,280
34,426
37,446
37,673
40,052 3 9 , 8 7 5
41,358 4 1 , 4 5 9
49,258
50,229
57,304 5 8 , 4 0 1
66,702
49,455
71,178 7 1 , 6 6 5
82,087
83,608
98,818 1 0 2 , 6 7 7
122,628 1 2 3 , 8 0 3
142,169 1 4 5 , 6 4 8
580.
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954.. .
1955...
1956...
1957 . . .
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
196 3 . . .
1964. . .
1965. . .
1966 . . .
1967.. ,
1968...
1969...
1970 . . .
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976.. .
1977.. .
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982 . . .
1983...
1984...
1985 . . .
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
3,46 2
3,295
265
481
1,310
1,934
1 ,81 9
1,704
2 ,102
1,93 8
2 ,308
2,946
1 ,814
2,075
2,995
3,225
3,308
3,378
2,734
2 , 7 46
3,092
3,589
3,347
3 ,667
3,062
4,114
4,247
6,509
6 ,029
6 ,773
9,817
10 ,209
16,140
25,552
3,399
3,148
390
913
2,194
1,891
1,671
2,328
1,298
1,922
2,491
2,044
2,149
1,997
2,988
3,513
3,479
3,613
2,765
3 ,181
3,06 6
2,532
3,292
3,051
3,413
4,729
5,332
4,56 8
5,825
9,835
9,049
17 , 2 9 8
9,463
7,017
Q
DEFENSE DEPARTMENT PRIME CONTRACT AWARDS FOR WORK PERFORMED IN THE UNITED STATE
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1 ,630
3,46 0
3,861
3,600
3,172
3,077
3,508
3,363
3,590
3,586
3,672
4,068
4,253
4,054
3,992
4,634
6,028
6,794
6,471
6,495
6,201
6 , 2 80
6,256
6,827
7,150
7,175
7,476
8,493
9,404
10,900
12,639
14,152
17,058
18,448
2,892
2,088
2,46 2
1,068
1,46 8
1,404
2,312
2,142
2,204
1 , 726
2,274
2,295
2,023
2,502
2,843
3 ,461
3,026
3,488
2 ,825
2,591
2,928
2,985
2,56 8
4,372
4,023
3,489
4,303
4,970
4,688
6,944
8,505
10,518
10,132
11,398
3,760
3,059
2,038
1,326
841
1,7 82
80 8
3,043
1,893
2,252
1,855
2,140
2,413
2 . 6 40
2,150
2,978
4,040
4,203
3,070
2,545
2,231
2 . 7 86
3,171
3,211
3,814
3,543
4,654
6,204
4,825
6,901
7,967
9,657
10,111
9,459
2,759
4,292
2,042
1,116
1,287
2,024
1,093
2,228
2,222
1,963
2,229
2,127
2,366
1,910
2 , 3 90
3,693
3,566
3,067
2,744
2,896
2,324
3,154
2,897
3,402
3 , 6 80
3,854
4,300
7,081
4,144
6,450
7,041
14,296
10,814
11,644
4,097
1,158
2,035
886
971
1,196
1,619
1,511
2 ,192
2,151
1 ,993
1,888
4,241
1,002
1,089
767
1,231
2,108
1 ,310
1,692
1 ,96 4
2,200
2 ,143
2,167
2,580
2,313
3,940
3,545
3,93 7
2,896
1,963
2,775
3,165
3 , 6 90
3,173
3,001
7 82
3,093
2 ,638
2,962
3,553
4,419
3,652
4,623
4,924
4,947
7,188
9,504
8,928
10,727
12,647
2,916
3,074
2,024
3,295
3,635
2,53 5
4,624
3,928
5,650
6,211
8,845
8,610
11,017
10 , 1 0 1
2,333
2,116
1,004
2,454
597
2,091
1,297
2,308
1,7 93
2,250
2,033
2,032
2,635
2,163
2,419
3,541
3,720
3,836
2 , 6 80
2,113
2,982
2,725
3,235
3,504
3,102
4,985
4,255
4,855
6,232
6,893
9,325
10,296
10,921
11,441
2,823
2,143
959
2,271
1,136
1,972
1,594
1,880
1,937
1,327
2,494
2,814
2,119
1,967
2 , 7 90
3 , 3 83
3,626
3,903
2,987
3,46 4
2,606
2,946
2,992
3,863
2,866
4,897
5,279
4,343
5,619
5,639
4,46 6
5,423
2,820
12,901
51 , 1 1 8
33,567
34,769
34,907
26,919
2 9,43 5 28,405
25,440
24,475
24,536
24,762
25,287
25,857
24,666
23,330
22,768
24,007
23,656
23,532
22,955
21,148
21,042
22,707
22,539
22,718
24,242
24,515
24,939
22,824
23,126
23,602
23,043
23,914
23 , 5 5 7
24,651
24,261
23,762
32,030
30,322
29,597
37,417
3 5,2 96 3 6 , 6 8 3
38,421
37,622
36,914
35,445
36,855
37,656
30,787
30,279
30,979
29,077
31,098
30,737
32,417
32,772
32,976
35,877
35,693
35,140
38,909
38,389
38,456
40,959
4 0 , 0 86
39,918
43,612
42,970
42,494
52,625
52,170
51,236
60,549
60,723
59,348
6 7 , 7 83 6 7 , 9 9 6
69,360
74,592
74,252
73,912
86,126
85,165
84,994
108,428 108,841 109,654
126 , 1 6 5 1 2 6 , 5 3 2 1 2 9 , 7 2 0
149,369 149,452 151,538
50,051
33,695
25,793
49,349
33,287
24,076
...
47,419
33,442
23,911
26,463
23 ,910
22,846
23,225
23 ,210
24,463
23,555
22,558
23,257
23,945
24,179
23,365
33 , 1 0 9
36,188
3 9 , 7 41
41,43 7
43,251
53,383
61,833
68,662
74,870
87,968
110 , 8 8 5
131,172
152,828
36 ,249
39,104
34,414
30,221
31,069
33,350
36,666
39,621
42,140
42,558
54,262
62 ,028
79,219
75,133
89,857
110,787
130,829
156,271
34,154
36,625
39,960
33,613
29,938
30,671
33,985
36,285
39,894
41 ,805
43,663
52,697
62,730
70,629
76,745
91,896
111 ,857
133,056
156,950
1,975
3,613
4,107
3,369
2,154
3 , 7 47
3,989
3,270
3,004
3,601
3 ,43 5
3 , 588
3,513
3,800
4,179
3,322
4,001
3,961
4,900
6,091
6 ,025
6,608
6,194
6 , 0 82
6 , 3 41
6,366
6,46 7
3,166
3,562
3 ,375
3 ,624
3,540
3 , 7 81
4,187
4,226
4,237
4,036
4,884
6,460
6 , 724
6 ,490
6,323
5,813
7 ,477
7 ,961
8,375
9 ,500
11,358
12,619
15,075
16 , 8 0 4
17,794
7 ,672
8,069
9,056
9 ,400
11,188
12,833
15,670
17 , 5 2 9
18,525
6,194
6,762
2,317
3,804
4,079
3,220
3,118
3,121
3,621
3,429
3,610
3,490
3,770
4,302
4,048
4,590
4,236
4 , 7 53
5,830
6,959
6 ,714
6,416
5,982
6,623
5,896
6,721
7,53 2
7,101
8,404
8,217
9,836
11,061
13,43 3
15,379
16,854
18,609
2,523
3,591
3 ,86 7
3,758
3,253
3,917
3,455
3,607
3,631
3,176
3,711
4,256
4,057
4,674
4,035
5,214
5,061
6,769
6,571
5,655
6,540
7,130
6,597
7,001
6,719
7,027
8,023
9,072
9,361
11,537
13,264
15,334
17,189
18,953
3,133
4,196
3,621
3 ,041
3,049
2,950
2 ,911
3,328
3,86 8
3 ,117
3 ,097
3,254
3,636
3,692
3,734
3,720
4,176
4,356
3,566
4,069
5,521
7,279
6,022
6,715
7,302
5,771
6,107
5,868
3 ,487
3,649
3,665
3,713
4,136
4,203
3,768
4,255
5,315
6,404
6 ,343
6,838
6,519
5,712
5,766
6,598
7
,742
8,040
8,394
10 , 4 9 4
11,193
13,889
16 ,312
16 , 9 7 5
18,405
7 ,962
7,229
8,119
9,638
10,339
11 ,425
13,809
15,050
18,455
19,181
2,983
4,229
3,981
3,062
3,447
3,288
3,412
3,686
3,607
3 , 6 82
3,80 8
4,149
4,193
3,949
4,261
5,599
6,43 4
6,663
6 ,47 3
6,276
5,959
5,502
6,527
7,584
7,251
7,53 0
8,046
8,592
9,993
11,993
14,014
16,881
17,463
19,46 9
NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are r e p r i n t e d f o r the convenience of the user.
9,411
9,43 9
6,542
3,510
3,596
5,210
4,213
7,413
6,319
5,941
6,358
6,562
6,80 2
7,052
7,383
10,132
10,632
10,758
8,639
8,032
7,483
8,925
8,636
10,985
11,517
10,886
13,257
18,255
13,657
20,295
23,513
34,471
31,057
32,501
10,671
4,276
4,128
4,107
2,799
5,395
4,226
5,511
5,949
6 ,601
6,169
6,087
7,573
6 ,706
7,507
10,646
10,955
10,946
8,577
7,612
8,991
8,43 7
8,221
10,352
11,156
11,172
13,502
13,707
16,829
20,292
27,674
27,834
32,665
34,189
9,684
8,586
1,614
3,665
4 , 6 40
5,797
5,084
5,912
5,337
5,187
7 , 2 93
7,80 4
6,082
6,039
8,773
10,121
10,413
10,894
8,486
9,391
8,764
9,067
9,631
10,581
9,341
1 3 , 7 40
14,858
15,420
17,473
22,247
23,332
32,930
28,423
45,470
40,236
33,267
20,642
13,288
14,418
20,766
18,769
24,414
23,094
23,237
25,982
28,456
27,960
27,093
30,057
39,713
42,328
42,054
35,445
33,417
33,554
35,956
35,158
41,270
42,974
49,148
54,159
61,885
64,187
81,051
96,778
128,622
12 9 , 4 4 6
155,301
END OF PERIOD
45,535
33,673
23,512
26,168
,22., 10 7
23,684
22,452
23,022
2 4 , 2 41
24,547
44,707
33,716
23 ,034
26,344
22,140
23,755
22 ,323
23,220
23,955
24,831
23,008 23 ,042
26,496
26,105
34,942
34,583
36,831
36,993
40,178 4 0 , 1 2 7
33,234 3 2 , 9 1 2
30 , 0 8 5
29,703
31,450
31,546
34,255
34,026
36,869
36,682
39,772
39,429
41 ,46 8
41,845
47,385
47,366
55,479
54,775
63,440
63,006
63,757 6 9 , 9 1 0
78,183
77,777
92 ,575
91,354
111,866 113 ,647
131,130 1 3 9 , 0 6 2
159,226 1 6 8 , 3 2 1
40,050
33,186
23 , 3 7 4
26,518
22,062
23,755
21,599
22,866
24,522
24,430
23,050
23,275
2 6 , 7 46
35,064
37,033
39,587
3 2 , 7 81
30 ,077
31,046
34,225
36,839
40,137
41 , 3 0 9
48,497
55,771
64,470
70,006
79,936
93,827
119,788
141 ,820
172,010
35,974
30,030
24,526
26,129
22,369
23,682
21,203
22,931
24,659
24,036
23,595
23.698
28,355
35,668
37,490
38,472
31 , 4 9 4
30,541
3 2 , 7 42
34,976
37,817
40,198
41,866
50,761
58,986
67,663
73,179
84,883
105,418
125,570
150,842
DEFENSE DEPARTMENT NET OUTLAYS, MILITARY FUNCTIONS AND MILITARY ASSISTANCE
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1,7 83
3,412
4,022
3,643
3,046
3,059
3,580
3,475
3,552
3,537
3,759
4,096
4,177
4,258
3,899
4,618
6 ,021
6,346
6,714
6,485
6,162
6,205
6,377
6,625
7,503
6,90 8
8,017
8,271
9,466
10,652
12,932
14,689
16,772
17,801
Annual
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
10,470
10,966
8,358
2,006
3 , 3 83
4,364
5,246
5,578
5,489
5,508
6,162
8,003
7,503
7 . 2 96
6,394
8,814
10,328
9,456
9 , 7 43
8 . 3 82
8,316
9,527
8,670
9,352
10,960
13,350
12,542
14,503
16,228
18,217
22,259
33,387
37,301
43,141
DEFENSE DEPARTMENT GROSS UNPAID OBLIGATIONS OUTSTANDING
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
35,974
30,030
24,526
26,129
22,369
23,682
21 , 2 0 3
22,931
24,659
24,036
23,595
23,698
28,355
35,668
37,490
38,472
31 , 4 9 4
30,541
32,742
34,976
37,817
40,198
41 ,866
50,761
58,986
67,663
73,179
84,883
105,418
125,570
150,842
IV Q
3,129
3 , 7 42
3,847
3,160
3,069
3,364
3,173
3,758
3,631
3,628
3,837
4,208
4,188
3,918
4,449
5,521
6,399
6,495
6,747
6,136
6,139
6,237
6,490
6,973
7,285
7,892
8,215
9,026
10,139
12,193
14,277
15,972
1 7 , 7 81
18,687
51,118
33,567
26,919
25,440
24,762
24,666
24,007
22,955
22,707
24,242
22,824
23,043
24,651
32,030
37,417
38,421
35,445
30,787
29,077
32,417
35,877
3 8,90 9
40,959
43,612
52,625
60,549
67,996
74,592
86,126
109,654
129,720
151 , 5 3 8
47,419
33,442
23,911
26,463
23,555
22,558
23,257
23,945
24,179
23,365
34,154
36,625
39,960
33,613
29,938
30,671
33,985
36,285
39,894
41,805
43,663
52,697
62,730
70,629
76,745
91,896
111 ,857
133,056
156,950
40,050
33,186
23,374
26,518
22,062
23,755
21,599
22,866
24,522
24,430
23,050
23,275
2 6 , 7 46
35,064
37,033
39,587
32,781
30,077
31 ,0 46
34,225
36,839
40,137
41 , 3 0 9
48,497
55,771
64,470
70,006
79,936
93,827
119,788
141 ,820
172,010
40,050
33,186
23,374
26,518
22,062
23,755
21,599
22,866
24,522
24,430
23,050
23,275
26,746
35,064
37,033
39,587
3 2 , 7 81
30,077
31,046
34,225
36,839
40,137
41 , 3 0 9
48,497
55,771
64,470
70,006
79,936
93,827
119,788
141,820
172,010
TOT
3,167
3,843
3 ,721
3 ,108
3,010 •
3,399
3 ,416
3,661
3,630
3,645
4,001
4 , 2 90
4,091
4,030
4,423
5,515
6,375
6,80 5
6,764
6 ,094
6,070
6,303
6 ,507
7,398
7,358
7,330
8,687
8,762
10,448
12 , 2 2 4
14,548
17 ,087
17,329
20,152
3,224
3,965
3,631
3 ,160
3,123
3,359
3,335
3,681
3,617
3,752
4,054
4,122
4,163
3,958
4,639
5,627
6,022
6,842
6,553
6,341
6,217
6,232
6,151
7,451
7,518
7,659
8,484
9,407
10,887
11 , 9 9 2
15,298
16 , 7 7 9
18,726
19,899
5,388
10,485
11 ,990
10,612
9,367
9,140
10,689
10,273
10,730
10,636
11,231
1 2 , 3 43
11 , 7 5 2
12,313
11,852
14,152
18,826
18,999
19,919
21 ,985
21,560
23,454
25,139
28,370
32,910
3 8,190
43,916
50,634
54,043
6,994
11,142
11,935
10,248
9,522
10,204
10,638
10,411
10,865
10,206
11 , 2 6 2
12,745
12,331
13,501
12,307
14,851
17,351
20,452
19,775
18,394
18,335
20,475
18,687
20,484
21,346
21,800
24,496
26,345
28,597
33,786
39,530
4 6 , 3 83
51,572
56,087
9 ,027
11,753
11 ,470
9,220
9,593
9,492
10,687
10 , 8 0 9
10,948
11,081
11 , 2 4 1
12,461
12,752
11,283
12,585
16 ,435
20,117
19,028
20,026
20,097
17 , 4 4 2
17,375
18,993
2 1 , 2 96
22,955
22,185
24,205
26 , 6 2 4
30,826
34,611
41 ,712
48,243
52,893
57,055
9,520
11,550
11,199
9,428
9 ,202
10,122
9,924
11 ,100
10,878
11,025
11 ,892
12,620
12,442
11,90 6
13,511
16,663
18,796
20,142
20,064
18,571
18,426
18,772
19,148
21,822
22,161
22,681
2 5 , 3 86
27,195
31 , 4 7 4
36,409
44,123
49,83 8
53,836
58,738
30,929
44,930
46,594
39,508
37,684
38,958
41,938
42,593
43,421
42,948
45,626
50,169
49,277
49,003
50,255
62,101
74,404
7 8,7 87
79,658
76,236
72,648
75,448
7 5,82 7
83,521
88,447
88,426
97,541
105,303
119,267
137,716
163,555
188,380
208,935
225,923
(DECEMBER 1985)
99
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
602.
1951...
1952...
1953.. .
1954...
1955...
1956..,
1957...
1958...
1959...
196 0 . . .
1961..,
1962...
1963.. .
1964...
1965...
1966...
196 7 . . .
1968...
1969...
1970.. .
1971.. .
1972...
1973..,
1974...
1975..,
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980,, .
1981...
1982,..
1983...
1984...
1985.. .
970
1 ,250
1,041
962
1,168
1,289
1,653
1 ,423
1,314
1,534
1,622
1 ,667
987
2,052
1 ,228
2,298
2,639
2,814
2,161
3,406
3,601
4a074
4,955
7,171
9,498
9,113
9,677
9,368
13,281
17,419
18,502
1 8 , 5 84
17,232
17,889
1,022
1,236
971
1,047
1,198
1,290
1,577
1,322
1,256
1,554
1,708
1,819
2,143
2,076
1,623
2,353
2,582
2,775
2,266
3,546
3,694
3,824
5,070
7,549
8,812
8,935
9,900
9,946
13,627
16,984
1 9 , 7 88
18,614
16,312
17,208
1 ,080
1 , 281
1,001
862
1,159
1,348
1,381
1.385
1,:»26
l,i>41
1,755
1 ,664
1,954
2,067
2,739
2,5110
2,51!4
2 ,43 9
3, I t 8
3,375
3,790
3,868
5,311
7,631)
8,720
9,03(
10,16)
11,150
14,317
18,265
21,278
18,46 2
16,690
17,906
604.
Apr.
May
June
July
Sept.
Aug.
Oct.
Nov.
1,101
1,004
951
,111
I ,260
,509
,546
,349
1,328
L ,685
1,80 9
1,542
1,943
2,150
2,349
2,616
2,415
2,631
3,342
3,688
2,669
4,316
6,585
8,687
9,246
9,779
9,364
12,906
16,700
19,217
19,163
16,671
17,033
18,411
1,273
1,026
1,035
1,147
1,215
1,360
1,534
1 ,401
1,376
1,673
1,738
1,717
1,946
2,183
2,378
2,491
2,671
2,972
3,398
3,499
3,196
4,47 3
6,879
8,978
9,426
9,609
9,486
13,460
16,938
18,715
19,153
15,852
17,063
18,395
Dec.
II Q
3,072
3,767
3,013
2,871
3,525
3,927
5,111
4,130
3,896
4,629
5,085
5,150
5,084
6,195
5,590
7,181
7,745
8,028
7,615
10,327
11,085
11,766
15,336
22,350
27,030
27,084
2 9 , 7 44
30,964
41,225
52,668
59,968
55,660
50,234
53,003
3,521
3,330
3.030
3,374
3,415
4,249
4,973
4 , 0 80
3,982
4,914
4,836
5,445
5,663
6,237
6,940
7,216
7,739
8,46 5
9,765
10,798
11,049
11,673
1 6 , 7 83
24,096
25,726
28,693
30,582
35,687
42,922
54,654
58,435
54,952
48,709
53,203
EXPORTS. IiXCLUDING MILITARY AID SHIPMENTS
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1,256
1,138
1,024
1,196
1,113
1,394
1,739
1,364
1,305
1,627
1,637
1,80 4
1,927
2,081
2,406
2,316
2,608
2,855
3,318
3,410
3,631
3,82 0
5,494
8,116
8,718
9 , 3 80
9,955
11,632
13,988
18,56 7
1 9 ,7 86
18,005
16,095
17,520
1,133
1,129
1,008
1,087
1,132
1,413
1,560
1,379
1,320
1,644
1,578
1,764
1,899
2,076
2,299
2,416
2,549
2,740
3,268
3,661
3,746
3,882
5,561
7,654
8,250
9,575
10,531
11,787
14,106
17,647
18,899
18,124
15,655
17,978
1,132
1,063
998
1,091
1,170
1,442
1,674
1,337
1,357
1,643
1,621
1,877
1,837
2,080
2,235
2,484
2,582
2,870
3,179
3,727
3,672
3,971
5,728
8,326
8,758
9,738
10,096
12,268
14,828
18,440
19,750
18,823
16,959
17,705
1,234
970
1,011
1,076
1,223
1,412
1,617
1,361
1,397
1,711
1,698
1 ,750
1,83 9
2,118
2,300
2,46 9
2,601
2,858
3,182
3,704
3,573
4,074
5,865
8,330
8,890
9,994
10,380
11,669
15,706
18,267
19,289
18,060
16,486
19,154
1,233
1,012
1,026
1,067
1,215
,454
.,617
1,365
1,43 2
1 ,660
1,695
.,709
1,912
2,095
2,329
2,46 0
2,56 6
2,950
3,366
3,591
3,666
4,196
6,042
8,446
9,043
9,831
9,698
12,291
15,754
19,086
19,031
17,463
16,582
18,123
III Q
IQ
IV Q
TOTAL FOR PI RIOD
1,233
1,028
1,154
1,056
1,235
1,586
1,605
1,354
1,528
1,661
1,669
1,898
1,964
2,237
2,291
2,502
2,597
3,211
3,341
3,553
4,487
4,176
6,420
8,426
9,118
9,846
11,044
13,288
15,843
18,828
19,551
17,320
17,257
18,210
1,309
1,016
1,073
1,130
1,226
1,836
1,493
1,339
1,493
1,631
1,700
1,811
2,059
2,394
2,362
2,46 7
2,677
2,977
3,280
3,56 9
3,881
4,558
6,949
8,865
9 , 2 80
10,457
11,001
13,299
16,753
19,251
18,885
16,347
17,298
19,142
EXPORTS OF DOMESTIC AGRICULTURAL P RODUCTS
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
3,700
3,010
3,191
3,199
3,673
4,452
4,839
4,080
4,357
5,032
5,062
5,357
5,715
6,450
6,920
7,431
7,764
9,019
9,889
10,646
11,726
12,446
18,327
25,202
27,051
29,671
31,122
3 7 , 2 48
47,303
56,181
57,871
52,843
50,325
55,487
3,683
3,046
3,059
3,388
3,701
4,705
4,573
4,089
4,197
4,989
5,247
5,070
5,948
6,727
7,089
7,574
7,763
8 , 5 80
10,020
10,756
9 , 7 46
13,347
20,413
26,530
27,952
29,845
29,851
39,665
50,391
57,183
57,201
48,870
51,394
55,948
1,694
1,755
1,589
1,526
1,728
2,011
1,761
2,816
5,260
5.591
5,657
5,841
4 040
3 431
2,848
3 054
3,198
4,170
4 506
3 ,855
3 955
4,832
5 024
5,034
5 ,584
6 348
6,229
6,874
6 , 3 80
6,227
5,936
7,247
7,698
9,407
17,681
21,999
21,886
22,998
7,684
10,079
10,787
10,397
8,101
9,263
9,355
29,384
34,755
41,256
43,338
36,623
36,108
37,814
1962 . . .
228
547
569
579
186
541
6 80
766
1,111
1,774
2,369
1,917
1 76 2
1,818
2,531
3,442
4,295
3,258
3,128
3,457
13,968
13,203
12,26 2
12,854
1 4 , 2 91
17,333
19,495
16,367
16,407
19,626
20,190
20,973
22,427
25,690
26,691
29,379
3,0,934
34,063
37,332
42,659
43,549
49,199
70,823
98,092
107,652
115,223
121,232
1 4 3 , 6 81
181,860
220,630
233,677
212,193
200,486
217,865
TOTAL FOR PI.RIOD
1951 . . .
1952 . . .
1953 . . .
1 964 , . .
196 5 . , .
1966.. .
196 7 . . .
1968. ..
1969...
1970. ..
1971.
.
1972..
1973.,
1974..
1975. .
1976..
197 7
1978..
1979,.
1980..
1981..
1982..
1983..
1984..
1985..
Annual
349
554
542
573
246
56 9
633
703
1,142
1,82 9
1,830
1,630
662
594
526
518
490
53 3
658
606
1,268
1,869
1,703
1,668
550
550
526
528
609
565
636
628
1,251
1,978
1,723
) ,892
538
552
542
491
576
566
623
722
1,412
1,882
1,575
1,950
550
572
539
475
526
612
624
771
1,442
1,806
1,480
1,948
595
531
512
503
541
614
632
754
1,370
1,842
1.735
2,039
500
624
513
544
494
610
636
796
1,731
1,698
1,872
2,058
515
601
523
509
518
639
866
83 7
1,726
1,654
1,932
2,160
56 2
595
507
441
612
694
447
882
1 ,706
1,691
2,060
2,231
541
580
560
516
565
628
546
927
1 ,769
1 ,978
1 ,821
1,750
591
5 80
522
56 9
551
689
768
1,007
1,785
1,922
1,776
1,860
2,058
2,444
3,484
3,977
3,590
2,985
3,198
2,363
2,609
3,325
4,201
3,225
2,811
3,336
2,428
2,540
3,329
3,604
3 ,400
2,891
3,030
2,861
2,597
3,326
3,708
3,527
2,715
3,245
2,904
2,828
3,085
3,256
3,332
2,977
2,715
2,392
2,954
3,286
3,089
2,789
3,072
3,236
2,774
3,019
3,557
3,202
2,763
2,973
3,022
2,512
3,032
3,596
3,563
2,648
3,322
3,153
2,596
3,309
3,485
3,735
2 , 6 81
2,979
2,799
2,533
3,459
3,46 4
3,442
2 , 7 83
3,109
3,242
2,555
3,311
3,83 8
3,220
2,637
3,175
3.314
1,239
1,695
1,637
1,670
922
1 . 6 43
1,971
2,075
3,521
5,472
5,902
5,215
5 87 8
6,239
7 , 5 84
10,251
12,473
10,073
8,924
9,991
1,638
1,674
1,607
1,494
1,711
1 , 7 43
1,883
2,121
4,105
5,666
4,778
5 , 7 90
6 57 9
8,193
7,965
9,740
10,568
10.259
8,583
8,990
1,610
1 , 7 56
1,548
1,556
1,553
1,863
2,134
2 , 3 87
4,827
5,194
5,539
6,257
5 841
7,678
9,005
10,43 9
9,854
8,200
9,367
9,411
TOTAL FOR PI RIOD
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1951 . . .
1952...
1953 . . .
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959 . . .
1962 . . .
1963 , . .
1964.
..
1965...
1966...
1967...
196 8 . . .
1969...
1970...
1971 . . .
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978.,.
1979,. .
1980...
1981 . . .
1982...
1983 . . .
1984...
1985...
230
43 5
521
523
40 8
628
732
775
880
1,155
1 ,672
1 , 7 80
1,831
2,084
2 ,6 82
3,297
4,058
4,346
3,644
4,009
322
439
502
530
43 7
678
6 91
7 80
911
1 ,197
1,632
1,817
1.89X
2,187
2,832
3,454
4,155
4,054
3,359
3,848
480
470
490
43 8
622
647
724
773
925
1,270
1 ,626
1,806
1,859
2,450
2,917
3,423
4,352
3,997
3,499
3 ,764
451*
43 21
494
539
647
651
720
757
926
1,288
1,760
1,818
1,80 8
2,415
2,706
3,571
4,311
3,932
3,513
3,811
43 2
448
508
519
622
6 80
680
767
975
1,338
1,720
1,836
1,835
2,472
2,859
3,620
4,160
3,957
3,433
3,976
43 5
468
498
515
594
718
700
783
997
1,339
1,772
1,871
1,868
2,427
3,034
3,943
4,388
4,211
3,265
3,746
426
484
485
526
608
755
6 86
776
1,028
1,398
1,770
1,952
1,862
2,451
3,022
3,985
4,567
4,305
3,655
3 , 7 90
43 3
457
476
557
652
706
663
814
,041
,509
.752
,675
,732
,528
3,241
4,230
6,207
3,856
3 ,290
3,878
414
473
49 7
573
616
718
871
818
1,090
1,481
1,750
1,883
2,133
2,815
3,153
4,027
4,559
4,197
3,718
3 , 6 40
These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.
100
47 2
491
458
512
678
785
5 82
7 81
1,115
1,552
1,814
1,821
1,556
2,625
3,251
4,117
4,338
3,82 9
3,689
4,007
450
475
510
5 86
657
701
672
862
1,107
1,624
1 ,770
1,814
1 , 7 91
2,718
3,172
3,968
4,366
3 , 6 86
3 , 6 86
3,905
463
486
520
518
630
720
7 83
860
1 ,111
1.523
1,843
1,983
2,056
2,824
3,240
3,819
4,005
3,719
3 , 6 83
4,128
1,032
1.344
1.513
1,491
1 ,46 7
1,953
2,147
2,328
2,716
3,622
4,930
5,403
5,582
6,721
8,431
10,174
12,565
12,397
10,502
11,621
1,323
1,349
1,500
1,573
1,863
2,049
2,100
2,307
2,898
3,965
5,252
5,525
5,511
7,314
8,599
11,134
12,859
12,100
10 , 2 1 1
11.533
1,273
1,414
1,458
1 , 6 56
1,876
2,179
2,220
2,408
3.159
4,388
5,272
5,510
5,727
7,794
9,416
12,242
15,333
12,358
10,663
11,308
1,385
1,452
1,488
1,616
1,965
2,206
2,037
2,503
3.333
4,699
5,427
5,618
5,403
8,167
9,663
11,904
12,709
11,234
11,058
12,040
5.013
,559
,959
,336
,171
J.387
1,504
K546
12,106
16,674
20,881
22,056
22,223
29,996
36,109
45,454
53,466
48,089
42,434
46,502
(DECEMBER 1985)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Apr.
Mar.
May
June
Aug.
July
Sept. • Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
Ml Q
HQ
612,
GENERAL IMPORTS
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
IV Q
Annual
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
1951.. .
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957., .
1958,..
1959...
I960.. .
93 9
856
90 4
855
886
1,045
,057
1,053
,166
,247
927
881
902
852
897
1*063
1,056
1 ,022
1,202
1,353
997
904
923
762
907
,034
,118
,051
,220
,291
1,00 5
870
998
945
902
1,019
1,100
1,051
1,218
1,353
986
839
931
848
939
1,040
L.060
L ,066
,330
,278
967
882
913
935
928
1,069
,058
,037
,301
,276
940
846
899
847
953
1,063
1,111
1,023
1 ,227
1,268
885
897
910
851
952
1 ,065
1,099
1,046
1,289
1,245
838
915
968
818
992
1,132
1 ,074
1 ,083
1,411
1,210
80 0
899
818
80 5
1,045
1,055
1,086
1,091
1 ,184
1,197
845
90 4
873
821
1,045
969
1,06 5
1,156
1,292
1,162
812
978
83 7
874
971
1,050
1,080
1,139
1,353
1,142
2,863
2,641
2,729
2,46 9
2 , 6 90
3,142
3,231
3 ,126
3,588
3,891
2,958
2,591
2,842
2,728
2,769
3,128
3,218
3,154
3,849
3,907
2,663
2,658
2,777
2,516
2,897
3,260
3,284
3,152
3,927
3,723
2,457
2,781
2,528
2,500
3,061
3,074
3,231
3,386
3,829
3,501
10,96 7
10,717
10,873
10,215
11 , 3 8 4
12,615
12,982
12,792
15,207
15,018
1962.,.
1963,..
1964,..
1965...
1966...
,320
,089
L ,421
,199
1,966
1,325
1,510
1,46 2
1,606
2,013
,339
,485
,518
,861
2,050
1,368
1,412
1,525
1,811
2,090
,396
1,409
,53 5
,797
.,060
,355
,43 2
,525
,848
,102
1 ,341
1,447
1,576
1,7 42
2,216
1,347
1 ,507
1,585
1 ,825
2,137
1,479
1,455
1,559
1,858
2,288
1,316
1 ,459
1,550
1,885
2,303
1,419
1,459
1,688
1,941
2,195
1,3 80
1,488
1,655
1,911
2,196
2,588
2,982
3,219
3,629
4,515
5,414
7,997
7,720
9,742
12,792
14,320
15,657
24,866
21,029
20,018
19,528
26,948
2,604
3,183
3,262
3,774
4,417
5,360
8,237
, 8,218
/ 9,940
-12,127
14,773
16,061
19,831
22,249
17,714
19,914
28,074
-.755
3,256
3,337
3,908
4,486
5,703
8,460
7,470
9,489
11,47 8
14,295
16,805
20,658
21,232
20,477
21,446
26 , 0 1 2
,7 92
,152
,265
,037
,46 8
,775
8,870
7,311
10,578
13,676
14,226
17,201
20,427
22,005
21 ,187
20,916
25,276
2,725
3,074
3,254
3,83 2
4,565
5,829
9,214
8,110
11,028
12,654
14,896
17,116
19,189
20,114
19,849
21,828
31,334
2 ,872
3,163
3 , 3 46
3,913
4,726
6,010
9,504
8,166
10,738
12,530
14,412
18,659
19,719
23,242
22,930
2,951
3,078
3,423
4,179
4,612
5,644
9,002
8,388
10,972
13,158
15,246
18,632
19,934
21 , 2 7 4
20,581
22,451
28,409
2,736
3,192
3,498
3,46 9
4,738
5,996
9,026
8,533
10,810
12,996
15,091
19,271
20,327
23,077
21,006
24,333
26,783
2,883
3,180
3,428
3,456
5,148
6,684
9,239
8,46 4
10,951
12,778
15,238
19,013
19,856
22,508
18,892
23,115
27,331
2,90 8
3,078
3,402
4,169
5,002
6,291
9,647
8,670
11,566
13,661
15,300
20,156
21,427
19,746
19,154
22,976
25,933
4,119
4,253
4,585
5,456
6,252
6 500
8,151
9,591
9,864
11 ,719
13,371
16,838
25,567
22,999
30,007
37,281
43,294
50,067
60,916
65,486
59,378
62,276
79,362
4,167
4,409
4,720
5,425
6,641
f. e aa
8,548
9,315
10,023
11,924
13,903
17,483
27,720
24,664
32,738
38,342
44,554
54,407
58,842
64,630
63,360
66,993
86,609
4,115
4,406
4,893
5,737
6,694
7 1 ii
8,527
9,450
10,328
11,094
14,888
18,971
27,912
25,667
33,327
39,435
45,629
58,440
61,610
65,331
59,052
70,424
80,047
1 6 , 3 90
17,138
18,684
21,364
25,542
2,592
2,672
3,279
3,564
4,473
5,483
7,534
8,133
9,302
12,990
14,617
14,919
21,834
21,916
1 9 , 570
18,804
26,420
3,984
4,084
4,401
4,666
6,029
6 6 99
7 ,867
7,656
9 ,720
10,792
13,424
16 , 1 4 1
2 2,196
25 , 9 9 8
28,385
36,476
42,598
47,389
67,881
65,561
62,161
58,459
79,572
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977,.,
1978...
1979.,.
1980.. .
1981.,.
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985...
2,687
2,002
3,222
3,599
4,43 6
5,244
6,665
10,145
9,341
10,694
13,661
16,813
21,181
22,616
22,573
20,127
26,204
614.
IMPORTS OF PETROLEUM AMD PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
33,226
36,043
39,952
45,563
55,583
69,476
103 , 3 2 1
99,305
124,614
151,534
176,052
210,285
245,262
260,982
243 ,952
258,048
325,726
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
1 952
1 954
1959...
1960
162
1965...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976.. .
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
185
192
208
226
219
332
462
1,167
3,080
2,475
3,217
3,000
3,580
5,614
7,359
6 ,810
4,481
165
172
187
206
252
220
334
456
1,512
1,781
2,338
3,370
3,626
3,634
7,741
8,018
4,396
3,183
188
171
183
182
235
237
250
324
487
2,299
2,387
2,494
3,611
3,162
3,83 2
5,185
6,919
3,894
3,749
172
179
182
237
2 49
342
492
1,560
1,211
2,361
4,191
3,094
3,667
6,991
5,992
4 , 2 90
3,603
166
206
180
215
203
270
331
550
2,117
1,7 46
2,118
3,192
3,038
4,000
7,191
6,329
4,180
5,43 2
209
167
194
203
229
276
346
588
2,063
1,354
2,563
3,734
3,229
4,199
6 ,611
6,521
4,855
4,215
1
150
162
228
215
200
288
350
520
2,306
1,990
2,887
3,415
3,194
4,692
5,153
5,400
5.624
4,622
4 67 4
176
170
155
182
211
234
293
352
703
2,274
2 ,008
2,860
3,266
3,257
4,949
6,018
6,335
5,731
4,597
4 021
160
213
218
221
314
387
700
2,200
2,515
2,716
3,436
3,307
5 ,662
4,982
5,709
4,903
4,929
4 261
173
173
210
223
231
286
3 90
787
2,281
2 ,320
2,834
3 , 3 86
3,347
6 , 0 50
5,876
6,123
5,433
4,818
4 007
170
172
199
207
233
335
406
942
2,308
2,140
2,968
3,410
3,489
5,351
6,051
6,483
4,757
4,459
4 63 7
192
179
198
238
256
335
416
972
2,335
,360
,051
,233
,588
,502
.254
+ .636
t,694
3,997
4 298
498
529
558
596
715
688
1 ,008
1,410
4,239
6,072
7,174
10,778
9 ,720
10,881
20,346
21,369
15,496
11,267
14 56 8
563
496
556
556
653
669
7 96
1,001
1,625
6,479
5,487
7,175
10,537
9,429
12,031
18,987
19,769
12,929
13,396
15 80 7
477
623
644
655
895
1,089
1,923
6,780
6,513
8,463
10,117
9,758
15,303
16,153
17 , 4 4 4
16,258
14,148
12 956
535
2 ,092
524
607
668
720
956
1,212
2,701
6,924
6,820
8,853
10,029
10,424
17,903
18,181
17,242
14,884
13,274
12 942
2,086
2,343
2,56 0
2,764
3,323
4,300
7,614
24,270
24,814
31 , 7 9 8
41,526
39,104
56,036
73,771
75 , 577
59,396
52,325
55 9 06
1985...
616,
IMPORTS OF AUTOMOBILES AND PARTS
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
1955 .
1 956
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965 . . .
1966..,
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971., .
1973.. .
1974...
1975...
1976.. .
1977.. .
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981 . . .
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985...
31
106
176
299
293
417
482
780
862
742
1 ,085
1,0 83
1,529
1,963
1 ,899
2 ,264
2,389
2,329
3,684
54
114
161
273
315
404
541
731
877
654
1,041
1,248
1,661
1,706
2,035
1 ,742
2,135
3,019
3,751
61
125
169
229
325
404
561
753
797
823
1,117
1,299
1,581
1,589
1,960
2,125
2,596
2,676
3 , 6 80
89
108
159
260
399
457
533
725
898
776
1,221
1,266
1 ,715
1,956
1,710
2,042
2,389
2,746
3,838
59
123
197
292
383
428
576
54
113
184
329
392
388
529
814
901
731
976
1,183
1,659
1,851
1 ,999
2,299
2,785
2,819
3,635
1
1
1
1
1
3
J
7
3
821
841
7 82
,169
,360
,684
,730
,843
,257
,6 26
,823
,6 83
64
130
201
314
391
419
525
806
928
879
1,025
1,315
1,812
1,815
2,103
2,108
2,455
2,936
3,947
74
57
76
34
+3 8
+ 98
>72
49
146
183
294
401
332
660
749
859
938
1 ,055
1,328
1,666
2,113
2,139
2,635
2,795
2,813
3,773
722
H2
161
1 , 138
1 , 428
1 , 32 2
1 , S49
2,
1 ,943
2,370
2,636
4,302
NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.
no
84
139
206
346
443
446
549
6 81
858
80 9
888
871
1,426
1,872
1,80 5
2,189
2,46 4
2 ,444
3,233
3,600
93
144
211
371
421
438
579
76 8
840
812
873
1,128
1 ,46 5
1,875
1,984
2,314
2,239
2,130
3,415
3,817
95
213
231
365
428
426
642
694
631
814
1,013
1 ,221
1,479
1,822
1 ,871
1,897
2,164
2,189
3,801
3,732
146
345
506
801
933
1,225
1,584
2 ,264
2,536
2,219
3,243
3,630
4,771
5,258
5,894
6,131
7 ,120
8,024
11,115
202
344
540
881
1,174
1 ,273
1 ,638
1 963
2,360
2,640
2,289
3,366
3,80 9
5,058
5,537
5,552
6,598
7,800
8,388
11,156
187
433
560
942
1,230
1,249
1,857
272
496
648
1,082
1,292
1,310
1,770
2,277
2 , 6 99
2,678
3,318
4,071
5,300
5,777
6,512
6,686
7,620
8,385
12,022
2,329
2,43 5
2,774
3,220
4,370
5,569
5,660
6,400
6,867
6,763
10,449
11,149
80 7
1,618
2,254
3,706
4,629
5,057
6,849
7 96 0
9,230
10,310
9,960
13,147
15,880
20,698
22,232
24,358
26 , 2 8 2
29,303
35,246
45,442
(DECEMBER 1985)
101
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
II Q
IQ
III Q
Annual
IV Q
6 7 . BANK RATES ON SHORT-TERM BUSINESS LOANS
( I EHCENT)
<3>
AVERAGE
3 .02
3 .07
3 .06
3 .27
1953
1954
3 .54
3 72
3 .73
3 gQ
3 .74
3 56
3.76
3 .55
1956
195 7
3 93
4 38
4 14
4 40
4.35
4 83
4.38
4. 85
4 50
5 36
4.99
4.96
5.02
5 .00
5 ,00
5 27
6.31
5 .96
6 .61
8.83
8.07
6.18
6.33
10 .08
11 .64
8.29
7.28
8.64
11 .44
1 5 .81
15 71
17 .23
11.26
10 .95
11 .29
1 951
'
1960
1 961
196 2
1963
196 4
196 5
1966
I 967
1 96 8
1 96 9
1 970
1971
1972
1973 . . . . .
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978 . . .
1979
1 980
1 982
1 983
1984
1985
j
5 34
4.97
4.98
5 00
4 99
4 97
5.55
6.13
6 36
7 .32
8.86
6 .59
5.52
6 .52
9.91
9 ,94
7.54
7 .50
8 90
12.27
15 6 7
19.91
17 13
10 ,20
11.06
*
5 35
4.97
3.01
h
t 01
t. 99
4 99
5.82
5 .95
6 .84
7 -86
8 49
6 .01
5.59
7 .35
11.15
8.16
7 , *V4
7 .J>0
8 ,1'6
12,34
17 7 5
19.99
17 11
10 .3,1
12.4H
4.97
4.99
4.99
5 01
4 98
5 00
6.30
5 .95
6 .89
8 .82
8 .50
6 .51
5.84
9.24
12.40
8 .22
7.80
7 .80
9 .92
12 . 3 1
11 56
21 . 1 1
13 27
11 . 0 9
13.29
971 . DIFFUSION INDEX OF NEW ORDERS, MANUFACTURINGACTUAL1 © (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)
1 951
1952
1 953
1954 . . . . .
1 955
1 956 .
1 957
1958
1 959
1 960
1 961
1 962
1 963 .
196 4
1 965
1 966
1 96 7 .
1968
1969
1970
1 971
1972 . .
1 973
1974.....
1975
1976
1 977
1 978
1979
1980
1981
1 982
1983
1 984
1985
89
60
77
50
76
82
65
42
83
74
52
81
71
80
82
88
71
78
81
66
68
82
88
84
50
80
80
83
85
74
68
32
90
78
62
76
54
84
76
67
50
84
65
62
77
74
84
84
88
72
78
80
64
70
84
90
82
54
80
83
86
81
63
70
50
74
86
68
70
72
56
82
77
62
79
60
72
76
76
83
88
84
69
79
76
60
70
86
88
74
64
78
82
86
73
60
62
52
78
34
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
8?
38
60
49
71
72
59
33
74
68
48
73
64
74
78
82
65
70
70
61
63
74
78
74
52
76
71
73
78
62
60
53
62
80
69
45
64
52
74
70
58
42
78
58
52
72
68
78
80
82
65
73
74
56
64
76
79
76
53
74
74
76
74
54
66
52
66
79
57
48
56
52
76
69
51
76
52
62
70
70
79
80
78
64
72
68
55
66
79
76
71
58
72
74
78
10
It 7
(0
12
71
74
8.21
8.48
6.32
5.82
8.30
11.28
3.65
7.52
7.84
9.80
13.18
15.17
19.56
14.69
10 .64
12.02
AVERAGE
68
76
58
66
84
72
53
68
74
52
75
72
74
82
86
82
72
80
72
55
74
84
86
59
71
78
82
86
78
60
62
56
84
79
71
56
82
77
9 7 2 . DIFFUSION INDEX OF NET P R O F I T S , MFG, AND TRADE—
ACTUAL1 © (PERCENT R SING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)
1 951
1952
1953
1954
1 955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1 96 5
1966
1 967
1 968
1 96 9
1970.
1 971
1972
1 973
1974
3.10
3 49
3.69
3 .61
3 70
4.20
4.62
4 34
5 00
5 .16
4.97
5.00
5.00
4.99
5 ,06
6.00
6.00
6 .68
56
80
63
65
76
74
82
85
86
71
79
77
61
70
84
88
75
60
79
82
85
79
64
66
52
76
85
AVERAGE
50
64
54
62
78
66
46
60
72
50
68
68
70
79
83
76
69
74
66
56
70
80
76
63
66
74
76
78
72
56
60
54
74
74
58
54
75
69
48
75
57
58
71
68
78
80
80
66
72
70
57
66
77
77
71
57
74
74
76
74
57
62
53
68
77
Year
1951
1 952
1953
1954
1 955
1956
1957
1958 . .
1 959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1 965
1966
196 7
1968
196 9
1970
1971
1972
1 973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
58
52
54
52
77
70
50
76
56
63
72
72
79
84
80
64
68
68
52
64
78
77
73
59
74
72
78
71
56
60
50
71
76
52
64
51
63
79
68
47
62
72
52
70
69
70
78
84
79
70
72
65
52
68
82
76
64
65
76
78
78
74
56
59
53
74
76
102
40
68
51
70
76
62
37
74
72
43
75
66
76
79
82
68
70
70
60
62
76
78
76
52
76
72
74
60
63
60
49
58
82
68
50
56
52
76
71
61
44
80
62
54
74
66
79
81
83
66
72
76
55
62
77
60
76
52
77
76
78
74
54
64
48
66
81
68
971,
DIFFUSION INDEX OF NEW ORDERS, MANUFACTURING—
ANTICIPATED' © (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)
1 951
1 952
1953
1954
1 955
1956
1957
1 958
1 959
1 960
1961
...
1 962
1 963
1 964
1 96 5 .
1 966
1 967
1968
196 9
1970
1971
1972
1 973
1974 .
1975
1 976
1977
197 8
197 9
1 980
1981
1 982
1983 . . .
1 984
1985
82
70
74
64
72
79
76
80
77
67
83
69
80
84
86
82
80
82
76
76
82
88
86
72
82
80
82
80
66
74
60
66
83
82
72
83
66
58
82
80
76
58
82
81
67
82
76
82
86
88
82
83
85
71
78
86
90
80
59
84
86
83
84
75
74
68
77
91
63
80
76
68
61
82
76
77
82
76
84
84
88
60
82
83
74
85
86
88
85
70
88
88
88
80
57
76
64
82
90
72
72
72
65
85
75
71
72
82
70
76
74
78
83
85
84
81
81
80
74
81
83
87
80
73
86
84
86
72
62
76
60
85
88
972.
DIFFUSION INDEX OF NET PROFITS, MFG. AND TRADE-ANTICIPATED 1 © (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER S PANS)
1 951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1 956
1 957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1 965
1 966
196 7
1 96 8
1 96 9
1971
1972
1973
1974
1 975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
54
56
56
AVERAGE
50
60
52
65
76
65
66
70
52
70
69
74
79
83
73
69
72
62
57
71
80
76
60
69
74
76
78
66
59
54
57
77
72
AVERAGE
80
70
62
30
78
73
82
76
72
80
75
82
85
86
31
82
82
74
80
36
88
83
68
85
84
35
79
65
75
63
7g
89
AVERAGE
yi
SO
58
58
64
60
72
73
60
78
68
77
80
84
72
69
52
77
75
64
79
72
80
84
86
71
63
54
78
74
74
78
72
82
83
84
70
64
62
79
66
73
71
76
81
84
82
76
72
66
76
72
80
83
84
74
80
78
''
7fi
ftfi
A«
80
84
84
79
66
64
84
84
80
59
74
66
80
88
78
83
80
77
67
82
82
83
70
61
72
60
81
84
76
81
83
78
65
30
81
82
78
65
71
63
74
86
75
68
7
71
76
82
80
68
76
78
79
78
66
70
61
64
84
74
82
85
74
58
80
80
82
82
73
69
66
73
86
NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.
'These are copyrighted series used by permission; they may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
Annual
IV Q
111 Q
II Q
IQ
960.
DIFFUSION INDEX OF NET PROFITS , MANUFACTU R I N G ABOUT 600 COMPANIES' © (PERCENT RISING OVER 4 - Q SPANS)
58
74
72
66
7fi
(DECEMBER 1985)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
IQ
III Q
II Q
IV Q
Annual
973. DIFFUSION INDEX OF NET SALES, MFG. AND TRADE-ACTUAL © (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)
90
54
72
50
76
80
64
40
82
72
49
80
71
80
82
88
71
79
80
70
70
82
86
82
57
82
80
84
87
73
70
63
66
85
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
J959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
'
79
60
74
50
84
78
67
46
87
63
58
78
74
83
84
88
70
82
84
66
72
82
89
84
58
81
81
86
84
62
74
58
74
84
67
67
71
53
82
78
...
58
82
58
70
78
76
84
87
85
72
82
78
64
74
85
86
80
66
80
84
88
82
68
71
57
74
82
Year
1951
1952
1933
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
196 2
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
196 9
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
76
61
64
84
74
52
68
78
52
72
76
75
84
86
82
74
84
76
62
76
86
85
70
70
80
85
88
82
66
68
60
80
80
70
54
82
78
(PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)
64
55
56
48
54
58
54
40
56
56
47
56
54
55
60
65
58
57
59
54
48
56
63
58
44
57
60
62
62
58
51
48
48
65
62
56
58
46
56
57
53
44
60
54
50
55
56
58
61
66
58
60
60
54
52
58
62
59
44
58
59
64
60
54
53
46
54
63
58
58
58
49
58
58
...
48
59
52
54
56
55
59
64
63
58
58
58
51
53
62
60
56
48
58
61
64
60
53
52
46
58
62
IV Q
AVERAGE
68
53
82
61
62
78
74
83
85
86
72
82
80
66
73
84
86
79
63
81
82
86
84
67
71
60
74
83
86
68
75
65
72
82
77
84
80
68
86
72
82
85
88
80
82
86
74
78
83
88
86
75
82
82
86
85
72
78
65
68
88
85
70
...
57
82
81
79
58
87
84
66
84
82
86
87
90
82
86
88
73
80
88
90
78
62
84
86
87
88
80
76
70
78
90
82
68
...
62
84
79
72
61
86
81
82
86
78
86
88
90
82
86
86
78
86
90
90
86
73
90
90
92
84
63
80
72
84
90
71
73
74
63
86
78
74
72
86
72
82
78
80
86
89
86
82
84
83
76
84
88
88
82
74
87
86
90
78
67
80
65
86
88
60
51
52
60
57
49
49
58
50
53
55
56
60
64
62
58
60
58
50
55
60
60
49
52
58
62
63
58
51
52
46
61
62
56
49
57
58
45
58
53
51
56
55
58
62
64
58
59
59
52
52
59
61
56
47
58
60
63
60
54
52
46
55
63
975.
84
54
53
51
54
68
63
43
62
66
50
64
60
64
68
74
68
68
71
66
62
64
73
78
58
62
74
76
80
67
62
58
54
72
80
48
60
48
62
68
59
46
68
60
50
62
62
66
71
74
66
68
70
61
62
66
76
79
52
65
72
76
76
61
64
52
59
70
72
50
58
47
62
68
...
48
64
56
56
62
62
67
72
73
65
70
70
62
62
72
75
78
56
68
74
76
73
64
62
52
62
70
58
74
52
50
65
65
53
50
62
54
56
61
63
65
73
74
64
70
68
58
60
71
76
69
57
69
75
78
75
60
63
52
68
70
*56
49
61
67
47
64
59
53
62
62
66
71
74
66
69
70
62
62
68
75
76
56
66
74
76
76
63
63
54
61
70
62
54
57
53
54
57
56
54
56
52
56
54
55
58
62
60
60
60
58
55
58
60
61
53
56
59
59
60
54
56
50
50
62
86
79
74
84
78
85
87
88
82
84
86
75
82
87
89
83
71
86
86
89
84
70
78
68
79
89
62
56
...
46
56
56
56
50
56
56
52
56
55
56
58
63
60
60
60
56
58
60
63
56
48
60
60
60
60
56
54
51
56
64
.
62
54
...
50
56
56
53
50
56
56
54
57
54
57
59
63
60
58
60
56
58
61
62
60
54
62
61
62
58
48
56
51
59
64
57
56
54
48
58
56
54
51
57
52
54
54
55
58
59
62
60
60
59
54
56
60
60
58
54
60
59
62
56
50
55
48
60
62
61
55
49
56
56
55
56
55
53
56
54
56
58
62
60
60
60
56
57
60
61
59
52
60
60
61
58
52
55
50
56
63
DIF. INDEX OF LEVEL OF INVENTORIES, MFG. AND TRADE-AVERAGE
1951
1952
1953
1 954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1 961
1962
1963
196 4
1965
1966
196 7
1 96 8
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1 976
1 977
1978
1979
1980
1 981
1982
1983
1984
1985
66
54
52
50
50
60
60
57
60
52
60
56
60
64
66
65
63
66
62
60
61
69
70
64
60
65
67
70
62
63
54
52
66
NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. These are copyrighted series
used by permission; they may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
62
81
80
76
AVERAGE
1951
1952
1953
1954
1 955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
196 3
1964
196 5
1966
1967
1968
196 9
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
AVERAGE
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955.
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966.....
196 7
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
81
70
DIFFUSION INDEX OF NO. OF EMPLOYEES, HFG. AND TRADE--
AVERAGE
58
Annual
AVERAGE
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
196 4
1965.....
1966
1967
1 968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
974.
ACTUAL ©
III Q
II Q
IQ
65
47
...
46
58
61
59
48
62
60
53
63
60
63
64
68
66
66
68
61
62
66
72
67
54
64
68
70
74
70
61
56
58
70
69
47
...
48
57
61
54
48
63
58
57
62
58
63
64
69
63
67
66
64
65
66
72
72
50
70
72
73
71
53
66
56
62
70
56
45
54
47
62
58
56
52
62
54
56
58
60
63
66
69
62
66
66
58
65
66
70
72
54
68
70
74
68
56
64
50
64
66
64
48
48
57
60
57
61
58
54
61
58
62
64
68
64
66
66
61
63
65
71
70
56
66
69
71
71
60
64
54
59
68
(DECEMBER 1985)
103
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
III Q
II Q
IQ
IV Q
1 951
1952
1953
1954 . . . .
1955
1956
1 957
1 958 . .
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
92
50
53
44
50
70
70
52
58
58
52
54
50
56
58
70
1968.. ,, .
I tjg 9
j 570
1971
Ig7g
1973!!'...
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1 982
1 983
1 984
1985
74
82
80
74
70
82
92
81
80
86
87
92
90
88
72
61
74
977.
DIFFUE ION
ACTUAL
®
1951
1 952
1953
1 954 .
1955
1956
1 957
1 958
1959
196 0 . . . .
1 961
1962
1 96 3
196 4
1965
1 966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1 971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 . . . . .
1984
1985
86
46
58
44
56
• 68
64
52
60
55
50
53
54
54
61
72
70
76
80
80
76
72
84
96
78
82
86
88
93
38
S)6
(8
60
70
85
42
58
43
60
68
71
54
64
56
51
52
56
56
60
76
74
82
85
85
86
81
89
96
79
80
86
92
95
90
88
67
62
69
53
60
54
54
54
55
56
64
78
72
78
82
78
68
72
86
94
78
80
87
90
92
90
84
63
65
70
63
78
51
48
68
74
60
56
58
52
52
53
55
56
65
76
73
80
82
75
70
74
90
89
78
82
87
91
94
90
82
60
68
'56
46
60
71
68
78
58
60
48
69
79
59
65
54
54
50
60
58
68
82
80
82
86
86
73
82
92
94
81
80
88
93
95
92
84
68
68
65
94
44
53
44
49
61i
64
54
62
54
52
55
52
56
62
78
74
88
91
86
86
73
90
92
80
86
90
91
94
92
94
78
68
72
82
43
52
42
55
66
64
52
65
58
50
52
54
56
61
78
80
88
90
86
84
78
87
97
84
86
86
94
95
91
90
75
72
68
76
52
56
44
66
72
53
59
55
52
54
54
56
62
74
71
77
82
78
72
72
86
93
79
81
86
89
93
90
85
66
64
70
81
50
50
70
78
66
62
64
52
54
54
58
60
70
78
82
85
85
84
74
80
96
91
81
88
90
94
96
90
82
61
70
65
54
47
63
74
57
64
55
52
53
56
58
65
78
78
82
85
86
80
81
92
94
80
83
88
92
96
91
86
67
66
68
AVERAGE
64
79
50
*53
46
58
68
58
*58
62
56
57
54
58
60
67
84
84
83
90
85
73
79
93
96
86
92
92
94
94
94
86
74
J9
'0
II Q
IQ
104
Annual
AVERAGE
5
54
61
58
70
80
87
92
89
86
74
81
93
92
88
86
92
93
96
90
86
68
72
70
1 951
1952
1953
1 954
1 955
1 956
1957
1 958
1959
1960
1961
1 962
1 963
1964
1 965
1966
1 96 7
1968
1 969
1 970
1971
1 972
1 973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1 982
1 983
1984 .
1985
90
62
56
1951
1 952
1953
I 954
1 955
1956
1 957
1958
1959
I960
92
68
56
53
51
71
72
88
58
82
50
50
54
7fi
46
55
66
64
52
60
58
56
56
56
58
61
72
68
75
78
78
75
72
83
92
68
80
86
87
88
83
89
68
70
76
90
56
84
50
*62
65
55
59
52
61
62
50
54
70
74
62
66
68
55
58
55
60
62
76
78
79
11
80
70
80
88
87
80
80
84
88
90
90
82
68
72
73
82
80
80
82
78
86
94
74
82
86
90
90
92
89
78
64
76
50
66
69
58
62
56
57
53
57
58
65
74
74
75
79
76
68
73
86
86
75
78
82
86
87
88
80
65
74
• 70
67
55
60
62
55
56
54
58
60
68
72
76
79
76
76
72
80
89
76
78
81
84
88
90
90
76
66
70
50
58
48
60
66
62
54
64
56
54
52
56
57
62
68
70
76
80
75
75
70
82
90
74
80
82
87
86
86
84
66
69
72
56
62
56
53
54
56
58
65
80
81
89
90
86
79
78
91
94
84
88
90
93
95
92
89
74
70
70
82
55
55
67
66
60
60
55
55
55
58
60
68
71
75
78
77
76
70
80
89
76
78
82
85
87
86
88
72
68
74
AVERAGE
1 962
195 3
1964
1 96 5
j 9g£
1 96 7 .
1 96 8
1 96 9
1970
I 97 j
1972.,!!.
1973
1974
197 5
1 976
1 977
197 8
1979
1 98O
1 981
1982
1 983
1984
1985
45
56
68
66
54
64
60
56
59
55
59
64
65
62
56
58
54
60
62
69
78
80
82
74
78
80
80
80
80
80
88
92
70
82
86
87
92
87
89
72
68
75
74
84
91
76
84
84
90
90
88
84
68
72
72
76
84
91
82
84
88
90
89
88
75
74
AVERAGE
44
53
66
60
52
62
55
48
48
67
66
55
62
60
55
64
45
52
42
55
66
64
52
66
55
52
54
52
58
58
63
76
81
84
80
80
57
54
60
59
70
76
84
84
80
80
55
54
57
55
57
57
56
54
58
76
72
86
84
81
80
75
78
87
86
80
80
71
76
84
84
74
85
89
75
82
84
88
92
93
90
81
67
74
74
88
92
72
84
89
92
92
84
92
76
70
74
74
63
93
79
86
88
92
90
90
87
72
71
68
72
83
90
78
83
87
90
91
89
90
78
69
72
1 961
1 963
'2
1973
1 974
1V/3
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
73
88
44
90
63
55
50
48
66
69
1 9
49
56
69
70
94
52
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
19 59
196 5
1966
1967
1 968
1 969
1970
1971
82
56
60
50
56
48
64
68
70
59
69
56
56
54
54
58
60
9 7 8 . DIFFUSIO * INDEX 3F SELLING PRICES , RETAIL TRADE-ANTICIPATED <u) (PER :ENT RISING OVER 4-QUART ER SPANS)
58
67
76
87
81
86
90
90
90
90
82
69
70
NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. These are copyrighted series
used by permission; they may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
IV Q
1II Q
AVERAGE
68
9 7 8 . DIFFUSION INDttX OF SELLING PRICES, RETAIL TRADE-ACTUAL @ (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1 959
I96 0
1 961
1 962
1963
1 964
1 96 5
1966
1967
196 8
1969
1970
1971
1972
1 973 . . .
1974
1 975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
Year
AVERAGE
73
52
60
47
64
72
INDEX OF SELLING ?RIC ES, WHOLESALE TRADE—
(PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)
94
48
48
46
53
71
74
54
62
57
51
55
52
60
63
78
74
81
85
87
85
80
90
96
80
84
87
89
96
92
90
72
63
73
Annual
976 . DIFFUSION INDEX OF SELLING PRICES, MANUFACTURING—
976 , DIFFUSION INDEX OF SELLING PRIC E S , MANUFACTURING—
ACTUAL © (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS)
84
51
46
51
66
65
62
80
(DECEMBER 1985}
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
(Nov.)
P
III III
Components of BCD series 26 l
Year
and
quarter
Implicit price
deflator, gross
nonfarm business
product
(Index: 1977=100)
Unit labor cost,
all persons, nonfarm
business sector
mm
(Jan.) (July) (July)
P T
P
in MM m
IB;
(Nov.)
T
Ratio scale
wt
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
Components of BCD series 26— ;•
(Index: 1977=100)
1983
I Q....
II Q...
Ill Q..
IV Q...
(Mar.)
T
151.9
152.7
153.8
155.2
157.6
155,9
155.9
157.1
156.3
157.3
159.0
160.1
158.3
157.6
159.5
160,0
162.3
163.4
rl64.2
163.3
164,1
rl64,8
Implicit price deflator, gross nonfarm
business product, Q
(index: 1977 = 100)
1984
I Q....
II Q...
Ill Q..
IV Q...
E33
Unit labor cost, all persons, nonfarm^,
business sector, Q
i
\f\
(index: 1977 = 100) ! * '
1985
I Q....
II Q...
Ill Q..
IV Q...
Inventory-sales ratios in 1972 dollars (ratio)—
Inventory-sales ratios in 1972 dollars 2
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
-* 80
Arithmetic
scale
Year
and
Manufacturing
month
(Ratio)
Merchant
wholesalers
(Ratio)
-I
Retail trade
2.2
(Ratio)
2.1
1984
Jan....
Feb....
Mar
Apr....
May....
June...
1.71
1.72
1.72
1.74
1.74
1.75
1.30
1.34
1.33
1.34
1.30
1.29
1.29
1.33
1.36
1.34
1.32
. 1.30
July...
Aug
Sept,,.
Oct....
1.77
1.76
1.80
1.80
1.78
1.74
1.32
1.34
1.37
1.37
1.37
1.36
1.33
1.34
1.33
1.36
1.35
1.34
Nov....
Dec...
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.5
Merchant wholesalers
1.4
1985
Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.
1.78
1,78
1.77
1.78
1.76
1.78
1.36
1.38
1.38
1.35
1.34
1.43
1.37
1.37
•1.38
1.36
1.35
1.36
July.
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec..
1.78
1.75
pi.77
1.40
1.38
pi.39
(NA)
1.36
1.32
pi.29
(NA)
1.3
1.2
Retail trade
1.5
D
1.4
(NA)
1.3
11111111 i i * 1311111111 ii 11111111 \\\ \ I \
1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
NOTE: The "r" indicates revised; "p'\ preliminary; and "NA11, not available.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
105
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes
Net contribution to index
Basic data
Series title
(and unit of measure)
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours). .
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs1 (thous.). . .
8. Mfrs.1 new orders in 1972 dollars, consumer
goods and materials industries (bil. dol.). .
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies
receiving slower deliveries (percent) . . . .
12. Net business formation
(index: 1967=100)
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)
29. New private housing units authorized by
local building permits (index: 1967=100). . .
36. Change in inventories on hand and on order in
1972 dol., smoothed2 (ann. rate, bil. dol.) .
99. Change in sensitive materials prices,
smoothed2 (percent)
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index: 1941-43=10)
106. Money supply M2 in 197? dollars
(bil. dol.)
111. Change in business and consumer credit
outstanding (ann. rate, percent)
910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators3
(index: 1967-100)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
(thous.)
51. Personal income less transfer payments in
1982 dollars (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
47. Industrial production
(index: 1977-100)
57. Manufacturing and trade uales in 1972
dollars (mil. dol.)
920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident
indicators3 (index: 1967=100)
LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment1
(weeks)
77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories
to sales in 1972 dollars (ratio)
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing-actual data as a percent of trend (percent) .
109. Average prime rate charged by banks
(percent)
101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
in 1972 dollars ( m i l . dol.)
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit
outstanding to personal income (percent). . .
930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators 3
(index: 1967-100) . . . . 1
Aug.
1985
Sept.
1985
Oct.
1985
Aug.
to
Sept.
1985
Nov.
1985
Sept.
to
Oct.
1985
40 .6
40.7
40.7
p40 .7
0 .08
0 .00
375
381
367
371
-0.04
0.10
38.14
38.50
r38.94
p39.16
0.05
0.06
42
42
46
42
0.00
0.16
117.6
r l l 7 .4
rll5.3
-0.02
-0.25
15.65
16 .40
rl5.72
pl5.O5
0 .10
-0.09
142 .3
rl44.2
134.6
132.5
0.04
- 0 .21
r - 2 .03
r-2.15
p-1 .08
NA
-0.01
0 .06
- 0 .52
r - 0 .47
r-0.22
-0 .08
0.02
0 .10
188.31
184.06
186 . 1 8
197.45
-0.14
0 .07
975.3
r979.2
977 .9
P977.9
0.13
-0.04
r8 .4
r9.0
rl5.6
p l l .1
0.03
0.34
170 .0
170 .6
r l 7 1 .3
p l 7 1 .5
0.35
0.41
97 ,977
r98,217
r98,571
p98,753
0 .20
0.30
r2,513.0
r2,516 .9
r 2 , 5 2 1 .6
p 2 , 5 2 7 .7
0 .08
0 .09
r l 2 5 .2
r l 2 5 .0
rl24.6
p l 2 5 .1
-0 .04
-0.09
rl84,052
rl83,793
pl82,136
NA
-0.03
- 0 .20
rl60.8
r l 6 0 .8
rl60.7
p l 6 1 .2
0.00
-0.06
15.6
15.5
15.3
16 .0
0.05
0 .09
1 .54
r l .54
pi.56
NA
0 .00
0.26
r83 .4
r83.4
r 8 3 .5
.0
0.00
0.04
9.50
9 .50
9.50
9 .50
0.00
0 .00
rl28,236
rl28,389
rl29,884
pl31,46 0
0 .03
0.31
rl5.52
r l 5 .80
pl5.92
NA
1 .07
0 .46
rl27 .7
rl.2 9 . 2
. rl30.7
pl30 .4
1 .17
1 .16
P83
NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. I t is
computed by dividing the standardized and weighted change for the component by the sum of the weights for the available components
and dividing that result by the index standardization f a c t o r . See the February 1983 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 108-109) or
the 1984 HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (pp. 67-68) for the weights and standardization factors. NA, not available, p, p r e l i m
nary, r, revised, e, estimated.
1
This series is inverted in computing the composite index; i . e . , a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement.
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding
differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment f a c t o r . The trend adjustment factor
for the leading index is 0.139; for the coincident index, -0.175; for the lagging index, 0.018.
2
3
106
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
II I I I II I I I M M H 11 I 11 111 (I M M I 11 11 11 I 11 M 111 11 (DeviActual
ations
data
from
for
reference
current
47. Industrial production index
cycle
peaks
MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
7/81
DATA
YEAR
SERIES
Deviations
from
specific
troughs
47. Industrial production index
47
Actual
data
for
current
cycle
J 977=100
Percent
+20
• 135
+ 15
+10
4130
• 125
25
26
27
28
8.7
9.0
9.1
9.3
123.3
123 .6
123.7
124.0
12/84
1/85
2/85
3/85
29
30
31
32
9.4
9.4
9.6
9.4
124.1
124.1
124.3
124.1
4/85
5/85
6/85
7/85
33
34
35
36
10.4
10.2
9.9
10.3
125.2
125.0
124.6
125.1
8/85
9/85
10/85
11/85
30
25
MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
FROM
AND
ACTUAL
TROUGH
12/82
YEAR
DATA
20
+5
24
22 . 7
123 . 3
12/84
• 115
25
26
27
28
23.0
23.1
23 .4
23.5
123.6
123.7
124.0
124.1
1/85
2/85
3/85
4/85
M10
29
30
31
32
23.5
23.7
23.5
24.6
124.1
124.3
124.1
125.2
5/85
6/85
7/85
8/85
24.4
24.0
24.5
125.0
124.6
125.1
9/85
10/85
11/85
-5
33
• 105
-10
• 100
34
35
MONTHS
FROM
REF.
TROUGH
90
85
3/75
15
10
75
- I 70
-12
-6
0 + 6
• 115
• 110
• 105
CURRENT MONTH
ACTUAL
AND
YEAR
DATA
25
26
27
28
80.9
80 .7
80.4
80.5
12/84
1/85
2/85
3/85
29
30
31
32
80.5
80.3
80 .1
80.1
4/85
5/85
6/85
7/85
33
34
35
36
80 .7
80.3
79.8
80 .0
8/85
9/85
10/85
11/85
82. Capacity utilization rate,
manufacturing
DEVIMONTHS
FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
12/82
YEAR
DATA
• 80
-
SERIES
82
PERCENT
80
• 120
SERIES
82
PERCENT
-> - 1 5
82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing
• 125
12/82
SERIES
47
1977=100
>120
• 130
24
12.9
80.9
25
26
27
28
12.7
12.4
12.5
12.5
80.7
80.4
80.5
80.5
1/85
2/85
3/85
4/85
29
30
31
32
12.3
12.1
12.1
12.7
80.3
80.1
80.1
80.7
5/85
6/85
7/85
8/85
33
34
35
12.3
11 . 8
12.0
80.3
79.8
80 . 0
9/85
10/85
11/85
10
• 75
12/84
+12 +18 + 2 4 +30 +36
Months from reference troughs
-
5
>70
—• 0
0 + 6
+12
111 II I 1 II II I I I Ii M l II
+18 +24 +30 +36
Months from specific troughs
NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 106 of the July 1985 issue.
107
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns—Continued
M 1 I 1 1 1 11 I 1 1 U 11 I M I 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
TFITIITIIiIIIiflfF
MONTHS
FROM
REF.
TROUGH
45. Average weekly insured unemployment
rate (inverted)
CURRENT MONTH
AND
ACTUAL
DATA
YEAR
45. Average weekly insured
unemployment rate (inverted)
45
SERIES
PERCENT
3.0
3.5
4.0
2 .0
2.9
3.0
2.9
12/ 84
1/85
2/85
3/85
29
30
31
32
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
4/85
5/85
6/85
33
34
35
36
2.7
2.7
2/7
2.7
8/85
9/85
10/85
11/85
5.0
6.0
6.5
48. Employee hours in nonagricultural
establishments
Actual
L 5/75
\ /
7/85
/
Actual
data
for
current
cycle
25
26
27
28
-2.3
-2.2
-2.1
-2.2
2.8
2.9
3.0
2.9
12/84
29
30
31
32
-2 .3
-2.3
-2.3
-2 .3
2.8
2.8
2,8
2 .8
4/85
5/85
6/85
33
34
-2.4
-2.4
-2.4
-2.4
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7 '
35
36
1
Median
1i
\
y^s*^^m\
jr*A
ft
\tl
J?l
SJ
1/85
2/85
m*l
• 180
• 178
• 176
• 174
• 172
• 170
• 166
• 166
• 164
-12
-6
I I I I I I M i I 1 I 1 M l I I II I 1 I I I I I I I I I i I I
0 + 6
+12 +18 + 2 4 +30 +36
29
30
31
32
6.1
6.5
6.7
6.6
181 . 7 0
182.43
182.67
182.63
33
34
35
36
7.0
7.6
8.3
8.3
183 . 3 0
184.32
185.41
185.40
*
A
A f\
-O.f )
• 5.0
T
7/85
48. Employee hours in nonagricultural
establishments
8/85
9/85
10/85
11/85
| ux,c [
m
If
1
V
Ij1
11
If
v rN
8/85
9/85
10/85
11/85
/ /a
f
DEVIMONTHS
FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
DATA
YEAR
11/82
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
10.8
11.2
11 , 4
11.4
181 . 7 0
182.43
182.67
182.63
33
34
35
36
11 . 8
12.4
13.0
13.0
183.30
184.32
185.41
9/85
10/85
185.40
11/85
f
-
10
—i
9
—
8
_
7
fU*
IN
KJFT
Zm*J{
2/85
4
• 180
Median
ISM
AM
• 162
• 178
/ Jr
'
• 184
It
• 176
g
• 174
-
5
• 172
—-
4
f]
I1 Ji
/
• 186
13
12
Jr
fV
6/85
7/85
SERIES
48
ANN. RATI
B I L . HOURS
10 . 0
180.38
12/84
10.2
180.7 7
1/85
10 . 1
180.65
10,9
181 . 9 4
Percent
EU
4/85
5/85
"^6/75
• 170
\V*\E
3/85 UT* T
4/85 I \ U */ %/
5/85 I \ »
ii,£/
3
• 168
2
7/85 1
6/85
\\iljBf
1
Mil
8/85 f \ V M /
NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 106 of the July 1985 issue.
_
i
3/85
Months from reference troughs
108
• 3.5
-I.f
-t.C
11/70
• 2.5
-2.C
jri
48
^NN. RAT!
BIL.
HOURS
180.3 8
12/84
180.7 7
1/85
180.65
2/85
181 . 9 4
3/85
5.3
5.6
5.5
6.2
1.5
, #2.0
-2.J>
SERIES
25
26
27
28
-3.C
/
DEVIMONTHS
FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
7/81
DATA
YEAR
• 182
•
-3.S
y-^
\
• 186
• 184
-4.C)
/
SERIE 3
45
"ERCENT
5.5
reference
peaks
EB
DEVIMONTHS
FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH'
AND
ACTUAL
FROM
SPEC.
DATA
YEAR
11/82
TROUGH
4.5
Devi-.
ations
from
Ug,U
25
26
27
28
2.5
Devi- Actual
data
ations
for
from
specific current
cycle
troughs
1
t
mjiiin
-6
i
i
M t l t l l U l l l
i
i
t
1 J ( 111 1I I I I I I 1I t 1 I
0 4-6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36
Months from specific troughs
1
• 166
o
• 164
u
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns-Continued
11II III III11 11111I11IIIII III1111 111 I I I I I M 11II 111 IT
MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
7/81
DATA
YEAR
910. Composite index of 12 leading
indicators
n1111111IIn n111111jII11111M111M111n11 ITTTTITT
910. Composite index of 12 leading
indicators
SERIES 9 1 0
1967=100
• 170
• 160
25
26
27
28
14.8
16 . 4
17.3
17.4
164.1
166.3
167.6
167.8
12/84
1/85
2/85
3/85
29
30
31
32
16 . 8
17.1
17.3
17.9
166.9
167.4
167.6
168.5
4/85
5/85
6/85
7/85
33
34
35
36
19.0
19.4
19.9
20.0
170.0
170.6
171 , 3
171 . 5
9/85
10/85
11/85
35
MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
3/82
YEAR
DATA
30
0
• 140
- -5
- -10
- -15
• 130
40
8/85
• 165
• 180
• 170
33
34
35
36
21 . 8
23.5
24.4
24.6
164.1
166 .3
167.6
167.8
12/84
1/85
2/85
3/85
37
38
39
40
23.9
24.3
24.4
25.1
166.9
4/85
167.4 5/85
167 .6
6/85
168.5
7/85
41
42
43
44
26.2
26.7
27.2
27.3
170.0
8/85
170.6 9/85
171 . 3 1 0 / 8 5
171.5
11/85
• 165
20
• 160
15
• 150
10
• 145
• 140
MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
ACTUAL
REF.
AND
FROM
TROUGH
7/81
YEAR
DATA
SERIES 9 2 0
1967=100
920. Composite index of 4 coincident
indicators
Percent
25
26
27
28
7 .6
7.3
7.7
7 .9
158 8
158 4
159 0
159 3
12/84
1/85
2/85
3/85
29
30
31
32
8.7
8.4
7.9
8.0
160
160
159
159
4
0
3
4
4/85
5/85
6/85
7/85
33
34
35
36
8.9
8.9,
8.9
9.2
160
160
160
161
8
8
7
2
8/85
9/85
10/85
11/85
920. Composite index of 4 coincident
indicators
35
+20
• 175
+15
• 165
+ 10
• 155
MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT
FROM
ACTUAL
SPEC.
TROUGH
DATA
12/82
• 145
-5
• 135
-10
#125
-12-6
11I
• 180
• 175
30
• 170
2 5
MONTH
AND
YEAR
20
«165
• 160
• 155
SERIES > 9 2 0
1967=100
It I I I I I I 11 I I I I H t I t I I M 1 I I I I II I 1 1 1 N I It II H i l l
*175
25
• 120
- I -20
+5
Actual
data
for
current
cycle
Percent
SERIES 9 1 0
1967=100
• 150
- •
Deviations
from
specific
troughs
15
• 150
24
19.8
158 .8
12/84
25
26
27
28
19.5
19.9
20.1
21.0
158
159
159
160
.4
.0
.3
.4
1/85
2/85
3/85
4/85
29
30
31
32
20.7
20.1
20.2
21.3
160.0 5/85
159.3 6/85
159.4
7/85
160.8
8/85
33
34
35
21 . 3
21 .2
21 . 6
160 .8
160 .7
161 .2
9/85
10/85
11/85
0 + 6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36
Months from reference troughs
10
• 145
• 140
• 135
11 I 1 I 11 11 1 11 IJ I 11 11 I 1 1 11 U I 11 11 11 111 11 t I I M I I 1 I I I I I It
0
+ 6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42
Months from specific troughs
NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 106 of the July 1985 issue.
109
ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE
c prifH , tiHp
(See complete Sties in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Current issue
numbers)
Series ^
number Charts Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
C)
A
Agricultural products, exports
Anticipations and intentions
Business expenditures, new plant and equ pment
8usiness expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl
Consumer sentiment, index
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl
New orders, manufacturing, 01
Prices, manufacturing, Dl
Prices, retail trade, Dl
Prices, wholesale trade, Dl
Profits, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Sales, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Automobiles
Imports of automobiles and parts
Personal consumption expenditures
604
56
92
12/85
61
970
58
974
975
971
976
978
977
972
973
24
38
22
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
67
76
65
76
76
76
76
76
76
76
76
11/85
11/85
11/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
23
23
20
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
616
55
56
22
92
65
12/85
9/84
56
39
B
Balance of payments—See International transactions.
Bank loans—See Business Loans.
Bank rates—See Interest rates.
Bank reserves
Free reserves
Member bank borrowings from the Federal Jteurve
Bonds—See Interest rates.
Borrowing—See Credit
Budget—See Government.
Building-See Construction.
Building permits, new private housing
Business equipment, industrial production
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl
Business failures, eurre it liabilities .
...
Business formation, index
Business incorporations
.
Business inventories—Soe Inventories
Business loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, cu-rent dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Business saving
C
Canada—See International comparisons.
Capacity utilization
Manufacturing
Materials
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Backlog
Newly approved
Newly approved, Dl
Capital equipment, producer price index
Capital investment—See Investment, capital.
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars
Cash flow, corporate, current dollars
Civilian labor force—See also Employment.
Employment
Employment as percent of population
Labor force
Unemployed
Coincident indicators, lour
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
,
Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index
Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded
Commercial and industrial loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dolCars
Loans outstanding, net change
Compensation—See also Income.
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
,
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of
national" income
Compensation, real average hourty, nonfarm
business sector
Earnings, average hourly, private nontarm
economy
Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
Composite indexes
Coincident indicators
Four coinciders, index
Four coinciders, rate of change
Ratio to lagging indicator index
Lagging indicators
Six laggers, index
Six laggers, rate of change
Leading indicators
Capital investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing
Money and financial flows
Profitability
Twelve leaders, index
Twelve leaders, rate of change
See notes at end of index.
110
93
94
. .
,
33
33
72
72
4/85
4/85
35
35
24
12
23
23
34
21
21
65
7/85
8/85
11/85
11/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
101 15,35
72
35
112
32
295
46
73
73
71
82
5/85
5/85
5/85
11/84
32
32
32
26
82
84
64
64
8/85
8/85
14
14
22
22
22
51
29 13,25
76
24
61
24
970
38
14
33
12 12,23
13
23
20
20
67
67
67
76
72
65
97
11
965
333
24
24
37
48
66
66
75
86
2/85
2/85
2/85
5/85
914
35
34
11
29
29
60
70
70
7/84
9/84
9/84
5
26
26
89
62
89
62,89
3/85
2/85
3/85
2/85
9
9
9
9
60
5
66
9/85
9/85
12/84
7/84
10/85
"5
5
21
101 15,35
72
35
112
32
73
73
71
5/85
5/85
5/85
32
32
32
345
280
49
45
87
82
12/84
10/84
46
46
64
30,47
70,83
9/84
46
442
51
90
17
441
51
37 18,51
920
920c
951
940
9
10
39
36
11
23
'n
60
346
49
88
12/84
46
340
49
87
10/85
5
;|41
:48
349
49
50
50
87
88
88
10/85
9/85
9/85
5
53
53
53
19
63
3/85
11
920
92t'c
940
10
39
11
60
9/85
9/85
7/84
5
93C
930c
10
39
60
9/85
9/85
5
914
915
917
916
910
910c
11
11
11
11
10
39
60
60
60
60
60
7/84
7/84
7/84
7/84
9/85
9/85
5
5
5
5
5
60'
"5
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Construction
Building permits, new private housing
Contracts awarded, commercial and
industrial buildings
Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales
Gross private fixed investment
Nonresidential, constant dollars
Nonresidential, percent of GNP
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Residential, constant dollars
Residential, percent of GNP
Housing starts
Consumer finished goods, producer price index
Consumer goods and materials, new orders
Consumer goods, industrial production
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Consumer prices—See also International comparisons.
All items
Food
Consumer sentiment, index
Consumption expenditures—See Personal
consumption expenditures.
Contract awards, Defense Department
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
current dollars
Corporate bond yields
Corporate profits—See Profits.
Costs—See Labor costs and Price indexes.
Credit
Borrowing, total private
Business loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Credit outstanding, percent change
Mortgage debt, net change
Crude and intermediate materials, change in
producer prices
Crude materials, producer price index
Curnmt SSUe
'
Series < ^ e n u m b e r s >
number Charts Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
29
13,25
67
7/85
9
69
23
24
66
67
10/85
8/85
21
17
86
248
87
89
249
28
334
8
75
25
47
25
25
47
25
48
12,21
22
67
83
67
67
83
67
86
64
65
9/84
10/84
9/84
9/84
10/84
3/85
5/85
7/85
8/85
40
40
40
40
40
24
51
15
12
66
113
95
39
35
32
15,35
33
73
72
73
72
6/85
6/85
6/85
7/85
33
33
33
34
320
322
58
49
49
22
84,95
84
65
4/85
4/85
11/85
49
49
20
525
53
90
12/85
55
20
12,23
66
8/85
21
10
116
23
34
66
73
8/85
9/85
21
35
110
32
72
11/85
101
72
112
15,35
35
32
73
73
71
5/85
5/85
5/85
32
32
32
66
113
95
39
Ill
33
35
32
15,35
33
13,32
32
73
72
73
72
72
71
6/85
6/85
6/85
7/85
6/85
11/85
33
33
33
34
31
31
98
331
28
48
69
85
3/85
4/85
51
50
557
54
91
8/85
517
543
580
578
577
525
53
53
54
55
55
53
90
90
91
91
91
90
11/85
12/85
12/85
10/85
10/85
12/85
55
55
56
56
56
55
559
548
588
561
570
564
, 565
54
53
54
54
55
55
55
91
90
91
91
91
91
91
7/85
7/85
7/85
7/85
7/85
9/84
9/84
17
15
17
15
5
43
43
39
32
33
12,21
72
64
7/85
2/85
34
17
970
965
951
974
963
966
38
37
36
38
36
37
11/85
2/85
12/84
12/85
8/85
8/85
23
22
5
37
5
12
962
975
952
950
964
36
38
36
36
37
i/85
12/85
12/84
12/84
7/85
"8
37
5
5
15
971
960
972
967
38
37
38
37
12/85
12/85
12/85
1/85
37
37
37
25
973
976
978
977
968
961
38
38
38
38
37
36
76
75
74
76
74
75
78
74
76
74
74
75
77
76
75
76
75
79
76
76
76
76
75
74
77
12/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
7/85
8/85
37
37
37
37
25
5
D
Debt-See Credit.
Defense and space equipment, industrial production
Defense Department
Gross obligations incurred
Gross unpaid obligations
Net outlays
Personnel, civilian
Personnel, military
Prime contract awards
Defense products
Inventories, manufacturers'
New orders, manufacturers'
Shipments, manufacturers'
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products industries, employment
Defense purchases, goods and services
Defense purchases, percent of GNP
Deficit—See Government.
Deflators—See Price indexes.
Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans
Deliveries, vendor performance
Diffusion indexes
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Coincident indicators
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls
Industrial production
Industrial production, components
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Inventories, manufacturing and trade
Lagging indicators
Leading indicators
New orders, durable goods industries
New orders, durable goods industries, components
New orders, manufacturing
Profits, manufacturing
Profits, manufacturing and trade
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Raw industrials, spot market prices, components
Sales, manufacturing and trade
Selling prices, manufacturing
Selling prices, retail trade
Selling prices, wholesale trade
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Workweek, manufacturing
Workweek, manufacturing, components
Disposable personal income—See income.
ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
s
.
m
'
oerieS lllie
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Current issue
/naoo number^
Series vpaee n u m D e r s J
number Charts Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
Senes
description
(*)
E
Earnings—See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Civilian labor force
Defense Department personnel, civilian
Defense Department personnel, military
Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
Rate of change
Total
Employees in goods-producing industries
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, Dl
Employment, civilian
Employment, defense products industries
Employment, ratio to population
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Dl
Overtime hours, manufacturing
Participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age
Participation rate, females 20 years and over
Participation rate, males 20 years and over
Part-time workers for economic reasons
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age
Unemployed, females 20 years and over
Unemployed, full-time workers
Unemployed, males 20 years and over
Unemployment, average duration
Unemployment, civilian
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured
Unemployment rate, total
Workweek, manufacturing
Workweek, manufacturing, components
Workweek, manufacturing, Dl
Equipment—See Investment, capital.
Exports—See International transactions.
F
Federal funds rate
Federal Government—See Government.
Federal Reserve, member bank borrowings from
Final sales in constant dollars
Financial flows, Cl
Fixed investment—See Investment, capital.
Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic
business product
Food—See Consumer prices.
Foreign trade—See International transactions.
France—See International comparisons.
Free reserves
441
578
577
51
55
55
48c
48
40
974
41
963
442
570
90
46
60
5
962
21
453
452
451
448
42
446
445
447
444
91
37
44
45
43
1
39
17
17
38
14,17
36
51
55
17
16
16
12,16
36
16
51
51
51
51
17
51
51
51
51
15,18
18,51
18
18
18
12,16
961
36
89
91
91
61
62
76
62
74
89
91
62
61
61
61
74
61
89
89
89
89
62
89
89
89
89
62
62,89
62
62
62
61
77
74
3/85
10/85
10/85
9
56
56
11/85
12/84
7/85
12/85
7/85
8/85
3/85
7/85
2/85
2/85
2/85
1/85
1/85
7/85
3/85
3/85
3/85
3/85
2/85
3/85
3/85
3/85
3/85
2/85
2/85
2/85
3/85
2/85
7/85
"5
5
37
5
5
9
5
9
9
9
8
8
5
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
9
5
8/85
119
34
72
9/85
94
213
917
33
40
11
72
80
60
4/85
10/84
7/84
311
48
84
9/84
93
33
72
4/85
35
38
5
G
Goods output in constant dollars
Government budget
Federal expenditures
Federal receipts
.
Federal surplus or deficit
State and local expenditures ...
.
State and local receipts
. .
State and local surplus or deficit
.
Surplus or deficit, total
.
.
Government purchases of goods and services
Federal, constant dollars
. .
Federal, current dollars
.
Federal, percent ot GNP .
.
National defense
.
National defense, percent of GNP
State and local, constant dollars
.
State and local, current dollars
State and local, percent of GNP
Total, constant dollars.
Total, current dollars...
.
Gross domestic business product, fixed-weighted
priceindex
Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit
.
Gross national product
GNP, constant dollars..
.
GNP, constant dollars, differences
GNP, constant dollars, percent changes
..
GNP, current dollars....
..
.
GNP, current dollars, differences ,
GNP, current dollars, percent changes
GNP, ratio to money supply Ml
. .
Goods output in constant dollars
Implicit price deflator .,
..
Per capita GNP, constant dollars
.
...
Gross private domestic investment—See Investment, capital.
H
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Hours, manufacturing
Average weekly hours
Average weekly hours, components
Average weekly hours, Dl
Average weekly overtime
49
20
63
9/84
502
501
500
512
511
510
298
52
52
52
52
52
52
46
90
90
90
90
90
90
83
9/84
9/84
9/84
9/84
9/84
9/84
11/84
53
53
53
53
53
53
48
263
262
265
564
565
267
266
268
261
260
43
43
47
55
55
43
43
47
43
43
81
81
83
91
91
81
81
83
81
81
10/84
10/84
10/84
9/84
9/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
311
68
48
30
84
70
9/84
9/85
49
28
19,40
....
39
40
....
....
31
20
48
40
63,80
80
80
80
80
80
71
63
84
80
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
5/85
9/84
9/84
10/84
38
38
38
38
38
38
30
14
38
38
16
16
61
61
2/85
2/85
9
9
12,16 61
77
36
74
16
61
7/85
5
8/85
7/85
"5
5
50
50b
50c
200
200b
200c
107
49
310
217
46
60 .
1
961
21
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Current issue
.
Housing
Housing starts
Housing units authorized by local building permits
Residential GPDI, constant dollars
Residential GPDI, percent of GNP
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Imports—See International transactions.
Income
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
'.
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of
national income
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Consumer installment credit, ratio to personal income
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Disposable personal income, constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita,
constant dollars
Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income
National income
Personal income, constant dollars
Personal income, current dollars
Personal income less transfer payments, constant dollars
Rate of change
Total
Personal income, ratio to money supply M2
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income
...
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
.
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
Incorporations, new b u s i n e s s e s . . . .
.
Industrial commodities, producer price index
Industrial production--See also International comparisons.
Business equipment
Consumer goods
....
Defense and space equipment
.
Durable manufactures
...
Nondurable m a n u f a c t u r e s . . .
.
Total
Total, components
....
Total, Dl
Total, rate of change.
. . .
. 4
Industrials, raw, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index . . .
..
Installment credit—See Credit.
Insured unemployment
Average weekly initial claims
Average weekly initial claims, Dl
Average weekly insured unemployment rate
Interest, net
.
....
Interest, net, percent of national income
Interest rates
Bank rates on short-term business loans
Corporate bond yields
Federal funds rate
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields.
..
Prime rate charged by banks .
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
.
Intermediate materials, producer price index
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada
.
France .
..
..
...
Italy
. 7
Japan
United Kingdom
...
United States
..
West Germany
. . .
....
Industrial production
Canada
France
. .
. . . .
Italy .
. .
Japan
...
.
. . .
OECD, European countries
. . . .
United Kingdom
...
United States
. . . .
..
West Germany
Series (page numbers)
number Charts Tables
28
29
89
249
25
13,25
25
47
67
67
67
83
310
Historical
data
(issue date)
3/85
7/85
9/84
10/84
Series
description
(*)
24
24
40
40
9/84
345
280
49
45
87
82
64
30,47
346
95
286
49
15,35
45
287
225
224
47
40
40
12/84
10/84
46
46
70,83
9/84
46
88
73
82
12/84
6/85
11/84
46
33
26
83
80
80
11/84
10/84
10/84
26
11
11
227
40
340
49
87
10/85
341
652
651
288
289
220
52
223
49
57
57
45
47
45
19
40
87
93
93
82
83
82
63
63
10/85
9/85
9/85
11/84
11/84
10/84
9/84
9/84
5
57
57
47
47
46
11
11
51c
51
108
282
39
14,19
31
45
*63"
71
82
11/85
9/84
4/85
10/84
ii
30
47
47
45
83
82
10/84
10/84
47
47
47
50
50
83
88
88
11/84
9/85
9/85
47
53
53
19
23
48
63
65
85
3/85
12/85
5/85
11
21
51
24
67
22
65
54
91
20
63
20
63
1,20,58 63,94
8/85
8/85
8/85
8/85
8/85
8/85
12
12
13
12
12
12
283
284
285
348
349
53
13
335
76
75
557
73
74
47
966
7 c
967
23
10/84
78
to
37'
39
75
8/85
11/85
'l2
37'
28
79
75
69
1/85
1/85
25
25
12,16
36
18
45
1/85
1/85
3/85
11/84
U/84
8
8
8
47
47
47
61
74
62
82
83
67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115
332
35
34
34
34
34
35
34
34
48
73
73
72
73
73
73
72
73
86
12/85
9/85
9/85
9/85
9/85
6/85
9/85
9/85
5/85
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
50
733
736
3 7
738
732
320
735
59
59
59
59
59
49
59
96
95
96
95
95
84,95
95
6/85
6/85
6/85
6/85
6/85
4/85
6/85
60
61
61
61
60
49
61
94
58
58
94
58
94
94
58
58
94
58
94
4,20,58 63,94
58
94
10/85
10/85
10/85
10/85
10/85
10/85
8/85
10/85
59
59
59
59
58
58
12
59
5
962
45
288
289
723
726
727
728
721
722
47
725
See notes at end of index.
111
ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles ,ind
Sources of Series," following this index)
Stock prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
International transactions
Balance on goads and services
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports, excluding military aid
Exports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Exports of domestic agricultural products
Exports of goods and services, constant dollars
Exports ol goods and services, current dollar!.
Exports oi goods and services, excluding military
Exports ol nonelectrical machinery
Imports, general
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Imports of automobiles and parts
Imports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services, constant dollars
Imports of goods and services, current dollars
Imports of petroleum and petroleum products .,
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Net exports of goods and services,
constant dollars
Net exports of goods and services,
eurrent dollars
Net exports ol goods and services, percent ol GNP
Inventories
Business inventories, change, constant dollars
Business inventories, change, current dollars
Business inventories, change, percent ol GNP
Defense products, manufacturers'
Finished goods, manufacturers'
Inventories to sales nilio, manufacturing and trade
Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl
Manufacturing and trade, book value
Manufacturing and trade, change in book value
Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Manufacturing and trade, on hand and
on order, change
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers'
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers', change?
Investment, capital
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, Ol
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial
Construction expenditures, business, plus machinery
and equipment sales
Gross private domestic investment
Business inventories, change—See Inventories.
fixed investment, constant dollars
Fixed investment, current dollars
Nonresidential, constant dollars
Nonresidential. percent of GNP
Nonresidential producers' durable equipment,
constant dollars
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Residential, constant dollars
Residential, percent ol GNP
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
New orders, nondefense capital goods,
constant dollars
New orders, nondetense capital goods,
current dollars
Plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new
Business expenditures, new, Ol
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Investment, foreign
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Italy—See International comparisons.
Series (page m jmuers^
number Charts Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
743
746
747
748
742
19
745
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
96
96
96
96
96
96
96
11/85
11/85
11/85
11/85
11/85
11/85
11/85
63
63
63
63
63
25
63
667
622
602
618
604
256
252
668
606
612
620
616
669
257
253
614
652
651
57
57
56
57
56
44
44
57
56
56
56
57
44
44
56
57
57
93
93
92
93
92
82
82
93
92
92
93
92
93
82
82
92
93
93
9/85
9/85
12/85
9/85
12/85
10/84
10/84
9/85
12/85
12/85
9/85
12/85
9/85
10/84
10/84
12/85
9/85
9/85
57
57
56
57
56
44
44
57
56
56
57
56
57
44
44
56
57
57
255
44
82
10/84
44
250
251
44
47
82
83
10/84
10/84
44
44
30
245
247
559
65
77
915
71
31
70
975
26,42
68,81
42
47
54
27
81
83
91
68
68
60
68
68
68
76
9/84
10/84
10/84
7/85
6/85
10/85
7/84
10/85
6/85
10/85
12/85
40
40
40
17
17
17
5
17
17
17
37
36
13,26
68
10/85
17
78
27
68
6/85
17
38
26
68
6/85
17
97
11
965
914
9
24
24
37
11
23
66
66
75
60
66
2/85
2/85
2/85
7/84
10/85
22
22
22
5
21
69
24
67
8/85
17
243
242
86
248
42
42
25
47
81
81
67
83
10/84
10/84
9/84
10/84
40
40
40
40
88
87
89
249
241
240
25
25
25
47
42
42
67
67
67
83
81
81
9/84
9/84
9/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
40
40
40
40
40
40
imhprc'l
57
15,27
11
27
26
27
38
27
23
8/85
24
23
8/85
(*)
61
24
970
38
20 12,23
10
23
67
76
66
66
11/85
11/85
8/85
8/85
21
21
652
651
93
93
9/85
9/85
57
57
57
57
23
23
J
Japan—See International comparisons.
L
Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product
Labor cost per unit of output, business sector
Labor cost per unit ol output, manufacturing
Actual data
Actual data as percent of trend
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Labor force—See Employment.
Lagging indicators, six
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Leading indicators, twelve
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
See notes at end of index.
112
68
63
30
30
70
70
9/85
9/85
28
28
S2
02
J!6
30
15
29
70
70
70
8/85
8/85
1/85
28
28
28
9:0
93i)c
95?
10
39
36
9/85
12/84
910
910;
10
39
9/85
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Diffusion index
Liabilities of business failures
Liquid assets, change in total
Loans-See Credit.
£ £ 1 0
Series tpage n m ™ % }
number Charts Tables
950
14
104
M
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers'inventories
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers' inventories, change
Materials, capacity utilization rate
Materials, new orders for consumer goods and
Materials prices—See Price indexes.
Merchandise trade—See International transactions.
Military-See Defense.
Money and financial flows, Cl
Money supply
Liquid assets, change in total
Money supply Ml, constant dollars
Money supply M l , percent changes
Money supply M2, constant dollars
Money supply M2, percent changes
Ratio, GNP to money supply M l
Ratio, personal income to money supply M2
Mortgage debt, net change
'.
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
{*)
36
33
31
74
72
71
12/84
12/85
11/85
5
34
29
78
27
68
6/85
17
38
84
8
26
20
12,21
68
64
64
6/85
8/85
7/85
17
14
15
917
11
60
7/84
104
105
85
106
102
107
108
33
118
117
31
31
31
13,31
31
31
31
32
34
34
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
73
73
11/85
4/85
4/85
4/85
4/85
5/85
4/85
11/85
9/85
9/85
29
29
29
30
29
30
30
31
35
35
27
24
8
23
23
12,21
66
66
64
8/85
8/85
7/85
15
15
15
20
12,23
66
8/85
21
10
548
7
6
23
53
21
21
8/85
7/85
7/85
7/85
21
15
15
15
964
971
37
38
66
90
64
64
77
75
76
7/85
12/85
15
37
88
87
86
248
25
25
25
47
67
67
67
83
9/84
9/84
9/84
10/84
40
40
40
40
517
543
721
53
53
58
90
90
94
11/85
12/85
10/85
55
55
58
580
54
91
12/85
56
N
National defense—See Defense.
National Government—See Government,
National income—See Income.
New orders, manufacturers'
Capital goods industries, nondefense,
constant dollars
Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dollars
Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
current dollars
Defense products
Durable goods industries, constant dollars
Durable goods industries, current dollars
Components
Diffusion index
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Nonresidential fixed investment
Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars
Structures, constant dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, percent of GNP
0
Obligations incurred, Defense Department
Obligations unpaid, Defense Department
OECD, European countries, industrial production
Orders-See New orders and Unfilled orders.
Outlays, Defense Department
Output-See also Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Goods output, constant dollars
Labor cost per unit of
Actual data
Actual data as percent of trend
Per hour, business sector
Per hour, nonfarm business sector
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing
Ratio to capacity, materials
Overtime hours, manufacturing
P
Participation rates, civilian labor force
Both sexes 16-19 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Males 20 years and over
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles
Durable goods, constant dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Nondurable goods, constant dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services, constant dollars
Services, current dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Total, percent of GNP
Personal income—See Income.
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Petroleum and petroleum products, imports
Plant and equipment—See also Investment, capital.
Business expenditures, new
Business expenditures, new, Dl
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Population, civilian employment as percent of
49
20
63
9/84
14
62
62
370
358
82
84
21
30
15
50
50
20
20
16
70
70
88
88
64
64
61
8/85
8/85
1/85
1/85
8/85
8/85
7/85
52
52
453
452
451
51
51
51
89
89
89
3/85
3/85
3/85
9
9
9
55
233
232
238
236
239
237
231
230
235
22
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
47
65
80
80
81
81
81
81
80
80
83
9/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
292
293
614
46
46
56
82
83
92
11/84
11/84
12/85
48
48
56
61
970
20
10
90
24
38
12,23
23
17
67
76
66
66
62
11/85
11/85
8/85
8/85
2/85
23
23
21
21
9
28
28
14
14
5
ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and •
Sources of Series," following this index)
Current issue
Series tpage n u m b e f S )
number Charts Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
4/85
4/85
49
49
C)
Price indexes
Consumer prices—See also International comparisons.
All items
Food
Deflators
Fixed-weighted, gross domestic business product
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Producer prices
All commodities . .
Capital equipment.
Crude materials
.
Finished consumer goods
Industrial commodities ....
Intermediate matenals
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials -.
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
..
......
Spot market index
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
Stock prices—See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl .. . .
...
Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
Prices, selling
Manufacturing, Dl .
.
.
....
Retail trade, Dl
.
.
Wholesale trade, Dl
. .
Prime contract awards, Defense Department
Prime rate charged by banks
Producer prices—See Price indexes.
Producers' durable equipment, nonresidential, GPDI
Production—See Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Productivity
Output per hour, business sector
.
...
Output per hour, nonlarm business sector
Profitability, Cl
Profits
Corporate profits after tax
Constant d o l l a r s . . .
. . .
Current dollars .
. ,
With IVA and CCAdj, constant dollars
With IVA and CCAdj, current dollars
Corporate profits before tax
With IVA and CCAdj
With IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income..
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Manufacturing, Dl
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Profitability, Cf
Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income
Ratio, profits with IVA and CCAdj to corporate
domestic income,.
.
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of
national income...
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income
Reserves, free
:
Residential fixed investment, constant dollars...
Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP ....
Residential structures—See Housing.
Retail sates, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
322
49
84,95
84
311
310
26
48
48
29
84
84
70
9/84
9/84
1/85
49
38
28
330
333
331
334
335
332
98
48
48
48
48
48
48
28
85
86
85
4/85
5/85
4/85
5/85
5/85
5/85
3/85
50
51
50
51
51
50
51
967
23
37
28
79
75
69
1/85
1/85
25
25
98
28
99 13,28
69
69
3/85
3/85
51
25
19 13,28
968 37
26
29
69
75
70
11/85
7/85
1/85
25
25
28
976
978
977
525
109
38
38
38
53
35
76
76
76
90
73
12/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
6/85
37
37
37
55
35
88
25
320
49
Current issue
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Series (page nijmbers)
number Charts Tables
S
Salaries—See Compensation.
Sales
Final sales, constant dollars
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, Dl
Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Saving
Business saving
Government surplus or deficit
Gross saving
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Selling prices-See Prices, selling
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
Shipments of defense products
Spot market prices, raw industrials
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
State and local government—See Government.
Stock prices—See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Surplus—See Government.
213
52
52
5
69
69
69
69
9/84
9/84
9/84
9/84
26
26
26
26
45
47
38
37
29
11
29
82
83
76
75
70
60
69
11/84
11/84
12/85
12/85
11/85
7/84
9/84
26
26
37
37
27
5
26
29
45
70
82
9/84
10/84
26
47
18
16
28
28
29
29
286
287
972
960
15
916
22
81
282
283
10/84
24
14,22
22
38
15,27
22
22
67
65
65
76
68
65
65
8/85
10/85
10/85
12/85
10/85
4/85
4/85
17
17
17
37
17
20
20
295
298
290
292
292
293
46
46
46
46
46
82
83
82
82
83
11/84
11/84
11/84
11/84
11/84
26
48
43
48
48
98
99
588
28
13,28
54
69
69
91
3/85
3/85
7/85
51
25
17
967
23
37
28
79
75
69
1/85
1/85
"25
25
19
968
13,28
37
69
75
11/85
7/85
25
25
114
115
34
34
72
73
9/85
9/85
35
35
91
60
5
962
15,18
16
12,16
36
62
61
61
74
2/85
2/85
1/85
1/85
9
9
8
8
446
446
445
447
444
37
51
51
51
51
18.51
89
89
89
89
62,89
3/85
3/85
3/85
3/85
2/85
9
9
9
9
9
44
45
43
18
18
18
62
62
62
2/85
3/85
2/85
9
8
9
561
96
25
54
21
21
91
64
64
7/85
6/85
6/85
15
15
15
Velocity of money
GNP to money supply M l , ratio
Personal income to money supply M2, ratio..
Vendor performance, slower deliveries
107
108
32
31
31
12,21
71
71
64
5/85
4/85
2/85
30
30
17
Wages and salaries—See Compensation.
West Germany—See International comparisons.
Wholesale (producer) prices—See Price indexes.
Workweek, manufacturing
Average weekly hours
Components
Diffusion index
12,16
961
61
77
74
8/85
9/84
1/85
1/85
7/84
50
50
11
Series
description
(*>
69
57
56
973
77
59
54
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields....
370
358
916
Historical
data
(issue date)
10/84
47
967
23
284
37
28
45
79
75
69
82
285
93
89
249
47
33
25
47
83
72
67
83
11/84
4/85
9/84
10/84
47
35
40
40
59
54
22
22
65
65
4/85
4/85
20
20
1/85
1/85
10/84
25
25
47
U
Unemployment
Duration of unemployment, average
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims for unemployment insurance
Initial claims for unemployment insurance, Dl
Number unemployed
Both sexes 1619 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Full-time workers
Males 20 years and over
,
Total unemployed
Unemployment rates
15 weeks and over
Insured unemployment
Total
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products
Durable goods industries
Durable goods industries, change
United Kingdom—See International comparisons.
7/85
NOTE: CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GNP, gross national product; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; IVA, inventory valuation adjustment.
* The number shown is the page of the Handbook of Cyclical Indicators (1984) on which the series description appears.
113
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Series are listed below according to the sections of this
report in which they appear. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect relationships or
order among the series. " M " following a series title
indicates monthly data; "Q" indicates quarterly data.
Data apply to the whole period except when indicated by
"EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter).
To save space, the commonly usod sources listed below
are referred to by number:
Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Following the source for each series is an indication of
the pages on which that series appears. The "Series
Finding Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers
for each series.
I-A. Composite Indexes
910.
Composite index of twelve leading indicators
(includes series 1, 5r 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99,
106,111) (Wl).—Source 1
(10,39,60)
914. Composite index of capital investment commitments
(includes sertes 12, 20, 29) (M).-Source 1 (11,60)
915. Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 99) (M).-Source
1
(11,60)
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, and McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis
(23,66)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).—The Conference
Board
(24,66)
12. Index of net business formation (M).-Source 1;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(12,23,65)
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).-Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(23,65)
38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials
and supplies on hand and on order, book value
(M).-Source2
(26,68)
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent
30 days and over (EOM).—American Bankers
Association
(33,72)
18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars (Q).- •
Source 1
(28,69)
40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goodsproducing industries (M).-Source 3
(17,62)
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—
Standard & Poor's Corporation
(13,28,59,69,96)
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (M).—Source
3
(14,17,62)
42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (M).-Source 3
(17,62)
Composite index of money and financial flows
(includes series 104, 106, 111) (M).-Source
1
(11,60)
Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators (includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).—Source
1
(10,39,60)
21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—
Source 3
(16,61)
Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes
series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)
22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to total
corporate domestic income (Q).—Source 1
(29,69)
23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials (M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau,
Inc. (Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981,
this series may not be reproduced without written
permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.)
(28,69,79)
I-B. Cyclical Indicators
1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M). -Source 3
(12,16,61,77)
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs (M),—U.S. Department
of Labor, Employment and Training Administration;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Econorric Analysis
(18,51,62,89)
16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(28,69)
917.
Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to
lagging composite index (series 930) (M).—Source
1
(11,60)
36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on
hand and on order in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources 1
and 2
(13,26,68)
15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations (Q).—Source 2 and Federal Trade
Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(29,70)
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2t and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(12,23,66)
940.
35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars (Q) -Source
1
(29,70)
37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3
Composite index of profitability (includes series
19,26,80) (M).—Source 1
(11,60)
930.
34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars (Q).
Source 1
(29,70)
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).-Dun
& Bradstreet, Inc.
(33,72)
916.
920.
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies ( M ) . Sources 1; 4; American Council of Life Insurance;
Federal National Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; and Federal Home
Loan Bank Board; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(32,71)
24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Source 2
(23,66)
25.
Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable
goods industries (M).—Source 2
(21,64)
26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost,
nonfarm business sector (Q).—Sources 1 and 3
43. Unemployment rate (M).-Source 3
(18,62)
44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks
and over (M).-Source3
(18,62)
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration
(18,62)
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers
(M).-The Conference Board
(16,61)
47. Index of industrial production (M).—Source 4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
(M).-Source3
(17,39,61)
49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(20,63)
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982
dollars (M).-Source 1
(14,19,39,63)
52. Personal income in 1982 dollars (M).—Source 1
(29,70)
(19,63)
6. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, durable
goods industries (M).-Source 2
0?l,64,77)
27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1972 dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Sources 1
and 2
(23,66)
53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Source 1
(19,63)
7. Manufacturers' new orders in 1972 dollars, durable goods industries (M) .-Sources 1 and 2
(21,64)
28. New private housing units started (M).-Source
2
(25,67)
8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1972 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (M).—Sources
1 and 2
(12,21,64)
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by
local building permits (M).-Source 2
(13,25,67)
(12,16,61)
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings, floor space (M). McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (Us;ed by
permission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
(?3,66)
114
30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(26,42,68,81)
31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories,
book value (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(26,68)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (M).—Purchasing Management Association of Chicago
(12,21,64)
54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M) -Source
2
(22,65)
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles
(Q).—Source 1
(22,65)
56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars
(M).-Sourcesland2
(22,65)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars
(M).-Sourcesland2
(14,22,65)
58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M).—University
of Michigan, Survey Research Center
(22,65)
59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1
and 2
(22,65)
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to
number of persons unemployed (M).—Sources 1,
3r and The Conference Board
(16,61)
88. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1982 dollars, producers' durable equipment (Q).—
Source 1
(25,67)
61. Expenditures for new plant and equipment by U.S.
nonfarm business (Q).—Source 1
(24,67)
89. Gross private residential fixed investment in 1982
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(15,30,70)
90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (M).-Sources 1 and 3
(17,62)
63. Index of unit labor cost, business sector (Q).—Source
3
(30,70)
91. Average duration of unemployment in weeks (M).—
Source 3
(15,18,62)
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)
93. Free reserves (M).-Source4
65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods, book
value (EOM).—Source 2
(27,68)
66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (EOM).Source 4
(35,73)
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).—Source
4
(35,73)
68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross
domestic product in 1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations (Q).—Source 1
(30,70)
69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (M),—Source
2
(24,67)
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1972 dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2
(27,68)
71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, book value
(EOM).-Sourcesland2
(27,68)
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4 and The Federal
Reserve Bank of New York
(35,73)
73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures (M).-Source 4
(20,63)
74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures (M).-Source4
(20,63)
75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods
(M).-Source4
(22,65)
76. Index of industrial production, business equipment
(M).-Source4
(24,67)
77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in
1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(15,27,68)
78. Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies
on hand and on order, book value (EOM).—Source
2
(27,68)
79. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(29,69)
80. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in 1982
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(29,69)
81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with
inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate domestic income (Q).—
Source 1
(29,70)
82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (M).—
Source 4
(20,64)
84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (M).—Source
4
(20,64)
85. Change in money supply Ml (M).-Source 4
(31,71)
86. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)
87. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1982 dollars, structures (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)
(33,72)
94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
(M).-Source 4
(33,72)
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to
personal income (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(15,35,73)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).—Source 2
(21,64)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (EOQ).—The Conference Board
(24,66)
I-C. Diffusion Indexes
950. Diffusion index of twelve leading indicator components (M).-Source 1
(36,74)
951. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator
components (M).—Source 1
(36,74)
952. Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components
(M).-Sourcel
(36,74)
960. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing—about
600 companies (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used
by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(35,75)
961. Diffusion index of average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing
industries (M).-Sources 1 and 3
(36,74,77)
962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, 51 areas (M).^Source
1 and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and
Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(36,74)
98. Percent change in producer prices for 28 sensitive
crude and intermediate materials (M).—Sources 1
and 3
(28,69)
963. Diffusion index of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 172-186 industries (M). Source
3
(36,74)
99. Change in sensitive materials prices (M).—Sources 1,
3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
(13,28,69)
964. Diffusion index of manufacturers' new orders, 34-35
durable goods industries (M). -Sources 1 and 2
(37,75,77)
101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1972
dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4, and The Federal Reserve
Bank of New York
(15,35,73)
102. Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4
965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations in 1972 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries (Q).—The Conference Board
(37,75)
(31,71)
Change in total liquid assets (M).—Sources 1 and 966. Diffusion index of industrial production, 24 industries (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(37,75,78)
4
(31,71)
967.
Diffusion
index
of
spot
market
prices,
13
raw indus105. Money supply Ml in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1
trial materials (M),—Sources 1, 3, and Commodity
and 4
(31,71)
Research Bureau, Inc.
(37,75,79)
106. Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1
968.
Diffusion
index
of
stock
prices,
500
common
stocks,
and 4
(13,31,71)
45-82 industries (M).—Source 1 and Standard &
107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply M l
Poor's Corporation
(37,75)
(Q).—Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)
104.
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M).—
Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)
109. Average prime rate charged by banks (M).—Source
4
(35,73)
110. Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
credit markets (Q).-Source 4
(32,72)
111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding
(M).—Sources 1, 4, Federal Home Loan Bank Board,
and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (13,32,72)
112.
113.
114.
115.
970. Diffusion index of expenditures for new plant and
equipment by U.S. nonfarm business, 22 industries
(Q).-Sourcel
(38,76)
971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about
600 businessmen reporting ( Q ) - D u n & Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)
972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Net change in business loans (M).—Sources 1, 4,
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This
and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (32,71)
series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
Net change in consumer installment credit (M).—
Source 4
(32,72)
973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and
Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
bitts (M).—Source 4
(34,72)
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This
series may not be reproduced without written
Yield on Jong-term Treasury bonds (M).-U.S. Departpermission from the source.)
(38,76)
ment of the Treasury
(34,73)
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(M).—Citibank and U.S. Department of the Treasury
(34,73)
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average ( M ) - T h e
Bond Buyer
(34,73)
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages ( M ) . U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development,
Federal Housing Administration
(34,73)
119. Federal funds rate (M).-Source4
(34,72)
974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting
(Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting
(Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
115
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
976. Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing— 243. Gross private domestic fixed investment in 1982
about 600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun &
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
245. Change in business inventories in current dollars
may not be reproduced without written permission
(Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
from the source.)
(38,76)
247. Change in business inventories as a percent of
977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale tradegross national product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
about 400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series 248. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment as a
percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
may not be reproduced without written permission
1
(47,83)
from the source.)
(38,76)
289. Net interest as a percent of national income ( Q ) Source 1
290. Gross saving (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
(46,82)
292. Personal saving (Q).-Sou r e e l
(46,82)
293. Personal saving rate (Q).-Source 1
(46,83)
295. Business saving (Q).—Source 1
(46,82)
298. Government surplus or deficit (Q).—Source 1
(46,83)
978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade—about 249. Gross private residential fixed investment as a
percent of gross national product (Q).—Source II—B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet,
1
(47,83) 310. Implicit price deflator for gross national product
Inc. (Used by permission. Tiis series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the 250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars
(Q).-Sourcel
(48,84)
source.)
(38,76)
(Q).-Source 1
(44,82)
311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product (Q).-Source 1
(48,84)
251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of
II—A. National Income and Product
gross national product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
320. Consumer price index for all urban consumers
30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Q).— 252. Exports of goods and services in current dollars
(M).-Source 3
(49,59,84,95)
Source 1
(26,42,68,81)
(Q).-Sou r e e l
(44,82)
322. Consumer price index for all urban consumers,
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 253. Imports of goods and services in current dollars
food(M).-Source3
(49,84)
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
(Q).-Source 1
(44,82) 330. Producer price index, all commodities (M).-Source
64. Compensation of employees as percent of national 255. Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
3
(48,85)
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)
(Q).-Source 1
(44,82)
331. Producer price index, crude materials for further
200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).— 256. Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
processing (M).-Source 3
(48,85)
Source 1
(40,80)
(Q).-Source 1
(44,82)
332. Producer price index, intermediate materials, sup213. Final sales in 1982 dollars (Q).-Smirce 1
(40,80) 257. Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
plies, and components (M).-Source 3
(48,86)
217.
220.
223.
224.
Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Sourcesland2
(40,80)
National income in current dollars (Q).—Source
1
(45,82)
Personal income in current dollars (M).—Source
1
(40,63)
Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(40,80)
(Q).-Source 1
(44,82)
260. Government purchases of goods and services in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
261. Government purchases of goods and services in
1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
333. Producer price index, capital equipment (M).—
Source 3
(48,86)
334. Producer price index, finished consumer goods
(M).-Source 3
(48,86)
335. Producer price index, industrial commodities
(M).-Source3
(48,85)
263. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source 1
(43,81)
340. Index of average hourly earnings of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural
payrolls (M).-Source3
(49,87)
225.
Disposable personal income in 198? dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(40,80)
227.
Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q).—Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)
265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)
341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production
or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (M).-Source 3
(49,87)
230.
Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars (Q). -Source 1
(41,80)
266. State and local government purchases of goods and
services in current dollars (Q)-Source 1
(43,81)
345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3
(49,87)
231.
Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars
(Q).—Source 1
(41,80)
267. State and local government purchases of goods and
services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
232.
Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, durable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,80)
268. State and local government purchases of goods and
services as a percent of gross national product
346. Index of real average hourly compensation, alt
employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source
3
(49,88)
233.
Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, durable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,80)
280. Compensation of employees (Q).-Source 1
235.
Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of
gross national product (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments (Q). Source
1
(45,82)
236.
Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, nondurable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,81)
237.
Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, services (Q).—Source 1
(41,81)
238.
Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, nondurable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,81)
239.
Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, services (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
240.
Gross private domestic investment in current dollars (Q).—Source 1
(42,81)
241.
Gross private domestic investment in 19112 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
242.
Gross private domestic fixed investment in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
116
(Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
(45,82)
283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments as a percent of
national income (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment (Q).-Source 1
(45,82)
285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)
286. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—
Source 1
(45,82)
348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average
first year changes (Q).-Source 3
(50,88)
349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average
changes over life of contract (Q)-Source 3 (50,88)
358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,88)
370. Index of output per hour, all persons, business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,88)
Il-C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3
(18,51,62,89)
441. Civilian labor force (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
442, Civilian employment (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valua- 444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over
tion and capital consumption adjustments as a
(M).-Source 3
(51,89)
percent of national income (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over
(M).-Source3
(51,89)
288. Net interest (Q).-Source 1
(45,82)
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES—Continued
446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of
age (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
447. Number unemployed, full-time workers ( M ) . —
Source 3
(51,89)
443. Number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20
years and over (M).—Source 3
(51,89)
452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20
years and over (M).—Source 3
(51,89)
453. Civilian tabor force participation rate, both sexes
16-19 years of age (M)-Source 3
(51,89)
II—D. Government Activities
500. Federal Government surplus or deficit (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)
501. Federal Government receipts (Q).—Source 1
570. Employment, defense products industries (M).—
Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(55,91)
577. Defense Department military personnel on active
duty (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office
of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports
(55,91)
578. Defense Department civilian personnel, direct hire employment (EOM)-U.S. Department of Defense, Office
of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller),
Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for
Information Operations and Reports
(55,91)
580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions
and military assistance (M).—U.S. Department of
Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense
(Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(54,91)
47. United States, index of industrial production ( M ) . ~
Source 4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
320. United States, consumer price index for alt urban
consumers (M).—Source 3
(49,59,84,95)
721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European countries, index of industrial
production (M) .—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(58,94)
722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production
(M) .-Central Statistical Office (London)
(58,94)
723. Canada, index of industrial production ( M ) . Statistics Canada (Ottawa)
(58,94)
725. West Germany, index of industrial production (M),—
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(58,94)
726. France, index of industrial production (M).—Institut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(58,94)
588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products ( M ) Source 2
(54,91)
727. Italy, index of industrial production (M).-lstituto
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(58,94)
502. Federal Government expenditures (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)
Il-E. U.S. International Transactions
510. State and local government surplus or deficit (Q).—
Source 1
(52,90)
728. Japan, index of industrial production (M) — Ministry
of Internationa! Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(58,94)
602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments (M).—
Source 2
(56,92)
511. State and local government receipts (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)
604. Exports of domestic agricultural products (M).—
Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(56,92)
(52,90)
512. State and local government expenditures (Q).—
Source 1
(52,90)
517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred
(M).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the
Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
525. Defense Department prime contract awards for work
performed in the United States (M).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of
Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters
Services, Directorate for Information Operations
and Reports; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations
outstanding (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense,
Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(53,90)
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).—Source
2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
612. General imports (M).-Source 2
(56,92)
614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
(M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(56,92)
616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).—Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(56,92)
618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Sourcel
(57,93)
620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Source 1
'
(57,93)
622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).—Source 1
(57,93)
651. Income on U.S. investment abroad (Q).—Source
1
(57,93)
548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products (M).—
Source 2
(53,90)
652. Income on foreign investment in the United States
(Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
557. Index of industrial production, defense and space
equipment (M).—Source 4
(54,91)
667. Balance on goods and services (Q).—Source 1
559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products, book
value(E0M).-Source2
(54,91)
561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products
(EOM).-Source2
(54,91)
564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q).—Source 1
(55,91)
565. National defense purchases as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)
(57,93)
668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under U.S. military grants (Q).—Source 1
(57,93)
669. Imports of goods and services (Q).—Source 1
(57,93)
II—F. International Comparisons
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (M).—Standard & Poor's Corporation
(13,28,59,69,96)
732. United Kingdom, consumer price index ( M ) . —
Department of Employment (London); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(59,95)
733. Canada, consumer price index (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted
by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
735. West Germany, consumer price index
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden);
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of
ic Analysis
(M).—
percent
Econom(59,95)
736. France, consumer price index (M).—Institut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris);
percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(59,95)
737. Italy, consumer price index (M).—Istituto Centrale di
Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
738. Japan, consumer price index (M).—Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(59,95)
742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M) .-Central
Statistical Office (London)
(59,96)
743. Canada, index of stock prices ( M ) . — Toronto
Stock Exchange (Toronto)
(59,96)
745. West Germany, index of stock prices ( M ) . —
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(59,96)
746. France, index of stock prices (M).—Institut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(59,96)
747. Italy, index of stock prices (M).-Banca d*Italia
(Rome)
(59,96)
748. Japan, index of stock prices (M).—Bank of Japan
(Tokyo)
(59,96)
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