Full text of Business Conditions Digest : December 1985
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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary D. Bruce Merrifield, Acting Under Secretary for Economic Affairs BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Allan H. Young, Director Carol S. Carson, Deputy Director Edward K. Smith, Associate Director for National Analysis and Projections FeliksTamm, Editor This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are— Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review Brian D. Kajutti—Composite indexes Betty F. Tun stall—Data collection and compilation (Phone: 202-523-0541) The cooperation of Government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and sources at the back of this report. This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consisting of the following persons: Ronald E. Kutscher, Acting Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor Ahmad Al-Samarrie, Office of Management and Budget Lincoln F. Anderson, Council of Economic Advisers John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury Edward K. Smith, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce Charles A. Waite, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce Helmut F. Wendel, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ABOUT THIS REPORT BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides a monthly look at many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts and forecasters. The original BCD, which began publication in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions and prospects. The report's contents were based largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its usefulness*to analysts using other approaches to business conditions analysis. Principal additions to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's present title was adopted. The dominant feature of the current BCD is the cyclical indicators section, in which each business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way timing classification according to its behavior at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of presentation is explained in the introductory text which begins on page 1. Annual subscription price: $44.00 domestic, $55.00 foreign. Single copy price: $4.00 domestic, $5.00 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are available on request. Address correspondence Most of the data contained in this report also are published by their source agencies. A series finding guide and a complete list of series titles and sources can be found at the back of the report. Cyclical Indicators are economic time series which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process and by their average timing at business cycle peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks and troughs combined. These indicators have been selected primarily on the basis of their cyclical behavior, but they also have proven useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business conditions and prospects. They include selected components of the national income and product accounts; measures of prices, wages, and productivity; measures of the labor force, employment, and unemployment; economic data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with major foreign countries. concerning subscriptions to Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Make checks payable to Superintendent of Documents. BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST New Features and Changes for This Issue BCII iii METHOD OF PRESENTATION Seasonal Adjustments MCD Moving Averages Reference Turning Dates Part I. Cyclical Indicators Part II. Other Important Economic Measures How To Read Charts How To Locate a Series Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes 1 1 1 1 4 5 5 6 DECEMBER 1985 Data Through November Volume 25, Number 12 PART I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS Al A2 A3 LA4J COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Composite indexes Leading Index Components Coincident Index Components Lagging Index Components . Chart 10 12 14 15 Table 60 — — — 16 19 21 23 26 28 31 61 63 64 65 68 69 71 36 — 39 74 77 — CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS R1 B2 B3 B4 B5 Employment and Unemployment Production and Income Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries Fixed Capital Investment Inventories and inventory Investment Prices, Costs, and Profits . Money and Credit . . .. DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Cl C2 _C3 Diffusion Indexes Selected Diffusion Index Components Rates of Change The Secretary of Commerce has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business required by law of this Department. Use of funds for printing this periodical has been approved by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget through September 30, 1986. BCII PART II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES Al A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 A7 A8 NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT GNP and Personal Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Gross Private Domestic Investment Government Purchases of Goods and Services Foreign Trade National Income and Its Components Saving Shares of GNP and National Income Bl B2 PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY Price Movements Wages and Productivity Chart 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 Table 80 80 81 81 82 82 82 83 48 49 84 87 Civilian Labor Force and Major Components 51 89 GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Receipts and Expenditures Defense Indicators 52 53 90 90 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Merchandise Trade Goods and Services Movements 56 57 92 93 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Industrial Production Consumer Prices Stock Prices 58 59 59 94 95 96 LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT PART III. APPENDIXES A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators) QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators) B. Current Adjustment Factors C. Historical Data for Selected Series 97 98 D. Descriptions and Sources Of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide") E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (July 1985 issue) F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators (August 1985 issue) G. Experimental Data and Analyses Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide Titles and Sources of Series 105 110 U4 Readers are invited to submit comments and suggestions concerning this publication. Address them to Feliks Tamm, Chief, Statistical Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230 NEW FEATURES AND CHANGES FOR THIS ISSUE A limited number of changes are made from time to time to incorporate recent find- BCD DATA ON DISKETTE Data for most series shown regularly in BCD now available on diskette for $240 per year (12 updates). For more information, write to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BE-60), U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230. ings of economic research, newly available time series, and revisions made by source agencies in concept, composition, comparability, coverage, seasonal adjustment methods, benchmark data, etc. Changes may result in revisions of Changes in this issue are as follows: data, additions or 1. The series based on data from the national income and product accounts (NIPA) have been revised by the source agency. These revisions reflect a comprehensive (benchmark) revision; incorporation of new and revised source data; changes in definitions and classifications; and statistical changes, including improved estimation procedures and a shift in the base year (from 1972 to 1982) for the constant-dollar estimates and the associated price indexes and implicit price deflators. All series are revised for the period 1973 to date; many are revised for earlier years as well. Revised data are shown in this issue for series 16, 18, 22, 30, 34, 35, 49-53, 55, 64, 68, 70, 79-81, 86-89, 95, 107, 108, and 223 in section I-B; all series in section II-A; series 310 and 311 in section II-B; and series 500-502, 510512, 564, and 565 in section II-D. Revised data for other series affected by these revisions (series 20, 27, 36, 57, 59, 62, 77, and the inventory-sales ratios shown in appendix G) will be published in a subsequent issue. Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Wealth Division. (Continued on page iv.) The January issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for release on February 4. iti deletions of series, changes in placement of series in relation to other series, changes in composition of indexes, etc, 2. The series on employee hours in nonagricultural establishments (series 48) has been revised by the source agency for the period 1978 to date. This revision reflects the adoption of a new benchmark (March 1984) for the period April 1983 to date and the application of new seasonal adjustment factors for 1978 to date. Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Productivity and Technology, Division of Productivity Research. 3. The quarterly series based wholly or in part on merchandise exports and imports (series 618, 620, 622, and 667-669) have been revised by the source agency for the period 1983 to date. These revisions reflect the recent change by the Census Bureau (the compiler of the basic data) in the "statistical month" of the data. The statistical month formerly was the month in which documents were processed by the Census Bureau. It now is the month in which imports were released from Customs and the month in which exports actually were shipped. Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Balance of Payments Division, 4. Appendix C contains historical data for series 12-14, 67, 525, 543, 580, 602, 604, 606, 612, 614, 616, 960, and 971-978. 5. Appendix G contains cyclical comparisons for series 45, 47, 48, 82, 910, and 920. NEW SERVICE AVAILABLE A recorded message that provides current data for the composite indexes of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators is now in operation. This 4-minute recording, which will be updated monthly, can be heard by telephoning 202-898-2450. IV METHOD OF PRESENTATION adjustment is occasionally required for holidays Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional This report is organized into two major parts. adjustment is sometimes necessary for series Business cycles have been defined as sequences Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time which contain considerable variation due to the of expansion and contraction in various economic number of working or trading days in each month, series which have been found to conform well to broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of As used in this report, the term "seasonal processes that show up as major fluctuations in ageconomic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday gregate economic activity-that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment, individual indicators, the rest are related analytical adjustments where they have been made. Most of the series in this report are presented in income, and trade.. While recurrent and pervasive, measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes, and rates of change. Part II, Other Important seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these business cycles of historical experience have been Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which are the official figures released by the source definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in are valuable to business analysts and forecasters agencies. However, for the special purposes of this duration and intensity, reflecting changes in but which do not conform well enough to business report, a number of series not ordinarily published economic systems, conditions, policies, and cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a outside disturbances. One of the techniques developed in business few exceptions: Four series which are included in seasonally adjusted basis. cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzpart I are also shown in part II to complete the ing current economic conditions and prospects is systematic presentation of certain sets of data, MCD Moving Averages the cyclical indicators approach. This approach such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest Month-to-month changes in a series are often identifies certain economic time series as tending section of part II consists of quarterly series from the national income and product accounts; other dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad sections relate to prices, labor force, government cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appro- movements in aggregate economic activity. Such and defense-related activities, and international priate span over which to observe cyclical indicators have been selected and analyzed by movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.) NBER in a series of studies published between transactions and comparisons. It is the smallest span of months for which the 1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new The two parts are further divided into sections average change in the cyclical factor is greater than comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was (see table of contents), and each of these sections that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a is described briefly in this introduction. Data are series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. (BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research begin with 1959, but those for the composite MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of staff. The present format and content of part I of indexes and their components (part I, section A) the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the BCD are based on the results of that study. begin with 1948, and a few charts use a two-panel same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a format which covers only the period since 1974. 5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5 Section A. Composite Indexes and Except for section F in part II, charts contain will show its cyclical movements about as clearly Their Components shading which indicates periods of recession in as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an All cyclical indicators have been evaluated acgeneral business activity. The tables contain data MCD of 1. cording to six major characteristics: Economic for only the last few years. The historical data for significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of The charts in this report generally include the various time series are contained in the 1984 centered MCD moving averages for those series timing at business cycle peaks and troughs, Handbook of Cyclical Indicators. with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally conformity to business expansions and In addition to the charts and tables described adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability above, each issue contains a summary table which variation about the moving averages and to provide (currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme shows the current behavior of many of the series. was developed and used to assess each series by all observations for the most recent months. Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors, of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and meavSures of variability, specific cycle turning November 1975 issues of BCD.) The resulting Reference Turning Dates dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series information of analytical interest. An index appears The historical business cycle turning dates used during the period 1947-70. This analysis produced at the back of each issue. It should be noted that in this report are those designated by the National a new list of indicators classified by economic the series numbers used are for identification Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They process and typical timing at business cycle peaks purposes only and do not reflect precise mark the approximate dates when, according to and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below relationships or order. However, all series NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its relating to section B.) considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general This information, particularly the scores relating th« range 1 to 199. practice, neither new reference turning dates nor to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the the shading for recessions will be entered on the selection of series to be included in the composite charts until after both the new reference peak and indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring Seasonal Adjustments the new reference trough bounding the shaded area series from many different economic-process Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations have been designated. groups and combine those with similar timing are often necessary to bring out the underlying The historical reference turning dates are subject behavior, using their overall performance scores as trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for to occasional reviews by NBER and may be changed weights. Because they use series of historically the effects of repetitive intrayear variations as a result of revisions in important economic tested usefulness and given timing characteristics resulting primarily from normal differences in time series. The dates shown in this publication (for example, leading at both peaks and troughs), weather conditions and from various institutional for the 1948-70 time period are those determined with diversified economic coverage and a minimum arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has designated of duplication, composite indexes give more are usually accounted for by the seasonal turning points for recessions in 1973-75, 1980, and reliable signals over time than do any of the adjustment process; however, a separate holiday individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the 1981-82. 1 Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks \ . Economic \lProcess CyclicalV Timing 1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (15 series) II. PRODUCTION AND INCOME (10 series) III. CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES (13 series) Marginal employment adjustments (3 series) Job vacancies (2 series) Comprehensive employment (1 se-ies) Comprehensive unemployment (3 seres) Capacity utilization (2 series) Orders and deliveries (6 series) Consumption and trade (2 series) Comprehensive employment (1 series) Comprehensive output and income (4 series) industrial production (4 series) Consumption and trade (4 series) \ LEADING (L) INDICATORS (61 series) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT (C) INDICATORS (23 series) LAGGING (Lg) INDICATORS (19 series) Comprehensive unemployment (2 series; TIMING UNCLASSIFIED (U) (8 series) Comprehensive employment (3 series) IV. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (18 series) Formation of business enterprises (2 series) Business investment commitments (5 series) Residential construction : (3 series) VI. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (18 series) VII. MONEY AND CREDIT (28 series) Inventory investment (4 series) Inventories on hand and on order (1 series) Stock prices (1 series) Sensitive commodity prices (2 series) Profits and profit margins (7 series) Cash flows (2 series) Money (5 m m ) Credit ftows (5 series) Credit difficulties (2 series) Bank reserves (2 series) Interest rates (1 series) Business investment commitments (1 series) Business investment expenditures (5 series) Business investment expenditures (1 series) Consumption and trade (1 series) V. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (9 series) Velocity of money (2 series) Interest rates {2 series) Inventories on hand and on order (4 series) Business investment commitments (1 series) Unit labor costs and labor share (4 series) interest rates (4 series) Outstanding debt (4 series) Sensitive commodity prices (1 series) Profits and profit margins ( I series) Interest rates (1 series) VII. MONEY AND CREDIT (28 series) B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs ^ v \ . Economic Process Cyclical^. Timing N. 1. II. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (15 series) PRODUCTION AND INCOME (10 series) Marginal employment adjustments (1 series) Marginal employmer t adjustments (2 series) Comprehensive employment (4 series) III. CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES (13 series) IV. V. VI. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (18 series) INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (9 series) PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (18 series) industrial production (1 series) Orders and deliveries (5 series) Consumption and trade (4 series) Formation of business enterprises (2 series) Business investment commitments (4 series) Residential construction (3 series) Inventory investment (4 series) Stock prices U wits) Comprehensive output and income (4 series) Industrial production (3 series) Capacity utilization (2 series) Consumption and trade (3 series) Business investment commitments (1 series) Orders and deliveries (1 series) Business investment commitments (2 Series) Business investment expenditures LEADING (L) INDICATORS (47 series) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT (C) INDICATORS (23 series) LAGGING (Lg) INDICATORS (40 series^ Job vacancies (2 series) Comprehensive employment (1 series) Comprehensive unemployment (5 series) TIM1MO I Imliio UNCLASSIFIED (U) (1 series) (6 series) Inventories on hand and on order (5 series) Sensitive commodity prices (3 series) Profits and profit margins (6 series) Cash flows (2 series) Money (4 $&m) Credit flows (5 sems) Credit difficulties (2 series) Profits and profit margins (2 series) Money (1 series) Velocity of money {1 series) Unit labor costs and labor share (4 series) Velocity of money (1 series) Bank reserves (1 series) Interest rates (8 series) Outstanding debt (4 series) Bank reserves (1 series) independent measurement error and other "noise" in the included series are smoothed out in the index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly series that are acceptable in terms of relatively prompt availability and reasonable accuracy. The main composite indexes are distinguished by their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of leading indicators, series which historically reached their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the corresponding business cycle turns. There is an index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting of series which historically reached their turning points at about the same time as the general economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which includes series that typically reached their peaks and troughs later than the corresponding business cycle turns. The leading index contains series with long as well as short leads, but each series leads on the average over time and shows a frequency of leads at the individual turns exceeding that attributable to chance, given the historical distribution of cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948, leads were generally more frequent and longer at peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags were generally more frequent and longer at troughs than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and classifying the indicators takes into account these well-established differences in timing. Consequently, rough coincidences include short leads (») and lags ( + ) as well as exact coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is from -3 through + 1 at peaks and from -1 through + 3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and plus denotes lags in months.) For purposes of constructing a composite index, each component series is standardized: The monthto-month percent changes in a given series are divided by the long-run average (without regard to sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile series are prevented from dominating the index. The coincident index is calculated so that its longterm trend (since 1948) equals the average of the trends of its four components. This trend, which is similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be viewed as a linear approximation to the secular movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagging indicators have been adjusted so that both their trends and their average month-to-month percent changes (without regard to sign) are approximately equal to those of the coincident index. (For a more detailed description of the method of constructing the composite indexes, see the 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators) In addition to these principal composite indexes, differentiated according to cyclical timing, there are five indexes based on leading indicators which have been grouped by economic process. Taken together, these additional indexes include all 12 component series of the overall leading index, plus a few related series. Also shown in this section is the ratio of the index of roughly coincident indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a series known to have a useful pattern of early cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of the composite indexes show the length, in'months, of leads (-) and lags ( + ) at each of the reference turning dates covered. The next set of data consists of series included in the principal composite indexes. These are the 12 components of the leading index, the 4 Components of the coincident index, and the 6 components of the lagging index. Following the title of each series, its typical timing is identified by three letter symbols in a small box. The first of these letters refers to the timing of the given indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs combined. H L" denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a tendency to roughly coincide with the business cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency to lag. Since these series have been selected for the consistency of their timing at both peaks and troughs, all components of the leading index are denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging index "LgTLg,Lg." It should be remembered that these classifications are based on limited evidence, namely the performance of the indicators during the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which included five peaks and five troughs. While the timing classifications are expected to agree with the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will not necessarily hold invariably in every instance. The timing of the series in the period since 1970 can be determined by inspection of the charts, where the recessions of 1973-75, 1980, and 1981-82 are shaded according to the dates of the NBER reference cycle chronology. Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process This section covers 111 individual time series, including the 22 indicators used in the construction of the composite indexes. The peak and trough timing classifications are shown on the charts in the same manner as described above, but this section includes series with different timing at peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at turning points of the given type. Eight series are unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 19 series at all turns (of the 19, 15 have definite but different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs is included in the list of cyclical indicators. The classification scheme which groups the indicators of this section by economic process and cyclical timing is summarized in the two tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is based on the observed behavior of the series at five business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53, August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April f58, February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation distinguishes seven major economic processes and four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells identify subgroups of the given economic process with the given timing characteristic. The number of series in each such group is given in parentheses following the title. Complete information on how individual indicators are classified by timing at peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected measures and scores, is provided in the 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators. Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from numerous components. How the individual components of an aggregate move over a given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index which indicates the percentage of components that are rising (with half of the unchanged components considered rising). Cyclical changes in these diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, they are computed from changes measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter) spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans. Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes are shown for the component series included in each of the three composite indexes and for the components of some of the aggregate series shown in section B. Diffusion measures can be derived not only from actual data but also from surveys of anticipations or intentions. Indexes based on responses of business executives about their plans and expectations for several operating variables are presented, along with the corresponding indexes based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion series. This section also records rates of change for the three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate economic activity: GNP in constant dollars (quarterly), industrial production, employee hours in nonagricultural establishments, and personal income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for 1-quarter spans. Although movements in diffusion indexes and in rates of change for the same aggregates are generally positively correlated, these two measures present information about two related but distinct aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes measure the prevailing direction or scope of change, while rates of change measure the degree as well as the overall direction. As is the case for diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates of change tend to lead those of the corresponding indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead at the business cycle turns as well. Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES This part is divided mto six sections which cover a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series measuring various aspects of economic activity. Some of these series are very comprehensive, pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others have to do with particular sectors or markets, and still others relate to U.S. international transactions or to selected foreign countries. The represented variables include incomes, outputs, and expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity; labor resources; government receipts, expenditures, and defense-related activities; exports and imports; and selected indicators for a few key foreign countries. Section A. National Income and Product The national income and product accounts, compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and final expenditures for the personal, business, foreign, and government sectors of the economy. Section Al shows the gross national product, final sales, and personal and disposable personal income. The four major components of the gross national product—personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, government purchases of goods and services, and net exports of goods and services—are presented in sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in section A are presented in current as well as constant dollars. There are also a few per capita series. The national income and product accounts, briefly defined below, are described more fully in the Survey of Current Business, Part I, January 1976. Gross national product (GNP) is the market value of final goods and services produced by the labor and property supplied by residents of the United States, before deduction of allowances for the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the most comprehensive measure of aggregate economic output. Final sales is GIMP less change in business inventories. Personal income is the income received by persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions;, private trust funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income, proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income, and transfer payments, less personal contributions for social insurance. Disposable personal income is the personal income available for spending or saving. It consists of personal income less personal taxes and nontax payments to government. Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is goods and services purchased by individuals, operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings, and financial services received in kind by individuals. Net purchases of used goods are also included. 4 Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and capital goods purchased by private business and Unemployment nonprofit institutions and the value of the change This section contains measures of the civilian in the physical volume of inventories held by private business. The former include all private labor force and its major components: Total purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for numbers of employed and unemployed persons. tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used The number of unemployed is subdivided into selected categories defined by sex, age, and class goods are also included. Government purchases of goods and services of worker. Also included are data on participation (A4) is the compensation of government employees rates for a few principal segments of the labor and purchases from business and from abroad. It force. excludes transfer payments, interest paid by Section D. Government Activities government, and subsidies. It includes gross investment by government enterprises but excludes Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surtheir current outlays. It includes net purchases of plus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels; used goods and excludes sales and purchases of (1) Federal Government and (2) State and local land and financial assets. government. Also shown is a selection of series Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports from the discontinued Defense Indicators, less imports of goods and services. Exports are part These series measure defense activities which of the national production; imports are not, but are influence short-term changes in the national included in the components of GNP and are economy. Included are series relating to therefore deducted. More detail on U.S. obligations, contracts, orders, production, international transactions is provided in section E. shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment. National income (A6) is the incomes that These series are grouped according to the time at originate in the production of goods and services which the activities they measure occur in the attributable to labor and property supplied by defense order-production-delivery process. Series residents of the United States. Thus, it measures measuring activities which usually precede prothe factor costs of the goods and services pro- duction, such as contract awards and new orders, duced. It consists of the compensation of are classified as "advance measures of defense employees, proprietors' income, rental income of activity." Series measuring activities which tend to persons, corporate profits, and net interest. coincide with production, such as employment, and Saving (A7) is the difference between income activities which usually follow production, such as and expenditures during an accounting period. shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final Total gross saving includes personal saving, measures of defense activity." business saving (mainly undistributed corporate profits and capital consumption allowances), and Section E. U.S. International Transactions government surplus or deficit. This group includes monthly series on exports Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The major expenditure components of GNP (excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a (consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as few selected components of these aggregates. Also percentages of GNP, and the major income shown are the balances between receipts and components of national income (compensation of expenditures for goods and services, merchandise, employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as and investment income. percentages of national income. Section F. International Comparisons This section is designed to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which we have important trade The important data on price movements include relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has the monthly consumer and producer price indexes been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial and their major components. Based largely on production, consumer prices, and stock prices for these series are the quarterly price indexes from Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Gerthe national income and product accounts, notably many, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corthe GNP implicit price deflator (with weights responding U.S. series. Also included is an inreflecting the changing proportions of different dustrial production index for the European expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixed- countries in the Organization for Economic weighted price index for the gross business prod- Cooperation and Development (OECD). The inuct. Data on both levels and percent changes are dustrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the presented for the period since 1974. The group of series on wages and productivity economies covered. Changes in consumer price inconsists of data on average hourly earnings and dexes (plotted for the period since 1974) provide average hourly compensation (including earnings important measures of the rates of inflation in the and other benefits) in current and constant dollars, major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also output per hour of work in the business sector, and shown beginning in 1974) tend to be significant as leading indicators. rates of change for most of these measures. Section 6. Prices, Wages, and Productivity HOW TO READ CHARTS Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded area) as designated by NBER. Basic Data Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are plotted. ("9" = September) Solid line indicates monthly data. (Data may be actual monthly figures or moving averages.) Dotted line indicates anticipated data. Broken line indicates actual monthly data for series where a moving average is plotted, Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter) Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data. Parallel lines indicates a break in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.). Diffusion Indexes Solid line indicates monthly data over 6- or 9-month spans. Broken line indicates monthly data over 1-month spans. Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual series. "Scale A " is an arithmetic scale, "scale L-1" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles in that distance, etc. Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are used in computing the indexes. Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over 1-quarter spans. Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are used in computing the indexes. Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans. Diffusion indexes and rates of change are centered within the spans they cover. Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER. Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over various spans. Rates of Change Solid line indicates percent changes over 3- or 6-month spans. Arabic number indicates latest month used in computing the changes. Broken line indicates percent changes over 1-month spans. Broken line with plotting points indicates percent changes over 1-quarter spans. Solid line with plotting points indicates percent changes over 3-or 4-quarter spans. Roman number indicates latest quarter used in computing the changes. HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES 1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the series titles, o r 2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of the report where series are listed numerically according to series numbers within each of the report's sections. Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators Basic data8 1 of measure Series title and timing classification Annual average 1983 1984 _ Percent change 1st Q 1985 2<JQ 1985 3d Q 1985 169.7 Sept. 1985 Oct. 1985 Nov. 1985 Sept. to Oct. 1985 Oct. to Nov. 1985 1st Q to 2dQ 1985 2dQ to 3dQ 1985 I 1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS A l . Composite Indexes 910. 920 930 940. 156.0 139.9 111 .7 125.4 165.7 154.5 117.3 131 .8 167 . 2 158.9 124.8 127.3 167.3 159.9 127,0 125.9 160,3 128.2 125.0 108.8 102.8 104.7 130 .7 110.3 105.3 110.8 136.4 110.5 102.7 113.7 109.9 102.0 115.1 135.9 40 . 1 3.0 426 40.7 3.4 366 40.4 3.3 390 L,Lg,U.... Ratio L,Lg,U.... 1967 = 100 0.271 96 0.459 131 0.491 139 U,C,C... A.r., bil. hrs U,C,C... Millions ..do.. CCC L C U Thousands 168.31 97.45 90 . 2 0 23,334 177.62 101.68 94.46 24,730 103.39 96.64 25,077 57.15 58.79 10,717 9.6 3.8 20.0 3.8 CCC... A.r., bil. dol do C,CC... C,C,C... C,C,C... Leading Indicator Subgroups: 914 Capital investment commitments 910 920 170 .6 160.8 129.2 124.5 171 .3 160.7 130 . 7 123.0 171 .5 161 .2 130.4 123.6 0.4 -0.1 1 .2 - 1 .2 0.1 0.3 -0.2 0.5 0.1 0.6 1 .8 - 1 .1 1 .4 0,3 0.9 -0.7 930 940 101 .6 NA 139.1 111.3 101 .6 NA 140.8 109,9 102.3 NA 142.4 109.8 102 . 1 NA 141 .2 - 1 ,3 0.7 NA 1 .1 -0.1 -0.2 NA -0.8 -0.5 -0.7 1.2 - 2 .2 0.8 -0.4 NA 2,4 914 915 916 917 40.3 3.2 387 40.5 3.3 379 40.7 3.3 381 40 . 7 3.3 0. 0. 3.7 0. 367 40.7 3.4 371 0.1 -1.1 -0.2 -0.1 0 .8 0,1 2 .1 1 21 5 0.472 133 0.489 136 0.489 136 0,503 140 0.527 144 0.014 2 .9 0.024 2 .9 -0.019 -4,3 0,017 2 ,3 6C 46 181 .12 1 8 2 . 2 7 103.46 97.34 25,055 183.42 104.13 97.97 24,986 184.32 104.57 98.22 24,962 185.41 104.84 98.57 25,045 185.40 104.92 98.75 25,073 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0. 0.1 0.2 0 .1 0.6 0.1 0.7 48 42 41 -0.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0.3 59.38 59.26 59.33 59.47 59.59 59.57 0 .12 -0.12 0.07 90 8,539 7.5 2 .8 18.2 2.4 8,426 7.3 2 .9 15.7 2.1 8,417 7.3 2.8 15.5 2.0 8,284 7.1 2.7 15.5 2.0 8,274 7.1 2.7 15.5 2.0 8,291 7.1 2.7 15,3 2.0 8,140 7.0 2.7 16.0 1 .9 -0.2 0. 0. 1.3 0. 1.8 0.1 0. -4.6 0.1 0.1 0. 0.1 1 .3 0.1 1 .6 0.2 0.1 0. 0. 37 43 4? 91 44 3275.2 2730.9 3492 .0 2876 .7 3547.8 2937.4 3557.4 2948.0 3584.1 2948.6 0.3 2956 .6 2962.5 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0. 5C 2952.6 do 2305,1 2456.3 2504.5 2515.7 2512 .2 2516.9 2 5 2 1 .6 2527.7 0.2 0.2 0.4 -0.1 51 do 498.5 529.0 537.7 536.2 53 5 . 6 536.7 535.7 534.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 53 109.2 107 .7 113.7 . 1362.0 121 . 8 124.8 122 . 5 1506 . 4 123.8 127.7 123 .6 1530.3 124.2 127 . 9 124.8 1531 .5 124.8 128.6 126.4 1541.0 125.0 128.5 127 . 0 124.6 127.9 127.0 125.1 128.9 127.1 -0.3 -0.5 0. 0.4 0,8 0.1 0.5 0.5 1 .3 0 .6 47 73 7h 49 L.C.U.... Percent do L,C,U.... 74.0 75.3 80 . 8 82 . 3 80.5 81 5 80.3 80 4 0.1 — n ft 82 84 l.,LL... Bil. dol do L,L,L... 87.74 36.96 100.56 102.49 41 . 4 4 41 . 8 9 103.20 41 . 9 2 106,22 43.10 L,L,L... 1967 = 100 do CCC..,. do LgLeXg.... do L,L,L... Twelve leading indicators Four rouehlv coincident indicators ..... Six laeeine indicators Ratio,, coincident index to lagging index L,L,L..., do 9 1 *> I n v e t i t o r v i n v p s t m e n t a n d o u r c h a s i n s L L L do 916 Profitability 917 Money and financial flows L,L,L... LLL... do . . do 138.9 110.8 B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process B l . Employment and Unemployment Marginal Employment Adjustments: * 1 Average weekly hours, mfg 21 Averaeo weeklv overtime hours mfg 5 *5. Average weekly initial claims (inverted') L L L . . . Hours do L.CL.. L,C,L... Thousands Job Vacancies: 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment3 46, Help-wanted advertising in newspapers Comprehensive Employment: 48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments 42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities *41 Employees on nonagricultural payrolls , 40 Emotovecs in &oods-Droducini> Industrie1) 90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working ace3 - U,Lg,U.... Percent Comprehensive Unemployment: 37. Number of persons unemployed (inverted!4) 43. Unemployment rate (inverted') 3 45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate (nv. 4 ) 3 • 9 1 . Average duration of unemployment (inverted1) 44, Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.4)3 L,Lg,U.... L,Lg,U.... L,Lg,U.,.. 1*1*1*... Lg-U-U... Thousands Percent do Weeks Percent -0.02 0.5 4G B2. Production and Income Comprehensive Output and Income: 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars 52 Personal income in 1982 dollars *51. Personal incortus less transfer payments in 1982 dollars 53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, mfg., and construction Industrial Production: •47. Industrial production 73. Industrial production, durable mfrs 74. Industrial production, nondurable mfrs 49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars Capacity Utilization: 82. Capacity utilization rate, mfg3 84. Capacity utilization rate, materials3 CCC... 1977 = 100 C,CC... do C,L,L. ..do... C,CC... A.r., bil, dol , 80 . 4 79 6 80 . 3 79 4 79.8 78 9 106.64 43 . 3 5 104.50 hi.11 -0.3 0.3 0.2 1.0 0 .1 -0.5 -0 5 0.2 0 2 -0.2 105.44 42.62 - 2 .0 -2.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.1 39.16 -2.27 352.22 42 1 .1 -4.96 -0.6 4 0.6 -0.29 -0.6 -4 -1.1 0.17 0.6 -3 80.0 79 1 52 B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries Orders and Deliveries: 6. Mfrs.' new orders, durable goods 7. Mfrs.' new orders in 1972 dollars, durable goods..., •8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1972 dollars, consumer goods and materials.... . 25. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods3 96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods5 •32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries5 © LLL do 34.07 L,L,L.... do 2.69 L,Lg,U.... Bil. dol., EOP ... 3 2 0 . 1 2 L.L.L.... Percent 54 37.33 2.11 345.44 61 37.98 0.55 347.10 47 37.57 0.72 349.25 44 38.50 38.94 38.09 2 .98 - 1 .98 2 .41 356.48 356.48 354.49 43 42 46 Consumption and Trade: 56. Manufacturing and trade sales *57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars 75. Industrial production, consumer goods 54. Sales of retail stores 59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars 55, Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles 58. Index of consumer sentiment © CCC... CCC... C,L,C... C.L.U.... U,L,U.... L,C,C... LLL 368.77 161 . 7 0 109.3 97.86 47,75 87.7 87 5 411 .30 4 1 8 . 9 3 176.08 179.09 118.2 119.2 1 0 8 . 0 8 111 . 6 4 51 . 7 6 53-.05 105 . 0 110 . 9 aA ^ 97 5 424.38 181.11 120.0 114.66 54.29 112 .5 4 2 7 . 3 0 4 2 9 . 0 0 426 . 3 4 NA 182,76 183.7 9 182.14 NA 121 . 1 121.7 121 .7 121.1 116.98 119.54 114.55 115.85 55.33 54.26 56 . 4 7 54.01 126 . 1 114.8 50,162 117.1 52,960 117.7 54,521 115.8 55,776 117.1 NA 117.4 NA 115.3 NA L L L . . . Bil.' dol 26 . 6 8 31 . 3 0 30.95 30.64 32.92 34.52 L,L,L... .. L,L,i .do do 13 . 4 0 22.73 15,44 26.95 15.75 26.78 14,81 26 .34 15.80 27 . 8 2 16.40 29.24 do 11 . 7 2 13.64 14.07 13 .12 13.79 14.32 Bil dol.... do 1977=100 Bil. dol do A.r., bil. dol IQ 1966-100 Q A "\ An 0 2.9 2.8 6 7 g 1 .4 1 .69 2 .1 -1 25 96 32 -0.5 -4.2 -4.4 NA NA 0.5 1.1 0.5 1 .3 1 .1 0.7 2 .7 2.3 1 .4 0.7 0.9 0.9 2.0 1 .9 12.1 56 57 75 54 59 55 116.1 NA - 1 .8 NA 0.7 NA - 1 .6 2 .3 1 .1 NA 12 13 33.10 31 . 6 8 -4.1 -4.3 -1.0 7.4 10 15.72 27.09 15.05 26 . 7 1 -4.1 -7.4 -4.3 -1.4 -6.0 - 1 .6 6.7 5.6 20 24 13.35 13.09 -6.8 - 1 .9 -6.8 5.1 27 ft R -0.6 -0.9 L B4. Fixed Capital Investment Formation of Business Enterprises: *12. Net business formation 13. New business incorporations Business Investment Commitments: 10. Contracts and orders for plarrt and equipment *20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972 dollars 24. Mfrs.' new orders, nondefense capital goods 27. Mfrs.1 new orders in 1972 dollars, nondefense capital goods L,L,L... 1967 = 100 L,(L,t Number L,L,L.... Basic data2 Unit of measure Series title and timing classification' Percent change Annual average 1983 1st Q 1985 1984 2dQ 1985 Sept. to Oct. 1985 Series number 1 Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued 1st Q to 2dQ 1985 2dQ to 3d Q 1985 24.41 95.88 -2.2 -7.9 0.5 12.6 -11 .4 -4.0 4.5 0.3 61 2 .6 0.9 3 .0 -0.1 0.4 0 .6 69 76 -1.3 3 .9 1 .7 -5.6 1 .7 2 1 28 29 89 3dQ 1985 Sept. 1985 Nov. 1985 Oct. 1985 Oct. to Nov. 1985 1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS—Con. 84. Fixed Capital Investment—Con. Business Investment Commitments—Con.: 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space L,C,U.... Mil.sq.ft 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, mfg U,Lg,U.... Bil. dol 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.* C,Lg,Lg,.,. 8il. dol., EOP ... Business Investment Expenditures: 61. Expenditures ior new plant and equipment • 69. Mfrs,' machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures 76. Industrial production, business equipment 86. Presidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars 63.56 22.00 73.50 78.07 29.36 94.37 83 . 6 8 29.94 99.35 81 . 8 7 27 . 5 6 99.88 92.16 93,19 92.00 C,lg,Lg.... A.r., bil.dol 304.78 353 . 5 4 371 .16 387.83 388.90 C,Lg,Lg.... do C,Lg,U.... 1977 = 100 C,Lg,C... A r hit rin! 320.64 115.4 360 . 1 375.00 134.9 430 .3 391 . 5 4 140.2 457 . 2 401.73 141 .5 470 .9 401.42 397 . 7 6 4 0 8 . 6 4 142.1 142.1 141 .1 473 .7 1 ,703 131 . 1 148.7 1,747 134.6 168.3 1,795 132.9 166.7 1,772 138.1 169.6 Residential Constriction Commitments and Investment: 28. New private housing units started *29. Building permits, new private housing units kQ ffociHential fivori inuPttmpnt in 1QR? HnllaK L,L,L... A.r., thousands.. L.L.L... 1967 = 100 1 1 1 A r hit rlnl 1,673 140.5 173.1 92 . 6 1 NA 141 .9 0.7 - 1 .3 2 ,7 -0.7 NA 0.6 9 11 97 36 1,547 132.5 9.0 - 6 .7 -12,2 - 1 .6 -0.7 -16.9 30 - 1 .08 37.4 NA NA 1 .07 28.6 NA NA -6.40 -17.7 -3.96 -6.6 36 31 -0,34 NA -0.23 NA 0.70 0.18 38 578.92 5 7 8 . 9 2 5 82.03 6 3 6 . 1 2 636 . 1 2 6 3 8 . 0 2 88.26 87.58 88.26 NA NA NA 0.5 0,3 -0.8 NA NA NA 0 .2 0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0 .1 - 1 ,8 71 70 65 1,616 144.2 1,761 134.6 -2.16 -3.0 -2.15 8.8 -0.09 -0.11 85. Inventories and Inventory Investment Inventory Investment: 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars3 *36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1972 dollars (smoothed6)3 31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories, book value3 38. Change in mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hard and on order book value3 LtL,L... L,L,L... L,L,L... do -5.5 6'2.7 15.8 15.1 do do 1.98 11.1 21 . 2 9 53.2 8.20 21 .3 1 .80 3.6 1 .45 0.71 -0.97 520.28 5 7 3 . 4 3 583.93 6 3 0 . 2 6 80.96 89.69 578.77 634.00 90.12 L,L,L... Bil.dol Inventories on Hand and on Order: 71. Mfg. and trade inventories, book value*..... Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ... do 70. Mfg. and trade inventories in 1982 dollars5 Lg,Lg,Lg.... do 65. Mfrs.1 inventories, finished goods, book value5 Lg,Lg,Lg.... •77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in 197,? dollars3 Lg,Lg,Lg.... Ratio 78. Mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand 5 and on order, book value ..... L,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ... 1 .59 1 .54 208.73 2 1 7 . 3 0 1 .57 214.40 -0.27 579.66 635 . 7 4 89.87 - 1 .8 1 .56 1 .55 1 .54 1.56 NA 0.02 NA -0.01 -0.01 77 213.61 213.35 213 . 3 5 213.69 NA 0.2 NA -0.4 -0.1 78 0 .22 2 5 0.7 -0.34 -0.36 239.5 -0.45 -0.62 238.0 -0.47 1 .53 236.9 -0.22 -0.24 234.5 -0.08 2.15 -0.5 0,25 - 1 ,77 - 1 .0 0.14 -0.58 -4.5 -0.11 98 23 99 184.80 188.30 184.06 B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits Sensitive Commodity Prices: 98. Change in producer prices, sensitive materials3 23. Spot market prices, raw industrial materials © *99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed6)3 L,L,L... Percent U,L,L... 1967 = 100 L,L,L... Percent..... Stock Prices: *19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (u) L,L,I Profits find Profit Margins: 16. Corporate profits after tax 18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars 79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj BO An in 1982 dollars 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, mfg.3 ?fi Ratio Drice to unit labor cost nonfarm business L,L,L... A.r., bil.dol do L.L.L.... L,C,L... do LC L do L,L,L... Cents..... 1977 — 100 LL L 129.8 60.5 138.6 136 9 4.0 98 0 144.0 68.0 179.6 17 4 3 4.6 99 6 136.6 128.7 198.3 1 90 0 4.2 99 4 136.4 127.6 205.8 196.4 3.7 99 . 6 Cash Flows: 34. Corporate net cash flow 3Ei Coroorate net cash flow in 1982 dollars L,L,L... A.r., bil.dol LL L do 318.9 149 3 367.3 16 9 2 379.9 3 72 6 1941-43=10... Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share: 63. Unit labor cost, business sector Lg,Lg,Lg.... 1977 = 100 fi8. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product, nonfinancial corporations Lg,Lg,Lg..,. Dollars '52. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg. a) Actual data Lg Lg Lg . 1967 = 100 *b) Actual data as percent of trend3 Lg,Lg,Lg.... Percent 64. Compensation of employees as percent of do national income3 Lp LE Lfi 1 .24 258.5 1 .03 -0.37 278.9 -0.19 - 1 .02 253.8 - 0 .77 160.41 160.46 177.30 186 .18 1 9 7 . 4 5 1 .2 1 .24 - 1 .2 0.43 4.2 1 .9 19 141 .1 131 .7 221 .7 211.4 3.7 99.6 -0,1 -0.9 3.8 3 .4 -0.5 0 ,2 3.4 3 .2 7.7 7 .6 0. 0 . 16 18 79 80 15 26 387 , 3 381 0 404.0 3 96 .9 1 .9 2 .3 4.3 4.2 34 35 6.1 156 .0 157 . 6 161 .9 162 . 6 163.2 0.4 0.4 63 0.681 0.689 0.703 0.709 0.709 0.9 0. 68 215.9 95.1 212.4 88.3 216.2 86.7 215.4 85 . 2 214.8 83.7 -0.4 - 1 .5 -0.3 - 1 .5 62 62 0 .3 0 .1 64 0.30 -0.22 -0.30 1 .5 0 .3 0.06 0 .16 0 .33 3.2 2 .0 85 102 104 105 -0.098 -0.001 -0.153 -0.026 107 108 0.56 - 1 3 . 4 6 5.70 -33,02 3.86 -8.27 -0.4 -3.3 8.6 5 .2 33 112 113 HI 110 -0.06 39 74 6 73 i 73 5 73 8 73 .9 214.9 83.4 216.2 83.5 216.0 83 . 0 0,6 0.1 -0.1 -0.5 B7. Money and Credit Money: 85. Change in money supply Ml 3 102 Chance in monev SUODIV M23 104. Change in total liquid assets3 105. Money supply Ml in 1972 dollars *106 Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars Velocity of Money: 107. Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml 3 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M23 Credit 33. 112. 113. •HI. 110 Flows: Net change in mortgage debt3 Net change in business loans1 Net change in consumer installment credit3 Change in business and consumer credit outstanding3 Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers Credit Difficulties: 39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inverted*)35 do L,L,L... do LC.U.... do L,L,L... L,L,L... Bii. dol do L,L,L... 0.78 0.95 0.87 214.0 886 .2 0 .47 0.67 0.93 219.5 917.2 0.80 0.81 0 .76 224.0 952,6 1 .10 0.59 0.46 227 . 3 955 .5 1.16 0.75 0.79 234.5 974.2 0 .99 0.59 0.83 2 3 6.9 979.2 -0.13 0.18 NA 235.9 977 .9 1 .10 0.55 NA 237 .2 977.9 - 1 .12 -0.41 NA -0.4 -0.1 C,C,C... Ratio do C,Lg,C... 6.672 1 .344 6.926 1 .366 6.896 1 .341 6 .798 1 .340 6.645 1.314 1 .309 1 ,313 1.313 0.004 L,L;L... A.r., bil. dol do L,L,L.... do L,L,L... L,L,L... A.r., percent L,L,L... A.r., bil.dol L.L.L.. Percent, EOP ... 64.87 77.85 64.39 99.80 77.29 37.55 -2.17 53 . 6 7 3.53 - 1 2 . 2 2 3.28 30 .85 76.36 90 . 1 5 47.73 94.01 138.37 98.42 15.2 5.7 9.0 8.8 8.4 12 .1 40 3 50 4 8 2 6 7 446 6 9 47 0 0 4 510 56 1 .94 2 .09 2 .40 2.33 2.39 2.39 115.01 74.11 79.54 15.6 NA 1 .23 0 .37 NA 0.6 0 . 0, NA 50.14 71 .02 86 .33 NA - 5 8 . 8 3 6 .6 11 .1 NA -3.09 NA -4.5 NA NA NA 0.07 106 Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued Percent change Basic data' Unit of measure Series title and timing classification1 Annual average 1984 I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con. B7. Money and Credit-Con. Bank Reserves: 93, Free reserves (inverted*) 3 © 94. Borrowings from the Federal Reserve1 © L.U.U.... Mil.dol ...do.. L,Lg,U,... Interest Rotes: 119. Federal funds rate3 © 114. Discount rate on new Treasury b i l l s 3 © 116. YieW on new high-grade corporate bonds3 © 115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds3 © 117. Yield on municipal bonds3 ® 118. Secondary market yields, FHA mortgages3 © 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans 3 © *109. Average prime rate charged by b a r k s 3 © L,Lg,Lg... Percent do... C,Lg,Lg.... do.., Lg,Lg,Lg., do.., C,Lg,lg. do.., U,Lg,lg., do.. Lg,lg,tg.... do.. Lg.Lg.Lg.... do.. Lg,Lg,Lg.... Outstanding Debt: 66. Consumer installment credit outstanding1 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding •101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1972 dollars *95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income3 Lg,Lg,Lg.... til. dol., EOP . Lg,tg,Lg.... Bil. dol Lg.Lg.Lg-- do lg,Lg,Lg.... Percent Sept. 1st Q 1985 2d Q 1985 3dQ 1985 Sept. 1985 Oct. 1985 Nov. 1985 Oct. 1985 Oct. to Nov. 1985 1st Q to 2dQ 3dQ - 5 4 5 -3,046 1,034 3,730 -621 1,426 -472 1,287 -374 1,156 -623 1 ,289 -434 1,187 -814 1,741 -189 -102 3 80 554 -149 -139 -98 -131 9.09 8.62 12 .25 10.84 9.51 13.11 10.64 10 .79 8.48 8.18 12.57 11 .43 9.64 13.24 10.10 10.54 7.92 7.52 11 .88 10.91 9.04 12.38 9.90 10.20 7.90 7.10 11 .52 10.59 9.05 12.05 9.27 9.50 7.92 7.08 11 .66 10 .67 9.27 12 .04 7.99 7.17 11.51 10,56 9.08 11 .87 8.05 7.20 11 .17 10.08 8.54 11 .28 0.07 0.09 0.06 0.03 -0.34 -0.48 -0.54 -0.59 9.50 9.50 9.50 -0.56 -0.66 -0.69 -0.52 -0.60 -0.86 -0.20 -0.34 -0.02 -0.42 -0.36 -0.32 0.01 -0.33 -0.63 -0.70 4.7 1.2 4.7 -0.2 10.22 9.57 13.37 11 .99 10 .10 13.82 12.02 12.04 3 7 6 . 0 1 452.37 4 7 6 . 9 8 499.52 523.02 523 .02 529.65 NA 264.66 299.73 326 .98 330.90 330.40 329.70 335.88 341.80 104.02 115.04 126.00 127.36 128.05 128.39 129.88 131 .46 12.31 13.41 14.45 15.03 15.56 15.80 15.92 10.4 298.4 0 291 303 315.7 323.6 312.3 287.2 284.6 10.8 311 .1 0.3 302.9 310 .3 322.6 331 320.0 294.1 290.4 110.4 317.4 0.3 308.7 309.1 322 .5 316.2 319.3 298.1 290.5 111.3 321 .2 0 .3 308.5 309.4 324.6 305.0 319.3 300.2 292.0 112.1 323.6 0.2 309.2 307.3 323.5 296 .5 317.5 300.8 291 .2 324,5 0 309.9 305 322 293 317.4 299.8 289.7 155.3 162.8 163.8 165,1 165.9 94.9 161 .6 98.3 103.7 103.4 94 168.2 98.1 107.0 106.2 94.6 172.5 98.5 106.9 106.0 94.4 173.9 98.3 107.3 106.3 94.4 175.4 98.6 108 106.9 0. 1 .3 1.9 NA 1 .8 1.2 1 .2 1 .1 NA 0.12 NA 0.58 0.53 325.5 0.3 310.6 308.0 324.4 302 317.7 302.9 292.0 326 .6 0.6 312 309 325.0 311 .2 318.6 303 294.9 0 0 0 0 0.6 3 .1 0.1 1.0 0.8 0 0 0.7 0,6 0,2 2.9 0 0.1 1,0 0.8 1 0 -0 0 0 -3 0 0 0.5 0 0 -0.1 0.2 -0,7 -0 -2 -0.6 0 -0 166.7 166.4 166.9 -0.2 0.3 0.8 94.7 94,3 94.0 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.8 -0.2 0.4 0 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.6 0.2 0 -6.4 14.1 -1 .4 -0.1 0.1 -1,8 -0.1 0 -9.2 0.4 0 0 -0.1 0.4 1 .2 -4.1 -1.7 0 0.4 -1 .6 -3.0 -0.2 -0.9 0 0 . 0.1 0.8 0. -0.1 -0.5 -0.1 0 . -1.3 -0.1 0. 0. -46 -4.4 1 .2 -5 9 1 .7 3.1 7.8 4.7 2.9 -0.4 2 .1 2.4 22.3 -5.3 18.8 2.6 1.8 2.6 NA 18.5 7.0 2.3 2 .1 5.4 -5.5 -16.3 -3 2.4 33.5 0.6 -0.1 -4.1 -5.9 -2.2 -29.2 6.4 II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES Id. Prices, Wages, and Productivity Bl. Price Movement; 310. 320. 320c. 322. 330. 335. 331. 332. 333. 334. 1982=100. Implicit price deflator for gross national product Consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) © . . . 1967=100... Percent. .. Change in CPI-U (S/A) 3 1967 = 100... Consumer price index for all urban consumers, food do. . Producer price index (PPI), all commodities © ...do.. PPI, industrial commodities © ...do PPI, crude materials for further processing .do. .. PPI, intermediate materials, supplies, and components .do. PPI, capital equipment do PPI, finished consumer goods B2. Wages and Productivity 340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls; 341. Real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls 345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector 346. Real average hourly compensation, nonfarm bus ness sector 370. Output per hour, business sector 358. Output per hour, nonfarm business sector , 1977 = 100... do do ....do ....do ..do.. C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment 441. 442. 37. 444. 445. 446. 447. Civilian labor force Civilian employment Number of persons unemployed Number unemployed, males 20 years and over Number unemployed, females 20 years and over Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age Number unemployed, full-time workers Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates: 451. Males 20 years and over3 452. Females 20 years and over3 453. Both sexes 16-19 yeiirs of age3 , Millions... ....do Thousands... ...do ..do ..do Percent ....do... 111.55 113.54 115.16 1 1 5 . 1 8 115.48 115.82 116.16 116,07 100.83 105 .00 106.73 106.76 107,19 107 .54 107.87 107.93 8,539 10,717 8,426 8,417 8,284 8,274 8,291 8,140 3,932 3 , 7 6 8 5,257 3,7 83 3,668 3,637 3,663 3,659 3,107 3,632 3,155 3,192 3,187 3,244 3 , 0 3 8 3,037 1 ,499 1,503 1,590 1,829 1,442 1,429 1,394 1,444 7,057 6,913 9,075 6,797 6,799 6,789 6,692 6 ,717 78.5 53.1 53.5 78.3 53.7 53.9 78.2 54.6 55.6 78.1 54.6 54.3 78.0 54.6 54.3 78.1 54.8 54.0 7 8.1 54.9 54.8 78.1 54.8 54.3 D. Government Activities Dl. Receipts and Expenditures 500. 501. 502. 510. 511. 512. Federal Government surplus or deficit3 Federal Government receipts Federal Government expenditures State and local government surplus or deficit9... State and local government receipts State and local government expenditures A.r.,bil.doL ....do.. . do. . .do. ,. ..do. ... ..do.. •179.4 - 1 7 2 . 9 - 1 6 2 . 6 658.1 789.7 725.1 837 .5 952.4 898.0 63.2 48.6 64.4 560.5 487.7 539.8 497.2 43 9.1 4 7 5 . 4 Mil.dol 20,635 22,437 21,072 25,769 NA NA 10,787 12,942 12,099 11,458 1 3 , 5 8 3 11 ,385 6,773 7,452 7,336 9,323 8,714 8,106 143.1 157 .9 167.2 171 .6 1 7 5 . 6 177.5 1 ,359 1 ,444 1 ,522 1,550 1,582 1 ,586 215.7 237.0 256 ,0 2 6 9 , 9 249.5 -209.1 -201 .3 754.9 790.7 964.0 992.0 57 .3 56.9 570.0 581 .8 512.7 524.9 D2. Defense Indicators 517. 525. 548. 557. 570. 564. Defense Department gross obligations incurred Defense Department prime contract awards Mfrs.' new orders, defense products Industrial production, defense and space equipment Employment, defense products industries Federal Government purchases for national defense ....do... 1977 = 100... Thousands A.r., bil. dol... NA NA 6 ,179 178*7 1,595 NA NA 7,2 40 181 .5 1,601 NA NA -23,8 0.7 0.6 16,722 18,137 18,567 17,544 17,522 17,732 17,368 3,011 2,294 2,200 3,146 2,741 2,053 2,325 3,998 3,763 3,536 3,875 4,126 3,694 3,777 2 1 , 5 1 3 27 ,132 28,137 28,802 28,159 31 ,764 27,594 4,689 4,340 3,750 5,005 3,545 3,811 4,041 3,787 4,425 2,937 4,452 4,735 4,198 5,555 NA NA NA NA NA NA -2.1 13.2 -2 .2 -13.1 -5.7 -24.4 NA NA 17.2 1 .6 0.4 E. U.S. International Transactions El. Merchandise Trade 602. 604. 606. 612. 614. 616. Exports, excluding military aid shipments Exports of domestic agricultural products Exports of nonelectrical machinery General imports Imports of petroleum and petroleum products Imports of automobiles and parts Mil. dot.... ...do... ...do... Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued Basic data' Unit of measure Series title Percent change Annual average 1982 1983 1984 2d Q 1984' 3dQ 1984 4th Q 1984 1st Q 2dQ 1985 3dQ 1985 4th Q to 1st Q 1985 lstQ to 20 Q 1985 2dQ 3dQ 1985 II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Con. E2. Goods and Services Movements Except Transfers Under Military Grants 667. 668. 669. 622. 618. 620. 651. 652. Balance on goods and services3 Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Balance on merchandise trade3 Merchandise exports, adjusted • Merchandise imports, adjusted Income on U.S. investment abroad Income on foreign investment in the United States Bil. dol ...do... ..do.., ..do... ..do... ; : 0.02 - 7 . 9 8 - 2 3 . 9 9 -26.24 - 2 6 . 0 9 -27 .71 -21 .08 -24.27 -26.48 87 .51 83.40 90.51 $.87 91 .24 91 .43 8 8 . 5 3 89.39 90.14 87 *49 91 .38 114.49 115.11 117.34 119.14 109.61 113.66 116 .62 - 9 . 1 1 - 1 6 . 8 0 - 2 8 . 5 3 -29.62 - 2 8 . 9 8 -30 .88 - 2 3 . 4 5 -28.59 -33 .14 52.80 50.43 5 4 . 9 8 54.56 5 5 . 6 5 56 .24 55.30 53.62 52.31 61 .91 67.23 83.51 84.18 84.63 87.13 78.76 82.21 85.45 21 .19 19.51 21 .90 20.90 2 1 . 7 7 21 .44 18.87 22.28 24.04 13.82 13.16 17.12 17 .28 18.51 16.33 16.89 16.49 17.44 6.63 -3.2 -8.0 7.43 -1 .7 -9.6 -12.0 -6.4 -3.19 1 .0 3 .7 -5.14 -3.0 4.4 18.1 3.4 -2 .21 0.8 2.6 -4.55 -2.4 3.9 7.9 -2.4 667 668 669 622 618 620 651 652 A. National Income and Product Al. GNP and Personal Income 200. 50. 217. 213. 224. 225. 227. 3166.0 3166.0 13,625 3190.5 2261 .4 2261 .5 9,732 3401 .6 3275.2 13,961 3280 .6 2425.4 2334.6 9,952 3774.7 3492.0 14,751 3429.3 2670.2 2 46 8.4 10,427 3757.5 3492.6 14,773 3426.6 2649.9 2 461.8 10,413 3812 .2 3510.4 14,812 3445.5 2696.7 2480.5 10,466 3852.5 3515.6 14,797 3479.5 2723 .8 2484.4 10,457 3917.5 3547.8 14,903 3532.0 2739.2 2482 .7 10,429 3960.6 3557 .4 14,916 3542.3 2817.7 2532.2 10,617 4016 .9 3584.1 14,988 3585.8 2800,2 2503.1 10,468 1 .7 0.9 0.7 1.5 0.6 -0.1 -0.3 2.9 2 .( 1 .) .do., ..do.. .do. ..do. 2050 2050 252 252 771 771 1027 .0 1027.0 2229.3 2145.9 289.6 283.6 817.0 800 .7 112 2.7 1061 .7 2423.0 2239.9 331 .1 318.6 872.4 828.0 1219.6 1093.3 2414.4 2243 .0 330.2 317.7 873 .2 832.8 1211 .1 1092.6 2439.0 2243.4 331 .1 318.0 876 .6 831 ,2 1231 .3 1094.3 2480 . 2262, 341 , 327 , 883 828, 1255, 1105, 2525,0 2563 .3 2303 .5 356 .5 351 335 340.3 895 910.2 839.9 846 .7 1277.8 1296 .6 1116 .5 2606 .1 2329.6 376.0 359.3 914.5 849.8 1315.6 112 0.4 1 .8 1 .2 2 .9 2.3 1.4 1 .4 1 .8 0.7 ...do.. ..do.. ...do.. ...do.. ...do.. ...do.. 447.3 447 .3 471.8 471.8 -24.5 -24.5 501 .9 503.4 508.3 508.9 -6.4 -5.5 674.0 661 .3 607.0 598.6 67.1 62.7 673.3 662.9 604.5 596.8 68.9 66.0 687.9 673.3 619.5 608.4 68.3 64.9 676 .2 659.9 637.2 623.8 39.0 36.1 657.6 639.6 639.1 623 .8 18.5 15.8 672.8 655.6 657 .3 640.5 15.5 15.1 666 .1 645.0 665.9 646 .8 0.2 -1 .8 .do. do do . ..do. .do. . do 641 .7 641.7 272.7 272.7 369.0 369.0 675.7 647.8 284.8 275.5 390.9 372.2 736.8 675.9 312.9 292.5 423.9 383.3 735.1 677 .1 314,8 294.8 420.3 382.4 747.3 682 .4 318.5 296 .7 428.8 385.7 768.4 693 .9 332.9 307.3 43 5.5 386 .6 777 .2 691 .4 334.4 304.3 442.8 387.1 794.8 699.4 337.8 305.9 457.1 393.6 26.3 26.3 361.9 361 .9 335.6 335.6 -5.3 -21.9 354.1 349.3 359.4 371.2 -59.2 -85.0 384.6 370.9 443 .8 455.9 -65 .3 -90.4 382.3 366.6 447 .6 457 .0 -61 .9 - 7 2 . 2 -88.7 •100 391 .4 389, 376 .9 377.3 453 .3 461 .7 46 5.6 477.5 A.r., Gross national product Gross national product in 1982 dollars A.r, Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars A.r., Final sales in 1982 dollars Disposable personal income .. . . Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars . A.r., Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars bil.dol .do dollars.. bil. dol .do. .. dollars.. 1 .4 0.8 0.5 1 .2 -0.6 -1.1 -1.4 200 50 217 213 224 225 227 0 .7 1 .4 1 .6 1 .6 0 1 .5 0 .3 5.5 5.6 0.5 0.4 1 .5 0.3 230 231 232 233 236 238 237 239 -2 .8 -3 .1 0.3 0 -20 -20.3 2 .3 2 .5 2 .8 2.7 -3 .0 -0.7 -1 .0 -1 .6 1.3 1 .0 -15.3 -16.9 240 241 242 243 245 30 832.5 729.2 364.8 331 .1 46 7.7 398.1 1 .1 -0,4 0 -1 0 1 .7 0.1 2 .3 1 .2 1 .0 0.5 3 .2 1 .7 4.7 4.3 8.0 8.2 2.3 1 .1 260 261 262 263 266 267 -87.8 -42.3 -70.3 -71 .8 -101 .1 -119.8 363.2 379.6 369.2 353.5 368.7 358.2 451 .0 421 .9 43 9.5 473.3 440.5 459.3 29.9 28.4 -2.5 -2.3 -8.6 -7.7 -17.5 -18.7 -1 .6 -1 .3 2.6 3.0 250 255 252 256 253 257 1 .1 1 .2 A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures 230. 231. 232. 233. 236. 238. 237. 239. Total Total in 1982 dollars Durable goods... Durable goods in 1982 dollars... Nondurable goods Nondurable goods in 1982 dollars.. Services Services in 1982 dollars A.r., bil. dol., .do. ...do.., A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment 240. 241. 242. 243. 245. 30. Total Total in 1982 dollars Fixed investment '. Fixed investment in 1982 dollars Change in business inventories3 Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars 3 .. A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services 260. Total 261. Total in 1982 dollars 262. 263. 266. 267. Federal Government Federal Government in 1982 dollars State and local government State and local government in 1982 dollars; 250. 255. 252. 256. 253. 257. Net exports of goods and services3 Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars3 Exports of goods and services... Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars Imports of goods and services Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars A5. Foreign Trade ..do.. ..do.. ...do... -28 -29.3 -2.7 -2 4.2 4.3 A6. National Income and Its Components 220. 280. 282. 284. 286. 288. National income Compensation of employees Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj Rental income of persons with CCAdj . . . . . . Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj Net interest 290. 295. 292. 298. 293. Gross saving Business saying Personal saving Government surplus or deficit 3 ., Personal saving rate3 .do. .do. .do.. ..do., .do. 2518.4 2718.3 3039.3 3021 .1 3064.2 3104.4 3155.3 3192 .2 3228.0 1 9 0 7 . 0 2025 .9 2221 .3 2204.8 2241.2 2 2 7 8 . 5 2320.4 2356 .9 2385.2 237.5 239.4 240.9 232.9 232.3 233.7 175.5 192 229.1 14.5 11 .0 9 10 .0 13.8 10 .8 11.9 13.6 12 309.1 288.1 150.0 213.8 273.3 277 .8 271 .2 2 7 6 . 2 281 272.3 273.6 300.2 297 ,6 309.5 3 0 7 . 0 302.9 292.4 281 .8 1 .6 1 .8 2.8 13 .4 2 .0 -1 .3 1 .2 1 .6 0 .6 25.5 2.3 -3 .5 -1 4 5.1 7.3 -3 6 220 280 282 284 286 288 0.8 2.0 -20.4 27 .4 -1.2 -1 .1 1 .8 27 .7 -52.5 1 .1 -6.0 4 -38 7 .4 -2.2 290 295 292 298 293 A7. Saving ...do... ..do.., ....do.. ....do.. Percent 446 .4 46 9 . 8 584.5 403.2 467.4 520.5 153.9 133.2 172.5 •110.8 -130 .8 -108.5 6 .8 6.5 5.5 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ©, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" at the back of this issue. NA, not available, a, anticipated. EOP, end of period. A.r., annual rate. S/A, seasonally adjusted {used for special emphasis). IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. 1 The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns: L, leading; C, roughly coincident; Lg, lagging; U; unclassified. 581.3 592.8 573.5 516.0 527 .4 535.9 162.6 181 .5 164.5 - 9 7 . 3 -116.0 -126.8 6.0 6 .1 6 .7 571 .7 537.3 578.3 546 .8 556 .4 579.2 130.9 167.2 102 .6 -99.4 -151 .9 -144.5 4.8 5.9 3.7 ? For a few series, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual figures published by the source agencies are used if available. 3 Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series. 4 Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed. s End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period. 6 This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed on the terminal month of the span. CYCLICAL INDICATORS COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Chart A l . Composite Indexes Nov. Oct. P T July IVtay P I ..... Aug. Apr. P T Apr. Feb, PT Jan. July July Nov. P T P T Nov. Mar. P T Dec. Nov. P T fidex: 1967-1001 180- jw T^fiil *£ 910. Index of twelve leading indicators (serjes 1,5, 8,12,19,20,29.32.136.99.106. I l l ) S Zr^S 7 V SK 170160150140130120- \ . Index of four roughly coincident indicators (series 4 47; 51, 57) 1j r ¥!! \ / 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 841985 NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of feads (-) and lags ( + ) In months from reference turning dates. Current data for these series are shown on page 60. 10 DECEMBER 1985 CYCLICAL INDICATORS A I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A l . Composite Indexes—Continued Jan. July July Nov. P T P T I Index: 196^1001 Capital investment commitments (series 12, 20,29) investment and purchasing (series ?> 3f, 36,99) t U 940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging todex - i ^ 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 841985 NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates. Current data for these series are shown on page 60. ItCII DECEMBER 1985 11 CYCLICAL INDICATORS A ^_ COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued I Chart A2. Leading Index Components Nov. Oct. P T Ji ly May l> T Aug. Apr. P. T Apr. Feb. P T Dec. Nov. PI Mar. T Jan. July July P T P Hm. T 1. Avera^ weekly N j s of protection of mmsupervisory workek manufacturing (hours) State programs (thousands—inverted scale) fj~Q~[ I! 8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1972 dollars, consumer goods 2nd materials! Industries (bjl. dol.) r f f [ 32, Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (percent) 12, Net business formation (index: 1967-100) 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in I 197? doBars H i t doU i 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 53 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 841985 Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 1 , 34, 65, and 66. 12 DECEMBER 1985 KCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued July May P T Aug. Apr. P T Apr. Feb P T Dec. Nov. P T Nov. P Mar. T Jan. July July P T P Nov. T 36, Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1972 dollars, smoothed1 (ann. rate, bil. do).) 60 J 99. Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed1 (percent 19. Stdck prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10) L 106, Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.) 111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding (ann. rate, percent) jL,L,L ^*S^S ^/\^ "K/^ w 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 6 71 72 7S 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 841985 'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 68, 69, 7 1 , and 72. ItCII DECEMBER 1985 13 CYCUCAL INDICATORS A I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A3. Coincident Index Components Jan. July July Nov. P T P T 41. Employees on nonagricuitural payrolls | W 51. Personal income less transfer p a p m t s in 1982doflars (ann. rate, bil. dd.) cXc 47. Industrial production (index: 1977-100) 57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 doHars (1)1. dol.) J fill jijifl iT k PJ j\y 1/ltUl 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 53 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 841985 Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 63, and 65. 14 DECEMBER 1985 CYCLICAL INDICATORS COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A4. Lagging Index Components Nov. Get P T July May P T Aug. Apr. P T Apr. Feb. P T 91/ Dec. Nov. P T Nov. Mar. P T duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale) Jan. July July Nov. P T P T ! Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in § 7 2 dollars (ratio) V A . / ^ i V» Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing—actual data as jiercent of trend (percent) . Average prime rate charged by bank^j {percent) and industrial loans outstanding dof.) 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 97 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 83 841985 Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 70, and 73. BCII DECEMBER 1985 15 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment Apr. Feb. Dec. Nov. Nov. Mar. P T P T P T Jan. July P T July P Nev T [Marginal Employ men! Adjustments | 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours) 21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hoiirs) | L , C , I 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (thousands—inverted scale) F r J J l 46. Heto-wanted advertising in newspapers I (index: 1967 ~ 100) L,Lg,U 1 1959 60 61 62 63 64 6S L \ (16 67 68 69 70 fin r y 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 6 1 . 16 DECEMBER 1985 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued Apr, P Feb. T Dec. P Nov. T Nov. P Mar. T Jan.July P T July P Nov. T 190- | Comprehensive Employment [ 180- 170: 48. ; . • •• i i • • • •. i : • • • • • - • • . ; • • • • • • : { . . . ' ' ! ! v i • • • : Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments (ann, rajte> jbili hours) 160- 150- 140- 42. Persons engaged in rionagrieultural actiiirties jmillions) tea* ''' 41. | ^ ! o | e e s on nonagriculiural payrolls (millions) 40, Employees oni nonagricuftural payroilsj|gOoa^producing industries (rrfllions) |! I! 6059- SO. Ratio, civilian em^pyment to population of||»orkirjg age (percent) \ f* 58- / 57- M /^? 1959 60 5655- JL,JWV 61 62 54- 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 1 and 62. KCII DECEMBER 1985 17 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued Apr. Feb. Dec. Nov. Nov. Mar. P T P T P T Jan. July F T July Nov. P T """""* in [Comprehensive Unemployment | 37. Number of persons unemptoyed (millions—inverted scale) 43. Unemployment rate (percent—inverted scale) \ \ 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (percent—inverted scale) \ / \ : 91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale) k /*_ \ ^ 44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent—inverted scale) \ 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 6»6 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 / 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 62. 18 DECEMBER 1985 BCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B2. Production and Income Ian. July P T July P Hoy. T I Comprehensive Output and Income 50. Gross: national productfy1?82 dollars, Q (ann. jiate, fjjf. dol) 52. Personal ijicom* in 1982 dollars ( 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars (ann. rate, bil. dol.) ; 1200 -J 53. Wages and salaries fn 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing, j , and construction! ( m . rate, bil. dol.) 600-1 550 500450- 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 63. BCII DECEMBER 1985 19 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL, INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B2. Production and Income—Continued Apr. Feb. P T Jan, Joly P I July Nov. P T [TrKfc^trial Production 47. Industrial production (index: 1977 CXX 73. Industrial production, durable manufactures (index: 1977—100) 74. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures (index;'1977*= 100) ! IX 49. Value of goods output in (ann. rate, bil. dot.) OCX Gttjjcity Utilization 82. Capacity utilization rate, 84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (percent) 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 (36 67 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 64. 20 DECEMBER 1985 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries Apr. Feb. P T Dec. Wov. P T Nov. P Jan. July P T Mar. T July P Wov. T I Orders and Deliveries | 6. Manufacturers' new orders inicurrent dollars, durable goods industries (biLdol.) \r v 7. Manufacturers' new nrrters in 197? rinllars. rinrahte goods industries (bil. dol.) 8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1972 dollars, consumer goods and materials indu$triesm(bi1. doll) LIT 25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, industries (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.~4-term) LLL 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (bil. dol.) 32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (percent) 100- A 755025- 1959 60 61 62 63 64 @5 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 aa 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 64. DECEMBER 1985 21 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued Jan. July P T July P Nov. T mption and Trade 56. Manufacturing and tratte sales in current dollars : (HidoL)i 59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars (ttl M.) 1959 60 61 ©2 63 64 65 6B 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 /uL/l/Ul 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 65. 22 DECEMBER 1985 RCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment Apr. Feb. P T Dec. Nov. P T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T 160140- [Formation ;of Business Enterprises Net business formation (index 1201006050403040353025- Contracts and orders for 20- [Bustess Investment Commitments | 15- 10- 20. Contracts and ordersforplant and equipment : in 1972 dollars ( b l dol.) 35302520- 24. Manufacturers'new ; capital goods Indus 15- 10- Manufacturers* new orders in 1972 dollars, no capftal gpflds industries (bill dol,) ! ! ' ' • • ' • " 5-* llO-i 10090807060- ^;Construction; contracts awarded for Commercial and i hiiilffina^ ^mil <:n ft nf ftnnr <:narp-Mfin mnuina 50- 40- 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66. ItCII DECEMBER 1985 23 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued Jan. July Apr. Fab. P F T T Jyly P Urn. T 120-i 110100 908070- l%iless Investment Commitments—Con, 1 ; 60- 97. Backlog of capita! 50403530- 25- 20- 15- 11, Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporation, Q (biL dol.) 61. Expenditures for n«w plant and equipment by U.S nonfarm b u s i n g Q : ( m j r a t e t ^ ss Investment Expenditures 68. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (am-$te r bl. doi.) business equipment L/UUL 1959 60 61 62 63 64 6!> 66 67 68 69 70 -'.;;;•.'N,r-..',..L':...'i.-Ji.itnJijlj 71 72 73 74 • J J 1 . L- 75 76 •.. 77 - J i . r •. ; 78 79 80 ui.jLjin.A 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67. 24 DECEMBER 1985 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued Apr Feb. P T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T I Business Investment Expenditures—Con. | Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars (ann. rate, 86. Total, Q C.Le.C 88. Producers' durable etnjioment, 0 87. Structures, Q [Lg, 80 - 1 Residential! Construction Commitments and Investment || I P units started (ami, rate, mifons) 29. New private housing units authorized 1959 60 61 62 63 64 69 66 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 67. KCII DECEMBER 1985 25 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment Nov. P Dec. Nov. P T Apr. Fab. P T , Inventory Investment] Jan July P T Mar. T July P Nov. T 30. Change in busine^ inventories in 1982 dotim, j (ann, rate,foii.dol.) 36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and onorder in 1972 dollars (ann. rate, bil> dot.; movirt| j t f . - 4 - t e r m 1 ) tk XAtfU 31. Change in manufacturing and trade inv^ories, book M i £ (ann. rate, bil. dol.; MCD moving avg,*4-term) UX 38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, matef^s and supplies on hanc and on order, booh value (bit. dol.; MCD moving avg.-4-term) lAJ; 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 ! ulJUlJLll 81 82 • . . . 83 84 85 1986 'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. Current data for these series are shown on page 68. 26 DECEMBER 1985 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued Jan. July P July Nov. T P T 80 81 7Qi; Mantifacturpi and trade inventoilei 711 Manufacturing a : book vaM ( k doi.) 65. Manufacturers' i I book value (fail, d f e lg,Lg,Ll 77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1972 dollars Manufacture^ inventories, materials and d ^ d j bootcivalue b t i l <biL <bL doL) dL) jF 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 32 83 84 85 1936 Current data for these series are shown on page 68. ItCII DECEMBER 1985 27 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits Apr. Feb. Dee. Nov. P T P T 98 [Sensitive Commodity Prices! fi ' - Mar. MQV. P Jan. July T P T July Nov. P T Chan e in * ^ { m W'K*S for 28 sensitive c r t d e and intermediatem$m®$ (percent;MCDimvmgavg.—6-term) 99. Change in sensitive materials prices (percent; moving avg.M-terml)|j|m 19, Stock prices, 500 common stojfe (index: | Profits and Profit Margins rn fporaU profits after Ur in 19f? fHl?ft 16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars, Q (arm. rate, biLdol.) ilrrr-] ii 1959 @O 61 62 63 64 ©5 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 83 84 85 1986 l This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. beginning with data for June 1 9 8 1 , this is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Current data for these series are shown on page 69. 28 DECEMBER 1985 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued Jan J u l y P T July Nov. P T Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj in 198? dofters, Q (ann. rate, M . d o l l and; Profit Margins—Con. 79, Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj in current dollars, Q (arm. rate, bil. dot.) '' IcI 22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits afdr tax to corporate 81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj to corporate domestic! income, Q (percent) V / ! \ >!' 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, man 26. Ratio, implicit {price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm hnsiness sector. 0 finrtex: 1977i=10Q> 35. Corporate net cash flow; in 1 (ann. rate. bil. doi) U 34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars, Q (aW rije, bil. dol.) r j j [ 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 7@ 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70. ItCII DECEMBER 1985 29 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued Jan. July P T July P Nov. T .abo^iCo$t$ andlLabor Share! 63. Unit labor cost, business sector, Q (index; 1077-100) 68. Labor cost in curr ertf dollars per unit of gross (Jomestic product in 1982 dollars, nonfirtancial corporations 1 62> Labor cost per unit of output; manufacturing (index 64. Compensation of employees as a Q (percent) ; =17*1 . J I i l J L f u L f - • • J'. •'•• ''...I-'. !, ". 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 i ' ' !- ; ! ' : 1 . 78 79 u'U 1 , 80 LfJL'UL/L 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series fire shown on page 70. 30 DECEMBER 1985 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit Apr. Feb. P T i. July P T July P Nov. T 85. Change in moriejTsupply MJl i i; •. (percent; MCDj mowjng av£—6--term)h^L 102. Change in money supply M2 ( ; (percent; MCO moving avg.—6-term) ; 104.1 Charge in total liquid a^ats (percent; M#> rnqtog avg.—6-term) m w^ +1.2- K : *:: rP< 'fi T . VF;l;j.;Ji! +0.8- +0.4 0.0-1 105. Money supply M l in 1972 dollars (bB. do).) 250-| 230 107. Ratio, gross national product to money Supply M l , Velocity off Monjey | 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (ratio) 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 7 1 . KCII DECEMBER 1985 31 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued Jan. July P T July P Nov. T 80 81 82 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by and life insurance companies (ana rate, fail, dol) 112- Net change in business loans (ann. rate, bil. do!,; ; MCD moving ayg.—(|tain) 113. 111. 61 62 63 64 Net change in consumer installment credit (ann. rate, bijl dot; MCD moving avgJM>*t|mi) ; Change in business and c m m e r credit outstanding ( n j l t rate, percent) 110. 1959 60 |]7Tp 65 ll,l,L Funds raised by prWate nonfinancial borrowers markets, Q (am. jja^blLdol.) i1, ', ; 56 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72. 32 DECEMBER 1985 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued Jan. July P T H ft r i p Current liabilities of' IV i! inverted scale: MCC iivwtedscale;MCK July P Nov. T 81 82 83 mess faigres (mi. dot avgi—Merm) wfw m m ' 1 imm 39. Percent of consumer instalment loans delinquent 3 | dayji and Over (percent—inverted scale! 93. Free reserves (biL doL—inverted Kale) [ 94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve (bil. do].) !•• ^ 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 U : - I I ; : : r n r ^ - j j j p " :;:•-• . ^ • - • . n . 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 "i 76 :: . , 77 78 79 80 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 72. ItCII DECEMBER 1985 33 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued Jan. July P T Apr. Feb. P T July P Nov. T 81 82 funds rate (percent) 114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day jreasufjy bills (percent) |C,Lg,Lg Yield on new issues of hieti-erade corporate bonds Id on long-term Treasury bonds (percent) C.Lgl market yields on FHA mortgages (percent) U7. Yield on municipal :. ;• . . J U U 1959 60 L • 61 • . . . 62 • 63 • . 64 : . .. 65 '. 6(3 . 67 • • . : 68 . ' J i i i . i l . 69 . . : • • • 70 71 average (percent) . 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73. 34 DECEMBER 1985 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued Apr. Feb. P T Jan.Juty P T Dec. Nov. P T July P Nov. T 81 82 66. Consumer installment credit 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 83 84 Current data for these series are shown on page 73. DECEMBER 1985 35 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Chart C l . Diffusion ndexes Apr. Feb. P T Nov. P Dec. Nov. P T Jan. July P T Mar. T 950. Twelve leading indicator components f July P Nov. T 1-mo, s p a n - — ) 100- 50- o951. Four roughly coincident indicator component^ (6-rtio. span , 1-mo. s p a n — ) iiiif i ! j i{ |{ s t; :« 11\ ; i i 'I )w" if '•: JLl 100- 50- i Six lagging indicator components (6-mo. spafl—4 1-mo. s p a n — ) 952. 50- oJ 961. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervtsory workers, 20 manufacturing industries (9-mo. span , 1-mo. span-l 100-1 50- 962. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, 51 areas (percent declining; 9-mo. ^patu—, 1-mo. s p a n - 4 ) 100- 50- 0- 963. Employees on private nonagricultural payroifs, 172-186 industries (6-mo, span-*-., l-rik>. $ p a n - - 0 100- 50- 0- X959 60 61 62 63 64 69 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 74. 36 DECEMBER 1985 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued Apr. Feb. P T Nov. P Dec. Nov. P T 964. Mar. T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T I Percent rising [ Manufacturers' new orders, 34-35 durably goods industries (9-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. span - - -) !i 100- 50- 0- Newly approved capital appropriations in ly'iz dollars, 1 / manufacturing industries (4-Q moving a v g , ^ » ( 1-Q s p a r w ) 9070- iy^Mk.v A .-, fw ' T rrm' 966. * v 5030 J Industrial production, 24 industries (6-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. span.--) 1001 50- 967. 0- Spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials (9-mo. span-—, 1-mo. span---) : 100- 50- 968. 960. 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 Stock prices, 500 common stocks, 45-82 industries (9-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. span---) Net profits, manufacturing, about 600 companies1 (4-Q span) 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 32 83 84 85 1986 s a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Oun & Bradstreet, Inc. Current data for these series are shown on page 75. DECEMBER 1985 37 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued Jan. July P T Mar. T July Nov. P T ( l ii ' i! Jan. July P T 'fetal July P Nov. T *—* Anticipated • • . 970, Expenditures for new plant afitf equipment, 21 industries (1-Q span) i 971. New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span) 972. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span) 973. Net sales, manufactbing and tr$* (4~Q span) 1974 75 l 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 1974 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 ThIs is a copyrighted series used by permission; it mjiy not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives. Current data for these series are shown on page 76. 38 DECEMBER 1985 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart C3. Rates of Change Jan. July P T July P Nov. T 1-wntfi spans - - J U 3^montJi span* [Percent change at annual rate 910c. Composite trildlex of tiet* 920c. | Composite index pf four fotitjly coincident indicator* 330c, Composite index of jsix %gtng indicators j 47c. Index of industrial production 50c.) Gros^ national product m 1982 dollars (1-Q span) L/U JUlJl 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series were published. ItCII DECEMBER 1985 39 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Chart A l . GNP and Personal Income Jan. July P T Apr. Feb. P T 223. July P Nov. T Personal income in current (am. rate, b i cW.) personal income in 1982 Q (arm. rate, bit. do!.) ana rate, tnous. ow.) .I. 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 .• 71 <• 72 m 73 :: ' 74 75 76 : 77 ( ! 78 79 « . - • • 80 81 82 • 83 84 ... 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80. 40 DECEMBER 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES IA I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures Jan July P T Apr. Feb. P T July P Nov. T Personal consumption expenditures— 1 Annual rate, babndojars (1982)1 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on pages 80 and 8 1 . BCD DECEMBER 1985 41 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment Jan July P T Apr. Feb. P T July P Nov. T 81 82 Gross private domestic investment 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 8 1 . 42 DECEMBER 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services Jan. July P T Apr. Feb. P T July P Nov. T Annual rate, billion dollars (current) | purchases of goods and services— Annual rate, b f a i dollars (1982)1 , 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 . <' i , LOJUU'- 68 69 70 -J' 71 ,U 72 JUJUULJ " i 73 74 75 ' _> 76 77 ', 78 79 80 81 32 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 81. RCII DECEMBER 1985 43 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES I A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A5. Foreign Trade Jan. July P T Apr. Feb. P T July Nov. P T 2531 Imports of goods and service^!} 256. M i l of goods and uticesijQ i f $ . Net exports of U 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 m service*; Q 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 82. 44 DECEMBER 1985 IICII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A6. National Income and Its Components Jan. July July F T P Nov. T [Annual rate, b i f a dollars (current)| 280. Compensation of employees, Q " • - ••il- IV- - .. ';|: • ' • . : • ! • • • ! : rnption adjustments, Q 288. Net interest, 0 282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, Q 284. Rental income of persons with caUijtat \ consumption adjustment, Q ll 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 82. ItCII DECEMBER 1985 45 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A7. Saving Apr. Feb. P T Dec. Nov. Nov. Mar. P T P T Jan. July P T July Nov. P T |Annual rate, b l M j dollars (current)) j| 293, Personal saving ifcte, Qj ...11 . - , •^ **VH . . .. U U L I L - 19S9 60 • SI .. §2 . •. • • ©3 64 . 65 • .. .•:...; 66 67 v 68 • jijuiJi: 69 70 zrafc a. i; V*» ; \z ; 71 ;. : . li 101 A^ : : . . . . u u u u L ' . •.." , :.J'... .."...: ...• 72 73 74 75 76 • 77 78 • 79 ( ..L U: 80 ^ J51 -". LA.JLA.J;.J°. 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on pages 82 and 83. 46 DECEMBER 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income Jan. July P T July Nov. P T 70- 65- 00- 20-i 268, State and local government purchases ! of $0$ arid services, Q |: : Federal Government jiurchases of good? and services, Q 248. lYonresidentiar fixed investment Q 1 5- 249. Residential fixed investment; Q 0- | > 247. Change \n busies* inventories, Q 251. Net exports of goods and -5- | Percent ol;National income 80 T 75- 70- 287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation i jjdrrt 4apitaljconsumptk*|adju^ments, Q 1 income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, Q ; 285, Reiila! Nome of persons with capital consumption adiustrtfei& 0 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 83. I B C I ) DECEMBER 1985 47 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY Chart B l . Price Movements Jan. July P T July P Mar. T Nov. T Jan. July July P I P fj Implicit price deflator for gross 11 national product ( 1 - 0 span), Nov. T | Percent change at annual rate) ,.' 3 LA! 10. Implicit orice deflator for gross 10- 311c. fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product (1-Qspan) + 15- 3 VAA 311. Fixed-weighted price , indax, .gross + 5- Pm|ucer price indexes— | 6-month spans J + J0- 330c. Ail commodities K4 + 20- I 331c. Crude materials for further processing 1974 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 1974 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 85, and 86. DECEMBER 1985 itcn OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Chart B l . Price Movements—Continued Apr. Feb. P T Nov. P Dec. Nov. P T Mar. T Jan, July P T July P Nov. T 340-1 Consumer price indexes— 140- , 320. AN urban consumers 100-1 + 20-i 320c. All urban consumers (6-month span) o-r & 322c. All urban consumers, food yvA/ *-20-| . A Ac-/ 5 HL JVV +10- ^E3 -IOJ Chart B2. Wages and Productivity 1 Index: 1977=100] 200180- 341. Real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory^ workers on private nonagricultural payrolls1 i X •; > 160140- — 120100- 80- 340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagriculturat payrolls (current dollars)1 200180160140- 346. Real average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector, Q 120100- 60- Average nourty compensation, an employees, nonfarm business sector, Q (current dollars) 40 J 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 6$ 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 81 82 83 84 85 1986 •Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and Interindustry employment shifts and seasonally. Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88. KCII DECEMBER 1985 49 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued Apr. Feb. Dec. Nov. Nov. Mar. P T P T P T Jan. July P I July Nov. P T 1 Percent change] | Wages- C o n . | 6-month spans (ann. rate) + 15 Change in average houriyniriiigrufiHiHluUkiiiui i 1 workers on private nonagricuitural agricultural payrolls 1— i \ j; jVffLj'k..f * .'ijjLlL -lif^rtHL r J +10- 340c. Current-dollar eat 1-month spans2 i\ + 10 v rf} ^ 341c. Real earnings } \ ^ ^ ^ b-monin spans ^ann/raie; i Tt 1 Change in average hourly compeisation, all employees, nonfarm business sector, Q— M W* \ ii *> ' i '• !• ! + 50 i; n -5 -10 + 15 345c. Current-dollar compensation + 10+ 50- i-quarter spans (ann. rate) Keal compensation ^; I! 0- 4-quarter spans v -5- Negotiated wage and benefit decisions— 348, Average first-year changes, Q (ann. rate) ^ K / J\ f\ A /\V^ / \ 349. Average changes over life cf !: contract, Q (ann. rate) 358. Output per hour, an persons, nonfarm business sector, Q J / U . uuipui per iHHir, an pc business sector, Q 370c. Change in output per hour, all persons, business sector, Q | Percent change | 1-quarter soans (ann. rate") 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 79 76 77 78 79 80 81 84 85 1986 'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally. 2 One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make them comparable with the annualized 6-month changes. See page 87 for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 8(1. 50 DECEMBER 1985 K M ) OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES C I LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Chart C l . Civilian Labor Force and Major Components Apr. Feb. P T Dec. P Nov. T Nov. P Mar. T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T 441. Civilian tabor force (millions) 100- 90- 442. Civilian employment (millions) m* 70- Civilian labor force participation rates (percent) 30- 4bLMales 20 years and over 85- 7560- 453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age /^V 45 « 14- Number unemployed (millions)— 12- 1-8 10- 447. Number unemployed, full-time workers (millions) 448. Number otpersons employed part timelor economic reasons (millions) 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 Current data for these series are shown on page 89. ItCII DECEMBER 1985 51 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES I£ ) I GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Chart D l . Receipts and Expenditures Apr. Feb. P T Dec. Uw. P T Nov. P Mar. T Jan July P T July P Nov. T | Annual rate, b i f a dolars (cum 13001100900700- 502. ff|ederai Government expenditures, Q " 500- II L 300- 100 J 500. federal Government surpkjs or (jeficit, Q 511. State and local 512. State and tocal government expenditures, Q 510. State and local government surplus or deficit, Q 1959 60 61 62 63 64 $5 136 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 90. 52 DECEMBER 1985 ItCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Chart D2. Defense Indicators Dec. Nov. P T Apr. Feb. P T Nov. P Mar. T Jan. JLIV P 7 Ju!y P Nev. T [Advance Measures of Defense Activity] 517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred (bil. dpi.; MCD moving avg.—6- 525. Defense Department prime contract awards (bil. dof.; MCD moving avg.—6tterm) 80 J 543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (bil. dol.) 141210- j 6- 548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products (hi dol.; MCD moving avg.~6~term) \ \ 4- *IlVi It 1h $ ' M* t *I 2J 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 83 84 89 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 90. DECEMBER 1985 53 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued Apr Feb. P T Jan. July P July NOT. T P T 80 81 [intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity] ; 557. Industrial production, defense and space equipment 559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products, book value (bit. doL) 561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products 580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions and military assistance (bil, dol.) 588. Manufacturers' shipments, (bil, dol.) 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 9 1 . 54 DECEMBER 1985 KCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued Apr. Feb. P T Jan. July July F T P Dec. Nov. P T Nov. T nietjfoediate and Final Measures of Defense; Activity— Defense Purchases I al Government purchases of goods d(u! services, jnational f Q (ann.j'ate, ))i!. do)r) as | percent of: GNP, IQ (percent) 05 DECEMBER 1985 66 ©7 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 55 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES u s - INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Chart E l . Merchandise Trade Apr. Feb. P Jan. July July F T P Dec. Nov. P T T Nov. T 602. Exports, excluding mi (bil. dol.) 604. Exports of domestic agricultural products (bit. dol.) 60b. txports or nonelectrical macmnery 612. General imports (bit. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products 616. ImjKJrts of automobiles 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 65 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 92. 56 DECEMBER 1985 ItCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES E I U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements Jan. July P T July P Nov. T Annual rate, billion dollars Gokls and services-^ Merchandise, adjusted- Balance on merchandise investment abroad, 652. Foreign investment in the United States, Q 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 93. IICII DECEMBER 1985 57 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Chart F l . Industrial Production Bee. P Apr. Feb. P T Nov. P Nov. T Jan. July P T Mar. T July P Nov. T I Index: 1977=1001 Industrial production— 728. Japan. 721. OECD European countries 111. United Kingdom 47. United States 728. Japan 1959 60 61 62 63) 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 S3 84 8§ Current data for these series are shown on page 94. 58 DECEMBER 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES F INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued Chart F2. Consumer Prices Jan. P Mar. T Chart F3. Stock Prices July July Nov Mar. T P T T ' ••• v ••••;;••: : ; ; . ; r . r : ; - H ;••:•::•:•:;..• : ' : ; : [ : . - : : - " Jan. July P T July P Nov. T ' I'-.tCL'i'^ L'^irjH; "i >'• *';'"•'} •W ' - V ~ 1Q»4— IJindex; ;| Percent change sit iinnWni:! e ;f|^jmsfe:;Ei;'-ii:-; £on$$ner pricesK 260220180 140 H R •"•U.-Vi^-J320^;«6at«t"Sfe"»S-:: jF^-ii^t?:---^?^'- f^- 5L'^:^i^^:^<• r-^^•^•:i-i^--^ v---^^^. 100 < — 12001000800- 30-] 600- 748. Japan 20 \ 400- 738c. Japan 350- 10H 300250200150 H 100400350300250- 736c. France .. 200+ 10- 150 J 800700 - 0 600+ 30-j 500- EiE;!:r;:;;i.:,:::: 732c. United Kingdom 400- + 2C-I 300 - + 10 200-J 3G0- io 260 220180- A 737C. ^ / ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ — 140 - 100- 60400350300- 733c. Canada _ , 250- _ # / * ^ — — — — - — • 200- — 150- /^w Efl 100 1974 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 S3 84 85 1986 1974 75 7% 78 79 81 82 83 84 89 J 1986 Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96. DECEMBER 1985 59 CYCLICAL INDICATORS A I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Q 910. Index of twelve loading indicators (series 1, 5, 8, .12, 19, 20, 29,32, 36, 99,106,111) Year and month (1967-100) 920. Index of four roughly coincident indicators (series 41,47,51,57) (1967-100) 930. Index of six lagging indicators (series 62, 77,91,95, 101,109) (1967 = 100) COMPOSITE INDEXES 940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index Leading indicator subgroups 914. Capital investment commitments (series 12, 20, 29) (1967-100) (1967-100) 915. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 8,32, 36, 99) 916. Profitability (series 19, 26, 80) 917. Money and financial flows (series 104, 106, 111) (1967-100) (1967-100) (1967-100) 1983 145.2 147.4 150.2 134.3 133.5 134.6 115.7 115.8 114.4 116.1 115.3 117.7 106.3 107.0 107.2 97.7 99.2 101.3 97.6 98.6 100.5 127.2 129.1 129.8 1;52.5 154.4 157.3 135.6 137.9 139.8 113.5 111.0 109.8 119.5 124.2 127.3 107.7 109.3 110.3 101.9 102.3 102.5 102.5 104.6 105.7 129.7 129.0 131.5 July August September . 158.2 153.9 160.0 140.7 140.8 143.3 109.7 110.3 109.7 128.3 127.7 130.6 109.4 108.9 109.3 103.1 104.4 104.7 106.5 107.0 107.9 132.4 132.0 130.2 October November December 162.4 162.5 163.4 145.0 145.9 147.5 109.6 110.0 110.9 132.3 132.6 133.0 110.4 110.1 109.2 105.4 105.2 106.1 108.4 108.6 108,8 131.1 132.0 133.9 January February March 164.5 166.5 167.2 149.5 150.6 151.1 109.8 111.3 112.8 (H> 136.2 135.3 134.0 110.3 111.5 110.8 106.1 106.8 107.5 109.2 108.4 109.3 133.4 134.8 136.3 April May June 168.1 168.;* 166.7 152.6 153.9 155.4 114.6 116.4 117.5 133.2 132.2 132.3 110.7 110.7 111.1 H>107.9 107.7 106.0 110.1 110.8 110.5 136.6 138.1 138.0 July August September 163.9 164.4 165.7 155.7 156.0 156.5 118.8 119.8 121.0 131.1 130.2 129.3 109.6 110.3 110.4 104.6 103.6 103.8 110.3 111.7 112.2 137.3 136.9 137.3 October November December 164.2 165.1 164.1 156.5 157.7 rl58.8 122.0 121.7 rl21.9 128.3 129.6 rl30.3 109.3 109.8 109.3 103.8 103.4 102.3 112.4 112.8 rll2.5 135.5 136.0 rl36.3 166.3 167,6 167.8 rl58.4 rl59.0 rl59.3 rl24.1 rl24.6 rl27.6 rl27.6 rl25.6 rl26.8 109.3 E>111.6 110.6 102.6 102.8 102.6 rll3.1 rll3.9 rll4.0 rl39.0 rl38.8 139.0 April May June 166.9 rl67.4 rl67.6 rl60.4 r!60.0 rl59.3 rl25.6 rl27.7 rl27.6 rl27.7 rl25.3 rl24.8 109.7 109.6 110.3 102.5 102.0 101.5 rll4.4 rllB.l rll5.9 rl36.9 rl35.8 135.0 July August September rl68.5 170.0 170.6 rl59.4 rl60.8 rl60.8 rl27.8 rl27.7 rl29.2 rl24.7 rl25.9 rl24,5 110.1 111.0 rill.3 101.6 101.5 rlO1.6 rll6.6 E>rll6.6 (NA) 137.0 rl39.5 rl40.8 171.3 H> 1 171.5 160.7 E>a161.2 ®130.7 9 130.4 rl23.0 P123.6 rlO9.9 P109.8 rlO2.3 P102.1 January February March April May June , . 1984 1985 January February March October . November , . . December [H)rl42.4 P141.2 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by <§), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by[H), Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 10 and 11. Excludes series 36, for which data are not available. Excludes series 57, for which data are not available. Excludes series 77 and 95, for wh:Lch data are not available. 60 DECEMBER 1985 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q j Minor Economic Process Marginal Employment Adjustments Timing Class Year EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT L.L.L I. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing Comprehensive Employment Job Vacancies L.CL L.C.L 21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs1 (Hours) (Thous.) L. Lg. U 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to number of persons unemployed U,C,C L, Lg, U 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers 48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments month (Hours) (Ratio) (1967 = 100) (Ann. rate, oil. hours) Revised 2 1983 January . February March 39.4 39.2 39.6 2.4 2.4 2.5 507 478 479 0.215 0.214 0.216 83 83 83 165.56 164.08 165.08 April May June 39.9 40.0 40.1 2.8 2.7 2.9 470 453 406 0.213 0.230 0.243 81 87 92 166.13 166.96 167.65 July August September 40.3 40.3 40.7 3.0 3.1 3.3 380 408 387 0.283 0.273 0.284 100 97 98 168.76 168.68 170.82 October November December 40.7 40.6 40.6 3.3 3.3 3.4 386 381 378 0.335 0.359 0.391 111 114 121 171.61 171.39 173.01 40.8 E>41.1 40.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 364 E>345 348 0.406 0.435 0.420 123 129 124 174.29 175.77 175.12 April May June 41.0 40.7 40.6 E>3.6 3.4 3.4 360 348 350 0.419 0.435 0.485 124 125 134 176.83 176.56 177.42 July August September 40.5 40.5 40.6 3.3 3.3 3.3 365 358 368 0.484 0.449 0.459 138 128 129 177.83 178.29 179.32 October November December 40.5 40.5 40.6 3.3 3.4 3.4 405 397 386 0.484 0.501 0.527 136 137 E>145 179.25 180.34 180.38 40.6 40.1 40.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 378 402 389 0.488 0.496 0.489 139 140 138 180.77 180.65 181.94 40.2 40.4 40.4 3.4 3.1 3.2 387 383 392 0.463 0.464 0,488 131 131 138 181.70 182.43 182.67 July August September 40.3 40.6 7 3.2 3.3 3.3 381 375 381 0.490 0.487 0.489 139 133 136 182.63 183.30 184.32 October November December 40.7 P40.7 r3.3 P3.4 367 371 0.503 [H>p0.527 140 pl44 E>185.41 P185.40 1984 January February March 1985 January February March April May June . . An See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17. x Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency. a See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. DECEMBER 1985 61 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q | Minor Economic Process Comprehensive Unemployment Comprehensive Employment—Continued Timing Class Year and month EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Continued U,C,C 42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (Thous.) C.C.C 41. Employees on nonagriculturat payrolls (Thous.) L.C.U 40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goodsproducing industries (Thous.) U, Lg, U 90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (Percent) L Lg, U 37. Number of persons unemployed L, Lg, U 43. Unemployment rate 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programsl (Percent) (Percent) (Thous.) Lg, Lg, Lg 91. Average duration of unemployment (Weeks) Lg, Lg, Lg 44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (Percent) 1983 January February March 95,792 95,756 95,897 88,835 88,740 88,942 22,938 22,836 22,814 56.53 56.43 56.47 11,513 11,556 11,430 10.4 10.4 10.3 4.5 4.5 4.4 19.0 19.2 19.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 April May June 96,20S 96,282 96,987 89,244 89,578 89,945 22,923 23,051 23,177 56.59 56.56 56.97 11,316 11,258 11,273 10,2 10.2 10.1 4.4 4.2 3.9 19.3 20.3 20.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 July August September . . . 97,691 98,101 98,675 90,341 90,041 91,182 23,348 23,449 23,608 57.32 57.51 57.68 10,534 10,595 10,281 9.4 9.4 9.2 3.7 3.5 3.3 21.3 20.2 20.4 3.9 3.6 3.5 October November . . . December . . . 98,758 99,453 99,700 91,473 91,773 92,167 23,796 23,953 24,065 57.65 57.97 58.10 9,872 9,448 9,208 8.4 8.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 20.3 20.1 19.6 3.3 3.1 3.0 January February March 100,000 100,524 100,818 92,603 93,115 93,387 24,234 24,464 24,507 58.12 58.40 58.49 9,026 8,836 8,783 8.0 7.8 7.8 3.0 2.9 2.9 19.9 19.0 18.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 April May June 101,023 101,795 102,023 93,725 93,998 94,317 24,603 24,670 24,767 58.59 58.97 59.04 8,300 8,560 8,228 7.8 7.5 7.2 2.8 2.7 2.7 18.7 18.5 18.1 2.5 2.5 2.3 July August September . , . 102,044 101,884 102,075 94,615 94,893 95,238 24,842 24,889 24,851 58.98 58.80 58.88 8,491 8,481 8,370 7.5 7.5 7.4 2.7 2.7 2.7 18.0 17.6 17.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 October November . , . December . . . 102,480 102,598 102,888 95,573 95,882 96,092 24,918 24,955 25,045 58.96 59.06 59.20 8,367 8,142 8,191 7.3 7.1 7.2 2.7 2.8 2.8 16.7 17.4 17.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 January February March 103,071 103,345 103,757 96,419 96,591 96,910 0)25,112 25,062 25,056 59.24 59.35 59.55 8,484 8,399 8,396 7.4 7,3 7.3 2.9 3.0 2,9 15.3 15.9 15.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 April May June 103,517 103,648 103,232 97,120 97,421 97,473 25,090 25,066 25,010 59.41 59.37 58.99 8,426 8,413 8,413 7.3 7.3 7,3 2.8 2.8 2.8 16.1 E>14.9 2.1 1.9 2.0 July August September . . . 103,737 104,080 104,568 97,707 97,977 r98,217 24,980 25,015 r24,962 59.21 59.32 59.47 8,451 D8.127 8,274 7.3 7.0 7.1 2.8 2.7 2.7 15.4 15.6 15.5 2.0 2,0 2.0 October November . , . December . . . 104,841 [H>104,920 r98,571 (H>P98,753 25,045 p25,073 E>59.59 59.57 8,291 8,140 7.1 (H>7.0 2.7 E>2.7 15.3 16.0 EM.9 1984 1985 2.0 See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on paces 14, 15, 17, and 18. 1 Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency. 62 DECEMBER 1985 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC Q PROCESS PRODUCTION AND INCOME Minor Economic Comprehensive Output and Income Process Timing Class • C, C, C 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars Year c, c, c c,c,c. • Personal income 223. Current dollars and Industrial Production 52. Constant (1982) dollars c,c,c 51. Personal income less: salaries in 1982 transfer pay- dollars, mining, ments in 1982 mfg., and con- dollars struction 53. Wages and C,C,C 47. Index'of. industrial production 'C, C. C '. 73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures C.L.L 74. Index of industrial production, C.C.C 49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars nondurable manufactures month (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.). (Ann. rate, bil.doL) Revised1 Revised1 Revised1 Revised1 Revised1 3,196!6 2,749.8 2,745.4 2,763.3 2,688.0 2,683.7 2,69B.5 2,263.6 2,256.3 2,267.5 489.4 487.9 489.4 102.5 103.3 104.2 98.7 100'. 1 101.8 107.5 108.2 109.4 April May June 3,259^3 2,780.8 2,810.4 2,825.9 2,697.2 2,718.0 2,725.1 2,268.2 2,285.3 2,295.6 489.9 491.7 494.9 105.6 106.9 107 3 103.3 104.7 105 9 110.6 112.4 113 4 July August September 2,842.1 2,845.5 2,869.6 2,735.4 2,728.2 2,740.8 2,310.1 2,304.6 2,320.3 498.0 499.3 505.4 109.8 111.6 113.7 108.6 3,293*.4 110.9 113.1 114,9 116.2 118.0 3,357*.2 2,909.1 2,933.9 2,961.3 2,770.6 2,783.6 2,801.6 2,352.1 2,359.5 2,377.7 508.9 512.3 515.0 114.4 114.8 115.5 114.4 114.9 116,3 117.9 117.9 117.5 3,449^4 3,004.5 3,039.2 3,057.7 2,826.4 2,848.4 2,857.7 2,403.5 2,426.8 2,435.5 519.2 523.6 524.5 118.4 119.3 120.1 119.6 121.0 122.2 119.5 121.0 121.6 1,489*6 3,49 2 : 6 3,072.8 3,079.1 3 098 7 2,861.1 2,861.6 2 871 8 2,438.5 2,440.4 2 451 6 527.1 527.1 530 2 120.7 121.3 122 3 123.3 123.8 124 7 121.9 122.3 123 2 i,5n:6 3,510^4 3,124.1 3,143.1 3,165.5 2,887.3 2,888.9 2,901.5 2,467.6 2,468.5 2,483.3 530.9 531.8 531.5 123.2 123.5 123.3' 126.4 127.7 127.2 123.9 123.2 123.1 i.5ii:i 3, 51 s:e 3,167.2 3,184.0 3,207.4 2,895.1^ 2,902.5 2,918.5 2,474.5 2,481.3 2,504.1 531.2 533.4 537.2 122.7 123.4 . 123.3 127.0 127.5 127.4 123.3 123.8 123.4 1,5l6!5 January February March 3,547:8 3,217.3 3,247.2 3 258 2 2,927.5 2,944.0 2 940 6 2,495.2 2,510.4 2 507 9 123.6 123.7 124 0 127.8 127.2 128' 0 ' 123.2 123.8 123 9 1.536:3 April May June 3,55^4 3,288.6 3,271.2 3,280.5 0)2,962.7 2,939.1 2,942.2 ©2,529.5 2,506.7 2,510.9 536.0 536.6 536.1 ' 124.1 124.1 124.3 128.2 127.9 127.6 124.3 124.7 125.5 1.53U5 E>3,584!i 3,290.0 3,295.5 3,309.9 2,945.4 2,947.7 2,952.6 2,506.7 2,513.0 2,516.9 534.3 535.9 536.7 E)rl25.2 rl25.0 127.9 • [H)rl29.4 rl28.5 2,956.6. p2,962.5 2,521.6 p2,527.7 535.7 P534.1 . rl24.6 P125.1 rl27.9 P128.9 (Ann. ! rate, bil. dol.) . (1977 = 100) (1977 = 100) (1977 = 100) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised1 1983 January February March October November December ....;.. ....... 1,358!8 ,,„;:; 1984 January February March April May June July August September . . . . . . . October November December 1985 July AugUSt September October November December : .. : .. ....;,. 3,326.2 E>P3,344.7 . H>539.4 : 536.0 537 6 •124.1 125.6 126.6 rl27.0 127.0 B>pl27.1 ....... See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40. 1 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page "Flash" estimate. 2 DECEMBER 1985 in. 63 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued mm (IH MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Minor Economic Process PRODUCTION AND INCOME- Continued ^ Q Capacity Utilization Timing Class L, C, U 82, Capacity utilization iate, manufacturing Orders and Deliveries L.C.U 84. Capacity utilization rate, materials Yeaf and month L.L.L (Percent) L.L.L Manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries 7. Constant (1972) dollars 6. Current dollars (Percent) CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) L t L, L 8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1972 dollars, consumer goods and materials (Bil. dol.) L, Lg, U L.L.L 25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (Bil. dol.) 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (Bil. dol.) L,L, L 32. Vendor performance, companies receiving slower deliveries @ (Percent reporting) 1983 January February March . , . 159.5 70.1 70.9 70.7 71.4 72.1 82.16 77.17 78.99 35.17 32.78 33.57 31.29 31.53 31.61 4.06 -0.82 -0.42 291.86 291,04 290.62 41 42 50 April May June 71.8 72.6 73.2 72.9 73.8 74.0 82.40 82.87 88.87 34.96 35.04 37.42 32.03 33.06 33.84 2.11 1.28 4.16 292.73 294.01 298.17 52 52 52 July August September 74.6 75.7 76.9 75.8 76.8 78.4 87.96 88.80 91.58 36.94 37.26 38.38 34.38 35,02 35.17 3.33 2.53 3.22 301.50 304.04 307.25 52 61 60 October November December 77.3 77,3 77,6 79.0 79.3 79.6 95.40 98.04 98.63 39.93 40.97 41.11 36.32 37.07 37.55 5.85 5.13 1.89 313.10 318.24 320.12 64 59 67 January February March 79.,? 80.0 80. ft 81.6 82.1 82.5 99.55 101.79 104.45 41.51 42.24 43.18 38.33 38.30 37.21 4.38 5.44 E>8.14 324.50 329.94 338.09 63 68 E>72 April May June 80.7 80.7 81.1 82.6 82.6 82.8 97.31 100.95 98.34 40.13 41.65 40.47 37.16 37.42 36.56 1.85 4.06 0.61 339.93 343.99 344.60 71 70 66 July August September 81.7 H>81.8 81.3 83.0 E>83.1 82.7 101.98 101.86 98.21 41.98 41.85 40.32 37.51 37.39 36.21 4.14 1.61 0.00 348.73 350.34 350.34 60 54 58 October November December 81.1 81.2 80.9 81.3 81.5 81.3 96.51 104.43 101.31 39.65 42.78 41.52 36.98 37.68 37.20 -4.30 2.04 -2.63 346.04 348.08 345.44 52 50 45 January February March 80.7 80.4 80.5 81.7 81.5 81.4 105.45 102.47 99.54 43.20 41.86 40,60 [H>39.23 37.82 36.90 3,48 0.75 -2.58 348.92 349.67 347.10 47 48 46 April May June 80.5 80.3 80.1 80.9 80.1 80.1 99.84 102.97 106.78 40.70 41.82 43.25 37.47 37.85 37.40 -2,22 0.25 4.12 344.87 345.13 349.25 44 44 44 July August September 80.1 r80>7 80.3 79.5 r79.9 r79.4 104.37 E>107.66 106.64 r42.31 [H> 43.64 43.35 r37.64 38.14 38.50 1.89 2.35 2.98 351.14 353.49 H>356.48 44 42 42 October November December r79.8 p80.0 r78.9 p79.1 rlO4.5O P105.44 r42.27 P42.62 r38.94 P39.16 r-1.98 p-2.27 T354.49 P352.22 46 42 1984 1 1985 See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 21. 64 DECEMBER 1985 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS ^ Q Minor Economic Process Timing Class Formation of Business Enterprises Consumption and Trade C C, C c,c,c Manufacturing and trade sales Year and month • I FIXED CAPITAL • i l l INVESTMENT CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES—Continued 56. Current dollars (Mil. dol.) 57. Constant (1972) dollars (Mil. dol.) C,L,C 75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods (1977 = 100) C,l, U U, L, U Sales of retail stores 54. Current dollars (Mil. dol.) 59. Constant (1972) dollars (Mil. dot.) L,C,C 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles (Ann. rate, bit. dol.) L, L, L 58. Index of consumer sentiment © L, L,L 12. Index of net business formation (1st Q 1966=100) (1967 = 100) L,L,L 13. Number of new business incorporations1 (Number) Revised 2 1983 45,542 45,646 46,534 lY.'b 104.5 92,041 92,159 94,231 70.4 74.6 80 8 111.4 113.3 112 7 49,999 48,296 48 032 155,840 159,750 163,430 106.2 107.8 108.8 95,073 96,827 98,291 46,742 47,464 48,158 8^9 89.1 93.3 92 2 112.0 114.8 116 4 48,903 50,211 50,992 370,864 374,813 380 348 162,746 163,623 165 068 110.3 112.2 113 4 98,651 98,590 99 534 48,169 47,999 48 364 90.2 93.9 90.9 89 9 115.2 114.4 115 8 48,601 52,828 50 445 385,163 389,775 399 089 166,438 168,593 172 020 113.6 113.6 114 4 100,980 102,202 102 867 48,996 49,613 49 815 95^8 89.3 91.1 94 2 118.0 117.8 116 3 50,441 51,642 January February March 402,489 402,395 404,612 173,254 172,231 172,733 116.2 116.9 117.3 106,136 105,726 104,525 51,076 50,928 50,228 100.1 97.4 ©101.0 115.9 117.2 116.9 53,044 53,591 53,424 April May June 408,342 412,524 413,976 174,104 177,265 178,302 118.3 117.7 118.5 107,443 107,941 109,085 51,630 52,020 52,698 104.9 96.1 98.1 95.5 117.5 115.7 117.0 53,933 51,166 54,729 July August September 412,233 413,300 412,276 176,575 177,143 176,087 119.1 118.4 51,713 51,509 51,878 104.4 118.3 107,563 107,396 108,373 96.6 99.1 100.9 115.8 119.1 B>119.7 52,092 51,723 52,237 October November December 414,243 417,635 421,613 176,602 178,276 180,437 118.5 119.6 119.7 108,974 110,255 110,519 51,991 52,628 52,829 108.2 96.3 95.7 92.9 117.7 116.0 116.6 52,587 53,490 53,503 January February March 417,350 418,667 420,776 178,600 179,051 179,626 118.8 119.1 119.8 110,972 112,096 111,854 52,844 53,303 53,011 11CL9 96.0 93.7 93.7 117.8 118.7 116-6 53,266 54,533 55,764 April May June 426,472 428,275 418,378 181,644 182,711 178,984 119.5 120.0 120.4 115,351 114,884 113,730 54,539 54,422 53,900 112.5 94.6 91.8 96.5 116.6 114.3 116.5 55,866 r56,124 55,339 July August September 422,483 0)430,417 r428,998 180,421 [H)rl84,052 rl83,793 120.1• rl21.5 rlZ1.7 114,417 116,977 94.0 92.4 92.1 116.3 117.6 rll7.4 p53,926 0)126!i E>rll9,538 54,149 55,387 [H>r56,466 October November December p426,344 (NA) pl82,136 (NA) rll4,546 pll5,854 r54,006 p54,264 88.4 90.9 rll5.3 P116.1 January February March 347,323 345,215 350,370 154,166 153,092 155,596 103.0 103.7 April May June 353,371 360,313 368,553 July August September October November December 1984 102.5 ... 1985 rl21.1 H>P121.7 (NA) See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 14, 22, and 23. Series 13 reached its high value (57,507) in December 1982. z See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/1 page iii. DECEMBER 1985 65 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS ^ J Minor Economic Process Business Investment Commitments Timing Class L.L.L L, L. L Contracts and orders for plant and equipment Year and month FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued 10. Current dollars (Bil. dol.) 20. Constant (1972) dollars {Bil. dol.) L, L,L Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods industries 24. Current dollars {Bil. dol.) U. Lg, U L, C, U L.L.L 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings' 27. Constant (1972) dollars Square feet of floor space (Bil. dol.) (Millions) Square meters of floor space2 (Millions) 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Bil. dol.) C Lg, Lg 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Bil. dol.) 1983 January February March 23.72 24.07 23.82 11.85 11.77 12.59 20.94 19.18 20.13 10.67 9.68 11.01 61.13 58.88 55.37 5.68 5.47 5.14 20.07 April May June 26.07 26.1)7 27.49 13.32 13.08 14.15 22.26 21.50 23.69 11.68 10.91 12.54 57.11 57.60 63.13 5.31 5.35 5.86 2o!87 July August September 25.73 27.36 28.91 12.92 13.51 15.04 22.15 22.96 24.99 11.41 11.65 13.38 63.03 63.93 70.18 5.86 5.94 6.52 22^78 6.61 6.79 6.33 24^26 69.60 70.'58 72^7 29.28 28.57 28.59 14.60 13.90 14.04 25.38 24.33 25.23 12.95 12.10 12.62 71.15 73.07 68.14 January February March 29.37 30.98 30.97 14.85 15.55 15.75 25.72 27.02 26.76 13.32 13.89 14.00 72.72 64.41 74.95 6.76 5.98 6.96 26.92 April May June 30.22 33.30 31.86 14.94 16.56 15.95 26.33 28.56 27.72 13.33 14.61 14.25 79.78 82.49 74.90 7.41 7.66 6.96 0>34*.12 July August September 33.16 31.17 31.84 15.62 15.46 1R fiQ 13.57 13.65 13.86 79.55 82.65 75.84 7.39 7.68 7.05 27.31 X v> » U 3 28.14 26.74 27.39 October November December 30.31 r31.54 31.15 14.89 rl5.84 14.19 25.26 26.84 26.89 12.83 13.92 12.47 79.04 83.75 86.73 7.34 7.78 8.06 29.10 January February March 27.34 33.73 31.77 12.80 0)18.55 15.89 23.63 0)29.49 27.21 11.31 0)16.85 14.06 81.14 82.48 87.41 7.54 7.66 8.12 29.94 April May June 29.99 30.03 31.89 14.12 14.77 15.54 25.46 25.59 27.98 12.33 13.02 14.01 91.95 83.99 69.68 8.54 7.80 6.47 r27.56 July August September 32.11 32.13 26.68 27.55 29.24 13.21 13.85 14.32 91.89 91.41 0)93.19 8.54 8.49 0>34.52 15.34 15.65 16.40 0)8.66 33.10 P31.68 rl5.72 P15.05 27.09 P26.71 rl3.35 P13.09 92.00 92.61 8.55 8.60 October . . . November December 73^50 1984 78.46 89.18 92.06 94.37 1985 October November December 99.35 [H)r99.88 P24.41 P95.88 See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24. x This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. 2 Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 66 DECEMBER 1985 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS 0 | Minor Economic Process Timing Class Year and month FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued Residential Construction Commitments and Investment Business Investment Expenditures C, Lg, Lg C Lg, Lg 61. Expenditures for new plant and equipment by U.S. nonfarm business 69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (Ann. rate, • bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) C, Lg, U 76. Index of industrial production, business equipment (1977-100) C, Lgt C C, Lg, C t-g, Lg, Lg Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars 86. Total 87. Structures 88. Producers' durable equipment (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised1 Revised1 Revised 1 1983 L, I, L L, Lr L 28. New private housing units started 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (Ann. rate, thous.) (1967 = 100) L.L.L 89. Gross private residential fixed investment in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised1 January . February March . . 289.36 310.84 -300.99 311.35 109.2 109.4 110.0 337.5 129.3 208.2 1,605 1,675 1,635 115.2 118.8 119.2 127.2 April May June 295.24 312.62 303.44 324.11 111-5 112.4 113.4 346.9 125.4 221.4 1,512 1,780 1,716 126.5 134.8 142.9 145.8 July August September . . , 308.79 318.69 321.45 327.37 114.6 117.7 120.8 363.4 128.6 234.7 1,775 1,907 1,677 145.0 138.4 128.0 161.6 October . . November December 325.75 326.58 337.58 352.66 120.7 121.7 123.0 392.9 135.4 257.5 1,696 1,748 1,704 138.6 134.7 131.4 160.4 January . February March, . 337.95 344.25 347.76 360.86 127.1 128.5 130.4 398.8 138.8 260.0 1,933 0)2,208 1,700 146.7 0)157.6 138.7 166.6 April . . May .. June . . 349.97 360.32 372.34 380.00 131.2 133.3 135.5 426.8 148.5 278.3 1,949 1,787 1,837 142.6 140.7 143.9 170.0 July August . . September 361.48 372.18 379.37 393.90 1-37.0 139.1 139.2 437.6 151.6 286.0 1,730 1,590 1,669 126.9 123.0 121.0 170.8 October . . . November , December . 368.29 387.81 392.33 E>408.82 139.1 139.8 138.4 457,8 156.0 301.9 1,564 1,600 1,630 117.8 128.9 127.5 166.0 January . February March . . 371.16 376.70 390.74 407.17 140.4 140.0 140,2 457.2. 163.2 293.9 1,849 1,647 1,889 130,4 129.5 138.8 166.7 April . May . June , 387.83 403.73 398.22 403.24 142.0 141.9 140.7 470.9 165.3 305.6 1,933 1,681 1,701 135.9 141.8 136.5 169.6 July . . . . August . . September E>388.90- 398.04 T408.47 r39.7.76 141.3 E>143.0 r142.1 H>473.7 0)165,8 0)307.9 1,663 1,740 rl,616 135.1 142.3 rl44.2 0)173.1 October . . November December P408.64 ra388.98 rHl.l P141.9 rl,761 pi,547 134.6 132.5 1984 1 1985 (NA) See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25. l See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.' Anticipated expenditures for 1986: 1st quarter, 402.13; 2d quarter, 405.99. DECEMBER 1985 67 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS NVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT Minor Economic Process Inventory Investment Timing Class Year and month L.L.L L.L.L L, L, I, 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1972 dollars Smoothed' Actual (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Inventories on Hand and on Order (Ann. rate, bit. dol.) 31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories, book value (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L.L.L 38. Change in mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order (Bil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg Manufacturing and trade inventories 71. Book value (Bil. dol.) Revised2 -42.2 -14.18 2.20 -15.07 -24.16 -17.24 -9.98 -3.7 2.99 9.18 0.82 -6.16 -2.13 1.68 July August September . . . 1.4 16.79 18.22 12.22 6.63 10.44 13.84 10.6 30.2 39.1 October November . . . December . . . 22.6 20.28 19.19 13.51 16.32 17.07 17.45 24.8 36.6 48.7 April May June 70. Constant (1982) dollars (Bil. dol.) Revised 1983 January February March Lg, Lg, Lg -30.0 -7.4 -38.6 2.3 7.5 8.9 Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg L, Lg, Lg 65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods, book value 77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in 1972 dollars 78. Mfrs.1 inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order (Ratio) (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) 2 -0.04 1.00 0.54 506.71 506.10 502.88 579.18 578.34 574.36 84.37 83.74 82.68 1.67 1.68 1.65 191.29 192.29 192.83 -0.02 0.64 2.09 503.07 503.70 504.44 574.25 574.62 574.30 82.32 82.06 81.86 1.64 1.60 1.56 192.81 193.45 195.54 505.33 507.85 511.10 574.18 575.74 577.18 82.14 81.70 81.45 1.57 1.57 1.56 197.31 200.27 201.84 513.17 516.22 520.28 577.97 580.79 583.93 81.20 81.55 80.96 1.51 204.86 206.82 208.73 524.73 532.14 538.82 586.88 593.30 597.76 81.16 81.90 83.14 211.54 214.36 216.71 603.95 608.83 610.26 84.14 85.11 86.38 1.51 218.52 220.18 219.97 1.54 1,55 1.57 ©222.58 222.40 222.35 H>3.02 1984 January February March 25.36 18.87 24.78 31.46 H>88, ' 80, 66.0 39.68 28.45 -6.72 B>35.45 34.32 25.82 85.3 54.9 23.0 1.81 1.66 -0.22 545.93 550.50 552.42 July August September . . . 64.9 27.41 19.49 16.56 18.42 14.89 17.27 57.0 54.6 45.1 2.61 -0.18 -0.05 557.17 561.72 565.48 614.50 619.87 623.37 86.95 87.80 88.55 October November . . . December . . . 36.1 8.39 0.07 -5.72 17.98 11.58 4.63 39.3 29.9 26.3 -1.06 568.75 571.24 573.43 626.19 628.38 630.26 88.89 89.27 89.69 1.57 1.56 1.55 219.92 218.36 217.30 .6 April May June 27.55 [H>47.38 53, 1985 January February March 15.8 22.68 19.98 -5.82 3.30 9.00 12.30 28.4 37. -2. 0.65 -0.48 -3.07 575.80 578.94 578.77 631.86 635.01 634.00 89.69 89.86 90.12 1.57 1.58 1.57 217.95 317.47 214.40 April May June 15.1 2.94 -:'.3.44 4.52 8.99 0.13 -3.72 17.2 -29.0 22.6 -0.94 -1.54 1.68 580.20 577.78 579.66 635.80 634.55 635.74 90.12 0)90.13 89.87 1.56 1.55 R>1.58 213.46 211.93 213.61 July August September . . . -l.E 1.12 r-10,04 r0.43 -2.30 r-2.03 r-2.15 5.4 -23.2 r8.8 -0.46 0.31 -0.11 580.12 578.18 r578.92 636.51 635.74 636.12 89.26 88.86 88.26 1.57 1.54 rl.54 213.15 213.46 213.35 pi].62 p-1.08 (NA) P37.4 (NA) p-0.34 (NA) |H>p582.03 (NA) E>p638.02 (NA) 87.58 (NA) pi.56 (NA) P213.69 October November . . . December . . . (NA) (NA) See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 15, 2), and 27. This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. "See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 1 68 DECEMBER 1985 BCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC Q PROCESS Minor Economic Stock Sensitive Commodity Prices Process Timing Class Year and month L.L.L 98. Change in producer prices for 28 sensitive crude and intermediate ' materials (Percent) U,L,L 23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial, materials l @ Profits and Profit Margins Prices L.L.L L, L, L 99. Change in sensitive materials prices 2 Actual PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Smoothed 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks © L.L.L L, L, L Corporate profits after tax L.C.L L.C.L Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj3 L.L.L 22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after 16. Current dollars 18. Constant 79. Current 80. Constant tax to corpo- (1982) dollars dollars (1982) dollars rate domestic income (1967 = 100) (Percent) (Percent) (1941-43-10) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, Revised 4 Revised 4 Revised 4 Revised 4 Revised 4 bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dot.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Percent) 1983 E)2.53 1.72 232.1 241.3 248.8 1.40 E>2.49 1.80 -0.04 0.78 1.61 144.27 146.80 151.88 108^2 106.5 1I4.*5 112.8 5.*3 0.04 1.62 2.28 253.2 251.5 250.5 0.53 0.66 1.09 0)1.75 1.30 0.88 157.71 164.10 166.39 126.'0 12^3 132li 130*.5 6\i 0.81 1.24 -0.43 256.0 265.2 267.9 1.04 1.71 0.08 0.85 1.10 1.11 166.96 162.42 167.16 141 ".3 139^5 144^3 142'.7 H>6.6 1.60 1.08 0.84 273.4 279.8 282,4 1.43 1.24 0.70 1.01 1.00 1.02 167.65 165.23 164.36 143.6 140.9 163.6 161.5 6.5 -1.09 0.97 0.29 283.6 283.6 289,2 -0.45 0.53 0.73 0.81 0.38 0.26 166.39 157.25 157.44 H>14&\3 H>144.*4 168.'9 165.3 6\5 -0.29 -0.71 -1.04 288.6 S>289.5 286.2 -0.20 -0.28 -0.89 0.31 0.22 -0.19 157.60 156.55 153.12 146.7 141.8 177!l 172^4 6\4 June July August September -1.54 -1.20 0 54 280,1 275.6 274.0 -1.43 -1.12 0 13 -0.66 -1.01 -0 98 151.08 164.42 166 11 140 '.3 134^2 183.8 i77]g 5^8 -0.10 0.17 -0.40 266.4 268.3 261.9 -0.88 0.30 -0.93 -0.72 -0.39 -0 33 164.82 166.27 164 48 Ho! 6 133^5 188.8 181* 7 s'.h -0.71 -1.72 -0*62 255.8 253.1 252.4 -1.06 -1.20 -0.39 -0.53 -0.81 -0.97 171.61 180.88 179.42 136!e 128.7 198.3 i9o!6 s'.s -0.28 0.94 0 00 257.1 252.0 242 9 0.39 -0.09 -1 OQ -0.64 -0.22 -0.15 180.62 184.90 188.89 136\4 127.6 205'.8 196.4 5.4 rO.OO r-0.45 -0.62 240.7 239.8 238.0 r-0.26 r-0.35 -0.53 r-0.37 -0.52 r-0.47 192.54 188.31 184.06 14l!i 131-7 B>221.7 [H>2li!4 5.7 236.9 234.5 234.4 0.67 -0.44 r-0.22 -0.08 186.18 E>197.45 6 206.78 1.56 January February March April May June ... July August September October November December 1984 January February March April May October . . . November December 1985 January February March April May June July August September 1.53 -0.24 October November December 5 See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29. lj This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. See footnote 1 on page 68. 3IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. "See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page. iii. 5Average. for December 1-19. 6Average for December 4, 11, and 18. 2 DECEMBER 1985 69 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q Minor Economic Process Year and month 1983 U, L, L L, L, L 81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj to corp. domestic income' 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations (Percent) (Cents) Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share Cash Flows Profits and Profit Margins—Continued Timing Class PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Continued L, L, L 26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector (1977 = 100) Revised2 L.L.L L.L.L Corporate net cash flow 34. Current dollars Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 63. Index of unit labor cost, business sector 68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product, nonfinancial corporations 35. Constant (1982) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dor.) (Ann. rate, bil. d o l l Revised2 Revised2 (1977 = 100) (Dollars) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg. Lg, Lg 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing Actual data (1967-100) Actual data as a percent of trend 64, Compensation of em* ployees as a percent of national income (Percent) (Percent) Revised2 Revised2 January February March 5.7 3.3 96.4 290.5 288.0 156.8 0.682 221.9 220.2 219.0 100.3 99.0 98,0 75.4 April May June 6.5 4.0 97.9 315.0 313.6 155.4 0.678 218.4 216.7 216.5 97.3 96.1 95.6 74.7 July August September . . . 6.8 4,2 98.7 338.1 336.8 155.1 0.676 214.3 212.0 211.0 94.1 92.7 91.8 74.3 October November . . December . . 7.6 4.5 98.8 347.5 345.8 156.8 0.680 211.9 213.5 215.1 91.8 92.0 92.3 73.8 January February March 7.7 4.9 98.7 357.8 355.1 157.7 0.679 213.0 213.1 212.4 90.9 90.5 89.8 72.8 April . May . June . 8.1 E>4.9 99.8 360.1 355.8 156.5 0.682 212.9 212.5 211.7 89.6 89.0 88.2 73.0 July August September . , , 8.2 4.4 99.7 364.6 358.6 •158.0 0.691 210.5 210.8 211.3 87.3 87.0 86.8 73.1 October November . . , December . , . 8.4 4.3 B>1OO.1 371.6 364.2 158.4 0.697 212.1 213.2 215.6 86.7 86.8 87.3 73.4 4.2 99.4 379.9 372.6 161.9 0.703 0)216.4 216.0 216.1 87.2 86.7 86.3 73.5 1984 1985 January . February March . . April May June 9.0 3.7 99.6 387.3 381.0 162.6 0.70.9 215.1 215.3 215.8 July . . . . August . . September 9.8 p3.7 r99.6 0)404.0 0)396.9 [H>rl63.2 0)0.709 215.4 r214.0 r214.9 85.5 85.2 85.0 84.4 r83.4 r83.4 r216.2 P216.0 r83.5 P83.0 October . . November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 29, ind 30. X IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment, 2 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 70 DECEMBER 1985 73.8 0)73.9 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS H J Minor Economic Process Timing Class MONEY AND CREDIT Money L, L, L 85. Change in money supply M l Year and month (Percent) L, C, U 102. Change in money supply M2 (Percent) L, I L Velocity of Money L.UL L, L,L 104. Change in total liquid assets 105. Money supply Ml in 1972 dollars 106. Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars (Percent) (Bil. dol.) (Bit. dol.) C.C.C Credit Flows C, Lg, C 107. Ratio, gross national product to ' money supply ML 108, Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (Ratio) (Ratio) 1 Revised L.L.L L.L.L 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and fife insurance companies (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 112. Net change in business loans (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1 Revised 1983 January . February March . . 0.75 1.18 1.16 E>2.78 1.83 0.82 Dl.25 0.98 0.74 206.7 209.2 211.4 857.2 873.5 879.7 6.669 1.369 1.342 1.340 45.77 40.99 -40.55 46.25 -1.91 10.98 April . . . May . . . June . . . 0.69 1.32 0.81 0.70 0.78 0.68 0.87 0.66 0.82 211.5 213.4 214.6 880.0 883,2 887.1 6.664 1.33-9 1.343 1.341 1.30 -38.76 32.99 -46.07 -45.98 3.02 July . . . . August . . September 0.96 0.70 0.41 0.61 0.52 0.63 1.01 0.88 0.71 215.8 216.6 216.7 889.0 890.6 893.0 6.637 1.340 1.335 1.338 63.30 70.21 5.22 -3.26 14.05 -0.50 October November . . , December . . . 0,67 0.42 0.34 0.90 0.64 0.49 0.53 0.89 1.13 217.4 217.6 217.7 898.0 900.7 902.4 6.719 1.344 1.347 1.353 81.37 78.73 110.02 18.46 53.30 0.64 0.53 0.58 0.61 0.67 0.55 0.72 0.79 1.17 217.7 218.0 218.7 902.4 904.8 907.1 6.881 1.364 1.371 E> 1.372 r77.90 r89.02 rlO9.56 0.16 55.91 B>110.20 0.35 0.61 0.88 0.54 0.63 0.63 0.97 1.09 1.15 218. 219. 221.0 908.2 912.4 916.3 6.920 371 365 1.365 rl29.14 rl31.18 rll2.06 87.13 81.90 93.26 July August September . . . -0.07 0.37 0.47 0.48 0.55 0.68 1.05 0.79 0.89 220.1 220.0 220.3 917.8 919.0 922.0 6.943 1.370 1.371 1.371 rll3.72 rlO8.52 [H>rl39.48 38.29 15.88 42.76 October November . . . December . . . -0.58 1.00 0.85 0.47 1.16 1.08 0.62 K3.84 rl.10 218.4 220.1 221.5 923. 932. 940.4 [0)6.960 1.366 1.357 1.352 r86.96 r70.18 r29.88 52.49 57.98 8.10 ; 0.75 1.19 0.47 1.15 0.92 0.36 0.64 0.88 0.77 222.7 224.6 224.6 949.4 954.8 953.7 6.896 1.341 1.341 1.341 86.58 44.72 100.56 38.95 21.36 32.24 0.49 -0.08 0.71 1.15 rO.06 r0.49 r0.82 224.8 227.0 230.2 949.4 954.1 962.9 6.798 1.355 1.338 1.327 90.41 66.08 77.05 14.71 • 32.30 -53.53 0.72 0.94 rO.59 r0.51 231.6 r235.0 236.9 968.0 975.3 E>r979.2 6.645 1.321 1.311 1.309 r55.54 r72.76 r64.87 r-0.76 r-12.22 r0.18 p0.55 (NA) r235.9 Dp237.2 977.9 P977.9 1.313 pi.313 P115.01 (NA) r74.11 P71.02 1984 January February March April May June ; 1985 January February . . . . March . . . . . . April May June : 1.17 1.65 July August . . . . ' . September . , . October November . . . December . . : 0.78 (H>rl.70 r0.99 r-0.13 pi. 10 2 1.89 rl.03 0.83 23.57 See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32. 1 See 2 "New Features and Changes for This Issue/ page i i i . Average for weeks ended December 2 and 9. DECEMBER 1985 71 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q Minor Economic Process . . Year and month L,L,L 113. Net change in consumer installment credit (Ann. rah, bil. dol.) L. Lr L L.L.L 111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding (Ann. rate, percent) Bank Reserves Credit Difficulties Credit Flows—Continued Timing Class MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued 110. Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets (Ann. rate, mil. dol.) L.L.L 14. Current liabilities of business failures © (Mil. dol.) IM U,L 39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over (Percent) 93. Free reserves © (Mil. dol.) Interest Rates L. Lg, U 94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve @ (Mil. dol.) L. Lg- Lg 119. Federal funds rate © (Percent) C Lg. Lg 114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills © (Percent) 1983 January February March 23.30 21.24 40.02 8.4 2.9 0.1 295,504 2,158.1 1,086.4 1,154.7 April May June 33.78 35.33 47.28 -0.6 -3.8 5.5 396,432 July August September . . , 53.48 54.48 44.68 8.9 9.9 2.6 October November . . . December . . . 73.66 69.02 76.45 2.24 2.23 2.22 46 -122 -415 500 557 852 8.51 8.77 7.81 8.13 8.30 1,125.6 920.0 2,188.6 1.92 -517 -453 -1,234 993 902 1,714 8.80 8.63 8.98 8.25 8.19 8.82 396,536 E>829.2 1,353.1 947.2 1.95 1.90 1.88 -875 -1,127 -943 1,382 1,573 1,441 9.37 9.56 9.45 9.12 9.39 9.05 8.6 11.7 14.3 525,532 1,816.8 1,624.5 868.5 1.94 -332 -383 -184 837 912 745 9.48 9.34 9.47 8.71 8.71 8.96 63.20 74.26 71.15 10.3 15.1 20.3 416,056 1,783.3 1,713.1 3,479.7 1.84 ©1.78 1.85 -102 376 -241 715 567 952 9.56 9.59 9.91 8.93 9.03 9.44 81.50 109.12 84.98 20.0 E>24.0 20.6 521,868 2,429.4 3,074.3 3,427.4 06 96 02 -742 -2,408 -2,526 1,234 2,988 3,300 10.29 10.32 11.06 9.69 9.90 9.94 July August September . . . 77.77 72.26 59.78 13.7 11.8 17.1 407,008 2,783.7 1,968.7 2,045.6 96 93 2.10 311 328 -6,614 5,924 E>8,017 7,242 11.23 ©11.64 11.30 10.13 ©10.49 10.41 October November . . . December . . , 67.57 72.96 81.83 11.1 12.1 6.4 (NA) 0)585,732 1.91 1.97 2.09 -5,397 -3,924 -2,333 6,017 4,617 3,186 9.99 9.43 8.38 9.97 8.79 8.16 January February March 86.68 108.49 100.10 13.9 9.2 13.3 r446,688 20 19 40 -650 -386 -827 1,395 1,289 1,593 8.35 8.50 8.58 7.76 8.22 8.57 April May June 99.24 108.50 62.72 11.5 11.3 3.6 r470,036 38 25 33 -585 -530 -300 1,323 1,334 1,205 8.27 7.97 7.53 8.00 56 01 July August September . . . 74.96 r68.71 [H>rl38.37 r7.8 r8.4 r9.0 p510,560 2.29 2.35 2.39 -252 -246 -623 1,107 1,073 1,289 7.88 7.90 7.92 05 18 08 October November . . . December . . . 79.54 (NA) rl5.6 pll.l (NA) r-434 p-814 1,187 pl.741 1984 January February March April May June 1985 7.99 8.05 8.15 X See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 32, 33, and 34. l Average for weeks ended December 4, 11, 18, and 25. 2 Average for weeks ended December 5;1 12, 19, and 26. 72 DECEMBER 1985 2 17 20 7.06 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS ^ | Minor Economic Process Timing Class Year and month MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued Interest Rates—Continued Lg, Lgr Lg C Lg, Lg U, Lg, Lg 116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds © 115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds © 117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20bond average © (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) Outstanding Debt Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 118. Secondary market yields onFHA mortgages ® 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans © (Percent) (Percent) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 109. Average prime rate charged by banks © 66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (Percent) (Mil. dot.) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Commercial and industrial loans outstanding 72. Current dollars (Mil. dol.) 101. Constant (1972) dollars (Mil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income (Percent) Revised1 1983 January February March 12.04 12.11 11.81 10.37 10.60 10.34 9.50 9.58 9.20 12.87 12.65 12.68 lo!2O 11.16 10.98 10.50 330,217 331,987 335,322 268,553 268,394 269,309 106,653 106,253 106,699 12.06 12.09 12.13 April May June 10.19 10.21 10.64 9.05 9.11 9.52 12.50 12.41 12.96 loisi 10.50 10.50 .... 11.58 11.24 11.90 10.50 338,137 341,085 345,025 265,470 261,638 261,890 105,178 103,373 103,147 12.16 12.14 12 21 July . . . . August September 12.46 12.89 12.68 11.10 11.42 11.26 9.53 9.72 9.58 14.23 13.78 13.55 ll!69 10.50 10.89 11.00 349,482 354,022 357,745 261,618 262,789 262,747 102,756 102,732 102,515 12.30 12.44 12.47 October November December 12.54 12.86 12.87 11.21 11.32 11.44 9.66 9.75 9.89 13.23 13.23 13.25 10^95 11.00 11.00 11.00 363,883 369,635 376,006 261,999 263,537 267,979 101,985 102,743 104,272 12.51 12.60 12.70 12.65 12.80 13.36 11.29 11.44 11.90 9.63 9.64 9.93 13.08 13.20 13.68 ll!66 11.00 11.00 11.21 381,273 387,461 393,390 267,992 272,651 281,834 103,632 105,108 107,941 12.69 12.75 12.87 13.64 14.41 0)14.49 12.17 12.89 0)13.00 9.96 10.49 12*45 0)10.67 11.93 12.39 12.60 400,182 409,275 416,357 289,095 295,920 303,692 110,595 113,163 116,179 13.02 13.29 13.44 September 14.25 13.54 13.37 12.82 12.23 11.97 10.42 9.99 10.10 14.58 14.21 13.99 0)13^29 13.00 E>13.00 12.97 422,838 428,860 433,842 306,883 308,206 311,769 117,176 118,132 120,050 13.53 13.64 13.71 October November December 13.02 12.40 12.47 11.66 11.25 11.21 10.25 10.17 9.95 13.43 12.90 12.99 11.29 12.58 11.77 11.06 439,473 445,553 452,372 316,143 320,975 321,650 121,687 123,215 123,664 13.88 13.99 14.10 January February March 12.46 12.39 12 85 11.15 11.35 11 78 9.51 9.65 9 77 13.01 13.27 13 43 io!io 10.61 10.50 10 50 459,595 468,636 476 978 324,896 326,676 329 363 125,008 125,887 127 118 14.29 14.43 1A fid. April May June 12.45 11.85 11.33 11.42 10.96 10.36 9.42 9.01 8.69 12.97 12.28 11.89 9^90 10.50 10.31 9.78 485,248 494,290 499,517 330,589 333,281 328,820 127,296 128,136 126,664 14.76 15.11 15.23 July August September 11.28 11.61 11.66 10.51 10,59 10.67 8.81 9.08 9.27 12.12 11.99 12.04 9.27 9.50 9.50 9.50 505,764 r511,490 r523,021 330,784 r330,721 r329,703 127,519 rl28,236 rl28,389 15.37 15.52 15.80 11.51 11.17 2 10.49 10.56 10.08 2 9.69 9.08 8.54 3 8.45 11.87 11.28 0)529,649 r335,879 (NA) 0>p341,797 rl29,884 0)pl31,46O 0)P15.92 (NA) 1984 January February March April May June July August 13.80 0)15.01 14.91 1985 October . . . . . . . . . November December 9^31 9.50 9.50 "9.50 • See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35. 1 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 'Average for weeks ended December 6, 13, and 20. 3 Average for weeks ended December 5, 12, and 17. "•Average for December 1 through 26, DECEMBER 1985 73 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE DIFFUSION INDEXES Year and month 950. Twelve leading indicator components (series 1,5,8, 12,19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99, 106, 111) 1-month span 6-month span 951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (series 41, 47, 51, 57) 1-month span 952. Six lagging indicator components (series 62,77, 91,95, 101, 109) 6-month span 1-month span 6-month span 961. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing industries 1-month 9-month span 962. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, 51 areasl 1-month span 9-month span 963. Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 186 industries 1-month span 6-month span 1983 January February . . . March 75.0 70.8 66.7 100.0 100.0 100.0, 100.0 25.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 33.3 50.0 25.0 16.7 16.7 16.7 82.5 15.0 100.0 90.0 90.0 87.5 68.6 57.8 35.3 98.0 96.1 100.0 52.2 45.9 59.7 50.0 62.4 65.7 April May June 87.5 70.8 87,5 91.7 100.0 91.7 87.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 25.0 8.3 25.0 16.7 16.7 33.3 95.0 52.5 92.5 95.0 90.0 90.0 80.4 48.0 78.4 84.3 90.2 92,2 70.0 68.9 63.0 67.8 74.3 78.4 July August . . . . September . . 62.5 62.5 66.7 91. 83. 66. 75.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 58, 58, 16. 33.3 41.7 66.7 77. 67. 87. 95.0 95.0 9.5.0 70.6 7.8 96.1 88.2 94.1 80.4 72.7 69.5 73.2 79. 79, 78.9 October . . . . November . . December , . 75.0 45.8 62.5 83. 83. 79.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 41. 58, .75.0 66.7 66.7 66.7 52, 42. 50.0 100.0 87.5 95.0 58.8 35.3 60.8 84.3 86.3 68.6 74.1 66.8 68.9 79.2 79.7 78.4 January . February March . . 58.3 70.8 50.0 75.0 70.8 62.5 100.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 8.3 75.0 75.0 66.7 66.7 75.0 70.0 82.5 10.0 80.0 42.5 37.5 36. 3 72, 5 68, 6 76.5 90.2 56.9 67.3 72.7 66.8 79.2 77.8 77.3 April . May . June . 58.3 41.7 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 83.3 66.7 66.7 83.3 83.3 83.3 95.0 2.5 30.0 27.5 47.5 15.0 43.1 29.4 92.2 66.7 70.6 38.2 67.3 60, 64, 75.4 July August September . . , 16.7 37.5 75.0 25.0 33.3 29.2 75.0 87.5 50.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 83.3 75.0 66.7 83. 66, 66. 37.5 45.0 72.5 10.0 45.0 7.5 19.6 51.0 74.5 27.5 37.3 13.7 65, 58, 48, 63.2 64.1 67.0 October November . . . December . . . 33.3 70.8 41.7 66,7 50.0 53.0 62.5 100.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 58, 50. 66.7 66. 66. 58.3 25.0 57.5 62.5 5.0 27.5 17.5 7.8 70.6 72.5 33.3 15.7 31.4 66. 55, 63.5 59.7 57.6 60.3 70.8 50.0 41.7 58.3 50.0 50.0 50.0 100,0 r75.O 100.0 100.0 r75.0 66.7 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 66.7 32.5 . 5.0 85.0 40.0 32.5 40.0 13. 70, 84. 33.3 45.1 64.7 57.6 50.3 55.9 52.2 49.5 44.3 .37.5 70.8 .50.0 41.7 58.3 75.0 100.0 62.5 75.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 41.7 50.0 33.3 41.7 50.0 50.0 12.5 75.0 67.5 55.0 62.5 r62.5 r66.7 58.8 44.6 50.3 47.0 44.6 44.3 75.0 72.7 50,0 100,0 r50.0 75.0 3 100.0 1984 1985 January February March April May June July August September . . . 54.2 r75.0 r62.5 October November . . . December . . . 62.5 2 45.5 2 50.0 3 100.0 41, 41, 58.3 "25.0 75.0 30.0 87.5 r77.5 91.7 "37.5 r67.5 P37.5 P80.0 19.6 45.1 86.3 P68.6 r59.8 54.9 56.8 r45.7 P23.5 (NA) r63.0 p60.3 9.8 82.4 (NA) r42.4 r46.2 P50.0 NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components lising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter. Series are.seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ®, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 36. figures are the percent o£ components declining. Excludes series 36, for which data are not available. 3 Excludes series 57, for which data are not available. ''Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available. 74 DECEMBER 1985 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued 964. Manufacturers' new orders, 34 durable goods industries and month 1-month span 9-month span 966. Industrial production, 24 industries 965. Newly approved capital appropriations in 1972 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries 1-quarter span 4-Q moving average 1-month span 6-month span 967. Spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials © 1-month span 9-month span 968. Stock prices, 500 common s t o c k s 1 © 1-month span 9-mohth span 960. Net profits, manufacturing, about 600 companies1© (4-quarter span) 1983 January February March . . . : . . 72.1 57.4 61.8 88.2 82.4 85.3 45 April May June 79.4 63.2 69.1 86.8 88.2 91.2 53 July August September . . . 55.9 61.8 70.6 97.1 91.2 91.2 50 October November . . . December . . . 63.2 64.7 58.8 97.1 94.1 91.2 59 January February March 67.6 50.0 52.9 91.2 79.4 85.3 71 April May June 35.3 58.8 26.5 75.0 52.9 41.2 59 July August September . . . 55.9 51.5 41.2 44.1 61.8 52.9 36 October November . . . December . . . 55.9 55.9 52.9 29.4 55.9 44.1 65 January February March 52.9 35.3 55.9 45.6 63.2 52.9 56 April May . . . . . . . June . . . . . . . 47.1 60.3 61.8 64.7 54.4 r50.0 July August September . . . 55.9 55.9 45,6 p70.6 83.3 91.7 95.8 61.5 76.9 57.7 80.8 61.5 57.7 63.3 59.2 73.5 100.0 98.0 93.9 71 56 83.3 62.5 66.7 83.3 95.8 100.0 65.4 46.2 46.2 80.8 96.2 88.5 81.6 91.8 65.3 89.8 87.5 86.5 74 52 79.2 77.1 70.8 95.8 75.0 91.7 95.8 95.8 89.6 57.7 73.1 57.7 88.5 80.8 73.1 52.0 30.6 85.4 91.5 80.9 72.3 82 59 95.8 91.7 91.7 69.2 76.9 42.3 80.8 80.8 73.1 47.9 57.4 61:7 38.3 40.4 34.0 81 60 60.4 58.3 58.3 95.8 91.7 87.5 38.5 61.5 65.4 73.1 65.4 42.3 52.1 10.6 60.6 41.5 25,5 58.7 76 56 87 91 64 83.3 66.7 70.8 50.0 50.0 42.3 34.6 30.8 30.8 43.6 36.2 36.2 30.4 37.0 37.0 76 58 66.7 43.8 66.7 66, 62, 50.0 34.6 46.2 46.2 23.1 15.4 15.4 34.8 93.5 73.9 60.9 54.3 65.2 68 54 79.2 43.8 45.8 45.8 30.8 57.7 19.2 15.4 19.2 34.6 34.8 78.3 26.1 82, 82, 91.3 68 r49 47.9 62.5 41.7 58.3 62. 66, 23.1 38.5 57.7 23.1 23.1 23.1 89.1 93.5 41.3 77.8 73.3 85.6 70 p53 50.0 52.1 66.7 r39 45.8 72.9 56.3 62.5 75.0 r62.5 76.9 38.5 23.1 23.1 38.5 46.2 57.6 66.7 75.6 77.8 82.2 73.3 p53 54.2 r75,0 r45.8 r58.3 p54.2 38.5 46.2 46.2 38.5 46.2 76.7 30.0 11.1 75.6 1984 1985 October November . . December . . r57.4 p55.9 45.8 P64.6 42.3 23.1 3 42.3 3 55.6' 88.9 See note on page 74. Graphs of these series are shown on page 37. x Based on 49 industries through August 1983, on 48 industries through October 1983, on 47 industries through June 1984, on 46 industries through April 1985? and on 45 industries thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the source. 2 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc. 3 Based on average for December 3, 10, and 17. DECEMBER 1985 75 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Q j 970. Expenditures tor new plant and equipment Year by U.S. nonfarm business, 21 industries DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued 971. New orders, manufacturing1© 972. Net profits, manufacturing and trade' © Actual Actual 973. Net sales, manufacturing and trade' © and quarter a. Actual expenditures c. Early projections b. Later projections (4-Q span) (1-Q span) (1-Q span) (1-Q spiin) Anticipated (4-Q span) (4-Q span) Actual Anticipated Anticipated (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 1983 .... 38.1 50.0 81,0 95,2 First quarter . . . Second quarter . . . . Third quarter . . . . . Fourth quarter 88.1 71.4 8 8 . .1 61.9 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... 47. 6 42 .9 66 66 62 64 66 68 66. 7 90. 5 54 . 8 76 . 2 74 78 77 82 66 71 73 80 74 74 78 84 81. 0 76 .2 84 85 74 81 80 86 1984 76. 2 57 .1 90 88 80 84 85 88 64. 3 76. 2 71. 4 78 . 6 92 . 9 54 . 8 86 84 79 91 90 88 79 74 74 86 88 84 84 82 80 90 90 88 52. 76. 61. 47. 47 . 6 85 . 7 76 . 2 42 . 9 74 74 76 82 84 82 80 70 69 70 80 81 81 78 76 74 75 84 84 84 81 1985 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 57.1 73.8 61.9 . . . 4 2 9 6 1986 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 47 .6 82 78 81 .... .... 1 fl Year and quarter 974. Number of employees, manufacturing and tode1 © 975. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade 1 © Actual Actual Anticipated (4-Q span) (4-Q span) Anticipated DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued 977. Selling prices, wholesale 976. Selling prices, manufacturing1 © trade1© Actual Actual Anticipated Anticipated 978. Selling prices, retail trade1© Actual Anticipated (4-Q span) (4-Q span) {4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) t53 68 64 68 72 68 72 69 72 69 67 70 71 72 76 75 72 72 68 70 70 70 74 74 68 68 66 66 60 66 63 66 65 70 67 62 (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 1983 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 48 54 58 61 50 56 59 60 54 59 62 68 52 58 62 64 61 60 65 68 65 66 70 69 65 63 62 62 62 64 64 62 72 70 70 70 66 70 70 66 74 70 70 68 74 76 76 72 60 58 58 60 62 59 58 66 63 60 64 66 62 58 65 62 61 70 70 64 62 (52 t58 '0 1984 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... ?3 (59 (55 (55 1985 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... { 54 i50 i59 1986 59 First quarter Second quarter 58 62 64 62 .... Third quarter Fourth quarter , . . . NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated b y © , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 38. 1 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc. Dun § Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives. 76 DECEMBER 1985 CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE-Continued SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change Diffusion index components 1985 April May June August July September October November 961. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS OF PRODUCTION OR NONSUPERVISORY WORKERS, MANUFACTURING ' (Hours) All manufacturing industries 40.2 40.4 40.4 40.3 40.6 40.7 40.7 40.7 Percent rising of 20 components . (12) (75) (68) (30) (88) (78) (68) (38) 39.5 39.3 39.8 33.9 40.1 38.9 39.7 38.8 40.0 39.2 40.1 r39.4 40.3 39.3 40.0 39.3 Stone, clay, and glass products. Primary metal industries 42.0 41.0 42.1 41.2 41.9 41.6 42.0 41.4 42.0 41.7 42.0 41.5 42.2 41.8 41.7 42.0 Fabricated metal products Machinery, except electrical 41.1 41.2 41.1 41.4 41.3 41.6 41.3 41.3 41.4 41.6 r41.6 41.6 41.5 41.6 41.3 41.5 Electric and electronic equipment Transportation equipment 40.2 42.3 40.4 42.6 40.6 42.3 40.3 42.5 40.7 42.9 40.5 r42.9 40.6 42.8 40.8 42.6 Instruments and related products . Miscellaneous manufacturing 40.7 39.0 40.9 39.3 41.1 39.4 40.7 39.0 40.7 39.3 40.9 39.8 40.8 39.9 41.2 39.6 Food and kindred products Tobacco manufacturers 39.6 35.4 40.1 37.0 39.6 36.6 40.0 34.6 39.9 36.8 40.2 r36.9 40.3 38.3 39.8 36.4 Textile mill products .-. Apparel and other textile products 38.8 35.6 38.9 36.2 39.4 36.3 39.1 36.3 40.0 36.4 r40.7 r36.5 40.7 36.6 41.2 36.8 Paper and allied products. Printing and publishing ... 43.0 37.6 43.0 37.4 42.9 37.5 42.7 37.5 43.0 37.9 43.1 r38.0 43.2 37.9 43.1 37.8 Chemicals and allied products . Petroleum and coal products .. 41.9 42.0 41.9 41.7 42.0 42.6 41.8 42.9 41.8 43.3 r41.6 43.4 41.8 44.0 41.8 42.9 Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products Leather and leather products 40.9 37.0 40.9 37.1 41.2 37.0 40.6 37.0 40.7 37.3 41.1 r37.8 41.1 37.9 41.1 38.1 Durable goods industries: Lumber and wood products ' Furniture and fixtures Nondurable goods industries: 964. MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES ' (Millions of dollars) All durable goods industries Percent rising of 34 components . 99,839 + 102,971 + 106,780 - 104,370 + 107,661 - 106,641 - 104,495 + 105,436 (47) (60) (62) (56) (56) (46) (57) (56) Primary metals Fabricated metal products... 11,169 13,457 + 10,559 13,593 + - 10,736 13,426 + 10,604 14,206 + + 11,038 14,560 - 10,212 14,356 + + 10,749 14,837 + 10,464 15,212 Machinery, except electrical . Electrical machinery 17,002 14,378 + + 17,332 14,947 + + 17,822 16,200 - 17,766 15,189 + - 17,812 14,685 + 17,370 16,856 - 16,718 15,820 + + 18,174 16,803 Transportation equipment Other durable goods industries 23,975 19,858 + + 26,416 20,124 + + 28,300 20,296 - 26,730 19,875 + - 29,861 19,705 + 28,080 19,767 + 26,503 19,868 + 24,726 20,057 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. x Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 2 Data for most of the diffusion index components are not available for publication, but they are included in the totals and directions of change for the six major industry groups shown here. DECEMBER 1985 77 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Continued 1985 Diffusion index components April May June July August September October r November^ 966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (1977 = 100) All industrial production Percent rising of 24 components 2 124.1 o (46) 124.3 124.1 125.2 125.0 124.6 125.1 (73) (56) (54) (75) (46) (46) (66) (NA) (NA) (NA) 124.1 + Durable manufactures: Lumber and products... Furniture and fixtures .. 110.9 141.0 + + 112.2 142.0 113.5 141.9 113.0 145.3 + - 114.8 144.3 115.9 144.2 - 143.4 Clay, glass, and stone products Primary metals 114.5 81.4 + 116.3 76.4 116.1 78.3 115.1 79.0 + + 116.2 82.0 116.7 80.3 + 115.6 83.2 + (NA) 84.7 Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery,.. 109.1 148.9 + 108.3 149.1 107.4 145.6 107.3 147.5 + + 107.8 149.2 107.5 147.4 + - 108.0 144.6 + + 108.2 144.8 Electrical machinery Transportation equipment 168.9 120.7 + + 169.3 120.9 169.5 121.8 165.7 123.7 + + 166.1 126.8 165.1 126.2 + - 165.5 123.5 + + 166.3 126.7 Instruments Miscellaneous manufactures .. 138.5 98.3 139.9 98.3 140.7 96.8 141.1 95.9 + + 141.8 97.2 138.9 96.4 + 138.0 97.5 + 139.4 (NA) 132.6 97.7 132.8 97.8 - 132.0 97.6 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) Nondurable manufactures: Foods Tobacco products . 130.8 98.4 + 131.4 95.7 131.8 98.9 132.2 96.0 Textile mill products Apparel products 99.0 100.2 + + 100,0 100.3 103.3 99.2 104.1 100.6 + - 106.3 100.4 + + 106.7 101.8 + 106.0 102.3 Paper and products Printing and publishing 125.1 154.2 + 1244 155.4 127.1 156.7 129.0 154.3 + 127.5 156.3 + - 128.6 155.9 + 128.0 156.3 Chemicals and products .. Petroleum products 125.8 87.3 126.7 87.4 126.4 87.1 126.4 88.3 + 128.2 88.2 + 129.5 85.9 o + 129.5 88.3 (NA) 88.6 Rubber and plastics products Leather and products 144.9 69.9 144.3 71.0 145.5 71.5 145.6 72.2 + + 148.0 72.7 + + 148.6 73.3 o + 148.6 71.5 (NA) (NA) Metal mining ., Coal 81.2 128.5 + 78.3 128.7 77.5 134.0 60.9 128.0 73.1 127.7 71.4 126.3 + - 73.1 118.9 Oil and gas extraction Stone and earth minerals , 106.5 118.5 + + 106.9 118.7 106.9 117.9 106.9 116.6 105.5 117.7 + 105.1 117.9 + (NA) 156.5 Mining: NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: preliminary; and "NA", not available. ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) - falling. + 104.2 118.1 (NA) 123.0 102.6 (NA) The "r" indicates revised; "p", 1 Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. 2 78 DECEMBER 1985 ito CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Q SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX. COMPONENTS: BasicData and Directions of Change-Continued 1985 Diffusion index components April May June August July September October November December1 - - - o 967. INDEX OF SPOT MARKET PRICES, RAW INDUSTRIALS 2 Raw industrials price index (1967 = 100) . . . . + 257.1 - - 242.9 - 240.7 - 239.8 (46) (38) (23) (38) (77) Percent rising of 13 components 252.0 238.0 236.9 234,5 (42) (46) 234.4 (42) (23) Dollars (pound).. (kilogram).. + 0.479 1.056 - 0.475 1.047 - 0.471 1.038 - 0.460 1.014 - 0.445 0.981 + 0.450 0.992 + 0.457 1.008 - 0.454 1.001 (pound).. . (kilogram).. + 0.114 0.251 + 0.120 0.265 - 0.112 0.247 - 0.109 0.240 + 0.112 0.247 - 0.111 0.245 o 0.111 0.245 - 0.108 0.238 o 0.108 0.238 ; . . (U.S. ton).. (metric ton).. - 85.600 94.357 - 73.000 80.468 - 70.500 77.712 + 74.000 81.570 + 80.500 88.735 + 80.750 89.011 - 77.600 85.538 - 77.000 84.877 + 78.000 85.979 Tin (pound) (kilogram).. •+ 5.528 12.187 + 5.545 12.225 + 5.650 12.456 + 5.848 12.893 - 5.835 12.864 - 5.698 12.562 - 5.684 12.531 - Zinc (pound)., (kilogram).. + 0.474 1.045 + 0.475 1.047 - 0.466 1.027 - 0.426 0.939 - 0.414 0.913 - 0.406 0.895 - 0,384 0.847 Burlap (yard)., (meter).. + 0.362 0.396 - 0.358 0.392 - 0.323 0.353 - 0.306 0.335 - 0.289 0.316 - 0.261 0.285 - Cotton (pound) (kilogram).. + 0.632 1.393 - 0.614 1.354 - 0.610 1.345 - 0.608 1.340 - 0.592 1.305 . - 0.579 1.276 Print cloth (yard)., (meter).. - 0.642 0.702 - 0.610 0.667 - 0.600 0.656 o 0.600 0.656 + 0.602 0.658 + Wool tops (pound).. (kilogram).. - 3.140 6.92.2 - 3.000 6.614 o 3.000 6.614 o 3.000 6.614 o 3.000 6.614 Hides (pound) (kilogram).. + 0.645 1.422 + 0.674 1.486 - 0.634 1.398. + 0.639 1.409 + 0.656 1.446 ...; Copper scrap Lead scrap : Steel scrap Rosin • Rubber .Tallow + 0.473 1.043 5.640 12.434 o 3 5.640 12.434 - 0.354 0.780 o 0,354 0.780 0.248 0.271 - 0.246 0.269 - 0.238 0.260 - 0.573 1.263 - 0.571 1.259 - 0.568 1.252 0.635 0.694 + 0.675 0.738 + 0.710 0.776 + 0.717 0.784 o 3.000 6.614 o 3.000 6.614 o 3.000 6.614 o 3.000 6.614 + 0.675 1.488 + 0.677 1.493 + 0.726 1.601 - 0.717 1.581 3 (100 pounds).. (100 kilograms).. + 47.600 104.939 + 50.000 110.230 o 50.000 110.230 o 50.000 110.230 o 50.000 110.230 o 50.000 110.230 o 50.000 110.230 o 50.000 110.230 o 50.000 110.230 (pound).. (kilogram)... + 0.417 0.919 - 0.408 0.899 + 0.416 0.917 o 0.416 0.917 + 0.422 0.930 + 0.432 0.952 - 0.429 0.946 - 0.422 0.930 - 0,403 0.888 .(pound).. (kilogram).. + - 0.192 0.423 - - 0.154 0.340 - 0.144 0.317 - 0.142 0.313 + 0.143 0.315 - 0.134 0.295 - 0.133 0.293 0.208 0.459 0.165 0.364 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-tq-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: '{ + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( — ) ' - falling. preliminary; and "NA", not available. The "r" indicates revised: "p", l The index is the average for December 1 through 19; component prices are averages for December 3, 10, and 17. Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau/ Inc. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 3 Last official price (October 23). 2 ItUI DECEMBER 1985 79 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES I A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ^ J 217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars 200. Grots national product in current dollars Year GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME and quarter b. Difference a. Total (Ann. (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) rate, bil. <tol.) Revised1' 1982 First quarter . . . . . . . Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter Revised 1 b. Difference a. Total c. Percent change at annual rate Revised 1 (Ann. rate, bil. dot.) (Ann, rate, bil. dol.) Revised 1 Revised 1 c. Percent change at annual rate Revised 1 213. Final sales in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, dollars) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised 1 Revised 1 3,112.6 3,159.5 3,.179.4 3,212.5 -1.8 46.9 19.9 33.1 -0.2 6.2 2.5 4.2 3,170.4 3,179.9 3,154.5 3,159.3 -48.6 9.5 -25.4 4.8 -5.9 1.2 -3.2 0.6 13.694 13,704 13,558 13,544 3,194.4 3,185.3 3,164.0 3,218.6 3,268.7 3,355.1 3,437.5 3,535.0 56.2 96.4 72.4 97.5 7.2 12.3 8.9 11.8 3.190.6 3,259.3 3,293.4 3,357.2 31.3 68.7 34.1 63.8 4.0 8.9 4.3 8.0 13,648 13,913 14,023 14,260 3,232.8 3,263.0 3,292.0 3,334.6 3,676.5 3,757.5 3,812.2 3,85;i.5 141.5 81.0 54.7 40.3 17.0 9.1 6.0 4.3 3,449.4 3,492.6 3.510.4 3,515.6 92.2 43.2 17.8 5.2 11.4 5.1 2.1 0.6 14,621 14,773 14,812 14,797 3,365.7 3,426.6 3,445.5 3,479.5 3,917.5 3,960.6 4,016,9 2 4,075,5 65.0 43.1 56.3 2 58.6 6.9 4.5 5.8 2 6.0 3,547.8 3,557.4 3.584.1 2 3.612.7 32.2 9.6 26.7 2 28.6 3.7 1.1 3.0 2 3.-2 14,903 14,916 14,988 3,532.0 3,542.3 3,585.8 1983 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 1984 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 1985 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... Q | 230. Total in current Disposable personal income Year and quarter dollars 224. Current dollars (Ann. 225. Constant (1982) dollars rate, bil. dol.) Revised 1 1982 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter ^ Q GNP AND PERSONAL fNCOME—Continued .... .... PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES 231. Total in 1982 dollars 232. Durable goods in current dollars 2 33. Durable goods in 1982 dollars 227. Per capita in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, dollars) Revised 1 Revised 1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. bil. dol.) Revised 1 Revised 1 Revised 1 (Ann. rate, rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised 1 2,207.2 2,241.8 2,278.6 2,318.1 2,245.7 2,260.9 2.263.4 2,276.1 9,700 9,743 9,728 9.758 1,996.3 2,023.8 2,065.6 2,117.0 2,031.2 2,041.0 2,051.8 2,078.7 245.1 248.9 252.8 263.8 247.7 249.1 251.8 262.0 2,345.5 2,387.7 2,447.9 2,520.4 2,291.3 2,309.0 2,346.9 2,391.3 9,802 9,856 9,993 10,157 2,146.0 2,210.1 2,254.9 2,306.3 2,096.4 2,137.2 2,161.8 2,188.1 268.5 285.3 295.3 309.4 264.9 280.8 288.5 300.0 2,610.2 2,649.9 2,696.7 2,723.8 2,446.8 2,461.8 2,480.5 2.484.4 10,371 10,413 10,466 10,457 2,358.6 2,414.4 2,439.0 2,480.1 2,210.9 2,243.0 2,243.4 2,262.0 321.6 330.2 331.1 341.5 311.0 317.7 318.0 327.6 2,739.2 2.817.7 2.800.2 2,482.7 2,532.2 2,503.1 10.429 10,617 10,468 2.525.0 2,563.3 2,606.1 2,288.6 2,303.5 2.329.6 351.5 356.5 376.0 335.0 340.3 359.3 1983 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 1984 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 1985 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for thoss, indicated by © , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 4 1 . 1 2 M See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page i i i . "Flash estimate. DECEMBER 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Q Year and quarter 1982 236. Nondurable goods in current dollars PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES—Continued 238. Nondurable goods in 1982 dollars 237. Services in current dollars Q j 239. Services in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bit. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised 1 Revised 1 Revised 1 Revised 1 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 240. Total in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 241. Total in 1982 dollars 242. Fixed investment in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised1 Revised 1 243. Fixed investment in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised 1 Revised 1 758.1 762.6 776.7 786.6 764.2 768.3 772.8 778.6 993.1 1,012.2 1,036.1 1,066.5 1,019.2 1,023.5 1,027.2 1,038.1 459.5 467.8 452.2 409.6 464.2 467.5 448.6 408.8 483.6 472.9 461.2 469.5 488.2 473.0 458.1 468.1 792.4 811.7 826.5 837.2 787.0 796.8 806.8 812.0 1,085.2 1,113.0 1,133.1 1,159.6 L,044.5 1,059.7 1,066.5 ]L,076.1 425.0 483.7 521.2 577.6 422.5 489.0 526.3 575.9 467.7 489.2 524.0 552.1 464.7 492.7 524.9 553.2 856.6 873.2 876.6 883.1 819.4 832.8 831.2 828.6 1,180.4 1,211.1 1,231.3 1,255.4 L,080.5 L,092.6 L,094.3 L,105.8 658.8 673.3 687.9 676.2 649.0 662.9 673.3 659.9 566.7 604.5 619.5 637.2 565.4 596.8 608.4 623.8 895.7 910.2 914.5 839.9 846.7 849.8 1,277.8 1,296.6 1,315.6 1,113.7 1,116.5 1,120.4 657.6 672.8 666.1 639.6 655.6 645.0 639.1 657.3 665.9 623.8 640.5 646.8 1983 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1984 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1985 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 01 ( • • GROSS PRIVATE I t i f l DOMESTIC INVEST.—Con. Year and quarter 1982 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES 245. Change in business inventories in current dollars 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars 260. Total in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised 1 Revised 1 Revised1 Revised1 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 261. Total in 1982 dollars 262. Federal Government in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 263. Federal Government in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 266. State and local government in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised1 Revised1 Revised1 267. State and local government in 1982 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised1 -24.1 -5.0 -9.0 -59.9 -24.0 -5.4 -9.4 -59.3 622.1 625.7 647.1 671.8 634.6 629.7 642.5 660.1 262.9 259.3 275.3 293.2 267.0 260.5 273.8 289.5 359.2 366.4 371.8 378.7 367.7 369.2 368.6 370.6 -42.7 -5.5 -2.8 25.5 -42.2 -3.7 1.4 22.6 669.3 673.8 681.1 678.6 649.1 648.2 651.5 642.2 287.1 287.0 286.0 279.2 279.2 277.6 277.4 267.9 382.2 386.9 395.1 399.4 369.9 370.6 374.1 374.3 92.1 68.9 68.3 39.0 83.6 66.0 64.9 36.1 696.5 735.1 747.3 768.4 650.1 677.1 682.4 693.9 285.6 314.8 318.5 332.9 271.4 294.8 296.7 307.3 410.9 420.3 428.8 435.5 378.6 382.4 385.7 386.6 18.5 15.5 0.2 15.8 15.1 -1.8 777.2 794.8 832.5 691.4 699.4 729.2 334.4 337.8 364.8 304.3 305.9 331.1 442.8 457.1 467.7 387.1 393.6 398.1 1983 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1984 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1985 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 4 1 , 42, and 43. x See "New Features and Changes for This Issue, DECEMBER 1985 page in. 81 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued £ g 1982 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... 252. Current dollars 255. Constant (1982) dollars 250. Current dollars NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS 280. Compensation of^, employees 257. Constant (1982) dollars 253. Current dollars 256. Constant (1982) dollars M H I 220. National income in current dollars Imports of goods and services Exports of goods and services Net exports of goods and services Year and quarter FOREIGN TRADE (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised 2 Revised 2 Revised 2 Revised 2 374.1 378.5 359.5 336.0 338.4 336.8 345.4 321.9 333.7 336.8 347.8 324.3 2,483.1 2,514.0 2,528.4 2,548.2 1,879.2 1,899.3 1,918.4 1,931.1 344.6 345.0 358.0 368.8 342.8 342.4 352.8 359.1 316.2 347.5 377.6 396.2 320.3 357.4 399.1 408.0 2,603.6 2,678.9 2,747.4 2,843.5 1,962.4 2,001.5 2,041.8 2,097,6 -60.6 -90.4 -88.7 -100.2 375.4 382.3 391.4 389.5 362.7 366.6, 376.9 377.3 412.8 447.6 453.3 461.7 423.3 457.0 465.6 477.5 2,967.7 3,021.1 3,064.2 3,104.4 2,160.9 2,204.8 2,241.2 2,27*8.5 -71.8 -101.1 -119.8 379.6 369.2 363.2 368.7 358.2 353.5 421.9 439.5 451.0 440.5 459.3 473.3 3,155.3 3,192.2 3,228.0 2,320.4 2,356.9 2,385.2 (Ann. rate, bil. dol) {Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) {Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised 2 Revised2 Revised 2 Revised 2 34.7 42.1 14.5 14.1 40.4 41.7 11.7 11.7 373.0 378.9 359.9 335.9 28,4 -2.6 -19.7 -27.4 22.5 -15.0 -46.3 -48.9 -37.4 -65.3 -61.9 -72.2 -42.3 -70.3 -87.8 . 1983 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 1984 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 1985 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... E 282. Proprietors* income with IVA and CCAdjl Year and quarter 1982 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 1 Q NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS—Continued 284. Rental income of persons with CCAdj1 SAVING 292. Personal saving 295. Business saving 286. Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj1 288. Net interest 290. Gross saving (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bit. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bit. dol.) Revised 2 Revised 2 Revised 2 Revised 2 Revised 2 Revised 2 Revised 2 166.2 173.0 174.6 188.3 14.8 11.9 12.0 15.8 149.9 149.6 154.3 146.1 273.0 280.2 269.1 266.9 471.6 483.4 443.1 387.4 392.6 399.4 409.6 411.1 155.0 161.7 156.0 143.1 185.9 187.3 188.8 207.1 13.3 14.8 11.9 11.0 173.4 205.9 228.4 247.6 268.5 269.4 276.4 280.3 430.0 451.2 478.5 519.8 439.6 458.6 476.5 495.0 140.3 116.4 129.0 147.1 240.3 229.1 232.3 232.9 11.6 11.9 10.0 9.7 268.0 277.8 271.2 276.2 286.9 297.6 309.5 307.0 590.5 581.3 592.8 573.5 502.7 516.0 527.4 535.9 181.6 162.6 181.5 164.5 239.4 240.9 237.5 11.0 13.8 14.5 281.7 288.1 309.1 302.9 292.4 281.8 578.3 571.7 537.3 546.8 556.4 579.2 130.9 167.2 102.6 1983 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 1984 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 1985 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46. *IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 2 82 DECEMBER 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Q SAVING—Continued 298. Government surplus or deficit Year and Q | 293. Personal Percent of gross national product saving rate quarter 235. Personal con- 248. Nonresidential sumption expendi- fixed investment 249. Residential fixed investment 247. Change in business inventories bil. dol.) Revised (Percent) percent). (Percent) (Percent) 3 Revised2 Revised 2 Revised 2 Revised 2 (Percent) (Percent) 2 2 Revised 1982 First quarter Second quarter .... Third quarter Fourth quarter 251. Net exports of goods and services tures (Ann. rate, Revised SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME -76.0 -77.7 -122.5 -166.8 7.0 7.2 6.8 6.2 64.1 64.1 65.0 65.9 12.3 11.7 11.3 11.0 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.6 -0.8 -0.2 -0.3 -1.9 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.4 -150.0 -123.8 -127.0 -122.2 6,0 4.9 5.3 5.8 65.7 65.7 65.6 65.2 10.3 10.2 10.4 10.9 4.0 4.3 4.8 4.7 -1.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.7 0.9 -0.1 -0.6 -0.8 -93.8 -97.3 -116.0 -126.8 7.0 6.1 6.7 6.0 64.2 64.3 64.0 64.4 10.7 11.3 11.4 11.9 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.6 2.5 1.8 1.8 1.0 -1.0 -1.7 -1.6 -1.9 -99.4 -151.9 -144.5 4.8 5.9 3.7 64.5 64.7 64.9 11.7 12.0 11.9 4.6 4.6 4.7 0.5 0.4 0.0 -1.1 -1.8 -2.2 1983 First quarter Second quarter . Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 1984 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 1985 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... , .... 0 Year SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME—Continued Percent of national income Percent of GNP—Continued and quarter ,265. Federal Govern- 268. State and local ment purchases of government purchases goods and services of goods and services 283. Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj1 285. Rental income of persons with CCAdj' 287. Corporate profits 289. Net interest before tax with IVA and CCAdj1 (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) Revised2 Revised2 Revised 2 Revised 2 Revised 2 Revised2 Revised 2 8.4 8.2 8.7 9.1 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 75.7 75.5 75.9 75.8 6.7 6.9 6.9 7.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 6.0 6.0 6.1 5.7 11.0 11.1 10.6 10.5 8.8 8.5 8.3 7.9 11.7 11.5 11.5 11.3 75.4 74.7 74.3 73.8 7.1 7.0 6.9 7.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 6.7 7.7 8.3 8.7 10.3 10.1 10.1 9.9 7.8 8.4 8.4 8.6 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.3 72.8 73.0 73.1 73.4 8.1 7.6 7.6 7.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 9.0 9.2 8.9 8,9 9.7 9.9 10.1 9.9 8.5 8.5 9.1 11.3 11.5 11.6 73.5 73.8 73.9 7.6 7.5 7.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 8.9 9.0 9.6 9.6 9.2 8.7 (Percent) ; 64. Compensation of employees (Percent) 1982 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... 1983 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 1984 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... 1985 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .... .... See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47. ^VA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 2 DECEMBER 1985 83 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY ^ J Implicit price deflator for gross national product Year and month 310. Index 310c. Change over 1-quarter spans1 PRICE MOVEMENTS Consumer price index for all urban consumers Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product 311. Index 311c. Change over l-quarter spans' (1982=100) (Ann. rate, percent) (1982=100) (Ann. rate, percent) Revised2 Revised2 Revised2 Revised2 320. Index @ (1967 = 100) 320c. Change over 1-month spans1 (Percent) Consumer price index for all urban consumers, food 320c. Change over 6-month spansl 322. Index (Ann, rate, percent) (1967-100) 322c. Change over 1-month spans' (Percent) 322c. Change over 6-month spans' (Ann. rate, percent) 1983 2.8 January . . . . . . . . . February March 102^4 April May June 103 .'£ 3.2 . 2.4 293.1 293.2 293.4 0.3 -0.1 0.1 1.4 2.3 3.4 288.5 288.9 290.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.4 2.8 2.2 3.6 295.5 297.1 298.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 3.6 4.4 5.0 291.3 292.1 291.5 0.4 0.3 -0.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 5.1 299.3 300.3 301.8 0.4 0.3 0.4 4.2 4.1 4.2 291.5 291.7 292.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 1.5 3.0 3.1 302.6 303.1 303.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 4.7 4.8 4 fi *T . O 293.8 294.3 295.9 0.4 0.2 n ^ u. 0 f. A U.H 4.2 305.2 306.6 307.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 4.8 4.5 4.3 299.9 302.0 301.9 1.4 0.7 0.0 5.4 4.6 3.8 4.6 308.8 " 309.7 310.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 3.6 3.7 3.8 301.6 301.0 301.5 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 1.8 1.5 1.7 3.8 311.7 313.0 314.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 302.6 304.2 304.4 0.4 0.5 0.1 2.5 3.3 3.8 3.0 315.3 315.3 315.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 3.4 3.3 3.5 305.4 305.9 307.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 3.4 3.4 3.2 2.6 316.1 317.4 318.8 0.2 0.3 0.5 3.7 3.8 3.7 307.7 309.3 309.2 0.2 0.5 0.0 2.2 1.6 0.8 3.3 320.1 321.3 322.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 3.7 3.4 308.7 308.3 308.5 -0.2 -0.1 n 1 U . X 0.7 -0.3 nR U. J 2.2 322.8 323.5 324.5 0.2 0.2 0,2 2.6 3.3 308.8 308.9 309.9 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.9 325.5 326.6 0.3 0.6 310.6 312.7 0.2 0.7 102." 6 103! 5 .. July August September loiii October November December . . 105^3 4.7 104.8 3.5 105^6 5.8 7.2 1984 January February March 106! 6 April May June 1O7.*6 July August September 108.'6 October November December 109.6 5.0 106.7 3.8 107 .*9 3.8 108^9 3.7 109^7 1985 January February March 110.4 April May June nils July . .' August September 112*1 October November December . . 3.0 Il6l4 3.3 11 i." 3 2.9 111:9 • 9 2.5 See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49. Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. a See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/' page iii. '"Flash" estimate. 84 DECEMBER 1985 BCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued M R 330. Index © (1967 = 100) 330c. Change over 1-month spans1© (Percent) Producer price index, crude materials for further processing Producer price index, industrial commodities Producer price index, all commodities Year and month PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued 330c. Change over 6-month spans' © (Ann. rate, percent) 335. Index © (1967 = 100) 335c. Change over 1-month spans1 © (Percent) 335c. Change over 6-mo nth spans'© (Ann: rate, percent) 331. Index (1967 = 100) 331c. Change over 1-month spans1 (Percent) 331c. Change over 6-month spans' (Ann. rate, percent) 1983 January February March 299.9 300.9 300.6 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.5 0.8 1.1 313.9 313.9 313.5 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 -1.2 -0.9 0.1 316.3 318.0 320.0 -0.5 0.5 0.6 4.1 1.5 2.1 April May June 300.6 301.5 302.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 2.2 2,5 3.2 312.4 313.6 315.3 -0.4 0.4 0.5 1.7 2.2 2.3 322.2 321.0 321.1 0.7 -0.4 0.0 1.1 4.8 6.1 July August September 303.2 304.7 305.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 3,6 2.7 2.5 316.5 317.3 317.1 0.4 0.3 -0.1 3.9 3.0 2.0 318.1 325.5 329.6 -0.9 2,3 1.3 4.7 5.4 7.9 October November December 306.0 305.5 306.1 0.2 -0.2 0.2 3.2 2.8 3.8 318.5 318.3 318.4 0.4 -0.1 0.0 1.6 2.1 3.1 329.7 329.5 333.5 0.0 -0.1 1.2 H.7 2.9 4.6 January February March 308.0 308.9 311.0 0.6 0.3 0.7 3.5 4.0 3.4 319.1 320.6 321.9 0.2 0.5 0.4 2.6 3.1 3.4 336.2 330.2 337.1 0.8 -1.8 2.1 3.5 1.8 -1.9 April May June 311.3 311.5 311.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 2.5 1.2 -1.1 322.6 323.2 323.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.0 1.7 0.2 335.4 332.5 330.4 -0.5 -0.9 -0.6 -2.9 -1.7 -5.6 July August September 311.9 310.7 309.3 0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -1.2 -0.8 -1.0 323.9 323.3 322.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.5 0.4 -0.5 331.3 327.4 327.6 0.3 -1.2 0.1 -6.4 -2.0 -1.1 October November December 309.4 310.3 309.8 0.0 0.3 -0.2 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 323.4 323.8 323.0 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.7 0.2 324.5 329.1 328.5 -0.9 1.4 -0.2 -5.7 -6.8 -9.9 January February March 309.5 309.1 308.6 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 322.9 322.2 322.5 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.1 321.7 316.0 311.0 -2.1 -1.8 -1.6 -10.3 -14.5 -14.7 April May . June 309.3 309.8 309.2 0.2 0.2 -0.2, -0.3 -1.2 -1.8 323,8 325.3 324.8 0.4 0.5 -0.2 0.9 0,9 0.0 307.4 304.3 303.4 -1.2 -1.0 -0,3 r-12.0 -13.2 -11,0 July . August September 309.0 307.2 305.8 -0.1 -0.6 -0.5 -0.8 -o.i r324.4 323,6 322.5 r-0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.4 -0.2 r301.8 294.4 293.4 r-0.5 r-2.5 -0.3 -3.2 4.6 October November December 308.0 309.7 0.7 0.6 324.4 325.0 0.6 0.2 302.5 311.2 3.1 2.9 1984 1985 See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 48. 1 Changes are centered within the spans: it<:n DECEMBER 1985 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. 85 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Q j Producer price index, intermediate materials, supplies, and components Year and month 332. Index (1967 = 100) 332c. Change over 1-month spans1 (Percent) PRICE MOVEMENTS—Continued Producer price index, capital equipment 332c. Change over 6-month spans' (Ann. rate, percent) 333. Index (1967 = 100) Producer price index, finished consumer goods 333c. Change over 6-month spans' 333c. Change over 1-month spans' 334.Index (Ann. rate, percent) (Percent) (1967 = 100) 334c. Change over 1-month spans: (Percent) 334c. Change over 6-month spans' (Ann. rate, percent) 1983 January February March 309.9 310.0 309.3 -0.4 0.0 -0.2 -1.0 284.1 285.0 285.8 -0.1 -0.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 2.6 2.3 1.8 283.4 283.3 282.9 -0.9 0.0 -0 1 -0.6 -1.0 -0 9 April May June 308.5 309.6 311.1 -0.3 0.4 0.5 1.4 2.1 3.8 285.9 286.3 286.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.3 2.4 1.8 282.8 283.6 284.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.3 July August September 312.1 313,2 315.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 4.9 4.1 3.4 287.3 288.4 288.4 0.1 0.4 0.0 2.2 2.0 2.0 284.5 285.5 286.1 -0.1 0.4 0.2 2.6 1.4 1.3 315.9 315.9 316.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 3.2 3.0 2.9 289.0 289.2 289.7 0.2 0.1 0.2 2.2 2.3 2.9 286.5 285.6 286.5 0.1 -0.3 0.3 3.0 2.8 3.6 January February March 317.1 317.9 319.6 0.2 0.3 0.5 2.7 3.2 3.2 290.5 291.7 292.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 3.7 3.2 3.1 288.8 289.5 291.2 0.8 0.2 0.6 3.1 3.5 2.7 April May June 320.1 320.9 321.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.4 1.5 0,3 294.3 293.8 294 1 0.6 -0.2 01 2.9 2.5 2 3 290.9 290.5 290 3 -0.1 -0.1 -0 1 1.5 0.4 -0 9 July . August September 320.9 320.3 320.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0 1 0.2 0.0 -0.5 294.7 295.3 295 8 0.2 0.2 0 2 0.5 1.4 0 6 291.0 290.1 289 9 0.2 -0.3 -0 1 -0.7 0.3 0.6 October November December 320.4 320.9 320.7 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.8 -0.9 295.1 295.9 295.0 289.9 290.9 291.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.8 0 3 3.1 3.0 3 9 290.6 290.3 290 5 -0.2 -0.1 01 1.4 1.0 0 3 0.0 3.1 2.0 0.2 291.9 292.4 291.6 0.5 0.2 -0.3 2.2 1.9 r292.5 291.3 289.7 -0.4 -0.5 292.0 294.9 0.8 1.0 October November December ....... 1984 -0.2 0.3 -0.3 1.1 2.2 2.5 , 1985 January February . March 320.4 319.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -0.6 OIO C -() ? -i 2 296.3 298.6 299 5 April May June 319.1 320.0 318.8 0.2 0.3 -0.4 -1.6 -1.1 -0.7 299.6 300.3 300,7 July . August September 317.8 317.3 317.4 -0.3 -0.2 00 -0.9 -0.9 300.9 301.6 299.8 -0.6 October November December 317.7 318.6 0.1 0.3 302.9 303.2 1.0 0.1 See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pafe 48. l Changes are centered within the spans: 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 • 0.3 rl.3 0.7 -0.6 0.1 1.7 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. DECEMBER 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued B WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagncuttural payrolls' Year and month Current-dollar earnings 340. Index (1977 = 100) 340c. Change over 1-month spans' (Percent) Average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector Current-dollar compensation Real earnings 340c. Change over 6-month spans' 341c. Change over 1-month spans* 341. Index (Ann. rate, percent) (1977=100) (Percent) 341c. Change over 6-month spans2 (Ann. rate, percent) 345. Index (1977 = 100) 345c. Change over 1-quarter spans2 345c. Change over 4-quarter spans2 (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 1983 152.9 153.6 153.6 0.5 0.5 0.0 4.4 4.7 3.9 94.8 95.3 95.1 0.3 0.5 -0.2 3.1 2.5 0,9 159.7 154.2 154.8 155.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 3.7 2.5 3.5 94.8 94.9 94.9 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 -1.8 -1.1 16l!6 155.7 155.5 156.3 0.4 -0.1 0.5 3.9 3.3 3.7 94.9 94.4 94.6 0.0 -0.5 0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.2 161'.9 157.2 157.3 157.9 0.6 0.1 0.4 3.8 4.3 3.8 94.9 94.8 95.0 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.0 1.0 1.2 163.7 158.6 158.7 159.2 0.4 0.1 0.3 3.7 3.3 3.2 94.9 94.9 95.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.5 0.5 165!9 160.1 159.9 160.5 0.5 -0.1 0.3 3.0 2.6 3.2 95.5 95.0 95.2 0.3 -0.5 0.2 0.7 -1.4 -1.8 167.4 July August September 161.0 160.8 161.7 0.4 -0.1 0.6 1.8 2.9 3.6 95.2 94.2 94.3 0.0 -1.1 0.1 -2.9 -1.1 -0.8 168^9 October November December 161.6 162.2 163.4 -0.1 0.4 0.7 2.5 4.0 3.3 94.1 94.5 94.9 -0.2 0.4 0.4 -1.5 1.2 0.6 17CK5 163.0 164.0 164.4 -0.2 0.6 0.3 4.0 3.2 2.8 94.5 94.7 94.5 -0.4 0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 172.5 3.0 2.1 r2.8 94.4 94.3 94.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 -0.4 -0.9 r0.3 173.9 94.3 94.3 r94.7 -0.2 0.0 0.4 r-0.2 p-0.4 r94.3 p94.0 r-0.5 p-0.2 January . February March . . . April May June July August . September ... . October November December 5.7 4.'i 3.3 • 3.9 2.3 3.9 4.5 3,9 1984 January February March .. April May June • 5,4 4^3 3.5 i'.i 3.7 4.0 3.8 3^9 1985 January February March , 164.8 164.9 165.6 April May June July August . September October November December ...... 0.2 , 0.1 0.5 165.4 165.7 T166.7 -0.1 r2.0 0.2 r0.6 P 2.F rl66.4 pl66.9 r-0.2 pO.3 4.8 0.6 3.9 3.2 r3.7 rl75!4 See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50. L Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.' Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter. 2 inn DECEMBER 1985 87 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued ^ H Negotiated wage and benefit decisions Average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector—Continued Year and month 348. Average first-year changes @ Real compensation 346. Index (1977-100) WAGES AND PRODUCTIVrTY—Continued 346c. Change over 1-quarter spans' 346c. Change over 4-quarter spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) Output per hour, all persons, business sector 349. Average changes over life of contract © (Ann. rate, percent) 370. Index (1977 = 100) 370c. Change over 1-quarter spansl 370c. Change over 4-quarter spans' (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector (1977 = 100) 1983 5.3 January February March 98.* 7 -1.0 April May June , . 98.5 i.'s 6! 6 -1.6 10212 4.4 3.6 -1.8 98^0 October November December 9s!i 5.0 4.3 -0*6 0.1 5.9 103*6 ... ... July August September 2.1 1.4 4.9 ioi*6 3*i 103*6 3*5 104! i 3*3 104.4 2*7 105*2 3.2 106^6 i.i 10613 0.3 106.9 rl.l 106.6 2.8 104.3 3.1 1.4 104*7 -0.4 3*4 1984 0.1 January February March 98.1 April May . June . 98.'i -0.2 6*i o'i 5.1 4.7 4.0 105*7 3.5 3.2 4.9 107*0 .. July . August September . . . October November December 0.0 98.1 9s! i 0.2 6*4 6*2 2.7 3.1 0.6 107'.2 3.7 2.0 3.1 108*0 1985 January February March 98*.5 April May June . 98.3 July August September 98.6 1.5 -1.0 6." 5 4,4 4.0 -3.9 106.9 3.5 3.5 1.5 107.3 rl.3 pi.7 106.3 r3.7 p2.9 rlO8.3 rlO6.9 October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50. Changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter. DECEMBER 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES C I LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Q CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS 447. Number unemployed, full-time workers Civilian labor force Year and month 441. Total 442. Civilian employment Number unemployed 37. Persons unemployed 444. Males 20 years and over (Thous.) (Thous.) (Thous.) (Thous.) 445. Females 20 years and over 446. Both sexes 16-19 years of age (Thous.) (Thous.) (Thous.) 443. Number employed part time for economic reasons (Thous.) Civilian labor force participation rates 451. Males 20 years and over (Percent) 452. Females 20 years and over 453. Both sexes 16-19 (Percent) (Percent) years of age 1983 January February March 110,746 110,700 110,733 99,233 99,144 99,303 11,513 11,556 11,430 5,587 5,737 5,620 3,990 3,950 3,895 1,936 1,869 1,915 9,802 9,915 9,747 6,456 6,303 6,179 78.2 78.2 78.2 53.0 53.0 52 9 53.9 53.0 53 0 April May June 110,906 110,892 111,717 99,590 99,634 100,444 11,316 11,258 11,273 5,669 5,657 5 408 3,751 3,750 3 861 1,896 1,851 2 004 9,656 9,521 9 382 6,021 5,989 5 945 78.4 78.4 78 6 52.9 52.7 53 1 52.8 52.5 54 5 July August September 111,707 112,184 112,264 101,173 101,589 101,983 10,534 10,595 10,281 5,186 5,129 5,016 3,481 3,567 3,513 1,867 1,899 1,752 8,934 8,948 8,733 5,858 5,958 5,974 78.7 78.6 78.5 52.9 53.3 53.5 53.7 54.9 53.6 October November December 111,914 112,150 112,237 102,042 102,702 103,029 9,872 9,448 9,208 4,801 4,592 4,382 3,359 3,225 3,227 1,712 1,631 1,599 8,315 7,924 7,679 5,726 5,884 5,677 78.4 78.4 78.3 53.3 53.2 53.3 52.8 53.3 53.5 January February March 112,320 112,724 112,906 103,294 103,888 104,123 9,026 8,836 8,783 4,273 4,139 4,048 3,191 3,135 3,148 1,562 1,562 1,587 7,532 7,321 7,301 5,719 5,697 5,465 78.3 78.3 78.3 53.1 53.3 53.5 53.4 53.8 53.9 April May June 113,202 113,722 113,619 104,402 105,162 105,391 8,800 8,560 8,228 4,087 3,909 3,807 3,161 3,127 2,972 1,552 1,524 1,449 7,331 7,056 6,578 5,520 5,377 5,549 78.3 78.3 78.3 53.6 54.1 53.8 54.2 54.3 54.3 July August September 113,868 113,629 113,764 105,377 105,148 105,394 8,491 8,481 8,370 3,884 3,836 3,817 3,130 3,214 3,044 1,477 1,431 1,509 7,010 6,933 6,931 5,482 5,384 5,449 78.3 78-3 78.3 54.0 53.9 53.6 54.5 53.0 54.2 October November December 114,016 114,074 114,464 105,649 105,932 106,273 8,367 8,142 8,191 3,731 3,725 3,759 3,173 3,027 2,952 1,463 1,390 1,480 6,932 6,768 6,811 5,483 5,413 5,596 78.3 78.3 " 78.3 53.9 53.9 54.0 53.7 53.5 54.1 January February March 114,875 115,084 115,514 106,391 106,685 107,119 8,484 8,399 8,396 3,798 3,774 3,731 3,161 3,126 3,179 1,525 1,499 1,485 6,963 6,954 6,821 5,389 5,077 5,400 78.2 78.2 78.2 54.4 54.5 54.8 55.2 55.7 56.0 April May June 115,371 115,373 114,783 106,945 106,960 106,370 8,426 8,413 8,413 3,807 3,651 3,891 3,197 3,231 3,148 1,422 1,531 1,374 6,852 6,797 6,741 5,374 5,617 5,257 78.2 78.1 77 9 54.7 54.5 54.6 55.3 55.8 51 8 July August September 115,299 115,818 115,314 106,862 107,172 107,544 8,451 8,127 8,274 3,767 3,600 3,637 3,125 3,192 3,244 1,559 1,335 1,394 6,964 6,644 6,789 5,350 5,443 5,297 77.9 77.9 78.1 54.5 54.6 54.8 55.3 53.5 54.0 116,159 116,067 107,867 107,927 8,291 8,140 3,663 3,659 3,038 3,037 1,590 1,444 6,692 6,717 5,213 5,292 78.1 78.1 54.9 54.8 54.8 54.3 .. 1984 1985 October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 51. DECEMBER 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Q | federal Governmen t1 Year and month 500. Surplus or deficit {Ann. rate, bil. do!) Revised 2 State and local government' 501. Receipts 502. Expenditures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised 2 Q RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES Revised 510. Surplus or deficit (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) . 2 Revised Advance measures of defense activity 511. Receipts 512. Expenditures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 2 Revised* OEFENSE INDICATORS Revised 517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred (Mil. dol,) 525. Defense Department prime contract awards 543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products (Mil. dol.) 2 1983 January . . . . . . . . . February March -187*9 636^3 824*. 2 37*9 466! 9 429! 6 21,340 19,502 20,444 16,908 13,042 7,351 122,628 123,803 125,570 9,555 5,014 6,361 April May June -170 6 66512 835 '.8 46.8 481." 8 435 ! l 19,332 19,554 21,518 10,132 10,111 10 814 126,165 126,532 129,720 6,578 5,609 7 412 July August September -179.7 659.7 839! 4 52*7 496.* 6 443.9 19,409 20,489 20,388 11,017 10,727 10,921 131,172 130,829 133,056 7,115 5,496 5,804 -179.' S 671*1 850 ".6 57*2 505*7 448*5 17,201 24,242 24 204 2,820 16,140 9 463 131,130 139,062 141 a?n 6,792 8,506 7 rns -157*8 709*4 867^2 64! 6 525*5 461 '.5 21,145 22,667 23,445 15,089 14,273 13,779 142,169 145,648 150,842 6,503 6,884 11,713 -163*6 721^8 88419 65*7 537*4 47l!7 19,185 20,342 19,781 11,398 9,459 11,644 149,369 149,452 151,538 5,139 6,648 6,834 July August September -178.'i 727-1 905.2 62*1 542." 2 480.'1 20,988 23,098 22,191 10,101 12,647 11,441 152,828 156,271 156,950 7,600 8,090 7,301 October November December -192*7 742." i 934 .'7 65*8 554.* i 488.' 3 20,821 28,892 26,686 12,901 25,552 7,017 159,226 168,321 172,010 5,167 10,091 7,448 -162*6 789-7 952.4 63*2 560.5 497*2 22,492 20,377 20,346 13,405 12,805 10,088 174,180 173,704 174,338 11,061 4,708 6,240 -2O9!l 754/9 964*6 57*3 57o!6 512*7 22,655 25,140 29,513 8,716 14,605 11,052 174,867 178,000 179,337 6,130 8,773 11,238 -2Oll3 790 .*7 992.'6 56*9 58l!8 524.* 9 31,641 p34,470 (NA) 11,761 17,602 182,074 pl87,278 (NA) 9,594 10,270 8,106 October November December . .. 1984 January February March April May June . . . • , . 1985 January February March April . . . May June , . July August September October November December pll,385 (NA) r6,179 p7,240 See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 ind 53. 1 2 Based on national income and product accounts. Seo "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page i i i . 90 DECEMBER 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES-Continued Q DEFENSE INDICATORS-Continued National defense purchases Intermediate and final measures of defense activity Year and month 557. Index of industrial production, defense and space equipment (1977^100) 559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products, book value 561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (Mil. dot.) (Mil. dol.) 580. Defense Department net outlays, military (Mil. dol.) 588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products 570. Employment, defense products industries (Mil. dol.) (Thous.) 564. Federal purchases of goods and 578. Civilian, services, direct hire national employment © defense (Ann. rate, (Thous.) bil.dol.) 565. National defense purchases as a percent of GNP Revised1 Revised1 6.4 Defense Department personnel 577. Military on active duty© (Thous.) 1983 (Percent) January February March 137.8 139.2 140.4 16,585 16,455 16,758 100,987 100,757 101,896 17,058 16,772 16,804 5,174 5,244 5,222 1,344 1,346 1,342 2,120 2,122 2,127 1,024 1,028 1,030 209.4 April May June 141.6 142.7 143.6 16,826 17,175 17,331 103,198 103,529 105,568 17,529 16,854 17,189 5,276 5,278 5,373 1,347 1,352 1,356 2,123 2,120 2,116 1,029 1,040 1,049 214 .*5 July August September 144.9 145.0 146.3 17,321 17,813 17,436 107,018 107,084 107,453 16,975 18,455 17,463 5,665 5,430 5,435 1,366 1,350 1,372 2,113 2,115 2,123 1,053 1,052 1,026 ... 215.8 ... 6.3 ... October November December 146.4 145.2 145.5 17,278 17,450 17,837 108,627 111,449 112,754 17,781 17,329 18,726 5,618 5,684 5,733 1,374 1,377 1,383 2,120 2,126 2,124 1,034 1,040 1,045 222! 9 6\3 January February March 148.8 151.3 151.9 17,861 18,190 18,746 113,575 114,624 120,647 18,448 17,801 17,794 5,682 5,835 5,690 1,391 1,398 1,408 2,130 2,135 2,140 1,042 1,043 1,046 228'.3 6,*2 April May June 155.6 156.0 157.2 19,017 19,514 20,035 119,870 120,758 121,672 18,525 18,609 18,953 5,916 5,760 5,920 1,415 1,427 1,440 2,138 2,141 2,143 1,049 1,061 1,071 235*8 6*.3 July August September 158.5 160 7 163 4 20,734 21,315 22,141 123,219 125,276 126,496 18,405 19,181 19,469 6,053 6,033 6,081 1,450 1,459 1,470 2,142 2,144 2,138 1,079 1,074 1,043 236.2 ... 6.2 October November December 163.5 163.3 165.3 22,551 22,581 22,517 125,340 129,092 129,775 18,687 20,152 19,899 6,323 6,339 6,765 1,480 1,486 1,498 2,138 2,141 2,138 1,058 1,065 1,067 247^5 6\4 165.3 167.3 169.0 23,091 23,405 18,762 20,058 20,465 6,380 6,695 6,718 1,511 1,522 1,532 2,146 2,147 2,148 1,065 1,069 1,072 249 '.5 6\4 0-2 AQQ 134,455 132,467 131,990 170.1 171.2173.4 24 006 23,962 24,721 131,769 133,958 137,975 19,597 20,603 20,554 6,352 6,584 7,221 1,540 1,550 1,561 2,148 2,149 2,151 1,078 1,089 1,099 256.0 6.5 July August September 173.9 175.5 177.5 25,317 25,923 26,476 140,742 143,848 144,828 21,498 22,489 p21,991 6,827, 7,164 7,126 1,569 1,590 rl,586 2,156 2,157 2,151 1,110 1,107 1,085 269^9 6\7 October November December rl78.7 P181.5 26,587 CNA) rl43,336 pl42,751 (NA) r7,671 p7,825 1,595 pi,601 2,151 p2,153 (NA) 1984 . 1985 January February March April May June . . . . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55. *See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. DECEMBER 1985 91 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Q | 602. Exports, excluding military £ id shipments 604. Exports of domestic agricultural products MERCHANDISE TRADE 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery 612. General imports 111 (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (Mil dol.) 616. Imports of automobiles and parts (Mil. dol.) 1983 January February March 17,232 16,312 16,690 3,128 2,985 2,811 3,644 3,359 3,499 20,127 18,804 19,528 4,481 3,183 3,603 2,329 3,019 2,676 April May June 16,095 15,655 16,959 2,891 2,715 2,977 3,513 3,433 3,265 19,914 21,446 20,916 3,749 5,432 4,215 2,746 2,819 2,823 July August September 16,486 16,582 17,257 3,072 2,973 3,322 3,655 3,290 3,718 21,828 22,714 22,451 4,622 4,597 4,929 2,936 2,813 2,636 17,033 17,063 17,298 2,979 3,109 3,175 3,689 3,686 3,683 24,333 23,115 22,976 4,818 4,459 3,997 3,233 3,415 January February March 17,889 17,208 17,906 3,457 3,198 3,336 4,009 3,848 3,764 26,204 26,420 26,948 4,515 4,660 5,393 3,684 3,751 3,680 April May June 17,520 17,978 17,705 3,030 3,245 2,715 3,811 3,976 3,746 28,074 26,012 25,276 6,000 5,113 4,694 3,838 3,635 3,683 July August . September 19,154 18,123 18,210 3,236 3,022 3,153 3,790 3,878 3,640 31,334 26,866 28,409 4,674 4,021 4,261 3,947 3,773 4,302 October . November December 18,411 18,395 19,142 2,799 3,242 3,314 4,007 3,905 4,128 26,783 27,331 25,933 4,007 4,637 4,298 3,600 3,817 3,732 January February March 19,401 17,853 18,446 2,945 2,842 2,436 4,247 3,970 4,160 28,297 27,985 28,129 4,005 3,833 3,411 4,033 4,999 4,243 April May June 17,779 17,414 17,438 2,624 2,092 2,167 3,970 4,073 3,952 28,295 28,685 29,425 4,936 5,237 4,842 4,350 4,073 4,932 July August September 17,412 17,423 17,731* 2,158 2,389 2,053 3,615 3,897 3,777 26,630 26,083 31,764 3,342 3,252 4,041 4,161 4,489 5,555 October November December 17,368 (NA) 2,325 (NA) 3,694 (NA) 27,594 (NA) 3,811 (NA) 4,198 (NA) October. November December .. 1984 1985 See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 56. 92 DECEMBER 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES E U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued | Q GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS) Goods and services Year 669. Imports 668. Exports 667. Balance Income on investment Merchandise, adjusted' 618. Exports 622. Balance 620. Imports 651. U.S. investment abroad and month Revised (Mil. dol.) {Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 2 2 Revised Revised (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 2 2 Revised 2 Revised (Mil. dol.) 652. Foreign investment in the United States (Mil. dol.) 2 Revised 1983 January -1,454 81,411 82,865 -8,883 49,535 58,418 17,935 12,283 -7,163 81,712 88,875 -15,880 49,048 64,928 19,172 12,856 -9,091 85,068 94,159 -20,697 49,992 70,689 20,985 13,588 -14,228 85,396 99,624 -21,756 53,137 74,893 19,932 13,893 -15,905 90,480 106,385 -24,622 53,469 78,091 23,502 15,268 -26,238 88,874 115,112 -29,625 54,556 84,181 20,895 17,277 -26,093 91,244 117,337 -28,977 55,649 84,626 21,769 18,513 -27,710 91,426 119,136 -30,885 56,242 87,127 21,445 17,442 -21,075 88,534 109,609 -23,454 55,302 78,756 18,868 16,331 -24,268 89,391 113,659 -28,587 53,624 82,211 r22,279 rl6,892 p-26,483 p90,140 pll6,623 p-33,142 p52,310 p85,452 p24,039 pl6,490 February March April ; .. May June July August September October November December .. 1984 January February March April May June July August September October November December 1985 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 57. balance of payments basis: Ex>.eludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports). 2 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. ItUI DECEMBER 1985 93 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES F I INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Year and month 47. United States, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) 721.OECD1 European countries, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) 728. Japan, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) 725. West Germany, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) 726. France, index of industrial production (1977-100) 722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) 727. Italy, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) 723. Canada, index of industrial production (1977-100) 1983 January February March 101*. 5 103.3 102 104 104 120.0 119.5 122.2 99 101 102 102 101 101 100 100 99 105.4 107.6 105.6 97.6 97.9 98.3 April May June 105.6 106 9 107.8 102 104 104 122.0 122.0 123.2 102 102 105 101 104 102 100 100 99 100.6 103.1 100,1 99.8 99.8 102.2 July August September , , . 109.8 111.5 113.7 105 104 105 123.4 126.8 129.0 102 103 104 104 104 102 101 101 101 103.8 101.5 104.0 101 104 106.4 October November . . . December . . . 114.4 114.8 115.5 104 107 107 127.5 130.0 131.3 104 106 107 101 104 104 101 101 105 102.4 109.3 103.7 107.8 108.7 110.5 January February March 118.4 119.3 120.1 108 108 107 131.5 135.4 134.2 106 108 105 105 104 105 105 104 103 105.7 104.3 108.1 111.0 108.0 110.0 April May June 120. 121. 122, 106 107 104 135.1 137.9 138.6 105 106 95 102 105 103 103 102 103 103.8 107.6 108.4 109.9 110.3 111.3 July August September . . . 123.2 123.5 123.3 108 109 109 139,2 140.2 139.4 109 108 108 107 107 105 102 102 103 107.1 108.7 110.0 115.1 114.5 112.2 October November . . . December . . . 122.7 123.4 123.3 109 rlO8 108 143.3 143.4 142.7 109 110 109 107 104 103 103 103 104 107.3 106.1 106.6 112.2 114.1 115.0 January February March 123.6 123.7 124.0 108 110 111 143.0 142.8 140.8 110 109 110 rlOl 105 107 106 105 107 102.5 111.5 111.8 114.2 113.8 113.9 April May June 124.1 124.1 124.3 109 110 111 144.5 148.2 145.1 110 111 113 rlO3 105 103 108 108 108 107.0 108.3 111.3 114.5 114.3 116,5 July August September . , , 124. rl25. rl25.0 111 111 pin 147.8 rl46.0 P144.6 116 112 pill 108 108 plO5 rlO7 107 P109 107.1 rlO7,5 plO9,8 118.5 rll8.3 rll8.5 October November . . . December . . . rl24.6 P125.1 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) P119.3 (NA) 1984 1985 See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 58. 'Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. 94 DECEMBER 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES F I INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued Q United States Year and month 320. Index © (1967 = 100) Japan 320c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 738. Index © (1967 = 100) CONSUMER PRICES France West Germany 738c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 735. Index © (1967 = 100) 735c. Change over 6-month spans' (Ann. rate, percent) 736. Index© (1967 = 100) United Kingdom 736c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 732. Index © (1967 = 100) 732c. Change over 6-month spans' (Ann. rate, percent) 1983 January February March 293.1 293.2 293.4 1.4 2.3 3.4 306.6 305.5 307.5 0.7 2.1 1.2 201.2 201.3 201.2 1.7 1.9 1.2 390.1 392.9 396.5 11.9 10.8 10.0 523.5 525.8 526.7 3.5 3.2 3.8 April May June 295.5 297.1 298.1 3.6 4.4 5.0 308.6 312.0 309.7 1.1 1.9 1.0 201.7 202.2 202.9 2.4 3.6 4.1 401.8 404.5 406.9 9.8 9.9 10.3 534.1 536.4 537.7 5.0 5.4 6.1 July August September . . . . ' . . . 299.3 300.3 301.8 4.2 4.1 4.2 308.3 307.4 311.4 2.0 1.6 2.3 203.6 204.3 204.9 3.6 3.2 3.8 410.4 412.8 416.0 9.1 8.9 8.6 540.6 543.0 545.4 6.5 6.3 6.6 October November December 302.6 303.1 303.5 4.7 4.8 4.6 314.2 312.2 311.4 2.6 4.0 3.8 204.9 205.2 205.7 3.0 2.2 2.2 419.2 420.9 422.4 8.3 8.0 7.1 547.3 549.2 550.7 5.3 4.8 4.4 January February March 305.2 306.6 307.3 4.8 4.5 4.3 312.3 314.2 315.1 2.7 2.4 1.5 206.6 207.1 207.3 2.6 2.5 1.9 425.4 428.0 431.0 6.6 6.6 6.9 550.4 552.6 554.4 4.1 4.0 3.7 April May June 308.8 309.7 310.7 3.6 3.7 3.8 315.9 318.2 315.6 2.5 -0.1 0.8 207.7 207.8 208.6 1.6 1.3 0.9 433.6 436.2 438.4 6.8 7.0 7.2 561.8 563.9 565.3 3.6 5.1 5.1 July August September 311.7 313.0 314.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 316.2 313.4 318.5 1.6 1.9 3.8 208.2 207.8 208.0 1.6 1.7 2.1 441.5 443.7 445.9 7.7 7.4 6.8 564.7 570.0 571.1 5.7 5.9 5,4 October November December 315.3 315.3 315.5 3.4 3.3 3.5 321.0 319.0 319.6 3.2 3.0 2.5 209.2 209.6 209.8 2.7 3.4 4.3 449.0 450.3 451.2 6.4 5.9 5.8 574.6 576.4 575.9 6.5 5.8 7.1 January February March 316.1 317.4 318.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 321.3 318.7 320.2 2.2 1.3 1.4 211.0 211.9 212.6 3.4 3.4 2.4 453.5 455.8 459.0 5.5 5.5 6.0 578.0 582.7 588.1 8.2 8.3 8.5 April May June 320.1 321.3 322.3 3.7 3.4 2.8 321.9 323.3 323.5 1.6 1.7 0.9 212.9 213.1 213.3 1.6 0.9 0.2 462.2 464.5 466.4 5.8 5.3 4.7 600.6 603.4 604.7 7.3 6.6 4.7 July August September 322.8 323.5 324,5 2.6 3.3 323.8 320.7 323.8 2.2 (NA) 212.9 212.2 212.6 0.0 (NA) 468.2 468.7 469.2 (NA) 603.5 605.1 604.8 2.8 (NA) October November December 325.5 326.6 1984 1985 328.4 (NA) 212.9 (NA) (NA) 605.8 (NA) See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 59. Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month. DECEMBER 1985 95 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES F I INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued Q Italy Year and month 737. Index© I CONSUMER PRICES—Continued Canada 737c. Change over 6-month spans1 733. Index © 733c. Change over 6-month spans' (Ann. rate, percent) | STOCK PRICES 19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks © 748. Japan, index of stock prices @ 745. West Germany, index of stock prices © 746. France, index of stock prices © 742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices © 747. Italy, index of stock prices @ 743. Canada, index of stock prices © (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967-100) (1967-100) (1967-100) (1967-100) (1967-100) (Ann. rate, percent) (1967-100) January February March 602.7 610.5 616.0 14.3 14.2 13.8 312.5 313.9 317.1 4.2 3.4 4.2 156.9 159.7 165.2 533.3 530.8 544.2 126.0 131.9 143.9 159.1 165.0 179.1 371.9 381.6 388.3 95.5 109.1 118.7 229.5 236.2 243.6 April May June 622.2 628.2 632.2 14.0 13.2 12.7 317.1 317.9 321.5 5.2 5.9 4.7 171.6 178.5 181.0 559.7 573.4 583.3 157.0 158.6 159.5 188.7 200.4 196.8 410.4 403.7 426.1 115.8 111.6 110.3 264,5 273.5 276.5 July August September 638.5 641.1 649.4 12.4 11.8 11.7 322.9 324.5 324.5 5.6 5.0 4.9 181.6 176.7 181.8 598.7 606.4 619.7 169.0 166.9 164.7 206.1 220.2 224.9 418.9 431.8 422.6 112.9 120.5 118.4 280.0 280.6 282.4 October November December 660.4 667.0 670.3 11.1 11.5 11.5 326.5 326.5 327.5 5.4 5.1 4.6 182.4 179.7 178.8 621.0 621.5 638.6 173.4 176.7 179.2 225.3 239.5 247.6 411.2 424.1 432.6 111.6 112.7 112.8 266.8 287.1 288.4 January February March 678.3 685.8 690.6 11.1 10.9 10.9 329.2 331.1 331.9 4.3 4.7 3.4 181.0 171.1 171.3 687.6 699.6 736 1 185.3 182.3 178.4 275.9 263.4 261 1 457.2 457.2 485 3 125.3 128.7 128 5 279.0 273.4 269 2 April May June 695.4 699.6 703.8 10.0 9.4 8.1 332.7 333.3 334 7 3.1 2.3 3 0 171.4 170.3 166 6 776.0 744.6 711 2 177.9 178.0 175 8 285.4 277.1 272 3 495.0 489.6 124.9 122.5 262.5 251.9 ACQ 7 11 Q fi pci July August September 705.9 708,0 713.0 6.8 6.4 6.8 336.6 336.6 336.9 2.5 3.4 4.2 164.3 178.9 180.7 701.3 728.8 738.6 167.2 172.0 178.3 256.7 274.3 287.0 447.5 478.6 497.0 121.4 128.7 127.6 241.8 269.6 270.4 October November December 720.1 724.4 729.5 7.2 7.7 8.9 337.5 339.7 339.9 4.3 5.2 4.4 179.3 180,9 178.9 760.5 774.7 804.7 185.2 185.1 187.4 287.9 286.0 285.2 503.7 525.9 551.2 127.4 130.5 130.5 265.9 267.6 271.2 January February March 736.8 744.2 749.4 10.7 11.1 10.4 341.3 343.5 344.3 5.3 4.5 4.0 186.7 196.8 195.2 839.5 851.9 900.4 195.1 202.0 213.4 294.3 307.9 317.8 578.1 585.1 592.3 147.2 164.1 165.0 April May June 756.1 760.6 764 4 10.0 9.4 74 345.7 346.5 348 3 3.4 2.9 3 6 196.5 201.1 pnR ^ 880.3 890.6 915 0 212.5 218.7 234 2 328.9 336.4 337 2 592.0 607.0 591 3 i qq n July August September 766.7 768.2 771.3 5.2 6.0 349.5 350.1 350.5 3.1 3.4 209.4 204.8 200.2 941.6 915.9 915.0 234.8 237.4 253.2 321.9 316.6 312.3 568.4 597.0 605.7 212.9 229.9 246.4 314.0 318.6 297.4 October November December 780.6 786.1 202.5 214.8 P224.9 P937.3 rp926.1 P941.7 273.6 rp289.3 P295.3 rp299.6 rp329.5 P347.2 617.4 rp646.8 P643.6 rp253.5 rp264.0 P279.3 302.2 322.8 P333.0 1983 1984 ..., n 1985 351.7 353.1 164.4 188.7 See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 59. Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month. 96 DECEMBER 1985 • 293.2 293.2 295.2 297.8 309.2 oOo. o APPENDIXES B. Current Adjustment Factors 5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance 13 New business incorporations1 .. . Mar. Apr. May June Aug. Sept. Oct. 145.7 101.0 90.3 92.7 83.1 87.5 105.7 86.3 81.4 95 9 105 6 125 2 91.3 103.1 105.3 106.0 99.1 103.3 98.5 94 0 105 0 104.7 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations2 33. Net change in mortgage debt 13 95.7 108.8 -1229 -2514 -1691 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current dollars'* 517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred1 1985 July Feb. Jan. 100 2 99.8 608 100.0 1003 92 7 Dec. 96 9 95 7 815 1376 939 -584 99.9 100.0 100.3 100 2 100.1 99.9 99.9 99.9 446 Nov. 439 255 99 9 100 0 . . . 119.0 96.2 104.1 98.9 87.8 80.9 88.5 86.9 117.7 112.7 105.4 101 8 525. Defense Department prime contract awards . 105.5 96.6 114.5 94.3 86.4 84.9 75.7 78.6 191.6 80.5 100.1 . . . . 103.3 103.2 103.1 103.7 101.4 98.9 97.0 93.8 98.6 99.7 100.1 100,1 543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligationsoutstanding . 570. Employment, defense products industries . . 100.2 100.0 100.0 1 99.8 97.0 90.9 99.1 100.7 99.3 100.0 100.0 100.1 100.5 95.8 102.8 100.0 104.3 98.3 99.9 100.4 95.6 101.8 604. Exports of domestic agricultural products . 106.7 105.2 115.0 103.0 100.9 94.8 83.5 83.0 91.8 100.8 108.8 106.3 95.5 99.5 106.0 580. Defense Department net outlays 101.0 93.8 90.7 110.3 99.9 102.8 105.1 102.7 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products1 99.2 91.9 90.2 616. Imports of automobiles and parts1 109.4 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery .... 86.0 84.1 106.1 84.3 97.9 98.1 95.6 98.3 98.1 114.9 113.3 107.0 115.0 102.8 95.3 96.4 94.3 107.2 118.4 104.3 98.4 87.8 87.9 104.3 NOTE: These series are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis rather than by the source agency. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be used in BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST whenever they are available. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, THE X-ll VARIANT OF THE CENSUS METHOD II SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM. factors are the products of seasonal and trading-day factors. 'Quarterly series; factors are placed in the middle month of the quarter. 3 These quantities, in millions of dollars, are subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. These factors are computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program. ''These factors apply only to the loans portion of this series. 97 C. Historical Data for Selected Series Year Jan. Feb. May Apr. Mar. 12. June July Aug. Sept. Oct. 1 Nov. Dec. IQ 93.0 92.3 89.7 98.7 98.1 92.6 90.9 100.0 96.1 92.3 93.7 93.6 91.6 90.1 99.4 96 .9 93.6 91 .8 98.4 96.1 92.8 93.1 97.4 100.0 102.9 97.4 1 0 Ji . 2 111 .8 98.2 99,2 100,6 96.9 103.2 113.7 99.7 99 .4 99.9 98 .2 102.1 113.6 97.8 100.5 99.8 100.0 103.7 113.3 106 .0 114.2 117 .7 109.9 100 2 114.3 122.1 128.5 129.1 124.5 120 .1) 113. H 112.1 116.9 106,3 115.4 116.0 112.7 101.3 H4.5 120.2 128.5 127.9 121.9 121 .9 115.2 112.0 117.5 107.7 114.6 115.9 112.6 103.3 113.3 120.8 127.7 129.1 121.1 119.1 114.7 114.8 115.7 109.9 114.6 115.5 113.4 108.7 116.1 123.5 129.3 126.7 118.9 117.3 112.1 116.4 117.0 89.3 91 .4 95.1 88.6 97.7 97,7 93.5 88.9 98.3 99.6 88.9 93.2 89.7 92.2 94.2 68.0 98.5 98.5 93,5 88.5 98.6 98.3 90.8 94.0 90.1 93.1 93.7 87.8 98.6 97.5 93.8 68.3 100.1 37.3 !U .4 1*4.5 1963 . . . 1964... 196 5 . . . 1966,.. 1967... 1968, . . 196 9 . . . 94.0 96.8 100.4 102.0 97.0 104.1 112.9 97.8 100.8 102 . 8 96.7 104.8 113.7 197l!!! 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975,.. 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... 104.5 1113 . 5 116.7 103.7 113.2 117.1 110.0 99.4 114.1 120.7 127.3 128.1 127.9 120,7 115.6 113.3 117.2 109.5 99.7 114.2 120.3 125.2 128.3 128.1 121.6 113.2 111 .4 115.9 13. 1951 . . . 1 952 . . . 1953.,, 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961 . . . 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 196 9 . . . 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981 . . . 1982... 1983., . 1984.., 1985... 1951 . . . 1952.. 1953. . . 1954... 1955... 19 5 6 . . . 1957,.. 1958.. . 1959... I960... 1961 . . . 1962 . . . 1 963 1964... 1965.. . 1966... 1967.. . 1968... 1969... 1970.. . 1971... 1972.. . 1973... 1974. . . 1975.. . 1976. . . 1977 . . . 1978., . 1979.. . 1980.. . 1981.. . 1982... 1983., . 1984. . . 1985... 92.3 91.5 90,8 98.9 96,3 93.2 92.3 96.4 96.0 93.2 93.3 95.2 97.8 100.5 99.3 100.4 106,2 113.2 104.0 110.4 115.8 115.4 114.5 112.3 115.7 122.8 129.3 128.4 119.1 118.2 112.4 115.2 115.8 91.2 94.0 86.6 95.4 98.2 94.6 90.4 96.1 98.7 91.7 93.8 93,3 90.4 94.2 89.5 95.1 98.2 94.2 89.2 96.6 98.8 90.9 93.8 93.1 94.6 91 .8 91.2 98.5 95.4 92.6 94.1 98.5 94.6 91.7 93.6 95.0 89.4 92 .3 98.6 95.2 91 .7 95.3 97.8 94.1 91 .8 94.4 90.1 94.5 89.9 94.2 97.8 96.4 91.3 95.2 97.4 93.9 92.8 94.1 96 .0 96.2 100.1 98.2 102.3 107.7 112.6 95.8 100.2 99.9 97.4 101 .7 109.0 111 .5 96.1 100.8 99.5 98.2 101.6 112.8 113.5 95.4 98.9 100.6 95.4 103.8 110.5 111.5 96 .0 100.2 100.9 96.1 103.8 112.7 112.8 89.7 92.2 94.3 88.1 98.3 97.9 93.6 68.6 99.0 98.4 90.4 93.9 94.7 97.3 100.4 102.6 97.0 104.7 113.1 103.4 109.9 116.1 114.7 112.7 111 .4 113.9 125.3 127.3 127.9 120.6 118.7 112.6 114.4 119.1 109.0 117.7 112.4 108.5 111.2 115.5 124.0 127.6 130.0 121 .1 117.6 110.4 115.8 119.7 110.6 118.9 112.2 103.0 110.5 117.2 126.4 130.3 127.0 121.6 114.8 111.5 118.0 117.7 111.4 118.5 114.1 101.7 111.1 119.7 126.2 129.9 127,9 121.1 117.4 112.9 117.8 116.0 112.3 118.1 110.7 101.8 114.3 119.0 126 .3 127 .5 129.7 122.7 115.2 114.4 116.3 116 .6 104.7 113.6 117.2 109.8 99.8 114.2 121 .0 127.0 128.5 126.9 121 .0 114,1 112.5 116.7 NUMBER OF NEW BUSINESS INCORPORATIONS (NUMBER) 7,016 6,937 7,0 82 6,648 6,759 6,796 6,880 6,952 6,995 7,119 7,181 21,167 a[ 304 8,638 11,902 11,620 11 ,250 11,042 16,346 16,561 13,60? 15,599 14,924 15,993 16,784 18,087 16,703 18,061 8',3 51 8,937 11,843 12,449 11,359 11,049 16,255 15,274 14,570 15,758 1 5 , 3 90 16 ,326 16,854 17,451 15,987 18,041 8^634 9,155 11,679 11,591 11 ,367 11 ,042 16,548 15,233 14,658 15,670 15,563 15,917 17,131 17,266 16,244 18,538 8^534 9,276 11,215 11,888 11,507 10,636 16,604 15,280 15,327 15,372 15,305 16,132 16,664 17,057 16,760 18,663 8! 785 9,158 11,521 12,245 11 , 1 0 9 11 ,752 16,296 15,176 15,298 15,245 15,682 16 ,473 16,580 16,644 17 ,627 18,723 8^605 9,43 6 12,072 11 , 9 9 9 11,739 12,032 15,204 15,630 15,431 14,947 15,536 16,282 17,017 16,577 17,799 18,839 8,757 9,772 11,655 11,851 11 ,6 86 12,504 15,658 15,828 15,492 15,171 1 5 , 431 16,550 16,844 16,074 16,300 19,40 7 8,515 9,882 11,572 11 ,707 11,593 13,644 15,813 15,114 15,277 15,056 16,093 15,692 16,901 16,3 43 17,674 19,9 47 8,185 10,085 11 ,968 11,193 11 ,318 13,933 15,728 15,112 15,402 15,249 15 ,689 16,948 17,136 15,764 17,818 20,582 8,341 8,698 10 ,730 11 , 6 6 8 11,925 11,251 13,669 15,383 15,035 16,035 14,892 16,275 16,728 16,994 16,233 17,654 21 , 0 9 3 8)265 8,556 11 ,212 11,761 11,186 10,788 14,599 15,695 14,264 16,149 14,951 15,759 16,804 17,606 16,206 17,958 20 , 8 9 0 22 *196 22,563 25,270 27,796 26 ,511 24,809 29,613 34,311 36,414 42,043 44,230 46,039 43,330 49,999 53,044 22^968 21,034 25 , 0 8 4 28,752 27,056 24,931 29 , 772 33,844 39,43 4 42,014 44,175 48,588 47,234 48,296 5 3 , 5 91 21^346 22,883 26,231 28,964 26,458 25,076 31,000 35,018 37,847 43,299 43,359 47,972 46,899 48,032 53,424 \ 1 \ 82 9 22,814 26,630 28,522 29,071 2<i,708 30,80 8 3<,529 39,585 43,401 42,240 49,413 46 876 48,903 53,933 21 , 8 7 4 23,960 26,270 2 8,2 86 27,562 26 , 6 3 2 28 , 7 8 4 35,256 39,059 44,317 42 ,710 48,997 46,995 50 ,211 51 ,166 21 1 7 96 24,481 26,175 27,999 25,785 26,307 31,420 36,694 39,860 43,504 40,648 49,172 45,936 50,992 54,729 23 ,366 21,614 24,677 2 6 , 7 89 27,477 2 7 , 7 90 28,655 31 , 0 3 7 36,874 40,152 44,513 43,621 49,038 44,525 48,601 52,092 22,871 21 , 7 96 25,012 26,365 26,689 26,495 27,810 31 ,301 38,180 41 ,007 43,63 4 44,255 48,631 46,981 52 ,828 51 ,723 22 ,594 22,181 23,623 27,168 26 ,240 26,313 28,359 31 ,921 37 ,271 41,553 44,173 45,746 48,450 45,552 50,445 52,237 24 , 26 3 21,712 25,356 27,529 26,809 25,404 29,079 32,160 38,213 41,437 45,295 45,945 47,947 45,530 50,441 52,587 23,125 22,217 25,510 26,234 26,718 25,555 28,634 33,183 38,308 41,423 44,540 46,750 49,413 48,474 51,642 53,490 8,096 8,696 11 ,604 11,560 11,139 10,791 15,577 15,959 14,097 15,881 14,985 15,867 17,021 17,625 16,583 18,238 20,619 22,404 22 ,272 25,634 27,699 24,881 25,003 29,282 33,124 38,900 42,179 43,563 47,840 47,556 57,507 51,557 53,503 21.7 26 .2 29.6 37.9 42.9 54.1 64.4 73.6 53.7 81 .5 106.6 161.0 96^ 89.3 103.2 108.2 104.5 75.0 137.3 168.8 101 .6 205.8 337.3 391 .1 257.1 168.5 168.3 182.2 243.2 341.4 645.1 2158,1 17 83,3 16.0 17.7 2 9.? 19.5 31. 2 7.*3 57.. 47.8 41 .i 42.1 42. ( 49.2 55. 65.4 71 .( 65.3 65.0 50.6 70 .2 60 .9 126.6 88.1 80.9 90.5 94.7 123 .9 111 .0 146.6 112 .0 95 = 5 1 0 3 . 5 119.3 113,4 88.6 79.6 84.1 90.0 120.0 139.4 224.6 150.9 220 .7 191.3 252.4 137.2 204.6 213 .1 343.3 3 84.8 2 47.6 211 .8 248.2 194.2 324.4 205 .0 187.8 177.1 274,2 190.8 485.3 789,2 836.0 913.5 1154,7 10 8 6 . 4 3479.7 1713.1 103.8 109.8 116.5 114.2 111 .9 111.6 115.0 124.0 128.1 128.8 120 .3 118.2 111.8 115.1 118.2 90.6 94.2 89.3 94.9 98.1 95.1 90,3 96.0 98.3 92.2 93.5 93.5 95.8 100.0 100.3 96.6 103.1 112,0 112.6 104.7 111 .4 118.5 112.3 102.2 112,0 118.6 126.3 129.2 128.2 121 .8 115.8 112,9 117.4 116.8 89.5 93.3 91 ,7 91.0 98.4 96.6 92.4 92.2 98.7 95.5 • 92.1 93.7 95 .2 98.6 100.2 99.4 ,100.0 106.8 112.9 106 .4 108.5 115.9 114.9 109.2 107.0 115.6 123.2 128.2 128.3 122.4 118.6 113.2 114.8 117.1 20,628 21,295 21 ,6 42 25,289 26,730 35,424 35,660 33,976 33,133 49,149 47,068 42,835 47,027 45,877 48,236 50,769 52,804 48,934 54,640 24,007 25,457 29,739 35,195 34,751 34,597 40,081 47,199 46 ,054 46 ,171 45,476 47 ,213 49,190 50,881 48.181 51,792 59,936 24,702 25,950 33,546 34,989 34,250 32,830 43,845 47,037 43,396 48,065 44,82 8 47,901 50,553 52,225 49,022 53,850 62,602 66^510 66,480 76,585 85,512 80,025 74,816 90,385 103,173 113,695 127,356 131,764 142,599 137,463 146,327 160,059 65,499 71,255 79,075 84,807 82,418 79,647 91,012 106,479 118,504 131,222 125,598 147,582 139,807 150,106 159,828 65,591 73,312 80,322 80,406 80,598 84,824 94,259 112,325 122,712 132 ,320 133,622 146,119 137,058 151,874 156,052 6 9,792 66,201 76,500 81,462 7 8,40 8 75,962 86,995 98,467 115,421 125,039 133,398 140,535 144,916 151,511 153,640 159,580 55.3 74.9 81.7 134.6 121.1 134 .7 175.3 201 .3 197.2 184.8 296 .2 278.0 3 53 .4 331 .7 347.8 302.2 340.9 272.7 249.1 3 96.7 544.4 513.6 595.4 755,0 1119.2 716.5 610.9 697.7 547.1 708.2 1615.9 2394.6 4399.2 6976.1 63.3 71.9 92.7 122.6 107.4 144.8 161 . 1 201.6 172.0 269.0 250.4 301 .8 83,779 92,991 102,620 117,885 140,416 140,7 93 135,758 151,479 191,489 182,604 183,127 182,895 187,514 196,866 204,136 200,285 206,762 233,403 2 73,994 263,801 287,547 317,444 329,133 319,003 326,282 374,123 437,398 479,950 524,296 531,519 581,216 565 ,839 601,947 635,519 TOTAL FOR PERIOD n .1 23,5 22.8 21 . 1 26.4 26 .6 29.7 17.6 27.5 42.5 36 >0 41 9 57.1 84.0 71 .9 69.2 86. A 121.0 32.8 38.5 34.7 59.9 52,6 56.2 50 .9 73.3 80.5 91 .5 32.4 41 .6 36.7 43 .0 51.4 61 . 4 49 .2 126.4 83.8 88.5 39.8 32.2 32.5 48.7 44.3 65.4 51 .2 61 .7 69.2 91 .6 28.5 32.6 36 .0 55.0 43.5 SO.8 54.5 97.6 102.7 146.6 33.8 36.4 33.1 39.3 45.4 48.1 54.7 80.6 116.7 96 .2 3 5.1 37.1 29.0 34.8 50.0 47.4 47.3 50.4 81.5 70.3 119.1 18.8 36.8 35.1 42.8 39.9 52.9 56.7 53.2 84.5 119.2 98.8 19.4 23 .4 43.8 40.1 41 .6 50.3 45 .3 57.1 59.6 79.0 65.5 81 .3 93.4 133.1 96.4 93.4 91 .4 92.6 147 .9 2 49.5 190.1 168.0 375.7 357.8 233 .3 473.9 160.4 200 .5 381 .2 428.2 S850.5 920.0 3074.3 144.5 144.6 123.6 104.6 74.7 91 .9 170.5 165.8 127.9 180.2 215.5 175.9 373.6 305.9 178,8 273.2 436.7 408.5 1020.2 2188,6 3427.4 125.6 121 . 5 69.9 72.6 90.3 112,7 251.9 147 .0 204.6 206.2 153.4 242.0 305.6 577.8 231 .8 212.2 445.7 619.5 1425.6 829.2 2783.7 95.2 135.0 178.1 108.9 65.8 62.8 169.6 155.6 253 .6 190.2 232.7 222.4 264.0 338.2 206.4 287.4 345.4 450.4 2759.6 1353.1 196 8.7 114.6 105.0 129.2 93.9 58.6 73.7 232.9 115.8 113.5 189.5 217.0 205.5 250 .3 97.0 127.0 186 .2 1002 .9 752.3 1024.7 947 .2 2045.6 93.8 82 ,1 108.0 81.6 65.4 116.4 144.8 144.7 153.0 185.7 306.8 1295.4 183.6 115.7 475.3 395.8 359.2 897.9 1299.0 1816.8 119.3 71.7 106.7 70.0 58.6 127.1 119.8 129.0 208.6 218.7 344.7 252.9 277.6 200.3 178.9 184.3 239.3 618.8 733.3 1624.5 98.3 97.6 161 .5 195.5 83.4 96.9 121.7 111.3 86.8 2 45.6 2 42.6 136.9 200.4 168,3 196.5 138.0 288.3 626 .7 794.0 868.5 NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reorinted for the convenience of the user. 98.8 97.7 93.3 90.3 99.4 96.5 92.5 93.6 94 .6 98.6 99.7 100.1 98.4 103.0 113.5 106.4 108.0 114.9 115.8 112.9 104.4 114.6 121.5 128.5 127.9 120.6 119.4 114.0 114.4 116.7 89.1 94.0 90.9 91 .4 98.7 95.6 92.5 93.9 98.2 94.9 92.2 93.8 95 .7 98.7 100 .2 98.3 101.5 107.6 112.4 20,689 22 ,6 40 25,924 27,870 34,808 36,132 34,355 34,420 48,104 46,086 46,056 45,56 4 46,523 48,887 50,261 50,278 52,186 56,225 CURRENT LIABILITIE S OF BUSINESS FAILURES MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 112.9 83.2 110.1 103.8 80.1 118.8 131.9 153.8 148.5 119.3 209.8 372.1 206.4 207 .3 203.0 2 42.8 428.2 536.9 1309.3 1125.6 2429.4 88.7 92.6 92.3 89.6 TOTAL FOR PERIOD 7,214 14. Annual IV Q AVERAGE FOR PERIOD (1967-100) 88,8 91,3 93.1 89.1 98.2 98.2 93.6 88,2 99,8 97.4 92.4 94.0 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956.. . 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962.,. III Q II Q 1 350.8 360.9 330,1 301 . 8 246.2 303.3 450.3 569.1 466.5 467.5 801.0 905.8 813.3 987.0 542.2 716.4 1246.0 1373.6 5180.0 4234.2 8931.1 74.2 59 .2 102.2 101 .2 101 .7 143 .0 133.2 164.2 160 .4 239.9 288.5 334.6 335.4 361 .5 377.1 275.4 214.6 249.3 654.4 418.4 571 .8 585.9 603.1 670.0 819.9 1013.0 565.2 685 .8 1794.0 .182 2.2 5209.8 3129.5 6798.0 66.7 77 .2 117 .6 104.2 119.2 140.2 145.6 161.1 163.2 244.9 255.0 299.2 311.4 251 .4 376.2 347.1 207.4 3 40.4 386.3 385.0 448.3 650.0 894.1 1685 .1 661.6 484.3 850.8 718,1 886.9 2143 .4 2826,3 4309,9 259.5 283 .3 394.2 462 .6 449.4 562.7 615.3 728.2 692.8 938.6 1090.1 1213 .6 1352 .6 1329.2 1321 .6 1385.6 1265 .2 940 .9 1142.1 1887.8 1916.9 2000.2 2298.7 3053 .1 43 80 .2 3011 .3 3095 .3 2656 .0 2667 .4 4635.1 6955 .2 15610 .7 16072 .9 (DECEMBER 1985) C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. 525. 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962 . . . 1963.. . 1964... 1965... 1966 . . . 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... Mar. Feb. 3,976 2,528 3,682 616 1,049 1,474 1,756 2,103 1,625 1,850 1,989 3,271 2,429 2,372 2,097 2,952 3,364 2,887 3,398 2,855 2,508 3,520 2,824 3,218 3,731 3,536 3,354 4,853 5,771 5,491 7,155 9 , 7 56 16,90 8 15,089 3,001 2,959 2,381 826 1,028 1,502 1 ,563 2,243 1,966 1,90 4 1,987 2,552 2,463 1,966 2,451 2,956 3,034 3,124 2,90 4 2,904 3,104 3,025 2,947 2,990 3,168 6,713 4,819 4,90 9 5,903 5,887 7,590 9,870 7,351 13,779 3,493 5,479 2,295 56 4 1,306 1,388 1,927 1,232 1,898 1,754 2,186 2,180 2,611 2,958 1,846 2,906 3,930 3,445 3,441 2,623 2,704 2,982 2,899 3,144 4,061 3,101 4,369 4,741 4,554 6,839 7,514 13,761 13,042 14,273 543. 1951.. 1952.. 1953.. 1954.. 1955.. 1956., 1957.. 1958.. 1959.. 1960 . . 1961 . . 1962 . . 1963.. 1964.. 1965.. 1966 . . 1967.. 1968.. 1969.. 1970.. 1971.. 1972.. 1973.. 1974.. 1975.. 1976.. 1977.. 1978.. 1979. . 1980.. 1981 . . 1982.. 1983.. 1984.. 1985.. 38,361 38,587 32,254 3 1 , 2 9 3 23,715 23,685 26,293 26,581 22,051 21,957 23,663 23,641 21,509 21,314 22,795 23,041 24,633 24,506 24,531 24,304 23,003 23,777 23,434 2 3 , 4 6 6 27,275 2 7 , 6 2 1 35,350 3 5 , 7 1 9 36,616 37,236 39,531 39,147 32,561 32,041 30,181 30,851 32,879 32,832 34,280 34,426 37,446 37,673 40,052 3 9 , 8 7 5 41,358 4 1 , 4 5 9 49,258 50,229 57,304 5 8 , 4 0 1 66,702 49,455 71,178 7 1 , 6 6 5 82,087 83,608 98,818 1 0 2 , 6 7 7 122,628 1 2 3 , 8 0 3 142,169 1 4 5 , 6 4 8 580. 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954.. . 1955... 1956... 1957 . . . 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 196 3 . . . 1964. . . 1965. . . 1966 . . . 1967.. , 1968... 1969... 1970 . . . 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976.. . 1977.. . 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982 . . . 1983... 1984... 1985 . . . Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 3,46 2 3,295 265 481 1,310 1,934 1 ,81 9 1,704 2 ,102 1,93 8 2 ,308 2,946 1 ,814 2,075 2,995 3,225 3,308 3,378 2,734 2 , 7 46 3,092 3,589 3,347 3 ,667 3,062 4,114 4,247 6,509 6 ,029 6 ,773 9,817 10 ,209 16,140 25,552 3,399 3,148 390 913 2,194 1,891 1,671 2,328 1,298 1,922 2,491 2,044 2,149 1,997 2,988 3,513 3,479 3,613 2,765 3 ,181 3,06 6 2,532 3,292 3,051 3,413 4,729 5,332 4,56 8 5,825 9,835 9,049 17 , 2 9 8 9,463 7,017 Q DEFENSE DEPARTMENT PRIME CONTRACT AWARDS FOR WORK PERFORMED IN THE UNITED STATE (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1 ,630 3,46 0 3,861 3,600 3,172 3,077 3,508 3,363 3,590 3,586 3,672 4,068 4,253 4,054 3,992 4,634 6,028 6,794 6,471 6,495 6,201 6 , 2 80 6,256 6,827 7,150 7,175 7,476 8,493 9,404 10,900 12,639 14,152 17,058 18,448 2,892 2,088 2,46 2 1,068 1,46 8 1,404 2,312 2,142 2,204 1 , 726 2,274 2,295 2,023 2,502 2,843 3 ,461 3,026 3,488 2 ,825 2,591 2,928 2,985 2,56 8 4,372 4,023 3,489 4,303 4,970 4,688 6,944 8,505 10,518 10,132 11,398 3,760 3,059 2,038 1,326 841 1,7 82 80 8 3,043 1,893 2,252 1,855 2,140 2,413 2 . 6 40 2,150 2,978 4,040 4,203 3,070 2,545 2,231 2 . 7 86 3,171 3,211 3,814 3,543 4,654 6,204 4,825 6,901 7,967 9,657 10,111 9,459 2,759 4,292 2,042 1,116 1,287 2,024 1,093 2,228 2,222 1,963 2,229 2,127 2,366 1,910 2 , 3 90 3,693 3,566 3,067 2,744 2,896 2,324 3,154 2,897 3,402 3 , 6 80 3,854 4,300 7,081 4,144 6,450 7,041 14,296 10,814 11,644 4,097 1,158 2,035 886 971 1,196 1,619 1,511 2 ,192 2,151 1 ,993 1,888 4,241 1,002 1,089 767 1,231 2,108 1 ,310 1,692 1 ,96 4 2,200 2 ,143 2,167 2,580 2,313 3,940 3,545 3,93 7 2,896 1,963 2,775 3,165 3 , 6 90 3,173 3,001 7 82 3,093 2 ,638 2,962 3,553 4,419 3,652 4,623 4,924 4,947 7,188 9,504 8,928 10,727 12,647 2,916 3,074 2,024 3,295 3,635 2,53 5 4,624 3,928 5,650 6,211 8,845 8,610 11,017 10 , 1 0 1 2,333 2,116 1,004 2,454 597 2,091 1,297 2,308 1,7 93 2,250 2,033 2,032 2,635 2,163 2,419 3,541 3,720 3,836 2 , 6 80 2,113 2,982 2,725 3,235 3,504 3,102 4,985 4,255 4,855 6,232 6,893 9,325 10,296 10,921 11,441 2,823 2,143 959 2,271 1,136 1,972 1,594 1,880 1,937 1,327 2,494 2,814 2,119 1,967 2 , 7 90 3 , 3 83 3,626 3,903 2,987 3,46 4 2,606 2,946 2,992 3,863 2,866 4,897 5,279 4,343 5,619 5,639 4,46 6 5,423 2,820 12,901 51 , 1 1 8 33,567 34,769 34,907 26,919 2 9,43 5 28,405 25,440 24,475 24,536 24,762 25,287 25,857 24,666 23,330 22,768 24,007 23,656 23,532 22,955 21,148 21,042 22,707 22,539 22,718 24,242 24,515 24,939 22,824 23,126 23,602 23,043 23,914 23 , 5 5 7 24,651 24,261 23,762 32,030 30,322 29,597 37,417 3 5,2 96 3 6 , 6 8 3 38,421 37,622 36,914 35,445 36,855 37,656 30,787 30,279 30,979 29,077 31,098 30,737 32,417 32,772 32,976 35,877 35,693 35,140 38,909 38,389 38,456 40,959 4 0 , 0 86 39,918 43,612 42,970 42,494 52,625 52,170 51,236 60,549 60,723 59,348 6 7 , 7 83 6 7 , 9 9 6 69,360 74,592 74,252 73,912 86,126 85,165 84,994 108,428 108,841 109,654 126 , 1 6 5 1 2 6 , 5 3 2 1 2 9 , 7 2 0 149,369 149,452 151,538 50,051 33,695 25,793 49,349 33,287 24,076 ... 47,419 33,442 23,911 26,463 23 ,910 22,846 23,225 23 ,210 24,463 23,555 22,558 23,257 23,945 24,179 23,365 33 , 1 0 9 36,188 3 9 , 7 41 41,43 7 43,251 53,383 61,833 68,662 74,870 87,968 110 , 8 8 5 131,172 152,828 36 ,249 39,104 34,414 30,221 31,069 33,350 36,666 39,621 42,140 42,558 54,262 62 ,028 79,219 75,133 89,857 110,787 130,829 156,271 34,154 36,625 39,960 33,613 29,938 30,671 33,985 36,285 39,894 41 ,805 43,663 52,697 62,730 70,629 76,745 91,896 111 ,857 133,056 156,950 1,975 3,613 4,107 3,369 2,154 3 , 7 47 3,989 3,270 3,004 3,601 3 ,43 5 3 , 588 3,513 3,800 4,179 3,322 4,001 3,961 4,900 6,091 6 ,025 6,608 6,194 6 , 0 82 6 , 3 41 6,366 6,46 7 3,166 3,562 3 ,375 3 ,624 3,540 3 , 7 81 4,187 4,226 4,237 4,036 4,884 6,460 6 , 724 6 ,490 6,323 5,813 7 ,477 7 ,961 8,375 9 ,500 11,358 12,619 15,075 16 , 8 0 4 17,794 7 ,672 8,069 9,056 9 ,400 11,188 12,833 15,670 17 , 5 2 9 18,525 6,194 6,762 2,317 3,804 4,079 3,220 3,118 3,121 3,621 3,429 3,610 3,490 3,770 4,302 4,048 4,590 4,236 4 , 7 53 5,830 6,959 6 ,714 6,416 5,982 6,623 5,896 6,721 7,53 2 7,101 8,404 8,217 9,836 11,061 13,43 3 15,379 16,854 18,609 2,523 3,591 3 ,86 7 3,758 3,253 3,917 3,455 3,607 3,631 3,176 3,711 4,256 4,057 4,674 4,035 5,214 5,061 6,769 6,571 5,655 6,540 7,130 6,597 7,001 6,719 7,027 8,023 9,072 9,361 11,537 13,264 15,334 17,189 18,953 3,133 4,196 3,621 3 ,041 3,049 2,950 2 ,911 3,328 3,86 8 3 ,117 3 ,097 3,254 3,636 3,692 3,734 3,720 4,176 4,356 3,566 4,069 5,521 7,279 6,022 6,715 7,302 5,771 6,107 5,868 3 ,487 3,649 3,665 3,713 4,136 4,203 3,768 4,255 5,315 6,404 6 ,343 6,838 6,519 5,712 5,766 6,598 7 ,742 8,040 8,394 10 , 4 9 4 11,193 13,889 16 ,312 16 , 9 7 5 18,405 7 ,962 7,229 8,119 9,638 10,339 11 ,425 13,809 15,050 18,455 19,181 2,983 4,229 3,981 3,062 3,447 3,288 3,412 3,686 3,607 3 , 6 82 3,80 8 4,149 4,193 3,949 4,261 5,599 6,43 4 6,663 6 ,47 3 6,276 5,959 5,502 6,527 7,584 7,251 7,53 0 8,046 8,592 9,993 11,993 14,014 16,881 17,463 19,46 9 NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are r e p r i n t e d f o r the convenience of the user. 9,411 9,43 9 6,542 3,510 3,596 5,210 4,213 7,413 6,319 5,941 6,358 6,562 6,80 2 7,052 7,383 10,132 10,632 10,758 8,639 8,032 7,483 8,925 8,636 10,985 11,517 10,886 13,257 18,255 13,657 20,295 23,513 34,471 31,057 32,501 10,671 4,276 4,128 4,107 2,799 5,395 4,226 5,511 5,949 6 ,601 6,169 6,087 7,573 6 ,706 7,507 10,646 10,955 10,946 8,577 7,612 8,991 8,43 7 8,221 10,352 11,156 11,172 13,502 13,707 16,829 20,292 27,674 27,834 32,665 34,189 9,684 8,586 1,614 3,665 4 , 6 40 5,797 5,084 5,912 5,337 5,187 7 , 2 93 7,80 4 6,082 6,039 8,773 10,121 10,413 10,894 8,486 9,391 8,764 9,067 9,631 10,581 9,341 1 3 , 7 40 14,858 15,420 17,473 22,247 23,332 32,930 28,423 45,470 40,236 33,267 20,642 13,288 14,418 20,766 18,769 24,414 23,094 23,237 25,982 28,456 27,960 27,093 30,057 39,713 42,328 42,054 35,445 33,417 33,554 35,956 35,158 41,270 42,974 49,148 54,159 61,885 64,187 81,051 96,778 128,622 12 9 , 4 4 6 155,301 END OF PERIOD 45,535 33,673 23,512 26,168 ,22., 10 7 23,684 22,452 23,022 2 4 , 2 41 24,547 44,707 33,716 23 ,034 26,344 22,140 23,755 22 ,323 23,220 23,955 24,831 23,008 23 ,042 26,496 26,105 34,942 34,583 36,831 36,993 40,178 4 0 , 1 2 7 33,234 3 2 , 9 1 2 30 , 0 8 5 29,703 31,450 31,546 34,255 34,026 36,869 36,682 39,772 39,429 41 ,46 8 41,845 47,385 47,366 55,479 54,775 63,440 63,006 63,757 6 9 , 9 1 0 78,183 77,777 92 ,575 91,354 111,866 113 ,647 131,130 1 3 9 , 0 6 2 159,226 1 6 8 , 3 2 1 40,050 33,186 23 , 3 7 4 26,518 22,062 23,755 21,599 22,866 24,522 24,430 23,050 23,275 2 6 , 7 46 35,064 37,033 39,587 3 2 , 7 81 30 ,077 31,046 34,225 36,839 40,137 41 , 3 0 9 48,497 55,771 64,470 70,006 79,936 93,827 119,788 141 ,820 172,010 35,974 30,030 24,526 26,129 22,369 23,682 21,203 22,931 24,659 24,036 23,595 23.698 28,355 35,668 37,490 38,472 31 , 4 9 4 30,541 3 2 , 7 42 34,976 37,817 40,198 41,866 50,761 58,986 67,663 73,179 84,883 105,418 125,570 150,842 DEFENSE DEPARTMENT NET OUTLAYS, MILITARY FUNCTIONS AND MILITARY ASSISTANCE (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1,7 83 3,412 4,022 3,643 3,046 3,059 3,580 3,475 3,552 3,537 3,759 4,096 4,177 4,258 3,899 4,618 6 ,021 6,346 6,714 6,485 6,162 6,205 6,377 6,625 7,503 6,90 8 8,017 8,271 9,466 10,652 12,932 14,689 16,772 17,801 Annual TOTAL FOR PERIOD 10,470 10,966 8,358 2,006 3 , 3 83 4,364 5,246 5,578 5,489 5,508 6,162 8,003 7,503 7 . 2 96 6,394 8,814 10,328 9,456 9 , 7 43 8 . 3 82 8,316 9,527 8,670 9,352 10,960 13,350 12,542 14,503 16,228 18,217 22,259 33,387 37,301 43,141 DEFENSE DEPARTMENT GROSS UNPAID OBLIGATIONS OUTSTANDING (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 35,974 30,030 24,526 26,129 22,369 23,682 21 , 2 0 3 22,931 24,659 24,036 23,595 23,698 28,355 35,668 37,490 38,472 31 , 4 9 4 30,541 32,742 34,976 37,817 40,198 41 ,866 50,761 58,986 67,663 73,179 84,883 105,418 125,570 150,842 IV Q 3,129 3 , 7 42 3,847 3,160 3,069 3,364 3,173 3,758 3,631 3,628 3,837 4,208 4,188 3,918 4,449 5,521 6,399 6,495 6,747 6,136 6,139 6,237 6,490 6,973 7,285 7,892 8,215 9,026 10,139 12,193 14,277 15,972 1 7 , 7 81 18,687 51,118 33,567 26,919 25,440 24,762 24,666 24,007 22,955 22,707 24,242 22,824 23,043 24,651 32,030 37,417 38,421 35,445 30,787 29,077 32,417 35,877 3 8,90 9 40,959 43,612 52,625 60,549 67,996 74,592 86,126 109,654 129,720 151 , 5 3 8 47,419 33,442 23,911 26,463 23,555 22,558 23,257 23,945 24,179 23,365 34,154 36,625 39,960 33,613 29,938 30,671 33,985 36,285 39,894 41,805 43,663 52,697 62,730 70,629 76,745 91,896 111 ,857 133,056 156,950 40,050 33,186 23,374 26,518 22,062 23,755 21,599 22,866 24,522 24,430 23,050 23,275 2 6 , 7 46 35,064 37,033 39,587 32,781 30,077 31 ,0 46 34,225 36,839 40,137 41 , 3 0 9 48,497 55,771 64,470 70,006 79,936 93,827 119,788 141 ,820 172,010 40,050 33,186 23,374 26,518 22,062 23,755 21,599 22,866 24,522 24,430 23,050 23,275 26,746 35,064 37,033 39,587 3 2 , 7 81 30,077 31,046 34,225 36,839 40,137 41 , 3 0 9 48,497 55,771 64,470 70,006 79,936 93,827 119,788 141,820 172,010 TOT 3,167 3,843 3 ,721 3 ,108 3,010 • 3,399 3 ,416 3,661 3,630 3,645 4,001 4 , 2 90 4,091 4,030 4,423 5,515 6,375 6,80 5 6,764 6 ,094 6,070 6,303 6 ,507 7,398 7,358 7,330 8,687 8,762 10,448 12 , 2 2 4 14,548 17 ,087 17,329 20,152 3,224 3,965 3,631 3 ,160 3,123 3,359 3,335 3,681 3,617 3,752 4,054 4,122 4,163 3,958 4,639 5,627 6,022 6,842 6,553 6,341 6,217 6,232 6,151 7,451 7,518 7,659 8,484 9,407 10,887 11 , 9 9 2 15,298 16 , 7 7 9 18,726 19,899 5,388 10,485 11 ,990 10,612 9,367 9,140 10,689 10,273 10,730 10,636 11,231 1 2 , 3 43 11 , 7 5 2 12,313 11,852 14,152 18,826 18,999 19,919 21 ,985 21,560 23,454 25,139 28,370 32,910 3 8,190 43,916 50,634 54,043 6,994 11,142 11,935 10,248 9,522 10,204 10,638 10,411 10,865 10,206 11 , 2 6 2 12,745 12,331 13,501 12,307 14,851 17,351 20,452 19,775 18,394 18,335 20,475 18,687 20,484 21,346 21,800 24,496 26,345 28,597 33,786 39,530 4 6 , 3 83 51,572 56,087 9 ,027 11,753 11 ,470 9,220 9,593 9,492 10,687 10 , 8 0 9 10,948 11,081 11 , 2 4 1 12,461 12,752 11,283 12,585 16 ,435 20,117 19,028 20,026 20,097 17 , 4 4 2 17,375 18,993 2 1 , 2 96 22,955 22,185 24,205 26 , 6 2 4 30,826 34,611 41 ,712 48,243 52,893 57,055 9,520 11,550 11,199 9,428 9 ,202 10,122 9,924 11 ,100 10,878 11,025 11 ,892 12,620 12,442 11,90 6 13,511 16,663 18,796 20,142 20,064 18,571 18,426 18,772 19,148 21,822 22,161 22,681 2 5 , 3 86 27,195 31 , 4 7 4 36,409 44,123 49,83 8 53,836 58,738 30,929 44,930 46,594 39,508 37,684 38,958 41,938 42,593 43,421 42,948 45,626 50,169 49,277 49,003 50,255 62,101 74,404 7 8,7 87 79,658 76,236 72,648 75,448 7 5,82 7 83,521 88,447 88,426 97,541 105,303 119,267 137,716 163,555 188,380 208,935 225,923 (DECEMBER 1985) 99 C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. Feb. Mar. 602. 1951... 1952... 1953.. . 1954... 1955... 1956.., 1957... 1958... 1959... 196 0 . . . 1961.., 1962... 1963.. . 1964... 1965... 1966... 196 7 . . . 1968... 1969... 1970.. . 1971.. . 1972... 1973.., 1974... 1975.., 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980,, . 1981... 1982,.. 1983... 1984... 1985.. . 970 1 ,250 1,041 962 1,168 1,289 1,653 1 ,423 1,314 1,534 1,622 1 ,667 987 2,052 1 ,228 2,298 2,639 2,814 2,161 3,406 3,601 4a074 4,955 7,171 9,498 9,113 9,677 9,368 13,281 17,419 18,502 1 8 , 5 84 17,232 17,889 1,022 1,236 971 1,047 1,198 1,290 1,577 1,322 1,256 1,554 1,708 1,819 2,143 2,076 1,623 2,353 2,582 2,775 2,266 3,546 3,694 3,824 5,070 7,549 8,812 8,935 9,900 9,946 13,627 16,984 1 9 , 7 88 18,614 16,312 17,208 1 ,080 1 , 281 1,001 862 1,159 1,348 1,381 1.385 1,:»26 l,i>41 1,755 1 ,664 1,954 2,067 2,739 2,5110 2,51!4 2 ,43 9 3, I t 8 3,375 3,790 3,868 5,311 7,631) 8,720 9,03( 10,16) 11,150 14,317 18,265 21,278 18,46 2 16,690 17,906 604. Apr. May June July Sept. Aug. Oct. Nov. 1,101 1,004 951 ,111 I ,260 ,509 ,546 ,349 1,328 L ,685 1,80 9 1,542 1,943 2,150 2,349 2,616 2,415 2,631 3,342 3,688 2,669 4,316 6,585 8,687 9,246 9,779 9,364 12,906 16,700 19,217 19,163 16,671 17,033 18,411 1,273 1,026 1,035 1,147 1,215 1,360 1,534 1 ,401 1,376 1,673 1,738 1,717 1,946 2,183 2,378 2,491 2,671 2,972 3,398 3,499 3,196 4,47 3 6,879 8,978 9,426 9,609 9,486 13,460 16,938 18,715 19,153 15,852 17,063 18,395 Dec. II Q 3,072 3,767 3,013 2,871 3,525 3,927 5,111 4,130 3,896 4,629 5,085 5,150 5,084 6,195 5,590 7,181 7,745 8,028 7,615 10,327 11,085 11,766 15,336 22,350 27,030 27,084 2 9 , 7 44 30,964 41,225 52,668 59,968 55,660 50,234 53,003 3,521 3,330 3.030 3,374 3,415 4,249 4,973 4 , 0 80 3,982 4,914 4,836 5,445 5,663 6,237 6,940 7,216 7,739 8,46 5 9,765 10,798 11,049 11,673 1 6 , 7 83 24,096 25,726 28,693 30,582 35,687 42,922 54,654 58,435 54,952 48,709 53,203 EXPORTS. IiXCLUDING MILITARY AID SHIPMENTS (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1,256 1,138 1,024 1,196 1,113 1,394 1,739 1,364 1,305 1,627 1,637 1,80 4 1,927 2,081 2,406 2,316 2,608 2,855 3,318 3,410 3,631 3,82 0 5,494 8,116 8,718 9 , 3 80 9,955 11,632 13,988 18,56 7 1 9 ,7 86 18,005 16,095 17,520 1,133 1,129 1,008 1,087 1,132 1,413 1,560 1,379 1,320 1,644 1,578 1,764 1,899 2,076 2,299 2,416 2,549 2,740 3,268 3,661 3,746 3,882 5,561 7,654 8,250 9,575 10,531 11,787 14,106 17,647 18,899 18,124 15,655 17,978 1,132 1,063 998 1,091 1,170 1,442 1,674 1,337 1,357 1,643 1,621 1,877 1,837 2,080 2,235 2,484 2,582 2,870 3,179 3,727 3,672 3,971 5,728 8,326 8,758 9,738 10,096 12,268 14,828 18,440 19,750 18,823 16,959 17,705 1,234 970 1,011 1,076 1,223 1,412 1,617 1,361 1,397 1,711 1,698 1 ,750 1,83 9 2,118 2,300 2,46 9 2,601 2,858 3,182 3,704 3,573 4,074 5,865 8,330 8,890 9,994 10,380 11,669 15,706 18,267 19,289 18,060 16,486 19,154 1,233 1,012 1,026 1,067 1,215 ,454 .,617 1,365 1,43 2 1 ,660 1,695 .,709 1,912 2,095 2,329 2,46 0 2,56 6 2,950 3,366 3,591 3,666 4,196 6,042 8,446 9,043 9,831 9,698 12,291 15,754 19,086 19,031 17,463 16,582 18,123 III Q IQ IV Q TOTAL FOR PI RIOD 1,233 1,028 1,154 1,056 1,235 1,586 1,605 1,354 1,528 1,661 1,669 1,898 1,964 2,237 2,291 2,502 2,597 3,211 3,341 3,553 4,487 4,176 6,420 8,426 9,118 9,846 11,044 13,288 15,843 18,828 19,551 17,320 17,257 18,210 1,309 1,016 1,073 1,130 1,226 1,836 1,493 1,339 1,493 1,631 1,700 1,811 2,059 2,394 2,362 2,46 7 2,677 2,977 3,280 3,56 9 3,881 4,558 6,949 8,865 9 , 2 80 10,457 11,001 13,299 16,753 19,251 18,885 16,347 17,298 19,142 EXPORTS OF DOMESTIC AGRICULTURAL P RODUCTS (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 3,700 3,010 3,191 3,199 3,673 4,452 4,839 4,080 4,357 5,032 5,062 5,357 5,715 6,450 6,920 7,431 7,764 9,019 9,889 10,646 11,726 12,446 18,327 25,202 27,051 29,671 31,122 3 7 , 2 48 47,303 56,181 57,871 52,843 50,325 55,487 3,683 3,046 3,059 3,388 3,701 4,705 4,573 4,089 4,197 4,989 5,247 5,070 5,948 6,727 7,089 7,574 7,763 8 , 5 80 10,020 10,756 9 , 7 46 13,347 20,413 26,530 27,952 29,845 29,851 39,665 50,391 57,183 57,201 48,870 51,394 55,948 1,694 1,755 1,589 1,526 1,728 2,011 1,761 2,816 5,260 5.591 5,657 5,841 4 040 3 431 2,848 3 054 3,198 4,170 4 506 3 ,855 3 955 4,832 5 024 5,034 5 ,584 6 348 6,229 6,874 6 , 3 80 6,227 5,936 7,247 7,698 9,407 17,681 21,999 21,886 22,998 7,684 10,079 10,787 10,397 8,101 9,263 9,355 29,384 34,755 41,256 43,338 36,623 36,108 37,814 1962 . . . 228 547 569 579 186 541 6 80 766 1,111 1,774 2,369 1,917 1 76 2 1,818 2,531 3,442 4,295 3,258 3,128 3,457 13,968 13,203 12,26 2 12,854 1 4 , 2 91 17,333 19,495 16,367 16,407 19,626 20,190 20,973 22,427 25,690 26,691 29,379 3,0,934 34,063 37,332 42,659 43,549 49,199 70,823 98,092 107,652 115,223 121,232 1 4 3 , 6 81 181,860 220,630 233,677 212,193 200,486 217,865 TOTAL FOR PI.RIOD 1951 . . . 1952 . . . 1953 . . . 1 964 , . . 196 5 . , . 1966.. . 196 7 . . . 1968. .. 1969... 1970. .. 1971. . 1972.. 1973., 1974.. 1975. . 1976.. 197 7 1978.. 1979,. 1980.. 1981.. 1982.. 1983.. 1984.. 1985.. Annual 349 554 542 573 246 56 9 633 703 1,142 1,82 9 1,830 1,630 662 594 526 518 490 53 3 658 606 1,268 1,869 1,703 1,668 550 550 526 528 609 565 636 628 1,251 1,978 1,723 ) ,892 538 552 542 491 576 566 623 722 1,412 1,882 1,575 1,950 550 572 539 475 526 612 624 771 1,442 1,806 1,480 1,948 595 531 512 503 541 614 632 754 1,370 1,842 1.735 2,039 500 624 513 544 494 610 636 796 1,731 1,698 1,872 2,058 515 601 523 509 518 639 866 83 7 1,726 1,654 1,932 2,160 56 2 595 507 441 612 694 447 882 1 ,706 1,691 2,060 2,231 541 580 560 516 565 628 546 927 1 ,769 1 ,978 1 ,821 1,750 591 5 80 522 56 9 551 689 768 1,007 1,785 1,922 1,776 1,860 2,058 2,444 3,484 3,977 3,590 2,985 3,198 2,363 2,609 3,325 4,201 3,225 2,811 3,336 2,428 2,540 3,329 3,604 3 ,400 2,891 3,030 2,861 2,597 3,326 3,708 3,527 2,715 3,245 2,904 2,828 3,085 3,256 3,332 2,977 2,715 2,392 2,954 3,286 3,089 2,789 3,072 3,236 2,774 3,019 3,557 3,202 2,763 2,973 3,022 2,512 3,032 3,596 3,563 2,648 3,322 3,153 2,596 3,309 3,485 3,735 2 , 6 81 2,979 2,799 2,533 3,459 3,46 4 3,442 2 , 7 83 3,109 3,242 2,555 3,311 3,83 8 3,220 2,637 3,175 3.314 1,239 1,695 1,637 1,670 922 1 . 6 43 1,971 2,075 3,521 5,472 5,902 5,215 5 87 8 6,239 7 , 5 84 10,251 12,473 10,073 8,924 9,991 1,638 1,674 1,607 1,494 1,711 1 , 7 43 1,883 2,121 4,105 5,666 4,778 5 , 7 90 6 57 9 8,193 7,965 9,740 10,568 10.259 8,583 8,990 1,610 1 , 7 56 1,548 1,556 1,553 1,863 2,134 2 , 3 87 4,827 5,194 5,539 6,257 5 841 7,678 9,005 10,43 9 9,854 8,200 9,367 9,411 TOTAL FOR PI RIOD (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1951 . . . 1952... 1953 . . . 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959 . . . 1962 . . . 1963 , . . 1964. .. 1965... 1966... 1967... 196 8 . . . 1969... 1970... 1971 . . . 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978.,. 1979,. . 1980... 1981 . . . 1982... 1983 . . . 1984... 1985... 230 43 5 521 523 40 8 628 732 775 880 1,155 1 ,672 1 , 7 80 1,831 2,084 2 ,6 82 3,297 4,058 4,346 3,644 4,009 322 439 502 530 43 7 678 6 91 7 80 911 1 ,197 1,632 1,817 1.89X 2,187 2,832 3,454 4,155 4,054 3,359 3,848 480 470 490 43 8 622 647 724 773 925 1,270 1 ,626 1,806 1,859 2,450 2,917 3,423 4,352 3,997 3,499 3 ,764 451* 43 21 494 539 647 651 720 757 926 1,288 1,760 1,818 1,80 8 2,415 2,706 3,571 4,311 3,932 3,513 3,811 43 2 448 508 519 622 6 80 680 767 975 1,338 1,720 1,836 1,835 2,472 2,859 3,620 4,160 3,957 3,433 3,976 43 5 468 498 515 594 718 700 783 997 1,339 1,772 1,871 1,868 2,427 3,034 3,943 4,388 4,211 3,265 3,746 426 484 485 526 608 755 6 86 776 1,028 1,398 1,770 1,952 1,862 2,451 3,022 3,985 4,567 4,305 3,655 3 , 7 90 43 3 457 476 557 652 706 663 814 ,041 ,509 .752 ,675 ,732 ,528 3,241 4,230 6,207 3,856 3 ,290 3,878 414 473 49 7 573 616 718 871 818 1,090 1,481 1,750 1,883 2,133 2,815 3,153 4,027 4,559 4,197 3,718 3 , 6 40 These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. 100 47 2 491 458 512 678 785 5 82 7 81 1,115 1,552 1,814 1,821 1,556 2,625 3,251 4,117 4,338 3,82 9 3,689 4,007 450 475 510 5 86 657 701 672 862 1,107 1,624 1 ,770 1,814 1 , 7 91 2,718 3,172 3,968 4,366 3 , 6 86 3 , 6 86 3,905 463 486 520 518 630 720 7 83 860 1 ,111 1.523 1,843 1,983 2,056 2,824 3,240 3,819 4,005 3,719 3 , 6 83 4,128 1,032 1.344 1.513 1,491 1 ,46 7 1,953 2,147 2,328 2,716 3,622 4,930 5,403 5,582 6,721 8,431 10,174 12,565 12,397 10,502 11,621 1,323 1,349 1,500 1,573 1,863 2,049 2,100 2,307 2,898 3,965 5,252 5,525 5,511 7,314 8,599 11,134 12,859 12,100 10 , 2 1 1 11.533 1,273 1,414 1,458 1 , 6 56 1,876 2,179 2,220 2,408 3.159 4,388 5,272 5,510 5,727 7,794 9,416 12,242 15,333 12,358 10,663 11,308 1,385 1,452 1,488 1,616 1,965 2,206 2,037 2,503 3.333 4,699 5,427 5,618 5,403 8,167 9,663 11,904 12,709 11,234 11,058 12,040 5.013 ,559 ,959 ,336 ,171 J.387 1,504 K546 12,106 16,674 20,881 22,056 22,223 29,996 36,109 45,454 53,466 48,089 42,434 46,502 (DECEMBER 1985) C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. Feb. Apr. Mar. May June Aug. July Sept. • Oct. Nov. Dec. IQ Ml Q HQ 612, GENERAL IMPORTS (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) IV Q Annual TOTAL FOR PERIOD 1951.. . 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957., . 1958,.. 1959... I960.. . 93 9 856 90 4 855 886 1,045 ,057 1,053 ,166 ,247 927 881 902 852 897 1*063 1,056 1 ,022 1,202 1,353 997 904 923 762 907 ,034 ,118 ,051 ,220 ,291 1,00 5 870 998 945 902 1,019 1,100 1,051 1,218 1,353 986 839 931 848 939 1,040 L.060 L ,066 ,330 ,278 967 882 913 935 928 1,069 ,058 ,037 ,301 ,276 940 846 899 847 953 1,063 1,111 1,023 1 ,227 1,268 885 897 910 851 952 1 ,065 1,099 1,046 1,289 1,245 838 915 968 818 992 1,132 1 ,074 1 ,083 1,411 1,210 80 0 899 818 80 5 1,045 1,055 1,086 1,091 1 ,184 1,197 845 90 4 873 821 1,045 969 1,06 5 1,156 1,292 1,162 812 978 83 7 874 971 1,050 1,080 1,139 1,353 1,142 2,863 2,641 2,729 2,46 9 2 , 6 90 3,142 3,231 3 ,126 3,588 3,891 2,958 2,591 2,842 2,728 2,769 3,128 3,218 3,154 3,849 3,907 2,663 2,658 2,777 2,516 2,897 3,260 3,284 3,152 3,927 3,723 2,457 2,781 2,528 2,500 3,061 3,074 3,231 3,386 3,829 3,501 10,96 7 10,717 10,873 10,215 11 , 3 8 4 12,615 12,982 12,792 15,207 15,018 1962.,. 1963,.. 1964,.. 1965... 1966... ,320 ,089 L ,421 ,199 1,966 1,325 1,510 1,46 2 1,606 2,013 ,339 ,485 ,518 ,861 2,050 1,368 1,412 1,525 1,811 2,090 ,396 1,409 ,53 5 ,797 .,060 ,355 ,43 2 ,525 ,848 ,102 1 ,341 1,447 1,576 1,7 42 2,216 1,347 1 ,507 1,585 1 ,825 2,137 1,479 1,455 1,559 1,858 2,288 1,316 1 ,459 1,550 1,885 2,303 1,419 1,459 1,688 1,941 2,195 1,3 80 1,488 1,655 1,911 2,196 2,588 2,982 3,219 3,629 4,515 5,414 7,997 7,720 9,742 12,792 14,320 15,657 24,866 21,029 20,018 19,528 26,948 2,604 3,183 3,262 3,774 4,417 5,360 8,237 , 8,218 / 9,940 -12,127 14,773 16,061 19,831 22,249 17,714 19,914 28,074 -.755 3,256 3,337 3,908 4,486 5,703 8,460 7,470 9,489 11,47 8 14,295 16,805 20,658 21,232 20,477 21,446 26 , 0 1 2 ,7 92 ,152 ,265 ,037 ,46 8 ,775 8,870 7,311 10,578 13,676 14,226 17,201 20,427 22,005 21 ,187 20,916 25,276 2,725 3,074 3,254 3,83 2 4,565 5,829 9,214 8,110 11,028 12,654 14,896 17,116 19,189 20,114 19,849 21,828 31,334 2 ,872 3,163 3 , 3 46 3,913 4,726 6,010 9,504 8,166 10,738 12,530 14,412 18,659 19,719 23,242 22,930 2,951 3,078 3,423 4,179 4,612 5,644 9,002 8,388 10,972 13,158 15,246 18,632 19,934 21 , 2 7 4 20,581 22,451 28,409 2,736 3,192 3,498 3,46 9 4,738 5,996 9,026 8,533 10,810 12,996 15,091 19,271 20,327 23,077 21,006 24,333 26,783 2,883 3,180 3,428 3,456 5,148 6,684 9,239 8,46 4 10,951 12,778 15,238 19,013 19,856 22,508 18,892 23,115 27,331 2,90 8 3,078 3,402 4,169 5,002 6,291 9,647 8,670 11,566 13,661 15,300 20,156 21,427 19,746 19,154 22,976 25,933 4,119 4,253 4,585 5,456 6,252 6 500 8,151 9,591 9,864 11 ,719 13,371 16,838 25,567 22,999 30,007 37,281 43,294 50,067 60,916 65,486 59,378 62,276 79,362 4,167 4,409 4,720 5,425 6,641 f. e aa 8,548 9,315 10,023 11,924 13,903 17,483 27,720 24,664 32,738 38,342 44,554 54,407 58,842 64,630 63,360 66,993 86,609 4,115 4,406 4,893 5,737 6,694 7 1 ii 8,527 9,450 10,328 11,094 14,888 18,971 27,912 25,667 33,327 39,435 45,629 58,440 61,610 65,331 59,052 70,424 80,047 1 6 , 3 90 17,138 18,684 21,364 25,542 2,592 2,672 3,279 3,564 4,473 5,483 7,534 8,133 9,302 12,990 14,617 14,919 21,834 21,916 1 9 , 570 18,804 26,420 3,984 4,084 4,401 4,666 6,029 6 6 99 7 ,867 7,656 9 ,720 10,792 13,424 16 , 1 4 1 2 2,196 25 , 9 9 8 28,385 36,476 42,598 47,389 67,881 65,561 62,161 58,459 79,572 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977,., 1978... 1979.,. 1980.. . 1981.,. 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... 2,687 2,002 3,222 3,599 4,43 6 5,244 6,665 10,145 9,341 10,694 13,661 16,813 21,181 22,616 22,573 20,127 26,204 614. IMPORTS OF PETROLEUM AMD PETROLEUM PRODUCTS (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 33,226 36,043 39,952 45,563 55,583 69,476 103 , 3 2 1 99,305 124,614 151,534 176,052 210,285 245,262 260,982 243 ,952 258,048 325,726 TOTAL FOR PERIOD 1 952 1 954 1959... 1960 162 1965... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976.. . 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983... 185 192 208 226 219 332 462 1,167 3,080 2,475 3,217 3,000 3,580 5,614 7,359 6 ,810 4,481 165 172 187 206 252 220 334 456 1,512 1,781 2,338 3,370 3,626 3,634 7,741 8,018 4,396 3,183 188 171 183 182 235 237 250 324 487 2,299 2,387 2,494 3,611 3,162 3,83 2 5,185 6,919 3,894 3,749 172 179 182 237 2 49 342 492 1,560 1,211 2,361 4,191 3,094 3,667 6,991 5,992 4 , 2 90 3,603 166 206 180 215 203 270 331 550 2,117 1,7 46 2,118 3,192 3,038 4,000 7,191 6,329 4,180 5,43 2 209 167 194 203 229 276 346 588 2,063 1,354 2,563 3,734 3,229 4,199 6 ,611 6,521 4,855 4,215 1 150 162 228 215 200 288 350 520 2,306 1,990 2,887 3,415 3,194 4,692 5,153 5,400 5.624 4,622 4 67 4 176 170 155 182 211 234 293 352 703 2,274 2 ,008 2,860 3,266 3,257 4,949 6,018 6,335 5,731 4,597 4 021 160 213 218 221 314 387 700 2,200 2,515 2,716 3,436 3,307 5 ,662 4,982 5,709 4,903 4,929 4 261 173 173 210 223 231 286 3 90 787 2,281 2 ,320 2,834 3 , 3 86 3,347 6 , 0 50 5,876 6,123 5,433 4,818 4 007 170 172 199 207 233 335 406 942 2,308 2,140 2,968 3,410 3,489 5,351 6,051 6,483 4,757 4,459 4 63 7 192 179 198 238 256 335 416 972 2,335 ,360 ,051 ,233 ,588 ,502 .254 + .636 t,694 3,997 4 298 498 529 558 596 715 688 1 ,008 1,410 4,239 6,072 7,174 10,778 9 ,720 10,881 20,346 21,369 15,496 11,267 14 56 8 563 496 556 556 653 669 7 96 1,001 1,625 6,479 5,487 7,175 10,537 9,429 12,031 18,987 19,769 12,929 13,396 15 80 7 477 623 644 655 895 1,089 1,923 6,780 6,513 8,463 10,117 9,758 15,303 16,153 17 , 4 4 4 16,258 14,148 12 956 535 2 ,092 524 607 668 720 956 1,212 2,701 6,924 6,820 8,853 10,029 10,424 17,903 18,181 17,242 14,884 13,274 12 942 2,086 2,343 2,56 0 2,764 3,323 4,300 7,614 24,270 24,814 31 , 7 9 8 41,526 39,104 56,036 73,771 75 , 577 59,396 52,325 55 9 06 1985... 616, IMPORTS OF AUTOMOBILES AND PARTS (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) TOTAL FOR PERIOD 1955 . 1 956 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965 . . . 1966.., 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971., . 1973.. . 1974... 1975... 1976.. . 1977.. . 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981 . . . 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... 31 106 176 299 293 417 482 780 862 742 1 ,085 1,0 83 1,529 1,963 1 ,899 2 ,264 2,389 2,329 3,684 54 114 161 273 315 404 541 731 877 654 1,041 1,248 1,661 1,706 2,035 1 ,742 2,135 3,019 3,751 61 125 169 229 325 404 561 753 797 823 1,117 1,299 1,581 1,589 1,960 2,125 2,596 2,676 3 , 6 80 89 108 159 260 399 457 533 725 898 776 1,221 1,266 1 ,715 1,956 1,710 2,042 2,389 2,746 3,838 59 123 197 292 383 428 576 54 113 184 329 392 388 529 814 901 731 976 1,183 1,659 1,851 1 ,999 2,299 2,785 2,819 3,635 1 1 1 1 1 3 J 7 3 821 841 7 82 ,169 ,360 ,684 ,730 ,843 ,257 ,6 26 ,823 ,6 83 64 130 201 314 391 419 525 806 928 879 1,025 1,315 1,812 1,815 2,103 2,108 2,455 2,936 3,947 74 57 76 34 +3 8 + 98 >72 49 146 183 294 401 332 660 749 859 938 1 ,055 1,328 1,666 2,113 2,139 2,635 2,795 2,813 3,773 722 H2 161 1 , 138 1 , 428 1 , 32 2 1 , S49 2, 1 ,943 2,370 2,636 4,302 NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. no 84 139 206 346 443 446 549 6 81 858 80 9 888 871 1,426 1,872 1,80 5 2,189 2,46 4 2 ,444 3,233 3,600 93 144 211 371 421 438 579 76 8 840 812 873 1,128 1 ,46 5 1,875 1,984 2,314 2,239 2,130 3,415 3,817 95 213 231 365 428 426 642 694 631 814 1,013 1 ,221 1,479 1,822 1 ,871 1,897 2,164 2,189 3,801 3,732 146 345 506 801 933 1,225 1,584 2 ,264 2,536 2,219 3,243 3,630 4,771 5,258 5,894 6,131 7 ,120 8,024 11,115 202 344 540 881 1,174 1 ,273 1 ,638 1 963 2,360 2,640 2,289 3,366 3,80 9 5,058 5,537 5,552 6,598 7,800 8,388 11,156 187 433 560 942 1,230 1,249 1,857 272 496 648 1,082 1,292 1,310 1,770 2,277 2 , 6 99 2,678 3,318 4,071 5,300 5,777 6,512 6,686 7,620 8,385 12,022 2,329 2,43 5 2,774 3,220 4,370 5,569 5,660 6,400 6,867 6,763 10,449 11,149 80 7 1,618 2,254 3,706 4,629 5,057 6,849 7 96 0 9,230 10,310 9,960 13,147 15,880 20,698 22,232 24,358 26 , 2 8 2 29,303 35,246 45,442 (DECEMBER 1985) 101 C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year II Q IQ III Q Annual IV Q 6 7 . BANK RATES ON SHORT-TERM BUSINESS LOANS ( I EHCENT) <3> AVERAGE 3 .02 3 .07 3 .06 3 .27 1953 1954 3 .54 3 72 3 .73 3 gQ 3 .74 3 56 3.76 3 .55 1956 195 7 3 93 4 38 4 14 4 40 4.35 4 83 4.38 4. 85 4 50 5 36 4.99 4.96 5.02 5 .00 5 ,00 5 27 6.31 5 .96 6 .61 8.83 8.07 6.18 6.33 10 .08 11 .64 8.29 7.28 8.64 11 .44 1 5 .81 15 71 17 .23 11.26 10 .95 11 .29 1 951 ' 1960 1 961 196 2 1963 196 4 196 5 1966 I 967 1 96 8 1 96 9 1 970 1971 1972 1973 . . . . . 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 . . . 1979 1 980 1 982 1 983 1984 1985 j 5 34 4.97 4.98 5 00 4 99 4 97 5.55 6.13 6 36 7 .32 8.86 6 .59 5.52 6 .52 9.91 9 ,94 7.54 7 .50 8 90 12.27 15 6 7 19.91 17 13 10 ,20 11.06 * 5 35 4.97 3.01 h t 01 t. 99 4 99 5.82 5 .95 6 .84 7 -86 8 49 6 .01 5.59 7 .35 11.15 8.16 7 , *V4 7 .J>0 8 ,1'6 12,34 17 7 5 19.99 17 11 10 .3,1 12.4H 4.97 4.99 4.99 5 01 4 98 5 00 6.30 5 .95 6 .89 8 .82 8 .50 6 .51 5.84 9.24 12.40 8 .22 7.80 7 .80 9 .92 12 . 3 1 11 56 21 . 1 1 13 27 11 . 0 9 13.29 971 . DIFFUSION INDEX OF NEW ORDERS, MANUFACTURINGACTUAL1 © (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS) 1 951 1952 1 953 1954 . . . . . 1 955 1 956 . 1 957 1958 1 959 1 960 1 961 1 962 1 963 . 196 4 1 965 1 966 1 96 7 . 1968 1969 1970 1 971 1972 . . 1 973 1974..... 1975 1976 1 977 1 978 1979 1980 1981 1 982 1983 1 984 1985 89 60 77 50 76 82 65 42 83 74 52 81 71 80 82 88 71 78 81 66 68 82 88 84 50 80 80 83 85 74 68 32 90 78 62 76 54 84 76 67 50 84 65 62 77 74 84 84 88 72 78 80 64 70 84 90 82 54 80 83 86 81 63 70 50 74 86 68 70 72 56 82 77 62 79 60 72 76 76 83 88 84 69 79 76 60 70 86 88 74 64 78 82 86 73 60 62 52 78 34 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 8? 38 60 49 71 72 59 33 74 68 48 73 64 74 78 82 65 70 70 61 63 74 78 74 52 76 71 73 78 62 60 53 62 80 69 45 64 52 74 70 58 42 78 58 52 72 68 78 80 82 65 73 74 56 64 76 79 76 53 74 74 76 74 54 66 52 66 79 57 48 56 52 76 69 51 76 52 62 70 70 79 80 78 64 72 68 55 66 79 76 71 58 72 74 78 10 It 7 (0 12 71 74 8.21 8.48 6.32 5.82 8.30 11.28 3.65 7.52 7.84 9.80 13.18 15.17 19.56 14.69 10 .64 12.02 AVERAGE 68 76 58 66 84 72 53 68 74 52 75 72 74 82 86 82 72 80 72 55 74 84 86 59 71 78 82 86 78 60 62 56 84 79 71 56 82 77 9 7 2 . DIFFUSION INDEX OF NET P R O F I T S , MFG, AND TRADE— ACTUAL1 © (PERCENT R SING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS) 1 951 1952 1953 1954 1 955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1 96 5 1966 1 967 1 968 1 96 9 1970. 1 971 1972 1 973 1974 3.10 3 49 3.69 3 .61 3 70 4.20 4.62 4 34 5 00 5 .16 4.97 5.00 5.00 4.99 5 ,06 6.00 6.00 6 .68 56 80 63 65 76 74 82 85 86 71 79 77 61 70 84 88 75 60 79 82 85 79 64 66 52 76 85 AVERAGE 50 64 54 62 78 66 46 60 72 50 68 68 70 79 83 76 69 74 66 56 70 80 76 63 66 74 76 78 72 56 60 54 74 74 58 54 75 69 48 75 57 58 71 68 78 80 80 66 72 70 57 66 77 77 71 57 74 74 76 74 57 62 53 68 77 Year 1951 1 952 1953 1954 1 955 1956 1957 1958 . . 1 959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1 965 1966 196 7 1968 196 9 1970 1971 1972 1 973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 58 52 54 52 77 70 50 76 56 63 72 72 79 84 80 64 68 68 52 64 78 77 73 59 74 72 78 71 56 60 50 71 76 52 64 51 63 79 68 47 62 72 52 70 69 70 78 84 79 70 72 65 52 68 82 76 64 65 76 78 78 74 56 59 53 74 76 102 40 68 51 70 76 62 37 74 72 43 75 66 76 79 82 68 70 70 60 62 76 78 76 52 76 72 74 60 63 60 49 58 82 68 50 56 52 76 71 61 44 80 62 54 74 66 79 81 83 66 72 76 55 62 77 60 76 52 77 76 78 74 54 64 48 66 81 68 971, DIFFUSION INDEX OF NEW ORDERS, MANUFACTURING— ANTICIPATED' © (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS) 1 951 1 952 1953 1954 1 955 1956 1957 1 958 1 959 1 960 1961 ... 1 962 1 963 1 964 1 96 5 . 1 966 1 967 1968 196 9 1970 1971 1972 1 973 1974 . 1975 1 976 1977 197 8 197 9 1 980 1981 1 982 1983 . . . 1 984 1985 82 70 74 64 72 79 76 80 77 67 83 69 80 84 86 82 80 82 76 76 82 88 86 72 82 80 82 80 66 74 60 66 83 82 72 83 66 58 82 80 76 58 82 81 67 82 76 82 86 88 82 83 85 71 78 86 90 80 59 84 86 83 84 75 74 68 77 91 63 80 76 68 61 82 76 77 82 76 84 84 88 60 82 83 74 85 86 88 85 70 88 88 88 80 57 76 64 82 90 72 72 72 65 85 75 71 72 82 70 76 74 78 83 85 84 81 81 80 74 81 83 87 80 73 86 84 86 72 62 76 60 85 88 972. DIFFUSION INDEX OF NET PROFITS, MFG. AND TRADE-ANTICIPATED 1 © (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER S PANS) 1 951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1 956 1 957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1 965 1 966 196 7 1 96 8 1 96 9 1971 1972 1973 1974 1 975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 54 56 56 AVERAGE 50 60 52 65 76 65 66 70 52 70 69 74 79 83 73 69 72 62 57 71 80 76 60 69 74 76 78 66 59 54 57 77 72 AVERAGE 80 70 62 30 78 73 82 76 72 80 75 82 85 86 31 82 82 74 80 36 88 83 68 85 84 35 79 65 75 63 7g 89 AVERAGE yi SO 58 58 64 60 72 73 60 78 68 77 80 84 72 69 52 77 75 64 79 72 80 84 86 71 63 54 78 74 74 78 72 82 83 84 70 64 62 79 66 73 71 76 81 84 82 76 72 66 76 72 80 83 84 74 80 78 '' 7fi ftfi A« 80 84 84 79 66 64 84 84 80 59 74 66 80 88 78 83 80 77 67 82 82 83 70 61 72 60 81 84 76 81 83 78 65 30 81 82 78 65 71 63 74 86 75 68 7 71 76 82 80 68 76 78 79 78 66 70 61 64 84 74 82 85 74 58 80 80 82 82 73 69 66 73 86 NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. 'These are copyrighted series used by permission; they may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Annual IV Q 111 Q II Q IQ 960. DIFFUSION INDEX OF NET PROFITS , MANUFACTU R I N G ABOUT 600 COMPANIES' © (PERCENT RISING OVER 4 - Q SPANS) 58 74 72 66 7fi (DECEMBER 1985) C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year IQ III Q II Q IV Q Annual 973. DIFFUSION INDEX OF NET SALES, MFG. AND TRADE-ACTUAL © (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS) 90 54 72 50 76 80 64 40 82 72 49 80 71 80 82 88 71 79 80 70 70 82 86 82 57 82 80 84 87 73 70 63 66 85 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 J959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 ' 79 60 74 50 84 78 67 46 87 63 58 78 74 83 84 88 70 82 84 66 72 82 89 84 58 81 81 86 84 62 74 58 74 84 67 67 71 53 82 78 ... 58 82 58 70 78 76 84 87 85 72 82 78 64 74 85 86 80 66 80 84 88 82 68 71 57 74 82 Year 1951 1952 1933 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 196 2 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 196 9 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 76 61 64 84 74 52 68 78 52 72 76 75 84 86 82 74 84 76 62 76 86 85 70 70 80 85 88 82 66 68 60 80 80 70 54 82 78 (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS) 64 55 56 48 54 58 54 40 56 56 47 56 54 55 60 65 58 57 59 54 48 56 63 58 44 57 60 62 62 58 51 48 48 65 62 56 58 46 56 57 53 44 60 54 50 55 56 58 61 66 58 60 60 54 52 58 62 59 44 58 59 64 60 54 53 46 54 63 58 58 58 49 58 58 ... 48 59 52 54 56 55 59 64 63 58 58 58 51 53 62 60 56 48 58 61 64 60 53 52 46 58 62 IV Q AVERAGE 68 53 82 61 62 78 74 83 85 86 72 82 80 66 73 84 86 79 63 81 82 86 84 67 71 60 74 83 86 68 75 65 72 82 77 84 80 68 86 72 82 85 88 80 82 86 74 78 83 88 86 75 82 82 86 85 72 78 65 68 88 85 70 ... 57 82 81 79 58 87 84 66 84 82 86 87 90 82 86 88 73 80 88 90 78 62 84 86 87 88 80 76 70 78 90 82 68 ... 62 84 79 72 61 86 81 82 86 78 86 88 90 82 86 86 78 86 90 90 86 73 90 90 92 84 63 80 72 84 90 71 73 74 63 86 78 74 72 86 72 82 78 80 86 89 86 82 84 83 76 84 88 88 82 74 87 86 90 78 67 80 65 86 88 60 51 52 60 57 49 49 58 50 53 55 56 60 64 62 58 60 58 50 55 60 60 49 52 58 62 63 58 51 52 46 61 62 56 49 57 58 45 58 53 51 56 55 58 62 64 58 59 59 52 52 59 61 56 47 58 60 63 60 54 52 46 55 63 975. 84 54 53 51 54 68 63 43 62 66 50 64 60 64 68 74 68 68 71 66 62 64 73 78 58 62 74 76 80 67 62 58 54 72 80 48 60 48 62 68 59 46 68 60 50 62 62 66 71 74 66 68 70 61 62 66 76 79 52 65 72 76 76 61 64 52 59 70 72 50 58 47 62 68 ... 48 64 56 56 62 62 67 72 73 65 70 70 62 62 72 75 78 56 68 74 76 73 64 62 52 62 70 58 74 52 50 65 65 53 50 62 54 56 61 63 65 73 74 64 70 68 58 60 71 76 69 57 69 75 78 75 60 63 52 68 70 *56 49 61 67 47 64 59 53 62 62 66 71 74 66 69 70 62 62 68 75 76 56 66 74 76 76 63 63 54 61 70 62 54 57 53 54 57 56 54 56 52 56 54 55 58 62 60 60 60 58 55 58 60 61 53 56 59 59 60 54 56 50 50 62 86 79 74 84 78 85 87 88 82 84 86 75 82 87 89 83 71 86 86 89 84 70 78 68 79 89 62 56 ... 46 56 56 56 50 56 56 52 56 55 56 58 63 60 60 60 56 58 60 63 56 48 60 60 60 60 56 54 51 56 64 . 62 54 ... 50 56 56 53 50 56 56 54 57 54 57 59 63 60 58 60 56 58 61 62 60 54 62 61 62 58 48 56 51 59 64 57 56 54 48 58 56 54 51 57 52 54 54 55 58 59 62 60 60 59 54 56 60 60 58 54 60 59 62 56 50 55 48 60 62 61 55 49 56 56 55 56 55 53 56 54 56 58 62 60 60 60 56 57 60 61 59 52 60 60 61 58 52 55 50 56 63 DIF. INDEX OF LEVEL OF INVENTORIES, MFG. AND TRADE-AVERAGE 1951 1952 1953 1 954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1 961 1962 1963 196 4 1965 1966 196 7 1 96 8 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1 976 1 977 1978 1979 1980 1 981 1982 1983 1984 1985 66 54 52 50 50 60 60 57 60 52 60 56 60 64 66 65 63 66 62 60 61 69 70 64 60 65 67 70 62 63 54 52 66 NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. These are copyrighted series used by permission; they may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. 62 81 80 76 AVERAGE 1951 1952 1953 1954 1 955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 196 3 1964 196 5 1966 1967 1968 196 9 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 AVERAGE 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955. 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966..... 196 7 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 81 70 DIFFUSION INDEX OF NO. OF EMPLOYEES, HFG. AND TRADE-- AVERAGE 58 Annual AVERAGE 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 196 4 1965..... 1966 1967 1 968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 974. ACTUAL © III Q II Q IQ 65 47 ... 46 58 61 59 48 62 60 53 63 60 63 64 68 66 66 68 61 62 66 72 67 54 64 68 70 74 70 61 56 58 70 69 47 ... 48 57 61 54 48 63 58 57 62 58 63 64 69 63 67 66 64 65 66 72 72 50 70 72 73 71 53 66 56 62 70 56 45 54 47 62 58 56 52 62 54 56 58 60 63 66 69 62 66 66 58 65 66 70 72 54 68 70 74 68 56 64 50 64 66 64 48 48 57 60 57 61 58 54 61 58 62 64 68 64 66 66 61 63 65 71 70 56 66 69 71 71 60 64 54 59 68 (DECEMBER 1985) 103 C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year III Q II Q IQ IV Q 1 951 1952 1953 1954 . . . . 1955 1956 1 957 1 958 . . 1959 I960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 92 50 53 44 50 70 70 52 58 58 52 54 50 56 58 70 1968.. ,, . I tjg 9 j 570 1971 Ig7g 1973!!'... 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1 982 1 983 1 984 1985 74 82 80 74 70 82 92 81 80 86 87 92 90 88 72 61 74 977. DIFFUE ION ACTUAL ® 1951 1 952 1953 1 954 . 1955 1956 1 957 1 958 1959 196 0 . . . . 1 961 1962 1 96 3 196 4 1965 1 966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1 971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 . . . . . 1984 1985 86 46 58 44 56 • 68 64 52 60 55 50 53 54 54 61 72 70 76 80 80 76 72 84 96 78 82 86 88 93 38 S)6 (8 60 70 85 42 58 43 60 68 71 54 64 56 51 52 56 56 60 76 74 82 85 85 86 81 89 96 79 80 86 92 95 90 88 67 62 69 53 60 54 54 54 55 56 64 78 72 78 82 78 68 72 86 94 78 80 87 90 92 90 84 63 65 70 63 78 51 48 68 74 60 56 58 52 52 53 55 56 65 76 73 80 82 75 70 74 90 89 78 82 87 91 94 90 82 60 68 '56 46 60 71 68 78 58 60 48 69 79 59 65 54 54 50 60 58 68 82 80 82 86 86 73 82 92 94 81 80 88 93 95 92 84 68 68 65 94 44 53 44 49 61i 64 54 62 54 52 55 52 56 62 78 74 88 91 86 86 73 90 92 80 86 90 91 94 92 94 78 68 72 82 43 52 42 55 66 64 52 65 58 50 52 54 56 61 78 80 88 90 86 84 78 87 97 84 86 86 94 95 91 90 75 72 68 76 52 56 44 66 72 53 59 55 52 54 54 56 62 74 71 77 82 78 72 72 86 93 79 81 86 89 93 90 85 66 64 70 81 50 50 70 78 66 62 64 52 54 54 58 60 70 78 82 85 85 84 74 80 96 91 81 88 90 94 96 90 82 61 70 65 54 47 63 74 57 64 55 52 53 56 58 65 78 78 82 85 86 80 81 92 94 80 83 88 92 96 91 86 67 66 68 AVERAGE 64 79 50 *53 46 58 68 58 *58 62 56 57 54 58 60 67 84 84 83 90 85 73 79 93 96 86 92 92 94 94 94 86 74 J9 '0 II Q IQ 104 Annual AVERAGE 5 54 61 58 70 80 87 92 89 86 74 81 93 92 88 86 92 93 96 90 86 68 72 70 1 951 1952 1953 1 954 1 955 1 956 1957 1 958 1959 1960 1961 1 962 1 963 1964 1 965 1966 1 96 7 1968 1 969 1 970 1971 1 972 1 973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1 982 1 983 1984 . 1985 90 62 56 1951 1 952 1953 I 954 1 955 1956 1 957 1958 1959 I960 92 68 56 53 51 71 72 88 58 82 50 50 54 7fi 46 55 66 64 52 60 58 56 56 56 58 61 72 68 75 78 78 75 72 83 92 68 80 86 87 88 83 89 68 70 76 90 56 84 50 *62 65 55 59 52 61 62 50 54 70 74 62 66 68 55 58 55 60 62 76 78 79 11 80 70 80 88 87 80 80 84 88 90 90 82 68 72 73 82 80 80 82 78 86 94 74 82 86 90 90 92 89 78 64 76 50 66 69 58 62 56 57 53 57 58 65 74 74 75 79 76 68 73 86 86 75 78 82 86 87 88 80 65 74 • 70 67 55 60 62 55 56 54 58 60 68 72 76 79 76 76 72 80 89 76 78 81 84 88 90 90 76 66 70 50 58 48 60 66 62 54 64 56 54 52 56 57 62 68 70 76 80 75 75 70 82 90 74 80 82 87 86 86 84 66 69 72 56 62 56 53 54 56 58 65 80 81 89 90 86 79 78 91 94 84 88 90 93 95 92 89 74 70 70 82 55 55 67 66 60 60 55 55 55 58 60 68 71 75 78 77 76 70 80 89 76 78 82 85 87 86 88 72 68 74 AVERAGE 1 962 195 3 1964 1 96 5 j 9g£ 1 96 7 . 1 96 8 1 96 9 1970 I 97 j 1972.,!!. 1973 1974 197 5 1 976 1 977 197 8 1979 1 98O 1 981 1982 1 983 1984 1985 45 56 68 66 54 64 60 56 59 55 59 64 65 62 56 58 54 60 62 69 78 80 82 74 78 80 80 80 80 80 88 92 70 82 86 87 92 87 89 72 68 75 74 84 91 76 84 84 90 90 88 84 68 72 72 76 84 91 82 84 88 90 89 88 75 74 AVERAGE 44 53 66 60 52 62 55 48 48 67 66 55 62 60 55 64 45 52 42 55 66 64 52 66 55 52 54 52 58 58 63 76 81 84 80 80 57 54 60 59 70 76 84 84 80 80 55 54 57 55 57 57 56 54 58 76 72 86 84 81 80 75 78 87 86 80 80 71 76 84 84 74 85 89 75 82 84 88 92 93 90 81 67 74 74 88 92 72 84 89 92 92 84 92 76 70 74 74 63 93 79 86 88 92 90 90 87 72 71 68 72 83 90 78 83 87 90 91 89 90 78 69 72 1 961 1 963 '2 1973 1 974 1V/3 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 73 88 44 90 63 55 50 48 66 69 1 9 49 56 69 70 94 52 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 19 59 196 5 1966 1967 1 968 1 969 1970 1971 82 56 60 50 56 48 64 68 70 59 69 56 56 54 54 58 60 9 7 8 . DIFFUSIO * INDEX 3F SELLING PRICES , RETAIL TRADE-ANTICIPATED <u) (PER :ENT RISING OVER 4-QUART ER SPANS) 58 67 76 87 81 86 90 90 90 90 82 69 70 NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. These are copyrighted series used by permission; they may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. IV Q 1II Q AVERAGE 68 9 7 8 . DIFFUSION INDttX OF SELLING PRICES, RETAIL TRADE-ACTUAL @ (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS) 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1 959 I96 0 1 961 1 962 1963 1 964 1 96 5 1966 1967 196 8 1969 1970 1971 1972 1 973 . . . 1974 1 975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Year AVERAGE 73 52 60 47 64 72 INDEX OF SELLING ?RIC ES, WHOLESALE TRADE— (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS) 94 48 48 46 53 71 74 54 62 57 51 55 52 60 63 78 74 81 85 87 85 80 90 96 80 84 87 89 96 92 90 72 63 73 Annual 976 . DIFFUSION INDEX OF SELLING PRICES, MANUFACTURING— 976 , DIFFUSION INDEX OF SELLING PRIC E S , MANUFACTURING— ACTUAL © (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS) 84 51 46 51 66 65 62 80 (DECEMBER 1985} G. Experimental Data and Analyses (Nov.) P III III Components of BCD series 26 l Year and quarter Implicit price deflator, gross nonfarm business product (Index: 1977=100) Unit labor cost, all persons, nonfarm business sector mm (Jan.) (July) (July) P T P in MM m IB; (Nov.) T Ratio scale wt 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 Components of BCD series 26— ;• (Index: 1977=100) 1983 I Q.... II Q... Ill Q.. IV Q... (Mar.) T 151.9 152.7 153.8 155.2 157.6 155,9 155.9 157.1 156.3 157.3 159.0 160.1 158.3 157.6 159.5 160,0 162.3 163.4 rl64.2 163.3 164,1 rl64,8 Implicit price deflator, gross nonfarm business product, Q (index: 1977 = 100) 1984 I Q.... II Q... Ill Q.. IV Q... E33 Unit labor cost, all persons, nonfarm^, business sector, Q i \f\ (index: 1977 = 100) ! * ' 1985 I Q.... II Q... Ill Q.. IV Q... Inventory-sales ratios in 1972 dollars (ratio)— Inventory-sales ratios in 1972 dollars 2 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 -* 80 Arithmetic scale Year and Manufacturing month (Ratio) Merchant wholesalers (Ratio) -I Retail trade 2.2 (Ratio) 2.1 1984 Jan.... Feb.... Mar Apr.... May.... June... 1.71 1.72 1.72 1.74 1.74 1.75 1.30 1.34 1.33 1.34 1.30 1.29 1.29 1.33 1.36 1.34 1.32 . 1.30 July... Aug Sept,,. Oct.... 1.77 1.76 1.80 1.80 1.78 1.74 1.32 1.34 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.36 1.33 1.34 1.33 1.36 1.35 1.34 Nov.... Dec... 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 Merchant wholesalers 1.4 1985 Jan.. Feb.. Mar.. Apr.. May.. June. 1.78 1,78 1.77 1.78 1.76 1.78 1.36 1.38 1.38 1.35 1.34 1.43 1.37 1.37 •1.38 1.36 1.35 1.36 July. Aug.. Sept. Oct.. Nov.. Dec.. 1.78 1.75 pi.77 1.40 1.38 pi.39 (NA) 1.36 1.32 pi.29 (NA) 1.3 1.2 Retail trade 1.5 D 1.4 (NA) 1.3 11111111 i i * 1311111111 ii 11111111 \\\ \ I \ 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 NOTE: The "r" indicates revised; "p'\ preliminary; and "NA11, not available. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 105 G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes Net contribution to index Basic data Series title (and unit of measure) LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours). . 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs1 (thous.). . . 8. Mfrs.1 new orders in 1972 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (bil. dol.). . 32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (percent) . . . . 12. Net business formation (index: 1967=100) 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.) 29. New private housing units authorized by local building permits (index: 1967=100). . . 36. Change in inventories on hand and on order in 1972 dol., smoothed2 (ann. rate, bil. dol.) . 99. Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed2 (percent) 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10) 106. Money supply M2 in 197? dollars (bil. dol.) 111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding (ann. rate, percent) 910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators3 (index: 1967-100) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (thous.) 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars (ann. rate, bil. dol.) 47. Industrial production (index: 1977-100) 57. Manufacturing and trade uales in 1972 dollars (mil. dol.) 920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident indicators3 (index: 1967=100) LAGGING INDICATORS 91. Average duration of unemployment1 (weeks) 77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1972 dollars (ratio) 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing-actual data as a percent of trend (percent) . 109. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent) 101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1972 dollars ( m i l . dol.) 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income (percent). . . 930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators 3 (index: 1967-100) . . . . 1 Aug. 1985 Sept. 1985 Oct. 1985 Aug. to Sept. 1985 Nov. 1985 Sept. to Oct. 1985 40 .6 40.7 40.7 p40 .7 0 .08 0 .00 375 381 367 371 -0.04 0.10 38.14 38.50 r38.94 p39.16 0.05 0.06 42 42 46 42 0.00 0.16 117.6 r l l 7 .4 rll5.3 -0.02 -0.25 15.65 16 .40 rl5.72 pl5.O5 0 .10 -0.09 142 .3 rl44.2 134.6 132.5 0.04 - 0 .21 r - 2 .03 r-2.15 p-1 .08 NA -0.01 0 .06 - 0 .52 r - 0 .47 r-0.22 -0 .08 0.02 0 .10 188.31 184.06 186 . 1 8 197.45 -0.14 0 .07 975.3 r979.2 977 .9 P977.9 0.13 -0.04 r8 .4 r9.0 rl5.6 p l l .1 0.03 0.34 170 .0 170 .6 r l 7 1 .3 p l 7 1 .5 0.35 0.41 97 ,977 r98,217 r98,571 p98,753 0 .20 0.30 r2,513.0 r2,516 .9 r 2 , 5 2 1 .6 p 2 , 5 2 7 .7 0 .08 0 .09 r l 2 5 .2 r l 2 5 .0 rl24.6 p l 2 5 .1 -0 .04 -0.09 rl84,052 rl83,793 pl82,136 NA -0.03 - 0 .20 rl60.8 r l 6 0 .8 rl60.7 p l 6 1 .2 0.00 -0.06 15.6 15.5 15.3 16 .0 0.05 0 .09 1 .54 r l .54 pi.56 NA 0 .00 0.26 r83 .4 r83.4 r 8 3 .5 .0 0.00 0.04 9.50 9 .50 9.50 9 .50 0.00 0 .00 rl28,236 rl28,389 rl29,884 pl31,46 0 0 .03 0.31 rl5.52 r l 5 .80 pl5.92 NA 1 .07 0 .46 rl27 .7 rl.2 9 . 2 . rl30.7 pl30 .4 1 .17 1 .16 P83 NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. I t is computed by dividing the standardized and weighted change for the component by the sum of the weights for the available components and dividing that result by the index standardization f a c t o r . See the February 1983 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 108-109) or the 1984 HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (pp. 67-68) for the weights and standardization factors. NA, not available, p, p r e l i m nary, r, revised, e, estimated. 1 This series is inverted in computing the composite index; i . e . , a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement. This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment f a c t o r . The trend adjustment factor for the leading index is 0.139; for the coincident index, -0.175; for the lagging index, 0.018. 2 3 106 G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns II I I I II I I I M M H 11 I 11 111 (I M M I 11 11 11 I 11 M 111 11 (DeviActual ations data from for reference current 47. Industrial production index cycle peaks MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH REF. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH 7/81 DATA YEAR SERIES Deviations from specific troughs 47. Industrial production index 47 Actual data for current cycle J 977=100 Percent +20 • 135 + 15 +10 4130 • 125 25 26 27 28 8.7 9.0 9.1 9.3 123.3 123 .6 123.7 124.0 12/84 1/85 2/85 3/85 29 30 31 32 9.4 9.4 9.6 9.4 124.1 124.1 124.3 124.1 4/85 5/85 6/85 7/85 33 34 35 36 10.4 10.2 9.9 10.3 125.2 125.0 124.6 125.1 8/85 9/85 10/85 11/85 30 25 MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH SPEC. FROM AND ACTUAL TROUGH 12/82 YEAR DATA 20 +5 24 22 . 7 123 . 3 12/84 • 115 25 26 27 28 23.0 23.1 23 .4 23.5 123.6 123.7 124.0 124.1 1/85 2/85 3/85 4/85 M10 29 30 31 32 23.5 23.7 23.5 24.6 124.1 124.3 124.1 125.2 5/85 6/85 7/85 8/85 24.4 24.0 24.5 125.0 124.6 125.1 9/85 10/85 11/85 -5 33 • 105 -10 • 100 34 35 MONTHS FROM REF. TROUGH 90 85 3/75 15 10 75 - I 70 -12 -6 0 + 6 • 115 • 110 • 105 CURRENT MONTH ACTUAL AND YEAR DATA 25 26 27 28 80.9 80 .7 80.4 80.5 12/84 1/85 2/85 3/85 29 30 31 32 80.5 80.3 80 .1 80.1 4/85 5/85 6/85 7/85 33 34 35 36 80 .7 80.3 79.8 80 .0 8/85 9/85 10/85 11/85 82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing DEVIMONTHS FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH SPEC. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH 12/82 YEAR DATA • 80 - SERIES 82 PERCENT 80 • 120 SERIES 82 PERCENT -> - 1 5 82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing • 125 12/82 SERIES 47 1977=100 >120 • 130 24 12.9 80.9 25 26 27 28 12.7 12.4 12.5 12.5 80.7 80.4 80.5 80.5 1/85 2/85 3/85 4/85 29 30 31 32 12.3 12.1 12.1 12.7 80.3 80.1 80.1 80.7 5/85 6/85 7/85 8/85 33 34 35 12.3 11 . 8 12.0 80.3 79.8 80 . 0 9/85 10/85 11/85 10 • 75 12/84 +12 +18 + 2 4 +30 +36 Months from reference troughs - 5 >70 —• 0 0 + 6 +12 111 II I 1 II II I I I Ii M l II +18 +24 +30 +36 Months from specific troughs NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 106 of the July 1985 issue. 107 G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns—Continued M 1 I 1 1 1 11 I 1 1 U 11 I M I 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 TFITIITIIiIIIiflfF MONTHS FROM REF. TROUGH 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate (inverted) CURRENT MONTH AND ACTUAL DATA YEAR 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate (inverted) 45 SERIES PERCENT 3.0 3.5 4.0 2 .0 2.9 3.0 2.9 12/ 84 1/85 2/85 3/85 29 30 31 32 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 4/85 5/85 6/85 33 34 35 36 2.7 2.7 2/7 2.7 8/85 9/85 10/85 11/85 5.0 6.0 6.5 48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments Actual L 5/75 \ / 7/85 / Actual data for current cycle 25 26 27 28 -2.3 -2.2 -2.1 -2.2 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 12/84 29 30 31 32 -2 .3 -2.3 -2.3 -2 .3 2.8 2.8 2,8 2 .8 4/85 5/85 6/85 33 34 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 ' 35 36 1 Median 1i \ y^s*^^m\ jr*A ft \tl J?l SJ 1/85 2/85 m*l • 180 • 178 • 176 • 174 • 172 • 170 • 166 • 166 • 164 -12 -6 I I I I I I M i I 1 I 1 M l I I II I 1 I I I I I I I I I i I I 0 + 6 +12 +18 + 2 4 +30 +36 29 30 31 32 6.1 6.5 6.7 6.6 181 . 7 0 182.43 182.67 182.63 33 34 35 36 7.0 7.6 8.3 8.3 183 . 3 0 184.32 185.41 185.40 * A A f\ -O.f ) • 5.0 T 7/85 48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments 8/85 9/85 10/85 11/85 | ux,c [ m If 1 V Ij1 11 If v rN 8/85 9/85 10/85 11/85 / /a f DEVIMONTHS FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH SPEC. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH DATA YEAR 11/82 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 10.8 11.2 11 , 4 11.4 181 . 7 0 182.43 182.67 182.63 33 34 35 36 11 . 8 12.4 13.0 13.0 183.30 184.32 185.41 9/85 10/85 185.40 11/85 f - 10 —i 9 — 8 _ 7 fU* IN KJFT Zm*J{ 2/85 4 • 180 Median ISM AM • 162 • 178 / Jr ' • 184 It • 176 g • 174 - 5 • 172 —- 4 f] I1 Ji / • 186 13 12 Jr fV 6/85 7/85 SERIES 48 ANN. RATI B I L . HOURS 10 . 0 180.38 12/84 10.2 180.7 7 1/85 10 . 1 180.65 10,9 181 . 9 4 Percent EU 4/85 5/85 "^6/75 • 170 \V*\E 3/85 UT* T 4/85 I \ U */ %/ 5/85 I \ » ii,£/ 3 • 168 2 7/85 1 6/85 \\iljBf 1 Mil 8/85 f \ V M / NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 106 of the July 1985 issue. _ i 3/85 Months from reference troughs 108 • 3.5 -I.f -t.C 11/70 • 2.5 -2.C jri 48 ^NN. RAT! BIL. HOURS 180.3 8 12/84 180.7 7 1/85 180.65 2/85 181 . 9 4 3/85 5.3 5.6 5.5 6.2 1.5 , #2.0 -2.J> SERIES 25 26 27 28 -3.C / DEVIMONTHS FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH REF. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH 7/81 DATA YEAR • 182 • -3.S y-^ \ • 186 • 184 -4.C) / SERIE 3 45 "ERCENT 5.5 reference peaks EB DEVIMONTHS FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH' AND ACTUAL FROM SPEC. DATA YEAR 11/82 TROUGH 4.5 Devi-. ations from Ug,U 25 26 27 28 2.5 Devi- Actual data ations for from specific current cycle troughs 1 t mjiiin -6 i i M t l t l l U l l l i i t 1 J ( 111 1I I I I I I 1I t 1 I 0 4-6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 Months from specific troughs 1 • 166 o • 164 u G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns-Continued 11II III III11 11111I11IIIII III1111 111 I I I I I M 11II 111 IT MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH REF. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH 7/81 DATA YEAR 910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators n1111111IIn n111111jII11111M111M111n11 ITTTTITT 910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators SERIES 9 1 0 1967=100 • 170 • 160 25 26 27 28 14.8 16 . 4 17.3 17.4 164.1 166.3 167.6 167.8 12/84 1/85 2/85 3/85 29 30 31 32 16 . 8 17.1 17.3 17.9 166.9 167.4 167.6 168.5 4/85 5/85 6/85 7/85 33 34 35 36 19.0 19.4 19.9 20.0 170.0 170.6 171 , 3 171 . 5 9/85 10/85 11/85 35 MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH SPEC. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH 3/82 YEAR DATA 30 0 • 140 - -5 - -10 - -15 • 130 40 8/85 • 165 • 180 • 170 33 34 35 36 21 . 8 23.5 24.4 24.6 164.1 166 .3 167.6 167.8 12/84 1/85 2/85 3/85 37 38 39 40 23.9 24.3 24.4 25.1 166.9 4/85 167.4 5/85 167 .6 6/85 168.5 7/85 41 42 43 44 26.2 26.7 27.2 27.3 170.0 8/85 170.6 9/85 171 . 3 1 0 / 8 5 171.5 11/85 • 165 20 • 160 15 • 150 10 • 145 • 140 MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH ACTUAL REF. AND FROM TROUGH 7/81 YEAR DATA SERIES 9 2 0 1967=100 920. Composite index of 4 coincident indicators Percent 25 26 27 28 7 .6 7.3 7.7 7 .9 158 8 158 4 159 0 159 3 12/84 1/85 2/85 3/85 29 30 31 32 8.7 8.4 7.9 8.0 160 160 159 159 4 0 3 4 4/85 5/85 6/85 7/85 33 34 35 36 8.9 8.9, 8.9 9.2 160 160 160 161 8 8 7 2 8/85 9/85 10/85 11/85 920. Composite index of 4 coincident indicators 35 +20 • 175 +15 • 165 + 10 • 155 MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT FROM ACTUAL SPEC. TROUGH DATA 12/82 • 145 -5 • 135 -10 #125 -12-6 11I • 180 • 175 30 • 170 2 5 MONTH AND YEAR 20 «165 • 160 • 155 SERIES > 9 2 0 1967=100 It I I I I I I 11 I I I I H t I t I I M 1 I I I I II I 1 1 1 N I It II H i l l *175 25 • 120 - I -20 +5 Actual data for current cycle Percent SERIES 9 1 0 1967=100 • 150 - • Deviations from specific troughs 15 • 150 24 19.8 158 .8 12/84 25 26 27 28 19.5 19.9 20.1 21.0 158 159 159 160 .4 .0 .3 .4 1/85 2/85 3/85 4/85 29 30 31 32 20.7 20.1 20.2 21.3 160.0 5/85 159.3 6/85 159.4 7/85 160.8 8/85 33 34 35 21 . 3 21 .2 21 . 6 160 .8 160 .7 161 .2 9/85 10/85 11/85 0 + 6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 Months from reference troughs 10 • 145 • 140 • 135 11 I 1 I 11 11 1 11 IJ I 11 11 I 1 1 11 U I 11 11 11 111 11 t I I M I I 1 I I I I I It 0 + 6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 Months from specific troughs NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 106 of the July 1985 issue. 109 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE c prifH , tiHp (See complete Sties in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Current issue numbers) Series ^ number Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) Series description C) A Agricultural products, exports Anticipations and intentions Business expenditures, new plant and equ pment 8usiness expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl Consumer sentiment, index Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl New orders, manufacturing, 01 Prices, manufacturing, Dl Prices, retail trade, Dl Prices, wholesale trade, Dl Profits, manufacturing and trade, Dl Sales, manufacturing and trade, Dl Automobiles Imports of automobiles and parts Personal consumption expenditures 604 56 92 12/85 61 970 58 974 975 971 976 978 977 972 973 24 38 22 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 67 76 65 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 11/85 11/85 11/85 12/85 12/85 12/85 12/85 12/85 12/85 12/85 12/85 23 23 20 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 616 55 56 22 92 65 12/85 9/84 56 39 B Balance of payments—See International transactions. Bank loans—See Business Loans. Bank rates—See Interest rates. Bank reserves Free reserves Member bank borrowings from the Federal Jteurve Bonds—See Interest rates. Borrowing—See Credit Budget—See Government. Building-See Construction. Building permits, new private housing Business equipment, industrial production Business expenditures, new plant and equipment Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl Business failures, eurre it liabilities . ... Business formation, index Business incorporations . Business inventories—Soe Inventories Business loans Loans outstanding, constant dollars Loans outstanding, cu-rent dollars Loans outstanding, net change Business saving C Canada—See International comparisons. Capacity utilization Manufacturing Materials Capital appropriations, manufacturing Backlog Newly approved Newly approved, Dl Capital equipment, producer price index Capital investment—See Investment, capital. Capital investment commitments, Cl Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars Cash flow, corporate, current dollars Civilian labor force—See also Employment. Employment Employment as percent of population Labor force Unemployed Coincident indicators, lour Composite index Composite index, rate of change Diffusion index , Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded Commercial and industrial loans Loans outstanding, constant dollars Loans outstanding, current dolCars Loans outstanding, net change Compensation—See also Income. Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm business sector , Compensation of employees Compensation of employees, percent of national" income Compensation, real average hourty, nonfarm business sector Earnings, average hourly, private nontarm economy Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm economy Wage and benefit decisions, first year Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction Composite indexes Coincident indicators Four coinciders, index Four coinciders, rate of change Ratio to lagging indicator index Lagging indicators Six laggers, index Six laggers, rate of change Leading indicators Capital investment commitments Inventory investment and purchasing Money and financial flows Profitability Twelve leaders, index Twelve leaders, rate of change See notes at end of index. 110 93 94 . . , 33 33 72 72 4/85 4/85 35 35 24 12 23 23 34 21 21 65 7/85 8/85 11/85 11/85 12/85 12/85 12/85 101 15,35 72 35 112 32 295 46 73 73 71 82 5/85 5/85 5/85 11/84 32 32 32 26 82 84 64 64 8/85 8/85 14 14 22 22 22 51 29 13,25 76 24 61 24 970 38 14 33 12 12,23 13 23 20 20 67 67 67 76 72 65 97 11 965 333 24 24 37 48 66 66 75 86 2/85 2/85 2/85 5/85 914 35 34 11 29 29 60 70 70 7/84 9/84 9/84 5 26 26 89 62 89 62,89 3/85 2/85 3/85 2/85 9 9 9 9 60 5 66 9/85 9/85 12/84 7/84 10/85 "5 5 21 101 15,35 72 35 112 32 73 73 71 5/85 5/85 5/85 32 32 32 345 280 49 45 87 82 12/84 10/84 46 46 64 30,47 70,83 9/84 46 442 51 90 17 441 51 37 18,51 920 920c 951 940 9 10 39 36 11 23 'n 60 346 49 88 12/84 46 340 49 87 10/85 5 ;|41 :48 349 49 50 50 87 88 88 10/85 9/85 9/85 5 53 53 53 19 63 3/85 11 920 92t'c 940 10 39 11 60 9/85 9/85 7/84 5 93C 930c 10 39 60 9/85 9/85 5 914 915 917 916 910 910c 11 11 11 11 10 39 60 60 60 60 60 7/84 7/84 7/84 7/84 9/85 9/85 5 5 5 5 5 60' "5 Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Construction Building permits, new private housing Contracts awarded, commercial and industrial buildings Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales Gross private fixed investment Nonresidential, constant dollars Nonresidential, percent of GNP Nonresidential structures, constant dollars Residential, constant dollars Residential, percent of GNP Housing starts Consumer finished goods, producer price index Consumer goods and materials, new orders Consumer goods, industrial production Consumer installment credit Credit outstanding Net change Ratio to personal income Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate Consumer prices—See also International comparisons. All items Food Consumer sentiment, index Consumption expenditures—See Personal consumption expenditures. Contract awards, Defense Department Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, constant dollars Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dollars Corporate bond yields Corporate profits—See Profits. Costs—See Labor costs and Price indexes. Credit Borrowing, total private Business loans Loans outstanding, constant dollars Loans outstanding, current dollars Loans outstanding, net change Consumer installment credit Credit outstanding Net change Ratio to personal income Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate Credit outstanding, percent change Mortgage debt, net change Crude and intermediate materials, change in producer prices Crude materials, producer price index Curnmt SSUe ' Series < ^ e n u m b e r s > number Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) Series description 29 13,25 67 7/85 9 69 23 24 66 67 10/85 8/85 21 17 86 248 87 89 249 28 334 8 75 25 47 25 25 47 25 48 12,21 22 67 83 67 67 83 67 86 64 65 9/84 10/84 9/84 9/84 10/84 3/85 5/85 7/85 8/85 40 40 40 40 40 24 51 15 12 66 113 95 39 35 32 15,35 33 73 72 73 72 6/85 6/85 6/85 7/85 33 33 33 34 320 322 58 49 49 22 84,95 84 65 4/85 4/85 11/85 49 49 20 525 53 90 12/85 55 20 12,23 66 8/85 21 10 116 23 34 66 73 8/85 9/85 21 35 110 32 72 11/85 101 72 112 15,35 35 32 73 73 71 5/85 5/85 5/85 32 32 32 66 113 95 39 Ill 33 35 32 15,35 33 13,32 32 73 72 73 72 72 71 6/85 6/85 6/85 7/85 6/85 11/85 33 33 33 34 31 31 98 331 28 48 69 85 3/85 4/85 51 50 557 54 91 8/85 517 543 580 578 577 525 53 53 54 55 55 53 90 90 91 91 91 90 11/85 12/85 12/85 10/85 10/85 12/85 55 55 56 56 56 55 559 548 588 561 570 564 , 565 54 53 54 54 55 55 55 91 90 91 91 91 91 91 7/85 7/85 7/85 7/85 7/85 9/84 9/84 17 15 17 15 5 43 43 39 32 33 12,21 72 64 7/85 2/85 34 17 970 965 951 974 963 966 38 37 36 38 36 37 11/85 2/85 12/84 12/85 8/85 8/85 23 22 5 37 5 12 962 975 952 950 964 36 38 36 36 37 i/85 12/85 12/84 12/84 7/85 "8 37 5 5 15 971 960 972 967 38 37 38 37 12/85 12/85 12/85 1/85 37 37 37 25 973 976 978 977 968 961 38 38 38 38 37 36 76 75 74 76 74 75 78 74 76 74 74 75 77 76 75 76 75 79 76 76 76 76 75 74 77 12/85 12/85 12/85 12/85 7/85 8/85 37 37 37 37 25 5 D Debt-See Credit. Defense and space equipment, industrial production Defense Department Gross obligations incurred Gross unpaid obligations Net outlays Personnel, civilian Personnel, military Prime contract awards Defense products Inventories, manufacturers' New orders, manufacturers' Shipments, manufacturers' Unfilled orders, manufacturers' Defense products industries, employment Defense purchases, goods and services Defense purchases, percent of GNP Deficit—See Government. Deflators—See Price indexes. Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans Deliveries, vendor performance Diffusion indexes Business expenditures, new plant and equipment Capital appropriations, manufacturing Coincident indicators Employees, manufacturing and trade Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls Industrial production Industrial production, components Initial claims, State unemployment insurance Inventories, manufacturing and trade Lagging indicators Leading indicators New orders, durable goods industries New orders, durable goods industries, components New orders, manufacturing Profits, manufacturing Profits, manufacturing and trade Raw industrials, spot market prices Raw industrials, spot market prices, components Sales, manufacturing and trade Selling prices, manufacturing Selling prices, retail trade Selling prices, wholesale trade Stock prices, 500 common stocks Workweek, manufacturing Workweek, manufacturing, components Disposable personal income—See income. ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued s . m ' oerieS lllie (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Current issue /naoo number^ Series vpaee n u m D e r s J number Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) Senes description (*) E Earnings—See Compensation. Employment and unemployment Civilian labor force Defense Department personnel, civilian Defense Department personnel, military Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments Rate of change Total Employees in goods-producing industries Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl Employees on nonagricultural payrolls Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, Dl Employment, civilian Employment, defense products industries Employment, ratio to population Help-wanted advertising in newspapers Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment Initial claims, State unemployment insurance Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Dl Overtime hours, manufacturing Participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age Participation rate, females 20 years and over Participation rate, males 20 years and over Part-time workers for economic reasons Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities Unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age Unemployed, females 20 years and over Unemployed, full-time workers Unemployed, males 20 years and over Unemployment, average duration Unemployment, civilian Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over Unemployment rate, insured Unemployment rate, total Workweek, manufacturing Workweek, manufacturing, components Workweek, manufacturing, Dl Equipment—See Investment, capital. Exports—See International transactions. F Federal funds rate Federal Government—See Government. Federal Reserve, member bank borrowings from Final sales in constant dollars Financial flows, Cl Fixed investment—See Investment, capital. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product Food—See Consumer prices. Foreign trade—See International transactions. France—See International comparisons. Free reserves 441 578 577 51 55 55 48c 48 40 974 41 963 442 570 90 46 60 5 962 21 453 452 451 448 42 446 445 447 444 91 37 44 45 43 1 39 17 17 38 14,17 36 51 55 17 16 16 12,16 36 16 51 51 51 51 17 51 51 51 51 15,18 18,51 18 18 18 12,16 961 36 89 91 91 61 62 76 62 74 89 91 62 61 61 61 74 61 89 89 89 89 62 89 89 89 89 62 62,89 62 62 62 61 77 74 3/85 10/85 10/85 9 56 56 11/85 12/84 7/85 12/85 7/85 8/85 3/85 7/85 2/85 2/85 2/85 1/85 1/85 7/85 3/85 3/85 3/85 3/85 2/85 3/85 3/85 3/85 3/85 2/85 2/85 2/85 3/85 2/85 7/85 "5 5 37 5 5 9 5 9 9 9 8 8 5 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 5 8/85 119 34 72 9/85 94 213 917 33 40 11 72 80 60 4/85 10/84 7/84 311 48 84 9/84 93 33 72 4/85 35 38 5 G Goods output in constant dollars Government budget Federal expenditures Federal receipts . Federal surplus or deficit State and local expenditures ... . State and local receipts . . State and local surplus or deficit . Surplus or deficit, total . . Government purchases of goods and services Federal, constant dollars . . Federal, current dollars . Federal, percent ot GNP . . National defense . National defense, percent of GNP State and local, constant dollars . State and local, current dollars State and local, percent of GNP Total, constant dollars. Total, current dollars... . Gross domestic business product, fixed-weighted priceindex Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit . Gross national product GNP, constant dollars.. . GNP, constant dollars, differences GNP, constant dollars, percent changes .. GNP, current dollars.... .. . GNP, current dollars, differences , GNP, current dollars, percent changes GNP, ratio to money supply Ml . . Goods output in constant dollars Implicit price deflator ., .. Per capita GNP, constant dollars . ... Gross private domestic investment—See Investment, capital. H Help-wanted advertising in newspapers Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment Hours, manufacturing Average weekly hours Average weekly hours, components Average weekly hours, Dl Average weekly overtime 49 20 63 9/84 502 501 500 512 511 510 298 52 52 52 52 52 52 46 90 90 90 90 90 90 83 9/84 9/84 9/84 9/84 9/84 9/84 11/84 53 53 53 53 53 53 48 263 262 265 564 565 267 266 268 261 260 43 43 47 55 55 43 43 47 43 43 81 81 83 91 91 81 81 83 81 81 10/84 10/84 10/84 9/84 9/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 311 68 48 30 84 70 9/84 9/85 49 28 19,40 .... 39 40 .... .... 31 20 48 40 63,80 80 80 80 80 80 71 63 84 80 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 5/85 9/84 9/84 10/84 38 38 38 38 38 38 30 14 38 38 16 16 61 61 2/85 2/85 9 9 12,16 61 77 36 74 16 61 7/85 5 8/85 7/85 "5 5 50 50b 50c 200 200b 200c 107 49 310 217 46 60 . 1 961 21 Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Current issue . Housing Housing starts Housing units authorized by local building permits Residential GPDI, constant dollars Residential GPDI, percent of GNP Implicit price deflator, GNP Imports—See International transactions. Income Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm business sector '. Compensation of employees Compensation of employees, percent of national income Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm business sector Consumer installment credit, ratio to personal income Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income Disposable personal income, constant dollars Disposable personal income, current dollars Disposable personal income, per capita, constant dollars Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm economy Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm economy Income on foreign investment in the United States Income on U.S. investment abroad Interest, net Interest, net, percent of national income National income Personal income, constant dollars Personal income, current dollars Personal income less transfer payments, constant dollars Rate of change Total Personal income, ratio to money supply M2 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income Rental income of persons with CCAdj Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent of national income ... Wage and benefit decisions, first year . Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction Incorporations, new b u s i n e s s e s . . . . . Industrial commodities, producer price index Industrial production--See also International comparisons. Business equipment Consumer goods .... Defense and space equipment . Durable manufactures ... Nondurable m a n u f a c t u r e s . . . . Total Total, components .... Total, Dl Total, rate of change. . . . . 4 Industrials, raw, spot market prices Components Diffusion index Spot market index . . . .. Installment credit—See Credit. Insured unemployment Average weekly initial claims Average weekly initial claims, Dl Average weekly insured unemployment rate Interest, net . .... Interest, net, percent of national income Interest rates Bank rates on short-term business loans Corporate bond yields Federal funds rate Mortgage yields, secondary market Municipal bond yields. .. Prime rate charged by banks . Treasury bill rate Treasury bond yields . Intermediate materials, producer price index International comparisons Consumer prices Canada . France . .. .. ... Italy . 7 Japan United Kingdom ... United States .. West Germany . . . .... Industrial production Canada France . . . . . . Italy . . . Japan ... . . . . OECD, European countries . . . . United Kingdom ... United States . . . . .. West Germany Series (page numbers) number Charts Tables 28 29 89 249 25 13,25 25 47 67 67 67 83 310 Historical data (issue date) 3/85 7/85 9/84 10/84 Series description (*) 24 24 40 40 9/84 345 280 49 45 87 82 64 30,47 346 95 286 49 15,35 45 287 225 224 47 40 40 12/84 10/84 46 46 70,83 9/84 46 88 73 82 12/84 6/85 11/84 46 33 26 83 80 80 11/84 10/84 10/84 26 11 11 227 40 340 49 87 10/85 341 652 651 288 289 220 52 223 49 57 57 45 47 45 19 40 87 93 93 82 83 82 63 63 10/85 9/85 9/85 11/84 11/84 10/84 9/84 9/84 5 57 57 47 47 46 11 11 51c 51 108 282 39 14,19 31 45 *63" 71 82 11/85 9/84 4/85 10/84 ii 30 47 47 45 83 82 10/84 10/84 47 47 47 50 50 83 88 88 11/84 9/85 9/85 47 53 53 19 23 48 63 65 85 3/85 12/85 5/85 11 21 51 24 67 22 65 54 91 20 63 20 63 1,20,58 63,94 8/85 8/85 8/85 8/85 8/85 8/85 12 12 13 12 12 12 283 284 285 348 349 53 13 335 76 75 557 73 74 47 966 7 c 967 23 10/84 78 to 37' 39 75 8/85 11/85 'l2 37' 28 79 75 69 1/85 1/85 25 25 12,16 36 18 45 1/85 1/85 3/85 11/84 U/84 8 8 8 47 47 47 61 74 62 82 83 67 116 119 118 117 109 114 115 332 35 34 34 34 34 35 34 34 48 73 73 72 73 73 73 72 73 86 12/85 9/85 9/85 9/85 9/85 6/85 9/85 9/85 5/85 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 50 733 736 3 7 738 732 320 735 59 59 59 59 59 49 59 96 95 96 95 95 84,95 95 6/85 6/85 6/85 6/85 6/85 4/85 6/85 60 61 61 61 60 49 61 94 58 58 94 58 94 94 58 58 94 58 94 4,20,58 63,94 58 94 10/85 10/85 10/85 10/85 10/85 10/85 8/85 10/85 59 59 59 59 58 58 12 59 5 962 45 288 289 723 726 727 728 721 722 47 725 See notes at end of index. 111 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued Series title (See complete titles in "Titles ,ind Sources of Series," following this index) Stock prices Canada France Italy Japan United Kingdom United States West Germany International transactions Balance on goads and services Balance on merchandise trade Exports, excluding military aid Exports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military Exports of domestic agricultural products Exports of goods and services, constant dollars Exports ol goods and services, current dollar!. Exports oi goods and services, excluding military Exports ol nonelectrical machinery Imports, general Imports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military Imports of automobiles and parts Imports of goods and services Imports of goods and services, constant dollars Imports of goods and services, current dollars Imports of petroleum and petroleum products ., Income on foreign investment in the United States Income on U.S. investment abroad Net exports of goods and services, constant dollars Net exports of goods and services, eurrent dollars Net exports ol goods and services, percent ol GNP Inventories Business inventories, change, constant dollars Business inventories, change, current dollars Business inventories, change, percent ol GNP Defense products, manufacturers' Finished goods, manufacturers' Inventories to sales nilio, manufacturing and trade Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl Manufacturing and trade, book value Manufacturing and trade, change in book value Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars Manufacturing and trade, Dl Manufacturing and trade, on hand and on order, change Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers' Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers', change? Investment, capital Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, Ol Capital investment commitments, Cl Construction contracts, commercial and industrial Construction expenditures, business, plus machinery and equipment sales Gross private domestic investment Business inventories, change—See Inventories. fixed investment, constant dollars Fixed investment, current dollars Nonresidential, constant dollars Nonresidential. percent of GNP Nonresidential producers' durable equipment, constant dollars Nonresidential structures, constant dollars Residential, constant dollars Residential, percent ol GNP Total, constant dollars Total, current dollars New orders, nondefense capital goods, constant dollars New orders, nondetense capital goods, current dollars Plant and equipment Business expenditures, new Business expenditures, new, Ol Contracts and orders, constant dollars Contracts and orders, current dollars Investment, foreign Income on foreign investment in the United States Income on U.S. investment abroad Italy—See International comparisons. Series (page m jmuers^ number Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) Series description 743 746 747 748 742 19 745 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 11/85 11/85 11/85 11/85 11/85 11/85 11/85 63 63 63 63 63 25 63 667 622 602 618 604 256 252 668 606 612 620 616 669 257 253 614 652 651 57 57 56 57 56 44 44 57 56 56 56 57 44 44 56 57 57 93 93 92 93 92 82 82 93 92 92 93 92 93 82 82 92 93 93 9/85 9/85 12/85 9/85 12/85 10/84 10/84 9/85 12/85 12/85 9/85 12/85 9/85 10/84 10/84 12/85 9/85 9/85 57 57 56 57 56 44 44 57 56 56 57 56 57 44 44 56 57 57 255 44 82 10/84 44 250 251 44 47 82 83 10/84 10/84 44 44 30 245 247 559 65 77 915 71 31 70 975 26,42 68,81 42 47 54 27 81 83 91 68 68 60 68 68 68 76 9/84 10/84 10/84 7/85 6/85 10/85 7/84 10/85 6/85 10/85 12/85 40 40 40 17 17 17 5 17 17 17 37 36 13,26 68 10/85 17 78 27 68 6/85 17 38 26 68 6/85 17 97 11 965 914 9 24 24 37 11 23 66 66 75 60 66 2/85 2/85 2/85 7/84 10/85 22 22 22 5 21 69 24 67 8/85 17 243 242 86 248 42 42 25 47 81 81 67 83 10/84 10/84 9/84 10/84 40 40 40 40 88 87 89 249 241 240 25 25 25 47 42 42 67 67 67 83 81 81 9/84 9/84 9/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 40 40 40 40 40 40 imhprc'l 57 15,27 11 27 26 27 38 27 23 8/85 24 23 8/85 (*) 61 24 970 38 20 12,23 10 23 67 76 66 66 11/85 11/85 8/85 8/85 21 21 652 651 93 93 9/85 9/85 57 57 57 57 23 23 J Japan—See International comparisons. L Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product Labor cost per unit of output, business sector Labor cost per unit ol output, manufacturing Actual data Actual data as percent of trend Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business Labor force—See Employment. Lagging indicators, six Composite index Composite index, rate of change Diffusion index Leading indicators, twelve Composite index Composite index, rate of change See notes at end of index. 112 68 63 30 30 70 70 9/85 9/85 28 28 S2 02 J!6 30 15 29 70 70 70 8/85 8/85 1/85 28 28 28 9:0 93i)c 95? 10 39 36 9/85 12/84 910 910; 10 39 9/85 Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Diffusion index Liabilities of business failures Liquid assets, change in total Loans-See Credit. £ £ 1 0 Series tpage n m ™ % } number Charts Tables 950 14 104 M Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers'inventories Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers' inventories, change Materials, capacity utilization rate Materials, new orders for consumer goods and Materials prices—See Price indexes. Merchandise trade—See International transactions. Military-See Defense. Money and financial flows, Cl Money supply Liquid assets, change in total Money supply Ml, constant dollars Money supply M l , percent changes Money supply M2, constant dollars Money supply M2, percent changes Ratio, GNP to money supply M l Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 Mortgage debt, net change '. Mortgage yields, secondary market Municipal bond yields Historical data (issue date) Series description {*) 36 33 31 74 72 71 12/84 12/85 11/85 5 34 29 78 27 68 6/85 17 38 84 8 26 20 12,21 68 64 64 6/85 8/85 7/85 17 14 15 917 11 60 7/84 104 105 85 106 102 107 108 33 118 117 31 31 31 13,31 31 31 31 32 34 34 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 73 73 11/85 4/85 4/85 4/85 4/85 5/85 4/85 11/85 9/85 9/85 29 29 29 30 29 30 30 31 35 35 27 24 8 23 23 12,21 66 66 64 8/85 8/85 7/85 15 15 15 20 12,23 66 8/85 21 10 548 7 6 23 53 21 21 8/85 7/85 7/85 7/85 21 15 15 15 964 971 37 38 66 90 64 64 77 75 76 7/85 12/85 15 37 88 87 86 248 25 25 25 47 67 67 67 83 9/84 9/84 9/84 10/84 40 40 40 40 517 543 721 53 53 58 90 90 94 11/85 12/85 10/85 55 55 58 580 54 91 12/85 56 N National defense—See Defense. National Government—See Government, National income—See Income. New orders, manufacturers' Capital goods industries, nondefense, constant dollars Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dollars Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, constant dollars Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dollars Defense products Durable goods industries, constant dollars Durable goods industries, current dollars Components Diffusion index New orders, manufacturing, Dl Nonresidential fixed investment Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars Structures, constant dollars Total, constant dollars Total, percent of GNP 0 Obligations incurred, Defense Department Obligations unpaid, Defense Department OECD, European countries, industrial production Orders-See New orders and Unfilled orders. Outlays, Defense Department Output-See also Gross national product and Industrial production. Goods output, constant dollars Labor cost per unit of Actual data Actual data as percent of trend Per hour, business sector Per hour, nonfarm business sector Ratio to capacity, manufacturing Ratio to capacity, materials Overtime hours, manufacturing P Participation rates, civilian labor force Both sexes 16-19 years of age Females 20 years and over Males 20 years and over Personal consumption expenditures Automobiles Durable goods, constant dollars Durable goods, current dollars Nondurable goods, constant dollars Nondurable goods, current dollars Services, constant dollars Services, current dollars Total, constant dollars Total, current dollars Total, percent of GNP Personal income—See Income. Personal saving Personal saving rate Petroleum and petroleum products, imports Plant and equipment—See also Investment, capital. Business expenditures, new Business expenditures, new, Dl Contracts and orders, constant dollars Contracts and orders, current dollars Population, civilian employment as percent of 49 20 63 9/84 14 62 62 370 358 82 84 21 30 15 50 50 20 20 16 70 70 88 88 64 64 61 8/85 8/85 1/85 1/85 8/85 8/85 7/85 52 52 453 452 451 51 51 51 89 89 89 3/85 3/85 3/85 9 9 9 55 233 232 238 236 239 237 231 230 235 22 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 47 65 80 80 81 81 81 81 80 80 83 9/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 292 293 614 46 46 56 82 83 92 11/84 11/84 12/85 48 48 56 61 970 20 10 90 24 38 12,23 23 17 67 76 66 66 62 11/85 11/85 8/85 8/85 2/85 23 23 21 21 9 28 28 14 14 5 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and • Sources of Series," following this index) Current issue Series tpage n u m b e f S ) number Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) Series description 4/85 4/85 49 49 C) Price indexes Consumer prices—See also International comparisons. All items Food Deflators Fixed-weighted, gross domestic business product Implicit price deflator, GNP Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business Producer prices All commodities . . Capital equipment. Crude materials . Finished consumer goods Industrial commodities .... Intermediate matenals Sensitive crude and intermediate materials -. Raw industrials, spot market prices Components Diffusion index .. ...... Spot market index Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change in producer prices Sensitive materials prices, percent change Stock prices—See also International comparisons. 500 common stocks 500 common stocks, Dl .. . . ... Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business Prices, selling Manufacturing, Dl . . . .... Retail trade, Dl . . Wholesale trade, Dl . . Prime contract awards, Defense Department Prime rate charged by banks Producer prices—See Price indexes. Producers' durable equipment, nonresidential, GPDI Production—See Gross national product and Industrial production. Productivity Output per hour, business sector . ... Output per hour, nonlarm business sector Profitability, Cl Profits Corporate profits after tax Constant d o l l a r s . . . . . . Current dollars . . , With IVA and CCAdj, constant dollars With IVA and CCAdj, current dollars Corporate profits before tax With IVA and CCAdj With IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income.. Manufacturing and trade, Dl Manufacturing, Dl Per dollar of sales, manufacturing Profitability, Cf Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income Ratio, profits with IVA and CCAdj to corporate domestic income,. . Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income... Raw industrials, spot market prices Components Diffusion index Spot market index Rental income of persons with CCAdj Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent of national income Reserves, free : Residential fixed investment, constant dollars... Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP .... Residential structures—See Housing. Retail sates, constant dollars Retail sales, current dollars 322 49 84,95 84 311 310 26 48 48 29 84 84 70 9/84 9/84 1/85 49 38 28 330 333 331 334 335 332 98 48 48 48 48 48 48 28 85 86 85 4/85 5/85 4/85 5/85 5/85 5/85 3/85 50 51 50 51 51 50 51 967 23 37 28 79 75 69 1/85 1/85 25 25 98 28 99 13,28 69 69 3/85 3/85 51 25 19 13,28 968 37 26 29 69 75 70 11/85 7/85 1/85 25 25 28 976 978 977 525 109 38 38 38 53 35 76 76 76 90 73 12/85 12/85 12/85 12/85 6/85 37 37 37 55 35 88 25 320 49 Current issue Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Series (page nijmbers) number Charts Tables S Salaries—See Compensation. Sales Final sales, constant dollars Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars Manufacturing and trade sales, Dl Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade Retail sales, constant dollars Retail sales, current dollars Saving Business saving Government surplus or deficit Gross saving Personal saving Personal saving rate Selling prices-See Prices, selling Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change in producer prices Sensitive materials prices, percent change Shipments of defense products Spot market prices, raw industrials Components Diffusion index Spot market index State and local government—See Government. Stock prices—See also International comparisons. 500 common stocks 500 common stocks, Dl Surplus—See Government. 213 52 52 5 69 69 69 69 9/84 9/84 9/84 9/84 26 26 26 26 45 47 38 37 29 11 29 82 83 76 75 70 60 69 11/84 11/84 12/85 12/85 11/85 7/84 9/84 26 26 37 37 27 5 26 29 45 70 82 9/84 10/84 26 47 18 16 28 28 29 29 286 287 972 960 15 916 22 81 282 283 10/84 24 14,22 22 38 15,27 22 22 67 65 65 76 68 65 65 8/85 10/85 10/85 12/85 10/85 4/85 4/85 17 17 17 37 17 20 20 295 298 290 292 292 293 46 46 46 46 46 82 83 82 82 83 11/84 11/84 11/84 11/84 11/84 26 48 43 48 48 98 99 588 28 13,28 54 69 69 91 3/85 3/85 7/85 51 25 17 967 23 37 28 79 75 69 1/85 1/85 "25 25 19 968 13,28 37 69 75 11/85 7/85 25 25 114 115 34 34 72 73 9/85 9/85 35 35 91 60 5 962 15,18 16 12,16 36 62 61 61 74 2/85 2/85 1/85 1/85 9 9 8 8 446 446 445 447 444 37 51 51 51 51 18.51 89 89 89 89 62,89 3/85 3/85 3/85 3/85 2/85 9 9 9 9 9 44 45 43 18 18 18 62 62 62 2/85 3/85 2/85 9 8 9 561 96 25 54 21 21 91 64 64 7/85 6/85 6/85 15 15 15 Velocity of money GNP to money supply M l , ratio Personal income to money supply M2, ratio.. Vendor performance, slower deliveries 107 108 32 31 31 12,21 71 71 64 5/85 4/85 2/85 30 30 17 Wages and salaries—See Compensation. West Germany—See International comparisons. Wholesale (producer) prices—See Price indexes. Workweek, manufacturing Average weekly hours Components Diffusion index 12,16 961 61 77 74 8/85 9/84 1/85 1/85 7/84 50 50 11 Series description (*> 69 57 56 973 77 59 54 Treasury bill rate Treasury bond yields.... 370 358 916 Historical data (issue date) 10/84 47 967 23 284 37 28 45 79 75 69 82 285 93 89 249 47 33 25 47 83 72 67 83 11/84 4/85 9/84 10/84 47 35 40 40 59 54 22 22 65 65 4/85 4/85 20 20 1/85 1/85 10/84 25 25 47 U Unemployment Duration of unemployment, average Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment Initial claims for unemployment insurance Initial claims for unemployment insurance, Dl Number unemployed Both sexes 1619 years of age Females 20 years and over Full-time workers Males 20 years and over , Total unemployed Unemployment rates 15 weeks and over Insured unemployment Total Unfilled orders, manufacturers' Defense products Durable goods industries Durable goods industries, change United Kingdom—See International comparisons. 7/85 NOTE: CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GNP, gross national product; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. * The number shown is the page of the Handbook of Cyclical Indicators (1984) on which the series description appears. 113 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES Series are listed below according to the sections of this report in which they appear. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect relationships or order among the series. " M " following a series title indicates monthly data; "Q" indicates quarterly data. Data apply to the whole period except when indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter). To save space, the commonly usod sources listed below are referred to by number: Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Following the source for each series is an indication of the pages on which that series appears. The "Series Finding Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers for each series. I-A. Composite Indexes 910. Composite index of twelve leading indicators (includes series 1, 5r 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99, 106,111) (Wl).—Source 1 (10,39,60) 914. Composite index of capital investment commitments (includes sertes 12, 20, 29) (M).-Source 1 (11,60) 915. Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 99) (M).-Source 1 (11,60) 10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, and McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis (23,66) 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).—The Conference Board (24,66) 12. Index of net business formation (M).-Source 1; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (12,23,65) 13. Number of new business incorporations (M).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (23,65) 38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order, book value (M).-Source2 (26,68) 39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over (EOM).—American Bankers Association (33,72) 18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars (Q).- • Source 1 (28,69) 40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goodsproducing industries (M).-Source 3 (17,62) 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).— Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96) 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (M).—Source 3 (14,17,62) 42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (M).-Source 3 (17,62) Composite index of money and financial flows (includes series 104, 106, 111) (M).-Source 1 (11,60) Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators (includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).—Source 1 (10,39,60) 21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).— Source 3 (16,61) Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109) (M).-Source 1 (10,39,60) 22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to total corporate domestic income (Q).—Source 1 (29,69) 23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials (M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. (Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981, this series may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.) (28,69,79) I-B. Cyclical Indicators 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M). -Source 3 (12,16,61,77) 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M),—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Econorric Analysis (18,51,62,89) 16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars (Q).— Source 1 (28,69) 917. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to lagging composite index (series 930) (M).—Source 1 (11,60) 36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources 1 and 2 (13,26,68) 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations (Q).—Source 2 and Federal Trade Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (29,70) 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2t and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis (12,23,66) 940. 35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars (Q) -Source 1 (29,70) 37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3 Composite index of profitability (includes series 19,26,80) (M).—Source 1 (11,60) 930. 34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars (Q). Source 1 (29,70) 14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (33,72) 916. 920. 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies ( M ) . Sources 1; 4; American Council of Life Insurance; Federal National Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; and Federal Home Loan Bank Board; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (32,71) 24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Source 2 (23,66) 25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M).—Source 2 (21,64) 26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Sources 1 and 3 43. Unemployment rate (M).-Source 3 (18,62) 44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (M).-Source3 (18,62) 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (18,62) 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).-The Conference Board (16,61) 47. Index of industrial production (M).—Source 4 (14,20,39,58,63,78,94) 48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments (M).-Source3 (17,39,61) 49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source 1 (20,63) 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (19,39,40,63,80) 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars (M).-Source 1 (14,19,39,63) 52. Personal income in 1982 dollars (M).—Source 1 (29,70) (19,63) 6. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, durable goods industries (M).-Source 2 0?l,64,77) 27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1972 dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2 (23,66) 53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Source 1 (19,63) 7. Manufacturers' new orders in 1972 dollars, durable goods industries (M) .-Sources 1 and 2 (21,64) 28. New private housing units started (M).-Source 2 (25,67) 8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1972 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2 (12,21,64) 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M).-Source 2 (13,25,67) (12,16,61) 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space (M). McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (Us;ed by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (?3,66) 114 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Q).— Source 1 (26,42,68,81) 31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories, book value (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (26,68) 32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (M).—Purchasing Management Association of Chicago (12,21,64) 54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M) -Source 2 (22,65) 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles (Q).—Source 1 (22,65) 56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars (M).-Sourcesland2 (22,65) 57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars (M).-Sourcesland2 (14,22,65) 58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M).—University of Michigan, Survey Research Center (22,65) 59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (22,65) TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to number of persons unemployed (M).—Sources 1, 3r and The Conference Board (16,61) 88. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars, producers' durable equipment (Q).— Source 1 (25,67) 61. Expenditures for new plant and equipment by U.S. nonfarm business (Q).—Source 1 (24,67) 89. Gross private residential fixed investment in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67) 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (M).-Sources 1 and 4 (15,30,70) 90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (M).-Sources 1 and 3 (17,62) 63. Index of unit labor cost, business sector (Q).—Source 3 (30,70) 91. Average duration of unemployment in weeks (M).— Source 3 (15,18,62) 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (Q).-Source 1 (30,47,70,83) 93. Free reserves (M).-Source4 65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods, book value (EOM).—Source 2 (27,68) 66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (EOM).Source 4 (35,73) 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).—Source 4 (35,73) 68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross domestic product in 1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations (Q).—Source 1 (30,70) 69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (M),—Source 2 (24,67) 70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1972 dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2 (27,68) 71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, book value (EOM).-Sourcesland2 (27,68) 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4 and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (35,73) 73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures (M).-Source 4 (20,63) 74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures (M).-Source4 (20,63) 75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods (M).-Source4 (22,65) 76. Index of industrial production, business equipment (M).-Source4 (24,67) 77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (15,27,68) 78. Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order, book value (EOM).—Source 2 (27,68) 79. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (29,69) 80. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (29,69) 81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate domestic income (Q).— Source 1 (29,70) 82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (M).— Source 4 (20,64) 84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (M).—Source 4 (20,64) 85. Change in money supply Ml (M).-Source 4 (31,71) 86. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67) 87. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars, structures (Q).-Source 1 (25,67) (33,72) 94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve (M).-Source 4 (33,72) 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income (M).-Sources 1 and 4 (15,35,73) 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).—Source 2 (21,64) 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (EOQ).—The Conference Board (24,66) I-C. Diffusion Indexes 950. Diffusion index of twelve leading indicator components (M).-Source 1 (36,74) 951. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator components (M).—Source 1 (36,74) 952. Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components (M).-Sourcel (36,74) 960. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing—about 600 companies (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (35,75) 961. Diffusion index of average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing industries (M).-Sources 1 and 3 (36,74,77) 962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, 51 areas (M).^Source 1 and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (36,74) 98. Percent change in producer prices for 28 sensitive crude and intermediate materials (M).—Sources 1 and 3 (28,69) 963. Diffusion index of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 172-186 industries (M). Source 3 (36,74) 99. Change in sensitive materials prices (M).—Sources 1, 3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. (13,28,69) 964. Diffusion index of manufacturers' new orders, 34-35 durable goods industries (M). -Sources 1 and 2 (37,75,77) 101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4, and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (15,35,73) 102. Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4 965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations in 1972 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries (Q).—The Conference Board (37,75) (31,71) Change in total liquid assets (M).—Sources 1 and 966. Diffusion index of industrial production, 24 industries (M).-Sources 1 and 4 (37,75,78) 4 (31,71) 967. Diffusion index of spot market prices, 13 raw indus105. Money supply Ml in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1 trial materials (M),—Sources 1, 3, and Commodity and 4 (31,71) Research Bureau, Inc. (37,75,79) 106. Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1 968. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks, and 4 (13,31,71) 45-82 industries (M).—Source 1 and Standard & 107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply M l Poor's Corporation (37,75) (Q).—Sources 1 and 4 (31,71) 104. 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M).— Sources 1 and 4 (31,71) 109. Average prime rate charged by banks (M).—Source 4 (35,73) 110. Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets (Q).-Source 4 (32,72) 111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding (M).—Sources 1, 4, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (13,32,72) 112. 113. 114. 115. 970. Diffusion index of expenditures for new plant and equipment by U.S. nonfarm business, 22 industries (Q).-Sourcel (38,76) 971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about 600 businessmen reporting ( Q ) - D u n & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).— Net change in business loans (M).—Sources 1, 4, Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (32,71) series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) Net change in consumer installment credit (M).— Source 4 (32,72) 973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).— bitts (M).—Source 4 (34,72) Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written Yield on Jong-term Treasury bonds (M).-U.S. Departpermission from the source.) (38,76) ment of the Treasury (34,73) 116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M).—Citibank and U.S. Department of the Treasury (34,73) 117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average ( M ) - T h e Bond Buyer (34,73) 118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages ( M ) . U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration (34,73) 119. Federal funds rate (M).-Source4 (34,72) 974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 115 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued 976. Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing— 243. Gross private domestic fixed investment in 1982 about 600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series 245. Change in business inventories in current dollars may not be reproduced without written permission (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) from the source.) (38,76) 247. Change in business inventories as a percent of 977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale tradegross national product (Q).-Source 1 (47,83) about 400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series 248. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source may not be reproduced without written permission 1 (47,83) from the source.) (38,76) 289. Net interest as a percent of national income ( Q ) Source 1 290. Gross saving (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) (46,82) 292. Personal saving (Q).-Sou r e e l (46,82) 293. Personal saving rate (Q).-Source 1 (46,83) 295. Business saving (Q).—Source 1 (46,82) 298. Government surplus or deficit (Q).—Source 1 (46,83) 978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade—about 249. Gross private residential fixed investment as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source II—B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity 400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, 1 (47,83) 310. Implicit price deflator for gross national product Inc. (Used by permission. Tiis series may not be reproduced without written permission from the 250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars (Q).-Sourcel (48,84) source.) (38,76) (Q).-Source 1 (44,82) 311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product (Q).-Source 1 (48,84) 251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of II—A. National Income and Product gross national product (Q).-Source 1 (47,83) 320. Consumer price index for all urban consumers 30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Q).— 252. Exports of goods and services in current dollars (M).-Source 3 (49,59,84,95) Source 1 (26,42,68,81) (Q).-Sou r e e l (44,82) 322. Consumer price index for all urban consumers, 50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 253. Imports of goods and services in current dollars food(M).-Source3 (49,84) 1 (19,39,40,63,80) (Q).-Source 1 (44,82) 330. Producer price index, all commodities (M).-Source 64. Compensation of employees as percent of national 255. Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars 3 (48,85) income (Q).-Source 1 (30,47,70,83) (Q).-Source 1 (44,82) 331. Producer price index, crude materials for further 200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).— 256. Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars processing (M).-Source 3 (48,85) Source 1 (40,80) (Q).-Source 1 (44,82) 332. Producer price index, intermediate materials, sup213. Final sales in 1982 dollars (Q).-Smirce 1 (40,80) 257. Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars plies, and components (M).-Source 3 (48,86) 217. 220. 223. 224. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).-Sourcesland2 (40,80) National income in current dollars (Q).—Source 1 (45,82) Personal income in current dollars (M).—Source 1 (40,63) Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q).— Source 1 (40,80) (Q).-Source 1 (44,82) 260. Government purchases of goods and services in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) 261. Government purchases of goods and services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) 262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) 333. Producer price index, capital equipment (M).— Source 3 (48,86) 334. Producer price index, finished consumer goods (M).-Source 3 (48,86) 335. Producer price index, industrial commodities (M).-Source3 (48,85) 263. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source 1 (43,81) 340. Index of average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (M).-Source3 (49,87) 225. Disposable personal income in 198? dollars (Q).— Source 1 (40,80) 227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q).—Sources 1 and 2 (40,80) 265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q).— Source 1 (47,83) 341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (M).-Source 3 (49,87) 230. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars (Q). -Source 1 (41,80) 266. State and local government purchases of goods and services in current dollars (Q)-Source 1 (43,81) 345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3 (49,87) 231. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source 1 (41,80) 267. State and local government purchases of goods and services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) 232. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, durable goods (Q).—Source 1 (41,80) 268. State and local government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product 346. Index of real average hourly compensation, alt employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3 (49,88) 233. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, durable goods (Q).—Source 1 (41,80) 280. Compensation of employees (Q).-Source 1 235. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q). Source 1 (45,82) 236. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, nondurable goods (Q).—Source 1 (41,81) 237. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, services (Q).—Source 1 (41,81) 238. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, nondurable goods (Q).—Source 1 (41,81) 239. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, services (Q).-Source 1 (41,81) 240. Gross private domestic investment in current dollars (Q).—Source 1 (42,81) 241. Gross private domestic investment in 19112 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) 242. Gross private domestic fixed investment in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) 116 (Q).-Source 1 (47,83) (45,82) 283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments as a percent of national income (Q).-Source 1 (47,83) 284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment (Q).-Source 1 (45,82) 285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).— Source 1 (47,83) 286. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q).— Source 1 (45,82) 348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average first year changes (Q).-Source 3 (50,88) 349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average changes over life of contract (Q)-Source 3 (50,88) 358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector (Q).-Source 3 (49,88) 370. Index of output per hour, all persons, business sector (Q).-Source 3 (49,88) Il-C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment 37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3 (18,51,62,89) 441. Civilian labor force (M).-Source 3 (51,89) 442, Civilian employment (M).-Source 3 (51,89) 287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valua- 444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over tion and capital consumption adjustments as a (M).-Source 3 (51,89) percent of national income (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over (M).-Source3 (51,89) 288. Net interest (Q).-Source 1 (45,82) TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES—Continued 446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age (M).-Source 3 (51,89) 447. Number unemployed, full-time workers ( M ) . — Source 3 (51,89) 443. Number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (M).-Source 3 (51,89) 451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20 years and over (M).—Source 3 (51,89) 452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20 years and over (M).—Source 3 (51,89) 453. Civilian tabor force participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age (M)-Source 3 (51,89) II—D. Government Activities 500. Federal Government surplus or deficit (Q).—Source 1 (52,90) 501. Federal Government receipts (Q).—Source 1 570. Employment, defense products industries (M).— Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (55,91) 577. Defense Department military personnel on active duty (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports (55,91) 578. Defense Department civilian personnel, direct hire employment (EOM)-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports (55,91) 580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions and military assistance (M).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (54,91) 47. United States, index of industrial production ( M ) . ~ Source 4 (14,20,39,58,63,78,94) 320. United States, consumer price index for alt urban consumers (M).—Source 3 (49,59,84,95) 721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European countries, index of industrial production (M) .—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris) (58,94) 722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M) .-Central Statistical Office (London) (58,94) 723. Canada, index of industrial production ( M ) . Statistics Canada (Ottawa) (58,94) 725. West Germany, index of industrial production (M),— Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden) (58,94) 726. France, index of industrial production (M).—Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris) (58,94) 588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products ( M ) Source 2 (54,91) 727. Italy, index of industrial production (M).-lstituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome) (58,94) 502. Federal Government expenditures (Q).—Source 1 (52,90) Il-E. U.S. International Transactions 510. State and local government surplus or deficit (Q).— Source 1 (52,90) 728. Japan, index of industrial production (M) — Ministry of Internationa! Trade and Industry (Tokyo) (58,94) 602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments (M).— Source 2 (56,92) 511. State and local government receipts (Q).—Source 1 (52,90) 604. Exports of domestic agricultural products (M).— Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) (52,90) 512. State and local government expenditures (Q).— Source 1 (52,90) 517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred (M).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) 525. Defense Department prime contract awards for work performed in the United States (M).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) 543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 612. General imports (M).-Source 2 (56,92) 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military (Q).-Sourcel (57,93) 620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military (Q).-Source 1 ' (57,93) 622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).—Source 1 (57,93) 651. Income on U.S. investment abroad (Q).—Source 1 (57,93) 548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products (M).— Source 2 (53,90) 652. Income on foreign investment in the United States (Q).-Source 1 (57,93) 557. Index of industrial production, defense and space equipment (M).—Source 4 (54,91) 667. Balance on goods and services (Q).—Source 1 559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products, book value(E0M).-Source2 (54,91) 561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (EOM).-Source2 (54,91) 564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q).—Source 1 (55,91) 565. National defense purchases as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source 1 (55,91) (57,93) 668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under U.S. military grants (Q).—Source 1 (57,93) 669. Imports of goods and services (Q).—Source 1 (57,93) II—F. International Comparisons 19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96) 732. United Kingdom, consumer price index ( M ) . — Department of Employment (London); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 733. Canada, consumer price index (M).—Statistics Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,96) 735. West Germany, consumer price index Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of ic Analysis (M).— percent Econom(59,95) 736. France, consumer price index (M).—Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 737. Italy, consumer price index (M).—Istituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,96) 738. Japan, consumer price index (M).—Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M) .-Central Statistical Office (London) (59,96) 743. Canada, index of stock prices ( M ) . — Toronto Stock Exchange (Toronto) (59,96) 745. West Germany, index of stock prices ( M ) . — Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden) (59,96) 746. France, index of stock prices (M).—Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris) (59,96) 747. Italy, index of stock prices (M).-Banca d*Italia (Rome) (59,96) 748. Japan, index of stock prices (M).—Bank of Japan (Tokyo) (59,96) Superintendent of Documents U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 20402 OFFICIAL BUSINESS Penalty for Private Use $300 FIRST-CLASS MAIL POSTAGE & FEES PAID USGPO PERMIT No. G-26