Full text of Business Conditions Digest : December 1968
The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
DECEMBER 1968
DATA THROUGH NOVEMBER
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
This report was prepared in the Statistical
Analysis Division under the direction of Julius
Shiskin, Chief. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are—
Feliks Tamm—Technical supervision and
review,
Barry A. Beckman—Specifications for computer processing,
Gerald F. Donahoe—New projects,
Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment methods,
Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic data.
Editorial supervision is provided by Geraldine
Censky of the Administrative and Publications
Services Division.
The cooperation of various government and
private agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies furnishing
data are indicated in the list of series and
sources at the back of this report.
U.S.
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
C. R. Smith, Secretary
William H. Chartener, Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
A. Ross Eckler, Director
Robert F. Drury, Deputy Director
JULIUS SHISKIN, Assistant Director
ABOUT THE REPORT
ANTICIPATIONS
AND INTENTIONS data
provide information on the plans of
businessmen and consumers regarding their
major economic activities in the near future.
This information is considered to be a valuable
aid to economic forecasting either directly
or as an indication of
the state of confidence
concerning the economic outlook. A
number of surveys by
various organizations
and government
agencies have been
developed in recent
years to ascertain
anticipations and
intentions. The results
of some of these
surveys, expressed as
time series, are
presented in this
report.
C
A
NATIONAL INCOME AND
PRODUCT accounts summarize both receipts and
fina/ expenditures for the
personal, business, foreign, and government
sectors of the economy
and provide usefu/
measures of total
economic activity. The
total of the fina/
expenditures, which
equals the total of the
receipts, is known as
gross national product,
the most comprehensive single measure
of aggregate economic
output. G/VP is defined
as the total market
value of the fina/ output of goods and services produced by the
Nation's economy.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS are economic time series
which have been
singled out as leaders, coincides, or /aggers in relation to movements in
aggregate economic
activity. In this report,
the series on the
NBER's list of cyclical
indicators are classified
by economic process
and by cyclical timing.
These indicators were
selected primarily on
the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but
they have also proven
useful in forecasting,
measuring, and
interpreting other
short-term fluctuations
in aggregate economic
activity.
This monthly report brings together many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters. Its predecessor, Bus/ness Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the
analysis of business conditions and was based largely on
the list of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Some other approaches commonly used by students of economic conditions include econometric models
and anticipations and intentions data. The econometric
model concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships among consumption, private investment, government,
and various components of the major aggregates to generate
forecasts of gross national product and its composition.
Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of businessmen and the intentions of consumers.
Most of the content of Bus/ness Cycle Developments has
been retained in this new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis of other approaches have been added to
to make it more generally useful to those concerned with
an evaluation of current business conditions and prospects.
The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and
business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is
not to be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau
of the Census or any other government agency of any particular approach to economic analysis. This report is intended only to provide statistical information so arranged
as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's
economy.
Almost all of the basic data presented in this report
have been published by their source agencies. A series
finding guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and
data sources, is shown at the back of this report.
Subscription price, including supplements, is $16 a year ($4 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues are $1.50.
Airmail delivery is available at an additional charge. For information about domestic or foreign airmail delivery, write to the Super
intendent of Documents (address below), enclosing a copy of your address label. Make checks payable to the Superintendent c
Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402, or to any U.S. Department of Commerce Field Office
New Features and Changes for This Issue
4 Census Projects on Economic Fluctuations....
ltd*
iii
iv
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
1
MCD Moving Averages
1
Reference Turning Dates
Section A. National Income and Product
SINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
..
1
1
Section B. Cyclical Indicators
:a Through November
•ies ESI No. 68-12
3
3
Section E. Analytical Measures
Section F. International Comparisons
.CEMBER 1968
2
Section C. Anticipations and Intentions.
Section D. Other Key Indicators
3
3
Howto Read Charts
4
Summary of Recent Data and Current Percent Changes
5
PART I. CHARTS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Al
A2
Gross National Product
A3
A4
Personal Consumption Expenditures
11
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
12
13
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
9
National and Personal Income.
10
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
14
Final Sales and Inventories
15
National Income Components
Saving
16
17
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
18
21
Fixed Capital Investment...
Inventories and Inventory Investment
23
26
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
28
30
Selected Indicators by Timing
Composite Indexes.
NBER Short List
34
35
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
39
42
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade
45
Balance of Payments and Major Components
Federal Government Activities
46
.•
51
Price Movements..
53
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
El
E2
Actual and Potential Gross National Product
Analytical Ratios.....
E3
Diffusion Indexes
55
56
-
58
F2 1
F3 I
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices
::
60
.61
...62
v
PART II. TABLES
Al I
A2
A3
"AT
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9|
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services...
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
'.
63
63
64
64
65
65
65
65
66
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Bl]
B2
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment...
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
,
Selected Indicators by Timing
Composite Indexes
-
67
69
70
72
73
74
76
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
77
78
-...
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade...
Balance of Payments and Major Components
80
81
Federal Government Activities
83
Price Movements
..84
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Actual and Potential GNP...
85
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
Diffusion Index Components
86
87
.90
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices...
Industrial Production....
Stock Prices
96
97
98
APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability...
B. Current Adjustment Factors
C. Historical Data for Selected Series....
99
102
103
Index—Series Finding Guide
113
Titles and Sources of Series
115
11
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to Incorporate recent findings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc, Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
1. Appendix A presents MOD and related measures of variability
or all monthly series. Similar measures for quarterly series will
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of
indexes, etc.
e shown in the January 1969 issue.
2. Appendix C includes historical data for all series included
n section D2 (balance of payments and major components) and for
eries 31, 47, 62, 8$3, and D47. Descriptions of series 31 and
he balance of payments series will be shown in appendix D of a
ubsequent issue.
Descriptions for the other series were published
n the November 1968 issue.
'he January issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for
•elease on January 30.
111
4 CENSUS PROJECTS on economic fluctuations
BUSINESS CONDITIONS
DIGEST
DEFENSE INDICATORS
LONG TERM
ECONOMIC GROWTH
A monthly report for
analyzing the current and
prospective impact of
defense activity on the
national economy.
A monthly report for
analyzing economic
fluctuations over a short
span of years.
This report brings together a
large number of monthly
and quarterly economic time
series for the analysis of
short-term economic conditions and prospects.
The series selected are
those considered most useful
and reliable for this purpose.
This publication provides not
only the basic data, but also
charts and analytical tables
to facilitate interpretation.
In addition, a time series
punchcard file and a diffusion
index program are available
for those who wish to carry
on further research in this
field.
A report for the study of
economic fluctuations
over a long span of years,
1860-1965.
This report has been
developed from available
statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view
of the U.S. economy. It has
been planned, prepared, and
published as a basic research
document for economists,
historians, investors, teachers,
and students. It brings
together for the first time
under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the
complete statistical basis for
a study of long-term economic trends. It is a unique
presentation of the full range
of factors required for an
understanding of our
country's economic development. Some of the statistical
series go back to 1860. A
punchcard file of the time
series included in the report
is available for purchase.
This report brings together
the principal time series on
defense activities which
influence short-term changes
in the national economy.
These include series on
obligations, contracts, orders,
shipments, inventories,
expenditures, employment,
and earnings. The approximately 30 time series included
are grouped in accordance
with the time at which the
activities they measure occur
in the defense order-production-delivery process. Most
are monthly series, although
a few are quarterly. This
publication provides original
and seasonally adjusted basic
data in monthly, quarterly,
and annual form. Charts and
analytical tables are included
to facilitate interpretation.
IV
CENSUS METHOD
ADJUSTMENT
PROGRAM
A time series computer
program for measuring
and analyzing seasonal,
trading-day, cyclical, and
irregular fluctuations
and the relations among
them. This program is
particularly useful in
analyzing economic
fluctuations which
take place within a year.
The latest variant, X—ll, has
greater generality and scope
than any of the earlier
programs. It can adjust
quarterly as well as monthly
series and series with
negative and positive numbers
as well as those with positive
numbers alone. The X-ll
version measures and adjusts
not only for seasonal variations, but also for trading-day
variations. Further, it computes many summary and
analytical measures of the
behavior of each series. The
program includes various
techniques, such as F tests
and variance analysis, for
use in extending the scope of
time series studies and is
written in a simplified computer language—Fortran /V.
The program deck can be
purchased from the Census
Bureau at cost.
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
THIS REPORT is organized into six major
subject sections, as follows:
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
National Income and Product
Cyclical Indicators
Anticipations and Intentions
Other Key Indicators
Analytical Measures
International Comparisons
Each of these sections is described briefly
in this introduction. Data for each of the
above sections are shown both in Part I
(charts) and in Part II (tables) of the report. The charts begin with 1948 (except
in section C where they begin with 1957);
the tables contain data for only the last
few years. Except for section F, the charts
contain shading which indicates periods of
recession in general business activity.
In addition to the charts and tables described above, each issue contains a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series, and several
appendixes which present historical data,
series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of variability. An
index appears at the back of each issue.
It should be noted that the series numbers
used are for identification purposes only
and do not reflect relationships or order.
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the
underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive
intrayear variations resulting primarily
from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to
holidays are usually accounted for by the
seasonal adjustment process; however, a
separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable
dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation
due to the number of working or trading
days in each month. As used in this report,
the term "seasonal adjustment" includes
trading-day and holiday adjustments where
they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and,
in most cases, these are the official figures
released by the source agencies. However,
for the special purposes of this report, a
number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here
on a seasonally adjusted basis.
MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are
often dominated by erratic movements.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is
an estimate of the appropriate span over
which to observe cyclical movements in a
monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the
smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is
greater than that in the irregular factor.
The more erratic a series is, the larger the
MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD
moving averages (that is, moving averages
of the period equal to MCD) tend to have
about the same degree of smoothness for
all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average
of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its
cyclical movements about as clearly as the
seasonally adjusted data for a series with
an MCD of 1.
The charts for sections B and D include
centered MCD moving averages for all
series with an MCD greater than 4. The
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations
for the most recent months.
Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates
used in this report are those designated
by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached
its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, neither new reference
turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until
after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the
shaded area have been designated. This
policy is followed because of the conceptual and empirical difficulties of designating a current recession and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading
of a current recession without including
part of a new expansion.
SECTION A
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by the Office of Business Economics (OBE), summarize both receipts
and final expenditures for the personal,
business, foreign, and government sectors
of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total
of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which
equals the total of the receipts (mainly
incomes), is known as gross national
product (GNP). GNP is defined as the
total market value of the final output of
goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output.
Gross national product consists of four
major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods
and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services.
Persona/ consumpt/on expenditures is the
market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the
value of food, clothing, housing, and finan-
cial services received by them as income
in kind. The total purchase cost is covered,
including sales taxes. Home purchases are
excluded, but the estimated rental value
of owner-occupied homes is included.
Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net
changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable
equipment and private (as opposed to
government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates
are gross in the sense that there is no
deduction for capital consumption. The
inventory component measures the change
in the physical volume of inventories valued at current replacement cost.
Net exports of goods and services measures
the excess of exports over imports of goods
and services. Exports include both domestic output sold abroad and the contribution to production abroad made by U.S.owned resources. Imports include both
U.S. purchases of foreign output and the
contribution made to production in the
United States by foreign-owned resources.
More detail on U.S. balance of payments
is provided in section D.
Government purchases of goods and services includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net
purchases from business and from abroad,
payments to private nonprofit institutions
for research and development, and the
gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays
of government enterprises, acquisitions of
land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,
and interest payments to domestic creditors.
A breakdown of the goods output portion
of GNP, covering durable and nondurable
goods and both final sales and changes in
business inventories, is also included in
section A. Other major aggregates taken
from the national income and product
accounts are described below.
National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods
and services and accruing to the labor and
property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income,
rental income of persons, corporate profits
and the inventory valuation adjustment,
and net interest.
Personal income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions,
private trust funds, and private health and
welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income,
and transfer payments to persons, less
personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable persona/ income is the personal
income available for spending or saving.
It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments
to general government.
Gross saving represents the difference between income and spending during an ac-
counting period. It is the total of personal
saving, undistributed corporate profits,
corporate inventory valuation adjustment,
the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government
surplus or deficit, and capital consumption
allowances.
Most of the series in this section are on
a current-dollar basis, but some are shown
on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that
the effects of price changes are eliminated.
The implicit price deflator (computed by
dividing the current-dollar data by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP is also
shown.
tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical
indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to
movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained
a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 72
cyclical indicators is the basis for this section of BCD. These indicators were
selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful
in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity, such as changes
in the rate of growth.
SECTION B
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
The business cycle is generally described
as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as
total production, employment, income,
consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.
Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it
inevitable.
One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a
The NBER employs a dual classification
scheme which groups the indicators by
cyclical timing and by economic process,
and this report uses the same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system
used in this section. The 72 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification
and cyclical timing as the secondary basis.
Each of the major processes is subdivided
into minor processes which exhibit rather
distinct differences in cyclical timing. The
timing classification takes into account a
series' historical record of timing at business cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators are those which usually reach
peaks or troughs before the corresponding
turns in aggregate economic activity;
roughly coincident indicators are direct
measures of aggregate economic activity
or move roughly together with it; lagging
indicators usually reach their turning points
after the turns in aggregate economic
activity.
The NBER has also specified a "short list"
of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal
indicators is drawn from the full list and
provides a convenient summary of the
current situation. The short list consists of
26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these
are quarterly series; the rest are monthly.
The short list is classified only by timing
and is charted separately.
Also included in this section is a group
of composite indexes. These indexes provide simple summary measures of the
average behavior of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is
weighted according to its value in forecasting or identifying short-term movements in
aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each indicator has, aside from its weight, an equal
opportunity to influence the index, and the
index is standardized so that its average
month-to-month change during the postwar period is 1.0 percent per month.
The composite indexes presented in this
report are based on groups of indicators
selected by timing. Thus, there is an index
of leading indicators, another of coincident
indicators, and a third of lagging indicators. These indexes indicate the underlying cyclical trends of each group of indicators and the relative magnitude of their
short-term changes. The index of 12 leading indicators has been "reverse trend adjusted" so that its long-run trend parallels
that of the coincident index. This facilitates comparisons among the leading,
Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
\.
>v
Economic
Process
N.
>v
1. EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(14 series)
N^^
Cyclical
Timing
II. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(8 series)
III. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)
IV. INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment
commitments
(8 series)
Inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)
V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(10 series)
VI. MONEY
AND CREDIT
(17 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices
(1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit
margins
(4 series)
Flows of money
and credit
(6 series)
, Credit difficulties
<2 series)
>v
^v
Marginal employment
adjustments
(5 series)
LEADING INDICATORS
(36 series)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
(25 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
{3 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
, (3 series)
Long-duration
unemployment
(I series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(11 series)
Comprehensive
Backlog of investment
production
commitments
(3 series)
(2 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive
consumption
and trade <3 series)
Investment
expenditures
(2 series)
Comprehensive
wholesale
prices
(2 series)
Inventories
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Money market interest
rates
(4 series)
Unit tabor costs
(2 series)
Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates on
business loans
and mortgages
<2 series)
coincident, and lagging indexes and tends
to shorten the leads of the leading index
at business cycle peaks while lengthening
them at troughs; it also reduces the variability of the leads and lags.
SECTION C
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS
Most businessmen and many individual
consumers have some type of plans as to
their major economic activities in the near
future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication
of the state of confidence concerning the
economic outlook. In recent years, much
progress has been made in compiling such
information, and a number of surveys by
various organizations and government
agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The
results of some of these surveys, expressed
as time series, are presented in this section of the report.
The business analyst who uses these series should be aware of their limitations.
These data reflect only the respondents'
anticipations (what thev expect others to
do) or intentions (what they plan to do),
not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses
may not be very reliable; that is, the
plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many
plans are subject to modification or even
complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments.
In some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for
example, the anticipations (or intentions)
data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic
conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what
has already occurred and hence appear to
lag behind actual changes. Actual data are
included in this section to indicate their
historical relationship to the anticipations
and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the
description for section E.
SECTION D
OTHER KEY
INDICATORS
Many economic series are available which,
although not included in the three main
sections of the report, are nevertheless
important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of
such series, though by no means a com
prehensive selection. In general, these series reflect processes which are not direct
measures of economic activity but which
do have a significant bearing on business
conditions.
The foreign trade and payments series
include data on imports and exports and
their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts
are shown. Some are charted in a manner
which emphasizes the balance between
receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports
of goods and services, and income on
U.S. investments abroad with payments on
foreign investments in the United States.
In addition, balances are shown for U.S.
Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the
private sector (banks and U.S. residents
other than banks).! Finally, cumulative
changes are shown for other components;
for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all
foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets.
Because these data are influenced by
foreign as well as domestic conditions,
the cyclical shading has been omitted
from the balance-of-payments charts.
The Federal Government activities, series
include Federal receipts and expenditures
and their balance, and selected Federal defense activities. The receipts and expenditures data are from the national income and
product accounts, but are not shown in
section A of this report. The defense series
included are only a few of the many available. For a more comprehensive picture of
defense activities, see Defense Indicators,
a monthly Bureau of the Census publication.
The price movements series consist of
consumer and wholesale price indexes and
their major components. Additional data
on prices and costs are shown in several
other sections.
SECTION E
ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
This section begins by comparing gross
national product in constant dollars with
a measure of potential GNP. In effect,
these two series reflect the relationship
between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree
to which potentially productive resources
are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of
Economic Advisers in the early 1960's,
takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour.
The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic variables (for example, the series on labor cost
per unit of output). There are, however,
additional analytical ratios which have
proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such
ratios are shown in the second I part |of
this section.
The third part presents diffusion indexes
for selected economic activities. Many of
the series throughout this report are aggregates compiled from a number of
components. A diffusion index is a simple
summary measure which expresses, for a
particular aggregate, the percentage of
components rising over a given timespan.
It reflects only directions of change among
the components, not magnitudes. Cyclical
changes in diffusion indexes tend to lead
those of the corresponding aggregates.
Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic,
long-term (6- or 9-month span) diffusion
indexes are shown to bring out the underlying trends and short-term (month-tomonth) indexes are shown to indicate the
most recent developments. Most of the
diffusion indexes are based on aggregate
series shown in section B, and have the
same series numbers preceded by the
letter "D". The diffusion indexes are classified according to the cyclical timing of the
aggregates to which they relate.
The final part (E4), which appears only as
a table, lists many of the components
used in computing the diffusion indexes.
Where possible, recent data for the components are shown and the month-tomonth directions of change are indicated.
SECTION F
INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Because this report is designed as an aid
to the analysis of U.S. business conditions,
all previous sections are based on data
which relate directly to that purpose. But
many business analysts examine economic
developments in other important countries
with a view to their impact on the United
States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which
we have important trade relationships.
Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West
Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series.
Also included is an industrial production
index for the European countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price
indexes measure an important sector of
prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from the charts.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end
of expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas) asdesignated by NBER.
Basic Data
(May) (Feb.)
P T
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly
figures or MCD moving averages.*)
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end
of recession and beginning of
Expansion as designated by
NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
("6" = June)
Roman number indicates latest
W quarter for which data are
plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.)
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given
distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in
that distance, etc. The scales
should be carefully noted because
they show whether the plotted
lines for various series are directly comparable.
Scale shows percent of components rising.
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans.
*Many of the more irregular
series are shown in terms of their
MCD moving averages as well as
their actual monthly data. In such
cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted 1%, 2,
or 2y2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD
moving averages.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("6" =
June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("I" —
first quarter)
Broken line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over various spans.
NOTE: Some of the charts of
anticipations and intentions data
(section C) and balance of payments data (section D) do not
conform to the above method of
presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
To locate a series in BCD, consult the "Index—Series Finding Guide" in the back of the book where series are arranged into six
and Sources of Series" which follows the Finding Guide, series are
the charts and tables in which they appear are indicated.
sections and various subsections. Also,~in the list of 'Titles
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
listed in numerical order within each of the six sections, and
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Percent Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data 1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
1965
1966
1967
2dQ
1967
3dQ
1967
Percent change
4th Q
1967
IstQ
1968
2dQ
1968
3dQ
1968
4th Q
to
IstQ
1968
IstQ
to
2dQ
1968
2dQ
to
3dQ
|
1968
o3
oo
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Al. Gross National Product
200.
205.
210.
215.
217.
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
Ann.rate,bil.dol. . 684.9
617.8
do
1958=100
110.9
Ann. rate, dol ... •3,518
do
3,174
3,924
3,365
795.3
675.6
117.7
3,988
3,388
811.0
681.8
118.9
4,055
3,409
831.2
692.7
120.0
4,U7
3,^56
852.9
703.4
121.2
4,245
3,501
871.0
712.3
122.3
4,323
3,536
+2.5
+1.6
+0.9
+2.3
+1.4
+2.6
+1.5
+1.0
+2.4
+1.3
645.1
621.6
541.5
476.3
656.9
633.7
550.0
479.5
670.9
645.2
559.6
483.7
688.1
662.7
574.4
491.8
705.4
678.1
586.3
497.1
722.5
694.3
592.7
499.2
+2.6
+2.7
+2.6
+1.7
+2.5
+2.3
+2.1
+1.1
+2.4
+2.4
+1.1
+0.4
220
222
224
225
2,918
2,942
+2.4
+1.8
+0.8
226
747.6
657.1
113.8
3,796
3,337
789.7
673.1
117.3
3,965
3,380
780.2
669.2
116.6
620.8
586.8
511.6
459.2
652.9
628.8
546.3
478.0
+2.1
+1.3
+0.9
+1.8
+1.0
200
205
210
215
217
A2. National and Personal Income
220.
222
224.
225.
226.
National income, current dollars
Ann.rate,bil.dol. .
do
Personal income current dollars
Disposable personal income, current dol. . .
do
Disposable personal income, constant dol. .
do
Per capita disposable personal income,
current dollars
Ann. rate, dol ...
227. Per capita disposable personal income,
constant dollars
do
564.3
538.9
473.2
435.0
2,432
2,598
2,744
2,723
2,758
2,798
2,866
2,235
2,332
2,401 2,395
2,404
2,418
2,454
2,474
2,478
+1.5
+0.8
+0.2
227
432.8
397.7
66.3
40.5
25.8
1 11
9 .
175.5
465.5
417.8
70.5
45.2
25.3
206.7
188.3
492.2
430.5
72.6
47.7
24.9
215.8
203.8
490.3
431.2
495.5
431.8
73.1
47.7
25.4
216.4
205.9
502.2
434,1
74.2
48.9
25.3
218.4
209.6
519.4
444.9
79.0
50.6
28.4
226.5
213.9
527.9
447.5
81.0
52.0
29.0
228.2
218.7
541.1 +3.4
455.7
+2.5
85.1
+6.5
53.5
+3.5
31.6 -T-L2.3
232.7
+3.7
+2.1
223.4
+1.6
+0.6
+2.5
+2.8
+2.1
+0.8
+2.2
+2.5
+1.8
230
231
232
233
234
236
237
108.1 120.8 114.3
83.6
81.3
71.3
28.5
27.9
25.5
45.8
52.8
55.7
27.2
24.8
24.6
+9.6 +14.7' +6.1
107.6
55.5
22.7
+2.3
114.7
83.3
27.7
55.6
26.0
+5.3
121.8
85.0
27.7
57.3
28.5
+8.3
119.7
88.6
29.6
59.0
29.1
+2.1
127.3
87.0
28.5
58.5
29.5
+10.8
127.1
90.1
28.8
61.3
29.5
+7.5
-1.7
+4.2
+6.9
+3.0
+2.1
-6.2
+6.3
-1.8
-3.7
-0.8
+1.4
+8.7
-0.2
+3.6
+1.1
+4.8
A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
230
231.
232.
233.
Total current dollars
Ann.rate,bil.dol..
do
Total, constant dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
do
Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars .
do
do
236. Nondurable goods, current dollars
do
do
237. Services current dollars
73.4
47.6
25.8
215.3
201.6
+5.1
+2.9
+9.0
+2.0
+2.1
A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240.
241.
242.
243.
244.
245.
Gross private domestic investment total . .
Fixed investment, total nonresidential ....
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures
Fixed investment, producers' dur. equip. . .
Fixed investment, residential structures. . .
Change in business inventories total 2 . . .
do
do
do
do
do
do
82.7
27.2
240
241
242
243
0.0 244
-3.3
245
A5. Foreign Trade
250. Net exports of goods and services 2
252 Exports
253. Imports
+6.9
39.2
32.3
+5.1
43.1
38.1
+4.8
45.8
41.0
+5.1
45.5
40.4
+5.4
46.1
40.6
+3.4
46.0
42.6
+1.5
47.5
46.0
+2.0
49.9
47.9
+3-3
52.6
49. A
-1.9
+3.3
+8.0
+0.5
+5.1
+4.1
+1.3
+5.4
+3.1
250
252
253
156.2
77. 4
60.6
78.8
178.4
90.6
72.4
87.8
177.3
do
do
137.0
66.9
50.1
70.1
90.0
72.1
87.2
179.6
91.3
72.9
88.4
183.5
93.5
74.6
90.0
190.5
97.1
76.8
93.4
195.7
100.0
79.0
9.5.6
199.6
101.2
79.6
98.4
+3.8
+3.9
+2.9
+3.8
+2.7
+3.0
+2.9
+2.4
+2.0
+1.2
+0.8
+2.9
260
262
264
266
do
133.0
145.7
156.4
157.1
157.3
159.9
166.7
169.1 175.1
+4.3
+1.4
+3.5
270
+6.7
204.7
+10.2
221.8
+3.0
234.5
+0.6
234.7
+3.8
236.2
+4.2
236.6
+6.2
+1.5
246.1 248.5
+4.9
254.4
-2.7
+4.0
+4.7
+1.0
-1.3
+2.4
271
274
do .
+3.0
+4.5
+3.1
+1.7
+1.6
+4.1
+0.6
+4.6
+2.5
-3.5
+4.0
-2.1
275
do
do
do .
do
do
393.8
57.3
19.0
76.1
18.2
435.6
60.7
19.8
83.9
20.8
468.2
60.7
20.3
80.4
23.3
A.61.8
471.5
61.2
20.4
80.2
23.6
482.7
61.1
20.5
82.3
24.3
496.8
61.8
20.7
83.8
25.0
507.1
62.6
20.9
89.2
25.8
519.7
63.4
21.0
91.6
26.7
+2.9
+1.1
+1.0
+1.8
+2.9
+2.1
+1.3
+1.0
+6.4
+3.2
+2.5
+1.3
+0.5
+2.7
280
282
284
286
288
do
do
115.3
28.4
126.3
32.9
119.5
40.2
113.0
120.1
40.5
126.9
43.4
123.3
40.8
130.1
44.0
132.9
37.1
-2.8
-6.0
+5.5
+7.8
do
24.9
59.8
+2.2
27.5
64.1
+1.7
24.0
69.2
-13.8
23.4
68.4
23-5
70.0
-14.0
24.8
71.2
-12.5
20.4
72.3
-10.3
23.6
73.7
-11.3
25.0
74.9
-4.1
-17.7
+1.5
+2.2
+0.6
+1.1
-1.1
-Q.O
-/, .?
do
do
do
A6. Government Purchases of Goods
and Services
260.
262.
264.
266.
Total
Federal
National defense
State and local
do .
.... do .
;
A7. Final Sales and Inventories
270. Final sales, durable goods
271. Change in business inventories, durable
goods2
274. Final sales, nondurable goods
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods 2
280.
282.
284.
286.
288.
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income
Rental income of persons
Corp. profits and inventory valuation adj. . .
Net interest . 0
do
do
60.5
20.2
79.6
22.9
+3.5
A9. Saving
290. Gross saving, total
292. Personal saving
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment ........
298. Government surplus or deficit, total 2
El.
. . . „ . do
do
37.0
-15.9
-15-7
290
292
+15.7
+1.9
-1.0
+5.9
+1.6
+7.2
294
296
298
-?.Q
-9.0
707
+2.2
Actual and Potential GNP
207. GNP eao (potential less actual) 2
do
+S.O
-10.0
-0.1
+O.L
-7.0
Basic data1
Series title
Unit
of
measure
1966
1967
Percent change
IstQ
2dQ
3dQ
Sept.
1968
1968
1968
1968
Oct.
1968
Nov.
1968
Sept.
to
Oct.
Oct.
1968
Nov.
1968
+2^5
+0.1
+0.7
+0.8
+1.3
+1.2
-0.5
-2.8
to
IstQ
to
2dQ
2dQ
to
3dQ
1968
1968
Series number
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Percent Changes for Principal Indicators—Con.
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
67. Composite Indexes
810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj . .Jan. 1948=100. . . 270.3
288.5
329.4
do
dO
271.3 285.4
304.8 322.2
355.2 373.5
290.1 297.8
329.2 336.0
385.4 392.5
300.4 308.0
337.8 340.2
396.0 399.2
308.2
344.5
404.0
+1.6
+2.2
+3.2
+2.7
+2.1
+1.8
810
820
830
+0.7
+4.2
*1
*4
2
Bl. Employment and Unemployment
LEADING INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
41.3
* 1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg . . . Hours
Ann. rate, thous. . 6,542
2
2. Accession rate manufacturing .
Per 100 employ . . 5.0
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State
3
198
unemployment insurance (inverted )
Thousands.
1.2
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted^)2 . . .Per 100 employ..
40.6
40.6
40.6
40.9
41.1
41.0
40.8
-0.2
5,838
4.4
5,884
4.4
5,656
4.6
5,896
4.6
5,760
4.7
5,580
4.7
5,424
-3.1
226
1.4
200
1.3
191
1.2
200
1.2
186
1.2
178
1.1
345
182
368
193
388
188
388
201
388
219
376
213
370
222
(NA)
183
(NA)
0.0
(NA)
-3.9
+0.2
+4.3
+0.1
-2.8
(NA)
+4.5
+0.1
-3.1
-2.7
-1.6
+4.2
+5.4
-2.6
+6.9
49
46
-0.3
+0.3
+0.3
+1.0
+0.7
+0.6
+1.1
+0.6
+0.6
48
*41
42
0.0
0.0
-4.7
0.0
5
3
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Job Vacancies:
46. Help-wanted advertising
Thous., EOP....
1957-59=100....
404
190
0.0
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Man-hours in nonagri. establishments
Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours
*41 Employees on nonagri payrolls
Mil 1 ions
do
42 Persons engaged in nonagri. activities . . .
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted3)2
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate
(inverted3)2
40. Unemployment rate, married males
(inverted3)2.
129.3
131.8
133.4
134.7
136.2
136.3
136.3
135.9
64.0
68.9
66.0
70.5
67.4
71.5
67.9
71.9
68.3
72.3
68.4
72.4
68.6
72.5
68.8
72.7
3.8
Percent
3o8
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.3
0.0
+0.3
+0.1
0.0
do
2.3
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.0
2.0
+0.1
do
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.6
-0.1
do
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
Ann.rate,bil.dol. . 747.6
do
657.1
1957-59=100 .... 156.3
789.7
673.1
158.1
831.2
692.7
162.1
852.9
703.4
164.2
871.0
712.3
165.2
165.1
165*7
16?! 4
Comprehensive Income:
* 52. Personal income
Ann.rate.bil.dol. . 586.8
53 Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr. . .
156.6
do
628.8
163.9
662.6
172.7
678.2
175.9
694.3
178.9
699.7
180.6
703.2
181.9
1,047
732.8
303.6
1,069
783.6
313.8
1,126
829.1
330.4
1,152 1,180
842.1 863.5
337.0 346.8
1,189
Formation of Business Enterprises:
* 12. Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations
1957-59=100.... 105.5
Ann. rate, thous. . 200.3
107.7
207.8
113.9
212,8
115.1
226.6
New Investment Commitments:
* 6. New orders, durable goods industries
8. Construction contracts, total value
*10. Contracts and orders, plant, equipment . .
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing
24. New orders, mach. and equip, industries. .
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial buildings.
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
* 29. New bldg. permits, private housing
Ann.rate.bil.dol.. 308.1
147
1957-59=100....
.Ann.rate.bil.dol. . 75.5
25.0
do
do
63.3
Ann. rate, mil. sq.
ft.floor space. . 769.7
Ann. rate, thous. . 1,149
86.2
1957-59=100....
302/4
155
326.6 325.0
164
159
+0.3
0.0
0.0
+0.1
0.0 *43
0.0
45
40
+0.1
+0.1
0.0
+0.1
+0.1
0.0 *44
+0.4
+1.0
+2.6
+1.5
+1.3
+1.3
+0.6
*200
»205
*47
707.0
182.8
+0.5
+0.7
+0.5
+0.5
+2.4
+1.9
+2.4
+1.7
»52
53
1,198
(NA)
+0.8
(NA)
346.4
344.6
349 '.7
-0.5
+1.5
+2.3
+1.6
+2.0
+2.4
+2.5
+2.9
*56
57
*54
120.3
243.3
122.1
254.8
125.2
260.7
(NA)
(NA)
+2.5
+2.3
(NA)
(NA)
+1.1
+6.5
+4.5
+7.4
*12
13
-2.3
-8.5
-0.5
-3.0
+1.8
+3.6
+4.2
+1.7
*6
8
*10
11
24
LAGGING INDICATORS
Long Duration Unemployment:
*44. Unemploy. rate, .15 weeks and over
(inverted3)2
0.0
B2. Production, Income, Consumption,
and Trade
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Production:
*200. GNP in current dollars
*205. GNP in 1958 dollars.
*47. Industrial production
+2.1
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
57. Final sales
* 54. Sales of retail stores
do
do
.... do ....
B3. Fixed Capital Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
330.5
187
340.6
183
+6.7
+9.3
78.7
22.0
64.9
80.1
22.8
67.6
88.0
24.9
70.6
86.4
363.4
200
101.4
355.0
183
75.4
23.0
63.0
89.3
-rL7.4
71.0
78.6
75.1
+10.7
-4.5
702.9
1,273
770.0
1,469
112.9
721.6
1,418
109.2
797.6
1,524
110.6
739.1
1,570
116.4
955.6
1,533
115.2
842.8
1,649
116.2
+29.3
-11.8
95.6
-2.4
-1.0
-7.6
+0.9
77.99
20.72
80.58
20.41
81.75
20.48
80.97
20.60
80.57
21.06
80.57
81.89
82.57
+1.6
^0.8
60.54
61.69
64.75
62.65
63.45
76.90
80.72
80.92
82.52 85.08
-11.9
+17.6
+9.9
+9.2
^4.4
-6.3
-3.5
-3.3
+10.5
+1.3
9
7
»29
-1.0
+0.6
-0.5
+2.2
96
97
-3.2
+1.3
*61
+0.2
^2.0
+7.5
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries 4 . B'' p . do!., EOP...
97. Backlog of capital approp. manufacturing 4 ^.
do
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment Expenditures:
» 61. Business expend., new plant and equip. . . Ann.rate.bil.dol..
69. Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures ....
do
72.51
85.70
(NA)
+0.7
(NA)
69
Tabler 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Percent Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
Percen t change
Basic dat 3 ]
-Q
Unit
of
measure
Series title
1966
IstQ
3dQ
Sept.
1968
1967
2dQ
1968
1968
1968
Sept.
to
Oct.
1968
Nov.
1968
Oct.
1968
Oct.
Nov.
1968
IstQ
to
2dQ
1968
to
E
2dQ
to
3dQ
1968
X
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
LEADING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
245. Change in business inventories, al!
industries 2 .
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories 2
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories"
20. Change in book value, manufacturers'
inventories of materials supp'ies 2 .
26. Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or Ionger 2l u) ....
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
Ann. rate,
bil dol
+14.7
+6.1
+2.1
+10.8
+7.5
do
+16 0
+6 6
_i_£-
.-|o c
+-U . :>
-t-rt
Percent • •
Ann. rate,
bil dol .
>i
CO
>J>
C
5
0
3
-t-Q .U
+3 n
55
A
, -| f.
rt
/M. \
(NAJ
5
60
62
iq
; L
-1.6
1-4 8
50
71
6
70
4A
+13.0
+2.6
+4.7J
-3.2
137.2
143-8
145.2
148.5
150.7
do
25.14
26.81
27.21
27 6^
115.2
100.4
99.8
6
/»T. \
(.NA;
0
0
-4.7
44
+1.9
do
Ann. rate,
bil dol .
+7.2
42
+0.9
Bil. dol., HOP...
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods
industries 2 .
L
t-
//
CO
, Q
r-\
Percent
C
+V.D
51
+3-5
/O
+8 7
37
+2
+1.0
60
+2
An
(NA)
+3.0
-1.4
20
26
,L
~~
?^
*31
+3
32
-7 Q
+1 6
25
(NA)
+2.3
+1.5
*71
+0 7
(NA )
+1 6
+9 Q
100.3
+1.5
+2.9
-3-1
-1.7
105 L\
+2 5
+1
_i_ rj
+15 8
1-8 0
il 0
-l
150.7
152.1
(NA)
1-0.9
28 44
28 44
28 64
(NA 1
96.7
95.1
96.1
97.5
101 3
1Q3 8
7 8
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventories:
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade
inventories 4
65. Book value, manufacturers' inventories
of finished goods4
65
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23. Industrial materials prices ©
1957-59=100 ...
Stock Prices:
*19 Stock prices 500 common stocks®
194143=10
85 3
91 9
91 6
98 0
99 9
Ann. rate, bil. dol •
51.0
48.1
49.1
50.7
51.2
Profits and Profit Margins:
*16. Corporate profits, after taxes
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate al! industries2.
18. Profits per dollar of sales mfg. 2 ... .
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,
manufacturing
^
p.
+3.3
c.
O P)
8 8
+0 2
n
, -I
*23
Q
+1.0
*19
*16
11 7
8 6
11 7
8 8
100.7
99.8
99.8
98.7
98.0
98.0
98.8
0.0
^0.8
106.3
106.7
108.2
108.6
108.7
109.2
109.0
109.7
109.2
109.9
109.7
110.0
109.9
110.3
+0.5
+0.1
+0.2
i0.3
+0.5
+0.6
+0.3
+0.5
55
58
Dollars
0.677 0.706 0.721
1957-59=100 . . i m i 1 p)A pi 1 p)rt rj
0 721
o 725
mi
1 21 112.3
1 .
/
m.6
+0.2
•••
-0.6
0 0
+0.7
H-n A
+1.5
» C9
*b/i
Percent
Cents
13 5
9.3
12 0
8.3
1957=59=100 ...
104.5
1957-59=100 ...
do
104.7
105.7
0.0
_n o
O p)
-1.1
99
LL
10
*17
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55, Wholesale prices, indus. commodities /u).
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods®.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Unit Labor Costs:
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
*62 Labor cost per unit of output mfg.
n no c
68
B6. Money and Credit
LEADING INDICATORS
Flows of Money and Credit:
98, Change in money supply and time
33
*113
112
110.
t2
Change in mortgage deb
Change in consumer installment debt 2 . • •
Change in business loans 2
Total private borrowing
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures
(inverted 3 )
39. Delinquency^, installment loans
(inverted )*" «
Ann rate percent
do
Ann rate bil dol
do
... do
do
O
_i_o
c
j
-t-6 1
i
rt
o
-t-i n ^
, L
Q
, "i L
rt
_i_r
A
, i
L
-t-1 & A
_j_o
;
+A 1
,i
L
_i_C
Q
+5.7
+8.7
+19.7
,i rt
i 1
7
"I
-4-1 1 n
+4.5
,
rt
Q
+o.y
62 0
66 4
63 6
71 o
+4.5
86 ?
1
do
•
.4-c n
_l_n
1 26
•1
O « ne
7?
O
+ 9.4
I,-]
"I I
Percent EOP
1. n
1.74
Mil. dollars
-276
+194
-44
4.88
5.67
4-33
6.08
4
4
6 / ..
.65
1 £7
1.51
1-57
1
rto
, Z
/-)
-5.0
+4.4 +11.4
(NA)
+17.9 +24.1
fMA ^
+8.3
(m)
+4.1 +10.1 +10.3
O
L rt
C/
0.88
+6.0
-35.3
+1.8
+7.0
(NA)
(NA)
+0.2
+0.1 +5.1
-4.2
+4.1
+1.1 -1.2
+1.0 +1.8
+4.6
-4.9
, -i -i / +21.5
98
85
33
* 111 0
1 j
112
nn
14
+14.4
+12.6
-0.06
+0.01
7Q
+114
+316
-177
93
+0.16
+0.12
+0.45
+0.29
+0.06
+0.08
-0.28
-0.23
-0.23
-0.15
114
+4.3
+0.09
1.47
.50
+5.0
+9.4
+6.2
+2.9
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted 3 ) 2 u)
-360
-183
-132
-167
-281
+35
5.06
5.51
5.24
4.38
6.94
5.30
4.46
5.23
6.71
5.07
4.31
5.20
6.69
5-09
4.38
5.33
6.88
5-24
4.49
5.49
7.00
5.36
4.60
+0.13
+0.19
-K). 15
+0.11
Money Market Interest Rates:
116 Corporate bond yields 2 ©
115 Treasury bond yields 2 u)
117 Municipal bond yields 2 ^
Percent « •
do
do
do
«•
£r
3.81
rtr
3-94
+0.12
+0.11
11 C
lib
115
117
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Percent Changes for Principal Indicators—Con.
Basic data 1
Percent change
OJ
Unit
of
measure
Series title
1966
1967
IstQ
2dQ
3dQ
Sept.
1968
1968
1968
1968
Oct.
1968
Nov.
1968
Sept.
to
Oct.
Oct.
1968
Nov.
1968
to
IstQ
to
2dQ
2dQ
to
3dQ
1968
1968
£
00
CD
c/o
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS--Con.
B6. Money and Credit-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment debt 4
73-5
59-8
76.9
64.8
78.4
65.8
80.2
68.0
82.4
69.2
82.4
69.2
83-4
70.2
(NA)
71.5
+1.2
+1.4
do
6.00
6.42
6.00
6.56
6.36
6.81
6.84
7.23
6.89
7-35
7.28
7.29
7.36
+0.01
Ann. rate, bil.dol. .
+3.8
+4.1
+0.8
+0.5
+2.0
+3.4
-0.8
+2.1
do
29.4
31.0
32.1
33-5
35.9
39.0
31.1
35,9
-20.3
do
1957-59=100....
Ann. rate, bil.dol. .
10.9
10.8
11.5
11.1
15.6
230
242
(NA)
(NA)
25.6
26.9
+40.5
-10.5
-10.4
do
do
-1.36
+0.2?
do
Bil.dol., EOP...
do
Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages:
*67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans ?@. . . Percent
(NA)
+1.9
+2.3
+3.3
+0.48
+0.07 +0.42
+2.7
+1.8
66
*72
+0.05 *67
+0.12 118
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Dl. Foreign Trade
500. Merchandise trade balance 2
502 Exports excluding military aid
506. Export orders, durable goods except motor
508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
216
11.8
234
11.3
249
256
35.6
229
33*8
-A. 2
+2.9
-0.3
+1.5
500
+15.4
+4.4
+7.2
502
(NA)
(NA)
+2.6
-3-3
+5.1
-4.2
+6.4
+2.7
506
508
512
+ 6.0
31.3
32.9
33.8
-3.57
-3.40
-2.75
-2.22
-0.66
+6.11
+0.16
+1.78
+2.09
+8.33
+0.7
-12.4
-8.6
-10.2
-2.8
-1.6
+7.4
6CO
do
143. 0
151.2
166.6
171.8
182.1
+3.1
+6.0
601
do
do
do
do
do
do
142.4
163.6
175.1
181.9
184.9
76.8
83-4
28.8
49.8
37.8
79-0
84-5
26.1
+3.9
+2.9
+1-3
-9.4
-8.4
43.0
79.6
94.9
33.4
44.5
44.5
119.0
107.8
120.4
108.5
121.9
109.0
31.9
D2. U.S. Balance of Payments
520 Liquidity balance basis 2
522 Official settlements basis 2
+0.82 520
-4.33 522
D3. Federal Government Activities
600. Federal surplus or deficit, national
income and product accounts 2
601. Federal receipts, national income and
602. Federal expenditures, national income
.
616
621
647
625.
Defense Dept obligations total
Defense Dept obligations procurement...
New orders defense products industries
Military contract awards in U.S
60.6
72.0
22.9
39-3
39-7
72.4
81.0
26.1
42.5
42.3
,45.6
602
264
+12.3 616
+28.0 621
-2.4 647
+3-5 625
+1.6
+0.8
38.8
42.6
48.3
(NA)
27.6
52.9
48.5
(NA)
46.7
(NA)
-28.9
+24.2
+0.4
(NA)
+13-8
122.2
109.1
122.9
109.1
123.4
109.6
+0.6
-r-0.4
+1.2
+0.6
+1.2
+0.5
781
750
-0.1
-1.2
850
100.3
(NA)
(NA)
-11.7
D4. Price Movements
781. Consumer prices, all items©
750 Wholesale prices all commodities (§>
1957-59=100.....
do
113-1 116.3
106.1
105.9
0.0
-rO.5
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing 2 . .
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing
90.5
85.3
84.9
84.8
83.6
Ratio
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, mfrs.'
durable goods industries
853 Ratio, production of business equipment
to consumer goods
854. Ratio, personal savings to disposable
personal income
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings
Percent
1.48
1.58
1.54
1.54
1.52
1.52
1.52
(NA)
0.0
(NA)
0.0
-1.3
851
3-34
3.48
3-37
3-35
3.26
3.24
3.19
(NA)
-1.5
(NA)
-0.6
-2.7
852
1957-59=100
123.0
123-3
119-7
117.8
117.1
117.7
117.4
118.1
-0.3
+0.6
-1.6
-0.6
853
Ratio
0.064
0.074
0.071
0.075
0.063
+5.6
-16.0
854
do
1957-59=100....
0.146
127.7
0.121
129.0
0.127
131.9
0.138
132.7
0.131
133-5
0.135
0.132
0.140
-2.2
+6.1
+8.7
+0.6
-5.1
+0.6
855
858
2.40
2.43
2.47
2.48
2.49
+0.4
+0.4
856
78.07
6.2
78.40
5-5
+0.7
-0.3
859
857
do
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm .
856. Real average hourly earnings, production
workers manufacturing
1957-59 dollars..
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers. .
do
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing2^. . . Percent
78.38
7-0
78.73
5.7
79-27
5.4
2.50
2.50
2.50
79.74
79.10
78.39
O.C
-0.8
0.0
-0.9
+0.4
+0.2
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated by (u), which appear to contain no seasonal movement. *Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators;
all these series, except series 54, 200, and 205, are included in composite indexes, section B7.
NA = not available.
a - anticipated.
EOP = end of period.
1
In many cases, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits or are in different units than those shown in the tables in part I . Where
I
quarterly figures for monthly series) are averages or totals of the da
2
Differences rather than percent changes are shown lor this series.
JJilierences
for
3
Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
^End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
215
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
saftita GNP in
dollars, Q (ann. rate, thous.dol.
er capita GNP in 1958 dollars,
(ann. rate, thous. doi.)
1948 49
50
51
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/DECEMBER 1968
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BCII
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Section A
Chart A2
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
220. National income,
222. Personal income, current dollars, Q
224. Disposable personal income, current
dollars, Q (ana fate, bil. dol.)
225. Disposable personal income, 1958 dollars
Q (am. raterWrfctj *-
226. Per capita disposable personal income, current dollars,
Q (am. rate, thous. dol.)
<
10
DECEMBER 1968
Section A
Chart A3
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Annual rate, billion dollars
232. Durable goods, total, current dollars, Q
233. Durable goods, total excluding automobiles,
current doffars, Q
234. Automobiles, current dollars, 0
236. Nondufabte goods, total, current dollars, Q
237. ServiWL total, current dollars, Q
DECEMBER 1968
BCII
11
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
f Chart A4~] GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Nov.) (Oct.)
. P
T
1948 49
50
51
12
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
(May) (feb.)
P T
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
DECEMBER 1968
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
FOREIGN TRADE
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (feb.)
P T
1050-5 -
55-
45"
3555-
45-
35-
•i
25-
15 J
1948 49
50
51
52
DECEMBER 1968
B€l»
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
13
Section A
Chart A6
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
" •""--" ••"^^U^--
260. Federal, state, and local governments, Q
266. State and local governments, Q
14
DECEMBER 1968
ItCII
Section A
Chart A7
FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES
ISO 140
270. Final sates, durable foods, Q
271, Change in business inventories, durable goods, 0
274. Final sates, nondurable goods, 0
275. Change In business inventories, nondurable goods, 0
DECEMBER 1968
BCII
15
Section A
Chart A8
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
Annual rate, billion dollars (current]
16
DECEMBER 1968
ltd*
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND
SAVING
(July) (Aug.)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
1948 49
P
50
51
DECEMBER 1968
lt€
52
53
54
(May) (feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
T
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
17
Section
B
Chart Bi
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Leading Indicators
Marginal Employment Adjustments
*1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing (hours)
*4. Nonagricurtural placements, afl industries (thousands!
2 Accession rate, manufacturing Tper 100 employees)
5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance (thousands-inverted scale]
ED
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees-inverted scale)
18
DECEMBER
1968
ItCII
4
Section B
Chart
Bl
' iM>
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
49. Nonagricultural Job openings unfilled [thousands]
ffl
46. Help-wanted arising (index: 1957-59=100)
48. Man-hours In nonagricultural establishments (arm. rate, bit. man-hours]
*41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (millions)
. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (millions)
itcn
DECEMBER 1968
19
Section B
Chart
CYCLICAL INDICATORS: Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Bl | EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(May) (feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
234561-
5-
Lagging Indicators
/eeks and over (percent - inverted scatej
1948 49
50
51
20
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
DECEMBER
1968
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS: Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
1948 49
ItCII
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
50
51
DECEMBER 1968
52
53
54
(May) (feb.)
P T
duly) (Apr.)
P T
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
21
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
Chart B2
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales (bil. do!.]
57. Final sales (series 200 minus series 245], Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
*54. Sales of retail stores (bil. dol.)
22
DECEMBER
1968
Section B
CYCLIC *u M^;OATARS: Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B3
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
13$.
: 1957-59=100}; MCD moving avg.-5-term)1
v,;
1! !)
s and orders, ptont and equipment (bii.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Mc-Graw Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
!!€!»
DECEMBER 1968
23
INDICATORS: Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
Chart B3 ! FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(ann. rate, millions; MCD moving avg.-5-term)
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
'this is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
24
DECEMBER 1968
IICII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS: Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(May) (feb.)
P
T
duly) (Apr.)
P
T
Lagging Indicators
90-i
80 60 50 40 30 90 -i
8070 60 -
5040 -
1948 49
50
51
52
DECEMBER 1968
ltd*
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
25
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
Chart
B4
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
entones, all industries, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
Manufacturing and trade Hiventortes
moving avg.-5-tenrij
of companies reporting higher inventories
acturers' inventories of materials and supplies
materials, percent of companies
60 days or longer
26
DECEMBER 1968
ItCII
Section B
C"
CA: Wi n> > >
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B4
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
IB"
performance, percent of companies
25. Chane in unfilled orders, durable goods industries
Lagging Indicators
jnv
ft7
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ DECEMBER 1968
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
KCII
6K
68
197C
27
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS: Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
B5
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (feb.)
P
T
160140120100-
80 -
110 -i
100 90 8070-
60 50 -
70 -s
60 5040 -
*16. Corporate |
after taxes,
30 -
18 -i
1614 12
10 J
14-i
12 10 8-
110 105 100 95-
1948 49
50
51
28
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
DECEMBER
1968
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS: Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(May) (feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
Lagging Indicators
T .-.£&;f.
1948
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ DECEMBER 1968
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BCIt
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
29
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
Chart B6
MONEY AND CREDIT
Leading Indicators
in money stflply and time deposits [ann. rate, percent
moving avg.
(ann. rate, percent; MOD moving avg.-6-term)
er installment debt (ann. rate, bil.dol.)
62
30
63
64
65
66
67
69 197C
DECEMBER 1968
Section B
Chart
CYCLICAL INDICATORS: Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
B6 ! MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) ' (Aug.)
'?
T
(May) (Feb.)
P I
2.5
1948
49
50
51
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ DECEMBER 1968
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
!*€!»
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
31
Section B
!
Chart
B6
CYCLICAL
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
! MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Oct)
P
T
1948
49
50
51
32
52
53
54
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
55
56
57
58
(May) (Feb.)
P T
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
DECEMBER
1968
ItCII
Section B
CYCLiCAL INDICATORS: Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
1948 49
50
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ DECEMBER
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
51
52
1968
53
(May) (feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July)
P
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
33
Selected Indicators by Timing
Section B
Chart B7
\ COMPOSITE INDEXES
360 -k
340320-i
Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.
1 Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators.
34
DECEMBER
1968
BCII
Section B
Chart
B8
vn.i
;\C!CA f OV
Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST
Leading Indicators
DECEMBER 1968
10 Contracts and orders, plant and
*20. New building permits, private housing units (index: 1957-59=100)
35
CYCLICAL
Section B
Chart
B8
Selected Indicators by Timing
i NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
I
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(May) (feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.!
P
T
manufacturing (index: 1957-59-100]
1948
49
50
51
36
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
DECEMBER 1968
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS: Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
1948
49
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
50
51
DECEMBER 1968
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
(May) (feb.)
P T
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
37
Selected Indicators by Timing
Section B
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Lagging Indicators
*44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent - inverted scale)
*61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Q (aim. rate, bil. dol.)
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories (bil. dol.)
*62: Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (Index: 1957-59^100)
*72. Commercial and rmJustriai loarts otrtstandmg, weekly reportmg
large commercial banks p. dtrt.)
*87.gank rates on ^orl-terWBusmeiss Toansra [percefit
38
DECEMBER 1968
ANTICIPATION:? AND INTENTIONS
Chart Cl i AGGREGATE SERIES
DECEMBER 1968
. Actual expenditures
(ann. rate, bit. dol.)
b. Second anticipations as
percent of actual (percent)
c. First anticipations as
percent of actual (percent)
iTTFTTU
60
6,
61
39
Section C
Chart Cl ! AGGREGATE SERIES—Con.
(July)
P
(Apr.)
T
(May)
P
(Feb.)
T
Manufacturers' sales, total value, Q (bil. dol.j
412. Manufacturers' inventories, total
book value, EOQ (bil. dol.)
414. Condition of manufacturers' inventories:
percent cot&idered high less percent
considered fa% 0 (percent)
1957
40
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
1971
DECEMBER
1968
KCII
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES—Con.
(July)
P
(Apr.)
I
(May)
P
(Feb.)
T
60-|
5040-
3020 10 -
0J
20-i
15.32
8
10-
5J
purchased (9 households, Q
9
8
7
6-
^ ^ ..y-y.y\.
5110 -i
ndex of consumer sentiment, Q (1st Q 1966 -100)
100-
90-
80J
1957
58
DECEMBER 1968
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
1971
41
Section C _ ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart C2 ! DIFFUSION INDEXES
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
0440* New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span]1
and trade |4-0 span)1
0444. m sales, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
lanufacturtng and trade |4-Q span)1
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
1971
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced
without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
42
DECEMBER 1968
ltd*
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND
"charTc2~| DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
(July)
P
(Apr.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
0410, Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (44 span)1
prices, mawifaimiriBg and trade (44 spar*!1
D462. Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q span)/>,,
Seing prices, wholesale trade (4-0 span]
MNk Selling prices, retai trate (4-Q span)1/
1957
58
63
64
65
,
66
67
68
69
70
1971
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced
without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1968
43
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND
Chart C2
I DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May)
(Feb.)
P
T
T
for new plant and equipment, all industries (1-Q span]
480. Change in freight carloadings (4-Q span)
millions of cars
1957
44
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
1971
DECEMBER 1968
Section
D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
FOREIGN TRADE
(July)
(Aug.)
P
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
trade balance (bil.
1948 49
50
51
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ DECEMBER 1968
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BCII
52
53
54
55
56
57
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
moving
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
1970
45
Section D
OTHER KE\ lNi«.'.AVOr' v i-
! Chart D2 i BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
U.S. balance of payments, Q
520. Liquidity balance basts
(Change in U.S. official reserve assets and change
0-
§22. Official settlements basis
(Change to U.S. official reserve assets, araf change
-2J
to foreign monetary official agencies)
Major components, except military grants of goods
and services
r-16
16-!
Excess of receipts (inflow)
Excess of payments (outflow)
--12
12-
8-'
§25. Net capital movements, liquidity balance
;'(Outftow (-) left scale)
m
'250. Balance on goods and services
(surplus !>} rignt scate)
L-
4-
0-1
0
r-16
527. Net capital movements,
jfriudl settlements huh?
—12
12-
- -8
8Official settlements balance-series
- _4
4-
L
0J
0
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
NOTE: Annual totals used prior to 1960 except for series 520. J/Including unilateral transfers, and errors and omissions.
46
DECEMBER
1968
IICII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
40 n
{Major components, except military grants of goods
and services-continued
36 -
32 -
28 -
530. Liquid liabilities to al foreigners, outstanding at Hid of period
24 -
20 -
16 -
12 /
532. Liqukl and certain nonlkHJid liabilities to
foreign official agencies, outstandiig it end of period
8 -
4 -
0
J
534, U.S. official r«$srvs assets-secret position at end of perW
•\
20 -
16 -
12 J
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
NOTE: Annual totals used prior to 1960.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ DECEMBER
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
ItCII
1968
47
Section D
Chart
D2
OTHER KEY
!
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
56 i
Goods and services movements, except transfers under
|
military grants
52 -
48Excess of receipts
Excess of pymeirts
44-
40 -
36-
32 J
36 T
32 -
28 -
24 -
20 -
16 -
12 -
Investment income, military sates
and expenditures, and otfief services-
4J
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
NOTE: Annual totals used prior to 1960.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
48
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
KCII
DECEMBER 1968
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Investment income, military sales and expenditures
and other services
HI Excess of payments (outflow)
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad
4 -J
§43, Income on foreign investments in the U.S.
a -i
Travel545. Payments oy U.S. travelers abroad
r-T^t^FT«t^
,
^.^^^o^^
l^jr^^^^^%c
.**r **. ^rri«y^;q^^^ ^5^^^
fifl
^'
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the B.S.
Military sales and expenditures-
546. Military sales to foreigners
Transportation and other services-
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
82
63
64
65
66
67
88
69 1970
NOTE: Annual totals used prior to 1960.
licit
DECEMBER 1968
49
Section D
OTHER KEY
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Capital movements, including errors and omissions
£223 Excess of receipts (inflow)
HH Excess of payments (outflow)
Direct investments-
4 -
0
J
0
J
560. Foreign Investments in the U.S.
565. U.S. purchases of foreip securities
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
570. Government grants and capital transactions, net
0-1
-4 -I
4i
575. Banking and other capita! transactions, net
1
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
_4
1970
NOTE: Annual totals used prior to 1960.
50
DECEMBER
1968
KCII
Section D
r
|
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D3
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
I
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
or deficit, national income ami product
601. Federal receipts, national income and product accounts, Q (ann. rate,
602. Federal expenditures, national income and product accounts, Q (ann. rate, bil.
KCII
DECEMBER 1968
51
Section D
OTHER KEY
Chart Ds
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (feb.)
P
T
10090807060 -
621. Weitse Department obligations, procurement —t—~-f*
m dot.; MCD moving avg. 6-term)
lfa| $1; MCD moving avg. 6-term)
625. Military contract awards in U.S.
53
52
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
j
66
67
r
68
69 1970
DECEMBER 1968
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
PRICE MOVEMENTS
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
1948 49
50
51
DECEMBER 1968
ItCII
52
(Aug.)
T
53
54
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
58
69 1970
53
Section D
Chart D4
! PRICE MOVEMENTS—Con.
Juiy, ^',
p
i
'May,- 'Feb.
P
T
58. Manufactured goods
ffl
54
DECEMBER
1968
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart El
ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
780-
760 740 720 700 680 -
Gross National Product in 1958 dollars
[aim rate, bil.
rinl)
__
660
640 820 800 ™
206. Potential
580 560 -
460
440
420 •
400 -
380
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
1970
J/Trend line of 3 vz percent per year through middle of 1955 from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3 3/4 percent from 4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, and 4 percent thereafter.
DECEMBER
1968
55
A^AIYTJCAL ^EASU^f :*
Chart E2
! ANALYTICAL RATIOS
(May) (feb.)
P
T
, output to capacity, manufacturing, Q (percent)
inventors to sales, manufacturing and trade
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods industries
-j
56
b5
56
62
63
64
65
S6
87
6S
69
DECEMBER
1970
1968
ItCII
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
ANALYTICAL RATIOS—Con.
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
P I
P
T
of persons unemployed
hourly earnings, production workers,
earnings, nonagricultural
workers (1957-59 dollars]
i948 49
50
51
52
DECEMBER 1968
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
;ilt
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
88
69 1970
57
Section E
ANALYTICAL
Chart E3 | DIFFUSION INDEXES
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (feb.)
P
T
industries (9-mo. span— , 1-mo. span----)
06. (tew orders, durable goods industri
industries 9-mo. span—. 1-mo. span—4
D11 New|
-
y Approved capital appropriations - f17 industries, NICB (3-Q span-,,
?
"''
034. Profits, FHCB of NY
profits - about 1,000 manufacturing corporations (1-0 span)
019. Stock prices, 500 common stocks - 77 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—-)
023. industrial materials prices - 13 industrial materials (9-mo
05. Initial claims, State unemployment insurance - 47 areas (percent declining; 9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-—)
1948
58
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
DECEMBER 1968
ItCIt
Section E
E3
ANALYTICAL
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
NflV.i
(Oct.!
P
T
DECEMBER 1968
•jn!v-
Aug.
My, /Apr.;
?
T
May: fab.-
P
i
I Percent rising I
D41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls - 30 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—-)
D47. Industrial production - 24 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—)
r •
058. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods - 22 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-—)
D54. Sales of retail stores - 23 types of stores (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-
m
59
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Chart Fi ! CONSUMER PRICES
•948 49
50
51
60
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
DECEMBER
1970
1968
BCII
Section F
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
1948 49
BCII
50
5.1 52
DECEMBER 1968
53
54
55
56
5?
58
58
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
61
Section F
Chart
62
F3
STOCK PRICES
DECEMBER 1968
KCII
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
200. Current dollars
205. Constant (1958)
dollars
210. Implicit price
deflator
215. Per capita GNP,
current dollars
217. Per capita GNP,
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Year
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Index: 1958=100)
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
and
quarter
1966
728.4
740.4
753.3
768.2
648.6
653.3
659.5
112.3
113.3
114.2
115.2
3,715
3,765
3,820
3,883
3,308
3,323
3,344
3,372
772.2
780.2
795.3
665.7
669.2
675.6
116.0
116.6
117.7
118.9
3,893
3,924
3,988
4,055
3,356
3,365
3,388
3,409
831.2
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
692.7
703.4
120.0
121.2
122.3
4,147
3,456
4,245
4,323
3,536
667.1
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
811.0
681.8
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
852.9
871.0
712.3
3,501
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
Year
and
220. National income
in current dollars
222. Personal income
in current dollars
quarter
Disposable personal income
224. Current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann/rate,
bil. dol.)
225. Constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
226. Per capita,
current dollars
(Ann. rate, dollars)
227. Per capita,
constant (19 58)
dollars
(Ann. rate, dollars)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
604.0
570.4
580.3
454.1
454.6
626.7
637.3
592.1
500.0
505.5
2,550
615.1
604.5
525.4
466.6
2,571
2,613
638.6
614.8
621.6
534.2
645.1
541.5
471.9
656.9
670.9
633.7
645.2
662.7
515.4
461.4
2,316
2,312
2,656
2,340
2,359
550.0
559.6
476.3
479.5
483.7
2,693
2,723
2,758
2,798
2,379
2,395
2,404
574.4
586.3
592.7
491.8
497.1
499.2
2,866
2,918
2,942
2,454
2,474
2,478
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
2,418
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .
688.1
705.4
r722.5
678.1
694.3
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
ltd*
DECEMBER 1968
63
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
230. Total in
current dollars
231. Total in
constant (19 58)
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
Year
and
quarter
232. Durable goods, 233. Durable goods, 234. Automobiles
total in current
in current dollars
total except autos,
dollars
in current dollars
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
237. Services in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
457.8
461.1
469.3
473.7
415.7
414.8
420.0
420.6
71.6
68.2
71.0
71.1
44.7
44.2
45.8
45.8
26.9
24.0
25.2
25.3
202.8
206.3
208.3
209.3
183.4
186.7
190.0
193.3
480.9
490.3
495.5
502.2
424.8
431.2
431.8
434.1
69.8
73.4
73.1
74.2
46.7
47.6
47.7
48.9
23.1
25.8
25.4
25.3
212.9
215.3
216.4
218.4
198.2
201.6
205.9
209.6
519.4
527.9
541.1
444.9
447.5
455.7
79.0
81.0
85.1
50.6
52.0
53.5
28.4
29.0
31.6
226.5
228.2
232.7
213.9
218.7
223.4
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
240. Total
241. Nonresidential
fixed investment
242. Nonresidential
structures
243. Producers'
durable equipment
244. Residential
structures
245. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Year
and
quarter
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
116.8
121.0
119.9
125.7
78.6
79.8
82.6
84.2
28.6
28.1
28.9
28.2
50.0
51.7
53.7
55.9
27.3
25.8
24.4
21.7
+10.9
+15.4
+12.8
+19.8
113.0
107.6
114.7
121.8
83.5
82.7
83.3
85.0
29.0
27.2
27.7
27.7
54.5
55.5
55.6
57.3
21.1
22.7
26.0
28.5
+8.4
+2.3
+5.3
+8.3
119.7
127.3
127.1
88.6
87.0
90.1
29.6
28.5
28.8
59.0
58.5
61.3
29.1
29.5
29.5
+2.1
+10.8
+7.5
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
64
DECEMBER
1968
!!€!»
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Qj FOREIGN TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS
H
GOVERNMENT P U R C H A S E S OF GOODS AND S E R V I C E S
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
250. Net exports
of goods and
services
252. Exports
253. Imports
260. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Year
and
quarter
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
bil. dol.)
264. National
defense
266. State and
local
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
bil. dol.)
bil. dol.)
262.
Federal
1966
+6.0
+5.2
+4.5
+4.5
42.1
42.6
43.6
44.2
36.1
37.3
39.1
39.7
147.8
153.1
159.5
164.3
72.5
75.6
79.9
81.5
55.3
58.6
63.0
65.4
75.3
77.4
79.7
82.7
+5.2
+5.1
+5.4
+3.4
45.5
45.5
46.1
46.0
40.3
40.4
40.6
42.6
173.1
177.3
179.6
183-5
87.4
90.0
91.3
93.5
70.0
72.1
72.9
74.6
85.8
87.2
88.4
90.0
+1.5
+2.0
+3.3
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
47.5
49.9
52.6
46.0
47.9
49.4
190.5
195.7
199.6
97.1
100.0
101.2
76.8
79.0
79.6
93.4
95.6
98.4
1967
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
First quarter
Second Quarter- ....
Third quarter . ...
Foufth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
Q FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
Durable goods
271. Change in
business inventories
274. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
280. Compensation
of employees
Nondurable goods
270. Final sales
H
275. Change in
business
inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
282. Proprietors'
income
284. Rental income
of persons
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
bil. dol.)
bil. dol.)
1966
First quarter .
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
217.3
420.6
430.8
225.1
+3.3
+5.5
+2.4
+6.3
+3.3
+0.6
+3.8
+4.2
230.4
234.7
236.2
236.6
+5.0
+1.7
+1.6
+4.1
456.7
+1.5
+6.2
+4.9
246.1
+0.6
+4.6
+2.5
496.8
+7.6
+9.9
143.3
142.2
147.3
150.2
+10.5
+13.6
151.1
157.1
157.3
159.9
166.7
169.1
175.1
220.4
223.7
441.4
449.7
61.5
6o.s
60.2
60.2
19.5
19.7
19.9
20.0
60.1
60.5
61.2
61.1
20.1
20.2
20.4
20.5
61.8
62.6
63.4
20.7
20.9
21.0
1967
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
461.8
471.5
482.7
1968
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
248.5
254.4
507.1
519.7
1969
First quarter. . .
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
ItCII
DECEMBER 1968
65
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
E
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS- Con.
Qj SAVING IN CURRENT DOLLARS
1966
First Quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1967
286. Corporate
profits and
inventory valuation adjustment
288. Net interest
290. Gross saving
292. Personal
saving
294. Undistributed
corporate profits
plus inventory valuation adjustment
296. Capital consumption
allowances
298. Government
surplus or deficit
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Year
and
quarter
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
82.7
83.4
84.2
85.3
19.8
20.4
21.1
22.0
121.4
127.1
126.0
130.7
29.5
31.4
32.9
38.1
26.5
26.9
27.2
29.4
62.3
63.5
64.6
65.9
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
79.5
79.6
80.2
82.3
22.2
22.9
23.6
24.3
118.0
113.0
120.1
126.9
39.7
37.0
40.5
43.4
24.2
23.4
23.5
24.8
67.1
68.4
70.0
71.2
-12.9
-15.9
-14.0
-12.5
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
83.8
89.2
25.0
25.8
26.7
123-3
130.1
r!32.9
40.8
44.0
37.1
20.4
23.6
72.3
73.7
74.9
-10.3
-11.3
r-4.1
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
66
r91.6
r25.0
DECEMBER
+3.0
+5.3
+1.2
-2.6
1968
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
H EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
I
TIMING CLASS ....
LEADING INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments
Minor Economic
Process
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Job Vacancies
*1. Average workweek of production
workers, manufacturing1
*4. Nonagri cultural
placements, all
industries1
2. Accession rate,
manufacturing1
5. Average weekly
initial claims for
unemployment
insurance, State
programs 2
(Hours)
Year
and
month
(Thous.)
(Per 100 employees)
(Thous.)
1967
January
February
March
41 0
40.3
40.4
534
519
497
4 6
20?
242
256
4 3
4 1
3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing1
(Per 100 employees)
49. Nonagri cultural
job openings unfilled1
46. Index of helpwanted advertising
in newspapers
(Thous.)
(1957-59=100)
1 L
oqo
i5
17
Q7C
i on
?62
184
qcq
1 &Q
.Loy
April .
May
June
40 5
40.5
40.4
474
448
487
4 2
4 6
4.5
234
225
14
14
14
351
351
17A.
July
August
September
40.5
40.6
40.9
484
486
480
4.4
4,4
4.4
261
215
209
14
13
13
344
350
373
169
180
1#5
October
November
December
40.7
40.7
40.7
474
476
479
4-5
4-5
4.4
209
201
198
12
12
12
345
187
190
January
February
March
40.2
40.8
40.7
498
479
494
4.5
4.5
4.1
214
199
188
1.4
1.4
1.2
356
360
368
184
193
202
April
May
June
40 1
40.9
40.9
466
W\
504
4 7
4.6
4.5
190
193
190
1 1
1.3
1.1
382
396
388
188
187
189
I
^14
201
186
o/.rt.
368
365
388
185
198
219
263
360
352
186
1968
....
July
August
September
A.O Q
512
4-O
40.7
1 C^O
482
4-5
41.1
480
October
November
December
41 0
465
p452
r>LC)
A
L
0-1 1
A. 7
r>A. 7
(NA)
fc>
178
183
1 r-\
1.3
1.2
pi 1
(NA)
376
p370
r213
Kr^ r>222
1969
January
February
March
. ...
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
. .
NOTE' Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
,
indicated by E>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,, 5,, 14,, 39,, 40,, 43,, 44,, 45 rr and 93), current low values are indicated by
[B>> Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA" f not available.
1
Series that reached their high values prior to 1 6 are as follows: Series 1, high value ( 1 6 reached in Feb. 1966; Series
97
4.)
4, high value ( 0 ) in Feb. 1 6 ; Series 2, high value ( . ) in Mar. 1 6 ; Series 3, high value ( . ) in Oct. 1 6 ; Series 4 ,
60,
96
52,
96
10,
96
9
2
high value ( 3 ) in Sept. 1 6 .
48,
96
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
ItO
DECEMBER 1968
67
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Rl EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Con.
TIMING CLASS ....
LAGGING
INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
Comprehensive Employment
48. Man-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments
42. Persons
engaged in
nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey
(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)
*41. Number of
employees on
nonagricultural
payrolls,
establishment
survey
(Thous.)
1967
January
February
. .
March
131.56
131.07
131.00
65,524
65,646
65,672
70,104
70,187
69,964
3.7
3.7
3.7
2.3
2.4
April .
May .
June
130.67
130 . 95
131.39
65,619
65,677
65,821
70,096
69,822
70,430
July
August
September
131.52
132.22
132.40
65,920
66,136
66,123
October
November
December
132 . 23
133.72
133.23
January
February
March
April
May
June
Year
and
month
Long-Duration
Unemployment
Comprehensive Unemployment
(Thous.)
*43. Unemployment rate, total
(Percent)
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs1
(Percent)
40. Unemployment rate,
married males
(Percent)
*44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15
weeks and over
(Percent)
2.6
1.7
1.7
1.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
3.7
3.9
3.9
2.6
2.7
2.6
1.9
1.9
1.9
0.6
0.6
0.6
70,631
70,708
70,941
3.9
3.8
4.1
2.8
2.6
2.4
1.8
1.9
1.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
66,286
66,778
67,060
71,017
71,166
71,361
4.3
3.8
3.7
2.3
2.3
2.2
1.9
1.7
1.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
132.16
134.38
133.80
67,058
67,600
67,656
71,164
71,604
71,788
3.5
3.7
3.6
2.3
2.3
2.2
1.6
1.7
1.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
134.01
134.68
135.46
67,755
67,792
68,039
71,656
71,936
72,197
3.5
3.5
3.8
2.1
2.2
2.2
E> 1.5
1.6
1.7
0.5
0.5
0.5
July
August
September
135.89
136.26
rl36.30
68,170
68,314
r68,382
72,202
72,196
72,355
3.7
3.5
3.6
2.3
2.3
2.1
1.6
1.6
1.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
October
November
December
IiT->. r!36.30
p!35.91
r68, 640
|£>p68,803
72,471
g> 72,713
3.6
IH^> •"
^^ 3-3
2.0
(H> 2.0
1.7
1.6
[H>0.4
UJ-^
...
1968
0.5
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September . . .
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14,39, 40, 43, 44, 45 f and 93)r current low values are indicated by
g>>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
DECEMBER 1968
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
g PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION AND TRADE
|
TIMING CLASS ....
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
Comprehensive Production
*200. Gross na- *205. Gross national product
tional product
in current dolin 1958 dollars
lars
Year
and
month
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1967
January
February
March
772.2
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Comprehensive Income
*47. Index of
industrial production
(1957-59=100)
*52. Personal
income
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
53. Wages and
salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
*56. Manufacturing and trade
sales
(Mil.dol.)
158.3
156.7
156.6
612 l
614 6
617.6
162 4
161 4
161 7
87 9ft7
87 ^6*5
156.7
155.6
155.7
665.7
618.6
620.6
625.8
161.2
161.2
162.2
57. Final sales
(series 200
minus series
245)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
*54. Sales of
retail stores
(Mil.dol.)
76^ ft
pc Aft7
pc A7O
2S 7?Q
87,684
87 998
89 292
yyft o
2*5 897
67 664
April
May
June
780.2
July
August
September
795-3
675-6
156.4
158.3
156.8
629.8
634.2
637.0
163.2
164.9
165.2
88,679
90,135
89,987
789.9
26 444
26,466
26,773
October
November
December
811.0
681.8
157-2
159.8
162.1
638.0
644.9
652.6
165.0
168.2
170.2
89,043
90,759
91,970
802.7
26,100
26,385
26,368
January
February
March
831 2
Aop 7
1 7D 0
-170 £
QO
April
May
June.
acp O
669.2
25 918
26 544
1968
70?
l6l 2
. .
. . . ltT--» 871 0
..
October
November
December
Q
A7P A
T7A.
Aft"}. (7
DO.)
1 77 1
-Lf f .-L
AftQ 9
AQ/I i
17ft
-rl A^ 7
ITT
no rnn
yjtVft
1 7/i n
A7ft 9
rl66 0
rl64 6
rl65 1
R?^^. 712 1
[n^-> ( j-^o
AA'i n
A7O n
162 5
164 2
rl65 8
Zi
...
July
August
September
AC/,
162 o
163 o
nl A7 L
W
O
Ql
yQft
^
180 6
m-~-—P-10^ • o
. ni ftp ft
( .
H>
T»1
&) O "I
-pOQ
OQA
ftl Q
0*7 A"7C
^r ,0f5
Qrt
-i oo
ort
l c-i
28,132
^0,451
orv cjno
/ QA
rQ7 ^AO
on en o
.£ ^ , pl*C
Pft 1 /
<iCS,l/4.i?C
Q7 , ZZI
7 (
J?Ur
1 77 ft
•r7O? 9
fTr--~^ r»707 'u
|H^>P'U' 0
oA OQA
^0,7J>0
ft9O 1
1 qA
oA ,ny Q
70 U4j5
/
AQO 7
CJOT
7 3 , O^-L
%Al 9
fir->». 00,5 .^p
|rt^-> rtA^
1
PQ HQ ?
^7,Uj)/'
r»Pft
ftAQ
r^o, 71 Q
/'ijj
yPft
^^
r MA ^
Uj^-^r\PQ
1/ /
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
. . .
NOTE' Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by E>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45 f and 93)r current low values are indicated by
(tD> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). TheV indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA H , not available.
BCII
DECEMBER 1968
69
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
B FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
i
^^^
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
LEADING INDICATORS
Formation of Business
Enterorises
*12. Index of net
business formation
Year
and
month
(1957-59-100)
1967
January
February
March
102.2
103 2
103 3
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
13. Number of new *6. Value of
business incorpora- manufacturers'
new orders,
tions
durable goods
industries
(Number)
(1957-59=100)
*10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and equipment
(Bil.dol.)
16,703
23 94
126
O/, T C
n ;.o
A T3
O. _LJ
16 244
±*ij
2? 5/L
1LQ
1?ft
24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders, machinery and
equipment industries
(Bil.dol.)
6 16
6 on
25 ?0
25 77
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations 2
(Bil.dol.)
5 Q2
15 Q87
April
May
June
105 o
108 1
16 760
17 627
17 799
July
August
September
108 4
110 7
110.3
16 300
17 674
1 , 1
81 8
October
November
December
110.6
112.7
113.8
18 000
18,403
18,168
113.5
114.5
113.6
April
May .
June .
July
August
September
103 7
(Bil.dol.)
8. Index of
construction
contracts, total
value 1
24 04
164
£ n?
6 40
2L Q2
-\I.Q
6
25 88
25.18
l&z,
A J(
0. £7
1 5/L
5
5
5
• no
(<•
• no
(*~
m
.(Jf
5.02
40/3.
.78
5 .08
n£
5 .uy
no
Qd
5 OD
01
5.38
5.47
C
rto
2 . 0<£
5.35
168
6.43
25 68
25 85
28 06
168
5 7/,
166
6 66
6 42
6 A/3
»2T
5 O-L
or»
5 •Jf
5 ou
en
17,223
18,014
17,974
26 84
26.81
28.00
15Q
156
176
6 50
6 51
6 67
c en
1n
5 • 4r
5 Oo
113-9
115.1
116.2
18,659
18,796
19,197
27.37
27.17
26.70
146
172
160
6.20
6.62
7.20
5*69
119.1
119.7
122.1
19,530
20,053
21,237
r26.92
r27-33
r28.38
187
192
183
6.96
7.85
7.20
p6.23
B> 125.2
g> 21,721
E> r30.28
P29.58
[H>200
183
Iu^>r8.45
1P
^P7.44
1968
January
February
March
. .
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
(NA)
(NA)
0£>
C ort
P OC5
5 /,Q
5 Zi5
5 97
5 71
6.03
5.92
fD-->r6.55
0>
p6.26
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE- Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by [fD>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93)r current low values are indicated by
|j£>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
-"•This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Informa2
tion Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.
This series reached its high value ( . 9 in 2d quarter 1 6 .
66)
96
70
DECEMBER 1968
BCII
CYCLICAL IIMDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
0 FIXED CAPITAL INVESTS ENT-Con.
TIMING CLASS ....
LEADING INDICATORS
Year
and
month
LAGGING INDICATORS
New Investment Commitments
Minor Economic
Process
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Backlog of Investment Commitments
Investment Expenditures
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and industrial
buildings i
7. New private
nonfarm housing
units starteds
*29. Index of new
private housing
units authorized by
local building
permits 2
96. Manufacturers'
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing 2
(1957-59=100)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Mil. sq. ft. floor
space)
(Ann. rate, thous.)
January
February
March
49.09
1 079
83 1
77 ^6
57 ftA.
1 T32
7ft Q
77
(Y)
^6
i 067
ft!
Q
t~iL
r\\
April
1 099
90 7
7C
££>
CO
1 214
on i
07 0
nf)
June
58.2?
^L 72
62 30
July
August
September
*>6 72
61 66
60 45
l ?^6
1 381
1 415
96 4
99 A.
102 3
106 9
102.2
116 7
78 82
64.08
1 478
1,567
1 235
64.51
61.39
66.61
1,430
1,499
1,479
97.2
120.0
121.4
80.49
80.59
April .
May
June
47.09
66.96
66.35
1,562
1,345
1,348
113.7
106.9
107.0
82.24
July
August
September
71.65
66.15
61.59
1,507
1,496
1,570
107.7
107.8
116.4
79.68
1,533
pl, 649
rl!5.2
pll6.2
r81.89
(D^^ p82.57
*61. Business
expenditures on
new plant and
equipment, total
69. Machinery and
equipment sales
and business construction expenditures
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1967
May
October
November
December
~[L
56.42
63.17
1
25/L
76 7^
/.-i
£c
PO 1 0
7A - .A1?
f A Of
60 90
77 ftP
rj l
QQ
<k>7<ry/L
ort
77 QO
( ( • 7V
7ft *\ft
on pc;
...
77 9/L
9A.
79 13
80 58
Qf\
ro.yu
C*2
r5o;>
•7C
AT c.n
77 11
77
rjL
rjL
20 42
62 70
20 41
L)
7A 79
77 9?
7Q QA
1968
January
February
March
October
November
December
fc>79.63
70.23
81.75
80 77
jfp>r64.75
81 59
81.90
80.97
r62 . 65
20.60
80.32
80.86
80 09
80.18
80.57
80.79
80 59
20.48
63.45
J V
p21.06
KT^> F*- -- "~'
jn^>.
82.40
r85.08
|fi^>T)85.70
m — p<->-^ • r Y
ra67 . 25
(NA)
1969
January
February
March
a?1.15
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by E>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93)r current low values are indicated by
[£>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a" r anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Informa2
tion Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.
Series that reached their high values prior to 1 6 are as follows: Series 7,
97
high value ( , 3 ) reached in Oct. 1963; Series 29, high value ( 2 . ) in Feb. 1 6 .
183
146,
94
ItO
DECEMBER 1968
71
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q[ INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
LEADING INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
245. Change in
bus. inventories after valuation adjustment, all indus.1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Year
and
month
1967
January
February
March
*31. Change in
book value of
mfg. and trade
inventories,
total1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventory investment and Purchasing
TIMING CLASS ....
Inventories
37. Purchased
materials, companies reporting higher
inventories1
(Percent
reporting)
20. Change in
book value of
mfrs.' inventories of mtls.
and supplies1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
26. Production
materials, companies reporting
commitments 60
days or longer®1
(Percent
reporting)
32. Vendor
25. Change in
performance, unfilled orders,
companies re- durable goods
porting slower industries1
deliveries®1
(Percent
reporting)
(Bil. dol.)
*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value
65. Manufacturers' inventories of
finished goods,
book value
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
+8.4
+12.8
+5.7
+5.0
48
45
46
+2.6
+0.4
+0.6
72
67
68
48
51
38
-0.63
-0.34
-0.98
138.25
138.73
139.15
25-43
25.68
25.82
April . .
May
June
+2.3
+6.4
+2.9
-0.7
37
40
43
-1.6
-0.4
-0.9
67
66
68
39
36
38
-0.17
+0.65
+0.79
139.68
139.92
139-87
26.22
26.41
26.36
July
August
September
+ '$.3
+5.6
+6.7
+4.2
40
42
44
+1.4
+0.2
-2.2
61
66
61
41
43
kk
+0.50
+0.12
+0.01
140.34
140.90
141.25
26.43
26.61
26.64
October
November
December
+S.3
+2.6
+13.1
+14.6
4
?
46
54
+0.1
+0.6
+0.3
62
f3
64
50
51
48
+0.88
+0.31
+1.45
141.46
142.55
143.77
26.63
26.70
26.81
+2.{
+4.0
+8.6
+4.0
55
53
52
-0.5
+1.2
+0.9
64
61
64
50
55
54
-0.09
+0.10
+1.16
144. H
144.82
145.15
26.97
27.09
27.21
+10.8
+16.0
+15-9
+8.6
51
55
59
+4.0
+4.7
+1.7
68
64
67
52
52
52
+0.48
-0.34
-0.93
146.49
147.81
148.52
27.35
27.59
27.64
+7-5
+6.5
+10.3
r+9.6
59
55
40
+3-5
+2.0
+0.9
68
66
60
56
46
46
-1.29
+0.49
+0.40
149.06
149-92
1*150.72
27.79
28.15
28.44
p+16.8
(NA)
42
44
+1.9
(NA)
62
60
g
r+1.32
p+0.6?
***($
B>28.64
(NA)
1968
January .
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
.. .
1969
January
February
March
. .
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
...
....
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by [FD>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14, 39, 40,43, 44, 45 r and 93), current low values are indicated by
[(£:> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "shortlist" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
•""Series that reached their high values prior to 1967 are as follows: Series 24-5, high value (+19.8) reached in 4-th quarter 1966;
Series 31, high value (+20.0), in June 1966; Series 37, high value (63), in Nov. 196^; Series 20, high value (+5.7), in Aug. 1966;
Series 26, high value (75), in Oct. 1966; Series 32, high value ( 6 , in Mar. 1966; Series 25, high value (+1.82), in Sept. 1966.
8)
72
DECEMBER 1968
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
JU PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
^nSjtyPricS
Stock Prices
Profits and Profit Margins
*23. Indexof *19. Index of *16. Corpoindustrial
stock prices, rate profits
materials
500 common after taxes1
1
prices®
stocks©
1957-59=100) (1941-43=10)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
22. Ratio of
profits to
income originating, corporate, all
indus.
(Percent)
18. Profits
(before
taxes) per
dollar of
sales, all
mfg. corp.1
(Cents)
*17. Ratio,
price to unit
labor cost
index, mfg.1
LAGGING INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices
LEADING INDICATORS
Unit Labor Costs
68. Labor
cost (cur.
dol.)perunit
of gross prod.
(1958 dol.),
nonfin. corp.
(Dollars)
(1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100)
55. Index of
wholesale
prices, indus.
commod. @
58. Index of
wholesale
prices, mfd.
goods©
*62. Indexof
labor cost
per unit of
output, mfg.
(1957-59=100)
1967
January
February
March
106.8
105.2
102 5
84.45
87 36
89 42
47 1
12 1
Apri!
May
June
100.1
99 6
99 8
90.96
92 59
91 A3
47 3
12 1
July
August
September
98.3
98.1
97.8
93.01
94.49
95.8!
47.6
October
November
December
97-7
99.1
100.1
95.66
92.66
95-30
50.3
12.2
99.8
99-5
100.1
95-04
90.75
89.09
49.1
Oft Q
70.J5
oA T
90.1
QC A
75-0
97-87
50.7
102 1
101 9
101 2
105 8
106 0
106 0
106 4
106 4
106 3
o 701
101 4
100 8
100 3
106 0
106 0
106 o
106 2
106 3
106 6
o 701
J-UpO
100 3
100 2
99 6
106 0
106 3
106 5
106 8
106 8
107 1
0 708
106 5
106 6
8.4
100.0
100.2
100.9
106 8
107 1
107 4
107 1
107.3
107 6
0 715
107 1
107 1
106 6
11.7
8.6
99.8
99.7
100.0
107.8
108.3
108.6
108.1
108.7
108.9
0.721
108.3
109.0
108.9
11.7
8.8
100.0
99.5
108.8
108.6
108.8
109.1
109.1
109-4
0.721
109.1
109.7
^109 . 6
1 r\ft ft
i no ( "7
-luy.
i no z
-Luy. p
109.9
iir*^>n (^
ynu-^u. 79 ^
11.8
8 5
8 2
8 1
104 2
i n/, /,
105 o
1 OA 7
T r)c c
i n£ ^
107 5
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
% A
Q/L
£
oA T
70.1
October
November
December
3
97 5
100 3
100 8
QC (jn
7?.O (
r99.8
100 . 53
100 30
Qrt
-i -i
70.11
-i f\~\
o /
1U1.J4
1 rn 7&
inc /.n
Jf>106 66
r«QQ
y.r-1
o
r»1 1 ^
8
C>
ft
ryoo
T»Qft n
T»Qft
^
r*Qft n
T-lQft
ft
-| f)ft Q
109.2
-i C\Q
r»
109.7
|?J>109 . 9
—iino fj
piuy.s
r»n no . 7
rioy Q
T*T n
y
r! . 1
l2
110.0
lk>rl!2 . 3
[5>110.3
pl . 6
il
n -i -i
/
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
Julv
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE' Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by E>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45 t and 93), current low values are indicated by
[B^> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 19-66 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and."NA", not available.
1
Series that reached their high values prior to 1 6 are as follows: Series 23, high value (123.5) reached in Mar. 1966;
9 7
Series 16, high value ( 1 6 , in 3d quarter 1 6 ; Series 22, high value ( 3 9 , in 1st quarter 1 6 ; Series 18, high value ( . )
5.)
9 6
1.)
9 6
98,
3
in 1st quarter 1 6 ; Series 17, high value ( 0 . ) in July 1 6 . 2Average for December 17, 18, and 19.
9 6
152,
96
Average for
December 17, 19, and 20.
DECEMBER 1968
'»
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Process and Cyclical Timing
U MONEY AND CREDIT
J
LEADING INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Flows of Money and Credit
98. Change in
money supply
and time
deposits
Year
and
month
(Ann. rate,
percent)
85. Change in
U.S. money
supply
(Ann. rate,
percent)
33. Net change in
mortgage debt
held by fin. inst.
and life insurance companies1
* 113. Net change
in consumer
installment
debt
(Ann. rate,
bil. do!.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Credit Difficulties
110. Total pri112. Change in
business loans1 vate borrowing
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
14. Current liabilities of business failures 1
39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over, total
installment loans
(Mil. dol.)
(Percent)
1967
January
February
March
+10 20
IH^> +14.52
+13 . 56
-o 72
+10.56
+9.72
+9 40
+11 78
+11.47
+3 ?6
+2 59
+3.17
+7 04
+0 86
+6 83
60 804
118 61
111 23
108 87
+11.67
+16 . 01
+18.00
+2 56
+2.32
+3.50
+9 25
+1 63
+8 09
61 864
110 80
9? 00
87 20
A£ n;,;,
April
May
June
+5.28
+13.68
+14.28
-4.80
f£> +13.20
+11.04
July
August
September
+13 . 80
+11.88
+8.04
+12 . 24
+7.44
+1.32
+16 84
+22 88
+20 78
+2 70
+4 13
+3 41
+16 09
-9 19
October
November
December
+7.68
+7.32
+6.00
+7.32
+5.28
+2.04
r+20.88
+22.07
+19.87
+3.73
+5.02
+4.60
+5 36
+2 66
+8 39
January
February . . .
March
+5.28
+4.92
+7.20
+6.60
+2.64
+4.56
+18.49
+19.20
+17.96
+4 78
+6.79
+6.79
+12 53
April
May .
June
+4.20
+7.44
+6.12
+5.88
+11.76
+8.40
+19 . 00
+22.96
+17.14
+6.50
+7.32
+7.58
+19.64
+2.23
+6.41
71,044
July
August
September
+13.44
+13.32
+6.24
+12.84
+5.76
-5.04
+18.28
+19.31
+17.90
+8.18
+10.24
+8.27
+13.81
-4.33
+4.13
jH>p86,276
l"*"^
October
November
December
r 1 . 6
+ 11
p+12.96
r+4.44
p+11.40
lfi>p+24.10
^ (NA)
RO+11.18
^ (NA)
r+10.13
p+10.26
1 #9
i on
1 70
74. #c
Q1
i A*;
J-.Op
"I 0
91 ?9
2 15
95 £1
76 936
1 66
gfC CC
192 56
1 1L
116 62
81 06
80 46
1 51
1968
-2 28
+4.07
63 600
80 43
93 95
1 59
62.32
1 57
96 96
1.56
54.58
56.72
76.92
fi>
1.47
73.13
1969
January
February
March
April
Mav
June
. .
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by E>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
!$;> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The"r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1
Series that reached their high values prior to 1 6 are as follows: Series 1 2
9 7
1 , high value ( 2 . 1 , in July 1966;
+11)
Series 14, high value ( 2 8 ) in Aug. 1963.
5.6,
74
DECEMBER 1968
IICII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
0 MONEY AND CREDIT-Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Bank
Reserves
Minor Economic
Process
^oney Market lnterest
93. Free .
reserves® 1
Year
and
month
. . n j- _ no, t
Outstanding Debt
(Percent)
(Percent)
Interest Rates on Business
Loans and Mortgages
n
es
114. Treasury 116. Corporate 115 Treasury 117. Municipal 66. Consumer
bill rate©
bond yields© bond yields© bond yields© installment
debt
(Percent)
(Mil. dol.)
Rat
LAGGING INDICATORS
(Percent)
(Mil. dol.)
*72. Commercial
and industrial
loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks
(Mil. dol.)
*67. Bank
118. Mortgage
rates on short- yields, resiterm business dential ©
loans, 35
cities©
(Percent)
(Percent)
1967
January
February
March
16
L 76
c; cq
A
L 55
i. OQ
c qc
+236
April
May
June
-4-1 7*r
A AO
L L7
5 « CC
JJ
4
1 C
4
C~]
q £c
j .op
3 6A
C CO
5 « yi
+269
+297
3 Aft
6 06
July
August
September
+272
+298
+268
L 31
6 06
6 30
October
November
December .
+160
+270
+0
17
5
01
6 93
6 57
6 57
6 80
6 79
7 00
5 7.02
RTt> f • >•>«•
JH^- *
..
4 28
A A5
c on
A
L 59
6
3 -:>:>
ryl
OOA
^4,^^o
An ft7c.
An zoc:
OU,>£;>
AT i A'v
ol,lo^
3 An
*77 / qQ
rA-,4j57
Ao ,/ A-U^ r
o<c re?
3
AQ
.07
^ oA
J .70
( J 3 ( 4O
oq QAo
f J , 70^
ry)
AQ9
rA-,oj<^
•77 QO;
(^•)7<^-
An £Q3
Aq q9A
o^,^^o
4 02
IJC - I J Q
q QQ
7c A 9?
rrc ^o*'?
O^ M ^
Ao QAA
A Ao
A T3
O.±J>
Q5
QQ
c i Q
A
To
Aq qnQ
Oj5,J?W
6 on
./C7
5 •7P
QC
A ;;
0.44
CT
6.51
A
A e;q
0.^
7P
5 « QC
A An
c yo
p. QA
6 • 77
(I
A
qn
7 A Oft ft
A
qA
7A
enA
Aq CQO
°^ ^ P7^
Aq 7Q7
A
A0,
76 889
AA ft/, c
5 18
5 16
5 39
L. 29
77 2ft7
77
ft^
Ac
31
4 54
78 L.1Q
5 28
4 34
4 54
4 50
78 961
79 571
80 203
A7 ftAA
5 40
5 23
4 33
4.21
4.38
80 885
69 739
81^738
82,427
68,753
69 217
[FT^>6 89
^^^
[jr>83,359
r70,193
|f>p71,464
6.61
fir->». 5 A A
E>5.44
A ;A
0C
6 OP
A / , qnQ
A
A
S3
6 87
oq 7/.A
4 86
qq
4 ?6
O-L
A 7A
A csA
q ci
J • 54
q co
J • :><q cc
A AQ
A Ac,
A
ftl
1968
January
February
March
+144
5 08
+3 ft
L 97
5 14
April
May
June
-413
-326
-341
|JE>>5.62
5-54
July
August
September
-226
-190
-132
5.38
5.10
5.20
6.54
6.69
5 09
5.04
5.09
r-16?
p-281
5-33
5.49
6.88
7.00
5.24
5.36
-315
October
November
December
5.36
6.91
A
4.49
|£>4.60
(NA)
A rti
rn d
Ac A^n
Ac 7^Q
67 391
A qA
A
7ft
A gq
A QA
6 84
(NA)
lu^-^. r . X
|H^> 7 SP
68 016
710
( •*&
7 qc
( O>
7 ./CO
Oft
7 OQ
f .-C7
7 36
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE' Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by fi^; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45 r and 93)r current low values are indicated by
\i£>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1
This series reached its high value (-431) in Oct. 1 6 .
9 6
BCD
DECEMBER 1968
75
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing
Q| COMPOSITE INDEXES: INDICATORS ON THE NBER SHORT LIST1 (JANUARY 1948=100)
Year
and
month
1967
January
February
March
810. Twelve leaders, reverse trend
adjusted 2
(Series 1, 4, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29,
820. Five coinciders, estimated aggregate
economic activity
(Series 41, 43, 47, 52, 56)
830. Six laggers
(series 44, 61,62,67,71,72)
31, 113)
265.5
263.0
263.4
300.4
299.9
301.2
353.1
351.9
352.3
April
May
June
264.1
265.0
269.4
300.9
300.6
302.8
352.7
352.1
353-7
July
August
September
270.6
275.0
274.9
304.5
307.6
305.7
354.5
354.1
356.4
October
November
December
277.6
280.8
285.9
304.8
312.3
31'M
357.7
359.9
r364.3
1968
January
February
March
282.1
286.2
2b7.9
319.0
322.3
325.4
r370.1
r374.3
r376.0
April
May
June
287.2
289.3
r293 .8
326.4
329.5
r331.7
r383.0
r385.7
r387.6
July
August
September
r296.0
r297.0
r300.4
r334.5
r335.6
r337.8
r388.4
r393.2
r396.0
October
November
December
r308. 0
P308.2
r340.2
P344.5
r399.2
P404.0
1969
January
February
March
April .
May
June
Juiv
August
September
October
November
December
•"•All series on the short list except series 54, 200, and 205 are included.
2
Reverse trend adjusted index of'12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident
76
indicators.
DECEMBER 1968
BUI
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES
Year
and
quarter
410. Manufacturers' sales,
total value
61. Expenditures for new plant
and equipment
a. Actual
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
b. Second
anticipations as
percent of actual
(Percent)
c. First
anticipations as
percent of actual
(Percent)
414. Condition
of manufacturers'
inventories:
percent considered
high less percent
considered low
(Percent)
412. Manufacturers' inventories,
total book value
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
416. Adequacy of
mfrs.' capacity:
percent considered
inadequate less
percent considered
excessive
(Percent)
1966
98.6
99.2
101.5
100.1
102.6
102.9
101.2
103.1
11
14
19
26
47
45
46
42
80.1
81.1
81.7
82.8
30
29
23
22
40
40
41
38
145-2
149.5
r!52.7
a!56.0
100.7
101.2
100.6
70.0
72.7
75-5
78.1
135.0
135-6
137.4
140.7
97-8
98.0
99-7
58.00
60.10
61.25
62.80
131.2
134.0
135-3
137.5
83.8
85.6
rffjM
a89.2
22
22
20
35
35
40
a!58.4
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
a91.1
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
61.65
61.50
60.90
62.70
99.0
99.9
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
P
65
63.45
ra6?.25
rlOO.l
r!03.1
102.3
rlOO.5
r!02.6
104.1
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
420. Current family income of households compared
to income a year ago
a. Percent of
households reporting no change
in family income
(Percent)
b. Percent of
households reporting a higher
family income
(Percent)
c. Percent of
households reporting a .lower
family income
(Percent)
425. Mean probability of substantial changes in
income of households
a. Mean probability of an
increase in
family income
(Percent)
b. Increase
less
decrease
(Percent)
c. Mean probability of a
decrease in
family income
(Percent)
430. Number
of new car
purchases by
households
(Ann. rate,
mil. cars)
435. Index of
consumer
sentiment
(First Q
1966*100)
1966
8.3
7.6
8.3
7.4
100.0
95-7
91.2
88.3
7.0
6.5
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
92.2
94.9
96.5
92.9
7.5
7.9
9.1
95.0
92.4
92.9
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
52.4
55.2
53.9
54.2
35.4
32.9
34.2
33-3
11.2
11.0
11.0
11.6
52.3
47.5
48.1
51.2
36.0
40.9
40.3
38.0
11.1
10.9
11.0
10.1
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .
16.0
15.8
17.4
16.2
10.2
5.9
5.9
6.2
6.0
19.3
18.3
18.4
16.7
13.8
12.5
11.9
11.2
5-5
5.8
6.5
5-5
10.1
9.9
11.2
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series
relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the-back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA",
not available.
1
Anticipated purchases for January-June
DECEMBER 1968
1969.
77
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Year
and
quarter
D440. New orders, manufacturing'
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
D442. Net profits, manufacturing
and trade'-'
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
D444. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade 2
Actual
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
D446. Number of employees,
manufacturing and trade 2
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
77
76
69
63
72
77
77
69
63
64
56
53
67
73
68
64
76
76
70
65
75
80
81
73
30
31
26
25
25
26
26
23
42
43
38
43
65
64
60
62
30
30
29
38
50
48
51
53
42
41
43
49
61
63
65
64
16
16
16
16
21
21
21
19
57
57
58
60
66
64
62
41
46
43
47
59
57
46
58
63
63
65
72
71
68
14
19
17
21
19
17
19
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1969
65
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
55
71
21
DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade 2
Year
and
quarter
Selling prices
D460. Manufacturing
and trade 2
D462. Manufacturing 5
D464. Wholesale trade 2
Anticipated
D466. Retail trade ?
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
48
49
46
47
32
37
38
38
49
47
59
55
32
38
47
41
41
43
55
52
30
35
43
36
57
52
63
56
36
44
51
56
57
67
61
26
39
51
50
36
31
30
29
30
31
26
25
44
45
52
56
50
44
39
44
41
40
A4
46
48
43
36
39
47
49
59
64
51
46
38
47
49
59
67
74
53
52
44
57
37
37
39
26
31
34
31
57
59
62
52
58
55
57
49
51
57
49
52
50
52
62
64
64
75
75
75
62
69
72
74
Actual
(4-Q span)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .
55
57
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
32
56
50
58
68
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series
relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and"NA",
not available.
•'•Net diffusion indexes: percent rising less percent declining (placed at terminal quarter).
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
78
DECEMBER 1968
KCII
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Q DIFFUSION INDEXES1-^.
Year
and
quarter
D61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
all industries
(1-Qspan)
1966
First Quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1967
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter ....
1968
First quarter
Second quarter.
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
66.7
66.7
1.
11
50.0
1.
11
-38.9
-33,3
22.2
33-3
-22.2
1.
11
(1-Qspan)
25.0
43.8
-25.0
31.2
b. Anticipations
a. Actual
carloadings
c. First
anticipations
b. Second
anticipations
a. Actual
expenditures
480. Change in
freight carloadings ©
D480. Freight carloadings©
12.5
43.8
43.8
50.0
0.0
-16.7
-11.1
0.0
- 11
1 .
27.8
1.
11
38.9
66.7
27.8
-5.6
61.1
1.
11
6.2
5.6
16.7
(Mil. of cars4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(1-Q span)
47.4
47-4
15.8
5.2
-15.8
-36.8
-79.0
-15.8
(NA)
47.4
79.0
68.4
57.8
+28
+18
+21
+1
57.8
47.4
-51
-88
-130
r-90
47.4
26.4
47.4
36.8
-21
+26
+52
r+42
57.8
5.2
44.4
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©.
Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
T-Data are net diffusion indexes (percent rising less percent declining) except series 480 which is the change in total over the
the span. All data are placed at the terminal quarter.
ItCIt
DECEMBER 1968
79
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Qj FOREIGN TRADE
500. Merchandise trade
balance (series 502 minus
series 512)
Year
and
month
(Mil. dol.)
502. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
508. Index of export orders,
nonelectrical machinery
512. General imports, total
(1957-59=100)
506. Manufacturers' new
orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicles and parts
(Mil. dol.)
1967
January
February
March
+361
+376
+349
2,617
2,605
2,548
920
B55
904
235
196
252
April .
May ..
June
+427
+410
+350
2,653
2,547
2,577
793
1,005
961
220
218
July
August
September
+376
2,256
2,229
2,200
215
2,226
2,137
2,227
907
219
2 208
CI ,Q
A#7
H-A/30
2 638
op;.
POA
OU
pon
<2-L
2 *125
2 PD&
+196
+310
O.QI.
OPQ
pc#
2 £>Q1
A71
2 603
QQO
po;.
<?4per
O2
2 -1 Qrt
2 OOO
CO C
2 >X5
+1.01.
October
November
December
+7 a
2 585
2
0
) PM-7
-1 Q C
1968
January
February
March
+176
+171
-158
2 785
2 77?
2 Zi.55
April
May
June
+248
2 888
2 720
July
August
September
+139
-32
-80
+88
+282
October....
November
December
-63
-1-171
909
2 594
2,989
2 609
260
pep
2
A OP
964
p
£T p
2 640
2 7*52
2 #?9
917
N
"
241
1 047
989
2 759
2,803
2 916
3,246
21 £,
1 007
237
22?
914
988
246
2A.5
•pQOq
r256
2 664
2 827
2 96A.
r>l 299
(NA)
p229
(NA)
2 6^7
2,818
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
.
November
December
...
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
DECEMBER 1968
KCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Year
and
quarter
250. Balance on goods and
services, excluding military
grants
U.S. balance of payments
520. Liquidity balance
basis
525. Liquidity balance
basis1
522. Official settlements
basis
(Mil. dol.)
Net capital movements plus unilateral transfers
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
527. Official settlements
basis2
(Mil. dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1,508
1,309
1,134
1,130
-2,138
-1,402
-1,435
-1,463
-1,917
-1,425
+247
-1,082
1,293
1,269
1,359
848
-1,798
-1,791
-2,161
-2,590
-3,057
-2,075
-1,112
-1,930
r-556
14-1,528
rp+444
r326
r592
p878
r-1,013
r-756
P-837
r-882
14936
P-434
-630
-93
-301
-333
+692
-505
-522
-1,764
-802
-1,742
r-687
r-164
rp+41
-409
-116
+99
-442
-1,031
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
-806
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
530. Liquid
liabilities to
all foreigners3
(Mil. dol.)
532. Liquid
534. U.S.
and certain
official renpnliquid lia- serve assets 4
bilities to
foreign official agencies3
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
Goods and services movements, excluding transfers under military grants
Goods and services
Merchandise, adjusted
Income on investment, military
transactions, other serv., total
252. Exports
253. Imports
536. Exports
537. Imports
540. Exports
541. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
29,200
29,225
29,A44
29,783
16,060
16,361
15,853
16,044
15,026
14,958
1,7
486
14,882
10,528
10,645
10,912
11,059
9,020
9,336
9,778
9,929
7,188
7,179
7,369
7,440
6,036
6,263
6,567
6,675
3,340
3,466
3,543
3,619
2,984
3,073
3,211
3,254
29,261
30,202
31,379
33,302
16,296
17,420
17,820
19,397
13,855
14,274
14,649
14,830
11,371
11,377
11,513
11,496
10,078
10,108
10,154
10,648
7,661
7,703
7,626
7,478
6,686
6,605
6,541
7,159
3,710
3,674
3,887
4,018
3,392
3,503
3,613
3,489
r33,085
r33,386
P33,916
r843
!,0
rl6,977
p!7,457
13,926
14,063
p464
!,3
11,860
rL?,557
p!3,247
rll,534
rll,965
p!2,369
7,924
r8,325
rp8,840
7,867
r8,320
rp8,578
3,936
r4,232
p4,407
3,667
r3,645
P3,791
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
^•Series 520 minus series 250.
2
Series 522 minus series 250.
Amount outstanding at the end of quarter.
4
Reserve position at the end of quarter.
3
ltd!
DECEMBER 1968
81
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
Income on investment, military transfers and other services (components of series 540 and 541)
Income on investments
542. U.S. investments abroad
(Mil. dol.)
543. Foreign
investments in
the U.S.
(Mil. dol.)
Transportation and other services
Military transactions
Travel
546. Sales under 547. Military
544. Receipts
545. Payments
expenditures
from foreign trav- by U.S. travelers military conabroad
tracts
elers in the U.S. abroad
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
548. Receipts
from
(Mil. dol.)
549. Payments
for
(Mil. dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1,478
1,537
1,587
1,648
476
479
556
563
379
389
411
411
637
674
672
674
200
219
205
205
872
923
962
979
1,594
1,556
1,827
1,882
560
560
575
598
421
384
417
424
704
841
925
725
335
336
245
323
1,742
660
r704
P735
442
421
773
rl,950
p2,048
306
362
1,283
1,321
1,338
1,355
999
997
1,021
1,038
1,072
1,065
1,098
1,104
1,360
1,398
1,398
1,389
1,056
1,037
1,015
1,062
1,110
rl,123
pl,150
r1,499
pi,511
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
P443
r754
P784
P405
1,446
1,124
r1,064
pi,122
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
Capital movements including errors and omissions
Direct investments
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
(Mil. dol.)
Securities investments
561. U.S. investments 564. Foreign purchases 565. U.S. purchases
abroad
of U.S. securities
of foreign securities
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
570. Government
grants and capital
transactions, net
575. Banking and
other capital transactions, net
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
+52
+38
-113
+110
695
1,002
872
1,054
+64
+70
+12
+104
653
651
902
815
+256
r+33
P+40
rl,035
pi,102
+173
+357
+520
+14
+81
+30
+107
+109
-1,122
-1,054
-783
-772
+169
+419
4238
+438
1967
First quarter./.
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
+34
+476
+332
-1,190
-995
-911
-1,101
+700
rrl,056
p+1,046
+385
r+83
rp-r313
-1,046
r-385
P-763
+133
+259
+329
+520
+199
+527
+409
r+251
r+282
-409
-279
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .
374
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
DECEMBER 1968
p-11
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Defense indicators
Receipts and expenditures
Year
and
month
600. Federal
surplus (+) or
deficit (-), national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
601. Federal
receipts, national income
and product
accounts
602. Federal
expenditures,
national income
and product
accounts
264. National
defense purchases, current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
-li.*2
148!l
-13 '.3
July
August
September
October
November
December
648. New or647. New orders, defense ders, defense
products indus- products
tries
625. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
and institutions
616. Defense
Department
obligations,
total excluding
military
assistance
621. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
159^3
70.0
6,518
6,595
6,343
2,296
2,140
1,903
3.01
3.32
3.07
3,364
3,930
3,034
148!2
161 ! 5
72.1
6,211
7,732
6,891
1,754
2,480
2,290
3-17
4.04
3.93
3,026
4,040
3,566
-12.9
152! 2
165'.!
72.9
5,928
7,003
7,479
1,633
1,925
2,958
3.60
2.99
3.36
3,545
3,690
3,720
-12.2
156^4
168.6
74^6
7,449
6,565
6,331
2,735
2,173
1,846
3-98
3-64
4.36
3,626
3,308
3,479
-8.6
166! 6
175'i
76.*8
7,033
7,615
6,208
2,360
2,865
1,985
3.51
3.86
5.07
1.60
1.31
2,887
3,445
3,124
April
May
June
-10.2
171 '.$
181 !9
79.0
6,765
7,441
6,929
2,161
2,299
2,077
4.43
4.01
2.96
1.47
2.27
2.06
3,488
4,203
3,067
July
. .
August . . .
September ... .
r-2.8
r!82.1
184^9
79^6
7,313
8,054
8,357
2,323
2,804
3,234
3.67
3.91
3.55
1.91
2.36
1.92
3,937
3,173
4,022
(NA)
2,298
r4.41
P3.89
r2.88
pi. 86
r4,038
(NA)
1967
January
February
March ...
April .
May ...
June
.
1968
January
February
March
October....
November
December
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
.
(NA)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
. .
Juiy
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1968
83
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q| PRICE MOVEMENTS
Consumer price indexes
Wholesale price indexes
Year
and
781. All items® 782. Food ®
month
784. Services® 750. All commod783. Commodities less foods®
ities®
58. Manufactured goods®
751. Processed
foods and
feeds ®
752. Farm products®
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
January
February
March
114.7
114.8
115.0
114.7
114.2
114.2
107-3
107.6
107.8
125.5
125.9
126.3
106.2
106.0
105.7
106.4
106.4
106.3
112.8
111.7
110.6
102.6
101.0
99.6
April .
June
115-3
115.6
116.0
113.7
113.9
115.1
108.4
108.7
108.9
126.6
127.0
127,4
105.3
105.8
106.3
106.2
106.3
106.6
110.0
110.7
112.6
97.6
100.7
102.4
July
August
September
116.5
116.9
117.1
116.0
116.6
115.9
109.1
109.4
110.0
127-7
128.2
128.7
106.5
106.1
106.2
106.8
106.8
107.1
113.1
112.1
112.7
102.8
99.2
98.4
October
November
December
117.5
117.8
118.2
H5.7
115.6
116.2
110.6
111.1
111.1
129.1
129.6
130.1
106.1
106.2
106.8
107.1
107.3
107.6
111.7
110.9
111.5
97.1
96.4
98.9
118.6
119.0
119.5
117.0
117.4
117.9
111.2
111.5
111.9
130.8
131.3
132.1
107.2
108.0
108.2
108.1
108.7
108.9
112.4
113.3
112.9
99.0
101.3
102.1
iia.3
June
119.9
120.3
120.9
118.8
119.1
112,2
112.5
113.0
132.5
133.0
133.9
108.3
108.5
108.7
109.1
109.1
109.4
112.8
113.6
114.6
102.1
103.6
102.5
July
August
September
121.5
121.9
122.2
120.0
120.5
120.4
113.2
113.5
113.9
134.9
135.5
136.0
109.1
108.7
109.1
109.7
109.5
109.9
115.9
114.9
115.3
103.9
101.4
102.8
October...November
December
122.9
123.4
120.9
120.5
114.7
115.3
rl36.6
109.1
109.6
110.0
110.3
114.4
114.7
101.2
103.1
1967
May
1968
January
February
March
April
. .
May
137.4
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December .
...
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; ttp", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
DECEMBER
1968
ItCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
[jQj ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP
Year
and
quarter
207. Gap (potential less actual)
Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars
206. Potential level
205. Actual value
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1966
First Quarter
Second Quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
648.6
653.3
659.5
667.1
637.6
643.9
650.2
656.6
-11.0
-9.4
-9.3
-10.5
665.7
669.2
675.6
681.8
663.1
66Q.6
676.2
682.9
-2.6
+0.4
+0.6
+1.1
692.7
703.4
712.3
689.6
696.4
703.3
710.2
-3.1
-7.0
-9.0
1967
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
First quarter . . .
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
ItO
DECEMBER 1968
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q ANALYTICAL RATIOS
1967
January
February
March
850. Ratio,
output to capacity manufacturing
851. Ratio,
inventories
to sales, manufacturing
and trade
852. Ratio,
unfilled orders to shipments, manufacturers'
durable goods
853. Ratio,
production of
business
equipment to
consumer
goods
(Percent)
Year
and
month
(Ratio)
(Ratio)
(1957-59=100)
854. Ratio,
personal saving to disposablepersonal
income
(Ratio)
855. Ratio,
nonagricultural jobopenings unfilled
to persons
unemployed
(Ratio)
858. Output
per man-hour,
total private
nonfarm
1.57
1.58
1.59
3.51
3.50
3.46
126.0
127.6
125.6
0.074
0.138
0.131
0.127
127^8
April
May
June
85*.6
1.59
1.59
1.57
3.53
3.50
3.48
124.3
124.6
123.3
0.068
0.123
0.119
0.115
128! 9
July
August
September
84i3
1.58
1.56
1.57
3.54
3.40
3.48
123.1
121.7
122.3
0.074
0.114
0.119
0.118
October
November
December
84.7
1.59
1.57
1.56
3.54
3.44
3.39
119.4
122.2
119.9
0.078
p84^9
1.55
1.54
1.53
3.37
3.36
3.39
121.2
119.6
118.3
April
May
June . . . .
P84*.8
1.55
1.54
1.52
3.41
3.36
3.28
July
August
September . . . .
P83i6
rl.51
1.54
1.52
pl.52
(NA)
October . . .
November
December
1969
January
February
March.
. . .
859. Real
spendable avg.
wkly. earnings,
nonagri.prod.
or nonsupv.
workers
(1957-59=100) (1957-59 dol.) (1957-59 dol.)
87.1
1968
January
February
March
856. Real
avg. hourly
earnings,
prod, workers,
mfg.
857. Vacancy
rate in total
rental housing©
(Percent)
2.41
2.42
2.43
78.23
77.91
77.89
6.6
2.42
2.42
6.3
2.43
77.65
77.79
77-91
129^5
2.43
2.44
2.43
78.18
78.23
78.51
6.*4
0.108
0.118
0.119
130.0
2.43
2.44
2.45
78.02
78.42
78.09
5^6
0.071
0.129
0.122
0.129
13l'. 9
2.47
2.46
2.48
77-77
78.79
78.64
5^5
117.9
118.0
rl!7.5
0.075
0.141
0.142
0.131
1-132! 7
2.47
2.48
2.48
78.14
78.81
79.25
5^7
3.17
3.38
3.24
rl!7.3
rll6.3
rl!7.7
0.063
0.125
0.132
0.135
133 '.5
2.48
2.48
79.00
79.07
79.74
5*.4
r2.50
3.19
(NA)
rl!7.4
pllS.l
r2.50
P2.50
r79.lo
P78.39
0.132
pO.140
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p"i preliminary;
"en, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
DECEMBER 1968
IICII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
QH DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators
Year
and
month
Dl. Average workweek, manufacturing
(21 industries)
1 -month span
9-month span
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (35 industries)
1-month span
9-month span
Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB (17 industries)
1-quarter span
3-quarter span
1967
January
February
March
69.0
7.1
81.0
11.9
9.5
9.5
40.0
54.3
32.9
34.3
34.3
38.6
47
53
April
May
June
40.5
28.6
64.3
16.7
38.1
31.0
48.6
54.3
64.3
65.7
61.4
65.7
53
41
July
August
.. . .
September
71.4
59.5
76.2
76.2
61.9
40.5
40.0
72.9
42.9
74.3
91.4
70.0
53
59
October
November
December
28.6
71.4
45.2
81.0
69.0
14.3
60.0
54.3
74.3
71.4
71.4
68.6
41
41
1968
January
February . .
March
14.3
90.5
21.4
57.1
64.3
64.3
51.4
55.7
50.0
57.1
71.4
68.6
47
53
April
May
June
11.9
90.5
73.8
33.3
85.7
r85.7
40.0
54.3
51.4
68.6
68.6
r80.0
71
P59
35.7
38.1
r88.1
P33.3
51.4
44.3
78.6
P74.3
P53
July
August
September
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
r35.7
P21.4
r60.0
P42.9
April
May
June
Juiy
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
BCII
DECEMBER 1968
87
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
U
Year
and
month
D34. Profits,
manufacturing,
FNCB (about 1,000
corporations)
-DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators-Con.
D19. Index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (77 industries)© 1
D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
9-month span
D5. Initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, week
including the 12th (47 areas)
1 -month span
9-month span
1 -month span
9-month span
1-month span
48
90.9
92.2
61.0
85.7
90.3
97.4
46.2
53.8
23.1
0.0
15.4
26.9
55.3
17.0
46.8
27.7
8.5
8.5
April
May
June
46
76.0
74.0
51.3
93.4
92.1
86.2
23.1
61.5
69.2
30.8
23.1
23.1
55.3
54.3
55.3
31.9
44.7
29.8
July
August
September
52
81.6
77.6
57.2
68.4
65.8
71.1
30.8
53.8
19.2
23.1
30.8
46.2
34.0
72.3
60.6
78.7
78.7
66.0
October
November
December
59
32.2
7.9
71.1
52.6
46.1
50.0
46.2
46.2
61.5
38.5
30.8
30.8
38.3
74.5
46.8
80.9
70.2
78.7
55
64.5
10.5
21.1
61.8
63.2
71.1
46.2
46.2
53.8
30.8
46.2
46.2
25.5
80.9
25.5
57.4
51.1
61.7
45
94.7
83.6
80.3
76.3
82.7
85.3
46.2
53.8
50.0
53.8
61.5
73.1
63.8
51.1
53.2
38.3
51.1
74.5
r56
48.7
17.8
86.7
93.3
46.2
65.4
57.7
76.9
53.8
57.4
40.4
63.8
36.2
1 -quarter span
1967
January
February
March.
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October....
November
December
1969
January
February
March
82.7
77.3
S
69.2
69.2
38.5
S
66.0
31.9
April
May
June
Juiv
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on
the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and
"NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by®.
^•Based on 77 components through June 1967; on 76 components, July 1967 through August 1968; and on 75 components thereafter.
2
Average for December 17, 18, and 19.
DECEMBER
1968
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Qj DIFFUSION INDEXES: Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year
and
month
D41. Number of employees in
nonagricultural establishments
(30 industries)
1-month span
6-month span
D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)
1 -month span
6-month span
D58. Index of wholesale prices
(22 manufacturing industries)©
1-month span
6-month span
D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)
1-month span
9-month span
1967
January
February
March
75.0
41.7
36.7
48.3
43-3
41.7
29.2
20.8
43.8
45.8
29.2
27.1
77.3
72.7
56.8
63.6
68.2
65.9
87.0
39.1
43-5
69.6
91.3
95.7
April
May
June
38.3
40.0
60.0
35.0
43.3
36.7
52.1
16.7
50.0
29.2 .
41.7
41.7
47.7
54.5
47.7
63.6
63.6
63.6
60.9
34.8
82.6
87.0
91.3
56.5
July
August
September
46.7
60.0
46.7
48.3
68.3
78.3
47-9
75.0
41.7
54.2
66.7
75-0
63.6
63.6
75.0
72.7
81.8
81.8
43.5
60.9
76.1
82.6
78.3
82.6
October ...
November . ...
December
78.3
88.3
86.7
73.3
83.3
88.3
56.2
87.5
83.3
75.0
77.1
83.3
72.7
77.3
90.9
81.8
90.9
95.5
37.0
67.4
47.8
95.7
95-7
73-9
1968
January
February
March
63.3
71.7
58.3
91.7
80.0
80.0
37.5
70.8
75.0
77-1
83.3
75.0
90.9
84.1
68.2
90.9
r95.5
90.9
73.9
65.2
82.6
82.6
91.3
91.3
April
May
June
56.7
70.0
75.0
83.3
75.0
r75.0
41.7
70.8
r79.2
83.3
r70.8
r79.2
72.7
63.6
61.4
75.0
84.1
81.8
26.1
60.9
65.2
87.0
91.3
87.0
July
August
September
60.0
75-0
r43.3
r76.7
P75.0
r58.3
r64.6
r70.$
68.2
70.5
72.7
84.1
81.8
63.0
58.7
34.8
October . .
November
December
r70.0
P58.3
r62.5
P75.0
75.0
P66.7
79.5
79.5
P87.0
r63.0
p69.6
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
Juiv
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on the
4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table E4
identifies the components for the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by @.
DECEMBER 1968
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change
1968
Diffusion index components
November^
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURINGx
(Average weekly hours)
40.1
All manufacturing industries
t-
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
o
-1-
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
-
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
-
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
+
-
40.9
o
+
+
+
-t-
«>
+
+
40.9
40.7
(74)
(90)
(12)
(36)
41.6 40.7 o
41.1 42.0 42.1 41.9 42.0 o
40.6 42.5 +
40.6 39.7 -
41.3
40.7
40.7
41.9
41.9
41.7
42.0
40.3
42.6
40.5
39.2
+
o
-t-
(38)
40.9
40.9
40.1
40.0
41.7
42.3
40.4
41.0
39.5
41.1
39.6
38.5
+
41.5
40.3
41.2
41.8
42.0
41.7
+
+
+
+
+-
41.9
40.2
42.9
40.5
39.7
+
1+
+
+
+
o
40.4
34.1
40.6
35.0
42.0
+
+
-H
+
+
40.7
38.0
41.2
36.3
43.0
+
+
+
+
o
41.1
38.5
41.3
36.4
43.0
+
+
40.8
38.1
41.5
36.1
43.1
+
+
37.8
41.4
42.7
40.3
38.1
+
+
+
+
38.1
41.6
42.5
41.7
38.8
+
+
o
38.2
41.7
42.3
41.7
38.7
+
o
+
+
-
38.3
41.7
42.8
41.8
38.1
+
o
o
o
+
o
o
-
41.0
41.6
40.7
40.6
41.9
40.2
41.7
+ r42.0
+
r41.1
+ 40.8
+ r42.2
+
41.3
-t42.1
41.9
40.5
41.9
40.5
39.2
+ 42.4
+ r40.9
+ r42.6
+ 40.6
+ 39.7
41.1
38.9
41.1
36.0
42.9
- 40.9
- r38.5
+ r41.6
+ 36.5
+ r43.2
38.4
41.7
42.1
41.4
37.8
o r38.4
+ 42.0
+ r42.5
+
41.6
+ r38.4
o
40.8
(36)
41.1
(38)
(21)
r42.0
40.9
r40.8
42.1
r41.3
42.3
r42.2
r40.4
r42.7
r40.5
39.5
-
o
41.9
40.4
40.8
41.7
41.0
42.3
+
-
42.1
40.3
42.5
40.6
39.4
40.8
37.6 +
41.1 o
r36.4 43.1
40.2
37.8
41.1
35.8
42.9
38.6
41.9
42.7
41.7
r38.6
+
38.3
42.2
42.6
41.6
38.0
+ r30,280 (60)
29,581
4,397
1,990 +
4,540
(NA)
o
o
t+
-
-
+
+
+
+
o
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries
Primary metals
Blast furnaces steel mills
-
+
27,373
(40)
4,244
2,396
-
27,172 -
_
3,900
2,014
2,819
Fabricated metal products
Metal cans barrels and drums
Hardware structural metal and wire products
Other fabricated metal products
Special industry machinery*
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery*
-
3,867
1,755
+
3,859
1,791
-
o
4,658
t
+
+
4,665
*
2,824
...
2,755
2,917
4,923
4,766
386 +
439
+
+
666
374
~
322
631 +
339 +
698
340
636
294
+
493
476
404
393
r4,092
3,491
1,400 + 1,682
-t•••
4,810
2,941
(79)
(44)
(51)
"*"
Iron and s^eel foundries
Other primary metals
Machinery, except electrical
Steam engines and turbines*
Internal combustion engines*
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling*.
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment*
-t- r27,329 + r28,381
26,701
(51)
(54)
431
661 +
257 +
748
330
•••
453
508
+
(NA)
5,403
5,184
414
(NA)
3,271
3,103
+
0
+
+
+
+
(43)
647 +
(NA)
+
+
(NA)
(NA)
699
299
I
466 (NA)
t
-t-
...
4-
...
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. * Denotes machinery
and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency.
90
DECEMBER 1968
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1968
Diffusion index components
April
June
May
July
September
August
October
November
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1 -Continued
(Millions of dollars)
Electrical machinery
Electrical transmission distr. equipment*
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment!
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery*
3,366
+
710 I
919
+
+
+
7,326
3,476
3,725
3,313
I
648 608 684 "
+
+
+
946 +
794 +
955
Other transportation equipment
Furniture total
Stone clay and slass total
+
... +
+
+
+
+
1,085
+
+
+
•••
... +
... +
... +
+
+
1,093
...
1,219
I
+
(NA)
(NA)
+
... +
P7,712
r7,764
...
+
+
+
+
•••
...
+
+
+
...
+
+
+
• ••
+
««•
0
• ••
: +
• ••
+
r6,996
...
+
+
(NA)
3,751
567 730
+
+
-f
+
+
+
+
+
+
-t+
r7,479
r6,749
6,259
. 7,343
-
+
Aircraft partst
809 !
+
+
3,668
3,501
-
-t-
• ••
D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS 2
(1941-43 - 10)
Index of 500 stock prices
+
Percent rising of 76 components
95.67 +
(95)
Coal, bituminous
Food composite
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Texti le products
Paper
Publishing
+
+
+
+
+
+
Chemicals
Drugs
Oi 1 composite
Building materials composite
Steel
Metal fabricating
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
... -j-
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
Electronics .
Automobiles
Radio and television broadcasters
+
• ••
Telephone companies
Electric companies
Natural gas distributors
Retail stores composite
Life insurance
... +
... +
... +
97.87 + 100.53 (80)
(84)
... +
+
... +
+
+
... +
100.30 -
98.11 +
(18)
(49)
... +
...
... +
+
+
... +
... +
... +
... +
...
... +
... +
...
+
... +
... +
-t+
+
+
+
...
+
+
+
+
... +
+
... +
... +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
••' +
... +
+
+
+
... +
+
+
+
... +
... +
... +
...
+
+
+
+
... +
... +
... +
+
+
...
... +
+
...
+
+
... +
... +
+
... +
+
... +
... +
... +
+
...
...
+
+
+
+
... +
+
+
... +
... +
+
+
... +
...
... +
... +
+
... +
... +
... +
. . H~
-
... +
...
-
...
...
—
...
...
...
...
+
+
+
+
+
101.34 + 103.76 + 105.40
(S3)
(87)
(77)
...
...
...
-
...
+
+
+
... +
... +
+
+
0
...
... +
...
... +
... +
+
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
+
+
+
...
...
+
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (-f) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers areheld confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. *Denotes machinery
and equipment industries that comprise series 24. t These industries plus ordnance comprise series 647.
•'•Data are
Data are
representing
3
Based on
2
KCII
seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
not seasonally adjusted. The components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table E3.
76 components through August 1968, and on 75 components thereafter.
DECEMBER 1968
91
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1968
Diffusion index components
May
April
July
June
August
September
October
December1
November
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 2
Industrial materials price
index (1957-59-100)
96.1
98.3
-
95.6
94.4 +
94.8
+
96.1
+
97.5
+
100.3 +
100.8
(Dollars)
Percent rising of 13 components
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.)
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin(lb.)
Zinc(lb.)
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (Ib.), 12-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops (Ib.)
Hides (Ib.).
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib.)
Tallow (Ib.)
+
+
+
+
+
+
(46)
.421
.063
25.471
1.462
.14.0
.125
.244
.198
1.619
.157
10.711
.174
.047
(50)
(54)
.388
.056
- 24.802
- 1.428
+
.141'
+
.126
+
+
+
+
+
+ .396
o .056
- 22,562
- 1.419
+
.141
+
.131
.240
.241
.202 + .204
o 1.632
1.631
.139
.151
10.775 - 10.764
.186 + .208
.047 o .047
(46)
+
.403
.054
21.202
1.413
.141
.139
o
+
+
.298
o
.204
- 1.573
.137
+ 10.894
+
.208
.044
(65)
(58)
+ 22.307
+ 1.452
+ .310
- .202
+ 1.576
+ .144
+ 10.971
+ .212
+ .046
- .302
+
.312
+
.202
+ .203
+ 1.597 + 1.631
+
.168
+
.160
o 10.971 - 10.948
.211
+ .220
.044
+ .045
+
.414
.052
.141
.14-3
(38)
(69)
(69)
.410
+ .054
+ 22.460
+ 1.500
.140
+
.149
- .393
- .052
-20.548
+ 1.415
o
.14.1
+ .145
+
+
+
+
.460
.404 +
.053
.055
24.288 - 22.750
1.621 + 1.661
.140
.139
.158
.163
.278
+
.205
+ 1.636
+
.175
- 10.916
+
.226
+
.049
.266
+
.209
- 1.597
+
.178
+ 11.898
.222
.044
D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS3
(Thousands)
190
Percent rising of 47 components
Northeast region:
Boston (7) . .
Buffalo (20)
Newark (12).
New York (1)
Paterson (22)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (25)
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (21)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26)
Detroit (5)
Indianapolis (23)
Kansas City (19) ....
Milwaukee (18) . .
Minneapolis (13)
St. Louis (8)
South region:
Atlanta (17)
Baltimore (11)
Dallas (15)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
Portland (24)
San Francisco (6)
Seattle (16)
193
(64)
Avg. weekly initial claims . . .
+
(51)
+
+
...
+
+
+
...
...
...
...
+
+
201
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
...
...
...
...
+
+
...
+
+
...
...
+
+
+
+
...
...
+
...
+
+
...
...
...
+
...
+
...
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
+
+
...
...
+
+
...
...
+
+
+
...
...
...
+
+
'.'.'.
+
+
...
...
+
...
+
...
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
+
+
+
+
183
(32)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
178
(66)
+
...
-i+
+
...
+
+
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
+
+
+
+
+
. .
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
»•
186
(64)
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
+
...
+
+
~H
-f-
+
(40)
...
_j+
+
214
(57)
+
+
+
...
+
190
(53)
+
+
+
+
+
...
...
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Average for December 17, 18, and 19.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
The industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted. Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded.
3
The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises:
(-) - rising, (o) - unchanged, and (+) = falling.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before
the direction of change is determined. Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month.
Directions of change are
shown separately for only the 26 largest labor market areas. The number following the area designation indicates its size rank.
2
92
DECEMBER 1968
ItCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1968
Diffusion index components
April
June
May
July
August
September1"
October
November13
041. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS 1
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagricultural payrolls
+
(57)
Percent rising of 30 components
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products.
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retai 1 trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
67,755 +
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
o
+
o
+
o
+
192
520
3B7
517
1,054
1,059
1,332
1,310
1,425
275
335
11 1
, 9
68
868
1,251
536
663
602
117
426
311
632
3,313
4,331
3,641
10,368
3,323
10,402
2,717
9,371
67,792 + 68,039
(70)
(.75)
+ 68,170
+
+
+ 1,204
o
73
+
877
+ 1,265
+
542
664
+
609
o
118
+
435
o
312
200
517
389
516
+ 1,044
- 1,068
- 1,322
+ 1,308
+ 1,478
272
+
344
- 11 5
, 8
+
74
876
- 1,249
o
542
+
665
+
610
+
119
433
301
632
631 +
3,245 - 3,174
- 4,381 + 4,336
+
3,655 + 3,679
+ 10,394 + 10,407
+
3,334 o 3,335
+ 10,425 + 10,467
+ 2,721 + 2,795
+ 9,413 + 9,437
+
638
+ 3,189
+ 4,346
o 3,680
+ 10,437
+ 3,350
+ 10,498
- 2,788
+ 9,468
+
+
o
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
193
516
389
514
1,054
1,060
1,331
1,312
1,419
275
338
1,185
73
871
1,256
538
665
603
118
427
312
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
198
514
392
517
1,042
1,070
1,334
1,305
1,438
275
339
+
(60
68,314
(75)
+ 68,382 + r68,640. + 68,803
(58)
(70)
(43)
o
200
ir
518
+
393
+
518
- 1,023
1,066
+ 1,331
+ 1,313
- 1,415
+
278
o
344
+ 11 7
, 8
+
77
+
878
- 1,245
+
545
+
666
+
614
18
1
+
438
+
307
o
638
+ 3,195
+
4,358
+
3,683
+ 10,498
+
3,376
+ 10,548
- 2,751
+ 9,519
198
517
o
393
515
- 10 2
, 1
+ 1,073
+ 1,332
o 1,313
+ 1,439
277
341
- 11 3
, 8
74
875
+ 1,254
541
663
o
614
o
118
o
438
306
-
rl64.6
(65)
+ 165.1 +
r!22*.8
rl66.3
- 119! 9 +
+ 167.6 -t-
r!22.0 +
r!71.7 +
130
173
+
+
186
190
180
187
140
152
(NA)
+
639
+ 3,252
+ 4,365
+ 3,695
+ 10,527
+ 3,387
o 10,545
- 2,716
- 9,501
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
r!85
r521
r396
r521
rl,009
rl,091
rl,339
rl,301
rl,446
r280
r339
rl,194
r72
r873
rl,259
r547
r665
r6l8
rl!9
441
r308
+
+
r590
r3,280
r4,362
r3,707
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ no, 599
+ r3,409
+ rlO,601
- r2,705
+ r9,593
+
198
+
524
+
39S
+
528
- 1,007
- 1,089
+ 1,361
+ 1,306
- 1,426
o
280
338
- 11 1
, 8
69
+
874
- 1,247
+
549
+
668
+
620
+
120
o
441
307
+
638
- 3,260
+ 4,383
+ 3,718
o 10,596
+ 3,418
+ 10,690
- 2,700
- 9,581
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(1957-59-100)
All industrial production
162.5 + 164.2 + rl65.8
(42)
(71)
(79)
Percent rising of 24 components 2
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products .
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay, glass, and lumber
Clay, glass, and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
+
+ r 166.0
143 '.3 + 148.5 + l^B\6
161.4 + 165.0 + rl66.1
- r!45.8
+ rl66.2
(58)
176»!6 + rl78!8 + rl79! 8
176i9
182.8 + 184.2 + 185.5+ 186.5
- 175.3 + 180.4 + 182.6 + 183.2
181.2 + 181.3 - 179.2
181.4
+
(71)
rl65.7 + 167.4
(62)
(75)
+
146.1 + 146.4 - U5!l
122.7 + r!23.4
123.9
+ r!45.2
- r!20.6
+
-
rl47". 5 + 150.0 +
rlU.7 + 119.4 +
r!84.4 +
rl89.1 +
r!80.3
r!85.4 +
+
r!50.4 +
pl!9.8
+
174il +
17819 - r!78!6
158.8 + 160.6 + 160.9
- r!77*.8
+ rl6l.l
+
+
rl78'.6
rl6l.4
r!8o!6
160.5
-
179 !
i
+ r 190.1
- r!81.7
+ 182.6
+ 182! 4
+ 191.4
- 180.5
+ 184.3
+ 179 ".7 +
+ 162.0
+
isi
159
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions
of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for the current month are rounded.
2
ItCII
DECEMBER 1968
93
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1968
Diffusion index components
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1-Continued
(1957-59=100)
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products.
- 146.3
+ 148.9
+ 114.6
+
+
+
147.2 +
149.6 +
118.0
r!48.8 +
r!51.4 115.8
r!50.9 +
150.4 _
107.0 +
z-151.4 +
r!49.0 +
r!09.5 +
+
r!52.0 PU9.5
p!09.8
145.3 +
P150.7
(NA)
(NA)
p!46
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
+ 159^5
- 145.8
+
+
161 ! +
l
149.8
162.9 +
149.6
164.1 o
149.5 +
rl64.1 +
151.1 -
rl65.9 +
r!50.0 +
+
pl66.4
r!50.4 +
P158
(NA)
p!51
Chemicals petroleum and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
+
+
-
+
+
+
216.6 +
139.9 +
214.3 +
r219.3 +
140.6
218.0 +
r222.4 139.5 +
r222.4 +
r22l!o +
r!40.7 +
r223.1 +
+
r222.4 +
x-142.3
P223.3
r212.2 +
p226.9
141.4
(NA)
p214
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Foods, beverages, and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products
+
-
135 '.3
112.1 +
13416 +
120.0 +
135 is
122.8 +
135 i +
l
123.4
135 i3 +
123.1 +
+
rl35! 4 +
p!24.0
r!34.9
r!35.8
(NA)
p!34
(NA)
(NA)
120.4 +
126.6 +
126.7
r!28.4 +
126.6 129.2 +
rl21.3 r!29.3 -
r!20.8
r!26.7 +
86,6 +
126.9
+
13li4
135.0 +
13oi8 +
136.9 +
134.1 +
137.1 +
134^5 137.5 -
r!27.7 r!36.5 -
p!26.8
P132.9
pll6
p!26
p!34
(NA)
(NA)
110.0 +
110.3
Minerals:
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
•
215.2
137.3
209.4
-
124.4
124. 8
+
-
139^9
137.1
+
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES2
(1957-59=100)
All manufacturing industries
+
109.1 o
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products
109.1 +
109.4 +
109.5 +
109.7
(68)
(61)
(64)
(73)
(70)
109.9 +
(80)
(73)
(80)
+
+
+
-
115.8 +
103.8 +
107.4 +
105.0
H7.0 +
104.0
107.8 +
104.9
117.2
103.9
108.3
104.8
+
+
+
o
119.2 +
104.1 +
108.4 +
104.8 o
120.5
104.2
108.7
104.8
+
+
o
+
122.6
104.4
108.7
106.7
+
+
+
o
124.9 +
104.5 +
108.9 +
106.7
126.8
104.7
109.2
106.0
+
+
+
131.0
107.1
115.5 o
116.8 +
124.1
106.7 +
115.5 +
117.0 +
123.6
107.5 +
115.7 o
117.2 +
+
+
+
+
121.9
108.8
117.5
118.2
113.0 +
103.0
104.3
1 18 o
1.
114.2 +
102.9
104.2 +
1 18 o
1.
114.3 o
102.7 o
104.5
1 18
1.
121.7
107.9 +
115.8 +
117.6 +
114.6
102.9 +
104.4
1 16 +
1.
121.5
108.4
116.7
117.9
+
+
o
+
122.3
107.6 +
115.7 H117.3 +
114.3 1102.7 +
104.2 •f
1 15 +
1.
114.5 +
103.1 +
104.1 +
1 19 +
1.
115.0
103.2
106.5
112.0
+
o
+
f
+
+
+
+
122.4
108.8
117.7
118.3
115.2
103.6
106.6
112.5
+
o
+
o
+
+
o
+
112.8
105.2
103.0
89.3
109.3
105.2
98.8
100.3
99.7
118.3
+
115.9
105.2
103.9
90.4
110.7
114.9
105.3
104.1
90.7
110.9
+
+
o
+
+
H5.3
105.4
104.1 +
92.5 +
1 10 +
1.
114.4
105.3
104.7
92.7
1 17
1.
+
+
+
+
+
114.6 +
104.7 +
103.8 +
89.9 +
110.1 +
114.7
105.4
104.6
93.0
1 18
1.
105.5
98.7
100.5 +
99.8 +
118.8
104.7 +
98.5
103.1
99.9 +
118.7 +
104.9 o
98.2
102.8
100.7
119.5 o
104.9 +
98.1
101.0
100.6 +
119.5 +
105.1 -I97.9
100.9
100.7 +
120.7 +
105.2
97.8
99.3
101.0
122.3
o
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
|+
113.6
104.9
103.5
89.7
109.4
•H
•f
4f
+
4-
-h
^
105.2
97.8
99.2
101.1
122.4
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
•'•Data are seasonally adjusted "by the source agency.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
94
DECEMBER 1968
!!€!»
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1968
Diffusion index components
May
April
July
June
August
Septemberr
Novemberp
October
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES 1
(Millions of dollars)
All retail sales
- 27,675
+ 28,132
(26)
+
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise) . . .
(61)
5,658
2,099
2,680
266
+
+
+
Variety stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Shoe stores
497
380
580
249
+
+
+
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumber yards building materials dealers
Hardware stores
837
422
932
259
+
4,744
373
2,041
934
554
+
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Ljquor stores
+
+
+
o
o
+
+
28,451 + 28,802
+
5,720
2,068
2,907
+
271 +
521
385
599 +
245 +
516
366
634
257
882
415
874
259
5,027
372
2,042
959
589
- 28,863
-r28,713
(35)
(63)
(59)
(63)
(65)
5,773 2,725 +
5,717
2,119
2,698
249
+ 29,037
+
5,779
278
+
+
2,139
2,861
280
+
+
+
+
527
380
662
278
o
+
+
519
380
665
292
+
+
+
+
884
429 +
904
266 +
859
446
899
282
855
475
924
273
•+
+
+
+
+
5,219 385 o
5,213
385
+
5,347
+
+
389
+
2,055 -
2,050
+
2,073
-
956 +
578 +
967
596
+
972
589
+
+
2,114
+
-
+
871
441
927
269
5,523
384
2,037
967
592
+
+
+
+
0
+
29,144
(70)
+
+
+
+
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
P519 +
P381 +
p654
p281 +
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
p849 +
p441 +
P926
p270
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
5,723 + P5,744
2,151 - P2,139
2,733 + p2,779
p282
268 +
492
367
647
278
+
- P5,223
P367
+ p2,039
+
P968
+
p602
+
+
(NA)
(NA)
NA
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data
2
are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
The diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately.
IICII
DECEMBER 1968
95
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Q CONSUMER PRICES
Year
and
month
133. Canada,
781. United
index of consumer
States, index of
consumer prices@ prices©
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
132. United King- 135. West Germany, 136. France,
index of consumer index of consumer
dom, index of
prices©
consumer prices© prices®
138. Japan, index
of consumer
prices©
137. Italy, index
of consumer
prices©
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
1967
January
February
March
115
115
115
117
117
118
129
129
129
123
123
123
141
141
142
153
154
154
137
138
138
April
May
June
115
116
116
119
119
120
130
130
130
124
124
124
142
142
142
154
153
152
138
138
139
July
August
September .
116
117
117
121
121
121
130
130
129
124
123
123
142
143
143
152
153
156
139
139
140
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
118
18
1
18
1
121
121
122
129
131
131
123
123
123
144
145
145
159
159
160
140
140
140
19
1
19
1
120
123
123
123
132
133
133
125
125
125
147
147
147
161
161
162
140
140
140
April
May
June
120
120
121
124
124
124
136
136
136
125
125
126
147
148
148
162
163
161
Ul
141
141
July
August
September
122
122
122
125
125
126
136
r!37
r!37
126
125
125
149
149
150
162
162
168
140
140
141
October . . .
November
December
1969
January
February
March
123
123
126
127
137
(NA)
126
(NA)
152
(NA)
rl66
167
141
(NA)
April
May
June
. . .
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
DECEMBER
1968
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Q INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
47. United
States, index of
industrial production
123. Canada,
index of industrial production
122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
126. France,
index of industrial production
125. West Germany, index of
industrial production
128. Japan, index of industrial
production
121.0ECD,1
European countries, index of
industrial production
127. Italy, index
of industrial production
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
1967
January
February
March
158
157
157
166
166
166
129
129
129
156
154
156
150
149
150
298
295
304
153
153
154
207
21
1
209
April . . .
May
June
157
156
156
168
167
168
130
128
129
153
152
156
149
150
148
305
312
317
154
153
154
212
212
21
1
July
August
September
156
158
157
169
170
170
129
129
128
156
156
159
154
152
155
321
327
336
155
154
156
21
1
198
21
1
October
November
December . . .
157
160
162
169
173
174
129
131
134
159
160
11
6
156
158
11
7
338
346
349
157
159
164
215
217
216
1968
January
February . .
March
161
162
163
172
172
173
133
134
135
162
164
167
157
159
165
347
354
351
160
11
6
164
218
220
222
April
May
June
162
164
rl66
175
176
179
133
135
136
167
•116
164
167
183
362
372
373
164
154
163
222
224
225
July
. ...
August
September . .
166
rl65
rl65
178
178
135
138
166
182
P176
382
381
r389
October...November
December .
rl66
pl67
(NA)
P395
Year
and
month
...
p!80
p!36
(NA)
(NA)
133
167
167
169
P177
(NA)
165
rl71
(NA)
222
p218
(NA)
(NA)
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
Juiv
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©.
Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•'•Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
DECEMBER 1968
97
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Qj STOCK PRICES
143. Canada, index
19. United States,
index of stock
of stock prices©
prices, 500 common
stocks ©
Year
and
month
(1957-59=100)
1967
January
February
March. .
(1957-59=100)
142. United Kingdom, index of
stock prices©
146. France, index
of stock prices©
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
145. West Germany, 148. Japan, index
of stock prices©
index of stock
prices©
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
147. Italy, index
of stock prices©
(1957-59=100)
171
177
181
175
180
182
157
156
159
99
103
98
148
156
159
223
229
228
142
141
127
April
May
June
184
188
185
185
186
186
167
171
172
96
99
98
158
155
154
223
231
231
129
132
130
July
August
September
189
192
194
189
194
198
176
177
187
94
99
no
156
175
182
231
215
209
129
133
139
October
November . .
December . . .
194
188
193
192
188
189
196
203
200
109
106
103
182
192
194
213
206
198
143
139
135
1968
January
February
March
193
184
181
189
177
11
7
202
208
213
107
104
13
1
205
209
207
203
208
209
134
130
133
April
May
June
194
198
204
183
185
187
235
246
252
17
1
11
1
107
216
219
226
220
229
235
136
135
133
July
August
September
203
199
205
194
192
198
265
272
279
103
105
105
230
231
224
243
254
276
136
138
136
October
November
December
210
214
203
204
270
273
p276
104
rplOl
228
p223
p2l6
275
264
p268
131
rp!25
P-^l
. .
p2!6
p211
p!02
1969
January
February
March.
April . .
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
DECEMBER 1968
BCII
APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability
Part 1. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes
Period
covered
Monthly series
Cl
C
1
T/C
Average duration of run
(ADR)
I/C
for
MCD
span
MCD
Cl
1
C
MCD
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Average workweek of production workers, mfg
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Nonagricultural placements, all industries
Avg. initial claims, State unemploy. insurance .... Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-June '68..
New orders durable goods industries
Jan. '59-Sep. '67 . .
Private nonfarm housing starts
*1.
*4.
5.
*6
7.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-Sep. '67..
'53-Sep. '67 . .
'53-June '68..
'53-Sep. '67..
'53-Sep. '67..
.46
2.08
5.32
3.48
7.24
.40
1.66
4.71
3.08
6.97
.19
1.00
2.16
1.37
1.48
2.14
1.66
2.17
2.24
4.71
3
2
3
3
5
.73
.95
.75
.68
.92
2.20
2.00
1.73
1.83
1.63
1.49
1.57
1.48
1.53
1.51
9.78
•9.78
12.57
9.74
8.67
4.05
3.65
3.95
3.89
2.78
6.42
8.47
4.55
.81
2.54
6.13
8.38
4.23
.60
2.24
1.61
1.05
1.37
.55
.95
3.81
7.96
3.09
1.09
2.35
5
6
4
2
3
.79
(*)
.84
.62
.83
1.57
1.52
1.80
2.89
1.85
1.45
1.47
1.53
1.57
1.56
9.26
13.54
10.28
7.33
8.38
3.44
3.00
3.25
4.61
3.16
19.62 19.11
.50
.61
2.46
1.65
1.32
1.04
3.66
4.01
1.92
.27
1.64
.79
1.45
9.95
1.89
1.01
1.30
2.53
6
3
2
2
3
C1)
.87
.56
.92
.86
1.53
2.51
2.44
2.55
1.93
1.44
1.68
1.60
2.15
1.57
8.80
6.06
9.78
11.73
13.21
2.37
4.13
4.38
3.80
3.16
8
9.
*10
*12.
13.
Construction contracts total value
Construction contracts, commercial and indus
Contracts and orders plant and equipment
Index of net business formation
New business incorporations
14.
*17.
*19.
*23.
24.
Liabilities of business failures
Jan.
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
Jan.
Stock prices, 500 common stocks ©
Jan.
Industrial materials prices ©
Jan.
New orders, machinery and equipment industries. . .
Jan.
'53-Sep. '67..
'53-Sep. '68..
'53-Sep. '67..
'53-Sep. '67..
'53-June '68..
*29.
*41
42.
46.
*47.
New building permits, private housing
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Help-wanted advertising
Industrial production
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-Sep. '67..
'53-May'68..
'53-Sep. '67..
'53-Sep. '67..
'53-Sep. '68..
3.90
.31
.35
2.96
.95
3.34
.14
.28
1.79
.51
1.66
.27
.20
2.22
.71
2.02
.52
1.39
.80
.72
3
1
2
1
1
.66
.52
.74
.80
.72
1.93
4.72
2.17
2.98
3.30
1.56
1.51
1.53
1.48
1.62
12.57
20.44
29.33
7.65
11.75
3.28
4.72
3.89
2.98
3.30
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., construction
*54. Sales of retail stores
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-Sep. '67..
'53-Sep. '67..
'53-Dec. '67..
'53-Dec. '67..
'53-Sep. '67..
.43
3.09
.54
.83
.89
.31
1.71
.26
.50
.76
.30
2.34
.48
.63
.47
1.03
.73
.53
.79
1.62
2
1
1
1
2
.52
.73
.53
.79
.93
2.75
3.74
5.42
2.84
2.15
1.54
1.74
1.58
1.53
1.59
11.73
12.57
25.57
13.77
14.67
5.00
3.74
5.42
2.84
3.72
55
*56.
58.
*62
65.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-Sep. '67..
'53-Sep. '68..
'53-Sep. '68..
'53-Sep. '68..
'53-June '68..
.17
1.00
.20
.59
.60
. 1
1
.72
.15
.46
.27
.13
.62
.13
.32
.52
.84
1.17
1.19
1.45
.51
1
2
2
2
1
.84
.60
.73
.91
.51
4.09
2.58
3.36
2.51
3.30
1.66
1.55
1.81
1.63
1.53
9.26
11.06
11.06
6.48
14.23
4.09
4.16
4.79
3.98
3.30
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
.82
.10
.80
.13
1
.13
13.54
1.64
25.14
13.54
'53-June '68..
'53-Sep. '68..
'53-Sep. '67..
'53-June '68..
1.69
.54
.97
1.38
1.33
.18
.50
.50
.93
.50
.82
1.23
1.43
.36
.62
.41
2
1
1
1
.75
.36
.62
.41
1.91
6.96
3.67
5.14
1.50
1.58
1.52
1.62
16.82
26.86
25.14
15.42
2.92
6.96
3.67
5.14
Jan. '53-Sep. '68. .
Jan. '53-Sep. '68. .
Jan. '53-Sep. '68. .
.95
.89
.89
.48
.43
.30
.77
.75
.83
.62
.57
.36
1
1
1
.62
.57
.36
3.92
4.37
6.96
1.54
1.48
1.52
10.44
17.09
20.89
3.92
4.37
6.96
1.81
1.62
1.36
1.49
1.62
11.06
11.80
12.80
9.07
11.80
4.79
3.41
2.57
2.77
3.48
1.47
1.46
1.43
1.42
1.71
8.50
9.33
9.78
10.28
8.55
2.06
1.96
2.59
2.22
4.65
9.40
1.88
1.68
6.96
1.63 11.06
1.76
8.17
5.63
1.75
1.54 152.00
4.04
3.72
4.48
4.45
3.53
50.67
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
49. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
Wholesale prices industrial commodities (u)
Manufacturing and trade sales
Wholesale prices, manufactured goods ©
Labor cost per unit of output manufacturing
Book value, mfrs.' inventories of finished goods. . .
66. Consumer installment debt
69. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories. .
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj
820. 5 coincident indicators
830. 6 lagging indicators
Jan.
. Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
58.
502.
506.
508.
512.
Wholesale prices, manufactured goods @
Exports, excluding military aid2
Export orders, durables except motor vehicles ....
Export orders, nonelectrical machinery.
General imports 2
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-Sep. '68. .
'53-Oct. '67- •
'63-May'68..
'57-May'68..
'53-Oct. '67..
.20
3.58
10.41
6.62
2.87
.15
3.36
10.28
6.39
2.69
.13
.90
1.13
1.79
.87
1.19
3.74
9.13
3.57
3.09
2
4
6
4
4
.73
.90
C)
.90
.73
3.36
1.82
1.42
1.60
1.79
616
621.
625.
647
Defense Department obligations total
Defense Department obligations, procurement
Military contract awards in U.S
New orders defense products industries
July
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-Sep. '67..
'56-Sep. '67..
'53-Sep. '67. .
'53-June '68. .
'53-Sep. '68. .
13.58
26.22
20.91
20.01
.29
13.32
26.08
20.82
19.93
.24
1.37
2.00
2.61
1.65
.13
9.74
13.04
7.98
12.04
1.82
6
6
6
6
3
(X)
(X)
(X)
C1)
.76
1.44
1.43
1.48
1.52
2.41
751.
752.
781
782.
783.
784.
Wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds © . . Jan. '53-Sep. '68..
Wholesale prices, farm products ©
Jan. '53-Sep. '68..
Consumer prices all items @
Jan. '53-Sep. '68..
Jan. '53-Sep. '68. .
Consumer prices, food ©
.
Jan. '56-Sep. '68..
Consumer prices, commodities less foods ©
Consumer prices, services ©
Jan. '56-Sep. '68..
.73
1.46
.20
.47
.22
.26
.61
1.26
. 1
1
.35
.13
.07
.33
.54
.16
.26
.16
.26
1.84
2.34
.69
1.35
.80
.27
3
3
1
2
1
1
.81 2.24
2.04
.95
4.48
.69
3.08
.96
.80
3.53
.27 50.67
1
See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of Part 1.
99
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 1. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Average duration of run
(ADR)
I/C
Period
covered
Monthly series
Cl
1
C
I/C
for
MCD
span
MCD
Cl
1
C
MCD
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
851
852.
853.
855.
856.
859.
Ratio inventories to sales mfg. and trade
Jan.
Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, durable goods . Jan.
Ratio, production of bus. equip, to consumer goods. Jan.
Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfilled to unemployed Jan.
Real avg. hourly earnings, production workers, mfg. Jan.
Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers
Jan.
'53- May '68..
'53-Apr. '68..
'53-June'68..
'53-Sep. '67..
'53-Dec. '67 . .
1.01
1.87
.95
5.54
.39
.88
1.62
.62
3.33
.36
.46
.88
.63
4.15
.18
'64-Dec. '67 . .
.32
.28
.89
1.04
.81
1.72
1.19
1.93
1.84
.99
.80
2.03
2
3
I
1
3
.98
.74
.99
.80
.77
2.83
2.13
2.72
3.26
3.14
1.55
1.63
1.62
1.52
1.56
9.20
12.20
8.81
8.38
10.53
4.57
4.31
2.72
3.26
7.08
.13
2.04
3
.74
1.96
1.57
11.75
3.21
.83
.98
.67
1.59
1.07
.56
.37
.55
.63
.62
1.49
2.63
1.21
2.53
1.71
2
3
2
3
2
.82
.94
.56
.68
.87
3.98
2.38
4.29
2.06
3.45
1.54
1.45
1.41
1.43
1.48
16.27
8.80
10.35
19.89
16.00
7.74
4.14
6.48
4.32
9.21
F. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
121.
122
123.
125
126
OECD European countries, industrial production , . Jan. '53-Dec. '67 ..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 . .
United Kingdom industrial production
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Canada, industrial production
West Germany industrial production
Jan. '53-Dec. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 . .
France industrial production
127
128
132.
133.
135
Italy industrial production
Japan industrial production
United Kingdom, consumer prices®
Canada, consumer prices©
West Germany consumer prices (u)
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'67..
'67..
'67 . .
'67..
'67..
1.43
1.69
.45
.25
.32
1.28
1.17
.49
.31
.36
.72
1.23
.27
.19
.22
1.78
.95
1.82
1.66
1.65
2
1
3
2
3
.98
.95
.73
.93
.75
2.79
3.59
6.29
9.26
8.00
1.66
1.39
1.68
2.00
1.98
29.33
13.54
14.67
11.00
11.73
4.07
3.59
8.70
12.50
11.60
136
137.
138
142.
143
France consumer prices(u)
Italy, consumer prices©
Japan consumer prices®
United Kingdom, stock prices©
Canada stock prices©
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'67..
'67..
'67..
'67 . .
'67 . .
.52
.33
.81
3.13
2.77
.44
.35
.74
2.49
2.13
.39
.31
.38
1.68
1.61
1.14
1.14
1.95
1.48
1.33
2
2
3
2
2
.59
.61
.69
.90
.87
7.04
19.56
3.09
2.63
3.26
1.54
1.80
1.64
1.71
1.78
8.80
8.38
10.35
8.00
11.00
7.61
25.00
6.96
3.72
3.98
145
146
147.
148.
West Germany stock prices® .
France stock prices @
Italy stock prices©
Jaoan. stock Dricesfu}
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'67..
'67..
'67..
'67..
3.34
4.00
3.78
3.60
2.03
3.35
3.00
2.44
2.37
1.87
1.89
2.29
.86
1.79
1.59
1.07
1
3
3
2
.86
.66
.72
.64
3.52
2.48
2.44
3.26
1.85
1.68
1.85
1.68
7.33
7.33
8.80
7.04
3.52
4.14
5.12
4.49
. .
x
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators.
@ Measures are based on unadjusted data.
Not shown
2
when MCD is "6" or more.
Measures based on data adjusted for abnormalities during the periods December 1962-March 1963 and
December 1964-May 1965 due to effects of strikes.
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1
The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business
Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper
57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957
(reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957).
"Cl" is the average month-to-month percentage change,
without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series
(i.e., the series after adjustment for measurable seasonal,
trading-day, and holiday variations).
"I" is the same for the irregular component, obtained by
dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted
series.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth,
flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small for
smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving
MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the
irregular component and the cyclica 1 component overl-month
spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar.,
Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 12-month spans. Averages, without
regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each
span. MCD is the shortest span in months for which the
100
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
cyclical component is larger than the average percentage
change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component,
and remains so.
Thus, it indicates the point at which
fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series became dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series
with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small
values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally
adjusted series. It is shown for 1-month spans andjpr spans
of the period of MCD. When MCD is "6", no I/C ratio is
shown for the MCD period.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations.
When there is no change between 2 months, a
change in the same direction as the preceding change is
assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C,
and the MCD curve. The MCD curve is an unweighted
moving average (with the number of terms equal to MCD)
of the seasonally adjusted series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART I--Continued
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1month intervals in a random series, the expected value of
the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36
and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving average (MCD) of a random series, the
expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of
CI is 1.73 for the series on average weekly initial claims,
State unemployment insurance (series 5). This indicates
that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on
the average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a
random series. The ADR measures shown in the next two
columns, 1.48 for I and 12.57 for C, suggest that the seasonally
adjusted series has been successfully separated into an
essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom)
component.
Finally, ADR is 3.95 for the MCD moving
average. This indicates that a 2-month moving average of
the seasonally adjusted series (2 months being the MCD
span) reverses direction, on the average, about every 4
months. The increase in the ADR from 1.48 for CI to 3.95
for the MCD moving average indicates that, for this series,
month-to-month changes in the MCD moving average usually
reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements of the series,
whereas the month-to-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 2. Monthly Series: Average Actual Changes
Period
covered
Monthly series
Unit of
measure
CI
1
C
f/c
MCD
I/C
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
1
C
MCD
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
2. Accession rate manufacturing
Per 100
employees .
Jan. '53-Sep. '68. . . do
Jan. '53-June'68. Ann. rate,
bil. dol. ...
Jan. '53-June'68. Bil. dol
Jan. '53-Sep. '68.
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing
20. Change in book value, manufacturers'
inventories of materials, supplies.
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. .
26. Buying policy, production materials, commitments 60 days or longer (u)
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories .
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries ©
33 Change in mortgage debt
Jan. '53-Sep. '68.
Jan. '53-Sep. '68.
Jan. '53-Sep. '68.
Jan. '55- Sep. '67.
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
Jan. '53-Sep. '68.
39. Delinquency rate, installment credit loans2 . . Jan. '53-Aug.'68.
40. Unemployment rate, married males
Nov. '54-Sep. '68.
*43. Unemployment rate, total
Jan. '53-Sep. '68.
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Jan. '53-Sep. '68.
45. Average weekly insured unemploy. rate
Jan. '53-Sep. '6885. Change in money supply
Jan. '53-Apr. '68.
*113. Change in consumer installment debt
114.
115.
116.
117.
118.
Treasury bill rate®
Treasury bond yields ©
Corporate bond yields ©
Municipal bond yields @
Mortgage yields, residential ©
.17
.15
.06
.06
3.08
2.43
4
3
.81 2.07
.85 2.41
1.55
1.57
11.75
7.52
3.56
5.03
1.41
.48
1.35
.45
.29
.13
4.60
3.54
6
4
(x)
.96
1.57
1.70
1.47
1.61
6.85
8.04
3.05
3.19
2.86
2.62
2.53
3
.80
1.86
1.63
8.95
3.65
3.72
3.62
4.74
5
.98
1.48
1.41
6.27
2.52
Pet. reporting
Ann. rate,
bil. dol. ...
3.43
2.76
1.49
2
.97
3.03
1.86
8.17
3.74
1.34
1.26
3.43
3
.98
1.49
1.35
10.13
2.94
Pet. reporting
Percent
... do
... do
...do
.-•do
3.06
.05
.15
.18
.07
.16
2.57
.04
.13
.15
.06
.09
.02
.08
.10
.05
.12
1.91
1.78
1.60
1.50
1.22
.72
3
3
2
2
2
1
.78
.75
.85
.80
.61
.72
2.41
2.49
3.25
2.61
4.18
4.82
1.65
1.77
1.48
1.52
1.57
1.79
7.83
7.67
7.90
7.52
6.48
7.52
3.72
4.09
4.02
3.82
5.67
4.82
2.87
75.38
.37
46.88
7.83
1.61
6
2
C1)
.96
1.40
2.07
1.36
1.59
10.76
9.26
2.87
3.13
2.38
.48
4.97
6
C1)
1.52
1.41
7.04
2.78
2.72
.78
.28
.30
9.78
2.64
6
3
C 1 ) 1.56
.90
1.64
1.56
1.48
10.78
11.00
3.83
3.16
.10
.05
.10
.07
.02
.10
.04
.06
.04
.03
1.00
1.47
1.65
1.82
.53
2
3
3
3
1
.62
.68
.71
.83
.53
2.61
2.72
2.32
2.58
8.55
1.81
1.96
1.71
1.86
1.94
6.27
7.83
10.44
8.55
7.23
3.74
4.89
3.87
4.04
8.55
55.59
15.55
3.58
4
.86
1.62
1.57
9.32
3.55
Pet. reporting
Ann. rate,
bil. dol. ...
Jan. '53-Sep. '67.
Ann. rate,
2.85
percent
Mil. dol
93.44
Ann. rate,
percent. . • • 2.42
Ann. rate,
bil. dol. ...
2.77
...do
.86
Jan. '53-Sep. '68.
Jan. '53-Sep. '68Jan. '53-Sep. '68.
Jan. '53-Sep. '68.
Jan. '53-Sep. '68.
Percent
...do.....
... do
...do
... do
Jan. '53-Oct.'67.
Mil. dol
93. Free reserves
Jan. '53-Sep. '67.
98. Change in money supply and time deposits. . .Jan. '53-Apr. '68 112. Change in business loans
.18
.16
Aug. '59-Sep.'67-
.15
.06
.1
1
.08
.04
1.03
.76
1.85
.37
1.35
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
500. Merchandise trade balance3.
57.74
x
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators.
©Measures are based on unadjusted data.
Not shown
when MCD is "6" or more.
Bimonthly series; average changes, MCD, and average durations of run are for bimonthly spans.
Measures based on data adjusted for abnormalities during the periods December 1962-March 1963 and December 1964-May 1965 due to
effects of strikes.
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2
These measures are computed by an additive method to
avoid the distortion caused by zero and negative data.
Thus, "Ciw is the average month-to-month change in the
seasonally adjusted series.
This average is computed
without regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of
measure as the series itself.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, which is
determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the
seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures have the same meaning as in part 1.
101
B. Current Adjustment Factors
19 67
196 8
Series
Nov.
Dec.
Jan=
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Aug.
July
5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment
insurance
13. New business incorporations1
101.9 138.5 145.8 112.7 96.0 94.9 79.3 80.9 107.9
87.3 96.5 118.7 99 4 108 6 105 3 106 1 97 3 101 0
14. Liabilities of business failures
18. Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing2
81.8 101.5
100.3
4 Nonagricultural placements all industries1
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies3.
508. Index of export orders nonelectrical machinery
D34. Profits, manufacturing ( FNCB)6
79.4
84 1 83 5
-129
+279
-285
92 2
90 9 100 1 102 2 107 6 112 8 104 2 100 9
107.2
-388
Oct.
84.1
95 0
73.6
89 5
84.1 101.8
99 6 87 3
138.5
96 5
#n 9
100.3
im s
93 1 120 5 103 4
96.3
85 0
88 7 103 4 111 7 106 8 105 9 110 1 117 0 116 1
+50
110.1
+13
92.6
+36
+262
+32
QQ
-1
91.8
+148
+36
—64
1 pin 7
Q7 7
q-i /
Nov.
q/
Dec.
p
7Q <i
1 9Q
1 070
Q9 /^
Qpl
Q
,
99.0
99.0
99.9 101.5
79.0 101.6
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
621. Defense Department obligations procurement
112. Change in business loans5
49. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
98 2 110 1 99 6 97 3 119 8
97.9
105.4
96.6
37. Purchased materials, percent of companies reporting
higher inventories
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total installment
loans4
616. Defense Department obligations total
625. Military contract awards in U S
89 6
Sept
99.2
75.6
99.4 101.1
99.6 99.5 101.8
65.1 100.9 103.6 100.4 204.0
99 2
62.8
99 1 100 3
98 1 109 3
99 3
99 0
99 6
79 0
101 5
101 6
87.6
80.2
91.5
93.0
79.2
80.4
98 0
96.8
97 o 107 3
90.5 109 4
98 3
95 4
87 6
80 2
98 1
91 5
99.4 100.3 100.1 99.9 100.4 100.0 99.7 99 6 99 8
85.5 95.3 108.4 119.2 102 5 99 9 111 7 112 1 105 9
99 7
94 6
100 6
80 7
98.1
91.5
99.8 100.6 100.1
94.6 80.7 84.1
99.3
94.2
99.6
88.6
91.8 151 9
91.8 188.0
100.2 100.3 103.8 102.1 107.4 100 6 100 3 100 2
-15
+17
107.2
93 1 94 1 93 9 104 1 100 2
-9
+6
• ••
100 3
•.•
NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census or the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever
they are published. For adescription of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census Method
II Seasonal Adjustment Program.
•'•Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors due to
rounding.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly
totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census
Method II seasonal adjustment program.
^Bimonthly series. Data are for even-numbered months (February, April, June, etc.).
5
Factors apply to monthly totals before month-to-month changes are computed.
6
l-quarter diffusion index:
Figures are placed on the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed
and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, are
subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.
102
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ® (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Quarterly
Quarterly
Annual
Year
II
Year
IV
III
Annual
1
II
IV
III
'
520.
1946...
1947...
1948...
U.S. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS! LIQUIDITY
BALANCE BASIS (MIL. DOL.)
. .
.
U.S. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS! OFFICIAL
SETTLEMENTS BASIS (MIL. DOL.)
TOTAL
993
4,210
817
1946...
1947...
1948...
...
-660
485
136
-3,489
-8
1949...
1950...
1951...
II!
Ill
III
III
II
I
II
I
. .
.
...
522.
TOTAL
II
I
..
.
II
I
1949...
1950. .
.
1951...
-427
-771
-641
-33
1952...
1953...
1954...
381
-665
-371
-427
-433
-173
-717
-620
-479
-443
-466
-518
-1,206
-2,184
-1,541
1952...
1953...
1954...
III
III
III
III
1955...
1956...
1957...
48
-516
543
-470
-208
147
-331
-386
387
-489
137
-499
-1,242
-973
578
1955...
1956...
1957...
III
III
III
III
-963
-612
-1,203
-3,365
-3,870
-3,901
1958...
1959...
1960...
-1,761
311
:::
1958...
1959...
1960...
-652
-975
-838
-891
-1,071
-850
-859
-1,212
-1,010
-327
-634
-1,007
-1,435
-3,403
1961...
1962...
1963...
-529
-8ti7
-1,219
64
-318
-1,164
-715
-437
-222
-1,191
-642
-65
-2,371
-2,204
-2,670
1961...
1962...
1963...
-803
-419
-1,100
670
-324
-900
-548
-1,049
-137
-666
-910
126
-1,347
-2,702
-2,011
1964. ..
1965...
1966...
-307
-782
-630
-570
256
-93
-638
-603
-301
-1,285
-206
-333
-2,800
-1,335
-1,357
1964...
1965...
1966...
-279
-783
-409
-341
320
-116
-380
21
692
-564
-847
99
-1,564
-1,289
266
570.
GOVERNMENT GRANTS AND CAPITAL TRANSACTIONS!
NET (MIL. DOL.)
1946...
1947...
1948...
. .
.
1949...
1950...
1951...
in
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
. .
.
..
.
..
.
. .
.
. .
.
..
.
:::
...
:::
..
.
...
..
.
:::
...
TOTAL
575.
BANKING AND OTHER CAPITAL TRANSACTIONS! NET
(MIL. DOL.)
-5,537
-6,507
-5,017
1946...
1947...
1948...
..
.
-5,800
-3,642
-2,962
1949...
1950...
1951...
..
.
..
.
*..
..
.
36
-338
-163
-2,666
-2,264
-1,683
1952..*
1953...
1954...
..
.
..
.
..
.
•••
-180
247
-765
-2,366
-2,537
-2,681
1955...
1956...
1957...
-2,762
-2,187
-2,956
1958...
1959...
1960...
:::
:::
-86
-319
-683
-539
-424
-301
-1,626
-356
36
-565
-373
-293
-242
-526
-42
-554
-1,598
-908
-1,352
-659
692
419
-931
-79
238
-790
266
438
-3,261
814
1,264
-701
-597
1961.. .
1962...
1963...
-913
-867
-922
-48
-811
-1,132
-906
-297
-580
-1,064
-419
-820
-2,929
-2,393
-3,453
1961...
1962...
1963...
-343
-609
-926
-947
-1,054
-725
-815
-783
-983
-915
-772
-3,377
-3,549
-3,731
1964...
1965...
1966...
-881
- 65
169
Note:
-743
-872
-1,122
-519
-599
-564
::i
-700
1964...
1965. .
.
1966. .
.
-279
-276
-128
:::
1958...
1959...
1960...
-960
TOTAL
9
The series on this page were introduced in the November 1 6 issue.
9 8
(DECEMBER 1968)
103
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol (u) (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Quarterly
Quarterly
Year
1
II
III
IV
250. BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES! EXCLUDING
M I L I T A R Y GRANTS ( M I L . DOL. )
1946...
1947...
1948...
...
1949...
1950...
1951...
...
1952...
1953.,.
1954...
...
...
;."!
...
...
1955...
1956...
1957...
...
...
...
...
;;;
.. .
;:•;
Annual
TOTAL
Year
1
II
III
IV
525. NET CAPITAL MOVEMENTS PLUS UNILATERAL TRANSFERS! L I Q U I D I T Y BALANCE BASIS ( M I L . DOL.)
7,744
11,529
6,440
1946...
1947...
1948...
...
6,149
1,779
3,671
1949...
1950...
1951...
...
2,226
386
1,828
1952...
1953...
1954...
...
2,009
3,967
5,729
1955...
1956...
1957...
..,
...
••*
Annual
TOTAL
-6*751
-7,319
-5,623
-6,013
-5,268
-3,679
...
...
...
...
...
...
*..
...
-3,432
-2,570
-3,369
MI
-3,251
-4,940
-5,151
:•
»*.
.. ,
1958...
1959...
I960...
555
771
1,153
1,492
2,206
147
3,970
1958...
1959...
1960...
...
-1,393
-1,621
-2,163
-2,695
-5,571
-4,017
-7,871
1961...
1962...
1963...
It603
1,101
1,144
1,296
1,401
1,529
1,253
1,325
1,389
1,304
1,156
1,750
5,458
4,985
5,812
1961...
1962..,.
1963...
-2,132
-1,908
-2,363
-1,232
-1,719
-2,693
-1,968
-1,762
-1,611
-2,495
-1,798
-1,815
-7,829
-7,189
-8,482
1964...
1965...
1966...
2,216
1,546
1,508
1,942
2,028
1,309
2,148
1,831
1,134
2,101
1,496
1,130
8,409
6,901
5,080
1964...
1965...
1966...
-2,523
-2,328
-2,138
-2,512
-1,772
-1,402
-2,786
-2,434
-n,435
-3,386
-1,702
-1,463
-11,209
-8,236
-6,437
527. NET CAPITAL MOVEMENTS PLUS UNILATERAL TRANSFERS! O F F I C I A L SETTLEMENTS BASIS ( M I L . DOL.)
1947...
1948...
1949...
...
1950...
1951...
1952...
• ••
TOTAL
530. L I Q U I D L I A B I L I T I E S TO ALL FOREIGNERS— AMOUNT
OUTSTANDING AT THE END OF PERIOD ( M I L . DOL.)
...
1947...
1948..,
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
...
...
...
1953...
1954...
1955...
...
...
1953...
1954...
1955...
...
1956...
1957...
1958...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1956...
1957.,,
1958...
•• .
., .
...
...
••*
...
END OF YEAR
VALUE
...
...
...
5,939
6,858
6,988
•. .
...
...
...
...
*. .
8,719
8,760
10,381
•.•
..
.
...
...
...
...
...
• ••
•.,
...
.. ,
•* .
11,309
12,370
13,430
...
15,272
15,859
16,932
MI
1959...
1960...
1961...
-882
-2,406
-1,405
-626
-2,160
-1,801
-2,927
- 1,970
-7,374
—6,803
1959...
1960...
1961...
20,446
21,681
21,121
21,937
21,391
22,865
21,523
23,288
19,767
21,523
23,288
1962...
1963...
1964...
-1,520
-2,244
-2,495
- 1,725
-2,429
-2,283
-2,374
-1,526
-2,528
-2,066
-1,624
-2,665
-7,685
-7,823
-9,971
1962...
1963...
1964...
23,668
25,146
26,610
24,150
26,187
26,877
23,706
26,182
27,445
23,959
26,252
28,881
23,959
26,252
28,881
1965...
1966...
-2,329
-1,917
- 1,708
-1,425
-1,810
-442
-2,343
- 1,031
-8,190
-4,815
1965..,
1966...
28,821
29,200
28,497
29,225
29,059
29,444
28,994
29,783
28,994
29,783
Note:
The series on this page were introduced in the November 1 6 issue.
98
(DECEMBER 1968)
104
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol <§) (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Quarterly
Quarterly
Year
1
II
III
IV
532. LIQUID AND CERTAIN NONLIQUID LIABILITIES FOR
FOREIGN OFFICIAL AGENCIES — AMOUNT OUTSTANDING
AT THE END OF PERIOD (MIL. DOL . )
1947. .
.
1948...
1949. . .
1950. .
.
1951.. .
1952...
1953. .
.
1954...
1955. ..
1956. ..
1957. ..
1958...
..
.
..
.
..
.
END OF YEAR
VALUE
...
..
.
..
.
..
.
..
.
Annual
..
.
..
.
..
.
:::
..
.
Year
1
II
III
Annual
IV
END OF YEAR
VALUE
53U. U.S. OFFICIAL RESERVE ASSETS — RESERVE
POSITION AT THE END OF PERIOD (MIL. DOL.)
1947...
1948...
14..
99.
1950...
1951...
1952...
..
.
1953...
1954...
1955...
..
.
..
.
24,023
25,759
26,025
..
.
..
.
..
.
..
.
•• •
•• .
•• .
•••
..
.
:::
...
..*
...
24,267
24,300
24,715
23,459
22,979
22,797
23,666
24,831
22,539
..
.
1956...
1957...
1958...
11,874
12,615
11,874
12,615
1959...
1960...
1961...
21,345
18*988
21,170
19,308
20,430
19*521
19,359
18,753
21,504
19,359
18,753
13,038
15,268
15,846
13,784
15,418
16,811
13,784
15,418
16,811
1962.. .
1963...
1964...
18,326
17,188
16,894
18,490
17,065
16,591
17,609
16,838
16,521
17,220
16,843
16,672
17,220
16,843
16,672
16,028
15. R 5 3
16,878
16,044
16,878
16,044
1965...
1966...
15,830
15,026
15,762
14,958
15,721
15,450
14,882
15,450
14,882
252. GOODS AND SERVICES EXPORTS t EXCEPT TRANSFERS
UNDER MILITARY GRANTS (MIL. DOL.)
TOTAL
...
..
.
..
.
..
.
1959...
I960. .
.
1961. ..
10,476
11,926
10,978
11,631
11,394
12,558
1962. . .
1963...
1964. . .
12,078
14,123
14,990
12,654
15,042
15,240
1965. . .
1966. .
.
15,929
16,060
15,792
16,361
1946. . .
1947. .
.
1948. . .
1949. .
.
1950. .
.
1 9 51 . .
.
..
.
..
.
1952...
1953. .
.
1954. . .
1955 . .
.
1956. .
.
1 9 <; 7 . . .
1958. . .
1959. .
.
I960...
r 62. . .
1 6 3. .
.
1 - 64. .
.
r 65...
1' 66. ..
..
.
..
.
..
.
..
.
..
.
253.
..
.
:::
14,876
GOODS AND SERVICES IMPORTS
(MIL. DOL. )
14,735
19, 737
16,789
1946...
1947...
1948...
..
.
15,770
13,807
18,744
1949...
1950...
1951...
..
.
17,992
16,947
17,759
1952...
1953...
1954...
19,804
23,595
26,481
..
.
..
.
..
.
1955...
1956...
1957...
..
.
..
.
..
.
6,991
8,208
10,349
..
.
..
.
9,621
12,028
15,073
..
.
15,766
16,561
15,931
..
.
..
.
..
.
..
.
..
.
TOTAL
..
.
..
.
..
.
17,795
19,628
20,752
5,837
5,520
20,861
23,342
23,355
5,605
6,337
6,593
5,933
6,367
6,791
6,069
6,461
6,827
23,151
25,358
26,620
7,093
8,171
9,336
7,225
8,253
9,778
7,458
8,624
9,929
28,688
32,295
38,063
..
.
:::
:::
6,534
6,792
6,990
7,012
23,067
23,489
27,325
1958...
1959...
I960...
5,979
6,021
7 151
7 297
7 555
6 901
7 738
« 122
7 186
7 692
8 180
7,373
7,617
8,577
28,609
30,343
32,432
1961...
1962...
1963...
5,548
6,196
6,411
'-)
13!
8 794
10 52d
9 035
10 199
1C 645
9 373
10 034
10 912
9,559
10,120
11,059
37,098
39,196
43, 142
1964...
1965...
1966.. .
6,915
7,248
9,020
..
.
..
.
The series on this page were introduced in the November 1968 issue.
(DECEMBER 1968)
105
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ® (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Quarterly
Quarterly
Year
1
II
Annual
III
IV
536. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS ( ADJUSTED) t EXCEPT
TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS (MIL . DOL. )
1946...
1947...
1948...
...
1949...
1950...
1951...
..
.
1952...
1953...
1954...
...
1955...
1956...
1957...
...
...
. .
.
...
..
.
..
.
...
. .
.
!".'.
..
.
...
Year
...
:::
Annual
1
II
III
IV
537. MERCHANDISE IMPORTSi
ADJUSTED (MIL. DOL.)
TOTAL
TOTAL
...
11,707
16,015
13,193
1946...
1947...
1948...
12,149
10,117
14,123
1949...
1950...
1951...
...
13,319
12,281
12,799
1952...
1953...
1954...
...
. .
.
..
.
14,280
17,379
19,390
1955...
1956...
1957...
:::
. .
.
:::
...
1958...
1959...
1960...
3,811
3,854
3,646
3,433
12,952
15,310
14,744
5,073
5,979
7,563
..
.
..
.
Il
l
..
.
..
.
6,879
9,108
11,202
. .
.
. .
.
11,838
10,990
10,354
..
.
11,527
12,804
13,291
1958...
1959...
1960...
4,641
4,874
4,992
4,980
16,264
16,295
19,487
1961...
1962...
1963...
5,054
5,035
5,015
4,765
5,288
5,548
4,998
5,289
5,620
5,127
4,994
5,888
19,944
20,606
22,071
1961...
1962...
1963...
3,390
3,960
4,052
3,433
4,074
4,213
3*306
4,109
4,365
3,893
4,076
4,384
14,522
16,219
17,014
1964...
1965...
1966. .
.
6,186
5,628
7,188
6,154
6,880
7, 179
6,370
6,811
7,369
6,587
6,925
7,440
25,297
26,244
29,176
1964...
1965...
1966...
4,405
4,681
6,036
4,592
5,485
6,263
4,736
5,568
6,567
4,915
5,782
6,675
18,648
21,516
25,541
540.
INCOME ON U.S. INVESTMENTS ABROADt SALES UNDER
MILITARY CONTRACTS i AND OTHER SERVICES EXPORTS,
TOTAL (MIL. DOL .)
1946...
1947...
1948...
...
. .
.
3,028
3,722
3,596
1946...
1947...
1948...
...
...
3,621
3,690
4,621
1949...
195C...
1951...
...
4,673
4,666
4,960
1952...
1953...
1954...
Ill
II
I
...
. .
.
5,524
6,216
7,091
1955...
1956...
1957.. .
;.!
..!
..
.
1952...
1953...
1954...
. .
.
1955...
1956, . .
1957...
. .
.
541. INCOME OF FOREIGNERS ON INVESTMENTS IN THE
U.S.i MILITARY EXPENDITURES ABROADt AND OTHER
SERVICES IMPORTSi TOTALi (MIL. DOL.)
. .
.
. .
.
1949...
1950...
1951...
TOTAL
...
. .
.
!!!
...
...
. .
.
TOTAL
1,918
2,229
2,786
..
.
. .
.
:::
:::
...
..
.
...
4,928
5,571
5,577
...
6,268
6,824
7,461
..
.
:::
...
2,742
2,920'
3,871
1958. ..
1959...
1960. ..
1,893
1,918
1,998
2,032
6,803
7,194
7,838
1958...
1959...
196C...
2, 168
2,167
2,191
2,087
7,909
8,032
8,611
1961...
1962...
1963...
2,097
2,262
2,540
2,136
2,450
2,574
2,188
2,403
2,560
2,246
2,623
2,689
8,665
9,737
10,361
1961...
1962...
1963...
2,158
2,236
2,359
2,172
2,263
2,380
2,127
2,258
2,426
2,176
2,385
2,443
8,629
9,139
9,606
1964...
1965...
1966...
2,945
3,166
3,340
2,881
3,319
3,466
3,003
3,273
3,543
2,972
3,195
3,619
11,801
12,952
13,966
1964...
1965...
1966...
2,510
2,567
2,984
2,501
2,686
3,073
2,489
2,685
3,211
2,543
2,842
3,254
10,040
10,779
12,522
Note:
The series on this page were introduced in the November 1 6 issue.
9 8
(DECEMBER 1968)
106
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in whith
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ® (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Quarterly
Quarterly
Year
1
II
Annual
III
542. INCOME ON U.S. INVESTMENTS
(MIL. DOL. ;
1946...
1947...
1948. .
.
..
.
Year
1
IV
ABROAD
TOTAL
II
III
543. INCOME OF FOREIGNERS ON INVESTMENTS
(MIL. DOL. )
Annual
IV
IN THE U.S.
TOTAL
..
.
1949...
1950...
1951...
..
.
1952...
1953...
1954...
..
.
..
.
1955...
1956...
1957. .
.
..
.
..
.
..
.
..
.
772
1,102
1,340
1946.. .
1947...
1948...
1,395
1,593
1,882
..
.
1949...
1950...
1951...
1,828
1,910
2,227
1952...
1953.. .
1954.. .
..
.
421
461
420
2,444
2,662
2,817
1955.. .
1956...
1957...
..
.
489
568
639
2,845
3,043
3,349
1958...
1959...
I960...
212
245
280
..
.
..
.
333
369
414
1958. ..
1959...
1960...
806
806
847
281
271
264
248
669
828
1,063
1961...
1962...
1963...
967
1,001
1,155
944
1,091
1,112
999
1,082
1,157
1,032
1,244
1,225
3,942
4,419
4,649
1961...
1962...
1963...
243
270
310
246
276
319
254
281
336
265
285
358
1,007
1, 110
1,325
1964. .
.
1965...
1966...
1,356
1,507
1,478
1,330
1,569
1,537
1,335
1,473
1,587
1,316
1,345
1,648
5,386
5,893
6,25?
1964...
1965...
1966...
357
400
476
358
430
479
361
430
556
38C
469
563
1,456
1,729
2,074
892
544. RECEIPTS FROM FOREIGN TRAVELERS IN THE U.S.
(MIL. DOL. )
1946...
1947. .
.
1948...
1949...
1950. .
.
1 1 5 1. .
.
1952...
1953. . .
1954. . .
1955...
1956.. .
1957. ..
TOTAL
545. PAYMENTS BY U.S. TRAVELERS ABROAD
( MIL. DOL. ;
TOTAL
1946...
1947...
1948...
..
.
392
419
473
1949. . .
1950.. .
1951...
..
.
700
754
757
..
.
550
574
595
1952...
1953...
1954. . .
..
.
840
929
1,009
..
.
:::
...
...
271
364
334
654
705
785
1955. .
.
1956...
1957...
..
.
1,153
1,275
1,372
..
.
..
.
:::
..
.
..
.
..
.
462
573
631
..
.
1958. .
.
1959. . .
1960. .
.
224
227
237
231
625
902
919
1958.. .
1959. ..
196C.. .
435
447
437
431
1,460
1,610
1,750
1961...
1962. .
.
1963...
228
247
245
237
250
253
240
231
253
242
229
264
947
957
1,015
1961.. .
1962.. .
1963...
44C
466
503
437
483
525
442
488
545
466
502
541
1, 785
1,939
2,114
1964. . .
292
319
379
297
337
389
303
347
411
315
377
411
1,207
i,380
1,590
1964. . .
1965. . .
1966. . .
531
6CC
637
544
603
674
555
610
672
581
625
674
2,211
2,438
2,657
I960. . .
Note:
The series on this page were introduced in the November 1968 issue.
(DECEMBER 1968;
107
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
a'dded to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ® (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Quarterly
Quarterly
Year
1
IV
III
II
546 . SALES UNDER M I L I T A R Y CONTRACTS
TOTAL
' (MIL. DOL. ;
1946. .
.
1947...
1948. .
.
..
.
1949. . .
1950. .
.
1951...
..
.
1952...
1953...
1954...
..
.
*.;.
...
..
.
1955...
1956...
1957...
..
.
;..
...
...
Annual
..;
...
...
...
...
Year
Annual
1
II
III
IV
547. U.S. MILITARY EXPENDITURES ABROAD
(MIL. DOL. )
TOTAL
1S46...
1947.. .
1948.. .
..
.
1949...
195G...
1951.. .
.!
.
192
132
1952...
1953.. .
1954...
...
200
161
375
1955...
1956...
1957...
...
1958...
1959.. .
I960...
781
769
801
737
3,435
3,107
3,087
.!
!
..
.
.!
.
..
.
...
..
.
...
...
493
455
799
..
.
:::
...
...
621
576
1,270
2,054
2,615
2,642
2,901
2,949
3,216
1958...
1959...
1960...
71
89
38
86
300
302
335
1961...
1962...
1963...
86
110
1«7
112
139
195
111
154
127
94
204
148
402
656
657
1961...
1 9 6 2 ...
1963.. .
736
770
763
781
763
748
705
761
726
727
810
725
2,998
3,105
2,961
1964...
1965. .
.
1966...
207
207
200
151
183
219
192
229
205
198
2C6
205
747
830
829
1964. . .
1965...
1966...
748
674
872
736
717
923
698
761
962
695
793
979
2,876
2,945
3,735
548. RECEIPTS FROM TRANSPORTATION AND OTHER SERVICES
(MIL. DOL. ;
1946. . .
1947. .
.
1948. .
.
1949...
19eO. . .
1 9 5 1 ...
TOTAL
459. PAYMENTS FOR TRANSPORTATION AND OTHER SERVICES
( MIL. DOL. )
..
.
1,935
2,256
1,922
1946...
1947.. .
1946. . .
;:•; ;:•;
1, 334
1,678
2,266
..
.
..
.
..
.
..
.
..
.
1952. .
.
1 9 5 3 ...
1954. . .
..
.
1949.. .
195C...
1951.. .
..
.
..
.
2 , 2 -3 5
1, 990
1,956
':::
..
.
1952. . .
1953...
1954.. .
..
.
2,226
2 , 6y 3
3, 114
19 5 5 ...
1956...
1 9 5 7 ...
:::
:::
TOTAL
751
956
1,076
..
.
1,088
1,221
1,430
..
.
1,613
1,566
1,506
:::
..
.
1,725
2,032
2,234
..
.
..
.
;;!
1955...
19^6. . .
19'37...
;.*;
...
826
823
2,833
2, 947
3,236
1956.. .
1 9 5 S. .
.
I960.. .
671
680
689
671
2,345
2,487
2,710
1 958. .
.
1959. .
.
1960. . .
792
7 9 (S
1 61...
1 62...
1 6 3. .
.
816
904
953
843
920
i,014
838
936
1 ,023
878
946
1,052
3, 373
3, 704
4,040
1961.. .
1962 ..
.
1963.. .
689
730
783
708
741
788
726
728
819
718
788
819
2,839
2,986
3,208
1,103
1,225
1,321
1 ,123
1 ,224
1,333
i, 143
1,267
1,355
4,459
4, 849
5,295
1964.. .
1965...
1966.. .
874
893
999
863
936
997
875
884
1,021
887
955
1,038
3,497
3,668
4,055
1 64...
1 6 5 ...
! to...
Note:
1 t 09 0
1,133
1,233
The series on this page were introduced in the November 1968 issue.
108
(DECEMBER 1968;
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Quarterly
Quarterly
Year
Annual
1
II
III
1
IV
560. FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN THE U.S.
(MIL.
Year
DOU. )
II
IV
III
561. U.S. DIRECT INVESTMENTS ABROAD
TOTAL
(MIL.
TOTAL
DOL.)
..
.
...
230
749
721
..
.
...
660
621
508
..
.
..
.
...
852
735
667
..
.
..
.
..
.
1958...
1959...
I960.. .
343
262
434
635
1,181
1,372
1 ,674
73
132
-5
1961...
1962...
1963.. .
496
272
625
284
421
467
483
480
314
336
481
570
1,598
1,654
1,976
-5
57
86
1964.. .
1965...
1966...
476
1,24C
695
561
876
1,002
660
619
872
-4
10
34
1 9 4 8 ...
56
80
90
1949...
195C...
1951...
..
.
132
158
124
1952...
..
.
..
.
..
.
..
.
..
.
..
.
197
232
155
1955...
1956...
1957...
40
59
53
-11
98
238
141
20
41
-5
32
77
47
-5
6
40
26
8
-87
1965...
17
85
1966. .
.
52
29
-95
38
-27
44
-113
-24
22
110
1946. . .
1947. . .
1943. .
.
..
.
..
.
1949. . .
1950...
..
.
..
.
..
.
..
.
..
.
..
.
1951. .
.
..
.
1952. .
.
1953...
..
.
1954. .
.
1955. . .
1956. .
.
1957...
1958...
1959. . .
1960. . .
1961...
1962...
1963. .
.
1964. .
.
564. FOREIGN PURCHASES OF U.S. SECURITIES
(MIL. DOL. )
..
.
1946.. .
1947. .
.
..
.
..
.
:::
:::
..
.
1948...
1950...
1951. .
.
1952..1.
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956.. .
..
.
:::
..
.
..
.
...
1957. .
.
1958. .
.
1959...
I960. . .
1
( : . .
= ! .
1 62. ..
1 63. ..
I 6 . .
4 .
1966. .
.
Note:
..
.
118
TOTAL
-338
- 100
-192
1946...
1947...
..
.
..
.
1 9 5 3 ...
1954...
823
Ii951
2,442
63C
733
1 ,054
565. U.S. PURCHASES OF FOREIGN SECURITIES
(MIL.
1946.. .
1947...
1948.. .
DOL.)
..
.
..
.
..
.
74
-7
126
194S...
195C...
1951...
1952.. .
1953...
1954...
1955.. .
1956.. .
1957.. .
2,328
3,468
3,623
TOTAL
-92
-36
95
-27
275
353
..
.
181
323
237
..
.
..
.
37
70
141
1949. . .
Annual
..
.
..
.
87
-91
206
..
.
..
.
-20
421
470
-ii
0
449
282
1958...
**5
196C.. .
234
131
166
131
1,250
668
662
1961.. .
115
106
519
199
248
471
187
159
176
261
375
-62
762
969
1, 105
- .21
198
357
143
92
14
76
283
81
479
184
3C
677
759
481
104
145
14
15?
7
114
3
-23
52
66
6
1C3
324
134
282
-42
bl
173
14
242
520
- 30
-227
107
- 26
55
109
-84
-357
909
1 9 5 9. .
.
1962. . .
1963.. .
1964.. .
1965. . .
1 9 6 6 ...
The series on this page were introduced in the November 1968 issue.
(DECEMBER 1968)
109
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and, or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Quarterly
Monthly
Annual
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Sept.
Aug.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
47. U.S. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(1957-59-100)
1945. .
II Q
III Q
IV Q
A V E R A G E FOR PERIOD
81.3
55.6
64.7
81.8
52.9
65.0
81.5
58.3
65.5
80.0
57.3
65.1
78.0
55.4
65.3
76.3
59.4
65.2
72.8
60.2
65.0
64.5
62.0
65.3
57.9
62.9
65.9
56.1
63.6
66.4
58.3
64.0
67.5
56.8
64.0
67.6
81.5
55.6
65.1
78.1
57.4
65.2
65.1
61.7
65.4
57.1
63.9
67.2
70.5
59.5
65.7
1949..
1950..
68.0
66.9
66.5
68.1
66.4
66.7
67.4
65.2
69.0
67.4
64.7
71.2
68.8
64.0
72.9
69.4
63.8
75.1
69.5
63.7
77.5
69.3
64.3
80.0
68.7
64.9
79.4
69.2
62.6
60.0
68.4
64.1
79.8
67.9
65.4
81.2
67.8
66.2
67.4
68.5
64.2
73.1
69.2
64.3
79.0
68.5
64.0
80.3
68.4
64.7
74.9
1951..
1952..
1953..
81.6
82.2
91.0
81.8
82.7
91.4
82.3
82.9
92.3
82.5
82.2
92.8
82.2
81.4
93.3
81.8
80.7
92.8
80.6
79.1
93.9
80.0
84.4
93.2
80.3
87.4
91.3
80.1
88.3
89.9
80.9
90.2
87.7
81.4
90.7
85.8
81.9
82.6
91.6
82.2
81.4
93.0
80.3
83.6
92.8
80.8
89.7
87.8
81.3
84.3
91.3
1954..
1955..
1956. .
85.2
90.9
99.8
85.1
91.9
99.2
84.5
93.5
98.8
84.5
95.0
100.2
85.3
96.1
99.6
85.7
96.8
99.3
85.4
97.6
95.1
85.4
98.0
99.7
86.0
99.0
101.2
86.3
100.0
101.6
87.4
99.9
101.5
88.9
100.1
102.2
84.9
92.1
99.3
85.2
96.0
99.7
85.6
98.2
98.7
87.5
100.0
101.8
85.8
96.6
99.9
1957..
1958..
1959..
101.9
92.6
101.2
102.5
90.1
103.0
102.4
88.5
104.8
101.5
87.8
107.1
101.8
89.5
109.4
102.1
92.3
109.9
102.2
94.0
107.5
102.3
95.8
104.1
100.9
96.2
104.0
99.0
96.8
102.8
97.1
99.8
103.4
95.0
100.4
109.5
102.3
90.4
103.0
101.8
89.9
108.8
101.8
95.3
105.2
97.0
99.0
105.2
100.7
93.7
105.6
I960..
1961..
1962. .
111.7
103.6
115.0
111.0
103.6
116.4
110.5
104.0
117.5
109.7
106.7
118.0
109.9
108.7
118.2
109.6
110.5
118.1
109.1
111.5
119.0
108.7
112.9
119.0
107.8
111.6
119.7
107.0
113.4
119.1
105.4
114.9
119.8
103.6
115.8
119.4
111.1
103.7
116.3
109.7
108.6
118.1
108.5
112.0
119.2
105.3
114.7
119.4
108.7
109.7
118.3
1963..
1964. .
1965. .
119.8
128.1
138.8
120.6
128.7
139.6
121.9
129.3
140.9
122.7
131.1
141.0
124.4
132.0
141.8
125.6
132.3
143.1
125.6
133.5
144.3
125.4
134.2
144.9
125.7
133.8
144.1
126.1
131.7
145.5
126.1
135.5
146.7
127.0
137.9
149.0
120.8
128.7
139.8
124.2
131.8
142.0
125.6
133.8
144.4
126.4
135.0
147.1
124.3
132.3
143.4
1966. .
1967. .
150.7
158.3
152.4
156.7
153.8
156.6
153.9
156.7
155.4
155.6
156.5
155.7
157.2
156.4
157.8
158.3
158.1
156.8
,159.4
159.1
159.8
159.5
162.1
152.3
157.2
155.3
156.0
157.7
157.2
159.3
159.7
156.3
158.1
1946..
1947..
1948. .
157.2
62. INDEX OF LABOR COST PER UNIT OF OUTPUT, TOTAL MANUFACTURING
(1957-59=100)1
1947..
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
72.0
72.3
72.7
72.9
73.6
73.9
73.6
74.0
75.1
75.2
75.2
76.7
72.3
73.5
74.2
75.7
73.9
1949. .
1950. .
77.5
81.0
78.2
77.4
81.2
77.9
78.4
80.2
77.6
78.2
80.3
76.9
77.5
80.9
77.2
77.6
79.9
76.2
78.8
80.1
75.8
80.0
78.9
75.9
80.4
78.4
76.9
60.1
78.5
79.1
81.3
77.7
80.5
80.9
78.3
80.6
77.8
80.8
77.9
77.8
80.4
76.8
79.7
79.1
76.2
80.8
78.2
80.1
79.0
79.6
77.7
1951. .
1952. .
1953..
80.8
88.1
89.5
81.9
88.2
90.0
82.7
88.6
90.2
84.4
88.6
90.2
84.7
89.7
90.0
85.7
90.0
90.4
87.1
88.6
89.6
87.8
88.6
89.9
87.6
89.3
90.3
87.3
89.4
91.8
87.7
88.6
92.7
88.4
89.6
94.1
81.8
88.3
89.9
84.9
89.4
90.2
87.5
88.8
89.9
87.8
89.2
92.9
85.5
88.9
90.7
1954. .
1955..
1956..
94.1
90.7
92.3
93.9
91.1
92.9
94.4
90.5
93.7
93.8
89.9
93.8
93.0
90.2
93.9
92.5
89.8
94.4
92.3
89.8
97.8
92.2
89.9
95.6
91.2
89.7
95.3
92.5
89.8
96.4
93.4
91.8
96.4
92.4
92.0
97.4
94.1
90.8
93.0
93.1
90.0
94.0
91.9
89.8
96.2
92.8
91.2
96.7
93.0
90.4
95.0
1957..
1958. .
1959. .
97.3
103.7
100.8
97.6
104.3
99.9
97.6
106.0
99.6
93.3
105.5
98.5
97.5
103.0
97.7
97.6
101.3
97.5
97.7
100.3
99.3
9 7 . 9 98.2
100.3 101.0
100.3 100.4
99.8
99.7
101.3
101.4
100.0
101.9
102.3
100.4
99.5
97.5
104.8
100.1
97.8
103.3
97.9
97.9
100.5
100.0
101.2
100.0
100.9
98.6
102.2
99.7
I960..
1961. .
1962. .
98.8
102.8
100.3
99.7
102.6
100.1
100.4
102.6
100.0
101.1
101.1
100.5
100.9
100.2
1C0.4
100.5
99.5
100.7
100.9
99.0
100.3
100.5 100.5
98.5
98.4
100.2 100.3
101.3
99.4
100.6
101.7
99.7
100.6
101.3
99.6
101.0
99.6
102.7
100.1
100.8
100.3
100.5
100.6
98.6
100.3
101.4
99.6
100.7
100.6
100.3
100.4
1963. .
1964. .
1965. .
101.0
99.3
98.9
100.5
99.3
98.9
99.8
99.8
96.7
99.2
99.4
98.8
99.0
99.0
99.0
98.5
99.4
98.8
99.0
99.2
98.7
99.6
101.1
99.8
99.9
101.4
100.3
100.5
99.8
100.3
100.2
99.5
99.5
100.4
99.6
98.8
98.9
99.3
98.9
99.3
100.0
99.2
100.2
100.2
100.0
99.7
99.8
99.2
1966. .
99.4
104.2
99.9
104.4
99.8
105.0
100.9
104.7
100.6
105.5
100.9
106.3
100.8
106.5
101.6 101.9
106.6 107.5
102.1
107.1
102.6
107.1
102.5
106.6
99.7
104.5
100.8
105.5
101.4
106.9
102.4
106.9
101.1
106.0
1948..
1967..
NOTE:
Series 47 is revised beginning with January 1967.
99.2
99.7
99.0
Series 62 is revised beginning with Dece>mber 1964.
•'-Ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (sum of wages and salaries plus supplejments to wages and salaries) to index of industrial
production, manufacturing.
(DECEMBER 1968)
110
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol <u) (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. O f f i - .
cial source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Quarterly
Monthly
Annual
Year
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
853. RATIOt
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
II Q
IQ
PRODUCTION OF BUSINESS EQUIPMENT TO PRODUCTION OF CONSUMER GOODS
(1957-59-100)
IIIQ
IV Q
A V E R A G E FOR P E R I O D
1945
1946
1947
...
...
1948..
1949..
1950..
105.5
103.0
81.4
104.6
102.8
83.9
106.3
99.9
83.0
104.9
98.4
83.2
104.8
96.2
84.8
104.6
93.5
85.8
105.2 105.9
91.1
89.2
85.9
87.8
106.3
87.5
87.6
103.3
83.5
90.5
103.8
82.2
91.5
104.0
83.4
91.4
105.5
101.9
82.8
104.8
96.0
84.6
105.8
89.3
87.1
103.7
83.0
91.1
104.9
92.6
86.4
1951..
1952..
1953. .
92.2
121.4
115.3
93.5
121.9
114.8
96.3
122.5
114.8
100.7
121.9
114.5
103.3
122.9
113.2
105.8
119.9
113.7
110.5
116.1
114.1
114.3
115.7
114.9
115.7
115.7
115.0
118.3
115.2
113.1
118.8 119.3
114.3 115.4
110.8 110. 0
94.0
121.9
115.0
103.3
121.6
113.8
113.5
115.8
114.7
118.8
115.0
111.3
107.4
118.6
113.7
1954. .
1955..
1956..
107.5
94.2
102.3
106.2
94.8
104.1
105.1
95.7
105.9
103.1
97.1
109.2
102.1
97.9
110.2
100.9
99.6
110.2
100.2
98.9
110.3
99.4
99.4
111.2
97.7
99.9
112.3
97.6
97.8 95.9
102.2 100.1 101.1
112.2
113.9 112.6
106.3
94.9
104.1
102.0
98.2
109.9
99.1
99.4
111.3
97.1
101.1
112.9
101.1
98.4
109.5
1957..
1958..
1959..
112.9
99.0
92.1
112.2
95.8
93.0
111.7
95.9
93.7
111.9
93.4
94.9
110.2
91.1
98.2
108.6
89.9
100.5
108.2 107.5
90.1
91.4
100.6 100*5
106.9
93.9
101.0
105.8
94.8
101.8
101.8
92.0
101.5
112.3
96.9
92.9
110.2
91.5
97.9
107.5
91.8
100.7
103.5
92.9
102.1
108.4
93.3
98.4
I960..
1961..
1962. .
99.8
100.5
98.5
100.5
99.3
99.7
99.8
97.8
100.3
97.9
97.1
100.8
99.0
96.3
101.1
98.8
96.3
102.8
99.8
99.7
96.6
95.9
102.6 103.5
100.0 99.2
98.9 99.2
98.8
97.7
98.1
98.8
103.2 104.4 104.1 103.5
100.0
99.2
99.5
98.6
96.6
101.6
99.8
97.1
103.1
99.1
98.2
104.0
99.4
97.8
102.0
1963..
1964..
1965..
102.7
103.1
107.1
102.4
102.5
108.0
101.3
104.3
107.4
101.6
104.0
109.2
101.4
104.9
110.8
101.2
105.4
111.0
102.1 102.5 103.4 103.5
105.4 105.9 106.6 108.4
112.4 112.5 112.5 115.4
104.0 103.8
108.8 108.2
116.4 117.3
102.1
103.3
107.5
101.4
104.8
110.3
102.7
106.0
112.5
103.8
108.5
116.4
102.5
105.6
111.7
1966..
1967..
117.9
126.0
119.1
127.6
119.7
125.6
119.8
124.3
121.5
124.6
123.2
123.3
124.8 125.9 1 2 6 . 4
125.4 125.9 126.1
123.1 121.7 1 2 2 . 3 119.4 122.2 119.9
118.9
126.4
121.5
124.1
125.7
122.4
125.8
120.5
123.0
123.3
31,
103.0
91.9
102.9
CHANGE IN BOOK VALUE OF MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES f TOTAL
(ANNUAL RATEI BILLION DOLLARS)
A V E R A G E FOR P E R I O D
..
.
..
.
8.6
7.1
4.5
2.0
9.0
1950..
1.9
-0. 3
5.3
3.6
8.3
7.3
-3.2
1951..
1952. .
1953. .
29.2
5.7
19.6
17.8
-1.1
2.2
18.4
-0.2
5.4
16.6
-2.2
8.7
14.5
-4.5
3.9
9.4
2.2
5.7
1954. .
1955. .
1956. .
- 4.7
4.5
9.1
- 3.5
3.2
12.7
-3.8
7.6
5.1
-4.6
0.8
13.1
-3.8
6.0
8.0
1957..
6.6
2.4
-7.1
4. 7
1.9
-5.4
5.1
3. 7
-8.3
14.6
9.4
-6.4
7.3
1948. .
1958. . -4.7
1959..
2.4
1960. . 10.6
1961. .
-3.7
5.1
5.2
5.0
3.0
-0.9
2.3
2.3
5.2
— 6.6
6.4
7.2
— 2.1
12.2
-"•5.6
17.4
20.5
— 3.0
10.3
5.4
5.2
-3.0 -1.0
9.5
2.8
0.1
2.8
2.5
3.2
10.8
9.3
5.8
3.7
2.6
-5.0 -7.1 -3.4
21.8
1.5
9.1
13.5
-1.5
6.1
3.6
2.3
5.0
2.8
6.3
-5.2
10.4
2.1
3.7
-4.6
8.0
6.4
-4.2 -5.4
6.6
8.9
5.7
5.4
-C.9
5.0
8.0
-4.0
5.1
9.0
-4.3
4.9
9.2
-3.5
6.8
6.4
0.0
8.5
6.7
-0.1
-6.8
6.4
C.9
-3.1
9.9
3.0
7.0
5.6
-3.7 -2.8
4.2
7.2
-0.5
-5.2
3.6
-5.7
4.1
1.5
-6.1
10.3
5.2
-0.8
0.5
-3.3
4.0
5.0
1.8
-2.1
5.0
0. 7
0.7
2.5
6.8
1.3
8.8
2.4
-1.0
6.7
4.0
2.1
4.0
11.0
-4.0
7.3
3.3
0.3
6.0
0.8
3.2
4.7
-3.7
4.3
3.7
2.9
1.0
5.4
6.3
4.7
9.6
4.7
1.3
11. 1
2.9
5.1
10.5
4.4
6.0
9. 1
4.7
5.2
8.2
5.5
7.8
10.6
4.4
6.0
9.6
17.9 12.9
14.6 7.6
18.0
2.9
14.6
5.5
18.7
10.1
7.3
13.0
-1.8
7.2
1963. .
1964. .
1965. .
2.3
6.0
11.6
3.2
4.6
4.t>
3.1
4.6
15.3
1.8
6.9
3.5
5.1
6.5
9.2
1966. .
1967. .
8.0
12.8
16.2
5. 7
14.4
5.0
14.0
6.4
19.9
2.9-
1962..
11.4
20.0
-0.7
21.9 17.8 20.0
-3.8
3.9
4.0
2.2
3.6
6.1
4.1
5.2
3.5
10.7
11.2 2.4
-3.8
11.3
5.0
24.0
4.2 -0.3
7.0
7.3
10.7
4.4
-8.6 -2.1
2.3
2.1
1.8
-1.2
-1.5
1.4
5.7
5.7
0.4
5.6
1.4
6.8
0.8
0.8
7.7
14.3
-10.9
4.8
4.5
6.5
4.2
9.4 13.7
8.8 17.3
14.7 15.6 13.5 19.6 18.7
5.6
6.7
4.2
2.6
13.1
2.4
- 3.0
6.4
7.8
16.0
6.6
Series 853 is revised beginning with January 1967. Series 31 is revised beginning with January 1961.
(DECEMBER 1968)
111
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol (u) (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Quarterly
Monthly
Annual
Year
Jan.
D47.
Mar.
Feb.
DIFFUSION
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
INDEX FOR INDEX OF I N D U S T R I A L PRODUCTION—24 I N D U S T R I E S
(1-MONTH SPAN)
II Q
III Q
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1945
..
.
..
.
1947 ,
54.2
16.7
75.0
47.9
37.5
70.8
58.3
18.7
87.5
58.3
20.8
81.2
60.4
50.0
95.8
50.0
50.0
97.9
50.0
70.8
89.6
20.8
72.9
41.7
56.2
54.2
70.8
22.9 27.1
50.0 70.8
60.4 66.7
25^7
1950..
22.9
75.0
1951..
1952..
1953..
54.2
75.0
54.2
52.1
77.1
52.1
62.5
50.0
85.4
58.3
47.9
72.9
35.4
62.5
62.5
37.5
68.7
33.3
29.2
47.9
87.5
33.3
91.7
33.3
56.2
81.2
12.5
43.7
77.1
20.8
1954. .
43.7
95.8
50.0
64.6
75.0
41.7
47.9
87.5
27.1
60.4
87.5
87.5
83.3
77.1
25.0
77.1
85.4
35.4
66.7
79.2
75.0
50.0
64.6
68.7
62.5
83.3
62.5
18.7
14.6
64.6
64.6
6.2
77.1
62.5
20.8
72.9
29.2
41.7
87.5
62.5
85.4
91. -7
66.7
95.8
66.7
66.7
93.7
70.8
47.9
91.7
37.5
70.8
56.3
25.0
20.8
50.0
87.5
58.3
62.5
87.5
39.6
70.8
75.0
75.0
72.9
64.6
54.2
91.7
66.7
39.6
77.1
52.1
79.2
70.8
79.2
66.7
77.1
70.8
83.3
66.7
77.1
54.2
87.5
56.2
83.3
66.7
70.8
75.0
66.7
91.7
70.8
29.2
70.3
20.8
91.7
43.8
72.9
52.1
62.5
16.7
75.0
50.0
1948. .
1949. .
1955..
1956..
1957. .
1958..
1959. .
1960. .
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964. .
1965..
1966. .
1967..
D47.
73.6
59.0
29.8
88.2
40.3
64.6
76.4
35.4
58.3
66.0
44.6
76.0
66.7 75.0
97.9 58.3
16.7 16.7
56.3
67.4
63.9
43.7
59.7
56.2
39.6
73.6
44.4
61.8
77.8
18.1
50.3
69.6
45.7
50.0
81.2
58.3
87.5 85.4
66.7 68.7
52.1 56.2
52.1
86.1
39.6
73.6
83.3
49.3
59.7
75.7
68.7
74.3
72.2
55.5
64.9
79.3
53.3
12.5
79.2
41.7
8.3
72.9
25.0
0.0
95.8
50.0
25.0
47.9
95.8
48.6
13.9
71.5
52.8
74.3
82.0
42.4
88.2
50.0
11.1
72.2
56.9
38.7
62.1
65.1
45.8
72.9
58.3
25.0
54.2
83.3
33.3
87.5
29.2
27.1
83.3
68.8
20.8
75.0
35.4
50.0
56.3
66.7
56.3
78.5
68.8
36.8
68.1
64.6
27.1
81.9
44.5
42.5
71.2
61.1
72.9
81.2
81.2
68.8
75.0
75.0
58.3
45.8
54.2
64.6
79.2
79.2
50.0
79.2
83.3
77.1
87.5
87.5
76.4
71.5
75.7
70.8
73.6
72.9
66.7
67.3
70.1
63.9
82.0
83.3
69.4
73.6
75.5
50.0
47.9
75.0
75.0
43.8
41.7
72.9
56.2
56.2
87.5
50.0
83.3
77.8
31.3
70.1
39.6
56.3
54.9
59.7
75.7
66.0
50.4
DIFFUSION INDEX FOR INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—24
(6-MONTH SPAN)
INDUSTRIES
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1945. .
1946. .
1947. .
..
.
1948. .
1949. .
1950. .
12.5
100.0
12.5
100.0
22.9
95.8
75.0
25.0
100.0
81.2
41.7
100.0
66.7
52.1
95.8
56.2
54.2
93.7
22.9
64.6
95.8
16.7
83.3
87.5
8.3
29.2
83.3 91.7
62.5 64.6
16.0
98.6
74.3
39.6
98.6
40.3
57.0
95.1
18.1
86.1
71.5
49.7
91.0
1951. .
1952. .
1953. .
62.5
66.7
79.2
45.8
62.5
63.7
37.5
68.7
60.4
31.2
50.0
75.0
35.4
75.0
66.7
41.7
95.8
41.7
37.5 37.5 37.5
91.7 100.0 100.0
20.8
16.7
16.7
58.3
95.8
4.2
77.1
91.7
8.3
64.6
87.5
14.6
48.6
66.0
69.4
36.1
73.6
61.1
37.5
97.2
18.1
66.7
91.7
9.0
47.2
82.1
39.4
1954. .
1955. .
1956. .
25.0
95.8
70.8
45.8
100.0
66. 7
50.0
95.8
45.8
70. 8
87.5
54.2
70.8
95.8
58.3
83.3
95.8
79.2
79.2
100.0
66.7
91.7
87.5
54.2
95.8 100.0
83.3 70.8
50.0 52.1
40.3
97.2
61.1
75.0
93.0
63.9
82.0
93.8
70.1
95.8
80.5
52.1
73.3
91.1
61.8
1958. .
1959. .
39.6
8.3
100.0
50.0
10.4
87.5
52.1
45.8
91.7
62.5
70.8
83.3
66.7
91.7
79.2
35.4
95.8
77.1
22.9
8.3
100.0 100.0
45.8 50.0
4.2
4.2
95.8 100.0
66.7 60.4
2.1
95.8
60.4
0.0
91.7
62.5
47.2
21.5
93.1
54.9
86.1
79.9
11.8
98.6
54.2
2.1
95.8
61.1
29.0
75.5
72.0
1960. .
1961. .
1 962. .
70.3
52.1
83.3
83.3
66.7
79.2
66.7
87.5
70.8
58.3
93. 8
91.7
50.0
91.7
77.1
37.5
37.5
83.3
37.5
95.8
66.7
20.8
91.7
77.1
20.8
91.7
60.4
16.7
87.5
47.9
12.5 20.8
87.5 95.8
72.9 62.5
73.6
68.8
77.8
48.6
91.0
84.0
26.4
93.1
68.1
16.7
90.3
61.1
41.3
85.8
72.7
1963. .
1964. .
H65. .
83.3
91.7
83.3
91.7
95.8
85.4
95. R
95.8
87.5
91.7
91.7
83.3
91.7
87.5
83.3
83.3
89.6
79.2
91.7
70.8
87.5
77.1
83.3
91.7
'79.2
95.8
87.5
77.1
83.3
87.5
83.3 85.4
91.7 91.7
89.6 100.0
90.3
94.4
85.4
88.9
89.6
81.9
82.7
83.3
88.9
81.9
88.9
92.4
85.9
89.1
87.2
1966. .
1967. .
95.8
45.8
91.7
29.2
79.2
27.1
75.0
29.2
79.2
41.7
66.7
41.7
75.0
54.2
66.7
66.7
66.7
75.0
70.8
75.0
45.8 37.5
77.1 83.3
88.9
34.0
73.6
37.5
69.5
65.3
51.4
78.5
70.8
53.8
1^57..
NOTE;
41.7
52.1
95.8
79.2
89.6
72.9
Series D47 (1-month span) is revise'! beginning with February 1967.
87.5
91.7
70.8
Series D47 (6-month span) is revised beginning with October 1966
(DECEMBER 1968)
112
INDEX
Series Finding Guide
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con
,1. Gross National Product
200 GNP in current dollars .
205 GNP in 1958 dollars
210. Implicit price deflator
215 Per capita GNP in current dollars
217 Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
B2. Production, Income, Consumption, Trade
9,21,37
9,21,37,55
9
9
9
k2. National and Personal Income
220 National income current dollars
10
222 Personal income current dollars
10
224. Disposable personal income, current dol. . .10
225. Disposable personal income, constant dol. . 10
226. Per capita disposable personal income,
current dollars
10
227. Per capita disposable personal income,
constant dollars
10
i3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
230. Total, current dollars
1
1
231 . Total , constant dol lars
1
1
232. Durable goods, current dollars
1
1
233. Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars . 1
1
234. Automobiles, current dollars
1
1
236. Nondurable goods, current dollars
1
1
237. Services, current dollars
1
1
240.
241
242
243
244
245
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
.12
12
12
12
12
12,26
Gross private domestic investment, total .
Nonresidential fixed investment
Nonresidential structures . .
...
Producers' durable equipment
Residential structures
Change in business inventories
July '68# July '68# *200. GNP in current dol lars
5,63,69
5,63,69,85 July '68# July '63# *205. GNP in 1958 dollars
9,21,37
July
6,63,69
9,21,37,55 6,63,69,85 July
*47. Industrial production
Dec.
21,37,61 6,69,97
*52. Personal income
21,37
July
6,69
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr . . .
21
July
6,69
5,63
5,63
5,63
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales
57. Final sales
*54. Sales of retail stores
5,64
5,64
5,64
5,64
5,64
5,64
5,64
5,64
5,64
5,64
5,64
5,64
5,64,71
July '68# July '68#
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
\6. Gov. Purchases, Goods and Services
260. Federal, State, and local governments ....
262. Federal Government
264. National defense
266. State and local governments
14
14
14,52
14
5,65
5,65
15
5,65
15
15
5,65
5,65
15
22,37
22
22,37
6,69
6,69
6,69
Apr. '67#
July '68 July '68
May '68
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
Apr. '68#
Mar. '68
Sep. '68 Sep.
'68
Sep.
Sep.
'68
6,70
6,70
6,71
6,71
6,71
Aug. '67
Sep. '68
May '67
May '68
June '68
Sep.
'68
96.
97.
*61.
69.
5,63
5,65,81
5,65,81
5,65,81
'68#
'68#
'68
'68
'68
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing 24
24. New orders, mach. and equip, industries. . 24
9 Constr. contracts, com. and indus.
24
24
*29 New bldg permits private housing
24,35
5,63
13,46
13,48
13,48
July
July
Nov.
July
July
B3. Fixed Capital Investment
*12. Index of net business formation
23,35
13 New business incorporations
23
*6. New orders, durable goods industries
23,35
8 Construction contracts total value
23
*10. Contracts and orders, plant, equipment. . .23,35
5,63
5,63
5,63
5,63
\5. Foreign Trade
250. Net exports of goods and services
252. Exports of goods and services
253. Imports of goods and services
'68#
'68#
'68
'68
'68
25
25
.
25,38,39
6,71
6,71
6,71,77
Sep.
Aug.
Nov.
'68
'67
'68
Sep.
'68
Nov.
'68
25
6,71
Sep.
'68# Sep.
12,26
26,36
26
26
26
7,64,72
7,72
7,72
7,72
7,72
July
Dec.
Mar.
Sep.
Mar.
'68# July '68#
'68
'68
'68 Sep. '68
'68
7,72
7,72
7,72
7,72
Jan.
Sep.
Apr.
Sep.
'68
'68
'67
'68
28,36
28,36,62
28,36
7,73
7,73,98
7,73
Dec. '67
Mar. '68
July '68
28
28
28,36
7,73
7,73
7,73
July '68
Apr. '67
Nov. '68
7,73
7,73,84
May '68
May '68
7,73
7,73
July '68
Dec. '68
July '68
Nov. '68
30
30
30
30,36
7,74
7,74
7,74
7,74
Aug.
Aug.
Apr.
Dec.
'68
'68
'67
'67
Aug. '68
Aug. '68
30,
31
31
31
7,74
7,74
7,74
7,74
Apr.
Mar.
Mar.
Apr.
'67
'68
'68
'67
July '64
July '64
93 Free reserves
114 Treasury bill rate
116 Corporate bond yields
115 Treasury bond yields
32
32
32
32
7,75
7,75
7,75
7,75
Jan.
Apr.
June
Jan.
'68
'68
'68
'68
117
66
*72.
*67.
118.
32
33
33,38
33,38
33
7,75
8,75
8,75
8,75
8,75
Jan.
Dec.
Apr.
Jan.
Jan.
'68
'67
'67
'68
'68
6,76
6,76
6,76
Nov. '68
Nov. '68
Nov. '68
Unfilled orders, durable goods industries.
Backlog of capital approp., manufacturing.
Business expend., new plant and equip .
Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures
B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
245. Change in bus. inventories, all indus
*31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories
37. Purchased materials, higher inventories. .
20. Change in materials, supplies inventories
26 Buying policy production materials
'68
'68#
5,65
\7. Final Sales and Inventories
270. Final sales, durable goods
271. Change in business inventories, durable
goods
274. Fi nal sales, nondurable goods
275. Change in business inventories,
nondurable goods
280.
282.
284.
286.
288.
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income
Rental income of persons
Corp. profits and inventory valuation adj .
Net interest
A9. Saving
290. Gross saving, private and government
292. Personal saving
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296. Capital consumption allowances
298. Government surplus or deficit
16
16
16
.16
16
5,65,83
'68
'68
'68
32.
25.
*71.
65.
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
*23 Industrial materials prices
*19 Stock prices 500 common stocks. . . .
*16 Corporate profits after taxes
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate all industries
18 Profits per dollar of sales mfg ....
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
55. Wholesale prices, indus. commodities . . .29
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods . . .
29,54
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
29
*62. Labor cost per unit of output mfg
29,38
5,65
5,65
5,65
5,66
5,66
B6. Money and Credit
98. Change in money supply and time deposits.
85 Change in money supply
33. Change in mortgage debt
*113. Change in consumer installment debt.
5,66
5,66
17
17
17
5,66
5,66
5,66
112.
110.
14
39
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Bl. Employment and Unemployment
*1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg. . . . 18,35
*4 Nonagri placements all industries
18,35
2 Accession rate manufacturing
. 18
5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance. . 18
18
3 Layoff rate manufacturing
49.
46
48.
*41.
42.
*43.
45.
40.
*44.
Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
Help-wanted advertising
Man-hours in nonagri. establishments ....
Employees on nonagri. payrolls
Persons engaged in nonagri. activities . .
Unemployment rate, total
Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate
Unemployment rate, married males
Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over
19
19
19
19,37
.
19
20,37
20
20
20,38
6,67
6,67
6,67
6,67
6,67
Aug.
Apr.
Aug.
Apr.
Aug .
'68 Aug. '68
68#
68 Aug. '68
68
68 Aug . ' 68
6,67
6,67
6,68
6,68
6,68
6,68
6,68
6,68
6,68
Feb.
June
Aug.
Aug .
Feb.
Feb.
Dec.
Feb.
Feb.
68#
68
68# Aug.
68 Aug.
68
68
67
68
68#
*Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
Sep.
'68
Sep.
'68
July '68# July '68#
5,65
17
17
Vendor performance, slower deliveries. . .
Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods
Book value, mfg. and trade inventories. . .27,38
Book value, mfrs.' inven., finished goods. 27
'68#
'68
Change in business loans . . .
Total private borrowing
Liabilities of business failures
Delinquency rate installment loans
Municipal bond yields
Consumer installment debt
Com. and industrial loans outstanding
Bank rates on short-term bus. loans
Mortgage yields residential
B7. Composite Indexes
810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj.. . 34
820 5 coincident indicators
34
830 6 lagojng indicators
34
= The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
July '68
July '68
Nov.
'68
July '64
July '64
July '64
July '64
July '64
July '64
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
113
Series Finding Guide-Continued
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Tables
Charts
Series
Historical
descriptions
data
(issue date) (issue date)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Charts
68
68
68
68
68
D3. Federal Government Activities— Con.
616. Defense Dept. obligations, total
52
Nov. '68
621. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement. . . 52
Nov. '68
647. New orders, defense products industries . .52
Nov. '68
648. New orders, defense products
52
Nov . ' 68
625 Military contract awards in U.S
52
Nov . ' 68
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
Nov.
Nov.
Nov .
Nov.
'68 D4. Price Movements
781. Consumer price index,
'68
782. Consumer price index,
' 68
783. Consumer price index,
'68
784. Consumer price index,
all items
food
commodities
services
78
78
78
78
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
Nov.
Nov .
Nov.
Nov .
'68
' 68
'68
' 68
all commodities . .
indus. commodities.
proc. foods, feeds .
farm products
43
43
43
43
43
78
78
78
78
78
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov,
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
D61 Bus expend new plant and equip$ .... 44
D480. Freight carloadings
44
480. Change in freight carloadings
44
79
79
79
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
8,80
8,80
Apr. '67#
Apr. '67#
25,38,39
40
40
40
40
71,77
77
77
77
77
41
41
41
41
77
77
77
77
C2. Diffusion Indexes
D440. New orders, manufacturing
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade
D446. Number of employees, mfg. and trade
42
42
42
42
D450
D460.
D462.
D464.
D466.
420.
425.
430
435
Household income compared to year ago. .
Probability of change, household income. .
New cars purchased by households
Index of consumer sentiment
...
Level of inventories mfg. and trade
Selling prices, mfg. and trade
Selling prices, manufacturing
Selling prices, wholesale trade
Selling prices, retail trade
Nov.
Nov .
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Dl. Foreign Trade
500 Merchandise trade balance
45
502 Exports excluding military aid
45
506. Export orders, durable goods except
motor vehicles
45
508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery . . .
45
512 General imports
45
8,80
8,80
8,80
.Aug. '68# Aug.
Apr. '67#
Apr. '67#
46
8,81
Dec.
'68
Sep.
46
8,81
Dec.
'68
Sep.
46
81
Dec.
'68
46
13, 46
81
5,65,81
Dec.
Dec.
'68
'68
530 Liouid liabilities to foreisners
532. Liquid and nonliquid liabilities to foreign
official agencies
534. U.S. official reserve assets
252. Exports of goods and services
253. Imports of goods and services
47
81
Dec.
'68
47
47
13,48
13,48
81
81
81
81
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
536 Merchandise exports adjusted
537. Merchandise imports, adjusted
540. Investment income, military sales, and
services, exports
541. Foreigner investment income, military
expend., and services, imports
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad
543. Income on foreign investments in U.S
48
48
81
81
Dec.
Dec.
'68
'68
48
81
Dec.
'68
48
49
49
81
82
82
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
'68
'68
'68
545
544
547.
546.
548.
549.
Payments by U S travelers abroad
49
Receipts from foreigners in U.S
49
U.S. military expenditures abroad
49
Military sales to foreigners
49
Receipts, transportation and services
49
Payments, transportation and services . . 49
.
82
82
82
82
82
82
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
561.
560.
565.
564.
570.
575.
U.S. direct investments abroad
50
Foreign direct investments in U.S
50
U.S. purchases of foreign securities
50
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
50
Gov. grants and capital transactions
50
Banking and other capital transactions . . 50
.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
July
July
July
July
'68#
'68#
'68#
'68#
D3. Federal Government Activities
600. Fed. balance,nat'l income and prod. acct. . 51
601. Fed. receipts, nat'l income and prod. acct. 51
602. Fed. expend., nat'l income and prod. acct. 51
264. National defense purchases
14,52
8,83
8,83
8,83
8,65,83
*Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
114
750.
58.
751.
752.
Wholesale price
Wholesale price
Wholesale price
Wholesale price
index,
index,
index,
index,
53,60
53
53
53
.54
29,54
54
54
8,83
8,83
8,83
83
8,83
Dec. '67#
Sep. '68#
Mar. '68#
8,84,96
84
84
84
May '68#
8,84
84,73
84
84
Aug.
El. Actual and Potential GNP
205 Actual GNP in 1958 dollars
206 Potential GNP in 1958 dollars
207 GNP gap (potential less actual)
'68# E3. Diffusion Indexes
Dl. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg ...
D6. New orders, durable goods industries
Dll. New capital appropriations, mfg
D34. Profits, manufacturing
D19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
D23. Industrial materials prices
D5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance .
D41. Employees on nonagri. payrolls
D47. Industrial production
D54. Sales of retail stores
781.
133
132
135
136
138
137.
May '68
6,63,69,85
85
5,85
July '68# July '68
8,86
8,86
July '67
July '67
8,86
Sep.
'68
8,86
Dec.
'68
8,86
July '68
July '68
8,86
8,86
8,86
Feb. '68
Sep. '68
June '68
Sep. '68
June '68
8,86
8,86
June '68
Feb. '68
June '68
58
58
58
58
58
58
58
87,90
87,90
87
88
88,91
88,92
88,92
Sep.
Oct.
Aug.
Oct.
Apr.
Apr.
May
'68
'68
'67
'64
'65
'65
'65
Sep.
'68
59
59
59
59
89,93
89,93
89,94
89,95
Sep.
Dec.
Apr.
Apr.
'68
'68
'67
'65
Sep.
'68
9,21,37,55
55
55
United States
Canada
United Kingdom
West Germany
France
Japan
Italy
53,60
60
60
60
60
60
60
84,96
•96
96
96
96
96
96
May '6S#
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
F2. Industrial Production Indexes
47 United States
123 Canada
122. United Kingdom
126. France
125. West Germany
128 Japan.. ..
121 OECD European countries
127 Italy
July
July
July
July
fc
'68#
'68#
'68#
'68#
'66
'67#
F. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
••-
Sep.
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing . . 56
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade. 56
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
56
853. Ratio, prod, of bus. equip, to consumer
56
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable
personal income
57
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings
'68#
unfilled to persons unemployed
57
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm. 57
856. Real avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers. . 57
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers . 57
857. Vacancy rate, total rental housing
'68#
57
'68
'68
'68
'68
D2. Balance of Payments and Components
520. U.S. balance of payments, liquidity
balance basis
.
...
522. U.S. balance of payments, official
settlements basis
525. Net capital movements, liquidity balance
basis
527. Net capital movements, official settlements
basis
250 Balance on goods and services
Historical
Series
data
description
(issue date) (issue dati
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS-Con.
C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
CT. Aggregate Series
61 Bus expend new plant and equip
410 Manufacturers' sales total
412 Mfrs.' inventories, book value
414 Condition of mfrs ' inventories
416. Adequacy of manufacturers' capacity ....
Tables
21,37,61 69,97
61
97
a
97
a
97
Q
97
(1
97
(.1
97
61
97
Dec.
July
Nov.
Nov.
June
Apr.
June
Nov.
'68
'67
'67
'67
' 68
'68
' 68
'67
F3. Stock Price Indexes
19 United States
143 Canada
142 United Kingdom
146. France
145. West Germany
148. Japan
147. Italy
28,36,62
62
62
62
62
62
62
Mar.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'68
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
73,98
98
98
98
98
98
98
The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
Sep.
'6£
Nov.
'6£
Titles and Sources of Series
Within each of the six sections, series are listed in numerical order.
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. "M" indicates
monthly series; "Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the
whole period except for series designated by "EOM" (end of the
month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter).
The alphabetic-numeric designations following the series titles indicate all charts and tables in which the series may be found. See the
table of contents for chart and table titles and Series Finding Guide
for page numbers. The series in section 6 preceded by an asterisk
(*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators, chart
B8. Unless otherwise indicated, all series which require seasonal
adjustment have been adjusted by their source.
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number and
are obtained from the same sources.
244. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential structures
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)
245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A4, B4)
250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A5, D2)
252. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A5, D2)
253. Imports of goods and services (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A5, D2)
260. Government purchases of goods and services, total (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A6)
A National Income and Product
200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Al, B2, B8)
205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Al, B2, B8, El)
210. Implicit price deflator, gross national product (Q). --Depart
ment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Al)
215. Per capita gross national product in current dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and
Bureau of the Census
(Al)
217. Per capita gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau
of the Census
(Al)
220. National income in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
222. Personal income in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
225. Disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics •
(A2)
226. Per capita disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A2)
227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A2)
230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A3)
231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1958 dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A3)
262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, total
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A6)
264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
defense (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A6, D3)
266. State and local government purchases of goods and services,
total (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A6)
270. Final sales, durable goods (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A7)
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A7)
274. Final sales, nondurable goods (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A7)
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods (Q).. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A7)
280. Compensation of employees (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A8)
282. Proprietors' income (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A8)
284. Rental income of persons (Q). --Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(A8)
286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A8)
288. Net interest (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A8)
290. Gross saving -- private saving plus government surplus or
deficit (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A9)
232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
292. Personal saving (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A9)
233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods except
automobiles, in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A3)
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A9)
234. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
296. Capital consumption allowances, corporate and noncorporate
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods, in
current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A3)
298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A9)
237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
240. Gross private domestic investment, total (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)
241. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)
242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A4)
243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, producers' durable
equipment (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A4)
(A9)
B Cyclical Indicators
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, B8, E3, E4)
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(Bl)
*4. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M). -- Department
of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(Bl, B8)
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(Bl, E3, E4)
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries
(M). --Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3, B8, E3, E4)
7. New private nonfarm housing units started (M). -- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)
8. Index of construction contracts, total value (M). -- McGrawHill Information Systems Company.
(Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(B3)
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings, floor space (M). — McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(B3)
*10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (IYI). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(B3, B8)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations (Q).--National Industrial Conference Board (B3.E3)
*12. Index of net business formation (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau
of Economic Research, Inc.
(B3, B8)
13. Number of new business incorporations (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(B3)
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(B6)
*16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q). • Department of Commerce,
(B5, B8)
Office of Business Economics
*17. Index of price per unit of labor cost -- ratio, index of
wholesale prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) to
seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees
(sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and
salaries) per unit of output (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B5, B8)
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing
corporations (Q). -- Federal Trade Commission and Securities
and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
(B5)
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M). -• Standard and
Poor's Corporation
(Bb, 88, E3, E4, F3)
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials
and supplies (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
the Census
(B4)
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate,
all industries (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B5)
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, B8, E3, E4)
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment
industries (M). •- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B3)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B4)
26. Buying policy - production materials, percent of companies
reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M). -- National
Association of Purchasing Management
(B4)
*29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building
permits (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3, B8)
'31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census
(B4, B8)
Continued on reverse
115
Titles and Sources of Series
(Continued from page 115)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower
deliveries (M). •• Chicago Purchasing Agents Association
(B4)
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions
and life insurance companies (M). -- Institute of Life Insurance, Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal
National Mortgage Association, National Association of
Mutual Savings Banks, U.S. Savings and Loan League, and
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B6)
37. Percent of companies reporting higher inventories of purchased materials (HI). - National Association of Purchasing
Management; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B4)
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and
over (EOM). -- American Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc. (Bimonthly since December 1964)
(B6)
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
*41. Number of employees on n onagri cultural payrolls, establishment
survey (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, B8, E3, E4)
42. Total number of persons engaged in nonagr(cultural activities,
labor force survey (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
66. Consumer installment debt (EOM). -- Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain
current figure
(B6)
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities (Q). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6, B8)
68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product (1958
dollars), nonfinancial corporations - ratio of current-dollar
compensation of employees to gross corporate product in
1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(B5)
69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (fill). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B3)
*71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value (EOM). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and
Bureau of the Census
(B4, B8)
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting
large commercial banks (EOM)- -- Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
(B6, B8)
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (Nl). -- Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B6)
93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3)
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(Bl, B8)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ). -National Industrial Conference Board
(B3)
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M). •- Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, B8)
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security(Bl)
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M). -- National
Industrial Conference Board
(Bl)
*47. Index of industrial production (M). -- Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B2, B8, E3, E4, F2)
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M). -- Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl)
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit
markets (Q). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M). -- Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B6)
*113. Net change in consumer installment debt (M). -- Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6; B8)
49. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled (EOIYI). -- Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
*52. Personal income (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(B2, B8)
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M). -- Treasury Department
53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (fill). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B2)
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M). -- First
National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department
*54. Sales of retail stores (fill). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B2, B8, E3, E4)
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M).-- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5)
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census
(B6)
(B6)
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M). -- The Bond
Buyer
(B6)
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M). -- Department
of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration
(B6)
*200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). See in section A.
(B2, B8)
*205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A.
57. Final sales (series 200 minus series 245) (Q). •- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B2)
245. Change in business inventories (GNP component) (Q). See
in section A.
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, D4, E3, E4)
810. Twelve leading indicators -- reverse trend adjusted composite
index (includes series 1, 4, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31,
and 113) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B7)
*61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
(B3, B8, Cl, C2)
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing-ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages
and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing
(M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
. and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B5, B8)
65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book value, all
manufacturing industries (EOM). --- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B4)
116
820. Five coincident indicators -- composite index (includes series
41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B7)
830. Six lagging indicators -- composite index (includes series 44,
61, 62, 67, 71, 72) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B7)
C Anticipations and Intentions
61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries (Q). See in section B.
410. Manufacturers' sales, total value (Q). -- Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
(Cl)
*412. Manufacturers' inventories, total book value (EOQ). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
(Cl)
414. Percent of total book value of inventories held by manufacturers classifying their holdings as high, less percent classifying holdings as low (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(Cl)
416. Percent of total gross capital assets held by companies classifying their existing capacity as inadequate for prospective
operations over the next 12 months, less percent classifying
existing capacity as excessive (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Cl)
420. Current income of households compared to income a year ago
(percent higher, lower, and unchanged) (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Cl)
425. Mean probability (average chances in 100) of substantial
changes (increase, decrease, and increase less decrease) in
income of households (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(Cl)
430. Number of new cars purchased by households (Q).-- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Cl)
435. Index of consumer sentiment (Q). -- University of Michigan,
Survey Research Center
(Cl)
D440. New orders, manufacturing (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2)
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2)
D460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2)
D462. Selling prices, manufacturing (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D466. Selling prices, retail trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D480. Freight carloadings (Q). -- Association of American Railroads
(C2)
480. Change in freight carloadings (Q). -- Association of American
railroads
(C2)
D Other Key Indicators
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M). See in
section B.
250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- See in
section A.
252. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under military grants; U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- See in section
A.
253. Imports of goods and services:
(Q). -- See in section A.
U.S. balance of payments
264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
defense (Q). -- See in section A.
500. Merchandise trade balance (Series 502 minus series 512) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of me Census
(Dl)
502. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
Titles and Sources of Series
561. U.S. direct investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2)
Continued from page 116)
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
506. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except
motor vehicles and parts (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
)08. Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery (M). -McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
570. Government grants and capital transactions, net: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). -• Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
512. General imports, total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(Dl)
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
520. U.S. balance of payments on liquidity balance basis (change in
U.S. official reserve assets and change in liquid liabilities to
all foreigners) (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D2)
600. Federal Government surplus or deficit, national income and
product account (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D3)
52?. U.S. balance of payments on official settlements basis (change
in U.S. official reserve assets, and change in liquid and
certain nonliquid liabilities to foreign monetary official
agencies) (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
525. Net capital movements (including unilateral transfers -- except
military grants -- and errors and omissions) on liquidity
balance basis: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
527. Net capital movements (including unilateral transfers -- except
military grants -- and errors and omissions) on official settlements basis: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
530. Liquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to all foreigners,
total outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). -- Depart
ment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
532. Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities (excluding military
grants) to foreign official agencies, total outstanding: U.S.
balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(D2)
534. U.S. official reserve (assets) position, excluding military
grants: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
601. Federal Government receipts, national income and product
account (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D3)
602. Federal expenditures, national income and product account
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D3)
616. Defense Department obligations incurred, total, excluding
military assistance (M). -- Department of Defense, Fiscal
Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
(D3)
621. Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement (M). -Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(D3)
625. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and
institutions (M). -- Department of Defense, Directorate for
Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
(D3)
647. New orders, defense products industries (M). -- Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D3)
(D2)
543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
545. Military sales to foreigners: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2)
547. U.S. military expenditures abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
548. Receipts for transportation and other services: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
549. Payments for transportation and other services: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
560. Foreign direct investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings of nonsupervisory
production workers (with 3 dependents) on private nonagricultural payrolls, 1957-59 dollars (M). -- Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number
and are obtained from the same sources. See section B for titles
and sources of Dl, D5, D6, Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, D58, D61,
and section C for D440, D442, D444, D446, D450, D460, D462, D464,
D466, and D480. Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q). -- First National City Bank
of New York; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(E3)
F International Comparisons
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).
See in section B.
47. United States, index of industrial production (M). See in
section B.
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M) -- Central
Statistical Office (London)
(F2)
752. Index of wholesale prices, farm products (M). -- Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
858. Index of output per man-hour, total private nonfarm (Q). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
750. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities (M). -- Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
537. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
541. Foreigners' investment income, military expenditures and other
services imports: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
857. Vacancy rate in rental housing -- unoccupied rental housing
units as a percent of total rental housing (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(E2)
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
European Countries, index of industrial production (M). -Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(Paris)
(F2)
751. Index of wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
(D2)
856. Real average hourly earnings of production workers in manufacturing, 1957-59 dollars (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(E2)
648. New orders, defense products (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(D3)
536. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants: U.S.
balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D2)
540. U.S. investment income, military sales, and other services
exports, excluding military grants: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled (series 49) to
number of persons unemployed (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Employment Security and Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (E2)
781. Index of consumer prices (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(D4, Fl)
782. Index of consumer prices, food (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
783. Index of consumer prices, commodities less food (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
784. Index of consumer prices, services (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
E Analytical Measures
205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A.
206. Potential level of gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -Council of Economic Advisers
(El)
207. Gap --the potential GNP (series 206) less the actual GNP
(Series 205) (Q). -- Council of Economic Advisers
(El)
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing (Q). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce,
and McGraw-Hill Economics Department
(E2)
851. Ratio, inventories (series 71) to sales (series 56), manufacturing and trade total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(E2)
852. Ratio, unfilled orders (series 96) to shipments, manufacturers'
durable goods (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(E2)
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of
consumer goods (M). •• Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System. (Based upon components of the Federal
Reserve index of industrial production.)
(E2)
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (series
292 divided by series 224) (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(E2)
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M). -- Dominion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F2)
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M). -- Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonal adjustment by
OECD
(F2)
126. France, index of industrial production (M). -- Institut National
de la Statist!que et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(F2)
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M). -- Istituto Centra I e di
Statistica(Rome)
(F2)
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M). -- Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(F2)
132. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M). -- Ministry of
Labour (London)
(Fl)
133. Canada, index of consumer prices (M). -- Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa)
(Fl)
135. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M). -- Statist!sches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(Fl)
136. France, index of consumer prices (M). -- In si tut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(Fl)
137. Italy, index of consumer prices (M). -- Istituto Centrale di
Statistica(Rome)
(Fl)
138. Japan, index of consumer prices (M). -- Office of the Prime
Minister (Tokyo)
(Fl)
142. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M). -- The Financial
Times (London)
(F3)
143. Canada, index of stock prices (M). -- Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa)
(F3)
145. West Germany, index of stock prices (M). -- Statistisches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(F3)
146. France, index of stock prices (M). -- Institut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(F3)
147. Italy, index of stock prices (M). -- Istituto Centrale di Statistica(Rome)
(F3)
148. Japan, index of stock prices (M). -- Tokyo Stock Exchange
(Tokyo)
(F3)
781. United States, index of consumer prices (M). See in section D.
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
FIRST CLASS MAIL
POSTAGE AND FEES PAID
U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFI
