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DECEMBER 1962

Business

Cycle

Developments




DATA THROUGH NOVEMBER

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS

Business

Cycle

U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Luther H. Hodges, Secretary

Developments
DECEMBER 1962
DATA THROUGH NOVEMBER

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Richard M. Scammon, Director
A. ROSS ECKLER, Deputy Director
HOWARD C. GRIEVES, Assistant Director
CONRAD TAEUBER, Assistant Director
MORRIS H. HANSEN, Assistant Director for Research and Development
CHARLES B. LAWRENCE, Jr., Assistant Director for Operations
WALTER L. KEHRES, Assistant Director for Administration
CALVERT L. DEDRICK, Chief, International Statistical Programs Office
CONRAD SHAMEL, Acting Public Information Officer

Office of the Chief Economic Statistician
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief

Series ESI No. 62-12

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This report is prepared under the direction of Julius Shiskin, Chief
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CONTENTS
Page
Important Features and Changes for This Issue

ii

Introduction
Organization and Content of the Report
Descriptions and Procedures
How to Read the Time Series Charts

1
1
1
4
Basic Data

Chart 1.—Business Cycle Series: 1948 to Present:
A. NBER Leading Indicators
B. NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
C. NBER Lagging Indicators
D. Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance
E. International Comparisons of Industrial Production
Table 1. —Basic Data for Business Cycle Series: January 1959 to Present

5
10
13
14
17
19

Analytical Measures

Table 2. —Recent Changes for Business Cycle Series
Table 3.—Distribution of Highs in Business Cycle Indicators During Recent Months Compared
' With Periods Around Previous Business Cycle Peaks
Chart 2.—Diffusion Indexes: 1948 to Present:
A. NBER Leading Indicators
B. NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Chart 3 . —Diffusion Indexes—Actual and Anticipated: 1948 to Present
Table 4.—Diffusion Indexes (Percent Rising) for 12 Major Economic Activities: January 1959
to Present
Table 5.—Diffusion Indexes, Actual and Anticipated, for 4 Manufacturing Activities: January
1959 to Present
Table 6.—Direction of Change in Series Components Over Specified Time Spans and Percent of
Series Rising: January I960 to Present:
A. ( D l ) Average Workweek of Production Workers , Manufacturing
B. (D6) Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods Industries
C. (D19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks
D. (D23) Index of Industrial Materials Prices
E. (D5) Average Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, State Programs
F. (D41) Number of Employees in Nonagricultural Establishments
G. (D47) Index of Industrial Production
H. (D54) Sales of Retail Stores

29
31
32
33
34
35
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46

Cyclical Patterns

Chart 4. —Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns
Chart 5. —Comparisons of Specific Cycle Patterns
Table 7.—Percent of Reference Peak Levels as Measured at Designated Months After the
Reference Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
Table 8.—Percent Change From Reference Trough Levels as Measured at Designated Months
After the Reference Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
Table 9. —Percent of Specific Peak Levels and Percent Change from Specific Trough
Levels as Measured at Designated Months After the Specific Trough Dates in the 9 Most
Recent Expansions

47
52
56
57
58

Appendixes
Appendix A.—Business Cycle Reference Dates and Duration of Expansions and Contractions in
the United States: 1854 to 1961
Appendix B. — Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators
Appendix C.—Average Percentage Changes and Related Measures for Monthly and
Quarterly Business Cycle Series
.
Appendix D.—Current Seasonal Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle Series Adjusted by
Bureau of the Census or NBER (November 1961 to December 1962)
Appendix F.—Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and Expansion Periods of
Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961
For safe by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D.C.




-

60
61
62
65
66

Price 40 cents

IMPORTANT FEATURES AND CHANGES FOR THIS ISSUE
A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the
change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings of
business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize
the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may involve
additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation to other
series, changes in components of indexes, etc. These changes will be listed in
this section each month. The changes made in this issue are as follows:
1. The following three new series have been added to the report:
96. Manufacturers 1 unfilled orders, durable goods industries
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits and
currency) and commercial bank time deposits
They are included in the group, "Other U.S. Series with Business Cycle Significance."
2. All the series showing international comparisons (series 1Z1 to 1Z8)
have been recomputed to a 1957-59 = 100 index.
3. A new seasonal adjustment has been made for series 11, Newly approved
capital appropriations. Component industries are seasonally adjusted and then
added to obtain the seasonally adjusted total. The source for the new seasonal
factors is the National Bureau of Economic Research.

# # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # * # # # # # # # # # # # # # * # #
BACKGROUND MATERIALS
Experimental work for this report was carried out in collaboration with the
National Bureau of Economic Research which is responsible for much of the early research in this field. The book, "Signals of Recession and Recovery, " contains an explanation of research findings helpful in interpreting current cyclical trends, a more
detailed description of the indicators and measures used, and additional historical data.
This book was issued as Occasional Paper 77 of the National Bureau of Economic Research, 261 Madison Avenue, New York 16, N . Y . ( 2 0 7 pages, price $ 3 ) . Other references, both to historical studies and current interpretations of the indicators, appear
in this book.

11




Business Cycle Developments
INTRODUCTION
This report has been prepared to bring together
many of the available economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation by
specialists in business cycle analysis. The presentation and classification .of series in this report
follows the business indicators approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning
dates are those designated by the NationaJ. Bureau
of Economic Research (NBER) which, in recent
years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken
as implying acceptance or endorsement by the
Bureau of the Census _ or any -;other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle
analysis. It is intended only to supplement other
reports of the Department of Commerce that provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data
according to their usual timing relations during the
course of the business cycle and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical
comparisons that help in evaluating the current
stage of the business cycle.
The chief merits of this report are the speed
with which the data for indicators are collected,
assembled, and published and the arrangement of
the series for business cycle studies.
Electronic
computers are used for many of the computations,
thus making early publication possible. Publication is scheduled for around the 20th of the month
following the month of data.
About 70 principal indicators and over 300 components are used for the different measures shown.
The movements of the series are shown against the
background of the expansions and contractions of
the general business cycle so that "leads" and
"lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical
developments spotted. The exact number of series
included for the total and important classes of
series may vary from month to month because of
additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes. Almost all of the basic data
are available in published reports. A complete list
of the series and the sources of data is shown on
the back cover of this report. All the data shown
are seasonally adjusted where seasonal variations
appear to exist.
ORGANIZATION AND CONTENT OF THE REPORT
Three types of data are shown in this report.
They are as follows:
Basic data (chart 1 and table 1). —Over 50 business cycle indicators and 20 additional series with
business cycle significance are included. Together
they provide a broad view of current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as
well as the basis for making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations.




Analytical measures (charts 2-3 and tables 2-6).—
These are measures which aid in forming a judgment of (1) the magnitude of current changes compared to previous changes, (2) the imminence of a
turning point in the business cycle, and (,3) the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also aid in pointing to developments
in particular industries and places.
Cyclical patterns (charts 4-5 and tables 7-9).—
The current cyclical change is compared with
changes at corresponding stages of earlier cycles.
These, comparisons are made in different ways depending upon the phase of the business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular report, certain appendix materials are presented.
These materials include historical data,
key information, and adjustment factors.
DESCRIPTIONS AND PROCEDURES
Business Cycle Series
The three major groups of series are those with
a fairly consistent timing relation to the business
cycle.
They are grouped, in accordance with the
NBER classification, as "leading," "roughly coincident," or "lagging" indicators. Additional series
are also included for a more complete coverage of
the national economy. The series are described as
follows:
NBER Leading Indicators.—Around 30 series
usually reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate economic activity as measured by the
roughly coincident series (see below). For this
reason, they are designated as "leading" series.
One group of these series pertains to activities in
the labor market, another to orders and contracts,
and so on.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—About 15
series are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial production or retail sales. For this reason they are
referred to as "roughly coincident" series.
NBER Lagging Indicators.—Some series, such
as new plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, usually have reached turning points after they were reached in aggregate
economic activity, and for this reason, they are
designated as "lagging" series.
Other series. —About 20 additional U.S. series
with business cycle significance are also shown.
Some of these series, such as change in money supply, merchandise trade balance, and cash surplus
or deficit, represent important factors in the economy, but they have not qualified as indicators for
various reasons, such as irregularity in timing.
Finally, industrial production indexes for several
countries which have important trade relations with
the United States are presented.

1

Descriptions and Procedures
Seasonal Adjustments

Official seasonally adjusted data are used in this
report wherever they are available. However, for
the special purposes of business cycle studies, a
number of series that are not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report. These series
are as follows:
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
industries
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space
13. Number of new business incorporations
14. Current liabilities of business failures
15. Number of business failures with liabilities
of $100,000 and over
17. Price per unit of labor cost index
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales,
all manufacturing^ corporations
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders,
durable goods industries
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than farm products and foods
62. Index of wage and salary cost per unit of output, total manufacturing
81. Index to consumer prices
82. Federal cash payments to the public
83. Federal cash receipts from the public
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement
91. Defense Department obligations, total
92. Military prime contract awards to U.S.
business firms
128. Japan, index of industrial production
Seasonal adjustments for these series were developed by either the Bureau of the Census or the
NBER. The adjustment factors used are shown in
the appendix table D. Seasonally adjusted data
prepared by the collecting agency will be substituted
for the series mentioned above whenever they are
published.
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points

The historical business cycle turning points are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate date when aggregate economic activity
reached its cyclical higher low levels. As a matter
of general practice, a business cycle turning point
will not be designated until at least 6 months after
it has occurred.
Charts

Time series line charts (charts 1-3) are used to
show the cyclical timing and pattern of each series.
Since various ratio and arithmetic scales are used,
rates of change are not comparable except for those
series having the same scale. See the diagram,
page 4, for additional help in using the charts.
Shaded areas on the charts indicate periods of
business cycle contraction between reference dates
for peaks ( f !P"—beginnings of shaded areas) and
troughs ("T" — ends of shaded areas). The shading




for a recession period will be entered only after a
trough has been designated.
Analytical Measures of Current Change

Four kinds of analytical measures are presented-r—rates of change, diffusion indexes, timing
distributions, and direction-of-change tables. These
measures aid in forming a judgment of the magnitude of current changes compared to previous
changes, the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, and the extent of current changes
in different parts of the economy. They also point
to developments in particular industries and places.
Rates of change.— There is considerable interest
in the rate of acceleration during expansions and
the rate of retardation during recessions. For this
reason, rates of change for the principal monthly
and quarterly business cycle series are included in
table 2 of this report. Rates of change are helpful
in judging and appraising trends of acceleration or
retardation in a current business cycle phase, despite the fact that the erratic nature of month-tomonth rates of change often makes it difficult to
determine the significance of a change until some
months after it has occurred. For series, such as
unemployment and layoffs, which usually move
down during expansions and up during recessions,
the changes are inverted so that, in table 2, rises
are shown as declines and declines as rises.
Diffusion indexes.—Diffusion indexes are simple
summary measures of groups of economic series.
They express, for a given group, the percent of the
series which has risen over given intervals of time.
Their turning points tend to lead the turning points
of the aggregate and they measure how widespread
a business change is. They vary between the limits
of 100 (all components rising) and zero (all components falling). Widespread increases are often
associated with rapid growth in aggregate activity,
and widespread declines with sharp reductions.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, two comparison intervals
are used: 1-month intervals (January-February,
February-March, etc.) and 3-month intervals January-April, February-May, e t c . ) . The indexes
based on 1-month intervals are more "current" but
they are also more irregular than the 3*month indexes (see chart 2). Quarterly series are compared
over 1-quarter intervals and 4-quarter intervals.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D"
designate diffusion indexes. When one of these
numbers corresponds to a basic indicator series
number, it means that the diffusion index has been
computed from components of the indicator series;
for example, the diffusion index numbered "D6" is
computed from components of series number 6.
Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series
components are assigned new numbers.
This report includes 29 diffusion indexes based
on 16 indicator series (see tables 4 and 5). Seventeen of these indexes are computed by the Bureau
of the Census utilizing nearly 300 components of 9
indicators (Dl, D5, D6, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54,

Descriptions and Procedures
andD58). Indexes for 8 of these indicators show
comparisons for components over both 3-month and
1-month spans while, for 1 indicator (D58), comparisons are over 1-month spans only. The 12 other
diffusion indexes are based on 7 indicators closely
related to the above 9 indicators. They include two
indexes on capital appropriations (602 companies
and 15 industries)—NBER indexes based on data
from the National Industrial Conference Board; the
Chicago Purchasing Agents Association index based
on monthly reports of changes in profits (200 companies); the First National City Bank of New York
index based on quarterly profit reports (700 companies); and 8 NBER diffusion indexes—actual and
anticipated—for the following: Manufacturers' sales
(800 companies) and new orders (400 companies),
based on data from Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; carloadings (19 commodity groups), based on data
from the Association of American Railroads; and
new plant and equipment expenditures (16 industries), based on data from the Office of Business
Economics and the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Diffusion indexes that are based on anticipations
show what proportion of business enterprises (or
industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a
lag in recognition of actual developments.
Diffusion indexes constructed on the basis of
current data are often highly irregular and require
careful judgment in their use and interpretation.
Timing distributions . — Distributions of current
"highs" appear to be helpful in appraising the evidence f o r a prospective business cycle turning point.
Each month a timing distribution is constructed
which shows the number of series reaching high
values during each month of the expansion. The
timing distribution is summarized by showing the
number of series reaching new highs and the percent
currently high for each of several recent months
(see table 3 ) . Similar distributions of "lows"will
be prepared during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpreting
the distribution of current highs, such distributions
are also shown for leading and coincident series as
they appear 3 months and 6 months before the peak
of each of the earlier post-World War II expansions
and at their peaks .
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the principal business
cycle indicators are scanned each month. During a
business cycle expansion, the high value for each
series is recorded. (For inverted series, that is
series with negative conformity to the business
cycle, low values are taken during expansions and
high values during contractions .) If the values for
2 or more months are equal, the latest date is taken
as the high month. In selecting these values, erratic
values are disregarded, although it is, of course,
difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly for
the current month.
The letter "H" is used in the basic data table
(table l) to identify and highlight the current high
values during the expansion, and the letter "L" to




identify the low values preceding the current highs .
The highs designated during the current cyclical
phase will not necessarily be the specific cycle
peaks. Thus, as new high levels are reached during
the expansion, the current highs will be moved
ahead. On the other hand, lows preceding current
highs are usually specific cycle troughs . Comparisons of the current timing distributions with those
for periods around earlier business cycle troughs
and peaks are helpful for appraising the evidence of
a prospective business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be
made in light of the fact that a contraction following
a high value reached several months ago may be
the result of an erratic fluctuation and that a new
high may be reached in some future month. In
short,, when the percent currently high falls below
50 percent for both the leading and roughly coinci'dent series, this does not necessarily signify that
a business cycle peak has occurred. It may do so,
but it may also simply reflect a short reversal in
the upward movement.
Direction-of-change tables.—Direction-of-change
tables show directions of change ("+" for rising,
"o" for unchanged, and "-" for falling) in the components used for the diffusion indexes. These tables
provide a convenient view of changing business conditions and are helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more highly
aggregated statistical measures. That is, they show
which economic activities went up, which went
down, and how long such movements have persisted.
They alsohelp to show how a recession or recovery
spreads from one sector of the economy to another.
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns

In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare
the behavior of the indicator series and diffusion
indexes in the current business cycle phase with
their behavior during the corresponding phase of
previous business cycles. These comparisons are
made in different ways depending upon the phase of
the business cycle.
Contractions are compared by computing changes
over the span from the most recent business cycle
peak to the current month and over equal spans from
previous reference peaks. This type of comparison
is designated as representing changes from reference peak levels and from reference peak dates.
Expansions may be compared by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels. In this report the current expansion is related
to the May I960 reference peak. For earlier expansions, percentage changes are also computed from
their respective reference peaks to dates which are
the same number of months beyond the succeeding
reference troughs as the current expansion is beyond its reference trough. This type of comparison
is designated as representing changes computed
from reference peak levels and from reference
trough dates. Although the spans from reference
trough dates are the same for each expansion, the

Descriptions and Procedures
spans from the preceding peak dates are different,
depending on the length of the contractions. This
type of comparison answers the question whether 9
and by how much, the current level of activity exceeds or falls short of the level at the preceding
business cycle peak, a given number of months after
the recovery began, and how the current situation
compares in this respect with earlier recoveries.
Expansions also may be compared by computing
changes from reference trough levels and from
reference trough dates . This type of comparison
measures the extent of the rise from the trough
level so many months after the upswing began.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on
the basis of reference dates (which are the same
for all series) , comparisons are made on the basis
of specific peak and trough dates identified for each
series. For example, the specific peak in retail
sales corresponding to the May I960 reference peak
is April I960; the specific peak in stock prices is
July 1959.
Recent performance in several individual indicators is compared graphically with that in earlier
business cycles.
In making graphic comparisons,
the reference peak or trough levels are set equal to

100, and the reference peak or trough dates are
alined depending on the phase of the business cycle.
In order to make historical comparisons, it is'
frequently necessary to use data for a closely
related series for cycles prior to the initial date
covered bythe series used currently. Such comparisons are, therefore, to be considered only approximate. Nearly all series have undergone change in
definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since
1919. The principal cases of this sort are as follows:
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1939: Residential building contracts, floor space)
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Employment in
manufacturing)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly
data as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1935: Department store sales)
62. Index of wage and salary cost per unit of output, total manufacturing (prior to 1946: Production worker wage cost per unit. Supplements to wages and salaries, which are a
part of total labor cost, are not included) .

HOW TO READ THE TIME SERIES CHARTS (CHARTS 1-3)

Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning
of Recession (shaded areas)
as designated by NBER

Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning
of Expansion (white areas)
as designated by NBER

Arabic numerals indicate latest
month for which data are plotted

Indicates a break in continuity—
e.g., data not available, change in
sample reported, change in base used
for computations, etc.

See back cover for complete
titles and sources of series

Broken line indicates quarterly data




Roman numerals indicate latest
quarter for which data are plotted

Various ratio and arithmetic scales
are used to highlight the cyclical
timing and patterns for each series;
where different scales are used, the
rates of change are not comparable
from series to series. "Scale A" is
an arithmetic scale; "scale L-l" is
a semi logarithm scale with 1 cycle;
"scale L-2", a semi logarithm scale
with 2 cycles, etc.

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators

Sensitive employment and unemployment indicators
1. Av. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg. (hrs.)

2. Accession rate, mfg. (per 100 employees)

30. Nonagr. placements, all Indus, (thous.)

3. Layoff rate, mfg. (per 100 employees)—inverted

4. Temp, layoff, all indus. (thous.)-inverted

5. Av. weekly initial claims, State unempl
insur. (thous.)--in verted

I..I.. ..I..!.,!.. ..I.JJL;

1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.




1954

1955 1956 1957

1958 1959

1960 1961

1962

1963

Basic Data
CHART 1 lj__

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.

A

NBER Leading Indicators—Con.

(Nov.)

(Oct.)

(July)

T

P

(July) (Apr.)

(Aug.)

P

T

New investment commitments!

T

(May) (Feb.)

P

T

111]

6. New orders, dur. goods Indus,

(bil. dol.)

18
16
14
12

24. New orders, mach. and equip. Indus, (bil. dol.)

9. Constr. contracts, com. and Indus, (mil. sq. ft. floor area)

50
45
40
35
30

10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bil. dol.)

7
6
5
4

11. New capital appropriations, mfg. (bil. dol.)-QJ

s

\

27. Buying policy, capital expend, (percent reporting
commitments 6 mo. or longer)
*»xw»xfe

75
50
25

7. Private nonfarm housing starts (mil.)

It 3
1.2 i
1.0

*

29. New bldg. permits, private housing units'
(index: 1957-59=100)

140
120 2
100 |
80

.I..

1948 1949

1950

1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.




1961 1962 1963

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)

(July) (Apr.)

(Oct.)

P

T

P

T

(May) (Feb.)

P

T

New businesses and business failures

+ 16
4-12
12. Change, no. of businesses (thous.)

*§

+ 4
0
- 2

13. New bus. incorporations (thous.)

18
16
14

2

12
10
8

14. Liab. of bus. failures (mil. do!.)--inverted

20

_j
^
60 I
4
0

80
100
120
140
15. Large bus. failures (no. per

20
30
40
50
[4ll.ll..il.l.ll..l..i..i..l..i.tl.ll..l,.l..l^^

1948

1949 1950

1951

1952

1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.




Basic Data
CHART 1

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.

(Nov.)

(Oct.)

(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

F

T

(July) (Apr.)

P

(May) (Feb.)

T_

P

T

Profits and stock prices

35
30
25
20

16. Corporate profits, after taxes (bil. dol.)-Q

"N

15

120
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg. (index:

1957-59=100)

110 3
100 §
90

18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg. (cents)—Q

12
10
8
6
20

22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate,
all industries (percent

16
12

8
80
70

19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks

60
50

(index: 1941-43 =

40
30

20

I

1948

1949

1950

1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.




i l l

1961 1962 1963

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.

I Inventory investment, buying policy and sensitive prices)

21. Change in bus. inventories, all indus. (bil. dol.)-Q ' i

31. Change in book value, mfg.
and trade inventories (bil. dol.)

20. Change in book value, mfrs. inventories of purch

26. Buying policy, prod. mtls. (percent reporting
commitments 60 days or longer)

32. Vendor performance (percent reporting slower deliveries)

25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. (bil. dol.)

23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1957-59=100)

1948

1949

1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.




1961 1962 1963

Basic Data

10

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.)

(Oct.)

(July)

T

P

(May)

T

P

(Feb.)

P

(July) (Apr.)

(Aug.)

P

T

T

M

60

41. Employees in nonagr. establishments (mil.)

Employment and unemployment

55
50
65

42. Total nonagr. employment (mil.)

60 3
55
50
3.0

43. Unemployment rate (percent)-inverted

4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
40. Unemployment rate, married males*
(percent)-inverted I""

2.0
3.0
4.0 <
5.0 §
6.0
7.0
45. Av. weekly insured unempl. (percent)—inverted

\r~

3.0
4.0
5.0 <

\J

6.0 §
7.0
8.0
46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1957 = 100)

\

\
1948

1949

100 CT,

~!t

80 |

W

60
Jnlnl.

mWKi 111

1950

1951 1952

1953 1954

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.




120

1955 1956 1957 1958

1959 1960

.!..!..I.

1961 1962 1963

11

Basic Data
I CHART!

fr

^-tf

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.

(Nov.)

(Oct.)

(July)

T

P

(May)

T

P

T

(Feb.)

P

(July) (Apr.)

(Aug.)

P

T
130

Production

120

47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100)

no;

A/

100
90
500
4754501
425 §

50. GNP in 1954 dollars (bil dol.)-(

400

600
550
49. GNP in current dollars (bil. dol.)-Q

500 i
1
450
400

600
550
500

57. Final sales (bil. dol.)-Q

450
400 2

1
350

300

250
, , ! , , ! , , I n ^nU.

1948

nUitt

1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.




.lnl.f

1956 1957

1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963

12

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(July) (Apr.)

P

T

(May) (fob.)

P

T

2.2
Income and trade

2.0 1.8
51. Bank debits outside NYC (tril. dol.)

1.6
450
425
52. Personal income (bil dol.

4002
375*8

350
325

income in mining, mfg., constr. (bil. dol.)

120
115
110
105 _

100^
95 |
90
85
80

54. Sales of retail stores (bil. dol.)

20
19
18 *
17 4
16

§

15
14

55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods
(index: 1957-59=100)

110
100

Wholesale prices

90 1
80
I..!..!.. ..I..(..I., ..I.,I,.I., ..I..LJ«iiiaiiJi.i

1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.




1954

1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962

1963

13

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Lagging Indicators
(Nov.)

(Oct.)

(July)

T

P

(May)

T

P

T

(Feb.)

P

(July) (Apr.)

(Aug.)

P

T

61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip, (bil. dol.)-Q

investment expenditures

40
30

°?

20
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg. (index: 1957-59=100)

110
100

Cost per unit of output

90
63. Labor cost per dol. of real GNP (index 1957-59=100)-Q

110
100
90

70
60

64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories (bil. dol.)

50

CO

40

«

i

30
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods (bil. dol.)

26
22
IB

67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans (percent)-Q

X"

1948

1949

1950

1951 1952

1953

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.
1

Last 2 quarters are anticipated.




1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961 1962

1963

*

48
44
40
36
32
28
24

66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol.)

2
J!

°?
«
§

14

Basic Data

CHART 1 ^
Tl
^^^| P |
|
^HHH
(Nov.)

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance

(Oct.)

P

(July)

T

1

(Aug.)

P

\

(July) (Apr.)

1

T

P

i

|

(May)

(Feb.)

P

T

T

i i

;

Foreign Trade

, .

[To]i
i—

86. Exports, exc. military aid (bil. dol.)

\

^

ywY

As{ W^v

V

\T^:

P

r^
^

1.2 1.0

^
/

/i

87. General imports (bi . dol.)

-A/V*

/

'V^ V

^y

on

l'.6 2
1.4^

/^

[To]

^^fv

rf ^V

^A

r

_:
-

sAr ^A»X.^ J^ _W\

^/^x- t

*^+

^

16

1.4 ^
1.2 ^
1.0 §

^

—

.8

—

+ .8
-h -6 <

—

+ .2 *

* :

i.

\
^

X
\ h

V

/

88. Mer chandise trade beilance (b il. dol.)
1»

\ ^^

^A

N^v

/^

/^
"%

S\

^^v

*

^/W

v^
A^

1 io|

0
J- .2

A

j

-i+l.O

89. Exc:ess of n sceipts c r payme its in U. S. balan<:e

/\
\

! /

i -

of payments (bil. dol.)-Q

\
\
\
\
\
\ /

y

I

A

. t
"V

\--% .A''

^/,*
\

[m]

LA

s
"*\x

1^
i
"N '
*»'

\1
nliilnliv

1948

.Tif.Ui nliiliiln
1949

1950

nli li ln nliiliilii nliiMtv
1951 1952

(
Ml!
il

1953 1954

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.




iilnlnlii

Illllllllll

1955

1956

A

*

\ i
\ i

^

A
/ \

; \

\ I

M

1958

1959

— - .5 *

I
\ ,

\/
tl

1960

-1.0

J— 1.5

nlnlrifc ^nlnln nhilnlii nliAihr nl«l«lu niniiiiii
1957

— + .5

1961 1962

..lull.!..

1963

Basic Data

15

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance—Con.
(Nov.)

(Oct.)

(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

P

T

(July) (Apr.)

P

(May)

T

(Feb.)

P

T

82. Fed. cash payments to public (bil. dol.)

120
100

Federal budget and military obligations

80

120
100 2

83. Fed. cash receipts from public (bil. dol.)

80 1
60

84. Fed. cash surplus or deficit (bil. dol.)

+ 10

i

95. Surplus or deficit,
Pea. Income and prod,
acct. (bil. dol.)-Q

-10
+ 10

-10
2.5
20
.
1.5
1.0

90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement (bil. dol.) J;

91. Defense Dept. oblig., total (bil. dol.)

•:

i

5.0

3.0
2.0
92. Military contract awards in U.S. (bil. dol.)

3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5 2
1.0 1

1948 1949

1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960

1961 1962 1963

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.
Solid lines indicate 3-month average; latest data for 3-month moving average plotted 1 month behind seasonally adjusted data.




Basic Data

16

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
P ta Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance—Con.

85. Change in money supply (percent)'

98. Change in money supply and time deposits (percent)

94. Construction contracts, value (index:

1957-59=100)

97. Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg. (bit. dol.

. |
. M
U M
.
A
J
J
M
U . M
. |
U . , | |
. | . , ^
^

1948

1949

1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.




1961 1962 1963

17

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:

1948

TO PRESENT—Con.

International Comparisons of Industrial Production
(Nov.)

(Oct.)

(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

P

T

(July) (Apr.)

P

T

(May)

P

(Feb.)

T

140
120
121. OECD countries (index:

1957-59=100)
100 CN

<ji
i
80 *

60

140
122. United Kingdom (index: 1957-59=100)

120

<

ioo;
80

-J

123. Canada (index: 1957-59=100)

60

120
100 i
80

47. United States (index: 1957-59=100)

120
100 «

1
V»

80

1948 1949

1950

1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.




1959 1960

1961 1962 1963

Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
International Comparisons of Industrial Production—Con.
(Nov.)

(Oct.)

(July)

T

P

(May) (Feb.)

(July) (Apr.)

(Aug.)

P

T

P

P

T

T

Industrial production indexes-con.

-i 140

125. West Germany (index: 1957-59=100)

128. Japan (index 1957-59-100)

126.

France (index: 1957-59-100)

127. Italy (index:

1957-59-100)

-J 40

1948

1949

1950

1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.




1959 1960

1961 1962 1963

Basic Data

19

Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs are indicated by GO ;
*.
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Leading Indicators
Year and
month

. Accession 0. Nonagri- 3. Layoff
1. Average
rate, manuworkweek of rate, manu- ultural
placements, facturing
production facturing
all indusworkers,
ries
manufacturing
(Per 100
(Hours per
prod . wkr . )employees )

(Per 100
( Thous . ) employees )

4. Number of
persons on
.emporary
layoff, all
industries1

. Avg. weekly
nitial claims
or unemployment insurnce, State
ro grams

( Thous . )

( Thous . )

. Value of
mf rs . ' new
rders, durble goods
nd us tries

24. Value of
mf rs . ' new
orders, machinery and
equipment
industries

(Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.)

1959
40.1
40.2
40.4
40.7
40.7
40.5
40.2
40.3
40.1
40.0

4.1

July
August
November
December,
1960
February
March
April
May
July
Augus t
October
November
1961
January

April
JVfey

June
July
September
October
December
1962
January
February
March
April
May
July

39.9
40.3
40.4
40.1
39.9
39.8
40.1
39.9
39.9
39.6
39.4
39.5
39.3

4.3
4.1
3.8
3.7
3.9
3.7
3.6
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5

©38.5

April
May

4.3
4.7
4.5
4.2
4.2
4.0
4.1
4.0
3.8
4.1
5.3

©3.3

39.0
39.3
39.3
39-7
39.8
39.9
40.0
40.0
39.6
40.2
40.6
40.4

4.0
3.8

39.8
40.3
40.5

008
4.
40.6
40.5
40.5
40.2

0.
46

4.4
4.2
3.9
4.0
4-1
3.7
4-4
4.0
3.8
4.4
4.1
4.3
4.4
4.3
3.9
4.1
4.0

40.1

r3.8
P3.7

p40.4

September
October

(NA)

r40.5

275

13.90
14.92
15.32
15.80
15.24
16.13
15.49
13.97
14.75
15.10
13.72
14.77

4.46
4-73
4-97
4.80
4.85
5.11
5.16
4-85
5.02
5.12
4-99
5.37

14.19
14.80
14.64
14.47
14.68
14-34
13.84
14.41
14.62
13.74
13.60
13.22

5.04
5-14

177
154
153
166
128
179

281
271
303
294
316
322
335
363
351
373
385
381

2.9
©2.9
2.3
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.5
1.9
2.2
1.7
1.8
2.1

193
©220
215
137
151
147
99
138
123
111
111
123

393
©429
371
370
357
331
351
315
329
307
307
305

©12.88
13.36
13.82
14.38
14.79
14.90
15.02
15.63
15.74
16.07
16.10
16.24

5*55
5-45
5-59
5.74
51 £
.48

1.9
1.9
1.6

177
080
117
107
118
112
126
134
116
125

312
285
273
0270

16.43
16.19
16.00
15.73
15.97
15.44
16.27
15.91
r!5.89
rl6.44
0pl6.48

5.78
5.71
5.59
5.47
5.60
5.62
5.71
5.60
r5.69
r5.58
0p5.80

120
119
113
101
116
121
125
155

478
490
509
516
512
523
527
501
516
492
512
510

1.9
1.7

506
535
513
504

122
110
116

494
482
460
488
473
460
475
444

1.6
1.9
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.3
2.6
2.9

443
444
474
©433
481
494
470
529
491
530
565
526
568
548
575
576
[62
30
538
553
555
534
579
573

1.6
1.6
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.2
2.7

2.4
1.9

El. 6
1.8
2.0
2.4
2.6
r2.0
pi. 8
(NA)

150
93
159
138

156
160

145

131

292
284
258

244
246
258
264
291
271
311
351

300
305
313

301
301
302
301
2
299

r\£.
5 .06

5*12
5-17
5.01
4-78
4.96
4.87
©4-65
4.81
.. /
46/
6
47
.9
i fin
4-oO
5.10
4-99
5.17
5.30
5.28

^•Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series, Prior to April 1962,
the 1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
2
Week ended December 8, 1962.




Basic Data

20

Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs are indicated by E ;
*.
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5f 14, 15, 40, 43, 4 )
5 . Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month

9. Construction contracts
awarded for
commercial and
industrial
buildings

10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment

(Mil. sq. ft.
floor space)

(Bil. dol.)

31.93
32.16
35.11
41.92
38.55
34.19
37.64
34.14
38.38
41.44
36.03
39.44

4.91
5.21
5.57
5.35
5.40
5-68
5.72
5.25
5.62
5-73
5.58
5-92

37.32
36.93
36.73
38.73
39.25
40.31
38.87
39.38
38.96
39.44
39.44
38.15

5.56
5.69
5.61
5.72
5.78
5-58
5.39
5.58
5.51
©5-27
5-39
5-30

35.18
36.90
38.16
©35.09
35.89
37.32
35.67
39.79
38.36
33.42
42.22
41.54

5.52
5.50
5.64
5.51
5.73
5.92
5.80
6.13
5.93
6.13
6.41
6.04

37.72
44.72
46.09
39.93
Gj]46.42
44.34
38.60
43.27
39.38
40.60
(NA)

6.31
06.44
6.40
6.09
6.28
6.31
6.36
6.28
r6.!8
P6.16
(NA)

1959

February
March
April
^y

June
July
September
November
December
1960

February
March
April
Mav
July
September

11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
602 manufacturing corporations
(Bil. dol.)
Revised1

27. Buying
7. New private
policy, capi- nonfarm dwelling units
tal expend.,
pet. reporting started
commitments
6 mo. and over*
( Percent
reporting)

2.14
2.32
2.45
2.54

2.24
2.01
©1.79
2.11

(Ann. rate,
thous. )

29. Index of
12. Net change
new private
in business
housing units population,
authorized by operating
local build- businesses
ing permits
(1957-59=100)

41
43
42
49
49
50
49
53
54
49
55
49

1,542
1,503
1,567
1,568
1,546
1,532
1,555
1,450
1,498
1,360
1,350
1,451

114.1
118.7
122.8
115-5
112.9
113.3
108.9
109.3
106.0
99.9
99.4
105.3

55
50
46
50
46
50
45
47
43
39
33
©37

1,302
1,366
1,089
1,275
1,309
1,264
1,209
1,335
1,067
1,237
1,206
©987

98.3
97.9
88.1
95.1
95.9
88.5
91.6
87.3
87.4
89.9
91.4
©87.1

40
39
45
45
41
38
45
47
46
39
39
47

rl,108
rl,087
rl,258
rl,l62
r 1,278
r 1,376
r 1,333
rl,303
rl,397
rl,413
rl,345
rl,255

r89.3
r89.4
r92.3
r92.5
r93.0
r97.6
r98.4
rl01.2
r97.4
r 103.1
r!02.7
rill. 6

41
47
44
46
39
41
38
46
E48
47
47

1,247
1,134
1,407
1,521
01,566
1,399
1,447
1,500
rl,26l
rl,502
pl,533

104.2
0113.5
105.7
112.9
103.6
104.4
106.5
103.1
r!07.8
r!07.9
p!09.9

( Thous . )
+19
+20
+19
+18

+19
+17
+14
+10

1961

February
April
Mav
June
July
October

1.82
1.92
2.24
2.13

©+6
+10
+10
+10

1962

April
May
July
September

2.32
2.00

02.32

December
1

See "Important Features and Changes For This Issue," page ii.




+11

0+11
+10

Basic Data

21

Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by ED ;
*.
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5t 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
13. Number
of new business incorporations

Year and
month

(Number)

1959

February
March
April
May
June
July
August. ........
September
October
December
1960
February
March. . *
April
May

•

July
October
November
December
1961
January
March
April

. ..

Ifey

June
July
October
November
December
1962
January
March
April
May
June
July
August
October

(Mil. dol.)

17. Price
per unit of
labor cost
index

(Number per (Ann. rate,
bil. dol. ) (1957-59=100)
week)
$
101.2
29
102.0
27
24.1
102.2
25
103.6
26
103.9
26.6
27
103.0
22
101.9
27
100.9
32
23.9
101.0
25
100.8
24
100.0
29
23.3
102.0
30

16,346
16,255
16,548
16,604
16,296
15,204
15,658
15,813
15,728
15,383
15,695
15,959

63.75
53.26
60o23
63.08
48.96
51.25
54.47
54.50
61.51
55.98
56.01
64.04

16,561
15,274
15,233
15,280
15,176
15,630
15,828
15,114
15,112
15,240
14,281
14,167

52.88
57.60
61.57
63.71
76.52
©131.31
71.04
94.66
86.02
85.98
80.44
82.78

29
27
30
30
32
36
38
36
43
©43
37

©13,492
14,601
14,658
15,327
15,225
15,342
15,539
15,213
15,419
016,286
16,149
1*5>,818

80.16
84.45
111.36
79.07
84.09
87.05
80.52
99.41
124.11
74.04
112.36
068.94

38
42
40
39
41
41
41
35
40
43
39
38

15,124
15,809
15,713
15,402
15,260
14,904
15,247
15,104
15,249
15,373
14,849

104.72
87.36
71.20
111.67
95.62
91.89
107.22
142.00
102.08
125.36
92.63

37
032
37
38
37
42
37
43
41
48
42

December 19, 1962.




14. Current 15. Business 16. Corpoliabilities failures
rate profits
of business with liabil- after taxes
ities of
failures
$100,000 and
over

a

24.9
23.5
21.9
21.7

©20.322.9
23.7

©26.3

25.6
26.1
26.1

103.6
102.9
102.7
102.1
101.5
101.1
101.5
100.7
100.8
101.0
101.2
100.1

©99.6
99.9
99.8
100.9
101.1
101.7
102.3
103.4
103.6
103.2
102.9
103.2
102.2
102.4
102.8
101.9
102.2
102.3
103.4
r!02.1
®rl05.0
r!03.8
p!04.1

18. Profits
(before taxes ) per dol.
sales, all
mf g . corporations

22. Ratio,
profits to
income originating, corporate, all
industries

19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks*

(Cents)

( Percent)

(1941-43=10)

8.9

10.4

9.8

11.1

8.4

10.0

8.1

9.6

8.8

10.0

8.0

9.4

7.8

8.9

7.3

8.8

©6.6

©8.2

7.6

9.1

7.9

9.3

08.7

010.0

8.1

9.5

8.2

9.6

8.1

9.6

55.62
54.77
56.15
57.10
57o96
57.46
59.74
59.40
57.05
57.00
57.23
59.06
58.03
55.78
55.02
55.73
55.22
57.26
55.84
56.51
54.81
©53.73
55.47
56o80
59.72
62.17
64.12
65.83
66.50
65.62
65.44
67.79
67.26
68.00
71o08
071.74
69.07
70.22
70.29
68.05
62.99
55.63
56.97
58.52
58.00
56.17
60.04
^2.58

Basic Data

22

Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by BE ;
*.
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month

1959
January. .......
February. ......
March
April
May
June
July

21. Change in
bus. inventories, farm and
nonfarm, after
valuation adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
+6.4
+11.5
+1.1

September
+7.1

31. Change in
book value of
manufacturing
and trade inventories,
total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

20. Change in
book value of
mf rs . ' inventories,
purchased
materials
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol. )

26. Buying policy, production
matls., percent
reporting commitments 60
days or longer*
( Percent
reporting)

32. Vendor
performance,
percent
reporting
slower
deliveries*

25. Change in
manufacturers '
unfilled orders, durable
goods industries

( Percent
reporting)

(Bil. dol.)

23. Index of
industrial
materials
prices*

(1957-59=100)

+3.5
+6.2
+6.6
+14.1
+3.7
+11.4
+6.4
-0.2
-5.1
+0.6
-2.5
+12.3

+2.4
+2o4
+3.3
+3.5
+4.1
+6.1
+0.3
-2.5
-5.2
-3.2
+0.5
+2.4

60
66
65
68
71
66
67
64
72
66
66
67

58
62
62
62
62
62
60
62
64
64
56
50

+0.88
+1.03
+0.86
+0.47
-0.17
+0,10
-0.13
+0.02
+0.45
+0.64
-0.05
-0.12

99.6
99.5
101.1
102.1
102.8
103.2
103.2
103.7
105.1
105.8
105.9
104.8

+12.8
+11.7
+11.4
+3.2
+8.5
+2.3
-1.5
+0.4
-0.6
+2.4
-2.1
-6.2

+4.6
+1.5
+0.8
+1.0
+0.4
-1.6
-1.4
-1.2
-3.2
-2.4
©-3.4
-0.4

64
64
56
61
55
57
54
50
49
50
50
©4B

44
30
©27
28
32
34
36
40
39
38
38

-0.52
-0.78
-0.77
-0.68
-0.19
-0.22
-0.24
-0.17
-0.13
©-0.77
-0.50
-0.43

105.7
104.3
102.4
103.8
104.1
102.7
101.6
102.1
101.2
99.7
98.5
©96.8

-5.8
-3.2
©-8.7
+4.1
+0.7
+0.4
+4.5
+1.8
0+7.8
+4.2
+6.1
+5.0

-0.3
-1.0
+0.1
-0.1
+0.8
-2.2
+1.1
+0.2
+3.0
+0.5
+0.9
+1.3

51
49
50
57
54
56
56
55
57
59
59
54

38
40
40
47
48
43
49
52
55
55
51
53

+0.01
-0.02
-0.11
+0.42
+0.23
+0.07
+0.49
+0.22
-0.03
+0.33
+0.25
+0.28

97.3
99.3
103.1
104.1
0104.4
101.0
101.7
102.9
102.9
102.3
98.9
101.0

+7.6
+6.3
+4.2
+2.5
+3.1
+4.3
+3.3
-3.0
r+5.7
p*3.9
(NA)

[El+5.0
+2.2
+2.9
+1.0
+0.2
-1.0
-1.5
-1.7
r-0.1
p-0.8
(NA)

57
061
56
55
49
52
58
52
52
55
52

56
056
55
43
46
42
44
44
48
48
43

1960

February
March
April
May

+10.8
+4.4

July
+2.1

October
November .......

-1.1

a

1961

February.
March
April
Itey
June
July

©-3.6
+2.1
+4.0

October
+6.0
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July

0+6.7
+4.0
+1.0

October ........

^•December 17, 1962.




0r+1.21
r+0.22
r-0.33
r-0.43
-0.31
-0.36
+0.29
-0.71
r-0.81
r-0.08
P-0.34

102.9
100.6
100.4
98.3
97.8
95.4
94.2
94-5
94.0
94.9
96.4
*95.5

Basic Data

23

Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( )
* . Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs are indicated by [E3 ;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 4 )
5 . Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.

NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and
month

1959
January

March
April
May
June
July
August. ........
September.
October
November
December. ......
1960
February
March
April
May

September
October
November
December
1961
January
March
April
May
July
August
October

1962
January
February
March
April
May

July
October

41. Number
of employees
in nonagricultural
establishments
( Thous . )

43. Unem42. Total
nonagri cul- ployment
rate, total1
tural employment,
labor force
survey1
( Thous . )

40. Unemployment
rate, married males1

45. Average 46. Index of 47. Index of
weekly in- help-wanted industrial
sured unem- advertising production
in newsployment
rate, State papers
programs

( Percent )

( Percent )

( Percent )

(Ann. rate,
(1957=100) (1957-59=100) bil. dol.)

52,446
52,612
52 ,843
53,328
53,606
53,779
53,879
53,357
53,413
53,353
53,622
54,116

59,016
58,974
59,337
59,520
59,668
59,752
60,108
60,103
59,925
60,225
59, 741
60,465

5.97
5.91
5.63
5.23
5.09
5.04
5.15
5.32
5.56
5.72
5.7^
5.41

4.09
4.06
3.69
3.22
3.24
3.12
3.28
3.39
3.68
3.70
4.24
3.36

4.94
4 066
4-32
3.95
3.62
3.53
3.72
4.11
4.15
4.78
5.51
4.76

84.9
91.9
96.7
102.8
102.0
105.6
108.8
105.5
105.1
103.2
104.8
103.5

101.2
103.0
104.8
107.1
109.4
109.?
107.5
104.1
104.0
102.8
103.4
109.5

54,211
54,445
54,427
54,702
54,584
54,538
54,514
54,403
54,301
54,190
53,995
53,707

60,436
60,875
60,488
61,132
61,371
61,293
61,133
61,035
60,996
60,758
61,210
©60,635

5.29
4.91
5.38
5.17
5.H
5. .44
5.44
5.75
5.70
6.14
6.18
6.65

3.35
3.02
3.48
3.34
3.36
3.61
3.70
3.95
3.83
4.32
4.46
4.73

4.27
4.17
4.54
4.26
4.19
4.39
4.67
5.10
5.38
5.68
6.27
©6.33

109.0
110.1
105.4
100.3
99.7
97.8
90.1
89.4
82.6
84.6
82.2
©79.0

111.7
111.0
110.5
109.7
109.9
109.6
109.1
108.7
107.8
107.0
105.4
103.6

53,581
©53,485
53,561
53,663
53,894
54,182
54,335
54,333
54,304
54,385
54,525
54,492

60,852
60,922
61,274
61,101
61,234
61,543
61,371
61,417
61,188
61,369
61,840
61,618

6.65
6.91
6.76
6.93
©7.02
6.86
6.87
6.81
6.86
6066
6.11
6.00

4.72
©4.91
4-65
4-88
4.89
4*77
4.71
4.77
4.60
4.19
4.23
3.90

6.15
6.32
6.26
5.91
5.61
5.32
5.29
5.22
5.10
5-P4
5.08
4.81

79.9
79.3
81.1
79.8
82.0
83.8
82.6
86.1
84.8
95.9
99.1
96.9

©103.3
103.4
103.8
106.6
108.8
110.9
112.0
113.4
112.0
113.5
114.8
115.6

54,434
54,773
54,901
55,260
55,403
55,535
55,617
55,536
r55,583
0r55,620
p55,589

61,690
62,206
62,280
62,236
62,775
62,747
62,809
m 63, 172
62,914
62,915
62,784

5.82
5.58
5.45
5.54
5-43
5.46
IE35.35
5.83
5.78
5.53
5.79

4.71
4.52
4.41
3.93
ED3.82
3.96
4.25
4.41
4.38
4.55
4.84
2
4.54

102.3
105.9
IE106.3
106.1
106.0
98.5
97.9
97.0
r92.8
r96.8
p95.9

114.3
116.0
117.0
117.7
118.4
118.6
119.3
rl!9.7
(Ejrll9.9
119.5
pl!9.5

3.80
3.40
3.47
3.72
©3.37
3.64
3.52
3.71
3.46
3.41
3.68

1
Beginning with April 1 6 , the 1 6 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series,
9 2
90
the 1 5 Census is used as the benchmark,
9 0
ended December 1, 1 6 .
92




50. Gross
national
product in
1954 dollars

421.7

434.0
427.6
431.1

440.9
442.3
439.7
437.7

©433.9
443.9
450.4
463.4

467.4
470.8
[3471.6

Prior to April 1962,

Basic Data

24

Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by HO ;
*.
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14-, 15, 40, 43, 4 ) Series numbers are for identification
5.
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators — Continued
Year and
month

49. Gross national product
in current
dollars

57. Final
sales
(series 49
minus 21)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

472.0

465.5

487.8

476.3

482.7

481.5

488.5

481.4

501.7

490.8

504.8

500.4

503.7

501.5

503.3

50^.4

©500.8

©504.4

513.1

511.0

August

522.3

518.3

October
November

538.6

532.6

545.0

538.3

552.0

547.9

0555.3

0554.2

51. Bank
52. Personal
debits outside income
NYC, 343
centers

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

53. Labor
54. Sales of
55. Index of
income in
retail stores wholesale
mining, manuprices except
facturing, and
farm products
construction
and foods
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Mil. dol. )

(1957-59£100)

1959

February
March
April
May
June
July

September
October
December
1960
February
March
April
May
July

September
October
December
1961
January
February
March
April
toy
July

1,577.3
1,609.4
1,627.7
1,656.1
1,638.3
1,639.2
1,685.6
1,658.8
1,654.1
1,668.0
1,692.9
1,699.6

372.1
374.7
378.4
382.3
384.8
387.0
387.4
384.3
384.9
385.4
389.7
395.5

100.3
101.3
103.3
105.0
106.1
107.1
106.6
103.6
103.7
102.9
104.3
107.7

17,455
17,575
17,914
17,953
18,222
18,189
18,296
18,110
17,784
18,341
17,842
17,485

100.4
100.8
101.0
101.2
101.5
101.4
101.5
101.4
101.5
101.5
101.5
101.5

1,692.2
1,765.4
1,715.2
1,731.2
1,731.2
1,739.0
1,714.0
1,771.8
1,766.5
1,738.0
1,758.9
©1,742.3

395.7
395.2
395.3
400.2
401.6
402.5
402.4
403.2
403.8
404.7
403.8
©402.6

108.7
108.5
107.9
108.3
108.8
108.4
108.3
107.6
107.0
106.9
105.5
103.7

18,100
18,161
18,219
18,860
18,428
18,466
18,118
18,201
18,104
18,543
18,398
17,887

101.5
101.4
101.4
101.4
101.2
101.3
101.3
101.3
101.1
101.2
101.1
101.0

1,786.2
1,755.0
1,785.1
1,781.8
1,829.3
1,824.0
1,839.9
1,832.7
1,848.2
1,904.6
1,903.8
1,916.9

403.4
404.2
406.7
410.6
413.3
416.4
U17.5
418.3
419.7
423.6
427.8
430.5

104.0
©103.3
104.2
106.0
107.1
108.5
108.9
108.5
108.3
110.1
111.7
111.8

©17,773
17,786
18,117
17,851
17,985
18,189
18,017
18,172
18,131
18,577
19,098
18,827

101.0
101.0
101.0
100.9
100.8
100.7
100.7
100.7
100.8
100.6
100.8
100.9

2,010.0
1,916.7
1,985.5
2,044.5
2,015.3
2,000.3
2,055.1
2,017.1
1,988.6
[R}r2,096.2
p2,090.6

428.8
431.9
435.2
438.3
439.7
440.7
441.9
443.0
443.5
445.6
[H]p447.4

110.8
112.1
113.0
115.0
115.1
114.9
0115.2
115.0
114.8
114.9
plH.9

18,835
18,965
19,266
19,596
19,432
19,089
19,682
19,569
rl9,6l8
r!9,784
0p20,123

100.8
100.6
©100.6
100.7
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.7
0100.9
100.8'
100.8
2
100.7

1

1962

February
March
April
May....
July
August
September
October
December

1
Excludes stepped-up rate of payments and special payments of government life insurance dividends to veterans in
March 1961 ( 1 8 billion) and July 1961 ( 2 6 billion), respectively.
$.
$.
2
Week ended December 11, 1 6 .
92




Basic Data

25

Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSIKESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by HO ;
*.
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5t 14, 15, 40, 43, 4 ) Series numbers are for identification
5.
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Lagging Indicators
Year and
month

1959

61. Business
expenditures
on new plant
and equipment,
total

62. Index of
wage and
salary cost
per unit of
output, total
manufacturing

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(1957-59=100)

30.60

March
April
May

32.50

July

August. ........

33.35

October
November.

33.60

98.9
98.8
98.7
97.6
97.5
98.3
99.2
100.1
100.2
100.2
101.5
98.7

63. Index of
64. Book value
labor cost per of manufacunit of output, turers' inventotal GNP
tories, all
manufacturing
industries
(1957-59=100)

100.5
101.0
102.5
102.7

(Bil. dol.)

65. Book value 66 . Consumer
of mfrs.' in- installment
ventories of debt
finished goods,
all manufacturing ind.

(Bil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

49.5
49.9
50.5
51.1
51.6
52.1
52.2
52.1
51.9
51.5
51.6
52.4

18.8
19.1
19.2
19.3
19.4
19.3
19.3
19.4
19.6
19.6
19.7
20.1

33,391
33,763
34,171
34,609
35,064
35,558
36,093
36,704
37,271
37,785
38,203
38,534

53.3
53.9
54.3
54.7
55.0
55.1
54.9
55.0
54.7
54.4
54.0
53.7

20.4
20.6
20.8
21.0
21.2
21.3
21.4
21.6
21.9
21.9
21.9
21.8

38,897
39,366
39,773
40,303
40,608
40,907
41,175
41,401
41,627
41,799
41,961
42,079

53.7
53.6
©53.3
53.4
53.4
53.4
53.5
54.0
54.4
54.8
55.0
55.2

21.8
21.8
21.7
21.7
21.5
21.5
©21.5
21.7
21.8
21.9
21.9
22.0

42,070
41,993
41,980
41,873
41,885
41,885
©41,857
41,901
41,887
42,068
42,368
42,632

55.7
56.2
56.6
56.7
56.8
56.9
57.0
57.0
r57.2
0P57.2
(NA)

22.1
22.1
22.2
22.2
22.3
22.4
22.5
22.6
r22.7
(Ep22.7
(NA)

42,847
43,083
43,352
43,869
44,282
44,600
44,941
45,327
45,492
045,909
(NA)

67. Bank rates
on short-term
business
loans, 19
cities*
(Percent)

4.51
4.87
5.27
5.36

1960

February

35.15

April
36.30

May

July
35.90
September
November
December

35.50

96.7
98.1
98.5
99.1
99.6
100.1
99.8
100.5
100.4
100.2
100.4
101.0

103.2
104.3
105.4
105.0

5.34
5.35
4.97
4.99

1961

January
33.85

March
April

©33.50

Jfey

June
July
34.70
October
December.

35.40

100.9
101.1
101.2
100.0
99.6
98.8
98.3
97.4
©97.3
97.5
98.0
97.5

106.1
105.8
105.8
• ©104.7

4.97
4.97
4.99
©4.96

1962

January.
February
March
April
May

35.70
36.95

July

August
October
November

[338.35
^8.35
2
37.70

Anticipated.
lst quarter 1963, anticipated.

2




98.0
98.2
97.7
98.7
98.7
98.6
97.6
[H]r98.9
r96.4
r97.3
P97.1

105.5
106.9
0107.6

4.98
05.01
4.99

Basic Data

26

Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by (El ;
*.
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 4 ) Series numbers are for identification
5.
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance
Year and
month

1959

February
March
April
May
June
July
September
December
1960
February
March
April
May
July
October
1961
January
February

April
Nfe V

June
July
September
October

1962
January.

March
April
May
June
July
October
December

86. Exports,
excluding
military
aid shipments,
total
(Mil. dol.)

87. Gen- 88. Mereral
chandise
imports, trade
total
balance
(series 86
minus 87)

89. Excess,
receipts(+)
or payments
(-) in U.S.
balance of
payments

82. Federal cash
payments
to the
public

83. Federal cash
receipts
from the
public

84. Federal surplus (+)
or deficit (-)

95. Surplus
(+) or deficit (-),
Federal income and
product acct.

(Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate,
(Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.)

1,318.5
1,292.1
1,300.9
1,296.8
1,326.6
1,345.9
1,394.6
1,429.2
1,498.8
1,335.2
1,380.7
1,497.2

1,164.6
1,194.5
1,213.5
1,210.3
1,312.9
1,311.7
1,251.1
1,298.3
1,407.9
1,200.5
1,298.6
1,333.2

+153.9
+97.6
+87.4
+86.5
+13.7
+34.2
+143.5
+130.9
+90.9
+134.7
+82.1
+164.0

1,561.3
1,565.7
1,518.1
1,622.2
1,659.3
1,633.8
1,706.5
1,624.8
1,647.2
1,667.6
1,680.6
1,645.3

1,246.3
1,348.0
1,289.8
1,348.6
1,269.0
1,276.5
1,270.7
1,255.8
1,220.6
1,206.0
1,161.7
1,124.8

+315.0
+217.7
+228.3
+273.6
+390.3
+357.3
+435.8
+369.0
+426.6
+461.6
+518.9
+520.5

1,646.1
1,736.4
1,711.1
1,658.3
1,577.0
1,594.9
1,668.0
1,659.7
1,667.8
1,772.9
1,716.3
1,719.2

1,150.9
1,146.1
1,158.4
1,159.0
1,155.2
1,177.2
1,366.4
1,261.3
1,280.3
1,322.4
1,310.7
1,296.5

+495.2
+590.3
+552.7
+499.3
+421.8
+417.7
+301.6
+398.4
+387.5
+450.5
+405.6
+422.7

1,660.0
1,852.1
1,632.1
1,794.6
1,774.7
1,858.9
1,718.1
1,651.6
1,935.9
1,503.2
(NA)

1,320.1
1,314.1
1,336.1
1,374.2
1,385.0
1,345.8
1,353.4
1,377.0
rl,498.6
1,339.4
(NA)

+339.9
+538.0
+296.0
+420.4
+389.7
+513.1
+364.7
+274.6
r+437.3
-KL63.8
(NA)

-951

^1,062
-1,191
-539

r-680
r-775
r-1,157
r2-l,313

-319
3

+176
-910

-1,408

r-492
r-226
r-719

100.0
96.0
92.7
96.4
95.1
96.2
97.0
96.2
93.2
92.9
99.9
91.2

81.5
84.9
76.8
87.2
86.0
81.2
89.4
92.4
95.7
88.3
96.6
98.8

-18.5
-11.1
-15.9
-9.2
-9.1
-15.0
-7.6
-3.8
+2.5
-4.6
-3.3
+7.6

89.9
97.8
91.9
94.9
94.4
91.9
91.5
97.4
95.0
92.7
102.3
96.0

89.9
96.6
94.2
99.8
102.9
94.8
93.6
104.0
100.5
91.7
103.3
100.4

0.0
-1.2
+2.3
+4.9
+8.5
+2.9
+2.1
+6.6
+5.5
-1.0
+1.0
+4.4

96.8
95.4
107.2
100.7
110.9
105.4
97.5
114.0
101.8
111.1
107.3
103.8

93.1
93.2
89.1
98.0
102.2
95.3
90.3
104.0
100.8
99.1
103.9
102.8

-3.7
-2.2
-18.1
-2.7
-8.7
-10.1
-7.2
-10.0
-1.0
-12.0
-3.4
-1.0

116.1
108.7
107.3
110.2
107.0
106.1
115.3
113.6
106.7
120.5
115.8

100.0
99.9
93.8
109.5
113.2
101.1
109.2
114.0
109.3
107.1
112.1

-16.1
-8.8
-13.5
-0.7
+6.2
-5.0
-6.1
+0.4
+2.6
-13.4
+3.7

-2.6
+1.6
-2.4
-^.0

+8.1
+5.5
+1.5
-0.4

-6.3
-4.2
-3.3
-1.3

-2.4
-0.7
-0.9

•'•Excludes U.S. subscription to International Monetary Fund of $1,375 million in gold and securities.
2
Includes single direct investment transactions of $370 million.
Includes $650 million in special debt payments to the United States.

3




90. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement

(Mil. dol.)
1,330
1,362
1,371
1,398
1,381
1,425
1,202
870
1,319
1,517
1,124
929
937
1,104
1,020
983
1,373
1,269
2,866
1,230
1,206
998
1,559
1,239

1,306
1,476
1,163
1,089
1,117
1,238
1,671
2,237
1,864
1,436
1,372
1,891
1,912
1,147
1,150
1,904
1,075
1,164
2,845
1,365
1,000
1,917
(NA)

Basic Data

27

Table l.-BASIC D.ATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by (El ;
*.
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14-, 15, 40, 43, 4 )
5 . Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance — Continued
Year and
month

1959
January
Iteirch
April

May
July
August. ........
October. .......

91. Defense
Department
obligations,
total

92. Military prime
contract
awards to
U.S. business firms

85. Percent
change in
total U.S.
money
supply

98. Percent 93. Free
change in reserves*
money supply and
time deposits

(Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.)

( Percent )

( Percent ) (Mil. dol. )

81. Index
of consumer
prices

94. Index
of construction
contracts,
total
value

96. Mfrs. 1
unfilled
orders,
durable
goods industries

97. Backlog
of capital
appropriations, manufacturing

(1957-59=
100)

(1957-59=
100)

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

3,538
3,601
3,739
3,620
3,569
3,863
3,729
3,263
3,906
3,802
3,608
3,160

1,465
1,916
1,772
1,762
1,513
1,905
2,249
1,986
1,931
2,123
2,289
1,320

+0.28
-f-0.28
+0.35
+0.07
+0.42
+0.14
+0.42
-0.35
-0.21
-0.21
-0.14
-0.49

+0.48
+0.14
+0.34
+0.19
+0.43
+0.19
+0.29
-0.24
-0.05
-0.14
-0.05
-0.29

-59
-48
-140
-259
-319
-513
-556
-536
-493
-459
-433
-424

101.0
101.0
100.9
101.0
101.2
101.4
101.6
101.7
101.9
102.2
102.2
102.3

98
95
110
118
103
114
115
102
106
110
92
97

44-79
46.00
46.87
47.34
47.17
47.26
47.14
47.16
47.61
48.26
48.20
48.08

3,234
3,439
3,368
3,362
3,677
3,771
5,305
3,824
3,926
3,299
4,109
3,671

1,770
1,740
1,738
1,368
1,811
1,687
2,231
2,302
2,361
1,477
2,127
1,797

-0.14
-0.28
-0.28
-0.14
-0.28
-0.28
+0.21
+0.36
+0.07
+0.07
-0.14
+0.28

-0.14
-0.38
-0.10
0.00
-0.05
-0.05
+0.53
+0.67
+0.38
+0.47
+0.28
+0.52

-375
-365
-219
-194
-33
+37
+120
+247
+414
+480
+614
+669

102.3
102.5
102.6
102.9
103.0
103.1
103.1
103.3
103.2
103.5
103.6
103.8

93
93
100
105
97
108
113
109
107
117
11
1
120

47.56
46.77
46.00
45.32
45.13
44.91
44.67
44.50
44.37
43.60
43.10
42.68

3,621
3,976
3,552
3,449
3,600
3,723
4,314
5,344
4,785
4,191
4,121
4,681

1,944
2,153
1,774
1,882
1,501
1,888
2,066
2,389
2,127
2,847
2,500
2,153

+0.14
+0.28
+0.28
+0.21
+0.21
0.00
+0.07
0.00
+0.42
+0.49
+0.49
+0.55

+0.56
+0.74
+0.51
+0.46
+0.64
+0.36
+0.45
+0.32
+0.58
+0.67
+0.62
+0.57

+696
+517
+486
+551
+453
+549
+530
+537
+547
+442
+517
+419

103.9
104.0
104.1
103.9
104.0
104.0
104.3
104.4
104.5
104.4
104.4
104.4

108
95
104
103
102
11
1
110
116
103
114
116
119

42.69
42.66
42.55
42.97
43.20
43.27
43.75
43.97
43.95
44.28
44.53
44.81

4,449
3,899
3,914
4,491
3,967
3,821
5,821
4,618
3,892
4,760
(NA)

3,429
2,121
2,230
1,855
1,774
1,715
2,047
2,660
2,218
(NA)

+0.14
-0.27
+0.14
+0.27
-0.27
-0.07
+0.07
-0.41
+0.14
+0.55
p+0.55

+0.79
+0.57
+0.82
+0.69
+0.21
+0.42
+0.51
+0.04
+0.46
+0.84
p+0.91

+546
+434
+379
+441
+434
+371
+443
+436
+378
+413
p+467

104.6
104.9
105.2
105.2
105.4
105.3
105.4
105.6
106.0
105.8
(NA)

115
119
131
121
117
120
117
118
113
117
(NA)

46.02
46.24
45.91
45.48
45.17
44.81
45.08
44.37
43.56
43.47
43.13

6.49
7.00
7.48
8.06

1960
January
March
April

May
July
October
November. ......
December

8.05
7.74
7.15
7.07

1961
January
April
lyfey
July
August. ........
September
October

6.72
6.58
6.68
6.83

1962

March
April
Mav
July
September
November




7.15
7.06
7.12

28

Basic Data
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued

Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by ( and current highs are indicated by GH ;
*.
D
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
International comparisons of industrial production
1

Year and
month

1959

April
May
July
September
October
November

121. OECD,
European
countries,
index of
industrial
production

122. United
Kingdom,
index of
industrial
production

123. Canada,
index of
industrial
production

47. United
States,
index of
industrial
product ion

125. West
Germany,
index of
industrial
production

126. France,
index of
industrial
production

127. Italy,
index of
industrial
production

128, Japan,
index of
industrial
production

[1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100)
(Revised)2
(Revised)2
(Revised)2
(Revised)2 (Revised)2
(Revised)2
(Revised)2
98
101
101
98
QQ
98
101
101
105
100
103
100
103
103
100
98
104
105
100
103
103
105
100
102
108
103
1 CO
1 05
105
103
107
101
1 nz
111
105
103
103
109
101
102
115
104
105
104
103
105
110
104
1 05
117
103
105
105
108
14
0
104
101
108
1 O5
14
0
107
104
119
104
121
110
105
109
104
106
106
107
124
107
110
103
108
108
113
108
126
111
117
111
103
108
106
110
11 Q
130
114
10Q
118
115
110
107

1960
111

March
April
May
June
July
August
October

ni
110

n/
116
n ft
n£ i
nA
117

n ft
1 1 ft

109
1 OQ
110
112
112
111
111
112

109
107
108
105

112
110
no

1 05
105.

1 05

105

i n/
104
i n5

112
111
110
110
110
110
1 OQ

113

10Q

11 5

108
107

113
115
115

116
118
118

112
109
110
112
111
115
115
117
11Q

132
136
137
140

124

140

126

143

125
127

145
148
151
151
157
1 5ft

121

127
126
129

11Q

IpQ

1 O/

117

1 2Q

1 ?5

119
121

133

i n5

i nv

118
120
120
122

i n/
1U4

i n3
1 03

104
i n7
i no

126
126
1 O/

1 1Q
11 Q

112

122

121

112

1 ?/

121
121

115

1 03
10/

11 /

116

128

126
127

113

1 11
liA

126

115
lip

126
127

1 1A

117

105

118
122
123
123

1961
i no

February
March
April

1 1Q

Ifey

11Q
ny

11n
11n

i on
iin

i on

July

"1 "1 O

i on

-| 1 Q

11J

i n5
i n5
i n7
i n*7
i no
I'jy
i no

113

1 1Q

September
October
November . . . .
...
December
1962
January
February
April
May
July
August
September
November . . . .
...

i on
1 OO
1 0*3
1
0

1 O7
1<O
1^ 1
1O4
i oy
124

11n
i no
i no
l no
i nft
11n

-\ QC

iin

1 OK

1 1 -2
1.
17

1<O

1^5
125
125
-1 r\f-

1<O
1 O*7
L<Lf
/vrn \
VNA;

T -i -3

1.
15
1 1/
1±4
11C
1 1 )
/VTn \

V«AJ

-1 1 rt

1 1 ft
110
llo
1 1 ft

iiy

-1 -1 Q
-1 -1 Q
l ?
l

/MA \
VWA;

11Q
117
11Q
Il7

T on
i on
120
i on

•"•Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
2
See "Important Features and Changes for This Issue/1 page ii.




1 OQ
1 O5
1<O

1 ?5

1 07
1 Oft

i *5n
-1 OQ
1*V
1 Oft
1 Oft

i ^n
±^u
i *^n
IjU
fNA ^
VJNA;

10Q
1 OQ

i 3n
i 7n
l^U
1. ^
1 ^0
2
1 23
1 73
..
f NA ^
V""J

162
160

1 32
1 33
1 35
1 35
1 37
1 30
1 3Q
1/3
177
1/7

166
166

18
4
1/Q
1/7
1'
4
1 /Q

1QO

1 51
1/5
1 5
4
1/ Q
fNA )
\NA. ^

1Q5

172
1 75

179
182
Ift3
187
1QO

188
1Q3
1 QO
l7<-

17 3
1 Q3
.
1Q/
fN/H
^JNA;

Analytical Measures

29

Table 2.--RECENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises
and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 4,
5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
The month-to-month percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; for example, if the rate decreased by 0.6 percent, the sign of this drop is reversed and shown as 40.6.

Series

Avg.
Measure change,
Mar.
of
change 1948-x to
1961 Apr.

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
2.
30.
3.
4.

Accession rate, manufacturing
Nonagri. placements, all industries...
Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted).
Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries ( inverted )
5. Avg. weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State (inverted).
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,

Percent . . 0.5
6.0
..do
..do
3.4
..do
11.9
..do
..do

19.4
7.0




May
to
June

June
to
July

July
to
Aug.

Aug. Sept. Oct.
to
to
to
Nov.
Sept. Oct

-0.2
-0.5
+0.7
-9.3
-2.3
+2.3
+0.2
+4.5 -10.6
0.0 -12.5 -11.1

0.0
+5.1
+2.8
-20.0

-0.7
-2.4
+0.4
-8.3

+0.7
-5.0
-3.8
+23.1

-1.0
-2.6
+8.4
+10.0

+8.5

-10.3

+5.1

-12.5

-6.3

+13.4

-7.8

-4.8

+1.1

-11.1

-1.7

-2.6

+3.8

0.0

-0.3

+0.3

+1.5

-3.3

+5.4

-2.2

-0.1

+3.5

+0.2

+2.4

+0.4

+1.6

-1.9

+1.6

-1.9

+3.9

+16.3

-4.5

-12.9

+12.1

-9.0

+3.1

+0.5

+0.8

-1.3

-1.6

-0.3

Nov.
to
Dec.2

+0.7

NA
NA
0.0

5.6
-1.7
. .do
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
6.1
machinery and equipment industries... ..do
-2.1
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial buildings.. ..do
-13.4
12.4
10. Contracts and orders for plant and
. . do
-4 8
6L
11. Newly approved capital appropriations,
..do
602 manufacturing corporations3
11.2
27. Buying policy, capital expend., per cent
reporting commitments 6 mo. or more.. ..do
7.6
+4.5
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units
. .do
+8.1
41
29. Index of new private housing units
+6.8
authorized by local bldg. permits.... ..do.
3.9
12. Net change in business population,
3
Thous ....
-2.0
13. Number of new business incorporations. Percent . . 3.0
14. Current liabilities of business
-56.8
16.3
..do
15. No. of business failures with liabil-2.7
17.3
ities of $100,000 and over (inv.)
..do
7.7
do
0.7
-0.9
17. Price per unit of labor cost index.... ..do
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of
7.7
do
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
5.8
. .do
2.6
-3.2
..do
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks
21. Change in bus. inventories, farm and Ann. rate,
3
nonfarm, after val. adjustment *.... bil.dol. 3.1
31. Change in book value of mfg. and
4.0
-1.7
. . do
20. Change in book value of mfrs..1 inven1.7
-1.9
tories, purchased materials*. . . . . ..do
....
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent
6.2
-1.8
report, commitments 60 days or more.. Percent . .
32. Vendor performance, percent report-12.7
11.3
..do
25. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders,
-0.10
Bil. dol. 0.46
-2.1
23. Index of industrial materials prices.. Percent . . 2.2
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cul0.4
+0.7
..do
42. Total nonagri cultural employment,
04
-0 1
..do
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)... ..do
4.7
-1.7
40. Unemploy. rate, married males (inv.).. ..do
5.8
-7.2
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate,
State programs ( inverted )
..do..... 5.6 +10.9

See footnotes at end of table.

1962
Apr.
to
May

+3 1

-13.8

m

-1.0

NA
+0.7

+16.0

-15.2

+5.1

-7.3

+21.1

+4.3

-2.1

+3.0

-10.7

+3.4

+3.7

-15.9

+19.1

+2.1

-8,2

+0.8

+2.0

-3.2

+4.6

+0.1

+1.9

0
-0.9

-2.3

+2.3

-1
-0.9

+1.0

+0.8

-3.4

+14.4

+3.9

-16.7

-32.4

+28.1

-22.8

+26.1

+2.6
+2.0
+0.3

-13.5

+11.9

-16.2
0.0

+4.7

-17.1

+12.5

+0.1

+1.1

-1.3

+2.8

-1.1

+0.3

-0.9

-3.2

+6.9

-1.2

+1.2
+1.1
-7.4

-11.7

+2.4

-2.7

0.0
+2.7

+4.2

-3.C

+0.6

+1.2

-1.0

-6.3

+8.7

-1.8

NA

-0.8

-1.2

-0.5

-0.2

+1.6

-0.7

NA

-10.9

+6.1

+11.5

-10.3

0.0

+5.8

-5.5

-4.2

-8.7

+4.8

O.C

+9.1

O.C

O.C

-0.05 +0.65
-2.5
-1.3

-i.oq

+0.12
-0.5

+0.3

-0.10 +0.73 -0.26
+1.6
-0.5 +1.0

+0.3

+0.2

+0.1

-0.1

+0.1

+0.1

-0.1

+0 9
+0.2
+9.4

0.0
-0.6
-8.C

+0.1
+2.0
+3.3

+0.6
-9.C
-5.4

-0.4
+0.9
+6.7

O.C
+4.3
+1.4

-0.2
-4.7
-7.9

+2.8

-3.7

-7.3

-3.8

+0.7

-3.9

-6.4

-0.9

+6.2

Analytical Measures

30

Table 2.--RECENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises
and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 4,
5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). The month-to-month percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; for example, if the rate decreased by 0.6 percent, the sign of this drop is reversed and shown as +0.6.

Series

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS— Con.
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in

Avg.
Measure change,
of
Mar.
1948change 19611
to
Apr.

1962
Apr.
to
my

May
to
June

June
to
July

July
to
Aug.

Aug. Sept.
to
to
Sept. Oct.

Oct.
to
Nov.

Index of industrial production
Gross national product in 1954 dol.3..
Gross national product in cur. dol.3..
Final sales (series 49 minus 2l)3
Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers..

-7 1
+0.2

nA
+0.6

/ J
-4o ^
+0.2

T
+

/ i
4'-2

n ?
Q
-U .

-Oo3

0.0

-0.7

nQ
+0.3
+0.2
+0.6
+1 1
-1.8
+n ?

-Io4
4-n l

+5.4
4-n ^

-Oo3
4-n 1

Percent . . 3 0
..do
1.2
..do
1.4
..do
1.9
..do
16
..do
1.6
..do
O rj

-0.2
+0.6

-0.1
+0.6
+0.7
+1.3
+1.8

+3.0
+0 7

-1.4
+0.3

4-D 9

+2.7
-f-n i

..do
. . do

t-1.8
•Hi. 7

+0.1
-0.8

•-0 2
-1 8

+0 3
+1 1

-0 ?

—n 2

106

-0 6

+0 1

4-n i
+0 8

00
+1 7

. . do

47.
50.
49.
57.
51.

0 3

+0 1

+0 2

01

+0 1

02

+0 2

01

00

Nov.
to
Dec.2

53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing,
54. Sales of retail stores..
55. Index of wholesale prices except farm

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
67.

86.
88
89.
82.
83.
95.
90.
91.
92.
85.

94.
96.
97.
98.

1 1

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
Business expenditures on new plant
..do
and equipment, total3
3.6
Index of wage and salary cost per
unit of output, total manufacturing.. ..do
Oo7
Index of labor cost per unit of out3
..do
put total GNP
loO
Book value of mfrs.' inventories, all
. . do
0 Q
Book value of mfrs.' inventories of
finished goods, all mfg. industries.. ..do
10
.
. . do
12
Bank rates on short-term business
..do
loans, 19 cities3..
3.0
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
Exports, excluding military aid ship. . do
3.7
..do
3.5
Mil. dol. 5806
Merchandise trade balance^.
Excess of receipts or payments in
. .do
332
Federal cash payments to the public... Percent . . 7.2
Federal cash receipts from the public. ..do
7.5
Ann. rate
Ml. dol. 5.7
Surplus or deficit, Federal income
3 4
3.2
..do
and product account
Defense Dept. obligations, procurement. Percent . .25.4
15.6
..do
Defense Dept. obligations, total
Military prime contract awards to
. .do
29.2
Change in money supply excluding time
. .do
0 22
Mil. dol. 138
Percent . . 0.3
.„ 8.3
Index of construe, contracts, total... ..do
Mfrs.' unfilled orders, dur. goods.... ..do
2.1
Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg... ..do
6.3
Change in money supply including time
. . do
0 19

+3.5
+1.0

0.0

-1.0

o.o

+1.3

-2.5

+0.9

-0.2

+0 7
+0 2

+0 ?

+0 2

+0 2

O

n

+n /

O n

NA.

OoO
+]_ 2

+005
+0 Q

+0o4

+0.4
+0 8

+0.4
+n Q

+0.4
+n /

0.0
+n Q

NA.

oo /
+17 2 -tLtL.l+
+8 8 -10 6
90 1 +162 7 070 c

M
NA
NA.

+0 7

+0.6

m

-0.4

+10.0

-1 1 +/ 7
76
? $
+2.9 +0.8
+0 6
KL24.4 -30.7 +123 / -148 4

Q Q

+1 7

/q-2

+2.7
+16.7

+266
-2o9 -0.8
+3.4 -10.7

+8.7
+8.0

-1.5
+4.4

-6.1 +12.9
-4.1 -2.0

+12.8

+6.9

-11.2

-1.1

+6.5

+2.2 -16.0 +17.1

+1.7
+ 5 '6 -43.5
6 .
+14.7 -11.7

. . -0.2
.
+8*.3 +144.4 -52.0
-3.7 +52.3 -20.7

11

+1Q /

+2Q Q

+0 13 -0 54 +0 20
-7
+62
-63
0.0 +0 2
01
-7.6 -3.3
+2.6
-0.9 -0.7 -0.8
-1.3

+o 14

-26.7 +91.7
-15.7 +22.3

-0 4 8
.

-16.8

0 13

-4 4

+72
+0 1
-2.5
+0.6

16 6

+n *»^
_7
-5#

-3.9
+4.7

NA.
NA

NA
+0 /I
-f-ac
?J

+0 2
+0.9
-1.6
+0.8

+0 /

-4.2
-1.8

n?
+3.5
-0.2

0 48 +0 21 +0 09 -0 47

+o 42

+0 38

•'•This average is based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without
among the series, beginning with the earliest date shown in chart 1 and ending on the
justment made new computations feasible.
Percentage changes cover part of this
figures show change from previous quarter and are placed in middle month of quarter,
shown in the Apr.-May column refers to the change from the 1st quarter of 1962 to the
are the month-to-month (quarter-to-quarter) differences in the figures shown in table
change from 4th quarter 1962 to 1st quarter 1963, based on anticipated data is -1.7.




5

+3.8
-0.1

-0.1

00
-4-C/

NA.
NA
-0.8

0 07

regard to sign.
The period varies
date a revision or new seasonal ad3
period only.
Quarterly series;
Thus the figure for GNP (series 49)
2nd quarter of 1962.
^Figures
5
1.
Anticipated. Percent

Analytical Measures

31

Table 3.-DISTRIBUTION OF HIGHS IN BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS DURING RECENT MONTHS COMPARED WITH PERIODS AROUND
PREVIOUS BUSINESS CYCLE PEAKS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark dates —
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was reached

Business cycle peak
Nov.
1948

July
1953

3d month before business cycle peak

my
1960

July
1957

Aug.
1948

NBER LEADING
12
1

7
1
3
1

4
1

22

1

2
2

2 months

14
2
1
3
2
1

Apr.
1953

0

Percent of series high on benchmark date.

19
16

Feb.
1960

INDICATORS

11
1

3
4

20

1
4
1

12
1

1
1

2
2
3
1

1
2
1
3
2
1

1

4

3
2

Apr.
1957

23
0

2

23
0

19
21

23
0

23
4

1

0

1

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

3

1

2

1
1

1
3

1

1
2

1

6 months
4
1
2

3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was- reached

1

2
3
3

5

11
9

11
27

11
45

2

2
3
2
3
11
27

1
4
4

1
4
4

2
3
3

3
6

11
36

11
36

11
27

11
55

6th month before business cycle peak

Nov.
1959

Jan.
1957

Jan.
1953

May
1948

1

Current expansion

Aug.
1962

Sept.
1962

Nov.
1962

Oct.
1962

NBER LEADING INDICATORS

7 months
6 months

6
1

17
1
1
1

1

19
16

23
4

23
9

2
2
1
2

6

7
4
6

1
2
2

4
2

Percent of series high on benchmark date.

4
4
4
2
4

2
1
2
1
4
1
2
3
3

1
1

9
5

13
**3

9
2
2

3
3

3

**3

3
1

2

23
13

23
4

17
12

3
3

2

23
0

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

1

1

1

1

7 months
6 months

1
4
2

4
3 months
1
5

Percent of series high on benchmark date.

1
1

2
2
3
6

5
3

2
3

11
45

11
55

11
27

11
27

1
1

1

**6

3
11
27

5
1
3
11
27

2
1
2
4
11
36

2
1
2
2
2
11
18

All quarterly series, 1 leading monthly series (series 15), and 1 roughly coincident series (series 40) are omitted
from the distribution.
1
5 series were not available.
2
2 series were not available and 2 series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and
such peaks were disregarded in this distribution.




32

Analytical Measures
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
(Nov.)

(Oct.)

(July)

T

P

(May)

T

P

T

(Feb.)

P

(July) (Apr.)

(Aug.)

P

T
Percentage
Expanding

D1. Av. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg. (21 Indus.)
[3-mo. interval ]

-noo
50

D6. New orders, dur. goods indus. (21 Indus.)
[3-mo. interval ]

Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations
602 cos. [4-quarter interval ]
... 15 indus. [1-quarter interval]
...

D33. Profits, Chicago PAA, percent reporting
higher profits (200 cos.) [1-mo. interval ]

D34. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting
higher profits (700 cos.) [1-quarter interval]

D19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (82 indus.)
[3-mo. interval ]

D23. Industrial materials prices (13 indus. mtls.)
[3-mo. interval ]

D5. Initial claims, State unempl. insur.
(47 areas)-inverted
[3-mo. interval ]

1948 1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

Ste "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.




1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

33

Analytical Measures
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.)

(Oct.)

(July)

T

P

(May)

T

hi

Percentage
Expanding

(F«b.)

P

(July) (Apr.)

(Aug.)

P

T

D41. Employees in nonagr. establishments (30 indus.)
[1-mo. interval 1

D47. Industrial production (24 indus.)
[1-mo. interval ]

D58. Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods (23 indus.)
[1-mo. interval ]

D54. Sales of retail stores (24 types of stores)
[3-mo. interval]

1948

1949

1950

1951 1952

1953

See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.




1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

34

Analytical Measures

CHART 3 • DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED: 1948 TO PRESENT

(Nov.)

(Oct.)

(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

P

T

(May)

P

T

Percentage
Expanding

(Feb.)

P

(July) (Apr.)

T

-•-- • Actual
-*—• Anticipated
•• Change in total carloadings

D35. Net sales, all mfrs. (800 cos.) '
[4-quarter interval]

100

50
0
D36. New orders, dur. goods mfrs. (400 cos.)
[4-quarter interval]

D48. Carloadings (19 mfrd. commodity groups)*
[4-quarter interval]

D61. New plant and equipment expend. (17-22 indus.)
[1-quarter interval ]

100

50
0

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

Data are centered within intervals. Latest data are as follows:

Series number and
date of survey
D35, D36 (October 1962)...
D48 (September 1962)
D61 (August 1962)

Latest interval shown
Actual
3rdQ 1961 - 3rd Q 1962
4th Q 1 960 - 4th Q 1961
1st Q 1962- 2nd Q 1962

Anticipated
1st Q 1962- IstQ 1963
4th Q 1961 - 4 t h Q 1962
3rd Q 1962 - 4th Q 1962

^Increase of 500,000 carloadings plotted at 100; no change at 50; decrease of 500,000 carloadings at 0.




1962

1963

Analytical Measures

35

Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT

Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are centered on the
middle month; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of
the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no
adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of
the indexes shown, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Leading indexes

Year and
month

Dl. Average workweek,
manufacturing
(21 industries)

1-month
interval

3 -month
interval

D6. Value of manufacturers'
new orders, durable goods
industries (21 industries)

1 -month
interval

3 -month
interval

Dll. Newly approved
capital appropriations
a. 602 companies

4-quarter
interval

b. 15 industries
1-quarter
interval

D33. Profits,
Chicago PAA
(200
companies )
1-month
interval

1959

April
May
July
August
October

66.7
73.8
73.8
81.0
45.2
28.6
40.5
31.0
26.2
52.4
52.4
78.6

83.3
81.0
92.9
90.5
73.8
26.2
14.3
21.4
31.0
47.6
69.0
50.0

61.9
73.8
85.7
52.4
40.5
71.4
52.4
9.5
76.2
52.4
42.9
85.7

71.4
100.0
90.5
76.2
42.9
57.1
31.0
33.3
42.9
57.1
66.7
52.4

21.4
19.0
35.7
38.1
78.6
19.0
40.5
26.2
19.0
78.6
16.7
7.1

31.0
7.1
21.4
66.7
54.8
69.0
16.7
14.3
23.8
9.5
2.4
14.3

28.6
61.9
14.3
57.1
54.8
28.6
38.1
71.4
33.3
28.6
61.9
28.6

57.1
28.6
47.6
42.9
50.0
28.6
52.4
38.1
52.4
26.2
35.7
42.9

85.7
78.6
69.0
83.3
50.0
90.5
40.5
42.9
38.1
69.0
78.6
38.1

54.8
95.2
90.5
. 81.0
92.9
69.0
78.6
45.2
78.6
81.0
81.0
21.4

52.4
47.6
78.6
52.4
59.5
57.1
59.5
73.8
57.1
57.1
57.1
28.6

33.3
90.5
76.2
81.0
61.9
66.7
76.2
61.9
61.9
61.9
42.9
47.6

11.9
78.6
76.2
92.9
26.2
38.1
28.6
33.3
r71.4
r2.4
p64.3

19.0
61.9
95.2
85.7
76.2
23.8
19.0
r35.7
r23.8
p28.6

71.4
57.1
45.2
50.0
42.9
38.1
81.0
33.3
33.3
r59.5
P52.4

42.9
61.9
42.9
61.9
38.1
52.4
52.4
r42.9
r47.6
p66.7

60.0
64

73.3
60

70.0
54

26.7
46

48
52
50
56
58
56
54
50
42
40
4
4
48

1960

March
April
May
June
July
September
November . . . .
...

50.0
44

33.3
40

23.3
40

66.7
48

4
6
36
40
4
4
42
4
4
39
34
34
34
28
30

1961
January
March. • • . . .
.
April
May
June
July
September.
October
December

46.7
54

53.3
58

70.0
65

56.7
52

27
31
37
4
6
50
48
42
51
50
47
50
4
4

1962
January
February
April.
May
June
July
August
September

December




66.7
52

26.7

48
4
9
50
52
52
48
40
46
45
42
44

Analytical Measures

36

Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued

Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are centered on the
middle month; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of
the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no
adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of
the indexes shown, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Leading indexes — Continued

Year and
month

D34. Profits, D19. Index of stock prices,
mfg., FNCB
500 common stocks
(around 700
(82 industries)1
corporations)
1-quarter
interval

D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)

D5. Average weekly initial
claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs
(47 areas )
3 -month
interval

1-month
interval

3 -month
interval

86.0
65.1
80.8
54.1
35.3
55.2
81.4
42.4
10.5
53.5
57.0
73.2

86.0
85.5
77.9
70.9
51.2
68.0
66.3
36.0
20.9
26.2
64.0
57.0

50.0
50.0
73.1
50.0
53.8
61.5
50.0
57.7
61.5
53.8
53.8
57.7

53.8
46.2
57.7
73.1
61.5
53.8
57.7
53.8
57.7
53.8
57.7
46.2

91.5
55.3
63.8
83.0
36.2
30.9
45.7
29.8
50.0
17.0
51.1
91.5

80.9
89.4
83.0
87.2
63.8
40.4
25.5
23.4
6.4
17.0
53.2
78.7

28.5
11.2
33.5
52.4
36.5
75.9
32.9
76.5
15.3
23.5
89.4
80.7

27.1
11.8
27.6
41.2
52.4
50.6
63.5
38.8
36.5
42.4
76.5
93.8

69.2
42.3
46.2
53.8
50.0
57.7
46.2
46.2
42.3
23.1
46.2
26.9

53.8
53.8
46.2
46.2
50.0
46.2
38.5
57.7
34.6
42.3
15.4
30.8

34.0
54.8
10.6
47.9
38.3
37.2
55.3
17.0
68.1
42.6
36.2
53.2

83.3
26.2
40.5
14.9
29.8
38.3
19.1
34.0
21.3
45.7
36.2
46.8

87.0
96.3
86.0
72.6
81.1
40.2
42.1
81.1
39.6
45.7
87.8
56.1

96.3
96.3
95.1
93.9
70.7
57.3
57.9
54.9
55.5
62.2
72.6
52.4

38.5
69.2
80.8
65.4
53.8
46.2
50.0
76.9
53.8
38.5
30.8
65.4

46.2
76.9
73.1
80.8
57.7
50.0
53.8
69.2
69.2
42.3
46.2
57.7

59.6
31.9
80.9
40.4
48.9
58.5
51.1
61.7
46.8
78.7
74.5
19.1

46.8
68.1
61.7
66.0
53.2
61.7
68.1
61.7
80.9
87.2
66.0
38.3

26.2
7.
44
48.2
9.1
1.2
1.2
67.7
78.0
34.8
6.7
98.8

39.6
).
78
32.9
0.0
1.2
1.2
8.5
67.1
31.1
72.6

73.1
34.6
46.2
38.5
53.8
23.1
30.8
42.3
50.0
57.7
69.2
2
34.6

61.5
53.8
42.3
50.0
42.3
42.3
23.1
23.1
42.3
65.4
2
73.1

57.4
93.6
38.3
51.1
36.2
16.0
70.2
55.3
44.7
44.7
78.7

68.1
87.2
78.7
29.8
12.8
36.2
44.7
72.3
53.2
61.7

1-month
interval

3 -month
interval

1-month
interval

1959
55

March
April
May

72

July

46

September . . .
...
45

December
1960
49

February
March
April

49

May

July
August

43
44

1961
44

February
March
April
ffa v
June
July
August
October
November

69
56
53

1962
51

February
March
April
May
July

October

56
46

lr
rhe diffusion index is based on 86 components through January 1960; on 85 components, February 1960 to November 1960,
and on 82 components thereafter. 19 components and 5 composites, representing an additional 22 components, are shown in
the direction-of change table (table 6C).
December 17, 1962.




Analytical Measures

37

Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued

Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are centered on the
middle month; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of
the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no
adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of
the indexes shown, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Roughly Coincident indexes

Year and
month

D41. Number of employees
in nonagri cultural establishments (30 industries)
1-month
interval

3 -month
interval

D47. Index of industrial
production
(24 industries)
1 -month
interval

D54. Sales of retail stores
(24 types of stores)

3 -month
interval

1-month
interval

3 -month
interval

D58. Index of
wholesale
prices (23
mfg. indus. )
1-month
interval

1959

February
March
April
Mav
July
August
October
1960
January

March
April
Kfav

July
August . . . . .
....
October

90.0
80.0
88.3
83.3
81.7
75.0
68.3
43.3
60.0
36.7
55.0
78.3

90.0
88.3
83.3
90.0
88.3
83.3
65.0
58.3
38.3
45.0
58.3
61.7

58.3
62.5
75.0
87.5
89.6
58.3
72.9
27.1
41.7
35.4
52.1
91.7

72.9
79.2
87.5
91.7
83.3
75.0
60.4
41.7
22.9
35.4
56.2
83.3

37.5
58.3
83.3
47.9
68.8
39.6
66.7
39.6
29.2
39.6
77.1
41.7

81.2
81.2
77.1
89.6
58.3
66.7
29.2
50.0
45.8
62.5
54.2
58.3

64.7
84.8
76.4
61.9
81.7
69.3
54.8
45.5
58.1
56.4
58.6
42.4

56.7
83.3
53.3
55.0
50.0
30.0
35.0
30.0
21.7
30.0
20.0
11.7

80.0
81.7
66.7
58.3
40.0
38.3
25.0
25.0
30.0
23.3
15.0
16.7

64.6
12.5
50.0
64.6
68.8
60.4
50.0
31.2
18.8
47.9
27.1
20.8

64.6
35.4
43.8
77.1
79.2
66.7
35.4
10.4
20.8
12.5
20.8
12.5

68.8
50.0
45.8
79.2
14.6
60.4
50.0
41.7
50.0
62.5
37.5
31.2

37.5
47.9
79.2
54.2
62.5
20.8
45.8
41.7
45.8
45.8
43.8
41.7

60.3
45.6
56.8
46.7
40.4
45.4
39.6
32.5
32.0
36.9
32.5
46.7

33.3
33.3
75.0
66.7
85.0
86.7
58.3
53.3
36.7
65.0
70.0
53.3

11.7
41.7
60.0
83.3
90.0
83.3
83.3
46.7
50.0
63.3
68.3
53.3

47.9
29.2
58.3
89.6
83.3
87.5
75.0
64.6
22.9
87.5
70.8
62.5

29.2
54.2
79.2
91.7
93.8
83.3
100.0
60.4
70.8
75.0
83.3
52.1

58.3
43.8
79.2
27.1
43.8
79.2
41.7
68.8
33.3
79.2
66.7
45.8

35.4
72.9
43.8
58.3
54.2
70.8
83.3
35.4
75.0
70.8
89.6
70.8

38.6
41.3
54.6
59.7
49.1
51.9
50.4
52.1
58.1
41.2
36.9
53.3

33.3
81.7
81.7
90.0
70.0
63.3
48.3
40.0
r30.0
r46.7
P36.7

60.0
75.0
. 91.7
88.3
80.0
68.3
55.0
r25.0
r25.0
p21.7

18.8
70.8
60.4
70.8
70.8
62.5
66.7
r54.2
r68.8
r37.5
P43.8

33.3
43.8
83.3
81.2
75.0
79.2
r62.5
r70.8
r47.9
P43.8

62.5
62.5
62.5
60.4
39.6
22.9
83.3
56.2
r50.0
r33-3
P75.0

60.4
64.6
91.7
81.2
39.6
37.5
62.5
r81.2
r45.8
p64.6

66.8
41.3
63.3
48.8
66.4
47.6
33.0
r32.5
34.2
r34.7
P36.9

1961

February
March
April
May
July

August.
October
1962

February
March
April
Mav
July
August
October.
November
December




38

Analytical Measures
Table 5.-DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED, FOR 4 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT

Numbers are centered within intervals: 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed
in the 1st month of the 2d quarter, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.

Year and
month

D35. Net sales,
manufactures
(800 companies)
4-quarter
interval

D36. New orders, durable manufactures
(400 companies)
4 -quarter
interval

Anticipated

D48. Freight carload ings
(19 manufactured
commodity groups )
4-quarter
interval

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

D61. New plant and
equipment expenditures
(16 industries)
1-quarter
interval

Change in
total (000)

Anticipated

84.4

81.2

87.5

75.0

84.4

65.6

71.9

75.0

84.4

71.9

71.9

56.2

71.9

34.4

43.8

28.1

37.5

46.9

53.1

56.2

62.5

59.4

65.6

65.6

62.5

68.8

Actual

Actual

68.8

Actual

68.8

1959
84

82

84

52.6

78.9

-173

76

87

76

84

42.1

84.2

-73

78

82

76

77

57.9

89.5

+8

68

84

64

82

26.3

57.9

61

82

58

76

31.6

68.4

+96

53

74

51

68

31.6

78.9

-103

50

70

50

68

21.1

50.0

-279

60

68

62

68

26.3

42.1

-212

72

82

72

78

36.8

89.5

-28

74

83

73

78

68.4

73.7

+78

82

88

82

86

(M)

89.5

+125

81

86

78

82

89.5

+62

80

March
April
May

88

88

76

84

94.7

-67

80

74

89.5

r+9

74

70

JUly

October
-146

1960

April
May
July
October
1961

March. .
April. .
May
JUly

October
1962

March
April.
May

65.6

July

August
•October




71.9

Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT
A.-(Dl) Average Workweek of Production Workers, Manufacturing
3 -month spans

1961

1960

1962

21 industry components

Percent ris ing

50 31

7 21 67 55 69 17 14 24 10

2 U 55 95 90 81 93 69 79 45 79 81 81 21 19 62 95 86 76 24 19 36 24 29
- -

+ + + 0-

- -

All manufacturing industries.

+

_

o -

DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery,' except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries..

+

00-

- - + + + + _
+
_

+ 0 - - _ _ _ + _

- - + +

+-

+

_--

+ + + + + +
+

0

-

+

- 0

+

-0

+

+

NONDURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and allied products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products
Rubber products
Leather and leather products




rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.

+

_ _ _

- o +
0

-

-

-

-

-

+

+ +

- - + + + + - - - + o + o
o + + + + --

- o +

+ - - - + + +
- o +
0

-

Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.

c/>
c

Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
B.-(D6) Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods Industries.
3 -month spans

a , a h f - i > > j 3 r - i b f l P < - P t > o
» ? f 2 S ' § ' S > § » ? 5 c o o S S

I
- I p > o Ia

I

I
I
a h I * -I i >I s a i -I i b p Ic i I4

saas'fifi^fi^sla
r

Oct-Jan

1960
21 industry components

*
i
»

t*
i
0

1961
^ >> t3 H
i ,0 ?
i
C

s •§ s s *

1962
«1D

ft

-P

>

O

'H ^ ^

I & A & i!

a ^ h f n l > > C r H b O f t - P > 0

^ i 1S 1 ^ ^1 ^ 1 ^ 1^ c g1 ^ 1 i g ^
S 1
1
1
1 1

- P ^ O C ^ ^ ^ ^ i C r H b p a

I t l ^ I I. ( S S a ^ S S ^ S ^ ^ I ^

52 57 29 48 43 50 29 52 38 52 26 36 43 33 90 76 81 62 67 76 62 62 62 43 48 43 62 43 62 38 52 52 43 48 67

Primary nonf errous met&Ts
Radio

television

+ +

.... . . . .

and eouipment

-

+

+

• » • - -

Aircraft
Other transportation equipment*
Stone, clay, and glass products

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

+ + ! * : ; : ; ; + ""!

+

+

. .
-4-

4-

-4-

J-

General industrial machinery*

4-

+

+

+

+

+

^ ~

+

+

.

+ + + + +

~~l~

.

^

S
o

s

Office machines*




O

4-

-1-

Other machinery*

rt
^

+

o
. + _. + _

_

-

_

_ _ _ + + + _ +

_

_

+ +

- _ _ _

+

_

+

+

+ •

+ » rising; o « unchanged; - - falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
1
Includes durable industries not available separately.

Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
C.-(D19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks

3 -month spans

1961

1960

16
92

1
24 industry components

si fi i f ii ^ i f i 'i ^ ig ^ ai s is ai
i
i
i
-P

>

fch

O C . Q

M

P3 r-4

>»

CU

SSg.S.SfiS'fi.S.SfS

7 > ^
f 0
-P

<s £ a

Pi cfl
I
I

J
I

j d
I
I

<t>
I

o
I

O
I

O
I

C ^ j f H ^ ^ f l r H M f X

^ f e S ^ j S H j ^ - S w

C5.Q

Li

&<

b s d i - 4 h O Q j - P ! >

O

S p >S ^ , QI ^ I i Cg c S p Ca
- ^ O C ^ ^ ^ > c r H b ^ X

.SSS4SS^^45l«

57 27 12 28 41 52 51 64 39 36 42 76 94 96 96 95 94 71 57 58 55 56 62 73 52 40 38 33 0 1 1 8 67 31 73
4 - _ - _ - 4 - 4 -

_ - - 4 -

- - - - - - -

Mining and smelting
Coal, b ituminous
Food composite
Tobacco ( cigarette manufacturing )

+

+

- - - O

+ + - - - - - _ + + +

+ + +
+ + + + + + + + +
- - - - - _ - _ _ - - 4 -

1

4-4-4+

_

-

_

_

_

_

_

_

-

_

4

-

4-4-

4-44- 4- 4- + +
44-4-44 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 " 4 - - -

+ + + - - - . - _ + - +
- - - . - - - - _ 4 - + +
- - - - - - - -

"

4-

, .

+

4-

4-44-

Ele ctroni cs

+ +

J1 •

4. *•! * " • * •

V.

Telephone companies
Electric companies
Natural gas distributors
Retail stores composite

*

J

* * 4-

•

• »

4-

+4-4-

4-

4-4-4-

+

---

++

+

- O

4-

4-4-4-

+

+

- - -

--

+

_-

+

_

-

-

+ + 4-

+
+

+
+

- -

+ + +

+

4-4-4-4-4-

- +

+

+

+

+
+

-

4 - - - - - -

**

__-

+

-

-

- _ - 4 - - + _ - - - -

-

- 4-

_ - -

+ +

+ - +
4-- +

+ « rising; o * unchanged; - * falling. Series components are not seasonally adjusted.
^•The 24- components shown here include 19 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 22 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index.
2
Based on 86 industries through January 1 6 ; on 85 industries, February 1 6 to November 1 6 ; and on 82 industries thereafter.
90
90
90




«-»
^

4+

4-

+

o

4-

4-4+ +

D

+

+ +

4-

+

_ _ +

+

_ _ _ 4 - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 4 -

C
r?

Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
D.~(D23) Index of Industrial Materials Prices

3 -month spans

1960
13 industrial materials components

H

1

3

p t i S < l J S » - 5

1

1

1

1

1

|

1

- 3

4

1

^ C O O S Q

1

1

1

^ > > O C , Q M h > j j 3 r H W )

1
P <
5

I^SS^Sg^S^.Sfco
Percent rising

§ 'S h
7(£ 2
i
i
•^

>

O

& *** §
<1 H »-»
i
i i
C3

ft

}H

S & & £ £ fi

H

bD

ft

-P

>

O

<H * $ * $
fH

>>

C

H

<J

^

I-D

»?

fi,Q

h

ft

| » C : r H

b ) D 4 - P

?»"b

t ? f 2 J ^ < » ; S » ? » ? « 3 c o o 2 : ^
i
i
i
i
i i
i
i
i
i i i
• p > o c , o v i f H > > C H W ) a <

M CX
«§ CO . C 3 S ( S » ? f e ^ - §

<

S » ? 3 5 ^

46 54 54 46 46 50 46 38 58 35 42 15 31 46 77 73 81 58 50 54 69 69 42 46 58 62 54 42 50 42 42 23 23 42 65 73

Copper scrap ( Ib . ^ . . . . . . *. . ..

....

.
_ _ _

Steel scrap (ton)
Tin (Ib ).
.
Zinc (Ib.)

1962

1961

firQ^£H>lCi-lhOQ<-P>O

.

+

0

+ o o - - - -

-

+

- + + + o

-

- -

0

O

0

0

-

-

+ + - - + + + •*-_ + _

+

.

-

+

+

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

-

- o o o o o o o +
- - + + + +

+

+

0

-

-

-

0

0

0

O

O

O

0

~
+

+

+

+ _

D

Print cloth (vd ) averaue
Wool tops ( Ib . )
Hides (Ib. )
. . .
.
Rosin ( 100 Ib . )
Rubber (Ib )
Tallow (Ib . )




O

...

+

+

0

0

O
+

O - - O
_ - h + -h

+
+

+ + + + + + _ _ _ _ _

.

-t- = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
*Data for December 17.

+

-

- - + + +

+ + + -

Series components are not seasonally adjusted.

-

-

+

0

0

O
-

O
H

O
4

O
-

-

_

O

4

+ - - H + +

O
-

0

O
-

Q
-

+

*^<
J*.

o

O
-

O

~

~

>—

-

+

+

+

S
<*Y»

C/3

c
l-»

n>

Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
E.—(D5) Average Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, State Programs

3 -month spans
0) X

f-\ cd
cd !H

1960
26 area components

C

,
0

b

1961

<u

1962

P-I

o

f-t tsl
0 -H
,£2 CO

S &£
i > 0
i i
-P

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

1

1

1

i

1

1

I

i

1

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

i

1? ^3 ^

79 83 26 40 15 30 38 19 34 21 46 36 47 47 68 62

+ NA NA N A - -

66 53 62

68 62 81 87

-

- + + 4-

—
—
4*
• 4*
4 - - - _ - _ +

4-

66

—

4-

4-

38 68 87 79 30 13 36 45 72 53 62

-

4-

4-

4-

- 4 - 4 - 4 - - -

-4-4-

+•

- - - + -

+

-

+

4-

4-(_

-

4-j44-

44-

-4-4-4_
4-4-4-4- 4 - 4 - 4 - - -

_ _
4-4— 4-4-4- —
- - + - +

4444-

NORTHEAST REGION

+
+

7
16 Buffalo*
11
New York
21
Philadelphia*
8 Pittsburgh**
23 Providence**

4+
4+

+ - 4«. — —
+ - 44- - - - - 4 - 4 + _ _ _ _
+ - + +
+ - +

+
_

_ + + +
+ - - _ _

—

—

—

___
+ 4-

4_j_
4-4-4- - 44- 4- - - 4- - 44- — 4-

_j_
44-

_^_
^.
4- 44- 4-

44-j-

44+

4-

4-

4-

4-

44-

44-

f
-f
f

- 44- 44- 4-

4-

44444-

-f
-*•
-1-

- 4- +
4- + 4444- 444-

- 4 - 4 - 4 - - - - _ 4 - + +
4 - 4 - + - - - + - + + •*•
+ _ _ + _ _ _
+ + + +
_ + + + 4 - _ - _ - + -

NORTH CENTRAL REGION

3
18
10

Chicago
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Columbus
Detroit**
Indianapolis
Kansas City

+ NA NA N A - _ _ _ - _ o -

-4-4-

_ _ 4 - _
+ 4-4- + - - + + - __+
_ + _ +
4-4-4-

-4-44-4-4-

...

5
25
22
15
13 Minneapolis
9 St . Louis

- - _ + +
+ - + _ +
_ + _ + _
___
+ _

-

-

4-

444-

+
4-

444-

44-

4-

__
- +
+ +
_ +
+ -

+
4-

-

-4-4- - 4-

-

- NA NA N A -

+

4 - - - - - -

444-

4-

4-

444-

444-

4-

4-4-44-4-4-

444-

4-

+
-

--+ +
+ -+ +
--+
+ + + 4
+ -+
+ +

+ +

—

+ +
+ ++- - +
- -

+ + +

Atlanta
Baltimore
Dallas
Hous ton

2
24
6
19

Los Angeles
Portland
San Francisco
Seattle

.

.

+ _ _ _ - + - + _
+ _ - _ _ +
- _ _
- NA NA N A - - - - - - + +

4-

4-

4-

4-

- - 4- 44 - 4 - 4 - 4- 4 - 4 - 44- - 4- 4-

44-

4-

4-

4-

4-

44-

4-

4-

4- - 44-4-44- - 44- 4- -

44-

-4-4-

4-

C

fl

- + - + - + - 4 - + +
+ + + - - 4 - - + - +

^

+ +
_ +
- +
+ +

+ + _ _ + 4 - - H _
+ + __
- J - 4 - + + + + + __+ +
--_

+
+

WEST REGION
_ _ _ _ -

+

- _ 4 -

-

4-

4- - 4-4-4-

4-

4-

44-

44-

+
+
+

-+ +
- +
+ +

+
+
+

+ - - + + +
- - + + ++
-- + _ +
-- _ + +

4+
+

- = rising; o = unchanged; + - falling.
Because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises, it is inverted to show a comparable activity pattern.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
NA = not available.
*Denotes areas of substantial unemployment (6 percent or more) in November 1962 as designated by BES. **Denotes areas of substantial (6 percent or more)
andipersistent unemployment in November 1962 as designated by BES.
The percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas. Directions of change are shown separately for only the largest 26.




S
^

-—

SOUTH REGION

20
12
17
14

r»
^
<*>
^—

+ + + - - + + _ +

--

4-

+ +
+ +
+ +
__+ +

^
D
£~

Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
F.—(D41) Number of Employees in Nonagricultural Establishments

1-month spans

1960
30 industry components

C

r

Q ^ ^ i t >

1961

e ! i H b p P 4 - P > O

>

C >

/

1962

j Q > L , f H > > C H b O Q

<

- P > 0

C ^ l

h f H > > j 3 r H b p Q

- P > 0

<

4 e1 £1 41 £ 1 £ 1 3 1 f 1. S S £ £ ^ ^ S ^ ^ ^ ^1 ^1 ^1 S ^ g ^ f 1 i S ^1 S 1 ^ 1^ I c1 g 1c S S g
1
1
1
1
1
1
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 J
1
1
1 1 1
O C , Q f H f H > > C H b p O
- P >
0 { 3 , Q
^
fn
> > a i H
bOCX-P
>
o C
Q ^ J n >
C ! H t » o a , - P >
S3£g3£33i$c3:g ^ ^ £ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 5 ^ 8 : 8 S ^ ^ S ^ g ^ - S ^ ^ c S ^
<

r

>

57 83 53 55 50 30 35 30 22 30 20 12 33 33 75 67 85 87 58 53 37 65 70 53 33 82 82 90 70 63 48 40 30 47 37
— + + + + + +
+ + —
+ + + 4~ +
n
+ + —
+

'

J*

f

.

+

+

-

0

-

+

+

OO

+

O

_
+

+
o

_
+

+
+

_
_

_
_

_
_

_

_
_

_
_

_
_

_
_

O Q
+ -

+
+

-

-

+

-

^

+

- -

o

+ o
•+•

-

o

-

-

-

-

-

-

O + O +
+ -O
+

-

-

4 - -

+

+

-

+

-J-4-

+

+

-

+

-

+

O +

+

+

-f

+

- * - _ - -

+

+

- + + + + + + + - + _
+ + + + + + _ _ - + - + + + + + + - + - -

0

+

+

+

+

+

-

-

+

--

+

O

-I--

+

+

-0

o
+

+
O

-•*••*• + o
O - - H O O

- - - - O - O - -

O + H - _ - 4 - +

+
+

+
4-

+
+

_

+

-

_

_

_

+

- - 0
-+
+ + -

O O + + + + 00+ - I - - O
-

+

0

-

-

+

-

0

-

_

-

OO

+

-

_

+

- - 0 + 4- +

-

-

O +

+
+

-

_

+

_ - ^ - j - 4 . ^ - 4 - ^ - _

O

-

+

+ - + - - t - _ _ « 4 - - h _

+

f

- 0
+ -

+

+

+ +'o + + + o - + +
-

-

-

+

+

+

-

+

+

-

_

0 - Q
0. 0+

-

- _

-

+

H

+
+

+
+

+

+

- O
--

-

-

+ +
_•*-

+

-

-- - -

-

0-

+

O O - + - + +
- . 0 - - - - - +
- - - - -

+ - + _ +

o

O
+
+

-

+

+ -

+

+
_
. +

O

-00

-

-h

-1-

4~

+

- + -

+

4-

0

+
-

+

+

0

Textile mill products

4~

-

+
+

- + + + + + + + --I- + +

+

-r

+

+
+
+

Q

+ +
- - • * •

- - 0
+ •+•

- 4 - - H 4 -

----

+

+
+

0
+

+
-

- +
+

+
+

-

O

O

-

+

+

-

-

+

- J - o - _

_

_

_

+

_ + + + o t - _ o
_ + + -i--h + - _
- + 0 + + + -*--

_ + _
+ ^ 0
_ + +

4

_

+

-

-

-

_

+

_

0

-

O

O

O

O

+ + 0 +

- 4 -

+

+

-

-

0

-

+ --

-

-

+

-0 + + + - - _ + - + + _

MTT-I-T Tirr

+

+

o -

O

--

_ ^ _ - j -

_

- o
..

°
Retail trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Service
Federal government




+

-

+

OO

- -

+

- - - -

+

- -

+

+

0

- -

0

-

-

+

--

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

--O

+

+

+

+

+

+ O

+

+

+

+

0

0

+

+

4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - +

++

+

+

-

+

_

-

+

+

+ +

+

+

+

-

+ 0

_

* rising; o * unchanged; - • falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.

_

0

+

+

-J-

o
c/>
C
»-i
O

Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
G.-(D47) Index of Industrial Production
1 -month spans

1961

1960

1962

24 industry components

C , Q

O

Percent rising1

G

fi

•

to

to

>>

C

H

b o a - P

>

« - » p t < S < < S H 3 ' ~ 3 < I i C O O S 3 Q
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
O C , Q f H £ - i > i C J r - l t i O O < - P >
cfl
i> Jit
Pt .cd
J
d
j
Q)
o
O
H 3 p r H J E j ^ i l 2 ^ * ~ 3 < 3 i C O O ! 3

S

to

to

> s J 3 r H b O P 4 - P

>

O

•SSS'^^'f'fl^SS^
O

G

r

Q

h

f

H

^

C

l

-

H

b

f

l

P

^

-

P

^

S ^ ^ S ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ c ^ c B ^

65 12 50 65 69 60 50 31 19 48 27 21 48 29 58 90 83 88 75 65 23 88 71 62 19 71 60 71 71 62 67 54 69 38 44

All industrial production
DURABLE GOODS
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay, glass , and stone
Lumber and products

+
+

- ---

+

_ +

- + + +
_

+ _

0

+ + + + + + + + + _ + + +
_
+ + +
- - - - - _ _ + + + +. + +_

- - - + +

+

_

_

-

_

-

+

+

-

+

+
~~~
+ + + ~ ~ + + +
_ _ + + + + + + _ + + +

_
-

+

-

+

+

+

+

-

-

0

-

-

- -

+

+

+

+

+

0

-

-

-

-

_

i

.

+

+

+

+ - H

+

0

_ _

Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous

+ + + +

- _ - + +

+

+

--*-

-

+

+

O

+

+

-

-NA

+

-

o

-

0

0

+

+ •+•

+ +

-

+ + + + +

--

+
-+

NONDURABLE GOODS
Textile, apparel, and leather
Textile mill products

+ ---

+ + - - - - - _ + _ +

_

__ + - - + + + - + --»- + +

Leather and products

+

_ + + +

Paper and products
Printing and publishing

+

- -

+

-

-

-

o

--

+ +

+ + -*--

+

+

-

_ _

Chemicals and products

+

_

+

+

_

_

„

- -

+

+

+

0
-

0

_

-

_

+

_

+

+

+ . + + _ + - - N A

_

+

0

+

_

+

_

+

_ +

_

+

0

0

+

+

+

+ _

+

+ _

0

+

-

'+

+

+

+

0 -

+

+

+

_ o -

+

_ + _ - j -

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

0

+

- +

-h +
+NA

-

Rubber and plastics products
Food and beverages
Tobacco products

+

+ + - - o + N A N A
+
- - + - + - + - N A

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

O

O

O

+

-

+

+ _ + + + +

_ _ +

+

0

_

+ -

+ + *

+ --NANA

+

. +

_ + -

+ - + -i-NA

+
+

+

MINERALS
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas

_ - _ + _ + + + - + + -

Stone and earth minerals

0 - - H
-OO

--0
-+

+
-

+ ^-*+
O-

_ - _ + - + + - - + - -

+ = rising; o « unchanged; - - falling.
NA « Not available.

+

.

+

+

.

+

.

+

.

+

+

4-

Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.

are us^d tn P«m«,,to th. "
* • • ^ ^^^^ grouPs where actual data for separate industries are not available; however, estimates for each industry
are used to compute the percent rising. The percent rising is based on 24 industry components.




<;
r*
O

+

-

_ +

> + - + _ + - - i -

_

+ - - + - - +

+

O

- . - - + -

v

s
o

Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued

ON

H.»(D54) Sales of Retail Stores

3 -month spans
1960

1961

1962

24 retail store components

4*
Percent rising...
All retail sales.
Grocery stores
Other food stores
Eating places
Department stores
Mail-order stores....
Variety stores
Other general stores.
Men' s wear stores
Women' s apparel stores
Family apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture stores
Appliance and radio stores.
Building material dealers..
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Motor vehicle dealers
Tire and battery dealers
Gasoline stations
Drug and proprietary stores...
Jewelry stores
Liquor stores
Other durable goods stores....
Other nondurable goods stores.




+ = rising; o = unchanged; - •» falling.

I

58 38 48 79 54 62 21 46 42 46 46 44 42 35 73 44 58 54 71 83 35 75 71 90 71 60 65 92 81 40 38 62 81 46 65

+ --

- + + + -- + +
- - - + + + _ - - - + + -- + + + --+ + + +

+ - + + + --+
4- 44- 4- - - - 4+ +
4- - 4- 4- 4- _ _ + _ _ + + + - + - + - + +
4- +

_
-

4+
+
+

_
+
+
-

o
+ - - + + + - + 4 + 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - +

_ 4- 4- 4- - 4- - O - - - - - O
+ + - + + + - _ _ + + _ + +

-

+ +

+

+

- +

+

+

0 +

+ - o

4-

-

-

4-

-

+

-<
rt

n
4-

- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4-4-4- + 0 - - 0
4 - 4 - 0 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 -

v

0 - 4 4-4--

Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.

Cyclical Patterns

47

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS

CHART 4

Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
Nov.
• July
July
> May
Index

I III I M IIIII I I

1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
1957 - Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
1960 - present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)

Index

- Reference trough dates

171 I I | I I ITT | I I I I I I i | | I I I III I I |

9. Construction
awarded, comm.

-<- Reference trough dates
105 r-

1. Avg. workweek, prod,
workers, mfg.

100*
*100

29. New pvt. housing units
authorized, local bldg. I
95L

150
140
130

24. Mfrs,1 new orders,
mach. and equip, indus.

>-

^ .*

120
110

100*
80

I I M I I I I I M I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I II

-12

-6

0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs

+24

+30

-6

0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs

+24

+30

*Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3* or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100*.
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
1
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.
2
For the 1949, 1954, and 1958 cycles a 3-term moving average is shown.




48

Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED

I II II| III II|II IiI I IM I I|

Nov. 1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 • Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 - Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
• May 1960 • present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)

Index

-<- Reference trough dates

Index
Reference trough dates

150 r
140

13. New business incorporations

v:

17. Price per unit of
labor cost

130

120

110

MOO

90L

180
170

23. Industrial materials
prices

160
150

19. Stock prices, 500 ../
common stocks
•*

140
130
120

noh
MOO

-» 70

90

80 L
•12

0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs

+24

+30

-6

0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs

+24

^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100*.
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.




Cyclical Patterns

49

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.

CHART 4

Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED

I III IIMIIII IIIMIII III

• Nov. 1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
• July 1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 - Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
» May 1960 - present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)

Index

Reference trough dates

43. Unemployment rate, total
[inverted]

Index

105 r

41. Employees in nonagri.
establishments

MOO

55. Wholesale prices, except /
farm prod, and foods
/

•'*

100*

J

95

I I I I I I I I I II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I
•12

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

Months from reference troughs

+24

+30

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

+30

Months from reference troughs

^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100".
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.




50

Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS--Con.

CHAIT 4

Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED

,»M.,MMI,IMM,

• Nov. 1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
• July 1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 - Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
• May 1960 - present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
I IIIII

Index

Reference trough dates

I I I I I I I I II I I I I I I I I I I I M I M I I

51. Bank debits outside NYC

100*

100*

95

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i I 1 1 1 1 1 i M1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I
0

*6

+12

Months froB reference troughs

+30

I I I I I I I I I I 1 I 1 I 1 I I I 1 1 I I I I I I I I II
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs

*Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at *100*. For series with an MCD of "3* or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100"
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.




Cyclical Patterns

51

COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.

CHART 4

Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
Nov.
• July
July
> May

1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
1957 - Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
1960 • present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)

62. Wage and salary cost
per unit of output, all mfg.

Index

120 r

100*

61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment

67. Bank rates, short-term
business loans

100*

64. Mfrs.' inventories,
all mfg. industries

90L
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs

+24

0

I I I I I 11 I 11 11 I I I I I I I I I I I 11
+24
+30
6
+12 + 1 8

+

Months from reference troughs

* Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100".
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.
2
Last two quarters anticipated.




Cyclical Patterns

52

COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of specific trough levels measured from the specific trough date of
each series in 4 recent expansions to 30 months after each specific trough.
PERIOD COVERED

I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I M

From specific trough dates1 to 30 months later.2 Specific trough dates are the dates each series actually begins
the expansion identified with the reference trough of--

Index

-<- Specific trough dates

9. Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and
indus. bldgs.

1949
1954
Index

I I I I

TIT I T ] IT I M

MIII

IIIII

MMI

-<- Specific trough dates
1. Avg. workweek,
prod, workers, mfg.

100*

29. New pvt. housing units
authorized, local bldg.
permits
24. Mfrs,' new orders,
mach. and equip, indus.

-«/? </
v

v

///<:

\

100*

+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs

+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs

* Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set
at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For
quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
3-See appendix B for specific dates.
2
See table 1 for latest month in current period.
Percent changes for this month and the comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
3
For the 1949 and 1958 cycles, a 3-term moving average is shown. For the current cycle, changes are based on the low (L) shown in
table 1.




Cyclical Patterns

53

COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels measured from the specific trough date of
each series in 4 recent expansions to 30 months after each specific trough.
PERIOD COVERED

! II | I I I I I I I | I I I I I I I I I I I

From specific trough dates1 to 30 months later.2 Specific trough dates are the dates each series actually begins
the expansion identified with the reference trough of—

Index

•<- Specific trough dates

1949
1954
Index

I f 1 1 1 I I I II I I I I I I 1 1 I 1 1 I I I 11 1 1 I
115

•<- Specific trough dates

150
17. Price per unit of
labor cost

\

140

13. New business
incorporations

/
i/
V

/
/

110

130
105

120

110

100*

*100

200

200

180

180

23. Industrial materials
prices

160

160

19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks

/*•"

140

140

120

120

100*

*100

.1.....I.....I
+6

+12

+18

+24

Months from specific troughs

+30

I II I I I II I I I I I I I I I I I I I II I l i
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs

1I I I
+30

'Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set
at "100*. For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100*. For
quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix CISee appendix B for specific dates.
2
See table 1 for latest month in current period.
Percent changes for this month and the comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.




54

Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS--Con.

CHART S

Percent of specific trough levels measured from the specific trough date of
each series in 4 recent expansions to 30 months after each specific trough.
PERIOD COVERED
From specific trough dates to 30 months later.
Specific trough dates are the dates each series actually begins
the expansion identified with the reference trough of—

1949
1954
Index
115

i ii I i I i i i i ii i i i i ii i i I i i i I i i i i i

Index

Specific trough dates

1958
1961

(I I I I I I I I 11 I I I I I I I I I 11 I
-<- Specific trough dates

43. Unemployment rate, total
verte

41. Employees in nonagri.^
establishments

110

105

*100
135
47. Industrial production

130
125

120

115

110

105

100*

*100
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ll
+30
+6
+12
+18
+24

Months from specific troughs

+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs

+30

* Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set
at *100*. For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For
quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
3-See appendix B for specific dates.
2
See table 1 for latest month in current period.
Percent changes for this month and the comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.




Cyclical Patterns

55

COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.

CHART 5

Percent of specific trough levels measured from the specific trough date of
each series in 4 recent expansions to 30 months after each specific trough.
PERIOD COVERED

I IIII|II I III i I MIIII III I iIII

From specific trough dates to 30 months later.
Specific trough dates are the dates each series actually begins
the expansion identified with the reference trough of—
1949
1954

Index
135

Index

•<- Specific trough dates

130

•—•

125

I 11 I 1 1 I I I 11 I I I I I I I I I 1 1 I I I 1 1 i I

120

-<- Specific trough dates
50. GNP in 1954 dollars

130

115
110

125

49. GNP In current dollars
120

105

115

100*

110

105

*100

150
53. Labor income in mining,
mfg.f and construction

140

130r
125

130

52. Personal income

120
120

115
110

110

105
100*

MOO
I I I I I I I I I I I I II

+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I II

+30

+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs

+30

* Sped fie trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or *2", the figure for the specific trough is set
at "100*. For series with an MCD of M3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at M100". For
quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set at "100".
MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
*See appendix B for specific dates.
2
See table 1 for latest month in current period.
Percent changes for this month and the comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
^or the current cycle, changes are based on the low (L) shown in table 1.




Cyclical Patterns

56

Table 7-PERCENT OF REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS

For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or' "2" (series 1, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 55, 62, 64
and 66), the figure for the reference peak month is used as the base. For series with an MOD of "3" or more (series
2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 17, 24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is
used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, 67) is the reference peak quarter. See also
MCD footnote to appendix C.

Selected series

MDnths
Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion
after
beginning in—
referNov.
ence
July
July
Mir.
June
Oct.
Aug.
Apr.
Feb.
1949
trough1 1921 1924
1927
1933
1938
1954
1958 1961

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
goods industries
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started..
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space 2 ...
13.
14.
16 .
17.
19.
23.
24.

Number of new business incorporations
Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.).
Corporate profits after taxes ( Q)
Price per unit of labor cost index... .......
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
Index of industrial materials prices
Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin-

21
20
20

NA
94-0
87.5

21
21

148.8
169.5

20

43.9

21
85.6
21 20.3
18
96.0
NA
21
21 ' 103.1
21
71.9

95.8
44-3
35.6
113.1
125.5
111 .9

100.4
115-9
114.4

71.9
58.5
39-4

93.7
82.0
59.8

102.0
109.1

98.8
90.4
87.5

101 .3 100.7
98.2
144.5
100.0 129.6

141 .0

91.3
70.6

41.7
16.1

89.3
143.3

162.0
113.8

131.7
110.4

108.0 113.7
114.4 119.5

113.4

18.8

78.1

116.3

140.7

104.8

103.0

94-2
109.0
97.5
104.8
U3.4
114.6

140.9
85.7
122.4
102.1
191.6
111 .9

141.9
76.0
103.1
103.8
119.6
101.8

96.7
97.7
111.1
102.6
108.7
92.6

112.0
96.3
178.2
90.9
120.8
90.4
NA
NA
231.2
132.4
96.6
89.3

61.2
81.6
258.0 108.6
4-4 117.0
NA
NA
30.8
74.8
91.0
67.2

21

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA 143.5

117.4

113.7

21

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

111.8

118.0

21
21
21
18
18
21
21
21

90.2
NA
111 .4
NA
NA
94-2
NA
109.7

96.4
NA
104.1
115.7
NA
115-5
113.0
104.9

81.0
0.2
67.2
63.7
NA
47.1
62.1
73.0

98.9
71.7
93.8
102.4
NA
94-9
100.4
103.1

106.4
118.5
117.8
122.8
114-4
123-4
119.7
112.3

104.0
61.2
106.1
111 .3
106.9
121 .7
114-0
111.0

102.1
78.8
109.3
109.0
104.9
114.6
111 .4
106.8

101.8
88.8
108.7
110.0
106.6
120.6
111 .4
108.3

21

70.3

94.2

110.6

105.8

101 .9

99.6

89.0

105.6

29. Index of new private housing units authorNBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
47.
49.
50.
51.

Index of industrial production.,...
Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers

54. Sales of retail stores
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities

106.3
NA
115.1
110.3
NA
138.5
114.9
1 02 . 7 '
92.0

85.0

95-9

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment total ( Q) »
62. Wage and salary cost per unit of output,

NA

NA

NA

NA

21
20
20

67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities (Q)

18

77.8
NA
NA

94-4
NA
NA

90.9
NA
NA

88.3
72.3
59-4

18

87.3

92.8

120.2

67.3

NA

100.0
100.6
117.2
94-6

114-4 116.8
106.0 103.1
125-9 106.8
167.2 135.9

97.3
96.9
118.4

116.3

111 .0

105.4

NA Not available.
•'•Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.




97.5
104.0
113.1
93.3

Cyclical Patterns

57

Table 8.--PERCENT CHANGE FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER TH£ REFERENCE
TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 55, 62, 64
and 66), the figure for the reference trough month is used as the base.. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series
2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 17, 24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference trough'month is
used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, 67) is the reference trough quarter.
See
also MCD footnote to appendix C.

Selected series

Months
Percent change from reference trough of expansion
beginning in—
after
referNov.
Apr.
Mar.
Oct.
July July
Aug.
June
ence
1933
1954
1924
1938
1958
1949
trough1 1921
1927

Feb.
1961

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,

21
20
20

NA
+4.8
NA +106.5
NA
+14.9

6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable

+2.3
+58.4
+61.4

-3.0
+44.0
+24.2

-8.6 +117.2
-32.2
+6.7

+2.8
+7.5
+1.3
-8,9 +22.8 +24.5
+20.6 +110.3 +35.4

+4.7
+55.9
+64.9

+2.8
-10 o 5
+50.0

+48.6
+52.6

+75.2
-21. C

+41.7
-7.5

+26.2
+19.3

+23.4
+33.2

+58.1

+34.7

+45.2

+33.4

+10.5

20

+61.0

+61 ol +30.7

21
21
18
21
21
21

+18.3
+20.5
NA
NA
+39.4
+71.9

+30.0
-5.2
+7.9 -22.6
+97.7
-I.; +212.5 +47»5
m +287.5
+67.9 +64.1
NA
NA
NA
NA
+27.1 +76.4 +48.6 +19.0
+6.4
-0.9 +61.8 +35.8

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

+50.3

+40.0

+18.4

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

+10.0

+21.7

21
21
21
18
18
21
21
21

+30.8
NA
+63.3
NA
NA
+21.5
+27.7
+14.6

+11.0
NA
+27.5
+18.4
NA
+19.3
+13.5
+6.9

+10.7
NA
+24.5
+9.9
NA
+27.4
+12.2
+2.7

+18.4
+24.1
+41.4
+26.3
NA
+23o4
+26.3
+29.3

+10.4
+27.7
+38.6
+16.3
NA
+13.7
+12.7
+24.6

+12.0
+146.5
+28.8
+27.0
+16.0
+28.5
+25.2
+12.7

+7.6
+38.3
+16.6
+13.4
+10.1
+19.8
+14.2
+11.9

+6.5
+39.5
+27.2
+11.7
+9.1
+18.3
+11.7
+10.5

+3.9
+19.3
+15.6
+10.9
+8.7
+17.8
+10.7
+12.5

21

19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....

+1.0
+35.4

21

14. Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.).
16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q)

21 +110.9
21 +73. 2

21

7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started. .
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space 2 ...

+11.4

+3.1

-1.2

+16.8

+1.3

+16.5

+6.6

+2.4

-0.2

NA

NA

+43.0

+22.3 +10.8

+13.3

24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin-

+56. £

+4.2
-9.S +19.3 +48.6
+1.0
-0.7
-7.] -10.]
+24.') +43o7 +36.3 +28.6
+5.2 + 3.3 +9.4
+4.2
+38.0 +51.4 +37.1
-3.4
+52.6 +11.8 +17.2
-2.9

29. Index of new private housing units authorNBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural

49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..

55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment total (Q)
62. Wage and salary cost per unit of output,
total manufacturing
66 . Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities (Q)

18

NA

NA

NA

21
20
20

-13.6
NA
NA

-802
NA
NA

-7.7
NA
NA

18

-19.0

+5.8

+24.9

+20.5 -3.6 +11.1
+22.1 +6.3 +37.6
+24.2 +25.7 +34.7

+1.7
+13.3
+31.4

-8.4
+1.7
+17.4

-4.0
+6.7
+9.3

-13.6

+10.4

+28.5

+0.4

-3.1

+15.8

NA Not available.
^sed on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.




Cyclical Patterns

58

Table 9.--PERCENT OF SPECIFIC PEAK LEVELS AND PERCENT CHANGE FROM SPECIFIC TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT
DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE SPECIFIC TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, and 53), the
figure for the specific peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 9, 13,
17, 24, 29, and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the specific peak (trough) month is used as the base.
The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the specific peak (trough^ quarter. See also MCD footnote1 to appendix C.

Selected series

Months
after July
specific 1921
trough1

23

19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
23. Index of industrial materials prices
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin29. Index of new private housing units author-

Nov.
1927

Mar.
1933

June
1938

Oct.
1949

Aug.
1954

Apr.
1958

Feb.
1961

Percent of specific peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in year shown

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...

July
1924

NA

18
22
22
25
23

43.0
80.2
NA
85.7
60.9

25

NA
NA

23

95.4

92.3

105.8 97.0
94.7 107.1
NA
NA
NSC
130.0
81.3 55.2

70.3

94.1

16.7
65.4
NA
30.3
66.0

76.4
75.8
NA

58.4
82.8

NSC

71.7
62.8
108.9
130.4
127.6

98.3

99.3

97.3

NSC 91.4
NSC 130.8
91.4 101.1
160.8 119.0
89.8
64.3

3

105.4
90.1
100.2
100.5
91.0

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

95.0

103.8

113.1

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

72.6

91.9

106.3
110.9
115-1
114*4
111.5
120.2
123.1
NSC

104.0
61.2
105.6
110.9
107.5
111.4
110.2
110.4

102.1
79.0
108.3
107.7
104.0
111.1
108.2
106.8

101.6
84.8
107.0
110.0
106.6
3
110.6
105.6
108.8

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural

49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars ( ) .
Q.
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe..
54 . Sales of retail stores

21
18
22
13
18
23
21
22

90.2

NA
104.5
NA
NA
NA
NA

105.0

81.0
98.4
NA
72.2
93.8
70.5
63.7 97.5
NA
NA
64.9
99.1
55.8 92.5
70.4 102.5

Percent change from specific trough related to reference
expansion beginning in year shown

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,

23 +14.0

9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
13. Number of new business incorporations.

96.3 103.8
NA
NA
102.0 113.2
NA
NA
NA
NA
110.5 105.3
NA
NA
NSC
NSC

+5.3

-3.6

-5.7 +12.6

+6.2

+68.7 +25.6 +72.9 +68.2 a3o.i
-5.0 +6.1
+26.7 +16.8 +4.8
NA
NA
NA
NA +16.6
NSC +98.5 +7.0 +57.0
+52.7
+10.2 -22.7 +77.5 +33.7 +89.2

KL08.1
+14.9
NA
+26.4
+49.5

25

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA K149.2

23

19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
23. Index of industrial materials prices
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries
»
29. Index of new private housing units author-

18
22
22
25
23

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

21
18
22
18
18
23
21
22

+30.8
NA
+53.3
NA
NA
+28.0
NA
+19.3

+9.6 +18.4 +10.4
+11.0
NA
NA +19.5 +31.7
+25.0 +22.4 +53.6 +41.9
NA +26.3 +16.3
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
+8.0 +31.9 +13.4
+14.7
NA
NA +56.8 +26.5
NSC
NSC +24.6 +24.7

+12.0
+141.1
+27.8
+18.7
+14.2
+26.7
+40.9
NSC

+2.5
NSC
NSC
+7.7
+81.0
+23.2

+4.9

+3.4
3

+33.7 +11.6
+43.7 +5.4
+8.7
+4.5
+43.9 +11.7
+13.5
-0.4

+59.2 +40.0 +21.3
NA +17.6

+23.1

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
4.7. Index of industrial production
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars ( ) .
Q.
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe..

+7.6
+44.9
+17.4
+13.9
+11.6
+12.8
+19.3
+14.2

+6.5
+52.5
+26.4
+11.5
+8.8
+12.4
+17.5
+11.6

+3.9
+21.2
+15.7
+10.9
+8.7
3
+ll.l
+11.2
+13.0

NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.
1
Based on period from most recent specific trough of each series to the latest month for which data are available.
The 2 number is the same for each expansion. Specific trough and peak dates are shown in appendix B.
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
3
Since no specific trough has been designated, figures are based on the low (L) and high (H) shown in table 1.







APPENDIXES
Appendix materials retain their original alphabetical designation. Therefore, when appendixes are dropped from an issue, the continuity is interrupted.
However, appendixes that are dropped will be listed with the latest date of
publication.
"Appendix E.—Summary Description of X-9 and X-10 Versions of the Census
Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program", not included in this issue, was included in March 1962.

Appendixes

60




Appendix A.--BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE DATES AND DURATION OF EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS
IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Contraction
(trough
from previous peak)

Business cycle
reference dates

Cycle
Expansion
(trough to
peak)

Trough from
previous
trough

Peak from
previous
peak

Peak

Trough

XXX

XXX

48
30

65

30
22
46
IS
34
36

99

40
54
50
52
101

March 1 8
87
July 1 9
80
January 1 9 . .
83.
December 1895..
June 1 9
89
September 1902.

38
13
10
17
18
18

22
27
20
18
24
21

74
35
37
37
36
42

60
40
30
35
42
39

August 1 0
9^
June 1 0
98
January 1912
December 1 1
94
March 1919
July 1921

May 1 0
97
January 1 1 . .
90.
January 1 1 . .
93.
August 1 1 . .
98..
January 1 2 . .
90.
May 1923

23
13
24
23
7
18

33
19
12
44
10
22

44
46
43
35

56
32
36
67
17
40

July 1 2
94
November 1 2
97
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1 4
99

October 1 2 . .
96.
August 1 2
99
May 1937
February 1 4 .
95.
November 1 4 .
98.
July 1953

14
13
43
13
1
11

27
21
50
80
37

August 1954
April 1958
February 1 6
91

July 1957
May I960

±1
9
9

35
25

Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1 5 - 9 1
8416
10 cycles, 1 1 - 9 1
9916
4 cycles, 1 4 - 9 1
9516

19
15
10

30
35
36

49
50
46

Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1 5 - 9 1
8416
8 cycles, 1 1 - 9 1
9916
3 cycles, 1945-1961

20
16
10

26
28
32

45
45
42

December 1854,
December 1858
June 1 6
81
December 1 6
8?
December 1 7
80
March 1 7
89

June 1 5 . . .
87...
October i 6 . .
80.
April 1865
June 1 6
89
October 1 7 . .
83.
March 1882

XXX

May 1885
April 1 8
88
May 1 9
81
June 1 9
84
June 1 9
87
December 1 0
90

18
8

i

i
36
40
64
63
38
48
44
34

41
34
93
93
45

48
34

•s
6

U

NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II,
and Korean War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime
expansions.
X
4
25 cycles, 1857-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
2
5
9 cycles, 1 2 - 9 0
9016.
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
3
6
3 cycles, 1 4 - 9 0
9816
2 cycles, 1 4 - 9 0
9816.
Source:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Appendixes

61

Appendix B.--SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough and peak dates are the actual dates that each series reaches its trough and peak. Reference dates are
those dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for selected leading
and coincident series, the specific dates related to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in—
Selected series
Feb.
1961

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
workers , manufacturing
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs...
13. Number of new business incorporat ions
17. Price per unit of labor cost index.
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks..
23. Index of industrial mat. prices....
24. Value of mfrs.' new orders, machinery and equipment industries..
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits.
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
4-1. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments
4-3. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
49 . GNP in current dollars ( Q)
50. GNP in 1954 dollars ( Q)
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, manufac-

Apr.
1958

Aug.
1954

June
1938

Oct.
1949

Mar.
1933

July
1924

July
1921

Dec. '60 Apr. '58 Apr. '54 Apr. '49 Jan. '38 Jul.'32 Apr. '28 Jul.'24 Feb. '21
NSC

Jun.'58 NSC

Jan. '61
Jan. '61
Oct. '60
Dec. '60

Nov. '57
Apr. '58
Dec. '57
Apr. '58

Aug. '49 Sep. '38 Oct. '32 Sep. '27 Jul.'24 Mar. '21

Feb . ' 49Sep. '39
NSC
Dec. '53 May '49 NA
Sep. '53 Jun.'49 Apr. '38
Feb . ' 54
Jun.'49 Jun. '38

Dec. '34
NA
Jun. '32
Jul.'32

Dec. '26
NA
NSC
Aug. '28

Jun. '24
NA
Oct. '23
Jun. '24

Jan. '21
NA
Aug. '21
Jul.'21

Oct . ' 60Feb . ' 58
Jan. ' 54 Apr. '49 NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Dec. '60 Feb. '58 NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Feb. '61
May '61
Jan. '61
IstQ' 61
lstQ'61
NSC

Oct. '49
Oct. '49
Oct. '49
2nd Q' 49
2nd Q' 49
Oct. '49

Jun. '38
Jun. '38
May '38
2nd Q' 38
NA
May '38

mr.'33
May '33
Jul.'32
IstQ' 33'
NA
Mar. '33

Jan. '28
NA
Nov. '27
NSC
NA
4thQ'26

Jul.'24
NA
Jul.'24
NSC
NA
2nd Q' 24

Jul.'21
NA
Apr. '21
4thQ' 21
NA
2ndQ'21

NA
NSC

NA
NSC

NA
Mar. '22

Apr. '58
Aug. '58
Apr. '58
IstQ' 58
IstQ' 58
Feb. '58

Aug. ' 54
Sep. ' 54
Apr. '54
2ndQ' 54
2ndQ'54
Mar. '54

Feb. '61 Apr. '58 Aug. '54 Oct. '49 Jun. '38 Mar. '33
Mar. '58 Jan. '54 NSC
Jan . ' 61
my '38 Mar. '33

54. Sales of retail stores

Nov.
1927

Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in —
Selected series
May
1960

July <r
1957 c

July
1953

Nov.
1948

May
1937

Aug.
1929

Oct.
1926

my
1923

Jan.
1920

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
May '59 Nov. '55
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs... NSC
Mar. '56
13. Number of new business incorporat ions
Apr. '59 Feb. '56
17. Price per unit of labor cost index. May '59 Mar. '57
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks.. Jul.'59 Jul.'56
23. Index of industrial mat. prices.... Nov. '59 Dec. '55
24. Value of mfrs.1 new orders, machinery and equipment industries . .
Dec. '59 Nov. '56
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits. Nov . ' 58Feb. '55
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagriculApr. '60 Mar. '57
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) Feb. '60 Mar. '57
47. Index of industrial production
Jan. ' 60 Feb. '57
49. GNP in current dollars ( Q)
2nd Q' 60 3rdQ' 57
50. GNP in 1954 dollars ( Q)
2ndQ' 60 3rd Q' 57
NSC
Aug. '57
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing and construction.
lyfey '60 Jul.'57
54. Sales of retail stores
Apr. '60 Jul.'57

NA not available.




Dec . ' 36Oct. '29 Nov. '25

Apr. '53

NSC

NSC

Mar . ' 46Jul.'37 Jan. '29 Sep. '25 Aug. '22 Dec. '19

Nov. '22

NA

Jul.'46
NSC
Feb. '51 Jan. '48
Jan. '53 Jun.'48
Feb , ' 51 Jan. '48

Dec. '36
NA
Feb. '37
Mar. '37

Jan. '29
NA
Sep. '29
Mar. '29

Oct. '25
NA
NSC
Nov. '25

Apr. '23 Dec. '19
NA
NA
Mar. '23 Jul.'19
Mar. '23 Apr. '20

Feb. '51 NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

May '53
Jun.'53
Jul.'53
2ndQ' 53
2nd Q' 53
Oct. '53

Jul.'48
Jan. '48
Jul.'48
4thQ' 48
4thQ'48
Oct. '48

Jul.'37
Jul.'37
May '37
3rd Q' 37
NA
Jun. '37

Aug. '29
NA
Jul.'29
3rd Q' 29
NA
Aug. '29

Jan. ' 26
NA
Mar. '27
NSC
NA
2nd Q' 26

Jul.'23
NA
May '23
NSC
NA
IstQ' 24

Jan. '20
NA
Feb. '20
NA
NA
NA

NA
NSC

NA
Jul.'20

Jul.'53 Sep. '48 May '37 Sep. '29 NA
Jul.'53 NSC
Sep. '37 Sep. '29 NSC

NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.

Appendixes

62

Appendix C-AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR MONTHLY AND
QUARTERLY BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES

i/c
Monthly series

CI

I

C

i/c

for
MCD
span

MOD

Average duration of run

CI

I

C

MCD

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,

30.
4.
5.
6.
24.

.47
6.03
Nonagricultural placements, all industries.... 3.41
11.94
Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
industries.
19.43
Average weekly initial claims for unemploy6.98
Value of manufacturers1 new orders, durable
5.58
Value of manufacturers1 new orders, machinery
6.07

.40
5-31
3.14
10.46

.24
2.08
1.35
5.45

1.67
2.55
2.33
1.92

2
3
3
3

.95
.92
.55
.76

2.57
2.53
1.86
2.49

1.84
1.82
1.49
1.80

9.82
8.35
8.67
7.59

4.26
4.58
4.53
5.16

17.91

4.88

3.67

5

.81

1.66

1.49

7.10

3.37

.97

1.86

1.53

9.28

3.61

.75

1.94

1.48

10.64

3.34

1.47

12.82

3.56

6.12

3.16

1.94

2

5.00

2.00

2.50

3

5.55

2.19

2.53

3

.73

1.68

12.37
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment. . 6.37
27. Buying policy— production materials, percent
reporting commitments 6 months or longer
7.56
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started.... 4.09
29. Index of new private housing units authorized
3.90
13 . Number of new business incorporations
3.04

11.94
5.94

2.75
2.19

4.34
2.71

5
3

.80
.79

1.62
1.59

1.49
1.37

8.28
8.56

3.45
3.55

7.12
3.39

2.36
2.01

3.02
1.69

4
3

.71
.67

1.82
2.29

1.69
1.67

10.14
11.46

5.23
4.46

3.44
2.57

1.67
1.30

2.06
1.98

3
3

.60
.65

1.93
2.19

1.53
1.69

12.43
9.31

3.70
3.50

16.32

16.05

2.81

5.71

6

(M

1.57

1.42

5.32

2.22

17.30
.72

17.36
.56
1.90

3.26
.41
1.49

5.33
1.37
1.28

6
2
2

(M
.80
.79

1.54
2.70
2.40

1.39
1.80
1.73

6.21
11.53
13.55

2.82
4.10
3.36

5.53

2.76

2.00

3

.66

1.90

1.61

11.55

4.63

.77
.91

3.18
2.61

2.01
1.84

9.94
11.46

3.59
2.61

9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial

14. Current liabilities of business failures
15. Number of business failures with liabilities
of $100,000 and over

19. TndeY of stnfik pTiofifs, 500 nrvrmnon ptnnkg , , , , , 2.58
T

26. Buying policy— production materials, percent

6.17
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower

11.30
2.1$

8.12
1.39

7.20
1.52

1.13
.91

.39

.22

.29

.76

1

.76

3.41

2.04

10.44

3.41

.41
4.73
5.80

.32
3.46
4.62

.22
2.91
3.26

1.45
1.19
1.42

2
2
2

.72
.64
.67

1.94
2.44
2.05

1.62 15.73
1.68
7.67
1.38 10.50

3.44
3.48
4.37

5.63

2.80

4.12

.68

1

.68

3.47

2.44

8.28

3.47

3.28

2.10

2.26

.93

1

.93

2.30

1.40

8.13

2.30

1.16
1.56
.69

.66
1.42
.43

.81
.70
.54

.81
2.03
.80

1
3
1

.81
.58
.80

4.25
1.82
3.39

1.87
1.55
1.69

11.00
10.64
21.29

4.25
4-32
3.39

1.12
1.58

.69
1.43

.84
.56

.82
2.55

1
4

.82
.70

3.63
1.84

1.80
1.67

13.55
8.77

3.63
3.56

.30

23 . Index of industrial materials prices

2
1

.11

.27

.41

1

• 41

5.22

2.53

12.85

5.22

.66

.46

.40

1.15

2

.66

2.70

1.77

11.53

4.65

.88

.27

.40

.34

1

.34

7.84

2.16

13.55

7.84

.99
1.19

.49
.28

.84
1.12

.58
.25

1
1

.58
.25

6.48
8.79

2.61
2.29

13.55
18.56

6.48
8.79

NBER RODC2HJ COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force
43 • Unemployment rate , total
45- Average weekly insured unemployment rate,
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in

51 Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers
52. Personal income. . . . . . . . .
.......
53- Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and
54. Sales of retail stores.
5$. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
62. Index of wage and salary cost per unit of
oijhput, total manufacturing.
64. Book value of manufacturers1 inventories, all
m**mjfactirring industries
65. Book value of manufacturers1 inventories of
finished goods, all manufacturing industries.
66. Consumer installment debt
See footnotes at end of table.




Appendixes

63

Appendix C.-. AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR MONTHLY AND
QUARTERLY BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued

Monthly series

CI

I

C

T/c

MOD

I/G
Average duration of run
for
MOD
C
I
MCD
CI
span

OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
81. Index of consumer prices

.28
7.17
7.49

.17
6.91
7.23

.23
1.31
1.46

.4
7
5.27
4.95

1
5
5

.4
7
.2
9
.6
9

44
.8
1-47
17
.0

21
.8
1.39
1.52

1.9
98
7.59
5.96

44
.8
2.30
2.55

3.72
3.52
Index of construction contracts, total value.. 8.29
Defense Department obligations, procurement... 25.35
Defense Department obligations, total
15.57
Military prime contract awards to U.S. busi29.19
Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
2.08

3.39
3.02
8.06
24.41
15.00

1.52
1.32
2.22
4.97
2.88

2.23
2.29
3.63
4.91
5.21

3
3
4
6
5

.9
6
.9
7
.6
9
,i)
-99

18
.9
17
.1
16
.7
1.58
14
.9

1.51
1.57
14
.7
1.51
14
.1

78
.4
6.21
7.26
64
.6
66
.7

4.08
3.06
2.93
24
.4
24
.0

29.33

6.21

4.72

6

<x)

16
.1

1.50

5.38

2.76

.4
6

1.97

.32

1

.2
3

59
.6

2.14

1.0
67

5.96

1.51
2.63
1.69
.3
9
1.17
2.51
1.99
.2
7

2
3
2
1
2
3
3
1

.2
8
.7
8
.8
9
.3
9
.4
6
.0
8
.3
6
.2
7

29
.1
24
.1
34
.4
3.92
24
.6
2.20
2.27
3-37

19
.5
19
.3
2.27
29
.2
1.62
17
.0
16
.7
17
.7

1.1
71
1.0
54
15-50
9.31
1.8
77
1.0
70
2.0
20
2.7
35

5.23
69
.1
6.13
3.92
40
.8
5.09
9.50
3.37

83. Federal cash receipts from the public..
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments,
total
94«
90.
91.
92.
96.

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
121. OECD European countries, index of indus. prod...
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial prod
47. United States, index of industrial production.
12$. West Germany, index of industrial production..
127. Italy, irdex of industrial production
128. Japan, index of irdustrial production

Quarterly series

1.32
1.29
.98
1.32
1.61
1.79
1.70
2.09

1.03
1.29
.88
.82
1.15
1.63
1.61
1.15

CI

I

.8
6
.9
4
.52
.8
8
.8
9
.65
.1
8
1.60

C

T/c

I/e
for
QCD
span

QCD

Average duration of run

CI

I

C

QCD

28
.2
2.83

14
.8
1.65

5.17
3.64

2.82
2.83

NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602
manufacturing corporations
16. Corporate profits after taxes
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales,
all manufacturing corporations
22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corpo-

1
1

.2
9
.5
8

2

.1
5

28
.3

14
.2

5.67

3.85

.9
8

1

.9
8

28
.9

14
.9

5.50

2.89

1.13
1.59
1.45

.58
.3
4
.57

1
1
1

.8
5
.3
4
-57

31
.9
4-25
46
.4

1.50
14
.2
14
.6

5.10
6.38
7.29

3.19
4.25
4.64

2.94

.51

1

• 51

4-64

1.55

5.67

46
.4

.4
8

.1
7

1

.1
7

2.68

1.31

7.29

2.68

11.15
7.66

7.00
4.54

7.59
5.35

7.73

5.06

5.01

5.78

3.73

4.17

.2
9
.85

1.01

NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

49

Gross national product in current dollars

1.44
1.88
1.60

.65
.9
6
.82

NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and equip3.61
63. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
gross national product.
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing

See footnotes on following page.




1.02

1.49
.0
6

2.96

1.94

2.37

.2
8

1

.2
8

2.68

1.55

6.38

2.68

6.27

1.26

5.79

.2
2

1

.2
2

43
.8

19
.4

5.83

4.38

64

Appendixes
NOTES FOR APPENDIX C

x

Not computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.

The following are brief definitions of the measures shown in this table. More complete explanations appear in Business Cycle Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1, ch. 17, "Electronic
Computers and Business Indicators" by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University Press: 1 6 )
91.
"CI" is the average month-to-month
(for_quarterly series, quarter-to-quarter)
percentage change, without regard to
sign, in the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, which is obtained by dividing the
cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component which is a smooth,
flexible moving average.
"MCD" represents months for cyclical dominance. The average (without regard to sign) percentage changes in the irregular component and cyclical component are computed for 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans
(Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 5-month spans. MCD is the shortest span for which the average change (without regard
to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component.
Since changes are not computed for spans greater than 5 months, all series with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
MCD is small for smooth series and large for erratic series.
"QCD" represents quarters for cyclical dominance. It is
the shortest span (in quarters) for which the average change (without regard to sign) in cyclical component is larger
than the irregular average (without regard to sign) in component.
"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted
series.
For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month span^ and for spans of the period of MCD.
When MCD is "6", no I/C
ratio is shown for the MCD period. For quarterly series, I/C is shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
"Average duration of run11 is a measure of smoothness, and is equal to the average number of consecutive monthly
changes in the same direction in any series of observations.
When there is no change between 2 months, it is assumed
that the "no change" is a change in the same direction as the preceding change.
The average duration of run is shown
for the seasonally adjusted series CI, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD moving average. The MCD
moving average is a moving average (with the number of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally adjusted series. For quarterly series, average duration of run is the average number of consecutive quarterly changes in the same direction.




65

Appendixes

Appendix D.--CURRENT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES ADJUSTED BY BUREAU OF THE CENSUS O R N B E R
(NOVEMBER 1961 TO DECEMBER 1962)

19(51

1962

Series
Nov.

4. Number of persons on temporary
layoff, all industries
5. Av. weekly initial claims for
unemploy. insurance State
9. Constr. contracts awarded for

Dec.

89.0 106.1

103.5 128.9

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

136.6

105.2 118.2

98.1

86.8

90.5

85.9 101.8

136.9

99.8

98.2

82.7

83.9 101.0

111.4

95.4 84.4
83.5 71.6 1 0 9
0.
13 . No. of new business incorp
8 . 100.3 118.1
46
93.1 110.1
1 . Cur. liabilities of bus. failures. 106.1
4
95.0 101.8 103.6 113.6
15. No. of bus. failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over... 95.4 90.1 111.4 113.1 113.4

108.4
103.7
109.1
109.6

86.0

Sept. Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

88.8 106.6

92.3

91.1

77.3

90.1 103.8 128.6

110.8 98.3 113.7 117.1 106.6 110.3
95 6 84 6
104.7 104.3 100.1 95.3 90.1 95.9 8 . 100.3
46
94.8
95.7 96.3 85.4 103.4
94.2 95.0 106.7
96.9 103.2

92.3 100.5

87.6

86.3

95.3

90.1

17. Price per unit of labor cost
index
100.5 98.1 99.0 100.7 101.0 100.6 100.1 101.1
94.9 99.5 101.4 103.3 100.5 98.2
18. Profits (before taxes) per dol.
1
of sales, all mfg. corp.
97.5
105.5
98.6
97.9
97.5
25. Change in mfrs.' unfilled or2
ders , dur . goods industries . . . .
100.3 100.7
99.8 100.3 100.3
99.7 98.7 98.8 99.8 100.3 100.9 100.4 100.3 100.9
30. Nonagri. placements, all indus... 90.3 85.2 81.8 77.6 88.8 100.2 108.9 112.5 104.8 115.7 122.0 111.1 93.0 83.9
55. Index of wholesale prices, exc.
99.9 100.0 100.2 100 2 100.2 100.2 103 0 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99 9 100 0
62. Index of wage and salary cost
per unit of output, total mfg... 99.1 102.0 101.8
99.6 99.3 99.5 99.7 98.7 105.2 100.2
98.4 96.5 99.2 102.0
81. Index of consumer prices
100.2
82. Federal cash payments to public.. 103.1
83 . Federal cash receipts from pub . . .
98.8
90. Defense Department obligations —
procurement
90.1
91. Defense Dept. oblig., total
90.8
92. Military prime contract awards
68.6
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders,
100.3
128. Japan, index of industrial production
98.7
Value of commercial and indus.
constr. contracts (component of
series 10)
Value of privately owned public
works and utilities contracts
( component of series 10)

100.1
99.1
103.5

99.9 99.9 99.8 100.0 99.8 100.0 100.1 99.9 100.1 100.2 100.2 100.1
96.9 111.7
90.2 99.0 92.4 98.8 102.7 107.5
98.8
97.2 101.1 103.8
77.4 115.0 154.8
71.6 114.9 136.7
50.2 108.7 122.3 46.5 99.4 104.0

98.9
100.3

75.2
91.4

95.9 1 6 8
4.
91.9 117.8

78.0
94.5

76.2 220.8
88.2 156.3

51.6
82.8

79.2 100.7
86.8 99.1

84.0
98.8

90.0 98.9
90.8 100.3

115.3

80.5

80.0 125.6

94.7

94 5 229.2

68 6

67.7

93 2

82.7

68.6 115.3

100.7

99.8 100 3 100.3

99.7

98 7

102.9

93.9 101.5 108.7

99.9

99.9 100.4

9.
49

83.8

8 . '5 3
67 7

60.3

47.8

79.9

98 8

99.8 100 3 100 9 100.4
99.3

96.6

98.6 100.1

100 3 100 9

98.7 102 9

99 7 111 1 113 6 109 6 112 9

95 0

83 9

78.1 101.9 112.3 130.2 122.6 117.0 111.5 129.1 108.9

60.3

46.9

98.7 108.3

106 7

These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form.
Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source
agency will be substituted whenever they are published.
Some of the series above are also adjusted for trading days.
For this reason, the original observations divided by the seasonal factors given above will not yield the seasonally adjusted figures shown in table 1.
1
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
2
The seasonal factors are applied to the unfilled orders series; then the change in unfilled orders is computed.




66

Appendixes
Appendix F.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES:
1920 TO 1961

Percent change:
Contractions:
Reference peak to
reference trough

41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments

47. Index
of industrial
production

Reference peak to reference trough

43. Unemployment rate

50. GNP
in 1954
dollars
()
Q1

49. GNP
in current
dollars
()
Q1

51. Bank
debits
outside
NYC

52. Personal
income

54. Retail
sales

Change
in rate,
peak to
trough

Feb. 1945-Oct. 19454
Nov 1948-Oct. 1 ^ 9
9.
July 1953-Aug 1954s
July 1957-Apr. 1958
May 1960-Feb. 1961

2

2

NA
NA
NA
-31.6
-10.4

-31.6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31.7

NA
-0.3
+2.3
-28.0
-8.9

-19.7
-2.3
+0.4
-49.6
-11.9

-22.5
-3.1
+8.7
-61.9
-16.5

-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9

-4.3
-1.9
0.0
-43.5
-14.1

+7.9
2+2.3
2
+2.2
+25.4
+8.8

-7.8
-5.1
-3.4
-4.1
-2.0

-31.4
-8.5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.9

NA
-1.4
-3.0
-3.8
-1.9

-10.9
-3.3
-1.8
-2.5
-0.8

-1.0
-4.0
+1.6
-3.1
+2.4

-4.0
-4.3
-0.2
-0.3
+0.6

+8.7
-0.3
-0.8
-3.4
-3.5

+2.2
+3.8
+3.4
+3.2
+1.8

-5.7

Jan . 1920-July 1921
May 1923- July 1 2
94
Oct. 1926-Nov. 1927
Aug. 1929-Mar. 1933
May 1937- June 1938

Rate at
peak

-16.0

-2.4

-2.9

-3.1

-2.2

-2.6

4.0
3.2
2
1.9
3
0.0
11.2
2

Rate at
trough

2

11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0

1.1
4.0
2.6
4.2
5.1

3.3
7.8
6.0
74
.
69
.

+3.3

3.6

7.2

+3.5

40
.

76
.

+3.3

41
.

7.2

3

Median:6
Excluding postwar con-6.5
4 contractions since
14
98

-16.0

-2.6

-2.9

-3.6

-2.3

-3.4

-3.8

-8.8

-2.4

-2.2

-0.8

-0.2

-2.1

Percent change:
Expansions :
Reference trough
to reference peak

41 Employees
in nonagri. establishments

47. Index
of industrial
production

Reference trough to reference peak

43- Unemployment rate

50. GNP
in 1954
dollars
()
Q1

49 GNP
in current
dollars
()
Q1

51. Bank
debits
outside
NYC

52. Personal
income

54- Retail
sales

Change
in rate,
trough
to peak
2

Rate at
trough

2

Rate at
peak

2

July
July
Nov.
Mar.
June

1921-May 1923
1924-Oct. 1926
1927 -Aug. 1929
1933-May 1937
1938 Feb 194 54 • •

NA
NA
NA
+02
4.
+45.9

+64.2
+30.4
+24.1
+119.9
+183.3

NA
+24
1.
+12.6
+42.1
NA

+25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6

+23.5
+18.9
+20.4
+78.4
+131*7

+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3

+15.7
+9.9
+3.6
+63.1
+103.3

-8.7
-3.6
2
-0.9
-14.2
-18.9

Oct.
Oct.
Aug.
Apr.

1945-Nov. 1948
1949-July 1953s... .
1954-July 1957
1958-May I 6
90

+17.2
+17.7
+8.9
+7.2

+21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+25.2

+3.3
+74
2.
+13.5
+11.9

+34.9
+43.5
+23.8
+15.5

+51.5
+93
4.
+28.6
+21.2

+28.5
+41.5
+22.8
+13.4

+62.0
+26.3
+20.4
+13.5

+0.3
-5.2
-1.8
-2.3

3.3
7.8
6.0
74
.

+17.4

+35.2

+12.8

+27.9

+33.8

+27.0

+20.8

-3.7

71
.

3.3

+13.0

+26.6

+12.5

+21.5

+24.4

+21.6

+16.5

-2.6

6.3

3.7

+13.0

+23.5

+12.7

+29.4

+39.0

+25.6

+23.4

-2.0

67
.

3.9

2

11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0

3.2
1.9
3.2
11.2
1.1
2

23

3

3.6
2.6
4.2
5.1

Median:6
Excluding wartime ex4 expansions since
1945

For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 41, 43, 47, and 52), the figure for the
reference peak (trough) month is used as the base.
For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 51 and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base.
The base for quarterly series
(series 49 and 50) is the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
1
The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st
quarter 1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER), vol. 1, p. 670.
2
Based on average for the calendar year.
3
Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
^World War II contraction or expansion period.
5
Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.

Source:




National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

COMPLETE TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order. *M" indicates monthly series and *QW indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by *EOMW or "EOQ".
"EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and "EOQ" indicates that data are for the end of the quarter. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk (*) were included
in the 1960 NBER list of 26 indicators.
30 NBER LEADING INDICATORS
*1.

Average workweek of production workers,

manufacturing (M).—

Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
5o A v e r a g e w e e k l y i n i t i a l c l a i m s for u n e m p l o y m e n t i n s u r a n c e .
State p r o g r a m s (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal a d j u s t m e n t by Bureau of the
Census
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries
(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
*7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started (M).—Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings, floor space (M).--F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
10.

11. Newly

13.
*14.
15.

*16.

approved capital appropriations, 602 manufacturing

corporations (Q).--Nationa 1 Industrial C o n f e r e n c e Board;
component industries are seasonally a d j u s t e d by National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., and added to obtain
seasonally a d j u s t e d total.
Net change in the business population, operating businesses
(EOQ).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Number of new business incorporations (M).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Current liabilities of business failures (M).—Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Number of business failures with liabilities of $100,000 and
over (M).-=Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Corporate profits after taxes (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

17. Price per unit of labor cost index (ratio of wholesale prices of

manufactured goods index to wage and salary cost per unit of
output index) (M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census

18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing cor-

porations (Q).—Federal Trade Commission and Securities and
Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census

*19.

Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—Standard and

Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories, purchased
material (EOM).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
*21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
22. Ratio of profits to income originating, corporate, all industries
(Q).-fDepartment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M).—Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment

industries (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census,
from special tabulations of the Office of Business Economics

25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods indus-

tries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census

26. Buying policy—production materials, percent reporting commit-

ments 60 days or longer (M).--National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment

27. Buying policy—capital expenditures,

percent reporting commit-

ments 6 months or longer (M).—National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment




building

permits (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

30. Nonagricultura! placements, all

industries (M).—Department of

Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census

31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,

total (EOM),-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M).—
Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
15 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M).— Depart-

ment of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Number of employees in nonagricuiturai establishments (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagricuiturai employment, labor force survey (M).— Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M),« Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
*41.

Census

Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M).« Department of

Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and F. W. Dodge
Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

*12.

29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local

45.

Average weekly insured unemployment rate. State programs (M).-

Department of Labor, pureau of Employment Security
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).-National
*47.
*49.
*50.
*51.
*52.

Industrial Conference Board and B. K. Davis and Bro. Advertising Service
Index of industrial production (M).--Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
Gross national product in current dollars (Q).— Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q).— Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Bank debits outside New York City, 343 centers (M).- Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Personal income (M).— Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).—

Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Sales of retail stores (M).— Department of Commerce, Bureau o
the Census and Office of Business Economics
*55. Inde x of wholesale prices, all commodities, other than farm
pro ducts and foods (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Sta tistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

*54.

7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS

*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q).~
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of wage and salary cost per unit of output, total manufacturing (ratio of index of wage and salary disbursements in manufacturing to index of industrial production, manufacturing)
(M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and the Board of Governors of the Federal Re serve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
63. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total gross national product (ratio of compensation of employees to GNP in 1954 dollars) (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all
manufacturing industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*66. Consumer instollment debt, (EOM).—Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure (NBER seasonally adjusted data through
January 1955 used as base)
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (Q).—Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
Continued on reverse

PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE TO AVOID
PAYMENT OF POSTAGE, *3OO
<GPO)

UNITED STATES

GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
WASHINGTON. O. C.

OFFICIAL BUSINESS

COMPLETE TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES--Con.
18 OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE

97.

Backlog

98.

Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits

81. Index of consumer prices (M).« Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
82. Federal cash payments to the public (M).--Treasury Department,

Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President,
Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the
Bureau of the Census: do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the
method of seasonal adjustment

83. Federal cash receipts from the public (M).-Treasury Department,

Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President,
Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the
Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the
method of seasonal adjustment

of

capital

appropriations,

manufacturing

(Q)« —

National Industrial Conference Board; component industries
are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc., and added to obtain seasonally adjusted
total.
and currency) and commercial bank t i m e deposits (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,

Euro-

pean Countries, index of industrial production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).—Organiza-

123.
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit (M).—Treasury Department,

122.

Canada, index of industrial production (M).—Dominion Bureau of

Bu-

reau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official
seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the method of seasonal adjustment

85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits

plus currency) (M).--poard of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System

86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).--Department

of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
87. General imports, total (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census

tion for Economic Cooperation and Development
Statistics, Ottawa

125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).—Organization

for Economic Cooperation and Development

126.

France, index of industrial production (M).—Organization for

Economic Cooperation and Development

127. Italy, index of industrial production (M).—Organization for Eco-

nomic Cooperation and Development

128. Japan, index of industrial production (M).—The Bank of Japan,

Statistics Department; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
... United States, index of industrial production (M).-See series 47.

88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87) (M).—De-

DIFFUSION INDEXES

89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments

The *DW preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding business cycle series bear the same number and are obtained from the same sources. See sources above for
Dl, D5, D6, Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, and D61. Sources for
other diffusion indexes are as follows:

partment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

(Q).~Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

90. Defense Department obligations, procurement (M).—Department

of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census

91. Defense Department obligations,

total (M).--Department of De-

fense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census

92. Military prime contract awards, U.S. business firms (M).--De-

partment of Defense, Directorate tor Statistical
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census

Services;

93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings)

(M).—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no
seasonal adjustment

94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M).~F. W. Dodge

Corporation

95. Surplus or deficit. Federal income and product account ((^.—De-

partment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries

(EOD).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census




D33. Profits, Chicago PAA (M).- Pure ha sing Agents Association of
Chicago; no seasonal adjustment
D34. Profits, Manufacturing, FNCB (Q).--First National City Bank of
New York; no seasonal adjustment of series components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
D35. Net sales, total manufactures (Q).—Dun and Brad street, Inc., no
seasonal adjustment
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (Q).-Dun and Brad street, Inc.;
no seasonal adjustment
D48. Freight carloadings (Q).-Association of American Railroads; no
seasonal adjustment
D58. Wholesale prices, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment of series
components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.