Full text of Business Conditions Digest : December 1961
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DECEMBER 1961
Business
Cycle
Developments
DATA THROUGH NOVEMBER
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
BUSINESS
CYCLE
DEVELOPMENTS
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Luther H. Hodges, Secretary
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Richard M. Scammon, Director
DECEMBER 1961
DATA THROUGH NOVEMBER
Series ES1 No.61-3
A. ROSS ECKLER, Deputy Director
HOWARD C. GRIEVES, Assistant Director
CONRAD TAEUBER, Assistant Director
MORRIS H. HANSEN, Assistant Director for Research and Development
CHARLES B. LAWRENCE, JR., Assistant Director for Operations
WALTER L. KEHRES, Assistant Director for Administration
CALVERT L. DEDRICK, Chief, International Statistical Programs Office
A. W. VON STROVE, Public Information Officer
O f f i c e of Chief Economic Statistician
J U L I U S SHISKIN, C h i e f
This report is prepared under the direction of Julius Shiskin, Chief Economic
Statistician of the Bureau of the Census. His technical staff includes
Feliks Tamm, Allan H. Young, and Betty Tunstall. Editorial supervision is
provided by Geraldine Censky of the Statistical Reports Division.
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CONTENTS
Page
Important Features and Changes for This Issue
ii
Introduction
Organization and Content of the Report
Descriptions and Procedures
1
1
1
Basic Data
Chart 1.— Business Cycle Series: 1948 to 1961:
A. NBER Leading Indicators
B. NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
.
C. NBER Lagging Indicators
D. Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance
E. International Comparisons of Industrial Production
Table 1.—Basic Data for Business Cycle Series: January 1959 to Present
5
10
13
14
17
19
Analytical Measures
Table 2.—Percentage Changes for Principal Monthly and Quarterly Series:
January 1961 to Pre sent
Table 3.—Distribution of Highs in Business Cycle Indicators During Selected Months of the 1961
Expansion and Percent Currently High for Corresponding Months of the 1961 and Previous
Expansion s
..
Chart 2.—-Diffusion Indexes: 1948 to 1961:
A. NBER Leading Indicators
B. NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Table 4.—Diffusion Indexes (Percent Rising) Over Specified Intervals for 12 Major Economic
Activities: October 1958 to Present
Chart 3. —Diffusion Indexes—Actual and Anticipated: 1948 to 1961
Table 5.—Diffusion Indexes, Actual and Anticipated, Over Specified Intervals for 4 Manufacturing Activities: October 1958 to Present
„
Table 6.—Direction of Change in Series Components Over Specified Time Spans and Percent of
Series Rising: January 1959 to Present:
A. ( D l ) Average Workweek, Manufacturing (21 Industries)
B. ( D 6 ) Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods Industries (21 Industries) ...
C. (D19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks (24 Industries)
D. (D23) Index of Industrial Materials Prices (13 Industrial Materials)
E. ( D 5 ) Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, State Programs (26 A r e a s )
F. (D41) Number of Employees in Nonagricultural Establishments (32 Industries)
G. (D47) Index of Industrial Production (25 Industries)
H. (D54) Sales of Retail Stores (24 Types of Stores)
29
31
32
33
34
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
Cyclical Patterns
Chart 4. —Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns
Chart 5. —Comparisons of Specific Cycle Patterns
Table 7.—Percent of Reference Peak Levels as Measured at Designated Months After the
Reference Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions, for Selected Series
Table 8.—Percent of "Specific" Peak Levels and Percent Change from "Specific" Trough Levels
as Measured at Designated Months After the Specific Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent
Expansions, for Selected Series
47
51
55
56
Appendix
Table A.—Business Cycle Reference Dates and Duration of Expansions and Contractions in the
United States: 1854 to 1961
Table B. —"Specific" Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators
Table C.—Average Monthly Percentage Changes and Related Measures for 55 Monthly
Busine s s Cycle Se rie s
Table D.—Average Quarterly Percentage Changes and Related Measures for 12 Quarterly
Busine s s Cycle Se rie s
Table E.—Seasonal Adjustment Factors, November I960 to December 1961, for Business Cycle
Series Adjusted by Bureau of the Census or NBER
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D.C. -
57
58
59
61
62
Price 40 cents
IMPORTANT FEATURES AND CHANGES FOR THIS ISSUE
A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to
show new findings of business cycle research and newly available
economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a particular series
or series group. Such changes may involve additions or deletions of
series used, changes in placement in relation to other series, changes
in components of indexes, etc. These changes will be listed in this
section each month. The changes made in this issue are as follows:
1. The series on wholesale price index, excluding farm products
and foods (series 55) has been eliminated from chart 5 because of
difficulties in designating specific cycles during the post-World War
II period. The series on labor income in mining, manufacturing, and
construction (series 53) has been added to chart 5 and to table 8.
2. Two series, accession rate (No. 2) and layoff rate (No. 3),
which were formerly seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census,
have recently been revised and published in seasonally adjusted form
by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The revised data for these series
are plotted in chart 1 from January 1948 to September 1961 and are
shown in table 1 from January 1959 to September 1961. The seasonal
factors are no longer shown in appendix table E, but can be obtained
from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
3. Table 3, which has shown the distribution of highs and percent
currently high for selected months in the current expansion, has been
revised to include the percent of series currently high for comparable
months (in relation to the reference trough) of three post-World War
II expansions.
4. A table showing "specific" peak and trough dates for selected
business indicators has been added to the appendix (table B ) .
Experimental work for this report was carried out in collaboration with the NBER which is
responsible for much of the early research in this field.
Their background paper, Signals of
Recession and Recovery, contains an explanation of research findings helpful in interpreting
current cyclical trends, a more detailed description of the indicators and measures used, and
additional historical data. This paper (by Julius Shiskin) was published as Occasional Paper 77 of
the National Bureau of Economic Research, 261 Madison Avenue, New York 16, N . Y . (207 pages,
price $ 3 ) .
ii
Business Cycle Developments
INTRODUCTION
This report has been prepared to bring together
many of the available economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation by
specialists in business cycle analysis. The presentation and classification of series in this report
follows the business indicators approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning
dates are those designated by the National Bureau
of Economic Research (NBER) which, in recent
years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken
as implying acceptance or endorsement by the
Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle
analysis. It is intended only to supplement other
reports of the Department of Commerce that provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data
according to their usual timing relations during the
course of the business cycle and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical
comparisons that help in evaluating the current
stage of the business cycle.
The chief merits of this report are the speed
with which the data for indicators are collected,
assembled, and published and the arrangement of
the series for business cycle studies.
Electronic
computers are used for many of the computations,
thus making early publication possible. Publication is scheduled for about the 20th of the month
following the month of data.
About 70 principal indicators and over 300 components are used for the different measures shown.
The movements of the series are shown against the
background of the expansions and contractions of
the general business cycle so that "leads" and
"lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical
developments spotted. The exact number of series
included for the total and important classes of
series may vary from month to month because of
additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes. Almost all of the basic data
are available in published reports. A complete list
of the series and the sources of data is shown on
the back cover of this report. All the data shown
are seasonally adjusted where seasonal variations
appear to exist.
ORGANIZATION AND CONTENT OF THE REPORT
Three types of data are shown in this report.
They are as follows:
Basic data (chart 1 and table 1). —Over 50 business cycle indicators and 20 additional series with
business cycle significance are included. Together
they provide a broad view of current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as
well as the basis for making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
Analytical measures (charts 2-3 and tables 2-6).—
These are measures which aid in forming a judgment of ( 1 ) the magnitude of current changes compared to previous changes, (2) the imminence of a
turning point in the business cycle, and (3) the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also aid in pointing to developments
in particular industries and places.
Cyclical patterns (charts 4-5 and tables 7 - 8 ) . —
The current cyclical change is compared with
changes at corresponding stages of earlier cycles.
These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon the phase of the business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular report, certain appendix materials are presented.
These materials include historical data,
key information, and adjustment factors.
DESCRIPTIONS AND PROCEDURES
Business Cycle Series
The three major groups of series are those with
a fairly consistent timing relation to the business
cycle.
They are grouped, in accordance with the
NBER classification, as "leading," "roughly coincident," or "lagging" indicators . Additional series
are also included for a more complete coverage of
the national economy. The series are described as
follows:
NBER Leading Indicators.—Around 30 series
usually reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate economic activity as measured by the
roughly coincident series (see below). For this
reason, they are designated as "leading" series.
One group of these series pertains to activities in
the labor market, another to orders and contracts,
and so on.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—About 15
series are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial production or retail sales. For this reason they are
referred to as "roughly coincident" series.
NBER Lagging Indicators.—Some series, such
as new plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, usually have reached turning points after they were reached in aggregate
economic activity, and for this reason, they are
designated as "lagging" series.
Other series.—About 20 additional U.S. series
with business cycle significance are also shown.
Some of these series, such as change in money supply, merchandise trade balance, and cash surplus
or deficit, represent important factors in the economy, but they have not qualified as indicators for
various reasons, such as irregularity in timing.
Finally, industrial production indexes for several
countries which have important trade relations with
the United States are presented.
1
Descriptions and Procedures
Seasonal Adjustments
Official seasonally adjusted data are used in this
report wherever they are available. However, for
the special purposes of business cycle studies, a
number of series that are not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report.
These series
are as follows:
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
industries
5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs
13. Number of new business incorporations
14. Current liabilities of business failures
15. Number of business failures with liabilities
of $100,000 and over
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales,
all manufacturing corporations
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders,
30.
45.
55.
66,
81,
82,
83,
84,
90,
91,
92,
125,
128,
durable goods industries
Nonagricultural placements, all industries
Average weekly insured unemployment, State
programs
Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than farm products and foods
Consumer installment debt, end of month
Index of consumer prices
Federal payments to the public
Federal receipts from the public
Federal cash surplus or deficit
Defense Department obligations, procurement
Defense Department obligations, total
Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms
West Germany, index of industrial production
Japan, index of industrial production
Seasonal adjustments for these series were developed by either the Bureau of the Census or the
NBER. The adjustment factors used are shown in
the appendix, table E. Seasonally adjusted data
prepared by the collecting agency will be substituted
for the series mentioned above whenever they are
published.
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
The historical business cycle turning points are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate date when aggregate economic activity
reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, a business cycle turning point
will not be designated until at least 6 months after
it has occurred.
Charts
Shaded areas on the charts indicate periods of
business cycle contraction between reference dates
for peaks ("P"—beginnings of shaded a r e a s ) and
troughs ("T"—ends of shaded a r e a s ) . The shading
for a recession period will be entered only after a
trough has been designated.
The month or quarter of the latest data plotted
is indicated in a box near the end of each series.
Months are indicated by Arabic numerals and quarters by Roman numerals. Quarterly series are
identified by the letter "Q" and connected by broken
lines. Monthly series are connected by solid lines.
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Four kinds of analytical measures are presented-.—rates of change, diffusion indexes, timing
distributions, and direction-of-change tables. These
measures aid in forming a judgment of the magnitude of current changes compared to previous
changes, the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, and the extent of current changes
in different parts of the economy. They also point
to developments in particular industries and places.
Rates of change.— There is considerable interest
in the rate of acceleration during expansions and
the rate of retardation during recessions. For this
reason, rates of change for the principal monthly
and quarterly business cycle series are included in
table 2 of this report.
Rates of change are helpful
in judging and appraising trends of acceleration or
retardation in a current business cycle phase, despite the fact that the erratic nature of month-tomonth rates of change often makes it difficult to
determine the significance of a change until some
months after it has occurred. For series, such as
unemployment and layoffs, which usually move
down during expansions and up during recessions,
the changes are inverted so that, in table 2, rises
are shown as declines and declines as rises.
Diffusion indexes.—Diffusion indexes are simple
summary measures of groups of economic series.
They express, for a given group, the percent of the
series which has risen over given intervals of time.
Their turning points tend to lead the turning points
of the aggregate and they measure how widespread
a business change is. They vary between the limits
of 100 (all components rising) and zero (all components falling). Widespread increases are often
associated with rapid growth in aggregate activity,
and widespread declines with sharp reductions.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, two comparison intervals
are used: 1-month intervals (January-February,
February-March, etc.) and 3-month intervals January-April, February-May, e t c . ) . The indexes
based on 1-month intervals are more "current" but
they are also more irregular than the 3-month indexes (see chart 2). Quarterly series are compared
over 1-quarter intervals and 4-quarter intervals.
This report includes 29 diffusion indexes. Seventeen of these indexes utilize 300 components of 9
principal indicators. For 8 of these indicators,
the components are compared over 3-month as well
as 1-month spans, while for 1 of them, comparisons are made over 1-month spans only. The 12
other diffusion indexes are based on 7 series which
are closely related to the principal indicators. They
include the Chicago Purchasing Agents Association
index based on monthly reports of changes in profits
(200 companies), the First National City Bank of
New York index based on quarterly profit reports
(600 companies), and 10 NBER diffusion indexes,
as follows: Manufacturers' actual and anticipated
sales (800 companies) and actual and anticipated
Descriptions and Procedures
new orders (400 companies) , based on data from
Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; actual and anticipated
carloadings (19 commodity groups), based on data
from the Association of American Railroads; actual
and anticipated new plant and equipment expenditures (16 industries) , based on data from Office of
Business Economics and the Securities and Exchange Commission; and actual indexes of capital
appropriations for 602 companies and for 15 industries, based on data from the National Industrial
Conference Board.
Diffusion indexes constructed on the basis of
current data are often highly irregular and require
careful judgment in their use and interpretation.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D"
designate diffusion indexes. When one of these
numbers corresponds to a basic indicator series
number, it means that the diffusion index has been
computed from components of the indicator series;
for example, the diffusion index numbered "D6" is
computed from components of series number 6.
Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series
components are assigned new numbers.
Timing distributions. —Distributions of current
"highs" and "lows" appear to be helpful in identifying a turning point in the business cycle promptly
after it occurs. Each month a timing distribution
is constructed which shows the number of series
reaching high (low) values during each of the recent expansion (contraction) months. The timing
distribution is summarized by showing the number
of series reaching new highs (lows) and the percent currently high (low) for each of several recent
months (see table 3).
To compile timing distributions, the data for
each of the 50 business cycle indicators over the
period of the current cyclical phase are scanned
each month. During a business cycle contraction,
the low value for each series is identified; during
an expansion, the high value is identified. For inverted series, that is, series with negative conformity to the business cycle, high values are taken
during contraction and low values during expansion.
If the values for 2 or more months are equal, the
latest date is taken as the low (high) month. In
selecting these values, erratic values are disregarded, although it is, of course, difficult to identify
an erratic value, particularly for the current month.
The letter "L." is used in the basic data table
(table 1) to identify and highlight the current low
values during contraction and the letter "H", to
identify current high values during expansion. In
addition, these symbols are used to identify the low
values preceding current highs and high values
preceding current lows. These identifications facilitate an economic interpretation of the timing
distribution since they show the months in which
economic activities reached their lows or highs.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be
made in light of the fact that a contraction following
a high value reached several months ago may be
the result of an erratic fluctuation and that a new
high may be reached in some future month. In
short, when the percent currently high falls below
50 percent for both the leading and roughly coincident series, this does not necessarily signify that
a business cycle peak has occurred. It may do so,
but it may also simply reflect a short reversal in
the upward movement.
Direction-of-change tables.—Direction-of-change
tables show directions of change (" + " for rising,
"o" for unchanged, and "-" for falling) in the components used for the diffusion indexes. These tables
provide a convenient view of changing business conditions and are helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more highly
aggregated statistical measures. That is, they show
which economic activities went up, which went
down, and how long such movements have persisted.
They also help to show how a recession or recovery
spreads from one sector of the economy to another.
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare
the behavior of the indicator series and diffusion
indexes in the current business cycle phase with
their behavior during the corresponding phase of
previous business cycles. These comparisons are
made in different ways depending upon the phase of
the business cycle.
Contractions are compared by computing changes
over the span from the most recent business cycle
peak to the current month and over equal spans from
previous reference peaks. This type of comparison
is designated as representing changes from reference peak levels and from reference peak dates.
Expansions may be compared by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels. In this report the current expansion is related
to the May I960 reference peak. For earlier expansions, percentage changes are also computed from
their respective reference peaks to dates which are
the same number of months beyond the succeeding
reference troughs as the current expansion is beyond its reference trough. This type of comparison
is designated as representing changes computed
from reference peak levels and from reference
trough dates. Although the spans from reference
trough dates are the same for each expansion, the
spans from the preceding peak dates are different,
depending on the length of the contractions. This
type of comparison answers the question whether,
and by how much, the current level of activity exceeds or falls short of the level at the preceding
business cycle peak, a given number of months after
the recovery began, and how the current situation
compares in this respect with earlier recoveries.
Expansions also may be compared by computing
changes from reference trough levels and from
reference trough dates. This type of comparison
measures the extent of the rise from the trough
level so many months after the upswing began.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on
the basis of reference dates (which are the same
for all series), comparisons are made on the basis
of specific peak and trough dates identified for each
Descriptions and Procedures
series. For example, the specific peak in retail
sales corresponding to the May I960 reference peak
is April I960; the specific peak in stock prices is
July 1959.
Recent performance in several individual indicators is compared graphically with that in earlier
business cycles. In making graphic comparisons,
the reference peak or trough levels are set equal to
100, and the reference peak or trough dates are
alined depending on the phase of the business cycle.
In order to make historical comparisons, it is
frequently necessary to use data for a closely
related series for cycles prior to the initial date
covered by the series used currently. Such comparisons are, therefore, to be considered only approximate. Nearly all series have undergone change in
definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since
1919, The principal cases of this sort are as follows:
7. New private permanent nonf arm dwelling units
started (prior to 1939: Residential building
contracts , floor space )
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Employment in
manufacturing)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly
data as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1935: Department store sales)
62. Index of wage and salary cost per unit of output, total manufacturing (prior to 1946: Production worker wage cost per unit. Supplements to wages and salaries, which are a
part of total labor cost, are not included).
HOW TO READ THE TIME SERIES CHARTS (CHARTS 1-3)
Trough of cycle indicates end of
recession and beginning of
Expansion (white areas)
as designated by NBER
eak of cycle indicates end of
expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas)
as designated by NBER
Industrial production
Arabic numerals indicate latest month
for which data are plotted
Roman numerals indicate latest quarter for which data are plotted
50. GNP, 1954 dollars, Q
(bit I ions of dollars)
Broken line indicates quarterly data
See back cover for complete titles
and sources of series
Various ratio and arithmetic scales
are used to highlight the cyclical
timing and patterns for each series;
where different scales are used, the
rates of change are not comparable
from series to series
1957
1958
1959 1960
1961
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO 1961
NBER Leading Indicators
. —
i
i
_i—•reap.*-* '
.
{Sensitive employment and unemployment indicators I
1. Average workweek, mfg.
(hours per employee)
2. Accession rate, mfg(per 100 employees)
30. Nonag. placements, all Indus. fc
3. Layoff rate, mfg. (inverted)
(per 100 employees)
4. Temporary layoff, all indus. (inverted)
(thousands)
5. initial claims, unempl. insur. (inverted)
(week of the 12th, thousands)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/ page 4.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO 1961-Con.
NBER Leading Indicators-Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
New investment commitments
-j
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
p. 17-3 I
i. New orders, durables ^
AA
(billions of dollarsj^ v^j/^
24. New orders, moch. and equip,
(billions of dollars)
9. Constr. contracts, comm. and indus
(floor area, millions of square feet)
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip. T
(billions of dollars)
11. New capital appropriations, mfg., Q
(billions of dollars)
27. Buying policy, capital expenditures (NAPA)
(percent reporting commitments 6 months or longer)
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
29
Index of new building permits, private housing units
(1957-59=100)
-J
1948
1949
1950 1951
1952 1953
1954 1955
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/ page 4.
1956
1957 1958
1959 1960 1961
80
Basic Data
BUSINESS
CYCLE SERIES:
1948 TO 1961-Con.
NBER Leading Indicators-Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
New businesses and business failures
13. New business incorporations
14. Liab. of bus. failures (inverted)
(millions of dollars)
[ ]]
15. Large bus. failures (inverted)
number per week)
1948
1949 1950 1951 1952 1953
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.
1954 1955 1956
1957 1958 1959 1960
196T
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO 1961--Con.
NBER Leading IndicatOrs-Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
T
(July)
(Aug.)
(July) (Apr.)
(May) (Feb.)
[ Profits and stock^prices*
16. Cor x>ra
(bilIlions
lion of dollars)
+s
17. Ra tio,
(in dex
r^
s^s
.*•**"***
^-'
^r^
^\^
18. Pr<>fits
>nts
-•x (C<
19. Inc ex<
(is>41-
^
X
ii.i.
1948
-
J.I.I.I.I.U.I.I.I.i.i.l.l.U.l.M
^__^
.1.1.1.1.1. I ill
1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.
Ul 20
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO 1961-Con.
NBER Leading Indicators-Con,
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
I M . i l
I
I
Inventory investment, buying policy and sensitive prices
Change, inventories, all Indus., Q /\
(bi 11 ions of dollars)
/ \
31. Inventory change,
book value,
mfg. & trade
(billions of
dollars)
. Change, book value
purch. mtls. |
inventories, mfg. ••'
(billions of dollars)..
26. Buying policy,
prod. mtls. (NAPA)
(percent reporting
commitments 60 days or longer)
32. Vendor performance,
Chicago PAA|
(percent reporting
slower deliveries)
25. Change, unfilled orders, durables
(billions of dollars)
23. Index of industrial materials prices
(1947-49=100)
- 120
- 100
J 80
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
10
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO 1961-Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Mav) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
60
Employment and unemployment
41. Nonag, employment (establishments)
(millions)
55
50
42. Nonag. employment (household)
(millions)*
11
65
60
55
50
43. Unemployment rate (inverted)
(percent)
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
45. Insured unemployment (inverted),
(millions)
12
\j
4
46. Help-wanted advertising
(index, 1957=100)
5
120
100
80
60
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
Basic Data
1
CHART 1
1
1
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO 1961 -Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators— Con.
P 11^^
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
- j
1
11
(Aug.)
T
1;
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
1 1
-, {
L
Production
V
4' 7. Indus trial pro duction
(1957 «100)
v
X
/
/
r •-x/ W
v-N
\^/
~
:
^
\J
M
5 ). GNP, 1954 do lars, Q
(billi<>ns of dc,llars)
m
'
4 ?. GNP, current dollars, Q^
(bill! ons of d ollars)
"
i
/
/-•^
/i
/
,''"
(billions of d ollars)
s
1
x' *
;
..^4
+"'"'
550
500
450
400
550
-
500
-
450
-
.'"*
/
y
/
i
i"
400
*?i
-
?,';
«
$
k
\
»
r-" "
*!->
t,
.1.1.1.1.1, AUtltl. ikiihllll ,1.1.1.1.1, ,1,1.1.1.1.
fA»-i":
4ji ?"i<
, -C
III, I.I.I. iLdililili .l.lAtA t:|,l,l,l,l,
1 1 1 1 1 JJJJilli
1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959
1
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/ page 4.
:
425
400
-
57. Fina purcha!ies, Q
s
475
_
,
x
A
1948
80
500
m
~s
/
90
^.~+-*
-
**'
/*
:
/'
.•*"""*^
—
450
''^* '9$
s'
100
-
_,
-\ -
*
-
—
/"" .._-.—•''*
/
120
110
XN""'
y
,..,--'
—|
;
^
Y
,.—>
„
"1
\/
*
•-
•^r
/"
/
^\
7
A/
/
/
1
1960
1961
12
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO 1961-Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators-Con.
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May)
P
(Feb.)
T
1.9
Income and trade |
1.8
1.7
51. Bank debits outside N.Y.C
(trillions of dollars)
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
450
52. Personal income
(billions of dollars) "
425
400
375
350
325
53. Labor income, industrial
billions of dollars)
54. Sales of retail stores, total
(billions of dollars)
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
140
55. Wholesale prices (excl. farm and food)
index, 1947-49*100)
IX
Wholesale prices
120
110
I.I.I. .1.1.1.1.1. .1.1.1.1.1. .1.
1948
.1.1.1. .1.1.1.1.1, ,1,
1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.
100
13
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO 1961-Con.
NBER Lagging Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
If
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
- 11 Investment expenditures) (-
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May)
P
(Feb.)
T
. New plant & equip, expenditures, Q
(billions of dollars)
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.
(index, 1947-49=100)
Cost per unit of output
\
63. Labor cost per $ of real GNP, Q
(index, 1947-4SMQOJL I _.,—T*"
64 Mfrs. inventories, total
ions of dollars)
65. Mfrs. inventories, finished
(billions of dollars)
66. Consumer installment
(billions of dollars)
67. Bank rate, short-term business loans, Q
(percent)
l.l.i.l.l.l.l.l.l.l.l.l.l.l.l.l. .1.1
19501*511952l
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.
.1,1.1,1,1.1,1,1,1.1.1,1.
1958
1959 1960
196T
14
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO 1961-Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
• -.i
(Aug.)
T
i
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (FeL)
P
T
-'I
1. j
1
Foreign Trade
A
'
r* 'v. ,\^
86.
»l
1Exports, excl. mi litary
[billions of do 1 lars
lAA
^Vy
\W
^v^A
V\^
\
V
Wl
X"'
^
1.2
1.0
87. Imports, gerleral
(bil lions of dollars)
nH
/
v
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
^M/
^
fky ^
1.6
U
/sVvJ
1.2
A
—A/ yx/v*
1.0
•H
.8
^
V
••'<•
0
v
A
88>
^/J
Merchandisc trac le balan :e
[billion s of doll ars) x-
\w
w^
^f^*
*~^~*
^
+1.0
.8
+ .6
+ .4
+ .2
0.0
- .2
+1.0
•
>
l*^+-
19.
•\
\
)
Exc ess of re ceipts (n(•) or pay ments (»
A
I.S. baia nee of p<lyments, Q
in I
(bil lions of dollars)
/\ A
\
\
\
\
\
/'
i /
-.-,/
*v
,\
,N
/
14
\
\
\
\
•
\
.Illllllll
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.
+ .5
0.0
^
- .5
A\
»•
i
/'
-1.0
|
j
\ 1
\ 1
,1
„A
\ . '
" 1
k
\
nr
^
s
ILU||
-1.5
•'•'•'•'•'• ihliMth iiihiii.i
Basic Data
15
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO 1961-Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
(Aug.)
Federal cash budget and military obligations
(July) (Apr.)
(May) (Feb-)
82. Payments to the public
(billions of dollars)
83. Receipts from the public
(billions of dollars)
84. Cash surplus or deficit
(billions of dollars)
90. Military obligations, procurement
, -(billions of dollars)
Military obligations, total
(billions of dollars) _
92. Military contract awards in
(billions of dollars)
948
\\
1960
1961
Solid lines indicate 3-month moving average; latest data for 3-month moving average plotted one month behind seasonally adjusted data.
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.
Basic Data
16
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO 1961-Con.
••••••M^^^HMHHBHMMMBMMMHIM^^MMMHMif^MMMHHMHMMMMMHMHHHMMMMMMMHM
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
Ji
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
L
I Financial series
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
r -ii
85. Change in money supply
" (percent)
+.6
+.4
+.2
0.0
-.2
-.4
-.6
93. Free reserves
(billions of dollars)
+.4
+.2
0.0
-.2
-.4
-.6
150
140
81. Index of consumer prices
|(1947-49=100)
130
120
110
100
94. Construction contracts, total value
(index, 1947-49=100)
400
350
300
250
200
150
-Moo
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952 1953
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.
1954 1955
1956 1957
1958 1959 1960 1961
Basic Data
17
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO 1961-Con.
International Comparisons of Industrial Production
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
II; I
1
(July)
P
(Aug.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Industrial production indexes
T
. o. E. c. a
180
(1953=100)
160
140
120
100
80
150
122. United Kingdom
' * ' (1953*100)
130
110
90
130
* % 123. Canada
(1957*100)
110
90
70
47. United States
(1957-100)
11
130
110
90
70
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/1 page 4.
18
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO 1961-Con.
International Comparisons of Indystrial Production-Con.
(July)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(Aug.)
(July) (Apr.)
(May) (Feb.)
Industrial production indexes—Con. I, ,
h25. West Germany!
(1953=100)
948
1949
1950
195T 1952
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.
-
90
J
70
Basic Data
19
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by "L" and current highs are indicated by "H";
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 43, 44, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover.
NBER Leading Indicators
Year and
month
1 . Average
workweek,
manufacturing
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
(Hours per
employee)
(Per 100
employees )
30. Nonagricultural
placements,
all industries
(Thous.)
3. Layoff
rate, manufacturing
(Per 100
employees)
4. Number of
persons on
temporary
layoff, all
industries
5. Initial
claims for
unemployment
insurance,
State
programsx
6. Value of
manufacturers1 new
orders, durable goods
industries
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Bil. dol.)
1959
March
April
May
July
August
October
40.1
40.2
40.4
40.7
40.7
40.5
4.1
4.3
4.7
4-5
4.2
4.2
478
490
509
516
512
523
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.8
120
119
113
101
116
121
276
279
258
223
234
246
13.90
14.92
15.32
15.80
15.24
16.13
40.2
40.3
40.1
40.0
39.9
40.3
4.0
4.1
4.0
3.8
4.1
5.3
527
501
516
492
512
510
2.0
2.0
2.2
2.7
2.4
1.9
127
170
156
104
141
143
253
308
247
314
335
277
15.49
13.97
14.75
15.10
13.72
14.77
40.4
40.1
39.9
39.8
40.1
39.9
/ 1
506
535
513
504
494
482
16
1.9
22
22
22
2.6
119
106
110
141
164
146
272
272
342
270
295
309
14.19
14.80
14.64
14.47
14.68
14.34
39.9
39.6
39.4
39.5
39.3
L 38.5
^6
460
488
473
460
475
AM
26
27
26
? 3
26
29
174
178
159
191
110
187
326
391
360
363
360
404
13.84
14.41
14.62
13.74
13.60
13.22
443
444
474
L 433
481
494
2.9
L 2.9
2.3
1.9
2.0
2.2
184
L 211
206
121
154
148
385
L 441
420
345
343
319
L 12.88
13.36
13.82
14.38
14.80
14.92
470
529
491
530
H 565
25
H 19
2.0
NA
96
Io6
128
128
H 95
333
315
348
H 293
316
2
292
15.03
15.65
15.76
16.12
H 16.22
I960
March
April
May
July
L 1
i £
o 7
1 Q
3 7
q #
q 7
T
A
J1 .O
q c
q Q
1961
March
April
May
July
September.
39.0
39.3
39.3
39.7
39 g
39 9
H 46
L L
L 2
1 Q
40 o
40 o
/ 0
/ n
39.6
40 2
H 40 6
36
NA
including the 12th.
Week ended December 9, 1961.
2
L 0
3 8
20
Basic Data
Table!.-BASICDATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Con.
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by "L" and current highs are indicated by "H";
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14> 15, 43, 44, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
10. Contracts
and orders
for plant
and equipment
11. Newly approved capital appropriations,
602 mfg.
corporations
(Mil. sq.ft.
floor space)
(Bil dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
4.46
4.73
4.97
4.80
4.85
5.11
31.93
32.16
35.11
41.92
38.55
34.19
4.91
5.21
5.57
5.35
5.40
5.68
5.16
4.85
5.02
5.12
4.99
5.37
37.64
34.14
38.38
41.44
36.03
39.44
5.72
5.25
5.62
5.73
5.58
5.92
5.04
5.14
5.06
5.12
5.17
5.01
36.34
35.71
36.59
38.73
39.43
38.07
5.56
5.68
5.57
5.74
5.81
5.61
4.78
4.96
4.87
L 4.65
4.81
4.66
38.37
41.06
39.41
40.28
40.77
39.12
5.40
5.54
5.54
L 5.33
5.46
5.35
4.79
4.80
5.10
4.99
5.18
5.32
L 33.66
35.05
37.82
35.62
36.12
34.82
5.54
5.50
5.59
5.52
5.76
5.97
5.30
5.58
5.49
5.66
H 5.84
35.23
H 41.57
39.13
34-13
NA
5.83
6.12
6.00
H 6.25
24. Value of
mfrs . ' new
orders, machinery and
equipment
industries
9. Constr.
contracts
awarded for
commercial
and Indus,
buildings
(Bil. dol.)
27. Buying
policy, cap.
expend., pet.
reporting
commitments 6
mo. and over*
(Percent
reporting)
7. New private perm,
nonfarm
dwelling
units
started
29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized,
loc. bldg.
permits
Ann. raoe
(Thous.)
1957-59=0.00
1959
January
March
April
May
June.
July
August
October
December
2.16
2.36
2.46
2.51
41
43
42
49
49
50
1,542
1,503
1,567
1,568
1,546
1,532
114.1
118.7
122*8
115.5
112,9
113.3
49
53
54
49
55
49
1,555
1,450
1,498
1,360
1,350
1,451
108.9
109.3
106.0
99.9
99.4
105.3
55
50
46
50
46
50
1,302
1,366
1,089
1,275
1,309
1,264
98.3
97.9
88.1
95.1
95.9
88.5
45
47
43
39
38
L 37
1,209
1,335
1,067
1,237
1,206
L 987
91.6
87.3
87.4
89.9
91.4
L 87.1
40
39
45
45
41
38
1,098
1,115
1,262
1,143
1,268
1,351
88.7
88.8
91.6
91.8
92.3
96.9
45
H 47
46
39
39
1,318
1,301
1,365
H 1,402
1,328
97.7
100.4
96.8
102.6
H 103.4
1960
February.
March
April
May
June
July
September .........
October
November
December
2.27
2.02
L 1.79
2.19
1961
February
March
April
May
July
December
NA
1.87
1.90
H 2.27
NA
21
Basic Data
Table 1.-BASICDATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: J A N U A R Y 1959 TO PRESENT-Con.
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (#). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by "L" and current highs are indicated by "Hlf;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 43, 44, 45).
Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
12. Net
change in
business
population,
operating
businesses
(Thous.)
13. Number
of new
business
incorporations
(Number)
18. Profits
14. Current 15. Business 16. Corpor- 17. Price
liabilities failures
ate profits per unit of (before taxes) per dol.
after taxes labor cost
of business with liasales, all
bilities of
failures
index
mfg. corpo$100,000 and
rations
over
(Mil. dol.)
(Number per
week)
Ann. rate
(Bil. dol.) 0.947-49=100)
(cents)
19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks*
(1941-43=10)
1959
January
February. ......
March
April
May
June
+20
+20
July
August
September
October
November
December
+20
+15
15,$31
16,622
16,229
16,463
16,721
15,291
68.75
53.26
60.23
63.08
48.96
51.25
30
29
25
26
27
22
16,650
16,007
15,768
14,822
15,134
15,525
54.47
54.50
61.51
55.98
56.01
64.04
27
32
25
24
29
30
16,108
14,536
15,327
15,033
14,552
15,764
50.16
55.40
64.99
60.69
70.49
L 131.72
29
27
29
28
32
36
15,986
15,819
15,100
14,982
14,131
14,308
65.67
97.59
90.56
90.57
88.91
84.91
40
35
43
L 46
37
42
14,469
L 13,980
14,722
14,245
14,883
15,489
76.19
80.07
117.24
75.54
77.38
87.32
38
41
39
37
41
40
15,742
15,873
16,405
H 16,692
(NA)
H 73.59
102.69
131.08
78.07
125.48
45
H 34
40
45
39
23.4
26.1
22.7
22.7
102.8
103.7
103.3
105.1
106.1
105.4
104.4
104.2
103.1
102.6
101. 4
104.2
9,0
10.1
8.3
7.8
55.62
54.77
56.15
57.10
57.96
57.46
59.74
59.40
57.05
57.00
57.23
59.06
I960
January
February
March
April
May
June
+20
+20
July
August
+15
October
L +5
24.2
23.3
21.7
21.4
105.0
104.3
104.2
103.8
103.9
103.7
104.5
104.5
102.7
102.7
102.4
102.2
8.8
8.3
7.7
7.0
58.03
55.78
55.02
55.73
55.22
57.26
55.84
56.51
54.81
L 53.73
55.47
56.80
1961
+10
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
1
+15
H +15
December 15, 1961.
(NA)
L 20.0
22.8
H 23.8
(NA)
101.9
101.7
L 101.5
102.1
103.1
103.1
104.6
H 105.8
104.2
104.6
104.5
L 6.6
H 7.9
7.8
(NA)
59.72
62.17
64.12
65.83
66.50
65.62
65.44
67.79
67.26
68.00
H 171.08
72.01
22
Basic Data
Table 1.--BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLESERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Con.
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by "L" and current highs are indicated by "H";
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 43, 44, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
20. Change in 26. Buying
book value of policy, promfrs . ' inven- duct, matls.,
tories,
pet. report,
purchased
commitments
material
60 days plus*
32. Vendor
performance,
percent
reporting
slower
deliveries *
25. Change,
mfrs . f unfilled orders, dur.
goods industries
23. Index of
industrial
materials
prices*
(Percent
reporting)
(Percent
reporting)
(Bil. dol.)
(1947-49=100)
+2.4
+2.4
+3.3
+3.5
+4.1
+6.1
60
66
65
68
71
66
58
62
62
62
62
62
+0.70
+1.07
+1.00
+0.61
-0.60
+0.19
89.0
88.9
90.4
91.2
91.9
92.2
+6.7
-4.4
-3.7
-5.3
-4.1
+11.7
+0.3
-2.5
-5.2
-3.2
+0.5
+2.4
67
64
72
66
66
67
60
62
64
64
56
50
-0.08
-0.02
+0.83
+0.94
-0.20
-0.27
92.2
92.6
93.9
94.5
94.6
93.7
+13.6
+11.1
+10.2
+3.2
+7.9
+2.9
+4.6
+1.5
+0.8
+1.0
+0.4
-1.6
64
64
56
61
55
57
44
30
L 27
28
32
34
-0.76
-0.88
-0.77
-0.41
-0.73
-0.13
94.4
93.2
91.5
92.8
93.0
91.7
-1.2
-0.8
-1.9
-2.2
-3.0
-3.8
-1.4
-1.2
-3.2
-2.4
L -3.4
-0.4
54
50
49
50
50
L 48
36
40
41
39
38
38
-0.15
-0.08
+0.27
-0.51
L -0.72
-0.43
90.8
91.3
90.4
89.0
88.0
L 86.5
-4.9
-3.3
L -8.5
+2.9
+1.3
+1.4
-0.3
-1.0
+0.1
-0.1
+0.8
-2.2
51
49
50
57
54
56
38
40
40
47
48
48
-0.29
-0.19
-0.19
H +0.76
-0.29
+0.11
86.9
88.7
92.1
93.0
H 93.3
90.3
+4.6
+3.6
H +6.7
+4..1
(NA)
+1.1
+0.2
H +3.0
+0.7
(NA)
56
55
57
59
H 59
49
52
55
H 55
51
+0.62
+0.35
90,9
92.0
91.9
91.4
88.4
1
90.3
21. Change in
bus. inventories, farm
and nonfarm,
after val.
ad jmt .
,31. Change in
book value,
of mfg, and
trade inventories,
total
Ann. rate
(Bil. dol.)
Ann. rate
(Bil. dol.)
Ann. rate
(Bil. dol.)
+4.8
+4.8
+7.3
+12.2
+9.2
+11.6
1959
January
February
March
April
May
June.
+7.1
+11.7
July
+0.7
September
October
+5.6
December
1960
+10.9
March
April
May
July
August
September
October
November
+5.4
+2.4
-1.9
1961
January. ........
February
March
April
May
L -4.0
+2.8
July
H +4.5
September
October
November
December
1
Deceniber H, 1961.
(NA)
+0.41
+0.42
-0.18
Basic Data
23
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Con.
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by "L" and current highs are indicated by "H";
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 43, 44, 45).
Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
41. Number
of employees
in nonagricultural
establishments
Year and
month
42. Total
43. Unemnonagricul- ployment
rate
tural employment,
labor force
survey
44* Number
of unemployed persons 14 yrs.
old and over
45. Average
weekly insured unemployment ,
State
programs
46. Index of 47. Index of
help-wanted industrial
advertising production
in newspapers
(Thous.)
(Thous.
persons)
5.97
5.82
5.66
5.18
5.04
5.04
4,117
4,016
3,925
3,592
3,493
3,505
1,887
1,799
1,670
1,603
1,505
1,473
84.9
91.9
96.7
102.8
102.0
105.6
100.3
101.9
103.6
106.6
109.2
109.6
60,167
60,103
59,925
60,166
59,741
60,285
5.16
5.37
5.55
5.79
5.76
5.46
3,578
3,727
3,852
4,030
4,003
3,812
1,503
1,578
1,579
1,716
1,959
1,705
108.8
105.5
105.1
103.2
104.8
103.5
107.6
103.6
103.2
102.0
102.6
108.8
54,211
54,445
54,427
54,702
54,584
54,538
60,253
60,813
60,366
61,255
61,617
61,599
5.25
4.84
5.48
5.13
5.06
5.40
3,664
3,388
3,812
3,620
3,567
3,842
1,652
1,639
1,773
1,768
1,745
1,821
109.0
110.1
105.4
100.3
99.7
97.8
111.1
109.6
109.1
108.7
109.7
109.4
54, 5U
54,403
54,301
54,190
53,995
53,707
61,193
61,035
60,996
60,697
61,210
L 60,454
5.46
5.84
5.68
6.25
6.15
6.78
3,863
4,132
4,037
4,414
4,389
4,819
1,916
2,023
2,100
2,174
2,360
2,423
90.1
89.4
82.6
84.6
82.2
L 79.0
109.4
108.3
106.7
106.1
104.5
103.0
January, .......
February
March
April
May
53,581
L 53,485
53,561
53,663
53,894
54,182
60,667
60,860
61,212
61,224
61,480
H 61,911
6.63
6.80
6.89
6.85
6.89
6.83
4,736
4,891
L 4,970
4,889
4,923
4,946
2,470
L 2,573
2,528
2,528
2,411
2,278
79.9
79.3
81.1
79.8
82.0
83.8
102.3
L 102.1
102.6
105.6
108.3
110.4
July
54,335
54,333
54,304
54,420
H 54,478
61,432
61,417
61,188
61,308
61,840
6.89
L 6.90
6.82
6.78
H 6.07
4,938
4,957
4,843
4,831
H 4,345
2,214
2,105
2,025
1,912
H 1,897
1
- 1,889
82.6
86.1
84.8
95.9
H 99.1
112.0
113.0
111.1
112.8
H 1H.1
(Thous.)
(Thous,)
January
February. ......
March
April
May
52,446
52,612
52,843
53,328
53,606
53,779
58,837
58,914
59,277
59,640
59,847
59,991
July
53,879
53,357
53,413
53,353
53,622
54,116
(Percent)
( 1957=100) (1957=100)
50. Gross
national
product in
1954 dollars
Ann. rate
(Bil. dol.)
1959
August
September
October
December
422.1
434.4
426.6
430.7
I960
February
March
April
May
June
July
October
December
441.0
443.4
440.2
438.4
1961
September
October
November
December
1
.
Week ended December 2, 1961.
L 433.2
445.5
H 451.8
(NA)
Basic Data
24
Table 1.--BASICDATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Con.
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (#). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by "L" and current highs are indicated by "H";
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14* 15, 43, 44, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators —Continued
Year and
month
49. Gross
national
product in
current
dollars
57. Final
purchases
(series 49
minus 21)
Ann. rate
(Bil. dol.)
Ann. rate
(Bil. dol.)
472.2
465.1
488.5
476.8
482.3
481.6
488.3
482.7
501.5
490.6
506.4
501.0
505.1
502.7
504.5
506.4
L 500.8
L 504.8
51. Bank
debits outside NYC,
343 centers
52. Personal
income
53. Labor
income in
mining, mfg.
and construction
Ann. rate
(Bil dol.)
Ann. rate
(Bil. -dol.)
54. Sales of
retail
stores
55. Index of
wholesale
prices except farm
products and
foods
Ann. rate
(Bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(1947-49=100)
1959
March
April
May
June
«...
Julv
September
October
November.
December.
1,574.3
1,621.8
1,623.8
1,670.9
1,647.6
1,653.3
371.7
373.9
378.4
381.9
384.9
386.9
99.9
100.7
103.3
105.1
106.7
107.6
17,455
17,575
17,914
17,953
18,222
18,189
127.1
127.5
128.0
128.3
128.8
128.6
1,682.5
1,668.1
1,635.1
1,652.4
1,695.9
1,679.7
387.1
383.7
384.5
384.2
388.7
393.7
106.7
103.5
103.8
102.8
104.2
107.5
18,296
18,110
17,784
18,341
17,842
17,485
128.8
128.4
128.4
128.4
128.2
128.2
1,686.9
1,783.7
1,708.3
1,742.3
1,757.5
1,758.4
395.4
395.4
395.8
401.4
403.6
404.4
109.0
108.5
107.9
108.2
109.2
108.7
18,100
18,161
18,219
18,860
18,428
18,466
128.4
128.4
128.5
128.7
128.6
128.5
1,699.2
1,789.9
1,742.4
1,722.0
1,767.9
L 1,710.7
404.7
405.2
405.5
406.4
406.0
404.0
108.4
107.3
107.0
106.6
105.4
103.4
18,118
18,201
18,104
18,543
18,398
17,887
128.6
128.2
127.9
128.0
127.6
L 127.5
1,782.6
1,775.0
1,775.2
1,783.4
1,872.3
1,846.1
403.6
L 403.1
H05.5
409.8
413.2
417.3
103.4
L 102.8
103.7
106.3
107.7
109.9
L 17,773
17,795
18,127
17,860
17,995
18,199
127.7
127.8
H 128.1
128.0
128.0
127.7
110.2
109.8
109.7
110.8
H 112.1
18,026
18,181
18,141
18,622
H 19,270
127.8
127.4
127.5
127.3
127.2
2
127.3
I960
February. ........
March
April
May
June.
July
August
October
December
1961
January
March
April
May
June
516.1
513.3
julv
September
October
December
H 525.8
H 521.3
(NA)
(NA)
1,817.5
1,854.6
1,818.5
1,890.7
H 1,918.0
1
418.6
419.4
421.1
425.2
H 429.0
Excludes stepped-up rate of payments and special payments of government life insurance dividends to veterans
in March 1961 ($1.8 billion) and July 1961 ($2.6 billion), respectively.
2
Week ended December 12, 1961.
Basic Data
25
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Con.
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by "L" and current highs are indicated by "HM;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 43, 44, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover.
Year and
month
61. Business
expenditures
on new plant
and equipment, total
62. Index of
wage and
salary cost
per unit of
output, total mfg.
Ann. rate
(Bil. dol.)
(1947-49=100)
NBER
63. Index of
labor cost
per unit
of output,
total GNP
Lagging Indicators
64. Book
65. Book
value, mfrs.1
value of
mfrs . ' in- inventories
of finished
ventories,
goods, all
all mfg.
mfg. indus.
industries
66. Consumer
installment
debt, end of
month
(1947-49=100) (Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
49.5
49.9
50.5
51.1
51.6
52.1
18.8
19.1
19.2
19.3
19.4
19.3
33,987
34,423
34,725
35,201
35,679
36,186
52.2
52.1
51.9
51.5
51.6
52.4
19.3
19.4
19.6
19.6
19.7
20.1
36,686
37,349
37,900
38,505
38,946
39,263
53.3
53.9
54.3
54.7
55.0
55.1
20.4
20.6
20.8
21.0
21.2
21.3
39,698
40,228
40,547
41,103
41,415
41,710
54.9
55.0
54.7
54.4
54.0
53.7
21.4
21.6
21.9
21.9
21.9
21.8
41,841
42,042
42,221
42,421
42,618
42,641
53.7
53.6
L 53.3
53.4
53.4
53.4
21.8
21.8
21.7
21.7
21.5
21.5
42,739
42,734
42,612
42,455
42,424
42,399
53.5
54.0
54.4
H 54.8
L 21.5
21.7
21.8
H 21.9
L 42,246
42,298
42,258
H 42,544
NA
NA
67. Bank
rates on
short-term
business
loans, 19
cities*
(Percent)
1959
February
March
April
May
30.60
32.50
July
August
33.35
October
November
33.60
121.7
120.8
121.4
119.6
118.6
119.3
120.4
120.5
122.0
122.3
123.7
120.3
135.5
136.4
139.1
138.7
4.51
4.87
5.27
5.36
I960
January
February
March
April
May
June
35.15
i- 36.30
July
35.90
September
October
35.50
December
119.6
120.5
120.8
121.3
120.9
121.2
120.4
120.4
122.3
122.5
122.8
123.1
139.1
140.4
142.1
141.9
5.34
5.35
4.97
4.99
1961
33.85
March
April
May
L 33.50
July
August
H 34-70
October
November
^5.90
2
36.50
^•Anticipated.
2
lst quarter 1962, anticipated.
123.7
124.0
124.1
123.0
121.3
120.9
119.3
L 118.2
H 120.1
119.4
119.7
142.7
L 142.5
H 143.3
(NA)
NA
4.97
L 4.97
H 4.99
NA
Basic Data
26
Table!.--BASICDATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT--Con.
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (-*).
Series numbers are for identification purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or
order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on
the back cover.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance
86. Exports,
excluding
military aid
shipments,
total
87. General
imports,
total
88. Merchandise trade
balance
(series 86
minus 87)
89. Excess,
receipts (+)
or payments
(-) in U.S.
balance of
payments
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
January
February
March
April
May
June
1,318.6
1,292.1
1,301.0
1,296.8
1,326.6
1,345.9
1,164.6
1,194.5
1,213.5
1,210.3
1,312.9
1,311.7
+154.0
+97.6
+87.5
+86.5
+13.7
+34.2
July
August
1,394.7
1,429.2
1,498.6
1,335.3
1,380.7
1,497.1
1,251.1
1,298.3
1,407.9
1,200.5
1,298.6
1,333.2
+143.6
+130.9
+90.7
+134.8
+82.1
+163.9
1,561.3
1,584.0
1,496.3
1,621.1
1,632.6
1,626.0
1,208.2
1,305.8
1,253.4
1,309.3
1,230.9
1,264.8
+353.1
+278.2
+242.9
+311.8
+401.7
+361.2
1,735.7
1,621.5
1,609.7
1,706.6
1,676.6
1,621.4
1,258.2
1,228.1
1,177.4
1,196.2
1,128.0
1,099.7
+477.5
+393.4
+432.3
+510.4
+548.6
+521.7
1,649.2
1,763.5
1,687.1
1,655.2
1,554.5
1,591.2
1,119.1
1,121.6
1,127.1
1,129.1
1,117.4
1,180.9
+530.1
+641.9
+560.0
+526.1
+437.1
+410.3
1,707.2
1,670.5
1,628.9
1,819.5
(NA)
1,371.4
1,242.8
1,249.0
1,318.9
(NA)
+335.8
+427.7
+379.9
+500.6
(NA)
Year and
month
1959
October
November
December. ........
-885
1
-lf12B
-1,190
-694
82. Federal
payments to
the public
Ann. rate
(Bil. dol.)
83. Federal
receipts
from the
public
Ann. rate
(Bil. dol.)
84. Federal
cash surplus
or deficit
Ann. rate
(Bil. dol.)
100.0
96.0
92.7
96o4
95.1
96.2
81.5
84.9
76.8
87.2
86.0
81.2
-18.5
-11.1
-15.9
-9.2
-9.1
-15.0
97.0
96.2
93.2
92.9
99.9
91.2
89.4
92.4
95.7
88.3
96.6
98.8
-7.6
-3.8
+2.5
-4.6
-3.3
+7.6
89.4
96.1
93.1
94.2
96.6
92.1
89.1
97.5
91.1
102.5
106.7
93.0
-0.3
+1.4
-2.0
+8.3
+10.1
+0.9
88, 7
100.6
93.3
93.2
104.1
94.1
90.4
106.5
100.8
89.2
105.8
102.4
+1.7
+5.9
+7.5
-4.0
+1.7
+8.3
96.3
93.4
108.7
100.5
113.1
105.9
91.5
93.9
85.3
101.7
105.8
93.0
-4.8
+0.5
-23.4
+1.2
-7.3
-12.9
93.6
118.9
99.2
111.2
110.3
86.6
107.4
100.8
95.6
107.4
-7.0
-11.5
+1.6
-15.6
-2.9
I960
February
March
April
May
June
July
September
October
November
December.
-620
-763
-1,112
2
-1,434
1961
January
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
-351
3
+249
-850
(NA)
December
1
2
3
Excludes U.S. subscription to International Monetary Fund of $1,375 million in gold and securities.
Includes single direct investment transactions of $370 million.
Includes $650 million in special debt payments to the United States.
27
Basic Data
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FCR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Con.
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (#). Series numbers are for identification purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or
order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on
the back cover.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance — Continued
Year and
month
85. Percent
change in
total U.S.
money supply
90. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
91. Defense
Department
obligations,
total
92. Military
prime contract awards
to U.S. business firms
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Percent)
(Mil. dol.)
1,310
1,383
1,313
1,381
1,338
1,502
3,581
3,688
3,695
3,552
3,586
3,811
1,570
2,207
1,811
2,165
1,491
1,950
-HO. 28
4-0.28
4-0.28
4-0.14
+0.28
+0,14
-60
-48
-140
-259
-319
-513
123.9
123.8
123.7
123.9
124.0
124.3
248
241
277
299
259
288
1,077
1,125
1,387
1,393
1,051
834
3,747
3,476
3,886
3,764
3,508
3,076
2,139
1,907
1,647
1,935
1,994
1,370
4-0.35
-0.35
0.00
-0.28
-0.14
-0.49
-557
-535
-493
-459
-433
-424
124.7
124.8
125.1
125.4
125.5
125.6
289
258
269
278
231
244
947
1,140
990
978
1,319
1,348
3,318
3,532
3,346
3,313
3,686
3,723
1,981
1,712
1,826
1,637
2,041
1,746
-0.14
-0.21
-0.28
-0.07
-0.43
-0.36
-361
-361
-219
-194
-33
+41
125.5
125.7
125.7
126.2
126.3
126.1
235
234
252
266
244
272
2,574
1,687
1,259
906
1,434
1,047
5,292
4,154
3,868
3,260
3,969
3,513
1,830
2,005
2,040
1,340
1,892
2,050
+0.14
4-0.07
+0.50
+0.14
-0.28
+0.14
+120
+247
+414
+489
+614
+682
126.3
126.6
126.7
127.0
127.3
127.6
285
276
271
294
280
302
1,340
1,555
1,136
1,089
1,071
1,278
3,740
4,097
3,540
3,405
3,608
3,641
2,225
1,988
1,888
2,222
1,821
1,950
+0.14
+0.43
+0.21
+0.35
0.00
+0.07
+696
+517
+476
+562
+453
+549
127.5
127.6
127.5
127.5
127.4
127.2
273
239
262
261
257
281
1,505
•3,147
1,927
1,289
(NA)
4,273
5,843
4,676
4,124
(NA)
1,538
2,018
(NA)
-0.07
-0.14
+0.85
+0.49
+0.28
+530
+537
+552
+442
+509
127.8
128.0
128.2
128.1
(NA)
277
293
261
289
93. Free
reserves*
81. Index of
consumer
prices
94. Index of
construction
contracts,
total value
(1947-49=100) (1947-49=100)
1959
February
March
April
May
July
August . . *
September
November
I960
April
May
July
September
December
1961
March
April
May
July
September
October
Novenfcer
December
(NA)
Basic Data
28
Table 1.--BASICDATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: J A N U A R Y 1959 TO PRESENT-Con.
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (#). Series numbers are for identification purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or
order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on
the back cover.
International comparisons of industrial production
1
Year and
month
121. OECD
countries,
index of
industrial
production
122. United
Kingdom,
index of
industrial
production
123. Canada,
index of
industrial
production
(1953=100)
(1953=100)
(1957=100)
134
136
139
139
139
141
115
115
117
118
118
120
104
105
105
108
107
108
141
143
145
147
150
153
121
122
124
126
126
128
151
152
155
154
155
157
47. United
States,
index of
industrial
production
126. France,
125. West
index of
Germany,
index of
industrial
industrial production
production
127. Italy, 128. Japan,
index of
index of
industrial
industrial
production
production
(1953=100)
(1953=100)
(1953=100)
(1955=100)
100
102
104
107
109
110,
152
154
161
158
159
160
149
152
152
156
157
159
148
154
154
153
154
152
157
159
162
167
173
178
107
106
108
110
108
109
108
104
103
102
103
109
162
165
166
169
170
174
159
159
161
163
169
175
152
158
162
165
171
173
180
184
187
192
196
202
128
128
129
131
131
130
111
110
111
108
108
108
111
110
109
109
110
109
172
174
177
176
179
181
169
167
167
170
169
174
172
178
180
179
181
184
206
210
213
216
218
220
156
157
158
158
159
160
130
131
131
131
129
131
106
107
108
108
107
107
110
108
107
106
105
103
179
180
183
183
185
185
175
177
180
180
183
181
183
186
185
184
188
187
224
227
231
235
244
243
160
162
163
162
162
164
129
130
130
132
131
133
107
107
106
109
109
111
102
102
103
106
108
110
191
191
193
188
192
193
179
179
180
180
182
183
190
197
193
194
195
197
248
246
259
257
266
272
162
163
162
134
133
131
NA
111
113
112
113
111
113
IH
186
189
184
191
NA
184
184
185
187
NA
198
197
200
NA
276
278
(NA)
(1957=100)
1959
January
March
April
May
July
October
December.
I960
February
March
April
May
July
October
1961
March
April
May
June
July
October
NA
in
NA
December
1
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Analytical Measures
29
Table 2.--PERCENTAGE CHANGES FOR PRINCIPAL MONTHLY AND QUARTERLY SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT
Monthly percent changes
Selected monthly series
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr? May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.2 Jan.
Feb. Mar. Apr. May
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
+0.8
Average workweek, manufacturing
Accession rate, manufacturing
-5.0
Nonagricultural placements, all industries. +0.2
1
Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted) ..... . 0.0
Initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (inverted)
-14.5
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
goods industries
+3.7
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries
+0.2
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space... +4.1
1.
2.
30.
3.
5.
7. New private permanent nonfarm dwelling
units started
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits
13. Number of new business incorporations. .....
14. Current liabilities of business failures
(inverted)1.
17. Price per unit of labor cost index
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks...
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries
23. Index of industrial materials prices
0.0 +1.0
+21.1
-4.3
-8.6
+6.8
+20.7 +17.4
+0.3 +0.3 +0..2 0.0
-4.5 -7.1 +2.6 +2.5
+11.1 +2.7 -4.9 +12.6
-5.3 -10.0 -13.6 +24.0
-1.0 +1.5 +1.0
-12.2
NA
NA
-7.2 +7.9 +6.6
NA
NA
-5.3
+4.8 +17.9 +0.6 +7.0 -4.4 +5.4 -10.5 +15.8
-7.8
+3.4
+4.1 +2.9 +0.8 +0.7 +4.1 +0.7 +2.3
+0.6
+6.2
-2 ..2 +3.8
+3.1
+3.2
+7.9
-5.8
+1.2 +18.0 -5.9 -12.8
NA
+4.9 +2.7
-5.3
+2.7
+1.4 -3.6
+1.5 +13.2
-9.4 +10.9 +6.5
+0.1 +3.2
-3.4 +5.3
+0.2
-3.2
+0.5
+4.5
-0.4
-2.4
+5.3
-1.3
-1.6
+5.0 +0.8 +2.8 -3.6
+4.1 +1.6 +0.8 +3.4
+7.6
+6.0 +0.8
NA
+1.7
-5.1 -46.4 +35.6 -2.4 -12.8 +15.7 -39.5 -27.6 +40.4 -60.7
-0.2 -0.3
+0.7 +0.9 +0.1 +1.5 +1.1 -1.5 +0.4 -0.1
+2.7 +1.0 -1.3 -0.3 +3.6 -0.8 +1.1 +4.5 +1.3
+4.1 +3.1
0.0 +17.5 +2.1
+5.3
+2.1 +3.8
+1.0 +0.3
0.0 +2.1 +6.1 +5.8
-3.2 +0.7 +1.2 -0.1
0.0 -7.3
-0.5 -3.3
+2.1
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural
establishments
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor
force survey
43 . Unemployment rate (inverted)1
45. Average weekly insured unemployment, State
programs ( inverted )1
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers
47. Index of industrial production
51. Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and
construction
54. Sales of retail stores
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than farm products and foods
+0.2
-0.2
+0.1
+0.2
+0.3
0.0 -0.1
+0.3
-2.6
+0.6
-1.3
0.0 +0.4 +0.7 -0.8
+0.6 -0.6 +0.9 -0.9
0.0 -0.4
-0.1 +1.2
+0.2 +0.9
+0.6 +10.5
-4.2
+1.7
0.0 +4.6 +5.5
+2.8
+4.9 +3.8
+5.6
-0.8
-1.4
+4.2
+0.4 +0.5
+0.1
+0.8 +0.4
+2.3
-1.6
+2.8 +2.2
-0.2 +0.5
-0.4 0.0
-0.1 +0.6
+2.9
+0.5
+1.1
+2.6 +1.9 +1.4 +0.9 -1.7 +1.5 +1.2
+5.0 -1.4 -1.6 +2.0 -1.9 +4.0 +1.4
+0.8 +1.0 +0.3 +0.2 +0.4 +1.0 +0.9
-0.6 +0.9
+0.1 +1.9
+2.5
-1.5
+1.3
+0.8
+0.2
-0.1
0.0 -0.2
+0.1
-0.9
-1.4 -0.3
-0.5
+0.1
-0.5
-0.3
0.0 -0.9
-0.4 -0.1
+0.1
+2.0
+1.1
+0.3
-1.0
-0.4
+0.9
-1.5 +13.1
-0.1
-0.2
+3.3
+1.0 +1.2
+2.7 +3.5
+0.1 -0.3
+0.1 -0.2
-0.1
-1.3
+1.6
-0.6
+0.3
+0.9 +0.8
+0.7
NA
+0.5
+0.7
NA
NA
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
62. Index of wage and salary cost per unit of
+0.2
output , total manufacturing
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories,
-0.1
all manufacturing industries
65 . Book value of manufacturers ' inventories of
finished goods , all manufacturing indus . . .0.0
66. Consumer installment debt, end of month.... 0.0
0.0
0.0 +0.3
-0.9
0.0 0.0 +0.9
-0.1 -0.4 +0.1
+0.5
-0.1
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
86.
87.
82.
83.
90.
81.
Exports, excl. military aid shipments, total
General imports, total
Federal payments to the public
Federal receipts from the public
Defense Department obligations, procurement
Index of consumer prices
See footnotes at end of table.
+6.9
+0.2
-3.0
+2.6
+16.0
+0.1
-4.3
-1.9
+0.2
+0.5
+16.4 -7.5
-9.2 +19.2
-26.9
-4.1
-0.1
0.0
-6.1
-1.0
+12.5
+4.0
-1.7
-0.1
NA
+2.4 +7.3 -2.2 -2.5 +11.7
NA
+5.7 +16.1 -9.4 +0.5 +5.6
-6.4 -11.6 +27.0 -16.6 +12.2 -0.9
-12.1 -6.9 +24.0 -6.1 -5.2 +12.3
NA
+19.3 +17.8 +109J -38.8 -33.1
NA
-0.2 +0.5 ^+0.2 +0.2 -0.1
+0.1
30
Analytical Measures
Table 2.-PERCENTAGE CHANGES FOR PRINCIPAL MONTHLY AND QUARTERLY SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Con.
Quarterly percent changes
Selected quarterly series
4th quarter I960
to
1st quarter 1961
1st quarter 1961
to
2nd quarter 1961
2nd quarter 1961
to
3rd quarter 1961
3rd quarter 1961
to
4th quarter 1961
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11. Newly approved capital appropriations,
602 manufacturing corporations
12. Net change in the business population,
operating businesses
16. Corporate profits after taxes
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales,
all manufacturing coporations
-14.6
+1.6
+19.5
+100.0
-6.5
+50.0
+14.0
0.0
+4.4
-5.7
+19.7
-1.3
-1.2
-0.7
-0.3
+2.8
+3.1
+1.7
+1.4
+1.9
+1.6
-4.6
-1.0
+3.6
+0.6
-0.1
+0.6
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars
49. Gross national product in current dollars..
57. Final purchases (series 49 minus series 21)
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total
63. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
total gross national product
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities
-0.4
0.0
+0.4
1
Because this series usually falls when general business activity rises and rises when business falls, it is inverted
so that rises are shown as declines and vice versa.
The month-to-month percentage changes are calculated in the usual
way, but the signs are reversed to facilitate interpretations of the cyclical movements; for example, if the rate decreased by 0.6 percent, the sign of this drop is reversed and shown as +0.6.
2
November to December percentage changes cover part of December only.
Analytical Measures
31
Table 3.-- DISTRIBUTION OF HIGHS IN BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS DURING SELECTED MONTHS OF THE 1961 EXPANSION AND PERCENT
CURRENTLY HIGH FOR CORRESPONDING MONTHS OF 1961 AND RECENT EXPANSIONS
Month of 1961 expansion
Year and month
April
(2d mo.)
May
(3d mo.)
June
(4th mo.)
July
(5th mo.)
September
August
(6th mo.) (7th mo.)
November
October
(8th mo.) (9th mo.)
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1961
January
February
March
April
May
June
**6
15
2
7
13
2
7
3
10
July
August
2
3
2
4
11
1
2
1
1
1
1
4
14
2
11
6
October
November
Series with no high
Total series used
mm
1
1
'l
1
2
3
2
11
1
2
2
8
1
22
0
22
0
22
0
22
0
22
0
22
0
20
0
15
"3
2
1
"i
"i
"i
1
8
1
8
1
3
5
1
2
2
i
1
2
1
1
2
2
3
1
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
1961
January
February
March
April
May
7
July
A,
September
October
November
Series with no high
Total series used
8
9
1
11
1
11
1
11
1
11
1
11
0
11
0
11
0
11
Percent of series reaching their highs in corresponding months of 1961 and
previous expansions
Expansion period
(4th mo. ) (5th mo.) (6th mo. ) (7th mo.) ' (8th mo.)
(9th mo.)
(2d mo.)
^3d mo.)
68
73
76
47
59
82
57
53
45
73
57
63
50
77
76
53
64
77
52
63
27
73
57
89
55
41
29
53
53
59
43
74
64
82
73
64
73
64
91
64
73
64
91
82
45
91
73
91
36
82
91
91
27
91
82
91
73
73
91
91
82
73
100
100
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
19611958-60
1954-57
1949-53
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
19611958-60
1954-57
1949-53
NOTE: All quarterly series, 2 leading monthly series (series 7 and 15), and 1 roughly coincident monthly series
(series 44) are omitted.
32
Analytical Measures
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO 1961
•••••••••••••••••••••••••••^•••
NBER Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(May) (FeL)
p
j
(Aug.)
T
I Dl. Average workweek, mfg.
(21 industries)
D6. New Orders, durables
(21 industries)
Dll.
Capita! Appropriations, mfg.
15 industries, One-Quarter
602 companies, Four-Quarter
D33.Profits, Chicago PAA
(200 companies)
Percent reporting higher profits A
D34. Profits, First Nat. City Bank of N. Y,
(600 companies)
Percent reporting higher profits
D19. Stock Prices
(82 industries)
D23. Industrial Materials Prices
(13 industrial materials)
}D5. Initial Claims Unempl. Insur
inverted (47 areas)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
Percentage
Expanding
33
Analytical Measures
DIFFUSION IKDEXES: 1948 TO 1961-Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(July)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
JL
One-Month Intervals ] pf
(May) (Feb-) percentage
I
Expanding
041* Nonagricultural Employment
(32 industries)
100
A
50
0
2
047. Industrial Production
(25 industries)
hi
V
100
50
0
V
D58. Wholesale Prices, mfg. goods
(23 industries)
.
WV
100
50
0
'' (Three-Month Intervals! $*
D54. Sales of Retail Stores
(24 types of stores)
100
50
0
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/ page 4
1954
1955
1956
IS
1960
1961
34
Analytical Measures
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) OVER SPECIFIED INTERVALS FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES:
OCTOBER 1958 TO PRESENT
Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are centered on the
middle month; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in 1st month of 2d
quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted directly. Table 6 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown.
NBER Leading Indexes
Year and
month
Dl. Average workweek,
manufacturing
(21 industries)
1-month
interval
D6. Value of manufacturers'
new orders, durable goods
industries (21 industries)
1-month
interval
3Hnonth
interval
3-month
interval
Dll. Newly approved
capital appropriations
a. 602 companies
4-quarter
interval
b. 15 industries
1-quarter
interval
D33. Profits,
Chicago PAA
(200
companies)
1-month
interval
1958
November
61.9
81.0
47.6
90.5
85.7
90.5
66.7
47.6
52.4
71.4
66.7
64.3
83.3
73.8
78.6
76.2
35.7
33.3
47.6
38.1
21.4
38.1
33.3
78.6
78.6
81.0
88.1
92.9
52.4
21.4
16.7
23.8
21.4
19.0
61.9
52.4
61.9
73.8
85.7
52.4
40.5
71.4
52.4
9.5
76.2
52.4
42.9
85.7
71.4
100.0
90.5
76.2
42.9
57.1
31.0
33.3
42.9
57.1
66.7
52.4
26.2
19.0
31.0
35.7
78.6
28.6
42.9
26.2
28.6
40.5
28.6
11.9
35.7
11.9
11.9
47.6
59.5
59.5
16.7
16.7
16.7
19.0
0.0
26.2
28.6
61.9
14.3
57.1
54.8
28.6
38.1
71.4
33.3
28.6
61.9
28.6
57.1
28.6
47.6
42.9
50.0
28.6
52.4
38.1
52.4
26.2
35.7
42.9
52.4
88.1
90.5
81.0
92.9
69.0
78.6
45.2
71.4
76.2
52.4
47.6
78.6
52.4
59.5
57.1
59.5
73.8
57.1
57.1
57.1
33.3
90.5
76.2
81.0
61.V
66.7
76.2
66.7
61,9
71.4
60.0
44
51
42
66.7
48
52
50
56
58
56
54
50
42
40
44
48
70
1959
February.
March
April
May
July
September
November
I960
January.
March
April
May
July
November
64
66.7
60
73.3
54
33.3
46
40.0
44
46.7
40
33.3
40
50.0
50
46
36
40
44
42
44
39
34
34
34
28
30
1961
March
April
May
July
August
November
December
1
83.3
73.8
57.1
183.3
50.0
90.5
40.5
42.9
38.1
66.6
73.8
1
Latest BLS revisions have been carried back to this month.
46.7
(NA)
60.0
(NA)
27
31
37
46
50
48
42
51
50
47
50
Analytical Measures
35
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) OVER SPECIFIED INTERVALS FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES:
OCTOBER 1958 TO PRESENT-Continued
Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are centered on the
middle month; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in 1st month of 2d
quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted directly. Table 6 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown.
NBER Leading Indexes — Continued
Year and
month
D34. Profits, D19. Index of stock prices,
500 common stocks
FNCB (600)
(82 industries)1
companies)
1-month
interval
1-quarter
interval
3 -month
interval
D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month
interval
3 -month
interval
D5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State
programs (47 areas)
1-month
interval
3-month
interval
1958
55
80.8
87.2
79.7
91.9
94.2
93.0
69.2
88.5
34.6
69.2
69.2
53.8
76.6
63.8
34.0
89.4
74.5
87.2
55
86.0
65.1
80.8
54.1
35.3
55.2
81.4
42.4
10.5
53.5
57.0
73.2
86.0
85.5
77.9
70.9
51.2
68.0
66.3
36.0
20.9
26.2
64.0
57.0
50.0
50.0
73.1
50.0
53.8
61.5
50.0
57.7
61.5
53.8
53.8
57.7
53.8
46.2
57.7
73.1
61.5
53.8
57.7
53.8
57.7
53.8
57.7
46.2
91.5
55.3
63.8
83.0
36.2
30.9
45.7
29.8
50.0
17.0
51.1
91.5
80.9
89.4
83.0
87.2
63.8
40.4
25.5
23.4
6.4
17.0
53.2
83.0
28.5
11.2
33.5
52.4
36.5
75.9
32.9
76.5
15.3
23.5
89.4
80.7
27.1
11.8
27.6
41.2
52.4
50.6
63.5
38.8
36.5
42.4
76.5
93.8
69.2
42.3
46.2
53.8
50.0
57.7
46.2
46.2
42.3
23.1
46.2
26.9
53.8
53.8
46.2
46.2
50.0
46.2
38.5
57.7
34.6
42.3
15.4
30.8
44.7
67.9
29.8
55.3
38.3
44.7
55.3
17.0
60.0
40.4
46.8
48.9
83.3
40.5
40.5
27.7
42.6
38.3
21.3
33.3
20.0
48.9
30.9
54.3
87.0
96.3
86.0
72.6
81.1
40.2
42.1
81.1
39.6
45.7
87.8
96.3
96.3
95.1
93.9
70.7
57.3
57.9
54.9
55.5
62.2
38.5
69.2
80.8
65.4
53.8
46.2
50.0
76.9
53.8
38.5
30.8
2
65.4
46.2
76.9
73.1
80.8
57.7
50.0
53.8
69.2
69.2
42.3
2
46.2
60.6
46.8
70.2
52.1
42.6
55.3
46.8
44.7
46.8
72.3
70.2
53.2
68.1
61.7
66.0
61.7
51.1
55.3
40.4
60.6
76.6
1959
February
March
April
May
72
46
July
September
45
1960
January
March
April
May
June
July
August
October.
49
49
43
44
December
1961
44
February
March
April
May
69
July
August
56
October
NA
December
3
The diffusion index is based on 86 components through January I960; on 85 components,February I960 to November I960,
and on 82 components thereafter.
19 components and 5 composites representing an additional 22 components are shown in
the direction-of-change table (table 6C).
December 14, 1961.
Analytical Measures
36
Table 4.--DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) OVER SPECIFIED INTERVALS FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES:
OCTOBER 1958 TO PRESENT-Continued
Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are centered on the
middle month; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in 1st month of 2d
quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted directly. Table 6 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indexes
Year and
month
D41. Number of employees
in nonagricultural establishments (32 industries)1
1-month
interval
1958
October
December
1959
January, . , . , T T , » T T
March
April
Mav
June
July
September
3 -month
interval
D47. Index of industrial
production
(25 industries)
1-month
interval
3-month
interval
D54. Sales of retail stores
(24 types of stores)
1-month
interval
3-month
interval
D58. Index of
wholesale
prices ( 23
mfg. indus.)
1-month
interval
37.5
46.9
53.1
57.8
59.4
64.1
74.0
94.0
56.0
92.0
88.0
80.0
87.5
47.9
75.0
37.5
83.3
60.4
62.9
49.9
46.7
70.3
50.0
78.1
84.4
75.0
78.1
67.2
43.8
62.5
23.4
43.8
65.6
57.8
76.6
79.7
85.9
76.6
75.0
65.6
56.2
42.2
48.4
37.5
46.9
56.0
60.0
76.0
88.0
90.0
56.0
74.0
28.0
44.0
38.0
50.0
92.0
70.0
76.0
88.0
92.0
84.0
76.0
62.0
44.0
26.0
34.0
58.0
84.0
37.5
58.3
83.3
47.9
68.8
39.6
66.7
39.6
29.2
39.6
77.1
41.7
81.2
81.2
77.1
89.6
58.3
66.7
29.2
50.0
45.8
62.5
54.2
58.3
64.7
84.8
76.4
64.0
81.7
69.3
56.9
43.4
60.2
56.4
58.6
46.7
57.8
60.9
32.8
68.8
60.9
51.6
45.3
35.9
29.7
23.4
20.3
15.6
65.6
60.9
56.2
54.7
60.9
57.8
35.9
37.5
21.9
25.0
12.5
17.2
62.0
16. C
52.0
62.0
66.0
58.0
52.0
34.0
18. C
46.0
30.0
20.0
66.0
38.0
42.0
74.0
76.0
68.0
34.0
14.0
20.0
16.0
24.0
16.0
68.8
50.0
45.8
79.2
14.6
60.4
50.0
41.7
50.0
62.5
37.5
31.2
37.5
47.9
79.2
54.2
62.5
20.8
45.8
41.7
45.8
45.8
43.8
41.7
58.1
47.8
52.5
48.8
38.2
38.9
43.9
32.5
32.0
36.9
39.0
38.1
18.8
26.6
60.0
83.3
90.0
83.3
85.0
46.7
50.0
50.0
46.0
32.0
58.0
86.0
84.0
84.0
76.0
66.0
22.0
76.0
82.0
32.0
56.0
80.0
92.0
94.0
84.0
100.0
64.0
72.0
64.0
58.3
47.9
79.2
25.0
45.8
79.2
41.7
68.8
33.3
79.2
72.9
39.6
72.9
47.9
58.3
54.2
70.8
83.3
35.4
75.0
81.2
38.6
I960
February
March
April
May
July
August
1961
February
March
April
May
=,
July
November. . . ....
December. .........
1
2
43.8
21.9
53.1
£65.0
85.0
86.7
56.7
55.0
36.7
65.0
48.3
2
After March 1961, this series is based on 30 components.
Latest BLS revisions have been carried back to this month.
41.3
52.5
64.0
49.1
51.9
50.4
52.1
60.2
43.4
45.6
Analytical Measures
37
DIFFUSION INDEXES-ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED: 1948 TO 1961
——— Actual
' • • Anticipated
•-•••Change in total carloadings
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (FeL) Percentage
P
J
Expanding
100
50
0
100
50
0
100
50
100
50
0
Latest data plotted covering spans:
Series D35 and D36
D48
D61
'Increase of 500,000 carloadingt plotted ot 100; no change ot 50; decrease of 500,000
carloodings at 0.
IY '61-1 '62
Analytical Measures
38
Table 5.--DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED, OVER SPECIFIED INTERVALS FOR 4 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITIESOCTOBER 1958 TO PRESENT
Numbers are centered within intervals: 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed
in 1st month of 2d quarter
Year and
month
Anticipated
Actual
1958
October
November. . . .
December. . . .
July
August
September...
October
November....
December. . . .
I960
January
February. . . .
March
April
May
June
July
August
September. . .
October. . . . .
November ....
December....
1961
January
February
March
April
May
Actual
Change in
Anticipated total
(000)
86
85
83
84.2
89.5
+321
84
88
82
84
52.6
78.9
-173
76
87
76
84
42.1
84.2
-73
78
82
76
77
57.9
89.5
+8
68
84
64
82
26.3
57.9
-146
61
82
58
76
31.6
68.4
+96
53
74
51
68
31.6
78.9
-102
50
70
50
68
(NA)
50.0
-280
60
68
62
68
42.1
-211
72
82
72
78
89.5
-26
(NA)
83
(NA)
78
73.7
(NA)
86
(NA)
July
August
September..
October ....
November . . .
December. . .
lst quarter 1962.
Anticipated
Actual
D6l. New plant and
equipment expenditures
(16 industries)
1-quarter
interval
D48. Freight car loadings
(19 manufactured
commodity groups)
4-quarter
interval
88
1959
January
February. . . .
March
April
May
1
D36. New orders, durable manufactures
(400 companies)
4-quarber
interval
D35. Net sales,
manufactures
(800 companies)
4-quarter
int erval
88
Actual
Anticipated
50.0
40.6
68.8
84.4
81.2
87.5
75.0
84.4
65.6
71.9
75.0
84.4
71.9
71.9
56.2
71.9
34.4
43.8
28.1
37.5
46.9
53.1
56.2
62.5
65.6
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1
59.^
A.--(Dl) Average Workweek, Manufacturing (21 Industries)
I960
90 79 81 88 9? 5? ?1 17 24 2 1 196? *>? 36 12 12 48 60 60 17 17 17 19 0 26 52 88 qn 81 P-? 69 7 Q
4-4-4-
4. 4
4
4-
— —
o
o —
4.
4
4
4
4
4
Q
Q
4
4
4
4
4
-t-
4-
+
4-
4
Sep-Dec
Jul-Oct
A,,—
Iff.-n.
Apr-Jul
Jan-Apr
Feb-May
Dec-Mar
CO
Oct-Jan
*~3
o
Nov-Feb
»-3
8-
Aug-Nov
& Q
HI 1I
Jul-Oct
Sep-Dec
Oct-Jan
Aug-Nov
T..T
Jun-Sep
Apr-Jul
Feb-May
Mar-Jun
Jan-Apr
Oct-Jan
Nov-Feb
Dec-Mar
I
III-
19 Si
das-utif
ADI manufacturing industries
I
r\—A,
1959
Series components
Percent rising
sj>ans
Mar-Jun
• -month
Stnv.fou
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT
|
/ c 71 "74
4
4
_
4-
4
4-
4
4
4
4
44
4
+
4
O
44-
4
|
|
|
|
4 4
O
4
4
4
4
4
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
4-
Livnb«r ^d v<x>d product? . . . T T T . , ..........
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical.
Electrical machinery
o —
4-4-4-
4-
4 4 4
,
4
44
+
»
+
+
Instruments and related products
4+
+
4
o
+
4
44.
44
+
4.
444
4
4
—
o
+
44.
_l_
o
••
"•
4
4- o
o
4
4
44
44-
4
o
o
4-
-
-
+ +
4-
+
O
44.
o o
-
4-
4-
o
— —
o
— o
4-
- 4- 4— o
—
—
4-
+
o
4-
4-
4
„
4
0
+
+
4
4
4
+
°
O
4
—
4
4
4
+
O
O
+
+
4
•*•
4-
4
—
-
+
4
NONDURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
Food and kindred products .................
Tobacco mamif actures t T T . , T T T r . . T T T . T T f T T T t
Textile mill products
Apparel and allied products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Leather and leather products
- O 4
- - 4
4 4 4
4-4-44-4-44 - 4 - 4
4-
+
tn
4+
4
4
+
4,
Q
4-
4-
_i_
4
4.
4
Q
+
+
4
+
o
o
Q
4
4-
o
4
o 4O
—
o
4
—
o
44-
4-
+
4- 4-
4 +
4 4
Q
4Q
4
+
O
+
-
4- 4
4-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
+
o
— — 4-4-4-
o
— — 4-44-
4-4-4-
- - +
O 4- —
- 4 - 4 -
Q
+
O
4-
4- 4-
-
4
4
o
4
4
4
+
4
4
4
o
4
4
4-
4
4-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4-
+
—
__
44
4
+
Q
4-4-4-
4
+
+
4
4
4- = rising; o = -unchanged; - = falling.
NOTE: Series components are seasonally adjusted .before the direction of change is determined. Latest revised seasonally adjusted BLS figures are
used beginning with the Jan.-Apr. data. Prior data has been adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
O
Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
B.--(D6) Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods Industries (21 Industries)
3-month spans
I960
1959
1961
Series components
64 71100 90 76 43 57 31 33 43 57 67 52 57 29 48 43 50 29 52 38 52 26 36 43 33 90 76 81 62 67 76 67 62 71
Percent rising
1
All durable goods industries .
Iron and steel
Primary nonferrous metals
Other primary metals
Electrical generator apparatus...
Radio, television, and equipment.
Other electrical equipment
Motor vehicles
Motor vehicle parts
Aircraft
Other transportation equipment..
Stone, clay, and glass products.
Metalworking machinery
Special industry machinery
General industrial machinery....
Engines and turbines
Agricultural implements
Construction machinery
Office machines
Household appliances
Other machinery
Other fabricated metal products.
+ + + + + + - - - - - +
+ _ + _ . . - _ + _ _ _
+ + + + - - - - - - + +
+ + + + + -
4 - 4 - - - . - 4 - - . 4 - - 4 - - + + + + 4 - - - - - - - +
+ + + -- +
-- + + + -
+ + + - +
+ - + - o
+ + + + + + +
+ + + + + +
+ + + + - - -
+ +
+
+ + + + -
- +
- +
+ +
+
+
+
_ + + + +
+ - - + +
+ + - - +
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ + + +
- + + +
+ + - + ---
+ - + + +
+ +
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4+
+
_
+
+
- - - + + + - - - - 0 -
0
+
+
+
+
+ +
+
+ + +
+
+
- - - -
+
4 - 4 - 4 - - - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
+
+
- - - +
0 + --
+ -4-
+ + + + - - - - - + + 0 - - 4 - +
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
NOTE: Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
1
Includes durable industries not available separately.
+ - +
+ + + + +
+ _
+ + +
+ + + + + + - - +
+ + + - -
a
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
C.-(D19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks (24 Industries)
3 -month spans
Percent rising1..
1960
1959
Series components
1961
93 86 85 78 71 51 68 66 36 21 26 64 57 27 12 28 41 52 51 64 39 36 42 76 94 96 96 95 94 71 57 58 55 56 62
500 stock prices.
Mining and smelting
Coal, bituminous
Food composite
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturing).
Textile weavers
Paper
Publishing
Chemicals
Drugs
Oil composite
Building materials composite..
Steel
Metal fabricating
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment.
Electric household appliances.
Electronics
Automobiles
Radio and television broadcasters.
Telephone companies
Electric companies
Natural gas distributors
Retail stores composite
Life insurance
4 - - - - - + + + + + +
_
_
+ .
-
-
+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4- 4- 4- +
_ .
+ + + + + +
+
+
+
4-4-4-4-
+
4-4-4-4-4-
+
-
+
0
+
+
+
+ +
- +
+ +
+ - - + + + + + --.+ - - - - - - + - + + + 4-4-4-4-4+ + + + _ - - - - _ + - . - - 4 - - - - - - - - 4 - 4-4-4-4-4+ + -. + + + + + - _ -
g
O
C/5
4-4-4-4-
+ ---. + + + + + -4-
-
- 4- 4-
O
4- +
+
O
4- 4- 4- 4-
+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - 4 - - - - 4 4- 4- 4-
4 - 4 - 4 4 - - - - 4 - - - -
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
NOTE: Series components are not seasonally adjusted.
^•Based on 86 industries through January I960; on 85 industries, February I960 to November I960; and on 82 industries thereafter. 19 of the more
important industries are shown in this direct ion-of-change table. The food, oil, building materials, machinery, and retail composites represent an
additional 22 industries which are included in the percent rising.
l-»
O
Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
D.»(D23) Index of Industrial Materials Prices (13 Industrial Materials)
3 -month spans
Percent rising
m
*
—
4•
4-
4-.
4-
+
4-
4-
O
0)
53
0)
OJ
|
rH
Aug-Nov
O
o a « »-D fc< s «
fr
Jul-Oct
7
t{> fO fd ,Qf 7IH
-p
May-Aug
f
Sep-Dec
%
Jul-Oct
C
Aug-Nov
•-»
Jun-Sep
Q
r eo-way
S
_
_
O
0>
1 I
0>
co
-4-
—
+
4-
+
0
+
o
- - -
+
4-
+
+
+
+
4-
4-
-
-
-
o
O
4-
4-
+
-
+ 4- +
+ 4- +
4- + +
44-
+
-
+
-
+
+
O
+
0
i l l I
Bur la D (vd )
Ta 1 1 r»w ( 1 h ^
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
NOTE: Series components are not seasonally adjusted.
1
Data for December 14.
O
4-
0
4-
O
I
+
o
0
0
4-
+
0
O
o
+
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
+
4-
4-
4-
0
0
_
_
_
_
o
0
_
+
4.
-).-)-
+
+
+
+
I I
—
0
o
Tin (Ib.)
—
o
4-
Zinc (Ib.)
Wool tops (ib )
Hides (ib )
Rosin flOO Ib )
Rubber (Ib )
O
s -8 a ft & s H•;
54 54 46 58 73 62 54 58 54 58 54 58 46 54 54 46 46 50 46 38 58 35 42 15 31 46 77 73 81 58 50 54 69 69 42 46
-$nHu<5+r>Tfl 1 mat ArHal es
Lead s crap ( Ib )
Steel scrap (ton)
iu iis s *s •-
Mar-Jun
Sep-Dec
Aug-Nov
Jul-Oct
I
Jun-Sep
«
S S § -8 S
O 25 Q "3 Cn S
Apr-Jul
7 4 1f ^ 7
1961
1960
1959
Series components
4+
+
-
-
+ +
+
+
4-
+
+
-
+
+ + +
+
+ + -
o
0
o
o o - 4+
O
4-
O
0
4-
+
4-4-
o + +
+
+
0 0
- _
+
+
44-
+
+
4+
4-
4-
4-
+
4.
+
4.
+
+
+
+
+
+
0
C/J
Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
E.--(D5) Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, State Programs (26 Areas)
(Inverted)
3-month spans
*
1961
1960
1959
Series components
12
g i—| Cjp p< -P >
§ |fe|
|
-p
O
O
Percent rising
^ ...
>
O
SZ
O
0>
Q
C
<0
"3
X>
0>
Cn
O
7 •? 1 •? 9 ? •?
a h. & i 3 ^ &
S
<
S
»-3
87 81 89 83 87 64 40 26 23
"3
•< CO
IllllUfflfl Illlllllfll!
6 17 53 83 83 40 40 28 43 38 21 33 20 49 31 54 53 68 62 66 62 51 55 40 61 77
1
47 labor market areas
•fNANANA
-
- + -
-
- + -
NORTHEAST REGION
7 Boston
16 Buffalo*,
n
i
—
—
+
+ - - + + + + + _ - _
+
+ + +
+ + +
+ + + +
+
+ + + + + + - - - - + +"
Newark*
New York
21
4 Philadelphia*
8 Pittsburgh**
?3 Providence**
...
+ + + + + +
+
— +
— +
+
+
+
+
— +
+ + . + _ + . + _ _ - + + + + + + --4.4. + + _ _ _
+
+ +
+ + _
+ +
+ + --+
+
+ + +
+ + + + + + _
+
+
+
+
+ - + _ _ + _ - - + + -+ + +
+ +
+
+ + - + + + - - - +
- +
+ +
+
^
- +
+ +
D
•^
NORTH CENTRAL REGION
3 Chicago
18 Cincinnati
+ NANANA
10 Cleveland
?6 Columbus
S Detroit**
?*> Indianapolis
22 Kansas City*
I S Milwaukee
13 Minneapolis
9 St Louis
. ..
+ -
-
-
--
-
-
+ - - - - + + + + +
+
+
+ + + + + + — - _ - - + + +
+ + + +
+ + + +
+
+
+
+ + + + + + - _ + - - _ + + - - - + - - + +
-+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ +
+ + + +
_ _ _
+
_
4
-
+ +
+ +
+ - - - + + +
+ + + - - - + + + + - + - - - - + + -
+
+
+
+
_
_
_
+ +
+ +
- _
4+
_
-
- -
_
+
+ +
- . + + +
4 - _ ( +
+ +
-
+
+
+-
+ + - + _ +
-+- + - + _ + - + +
- - - .
+ +
+
-
+ + + +-H
— +
- + +
- +
SOUTH REGION
?o Atlanta
1? Baltimore
17 Dallas
+
+
+
4.
+
+
+
4
+
+
- - + - - + + +
+
-NANANA
-
-
-
-
+
-
-
+ +
Houston.
+
+
_ -
+
+
+ +
+ - -
o
+
+
— -
+
WEST REGION
2 Los Angeles*
?/i Portland*
6 San Francisco
IP Seattle
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ + + + - - - - + - + - - + + + - - - _ + + - « - +
- - - . + - - +
+ +
+ + + +
_
_
_
_
-
«
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ + +•(+ - + +
+ - - - * -
- = rising; o - unchanged; -*• = falling. (Because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises, it
is inverted to show a comparable activity pattern.) NA = not available.
NOTE: Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
^Denotes areas of substantial unemployment (6 percent or more) in November 1961 as designated by BES.
**Denotes areas of substantial (6 percent or more) and persistent unemployment in November 1961 as designated by BES.
^•The percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas. Directions of change are shown for only the largest 26.
S
O
Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
F.--(D41) Number of Employees in Nonagricultural Establishments (32 Industries)
1-month spans
I960
1959
1961
Series components
Percent rising
All nonagricultural establishments.
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries.
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products..
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products.
Petroleum and coal products...
Rubber products
Leather and leather products..
Mining.
Contract construction
Transportation
Communication
Other public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Finance, insurance, real estate.
Service
Federal government
State and local government
70 50 78 84 75 78 67 44 62 23 44 66 58 61 33 69 61 52 45 36 30 23 20 16
+ + + + + + +-. + - + +
44 22 53 65 85 87 57 55 37 65 48
-
+
O
O
O
-
-
-
-
O
-
Q
+
+
+
+
00
+
+
+
+
-
-
-
-
-
- -
+
+
+
+
+
+
-0
+ + + + + + -.--- + + + + - - - - - - - - -
- -
+
+
+
+
+
0
+
_ _
0
+ + - + + - + -
O -
+
O
O
O
-
-
+
- O
+
+
+
+
+ +
O +
--
+
+
+
+
+ + + + + + + - - - - +
+
+
+
00
+ + - - - - +
- - - -
+ _ + + + - - - + + - + + + - - - - - - + + --
- - 0
+
+
+
+
- -
0 - - -
+
^5
<-*
n
o + o o - 00
+ O
+ +
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ +
+ +
O+ 0
- - + 0 + + - + - - +
+ + +
-O+ + - - + -
-- + + + -
0 + 0 - + - + - + -
-
+
O +
- +
-
+
- +
+ - O - - - -
_--
+
+
O
-
-.-- + + + + - - + + +
-
+
- + 0 - -
+ + + --
+
.
+ + - +
+ + . +
0 +
--
-
-
+
O
+
- +
+
. - ( - _ + + + + -+-
+
+ +
+
- - 0 -
+
+
+
+
+ +
0 0 - O
+ _-*•- + - + _ +
__
- - -
+
+ + + + + -0
- + - + + + + - - + -
+
00-
-_
O
+ +
- + + + 4-- + - + +
+
-
-
+
- -
+
-
-
-
0
-
+ - * • • » - • * • + •*•
•*• = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
NOTE: Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined. Latest revised figures are used
beginning with Mar. -Apr. data.
March 1961, this table is based on 30 components.
o
en
Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISIKG: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
G.»(D47) Index of Industrial Production (25 Industries)
1-month spans
1960
1959
1961
s s«a
0
"3 fc S <
S -3
»-3
rH
ttf) P. -p
>
O
53
jj 0) o
O
0) § -8 $ !
1
S -8 5
|
7 f '?<?'?'? f t 1 "f
§ 3 sp £ IS S 8 S $ !3
o> 3 o
"^ "-a <: co O 2 0 «-a &< J 5
Q -9 fc
* I »H
l»f
•j
£ g 3 9
f 113
<: aq «T> »-3
fe
?•»
fX jd
S
r-j
P 2
Aug-Sep
Sep-Oct
Oct-Nov
Nov-Dec
S « A B. £ § -3 9
7 t f 1 T 7 7 1s
ft. t § ^
Sep-Oct
Oct-JJov
Nov-Dec
Aug-Sep
Series components
56 60 76 88 90 56 74 28 44 38 50 92 62 16 52 62 66 54 52 34 18 46 30 20 A6 32 58 86 84 84 76 66 22 76 82
Percent rising
All industrial production. ............
DURABLE GOODS
Ordnance and accessories
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products* ....... .
Primary metal products. ..
— — — + +
+++
+ + + + + - - -
+
-f
+ 0 + + + + - + - - + +
Machinery except electrical
+ + + + + + + 0 + - - + +
Electrical machinery,
Transportation enuipm^nt. *
0 0 + + + o + —
+ +
- + -f
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries....
NONDURABLE GOODS
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill Droducts
0
MINERALS
Coal.
Crude oil and natural gas
Mft^l nvi.ii jng
Stone and earth minerals
- +
+
O
^
—
-
—
- - + + •f — » — — —
+ - + +
o - - - -f +
+
+ + - + +
4-
0
+
-
-f
+ o + + + o
-1- - 0 + -f
_ . ++
- + - o - - + +
- + +
+ - + +
+
_
+
—
- +
p. 4-
0 - - — 0
O
0
O
-
+
+
-f - +
+ + + +
0
-
+
+
+
;: :
+++
+._
c*
^
o'
- o +
- o
+ -
4-
-1-
0
-
+ + +
•*•
• *
+
+
•*0
+ + +
- - - . + + +
0 + +
0 4- + + +
+
-h
+
+
+
- + +
+
+
0 +
+ + +
+
S
O
+ - - + o - + + + - +
- + - +
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Petroleum and coal products
Rubber products
Leather and leather products.
+
+ + - - + .
— -f- — — -f
- + +
+ - + o
+ -. + +
+ - + +
+ - -t
_ + -
+ + +
- + +
o - + - - - + + -
-
O
0
+ + +
+
_- _+ +
- + +
- - 0
-f 4- +
+ + + + o - + +
- + + 0 +
+ - - - - •*- + + + + - + +
0 + +
-f + o - + - 4- - - + - - +• + + - + - + +
+ +-
- - - + + - - + + + + +
+ + - + - +
+
- 4-
+ - -1-
+
-
-
-
+ -f +
+
-
4-
4-
-
-
- + + • _ + --*- _ + +
+ _ + - - + + o + + +
+ _ +
+
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
NOTE: Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
n>
CO
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
H.--(D54) Sales of Retail Stores (24 Types of Stores)
3-month spans
1961
I960
1959
Series components
Percent rising...
60 81 81 77 90 58 67 29 50 46 62 54 58 38 48 79 54 62 21 46 42 46 46 44 42 40 73 48 58 54 71 83 35 75 81
All retail sales.
Grocery stores
Other food stores
Eating places
Department stores....
Mail-order stores....
Variety stores
Other general stores.
Men's wear stores
Women's apparel stores
Family apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture stores
Appliance and radio stores.
Building material dealers..
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Motor vehicle dealers
Tire and battery dealers
Gasoline stations
Drug and proprietary stores...
Jewelry stores
Liquor stores
Other durable goods stores....
Other nondurable goods stores.
+ + + +
+ + + + ---
+
+ + ---
4 - + - + - 0 - + +
+
0
+ + + + + - _
+ - - -
+
_
+
4
+
+
+ + +
-- + + + - - - + + - + 4
+ - + +
+ + + + - - - - - - + _ _ - + - + + + + + 4 - - - - - - + + + + + 4- - - - _ + + + + 4 + - _ _ - + + + +
+
+ + +
+
-
- - o + + +
+
+ + +
+ + -
+ + +
4 + 0 - - + + + + + + +
-- + + + - - - 0 - -
_ + + + --+ + + 4 - - + + + - - - - -
- - - + + +-+ + + - - 4 - 4 - + - - - - - . - +
0
+
+
+
+ +
- +
+
-
+
-
- + + - +
- - + - _
+ 4- + . 4
- +
-
- - + + + +
4-
-
- + + +
+
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
NOTE: Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
+ - 4 4
+
- - +
+
+ +
+ - -
+ + ++ +
+ - . - - -
-U
ON
47
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of reference peak levels measured from reference peak dates to 18 months
after reference trough dates in 4 recent business cycles, for selected series.
9. Construction contracts, comm. and indus. .
Index
180
Reference trough
October, 1949
April, 1958
160
••••August, 1954 —February, 1961
140
1. Average workweek, manufacturing
Index
120
100
80
29. New pvt. housing units authorized
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
Months from reference troughs
+18
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 1), the figure for the reference peak is set
at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 9, 24, 29), the average of the reference peak month, the month
preceding the reference peak month, and the month following the reference peak month is set at "100".
For the 1949, 1954, and 1958 cycles a 3-term moving average is shown.
Latest data plotted: Series 9 — October; Series 1, 24, 29-November,
Cyclical Patterns
48
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels measured from reference peak dates fo 18 months
after reference trough dates fn 4 recent business cycles, for selected series.
Index
150
business incorporations
<
Reference trough
dates
Reference trough dates
-October, 1949—April, 1958
• •August, 1954
February, 1961
140
17. Price per unit of labor cost
130
120
110
100
90L
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
180
23. Industrial materials prices
170
160
150
140
IX
120
110
100
- 80
90
80L
-I 70
-1-6
+12
Months from reference troughs
+18
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of T or "2* (series 19, 23), the figure for the reference peak is
set at "100*. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 13, 17), the average of the reference peak month, the month
preceding the reference peak month, and the month following the reference peak month is set at "100".
Latest data plotted: Series 13 - October ; Series 17, 19, 23-November,
49
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels measured from reference peak dates to 18 months
after reference trough dates in 4 recent business cycles, for selected series.
Index
105
41. Employees in nonog. establishments
Reforonco trough dates
October, 1949**-April, 1958
* • • -August, 1954 —Fobruary, 1961
43. Unemployment rote (inverted)
100 -
55. Wholesale pricos (excl. form ond food)
- 105
105 -
- - 100
100 -
J
95 L
-6
0
+6
+12
Months from reference troughs
+18
-12
-6
0 + 6
+12
95
+18
Months from reference troughs
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance' (MCD) of V or "2* (series 41, 43, 55), tho figure for the reference
peak is set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 54), tho average of the reference peak month, the
month preceding the reference peak month, end tho month following the reference pook month is sot ot "100".
Latest data plotted: Series 41, 43, 54, 55-November.
50
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS»Con.
M^^MMMMMMMHHHOTMHMMMMMMMMM^MMMMH^HMIMMH^MM^^H^M^M^HMMMM
Percent of reference peak levels measured from reference peak dates to 18 months
after reference trough dates in 4 recent business cycles, for selected series.
47. Industrial production
Reference trough dates
October, 1949^—April, 1958
• • • «August, 1954
February, 1961
51. Bonk debits outside N.Y.C.
100 - 100
95 "-J 95
= 12
-6
0
-f6
+12
Months from reference troughs
-6
0
+6
+12
Months from reference troughs
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "V or "2* (series 47, 49, 52), the figure for the reference
peak is set at "100". For series with an MCD of '3" or more (series 51), the average of the reference peak month, the
month preceding the reference peak month, and.the month following the reference peak month is set at "100".
Latest data plotted: Series 47, 49, 51, 52-November.
51
Cyclical Patterns
CHART 5
COMPARISON OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERKS
Percent of specific trough levels measured 1 to 30 months after specific
trough dates in 4 recent expansions, for selected series.
9. Construction contracts, comm. and indus.2
Specific trough dates 1 identified
with reference trough dates in1949
1958——
1954....
1961
1. Average workweek, manufacturing
Index
105
- 120
-1 100
100
29. New pvt. housing units authorized
160
24. Value of new orders, moch. and equip.
150
200 r
140
180
160
130
140 -
120
120 -
110
100 «-
100
0
4
6
^12
*18
*24
*30
0
*6
+12
M8
*24
30
Months from specific troughs
Months from specific troughs
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of T or *2" (series 1), the figure for the specific trough is set
at "100" For series with an MCD of "3* or more (series 9, 24, 29), the average of the specific trough month, the month
preceding the specific trough month, and the month following the specific trough month is set at "100'.
1
See appendix table B for "specific "dates.
2
For the 1949 and 1958 cycles, a 3-term moving average is shown; the 1961 specific trough date has been selected
tentatively.
Latest data plotted: Series 9- October; Series 1, 24, 29- November.
52
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough leveis measured 1 to 30 months after specific
trough dates in 4 recent expansions, for selected series.
13. New business incorporations __
Index
Specific trough dates1 identified
with reference trough dates in1949
1958!
1954....
1961
170
Specific trough dates
160
17. Price per unit of labor cost
150
\l
140
V \ A.
130
120
110
100 L
19. Slock prices, 500 common stocks
23. Industrial materials prices
200
180
160
140
120
100
0
+6
+12
^18
-24
-30
0 + 6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
Months from specific troughs
For series with a 'months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of T or "? (series 19, 23), ihe figure for the specific trough
Is set at MOO*. For series witii an MCD of "3" or more (series 15, 17), the average of the specific trough month, the
month preceding the speci fie trough month, and the month following ihe specific trough month is set at * 100'.
l
$ee appendix table B for •specific* dates.
Latest data plotted: Series 13-October; Series 17, 19, 23-Novemher.
53
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels measured 1 to 30 months after specific
trough dates in 4 recent expansions, for selected series.
Index
41. Employ*** in nonog. establishments
115
Specific trough dates x identified
with reference trough dotes in-1949
1958 ——
1954*...
1961——
-Specific trough dates
110
43. Unemployment rote (inverted)
Index
280
260
240
220
200
180
105
If*'
160
Specific trough levels
140
100
120
47. industrioi production
J
100
IiiIi
49. GNPc current dollars
135 -
130 -
135
125 -
130
125
120
120
115
115
110
110
105
105
100
100
0
46
412
+18
424
430
Months from specific troughs
months from specific troughs
For series with a "teen** for eyclied de»lmweef>(MCD) of "V or "2" (series 41r 43r 47 and 49) the ftgvr* for tfce
specific trough Is set at "100".
%ee appendix table B for "specific" dates.
2
No specific trough has been selected. Data for current expansion is arbitrarily selected to begin in May 1961.
Latest data plotted: November.
Cyclical Patterns
54
CHART 5
I COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-GUI.
^•^••^••••••••^•^•••••••••••^^••^•••^•••••••M^MnMMM^MMMMI^MBa^^MBMB^MMMMMi^MMMMHI^MMMHBBM
Percent of specific trough levels measured 1 to 30 months after specific
trough dates in 4 recent expansions, for selected series.
51. Bank debits outside N.Y.CSpecific trough dates1 identified
with reference trough dates iit-1949
195
1954 o . . .
1961-
Index
135
130
54. Sales of retail stores
125
Inde,K
115
r-
,
-<• Specific trough dates
/
-
110
„,
*
120
** ' A~*
i JV*,
115
/ A/fi1 ;' ' V
/ •/ .;v' ', I
—
'
K
-
105
/*
... i \ /
'•
•
»'
!/
1 r ••
1' 1i *
'i
;i
$•''*§
—
AI I/
A: x Jv/ :
-
IAA
IUU
* :
1i V % *
JsWr*
ffl/^
^
110
105
Specific
trough
100
lcv
«k
1
53. Labor Income, Industrial
150
i i 1 i i 1 i i L i i 1 i i 1 i i 1 i i 1 ii1 i i I i i
145
52. Personal income
130r
140
135
125
130
120
125
120
115
115
110
110
105
105
-I 100
100 L
iI iiIi
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
Months from specific troughs
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 52, 53), the figure for the specific
trough is set at "TOO". For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 51, 54), the average of the specific trough
month, the month preceding the specific trough month, and the month following the specific trough month is set at "100".
*See appendix table B for "specific" dates.
on tentative specific trough date for 1961 expansion.
Cyclical Patterns
55
Table 7-PERCENT OF REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS, FOR SELECTED SERIES
For series with a. "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 55, 62, 64,
and 66), the figure for the reference peak month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or-more (series
2
» 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 17, 24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the reference peak month, the month immediately preceding the reference peak month, and the month immediately following the reference peak month is used as the base.
The base for quarterly series 49 and 67 is the reference peak quarter. See also "MCD" footnote to appendix table C.
Selected series
Months
after
reference
trough1
Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in —
July
1921
July
1924
Nov.
1927
Mar.
1933
June
1938
Oct.
1949
Aug.
1954
Apr.
1958
Feb.
1961
9
7
7
NA
48.7
12.5
95. 8
40.0
69.0
99.6
75.3
83.8
70.1
50.0
43.3
93.2
98.0
87.0
102.8
114.6
150.0
100.5
91.8
93.3
100.5
105.4
105.6
101.2
94.7
115.0
9
188.3
108.3
99.5
37.7
80.3
152.8
121.9
105.8
111.9
9
136.9
123.6
106.5
23.4
141.6
181.9
133.1
133.5
103.5
8
8
35.2
74.6
88.5
91.5
114.5
107.9
15.8
75.3
65.8
85.8
134.3
116.3
112.3
134.6
85.3
133.4
88.1
110.4
9
9
9
9
11.1
NA
93.0
48.9
120.9
NA
118.6
97.9
58.6 199.5
NA
NA
151.9
33.1
93.4 65.1
79.3
NA
76.2
78.1
129.8
108.1
113.7
93.3
106.4
101.3
154.8
106.2
70.8
100.0
114.7
96.0
69.8
100.7
128.7
95.1
9
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
117.5
104.0
114.5
9
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
129.8
110.9
9
9
9
6
9
9
9
73.9
NA
81.4
NA
78.7
NA
96.8
93.8
NA
97.9
107.5
105.7
106.2
102.9
98.4
NA
101.9
99.7
1U.4
105. A
100.0
77.4
0.2
61.7
56.1
42.3
58.1
65.2
94.1
65.3
84.4
95.7
88.4
94.6
93.0
100.7
73.5
113.2
103.2
112.2
105.6
117.9
100.1
62.6
102.1
104.2
113.5
106.2
107.4
98.8
69.7
99.0
102.7
106.5
104.6
10376
99.8
83.4
104.0
103.8
109.4
106.3
103.7
9
62.6
94.9
93.5
84.4
92.9
99.5
100.6
100.8
98.9
9
8
8
70.0
NA
NA
94. ANA
NA
92.4
NA
NA
83.3
65.3
50.8
91.8
100.0
88.8
93.9
95.7 150.9
99.8
95.0
114.1
101.1
91.0
102.1
99.0
99.7
102.7
6
96.1
88.2
103.0
76.7
94-9 101.5
94.9
93.2
93.3
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, manufacturing
3 . Layoff rate, manufacturing
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
7. New private permanent nonfarm dwelling units
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space2.
13. Number of new business incorporations
14« Current liabilities of business failures
17. Price per unit of labor cost index
23. Index of industrial materials prices
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries
29. New private housing units authorized by
local building permits
NBER ROUGHLY CONINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
47. Index of industrial production.
49. Gross national product in current dollars(Q).
51. Bank debits outside NYC 343 centers
54. Sales of retail stores
55* Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than farm products and foods
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
62. Wage and salary cost per unit of output,
total manufacturing
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities(Q)
NA Not available.
1
Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
'"Changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Cyclical Patterns
56
Table 8-PERCENT OF "SPECIFIC" PEAK LEVELS AND PERCENT CHANGE FROM "SPECIFIC" TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT
DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE "SPECIFIC" TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS, FOR SELECTED SERIES
Selected series
Months
after
"specific"
trough1
19. Tnrie-jc of stonk pricfiSj ^00 orrnimnn stnnks
July
1924
Nov.
1927
Mar.
1933
June
1938
Oct.
1949
Aug.
1954
Apr.
1958
Feb.
1961
Percent of "specific" peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in year shown2
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, manufacturing
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space3.
13 • Number of new business incorporations
July
1923
11
NA
94.4
98.6
86.4
90.7
NSC
98.8
98.5
99.8
9
8
8
13
11
28.5
74.5
NA
95.3
51.4
91.7
88.3
NA
102.2
90.0
99.1
96.0
NA
NSC
72.9
17.9
57.9
NA
35.9
59.3
62.2
89.8
NA
62.0
71.7
73.2
65.0
96.5
103.3
76.2
NSC
NSC
88.9
122.9
58.3
78.3
104.0
99.3
114.0
88.8
88.6
103.3
99.1
119.0
93.4
13
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
77.0
102.1
113.8
11
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
84.3
86.5
9
9
6
11
9
9
10
73.9
76.7
NA
82.9
NA
NA
90.9
93.3
97.9
NSC
106.7
104.1
NA
100.0
99.0
101.9
NSC
NSC
99.6
NA
NSC
77.4
51.7
56.1
46.0
58.1
48.6
67.8
93.7
84.4
91.1
84.2
92.4
84.4
92.4
100.6
111.4
96.7
111.4
104.7
104.1
NSC
100.1
94.5
100.5
NSC
102.1
102.3
100.3
98.7
98.4
99.7
105.8
103.8
99.3
103.0
99.6
102.8
103.8
110.0
105.6
102.7
104.2
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin29. Index of new private housing units
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
47. Index of industrial production
49. Gross national product in current dollars(Q).
51. Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers
52 . Personal income
54 « Sales of retail stores
Percent change from "specific" trough prior to reference
expansion beginning in year shown2
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space3.
13. Number of new business incorporations
17. Price per unit of labor cost index
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
23. Index of industrial materials prices
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local building permits.
11
+9.4
9
8
8
13
11
+38.0
+6.7
NA
+40.5
+26.2
13
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
11
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
9
9
6
11
9
9
10
+7.2
+13.8
+11.7
+9.0
+4.0
NA
+3.4
+8.1
+17.5
NSC
+11.4
+8.0
NA
+2.9
+4.5
+10.4
NSC
NSC
+2.2
NA
NSC
+4.2
+3.0
+31.6
+46.0 +28.3 +84.8
+18.1
+4.6
+4.8
NA
NA
m
NSC H35.4
+20.0
+22.0 +2.1 +59.3
+8.8
+2.8
+3.0
+4.7
+5.5
-5.0
NSC +23.3
+36.9 +70.1
NSC +14.3
+16.0
+12.5 '+10.0
NA +2.2 +3.4
+6.4
+2.8
+13.5 +24.4 +38.3 +37.9 +32.3
+2.2
+15.9 +13.1 +11.8 +12.2
+71.4
NA
+28.8 +37.7 +22.2
NA
+36.5
+16.0
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural
establishments
47. Index of industrial production
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).
51. Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers
52 . Personal income
53 . Labor income
54. Sales of retail stores
+5.0
+6.0
+3.6
+13.1
+5.2
+10.7 +25.6 +23.8
+0.2
+8.7
+3.3
+11.4
NSC
+20.7
+2.4 +17.0
+18.1
+5.8 +10.4
+3.4
+36.5 +15.4 +19.1 +10.8
+20.0 +12.5
NSC
+3.8
+3.0
+1.9
+15.2 +11.8
+5.0
+3.3
+9.6
+9.4
+5.0 +6.4
+8.0
+9.0
+7.6
+8.1
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.
^•Based on period from most recent "specific" trough of each series to the latest month for which data are available.
The number is the same for each expansion. "Specific" trough and peak dates are shown in appendix table B.
.2tFor series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 19, 23, 41, 47, 52, and 53), the
figure for the "specific" peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 9, 13,
17, 24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the "specific" peak (trough) month,the month immediately preceding the "specific"
peak (trough) month, and the month immediately following the "specific" peak (trough) month is used as the base.
The
base for quarterly series 49 is the "specific" peak (trough) quarter. See also "MCD" footnote to appendix table C.
^Changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series except for 1961.
APPENDIX
Table A.-BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE DATES AND DURATION OF EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS
IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Business cycle
reference dates
Contraction
Expansion
(trough
(trough to
from prepeak)
vious peak)
Cycle
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
Trough
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 186?
December 1870
March 1879
June 1857
October I860...
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873...
March 1882
XXX
18
8
J2
18
65
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893...
December 1895..
June 1899
September 1902.
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
30
22
XXX
XXX
^
6
18
34
36
48
30
3$.
36
99
40
it
50
52
101
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
May 1907
January 1910...
January 1913...
August 1918....
January 1920...
May 1923
23
13
24
23
2
18
33
19
12
M
10
22
44
46
43
35
.51
28
56
32
36
62
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926...
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945..
November 1948..
July 1953
13
43
13
.£
11
27
21
50
M
37
36
40
64
63
M
48
41
34
93
32.
45
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
July 1957
May I960
35
25
.51
44
34
48
34
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
2
54
3
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
5
48
6
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961...
10 cycles, 1919-1961
4 cycles, 1945-1961
46
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961
41
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II,
and Korean War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime
expansions.
4
^25 cycles, 1857-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
2
5
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
7 cycles', 1920-1960.
3
6
3 cycles, 1948-1960
2 cycles, 1948-1960.
Source:
National Bureau of Economic Research.
57
Appendix
58
Table B.--"SPECIFIC" TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
"Specific" trough and peak dates are the actual dates that each series reaches its trough and peak. "Reference" dates
are those dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for selected
leading and coincident series, the specific dates related to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
"Specific" trough dates for reference expansions beginning in —
Selected series
Feb.
1961
April
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
March
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1921
July
1924
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, manufacturing. . . Dec.
. '60 Apr. '58
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs... Jan.^l1 Jun.'58
13. Number of new business incorporations
Feb.'6l Nov. '57
17. Price per unit of labor cost index. Mar. '61 Apr. '58
19. Index of stock prices, $00 stocks.. Oct. '60 Dec. '57
23 . Index of industrial mat . prices .... Dec. '60 Apr. '58
24. Value of mfrs.1 new orders, machinery and equipment industries . .Oct . ' 60Feb. '58
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits. Dec. '60 Feb. '58
Apr. '54 Apr. '49 Jan . ' 38Jul. '32 Apr. '28 Jul. '24 Feb. '21
NSC
Aug. '49 Sep. '38 Oct. '32 Sep. '27 Jul. '24 Mar. '21
NSC
Dec. '53
Sep. '53
Feb. '54
Feb. '49
May '49
Jun. '49
Jun. '49
Sep. '39
NA
Apr. '38
Jun. '38
Jan . ' 54Apr. '49 NA
NA
NA
Dec. '34
NA
Jun. '32
Jul. '32
Dec. '26
NA
NSC
Aug. '28
Jun. '24 Jan. '21
NA
NA
Oct. '23 Aug. '21
Jun . ' 24Jul. '21
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Jun. '38
Jun. '38
May '38
2ndQ '38
May '38
May '38
Mar. '33
May '33
Jul. '32
IstQ '33
Apr. '33
Mar. '33
Jan. '28
NA
Nov. '27
NSC
NSC
4thQ '26
Jul. '24 Jul. '21
NA
NA
Jul. '24 Apr. '21
NSC
4thQ '21
Jun . ' 24Jul. '21
2ndQ '24 2ndQ '21
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments
43 . Unemployment rate (inverted)
47. Index of industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
51 . Bank debits outside NYC
$2 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, manufac-
Feb. '61
May '611
Feb. '61
IstQ '61
Dec.^O1
Feb. '61
54« Sales of retail stores
Feb. '61 Apr. '58 Aug . ' 54Oct. '49 Jun. '38 Mar. '33 NA
Jan. '61 Mar. '58 Jan. '54 NSC
May '38 Mar. '33 NSC
Apr. '58
Aug. '58
Apr. '58
IstQ '58
Feb. '58
Feb. '58
Aug. '54 Oct. '49
Sep . ' 54Oct. '49
Mar. '54 Oct. '49
2ndQ '54 2ndQ '49
NSC
Aug. '49
Mar. '54 Oct. '49
NA
NA
Oct . ' 24Sep. '21
"Specific" peak dates for reference contractions beginning in —
Selected series
May
I960
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, manufacturing.... May '59
9. Construction contracts awarded for
1
commercial and industrial bldgs . . Apr.^9
.
13. Number of new business incorporations
May '59
17. Price per unit of labor cost index. May '59
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks.. Jul.'59
23 . Index of industrial mat . prices .... Nov. '59
24. Value of mfrs.1 new orders, machinery and equipment industries.. Dec. '59
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits. Nov. '58
July
1957
July
1953
Nov.
1948
Nov. '55 Apr. '53 NSC
Mar. '56 NSC
May
1937
Aug.
1929
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan.
1920
Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22 NA
Mar. '46 Jul. '37 Jan. '29 Sep. '25 Aug. '22 Dec. '19
Feb. '56 NSC
Jul. '46 Dec. '36
Oct. '55 Jan . ' 51Jun. '48 NA
Jul . ' 56 Jan. '53 Jun . ' 48Feb. '37
Dec. '55 Feb. '51 Jan . ' 48Mar. '37
Jan. '29
NA
Sep. '29
Mar. '29
Oct. '25
NA
NSC
Nov. '25
Apr. '23 Dec . ' 19
NA
NA
Mar . ' 23 Jul . ' 19
Apr.
'20
Mar. '23
Nov. '56 Feb. '51 NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Aug. '29
NA
Jul. '29
3rdQ '29
Aug. '29
Aug. '29
Jan. '26
NA
Mar. '27
NSC
NSC
2ndQ '26
Jun. '23
NA
May '23
NSC
May '23
IstQ '24
Jan. '20
NA
Feb. '20
NA
Jul. '20
NA
Feb. '55 NA
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments
Apr. '60 Mar. '57
Feb. '60 Mar. '57
47. Index of industrial production
Jan . ' 60Feb. '57
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
2ndQ '60 3rdQ '57
51 . Bank debits outside NYC
Aug. '601 Aug. '57
52 . Personal income
Oct. '60 Aug. '57
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing and construction
May '60 Jun.'57
54. Sales of retail stores
Apr. '60 Jul. '57
NA Not available.
NSC
•'•Tentative turning date.
May '53 Jul. '48 Jul. '37May '53 Jan. '48 Jul. '37
Jul. '53 Jul. '48 May '37
2ndQ '53 4thQ '48 3rdQ '37
NSC
Aug. '48 Mar. '37
Oct . ' 53Sep . ' 48Jun. '37
Jul. '53 Sep. '48 May '37 Sep. '29 NA
Sep. '37 Sep. '29 NSC
Jul. '53 NSC
No specific cycle related to reference dates.
NA
NA
Feb. '24 Jul. '20
Appendix
59
Table C--AVERAGE MONTHLY PERCENTAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR 55 MONTHLY BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
i/c
Monthly series
CI
I
C
i/c
for
MCD
span
MCD
Average duration of run
CI
I
C
MCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, manufacturing
30. Nonagri cultural placements, all
industries
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing*
4. Number of persons on temporary
1.55
6.03
.34
5.72
.22
2.44
1.55
2.34
2
3
.81
.85
2.81
2.37
1.89
1.67
9.31
8.77
4.49
5.88
3.41
13.59
3.14 '
11.90
1.35
5.88
2.33
2.02
3
3
.55
.74
1.86
2.37
1.49
1.64
8.67
7.45
4.53
4.90
19.43
17.91
4.88
3.67
5
.81
1.66
1.49
7.10
3.37
8.67
7.86
2.96
2.66
3
.89
1.84
1.48
7.82
3.87
5.58
5.00
2.00
2.50
3
.75
1.94
1.48
10.64
3.34
6.07
5.55
2.19
2.53
3
.73
1.68
1.47
12.82
3.56
11.94
2.75
4.34
5
.80
1.62
1.49
8.28
3.45
5.94
2.19
2.71
3
.79
1.59
1.37
8.56
3.55
7.12
2.36
3.02
4
.71
1.82
1.69
10.14
5.23
5. Initial claims for unemployment
6. Value of manufacturers1 new orders,
durable goods industries
24. Value of manufacturers1 new orders,
machinery and equipment industries.
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs .... 12.37
10 o Contracts and orders for plant and
equipment
6.37
27. Buying policy— production materials,
percent reporting commitments
7.56
7. New private permanent nonfarm
4.09
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits.. 3.90
12. Net change in the business population, operating businesses
12.15
13. Number of new business incorporations
3.04
2.01
1.69
3
.67
2.29
1.67
11.46
4.46
3.44
1.67
2.06
3
.60
1.93
1.53
12.43
3.70
15.46
7.29
2.12
3
.84
2.71
1.80
10.64
4.08
2.57
1.30
1.98
3
.65
2.19
1.69
9.31
3.50
16.05
2.81
5.71
6
(x)
1.57
1.42
5.32
2.22
17.36
3.26
5.33
6
C1)
1.54
1.39
6.21
2.82
.74
1.90
.44
1.49
1.68
1.28
3
2
.73
.79
2.52
2.40
2.12
1.73
8.94
13.55
4.68
3.36
5.53
2.76
2.00
3
.66
1.90
1.61
11.55
4.63
8.12
1.39
7.20
1.52
1.13
.91
2
1
.77
.91
3.18
2.61
2.01
1.84
9.94
11.46
3.59
2.61
.40
.23
.29
.79
1
.79
3.10
1.86
12.42
3.10
.40
4.91
.32
3.52
.24
2.85
1.33
1.24
2
2
.69
.73
2.04
2.44
1.'62
1.57
13.55
7.84
4.00
3.15
5.02
3.61
2.84
1.27
2
.75
2.53
1.64
7.84
3.29
5.63
2.80
4.12
.68
1
.68
3.47
2.44
8.28
3.47
3.28
2.10
2.26
.93
1
.93
2.30
1.40
8.13
2.30
1.32
1.56
.69
.82
1.42
.43
.88
.70
.54
.93
2.03
.80
1
3
1
.93
.58
.80
3.92
1.82
3.39
2.92
1.55
1.69
9.31
10.64
21.29
3.92
4.32
3.39
1.12
1.58
.69
1.43
.84
.56
.82
2.55
1
4
.82
.70
3.63
1.84
1.80
1.67
13.55
8.77
3.63
3.56
.35
.13
.31
.42
1
.42
5.32
2.26
11.46
5.32
14. Current liabilities of business
16.32
failures
15. Number of business failures with
liabilities of $100,000 and over... 17.30
17. Price per unit of labor cost index..
.93
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks... 2.58
26. Buying policy— production materials,
percent reporting commitments
60 days or longer
6.17
32. Vendor performance, percent report11.30
ing slower deliveries
23. Index of industrial materials prices. 2.15
3.39
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricul42. Total nonagricultural employment,
44. Number of unemployed persons
14 years old and over
45. Average weekly insured unemploy46. Index of help-wanted advertising
51. Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers.
52. Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, manufac54* Sales of retail stores
55. Index of wholesale prices, all
commodities other than farm
products and foods
See footnote at end of table.
60
Appendix
Table C-AVERAGE MONTHLY PERCENTAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR 55 MONTHLY BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Con.
i/c
Monthly series
CI
I
C
i/5
for
MCD
span
MCD
Average duration of run
CI
I
C
MCD
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
62. Index of wage and salary cost per
unit of output, total mfg
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing indus....
65. Book value of manufacturers1 inventories of finished goods, all
manufacturing industries
66. Consumer installment debt, end of mo.
.84
.64
.43
1.49
2
.88
2.53
1.77
13.55
3.29
.88
.27
.40
.34
1
.34
7.84
2.16
13.55
7.84
.99
1.30
.49
.32
.84
1.23
.58
.26
1
1
.58
.26
6.48
11.46
2.61
1.94
13.55
21.29
6.48
11.46
.35
7.17
7.49
.21
6.91
7.23
.27
1.31
1.46
.78
5.27
4.95
1
5
5
.78
.92
.96
4.06
1.47
1.70
1.97
1.39
1.52
15.33
7.59
5.96
4.06
2.30
2.55
3.72
3.52
3.39
3.02
1.52
1.32
2.23
2.29
3
3
.69
.79
1.89
1.71
1.51
1.57
7.84
6.21
4.08
3.06
8.29
8.06
2.22
3.63
4
.96
1.67
1.47
7.26
2.93
1
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
82. Federal payments to the public
83. Federal receipts from the public....
86. Exports, excluding military aid
8?. General imports, total
94. Index of construction contracts,
90. Defense Department obligations,
91. Defense Department obligations,
total
92. Military prime contract awards to
40.72
38.97
9.18
4.25
6
C )
1.41
1.46
8.09
2.40
15.88
15.31
3.02
5.07
5
.98
1.46
1.46
8.09
2.58
1
29.75
29.94
6.14
4.88
6
C )
1.51
1.44
5.75
2.68
1.32
1.29
.98
1.32
1.76
1.79
1.70
1.87
1.03
1.29
.88
.82
1.35
1.63
1.61
1.09
.68
.49
.52
.88
1.15
.65
.81
1.27
1.51
2.63
1.69
.93
1.17
2.51
1.99
.86
2
3
2
1
2
3
3
1
.82
.87
.98
.93
.65
.80
.63
.86
2.91
2.41
3.44
3.92
3.04
2.20
2.27
5.13
1.95
1.93
2.27
2.92
2.01
1.70
1.67
2.31
17.11
15.40
15.50
9.31
31.00
17.00
22.00
16.86
5.28
6.91
6.13
3.92
6.16
5.09
9.50
5.13
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
121. OECD countries, index of industrial production
122. United Kingdom, indus. prod, index.
123. Canada, industrial production index
47. United States, indus. prod, index..
125. West Germany, indus. prod, index...
126. France, industrial 'production index
127. Italy, industrial production index.
128. Japan, industrial production index.
*Not computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
The following are brief definitions of the measures shown in this table. More complete explanations appear in
Business Cycle Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., volume 1, chapter 17,
"Electronic Computers and Business Indicators" by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University Press: 1961).
"CI" is the average month-to-month percentage change, without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, which is obtained by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally
adjusted series.
"~C" is the same for the cyclical component which is a smooth, flexible moving average.
"MCD" represents months for cyclical dominance. The average (without regard to sign) percentage changes in the
irregular component and cyclical component are computed for 1-month spans (January-February, February-March, etc.), 2-month
spans (January-March, February-April, etc.), up to 5-month spans. MCD is the shortest span for which the average change
(without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average change (without regard to sign) in the
irregular component. Since changes are not computed for spans greater than 5 months, all series with an MCD greater
than "5" are shown as "6". MCD is small for smooth series and large for erratic series.
"T/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted
series. It is shown above for 1-month spans and for spans of the period of MCD. When MCD is "6", no I/C ratio is shown
for the MCD period.
"Average duration of run" is a measure of smoothness, and is equal to the average number of consecutive monthly
changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2 months, it is assumed
that the "no change" is a change in the same direction as the preceding change. The average duration of run is shown
for the seasonally adjusted series CI, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD moving average. The MCD
moving average is a moving average (with the number of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally adjusted series.
Appendix
61
Table D.-AVERAGE QUARTERLY PERCENTAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR 12 QUARTERLY BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
1/5
Quarterly series
CI
I
C
i/5
for
QCD
span
QCD
Average duration of run
CI
I
C
QCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11, Newly approved capital appropriations, 602 manufacturing corp
16, Corporate profits after taxes
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of
sales, all manufacturing corp
7.66
7.00
4.54
7.59
5.35
.92
.85
1
1
.92
.85
2.82
2.83
1.48
1.65
5.17
3.64
2.82
2.83
7.73
5.06
5.01
1.01
2
.51
2.83
1.42
5.67
3.85
1.44
.65
1.13
.58
1
.58
3.19
1.50
5.10
3.19
1.88
1.60
.69
.82
1.59
1.45
.43
.57
1
1
.43
.57
4.25
4.64
1.42
1.46
6.38
7.29
4.25
4.64
3.61
1.49
2.9/4
.51
1
.51
4.64
1.55
5.67
4.64
1.02
.60
.84
.71
1
.71
2.68
1.31
7.29
2.68
2.96
1.94
2.37
.82
1
.82
2.68
1.55
6.38
2.68J
11.15
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
50. Gross national product in 1954 dols..
49. Gross national product in current
57. Final purchases (series 49 minus 21).
NBQl LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant
and equipment, total
63. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total gross national product...
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans , 19 cities
The measures shown in this table are similar to the measures described for table C, except that they are computed
from quarterly data:
"CI", "T", and "(J" are the average quarter-to-quarter percentage changes (without regard to sign) in the seasonally
adjusted series, the irregular component, and the cyclical component.
"QCD" represents quarters for cyclical dominance. It is the shortest span (in quarters) for which the average change
(without regard to sign) in cyclical component is larger than the irregular average (without regard to sign) in component.
"I/C" is shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
"Average duration of run" is the average number of consecutive quarterly changes in the same direction.
Appendix
62
Table E.--SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FACTORS, NOVEMBER 1960 TO DECEMBER 1961, FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES ADJUSTED BY
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS OR NBER
Series
Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May
I960 I960 1961 1961 1961 1961 1961
June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
1961 1961 1961 1961 1961 1961 1961
4. Number of persons on temporary
104.0 100.8 112.1 123.0 102.0 99.3 88.8 86.1 106.6 112.3 88.0 78.7 104.0 100.8
layoff all industries
5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs. 99.1 121.3 146.4 107.8 98.0 105.1 89.4 83.1 106.7 87.6 76.4 84.9 101.5 124.2
13. Number of new business incor88
83
92
88 102 113
94
93
95
95 114 104 110 106
14. Current liabilities of busi95
93
107
110
108
114
104
96
94
100
89
90
95
93
95
88
112
114
118
116
97
104
84
102
88
83
95
88
15. Number of business failures
with liabilities of $100,000
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufactur-
98.8
100.8
98.8
101.5
101.5
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
99.8 100.4 100.6 100.1
99.2 99.6
99.6
99.7
99.8 100.7 101.0 99.5
90.5
85.1
82.4 77.0 88.0 101.7 108.1 111.6 106.7 114.0 123.7 112.2
99.7
99.7
30. Nonagri cultural placements, all
90.3 85.2
45. Average weekly insured unemploy-i
86.4 108.9 131.6 131.3 124.8 109.4 96.0 86.8
87.7 82.0 76.1 77.7 86.8 109.4
55. Index of wholesale prices, all
commodities other than farm
100.2
66. Consumer install, debt, end of mo. 100.2
100.1
82. Federal payments to the public.. 100.0
83. Federal receipts from public.... 95.3
99.7
100.5
100.2
101.1
52.4
100.0
100.8
100.0
106.8
104.9
123.8 73.0 89.2 150.8 77.7 79.2 206.3 56.4
56.3
100.3
101.5
99.9
101.8
100.6
100.3
100.1
99.9
90.7
73.3
100.2
98.9
99.9
101.1
113.9
100.1
98.7
100.0
91.2
144.2
100.0
98.9
100.0
99.6
74.9
99.7
99.3
100.0
99.7
109.6
99.8
100.1
100.3
107.0
159.6
100.0
100.7
100.1
99.8
121.7
100.0
100.4
100.2
101.3
48.7
100.2
100.2
100.1
100.6
95.9
100.3
101.5
99.9
101.4
101.4
90. Defense Department obligations —
98.2
91. Defense Department obligations —
total
94.1
92. Military prime contract awards
76.9
125. West Germany, index of
109.7
128. Japan, index of industrial
97.9
97.4 93.7
99.4 121.0
79.4 101.4 100.4
94.6 105.8
100.3 70.7 86.1 118.3 80.1 77.8 224.3 89.1 79.1 105.8 90.5
76.9 100.3
106.9 88.3 88.8 117.9 95.7
102.1 95.2
87.8 156.5
83.6
96.7 99.4 100.7 102.2 102.4 93.6
93.1 102.4 103.4 109.8 102.1
102.5 93.7 102.4 107.8 100.0 99.8 100.0 99.7 97.8 99.8 99.6 97.9 102.5
NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made
by the Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the
source agency will be substituted whenever they are published.
1
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
2
The seasonal factors are applied to the unfilled orders series; then the change in unfilled orders is computed.
COMPLETE TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order.
"M" indicates monthly series and "Qw indicates quarterly series. The general classification of series follows the approach of
the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk (*) were included in the 1960 NBER list of 26
indicators.
29 NBER LEADING INDICATORS
*1. Average workweek, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
*3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries
(M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M).--Department of Labor", Bureau of Employment
Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census and Office of Business Economics
*7. New private permanent nonfarm dwelling units started
(M).— Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space (M).--F. W. Dodge Corporation
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment bv
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc.
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602 manufacturing
corporations (Q).--National Industrial Conference Board
*12. Net change In the business population, operating businesses (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).--Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by National Bureau
of Economic Research, Inc.
*14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).--Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
15. Number of business failures with liabilities of $100,000
and over (M).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
17. Price per unit of labor cost index (ratio of wholesale
prices of manufactured goods index to wage and salary
cost per unit of output index) (M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q).--Federal Trade Commission and
Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—Standard
and Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories, purchased material (M).--Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
*21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after
valuation adjustment (GNP Component) (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Office ot Business Economics
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M).--Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census and Office of Business Economics
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries (M).—Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
26. Buying policy—production materials, percent reporting
commitments 60 days or longer (M).—National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
27. Buying policy—capital expenditures, percent reporting
commitments 6 months or longer (M).—National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local
building permits (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M).—Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries
(M).—Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
15 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
*41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments
(M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M).—
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43. Unemployment rate (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
44. Number of unemployed persons 14 years old and over
(M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
45. Average weekly insured unemployment, State programs
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).—National Industrial Conference Board
*47. Index of industrial production (M).—Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System
*49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).—Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q).--Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*51. Bank debits outside New York City, 343 centers (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*52. Personal income (M).--Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction
(M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*54. Sales of retail stores (M).—Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
*55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities, other than
farm products and foods (M).—Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
57. Final purchases (series 49 minus series 21) ((^.--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Continued on reverse
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
PAYMENT OF POSTAGE, f3OO
(GPO)
WASHINGTON, D. C.
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
COMPLETE TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
89.
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics, and the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of wage and salary cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing (ratio of index of wage and salary disbursements in manufacturing to index of
industrial
production, manufacturing) (M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
63. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total gross national
product (ratio of compensation of employees to GNP
in 1954 dollars) (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing industries (M).--Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished
goods, all manufacturing industries (M).--Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
90.
(Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*66. Consumer installment debt, end of month (M).--Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*67.
Bank rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
no seasonal adjustment
(Q).--
System;
14 OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
81. Index of consumer prices (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
82. Federal payments to the public (M).-Executive Office of
the President, Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal
adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal
quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the method of seasonal adjustment
83. Federal receipts from the public (M).--Executive Office of
the President, Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal
adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal
quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the method of seasonal
adjustment
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit (M).--Executive Office of
the President, Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal
adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal
quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series
because of differences in the method of seasonal adjustment.
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits plus currency) (M).—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).-De-
partment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
87. General imports, total (M).--Departrrent of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87)
(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments
Defense Department obligations, procurement (M).—Depart-
ment of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
91. Defense Department obligations, total (M).-Department of
Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census
92. Military prime contract awards, U.S. business firms (M).--
Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
93.
Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus bor-
rowings) (M).—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System; no seasonal adjustment
94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M).--F. W.
Dodge Corporation
7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
Countries, index of industrial production (M).-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M).—Dominion Bureau of Statistics, Ottawa
125- West Germany, index of industrial production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
126. France, index of industrial production (M).—Organization
for Economic Cooperation and Development
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M).—Organization
for Economic Cooperation and Development
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M).-The Bank of
Japan, Statistics Department; seasonal adjustment bv
Burea.u of the Census
...
United States,
series 47.
index of industrial
production (M).—See
DIFFUSION INDEXES
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion indexes and corresponding business cycle series bear
the same number and are obtained from the same sources. See
sources above for D 1, D5, D6, Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54,
and D6l. Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D33. Profits, Chicago PAA (M).-Purchasing Agents Association of Chicago; no seasonal adjustment
D34. Profits, FNCB (M).-First National City Bank of New
York* no seasonal adjustment of series components
D35. Net sales, total manufactures (Q).—Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (Q).—Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
D48. Freight carloadings (Q).--Association of American Railroads; no seasonal adjustment
D58. Wholesale prices, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
of series components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally
adjusted by National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
@FedFRASER