Full text of Business Conditions Digest : August 1969
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http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ J.S. Reserve DEPARTMENT OF Federal Bank of St. Louis AUGUST 1969 DATA THROUGH JULY COMMERCE BUREAU OF THE CENSUS This report was prepared in the Statistical Analysis Division. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are— Feliks Tamm—Technical supervision and review, Barry A. Beckman—Specificationsfor computer processing, Gerald F. Donahoe—New projects, Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment methods, Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic data. (Telephone 440-1596) Editorial supervision is provided by Maureen Padgett of the Administrative and Publications Services Division. The cooperation of various government and private agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series and sources at the back of this report. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Maurice H. Stans, Secretary Rocco C. Siciliano, Under Secretary William H. Chartener, Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee established by the Bureau of the Budget. This committee consists of the following persons: BUREAU OF THE CENSUS Julius Shiskin, Bureau of the Budget Chairman A. Ross Eckler, Director Robert F. Drury, Deputy Director William H. Branson, Council of Economic Advisers A. Ross Eckler, Bureau of the Census George Jaszi, Office of Business Economics Geoffrey H. Moore, Bureau of Labor Statistics Kenneth Williams, Federal Reserve Board EDWIN D. GOLDFIELD, Assistant Director ABOUT THE REPORT ANTICIPATIONS AND NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT accounts summarize both receipts and final expenditures for the personal, business, foreign, and government sectors of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total of the final expenditures, which equals the total of the receipts, is known as gross national product, the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output. GNP is defined as the total market value of the final output of goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. CYCLICAL INDICATORS are economic time series which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or /aggers in relation to movements in aggregate economic activity. In this report, the series on the NBER's list of cyclical indicators are classified by economic process and by cyclical timing. These indicators were selected primarily on the basis of their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. INTENTIONS data provide information on the plans of businessmen and consumers regarding their major economic activities in the near future. This information is considered to be a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication of the state of confidence concerning the economic outlook. A number of surveys by various organizations and government agencies have been developed in recent years to ascertain anticipations and intentions. The results of some of these surveys, expressed as time series, are presented in this report. Subscription price, including supplements, is $16 a year ($4 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues are $1.50. Airmail delivery is available at an additional charge. For information about domestic or foreign airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below), enclosing a copy of your This monthly report brings together many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts and forecasters. Its predecessor, Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclica1 indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions and was based largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Some other approaches commonly used by students of economic conditions include econometric models and anticipations and intentions data. The econometric model concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships among consumption, private investment, government, and various components of the major aggregates to generate forecasts of gross national product and its composition. Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of businessmen and the intentions of consumers. Most of the content of Bus/ness Cycle Developments has been retained in this new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis of other approaches have been added to to make it more generally useful to those concerned with an evaluation of current business conditions and prospects. The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is not to be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government agency of any particular approach to economic analysis. This report is intended only to provide statistical information so arranged as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's economy. Almost all of the basic data presented in this report have been published by their source agencies. A series finding guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and data sources, is shown at the back of this report. address label. Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402, or to any U.S. Department of Commerce Field Office. New Features and Changes for This Issue.. METHOD OF PRESENTATION BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST AUGUST 1969 Data Through July Series ESI No. 69-8 Seasonal Adjustments MCD Moving Averages Reference Turning Dates Section A. National Income and Product 1 1 1 1 Section B. Cyclical Indicators Section C. Anticipations and Intentions Section D. Other Key Indicators Section E. Analytical Measures Section F. International Comparisons 2 3 3 3 3 How to Read Charts Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes 4 5 PART I. CHARTS NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Al ~A2 A3 A4 A7 AS A9 Gross National Product National and Personal Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Gross Private Domestic Investment Foreign Trade Government Purchases of Goods and Services Final Sales and Inventories National Income Components Saving 9 10 11 ....12 13 14 15 -16 17 CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Employment and Unemployment Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade Fixed Capital Investment Inventories and Inventory Investment Prices, Costs, and Profits Money and Credit Selected Indicators by Timing Composite Indexes NBER Short List , 18 21 23 26 28 30 34 36 ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS Aggregate Series Diffusion Indexes 40 43 OTHER KEY INDICATORS Foreign Trade Balance of Payments and Major Components 46 47 Federal Government Activities 52 Price Movements 54 ANALYTICAL MEASURES El E2 E3 Actual and Potential Gross National Product Analytical Ratios 56 57 Diffusion Indexes 59 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Fl^ F3 Consumer Prices Industrial Production Stock Prices 61 62 63 PART II. TABLES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT A5 A6 A7 Gross National Product National and Personal Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Gross Private Domestic Investment Foreign Trade Government Purchases of Goods and Services Final Sales and Inventories 64 64 65 65 66 66 66 AS A9 National Income Components Saving 66 67 A2 A3 A4 CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing B2 B3 Employment and Unemployment Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade Fixed Capital Investment Inventories and Inventory Investment Prices, Costs, and Profits Money and Credit Selected Indicators by Timing 68 70 71 73 74 75 Composite Indexes 77 ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS Aggregate Series Diffusion Indexes 78 79 OTHER KEY INDICATORS Foreign Trade Balance of Payments and Major Components 81 82 Federal Government Activities Price Movements 84 85 ANALYTICAL MEASURES Actual and Potential GNP Analytical Ratios Diffusion Indexes Selected Diffusion Index Components 86 87 88 91 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Consumer Prices Industrial Production Stock Prices 97 98 99 APPENDIXES A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See June issue) QCD and Related Measures of Variability, B. Current Adjustment Factors C. Historical Data for Selected Series D. Descriptions and Sources of Series (Not shown this month) 101 104 105 E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1954 to 1961 Index—Series Finding Guide Titles and Sources of Series 112 113 115 NEW FEATURES AND CHANGES FOR THIS ISSUE Changes in this issue are as follows: A limited number of changes are made from time to time to incorporate recent find- 1. The series on money supply (series 85 and 98) have been revised throughout the report for the period July 1967 to date. These changes reflect the source agency's revision of the basic series due to a change in accounting procedures associated with bank clearings of Euro-dollar transactions. The effect of the new procedures was a substantial increase in the level of the demand deposit component of money supply. The source agency plans to complete further revisions, reflecting new benchmarks and changes in seasonal factors, in the near future. Thus, the present revisions are tentative. Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Banking Section. 2. The series on capital appropriations (series 11 and 97) were shown on a revised basis, due to a new sample and asset base, in the May issue of BCD. This revision covered the period from the 4th quarter 1968 to date. The source agency has now extended new sample and asset base data to cover all four quarters of 1968. The user is reminded that this revision seriously affects the comparability of the closing backlogs series (series 97) between the ending date (4-th quarter 1967) for the old sample and asset base and the beginning date (1st quarter 1968) for the new sample and asset base. The source agency has revised the 1968 seasonally adjusted data from the old sample and asset base. These revised figures are as follows (billion dollars): Series 11, New appropriations; IQ = $.53; IIQ = 5.58; IIIQ = 6.18; and IVQ•= 6.37. Series 97, Closing backlogs: IQ = 20.^6; IIQ = 20.50; IIIQ = 20.94; and IVQ = 21.56. Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the National Industrial Conference Board, Department of Investment Economics, 845 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y., 10002. Continued on page iv. The September issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for release on September 30. iii ings of economic research, newly aval/able time series, and revisions made by source agencies in concept composition, comparability, coverage, seasonal adjustment methods, benchmark data, etc. Changes may result in revisions of data, additions or deletions of series, changes in placement of series in relation to other series, changes in composition of indexes, etc. 3. The analytical ratios (series 856, 858, and 859) based, in part, on factory employment data have been revised to reflect the Bureau of Labor Statistics1 adoption of a new benchmark (March 1968) and new seasonal adjustments. Series 856 contains scattered revisions beginning in 1963, series 858 is revised from the 2d quarter 1966 to date, and series 859 is revised over the entire period of the series. Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Division of Industry and Employment Statistics. 4. Appendix C includes historical data for series 210a, 224-227, 230-234, 236, 237, 240-245, 250, 252, 253, 260, 262, 856, 858, and 859. IV METHOD OF PRESENTATION THIS REPORT is organized into six major subject sections, as follows: A. B. C. D. E. F. National Income and Product Cyclical Indicators Anticipations and Intentions Other Key Indicators Analytical Measures International Comparisons Each of these sections is described briefly in this introduction. Data for each of the above sections are shown both in Part I (charts) and in Part II (tables) of the report. The charts begin with 1948 (except in section C where they begin with 1957); the tables contain data for only the last few years. Except for section F, the charts contain shading which indicates periods of recession in general business activity. In addition to the charts and tables described above, each issue contains a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series, and several appendixes which present historical data, series descriptions, seasonal adjustment factors, and measures of variability. An index appears at the back of each issue. It should be noted that the series numbers used are for identification purposes only and do not reflect relationships or order. Seasonal Adjustments Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive intrayear variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; however, a separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation due to the number of working or trading days in each month. As used in this report, the term "seasonal adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday adjustments where they have been made. Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these are the official figures released by the source agencies. However, for the special purposes of this report, a number of series not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a seasonally adjusted basis. MCD Moving Averages Month-to-month changes in a series are often dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the smallest span of months for which the average change in the cyclical factor is greater than that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an MCD of 1. The charts for sections B and D include centered MCD moving averages for all series with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations for the most recent months. Reference Turning Dates The historical business cycle turning dates used in this report are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general practice, neither new reference turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until after both the new reference peak and the new reference trough bounding the shaded area have been designated. This policy is followed because of the conceptual and empirical difficulties of designating a current recession and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading of a current recession without including part of a new expansion. SECTION A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT The national income and product accounts, compiled by the Office of Business Economics (QBE), summarize both receipts and final expenditures for the personal, business, foreign, and government sectors of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which equals the total of the receipts (mainly incomes), is known as gross national product (GNP). GNP is defined as the total market value of the final output of goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output. Gross national product consists of four major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services. Personal consumption expenditures is the market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the value of food, clothing, housing, and finan- cial services received by them as income in kind. The total purchase cost is covered, including sales taxes. Home purchases are excluded, but the estimated rental value of owner-occupied homes is included. Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable equipment and private (as opposed to government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates are gross in the sense that there is no deduction for capital consumption. The inventory component measures the change in the physical volume of inventories ' alued at current replacement cost. Net exports of goods and serv/ces measures the excess of exports over imports of goods and services. Exports include both domestic output sold abroad and the contribution to production abroad made by U.S.owned resources. Imports include both U.S. purchases of foreign output and the contribution made to production in the United States by foreign-owned resources. More detail on U.S. balance of payments is provided in section D. Government purchases of goods and services includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net purchases from business and from abroad, payments to private nonprofit institutions for research and development, and the gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays of government enterprises, acquisitions of land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans, and interest payments to domestic creditors. A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP, covering durable and nondurable goods and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section A. Other major aggregates taken from the national income and product accounts are described below. National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods and services and accruing to the labor and property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income, rental income of persons, corporate profits and the inventory valuation adjustment, and net interest. Personal income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust funds, and private health and welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income, proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income, and transfer payments to persons, less personal contributions for social insurance. Disposable personal income is the personal income available for spending or saving. It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments to general government. Gross saving represents the difference between income and spending during an ac- counting period. It is the total of personal saving, undistributed corporate profits, corporate inventory valuation adjustment, the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government surplus or deficit, and capital consumption allowances. Most of the series in this section are on a current-dollar basis, but some are shown on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that the effects of price changes are eliminated. The implicit price deflator (computed by dividing the current-dollar data by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP is also shown. SECTION B CYCLICAL INDICATORS The business cycle is generally described as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as total production, employment, income, consumption, trade, and the flow of funds. Although a recurrent pattern has been characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it inevitable. One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 72 cyclical indicators is the basis for this section of BCD. These indicators were selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. The NBER employs a dual classification scheme which groups the indicators by cyclical timing and by economic process, and this report uses the same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system used in this section. The 72 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification and cyclical timing as the secondary basis. The major processes are divided into minor processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing classification takes into account a series' historical record of timing at business cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators are those which usually reach peaks or troughs before the corresponding turns in aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging indicators usually reach their turning points after the turns in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has also specified a "short list" of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal indicators is drawn from the full list and provides a convenient summary of the current situation. The short list consists of 26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these are quarterly series; the rest are monthly. The short list is classified only by timing and is shown separately in chart B8. Included in this section are a number of composite indexes which provide simple summary measures of the average behavior of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is weighted according to its value in forecasting or identifying short-term movements in aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each has, aside from its weight, an equal opportunity to influence the index. Each index is standardized so that its average month-to-month percent change is 1 (without regard to sign). The composite indexes presented in this report are based on groups of indicators selected by timing. Thus, there is an index of leading indicators, another of coincident indicators, and a third of lagging indicators. In addition, there are five indexes based on leading indicators which have been grouped by economic process. These indexes indicate the underlying cyclical trends of each group of indicators and the relative magnitude of their short-term changes. The index of 12 leading indicators has been "reverse trend adjusted" so that its long-run trend parallels that of the coincident index. This facilitates compari- Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing 1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (14 series) Marginal employment adjustments (5 series) LEADING INDICATORS (36 series) Job vacancies (2 series) ROUGHLY COINCIDEN1 Comprehensive employment INDICATORS (3 series) (25 series) Comprehensive unemployment (3 series) Long-duration unemployment (1 series) LAGGING INDICATORS (11 series) II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE (8 series) III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (14 series) IV. INVENTORIES Formation of business enterprises (2 series) New investment commitments <S series) Inventory investment anil purchasing (7 series) AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (9 series) Comprehensive Backlog of investment commitments production (2 series) (3 series) Comprehensive income (2 series) Comprehensive consumption and trade (3 series) Investment expenditures (2 series) Inventories (2 series) V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (10 series) VI. MONEY AND CREDIT (17 series) Sensitive commodity prices (1 series) Stock prices (2 series) Profits and profit margins (4 series) Flows of money and credit (6 series) Credit difficulties (2 series) Comprehensive wholesale prices . (2 series) Bank reserves (1 series) Money market interest rates (4 series) Unit tabor costs <2 series) Outstanding debt (2 series) Interest rates on business loans and mortgages (2 series) sons among the leading, coincident, and lagging indexes and tends to shorten the leads of the leading index at business cycle peaks while lengthening them at troughs; it also reduces the variability of the leads and lags. SECTION C ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS Most businessmen and many individual consumers have some type of plans as to their major economic activities in the near future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication of the state of confidence concerning the economic outlook. In recent years, much progress has been made in compiling such information, and a number of surveys by various organizations and government agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The results of some of these surveys, expressed as time series, are presented in this section of the report. The business analyst who uses these series should be aware of their limitations. These data reflect only the respondents' anticipations (what they expect others to do) or intentions (what they plan to do), not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses may not be very reliable; that is, the plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many plans are subject to modification or even complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments. In some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for example, the anticipations (or intentions) data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what has already occurred and hence appear to lag behind actual changes. Actual data are included in this section to indicate their historical relationship to the anticipations and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the description for section E. SECTION D OTHER KEY INDICATORS Many economic series are available which, although not included in the three main sections of the report, are nevertheless important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of such series, though by no means a com- prehensive selection. In general, these series reflect processes which are not direct measures of economic activity but which do have a significant bearing on business conditions. The foreign trade and payments series include data on imports and exports and their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts are shown. Some are charted in a manner which emphasizes the balance between receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports of goods and services, and income on U.S. investments abroad with payments on foreign investments in the United States. In addition, balances are shown for U.S. Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the private sector (banks and U.S. residents other than banks). Finally, cumulative changes are shown for other components; for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets. Because these data are influenced by foreign as well as domestic conditions, the cyclical shading has been omitted from the balance-of-payments charts. The Federal Government activities series include Federal receipts and expenditures and their balance, and selected Federal defense activities. The receipts and expenditures data are from the national income and product accounts, but are not shown in section A of this report. The defense series included are only a few of the many available. For a more comprehensive picture of defense activities, see Defense Indicators, a monthly Bureau of the Census publication. The price movements series consist of consumer and wholesale price indexes and their major components. Additional data on prices and costs are shown in several other sections. SECTION E ANALYTICAL MEASURES This section begins by comparing gross national product in constant dollars with a measure of potential GNP. In effect, these two series reflect the relationship between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree to which potentially productive resources are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of Economic Advisers in the early 1960fs, takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour. The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic variables (for example, the series on labor cost per unit of output). There are, however, additional analytical ratios which have proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such ratios are shown in the second part of this section. The third part presents diffusion indexes for selected economic activities. Many of the series throughout this report are aggregates compiled from a number of components. A diffusion index is a simple summary measure which expresses, for a particular aggregate, the percentage of components rising over a given timespan. It reflects only directions of change among the components, not magnitudes. Cyclical changes in diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, long-term (6- or 9-month span) diffusion indexes are shown to bring out the underlying trends and short-term (month-tomonth) indexes are shown to indicate the most recent developments. Most of the diffusion indexes are based on aggregate series shown in section B, and have the same series numbers preceded by the letter "D". The diffusion indexes are classified according to the cyclical timing of the aggregates to which they relate. The final part (E4), which appears only as a table, lists many of the components used in computing the diffusion indexes. Where possible, recent data for the components are shown and the month-tomonth directions of change are indicated. SECTION F INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Because this report is designed as an aid to the analysis of U.S. business conditions, all previous sections are based on data which relate directly to that purpose. But many business analysts examine economic developments in other important countries with a view to their impact on the United States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which we have important trade relationships. Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series. Also included is an industrial production index for the European countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price indexes measure an important sector of prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has been omitted from the charts. HOW TO READ CHARTS Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) asdesignated by NBER. Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of recession and beginning of Expansion as designated by NBER. Basic Data (May) (Feb.) P T Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Solid line indicates monthly data. (Data may be actual monthly figures or MCD moving averages.*) Arabic number indicates latest 20 -uXmonth for which data are plotted. ("6" = June) / Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter) Dotted line indicates anticipated data. Broken line indicates actual monthly data for series where an MCD moving average* is plotted. Parallel lines indicate a break in continuity (data not available, changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.) Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data. Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. The scales should be carefully noted because they show whether the plotted lines for various series are directly comparable. Scale shows percent of components rising. Solid line indicates monthly data over 6- or 9-month spans. Broken line indicates monthly data over 1-month spans. Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans. *Many of the more irregular series are shown in terms of their MCD moving averages as well as their actual monthly data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted l l / 2 , 2, or 2*/2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD moving averages. Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are used in computing the indexes. ("6" = June) Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are used in computing the indexes. ("I" — first quarter) Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans. NOTE: Some of the charts of anticipations and intentions data (section C) and balance of payments data (section D) do not conform to the above method of presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur. HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES To locate a series in BCD, consult the "Index—Series Finding Guide" in the back of the book where series are arranged into six sections and various subsections. Also, in the list of 'Titles and Sources of Series" which follows the Finding Guide, series are listed in numerical order within each of the six sections, and the charts and tables in which they appear are indicated. Basic data1 Unit of measure Series title 1966 1967 1968 1st Q Percent change 2dQ 3dQ 4th Q IstQ 2dQ 1968 1968 1968 1969 1969 3dQ to 4th Q 4th Q to IstQ IstQ to 2dQ 1968 1969 1969 Series number Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT A1. Grots Notional Product GNP in current dollars GNP in 1958 dollars Implicit price deflator Per capita GNP in current dollars Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars Ann. rate, bil. dol. . do 1958*100 Ann. rate, dot. . . rjo 750.0 658.1 113.9 3 1807 3,341 793.5 674.6 117.6 3,984 3»388 865.7 707.6 122.3 4»302 3»517 835.3 693.3 120.5 4,168 3t459 858.7 705.8 121.7 4,274 3,513 876.4 712.8 122.9 4,350 3,538 892.5 718.5 124.2 4,418 3,557 908.7 723.1 125.7 4,488 3,571 924.8 726.7 127.3 4,556 3,580 1,8 0.8 Itl 1,6 0.5 1.8 0.6 1.2 1.6 0.4 1.8 0.5 1.3 1.5 0.3 200 205 210 215 217 Ann. rate, bil.to!,. 720. National income, current dollars do do 224. Disposable personal income, current dol ... do 225. Disposable personal income, constant dol . . 226. Per capita disposable personal income, Ann. rate, dol ... current dollars 227. Per capita disposable personal income, do constant dollars 620.6 587.2 511.9 458.9 654.0 629.4 546.5 477.7 714.4 687.9 590.0 497.6 688.8 664.3 575.0 492.1 707.4 680.1 587.4 497.4 724.1 696.1 593.4 498.9 737.3 711.2 604.3 502.1 75i;3 724.4 610.2 502.6 765.0 740.5 622.0 506.2 1.8 2,2 1.8 0,6 1.9 1.9 1.0 0.1 1.8 2.2 1.9 0.7 220 222 224 225 2,599 2,745 2*933 2,869 2^924 2,946 2,991 3,014 3,065 1.5 2t33l 2,399 2f474 2f455 2*476 2,477 2,485 2*482 2»494 0,3 466.3 418.1 492.3 430.3 536.6 452.6 520.6 445.6 530.3 449,0 544.9 458.2 550.7 457.6 562.0 462.9 572.8 466 .,2; 70.8 45.4 25.3 73.0 48.1 79.5 51.1 28.4 81.8 52.6 29.2 85.8 54.1 24.9 83.3 53.2 30.2 31.7 86.3 54.9 31.4 88.4 57.5 30.9 90.6 59.2 31.4 206.9 188.6 215.1 204.2 230.6 222.8 226.1 215.1 228.5 220.0 233.3 225.8 234.3 230.1 238.6 235.0 242.1 240.1 0,4 1.9 1.8 2.1 121.4 116.0 126.3 119.4 126.6 125.2 133.9 135.2 137.4 81.6 28.5 53.1 25.0 14.8 83.7 27.9 55.7 25.0 88.8 29.3 59.5 3Q.2 89.1 29.8 59.4 28.6 86.4 28.3 58.1 88.1 29.0 59.1 29.9 91.5 30.1 61.4 31.9 95.3 32.3 63.0 33.3 97.8 32.1 65.7 32.7 6.9 3,9 3,8 3,9 6,7 1.0 4.2 7.3 2.6 4.4 200, 205. 210 215. 217. 0.8 -0.1 1.7 226 0.5 227 1.9 0.7 2.5 3.0 1.6 1.5 2.2 230 231 232 233 234 236 237 1.6 2.6 240 241 242 243 244 245 A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures 231. 232. 233. 234. 236 237. Ann.rate,bil.dol. . do Total, constant dollars. do Durable goods, current dollars do Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars. . do Automobiles, current dollars ..... do Nondurable goods, current dollars do Services, current dollars A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment do 240. Gross private domestic investment, total . . . do 241. Fixed investment, total nonresident! a 1 do 242. Fixed investment, nonresidential structures. do 243. Fixed investment, producers' dur. equip. . . . 244 Fixed investment residential structures • • . . . . do do 245. Change in business inventories, total . — 7.4 7.3 1.6 30.3 9.9 1.1 -0,1 0,6 1.5 -0,9 7.2 2.1 1.2 2.4 4.7 -1.6 -3.9 -0.6 4.3 -1.8 0.3 AS. Foreign Trade 250 Net exports of goods and services2 252 Exports 253 Imports do do do 5.3 5.2 2.5 1.9 3.4 3.6 1.2 43.4 38.1 46.2 41.0 50.6 48.1 47.7 45.9 50.7 47.3 53.4 49.7 50.6 49.4 do do , do do 156.8 180.1 200.3 193.4 198..4 77.8 60.7 79.0 90.7 72.4 89.3 99.5 78,0 96.3 78.8 100.7 99.0 77.9 99.4 202.5 100.9 76.1 97.1 do 146.2 157.0 171.4 166. 4 3.9 234.1 5.3 252.3 1.9 246.5 1.5 47i 6 1.6 -2,4 -5,2 -0,6 0.3 46.1 57.1 55.5 206.7 101.9 210.0 101.6 212.9 100.6 79.3 79.0 78.5 101.7 104.8 108.5 112.3 168.9 173.7 176.6 181.6 185.5 I'7 6.8 250.4 5.1 256.1 7.4 256.4 4.8 259.7 4.9 264.1 2,3 0,1 -2.6 3.1 2.1 3.1 1.8 2.1 1.0 -1.3 2.4 0.0 0.9 -5.9 -6.7 0.1 20.0 20.4 250 252 253 A6. Government Purchases of Goods and Services 260. Total 262 Federal 266 State and local 270. Final sales, durable goods 271. Change 2in business inventories, durable goods 274. Final sales nondurable goods 275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods 2 do 10.5 do . , . . .222.3 2,1 1,0 0,6 3,0 ..do 4.3 3.5 2.0 do do do do do 435.5 467.4 513.6 495.1 507.0 519.8 532.3 546.0 558.2 61.3 20.0 82.4 21.4 61.9 20.8 79.2 24.7 63.8 21.2 87.9 27.9 63.2 21.1 82.5 26.7 63.6 21.2 88.2 27.5 64.1 21.2 90.6 28.4 64.1 21.4 90.3 29.3 64.6 89.5 29.8 66.5 21.6 88.5 30.3 do do 124.9 119.2 128.4 120.5 128.8 129.1 135.4 133:5 142.0 32.5 40.4 38.4 39.9 42.3 33.2 38.0 32.5 33.3 14.5 294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment 296. Capital consumption allowances 298. Government surplus or deficit, total 2 do do do 27.4 63.9 24.8 68.6 23.4 73.3 -6.7 24. ,1 -10.8 23.6 74.6 -0.9 21.1 77.2 10.4 -7.8 -11.5 25.6 73.7 -3.5 22.3 75.9 -14.5 El. Actual and Potential GNP 207. GNP cap (potential less actual) 2 do -11.0 -1.7 -7.7 -3.7 -9.4 -9.5 -8.3 -5i9 -0.3 1.6 1.4 3.5 3.5 260 262 264 266 2.8 2.1 270 0.1 1.7 271 274 0.3 275 2.2 2.9 0.5 -0.3 -0.4 1.3 -1,0 -0.6 A8. Notional Income Components 280. 282. 284. 286. 288. Compensation of employees Proprietors' income Rental income of persons Corp. profits and inventory valuation adj. . . Net interest A9. Saving 290. Gross saving, total 1.1 20.4 71.7 73.0 2li5 7.8 -2.4 2.6 0.8 0.5 3,2 1.7 1.7 280 282 284 286 288 4.9 2.3 -14,5 2.5 2.5 290 292 -0,3 -0.9 -1.1 1.2 2.6 1.7 8.7 1.7 2.6 294 296 298 1.2 2.4 3.5 207 -5.5 -5.4 Basic data * Series title Unit of measure 1967 1968 4th Q IstQ 1969 2dQ 1969 Percent change May 1969 June 1969 July 1969 May to June June to July 1969 1969 4th Q to IstQ 1969 IstQ to 2dQ 1969 Series number Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con. B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS 67. Compositt Indexes 126.9 143.2 150.9 138.4 156.6 164.8 144.0 161.8 171.0 145.8 165.8 179.0 148.3 169.2 185.3 148.1 169.0 185.8 148.2 170.8 186.6 147.6 171.6 186.8 100.2 107.1 101.0 114.6 98.3 101.6 114.2 101.8 116.6 102.2 101.1 118.5 102.4 118.5 104.2 100.5 118.9 103.6 118.7 101.8 100.8 118.5 105.4 118.6 102.8 100. 1 117.9 105.9 119.6 101.6 100.6 117.6 104.2 117.7 102.7 100.2 117.2 106.3 116.5 NA LEADING INDICATORS Marginal Employment Adjustments: 40.6 *1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg. . . . Hours Ann. rate, thous. . 5t817 *4. Nonagri. placements, all industries 2 2. Accession rate, manufacturing Per 100 employ . . 4.4 5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State 225 Thousands unemployment insurance (inverted3) 1.4 3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted3)2. . . Per 100 employ . . 40.7 5»716 4.6 40.8 5t452 4.7 40.5 5t352 4.7 40.7 5t356 4.9 40.7 5tl24 4.8 40.7 5t520 4.9 194 1.2 189 1.1 183 1.1 186 1.0 180 1.1 348 182 373 200 373 220 365 228 383 218 131.4 65.8 70.5 134.6 67.8 72.1 136.0 68.7 72.7 137.5 69.5 73.8 3.8 3.6 3.4 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 0.6 Ann. rate, bil.dol do 1957-59=100 .... 810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj. . 1953-jOO ...... do 820. 5 coincident indicators do 830 6 lagging indicators 0.1 -0.4 0.5 0.1 1.2 2.5 4.7 1.7 2.1 3.5 810 820 830 1.1 -0.4 -0.3 2.0 -1,0 NA -0.6 0.3 1.2 0.2 -2.3 0.3 -0.3 1.7 -0,1 1,0 813 814 815 816 817 40.7 5t352 NA 0.0 7,7 0.1 0,0 -3,0 NA -0.7 -1.8 0.0 0.5 0.1 0,2 1 4 2 201 1.0 197 NA -11.7 0.1 2,0 NA 3.2 0.0 -1.6 0.1 5 3 387 217 383 209 358 210 -1.0 -3.7 -6,5 0,5 -2.1 3.6 4.9 -4.4 49 46 139.0 70.0 73.8 139.2 70.0 73.5 139.4 70.3 74.0 139.9 70.5 74.3 0,4 0,3 0.4 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.0 48 41 42 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.4 3:6 0.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2:2 -0.1 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 i:6 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 o;s 0.0 793.5 674.6 158.1 865.7 707.6 165.4 892.5 718.5 167.4 908.7 723.1 170.2 924.8 726.7 172.8 172.7 173.9 175.2 Comprehensive Income: *52. Personal income Ann. rate, bil. dol. 53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr . . . do 629.4 163.8 687.9 178.6 711.2 184.9 724.4 188.5 740.6 193.5 740.0 193.1 746.1 195.3 752.3 196.3 Comprehensive Consumption and Trade: *56. Manufacturing and trade sales 57. Final sales *54. Sales of retail stores do do do It 068 786.2 314.0 It 163 It 194 It 212 858.4 882*0 902.1 338.9 343.4 348.8 It 239 917.9 352.7 It 239 1 1 249 352.6 352.0 353.8 1957-59=100 .... Ann. rate, thous. . 107.7 207.8 117.8 233.2 124.2 251.4 124.7 256.5 123.5 281.6 123.1 278.8 123.6 284.5 NA NA 302.3 155 75.4 23.0 63.0 334.5 174 85.0 24.8 69.7 355.9 187 93.0 26.5 75.5 359.4 191 93.3 26.6 76.5 360.4 191 96.4 29.9 80.2 360.0 210 96.1 350.0 180 94.0 369i4 176 93.7 77.2 78.4 77.0 1.6 703 If 273 95.6 793 It 498 112.9 883 It 579 118.9 912 It 692 119.8 922 It 495 116.0 It027 It 495 110.6 949 1*441 112.0 869 It314 100.8 -746 -3,6 1.3 80.58 20.41 84.07 20.02 84.07 20.02 85.16 20.48 85.91 21.54 86.88 85.91 86.45 -1,1 LEADING INDICATOR SECTORS 813. Marginal employment adjustments • 814. Capital investment commitments ........ 815. Inventory investment and purchasing 816. Profitability 817. Sensitive financial flows do do do do do 1 l.l 0.4 0.5 -0.3 -1.6 -1.6 Bl. Employment and Unemployment ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS Job Vacancies: 49. Nonagri. job openings unfilled Thous., EOP 1957-59=100 .... Comprehensive Employment: 48. Man-hours in nonagricultural Ann. rate, billion man-hours establishments. Millions *41. Employees on nonagri payrolls do 42 Persons engaged in nonagri activities • . . Comprehensive Unemployment: *43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted3)2. . . .Percent 45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment do rate (inverted3)2 40. Unemployment rate, married males 3 2 do (inverted ) LAGGWG INDICATORS Long Duration Unemployment: * 44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inverted3)2 do 0.1 0.4 0.7 -0,2 -0,1 -0,1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 43 45 0.1 -0.1 40 0,0 0.0 -0.1 44 0.7 0,7 1.8 0.6 1.7 1.8 0.5 1,5 200 205 47 0,8 1.1 0,8 0,5 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.7 52 53 NA 0.5 1.5 2.3 1.6 2.2 1.8 1,1 56 57 54 NA NA 0.4 2.0 -1,0 9,8 12 13 5,5 -2,2 -0.3 -1,8 1.0 2.1 0.3 0.4 1.3 0,3 0,0 3,3 12,4 4,8 6 8 10 11 24 -8,4 -8,8 -10,0 3.3 7.2 0.8 1,1 -11,6 -3.2 9 7 29 0,6 1.3 2.3 0.9 5.2 96 97 B2. Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS Comprehensive Production: *200. GNP in current dollars . *205. GNP in 1958 dollars *47. Industrial production NA 0.8 -0,2 B3. Fixed Capital Investment LEADING INDICATORS Formation of Business Enterprises: *12. Index of net business formation 13. New business incorporations New Investment Commitments: *6. New orders, durable goods industries .... Ann. rate, bil. dol . . 8. Construction contracts, total value 1957-59=100 .... *10. Contracts and orders, plant, equipment . . .Ann. rate, bil. dol .. 11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing. do 24. New orders, mach. and equip, industries . . do Ann.rate,mil.sq. 9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial buildings . ft. floor space . . 7. Private nonfarm housing starts Ann. rate, thous. . *29. New bldg. permits, private housing 1957-59=100 .... ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS Backlog of Investment Commitments: 96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries4. Bil.dol., EOP... . 97. Backlog of capital approp. mfg.* do 0.4 2.0 -2,8 -14.3 -2.2 Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Con. Basic data1 Series title Unit of measure 1967 1968 4th Q IstQ 1968 1969 Percent change 2dQ May June July 1969 1969 1969 May to June 1969 June to July 4th Q to IstQ IstQ to 2dQ 1969 1969 1969 C 8 31 B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con. B3. Fixtd Capital Investment-Con. LAGGING INDICATOR Investment Expenditures: 61, Business expend., new plant and equip • • • Ann. rate, bil.dol. 61,69 69, Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures do 76.90 64.11 65.90 68.90 a72.00 82.69 86.61 90.58 90.15 4.6 89.84 91.78 NA 2.2 NA 4.6 4.5 61 69 -0.5 B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment LEADING INDICATORS Inventory Investment and Purchasing: 245. Change in business inventories, all industries2. *31. Change in book value, 2manufacturing and trade inventories 37, Purchased materials, percent reporting Ann. rate, billion dollars 7.4 do 6.6 Percent ... Ann. rate, billion dollars 20. Change in book value, manufacturers' inventories of materials, supplies2 26. Buying policy, production materials, commitments 60 days or longer2 ® . . . fercent • 32. Vendor performance, percent reporting do,,,. Ann. rate billion 25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods dollars industries2 7.3 10.1 10.5 12.6 6.6 10.5 6.9 10.8 -3.9 13.5 6.1 NA 44 51 43 46 50 52 50 51 0.1 1.4 0.1 1.1 1.0 2.8 -1.1 NA NA -7.4 -3.9 -2.1 1 -2 0.3 245 0.3 31 4 37 3 NA 1.0 20 -0.1 65 64 61 59 65 64 66 59 2 -7 -2 6 26 44 53 56 61 69 69 70 66 1 -4 5 8 32 2.6 3.5 4.3 3.0 5.0 14.0 -11.6 6:5 -16.6 18.1 -9.7 -1.3 25 LAGGING INDICATORS Inventories: *71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories * . .Bil.dol., EOP... 143.8 65, Book value, manufacturers' inventories 26.81 do of finished goods^ 153.9 153.9 156.5 159.2 158.7 159.2 NA 0.3 NA 1.7 1.7 71 29.13 29.13 29.61 30.45 30.41 30.45 NA 0.1 NA 1.6 2.8 65 112:4 1.1 0.7 6.0 4.6 23 0.8 19 B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits LEADING INDICATORS Sensitive Commodity Prices: *23. Industrial materials prices® 1957-59=100 .... 100.4 97.8 99.5 105.5 110.4 110.4 111.6 Stock Prices: *19 Stock prices 500 common stocks® 1941-43=10 91.9 98.7 105.2 100.9 101.7 104.6 99.1 47.3 49.8 51.6 52.2 51.6 1.2 -1.1 16 11.9 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.0 -0.3 5.0 100.7 -0.1 -0.1 99.2 98.7 99.8 99.9 100.1 100.1 100.4 0.0 0,3 1.1 NA 0.1 22 15 17 109.0 109.4 109.9 110.3 111.4 111.7 112,2 112.8 112.2 112.8 112*2 113.2 112.4 113.5 0.0 0.4 0,2 0.3 1.4 1.3 0.7 1.0 55 58 0.723 110.3 0^732 111.8 0.745 112.0 0.757 112.9 112.7 113.1 11340 0.4 -0,1 1.8 0.2 1.6 0.8 68 62 11.8 -1.9 -2.4 -0.6 19.4 10.2 -0.4 -7.6 2.0 5.5 3.2 -7,2 -13.7 2*4 1.9 98 85 33 113 112 UO Profits and Profit Margins: *16. Corporate profits, after taxes Ann. rate, bil.dol. 22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate, all industries2 Percent 15. Profits (after taxes) per dot. of sales, mfg.2 Cents *17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg 1957-59=100 .... 5.1 5.1 5.0 94.7 -5.3 -4,4 NA -4.1 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS Comprehensive Wholesale Prices: 55. Wholesale prices, indus. commodities ® . 1957-59=100 .... 106.3 do 58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods § . 106.7 LAGGING INDICATORS Unit Labor Costs: 68. Labor cost per unit of gross product, *62 Labor cost per unit of output mfg Dollars 0.706 1957-5^100 .... 106.0 B6. Money and Credit LEADING INDICATORS Flows of Money and Credit: 98. Change in 2money supply and time Ann* rate, weent deposits do 85. Change in money supply22 33. Change in mortgage debt Ann. rate, Nl.fcl. 2 do *113. Change in consumer installment debt ... do 112. Change in business loans 2 do 110. Total private borrowing Credit Difficulties: 14. Liabi lities of business fai lures (inv.3) ® . do 39. Delinquency rate, installment loans 3 2 (inverted ) * Percent, EOP... 10.6 6.4 16.7 8.8 6.8 8.1 2.8 21.6 0.5 4.7 66.4 79.0 22.5 10.2 12.0 93.0 1.27 0.94 0.83 1.00 LSI 1.74 1.71 It 71 1.51 NA -207 -241 -592 5.34 6.84 5.26 4.45 5.58 7.05 5.42 4.64 6.14 7.46 5.88 5.03 3.2 4.4 20.0 8.9 7.6 8.3 21.3 9.6 10.3 85.7 10.8 81,0 9.1 1.11 NA 4.9 22.6 9.5 7.2 1.10 NA 5.4 NA NA 2.7 1.35 -0.7 -1.9 0.9 0.5 NA NA -4,5 -22,7 NA NA NA -It 003 -It 102 -1»064 -1»095 -38 31 -5.3 -0.9 -1.9 -1.7 -7.8 -20.5 0.20 -0.3 1.3 0.5 -5.5 -21,0 14 NA 39 411 93 o.io 0.27 0.03 114 116 115 fi_ /I A t IT ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS Bank Reserves: 93. Free reserves (inverted *f (g) Million dollars... Money 114. 116. 115. 117. Percent do do do Market Interest Rates: Treasury bill rate 2 ®2 Corporate bond yields <g> Treasury bond yields22® Municipal bond yields (ft 194 4.33 6.08 4.85 3.94 6.24 7.73 5.91 5.43 6.08 7*62 5.85 •5.33 6.49 8.04 6.05 5.76 7.00 8,06 6.07 5.7*5 0.41 0.42 0.20 n.ii-* 0.51 0.02 0.02 -ft.fti 351 0.56 0.41 0.46 n_ TO Basic datal Series title Unit of measure 1967 1968 4th Q 1968 IstQ 1969 Percent change 2dQ 1969 May 1969 June 1969 July 1969 May to June June to July 4th Q to 1969 1969 1969 IstQ IstQ to 2dQ 1969 Series number 1 Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con. B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS~Con. B6. Monty ond Crtdlt-.Con. LAGGING INDICATORS Outstanding Debt: Bil. dol., EOP. . . 66, Consumer installment debt4 do *72. Com. and industrial loans outstanding *. . . 79.2 65.1 88.1 72.3 88.1 72.3 90.2 74.7 92.6 77.0 91.8 77.2 92.6 77.0 NA 76.7 0.9 -0.3 NA -0,4 2.4 3.3 2.7 3.1 66 72 Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages: *67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans *®. . . Percent do 118. Mortgage yields, residential2 © 6.00 6.56 6*68 7.19 6.61 7.38 7.32 8*02 7.86 8.16 8.06 8.35 8.36 0.29 0.01 0.71 0.64 0.54 0.14 67 118 D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS Dl. Foreign Trade 500. Merchandise trade balance2 Ann. rate.bil.dol.. do 502. Exports excluding military aid 506. Export orders, durable goods except motor do vehicles 508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery. . . . 1957-59^100.... 512. General imports Ann.rate,bil.dol.. 1.0 0.2 -0.3 0.9 0.2 0.3 1.3 -0.5 1.2 500 31.0 34.1 34.3 30.3 39.4 39.5 38.6 38.1 -2.3 -1.3 -11.7 30.0 502 10.8 230 26.9 12.3 241 33.1 13.1 238 34.1 13.4 241 30.6 14.6 262 38.6 14.7 254 39.3 15.9 285 38.3 NA NA 36.8 8.2 12.2 -2.5 NA NA -3.9 2.3 1.3 -10.3 9.0 8.7 26.1 506 508 512 -10.28 3.13 -8.37 0.40 520 522 4.1 0.1 1.0 D2. U.S. Bolonc* of Poymtntt 520 Liquidity balance basis2.2 522 Official settlements basis do do -3.54 -3.42 0.09 1.64 3.48 1.47 do -12.7 -5.2 -0.1 do 151.1 176.3 do do do do do do do 163.8 72.4 81.0 26.1 42.5 NA 42.3 1957-59-100.... do 116.3 106.1 -6.80 -15.17 4.60 5.00 D3. Federal Government Activities 600. Federal surplus or deficit, national income and product accounts2 601. Federal receipts, national income and product accounts 602. Federal expenditures, national income and product accounts 264. National defense purchases 616. Defense Dept. obligations, total 621. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement . . . 647. New orders, defense products industries. . . 648. New orders, defense products 625. Military contract awards in U.S 9.6 12.5 9.7 2.9 600 187.3 198.1 201.9 5.8 1.9 601 181.5 78.0 86.6 28.9 47.5 NA 42.3 187.4 79.3 85.6 27.1 50.0 26.6 44.4 188.5 7Q.O 85.5 24.2 48.9 25.2 39.6 189.3 78.5 NA 0.4 42.8 20.6 31.7 75.3 15.6 45.7 21.5 32.1 NA NA 34.4 15.2 31.4 NA NA 49.2 28.7 NA NA NA -24.7 -29.3 -2.2 NA NA 43,0 88,8 NA 0.6 -0.4 -0.1 -10.7 -2.2 -5.3 -10.8 NA NA -12.5 -18.3 -19.9 602 264 616 621 647 648 625 121.2 108.7 123.3 109.5 124.8 111.2 126.9 112.6 126.8 112.8 127.6 113.2 128.2 113.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.3 781 750 84.5 84.2 84.5 84.6 0.3 0.1 850 0.0 NA -o.e D4. Price Movements 750. Wholesale prices, all commodities <§).... E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES E2. Analyticol Ratios 850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing2. . 85.3 851. Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing Ratio and trade 1.58 852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, mfrs.' do durable goods industries 3.48 853. Ratio, production of business equipment to consumer goods 1957-59=100 .... 123.3 854. Ratio, personal savings to disposable personal income Ratio 0.074 855. Ratio, nonagri cultural job openings do 0.121 858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm. . 1957-59-100 .... 129.9 856. Real average hourly earnings, production 2.43 1957-59 dollars.. 859. Real spendable average weekly earnings, 78.08 nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers. • do 6.2 857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing 2 ® • • 1.54 1.54 1*54 1*54 1.54 1.53 NA -0.6 NA 0.0 851 3.31 3.26 3.20 3.22 3*26 3.17 NA -2.8 NA -1.8 0.6 852 118.4 118.8 118.7 120.9 121.5 121.8 0,2 -0.1 1.9 853 0.065 0.063 0.053 0.054 -15.9 1.9 0.133 134.2 0.139 135.8 0.139 135.0 0.137 134.6 2.48 2*48 2.48 2.49 78.17 5.1 78.25 78.05 77.82 2.48 2.50 2.50 78.53 5.4 78.54 4.9 78.29 5.0 121.2 0.138 0.139 0*124 0.2 0.7 0.0 -0.3 -10,8 0.4 -0,3 854 0.0 -0.6 -1.4 -0.3 855 858 0.0 -0.8 856 -0.2 0.1 859 857 -0.3 0.1 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated by®, which appear to contain no seasonal movement. "Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. NA = not available. a = anticipated. EOP = end of period. x ln many cases, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits or are in different units than those shown in the tables in part II. Where available, annual figures are those published by the source agencies or they are rounded from published figures; otherwise they (and the quarterly figures for monthly series) are averages or totals of the data as shown in part II. Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series. 3 Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed. *End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period. 8 NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Chart Al GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT (Nov.) (Oct.) P T 1948 49 50 51 52 (July) P (Aug.) T 53 54 Current data for these series are shown on page 64. BCII AUGUST 1969 (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Section A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) P (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T (Aug.) T 225. Disposabte personal income, 105$ dollars, Q (ana rate, biLdd.) 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 64. 10 AUGUST 1969 BCII Section A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ~A3T] PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) P (Aug.) T (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T consumption expe|j||es~ 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 65. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/AUGUST Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1969 11 Section A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) P (July) (Apr.) P T (Aug.) T (May) (Feb.) P T Annual rate, billion dollars (current) 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 65. 12 AUGUST 1969 ItU) Section A ^^^••H Chart NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT A5~l FOREIGN TRADE (July) P (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (Aug.) T (July) (Apr.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T Annual rate, billion dollars (current) +NH Net exports of goods and services, Q +5- o-560555045403560- 55504540353025- 20- 15- 10J 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 66. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/AUGUST 1969 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis BCII 13 Section A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) P (Aug.) T (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T Annual rate, billion dollars (current) 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 66. 14 AUGUST 1969 BCII Section A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES (Nov.) (Oct.) P T 1948 49 50 51 52 (July) P (Aug.) T 53 54 (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 66. AUGUST 1969 15 Section A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) P (Aug.) T (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T Annual rate, billion dollars (current) 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67. 16 AUGUST 1969 ItOII Section A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT SAVING (Nov.) (Oct.) P T 1948 49 50 51 52 (July) P (Aug.) T 53 54 (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 67. AUGUST 1969 17 CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT Leading Indicators (Nov.) (Oct.) P T 1948 49 50 51 (July) (Aug.) P T 52 53 54 (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 68. 18 AUGUST 1969 BCII Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Chart Bl EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con. Roughly Coincident Indicators (Nov.) (Oct.) P T 1948 49 50 51 52 (July) (Aug.) P T 53 54 (May) (Feb.) (July) (Apr.) P T 55 56 57 58 P 59 60 T 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on pages 68 and 69. AUGUST 1969 19 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con. Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con. (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) P (July) (Apr.) P T (Aug.) T (May) (Feb.) P T 23456 7J 23456- Lagging Indicators 5 and over (percent - inverted scale] 0123- 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 69. 20 AUGUST 1969 iA!«UM«:» CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Chart B2~1 PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE Roughly Coincident Indicators (July) (Aug.) P T (Nov.) (Oct.) P T 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 (July) (Apr.) P T 55 (May) (Feb.) P T 56 65 66 67 68 69 1970 NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected. Current data for these series are shown on page 70. AUGUST 1969 21 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE—Con. Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con. (Nov.) (Oct.) P T 1948 49 50 51 52 (July) P (Aug.) T 53 54 (July) (Apr.) P T 55 56 57 58 (May) (Feb.) P T 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected. Current data for these series are shown on page 70. 22 AUGUST 1969 BCII Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT Leading Indicators (Nov.) (Oct.) P T 1948 49 50 51 52 (July) P (Aug.) T 53 54 (May) (Feb.) P T Ouly) (Apr.) P T 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 T This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without wrinen permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. Current data for these series are shown on page 71. BCII AUGUST 1969 23 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con. Leading Indicators—Con. (Nov.) (Oct.) P T 1948 49 50 51 52 (July) (Aug.) P T 53 54 (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P 55 56 57 T 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 69 1970 68 'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72. 24 AUGUST 1969 ItCIt Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Chart FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con. B3 Roughly Coincident Indicators (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) (Aug.) P T (May) (Feb.) (July) (Apr.) P P T T Lagging Indicators Investment Expenditures 908070- ;*61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Q (m. rate, ML aoi.) so50 40 J 30 ??0~j 100-) 80- and equipment Safes and business construction (arm. rate, 60 - 40 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 72. AUGUST 1969 25 CYCLICAL INDICATORS Section B Economic Process and Cyclical Timing INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT Leading Indicators (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) P (Aug.) T (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T in business inventories, al industries, Q +20-, 0- -10 J and trade inventories moving avg.-5-termj +20-, +10- 0- -10J t of companies reporting higher inventories 75 25in book vatee. manufacturers' rate, m. dot; WCD moving avgHHermj of materials and supplies +10-, +50- -5-1 100-1 materials, percent of companies 60 days or longer 755025 J 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 73. 26 AUGUST 1969 Section B Chart B4 CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing | INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT—Con. Leading Indicators—Con. (Nov.) (Oct.: p I (July) (Aug.) P T (July) (Apr.) P (May) (Feb.) T P T Inventory Investment and Purchasing - Con. 100 -i 32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower deliveries 75- 50- 25 J 21 Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries (bil. dot.; MCD moving avg.-4-term) 0- _2 J Lagging Indicators 180160140- *71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories (bil. del) 120- 8CH 35 30- 65. BooK value of manufacturers' inventories, finished goods Ibil. dell 25 H 20-1^ o l(/> 15-j I IflJ 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected. Current data for these series are shown on page 73. ItCII AUGUST 1969 27 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Leading Indicators (July) P (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (Aug.) T (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T 22. Ratio, profits (after taxes) to income ongtoathg, *17. Ratio, 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 sssSf V3& 57 writ labor co$lf|»wfaetttiir« («*«: 1957-59=100) 58 :&;«&§>» 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 74. 28 AUGUST 1969 BCII Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con. Roughly Coincident Indicators (July) P (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (Aug.) T (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T 55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities (index: 1957-59=100) Lagging Indicators 0.800.75- 68. Labor cost (cur. del.) per unit of real corporate gross product, Q (dollars) 0.70- 0.65- 125 120 115 *62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1957-59=100) 110 105 100- 95 90 80 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 83 64 65 66 67 68 89 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 74. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ AUGUST 1969 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis !!€!» 29 CYCLICAL INDICATORS Section B Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MONEY AND CREDIT Leading Indicators (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) P (Aug.) T (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T 98. Change in money supply and time deposits (aim. rate, percent; MOD moving avg.-6-term) 09. Change in money supply (am. rate, percent; MCD moving avg,6-term 33. Change to mortgage debt (ami rate, fan. dot.) 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 75. 30 AUGUST 1969 Section B B6 CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing ! MONEY AND CREDIT—Con. Leading Indicators—Con. (Nov.) (Oct.) P T 1948 49 50 51 52 (July) (Aug.) P T 53 54 (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 75. BCD AUGUST 1969 31 CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Section B MONEY AND CREDIT—Con. Roughly Coincident Indicators (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) P (July) (Apr.) P T (Aug.) T (May) (Feb.) P T 93. Free reserves (bil. dol. - Inverted scale) 116. Corporate bond yields {percent) 115. Treasury bond yields (percent) 117. Municipal MM yields [percent] 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 89 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 76. 32 AUGUST 1969 BCII Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MONEY AND CREDIT—Con. Lagging Indicators (July) (Aug.) P T (Nov.) (Oct.) P T 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 (July) (Apr.) P T 55 56 57 58 (May) (Feb.) P T 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 76. ItCII AUGUST 1969 33 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing COMPOSITE INDEXES (Nov.) P (July) P (Oct.) T (Aug.) T (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T - 3 8,10,12,16, | , 23,29,31,113) 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 77. Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates. 1 Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators. 34 AUGUST 1969 BCII Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing Chart B7 I COMPOSITE INDEXES—Con. (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) P (July) (Apr.) P T (Aug.) T (May) (Feb.) P T 120n 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 77. ItCII AUGUST 1969 35 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing NBER SHORT LIST Leading Indicators (July) P (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (Aug.) T (July) (Apr.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T 42 T production workers, manufacturing (hours) *B. New orders, durable goods *10 Contracts anil rs, plant and (index: 1957-59-100) 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on pages 68, 71, and 72. 36 AUGUST 1969 BCII Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing NBER SHORT LIST—Con. Leading Indicators—Con. (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) P (July) (Apr.) P T (Aug.) T *17. Ratio, price toif 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 (May) (Feb.) P T labor sast, 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on pages 73, 74, and 75. BCD AUGUST 1969 37 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing NBER SHORT LIST—Con. Roughly Coincident Indicators (Nov.) (Oct.) P T <-tS| (July) (Aug.) P T 4Pv?:: '- " j v^sC$ 3i*3fV;'V 'V« ,~ ISSJS lllf'l; M'-' 'l$/i?W; (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T : * . -' -X ' ,:'-\' ^\l\ '''£* \'-" ''"' SHI s->: --. - '-" - _^^^ , &h i MWI ill jS' *r *m- ^£*mMWK*jfc^*W s~*^ x^ 1000-, 950900 850 800 750 700 650 800 750 700 650 *205. GNP ii 1958 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bit dot) 47, Industrial production (index:^-59=100) "52. Personal income (ann. rate, bfl. dot *56. Manufacturing and trade sates (bil. dol.) of retail stores p. dol.) total (percent-inverted scale 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 1 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70. 38 AUGUST 1969 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing Chart B8 NBER SHORT LIST—Con. Lagging Indicators (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) P (Aug.) T (July) (Apr.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T rates on short-term business torn, Q (percent) 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on pages 69, 72, 73, 74, and 76. BCII AUGUST 1969 39 ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS Chart Cl (July) P AGGREGATE SERIES (May) P (Apr.) T (Feb.) T 9080expenditures for new plant all Industries, Q 7060- (a) Actual expenditures (ann. rate, bil. dol.) 50- 40- 30- 110(b) Second anticipations as percent of actual [p€rc6Rt| r t . tt,.. • 4 .*|-a"i|*A* 105- B o T.I .Tltl 100- ' 95- 110(c) First anticipations as 105- tit! JJ I 100- 95- 1957 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 1971 Current data for these series are shown on page 78. 40 AUGUST 1969 ItCII Section C ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS AGGREGATE SERIES—Con. (July) P (May) P (Apr.) T (Feb.) T 412* Manufacturers' inventories, total book vilu«,Q [M. dol.) pwcantamsidOTdWgtilesspenart ' of mffliufwitufers' capacity: percent percent considered 1957 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 1971 Current data for these series are shown on page 78. BCJI AUGUST 1969 41 Section C ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS AGGREGATE SERIES-Con. (July) P (May) P (Apr.) T (Feb.) T 60 n of fioi&eftofcts reporting BO change ta faro% income (percent) 50- 40- Percent of households reporting higher faniry income (percent) 30- 1 20- family income (percent) 10- Qj 20 n changes to income of households, Q la10- 's 5J 11 T 10- 9- a) Actual (quarterly) (ann. rate, mil. cars Actual. 2-quarter moving am 1 (c) Anticipations 7 J 110- (d) Anticipations as percent of actual oara {percent] n inJ 105- 100 II 1 959085110q \ 100- , V .-'-X., v--vX 90- < 80- 1957 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 1971 Current data for these series are shown on page 78. 42 AUGUST 1969 BCII Section C Chart C2 DIFFUSION INDEXES lOQ-i Mew outers, manufacturing (441 span)1 75- 50- 25 J 100 ~j manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)' „.>*—».. 75- 50- -1 25- 25 ~; 0446. Hunter of mvtoyee;, mmrtactirtK art trad. (441 span)1 50 »i 1 •>c (i. 1957 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 J 1971 Current data for these series are shown on page 79. i 'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without wrinen permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. AUGUST 1969 43 Section C ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con. (July) P (Apr.) T (May) (Feb.) P T 100 T Selfing prices, manufacturing (4-Q span]1 1 1957 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 1971 Current data for these series are shown on page 79. 'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. 44 AUGUST 1969 ltd* Section C ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con. (July) P (May) (Apr.) T (Feb.) indexes: $J inmiMK expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries (1-Q span) a) Actual expenditures (b) Second anticipations (a) Actual expenditures (c) Ftfst anticipations Freight cartoadings (4-fc span) 480. Change in freight cartoadings (4-Q span) 1957 58 59 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ AUGUST 1969 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis BCII 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 1971 45 OTHER KEY INDICATORS (July) P (Nov.) (Oct) P T (Aug.) T (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T 500. Mewhanrfise trade balance (WI.M;MCD moving avg.-6-terrn) +0.5- -0.5J HL miteiy aid (l^| MCD moving avg.-6-term) 506. Export orders, durabl 512. General sports 1948 49 50 51 52 MCD inovtRg avg.~4 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 81. 46 AUGUST 1969 ItCII OTHER KEY Section D Chart D2 j BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS 520. Liquidity balance basis (Change in U.S. official reserve assets and change in liquid liabilities to all foreigners) {Change it U.S. official reserve assets, and change to ipiM liabilities W certain nonfiquid VabtHties r-16 Excess of receipts (Inflow) Excess of payments (outflow) —12 basis1 (Outflow (-) left scale) 527. Net capital movements, uiffem swtieifteiitA o (outflow (-) tett scate) h-8 -4 250. Balance on goods and services (surpkis (+) right scate) s 4 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 82. Annual totals are used prior to 1960 except for series 520. 1 1ncludes unilateral transfers and errors and omissions. BCII AUGUST 1969 47 Section D OTHER KEY INDICATORS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con. 40 T Major Components, Except Military Grants of Goods and Services-Con. 36- 32- 28- 530. Liquid liabilities to ail foreigners, outstandng at end of period 24- 20- 16- Y 12- 532. Liquid and certain nonfiquid liabilities to foreign mm agencies, outstanding at end of period 4- 24-, resove assets-resente ,^rt||^;i^:if period 20- 16- 12J 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 82. End of year figures are used prior to 1960. 48 AUGUST 1969 BCII Section D OTHER KEY INDICATORS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con. 56n Goods and Services Movements, Except Transfers Under Military Grants Annual fate, billion dollars [ 52- 48- Excess of receipts Excess of payments 44- 40- Goods and services- 3640- 36- 250. Balance on goods and services 32- 28- Merchandise, adjusted- 24- *> S 536 20- 16- 12- Investment income, military sates ana expenditures, and other services8- 4-J 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 82. Annual totals are used prior to 1960. AUGUST 1969 49 Section D OTHER KEY INDICATORS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con. Investment Income, Military Sales and Expenditures, and Other Services Annual rate, bilion dollars Excess of receipts (inflow) Excess of payments (outflow) 12 i 542. Income on U.S. investments abroad 4- 0J 543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S. Si Travel4-- 545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad 0- 544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S. Military sates and expenditures- 547. U.S. military expenditures abroad 4- oJ 546. Military sales to foreigners Transportation and other services— 54S. Payments 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 0J 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Annual totals are used prior to 1960. 50 AUGUST 1969 BCII Section D Chart D2 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con. Capital movements plus Government nonmilitary unilateral transfers Annual rate, billion dollars Excess of receipts (inflow) Excess of payments (outflow) Direct investments- 531. U.S. investments abroad 44 13 0 -< 560. Foreign investments in the U.S. Securities investments565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities 564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities 570. Government grants and capital transactions, net 575. Banking and other capital transactions, net .1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 ' 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Annual totals are used prior to 1960. BCII AUGUST 1969 51 Section D OTHER KEY INDICATORS FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) P (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T (Aug.) T and product accounts, Q(ann. rate, bil.dol.) 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 84. 52 AUGUST 1969 licit Section D OTHER KEY INDICATORS FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con. (Nov.) P (Oct.) T (July) (Aug.) P T (May) (Feb.) (July) (Apr.) P T P T 100-1 9080706050- 87•S 6- % 5- 3- Department obligations, procurement MCD moving avg.-6-term) 2- 1. 61 54- 3- 2- 1. 51 4- 3- 1948 49 50 51 52 53v 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 84. AUGUST 1969 53 Section D OTHER KEY INDICATORS PRICE MOVEMENTS (Nov.) (Oct.) P T 1948 49 50 51 52 (July) P (Aug.) T 53 54 (May) (Feb.) P T (July! (Apr.) P T 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 85. 54 AUGUST 1969 itcn Section D Chart D4 i PRICE MOVEMENTS—Con. (Nov.) (Oct.) P T 1948 49 50 51 52 (July) P (Aug.) T 53 54 (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 85. BCII AUGUST 1969 55 ANALYTICAL MEASURES Chart El ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT (Nov.) (Oct.) P T 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 Current data for these series are shown on page 86. 1 Trend line of 3-1/2 percent per year through middle of 1955 56 (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T (July) (Aug.) P T 55 56 57 from 1st quarter 1952 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 to 4th quarter 1962, 3-3/4 percent from 4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, and 4 percent thereafter. AUGUST 1969 BCD Section E ANALYTICAL MEASURES [Chart E2 ANALYTICAL RATIOS (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) P (Aug.) T 53 54 1948 49 50 51 52 (May) (Feb.) T (July) (Apr.) P T 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 87. IICII AUGUST 196,9 57 Section E ANALYTICAL MEASURES ANALYTICAL RATIOS—Con. (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) (Aug.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) . P T , personal saving to disposable personal income, Q Ratio, nonagricuitural job openings unfilled to number of persons unemployed 856. Real average hourly earnings, production workers, average weekly earnings, nonagricultural kers (1957-59 dollars 857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing, a (percent) 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 these series are shown on page 87. 58 AUGUST 1969 BCD Section E Chart E3 DIFFUSION INDEXES Leading Indicators (July! (Ap r . P' T =May .Fen.* P \ Percent rising 01. Averap workweek, production workers, manufacturing ~ 21 industries (9-mo. span— , 1-mo. span—-) lOO-i D6. New orders, durable goods Industries-36 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—) Oil. Newly approved capital appropriations - 17 industries, NICB (3-0 span~~, 1-0 span.—) 034. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting higher profits - about 1,000 manufacturing corporations (1-Q span) 019. Stock prices, 500 common stocks - 77 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—-) 023. industrial materials prices - 13 industrial materials (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span--) 05. Initial clains, Stats unemployment insurance - 47 areas (percent declining; 9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span---) l^-S 4* 50 51 5? S3 b* f* 56 57 bg 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on pages 88 and 89. AUGUST 1969 59 Section E ANALYTICAL MEASURES DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con. Roughly Coincident Indicators (Nov.) (Oct.) P T 1948 49 50 51 52 (July) P (Aug.) T 53 54 (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 90. 60 AUGUST 1969 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS CONSUMER PRICES (Nov.) (Oct.) P T 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T (July) (Aug.) P T 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 97. AUGUST 1969 61 Section F INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON! INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 80 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 98. 62 AUGUST 1969 BCII Section F Chart 1948 49 F3 | STOCK PRICES 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1970 Current data for these series are shown on page 99. AUGUST 1969 63 NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT Year and quarter 200. Current dollars a. Total (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) b. Difference (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 205. Constant (1958) dollars a. Total c. Percent change at annual rate 210. Implicit price deflator b. Difference c. Percent change at annual (Ann. rate, rate bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) a. Total b. Difference (Index: 1958-100) (Index: 1958=100) c. Percent change at annual rate 1966 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 729.5 743.3 755.9 770.7 +19.5 +13.8 +12.6 +14.8 +10.8 +7.6 +6.8 +8.0 774.2 783.5 800.4 +3.5 +9.3 +16.9 +15.7 835.3 858.7 876.4 892.5 +19.2 668.1 +12.5 +5.9 +5.2 +7.9 +8.0 +3.6 +3.2 +4.8 112.4 113.5 114.5 115.4 +0.9 +1.1 +1.0 +0.9 +3.2 +4.0 +3.6 +3.2 +2.0 +4.8 +8.8 +8.0 666.5 670.5 678.0 683.5 -1.6 +4.0 +7.5 +5.5 -0.8 +2.4 +4.4 +3.2 116.2 116.9 118.1 119.4 +0.8 +0.7 +1.2 +1.3 +2.8 +2.4 +4.0 +4.4 +9.6 693.3 705.8 +9.8 +5.6 +7.2 +4.0 +3.2 120.5 121.7 122.9 124.2 +1.1 +1.2 +1.2 +1.3 +3.6 +4.0 +4.0 +4.4 +1.5 r+1.6 r+5.2 649.1 655.0 660.2 1967 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 816.1 1968 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. +23.4 +17.7 +16.1 +11.2 +8.4 +7.2 712.8 718.5 +7.2 +7.2 r?26.7 +12.5 +7.0 +5.7 1969 First quarter... Second quarter . Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 908.7 r924.8 +16.2 r+16.1 723.1 GROSS NATIONAL 'PRO DUCT-Con. Year and quarter +2.4 125.7 r+2.0 r027.3 +4.8 NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME 215. Per capita 217. Per capita GNP, constant GNP, current (1958) dollars dollars (Ann. rate, dollars) +4.6 r+3.6 (Ann. rate, dollars) 220. National income in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 222. Personal income in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Disposable personal income 224. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 225. Constant (1958) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 226. Per capita, current dollars (Ann. rate, dollars) 227. Per capita, constant (1958) dollars (Ann. rate, dol.) 1966 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter.. 3,720 3,780 3,833 3,895 3,310 3,331 615.0 3,347 3,377 626.9 637.3 3,903 3,940 3,360 3,372 3,400 603.2 453.5 454.7 570.3 580.7 592.9 605.0 499.9 506.0 525.6 461.2 466.1 639.3 646.2 658.5 672.0 615.2 534.4 471.6 688.8 707.4 664.3 515.9 2,549 2,574 2,313 2,313 2,656 2,339 2,356 2,694 2,724 2,760 2,799 2,378 2,394 2,404 2,616 1967 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter.. 4,014 4,080 3,418 4,168 3,459 4,274 4,350 3,513 622.2 634.5 645.9 541.6 550.3 559.S 476.0 479.4 483.7 2,419 1968 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter . 4,418 3,538 3,557 4,488 r4,556 r3,580 724.1 737.3 575.0 587.4 593.4 604.3 492.1 680.1 696.1 711.2 497.4 498.9 502.1 2,869 2,924 2,946 2,991 2,455 2,476 2,477 2,485 724.4 r740.5 r6l0.2 r622.0 r502.6 r506.2 r3,014 r3,065 r2,482 r2,494 1969 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter.. 3,571 751.3 P765.0 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. 64 AUGUST 1969 NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Year and 230. Total in current dollars 231. Total in constant (1958) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) quarter 232. Durable goods, 233. Durable goods, 234. Automobiles total except autos, total in current in current dollars in current dollars dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann, rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 236. Nondurable goods in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 237. Services in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1966 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 457.8 461.9 471.2 474.5 415.3 415.1 421.3 420.7 71.2 68.5 71.3 71.9 44.4 44.5 46.2 46.5 26.8 24.0 25.1 25.4 202.6 206.4 209.6 209.1 183.9 186.9 190.2 193.5 480.9 489.8 495.7 502.6 424.4 430.5 431.9 434.3 70.0 73.5 73.3 75.2 46.9 47.6 47.9 50.0 23.1 25.9 25.4 25.2 213.2 214.4 215.8 216.8 197.7 201.8 206.6 210.6 520.6 530.3 544.9 550.7 445.6 449.0 458.2 457.6 79.5 81.8 85.8 86.3 51.1 52.6 54.1 54.9 28.4 29.2 31.7 31.4 226.1 228.5 233.3 234.3 215.1 220.0 225.8 230.1 562.0 r572.8 462.9 P466.2 88.4 r90.6 57.5 P59.2 30.9 P31.4 238.6 r.242.1 235.0 r240.1 1967 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 1968 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 1969 First quarter... Second quarter . Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS Year 240. Total and quarter (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 241. Nonresident!al fixed investment (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 242. Nonresidential structures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 243. Producers' durable equipment (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 244. Residential structures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 245. Change in business inventories (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1966 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter.. 117.5 122.4 119.6 126.2 78.8 80.3 83.0 84.2 28.6 28.2 29.0 28.2 50.2 52.1 54.0 56.0 27.4 26.0 24.7 22.1 +11.3 +16.2 +11.9 +19.9 113.6 109.4 117.7 123.3 83.3 83.0 83.5 85.0 29.0 27.2 27.8 27.8 54.2 55.8 55.7 57.2 21.4 23.1 26.5 28.8 +9.0 +3.4 +7.8 +9.5 119.4 126.6 125.2 133.9 89.1 86.4 88.1 91.5 29.8 28.3 29.0 30.1 59.4 58.1 59.1 61.4 28.6 30.3 29.9 31.9 +1.6 +7.2 +10.5 135.2 rl37.4 95.3 r97.8 32.3 63.0 r65.7 33.3 r32.7 +6.6 r+6.9 1967 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter.. 1968 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter.. Fourth quarter . +9.9 1969 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter.. NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers^jre for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. ItCII AUGUST 1969 65 NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Q Q FOREIGN TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS Year and quarter GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES IN CURRENT DOLLARS 250. Net exports of goods and services 252. Exports of goods and services 253. Imports of goods and services 260. Total 262. Federal 264. National defense 266. State and local (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. fate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1966 First Quarter Second Quarter. .... Third quarter Fourth quarter +6.2 +5.6 +4.4 +4.9 42.2 42.7 43.7 44.8 36.0 37.1 39.3 39.9 148.0 153.4 160.7 165.2 72.8 75.6 80.5 82.1 55.3 58.5 63.3 65.6 75.2 77.7 80.1 83.0 +5.4 +5.8 +5.6 +3.8 45.8 45.9 46.3 46.7 40.4 40.1 40.7 42.8 174.2 178.5 181.3 186.4 87.8 90.3 91.3 93.5 69.9 71.9 73.0 74.6 86.4 88.1 90.0 92.9 +1.9 +3.4 +3.6 +1.2 47.7 50.7 53.4 50.6 45.9 47.3 49.7 49.4 193.4 198.4 202.5 206.7 96.3 99.0 100.9 101.9 76.1 77.9 78.8 79.3 97.1 99.4 101.7 104.8 +1.5 r+1.6 47.6 r57.1 46.1 r55.5 210.0 r212.9 101.6 100.6 79.0 r78.5 108.5 rl!2.3 1967 First quarter Second quarter. Third quarter. ..... Fourth quarter 1968 First quarter Second quarter. Third Quarter . ... Fourth quarter 1969 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter Qj FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES IN C U R R E N T DOLLARS Year and quarter 270. Final sales (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1966 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter. 271. Change in business inventories (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS IN CURRENT DOLLARS 280. Compensation of employees Nondurable goods Durable goods H 274. Final sales 275. Change in business inventories (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 282. Proprietors' income (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 284. Rental income of persons (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 142.2 142.6 148.1 151.8 +8.2 +10.6 +10.2 +13.2 217.6 220.9 225.3 225.4 +3.1 +5.6 +1.7 +6.7 420.1 430.9 441.4 449.7 62.1 61.2 6l.l 60.8 19.6 19.8 20.1 20.3 151.9 158.3 157.7 160.0 +4.2 +1.5 +4.4 +5.6 230.7 234.2 235.5 235.9 +4.7 +1.8 +3.4 +3.9 456.2 461.1 470.7 481.7 60.8 61.7 62.6 62.3 20.6 20.8 20.9 21.0 166.4 168.9 173.7 176.6 +1.9 +6.8 +5.1 +7.4 246.5 250.4 256.1 256.4 -0.3 +3.1 +2.1 +3.1 495.1 507.0 519.8 532.3 63.2 63.6 64.1 64.1 21.1 21.2 21.2 21.4 181.6 P185.5 +4.8 P^.9 259.7 P264.1 +1.8 pf2.1 546.0 r558.2 64.6 r66.5 21.5 21.6 1967 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1968 First quarter Second quarter — Third quarter Fourth quarter 1969 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. 66 AUGUST 1969 ItCII NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT INCOME COMPONENTS BNATIONAL IN CURRENT DOLLARS-Con. Year and quarter Qj SAVING.IN CURRENT DOLLARS 286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment 288. Net interest 290. Gross saving 292. Personal saving 294. Undistributed corporate pro fits plus inventory valuation adjustment 296. Capital consumption allowances 298. Government surplus or deficit (Ann. rate, bil. dol) (Ann. rate, bil. dol) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. ,rate, bil. dol.) 1966 First Quarter Second quarter. Third quarter Fourth quarter 1967 First quarter Second quarter. Third quarter Fourth quarter 1968 First quarter Fourth quarter 1969 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 81.5 82.1 82.5 83.7 19.9 21.0 21.8 22.8 121.0 126.3 123.5 128.8 29.6 31.2 31.6 37.7 26.2 26.8 26.9 29.6 62.5 63.5 64.4 65.3 +2.7 +4.7 +0.6 -3.8 78.3 78.3 79.1 81.1 23.5 24.3 25.1 25.9 117.5 113.6 119.9 125.6 40.0 37.7 40.7 43.1 24.8 24.1 24.6 25.5 66.8 67.9 69.2 70.4 -14.1 -16.0 -14.6 -13.4 82.5 88.2 90.6 90.3 26.7 27.5 28.4 29.3 120.5 128.8 129.1 135.4 39.9 42.3 33.2 38.0 20.4 24.1 25.6 23.6 71.7 73.0 73.7 74.6 -11.5 -10.8 -3.5 -0.9 89.5 29.8 30.3 138.5 pU2.0 r32.5 r33.3 r22.3 r21.1 75.9 77.2 +7.8 p+10.4 P88.5 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by©. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "rn indicates revised;' p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and aNA"1 not available. ItCIt AUGUST 1969 67 CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS TIMING CLASS Q EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT LEADING INDICATORS ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS Marginal Employment Adjustments Job Vacancies .... Minor Economic Process *1. Average work- *4. Nonagricultural week of production placements, all 1 workers, manufac- industries turing -1 Year and month (Hours) (Thous.) 2. Accession rate, manufacturing1 5. Average weekly mjitiaL claims for unemployment insurance, State programs 2 (Per 100 employees) (Thous.) 3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (Per 100 employees) 49. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled1 46. Index of helpwanted advertising in newspapers (Thous.) (1957-59-100) 1967 41.0 40.3 40.5 512 500 492 4.6 4.3 4.1 196 231 256 1.3 1.5 1.7 395 379 366 189 190 184 April May June 40.5 40.4 40.4 485 481 483 4.2 4.6 4.5 259 236 231 1.5 1.4 1.4 353 351 352 181 174 171 July August September 40.5 40.7 40.8 478 481 4.4 4.4 231 212 217 1.4 1.3 October November December 40.7 40.7 40.7 476 471 4.5 4.5 4.4 220 209 204 1.3 1.2 1.2 358 354 186 187 190 January February March 40.2 40.7 40.8 478 471 481 4.5 4.5 4.1 206 196 194 1.3 1.3 1.3 359 363 371 184 202 April May June 40.1 40.9 40.9 487 475 486 4.7 4.6 4.5 193 195 194 1.1 1.3 1.1 380 394 386 188 187 189 July August. September 40.9 40.7 41.0 520 477 478 4.7 4.6 4.7 189 199 194 1.2 1.2 1.2 375 367 376 185 198 219 October November December 40.9 40.8 40.8 466 454 443 4.8 4.6 4.7 188 190 190 1.2 1.1 1.1 374 372 373 213 222 226 January February March 40.6 40.1 40.9 448 459 431 4.9 4.6 4.6 179 186 184 1.1 1.1 . 1.2 372 375 365 221 230 B>232 April May June 40.8 40.7 40.7 452 427 460 4.9 4.8 P4.9 176 180 201 1.0 1.1 377 387 383 227 217 209 January February March . . . . 169 354 1968 1969 July August September P40.7 . ... P446 fc> 197 (NA) 210 October November December NOTE1 Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are ndicated by |tt>- for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [iS> Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and 1"NA", not available. , ^^ „ . Series that reached their high values prior to 1967 are as follows: Series 1, high value (4-1.6) reached in Feb. 1966: Series 4, high value (586), in May 1962; Series 2, high value (5.2), in Mar. 1966; Series 49, high value (437), in July 1966. 2^Q+Q exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published 1jy source agency. 68 AUGUST 1969 BCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q| EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Con. TIMING CLASS .... Minor Economic Process Comprehensive Employment 48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments Year and month LAGGING INDICATORS ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS- Con. (Ann. rate, bil. man-hours) *41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment survey (Thous.) 42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities, labor force survey (Thous.) *43. Unemployment rate, total 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs *? (Percent) (Percent) 1967 January February March 131.38 130.64 130.73 65,342 65,379 65,459 70, 137 70, 188 69,935 3.7 3.7 3.7 2.3 2.4 April May June 130.36 130.74 131.10 65,469 65,563 65,747 70,144 69,804 70,407 July August September 131.16 131.77 131.98 65,799 66,016 66,003 October November December 131.75 133.02 132.79 1968 January February March April May June ...... July August September October November . .. December Long-Duration Unemployment Comprehensive Unemployment 40. Unemployment rate, married males (Percent) *44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (Percent) 2.6 1.8 1.7 1.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 3.8 3.9 3.9 2.6 2.7 2.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 70,649 70,721 70,929 3.9 3.8 4.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 1.8 1.9 1.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 66,083 66,600 66,734 71,023 71,135 71,293 4.2 3.8 3.7 2.3 2.3 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 131.60 133.29 133.53 66,720 67,165 67,286 71,124 71,566 71,786 3.6 3.7 3,7 2.3 2.3 2.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 133.54 134.21 134.75 67,466 67,550 67,816 71,737 72,0'27 72, 156 3.5 3.0 3.7 2.1 2.2 2.2 1.6 1.6 1.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 135.24 135.57 135.75 67,945 68,088 68,195 72,195 72,222 72,349 3.7 3.5 3.6 2.3 2.3 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 135.89 135.83 136.19 68,427 68,664 68,875 72,477 72,682 72,923 3.6 3.4 3.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 r!37.07 r!37.08 69,199 69,487 69,710 73,477 73,848 74,035 3.3 E>3.3 1.4 1.4 B>i-4 0.4 0.4 3.4 2.1 2.1 2.0 B>0.4 73,941 73,460 73,966 3.5 3.5 3.4 2.0 R>2.0 2.1 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 6J>.fc>7/L qoq 3 6 16 0 5 1969 January February March r 138. 44 138.42 rl39.15 April May June July August September r 139. 39 fiT"*--*. nT3Q #7 69,789 r70,013 r70,270 B-^^rtfO /i.62 |£^>PfU,i4.0<£ 2 « October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are , current low values are indicated by indicated by E>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,, 5,, 14,, 39,, 40,, 43,, 44,, 45,, and 93), . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and"NA", not available. 1 Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency. AUGUST 1969 69 CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS 23 PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE TIMING CLASS .... ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATOR 5 Minor Economic Process Year and month Comprehensive Production *200. Gross na- *205. Gross national product tional product in current dolin 1958 dollars lars (Ann. rate, bil. dot.) 1967 January February March Comprehensive Income *47. Index of industrial production 53. Wages and *56. Manufacsalaries in min- turing and trade ing, manufactur- sales ing, and con- (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) *52. Personal income Comprehensive Consumption and Trade (1957-59=100) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) struction (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 57. Final sales *54. Sales of (series 200 retail stores minus series 245) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 77k. 2 666 [5 158.3 156.7 156.6 612.8 614.9 617.9 162.7 161.4 161.2 88,078 87,323 87,632 765^2 25,828 25,478 25,758 April May June 783.5 6?6! 5 156.7 155.6 155,7 619.3 621.2 626.1 161.2 160.9 161.7 87,656 88,016 89,184 780.*2 25,940 25,966 26,488 July August September 8CXX4 678^0 156.4 158.3 156.8 630.4 635.2 637.8 163.2 165.0 165.1 88,508 89,967 90,113 792! 6 26,325 26,298 26,899 October November December 816.1 683.5 157.2 159.8 162.1 639.0 645.6 653.0 165.0 168.4 170.2 89,072 90,770 92,147 806.6 26,129 26,396 26,545 January February March 835^3 6933 161.2 162.0 163.0 656.3 664.6 93,184 93,758 94,463 833^6 671.9 170.4 173.6 174.3 27,043 27,449 27,996 April May June 858.*7 705 .*8 162.5 164.2 165.8 674.2 680.2 685.9 174.3 177.1 177.9 94,552 96,069 97,423 848.' 8 27,791 28,158 28,320 July August September 876.*4 712.8 166.0 164.6 165.1 691.0 696.1 701.1 179.0 179.7 181.8 98,368 97,083 99,135 869^2 28,674 28,760 28,902 718! 5 166.0 167.5 168.7 706.2 892! 5 183.3 184.6 186.7 99,675 100,142 98,671 882!6 28,697 28,806 28,347 723^1 169.1 170.1 171.4 718.7 908!? 187.1 187.6 190,7 100,137 101,390 101,510 902!l 28,989 29,289 28,916 g>r924*.8 B>r726!7 171.7 172.7 173.9 735.6 r740.0 x-746.1 102,352 rl03,232 rl95.3 £>P104,093 g> r917i9 29,442 r29,386 r29,337 g>pl75.2 B> P752.3 1968 October November December . . . . 1969 January February March April May June July August September 7H.5 716.0 723.9 730.7 192.1 193.1 g> P196.3 (NA) |>p29,481 October November December NOTE' Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by &>• for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14 f 39, 40, 43, 44f 45f and 93), current low values are indicated by ftb> Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; V;anticipated; and "NA", not available. 70 AUGUST 1969 CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing D MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS ....... TIMING CLASS .... LEADING INDICATORS Minor Economic Process Year and month FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT Formation of Business Enterprises New Investment Commitments *12. Index of net 13. Number of new *6. Value of business formation business incorpora- manufacturers' tions new orders, durable goods industries (1957-59-100) (Number) (Bil.dol.) 8. Index of construction contracts, total value1 (1957-59=100) *10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (Bil.dol.) 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Bil.dol.) 24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (Bil. dol.) "(8) 1967 January February March 102.2 103 2 103 3 April May June 105 o July August September 108.4 110.7 110.3 October .... November . . December 1968 January February . . . . March 16,703 23,94 126 5 92 15 987 2L 15 2^ 52. 1 j.o •"O "1/iQ A Ta O.Jo 2L OL 25 ^0 25 77 nog J-JO 6 nr» 6 no 6 ;.n 16 244 103 7 16 760 108 1 17 627 17 799 A lA -\ ci. J-?*4°] £.1. 5 • ( <• rjf) rjf) ' ' *• 16 300 2L 92 "U9 6 165 18,118 25 88 25 18 6 57 °Of A Lt 110.6 112.7 113.8 18 000 18 403 18,168 25 68 25 85 28 06 168 6 166 A LI 113.5 114.7 113.8 17,223 18,014 17,974 26.84 26 81 28.00 159 156 176 6 50 6 67 April May June 112.8 112.7 114.5 18,659 18,796 19,197 27.37 27.17 26.70 146 172 160 6 20 6 62 7 20 _C July August September 119.0 119.1 121.2 19,530 20,011 20,986 26.92 27.33 28.38 187 192 183 6.96 7.85 7.20 rA 59 October ... . November December 1969 January February March 123.9 123.4 125.3 21,394 21,155 20,292 30.28 200 183 8.18 125 2 20,578 22,199 21,353 29.68 191 30.48 29.70 205 177 123.9 123.1 125.6 23,467 23,23C fc>23,711 |T> 30.94 ^^ 30.00 r29.17 183 B> 210 180 (NA) (NA) P30.78 176 g> 125 8 121 2 April May June July August September . 29 32 29 ^A 0J. c fto p.oic 6 51 7 29 7 79 179 fc> 5 .09 no Qrt 5 Oo 0A 5 OG 1« 55 •0^r t •^5 A AA /.0 4 .70 00 5.08 5 17 674 168 5 CY7 p.uy 5 .02 no r A5 • 7/i _C rt/-i 5 oi on r O. 7 5 Or CA 5 .>u 5 A7 *>*H-r qc* 5 O° c oc> 5Oo rp. rji m. 5 /.Q e ;.r 5«*4->> 5 97 5 71 A 03 5 92 6.55 r6 63 A O9 A ^y, 7.98 7.84 7.50 r6.65 6 20 6.51 6.41 8.26 8.01 r7.83 gr^>. p7.48 K> 7.10 6.43 r6.53 p7 81 p6.42 October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Current high values are indicated by B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14 r 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [B>>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and M NA", not available. •""This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. 8 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. K<:U AUGUST 1969 71 CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con. TIMING CLASS .... LEADING INDICATORS-Con. Minor Economic Process New Investment Commitments-Con. Year and month 9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial buildings1 (Mil. sq. ft. floor space) 7. New private nonfarm housing units started (Ann. rate, thous.) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS LAGGING INDICATORS Backlog of Investment Commitments Investment Expenditures *29. Index of new 96. Manufacturers' private housing unfit led orders, units authorized by durable goods local building industries permits (1957-59*100) (Bil. dol.) 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (Bil. dol.) *61. Business expenditures on new pi ant and equipment, total 69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (3) 1967 January February March 49.09 57 84 56 14 1,079 83.1 77 36 1 1*32 78 Q 81 Q 77 02 76 (U April May June 58.2? 54 72 62.30 1 099 1 254 1 214 90 7 75 ftft 76 52 77 ?1 July August September 56.72 61.66 60 45 1 356 1,381 1 415 96 4 99.4 102 3 77 82 77 94 October November December 5#.42 63.17 64.08 1,478 1,567 1,235 106 9 102.2 116.7 78 82 79 13 80 58 20 41 64.51 61.39 66.61 1,430 1,499 1,479 97.2 120.0 121.4 80.49 80.59 81.75 r!9.01 47.09 66.96 66.35 1,562 1,345 1,348 113.7 106.9 107.0 82.24 81.90 80.97 r!8.93 July August September 71.65 66.15 61.59 1,507 1,496 1,570 107.7 107.8 116.4 79.68 80.18 80.57 r!9.44 October November December . . . . 1969 January February March 79.63 69.70 71*47 1,541 1,705 1,492 115.2 119.1 122*3 81*8$ 82.43 84*07 20.02 117.2 123.4 118.7 84.43 84.99 85.16 r20.48 1 067 91 1 97 9 77 Q-Zi. 76 75 Ai £5 on fO.yu rjL 20 42 75 5*3 f 5'sJ rjl Lrj fit-. O f AT en 7/i QO riL ort 20 25 7A A/I 60 90 77 QO 7ft 5ft 20 42 62 70 7A 7Q 77 Q2 7Q QL 64.75 80.77 80.79 80.59 62.60 81.59 80.32 80.86 63.20 80.09 82.40 85.08 65.90 86 15 88 21 85 46 K>68.90 90.00 91.42 90.31 a72.66 ... 88.84 r89.84 |T>p91.78 1968 January February March April May June ... fc>'94.41 69.98 63.50 ft> 1,845 1,664 1,567 April May June 65.82 85.60 79.12 1,548 rl,495 rl,441 R> 125.5 *^ 110.6 rl!2.0 July August September 72,43 pi, 314 plOO.8 October November December fc> 86.46 86.88 r85.91 ... B>p21.54 p86.45 a73.45 (NA) a74.00 NOTE' Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are indicated by [FD>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by {{£:>' Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. 1 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. 2 Data for 1st quarter 1968 to date are not comparable with earlier data. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page 111 72 AUGUST 1969 CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS H| INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT TIMING CLASS .... Minor Economic Process 245. Change in *31. Change in book value of business mfg. and trade inventories1 inventories, total1 (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) bil. dol.) Year and month 1967 January February March LEADING INDICATORS LAGGING INDICATORS Inventory Investment and Purchasing Inventories 37. Purchased materials, companies reporting higher inventories1 (Percent reporting) 20. Change in book value of mfrs.' inventories of mtls.1 and supplies (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 26. Production materials, companies reporting commitments 60 days or longer@3 (Percent reporting) 32. Vendor performance^ companies reporting slower deliveries^ (Percent reporting) 25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries1 *71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, book value 65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book value (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) +9.6 +12.8 +5.7 +5.0 48 45 46 +2.6 +0.4 +0.6 72 67 68 48 51 38 -0.63 -0.34 -0.98 138.25 138.73 139.15 25.43 25.68 25.82 April May June +6.4 +2.9 -0.7 37 40 43 -1.6 -0.4 -0.9 67 66 68 39 36 38 -0.17 +3.1 +0.65 +0.79 139.68 139.92 139.87 26.22 26.41 26.36 July August September +7.*8 +5.6 +6.7 +4.2 40 42 44 +1.4 +0.2 -2.2 61 66 61 41 43 44 140.34 140.90 141.25 26.43 26.61 26.64 October November . December +9^5 +2.6 +13.1 +14.6 % 54 +0.1 +0.6 +0.3 62 63 64 50 51 48 +0.31 +1.45 141.46 142.55 143.77 26.63 26.70 26.81 +l!6 +4.0 +8.6 +4.0 55 53 52 -0.5 +1.2 +0.9 64 61 64 50 55 54 -0.09 +0.10 +1.16 144.11 144.82 145.15 26.97 27.09 27.21 April May June +16.0 +15.9 +8.6 51 55 59 +4.0 +4.7 +1.7 68 64 67 52 52 52 +0.48 +9^9 146.49 147.81 148.52 27.35 27.59 27.64 July August September -1-7.2 +6.5 +10.3 +9.6 59 55 40 +3.5 +2.0 -0.9 68 66 60 56 46 46 149.06 149.92 150.72 27.79 28.15 28.44 -KUX5 +16.8 +9.8 +11.1 42 44 43 +1.9 -2.2 +0.6 62 60 60 52 60 56 +1.32 152.12 152.94 153.86 28.64 28.92 29.13 +6^6 +3.8 +15.0 +12.7 43 47 49 -0.4 -0.4 +4.0 57 58 63 62 61 61 +0.36 +0.56 154.18 155.43 156.49 29.08 29.41 29.61 49 52 50 +1.3 +2.8 -1.1 65 64 66 68 69 70 +0.42 r-0.97 157.57 fj>pl59.20 29.98 30.41 B>30.45 51 (NA) 59 66 P+0.54 (NA) 1968 January February March October November December 1969 January February March April May June July August September .... r+6.*9 . .. +12.9 r+13.5 p+6.1 (NA) +0.50 +0.12 +0.01 +0.88 -0.34 -0.93 -1.29 +0.49 +0.40 +0.54 +1*64 +0.16 +1.30 r 158. 69 (NA) October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Current high values are indicated by E>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93)f current low values are indicated by fc>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are7 included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA W , not available. 1 Series that reached their high values prior to 1967 are as follows: Series 2^5, high value (+19.8) reached in 4th quarter 1966; Series 31, high value (+20.0), in June 1966; Series 37, high value (63), in Nov. 1964; Series 20, high value (+5.7), in Aug. 1966; Series 26, high value (75), in Oct. 1966; Series 32, high value (86), in Mar. 1966; Series 25, high value (+1.82), in Sept. 1966. BCII AUGUST 1969 73 CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Qj PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS TIMING CLASS .... Minor Economic Process Year and month LEADING INDICATORS Sensitive Com- MOCK ~tnrl. Prices modity Prices *23. Index of industrial materials 1 prices® Profits and Profit Margins *19. Index of *16. Corpostock prices, rate profits1 500 common after taxes stocks® (1957-59=100) (1941-43=10) (Ann. ratet bil. dol.) 22. Ratio of profits to income originating, corporate,1 all indus. (Percent) 1967 January February . March 106 8 105 2 102 5 84.45 87 ^6 89 42 46 l April May June 100 1 99 6 99 8 90 96 92 59 91 43 46 4 98.3 98.1 97.8 93 01 94.49 95.81 47.0 11.7 97.7 99.1 100.1 95.66 92.66 95.30 49.9 99.8 99.5 100.1 95.04 90.75 89.09 July August September October November December 1968 January February March. April May June 9£ 1 96 1 95 £ 95 67 97 87 100 W July August September 94 4 100 30 October . . November December 1969 January February March April May June July August September 9A ft 98 11 QA 70.1 .L -i fyi 07 c ~\rp. nf. i nn q i nn n Ifft A 106 3 106 9 1OQ ? 110 4 111 6 112 4 3 -| -| c r\ -ir>c U-^T rjA 15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all mfg. corp/ (Cents) im ?£ i HA Ap 58. Index of wholesale prices, mfd. goods ® *62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, mfg. (1957-59=100) o 701 101 4 100 8 100 3 106 0 106 0 106 0 106 2 106 3 106 6 o 702 4.9 100 3 100.2 99.6 106 0 106.3 106.5 106 8 106.8 107.1 o 709 106 5 106 6 107 5 12.1 5.1 100.0 100.2 100.9 106.8 107.1 107.4 107.1 107.3 107.6 0.712 107.1 107.1 106.6 47.9 11.5 5.1 99.8 99.7 100.0 107.8 108.3 108.6 108.1 108.7 108.9 0.719 108.3 109.0 108.9 100 0 49 7 11 4 5 0 108 8 108 6 108 8 109 1 109 1 109 4 0 718 108 8 108 9 ino o 109 7 1O9 *5 i no.yo ±uy o 722 50 o 11 9 11 2 5 0 5 1 99 *5 99 8 99 8 98 ^ Qrt -i Vo. J. «n A 2-L.O 11 y -L 5•1 1O9 7 110 0 in9 9 i in o i in ^ i in ^ 100 2 110 9 in 4 m m 100 0 112 0 112 2 99 6 100 1 112 1 112 2 1 12 2 112 4 11^? g 9A 5 9ft ft Qft 70. 7 f 99 9 ET>^».r£52 2 n*)! 6 rll ? pll 0 5 0 (K*\ VJMAy QI •ni nn i rj-t 55. Index of wholesale prices, indus. commod.® 106 4 106 4 106 3 5 0 rlOO 1 94. /I ic 95.4:> Unit Labor Costs 68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross prod. (1958 dol.), nonfin. corp. (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (Dollars) 99 1 A 3 QC Comprehensive Wholesale Prices 105 8 106 0 106 0 ; <> 102 04 101 46 99 ?0 LAGGING INDICATORS 102 1 101 9 101 2 no o; »,n *17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost index, mfg.1 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 11 O 1 6T*»*«^n1 197 U <^.pj_ui. ^ 104 2 1 OA A -\r\c n 10A 7 105 5 106 3 109 1 109 7 109 6 109 9 111 4 110 n O • TZ? (3<- m7 m /; O 7A5 m 110 n 1 -| o o q 7 vn 2 e 112 2 m q n? 7 u—5»nO 757 tr^>riiq i 11 q ^ J.J..5O d-»^~.1 1 q c |[^>pJLLj5 . ;) •nl iq .nU plljj October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are indicated by fii>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [tb>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r n indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and"NA", not available. Series that reached their high values prior to 1967 are as follows: Series 23, high value (123.5) reached in Mar. 1966; Series 22, high value (13.9), in 1st quarter 1966; Series 15, high value (5.8), in 1st quarter 1966; Series 17, high value (105.2), in July 1966. 2Average for August 5, 12, and 19. 3Average for August 20, 21, and 22. 74 AUGUST 1969 BCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q| MONEY AND CREDIT LEADING INDICATORS TIMING CLASS .... Minor Economic Process Credit Difficulties Flows of Money and Credit Year and month 98. Change in money supply and time deposits 85. Change in U.S. money Supply (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 8 Revised 1967 January February March 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by fin. inst. and life insurance companies (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) *113. Net change . 112. Change in 110. Total pribusiness loans1 vate borrowing in consumer installment debt (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, mil. dol.) 14. Current lia- 39. Delinquency bilities of bus- rate, 30 days ness failures® and over, total installment loans (Mil. dol.) (Percent) 2 Revised -0 72 -i-9 77 +12 42 +10 20 BT^>. T-LM-.;><. +14 52 fL-"-^ +13 56 +10 56 +9 72 +10 69 April May June +5 28 +13 68 +14.28 -4 80 +13 20 +11.04 +12 67 +16 . 97 +1 08 +2 28 +3 84 July August September +14 16 +12.24 +8.04 +12 96 +8 04 +1.32 +17 75 +21 61 +21.20 +3 08 +4 78 +3 76 +16 09 October November December +7.68 +7.68 +6.24 +7.32 46.00 +2.64 +19 . 82 +21.32 +20.33 +3.79 +4.69 +4.31 +5 36 +2.66 +8 39 January February March +5 28 +4.92 +7.44 +6 60 +2.64 +5.28 +20 30 +19.27 +19 . 72 +L 79 +8 83 +7.46 +n L7 -2 39 +3 78 April May June +3.84 +8.04 +6.36 +5.28 +12.96 +9.00 +19.07 +21.62 r+18.14 +7.69 +8.78 +8 59 July August September +13 68 +13.92 +6.84 §r>- +13 44 +6.36 -3.72 +17 75 +18.28 +18.88 October November December 1969 +11.76 +12.84 +10.92 +5.64 +11.28 +7.44 +20.39 +21.68 ST^> +25.37 -2.76 -3.60 +0.60 +5.52 +1.80 +1 20 +4 20 -2 40 -0 36 +9 &A. -0 60 +4 92 •n 'sA P 7f OD rvi-^ in P+2./4.U -4-15 31 +2 42 +1 42 +2 84 4-7 ("Mi —0 55 60 804 +6 83 An #£/, +8 09 -9 19 -2 15 1 A"2 119 ^? _i_Q OC +1 63 IDA 17 T T O y,c 103 82 ~\ 9O no 07 7J*J( 104 64 1 T2 72 re AA OAA 108 90 i A«; 93 9A. 76,936 81 63 69 98 1 66 195 Zi.5 1 7A 68 612 1OA /.q 79 60 88 59 1 51 +19.57 +2.09 +5 78 69,144 80.11 91.41 74 66 +10 28 +11.21 +8.58 +14 02 -4 25 +4 55 85 172 |r*> +11.36 +10.01 +9.30 +10.70 +11.27 +14.10 Et^> r93 , 040 +20.90 +23 . 66 +20 09 +7.69 +9.58 +7 75 +17 10 +8 39 +5 35 r85 680 +21 96 r+19 40 p+22 61 +10 15 +16 16 +9 08 +7 25 •pxn nnn 1968 January February March April May June July August September . . . f^JMA; MA^ -4-Q 12 +9 5A ^JMA; f»T* \ YVl 9 7^ p+<£. rA- 1.59 1 57 90 27 65 77 58 65 1*56 65 38 !!"!>• 1 A.7 !(!> 5£ 65 83 41 1 71 75 03 89 99 84 12 lift 7A no £n 91 Q9 1 51 i An (NA*J T 1 O y *7 lIJC.4f .- October November December . NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are indicated by B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14, 39, 40, 43, 44r 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [H>>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r ff indicates revised; "pn, preliminary; V, estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available. 1 This series reached its high value (+21.11) in July 1966. 3 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. BCU AUGUST 1969 75 CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q| MONEY AND CREDIT-Con. ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS TIMING CLASS .... Minor Economic Process 93. Free^ reserves® (Mil. dol.) Outstanding Debt Money Market lnterest Rates Reserves Year and month LAGGING INDICATORS 114. Treasury 116. Corporate 115. Treasury 117. Municipal 66. Consumer bill rate© bond yields© bond yields© bond yields© installment debt (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) (Mil. dol.) *72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks (Mil. dol.) Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages 118. Mortgage *67. Bank rates on short- yields, resiterm business dential © loans, 35 cities© (Percent) (Percent) 1967 January February March -16 -4 +236 4.76 4.55 4.29 5.53 5.35 5.55 4.40 4.47 4.45 3.54 3.52 3.55 76,191 76,309 76,546 60,936 61,138 61,592 6ii3 6.62 6.46 6.35 April May June +175 +269 +297 3.85 3.64 3.48 5.59 5.90 6.06 4.51 4.76 4.86 3.60 3.89 3.96^ 76,636 76,826 77,146 62,345 62,209 62,580 5.*95 6.29 6.44 6.51 July August September +272 +298 +268 4.31 4.28 4.45 6.06 6.30 6.33 4.86 4.95 4.99 4.02 3.99 4.12 77,403 77,801 78,114 62,911 62,817 63,246 5.*95 6.53 6.60 6.63 October November December +160 +270 +107 4.59 4.76 5.01 6.53 6.87 6.93 5.19 5.44 5.36 4.30 4.34 4.43 78,430 78,821 79,180 63,592 64,053 65,102 5^96 6.65 6.77 6.81 +144 +38 -315 5.08 4.97 5.14 6.57 6.57 6.80 5.18 5.16 5.39 4.29 4.31 4.54 79,579 80,315 80,937 65,363 65,734 66,063 6.*36 6.81 6.78 6.83 April May June -413 -326 -341 5.36 5.62 5.54 6.79 7.00 7.02 5.28 5.40 5.23 4.34 4.54 4.50 81,578 82,310 83,026 67,446 67,306 67,702 6.84 6.94 (NA) 7.52 July August September -226 -190 -132 5.38 5.10 5.20 6.91 6.54 6.69 5.09 5.04 5.09 4.33 4.21 4.38 83,883 84,817 85,532 68,178 68,695 69,225 6.89 7.42 7.35 7.28 October November December 1969 January February .. March -167 -245 -310 5.33 5.49 5.92 6.88 7.00 7.28 5.24 5.36 5.66 4.49 4.60 4.82 86,479 87,313 88,088 70,264 71,536 72,346 6!6l 7.29 7.36 7.50 -480 -596 -701 6.18 6.16 6.08 7.29 7.33 7.76 5.74 5.86 6.05 4.85 4.98 5.26 88,729 89,527 90,173 73,410 74,698 74,674 7^32 (NA) 7.99 8.05 -844 g>-l,102 r-1,064 6.15 6.08 6.49 7.54 7.62 8.04 5.84 5.85 6.05 5.19 5.33 B> 5.76 90,933 _ 76,659 91,779 fi>77,176 77,008 B>92,574 B> 7*86 8.06 8.06 8.35 p-1,095 B>7.00 |£>8.06 B>6.07 5.75 1968 January February . . March , April May June July August September (NA) P76,687 E> 8.36 October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are indicated by Bi>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,, 5,, 14,, 39,, 40,, 43,, 44,, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. 76 AUGUST 1969 CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing Q COMPOSITE INDEXES Year and month 810. Twelve leaders, reverse trend adjusted1 (series 1,4, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19,23,29,31, 113) 820. Five coinciders, estimated aggregate economic activity (series 41, 43, 47, 52, 56) 830. Six laggers (series 44, 61, 62, 67, 71, 72) (1963=100) (1963=100) (1963=100) Leading indicator subgroups 814. Capital 813. Marginal employment ad- investment commitments justments (series 1,4, 5) 2 (series 6, 10, 12, 29) (1963=100) (1963=100) 815. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 23, 25, 31,37) 2 (1963=100) 816. Profitabil- 817. Sensitive financial flows ity (series 16, (series 33, 85, 17, 19)2 112, 113) (1963=100) (1963=100) 1967 January February March... 124.2 123.1 123.3 141.2 340.9 141.5 150.0 149.5 149.7 103.8 100.2 99.1 103.1 103.3 103.4 103.2 101.6 100.7 113.8 113.6 113.8 95.8 97.1 97.9 April May June 123.6 124.0 126.1 141.4 141.3 142.3 149.8 149.6 150.3 98.2 98.1 99.8 104.5 105.5 107.9 99.5 100.2 100.2 114.3 114.4 113.8 95.5 98.4 99.8 July August. . September 126.6 128.7 128.6 143.1 144.5 143.7 150.6 150.4 151.4 98.7 100.6 101.2 107.4 109.3 108.9 99.9 100.3 99.5 114.5 114.7 115.0 100.3 98.7 97.6 October November December 129.9 131.4 133.8 143.2 146.8 149.0 152.0 152.9 154.8 100.6 101.0 101.3 109.8 110.1 112.5 100.9 102.0 104.2 115.6 115.6 116.5 99.7 100.0 99.3 1968 January February March 132.1 134.4 134.8 149.9 151.7 152.9 157.2 159.0 159.7 100.3 101.5 101.8 110.4 112.6 113.0 102.0 102.3 102.8 115.4 114.0 114.1 100.5 100.4 100.6 April May June 135.0 136.0 137.2 153.7 154.9 156.3 162.4 163.7 164.4 100.8 101.9 102.4 111.3 111.1 112.2 102.7 101.8 100.9 116.0 116.5 117.4 102.6 102.8 101.7 July August September 139.2 139.1 140.6 157.3 157.8 159.0 164.1 166.7 167.7 104.0 101.4 102.3 113.8 U4.9 116.1 100.1 101.6 100.1 117.4 115.8 116.7 104.3 101.5 r99.6 October November December 143.9 143.5 '144.7 160.2 162.1 163.0 168.6 170.8 173.7 101.8 101.0 100.5 118.8 117.6 119.1 102.2 102.0 102.9 117.8 118.7 rl!9.0 rl03.7 104.3 §p> rl04.5 January February March r!44.5 rl47'.Q r!45.8 164.3 166.0 167.0 176.4 179.1 181.6 100.9 100.0 100.5 119.0 119.9 117.9 102.0 104.5 104.4 rl!8.5 rl!9.2 rl!8.5 r!02.6 r!02.6 rlOO.3 April ... May June B> 148.5 r!48.1 r!48.2 167.7 169.0 r!70.8 183.5 r!85.8 r!86.6 101.6 100.1 100.6 B>119.9 117.9 i-117.6 106.0 r!05.9 r!04.2 rl!8.5 rl!9.6 rl!7.7 rl04.2 101.6 P102.7 P147.6 g>pl?1.6 g>P186.8 plOO.2 PH7.2 p!06.3 pll6.5 1969 July August September October November December (NA) . .. . ... NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are indicated by [j£>>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 1 4 , 3 9 , 4 0 , 4 3 , 4 4 , 4 5 , and 93), current low values are indicated by [H>>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*)are included in the 1966 N BE R "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and *NA", not available. 1 Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators. 2 Series that reached their high values prior to 1967 are as follows: Series 813, high value (107.9) reached in March 1966; Series 815, high value (110.l) reached in March 1966; Series 816, high value (120.1) reached in February 1966. KCII AUGUST 1969 77 ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS AGGREGATE SERIES Year and quarter 61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment 410. Manufacturers' sales, total value c. First b. Second anticipations as anticipations as percent of actual percent of actual a. Actual expenditures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) (Percent) (Percent) 412. Manufactur- 414. Condition ers' inventories, of manufacturers' total book value inventories: percent considered high less percent considered low (Percent) (Bil. dol.) 416. Adequacy 435. Index of of mfrs.' capac- consumer sentiment ity: percent considered inadequate less percent considered (First quarter excessive (Percent) 1966=100) 1966 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 58.00 60.10 61.25 62.80 98.6 99.2 100.6 99.7 97.8 98.0 100.7 101.2 131.2 134.0 135.3 137.5 70.0 72.7 75.5 78.1 11 14 19 26 47 45 46 42 100.0 95.7 91.2 88.3 61.65 61.50 60.90 62.70 101.5 100.1 102.6 99.0 102.9 101.2 103.1 99.9 135.0 135.6 137.4 140.7 80.1 81.1 81.7 82.8 30 29 23 22 40 40 41 38 92.2 94.9 96.5 92.9 64.75 62.60 63.20 65.90 100.1 103.2 102.7 102.0 100.5 102.7 104.5 145.2 349.5 152.7 156.6 83.8 85.6 87.1 88.6 22 22 21 16 35 35 40 42 95.0 92.4 92.9 92.1 68.90 a72.00 a73.45 a74.00 104.0 (NA) 103.3 (NA) 159.2 al6l.2 al65.3 90.3 a92.8 a95.1 18 (NA) 43 (NA) 95.1 91.6 1967 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 1968 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 98.9 1969 First quarter... Second quarter . Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. AGGREGATE SERIES-Con. Year and quarter 420. Family income of households compared to a year ago, households reporting-- 425. Mean probability of substantial changes in family income of households 430. a. Actual a. No change b. Higher income in income (Percent) (Percent) c. Lower income (Percent) a. Increase in income (Percent) b. Increase c. Decrease (quarterly) less decrease in income (Percent) (Percent) (Ann. rate, mil, cars) Household purchases of new cars 2-quarter moving average b. Actual (Ann. rate, mil, cars) c. Anticipated (Ann. rate, mil, cars) d. Anticipated as percent of actual (Percent) 7.4 7.6 7.6 96 92 92 7.8 7.6 7.9 8.3 99 92 1967 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter.. 52.4 55.2 53.9 54.2 35.4 32.9 34.2 33.3 11.2 11.0 11.0 11.6 52.3 47.5 48.1 51.2 36.0 40.9 40.3 38.0 11.1 10.9 11.0 10.1 16.0 15.8 17.4 16.2 10.1 9.9 11.2 10.2 52.9 53.0 50.8 36.4 35.9 37.3 10.0 10.5 10.8 19.3 18.3 18.4 16.7 16.5 18.1 18.6 7.3 7.5 6.8 6.8 7.4 7.4 7.1 6.8 5.9 5.9 6.2 6.0 7.4 7.9 8.7 7.8 7.1 7.7 8.3 8.3 13.8 12.5 11.9 11.2 5.5 5.8 6.5 5.5 8.1 8.4 7.9 8.3 11.3 12.0 13.0 5.2 6.1 5.6 1968 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter.. Fourth quarter.. 1969 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter . 1970 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter.. NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. 78 AUGUST 1969 ItCII ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS DIFFUSION INDEXES Year and quarter D440. New orders, manufacturing1 Actual D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade1 D446. Number of employees,1 manufacturing and trade Anticipated Actual Anticipated Actual Anticipated Actual Anticipated D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade1 (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 88 88 84 82 86 88 88 84 82 82 78 76 84 86 84 82 88 88 85 82 90 90 86 65 66 63 62 62 63 63 62 71 72 69 72 82 82 80 81 65 65 64 69 75 74 76 76 71 70 72 74 80 82 82 82 58 58 58 58 60 60 60 60 78 78 79 80 80 83 82 81 70 73 72 74 74 80 78 73 79 82 82 84 82 86 86 84 57 60 58 60 60 60 58 60 81 (NA) 82 85 83 70 (NA) 78 79 77 80 (NA) 59 (NA) 60 60 60 1966 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 1967 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 1968 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 1969 First quarter... Second quarter . Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 88 86 DIFFUSION INDEXES--Con. D450, Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade1 Year and quarter Actual Anticipated (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 74 74 73 74 66 68 69 69 68 66 65 64 Selling prices D460. Manufacturing and tradei Actual Anticipated D462. Manufacturing1 Actual D464. Wholesale trade1 D466. Retail trade1 Anticipated Actual Anticipated Actual (4-Q span) Anticipated (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 74 74 80 78 66 69 74 70 70 72 78 76 65 68 72 68 78 76 82 78 68 72 76 72 78 78 84 80 63 70 76 75 65 66 63 62 72 72 76 78 75 72 70 72 70 70 72 73 74 72 68 70 74 74 80 82 76 73 69 74 74 80 84 87 76 76 72 78 68 70 70 63 66 67 66 78 80 81 84 76 79 78 78 74 76 78 80 74 76 75 76 81 82 82 85 78 82 78 78 88 88 88 92 81 84 86 87 71 (NA) 66 68 66 84 (NA) 78 80 80 82 (NA) 75 79 78 85 (NA) 79 80 80 91 (NA) 84 84 84 (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 1966 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter.. 1967 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter.. 1968 First quarter... Second quarter, Third quarter.. Fourth quarter . 1969 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter.. NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a*, anticipated; and "NA", not available. is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. BUI AUGUST 1969 79 ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS Q DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con. Year and quarter D61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries a. Actual expenditures (1-Q span) a. Actual carloadings c. First anticipations b. Second anticipations (1-Q span) D480. Freight carloadings ® (1-Q span) 480. Change in freight carloadings® b. Anticipations (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (Thous.of cars-4-Q span) 1966 First quarter Second quarter. Third quarter. Fourth quarter 83.3 83.3 55.6 75.0 62.5 71.9 37.5 65.6 71.9 71.9 75.0 73.7 73.7 57.9 52.6 73.7 89.5 84.2 78.9 +28 4-18 +21 +1 55.6 30.6 33.3 61.1 50.0 41.7 44.4 50.0 53.1 52.8 58.3 44.4 42.1 31.6 10.5 42.1 78.9 52.6 78.9 73.7 -51 -88 -130 -88 66.7 38.9 55.6 55.6 63.9 55.6 69.4 83.3 63.9 47.2 80.6 55.6 31.6 68.4 68.4 (NA) 73.7 63.2 73.7 68.4 -16 +29 +52 -9 83.3 (NA) 83.3 75.0 72.2 50.0 69.4 78.9 89.5 84.2 -9 -10 p-124 56.2 1967 First quarter Second quarter. .... Third quarter Fourth quarter 1968 First quarter Second quarter. Third quarter. • • . • . Fourth quarter 1969 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. 80 AUGUST 1969 BCII OTHER KEY INDICATORS Q| FOREIGN TRADE 500. Merchandise trade balance (series 502 minus series 512) Year and month (Mil. dol.) 1967 January February March April May June 502. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) +322 +366 +359 2,639 2,582 _|J,"IO 2 608 2,549 2 582 +A.32 +398 2,524 July August September +421 +399 2 601 2^566 2,597 October November December +l6l 4-275 +L84 2,415 2,671 2,677 i qcn 1968 January. February . . . . March April May June October November December 512. General imports, total (1957-59-100) (Mil. dol.) 235 196 252 2,317 2,216 2,166 793 215 220 218 2,198 2,118 2,184 1,005 961 Q07 OT Q A#7 pqn <?U op;, apn #71 oy J. QOq i ipft 2 ftIA 2 77*5 QOQ 1 007 -1 ^O 2 A. 39 1 314 O-L 2 ,-L4P -1 Qrt 2 ,-L70 OCC> p pry, <Oo O<>). O/f ore ^5P on c <S±p 260 pep 2,855 917 2LL -i 5 2,740 2,870 1 047 989 2?7 223 2,858 2,950 3,211 Q1L. 246 988 2/L*! qq +-L-3-3 i nr\ +9AD _~I05 +#Q +70 2,631 2,972 2,977 Qpq 2,245 pqn +251 -4-1 . . 508. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery 920 855 904 +184 +7# July August September 506. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except motor vehicles and parts pc;A T J C p OQ£ p /.QQ 2,687 2,592 2,588 /r\t 2 ,504 2,755 2 , r7QO ( 7* 2 ,*7OC W 2rti7O ,or<i QCT 2 ,v:>-L 1 268 p/,y. 925 pop <.J4. 1 082 <57 o VUo on& <i, 2 m ft poo 2 ,rroZ OO rtrto 2 ,00j 1969 January February March +75 -359 +215 2,093 2,297 3,196 834 242 1,391 1,118 260 222 248 April May June +178 +16 +25 3,355 3,292 3,213 1,110 rl,222 pl,329 Juiv August September +inA 3,172 CNA') r254 p285 (Nb} \NAJ p Ace 2 Q£>-1 q -177 ^,J-f ( 3P 7^. ,<i^O 3 Iftft 3,066 October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. ItCII AUGUST 1969 81 OTHER KEY INDICATORS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS Year and quarter 250. Balance on goods and services, excluding military grants U.S. balance of payments 520. Liquidity balance basis 522. Official settlements basis (Mil. dol.) Net capital movements plus unilateral transfers and errors and omissions 525. 1Liquidity balance basis (Mil. dol.) 527. Official settlements basis2 (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil, dol.) 1966 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. -600 -24 -426 -307 -344 -110 +481 +239 1,558 1,398 1,100 1,223 -2,158 -1,422 -1,526 -1,530 -1,902 -1,508 -619 -495 -330 -1,031 -1,633 -1,711 -719 -71 -917 1,361 1,451 1,404 961 -1,856 -1,781 -2,435 -2,649 -3,072 -2,170 -1,475 -1,878 -564 -51 -162 +870 -379 +1,553 +97 +368 471 841 909 301 -1,035 -892 -1,071 +569 -850 +712 -812 +67 P365 (NA) P-2069 (NA) (NA) -984 1967 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 1968 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 1969 First quarter... Second quarter . Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. x-1,699 p-3,792 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con. Year and quarter 530. Liquid liabilities to to all foreigners3® 534. U.S. 532. Liquid official and certain nonliquid lia- reserve bilities to assets4 @ foreign official agencies3® (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) Goods and services movements, excluding transfers under military grants Income on investment, military Goods and services Merchandise, adjusted * transactions, other serv., total 252. Exports 253. Imports 536. Exports 537. Imports (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 540. Exports (Mil. dol.) 541. Imports (Mil. dol.) 1966 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter.. 28,738 28,819 29,432 29,779 16,004 16,305 15,797 16,043 15,026 14,958 14,876 14,882 10,562 10,667 10,936 11,196 9,004 9,269 9,836 9,973 7,218 7,194 7,413 7,564 6,027 6,165 6,595 6,676 3,344 3,473 3,523 3,632 2,977 3,104 3,241 3,297 28,990 29,620 31,211 33,119 16,295 17,424 17,819 19,402 13,855 14,274 14,649 14,830 11,461 11,484 11,577 11,667 10,100 10,033 10,173 10,706 7,688 7,723 7,669 7,601 6,660 6,465 6,542 7,154 3,773 3,761 3,908 4,066 3,440 3,568 3,631 3,552 32,482 32,574 33,576 33,692 18,407 16,994 17,493 18,576 13,926 14,063 14,634 15,710 11,934 12,668 13,344 12,653 11,463 11,827 12,435 12,352 7,941 8,395 8,879 8,383 7,817 8,131 8,566 8,458 3,993 4,273 4,465 4,270 3,646 3,696 3,869 3,894 P35,056 (NA) Pl6,913 (NA) Pl5,758 (NA) pll,890 (NA) P11525 (NA) 7,474 P9,590 7,577 P9,619 P4,416 (NA) P3,948 (NA) 1967 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter.. 1968 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter.. Fourth quarter . 1969 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter.. NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®, Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; M e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available; 2 3 ^•Series 520 minus series 250. Series 522 minus series 250. Amount outstanding at the end of quarter. ^Reserve 5 position at the end of quarter. Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports). 82 AUGUST 1969 ItCII OTHER KEY INDICATORS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con. Income on investment, military transactions and other services (components of series 540 and 541) Year and quarter Income on investments Travel 542. U.S. invest- 543. Foreign ments abroad investments in the U.S. (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) Transportation and other services Military transactions 544. Receipts 546. Sales under 547. Military 545. Payments from foreign trav- by U.S. travelers military conexpenditures tracts elers in the U.S. abroad abroad (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 548. Receipts from (Mil. dol.) 549. Payments for (MiI. dol.) 1966 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 1,482 1,557 1,573 1,640 479 503 569 591 379 389 411 411 644 676 666 671 198 219 202 210 877 925 975 987 1,285 1,308 1,337 1,371 977 1,000 1,031 1,048 1,612 1,580 1,801 1,879 584 591 580 607 416 391 416 423 701 841 9U 739 333 335 239 332 1,085 1,075 1,106 1,112 1,412 1,455 1,452 1,432 1,070 3,061 1,031 1,094 1,771 1,973 2,040 1,917 671 742 770 749 440 424 450 456 763 732 792 735 305 353 406 364 1,102 1,116 1,U3 1,169 1,477 1,523 1,569 1,533 1,110 1,106 1,164 1,241 P2075 (NA) p894 (NA) P508 (NA) P791 (NA) P416 (NA) pl,198 (NA) Pl,417 (NA) pl,065 (NA) 1967 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 1968 First quarter... Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. 1969 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter... Fourth quarter.. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con. Capital movements plus Government nonmilitary unilateral transfers Year and quarter Direct investments 560. Foreign investments in the U.S. (Mil. dol.) Securities investments 561. U.S. investments abroad (Mil. dol.) 564. Foreign purchases 565. U.S. purchases of U.S. securities of foreign securities (Mil. dol.) (Mi I. dol.) 570. Government grants and capital transactions, net (Mil. dol.) 575. Banking and other capital transactions, net (Mil. dol.) 1966 First quarter... Second quarter • Third quarter.. Fourth quarter.. 52 38 -113 110 728 934 917 1,060 173 520 107 109 322 80 87 -7 -1,063 -1,054 -789 -825 118 446 325 378 64 70 12 102 717 533 947 956 133 329 520 34 223 266 476 301 -1,121 -955 -961 -1,174 462 467 -329 -199 251 5 23 41 472 1,009 1,262 283 839 1,116 1,115 1,290 3H 164 337 455 -977 -359 -788 -366 230 245 96 577 p213 (NA) P776 (NA) 1,372 P310 P325 (NA) P-874 (NA) P-94 (NA) 1967 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter.. Fourth quarter.. 1968 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter . 1969 First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter .. Fourth quarter.. NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p" preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. ItCII AUGUST 1969 83 OTHER KEY INDICATORS Qj FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Receipts and expenditures Year and month 601. Federal 600. Federal surplus (+) or receipts, nadeficit (-) , na-tional income and product tional income accounts and product accounts (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) nil. don Defense indicators 602. Federal 264. National expenditures, defense purnational income chases and product accounts (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 616. Defense Department obligations, total, excluding military assistance 621. Defense Department obligations, procurement 647. New or648. New orders, defense ders, defense products indus- products tries (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) 625. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and institutions (Bil.dol.) (Mil. dol.) 1967 January February March -12.0 147.5 159.5 69.9 6,518 6,595 6,343 2,296 2,140 1,903 3.01 3.32 3.07 3,364 3,930 3,034 April May June -13.2 148.3 I6l!4 71.9 6,211 7,732 6,891 1,754 2,480 2,290 3.17 4.04 3.93 3,026 4,040 3,566 July August September -13 !i 152 !s 165 !3 73.*6 5,928 7,003 7,479 1,633 1,925 2,958 3.60 2.99 3.36 3,545 3,690 3,720 October November December -12^3 156 [4 168!8 74!6 7,449 6,565 6,331 2,735 2,173 1,846 3.98 3.64 4.36 3,626 3,308 3,479 -e!i 165.'? 174!l 76!l 7,033 7,615 6,208 2,360 2,865 1,985 3.51 3.86 5.0? l.*60 1.31 2,887 3,445 3,124 April May June -9^5 170.8 180.3 7?!9 6,765 7,441 6,929 2,161 2,299 2,077 4.43 4.01 2.96 1.47 2.27 2.06 3,488 4,203 3,06? July August September -2.B 181 [4 184!2 78!8 7,544 7,659 7,989 2,323 2,804 3,234 3.67 3.91 3.55 1.91 2.36 1.92 3,937 3,173 3,836 -6!i IB?! 3 187^4 79!i 7,520 7,286 6,603 2,298 2,520 1,959 4.41 3.89 4.20 2.38 1.95 2.31 3,903 3,378 3,821 r+9*.6 198 !l rl88!5 79!6 7,852 7,216 6,303 2,307 2,207 1,542 4.02 4.39 3.81 1.84 2.31 2.15 3,468 3,658 2,777 pH2!$ p20l!9 rl8$>!3 r?8i5 6,340 6,279 (NA) 1,442 1,304 (NA) 4.02 3.81 r2.87 2.08 1.79 rl.27 2,639 2,673 2,618 P4.10 P2.39 (NA) 1968 January February March . . . . October November December 1969 January February March April May June July August September . .... October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available. 84 AUGUST 1969 ltd* OTHER KEY INDICATORS Qj PRICE MOVEMENTS Consumer price indexes Year and month 781. All items© 782. Food (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) 783. Commodities less foods Wholesale price indexes 784. Services© 750. All commod- 58. Manufac- 751. Processed ities® tured goods® foods and feeds 752. Farm products (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) 1967 January February March 114.7 114.8 115.0 114.9 114.3 114.5 107.4 107.8 108.0 125.5 125.9 126.3 106.2 106.0 105.7 106.4 106.4 106.3 112.2 111.5 111.2 102.5 100.5 99.3 April May June 115.3 115.6 116.0 114.0 114.4 115.1 108.4 108.7 108.9 126.6 127.0 127,4 105.3 105.8 106.3 106.2 106.3 106.6 111.0 111.6 112.3 97.2 100.1 102.7 July August September 116.5 116.9 117.1 115.2 115.8 115.6 109.2 109.6 110.1 127.7 128.2 128.7 106.5 106.1 106.2 106.8 106.8 107.1 112.0 111.9 111.9 101.1 99.1 98.0 October November December 1968 January . February March 117.5 117.8 118.2 115.7 116.1 116.6 110.4 110.7 110.9 129.1 129.6 130.1 106.1 106.2 106.8 107.1 107.3 107.6 111.7 111.5 111.7 98.3 97.6 99.7 118.6 119.0 119.5 117.2 117.5 118.2 111.3 111.7 112.1 130.8 131.3 132.1 107.2 108.0 108.2 108.1 108.7 108.9 112.1 113.1 113.6 99.3 100.8 101.8 April May June 119.9 120.3 120.9 118.7 119.3 119.1 112.2 112.5 113.0 132.5 133.0 133.9 108.3 108.5 108.7 109.1 109.1 109.4 114.1 114.4 113.9 101.7 102.8 102.6 July August September 121.5 121.9 122.2 119.2 119.5 120.0 113.3 113.7 114.0 134.9 135.5 136.0 109.1 108.7 109.1 109.7 109.5 109.9 114.6 114.6 114.5 102.1 101.2 102.7 October November December 1969 January February March 122.9 123.4 123.7 120.8 121.0 121.6 114.4 114.8 115.0 136.6 137.4 138.1 109.1 109.6 109.8 110.0 110.3 110.5 114.5 115.3 114.9 102.7 104.7 103.9 124.1 124.6 125.6 122.2 122.0 122.8 115.1 115.9 117.0 139.0 139.7 140.9 110.7 111.1 111.7 111.3 111.7 112.2 115.7 116.1 117.1 105.3 104.5 106.2 April May June 126.4 126.8 127.6 123.6 124.2 125.5 117.2 117.5 118.0 142.0 142.7 143.3 111.9 112.8 113.2 112.4 112.8 113.2 118.6 120.2 120.7 105.1 109.6 111.3 July August September 128.2 125.8 118.2 144.0 113.3 P113.2 113.5 P113.5 120.7 108.5 . . October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. AUGUST 1969 85 ANALYTICAL MEASURES Qj ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP Year and quarter 206. Potential level1 205. Actual value (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1966 First quarter Second quarter. Third quarter Fourth quarter 1967 First quarter Second quarter. .... Third quarter Fourth quarter 1968 First quarter Second quarter. .... Third quarter Fourth quarter 1969 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter. Fourth quarter 207. Gap (potential less actual) Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 649.1 655.0 660.2 668.1 637.6 643.9 650.2 656.6 -H.5 -ll.l -10.0 -11.5 666.5 670.5 678.0 683.5 669.6 676.2 682.9 663.1 -3.4 -0.9 -1.8 -0.6 693.3 705.8 712.8 718.5 689.6 696.4 703.3 710.2 -3.7 -9.4 -9.5 -8.3 723.1 r726.7 717.2 724.3 r-2.4 -5.9 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available. 1 Based on a trend line of 3-1/2 percent per year through middle of 1955 from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3-3/4 percent from 4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, and 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to date. 86 AUGUST 1969 ANALYTICAL MEASURES Q| ANALYTICAL RATIOS 850. Ratio, 851. Ratio, output to ca- inventories pacity, manu- to sales, manfacturing ufacturing and trade Year and month (Percent) (Ratio) 852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, manufacturers' durable goods 853. Ratio, production of business equipment to consumer goods (Ratio) (1957-59=100) 854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (Ratio) 855. Ratio, nonagricult ural job openings unfilled to persons unemployed (Ratio) 858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm mfg. 859. Real spendable avg. wkly. earnings, nonagri.prod. or nonsupv. workers (1957-59=100) (1957-59 dol.) (1957-59 dol.) Revised1 1967 856. Real avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers, C1) 857. Vacancy rate in total rental nous'ing© (Percent) Revised1 January February March 87 .'i 1.57 1.59 1.59 3.51 3.50 3.46 126.0 127.6 125.6 0.075 0.138 0.133 0.127 128.3 2.A1 2.42 2.43 78.52 77.91 77.89 6.6 April May June 85.0 1.59 1.59 1.57 3.53 3.50 3.48 124.3 124.6 123.3 0.070 0.121 0.118 0.117 129!6 2.42 2.42 2.43 77.72 77.79 77.84 6.3 July August September 84.*3 1.59 1.57 1.57 3.54 3.40 3.48 123.1 121.7 122.3 0.074 0.117 0.120 0.115 13o!6 2.43 2M 2.43 78.11 78.23 78.36 6.1 October . . November . December ai!-d 1.59 1.57 1.56 3.54 3.44 3-39 119.4 122.2 119.9 0.077 0.109 0.118 0.119 131! i 2.43 2.A4 2.45 77.94 78.49 78.16 5*.6 p84!<? 1.55 1.54 1.54 3.37 3.36 3.39 121.2 119.6 118.3 0.069 0.128 0.124 0.129 132^6 2.47 2.46 2.48 78.17 78.71 78.57 5^5 pBk.B 1.55 1.54 1.52 3.41 3.36 3.28 117.9 118.0 117.5 0.072 0.137 0.140 0.132 134^1 2.47 2.48 2.48 78.29 78.55 78.63 5.*7 p84!o 1.52 1.54 1.52 3.17 3.38 3.24 117.3 116.3 117.7 0.056 0.129 0.132 0.132 134^4 2.48 r2.49 r2..49 78.39 78.52 78.94 5*.4 p84*.2 1.53 1.53 1.56 3.19 3.22 3.38 117.0 120.1 119.4 0.063 0.134 0.140 0.143 135^8 r2.49 2.50 r2.51 78.64 78.31 78.66 4*.9 January February March pBk.5 1.54 1.53 1.54 3.22 3.18 3.21 118.9 118.7 118.5 rO.053 0.141 0.143 0.134 135^6 2.51 2.50 2.49 78.52 78.05 78.31 5*.0 April May June pSk'.6 1.54 1.54 pl.53 3.24 3.26 3.17 r 120.0 r!21.2 rl21.5 rO.054 0.133 0.138 0.139 p!34!6 2.48 2.48 2.48 78.20 78.25 78.05 5.*i (NA) CHA) p!21.8 P2.49 P77.82 1968 January February March April . May June July August September October November December . .. 1969 July August September pO.124 October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. 1 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. IICII AUGUST 1969 87 ANALYTICAL MEASURES Q DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators Year and month Dl. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (21 industries) 1-month span 9-month span D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (35 industries) 1-month span 9-month span Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations, NICB (17 industries) 1-quarter span C1) 1967 January February March 69.0 7.1 81.0 3-quarter span 0) 11.9 9.5 9.5 40.0 54.3 32.9 34.3 34.3 38.6 47 53 48.6 54.3 64.3 65.7 61.4 65.7 53 41 April May June 40.5 28.6 64.3 16.7 38.1 31.0 July August September 71.4 59.5 76.2 76.2 61.9 40.5 40.0 72.9 42.9 74.3 91.4 70.0 53 59 October . . . November . . . . December 28.6 71.4 45.2 81.0 69.0 14.3 60.0 54.3 74.3 71.4 71.4 68.6 41 41 January February March . . 14.3 90.5 21.4 57.1 64.3 64.3 51.4 55-7 50.0 57.1 71.4 68.6 47 53 April May June 11.9 90.5 73.8 33.3 85.7 88.1 40.0 54.3 51.4 68.6 68.6 80,0 r65 59 July August September 35.7 38.1 88.1 35.7 47.6 76.2 51.4 A4.3 78.6 71.4 88,6 82.9 r71 r62 October November December 40.5 23.8 47.6 28.6 42.9 42.9 60.0 44.3 55.7 88.6 77.1 85.7 r47 76 47.6 31.0 95.2 P42.9 (NA) 57.1 62.9 40.0 82.9 r68.6 P51.4 r53 p65 1968 1969 January February March April May June July August September 2 2 42.9 r42.9 r59.5 2 p52.4 54.3 45.7 40.0 P53 P51.4 October November December NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. ^•See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill. 2 Based on revised data. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," July 1969 issue. AUGUST 1969 ItCII ANALYTICAL MEASURES Qj DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators-Con. D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (about 1,000 corporations) Year and month D19. Index of stock prices, 5001common D23. Index of industrial materials prices (13 industrial materials) stocks (77 industries) © 1 -quarter span 1967 January.. . . February March 43 . 9-month span D5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, week including the 12th (47 areas) 1 -month span 9-month span 1 -month span 9-month span 1 -month span 90.9 92.2 61.0 85.7 90.3 97.4 46.2 53.8 23.1 0.0 15.4 26.9 55.3 17.0 46.8 27.7 8.5 8.5 April May June 46 76.0 74.0 51.3 93.4 92.1 86.2 23.1 61.5 69.2 30.8 23.1 23.1 55.3 54.3 55.3 31.9 44.7 29.8 July August September 52 81.6 77.6 57.2 68.4 65.8 71.1 30.8 53.3 19.2 23.1 30.8 46.2 34.0 72.3 60.6 78.7 78.7 66.0 October November December 1968 January February March 59 32.2 7.9 71.1 52.6 46.1 50.0 46.2 46.2 61.5 33.5 30.8 30.8 38.3 74.5 46.8 80.9 70.2 78.7 55 64.5 10.5 21.1 61.8 63.2 71.1 46.2 46.2 53.8 30.8 &.946.2 25.5 80.9 25.5 57.4 51.1 61.7 April May June 45 94.7 83.6 80.3" 76.3 82.7 85.3 46.2 53.8 50.0 53.8 61.5 73*1 63.8 51.1 53.2 38.3 51.1 74.5 July August September 56 48.7 17.8 86.7 93.3 97.3 81.3 46.2 65.4 57.7 76.9 57*7 76.9 57.4 40.4 63.8 36.2 66.0 76.6 October November December 1969 January . February March 53 82.7 77.3 72.7 71.3 52.0 56.0 69.2 69*? 38.5 92.3 92.3 84.6 66.0 31.9 61.7 63.8 78.7 59.6 53 12.0 43.3 13.3 73.3 40.0 14.7 53.3 61.5 46.2 84.6 80.8 76.9 72.3 38.3 55.3 70.2 46.8 40.4 52 54.0 74.7 1.3 69.2 48.9 57.4 23.4 . . April May June July August September 4.0 65.4 57.7 76.9 3 61.5 76.9 8 51.1 October November December NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r indicates revised; V, preliminary; and *NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. 1 Based on 77 components through June 1967; on 76 components, July 1967 through August 1968; and on 75 components thereafter. 2 Average for August 5, 12, and 19. AUGUST 1969 89 ANALYTICAL MEASURES Qj DIFFUSION INDEXES: Roughly Coincident Indicators Year and month D41. Number of employees on nonagri cultural payrolls (30 industries) 1 -month span 6-month span D47. Index of industrial production (24 industries) 1 -month span 6-month span D58. Index of wholesale prices (22 manufacturing industries)® 1 -month span D54. Sales of retail stores (23 types of stores) 6-month span 1-month span 9-month span 1967 January •. February March 66.7 35.0 V).o 50.o 43.3 41.7 29.2 20.8 43.8 45.8 29.2 27.1 77.3 72.7 56.8 63.6 68.2 65.9 87.0 39.1 43.5 69.6 91.3 95.7 April May June 40.0 36.7 65.0 36.7 40.0 40.0 52.1 16.7 50.0 29.2 41.7 41.7 47.7 54.5 47.7 63.6 63.6 63.6 60.9 34.8 82.6 87.0 91.3 56.5 July August September 41.7 66.7 46.7 51.7 76.7 66.7 47.9 75.0 41.7 54.2 66.7 75.0 63.6 63.6 75.0 72.7 81.8 81.8 43.5 60.9 76.1 82.6 78.3 82.6 October ... . November December 1968 January February March 65.0 93.3 73.3 68.3 83.3 85.0 56.2 87.5 83.3 75.0 77.1 83.3 72.7 77.3 90.9 81.8 90.9 95.5 37.0 67.4 47.8 95.7 95.7 73.9 63.3 75.0 65.0 96.7 86.7 86.7 37.5 70.8 75.0 77.1 83.3 75.0 90.9 84.1 68.2 90.9 95.5 90.9 73.9 65.2 82.6 82.6 91.3 91.3 April May June 66.7 66.7 85.0 86.7 85.0 76.7 41.7 70.8 79.2 83.3 70.8 79,2 72.7 63.6 61.4 75.0 84.1 81.8 26.1 60.9 65.2 87.0 91.3 87.0 July August September. . . . 63.3 81.7 58.3 78.3 81.7 75.0 58.3 64.6 66.7 75.0 75.0 70.8 68.2 70.5 72.7 84.1 81.8 86.4 63.0 58.7 34.8 78*3 47,8 78.3 October November December 1969 January February March 71.7 80.0 73.3 81.7 80.0 80.0 68.8 75.0 64.6 66.7 70.8 79.2 79.5 79.5 61.4 81.8 81.8 90.9 52.2 543 21.7 82.6 65.2 65.2 90.0 70.0 70.0 83.3 r75.0 r75.0 54.2 62.5 91.7 81.2 83.3 r72.9 68.2 72.7 75.0 81.8 79.5 84.1 73.9 60.9 21.7 73.9 r82.6 p87*0 April May June 41.7 61.7 r73.3 P76.7 r45.8 r62.5 r72.9 P77.1 84.1 79.5 84.1 90.9 73.9 r41.3 r52.2 July August September P71.7 October November December p68.8 P77.3 p65.2 .... . . NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table E4 identifies the components for the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by (u). 90 AUGUST 1969 ANALYTICAL MEASURES E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change 1968 1969 Diffusion index components December January March February Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING1 (Average weekly hours) All manufacturing industries o Durable goods industries: Ordnance and accessories Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures Stone clay and glass products Primary metal industries Fabricated metal products* Machinery except electrical Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing industries + o + + o 40.6 (48) 41.3 41.2 40.4 42.0 41.5 41.6 40.1 40.0 40.7 41.9 41.7 41.9 + + + 42.3 40.2 41.6 40.6 38.8 + + + + + + 40.9 36.3 41.4 36.2 43.3 + o + - 38.4 42.0 42.4 41.3 37.6 - o Nondurable goods industries: Food and kindred products Tobacco manufactures Textile mill products Apparel and related products Paper and allied products Printing and publishing Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and related products Rubber and plastic products Leather and leather products 40.8 (48) + + o o + - 40.1 + (95) (3D + 0 40.7 (43) 0 r40.6 r40.3 r40.9 r42.1 41.7 r41.6 r42.6 r40.6 41.1 r40.8 39.1 + - 40.3 40.8 40.2 42.1 41.6 41.2 + + + + + + 40.7 40.9 40.8 42.3 41.9 41.8 40.9 40.2 40.9 42.0 41.8 41.8 42.4 40.4 41.4 + 40.7 39.1 42.3 39.8 41.5 39.7 37.7 + + + + + 42.8 40.7 41.6 40.8 39.0 42.6 40.9 41.5 40.8 39.5 40.7 36.9 40.8 36.2 43.3 o + + + + + 40.9 36.4 41.2 35.9 43.3 40.9 36.4 41.1 36.0 43.4 + - 40.7 38.3 40.1 35.2 42.5 + - r40.8 r38.1 41.0 r36.1 43.0 38.2 41.9 41.8 41.4 37.4 + - 37.9 41.7 42.5 40.7 35.5 + + + + + 38.3 41.8 43.1 41.4 37.6 38.3 41.6 42.9 41.4 37.7 + + + o - 38.4 r41.8 r43.0 41.4 r37.6 + + + JulyP 2 40.8 40.9 June May April + o - o 40.7 (60) 0 + + + o o + + + r41.0 r40.2 40.8 41.9 41.8 41.8 r42.6 r40.6 r41.6 r40.9 r39.2 + + + o + + - r40.6 39.6 41.2 r36.2 r42.9 38.4 r41.9 r42.3 41.5 r37.3 40.7 (52) o 41.1 40.2 40.8 41.8 41.5 41.8 + + + + 42.4 40.8 41.8 41.0 39.5 + + + 40.7 38.8 41.4 35.9 43.2 o + - 38.4 41.7 42.7 41.0 37.1 0 0 D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1 (Millions of dollars) All durable goods industries Primary metals Blast furnaces steel mills Nonferrous metals Iron and steel foundries Other primary metals. Fabricated metal products Metal cans, barrels, and drums Hardware, structural metal and wire products Other fabricated metal products Machinery, except electrical Steam engines and turbines*. Internal combustion engines* Farm machinery and equipment Construction, mining, and material handling*. Metalworking machinery* Miscellaneous equipment* Machine shops. Special industry machinery* General industrial machinery* Office and store machines* Service industry machinery* + 29,380 + 29,684 + 30,482 (56) (57) (63) • + + 4,345 1,941 + + + + 4,675 2,124 ... 3,195 3,755 + + + 5,210 V* 697 312 0 + + + + 4,666 2,071 + 4,614 2,110 :+> «* + ™ 696 + 340 ..•+ + + + ... + + 417 860 339 J} + + ... 4,806 2,307 - 29,998 -r29,171 + 30,779 (46) (40) (51) - + .• • + 3,158 3,119 + + (NA) 3,157 + 5,538 5,650 *77 !} 585 676 350 + + 685 429 ;} + + + + 511 ... ... + + + + + + + 4,772 r4,825 5,107 2,246 + 2,308 + (NA) + + + 472 485 ... + 2,980 5,626 "} (54) + *™ 2,841 5,350 + 30,944 (40) + + !} - 29,697 504 439 + + + + 5,579 5,627 415 !} 500 ... 735 361 716 303 + + 501 + ... 561 (NA) !} (NA) + (NA) (NA) 0 ' + (NA) NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. *Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24. 1 Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency. 2 Last four months of data for series components are not comparable with earlier data. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii, July 1969 issue. ItCII AUGUST 1969 91 ANALYTICAL MEASURES E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con. 1968 1969 Diffusion index components December January February March April May June July D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1 -Continued (Millions of dollars) 3,581 3,656 Electrical machinery Electrical transmission distr. equipment* Electrical industrial apparatus* Household appliances Radio and TV Communication equipment! :} + + 710 l) 1,049 - + 7,578 Transportation equipment Motor vehicles and parts total + + Aircraft partsl" Shipbuilding and railroad equipment* Other transportation equipment 627 1,020 ... 3,746 3,767 ;}+ ^7 ;} + 1,036 + - + ... + :} w 3,710 1} + 3,664 692 ;} -t- 1,003 + 1,165 + ... + 7,695 ... + 7,842 7,487 723 4- 3,928 7,107 ... 961 + 4- 711 !} (NA) + + 800 + (NA) . 7,228 Furniture total Stone clay and glass total Other durable goods total + ... + + + + + + ... - + + + + + ... + + + + + ... ... 0 + + 4- P7,06l r6,341 + + + (NA) + ... + + 104.62 - 99.14 - D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS2 (1941-43 = 10) Index of 500 stock prices Percent rising of 75 componenfs Coal bituminous . . ... Food composite Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers) Textile products . Paper Publishing + . . .. 106.48 - 102.04 - (73) (12) 101.46 - (43) + + + - + + Chemicals Drugs Oil composite Building materials composite Steel Metal fabricating + + + - + + + ... ... Machinery composite Office and business equipment Electric household appliances Electronics Automobiles Radio and television broadcasters + 101.26 + (54) (13) o Telephone companies Electric companies Natural gas distributors Retail stores composite Life insurance 99.30 + + (75) ... + + + ... + (1) 94.71 (4) + ... + ••• ... + + + + + + + - ... + + + + + + ... + + + ... + + + + ... + - + + + - + o + + ... ... + + + ... + + + + + + + ... + + + + ... ... ... NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. *Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24. t These industries plus ordnance comprise series 647. are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data are not seasonally adjusted. The components showi here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table E3. 2 92 AUGUST 1969 ItCB ANALYTICAL MEASURES E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con. 1968 1969 Diffusion index components January December February March May April i August July June D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 2 Industrial materials price index (1957- 59-100) + 100.7 + 103.4 + 106.3 + 106.9 + 109.3 + 110.4 + 111.6 + 112.4 + 115.0 (Dollars) Percent rising of 13 components Copper scrap (Ib.) Lead scrap (Ib.) Steel scrap (ton) Tin(lb.) Zincflb.) Burlap (yd.) + + Cotton (Ib.), 12-market average Print cloth (yd.), average. Wool tops (Ib.) Hides (Ib.). Rosin (100 Ib.) Rubber (Ib.) Tallow (Ib.) + + + (38) .446 .054 22.505 1.648 .139 .159 .265 .208 1.626 .177 11.385 .226 .046 (54) + .480 + -059 + 24.575 - 1.632 + ..143 .156 + + + + + .260 + .210 + - 1.607 .171 + 11.838 .225 + + .048 + (62) .448 .066 27.256 1.668 .144 .163 .256 .212 1.576 .164 11.803 .247 .049 (46) + .480 o .066 - 25.407 1.584 o .144 .154 (65) + .534 + .070 + 25.536 1.567 + .146 .3A3 .254 .255 + .213 + .217 1.572 1.575 .163 + .193 + 11.891 o 11.893 + .260 + .265 + .056 + .059 (58) + .545 + + .073 + + 30.644 + - 1.565 + + .150 + .136 + .250 o + .224 + 1.584 + .190 + 11.964 o .255 + o .059. + (77) .561 .074 31.283 1.594 .151 .140 .250 .221 1.597 .179 11.964 .260 .064 (62) + .577 + .078 - 29.774 + 1.617 o .151 + .1A5 .249 o .221 - 1.572 .172 + 12.410 + .278 + .068 (77) + .603 + .079 + 31.408 + 1.668 o .151 .143 + .257 o .221 + 1.575 .166 + 12.550 + .307 + .075 D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS 3 (Thousands) Avg. weekly initial claims ... o Northeast region: Boston (7) . . Buffalo (20) Newark (11) New York (1) Paterson (21) Philadelphia (4) Pittsburgh (9) Providence (25) North Central region: Chicago (2) Cincinnati (22) Cleveland (10) Columbus (26). . Detroit (5)... . Indianapolis (23) Kansas City (19) Milwaukee (18) Minneapolis (13) St. Louis (8) South region: Atlanta (17) Baltimore (12) Dallas (15) . Houston (14) West region: Los Angeles (3) Portland (24) San Francisco (6) Seattle (16) 190 + (62) Percent rising of 47 components + + + + + + + + + ... + + ... ... + + + ... ... + ... + + + + + + + + 184 + + ... ... ... ... ... + + + + ... ... ... ... + + + + ... + + + + + + + + + ... ... + ... + ... ... + ... + ... + __ + + + + + ... + ... ... + ... + ... + ... + + + + + ... ... + + + + + + ... ... 197 (51) (23) + ... _ + 201 + (57) (49) + ... + + + 180 176 + ... ... + + + + (55) + + + + + ... + + + + + + (38) + + + + + . . 186 179 (72) + + + + ... ... + + ... + ... + + ... ... + + + ... ... ... + ... + NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. 1 Average for August 5, 12, and 19. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. The industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted. 3 The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises: (-) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (+) = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined. Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month. Directions of change are shown separately for only the 26 largest labor market areas. The number following the area designation indicates its size rank. 2 AUGUST 1969 93 ANALYTICAL MEASURES E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con. 1968 1969 Diffusion index components January December March February May1* April June JulyP D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS 1 (Thousands of employees) All nonagricultural payrolls Percent rising of 30 components . Ordnance and accessories Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metal industries Fabricated metal products Machinery Electrical equipment Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing industries Food and kindred products Tobacco manufactures Textile mill products Apparel and related products Paper and allied products. Printing and publishing Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and related products Rubber and plastic products Leather and leather products Mining Contract construction Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retai 1 trade Finance, insurance, real estate Service and miscellaneous Federal government State and local government + 68,875 (73) o 195 + 524 + 402 + 530 + 1,044 + 1,100 - 1,346 + 1,330 - 1,427 o 287 + 351 . + 1,202 69 o 883 - 1,243 + 549 + 671 + 617 o 119 + 441 305 + 623 + 3,330 + 4,360 + 3,678 - 10,593 + 3,463 + 10,838 + 2,724 + 9,308 + 69,199 (90) + + + + + + + + + + o 196 528 407 534 1,051 1,109 1,359 1,344 1,439 288 351 + 69,487 + 69,710 (70) + + + + + + + 195 527 410 537 1,058 1,115 1,370 1,355 1,426 289 346 (70) + + o + + + + + + + 69,789 (42) 197 193 528 525 410 + 413 529 535 1,063 - 1,057 1,121 - 1,118 1^363 + 1,370 1,364 + 1,369 1,432 - 1,420 292 292 o 348 349 + 70,013 + r70,270 + 70,462 (62) (73) (72) + + + + + 192 530 kVZ 526 1,062 1,121 1^366 1,381 1,399 294 347 + 1,205 + 71 + 885 + 1,254 + 550 + 673 o 617 73 + 444 + 306 + 1,215 69 883 - 1,238 + 555 672 + 620 + 101 + 448 302 - 1,208 o 69 880 + 1,246 o 555 + 673 o 620 + 116 + 449 301 - 1,205 68 875 + 1,252 549 672 617 + 118 0 449 300 + 1,206 + 69 871 + 1,255 + 554 669 o 617 o 118 + 451 o 300 + + + + + + + + + 628 + 3,366 + 4,373 + 3,714 + 10,754 + 3,502 + 10,967 + 2,767 + 9,355 626 + 3,374 + 4,399 + 3,726 + 10,782 + 3,515 + H,034 - 2,759 + 9,373 624 - 3,363 + 4,439 + 3,737 + 10,796 + 3,531 + 11,044 o 2,758 + 9,386 + + + + + + + 626 3,338 4,353 3,701 10,711 3,490 10,900 2,760 9,321 622 3,407 4,444 3,758 10,851 3,541 H,065 2,754 9,453 + + + + + + + o r!89 r528 413 532 rl,075 rl,126 rl,376 rl,382 1,431 r293 r347 + + + + + + + + + + 191 531 416 528 1,077 1,131 1,384 1,406 1,462 297 351 - rl,200 o 69 + r874 0 rl,255 + r557 + r676 + r623 o rl!8 + r455 r299 o r622 + r3,459 + r4,456 + r3,772 +rlO,891 + r3,557 Orll,062 + r2,790 + r9,465 - 1,192 o 69 + 881 + 1,263 + 560 + 678 619 o 118 + 458 297 + 626 - 3,445 + 4,490 - 3,770 .+ 10,922 + 3,572 - 11,051 o 2,791 + 9,505 D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1 (1957-59=100) All industrial production Percent rising of 24 components 2 Durable goods: Primary and fabricated metals Primary metal products Fabricated metal products Machinery and related products Machinery, except electrical Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Clay, glass, and lumber Clay, glass, and stone products Lumber and products Furniture and miscellaneous Furniture and fixtures Miscellaneous + 170.1 (62) + 171.4 (92) + 171.7 (46) + 172.7 (62) + 173.9 + 175.2 (54) (73) (69) + 135*.4 + 175.6 + 139.'5 + 176.4 + 143)6 + 177.6 + 146.2 + 178.5 + rl47)9 - 178.3 + 1A9>)5 + 179.2 + 152)1 + 181.3 + + 156 182 + 185)3 + 193.0 - 176.4 + 189.7 + 188.*3 + 196.4 - 171.2 + 191.6 + 189.' 6 + 196.9 + 173.1 - 190.4 + 196)2 + 200.7 + 174.1 + 192.8 + 196)8 - 199.5 - 172.4 + 195.4 + 193.*1 + 201.8 - 171.8 - 195.3 + rl95)4 o 201.9 + rl75.9 + 195.7 + + + + + 15li2 + 132.3 + 156!2 - 122.5 + 156)5 + 126.7 - 153)4 + 130.8 + rl55.'l - 122.6 + 156)9 - 154)6 - pii9.o - 120.7 - 197 204 179 199 140 153 (NA) + 182.9 + 165.3 + 186 .*8 + 166.2 - 186.5 - 164.7 + 187.0 + 165.7 + 188)<? + 167.6 + 196)2 - 167.5 + + + 168.7 (65) + 169.1 + rl91.0 + rl68.1 192 171 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. 1 Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for the current month are rounded. 2 94 AUGUST 1969 BCII ANALYTICAL MEASURES E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con. 1968 1969 Diffusion index components December January February March April May June July D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1-Continued (1957-59=100) Nondurable goods: Textiles apparel and leather Textile mill products. Apparel products Leather and products - 153.5 - 149.2 - 109.2 - 152.9 - 14801 - 105.0 - 152.0 - 147.9 - 101.3 -t 152.9 + 150.2 -t- 105.6 + r!54.2 - r!47.8 - 103.4 + r!56.4 + P152.7 + p!07.4 - r!46.3 + p!57.6 (NA) (NA) Paper and printing Paper and products Printing and publishing - 169^9 o 152.3 + 171! i + 152.4 + 173^9 - 152.1 + 175^6 + 153.0 + 175^8 - 152.7 - rl75.*7 + 155.9 - P175O + r!57.0 Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber Chemicals and products Petroleum products Rubber and plastics products - 231^3 - 131.0 - 230.8 + 234^4 + 140.2 + 232.8 + 235^2 + 142.7 + 236.2 + r239^i - 142.2 - P234.2 - r238^9 + r!43.5 + P234.9 + r223,0 + P239.6 + P145.5 (NA) + + 23i.'e - 141.2 + 234.6 P223 (NA) (NA) (NA) Foods, beverages, and tobacco Foods and beverages Tobacco products + 139^4 +• 119.5 + 14<X9 + 121.2 + 14l! 5 - 118.7 - rl40.5 - 110.5 - rl38!6 + pl!5.4 + r!37.1 + p!38.8 (NA) + + 138*.8 - 113.6 p!38 (NA) (NA) + 118.3 - 125.4 - H5.3 - 123.9 - 112.4 - 121.8 + 114.3 + 123.5 + 120.2 + 126.9 + 123.9 + r!29.6 - 116.0 + 133.8 -i- + 137^6 + 147.0 + - + 142!1? + 149.2 + 149'.1 + 150.5 - r!46.6 - 141.4 - rl36!l - 141.2 + p!36!3 + p!42.6 p!26 P-133 p!41 (NA) (NA) + 112.8 + 113.2 » Minerals: Coal Crude oil and natural gas Metal, stone, and earth minerals Metal mining Stone and earth minerals 34C)!2 143.5 + p!47 (NA) (NA) (NA) + pl66 (NA) p!58 + + D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES2 (1957-59=100) All manufacturing industries + 111.3 + 111.7 + 112.2 (68) (73) (75) (84) + 137.8 + 105.3 + 110.6 + 107.5 + 127.2 + 109.3 + 119.6 + 118.5 + 144.5 + 105.4 + 111.2 + 108.0 + 149.5 + 105.7 + 111.9 -i- 108.8 - 143.3 -h 105.8 + 112.3 + 108.9 - 138.0 + 105.9 + 112.6 + 109.9 - 129.8 o 105.9 + 112.8 -i- 110.3 + 129.9 + 109.6 o 120.4 + 119.8 + 132.4 + 110.2 o 120.4 + 120.0 + 134.2 + 110.8 + 120.5 + 120.3 + 135.5 -t 136.1 + 111.0 + 112.0 + 120.7 + 121.3 + 121.2 + 121.5 + H5.7 o 103.5 - 106.5 o H2.5 + 128.9 + 109.4 + 120.4 + 119.1 + 116.1 o 103.5 - 106.4 o 112.5 + 116.5 + 104.2 - 106.3 o 112.5 + 116.6 + 104.3 + 106.4 + 112.7 + 117.6 + 117.8 + 104.5 + 104.7 + 106.5 + 106.6 + 112.8 + 115.1 + 118.1 + 104.8 o 106.6 + 115.5 o 114.7 - 105.1 o 104.6 - 92.9 + 111.9 + 116.0 - 104.8 + 104.7 - 92.8 + H2.7 + 116.3 o 104.8 - 104.4 - 92.3 o 112.7 + 116.4 - 104.6 - 104.2 - 92.1 + 112.8 + 117.3 - 104.5 + 104.3 + 92.4 + 113.0 + 119.4 + 104.6 o 104.3 + 92.6 - 112.9 + 121.4 - 104.5 + 105.0 + 92.7 + 113.3 + + o + o o + + 106.2 - 97.6 - 98.9 -. 100.0 + 123.5 + 106.8 + 97.8 + 99.5 + 100.5 - 123.4 + 107.4 + 98.0 + 101.7 + 100.9 o 123.4 + 108.0 - 97.9 + 102.5 + 101.2 + 126.0 + 108.1 + 98.1 - 102.4 - 101.1 + 126.1 -h 108.3 -i- 98.3 i- 103.3 + 101.2 - 125.7 + 108.4 98.2 - 103.2 + 102.5 + 126.4 + 110.5 (61) Durable goods: Lumber and wood products Furniture and other household durables Nonmetallic mineral products Iron and steel Nonferrous metals Fabricated structural metal products. Miscellaneous metal products. . . General purpose machinery and equipment Miscellaneous machinery Electrical machinery and equipment Motor vehicles and equipment Miscellaneous products Nondurable goods: Processed foods and feeds Cotton products Wool products . Manmade fiber textile products Apparel Pulp, paper, and allied products Chemicals and allied products Petroleum products refined Rubber and rubber products Hides, skins, leather, and related products + 133.5 + 105.0 + 109.3 + 106.1 + 123.5 + 109.0 + 118.3 o 118.3 + 115.6 - 103.5 o 106.6 o 112.5 105.2 97.7 99.0 101.1 122.8 + 112.4 (80) + (84) 113.5 (77) - 125.3 + 106.1 + 113.0 + 111.1 122.0 105.3 105.0 92.6 113.9 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. 1 Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data are not seasonally adjusted. 2 BUI AUGUST 1969 95 ANALYTICAL MEASURES E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con. 1968 1969 Diffusion index components December January February March Mayr April Julyp June D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES 1 (Millions of dollars) - 28,347 Percent rising of 23 components (22) Grocery stores Eating and drinking places Department stores Mail-order houses (department store merchandise) . . Variety stores Men's and boys' wear stores Women's apparel accessory stores Shoe stores Furniture home furnishings stores Household appliance, TV, radio stores Lumber yards, building materials dealers Hardware stores Passenger car and other automotive dealers Tire battery accessory dealers Gasoline service stations Drug and proprietary stores Liquor stores + 28,989 + + _ + 5,744 2,062 2,877 275 + + + 852 429 937 267 + + + 535 406 622 249 876 446 958 261 + 5,157 + 417 + 2,097 + 979 + 634 _ 28,916 (61) (74) + 5,909 + 2,094 - 2,861 273 505 371 589 263 5,082 363 2,052 969 565 + 29,289 (22) + 5,955 - 5,883 + 2,123 - 2,107 + 2,924 , - 2,895 296 + 298 + + + 534 416 645 261 + + 29,442 920 431 + 1,049 + 281 + + 5,172 + 435 - 2,091 959 603 - (74) - 5,839 + 2,133 + 3,080 294 517 393 615 245 + + + + 922 400 992 269 + 5,099 419 + 2,132 + 960 601 _ 29,386 + 558 414 649 266 903 436 974 287 + 5,145 + 427 - 2,106 + 963 + 619 -r29,337 (41) + (65) (52) + 5,906 - p5,846 + 2,186 + P2,190 - 2,011 - p2,971 p288 285 + o + 29,481 + + - (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 546 399 633 266 + + P553 + (NA) P385 + (NA) p631 + (NA) P289 + (NA) 902 455 943 281 + + + o P917 P478 P947 P281 + (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) + P5,2ii + + + (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) - 5,102 414 + 2,119 + 996 615 o p414 - p2,080 P978 + P633 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. 1 Data are seasonally adjusted "by the source agency. The diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately. In March 1969 a new seasonal adjustment of the retail trade data was completed and the basic data and directions of change in this table reflect that seasonal adjustment. 2 96 AUGUST 1969 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Q CONSUMER PRICES Year and month 133. Canada, 781. United index of consumer States, index of consumer prices© prices© 132. United King- 135. West Germany, 136. France, index of consumer index of consumer dom, index of prices® consumer prices® prices® 138. Japan, index of consumer 137. Italy, index of consumer prices© (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) 1967 January February March 115 115 115 117 117 118 129 129 129 123 123 123 141 141 U£ 153 154 154 137 138 138 April May June 115 116 116 119 119 120 130 130 130 124 124 124 142 142 142 154 153 152 138 138 139 July . . August . . . September . 116 117 117 121 121 121 130 130 129 124 123 123 142 143 143 152 153 156 139 139 140 October November December 1968 January February March 118 118 118 121 121 122 129 131 131 123 123 123 144 U5 145 159 159 160 140 140 140 119 119 120 123 123 123 132 133 133 125 125 125 147 147 147 161 161 162 140 140 140 April May June 120 120 121 124 124 124 136 136 136 125 125 126 147 148 148 162 163 161 141 141 141 July August September 122 122 122 125 125 126 136 137 137 126 2^5 125 149 149 150 162 162 168 140 140 141 October November December 1969 January . . . February March 123 123 124 126 127 127 137 138 140 126 126 127 152, 152 153 166 167 166 141 241 141 224 125 126 127 227 128 140 141 142 128 128 129 155 155 156 167 167 169 142 142 143 April May June 126 12? 128 129 130 131 243 243 (NA) 129 129 129 156 157 158 171 171 171 143 143 244 July August September 128 131 129 (1957-59=100) (NA) 174 (NA) October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Compjete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; a p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. ItCII AUGUST 1969 97 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Q INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 47. United States, index of industrial production 123. Canada, index of industrial production 122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production 126. France, index of industrial production 125. West Germany, index of industrial production 128. Japan, index of industrial production 121.0ECD,1 European countries, index of industrial production 127. Italy, index of industrial production (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59-100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) 1967 January February March 158 157 157 166 166 166 129 129 129 156 154 156 150 149 150 298 295 304 153 153 154 207 211 209 April May June 157 156 156 168 167 168 130 128 129 153 152 156 149 150 148 305 312 317 154 153 154 212 212 211 July . . . August September 156 158 157 169 170 170 129 129 128 156 156 159 154 152 155 321 327 336 155 154 156 211 198 211 October November December 1968 January February March . ... 157 160 162 169 173 174 129 131 134 159 160 161 156 158 171 338 346 349 157 159 164 215 217 216 161 162 163 172 172 173 133 134 135 162 164 167 157 159 165 347 354 351 160 161 164 218 220 222 April May June 162 164 166 175 176 179 133 135 136 167 116 133 164 167 180 362 372 373 164 154 163 222 224 221 July August September 166 165 165 178 178 180 137 138 136 171 171 170 166 182 177 382 381 389 167 171 171 223 217 234 October . . . November December 1969 January February March . . 166 168 169 182 184 185 137 239 140 179 r!82 r!84 176 185 187 397 407 400 r!74 r!77 178 235 226 233 169 170 171 185 187 191 139 r!39 139 r!83 180 180 186 189 190 402 410 405 179 179 180 238 232 239 April . . . May June juiy August September 172 173 174 P186 187 r!40 p!39 (NA) 185 185 p!83 189 195 p!98 428 r429 P436 181 P183 (NA) 241 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) Year and month October November December (NA) p!75 . . . . NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order.. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. ^Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. 98 AUGUST 1969 IICII INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Q STOCK PRICES Year and month 143. Canada, index 19. United States, index of stock of stock prices© prices, 500 common stocks © (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) 142. United Kingdom, index of stock prices© (1957-59-100) 146. France, index of stock prices© (1957-59=100) 145. West Germany, 148. Japan, index of stock prices© index of stock prices© (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) 147. Italy, index of stock prices© (1957-59=100) 1967 January February March 171 177 181 175 180 182 157 156 159 99 103 98 148 156 159 223 229 228 142 141 127 April May . . June 184 188 185 185 186 186 167 171 172 96 99 98 158 155 154 223 231 231 129 132 130 July August September 189 192 194 189 194 198 176 177 187 94 99 no 156 175 182 231 215 209 129 133 139 October November December 194 188 193 192 188 189 196 203 200 109 106 103 182 192 194 213 206 198 143 139 135 1968 January . . February March 193 184 181 189 177 171 202 208 213 107 104 113 205 209 207 203 208 209 134 130 133 April May June 194 198 204 183 185 187 235 246 252 117 111 107 216 219 226 220 229 235 136 135 133 July August September 2Q3 199 205 194 192 198 265 272 279 103 105 105 230 231 224 243 254 276. 136 138 136 October November December 210 2U 216 203 204 210 270 273 279 104 105 109 228 224 219 275 .264 266 131 127 134 January . . . . . February March 207 206 201 214 213 208 291 282 270 113 121 130 228 230 231 279 282 279 135 133 136 April May June 205 212 201 213 224 209 266 253 235 128 136 124 233 243 247 293 302 304 152 153 150 192 p!93 199 p!96 rp226 P224 rpl!7 p!22 238 p245 300 P294 rp!47 pI49 1969 Juiv August September October November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; ttp", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. BCD AUGUST 1969 99 APPENDIXES A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability Part 1. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes Period covered Quarterly series Cl 1 C I/C I/C for QCD span QCD Average duration of run (ADR) Cl 1 C QCD A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT 200. 205 210 215 217 220. 222 GNP in current dol lars GNP in 1958 dollars Implicit price deflator Per capita GNP in current dollars Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars National income, current dollars Personal income current dollars 1.62 1.23 .57 1.37 1.04 1.70 1.51 .31 .30 .10 .30 .30 .35 .23 1.55 1.12 .56 1.28 .91 1.59 1.48 .20 .27 .18 .24 .33 .22 .16 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 .20 .27 .18 .24 .33 .22 .16 7.22 3.82 16.25 5.91 5.00 7.11 13.00 1.33 1.27 1.35 1.33 1.27 1.36 1.23 9.29 7.22 32.50 9.29 7.22 10.67 13.00 7.22 3.82 16.25 5.91 5.00 7.11 13.00 Disposable personal income, current dollars . . , . IQ'53-IIQ'69.... . Disposable personal income, constant dollars .... IQ'53-IIQ'69.... Per capita disposable personal income, current dol, IQ'53-IIQ'69.... Per capita disposable personal income, constant dol lars IQ'53-IIQ'69---230. Total personal consumption expenditures, current dollars IQ'53-IIQ'69-... 231. Total personal consumption expenditures, constant dollars IQ'53-IQ'69.... 1.43 1.07 1.13 .27 .29 .26 1.39 1.00 1.07 .19 .29 .24 1 1 1 .19 .29 .24 13.00 5.91 7.22 1.27 1.33 1.27 65.00 9.29 9.29 13.00 5.91 7.22 .40 1 .40 3.82 1.44 5.91 3.82 232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods 233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, except automobi les 234 Personal consumption expend automobiles 236. Personal consumption expend., nondurable goods . 237. Personal consumption expenditures, services .... IQ'53-IIQ'69.... 3.12 IQ'53-IQ'69.... IQ'53-IQ'69.... IQ'53-IIQ'69.... IQ'53-IIQ'69.... IQ'SMIQ'69 ... IQ'53-IIQ'69 ... IQ'53-IIQ'69.... IQ'53-IIQ'69.... IQ'53-IIQ'69.... IQ'53-IQ'69.... IQ'53-IIQ'69.... 224. 225. 226. 227. .82 .29 .73 1.44 .35 1.40 .25 1 .25 9.29 1.27 65.00 9.29 1.05 .41 1.01 .41 1 .41 4.27 1.21 7.11 4.27 1.42 2.43 .58 1 .58 2.83 1.20 5.00 2.83 2.08 6.11 1.17 1.75 .90 3.50 .47 .22 1.83 4.22 1.13 1.71 .49 .83 .42 .13 1 1 1 1 .49 .83 .42 .13 4.57 2.46 5.91 65.00 1.23 1.28 1.25 1.23 8.00 3.56 32.50 65.00 4.57 2.46 5.91 65.00 240. Gross private domestic investment, total 241 Total nonresidential fixed investment IQ'53-IIQ f 69.... IQ'53-IIQ'69.... IQ'53-IIQ'69.... 243. Fixed investment, producers' durable equipment . . IQ'53-IIQ'69.... IQ'53-IIQ'69.... 244 Fixed investment, residential structures 4.74 2.87 2.81 3.26 3.43 2.29 1.01 1.62 1.23 1.01 3.42 2.48 2.13 2.78 3.07 .67 .41 .76 .44 .33 1 1 1 1 1 .67 .41 .76 .44 .33 2.60 4.33 2.50 2.95 2.95 1.38 1.35 1.25 1.25 1.35 4.33 5.00 4.33 5.00 5.91 2.60 4.33 2.50 2.95 2.95 IQ'53-IIQ'69.... Exports of goods and services IQ'53-IIQ'69.... Imports of goods and services Gov purchases of Roods and services total • • « • • IQ'53-IIQ'69.... Federal Gov. purchases of goods and services . . IQ . '53-110 '69.... Federal Government purchases of goods and IQ'53-IIQ'69.... services for national defense 266. State and local gov. purchases, goods and services IQ'53-IIQ'69.... 3.95 3.33 2.01 2.26 2.57 1.97 .56 .89 2.53 2.32 1.89 1.98 1.02 .85 .29 .45 2 1 1 1 .44 .85 .29 .45 2.60 2.83 5.91 3.25 1.33 1.27 1.27 1.35 5.00 5.91 13.00 4.64 3.76 2.83 5.91 3.25 2.20 2.40 .76 .47 1.90 2.37 .40 .20 1 1 .40 .20 2.95 21.67 1.25 1.30 5.00 21.67 2.95 21.67 270. 274 280 282 284 286. IQ'53-IQ'69.... IQ'53-IQ'69 .... IQ'53-IIQ'69.... IQ'53-IIQ'69.... IQ'53-IIQ'69.... IQ'53-IQ'69.... 2.27 1.26 1.68 1.26 .99 4.26 .87 .54 .25 .69 .36 2.20 1.96 1.20 1.63 .99 .89 3.31 .44 .45 .16 .69 .41 .67 1 1 1 1 1 1 .44 .45 .16 .69 .41 .67 3.76 5.82 9.29 2.32 9.29 3.05 1.31 1.21 1.27 1.35 1.23 1.23 7.11 16.00 9.29 5.42 7.22 3.76 3.76 5.82 9.29 2.32 9.29 3.05 IQ'53-IIQ'69.... IQ'53-IQ'69.... IQ'53-IIQ'69.... 3.95 4.84 8.88 .93 2.42 7.22 3.91 3.66 4.61 .24 .66 1.57 1 1 2 .24 .66 .50 21.67 3.05 1.51 1.30 1.19 1.27 21.67 6.40 3.25 21.67 3.05 2.67 IQ'53-IQ'69.... IQ'53-IIQ'69.... 8.98 1.81 5.39 .34 6.17 1.76 .87 .19 1 1 .87 .19 2.21 21.67 1.25 1.38 3.05 21.67 2.21 21.67 IQ'53-IIIQ'67.... IQ'53-IQ'69.... IQ'53-IIQ'69.... IQ'53-IIIQ'67.... 9.31 5.06 1.49 3.13 4.62 2.85 .33 .74 6.89 3.87 1.46 2.91 .67 .74 .23 .26 1 1 1 1 .67 .74 .23 .26 3.05 3.05 13.00 5.80 1.29 1.23 1.23 1.41 3.41 4.57 13.00 5.80 3.05 3.05 13.00 5.80 IQ'53-IQ'69.... IQ'53-IIIQ'67.... IQ'53-IIIQ'6Z... IQ'53-IIQ'69.... IQ'53-IIQ'69.... .86 5.36 10.95 1.62 1.23 .40 .84 6.17 .31 .30 .72 5.21 8.16 1.55 1.12 .56 .16 .76 .20 .27 1 1 1 1 1 .56 .16 .76 .20 .27 3.37 4.14 2.23 7.22 3.82 1.31 1.32 1.29 1.33 1.27 4.92 5.80 3.62 9.29 7.22 3.37 4.14 2.23 7.22 3.82 3.09 2.30 1.51 8.10 2.73 1.00 .74 .31 5.63 1.45 2.68 1.81 1.45 4.61 1.77 .37 .41 .21 1.22 .82 1 1 1 2 1 .37 .41 .21 .55 .82 4.18 4.60 6.57 1.95 2.25 1.35 1.35 1.31 1.30 1.13 5.11 5.75 9.20 3.55 3.46 4.18 4.60 6.57 2.37 2.25 252 253 260 262. 264. Final sales durable goods Final sales nondurable goods Compensation of employees Proprietors' income Rental income of persons Corp. profits and inventory valuation adjustment. . 288 Net interest 290 Gross saving private and govewrppnt 294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment 296 Capital consumption allowances B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS 11 *16 57 *61 68. 97. 110 *200 *205 New capital appropriations manufacturing Corporate profits after taxes Final sales Business expend new plant and equipment Labor cost per unit of gross product, nonfinancial corporations Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing . Total private borrowing GNP in current dollars GNP in 1958 dollars C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS 61a. 410 412. 430a A35". Business expend., new plant and equipment Manufacturers' sales total value Manufacturers' inventories, total book value New car purchases by households Index of consTimeT sentiment IQ'57-IIIQ'68. IQ'57-IIIQ'68. IQ'57-IIIQ'68. IQ'59-IVQ'68. 110 '57-1110 '68- See definitions of measures at end of pgirt 1- 101 A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued Part 1. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes-Continued Period covered Quarterly series Cl 1 C T/c I/C for QCD span QCD Average duration of run (ADR) Cl 1 C QCD D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS 252. 253. 264. 530 532. Exports of goods and services. Imports of goods and services National defense purchases. Liquid liabilities to all foreigners. Liquid and certain non liquid liabilities to foreign official agencies 534 536 537 540. U S official reserve assets Merchandise exports adjusted Merchandise imports adjusted Investment income, military sales, and other services exports 541. Foreign investment income, military expenditures, and other services imports 3.95 3.33 2.20 2.21 2.57 1.97 .76 .96 2.53 2.32 1.90 1.67 1.02 .85 .40 .57 2 1 1 1 .44 .85 .40 .57 2.60 2.83 2.95 2.40 1.33 1.27 1.25 1.24 5.00 5.91 5.00 3.00 3.76 2.83 2.95 2.40 IQ'60-IQ'69 .... 3.95 2.62 2.50 1.05 2 .35 2.25 1.13 3.00 2.50 IQ'60-IQ'69 .... IQ'60-IQ'69 .... IQ'60-IQ'69 .... 2.16 4.12 3.91 1.14 2.74 1.80 1.75 2.46 3.31 .65 1.11 .54 1 2 1 .65 .52 .54 2.57 1.80 3.60 1.29 1.38 1.29 3.60 3.60 5.14 2.57 3.50 3.60 IQ'60-IQ'69 .... 3.47 2.13 2.53 .84 1 .84 1.89 1.29 6.00 1.89 IQ'60-IQ'69 .... 2.36 1.37 1.80 .76 1 .76 2.25 1.16 6.00 2.25 IQ'60-IQ'69 .... ». . . IQ'60-IQ'69 .... IQ'60-IQ'69 .... IQ'60-IQ'69 .... IQ'60-IQ'69 .... 5.87 4.51 3.60 3.99 17.73 3.89 2.09 2.29 2.71 13.66 3.58 3.94 2.72 2.63 8.97 1.09 .53 .84 1.03 1.52 2 1 1 2 2 .43 .53 .84 .35 .65 1.71 3.60 4.00 2.40 1.44 1.29 1.29 1.33 1.24 1.33 3.27 6.00 5.14 4.00 2.12 2.69 3.60 4.00 3.50 2.06 IQ'60-IQ'69 .... U.S. military expenditures abroad .... Receipts from transportation and other services. . . IQ'60-IQ'69 .... Payments for transportation and other services . . .IQ'60-IQ'69 .... Fed. receipts, nat'l. income and product accts. . .IQ'53-IQ'69 . Fed. expend., nat'l. income and product accts. . . IQ'53-IIQ'69.... . 3.72 2.42 3.19 2.62 2.13 2.25 1.37 2.44 .94 .85 2.67 2.04 1.72 2.41 1.90 .84 .67 1.42 .39 .44 1 1 2 1 1 .84 .67 .61 .39 .44 2.25 3.60 1.80 4.27 4.33 1.29 1.24 1.24 1.31 1.23 3.60 9.00 6.00 6.40 5.91 2.25 3.60 2.92 4.27 4.33 8.53 .87 7.18 .40 4.52 .71 1.59 .56 2 1 .53 .56 1.44 3.25 1.27 1.23 3.61 8.13 3.20 3.25 542 Income on U S investments abroad 543 Income on foreign investments in U.S 544 Receipts from foreign travelers in U.S 545 Payments by U S travelers abroad 546 Mi litary sales to foreigners 547. 548. 549. 601. 602. IQWIQ'69.... IQ'60-IIQ'69.... IQ'53-IIQ'69.... IQ'60-IQ'69 .... E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES 854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal IQ'53-IIQ'69.... IQ'53-IIQ'69.... *Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators. BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1 The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957). "Cl" is the average quarter-to-quarter percentage change, without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series or, if the series contains no measurable seasonal, in the unadjusted series. "C" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular component, obtained by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series. "QCD" (quarters for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical movements in a quarterly series. It is small for smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving QCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the irregular component and the cyclical component over 1-quarter spans (1st quarter-2d quarter, 2d quarter-3d quarter, etc.), 2-quarter spans (1st quarter-3d quarter, 2d quarter-4th quarter, etc.), up to 4-quarter spans. Averages, without regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each span. QCD is the shortest span in quarters for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component, 102 and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series became dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with a QCD greater than "2* are shown as "3*. "T/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally ad jus ted series. It is shown for 1-quarter spans and for spans of the period of QCD. When QCD is "3", no T/C ratio is shown for the QCD period. "Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive quarterly changes in the same direction in any series of obse vations. When there fc is no change between 2 quarters, a change in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and the QCD curve. The QCD curve is an unweighted moving average (with the number of terms equal to QCD) of the seasonally adjusted series. A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1quarter intervals in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-quarter intervals in a moving average (QCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of Cl is BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1--Continued 1.56 for the series on the ratio of personal saving to disposable personal income (series 854). This indicates that 1-quarter changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the average, reverse sign about a soften as expected in a random series. The ADR measures shown in the next two columns, 1.30 for I and 3.21 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. Finally, ADR is 3.00 for the QCD moving average. This indicates that a 2-quarter moving average of the seasonally adjusted series (2 quarters being the QCD span) reverses direction, on the average, about every 3 quarters. The increase in the ADR from 1.56 for CI to 3.00 for the QCD moving average indicates that, for this series, quarter-to-quarter changes in the QCD moving average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements of the series, whereas the quarter-to-quarter changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not. A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued Part 2. Quarterly Series: Average Actual Changes Period covered Quarterly series Unit of measure T CI C r/c QCD Average duration of run (ADR) I/C for QCD span CI 1 C QCD A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT 245 Change in business inventories total IQ'53-IIQ'69... 250 271. 275. 298 IQ'53-IIQ'69... IQ'53-IQ'69.... IQ'53-IQ'69.... IQ'53-IQ'69.... Net exports of goods and services • • Change in business inventories, durable goods. Change in bus. inventories, nondurable goods . Government surplus or deficit total • Ann. rate, bil.dol.... ...do ...do ...do ...do 2 1 2 2 1 .52 .74 .55 .88 .63 1.67 2.32 1.56 1.45 3.20 1.33 1.35 1.31 1.28 1.36 3.82 3.61 2.78 2.46 4.00 2.78 2.32 2.74 2.17 3.20 2 .48 2.52 1.29 3.32 3.44 2 1 .39 .48 2.37 2.70 1.28 1.48 -4.92 3.65 4.20 2.70 2 .52 1.67 1.33 3.82 2.78 .94 1 .94 2.30 1.35 3.07 2.30 .90 1 .90 1.71 1.33 3.00 1.71 1.46 2 .57 1.52 1.23 2.78 2.74 286.5 1.24 2 .80 2.00 1.50 2.25 2.19 422.5 266.4 1.59 2 .70 1.89 1.38 3.00 2.33 637.0 65.8 219.4 141.6 124.8 384.3 55.9 169.6 105.7 101.3 330.3 33.3 88.2 86.6 64.2 1.16 1.68 1.92 1.22 1.58 2 4 3 2 2 .70 C1) (X) .56 .41 1.80 1.44 1.50 1.80 1.33 1.50 1.24 1.38 1.29 1.16 3.00 1.89 2.57 3.00 2.77 2.19 1.94 2.83 2.19 2.33 265.6 289.2 216.1 213.6 117.8 157.7 1.84 1.36 2 2 .77 .63 1.50 1.44 1.24 1.33 2.00 2.00 2.19 1.84 2.69 1.51 2.08 .73 1 .73 2.29 1.33 4.00 2.29 4.16 1.72 .26 1.55 .69 .16 3.47 1.40 .17 .45 .49 .93 1 1 1 .45 .49 .93 2.95 2.82 2.04 1.30 1.41 1.36 5.00 3.65 3.27 2.95 2.82 2.04 2.85 \ .86 2.39 1.47 2.71 2.00 .46 1.62 1.27 1.40 1.53 .63 1.32 .54 2.23 1.31 Cents .30 .22 .20 1.14 Percent .... ...do Ann. rate, bil.dol.... .46 .11 .32 .05 .32 1.00 .11 .48 2.85 2.00 1.53 IQ'57-IIIQ'68-. Mil. cars ... 93.26 53.01 56.21 IQ'60-IQ'69.... Mil.dol 238.8 139.6 154.3 IQ'60-IQ'69.... ...do 400.1 296.7 202.7 IQ'60-IQ'69.... ...do 572.3 355.5 IQ'60-IQ'69.... ...do 571.6 IQ'60-IQ'69.... IQ'GO-IQ'69.... IQ'60-IQ'69.... IQ'60-IQ'69.... IQ'60-IQ'69.... ...do ...do ...do ...do ...do ...do ...do Ann. rate, bil.dol".... .74 1.23 2.34 .63 B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS 15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, mfg. . . IQ'53-IVQ'68... 22. Ratio of profits to income originating, IQ'53-IQ'69.... corporate all industries IQ'53-IIIQ'68... *67 Bank rates on short-term bus loans® IQ'53-IIQ'69... 245 Change in business inventories total 1.31 C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS 480 Change in freight carloadings(§) D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS 250. Balance on goods and services, excluding mi litary grants 20. U.S. balance of payments, liquidity balance [)3SJS 2. U.S. balance of payments, official settlements [)3SJS . Net capital movements plus unilateral transfers liquidity balance basis /. Net capital movements plus unilateral transfers official settlements basis ....... 0 Foreign direct investments in the U S jl U S direct investments abroad 564 Foreign purchases of U S securities 565 U S purchases of foreign securities 570. Government grants and capital transactions, net 575. Banking and other capital transactions, net. . 600. Fed. balance, nat'l. income and product accts. IQ'60-IQ'69 .IQ'60-IQ'69 IQ'53-IIQ'69... E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES 207. GNP gap (potential less actual) IQ'53-IIQ'69... 850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing ...... IQ'53-IIIQ'68.. 857 Vacancy rate in total rental housing® IQ'56-IIQ'68... ...do Percent ...do *Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators, when QCD is "3." ®Measures are "based on unadjusted data. •"•Not shown BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2 These measures are computed by an additive method. This ; method is used for series with zero or negative data and for ' other series where it seems appropriate, such as series < expressed in percent. Thus, "CI" is the average quarter-to-quarter change in the ! seasonally adjusted series. This average is computed without regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of measure as the series itself. "C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the seasonally adjusted series. *!* is the same for the irregular component, which is determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the seasonally adjusted series. All other measures have the same meaning as in parti. 103 B. Current Adjustment Factors 1369 Series Jan. 4. Nonagricultural placements, all industries1 5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance — 1 13 New business incorporations • . 15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sa les mf g 2 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies ^ 3 37. Purchased materials, percent of companies reporting higher inventories 39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total installment loans4 49. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding 5 112 Change in business loans 508. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery 616. Defense Department obligations, tota 1 621. Defense Department obligations, procurement 625. Military contract awards in U.S — D34. Profits, manufacturing (FNCB)6 . . . 87 4 151.3 118 2 Feb. 81 3 114.5 93 7 Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. 92 2 100 4 102 3 111 3 105 2 110 2 118 1 114 2 94 6 82 5 92.5 93.3 78.4 79.3 122.0 84.9 70.7 80.0 97.8 135.0 101 0 en 3 92 9 101 5 84 0 100 "• 108 1 105 3 97.8 -272 102.3 -448 101.0 -111 107.0 -1-59 106.5 +93 103.4 93.6 83.4 84.7 94.5 109.0 99.3 98.7 100.5 100.0 100.2 99.0 100.1 101.7 101 8 103.9 109.8 106.0 102 0 103.1 -t- 107 101.3 120.1 +157 +18 +126 -169 +238 102.2 95.6 88.1 91.7 97.7 99.0 91.9 Dec. 102.0 96.2 -1-215 Nov. 98.3 106 2 111.1 115.6 106.5 99.0 100.1 99.2 99.5 101.1 100.8 100.0 99.4 99.7 99.6 100.3 99.6 92.3 93.2 94.3 99.0 103.0 98.0 99.3 101.8 101.2 100.1 99.9 100.6 111.3 99.1 99.7 94.1 100.7 79.8 103.0 91.2 80.6 95.6 97.9 94.4 151.1 94.5 102.3 112.3 100.1 85.6 94.7 77.2 71.0 96.0 99.0 96.9 204.9 58.2 102.6 122.3 100.5 76.3 95.9 87.1 -15 81.0 88.7 86.4 +16 96.6 185.7 101.7 -9 115.0 98.7 +8 79.4 92.2 87.9 NOTE: These series are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasona I adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasona lly adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever they are published. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. IS.The X-ll Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program. 1 Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of th combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors due rounding. 2 Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter. 3 These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted moi totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the O Method II seasonal adjustment program. 4 Bimonthly series. Factors are for even-numbered months (February, April, June, etc.). 5 Factors apply to monthly totals before month-to-month changes are computed. 6 l-quarter diffusion index: Figures are placed in the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is compv and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index. 104 C. Historical Data for Selected Series This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been added dded to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have notbeen seasonally adjusted* therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report. Monthly Year Feb. Jan. 856. Mar. Apr. May June Quarterly July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1 Q REAL AVERAGE HOURLY E A R N I N G S OF PRODUCTION WORKERS IN M A N U F A C T U R I N G ( 1957-59 DOLLARS) II Q Annual III Q IV Q 1.56 AVERAGE 1945. . ... 1947.. 1.54 1.56 1.54 1.54 1.57 1.59 1.59 1.58 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.55 1.55 1.57 1.58 1.56 1948.. 1949.. 1950.. 1.54 1.64 1.70 1.58 1.67 1.71 1.58 1.66 1.71 1.56 1.66 1.72 1.56 1.66 1.72 1.57 1.66 1.72 1.56 1.67 1.72 1.59 1.67 1.72 1.59 1.66 1.70 1.61 1.66 1.72 1.62 1.65 1.73 1.64 1.68 1.75 1.57 1.66 1.71 1.56 1.66 1.72 1.58 1.67 1.71 1.62 1.66 1.73 1.58 1.66 1.72 1951.. 1952.. 1953.. 1.72 1.74 1.83 1.71 1.77 1.86 1.71 1.78 1.87 1.72 1.77 1.87 1.73 1.77 1.86 1.74 1.76 1.86 1.74 1.74 1.87 1.74 1.77 1.88 1.74 1.80 1.87 1.73 1.82 1.87 1.74 1.81 1.88 1.74 1.82 1.88 1.71 1.76 1.85 1.73 1.77 1.86 1.74 1.77 1.87 1.74 1.82 1.88 1.73 1.78 1.87 1954.. 1955.. 1956.. 1.88 1.94 2.03 1.89 1.95 2.03 1.89 1.95 2.05 1.90 1.98 2.07 1.90 1.99 2.06 1.90 1.97 2.06 1.88 1.99 2.03 1.90 2.00 2.07 1.90 2.01 2.08 1.91 2.01 2.09 1.93 2.03 2.08 1.93 2.02 2.09 1.89 1.95 2.04 1.90 1.98 2.06 1.89 2.00 2.06 1.92 2.02 2.09 1.90 1.99 2.06 1957.. 1958.. 1959.. 2.09 2.08 2.14 2.09 2.08 2.15 2.09 2.07 2.17 2.09 2.08 2.18 2.08 2.08 2.18 2.08 2.08 2.18 2.08 2.08 2.17 2.09 2.10 2.14 2.09 2.10 2.16 2.10 2.10 2.14 2.10 2.13 2.15 2.09 2.14 2.18 2.09 2.08 2.15 2.08 2.08 2.18 2.09 2.09 2.16 2.10 2.12 2.16 2.09 2.09 2.16 196D.. 1961.. 1962.. 2.20 2.20 2.27 2.21 2.19 2.26 2.21 2.20 2.27 2.19 2.21 2.27 2.20 2.23 2.27 2.19 2.23 2.27 2.19 2.22 2.26 2.20 2.23 2.27 2.21 2.23 2.26 2.20 2.25 2.27 2.19 2.26 2.27 2.19 2.26 2.29 2.21 2.20 2.27 2.19 2.22 2.27 2.20 2.23 2.26 2.19 2.26 2.28 2.20 2.23 2.27 1963.. 1964.. 1965.. 2.28 2.32 2.36 2.29 2.32 2.37 2.30 2.33 2.38 2.30 2.33 2.37 2.31 2.34 2.37 2.31 2.34 2.37 2.30 2.35 2.38 2.30 2.36 2.38 2.31 2.36 2.39 2.30 2.33 2.39 2.32 2.35 2.40 2.32 2.36 2.39 2.29 2.32 2.37 2.31 2.34 2.37 2.30 2.36 2.38 2.31 2.35 2.39 2.30 2.34 2.38 1966.. 1967.. 2.40 2.41 2.39 2.42 2.39 2.43 2.40 2.42 2.40 2.42 2.40 2.43 2.40 2.43 2.40 2.44 2.41 2.43 2.40 2.43 2.41 2.44 2.41 2.45 2.39 2.42 2.40 2.42 2.40 2.43 2.41 2.44 2.40 2.43 859. R E A L S P E N D A B L E A V E R A G E W E E K L Y E A R N I N G S OF P R O D U C T I O N OR N O N S U P E R V ISORY WORKERS ON P R I V A T E NONAGR ICULTURAL PAYROLLS ( 1957-59 DOLLARS) AVERAGE ... ... ... ... 1955.. ... ... ... ... ... ... 76.25 78.29 76.44 78.92 76.70 77.58 76.19 78.16 76.27 78.32 ... 76. 2^ 79.14 75.60 78.33 76.91 79.16 79.07 78.47 78.15 78.36 77.94 78.30 78.49 78.26 78.65 78.41 78.16 78.31 78.16 78.11 77.78 78.23 78,20 78.38 78.08 .. 1964.. 1965.. 75.21 78.16 75.87 78.47 75.71 1966.. 1967.. 78.82 78.52 78.51 77.91 78.61 78.37 77.89 76.26 77.96 76.32 78.44 75.98 78.07 78.53 77.72 78.29 77.79 78.40 77.84 76.03 76.54 78.15 78.51 78.37 77.95 78.23 78.11 78.36 Note: See "New Features and Changes for This Is sue," page iii. (AUGUST 1969) 105 C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol <§) (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report. Quarterly Quarterly Year 858. 1 II Hi IV INDEX OF OUTPUT PER MAN-HOUR, TOTAL PRIVATE 1 NONFARM (1957-59-100) ... ... ... ... Annual Year AVERAGE 210A. Annual 1 II III IV IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR, GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT (1958-100)2 AVERAGE 19*5... 1946... 19*7... 72.5 ... ... 74.4 ... 74.5 75.3 ... ... 74.2 1945... 1946... 1947... 7315 ... ... 73.7 ... 74.9 ... 77.0 59.7 66.7 74.6 1948... 1949... 1950... 75.3 78.3 83.2 76.3 79.0 83.8 76.8 80.7 85.2 77.4 79.8 85.6 76.4 79.4 84.4 1948... 1949... 1950... 78.2 79.7 78.3 79.2 79.1 79.0 80.6 78.8 80.8 80.3 78.9 82.3 79.6 79.1 80.2 1951... 1952... 1953... 84.6 87.1 88.8 85.2 86.5 89.6 87.5 86.6 89.9 87.6 87.7 89.8 86.2 87.0 89.5 1951... 1952... 1953... 84.8 86.7 88.4 85.4 87.1 88.3 85.6 87.7 88.4 86.7 88.3 88.4 85.6 87.5 88.3 1954... 1955... 1956... 90.1 94.9 94.4 90.9 95.9 95.1 92.3 96.3 95.1 92.9 95.6 95.8 91.5 95.7 95.1 1954... 1955... 1956... 89.5 90.2 92.6 89.6 90.6 93.4 89.5 91.0 94.6 89.8 91.6 95.4 89.6 90.9 94.0 1957... 1958... 1959... 96.7 97.1 102.5 96.8 99.0 103.5 97.7 100.6 102.7 97.9 101.9 103.7 97.3 99.6 103.1 1957... 1958... 1959... 96.4 99.3 101.1 97.1 99.7 101.5 98.0 100.1 101.9 98.5 100.6 102.1 97.5 100.0 101.6 I960... 1961... 1962... 105.1 104.3 110.6 104.3 107.1 111.1 103.9 108.8 112.9 104.3 109.7 114.9 104.4 107.5 112.4 1960... 1961... 1962... 102.6 104.3 105.5 103.1 104.5 105.6 103.5 104.5 105.8 104.0 105.1 106.3 133. 3 104.6 105.8 1963... 1964... 1965... 114.4 119.2 121.6 114.8 119.9 122.6 116.4 123.9 124.3 117.5 120.2 125.8 115.8 120.0 123.6 1963... 1964... 1965... 106.7 108.2 110.2 107.0 108.5 110.7 107.2 109.1 111.0 107.8 109.6 111.5 107.2 11)8.8 110.9 1966... 1967... 127.3 128.3 127.7 129.6 127.6 130.6 129.0 131.1 127.9 129.9 1966... 1967... 112.4 116.2 113.5 116.9 114.5 118.1 115.4 119.4 113.9 117.6 224. DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS 2 (ANN. RATEI BIL. DOL.) AVERAGE ... 225. DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN CONSTANT (1958) 2 DOLLARS (ANN. RATE, BIL. DOL.) AVERAGE 1945... 1946... 1947... ... 153.3 167.1 ... 157.4 165.1 162^9 172.4 ... 166.5 174.9 150.2 160.0 169.8 1945... 1946... 1947... ... 233.4 219.3 ... 235.6 215.0 ... 223.7 220.2 21711 217.8 229.7 227.0 218.0 1948... 1949... 1950... 180.3 189.0 202.2 187.8 188.3 201.5 194.4 187.9 209.0 194.2 189.4 214.7 189.1 188.6 206.9 1948... 1949... 1950... 222.4 229.7 248.7 229.1 230.2 246.7 233.3 231.1 250.3 234.0 232.7 252.9 229.8 230.8 249.6 1951... 1952... 1953... 220.8 231.7 249.2 226.0 234.4 253.4 227.9 240.9 253.8 231.2 245.8 254.0 226.6 238.3 252.6 1951... 1952... 1953... 251.2 257.4 273.0 256.3 260.2 276.9 257.5 265.9 275.9 257.7 269.5 276.1 255.7 263.3 275.4 1954... 1955... 1956... 255.3 266.2 286.4 254.7 272.6 290.7 257.3 278.9 294.6 262.4 283.2 300.8 257.4 275.3 293.2 1954... 1955... 1956... 275.7 287.4 305.9 275.1 294.4 308.3 278.5 300.2 309.2 284.3 304.5 314.0 278.3 296.7 309.3 1957... 1958... 1959... 303.8 312.2 331.2 307.4 314.5 337.9 311.6 321.8 337.9 311.7 326.7 342.1 308.5 318.8 337.3 1957... 1958... 1959... 314.2 313.5 329.3 315.9 314.5 334.9 317.7 321.5 332.6 316.5 325.7 335.4 315.8 318.8 333.0 1960... 1961... 1962... 346.6 354.8 378.9 350.4 360.6 384.0 352.1 366.9 386.9 351.7 374.7 390.8 350.0 364.4 385.3 1960... 1961... 1962... 338.8 341.8 362.6 341.2 347.7 366.8 341.8 352.8 368.5 339.5 359.6 371.1 340.2 350.7 367.3 1963... 1964... 1965... 396.7 423.9 455.9 400.7 435.8 464.7 406.9 443.1 480.8 414.1 449.6 491.6 404.6 438.1 473.2 1963... 1964... 1965... 375.7 396.6 421.3 378.0 406.2 427.1 383.1 412.6 441.1 388.1 417.0 449.8 381.3 407.9 435.0 1966... 1967... 499.9 534.4 506.0 541.6 515.9 550.3 525.6 559.8 511.9 546.5 1966... 1967... 453.5 471.6 454.7 476.0 461.2 479.4 466.1 483.7 458.9 477.7 •'•See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. Historical data for these series have not previously been shown. 106 (AUGUST 1969) C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. Seethe "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol <g) (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report. Quarterly Quarterly Year 1 II III Annual IV 226. PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS ( A N N . RATEi DOLLARS) ... ... Year AVERAGE 1 II III IV 227. PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN CONSTANT ( 1 9 5 8 ) DOLLARS ( A N N . RATE, DOLLARS) Annual AVERAGE 1945... 1946... 1947... 1,167 ... ... 1,148 ... ... 1,193 ... ... 1.2C5 1,074 1,132 1,178 1945... 1946... 1947... ... ... 1,532 ... • •• 1,495 ... ... 1,524 ... ... 1,501 1,642 1,606 1,513 1948... 1949... 1950... 1,237 1,274 1,340 1,283 1,265 1,331 1,323 1,257 1,375 1,315 1,261 1,406 1,290 1,264 1,364 1948... 1949... 195C... 1,526 1,549 1,649 1,566 1,546 1,630 1,587 1,546 1,646 1,585 1,549 1,656 1,567 1,547 1,646 1951... 1952... 1953... 1,440 1,485 1,571 1,468 1,496 1,591 ,474 ,531 ,587 1,488 1,555 1,581 1,469 1,518 1,583 1951... 1952... 1953... 1,638 1,650 1,721 1,665 1,661 1,739 1,665 1,690 1,725 1,658 1,705 1,718 1,657 1,678 1,726 1954... 1955... 1956... 1,582 1,621 1,713 1,572 1,653 1,732 ,581 ,683 ,747 1,6C4 1,701 1,775 1,585 1,666 1,743 1954... 1955... 1956... 1,708 1,750 1,830 1,698 1,785 1,837 1,711 1,812 1,833 1,738 1,829 1,853 1,714 1,795 1,839 1957... 1958... 1959... 1,785 1,803 1,881 1,799 1,810 1,912 I t 81.5 1,844 1,904 1,8C7 1,863 1,919 1,801 1,831 1,905 1957... 1958... 1959... 1,846 1,811 1,870 1,848 1,810 1,895 1,850 1,842 1,874 1,835 1,857 1,881 1,844 1,831 1,881 I960... 1961... 1962... 1,929 1,942 2,041 1,943 1,966 2,061 1,944 1,992 2,068 1,933 2,026 2,081 1,937 1,983 2,064 1960... 1961... 1962... 1,885 1,871 1,953 1,892 1,896 1,969 1,887 1,916 1,970 1,866 1,944 1,976 1,883 1,909 1,968 1963... 1964... 1965... 2,105 2,217 2,353 2,119 2,272 2,392 2,144 2,302 2,466 2,173 2,327 2,513 2,136 2,280 2,432 1963... 1964... 1965... 1,994 2,175 1,999 2,118 2,198 2,018 2,143 2,263 2,037 2,075 2,158 2,300 2,013 2,123 2,235 1966... 1967... 2,549 2,694 2,574 2,724 2,616 2,760 2,656 2,799 2,599 2,745 1966... 1967... 2,313 2,378 2,313 2,394 2,339 2,404 2,356 2,419 2,331 2,399 230. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES t TOTAL, IN CURRENT DOLLARS ( A N N . RATE, B I L . DOL. ) 1945... 1946... 1947... ... 134.3 155.0 ... 139.3 158.9 ... 147.9 162.5 152II 1948... 1949... 1950... 169.1 175.4 181.7 172.8 176.8 185.8 175.7 176.2 199.4 1951... 1952... 1953... 207.5 210.4 228.4 202.9 214.6 230.1 1954... 1955... 1956... 232.3 247.7 262.0 1957... 1958... 1959... AVERAGE 231. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, TOTAL, IN CONSTANT (1958) DOLLARS ( A N N . RATE, B I L . DOL.) ... ... 166.5 119.7 143.4 160.7 1945... 1946... 1947... 176.6 178.8 197.0 173.6 176.8 191.0 1948... 1949... 1950... 205.4 216.7 231.0 209.2 225.0 230.3 206.3 1951... 1952... 1953... 236.0 233.7 230.0 234.6 252.7 264.4 237.3 256.8 267.5 241.8 260.4 272.8 236.5 254.4 266.7 277.2 284.5 304.0 279.3 287.4 309.8 283.8 292.2 285.4 296.2 314.8 316.3 1960... 1961... 1962... 321.1 328.4 348.3 326.3 332.3 351.7 325.9 336.7 357.2 327.7 1963... 1964... 1965... 368.2 391.7 419.8 372.0 397.6 427.9 378.3 406.6 436.3 1966... 1967... 457.8 480.9 461.9 471.2 489.8 495.7 Note: ... ... ... ... ... ... 203.4 207.0 207.4 207.3 203.5 206.3 208.5 210.7 216.3 227.6 211.1 216.8 238.8 212.8 219.7 232.1 210.8 216.5 230.5 230.0 238.1 251.5 232.0 250.1 239.1 251.1 233.3 246.8 250.4 232.8 239.4 250.8 1954... 1955... 1956... 250.8 267.6 279.8 253.3 273.0 280.3 256.9 276.3 280.8 261.9 279.9 284.7 255.7 274.2 281.4 290.1 311.2 1957... 1958... 1959... 286.6 285.6 302.3 287.0 287.5 307.0 289.3 288.2 291.9 289.7 295.2 309.9 310.0 290.1 307.3 325.2 335.2 355.1 1960... 1961... 1962... 313.8 316.2 333.3 317.7 320.4 335.7 316.4 323.9 340.1 316.4 329.5 344.6 316.1 322.5 338.4 375.0 401.2 432.8 1963... 1964... 1965... 348.5 366.3 387.9 350.9 370.7 393.4 356.1 408.9 447.4 378.6 400.3 357.7 379.3 409.2 353.3 373.7 397.7 474.5 502.6 466.3 492.3 1966... 1967.., 415.3 424.4 415.1 430.5 421.3 431.9 420.7 434.3 418.1 430.3 343.1 363.0 381.5 216.7 Historical data for these series have not previously been shown. AVERAGE 213.2 223.5 183.0 281.4 (AUGUST 1969) 107 C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report. Quarterly Quarterly Year 1 II Ill IV 232. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION E X P E N D I T U R E S ! DURABLE GOODS f IN CURRENT DOLLARS ( A N N . RATE, B I L . DOL. ) Annual AVERAGE Year 1 II III IV 233. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, DURABLE GOODS EXCEPT AUTOMOBILES, I N CURRENT DOLLARS (ANN. RATE, BIL. DOL.) Annual AVERAGE 1945... 1946... 1947... ... 12.6 19.3 ... 14.7 19.9 ... 17.0 20.4 8.0 15.8 20.4 1945... 1946... 1947... ... ... ... 21.9 15.0 15^2 16.0 16.7 ... 15.7 1948... ',949... L95J... 21.9 22.5 27.4 22.3 24.4 27.9 23.4 25.3 35.3 23.1 26.3 31.4 22.7 24.6 3li.5 1948... 1949... 1950... 16.1 15.5 17.3 17.0 15.6 17.3 17.4 16.2 22.4 16.5 17.1 19.4 16.7 16.1 19.1 1951... 1952... 1953... 33.6 28.8 33.5 28.6 29.1 33.5 28.1 27.5 33.4 28.3 32.0 32.6 29.6 29.3 33.2 1951... 1952... 1953... 21.7 19.7 20.9 18.5 19.7 20.8 18.9 20.0 20.7 19.6 20.9 20.5 19.7 20.1 20.7 1954... 1955... 1956... 32.0 37.4 38.5 32.5 39.6 38.6 32.5 41.4 38.4 34.2 40.1 40.2 32.8 39.6 38.9 1954... 1955... 1956... 2'J.3 22.4 24.0 20.4 22.8 24.9 20.8 23.7 25.0 21.5 23.8 25.4 20.7 23.2 24.8 1957... 1958... 1959... 41.4 37,9 42.8 40.9 36.8 45.0 40.6 37.7 45.8 40.2 39.1 43.6 40.8 37.9 44.3 1957... 1958... 1959... 25.2 24.9 26.7 25.0 24.5 27.8 25.5 25.4 28.3 24.8 26.0 28.7 25.1 25.2 27.9 I960... 1961... 1962... 45.9 41.9 48.5 46.1 43.4 48.5 45.3 44.8 50.1 43.8 46.6 51.1 45.3 44.2 49.5 I960... 1961... 1962... 28.3 27.5 30.5 28.5 28.5 30.1 28.0 29.1 31.1 27.8 30. C 31.4 28.1 28.8 30.8 1963... 1964... 1965... 52.4 57.9 65.4 53.2 59.6 64.4 54.5 60.7 66.5 55.6 58.7 68.9 53.9 59.2 66.3 1963... 1964... 1965... 32.1 36.2 39.0 32.7 37.6 39.1 33.8 37.9 40.9 34.6 38.4 43.1 33.3 37.5 40.5 1966... 1967... 71.2 73.0 68.5 73.5 71.3 73.3 71.9 75.2 70.8 73.0 1966... 1967... 44.4 46.9 44.5 47.6 46.2 47.9 46.5 50. 0 45.4 48.1 isli 234. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION E X P E N D I T U R E S , AUTOMOBILES, TN CURRENT DOLLARS (ANN. RATE, B I L . DOL.) 1945... 1946... 1947... 4.3 4.7 4.4 1948... 1949... 1950... 5.8 7.0 10.1 5.3 8.8 10.6 6,0 9.1 12.9 1951... 1952... 1953... 11.9 9.1 12.6 10.1 9.4 12.7 1954... 1955... 1956... 11.7 15.0 14.5 1957... 1958... 1959... AVERAGE 236. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION E X P E N D I T U R E S , NONDURABLE GOODS, IN CURRENT DOLLARS ( A N N . RATE, B I L . DOL.) AVERAGE 5.2 ... ... 4.7 1945... 1946... 1947... 78^6 87.3 80^2 89.7 84.8 91.6 85.9 93.2 71.9 82.4 90.5 6.6 9.2 12.0 5.9 8.5 11.4 1948... 1949... 1950... 94.7 96.0 94.6 96.6 95.0 96.2 96.7 93.2 100.8 96.9 94.0 109.8 96.2 94.5 98.1 9.2 7,5 12.7 8.7 11.1 12.1 10.0 9.3 12.5 1951... 1952... 1953... 107.6 110.8 117.2 107.0 113.0 117.2 109.0 115.1 116.5 111.4 117.0 116.3 108. U 114.0 116.8 12.1 16.8 13.7 11.7 17.7 13.4 12.7 16.3 14.8 12.0 16.5 14.1 1954... 1955... 1956... 117.4 120.8 127.6 117.4 122.6 128.5 118.4 123.7 129.8 119.8 126.1 131.2 118.3 123.3 129.3 16.2 13.0 16.1 15.9 12.3 17.2 15.1 12.3 17.5 15.4 13.1 14.9 15.7 12.7 16.5 1957... 1958... 1959... 132.9 137.8 144.4 134.3 139.3 145.7 137.7 141.2 147.3 137.4 142.3 149.1 135.6 140.2 146.6 1960... 1961... 1962... 17.6 14.4 18.0 17.6 14.9 18.4 17.3 15.7 19.0 16.0 16.6 19.7 17.1 15.4 18.8 I960... 1961... 1962... 149.4 154.1 160.2 152.0 154.7 161.6 151.3 156.1 163.2 152.5 158.7 165.3 151.3 155.9 162.6 1963... 1964... 1965... 20.3 21.7 26.4 20.5 22.0 25.3 20.7 22.8 25.6 21. G 20.3 25.8 20.6 21.7 25.8 1963... 1964... 1965... 167.1 174.6 184.4 168.0 175.9 189.7 169.9 181.3 192.4 169.6 182.9 197.8 168.6 178.7 191.1 1966... 1967... 26.8 23.1 24.0 25.9 25.1 25.4 25.4 25.2 25.3 24.9 1966... 1967... 202.6 213.2 206.4 214.4 209.6 215.8 209.1 216.8 206.9 215.1 Note: 108 ... Historical data for these series have not previously been shown. (AUGUST 1969) C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report. Quarterly Quarterly Year 237. 1 Annual II III Year IV PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, SERVICES, IN CURRENT DOLLARS (ANN. R A T E , BIL. DOL.) AVERAGE 2*40. 1 Annual II III IV GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT, TOTAL (ANN. RATE, BIL. DOL.) AVERAGE 1945... 1946... 1947... ... 43.1 48.3 ... 44.4 49.3 ... 46.1 50.4 *.. 47.5 51.3 39.8 45.3 49.8 1945... 1946... 1947... ... 24.5 32.8 ... 31.5 31.6 31.7 ... 33.9 39.8 10.6 30.6 34.0 1948... 1949... 1950... 52.6 56.9 59.8 54.0 57.5 61.7 55.6 57.7 63.4 56.5 58.5 64.8 54,7 57.6 62.4 1948... 1949... 1950... 43.4 39.6 44.0 46.2 33.1 50.8 48.1 36.2 55.8 46.3 33.8 65.8 46.0 35.7 54.1 1951... 1952... 1953... 66.3 70.9 77.8 67.3 72.5 79.5 68.4 74.2 81.1 69.5 76.0 81.4 67.9 73.4 79.9 1951... 1952... 1953... 61.0 54.2 54.2 64.1 47.4 55.4 58.8 50.9 53.2 53.4 55.1 47.5 59.3 51.9 52.6 1954... 1955... 1956... 82.9 89.5 95.8 84.6 90.4 97.4 86.3 91.7 99.3 87.7 94.2 101.4 85.4 91.4 98.5 1954... 1955... 1956... 48.7 62.3 69.9 49.7 66.9 69.4 51.9 69.0 70.3 56.6 71.3 70.4 51.7 67.4 70.9 1957... 1958... 1959... 102.8 108.9 116.8 104.1 111.3 119.1 105.6 113.3 121.7 107.8 114.7 123.6 105.0 112.0 120.3 1957... 1958... 1959... 68.5 57.3 72.1 68.5 55.7 80.4 70.4 61.4 72.2 64.0 68.8 77.2 67.8 60.9 75.3 196)... 1961... 1962... 125.7 132.4 139.6 128.1 134.2 141.6 129.3 135.8 144.0 131.4 137.8 146.7 128.7 135.1 143.0 I960... 1961... 1962... 82.5 64.3 80.6 76.0 70.2 82.8 73.5 74.2 84.3 67.6 77.9 84.7 74.8 71.7 83.0 1963... 1964... 1965... 148.7 159.2 170.0 150.8 162.1 173.8 153.9 164.6 177.4 156.3 167.3 180.7 152.4 163.3 175.5 1963... 1964... 1965... 82.7 90.8 105.3 85.1 93.4 105.3 88.0 94.2 108.7 92.9 97.9 113.2 87.1 94.0 108.1 1966... 1967... 183.9 197.7 186.9 201.8 190.2 206.6 193.5 210.6 188.6 204.2 1966... 1967... 117.5 113.6 122.4 109.4 119.6 117.7 126.2 123.3 121.4 116.0 241. GROSS P R I V A T E DOMESTIC FIXED INVESTMENT, TOTAL NONRESIDENTIAL (ANN. RATE, BIL. DOL.) 1945... 1946... 1947... 13ll 22.9 15l7 23.1 1948... 1949... 1950... 26.1 26.6 24.4 26.1 25.7 26.7 1951... 1952... 1953... 31.0 32.3 33.6 1954... 1955... 1956... AVERAGE 32.1*5 242. GROSS P R I V A T E DOMESTIC FIXED INVESTMENT, NONRESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES (ANN. RATE, BIL. DOL.) AVERAGE 23.2 2ol7 24.4 10.1 17.0 23.4 1945... 1946... 1947... ... 5.6 7.3 6.8 7.3 ... 7.3 7.6 ... 7.4 7.7 2.8 6.8 7.5 27.1 24.3 29.8 28.2 23.8 30.7 26.9 25.1 27.9 1948... 1949... 195C... 8.1 9.0 8.4 8.7 8.7 8.8 9.2 8.2 9.5 9.4 8.0 10.3 8.8 8.5 9.2 31.8 32.7 33.9 32.4 29.6 34.7 32.0 31.9 34.4 31.8 31.6 34.2 1951... 1952... 1953... 10.7 11.2 12.2 11.4 11.3 12.6 11.5 11.4 12.8 11.1 11.8 13.0 11.2 11.4 12.7 33.5 34.4 42.0 33.5 36.9 43.1 33.8 39.5 44.7 33.8 41.7 45.0 33.6 38.1 43.7 1954... 1955... 1956... 13.1 13.5 16.5 13.0 14.0 17.0 13.1 14.6 17.7 13.1 15.2 17.8 13.1 14.3 17.2 1957... 1958... 1959... 45.9 43.0 43.0 46.0 41.2 45.2 47.2 40.5 46.2 46.3 41.7 46. C 46.4 41.6 45.1 1957... 1958... 1959... 17.8 17.3 16.0 18.1 16.7 16.6 18.1 16.1 17.1 17.9 16.2 17.0 18.0 16.6 16.7 I960... 1961... 1962... 47.8 46.0 49.5 49.0 46.0 51.3 48.4 47.5 53.1 48.4 48.6 52.7 48.4 47.0 51.7 I960... 1961... 1962... 18.2 18.4 18.5 17.9 18.3 19.2 17.8 18.4 19.7 18.6 18.4 19.5 18.1 18.4 19.2 1963... 1964... 1965... 52.0 58.3 67.1 53.5 60.1 69.5 55.0 62.4 72.4 56.8 63.4 76.2 54.3 61.1 71.3 1963... 1964... 1965... 18.8 20.4 23.4 19.7 21.1 25.1 19.4 21.4 25.8 19.9 21.8 27.8 19.5 21.2 25.5 1966... 1967... 78.8 83.3 80.3 83.0 83.0 83.5 84.2 85.0 81.6 83.7 1966... 1967... 28.6 29.0 28.2 27.2 29.0 27.8 28.2 27.8 28.5 27.9 Note: isli Historical data for these series have not previously been shown. (AUGUST 1969) 109 C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report. Quarterly Quarterly Year 1 II III IV 243. GROSS P R I V A T E DOMESTIC FIXED INVESTMENT, PRODUCERS' DURABLE EQUIPMENT (ANN. RATE, BIL. D O L . ) 1 Annual AVERAGE Year 1 Annual II III IV 244. GROSS P R I V A T E DOMESTIC FIXED INVESTMENT. RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES (ANN. RATE, BIL. DOL.ji 1 1945... 1946... 1947... ... 7.5 15.5 ... 8.9 15.7 ... 11.1 15.6 ... 13.4 16.7 7.3 10.2 15.9 1945... 1946... 1947... 5^5 9.5 7^0 9.5 1948... 1949... 1950... 18.0 17.6 15.9 17.4 17.0 17.9 17.9 16.1 20.3 18.8 15.7 20.4 18.1 16.6 18.7 1948... 1949... 195C... 14.0 13.0 17.2 1951... 1952... 1953... 20.2 21.1 21.4 20.5 21.4 21.3 20.9 18.2 21.9 20.9 20.1 21.3 20.7 20.2 21.5 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 20.4 20.9 25.6 20.4 23.0 26.1 20.7 24.9 27.0 20.7 26.5 27.2 20.6 23.8 26.5 1957... 1958... 1959... 28.1 25.7 27.0 28.0 24.5 28.7 29.1 24.4 29.1 28.3 25.5 29.0 1960... 1961... 1962... 29.6 27.6 31.0 31.2 27.7 32.1 30.6 29.0 33.5 1963... 1964... 1965... 33.2 37.9 43.7 33.8 39.0 44.4 1966... 1967... 50.2 54.2 52.1 55.8 AVERAGE •.. 8.0 11.3 l\5 13.9 1.5 7.2 11.1 15.0 12.8 19.3 14.9 13.6 21.1 13.8 15.3 20.0 14.4 13.7 19.4 19.5 16.7 18.2 17.1 17.1 18.3 16.0 17.1 17.8 16.3 17.8 17.6 17.2 17.2 18.0 1954... 1955... 1956... 17.8 23.3 21.8 18.9 23.9 22.0 20.3 23.5 21.5 21.6 22.5 21.1 19.7 23.3 21.6 28.4 25.0 28.4 1957... 1958... 1959... 20.5 19.7 25.3 20.1 19.5 26.1 20.0 20.8 25.6 20.0 23.0 24.8 20.2 20.8 25.5 29.8 30.3 33.2 30.3 28.6 32.5 1960... 1961... 1962... 24.7 21.7 24.4 23.1 22.1 25.4 22.0 22.9 26.0 21.6 23.8 25.6 22.8 22.6 25.3 35.5 41.0 46.6 36.8 41.6 48.3 34.8 39.9 45.8 1963... 1964... 1965... 26.1 27.6 27.4 26.8 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.0 27.2 28.0 26.8 27.4 27.0 27.1 27.2 54.0 55.7 56.0 57.2 53.1 55.7 1966... 1967... 27.4 21.4 26.0 23.1 24.7 26.5 22.1 28.8 25.0 25.0 245. GROSS P R I V A T E DOMESTIC INVESTMENT, CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES AFTER VALUATION ADJUSTMENT, ALL INDUSTRIES (ANN. R A T E , BIL. DOL.) 2 - AVERAGE 250. NET EXPORTS OF GOODS AND TRANSFERS UNDER M I L I T A R Y GRANTS SERVICES, EXCLUDING1 (ANN. RATE jBlL.DOL.) ••. AVERAGE 1945.. .~ 1946... 1947... ... 5.9 0.4 ... 8.8 -1.0 ... 6.1 -2.7 ... 4.7 1.4 -1.0 6.4 -0.5 1945... 1946... 1947... ... 6.8 11.5 ... 7.6 12.0 8.8 12.5 ... 6.8 10.1 -0.6 7.5 11.5 1948... 1949... 1950... 3.3 0.0 2.4 5.1 -5.3 4.8 6.1 -1.7 4.9 4.3 -5.3 15.1 4.7 -3.1 6.8 1948... 1949... 1950... 8.2 7.4 3.1 6.2 7.2 2.6 5.9 6.1 0.5 5.5 3.8 1.0 6.4 6.1 1.8 1951... 1952... 1953... 10.5 5.2 2.4 15.2 -2.3 3.2 10.4 4.3 0.7 5.1 5.4 -4.5 10.3 3.1 0.4 1951... 1952... 1953... 1.1 4.8 0.5 3.1 3.0 0.1 5.0 1.1 0.3 5.5 0.0 0.6 3.7 2.2 0.4 1954... 1955... 1956... -2.5 4.6 6.0 -2.7 6.1 4.3 -2.2 6.0 4.1 1.3 7.1 4.3 -1.5 6.0 4.7 1954... 1955... 1956... 1.1 2.8 2.3 1.7 1.6 3.8 1.9 2.0 4.1 2.7 1.6 5.6 1.8 2.0 4.0 1957... 1958... 1959... 2.1 -5.4 3.9 2.3 -5.1 9.1 3.2 0.1 0.4 -2.2 4.1 6.3 1.3 -1.5 4.8 1957... 1958... 1959... 6.6 2.6 0.2 6.3 2.4 -0.8 5.5 2.4 0.4 4.5 1.4 0.7 5.7 2.2 0.1 i960... 1961... 1962... 9.9 -3.5 6.7 3.9 2.1 6.1 3.1 3.8 5.2 -2.4 5.5 6.4 3.6 2.0 6.0 1960... 1961... 1962... 2.4 6.6 4.6 3.5 5.6 5.7 4.3 4.9 5.3 6.0 5.3 4.9 4.0 5.6 5.1 1963... 1964... 1965... 4.7 4.8 10.9 4.8 6.1 8.9 6.0 4.8 9.1 8.1 7.7 9.7 5.9 5.8 9.6 1963... 1964... 1965... 4.6 8.9 6.2 6.2 7.8 8.1 5.6 8.7 7.3 7.1 8.5 6.0 5.9 8.5 6.9 1966... 1967... 11.3 9.0 16.2 3.4 11.9 7.8 19.9 9.5 14.8 7.4 1966... 1967... 6.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 4.4 5.6 4.9 3.8 5.3 5.2 Historical data for these series have not previously been shown. 2 Data are revised beginning with 1966. 110 (AUGUST 1969) C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been added to the report, (b) series which have been revised' recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol <§) (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report. Quarterly Quarterly Year 1 III II IV 252. EXPORTS OF GOODS AND S E R V I C E S , E X C L U D I N G TRANSFERS U N D E R M I L I T A R Y GRANTS ( A N N . R A T E , B I L . D O L . ) Annual Year 1 253. AVERAGE Annual IV III II IMPORTS OF GOODS AND S E R V I C E S (ANN. R A T E , B I L . DOL.) AVERAGE 1945... 1946... 1947... ... 13.6 19.3 ... 14.8 20.5 16.1 20.4 18.7 7.2 14.7 19.7 1945... 1946... 1947... ... 6.8 7.8 7^2 8.5 ... 7.3 7.9 ... 7.6 8.7 7.9 7.2 8.2 1948... 1949... 1950... 18.1 17.4 13.0 16.5 17.0 13.2 16.7 15.5 13.9 15.9 13.3 15.1 16.8 15.8 13.8 1948... 1949... 1950... 9.9 10.0 9.9 10.3 9.7 10.6 10.8 9.3 13.5 10.4 9.4 14.1 10.3 9.6 12.0 1951... 1952... 1953... 16.4 20.2 16.7 18.8 18.2 16.9 19.7 16.8 17.2 20.0 16.8 16.9 18.7 18.0 16.9 1951... 1952... 1953... 15.4 15.4 16.2 15.7 15.1 16.8 14.8 15.7 16.9 14.4 16.8 16.3 15.1 15.8 16.6 1954... 1955... 1956... 16.3 19.5 21.9 18.3 19.0 23.3 17.6 20.1 24.2 18.7 20.5 25.0 17.8 19.8 23.6 1954... 1955... 1956... 15.3 16.7 19.6 16.6 17.4 19.4 15.8 18.1 20.0 16.1 18.9 19.4 15.9 17.8 19.6 1957... 1958... 1959... 27.5 22.9 22.4 27.1 23.0 22.7 26.2 23.0 24.4 25.2 23.3 24.4 26.5 23.1 23.5 1957... 1958... 1959... 20.9 20.3 22.2 20.8 20.6 23.4 20.7 20.7 24.0 20.6 21.9 23.7 20.8 20.9 23.3 I960... 1961... 1962... 26.1 28.6 29.2 27.4 27.8 30.9 27.5 28.5 30.6 28.0 29.4 30.4 27.2 28.6 30.3 I960... 1961... 1962... 23.7 22.0 24.6 23.9 22.2 25.2 23.3 23.6 25.3 21.9 24.0 25.6 23.2 23.0 25.1 1963... 1964... 1965... 30,1 36.5 35.2 32.4 36.1 40.8 32.5 37.5 40.3 34.3 38.3 40.5 32.3 37.1 39.2 1963... 1964... 1965... 25.5 27.6 29.0 26.2 28.3 32.7 26.9 28.8 33.0 27.1 29.8 34.5 26.4 28.6 32.3 1966... 1967... 42.2 45.8 42.7 45.9 43.7 46.3 44.8 46.7 43.4 46.2 1966... 1967... 36.0 40.4 37.1 40.1 39.3 40.7 39.9 42.8 38.1 41.0 260. lili GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND S E R V I C E S , TOTAL ( A N N . RATE, B I L . D O L . ) AVERAGE 262. F E D E R A L G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S OF GOODS AND S E R V I C E S , TOTAL ( A N N . R A T E , B I L . D O L . ) AVERAGE 74.2 17.2 12.5 I t 947... ... 30.9 24.2 ... 25.6 25.1 25^0 25.2 ... 26.4 25.8 82.3 27.0 25.1 1945... 1946... 1947... ... 22.2 12.4 ... 16.3 12.9 ... 14.9 12.4 ... 15.5 12.4 1948... 1949... 19<50... 27.3 36.1 37.2 30.3 38.0 36.2 32.8 38.5 37.4 35.6 38.6 40.7 31.6 37.8 37.9 1948... 1949... 1950... 13.5 19.4 18.4 15.7 20.6 17.1 17.3 20.3 17.7 19.5 20.1 20.5 1951... 1952... 1953... 48.5 70. C 81.0 55.6 74.1 81.9 63.6 76.9 81.2 68.7 77.6 82.3 59.1 74.7 81.6 1951... 1952... 1953... 27.8 47.8 56.9 34.3 51.1 57.8 41.8 54.1 56.5 46.7 54.2 56.9 37.7 51.8 57.0 1954... 1955... 1956... 78.6 73.4 76.4 74.3 73.2 78.5 73.7 74.6 78.7 72.4 75.5 80.7 75.0 74.2 78.6 1954... 1955... 1956... 52.3 44.0 44.5 47.4 43.3 45.8 45.7 44.4 45.3 44.1 44.7 46.6 47.4 44.1 45.6 1957... 1958... 1959... 84.6 90.2 97.7 85.8 92.8 97.5 86.6 95.4 96.6 87.5 98.0 96.4 86.1 94.2 97.0 1957... 1958... 1959... 49.3 51.3 54.6 49.6 52.9 54.1 49.7 54.3 53.1 49.6 55.9 52.9 49.5 53.6 53.7 1960... 1961... 1962... 97.0 104.3 114.4 98.8 106.7 117.0 100.4 108.4 117.4 101.9 111.3 119.3 99.6 107.6 117.1 1960... 1961... 1962... 52.7 55.4 61.9 53.0 57.3 64.0 53.9 57.8 63.3 54.6 59.2 64.4 53.5 57.4 63.4 1963... 1964... 1965... 121.9 126.4 131.5 120.9 129.2 134.4 122.9 129.4 138.9 124.3 129.8 143.3 122.5 128.7 137.0 1963... 1964... 1965... 65.0 65.0 64.4 63.4 66.0 65.5 64.2 65.2 67.6 64.4 64.5 70.1 64.2 65.2 66.9 1966... 1967... 148.0 174.2 153.4 178.5 160.7 181.3 165.2 186.4 156.8 180.1 1966... 1967... 72.8 87.8 75.6 90.3 80.5 91.3 82.1 93.5 77.8 90.7 1945... ) 9 4 6 r ?. Note: 16.5 . 20.1 18.4 Historical data for these series have not previously been shown. (AUGUST 1969) 111 E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1961 Duration in months Trough Cycle Contraction (trough from previous peak) Business cycle reference dates Expansion (trough to peak) Trough from previous trough Peak from previous peak Peak December 1854 December 1858 June 1861 December 1867 December 1870 March 1879 June 1857 .October 1860 .April 1865 June 1869 October 1873 .March 1882 May 1885 April 1888 May 1891 June 1894 June 1897 December 1900 (x) 18 8 32 13 65 30 22 46 15 34 36 (x) 48 30 78 36 99 (x) 40 54 50 52 101 March 1887 July 1890 January 1893 . December 1895 June 1899 September 1902 . 38 13 10 17 18 18 22 27 20 18 24 21 74 35 37 37 36 42 60 40 30 35 42 39 August 1904 June 1908 January 1912 December 1914 March 1919 July 1921 .May 1907 23 13 24 23 7 18 33 19 12 44 10 22 44 46 43 35 51 28 56 32 36 67 17 40 July 1924 November 1927 March 1933 June 1938. October 1945 . October 1949 • October 1926 August 1929 . 14 13 43 13 8 11 27 21 50 80 37 45 36 40 64 63 88 Z8 41 34 93 93 75 56 13 ~9 9 35 25 48 34 (x) 58 44 34 Average, all cycles: 26 cycles, 1854-1961 . 10 cycles, 1919-1961 . 4 cycles, 1945-1961.. 19 15 10 30 35 36 49 50 46 Average, peacetime cycles: 22 cycles, 1854-1961 . 8 cycles, 1919-1%1 . . 3 cycles, 1945-1961 . . 20 16 10 26 28 32 45 45 42 August 1954 April 1958 February 1961 • January 1910 January 1913 August 1918 January 1920 May 1923 .May 1937 February 1945 November 1948 July 1953 July 1957 May 1960 (x) 149 54 3 46 2 4 5 6 46 48 42 NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean War), the postwar contractions,and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions. ^5 cycles, 1857-1960? 9 cycles, 1920-1960. 2 Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 112 3 4 4 cycles, 1945-1960. 21 cycles, 1857-1960. 5 7 cycles, 1920-1960. 63cyc|eSf 1945-1960. INDEX Series Finding Guide (See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles) Current issue (page numbers) Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence) (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) Series descriptions (issue date) A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT GNP in current dollars . GNP in 1958 dollars Implicit price deflator Per capita GNP in current dollars Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars : National income, current dollars 10 Personal income, current dollars 10 Disposable personal income, current dol. . .10 Disposable personal income, constant dol. . 10 Per capita disposable personal income, 10 current dollars "~^ ~ 227. Per capita disposable personal income, constant dollars ...... 10 220. 222. 224. 225. 226. (July'68# *200. GNP in current dollars 9,21,38 6,64,70 9,21,38,56 6,64,70,86 <July'68# *205. GNP in 1958 dollars *47. Industrial production 21,38,62 6,70,98 *52. Personal income 6,70 21,38 53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr . . .21 6,70 *56. Manufacturing and trade sales 6,70 22,38 57. Final sales 22 6,70 July '69 *54. Sales of retail stores 22,38 6,70 "\July'68# >Jan. '69 /Aug. '69 July '69 July '69 5,64 5,64 5,64 5,64 Aug. Aug. 5,64 Aug. '69 5,64 Aug. '69 July '69 '69 '69 230 Total current dollars 231. Total, constant dollars 11 11 11 Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars . 11 Automobiles, current dollars 11 Nondurable goods, current dollars 11 Services, current dollars 11 5,65 5,65 5,65 5,65 5,55 5,65 5,65 Aug. Aug. Aug. Aug. Aug. Aug. Aug. '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 5,65 5,65 5,65 5,65 5,65 5,65,73 Aug. Aug. Aug. Aug. Aug. Aug. '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 13,47 13,49 13,49 5,66,82 5,66,82 5,66,82 Aug. Aug. Aug. '69 '69 '69 253. Imports 'of goods and services Federal, State, and local governments Federal Government National defense State and local governments 14 14 14,53 14 5,66 5,66 Aug. Aug. 5,66,84 July '68# 15 5,66 5,66 5,66 15 5,66 Compensation of employees 16 Proprietors' income 16 Rental income of persons 16 Corp. profits and inventory valuation adj . .16 Net interest 16 5,66 5,66 5,66 5,67 5,67 24 24 24 24 24,36 6,71 6,71 6,72 6,72 6,72 Aug. '67 Sep. '68 May '67 May '68 June '68 6,72 6,72 7,72,78 Sep. Aug. Nov. '68 '67 '68 Nov. '68 7,72 Sep. '68# Sep. '68# Unfilled orders, durable goods industries . 25 Backlog of capital approp., manufacturing. 25 Business expend., new plant and equip . .25,39,40 Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures .... 25 245. *31. 37. 20. 26. Change in bus. inventories, all indus Change in mfg. and trade inventories Purchased materials, higher inventories. . Change in materials, supplies inventories Buying policy, production materials 32. 25. *71. 65. Vendor performance, slower deliveries. . . 27 Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods 27 Book value, mfg. and trade inventories. . .27,39 Book value, mfrs.' inven., finished goods. 27 98. 85 33 *113. Change in Change in Change in Change in money supply and time deposits money supply mortgage debt consumer installment debt 5,67 5,67 14. Liabilities of business failures 39 Del inouencv rate installment loans 5,67 5,67 5,67 B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS Bl. Employment and Unemployment *1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg. . . .18,36 *4. Nonagri. placements, all industries 18,36 18 5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance. . 18 3 Layoff rate manufacturing 18 6,68 6,68 6,68 6,68 6,68 Aug. Mar. Aug. Mar. Aug. '9. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled 19 '' Q !p-wanted advertising 19 ^ours in nonagri. establishments .... 19 19,38 ^ersons engaged in nonagri. activities . .19 . inpmDlovrnerU rate total 20,38 *vg. weekly insured unemploy. rate 20 Unemolovrnent rate married males 20 20,39 6,68 6,68 Mar. 6,69 6,69 6,69 6,69 6,69 6,69 6,69 '68 '69 '68 '69 '68 '68 June '69 Aug. '68 June '69 Aug. '68 '69 June '68 June '69 Aug. Aug. Mar. Mar. Dec. Mar. Mar. Aug. Aug. '68# '68 '69 '69 '67 '69 '69 'Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. New capital appropriations, manufacturing New orders, mach. and equip, industries. . Constr. contracts, com. and indus. Private nonfarm housing starts Apr. Mar. '68# Sep. '68 '68 Sep. '68 Sep. '68 . Sep. '68 Sep. '68 Apr. Apr. '69 '69 Sep. '68 12,26 26,37 26 26 26 7,65,73 July '68# July '68# '68 Feb. '69 '68 '68 Sep. '68 '68 7,73 7,73 7,73 7,73 Dec. Mar. Sep. Mar. 7,73 7,73 7,73 7,73 Jan. Sep. Jan. Sep. 7,74 Apr. '68 '68 '69 '68 Sep. Feb. Sep. '68 '69 '68 28,37 28,37,63 28,37 7,74 '69 Apr. '69 June ' 69 May '69 July '69 July '68 28 28 28,37 7,74 7,74 7,74 Mar. Nov. July '69 '69 '68 July '68 Mar. '69 Nov. '68 7,74,85 June '69 June '69 June '69 June '69 7,74 7,74 Dec. July '69 '68 July '68 Nov. '68 7,74,99 7,74 66. Money and Credit A9. Saving 290. Gross saving, private and government .... 17 292. Personal saving 17 294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment 17 296 Capital consumption allowances 17 298. Government surplus or deficit 17 11. 24. 9. 7. 6,71 6,71 6,71 6,71 6,71 55. Wholesale prices, indus. commodities^ . . 29 58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods'. . . 29,55 68. Labor cost per unit of gross product, nonfinancial corporations 29 *62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg ... 29,39 5. National Income Components ?80 282. 7 84. 286. 288. '69 July '68 Feb. 23,36 23 23,36 23 .23,36 *19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks *16. Corporate profits, after taxes 22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate, all industries 15. Profits per dollar of sales mfg *17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg 5,66 15 15 Index of net business formation New business incorporations New orders, durable goods industries Construction contracts, total value Contracts and orders, plant, equipment. . '69 B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits '69 *23. Industrial materials prices July '68# July '68# \7. Final Sales and Inventories 270 Final sales durable goods 271. Change in_ business inventories, durable goods >74. Fi nal sales, nondurable goodSi 75. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods May '69 July '69 May '69 '68# '68# '68 '68 ',68 B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment A6. Gov. Purchases, Goods and Services 260. 262. 264 266 *12 13. *6. 8. *10. 96. 97. *61. 69. A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment 240. 'Gross private domestic investment, total ,. 12 12 241 Nonresidential fixed investment 12 242 Nonresidential structures 12 243 Producers' durable equipment 12 244 residential structures 12,26 245. Cnange in business inventories July '68# July July '68# July Nov. Dec. '68 July '69 July July '69 July B3. Fixed Capital Investment V3. Personal Consumption Expenditures A5. Foreign Trade 250. Net exports of goods and services Tables B2. Production, Income, Consumption, Trade 9,21,38 5,64,70 9,21,38,56 5,64,70,86 9 5,64 9 5,64 9 5,64 A2. National and Personal Income *T?3. 234. 236. 237. Charts Historical Series data descriptions (issue date) (issue date) B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con Al. Gross National Product 200 205 210 215. 217. Current issue (page numbers) Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence) (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Aug. '68# '68 June '69 30 30 30 30,37 7,75 7,75 7,75 7,75 Aug. Aug. '68 '68 Mar. '69 Jan. '69 Aug. Aug. 30 31 31 31 7,75 7,75 7,75 7,75 June '69 Mar. '68 Feb. '69 June '69 July '64 July '64 32 32 32 32 7,76 7,76 7,76 7,76 Jan. Apr. 33 7,76 8,76 8,76 8,76 8,76 Jan. Jan. Apr. Jan. Jan. '68 '69 '69 '68 '68 34 34 34 35 35 35 35 35 6,77 6,77 6,77 6,77 6,77 6,77 6,77 6,77 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. '69 '69 «69 '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 93 114. 116. 115. Free reserves Treasury bill rate Corporate bond yields Treasury bond yields 117. 66. *72. *67. Municipal bond yields 32 Consumer installment debt 33 Com. and industrial loans outstanding . . 33,39 . Bank rates on short-term bus. loans 33,39 '68 '68 June '68 Jan. '68 '68 '68 July '64 July '64. July '64 July '64 July '64 July '64 B7. Composite Indexes 810. 820. 830 813. 814. 815. 816. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj.. . 5 coincident indicators 6 lagging indicators Marginal employment adjustments Capital investment commitments Inventory investment and purchasing .... Profitability i #The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. Nov. Nov. Nov. '68 '68 '68 113 Series Finding Guide-Continued (See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles) Current issue (page numbers) Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence) (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Tables Charts Series Historical data descriptions (issue date) (issue date) Current issue (page numbers) Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence) (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Charts Tables Historical Series data descriptions (issue date) (issue date) D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS-Con. C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS 03. Federal Government Activities—Con Cl. Aggregate Series 61 410 412. 414 416. Bus expend new plant and equip Manufacturers' sales total Mfrs.' inventories, book value Condition of mfrs ' inventories Adequacy of manufacturers' capacity 25,39,40 41 41 41 41 72,78 78 78 78 78 420. 425. 430 435 Household income compared to year ago. . Probability of change, household income. . New cars purchased by households Index of consumer sentiment 42 42 42 42 616. 621. 647. 648. 625. Defense Dept. obligations, total 53 Defense Dept. obligations, procurement. . . 53 New orders, defense products industries . .53 New orders, defense products 53 Military contract awards in U.S 53 '68 '68 '68 '68 '68 Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. '68 '68 '68 '68 '68 78 78 78 78 Mar. '69 Nov. '68 Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. '68 '68 '68 '68 43 43 43 43 79 79 79 79 Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. '69 '69 '69 '69 Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. '68 '68 '68 '68 Level of inventories, mfg. and trade 44 Selling prices, mfg. and trade 44 Selling prices, manufacturing 144 Sell ing prices, wholesale trade 44 Sell ing prices, retail trade ;... 44 79 79 79 79 79 Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. '68 '68 '68 '68 '68 El. 80 80 80 Feb. '69 Feb. '69 Feb. '69 Nov. Nov. Nov. '68 '68 '68 E2. Analytical Ratios Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. 8,84 8,84 8,84 84 8,84 Dec. '67# Dec. '67# Sep. '68# Sep. 8,85,97 85 85 85 May May May May 8,85 85,74 85 85 June June June June Aug. '68# '67# D4. Price Movements 781. 782. 783. 784 Consumer price Consumer price Consumer price Consumer price index, index, index, index 750. S8 751. 752 Wholesale price index, Wholesale orice index Wholesale price index, Wholesale price index all items food commodities services 54,61 54 54 54 '69 '69 '69 '69 May May May May '69 '69 '69 '69 C2. Diffusion Indexes 0442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade 0444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade 0446. Number of employees, mfg. and trade D450. 0460. 0462. 0464. 0466. 061. Bus. expend new plant and equip. D480. Freight carloadings 480. Change in freight carloadings 45 45 j45 D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS Dl. Foreign Trade 500 Merchandise trade balance 502. Exports, excluding military aid 506. Export orders, durable goods except motor vehicles 508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery . . 512. General imports 46 46 8,81 8,81 May '69 May '69 May '69 May '69 8,81 8,81 8,81 Aug. '68# Aug. '68# Apr. '69 May '69 May '69 8,82 July '69 May '69 8,82 July '69 May '69 82 July '69 May '69 47 13,47 82 5,66,82 July '69 July '69 May '69 May '69 48 82 July '69 48 48 13,49 13,49 82 82 82 82 July July July July 49 49 82 82 July '69 May '69 July '69 May '69 49 82 July '69 May '69 49 50 50 82 83 83 July '69 May '69 July '69 May '69 July '69 May '69 545 544 547. 546. 548. 549. Payments by U S. travelers abroad 50 Receipts from foreigners in U.S 50 U.S. military expenditures abroad 50 Military sales to foreigners 50 Receipts, transportation and services .... 50 Payments, transportation and services . . 50 . 83 83 83 83 83 83 July July July July July July '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 May May May May May May '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 561. 560. 565. 564. 570 575. U.S. direct investments abroad 51 Foreign direct investments in U.S 51 U.S. purchases of foreign securities 51 Foreign purchases of U.S. securities 51 Gov grants and capital transactions 51 Banking and other capital transactions . . 51 . 83 83 83 83 83 83 July July July July July July '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 May May May May May May '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 '69 8,84 8,84 8,84 8,66,84 July July July July '69 '69 '69 «68# July July July July 46 .46 46 D2. Balance of Payments and Components 520. U.S. balance of payments, liquidity balance basis 47 522. U.S. balance of payments, official settlements basis 47 525. Net capital movements, liquidity balance basis 47 527. Net capital movements, official settlements D3SJS . 250 Balance on goods and services 530 Liquid liabilities to foreigners 532. Liquid and nonliquid liabilities to foreign 534 U S official reserve assets 252. Exports of goods and services 536. Merchandise exports, adjusted 537 Merchandise imports adjusted 540. Investment income, military sales, and services, exports 541. Foreigner investment income, military'* expend., and services, imports 542. Income on U.S. investments abroad 543. Income on foreign investments in U.S . '69 '69 «69 '69 Fed. ba lance, nat'l income and prod. acct. .52 Fed. receipts, nat'l income and prod. acct. 52 Fed. expend., nat'l income and prod. acct. 52 National defense purchases 14,53 *Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. 114 '69 '69 ' 69 '69 205 Actual GNP in 1958 dollars 206. Potential GNP in 1958 dollars 207. GNP gap (potential less actual) 9,21,38,56 6,64,70,86 July '68# July '6 56 86 56 5,86 850, Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing . .57 851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade. 57 852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, durables 57 853. Ratio, prod, of bus. equip, to consumer goods 57 854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable 58 personal income 855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled to persons unemployed 58 858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm. 58 856. Real avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers. . 58 859. Real spendable average weekly earnings, nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers . 58 857. Vacancy rate, total rental housing 58 8,87 8,87 July '67 8,87 Sep. '68 Sep>, '68 Feb. '69 8,87 Dec. '68 Nov. '68 8,87 July '69 July '68 8,87 8,87 8,87 Mar. '69 Aug. '69 Aug. '69 June '68 June -'68 8,87 8,87 Aug. '&* Feb. '6d June '68 E3. Diffusion Indexes May '69 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 88,91 88,91 88 89 89,92 89,93 89,93 Sep. Oct. Aug. Oct. Apr. Apr. Apr. '68 '68 '67 '64 '69 '69 '69 May May May May 041.D47. 058. 054 Employees on nonagri. payrolls Industrial production Wholesale prices, manufactured goods Sales of retail stores 60 60 60 60 90,94 90,94 90,95 90,96 Sep. Dec. June Apr. '68 '68 '69 '65 54,61 61 61 61 61 61 61 85,97 97 97 97 97 97 97 May '68# Oct. '67 Oct. '67 Oct. '67 Oct. '67 Oct. '67 Oct. '67 21,38,62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 70,98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 Dec. July Nov. Nov. June Apr. June Nov. '68 '67 '67 '67 '68 '68 '68 '67 28,37,63 63 63 63 -. 63 63 63 74,99 99 99 99 99 99 99 Mar. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. '68 '67 '67 '67 '67 '6^; 'ftf ' '68# '68# '68# '68# '69 '69 '69 '69 E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg ... New orders, durable goods industries New capital appropriations, mfg Profits, manufacturing Stock prices, 500 common stocks Industrial materials prices Initial claims, State 'unemploy. insurance . '69 '69 '69 '69 June June June June Actual and Potential GNP 01. D6. Dll. 034. D19. 023. 05. D3. Federal Government Activities 600. 601. 602. 264. all commodities . . .55 mfd soods 29,55 proc. foods, feeds . 55 farm products 55 May '69 Apr. '6C June '6' June '£ F. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS F1. Consumer Price Indexes 781. United States 133 132 135 136 138 137 Canada United Kingdom West Germany France Japan Italy F2. Industrial Production Indexes 47 123 122. 126. 125 128 121 127 United States Canada United Kingdom France West Germany Japan OECD European countries Italy F3. Stock Price Indexes 19 United States 143 Canada 142 United Kingdom 146. France 145. West Germany 148. Japan 147. Italy #The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. Nov. '68 Titles and Sources of Series Within each of the six sections, series are listed in numerical order. The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. "M" indicates monthly series; "Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "EOM" (end of the month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter). The alphabetic-numeric designations following the series titles indicate all charts and tables in which the series may be found. See the table of contents for chart and table titles and Series Finding Guide for page numbers. The series in section B preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators, chart 68. Unless otherwise indicated, all series which require seasonal adjustment have been adjusted by their source. The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number and are obtained from the same sources. 244. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential structures (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A4) 245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories after valuation adjustment, all industries (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A4, B4) 250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers under military grants (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A5, D2) 252. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under military grants (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A5, D2) 253. Imports of goods and services (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A5, D2) 260. Government purchases of goods and services, total (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A6) A National Income and Product 200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (Al, B2, B8) 205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (Al, B2, B8, El) 10. Implicit price deflator, gross national product (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (Al) Per capita gross national product in current dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census (Al) 217. Per capita gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau o* the Census (Al) 220. rational income in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A2) 222. Personal income in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A2) 224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A2) 225. Disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A2) 226. Per capita disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A2) 227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A2) 230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A3) 231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1958 dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A3) 262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, total (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A6) 264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A6, D3) 266. State and local government purchases of goods and services, total (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A6) 270. Final sales, durable goods (Q). • Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A7) 271. Change in business inventories, durable goods (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A7) 274. Final sales, nondurable goods (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A7) 275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods (Q).. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A7) 280. Compensation of employees (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A8) 282. Proprietors' income (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A8) 284. Rental income of persons (Q). --Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A8) 286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A8) 288. Net interest (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A8) 290. Gross saving -- private saving plus government surplus or deficit (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A9) 232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A3) 292. Personal saving (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A9) 233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods except automobiles, in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A3) 294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A9) 234. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles, in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A3) 2%. Capital consumption allowances, corporate and noncorporate (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods, in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A3) 298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A9) 237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A3) 240. Gross private domestic investment, total (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A4) 241. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A4) 242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A4) 243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, producers' durable equipment (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A4) (A9) *10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (B3, B8) 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).--National Industrial Conference Board (B3,E3) *12. Index of net business formation (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (B3, B8) 13. Number of new business incorporations (M). - Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (B3) 14. Current liabilities of business failures (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (B6) 15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q). -- Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census (B5) *16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q)0 - Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (B5, B8) *17. Index of price per unit of labor cost -- ratio, index of wholesale prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) to seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of output (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. System (B5, B8) *19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M). - Standard and Poor's Corporation (B5, B8, E3, E4, F3) 20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies (M). •• Department of Commerce, Bureau of the the Census (B4) 22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (B5) *23. Index of industrial materials prices (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (B5, B8, E3, E4) 24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3) 25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census B Cyclical Indicators (B4) *1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (Bl, B8, E3, E4) 2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M). Bureau of Labor Statistics 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census (Bl, E3, E4) *6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (M). --Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3, B8, E3, E4) 7. New private nonfarm housing units started (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3) 8. Index of construction contracts, total value (M). - McGrawHill Information Systems Company. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (B3) 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space (M). -- McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (B3) Department of Labor, (Bl) 3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M), -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (Bl) *4. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census (Bl, B8) 26. Buying policy - production materials, percent of companies reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M). -- National Association of Purchasing Management (B4) *29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3, B8) *31. Change jn book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M)'. -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census (B4, B8) Continued on reverse 115 Titles and Sources of Series (Continued from page 115) 32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower deliveries (M). -- Chicago Purchasing Agents Association (B4) 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies (M). -- Institute of Life Insurance, Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal National Mortgage Association, National Association of Mutual Savings Banks, U.S. Savings and Loan League, and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census (B6) 37. Percent of companies reporting higher inventories of purchased materials (M). -- National Association of Purchasing Management; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census (B4) 39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over (EONI). -- American Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Bimonthly since December 1964) (B6) 40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M). •Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (Bl) *41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment survey (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (Bl, B8, E3, E4) 42. Total number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities, labor force survey (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (Bl) *43. Unemployment rate, total (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (Bl, B8) *44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (Bl, B8) 45 Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M). •- Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security(Bl) 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M). -- National Industrial Conference Board (Bl) 68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product (1958 dollars), nonfinancial corporations -- ratio of current-dollar compensation of employees to gross corporate product in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (B5) 69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3) *71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value (EOM). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census (B4, B8) *72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks (EOM). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census (B6, B8) 425. Mean probability (average chances in 100) of substantial changes (increase, decrease, and increase less decrease) in income of households (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (Cl) (B6) 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3) 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ). -National Industrial Conference Board (B3) 98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits plus currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6) 110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets (Q). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6) 112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census (B6) *113. Net change in consumer installment debt (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6, B8) 114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6) 115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M). -- Treasury Department (B6) 117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M). - The Bond Buyer (B6) 49. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled (EONI). - Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census (Bl) 118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M). -- Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration (B6) *52. Personal income (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (B2, B8) *200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). See in section A. 55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M).-- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (B5) *56. Manufacturing and trade sales (M). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census (B2, B8) 57. Final sales (series 200 minus series 245) (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (B2) 58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M). - Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (B5, D4, E3, E4) *61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Securities and Exchange Commission (B3, B8, Cl, C2) *62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing-ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B5,~B8) 65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book value, all manufacturing industries (EOM). — Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B4) 66. Consumer installment debt (EOM). - Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure (B6) *67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities (Q). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6, B8) 116 416. Percent of total gross capital assets held by companies classifying their existing capacity as inadequate for prospective operations over the next 12 months, less percent classifying existing capacity as excessive (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (Cl) 93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M). - Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (Bl) Department of Commerce, Bureau (B2, B8, E3, E4) 414. Percent of total book value of inventories held by manufacturers classifying their holdings as high, less percent classifying holdings as low (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (Cl) 420. Current income of households compared to income a year ago (percent higher, lower, and unchanged) (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (Cl) 116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M). -- First National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department(B6) *54. Sales of retail stores (M).of the Census (Cl) 412. Manufacturers' inventories, total book value (EOQ). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics (Cl) 85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits plus currency) (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6) *47, Index of industrial production (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B2, B8, E3, E4, F2) 53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (B2) 410. Manufacturers' sales, total value (p). -- Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics *205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A. 245. Change in business inventories (GNP component) (Q). See in section A. 810. Twelve leading indicators -- reverse trend adjusted composite index (includes series 1, 4, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31, and 113) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 430. Number of new cars purchased by households (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (CP 435. Index of consumer sentiment (Q). -- University of Michigan Survey Research Center (CD440. New orders, manufacturing (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, In (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced wi* out written permission from the source.) D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstr&i, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2) D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) ' (C2) D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- >un and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series msy not be reproduced without written permission from the source,) (C2) D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series-may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2) D460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2) D462. Selling prices, manufacturing (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2) D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2) D466. Selling prices, retail trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2) D480. Freight carloadings (Q). -- Association of American Railroads-. (C2) (B7) 813. Marginal employment adjustments - leading composite index (includes series 1, 4, and 5) (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B7) 814. Capital investment commitments -• leading composite index (includes series 6, 10, 12, and 29) (M). -• Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B7) 815. Inventory investment and purchasing -- leading composite index (includes series 23, 25, 31, and 37) (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B7) 816. Profitability - leading composite index (includes series 16, 17, and 19) (M). -• Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B7) 817. Sensitive financial flows -- leading composite index (includes series 33, 85,112, and 113) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B7) 820. Five coincident indicators - composite index (includes series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (37) 830. Six lagging indicators -- composite index (includes series 44, 61, 62, 67, 71, 72) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B7) C Anticipations and Intentions 61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries (Q). See in section B. 480. Change in freight carloadings (Q). -- Association of American railroads (C2) D Other Key Indicators 58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M). section B. See in 250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers under military grants: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- See in section A. 252. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under military grants; U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- See in section A. 253. Imports of goods and services: (Q).--See in section A. U.S. balance of payments 264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q). -- See in section A. 500. Merchandise trade balance (Series 502 minus series 512) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (Dl) 502. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (Dl) Titles and Sources of Series 561. U.S. direct investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) (Continued from page 116) 564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 506. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except motor vehicles and parts (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (01) 565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (02) 508. Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery (M).-McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census (Dl) 570. Government grants and capital transactions, net: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 512. General imports, total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (Dl) 575. Banking and other capital transactions, net: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 520. U.S. balance of payments on liquidity balance basis (change in U.S. official reserve assets and change in liquid liabilities to all foreigners) (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 522. U.S. balance of payments on official settlements basis (change in U.S. official reserve assets, and change in liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities to foreign monetary official agencies) (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 600. Federal Government surplus or deficit, national income and product accounts (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D3) 601. Federal Government receipts, national income and product accounts (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (03) 602. Federal expenditures, national income and product accounts (Q). -- Department of Commerce,-Office of Business Economics (03) 525. Net capital movements (plus unilateral transfers - except military grants -- and errors and omissions) on liquidity balance basis: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 616. Defense Department obligations incurred, total, excluding military assistance (M). -- Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census (D3) 527. Net capital movements (plus unilateral transfers - except military grants -- and errors and omissions) on official settlements basis: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 621. Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement (M). -Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census (D3) 5?0. Liquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to all foreigners, total outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 625. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and institutions (M). -- Department of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census (D3) 532. Litjuid and certain nonliquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to foreign official agencies, total outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 534. U.S. official reserve (assets) position, excluding military grants: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 647. New orders, defense products industries (M). • Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (03) (D2) U3. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 546. Military sales to foreigners: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 547. U.S. military expenditures abroad: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 548. Receipts for transportation and other services: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 549. Payments for transportation and other services: U.S. balance of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 560. Foreign direct investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 859. Real spendable average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers (with 3 dependents) on private nonagricultural payrolls, 1957-59 dollars (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (E2) The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number and are obtained from the same sources. See section B for titles and sources of Dl, D5, 06, Oil, 019, 023, 041, 047, D54, D58, 061, and section C for D440, D442, 0444, D446, 0450, 0460, 0462, 0464, 0466, and 0480. Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows: D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q). -- First National City Bank of New York; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (E3) F International Comparisons 19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M). See in section B. 47. United States, index of industrial production (M). See in section B. 122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M) -- Central Statistical Office (London) (F2) 752. Index of wholesale prices, farm products (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (04) 542. Income on U.S. investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 858. Index of output per man-hour, total private nonfarm (Q). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (E2) 750. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (D4) 537. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military: U.S. balance of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 541. Foreigners' investment income, military expenditures and other services imports: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 857. Vacancy rate in rental housing -- unoccupied rental housing units as a percent of total rental housing (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (E2) 121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European Countries, index of industrial production (M). -Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris) (F2) 751. Index of wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (04) (02) 856. Real average hourly earnings of production workers in manufacturing, 1957-59 dollars (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (E2) 648. New orders, defense products (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (D3) 536. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2) 540. U.S. investment income, military sales, and other services exports, excluding military grants: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled (series 49) to number of persons unemployed (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security and Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (E2) 781. Index of consumer prices (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (04, Fl) 782. Index of consumer prices, food (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (D4) 783. Index of consumer prices, commodities less food (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (04) 784. Index of consumer prices, services (M). -- Department of Labor, I Bureau of Labor Statistics (D4) E Analytical Measures 205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A. 206. Potential level of gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -Council of Economic Advisers (El) 207. Gap -- the potential GNP (series 206) less the actual GNP (Series 205) (Q). - - Counci I of Econom ic Advi sers (E1) 850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing (Q). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, and McGraw-Hill Economics Department (E2) 851. Ratio, inventories (series 71) to sales (series 56), manufacturing and trade total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (E2) 852. Ratio, unfilled orders (series 96) to shipments, manufacturers' durable goods (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (E2) 853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of consumer goods (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (Based upon components of the Federal Reserve index of industrial production.) (E2) 854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (series 292 divided by series 224) (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (E2) 123. Canada, index of industrial production (M). -- Dominion Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa) (F2) 125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M). -- Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonal adjustment by OECD (F2) 126. France, index of industrial production (M). -- Institut National de I a Stati sti que et des Etudes Econom i qu es (Pari s) (F2) 127. Italy, index of industrial production (M). -- Istituto Centrale di Stati sti ca( Rome) (F2) 128. Japan, index of industrial production (M). -- Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo) (F2) 132. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M). -- Ministry of Labour (London) (Fl) 133. Canada, index of consumer prices (M). -- Dominion Bureau of Stati sties (Ottawa) (Fl) 135. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M). -- Stati sti sches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden) (Fl) 136. France, index of consumer prices (M). -- Insitut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris) (Fl) 137. Italy, index of consumer prices (M). -- Istituto Centrale di Statistica(Rome) (Fl) 138. Japan, index of consumer prices (M). -- Office of the Prime Minister (Tokyo) (Fl) 142. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M). -- The Financial Times (London) (F3) 143. Canada, index of stock prices (M). -- Dominion Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa) (F3) 145. West Germany, index of stock prices (M). -- Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden) (F3) 146. France, index of stock prices (M). -- Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris) (F3) 147. Italy, index of stock prices (M). - Istituto Centrale di Statistica(Rome) (F3) 148. Japan, index of stock prices (M). -- Tokyo Stock Exchange (Tokyo) (F3) 781. United States, index of consumer prices (M). See in section 0. UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 OFFICIAL BUSINESS FIRST CLASS MAIL POSTAGE AND FEES PAID U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE