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J.S. Reserve
DEPARTMENT
OF
Federal
Bank of St. Louis

AUGUST 1969
DATA THROUGH JULY

COMMERCE

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS

This report was prepared in the Statistical Analysis Division.
Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication
are—
Feliks Tamm—Technical supervision and review,
Barry A. Beckman—Specificationsfor computer processing,
Gerald F. Donahoe—New projects,
Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment methods,
Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic data.
(Telephone 440-1596)
Editorial supervision is provided by Maureen Padgett of the
Administrative and Publications Services Division.
The cooperation of various government and private agencies
which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies
furnishing data are indicated in the list of series and sources
at the back of this report.

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Maurice H. Stans, Secretary
Rocco C. Siciliano, Under Secretary
William H. Chartener, Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs

This publication is prepared under the general guidance of
a technical committee established by the Bureau of the
Budget. This committee consists of the following persons:
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Julius Shiskin, Bureau of the Budget
Chairman

A. Ross Eckler, Director
Robert F. Drury, Deputy Director

William H. Branson, Council of Economic Advisers
A. Ross Eckler, Bureau of the Census
George Jaszi, Office of Business Economics
Geoffrey H. Moore, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Kenneth Williams, Federal Reserve Board

EDWIN D. GOLDFIELD, Assistant Director

ABOUT THE REPORT
ANTICIPATIONS
AND

NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT accounts summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the
personal, business, foreign, and government
sectors of the economy
and provide useful
measures of total
economic activity. The
total of the final
expenditures, which
equals the total of the
receipts, is known as
gross national product,
the most comprehensive single measure
of aggregate economic
output. GNP is defined
as the total market
value of the final output of goods and services produced by the
Nation's economy.

CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
are economic time
series which have been
singled out as leaders, coinciders, or /aggers in relation to movements in
aggregate economic
activity. In this report,
the series on the
NBER's list of cyclical
indicators are classified
by economic process
and by cyclical timing.
These indicators were
selected primarily on
the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but
they have also proven
useful in forecasting,
measuring, and
interpreting other
short-term fluctuations
in aggregate economic
activity.

INTENTIONS data
provide information
on the plans of
businessmen and consumers regarding their
major economic activities in the near future.
This information is considered to be a valuable
aid to economic forecasting either directly
or as an indication of
the state of confidence
concerning the economic outlook. A
number of surveys by
various organizations
and government
agencies have been
developed in recent
years to ascertain
anticipations and
intentions. The results
of some of these
surveys, expressed as
time series, are
presented in this
report.

Subscription price, including supplements, is $16 a year ($4 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues
are $1.50. Airmail delivery is available at an additional charge. For information about domestic or foreign
airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below), enclosing a copy of your




This monthly report brings together many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters. Its predecessor, Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclica1 indicators approach to the
analysis of business conditions and was based largely on
the list of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Some other approaches commonly used by students of economic conditions include econometric models
and anticipations and intentions data. The econometric
model concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships among consumption, private investment, government,
and various components of the major aggregates to generate
forecasts of gross national product and its composition.
Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of businessmen and the intentions of consumers.
Most of the content of Bus/ness Cycle Developments has
been retained in this new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis of other approaches have been added to
to make it more generally useful to those concerned with
an evaluation of current business conditions and prospects.
The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and
business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is
not to be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau
of the Census or any other government agency of any particular approach to economic analysis. This report is intended only to provide statistical information so arranged
as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's
economy.
Almost all of the basic data presented in this report
have been published by their source agencies. A series
finding guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and
data sources, is shown at the back of this report.
address label. Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Government
Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402, or to any U.S. Department of Commerce Field Office.

New Features and Changes for This Issue..

METHOD OF PRESENTATION

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST

AUGUST 1969
Data Through July
Series ESI No. 69-8




Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Section A. National Income and Product

1
1
1
1

Section B. Cyclical Indicators
Section C. Anticipations and Intentions
Section D. Other Key Indicators
Section E. Analytical Measures
Section F. International Comparisons

2
3
3
3
3

How to Read Charts
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes

4
5

PART I. CHARTS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Al
~A2
A3
A4

A7
AS
A9

Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving

9
10
11
....12
13
14
15
-16
17

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
Selected Indicators by Timing
Composite Indexes
NBER Short List

,

18
21
23
26
28
30
34
36

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes

40
43

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components

46
47

Federal Government Activities

52

Price Movements

54

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

El
E2
E3

Actual and Potential Gross National Product
Analytical Ratios

56
57

Diffusion Indexes

59

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Fl^
F3

Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices

61
62
63

PART II. TABLES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

A5
A6
A7

Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Final Sales and Inventories

64
64
65
65
66
66
66

AS
A9

National Income Components
Saving

66
67

A2
A3
A4

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

B2
B3




Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
Selected Indicators by Timing

68
70
71
73
74
75

Composite Indexes

77

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes

78
79

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components

81
82

Federal Government Activities
Price Movements

84
85

ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Actual and Potential GNP
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components

86
87
88
91

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices

97
98
99

APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See June issue)
QCD and Related Measures of Variability,
B. Current Adjustment Factors
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series (Not shown this month)

101
104
105

E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States:

1954 to 1961
Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series

112
113
115

NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE

Changes in this issue are as follows:

A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent find-

1. The series on money supply (series 85 and 98) have been
revised throughout the report for the period July 1967 to date.
These changes reflect the source agency's revision of the basic
series due to a change in accounting procedures associated with
bank clearings of Euro-dollar transactions. The effect of the new
procedures was a substantial increase in the level of the demand
deposit component of money supply. The source agency plans to complete further revisions, reflecting new benchmarks and changes in
seasonal factors, in the near future. Thus, the present revisions
are tentative. Further information concerning these revisions may
be obtained from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Banking Section.
2. The series on capital appropriations (series 11 and 97) were
shown on a revised basis, due to a new sample and asset base, in
the May issue of BCD. This revision covered the period from the
4th quarter 1968 to date. The source agency has now extended new
sample and asset base data to cover all four quarters of 1968. The
user is reminded that this revision seriously affects the comparability of the closing backlogs series (series 97) between the ending
date (4-th quarter 1967) for the old sample and asset base and the
beginning date (1st quarter 1968) for the new sample and asset base.
The source agency has revised the 1968 seasonally adjusted data
from the old sample and asset base. These revised figures are as
follows (billion dollars):
Series 11, New appropriations; IQ = $.53; IIQ = 5.58;
IIIQ = 6.18; and IVQ•= 6.37.
Series 97, Closing backlogs: IQ = 20.^6; IIQ = 20.50;
IIIQ = 20.94; and IVQ = 21.56.
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained
from the National Industrial Conference Board, Department of
Investment Economics, 845 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y., 10002.
Continued on page iv.
The September issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for
release on September 30.



iii

ings of economic
research, newly aval/able time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of
indexes, etc.

3. The analytical ratios (series 856, 858, and 859) based, in
part, on factory employment data have been revised to reflect the
Bureau of Labor Statistics1 adoption of a new benchmark (March 1968)
and new seasonal adjustments. Series 856 contains scattered revisions beginning in 1963, series 858 is revised from the 2d quarter
1966 to date, and series 859 is revised over the entire period of
the series. Further information concerning these revisions may be
obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Division of Industry and Employment Statistics.
4. Appendix C includes historical data for series 210a, 224-227,
230-234, 236, 237, 240-245, 250, 252, 253, 260, 262, 856, 858, and
859.




IV

METHOD OF PRESENTATION
THIS REPORT is organized into six major
subject sections, as follows:
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.

National Income and Product
Cyclical Indicators
Anticipations and Intentions
Other Key Indicators
Analytical Measures
International Comparisons

Each of these sections is described briefly
in this introduction. Data for each of the
above sections are shown both in Part I
(charts) and in Part II (tables) of the report. The charts begin with 1948 (except
in section C where they begin with 1957);
the tables contain data for only the last
few years. Except for section F, the charts
contain shading which indicates periods of
recession in general business activity.
In addition to the charts and tables described above, each issue contains a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series, and several
appendixes which present historical data,
series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of variability. An
index appears at the back of each issue.
It should be noted that the series numbers
used are for identification purposes only
and do not reflect relationships or order.

Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the
underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive
intrayear variations resulting primarily
from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to
holidays are usually accounted for by the
seasonal adjustment process; however, a
separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable
dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation
due to the number of working or trading
days in each month. As used in this report,
the term "seasonal adjustment" includes
trading-day and holiday adjustments where
they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and,
in most cases, these are the official figures
released by the source agencies. However,
for the special purposes of this report, a
number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here
on a seasonally adjusted basis.

MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are
often dominated by erratic movements.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is
an estimate of the appropriate span over
which to observe cyclical movements in a
monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the
smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is
greater than that in the irregular factor.
The more erratic a series is, the larger the
MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD




moving averages (that is, moving averages
of the period equal to MCD) tend to have
about the same degree of smoothness for
all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average
of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its
cyclical movements about as clearly as the
seasonally adjusted data for a series with
an MCD of 1.
The charts for sections B and D include
centered MCD moving averages for all
series with an MCD greater than 4. The
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations
for the most recent months.

Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates
used in this report are those designated
by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached
its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, neither new reference
turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until
after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the
shaded area have been designated. This
policy is followed because of the conceptual and empirical difficulties of designating a current recession and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading
of a current recession without including
part of a new expansion.

SECTION A

NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by the Office of Business Economics (QBE), summarize both receipts
and final expenditures for the personal,
business, foreign, and government sectors
of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total
of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which
equals the total of the receipts (mainly
incomes), is known as gross national
product (GNP). GNP is defined as the
total market value of the final output of
goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output.
Gross national product consists of four
major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods
and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services.
Personal consumption expenditures is the
market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the
value of food, clothing, housing, and finan-

cial services received by them as income
in kind. The total purchase cost is covered,
including sales taxes. Home purchases are
excluded, but the estimated rental value
of owner-occupied homes is included.
Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net
changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable
equipment and private (as opposed to
government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates
are gross in the sense that there is no
deduction for capital consumption. The
inventory component measures the change
in the physical volume of inventories ' alued at current replacement cost.
Net exports of goods and serv/ces measures
the excess of exports over imports of goods
and services. Exports include both domestic output sold abroad and the contribution to production abroad made by U.S.owned resources. Imports include both
U.S. purchases of foreign output and the
contribution made to production in the
United States by foreign-owned resources.
More detail on U.S. balance of payments
is provided in section D.
Government purchases of goods and services includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net
purchases from business and from abroad,
payments to private nonprofit institutions
for research and development, and the
gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays
of government enterprises, acquisitions of
land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,
and interest payments to domestic creditors.
A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP,
covering durable and nondurable goods
and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section
A. Other major aggregates taken from the
national income and product accounts are
described below.
National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods
and services and accruing to the labor and
property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income,
rental income of persons, corporate profits
and the inventory valuation adjustment,
and net interest.
Personal income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions,
private trust funds, and private health and
welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income,
and transfer payments to persons, less
personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving.
It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments
to general government.
Gross saving represents the difference between income and spending during an ac-

counting period. It is the total of personal
saving, undistributed corporate profits,
corporate inventory valuation adjustment,
the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government
surplus or deficit, and capital consumption
allowances.
Most of the series in this section are on
a current-dollar basis, but some are shown
on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that
the effects of price changes are eliminated.
The implicit price deflator (computed by
dividing the current-dollar data by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP is also
shown.
SECTION B

CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
The business cycle is generally described
as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as
total production, employment, income,
consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.
Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it
inevitable.
One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a

tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical
indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to
movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained
a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 72
cyclical indicators is the basis for this section of BCD. These indicators were
selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful
in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER employs a dual classification
scheme which groups the indicators by
cyclical timing and by economic process,
and this report uses the same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system
used in this section. The 72 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification
and cyclical timing as the secondary basis.
The major processes are divided into minor
processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing
classification takes into account a series'
historical record of timing at business
cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators
are those which usually reach peaks or
troughs before the corresponding turns in
aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of
aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging indicators
usually reach their turning points after the
turns in aggregate economic activity.

The NBER has also specified a "short list"
of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal
indicators is drawn from the full list and
provides a convenient summary of the
current situation. The short list consists of
26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these
are quarterly series; the rest are monthly.
The short list is classified only by timing
and is shown separately in chart B8.
Included in this section are a number of
composite indexes which provide simple
summary measures of the average behavior
of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is weighted according
to its value in forecasting or identifying
short-term movements in aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each has, aside from its
weight, an equal opportunity to influence
the index. Each index is standardized so
that its average month-to-month percent
change is 1 (without regard to sign).
The composite indexes presented in this
report are based on groups of indicators
selected by timing. Thus, there is an index
of leading indicators, another of coincident
indicators, and a third of lagging indicators.
In addition, there are five indexes based on
leading indicators which have been
grouped by economic process. These indexes indicate the underlying cyclical
trends of each group of indicators and the
relative magnitude of their short-term
changes. The index of 12 leading indicators
has been "reverse trend adjusted" so that
its long-run trend parallels that of the
coincident index. This facilitates compari-

Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
1. EMPLOYMENT
AND

UNEMPLOYMENT
(14 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
(5 series)
LEADING INDICATORS
(36 series)

Job vacancies
(2 series)
ROUGHLY COINCIDEN1 Comprehensive
employment
INDICATORS
(3 series)
(25 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)

Long-duration
unemployment
(1 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(11 series)




II. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(8 series)

III. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)

IV. INVENTORIES

Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment
commitments
<S series)

Inventory investment
anil purchasing
(7 series)

AND

INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

Comprehensive
Backlog of investment
commitments
production
(2 series)
(3 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive
consumption
and trade (3 series)

Investment
expenditures
(2 series)

Inventories
(2 series)

V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(10 series)

VI. MONEY
AND CREDIT
(17 series)

Sensitive commodity
prices
(1 series)
Stock prices
(2 series)
Profits and profit
margins
(4 series)

Flows of money
and credit
(6 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)

Comprehensive
wholesale
prices .
(2 series)

Bank reserves
(1 series)
Money market interest
rates
(4 series)

Unit tabor costs
<2 series)

Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates on
business loans
and mortgages
(2 series)

sons among the leading, coincident, and
lagging indexes and tends to shorten the
leads of the leading index at business
cycle peaks while lengthening them at
troughs; it also reduces the variability of
the leads and lags.
SECTION C

ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS
Most businessmen and many individual
consumers have some type of plans as to
their major economic activities in the near
future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication
of the state of confidence concerning the
economic outlook. In recent years, much
progress has been made in compiling such
information, and a number of surveys by
various organizations and government
agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The
results of some of these surveys, expressed
as time series, are presented in this section of the report.
The business analyst who uses these series should be aware of their limitations.
These data reflect only the respondents'
anticipations (what they expect others to
do) or intentions (what they plan to do),
not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses
may not be very reliable; that is, the
plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many
plans are subject to modification or even
complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments.
In some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for
example, the anticipations (or intentions)
data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic
conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what
has already occurred and hence appear to
lag behind actual changes. Actual data are
included in this section to indicate their
historical relationship to the anticipations
and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the
description for section E.
SECTION D

OTHER KEY
INDICATORS
Many economic series are available which,
although not included in the three main
sections of the report, are nevertheless
important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of
such series, though by no means a com-




prehensive selection. In general, these series reflect processes which are not direct
measures of economic activity but which
do have a significant bearing on business
conditions.
The foreign trade and payments series
include data on imports and exports and
their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts
are shown. Some are charted in a manner
which emphasizes the balance between
receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports
of goods and services, and income on
U.S. investments abroad with payments on
foreign investments in the United States.
In addition, balances are shown for U.S.
Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the
private sector (banks and U.S. residents
other than banks). Finally, cumulative
changes are shown for other components;
for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all
foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets.
Because these data are influenced by
foreign as well as domestic conditions,
the cyclical shading has been omitted
from the balance-of-payments charts.
The Federal Government activities series
include Federal receipts and expenditures
and their balance, and selected Federal defense activities. The receipts and expenditures data are from the national income and
product accounts, but are not shown in
section A of this report. The defense series
included are only a few of the many available. For a more comprehensive picture of
defense activities, see Defense Indicators,
a monthly Bureau of the Census publication.
The price movements series consist of
consumer and wholesale price indexes and
their major components. Additional data
on prices and costs are shown in several
other sections.
SECTION E

ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
This section begins by comparing gross
national product in constant dollars with
a measure of potential GNP. In effect,
these two series reflect the relationship
between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree
to which potentially productive resources
are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of
Economic Advisers in the early 1960fs,
takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour.
The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic variables (for example, the series on labor cost

per unit of output). There are, however,
additional analytical ratios which have
proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such
ratios are shown in the second part of
this section.
The third part presents diffusion indexes
for selected economic activities. Many of
the series throughout this report are aggregates compiled from a number of
components. A diffusion index is a simple
summary measure which expresses, for a
particular aggregate, the percentage of
components rising over a given timespan.
It reflects only directions of change among
the components, not magnitudes. Cyclical
changes in diffusion indexes tend to lead
those of the corresponding aggregates.
Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic,
long-term (6- or 9-month span) diffusion
indexes are shown to bring out the underlying trends and short-term (month-tomonth) indexes are shown to indicate the
most recent developments. Most of the
diffusion indexes are based on aggregate
series shown in section B, and have the
same series numbers preceded by the
letter "D". The diffusion indexes are classified according to the cyclical timing of the
aggregates to which they relate.
The final part (E4), which appears only as
a table, lists many of the components
used in computing the diffusion indexes.
Where possible, recent data for the components are shown and the month-tomonth directions of change are indicated.
SECTION F

INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Because this report is designed as an aid
to the analysis of U.S. business conditions,
all previous sections are based on data
which relate directly to that purpose. But
many business analysts examine economic
developments in other important countries
with a view to their impact on the United
States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which
we have important trade relationships.
Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West
Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series.
Also included is an industrial production
index for the European countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price
indexes measure an important sector of
prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from the charts.

HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end
of expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas) asdesignated by NBER.

Trough (T) of cycle indicates end
of recession and beginning of
Expansion as designated by
NBER.

Basic Data
(May) (Feb.)
P T

Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.

Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly
figures or MCD moving averages.*)

Arabic number indicates latest
20 -uXmonth for which data are plotted.
("6" = June)

/

Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are
plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.

Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.

Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.)
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.

Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given
distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in
that distance, etc. The scales
should be carefully noted because
they show whether the plotted
lines for various series are directly comparable.

Scale shows percent of components rising.
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans.
*Many of the more irregular
series are shown in terms of their
MCD moving averages as well as
their actual monthly data. In such
cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted l l / 2 , 2,
or 2*/2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD
moving averages.

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("6" =
June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("I" —
first quarter)
Broken line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over various spans.
NOTE: Some of the charts of
anticipations and intentions data
(section C) and balance of payments data (section D) do not
conform to the above method of
presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur.

HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
To locate a series in BCD, consult the "Index—Series Finding Guide" in the back of the book where series are arranged into six
sections and various subsections. Also, in the list of 'Titles and Sources of Series" which follows the Finding Guide, series are
listed in numerical order within each of the six sections, and the charts and tables in which they appear are indicated.




Basic data1
Unit
of
measure

Series title

1966

1967

1968

1st Q

Percent change

2dQ

3dQ

4th Q

IstQ

2dQ

1968

1968

1968

1969

1969

3dQ
to
4th Q

4th Q
to
IstQ

IstQ
to
2dQ

1968

1969

1969

Series number

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators

A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A1. Grots Notional Product
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars

Ann. rate, bil. dol. .
do
1958*100
Ann. rate, dot. . .
rjo

750.0
658.1
113.9
3 1807
3,341

793.5
674.6
117.6
3,984
3»388

865.7
707.6
122.3
4»302
3»517

835.3
693.3
120.5
4,168
3t459

858.7
705.8
121.7
4,274
3,513

876.4
712.8
122.9
4,350
3,538

892.5
718.5
124.2
4,418
3,557

908.7
723.1
125.7
4,488
3,571

924.8
726.7
127.3
4,556
3,580

1,8
0.8
Itl
1,6
0.5

1.8
0.6
1.2
1.6
0.4

1.8
0.5
1.3
1.5
0.3

200
205
210
215
217

Ann. rate, bil.to!,.
720. National income, current dollars
do
do
224. Disposable personal income, current dol ...
do
225. Disposable personal income, constant dol . .
226. Per capita disposable personal income,
Ann. rate, dol ...
current dollars
227. Per capita disposable personal income,
do
constant dollars

620.6
587.2
511.9
458.9

654.0
629.4
546.5
477.7

714.4
687.9
590.0
497.6

688.8
664.3
575.0
492.1

707.4
680.1
587.4
497.4

724.1
696.1
593.4
498.9

737.3
711.2
604.3
502.1

75i;3
724.4
610.2
502.6

765.0
740.5
622.0
506.2

1.8
2,2
1.8
0,6

1.9
1.9
1.0
0.1

1.8
2.2
1.9
0.7

220
222
224
225

2,599

2,745

2*933

2,869

2^924

2,946

2,991

3,014

3,065

1.5

2t33l

2,399

2f474

2f455

2*476

2,477

2,485

2*482

2»494

0,3

466.3
418.1

492.3
430.3

536.6
452.6

520.6
445.6

530.3
449,0

544.9
458.2

550.7
457.6

562.0
462.9

572.8
466 .,2;

70.8
45.4
25.3

73.0
48.1

79.5
51.1
28.4

81.8
52.6
29.2

85.8
54.1

24.9

83.3
53.2
30.2

31.7

86.3
54.9
31.4

88.4
57.5
30.9

90.6
59.2
31.4

206.9
188.6

215.1
204.2

230.6
222.8

226.1
215.1

228.5
220.0

233.3
225.8

234.3
230.1

238.6
235.0

242.1
240.1

0,4
1.9

1.8
2.1

121.4

116.0

126.3

119.4

126.6

125.2

133.9

135.2

137.4

81.6
28.5
53.1
25.0
14.8

83.7
27.9
55.7
25.0

88.8
29.3
59.5
3Q.2

89.1
29.8
59.4
28.6

86.4
28.3
58.1

88.1
29.0
59.1
29.9

91.5
30.1
61.4
31.9

95.3
32.3
63.0
33.3

97.8
32.1
65.7
32.7

6.9
3,9
3,8
3,9
6,7

1.0
4.2
7.3
2.6
4.4

200,
205.
210
215.
217.

0.8
-0.1

1.7

226

0.5

227

1.9
0.7
2.5
3.0
1.6
1.5
2.2

230
231
232
233
234
236
237

1.6
2.6

240
241
242
243
244
245

A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures

231.
232.
233.
234.
236
237.

Ann.rate,bil.dol. .
do
Total, constant dollars.
do
Durable goods, current dollars
do
Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars. .
do
Automobiles, current dollars
.....
do
Nondurable goods, current dollars
do
Services, current dollars

A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
do
240. Gross private domestic investment, total . . .
do
241. Fixed investment, total nonresident! a 1
do
242. Fixed investment, nonresidential structures.
do
243. Fixed investment, producers' dur. equip. . . .
244 Fixed investment residential structures • • . . . . do
do
245. Change in business inventories, total . —

7.4

7.3

1.6

30.3

9.9

1.1
-0,1

0,6
1.5
-0,9

7.2

2.1
1.2
2.4
4.7
-1.6

-3.9

-0.6

4.3
-1.8

0.3

AS. Foreign Trade

250 Net exports of goods and services2
252 Exports
253 Imports

do
do
do

5.3

5.2

2.5

1.9

3.4

3.6

1.2

43.4
38.1

46.2
41.0

50.6
48.1

47.7
45.9

50.7
47.3

53.4
49.7

50.6
49.4

do
do
, do
do

156.8

180.1

200.3

193.4

198..4

77.8
60.7
79.0

90.7
72.4
89.3

99.5
78,0

96.3

78.8

100.7

99.0
77.9
99.4

202.5
100.9

76.1
97.1

do

146.2

157.0

171.4

166. 4

3.9
234.1

5.3
252.3

1.9
246.5

1.5
47i 6

1.6

-2,4
-5,2
-0,6

0.3

46.1

57.1
55.5

206.7
101.9

210.0
101.6

212.9
100.6

79.3

79.0

78.5

101.7

104.8

108.5

112.3

168.9

173.7

176.6

181.6

185.5

I'7

6.8
250.4

5.1
256.1

7.4
256.4

4.8
259.7

4.9
264.1

2,3
0,1

-2.6

3.1

2.1

3.1

1.8

2.1

1.0

-1.3

2.4
0.0
0.9

-5.9
-6.7

0.1
20.0
20.4

250
252
253

A6. Government Purchases of Goods
and Services

260. Total
262 Federal
266 State and local

270. Final sales, durable goods
271. Change 2in business inventories, durable
goods
274. Final sales nondurable goods
275. Change in business
inventories, nondurable goods 2

do
10.5
do . , . . .222.3

2,1
1,0
0,6
3,0

..do

4.3

3.5

2.0

do
do
do
do
do

435.5

467.4

513.6

495.1

507.0

519.8

532.3

546.0

558.2

61.3
20.0
82.4
21.4

61.9
20.8
79.2
24.7

63.8
21.2
87.9
27.9

63.2
21.1
82.5
26.7

63.6
21.2
88.2
27.5

64.1
21.2
90.6
28.4

64.1
21.4
90.3
29.3

64.6
89.5
29.8

66.5
21.6
88.5
30.3

do
do

124.9

119.2

128.4

120.5

128.8

129.1

135.4

133:5

142.0

32.5

40.4

38.4

39.9

42.3

33.2

38.0

32.5

33.3

14.5

294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296. Capital consumption allowances
298. Government surplus or deficit, total 2

do
do
do

27.4
63.9

24.8
68.6

23.4
73.3
-6.7

24. ,1

-10.8

23.6
74.6
-0.9

21.1
77.2
10.4

-7.8

-11.5

25.6
73.7
-3.5

22.3
75.9

-14.5

El. Actual and Potential GNP
207. GNP cap (potential less actual) 2

do

-11.0

-1.7

-7.7

-3.7

-9.4

-9.5

-8.3

-5i9

-0.3

1.6

1.4

3.5

3.5

260
262
264
266

2.8

2.1

270

0.1
1.7

271
274

0.3

275

2.2
2.9
0.5

-0.3
-0.4

1.3

-1,0
-0.6

A8. Notional Income Components

280.
282.
284.
286.
288.

Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income
Rental income of persons
Corp. profits and inventory valuation adj. . .
Net interest

A9. Saving
290. Gross saving, total




1.1

20.4
71.7

73.0

2li5

7.8

-2.4

2.6
0.8
0.5

3,2

1.7

1.7

280
282
284
286
288

4.9

2.3
-14,5

2.5
2.5

290
292

-0,3

-0.9

-1.1

1.2
2.6

1.7
8.7

1.7
2.6

294
296
298

1.2

2.4

3.5

207

-5.5

-5.4

Basic data *
Series title

Unit
of
measure

1967

1968

4th Q

IstQ
1969

2dQ
1969

Percent change

May
1969

June
1969

July
1969

May
to
June

June
to
July
1969

1969

4th Q
to
IstQ
1969

IstQ
to
2dQ
1969

Series number

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
67. Compositt Indexes
126.9
143.2
150.9

138.4
156.6
164.8

144.0
161.8
171.0

145.8
165.8
179.0

148.3
169.2
185.3

148.1
169.0
185.8

148.2
170.8
186.6

147.6
171.6
186.8

100.2
107.1
101.0
114.6
98.3

101.6
114.2
101.8
116.6
102.2

101.1
118.5
102.4
118.5
104.2

100.5
118.9
103.6
118.7
101.8

100.8
118.5
105.4
118.6
102.8

100. 1
117.9
105.9
119.6
101.6

100.6
117.6
104.2
117.7
102.7

100.2
117.2
106.3
116.5
NA

LEADING INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
40.6
*1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg. . . . Hours
Ann. rate, thous. . 5t817
*4. Nonagri. placements, all industries
2
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
Per 100 employ . . 4.4
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State
225
Thousands
unemployment insurance (inverted3)
1.4
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted3)2. . . Per 100 employ . .

40.7
5»716
4.6

40.8
5t452
4.7

40.5
5t352
4.7

40.7
5t356
4.9

40.7
5tl24
4.8

40.7
5t520
4.9

194
1.2

189
1.1

183
1.1

186
1.0

180
1.1

348
182

373
200

373
220

365
228

383
218

131.4
65.8
70.5

134.6
67.8
72.1

136.0
68.7
72.7

137.5
69.5
73.8

3.8

3.6

3.4

2.5

2.2

2.0

1.8

1.6

0.6

Ann. rate, bil.dol
do
1957-59=100 ....

810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj. . 1953-jOO
...... do
820. 5 coincident indicators
do
830 6 lagging indicators

0.1

-0.4
0.5
0.1

1.2
2.5
4.7

1.7
2.1
3.5

810
820
830

1.1

-0.4
-0.3
2.0
-1,0
NA

-0.6
0.3
1.2
0.2
-2.3

0.3
-0.3
1.7
-0,1
1,0

813
814
815
816
817

40.7
5t352
NA

0.0
7,7
0.1

0,0
-3,0
NA

-0.7
-1.8
0.0

0.5
0.1
0,2

1
4
2

201
1.0

197
NA

-11.7
0.1

2,0
NA

3.2
0.0

-1.6
0.1

5
3

387
217

383
209

358
210

-1.0
-3.7

-6,5
0,5

-2.1
3.6

4.9
-4.4

49
46

139.0
70.0
73.8

139.2
70.0
73.5

139.4
70.3
74.0

139.9
70.5
74.3

0,4
0,3
0.4

1.1
1.2
1.5

1.1
0.7
0.0

48
41
42

3.3

3.5

3.5

3.4

3:6

0.1

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.1

2:2

-0.1

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.5

i:6

0.0

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.5

o;s

0.0

793.5
674.6
158.1

865.7
707.6
165.4

892.5
718.5
167.4

908.7
723.1
170.2

924.8
726.7
172.8

172.7

173.9

175.2

Comprehensive Income:
*52. Personal income
Ann. rate, bil. dol.
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr . . .
do

629.4
163.8

687.9
178.6

711.2
184.9

724.4
188.5

740.6
193.5

740.0
193.1

746.1
195.3

752.3
196.3

Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales
57. Final sales
*54. Sales of retail stores

do
do
do

It 068
786.2
314.0

It 163 It 194 It 212
858.4 882*0 902.1
338.9 343.4 348.8

It 239
917.9
352.7

It 239

1 1 249

352.6

352.0

353.8

1957-59=100 ....
Ann. rate, thous. .

107.7
207.8

117.8
233.2

124.2
251.4

124.7
256.5

123.5
281.6

123.1
278.8

123.6
284.5

NA
NA

302.3
155
75.4
23.0
63.0

334.5
174
85.0
24.8
69.7

355.9
187
93.0
26.5
75.5

359.4
191
93.3
26.6
76.5

360.4
191
96.4
29.9
80.2

360.0
210
96.1

350.0
180
94.0

369i4
176
93.7

77.2

78.4

77.0

1.6

703
If 273
95.6

793
It 498
112.9

883
It 579
118.9

912
It 692
119.8

922
It 495
116.0

It027
It 495
110.6

949
1*441
112.0

869
It314
100.8

-746
-3,6
1.3

80.58
20.41

84.07
20.02

84.07
20.02

85.16
20.48

85.91
21.54

86.88

85.91

86.45

-1,1

LEADING INDICATOR SECTORS
813. Marginal employment adjustments
•
814. Capital investment commitments ........
815. Inventory investment and purchasing
816. Profitability
817. Sensitive financial flows

do
do
do
do
do

1

l.l

0.4
0.5
-0.3
-1.6
-1.6

Bl. Employment and Unemployment

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Job Vacancies:
49. Nonagri. job openings unfilled

Thous., EOP
1957-59=100 ....

Comprehensive Employment:
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural
Ann. rate, billion
man-hours
establishments.
Millions
*41. Employees on nonagri payrolls
do
42 Persons engaged in nonagri activities • . .
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted3)2. . . .Percent
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment
do
rate (inverted3)2
40. Unemployment rate, married males
3 2
do
(inverted )
LAGGWG INDICATORS
Long Duration Unemployment:
* 44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and
over (inverted3)2

do

0.1
0.4
0.7

-0,2
-0,1
-0,1

0.1

-0.1

-0.2
0.1

43
45

0.1

-0.1

40

0,0

0.0

-0.1

44

0.7

0,7

1.8
0.6
1.7

1.8
0.5
1,5

200
205
47

0,8
1.1

0,8
0,5

1.9
1.9

2.2
2.7

52
53

NA
0.5

1.5
2.3
1.6

2.2
1.8
1,1

56
57
54

NA
NA

0.4
2.0

-1,0
9,8

12
13

5,5
-2,2
-0.3

-1,8

1.0
2.1
0.3
0.4
1.3

0,3
0,0
3,3
12,4
4,8

6
8
10
11
24

-8,4
-8,8
-10,0

3.3
7.2
0.8

1,1
-11,6
-3.2

9
7
29

0,6

1.3
2.3

0.9
5.2

96
97

B2. Production, Income, Consumption,
and Trade
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Production:
*200. GNP in current dollars .
*205. GNP in 1958 dollars
*47. Industrial production

NA

0.8

-0,2

B3. Fixed Capital Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12. Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations

New Investment Commitments:
*6. New orders, durable goods industries .... Ann. rate, bil. dol . .
8. Construction contracts, total value
1957-59=100 ....
*10. Contracts and orders, plant, equipment . . .Ann. rate, bil. dol ..
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing.
do
24. New orders, mach. and equip, industries . .
do
Ann.rate,mil.sq.
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial buildings .
ft. floor space . .
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
Ann. rate, thous. .
*29. New bldg. permits, private housing
1957-59=100 ....
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries4. Bil.dol., EOP...
. 97. Backlog of capital approp. mfg.*
do




0.4
2.0

-2,8
-14.3
-2.2

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Con.
Basic data1
Series title

Unit
of
measure

1967

1968

4th Q

IstQ

1968

1969

Percent change

2dQ

May

June

July

1969

1969

1969

May
to
June
1969

June
to
July

4th Q
to
IstQ

IstQ
to
2dQ

1969

1969

1969

C
8

31

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B3. Fixtd Capital Investment-Con.
LAGGING INDICATOR

Investment Expenditures:
61, Business expend., new plant and equip • • • Ann. rate, bil.dol. 61,69
69, Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures
do
76.90

64.11

65.90

68.90 a72.00

82.69

86.61

90.58

90.15

4.6

89.84

91.78

NA

2.2

NA

4.6

4.5

61
69

-0.5

B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
LEADING INDICATORS

Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
245. Change in business inventories, all
industries2.
*31. Change in book value, 2manufacturing
and trade inventories
37, Purchased materials, percent reporting

Ann. rate, billion
dollars

7.4

do

6.6

Percent ...
Ann. rate, billion
dollars

20. Change in book value, manufacturers'
inventories of materials, supplies2
26. Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer2 ® . . . fercent
•
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
do,,,.
Ann. rate billion
25. Change in unfilled
orders, durable goods
dollars
industries2

7.3
10.1

10.5
12.6

6.6
10.5

6.9
10.8

-3.9
13.5

6.1

NA

44

51

43

46

50

52

50

51

0.1

1.4

0.1

1.1

1.0

2.8

-1.1

NA

NA

-7.4

-3.9

-2.1

1

-2

0.3

245

0.3

31

4

37

3

NA

1.0

20

-0.1

65

64

61

59

65

64

66

59

2

-7

-2

6

26

44

53

56

61

69

69

70

66

1

-4

5

8

32

2.6

3.5

4.3

3.0

5.0

14.0

-11.6

6:5

-16.6

18.1

-9.7

-1.3

25

LAGGING INDICATORS

Inventories:
*71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories * . .Bil.dol., EOP... 143.8
65, Book value, manufacturers' inventories
26.81
do
of finished goods^

153.9

153.9

156.5

159.2

158.7

159.2

NA

0.3

NA

1.7

1.7

71

29.13

29.13

29.61

30.45

30.41

30.45

NA

0.1

NA

1.6

2.8

65

112:4

1.1

0.7

6.0

4.6

23

0.8

19

B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
LEADING INDICATORS

Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23. Industrial materials prices®

1957-59=100 .... 100.4

97.8

99.5

105.5

110.4

110.4

111.6

Stock Prices:
*19 Stock prices 500 common stocks®

1941-43=10

91.9

98.7

105.2

100.9

101.7

104.6

99.1

47.3

49.8

51.6

52.2

51.6

1.2

-1.1

16

11.9

11.4

11.4

11.3

11.0

-0.3

5.0
100.7

-0.1
-0.1

99.2

98.7

99.8

99.9

100.1

100.1

100.4

0.0

0,3

1.1

NA
0.1

22
15
17

109.0
109.4

109.9
110.3

111.4
111.7

112,2
112.8

112.2
112.8

112*2
113.2

112.4
113.5

0.0
0.4

0,2
0.3

1.4
1.3

0.7
1.0

55
58

0.723
110.3

0^732
111.8

0.745
112.0

0.757
112.9

112.7

113.1

11340

0.4

-0,1

1.8
0.2

1.6
0.8

68
62

11.8

-1.9

-2.4
-0.6
19.4
10.2

-0.4

-7.6

2.0
5.5
3.2

-7,2

-13.7

2*4
1.9

98
85
33
113
112
UO

Profits and Profit Margins:
*16. Corporate profits, after taxes
Ann. rate, bil.dol.
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries2
Percent
15. Profits (after taxes) per dot. of sales, mfg.2 Cents
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
1957-59=100 ....

5.1

5.1

5.0

94.7

-5.3

-4,4

NA

-4.1

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, indus. commodities ® . 1957-59=100 .... 106.3
do
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods § .
106.7
LAGGING INDICATORS

Unit Labor Costs:
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
*62 Labor cost per unit of output mfg

Dollars
0.706
1957-5^100 .... 106.0

B6. Money and Credit
LEADING INDICATORS

Flows of Money and Credit:
98. Change in 2money supply and time
Ann* rate, weent
deposits
do
85. Change in money supply22
33. Change in mortgage debt
Ann. rate, Nl.fcl.
2
do
*113. Change in consumer installment
debt ...
do
112. Change in business loans 2
do
110. Total private borrowing
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabi lities of business fai lures (inv.3) ® .
do
39. Delinquency
rate, installment loans
3 2
(inverted ) *
Percent, EOP...

10.6

6.4
16.7

8.8
6.8

8.1

2.8
21.6

0.5
4.7

66.4

79.0

22.5
10.2
12.0
93.0

1.27

0.94

0.83

1.00

LSI

1.74

1.71

It 71

1.51

NA

-207

-241

-592

5.34
6.84
5.26
4.45

5.58
7.05
5.42
4.64

6.14
7.46
5.88
5.03

3.2
4.4

20.0

8.9
7.6

8.3

21.3

9.6

10.3
85.7

10.8
81,0

9.1

1.11

NA

4.9
22.6

9.5
7.2

1.10

NA

5.4
NA
NA
2.7

1.35

-0.7
-1.9

0.9

0.5
NA
NA
-4,5

-22,7

NA

NA

NA

-It 003 -It 102 -1»064 -1»095

-38

31

-5.3
-0.9
-1.9
-1.7
-7.8

-20.5
0.20

-0.3

1.3
0.5
-5.5

-21,0

14

NA

39

411

93

o.io
0.27
0.03

114
116
115

fi_ /I A

t IT

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted *f (g)

Million dollars...

Money
114.
116.
115.
117.

Percent
do
do
do

Market Interest Rates:
Treasury bill rate 2 ®2
Corporate bond yields <g>
Treasury bond yields22®
Municipal bond yields (ft




194

4.33
6.08
4.85
3.94

6.24
7.73
5.91
5.43

6.08

7*62
5.85

•5.33

6.49
8.04
6.05
5.76

7.00
8,06
6.07
5.7*5

0.41
0.42
0.20

n.ii-*

0.51
0.02
0.02

-ft.fti

351

0.56
0.41
0.46

n_ TO

Basic datal
Series title

Unit
of
measure

1967

1968

4th Q
1968

IstQ
1969

Percent change

2dQ
1969

May
1969

June
1969

July
1969

May
to
June

June
to
July

4th Q
to

1969

1969

1969

IstQ

IstQ
to
2dQ
1969

Series number

1

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS~Con.
B6. Monty ond Crtdlt-.Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Outstanding Debt:
Bil. dol., EOP. . .
66, Consumer installment debt4
do
*72. Com. and industrial loans outstanding *. . .

79.2
65.1

88.1
72.3

88.1
72.3

90.2
74.7

92.6
77.0

91.8
77.2

92.6
77.0

NA
76.7

0.9
-0.3

NA
-0,4

2.4
3.3

2.7
3.1

66
72

Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages:
*67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans *®. . . Percent
do
118. Mortgage yields, residential2 ©

6.00
6.56

6*68
7.19

6.61
7.38

7.32
8*02

7.86
8.16

8.06

8.35

8.36

0.29

0.01

0.71
0.64

0.54
0.14

67
118

D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Dl. Foreign Trade
500. Merchandise trade balance2

Ann. rate.bil.dol..

do
502. Exports excluding military aid
506. Export orders, durable goods except motor
do
vehicles
508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery. . . . 1957-59^100....
512. General imports
Ann.rate,bil.dol..

1.0

0.2

-0.3

0.9

0.2

0.3

1.3

-0.5

1.2

500

31.0

34.1

34.3

30.3

39.4

39.5

38.6

38.1

-2.3

-1.3

-11.7

30.0

502

10.8
230
26.9

12.3
241
33.1

13.1
238
34.1

13.4
241
30.6

14.6
262
38.6

14.7
254
39.3

15.9
285
38.3

NA
NA
36.8

8.2
12.2
-2.5

NA
NA
-3.9

2.3
1.3
-10.3

9.0
8.7
26.1

506
508
512

-10.28
3.13

-8.37
0.40

520
522

4.1

0.1

1.0

D2. U.S. Bolonc* of Poymtntt
520 Liquidity balance basis2.2
522 Official settlements basis

do
do

-3.54
-3.42

0.09
1.64

3.48
1.47

do

-12.7

-5.2

-0.1

do

151.1

176.3

do
do
do
do
do
do
do

163.8
72.4
81.0
26.1
42.5
NA
42.3

1957-59-100....
do

116.3
106.1

-6.80 -15.17
4.60
5.00

D3. Federal Government Activities
600. Federal surplus or deficit, national
income and product accounts2
601. Federal receipts, national income and
product accounts
602. Federal expenditures, national income
and product accounts
264. National defense purchases
616. Defense Dept. obligations, total
621. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement . . .
647. New orders, defense products industries. . .
648. New orders, defense products
625. Military contract awards in U.S

9.6

12.5

9.7

2.9

600

187.3

198.1

201.9

5.8

1.9

601

181.5
78.0
86.6
28.9
47.5
NA
42.3

187.4
79.3
85.6
27.1
50.0
26.6
44.4

188.5
7Q.O
85.5
24.2
48.9
25.2
39.6

189.3
78.5
NA

0.4

42.8
20.6
31.7

75.3
15.6
45.7
21.5
32.1

NA
NA
34.4
15.2
31.4

NA
NA
49.2
28.7
NA

NA
NA
-24.7
-29.3
-2.2

NA
NA
43,0
88,8
NA

0.6
-0.4
-0.1
-10.7
-2.2
-5.3
-10.8

NA
NA
-12.5
-18.3
-19.9

602
264
616
621
647
648
625

121.2
108.7

123.3
109.5

124.8
111.2

126.9
112.6

126.8
112.8

127.6
113.2

128.2
113.3

0.6
0.4

0.5
0.1

1.2
1.6

1.7
1.3

781
750

84.5

84.2

84.5

84.6

0.3

0.1

850

0.0

NA

-o.e

D4. Price Movements
750. Wholesale prices, all commodities <§)....
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2. Analyticol Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing2. .
85.3
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing
Ratio
and trade
1.58
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, mfrs.'
do
durable goods industries
3.48
853. Ratio, production of business equipment
to consumer goods
1957-59=100 .... 123.3
854. Ratio, personal savings to disposable
personal income
Ratio
0.074
855. Ratio, nonagri cultural job openings
do
0.121
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm. . 1957-59-100 .... 129.9
856. Real average hourly earnings, production
2.43
1957-59 dollars..
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings,
78.08
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers. •
do
6.2
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing 2 ® • •

1.54

1.54

1*54

1*54

1.54

1.53

NA

-0.6

NA

0.0

851

3.31

3.26

3.20

3.22

3*26

3.17

NA

-2.8

NA

-1.8

0.6

852

118.4

118.8

118.7

120.9

121.5

121.8

0,2

-0.1

1.9

853

0.065

0.063

0.053

0.054

-15.9

1.9

0.133
134.2

0.139
135.8

0.139
135.0

0.137
134.6
2.48

2*48

2.48

2.49

78.17
5.1

78.25

78.05

77.82

2.48

2.50

2.50

78.53
5.4

78.54
4.9

78.29
5.0

121.2

0.138

0.139

0*124

0.2

0.7
0.0

-0.3

-10,8
0.4

-0,3

854

0.0
-0.6

-1.4
-0.3

855
858

0.0

-0.8

856

-0.2
0.1

859
857

-0.3
0.1

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated by®, which appear to contain no seasonal movement. "Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
NA = not available.
a = anticipated.
EOP = end of period.
x
ln many cases, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits or are in different units than those shown in the tables in part II. Where available, annual
figures are those published by the source agencies or they are rounded from published figures; otherwise they (and the quarterly figures for monthly series)
are averages or totals of the data as shown in part II.
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
3
Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
*End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.




8

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart Al

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

1948 49

50

51

52

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

53

54

Current data for these series are shown on page 64.

BCII

AUGUST 1969



(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

225. Disposabte personal income, 105$ dollars,
Q (ana rate, biLdd.)

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 64.

10




AUGUST 1969

BCII

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

~A3T] PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

consumption expe|j||es~

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 65.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/AUGUST
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

1969

11

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 65.


12


AUGUST 1969 ItU)

Section A
^^^••H

Chart

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

A5~l FOREIGN TRADE

(July)
P

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)

+NH

Net exports of goods and services, Q

+5-

o-560555045403560-

55504540353025-

20-

15-

10J

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 66.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/AUGUST 1969
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

BCII

13

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 66.




14

AUGUST 1969

BCII

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

1948 49

50

51

52

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

53

54

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 66.


AUGUST 1969


15

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.

16




AUGUST 1969

ItOII

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
SAVING

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

1948 49

50

51

52

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

53

54

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 67.


AUGUST 1969


17

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

1948 49

50

51

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

52

53

54

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 68.




18

AUGUST 1969

BCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart Bl

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P

T

1948 49

50

51

52

(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

53

54

(May) (Feb.)

(July) (Apr.)
P T

55

56

57

58

P

59

60

T

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on pages 68 and 69.

AUGUST 1969



19

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

23456
7J

23456-

Lagging Indicators

5 and over (percent - inverted scale]
0123-

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 69.

20




AUGUST

1969

iA!«UM«:» CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B2~1 PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Roughly Coincident Indicators

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

(July) (Apr.)
P T

55

(May) (Feb.)
P T

56

65

66

67

68

69 1970

NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 70.

AUGUST 1969



21

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

1948 49

50

51

52

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

53

54

(July) (Apr.)
P T

55

56

57

58

(May) (Feb.)
P T

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 70.

22




AUGUST

1969

BCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

1948 49

50

51

52

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

53

54

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

Ouly) (Apr.)
P
T

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

T

This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without wrinen permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.

BCII

AUGUST 1969



23

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.

Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

1948 49

50

51

52

(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

53

54

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)

P

55

56

57

T

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

69 1970

68

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.

24




AUGUST 1969

ItCIt

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.

B3

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P

T

(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

(May) (Feb.)

(July) (Apr.)
P

P

T

T

Lagging Indicators
Investment Expenditures

908070-

;*61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Q (m. rate, ML aoi.)

so50 40 J

30
??0~j

100-)
80-

and equipment Safes and business construction
(arm. rate,

60 -

40

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 72.


AUGUST 1969


25

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Section B

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

in business inventories, al industries, Q

+20-,

0-

-10 J
and trade inventories
moving avg.-5-termj

+20-,

+10-

0-

-10J

t of companies reporting higher inventories

75

25in book vatee. manufacturers'
rate, m. dot; WCD moving avgHHermj

of materials and supplies

+10-,
+50-

-5-1

100-1
materials, percent of companies
60 days or longer

755025 J
1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 73.




26

AUGUST 1969

Section B
Chart

B4

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
| INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT—Con.

Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.:

p

I

(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

(July) (Apr.)
P

(May) (Feb.)

T

P

T

Inventory Investment and Purchasing - Con.

100 -i

32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower deliveries
75-

50-

25 J

21 Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(bil. dot.; MCD moving avg.-4-term)

0-

_2 J

Lagging Indicators

180160140-

*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories (bil. del)

120-

8CH
35 30-

65. BooK value of manufacturers' inventories, finished goods Ibil. dell

25 H

20-1^
o

l(/>
15-j
I

IflJ

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 73.

ItCII


AUGUST 1969


27

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

Leading Indicators
(July)
P

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

22. Ratio, profits (after taxes) to income ongtoathg,

*17. Ratio,

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

sssSf V3&

57

writ labor co$lf|»wfaetttiir« («*«: 1957-59=100)

58

:&;«&§>»

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 74.


28


AUGUST 1969

BCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities (index: 1957-59=100)

Lagging Indicators
0.800.75-

68. Labor cost (cur. del.) per unit of real corporate gross product, Q (dollars)

0.70-

0.65-

125
120
115

*62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1957-59=100)

110
105

100-

95
90

80

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

83

64

65

66

67

68

89 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 74.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ AUGUST 1969
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

!!€!»

29

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Section B

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MONEY AND CREDIT

Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

98. Change in money supply and time deposits (aim. rate, percent;
MOD moving avg.-6-term)

09. Change in money supply (am. rate, percent; MCD moving avg,6-term

33. Change to mortgage debt (ami rate, fan. dot.)

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 75.


30


AUGUST 1969

Section B
B6

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
! MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.

Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

1948 49

50

51

52

(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

53

54

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 75.


BCD
AUGUST 1969


31

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Section B

MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

93. Free reserves (bil. dol. - Inverted scale)

116. Corporate bond yields {percent)

115. Treasury bond yields (percent)

117. Municipal MM yields [percent]

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

89 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 76.




32

AUGUST

1969

BCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.

Lagging Indicators
(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

(July) (Apr.)
P T

55

56

57

58

(May) (Feb.)
P T

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 76.

ItCII


AUGUST 1969


33

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Selected Indicators by Timing

COMPOSITE INDEXES

(Nov.)
P

(July)
P

(Oct.)
T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

- 3

8,10,12,16, | , 23,29,31,113)

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 77. Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.
1 Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators.




34

AUGUST 1969

BCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing

Chart B7 I COMPOSITE INDEXES—Con.

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

120n

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 77.

ItCII

AUGUST 1969



35

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST

Leading Indicators
(July)
P

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

42 T

production workers, manufacturing (hours)

*B. New orders, durable goods

*10 Contracts anil rs, plant and

(index: 1957-59-100)

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on pages 68, 71, and 72.

36




AUGUST 1969

BCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.

Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

*17. Ratio, price toif

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

labor sast,

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on pages 73, 74, and 75.


BCD
AUGUST 1969


37

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

<-tS|

(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

4Pv?::

'-

"
j

v^sC$

3i*3fV;'V

'V« ,~

ISSJS

lllf'l;

M'-'

'l$/i?W;

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

:

* . -'

-X

'

,:'-\'

^\l\ '''£* \'-"

''"'

SHI

s->:

--. -

'-"

-

_^^^

,

&h i

MWI

ill

jS'

*r

*m- ^£*mMWK*jfc^*W

s~*^

x^

1000-,
950900
850
800
750
700
650
800
750

700
650
*205. GNP ii 1958 dollars,
Q (ann. rate, bit dot)

47, Industrial production (index:^-59=100)

"52. Personal income (ann. rate, bfl. dot

*56. Manufacturing and trade
sates (bil. dol.)

of retail stores p. dol.)

total (percent-inverted scale

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

1
65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.

38




AUGUST 1969

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing

Chart B8

NBER SHORT LIST—Con.

Lagging Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

rates on short-term business torn, Q (percent)

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on pages 69, 72, 73, 74, and 76.

BCII


AUGUST 1969


39

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

Chart Cl

(July)
P

AGGREGATE SERIES

(May)
P

(Apr.)
T

(Feb.)
T

9080expenditures for new plant
all Industries, Q

7060-

(a) Actual expenditures
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)

50-

40-

30-

110(b) Second anticipations as
percent of actual [p€rc6Rt|

r t . tt,..
•

4

.*|-a"i|*A*

105-

B

o T.I .Tltl

100- '

95-

110(c) First anticipations as

105-

tit! JJ I

100-

95-

1957

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70 1971

Current data for these series are shown on page 78.

40




AUGUST 1969

ItCII

Section C

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES—Con.

(July)
P

(May)
P

(Apr.)
T

(Feb.)
T

412* Manufacturers' inventories, total
book vilu«,Q [M. dol.)

pwcantamsidOTdWgtilesspenart
'

of mffliufwitufers' capacity: percent
percent considered

1957

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

1971

Current data for these series are shown on page 78.


BCJI AUGUST 1969


41

Section C

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.

(July)
P

(May)
P

(Apr.)
T

(Feb.)
T

60 n

of fioi&eftofcts reporting BO change ta faro% income (percent)
50-

40-

Percent of households reporting higher faniry income (percent)
30- 1

20-

family income (percent)
10-

Qj

20 n

changes to income of households, Q

la10-

's

5J
11 T

10-

9-

a) Actual (quarterly)

(ann. rate, mil. cars
Actual. 2-quarter moving am

1

(c) Anticipations
7 J
110-

(d) Anticipations as percent of actual oara {percent]

n

inJ

105-

100

II
1

959085110q

\

100- ,

V

.-'-X.,
v--vX

90-

<

80-

1957

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

1971

Current data for these series are shown on page 78.




42

AUGUST 1969

BCII

Section C
Chart C2

DIFFUSION INDEXES

lOQ-i

Mew outers, manufacturing (441 span)1

75-

50-

25 J
100 ~j

manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)'
„.>*—»..
75-

50-

-1

25-

25 ~;

0446. Hunter of mvtoyee;, mmrtactirtK art trad. (441 span)1

50 »i 1

•>c
(i.

1957

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

J

1971

Current data for these series are shown on page 79.
i
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without wrinen permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.


AUGUST 1969


43

Section C

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.

(July)

P

(Apr.)

T

(May)

(Feb.)

P

T
100 T

Selfing prices, manufacturing (4-Q span]1

1

1957

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

1971

Current data for these series are shown on page 79.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.

44




AUGUST 1969

ltd*

Section C

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.

(July)
P

(May)

(Apr.)
T

(Feb.)

indexes:
$J inmiMK
expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries (1-Q span)
a) Actual expenditures

(b) Second anticipations

(a) Actual expenditures

(c) Ftfst anticipations

Freight cartoadings (4-fc span)

480. Change in freight cartoadings (4-Q span)

1957

58

59


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ AUGUST 1969
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

BCII

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

1971

45

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

(July)
P

(Nov.) (Oct)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

500. Mewhanrfise trade balance (WI.M;MCD moving avg.-6-terrn)
+0.5-

-0.5J

HL

miteiy aid (l^| MCD moving avg.-6-term)

506. Export orders, durabl

512. General sports

1948 49

50

51

52

MCD inovtRg avg.~4

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 81.




46

AUGUST

1969

ItCII

OTHER KEY

Section D
Chart D2

j BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS

520. Liquidity balance basis
(Change in U.S. official reserve assets and change
in liquid liabilities to all foreigners)

{Change it U.S. official reserve assets, and change
to ipiM liabilities W certain nonfiquid VabtHties

r-16

Excess of receipts (Inflow)
Excess of payments (outflow)
—12

basis1 (Outflow (-) left scale)

527. Net capital movements,
uiffem swtieifteiitA o
(outflow (-) tett scate)

h-8

-4

250. Balance on goods and services
(surpkis (+) right scate)

s 4

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 82. Annual totals are used prior to 1960 except for series 520.
1 1ncludes unilateral transfers and errors and omissions.

BCII


AUGUST


1969

47

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.

40 T

Major Components, Except Military Grants
of Goods and Services-Con.

36-

32-

28-

530. Liquid liabilities to ail foreigners, outstandng at end of period

24-

20-

16-

Y

12-

532. Liquid and certain nonfiquid liabilities to
foreign mm agencies, outstanding at end of period

4-

24-,
resove assets-resente ,^rt||^;i^:if period

20-

16-

12J

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 82. End of year figures are used prior to 1960.

48



AUGUST 1969

BCII

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

56n

Goods and Services Movements,
Except Transfers Under Military Grants
Annual fate, billion dollars [

52-

48-

Excess of receipts
Excess of payments
44-

40-

Goods and services-

3640-

36-

250. Balance on goods and services

32-

28-

Merchandise, adjusted-

24-

*>
S

536
20-

16-

12-

Investment income, military sates
ana expenditures, and other services8-

4-J

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 82. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.


AUGUST 1969


49

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

Investment Income, Military Sales
and Expenditures, and Other Services

Annual rate, bilion dollars
Excess of receipts (inflow)
Excess of payments (outflow)
12 i

542. Income on U.S. investments abroad
4-

0J

543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.
Si

Travel4--

545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad
0-

544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.

Military sates and expenditures-

547. U.S. military expenditures abroad
4-

oJ
546. Military sales to foreigners

Transportation and other services—

54S. Payments

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

0J

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.




50

AUGUST 1969

BCII

Section D
Chart D2

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

Capital movements plus Government
nonmilitary unilateral transfers

Annual rate, billion dollars

Excess of receipts (inflow)
Excess of payments (outflow)
Direct investments-

531. U.S. investments abroad
44

13

0 -<

560. Foreign investments in the U.S.

Securities investments565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities

564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities

570. Government grants and capital transactions, net

575. Banking and other capital transactions, net

.1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64 ' 65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.

BCII AUGUST




1969

51

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

and product accounts, Q(ann. rate, bil.dol.)

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 84.

52




AUGUST 1969

licit

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con.

(Nov.)
P

(Oct.)
T

(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

(May) (Feb.)

(July) (Apr.)
P

T

P

T
100-1
9080706050-

87•S
6- %
5-

3-

Department obligations, procurement
MCD moving avg.-6-term)

2-

1.
61
54-

3-

2-

1.
51
4-

3-

1948 49

50

51

52

53v 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 84.

AUGUST 1969



53

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
PRICE MOVEMENTS

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

1948 49

50

51

52

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

53

54

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July! (Apr.)
P T

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 85.

54




AUGUST 1969

itcn

Section D
Chart

D4

i PRICE MOVEMENTS—Con.

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

1948

49

50

51

52

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

53

54

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 85.

BCII AUGUST




1969

55

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

Chart El

ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

Current data for these series are shown on page 86.
1 Trend line of 3-1/2 percent per year through middle of 1955

56



(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

55

56

57

from 1st quarter 1952

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

1970

to 4th quarter 1962, 3-3/4 percent from 4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, and 4 percent thereafter.

AUGUST 1969

BCD

Section E

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

[Chart E2

ANALYTICAL RATIOS

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

53

54

1948 49

50

51

52

(May) (Feb.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 87.

IICII

AUGUST 196,9



57

Section E

ANALYTICAL MEASURES
ANALYTICAL RATIOS—Con.

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
. P
T

, personal saving to disposable personal income, Q

Ratio, nonagricuitural job openings unfilled to number of persons unemployed

856. Real average hourly earnings, production workers,

average weekly earnings, nonagricultural
kers (1957-59 dollars

857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing, a (percent)

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

these series are shown on page 87.

58




AUGUST 1969

BCD

Section E
Chart

E3

DIFFUSION INDEXES

Leading Indicators
(July! (Ap r .
P'
T

=May .Fen.*
P
\

Percent rising
01. Averap workweek, production workers, manufacturing ~ 21 industries (9-mo. span— , 1-mo. span—-)
lOO-i

D6. New orders, durable goods Industries-36 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—)

Oil. Newly approved capital appropriations - 17 industries, NICB (3-0 span~~, 1-0 span.—)

034. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting higher profits - about 1,000 manufacturing corporations (1-Q span)

019. Stock prices, 500 common stocks - 77 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—-)

023. industrial materials prices - 13 industrial materials (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span--)

05. Initial clains, Stats unemployment insurance - 47 areas (percent declining; 9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span---)

l^-S

4*

50

51

5?

S3

b*

f*

56

57

bg

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

1970

Current data for these series are shown on pages 88 and 89.

AUGUST




1969

59

Section E

ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

1948 49

50

51

52

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

53

54

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 90.

60



AUGUST 1969

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

CONSUMER PRICES
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 97.

AUGUST 1969




61

Section F

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON!
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

80

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 98.

62




AUGUST 1969

BCII

Section F
Chart

1948 49

F3 | STOCK PRICES

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69 1970

Current data for these series are shown on page 99.

AUGUST 1969



63

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter

200. Current dollars
a. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

b. Difference
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

205. Constant (1958) dollars
a. Total

c. Percent
change
at annual
rate

210. Implicit price deflator

b. Difference c. Percent
change
at annual
(Ann. rate,
rate
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

a. Total

b. Difference
(Index:
1958-100)

(Index:
1958=100)

c. Percent
change
at annual
rate

1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

729.5
743.3
755.9
770.7

+19.5
+13.8
+12.6
+14.8

+10.8
+7.6
+6.8
+8.0

774.2
783.5
800.4

+3.5
+9.3
+16.9
+15.7

835.3
858.7
876.4
892.5

+19.2

668.1

+12.5
+5.9
+5.2
+7.9

+8.0
+3.6
+3.2
+4.8

112.4
113.5
114.5
115.4

+0.9
+1.1
+1.0
+0.9

+3.2
+4.0
+3.6
+3.2

+2.0
+4.8
+8.8
+8.0

666.5
670.5
678.0
683.5

-1.6
+4.0
+7.5
+5.5

-0.8
+2.4
+4.4
+3.2

116.2
116.9
118.1
119.4

+0.8
+0.7
+1.2
+1.3

+2.8
+2.4
+4.0
+4.4

+9.6

693.3
705.8

+9.8

+5.6
+7.2
+4.0
+3.2

120.5
121.7
122.9
124.2

+1.1
+1.2
+1.2
+1.3

+3.6
+4.0
+4.0
+4.4

+1.5
r+1.6

r+5.2

649.1

655.0
660.2

1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

816.1

1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

+23.4

+17.7
+16.1

+11.2
+8.4

+7.2

712.8
718.5

+7.2
+7.2

r?26.7

+12.5
+7.0
+5.7

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

908.7
r924.8

+16.2
r+16.1

723.1

GROSS NATIONAL
'PRO DUCT-Con.
Year
and
quarter

+2.4

125.7

r+2.0

r027.3

+4.8

NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME

215. Per capita 217. Per capita
GNP, constant
GNP, current
(1958) dollars
dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)

+4.6
r+3.6

(Ann. rate,
dollars)

220. National
income in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

222. Personal
income in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Disposable personal income
224. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

225. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

226. Per capita,
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)

227. Per capita,
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate, dol.)

1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

3,720
3,780
3,833
3,895

3,310
3,331

615.0

3,347
3,377

626.9
637.3

3,903
3,940

3,360
3,372
3,400

603.2

453.5
454.7

570.3
580.7
592.9
605.0

499.9
506.0
525.6

461.2
466.1

639.3
646.2
658.5
672.0

615.2

534.4

471.6

688.8
707.4

664.3

515.9

2,549
2,574

2,313
2,313

2,656

2,339
2,356

2,694
2,724
2,760
2,799

2,378
2,394
2,404

2,616

1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

4,014

4,080

3,418

4,168

3,459

4,274
4,350

3,513

622.2
634.5
645.9

541.6

550.3
559.S

476.0
479.4
483.7

2,419

1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .

4,418

3,538
3,557

4,488
r4,556

r3,580

724.1
737.3

575.0
587.4
593.4
604.3

492.1

680.1
696.1
711.2

497.4
498.9
502.1

2,869
2,924
2,946
2,991

2,455
2,476
2,477
2,485

724.4
r740.5

r6l0.2
r622.0

r502.6
r506.2

r3,014
r3,065

r2,482
r2,494

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

3,571

751.3

P765.0

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

64




AUGUST 1969

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Year
and

230. Total in
current dollars

231. Total in
constant (1958)
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

quarter

232. Durable goods, 233. Durable goods, 234. Automobiles
total except autos,
total in current
in current dollars
in current dollars
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

237. Services in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

457.8
461.9
471.2
474.5

415.3
415.1
421.3
420.7

71.2
68.5
71.3
71.9

44.4
44.5
46.2
46.5

26.8
24.0
25.1
25.4

202.6
206.4
209.6
209.1

183.9
186.9
190.2
193.5

480.9
489.8
495.7
502.6

424.4
430.5
431.9
434.3

70.0
73.5
73.3
75.2

46.9
47.6
47.9
50.0

23.1
25.9
25.4
25.2

213.2
214.4
215.8
216.8

197.7
201.8
206.6
210.6

520.6
530.3
544.9
550.7

445.6
449.0
458.2
457.6

79.5
81.8
85.8
86.3

51.1
52.6
54.1
54.9

28.4
29.2
31.7
31.4

226.1
228.5
233.3
234.3

215.1
220.0
225.8
230.1

562.0
r572.8

462.9
P466.2

88.4
r90.6

57.5
P59.2

30.9
P31.4

238.6
r.242.1

235.0
r240.1

1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS

Year

240. Total

and
quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

241. Nonresident!al
fixed investment

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

242. Nonresidential
structures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

243. Producers'
durable equipment

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

244. Residential
structures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

245. Change in
business inventories

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

117.5
122.4
119.6
126.2

78.8
80.3
83.0
84.2

28.6
28.2
29.0
28.2

50.2
52.1
54.0
56.0

27.4
26.0
24.7
22.1

+11.3
+16.2
+11.9
+19.9

113.6
109.4
117.7
123.3

83.3
83.0
83.5
85.0

29.0
27.2
27.8
27.8

54.2
55.8
55.7
57.2

21.4
23.1
26.5
28.8

+9.0
+3.4
+7.8
+9.5

119.4
126.6
125.2
133.9

89.1
86.4
88.1
91.5

29.8
28.3
29.0
30.1

59.4
58.1
59.1
61.4

28.6
30.3
29.9
31.9

+1.6
+7.2
+10.5

135.2
rl37.4

95.3
r97.8

32.3

63.0
r65.7

33.3
r32.7

+6.6
r+6.9

1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .

+9.9

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers^jre for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

ItCII

AUGUST 1969



65

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Q

Q FOREIGN TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
IN CURRENT DOLLARS

250. Net exports
of goods and
services

252. Exports
of goods and
services

253. Imports
of goods and
services

260. Total

262. Federal

264. National
defense

266. State and
local

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. fate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1966
First Quarter
Second Quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

+6.2
+5.6
+4.4
+4.9

42.2
42.7
43.7
44.8

36.0
37.1
39.3
39.9

148.0
153.4
160.7
165.2

72.8
75.6
80.5
82.1

55.3
58.5
63.3
65.6

75.2
77.7
80.1
83.0

+5.4
+5.8
+5.6
+3.8

45.8
45.9
46.3
46.7

40.4
40.1
40.7
42.8

174.2
178.5
181.3
186.4

87.8
90.3
91.3
93.5

69.9
71.9
73.0
74.6

86.4
88.1
90.0
92.9

+1.9
+3.4
+3.6
+1.2

47.7
50.7
53.4
50.6

45.9
47.3
49.7
49.4

193.4
198.4
202.5
206.7

96.3
99.0
100.9
101.9

76.1
77.9
78.8
79.3

97.1
99.4
101.7
104.8

+1.5
r+1.6

47.6
r57.1

46.1
r55.5

210.0
r212.9

101.6
100.6

79.0
r78.5

108.5
rl!2.3

1967
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter. .....
Fourth quarter

1968
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third Quarter . ...
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

Qj FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES IN C U R R E N T DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter

270. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1966
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter.

271. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS

280. Compensation
of employees

Nondurable goods

Durable goods

H

274. Final sales 275. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

282. Proprietors'
income

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

284. Rental income
of persons

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

142.2
142.6
148.1
151.8

+8.2
+10.6
+10.2
+13.2

217.6
220.9
225.3
225.4

+3.1
+5.6
+1.7
+6.7

420.1
430.9
441.4
449.7

62.1
61.2
6l.l
60.8

19.6
19.8
20.1
20.3

151.9
158.3
157.7
160.0

+4.2
+1.5
+4.4
+5.6

230.7
234.2
235.5
235.9

+4.7
+1.8
+3.4
+3.9

456.2
461.1
470.7
481.7

60.8
61.7
62.6
62.3

20.6
20.8
20.9
21.0

166.4
168.9
173.7
176.6

+1.9
+6.8
+5.1
+7.4

246.5
250.4
256.1
256.4

-0.3
+3.1
+2.1
+3.1

495.1
507.0
519.8
532.3

63.2
63.6
64.1
64.1

21.1
21.2
21.2
21.4

181.6
P185.5

+4.8
P^.9

259.7
P264.1

+1.8
pf2.1

546.0
r558.2

64.6
r66.5

21.5
21.6

1967
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

1968
First quarter
Second quarter —
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

1969
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

66




AUGUST 1969

ItCII

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

INCOME COMPONENTS
BNATIONAL
IN CURRENT DOLLARS-Con.
Year
and
quarter

Qj SAVING.IN CURRENT DOLLARS

286. Corporate
profits and
inventory valuation adjustment

288. Net interest

290. Gross saving

292. Personal
saving

294. Undistributed
corporate pro fits
plus inventory valuation adjustment

296. Capital consumption
allowances

298. Government
surplus or deficit

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. ,rate,
bil. dol.)

1966
First Quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1967
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
First quarter

Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

81.5
82.1
82.5
83.7

19.9
21.0
21.8
22.8

121.0
126.3
123.5
128.8

29.6
31.2
31.6
37.7

26.2
26.8
26.9
29.6

62.5
63.5
64.4
65.3

+2.7
+4.7
+0.6
-3.8

78.3
78.3
79.1
81.1

23.5
24.3
25.1
25.9

117.5
113.6
119.9
125.6

40.0
37.7
40.7
43.1

24.8
24.1
24.6
25.5

66.8
67.9
69.2
70.4

-14.1
-16.0
-14.6
-13.4

82.5
88.2
90.6
90.3

26.7
27.5
28.4
29.3

120.5
128.8
129.1
135.4

39.9
42.3
33.2
38.0

20.4
24.1
25.6
23.6

71.7
73.0
73.7
74.6

-11.5
-10.8
-3.5
-0.9

89.5

29.8
30.3

138.5
pU2.0

r32.5
r33.3

r22.3
r21.1

75.9
77.2

+7.8
p+10.4

P88.5

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by©. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "rn indicates revised;' p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and aNA"1 not available.

ItCIt

 AUGUST 1969


67

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS

Q EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
LEADING INDICATORS

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

Marginal Employment Adjustments

Job Vacancies

....

Minor Economic
Process

*1. Average work- *4. Nonagricultural
week of production placements, all
1
workers, manufac- industries
turing -1

Year
and
month

(Hours)

(Thous.)

2. Accession rate,
manufacturing1

5. Average weekly
mjitiaL claims for
unemployment
insurance, State
programs 2

(Per 100 employees)

(Thous.)

3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing

(Per 100 employees)

49. Nonagricultural
job openings unfilled1

46. Index of helpwanted advertising
in newspapers

(Thous.)

(1957-59-100)

1967
41.0
40.3
40.5

512
500
492

4.6
4.3
4.1

196
231
256

1.3
1.5
1.7

395
379
366

189
190
184

April
May
June

40.5
40.4
40.4

485
481
483

4.2
4.6
4.5

259
236
231

1.5
1.4
1.4

353
351
352

181
174
171

July
August
September

40.5
40.7
40.8

478
481

4.4
4.4

231
212
217

1.4
1.3

October
November
December

40.7
40.7
40.7

476
471

4.5
4.5
4.4

220
209
204

1.3
1.2
1.2

358
354

186
187
190

January
February
March

40.2
40.7
40.8

478
471
481

4.5
4.5
4.1

206
196
194

1.3
1.3
1.3

359
363
371

184
202

April
May
June

40.1
40.9
40.9

487
475
486

4.7
4.6
4.5

193
195
194

1.1
1.3
1.1

380
394
386

188
187
189

July
August.
September

40.9
40.7
41.0

520
477
478

4.7
4.6
4.7

189
199
194

1.2
1.2
1.2

375
367
376

185
198
219

October
November
December

40.9
40.8
40.8

466
454
443

4.8
4.6
4.7

188
190
190

1.2
1.1
1.1

374
372
373

213
222
226

January
February
March

40.6
40.1
40.9

448
459
431

4.9
4.6
4.6

179
186
184

1.1
1.1
. 1.2

372
375
365

221
230
B>232

April
May
June

40.8
40.7
40.7

452
427
460

4.9
4.8
P4.9

176
180
201

1.0
1.1

377
387
383

227
217
209

January
February
March

. .

. .

169
354

1968

1969

July
August
September

P40.7
.

...

P446

fc>

197

(NA)

210

October
November
December
NOTE1 Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
ndicated by |tt>- for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
[iS> Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and 1"NA", not available.
,
^^ „ .

Series that reached their high values prior to 1967 are as follows: Series 1, high value (4-1.6) reached in Feb. 1966: Series
4, high value (586), in May 1962; Series 2, high value (5.2), in Mar. 1966; Series 49, high value (437), in July 1966. 2^Q+Q
exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published 1jy source agency.

68




AUGUST 1969

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q| EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Con.

TIMING CLASS ....

Minor Economic
Process

Comprehensive Employment

48. Man-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments

Year
and
month

LAGGING
INDICATORS

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS- Con.

(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)

*41. Number of
employees on
nonagricultural
payrolls,
establishment
survey
(Thous.)

42. Persons
engaged in
nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey
(Thous.)

*43. Unemployment rate, total

45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs *?

(Percent)

(Percent)

1967
January
February
March

131.38
130.64
130.73

65,342
65,379
65,459

70, 137
70, 188
69,935

3.7
3.7
3.7

2.3
2.4

April
May
June

130.36
130.74
131.10

65,469
65,563
65,747

70,144
69,804
70,407

July
August
September

131.16
131.77
131.98

65,799
66,016
66,003

October
November
December

131.75
133.02
132.79

1968
January
February
March
April
May
June

......

July
August
September
October
November

. ..

December

Long-Duration
Unemployment

Comprehensive Unemployment

40. Unemployment rate,
married males

(Percent)

*44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15
weeks and over

(Percent)

2.6

1.8
1.7
1.8

0.6
0.6
0.6

3.8
3.9
3.9

2.6
2.7
2.6

1.9
1.9
1.9

0.6
0.6
0.6

70,649
70,721
70,929

3.9
3.8
4.0

2.8
2.6
2.4

1.8
1.9
1.8

0.6
0.6
0.6

66,083
66,600
66,734

71,023
71,135
71,293

4.2
3.8
3.7

2.3
2.3
2.2

1.8
1.8
1.7

0.6
0.6
0.6

131.60
133.29
133.53

66,720
67,165
67,286

71,124
71,566
71,786

3.6
3.7
3,7

2.3
2.3
2.2

1.7
1.7
1.7

0.6
0.6
0.6

133.54
134.21
134.75

67,466
67,550
67,816

71,737
72,0'27
72, 156

3.5
3.0
3.7

2.1
2.2
2.2

1.6
1.6
1.7

0.5
0.5
0.5

135.24
135.57
135.75

67,945
68,088
68,195

72,195
72,222
72,349

3.7
3.5
3.6

2.3
2.3
2.1

1.6
1.6
1.6

0.6
0.5
0.5

135.89
135.83
136.19

68,427
68,664
68,875

72,477
72,682
72,923

3.6
3.4
3.3

2.0
2.0
2.0

1.6
1.6
1.4

0.5
0.4
0.4

r!37.07
r!37.08

69,199
69,487
69,710

73,477
73,848
74,035

3.3
E>3.3

1.4
1.4

B>i-4

0.4
0.4

3.4

2.1
2.1
2.0

B>0.4

73,941
73,460
73,966

3.5
3.5
3.4

2.0
R>2.0
2.1

1.5
1.5
1.5

0.5
0.5
0.5

6J>.fc>7/L qoq

3 6

16

0 5

1969

January
February
March

r 138. 44
138.42
rl39.15

April
May
June
July
August
September

r 139. 39
fiT"*--*. nT3Q #7

69,789
r70,013
r70,270
B-^^rtfO /i.62
|£^>PfU,i4.0<£

2 «

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
, current low values are indicated by
indicated by E>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,, 5,, 14,, 39,, 40,, 43,, 44,, 45,, and 93),
. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and"NA", not available.
1

Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.


AUGUST 1969


69

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

23 PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE

TIMING CLASS ....

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATOR 5

Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

Comprehensive Production

*200. Gross na- *205. Gross national product
tional product
in current dolin 1958 dollars
lars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)

1967
January
February
March

Comprehensive Income

*47. Index of
industrial production

53. Wages and *56. Manufacsalaries in min- turing and trade
ing, manufactur- sales
ing, and con-

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

*52. Personal
income

Comprehensive Consumption and Trade

(1957-59=100)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

struction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

57. Final sales *54. Sales of
(series 200
retail stores
minus series
245)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

77k. 2

666 [5

158.3
156.7
156.6

612.8
614.9
617.9

162.7
161.4
161.2

88,078
87,323
87,632

765^2

25,828
25,478
25,758

April
May
June

783.5

6?6! 5

156.7
155.6
155,7

619.3
621.2
626.1

161.2
160.9
161.7

87,656
88,016
89,184

780.*2

25,940
25,966
26,488

July
August
September

8CXX4

678^0

156.4
158.3
156.8

630.4
635.2
637.8

163.2
165.0
165.1

88,508
89,967
90,113

792! 6

26,325
26,298
26,899

October
November
December

816.1

683.5

157.2
159.8
162.1

639.0
645.6
653.0

165.0
168.4
170.2

89,072
90,770
92,147

806.6

26,129
26,396
26,545

January
February
March

835^3

6933

161.2
162.0
163.0

656.3
664.6

93,184
93,758
94,463

833^6

671.9

170.4
173.6
174.3

27,043
27,449
27,996

April
May
June

858.*7

705 .*8

162.5
164.2
165.8

674.2
680.2
685.9

174.3
177.1
177.9

94,552
96,069
97,423

848.' 8

27,791
28,158
28,320

July
August
September

876.*4

712.8

166.0
164.6
165.1

691.0
696.1
701.1

179.0
179.7
181.8

98,368
97,083
99,135

869^2

28,674
28,760
28,902

718! 5

166.0
167.5
168.7

706.2

892! 5

183.3
184.6
186.7

99,675
100,142
98,671

882!6

28,697
28,806
28,347

723^1

169.1
170.1
171.4

718.7

908!?

187.1
187.6
190,7

100,137
101,390
101,510

902!l

28,989
29,289
28,916

g>r924*.8

B>r726!7

171.7
172.7
173.9

735.6
r740.0
x-746.1

102,352
rl03,232
rl95.3 £>P104,093

g> r917i9

29,442
r29,386
r29,337

g>pl75.2

B> P752.3

1968

October
November
December . . . .
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September

7H.5
716.0

723.9
730.7

192.1
193.1

g> P196.3

(NA)

|>p29,481

October
November
December
NOTE' Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by &>• for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14 f 39, 40, 43, 44f 45f and 93), current low values are indicated by
ftb> Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; V;anticipated;
and "NA", not available.

70




AUGUST 1969

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

D

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS .......
TIMING CLASS

....

LEADING INDICATORS

Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

Formation of Business
Enterprises

New Investment Commitments

*12. Index of net 13. Number of new *6. Value of
business formation business incorpora- manufacturers'
tions
new orders,
durable goods
industries
(1957-59-100)

(Number)

(Bil.dol.)

8. Index of
construction
contracts,
total
value1
(1957-59=100)

*10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and equipment
(Bil.dol.)

11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations
(Bil.dol.)

24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders, machinery and
equipment industries
(Bil. dol.)

"(8)

1967
January
February
March

102.2
103 2
103 3

April
May
June

105 o

July
August
September

108.4
110.7
110.3

October ....
November . .
December
1968
January
February . . . .
March

16,703

23,94

126

5 92

15 987

2L 15
2^ 52.

1 j.o
•"O
"1/iQ

A Ta
O.Jo

2L OL
25 ^0
25 77

nog
J-JO

6 nr»
6 no
6 ;.n

16 244

103 7

16 760

108 1

17 627
17 799

A lA

-\ ci.

J-?*4°] £.1.

5 • ( <•
rjf)

rjf)

' ' *•

16 300

2L 92

"U9

6

165

18,118

25 88
25 18

6
57
°Of
A Lt

110.6
112.7
113.8

18 000
18 403
18,168

25 68
25 85
28 06

168

6

166

A LI

113.5
114.7
113.8

17,223
18,014
17,974

26.84
26 81
28.00

159
156
176

6 50
6 67

April
May
June

112.8
112.7
114.5

18,659
18,796
19,197

27.37
27.17
26.70

146
172
160

6 20
6 62
7 20

_C

July
August
September

119.0
119.1
121.2

19,530
20,011
20,986

26.92
27.33
28.38

187
192
183

6.96
7.85
7.20

rA 59

October ... .
November
December
1969
January
February
March

123.9
123.4
125.3

21,394
21,155
20,292

30.28

200
183

8.18

125 2

20,578
22,199
21,353

29.68

191

30.48
29.70

205
177

123.9
123.1
125.6

23,467
23,23C
fc>23,711

|T> 30.94
^^ 30.00
r29.17

183
B> 210
180

(NA)

(NA)

P30.78

176

g> 125 8
121 2

April
May
June
July
August
September .

29 32
29 ^A

0J.

c fto
p.oic

6 51

7 29
7 79

179

fc>

5 .09
no

Qrt
5 Oo

0A
5 OG
1«
55 •0^r
t

•^5

A AA
/.0

4 .70
00
5.08

5

17 674

168

5 CY7
p.uy
5 .02
no

r A5 • 7/i

_C rt/-i

5 oi
on
r

O. 7

5 Or
CA
5 .>u
5 A7
*>*H-r

qc*
5 O°

c oc>
5Oo

rp. rji
m.

5

/.Q

e ;.r
5«*4->>
5 97

5 71
A 03
5 92

6.55

r6 63

A O9

A ^y,

7.98
7.84
7.50

r6.65

6 20
6.51
6.41

8.26
8.01
r7.83

gr^>. p7.48

K> 7.10
6.43
r6.53

p7 81

p6.42

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Current high values are
indicated by B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14 r 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
[B>>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and M NA", not available.
•""This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.
8
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

K<:U

AUGUST



1969

71

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.

TIMING CLASS ....

LEADING INDICATORS-Con.

Minor Economic
Process

New Investment Commitments-Con.

Year
and
month

9. Construction
contracts, commercial and industrial
buildings1
(Mil. sq. ft. floor
space)

7. New private
nonfarm housing
units started

(Ann. rate, thous.)

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

LAGGING INDICATORS

Backlog of Investment Commitments

Investment Expenditures

*29. Index of new 96. Manufacturers'
private housing
unfit led orders,
units authorized by durable goods
local building
industries
permits
(1957-59*100)

(Bil. dol.)

97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing
(Bil. dol.)

*61. Business
expenditures on
new pi ant and
equipment, total

69. Machinery and
equipment sales
and business construction expenditures

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

(3)

1967
January
February
March

49.09
57 84
56 14

1,079

83.1

77 36

1 1*32

78 Q
81 Q

77 02
76 (U

April
May
June

58.2?
54 72
62.30

1 099
1 254
1 214

90 7

75 ftft
76 52
77 ?1

July
August
September

56.72
61.66
60 45

1 356
1,381
1 415

96 4
99.4
102 3

77 82
77 94

October
November
December

5#.42
63.17
64.08

1,478
1,567
1,235

106 9
102.2
116.7

78 82
79 13
80 58

20 41

64.51
61.39
66.61

1,430
1,499
1,479

97.2
120.0
121.4

80.49
80.59
81.75

r!9.01

47.09
66.96
66.35

1,562
1,345
1,348

113.7
106.9
107.0

82.24
81.90
80.97

r!8.93

July
August
September

71.65
66.15
61.59

1,507
1,496
1,570

107.7
107.8
116.4

79.68
80.18
80.57

r!9.44

October
November
December . . . .
1969
January
February
March

79.63
69.70
71*47

1,541
1,705
1,492

115.2
119.1
122*3

81*8$
82.43
84*07

20.02

117.2
123.4
118.7

84.43
84.99
85.16

r20.48

1 067

91 1

97 9

77 Q-Zi.

76 75

Ai £5

on
fO.yu

rjL

20 42

75
5*3
f 5'sJ
rjl

Lrj

fit-. O f

AT en

7/i QO
riL ort

20 25

7A A/I

60 90

77

QO

7ft 5ft

20 42

62 70

7A 7Q
77 Q2
7Q QL

64.75

80.77
80.79
80.59

62.60

81.59
80.32
80.86

63.20

80.09
82.40
85.08

65.90

86 15
88 21
85 46

K>68.90

90.00
91.42
90.31

a72.66
...

88.84
r89.84
|T>p91.78

1968

January
February
March
April
May
June

...

fc>'94.41

69.98
63.50

ft> 1,845
1,664
1,567

April
May
June

65.82
85.60
79.12

1,548
rl,495
rl,441

R> 125.5
*^ 110.6
rl!2.0

July
August
September

72,43

pi, 314

plOO.8

October
November
December

fc>

86.46
86.88
r85.91

...
B>p21.54

p86.45
a73.45

(NA)

a74.00

NOTE' Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by [FD>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
{{£:>' Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.
2
Data for 1st quarter 1968 to date are not comparable with earlier data. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page

111
72



AUGUST 1969

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

H| INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

TIMING CLASS ....

Minor Economic
Process

245. Change in *31. Change in
book value of
business
mfg. and trade
inventories1
inventories,
total1
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
bil. dol.)

Year
and
month

1967
January
February
March

LEADING INDICATORS

LAGGING INDICATORS

Inventory Investment and Purchasing

Inventories

37. Purchased
materials, companies reporting higher
inventories1
(Percent
reporting)

20. Change in
book value of
mfrs.' inventories of mtls.1
and supplies
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

26. Production
materials, companies reporting
commitments 60
days or longer@3
(Percent
reporting)

32. Vendor
performance^
companies reporting slower
deliveries^
(Percent
reporting)

25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries1

*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value

65. Manufacturers' inventories of
finished goods,
book value

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

+9.6

+12.8
+5.7
+5.0

48
45
46

+2.6
+0.4
+0.6

72
67
68

48
51
38

-0.63
-0.34
-0.98

138.25
138.73
139.15

25.43
25.68
25.82

April
May
June

+6.4
+2.9
-0.7

37
40
43

-1.6
-0.4
-0.9

67
66
68

39
36
38

-0.17

+3.1

+0.65
+0.79

139.68
139.92
139.87

26.22
26.41
26.36

July
August
September

+7.*8

+5.6
+6.7
+4.2

40
42
44

+1.4
+0.2
-2.2

61
66
61

41
43
44

140.34
140.90
141.25

26.43
26.61
26.64

October
November .
December

+9^5

+2.6
+13.1
+14.6

%
54

+0.1
+0.6
+0.3

62
63
64

50
51
48

+0.31
+1.45

141.46
142.55
143.77

26.63
26.70
26.81

+l!6

+4.0
+8.6
+4.0

55
53
52

-0.5
+1.2
+0.9

64
61
64

50
55
54

-0.09
+0.10
+1.16

144.11
144.82
145.15

26.97
27.09
27.21

April
May
June

+16.0
+15.9
+8.6

51
55
59

+4.0
+4.7
+1.7

68
64
67

52
52
52

+0.48

+9^9

146.49
147.81
148.52

27.35
27.59
27.64

July
August
September

-1-7.2

+6.5
+10.3
+9.6

59
55
40

+3.5
+2.0
-0.9

68
66
60

56
46
46

149.06
149.92
150.72

27.79
28.15
28.44

-KUX5

+16.8
+9.8
+11.1

42
44
43

+1.9
-2.2
+0.6

62
60
60

52
60
56

+1.32

152.12
152.94
153.86

28.64
28.92
29.13

+6^6

+3.8
+15.0
+12.7

43
47
49

-0.4
-0.4
+4.0

57
58
63

62
61
61

+0.36
+0.56

154.18
155.43
156.49

29.08
29.41
29.61

49
52
50

+1.3
+2.8
-1.1

65
64
66

68
69
70

+0.42
r-0.97

157.57
fj>pl59.20

29.98
30.41
B>30.45

51

(NA)

59

66

P+0.54

(NA)

1968
January
February
March

October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September

....
r+6.*9

. ..

+12.9
r+13.5
p+6.1
(NA)

+0.50
+0.12
+0.01

+0.88

-0.34
-0.93
-1.29

+0.49
+0.40
+0.54
+1*64

+0.16
+1.30

r 158. 69

(NA)

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Current high values are
indicated by E>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93)f current low values are indicated by
fc>.
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are7 included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA W , not available.
1
Series that reached their high values prior to 1967 are as follows: Series 2^5, high value (+19.8) reached in 4th quarter 1966;
Series 31, high value (+20.0), in June 1966; Series 37, high value (63), in Nov. 1964; Series 20, high value (+5.7), in Aug. 1966;
Series 26, high value (75), in Oct. 1966; Series 32, high value (86), in Mar. 1966; Series 25, high value (+1.82), in Sept. 1966.

BCII

 AUGUST 1969


73

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Qj PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Com- MOCK
~tnrl. Prices
modity Prices

*23. Index of
industrial
materials 1
prices®

Profits and Profit Margins

*19. Index of *16. Corpostock prices, rate profits1
500 common after taxes
stocks®

(1957-59=100) (1941-43=10)

(Ann. ratet
bil. dol.)

22. Ratio of
profits to
income originating, corporate,1 all
indus.
(Percent)

1967
January
February .
March

106 8
105 2
102 5

84.45
87 ^6
89 42

46 l

April
May
June

100 1
99 6
99 8

90 96
92 59
91 43

46 4

98.3
98.1
97.8

93 01
94.49
95.81

47.0

11.7

97.7
99.1
100.1

95.66
92.66
95.30

49.9

99.8
99.5
100.1

95.04
90.75
89.09

July
August
September
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March.
April
May
June

9£ 1
96 1

95 £

95 67
97 87
100 W

July
August
September

94 4

100 30

October . .
November
December
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September

9A

ft

98 11

QA
70.1
.L

-i fyi

07 c

~\rp. nf.

i nn q
i nn n

Ifft A

106 3
106 9
1OQ ?

110 4
111 6
112 4
3 -| -| c r\

-ir>c
U-^T rjA

15. Profits
(after taxes)
per dollar of
sales, all mfg.
corp/
(Cents)

im ?£
i HA Ap

58. Index of
wholesale
prices, mfd.
goods ®

*62. Index of
labor cost
per unit of
output, mfg.
(1957-59=100)

o 701

101 4
100 8
100 3

106 0
106 0
106 0

106 2
106 3
106 6

o 702

4.9

100 3
100.2
99.6

106 0
106.3
106.5

106 8
106.8
107.1

o 709

106 5
106 6
107 5

12.1

5.1

100.0
100.2
100.9

106.8
107.1
107.4

107.1
107.3
107.6

0.712

107.1
107.1
106.6

47.9

11.5

5.1

99.8
99.7
100.0

107.8
108.3
108.6

108.1
108.7
108.9

0.719

108.3
109.0
108.9

100 0

49 7

11 4

5 0

108 8
108 6
108 8

109 1
109 1
109 4

0 718

108 8
108 9
ino o

109 7
1O9 *5
i no.yo
±uy

o 722

50 o

11 9

11 2

5 0

5 1

99 *5
99 8
99 8
98 ^
Qrt

-i

Vo. J.

«n A
2-L.O

11 y

-L
5•1

1O9 7

110 0

in9 9
i in o

i in ^
i in ^

100 2

110 9
in 4

m
m

100 0

112 0

112 2

99 6
100 1

112 1
112 2
1 12 2

112 4
11^? g

9A 5
9ft ft
Qft
70. 7
f

99 9
ET>^».r£52 2

n*)! 6

rll ?

pll 0

5 0

(K*\
VJMAy

QI

•ni nn i

rj-t

55. Index of
wholesale
prices, indus.
commod.®

106 4
106 4
106 3

5 0

rlOO 1

94. /I
ic
95.4:>

Unit Labor Costs

68. Labor
cost (cur.
dol.) per unit
of gross prod.
(1958 dol.),
nonfin. corp.
(1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (Dollars)

99 1 A

3 QC

Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices

105 8
106 0
106 0

; <>

102 04
101 46
99 ?0

LAGGING INDICATORS

102 1
101 9
101 2

no

o;

»,n

*17. Ratio,
price to unit
labor cost
index, mfg.1

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS

11 O 1
6T*»*«^n1
197
U
<^.pj_ui. ^

104 2
1 OA A

-\r\c n
10A 7
105 5

106 3

109 1
109 7

109 6
109 9

111 4
110 n

O • TZ?
(3<-

m7
m /;

O 7A5

m

110 n

1 -| o o

q
7

vn 2

e

112 2

m

q

n? 7

u—5»nO 757

tr^>riiq i

11 q ^
J.J..5O
d-»^~.1 1 q c
|[^>pJLLj5 . ;)

•nl iq .nU
plljj

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by fii>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
[tb>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r n indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and"NA", not available.
Series that reached their high values prior to 1967 are as follows: Series 23, high value (123.5) reached in Mar. 1966;
Series 22, high value (13.9), in 1st quarter 1966; Series 15, high value (5.8), in 1st quarter 1966; Series 17, high value
(105.2), in July 1966. 2Average for August 5, 12, and 19. 3Average for August 20, 21, and 22.

74




AUGUST 1969

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q| MONEY AND CREDIT
LEADING INDICATORS

TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process

Credit Difficulties

Flows of Money and Credit

Year
and
month

98. Change in
money supply
and time
deposits

85. Change in
U.S. money
Supply

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

8

Revised

1967
January
February
March

33. Net change in
mortgage debt
held by fin. inst.
and life insurance companies
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

*113. Net change . 112. Change in 110. Total pribusiness loans1 vate borrowing
in consumer
installment
debt
(Ann. rate,

bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)

14. Current lia- 39. Delinquency
bilities of bus- rate, 30 days
ness failures® and over, total
installment loans

(Mil. dol.)

(Percent)

2

Revised

-0 72

-i-9 77
+12 42

+10 20
BT^>. T-LM-.;><.
+14 52
fL-"-^
+13 56

+10 56
+9 72

+10 69

April
May
June

+5 28
+13 68
+14.28

-4 80
+13 20
+11.04

+12 67
+16 . 97

+1 08
+2 28
+3 84

July
August
September

+14 16
+12.24
+8.04

+12 96
+8 04
+1.32

+17 75
+21 61
+21.20

+3 08
+4 78
+3 76

+16 09

October
November
December

+7.68
+7.68
+6.24

+7.32
46.00
+2.64

+19 . 82
+21.32
+20.33

+3.79
+4.69
+4.31

+5 36
+2.66
+8 39

January
February
March

+5 28
+4.92
+7.44

+6 60
+2.64
+5.28

+20 30
+19.27
+19 . 72

+L 79
+8 83
+7.46

+n L7
-2 39
+3 78

April
May
June

+3.84
+8.04
+6.36

+5.28
+12.96
+9.00

+19.07
+21.62
r+18.14

+7.69
+8.78
+8 59

July
August
September

+13 68
+13.92
+6.84

§r>- +13 44
+6.36
-3.72

+17 75
+18.28
+18.88

October
November
December
1969

+11.76
+12.84
+10.92

+5.64
+11.28
+7.44

+20.39
+21.68
ST^> +25.37

-2.76
-3.60
+0.60

+5.52
+1.80
+1 20

+4 20
-2 40
-0 36

+9 &A.

-0 60
+4 92

•n
'sA
P 7f OD

rvi-^
in
P+2./4.U

-4-15 31

+2 42
+1 42
+2 84

4-7 ("Mi
—0 55

60 804

+6 83

An #£/,

+8 09
-9 19
-2 15

1

A"2

119 ^?

_i_Q OC

+1 63

IDA 17
T T O y,c

103 82

~\ 9O

no 07
7J*J(

104 64

1 T2

72 re

AA OAA

108 90

i A«;

93 9A.

76,936

81 63
69 98

1 66

195 Zi.5

1 7A

68 612

1OA /.q
79 60
88 59

1 51

+19.57
+2.09
+5 78

69,144

80.11
91.41
74 66

+10 28
+11.21
+8.58

+14 02
-4 25
+4 55

85 172

|r*> +11.36
+10.01
+9.30

+10.70
+11.27
+14.10

Et^> r93 , 040

+20.90
+23 . 66
+20 09

+7.69
+9.58
+7 75

+17 10
+8 39
+5 35

r85 680

+21 96
r+19 40
p+22 61

+10 15

+16 16
+9 08
+7 25

•pxn nnn

1968

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September

. . .

f^JMA;
MA^

-4-Q

12

+9 5A

^JMA;
f»T* \

YVl 9

7^

p+<£. rA-

1.59
1 57

90 27
65 77
58 65

1*56

65 38

!!"!>• 1 A.7

!(!> 5£ 65

83 41

1 71

75 03

89 99
84 12
lift 7A
no £n
91 Q9

1 51

i An
(NA*J

T 1 O y *7
lIJC.4f

.-

October
November
December

.

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14, 39, 40, 43, 44r 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
[H>>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r ff indicates revised; "pn, preliminary; V, estimated; V, anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1
This series reached its high value (+21.11) in July 1966.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

BCU

AUGUST



1969

75

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q| MONEY AND CREDIT-Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process

93. Free^
reserves®

(Mil. dol.)

Outstanding Debt

Money Market lnterest Rates

Reserves

Year
and
month

LAGGING INDICATORS

114. Treasury 116. Corporate 115. Treasury 117. Municipal 66. Consumer
bill rate©
bond yields© bond yields© bond yields© installment
debt

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Mil. dol.)

*72. Commercial
and industrial
loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks
(Mil. dol.)

Interest Rates on Business
Loans and Mortgages

118. Mortgage
*67. Bank
rates on short- yields, resiterm business dential ©
loans, 35
cities©
(Percent)

(Percent)

1967
January
February
March

-16
-4
+236

4.76
4.55
4.29

5.53
5.35
5.55

4.40
4.47
4.45

3.54
3.52
3.55

76,191
76,309
76,546

60,936
61,138
61,592

6ii3

6.62
6.46
6.35

April
May
June

+175
+269
+297

3.85
3.64
3.48

5.59
5.90
6.06

4.51
4.76
4.86

3.60
3.89
3.96^

76,636
76,826
77,146

62,345
62,209
62,580

5.*95

6.29
6.44
6.51

July
August
September

+272
+298
+268

4.31
4.28
4.45

6.06
6.30
6.33

4.86
4.95
4.99

4.02
3.99
4.12

77,403
77,801
78,114

62,911
62,817
63,246

5.*95

6.53
6.60
6.63

October
November
December

+160
+270
+107

4.59
4.76
5.01

6.53
6.87
6.93

5.19
5.44
5.36

4.30
4.34
4.43

78,430
78,821
79,180

63,592
64,053
65,102

5^96

6.65
6.77
6.81

+144
+38
-315

5.08
4.97
5.14

6.57
6.57
6.80

5.18
5.16
5.39

4.29
4.31
4.54

79,579
80,315
80,937

65,363
65,734
66,063

6.*36

6.81
6.78
6.83

April
May
June

-413
-326
-341

5.36
5.62
5.54

6.79
7.00
7.02

5.28
5.40
5.23

4.34
4.54
4.50

81,578
82,310
83,026

67,446
67,306
67,702

6.84

6.94
(NA)
7.52

July
August
September

-226
-190
-132

5.38
5.10
5.20

6.91
6.54
6.69

5.09
5.04
5.09

4.33
4.21
4.38

83,883
84,817
85,532

68,178
68,695
69,225

6.89

7.42
7.35
7.28

October
November
December
1969
January
February
..
March

-167
-245
-310

5.33
5.49
5.92

6.88
7.00
7.28

5.24
5.36
5.66

4.49
4.60
4.82

86,479
87,313
88,088

70,264
71,536
72,346

6!6l

7.29
7.36
7.50

-480
-596
-701

6.18
6.16
6.08

7.29
7.33
7.76

5.74
5.86
6.05

4.85
4.98
5.26

88,729
89,527
90,173

73,410
74,698
74,674

7^32

(NA)
7.99
8.05

-844
g>-l,102
r-1,064

6.15
6.08
6.49

7.54
7.62
8.04

5.84
5.85
6.05

5.19
5.33
B> 5.76

90,933 _
76,659
91,779 fi>77,176
77,008
B>92,574

B> 7*86

8.06
8.06
8.35

p-1,095

B>7.00

|£>8.06

B>6.07

5.75

1968
January
February . .
March

,

April
May
June
July
August
September

(NA)

P76,687

E> 8.36

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by Bi>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,, 5,, 14,, 39,, 40,, 43,, 44,, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.

76




AUGUST 1969

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing

Q COMPOSITE INDEXES

Year
and
month

810. Twelve
leaders, reverse
trend adjusted1
(series 1,4, 6,
10, 12, 16, 17,
19,23,29,31,
113)

820. Five
coinciders,
estimated aggregate economic activity
(series 41, 43,
47, 52, 56)

830. Six
laggers (series
44, 61, 62, 67,
71, 72)

(1963=100)

(1963=100)

(1963=100)

Leading indicator subgroups
814. Capital
813. Marginal
employment ad- investment
commitments
justments
(series 1,4, 5) 2 (series 6, 10,
12, 29)
(1963=100)

(1963=100)

815. Inventory
investment and
purchasing
(series 23, 25,
31,37) 2
(1963=100)

816. Profitabil- 817. Sensitive
financial flows
ity (series 16,
(series 33, 85,
17, 19)2
112, 113)

(1963=100)

(1963=100)

1967
January
February
March...

124.2
123.1
123.3

141.2
340.9
141.5

150.0
149.5
149.7

103.8
100.2
99.1

103.1
103.3
103.4

103.2
101.6
100.7

113.8
113.6
113.8

95.8
97.1
97.9

April
May
June

123.6
124.0
126.1

141.4
141.3
142.3

149.8
149.6
150.3

98.2
98.1
99.8

104.5
105.5
107.9

99.5
100.2
100.2

114.3
114.4
113.8

95.5
98.4
99.8

July
August. .
September

126.6
128.7
128.6

143.1
144.5
143.7

150.6
150.4
151.4

98.7
100.6
101.2

107.4
109.3
108.9

99.9
100.3
99.5

114.5
114.7
115.0

100.3
98.7
97.6

October
November
December

129.9
131.4
133.8

143.2
146.8
149.0

152.0
152.9
154.8

100.6
101.0
101.3

109.8
110.1
112.5

100.9
102.0
104.2

115.6
115.6
116.5

99.7
100.0
99.3

1968
January
February
March

132.1
134.4
134.8

149.9
151.7
152.9

157.2
159.0
159.7

100.3
101.5
101.8

110.4
112.6
113.0

102.0
102.3
102.8

115.4
114.0
114.1

100.5
100.4
100.6

April
May
June

135.0
136.0
137.2

153.7
154.9
156.3

162.4
163.7
164.4

100.8
101.9
102.4

111.3
111.1
112.2

102.7
101.8
100.9

116.0
116.5
117.4

102.6
102.8
101.7

July
August
September

139.2
139.1
140.6

157.3
157.8
159.0

164.1
166.7
167.7

104.0
101.4
102.3

113.8
U4.9
116.1

100.1
101.6
100.1

117.4
115.8
116.7

104.3
101.5
r99.6

October
November
December

143.9
143.5
'144.7

160.2
162.1
163.0

168.6
170.8
173.7

101.8
101.0
100.5

118.8
117.6
119.1

102.2
102.0
102.9

117.8
118.7
rl!9.0

rl03.7
104.3
§p> rl04.5

January
February
March

r!44.5
rl47'.Q
r!45.8

164.3
166.0
167.0

176.4
179.1
181.6

100.9
100.0
100.5

119.0
119.9
117.9

102.0
104.5
104.4

rl!8.5
rl!9.2
rl!8.5

r!02.6
r!02.6
rlOO.3

April ...
May
June

B> 148.5
r!48.1
r!48.2

167.7
169.0
r!70.8

183.5
r!85.8
r!86.6

101.6
100.1
100.6

B>119.9
117.9
i-117.6

106.0
r!05.9
r!04.2

rl!8.5
rl!9.6
rl!7.7

rl04.2
101.6
P102.7

P147.6

g>pl?1.6

g>P186.8

plOO.2

PH7.2

p!06.3

pll6.5

1969

July
August
September
October
November
December

(NA)

. ..
. ...

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by [j£>>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 1 4 , 3 9 , 4 0 , 4 3 , 4 4 , 4 5 , and 93), current low values are indicated by
[H>>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*)are included in the 1966 N BE R "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and *NA", not available.
1
Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators.
2
Series that reached their high values prior to 1967 are as follows: Series 813, high value (107.9) reached in March 1966;
Series 815, high value (110.l) reached in March 1966; Series 816, high value (120.1) reached in February 1966.

KCII

 AUGUST 1969


77

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

AGGREGATE SERIES
Year

and

quarter

61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment

410. Manufacturers' sales,
total value

c. First
b. Second
anticipations as anticipations as
percent of actual percent of actual

a. Actual
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

412. Manufactur- 414. Condition
ers' inventories, of manufacturers'
total book value inventories: percent considered
high less percent
considered low
(Percent)

(Bil. dol.)

416. Adequacy 435. Index of
of mfrs.' capac- consumer
sentiment
ity: percent
considered inadequate less percent considered
(First quarter
excessive
(Percent)
1966=100)

1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

58.00
60.10
61.25
62.80

98.6
99.2
100.6
99.7

97.8
98.0
100.7
101.2

131.2
134.0
135.3
137.5

70.0
72.7
75.5
78.1

11
14
19
26

47
45
46
42

100.0
95.7
91.2
88.3

61.65
61.50
60.90
62.70

101.5
100.1
102.6
99.0

102.9
101.2
103.1
99.9

135.0
135.6
137.4
140.7

80.1
81.1
81.7
82.8

30
29
23
22

40
40
41
38

92.2
94.9
96.5
92.9

64.75
62.60
63.20
65.90

100.1
103.2
102.7
102.0

100.5
102.7
104.5

145.2
349.5
152.7
156.6

83.8
85.6
87.1
88.6

22
22
21
16

35
35
40
42

95.0
92.4
92.9
92.1

68.90
a72.00
a73.45
a74.00

104.0
(NA)

103.3
(NA)

159.2
al6l.2
al65.3

90.3
a92.8
a95.1

18
(NA)

43
(NA)

95.1
91.6

1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

98.9

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
Year
and
quarter

420. Family income of households compared to a year ago, households reporting--

425. Mean probability of substantial
changes in family income of households

430.
a. Actual

a. No change b. Higher
income
in income
(Percent)

(Percent)

c. Lower
income
(Percent)

a. Increase
in income

(Percent)

b. Increase c. Decrease (quarterly)
less decrease in income
(Percent)

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
mil, cars)

Household purchases of new cars
2-quarter moving average
b. Actual
(Ann. rate,
mil, cars)

c. Anticipated
(Ann. rate,
mil, cars)

d. Anticipated
as percent of
actual
(Percent)

7.4
7.6
7.6

96
92
92

7.8
7.6
7.9
8.3

99
92

1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

52.4
55.2
53.9
54.2

35.4
32.9
34.2
33.3

11.2
11.0
11.0
11.6

52.3
47.5
48.1
51.2

36.0
40.9
40.3
38.0

11.1
10.9
11.0
10.1

16.0
15.8
17.4
16.2

10.1
9.9
11.2
10.2

52.9
53.0
50.8

36.4
35.9
37.3

10.0
10.5
10.8

19.3
18.3
18.4
16.7
16.5
18.1
18.6

7.3
7.5
6.8
6.8

7.4
7.4
7.1
6.8

5.9
5.9
6.2
6.0

7.4
7.9
8.7
7.8

7.1
7.7
8.3
8.3

13.8
12.5
11.9
11.2

5.5
5.8
6.5
5.5

8.1
8.4

7.9
8.3

11.3
12.0
13.0

5.2
6.1
5.6

1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

78




AUGUST

1969

ItCII

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

DIFFUSION INDEXES
Year
and
quarter

D440. New orders, manufacturing1
Actual

D442. Net profits, manufacturing
and trade1

D446. Number of employees,1
manufacturing and trade
Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

D444. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade1

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

88
88
84
82

86
88
88
84

82
82
78
76

84
86
84
82

88
88
85
82

90
90
86

65
66
63
62

62
63
63
62

71
72
69
72

82
82
80
81

65
65
64
69

75
74
76
76

71
70
72
74

80
82
82
82

58
58
58
58

60
60
60
60

78
78
79
80

80
83
82
81

70
73
72
74

74
80
78
73

79
82
82
84

82
86
86
84

57
60
58
60

60
60
58
60

81
(NA)

82
85
83

70
(NA)

78
79
77

80
(NA)

59
(NA)

60
60
60

1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

88
86

DIFFUSION INDEXES--Con.
D450, Level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade1

Year
and
quarter

Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

74
74
73
74

66
68
69
69

68
66
65
64

Selling prices
D460. Manufacturing
and tradei
Actual
Anticipated

D462. Manufacturing1
Actual

D464. Wholesale trade1

D466. Retail trade1

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Actual
(4-Q span)

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

74
74
80
78

66
69
74
70

70
72
78
76

65
68
72
68

78
76
82
78

68
72
76
72

78
78
84
80

63
70
76
75

65
66
63
62

72
72
76
78

75
72
70
72

70
70
72
73

74
72
68
70

74
74
80
82

76
73
69
74

74
80
84
87

76
76
72
78

68
70
70

63
66
67
66

78
80
81
84

76
79
78
78

74
76
78
80

74
76
75
76

81
82
82
85

78
82
78
78

88
88
88
92

81
84
86
87

71
(NA)

66
68
66

84
(NA)

78
80
80

82
(NA)

75
79
78

85
(NA)

79
80
80

91
(NA)

84
84
84

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

1968
First quarter...
Second quarter,
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a*, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.

BUI


AUGUST 1969


79

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

Q DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.

Year
and
quarter

D61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
all industries
a. Actual
expenditures
(1-Q span)

a. Actual
carloadings

c. First
anticipations

b. Second
anticipations
(1-Q span)

D480. Freight carloadings ®

(1-Q span)

480. Change in
freight carloadings®

b. Anticipations

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(Thous.of cars-4-Q span)

1966

First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter

83.3
83.3
55.6
75.0

62.5
71.9
37.5
65.6

71.9
71.9
75.0

73.7
73.7
57.9
52.6

73.7
89.5
84.2
78.9

+28
4-18
+21
+1

55.6
30.6
33.3
61.1

50.0
41.7
44.4
50.0

53.1
52.8
58.3
44.4

42.1
31.6
10.5
42.1

78.9
52.6
78.9
73.7

-51
-88
-130
-88

66.7
38.9
55.6
55.6

63.9
55.6
69.4
83.3

63.9
47.2
80.6
55.6

31.6
68.4
68.4
(NA)

73.7
63.2
73.7
68.4

-16
+29
+52
-9

83.3
(NA)

83.3
75.0

72.2
50.0
69.4

78.9
89.5
84.2

-9
-10
p-124

56.2

1967

First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968

First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter. • • . • .
Fourth quarter
1969

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

80




AUGUST

1969

BCII

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Q| FOREIGN TRADE
500. Merchandise trade
balance (series 502 minus
series 512)

Year
and
month

(Mil. dol.)
1967
January
February
March

April
May
June

502. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

+322
+366
+359

2,639
2,582

_|J,"IO

2 608
2,549
2 582

+A.32

+398

2,524

July
August
September

+421
+399

2 601
2^566
2,597

October
November
December

+l6l
4-275
+L84

2,415
2,671
2,677

i qcn

1968
January.
February . . . .
March

April
May
June

October
November
December

512. General imports, total

(1957-59-100)

(Mil. dol.)

235
196
252

2,317
2,216
2,166

793

215
220
218

2,198
2,118
2,184

1,005
961
Q07

OT Q

A#7

pqn
<?U

op;,
apn
#71
oy
J.
QOq

i ipft

2 ftIA
2 77*5

QOQ
1 007

-1 ^O

2 A. 39

1 314

O-L

2 ,-L4P
-1 Qrt
2 ,-L70

OCC>

p pry,

<Oo
O<>).

O/f
ore
^5P

on c
<S±p
260
pep

2,855

917

2LL

-i 5

2,740
2,870

1 047

989

2?7
223

2,858
2,950
3,211

Q1L.

246

988

2/L*!

qq
+-L-3-3
i nr\

+9AD
_~I05
+#Q

+70

2,631
2,972
2,977

Qpq

2,245

pqn

+251

-4-1

. .

508. Index of export orders,
nonelectrical machinery

920
855
904

+184

+7#

July
August
September

506. Manufacturers' new
orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicles and parts

pc;A

T J C

p OQ£
p

/.QQ

2,687
2,592
2,588
/r\t
2 ,504

2,755

2 , r7QO
( 7*
2 ,*7OC
W
2rti7O
,or<i
QCT
2

,v:>-L

1 268

p/,y.

925

pop
<.J4.

1 082

<57

o VUo
on&
<i,

2 m ft

poo

2 ,rroZ
OO
rtrto
2 ,00j

1969

January
February
March

+75

-359
+215

2,093
2,297
3,196

834

242

1,391
1,118

260
222
248

April
May
June

+178
+16
+25

3,355
3,292
3,213

1,110
rl,222
pl,329

Juiv
August
September

+inA

3,172

CNA')

r254
p285
(Nb}
\NAJ

p Ace
2
Q£>-1

q -177
^,J-f (
3P
7^.
,<i^O
3 Iftft

3,066

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

ItCII


AUGUST 1969


81

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Year
and
quarter

250. Balance on goods and
services, excluding military
grants

U.S. balance of payments
520. Liquidity balance
basis

522. Official settlements
basis

(Mil. dol.)

Net capital movements plus unilateral transfers
and errors and omissions
525. 1Liquidity balance
basis

(Mil. dol.)

527. Official
settlements
basis2

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil, dol.)

1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

-600
-24
-426
-307

-344
-110
+481
+239

1,558
1,398
1,100
1,223

-2,158
-1,422
-1,526
-1,530

-1,902
-1,508
-619

-495
-330
-1,031
-1,633

-1,711
-719
-71
-917

1,361
1,451
1,404
961

-1,856
-1,781
-2,435
-2,649

-3,072
-2,170
-1,475
-1,878

-564
-51
-162
+870

-379
+1,553
+97
+368

471
841
909
301

-1,035
-892
-1,071
+569

-850
+712
-812
+67

P365
(NA)

P-2069
(NA)

(NA)

-984

1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

x-1,699
p-3,792

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter

530. Liquid
liabilities to
to all
foreigners3®

534. U.S.
532. Liquid
official
and certain
nonliquid lia- reserve
bilities to
assets4 @
foreign official
agencies3®
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)

Goods and services movements, excluding transfers under military grants
Income on investment, military
Goods and services
Merchandise, adjusted *
transactions, other serv., total
252. Exports

253. Imports

536. Exports

537. Imports

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

540. Exports
(Mil. dol.)

541. Imports
(Mil. dol.)

1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

28,738
28,819
29,432
29,779

16,004
16,305
15,797
16,043

15,026
14,958
14,876
14,882

10,562
10,667
10,936
11,196

9,004
9,269
9,836
9,973

7,218
7,194
7,413
7,564

6,027
6,165
6,595
6,676

3,344
3,473
3,523
3,632

2,977
3,104
3,241
3,297

28,990
29,620
31,211
33,119

16,295
17,424
17,819
19,402

13,855
14,274
14,649
14,830

11,461
11,484
11,577
11,667

10,100
10,033
10,173
10,706

7,688
7,723
7,669
7,601

6,660
6,465
6,542
7,154

3,773
3,761
3,908
4,066

3,440
3,568
3,631
3,552

32,482
32,574
33,576
33,692

18,407
16,994
17,493
18,576

13,926
14,063
14,634
15,710

11,934
12,668
13,344
12,653

11,463
11,827
12,435
12,352

7,941
8,395
8,879
8,383

7,817
8,131
8,566
8,458

3,993
4,273
4,465
4,270

3,646
3,696
3,869
3,894

P35,056
(NA)

Pl6,913
(NA)

Pl5,758
(NA)

pll,890
(NA)

P11525
(NA)

7,474
P9,590

7,577
P9,619

P4,416
(NA)

P3,948
(NA)

1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®, Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
M
e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available;
2
3
^•Series 520 minus series 250.
Series 522 minus series 250.
Amount outstanding at the end of quarter.
^Reserve
5
position at the end of quarter.
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of
Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports).

82




AUGUST 1969

ItCII

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Income on investment, military transactions and other services (components of series 540 and 541)

Year
and
quarter

Income on investments

Travel

542. U.S. invest- 543. Foreign
ments abroad
investments in
the U.S.
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)

Transportation and other services

Military transactions

544. Receipts
546. Sales under 547. Military
545. Payments
from foreign trav- by U.S. travelers military conexpenditures
tracts
elers in the U.S. abroad
abroad
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)

548. Receipts
from

(Mil. dol.)

549. Payments
for

(MiI. dol.)

1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1,482
1,557
1,573
1,640

479
503
569
591

379
389
411
411

644
676
666
671

198
219
202
210

877
925
975
987

1,285
1,308
1,337
1,371

977
1,000
1,031
1,048

1,612
1,580
1,801
1,879

584
591
580
607

416
391
416
423

701
841
9U
739

333
335
239
332

1,085
1,075
1,106
1,112

1,412
1,455
1,452
1,432

1,070
3,061
1,031
1,094

1,771
1,973
2,040
1,917

671
742
770
749

440
424
450
456

763
732
792
735

305
353
406
364

1,102
1,116
1,U3
1,169

1,477
1,523
1,569
1,533

1,110
1,106
1,164
1,241

P2075
(NA)

p894
(NA)

P508
(NA)

P791
(NA)

P416
(NA)

pl,198
(NA)

Pl,417
(NA)

pl,065
(NA)

1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Capital movements plus Government nonmilitary unilateral transfers

Year
and
quarter

Direct investments
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
(Mil. dol.)

Securities investments

561. U.S. investments
abroad
(Mil. dol.)

564. Foreign purchases 565. U.S. purchases
of U.S. securities
of foreign securities
(Mil. dol.)
(Mi I. dol.)

570. Government
grants and capital
transactions, net
(Mil. dol.)

575. Banking and
other capital transactions, net
(Mil. dol.)

1966
First quarter...
Second quarter •
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..

52
38
-113
110

728
934
917
1,060

173
520
107
109

322
80
87
-7

-1,063
-1,054
-789
-825

118
446
325
378

64
70

12
102

717
533
947
956

133
329
520
34

223
266
476
301

-1,121
-955
-961
-1,174

462
467
-329
-199

251
5
23
41

472
1,009
1,262
283

839
1,116
1,115
1,290

3H
164
337
455

-977
-359
-788
-366

230
245
96
577

p213
(NA)

P776
(NA)

1,372
P310

P325
(NA)

P-874
(NA)

P-94
(NA)

1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..

1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p" preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

ItCII


AUGUST 1969


83

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Qj FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and expenditures
Year
and
month

601. Federal
600. Federal
surplus (+) or receipts, nadeficit (-) , na-tional income
and product
tional income
accounts
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
nil. don

Defense indicators

602. Federal
264. National
expenditures,
defense purnational income chases
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

616. Defense
Department
obligations,
total, excluding
military
assistance

621. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement

647. New or648. New orders, defense ders, defense
products indus- products
tries

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

625. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
and institutions

(Bil.dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

1967
January
February
March

-12.0

147.5

159.5

69.9

6,518
6,595
6,343

2,296
2,140
1,903

3.01
3.32
3.07

3,364
3,930
3,034

April
May
June

-13.2

148.3

I6l!4

71.9

6,211
7,732
6,891

1,754
2,480
2,290

3.17
4.04
3.93

3,026
4,040
3,566

July
August
September

-13 !i

152 !s

165 !3

73.*6

5,928
7,003
7,479

1,633
1,925
2,958

3.60
2.99
3.36

3,545
3,690
3,720

October
November
December

-12^3

156 [4

168!8

74!6

7,449
6,565
6,331

2,735
2,173
1,846

3.98
3.64
4.36

3,626
3,308
3,479

-e!i

165.'?

174!l

76!l

7,033
7,615
6,208

2,360
2,865
1,985

3.51
3.86
5.0?

l.*60
1.31

2,887
3,445
3,124

April
May
June

-9^5

170.8

180.3

7?!9

6,765
7,441
6,929

2,161
2,299
2,077

4.43
4.01
2.96

1.47
2.27
2.06

3,488
4,203
3,06?

July
August
September

-2.B

181 [4

184!2

78!8

7,544
7,659
7,989

2,323
2,804
3,234

3.67
3.91
3.55

1.91
2.36
1.92

3,937
3,173
3,836

-6!i

IB?! 3

187^4

79!i

7,520
7,286
6,603

2,298
2,520
1,959

4.41
3.89
4.20

2.38
1.95
2.31

3,903
3,378
3,821

r+9*.6

198 !l

rl88!5

79!6

7,852
7,216
6,303

2,307
2,207
1,542

4.02
4.39
3.81

1.84
2.31
2.15

3,468
3,658
2,777

pH2!$

p20l!9

rl8$>!3

r?8i5

6,340
6,279
(NA)

1,442
1,304
(NA)

4.02
3.81
r2.87

2.08
1.79
rl.27

2,639
2,673
2,618

P4.10

P2.39

(NA)

1968
January
February
March

. .

. .

October
November
December

1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September .

....

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.

84




AUGUST 1969

ltd*

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Qj PRICE MOVEMENTS

Consumer price indexes

Year
and
month

781. All items© 782. Food

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

783. Commodities less foods

Wholesale price indexes
784. Services© 750. All commod- 58. Manufac- 751. Processed
ities®
tured goods® foods and
feeds

752. Farm products

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

1967
January
February
March

114.7
114.8
115.0

114.9
114.3
114.5

107.4
107.8
108.0

125.5
125.9
126.3

106.2
106.0
105.7

106.4
106.4
106.3

112.2
111.5
111.2

102.5
100.5
99.3

April
May
June

115.3
115.6
116.0

114.0
114.4
115.1

108.4
108.7
108.9

126.6
127.0
127,4

105.3
105.8
106.3

106.2
106.3
106.6

111.0
111.6
112.3

97.2
100.1
102.7

July
August
September

116.5
116.9
117.1

115.2
115.8
115.6

109.2
109.6
110.1

127.7
128.2
128.7

106.5
106.1
106.2

106.8
106.8
107.1

112.0
111.9
111.9

101.1
99.1
98.0

October
November
December
1968
January .
February
March

117.5
117.8
118.2

115.7
116.1
116.6

110.4
110.7
110.9

129.1
129.6
130.1

106.1
106.2
106.8

107.1
107.3
107.6

111.7
111.5
111.7

98.3
97.6
99.7

118.6
119.0
119.5

117.2
117.5
118.2

111.3
111.7
112.1

130.8
131.3
132.1

107.2
108.0
108.2

108.1
108.7
108.9

112.1
113.1
113.6

99.3
100.8
101.8

April
May
June

119.9

120.3
120.9

118.7
119.3
119.1

112.2
112.5
113.0

132.5
133.0
133.9

108.3
108.5
108.7

109.1
109.1
109.4

114.1
114.4
113.9

101.7
102.8
102.6

July
August
September

121.5
121.9
122.2

119.2
119.5
120.0

113.3
113.7
114.0

134.9
135.5
136.0

109.1
108.7
109.1

109.7
109.5
109.9

114.6
114.6
114.5

102.1
101.2
102.7

October
November
December
1969
January
February
March

122.9
123.4
123.7

120.8
121.0
121.6

114.4
114.8
115.0

136.6
137.4
138.1

109.1
109.6
109.8

110.0
110.3
110.5

114.5
115.3
114.9

102.7
104.7
103.9

124.1
124.6
125.6

122.2
122.0
122.8

115.1
115.9
117.0

139.0
139.7
140.9

110.7
111.1
111.7

111.3
111.7
112.2

115.7
116.1
117.1

105.3
104.5
106.2

April
May
June

126.4
126.8
127.6

123.6
124.2
125.5

117.2
117.5
118.0

142.0
142.7
143.3

111.9
112.8
113.2

112.4
112.8
113.2

118.6
120.2
120.7

105.1
109.6
111.3

July
August
September

128.2

125.8

118.2

144.0

113.3
P113.2

113.5
P113.5

120.7

108.5

. .

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

 AUGUST 1969


85

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

Qj ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP
Year
and
quarter

206. Potential level1

205. Actual value

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1966
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1967
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter

207. Gap (potential less actual)

Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

649.1
655.0
660.2
668.1

637.6
643.9
650.2
656.6

-H.5
-ll.l
-10.0
-11.5

666.5
670.5
678.0
683.5

669.6
676.2
682.9

663.1

-3.4
-0.9
-1.8
-0.6

693.3
705.8
712.8
718.5

689.6
696.4
703.3
710.2

-3.7
-9.4
-9.5
-8.3

723.1
r726.7

717.2
724.3

r-2.4

-5.9

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Based on a trend line of 3-1/2 percent per year through middle of 1955 from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3-3/4 percent from 4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, and 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to date.

86




AUGUST 1969

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

Q| ANALYTICAL RATIOS
850. Ratio,
851. Ratio,
output to ca- inventories
pacity, manu- to sales, manfacturing
ufacturing
and trade

Year
and
month

(Percent)

(Ratio)

852. Ratio,
unfilled orders to shipments, manufacturers'
durable goods

853. Ratio,
production of
business
equipment to
consumer
goods

(Ratio)

(1957-59=100)

854. Ratio,
personal saving to disposable personal
income

(Ratio)

855. Ratio,
nonagricult ural job openings unfilled
to persons
unemployed

(Ratio)

858. Output
per man-hour,
total private
nonfarm

mfg.

859. Real
spendable avg.
wkly. earnings,
nonagri.prod.
or nonsupv.
workers

(1957-59=100) (1957-59 dol.) (1957-59 dol.)
Revised1

1967

856. Real
avg. hourly
earnings,
prod, workers,

C1)

857. Vacancy
rate in total
rental nous'ing©

(Percent)

Revised1

January
February
March

87 .'i

1.57
1.59
1.59

3.51
3.50
3.46

126.0
127.6
125.6

0.075

0.138
0.133
0.127

128.3

2.A1
2.42
2.43

78.52
77.91
77.89

6.6

April
May
June

85.0

1.59
1.59
1.57

3.53
3.50
3.48

124.3
124.6
123.3

0.070

0.121
0.118
0.117

129!6

2.42
2.42
2.43

77.72
77.79
77.84

6.3

July
August
September

84.*3

1.59
1.57
1.57

3.54
3.40
3.48

123.1
121.7
122.3

0.074

0.117
0.120
0.115

13o!6

2.43
2M
2.43

78.11
78.23
78.36

6.1

October . .
November .
December

ai!-d

1.59
1.57
1.56

3.54
3.44
3-39

119.4
122.2
119.9

0.077

0.109
0.118
0.119

131! i

2.43
2.A4
2.45

77.94
78.49
78.16

5*.6

p84!<?

1.55
1.54
1.54

3.37
3.36
3.39

121.2
119.6
118.3

0.069

0.128
0.124
0.129

132^6

2.47
2.46
2.48

78.17
78.71
78.57

5^5

pBk.B

1.55
1.54
1.52

3.41
3.36
3.28

117.9
118.0
117.5

0.072

0.137
0.140
0.132

134^1

2.47
2.48
2.48

78.29
78.55
78.63

5.*7

p84!o

1.52
1.54
1.52

3.17
3.38
3.24

117.3
116.3
117.7

0.056

0.129
0.132
0.132

134^4

2.48
r2.49
r2..49

78.39
78.52
78.94

5*.4

p84*.2

1.53
1.53
1.56

3.19
3.22
3.38

117.0
120.1
119.4

0.063

0.134
0.140
0.143

135^8

r2.49
2.50
r2.51

78.64
78.31
78.66

4*.9

January
February
March

pBk.5

1.54
1.53
1.54

3.22
3.18
3.21

118.9
118.7
118.5

rO.053

0.141
0.143
0.134

135^6

2.51
2.50
2.49

78.52
78.05
78.31

5*.0

April
May
June

pSk'.6

1.54
1.54
pl.53

3.24
3.26
3.17

r 120.0
r!21.2
rl21.5

rO.054

0.133
0.138
0.139

p!34!6

2.48
2.48
2.48

78.20
78.25
78.05

5.*i

(NA)

CHA)

p!21.8

P2.49

P77.82

1968

January
February
March
April .

May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

.

..

1969

July
August
September

pO.124

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1

See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

IICII


AUGUST 1969


87

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

Q DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators

Year
and
month

Dl. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing (21 industries)

1-month span

9-month span

D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (35 industries)

1-month span

9-month span

Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB (17 industries)

1-quarter span

C1)

1967

January
February
March

69.0

7.1
81.0

3-quarter span

0)

11.9
9.5
9.5

40.0
54.3
32.9

34.3
34.3
38.6

47

53

48.6
54.3
64.3

65.7
61.4
65.7

53

41

April
May
June

40.5
28.6
64.3

16.7
38.1
31.0

July
August
September

71.4
59.5
76.2

76.2
61.9
40.5

40.0
72.9
42.9

74.3
91.4
70.0

53

59

October .
. .
November . . . .
December

28.6
71.4
45.2

81.0
69.0
14.3

60.0
54.3
74.3

71.4
71.4
68.6

41

41

January
February
March . .

14.3
90.5
21.4

57.1
64.3
64.3

51.4
55-7
50.0

57.1
71.4
68.6

47

53

April
May
June

11.9
90.5
73.8

33.3
85.7
88.1

40.0
54.3
51.4

68.6
68.6
80,0

r65

59

July
August
September

35.7
38.1
88.1

35.7
47.6
76.2

51.4
A4.3
78.6

71.4
88,6
82.9

r71

r62

October
November
December

40.5
23.8
47.6

28.6
42.9
42.9

60.0
44.3
55.7

88.6
77.1
85.7

r47

76

47.6
31.0
95.2

P42.9
(NA)

57.1
62.9
40.0

82.9
r68.6
P51.4

r53

p65

1968

1969

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September

2
2

42.9
r42.9
r59.5

2

p52.4

54.3
45.7
40.0

P53

P51.4

October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.

^•See
"New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill.
2
Based on revised data. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," July 1969 issue.




AUGUST 1969

ItCII

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

Qj DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators-Con.
D34. Profits,
manufacturing,
FNCB (about 1,000
corporations)

Year
and
month

D19. Index of stock prices, 5001common D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
stocks (77 industries) ©

1 -quarter span
1967
January.. . .
February
March

43

.

9-month span

D5. Initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, week
including the 12th (47 areas)

1 -month span

9-month span

1 -month span

9-month span

1 -month span

90.9
92.2
61.0

85.7
90.3
97.4

46.2
53.8
23.1

0.0
15.4
26.9

55.3
17.0
46.8

27.7
8.5
8.5

April
May
June

46

76.0
74.0
51.3

93.4
92.1
86.2

23.1
61.5
69.2

30.8
23.1
23.1

55.3
54.3
55.3

31.9
44.7
29.8

July
August
September

52

81.6
77.6
57.2

68.4
65.8
71.1

30.8
53.3
19.2

23.1
30.8
46.2

34.0
72.3
60.6

78.7
78.7
66.0

October
November
December
1968
January
February
March

59

32.2
7.9
71.1

52.6
46.1
50.0

46.2
46.2
61.5

33.5
30.8
30.8

38.3
74.5
46.8

80.9
70.2
78.7

55

64.5
10.5
21.1

61.8
63.2
71.1

46.2
46.2
53.8

30.8
&.946.2

25.5
80.9
25.5

57.4
51.1
61.7

April
May
June

45

94.7
83.6
80.3"

76.3
82.7
85.3

46.2
53.8
50.0

53.8
61.5
73*1

63.8
51.1
53.2

38.3
51.1
74.5

July
August
September

56

48.7
17.8
86.7

93.3
97.3
81.3

46.2
65.4
57.7

76.9
57*7
76.9

57.4
40.4
63.8

36.2
66.0
76.6

October
November
December
1969
January .
February
March

53

82.7
77.3
72.7

71.3
52.0
56.0

69.2
69*?
38.5

92.3
92.3
84.6

66.0
31.9
61.7

63.8
78.7
59.6

53

12.0
43.3
13.3

73.3
40.0
14.7

53.3
61.5
46.2

84.6
80.8
76.9

72.3
38.3
55.3

70.2
46.8
40.4

52

54.0
74.7
1.3

69.2

48.9
57.4
23.4

.

.

April
May
June
July
August
September

4.0

65.4
57.7
76.9
3

61.5
76.9

8

51.1

October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on
the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r indicates revised; V, preliminary; and
*NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®.
1
Based on 77 components through June 1967; on 76 components, July 1967 through August 1968; and on 75 components thereafter.
2
Average for August 5, 12, and 19.

 AUGUST 1969


89

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

Qj DIFFUSION INDEXES: Roughly Coincident Indicators

Year
and
month

D41. Number of employees on
nonagri cultural payrolls
(30 industries)

1 -month span

6-month span

D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)

1 -month span

6-month span

D58. Index of wholesale prices
(22 manufacturing industries)®

1 -month span

D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)

6-month span

1-month span

9-month span

1967
January •.
February
March

66.7
35.0
V).o

50.o
43.3
41.7

29.2
20.8
43.8

45.8
29.2
27.1

77.3
72.7
56.8

63.6
68.2
65.9

87.0
39.1
43.5

69.6
91.3
95.7

April
May
June

40.0
36.7
65.0

36.7
40.0
40.0

52.1
16.7
50.0

29.2
41.7
41.7

47.7
54.5
47.7

63.6
63.6
63.6

60.9
34.8
82.6

87.0
91.3
56.5

July
August
September

41.7
66.7
46.7

51.7
76.7
66.7

47.9
75.0
41.7

54.2
66.7
75.0

63.6
63.6
75.0

72.7
81.8
81.8

43.5
60.9
76.1

82.6
78.3
82.6

October
... .
November
December
1968
January
February
March

65.0
93.3
73.3

68.3
83.3
85.0

56.2
87.5
83.3

75.0
77.1
83.3

72.7
77.3
90.9

81.8
90.9
95.5

37.0
67.4
47.8

95.7
95.7
73.9

63.3
75.0
65.0

96.7
86.7
86.7

37.5
70.8
75.0

77.1
83.3
75.0

90.9
84.1
68.2

90.9
95.5
90.9

73.9
65.2
82.6

82.6
91.3
91.3

April
May
June

66.7
66.7
85.0

86.7
85.0
76.7

41.7
70.8
79.2

83.3
70.8
79,2

72.7
63.6
61.4

75.0
84.1
81.8

26.1
60.9
65.2

87.0
91.3
87.0

July
August
September. . . .

63.3
81.7
58.3

78.3
81.7
75.0

58.3
64.6
66.7

75.0
75.0
70.8

68.2
70.5
72.7

84.1
81.8
86.4

63.0
58.7
34.8

78*3
47,8
78.3

October
November
December
1969
January
February
March

71.7
80.0
73.3

81.7
80.0
80.0

68.8
75.0
64.6

66.7
70.8
79.2

79.5
79.5
61.4

81.8
81.8
90.9

52.2
543
21.7

82.6
65.2
65.2

90.0
70.0
70.0

83.3
r75.0
r75.0

54.2
62.5
91.7

81.2
83.3
r72.9

68.2
72.7
75.0

81.8
79.5
84.1

73.9
60.9
21.7

73.9
r82.6
p87*0

April
May
June

41.7
61.7
r73.3

P76.7

r45.8
r62.5
r72.9

P77.1

84.1
79.5
84.1

90.9

73.9
r41.3
r52.2

July
August
September

P71.7

October
November
December

p68.8

P77.3

p65.2

....
. .

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on the
4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table E4
identifies the components for the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by (u).

90




AUGUST 1969

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change
1968

1969

Diffusion index components
December

January

March

February

Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING1
(Average weekly hours)
All manufacturing industries

o

Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products*
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries

+
o
+
+
o

40.6
(48)

41.3
41.2
40.4
42.0
41.5
41.6

40.1
40.0
40.7
41.9
41.7
41.9

+
+
+

42.3
40.2
41.6
40.6
38.8

+
+

+
+
+
+

40.9
36.3
41.4
36.2
43.3

+

o
+
-

38.4
42.0
42.4
41.3
37.6

-

o

Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products

40.8
(48)

+
+

o
o

+
-

40.1

+

(95)

(3D

+
0

40.7
(43)

0

r40.6
r40.3
r40.9
r42.1
41.7
r41.6
r42.6
r40.6
41.1
r40.8
39.1

+
-

40.3
40.8
40.2
42.1
41.6
41.2

+
+
+
+
+
+

40.7
40.9
40.8
42.3
41.9
41.8

40.9
40.2
40.9
42.0
41.8
41.8

42.4 40.4
41.4 +
40.7
39.1

42.3
39.8
41.5
39.7
37.7

+
+
+
+
+

42.8
40.7
41.6
40.8
39.0

42.6
40.9
41.5
40.8
39.5

40.7
36.9
40.8
36.2
43.3

o
+

+
+
+
+

40.9
36.4
41.2
35.9
43.3

40.9
36.4
41.1
36.0
43.4

+

-

40.7
38.3
40.1
35.2
42.5

+
-

r40.8
r38.1
41.0
r36.1
43.0

38.2
41.9
41.8
41.4
37.4

+
-

37.9
41.7
42.5
40.7
35.5

+
+
+
+
+

38.3
41.8
43.1
41.4
37.6

38.3
41.6
42.9
41.4
37.7

+
+
+
o
-

38.4
r41.8
r43.0
41.4
r37.6

+
+
+

JulyP

2

40.8

40.9

June

May

April

+
o
-

o

40.7
(60)

0

+

+
+
o
o
+
+
+

r41.0
r40.2
40.8
41.9
41.8
41.8
r42.6
r40.6
r41.6
r40.9
r39.2

+
+
+
o
+
+
-

r40.6
39.6
41.2
r36.2
r42.9
38.4
r41.9
r42.3
41.5
r37.3

40.7
(52)

o

41.1
40.2
40.8
41.8
41.5
41.8

+
+
+
+

42.4
40.8
41.8
41.0
39.5

+
+
+

40.7
38.8
41.4
35.9
43.2

o
+
-

38.4
41.7
42.7
41.0
37.1

0
0

D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries
Primary metals
Blast furnaces steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals.
Fabricated metal products
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Steam engines and turbines*.
Internal combustion engines*
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling*.
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment*
Machine shops.
Special industry machinery*
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery*

+ 29,380

+ 29,684

+ 30,482

(56)

(57)

(63)

• +
+

4,345
1,941 +
+
+
+

4,675
2,124
...

3,195

3,755

+

+
+

5,210

V*
697
312

0

+
+
+
+

4,666
2,071 +

4,614
2,110

:+> «*
+
™

696 +
340
..•+

+
+
+

...

+
+

417
860
339

J}
+
+

...

4,806
2,307

- 29,998 -r29,171 + 30,779
(46)
(40)
(51)
-

+
.• • +
3,158

3,119

+
+
(NA)

3,157

+

5,538

5,650

*77

!} 585

676
350

+
+

685
429

;}
+
+
+

+
511

...

...

+

+
+

+
+
+
+

4,772
r4,825
5,107
2,246 + 2,308 + (NA)

+

+

+
472

485
...

+

2,980

5,626

"}

(54)

+
*™
2,841

5,350

+ 30,944

(40)

+
+

!}

- 29,697

504

439

+

+
+
+

5,579

5,627

415

!} 500

...
735
361

716
303

+
+
501 +

...
561

(NA)

!}

(NA)

+

(NA)
(NA)

0

' +

(NA)

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. *Denotes machinery
and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
1

Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency.

2

Last four months of data for series components are not comparable with earlier data. See "New Features and Changes for
This Issue," page iii, July 1969 issue.

ItCII AUGUST

1969




91

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1968

1969

Diffusion index components
December

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1 -Continued
(Millions of dollars)

3,581

3,656

Electrical machinery
Electrical transmission distr. equipment*
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment!

:}
+
+

710 l)
1,049 -

+
7,578

Transportation equipment
Motor vehicles and parts total

+
+

Aircraft partsl"
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment

627

1,020
...

3,746

3,767

;}+ ^7

;}

+ 1,036
+

-

+
... +

:} w

3,710

1}
+

3,664

692 ;}
-t-

1,003 +

1,165

+

...

+

7,695
...

+

7,842

7,487

723

4-

3,928

7,107

...

961

+

4-

711 !}

(NA)

+
+
800 +

(NA)

.

7,228

Furniture total
Stone clay and glass total
Other durable goods total

+

...

+
+
+
+

+

+

... -

+

+

+

+
+

... +

+
+

+

+

...

...

0

+

+

4-

P7,06l

r6,341

+

+

+

(NA)

+
...

+

+

104.62 -

99.14 -

D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS2
(1941-43 = 10)
Index of 500 stock prices
Percent rising of 75 componenfs

Coal bituminous
. .
...
Food composite
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Textile products
.
Paper
Publishing

+
. . ..

106.48 -

102.04 -

(73)

(12)

101.46 -

(43)

+

+
+
-

+

+

Chemicals
Drugs
Oil composite
Building materials composite
Steel
Metal fabricating

+
+
+

-

+
+
+

... ...

Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
Electronics
Automobiles
Radio and television broadcasters

+

101.26 +

(54)

(13)

o

Telephone companies
Electric companies
Natural gas distributors
Retail stores composite
Life insurance

99.30 +

+

(75)

... +
+
+
... +

(1)

94.71
(4)

+

...

+

•••
...

+

+

+
+
+

+
+

-

...

+
+
+

+
+

+

...

+

+

+

...

+

+
+

+

...

+
-

+
+
+

-

+
o
+
+

...
...

+

+
+
... +
+
+
+

+

+
+

... +

+
+

+

...

...

...

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. *Denotes machinery
and equipment industries that comprise series 24. t These industries plus ordnance comprise series 647.
are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Data are not seasonally adjusted. The components showi here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table E3.
2

92




AUGUST

1969

ItCB

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1968

1969

Diffusion index components
January

December

February

March

May

April

i

August

July

June

D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 2
Industrial materials price
index (1957- 59-100)

+

100.7

+

103.4

+

106.3

+

106.9

+

109.3

+

110.4 +

111.6 +

112.4

+

115.0

(Dollars)
Percent rising of 13 components

Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.)
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin(lb.)
Zincflb.)
Burlap (yd.)

+
+

Cotton (Ib.), 12-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average.
Wool tops (Ib.)
Hides (Ib.).
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib.)
Tallow (Ib.)

+
+
+

(38)
.446
.054
22.505
1.648
.139
.159
.265
.208
1.626
.177
11.385
.226
.046

(54)
+
.480
+
-059
+ 24.575
- 1.632
+ ..143
.156

+
+
+
+
+
.260 +
.210 +
- 1.607 .171
+ 11.838 .225 +
+
.048 +

(62)
.448
.066
27.256
1.668
.144
.163
.256
.212
1.576
.164
11.803
.247
.049

(46)

+
.480
o
.066
- 25.407
1.584
o
.144
.154

(65)

+
.534
+
.070
+ 25.536
1.567
+
.146
.3A3
.254

.255

+
.213
+
.217
1.572
1.575 .163
+
.193
+ 11.891 o 11.893
+
.260
+
.265
+
.056
+
.059

(58)
+ .545 +
+
.073 +
+ 30.644 +
- 1.565 +
+
.150 +
.136 +
.250 o
+
.224
+ 1.584 +
.190
+ 11.964 o
.255 +
o
.059. +

(77)
.561
.074
31.283
1.594
.151
.140
.250
.221
1.597
.179
11.964
.260
.064

(62)
+
.577
+
.078
- 29.774
+ 1.617
o
.151
+
.1A5
.249
o
.221
- 1.572
.172
+ 12.410
+
.278
+
.068

(77)
+
.603
+
.079
+ 31.408
+ 1.668
o
.151
.143

+
.257
o
.221
+ 1.575
.166
+ 12.550
+
.307
+
.075

D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS 3
(Thousands)
Avg. weekly initial claims ...

o

Northeast region:
Boston (7) . .
Buffalo (20)
Newark (11)
New York (1)
Paterson (21)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (25)
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (22)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26). .
Detroit (5)... .
Indianapolis (23)
Kansas City (19)
Milwaukee (18)
Minneapolis (13)
St. Louis (8)
South region:
Atlanta (17)
Baltimore (12)
Dallas (15) .
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
Portland (24)
San Francisco (6)
Seattle (16)

190

+

(62)

Percent rising of 47 components

+

+
+
+
+

+
+
+
+

...

+
+

...
...

+

+
+

...
...

+

...

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+

184

+
+

...
...

...
...
...

+
+
+
+

...
...
...
...

+

+
+
+

...

+
+
+

+
+
+
+
+

+

...

...

+

...

+

...

...

+

...

+

...

+

__

+

+
+

+

+

...

+

...

...

+

...

+

...

+

...

+

+
+

+
+

...
...
+

+

+
+

+
+

...

...

197
(51)

(23)

+

...

_
+

201 +

(57)

(49)

+

...
+
+
+

180

176

+
...
...

+
+

+

+

(55)

+
+
+
+
+

...

+
+
+
+
+

+

(38)

+
+
+

+
+

. .

186

179
(72)

+
+
+

+

...

...

+
+

...

+

...

+
+

...
...

+
+
+

...
...

...

+

...

+

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1

Average for August 5, 12, and 19.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
The industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted.
3
The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises:
(-) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (+) = falling.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before
the direction of change is determined.
Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month.
Directions of change are
shown separately for only the 26 largest labor market areas. The number following the area designation indicates its size rank.
2

AUGUST 1969



93

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1968

1969

Diffusion index components
January

December

March

February

May1*

April

June

JulyP

D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS 1
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagricultural payrolls
Percent rising of 30 components .

Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products.
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retai 1 trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government

+ 68,875

(73)
o
195
+
524
+
402
+
530
+ 1,044

+ 1,100

- 1,346
+ 1,330
- 1,427
o
287
+
351

. + 1,202
69
o
883
- 1,243
+
549
+
671
+
617
o
119
+
441
305
+
623
+ 3,330
+ 4,360
+ 3,678
- 10,593
+ 3,463
+ 10,838
+ 2,724
+ 9,308

+ 69,199
(90)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o

196
528
407
534
1,051
1,109
1,359
1,344
1,439
288
351

+ 69,487

+ 69,710

(70)

+
+
+
+
+
+
+

195
527
410
537
1,058
1,115
1,370
1,355
1,426
289
346

(70)

+
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
+

+ 69,789
(42)

197
193
528
525
410 +
413
529
535
1,063 - 1,057
1,121 - 1,118
1^363 + 1,370
1,364 + 1,369
1,432 - 1,420
292
292 o
348
349

+ 70,013

+ r70,270

+ 70,462

(62)

(73)

(72)

+
+
+
+
+

192
530
kVZ
526
1,062
1,121
1^366
1,381
1,399
294
347

+ 1,205
+
71
+
885
+ 1,254
+
550
+
673
o
617
73
+
444
+
306

+ 1,215
69
883
- 1,238
+
555
672
+
620
+
101
+
448
302

- 1,208
o
69
880
+ 1,246
o
555
+
673
o
620
+
116
+
449
301

- 1,205
68
875
+ 1,252
549
672
617
+
118
0
449
300

+ 1,206
+
69
871
+ 1,255
+
554
669
o
617
o
118
+
451
o
300

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+

+
628
+ 3,366
+ 4,373
+ 3,714
+ 10,754
+ 3,502
+ 10,967
+ 2,767
+ 9,355

626
+ 3,374
+ 4,399
+ 3,726
+ 10,782
+ 3,515
+ H,034
- 2,759
+ 9,373

624
- 3,363
+ 4,439
+ 3,737
+ 10,796
+ 3,531
+ 11,044
o 2,758
+ 9,386

+
+
+
+
+
+
+

626
3,338
4,353
3,701
10,711
3,490
10,900
2,760
9,321

622
3,407
4,444
3,758
10,851
3,541
H,065
2,754
9,453

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o

r!89
r528
413
532
rl,075
rl,126
rl,376
rl,382
1,431
r293
r347

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+

191
531
416
528
1,077
1,131
1,384
1,406
1,462
297
351

- rl,200
o
69
+
r874
0
rl,255
+
r557
+
r676
+
r623
o
rl!8
+
r455
r299
o
r622
+ r3,459
+ r4,456
+ r3,772
+rlO,891
+ r3,557
Orll,062
+ r2,790
+ r9,465

- 1,192
o
69
+
881
+ 1,263
+
560
+
678
619
o
118
+
458
297
+
626
- 3,445
+ 4,490
- 3,770
.+ 10,922
+ 3,572
- 11,051
o 2,791
+ 9,505

D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(1957-59=100)
All industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components 2

Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay, glass, and lumber
Clay, glass, and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous

+ 170.1
(62)

+ 171.4
(92)

+ 171.7
(46)

+ 172.7
(62)

+ 173.9

+ 175.2

(54)

(73)

(69)

+ 135*.4
+ 175.6

+ 139.'5
+ 176.4

+ 143)6
+ 177.6

+ 146.2
+ 178.5

+ rl47)9
- 178.3

+ 1A9>)5
+ 179.2

+ 152)1
+ 181.3

+
+

156
182

+ 185)3
+ 193.0
- 176.4
+ 189.7

+ 188.*3
+ 196.4
- 171.2
+ 191.6

+ 189.' 6
+ 196.9
+ 173.1
- 190.4

+ 196)2
+ 200.7
+ 174.1
+ 192.8

+ 196)8
- 199.5
- 172.4
+ 195.4

+ 193.*1
+ 201.8
- 171.8
- 195.3

+ rl95)4
o 201.9
+ rl75.9
+ 195.7

+
+
+
+

+ 15li2
+ 132.3

+ 156!2
- 122.5

+ 156)5
+ 126.7

- 153)4
+ 130.8

+ rl55.'l
- 122.6

+ 156)9 - 154)6
- pii9.o
- 120.7

-

197
204
179
199
140
153
(NA)

+ 182.9
+ 165.3

+ 186 .*8
+ 166.2

- 186.5
- 164.7

+ 187.0
+ 165.7

+ 188)<?
+ 167.6

+ 196)2
- 167.5

+
+

+ 168.7
(65)

+ 169.1

+ rl91.0
+ rl68.1

192
171

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1

Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions
of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for the current month are rounded.
2

94




AUGUST 1969

BCII

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1968

1969

Diffusion index components
December

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1-Continued
(1957-59=100)
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products.
Apparel products
Leather and products

- 153.5
- 149.2
- 109.2

- 152.9
- 14801
- 105.0

- 152.0
- 147.9
- 101.3

-t 152.9
+ 150.2
-t- 105.6

+ r!54.2
- r!47.8
- 103.4

+ r!56.4
+ P152.7
+ p!07.4

- r!46.3
+ p!57.6
(NA)
(NA)

Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing

- 169^9
o 152.3

+ 171! i
+ 152.4

+ 173^9
- 152.1

+ 175^6
+ 153.0

+ 175^8
- 152.7

- rl75.*7
+ 155.9

- P175O
+ r!57.0

Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products

- 231^3
- 131.0
- 230.8

+ 234^4
+ 140.2
+ 232.8

+ 235^2
+ 142.7
+ 236.2

+ r239^i
- 142.2
- P234.2

- r238^9
+ r!43.5
+ P234.9

+ r223,0
+ P239.6
+ P145.5
(NA)

+

+ 23i.'e
- 141.2
+ 234.6

P223
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

Foods, beverages, and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products

+ 139^4
+• 119.5

+ 14<X9
+ 121.2

+ 14l! 5
- 118.7

- rl40.5
- 110.5

- rl38!6
+ pl!5.4

+ r!37.1
+ p!38.8
(NA)

+

+ 138*.8
- 113.6

p!38
(NA)
(NA)

+ 118.3
- 125.4

- H5.3
- 123.9

- 112.4
- 121.8

+ 114.3
+ 123.5

+ 120.2
+ 126.9

+ 123.9
+ r!29.6

- 116.0
+ 133.8

-i-

+ 137^6
+ 147.0

+
-

+ 142!1?
+ 149.2

+ 149'.1
+ 150.5

- r!46.6
- 141.4

- rl36!l
- 141.2

+ p!36!3
+ p!42.6

p!26
P-133
p!41
(NA)
(NA)

+ 112.8

+ 113.2

»

Minerals:
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals

34C)!2
143.5

+

p!47
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

+

pl66
(NA)
p!58

+

+

D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES2
(1957-59=100)
All manufacturing industries

+ 111.3

+ 111.7

+ 112.2

(68)

(73)

(75)

(84)

+ 137.8
+ 105.3
+ 110.6
+ 107.5
+ 127.2
+ 109.3
+ 119.6
+ 118.5

+ 144.5
+ 105.4
+ 111.2
+ 108.0

+ 149.5
+ 105.7
+ 111.9
-i- 108.8

- 143.3
-h 105.8
+ 112.3
+ 108.9

- 138.0
+ 105.9
+ 112.6
+ 109.9

- 129.8
o 105.9
+ 112.8
-i- 110.3

+ 129.9
+ 109.6
o 120.4
+ 119.8

+ 132.4
+ 110.2
o 120.4
+ 120.0

+ 134.2
+ 110.8
+ 120.5
+ 120.3

+ 135.5 -t 136.1
+ 111.0 + 112.0
+ 120.7 + 121.3
+ 121.2 + 121.5

+ H5.7
o 103.5
- 106.5
o H2.5

+ 128.9
+ 109.4
+ 120.4
+ 119.1
+ 116.1
o 103.5
- 106.4
o 112.5

+ 116.5
+ 104.2
- 106.3
o 112.5

+ 116.6
+ 104.3
+ 106.4
+ 112.7

+ 117.6

+ 117.8
+ 104.5 + 104.7
+ 106.5 + 106.6
+ 112.8
+ 115.1

+ 118.1
+ 104.8
o 106.6
+ 115.5

o 114.7
- 105.1
o 104.6
- 92.9
+ 111.9

+ 116.0
- 104.8
+ 104.7
- 92.8
+ H2.7

+ 116.3
o 104.8
- 104.4
- 92.3
o 112.7

+ 116.4
- 104.6
- 104.2
- 92.1
+ 112.8

+ 117.3
- 104.5
+ 104.3
+ 92.4
+ 113.0

+ 119.4
+ 104.6
o 104.3
+ 92.6
- 112.9

+ 121.4
- 104.5
+ 105.0
+ 92.7
+ 113.3

+
+
o
+

o
o
+

+ 106.2
- 97.6
- 98.9
-. 100.0
+ 123.5

+ 106.8
+ 97.8
+ 99.5
+ 100.5
- 123.4

+ 107.4
+ 98.0
+ 101.7
+ 100.9
o 123.4

+ 108.0
- 97.9
+ 102.5
+ 101.2
+ 126.0

+ 108.1
+ 98.1
- 102.4
- 101.1
+ 126.1

-h 108.3
-i- 98.3
i- 103.3
+ 101.2
- 125.7

+ 108.4
98.2
- 103.2
+ 102.5
+ 126.4

+ 110.5
(61)

Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products.
Miscellaneous metal products. . .
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
.
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products

+ 133.5
+ 105.0
+ 109.3
+ 106.1
+ 123.5
+ 109.0
+ 118.3
o 118.3
+ 115.6
- 103.5
o 106.6
o 112.5

105.2
97.7
99.0
101.1
122.8

+ 112.4

(80)

+

(84)

113.5
(77)

- 125.3
+ 106.1
+ 113.0
+
111.1

122.0
105.3
105.0
92.6
113.9

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1

Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Data are not seasonally adjusted.

2

BUI


AUGUST 1969


95

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1968

1969

Diffusion index components
December

January

February

March

Mayr

April

Julyp

June

D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES 1
(Millions of dollars)
- 28,347
Percent rising of 23 components

(22)

Grocery stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise) . .
Variety stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel accessory stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance, TV, radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores

+ 28,989

+
+

_
+

5,744
2,062
2,877
275

+
+
+

852
429
937
267

+
+
+

535
406
622
249
876
446
958
261

+ 5,157
+
417
+ 2,097
+
979
+
634

_ 28,916

(61)

(74)

+ 5,909
+ 2,094
- 2,861
273

505
371
589
263

5,082
363
2,052
969
565

+ 29,289

(22)

+ 5,955 - 5,883
+ 2,123 - 2,107
+ 2,924 , - 2,895
296
+
298
+
+
+

534
416
645
261

+

+ 29,442

920
431
+ 1,049
+
281

+

+ 5,172
+
435
- 2,091
959
603

-

(74)

- 5,839
+ 2,133
+ 3,080
294

517
393
615
245

+
+
+
+

922
400
992
269

+

5,099
419
+ 2,132
+
960
601

_ 29,386

+

558
414
649
266
903
436
974
287

+ 5,145
+
427
- 2,106
+
963
+
619

-r29,337

(41)

+

(65)

(52)

+ 5,906 - p5,846
+ 2,186 + P2,190
- 2,011 - p2,971
p288
285 +

o

+ 29,481

+
+
-

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

546
399
633
266

+
+

P553 + (NA)
P385 + (NA)
p631 + (NA)
P289 + (NA)

902
455
943
281

+
+
+
o

P917
P478
P947
P281

+

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

+ P5,2ii

+
+
+

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

- 5,102
414
+ 2,119
+
996
615

o
p414
- p2,080
P978
+
P633

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1

Data are seasonally adjusted "by the source agency.
The diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately. In March 1969 a new seasonal adjustment of the retail trade data was completed and the basic data and directions of change in this table reflect that seasonal
adjustment.
2

96




AUGUST 1969

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Q CONSUMER PRICES
Year
and
month

133. Canada,
781. United
index of consumer
States, index of
consumer prices© prices©

132. United King- 135. West Germany, 136. France,
index of consumer index of consumer
dom, index of
prices®
consumer prices® prices®

138. Japan, index
of consumer

137. Italy, index
of consumer
prices©

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

1967
January
February
March

115
115
115

117
117
118

129
129
129

123
123
123

141
141
U£

153
154
154

137
138
138

April
May
June

115
116
116

119
119
120

130
130
130

124
124
124

142
142
142

154
153
152

138
138
139

July . .
August . . .
September .

116
117
117

121
121
121

130
130
129

124
123
123

142
143
143

152
153
156

139
139
140

October
November
December
1968
January
February
March

118
118
118

121
121
122

129
131
131

123
123
123

144
U5
145

159
159
160

140
140
140

119
119
120

123
123
123

132
133
133

125
125
125

147
147
147

161
161
162

140
140
140

April
May
June

120
120
121

124
124
124

136
136
136

125
125
126

147
148
148

162
163
161

141
141
141

July
August
September

122
122
122

125
125
126

136
137
137

126
2^5
125

149
149
150

162
162
168

140
140
141

October
November
December
1969
January . . .
February
March

123
123
124

126
127
127

137
138
140

126
126
127

152,
152
153

166
167
166

141
241
141

224
125
126

127
227
128

140
141
142

128
128
129

155
155
156

167
167
169

142
142
143

April
May
June

126
12?
128

129
130
131

243
243
(NA)

129
129
129

156
157
158

171
171
171

143
143
244

July
August
September

128

131

129

(1957-59=100)

(NA)

174

(NA)

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Compjete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; a p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

ItCII AUGUST




1969

97

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Q INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
47. United
States, index of
industrial production

123. Canada,
index of industrial production

122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production

126. France,
index of industrial production

125. West Germany, index of
industrial production

128. Japan, index of industrial
production

121.0ECD,1
European countries, index of
industrial production

127. Italy, index
of industrial production

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59-100)

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

1967
January
February
March

158
157
157

166
166
166

129
129
129

156
154
156

150
149
150

298
295
304

153
153
154

207
211
209

April
May
June

157
156
156

168
167
168

130
128
129

153
152
156

149
150
148

305
312
317

154
153
154

212
212
211

July
. . .
August
September

156
158
157

169
170
170

129
129
128

156
156
159

154
152
155

321
327
336

155
154
156

211
198
211

October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
. ...

157
160
162

169
173
174

129
131
134

159
160
161

156
158
171

338
346
349

157
159
164

215
217
216

161
162
163

172
172
173

133
134
135

162
164
167

157
159
165

347
354
351

160
161
164

218
220
222

April
May
June

162
164
166

175
176
179

133
135
136

167
116
133

164
167
180

362
372
373

164
154
163

222
224
221

July
August
September

166
165
165

178
178
180

137
138
136

171
171
170

166
182
177

382
381
389

167
171
171

223
217
234

October
. . .
November
December
1969
January
February
March
. .

166
168
169

182
184
185

137
239
140

179
r!82
r!84

176
185
187

397
407
400

r!74
r!77
178

235
226
233

169
170
171

185
187
191

139
r!39
139

r!83
180
180

186
189
190

402
410
405

179
179
180

238
232
239

April
. . .
May
June
juiy
August
September

172
173
174

P186

187

r!40
p!39
(NA)

185
185
p!83

189
195
p!98

428
r429
P436

181
P183
(NA)

241
(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

Year
and
month

October
November
December

(NA)

p!75

. .
. .

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order.. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
^Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

98




AUGUST 1969

IICII

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Q STOCK PRICES

Year
and
month

143. Canada, index
19. United States,
index of stock
of stock prices©
prices, 500 common
stocks ©

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

142. United Kingdom, index of
stock prices©

(1957-59-100)

146. France, index
of stock prices©

(1957-59=100)

145. West Germany, 148. Japan, index
of stock prices©
index of stock
prices©

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

147. Italy, index
of stock prices©

(1957-59=100)

1967
January
February
March

171
177
181

175
180
182

157
156
159

99
103
98

148
156
159

223
229
228

142
141
127

April
May . .
June

184
188
185

185
186
186

167
171
172

96
99
98

158
155
154

223
231
231

129
132
130

July
August
September

189
192
194

189
194
198

176
177
187

94
99

no

156
175
182

231
215
209

129
133
139

October
November
December

194
188
193

192
188
189

196
203
200

109
106
103

182
192
194

213
206
198

143
139
135

1968
January . .
February
March

193
184
181

189
177
171

202
208
213

107
104
113

205
209
207

203
208
209

134
130
133

April
May
June

194
198
204

183
185
187

235
246
252

117
111
107

216
219
226

220
229
235

136
135
133

July
August
September

2Q3
199
205

194
192
198

265
272
279

103
105
105

230
231
224

243
254
276.

136
138
136

October
November
December

210
2U
216

203
204
210

270
273
279

104
105
109

228
224
219

275
.264
266

131
127
134

January . . . . .
February
March

207
206
201

214
213
208

291
282
270

113
121
130

228
230
231

279
282
279

135
133
136

April
May
June

205
212
201

213
224
209

266
253
235

128
136
124

233
243
247

293
302
304

152
153
150

192
p!93

199
p!96

rp226
P224

rpl!7
p!22

238
p245

300
P294

rp!47
pI49

1969

Juiv
August
September
October
November
December

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; ttp", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

BCD


AUGUST 1969


99




APPENDIXES
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability
Part 1. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes

Period
covered

Quarterly series

Cl

1

C

I/C

I/C
for
QCD
span

QCD

Average duration of run
(ADR)

Cl

1

C

QCD

A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
200.
205
210
215
217
220.
222

GNP in current dol lars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
National income, current dollars
Personal income current dollars

1.62
1.23
.57
1.37
1.04
1.70
1.51

.31
.30
.10
.30
.30
.35
.23

1.55
1.12
.56
1.28
.91
1.59
1.48

.20
.27
.18
.24
.33
.22
.16

1
1
1
1
1
1
1

.20
.27
.18
.24
.33
.22
.16

7.22
3.82
16.25
5.91
5.00
7.11
13.00

1.33
1.27
1.35
1.33
1.27
1.36
1.23

9.29
7.22
32.50
9.29
7.22
10.67
13.00

7.22
3.82
16.25
5.91
5.00
7.11
13.00

Disposable personal income, current dollars . . , . IQ'53-IIQ'69....
.
Disposable personal income, constant dollars .... IQ'53-IIQ'69....
Per capita disposable personal income, current dol, IQ'53-IIQ'69....
Per capita disposable personal income, constant
dol lars
IQ'53-IIQ'69---230. Total personal consumption expenditures, current
dollars
IQ'53-IIQ'69-...
231. Total personal consumption expenditures, constant
dollars
IQ'53-IQ'69....

1.43
1.07
1.13

.27
.29
.26

1.39
1.00
1.07

.19
.29
.24

1
1
1

.19
.29
.24

13.00
5.91
7.22

1.27
1.33
1.27

65.00
9.29
9.29

13.00
5.91
7.22

.40

1

.40

3.82

1.44

5.91

3.82

232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods
233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods,
except automobi les
234 Personal consumption expend automobiles
236. Personal consumption expend., nondurable goods .
237. Personal consumption expenditures, services ....

IQ'53-IIQ'69....

3.12

IQ'53-IQ'69....
IQ'53-IQ'69....
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
IQ'53-IIQ'69....

IQ'SMIQ'69 ...
IQ'53-IIQ'69 ...
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
IQ'53-IQ'69....
IQ'53-IIQ'69....

224.
225.
226.
227.

.82

.29

.73

1.44

.35

1.40

.25

1

.25

9.29

1.27

65.00

9.29

1.05

.41

1.01

.41

1

.41

4.27

1.21

7.11

4.27

1.42

2.43

.58

1

.58

2.83

1.20

5.00

2.83

2.08
6.11
1.17
1.75

.90
3.50
.47
.22

1.83
4.22
1.13
1.71

.49
.83
.42
.13

1
1
1
1

.49
.83
.42
.13

4.57
2.46
5.91
65.00

1.23
1.28
1.25
1.23

8.00
3.56
32.50
65.00

4.57
2.46
5.91
65.00

240. Gross private domestic investment, total
241 Total nonresidential fixed investment

IQ'53-IIQ f 69....
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
243. Fixed investment, producers' durable equipment . . IQ'53-IIQ'69....
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
244 Fixed investment, residential structures

4.74
2.87
2.81
3.26
3.43

2.29
1.01
1.62
1.23
1.01

3.42
2.48
2.13
2.78
3.07

.67
.41
.76
.44
.33

1
1
1
1
1

.67
.41
.76
.44
.33

2.60
4.33
2.50
2.95
2.95

1.38
1.35
1.25
1.25
1.35

4.33
5.00
4.33
5.00
5.91

2.60
4.33
2.50
2.95
2.95

IQ'53-IIQ'69....
Exports of goods and services
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
Imports of goods and services
Gov purchases of Roods and services total • • « • • IQ'53-IIQ'69....
Federal Gov. purchases of goods and services . . IQ
. '53-110 '69....
Federal Government purchases of goods and
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
services for national defense
266. State and local gov. purchases, goods and services IQ'53-IIQ'69....

3.95
3.33
2.01
2.26

2.57
1.97
.56
.89

2.53
2.32
1.89
1.98

1.02
.85
.29
.45

2
1
1
1

.44
.85
.29
.45

2.60
2.83
5.91
3.25

1.33
1.27
1.27
1.35

5.00
5.91
13.00
4.64

3.76
2.83
5.91
3.25

2.20
2.40

.76
.47

1.90
2.37

.40
.20

1
1

.40
.20

2.95
21.67

1.25
1.30

5.00
21.67

2.95
21.67

270.
274
280
282
284
286.

IQ'53-IQ'69....
IQ'53-IQ'69 ....
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
IQ'53-IQ'69....

2.27
1.26
1.68
1.26
.99
4.26

.87
.54
.25
.69
.36
2.20

1.96
1.20
1.63
.99
.89
3.31

.44
.45
.16
.69
.41
.67

1
1
1
1
1
1

.44
.45
.16
.69
.41
.67

3.76
5.82
9.29
2.32
9.29
3.05

1.31
1.21
1.27
1.35
1.23
1.23

7.11
16.00
9.29
5.42
7.22
3.76

3.76
5.82
9.29
2.32
9.29
3.05

IQ'53-IIQ'69....
IQ'53-IQ'69....
IQ'53-IIQ'69....

3.95
4.84
8.88

.93
2.42
7.22

3.91
3.66
4.61

.24
.66
1.57

1
1
2

.24
.66
.50

21.67
3.05
1.51

1.30
1.19
1.27

21.67
6.40
3.25

21.67
3.05
2.67

IQ'53-IQ'69....
IQ'53-IIQ'69....

8.98
1.81

5.39
.34

6.17
1.76

.87
.19

1
1

.87
.19

2.21
21.67

1.25
1.38

3.05
21.67

2.21
21.67

IQ'53-IIIQ'67....
IQ'53-IQ'69....
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
IQ'53-IIIQ'67....

9.31
5.06
1.49
3.13

4.62
2.85
.33
.74

6.89
3.87
1.46
2.91

.67
.74
.23
.26

1
1
1
1

.67
.74
.23
.26

3.05
3.05
13.00
5.80

1.29
1.23
1.23
1.41

3.41
4.57
13.00
5.80

3.05
3.05
13.00
5.80

IQ'53-IQ'69....
IQ'53-IIIQ'67....
IQ'53-IIIQ'6Z...
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
IQ'53-IIQ'69....

.86
5.36
10.95
1.62
1.23

.40
.84
6.17
.31
.30

.72
5.21
8.16
1.55
1.12

.56
.16
.76
.20
.27

1
1
1
1
1

.56
.16
.76
.20
.27

3.37
4.14
2.23
7.22
3.82

1.31
1.32
1.29
1.33
1.27

4.92
5.80
3.62
9.29
7.22

3.37
4.14
2.23
7.22
3.82

3.09
2.30
1.51
8.10
2.73

1.00
.74
.31
5.63
1.45

2.68
1.81
1.45
4.61
1.77

.37
.41
.21
1.22
.82

1
1
1
2
1

.37
.41
.21
.55
.82

4.18
4.60
6.57
1.95
2.25

1.35
1.35
1.31
1.30
1.13

5.11
5.75
9.20
3.55
3.46

4.18
4.60
6.57
2.37
2.25

252
253
260
262.
264.

Final sales durable goods
Final sales nondurable goods
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income
Rental income of persons
Corp. profits and inventory valuation adjustment. .

288 Net interest
290 Gross saving private and govewrppnt
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory
valuation adjustment
296 Capital consumption allowances
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
11
*16
57
*61
68.
97.
110
*200
*205

New capital appropriations manufacturing
Corporate profits after taxes
Final sales
Business expend new plant and equipment
Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing .
Total private borrowing
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

61a.
410
412.
430a
A35".

Business expend., new plant and equipment
Manufacturers' sales total value
Manufacturers' inventories, total book value
New car purchases by households
Index of consTimeT sentiment

IQ'57-IIIQ'68.
IQ'57-IIIQ'68.
IQ'57-IIIQ'68.
IQ'59-IVQ'68.
110 '57-1110 '68-

See definitions of measures at end of pgirt 1-




101

A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 1. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes-Continued

Period
covered

Quarterly series

Cl

1

C

T/c

I/C
for
QCD
span

QCD

Average duration of run
(ADR)

Cl

1

C

QCD

D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
252.
253.
264.
530
532.

Exports of goods and services.
Imports of goods and services
National defense purchases.
Liquid liabilities to all foreigners.
Liquid and certain non liquid liabilities to
foreign official agencies

534
536
537
540.

U S official reserve assets
Merchandise exports adjusted
Merchandise imports adjusted
Investment income, military sales, and other
services exports
541. Foreign investment income, military expenditures,
and other services imports

3.95
3.33
2.20
2.21

2.57
1.97
.76
.96

2.53
2.32
1.90
1.67

1.02
.85
.40
.57

2
1
1
1

.44
.85
.40
.57

2.60
2.83
2.95
2.40

1.33
1.27
1.25
1.24

5.00
5.91
5.00
3.00

3.76
2.83
2.95
2.40

IQ'60-IQ'69

....

3.95

2.62

2.50

1.05

2

.35

2.25

1.13

3.00

2.50

IQ'60-IQ'69 ....
IQ'60-IQ'69
....
IQ'60-IQ'69
....

2.16
4.12
3.91

1.14
2.74
1.80

1.75
2.46
3.31

.65
1.11
.54

1
2
1

.65
.52
.54

2.57
1.80
3.60

1.29
1.38
1.29

3.60
3.60
5.14

2.57
3.50
3.60

IQ'60-IQ'69

....

3.47

2.13

2.53

.84

1

.84

1.89

1.29

6.00

1.89

IQ'60-IQ'69 ....

2.36

1.37

1.80

.76

1

.76

2.25

1.16

6.00

2.25

IQ'60-IQ'69
....
». . .
IQ'60-IQ'69
....
IQ'60-IQ'69
....
IQ'60-IQ'69
....
IQ'60-IQ'69 ....

5.87
4.51
3.60
3.99
17.73

3.89
2.09
2.29
2.71
13.66

3.58
3.94
2.72
2.63
8.97

1.09
.53
.84
1.03
1.52

2
1
1
2
2

.43
.53
.84
.35
.65

1.71
3.60
4.00
2.40
1.44

1.29
1.29
1.33
1.24
1.33

3.27
6.00
5.14
4.00
2.12

2.69
3.60
4.00
3.50
2.06

IQ'60-IQ'69
....
U.S. military expenditures abroad
....
Receipts from transportation and other services. . . IQ'60-IQ'69
....
Payments for transportation and other services . . .IQ'60-IQ'69
....
Fed. receipts, nat'l. income and product accts. . .IQ'53-IQ'69
.
Fed. expend., nat'l. income and product accts. . . IQ'53-IIQ'69....
.

3.72
2.42
3.19
2.62
2.13

2.25
1.37
2.44
.94
.85

2.67
2.04
1.72
2.41
1.90

.84
.67
1.42
.39
.44

1
1
2
1
1

.84
.67
.61
.39
.44

2.25
3.60
1.80
4.27
4.33

1.29
1.24
1.24
1.31
1.23

3.60
9.00
6.00
6.40
5.91

2.25
3.60
2.92
4.27
4.33

8.53
.87

7.18
.40

4.52
.71

1.59
.56

2
1

.53
.56

1.44
3.25

1.27
1.23

3.61
8.13

3.20
3.25

542 Income on U S investments abroad
543 Income on foreign investments in U.S
544 Receipts from foreign travelers in U.S
545 Payments by U S travelers abroad
546 Mi litary sales to foreigners
547.
548.
549.
601.
602.

IQWIQ'69....
IQ'60-IIQ'69....
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
IQ'60-IQ'69
....

E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal
IQ'53-IIQ'69....
IQ'53-IIQ'69....

*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators.

BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1
The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators,
by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted
from Journal of Business, October 1957).
"Cl" is the average quarter-to-quarter percentage change,
without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series
or, if the series contains no measurable seasonal, in the
unadjusted series.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth,
flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, obtained
by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted
series.
"QCD" (quarters for cyclical dominance) provides an
estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
cyclical movements in a quarterly series. It is small for
smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving
QCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the
irregular component and the cyclical component over 1-quarter
spans (1st quarter-2d quarter, 2d quarter-3d quarter, etc.),
2-quarter spans (1st quarter-3d quarter, 2d quarter-4th
quarter, etc.), up to 4-quarter spans. Averages, without
regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each
span. QCD is the shortest span in quarters for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
cyclical component is larger than the average percentage
change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component,

102




and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series became dominated
by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with
a QCD greater than "2* are shown as "3*.
"T/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small
values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally ad jus ted
series. It is shown for 1-quarter spans and for spans of
the period of QCD. When QCD is "3", no T/C ratio is shown for
the QCD period.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
quarterly changes in the same direction in any series of
obse vations. When there fc is no change between 2 quarters, a
change in the same direction as the preceding change is
assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and
the QCD curve. The QCD curve is an unweighted moving
average (with the number of terms equal to QCD) of the
seasonally adjusted series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1quarter intervals in a random series, the expected value of
the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36
and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-quarter
intervals in a moving average (QCD) of a random series, the
expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of Cl is

BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1--Continued
1.56 for the series on the ratio of personal saving to disposable
personal income (series 854). This indicates that 1-quarter
changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the average,
reverse sign about a soften as expected in a random series. The
ADR measures shown in the next two columns, 1.30 for I and
3.21 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has
been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. Finally, ADR is
3.00 for the QCD moving average. This indicates that a

2-quarter moving average of the seasonally adjusted series
(2 quarters being the QCD span) reverses direction, on the
average, about every 3 quarters. The increase in the ADR
from 1.56 for CI to 3.00 for the QCD moving average indicates
that, for this series, quarter-to-quarter changes in the QCD
moving average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend
movements of the series, whereas the quarter-to-quarter
changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.

A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 2. Quarterly Series: Average Actual Changes

Period
covered

Quarterly series

Unit of
measure

T

CI

C

r/c

QCD

Average duration of run
(ADR)

I/C
for
QCD
span

CI

1

C

QCD

A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
245 Change in business inventories total

IQ'53-IIQ'69...

250
271.
275.
298

IQ'53-IIQ'69...
IQ'53-IQ'69....
IQ'53-IQ'69....
IQ'53-IQ'69....

Net exports of goods and services
•
•
Change in business inventories, durable goods.
Change in bus. inventories, nondurable goods .
Government surplus or deficit total
•

Ann. rate,
bil.dol....
...do
...do
...do
...do

2
1
2
2
1

.52
.74
.55
.88
.63

1.67
2.32
1.56
1.45
3.20

1.33
1.35
1.31
1.28
1.36

3.82
3.61
2.78
2.46
4.00

2.78
2.32
2.74
2.17
3.20

2

.48

2.52

1.29

3.32

3.44

2
1

.39
.48

2.37
2.70

1.28
1.48

-4.92
3.65

4.20
2.70

2

.52

1.67

1.33

3.82

2.78

.94

1

.94

2.30

1.35

3.07

2.30

.90

1

.90

1.71

1.33

3.00

1.71

1.46

2

.57

1.52

1.23

2.78

2.74

286.5

1.24

2

.80

2.00

1.50

2.25

2.19

422.5

266.4

1.59

2

.70

1.89

1.38

3.00

2.33

637.0
65.8
219.4
141.6
124.8

384.3
55.9
169.6
105.7
101.3

330.3
33.3
88.2
86.6
64.2

1.16
1.68
1.92
1.22
1.58

2
4
3
2
2

.70
C1)
(X)
.56
.41

1.80
1.44
1.50
1.80
1.33

1.50
1.24
1.38
1.29
1.16

3.00
1.89
2.57
3.00
2.77

2.19
1.94
2.83
2.19
2.33

265.6
289.2

216.1
213.6

117.8
157.7

1.84
1.36

2
2

.77
.63

1.50
1.44

1.24
1.33

2.00
2.00

2.19
1.84

2.69

1.51

2.08

.73

1

.73

2.29

1.33

4.00

2.29

4.16
1.72
.26

1.55
.69
.16

3.47
1.40
.17

.45
.49
.93

1
1
1

.45
.49
.93

2.95
2.82
2.04

1.30
1.41
1.36

5.00
3.65
3.27

2.95
2.82
2.04

2.85
\ .86
2.39
1.47
2.71

2.00
.46
1.62
1.27
1.40

1.53
.63
1.32
.54
2.23

1.31

Cents

.30

.22

.20

1.14

Percent ....
...do
Ann. rate,
bil.dol....

.46
.11

.32
.05

.32 1.00
.11 .48

2.85

2.00

1.53

IQ'57-IIIQ'68-.

Mil. cars ...

93.26

53.01

56.21

IQ'60-IQ'69....

Mil.dol

238.8

139.6

154.3

IQ'60-IQ'69....

...do

400.1 296.7

202.7

IQ'60-IQ'69....

...do

572.3

355.5

IQ'60-IQ'69....

...do

571.6

IQ'60-IQ'69....
IQ'GO-IQ'69....
IQ'60-IQ'69....
IQ'60-IQ'69....
IQ'60-IQ'69....

...do
...do
...do
...do
...do
...do
...do
Ann. rate,
bil.dol"....

.74
1.23
2.34

.63

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, mfg. . . IQ'53-IVQ'68...
22. Ratio of profits to income originating,
IQ'53-IQ'69....
corporate all industries
IQ'53-IIIQ'68...
*67 Bank rates on short-term bus loans®
IQ'53-IIQ'69...
245 Change in business inventories total

1.31

C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
480 Change in freight carloadings(§)
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
250. Balance on goods and services, excluding
mi litary grants
20. U.S. balance of payments, liquidity balance
[)3SJS

2. U.S. balance of payments, official settlements
[)3SJS

. Net capital movements plus unilateral
transfers liquidity balance basis
/. Net capital movements plus unilateral
transfers official settlements basis .......
0 Foreign direct investments in the U S
jl U S direct investments abroad
564 Foreign purchases of U S securities
565 U S purchases of foreign securities
570. Government grants and capital transactions,
net
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net. .
600. Fed. balance, nat'l. income and product accts.

IQ'60-IQ'69
.IQ'60-IQ'69
IQ'53-IIQ'69...

E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
207. GNP gap (potential less actual)
IQ'53-IIQ'69...
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing ...... IQ'53-IIIQ'68..
857 Vacancy rate in total rental housing®
IQ'56-IIQ'68...

...do
Percent
...do

*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators,
when QCD is "3."

®Measures are "based on unadjusted data.

•"•Not shown

BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2
These measures are computed by an additive method. This
; method is used for series with zero or negative data and for
' other series where it seems appropriate, such as series
< expressed in percent.
Thus, "CI" is the average quarter-to-quarter change in the
! seasonally adjusted series. This average is computed without
regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of measure
as the series itself.




"C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
*!* is the same for the irregular component, which is
determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the
seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures have the same meaning as in parti.

103

B. Current Adjustment Factors
1369

Series

Jan.
4. Nonagricultural placements, all
industries1
5. Average weekly initial claims,
State unemployment insurance —
1

13 New business incorporations • .
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of
sa les mf g 2
33. Net change in mortgage debt held
by financial institutions and life
insurance companies ^ 3
37. Purchased materials, percent of
companies reporting higher
inventories
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over,
total installment loans4
49. Nonagricultural job openings
unfilled
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
5

112 Change in business loans
508. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery
616. Defense Department obligations,
tota 1
621. Defense Department obligations,
procurement
625. Military contract awards in U.S —
D34. Profits, manufacturing (FNCB)6 . . .

87 4
151.3
118 2

Feb.

81 3
114.5

93 7

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

92 2

100 4

102 3

111 3

105 2

110 2

118 1

114 2

94 6

82 5

92.5

93.3

78.4

79.3

122.0

84.9

70.7

80.0

97.8

135.0

101 0

en 3

92 9

101 5

84 0

100 "•

108 1

105 3

97.8
-272

102.3

-448

101.0

-111

107.0

-1-59

106.5

+93

103.4

93.6

83.4

84.7

94.5

109.0

99.3

98.7

100.5

100.0

100.2

99.0

100.1

101.7

101 8

103.9

109.8

106.0

102 0

103.1

-t- 107

101.3

120.1

+157

+18

+126

-169

+238

102.2

95.6

88.1

91.7

97.7

99.0

91.9

Dec.

102.0

96.2
-1-215

Nov.

98.3

106 2

111.1

115.6

106.5

99.0

100.1

99.2

99.5

101.1

100.8

100.0

99.4

99.7

99.6

100.3

99.6

92.3

93.2

94.3

99.0

103.0

98.0

99.3

101.8

101.2

100.1

99.9

100.6

111.3

99.1

99.7

94.1

100.7

79.8

103.0

91.2

80.6

95.6

97.9

94.4

151.1

94.5

102.3

112.3

100.1

85.6

94.7

77.2

71.0

96.0

99.0

96.9

204.9

58.2

102.6

122.3

100.5

76.3

95.9

87.1
-15

81.0

88.7

86.4
+16

96.6

185.7

101.7
-9

115.0

98.7
+8

79.4

92.2

87.9

NOTE: These series are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasona I adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census or the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasona lly adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever
they are published. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. IS.The X-ll Variant of the Census Method
II Seasonal Adjustment Program.
1
Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of th
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors due
rounding.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted moi
totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the O
Method II seasonal adjustment program.
4
Bimonthly series. Factors are for even-numbered months (February, April, June, etc.).
5
Factors apply to monthly totals before month-to-month changes are computed.
6
l-quarter diffusion index:
Figures are placed in the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is compv
and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program,
subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.

104



C. Historical Data for Selected Series
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added
dded to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have notbeen seasonally adjusted*
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.

Monthly
Year

Feb.

Jan.
856.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

Quarterly
July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

1 Q

REAL AVERAGE HOURLY E A R N I N G S OF PRODUCTION WORKERS IN M A N U F A C T U R I N G
( 1957-59 DOLLARS)

II Q

Annual

III Q

IV Q

1.56

AVERAGE

1945. .

...

1947..

1.54

1.56

1.54

1.54

1.57

1.59

1.59

1.58

1.56

1.56

1.56

1.55

1.55

1.57

1.58

1.56

1948..
1949..
1950..

1.54
1.64
1.70

1.58
1.67
1.71

1.58
1.66
1.71

1.56
1.66
1.72

1.56
1.66
1.72

1.57
1.66
1.72

1.56
1.67
1.72

1.59
1.67
1.72

1.59
1.66
1.70

1.61
1.66
1.72

1.62
1.65
1.73

1.64
1.68
1.75

1.57
1.66
1.71

1.56
1.66
1.72

1.58
1.67
1.71

1.62
1.66
1.73

1.58
1.66
1.72

1951..
1952..
1953..

1.72
1.74
1.83

1.71
1.77
1.86

1.71
1.78
1.87

1.72
1.77
1.87

1.73
1.77
1.86

1.74
1.76
1.86

1.74
1.74
1.87

1.74
1.77
1.88

1.74
1.80
1.87

1.73
1.82
1.87

1.74
1.81
1.88

1.74
1.82
1.88

1.71
1.76
1.85

1.73
1.77
1.86

1.74
1.77
1.87

1.74
1.82
1.88

1.73
1.78
1.87

1954..
1955..
1956..

1.88
1.94
2.03

1.89
1.95
2.03

1.89
1.95
2.05

1.90
1.98
2.07

1.90
1.99
2.06

1.90
1.97
2.06

1.88
1.99
2.03

1.90
2.00
2.07

1.90
2.01
2.08

1.91
2.01
2.09

1.93
2.03
2.08

1.93
2.02
2.09

1.89
1.95
2.04

1.90
1.98
2.06

1.89
2.00
2.06

1.92
2.02
2.09

1.90
1.99
2.06

1957..
1958..
1959..

2.09
2.08
2.14

2.09
2.08
2.15

2.09
2.07
2.17

2.09
2.08
2.18

2.08
2.08
2.18

2.08
2.08
2.18

2.08
2.08
2.17

2.09
2.10
2.14

2.09
2.10
2.16

2.10
2.10
2.14

2.10
2.13
2.15

2.09
2.14
2.18

2.09
2.08
2.15

2.08
2.08
2.18

2.09
2.09
2.16

2.10
2.12
2.16

2.09
2.09
2.16

196D..
1961..
1962..

2.20
2.20
2.27

2.21
2.19
2.26

2.21
2.20
2.27

2.19
2.21
2.27

2.20
2.23
2.27

2.19
2.23
2.27

2.19
2.22
2.26

2.20
2.23
2.27

2.21
2.23
2.26

2.20
2.25
2.27

2.19
2.26
2.27

2.19
2.26
2.29

2.21
2.20
2.27

2.19
2.22
2.27

2.20
2.23
2.26

2.19
2.26
2.28

2.20
2.23
2.27

1963..
1964..
1965..

2.28
2.32
2.36

2.29
2.32
2.37

2.30
2.33
2.38

2.30
2.33
2.37

2.31
2.34
2.37

2.31
2.34
2.37

2.30
2.35
2.38

2.30
2.36
2.38

2.31
2.36
2.39

2.30
2.33
2.39

2.32
2.35
2.40

2.32
2.36
2.39

2.29
2.32
2.37

2.31
2.34
2.37

2.30
2.36
2.38

2.31
2.35
2.39

2.30
2.34
2.38

1966..
1967..

2.40
2.41

2.39
2.42

2.39
2.43

2.40
2.42

2.40
2.42

2.40
2.43

2.40
2.43

2.40
2.44

2.41
2.43

2.40
2.43

2.41
2.44

2.41
2.45

2.39
2.42

2.40
2.42

2.40
2.43

2.41
2.44

2.40
2.43

859.

R E A L S P E N D A B L E A V E R A G E W E E K L Y E A R N I N G S OF P R O D U C T I O N OR N O N S U P E R V ISORY
WORKERS ON P R I V A T E NONAGR ICULTURAL PAYROLLS ( 1957-59 DOLLARS)

AVERAGE

...

...
...
...

1955..

...
...
...
...
...
...

76.25
78.29

76.44
78.92

76.70

77.58

76.19
78.16

76.27
78.32

...
76. 2^

79.14

75.60
78.33

76.91

79.16

79.07

78.47

78.15

78.36
77.94

78.30
78.49

78.26

78.65

78.41

78.16

78.31

78.16

78.11

77.78

78.23

78,20

78.38
78.08

..

1964..
1965..

75.21
78.16

75.87
78.47

75.71

1966..
1967..

78.82
78.52

78.51
77.91

78.61

78.37
77.89

76.26
77.96

76.32
78.44

75.98
78.07

78.53
77.72

78.29
77.79

78.40
77.84

76.03

76.54

78.15

78.51

78.37

77.95
78.23

78.11

78.36

Note: See "New Features and Changes for This Is sue," page iii.




(AUGUST 1969)

105

C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol <§) (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Quarterly

Quarterly
Year

858.

1

II

Hi

IV

INDEX OF OUTPUT PER MAN-HOUR, TOTAL PRIVATE
1
NONFARM (1957-59-100)

...
...

...
...

Annual

Year

AVERAGE

210A.

Annual

1

II

III

IV

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR, GROSS NATIONAL
PRODUCT (1958-100)2

AVERAGE

19*5...
1946...
19*7...

72.5

...
...
74.4

...
74.5

75.3

...
...
74.2

1945...
1946...
1947...

7315

...
...
73.7

...
74.9

...
77.0

59.7
66.7
74.6

1948...
1949...
1950...

75.3
78.3
83.2

76.3
79.0
83.8

76.8
80.7
85.2

77.4
79.8
85.6

76.4
79.4
84.4

1948...
1949...
1950...

78.2
79.7
78.3

79.2
79.1
79.0

80.6
78.8
80.8

80.3
78.9
82.3

79.6
79.1
80.2

1951...
1952...
1953...

84.6
87.1
88.8

85.2
86.5
89.6

87.5
86.6
89.9

87.6
87.7
89.8

86.2
87.0
89.5

1951...
1952...
1953...

84.8
86.7
88.4

85.4
87.1
88.3

85.6
87.7
88.4

86.7
88.3
88.4

85.6
87.5
88.3

1954...
1955...
1956...

90.1
94.9
94.4

90.9
95.9
95.1

92.3
96.3
95.1

92.9
95.6
95.8

91.5
95.7
95.1

1954...
1955...
1956...

89.5
90.2
92.6

89.6
90.6
93.4

89.5
91.0
94.6

89.8
91.6
95.4

89.6
90.9
94.0

1957...
1958...
1959...

96.7
97.1
102.5

96.8
99.0
103.5

97.7
100.6
102.7

97.9
101.9
103.7

97.3
99.6
103.1

1957...
1958...
1959...

96.4
99.3
101.1

97.1
99.7
101.5

98.0
100.1
101.9

98.5
100.6
102.1

97.5
100.0
101.6

I960...
1961...
1962...

105.1
104.3
110.6

104.3
107.1
111.1

103.9
108.8
112.9

104.3
109.7
114.9

104.4
107.5
112.4

1960...
1961...
1962...

102.6
104.3
105.5

103.1
104.5
105.6

103.5
104.5
105.8

104.0
105.1
106.3

133. 3
104.6
105.8

1963...
1964...
1965...

114.4
119.2
121.6

114.8
119.9
122.6

116.4
123.9
124.3

117.5
120.2
125.8

115.8
120.0
123.6

1963...
1964...
1965...

106.7
108.2
110.2

107.0
108.5
110.7

107.2
109.1
111.0

107.8
109.6
111.5

107.2
11)8.8
110.9

1966...
1967...

127.3
128.3

127.7
129.6

127.6
130.6

129.0
131.1

127.9
129.9

1966...
1967...

112.4
116.2

113.5
116.9

114.5
118.1

115.4
119.4

113.9
117.6

224. DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN CURRENT
DOLLARS
2

(ANN. RATEI BIL. DOL.)

AVERAGE

...

225. DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN CONSTANT (1958)
2

DOLLARS (ANN. RATE, BIL. DOL.)

AVERAGE

1945...
1946...
1947...

...
153.3
167.1

...
157.4
165.1

162^9
172.4

...
166.5
174.9

150.2
160.0
169.8

1945...
1946...
1947...

...
233.4
219.3

...
235.6
215.0

...
223.7
220.2

21711
217.8

229.7
227.0
218.0

1948...
1949...
1950...

180.3
189.0
202.2

187.8
188.3
201.5

194.4
187.9
209.0

194.2
189.4
214.7

189.1
188.6
206.9

1948...
1949...
1950...

222.4
229.7
248.7

229.1
230.2
246.7

233.3
231.1
250.3

234.0
232.7
252.9

229.8
230.8
249.6

1951...
1952...
1953...

220.8
231.7
249.2

226.0
234.4
253.4

227.9
240.9
253.8

231.2
245.8
254.0

226.6
238.3
252.6

1951...
1952...
1953...

251.2
257.4
273.0

256.3
260.2
276.9

257.5
265.9
275.9

257.7
269.5
276.1

255.7
263.3
275.4

1954...
1955...
1956...

255.3
266.2
286.4

254.7
272.6
290.7

257.3
278.9
294.6

262.4
283.2
300.8

257.4
275.3
293.2

1954...
1955...
1956...

275.7
287.4
305.9

275.1
294.4
308.3

278.5
300.2
309.2

284.3
304.5
314.0

278.3
296.7
309.3

1957...
1958...
1959...

303.8
312.2
331.2

307.4
314.5
337.9

311.6
321.8
337.9

311.7
326.7
342.1

308.5
318.8
337.3

1957...
1958...
1959...

314.2
313.5
329.3

315.9
314.5
334.9

317.7
321.5
332.6

316.5
325.7
335.4

315.8
318.8
333.0

1960...
1961...
1962...

346.6
354.8
378.9

350.4
360.6
384.0

352.1
366.9
386.9

351.7
374.7
390.8

350.0
364.4
385.3

1960...
1961...
1962...

338.8
341.8
362.6

341.2
347.7
366.8

341.8
352.8
368.5

339.5
359.6
371.1

340.2
350.7
367.3

1963...
1964...
1965...

396.7
423.9
455.9

400.7
435.8
464.7

406.9
443.1
480.8

414.1
449.6
491.6

404.6
438.1
473.2

1963...
1964...
1965...

375.7
396.6
421.3

378.0
406.2
427.1

383.1
412.6
441.1

388.1
417.0
449.8

381.3
407.9
435.0

1966...
1967...

499.9
534.4

506.0
541.6

515.9
550.3

525.6
559.8

511.9
546.5

1966...
1967...

453.5
471.6

454.7
476.0

461.2
479.4

466.1
483.7

458.9
477.7

•'•See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
Historical data for these series have not previously been shown.

106




(AUGUST 1969)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. Seethe "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol <g) (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Quarterly

Quarterly
Year

1

II

III

Annual
IV

226. PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN
CURRENT DOLLARS ( A N N . RATEi DOLLARS)

...
...

Year

AVERAGE

1

II

III

IV

227. PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN
CONSTANT ( 1 9 5 8 ) DOLLARS ( A N N . RATE, DOLLARS)

Annual

AVERAGE

1945...
1946...
1947...

1,167

...
...
1,148

...
...
1,193

...
...
1.2C5

1,074
1,132
1,178

1945...
1946...
1947...

...
...
1,532

...
• ••
1,495

...
...
1,524

...
...
1,501

1,642
1,606
1,513

1948...
1949...
1950...

1,237
1,274
1,340

1,283
1,265
1,331

1,323
1,257
1,375

1,315
1,261
1,406

1,290
1,264
1,364

1948...
1949...
195C...

1,526
1,549
1,649

1,566
1,546
1,630

1,587
1,546
1,646

1,585
1,549
1,656

1,567
1,547
1,646

1951...
1952...
1953...

1,440
1,485
1,571

1,468
1,496
1,591

,474
,531
,587

1,488
1,555
1,581

1,469
1,518
1,583

1951...
1952...
1953...

1,638
1,650
1,721

1,665
1,661
1,739

1,665
1,690
1,725

1,658
1,705
1,718

1,657
1,678
1,726

1954...
1955...
1956...

1,582
1,621
1,713

1,572
1,653
1,732

,581
,683
,747

1,6C4
1,701
1,775

1,585
1,666
1,743

1954...
1955...
1956...

1,708
1,750
1,830

1,698
1,785
1,837

1,711
1,812
1,833

1,738
1,829
1,853

1,714
1,795
1,839

1957...
1958...
1959...

1,785
1,803
1,881

1,799
1,810
1,912

I t 81.5
1,844
1,904

1,8C7
1,863
1,919

1,801
1,831
1,905

1957...
1958...
1959...

1,846
1,811
1,870

1,848
1,810
1,895

1,850
1,842
1,874

1,835
1,857
1,881

1,844
1,831
1,881

I960...
1961...
1962...

1,929
1,942
2,041

1,943
1,966
2,061

1,944
1,992
2,068

1,933
2,026

2,081

1,937
1,983
2,064

1960...
1961...
1962...

1,885
1,871
1,953

1,892
1,896
1,969

1,887
1,916
1,970

1,866
1,944
1,976

1,883
1,909
1,968

1963...
1964...
1965...

2,105
2,217
2,353

2,119
2,272
2,392

2,144
2,302
2,466

2,173
2,327
2,513

2,136
2,280
2,432

1963...
1964...
1965...

1,994
2,175

1,999
2,118
2,198

2,018
2,143
2,263

2,037

2,075

2,158
2,300

2,013
2,123
2,235

1966...
1967...

2,549
2,694

2,574
2,724

2,616
2,760

2,656
2,799

2,599
2,745

1966...
1967...

2,313
2,378

2,313
2,394

2,339
2,404

2,356
2,419

2,331
2,399

230. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES t TOTAL, IN
CURRENT DOLLARS ( A N N . RATE, B I L . DOL. )
1945...
1946...
1947...

...
134.3
155.0

...
139.3
158.9

...
147.9
162.5

152II

1948...
1949...
1950...

169.1
175.4
181.7

172.8
176.8
185.8

175.7
176.2
199.4

1951...
1952...
1953...

207.5

210.4
228.4

202.9
214.6
230.1

1954...
1955...
1956...

232.3
247.7
262.0

1957...
1958...
1959...

AVERAGE

231. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, TOTAL, IN
CONSTANT (1958) DOLLARS ( A N N . RATE, B I L . DOL.)

...
...

166.5

119.7
143.4
160.7

1945...
1946...
1947...

176.6
178.8
197.0

173.6
176.8
191.0

1948...
1949...
1950...

205.4
216.7
231.0

209.2
225.0
230.3

206.3

1951...
1952...
1953...

236.0
233.7

230.0

234.6
252.7
264.4

237.3
256.8
267.5

241.8
260.4
272.8

236.5
254.4
266.7

277.2
284.5
304.0

279.3
287.4
309.8

283.8
292.2

285.4
296.2

314.8

316.3

1960...
1961...
1962...

321.1
328.4
348.3

326.3
332.3
351.7

325.9
336.7
357.2

327.7

1963...
1964...
1965...

368.2
391.7
419.8

372.0
397.6
427.9

378.3
406.6
436.3

1966...
1967...

457.8
480.9

461.9

471.2

489.8

495.7

Note:

...
...

...
...

...
...

203.4

207.0

207.4

207.3

203.5
206.3

208.5

210.7
216.3
227.6

211.1
216.8
238.8

212.8
219.7
232.1

210.8
216.5
230.5

230.0
238.1
251.5

232.0

250.1

239.1
251.1

233.3
246.8
250.4

232.8
239.4
250.8

1954...
1955...
1956...

250.8
267.6
279.8

253.3
273.0
280.3

256.9
276.3
280.8

261.9
279.9
284.7

255.7
274.2

281.4
290.1
311.2

1957...
1958...
1959...

286.6
285.6
302.3

287.0
287.5
307.0

289.3

288.2

291.9

289.7
295.2

309.9

310.0

290.1
307.3

325.2
335.2

355.1

1960...
1961...
1962...

313.8
316.2
333.3

317.7
320.4
335.7

316.4
323.9
340.1

316.4
329.5
344.6

316.1
322.5
338.4

375.0
401.2
432.8

1963...
1964...
1965...

348.5
366.3
387.9

350.9
370.7
393.4

356.1

408.9
447.4

378.6
400.3

357.7
379.3
409.2

353.3
373.7
397.7

474.5
502.6

466.3
492.3

1966...
1967..,

415.3
424.4

415.1
430.5

421.3
431.9

420.7
434.3

418.1
430.3

343.1
363.0
381.5

216.7

Historical data for these series have not previously been shown.




AVERAGE

213.2
223.5

183.0

281.4

(AUGUST 1969)

107

C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.

Quarterly

Quarterly
Year

1

II

Ill

IV

232. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION E X P E N D I T U R E S ! DURABLE
GOODS f IN CURRENT DOLLARS ( A N N . RATE, B I L . DOL. )

Annual

AVERAGE

Year

1

II

III

IV

233. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, DURABLE
GOODS EXCEPT AUTOMOBILES, I N CURRENT DOLLARS
(ANN. RATE, BIL. DOL.)

Annual

AVERAGE

1945...
1946...
1947...

...
12.6
19.3

...
14.7
19.9

...
17.0
20.4

8.0
15.8
20.4

1945...
1946...
1947...

...

...

...

21.9

15.0

15^2

16.0

16.7

...
15.7

1948...
',949...
L95J...

21.9
22.5
27.4

22.3
24.4
27.9

23.4
25.3
35.3

23.1
26.3
31.4

22.7
24.6
3li.5

1948...
1949...
1950...

16.1
15.5
17.3

17.0
15.6
17.3

17.4
16.2
22.4

16.5
17.1
19.4

16.7
16.1
19.1

1951...
1952...
1953...

33.6
28.8
33.5

28.6
29.1
33.5

28.1
27.5
33.4

28.3
32.0
32.6

29.6
29.3
33.2

1951...
1952...
1953...

21.7
19.7
20.9

18.5
19.7
20.8

18.9
20.0
20.7

19.6
20.9
20.5

19.7
20.1
20.7

1954...
1955...
1956...

32.0
37.4
38.5

32.5
39.6
38.6

32.5
41.4
38.4

34.2
40.1
40.2

32.8
39.6
38.9

1954...
1955...
1956...

2'J.3
22.4
24.0

20.4
22.8
24.9

20.8
23.7
25.0

21.5
23.8
25.4

20.7
23.2
24.8

1957...
1958...
1959...

41.4
37,9
42.8

40.9
36.8
45.0

40.6
37.7
45.8

40.2
39.1
43.6

40.8
37.9
44.3

1957...
1958...
1959...

25.2
24.9
26.7

25.0
24.5
27.8

25.5
25.4
28.3

24.8
26.0
28.7

25.1
25.2
27.9

I960...
1961...
1962...

45.9
41.9
48.5

46.1
43.4
48.5

45.3
44.8
50.1

43.8
46.6
51.1

45.3
44.2
49.5

I960...
1961...
1962...

28.3
27.5
30.5

28.5
28.5
30.1

28.0
29.1
31.1

27.8
30. C
31.4

28.1
28.8
30.8

1963...
1964...
1965...

52.4
57.9
65.4

53.2
59.6
64.4

54.5
60.7
66.5

55.6
58.7
68.9

53.9
59.2
66.3

1963...
1964...
1965...

32.1
36.2
39.0

32.7
37.6
39.1

33.8
37.9
40.9

34.6
38.4
43.1

33.3
37.5
40.5

1966...
1967...

71.2
73.0

68.5
73.5

71.3
73.3

71.9
75.2

70.8
73.0

1966...
1967...

44.4
46.9

44.5
47.6

46.2
47.9

46.5
50. 0

45.4
48.1

isli

234. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION E X P E N D I T U R E S , AUTOMOBILES,
TN CURRENT DOLLARS (ANN. RATE, B I L . DOL.)
1945...
1946...
1947...

4.3

4.7

4.4

1948...
1949...
1950...

5.8
7.0
10.1

5.3
8.8
10.6

6,0
9.1
12.9

1951...
1952...
1953...

11.9
9.1
12.6

10.1
9.4
12.7

1954...
1955...
1956...

11.7
15.0
14.5

1957...
1958...
1959...

AVERAGE

236. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION E X P E N D I T U R E S , NONDURABLE
GOODS, IN CURRENT DOLLARS ( A N N . RATE, B I L . DOL.)

AVERAGE

5.2

...
...
4.7

1945...
1946...
1947...

78^6
87.3

80^2
89.7

84.8
91.6

85.9
93.2

71.9
82.4
90.5

6.6
9.2
12.0

5.9
8.5
11.4

1948...
1949...
1950...

94.7
96.0
94.6

96.6
95.0
96.2

96.7
93.2
100.8

96.9
94.0
109.8

96.2
94.5
98.1

9.2
7,5
12.7

8.7
11.1
12.1

10.0
9.3
12.5

1951...
1952...
1953...

107.6
110.8
117.2

107.0
113.0
117.2

109.0
115.1
116.5

111.4
117.0
116.3

108. U
114.0
116.8

12.1
16.8
13.7

11.7
17.7
13.4

12.7
16.3
14.8

12.0
16.5
14.1

1954...
1955...
1956...

117.4
120.8
127.6

117.4
122.6
128.5

118.4
123.7
129.8

119.8
126.1
131.2

118.3
123.3
129.3

16.2
13.0
16.1

15.9
12.3
17.2

15.1
12.3
17.5

15.4
13.1
14.9

15.7
12.7
16.5

1957...
1958...
1959...

132.9
137.8
144.4

134.3
139.3
145.7

137.7
141.2
147.3

137.4
142.3
149.1

135.6
140.2
146.6

1960...
1961...
1962...

17.6
14.4
18.0

17.6
14.9
18.4

17.3
15.7
19.0

16.0
16.6
19.7

17.1
15.4
18.8

I960...
1961...
1962...

149.4
154.1
160.2

152.0
154.7
161.6

151.3
156.1
163.2

152.5
158.7
165.3

151.3
155.9
162.6

1963...
1964...
1965...

20.3
21.7
26.4

20.5
22.0
25.3

20.7
22.8
25.6

21. G
20.3
25.8

20.6
21.7
25.8

1963...
1964...
1965...

167.1
174.6
184.4

168.0
175.9
189.7

169.9
181.3
192.4

169.6
182.9
197.8

168.6
178.7
191.1

1966...
1967...

26.8
23.1

24.0
25.9

25.1
25.4

25.4
25.2

25.3
24.9

1966...
1967...

202.6
213.2

206.4
214.4

209.6
215.8

209.1
216.8

206.9
215.1

Note:

108

...

Historical data for these series have not previously been shown.




(AUGUST

1969)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Quarterly

Quarterly
Year

237.

1

Annual
II

III

Year

IV

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, SERVICES,
IN CURRENT DOLLARS (ANN. R A T E , BIL. DOL.)

AVERAGE

2*40.

1

Annual
II

III

IV

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT, TOTAL

(ANN. RATE, BIL. DOL.)

AVERAGE

1945...
1946...
1947...

...
43.1
48.3

...
44.4
49.3

...
46.1
50.4

*..
47.5
51.3

39.8
45.3
49.8

1945...
1946...
1947...

...
24.5
32.8

...
31.5
31.6

31.7

...
33.9
39.8

10.6
30.6
34.0

1948...
1949...
1950...

52.6
56.9
59.8

54.0
57.5
61.7

55.6
57.7
63.4

56.5
58.5
64.8

54,7
57.6
62.4

1948...
1949...
1950...

43.4
39.6
44.0

46.2
33.1
50.8

48.1
36.2
55.8

46.3
33.8
65.8

46.0
35.7
54.1

1951...
1952...
1953...

66.3
70.9
77.8

67.3
72.5
79.5

68.4
74.2
81.1

69.5
76.0
81.4

67.9
73.4
79.9

1951...
1952...
1953...

61.0
54.2
54.2

64.1
47.4
55.4

58.8
50.9
53.2

53.4
55.1
47.5

59.3
51.9
52.6

1954...
1955...
1956...

82.9
89.5
95.8

84.6
90.4
97.4

86.3
91.7
99.3

87.7
94.2
101.4

85.4
91.4
98.5

1954...
1955...
1956...

48.7
62.3
69.9

49.7
66.9
69.4

51.9
69.0
70.3

56.6
71.3
70.4

51.7
67.4
70.9

1957...
1958...
1959...

102.8
108.9
116.8

104.1
111.3
119.1

105.6
113.3
121.7

107.8
114.7
123.6

105.0
112.0
120.3

1957...
1958...
1959...

68.5
57.3
72.1

68.5
55.7
80.4

70.4
61.4
72.2

64.0
68.8
77.2

67.8
60.9
75.3

196)...
1961...
1962...

125.7
132.4
139.6

128.1
134.2
141.6

129.3
135.8
144.0

131.4
137.8
146.7

128.7
135.1
143.0

I960...
1961...
1962...

82.5
64.3
80.6

76.0
70.2
82.8

73.5
74.2
84.3

67.6
77.9
84.7

74.8
71.7
83.0

1963...
1964...
1965...

148.7
159.2
170.0

150.8
162.1
173.8

153.9
164.6
177.4

156.3
167.3
180.7

152.4
163.3
175.5

1963...
1964...
1965...

82.7
90.8
105.3

85.1
93.4
105.3

88.0
94.2
108.7

92.9
97.9
113.2

87.1
94.0
108.1

1966...
1967...

183.9
197.7

186.9
201.8

190.2
206.6

193.5
210.6

188.6
204.2

1966...
1967...

117.5
113.6

122.4
109.4

119.6
117.7

126.2
123.3

121.4
116.0

241.

GROSS P R I V A T E DOMESTIC FIXED INVESTMENT, TOTAL
NONRESIDENTIAL (ANN. RATE, BIL. DOL.)

1945...
1946...
1947...

13ll
22.9

15l7
23.1

1948...
1949...
1950...

26.1
26.6
24.4

26.1
25.7
26.7

1951...
1952...
1953...

31.0
32.3
33.6

1954...
1955...
1956...

AVERAGE

32.1*5

242.
GROSS P R I V A T E DOMESTIC FIXED INVESTMENT,
NONRESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES (ANN. RATE, BIL. DOL.)

AVERAGE

23.2

2ol7
24.4

10.1
17.0
23.4

1945...
1946...
1947...

...
5.6
7.3

6.8
7.3

...
7.3
7.6

...
7.4
7.7

2.8
6.8
7.5

27.1
24.3
29.8

28.2
23.8
30.7

26.9
25.1
27.9

1948...
1949...
195C...

8.1
9.0
8.4

8.7
8.7
8.8

9.2
8.2
9.5

9.4
8.0
10.3

8.8
8.5
9.2

31.8
32.7
33.9

32.4
29.6
34.7

32.0
31.9
34.4

31.8
31.6
34.2

1951...
1952...
1953...

10.7
11.2
12.2

11.4
11.3
12.6

11.5
11.4
12.8

11.1
11.8
13.0

11.2
11.4
12.7

33.5
34.4
42.0

33.5
36.9
43.1

33.8
39.5
44.7

33.8
41.7
45.0

33.6
38.1
43.7

1954...
1955...
1956...

13.1
13.5
16.5

13.0
14.0
17.0

13.1
14.6
17.7

13.1
15.2
17.8

13.1
14.3
17.2

1957...
1958...
1959...

45.9
43.0
43.0

46.0
41.2
45.2

47.2
40.5
46.2

46.3
41.7
46. C

46.4
41.6
45.1

1957...
1958...
1959...

17.8
17.3
16.0

18.1
16.7
16.6

18.1
16.1
17.1

17.9
16.2
17.0

18.0
16.6
16.7

I960...
1961...
1962...

47.8
46.0
49.5

49.0
46.0
51.3

48.4
47.5
53.1

48.4
48.6
52.7

48.4
47.0
51.7

I960...
1961...
1962...

18.2
18.4
18.5

17.9
18.3
19.2

17.8
18.4
19.7

18.6
18.4
19.5

18.1
18.4
19.2

1963...
1964...
1965...

52.0
58.3
67.1

53.5
60.1
69.5

55.0
62.4
72.4

56.8
63.4
76.2

54.3
61.1
71.3

1963...
1964...
1965...

18.8
20.4
23.4

19.7
21.1
25.1

19.4
21.4
25.8

19.9
21.8
27.8

19.5
21.2
25.5

1966...
1967...

78.8
83.3

80.3
83.0

83.0
83.5

84.2
85.0

81.6
83.7

1966...
1967...

28.6
29.0

28.2
27.2

29.0
27.8

28.2
27.8

28.5
27.9

Note:

isli

Historical data for these series have not previously been shown.




(AUGUST 1969)

109

C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Quarterly

Quarterly
Year

1

II

III

IV

243.
GROSS P R I V A T E DOMESTIC FIXED INVESTMENT,
PRODUCERS' DURABLE EQUIPMENT (ANN. RATE, BIL. D O L . ) 1

Annual

AVERAGE

Year

1

Annual
II

III

IV

244. GROSS P R I V A T E DOMESTIC FIXED INVESTMENT.
RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES (ANN. RATE, BIL. DOL.ji 1

1945...
1946...
1947...

...
7.5
15.5

...
8.9
15.7

...
11.1
15.6

...
13.4
16.7

7.3
10.2
15.9

1945...
1946...
1947...

5^5
9.5

7^0
9.5

1948...
1949...
1950...

18.0
17.6
15.9

17.4
17.0
17.9

17.9
16.1
20.3

18.8
15.7
20.4

18.1
16.6
18.7

1948...
1949...
195C...

14.0
13.0
17.2

1951...
1952...
1953...

20.2
21.1
21.4

20.5
21.4
21.3

20.9
18.2
21.9

20.9
20.1
21.3

20.7
20.2
21.5

1951...
1952...
1953...

1954...
1955...
1956...

20.4
20.9
25.6

20.4
23.0
26.1

20.7
24.9
27.0

20.7
26.5
27.2

20.6
23.8
26.5

1957...
1958...
1959...

28.1
25.7
27.0

28.0
24.5
28.7

29.1
24.4
29.1

28.3
25.5
29.0

1960...
1961...
1962...

29.6
27.6
31.0

31.2
27.7
32.1

30.6
29.0
33.5

1963...
1964...
1965...

33.2
37.9
43.7

33.8
39.0
44.4

1966...
1967...

50.2
54.2

52.1
55.8

AVERAGE

•..
8.0
11.3

l\5
13.9

1.5
7.2
11.1

15.0
12.8
19.3

14.9
13.6
21.1

13.8
15.3
20.0

14.4
13.7
19.4

19.5
16.7
18.2

17.1
17.1
18.3

16.0
17.1
17.8

16.3
17.8
17.6

17.2
17.2
18.0

1954...
1955...
1956...

17.8
23.3
21.8

18.9
23.9
22.0

20.3
23.5
21.5

21.6
22.5
21.1

19.7
23.3
21.6

28.4
25.0
28.4

1957...
1958...
1959...

20.5
19.7
25.3

20.1
19.5
26.1

20.0
20.8
25.6

20.0
23.0
24.8

20.2
20.8
25.5

29.8
30.3
33.2

30.3
28.6
32.5

1960...
1961...
1962...

24.7
21.7
24.4

23.1
22.1
25.4

22.0
22.9
26.0

21.6
23.8
25.6

22.8
22.6
25.3

35.5
41.0
46.6

36.8
41.6
48.3

34.8
39.9
45.8

1963...
1964...
1965...

26.1
27.6
27.4

26.8
27.1
27.0

27.1
27.0
27.2

28.0
26.8
27.4

27.0
27.1
27.2

54.0
55.7

56.0
57.2

53.1
55.7

1966...
1967...

27.4
21.4

26.0
23.1

24.7
26.5

22.1
28.8

25.0
25.0

245.
GROSS P R I V A T E DOMESTIC INVESTMENT, CHANGE
IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES AFTER VALUATION ADJUSTMENT,
ALL INDUSTRIES (ANN. R A T E , BIL. DOL.) 2 -

AVERAGE

250.
NET EXPORTS OF GOODS AND
TRANSFERS UNDER M I L I T A R Y GRANTS

SERVICES, EXCLUDING1
(ANN. RATE jBlL.DOL.)

••.

AVERAGE

1945.. .~
1946...
1947...

...
5.9
0.4

...
8.8
-1.0

...
6.1
-2.7

...
4.7
1.4

-1.0
6.4
-0.5

1945...
1946...
1947...

...
6.8
11.5

...
7.6
12.0

8.8
12.5

...
6.8
10.1

-0.6
7.5
11.5

1948...
1949...
1950...

3.3
0.0
2.4

5.1
-5.3
4.8

6.1
-1.7
4.9

4.3
-5.3
15.1

4.7
-3.1
6.8

1948...
1949...
1950...

8.2
7.4
3.1

6.2
7.2
2.6

5.9
6.1
0.5

5.5
3.8
1.0

6.4
6.1
1.8

1951...
1952...
1953...

10.5
5.2
2.4

15.2
-2.3
3.2

10.4
4.3
0.7

5.1
5.4
-4.5

10.3
3.1
0.4

1951...
1952...
1953...

1.1
4.8
0.5

3.1
3.0
0.1

5.0
1.1
0.3

5.5
0.0
0.6

3.7
2.2
0.4

1954...
1955...
1956...

-2.5
4.6
6.0

-2.7
6.1
4.3

-2.2
6.0
4.1

1.3
7.1
4.3

-1.5
6.0
4.7

1954...
1955...
1956...

1.1
2.8
2.3

1.7
1.6
3.8

1.9
2.0
4.1

2.7
1.6
5.6

1.8
2.0
4.0

1957...
1958...
1959...

2.1
-5.4
3.9

2.3
-5.1
9.1

3.2
0.1
0.4

-2.2
4.1
6.3

1.3
-1.5
4.8

1957...
1958...
1959...

6.6
2.6
0.2

6.3
2.4
-0.8

5.5
2.4
0.4

4.5
1.4
0.7

5.7
2.2
0.1

i960...
1961...
1962...

9.9
-3.5
6.7

3.9
2.1
6.1

3.1
3.8
5.2

-2.4
5.5
6.4

3.6
2.0
6.0

1960...
1961...
1962...

2.4
6.6
4.6

3.5
5.6
5.7

4.3
4.9
5.3

6.0
5.3
4.9

4.0
5.6
5.1

1963...
1964...
1965...

4.7
4.8
10.9

4.8
6.1
8.9

6.0
4.8
9.1

8.1
7.7
9.7

5.9
5.8
9.6

1963...
1964...
1965...

4.6
8.9
6.2

6.2
7.8
8.1

5.6
8.7
7.3

7.1
8.5
6.0

5.9
8.5
6.9

1966...
1967...

11.3
9.0

16.2
3.4

11.9
7.8

19.9
9.5

14.8
7.4

1966...
1967...

6.2
5.4

5.6
5.8

4.4
5.6

4.9
3.8

5.3
5.2

Historical data for these series have not previously been shown.
2
Data are revised beginning with 1966.

110




(AUGUST 1969)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised' recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol <§) (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.

Quarterly

Quarterly
Year

1

III

II

IV

252. EXPORTS OF GOODS AND S E R V I C E S , E X C L U D I N G
TRANSFERS U N D E R M I L I T A R Y GRANTS ( A N N . R A T E , B I L . D O L . )

Annual

Year

1

253.

AVERAGE

Annual

IV

III

II

IMPORTS OF GOODS AND S E R V I C E S
(ANN. R A T E , B I L . DOL.)

AVERAGE

1945...
1946...
1947...

...
13.6
19.3

...
14.8
20.5

16.1
20.4

18.7

7.2
14.7
19.7

1945...
1946...
1947...

...
6.8
7.8

7^2
8.5

...
7.3
7.9

...
7.6
8.7

7.9
7.2
8.2

1948...
1949...
1950...

18.1
17.4
13.0

16.5
17.0
13.2

16.7
15.5
13.9

15.9
13.3
15.1

16.8
15.8
13.8

1948...
1949...
1950...

9.9
10.0
9.9

10.3
9.7
10.6

10.8
9.3
13.5

10.4
9.4
14.1

10.3
9.6
12.0

1951...
1952...
1953...

16.4
20.2
16.7

18.8
18.2
16.9

19.7
16.8
17.2

20.0
16.8
16.9

18.7
18.0
16.9

1951...
1952...
1953...

15.4
15.4
16.2

15.7
15.1
16.8

14.8
15.7
16.9

14.4
16.8
16.3

15.1
15.8
16.6

1954...
1955...
1956...

16.3
19.5
21.9

18.3
19.0
23.3

17.6
20.1
24.2

18.7
20.5
25.0

17.8
19.8
23.6

1954...
1955...
1956...

15.3
16.7
19.6

16.6
17.4
19.4

15.8
18.1
20.0

16.1
18.9
19.4

15.9
17.8
19.6

1957...
1958...
1959...

27.5
22.9
22.4

27.1
23.0
22.7

26.2
23.0
24.4

25.2
23.3
24.4

26.5
23.1
23.5

1957...
1958...
1959...

20.9
20.3
22.2

20.8
20.6
23.4

20.7
20.7
24.0

20.6
21.9
23.7

20.8
20.9
23.3

I960...
1961...
1962...

26.1
28.6
29.2

27.4
27.8
30.9

27.5
28.5
30.6

28.0
29.4
30.4

27.2
28.6
30.3

I960...
1961...
1962...

23.7
22.0
24.6

23.9
22.2
25.2

23.3
23.6
25.3

21.9
24.0
25.6

23.2
23.0
25.1

1963...
1964...
1965...

30,1
36.5
35.2

32.4
36.1
40.8

32.5
37.5
40.3

34.3
38.3
40.5

32.3
37.1
39.2

1963...
1964...
1965...

25.5
27.6
29.0

26.2
28.3
32.7

26.9
28.8
33.0

27.1
29.8
34.5

26.4
28.6
32.3

1966...
1967...

42.2
45.8

42.7
45.9

43.7
46.3

44.8
46.7

43.4
46.2

1966...
1967...

36.0
40.4

37.1
40.1

39.3
40.7

39.9
42.8

38.1
41.0

260.

lili

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND S E R V I C E S ,
TOTAL ( A N N . RATE, B I L . D O L . )

AVERAGE

262.

F E D E R A L G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S OF GOODS AND
S E R V I C E S , TOTAL ( A N N . R A T E , B I L . D O L . )

AVERAGE

74.2
17.2
12.5

I t 947...

...
30.9
24.2

...
25.6
25.1

25^0
25.2

...
26.4
25.8

82.3
27.0
25.1

1945...
1946...
1947...

...
22.2
12.4

...
16.3
12.9

...
14.9
12.4

...
15.5
12.4

1948...
1949...
19<50...

27.3
36.1
37.2

30.3
38.0
36.2

32.8
38.5
37.4

35.6
38.6
40.7

31.6
37.8
37.9

1948...
1949...
1950...

13.5
19.4
18.4

15.7
20.6
17.1

17.3
20.3
17.7

19.5
20.1
20.5

1951...
1952...
1953...

48.5
70. C
81.0

55.6
74.1
81.9

63.6
76.9
81.2

68.7
77.6
82.3

59.1
74.7
81.6

1951...
1952...
1953...

27.8
47.8
56.9

34.3
51.1
57.8

41.8
54.1
56.5

46.7
54.2
56.9

37.7
51.8
57.0

1954...
1955...
1956...

78.6
73.4
76.4

74.3
73.2
78.5

73.7
74.6
78.7

72.4
75.5
80.7

75.0
74.2
78.6

1954...
1955...
1956...

52.3
44.0
44.5

47.4
43.3
45.8

45.7
44.4
45.3

44.1
44.7
46.6

47.4
44.1
45.6

1957...
1958...
1959...

84.6
90.2
97.7

85.8
92.8
97.5

86.6
95.4
96.6

87.5
98.0
96.4

86.1
94.2
97.0

1957...
1958...
1959...

49.3
51.3
54.6

49.6
52.9
54.1

49.7
54.3
53.1

49.6
55.9
52.9

49.5
53.6
53.7

1960...
1961...
1962...

97.0
104.3
114.4

98.8
106.7
117.0

100.4
108.4
117.4

101.9
111.3
119.3

99.6
107.6
117.1

1960...
1961...
1962...

52.7
55.4
61.9

53.0
57.3
64.0

53.9
57.8
63.3

54.6
59.2
64.4

53.5
57.4
63.4

1963...
1964...
1965...

121.9
126.4
131.5

120.9
129.2
134.4

122.9
129.4
138.9

124.3
129.8
143.3

122.5
128.7
137.0

1963...
1964...
1965...

65.0
65.0
64.4

63.4
66.0
65.5

64.2
65.2
67.6

64.4
64.5
70.1

64.2
65.2
66.9

1966...
1967...

148.0
174.2

153.4
178.5

160.7
181.3

165.2
186.4

156.8
180.1

1966...
1967...

72.8
87.8

75.6
90.3

80.5
91.3

82.1
93.5

77.8
90.7

1945...
) 9 4 6 r ?.

Note:

16.5
. 20.1
18.4

Historical data for these series have not previously been shown.




(AUGUST 1969)

111

E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1961
Duration in months

Trough

Cycle

Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)

Business cycle reference dates

Expansion
(trough to
peak)

Trough from
previous
trough

Peak from
previous
peak

Peak

December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879

June 1857
.October 1860
.April 1865
June 1869
October 1873
.March 1882

May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900

(x)
18
8
32
13
65

30
22
46
15
34
36

(x)
48
30
78
36
99

(x)
40
54
50
52
101

March 1887
July 1890
January 1893
. December 1895
June 1899
September 1902 .

38
13
10
17
18
18

22
27
20
18
24
21

74
35
37
37
36
42

60
40
30
35
42
39

August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921

.May 1907

23
13
24
23
7
18

33
19
12
44
10
22

44
46
43
35
51
28

56
32
36
67
17
40

July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938.
October 1945 .
October 1949

• October 1926
August 1929 .

14
13
43
13
8
11

27
21
50
80
37
45

36
40
64
63
88
Z8

41
34
93
93
75
56

13
~9
9

35
25

48
34

(x)

58
44
34

Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961 .
10 cycles, 1919-1961 .
4 cycles, 1945-1961..

19
15
10

30
35
36

49
50
46

Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961 .
8 cycles, 1919-1%1 . .
3 cycles, 1945-1961 . .

20
16
10

26
28
32

45
45
42

August 1954
April 1958
February 1961

• January 1910
January 1913
August 1918
January 1920
May 1923

.May 1937

February 1945
November 1948
July 1953
July 1957
May 1960

(x)
149
54
3
46
2

4
5
6

46
48
42

NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean War), the postwar contractions,and
the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.

^5 cycles, 1857-1960?
9 cycles, 1920-1960.

2

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

112



3
4
4

cycles, 1945-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.

5

7 cycles, 1920-1960.
63cyc|eSf 1945-1960.

INDEX

Series Finding Guide
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
Current issue
(page numbers)

Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Charts

Tables

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
descriptions
(issue date)

A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

GNP in current dollars .
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars

:
National income, current dollars
10
Personal income, current dollars
10
Disposable personal income, current dol. . .10
Disposable personal income, constant dol. . 10
Per capita disposable personal income,
10
current dollars "~^ ~
227. Per capita disposable personal income,
constant dollars
...... 10

220.
222.
224.
225.
226.

(July'68# *200. GNP in current dollars
9,21,38
6,64,70
9,21,38,56 6,64,70,86
<July'68# *205. GNP in 1958 dollars
*47. Industrial production
21,38,62 6,70,98
*52. Personal income
6,70
21,38
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr . . .21
6,70
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales
6,70
22,38
57. Final sales
22
6,70
July '69
*54. Sales of retail stores
22,38
6,70

"\July'68#
>Jan. '69
/Aug. '69
July '69
July '69

5,64
5,64
5,64
5,64

Aug.
Aug.

5,64

Aug.

'69

5,64

Aug.

'69

July '69
'69
'69

230 Total current dollars
231. Total, constant dollars

11
11
11
Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars . 11
Automobiles, current dollars
11
Nondurable goods, current dollars
11
Services, current dollars
11

5,65
5,65
5,65
5,65
5,55
5,65
5,65

Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.

'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69

5,65
5,65
5,65
5,65
5,65

5,65,73

Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.

'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69

13,47
13,49
13,49

5,66,82
5,66,82
5,66,82

Aug.
Aug.
Aug.

'69
'69
'69

253. Imports 'of goods and services
Federal, State, and local governments
Federal Government
National defense
State and local governments

14
14
14,53
14

5,66
5,66

Aug.
Aug.

5,66,84

July '68#

15

5,66
5,66
5,66

15

5,66

Compensation of employees
16
Proprietors' income
16
Rental income of persons
16
Corp. profits and inventory valuation adj . .16
Net interest
16

5,66
5,66
5,66
5,67
5,67

24
24
24
24
24,36

6,71
6,71
6,72
6,72
6,72

Aug. '67
Sep. '68
May '67
May '68
June '68

6,72
6,72

7,72,78

Sep.
Aug.
Nov.

'68
'67
'68

Nov.

'68

7,72

Sep.

'68#

Sep.

'68#

Unfilled orders, durable goods industries . 25
Backlog of capital approp., manufacturing. 25
Business expend., new plant and equip . .25,39,40
Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures .... 25

245.
*31.
37.
20.
26.

Change in bus. inventories, all indus
Change in mfg. and trade inventories
Purchased materials, higher inventories. .
Change in materials, supplies inventories
Buying policy, production materials

32.
25.
*71.
65.

Vendor performance, slower deliveries. . . 27
Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods
27
Book value, mfg. and trade inventories. . .27,39
Book value, mfrs.' inven., finished goods. 27

98.
85
33
*113.

Change in
Change in
Change in
Change in

money supply and time deposits
money supply
mortgage debt
consumer installment debt

5,67
5,67

14. Liabilities of business failures
39 Del inouencv rate installment loans

5,67
5,67
5,67

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Bl. Employment and Unemployment

*1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg. . . .18,36
*4. Nonagri. placements, all industries
18,36
18
5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance. . 18
3 Layoff rate manufacturing
18

6,68
6,68
6,68
6,68
6,68

Aug.
Mar.
Aug.
Mar.
Aug.

'9. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
19
'' Q !p-wanted advertising
19
^ours in nonagri. establishments .... 19
19,38
^ersons engaged in nonagri. activities . .19
.
inpmDlovrnerU rate total
20,38
*vg. weekly insured unemploy. rate
20
Unemolovrnent rate married males
20
20,39

6,68
6,68

Mar.

6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69

'68
'69
'68
'69
'68

'68
June '69
Aug. '68
June '69
Aug. '68

'69
June '68

June '69

Aug.
Aug.
Mar.
Mar.
Dec.
Mar.
Mar.

Aug.
Aug.

'68#

'68
'69
'69
'67
'69
'69

'Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.




New capital appropriations, manufacturing
New orders, mach. and equip, industries. .
Constr. contracts, com. and indus.
Private nonfarm housing starts

Apr.
Mar.

'68#

Sep.

'68
'68

Sep.

'68

Sep.

'68 . Sep.

'68

Sep.

'68

Apr.
Apr.

'69
'69

Sep.

'68

12,26
26,37
26
26
26

7,65,73

July '68# July '68#
'68
Feb. '69
'68
'68
Sep. '68
'68

7,73
7,73
7,73
7,73

Dec.
Mar.
Sep.
Mar.

7,73
7,73
7,73
7,73

Jan.
Sep.
Jan.
Sep.

7,74

Apr.

'68
'68
'69
'68

Sep.
Feb.
Sep.

'68
'69
'68

28,37
28,37,63
28,37

7,74

'69
Apr. '69
June ' 69 May '69
July '69 July '68

28
28
28,37

7,74
7,74
7,74

Mar.
Nov.

July '69
'69
'68

July '68
Mar. '69
Nov. '68

7,74,85

June '69
June '69

June '69
June '69

7,74
7,74

Dec.

July '69
'68

July '68
Nov. '68

7,74,99

7,74

66. Money and Credit

A9. Saving

290. Gross saving, private and government .... 17
292. Personal saving
17
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
17
296 Capital consumption allowances
17
298. Government surplus or deficit
17

11.
24.
9.
7.

6,71
6,71
6,71
6,71
6,71

55. Wholesale prices, indus. commodities^ . . 29
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods'. . . 29,55
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
29
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
... 29,39

5. National Income Components

?80
282.
7
84.
286.
288.

'69
July '68

Feb.

23,36
23
23,36
23
.23,36

*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
*16. Corporate profits, after taxes
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries
15. Profits per dollar of sales mfg
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg

5,66

15
15

Index of net business formation
New business incorporations
New orders, durable goods industries
Construction contracts, total value
Contracts and orders, plant, equipment. .

'69
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
'69
*23. Industrial materials prices
July '68# July '68#

\7. Final Sales and Inventories

270 Final sales durable goods
271. Change in_ business inventories, durable
goods
>74. Fi nal sales, nondurable goodSi
75. Change in business inventories,
nondurable goods

May '69
July '69
May '69

'68#
'68#
'68
'68
',68

B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment

A6. Gov. Purchases, Goods and Services

260.
262.
264
266

*12
13.
*6.
8.
*10.

96.
97.
*61.
69.

A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment

240. 'Gross private domestic investment, total ,. 12
12
241 Nonresidential fixed investment
12
242 Nonresidential structures
12
243 Producers' durable equipment
12
244 residential structures
12,26
245. Cnange in business inventories

July '68# July
July '68# July
Nov.
Dec. '68
July '69 July
July '69 July

B3. Fixed Capital Investment

V3. Personal Consumption Expenditures

A5. Foreign Trade
250. Net exports of goods and services

Tables

B2. Production, Income, Consumption, Trade

9,21,38
5,64,70
9,21,38,56 5,64,70,86
9
5,64
9
5,64
9
5,64

A2. National and Personal Income

*T?3.
234.
236.
237.

Charts

Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con

Al. Gross National Product

200
205
210
215.
217.

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Aug.

'68#

'68

June '69

30
30
30
30,37

7,75
7,75
7,75
7,75

Aug.
Aug.

'68
'68
Mar. '69
Jan. '69

Aug.
Aug.

30
31
31
31

7,75
7,75
7,75
7,75

June '69
Mar. '68
Feb. '69
June '69

July '64
July '64

32
32
32
32

7,76
7,76
7,76
7,76

Jan.
Apr.

33

7,76
8,76
8,76
8,76
8,76

Jan.
Jan.
Apr.
Jan.
Jan.

'68
'69
'69
'68
'68

34
34
34
35
35
35
35
35

6,77
6,77
6,77
6,77
6,77
6,77
6,77
6,77

Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

'69
'69
«69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69

93
114.
116.
115.

Free reserves
Treasury bill rate
Corporate bond yields
Treasury bond yields

117.
66.
*72.
*67.

Municipal bond yields
32
Consumer installment debt
33
Com. and industrial loans outstanding . . 33,39
.
Bank rates on short-term bus. loans
33,39

'68
'68
June '68
Jan. '68

'68
'68

July '64

July '64.
July '64
July '64
July '64

July '64

B7. Composite Indexes

810.
820.
830
813.
814.
815.
816.

12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj.. .
5 coincident indicators
6 lagging indicators
Marginal employment adjustments
Capital investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing ....
Profitability i

#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.

Nov.
Nov.
Nov.

'68
'68
'68

113

Series Finding Guide-Continued
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
Current issue
(page numbers)

Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Tables

Charts

Series
Historical
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Charts

Tables

Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)

D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS-Con.

C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

03. Federal Government Activities—Con

Cl. Aggregate Series

61
410
412.
414
416.

Bus expend new plant and equip
Manufacturers' sales total
Mfrs.' inventories, book value
Condition of mfrs ' inventories
Adequacy of manufacturers' capacity

25,39,40
41
41
41
41

72,78
78
78
78
78

420.
425.
430
435

Household income compared to year ago. .
Probability of change, household income. .
New cars purchased by households
Index of consumer sentiment

42
42
42
42

616.
621.
647.
648.
625.

Defense Dept. obligations, total
53
Defense Dept. obligations, procurement. . . 53
New orders, defense products industries . .53
New orders, defense products
53
Military contract awards in U.S
53

'68
'68
'68
'68
'68

Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.

'68
'68
'68
'68
'68

78
78
78
78

Mar. '69
Nov. '68

Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.

'68
'68
'68
'68

43
43
43
43

79
79
79
79

Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.

'69
'69
'69
'69

Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.

'68
'68
'68
'68

Level of inventories, mfg. and trade
44
Selling prices, mfg. and trade
44
Selling prices, manufacturing
144
Sell ing prices, wholesale trade
44
Sell ing prices, retail trade
;... 44

79
79
79
79
79

Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.

'69
'69
'69
'69
'69

Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.

'68
'68
'68
'68
'68

El.

80
80
80

Feb. '69
Feb. '69
Feb. '69

Nov.
Nov.
Nov.

'68
'68
'68

E2. Analytical Ratios

Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.

8,84
8,84
8,84
84
8,84

Dec. '67#
Dec. '67#
Sep. '68# Sep.

8,85,97
85
85
85

May
May
May
May

8,85
85,74
85
85

June
June
June
June

Aug.

'68#

'67#

D4. Price Movements

781.
782.
783.
784

Consumer price
Consumer price
Consumer price
Consumer price

index,
index,
index,
index

750.
S8
751.
752

Wholesale price index,
Wholesale orice index
Wholesale price index,
Wholesale price index

all items
food
commodities
services

54,61
54
54
54

'69
'69
'69
'69

May
May
May
May

'69
'69
'69
'69

C2. Diffusion Indexes

0442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade
0444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade
0446. Number of employees, mfg. and trade
D450.
0460.
0462.
0464.
0466.

061. Bus. expend new plant and equip.
D480. Freight carloadings
480. Change in freight carloadings

45
45
j45

D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Dl. Foreign Trade

500 Merchandise trade balance
502. Exports, excluding military aid
506. Export orders, durable goods except
motor vehicles
508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery . .
512. General imports

46
46

8,81
8,81

May '69
May '69

May '69
May '69

8,81
8,81
8,81

Aug. '68# Aug. '68#
Apr. '69
May '69
May '69

8,82

July '69

May '69

8,82

July '69

May '69

82

July '69

May '69

47
13,47

82
5,66,82

July '69
July '69

May '69
May '69

48

82

July '69

48
48
13,49
13,49

82
82
82
82

July
July
July
July

49
49

82
82

July '69 May '69
July '69 May '69

49

82

July '69 May '69

49
50
50

82
83
83

July '69 May '69
July '69 May '69
July '69 May '69

545
544
547.
546.
548.
549.

Payments by U S. travelers abroad
50
Receipts from foreigners in U.S
50
U.S. military expenditures abroad
50
Military sales to foreigners
50
Receipts, transportation and services .... 50
Payments, transportation and services . . 50
.

83
83
83
83
83
83

July
July
July
July
July
July

'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69

May
May
May
May
May
May

'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69

561.
560.
565.
564.
570
575.

U.S. direct investments abroad
51
Foreign direct investments in U.S
51
U.S. purchases of foreign securities
51
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
51
Gov grants and capital transactions
51
Banking and other capital transactions . . 51
.

83
83
83
83
83
83

July
July
July
July
July
July

'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69

May
May
May
May
May
May

'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69

8,84
8,84
8,84
8,66,84

July
July
July
July

'69
'69
'69
«68#

July
July
July
July

46
.46
46

D2. Balance of Payments and Components

520. U.S. balance of payments, liquidity
balance basis
47
522. U.S. balance of payments, official
settlements basis
47
525. Net capital movements, liquidity balance
basis
47
527. Net capital movements, official settlements
D3SJS

.

250 Balance on goods and services
530 Liquid liabilities to foreigners
532. Liquid and nonliquid liabilities to foreign
534 U S official reserve assets
252. Exports of goods and services
536. Merchandise exports, adjusted
537 Merchandise imports adjusted
540. Investment income, military sales, and
services, exports
541. Foreigner investment income, military'*
expend., and services, imports
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad
543. Income on foreign investments in U.S

.

'69
'69
«69
'69

Fed. ba lance, nat'l income and prod. acct. .52
Fed. receipts, nat'l income and prod. acct. 52
Fed. expend., nat'l income and prod. acct. 52
National defense purchases
14,53

*Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.

114




'69
'69
' 69
'69

205 Actual GNP in 1958 dollars
206. Potential GNP in 1958 dollars
207. GNP gap (potential less actual)

9,21,38,56 6,64,70,86 July '68# July '6
56
86
56
5,86

850, Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing . .57
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade. 57
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
durables
57
853. Ratio, prod, of bus. equip, to consumer
goods
57
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable
58
personal income
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings
unfilled to persons unemployed
58
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm. 58
856. Real avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers. . 58
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers . 58
857. Vacancy rate, total rental housing
58

8,87
8,87

July '67

8,87

Sep.

'68

Sep>, '68

Feb. '69

8,87

Dec.

'68

Nov. '68

8,87

July '69

July '68

8,87
8,87
8,87

Mar. '69
Aug. '69
Aug. '69

June '68
June -'68

8,87
8,87

Aug. '&*
Feb. '6d

June '68

E3. Diffusion Indexes

May '69

59
59
59
59
59
59
59

88,91
88,91
88
89
89,92
89,93
89,93

Sep.
Oct.
Aug.
Oct.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.

'68
'68
'67
'64
'69
'69
'69

May
May
May
May

041.D47.
058.
054

Employees on nonagri. payrolls
Industrial production
Wholesale prices, manufactured goods
Sales of retail stores

60
60
60
60

90,94
90,94
90,95
90,96

Sep.
Dec.
June
Apr.

'68
'68
'69
'65

54,61
61
61
61
61
61
61

85,97
97
97
97
97
97
97

May '68#
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
Oct.
'67
Oct. '67

21,38,62
62
62
62
62
62
62
62

70,98
98
98
98
98
98
98
98

Dec.
July
Nov.
Nov.
June
Apr.
June
Nov.

'68
'67
'67
'67
'68
'68
'68
'67

28,37,63
63
63
63
-. 63
63
63

74,99
99
99
99
99
99
99

Mar.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.

'68
'67
'67
'67
'67
'6^;
'ftf '

'68#
'68#
'68#
'68#

'69
'69
'69
'69

E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES

Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg ...
New orders, durable goods industries
New capital appropriations, mfg
Profits, manufacturing
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Industrial materials prices
Initial claims, State 'unemploy. insurance .

'69
'69
'69
'69

June
June
June
June

Actual and Potential GNP

01.
D6.
Dll.
034.
D19.
023.
05.

D3. Federal Government Activities
600.
601.
602.
264.

all commodities . . .55
mfd soods
29,55
proc. foods, feeds . 55
farm products
55

May '69
Apr. '6C
June '6'

June '£

F. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
F1. Consumer Price Indexes
781. United States

133
132
135
136
138
137

Canada
United Kingdom
West Germany
France
Japan
Italy

F2. Industrial Production Indexes

47
123
122.
126.
125
128
121
127

United States
Canada
United Kingdom
France
West Germany
Japan
OECD European countries
Italy

F3. Stock Price Indexes
19 United States
143 Canada
142 United Kingdom
146. France
145. West Germany
148. Japan
147. Italy

#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.

Nov.

'68

Titles and Sources of Series
Within each of the six sections, series are listed in numerical order.
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. "M" indicates
monthly series; "Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the
whole period except for series designated by "EOM" (end of the
month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter).
The alphabetic-numeric designations following the series titles indicate all charts and tables in which the series may be found. See the
table of contents for chart and table titles and Series Finding Guide
for page numbers. The series in section B preceded by an asterisk
(*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators, chart
68. Unless otherwise indicated, all series which require seasonal
adjustment have been adjusted by their source.
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number and
are obtained from the same sources.

244. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential structures
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)

245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories after valuation adjustment, all industries (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4, B4)
250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A5, D2)
252. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A5, D2)
253. Imports of goods and services (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A5, D2)
260. Government purchases of goods and services, total (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A6)

A National Income and Product
200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Al, B2, B8)
205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Al, B2, B8, El)
10. Implicit price deflator, gross national product (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Al)
Per capita gross national product in current dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and
Bureau of the Census
(Al)
217. Per capita gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau
o* the Census
(Al)
220. rational income in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
222. Personal income in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
225. Disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
226. Per capita disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A3)

231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1958 dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A3)

262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, total
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A6)

264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
defense (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A6, D3)
266. State and local government purchases of goods and services,
total (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A6)
270. Final sales, durable goods (Q). • Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A7)
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A7)
274. Final sales, nondurable goods (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A7)
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods (Q).. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A7)
280. Compensation of employees (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A8)
282. Proprietors' income (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A8)
284. Rental income of persons (Q). --Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(A8)
286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A8)
288. Net interest (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A8)
290. Gross saving -- private saving plus government surplus or
deficit (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A9)

232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)

292. Personal saving (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A9)

233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods except
automobiles, in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A3)

294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A9)

234. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)

2%. Capital consumption allowances, corporate and noncorporate
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods, in
current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A3)

298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A9)

237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
240. Gross private domestic investment, total (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)
241. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)

242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A4)
243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, producers' durable
equipment (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A4)




(A9)

*10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(B3, B8)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations (Q).--National Industrial Conference Board (B3,E3)
*12. Index of net business formation (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau
of Economic Research, Inc.
(B3, B8)
13. Number of new business incorporations (M). - Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(B3)
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(B6)
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing
corporations (Q). -- Federal Trade Commission and Securities
and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
(B5)
*16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q)0 - Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(B5, B8)
*17. Index of price per unit of labor cost -- ratio, index of
wholesale prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) to
seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees
(sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and
salaries) per unit of output (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve. System
(B5, B8)
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M). - Standard and
Poor's Corporation
(B5, B8, E3, E4, F3)
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials
and supplies (M). •• Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
the Census
(B4)
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate,
all industries (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B5)
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, B8, E3, E4)
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment
industries (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B3)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

B Cyclical Indicators

(B4)

*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, B8, E3, E4)
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).
Bureau of Labor Statistics

5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(Bl, E3, E4)
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries
(M). --Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3, B8, E3, E4)
7. New private nonfarm housing units started (M). -- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)
8. Index of construction contracts, total value (M). - McGrawHill Information Systems Company. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(B3)
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings, floor space (M). -- McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(B3)

Department of Labor,
(Bl)

3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M), -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(Bl)
*4. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M). -- Department
of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(Bl, B8)

26. Buying policy - production materials, percent of companies
reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M). -- National
Association of Purchasing Management
(B4)
*29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building
permits (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3, B8)
*31. Change jn book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
total (M)'. -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census
(B4, B8)
Continued on reverse

115

Titles and Sources of Series
(Continued from page 115)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower
deliveries (M). -- Chicago Purchasing Agents Association
(B4)

33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions
and life insurance companies (M). -- Institute of Life Insurance, Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal
National Mortgage Association, National Association of
Mutual Savings Banks, U.S. Savings and Loan League, and
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B6)
37. Percent of companies reporting higher inventories of purchased materials (M). -- National Association of Purchasing
Management; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B4)

39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and
over (EONI). -- American Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc. (Bimonthly since December 1964)
(B6)
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M). •Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
*41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment
survey (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, B8, E3, E4)
42. Total number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities,
labor force survey (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

(Bl)
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(Bl, B8)
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M). -- Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(Bl, B8)
45 Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M). •- Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security(Bl)
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M). -- National
Industrial Conference Board
(Bl)

68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product (1958
dollars), nonfinancial corporations -- ratio of current-dollar
compensation of employees to gross corporate product in
1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(B5)
69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B3)
*71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value (EOM). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and
Bureau of the Census
(B4, B8)
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting
large commercial banks (EOM). -- Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
(B6, B8)

425. Mean probability (average chances in 100) of substantial
changes (increase, decrease, and increase less decrease) in
income of households (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(Cl)

(B6)

96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ). -National Industrial Conference Board
(B3)
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit
markets (Q). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M). -- Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B6)
*113. Net change in consumer installment debt (M). -- Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6, B8)
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M). -- Treasury Department
(B6)

117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M). - The Bond
Buyer
(B6)

49. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled (EONI). - Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
(Bl)

118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M). -- Department
of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration
(B6)

*52. Personal income (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(B2, B8)

*200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). See in section A.

55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M).-- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5)
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales (M). - Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census
(B2, B8)
57. Final sales (series 200 minus series 245) (Q). - Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B2)
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M). - Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, D4, E3, E4)
*61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
(B3, B8, Cl, C2)
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing-ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages
and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing
(M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B5,~B8)
65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book value, all
manufacturing industries (EOM). — Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B4)
66. Consumer installment debt (EOM). - Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain
current figure
(B6)
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities (Q). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6, B8)




116

416. Percent of total gross capital assets held by companies classifying their existing capacity as inadequate for prospective
operations over the next 12 months, less percent classifying
existing capacity as excessive (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Cl)

93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M). - Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl)

Department of Commerce, Bureau
(B2, B8, E3, E4)

414. Percent of total book value of inventories held by manufacturers classifying their holdings as high, less percent classifying holdings as low (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(Cl)

420. Current income of households compared to income a year ago
(percent higher, lower, and unchanged) (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Cl)

116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M). -- First
National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department(B6)

*54. Sales of retail stores (M).of the Census

(Cl)

412. Manufacturers' inventories, total book value (EOQ). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
(Cl)

85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B6)

*47, Index of industrial production (M). -- Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B2, B8, E3, E4, F2)

53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B2)

410. Manufacturers' sales, total value (p). -- Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics

*205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q).

See in section A.

245. Change in business inventories (GNP component) (Q). See
in section A.
810. Twelve leading indicators -- reverse trend adjusted composite
index (includes series 1, 4, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31,
and 113) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

430. Number of new cars purchased by households (Q).-- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(CP
435. Index of consumer sentiment (Q). -- University of Michigan
Survey Research Center
(CD440. New orders, manufacturing (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, In
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced wi*
out written permission from the source.)
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstr&i,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
' (C2)
D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- >un and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series msy not be
reproduced without written permission from the source,)
(C2)
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series-may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D462. Selling prices, manufacturing (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D466. Selling prices, retail trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D480. Freight carloadings (Q). -- Association of American Railroads-.

(C2)

(B7)

813. Marginal employment adjustments - leading composite index
(includes series 1, 4, and 5) (M). - Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B7)
814. Capital investment commitments -• leading composite index
(includes series 6, 10, 12, and 29) (M). -• Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B7)
815. Inventory investment and purchasing -- leading composite
index (includes series 23, 25, 31, and 37) (M). - Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B7)
816. Profitability - leading composite index (includes series 16,
17, and 19) (M). -• Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B7)
817. Sensitive financial flows -- leading composite index (includes
series 33, 85,112, and 113) (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B7)
820. Five coincident indicators - composite index (includes series
41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(37)
830. Six lagging indicators -- composite index (includes series 44,
61, 62, 67, 71, 72) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B7)

C Anticipations and Intentions
61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries (Q). See in section B.

480. Change in freight carloadings (Q). -- Association of American
railroads
(C2)

D Other Key Indicators
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M).
section B.

See in

250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- See in
section A.
252. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under military grants; U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- See in section
A.
253. Imports of goods and services:
(Q).--See in section A.

U.S. balance of payments

264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
defense (Q). -- See in section A.

500. Merchandise trade balance (Series 502 minus series 512) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
502. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Dl)

Titles and Sources of Series

561. U.S. direct investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2)

(Continued from page 116)

564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)

506. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except
motor vehicles and parts (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(01)

565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(02)

508. Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery (M).-McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
(Dl)

570. Government grants and capital transactions, net: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)

512. General imports, total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(Dl)

575. Banking and other capital transactions, net: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)

520. U.S. balance of payments on liquidity balance basis (change in
U.S. official reserve assets and change in liquid liabilities to
all foreigners) (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D2)
522. U.S. balance of payments on official settlements basis (change
in U.S. official reserve assets, and change in liquid and
certain nonliquid liabilities to foreign monetary official
agencies) (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)

600. Federal Government surplus or deficit, national income and
product accounts (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D3)
601. Federal Government receipts, national income and product
accounts (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(03)
602. Federal expenditures, national income and product accounts
(Q). -- Department of Commerce,-Office of Business Economics
(03)

525. Net capital movements (plus unilateral transfers - except
military grants -- and errors and omissions) on liquidity
balance basis: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)

616. Defense Department obligations incurred, total, excluding
military assistance (M). -- Department of Defense, Fiscal
Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
(D3)

527. Net capital movements (plus unilateral transfers - except
military grants -- and errors and omissions) on official settlements basis: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)

621. Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement (M). -Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(D3)

5?0. Liquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to all foreigners,
total outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)

625. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and
institutions (M). -- Department of Defense, Directorate for
Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
(D3)

532. Litjuid and certain nonliquid liabilities (excluding military
grants) to foreign official agencies, total outstanding: U.S.
balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(D2)
534. U.S. official reserve (assets) position, excluding military
grants: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)

647. New orders, defense products industries (M). • Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(03)

(D2)

U3. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)

546. Military sales to foreigners: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2)
547. U.S. military expenditures abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)

548. Receipts for transportation and other services: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
549. Payments for transportation and other services: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
560. Foreign direct investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)




859. Real spendable average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers (with 3 dependents) on private nonagricultural payrolls, 1957-59 dollars (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)

The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number
and are obtained from the same sources. See section B for titles
and sources of Dl, D5, 06, Oil, 019, 023, 041, 047, D54, D58, 061,
and section C for D440, D442, 0444, D446, 0450, 0460, 0462, 0464,
0466, and 0480. Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q). -- First National City Bank
of New York; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(E3)

F International Comparisons
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).
See in section B.
47. United States, index of industrial production (M). See in
section B.

122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M) -- Central
Statistical Office (London)
(F2)

752. Index of wholesale prices, farm products (M). -- Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)

542. Income on U.S. investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

858. Index of output per man-hour, total private nonfarm (Q). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)

750. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities (M). -- Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)

537. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)

541. Foreigners' investment income, military expenditures and other
services imports: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)

857. Vacancy rate in rental housing -- unoccupied rental housing
units as a percent of total rental housing (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(E2)

121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
European Countries, index of industrial production (M). -Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(Paris)
(F2)

751. Index of wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)

(02)

856. Real average hourly earnings of production workers in manufacturing, 1957-59 dollars (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(E2)

648. New orders, defense products (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(D3)

536. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants: U.S.
balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D2)

540. U.S. investment income, military sales, and other services
exports, excluding military grants: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled (series 49) to
number of persons unemployed (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Employment Security and Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (E2)

781. Index of consumer prices (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(04, Fl)
782. Index of consumer prices, food (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
783. Index of consumer prices, commodities less food (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
784. Index of consumer prices, services (M). -- Department of Labor,
I
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)

E Analytical Measures
205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A.
206. Potential level of gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -Council of Economic Advisers
(El)
207. Gap -- the potential GNP (series 206) less the actual GNP
(Series 205) (Q). - - Counci I of Econom ic Advi sers
(E1)
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing (Q). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce,
and McGraw-Hill Economics Department
(E2)
851. Ratio, inventories (series 71) to sales (series 56), manufacturing and trade total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(E2)
852. Ratio, unfilled orders (series 96) to shipments, manufacturers'
durable goods (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(E2)
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of
consumer goods (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System. (Based upon components of the Federal
Reserve index of industrial production.)
(E2)
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (series
292 divided by series 224) (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(E2)

123. Canada, index of industrial production (M). -- Dominion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F2)
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M). -- Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonal adjustment by
OECD
(F2)
126. France, index of industrial production (M). -- Institut National
de I a Stati sti que et des Etudes Econom i qu es (Pari s)
(F2)
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M). -- Istituto Centrale di
Stati sti ca( Rome)
(F2)
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M). -- Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(F2)
132. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M). -- Ministry of
Labour (London)
(Fl)
133. Canada, index of consumer prices (M). -- Dominion Bureau of
Stati sties (Ottawa)
(Fl)
135. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M). -- Stati sti sches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(Fl)
136. France, index of consumer prices (M). -- Insitut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(Fl)
137. Italy, index of consumer prices (M). -- Istituto Centrale di
Statistica(Rome)
(Fl)
138. Japan, index of consumer prices (M). -- Office of the Prime
Minister (Tokyo)
(Fl)
142. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M). -- The Financial
Times (London)
(F3)
143. Canada, index of stock prices (M). -- Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa)
(F3)
145. West Germany, index of stock prices (M). -- Statistisches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(F3)
146. France, index of stock prices (M). -- Institut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(F3)
147. Italy, index of stock prices (M). - Istituto Centrale di Statistica(Rome)
(F3)
148. Japan, index of stock prices (M). -- Tokyo Stock Exchange
(Tokyo)
(F3)
781. United States, index of consumer prices (M). See in section 0.

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