Full text of Business Conditions Digest : April 1969
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.S. DEPARTMENT
OF COMMERCE
APRIL 1969
DATA THROUGH MARCH
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
This report was prepared in the Statistical
Analysis Division. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are=Feliks Tamm—Technical supervision and
review,
Barry A. Beckman—Specifications for computer processing,
Gerald F. Don a hoe—New projects,
Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment methods,
Betty F, Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic data, (Telephone 440-1596)
Editorial supervision is provided by Maureen
Padgett of the Administrative and Publications
Services Division.
The cooperation of various government and
private agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies furnishing
data are indicated in the list of series and
sources at the back of this report.
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Maurice H. Stans, Secretary
Rocco C. Siciliano, Under Secretary
William H. Chartener, Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
A. Ross Eckler, Director
Robert F. Drury, Deputy Director
JULIUS SH1SKIN, Assistant Director
ABOUT THE REPORT
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT accounts summarize both receipts and
final expend/tares for the
persona/, bus/ness, foreign, and government
sectors of the economy
and provide useful
measures of total
economic activity. The
total of the final
expenditures, which
equals the total of the
receipts, is known as
gross national product,
the most comprehensive single measure
of aggregate economic
output GNP is defined
as the total market
value of the final output of goods and services produced by the
Nation's economy.
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
are economic time
series which have been
singled out as leaders, coindders, or /aggers in relation to movements in
aggregate economic
activity. In this report,
the series on the
NBER's list of cyclical
indicators are classified
by economic process
and by cyclical timing.
These indicators were
selected primarily on
the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but
they have also proven
useful in forecasting,
measuring, and
interpreting other
short-term fluctuations
in aggregate economic
activity.
INTENTIONS data
provide information
on the plans of
businessmen and consumers regarding their
major economic activities in the near future.
This information is considered to be a valuable
aid to economic forecasting either directly
or as an indication of
the state of confidence
concerning the economic outlook. A
number of surveys by
various organizations
and government
agencies have been
developed in recent
years to ascertain
anticipations and
Intentions. The results
of some of these
surveys, expressed as
time series, are
presented in this
report.
This monthly report brings together many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters. Its predecessor, Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the
analysis of business conditions and was based largely on
the list of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Some other approaches commonly used by students of economic conditions include econometric models
and anticipations and intentions data. The econometric
model concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships among consumption, private investment, government,
and various components of the major aggregates to generate
forecasts of gross national product and its composition.
Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of businessmen and the intentions of consumers.
Most of the content of Business Cycle Developments has
been retained in this new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis of other approaches have been added to
to make it more generally useful to those concerned with
an evaluation of current business conditions and prospects.
The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and
business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is
not to be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau
of the Census or any other government agency of any particular approach to economic analysis. This report is intended only to provide statistical information so arranged
as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's
economy.
Almost all of the basic data presented in this report
have been published by their source agencies. A series
finding guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and
data sources, is shown at the back of this report.
Subscription price, including supplements, is $16 a year ($4 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues are $1.50.
Airmail delivery is available at an additional charge. For information about domestic or foreign airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below), enclosing a copy of your address label. Make checks payable to the Superintendent of
Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402, or to any U.S. Department of Commerce Field Office.
ltd*
New Features and Changes for This Issue..
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Section A. National Income and Product
Section B. Cyclical Indicators
Section C. Anticipations and Intentions
Section D. Other Key Indicators
Section E. Analytical Measures
Section F. International Comparisons
How to Read Charts
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes.
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
APRIL 1969
Data Through March
Series ESI No. 69-4
Ill
1
1
1
1
2
3
3
3
3
4
5
„
PART I. CHARTS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
-
9
10
11
...,12
— 13
14
15
16
17
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
Selected Indicators by Timing
Composite Indexes
NBER Short List
18
21
23
26
28
30
34
36
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
40
43
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components
Federal Government Activities
Price Movements
-.
;
-
46
47
52
54
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2
E3
Actual and Potential Gross National Product
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
56
57
59
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices
61
62
63
,
PART I!. TABLES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services....
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
64
64
65
65
66
66
66
66
67
.,
.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Bl
B2
B3
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
68
70
71
73
74
75
Selected Indicators by Timing
Composite Indexes
.,
77
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
78
79
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade....
Balance of Payments and Major Components
81
82
Federal Government Activities.
Price Movements
84
85
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Actual and Potential GNP
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
,
Selected Diffusion Index Components
86
87
.88
91
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices
97
98
99
APPENDIXES
A.
6.
C.
D.
E.
MCDand Related Measures of Variability
Current Adjustment Factors
Historical Data for Selected Series
Descriptions and Sources of Series
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States:
101
104
105
110
1954 to 1961
112
Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series.
113
115
U
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
Changes in this issue are as follows:
A (fmited number of
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent find-
1* The series on commercial and industrial loans of weekly report-
ings of economic
research, newly avail-
ing large commercial banks (series 72 and 112) have been revised for
able time ser/es, and
the period January 1968 to date to reflect the source agency's annual
source agencies in
revisions made by
updating of these data. In addition, series 72 reflects a new seasonal adjustment by the Census Bureau beginning with June 1966.
The new
concept, composition,
comparabi/ity, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
factors are shown in appendix B for the period May 1968 through
data, etc. Changes may
June 1969.
data, additions or
result in revisions of
2. The series on foreign trade (series 500, 502, and 512) have been
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
revised for the period 1966 to date to reflect new seasonal adjustment
series in relation to
other series, changes
factors*
issue.
Revised data are shown from January 1968 to date in this
Revised data for the period prior to this date will be shown
in a subsequent issue.
Further information concerning these revisions
may be obtained from the Bureau of the Census, Foreign Trade Division.
3. Appendix A contains new MOD and related measures of variability
for the following series which were recently revised: Series 4, 5,
14, 33, 40, 42, 43, 44, 49, 72, and 855.
4. Appendix C includes historical data for series 23, 72, 508, D5,
D19, and D23.
5. Appendix D includes descriptions for series 7, 29, and 23.
The May issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for release
on May 29.
iii
in composition of
indexes, etc.
4 CENSUS PROJECTS on economic fluctuations
BUSINESS CONDITIONS
DIGEST
DEFENSE INDICATORS
LONG TERM
ECONOMIC GROWTH
COMPUTER PROGRAMS
FOR TIME SERIES
ANALYSIS
A monthly report for
analyzing economic
fluctuations over a short
span of years.
This report brings together
approximately 400 monthly
and quarterly economic time
series in a form which is
convenient for analysts
whether their approach to
the study of current business
conditions and prospects is
the national income model,
the leading indicators,
anticipations and intentions,
or a combination of these.
Other types of data such as
foreign trade, Federal government activities, and international comparisons of consumer prices, stock prices,
and industrial production are
included to facilitate a more
complete analysis.
Data are presented in charts
and tables, and appendixes
are included which provide
historical data, series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of
variability. A/so, a computer
tape containing data for
most of the series in the
report is available for purchase.
A report for the study of
economic fluctuations
over a long span of years,
1860-1965.
A monthly report for
analyzing the current and
prospective impact of
defense activity on the
national economy.
This report has been
developed from available
statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view
of the U.S. economy. It has
been planned, prepared, and
published as a basic research
document for economists,
historians, investors, teachers,
and students, ft brings
together for the first time
under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the
complete statistical basis for
a study of long-term economic trends. It is a unique
presentation of the full range
of factors required for an
understanding of our
country's economic development Some of the statistical
series go back to 1860. A
computer tape file of the time
series included in the report
is available for purchase.
This report brings together
the principal time series on
defense activities which
influence short-term changes
in the national economy.
These include series on
obligations, contracts, orders,
shipments, inventories,
expenditures, employment,
and earnings. The approximately 50 time series included
are grouped in accordance
with the time at which the
activities they measure occur
in the defense order-production-de/ivery process. Most
are monthly series, although
a few are quarterly. This
publication provides original
and seasonally adjusted basic
data in monthly, quarterly,
and annual form. Charts and
analytical tables are included
to facilitate interpretation.
iv
The source statements for
FORTRAN IV programs which
are used by the Bureau in
its analysis of time series
are available from the Bureau
on a single computer tape.
SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT
PROGRAMS.—Two variants
of the Census computer
program for measuring and
analyzing seasonal, tradingday, cyclical, and irregular
fluctuations and the relations
among them. They are particularly useful in analyzing
economic fluctuations which
take place within a year. The
X-ll variant is used for
adjusting monthly data and the
X-11Q for quarterly data.
These programs can make additive as well as multiplicative
adjustments and compute
many summary and analytical
measures of the behavior
of each series.
DIFFUSION INDEX
PROGRAM.—A computer
program for computing diffusion indexes, cumulated
diffusion indexes, and
summary measures of the
properties of each index.
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
THIS REPORT is organized into six major
subject sections, as follows:
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
National income and Product
Cyclical Indicators
Anticipations and intentions
Other Kay Grtdicators
Analytical Measures
International Comparisons
Each of these sections is described briefly
in this introduction. Data for each of the
above sections are shown both in Part I
(charts) and in Part II (tables) of the report. The charts begin with 1948 (except
in section C where they begin with 1957);
the tables contain data for only the last
few years. Except for section F, the charts
contain shading which indicates periods of
recession in general business activity.
In addition to the charts and tables described above, ©ach issue contains a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series, and several
appendixes which present historical data,
series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of variability. An
index appears at the back of each issue.
It should be netted that the series numbers
used are for identification purposes only
and do not reflect relationships or order.
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the
underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive
intrayear variations resulting primarily
from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to
holidays are usually accounted for by the
seasonal adjustment process; however, a
separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable
dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation
due to the number of working or trading
days in each month. As used in this report,
the term "seasonal adjustment" includes
trading-day and holiday adjustments where
they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and,
in most cases, these are the official figures
released by the source agencies. However,
for the special purposes of this report, a
number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here
on a seasonally adjusted basis.
MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are
often dominated by erratic movements.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is
an estimate of the appropriate span over
which to observe cyclical movements in a
monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the
smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is
greater than that in the irregular factor.
The more erratic a series is, the larger the
MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD
moving averages (that is, moving averages
of the period equal to MCD) tend to have
about the same degree of smoothness for
all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average
of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its
cyclical movements about as clearly as the
seasonally adjusted data for a series with
an MCD of 1.
The charts for sections B and D include
centered MCD moving averages for all
series with an MCD greater than 4. The
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations
for the most recent months.
Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates
used in this report are those designated
by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached
its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, neither new reference
turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until
after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the
shaded area have been designated. This
policy is followed because of the conceptual and empirical difficulties of designating a current recession and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading
of a current recession without including
part of a new expansion.
SECTION A
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by the Office of Business Economics (OBE), summarize both receipts
and final expenditures for the personal,
business, foreign, and government sectors
of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total
of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which
equals the total of the receipts (mainly
incomes), is known as gross national
product (GNP). GNP is defined as the
total market value of the final output of
goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output.
Gross national product consists of four
major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods
and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services.
Personal consumption expenditures is the
market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the
value of food, clothing, housing, and finan-
cial services received by them as income
in kind. The total purchase cost is covered,
including sales taxes. Home purchases are
excluded, but the estimated rental value
of owner-occupied homes is included.
Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net
changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable
equipment and private (as opposed to
government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates
are gross in the sense that there is no
deduction for capital consumption. The
inventory component measures the change
in the physical volume of inventories valued at current replacement cost.
Net exports of goods and services measures
the excess of exports over imports of goods
and services. Exports include both domestic output sold abroad and the contribution to production abroad made by U.S.owned resources. Imports include both
U.S. purchases of foreign output and the
contribution made to production in the
United States by foreign-owned resources.
More detail on U.S. balance of payments
is provided in section D.
Government purchases of goods and services includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net
purchases from business and from abroad,
payments to private nonprofit institutions
for research and development, and the
gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays
of government enterprises, acquisitions of
land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,
and interest payments to domestic creditors.
A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP,
covering durable and nondurable goods
and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section
A. Other major aggregates taken from the
national income and product accounts are
described below.
National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods
and services and accruing to the labor and
property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income,
rental income of persons, corporate profits
and the inventory valuation adjustment,
and net interest.
Persona/ income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions,
private trust funds, and private health and
welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income,
and transfer payments to persons, less
personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving.
It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments
to general government.
Gross saving represents the difference between income and spending during an ac-
counting period. It is the total of personal
saving, undistributed corporate profits,
corporate inventory valuation adjustment,
the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government
surplus or deficit, and capital consumption
allowances.
Most of the series in this section are on
a current-dollar basis, but some are shown
on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that
the effects of price changes are eliminated.
The implicit price deflator (computed by
dividing the current-dollar data by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP is also
shown.
SECTION B
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
The business cycle is generally described
as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as
total production, employment, income,
consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.
Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it
inevitable.
One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a
tool for analyzing current economic con-'
drtions and prospects. This is the cyclical
indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to
movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained
a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 72
cyclical indicators is the basis for this section of BCD. These indicators were
selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful
in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER employs a dual classification
scheme which groups the indicators by
cyclical timing and by economic process,
and this report uses thd same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system
used in this section. The 72 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification
and cyclical timing as the secondary basis.
The major processes are divided into minor
processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing
classification takes into account a series'
historical record of timing at business
cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators
are those which usually reach peaks or
troughs before the corresponding turns in
aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of
aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging • indicators
usually reach their turning points after the
turns in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER has also specified a "short list"
of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal
indicators is drawn from the full list and
provides a convenient summary of the
current situation. The short list consists of
26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these
are quarterly series; the rest are monthly.
The short list is classified only by timing
and is shown separately in chart B8.
Also included in this section is a group
of composite indexes. These indexes provide simple summary measures of the
average behavior of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is
weighted according to its value in forecasting or identifying short-term movements in
aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each indicator has, aside from its weight, an equal
opportunity to influence the index, and the
index is standardized so that its average
month-to-month change during the pos:
war period is 1.0 percent per month.
The composite indexes presented in this
report are based on groups of indicators
selected by timing. Thus, there is an index
of leading indicators, another of coincident
indicators, and a third of lagging indicators.
In addition, there are five indexes based on
leading indicators which have been
grouped by economic process. These indexes indicate the underlying cyclical
trends of each group of indicators and the
relative magnitude of their short-term
changes. The index of 12 leading indicators
has been "reverse trend adjusted" so that
its long-run trend parallels that of the
coincident index. This facilitates compari-
Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
.
1. EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(14 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(5 series)
LEADING INDICATORS
(36 series)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
(25 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)
Long-duration
unemployment
(1 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(11 series)
II. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(8 series)
III. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)
IV. INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment
commitments
(8 series)
Inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)
Comprehensive
Backlog of investment
production
commitments
(3 series)
(2 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive
consumption
and trade (3 series)
Investment
expenditures
(2 series)
Inventories
(2 series)
V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(10 series)
VI. MONEY
AND CREDIT
(17 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices
(1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit
margins
(4 series)
Flows of money
and credit
(6 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Comprehensive
wholesale
prices
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Money market interest
rates
(4 series)
Unit labor costs
(2 series)
Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates on
business loans
and mortgages
(2 series)
1
I
sons among the leading, coincident, and
lagging indexes and tends to shorten the
leads of the leading index at business
cycle peaks while lengthening them at
troughs; it also reduces the variability of
the leads and lags.
SECTION C
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS
Most businessmen and many individual
consumers have some type of plans as to
their major economic activities in the near
future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication
of the state of confidence concerning the
economic outlook. In recent years, much
progress has been made in compiling such
information, and a number of surveys by
various organizations and government
agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The
results of some of these surveys, expressed
as time series, are presented in this section of the report.
The business analyst who uses these series should be aware of their limitations.
These data reflect only the respondents'
anticipations (what they expect others to
do) or intentions (what they plan to do),
not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses
may not be very reliable; that is, the
plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many
plans are subject to modification or even
complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments.
In some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for
example, the anticipations (or intentions)
data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic
conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what
has already occurred and hence appear to
lag behind actual changes. Actual data are
included in this section to indicate their
historical relationship to the anticipations
and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the
description for section E.
T— ~~;~n SECTION D
OTHER KEY
INDICATORS
Many economic series are available which,
although not included in the three main
sections of the report, are nevertheless
important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of
such series, though by no means a com
prehensive selection. In general, these series reflect processes which are not direct
measures of economic activity but which
do have a significant bearing on business
conditions.
The foreign trade and payments series
include data on imports and exports and
their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts
are shown. Some are charted in a manner
which emphasizes the balance between
receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports
of goods and services, and income on
U.S. investments abroad with payments on
foreign investments in the United States.
In addition, balances are shown for U.S.
Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the
private sector (banks and U.S. residents
other than banks). Finally, cumulative
changes are shown for other components;
for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all
foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets.
Because these data are influenced by
foreign as well as domestic conditions,
the cyclical shading has been omitted
from the balance-of-payments charts.
The Federal Government activities series
include Federal receipts and expenditures
and their balance, and selected Federal defense activities. The receipts and expenditures data are from the national income and
product accounts, but are not shown in
section A of this report. The defense series
included are only a few of the many available. For a more comprehensive picture of
defense activities, see Defense Indicators,
a monthly Bureau of the Census publication.
The price movements series consist of
consumer and wholesale price indexes and
their major components. Additional data
on prices and costs are shown in several
other sections.
SECTION E
ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
This section begins by comparing gross
national product in constant dollars with
a measure of potential GNP. In effect,
these two series reflect the relationship
between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree
to which potentially productive resources
are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of
Economic Advisers in the early 1960's,
takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour.
The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic variables (for example, the series on labor cost
per unit of output). There are, however,
additional analytical ratios which have
proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such
ratios are shown in the second part of
this section.
The third part presents diffusion indexes
for selected economic activities. Many of
the series throughout this report are aggregates compiled from a number of
components. A diffusion index is a simple
summary measure which expresses, for a
particular aggregate, the percentage of
components rising over a given timespan.
It reflects only directions of change among
the components, not magnitudes. Cyclical
changes in diffusion indexes tend to lead
those of the corresponding aggregates.
Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic,
long-term (6- or 9-month span) diffusion
indexes are shown to bring out the underlying trends and short-term (month-tomonth) indexes are shown to indicate the
most recent developments. Most of the
diffusion indexes are based on aggregate
series shown in section B, and have the
same series numbers preceded by the
letter "D". The diffusion indexes are classified according to the cyclical timing of the
aggregates to which they relate.
The final part (E4), which appears only as
a table, lists many of the components
used in computing the diffusion indexes.
Where possible, recent data for the components are shown and the month-tomonth directions of change are indicated.
SECTION F
DM
INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Because this report is designed as an aid
to the analysis of U.S. business conditions,
all previous sections are based on data
which relate directly to that purpose. But
many business analysts examine economic
developments in other important countries
with a view to their impact on the United
States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which
we have important trade relationships.
Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West
Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series.
Also included is an industrial production
index for the European countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price
indexes measure an important sector of
prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from the charts.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end
of expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas) as designated by NBER.
Basic Data
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly
figures or MCD moving averages.*)
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end
of recession and beginning of
Expansion as designated by
NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
("6" = June)
Roman number indicates latest
$/ quarter for which data are
/
plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data,
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.)
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given
distance, "scale- L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in
that distance, etc. The scales
should be carefully noted because
they show whether the plotted
lines for various series are directly comparable.
Scale shows percent of components rising.
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans.
*Many of the more irregular
series are shown in terms of their
MCD moving averages as well as
their actual monthly data. In such
cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term1 moving averages are plotted I /?, 2,
or 2l/2 months, respectively, behind the actual data, See appendix A for a description of MCD
moving averages.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("6" =
June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("I" =
first quarter)
Broken line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over various spans.
NOTE: Some of the charts of
anticipations and intentions data
(section C) and balance of payments data (section D) do not
conform to the above method of
presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
To locate a series in BCD, consult the 'Index—Series Finding Guide" in the back of the book where series are arranged into six
sections and various subsections. Also, in the list of "Titles and Sources of Series" which follows the Finding Guide, series are
listed in numerical order within each of the six sections, and the charts and tables in which they appear are indicated.
1
Table L Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data1
Series title
1966
1967
1968
4th Q
IstQ
1967
1968
Percent change
2dQ
1968
3dQ
1968
4th Q
1968
IstQ
1969
2dQ
to
3dQ
1968
3dQ
to
4th Q
1968
Series number
Unit
of
measure
4th Q
to
IstQ
1969
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Al. Gross National Product
200
205.
210.
215.
217
Annjate.bil.dol..
do
1958=100
Ann. rate, dol ...
do
....
7*7.6
657.1
113.8
3,796
3,337
789.7
673.1
117*3
3,965
3,380
860.6
706.7
121.8
4,277
3,512
811.0
681.8
118.9
4,055
3,409
831.2
692.7
120.0
4,147
3,456
852.9
703.4
121*2
4,245
3,501
871.0
712.3
122.3
4,324
3,536
887.4
718.4
123.5
4,393
3,556
903.4
723.6
124.8
4,462
3,574
2*1
1.3
0.9
1.9
1.0
1*9
0.9
1.0
1*6
0*6
1.8
0.7
1.1
1.6
0.5
200
205
210
215
217
Amuat«,bil.dol..
. ....do
do
Disposable personal income, current dol . . ,
do
Disposable personal income, constant dol . .
Per capita disposable personal income,
Ann. rate, dol ...
current dollars
Per capita disposable personal income,
do
620.8
586.8
511.6
459.2
652.9
628.8
546.3
478.0
712.8
685*8
589.0
497.5
670.9
645.2
559.6
483.7
688.1
662.7
574.4
491.8
705.4
678.1
586.3
497.1
722.5
694.3
592.7
499.2
735.1
708.2
602.4
501.7
NA
721.4
608.6
502*2
2.4
2.4
1.1
0.4
1*7
2*0
1.6
0.5
NA
1.9
1.0
0.1
220
222
224
225
2,598
2,744
2,928
2,798
2,866
2,918
2,942
2,982
3,006
0.8
1.4
0.6
226
2,332
2,401
2,473
2,418
2,454
2,474
2,478
2,483
2,480
0*2
0.2
-0.1
227
465.5
417.8
492.2
430.5
533.8
450.9
502.2
434.1
74*2
519.4
444.9
527.9
447.5
541.1
455.7
546.8
455.4
558.4
NA
81.0
52.0
85.1
53.5
31.6
85.1
86.9
232.7
223.4
233.7
228.0
NA
NA
239*1
232.4
2.5
1.8
5.1
2.9
9.0
2.0
2.1
GN P in current dol lars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars ...
A2. Notional and Ptrsonal Ineomt
220, National income current dollars
224.
225.
226,
227.
A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
Ann.rate,bil.dol. .
Total current dollars
do
Total constant dollars
do
Durable goods current dollars
do
.Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars. .
do
Automobiles current dollars
do
Nondurable goods, current dollars
do
Services current dollars
230
231
232
233.
234.
236,
237
70.5
45.2
25.3
72.6
47.7
24.9
82.5
52.5
30.1
206.7
188.3
215.8
203*8
120.8
114.-3
81.3
28.5
83.6
27.9
55.7
24.6
48.9
25.3
79.0
50.6
28.4
230.3
221.0
218*4
209.6
226.5
213.9
29*0
228*2
218.7
127.7
121.8
119*7
127.3
127.1
136.6
138*9
90.0
29.2
60.8
85.0
27.7
57.3
28.5
87.0
28.5
58.5
29.5
10*8
90.1
28.8
61.3
29.5
94.3
29.9
64.5
31.6
10.6
99.8
53*8
31.3
1.1
-0.1
0.0
0.6
-0.9
0.4
2.1
2.1
NA
2.1
NA
NA
2.3
1.9
2*0
231
232
233
234
236
237
1.7
5.8
-4.2
240
241
242
243
244
245
-1.0
-5.8
-3.9
250
252
253
A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240.
241,
242.:
243.
244.
Gross private domestic investment, total . . .
Fixed investment, total nonresident! al
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures.
Fixed investment, producers' dur. equip. . . .
Fixed investment, residential structures . . .
do
do
do
:::::8::::::
do
52*8
do
24.8
14.7
do
do
do
43.1
38.1
6*1
29*9
7*7
8.3
88.6
29.6
59.0
29.1
2.1
7.5
32*5
67.3
32*7
6*4
-0.2
3.6
1.1
4.8
0.0
-3.3
7*5
4.7
3.8
5.2
7.1
3.1
a.7
4.3
3.5
AS. Foreign Trade
9co
Cynhrtc
5.1
4.8
45*8
2.0
3.4
1*5
2*0
3.3
1.0
0.0
50.0
48.1
46.0
42.6
47.5
46.0
49.9
47.9
52.6
49.4
50.1
49.1
47.2
41.0
178.4
90*6
197.2
100*0
183*5
190.5
97.1
195.7
100.0
199.6
101.2
203.0
101.7
206*2
102.3
72.4
78.9
97.2
93.5
74.6
90.0
76*8
79.0
93.4
95*6
79.6
98.4
47*2
1*3
5.4
3.1
-2.3
-4*8
-0.6
A6. Government Purchases of Goods
and Services
103.9
2.0
1.2
0.8
2.9
1.7
0.5
0.5
2.8
1.6
0.6
0.4
2.7
260
262
264
266
177.8
NA
3.5
1.5
NA
270
4.9
254.4
5.6
254.6
NA
NA
-1.3
0.7
0.1
NA
NA
271
274
4.6
2.5
5.0
NA
-2.1
2.5
NA
275
496.8
507.1
519.7
530.7
544.8
61.8
20.7
83.8
25.0
62.6
63.4
21.0
91.6
26.7
63.7
21*2
91.8
27.6
63.7
21.4
2.1
0.5
1.0
0.2
3.4
2.7
0*0
0.9
NA
3.3
280
282
284
286
298
126.9
123.3
130.1
132.9
140*3
5.6
43.4
40.8
44.0
37.1
40.9
35.3
NA
-13f.7
290
292
24.8
71.1
20.4
72.3
23*6
73.7
23.7
76.2
-0.4
77.5
-11.3
25.0
74.9
-4.1
1.7
3.7
NA
1.7
NA
294
296
298
-7.0
-9*0
-8.2
0.8
NA
207
do
do
do
do
156.2
do
145.7
156.4
172.2
159.9
166.7
169.1
175.1
do
do
10.2
221.8
3.0
234.5
4.6
250.9
4.2
236.6
1.5
246.1
6.2
248.5
do
4.5
3.1
3.2
4*1
0.6
do
.....do
do
do
286, Corp. profits and inventory valuation adj. . .
do
2JJ8 Net interest
435.6
468.2
513.6
482.7
60.7
19.8
83.9
20.8
60,7
20.3
80.4
23.3
62.9
21.0
89.1
26.3
61.1
20.5
82.3
24.3
126.3
119.5
40*2
131.6
40.7
69*2
-13.8
23.2
74.3
-6.5
-0.1
-6.8
260.
262
264
266
Total
Federal
National defense
State and local
A7. Final Sales and Inventories
270. Final sales durable goods
271. Change in business inventories, durable
goods2
274. Final sales nondurable goods
275. Change in business
inventories, nondurable goods 2
77.4
60.6
78.8
87*8
80.0
101*2
80.3
2.4
AS. National Income Components
A9. Saving
290 Gross saving total
do
do
294, Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296, Capital consumption allowances. 2
298, Government surplus or deficit, total
do
do.....
do
El. Actual and Potential GNP
207. GNP eao footential less actual)2
do
32.9
27.5
64.1
1.7
-10.0
24.0
-12.5
1.1
-10.3
-3.
20*9
89.2
25.8
NA
28.5
NA
NA
NA
NA
2.9
1.3
0.5
2.7
3.9
2.2
-15.7
5.9
1.6
7.2
-2.0
10.2
-5.2
Basic data1
Series title
Unit
of
measure
1967
1968
3dQ
1968
4th Q
810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj. . 1963-100
do
820* 5 coincident indicators .... *
do . ,
830 6 lagging indicators
126*9
143.2
150.9
138.4
156*6
164.9
139.7
158.1
166.2
813
814,
815.
816,
817,
100.2
107.1
101.0
114.6
101.7
114.2
101*8
116*6
102.2
5,817
4.4
Thousands
Per 100 employ . .
Thous,, EOP,...
1957-59=100 . . .
Percent change
Jan.
to
Feb.
1969
Feb.
to
Mar.
1969
IstQ
1969
Jan.
1969
Feb.
1969
Mar.
1969
144.1
161.9
171.2
145.2
166.0
180*2
144.3
164.7
177.7
146.4
166.4
181*2
145,0
166.9
181,8
1.5
1.0
2*0
-1.0
102.6
114.9
100.6
116.6
101*8
101.1
118,5
102,4
118.5
104.2
100*3
118*9
103.3
117*4
NA
100.9
119.0
102.0
117.6
102*4
100.0
119.9
104*2
117.9
101.6
117.7
103.8
116.7
NA
0*8
2.2
0.3
-1.8
-0.4
-1.0
-0*8
40*7
5*716
4.6
40*9
5,900
4.6
40.8
40.4
40.6
40*1
5,452
4.7
5,352
NA
5,376
4*9
5,508
4.6
40*6
5,172
NA
-0.3
225
1.4
194
1.2
194
1.2
189
1.1
183
NA
179
1.1
186
1*0
184
NA
348
182
373
200
376
201
373
220
365
227
372
221
375
229
365
232
1968
3dQ
to
4th Q
1968
4th Q
to
IstQ
1969
Series number
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
B, CYCLICAL INDICATORS
D7. Composft* Indexes
Marfiinal employment adjustments
Capital investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing
Profitability
Sensitive financial flows
do
do
do
. . do
do
98.3
3.1
2.4
3.0
0*8
2.5
5.3
810
820
830
3.1
1.8
1.6
2.4
0*3
0.9
-0*9
NA
813
814
815
816
817
NA
-0.2
-7.6
0.1
-1.0
-1.8
NA
0.1
1.1
NA
2.6
0.1
3.2
NA
5
3
3*6
1.3
9.5
3.2
49
46
0.0
0.6
0.4
0*9
0.1
0*3
0*2
1.0
0.6
1*2
1.3
1*5
48
41
42
0.2
0*1
43
0*3
0.3
NA
Bl. Employment and Unemployment
LEADING INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
*1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
*4. Nonagrt. placements, all industries
2, Accession rate, manufacturing 2
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State 3
unemployment insurance (inverted )
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted3)2. . .
Hours
Ann, rate, thous.
Per 100 employ .
40.6
-1.2
2.5
-3.9
1.2
-6.1
1
4
2
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Job Vacancies;
46, Help-wanted advertising
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural
Ann. rate, billion
establishments.
man-hours
*41. Employees on nonagri payrolls
Millions
42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities . . .
do
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43, Unemployment rate, total (Inverted3)2. , . . Percent
45. Avg, weekly insured
unemployment
rate (inverted3)2
do
40. Unemployment
rate,
married
males
do
(inverted3) 2
131.8
66.0
70.5
135.2
136.2
136.5
68.1
72.1
68.3
72.3
69.0
72.7
138.1
137.7
137.7
138.9
69.9
73.8
69.6
73.5
70.0
73.8
70*1
74.0
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.4
3.3
3*3
3*3
3.4
2.5
2.2
2*2
2.0
2*1
2*1
2.1
2.0
1.8
0*0
-0*1
0.0
O.I
0.2
-0.1
45
0*0
0.0
0.1
0.1
40
0.0
0*0
0.1
0.0
44
LAGGING INDICATORS
Long Duration Unemployment:
* 44. Unemployment rate,
15 weeks and
over (inverted3)2
, , do , ,.,
0*6
0.5
0*5
0.4
0*4
Ann. rate, bil.dol . . 789.7
673.1
158*1
660.6
706.7
164.7
871.0
712.3
165.2
887*4
718.4
167.4
903.4
723.6
169.7
169.2
169.5
170.5
0*2
0*6
1.9
0.9
1*3
1*8
0.7
1.4
200
205
47
Comprehensive Income;
*52. Personal income
Ann, rate, bil.dol. 628.8
163.9
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr . . .
do
685.8
177.8
694.3
178.9
708.2
183.6
721.4
187.8
716.1
186.2
721.4
187.4
726.7
189.8
0.7
0.7
2*0
1.9
52
53
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales
57. Final sales
*54, Sales of retail stores
1,068
783.6
314.0
1.163
852.9
338.9
1,178
863.5
345.3
1,194
876*8
343.4
NA
897.0
351.7
1,202
1,220
NA
1.5
NA
1*4
1.5
347.9
352,3
355.0
1*3
0.8
NA
2.3
2.4
56
57
54
1957-59-100.... 107.7
Ann. rate, thous, . 207.8
117.8
233.2
119.8
242.1
124.2
251.4
NA
256*5
125.2
246*9
125*8
266*4
NA
256.2
0.5
7.9
3.7
3.8
NA
2.0
12
13
334.5
174
330*5
187
355.9
187
365.8
205
350.8
177
88.0
25.0
70.6
93.0
95.8
94*1
88.7
25,,9
357.6
191
92*8
NA
356.2
191
85.0
23.8
69.7
75.5
76.0
74.4
78.1
75.6
7.7
0.0
5.7
3.6
6*9
0.5
2*1
-0.2
NA
0*7
6
8
10
11
24
793
1,498
112.9
798
1,524
110.6
883
1,579
118*9
912
1,673
118*4
1,133
1,845
117*2
840
1,651
123.4
3.6
7.5
3.3
6.0
-0.4
9
7
29
84*07
21.64
80.57
21.03
84.07
21.64
84.72
NA
84.43
84.99
4.3
2.9
0.8
NA
96
97
0.4
0.4
0.4
B2. Production, Income, Consumption,
and Trade
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Production:
*200. GNP in current dollars
*205 GNP in 1958 dollars
*47. Industrial production
1957-59-100.,..
do
do
. do
-0.6
83. Fixed Capital Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12. Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations
New Investment Commitments:
*6, New orders, durable goods industries — Ann.rate, bil.dol . . 302.3
8, Construction contracts, total value
1957-59=100 ....
155
*10, Contracts and orders, plant, equipment . . .Ann. rate, bil.dol.. 75.4
do
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing,
23.0
24. New orders, mach. and equip, industries . .
do
63.0
9, Construction contracts, commercial
Ann. rate, mil. sq.
and industrial buildings .
ft.floor space . .
703
7, Private nonfarm housing starts
Ann, rate, thous. . 1»273
*29. New bldg. permits, private housing
1957-5^=100 .... 95.6
2.7
7.3
-1*8
NA
-3.8
-4.1
-13.7
-S.7
5.0
-3.2
762
1,522
114.5
-25.9
-10*5
5.3
-9*3
-7.8
-7.2
84.72
0.7
10.7
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
4
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
. Bil.dol., EOP... 80.58
20*41
97. Backlog of capital approp. mfg.4
do
-0.3
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
1967
4th Q
1968
Percent change
1968
3dQ
1968
64.11
63.20
65.90 a7l*65
82.69
82*52
86*61
NA
7.7
7.5
10.6
6*4
8*8
12*6
NA
IstQ
1969
Jan.
1969
Feb.
1969
Mar.
1969
Feb.
to
Mar.
1969
Jan.
to
Feb.
1969
3dQ
to
4th Q
1968
4th Q
to
IstQ
1969
|
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B3. Fixed Capital Investment-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment Expenditures:
*6L Business expend., new plant and equip • • • Ann. rate, bit. dol. 61.69
69, Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures
do.
76.90
90.00
91.46
NA
1.6
NA
11.3
NA
7*5
NA
4.3
8*7
61
5.0
NA
69
3.1
-4.2
245
3.8
NA
31
3
37
NA
20
B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
245. Change in business
inventories, all
industries2.
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing
Ann. rate, billion
6*1
do
37, Purchased materials,2 percent reporting
Percent
higher inventories
20. Change in book value, manufacturers'
Ann. rate, billion
inventories of materials, supplies2.
dollars
26, Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer2 <g> — Rjrcent
32, Vendor performance, percent reporting
do
25. Change in unfilled
oraers, durable goods Ann. rate, bill ion
2
dollars
industries .
6*6
10.1
3.8
44
51
51
43
46
43
0.1
1*4
1.5
0.1
NA
-0.4
47
-0.4
49
4
2
NA
0*0
MA
-8
-1.4
65
64
65
61
59
57
58
63
1
5
-4
-2
26
44
53
49
56
61
62
61
61
-1
0
7
5
32
2*6
3*5
-1.6
14.0
2*6
4*3
6*7
-3.2
2*4
143*8
153.9
150.7
153.9
NA
154.2
155*1
NA
0.6
NA
2.1
NA
71
26.81
29*13
28.44
29.13
NA
29*08
29.41
NA
1.1
NA
2*4
NA
65
100.4
97.8
95.1
99.5
105.5
103.4
106.3
106.9
2.8
0*6
4*6
6.0
23
100*9
102.0
101*5
99.3
-0*5
-9.9
15.6
-11.4
25
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventories:
*71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories*., Bil.dol., EOP...
65, Book value, manufacturers'
inventories
do
of finished goods4
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23, Industrial materials prices®
1957-59=100
Stock Prices:
*19, Stock prices, 500 common stocks®
1941-43=10
91*9
98.7
99*9
105*2
Ann. rate, bit. dol.
48.1
51.0
51*2
52.8
Percent
15. Profits (after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg.2.
*17, Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
1957-59=100 ....
12.0
11.6
11.7
5*1
98*7
98.9
98.8
99.2
Profits and Profit Margins:
....
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
Ponfc
NA
NA
NA
5.0
100.7
99.2
11.5
5*1
98.7
106*3
106.7
109.0
109.4
109.0
109.7
109.9
110.3
111.4
111*7
110.9
111.3
0.706
106.0
0.725
110.3
0.725
111.1
0.733
111.8
NA
112.9
112.6
8.6
11*0
11.6
5.1
-2.2
5*3
-4.1
19
3.1
NA
16
0.2
0.0
0*0
NA
NA
0*2
22
15
17
98.8
0*4
111.4
111.7
112.0
112.2
0.5
0*4
0.5
0.4
0.8
0*5
1.4
1*3
95
58
112*6
113.6
0*0
0.9
1*1
0.6
NA
1*0
68
62
1.0
-0.6
5.2
0.6
NA
NA
5.4
NA
1.9
-8.7
MA
NA
4*2
0*2
7.2
6.8
-13.9
-9.3
NA
NA
-1.7
NA
98
85
33
113
112
110
3*5
-20. 5
14
0*20
39
-0*4
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, indus. commodities © . 1957-59=100 ....
do
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods® .
LAGGING INDICATORS
Unit Labor Costs:
68, Labor cost per unit of gross product,
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
nniinrc
1957-59=100 ....
B6. Money and Credit
LEADING INDICATORS
Flows of Money and Credit:
96. Change in 2money supply and time
Ann. rate, percent
deposits
do
85. Change in money supply22
Ann. rate, oil. dol.
33, Change in mortgage debt
2
do
*113. Change in consumer installment
debt ...
do
112. Change in business loans 2
do .......
110. Total private borrowing
Credit Difficulties:
do
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv.3)<g>,
39. Delinquency 2rate,
installment loans
(inverted^) A
Percent, EOP ...
10.5
-2.3
-3.6
-4.2
6.2
NA
NA
NA
9*6
8.4
66.4
77.7
18*3
10*0
4.8
84*0
1.27
0*94
0.86
0.83
1.00
0*90
1.08
1.01
-20*0
6.5
1*74
1.71
1.56
1*71
1.51
NA
1.51
NA
NA
NA
-206
-183
-236
-606
-480
-596
-741
116
145
53
370
93
5.34
6.84
5.26
4.45
5.23
6*71
5.07
4.31
5.58
7.05
5.42
4*64
6.14
7.46
6*18
7*29
5.74
4.85
6.16
7.33
5.86
4.98
6.08
7.76
6.05
5.26
-0*02
0*04
0.12
0.13
-0*08
0*43
0.35
0.34
0*35
0*33
0.56
0*41
0*46
0*39
114
116
115
117
16.7
3.2
4.4
20.1
8*9
7*6
22.5
10.2
12.0
89*7
20.9
7.7
17*1
10.3
-3.0
NA
-0.15
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted *f ®
Money Market Interest Rates:
114, Treasury bill rate 2 ®2
116. Corporate bond yields2 <g)
115. Treasury bond yields 2®
117. Municipal bond yields <a
Million dollars...
Percent
do
do
do
,
194
4.33
6.08
4*85
3.94
5*88
5.03
0.19
0.29
1
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
Basic data1
1967
1968
3dQ
1968
4th Q
1968
Percent change
IstQ
1969
Jan.
1969
Jan,
to
Feb.
1969
Feb.
1969
Mar.
1969
89.5
74.7
NA
74*7
i.a
8*05
NA
Feb.
to
Mar.
1969
3dQ
to
4th Q
1968
4th Q
to
IstQ
1969
I Series number
Series title
Unit
of
measure
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
66. Money and Cr«dit--Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment debt4
Bil.dol., EOP...
*72, Com, and industrial loans outstanding *. , . . . , . do
65.1
86.1
72.3
Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages:
*67. Bank rates on short-term bus.
loans a<g>. . .
118, Mortgage yields, residential2 (g>
6.00
6.56
6*68
6*89
7.19
7.35
do
79*2
85.5
69*2
88*1
72.3
NA
74*7
6.61
7.38
7.32
8.02
NA
7.99
-0*3
0.9
-4,3
88.7
73.4
0*9
NA
0.0
0.06
3*0
4*9
NA
3*3
66
72
-0.26
0.03
0*71
0.64
67
118
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
01. Portion Tradt
500, Merchandise trad* balance3
Ann. rate.bil.dol..
do
502, Exports excluding military aid
506, Export orders, durable goods except motor
do
vehicles
,
508, Export orders, nonelectrical machinery. . . .1957-59*100....
Ann,rate,bil,dol..
4.1
1*0
1.9
0.2
500
31*0
34*1
36.1
34.3
30.3
25.1
27.6
38*4
10-0
39.1
-5*0
-11*7
502
10.8
11*9
11.3
13.1
10.0
15*3
238
31*9
NA
NA
53*0
-1.7
31.8
NA
NA
12.?,
IS. 9
-4*4
0*0
NA
NA
-10*5
506
508
512
3.74
-0.67
NA
NA
520
522
26.9
33*1
34.2
34.2
NA
NA
30*6
-3.57
-3.40
0*16
1.62
0.22
1*69
3.96
1.02
NA
NA
-5*4
-2*8
230
241
249
238
242
24.2
35.8
D2. U.S. Boloncc of Payments
520 Liouiditv balance basis^ 2
522 Official settlements basis
do
do
03. Ffdorol Government Activities
600. Federal surplus or deficit, national
... do
income and product accounts2
-12.4
601. Federal receipts, national income and
.... do
product accounts
151*2
602, Federal expenditures, national income
do
and product accounts
163*6
do
264 National defense purchases
72.4
do ..... 81*0
616, Defense Dept. obligations, total. .,.,....
621, Defense Dept. obligations, procurement , . .
do
26.1
do
647. New orders, defense products industries. . .
42.5
do
648. New orders, defense products
NA
do
625, Military contract awards in U S
42*3
0.2
NA
3.0
NA
600
2.7
NA
601
1.4
0*4
NA
NA
-5*4
-12.4
NA
602
264
616
621
647
640
62S
176.9
182*1
187*0
NA
182.2
184*9
186,9
189*5
80.0
80.3
78.9
86.6
28.9
47.5
NA
42.3
79.6
92.8
33*4
44.5
24.6
43*8
NA
-8.1
-4.3
9.3
25.3
5.5
*A
NA
-22.2
-.27*1
NA
1*
0.
~7.
-18*
12.
7.3
1.4
0.4
0.4
0.8
0.9
1.1
0.5
1.2
1.6
781
750
0*2
-0.1
890
0.7
NA
891
NA
0.0
NA
892
0.1
1.9
0.7
893
7.9
-14.7
894
6.1
1.0
0.0
NA
895
858
47.3
48*2
23*3
NA
22.1
41.6
86*6
26*5
52.7
27.7
43.9
123.3
109*5
124*8
111*2
124.1
110.7
124*6
111.1
125.6
111.7
84*1
1.53
NA
85«6
27.1
50.0
26 . 6
44.4
NA
NA
94.2
27.7
NA
NA
41.0
20.2
D4. Price Movements
1957-59-100 ....
781, Consumer prices all items ©
do
750. Wholesale prices, all commodities <§),.,.
116*3
106.1
121*2
108*7
121*9
109.0
85.3
84*5
84*0
84.2
1.58
1*54
1.53
1.54
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2. Analytical Ratios
850, Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing2. . Percent
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing
Ratio
and trade . .
852, Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, mfrs.'
do
853, Ratio, production of business equipment
to consumer goods
1957-59^100....
854. Ratio, personal savings to disposable
Ratio
personal income
855, Ratio, nonagrlcultural job openings
do
unfilled to persons unemployed
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm. . 1957-59=400 ....
856. Real average hourly earnings, production
workers, manufacturing
1957-59 dollars..
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri, production or nonsupv. workers . .
do
857, Vacancy rate in total rental housing 2<§x . . Percent
3*48
123*3
3,26
NA
NA
3.31
3.26
118.4
117.1
118.8
119.6
0.058
0*139
NA
0.074
0*069
0.063
0*068
0*121
129*0
0.133
133.2
0*131
133.5
0*139
134.8
2*43
2*48
2*49
78.07
6*2
78.84
5*4
79*27
5*4
2.50
2.50
78.95
4.9
79.19
NA
1.54
3.22
119.3
0*141
3*18
119.7
0*143
2*51
2.50
79.10
79.28
NA
119.8
0*134
2.49
79.20
-0.6
-1*2
0.3
1.4
-0*4
0.2
NA
-6.3
^0.4
-0.1
0.4
-0.4
-0.3
0*0
BS6
0.3
NA
899
897
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated by®, which appear to contain no seasonal movement. "Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. NA -- not available.
a - anticipated,
EOP = end of period.
l
ln many oases, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits or are in different units than those shewn in the tables in part II. Where available, annual
figures are those published "by the source agencies or they are rounded from published figures; otherwise they (and the quarterly figures for monthly series)
are averages or totals of the data as shown in part II.
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
3
Xnvorted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed,
4
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.
Section
A
Chart Al
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
W)
P
(An*)
If
200.6NP in current dollars, Q ann. rate, bit. dol.
210. Implicit price deflator, 0 (index: 1958=100}
D
215. Per capita GNP in current dollars, Q [am. rate, tttous. dol.)
217. Per capita GNP to 1958 dollars,
Q [ann. rate, thous. dol.)
Current data for these series are shown on page 64.
APRIL 1969
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
[ Chart A2 1 NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
(Nov.) (Set)
P
(July) {^L}
P- I
T
« (fe&.)
P T
cwrert (Wtorstl| (ann.
Disposable personal income current
225. Disposable person* heome, 1958 dolars
Q [aim.
226. Per capita disposabfe pefsonat
Q (arm. rate, thous. doi.)
227, Per capita disposal* personal i
Q (aw. rate, ttwes. dotf
1948 49
§©
iJl
Current data for these series are shown on page 64.
10
APRIL 1969
BCD
WOD
Section A
Chart A3
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Annual rate, frOJondoBars
Personal consumption expenditures«—-^
230. Total, current dolars, Q
231. Total, 1958 dollars, Q
232. Durable goods, total, current dollars, Q
233. Durable goods, total excluding automobiles,
current dollars, Q
234. Automobiles, current dollars, Q
236. Nondurable goods, total, current dollars, Q
237. Services, total, current dollars, Q
Current data tor these series ore shown on page 65,
IICII APRIL 1969
11
Section A
Chart A4 1 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
(let)
(Jaly) (Apr.)
P
T
Annual rate, b'ill&n dolfars |current) |
Q
Gross private domestic investment—
240. Total, Q
241. Nonresidential ftxed investment, total, Q
243. Producers' durable equipment, Q
245. Change in business inventories, Q'
63
64
Current data for these series are shown on page 65.
12
APRIL
1969
Section A
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
IP
T
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
250. Net exports of goods and services, 0
252. Exports of goods and services, Q
41 =
40-
35-
253. Imports of goods and services, Q
1QJ
54
SI
58
59
Current data for these series are shown on page 66.
APRIL 1969
13
Section A
Chart A6
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
(MOT.) (W.)
P
I
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
Government purchases of goods and servtces-
260. Federal, state, and focal governments, Q
266. State and local governments, Q
49
i©
§31
Currant data for those tor to* are shown on page 66.
14
APRIL 1969
Section A
Chart A7
FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES
(Nov.) (Del)
P
I
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T •
(July) (Apr.)
P
I
(May) (fet)
P
T
270, Final sates, durable goods, Q
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods, Q
274.Final sales/nondurable goods, Q
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods, Q
Current data for these series are shown on page 66.
APRIL 1969
15
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME APiD
[_Chart A8 ] NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
(Aug.)
I
) (Apr.)
I
(EsSay) {lets.)
P f
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
280. Compensation of employees, Q
286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment, Q
49
S©
ill
§1
53
54
Current data for theso iories are shown on pages 66 and 67.
16
APRIL 1969
BCD
Section A
(July)
(Aug.)
P
I
(Mis?) (Apr.)
F
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current!
290. Gross saving {private and government], Q
292. Personal saving, Q
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment, Q
SI
©2
Current data for these series are shown on page 67.
IICII APRIL
1969
17
Section
B
PYPS
IPAI
L? I LpLJ^rlLa
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Qchart Bl ] EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Leading Indicators
(N®v.) (Oet)
(Jyly)
(tog.)
(Wy) (Apr.)
(May) p5i)
Marginal Employment Adjustments
*1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing (hours)
41
*4. Nonagrfcultural placements, all industries (thousands)
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees)
5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance (thousands-inverted scale)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees-inverted scale)
Current data for these serioi are shown on page 68.
18
APRIL 1969
Section B
CYCUC^l TOMCAT©i§° Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Mow.) (Get)
P
I
(July)
(Aug.)
P
I
(July) (Apr.)
P
I
(May) (fcb.
P T
49. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled (thousands
46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1957-59=100)
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (ann. rate, bil. man-hours)
Ml. Employees on nonagriculturai payrolls (millions)
42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (millions)
Current data for these series are shown on pages 68 and 69.
ltd)
APRIL 1969
19
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
[ Chart:_ Bl J
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
Comprehensive Unemployment
*43. Unemployment rate, total (percent - inverted scale)
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate (percent - inverted scale}
40. Unemployment rate, married males (percent - inverted scale)
Lagging Indicators
Long - Duration Unemployment
*44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent - inverted scale)
Current data for those sones arc shown on page 69.
20
APRIL 1969
KCII
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
Chart B2
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Mov.) (@st)
P
T
(Aug.)
Comprehensive Production
*200, GNP in current dollars, Q (arm. rate, bil. dol.)
*205. GNP in 1958 dollars^
Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
*47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100)
CM
*52. Personal income {ann. rate, bil. dot.)
53. Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing
construction (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or tagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series; are shown on page 70.
APRIL 1969
21
Section B
I
Chart
SYCUOM, BNLDIGATORSs Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
B2 | PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
M)
IP
(Aug.)
T
(My) (Apr.)
V
1
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales (bil. do I.)
a m i n u s series 245), Q (arm. rate,tan.dol.)
*54. Sales of retail stores (bil, dol.]
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade!, no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 70.
22
APRIL 1969
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
13. New business incorporations (thousands)
5, New oiderjL durable jgOTdiiAfcstries. jbiL do!.)
Construction contracts, totaUalue iintoLl957-59-lQQ
MCD moving avg.-5-term]1
*1Q. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment {oil. dot.)
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
APRIL 1969
23
Section B
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
[ Chart 83]] FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
New Investment Commitments - Con.
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q (bit, dot.)
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries [bil, dol.j
9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial [mil. sq. ft
of floor area: Ml
7. Private nonfarm housing starts fann. rate, millions; MCD moving avg. 5-term)
*29. New building permits, private housing units (index: 1957-59=100]
'ihl* It a copyrighted series u$od by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for those series aro shown on pages 71 and 72.
24
APRIL 1969
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS: Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(Ally)
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
IP
I
(May) (Feb.)
.
P
I
Backlog of Investment Commitments
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries [bit, dol.)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q (fail, dol.)
Lagging Indicators
Investment Expenditures
*61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, 0 {ann, rate, oil. dol)
120 =
69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction
expenditures (ann. rate, bil. dot.)
§3
54
55
56
57
59
6©
Current data for these series are shown on page 72,
ItCIt
APRIL 1969
25
Section B
K
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Lchart B4J INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
(My) (Apr.)
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
*,„, ^ ^. ?45^£hangein.business inventories, all industries, Q (ann. rat9, bit, dol.) -
*3L Clwflge ifl-bwk-val«*, wawtfacturing afld twd* i
(ann. rate, bit. dol; MCD moving avg.-5-term]
37. Purchased matsriils, psrcsnt of companies rsportinff hightr invftntofics =
TO.^Change in hook.value, manufacturers' imientoiies of matoials.and supplies
(aim. rate, bil. dol.; MCO movins avg.-6-term]
V
f
6. Buying policy, production materials, percent of companies
reporting commitments 60 days or longer
Current data for those series are shown on page 73.
26
APRIL
1969
BCII
o Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
Chart B4 I INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
)tf.)
(Get)
5
T
(My) (flpr.)
Inventory Investment and Purchasing - Con.
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower deliveries
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries
Lagging Indicators
*7t. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories (nil. dol.j
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, finished goods Ibil. dol.)
I
§2
S3
59
©3
NOTE; For this economic process (i.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 73.
ItCII APRIL 1969
27
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS: Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Qchart BsJ PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
I
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(ftugj
I
Way) (fcb.)
P I
Sensitive Commodity Prices
1601
*23. industrial materials prices (index: 1957-59=100)
D
120-
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks [index: 194143=101
*16. Corporate profits after taxes, Q {arm, rate, bil. dol.
22. Ratio, profits (after taxes) to income originating
cofpofate, all inrfustiies. Q [percent]
15. Profits [after taxes] per dollar of sales, manufacturing, Q Jcentsj
prices to unit MibTws!^
19
50
§i
52
53
S4
5§
§4
©5
66
Current data for those series arc shown on page 74.
28
APRIL 1969
licit
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS: Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
I
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
F T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
120-
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices
115-
55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities (index: 1957-59*100)
105-
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods (index: 1957-59=100)
Lagging Indicators
Q JO - :
68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of real corporate gross product, Q (dollars)
0.700.65 J
125120-
115*62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1957-59-100)
110 =
105-
10095-
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
99
60
61
62
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 74.
ItCII APRIL 1969
29
Ss Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
Chart B6
MONEY AND CREDIT
Leading Indicators
Flows of Money and Credit
98. Change tn money suppty and time deposits (ann. rate, percent;
MCO moving avfc-6-terml
85. Change in money supply (ann. rate, percent; MCD moving avg.-6-temi]
33. Change in mortgage debt (ann. rate, bit. dol.)
*113. Change in consumer installment debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
112; Change in business loans (am. rate, bi. dol.
MCD moving avg-6-term)
tftS>
^3
Current data for these serlei are shown on page 75.
30
APRIL
1969
BCII
Section B
S: Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B6
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(lily)
IP
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
I
(May) (
f>
Flows of Money and Credit - Con.
110. Total private borrowing, 0 (am. rate, bil, dol.j
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total installment loans
[percent - inverted scale)
§©
SI
52
53
5'
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
ItUI
APRIL 1969
31
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
I Chart B6
B6~] MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
I
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
P
T
=1.0
TlTnSTreserTes" (bOol. ^"inverted"scalel
-O.S
116, Corporate bond yields (percent]
115. Treasury bond yields (percent)
117. Municipal bond yields (percent)
19
SO
SI
S3
53
§4
§6
56
S7
61
62
S3
67
68
6i
Current dota for those series arc shown on page 76.
32
APRIL 1969
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(Nov.) (to.)
p
T
(Aug.)
T
66. Consumer installment debt (bit. dol.)
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large commercial banks (bil. dot.)
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, Q [percent)
118. Mortgage yields, residential (percent)
50
§1
52
53
54
55
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
APRIL 1969
33
i°- Selected Indicators by Timing
Section B
Chart
B7
(Nov.) (Oc«.)
P
I
COMPOSITE INDEXES
> (flpr.)
I
(May) (Fife.)
0»
I
Index: 1963-100
8tO, Twelve teaditig hnttcators, reverse ifefid adjusted
820. Tive coincident indicators, estimated aggregate
.economic activity Iseries 4tt 43,47,52.561
830. Six lagging indicators (series 44; «t, «2t 67, Tt/Tfl
12S
Current data for these series are shown on page 77. Numbers entered on the chart Indicate length of '«ads (-) eind lags (+) In months from reference turning dates.
1 Reverse trend odjusted Index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the Index of 5 coincident Indicator*,.
34
APRIL 1969
BCII
Section B
YCOCM, PO»T©li° Selected Indicators by Timing
E3
Chart B7 I COMPOSITE INDEXES—Con.
Leading Indicator Subgroups
jsenessJJ, 5]
815. inventory investment and purchasing (series 23, 25, 31, 37)
Sensitive financialJows (^ies J33r85412, mi
Current data for these series are shown on page 77.
APRIL 1969
35
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS: Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart
NBER SHORT LIST
B8
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oet)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
p
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
I
(May) (feb.)
P
T
*1. Average workweek, production workers/manufacturing (hours)
*4. Nonagrieultural placements, all industries (thousands)
*12. Net business formation (index: 1957-59=100]
*6. New orders, durable goods industries (bit dol.)
*10 Contracts and orders, plant and equipment (bil. dol.)
*29Tltew fiuildirtg permits, privateTiousifijf units (index: T957-59=IOO)
57
58
§9
SO
SI
62
S3
87
68
69 19
Current data for those series are shown on pages 68, 71, and 72.
36
APRIL 1969
ltd)
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS: Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(NOT,) (Oct.)
I
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(Apr.)
P " T
(May) (ftb.)
P T
*3t. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories
HTtadUstrial materials priceslndex: 1957-59=100) "*
*19. Stock prices, 50lfcommon~stocks [index: 1941-43-10)
*16. Corporate profits after taxes, Q (ann. rate, fail, dot.)
*17, Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing (index: 1957-59=100]
*113. Change in consumer installment debt (ann. rate, bit. dot.
50
51
52
S3
54
55
56
57
58
59
Current data for these series are shown on pages 73, 74, and 75.
APRIL 1969
37
selected Indicators by Timing
Section B
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
*200. GNP in current dollars, Q (ana rate, bit. dol.)
*205. GNP in 1958 dollars,
Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
"47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100)
*52. Personal income (ann. rate, bit. dot.)
*56. Manufacturing and trade
sales (bil. dol.]
+54. Sales of retail stores |btl. dol.)
*41. Employees on nonagricurtural payrolls (miions]
*43. Unemployment rate, total (percent-inverted scale)
Current data for th«io torles ore shown on pages 69 and 70.
38
APRIL
1969
ItOI
Selected Indicators by Timing
Section B
Chart BST] NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Lagging Indicators
p
(May) (M)
i
(P
I
*44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over [percent - inverted scale)
*61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Q (arm. rate, bil. dol.)
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories [bil. dol.)
*6£ Labor cost per unit 6fliutputrmaiiufac®ng pnWx: iS57-5Rffi]
Commercial and irKfuStrialloans SutstaMng, wfcekfy reporting
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, Q percent
Current data for these series are shown on pages 69, 72, 73, 74, and 76.
APRIL 1969
39
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
I Chart
Ctart Cl J AGGREGATE SERIES
(July)
P
(Apr.)
I
(May)
F
(Fell.)
T
61. Business expenditures for new plant
amiI equipment, att industries, Q
(a) Actual expenditures
(ami. rate, bit. dot.)
- — ' = -'
:,ii
A
- ~
-
'•
•--•—-
- '
--»--'
-•-
*"
— V.-™-,-
-^
----^-^;,^^^^=,-.,-
.,
S.-:,
».-,:
.. -
S
- -
^,_ + ^ ^ ^ , ^ ^ . . ; ^ . .. = _
=
.,„ ^^ . .
^._,^-.^..
,.._T>
,_,„
. ,x ..^ .
„
^
.,^..~
-.^,.
..,
,;,
:„,,
,-„ _ -- _
5-
.
, __
;_
.- . . _
m-i
(b) Second anticipations as
m!
9
i- n
1 10t I ? o T l o t ? « ? ? c ?!?.
o ?,1
o
,-.--._.,, = , ^ _ „„..,- -J.^,..,f^,- „_
,^*.», . .-...^
NT
w«
o
„. .. . a
J
@r
1W^
r»
11,1
(c) First anticipations as
ii 1 .1 tilt, tin .1? J
i
§8
§9
Ji
| H l[
60
S3
u
,tM .it
B
100 «
*
i
m*
64
Current data for these terlas are ihown on page 78.
40
APRIL 1969
BCII
Section C
AGGREGATE SERIES™Con.
(flpr.)
If
410. Manufacturers' sates, total value, Q (fail. doU
412. Manufacturers' inventories, total
book value, Q fbil. dol.)
414. Condition of manufacturers' inventories:
percent considered high less percent
considered tow, Q (percent)
416. Adequacy of manufacturers' capacity: percent
considered inadequate less percent considered
excessive, Q (percent)
_
19H
Current data for these series ore shown on page 78.
APRIL
1969
41
Section C
Chart
Cl 1 AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
[Actual
—~ 1
I Anticipated ......,420. Current income of househoWs compared to income a year ago, Q
(a) Percent of households reporting no change in family income [percent)
(b) Percent of households reporting higher family income (percent)
|c) Percent of households reporting lower family income (percent)
425. Mean probability of substantial changes in income of households, Q
(a) Mean probability of increase in family income (percent)
(b) Increase less decrease (percent)
(c) Mean probability of decrease in family income (percent)
430. Nwnbw of now cars pwcnased by households, 0
(ann. rate, mil, cars)
(a) Actual (quarterly)
't
(b) Actual. 2-quarter moving avg.
(c) Anticipations
/
(d) Anticipations as percent of actual data (percent)
435. Index of consumer sentiment, Q (1st Q 1966-100}
Current data for these series are shown on page 78.
42
APRIL 1969
ItCII
Section C
Chart C2
DIFFUSION INDEXES
(My)
Diffusion indexes: percent rising
Iptotted at terminat quarter)
Actual
•-'
Anticipated •
0440, New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span)1
D442. Net profits manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
0444. Net sates, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)'
0446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade [4-Q sp.inj'
Current data for these series are shown on page 79.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
BCII APRIL
1969
43
Section C
Chart C2
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
Diffusion indexes: percent rising |
(ptottiid at terminal quarter)
Actual
^Anticipated »••
0450. level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span]1
\
D460, Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
0462, Selling prices, manufacturing {4-Q span)1
0464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (4-Q span)'
0466, Selling prices, retail trade (4-Q span)1
Current data for these series are shown on page 79.
'this Is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission fro.,. Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
44
APRIl 1969
ItCII
Section C
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
W) *
Diffusion indexes: percent rising
(plotted at terminal quarter)
Actual
Anticipated
D61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries (1-Q span)
0480. Freight carloadings (4-Q span)
480. Change in freight carloadings (4-Q span)
[millions of cars)
Current data for these series are shown on page 80.
APRIL 1969
45
Section
D
Chart Dl
FOREIGN TRADE
500. Merchandise trade balance {bil. dot.; MCD moving avg.-4-term]
502, Exports, except military aid (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-4-term)
506. Export orders, durables except motor vehicles
(bil. dol,; MCD moving avg. 6-term)
508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
(index: 1957-59=100; MCD moving avg.-4-term)
512. General imports (bil. (to!.; MCD moving avg.-4-term)
Current data /OK these series are shown on page 81.
46
APRIL 1969
BCII
Section D
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
520. Liquidity balance basis
(Change in U.S. official reserve assets and change
in liquid liabilities to ail foreigners)
522. Official settlements basis
[Change in US. official reserve assets, and change
in liquid liabilitievplus certain nonfepd liabilities^
" "
~~
Major Components, Except Military
Grants of Goods and Services
Annual rate, billion dollars
^2 Excess of receipts (inflow]
EZ3 Excess of payments (outflow]
-S25? ^
; Uqofiaity tatartde
(Outflow!-] left scale]
/
52rtlquidrty balance"
527. Net capital movements,
(outflow {-) ten:
522. Off icial settlements balanced
1250, Balance on goods ai
(surplus (+) right scale)
Current data for these series are shown on page 82. Annual totals are used prior to I960 except for series 520.
11ncludes unilateral transfers and errors and omissions.
ltd* APRIL
1969
47
Section D
©TIM KEY W
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
Major Components, Except Military Grants
of Goods and Services-Con.
Bilion dollars
530. liquid liabilities to alt foreigners, outstanding at end of period
532. Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities to
foreign official agencies, outstanding at end of period
534. U.S. official reserve assets-reserve position at end of period
Current dcrto for those series arc shown on page 82. End of year figures are used prior to 1960.
APRIL 1969
ItCII
Section D
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Goods and Services Movements,
Except Transfers Under Military Grants
Excess of receipts
Excess of payments
04-
Goods and services-
250. Balance on goods and services
Merchandise, adjusted
Investment income, military sales
and expenditures, and other services-
Current data for these series are shown on page 82. Annual totals are used prior to 1960,
APRIL 1969
49
Section D
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Investment Income, Military Sates
and Expenditures, and Other Services
Annual rate, bilicm dollars
Excess of receipts (inflow]
LZ3 Excess of payments (outflow)
Investment income-
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad
543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.
Travel-
545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.
Military sales and expenditures-
547. U.S. military expenditures abroad
.
.
*—^~
546. Military sales to foreigners
Transportation and other services548. Receipts
549. Payments
3i©^a m m en
m sa
m §§
m w/
m
Current data foe these series are shown on page 830 Annual totals ore used prior to 1960.
50
APRIL
1969
BCII
Section D
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Capital Movements, Including Errors and Omissions
Annual rate
^ Excess of receipts (inflow]
•
Excess of payments (outflow)
Direct investments-
561. U.S. investments abroad
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
Securities investments565. U.S. purchases of foreign
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
570. Government grants and capital transactions, net
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net
Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
9 APRIL 1969
51
Section D
Chart D3
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
(KlOT.) (let.)
P
T
Receipts and Expenditures
600. Federal surplus or deficit, national income and product accounts, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
601. Federal receipts, national income and product accounts, Q (ann. rate, hit. dol.)
602. Federal expenditures, national income and product accounts, Q [ann. rate, fail, dol.)
Current data for these series are shown on page 84,
52
APRIL
1969
BCII
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con.
(tat)
1
(My) (flpr.)
P
I
(May) (feb.)
P
I
Defense Indicators
264. National defense purchases, Q (aim. rate, fail, del.)
616. Defense Department obligations, total (bil. do).; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
621. Defense Department obligations, procurement
(bil. do).; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
(bit. dot; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
625. JP^contract awardsjn \}$._
(bif. dolTSciT movinglvg.-6-term
Current data for these series are shown on page 84.
licit
APRIL 1969
53
Section D
Chart
D4
PRICE MOVEMENTS
783. Commodities less food
784. Services
Currant data for thate serlas are shown on page 85.
54
APRIL 1969
BCII
©THEIR GCEY
Section D
[™Chart D4
PRICE MOVEMENTS—Con.
(Mow.) (Oct.)
P
T
Wholesale prices750. All commodities
Current data for these series are shown on page 85.
BCII APRIL
1969
55
Chart El
ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Gross National Product in 1958 dollars
s, bO. doll:
....
206. Potential 6NP'.
\y
GNP
Current data for these series are shown on page 86.
1
Trend line of 3 1/2 percent per year through middle of 1955 from 1ft quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962. 3 3/4 percent from 4th auarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, and 4 percent thereafter.
56
APRIL
1969
Section E
Chart
E 2 | ANALYTICAL RATIOS
(Ktov.) (to.)
IF
1
(JBoIj?)
IF
(tog.)
I
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing^ (percent)
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
U
U •
852. Ratio, unfitted orders to shipments,
facturers' durable goods industries
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to consumer goods
Current data for these series are shown on page 87.
BCD APRIL
1969
57
Section E
Chart E2
ANALYTICAL RATIOS—Con.
654. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income, Q
D
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled to number of persons unemployed
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm, Q [index: 1957-59 100)
856. Real average hourly earnings, production workers,
manufacturing (1957-59 dollars]
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings, nonagricultural
production or nonsupervisory workers (1957*59 dollars).
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing, Q (percent]
Current data for those series are shown on page 67.
58
APRIL 1969
Section E
Chart E3
! DIFFUSION INDEXES
Leading Indicators
Percent rising
D1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing - 21 industries (9-mo. span— , 1-mo. span---)
D6. New orders, durable goods industries - 36 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span----)
Oil. Newly approved capital appropriations - 17 industries, NICB (3-Q span***, 1-Q span*--)
034. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting higher profits - about 1,000 manufacturing corporations (1-Q span)
D19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks - 77 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo, span-—}
D23. Industrial materials prices - 13 industrial materials (9-mo. span— , 1-mo. span—-)
o
D5. Initial claims, State unemployment insurance - 47 areas (percent declining; 9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-—)
'1 D^.@
4C
g>0
<Sr
§))?
SB
£K;>
S^l
^>^
Current data for these series are shown on pages 68 and 89.
IHjll APRIL
1969
59
Section E
Chart E3 ] DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Etov.) (Oei)
filly)
(tog-)
(
I PercenUisingJ
D41. Employees on nonagricuitural payrolls - 30 industries {6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—-)
D47. Industrial production - 24 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—)
D58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods - 22 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo, span-—]
054. Safes of retail stores - 23 types of stores (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-
Current data for these series are shown on page 90.
60
APRIL
1969
DM
Fr.
Section
Lit.
Chart Fl
F
CONSUMER PRICES
Current data for these series are shown on page 97.
•ft 4 ^ |fc
BIJI APRIL 1969
61
Section F
Chart
F2
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Index: 1957-59 = 100
Industrial production 47. United States
D
B
Current data for these series are shown on page 96.
62
APRIL
1969
ltd)
Section F
Chart
STOCK PRICES
Stock prices19. United States
S3L
52
H3
Current data for these series are shown on page 99.
BCII APRIL
1969
63
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter
a. Total
b. Difference
(Ann. rate,
bit. dot.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
210. Implicit price deflator
205. Constant (1958) dollars
200. Current dollars
a. Total
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
b. Difference
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
a. Total
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
b. Difference
(Index:
(Index:
1958=100)
1958=100)
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter..,
Fourth quarter..
728.4
740.4
753-3
768.2
+18.4
+12.0
+12.9
+14.9
+10.4
+6.4
+6.8
+8.0
648.6
653.3
659.5
667.1
+12.0
+4.7
+6.2
+7.6
+7.6
+2.8
+3.6
+4.8
112.3
113.3
114.2
772.2
780.2
795.3
811.0
+4.0
+8.0
+15-1
+15.7
+2.0
+4.0
+7.6
+8.0
665.7
669.2
675.6
-1.4
+3.5
+6.4
+6.2
-0.8
+2.0
+4.0
+3.6
831.2
852.9
871.0
887.4
+20.2
+21.7
+18.1
+16.4
+10.0
692.7
703.4
712.3
718.4
+10.9
121.2,
+8.9
+6,1
+6.4
+6.0
+5.2
+3.6
P903.4
p+16.0
P723.6
P+5.2
pf2.8
+0.8
+1.0
+0.9
+1.0
+2.8
+3.6
+3.2
+3.6
116.0
116.6
117.7
118.9
+0.8
+0.6
+1.1
+1.2
+2.0
+3.6
+4.0
120.0
122.3
123.5
+1.1
+1.2
+1.1
+1.2
+3.6
+4.0
+3.6
+4.0
P124.8
P+-1.3
1*4.4
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter,..
Fourth quarter..
681.8
+2.8
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
+10.4
+8.4
+7.6
+10.7
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
I GROSS NATIONAL
PRODUCT«Con.
Year
and
quarter
215. Per capita
GNP, current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
217. Per capita 220. National
GNP, constant income in cur*
(1958) dollars
rent dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
222. Personal
income in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Disposable personal income
224, Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
225. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
226. Per capita,
current dol tars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
227. Per capita,
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate, dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter *
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter.,
3,715
3,765
3,820
3,883
3,308
3,323
3,344
3,372
604.0
615.1
626.7
637.3
3,893
3,924
3,988
4,055
3,356
3,365
3,388
3,409
4,147
4,245
r4,324
r4,393
3,456
3,501
3,536
3,556
705.4
722.5
r735.1
P4,462
P3,574
570.4
580.3
592.1
604.5
500.0
505.5
515.4
525.4
454.1
454.6
461.4
466.6
2,550
2,571
2,613
2,656
2,316
2,312
2,340
2,359
645.1
656.9
670.9
621.6
633.7
645.2
534.2
541.5
550.0
559.6
471.9
476.3
479.5
483.7
2,693
2,723
2,758
2,798
2,379
2,395
2,404
2,418
688.1
662.7
491.8
497.1
2,866
694-3
708.2
574.4
586.3
592.7
602.4
499.2
501.7
2,942
2,982
2,454
2,474
2,478
2,483
P721.4
p608.6
P502.2
p3,006
p2,480
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
638.6
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
678.1
2,918
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
(HA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; *a\ anticipated; and 'NA", not available.
64
APRIL 1969
BCII
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
230. Total in
current dollars
Year
and
quarter
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
232. Durable goods, 233. Durable goods, 234, Automobiles
total in current
in current dollars
total except autos,
dollars
in current dollars
231. Total in
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
237. Services in
current dollars
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1966
469.3
473.7
415.7
414.8
420.0
420.6
71.6
68.2
71.0
71.1
44.7
44.2
45.8
45.8
26.9
24.0
25.2
25.3
202.8
206.3
208.3
209.3
183.4
186.7
190.0
193.3
480.9
490.3
495.5
502.2
424.8
431.2
431.8
434.1
•69.8
73.4
73.1
74.2
46.7
47.6
47.7
48.9
23.1
25.8
25-4
25.3
212.9
215.3
216.4
218.4
198.2
201.6
205.9
209.6
519.4
527.9
541.1
546.8
444-9
447.5
455.7
455.4
79.0
81.0
85.1
85.1
50.6
52.0
53.5
53.8
28.4
29.0
31.6
31.3
226.5
228.2
232.7
233.7
213.9
218.7
223.4
228.0
(NA)
p86.9
(NA)
(NA)
P239.1
P232.4
457.8
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
461.1
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter-.
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
P558.4
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
240. Total
241. Nonresidential
fixed investment
242. Nonresidential
structures
243. Producers'
durable equipment
244. Residential
structures
245. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. doi.)
pton. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol,)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
and
quarter
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
116.8
121.0
119-9
125.7
78.6
79.8
82.6
84.2
28.6
28.1
28.9
28.2
50.0
51-7
53.7
55.9
27.3
25.8
24.4
21.7
+10.9
+15.4
+12.8
+19.8
113.0
107.6
114-7
121.8
83.5
82.7
83.3
85.0
29.0
27.2
27.7
27.7
54.5
55.5
55.6
57.3
21.1
22.7
26.0
28.5
+8.4
+2.3
+5.3
+8.3
119.7
127.3
88.6
87.0
90.1
94.3
29.6
28.5
28.8
29.9
59.0
58.5
61.3
64.5
29.1
29.5
29-5
31.6
+2.1
+10.8
+7.5
+10.6
P138.9
P99.8
P32.5
P67.3
P32.7
p+6.4
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book.The V indicates revised; *p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and *NA", not available.
ltd) APRIL
1969
65
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Qj FOREIGN TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
B
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
250. Net exports
of goods and
services
252. Exports
of goods and
services
253, Imports
of goods and
services
260. Total
262. Federal
264. National
defense
266. State and
local
(Ann. rate,
bit. dot.)
(Ann. rate,
bit. dot,)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1966
First Quarter
Second quarter. . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter. ....
1967
First quarter. .....
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter. • • . * *
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter ....
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
+6.0
+5.2
+4.5
+4.5
42.1
42.6
43.6
44.2
36.1
37.3
39.1
39.7
147.8
153.1
159.5
164.3
72.5
75.6
79.9
81.5
55.3
58.6
63.0
65.4
75.3
77.4
79.7
82.7
+5.2
+5.1
+5.4
+3.4
45.5
45.5
46.1
46.0
40.3
40.4
40.6
42.6
173.1
177.3
179-6
183.5
87.4
90.0
91.3
93.5
70.0
72.1
72.9
74.6
85.8
87.2
88.4
90.0
+1.5
+2.0
+3.3
+1.0
47.5
49.9
52.6
50.1
46.0
47.9
49.4
49.1
190.5
195.7
199.6
203.0
97.1
100.0
101.2
101.7
76.8
79.0
79.6
80.0
93.4
95.6
98.4
101.2
pO.O
P47.2
P47.2
p206.2
p!02.3
p80.3
P103.9
Q| FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
Durable goods
270. Final sales 271". Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)'
1966
First quarter
Second quarter ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter. ... .
1967
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
First quarter. .....
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter.
Nondurable goods
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
274. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil, dol.)
275. Change in
business
inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
H
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
280. Compensation
of employees
282. Proprietors'
income
284. Rental income
of persons
(Ann. rate,
bil, dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
U2.2
147.3
150.2
143.3
+7.6
+9.9
+10.5
+13.6
217.3
220.4
223.7
225.1
+3.3
+5.5
+2.4
+6.3
420.6
430.8
441.4
449.7
61.5
60.8
60.2
60.2
19.5
19.7
19.9
20.0
151.1
157.1
157.3
159.9
+3.3
+0.6
+3.8
+4.2
230.4
234.7
236.2
236.6
+5.0
+1.7
+1.6
+4.1
456.7
461.8
471.5
482.7
60.1
60.5
61.2
61.1
20.1
20.2
20.4
20.5
166.7
169.1
175.1
177.8
+1.5
+6.2
+4.9
+5*6
246.1
248.5
254.4
254-6
+0.6
+4.6
+2.5
-r-5.0
496.8
507.1
519.7
530.7
61.8
62.6
63.4
63.7
20.7
20.9
21.0
21.2
(NA)
(NA)
P544.8
P63.7
p21.4
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; V, preliminary;
"e"t estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
66
APRIL
1969
BCII
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
H
Year
and
quarter
1966
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter ....
1967
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Thifd quarter. .....
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
INCURRENTDOLLARS-Con.
0
SAVING IN CURRENT DOLLARS
286. Corporate
profits and
inventory valuation adjustment
288, Net interest
290. Gross saving
292. Personal
saving
294. Undistributed
corporate profits
plus inventory valuation adjustment
296. Capital consumption
allowances
298. Government
surplus or deficit
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol,)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot,)
82.7
83-4
84.2
85.3
19.8
20.4
21.1
22.0
121.4
127.1
126.0
130.7
29.5
31.4
32.9
38.1
26.5
26.9
27.2
29.4
62.3
63.5
64.7
65.9
+3.0
+5.3
79.5
79.6
80.2
82.3
22.2
22.9
23.6
24.3
118.0
113.0
120.1
126.9
39.7
37.0
40.5
43.4
24.2
23.4
23.5
24.8
67.1
68.4
70.0
71.1
-12.9
-15.9
-14.0
-12.5
83-8
89.2
91.6
r91.8
25.0
25.8
26.7
27.6
123.3
130.1
132.9
rl40.3
40.8
44.0
37.1
40,9
20.4
23.6
r23.7
72.3
73.7
74.9
76.2
-10.3
-11.3
-4*1
-0,4
p28.5
(NA)
P35.3
(NA)
P77.5
(NA)
(NA)
25*0
+1.2
-2.6
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series reMonsf 'ps or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p",preliminary;
V, estimated; "a9, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
APRIL
1969
67
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
H| EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
^^M
LEADING INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments
Job Vacancies
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
*1. Average workweek of production
workers,
manufacturing1
*4. Nonagricultural
placements, all
industries1
2. Accession rate,
manufacturing1
5. Average weekly
initial claims for
unemployment
insurance, State
programs *
(Hours)
(Thous.)
(Per 100 employees)
(Thous.)
1967
January
February
March
41.0
40.3
40.4
April
May ... .... , .
June
40.5
40,5
40.4
July
August
September
40.5
40.6
40.9
481
October
November
December
40,7
40.7
40.7
L71
3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing
(Per 100 employees)
49. Nonagricultural
job openings unfilled1
46. Index of helpwanted advertising
in newspapers
(Thous.)
(1957-59-100)
CIO
46
196
1L
QQC
cf\r\
4 3
L1
2^1
2*>6
1 5
17
07Q
^ f7
4 2
4 6'
4 5
259
2^6
231
14
14
14
qco
J?^
OCT
J!?Joro
J??*
4 4
4,4
4*4
231
2X2
217
14
1.3
13
OCf)
jpu
3*>L.
361
4*5
4.5
4 4
220
12
1.2
12
358
354
348
4.5
4.5
4.1
206
196
194
1.4
1.4
1.2
OCQ
^?7
1SL.
A7l
481
^A^
•37T
^°^
^r-L
193
202
L&7
L 7
OQJ
486
1 1
13
1 1
T Aft
46
4.5
193
195
194
ortn
L.7S
Ift7
IftO
4 .0/
IftQ1
jLBy
1.2
5JU:
m*.
1 QO
4.02
t AC
i ftn
1 Aq
403
l.rjft
rfto
A7A
l.nc
**fs
209
204
IftO
iO7
TOO
.LTV
T AA
<iAA
;JOO
17it
169
180
181
186
187
1968
January
February
March
40.2
40.8
40.7
April
May
June
40.1
40.9
40.9
July
August
September
/i.0 Q
520
40.7
I n i
41.1
A.77
478
4.5
4.7
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
41.0
466
454
443
4 8
Lf\ e>
40.7
40 6
r40 1
n/*.0.6
A.78
448
r459
P431
A. 7
L 7
r4.9
D/t 6
(NA)
TOO
1
99
1.3
TQI
J-?4
1.2
188
190
11
11
10
190
§C> 179
186
184
rl.l
pl.O
^""^ (NA)
fc>
_?OU
^7M-
•5rtA
^oo
07*:
185
198
n/L7
JO^
?76
-?
fO
219
213
222
JJ070
f*
•370
^7?
07 c
^rP
n^A^
O9A
221
OOQ
Gr*^^ ^2^2
(Jl^.>
?<•=?*•
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
B>.. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
I
Series that reached their high values prior to 1967 are as follows: Series 1, high value (41.6) reached in Feb. 1966; Series
4, high value (586), in May 1962; Series 2, high value (5.2), in Mar. 1966; Series 49, high value (437), in July 1966. nData
exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
APRIL 1969
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS
Qj EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Con.
....
LAGGING
INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS-Con.
Minor Economic
Process
Comprehensive Employment
48. Man-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments
42. Persons
engaged in
nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey
(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)
*41. Number of
employees on
nonagricultural
payrolls,
establishment
survey
(Thous.)
131.56
131.07
131.00
65,524
65,646
65,672
70, 137
70,188
69,935
3.7
3.7
3.7
130.6?
130.95
131.39
65,619
65,677
65,821
70,1M
69,804
70,407
3-3
3-9
3-9
2.7
July
August
September
131.52
132.22
132.40
65,920
66,186
66,123
70,649
70,721
70,929
October
November
December
132.23
133-72
133.23
66,286
66,778
67,060
132.16
134,38
133.80
Year
and
month
1967
January
February
March
Long-Duration
Unemployment
Comprehensive Unemployment
(Thous.)
*43. Unemployment rate, total
(Percent)
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs1^
(Percent)
40. Unemployment rate,
married males
(Percent)
*44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15
weeks and over
(Percent)
1.8
1.7
1.8
0.6
0,6
0.6
2.6
1.9
1.9
1.9
0.6
0.6
0.6
3.9
3.8
4.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
1.8
1.9
1.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
71,023
71,135
71,293
4.2
3.8
3.7
2.3
2.3
1.8
1.8
1.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
67,058
67,600
67,656
71,124
71,566
71,786
3.6
3.7
3.7
2.3
2.2
1.7
1.7
1.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
134.01
134. 68
135.46
67,755
67,792
68,039
71,737
72,027
72,156
3-5
3.6
3-7
2,1
2,2
2.2
1.6
1.6
1.7
0.5
0.5
0.5
July
August
September
135. 89
136.26
136.30
68,170
68,314
68,382
72,195
72,222
72,349
3.7
3-5
3.6
2.3
2.3
2.1
1.6
1.6
1.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
October
November
December
136.40
136.47
136.75
68,701
68,955
69 310
72,477
72,682
72,923
3.6
3-4
3.3
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.6
1.6
1.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
r!37.69
1*137-74
C-^.
lEu-"5* fp!38.88
r69,620
r69,955
g>p70,102
73,477
73,848
f£>- 74,035
3.3
0> 3-3
3.4
2.1
2.1
1.4
1.4
IB> * *in-*-^
0.4
0.4
April
May
June
,
1968
January . .
February
March
..
April
May
June
;
2.3
2.4
2.6
2.6
2.2
2.3
1969
January
February
March
1 /
|t>o.4
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE' Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated'by B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14F 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
fc>
Series numbers are for identification only and 'do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of tne book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; V, anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
•"•Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
APRIL 1969
69
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS
Q PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
....
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
Comprehensive Production
*200. Gross na- *205. Gross na- *47. Index of
tional product
industrial protional product
in current dolduction
in 1958 dollars
lars
Year
and
month
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1967
January
February
March
Comprehensive Income
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(1957-59-100)
*52. Personal
income
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
53. Wages and
salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
*56. Manufacturing and trade
sales
(Mil.dol.)
57. Final sales
(series 200
minus series
245)
*54. Sales of
retail stores
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Mil. dot.)
772*2
665! 7
158.3
156.7
. 156.6
612.1
614.6
617.6
162.4
161.4
161.7
r88,078
r87,323
r87,632
763 *8
r25,828
r25,478
r25,758
April
May
June
780*2
669.2
156.7
155.6
155.7
618.6
620.6
625.8
161.2
161.2
162.2
r87,656
r88,0!6
r89,184
778*6
r25,940
r25,966
r26,488
July
August
September
795*3
675*6
156.4
158.3
156.8
629.8
634.2
637-0
163.2
164.9
165.2
r88,50a
r89,967
r90,n3
789*9
r26,325
r26,298
r26,899
October
November
December
811*. 6
681 .' 8
157.2
159.8
162.1
638.0
644.9
652.6
165.0
168.2
170.2
r89,072
r 90, 770
1*92,147
802*7
r26,129
r26,396
r26,545
831*2
692*7
161.2
162,0
163.0
654.9
663.0
670.0
170.2
173.8
174.2
93, 184
93,758
94,463
829 .'i
27,043
27,449
27,996
April
May
June
852 .'9
703*4
162.5
164.2
165.8
672.6
678.2
683.7
174.0
176.6
177.1
94,552
96,069
97,423
842*1
27,791
28,158
28,320
July
August
September
871 '.6
712*3
166.0
164.6
165.1
689.2
694.1
699.7
177.8
178.3
180.6
98,368
97,083
99,135
863*5
28,674
28,760
28,902
$87*4
718*4
166.0
167.5
168.7
703.2
708.0
713.5
181.9
183.2
185.6
99,675
100,242
98,671
876*.8
28,697
28,806
28,347
g> P903*.4
B>P723*6
716.1
721.4
|j£>p726.7
186.2
r!87.4
0>pl89.8
rlOO,137
^>P101,677
e>p897".o
„
1968
January
February
March
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
rl69.2
169.5
g> P170.5
\NAy
r28,989
r29,359
0>P29,585
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Current high values are
and "MA", not available,
70
APRIL 1969
BUI
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
H
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS
....
Minor Economic
Process
LEADING INDICATORS
Formation of Business
Enterprises
New Investment Commitments
*12. Index of net 13. Number of new *6. Value of
business formation business incorpora- manufacturers'
tions
new orders,
durable goods
industries
Year
and
month
1
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
(1957-59-100)
1967
January
February
March
(Number)
(Bil.dol.)
8. Index of
construction
-contracts, total
value 1
(1957-59-100)
*10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and equipment
(Bil.dol.)
102.2
103 2
16,703
23,94
126
5 Q2
15 Q87
T/.0
16 244
-L*O
~\LQ
6 V3
O.i^
103 3
2L "K
2^ 5L
103 7
2L. OA.
25 ?0
2*i 77
T^ft
.Ljjo
1 5L.
6 on
164
6 40
M,Q
TAc
6 24
f\ «;7
°Of
6 16
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations 2
(Bil.dol.)
5
.no
I*.
24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders, machinery and
equipment industries
(Bil.dol.)
c r/7
!>* W
5 .02
AO
Oft
4 .yo
April
May
June
105 o
108 1
16 760
17 627
17 799
July
August
September
103.4
110 7
110.3
16,300
17 674
18 118
24 92
25 88
25 18
168
6
October
November
December
1968
January.. .
February
March
110.6
112.7
113.8
18,000
18,403
18,168
25.68
25.85
168
6 66
6 42
28 06
166
6 L3
113.5
104.7
113.8
17,223
18,014
17,974
26.84
26.81
28.00
159
156
176
6 50
6 51
6.67
5 *n
?•**•(
1 ^A
^ ^ft
April
May
June
112.8
27-37
27.17
26.70
146
172
160
6.20
6.62
7.20
5.59
114.5
18,659
18,796
19,197
5 49
5 45
5 97
July
August
September
119.0
119.1
121.2
19,530
20,011
20,986
26.92
27.33
28.38
187
192
183
6,96
7.85
7.20
6.24
5.71
6.03
5.92
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
123.9
123.4
125.3
21,394
21,155
20,292
30.28
29.32
29.38
200
183
179
GT> S'19
^ 7.29
7.79
p6.47
20,578
K>22,199
21,353
29.68
Rp>r30.48
P29.23
. 191
@> 205
177
7.98
r7.84
P7-39
(NA)
112.7
125.2
(fe> 125.8
(NA)
6
O3
J.O
5 * 79
{*>
AO
5 .tS4.
r\r±
5 .08
5 .uy
no
qd
5 OO
ort
5 OH
1 rj
5 .47
*3 C
5 O5
on
5 o±
5
7/L
c 07
PO f
5 . en
?w
r
irj
(H-^>
13
—"^ 6.55
6.09
6 24
6.20
r6.51
p6.30
April
May
June
July
August
September
....
October
November
December
NOTE' Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by E>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14f 39, 40, 43F 44, 45r and 93), current low values are indicated by
fc>.
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
"""This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Informa2
tion Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.
This series reached its high value (6.69) in 2d quarter 1966.
BCII
APRIL 1969
71
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
0
TIMING CLASS ....
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
Minor Economic
Process
New Investment Commitments-Con.
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and industrial
buildings1
Year
and
month
(Mil. sq, ft floor
space)
1967
January
February
March
7. New private
nonfarm housing
units started
(Ann. rate, thous.)
49.09
1,079
57 84
56 14
i n2
i 067
56.2?
1 099
April
May
June
54 72
1 2*iA.
62.30
1 214
July
August
September
56.72
61 66
60 45
1 356
1 ?8l
1 415
October
November
December
56.42
63.17
64.08
January
February
March
April
May
June
FIXED CAPITAL IN VESTMENT- Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
Backlog of Investment Commitments
Investment Expenditures
*29. Index of new
private housing
units authorized by
local building
permits
96. Manufacturers'
unfit led orders,
durable goods
industries
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing
(1957-59-100)
(Bil. dot.)
(Bil. dot.)
83 1
70 Q
ft! Q
69. Machinery and
equipment sales
and business construction expenditures
(Ann. rate, fail, doL) (Ann. rate, biLdol.)
7A 7*;
77 36
rjn
Ai A*
f\o
7A /v
7A
QA
fo.yu
rye co
on j,o
90 7
91 1
97 9
7c ftp
...
7A *»?
77 31
20 25
96 4
102 3
77 82
77 QL
77 9L.
1,478
1,567
1,235
106 9
102.2
116.7
79 13
80 58
20 41
64.51
61.39
66.61
1,430
1,499
1,479
97.2
120. 0
121.4
80.49
80.59
81.75
20.49
47.09
66.96
66.35
1,562
1,345
1,348
1C/7.0
82.24
81.90
80.97
20.53
July
August
September
71.65
66.15
61.59
1,507
1,496
1,570
October
November
December
79.63
69.70
71*47
1,541
1,705
1,492
99 L
*61. Business
expenditures on
new plant and
equipment, total
OOP
Ai to
7r**-.of
A A*?
7/i
OO
f '4-. 7^
7A 9A
An 90
7A A/L
77
( f • on
TV
7ft
ZA
(G. >O
20 42
78 82
7A
f ° * 79
f7
77 9?
79 9A
62 70
1968
„
113.7
106.9
107.7
107.8
116.4
115.2
119.1
122.3
79.68
80.18
80.57
81.69
82.43
84*07
64.75
80.77
80.79
80.59
62 60
81.59
80 32
80 86
63 20
80 09
82 40
85.08
B> 65.96
86 15
88 21
21.03
KT^-t^l 64
A% Lft
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
Gr^> 94-41
69.98
63.50
6£> rl,845
rl,651
pl,522
117.2
Uj--> rl23.4
plU.5
H>
84 43
ET-5* r84.99
^^ p84.72
. ..
Y»9O OO
a71,65
ID—^*. p7-i-**4-«
n91 L&
pL*^
(NA)
(NA)
a70.85
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14, 39,40,43,44, 45, and 93)r current low values are indicated by
$8>*. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p" r preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and"NA" f not available.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.
72
APRIL 1969
BCD
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q| INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
245.. Change in *31. Change in
book value of
business 1
mfg. and trade
inventories
inventories,
total1
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
bil. dol.)
Year
and
month
1967
January
February
March
LEADING INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventory/ In vestment and Purchasing
Inventories
37. Purchased
materials, companies reporting higher
inventories1
(Percent
reporting)
20. Change in
book value of
mfrs.' inventories of mtls.1
and supplies
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
26. Production
materials, companies reporting
commitments 60
days or longer®3
{Percent
reporting)
32. Vendor
performance,
companies reporting slower
deliveries1^
(Percent
reporting)
25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries1
*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value
65. Manufacturers' inventories of
finished goods,
book value
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
+8.4
+12.8
+5.7
+5.0
48
45
46
+2.6
+0.4
+0.6
72
67
68
48
51
38
-0.63
-0.34
-0.98
138.25
138.73
139.15
25.43
25.68
25.82
April .
May
June
+2.3
+6.4
+2.9
-0.7
37
40
43
-1.6
-0.4
-0.9
67
66
68
39
36
38
-0.17
+0.65
+0.79
139.68
139.92
139.8?
26.22
26.41
26.36
July
August
September
+'5.3
+5.6
+6.7
+4.2
40
42
44
+1.4
+0.2
-2.2
61
66
61
41
43
44
+0.50
+0.12
+0.01
HO. 34
140.90
141.25
26.43
26.61
26.64
October
November
December .
+8.3
+2.6
+13.1
+14.6
8
54
+0.1
+0.6
+O.3
62
f3
64
50
51
48
+0.88
+0.31
+1.45
141.46
142.55
143.77
26.63
26.70
26.81
+2!!
+4.0
+8.6
+4.0
55
53
52
-0.5
+1.2
+0.9
64
61
64
50
55
54
-0.09
+0.10
+1.16
144.11
U4.82
145.15
26.97
27.09
27.21
+16! 8
+16.0
+15J-9
+8.6
51
55
59
+4.0
+4.7
+1.7
68
64
67
52
52
52
+0.48
-0.34
-0.93
1^6.49
147.81
148.52
27.35
27.59
27.64
+7.5
.+6.5
+10.3
+9.6
59
55
40
+3.5
+2.0
-0.9
68
66
60
56
46
46
-1.29
+0.49
+0.40
149-06
149.92
150.72
27.79
28.15
28.44
...
1968
January
February .
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
.
,
+10.' 6
+16.8
+9.8
+11.1
42
44
43
+1.9
-2.2
+0.6
62
60
60
52
60
56
+1.32
+0.54
+1»64
152.12
152.94
153.86
28.64
28.92
29.13
+6.k
r+3.8
pfll.3
(NA)
43
47
49
-0.4
-0.4
(NA)
57
58
63
62
61
61
+0.36
r+0.56
P-0.27
rl54.18
fc>pl55.12
^ (HA)
29.08
g>29.41
(NA)
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE- Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by 0>- for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45T and 93), current low values are indicated by
fe>
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1
Series that reached their high values prior to 1967 are as follows: Series 2^5, high value (+19.8) reached in £th quarter 1966;
Series 31, high value (+20.0), in June 1966; Series 37, high value (63), in Nov. 1964; Series 20, high value (+5.7), in Aug. 1966;
Series 26 high value (75), in Oct. 1966; Series 32, high value (86), in Mar. 1966; Series 25, high value (+1.82), in Sept. 1966.
ItCII APRIL 1969
73
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
0 PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices
ctA .
Stock
*23. Indexof
industrial
materials
prices©1
*19. Index of *16. Corpostock prices, rate profits1
500 common after taxes
stocks®
^rices
(1957-59-100) (1941-43-10)
Profits and Profit Margins
(Ann, rate,
bil, dol.)
22. Ratio of
profits to
income originating, corporate, all
Indus.
(Percent)
15. Profits
(after taxes)
per dollar of
sales, all mfg,
corp.
(Cents)
*17. Ratio,
price to unit
labor cost
index, mfg,
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices
Unit Labor Costs
55. Index of 58, Index of
wholesale
wholesale
prices, Indus, prices, mfd,
commod. (u)
68. Labor
cost (cur.
dol.) per unit
of gross prod.
(1958 dot.),
nonfiti. corp.
(1957-59*100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59-100) (Dollars)
*62. Indexof
labor cost
per unit of
output, mfg,
(1957-59-100)
1967
January
February
March
106.8
105.2
102.5
84.45
87.36
89.42
47.1
12.1
5.0
102.1
101.9
101,2
105.8
106.0
106.0
106.4
106.4
106.3
0.701
104.2
104.4
105.0
April
May
June
100.1
99.6
99.8
90.96
92.59
91.43
47 .*3
12!!
5^6
101.4
100.8
100.3
106.0
106.0
106.0
106.2
106.3
106.6
0.701
104.7
105.5
106.3
July
August
September
93.3
98.1
97«S
93.01
94.49
95.81
47.*6
li.'e
4*9
100,3
100.2
99.6
106.0
106.3
106.5
106.8
106.8
107.1
0.708
106.5
106.6
107.5
October
November
December
97.7
99.1
100.1
95.66
92.66
95.30
5<X3
12.2
5.*i
100.0
100.2
100.9
106.8
107.1
107.4
107.1
107.3
107.6
O.?i5
107.1
107.1
106.6
99.8
99.5
100.1
95-04
90.75
89.09
49.'l
lii?
5.'i
99.8
99.7
100.0
107.8
108.3
108,6
108.1
108.7
108.9
0.72!
108.3
109.0
108.9
April
May
June
98.3
96.1
95.6
95.67
97.87
100.53
50^7
ll.*7
5^0
100.0
99.5
99.8
108.8
108.6
108.8
109.1
109.1
109.4
0.72!
109.1
109-7
109.6
July
August
September
94.4
94.8
96.1
100.30
98.11
101.34
51.' 2
11.' 5
5.'i
99.8
98.3
98,1
108.8
108.9
109.2
109.7
109.5
109.9
0.725
in, 4
October
November
December
97.5
100.3
100.7
103.76
105.40
|>106.48
li',7
5.'l
98.5
98.8
98.7
109.7
109.9
110.2
110.0
110.3
110.5
[jj>T0.733
011.7
111.6
1X2.0
103.4
106.3
106.9
102.04
101.46
99.30
(WA)
r98.8
r99.2
P98.8
no. 9
(HA)
in. 3
in. 7
(NO
rl!2.6
rllja.6
j>*>U3.6
1968
January
February
March
• *•
|>r52l8
109.9
112.0
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
3
108. 9
3
100.71
(NA)
111.4
112.0
&>p!12.1
102.2
>pl!2.5
July
August
September .........
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by B^; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93)f current low values are indicated by
Eb>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart 88). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
^Series that reached their high values prior to 1967 are as follows: Series 23, high value (123.5) reached in Mar. 1966;
Series 22, high value (13.9), in 1st quarter 1966; Series 15, high value (5.8), in 1st quarter 1966; Series 17, high value
(105.2), in July 1966. 3Average ,for April 1, 8, and 15. 3 Aver age for April 21, 22, and 23.
74
APRIL 1969
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
B| MONEY AND CREDIT
LEADING INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Flows of Money and Credit
Year
and
month
98. Change in
money supply
and time
deposits
85. Change in
U.S. money
supply
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
33. Net change in
mortgage debt
held by fin. inst.
and life insur- 1
ance companies
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
*113. Net change 112. Change in 110. Total pribusiness loans1 vate borrowing
in consumer
installment
debt
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
3
+10.20
GO +14.52
+13 . 56
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
14. Current liabilities of business failures®
39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over, total
installment loans
(Mil. dol.)
(Percent)
2
Revised
1967
January
February
March . . .
Credit Difficulties
( )
-0.72
+10.56
+9.72
+9 77
+12 42
+10 69
+2.42
+1.42
+2.84
+7 04
-0 55
+6 83
60 804
TOft 17
TIQ A C
no 79
April
May
June
+5.28
+13.68
+14.28
-4.80
(H> +13.20
+11.04
+12 67
+15 31
+16.97
+1,08
+2.28
+3.84
+o 25
+1 63
+8.09
61 864
July
August
September
+13 . 80
+11.88
+8.04
+12.24
+7.44
+1.32
+17.75
+21.61
+21.20
+3,0$
+4-78
+3.76
+16 09
-9 19
-2.15
66 044
+7.68
+7.32
+6.00
+7.32
+5.28
+2.04
+19.82
+21.32
+20.33
+3.79
+4-69
+4.31
+5.36
+2.66
+8.39
76 936
January
February
March
+5.28
+4.92
+7.20
+6.60
+2.64
+4.56
r+20.30
r+19.67
r+19.56
+4*79
+8.83
+7,46
+11.47
r-2.39
r+3.78
AC QQO
April
May
June.
+4.20
+7.44
+6.12
+5.88
+11.76
+8.40
r+18.96
r+21.76
IH-1B.18
+7.69
+8.78
+8.59
r+19 . 57
r+2.09
r+t^yg
71,892
July
August
September
+13.44
+13.32
+6.24
+12.84
+5.76
-5.04
r+17.75
r+18.28
r+18.88
+10.28
+11.21
+8.58
r+14.02
r-4.25
r+4.55
83,972
90.27
65.77
58.65
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
+11.16
+12.60
+10.92
+4.44
+10.68
+7.56
r+20.39
r+21.68
|£>r+25.37
B> +11,36
+10.01
+9-30
is-10.70
r+11.27
r+14.10
[f>p89,668
65.38
B>58.65
83.41
r-3.60
r-4.20
p+0.96
r+3.72
r+0.60
p+2.52
r+20.90
(NA)
+7.69
+9.58
(NA)
rs-17.10
+8.39
IH-5.35
October
November .
December . .
•mo do
QO
1 82
1 90
07
7.5 O (
i o/, AA
1 72
79
cc
f^O?
IDA QO
9*3 9A.
1 65
81 63
1 66
Ao Oft
195 A.5
1 7A.
1968
104 49
79 60
1 51
88 59
(NA)
80.11
91.41
74.66
75.03
89.99
84.12
1.59
1.57
1.56
B>1.47
1.71
1.51
April
May
June
July
August
September .
October
November
December
NOTE- Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated'by B>- for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45f and 93), current low values are indicated by
•^
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown atffthe back of the book. Series
ded by
are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e , estimated; V, anticipated;
preceded
by an
an asterisk
asterisk (*)
(*) are
and M NA", not available.
1
Series that reached their high values prior to 1967 are as follows: Series 112, high value (+21.11), in July 1966.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
APRIL
1969
75
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
0 MONEY AND CREDIT-Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Bank
Reserves
93. Free
reserves ®
Year
and
month
(Mil. dot.)
114. Treasury 116. Corporate 115. Treasury 117. Municipal 66. Consumer
bill rate©
bond yields® bond yields© bond yields© installment
debt
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
Interest Rates on Business
Loans and Mortgages
Outstanding Debt
Money Market Interest Rates
(Mil. dol.)
*72. Commercial
and industrial
loans outstanding, weekly report ing large commercial banks
(Mil. dol.)
*67. Bank
118. Mortgage
rates on short- yields, resiterm business dential ©
loans, 35
cities©
(Percent)
(Percent)
1
Revised
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
LAGGING INDICATORS
,
July
August
September
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
4 >,f\
-16
_/.
+236
L 76
L *>%
L 5Q
c oc
PO2
c ec
+17*;
+269
4,007
e>r
3 *o?
o A/,
e co
2*57
c on
CT
4 '51
LA
A nA
L ftA
L ^1
4 28
6 06
6
?0
oou
L L%
6
**•* 7P
+272
+9 Oft
+268
3
C
CO
PO.J
*30
3 • cr
?M-
/^A OOA.
60, 93o
Ai
i *ad
ol,ij8
AT
coo
ol,5V^
A
*T-3
O.XJ
7A
A^A
f 0,0,50
7 A A? A
77
1AA
r r^i/t-o
Ao
QJ c
02,345
Ao
ono
0^1, ^UV
Ao
cdA
62,580
5 *73
ryrf i /vg
77j4O3
rjnr fJ/lT
('^OUJ.
Ao
OT7
O^jtJX/'
4QQ
QQ
3 •77
4
7rt
n/
/tJ, JUL4
1
A
A
0.2^ ,91
<cifO
5 • QC
7?
A An
A AQ
7ft
/, SO
fOjifJU
7ft ftOI
7Q
Iftfl
I 7y J-OU
A^ *^Q?
6/L 053
65 102
5 Q6
6 . 77
rf
L J.7
L L%
1.
A
rtL
ftA
I, Q*;
CO
3 O<3 . CC
?5
3 An
Q do
^ .07
oA
3 ,yo
4
no
-\.o
Ao
01 1
o«i,yju.
6 53
% 1Q
*; AA
5 01
6 87
6 93
5 36
L ^0
A. ?A
A. L.?
-n ;, /,
+38
-315
5 08
4 97
5.14
6 57
6 57
6.80
*; irt
5 16
5 39
L. ?Q
L ^1
4 54
7O *^7Q
ftO ^15
80 Q37
65 363
65 734
66 063
A ^A
April
May
June
-413
-326
6 79
7.00
7.02
5 28
5 40
5 23
/L
rti
67 446
67 306
67,702
6 84
-341
5 36
5.62
5.54
July
August
September
-226
-190
-132
5.38
5.10
5.20
6.91
6.54
6.69
5 09
5.04
5.09
6.89
5.33
5.49
5.92
6.88
7.00
7.28
5.24
5.36
5.66
6,61
7.29
7.33
R>7.76
5.74
5.86
B>6.05
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
-16?
-245
r-297
-480
r-596
g>p-741
te> 6.18
^ 6.16
6.08
coft
82 310
83 026
4.21
83 883
84 817
4.38
85 532
68 178
68, 695
69 225
4.49
4.60
86>479
87,313
88,088
70,264
71,536
72,346
88,729
B>89,527
(NA)
73,410
fc>74,698
p74,674
4 33
4.82
4.85
4.98
0> 5.26
6 • CO
53
A A*;
4 59
4 76
1L
6 en
.51
'"
+160
L 54
4 50
00
6 .*7
1i
6 .44
QC
+2?0
+icy?
A Ao
A /A
A
^tc
"O5
7A 1Q1
7 A "3OQ
7 A *W,A
A
ftl
A
ftl
6 7ft
6 83
6, 'Q*.
'7
(NA.)
7f •?*
t;o
7 .i^i
7
Oft
7 ,^K
1 Q
QC
•J?5
700
tir**-*.f'->^
7 ^?
g^>-
»^7
7.36
7 50
fNA'i
7 9Q
(ir^=^ s os
April
May
June
July
August
September .... ....
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93)r current low values are indicated by
|B>.. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill.
76
APRIL 1969
BCD
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing
Qj COMPOSITE INDEXES
810. Twelve
leaders, reverse
trend adjusted1
(series 1, 4, 6.
Year
and
month
10, 12, 16, 17,
19^3,29,31.
(1963=100)
820. Five
830, Six
(aggers (series
coinciders,
44,61,62,67,
estimated aggregate economic activity
(series 41, 43,
47, 52, 56)
(1963=100)
(1963-100)
Leading indicator subgroups
813. Marginal
employment adjustments
(series 1, 4, 5J3
(1963=100)
814. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 6, 10,
12,29)
(1963=100)
815. Inventory
investment and
purchasing
(series 23, 25,
816. Profitabil- 817. Sensitive
financial flows
ity (series
16,
(series 33, 85,
17, 19)2
112, 113)
31, 31?
(1963=100)
(1963-100)
(1963-100)
1967
January
February .
March
124.2
123.1
123.3
HI. 2
140.9
141.5
150.0
149.5
149.7
103.8
100.2
99.1
103.1
103.3
103.4
103.2
101.6
100.7
113.8
113.6
113.8
95.8
97.1
97.9
April
141.4
141.3
142.3
3A9.fi
June
123.6
124.0
126.1
149.6
150.3
98.2
98.1
99.8
104.5
105.5
107.9
99.5
100.2
100.2
114.3
114.4
113.8
95.5
98.4
99.8
July
August
September
126.6
128.7
128.6
143.1
144.5
143.7
150.6
150.4
151.4
98.7
100.6
101.2
107.4
109-3
108.9
99.9
100.3
99.5
114.5
114-7
115.0
100.3
98.7
97.6
October
November
December
129.9
131.4
133-S
143.2
146.8
149.0
152.0
152.9
154.8
100.6
101.0
101.3
109.8
110.1
112.5
100.9
102.0
104.2
115.6
115.6
116. 5
99.7
100.0
99.3
132.1
134.4
134.8
149.9
151.7
152.9
157.2
159.0
159.7
100.3
101.5
101.8
110.4
112.6
113.0
102.0
102.3
102.8
115.4
114.0
114.1
100.5
100.4
100.6
June
135.0
136.0
137.2
153.7
154.9
156.3
rl62.4
rl63.7
rl64.4
100.8
101.9
102.4
111.3
111.1
112.2
102.7
101.8
100.9
116.0
116.5
117.4
102.6
102.8
rl01.7
July
August
September
139-3
139.1
140.7
157 .A
157.9
159.0
r 164.1
104.0
1O1.4
102.5
113.8
U4.9
116.1
100,1
101.6
100.1
117.4
115.8
116.7
104.3
rl01.5
r99-5
October
November
December
044.0
143.6
344.6
160.2
162.1
163.3
rl68.6
102,0
101.0
100.3
118.8
117.6
119.1
102.2
102.0
.102.9
117.9
rl!8.7
119.0
r!03.6
r!04.3
|£>rl04.6
r!44.3
|H>rl46.4
^ p!45.0
r!64.7
rl66.4
g>p!66.9
r!77.7
rlfil.2
g> plfil.S
100.9
rlOO.O
P99.9
119.0
B>rll9.9
L
pll7.7
r!20.0
r!04.2
p!03.8
r!17.6
rl!7.9
pll6.7
rl02.4
plOl.6
(NA)
May
1968
January
February
March
. .
April
May
rl66.7~
rl67,7
170.8
174.3
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
Juiv
August
September
October
November
December
. .
. ..
NOTE- Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®
Current high values are
indicated'by 0>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44t 45f and 93), current low values are indicated by
0£>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; 4 'p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA'V, not available.
1
Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators.
3
Series that reached their high values prior to 196? are as follows: Series 813, high value (107.9) reached in March 1966;
Series 815, high value (110.1) reached in March 1966; Series 816, high value (120.1) reached in February 1966.
ltd) APRIL 1969
77
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES
Year
and
quarter
61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment
a. Actual
expenditures
b. Second
c. First
anticipations as anticipations as
percent of actual percent of actual
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Percent)
410. Manufacturers' sales,
total value
(Percent)
(Bil. dol.)
412. Manufactur- 414. Condition
ers' inventories, of manufacturers'
total book value inventories: percent considered
high less percent
considered low
(Bil. dol.)
(Percent)
416. Adequacy 435. Index of
of mfrs.' capac- consumer
sentiment
ity: percent
considered inadequate less percent considered
(First quarter
excessive
(Percent)
1966=100)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
100.7
101.2
131.2
134.0
135.3
137.5
70.0
72.7
75.5
78.1
11
14
19
26
47
45
46
42
100.0
95.7
91.2
88.3
101.5
100.1
102.6
99.0
102.9
101.2
103.1
99.9
135.0
135.6
137.4
140.7
80.1
81.1
81.7
82.8
30
29
23
22
40
40
41
38
92.2
94.9
96.5
92.9
100.1
1Q3.2
102.7
102.0
100.5
102.7
104.5
345-2
349-5
152.7
156.6
$3.8
85.6
87.1
88.6
22
22
21
35
35
40
95.0
93.4
93.9
92.1
a!58.2
a!59.9
a89.9
a92.3
53.00
60.10
61.25
62.80
99.2
97.8
98.0
100.6
99.7
61.65
61.50
60.90
62.70
64.75
62.60
63.20
65.90
98.6
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
98.9
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
a71.65
a70.85
(NA)
(NA)
95.1
AGGREGATE SERIES--Con.
Year
and
quarter
420. Family income of households compared to a year ago, households reporttnga. No change b. Higher
in income
income
(Percent)
(Percent)
c. Lower
income
(Percent)
425. Mean probability of substantial
changes in family income of households
a. Increase
in income
(Percent)
430. Household purchases of new cars
2-quarter moving average
a. Actual
b. Increase c. Decrease (quarterly)
b. Actual
c. Antici- d. Anticipated
less decrease in income
as percent of
pated
(Ann. rate, actual
(Ann. rate, (Ann. rate,
(Percent)
mil. cars)
mil. cars)
(Percent)
(Percent)
mil. cars)
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
52.4
55.2
53.9
54.2
35.4
32.9
34,2
33.3
11.2
11.0
11.0
11.6
52.3
47.5
48.1
51.2
36.0
40.9
40.3
38.0
11.1
10.9
11.0
10.1
16.0
15.8
17.4
16.2
10.1
9.9
11.2
10.2
5.9
5.9
6.2
6.0
52.9
36.4
10.0
19.3
18.3
18.4
16.7
13.8
12.5
11.9
11.2
5.5
5.8
6.5
5.5
16.5
11.3
5.2
7.3
7.5
6.8
6.8
7.4
7.4
7.1
6.8
7.4
7.9
8.7
7.8
7.1
7.7
3.3
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
7.4
7*6
7.6
9.6
9.2
9.2
1969
First quarter,..
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
7.8
7.6
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
78
APRIL
1969
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Year
and
quarter
D440. New orders, manufacturing1
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
D442, Net profits, manufacturing
and trade
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
{4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
D446. Number of employees,1
manufacturing and trade
D444. Net sales, manufacturing1
and trade
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
88
88
84
82
86
88
88
84
82
82
78
76
84
86
84
82
88
88
85
82
90
90
65
66
63
62
62
63
63
62
71
72
69
72
82
82
80
81
65
65
64
69
75
74
76
76
71
70
72
74
80
82
82
82
58
58
58
58
60
60
60
60
73
78
79
80
80
83
82
81
70
73
72
74
74
80
78
73
79
82
82
84
82
86
86
84
57
60
58
60
60
60
58
60
(NA)
82
85
78
79
(NA)
86
88
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter,..
Fourth quarter..
(NA)
60
60
(NA)
DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade1
Actual
(4-Q span)
Selling prices
D460. Manufacturing
and trade 1
D462. Manufacturing1
D464. Wholesale trade
Anticipated
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
D466. Retail trade1
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter •
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
74
74
73
74
66
68
69
69
74
74
80
78
66
69
74
70
70
72
78
76
65
68
72
68
78
76
82
78
68
72
76
72
78
78
84
80
63
70
76
75
68
66
65
64
65
66
63
62
72
72
76
78
75
72
70
72
70
70
72
73
74
72
68
70
74
74
80
82
76
73
69
74
74
80
84
87
76
76
72
78
68
68
70
70
63
66
67
66
78
80
81
84
76
79
78
78
74
76
78
80
74
76
75
76
81
82
82
85
78
82
78
78
88
88
92
81
84
86
87
(NA)
66
68
(NA)
78
80
(NA)
75
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
79
(NA)
79
80
(NA)
84
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® B Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA*f not available.
1
This is a copyrighted series used tiy permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
ltd)
APRIL 1969
79
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Q DIFFUSION INDEXES -Con.
Year
and
quarter
D61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment-,
ail industries
a. Actual
expenditures
(1-Q span)
1966
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Thfrd quarter*
Fourth quarter
1967
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter ....
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
a. Actual
car load ings
c. First
anticipations
b. Second
anticipations
(1-Q span)
480. Change in
freight carloadings ®
D480. Freightcarloadings@
(1-Q span)
b. Anticipations
(4-Q span)
(Mil. of cars4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
83.3
83.3
55.6
75.0
62.5
71.9
37.5
65.6
56.2
71.9
71.9
75.0
73.7
73.7
57.9
52.6
73.7
89.5
84.2
78.9
+28
+18
+21
+1
55.6
30.6
33.3
61.1
50.0
41.7
44-4
50.0
53.1
52.8
58.3
44.4
42.1
31.6
10.5
42.1
78.9
52.6
78.9
73.7
-51
-08
-130
-88
66.7
38.9
55.6
55.6
63.9
55.6
69.4
83.3
63.9
47.2
80.6
55.6
31.6
68.4
73.7
63.2
73.7
68.4
r-16
+26
+52
-9
(at)
33.3
72.2
50.0
78.9
89.5
r-9
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; V, preliminary;
V, estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
APRIL
1969
ltd)
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Qj FOREIGN TRADE
Year
and
month
1967
January
February
March
500. Merchandise trade
balance (series 50 2 minus
series 512)
502. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
0)
1
506. Manufacturers' new
orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicles and parts
{Mil. dol.)
512. General imports, total
(1957-59=100)
(Mil. dol.)
(M
C )
+361
2,617
+376
+349
2,605
2,548
920
855
904
April . . .
May
June
+427
+410
+350
2,653
2,547
2,57?
i;oos
July
August
September
+376
+L2L
+L3Q
2 585
2 CJ.Q
2 fr*ft
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
+1QA
2 QQ/.
2 A on
+310
-K7£
r+127
r+184
r-150
2 603
r2,8l4
215
961
2,226
2,137
2,227
AA7
219
OQ r\
xijJU
2 208
-1 OC
2 jJ-O
Q2L.
?^T
o
fjoq
ft71
OCf*
AJO
oo ;.
QQO
ncc
1 O(t
2 ,iyts
2 ,^0-ti
2 C O2C
>5 5
907
772
r2 775
r2 439
909
1 OO7
964
1 047
989
r+79
r2,856
r2,742
r2,871
July
August
September
r+134
r+78
r+271
r2,859
r2,949
r3,225
923
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
r-104
r+89
r+54
r2,634
r2,974
r-2,979
1 268
925
1,082
r+75
r-359
r2,093 '
r2,297
3,196
+215
2 256
2,229
2,200
220
218
iM-252
r-13
235
196
252
793
April .
May
June
April
May
June
508. Index of export orders,
nonelectrical machinery
917
914
988
<?**•
^?P
21*;
onrt
Q(>Q
260
252
r2,687
r2,592
r2,589
241
237
223
r2,604
r2,755
v»O
TOO
r/i, /'yxd
246
245
256
*»o ^1
0*7 n
r^i,
2},},
«O
r^, OOA
(4&
~,O or J
r^i, V54
00 p
<.3&
r<;, ^jjtf
-o e>rtA
239
r2 925
r834
pi, 272
r242
p238
(NA)
(NA)
r2,0!8
r2,655
2 Qftl
>»9 OQXJ
,
juiv
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
^•See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
BCII APRIL 1969
81
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Year
and
quarter
250. Balance on goods and
services, excluding military
grants
U.S. balance of payments
522. Official settlements
basis
520. Liquidity balance
basis
(Mil. dol.)
Net capital movements plus unilateral transfers
525. Liquidity
balance
basis1
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
527. Official
settlements
basis2
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1.508
1,309
1,134
1,130
-2,138
»1,402
-1,435
-1,463
-1,917
-1,764
-806
+247
-1,082
1,293
1,269
1,359
848
-1,798
-1,791
-2,161
-2,590
-3,057
-2,075
-1,112
-1,930
r-132
r-571
r+1,509
r+55
rp+990
rp4-256
r298
r622
r854
p!93
r-1,003
r-B04
r-799
1*797
r--869
r+887
r-431
1*63
-630
-93
-301
-333
-409
-116
+692
+99
-442
-1,031
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
-505
-522
-302
-1,742
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
r-705
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
530. Liquid
532. Liquid
534. U.S.
liabilities to 3 and certain
official re- 4
all foreigners nonliquid lia- serve assets
bilities to
foreign offi- 3
cial agencies
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
Goods and services movements, excluding transfers under military grants
Income on investment, military
Goods and services
Merchandise, adjusted 1
transactions, other serv,,total
252. Exports
253. Imports
536. Exports
537. Imports
540. Exports
541. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
6,036
6,263
6,567
6,675
3,340
3,466
3,543
2,984
3,073
3,619
3,254
3,710
1966
First quarter..,
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter,.
29,200
29,225
29,444
29,783
16,060
16,361
15,853
16,044
15,026
14,958
H,876
14,882
10,528
10,645
10,912
11,059
9,020
9,336
9,778
9,929
29,261
30,202
31,379
33,302
16,296
17,420
17,820
19,397
13,855
U,274
14,649
14,830
11,371
11,377
11,513
11,496
10,078
10,108
10,154
10,648
7,661
7,703
7,626
7,478
6,686
6,605
6,541
7,159
3,674
3,887
3,392
3,503
3,633
3,489
r33,103
r33,422
r33,938
P34,024
18,403
16,977
r17,475
p!8,660
13,926
14,063
14,634
p!5,710
rH,850
r!2,607
r!3,282
p!2,463
rll,552
rll,985
7,9U
r8,379
r8,835
rp8,248
r7,879
^8,335
r8,592
p8,467
3,936
r4,228
r4,447
P4,215
r3,673
r3,650
r3,836
7,188
7,179
7,369
7,440
3,211
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
4,018
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; V, preliminary;
V, estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
a
3
4
Series 520 minus series 250.
Series 522 minus series 250.
Amount outstanding at the end of quarter.
Reserve
B
position at the end of quarter.
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of
Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports).
APRIL 1969
ItCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
Income on investment, military transactions and other services (components of series 540 and 541)
Income on investments
Travel
542. U.S. invest- 543. Foreign
ments abroad
investments in
the U.S.
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
Military transactions
546. Sales under 547. Military
545. Payments
544. Receipts
expenditures
from foreign trav- by U.S. travelers military contracts
elers in the U.S. abroad
abroad
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1,478
1,537
1,58?
1,648
476
479
556
563
379
389
411
411
637
674
672
674
1,594
1,556
1,827
1,882
560
575
598
421
384
417
424
704
841
925
725
r659
442
421
r780
r76l
r823
rl,741
rl,948
r2,054
pl,944
(NA)
Transportation and other services
200
219
205
205
548. Receipts
from
(Mil. dol.)
549. Payments
for
(Mil. dot.)
872
923
962
979
1,283
1,321
1,338
1,355
1,021
1,038
245
323
1,098
1,104
1,360
1,398
1,398
1,389
1,056
1,037
1,015
1,062
306
m
r740
p702
r447
P452
P719
r360
r403
P355
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
999
997
1,110
1,123
r1,447
rl,145
pl,183
rl,543
pl,464
1,124
rl,063
rl,128
Pl,199
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1,499
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
Capital movements, including errors and omissions
Direct investments
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
(Mil. dol.)
Securities investments
561. U.S. investments 564. Foreign purchases 565. U.S. purchases
of U.S. securities
of foreign securities
abroad
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil, dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
570. Government
grants and capital
transactions, net
(Mil. dol.)
575. Banking and
other capital transactions, net
(Mil. dol.)
1966
F irst quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter..,
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
+010
695
1,002
872
1,054
+173
+520
+107
+109
+357
+14
+81
+30
-1,122
-1,054
-783
-772
+169
+419
+238
+438
+70
+12
+104
653
651
902
815
+133
+329
+520
+34
+259
+199
+476
+332
-1,190
-995
-911
-1,101
+527
+409
-409
-279
+256
+33
r+28
p+46
374
1,035
rl,l68
pl67
r+748
+1,056
r+1,121
rp+1,248
+385
+33
r+323
p+497
-1,046
r-383
r-752
p-281
r+246
+52
+38
-113
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
r+69
P+494
(HA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
KCII
APRIL 1969
83
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Defense indicators
Receipts and expend tures
Year
and
month
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
70.0
6,518
6,595
6,343
2,296
2,140
1,903
3.01
3.32
3.07
3,364
3,930
3,034
163. ! 5
72!!
6,211
7,732
6,891
1,754
2,480
2,290
3.17
4.04
3.93
3,026
4,040
3,566
152! 2
165 !i
72^9
5,928
7,003
7,479
1,633
1,925
2,958
3.60
2.99
3.36
3,545
3,690
3,720
-32! 2
156 !i
168 ".6
7JU
7,A49
6,565
6,331
2,735
2,173
1,846
3.98
3.64
4.36
3,626
3,308
3,479
-B.6
166! 6
175 !l
76.*8
7,033
7,615
6,208
2,360
2,865
1,985
3.51
3.86
5.07
l!60
1.31
2,887
3,445
3,124
-3.6! 2
17l!d
i8i!9
79^6
6,765
7,441
6,929
2,161
2,299
2,077
4.43
4.01
2.96
1.47
2.27
2.06
3,488
4,203
3,067
-2.8
182.1
• **
W.9
79^6
**•
7,544
7,659
7,989
2,323
2,804
3,234
3.6?
3.91
3.55
1.91
2.36
1.92
3,937
3,173
3,836
-HX2
r!87.6
186'.9
solo
7,520
7,286
6,603
2,298
2,520
1,959
4.41
3.89
4.20
2.98
1.95
2.31
3,903
3,378
3,821
pl89*.5
p8o!3
7,852
7,216
(NA)
2,307
2,207
(NA)
r4.39
P3.42
1.84
P2.31
pi. 68
3,468
3,658
(NA)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
-ii!2
us!i
159 3
April
May
June
-13^3
I4s!a
July
August
September
-32 '.9
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
625. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
and institutions
621. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
601. Federal
receipts, national income
and product
accounts
1967
January
February
March
648. New or647. New orders, defense ders, defense
products indus- products
tries
616. Defense
Department
obligations,
total, excluding
military
assistance
600. Federal
surplus {+) or
deficit (-), national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(NA)
(NA)
264. National
602. Federal
expenditures,
defense pur*
national income chases
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
4.02
(Bit. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
84
APRIL 1969
KCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q| PRICE MOVEMENTS
Year
and
month
Consumer price indexes
781. All items® 782. Food ®
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
Wholesale price indexes
783. Commodi784, Services® 750. All commod- 58. Manufac- 751. Processed
ties less foods®
ities®
tured goods® foods and
feeds®
752. Farm products®
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59^100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59«100)
(1957-59-100)
1967
January ,
February
March
114.7
in.
s
115.0
114.7
114.2
114.2
107.3
107.6
107.8
125.5
125.9
126.3
106.2
106.0
105.7
106.4
106.4
106 3
112.8
H1.7
110.6
102.6
101.0
99.6
April
May
June
115.3
115.6
116.0
113.7
113.9
115.1
108.4
108.7
108,9
126.6
127,0
127,4
105.3
105.8
106.3
106.2
106.3
106.6
110.0
H0.7
112.6
97.6
100.7
102.4
July
August
September
116.5
116.9
117.1
116.0
116.6
115.9
109.1
109.4
110.0
128:2
127.7
128.7
106.5
106.1
106.2
106.8
106.8
107.1
113.1
112.1
112.7
102.8
99.2
98.4
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
117.5
117. 8
118.2
115.7
115.6
116.2
no. 6
111.1
111.1
129.1
129.6
130.1
106.1
106.2
106.8
107.1
107.3
107.6
111.7
110.9
111.5
97.1
96.4
98.9
118.6
119.0
119.5
117.0
117.4
117.9
111.2
111.5
111. 9
130.8
131.3
132.1
107.2
108.0
108.2
108.1
108.7
108.9
112.4
H3.3
112.9
99.0
101.3
102.1
April
May
June
119.9
120.3
120.9
Ufr.3
118.8
119.1
112,2
112.5
113.0
132.5
133.0
133.9
108.3
108.5
108.7
109.1
109.1
109.4
112.8
113.6
114.6
102.1
103.6
102.5
July
August.
September
121.5
121.9
122.2
120.0
120.5
120.4
113.2
113.5
113.9
134.9
135.5
136.0
109.1
108.7
109.1
109.7
109.5
109.9
115.9
114.9
115.3
103.9
101.4
102.8
October...November
December
1969
January
February
March
122.9
123.4
123.7
120.9
120.5
121.2
114.7
115.3
115.2
136.6
137.4
138.1
109.1
109.6
109.8
110.0
110.3
110.5
114.4
114.7
114.7
101.2
103.1
103.3
124.1
124.6
125.6
122.0121.9
115.0
115.7
116. a
139.0
139.7
140.9
110.7
111.1
111.7
111.3
111.7
112.2
116.0
116.3
116.4
104.9
105.0
106.5
pin.9
P112.5
P117.5
p!05.6
April
May
June
122.4
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
ltd*
APRIL 1969
85
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q| ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP
Year
and
quarter
206. Potential level 1
205. Actual value
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, fail, dol.)
1966
First quarter. ......
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter. .....
1967
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter ....
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
207. Gap (potential less actual)
Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars
648.6
653.3
659.5
667.1
637.6
643.9
650.2
656.6
665.7
669.2
675.6
681.8
663.1
669.6
676.2
682.9
-2.6
•K>.4
HO. 6
+1.1
692.7
703.4
712.3
718.4
689.6
696.4
703.3
710.2
-3.1
»7.0
-9,0
-8,2
P723.6
(NA)
(NA)
-11.0
-9.4
-9.3
-10.5
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; V, anticipated; and M NA", not available.
1
Based on a trend line of 3-1/2 percent per year through middle of 1955 from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3-3/4 percent from 4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, and 4 percent thereafter.
APRIL 1969
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q ANALYTICAL RATIOS
Year
and
month
850. Ratio,
output to capacity, manufacturing
851. Ratio,
inventories
to sales, manufacturing
and trade
852. Ratio,
unfit led orders to shipments, manufacturers'
durable goods
853. Ratio,
production of
business
equipment to
consumer
goods
(Percent)
(Ratio)
(Ratio)
(1957-59-100)
1967
January.
February. .,
March
854. Ratio,
personal saving to disposablepersonal
income
(Ratio)
855, Ratio,
nonagricuftural job op enings unfilled
to persons
unemployed
(Ratio)
858. Output
per man-hour,
total private
nonfarm
856. Real
avg. hourly
earnings,
prod, workers,
mfg.
859. Real
spendable avg,
wkly. earnings,
nonagri.prod.
or nonsupv.
workers
(1957-59=100) (1957-59 dol.) (1957-59 dol.)
857. Vacancy
rate in total
rental housing®
(Percent)
87-1
1.57
rl.59
1.59
3.51
3.50
3.46
126.0
127.6
125.6
0.074
0.138
0.133
0.127
127^8
2.41
2.42
2.43
78.23
77.91
77.89
6.6
April
May
June
85*.6
1.59
1.59
1.57
3.53
3.50
3-48
124.3
124.6
123.3
0.068
0.121
0.118
0.117
128.9
2.42
2.42
2.43
77.65
77.79
77.91
6.3
July
August
September
84 .'3
rl.59
rl.57
1.57
3-54
3.40
3.48
123.1
121.7
122.3
0.074
0.117
0.120
0.115
129.' 5
2.43
2.44
2.43
78.18
78.23
78.51
6.1
October
November
December
84.8
1.59
1.57
1.56
3.54
3.44
3.39
119.4
122.2
119.9
0.078
0.109
0.118
0.119
136 !o
2.43
2.44
2.45
78.02
78.42
78.09
5^6
January
February
March
p84*.9
1.55
1.54
1.54
3.37
3.36
3.39
121.2
119.6
118.3
0.071
0.128
0.124
0.129
131." 9
2.47
2.46
2.48
77-77
78.79
78.64
5.' 5
April
May
June
psiis
1.55
1.54
1.52
3.41
3.36
3.28
117.9
118.0
117.5
0.075
0.137
0.140
0.132
132 '.7
2.47
2.48
2.48
78.14
78.81
79.25
5.'?
July
August
September
p84.0
1.52
1.54
1.52
3.17
3.38
3.24
117.3
116.3
117.7
0.063
0.129
0.132
0.132
133 '.5
2.48
2.48
2.50
79.00
79.07
79.74
5*4
October
November
December
p84*.2
1,53
1-53
1.56
3-19
3.22
3.38
117.0
120.1
rl!9.4
0.068
0.134
0.140
0.143
pl34^8
2.50
2.50
2.50
79.10
78.82
78.93
4^9
1.54
pl.53*
3.22
3.18
(NA)
rll9.3
r!19.7
PH9.8
pO.058
0.141
0.043
pO.134
(NA)
2.51
2.50
r79.10
r?9.28
P79.20
(NA)
1968
1969
January
February
March
p84*.i
(NA)
p2.49
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
4l
e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
KCII APRIL1969
87
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators
Year
and
month
Dl. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing (21 industries)
1-month span
9-month span
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (35 industries)
1-month span
9-month span
Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB (17 industries)
1-quarter span
3-quarter span
1967
January
February
March
69.0
7.1
81.0
11.9
9.5
9.5
40.0
54.3
32.9
34.3
34.3
38.6
47
53
April
May
June
40.5
28.6
64.3
16.7
38.1
31.0
48.6
54.3
64.3
65.7
61.4
65.7
53
41
July
August
September
71.4
59.5
76.2
76.2
61.9
40.5
40.0
72.9
42.9
74.3
91.4
70.0
53
59
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
28.6
71.4
45.2
81.0
69.0
14.3
60.0
54.3
74.3
71.4
71.4
68.6
41
41
14.3
90.5
21.4
57.1
64.3
64.3
51.4
55.7
50.0
57.1
71.4
68.6
47
53
April
May
June
11.9
90.5
73.8
33.3
85.7
88.1
40.0
54.3
51.4
68.6
68.6
80,0
71
59
July
August
September
35.7
38.1
88.1
35.7
47.6
76.2
51.4
44.3
78.6
71,4
88,6
82.9
59
P59'
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
40.5
23.8
47.6
r31.0
P35.7
60.0
44*3
55.7
r88.6
p82.9
P41
47.6
r26.2
P83.3
57.1
r62.9
P45.7
(NA)
(NA)
April
May
June
July
August.
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
APRIL 1969
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Qj DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators-Con.
D34. Profits,
manufacturing,
FNCB (about 1,000
corporations)
Year
and
month
1-quarter span
1967
January.
February
March
D19. Index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (77 industries) © *
1-month span
D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
9-month span
1-month span
9-month span
D5. Initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, week
including the 12th (47 areas)
1 -month span
9-month span
48
90.9
92.2
61.0
85-7
90.3
97.4
46.2
53.8
23.1
0.0
15.4
26.9
55.3
17.0
46.8
27.7
8.5
8.5
April
May
June
46
76.0
74.0
51.3
93.4
92.1
86.2
23.1
61.5
69.2
30.8
23.1
23.1
55.3
54.3
55.3
31.9
44.7
29.8
July
August
52
51.6
77.6
57.2
68.4
65.8
71.1
30.8
53.8
19.2
23.1
30.8
46.2
34.0
72.3
60.6
78.7
78.7
66.0
59
32.2
7.9
71.1
52.6
46.1
50.0
46.2
46.2
61.5
38.5
30.8
30.8
38.3
74.5
46.8
80.9
70.2
78.7
55
64.5
10.5
21.1
61.8
63.2
71.1
46.2
46.2
53.8
30.8
46.2
46.2
25.5
80.9
25.5
57.4
51.1
61.7
April
May
June
45
94.7
83.6
80.3
76.3
82.7
85.3
46.2
53.8
50.0
53.8
61.5
73.1
63.8
51.1
53.2
38.3
51.1
74.5
July
August
September
56
48.7
17.8
86.7
93.3
97.3
81.3
46.2
65.4
57.7
76.9
57.7
76.9
57.4
40.4
63.8
36.2
66.0
76.6
October
November
December
58
82.7
77.3
72.7
71.3
52.0
69.2
69,2
38.5
92.3
92.3
84.6
66,0
31.9
61.7
63.8
78.7
September
October
November
December . ...
1%8
January
February
March
3
1969
(NA)
January
February
March
53.8
61.5
46.2
12.0
43.3
13.3
3
April
May
June
72.3
38.3
55.3
65.4
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on
the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; V, preliminary; and
*NA", not avail-able. Unadjusted series are indicated by®.
1
Based on 77 components through June 1967; on 76 components, July 1967 through August 1968; and on 75 components thereafter.
3
Average for April 1, 8, and 15.
lt€l» APRIL
1969
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q DIFFUSION INDEXES: Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year
D41. Number of employees on
nonagricultural payrolls
(30 industries)
and
month
D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)
D58. Index of wholesale prices
(22 manufacturing industries)©
D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)
9-month span
6-month span
1-month span
6-month span
1-month span
29.2
20.8
43.8
45.8
29.2
27.1
77.3
72.7
56.8
63.6
68.2
65.9
87.0
39.1
43.5
69.6
91-3
95.7
35.0
43.3
36.7
52.1
16.7
50.0
29.2
41.7
41.7
47.7
54.5
47.7
63.6
63.6
63.6
60.9
34.8
82.6
87.0
91.3
56.5
46.7
60.0
46.7
48.3
68.3
78.3
47.9
75.0
A1.7
54.2
66.7
75.0
63.6
63.6
75.0
72.7
81.8
81.8
43.5
60.9
76.1
82.6
78.3
82.6
78.3
88.3
86.7
73.3
83.3
88.3
56.2
87.5
83.3
75.0
77.1
83.3
72.7
77.3
90.9
81.8
90.9
95.5
37.0
67.4
47.8
95.7
95.7
73.9
January
February
March
63.3
71.7
58.3
91.7
80.0
80.0
37.5
70.8
75.0
77.1
83.3
75.0
90.9
84.1
68.2
90.9
95.5
90.9
73.9
65.2
82.6
82.6
91.3
91.3
April
83.3
75.0
75.0
41.7
70.8
79.2
83.3
70.8
79.2
72.7
63.6
61.4
75,0
84.1
81.8
26.1
June
56.7
70.0
75.0
8?.0
91.3
87.0
July
August
September
60.0
75.0
43.3
73-3
80.0
78.3
58.3
64.6
66.7
75.0
75.0
70.8
68.2
70.5
72.7
84.1
81.8
86.4
58.7
34.8
78.3
r47.8
r78.3
October....
November
December
76.7
73.3
85.0
rSl.7
86.7
P83.3
68.8
75.0
r70.8
r68.8
P70.8
79.5
79.5
61.4
81.8
81.8
90.9
52.2
54-3
r21.7
82.6
p82.6
1-month span
6-month span
January
February
March
75.0
41.7
3,6.7
48.3
43.3
41.7
April
June
38.3
40.0
60.0
July
August
September
October
November
December
1-month span
1967
May
1968
May
r64.6
60.9
65.2
63.0
1969
January
February
March
April
rSO.O
r70.0
P66.7
r58.3
r41.7
P87.5
68.2
72.7
75.0
r?3.9
69.6
P65.2
„
May
June. , , . .
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on the
4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires no adjustment Table E4
identifies the components for the indexes shown., The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©.
90
APRIL 1969
BCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change
1969
1968
Diffusion index components
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
MarchP
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING x
(Average weekly hours)
All manufacturing industries ...............
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products.
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment.
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
40.7
(38)
41.0
40.8
(40)
(24)
40.7
(48)
o 42.0
41.5
40.8
40.4
o 40.8
40.4
o 42.2 - 41.7
4- 41.4 o 41.4
442.2 + 42.3
- 41.3
4- 41.2
o 40.4
4- 42.0
4- 41.5
41.6
+ 41.1
(88)
40.6
(48)
+ 41.6
o 40.7
40.6
o 41.9
40.2
o 41.7
+ 42.0
+ 41.1
+ 40.8
+ 42.2
+ 41.3
+ 42.1
41.9
+ 40.5
41.9
o 40.5
o 39.2
+ 42.4 - 42.3 o 42.3 o 42.3 440.2 440.5 4- 40.6
+ 40.9
41.6 + 42.6 o 42.6 - 42.5
+ 40.6 o 40.6 o 40.6 o 40.6 438.8 +
39*3
39.5 + 39.7
40.8
40.9
+ 41.1
38.5 - 37.6
4- 38.9
41.1
41.1 + 41.6
36.0 4- 36.5
36.4
43*2 - 43.1
42.9 +
+ 38.4 o 38.4 + 38.6
41,9
o 41.7 + 42.0
42.1 + 42.5 4 42.6
41.4 + 41.6 + 41.7
37.8 + 38.4 4- 38.7
- r40.1 4-
- r40.1
r40.0
4r40.7
r41.9
4- 41.7
+ 41.9
(26)
40.6
(83)
+ r40.4 - 40.0
+ r40.9 - 40.8
P40.1 + 40.4
4- 42.1 + 42.2
r41,6 4- 42,1
- r41.1 4- 41.7
r42.4
r40.4 r41.4 r40.7 r39-l
+
42.4
r39*.6 4- 40,3
r41.2 o 41.2
r39.8 + 40.4
4-
38.5
40.6
o 37.6
41.0
35.9
42.9
4- 40.9
40.7 o 40.7 436,3 + r36.9 + r38.3 r40,l 440.8 4- 41.4
4- 36.2 o 36.2 r35.3 +
r42.4 +
+ 43.3 o r43.3 -
40.9
36.2
40.7
35.7
43.3
- 38.4
o 41.9
o 42.6
- 41.5
- 37.9
o 38.4
4- 42.0 42.4
- 41.3 4- 37.6 -
38.2
rU.9
41,8
r41.4
r37.4
4-
37.9
r41,7
r42.6
r40.6
r35-6
+ 38.5
4- 42,1
+ 42.8
+ 40,8
+ 37.2
(63)
- 29,233
(46)
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(Millions of dollars)
i
All durable goods industries
Primary metals
Blast furnaces steel milts.
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
4- 27,329 4 28,381 4 30,280 - 29,325 4 29,380 4 29,684
(56)
(60)
(57)
(44)
(79)
(44)
-
3,491
1,400 +
4,092
1,682 +
4,397
1,990 4
4,345
4,475
2,120 - 1,941 +
2,917
3,103
3,271
3,225
4,766
5,184
4,675
2,124 -
r4,666
4,687
2,071 4 (NA)
Other primary metals. . .
Fabricated metal products
3,195
4-
3,755
2,841
5,350
5,626
(NA)
...
Hardware, structural metal and wire products
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Steam engines and turbines*.
Internal combustion engines*
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling*.
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment*
Machine shops.
Special industry machinery*
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery*
*
o
661 +
257 4-
414 +
748
330
647
5,210
5,134
5,403
4
699 4299 4-
413
+
714
321
482 *
494
(NA)
+
(NA)
697
312 +
696 4340
860
339
-
(NA)
(NA)
485
472 -f
511 -
(NA)
0
+
T
453 +
508
466
o
466
+
...
4-
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) - falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r revised. *Denotes machinery
and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
•'•Data are seasonally adjusted Ipy source agency.
APRIL 1969
91
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1968
1969
Diffusion index components
August
September
October
November
January
December
March
February
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1 -Continued
(Millions of dollars)
Electrical machinery
Electrical transmission distr. equipment*
Electrical industrial apparatus*
3,668
3,501
«...
;
809 +
730
+
Radio a n d T V
Communication equipment t
Electronic components.
.
.
+
.
+
Motor vehicles and parts total
Complete aircraftt
Aircraft partst • *
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment
+
1,085 +
+
+
1,093 +
7,479
6,996
+
+
+
+
Instruments total
Lumber total
Furniture total
Stone clay and glass total
Other durable goods, total
3,656
3,505
641
3,751
567 ~
1,219
+
+
+
910 +
+
+
°
1,049 +
+
+
+
+
+
3
7,578
7,589
7,764
71
3,581
627 t
3,767
^
+
+
1,020 +
1,036 I
+
+
r7,B42
7,487
+
-f
-H
+
+
+
0
p6,735
...
4-
+
+
+
(NA)
...
+
...
+
+
f
+
+
(NA)
; (NA)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
102.04 -
101.46 -
+
D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS2
(1941-43 - 10)
-
Index of 500 stock prices
Coal bituminous
Food composite
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Text! le products
Paper
Publishing .
_
—
+
Chemicals
. . .
Drugs
Oil composite
Building materials composite
Steel
Metal fabricating
+
+
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
Electronics
Automobiles
.* . .
Radio and television broadcasters
Telephone companies
Electric companies
Natural gas distributors
Retail stores composite
Life insurance
,
9S.11 + 101.34 + 103.76 + 105-40 + 106.48 (73)
(77)
(83)
(18)
(87)
o
+
... +
+
+
+
(43)
U2)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
... +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
+
+
+
+
+
+
... -
+
_,
... „_,
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
... +
+
+
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
... +
+
+
-
(13)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
99.30
+
!'.!
+
...
+
!.!
-
+
...
+
+
0
H+
...
+
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) ~ falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers areheld confidential by the source agency, NA = not available, p = preliminary, r - revised. *Denotes machinery
and equipment industries that comprise series 24. t These industries plus ordnance comprise series 647.
*Data are
Data are
representing
3
Baaed on
a
seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
not seasonally adjusted. The components showi here include 18 of the more important Industries and 5 composites
an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table E3.
76 components through August 1968, and on 75 components thereafter.
92
APRIL 1969
KCH
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1968
1969
Diffusion index components
August
September
October
November
December
February
January
March
April
D23, INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 2
Industrial materials price
index (1957- 59=100)
+
94. 8 +
96.1 +
97.5 +
100.3 +
100.7 +
103.4 1-
106.3 + 106.9 4- 108.9
(Dollars)
(65)
Percent rising of 13 components
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.)
Steel scrap (ton)
Tinflb.)
Zinc(lb.)
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (Ib.), 12-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops (Ib.)
Hides (Ib.).
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib.)
Tallow (Ib.)
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
.393
.052
20.548
1.415
.141
.145
.310
.202
1.576
.144
10.971
.212
.046
(69)
(58)
+
.414
.052
.+ 22.307
4- 1.452
.141
.143
+
.312
+
.202
+ 1.597
+
.160
o 10.971
.211
.044
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
.410
.054
22.460
1.500
.140
.149
.302
.203
1.631
.168
10.943
.220
.045
(38)
(69)
4+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
.404
.055
24.288
1.621
.240
.163
.278
.205
1.636
.175
10.916'
.226
.049
+
+
+
+
+
.480
.059
24,575
1.632
.143
.156
.260
.210
1.607
.171
11.838
.225
.043
(46)
(62)
(54)
.446 +
.054 +
22.505 +
1.643
.139 +
.159
.265
.208 +
1.626 .177
11.385 +
.226
.046 +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
.448
.066
27.256
1.668
.144
.163
.256
.212
1.576
.164
11.803
-247
.049
4o
o
.480
.066
25.407
1.584
.144
.154
.255
+
.213
- 1.575
.163
+* 11.891
+
.260
4.056
(65)
4.521
+ .070
+ 25.536
- 1.562
+
.145
.146
.254
+
.214
- 1.572
+
.139
o H.893
+ .265
4- .059
D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS3
(Thousands)
Avg. weekly initial ciaims ...
199 +
Percent rising of 47 components
Northeast region:
Boston (7)
Buffalo (20)
Newark (12).
New York (1)
Paterson (22)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (25)
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (21)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26).
Detroit (5)
Indianapolis (23)
Kansas City (19).
Milwaukee (18)
Minneapolis (13)
St. Louis (8)..
South region:
Atlanta (17)
Baltimore (11)
Dallas (15)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
Portland (24)
San Francisco (6)
Seattle (16)
(40)
_
194 +
+
+
44-
+
4+
+
4-
44-
+
+
+
+
4+
4-
4... 4+
+
+
... 4+
4-
+
+
4+
+
4-
...
4-
...
+
+
+
...
+
(38)
+
+
4-
4-
+
+
+
4-
!!!
+
...
+
...
4+
+
+
4+
4-
+
+
...
44-
+
4...
+
44-
+
+
...
+
...
184
(55)
+
+
+
+
444-
+
...
H-
44-
...
186 4-
179
(72)
+
+
4+
190 +
(62)
(32)
... +
+
4+
44+
(66)
(64)
44+
+
44-
190 o
183
444-
...
...
+
+
...
+
4-
44-
-
+
4+
+
+
...
+
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown atong with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) - = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Average for April 1, 8, and 15.
^Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
The industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted. Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded.
3
The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises:
(-) - rising, (o) = unchanged, and (+) = falling.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before
the direction of change is determined.
Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month.
Directions of change are
shown separately for only the 26 largest labor market areas. The number following the area designation indicates its size rank.
BUI APRIL 1969
93
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969
1968
Diffusion index components
August
September
October
November
Januaryr
December
March P
February
041. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS1
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagrl cultural payrolls
+
Percent rising of 30 components ,..„»,.,..
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
,
>
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment.
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products.
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products.
Leather and leather products
Mining , ,
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government.
State and local government
68,314 + 68,382 + 68,701 +
(75)
(43)
(77)
o
200
198
+
518
517 +
4393 o
393 4+
518
515 +
- 1,023 - 1,012 - 1,066 + 1,073 +
1,332 +
+ 1,331 +
+
1,3X3 o 1,313 - 1,415 + 1,439 4+
278
277 +
341 +
o
344
186
520
396
520
1,009
1,092
1,337
1,302
1,446
280
344
41,18?
+
77
+
878
- 1,245
+
545
+
666
+
614
118
+
438
+
307
o
638
4- 3,195
44,358
+ 3,683
+ 10,498
4- 3,376
+ 10,548
- 2,751
+ 9,519
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
1,191
71
873
1,259
546
667
617
119
441
308
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
591
3,285
4,374
3,708
10,590
3,411
10,610
2,705
9,620
+
o
o
o
4+
+
4+
+
o
-
1,183
74
875
1,254
541
663
614
118
438
306
639
3,252
4,365
3,695
10,527
3,387
10,545
2,716
9,501
+
68,955 +
(73)
69,310 + 69,620 + r69,955 + 70,102
(80)
(70)
(85)
(67)
+
199
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
521
400
525
1,020
1,093
1,357
1,311
1,423
280
346
198 +
200
r!98 +
199
540
+
533 +
r537 o
537
+
405 +
4H
r4\l o
407 +
4534 +
536
r539
535 +
4- 1,038 + 1,042 4- rl,049 + 1,059
+ 1,102 + 1,111 + rl,U8 + 1,122
- 1,341 4- 1,360 + rl,369 + 1,372
+ 1,322 + 1,333 + rl,344 + 1,351
+ 1,427 + 1,439 - rl,420 + 1,433
+
282 +
283 o
283 +
284
348 +
4353 +
352
354
-
1,188
69
877
1,252
550
669
620
H9
440
309
637
3,279
4,392
3,722
10,604
3,426
10,702
2,696
9,626
4- 1,205
+
71
4880
+ 1,255
4554
+
6?1
4623
o
119
+
444
306
+
638
+ 3,387
+
4,400
+ 3,725
- 10,546
4- 3,442
+ 10,755
H- 2,715
H9,728
+
+
+
+
o
44+
+
+
+
+
+
- 1,203 +
+
73
o
880
+ 1,258 +
556 +
+
673 o
621 +
73 +
4445 +
o
306
4644 43,380 +
4,390 44- 3,746 -H
4- 10,696 443,462 44- 10,792 +
+ 2,760 +
+ 9,745 +
rl,212
r71
r879
1,248
559
r673
r626
rlOl
r451
r302
r646
r3,491
r4,418
r3,768
rlO,705
r3,474
rlO,849
r2,764
r9,786
- 1,203
o
71
876
+ 1,252
o
559
671
625
+
HI
+
453
301
+
647
3,428
+ 4,448
+ 3,786
+ 10,717
+
3,483
+ 10,871
2,759
+ 9,845
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(1957-59=100)
All industrial production
-
Percent rising of 24 components 2
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical .
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay, glass, and lumber
Clay, glass, and stone products
Lumber and products
' Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
164.6 +
(65)
165-1 + 166.0 + 167.5 + 168.7 + 169.2 + 169.5 + 170.5
(58)
(67)
(88)
(69)
(75)
(42)
(65)
122*.8 12o!o + 123 ll +
129 ".3 + r!35l4 + 138!6 4- rl4l!l +
+ 166.3 4- 167.6 •f 172.2 4- 173.5 + r!75.6 + 176.3 + r!76.9 +
..
179 !l
+ 190.1
1B1.7
+ 182.6
+
+
+
+
182J6 + 183. *7
+ 191.4 - 189.3
- 180.5 - 180.4
+ 184.3 + 185.8
147^5 +
U4.7 +
4184^4 + 185 1 3 4+ 191.4 + r!93.0 4- 180.2 - r!76.4 + 188.5 + 189.7 4-
15o!6 + isiie 119.4 o 119.4 +
4171.4 +
191.6 Itf?!?
196.4
rlB8.2
r!95.5
r!72.5
r!90.4
145
179
+
4+
+
189
198
173
191
142
152
(NA)
150.*4 + 151^2 + 153^7 + r!55*.3
126.1 + r!32.3 - 124.3 » P121.3
178!6 + 179.7 + 180.4 +
181*7 + 182!9 +
161.4 + 162.0 + 162.1 + 162.5 4- 165.3 4-
186*.8 166.2 -
r!85.*6
rl64.7 +
185
165
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) - unchanged, and (•) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p - preliminary, r -- revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions
of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for the current month are rounded.
94
BCII
APRIL 1969
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1968
1969
Diffusion index components
August
October
September
November
January
December
February
March
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION^Continued
(1957-59=100)
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leathet and products
- r!42.0
+ 151.4 + 152.0 + 153.3 + 155.1 - r!53.5 - rl51.8 - p!51.0
(NA)
• - 149.0 + 149.9 + 152.1 + 152.5 - r!49.2 - p!48.8
(NA)
+ 109.5 - 109.3 + H3.0 - 111.7 - 109.2 - p!07.8
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
o
+
164'.! +
I6o'.l +
151.1 - 150.0 +
Chemicals petroleum and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
22l! 6 +
+ 140.7 +
+ 223.1 +
Foods, beverages, and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products
+
-
166*7
151.2
+
170! i -
+ 152.3
rl69*9 + rl74.*6
o 152.3 4- rl52.4
p!42
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+
- p!74*4
+ 153.0 +
Pl63
(NA)
pl53
227*8
222.4 +
141.9 + 142.2
+
225.8
223.4
+ r215.8 +
+ 228!? + r231*8 + r233*6 - P232.7
r!41.2
- 141.4
- 1031.5 + p!40.7
(NA)
+ 227.5 + r234.6 - P229.1
P217
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+
135*4 +
1353
137 '.3
123.1 + 124.0 - 120.8
•+ r!38.7 +
- 136*1 + 138*8 + r!39*8 + PU0.3
113.6
(NA)
+ P119.5
- 119.9
P139
(NA)
(NA)
pl!4
p!26
p!50
(NA)
(NA)
Minerals:
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal , stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
- 121.3
+ 129.3
- 120.8
- 126.8
- 125.5
+ 115.9 + 118.3 - 115.3 - 112.4 +
+ 126.3 - r!25.4 - r!24.8 - r!22.4 +
+
134! 5
+ 137.5
127.*7
- 136.5
125!!
- 132.2
+ 135*1 + 137*6 + r!40.2 + pl42*.8
+ 135.5 + 147.0 - 143.5 + P149.7
86.6
+
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES2
(1957-59=100)
All manufacturing industries
- 109.5
+ 109.9
(70)
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
. .,
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel . ...
Nonferrous metals
Miscellaneous metal products.
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products
+
+
+
o
120.5
104.2
108.7
104.8
(73)
+
+
o
+
+
110.0
(SO)
122.6 + 124.9
104.4 + 104.5
108.7 + 108.9
106.7 o 106.7
- 121.7
+ 107.9
+ 115.8
+ 117.6
- 121.5 + 121.9
+ 108.4 4- 108.8
+ 116.7 + 117.5
+ 117.9 + 118.2
+ 114.6
+ 102.9
+ 104.4
+
111.6
+
+
114=5
103.1
104.1
111.9
+ 115.0
+ 103.2
+ 106.5
+ 112.0
+ 110.3 + 110.5 +
(80)
(61)
+ 126.8
+
+ 104.7 +
-1- 109.2 +
- 106.0 +
+ 122.4 +
o 108.8 +
+ 117.7 +
+ 118.3 o
+ 115.2 +
+ 103.6 + 106.6 o
+ -112.5 o
133.5
105.0
109.3
106.1
111.3
(68)
+ 137.8
+ 105.3
+ 110.6
+ 107.5
123-5 + 127.2
109.0 + 109.3
118.3 + 119.6
118.3 + 118.5
115.6 + 115.7
103.5 o 103.5
106.6 - 106.5
112.5 o 112.5
+ 111.7 +
(73)
112.2
(75)
+ 144.5+ 149.5
+ 105.4
+ 105.7
+ 111.2 +
111.9
+ 108.0 + 108.8
+ 128.9
f
129.9
+ 109.4 4- 109.6
+ 120.4 o 120.4
+ 119.1 + 119.8
+ 116.1 + 116.5
o 103.5 + 104.2
106.3
- 106.4
o 112.5 o 112.5
116. A.
+ 114.7 o 114.7 + 116.0 + 116.3 +
104.6
+ 105.4 - 105.1 - 104.8 o 104.8
- 104.6 o 104.6 + 104.7 - 104.4
104.2
92.8
+ 93.0
92.1
92.9
92.3
+ 111.8 + 111.9 •H 112.7 o 112.7 + 112.8
o 104.9 + 105.1 + 105.2 o 105.2 o 105.2 + 106.2 + 106.8 + 107.4
97.8
98.1
- 97.6
98.0
+ 97.8 +
97.9
97.7
o
97.6
99.0
- 101.0 - 100.9
99.2
98.9
99.3
+ 99.5 + 101.7
- 100.6 + 100.7 + 101.0 + 101.1 o
100.0. + 100.5 + 100.9
101.1 o 119.5 + 120.7 + 122.3 + 122.4 + 122.8 + 123.5 - 123.4 o 123.4
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
- 114.9
+ 105.3
+ 104.1
+ 90.7
+ 110.9
+ 115.3 - 114.4
+ 105.4 - 105.3
o 104.1 + 104.7
+ 92.7
+ 92.5
+
111.0 + 111.7
x
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
2
BCD
APRIL 1969
95
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969
1968
Diffusion index components
September
August
October
November
January1*
December
February
MarchP
D54, SALES OF RET AIL STORES 1
(Millions of dollars)
All retail sales .........*.......
+ 26,760 + 28,902 - 28,697 + 28,806 - 28,347 + 28,989 + r29,359 + 29,585
(59)
Grocery stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail-order houses {department store merchandise) . .
Var iety stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Shoe stores
(35)
(52)
+ 5,774 5,735 - 5,731 +
2,146 + 2,139 + 2,149 2,828 2,743 + 2,810 +
282 +
271 +
+
277
*
+
+
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance, TV, radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
+
+
Passenger car and other automotive dealers. ......
Tire, battery, accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
+
+
+
+
(54)
5,817 2,128 2,925 293
(22)
(74)
(70)
(65)
5,744 + 5,909 + P5,972 + (NA)
2,062 + 2,094 + p2,126 + (NA)
(NA)
2,877 - 2,861 + p2,880
273 +
275
p294 + (MA)
520
372
651
286
492 +
369 +
642
275 +
520 +
375 +
639 +
277
522
387
642
272
505 +
371 +
589 +
263.
535
406
622
249
856 +
475
919 +
271
859
443
926 +
270 +
846 +
439
933
271 +
853
428 +
9H +
280
852 +
429 +
937 +
267
876 +
p932 + (NA)
p437
446
(NA)
958 + pi, 058 - (NA)
261 +
(NA)
p2?7
5,173 + 5,516 - 5,171 385
388
383 +
2,063 - 2,049 o 2,050
967
971
973
602
591 +
593 +
5,124 -
*944 +
601
5,082
363
2,052
969
565
+
+
+
+
(MA)
P536
p427 + (NA)
(NA)
p654
P253 - (NA)
+ 5,157 - P5,154 + (NA)
p446 t (NA)
+
417 +
•f 2,097 + P2;ilO + (NA)
P970 + (NA)
+
979
p6l5 + (NA)
+
634 -
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: {+) = rising, (o) *= unchanged, and (-) « falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p « preliminary, r - revised.
^•Data
are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
§
The diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately „ In March 1969 a new seasonal adjustment
of the retail trade data was completed and the basic data and directions of change in this table reflect that seasonal adjustment. However, through November 1968 the diffusion indexes are based on data from the previous seasonal adjustment.
96
APRIL 1969
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Qj CONSUMER PRICES
133. Canada,
781. United
index of consumer
States, index of
consumer prices® prices©
Year
and
month
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
132. United King- 135. West Germany, 136. France,
index of consumer index of consumer
dom, index of
consumer prices® prices @
prices©
138. Japan, index
of consumer
137. Italy, index
of consumer
prices ®
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
1967
January
February
March
115
115
115
11?
117
118
°129
129
129
123
123
123
141
141
1*2
153
154
154
137
138
138
April
May .
June
115
116
116
119
119
120
130
130
130
124
124
124
142
142
142
154
153
152
138
138
139
July
August
September
116
117
117
121
121
121
130
130
129
124
123
123
142
143
U3
152
153
156
139
139
140
.. .
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
118
118
118
121
121
122
129
131
131
123
123
123
144
U5
145
159
159
160
140
140
140
119
119
120
123
123
123
132
133
133
125
125
125
147
147
147
161
161
162
140
140
140
April .
May
June
120
120
121
124
124
124
136
136
136
125
125
126
147
148
148
162
163
161
141
141
141
July
August
September
122
122
122
125
125
126
136
137
137
126
125
125
149
149
150
162
162
168
140
140
141
October
November
December
1969
January
123
123
124
126
127
127
137
138
140
126
126
127
152
152
153
166
167
166
141
141
141
124
025
126
127
140
1A1
(NA)
128
128
128
155
155
167
167
169
142
142
(NA)
February
March
327
128
(NA)
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
. ..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
ItCII APRIL
1969
97
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Q INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
47. United
States, index of
industrial production
123. Canada,
index of industrial production
122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
126. France,
index of industrial production
125. West Germany, index of
industrial production
128. Japan, index of industrial
production
121.0ECD, 1
European countries, index of
industrial production
127. Italy, index
of industrial production
(1957-59*400)
(1957-59*100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59-100)
1967
January
February
March. ,
158
157
157
166
166.
166
129
129
129
156
154
156
150
149
150
298
295
304
153
153
154
207
2U
209
April
May ......... .
June
157
156
156
168
167
168
130
128
129
153
152
156
H9
150
148
305
312
317
154
153
154
212
212
211
July
August
September
156
158
157
169
170
170
129
129
128
156
156
159
154
152
155
321
327
336
155
154
156
211
198
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
157
160
162
169
173
174
129
131
134
159
160
161
156
158
171
338
346
349
157
159
164
215
217
216
161
162
163
172
172
173
133
134
135
162
164
167
157
159
165
347
354
351
160
161
164
218
220
222
April
May
June
162
164
166
175
176
179
133
135
136
n6
167
133
164
167
180
362
372
373
164
154
163
222
224
221
July
August
September
166
165
165
178
178
180
r!37
138
136
rl?l
r!71
r!70
166
182
176
382
381
389
rl67
171
171
223
October . , .•
November
December
1969
January
February
March
166
168
169
182
184
185
137
039
040
177
180
181
175
186
r!88
397
407
401
173
r!77
178
234
225
232
169
170
p!70
p!84
(NA)
P137
(NA)
181
pl80
(NA)
184
p!90
(NA)
401
P402
(NA)
p!76
(NA)
P236
Year
and
month
2n
217
234
(NA)
April
May
June
July
August.
September
October
November
December
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; *p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•^Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
APRIL 1969
ItCII
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Q STOCK PRICES
19. United States, 143. Canada, index 142. United Kingindex of stock
of stock prices© dom, index of
prices, 500 common
stock prices©
stocks ©
Year
and
month
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
146. France, index 145. West Germany, 148. Japan, index
of stock prices© index of stock
of stock prices1©
prices©
(1957-99-100)
(1957-39=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
147. Italy, index
of stock prices©
(1957-99=100)
1967
January ,
February
March
171
177
181
175
180
182
157
156
159
99
103
98
148
156
159
229
228
142
141
12?
April
May
June
184
188
1*5
185
186
186
167
171
172
96
99
98
158
155
154
223
231
231
129
132
130
July
August
September
189
192
194
189
194
198
176
177
187
94
99
no
156
175
182
231
215
209
139
133
139
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
194
188
193
192
188
189
196
203
200
109
106
103
182
192
194
213
206
198
143
139
135
193
184
181
189
177
171
202
208
213
107
104
113
205
209
207
203
208
209
134
130
133
April
May
June
194
198
204
183
185
187
235
246
252
117
111
107
216
219
226
220
229
235
136
135
133
July
August
September
203
199
205
194
192
198
265
272
279
103
105
105
230
231
224
243
254
276
136
138
136
October
November
December
1969
January
210
214
216
2Q3
204
210
270
273
279
104
105
109
228
224
219
275
264
266
131
127
134
20?
206
201
214
213
208
291
282
270
113
121
rp!27
228
230
p229
279
282
279
135
133
rpi37
p204
P2I4
p268
p!30
P231
p291
P153
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
223
....
.. .
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; V, preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA\ not available.
ItCII APRIL 1969
99
APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability
Part 1. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes
Period
covered
Monthly series
Cl
c
1
MCD
i/C
Average duration of run
(ADR)
I/C
for
MCD
span
Cl
1
C
MCD
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 . .
Jan. f'53-Dec. '68..
5. Avg. initial claims, State unemploy. insurance .... Jan. 53-Jan. '69..
Jan.'53-June'68..
*6 New orders durable goods industries
Jan. '59-Sep. '67 . .
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
*1. Average workweek of production workers, mfg
8.
9.
*10
*12.
13.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Construction contracts, total value
Construction contracts, commercial and indus
Contracts and orders plant and equipment
Index of net business formation
New business incorporations
0.46
1.85
4.76
3.48
7.24
'53-Sep. '67 . .
'53-Sep. '67 . .
'53-June '68..
'53-Sep. '67..
'53-Sep. '67-.
6.42
8.47
4.55
.81
2.54
(
21.95
.61
2.46
1.32
4.01
14
*17.
*19.
*23.
24.
Jan. '53-Jan. 69..
Liabilities of business failures (§)
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
Jan. '53-Sep. '68..
Stock prices, 500 common stocks ©
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Industrial materials prices®.
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
New .orders, machinery and equipment industries. . . Jan. '53-June '68..
*29.
*41
42.
46,
*47.
New building permits, private housing
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Help-wanted advertising
Industrial production
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
3.90
'53-Sep. '67..
.31
'53-May '68 . .
.34
'53-Jan. '69..
2.96
'53-Sep. 'fi7..
.95
'53-Sep. '68..
48.
49.
*52.
53.
*54.
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
Personal income
Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., construction
Sales of retail stores
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-Sep. '67..
'53-Jan. '69..
'53-Dec. '67..
'53-Dec. '67..
'53-Sep. '67..
.43
2.93
.54
.83
.89
55.
*56.
58.
*62.
65.
Wholesale prices, industrial commodities (u)
Manufacturing and trade sales
Wholesale prices, manufactured goods ©
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Book value, mfrs.' inventories of finished goods. . .
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-Sep. '67..
'53-Sep. '68..
'53-Sep. '68..
'53-Sep. '68..
'53-June '68..
66. Consumer installment debt
69. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories. .
*72 Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
96 Unfilled orders durable goods industries
810.
8L3.
814
81.5.
816.
12 leading indicators, reverse trend adjusted
Marginal employment adjustments
Capital investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing
Profitability
820 5 coincident indicators
830- 6 lagging indicators
.•
0.40
1.44
0.19
.96
2.20
2.12
1.75
1.83
1.63
9.78
1.49
10.05
1.59
12.00
1.47
9.74
1.53
1.51 8.67
4.05
3.80
4.13
3.89
2.76
1.57
1.52
1.80
2.89
1.85
1.45
1.47
1.53
1.57
1.56
9.26
13.54
10.28
7.33
8.38
3.44
3.00
3.25
4.61
3.16
C1)
.87
.56
.92
.86
1.50
2.51
2.44
2.55
1.93
1.45
1.68
1.60
2.15
1.57
9.14
6.06
9.78
11.73
13.21
2.46
4.13
4.38
3.80
3.16
3
1
2
1
1
.66
.52
.64
.80
.72
1.93
4.72
2.26
2.98
3.30
1.56
1.51
1.54
1.48
1.62
12.57
20.44
16.00
7.65
11.75
3.28
4.72
3.90
2.98
3.30
2
1
1
1
2
.52
.75
.53
.79
.93
2.75
3.43
5.42
2.84
2.15
1.54
1.73
1.58
1.53
1.59
11.73
11.29
25.57
13.77
14.67
5.00
3.43
5.42
2.84
3.72
.51
1
2
2
2
1
.84
.60
.73
.91
.51
4.09
2. 58
3.36
2.51
3.30
9.26
1.66
11.06
1.55
1.81 11.06
6.48
1.63
14.23
1.53
.14
1
.14
2
1
1
1
.75
.36
.53
.41
1
2
2
2
1
2.14
1.51
4.22
2.02
2.09
3.08
1.37
2.24
6.97
1.48
4.71
6.13
1.61
3.81
8.38
1.05
7.96
4.23
1.37
3.09
.60
2.24
.55
.95
21.41
.50
2.04
1.65
1.64
1.04
.27
.79
1.09
2.35
10.47
1.89
1.01
1.30
3.66
1.45
2.53
3.34
1.66
2.02
.14
.26
1.79
.51
.31
1.65
.27
.21
2.22
.71
.30
2.19
.26
.50
.76
.48
.63
.47
.17
1.00
.20
.59
.60
.11
.72
.15
.46
.27
.13
.62
.13
.32
.52
Jan. '53-Oct. '68..
.83
.11
.82
Jan. '53-June '68..
.Jan. '53-Sep. '68..
Jan. '53-Dec. '68..
Jan, '53-June '68,.
1.69
.54
.93
1.38
Jan. '53-Sep. '68- Jan. '53-Nov.'68..
Jan. '53*Nov.'68..
Jan. '53-Nov/68. Jan. '53-Nov.'68..
.95
.91
.84
.81
.93
.43
.72
.64
.66
.51
.77
.49
.50
.42
.68
Jan. '53-Oct. '68. .
Jan. '53-Sep. '68..
Jan. '53-Sep. '68.-
.97
.89
.89
.90
.43
.30
.28
.75
.83
.15
.13
.90
1.33
.18
.43
.50
.93
.50
.82
1.23
.52
1.28
.80
.72
1.03
.75
.53
.79
1.62
.84
1.17
1.19
1.45
1.43
.36
.53
.41
.62
1.47
1.27
1.57
.75
3.14
.57
.36
3
2
3
3
5
5
6
4
2
3
6
3
2
2
3
0.73
.82
.72
.68
.92
.79
1
C)
.84
.62
.83
4.09
4.16
4.79
3.98
3.30
1.59
27.00
14,54
1.91
6.96
4.15
5.14
1.50
1.58
1.50
1.62
16.82
26.86
27.29
15,42
2.92
6.96
4.15
5.14
.62
.78
.62
.93
.75
3.92
2.21
2.16
2.26
3.28
1.54
1.53
1.51
1.71
1.61
10.44
11.18
10.56
10.56
9.50
3.92
3.57
4.30
2.95
3.28
3
1
1
.90
.57
.36
1.63
4.37
6.96
1.45
1.48
1.52
12.60
17.09
20.89
3.53
4.37
6.96
2
4
6
4
4
.73
.90
.90
.73
3.36
1.82
1.42
1,60
1.79
1.81
1.62
1.36
1.49
1.62
11.06
11.80
12.80
9.07
11.80
4.79
3.41
2.57
2.77
3.48
i
1.44
1.43
1,48
1.52
2.41
1.47
1.46
1.43
1.42
1.71
8.50
9.33
9.78
10.28
8.55
2.06
1.96
2.59
2.22
4.65
1.88
1.68
1.63
1.76
1.75
1.54
9.40
6.96
11.06
8.17
5.63
152.00
4.04
3.72
4.48
4.45
3.53
50.67
14.54
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
58
502.
506.
508.
Wholesale prices, manufactured goods ©
Exports, excluding military aid2
Export orders, durables except motor vehicles ....
Export orders, nonelectrical machinery.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-Sep. '68..
'53-Oct. '67'63-May '68..
'57-May'68..
'53-Oct. '67. .
10.41
July
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-Sep. '67..
'56-Sep. '67. .
'53-Sep. '67. .
'53-June '68. .
'53-Sep. '68.,
616
621.
625.
647
Defense Department obligations total
Defense Department obligations, procurement
Military contract awards in U.S.
New orders defense products industries
7Rfl
WhnlpQfllp nrirp^ 3ll rnmmnditip^ fu^
751.
752.
781.
782.
783.
784.
Wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds © . . Jan. '5a-Sep. '68..
Jan. '53-Sep. '68..
Wholesale prices, farm products ©
Consumer prices, all items ©
Jan. '53-Sep. '68. .
Jan. '53-Sep. '68. .
Consumer prices, food ©. . ,~T
Jan. '56-Sep. '68. .
Consumer prices, commodities less foods ©
Jan. '56-Sep. '68. .
Consumer prices, services ©
.20
3.58
1.19
3.74
10.28
1.13
9.13
6.62
6.39
1.79
3.57
2.87
2.69
13.58
26.22
20.91
20.01
.29
13.32
26.08
20.82
19.93
.24
.73
1.46
See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 1.
3.36
.20
.47
.22
.26
.61
1.26
.11
.35
.13
.07
.87
3.09
1.37
9.74
2.00
13.04
2.61
7.98
1.65
12.04
.13
1.82
.33
.54
.16
.26
.16
.26
1.84
6
6
6
6
.69
.80
.27
C)
.76
2.34
1.35
1
1
2
1
1
.81 2.24
2.04
.95
4.48
.69
3.08
.96
3.53
.80
.27 50.67
101
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 1. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Period
covered
Monthly series
Cl
1
C
I/C
I/C
for
MCD
span
MCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
1
C
MCD
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
851.
852.
853.
855.
856.
859.
Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg, and trade
Jan. '53- May '68.
Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, durable goods . Jan. '53-Apr. '68 .
Ratio, production of bus. equip, to consumer goods. Jan. '53-June'68 .
Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfilled to unemployed Jan. '53-Jan. '69 .
Real avg. hourly earnings, production workers, mfg.Jan. '53-Dec.'67.
Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers
Jan. 'G4-Dec.'67..
9.20
12.20
8.81
8.35
10.53
1.01
1.87
.95
5.37
.39
0.88
1.62
.62
3.24
.36
0.46
.88
.63
3.92
.18
1.93
1.84
.99
.83
2.03
2
3
1
1
3
0.98
.74
.99
.83
.77
2.83
2.13
2.72
3.20
3.14
1.55
1.63
1.62
1.55
1.56
.32
.28
.13
2.04
3
.74
1.96
1.57 11.75
121.
122.
123.
125
126
OECD European countries, industrial production . . Jan. '53-Dec. '67 . .
.89
United Kingdom, industrial production
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
1.04
.81
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Canada, industrial production
1.72
Jan. '53-Dec. '67..
West Germany industrial production
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 . . 1.19
France industrial production
.83
.98
.67
1.59
1.07
.56
.37
.55
.63
.62
1.49
2.63
1.21
2.53
1.71
2
3
2
3
2
.82
.94
.56
.68
.87
3.98
2.38
4.29
2,06
3.45
1.54
1.45
1.41
1.43
1.48
16.27
8.80
10.35
19.89
16.00
7.74
4.14
6.48
4.32
9.21
127.
128.
132
133
135.
Italy, industrial production
Japan, industrial production
United Kingdom consumer prices©
Canada consumer prices®
West Germany, consumer prices©
1.43
1.69
.45
.25
.32
1.28
1.17
.49
.31
.36
.72
1.23
.27
.19
.22
1.78
.95
1.82
1.66
1.65
2
1
3
2
3
.98
.95
.73
.93
.75
2.79
3.59
6.29
9.26
8.00
1.66
1.39
1.68
2.00
1.98'
29.33
13.54
14.67
11.00
11.73
4.07
3.59
8.70
12.50
11.60
136
137.
138.
142.
143.
France consumer prices©
Italy, consumer prices®.
Japan, consumer prices®.
United Kingdom, stock prices®
Canada stock prices®
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'53-Sep.
'67..
.52
'67..
.33
.81
'67 . .
'67.. 3.13
'67.. 2.77
.44
.35
.74
2.49
2.13
.39
.31
.38
1.68
1.61
1.14
1.14
1.95
1.48
1.33
2
2
3
2
2
.59
7.04
.61 19.56
3.09
.69
2.63
.90
.87 3.26
8.80
1.54
8.38
1.80
1.64 10.35
8.00
1.71
1.78 11.00
7.61
25.00
6.96
3.72
3.98
145.
146.
147.
148.
West Germany, stock prices©
France, stock prices ®
Italy, stock prices©
Japan, stock prices®
Jan,
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-Sep. '67 . .
'53-Sep. '67..
' 53-Sep. '67..
'53-Sep. '67 . .
2.03
3.35
3.00
2.44
2.37
1.87
1.89
2.29
.86
1.79
1.59
1.07
1
3
3
2
.86
.66
.72
.64
7.33
7.33
8.80
7.04
3.52
4.14
5.12
4.49
4.57
4.31
2.72
3.20
7.08
3.21
F. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
— Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-Sep. '67..
'53-Sep. '67..
'53-Sep. f 67..
'53-Sep. '67..
'53-Sep. '67..
3.34
4.00
3.78
3.60
3.52
2.48
2.44
3.26
1.B5
1.68
1.85
1.68
x
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators.
® Measures are based on unadjusted data.
Not shown
2
when MCD ie "6."
Measures based on data adjusted for abnormalities during the periods December 1962-Mareh 1963 and December
1964-May 1965 due to effects of strikes.
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1
The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business
Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper
57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957
(reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957).
"CI" is the average month-to-month percentage change,
without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series
(i.e., the series after adjustment for measurable seasonal,
trading-day, and holiday variations).
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth,
flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, obtained by
dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted
series.
"MOD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small for
smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving
MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the
irregular component and the cyclical component over 1-month
spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar,, etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar.,
Feb.-Apr,, etc.), up to 12-month spans. Averages, without
regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each
span. MCD is the shortest span in months for which the
102
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
cyclical component is larger than the average percentage
change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component,
and remains so.
Thus, it indicates the point at which
fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series became dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series
with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small
values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally
adjusted series. It is shown for 1-month spans and_for spans
of the period of MCD. When MCD is "6", noT/C ratio is
shown for the MCD period.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations.
When there is no change between 2 months, a
change in the same direction as the preceding change is
assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C,
and the MCD curve. The MCD curve is an unweighted
moving average (with the number of terms equal to MCD)
of the seasonally adjusted series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART I—Continued
adjusted series has been successfully separated into an
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom)
month intervals in a random series, the expected value of
component.
Finally, ADR is 4.13 for the MCD moving
the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36
average. This indicates that a 2-month moving average of
and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month interthe seasonally adjusted series (2 months being the MCD
vals in a moving average (MCD) of a random series, the
expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of
span) reverses direction, on the average, about every 4
CI is 1.75 for the series on average weekly initial claims,
months. The increase in the ADR from 1.75 for CI to 4.13
for the MCD moving average indicates that, for this series,
State unemployment insurance (series 5), This indicates
month-to-month changes in the MCD moving average usually
that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on
reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements of the series,
the average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a
whereas the month-to-month changes in the seasonally adrandom series. The ADR measures shown in the next two
justed series usually do not.
columns, 1.47 for I and 12.00 for C, suggest that the seasonally
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 2. Monthly Series: Average Actual Changes
Period
covered
Monthly series
Unit of
measure
i/c
CI
1
C
f/c
MCD
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
1
C
MCD
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Jan, '53-Sep. '68. Per 100
employees .
Jan. '53-Sep. '68. . . do
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing
20. Change in book value, manufacturers'
Jan. '53-June'68. Ann. rate,
bil. dol
inventories of materials, supplies.
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur, goods indus. . Jan. '53-June'68. Bil. do!
2 Accession rate manufacturing
26. Buying policy, production materials, commitments 60 days or longer ©
*31, Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories .
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
40.
*43.
*44.
45.
Unemployment rate, married males
Unemployment rate, total
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Average weekly insured unemploy. rate
0.18
.16
0.17
.15
0.06
.06
3.08
2.43
4 0.81
.85
3
2.07 1.55
2.41 1.57
11.75
7.52
3.56
5.03
1.41
.48
1.35
.45
.29
.13
4.60
3.54
6
4
C1)
.96
1.57
1.70
1.47
1.61
6.85
8.04
3.05
3.19
Jan. '53- Sep. '68. Pet. reporting 2.86
Jan. '53-Sep.'68. Ann. rate,
bil. doL . . . 3.72
2.62
1.03
2.53
3
.80
1.86
1.63
8.95
3.65
3.62
.76
4.74
5
.98
1.48
1.41
6.27
2.52
Jan. '53-Sep. '68. Pet. reporting
Jan. '55-Jan.'69. Ann, rate,
bil. dol
3.43
2.76
1.85
1.49
2
.97
3.03
1.86
8.17
3.74
1.03
.90
.38 2.33
3
.80
1.98
1.60
11.20
3.53
Jan. '53-Sep. '68. Pet. reporting
Jan.'53-Aug.'68. Percent ....
Nov. '54-Jan. '69- ... do
Jan. '53-Jan. '69. ...do
Jan.'53-Jan. '69- ...do
Jan. '53-Sep. '68 - ...do
3.06
.05
.15
.18
,07
.16
2.57
.04
.12
.14,
.06
.09
3
3
2
2
2
1
.78
.75
.88
.76
.60
.72
2.41 1.65
2.49 1.77
3.95 1.52
2.56 1.50
4.92 1.66
4.82 1.79
7.83
7.67
11.33
7.68
7.68
7.52
3.72
4.09
4.33
3.75
6.59
4.82
6
2
(L)
.96
1.40
2.07
1.36
1.59
6
C1)
1.52
1.41
7.04
2.78
6
3
C1)
.88
1.56
1,69
1.56
1.52
10.78
11.81
3.83
3.22
1.35
.02
.08
.10
.05
.12
1.91
1.78
1.58
1.47
1.17
.72
Jan. '53-Apr. '68. Ann. rate,
.37 7.83
percent. . . . 2.85 2.87
93.44 75.38 46.88 1.61
93. Free reserves®
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. Mil. dol
98. Change in money supply and time deposits- - - Jan. '53- Apr. '68. Ann. rate,
2.38
.48 4.97
2.42
percent —
Aug. '59-Sep.'67. Ann. rate,
2.72
.28 9.78
bil. dol.... 2.77
.92
.32 2.60
Jan. '53-Oct. '68. ...do
.84
*113. Change in consumer installment debt
114. Treasury bill rate©
116 Corporate bond yields (5)
117 Municipal bond yields m)
118 Mortgage yields residential ©
Jan. '53-Sep. '68. Percent ....
Jan. '53-Sep. '68. ...do
Jan. '53-Sep. '68. ...do
Jan. '53-Sep. '68. ...do
Jan. '53-Sep. '68. ...do
10.76 2.87
9.26 3.13
.15
.06
.11
.08
.04
.10
.05
.10
.07
.02
.10
.04
.06
.04
.03
1.00
1.47
1.65
1.82
.53
2
3
3
3
1
.62
.68
.71
.83
.53
2.61
2.72
2.32
2.58
8.55
1.81
1.96
1.71
1.86
1.94
6.27
7.83
10.44
8.55
7.23
3.74
4.89
3.87
4.04
8.55
57.74
55.59
15.55
3.58
4
,86
1,62
1.57
9.32
3.55
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
500. Merchandise trade balance3.
Jan. '53-Oct. '67. Mil, dol
1
*;3eries included in
the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators.
©Measures are based on unadjusted data.
Not3 shown
2
when MCD is "6."
Bimonthly series; average changes, MCD, and average durations of run are for bimonthly spans.
Measures
based on data adjusted for abnormalities during the periods December 1962-March 1963 and December 1964-May 1965 due to effects
of strikes.
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2
These measures are computed by an additive method. This
method is used for series with zero or negative data and for
other series where it seems appropriate, such as series
expressed in percent.
Thus, "Cl* is the average month-to-month change in the
seasonally adjusted series.
This average is computed
without regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of
measure as the series itself.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, which is
determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the
seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures have the same meaning as in part 1.
103
B. Current Adjustment Factors
1<J69
19 68
Series
May
June
July
Aug,
Sept
Oct.
4 Non agricultural placements all industries * ,..,... 104.3 110 ,& 104.2 111.4 117.3 116.0
5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment
insurance ,
78.4 79.3 121.9 85.0 70.8 80.0
13 New business incorporations
1
106.1
2
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, mfg.
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies1 3.
97.3
4-1^7
4-1 Q3
-«-6l +218
90 6 101.1
93.8
Dec.
Jan.
81.3 87.4
97*8 .134.9 151.3
84 0 100.1
_qc
4-IQ/i
99.1 100.7
97.7 91.4
92.4
97.4
99.0
99.0
616. Defense Department obligations, total
621, Defense Department obligations, procurement
91.8 151.9
100.4 204.0
91.8 188.0
99.6
93.9
81.3
92.2
114.5
92.5
-272
-448
102.3
101.0
106,2
Apr.
May
100.4 102.3
93-3
78. A
June
in. 3
79.3
103.9
-1U
107. C
109.8
120.1 102.9 98.0 111.1 115.5 106.5 94.1 79.8 83*4
99 4 101.9 101.2 99 0 100.1 99.2 99.5 101.1 99 3
99.7
94.1
Mar,
97.8
-120
99.9 100.4 100.0
100.3 100.2 93.1
Feb.
118 2 93 7 100 1 105.3 102 0 101 8
102.0
+128
112, Change in business loans 5
508. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery
625, Military contract awards in U.S
D34. Profits, manufacturing (FNCB)6
95.2
96.2
103.9
37. Purchased materials, percent of companies reporting
higher inventories
104.2 100.9
39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days and over, total installment
4
loans . ..
91.8
49. Non agricultural job openings unfilled
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
101.0
Nov.
+59
+93
+215
106.5 103.4 103.1
93.6
91.9
84. 7 94.5 109.0
98 7 100 5 100.0
X2CU
99.8 99.7 100.3 100,2 99.0 100.1 100.1
98,9 100.7 103.0 106.0 101.7 111.3
99.1
99.9
99.7
103.0
99 3 101,8
100.6
99.6
95.0 102.0 112 0 100 1 S5.6 9^.7 91.2 80.6
62.8 98.1 109.3 99.0 76.3 95 9 77 2 71 0
96 o
95.6
97-9 94.4 151.1
9Q 0 96 9 204 9
92 2 87 1 81 0
88 7
86 4
96.8 90.5 TlA 7
-9
QA.7
+g
7Q L
-15
96 6
18*> 7
+16
NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census or the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever
they are published. For a'description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-11 Variant of the Census Method
)l Seasonal Adjustment Pro gram.
l
Faetors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained "by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors due to
rounding.
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to "be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly
totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census
Method II seasonal adjustment program.
^Bimonthly series. Data are for even-numbered months (February, April, June, etc.).
^Factors apply to monthly totals before month-to-month changes are computed.
6
l-quarter diffusion index: Figures are placed on the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed
and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, arc
subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.
104
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol <g> (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have notbeen seasonally adjusted'
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Apr.
Mar.
33.
May
June
Quarterly
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Now
Dec.
1 Q
IV Q
III Q
11 Q
INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES ( 1957-59 = 1 OO)1
Annual
AVERAGE
1945..
...
1947..
112.8
117.2
123.0
120.1
lll.l
109.0
84.3
110.1
80.3
111.6
80.6
116.3
81.4
123.3
101.7
128.5
111.3
129.1
•• . . ...
113.4
117.7
81.7
112.7
98.1
127.0
ml?
1948..
1949..
1950..
129.6
117.1
94.5
124.7
110.7
93.6
119.7
102.2
93.3
121.2
91.6
94.4
120.4
90.3
98.6
121.8
87.4
102.2
121.6
89.0
113.3
122.4
93.9
128.2
120.7
95.4
143.3
118.5
91.5
14B.7
121.8
94.2
159.4
119.9
93.2
164.7
124.7
110..0
93.8
121.1
89.8
98.4
121.6
92.8
128.3
120.1
93.0
157.6
121.9
96.4
119.5
1951..
1952*.
1953..
173.7
130.8
102.6
175.1
123.8
101.9
170.1
118.9
103.0
167.8
115.5
98.2
165.4
113.8
97.5
157.4
110.8
97.0
139.6
109.3
96.3
134.6
108.8
95.8
133.1
109.2
93.7
136.0
106.1
90.8
134.0
106.1
93.2
133.8
105.2
93.1
173.0
124.5
102.5
163.5
113.4
97.6
135.8
109.1
95.3
134.6
105.8
92.4
151.7
113.2
96.9
1954..
1955..
1956..
92.0
102.1
112.6
91.4
103.7
110.8
92.7
96.1
101.8 103.4
111.6
111. I
97.1
102.2
107.7
97.8
103.4
104.8
96.7
107.2
105.3
96.3
108.6
108.2
97.7
110.0
110.2
99.4
109.2
109.4
99.9
110.7
112.3
99.7
114.0
112.4
92.0
102.5
111.5
97.0
103.0
108.0
96.9
108.6
107.9
99.7
111.3
111.4
96.4
106.4
109.7
1957..
1958..
1959..
109.4
93.2
99.6
106.0
93.4
99.5
105.7
92.6
101.1
104.7
90.2
102.1
103.8
90.6
102.8
104.4
92.1
103.2
103.8
94.7
103.2
103.1
96.4
103.7
100.0
96.3
105.1
96.9
99.3
105.8
94.9
101.8
105.9
94.3
100.3
104.8
ioa.i
107.0
93.1
104.3
91.0
102.7
102.3
95*8
104.0
95.4
100.5
105.5
192.2
95.1
103.1
I960..
1961..
1962,.
105.7
97.3
102.9
104.3
99.3
100.6
102.4
103.1
100.4
103.8
104.1
98.3
104.1
104.4
97.8
102.7
101*0
95.4
101.6
101.7
94.2
102.1
102.9
94.5
101.2
102.9
94.0
99.7
102.3
94.9
98.5
98.9
96.4
96.8
101.0
95.8
104.1
99.9
101.3
103.5
103.2
97.2
101.6
102.5
94.2
98.3
100,7
95.7
101.9
101.5
97.1
1963..
1964..
1965..
95.5
98,5
110.6
95.1
98.5
110.7
94.4
98.9
113.2
94.5
102.4
116.7
95.2
100.9
116.9
93.9
101.4
115.3
94.2
102.5
114.6
94.2
105.7
115.2
94.1
108.2
114.8
96.3
112.0
115.0
97.3
113.2
115.5
97.7
112.5
117.1
95.0
98.6
111.5
94.5
101.6
116.3
94.2
105.5
114.9
97.1
112.6
115.9
95.2
104.6
114*6
1966..
1967..
120,5
106.8
122.9
105.2
123.5
102.5
121.5
100.1
118.3
99.6
118.4
99.8
118.8
98.3
111.7
98.1
108.9
97.8
106.3
97.7
105.9
99.1
105.8
100.1
122.3
104.8
119.4
99.8
113.1
98.1
106.0
99.0
115.2
100.4
72.
COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LOANS OUTSTANDING, WEEKLY REPORTING
LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS (MIL. DOL. )
END OF PERIOD
...
...
1948.. 13,583 13,497 13,493 13,709 14,039 14,207 14,545 14,597 14,518 14,479 14,434 14,311
1949.. 14,199 14,093 13,934 13,698 13,454 13,028 12,922 12,733 12,764 12,853 12,779 12,77:5
1950.. 12,855 12,860 12,894 13,007 13,161 13,401 13,907 14,461 14,996 15,286 15,865 16,3d9
13,493
13,934
12,8-94
14,207
13,028
13,401
14,518
12,764
14,996
14,311
12,775
16,389
14,311
12,775
16,389
1951.. 16,886 17,525 17,972 18,425 18,708 18,839 18,873 19,095 19,186 19,366 19,414 19,876
1952.. 19,812 19,911 19,994 19,974 20,060 20,248 20,368 20,438 20,667 21,014 21,343 21,379
1953.. 21,532 21,485 21,708 21,994 22,044 21,873 22,084 22,074 21,944 21,867 21,522 21,411
17,972
19,994
21,708
18,839
20,248
21,873
19,186
20,667
21,944
19,876
21,379
21,411
19,876
21,379
21,411
1954.. 21,202 21,234 21,237 21,069 21,052 20,849 20,841 19,930 19,940 19,788 20,587 20,574
1955.. 20,849 21,041 21,103 21,414 21,767 22,232 22,663 23,074 23,352 23,697 24,269 24,519
1956.. 24,976 25,170 26,050 26,538 26,779 27,286 27,615 27,900 28,222 28,389 28,594 28,957
21,237
21,103
26,050
20,849
22,232
27,286
19,940
23,352
28,222
20,574
24,519
28,957
20,574
24,519
28,957
1957.. 29,120 29,234 29,658 29,994 30,038 30,726 30,641 30,661 30,787 30,208 29,766 29,881
1958.. 29,477 29,316 29,168 28,722 28,588 28,480 28,282 28,405 28,568 28,718 28,749 28,966
1959.. 29,045 29,074 29,259 29,670 30,260 30,616 30,523 30,764 30,975 31,138 31,357 31,328
29,658
29,168
29,259
30,726
28,480
30,616
30,787
28,968
30,975
29,881
28,966
31,328
29,881
28,966
31,323
I960.. 31.924 32,229 32,408 32,708 33,112 33,088 33,089 32,940 33,174 33,188 33,313 32,884
1961.. 33,253 33,327 33,388 33,297 33,175 33,036 33,261 33,326 33,271 33,480 33,489 33,730
1962.. 33,869 33,994 34,228 34,358 34,575 34,752 34,997 35,444 35,668 36,050 36,170 36,068
32,408
33,388
34,228
33,088
33,036
34,752
33,174
33,271
35,668
32,884
33,730
36,068
32,884
33,730
36,068
1963.. 36,274 36,412 36,467 36,682 36,826 37,051 37,147 37,348 37,676 38,236 38,932 39,865
1964.. 39,262 39,520 39,499 39,891 40,247 40,373 40,843 41,231 41,836 42,014 42,417 43,326
1965.. 44,175 45,205 46,170 46,793 47,497 48,764 49,129 49,840 50,478 50,946 51,346 52,174
36,467
39,499
46,170
37,051
40,373
48,764
37,676
41,836
50,478
39,865
43,326
52,174
39,665
43,326
52,174
1966.. 53,255 53,747 54,522 55,118 56,134 57,192 58,031 58,895 59,321 59,972 60,344 60,118
1967.. 60,936 61,138 61,592 62,345 62,209 62,580 62,911 62,817 63,246 63,592 64,053 65,102
54,522
61,592
57,192
62,580
59,321
63,246
60,118
65,102
60,118
65,102
^•Series
23 contains no revisions, but is shown to incorporate quarterly and annual totals not previously shown,
2
Series 72 is revised beginning June 1966. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
(APRIL
1969)
105
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Monthly
Year
Jan.
D5.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Quarterly
July
Aug.
Oct.
Sept.
DIFFUSION INDEX FOR INITIAL CLAIMSi STATE UNEMPLOYMENT
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
II Q
INSURANCE— U7 AREAS
1IIQ
IV Q
Annual
AVERAGE
(PERCENT DECLINING; I-MONTH SPAN)
1946. «
1947..
**
»•
•*
1949. .
1950.,
•*
.*
•.
1951..
1952*.
1953..
70.2
61.7
51.1
23-4
29.8
61.7
40.4
44.7
59.6
28.7
38.3
50.0
29.8
46.8
39*4
27.7
74.5
38.3
SKI
36.2
58.5
19.1
34.0
42.6
61.7
50.4
48.9
46.1
41.1
64*6
37.6
SO. 7
39.0
* ••
52*9
41.7
1954..
1955..
1956..
21.3
44.7
61.7
42.6
66.0
55.3
34.0
66.0
44.7
48.9
53.2
63.8
48*9
57.4
37.2
61.7
34.0
44.7
57.4
71.3
40.4
17.0
46.8
68.1
53. 2
47.9
44.7
44.7
50.0
64.9
89.4
66.0
44.7
78.7
27.7
29.8
32.6
58.9
53*9
53.2
48.2
48.6
42. S
55*3
51*1
70.9
47.9
46.5
49.8
52.6
50.0
1957..
1958..
1959..
27.7
38.3
87.2
80.9
5.3
40 » 4
38.3
53.2
59.6
27.7
44.7
85.1
48.9
73.4
40*4
42.6
55.3
38.3
36.2
59.6
51.1
54.3
46.8
45.7
27.7
60.6
40.4
42*6
72.3
17.0
21.3
64.9
53.2
55.3
36.2
91.5
49.0
32.3
62*4
39.7
57.8
54.6
39.4
55.7
45.7
39.7
57.8
93.9
42. 3
50.9
54.2
I960..
1961..
1962..
31.9
59*6
46.8
44.7
17*0
76.6
17.0
80.9
38.3
46.8
46.8
48.9
36.2
51.1
46.8
41.5
70.2
19.1
62.8
46.8
63.8
19.1
57.4
61.7
68.1
47.9
42*6
40.4
SO. 9
36.2
34.0
72.3
72.3
61.7
31.9
36.2
31.2
52.5
53f.9
41.5
56.0
38.3
50.0
50.7
56.0
45.4
61.7
48*2
42.0
55. 2
*9.1
1963..
1964..
1965*.
34*0
89.4
24.5
89.4
27.7
57.4
31*9
57.4
66.0
47.9
77.7
61.7
46.8
48.9
59.6
68.1
48.9
51.1
44.7
63.8
34.0
44.7
51.1
38.3
44.7
53.2
78.7
59.6
34.0
57.4
40.4
31.9
44.7
23.4
83.0
51*1
51.8
58*2
49.3
54.3
58.5
57.5
44.7
56.0
50.3
41.1
49.6
51.1
48.0
5S.6
52.0
1966.*
1967*.
38.3
55.3
44.7
17,0
83.0
46.8
53.2
55.3
45.7
54.3
57.4
55.3
17.0
34.0
72.3
72.3
80.9
60.6
36.2
38.3
46.8
74.5
27.7
46*6
55.3
39.7
52.1
55.0
56*7
55*6
36.9
53.2
50.3
50.9
05.
DIFFUSION INDEX
FOR INITIAL CLAIMSi STATE UNEMPLOYMENT
(PERCENT DECLINING I 9-MONTH SPAN)
INSURANCE--^? AREAS
AVERAGE
.. *
...
1948..
.**
...
...
1952. .
1953..
55.3
42.6
38.3
44.7
8.5
74.5
10.6
72.3
4.3
63.8
2.1
72.3
2.1
80.9
0.0
74.5
10.6
80.9
6.4
87*2
2.1
*. .
45.4
63.8
7.8
72.3
1.4
80.9
6.4
...
* »•
15.2
1954..
1955..
1956..
4.3
93.6
46.8
10.6
87.2
44.7
25.5
93.6
29.8
27.7
85.1
38.3
14*9
83.0
43.6
25.5
85.1
57.4
66.0
78.7
55.3
95.7
55.3
42.6
93.6
59.6
21.3
93.6
70.2
63.8
91.5
66.0
43.6
87*2
68.1
42.6
13.5
91.5
40.4
22.7
84.4
46.4
85.1
64. S
39.7
90*8
63.1
50.0
S3.D
77.1
44.2
1957..
1958..
1959..
34.0
4.3
97.9
31.9
19.1
93.6
23.4
12.8
76.6
21.3
31.9
76*6
12.8
27.7
83.0
21.3
57.4
19.1
0.0
95.7
36*2
4.3
91.5
48.9
8*S
97.9
25.5
0.0
93.6
25.5
0.0
97.9
17.0
6.4
91.5
31.9
29.8
12.1
89.4
18.5
39.0
59.6
4.3
95.0
36.9
2.1
94.3
24.8
13*7
60.1
52.6
1960*.
1961..
1962..
14.9
55.3
80.9
25.5
53.2
55.3
51.1
63.8
48.9
25.5
85.1
36.2
12.8
70.2
46*8
10.6
89.4
44.7
6.4
100.0
38.3
21.3
93.6
27.7
21.3
88.3
27.7
14.9
95.7
53.2
27.7
93.6
74.5
19*1
80.9
53.2
30.5
57.4
61.7
16.3
81.6
42. 6
16.3
94*0
31.2
20. 6
90.1
60.3
20.9
3D. 3
49.0
1963.*
1964*.
1965*.
44.7
73.4
78.7
66.0
72.3
78.7
72.3
70.2
59.6
48.9
74.5
66.0
63.8
69*4
61.7
80.9
60.6
78.7
46.8
61.7
80.9
31.9
89.4
87.2
85.1
61.7
70.2
60.6
70.2
62.8
53.2
74.5
91.5
73.4
72*3
95*7
61.0
72.0
72.3
64.5
74.8
68.8
54.6
70.9
79.4
62.4
72.3
83.3
60. &
72.5
76.0
1966*.
1967..
91.5
27.7
74.5
8.5
44.7
8.5
68.1
31.9
76.6
44.7
78.7
29.8
80.9
78.7
34.0
78.7
34.0
66.0
23.4
30.9
17.0
70.2
46.8
78.7
70.2
14.9
74.5
35.5
49.6
74.5
29.1
76.6
5S.8
50.4
NOTE:
Series on this page contain no revisions, "but are shown to incorporate quarterly and annual totals not previously shown.
( A P R I L L969)
106
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ® (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have notbeen seasonally adjustedtherefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
D19.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Quarterly
July
Aug.
Sept.
D I F F U S I O N I N D E X FOR STOCK P R I C E S * 500 COMMON
I N D U S T R I E S (1-MONTH SPAN)
Oct
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
II Q
STOCKS — 77
IIIQ
IV Q
Annual
AVERAGE
.. •
•.*
* .*
1947
** .
1948..
1949..
1950..
...
73.7
87.5
2,5
17.5
66.2
81.2
71.2
66*2
93.1
47.5
47.5
95*6
29.4
75.0
80.0
1.9
33.1
12.5
100.0
19.4
3.7
95.0
94.4
31.9
72.3
90.0
61.9
95.0
92.5
1.2
65.6
31.9
41.2
86*2
52.5
54.1
73.3
89.6
26.3
51.9
16.0
89.2
67,9
34.8
82.3
59.0
...
63.0
63*0
1951..
1952..
1953..
98.7
76.9
71.2
85.0
25.6
43.7
21*9
56.2
80.6
49.4
21.2
5.6
40.0
38*1
41.2
20.0
78.1
0.0
47.5
85.6
65.0
92.5
53.7
76.9
93.1
13.7
0.0
41.9
13.7
75. 6
6.2
90.0
81.2
71.2
90*0
67.5
6ft. 5
52.9
65.2
36.5
45*8
15*6
77.7
51.0
47.3
39.8
64.6
74.8
55*6
53.6
50.7
1954..
1955..
1956..
93.1
72.5
41.2
79.4
87.5
41.9
80.6
47.5
88.7
85.6
83.7
33.7
86.9
33.1
23*1
71.2
88.7
20.0
90,6
53,7
95.0
83*1
23.1
56.9
51.9
70.6
12.5
60.6
5.0
23.7
91.9
86.9
46.9
96*2
71.9
45.6
84*4
69.2
57*3
81*2
66,5
25.6
75,2
49.1
54.8
82.9
54.6
38.7
80.9
60.4
44.1
1957..
1958..
1959..
57.5
91.9
86.2
13*7
77.5
62.5
81*2
73.1
80.6
74.4
59.4
53.1
78.7
91.2
53.7
42.5
86.2
41*9
51.9
85.6
80.6
7.5
88.7
42.5
8.1
84.4
9.4
4.4
80.0
52.5
26.2
89*4
55.6
49.4
82*5
71.9
50.8
80.8
76.4
65.2
78.9
49.6
22.5
86.2
44*2
26.7
84.0
60.0
41.3
82.5
57.5
1960*.
1961..
1962..
27.5
86.9
25.6
12.5
96.2
75.0
34.4
85.6
47.5
51.9
72.5
8.7
35.0
81.9
1.2
76.2
40.0
1.2
35.0
42.5
69.4
76.2
81.2
78.1
16.9
40.0
36.2
25.0
46.9
8.1
90.0
87.5
98.7
81*2
55*0
84*4
24.8
89.6
49*4
54.4
64.8
3*7
42.7
54.6
61.2
65.4
63.1
63.7
46.8
68.0
44*5
1963..
1964*.
1965..
97.5
74.7
92.2
78.7
65.2
81.8
43.7
78.5
64.3
91.2
75.6
70.8
85*0
52.6
66.9
51.9
35.3
0.0
29.4
89.7
24,7
75.0
41.0
79.9
76.9
76.3
81.2
44.9
73.1
66*9
44.9
59*6
70.1
68.4
24.0
57.1
75.3
72.8
79.4
76.0
54.5
45.9
60*4
69*0
61*9
52.7
52.2
64.7
65.6
62*1
63.0
1966..
1967..
74.0
90.9
48.7
92.2
14.3
61.0
63.6
76.0
3.9
74.0
23.4
51.3
38.3
81,6
6*5
77.6
3.9
57.2
25.3
32.2
88*3
7.9
59.7
71.1
45*7
81*4
30.3
67.1
16,2
72.1
57.8
37.1
37.5
64.4
D19,
D I F F U S I O N I N D E X FOR STOCK P R I C E S t 500 COMMON
I N D U S T R I E S (9-MONTH SPAN)
STOCKS — 77
AVERAGE
*..
...
...
1949..
1950..
27.5
90.0
18.7
87.5
27.5
62.5
53.7
68.7
63.7
71.2
61.2
70.6
71.9
61.2
83.7
67.5
55.0
85.0
65.0
32.5
96.2
78.7
11.2
97.5
80.0
10.0
96.2
84.4
20.0
92.5
96.9
24.6
80.0
...
62.7
70.6
49.6
88.3
70.4
13.7
95.4
87.1
*.•
67.7
77.0
1951..
1952..
1953..
96.2
42.5
59.4
83.7
35.0
38.1
68.7
52.5
55.0
80.0
67.5
48.7
86.2
58.7
16*2
70.0
42.5
17.5
45*6
64.4
30.0
62.5
74.4
31*2
61.2
80.0
53.7
52.5
81.2
65.6
66.2
79.4
83.7
62.5
65.0
83.7
82.9
43.3
50.8
78.7
56.2
27.5
56.4
72.9
38.3
60*4
75,2
77.7
69.
61.
48.
1954..
1955..
1956..
83.7
91.2
56.2
91.2
97.5
51.2
92.5
96.2
72.5
97.5
95.0
67.5
97.5
88.7
55.6
96.2
70.0
48.7
96.2
68.7
43.7
97.5
81.2
31.9
100.0
63.7
33.7
98.7
72.5
27.5
98.7
73.7
41.2
98*7
60.6
33.1
89*1
95.0
60.0
97.1
84*6
57.3
97.9
71.2
36.4
98.7
68.9
33.9
95.
79.
46.
1957.,
1958*.
1959..
51.2
47.5
95.0
59.4
60.0
85.0
65.0
95.0
85.0
50.0
100.0
84.4
36.9
100*0
67.5
20.0
98.7
61.9
25.0
100.0
55.6
23*7
100*0
56.9
31.2
100.0
50.6
26.2
100.0
33.7
30*0
98.7
32.5
30.0
96.2
26.2
58.5
67.5
89.3
35.6
99.6
71.3
26.6
100.0
54.4
28*7
98*3
30.8
37.4
91.3
61,2
I960..
1961..
1962..
30.0
97.5
17.5
41.2
97.5
6.2
42.5
97.5
7.5
42.5
97.5
3.1
36.9
95.6
3.7
38.7
81.2
2.5
46.2
76.2
1.2
57,5
73.7
3.7
68.7
71.2
18.7
83.7
67.5
67.5
90.0
70.0
93.7
97*5
62.5
95.0
37.9
97.5
10.4
39.4
91.4
3*1
57.5
73.7
7.9
90.4
66.7
85.4
56.3
82.3
26.7
1963..
1964..
1965*.
95.0
83.1
80.5
95.0
78.2
58.4
98.7
86.5
51.9
95.0
85.9
58.4
89.1
84.6
72.7
84.6
84.6
67.5
78.2
81.8
61.0
79.5
68.8
59.1
77.6
65.6
63.6
69.2
75.3
60.4
71.2
76.6
67.5
84.4
76.6
70.1
96.2
82.6
63.6
89.6
85.0
66.2
78.4
72.1
61.2
74.9
76.2
66.0
84.8
79.0
64.3
1966..
1967*.
51.9
85.7
43.5
90.3
37.7
97.4
22,1
93*4
11.7
92.1
6.5
86.2
9.7
68.4
22.1
65.8
20.1
71.1
47*4
52.6
58.4
46.1
66.2
50*0
44.4
91.1
13.4
90*6
17.3
68.4
57.3
49*6
33.1
74.9
.* .
NOTE: The diffusion index is based on 82 components through February 1963; on 80 components, March 1963 to August 1963; on 79 components, September 1963 to
March 1964; on 78 components, April 1964 to November 1964; on 77 components, December 1964 to June 1967;. and on 76 components thereafter. These data contain
no revisions, but are shown to incorporate quarterly and annual totals not previously shown.
(APRIL 1969)
107
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ® (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
D23.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
OcL
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
II Q
D I F F U S I O N INDEX FOR INDUSTRIAL M A T E R I A L S PRICES— 13 I N D U S T R I A L
M A T E R I A L S ( 1-MONTH SPAN)
IliQ
IV Q
Annual
AVERAGE
...
...
...
...
1948..
1949..
1950*.
23.1
76.9
38.5
30.8
61.5
38.5
30.8
69.2
76.9
30.8
69.2
61.5
38.5
69.2
53.8
38.5
76.9
53.8
61.5
84.6
30.8
53.8
92.3
7.7
53.8
92.3
61.5
30.6
84.6
46.2
46.2
69.2
30.6
38*5
76.9
...
28.2
69*2
64.1
35.9
71.8
30*8
56.4
89.7
46.2
38.5
76.9
...
39.6
76.9
1951..
1952*.
1953..
64.6
23*1
30*6
76.9
30.8
61.5
53.8
26.9
50.0
69.2
38.5
11.5
53.8
69.2
61.5
19.2
38.5
38.5
0.0
61.5
53.6
7.7
42*3
26.9
7.7
30. S
23*1
69.2
36.5
38.5
23.1
30.8
69.2
61.5
38.5
38*5
71.8
26.9
47.4
47.4
48.7
37.2
5.1
44.9
34.6
51.3
35.9
48.7
43.9
39.1
42.0
1954..
1955..
1956..
30.6
65.4
42.3
38.5
84.6
61.5
84.6
46.2
61.5
84.6
76.9
42.3
53.8
61.5
30.8
53.8
69.2
30.6
38.5
76.9
46.2
36.5
61.5
61.5
65.4
46.2
69.2
69.2
38.5
38.5
53.6
46*2
46.2
50.0
57.7
42.3
51.3
65.4
55.1
64.1
69.2
34.6
47.5
61.5
59.0
57.7
47.5
42.3
55.1
60.9
47*8
1957..
1958..
1959..
30.8
36.5
36.5
23.1
46.2
53.8
53.8
46.2
61.5
57.7
38.5
61.5
38.5
69.2
53.8
38.5
53.8
65.4
34.6
96.2
38.5
30.8
53.8
53.8
11.5
42.3
69.2
23.1
53.8
46.2
7.7
73.1
46.2
46.2
38.5
61.5
35.9
43.6
51.3
44.9
53.8
60.2
25.6
64.1
53.8
25.7
55.1
51.3
33.0
54.2
54.2
I960..
1961..
1962..
69.2
38.5
53.8
42.3
84.6
46.2
36.5
84.6
46.2
53.8
76.9
42.3
46.2
53.8
42*3
46.2
57.7
46.2
42.3
38.5
23.1
30.8
46.2
30.8
38.5
57.7
50.0
23.1
34.6
53.8
23.1
15.4
53.8
15.4
69*2
53.6
50.0
69.2
48.7
48.7
62.8
43.6
37.2
47.5
34.6
20.5
39.7
53.6
39.1
54.8
45.2
1963..
1964..
1965..
61.5
53.6
53.8
46.2
53.8
30.8
50.0
46.2
69.2
46.2
65*4
76.9
46.2
30.8
53.8
69.2
53.8
57.7
46.2
46.2
46.2
38.5
76.9
42.3
69.2
69.2
50.0
69.2
73.1
15.4
50.0
61.5
34.6
57*7
38.5
61.5
52.6
51.3
51.3
53.9
50.0
62.6
51.3
64.1
46.2
59.0
57.7
37.2
54.2
55.8
49.4
1966..
1967..
61.5
46.2
76.9
53.8
46.2
23.1
30*8
23*1
42.3
61.5
46.2
69.2
61.5
30.8
26.9
53.8
0.0
19. Z
19.2
46.2
30.8
46.2
57.7
61^5
61.5
41.0
39.8
51.3
29.5
34.6
35.9
51.3
41.7
44.6
023.
DIFFUSION INDEX FOR I N D U S T R I A L M A T E R I A L S P R I C E S — 13 INDUSTRIAL
M A T E R I A L S (9-MONTH SPAN)
AVERAGE
...
...
...
1949..
1950..
7.7
69.2
0.0
69.2
7.7
84.6
23*1
92.3
7.7
100.0
46.2
15.4
100.0
1951..
1952..
1953..
100.0
30.8
38.5
76.9
30.8
15.4
46.2
23.1
15.4
30.8
30.8
30.8
23.1
30.8
15.4
23.1
23.1
30.8
1954..
1955..
1956..
53.8
65.4
46.2
76.9
61.5
42.3
84.6
69.2
46*2
69.2
69.2
46.2
61.5
76.9
53.8
1957..
1958*.
1959..
30.8
23.1
69.2
34.6
38.5
69.2
38.5
53.8
61.5
30.6
76.9
69.2
I960..
1961..
1962..
46.2
61*5
38.5
38.5
53.8
30.6
46.2
61.5
30.6
1963.*
1964..
1965..
61.5
61.5
69.2
69.2
69.2
76.9
1966..
1967..
53.8
0.0
61.5
15.4
38.5
23.1
100*0
30.8
53.8
100.0
23.1
53.8
100.0
7.7
69.2
100.0
7.7
76.9
100.0
...
5.1
74.3
...
15.4
97.4
35. 9
33.3
100.0
23.1
38.5
38.5
15.4
38.5
30.6
15.4
38.5
23*1
15*4
30.8
23.1
15.4
46.2
38.5
30.8
38.5
46*2
74.4
28.2
23.1
25.7
28.2
25.7
18.0
38*5
30.8
20.5
38.5
35.9
34.6
33.4
28.9
69.2
76.9
53.8
61.5
76.9
53.6
53.6
84.6
46.2
61.5
64.6
30.8
53.8
T6.9
38.5
61.5
69.2
53.8
61.5
53.6
53.6
71.8
69.4
44.9
66.6
74.3
51.3
58.9
82.0
43.6
58.9
66.6
48.7
64.1
72.1
47.1
23.1
76.9
61.5
23.1
76.9
69.2
23.1
76.9
61.5
15.4
84.6
46.2
23.1
69.2
61.5
23.1
76.9
93.8
23.1
73.1
46.2
15.4
61.5
46.2
34.6
38.5
661.6
25.7
76.9
66.6
20.5
76.9
56.4
20.5
70.5
48.7
25.3
65.7
59.6
30.8
61.5
38.5
38.5
76.9
23.1
38.5
53.8
15.4
30.8
53.8
30.8
30.8
53.8
38.5
38.5
53.8
38.5
36.5
53.8
53.8
46.2
53.8
46.2
36.5
46*2
61*5
43.6
58.9
35.4
35.9
64.1
25.7
33.4
53.8
35.9
41.1
51.3
53.8
38.5
57.0
37.2
61.5
69.2
61.5
69.2
76.9
69.2
65.4
76.9
53.8
61.5
80*8
53.8
61.5
64.6
46.2
61.5
76.9
46.2
61.5
69.2
46.2
53.8
69.2
46.2
61.5
76.9
38.5
76.9
69.2
53*6
64*1
66.6
69.2
65.4
76.2
58.9
61.5
76.9
46.2
64*1
71.8
46.2
63.8
73.4
55.1
61.5
26.9
53.8
30.8
30.8
23.1
15.4
23.1
7.7
23.1
7.7
30*8
7.7
46.2
0.0
38.5
0.0
30.8
0.0
30.8
58.9
14.1
33.3
25.7
7.7
33.4
0.0
33.4
25.0
26.6
38.5
23.1
100.0
12.8
66.6
100.0
...
30.1
92.9
NOTE.* Series on thig page eontain no revisions, but are shown to incorporate quarterly and annual totals not previously shown.
(APRIL 1969)
108
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ® {indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title.. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated
alculated from data with mmore digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted*
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
508.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
II Q
IIIQ
IV Q
Annual
AVERAGE
INDEX OF EXPORT ORDERS, NONELECTRICAL MACHINERY (1957-59=100)
«.
*.
.•
*•
.•
.•
..
.•
.•
.*.
.^.
• *-•
.
.
.
1957..
1958..
1959..
140
116
100
134
92
95
122
93
87
109
91
98
121
81
101
87
79
91
97
77
108
97
67
97
97
92
112
104
78
119
99
104
107
102
97
110
132
100
94
106
84
97
97
79
106
102
93
112
109
89
102
I960..
1961..
1962..
105
152
172
117
159
177
133
168
187
116
178
176
130
172
174
136
200
178
133
193
195
148
195
172
139
179
17?
139
176
190
150
179
181
150
173
183
118
160
179
127
183
176
140
189
180
146
176
185
133
177
180
1963..
1964..
196-5..
184
211
228
183
210
235
170
205
242
170
210
238
184
213
241
170
219
238
175
213
241
176
225
245
194
230
231
2ia
197
228
196
236
234
210
233
233
179
209
235
175
214
239
182
223
239
201
229
232
184
219
236
1966..
1967..
237
235
201
196
227
252
195
215
217
220
217
218
201
219
199
230
200
231
240
258
235
234
225
255
222
228
210
218
200
227
233
249
216
230
NOTE:
Series on this page contain no revisions, "but are shewn to incorporate quarterly and annual totals not previously shown.
(APRIL 1969)
109
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series
23 and D23. Index of Industrial Materials Prices
This series measures the spot market price movements of
13 raw industrial materials on commodity markets and
organized exchanges. It is one of two major groupings (the
other being foodstuffs) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics1
index of spot market prices for 22 sensitive basic commodities
whose markets are presumed to be among the first to be
influenced by changes in economic conditions. In most cases,
the commodities used are either raw materials or products
close to the initial production stage. The raw industrial
materials group includes burlap, copper scrap, cotton, hides,
lead scrap, print cloth, rosin, rubber, steel scrap, tallow,
tin, wool tops, and zinc.
"Spot" price refers to the price at which a commodity is
selling for immediate delivery. When spot prices are not
available, "bid" or "asked" prices may be used. The prices
are obtained from trade publications or from Government
agencies.
The commodities used in this index are those which are:
(1) In wide use for further processing (basic), (2) freely
traded in an open market, (3) sensitive to changing conditions
significant in those markets, and (4) sufficiently homogeneous
or standardized so that uniform and representative price
quotations can be obtained over a period of time. Some
commodities (such as crude rubber and tin), which are important in international trade, are also taken into account in
order to reflect the influence of international markets on the
economy.
Spot market prices and indexes are published for each
Tuesday on the following Friday. Daily indexes are unweighted
geometric averages of the individual commodity price relatives.
Summaries of indexes and prices for each month, together
with monthly averages of the indexes, are published in the
first report of the following month. Monthly indexes are
geometric averages of the Tuesday prices during the month.
A housing start consists of the start of construction on a
new housing unit when located within a new building which is
intended primarily as a housekeeping residential building
designed for nontransient occupancy. Start of construction
for private housing units is defined as the beginning of
excavation for the foundation of a building. All housing units
in a multi-family building are counted as being started when
excavation for the building is started.
A housing unit is a single room or group of rooms intended
for occupancy as separate living quarters by a family, by a
group of unrelated persons living together, or by a person
living alone. Excluded are starts of construction on group
quarters (such as dormitories, fraternity houses, nurses'
homes, rooming houses, etc.) and all transient accommodations
(such as transient hotels, motels, tourist cabins, and courts,
etc.). Also excluded are housing provided by conversion of
either residential or nonresidential space to provide additional
numbers of housing units and the production of mobile homes.
The former does not constitute new construction, and the latter
is not construction at all.
In May 1960, the data for 1959, based on a previous method,
were revised and made comparable to the new series. Thus,
data for the period since January 1959 are not entirely comparable with those for the period prior to 1959. Annual levels
for the earlier years have been substantially revised to make
them comparable with those for the later years. Month-tomonth movements for the earlier period, however, were not
similarly revised but were superimposed on the new annual
levels in accordance with the monthly pattern of the old
series. An explanation of the revision of the annual data is
given in the Bureau of the Census report, Housing Starts in
May 1964 (Construction Reports: Housing Starts, C20-60).
The figures shown in that source are limited to annual
aggregates. The monthly data have been prepared by the Business and Defense Services Administration, U.S. Department of
Commerce. (See June 1964 issue of Construction Review.^
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Series D23. Diffusion Indexes. The diffusion indexes are
based on the prices of the 13 raw materials components and
are computed over 1- and 9-month spans. These diffusion
indexes show the percentage of components rising over the
time span and thus reflect the directions of change among the
components—not the magnitudes of the changes. Thus an
increase in the aggregate series (accounted for by large rises
in a few components and slight decreases in the majority of
components) may occur simultaneously with a decrease in the
diffusion index. It should be noted that, for diffusion index
purposes, one half of the components showing no change over
the time span are counted as rising.
The industrial materials prices index is not seasonally
adjusted; however, the 13 components are individually seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the
diffusion index is computed.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
7, New Private Nonfarm Housing Units Started
This series measures the number of private nonfarm
housing units on which construction is started in the United
States each month. All types of accommodations designed as
family living quarters and constructed in new buildings
(including year-round and seasonal houses, houses of all
values and all levels of quality, prefabricated houses,
basement--or capped--houses, shell houses, and houses built
of second-hand materials) a re included.
110
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
29. Index of New Private Housing Units Authorized by Local
Building Permits
This series is a measure of the month-to-month changes
in the number of housing units authorized by local permitissuing places.
Original data for the period 1948-1953 are based upon an
estimate of the number of new privately owned dwelling units
authorized in urban areas as defined in the 1940 Census of
Population. Building permit data from reporting cities, representing approximately 85 percent of the 1940 urban population, were expanded to represent all urban areas by
"matching" nonreporting to reporting urban places on the basis
of city population size and location, and applying trend ratios
for reporting places to nonreporting places.
From 1954 to 1958 the data are based on reports from
approximately 6,600 identical permit-issuing places including
practically all large cities, a large proportion of smaller
cities, and counties, towns, and townships. The 1958 data
(based on 6,600 identical permit-issuing places) were adjusted
to the level of the data for the period beginning 1959 (10,000
places) on the basis of the overlap of the two series in
January-April 1960; and data for the period 1954-1957 have
been adjusted to the level of the later data on the basis of the
estimated overlap of the two series in 1958.
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series-Continued
Data for the period 1959-1962 are based on reports from
10,000 permit-issuing places; for 1963-1967, on 12,000 permitissuing places; and for 1968 to date, on 13,000 permit-issuing
places.
For use in Business Conditions Digest, these data have
been made continuous by ratio adjustment and converted to an
index, 1957-59* 100. Because of changes in the number of
permit-issuing areas during the time periods mentioned above,
this index (1) measures only short-term changes in the number
of housing units authorized by identical permit-issuing places;
(2) does not measure the movement of permits in all permitissuing places; and (3) does not measure the trend of housing
construction in permit and nonpermit issuing places combined.
Hence, because of the variations in coverage, the 1948-53,
1954-58, 1959-62, 1963-67, and 1968-to-date segments are not
directly comparable.
A housing unit is defined as a room or group of rooms
intended for occupancy as separate living quarters by a family,
a group of unrelated persons living together, or by a person
living alone, and containing provision for installed cooking
facilities. Each apartment unit in an apartment building is
counted as one housing unit. Excluded from the data are
group quarters (such as dormitories, fraternity houses,
nurses' homes, rooming houses, etc.) and transient accomodations (such as transient hotels, motels, tourist cabins and
courts, etc.). Mobile homes are also excluded.
These data relate to the issuance of permits and not to the
actual start of construction. Frequently several months may
pass between the issuance of a permit and the start of construction. In a small number of cases, permits are not used
at all and are allowed to lapse.
This index is constructed from seasonally adjusted data
published by the source agency.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Ill
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1961
Duration in months
Business cycle reference dates
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Cycle
Expansion
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
Trough
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867 . .
December 1870
March 1879,
June 1857
.October 1860
.April 1865
June 1869
.October 1873
".March 1882
May 1885
April 1888
May. 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
.March 1887
July 1890
January 1893 .
.December 1895
June 1899
.September 1902
(x)
18
8
32
(X)
1%
65
30
22
46
IB
34
36
(X)
48
30
78
36
99
52
101
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
IS
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
August 1904
.May 1907
June 1908
January 1910 • • •
January 1912 .......... January 1913
December 1914
.August 1918March 1919
January 1920
July 1921
.May 1923
23
13
24
23
7
13
33
19
12
44
10
22
44
46
43
35
51
W
56
32
36
67
I?
40
July 1924
November 1927 .
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
.October 1926
August 1929
May 1937
. February 1945
.November 1948
July 1953
14
13
43
13
a
11
27
21
50
80
37
45
36
40
64
63
88
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961. . . . .
July 1957
.May 1960
13
9
9
35
25
(X)
^
58
44
34
41
34
93
93
-^
56
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961 .
10 cycles 1919-1961 .
4 cycles, 1945-1961..
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
Average, peacetime cycles;
22 cycles, 1854-1961 .
8 cycles, 1919-1961 . .
3 cycles, 1945-1961 . .
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
40
54
3o
40
34
(X)
U9
54
46
2
3
*46
40
5
Ha
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and I I, and Korean War), the postwar contractions,and
the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
X
3
5
25 cycles, 1857-1960.'
4 cycles, 1945-1960.
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
2
4
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
^ cycles, 1945-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
112
INDEX
Series Finding Guide
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Charts
Tables
Series
Historical
descriptions
data
(issue date) Issue date)
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
U. Gross Notional Product
200 GNP in current dollars ..
!'05
?10
}?15
1U7.
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
9,21,38
9,21,38,56
9
9
9
National income, current dollars
10
Personal income, current dollars
10
Disposable personal income, current dol. . .10
Disposable personal income, constant dol. . 10
Per capita disposable personal income,
current dollars
.... 10
227. Per capita disposable personal income,
10
rnn^tant rlnll;u^
220.
222.
224.
225,
226.
B2. Production, Income, Consumption, Trade
*200. GNP in current dollars
5,64,70 Vuly'68# (July'68#
9,21,38
^July'68# *205. GNP in 1958 dollars
5,64,70,86 ?• and
9,21,3S»56
*47. Industrial production
Jjan. '69
21,38,62
5,64
*52. Personal income
21,38
5,64
53.
Wages,
salaries
in
mining,
mfg.,
constr...
21
5,64
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales
22,38
57. Final sales
22
5,64
*54. Sales of retail stores
22,38
5,64
5,64
5,64
B3. Fixed Capita! Investment
*12 Index of net business formation
23,36
13. New business incorporations
. 23
*6. New orders, durable goods industries
23,36
8. Construction contracts, total value
23
*10. Contracts and orders, plant, equipment, , .23,36
5,64
5,64
3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
230 Total current dollars
231. Total, constant dollars
11
11
11
Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars . 11
Automobiles, current dollars
11
Nondurable goods, current dollars
11
Services, current dollars
11
11.
24.
9,
7.
5,65
5,65
5,65
5,65
5,55
5,65
5,65
96.
97.
*61.
69.
U. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240.
241
242
243
244
245
Gross private domestic investment, total ,. 12
12
Nonresidential fixed investment
12
Nonresidential structures
12
Producers' durable equipment
12
Residential structures *
12,26
Change in business inventories
250 Net exports of goods and services
Fvnnrtc of onnri^ anri sprvirp^
253. Imports of goods and services
5,65
5,65
5,65
5,65
5,65
July '68# July '68#
13,47
13,49
13,49
5,66,82
5,66,82
5,66,82
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
14
14
14,53
14
5,66
5,66
'68
'68
'68
\6. Gov. Purchases, Goods and Services
260.
262.
264.
266.
Federal, State, and local governments
Federal Government
National defense
State and local governments
\7, Final Sales and Inventories
270. Final sales, durable goods
5,66,84
5,66
15
15
5,66
5,66
15
5,66
16
Comoensation of employees
16
Proprietors' income
Rental income of persons
16
Corp. profits and inventory valuation adj . .
16
Net interest
16
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,67
5,67
6,71
6,71
6,71
6,71
6,71
Apr. '68#
Mar. '68
Sep. '68
New capital appropriations, manufacturing 24
New orders, mach. and equip, industries. . 24
Constr. contracts, com. and Indus
24
Private nonfarm housing starts
24
24,36
6,71
6,71
6,72
6,72
'67
'68
May '67
May '68
June '68
Unfilled orders, durable goods industries.
Backlog of capital approp.,manufacturing.
Business expend., new plant and equip ,
Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures
25
25
.25,39,40
6,72
6,72
49.
46
48.
*41.
42.
*43.
45.
40.
*44.
Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
19
Help-wanted advertising
. 19
Man-hours in nonagri. establishments
19
19,38
Employees on nonagri. payrolls
Persons engaged in nonagri. activities . . 19
.
Unemployment rate, total
20,38
20
Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate
Unemployment rate, married males
... 20
Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over . . 20,39
5,67
5,67
'69
'69
'68
7,72,78
Nov.
'68
25
7,72
Sep.
'68#
Sep. '68#
7,73
7,73
7,73
7,73
Dec.
Mar.
Sep.
Mar.
32.
25.
*71.
65.
Vendor performance, slower deliveries. . . 27
Change in unfi 1 led orders, dur. goods
27
Book value, mfg. and trade inventories. . .27,39
Book value, mfrs.' inven., finished goods. 27
7,73
7,73
7,73
7,73
Jan.
Sep.
Jan.
Sep.
28,37
28,37,63
28,37
7,74
28
28
28,37
*23.
*19
*16.
22.
Industrial materials prices
Stock prices 500 common stocks
Corporate profits, after taxes
Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries
15. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
Change in money supply and time deposits
Change in money supply
Change in mortgage debt
Change in consumer installment debt
112 Change in business loans
110 Total private borrowins
39 Delinquency rate installment loans
5,67
5,67
5,67
93 Free reserves
6,68
6,68
6,68
6,68
6,68
Aug.
Mar.
Aug.
Mar.
Aug.
6,68
6,68
6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69
Mar.
'68
'69
'68
'69
'68
Aug. '68
Aug. '68
Aug.
'68
'69
June >68
Aug.
Aug.
Mar.
Mar.
Dec.
Mar.
Mar.
'68#
'68
'69
'69
'67
'69
'69
*Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short fist" of indicators.
Sep. '68
Apr.
Apr.
Sep.
12,26
26,37
26
26
26
116 Corporate bond yields
115 Treasury bond yields
18,36
18,36
18
18
18
Sep . ' 68
'68
'67
'68
Change in bus. inventories, all indus
Change in mfg. and trade inventories
Purchased materials, higher inventories. .
Change in materials, supplies inventories
Buying policy production materials
98.
85
33
*113.
51. Employment and Unemployment
Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
Nonagrl. placements, all industries
Accession rate, manufacturing
Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance. .
Layoff rate, manufacturing"
'68
7,65,73
July '68# July '68#
'68 Feb. '69
'68
'68 Sep. '68
'68
'68
'68
'69
'68
Sep.
Feb.
Sep.
'68
'69
'68
Apr.
Mar.
Apr.
'69
7,74
'69
'68
July '68
7,74
7,74
7,74
July '68
Mar. '69
Nov. '68
July '68
Mar. '69
Nov. »68
7,74
7,74,85
May '68
May '68
7,74
7,74
Dec.
July '68
'68
July '68
Nov. '68
30
30
30
30,37
7,75
7,75
7,75
7,75
Aug. '68
Aug. '68
Mar. '69
Jan. '69
Aug. '68
Aug. '68
30
31
31
31
7,75
7,75
7,75
7,75
Apr. '67
Mar. '68
Feb. '69
Apr. '69
July '64
July '64
32
32
32
32
7,76
7,76
7,76
7,76
Jan.
Apr.
32
33
.33,39
33,39
33
7,76
8,76
8,76
8,76
8,76
Jan. '68
Jan. '69
Apr. '69
Jan. '68
Jan. '68
34
34
34
35
35
35
35
35
6,77
6,77
6,77
6,77
6,77
6,77
6,77
6,77
Jan. '69
Jan. '69
Jan. '69
Jan. '69
Jan. '69
Jan. '69
Jan. '69
Jan. '69
7,74,99
July '68
B6. Money and Credit
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
*1.
*4
2.
5.
3.
'68
Aug.
Sep.
245.
*31.
37.
20.
26
V?. Saving
290. Gross saving, private and government .... 17
292 Personal saving
.......
... 17
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
17
296 Capital consumption allowances
17
298 Government surplus or deficit
17
6,'72
Sep.
Sep.
-68#
68#
'68
'68
'68
'69
'68
f
Sep.
Aug.
Nov.
55. Wholesale prices, indus. commodities ,. , , 29
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods 1 ... 29,55
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
29
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
29,39
\8. National Income Components
280
282
284
286.
288.
6,64,70 July '68# July
6,64,70,86 July '68# July
6,70,98 Dec. '68 Nov.
6,70
July '68 July
6,70
July '68 July
Jan. '69 Feb.
6,70
July '68 July
6,70
Mar. '69
6,70
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
July '68# July '68#
5,66
15
271. Change in business inventories, durable
goods
274. Fi nal sales, nondurable goods
275. Change in business inventories,
nondurable goods
Tables
Series
escriptions
issue date)
B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
5,65,73
V5. Foreign Trade
9^9
Charts
Historical
data
issue date)
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con
\2, National and Personal Income
233.
234.
236.
237.
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," foil owing this index)
Aug. '68#
Aug. '68
........
117. Municipal bond yields
66 Consumer installment debt
*72. Com. and industrial loans outstanding . .
*67 Bank rates on short-term bus loans
118 Mortgage yields residential
B7. Composite Indexes
810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj.. .
820. 5 coincident indicators
830. 6 lagging indicators
813. Marginal employment adjustments
814. Capital investment commitments
815. Inventory investment and purchasing
816. Profitability...
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
'68
'68
June '68
Jan. '68
July '64
July '6*
July '64
July '64
July '64
July '64
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
113
Series Finding Guide-Continued
(See table of contents (page i) for chart aad table titles)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
descriptions
data
(issue date) (issue date)
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
data
descriptioi
(issue date) (issue dat
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS^-Con.
C ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
03. Federal Government Activities-Con.
Cl. Aggregate Series
61
410
412.
414
416.
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Bus exoend new olant and eouip
Manufacturers' sales total
Mfrs ' inventories, book value
Condition of tnfrs ' inventories
Adequacy of manufacturers' capacity
78
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
78
78
78
78
Mar, '69
Nov. '68
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
25,39,40 72,78
78
41
78
41
78
41
a
420. Household income compared to year ago. , 42
425. Probability of change, household income. . 42
430 New csrs purchased by households
42
435 Index of consumer sentiment
42
C2. Diffusion Indexes
0440. New orders, manufacturing
0442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade
0444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade
0446, Number of employees, mfg. and trade
43
43
43
43
79
79
79
79
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
'69
'69
'69
'69
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
b450.
D460.
0462.
D464.
0466.
,44
44
•U
44
44
79
79
79
79
79
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
Peb.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
45
45
45
80
80
80
Feb. '69
Feb. '69
Feb. '69
Level of inventories, mfg. and trade
Selling prices, mfg. and trade
Selling prices, manufacturing
Selling prices, wholesale trade
Selling prices, retail trade
061, Bus. expend., new plant and equip
D480. Freight carloadings
480. Change in freight carloadings
Nov. '68
Nov. '68
Nov. '68
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Dl, Foreign Trade
500 Merchandise trade balance
502 Exports excluding military aid . ,
506. Export orders, durable goods except
motor vehicles
508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery . .
512. General imports
46
46
8,81
8,81
Apr. '67#
Apr. '67#
8,81
8,81
8,81
Aug. '68# Aug.
Apr. '69
Apr. '67#
8,82
Dec. '68 Sep. >6StP
8,82
Dec. '68
82
Dec. '68
82
5,66,82
Dec. '68
Dec. '68
43
530 L ton id liabilities to foreigners
532. Liquid and nonliquid liabilities to foreign
48
official acencies
48
534. U.S. official reserve assets
252 Exoorts of soods and services
13,49
253. Imports of goods and services
13,49
82
536. Merchandise exports, adjusted
537. Merchandise imports, adjusted
540. Investment income, military sales, and
services, exports
541. Foreigner investment income, military
6xoend and services imports
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad*
543. Income on foreign investments in U.S
46
.46
46
'68#
D2. Balance of Payments and Components
520. U.S. balance of payments, liquidity
balance basis
47
522. U.S. balance of payments, official
settlements basis
47
525. Net capita) movements, liquidity balance
basis
47
527. Net capital movements, official settlements
616.
621.
647.
648.
625.
Defense Oept. obligations, total
53
Defense Dept. obligations, procurement. . . 53
New orders, defense products industries . . 53
New orders, defense products
53
Military contract awards in U.S
, 53
D4, Price Movements
781. Consumer price index, ail items .„
782. Consumer price index, food
783. Consumer price index, commodities
784. Consumer price index, services
750.
58.
751.
752.
Wholesale price
Wholesale price
Wholesale price
Wholesale price
54,61
54
54
54
index, all commodities . . *55
index, mfd. goods.
29,55
index, proc. foods, feeds . 55
index, farm products
55
8,84
8,84
8,34
84
8,84
Deo. '67#
Dee. '67#
Sep. '68# Sep. '61
8,85,97
85
85
85
May '68#
8,8§
85,74
3%
85
Aug. '67#
May '68
E, ANALYTICAL MEASURES
El. Actual and Potential GNP
205 Actual GNP in 1958 dollars
9,21,38,56 6,64,70,86 Joly '68$ July •&
86
5,86
206 Potential GNP in 1958 dollars
56
207 GNP gap (potential less actual) ........56
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing , . 57
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. arcd trade, 57
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
durables
57
853, Ratio, prod, of bus. equip, to consumer
goods
57
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable
58
personal income
855, Ratio, nonagricultural job openings
unfilled to persons unemployed
58
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm. 58
856. Real avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers. . 58
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers . 58
857. Vacancy rate, total rental housing
58
8,87
8,87
Apr. '69
Jan. '69
Fob.
8,87
Sep. '68
Sep. '6*
8,87
Doe. '63
Nov. "6
8,37
July '68
July «&
8,37
8,87
8,87
Mar. '6f
Sep. '66
June '68
June »&
June '&
8,87
8,87
June '68
Feb. '68
Dec. '68
Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg ...
New orders, durable goods industries
New capital appropriations, mfg
Profits, manufacturing
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Industrial materials prices
Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance .
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
88,91
88,91
88
89
89,92
89,93
89,93
Sep.
Oct.
Ayg.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
'68
'68
'67
'69
'69
'69
'69
82
82
82
82
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
D41.
047.
D58.
D54.
60
Employees on nonagri. payrolls
60
Industrial production
Wholesale prices, manufactured goods — 60
Sales of retail stores
60
90,94
90,94
90,95
90,96
Sep.
Dee.
Apr.
Apr.
'68
'68
'67
'65
. 49
82
82
Dec. '68
Dec. '68
49
82
Dee.
49
50
50
82
83
83
Dec. '68
Dee. '68
Dec. '68
545.
544.
547.
546.
548.
549.
Payments by U.S. travelers abroad
50
Receipts from foreigners in U.S
50
U.S, military expenditures abroad
50
Military sales to foreigners
50
Receipts, transportation and services .... 50
Payments, transportation and services ... 50
83
83
83
83
83
83
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dee.
Dec.
Dec.
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
54,61
61
61
61
61
61
61
85,97
97
97
97
97
97
97
May >68#
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
Get. '67
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
561.
560.
565.
564.
570.
575,
U.S. direct investments abroad
51
Foreign direct investments in U.S
51
U.S. purchases of foreign securities
51
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
51
Gov. grants and capital transactions
51
Banking and other capital transactions . . 51
.
83
83
83
83
83
83
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dee.
Dec.
Dec.
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
21,38,62
62
62
62
62
62
62
62
70,98
98
98
98
98
98
98
98
Deo.
July
Nov.
Nov.
June
Apr.
Juno
Nov.
'68
'67
'67
'67
' 68
'68
'68
'67
8,84
8,84
8,84
8,66,84
July
July
July
July
'68#
'68#
'68#
'68#
28,37,63
63
63
63
63
63
63
74,99
99
99
99
99
99
99
Mar.
Dot.
Get.
Oct.
Get.
Get.
Oct.
'68
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
basis
*
47
13,47
J
49
'68
'68
'68
'68
Fed. balance,nat'l income and prod. acct. .52
Fed. receipts, nat'l income and prod, acct, 52
Fed. expend., nat'l income and prod. acct. 52
National defense purchases
14,53
'68
*Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
114
Apr. »&
F. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Fl. Consumer Price Indexes
781 . United States
109
Panada
132. United Kingdom
135. West Germany
136
France
138 Japan
137. Italy.
.
F2. Industrial Production Indexes
47. United States
123
122
126.
125.
128
121
127.
03, Federal Government Activities
600.
601.
602.
264.
June '&
Sep. '68# E3. Diffusion Indexes
Dl.
D6.
Oil .
D34.
D19.
D23.
D5.
250 Balance on goods and services
'6<
July
July
July
July
'68#
'68#
'68#
'68#
Canada
United Kingdom
France
West Germany
Japan
OECD European countries
Italy
F3. Stock Price Indexes
19 United States
143 Canada
142 United Kingdom
146. France
145. West Germany
148. Japan
147. Italy
. ,
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
Nov. '&
Titles and Sources of Series
Within each of the six sections, series are Itsted in numerical order.
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. "M" indicates
monthly series; "Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the
whole period except for series designated by "EOM" (end of the
month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter).
The alphabetic-numeric designations following the series titles indicate alt charts and tables in which the series may be found. See the
table of contents for chart and table titles and Series Finding Guide
for page numbers. The series in section B preceded by an asterisk
(*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators, chart
B8. Unless otherwise indicated, all series which require seasonal
adjustment have been adjusted by their source.
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number and
are obtained from the same sources.
244. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential structures
(Q). -• Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)
245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories after valuation adjustment, all industries (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4, B4)
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries
(M). --Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A5, D2)
7. New private nonfarm housing units started (M). -- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(63)
(B3, B8, E3, E4)
252. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants (Q). -• Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A5, 02)
253. Imports of goods and services (Q). - Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A5, D2)
260. Government purchases of goods and services, total (Q). Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
A National Income and Product
200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Alr B2, 88)
205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). - Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Al, B2, B8, El)
210. Implicit price deflator, gross national product (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Al)
215. Per capita gross national product in current dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and
Bureau of the Census
(Al)
217. Per capita gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau
of the Census
(Al)
220. National income in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
222. Personal income in current dollars (Q). -• Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). - Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
225. Disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
226. Per capita disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A3)
231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1958 dollars (Q). •Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A3)
232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
(A6)
262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, total
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A6)
264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
defense (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A6,D3)
266. State and local government purchases of goods and services,
total (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A6)
270. Final sales, durable goods (Q). • Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A7)
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A7)
274. Final sales, nondurable goods (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A7)
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods (Q).., Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A7)
280. Compensation of employees (Q). - Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A8)
282. Proprietors1 income (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A8)
284. Rental income of persons (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(A8)
286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A8)
288. Net interest (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A8)
290. Gross saving -- private saving plus government surplus or
deficit (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A9)
292. Personal saving (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A9)
233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods except
automobiles, in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A3)
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A9)
234. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
296. Capital consumption allowances, corporate and noncorporate
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods, in
current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A3)
298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A9)
237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current
dollars (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
240. Gross private domestic investment, total (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)
241. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)
242. Gross private domestic fixed ii
iidential struc-
(A9)
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings, floor space (M). - McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(B3)
*10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(83, B8)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations (Q).-National Industrial Conference Board (B3,E3)
*12. Index of net business formation (M). - Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau
of Economic Research, Inc.
(03, B8)
13. Number of new business incorporations (M). - Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(B3)
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M). • - D u n and Bradstreet, Inc.
(B6)
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing
corporations (Q). - Federal Trade Commission and Securities
and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
(B5)
*16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q). - Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(B5, 88)
*17. Index of price per unit of labor cost -- ratio, index of
wholesale prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) to
seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees
(sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and
salaries) per unit of output (M). - - Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve. System
(B5, B8)
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M). - Standard and
Poor's Corporation
(B5,88, t3, E4, F3)
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials
and supplies (M). *• Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
the Census
(B4)
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate,
all industries (Q). •• Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B5)
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M). -• Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, B8t E3, E4)
24. Value of manufacturers1 new orders, machinery and equipment
industries ((B). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(83)
(B4)
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (ffl). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, B8, E3, E4)
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).
Bureau of Labor Statistics
8. Index of construction contracts, total value (M). - McGrawHill Information Systems Company.
(Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(B3)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
B Cyclical Indicators
Department of Labor,
(Bl)
tures (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A4)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M). • Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(Bl)
243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, producers' durable
equipment (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A4)
*4. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M). - Department
of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(Bl, 68)
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (HA). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(Bl, E3, E4)
26. Buying policy - production materials, percent of companies
reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M). -- National
Association of Purchasing Management
(84)
*29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building
permits (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3, B8)
"31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census
(B4, B8)
Continued on reverse
115
Titles and Sources of Series
(Continued from page 115)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower
deliveries (M). - Chicago Purchasing Agents Association
(B4)
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions
and life insurance companies (M). •- Institute of Life Insurance, Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal
National Mortgage Association, National Association of
Mutual Savings Banks, U.S. Savings and Loan League, and
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
* adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(86)
37. Percent ol companies reporting higher Inventories of purchased materials (M). •• National Association of Purchasing
Management; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B4)
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and
over (EOM). - American Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc. (Bimonthly since December 1964}
(86)
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M). Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
*41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment
survey (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(81, B8t E3, E4)
42. Total number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities,
labor force survey (M). - Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M). <••> Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(81, B8)
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M). - Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(Bl, B8)
45 Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M). -• Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security(Bl)
46. Index of, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M). -- National
Industrial Conference Board
(Bl)
*47 Index of industrial production (M). « Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B2, B8, B, E4, F2)
48. Man-hours In nonagricultural establishments (M). -- Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl)
49. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled (EOM). •- Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
(81)
*52. Personal income (M). - Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(B2, B8)
53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(82)
*54. Sales of retail stores (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B2, B8, E3.-E4)
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M).-- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5)
*56. Manufacturing and trade sates (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census
(82, B8)
57. Final sales (series 200 minus series 245) (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B2)
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M). - - Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (B5, D4, E3, E4)
*61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
(63, 88, Cl, C2)
*62, Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing -ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages
and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing
(M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B5, 88)
65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book value, all
manufacturing industries (EOM). — Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B4)
66. (Consumer installment debt (COM). - Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain
current figure
(B6)
•67. bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities (Q). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(66, 68)
116
68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product (1958
dollars), nonfinancial corporations - ratio of current-dollar
compensation of employees to gross corporate product in
1958 dollars (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(85)
69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B3)
*71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value (EOM). •Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and
Bureau of the Census
(B4, B8)
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting
large commercial banks (EOM). -- Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
(86, B8)
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B6)
93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) (ffl). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ). National Industrial Conference Board
(83)
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit
markets (Q). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M). -- Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B6)
*113. Net change in consumer installment debt (M). - Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(86, 88)
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M). -- Treasury Department
(B6)
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M). - First
National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department'(B6)
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M). • • The Bond
Buyer
(B6)
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M). - Department
of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration
'(B6)
*200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). See in section A.
*205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A.
245. Change in business inventories. (GNP component) (Q). See
in section A.
810. Twelve leading indicators -- reverse trend adjusted composite
index (includes series 1, 4, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17,19, 23, 29, 31,
and 113) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of tie Census
(87)
813. Marginal employment adjustments -- leading composite index
(includes series 1, 4, and 5) (M). — Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B7)
814. Capital investment commitments - leading composite index
(includes series 6, 10, 12, and 29) (M). -- Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B7)
815. Inventory investment and purchasing - leading composite
index (includes series 23, 25, 31, and 37) (M). - Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B7)
816. Profitability » leading composite index (includes series 16,
17, and 19) (M). •- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B7)
817. Sensitive financial flows - leading composite index (includes
series 33, 85,112, and 113) (M). - Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(87)
820. Five coincident indicators - composite index (includes series
41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B7)
830. Six lagging indicators "composite index (includes series 44,
61, 62, 67, 71, 72) (M). —Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(87)
C Anticipations and Intentions
61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries (Q). See in section B.
410. Manufacturers' sales, total value (Q). » Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
(Cl)
412. Manufacturers' Inventories, total book value (EOQ). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
(Cl)
414. Percent of total book value of inventories held by manufacturers classifying their holdings as high, less percent classifying holdings as low (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(Cl)
416. Percent of total gross capital assets held by companies classifying their existing capacity as inadequate for prospective
operations over the next 12 months, less percent classifying
existing capacity as excessive (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Cl)
420. Current income of households compared to income a year ago
(percent higher, lower, and unchanged) (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Cl)
425. Mean probability (average chances in 100) of substantial
changes (increase, decrease, and increase less decrease) in
income of households (Q). - Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(Cl)
430. Number of new cars purchased by households (Q).-- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Cl)
435. Index of consumer sentiment (Q). • University of Michigan,
Survey Research Center
(Cl)
D440. New orders, manufacturing (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
0446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (Q). •• - Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
0460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
0462. Selling prices, manufacturing (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
0464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D466. Selling prices, retail trade (Q). » Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
0480. Freight carloadings (Q). -• Association of American Railroads
(C2)
480. Change in freigit carloadings (Q). - Association of American
railroads
(C2)
D Other Key Indicators
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M).
section B.
See in
250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants: U.S. balance of payments (Q). - See in
section A.
252. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under military grants; U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- See in section
253. Imports of goods and services:
(Q).--See in section A.
U.S. balance of payments
264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
defense (Q),--See in section A.
500. Merchandise trade balance (Series 502 minus series 512) (M).->
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(01)
502. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
Titles and Sources of Series
561. U.S. direct investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -•
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (DZ)
(Continued from page 116)
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities: U.S. 'balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
506. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except
motor vehicles and parts (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(01)
565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(02)
508. Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery (M), •McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
570. Government grants and capital transactions, net: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(DZ)
512. General imports, total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(01)
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(02)
520. U.S. balance of payments on liquidity balance basis (change in
U.S. official reserve assets and change in liquid liabilities to
all foreigners) (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(02)
600. Federal Government surplus or deficit, national income and
product accounts (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(03)
522. U.S. balance of payments on official settlements basis (change
in U.S. official reserve assets, and change in liquid and
certain nonliquid liabilities to foreign monetary official
agencies) (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
601. Federal Government receipts, national income and product
accounts (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(03)
602. Federal expenditures, national income and product accounts
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
525. Net capital movements (plus unilateral transfers - except
military grants -- and errors and omissions) on liquidity
balance basis: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(02)
527. Net capital movements (plus unilateral transfers -• except
military grants -- and errors and omissions) on official settlements basis: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
530. Liquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to all foreigners,
total outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
532. Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities (excluding military
grants) to foreign official agencies, total outstanding: U.S.
balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(D2)
534. U.S. official reserve (assets) position, excluding military
grants: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). •• Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
(03)
616. Defense Department obligations incurred, total, excluding
military assistance (M). -• Department of Defense, Fiscal
Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
(D3)
621. Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement (M). •Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(D3)
625. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and
institutions (M). -- Department of Defense, Directorate for
Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
(D3)
647. New orders, defense products industries (M). -- Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D3)
(02)
543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(02)
545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). •- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
546. Military sales to foreigners: U.S. balance of payments (Q). Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2)
547. U.S. military expenditures abroad: U.S. balance of payments
{Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
781. Index of consumer prices (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics.
(D4, Fl)
782. Index of consumer prices, food (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
783. Index of consumer prices, commodities less food (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
784. Index of consumer prices, services (M). -• Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
E Analytical Measures
205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A.
206. Potential level of gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -Council of Economic Advisers
(El)
207. Gap -- the potential GNP (series 206) less the actual GNP
(Series205) (Q).-- Council of Economic Advisers
(El)
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing (Q). -• Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce,
and McGraw-Hill Economics Department
(E2)
(02)
851. Ratio, inventories (series 71) to sales (series 56), manufacturing and trade total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(E2)
548. Receipts for transportation and other services: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(02)
852. Ratio, unfitted orders (series 96) to shipments, manufacturers'
durable goods (Nl). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(E2)
549. Payments for transportation and other services: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
560. Foreign direct investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers (with 3 dependents) on private nonagricultural payrolls, 1957-59 dollars (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number
and are obtained from the same sources. See section B for titles
and sources of Dl, D5, D6, Dll, 019, D23, D41, D47, D54, 058, D61,
and section C for D440, 0442, 0444, 0446, 0450, D460, D462, D464,
D466, and D480. Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q). -- First National City Bank
of New York; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(E3)
F International Comparisons
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).
See in section B.
47. United States, index of industrial production (M). See in
section B,
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M) •• Central
Statistical Office (London)
(F2)
752. Index of wholesale prices, farm products (M). -- Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
858. Index of output per man-hour, total private nonfarm (Q). -•
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
750. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities (M). -- Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
537. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
541. Foreigners' investment income, military expenditures and other
services imports: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
857. Vacancy rate in rental housing -- unoccupied rental housing
units as a percent of total rental housing (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(E2)
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
European Countries, index of industrial production (M). •Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(Paris)
(F2)
751. Index of wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
(02)
856. Real average hourly earnings of production workers in manufacturing, 1957-59 dollars (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(E2)
648. New orders, defense products (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(D3)
536. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants: U.S.
balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D2)
540. U.S. investment income, military sales, and other services
exports, excluding military grants: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled (series 49) to
number of persons unemployed (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Employment Security and Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (E2)
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of
consumer goods (M). -- Boatd of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System. (Based upon components of the Federal
Reserve index of industrial production.)
(E2)
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (series
292 divided by series 224) (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(E2)
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M). -- Dominion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F2)
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M). -- Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonal adjustment by
OECD
(F2)
126. France, index of industrial production (M). - - Institut National
dela Statist!queetdes Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(F2)
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M). -- Istituto Centrale di
Statistica(Rome)
(F2)
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M). -- Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(F2)
132. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M). -• Ministry of
Labour (London)
(Fl)
133. Canada, index of consumer prices (M). -- Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa)
(Fl)
135. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M). •• Statist!sches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(Fl)
136. France, index of consumer prices (M). -- Insitut National de la
Statist!queetdes Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(Fl)
137. Italy, index of
Statistica(Rome)
prices (M). •- Istituto Centrale di
138. Japan, index of
Minister (Tokyo)
prices (M). -- Office of the Prime
(Fl)
(Fl)
142. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M). -- The Financial
Times (London)
(F3)
143. Canada, index of stock prices (M). •- Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa)
(F3)
145.West Germany,'index of stock prices (M). -- Statistisches
Bundesamt(Wiesbaden)
(F3)
146. France, index of stock prices (M). -• Institut National de la
Statistiqueetdes Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(F3)
147. Italy, index of stock prices (M). -- Istituto Centrale di Statistica(Rome)
(F3)
148. Japan, index of stock prices (M). -- Tokyo Stock Exchange
(Tokyo)
(F3)
781. United States, index of consumer prices (M). See in section D.
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