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DEVELOPMENTS
April 1988
DATA THROUGH MARCH




S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS

This report was prepared in the Statistical
Analysis Division under the direction of
Julius Shiskin, Chief. Technical staff and
their responsibilities for the publication areFeliks Tamm—Technical supervision and
review,
Barry A. Beckman—Specifications for
computer processing,
Gerald F, Donahoe—Nevs? projects,
Norton Somer—Selection of seasonal
adjustment methods,
Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic data.
Editorial supervision is provided by Qeraldine
Censky of the Administrative and Publications
Services Division,
The cooperation of various government and
private agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies furnishing
data are indicated in the list of series and
sources on the back cover of this report

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

C. R. Smith, Secretary
William H. Chartener, Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
A. Ross Eckler, Director
Robert F. Drury, Deputy Director

JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief Economic Statistician
Subscription price is $7 a year ($1.75 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues are
60 cents.
Airmail delivery is available at an additional
charge. For information about domestic or
foreign airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below),
enclosing a copy of your address label. Make
checks payable to the Superintendent of
Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing
Office, Washington, D.C. 20402, or to any U.S.
Department of Commerce Field Office.

ABOUT THE COVER—Series in this publication
are grouped according to their usual timing
and shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general business
activity. The center panel illustrates this
concept. The vertical bar represents a contraction ; the top curve, the Leading Series which
usually fall before a contraction has begun and
rise before it has ended; the middle curve, the
Coincident Series which usually fall with the
contraction period; the bottom curve, the
Lagging Series which fall after a contraction
has begun and rise after it ends. Series are also
classified by economic process within each
timing group. Processes am indicated in the
squares bordering the panel.

BUSINESS CYCLE
DEVELOPMENTS

PREFACE This report brings together many of the available economic
indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation. The presentation
and classification of series follow the business indicators approach. The list
of indicators and their classification into "leading," "roughly coincident,"
and "lagging" groups are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private, nonprofit research organization which
has been preparing lists of business cycle indicators for more than 40 years.
The business cycle turfing dates are also those designated by NBER. In
addition, all series within each timing group are classified under eight
economic processes (e.g., employment and unemployment; production, income, consumption, and trade; fixed capital investment; etc.). Some special
series included in the list (such as labor costs in manufacturing and the total
of machinery and equipment sales and business construction) have been
constructed by the NBER for purposes of business cycle analysis.
The utilization of the National Bureau list of indicators and their
cyclical turning dates is not to be taken as implying acceptance or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government agency of any
approach to business cycle analysis, nor of the special series compiled
by the National Bureau to facilitate cyclical studies. This report is intended
only to supplement other Department of Commerce reports that provide
information so arranged as to facilitate the analysis of current business
conditions.
The unique features of BCD are the arrangement of data according
to their usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle, the
cross-classification by timing and economic process, and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons that help in
evaluating the current state of the business cycle. In addition, the movements of the series are shown against the background of the expansions and
contractions of the general business cycle so that "leads" and "lags" can be
readily detected and unusual cyclical developments spotted.

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE




About 115 principal series and over 300 components are used in preparing BCD. (This figure includes 19 foreign series in addition to 95 U.S.
series.) Almost all ot the basic data have been published by the source agency.
A complete list of series titles and the sources of data is shown on the back
cover of this report.

April 1968
DATA THROUGH MARCH

DEVELOPMENTS




"""'"°

CONTENTS
New Features and Changes for This Issue
3 Census Projects on Economic Fluctuations
Cross-Classification of Business Indicators by Economic
Process and Cyclical Timing

iii
iv
v

Descriptions and Procedures
Introduction
Background
Timing Classification
Economic Process Classification
Short List of Indicators
Method of Presentation
Concepts and Procedures
References
How to Read Charts

1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
4

Section One—Basic Data
Table 1.
Chart 1A.
Chart IB.
Table 2A.
Table 2B.

Changes Over 4 Latest Months
Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present
Series for International Comparisons From 1948 to Present
Latest Data for Business Cycle Series
Latest Data for International Comparisons

6
9
30
33
46

Section Two—Analytical Measures
Chart 2.
Table 3.
Table 4.

Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present
Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components

51
54
58

For Index—Series Finding Guide, see last pages of issue.

CONTENTS
Continued




Appendixes
Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United
States: 1854 to 1961
Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business
Indicators
Appendix C. Average Changes and Related Measures for Business Cycle
Series
Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle Series
Appendix E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and
Expansion Periods of Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961 _ _ _
Appendix F. Historical Data for Selected Series
_

74
75

Appendix G, Descriptions and Sources of Series

79

65
66
68
73

Index
Series Finding Guide

'.

ii

80

H A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect new
findings of business cycle research and newly available economic series and
to report recent changes made by producing agencies in concept, composition,
comparability, coverage, seasonal adjustment methods, benchmark data, etc.
Such changes may involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in
placement of series in relation to other series, changes in components of
indexes, etc.

Changes in this issue are as follows:
1. As a result of recent shifts in budget concepts,
the quarterly data on cash receipts from the public, cash
payments to the public, and cash surplus or deficit are
no longer available and have, therefore, been dropped
from this report. Instead, the series on Federal Government receipts (series 951) and expenditures (serie$ 952)
on the national income and product accounts basis are now
shown in addition to the Federal surplus or deficit. As
soon as monthly or quarterly time series of several
years1 duration become available on the unified budget
concept, they will be added to this report. Historical
data and descriptions for the two additional series
appear in this issue. (See appendixes F and G.)

'M

M I

2. To assist the users of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS
in interpreting current changes, two new measures have
been added to table 1: (l) The number of consecutive
months that each series has moved in the current direction; and (2) the average number of monthly changes in
the same direction for each series during, in most cases,
the period 1953 through 1967. For further explanation of"
the latter measure, see the footnote for "Average Duration of Run" in appendix C.

Mir

If

3. Appendix F contains historical data for series 5,
30, 38, 61, 114, 128, 951, and 952.
4. Appendix G contains descriptions for series 951
and 952.
5. Note that the "Index—Series Finding Guide" (pages
80 and 81) has been simplified by omitting specific chart,
table, and appendix references. References to the historical data published in previous issues have been
retained.

>>»
The May issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS is scheduled
for release on May 29.




iii

lit

CENSUS
(OJECTS
:onomic
tuations




CENSUS METHOD II ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM. A time series computer
program for measuring and analyzing seasonal, trading-day, cyclical, and
irregular fluctuations and the relations among them. This program is
particularly useful in analyzing economic fluctuations which take place
within a year.

The latest variant, X-ll, has greater generality and scope than any of the
earlier programs. It can adjust quarterly as well as monthly series and series
with negative and positive numbers as well as those with positive numbers
alone. The X-ll version measures and adjusts not only for seasonal variations, but also for trading-day variations. Further, it computes many summary
and analytical measures of the behavior of each series. The program includes
various techniques, such as F tests and variance analysis, for use in extending
the scope of time series studies and is written in a simplified computer language—Fortran IV. The program deck can be purchased from the Census
Bureau at cost.

BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. A monthly report for analyzing economic
fluctuations over a shorf span of years.

This report brings together several hundred monthly and quarterly "economic
indicator" series for the analysis of short-term economic trends and prospects.
These series have been selected, tested, and evaluated, after half a century
of continuing research, as the most useful and reliable for this purpose. The
publication provides not only the basic data, but also various charts and
analytical tables to facilitate such studies. In addition, a time series punchcard file and a diffusion index program are available for those who wish to
carry on further research in business cycle analysis.

LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH. An annual report for the study of
economic fluctuations over a long span of years.

This report has been developed from available statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view of the U.S. economy. It has been planned,
prepared, and published as a basic research document for economists, historians, investors, teachers, and students. It brings together for the first time
under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the complete statistical
basis for a study of long-term economic trends. It is a unique presentation
of the full range of factors required for an understanding of our country's
economic development. Some of the statistical series go back to 1860. A
punchcard file of the time series included in the report is available for
purchase.

IV

Cross-Classification of Business Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
(Minor economic processes and the nunlber of series in each process are shown for each classification. See the index and back cover for series titles)^

^"\
Cyclical
\^
Timing
Economic ^\^
Process
\^
1. EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(14 series)

LEADING INDICATORS
(36 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
(5 series)

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
(25 series)

LAGGING INDICATORS
(11 series)

Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive employment
(3 series)
Comprehensive unemployment
(3 series)

SERIES UNCLASSIFIED
f V CYCLICAL TIMING
(15 series)

Long- duration unemployment
(I series)

Comprehensive production
(3 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive consumption
and trade (3 series)

II. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(8 series)
III. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)

Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment commitments
(8 series)

IV. INVENTORIES AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

Inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)

Backlog of investment
commitments
(2 series)

Investment expenditures
(2 series)

Inventories
(2 series)

V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(11 series)

Sensitive commodity prices
(1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit margins
(4 series)

Comprehensive wholesale prices Unit labor costs
(2 series)
(2 series)

VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
(17 series)

Flows of money and credit
(6 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)

Bank reserves
(I series)
Money market interest
rates
(4 series)

Comprehensive retail
prices (1 series)

Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates on
business loans and mortgages
(2 series)

VII. FOREIGN TRADE
AND PAYMENTS
(6 series)

foreign trade and
payments
(6 series)

VIII. FEDERAL
GOVERNMENT
ACTIVITIES
(9 series)

Federal Government
activities
(8 series)







DESCRIPTIONS
AND

INTRODUCTION

The business cycle is generally described as consisting
of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in
aggregate economic activity—that is, the complex of
activities represented by such concepts as total production, employment, income, consumption, trade, and the
flow of funds. Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many
economists do not consider it inevitable.
The causal relations among various economic
processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative
nature of cyclical forces and explain why expansions
have eventually turned into recessions and recessions
into expansions. Cyclical fluctuations in production
and employment are preceded by fluctuations in measures which relate to future rather than current production—measures such as new orders for durable goods,
formation of new business enterprises, and accessions
to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations in
various economic costs, such as labor costs, interest
rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments, and holdings of inventories and debts.
BACKGROUND

The National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(NBER) has, since 1938, maintained a list of indicators of aggregate economic activity, and has periodically subjected that list to extensive review. The third
revision of the original list was published in March
1967 and in the following month became the basis for
the presentation of U.S. series in BUSINESS CYCLE
DEVELOPMENTS. Previous issues of BCD were
based on the 1960 NBER list.
The revised list of indicators include some new
series, discontinues some of those on the previous list,




and assigns timing classifications to some series formerly unclassified by timing. The method of preparing
the new list, the reasons for adding or dropping series,
and an explanation of the classification system are described in Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions. (See reference 8, page 3.) The three major
features of the new list are the classification of series
by cyclical timing, the classification by economic process, and the short list of indicators.

TIMING CLASSIFICATION

Cyclical timing is the major principle of classification
employed in the new list. Timing at both peaks and
troughs is taken into account in grouping the series
into leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators. These three groups are described as follows:
Leading Indicators—36 series that usually reach
peaks or troughs before those in aggregate economic
activity as measured by the roughly coincident series (see below). One group of these series pertains
to orders and contracts, another to inventory investment, and so on.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—25 series that are
direct measures of aggregate economic activity or
move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial production, and
retail sales.
Lagging Indicators—11 series, such as new plant
and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning points after
they are reached in aggregate economic activity.
In addition, the new list contains a group of 15 series unclassified by cyclical timing. These are series

which have an important role in business cycles but
do not display a consistent timing relation to them.
Also included in BCD, but not on the NBER list,
are (1) a group of series which, although they measure
significant economic relationships, remain unclassified
by cyclical timing and economic process; and (2) indexes of industrial production, consumer prices, and
stock prices for several countries which have important trade relations with the United States.
The historical business cycle turning dates used in
this report are those designated by the NBER. They
mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its cyclical
high or low levels. As a matter of general practice,
neither new reference turning dates nor the shading for
recessions will be entered in BCD until after both the
new reference peak and the new reference trough
bounding the shaded area have been designated. This
policy is followed because of the conceptual and empirical difficulties of designating a current recession
and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading
for a current recession without including part of a new
expansion. (See appendix A for historical peak and
trough dates.)

ECONOMIC PROCESS CLASSIFICATION

A secondary principle of classification, economic process, supplements the timing classification. Series are
cross-classified according to both principles. Eight
major economic process categories are used: (I) Employment and Unemployment, 14 series; (II) Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade, 8 series; (III)
Fixed Capital Investment, 14 series; (IV) Inventories
and Inventory Investment, 9 series; (V) Prices, Costs,
and Profits, 11 series; (VI) Money and Credit, 17 series; (VII) Foreign Trade and Payments, 6 series;
and (VIII) Federal Government Activities, 8 series.
Most of these major categories are subdivided into
minor economic processes that exhibit rather distinct
differences in cyclical timing.

SHORT LIST OF INDICATORS

A she., i, substantially unduplicated list of principal
indicators provides a convenient way to summarize
the current situation and outlook. Thus, a short list of
25 indicators, taken from the full list, has been designated by the NBER. This list includes 12 leading,
seven roughly coincident, and six lagging indicators;




21 series are monthly and four are quarterly. These
series are identified by asterisks throughout the report.

METHOD OF PRESENTATION

This report consists of two major sections:
Basic Data (chart 1, tables land 2).—Data for all
series are shown for the current and prior periods
in both graphic and tabular form. Thus, a broad
view of past and current business cycle fluctuations
is provided.
Analytical Measures (chart 2, tables 3 and 4).—
Measures are presented which help to determine
the magnitude and scope of% current changes in different processes, industries, and areas, and aid in
evaluating the prospects of a turning point in the
business cycle.
A list of titles and sources for all series is shown on
the back cover of this report. The series numbers are
for identification only; they do not reflect series relationships or order. The index (Series Finding Guide),
which appears at the end of this report, is helpful for
locating specific series throughout the various charts,
tables, and appendixes.

CONCEPTS AND PROCEDURES

Several other concepts and procedures used in this
report are summarized below:
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are
often necessary to bring out the underlying cyclical
trends of a series. In most cases, the seasonally adjusted
data used for a series are the official figures released
by the source agency. In addition, for the special purposes of business cycle studies, a number of series
that are not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted
form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this
report. The seasonal adjustment process usually accounts for variations due to holidays; however, there
are some cases in which a separate holiday adjustment
is needed for holidays with variable dates.
Months for cyclical dominance (MCD) is an estimate
of the appropriate span over which to observe the
cyclical movements in a monthly series. MCD moving
averages are shown in chart 1 for series with an MCD
of "5" or more; however, to provide an indication of
the variation about these moving averages, monthly
data are also plotted.

Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures
which express the percentage of the components of an
aggregate series rising over given time spans. Their
turning points tend to lead those of the aggregate.
Series numbers preceded by "D" designate diffusion
indexes. Many of the component series used to make
up the diffusion indexes are shown in table 4.

(5)

Gordon, R. A. "Alternative Approaches to
Forecasting: The Recent Work of the National Bureau," The Review of Economics
and Statistics, vol. XLIV, No. 3 (August
(1962), pp. 284-291.

(6)

Lempert, Leonard H. "Leading Indicators,"
How Business Economists Forecast (William
F. Butler and Robert A. Kavesh, Ed.) pt. I,
ch. 2, pp. 31-47. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.:
Prentice-Hall, 1966.

(7)

Moore, Geoffrey H., Editor, Business Cycle
Indicators. New York: National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc., 1961.

(8)

Moore, Geoffrey H. and Shiskin, Julius. Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions, Occasional Paper 103. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
1967.

(9)

Morris, Frank E. "The Predictive Value of
the National Bureau's Leading Indicators,"
Business Cycle Indicators, vol. I, ch. 4, pp.
110-119. New York: National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc., 1961.

During the current expansion, high values for the
indicators are identified in table 2. These values are
not necessarily cyclical peak values, but are simply the
highest values reached to date.
Certain appendix materials are presented regularly
in this report. These materials include historical data,
adjustment factors, peak and trough dates, and other
information helpful in interpreting trends in the
indicators.
REFERENCES

More comprehensive explanations of the use of indicators of aggregate economic activity in analyzing current
business conditions and prospects may be found in the
following references:
(1)

(2)

Alexander, Sidney S. "Rate of Change Approaches to Forecasting—Diffusion Indexes
and First Differences," The Economic Journal,
June 1958, pp. 288-301.
Broida, Arthur L. "Diffusion Indexes,"
American Statistician, vol. IX, No. 2 (June
1955), pp. 7-16.

(10) Okun, Arthur M. "On the Appraisal of Cyclical Turning Point Predictors," Journal of
Business, April 1960, pp. 101-120.

(3)

Burns, Arthur F. and Mitchell, Wesley C.
Measuring Business Cycles. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
1946.

(11) Shiskin, Julius. Business Cycle Indicators:
The Known and the Unknown. Paper presented at the 34th session of the International
Statistical Institute, Ottawa, Canada, August
24, 1963. Washington: Bureau of the Census,
1963.

(4)

Daly, D. J. and White, D. A. "Economic Indicators in the 1960's," Proceedings of the
Business and Economics Statistics Section,
American Statistical Association, August
1966, pt. V, pp. 64-75.

(12) Shiskin, Julius. Signals of Recession and Recovery, Occasional Paper 77. New York:
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
1961.




HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of
expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated
by NBER.

CHART 1 - Series

Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of
recession and beginning of Expansion as designated by NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
CT= March)

Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series
relationships or order. Series are
arranged in charts and tables according to their classification by
timing and economic process.

Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted.
("II" = second quarter)

Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly figures
or MCD moving averages.*)

Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.

Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions,
extreme values, etc.).

40

Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.

Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.

Broken line indicates monthly data
over 1-month spans.

Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
spans.

* Many of the more irregular series are
shown in terms of their MCD moving
averages as well as their actual monthly
data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term
moving averages are plotted IVz, 2, or
2Vz months, respectively, behind the
actual data. See appendix C for a description of MCD moving averages.

Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
' series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic
scale with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic
scale with 2 cycles in that distance,
etc. The scales should be carefully
noted because they show whether
or not the plotted lines for various
series are directly comparable.
t

CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes
Scale shows percent of components
rising.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used in
.computing the indexes. ("2" =
February)

Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used in
computing the indexes. n\T =
fourth quarter)

Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
intervals. This line is also used to
indicate anticipated quarterly data.

HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
To locate a series in BCD, consult the Index—Series Finding Guide in the back of the book where series are arranged into eight groups
by economic process and cross referenced by timing classification in the first column. The back cover, which lists series titles (followed
by a Roman numeral denoting economic process group) and sources in numerical order within each timing group, may also be helpful to
some readers.




Section ONE

DATA
charts and tables
LEADING INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Fixed capital investment
Inventories and inventory investment

v
Prices, cosfs, and profits

Money and credit
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT

INDICATORS

Employment and unemployment

Production, income, consumpfi'on, and frade
Fixed capital investment
Prices, cosfs, and profits
Money and credit
LAGGING INDICATORS
Employment and

unemployment

Fixed capital investment
Inventories and inventory investment
Prices, cosfs, and profits
Money and credit
SERIES UNCLASSIflED

BY CYCUCAL

TIMING

Prices, cosfs, and profits
Foreign trade and payments
Federal Government activities
Also SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCUCAL TIMING AND ECONOMIC PROCESS and INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS (indexes of industrial production, consumer prices, and stock prices
for selected foreign countries)



Table 1

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

|

CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS

COMPARATIVE MEASURES
Average percent change I 2
Mar. '67
to date
(with
sign)3

Duration
(months)

Percent change 2

Basic data 8

CurMar. '67 1953 to
to date
1967 Aver- rent
(without (without age6 direcsign)4 sign)4 5
tion 7

Unit of
measure

Jan.
1968

Feb.
1968

Dec. '67
to
Jan.
1968

Mar.
1968

Jan.
to
Feb.
1968

Feb.
to
Mar.
1968

Series number

Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)

CURRENT PERFORMANCE

LEADING INDICATORS
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Marginal Employment Adjustments:
*L Avgo workweek production workers, mfg. .
*30 Nonagri placements all industries
2. Accession rate manufacturing
5o Avgo weekly initial claims, State 2
unemployment insurance (inverted )
3 Layoff rate manufacturing (inverted2)
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*38- Index of net business formation
13 New business incoroorations
New Investment Commitments:
*6 New orders durable goods industries
94. Construction contracts value
*10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment 9
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing . . .
24o New orders mach and equip, industries
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial buildings.
*29 New building permits private housing
IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
21. Change in business inventories, all
industries9 10
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories10
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inventories
of materials and supplies
..
..
26o Buying policy, prod, materials, commitments
60 days or longer (u)
•.
32* Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries @
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods
industries 10
....
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23 Industrial materials prices®
Stock Prices:
*19 Stock prices 500 common stocks (y)
Profits and Profit Margins:
*16. Corporate profits after taxes9
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate all industries
18. Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing 9
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing . .
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Flows of Money and Credit:
98. Change in money supply and time deposits10 . .
85o Change in U.S, money supply10
33. Change in mortgage debt
113 Change in consumer installment debt 10
112 Change in business loans 10
110 Total private borrowing9
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted2)
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans,
3(1 davs and over (inverted2^




Hours

0.4
2.9
3.7

0.5
2.1
4.6

2.2
2.0
2.2

2
1
2

Per 100 employ. . .

r4.5

6.7

5.3
9.4

1.7
2.1

2
1

Per 100 employ. . .

rl.4

1.1
3.9

0.8
2.5

2.9
1.8

1
1

1957-59=100 ....
Number

3.6

+0.7

3.4
5.9
3.8
2.4
3.4

6.4
4.6
9.3
4.1

1.8
1.6
1.8
9.2
1.9

2
1
1
3
1

+1.6
+3.0
+3.7

5.9
7.6
7.5

8.5
7.2
3.9

1.5
1.6
1.9

r24.77
Bil dollars
1957-59=100 ....
159
r5.90
Bil dollars ....
do
do
r4.87
Mil. sq. ft.
1 floor space
64,51
1 Ann- rate, thous . . rl,43Q
2 1957 59~100
97.2

-0.8

5.2

2.6

5.3

3

Ann. rate, bit. dol. .

-0.1

5.8

3.8

1.5

2

do
Percent • • •

+0.1

0.0
+1.0
+2.2
+1.2

+0.9
+1.0

+1.7
+1.6
+0.8
-0.1

'

12.1

40.2

498
214

2.4

0.0

1.3

1.5

1.6

1

Ann. rate, bil. dol. .

-0.4

3.9

5.0

1.8

1

Percent

3.1

1

1.7

2

Bil dollars

+1.4

+3.1
+0.21

5.7
0.85

7.4
0.50

479
P4.5

199

P40.7
P494
(MA)

188

do

0.0

+3.1
(NA)

*1
*30
2

5
3

-1.2
+4.0
+2.3

+1.2
-3.8

-8.1

0.0

(NA)

-27.3

+7.0
+7.1

+5.5
(NA)

114,5
18,014

(NA)
(NA)

-0.3
-5.2

+0.9
+4.6

(NA)
(NA)

r24. 82

p26.64
176
P5.96

-6.5
-4.2
+2.4

+0.2

+7.3

+12.8

P4.67

+0.8

-1.9
-4.1
(NA)
-7.0

+3.1

*6
94
*10
11
24

-4.8
+4.3

+8.5
-3.2
+0.2

9
7
*29

Pl.3

156
r5.66
(NA)

r4.53

61.39
rl,491
r!20.0

66.61
+0.7
pl»444 +15.8
p!20.2 -16,7

p+3.9

+23.5

+5.3

p+2.7

55

53

r+0.3

p-0.9

61

64

50

55

54

+4.2

r-0,46

r+0,15

p+1.50

-1.66

(NA)

52
(NA)

< *38
13

21

-5.3

r+7.2

64

6.5

2

•6.8

113.5
17,223

40.7

-9.7

-4.5

(NA)

*31

+1,9

-3.6

-1.9

37

+0.3

-1.2

(NA)

20

-4.7

+4.9

26

+10.0

-1.8

32

+0.61 +1.35

25

0.0

0.7

1.3

2.6

1

1957-59-100

99.8

99,5

100 .1

-0.3

-0.3

+0.6

*23

1.9

2.5

2.4

3

1941 43 10

95.04

90.75

69,09

-0.3

-4.5

-1.8

*19

+2.6

2.6

5.2

9.2

6

Ann. rate, bil. dol. .

(NA)

(NA)

*16

+0.6

2.3
2.8
0.5

4.1
5.6
0.6

7.6
7.9
2.5

3
3
1

Percent
Cents
1957-59=100 ....

(MA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)
-0.8

22
18
*17

-0.2

0.0

-0.3
-0.1

-0.57
-0.44

+0.66
+0.33
-0.23
+6.3

-2.9
+4.3

3.53
5.82
2.47
0.84
8.17

6.3
22.2

6.4

2 Ann. rate, percent .
1
do
1 Ann.rate,bil.dol. .
2
do
1
do
12 Ann. rate, mil. doL.

2.77
11.0

1.5
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.6
6.7

19.6

1.5

3

Mil. dollars

5.2

2

Percent

2.49
2.89
1.34
0.86

2.7

r99.6

r98,8

2H.3.GO
is-6.60
+18.49
+4.78
+12.53

r+4.20
rO.OO
P-KL9.20
+6.79
-2.28

1>99.2

81.06
1,51

+0.4

p+8.16 -2.28 +1.20 +3.96
98
p+5.88 +4.56 -6,60 +5.88
85
(NA)
(NA)
-1.38 +0.71
33
(NA)
+0.18 +2.01
(NA)
*113
p+4,07 +4.14 -14.81 +6.35 112

110

(NA)

(NA)

116.62

-0.9

80.46

+39,4 +30.5

+13.2

+0.7

14
39

Table 1

bed

BASIC DATA
APRIL 1968

CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS-Continued

COMPARATIVE MEASURES
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)

Average percent change Mar. '67
to date
(with
sign)3

Mar. '67
to date
(without
sign)4

CURRENT PERFORMANCE

Duration
(months)

Percent change 2

Basic data8

1953 to
Cur1967 Aver- rent
6
(without age direcsign)45
tion?

Unit of
measure

Jan.
1968

Dec. '67
to
Jan.
1968

Mar.
1968

Feb.
1968

Jan.
to
Feb.
1968

Feb.
to
Mar.
1968

Series number

1 2

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Job Vacancies:
301 NonagrL job openings unfilled
46 Helo~ wanted advertising
Comprehensive* Employment:

Thousands
1957-59 100

II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
Comprehensive Production:
49 GNP in current dollars?
*50 GNP in 1958 dollars 9
*47. Industrial production
Comprehensive Income:
*52 Personal income
53 Wages salaries in mining mfg constr
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
*816 Manufacturing and trade sales

2.3
2.7

3.1 3.7
3.0 3.0

+0.2

*41 Employees in nonagrL establishments
42* Total nonagricultural employment
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43 Unemployment rate total (inverted2 )
45o Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate,
State (inverted2)
40. Unemployment rate, married males (inverted2) . .

+0.2
+0.8

+0.3
+0.2

0.6
0.3
0.3

0.4
0.3
0.4

2.8
4.9
2.2

1 man-hours
6 Thousands
2
do

+0.1

4.1

3.8

2.7

1 Percent

3
2

r356
184

360
r!93

p201

+3.2
-3.2

+1.1
+4.9

+2.2
+4.1

301
46

-0.8

+1.7

-0.3

+0.9
+0.6

-0.1
+0.2
+0.3

511
*41
42

+5.4

-5.7

+2.7

*43

+4.3

0.0

45
40

+0.4

49
*50
*47

+1.0
+0.2

*52
53

Ann, rate, biL

+1.3
+0.3

4.0
4.2

4.2
5.9

+1.9
+1.1

1.9
1.1
0.6

1.5
1.2
1.0

0.7
0.7

0.5
0.8

5.0
3.4

r!35.25
r67,712
71,604

p!35.14
p67,855
71,888

3.5

do
do

1
2

r!33.05
r67,137
71,164

3.7

3.6

2.3
1.6

2.3
1.7

2.2
1.7

pl62.1

-61 5

+2.5
+1.5
+0.2

P666.0

+0.2
-0.1

+1.3

(NA)
r92,888 p93,06l
Mil. dollars
Ann. rate, bil. dol.
P823.4
r27,065 r 27, 482 p28,009
Mil dollars

+0.5

+0.2
+3.2

(NA)

+2.2

+1.5

+1.9

*816
57
*54

p80,79

-0.6

+0.2

+1.9
(NA)

96
97

3.5

161 '.2

p827.3
p689.7
rl6l.5

5.3
2.9

29
2

Ann. rate, bil. dol.
do

650.9
170.3

r659.3
r!73.9

+0.7

1.0
2.1
1.2

1.0 2.3
1.4 34.8
0.9 2.2

4
120
5

Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96 Unfilled orders durable goods industries . . .
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg. X1

+0.7
+0.6

0.8
0.9

1.4 5.7
5.4 12.4

2
6

V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55 Wholesale prices industrial commod ©
58 Wholesale prices manufactured goods ©

+0.2
+0.2

0.2
0.2

0.2
0.2

4.1
3.3

95

93

2.1

2

5.6
2.6
2.5
2.8

6.4
1.8
1.7

1 Percent
1
1

2.5'

2.6
2.7
2.8
2.6

0.0

6.3

4.1

+1.3

1.9

3.1 17.4

+0.5

1.7

1.8

1.9

+0.3

0.4

0.5

6.8

+0./

0.7

0.6

3.6

+0.3

+0.7
+0.6

+0.6
+2.1

0.0
-6.2

Ann. rate, bil. doL
do
1957-59-100 ....

19.3
10.2

0.0

-4.5
+5.9

87
12
2

*54 Sales of retail stores

P368

p!74.3

+2.1

III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

Bil. dollars
do

r79.H

r79.29

(NA)

108.3
r!08.6

108.6
108.9

+0.4
+0.5

+0.5
+0.5

+0.3
+0.3

55
58

+144

iH-32

P-310

-37

+1
12

+342

93

5.08

45 1957-59-100
1
1
do

4.97
6.57
5.16
4.31

5.14
6.80
5.39
4.54

+1.4
-5.2
-3.4
-3.2

-2.2

+3.4
+3.5
+4.5
+5.3

114
116
115
117

r!07.8
108.1

VI. MONEY AND CREDIT

Bank Reserves:
93 Free reserves "^(inverted2) (u)
Money Market Interest Rates:
114 Treasury bill rate 61)
116 Corporate bQnd yields ©

+46
+1.8
+1.7
+1.6
+2.1

Mil. dollars

do
do
do

. 6.57
5.18
4.29

0.0
-0.4
+0.5

LAGGING INDICATORS
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Long-Duration Unemployment:
*502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
15 weeks and over (inverted2)
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Investment Expenditures:
*61. Bus. expenditures, new plant and equip.9
505. Machinery and equipment sales and
hircinp^^ rnn^trnrti nn pxnpnrtitnrp?

IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
Inventories:
*71 Book value mfg and trade inventories
65. Book value, mfrs.' inventories of
finished goods



0.0

17

6

0.6

Percent

Ann. rate, bil. dol.

0.6

0.6

0.0

a64.80

0.0

0.0 *502

*61

+3.3

r73.!8

p72.A3

(MA)

+1.3

-1.0

(NA)

50!

Bil. dollars

rl41.34

P141.57

(NA)

+0.4

+0.2

(NA)

*7

do

r27.70

p27.88

(NA)

+1.2

+0.6

(NA)

do

4

61

Table 1

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

bed
|

CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS-Continued

COMPARATIVE MEASURES

Mar. '67
to date
(with
sign) 3

2

Duration
(months)

Basic data 8

Mar. '67 1953 to
Curto date
1967 Aver- rent
6
(without (without age direc45
tion7
sign)4 sign)

Unit of
measure

Percent change 2

Jan.
1968

Feb.
1968

Mar.
1968

Dec. '67
to
Jan.
1968

Jan.
to
Feb.
1968

Feb.
to
Mar.
1968

Series number

Average percent change1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)

CURRENT PERFORMANCE

LAGGING INDICATORS-Contmued
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

Unit Labor Costs:
68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross
product (1958 dol ) nonfin. corp
*62 Labor cost per unit of output mfg
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Outstanding Debt:
66 Consumer installment debt
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding. . .
Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages:
*67 Bank rates on short-term bus loans' (u) ....
118 Mortgage yields residential (u)

+0.7
+0.3

0.7
0.5

0.9 9.2
0.6 2.5

24 Dollars
1 1957-59=100....

r!08.5

r!09.9

p!09.8

+0.4
+0.6

0.4
1.1

0.8 13.5
1,0 3.7

81 Mil dollars
1
do

77,287
65,516

77,853
65,450

65,789

+1.0
+0.6

2.5
0.8

2.2 7.9
0.6 10.6

6 Percent
1
do

+0.3

0.3

0.2

(HA)

(MA)

6.a

6,36
6.78

6,83

118.6

119.0

119.5

+r.3

(HA)
+1.3

-0.1

•68
*62

+0.5
+1,0

+0.7
-0,1

(HA)
40.5

66
*72

+6.7
-0,4

4-0.7 118

+0.3

4-0,4

o.'o

*67

SERIES UN CLASSIFIED BY
CYCLICAL TIMING
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

Comprehensive Retail Prices:
8L Consumer prices @

4.2

31

1957-59=100....

VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
89. U.S. balance of payments: 9 10
a. Liquidity balance basis
.....*
b. Official settlements basis
10
88. Merchandise trade balance
86* Exports excluding military aid
861. Export orders durabias exc. mot. velL©
862. Export orders nonelectrical machinery
87. General imports

-439
+204
-42.2
-0.1
+2.1
+0.8
+1.5

439
1,311
105.9
4.9
14.1
8.2
3.0

VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
95. Federal surplus (+) or deficit (-), nat'l.
income and prod, accts 9 *.
951. Fed. receipts, nat'l, income and product accts!.
952. Fed. expenditures, nat'l, income and product9. .
101. National defense purchases, current dollars9. . .
9L Defense Dept obligations, total
90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement
99^ New orders, defense products industries
92. Military contract awards in U.S

+0.4
+1.8
+2.1
+2.2
+2.4
+6.8
+7.0
+2.3

2.3
2.3
2.1
2.2
10.1
22.7
19.7
10.0

-0.9
-0.3

1.0
0.9

2.2 8.7
1.0 2.8

0.0

2.3

2.0

2.0

-0.4

1.1

0.9

2.. 8

-1.5

7.3

8.5

4.7

+0.3
+0.2
-5.2

4.5
0.2
6.2

5.5
0.4
3.8

3.3
2.4
6.3

1
do
5 1957-59=100 ....
3 Percent

+0,3

81
89

308 5.1 18 Mil. dollars
a
CM)
(HA)
b
do
(»A)
3
573 5.6
(HA)
57.7 1.6
1
+171.2
+169.3
do
-157.7 4-9CU2 +1,9 -328,9 88
do
3.6 1.8
2,734.7 2,773.1 2,454.7
2
86
+6.9
-0.4 -11.5
12.6 1.4 1
do
r877
(HA)
p989
861
-19.2 4-12,8
(Mi)
6.4 1.6 1 1957-59=100....
p26G
862
(MA)
215
-15.7 4-20.9
(HA)
2.9 1.8 1 Mil. dollars
2,615.4 2,601.9 2,612.4 +3.6
-0.5
4-0.4 87

2.6
2.5
2.1
2.3
13.6
26.2
21.4
20.9

6.7
10.4
11.8

8.3
1.4
1.4
1.6
1.5

6
6
39
36
2
2
2
1

Ann. rate, bil. dol.
do
do
do
Mil. dollars
do
Bil. dollars
Mil dollars .

(HA)
(HA)

95
951
952
101
4-3.2
91
(HA)
+8.3
90
(HA)
4-21.4
4-12.3 +49.5 99
(HA)
4-19.3
92
(HA)
(HA)
+4*1

7,033
2,360
r3.33
2,887

p!74.8
p?6,6
7,615
2,865
1-3.74
3,445

1 Percent
4 Ratio . .

rl.52

p84.1
pi. 52

(HA)

1

do

r3.53

r3.58

P3.57

2

1957-59=100 ....

r!21,l

r!20.4

P119.5

3

Ratio

+ 11
1 .
+27.8
p5*59 -16*1
CM) -17.0
(HA)
(HA)

SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL
TIMING AND ECONOMIC PROCESS

850. Ratio, output to capacity, mfg. 9.
851. Ratio inventories to sales mfg. trade
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods
853. Ratio, production of business equipment
to consumer goods
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable
personal income^.
855. Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfilled
to persons unemployed
856. Ratio, avg. earnings to consumer prices
857 Vacancy rate total rental housing9®

0,0

(HA)

850
851

-3.0

4-1.4

-0.3

852

+0.9

-0.6

-0.7

853

-0.4

0.0

-9.3

pO.068
rO,129
rll7.Q

0.122
117.0
(HA)

pO.129
pl!7.3

+8.4
+0.7

854

-5.4

4-5.7 855
4-0.3 856

0.0
(M)

857

*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. ©Not seasonally adjusted.
NA=not available;
r=revised;
preliminary;
e=estimated;
a=anticipated.
1
2
Average percent changes are based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) percent changes for the specified periods.
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those
series that usually fall when general business activity rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3,5,14, 39,40, 43,
3
45,93, and 502). Percent changes are computed in the usual way but the signs are reversed. See footnote 10 for other "change" qualifications,
Average computed with regard to sign.
^Average computed without regard to sign. 5The period varies among the series; however, for most series, the period covered is 1953-67.
Average number of consecutive monthly changes
in the same direction (see the explanation for "the Average Duration of Run" in appendix C).
Duration of the current direction of change (see the sign of the latest entry in "Current percent
change" columns) measured in months. When there is no change between two consecutive values the direction is assumed to be the same as that of the preceding period.
^Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by ®, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. See additional basic data and notes in table 2.
Quarterly series; figures are placed in
the middle month of quarter. ^Since basic data for this series are expressed in plus or minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed in the same
sic
Figures are placed ini Ithe last month of quarter.
unit of measure as the basic data, rather than in percentages.




Chart 1A

bed

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT
Leading Indicators
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

State

(thous.-inverted scale)

j
1948

49

50

See 'How
 to Read Charts


51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk ( * ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 33.

65

66

67

1968

Chart 1A

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948
Leading Indicators-Continued
ffl.

bed

to PRESENT-Continued

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

[Nov.] (Oct.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.
P T

13. Bibus. incorporations IthousJ

1948

49

51

52

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page -4. Asterisk ( * ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on pages 33 and 34.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
10
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

66

67

1968

Chart 1A

bed

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators -Continued
HE. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT- Continued

P

(July) (Apr.)

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Oct.)

T

P

(May) (Feb.)

T

P

T

permits, private
its (Mix: 1957-59=100)

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

67 1968

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk (*] identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 34.




11

Chart 1A

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
EC. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P

(July) (Aug.)

T

P

[July) (Apr.)

T

P

(May) (Feb.)

T

P

fg. and trade inventories

in book v
rate, bil.

37. Purchased

T

percent of

reporting higher inventories

Inventories of materials and
moving avg.-6-term]

mils., percent of companies
itments 61 days or longer

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page4. Asterisk [ * ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 35.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
12
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

65

66

67

1968

Chart 1A

bed

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
BL. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY IN VEST ME NT-Continued

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

[Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

3L. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

1968

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk ( * ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on pages 35 and 36.




13

Chart 1A

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P

1948

(July)

T

49

P

50

51

52

53

(Aug.)

(July) (Apr.)

T

54

P

55

56

57

(May) (Feb.)

T

P

58 ^ 59

60

T

61

62

63

64

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk (*) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 36.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
14
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

65

66

67

1968

Chart 1A

bed

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
SI. MONEY AND CREDIT

(July) (Aug.)

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

1948

49

50

P

51

52

53

54

(July) (Apr.)
P T

T

55

56

57

58

(May) (Feb.
P T

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

1968

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk (*) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 37.




15

Chart 1A

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT -Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
. MONEY AND CREDIT -Continued

(Nov.) (Oct.
P
T

, m days and over,
(percent-inverted scale)

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4, Current data for these series are shown on page 37.


16


60

61

63

64

65

66

67 1968

Chart 1A

bed

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
(July) (Aug.)

(July) (Apr.)
P T

0

(May) (Feb.)
P T

*41. Employees In nonagri.
establishments (millions]

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

67

1968

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page4. Asterisk ( ' ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 38.




17

Chart 1A

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued

bed

Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
I EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued
.

3456712345 61 23 4-

I.

PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE

P to lisa dollars, Q
. rate, fall. dot. 1

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk ( ' ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on pages 38 and 39.


18


66

67

1968

bed

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
H. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE-Continued
[Nov.j (Oct.)
P

1948

(July) (Aug.)

T

49

P

50

51

52

53

(July) (Apr.)

T

54

P

55

56

57

(May) (Feb.

T

58

P

59

60

T

61

62

63

64

65

67

1968

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk (*) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 39.




19

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
IE .FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.
P T

-2
*

, dtir. goods indus. ffcil, do I.)

of eap. appropriates, wfg, a ML dor.

I PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
.

55. Wholesale pr

Index: 1957-59=100]

58. Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 40.

20



60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

1968

Chart 1A

bed

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued g
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
. MONEY AND CREDIT

(July) (Apr.)

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Oct.)

P

(May) (Feb.

T

P

T

0-

6-

5-

4-

3-

6-

5-

46-

5-

4-

3-

4-

2-1
1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

65

66

67

1968

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 40.




21

Chart 1A

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Lagging
I.

Indicators

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
[July!

P

T

T

(May) (Feb.
P T

(July) (Apr.)

[Aug.)

P

(Nov.) (Oct.)

P

T

HE. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

90.
8070605040908070^||05. Mach. and ftquip sates and bos, constr

6050-

-J

40-1

EC. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

160140-

*71.

rade inventories (bil. del

lvalue, mfg.

120

100-

80
3065. Book value of mfrs.' lnveiiti|||T finished pods fbil. tint.

2520-

15-

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page4. Asterisk (') identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 41.


22


65

66

67 1968

Chart 1A

bed

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Lagging Indicators-Continued
3C. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

(Nov.] (Oct.
P
T

(May) (Feb.
P T

cost per unit of output,
(index: 1957-59=100)

^A

2L MONEY AND CREDIT

Consumer installment debt (bil. do I.)

Com. and
reporting

ans outstanding, weekly
em banks (bil. dol.

Bank rates m short-term
bus. loans, Q (percent)

ields, residential (percent)

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

1968

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk ( * ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 42.




23

Chart 1A

BASIC DATA

bed

APRIL 1968

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing
3C .PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

(Nov.) (Oct.]
P

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

T

(May) (Feb.)
P

T

5ZE. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS

b. Official settlements basis

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 43.


24


60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

1968

Chart 1A

bed

APRIL

BASIC DATA

1968

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing-Continued

SH. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

moving avg -6-term)

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

64

65

66

67

1968

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 43.




25

Chart 1A

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

bed

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued

Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing-Continued
VTTT

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

i'Nov,) (Oct.)
P I

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

40 -

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

37

58

59

: s How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 44.

Digitized for 26
FRASER


60

81

82

83

84

65

86

67

1968

bed

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing-Continued

3QH. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES-Continued

[Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

80
70
60
50

&

40309
8
7

5-

3J
3-1

6-j
5«j

4

1

,J

81
5r
4«

1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
$88 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for tnese series are shown on page 44.




64

65

66

67

1968

27

Chart 1A

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948

to PRESENT-Continued

bed

Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing and Economic Process

1943

49

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Oct.;
P
T

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2', page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 45.

28



(May) (Feb.;
P T

64

65

66

67

1968

Chart 1A

APRIL1968

BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing and Economic Process-Continued
(July) (Aug.;
P
T

(Nov.) (Oct.)

P

T

(July) (Apr.;
P T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

.22

job openings unfilled to
of persons unemployed

i total rental housing, Q [percent)

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

67

1968

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2', page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 45.




29

Chart IB

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
FROM 1948 to PRESENT

Industrial Production Indexes
(1957-59=100)

121. OECD European countries

1948

49

50

51

52

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4.


30


53

54

55

56

57

58

59

Current data for these series are shown on page 46.

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

1968

Chart IB

bed

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS |
FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued

Consumer Price Indexes
(1957-59=100)

1948

49

50

51

52

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4.




53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67 1968

Current data for these series are shown on page 47.

31

Chart IB

BASIC DATA

bed

APRIL 1968

SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued

Stock Price indexes
(1957-59=100)
160120-

120-1
240200160120 -

/x/

>/

v^; ^

A^-

^fm
80 J

145. West Germany

VA

120-

m. Japan

1^**^-^

J

^J

r\

^\+~*~*jT^

/

y%

W^V^V y%

J

J

/

/^^^^S*

Q

^^V

s

zou
o/i n
ZHU
9nn

1 en
IbU
120 -

~r^^

on _j

147. Italy

12080-

40-J

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 48.


32


59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67 1968

Table 2A

bed

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Leading Indicators

Major
Economic Process

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

Minor
Economic Process

Marginal Employment Adjustments

Formation of Business
Enterprises

1966
January
February
March

*30. Nonagricultural placements,
all industries

2. Accession
rate, manufacturing

5. Average
weekly initial
claims for
unemployment
insurance, State
programs1

3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing

*38. Index of net
business formation

13. Number of new
business incorporations

(Hours)

Year
and
month

*1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing

(Thous.)

Per 100 employees)

(Thous.)

Per 100 employees)

(1957-59=100)

(Number)

1.2
1.2
11
.

109.1
109.6
109.6

18,087
17,451
17,266

1.2
11
.
1.3

107.6
106.8
106.2

17,057
16,644
16,577

41.4
B> 41.6
41.5
41.5

570
fj> 600
589

4.9
4.9
5.1

222
219
182

41.4
41.3

522
513
567

July
August
September . .

41.2
41.4
41.4

542
543
509

4.7
5.1
4.9

230
196
183

1.7
1.1
11
,

104.8
103.9
102.7

16,074
16,343
15,764

October
November
December

41.3
41.3
41.0

533
530
524

5.1
4.8
4.6

186
194
212

1.1
1.2
1.3

103.3
100.6
101.4

16,233
16,206
16,583

January
February
March

41.0
40.3
40.4

534
519
497

4.6
4.3
4.1

203 .
242
256

1.4
1.5
1.7

102.2
103.2
103.3

16,703
15,987
16,244

April
May
June

40.5
40.3
40.3

474
448
487

4.2
4.6
4.6

263
234
225

1.5
1.4
1.4

103.7
105.0
108.1

16,760
17,627
17,799

July
August
September

40.4
40.7
40.8

484
486
480

4.2
4.3
4.3

261
215
209

1.6
11
.
1.3

108.4
110.7
110.3

16,300
17,674
18,118

October
November
December
1968

40.7
40.8
40.7

474
476
479

4.7
4.5
4.4

209
201
198

1.3
1.2

8> 1.1

110.6 ,
112.7
113. S

40.2
40.7
P40.7

498
479
P494

r4.5
P4.5
(MA)

214
199
188

rl.4
pi. 3
(HA)

April
May
June.

ft>

,4.9
5.1
5.2

K> 179
185
186

1967

January
February
March

113.5

1

B^ ^

18,000
R> 1M03
^ 18,168
17,223
18, OH
(MA)

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by 6E>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
0> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; M p n , preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA" not available.
exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.




33

Table 2A

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued

bed

Leading Indicators—Continued

Major
Economic Process

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.

Minor
Economic Process

New Investment Commitments

Year
and
month

*6. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
durable goods
industries
(Bil.dol.)

*10. Contracts
94. Index of
and orders for
construction
contracts, total plant and equipment
value
(1957-59=100)

(Bil.dol.)

1966
January
February
March . .

23. 58
23*74
24.39

152
157
158

5.46

April
May
June

24.20
24. 28
24-59

161
156
147

5.91
5.77
5.57

July
August
September

24*37
> 23.51
25.27

147
139
146

B>6.28

October
November
December

24.24
23,03
23, 96

139
130
133

1967
January
February
March

22.07
22,33
22.06

11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations
(Bil.dol.)

24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders, machinery and
equipment industries
(Bil.dol.)

9. Construction
contracts, commercial and
industrial
buildings
(Mil. sq.ft.
floor space)

7. New private *29. Index of
nonfarm housing new private
lousing units auunits started -1
thorized by local2
building permits
(Ann.rate,thous.) (1957-59 = 100)

1,403

6^34

4.45
4.58
4.59

62*29
K> 70.42
67.99

- 1.381
1,400

1 19
1,
106.4
112.1

i>6]69

4.79
4.84
4.75

63.28
64.00
65.85

1,356
1,232
11 1
, 6

105.3
97.4'
84.7

5,97

te>5.09
4.81
4.91

63.54
63.52
64.40

1,061
1,008
1,020

82,1
75.2
65.3

5.76
5.52
5.45

5.96

4.82
4.65
4.60

54.76
64.42
60,21

824
956
910

63.4
63.4
67.1

126
143
149

5.40
5.34
5.50

5^76

4.54
4.24
4.32

49.09
57.84
56.14

1,079
1,132
1,067

33,1
78,9
81.9

22.23
23*36
24*26

138
154
164

5.37
5,55
5.82

5^33

4.44
4,61
4.79

58,27
54.72
62,30

1,099
1,254
1,214

90,7
91.1
97.9

July
August
September

23.72
23.73
23.42

149
165
168

5.72
6.16
5.74

5.96

4.85
5.06
4.66

56.72
61*66
60.45

1,356
1,381 .
1,415

96.4
99.4
102,3

October
November
December

23.38
23.54
26.49

171
168
166

5,96
- .5.94
5.76

P5.73

4.61
4.79
4.83

58.42
63.17
64.08

1,478
1,567
1,235

106,9
102.2
116.7

r24.?7
r24.82
|t>p26.64

159
- 156
ft> 176

(HA)

r4,87
r4.53
P4.67

64*51 61,39
66.61

i*l,430
r1,491
pl,444

97.2
rl20,0
pl20,2

Apri 1 .
May
June

1968
January
February
March

.

5.71
5.66

,

-,

6.10

5*37

<r$.90
"r5«66
• p5.96

.

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by@. Current high values are indicated by [B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
8£> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
value (1,833) was reached in October 1963.
High value ( 2 . ) was reached in February 1 6 .
146
94

2

Digitized for34
FRASER


Table 2A

bed

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Leading Indicators— Continued

Major
Economic Process

INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

Minor
Economic Process

Inventory Investment and Purchasing

Year
and
month

20. Change in T 26. Production
37. Purchased ma21. Change in
*31. Change in
materials, perbook value of
terials, percent of
business invenbook value of
cent of compamanufacturers'
companies reporttories after valmanufacturing
nies reporting
inventories of
and trade inven- ing higher invenuation adjustcommitments 60
materials2 and
tories1
tories, total
ment, all indusdays or longer©
supplies
tries
(Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann.rate,bil.dol.) (Percent reporting) ;Ann. rate, bil.dol, (Percent reporting)

32. Vendor performance, percent of
companies reporting
slower deliveries©

25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries

1966
January..
February.
March....

+9.9

+8,4
+11-* 6
4-13.2

April.
May.,
June..

+14.0

41$, X

July
August....
September.

+11 „ 4

October...
November.
December.

+18. 5

+13*0'

-49
'47
51

53
.54.

+1*1
+1.1

+0*8
+4*1'
+3A

, +1,1

4-5*3
+3*3

56*
"55
55.

+9*6

57'
53

•-+1.3

+2.2

1967
January..
February.
March....
April,
May.,
June.,

'+12.9

+0,5

July
August
September....

48 '

+3.2+1.3

37'
-40'

.+2*2

- +8.9

October
November....
December

,40'

' -0 * S

•-+2'. 2

0.0

1968
January
February
March

;;*+q*'3,;<P~0;9
-./;-{*A)

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December....
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by U>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 1 4 , 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
fi> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*)are included in the 1966 NBER "short listn of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "aT, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•'•High value (63) was reached in November 1964.
High value (+6.6) was reached in December 1961.

2




35

Table 2A

BASIC DATA

bed

APRIL 1968

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued

Leading Indicators—Continued

Major
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Sensitive Commodity
Prices

Profits and Profit Margins

Stock Prices

*23. Index of industrial materials prices®

*19. Index of stock
prices, 500 common
stocks®

*16. Corporate profits
after taxes

22. Ratio of profits to
income originating,
corporate, all industries

18. Profits (before
taxes) per dollar of
sales, all manufacturing corporations

*17. Ratio, price to
unit labor cost index,
manufacturing

(1957-59 = 100)

(1941-43 - 10)

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

(Percent)

(Cents)

(1957-59 = 100)

Year
and
month

1966
January
February
March

93.32
92.69
$8.68

120.5
122.9

B>123.5

49*i

$>13*5

R>9^8

105.1
105.1
105.1
104.4
105.1
104.6

Apri 1
May
June

121.5
118.3
113.4

91.60

86.78
86.06

49.2

13*2

9*3

July
August
September

118.8
1 17
1.
108.9

85.84
80.65

49*4

13 !6

9*2

105.2
104.5
104.2

October
November
December

106.3
105.9
105.8

77.13

49*3

12*6

9*.6

103.9
103.0
103.1

January
February
March

106.8
105.2
102,5

84.45
87.36
89.42

46." 5

12.0

8*. 5

101.5
101.0
100.7

Apri 1
May
June

100.1
99.6
99.8

90.96
92.59

46*. 5

ii.9

8*2

100.8
100.3
99.8

July
August
September

98.3
98.1
97.8

93.01
47*1

ll.7

8*1

100.2
99.8
99.2

October
November
December

97.7
99.1
100.1

95.66
92,66
95.30

U> *-5o!l

12,2

8.4

January
February
March

99.8
99.5
100.1

95.04
90.75
89.09

(»i)

(iij

April
May
June

X

fc>

77.81

80.99
Si. 33

1967

91.43

94.49
U> 95.81

r99.4
99.5
rlOO.5

1968

97.9

S

(M)

r99.6
j-98.8
P99.2

95.88

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by K>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
fi>.
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Average
2

for April 18, 19, and 22.
Average for April 19, 22, and 23.

36




Table 2A

bed

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Leading Indicators—Continued

Major
Economic Process

MONEY AND CREDIT

Minor
Economic Process

Year

and

Credit Difficulties

Flows of Money and Credit
98. Change in
money supply
and time
deposits

85. Change in
U.S. money
supply

month
(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by fin. inst.
and life insurance companies
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

*113. Net change
in consumer
installment
debt 2

112. Change in
business loans

(Ann. rate,

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

bil. dol.)

110. Total pri- 14. Current lia- 39. Delinquency
vate borrowing bilities of busi- rate, 30 days
ness failures3 and over, total
installment loans
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Percent)

1966
+6,48
H*56
+9.12

+7.92
+2.88
+6.36

+23.81
+21.85
+22.87

+7.16
+6.46
,+7.79

+14.10
+6.24
+8.76

70,500

1 16
1.7
94.59
98.73

+12.36
+4. BO
+7, ^

+9.24
-2.16
+2.88

+20.77
+17.76
+15.22

+6.37
+5.92
+6,59

+8,50
+9.58
+17.70

|D> 73,908

106.93
92.41
1 12
1.3

July
August
September

+3.72
+5*16
+3.36

-4.92
+1.44
+2.88

+12.54
+12.68
+11.40

+6.77
+7.22
+5.70

B> +21.11
+3.28
+0.67

58,004

62.84
159.29
128.77

October
November
December

-0.72
-0.72
+5,52

-2.76
0.00
+2.16

+9.96
+9.66
+6.86

+4.56
+5.33
+3.85

+5.93
+2.63

45,748

+0.14

128.02
116.90
194.09

+7.68
+14.16
|C>+15.0Q

-0.72
+8.40
+11.16

+9.40
r+11.78
+11.95

+3.36
+2.59
+3.17

+7.04
+0.86
+6.83

-2.76
fc>+12.48
+11.64

+11.64
+15.60
+18.11

+2.56
+2,32
+3.50

+9.25

June

+5.64
+13.08
+14.28

rf8.09

July
August
September

+13.44
+12.96
+6.12

+11.52
+8.04
+0.72

+14.11
+22.82
+20.74.

+2.70
+4.13
+3.41

r+16.09
r-9.19
r-2.15

68,136

76.85
91.13
91*29

October
November
December

+10.08
+8.64
+5.28

+7.32
+6.00
+2.04

+21,02
+22.07
+19.87

+3.73
+5.02
+4.60

+5.36
+2.66
+8.39

p72,672

95.81
85.55
192.56

1+3.00
r+4.20
pH-8.16

r+6.60
rO.OQ
jH-5.88

+18.49
pf!9.20
(HA)

+4.78
+6.79
(NA)

+12.53

January
February
March
April

May
June

l!?3
1,78
l!?6
1*76
1.79
l!?5

1967
January
February
March
April

May

+1.63

60,576

118.61
111.23
108.87

61,640

110,80
93.00
87,20

1*.S2
1.90

l.*72
l!65
1.66

l.*74

1968
January
February
March

-2.28

p+4.07

(NA)

116.62
61,06
80.46

8>1*51

April

May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
[ED> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1

High value ( 4 0 ) was reached in October 1963.
2.2
High value ( 8 9 ) was reached in April 1965.
+.4

3

High value ( 2 8 ) was reached in August 1 6 .
5.6
93

2




37

Table 2A

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators

Major
Economic Process

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Minor
Economic Process

511. Man-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments

301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled

46. Index of
help-wanted
advertising in
newspapers

(Thous.)

Year
and
month

Comprehensive Unemployment

Comprehensive Employment

Job Vacancies

(1957-59 = 100)

(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)

*41. Number of
employees in
nonagricultural
establishments

42. Total nonagricultural
employment,
labor force
survey

*43. Unemployment rate, total

45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs1

40. Unemployment rate,
married males

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

1966
January ...
February
March

383
401
425-

184
191
201

126.73
127.89
128.71

62,503
62,889
63,296

68,185
68,179
68,192

3.9
3.7
3.8

2,6

2.6
2,3

1.9
1.9
1.9

April
May
June

431
426
424

189
185
184

128,23
128,27
129.52

63,427
63,616
64,069

68,375
68,488
68,772

3*7
3.9
3.8

2*1
2.1
2,2

1.8
1.8
1.9

186
189
189

129.45
130,00
129.86

64,180
64,345
64,394

68,943
69,230
69,264

3.8
3.8

3.8

2.4
2,4

2.0
1.9
1.8

428 •
424
$>438

July.
August
September

2,1

October
November
December

429
414
404

193
194
193

130.52
131.11
131.13

64,694
65,014
65,251

69,515
69,915
69,828

3.8
3.6
3.7

| > 2.0
t
2,1

2.3

1.8
1.8
1.8

1967
January
February . .
March

392
375
362

189
190
184

132,15
131.57
131.67

65,564
65,692
65,749

70,104
70,187
69,964

3,7
3.7
3.7

2.3
2.4
2,6

1.7
1.7
1.8

April
May
June

353
351
351

181
174
171

131.08
130 . 89
131.80

65,653
65,639
65,903

70,096
69,822
70,430

3.7
3.9
3.9

2,6
2.7
2.6

July
August
September

344
350
373

169
180
185

131.62
132.74
132.56

65,939
66,190
66,055

70,631
70,708
70,941

3.9
3.8
4.1

2.8
2.6
2,4

1.8
1.9
1.8

October
November
December

360
352
345

186
187
190

132.35
134.37
134*06

66,243
66,918
67,126

71,017
71,166
71,361

4.3
3.8
3.7

2.3
2.3
2,2

1,9
1.7
1.7

r356
360
P368

184
r!93
S£>P201

r!33-05
B>rl35.25
^-pUS.U

r67,137
r67,712
J>p67,855

71,164
71,604
g> 71,788

|£>3.5
3.7
3.6

2.3
2.3

r>i.67

2.2

1.7

1968
January
February
March
April
May
June

..

,

1.9
1.9
1.9

.

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by ED>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 1 4 , 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
B>>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk"(*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e*, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA" not available.
1

Data~ exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.

38



Table 2A

bed

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued

Major
Economic Process

PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE

Minor
Economic Process

Comprehensive Production

Comprehensive Income

49. Gross national product
in current dollars

1966
January
February . . .
March

*47. Index of industrial production

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

Year
and
month

*50. Gross national product
in 1958 dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(1957-59 = 100)

*52. Personal
income

53. Wages and
salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
*816. Manufacturing and trade
sales

57. Final sales
(series 49 minus
series 21)

(Mil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

* 54. Sales of
retail stores

(Mil.dol.)

725*. 9

645.4

150.7
152.4
153.8

563.7
567.4
572.3

149.4
151.5
153.4

84,679
84,517
86,939

716*0

25,081
25,049
25,536

April
May
June

736.7

649*. 3

153.9
155.4
156.5

574.7
576.1
581.1

154,0
155.0
156,8

85,434
85,365
86,917

722*. 6

24,949
24,475
25,394

July
August
September . .

743.' 8

654*. 8

157.2
157,8158.1

584.7
589,1
594.1

156.9
158.5
159.5

86,611
86,939
86,734

737^4

25,362
25,572
25,703

October
November
December . . .

762,1

66i.*i

159.4
159.1
159.5

597.5
602.1
605.0

160.5
161.3
162.1

86,983
86,528
87,690

743*6

25,550
25,610
25,368

January .
February
March

766 [3

660*7

158.2
156.6
156.4

610.4
612.6
615.6

163.3
162.4
162.7

87,182
86,138
87,255

759.2

25,687
25,470
25,739

April . ...
May
June

775.1

664.7

156.5
155.6
155.6

616.5
618.2
622.6

162.2
161.5
162,4

86,656
87,358
88,368

774*6

25,918
25,897
26,544

July
August
September

791. 2

672.6

156,6
158.1
156,8

627.0
631.6
634.4

163.4
165.2
165.5

88,759
89,067
88,633

787,4

26,444
26,422
26,732

807*3

679^6

156,9
159.5
162.0

635.9
642.4
649.3

165.2
168.4
170.4

87,517
89,938
92,453

798.1

26,089
26,411
26,470

|t>p6S9,"7

650.9
r659.3
f£>p666.0

170,3

jj>pa27.'3

rl73.9
jj£> P174.3

r92,88S
R>P93,061
^ (HA)

8>p£23-<i

r27,065
r27,482
f>.p28,009

1967

October
November
December
1968
January
February
March

161.2
r!6l,5
f£>pl62.1

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by[FE>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 1 4 , 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
[[t> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; V, preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.




39

Table 2A

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued

Roughly Coincident Indicators— Continued

Major
Economic Process

FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT

PRICES, COSTS, AND
PROFITS

Minor
Economic Process

Backlog of Investment
Commitments

Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices

96.Manufacurers' unfilled
orders, durable
joods indusries
(Bil.dol.)

Year
and
month

97. Backlog
of capital
appropriations, manufacturing
(Bil.dol.)

55. Index of
wholesale
prices, industrial commodities ®

58. Index of
wholesale
prices, manufactured
goods®

(1957-59 = 100)(1957-59 = 100)

MONEY AND CREDIT
Bank
Reserves

Money Market Interest Rates

93. Free
reserves ®

114. Treasury
bill rate®

116. Corporate bond
yields ©

(Mil.dol.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

115. Treasury 117. Municipal
bond yields® bond yields®

(Percent)

(Percent)

1966
January
February
March

63-80
65.11
66.76

Apri 1
May
June

68.25
69.61
71.31

July
August
September

72.65
73.29
75.59

October
November
December

76. 38
76.17
76.42

3.52
3.64

19^33

103.5
103,3
104.0

104,4
104.9
105.0

-44
-107
-246

4,60
4.67
4.63

4.93
5.09
5.33

4.43
4,61
4.63

20^56

104.3
104.7
104.9

105.1
105.5
105.6

-268
-352
-352

4,61
4.64
4.54

5.38
5,55
5,67

4.55
4.57
4.63

3.77

20.77

105.2
105.2
105.2

106.0
106.4
106.4

-362
-390
-368

4.86
4.93
5.36

5.81
6.04
6.14

4.75
4.80
4.79

3.95
4.12
4.12

20.72

105.3
105.5
105.5

106.3
106.2
106.2

IO-431
-222
-165

g>5.39
5.34
5.01

6.04
6.11
5,98

4.70
4.74
4.65

3.94
3.86
3.86

20^40

105.8
106.0
106.0

106.4
106.4
106.3

-16
-4
+236

4.76
4.55
4.29

5.53
5.35
5.55

4.40
4.47
4.45

3.54
3.52
3.55

20.32

106.0
106.0
106.0

106.2
106.3
106.6

+175
+269
+297

3.85
3.64
3.48

5.59
5.90
6.06

4.51
4.76
4.86

3.60
3.89
3.96

106.8
106.8
107.1

+272
+298
+268

4.31
4.28

20.63

106.0
106.3
106.5

4.45

6.06
6.30
6.33

4.66
4.95
4.99

4.02
3.99
4.12

|jj>p20.77

106.8
107.1
107.4

107.1
107.2
107.6

+160
+270
.+107

4.59
4.76
5.01

6.53
6.87
B>6.93

|t>5.*44
5.36

4.30
4.34
4.43

r!07.8
108.3
|
O 108.6

108.1
rl08.6
JO 108.9

+144
ri-32
P-310

5.08
4-97
5.14

6.57
6.57
6.80

5.18
5.16
5.39

4.29
4.31
|I>4.54

3.72
3.56
3.65

1967
January
February
March

75.43
75.13
74.06

April
May
June

74.02
74.97
76.18

July
August
September

76.71
76.80
77.27

,.

78.34
78.40
79.60

October
November
December .

1968
r79.14
r79.29
|>p80.79

January
February
March

(NA)

April
May
June
July
August
September

. ..

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by® . Current high values are indicated by [S>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

40



Table 2A

bed

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Lagging Indicators

Major
Economic Process

EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

Minor
Economic Process

Long-Duration
Unemployment

Investment Expenditures

Inventories

*502. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over

505. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures

(Percent)

Year
and
month

*61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

1966
January
February
March

0.8
0.8

April
May
June

0.3
0.7
0.6

60 !io

July
August
September

0.6
0.6
0.6

61 '.25

October
November
December
1967
January
February
March

0.7
0.6
0.6

|£>62*.80

0.6
0.6
0.6

April
May
June
July
August
September

*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value

(Bil. dol.)

65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods,
book value

(Bil. dol.)

65.13
63.91

121.30
122,26
123,36

23.20
23.37
23.57

65.20
65.30

124.45
125.95
127,33

23.60
23.84
23.92

128.43
129.73
130.53

24.24
24.39
24.59

68.56

132.05
133.58
135.23

24.77
25.27
25.71

63.165

70.44
69.50
68.85

136.30
136.49
136.82

26.13
26.40
26.58

0.6
0,6
0.6

61*. 50

66.79
67.56
68.30

137,08
137.19
136.80

26.87
27.02
26.76

0.6
0.6
0,6

60*. 90

70.20
69.75
70.52

137,11
137.85
137.79

26.92
27.04
26.98

0.6
0.6
0.6

62 ", 70

68.95
69.97
72.25

138.27
139.33
140.74

26.92
27.15
27.37

0.6
0.6
U 0.6
>

a64*.80

f£> T73.18
C
^ P72.43

rUl.34

r27.70
B>P27,88
(MA)

58.00

66.58

0.8

..

October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June

66.18
68.41
68.19

68.68
69.13
68,12

(NA)

•>**?$

a64*30

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain np seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by 6E>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
B>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; V, preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.




41

Table 2A

BASIC DATA

bed

APRIL 1968

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued

Lagging Indicators— Continued

Major
Economic Process

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

Minor
Economic Process

Unit Labor Costs

MONEY AND CREDIT
Interest Rates on Business Loans
and Mortgages

Outstanding Debt

68. Labor cost (cur.
dol.) per unit of gross
product (1958 dol.),
nonfinancial corporations

66. Consumer installment debt

*72. Commercial and
industrial loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large
commercial banks

*67. Bank rates on
short-term business
loans, 35 cities (u;1

118. Mortgage yields,
residential @

(Dollars)

Year
and
month

*62. Index of labor
cost per unit of output, manufacturing

(1957-59 = 100)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Percent)

(Percent)

1966

99*9

January
February
March
April
May
June...

53,255
53,747
54,522

69,638
70,131
70,6&>

55,118
56,134
57,^74

100. a
11B
0.
102.1 ;

71,244
71,846
72,321

59,3&>
59,014
59,3B1

102*3 - '
103.1 '
103.0 .

72,701
73,145
73,466

59,911
60,042
59,763

„, 104*6* .
105*3 '<
105«&

73,746
73,962
74,226

60,875 .
^3,525 61,167 '

105*4
106,0, ,
,; Hfc.jSh* ,

0.687

67,920
68,453 !
69,107

100.7
100.4
101* Q

0,679

July
August
September

99* a

0.670

74,439
74,632
74,924

62,407
61, a» -.
3?63,326

75,149
'75,493
75,,?77

'r64,309''
62,944
63»-309.;

99.3

^
.

..

October
November
December

0.693

T '

-

*- 5*70
(HA)
6.00

535 -

.

'

(MA)
6.32
6,45

: 5*32 ^

, * «»

6.51
6,58
6.63

,
' •

6*'30'""•'••. .

" ' ' ' ' V;H> :

:

. ' ' (HA)
'-6*81

^ - -6,77

1967
January
February
March

0,711

•

April
May
June

0.713

July
August
September

0*722

October
November
December

'

'
-

-

' "106.6, - 107*0;

•:S>a«0"< . - ',
- "/ picrtCr ! ' : ' ' - ' « - ;
- '.icwvr'.: "•.
x

|p>.*0*725
.

1968
January
February
March...

;

'

July
August
September
October
November
December

;

• '{^^rn^^m § ^fe? ^.ae?-:. -''•/''/' --'-' ^5i*-;
* ^w&m&s.- '/:'"':'VV"'/«ii5o;,;
- ;• ' 'tt$*$i$ fS^r^r^s ^tfj^^fa*
'

April
May
June

",

. '*''"'• *,„.,*'"'• '•>'>* '-'-**;!:
' - -' "'•?'• "i,
' - ' • ' ' , - . *T?°'*r -'f^

,-

, -

"'-V:''''«i"'jf*1*«i"H
- ' ' - - ";2''f''?;f/f;!'t,

'':/'AO:-;/-"^ '-6,29
,;^'^V'/:; - 6.44

:
,'//'.' '•;', /f^*:t"^}i
- * / • - - ,; ' 'V.V'";'^^V?' ^1?%'
;

;

'^^3

';^;^''7' " • 6*60
;f!&:|fy^:^63

;Si^i":-;^fe'
m^ASm^''
^ilplffg^a
;
;
''''T^'^rti^MI
" / , /::';',^<A^|i^%;| ii£fl"*^^' ^C^ •'''"-'
:

^>S£s' ^i«i'''

^?r^::^^M, •
^^^;^v'"/' l.v /

^-:; '•''-,

• ;->;:' -;1?1S1* "i??^'-//'' ' ,>*' ' ' '--,':- '<•

' ' ,

y:4:;-"; 'v''- -: ^«^ -

•::-^S ;t^;;V-V6.5i

; :«. , . ^m ;
:

^/y';.,;: ' 6,62
>/X> ' ;- : ' -'-6.46
*4'^ :
;

« ! , , # * ^ /'

- ',;

' '76*068'' " / - ' - . «6ii59? '
' 76,506-,, V . ' '
63,797'-: :
, .i®*$.$:/; , I/: ,--/•; '^BW f
f:

;

..' ' •';. (ii)

>

',,„'>'•. : -,;^fv^.

/; •r;:/;-i,y^'§|| i i i l ' ^ ^
^ l t: ^
^"^V'v-W'i-v
- /' ''-'. ''''"/''"tWM /f^sM-^:^' '/,t"'Af I
~:
* •„. '\':~v^rg$

*./; --.rt£&&

•> ; :-mm
-mm
;
:

• •''•''' *:."^ :''-;:^Y-$%%&

M}

'4 5;MlSiil|

i^
bf:^^#s;vv- '-'^r t ^•/>
V'i
^M^i^iSfi&s £?i?; "- ;-&
'^4^^^:^ £4"'%* ', ?/-^
'4'/^A.t!%t?s,;>,.f'i<?> .S''»'f.,,.<
-. ' / -,
/

'^m^&^ffi'.^'; '*v'~/'l; '*

v^V'fe^^&ft^lSl
^K^K^S/^ft^%
'-' -/ "-';* -V ' "~"4'^> -, i ,# ,
^'^^^vV^tS

^'^ -fMlaSS
^ ^v^vv^f/^:^

•K

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by [B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
B> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e*, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1

Prior to 1 6 , data are based on 19 cities and refer to the last month of the quarter.
97

42




Table 2A

bed

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing

Major
Economic Process

PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS

FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS

Minor
Economic Process

Comprehensive
Retail Prices

Foreign Trade and Payments

81. Index of consumer prices ©
Year
and
month

89. Excess of receipts (+) or
payments (-) in U.S. balance
of payments
a. Liquidity
balance basis

(1957-59 = 100)

(Mil.dol.)

b. Official
settlements
basis
(Mil.dol.)

88. Merchandise
trade balance
(series 86 minus
series 87)

86. Exports, excluding military
aid shipments,
total

861. Manufacturers' new orders
or export, durable
goods except
motor vehicles
and parts ©

862. Index of
export orders,
nonelectrical
machinery

87. General
imports, total

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(1957-59=1100)

(Mil.dol.)

1966
852
849
904

237
201
227

rl,917.8
r2,023.5
r2,079.8

r2,354.3
r2,415.5
r2»487.0

749
976
1,078

195
217
217

r2, 113.0
r2,oat.6
r2,141*3

•r+277*4
x*324.4
n-244*4

r2,455.4
r2,443.6
r2,539<6

805
826
It 059

201
199
200

r2,178.0
r2,119.2
r2,295,2

r*33S,2
iH-316.6
i*lS4.3

r2,5SS,3
r2,502,9
r2,408.9

865
785
1,200

240
235
225

r2, 250.1
r2* 186.3
r2»224.6

+360.4
+378. 1
+348*5

2,615,9
2,607,3
2,551,4

891
833
905

234
196
252

2,255.5
2,229*2
2,202,9

-832

U27.8
+407,0
+349.2 '

2,653*8
2,546.9
2,576,5

772
1,029
1,043

215
220
218 I

2,226.0
2,139,9
2,227.3

-633

+456

+376,1
+422.8
+434,2

2,584.1
2,547,92,642.7

219
230231

2,208,0
2,125,1
2,208,5

-1,851

-1,205

+190.8
+316,5
+79.1

2,392,3
2,692,2
2,603,9

796
878
1.085

258 234
255

2,201,5
2,375.7
2,524.B

<NA)

+169,3
+171,2
-157*7

2,784,7
2,773*1
2,454,7

r877
P989
(MA)

January
February
March

111,0
111.6
112,0

-651

-443

r+346,6
iH-352.4
1*4,74. "4

r2,264*4 I
r2,375.9
r2,554.2

April
May
June

112,5
112,6
112,9

-122

-175 -

•iH-241.3
rf333.9
1+345,7

July
August
September

113,3
113.8
141
1.

-165

+861

1X4.6
114. 7

-419

-18

January
February
March

114.7
114*8
115.0

-533

-1,817

April
May
June

115,3
115.6
116.0

-553

July
August
September

116.5
116,9
117,1

October
November
December

117.5
117. 8
118.2

October
November
December

114.5

1967

875
841
905

1968
January
February
March

118.6
119.0
119.5

(MA)

215
p260
(MA)

2,615.4
2,601.9
2,612.4

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V. estimated; "a" anticipated; and "NA", not available.




43

Table 2A

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

bed

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued

Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing-Continued

Major
Economic Process

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

Minor
Economic Process

Federal Government Activities
95. Federal
surplus (+)
or deficit (-),
national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

Year
and
month

951. Federal
receipts,
national income
and product
accounts

952. Federal
expenditures,
national income
and product
accounts

101. National
defense purchases, current dollars

91. Defense
Department
obligations,
total

90. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement

99. New
orders, defense
products
industries

92. Military
prime contract
awards to
U.S. business
firms and
institutions

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Bil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

1

C)

1966

(M

55.1

5,100
5,179
5,379

1,639
1,736
1,904

3*40
3.04
3.38

2,940
2,850
2,913

138.4

58^4

6,444
5,447
7,084

2,109
1,620
2,415

3*30
2.91
3.68

3,359
3,061
3,724

145*6

146*. 3

63.0

4,993
7,215
6,579

1,753
2,251
1,866

3.50
3,16
4.67

4,016
3,170
3,530

148.6

151.9

65^6

6,059
5,939
6,023

1,931
1,723
1,937

3.31
2*73
3.36

3,396
3,252
3,501

-11.9

149i 1

160.9

70.2

6,518
6,595
6,343

2,296
2,140
1,903

2.85
3.33
3.24

3,338
3,849
2,984

Apri 1
May
June

-14.7

148,1

162 *,8

72^5

6,211
7,732
6,891

1,754
2,480
2,290

3*27
3.86
4*20

2,920
4,121
3,626

July
August
September

-13*2

152*7

165.9

73.3

5,928
7,003
7,479

1,633
1,925
2,958

3.64
2.84
3*71

3,610
3,686
3,665

r-10.7

157^3

167^9

74^2

7,449
6,565
6,331

2,735
2,173
1,846

4*09
3.06
3.97

3,665
3,308
3,479

(HA)

pi74*8

p76.*6

7,033
7,615
(MA)

2,360
2,865
(HA)

r3.33
r3.74
P5.59

2,887'
3,445
(HA)

January
February
March

. ..
+2.2

13?] 0

134.8

April
May
June

+3.2

141.6

July
August
September

-6,7

October
November
December

-3.3

1967
January
February
March

October
November
December

....

1968
January
February
March

(HA)

;

,

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
"New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.

44




Table 2A

bed

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing and Economic Process

Major
Economic Process

UNCLASSIFIED INDICATORS

Minor
Economic Process

Unclassified Indicators

1966
January
February
March

851. Ratio,
inventories to
sales, manufacturing and
trade

852. Ratio,
unfilled orders
to shipments,
manufacturers'
durable goods

853. Ratio,
production of
business
equipment to
consumer goods

854. Ratio,
personal saving
to disposable
personal income

(Percent)

Year
and
month

850. Ratio,
output to
capacity,
manufacturing

(Ratio)

(Ratio)

(1957-59 = 100)

(Ratio)

855. Ratio,
nonagri cultural
job openings
unfilled to
persons
unemployed
(Ratio)

856. Ratio,
average earnings
of production
workers in
manufacturing to
consumer prices
(1957-59 = 100)

857. Vacancy
rate in total
rental housing®

(Percent)

90*. 5

1,4-3
1.45
1.42

3.21
3.28
3.25

117.9
• 119*1 '
119*7

0.053

0.13C
0.143
0.149

113.4
113.7
113.2

7,! 5

April
May
June

9<X9

.1.46
1,48
1.46

3,37
3.40
3.50

119,8
121.5
123,2

0.057

0,154
0.145
0.146

113.5
113.7
113,7

6^8

July
August
September

9o!e

1.48
1,49
1.50

3.49
3.54
3.64

124.8
125,9
126,4

0.057

0.148
0.146
0.153

113.8
133.8
114.3

6.*8

90.6

1.52
1.54
1.54

3.67
3.67
3.62

125.4
125.9
126.1

0.066

0.149
0.152
0.141

114.1
114.0
113.9

7.0

p87.1

1.56
1.58
1.57

3.64
3.68
3.58

126.3
127.7
125.8

0.073

0.138
0.131
0.127

114.3
115.1
114.8

6." 6

April
May
June

p84.*9

1.58
1.57
1.55

3.73
3.69
3,74

124.7
124,7
123.4

0.067

0.123
0.119
0.115

114.9
114*9
115.2

6.3

July
August
September

p84.1

1.54
1.55
1.55

3.71
3.63
3.78

122.9
121.5
122.3

0.070

0.114
0,119
0*118

115.2
115.6
115.5

6*. 4

rpalU

1.58
1.55
1.52

3.88
3.70
3.64

119.6
122.3
•120.0

0.075

0.108
0,118
0.119

115.3
115.8
116.2

5*.6

1-1.52

r3.53
r3.58
P3.57

r!21.1
r!20.4
P119.5

pO.068

rO.129
0.122
pO,129

r!17.0
117.0
P117.3

October
November
December
1967
January
February
March

October
November
December
1968
January
February
March

p84.ll

pi. 52
(HA)

(HA)

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.




45

Table 2B

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Major
Economic Process

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES

Minor
Economic Process

bed

Industrial Production Indexes
47. United
States, index
of industrial
production

123. Canada,\
index of industrial production

122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production

121.0ECD,1
European countries, index of
industrial production

126. France,
index of industrial production

125. West Germany, index of
industrial production

128. Japan, in127. Italy, index
dex of industrial of industrial proproduction
duction

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59 =100)

(1957-59= 100)

(1957-59 = 100)

(1957-59 = 100)

(1957-59 = 100) (1957-59 -100)

1966
January
February
March

151
152
154

161
163
163

132
131
134

153
153
156

147
150
15.2

158
157
161

252
251
257

188
188
191

April
May
June

154155
156

164
163
163

132
130
130

155
154
156

151
151
154

160
159
161

261
265
267

188
195
194

July
August
September

157
158
158

163
164
166

132
131
130

155
154
156

155
155
156

158
154
156

273
277
279

195
196
201

October
November
December

159
159
160

167
168
167

128
127
129

155
155
156

155
156
156

154
154
153

285
291
299

199
200
204

1967
January
February
March

158
157
156

166
166
166

129
129
129

155
155
155

156
154
156

151
150
152

298
295
304

207
211
209

April
May
June

156
156
156

168
167
168

130
128
129

155
154
156

153
152
156

150
151
151

305
312
317

212
211
211

157
158
157

169
170
170

129
129
128

156
155
157

156
156
159

156
152
156

321
327
336

210
198
210

157
160
162

169
173
174

128
rl31
rl34

158
160
r!64

159
160
161

r!58
160
168

338
346
349

215
217
215

161
rl62
pl62

p!72
(NA)

p!32

pl63
(HA)

162
p!64
(HA)

pl62
(NA)

P348
(NA)

P217
(NA)

Year
and
month

July
August
September
October
November
December

*

. . .

1968
January
February
March

(HA)

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for identirt
fication only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary "e" es°
timated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
^Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

46



Table 2B

bed

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS-Continued

Major
Economic Process

CONSUMER PRICE INDEXES

Minor
Economic Process

Consumer Price Indexes

Year

81. United States, 133. Canada,
index of consumer index of consumer
prices ©
prices®

132. United King136. France,
index of consumer
dom, index of
consumer prices® prices ®

135. West Germany, 138. Japan, index
index of consumer of consumer
prices ©
prices®

137. Italy, index
of consumer
prices®

(1957-59 = 100)

(1957-59=100)

and

month
(1957-59=100)

(1957-59 = 100)

January
February
March

11
1
112
112

113

in

137
137
138

120

114

124
124
125

121
121

146
147
148

133
133
133

April

112
113
113

115
115
116

126
127
127

138
139
138

122
122
122

150
148
149

133
134
134

(1957-59- 100)

(1957-59 = 100)

(1957-59 = 100)

1966

May

June
July
August
September

113

114

'116

114

. 116
'-•117 '

127
127
127

139
139
139

122
122
122

149
148
150

134
134
134

October
November
December

114.
115
115

117
117
117

128
128
129

140
140
140

122
122
123

151
150
151

134
135
136

January
February
March

115
115
115

117
117
118

129
129
129

141
141
142

123
123
123

153
154
154

137
138138

April
June

115
116
116

119
119
120

130
130
130

142
142
142

124
124
124

154
153
152

138
138
139

July
August
September

116
117
11?

121
121
121

130
130
129

142
143
143

124
123
123

152
153
156

139
139
140

October
November
December

118
118
118

121
121
122

129
131
131

144
145
145

123
123
123

159
159
160

140
140
140

119
119

123
123
123

132
133
(HA)

147
147
(MA)

125
125
(MA)

161
161
(HA)

140
140
(HA)

1967

May

1968
January
February
March

120

. ' ,

April

May

June
July
August
September
October
November
December

'•

•' '// '..-/,

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.




47

Table 2B

BASIC DATA

APRIL 1968

LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS-Continued

Major
Economic Process

(JOCK PRICE INDEXES

Minor
Economic Process

bed

Stock Price Indexes
19. United States,
index of stock
prices, 500 common stocks ©

143. Canada,
index of stock
prices®

142. United Kingdom, index of
stock prices ®

146. France, index
of stock prices ®

(1957-59 = 100)

(1957-59 = 100)

(1957-59= 100)

(1957-59 = 100)

1966
January
February
March

189
188
180

192
191
186

173
178
174

127
123
118

April
May
June

186
176
174

190
182
182

173
179
181

July
August
September

174
163
158

180
171
162

October
November
December
1967
January
February
March

156
164
165

Year
and
month

145. West Germany, 148. Japan, index
of stock prices ®
index of stock
prices®

(1957-59 = 100)

147. Italy, index
of stock prices®

(1957-59=100)

(1957-59 = 100)

177
180
178

223

230
241

147
153
156

114
110
110

175
168
159

240
243
236

144
143
143

173
154
152

108
108
102

149
150
154

231
230
226

146
147
145

158
162
166

150
147
151

101
107
103

151
147
148

224
221
218

149
147
144

171
177
181

175
180
182

157
156
159

99
103
98

148
156
159

223
229
228

142
141

Apri 1
May
June.

184
188
185

185
186
1'86

167
171
172

96
99
98

158
155
154

223
231
231

129
132
130

July
August
September

189
192
194

189
194
198

176
177
187

94
99
110

156
175
182

231
215
209

129
133
139

October
November
December
1968
January
February
March

194
188
193

192
188
189

196
203
200

109
106
103

182
192
194

213
206
198

143
139
135

193
184
181

189
177
171

202
208
213

107
104

205

p203

rpllO

r209

134
130

p!94

pl80

p231

pi 12

April
May
June

127

209

208
209

rpl33

p220

p219

p!36

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; Me", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

48



Section TWO

ANALYTICAL
iASURES

charts and tables

DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF

COMPONENTS

Average workweek—27 industries
New orders—36 industries
Capital appropriations—17 industries
Profits—1,000 corporations
Stock prices—77 industries
Industrial materials prices—73 materials
State unemployment claims—47 areas
Nonagricultural employment—30 industries
Production—24 industries
Wholesale prices—22 industries
Retail sales—23 fypes of stores
Net sales—800 companies
New orders—400 companies
Carloadings—79 commodity groups
Plant and equipment expenditures—18 industries

BASIC DATA AND DIRECTIONS OF CHANGi FOR COMPONENTS




OF DIFFUSION INDEXES




Chart 2

bed

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

APRIL 1968

DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT
Leading Indexes
(Nov.) (Oct.;
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.]
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

Percent

ommon stocks- 77 indus.

I. insur.-47 areas (inverted]

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

81

62

63

84

65

66

67

1968

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4, Current data for thsse series are shown on pages 54 and 55,




51

Chart 2

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

APRIL 1968

bed

DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indexes
(July) (Aug.)

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

1948

49

50

P

51

52

53

54

(July) (Apr.)
P T

T

55

56

57

58

(May) (Feb.;
P T

59

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page4. Current data for these series are shown on page 56.

52



60

61

Percent

62

63

64

65

66

67

1968

Chart 2

bed

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

APRIL 1968

DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued

g

Actual and Anticipated Indexes
(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

Percent

in total carloadings
millions of cars-4-Q span)

Data are centered within spans. Latest data are as follows:
Series number and
date of survey

49

50

51

52

53

Anticipated

D35 D36 (December 1967)
D48 (March 1968) v
D61 (February 1968)

1948

Actual
4th Q 1966-4th Q 1967
2d Q 1966-2d Q 1967
3d Q 1967-4th Q 1967

2d£1967-2dQ1968
2d Q 1967-2d Q 1968
1st Q 1968-2nd Q 1968

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

1968

See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page4. Current data for these series are shown on page 57.




53

Table 3

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

APRIL 1968

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES

Dl. Average workweek, manufacturing
(21 industries)

Year
and
month

1-month span

D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (36 industries)1

1-month span

9-month span

9-month span

bed

Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB (17 industries)

1-quarter span

3- quarter span

1966
January
.
February
March

50,0
81.0
42.9

81.0
85.7
38.1

30.6
50.0
84.7

75.0
75.0
66.7

65

76

April
May
June

35.7
54.8
33.3

50.0
45.2
40.5

41.7
50.0
51.4

72.2
58.3
59.7

62

47

July
August
September

19.0
66.7
64.3

23.8
0.0
9.5

50.0 '
59.7
37.5

55.6
44.4
41.7

29

47

October
November
December
1967
January
February
March

35.7
38.1
9.5

9.5
14.3
14.3

50,0
44.4
55.6

36.1
31.9
27.8

59

35

69.0
4.8
61.9

9.5
9.5
9.5

31.9
38.9
55.6

38.9
41.7
45.8

53

47

Apri 1
May
June

47.6
26.2
52.4

19.0
42.9
28.6

50.0
58.3
61.1

66.7
47.1
58.8

53

41

July
August
September

64.3
73.8
71.4

76.2
59.5
r38.1

52.8
65.3
38.2

82.4
88.2
76.5

53

P53

October
November
December

28.6
78.6
33.3

r78,6
p71.4

55.9
64.7
76.5

r73.5
p76.5

P4I

1968
January
February
March

14.3
r85.7
p28.6

r41.2
r44,l
p6l.8

(NA)

(HA)

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

,

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The Y indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
•"•Based on 36 industries through August 1967 and on 34 industries thereafter.

54



Table 3

bed

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

APRIL 1968

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Leading Indexes-Continued

D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB
D19. Index of stock prices, 500 common D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(about 1,000 corporastocks (77 industries)® -1
(13 industrial materials)
tions)

Year
and
month

1-quarter span

D5. Initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, week
including the 12th (47 areas)

1-month span

9-month span

1-month span

59

74.0
48.7
14.3

51.9
43.5
37.7

61.5
76.9
46.2

53.8
61.5
61.5

38.3
44.7
83.0

91.5
74.5
44.7

April
May
June

59

63.6
3.9
23.4

22.1
11.7
6.5

30.8
42.3
46.2

53.8
30.8
15.4

53.2
45.7
57.4

68.1
76.6
78.7

July
August
September

50

38.3
6.5
3.9

9.7
22.1
20.1

61.5
26.9
0.0

7.7
7.7
7.7

17.0
72.3
80.9

80.9
34.0
34.0

October
November
December
1967
January
February
March

54

25.3
88.3
59.7

47.4
58.4
66.2

19.2
30.8
57.7

0.0
0.0
0.0

36.2
46.8
27.7

23.4
17.0
46.8

48

90.9
92.2
61.0

85.7
90.3
97.4

46.2
53.8
23.1

0.0
15.4
26.9

55.3
17.0
46.8

27.7
8.5
8.5

April
May
June

46

76.0
74.0
51.3

93.4
92.1
86.2

23.1
61.5
69.2

30.8
23.1
23.1

55.3
54.3
55.3

31.9
44.7
29.8

July
August
September

52

81.6
77.6
57.2

68.4
65.8
71.1

30.8
53.8
19.2

23.1
30.8
46.2

34.0
72.3
60.6

78.7
78.7
66.0

October
November
December

59

32.2
7.9
71.1

52.6
46.1

46.2
46.2
61.5

38.5
30.8
30.8

38.3
74.5
46.8

80.9
70.2

1966
January
.
February
March

1968
January
February
March.

April
May
June

(NA)

. ..

64.5
10.5
21.1

46.2
46.2
53.8

9-month span

2

1-month span

9-month span

25.5
80.9
25.5

Z

42.3

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2nd quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no
adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 4 identifies the. components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated bv (5).
1

Based on 77 components through June 1967 and on 76 components thereafter.
Average for April 18, 19, and 22.

2




55

Table 3

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

APRIL 1968

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued

bed

Roughly Coincident Indexes

Year
and
month

D41. Number of employees in
nonagri cultural establishments
(30 industries)
1-month span

1966
January
February
March

81.7

6-month span

D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)

1-month span

D58. Index of wholesale prices
(22 manufacturing industries) ®

6-month span

1-month span

1-month span

76.1

9-month span

65*2
60.9

82.6
84.8
78.3

95.5
95*5
86.4

43.5
30.4
95.7

78.3
82.6
78.3

72.7
54.5
47.7

72.7
72.7
63.6

47.0
47*8
60.9

76.1
65.2
82.6

66.7
45.8
33.3

63.6
63.6
54.5

63.6
72.7
72.7

43.5
69.6
41.3

87.0
78.3
82.6

25.0
25.0
39.6

41.7
29.2
25.0

77.3
72.7
56.8

63.6
68.2
65.9

87.0
39.1
43.5

69.6
91.3
95.7

38.3
41.7
36.7

43.8
25.0
56.2

33.3
43.8
47.9

47.7
56.8
50.0

63.6
63.6
63.6

60,9
34.8
82.6

87.0
91.3
56.5

53.3
58.3
35.0

48.3
75.0
73.3

58.3
66.7
41.7

58.3
66.7
75.0

63.6
65.9
75.0

72.7
81.8
81.8

43.5
60.9
76.1

82.6
78.3
r82.6

75.0
91.7
78.3

r73.3
rS5.0
P93.3

56.2
83.3
83.3

r75.0
66.7
p70.8

72.7
77.3
90.9

81.8
90.9
95.5

37.0
67.4
47.8

r93.5
P95.7

88.3
95.0

95.0
91*7
83.3

70*8
70.6
9:1.7

95.8
91.7
79»2

79.5
75.0
72.7

April
May
June

80*0
75*0
93.3

81.7
81.7
73.3

72.9
.62.5
75*0

75.0
79.2
66.7

70.5
86.4
75.0

July
August
September

56.7
78.3
35.0

76.7
73.3
73.3

50.0
75.0
43*8

75.0
66.7
66.7

October
November
December
1967
January
February
March

81.7
76,7
70.0

85.0
65.0
65.0

72.9
56.2
50.0

71.7
43.3
43.3

55.0
41.7
43.3

April
May
June

40.0
41.7
71.7

July
August
September
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March

6- month span

D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)

63.3
r73.3
P53.3

r39.6
r70,8
P58.3

90.9
r84.1
68.2

88.6
• . .95*5 93.2

r73.9
r60.9
P78.3

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE' Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on the
4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table 4
identifies the components for the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by @.

56




bed

Table 3

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

APRIL 1968

LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes

Year
and
month

D35. Net sales, manufactures
(800 companies) ©

D36. New orders, durable manufactures (400 companies) ©

D48. Freight carloadings (19 manufactured
commodity groups) ©

D61. New plant and equipment
expenditures (18 industries)

4-quarter span

4-quarter span

4-quarter span

1-quarter span

Actual
1966
January
February
March

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Change in
total (000)

Actual

Anticipated

83*3

*88

*82

*83

52.6

78*9

72

*84

*68

*82

42*. 1

78^9

72

*84

*67

*8o

31.6

52^6

'&>

*65

*78

(NA)

78.9

*ai

70

'78

13.1

-91

(NA)

82

(NA)

*80

73.7

r-21

*84

63.9

-131

74

(NA)

-91

*70

50.0

IV 51

October
November
December

44-4

'+1

July
August
September

33.3

4-21

*84

41.7

61.1

84.2

50.0

30.6

57,9

65.6

55.6

*$9

37.5

75.0

*85

71.9

55.6

*91

62.5

83.3

*87

63*.2

April
May
June

1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June

*86

P47.2

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter indexes are
placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used for series D61. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Unadjusted series are indicated by @.




57

Table 4

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

APRIL 1968

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS
Basic Data and Direction of Change
1968

1967

Diffusion index components
August

November

October

September

January1"

December

March P

February

Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING I
(Average weekly hours)

+

All manufacturing industries

40.7
(74)

Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries

4

O
+
•f
+
44.
•f
•f
•f

Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products

4+
4-

r>
o
4+

41.9
39.7
40.2
41.6
41.0
41.5

+
4
+

42.2
40.4
42.5
41.2
39.4

4-

40.8
38 9
41,0
35.8
42.6

•f

4o
•f

•f
n
4-

+
•f
+

38.3 o
41.5 o
43.1
42.0
38.3 +

40.8

40.7 +

4D.8

40.7

40.2

(71)

4-

(29)

(79)

(33)

(14)

42.4
40.5 n
40.7
42.0 «.
41.0 +
41.8

41.7
40.5
40.4
41.8
41.3
41.4

41.9
41.2
40.5
42.1
41.6
41.4

40.4
38.6
39.5
40.8
41.5
41.4

42.7
40.2 442.7
41.2
39.5

42.3 440.5 +
41.5
41.1 o
39 4 4-

42.4
40.6
39.8
41.1
39.6

41,7
40.3
40,7
41.7
41.7
41.5
42.4
40.4
41.8
41.1
39.4

41.0
38 0 441.4
36.3
42.8 o

40.7
39 0
41.3
35.8
42.8

4-

40.8
38 8
41.5
36.3
42.8

38.3
41.5
42.4
41.9
38.9

38.0
41.5
43.0
41.9
38.7

4-

o
f
o

44.
444.
O

440

4+
4

38,2
41.9
43.1
41.8
39.5

4-

44O
4O

44-

-

40.7
36 8
41.6
36.2
43.1
38.0
41.8
42.1
41.3
38.4

4-

41.8
40.2
41.9
40.5
39 2

44-

4+
4.
4-

4

4-

37.5

4-

39.9
35.1
42,6
37,8
41*7
42,9
41,2
37,8

4+
4~
4
4

44-

41.9
41.2
40.8
41.8
41.8
41.4

r40.7
r40 4
r41.5
r36.4
42.8
r38,3
r41.8 r42.2 _
r41.5 o
r38.6 4.

44-

40.7

r42,l
r41.2 o
r40,9
r42.2
r41.7 4r41.2 4r42.2
r40.3 n
r41.8 4r40.8 o
i*39 7

4-

40.4
4-

40.7 o
(86)

4*

40,4
38 7
41.3
35.9
42.6

4

26,643

(29)

42.1
40.3
42.1
40.8
39 4

38.1
41.7
41.9
41.5
38.7

D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries

o

23,726

(38)

(65)

Primary metals
Blast furnaces steel mills.
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals.
Fabricated metal products
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Steam engines and turbines*.
Internal combustion engines*
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling*.
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment*
Machine shops.
Special industry machinery*
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery*

3,470
1,794

4

_
4

...

.,.
3,945

455

309

>

302

4-

668
327

4.

203

4.

4-

4->

4-

r4,314

4,013

2,322

(62)

(44)

2,936

4-

p2,238

2,313

289

...

.,,
4

3,807

3,875
J\

4-1
,/

>

303

4,

(HA)
44.

p3,574
1

p234

•-1
4-J

4.

662
244

4.

676
167

p565

4-

p285

+
4-

296

302
4

44
4.

4-

4-

4-

4-

44

44,

(HA)
(HA)

4-

4-

4-

(MA)
/-« , \
(MA)

4*

4

4-

...

O

4

712
223

3,805
(NA)

44,

4

,..

-J

*.

4«.

4

385

4

4-

4.

44.

»
4.

4

4-

622
240

4,120
2,394 «.

3,840
4-^

r24, 817

(41)

4-

...

3,588
4-"

4-

4-

4

3,679
-1
-I

24,771

(76)

2,334

...

26,492

+
4-

3,783
2,091

4

4
4.

4.

44*

44

2,246
4,

+

(65)

«.

4-

2,009

2,254

•H
•f

3,467
1,905

23,545

_

4-

-1

4-

(56)

3,612
1,971 «.

4.

4.

23,381

23,416

383

292

313
4-

4,

332
4

(M)

4

4,

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = = revised.
^•Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency.
2

Based on 34 components beginning September 1967.


58


Table 4

bed

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

APRIL 1968

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued
1968

1967

Diffusion index components
August

September

October

November

January

December

February

March

D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES^Continued
(Millions of dollars)
Electrical machinery
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment*
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment!
Electronic components.
Other electrical machinery*
Transportation equipment
Motor vehicle parts
.
Motor vehicle assembly operations
Complete aircraftt
Aircraft parts t
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment
Instruments total ....
Lumber total
Furniture total
Stone clav and class total
Other durable goods, total

+}
-H

3,640
794

'
_f
-f

3,554
638

j

3,569

3,315
722

"h

4?

»

689

—
4-

4-

-1
•H

4

4.

4

4-

4

-

4

4-

764

999

+
+

6,019

5,950

_

644

44.

5,673

6,241
NA
NA
4-

NA
NA
4
4-

736

4-

4

p8,517

44

4-

4

4

4

. (NA)

4-

-f

44.

4

_

(NA)

NA
NA

-

4

_

44

/MA \

O

r6,406

4
4-

4

4

»

WA
NA

4

4
+
4
4
4

p902

«*

NA
NA

4

4

(NA)

-1
-j

4

4-

4

-

+
4.

r665

r6,562

7,101
NA
NA

NA
NA
4-

..

r3,335
p3»530
r758 +1 p747
-)

4-

««
^
«*>

4

804

4.
o

659

4-

4

•

3,473
4"
_f

+
-.

4-

4,

+
4-

~

4-

_
-f

-

D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS2
(1941-43 = 10)
Index of 500 stock prices
Coal, bituminous
Food composite
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers) ...
Textile products
Paper
Publishing
Chemicals
Drugs
Oil composite
Building materials composite
Steel
Metal fabricating
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
Electronics .
Automobi les
Radio and television broadcasters

4

94.49
(78)

4

95.81

4-

-f

4

92.66

95.66
(32)

(57)

4-

(8)

4-

4
4*

4

95.04
(64)

(71)
4

4

4"

95.30

90.75

4

4,

4,

4

4
4
4

4
4
4
4
4.

4*
4

4*

4
4
4

4

4.

4
4.

4

4
4.
4*

•
«.

1

4
4.

4-

4

4

4,

44

4

Q

4

4-

4-

** *

4.

4-

•f

4
4.

4
4.

4

4

Telephone companies

4

Natural gas distributors
Retail stores composite
Life insurance

(21)

*
44
4

4

89.09

(10)

4
4-

4-

4

_
__

4•+

•

4-

4,

. ^

4

4,

*»

4-

4.

*w

«
• -»
4.
_

.
t
t

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers areheld confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
t These industries plus ordnance comprise series 99.
x
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted. The components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4.




59

Table 4

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

APRIL 1968

bed

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued
1968

1967

Diffusion index components
August

October

September

November

January

December

April1

March

February

D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES2

Industrial materials price
index (1957-59=100)

«.

98.1 „

97. 8

~

97.7 4

99.1

4

:
100.1 -

99*8 ~

99*5 4

100.1 »-

97.9

(Dollars)
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.).
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin (Ib.)
Zinc(lb.)
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops (Ib.)
Hides (Ib.i
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib.)
Tallow (Ib.)

(19)

(54)

Percent rising of 13 components

4.
4
4
4
4
4
4

'.382
.062
a? ,19$ 4 30,174
1.456
1,528
.140
.141
.139
.134
.237
.231 4
.193
.193
1.588
1.603
.152
.152
10.971 o 10.971
.200
.195
.050
.052
.335
.064

4
4
4
4
4
4

(46)
(46)
.452
.385 4
.061
.062
28.756 4 29.774
1.486 4 1.510
.139
.140
.133
.135
4
.254
,239
.193
.192 4
1,591
1.523
.159
.153 4
10.938
10.949
.171
.185
.046
.049

4

4
4

4*
4
4
4
4

(62)
.473
.060
29.723
1.547
.139
.132
.275
.195
1.553
.167
10.894
.177
.044

44
4

4
4

4

(46)
.494
.060
29. 840
1*496
.139
.129
.264
.198
1.563
.164
10.839
.171
.045

4
4
4
4

4
4

(46)
.514
.061
30.070
1*469
.139
.127
.254
.199
1.591
.154
10.796
.167
.042

4
4
4

4
4
4
4

(54)
.520
.062
26*136
1.500
.139
.125
.249
,198
1.640
*159
10.743
.174
.046

(42)
4

,406
.063

25.654
4
O
4

4
4

1.462
.140
.125
,244
.198
1.618
.152
10.711
.174
.048

D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS3
(Thousands)
Avg. weekly initial claims . . . 4

4

(72)

Percent rising of 47 components

Northeast region:
Boston (7)
Buffalo (20)
Newark (11)
New York (1)
Paterson (22)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (25)
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cinciflnati (21).. .
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26)
Detroit(S)
Indianapolis (23)
Kansas City (19).
Milwaukee (18)
Minneapolis (13)
St. Louis (8)
South region:
Atlanta (17)
Baltimore (12). . .
Dallas (15)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
Portland (24)
San Francisco (6)
Seattle (16)

215

4

4

(38)

"

4

4

4

«.

4

4
4

4

4

4
4

_

4
4

~

4

4

4

4

4

4
4

4

4

4
4

4

4

4

4
4

4
4

4
4
4-

4

4

»
*
_

4

_

4
4
_

4
4

4

4;

4

*,'
' ^

4

_

4
4

«,

4'
4

4

4

4

4

4

4
4
4

_

4
4

4

44

4

4

4
4

4

4

4
4
4

4

4

4

188
(26)

4

4
4

4

199
(SI)

4
4

4

4

4

4*

4

4

214
(26)

4

4^

4

198
(47)

(74)

4

+

4

4

4
4
4

4

201

4
4

4

4

209

4

4

4

O

(61)

4

4

209

M

4

__

•
l

'-f

• •

4

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1

Average for April 18, 19, and 22.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
The industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted. Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded.
3
The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises:
(-) = rising, (o)= unchanged, and (+) = falling.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before
the direction of change is determined.
Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month.
Directions of change are
shown separately for only the 26 largest labor market areas. The number following the area designation indicates its size rank.
2

Digitized for 60
FRASER


bed

Table 4

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

APRIL 1968

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change—Continued
1968

1967
Diffusion index components
September

August

October

January1*

December

November

March P

February

D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagri cultural establishments

;
4- , :'66*iStt; Hf; Si40$i ^>i * i p j •*£>; ^mt: y*»'1 $f,13S' o ;
; * i:
" ^si ^T^>
J
:

Percent rising of 30 components . . . . .
.....

Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures . . . .
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment

44-

4
4.
+
-f
4
4-

Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products.
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Mining

r>

44-

C§8):> r^

* 155 '
, §09

369
' 497'
1,024* :
1,048
1,375
1,290
1*410
285
337

1,148
72
339 i
1>223

4

401

4

4-

299

4*

O
444-

606
3,223
4,203
3,569
10,095
3,253
10,130
2,746
8,967

4,

444-

—
44
4

4

4.

+

--X - w?

;

(7S)

(&&$&.

; %

"^tof

; >

X-4tS^

(53)

-4*
'154 4» * " ^'3$^ *$
* >15S
^Vi60^ '0 '; :V ^fiSO' >4«> ' •-. " 161
/ ..$« ,4- > *3' '*'•'' ' 5-515' :V> • 520' 4, ; -\513': >4": '"rS^? 4*' > . S28
'386
383 4. ' ;^-3i7. fl *> ^3^
-\370 •4V V.-374' 4.- ^ 377 4.
" '?481' *>' "
470
' ' "'Jt3::
•
514
- *-494 - V s : <'500- 4, . ;; 505 •4lX
r
1,030
'l,'dGQ: •'4*-. -"'l»00$ 4~- .1,031
' i»<stf: ~4-/ T'1,030^ 4> 1,026
V;
;
1,057
\rl»0&
i,§a3 Vo .:": 1*024 4? •1,045' 4. 1,058 • 1,055
1,336 41,350
- ii&# 4^ i '' 1,372
Ir347 4... •' X,351
' ' I*3i5
*l*a&0 4* - * 1,^70 4,
1,290
1,293' 4. ' • 1|3894 ^- % rl,294
1,289 4,4,^ • rl,417 4
4.
4.
4,
i*a89
1*408
1,398
1,380
1,419
1,297
4.
-4.' - ,;^as3 4,
- 281
'286 O
284
2^ r» . T286
285
338
337 4- 334
343
343 O
,
335 •f
344
4
1,183
rl,l^) 4*
1,190
1,188 4»
1,185
1,189
41,175
78 «» :
- 72 477 470 474
69 4'
r73 4
r867 «.
862
848 4842 4855 4,
847 •f
855 ' O •
1,218 4,
1,227
41,221 4 rl,232
1,234
1,231 4;
1,223
r538
536 f>
537
' 536 4
' -527 4533 4*
531 4673
672
669 4*
671 4
673
669 O
r673 O
585 4*
r599
598 4 ,
597 4594 4597
595 4-

:

120
407
300
601
3,238
4,262
3,565
10*154
3>264
10*161
2,715
8,953

4*
4.

'121

408

O
4*

4,
4444*

303

4"

597

4*

O

3,236
4,251
3,567
10,209
3,270
10,199
2,712
9,033

44,
444*
44-

121
412
306
597
3,289
4,287
3,602
10,298
3,290
16,297
2,698
9,138

O
4444.
4-

4.
444-

V

4*' '

:

, 1 1 4.
2
414 O
307 O
598 0
3,353
4,290 4,
3,598 410,272 43,304 4*
10,332 42,708 4,
49,180

122414
307
598
3,175
4,294
3,609
10,306
3,308
10,358
2,721
9,257

O
4
O
44
4

4
44,

4
4

r!22

,4

r419

4-

^)7

r602
r3,46l
r4,321
r3,643
rl0,404
3,321
rlO,409
r2,?19
r9,307

O

123
420
306
602
3,442

4-

4,321
3,650
10,461
3,330
10,436
2,727
9,364

rl6l,5
(71)

4-

162.1

137.3
rl63.8

4

n
4
4
44
4-

INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(1957-59=100)

158.1

156.8

(67)

4

Percent rising of 24 components 2

Clay, glass, and lumber
Clay glass, and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous

4«

4-

D47.

Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products

4*

0

4-

Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products.
Fabricated metal products

"!

'-^i

:

" :fe) '

:<< < (;»y

4*'

113' •

0

Transportation and public utilities

All industrial production

«.
«

:

:: :

J

534
673
585

_

Retail trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government

£'• rfel^ftli ^H :W, ^5

:

(42)

4>

129.3
159.1 «.

129,2

4

158.1

4

_
182.6
183.2
171.9
183.2

182.1
182.4
159.2
183,1

136.9
109.2

4*

138.4
114.3

164.8
154.9

.4

4-

4

166,3
156,4

—
4,
O
4

4.

156,9
(56)

131.7
158.2
177.2
182.8
159.2
183.2

4.

139.7
117.0

4«.

166.6
155.0

4-

4
4

4
4+
4

_
.4-

4.

4

159,5
(83)

135.0
159.8
180.9
186,3
165.6
185.4

4-

161,2

162.0

4
4
_

44-

1*140.9 «.
rl62.4 4-

179,5
185.8
177.5
186.3

4

(40)

(83)

44-

4

137,0
162,5

4
4-

180.7
186.2
175.6
186.7

4-

140.8 •
rllS.l
***
171,3
158.9

_

44
*.

(58)

O

rl80.9 rl86,6 0
4,
175.8
_
185.1
4-

139,2
120.6

4-

167.8
155.1

4

4-

4

143.6
125,7
170.7
155.7

w

-»
4-

+

444

r!36.5
p!21.7
...
r!72,6
rl60.8

O

O
-

138
164
180
187
180
184
132
137
(HA)
...
173
160

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data
2

are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions
of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for the current month are rounded.




61

Table 4

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

bed

APRIL 1968

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued
1967

1968

Diffusion index components
August

October

September

December

November

January

March

February

D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION^Continued
(1957-59=100)
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather •
Texti le mi 1 1 products
Apparel products* •
Leather and products

•

4

4

4

138.7
14.6.4.
106.5

4*
4~

152 8
14&,6

4

Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products

4
4

200.7
133.2
203*1

4
4

Foods beverages and tobacco
Foods and beverages

4

Paper and printing.
Paper and products
Printing and publishing

Minerals:
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals

•• 4*

4
4>

141.3
146.8
108.4

4

152.9
145 4

4-

202.3
137.0
202.4

44

4

4

144.9
146.2
109.7

4

147.4

4

4
4-

148.6
113.3

44 -

154 5
144.3

4-

156 1
145.5

4-

205.5
137.6
199.1

4-.

4-

4
_.
4-

~

131.2
120.2

117.2
131.2

«.

115.5
127.5

—

95.6
136,5

105.7

136,6

Xk

*r

~

4- •

pl41
(HA)
(HI)
(HA) .

r!47.6 4
p!45.Q
p!09.9

157.0
144.1

pl54»E
rl43.3 4r

r!50.8 4
(HA)
r!4£ul 4

pl52
(HA)
p!47

4

203.0 4*
136.8 4,
207.5 4

r210,5 4.
1*138.0' -»
r215.4

r211*5 »
rl34.8 O
p206*7

r!97.1
p210.6
pl34*8
(HA)

pl97
(HA)
(HA)
(HA) .

132.2
118.0

4
«•

133.5
115.5

44

r!34.1 o
120.5

rl34*l
pU3»5

'132.2 O
pl33*7.
(»A)-

pl32
(HA)
(HA)

112.3
126.1
.».
93.8
132.9

4
4

115.3
126.4

4

«_

93.2
139.0

44

116.1
r!23.5
..
95.7
142.7

4>

131.7
121.4

rl40.9
P14&7
'(HA)
(HA)

r!51.6 ~
r!50.9
115.1

4

4

110. a

114.3
4* '
125.8 O ' 1*25.8
'*«*
* «.
rlOO.O 4- plOl.l
135.3 4. P143.9

44.
->.

44
4-

p!26
p!27
pl26
(HA)
(HA)

r!08.6

4

108.9

D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES2
(1957-59=100)
All manufacturing industries

o

106.8

4-

(66)

Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables. •
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products.
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products

106.1

4-

101.0

4-

4

104,5
103.5

4

118.9
105.5
114.2
113.6

4-

4
4*
44
4*
O
4

*~
*.
44

4
4

4-

4 .
4.

108.7
101.2
104,7
104.0
119.4
105.6
114.1
L14.0

4-

109. 7
101.5
101.5
110,2

112.1 4
98.8 4
102.9 «.
85.9 4107.3 4-

L12<7
99.2
L02.7
86.3
107. 4

104.0
98.0
104*6
97.8
114.4

4

L04.1
97.9
103. 9
98.2

O

,14.4

109.4
101*6
101.3
110,0

o

(75)

4*
4,

4

107.1

44*

4-

107.1

4-

44
-.
44
O
44

o
4
4

_
4
4
4
4
4
4
4

107.3
101.7
104.9
103.9
120.7
105.7
114.1
114.4
109.9
101.5
103.7
110.5

111.7
99.1
102.8
86.9
107.5
104.3
98.2
101.0
98.8
114-8

107.2

4

(77)

(73)

44
4*
44O
4
4
4
44

4—
4
4*
4- '
O

44

4

122.7
105.9
114.1
114,7

4

110.4
101.6
104.0
110.6

4

110.9
101,2
102,2
88.1
108.0

4
4-

115.4

108,1

4

4
4
4

4*
4
4

4
O
4

O
4
4
4
44
4

107.6
102.1
105.3
104.7
123.7
106.1
114.4
115.2

4
4
4-.'

44

111.5
104.2
102.2
88.6
108.1

4
4

104.8

4

4
4

44- 4

w

4
4-

.

4-

128*8
106.4
115.3
116.0

4

112.0
102.7
104.3
111.0

4

1 16 4 . 113*9
1.
103.6
103.3 4
106*9 4 107.3
105.8
105.5

125.1
106.2
114.7
115.4

4

4-

110.8
102.3
104.0
110.7

(68)

(S4)

108^6 4
103.0' 4
106.0 4
105.5 4

44

98.4
99.9
99.2
116.0

4

(91)

(91)

106.7
102.0
105.1
104.3

104.6
98.2
100.4
99.1

107.6

4

112.3
102.7
KL04.3
111.3

4

112.4
105.2
102.3,
89.3
108,3

4-

'105.2
98.2
98,8
99.5
116.5-

4'
4
4-

O
O
4

113.3'
105.0
102.8
89.6
108.8

4
44
4 ,
_
4
O
-4

•

105.7
98.1
99.5

99.5
116,7

4
O
4

O
4

O
4
*.
4

4
O
4
4

133.3
106.8
115.3
116.5

;m.7 '
102.6
104.3
111.5

112.9
105. 0
103.1
89.3
109.1
105. 2
9S.6
99.5
99.7
117.9

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted.


62


Table 4

bed

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

APRIL 1968

SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change—Continued
1968

1967
Diffusion index components
September

August

January1"

December

November

October

March?

February

D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1
(Mi 11 ions of dollars)
26,422

All retail sales

(61)

Grocery stores
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise) ..
Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel , accessory stores
Fami ly and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores ••

44*

2,094 4
2,341 4
222 4
516 O

4-

4

4

5,543

4

2,110
2,354
239
516

4

2,104
2,321
250508

4*

250

4

322
607

307
575

257
812
450
789
252

254
771
423
786
252

781

Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores

4,
4-

• • *\

4
4

424

4

767
258

4

O
4
4
4

(40)

5,584
2,133
2,371
239
533

4

4,731
322

2,003
913
597

4
4
4
4
4

4

4
4
4
~
~

5,666
2,144
2,367
231
529

4

O

4.

4
«

4

4-

4,361
346

4

_

4

454
774
247

...

4
4
4

4,331
361

4

4
4
4

...

4

2,064
928
601

4

...

912
600

4

-*.

4

- 2,173
2,388
241
526

4
4

4,

246
778
463
839
249

4

4

4
4
4-

4

*»*

r27,4B2i

261
789
469
819
265

p5,687
*»
4

4
4

p2,254
p2,477
p237
P530

^
4
4
4
4*

4
4

*.«

• **

4
4>

4*549
343

4
«*

4

2,095
954
633

4
«*.

«*»

—

***

4

4
4
m.

+

•»

'

28,009
(78)

44*
•4-

4
4
4>

(»A>
(Hi)
(NA)
(HA)
(HA)

4

t>330
p585

4 '
4-

(HA)
(HA)

4

p270
p835
p467
p917
p267

4-

4,355
323
2,017
949
586

4

(61)

4,

338
584

4

249
782

4-

5,743

4

2,015
4
4.

4»

4- ,

4-

4,891
333
2,028
901
599

27,065
(74)

304
559

324
578

4

4

•••••

4

26,470 4.

4

340
605

4

Other nondurable-goods stores

5,535

4

26,4H 4-

(67)

(37)

4

Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers.
Tire battery accessory dealers

•

4

26,089

4

4
4.

Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumberyards building materials dealers

Jewelry stores*

5,516

4

26,732
(76)

4

p4,7l6
p333
p2,117
p926
p625
, ***•
«##

•*.

4
4
4
^

(HA)
(HA)
(HA).
(HA)
(HA)

4
_

(HA)
(HA)

4

(HA)
(HA)
(HA)

4
4
4

...

-

**•

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (4)= rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.

•'•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.




63




Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months

Trough

Cycle

Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)

Business cycle reference dates

Expansion
(trough to
peak)

Trough from
previous
trough

Peak from
previous
peak

Peak

December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879

June 1857
October 1860
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873
March 1882

May 1885
April 1888
May.1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900

(x)

(x)
18
8
32
15
65

30
22
46
1
5
34
36

(X)
48
30
78
36
99

40
54
50
52
101

March 1887
July 1890
January 1893
December 1895
June 1899
September 1902

38
13
10
17
18
18

22
27
20
18
24
21

74
35
37
37
36
42

60
40
30
35
42
39

August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921

May 1907
January 1910
January 1913
August 1918
January 1920
May 1923

23
13
24
23
7
15

33
19
12
44
To
22

44
46
43
35
51
28

56
32
36
67
17
40

July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949

October 1926
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945
November 1948
July 1953

14
13
43
13
8
1
1

27
21
50
80
37
45

36
40
64
63
88
78

41
34
93
93
75
56

August 1954
April 1958
February 1961

July 1957
May 1960

13
9
9

35
25
(X)

58
44
34

48
34
(X)

Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961 . .
10 cycles, 1919-1961 . .
4 cycles, 1945-1961...

19
15
10

30
35
36

49
50
46

Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961 ..
8 cycles, 1919-1961 . . .
3 cycles, 1945-1961 . . .

20
16
10

26
28
32

45
45
42

149
54
46

2
3

*46
48
6
42

5

NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean War), the postwar contractions,and
the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
X
25
2

cycles, 1857-1960.
9 cycles, 1920-1960.

3
4
4

cycles, 1945-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.

5
7
6

cycles, 1920-1960.
3 cycles, 1945-1960.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.




65

Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS

Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning inSelected series

Feb.
1961

Apr.
1958

Aug.
1954

Oct.
1949

June
1938

Mar.
1933

Nov.
1927

July
1924

July
1921

LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers,
30.
38
6
10.
29.

Dec. '60
'61
'61
'61
'61
'60

Apr.
Mar.
Apr.
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.

'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58

Apr.
May
Mar.
Sep.
Mar.
Sep.

'54 Apr. '49
'54 July '49
'54 July '49
'53 June '49
'54 Apr. '49
'53 Jan. '49

Jan. '38 June '32 Apr. '28 July '24 Feb. '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC) May i 24 Jan. '21
Apr. '38 Mar. '33
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Dec. '37 Dec. '32 May ' 27 July '24 Dec. '20

Dec.
Dec.
Oct.
IstQ

Apr.
Apr.
Dec.
IstQ

'58 Nov.
'58 Feb.
'57 Sep.
'58 4thQ

'53 Apr. '49
'54 June '49
'53 June '49
'53 2ndQ '49

(NA)
(NA)
June '38 July '32
Apr. '38 June ' 32
2ndQ '38 3rdQ '32

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Aug. '28 June '24 July '21
(NSC)
Oct. '23 Aug. '21
4thQ '27 3rdQ '24 2ndQ '21

Jan. '61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54 May '49
Apr. '61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54 Jan. '49

Dec. '37 Apr. '32
Feb. '38 Feb. '32

Aug.

Nonagricultural placements, all industries. . . Jan.
Jan.
Index of net business formation
New orders durable goods industries ...... Jan.
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment. . . Mar.
New building permits, private housing units. . Dec.

31. Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories
23 Industrial materials prices
19. S(ock prices '500 common stocks
16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,
manufacturing
113. Change in consumer installment debt

'60
'60
'60
'61

'27
(NA)

June '24 Mar. '21
(NA)
(NA)

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri cultural establishments. Feb. '61 May '58 Aug. '54 Oct. '49 June '38 Mar. '33 Jan. '28 July '24 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
May ' 61 July '58 Sep. '54 Oct. '49 June '38 May '33
43. Unemployment rate total (inverted)
(NSC)
(NSC)
IstQ '61 IstQ '58 2ndQ '54 2ndQ '49. IstQ '38 3rdQ '32
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
4thQ '21
47.
52.
816
54

Industrial production
Personal income
Manufacturing and trade sales
Sales of retai 1 stores

Feb. '61
(NSC)
Jan. '61
Apr. '61

Apr.
Feb.
Mar.
Mar.

'58
'58
'58
'58

Apr.
Apr.
Aug.
Jan.

'54
'54
'54
'54

Oct. '49 May
July '49 May
Oct. '49
(NSC) May

'38
'3-8.
(NA)
'38

Nov.

(NA)

July '32 Nov. '27 July '24 Apr. '21
Mar. '33 4thQ '26 2ndQ '24 2ndQx ' 21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC) Mar. '22
(NSC)
Mar. '33

LAGGING INDICATORS
502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
15 weeks and over ( inverted)
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q)
71. Book value, manufacturing and trade
inventories
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans (Q)

July '61 Aug. '58 Oct. '54
2ndQ '61

3rdQ '58 IstQ '55

'49

4thQ '49

3rdQ '38

(NA)

IstQ '33
(NA)

'58

Oct. '54

Dec. '49

(NA)

Sep. '61 June '59

Sep. '55

July '50

June '40

July '58 Oct. '54 Aug. '49

Dec. '38

(NA)

IstQ '50

3rdQ '41

(NSC)

Mar. '61 Aug.

(NSC)

4thQ '61 2ndQ '58 IstQ '55

July '33

(NA)

(NA)

4thQ '27

(NA)

3rdQ '24 4thQ '21

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NSC)

(NSC)

Apr. '22

(NA)

(NA)

Feb. '28 Nov.

'24

(NA)
Sep. '22

NOTE: Specific trough dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a trough as distinguished from the reference dates which are those dates designated as
the trough of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 25 indicators on the NBER "short list," the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent
business cycles.
NA= Not available.


66


NSC= No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.

Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS-Continued

Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning inSelected series

May
1960

July
1957

July
1953

Nov.
1948

May
1937

Aug.
1929

Oct.
1926

May
1923

Jan.
1920

LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers,
June
manufacturing
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries. . . July
Apr.
38. Index of net business formation
6. New orders durable goods industries ... . Apr.
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment. . . Sep.
29. New building permits, private housing units. . Nov.
31. Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories
23. Industrial materials prices
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
16 Corporate orofits after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,
manufacturing
113 Change in consumer installment debt

Dec.
Nov.
July
2ndQ

'59
'59
'59
'59
'59
'58

Nov.
Nov.
Mar.
Dec.
Nov.
Feb.

'55 Mar. '53
'55 Feb. '53
'55 Sep. '52
'55 Jan. '53
'56 May ' 51
'55 Nov. '52

'59
'59
'59
'59

Apr.
Dec.
July
4thQ

'56
'55
'56
'55

June '59
Aug. '59

Oct. '55
Mar. '55

Jan.
Feb.
Jan.
2ndQ

(NSC)
Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22
(NA)
(NSC)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Apr. '46
(NSC)
Nov. '25 Jan. '23
Aug. '48 Dec. '36
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
June '48
Oct. '47 Feb. '37 Feb. '28 July '25 Jan. '24

(NA)
(NA)
'53 July '46
'51 Jan. '48 Mar. '37 Mar. '29
'53 June '48 Feb. '37 Sep. '29
'53 2ndQ '48 4thQ '36 3rdQ '29

Jan. '51 June '48 Mar. '37 July '29
Dec. '52 Mar. '48 Mar. '36 May ' 29

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July '19

(NA)
'25
(NSC)
3rdQ '26

(NA)
(NA)
Mar. '23 Apr. '20
Mar. '23 July '19
(NA)
2ndQ '23

Sep. '26
(NA)

June '22 Feb. '20
(NA)
(NA)

Nov.

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri cultural establishments* Apr. '60 Mar. '57 June '53 Sep. '48 July '37 Aug. '29 Jan. '26 June '23 Jan. '20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Feb. '60 Mar. '57 June ' 53 Jan. '48 July '37
43. Unemployment rate total (inverted)
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
IstQ '60 3rdQ '57 2ndQ '53 4thQ '48 3rdQ '37 3rdQ '29
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (0)
47.
52
816.
54

Industrial production
Personal income
Manufacturing and trade sales
Sales of retail stores

Jan. '60 Feb. '57
(NSC)
Aug. '57
Jan. '60 Feb. '57
Apr. '60 Aug. '57

July
Oct.
July
Mar.

'53 July '48 May ' 37 July '29 Mar. '27 May ' 23 Feb. '20
(NA)
'53 Oct. '48 June '37 Aug. '29 2ndQ '26 IstQ '24
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'53 Aug. '48
(NSC)
July '20
(NSC)
(NSC)
Sep. '37 Sep. '29
'53

LAGGING INDICATORS
502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
15 weeks and over ( inverted)
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q) . i
71. Book value, manufacturing and trade
inventories
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans (0)

' 60

Sep. '57

Oct. '53

Jan. '49

...2ndQ '60

3rdQ '57

3rdQ '53

4thQ '48

July '60

Sep. '57

Sep. '53 Feb. '49

May

4thQ '59

3rdQ '37
(NA)

(NA)

2ndQ '29

(NA)

4thQ '26

(NA)

(NA)

'48

Dec. '37

(NSC)

(NSC)

Sep. '57

July '53 Aug. '48

Sep. '37

(NA)

(NA)

4thQ '57

4thQ '53

Jan. '61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54 Nov.
(NSC)

(NA)

2ndQ '49

(NSC)

Oct. '29

Oct. '26

(NA)

(NA)

2ndQ '23

2ndQ '20

(NA)
Oct. '23 Nov.
(NA)

(NA)
'20

(NA)

Oct. '23 Feb. '21

NOTE: Specific peak dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a peak as distinguished from the reference dates which are those dates designated as.the
peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 25 indicators on the NBER "short list," the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
NA= Not available.




NSC^ No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.

67

Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Part 1,-^Average Percentage Changes

Monthly series

Average duration of run
(ADR)

w

Period
covered

Cl

T

c

T7C

for
MCD
span

MCD

Cl

1

C

MCD

MONTHLY SERIES
LEADING INDICATORS
*1. Average workweek of production workers, mfg
*30 Nonagricultural placements all industries
2 Accession rate manufacturing
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance

Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..

2.08
4.61

.40
1.66
4.37

.19
1.00
1.41

2.14
1.66
3.11

3
2
4

.73
.95
.80

2.20
2.00
2.17

1.49
1.57
1.53

9.78
9.78
11.73

4.05
3.65
3.53

Jan. '53-Sep. '67..

5.32

4.71

2.16

2.17

3

.75

1.73

1.48

12.57

3.95

3
*38
13.
*6.
94.

Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67-.
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..

9. 38
.81
2.54
3.62
6.42

8.57
.60
2.24
3.22
6.13

3.23
.55
.95
1.42
1.61

2.66
1.09
2.35
2.27
3.81

3
2
3
3
5

.86
.62
.83
.69
.79

2.12
2.89
1.85
1.78
1.57

1.48
1.57
1.56
1.59
1.45

8.00
7.33
8.38
8.80
9.26

4.58
4.61
3.16
4.24
3.44

Layoff rate manufacturing
Index of net business formation
New business incorporations
New orders, durable goods industries
Construction contracts, value

.46

*10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
Jan. '53-Sep. '6724. New orders, machinery and equipment industries . Jan. '53-Sep. '67"
.
9. Construction contracts, commercial
Jan. '53-Sep. '67- •
Jan. '59-Sep. '67-.

4.58
4.06

4.27
3.65

1.39
1.50

3.07
2.43

4
3

.85
.85

1.80
1.89

1.63
1.61

8.80
12.57

3.33
3.41

8.47
7.24

8.38
6.97

1.05
1.48

7.96
4.71

6
5

(x)
.92

1.52
1.63

1.47
1.51

13.54
8.67

3.00
2.78

Jan. '53-Sep. '67..

3.90

3.34

1.66

2.02

3

.66

1.93

1.56

12.57

3.28

Jan. '53-Sep. '67..

6.46

5.38

2.83

1.90

3

.75

2.35

1.61

7.65

3.70

Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .

4.99

4.53

1.88

2.41

3

.75

1.85

1.61

10.35

3.87

Jan. '53-Sep. '67..

7.42

5.73

4.04

1.42

2

.92

3.09

1.83

8.00

3.89

1.32
Jan; '53-Sep. '67. .
*23. Industrial materials prices
2.46
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
.63
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing. .... Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. 19.62
Jan. '53-Oct. '67. . 2.67

1.04
1.65
.51
19.11
2.05

.79
1.64
.28
1.92
1.41

1.30
1.01
1.84
9.95
1.46

2
2
3
6
2

.92
.56
.85
.91

2.55
2.44
2.48
1.53
2.59

2.15
1.60
1.71
1.44
1.57

11.73
9.78
6.07
8.80
6.29

3.80
4.38
4.24
2.37
3.11

37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
26. Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries

C1)

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
301 Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
46. Help-wanted advertising
511. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
*41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments
42. Total nonagricultural employment —

Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67- -

3.09
2.96
.43
.31
.35

1.71
1.79
.31
.14
.28

2.34
2.22
.30
.27
.20

.73
.80
1.03
.53
1.39

I
1
2
1
2

.73
.80
.52
.53
.74

3.74
2.98
2.75
4.89
2.17

1.74
1.48
1.54
1.57
1.53

12.57
7.65
11.73
19.56
29.33

3.74
2.98
5.00
4.89
3.89

*43 Unemployment rate total
45. Average weekly insured unemployment
rate, State programs
40. Unemployment rate, married males

Jan. '53-Sep. ' 6 7 - .

3.77

3.00

2.08

1.45

2

.75

2.67

1.52

8.00

3.98

Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '54-Sep. '67. .

4.18
5.89

2.34
4.91

3.13
3.14

.75
1.56

1
2

.75
.87

5.03
3.35

1.81
1.52

8.38
6.56

5.03
3.98

*47 Industrial production
Jan, '53-Sep. '67..
*52. Personal income
Jan. '53-Sep. '67-.
53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
Jan, '53-Sep. '67-.
*816 Manufacturing and trade sales
• Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .

.97
.54

.51
.26

.73
.48

.70
.54

1
1

.70
.54

3.52
5.33

1,64
1.54

11.73
25.14

3.52
5.33

.83
1.00

.50
.77

.63
.57

.80
1.35

1
2

.80
• 76

2.89
2.32

1.54 13.54
1.63 16.00

2.89
3.65

*54. Sales of retail stores
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
55. Wholesale prices, industrial
commodities
58 Wholesale prices manufactured goods

Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
Jan, '53-Sep, '67. .

.89
1.44

.76
.53

.47
1.28

1.62
.41

2
1

.93
.41

2.15
5.68

1.59 14.67
1.59 J.2.57

3.72
5.68

Jan, '53-Sep, '67. .
Jan. '53-Sep, '67. .

.17
.20

.11
.16

.13
.12

.84
1.26

1
2

.84
.79

4.09
3.26

1.66
1.80

9.26
10.35

4.09
4.49

114
116.
115.
117.

Jan. '53-Sep.
Jan. '59-Sep.
Jan. '53-Sep.
Jan. '53-Sep.

6.42
1.75
1.65
2.49

4.69
1.39
1.29
2.05

4.32
.94
.96
1.18

1.09
1.47
1.35
1.73

2
3
2
3

.71
.68
.94
.82

2.59
2.67
2.79
2.63

1.71
1.76
1.93
1.89

6.52
11.56
7.65
7.65

3.72
4.08
3.89
4.05

Treasury bill rate
Corporate bond yields.
Treasury bond yields
Municipal bond yields

'67..
'67«.
'67..
'67. .

See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 1.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
68
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 1.-Average Percentage Changes-Continued

Period
covered

Monthly series

ci

I

C

T/C

T/C
for
MCD
span

MCD

Average duration of run
(ADR)

CI

I

C

MCD

MONTHLY SERIES-Continued
LAGGING INDICATORS
*502. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
505. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories . . Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
.
65. Book value, manufacturers' inventories
of finished goods.
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .

6.26

5.03

1.77
.52

1.43
.18

.62

Jan. ' 53-Sep. '67 . .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 . .

2

.63

•4.09

1.56

6.77

5.65

.91
.49

1.57
.37

2
1

.80
.37

1.89
6.77

1.48
1.59

17.60
25.14

3.13
6.77

.29

.55

.53

1

.53

3.59

1.43

16.00

3.59

.59
.82

.46
.10

.32
.80

1.44
.13

2
1

.89
.13

2.48
13.54

1.64
1.64

6.07
25.14

4.07
13.54

Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
July'61-Sep. '67 ••

.97
.56

.50
.21

.82
.48

.62
.43

1
1

.62
.43

3.67
10.57

1.52
2.00

25.14
6.73

3.67
10.57

Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Oct. '67 • •

*62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
66. Consumer installment debt
*72. Commercial and indus. loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large commercial banks
118 Mortgage yields residential

1.26

.19
3.58

.12

.15
.90

.78
3.74

1
4

.78
.90

4.19
1.82

1.64
1.62

10.35
11.80

4.19
3.41

1.22 10.17
3.55
1.75
3.09
.87
9.74
1.37
2.00 13.04
1.74 12.25
2.61
7.98

6
4
4
6
6
6
6

C1)
.92
.73
(X)
(X)
(X)
C1)

1.44
1.60
1.79
1.44
1.43
1.56
1.48

1.37
1.51
1.62
1.47
1.46
1.48
1.43

11.80
9.14
11.80
8.50
9.33
8.80
9.78

2.35
2.84
3.48
2.06
1.96
2.44
2.59

3.98

SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL TIMING
81. Consumer prices
86. Exports, excluding military aid3
86L Export orders, durables except motor vehicles
and parts
862. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
87. General imports3
91. Defense Department obligations total
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement
99. New orders defense products industries
92. Military contract awards in U.S.

3.36

Oct. '62-Sep. '67 . . 12.55
Jan. '57-Sep. '67 •• 6.44
J an. '53-Oct. '67 •• 2.87
July '53-Sep. '67 . . 13.58
Jan.'56-Sep.'67.- 26.22
Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. 21.39
Jan. '53-Sep. '67- • 20.91

SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL TIMING
AND ECONOMIC PROCESS
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, durable goods. .
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of consumer goods
855. Ratio, nonagri cultural job openings unfilled to
number of persons unemployed
856. Ratio, average hourly earnings of production
workers in manufacturing to consumer prices.

12.43
6.23
2.69
13.32
26.08
21.27
20.82

Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..

.99
2.04

.85
1.77

.46
.96

1.84
1.84

2
3

.95
.72

2.84
2.05

1.54
1.57

8.80
11.00

4.61
4.35

Jan. ' 53-Sep. '67..

.93

.60

.65

.93

I

.93

2.84

1.63

9.26

2.84

4.15

.80

1

.80

3.26

1.52

8.38

3.26

Jan. '53-Sep. '67- .

5.54

J an. '53-Sep. '67- •

.36

.30

.18

1.67

2

.92

2.38

1.60

19.56

3.72

Jan. '53-Sep. '67 • •
Jan. '53-Sep. '67- •
. Jan. '53-Sep. '67-.
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 • •
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 • •
Jan. '53-Sep. '67- •
Jan. '53-Sep, '67- •

.81
1.04
.82
1.19
1.44
1.69
1.43

.67
.98
.74
1.07
1.32
1.17
1.28

.55
.37
.47
.62
.60
1.23
.72

1.21
2.63
1.58
1.71
2.20
.95
1.78

2
3
2
2
3
1
2

.56
.94
.75
.87
.63
.95
.98

^.29
2.38
3.45
3.45
2.29
3.59
2.79

1.41
1.45
1.44
1.48
1,48
1.39
1.66

10.35
8.80
25.14
16.00
16.00
13.54
29.33

6.48
4.14
6.25
9.21
4.97
3.59
4.07

.25
.45
.52
.32
.81
.33

.31
.49
.44
.36
.74
.35

.19
.27
.39
.22
.38
.31

1.66
1.82
1.14
1.65
1.95
1.14

2
3
2
3
3
2

.93
.73
.59
.75
.69
.61

9.26
6.29
7.04
8.00
3.09
19.56

2.00
1.68
1.54
1.98
1.64
1.80

11.00
14.67
8.80
11.73
10.35
8.38

12.50
8.70
7.61
11.60
6.96
25.00

2.77
3.13
4.00
3.34
3.60
3.7ft

2.13
2.49
3.35
2.03
2.44
3.00

1.61
1.68
1.87
2.37
2.29
1.89

1.33
1.48
1.79
.86
1.07
1 .59

2
2
3

.87
.90
.66
.86
.64
.7?

1.78
1.71
1.68
1.85
1.68
1 .#5

11.00
8.00
7.33
7.33
7.04
#.#0

3.98
3.72
4.14
3.52
4.49
5. IP

3.33

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
123.
122.
121.
126.
125.
128.
127.

Canada, industrial production
United Kingdom, industrial production
OECD European countries, industrial production. .
France, industrial production
West Germany, industrial production
Japan, industrial production
Italy, industrial production.

133.
132.
136.
135.
138.
137.

Canada, consumer prices
United Kingdom, consumer prices
France, consumer prices
West Germany, consumer prices
Japan consumer prices
Italy, consumer prices

143.
142
146.
145
148
147.

Canada, stock prices
United Kingdom stock prices
France, stock prices
West Germany stock prices
Japan stock prices
Italv. stock orices

Jan. '53-Sep. '67 . .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 . .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 . .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 . .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
J an. '53-Sep. '67 ••
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 • •
Jan. '53-Sep. '67- •
•• Jan. '53-Sep. '67- •
Jan. '53-Sep. '67-.
Ian 'R3-SerL 'fi7 ..

1
2
3

3.26
2.63
2.48
3.52
3.26
? . AA

See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 1.




69

Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 1.—Average Percentage Changes—Continued
Period
covered

Quarterly series

Cl

1

C

I/C

1 /O
I/C
for
QCD
span

QCD

Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl

1

C

.67
.69

3.05
3.05

1.29

3.41

1 OQ
-L • <L s

/ £-2
*+• . O-2

3 »U J

2.5'2
2.64
2.23

1.26
1.32
1.29

5.27
3.87
3.62

2.52
2.64
2.23

8.29
6.44
11.60
5.80

6.44
3.41

4.14

1.35
1.29
1.18
1.32

QCD

QUARTERLY SERIES
LEADING INDICATORS
IQ'53-IIIQ'67o....
IQ'53-MIQ'67

9.31
5.16

4.62
2.77

6.89
3.99

.67
.69

l

IQ'53-IIIQ'67
IQ'53-HIQ'67
IQ'53-MIQ'67

11. New capital appropriations manufacturing
*16 Corporate profits after taxes
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries
18. Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing
110. Total private borrowing

4.08
5.59

2.54
3.41
6.17

2.95
3.67
8.16

.86
.93
.76

1
1
1

.86
.93
.76

10.95

3.05
? 0*5

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
49.
*50.
57.
97.

GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Final sales
Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing.

IQ'53-IIIQ'67
IQ'53-IIIQ'67
IQ'53-IIIQ'67
| !Q'53-IIIQ'67. f ...

1.54
1.23
1.40
5.36

.34
.33
.32
.84

1.46
1.11
1.37
5.21

.23
.30
.24
.16

1
1
l
l

.23
.30
.24
.16

IQ'53-IIIQ'67

3.13

.74

2.91

.26

1

.26

5.80

1.41

5.80

5.80

IQ'53-IIIQ'67
IQ'53-NIQ'67

2.23

2.05

.58
.50

l
1

.58
.50

3.05
2.64

1.23
1.49

4.46
3.62

3.05
2.64

951. Fed. receipts, nat'l income and product acct. . . .IQ'53-IVQ'67
952. Fed. expenditures, nat'l income and product acct. IQ'53-IVQ'67
101. National defense purchases, current dollars
IQ'53-WQ'67

2.47
2.13
2.33

.87
.91
.82

2.25
1.88
1.99

.39
.49
.41

l
1
1

.39
.49
.41

3.47
3.93
2.76

1.44
1.26
1.23

5.90
5.36
4.83

3.47
3.93
2.76

IQ'53-IIIQ'67

2.18

.85

1.77

.48

1

.48

2.90

1.41

3.87

2.90

lO'R^ IllO'fiV

8.50
3.78

2
1

.52
.90

1.57
2.09

1.29
1.44

3.62
3.29

3.17
2.09

6.44
3.41

11.60

11.60
4.14

LAGGING INDICATORS
*61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment
68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross product
(1958 dol.), nonfinancial corporations
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans

.88

.42
1.02

.72

SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL TIMING

SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL TIMING
AND ECONOMIC PROCESS
850. Ratio, output to capacity, mfg
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing

IQ'56-IIIQ'67

6.66
2.21

4.57
2.47

1.46

.90

*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators.
-"-Not shown for series when MOD is "6" or more.
2
3
Bimonthly series; average percentage changes, MOD and average durations of run are for "bimonthly spans.
Measures based
on data adjusted for abnormalities during the periods December 1962-March 1963 and December 1964-May 1965 due to effects of
strikes.

BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1

The following are brief definitions of the measures shown
in part 1 of this table. More complete explanations appear in
Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius
Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau
of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of
Business, October 1957).
"CIW is the average month-to-month (or quarter-toquarter) percentage change, without regard to sign, in the
seasonally adjusted series.
"T" is the same for the irregular component, obtained by
dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted
series.
"C* is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth,
flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe



cyclical movements in a montmy series. It is small for smooth
series and large for irregular series. In deriving MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the irregular
component and the cyclical component over 1-month spans
(Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar., Feb.Apr., etc.), up to 12-month spans. Averages, without regard
to sign, are then computed for the changes over each span.
MCD is the shortest span in months for which the average
percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical
component is larger than the average percentage change
(without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and
remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations
in the seasonally adjusted series become dominated by
cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with an
MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of the appropriate
time span over which to observe cyclical movements in
quarterly series. It is the shortest span (in quarters) for
which the average percentage change (without regard to sign)

BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PARTI—Continued
in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the irregular
component, and remains so.
"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values)
or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted series.
For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month spans and for
spans of the period of MOD. When MCD is "6", nq_I/C ratio is
shown for the MCD period. For quarterly series, I/C is shown
for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2 months, a change
in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The
ADR is shown for the seasonally ad justed series CI, irregular
component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The
MCD curve is an unweighted moving average (with the number
of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally ad justed series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the

changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1-month
intervals in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is
1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about
95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving
average (MCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR
is 2.0. For example, the ADR of CI is 1.73 for the series on
average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance
(series 5). This indicates that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the average, reverse sign about
as often as expected in a random series. The ADR measures
shown in the next two columns, 1.48 for I and 12.57 for C,
suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been
successfully separated into an essentially random component
and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. Finally, ADR is 3.95
for the MCD moving average. This indicates that a 2-month
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series (2 months
being the MCD span) reverses direction, on the average,
about every 4 months. The increase in the ADR from 1.48
for CI to 3.95 for the MCD moving average indicates that,
for this series, month-to-month changes in the MCD moving
average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements of the series, whereas the month-to-month changes in
the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.

Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 2.—Average Unit Changes
~F/o~
I/C

Monthly series

Period
covered

Unit of
measure

CI

C

1

I/C

MCD

for
MCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR")
\r\\J\\]

CI

1

C

MCD

MONTHLY SERIES
LEADING INDICATORS
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories

Jan.'53-Sep. '67.

Ann. rate
bil.doL

3.79
20. Change in book value of manufacturers'
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. . . . do. . . 1.51
inventories of materials supplies
.50
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods industries. Jan. '53-Sep. '67. Bil. dol. .
98. Change in money supply and time deposits .... Jan. '53-Sep. "'67. Ann. rate,
2.49
percent .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. ... do. . .
2.89
85. Change in U S money supply
Jan. '55-Sep. '67. Ann. rate
33. Change in mortgage debt
1.34
bil. dol..
Jan.'53-Sep. '67 - . . . do. . . .86
*113. Change in consumer installment debt
Aug. '59-Sep. '67. . . . do. . . 2.77
112. Change in business loans

3.67

.77

4.78

5

.96

1.53

1.45

6.29

2.65

1.45
.47

.29
.13

5.04
3.63

6
5

t1)
.80

1.63
1.69

1.54
1.60

6.52
8.00

2.95
3.44

2.49
2.92

.33
.37

7.45
7.88

6
6

(X)

1.47
1.44

1.40 11.00
1.42 11.00

2.85
2.85

1.26

.37
.30
.28

3.43
2.64
9.78

3
3
6

.98
.90

C)

1.49
1.64
1.56

1.35 10.13
1.48 11.00
1.56 10.78

2.94
3.16
3.83

1.61

2

.96

2.07

1.59

9.26

3.13

15.55 -3.58

4

.86

1.62

1.57

9.32

3.55

.78

2.72

C1)
1

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
93. Free reserves

Jan. '53-Sep. '67 • Mil. dol. .

93.44

75.38 46.88

SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL TIMING
88. Merchandise trade balance 2.

Jan. '53-Oct. '67.

. . . do. . . 57.74 55.59

See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 2.




71

Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 2.-Average Unit Changes-Continued

1/c
Period
covered

Quarterly series

Unit of
measure

Cl

c

1

T/c

QCD

Average duration of run
(ADR)

for
QCD
span

Cl

1

C

QCD

QUARTERLY SERIES
LEADING INDICATORS
21. Change in business inventories, all
industries

IQ'53-IIIQ'67..

Ann. rate,
bil.dol..

2.59

1.69

1.50

1.12

2

.49

1.76

1.35

4.46

3.00

IQ'53-IIIQ'67 ••
IQ'60-IIIQ'67 ..

Mil. dol... 307.88 213.76 199.96 1.07
...do... 57^-37 340.19 324.11 1.05

2
2

.48
.66

1.71
1.88

1.26
1.50

3.05
2.50

2.71
2.07

IQ'53-INQ'67 ••

Ann. rate,
bil.dol..

1

.68

2.23

1.38

3.62

2.23

SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL TIMING
89. U.S. balance of payments:
b Official settlements basis
95. Fed. balance nat'l. income and product acct

2.61

1.36

2.00

.68

1

*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators.
Not shown for series when MCD is "6" or more.
2
Measures based on data adjusted for abnormalities during the periods December 1962-MarcJi 1963 and December 1964-May 1965 due
to effects of strikes.-

BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2
The measures in part 2 are computed by an additive
method to avoid the distortion caused by zero and negative
data.
Thus, "CI" is the average month-to-month (or quarterto-quarter) change in the seasonally adjusted series. This
average is computed without regard to sign and is expressed
in the same unit of measure as the series itself.

72



"C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
T is the same for the irregular component, which is
determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the
seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures shown in part 2 have the same meaning
as in part 1.

Appendix D.--CURRENT ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES (MAY 1967 TO JUNE 1968)

19 68

1967
Series

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment
insurance
13. New business incorporations1

79.2 81 2 107 7 84 1 73 7
106.1 104.4
94.6 98.1 89.5

14 Liabilities of business failures
18. Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing2.

100.4 120.0
106.1

30 Nonagricultural placements all industries1
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies 3

113.1 110.3

37. Purchased materials, percent of companies
reporting higher inventories
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total
installment loans^ .
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement

+41

+256

104.5 101.1

94.4 119.5 102.9
96.7

Oct.

Nov.

+152

99.2 100.3

+34

97.6

85.2 81 8 101 5
100.3

-58

91.3

98.8

92 1

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

84 3 101.9 138 5 145 8 112 7 96 0 94 9 79 3
95.7 87.3 96.5 118.7
99 '.4 108.6 105.3 106.1

June

80 9
97.3

89 6

98 2 110 1 99 6 97 3
97.9
105.4

119 8

79 4

84.1

83 5

88 7 103 4 111 7

106 8

-129

+279

-285

-388

+36

+262

92 2

90 9 100 1 102 2 107 6 112 8 104 2

100 9

100.7 113.6 116.3 113.9 96 6
+38

Dec.

98.8

+50

92.6

110.1

107.2

+13

91.8

99.9 100.7
100 2 203 6

99.0
64 0

98.8 100.1
98 4 108 7

99.2 99.9 101.5
98 7 79 0 101 6

91 Defense Department obligations total
92. Military contract awards in U.S

91 9 151 6
90 1 184.2

98.6
94.4

96.9 107.0
90.7 111.5

98 4 87.6
94.3 80 2

112 Change in business loans 5
301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled

100.2 100.2
119.9 103.2

99.6 99.2 99.4 99 6 99.8 100.6 100.1
99.7 112.4 111.9 105.7 94.6 80 7 84.1

856. Ratio, average earnings to consumer prices

100.3 100.0

99.6

98.9

99.9

100.2 100.3

99.9

862 Index of export orders nonelectr ical machinery
D34 Profits manufacturing (FNCB) 6

100 4 100 8

94 4

94 4

94 3 103 9 100.2 100.3 103.8 102.1 107.4 100.6 100.3

100.2

-9

99.7 100.1
+6

99.2
75 6

98 1 91 5
91 5 93 0

99.4 101.1 99.6 99.5
65 1 100 9 103 6 100 4

101.8
204 0

91 8
91.8

151 9
188 0

99.4 100.3 100.1 99.9
85 5 95.3 108.4 119.2

100.4
102.5

79 2
80 4

99 3
94 2

100.4 100.4 100.4 100.1
-15

99 6
88 6

+17

NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census or the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever
they are published. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-11 Variant of the Census Method
I Seasonal Adjustment Program.
I
1
Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained "by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors due to
rounding.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3f
lhese quantities, in millions of dollars, are to "be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly
totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census
Method 31 seasonal adjustment program.
^Bimonthly series. Data are for even-numbered months (February, April, June, etc.).
5
Factors apply to monthly totals before month-to-month changes are computed.
6
l-quarter diffusion index: Figures are placed on the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed
and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, are
subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.




73

Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: 1920 TO 1961

Percent change: Reference peak to reference trough
Contractions:
Reference peak to
reference trough

Jan.
May
Oct.
Aug.
May

1920-July
1923-July
1926-Nov.
1929-Mar.
1937-June

1921
1924
1927
1933
1938

Feb
Nov
July
July
May

1945-Oct
1948-Oct
1953-Aug
1957- Apr
1960-Feb

1945^
1949
1954 5 .
1958
1961

Median:6
All contractions
Excluding postwar contractions .
4 contractions since 1948 • • •

*41. Em-

ployees
in nonagri. establishments

*47. Index
of industrial
production

*50. GNP
in 1958

dollars
(Q)

1

49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)1

*52. Per-

sonal
income

*816. Manufacturing
and trade
sales

*43. Unemployment rate, total

*54. Sales
of retail
stores

2

2

2

2

2

-49.6
-11.9

-43.5
-17.3

+7.9
+2.3
2
+2.2
+ 25.4
+8.8

(NA)
-1.6
-2.2
-3.4
-1.4

-10.9
-3.4
-0.8
-1.8
-0.2

-4.0
-4.7
0.0
+0.2
+0.9

(NA)
-7.5
-7.2
-6.8
-3.1

+8.6
-0.5
-0.5
-2.4
-2.7

+ 2.2
+4.1
+ 3.4
+3.2
+1.8

-1.9
-2.1
-1.9

-2.8
-2.8
-1.3

-2.0
-2.4
+ 0.1

-7.0
-5.8
-7.0

-2.2
-2.6
-1.4

+3.3
+3.6
+ 3.3

(NA)
-0.3
+ 2.3
-28.0
-8.9

-7.9
-5.1
-3.4
-4.0
-1.8

-31.4
-8.5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.7

-5.7
-6.5
-3.7

-16.0
-16.0
-8.8

*47. Index
of industrial
production

Rate at
trough

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

-31.6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31.7

*41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments

Rate at
peak

-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-31.6
-10.4

-19.7
-2.3
+0.4

-4.3
-1.9
0.0

*50. GNP
in 1958

dollars
(Q)

1

49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)

*52. Per-

sonal
income

1

*816. Manufacturing
and trade
sales

4.0
3.2
2
1.9

11.9
*5..5
2
4.1

0.0
11.2

25.4
20.0

1.1
3.8
2.6
4.2
5.1

3.3
7.9
6.0
7.4
6.9

3.5
3.9
4.0

7.2
7.6
7.2

3

3

*43. Unemployment rate, total

Percent change: Reference trough to reference peak
Expansions:
Reference trough to
reference peak

Change
in rate,
peak to
trough

*54. Sales
of retail
stores

Change
in rate,
trough
to peak

Rate at
trough

July
July
Nov
Mar'
June

1921-May
1924-Oct
1927-Aug
1933-May
1938-Feb.

1923
1926
1929
1937
19454

(NA}
(NA)
(NA)
+40.2
+45.9

+64.2
+30.4
+ 24.1
+119.9
+183.3

(NA)
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
(NA)

+ 25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6

+ 29.6
+ 13.2
+ 12.2
+76.3
+157.3

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

+ 15.7
+9.9
+3.6
+69.2
+105.4

-8.7
-3.6
2
-0.9
-14.2
-18.9

Oct
Oct*
Aug
Apr

1945-Nov
1949-July
1954-July
1958-May

1948
19535
1957
1960

+17.2
+17.8
+8.9
+6.9

+ 21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+ 25.2

+3.3
+ 28.8
+11.8
+11.4

+34.9
+44.1
+ 22.4
+15.1

+28.5
+41.4
+22.1
+ 13.3

(NA)
+50.0
+ 22.6
+ 16.2

+63.8
+ 25.6
+ 20.3
+11.9

+0.3
-5.3
-1.8
-2.3

3.3
7.9
6.0
7.4

+17.5
+13.0
+13.0

+ 35.2
+26.6 •
+ 23.6

+12.3
+12.1
+11.6

+ 27.5
+ 20.9
+ 28.6

+26.7
+21.3
+ 25.3

+ 29.6
+19.4
(NA)

+ 20.5
+16.0
+ 23.0

-3.7
-2.6
-2.0

7.1
6.3
6.7

Median: 6
All expansions
Excluding wartime expansions . .

2

2

2

11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0

Rate at
peak

2

3.2
1.9
3.2
11.2
1.1
2

2 3

3

3.6
2.6
4.2
5.1

3.3
3.7
3.9

NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD)of u r or "2" (series41,43,47,52,and816), the figure for the reference peak (trough) month is used as the
base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base
for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list"of 25
indicators.
NA=Not available.
-"-The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st quarter
1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER) vol. 1, p.670.
2
Based on average for the calendar year.
3
Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
^World War II contraction or expansion period.
5
Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median Is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
Source:

National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

74



Appendix F-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
This appendix contains historical data for Business Cycle Developments series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data
are published in this appendix for: (a) new series which have been added to Business Cycle Developments, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (cVseries which
have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the Index, Series Finding Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published.
Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ^(indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title.

Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

May

Apr.

June

Aug.

July

Sept.

Oct.

Dec.

Nov.

5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (Thousands)

344

168
238
322

194
234
175
251
315

200
210
169
298
276

197
213
190
280
253

233
224
235
363
291

204
236
305
338
271

224
214
302
314
311

215
223
320
311
351

214
230
355
320
275

335
348
303
281
260

363
316
305
290
244

351
329
300
285
245

373
304
304
282
249

385
305
299
276
262

381
296
310
301
251

231
230

248
196

218
183

209
186

212
194

206
212

360
163
193
202

359

194
. 340

385

375
191
179
218
320

250
199
213
198
313

252
209
242
195
314

223
236
315
207
294

170
254

182
242

207
229
319

228
223
239
438
244

222
236
244
400
246

222
227
246
410
258

223
245
267
350
264

303
379
287
288
277

294
381
283
293
265

316
358
301
288
262

322
334
304
284
257

237
182

237
179

224
185

224
186

16
134
121
166
285

26
225
174
206
305

28
192
185
201

1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....

294
174
221
175
303

1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....

43
220
235
239
377

70
206
219
219

333

34
205
207
210
379

288
181
201
177
318

276
166
209
188
320

263
199
219
179
313

256
218
242
354
292

240
226
225
407
284

228
221
219
436
258

1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....

281
393
301
310
284

271
429
295
301
270

1965 ....
1966 ....

243
222

248
219

248

185
211
172
234
298

72
171
229

1945 ....
1946 ....
1947 ....
1948 ....
1949 ....

181

163
203
386

220
178
172
211

30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (Thousands)

1945 ....
1946 ....
1947 ....
1948
1949 ....

1,294
493
439
465
389

1,188

1,074

470
460
448
369

473
444
448
357

959
467
421
463
375

901
430
426
467
376

955
449
415
471
363

935
481
416
455
358

457
429
439
382

528
443
442
444
376

510
464
446
435
370

490
457
479
430
358

485
442
476
404
382

1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....

371
569
547
563
425

388
574
527
580
426

404
572
526
569
421

420
557
550
548
425

441
553
537
548
419

453
546
538
551
420

477
557
521
541
427

527
539
530
520
422

515
532
544
497
432

530
523
554
482
433

545
528
556
464
446

520
532
555
447
463

1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....

482
510
505
419
484

^81
503
508
409
493

492
514
498
395
511

490
517
485
401
517

500
514
486
409
521

496
511
489
415
516

503
494
492
421
521

520
498
473
434
508

515
502
466
440
508

521
506
459
445
499

523
502
441
460
509

520
502
429
476
508

1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....

518
444
557
552
534

519
447
557
554
532

501
459
569
555
523

512
448
569
557
522

490
469
586
546
529

481
494
561
545
518

475
493
557
541
523

472
512
553
543
507

476
507
551
554
518

471
524
557
575
514

453
540
565
533
533

459
551
543
525
524

1965 ....
1966 ....

522
570

549
600

528
589

535
522

533
513

548
567

541
542

537
543

529
509

547
533

544
530

563
524

NOTE:

701

Series 5 contains no revisions, but data not previously shown for 1945 through 1947 have been added.
Series 30 is revised for the period 1945 through 1949 and for September 1963.




(April

1968)

75

Appendix F-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for Business Cycle Developments series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data
are published in this appendix for: (a) new series which have been added to Business Cycle Developments, fb) series which have been revised recently, and'fcV series which
have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the Index, Series Finding Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published.
Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol (^(indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title.

Year

Feb.

Jan.

Mar.

May

Apr.

June

July

Aug.

Oct.

Sept.

Dec.

Nov.

38. Index of net business formation (1957-59=100)

1945 ....
1946 ....
1947 ....
1948 ....
1949 ....

137.2
105.8

132.8
101.1

1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....

97.7
102. 4
105.7
108.6
97.3

1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....

...

116.2
94.8

110.9
97.0

111.8
98.8

102.0
103.2
109.9
99.5
101.4

101.8
103.9
109.5
99.5
103.1

102.6
105.5
108.7
97.8
103.7

101.4
104.7
108.4
98.7
103.6

107.6
102.1
98.1
99.6
103.9

107.7
101.0
97.6
100.7
103.7

106.4
102.2
96.7
100.9
103.1

106.4
100.5
96.1
101.6
104.6

105.8
100.9
94.4
102.4
104.7

99.9
95.7
97.7
100.7
103.5

98.3
94.7
98.4
101.7
103.9

97.8
94.8
98.5
101.4
106.4

97.4
96.3
98.5
101.7
107.0

94.8
97.3
98.0
101.4
105.4

94.3
97.3
98.3
101.8
106.1

106.5
104.8

105.7
103.9

106.1
102.7

105.5
103.3

106.1
100.6

106.9
101.4

...

...

...

119.7
92.9

...
116.9
95.0

103.7
101.7
106.9
103.5
99.5

102.6
101.3
109.8
103.2
100.9

108.7
103.1
99.8
95.9
104.2

108.6
102.6
99.2
97.4
104.0

100.5
95.8
97.8
99.6
105.4

100.6
96.1
97.6
100.0
103.6

105.4
106.8

106.2
106.2

...

125.3
94.3

121.0
91.9

103.5
101.6
108.1
104.8
98.5

105.0
101.1
109.2
103.2
98.8

108.0
104.4
99.6
92.4
106.4

108.1
104.4
99.1
95.2
105.5

102.4
95.1
98.1
100.5
103.1

102.4
95.5
97.8
99.2
104.2

106.1
109.6

104.7
107.6

. ..

128.7
97.2

129.3
97.2

127.6
94.4

100.5
102.9
106.2
108.4
96.5"

102.2
104.4
106.9
107.5
96.1

104.3
101.1
106.1
107.6
98.3

107.0
105.7
99.6
94.0
10^.3

108.7
105.9
99.4
93.0
104.. 7

108.8
105.7
99.8
92.5
105.9

1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....

105.3
92.4
97.2
98.9
102.4

103.7
94.1
97.8
100.2
103.1

1965 ....
1966 ....

106.5
109.1

106.6
109.6

...
...

...

...

...

...

*»•

.. .

...

...

...
.. .
...

.. .

.. .

61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Annual rate, billion dollars)

1945 ....
1946 ....
1947 ....
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
1960 ....
1961
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....

...
...
...
...

.. .
19.70
22.35
21.05

...

18.40
23.75
27.05
27.85
27.45

.. •

...
...

...

.. .
...
...

NOTE:

...
...
•••

...
.. .
...

...
...
...

19.25
25.45
26.55
28.10
26.90

25.65
32.80
36.90
32.40
30.60

...
.. .
...
...

.. .
.. .
• .. .

35.15
33.85
35.70
36.95
42.55

...
...
.. .
...
...

...
...
...
...

...

...

.. .
20.30
21.80
19.70

49.00
58.00

1965 ....
1966 ....

.. .
...
.. .

27.20
34.50
37.05
30.30
32.50
36.30
33.50
36.95
38.05
43.50
50.35
60.10

.. .
.. .
.. .

.. .

...

...

.. .
21.05
21.95
18.85

...
...

...
...
...
...

21.05
26.50
25.65
28.80
26.85

.. .

...

...
...
...

.. .

.. .

.. .
.. .

.. .

...
...
...
...

.. .

...
...

...
...

...

...

29.65
35.85
37.75
29.60
33.35

.. .

...

...

.. .

.. .

...

...

...

.. .
.. .

...
...

...

...
...

.. .

.. .

...

35.90
34.70
38.35
40.00
45.65

...

...

...

52.75
61.25

...

...

...

.. .
.. .

.. .
21.35
22.25
17.80
23.30
26.55
26.70
28.55
26.20

31.45
36.45
36.25
29.95
33.60

...
.. .
...

.. .
.. .
...
...

.. .
.. .
...

35.50
35.40
37.95
41.20
47.75

...

55.35
62.80

...

.. .
...

Series 38 contains no revisions but is republished for the convenience of the user.
Series 6l contains revisions for the period 1948 through 1958. In addition, data not previously shown for 1947 have
been added.
(April 1968)

76



Appendix F-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for Business Cycle Developments series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data
are published in this appendix for: (a) new series which have been added to Business Cycle Developments, (b) series which have been revised recently, and'fcVseries which
have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the Index, Series Finding Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published.
Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ©(indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title.

Year

Feb.

Jan.

Mar.

May

Apr.

July

June

Oct.

Sept.

Aug.

Dec.

Nov.

114-. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (Percent)

0.38
0.38
0.38
0.99
1.16

0.38
0.38
0.38
1.00
1.16

0.38
0.38
0.38
1.00
1.16

0.38
0.38
0.38
1.00
1.15

0.38
0.38
0.38
1.00
1.16

0.38
0.38
0.64
1.00
0.98

0..38
0.38
0.74
1.03
1.02

0.38
0.38
0.79
1.09
1.06

0.38
0.38
0.84
1.12
1.04

0.38
0.38
0.92
1.14
1.06

0.38
0.38
0.95
1.15
1.10

2.04
1.21

1.12
1.39
1.57
2.02
0.98

1.14
1.42
1.66
2.08
1.05

1.16
1.52
1.62
2.18
1.01

1.17
1.58
1.71
2.20
0.78

1.17
1.50
1.70
2.23
0.65

1.17
1.59
1.82
2.10
0.71

1.21
1.64
1.88
2.09
0.89

1.32
1.65
1.79
1.88
1.01

1.33
1.61
1.78
1.40
0.99

1.36
1.61
1.86
1.43
0.95

1.37
1.73
2.13
1.63
1.17

1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....

1.26
2.46
3.21
2.60
2.8^

1.18
2.37
3.16
1.56
2.71

1.34
2.31
3.14
1.35
2.85

1.62
2.61
3.11
1.13
2.96

1.49
2.65
3.04
1.05
2.85

1.43
2.53
3.32
0.88
3.25

1.62
2.33
3.16
0.96
3.24

1.88
2.61
3.40
1.69

3.36

2.09
2.85
3.58
2.48
4.00

2.26
2.96
3.59
2.79
4.12

2.22
3.00
3.34
2.76
4.21

2.56
3.23
3.10
2.81
4.57

1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....

4.44
2.30
2.75
2.91
3.53

3.95
2.41
2.75
2.92
3.53

3.44
2.42
2.72
2.90
3.55

3.24
2.33
2.74
2.91
3.48

3.39
2.29
2.69
2.92
3.48

2.64
2.36
2.72
3.00
3.48

2.40
2.27
2.94
3.14
3.48

2.29
2.40
2.84
3.32
3.51

2.49
2.30
2.79
3.38
3.53

2.43
2.35
2.75
3.45
3.58

2.38
2.46
2.80
3.52
3.62

2.27
2.62
2.86
3.52
3.86

1965 ....
1966 ....

3.83
4.60

3.93
4.67

3.94
4.63

3.93
4.61

3.90
4.64

3.81
4.54

3.83
4.86

3.84
4.93

3.91
5.36

4.03
5.39

4.08
5.34

4.36
5.01

...

...

...

...

1945 ....
1946 ....
1947 ....
1948 ....
1949 ....

0.38
0.38
0.38
0.97

1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....

1.09
1.39
1.69

1.16

128. Japan — index of industrial production (1957-59=100)

1945 ....
1946 ....
1947 ....
1948 ....
1949 ....

...

...

...

...

...

17
24

18
25

"is

*19
26

20
25

*20
26

21
27

22
27

23
27

*23
27

*23
28

*24
29

1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....

28
41
48
49
62

29
39
47
51
61

28
42
45
54
64

30
44
46
55

63

31
45
47
56
61

32
46
47
57
61

33
46
49
57
61

35
45
49
59
59

36
46
52
59
61

38
44
50
61
61

40
46
48
61
62

40
47
48
62
63

1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....

62
73
89
93
99

62
75
92
94
102

65
73
91
93
103

64
76
94
93
105

64
78
99
90
109

64
80
98
89
11
1

65
81
99
92
113

67
83
97
94
115

69
84
96
94
118

68
86
94
96
120

71
87
94
95
122

71
87
92
98
126

1960 ....
1961
1962
1963
1964 ....

127
155
182
181
220

131
154
178
184
225

133
158
181
184
223

136
159
181
191
225

136
162
182
191
228

137
165
180
193
232

140
169
179
202
234

142
172
180
202
231

145
172
181
206
241

146
175
179
211
241

150
176
179
215
236

150
177
178
216
242

1965 ....
1966 ....

239
252

239
251

244
257

241
261

238
265

244
267

243
273

240
277

247
279

241
285

244
291

246
299

NOTE:

26

Series 114 contains no revisions but data not previously shown for 1945 through 1947 have been added.
Series 128 contains no revisions but is republished for the convenience of the user.




(April 1968)

77

Appendix F-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for Business Cycle Developments series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data
are published in this appendix for: fa) new series which have been added to Business Cycle Developments, (b) series which have been revised recently, and'CcV series which
have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the Index, Series Finding Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published.
Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ©(indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title.

Year

Jan.

Mar.

Feb.

May

Apr.

Aug.

July

June

Sept.

951. Federal Government receipts, national income and product accounts (Annual rate, Ml,

1945 ....
1946 ....
1947 ....
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....
1966 ....
1967 ....
1968 ....
1969 ....

34.9
43.5
44.7
40.8
••
.. .
...
...

42.4
65.6
66.2
71.7
62.9

...

69.2
75.6
82.4
76.0
87.5

...
.. .
.. .
...
...

97.5
94.4
103.4
112.0
115.3

.. .

123.4
137.0

...

952.

1945 ....
1946 ....
1947 ....
1948 ....
1949 ....
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....
1966 ....
1967 ....
1968 ....
1969 ....
NOTE:

.. .
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

...
...
...

...

...
.. .

...

* .«
...

38.2
42.8
43.5
38.8
46.6
62.7
66.3
71.9
62.9

. ..

...
. ..

. ..

.. .

...
.. .

...

...
...

71.1
77.2
82.2
75.9
91.2

...
.. .

...
.. .

97.6
97.1
105.6

...
.. .

...
...

...

...
...
.. .
.. .
.. .

...
...
.. .
.. .
.. .
...

112.2

113.9

...

. ..

.. .

124.9
141.6

.. .

...
41.1
42.1
42.6
38.5
52.9
62.0
66.8
70.7
63.6
73.3
77.2
82.3
79.5
89.9

...

95.7
99.1
107.6
115.0
115.4

.. .

123.4
145.6

. ..

Dec.

Nov.

Oct.

...

. ..

.. .
. ..

...
...
...

...
...

.. .

.. .
.. .

...
.. .

...
.. .

.. .
...

.. .
...

...

...

dol.)

...

42.1
44.5
42.4
37.5

...

57.5
65.9
69.8
65.6
65.7

.. .
...
...

75.0
80.1
79.4
83.1
90.3

...

95.1
102.4
109.2
117.2
117.2

...

127.6
148.6

Federal Government expenditures, national income and product accounts (Annual rate, bil. dol.)

42.8
28.7
31.0
40.0
47.2
47.6
66.1
76.2
73.4
67.9
69.3
78.1
84.1
91.7

...
...
...
.. .
.. .
...

...
.. .
.. .

35.4
29.2
32.9
41.7

.. .

39.0
54.5
70.1
78.0
69.5

...
.. .
...

...
...

67.1
71.8
79.7
88.3
90.4
92.0
101.6
110.2
112.1
118.5

. ..
.. .

119.9
138.4

...

. ..
.. .

.. .
...

90.4
99.3
108.4
114.4
117.8

.. .
...

.. .
...
...

118.9
134.8

. ..

...

The series on this page are introduced in this issue.

.. .

.. .
...

...
. ..
. ..
...

. ..

32.1
32.2
36.7
42.4
36.4
61.9
74.4
76.5
68.6
68.3
72.3
79.7
90.3
90.9
94.2
102.9
110.2
113.8
118.1
126.6
146.3

...

...

32.0
29.3
39.0
41.4

...

...
...
.. .

.. .

...

...

...
...

...

.. .

40.4
67.2
73.5
77.3
67.6

...
...

69.0
74.1
80.9
92.9
91.0

.. .

95.7
104.3
112.4
115.1
117.8

...

128.0
151.9

See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
(April 1968)

78



Appendix G.-DESCRIPTIONS AND SOURCES OF SERIES

951. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS, NATIONAL
AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS

INCOME

This series measures the dollar volume of receipts
of the Federal Government as reported in the U.S.
national income and product accounts. These receipts
derive from (l) Personal tax and nontax receipts,
which consist primarily of individual income taxes,
estate and gift taxes, and certain payments such as
fines and penalties; (2) corporate profits tax accruals—the Federal tax liability incurred and accrued by resident corporations on their corporate
earnings during the specific year or period; (3) indirect business tax and nontax accruals, including
liquor, tobacco, and other excise taxes, and customs
duties; and ( ) contributions for social insurance,
4
which is composed chiefly of employment taxes, contributions to the retirement funds for Government
employees, and deposits by the State to the unemployment trust fund. Data are seasonally adjusted
by the source agency. (Source: U.S. Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics.)

952. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS
This series measures the dollar volume of expenditures of the Federal Government as reported in the
U.S. national income and product accounts. Five
categories of expenditures are included:
(1) Federal purchases of goods and services is
the only category of Federal spending which is included in the gross national product (GNP). This
component is estimated in two categories—defense
purchases and other purchases. These purchases represent the value of the Nation's output bought directly by the Federal Government and the gross investment of Government enterprises. They include
the pay of military and civilian employees of the
Federal Government, outlays on equipment and supplies for defense and other programs, new construction, net purchases from abroad, and the capital
formation of Government enterprises. They exclude
acquisition of land, current outlays of Government
enterprises,transfer payments, Government interest,
and subsidies, as well as transactions in financial
claims;




( ) Transfer payments are outlays in return for
2
which no current service is deemed to be obtained.
Transfer payments to persons include such items as
old-age and survivors' insurance benefits, medicare
benefits, unemployment compensation, and military
and veterans' benefits. Although such payments are
not included in GNP, they do enter into the income
stream and have an impact on national output. They
are reflected in the GNP in another sector of the
accounts when spent by , the recipients. Foreign
transfer payments consist of U.S. Government nonmilitary grants to foreign governments in cash and
in kind, and U.S. Government pensions and other
transfers, as measured in the balance of payments
statistics;
(3) Net interest paid consists of interest outlays to U.S. residents minus interest received from
them and is measured on an accrual basis. It excludes interest paid to trust funds;
( ) Grants-in-aid to State and local govern4
ments represents Federal paymentsto State and local
governments (other than for interest on public
debt). The most important grants-in-aid payments
are for highways, public assistance, education, and
public health. Payments to public educational institutions for research and development contracts
are included. These statistics exclude outlays in
kind, such as farm commodities donated to these
governments. Grants-in-aid have their impact on GNP
when respent by the recipient governmental unit;
(5) Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises. Subsidies are the monetary grants
provided by Government to private business and reflect mainly payments to farmers, certain outlays
for export and disposal of surplus agricultural
commodities, and shipping subsidies. The current
surplus of Government enterprises represents the
excess of sales receipts over current operating
costs of such Government enterprises as the Post
Office, Commodity Credit Corporation, Tennessee
Valley Authority. In calculating the current surplus, no deduction is made for depreciation, and
interest is not included in either receipts or costs.
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
(Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics.)

79

INDEX
SERIES FINDING GUIDE
(PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles)
"ro
o

Series titles by economic process and other groupings
(See complete titles and sources on back cover)

Tables

^§

Appendixes
BtoE

—1 0
3

Historical
data
O)
M
(X

511.
*41.
42
*43
45.
40
*502

L
L
L
L
L
C
C

9
9
9
9
9
17
17

6,
6,
6,
6,
6,
7,
7,

33
33
33
33
33
38
38

Man-hours in nonagri. establishments
Employees in nonagri. establishments
Total nonagricultural employment
Unemployment rate total
Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, State
Unemployment rate married males
....
Unemploy rate 15 weeks and over
.

C
C
C
C
C
C
Lg

17
17
17
18
18
18
22

7,
7,
7,
7,
7,
7,
7,

38
38
38
38
38
38
41

GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Industrial production
Personal income

*816 Manufacturing and trade sales
57 Final sales
*54 Sales of retail stores
III.

*38.
13
*6.
94
*10.
11.

C
C

66-68
66-68, 73

68
68,. 73

68
68, 73
68
68
(6-6B, 74

68
66-68, 74

68
68
66-67, 69

c
c
c
c
c
c

18
18
18
19
19
19
19
19

7, 39 70, 74
7, 39 66-67,
7 , 39 66-68,
7, 39 66-68,
7, 39 68
7, 39 66-68,
7, 39 70
7, 39 66-68,

77
75
76
75
76
76
76

10/67
4/68
9/67
4/68
9/67
2/68
12/67

77
77
75
76
76
75
77

2/68
10/67
2/68
2/68
12/67
2/68
2/68

L
L
L
L
L
L
L

10
10
10
10
10
1
1
1
1

6,
6,
6,
6,
6,
6,
6,

33
33
34
34
34
34
34

1
1
1
1
1
1
20
20
22
22

6,
6,
6,
7,
7,
7,
7,

34
34
34
40
40
41
41

73

74
77
74
72

7/67
7/67
12/67
7/67
7/67
4/67
7/67
4/66

66-68
68, 73
66-68
68
66-68
70
68

76
75
78

4/68
3/68
6/67

78
76
75

55. Wholesale price index, industrial commodities. c
58. Wholesale price index, manufactured goods. . . c
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing . .

8
!•*

li

o>
Qg
Q_

3 o>
"H

68
68

78
76
74
78
77
76
78

5/67
8/67
6/65
12/67
8/67
4/68
11/67

74
74

20
20

7
7

40
40

68
68

73
72

2/67
4/67

23
23
24

8
8
8

42
42
43

70

75
75
73

7/67
7/67
2/67

15
15
15
15
15
16

6,
6,
6,
6,
6,
6,

37
37
37
37
37
37

71
71
71, 73

77
76
71
78
75
78

9/67
9/67
4/67

66-67, 69

69

VI. MONEY AND CREDIT

L
L
L
L
L
L

98. Change, money supply and time deposits
85. Change, money supply
*113. Change, consumer installment debt
112. Change, business loans 1-1
110 Total private borrowing . .

5/67
8/67
12/67

70, 74 73
74
77
74
74

1

71, 73
70

12/67
4/67
3/68

L

16

6, 37

68, 73

75

3/68

L
C
C
C

16 6, 37
21 7, 40
21 7, 40
21 7, 40

68, 73
71
68
68

71
76
77
72

4/67
1/68
4/68
8/66

C
C
f-g
,Lg
\-g
Lg

21 7,
21 7,
23 8,
23 8,
23 8,
23 8,

40
40
42
42
42
42

68
68
69

76
77
77
66-67, 69, 73 73
75
66-67, 70
69
77

U
U
U
U

24
24
24
25

8
8
8
8

43
43
43
43

72
72
71
69

79
79
74
73

6/67
6/67
4/67
4/67

U
U
U

25
25
25

8
8
8

43
43
43

69
69, 73
69

77
78
74

4/67
4/67
4/67

Fed. balance, nat'l. income and prod. acct. . . U
Fed. receipts, nat'l. income and prod. acct.2. . U
Fed. expend., nat'l. income and prod. acct.2. . . U
National defense purchases, current dollars . . U

26
26
26
27

8
8
8
8

44
44
44
44

72
70
70
70

76
78
78
76

7/67
4/68
4/68
7/67

U
U
— U
U

27
27
27
27

8
8
8
8

44
44
44
44

69, 73
69, 73
69
69, 73

78
77
78
76

12/67
12/67

U
U
.
U
U

28
28
28
28

8,
8,
8,
8,

45
45
45
45

70
69
69
69

77
77
77
78

7/67
7/67
7/67
7/67

114. Treasury bill rate -1
116. Corporate bond yields l
115
117.
66.
*72.
*67
118

66-67, 71

Treasury bond yields 1. . .
Municipal bond yields x
Consumer installment debt
Comm. and indus. loans outstanding
Bank rates on short-term business loans
Mortgage yields residential x

1/68
1/68

12/67
4/67
1/68
1/68

L
Unfilled orders durable goods industries
C
Backlog of capital appropriations mfg
C
Bus. expenditures, new plant and equipment . .
Lg
Mach. and equip, sales and bus. constr. expend. Lg

Change in business inventories
Change mfg and trade inventories
Purchased materials, higher inventories
Change mtls and supplies inventories
Buying policy production materials
. .
Vendor performance slower deliveries
Change in unfilled orders, durable goods
Book value mfs and trade inventories
Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods, book value .

L
L
L
L
L
L
L
Lg
Lg

66-68

68
70
66-67, 70

69

12
12
12
12
12
13
13
22
22

6,
6,
6,
6,
6,
6,
6,
7,
7,

35
35
35
35
35
35
35
41
41

72
66-67, 71
68, 73
71
68
68
71
66-67, 69
69

72
72
77
75
76
75
76
73
72

7/67
11/66
3/68
12/67
3/68
1/68
12/67
4/67
4/67

V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

Industrial materials prices
•••
Stock prices, 500 c. stocks (1941-43=10)
Stock prices, 500 c. stocks (1957-59=100) ....
Corporate profits after taxes
Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate .
Profits per dollar of sales mfg
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg

L
L
L
L
L
L
L

VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS

89. U.S. balance of payments:
b Official settlements basis
861. Export orders, durable goods, except

IV. INVENTORIES AND
INVENTORY INVESTMENT

*23
*19.
19.
*16
22.
18
*17.

Historical
data

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

Index of net business formation
New business incorporations
New orders, durable goods industries
Construction contracts value
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
New capital appropriations, manufacturing

t

21
*31
37.
20
26
32.
25.
*71
65.

21

EJ8 £
— o 0

14. Liabilities of business failures
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans,
30 days and over

9. Construction contracts, comm. and industrial . .
7 Private nonfarm housing starts
96
97
*61.
505.

Appendixes
BtoE

Tables

V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued

Avg workweek production workers mfg
Nonagricultural placements, all industries
Accession rate manufacturing
Initial claims State unemploy insurance
Layoff rate manufacturing
Nonagri job openings unfilled
Help-wanted advertising

II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE

49
*50.
*47
*52.

(See complete titles and sources on back cover)

So,

J8H

1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

*1.
*30.
2
5
3
301
46

"co

Series titles by economic process and other groupings

13
13
32
14
14
14
14

6,
6,
48
6,
6,
6,
6,

36
36
36
36
36
36

66-68
66-68
68-70
66-67, 70

70
70, 73
66-68

75
76
77
72
73
71
72

12/67
3/68
10/67
7/67
7/67
4/67
7/67

862. Export orders, nonelectric machinery

VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

95.
951.
952.
101.
91.
90.
99.
92.

Defense Department obligations, total
Defense Dept. obligations, procurement
New orders, defense products industries'
Military contract awards in U.S

SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL TIMING
AND ECONOMIC PROCESS

850.
851.
852.
853.

Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing
Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade . .
Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments dur. goods.
Ratio, prod, of bus. equip, to consumer goods .

854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable
personal income
.
855. Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfilled
to unemployed
. . ...
856. Ratio, avg. earnings to consumer prices
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing

U 29

8, 45

70

78

7/67

U 29
U 29
U 29

8, 45
8, 45
8, 45

69
69, 73
70, 73

78
79
78

2/68
7/67

*Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 ndicators. L = Xleading, C = roughly coincident, Lg= lagging, U = unclassified ("series unclassified by cyclical timing"
nparisons").
A descriotion of this series is contained in the July 1964 issue of BCD. A description of this series
"seriesunclassified by cyclical timing and economic process," and "international comparisons'
is contained in the April 1968 issue of BCD.

80



3/68
8/67

2/68

SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
(PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles)
o

Series titles by economic process and other groupings "s
o&(See complete titles and sources on back cover)

Appendixes
BtoE

Tables

I I
I

Historical
data
DO
CO
D_

|
o
Series titles by economic process and other groupings
ooE
(See complete titles and sources on back cover)
.= to £.

0

u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u

30
30
30
30
30
30
30

46
46
46
46
46
46
46

69
69
69
69
69
69
69

78
77
77
77
78

7/67
11/67
11/67
11/67
4/68
11/67
11/67

31
31
31
31
31
31

47
47
47
47
47
47

69
69
69
69
69
69

79
79
80
79
80
80

10/67
10/67
10/67
10/67
10/67
10/67

32
32
32
32
32
32

48
48
48
48
48
48

69
69
69
69
69
69

81
81
82
81
82
82

10/67
10/67
10/67
10/67
10/67
10/67

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
123.
122.
126.
125.
128.
121.
127.

Canada index of industrial production
United Kingdom, index of industrial production .
France index of industrial production
West Germany, index of industrial production . .
Japan, index of industrial production
OECD-Europe, index of industrial production . .
Italy, index of industrial production

133 Canada index of consumer prices
132. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices
135. West Germany, index of consumer prices
138. Japan, index of consumer prices
137. Italy index of consumer prices
143.
142.
146.
145
148
147

Canada, index of stock prices
United Kingdom, index of stock prices
France, index of stock prices
West Germany index of stock prices
Japan index of stock prices
Italy index of stock prices .

Tables

Historical
data

1 </> *g
a.

s£ £
1— T3 O

I
I

J— "o

Appendixes
BtoE

DIFFUSION INDEXES
76

Dl
D6
Dll

Average workweek
New orders
Capital appropriations

51
51
51

54, 58,
54, 58
54

D34. Profits, mfg
D19. Stock prices
D23. Industrial materials prices

51
51
51

55
55, 59
55, 60

05. Initial claims
D41. Employees in nonagri. establishments
D47. Industrial production

51
52
52

D58. Wholesale prices mfg.
054. Retail sales
D35 Net sales mfrs
D36. New orders
D61. New plant and equipment expenditures

83
72
77

10/67
4/65
8/67

69
72
72

10/64
4/65
4/65

55, 60
56, 61
56, 61

73
79
73

5/65
11/67
4/65

52
52
53

56, 62
56, 63
57

78
73
70

4/67
4/65
11/64

53
53
53

57
57
57

70
68
69

11/64
11/64
11/64

73

U = unclassified ("series unclassified by cyclical timing," "series unclassified by cyclical timing and economic process," and "international comparisons").




81




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Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
"M" indicates monthly series; "Q" indicates quarterly series.
Data apply to the whole period except for series designated
by "EOM" (end of the month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter).
The Roman numeral identifies the economic process group in
which a series is classified. (See Finding Guide.) Thus,
"(M, ID" indicates a monthly series classified in group II.
The general classification follows the approach of the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. The series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list"
of 25 indicators.

36 Leading Indicators
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing
(M,I).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (M,lll).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries (M,IV).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census

*29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local
building permits (M,III).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census

53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and
construction (M,II).-Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics

*30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M,l).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census

*54. Sales of retail stores (M,II).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census

*31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M,IV).-Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics, and Bureau of the Census

3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M,I).--Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics

33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions
and life insurance companies (M,VI).-Institute of Life
Insurance, Federal National Mortgage Association, National
Association of Mutual Savings Banks, U.S. Savings and
Loan League, and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System^seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census

7. New private nonfarm housing units started (M,lll).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space (M,III).--F.W Dodge Corporation;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M,lll).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and F.W.
Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations (Q,lll).--National Industrial Conference Board;
component industries are seasonally adjusted and added
to obtain seasonally adjusted total
13. Number of new business incorporations (M,III).--Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M,VI).--Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*17. Price per unit of labor cost index-ratio, wholesale prices
of manufactured goods index (unadjusted) to seasonally
adjusted index of compensation of employees (sum of wages,
salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit
of output (M,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing
corporations (Q,V).-Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M,V).-Standard
and Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of
materials and supplies (M,IV).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after
valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q,IV).-Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries (Q,V).--Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M,V).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment




*50. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q,ll).-Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*52. Personal income (M, 11). -Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics

32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries
(M,IV.)..-Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment

*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (M,lll).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q,ll).--Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

26. Buying policy-production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M,IV).-National Association
of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment

2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M,l).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics

5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M,l).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census

*47. Index of industrial production (M,II).-Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System

37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials
(M,IV).--National Association of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*38. Index of net business formation (M,lll).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days
and over (EOM,VI).-American Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Bimonthly since
December 1964)
85. Percent change in total US. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M,III).-F.W.
Dodge Corporation
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M,VI):Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
credit markets (Q,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System

55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M,V).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q,ll).--Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M,V).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) (M,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System; no seasonal adjustment
96.Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOMJII).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ,III).National Industrial Conference Board; component industries
are seasonally adjusted and added to obtain seasonally
adjusted total
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;
no seasonal adjustment
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M,VI).-Treasury Department; no seasonal adjustment
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M,VI).~
First National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department; no seasonal adjustment
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M,VI).»The
Bond Buyer; no seasonal adjustment
301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled (EOM,I).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
511. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments, (M,l).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*816. Manufacturing and trade sales (M,ll).~Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the
Census

112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M,VI).--Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*113. Net change in consumer installment debt (M,VI).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System

25 Roughly Coincident Indicators
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M,l).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments
(M,l).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M,l).~
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M,l).--Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the, Census

11 Lagging Indicators
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total
(Q,III).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics, and the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing-ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages
and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufactur
ing (M,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics, and the Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods,
all manufacturing industries (EOM,IV) Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
66. Consumer installment debt (EOM,VI). Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System FRS seasonally adjusted
net change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous
month to obtain current figure

45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M,l).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M,h.
National Industrial Conference Board

Continued on reverse

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS

POSTAGE AND FEES PAID
U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402
OFFICIAL BUSINESS

FIRST CLASS MAIL

Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes-Continued
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities (Q,VI).»
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no
seasonal adjustment

862. Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery (M,VII).McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census

68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product (1958
dollars), nonfinancial corporations (ratio of current-dollar
compensation of employees to gross corporate product in
1958 dollars) (Q,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics, National Income Division

951. Federal Government receipts, national income and product
account (Q).-Department of Commerce, Off ice of Business
Economics

*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories, total
(EOM, IV).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics and Bureau of the Census
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks (EOM,VI).-Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages(M,VI).-Federal
Housing Administration; no seasonal adjustment
*502. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M,l).~Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
505. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment satesand business
construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M,lll).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census

15 Series Unclassified by
Cyclical Timing

952. Federal expenditures, national income and product account
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Econo-

8 Series Unclassified by
Cyclical Timing
and Economic Process
850. Ratio, output to capacity, mfg. (Q).-Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, and
McGraw-Hill Economics Department
851. Ratio, inventories (BCD series 71) to sales (BCD series
816), manufacturing and trade total (M).- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
852. Ratio, unfilled orders (BCD series 96) to shipments, manufacturers' durable goods (M).- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census

81. Index of consumer prices (M,V).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M,VII).Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (Q).Departmentof Commerce, Office of Business Economics

87. General imports, total (M,VII).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census

855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled (BCD series
301) to number of persons unemployed (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security and Bureau of Labor
Statistics; and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census

89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments
(Q,VII).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
90. Defense Department obligations incurred procurement
(M,VIII).-Department of Defense. Fiscal Analysis DIVI
sion, seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
91. Defense Department obligations incurred, total (M.VIII).Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division, seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
92. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and
institutions (M,VIII).-Department of Defense, Directorate
for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
95. Federal Government surplus or deficit, national income
and product account (Q.VIIO.-Department of Commerce.
O f f i c e of Business Economics
99. New orders, defense products industries (M.VHD.-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
101. Federal purchases of goods and services, national defense
(Q,VIII).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
861. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except
motor vehicles and parts (M,VII).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census; no seasonal adjustment




... United States, index of industrial production (MJI).-See
series 47
132. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M).-Ministry of
Labour (London); no seasonal adjustment
133. Canada, index of consumer prices (M).~Domimon Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa); no seasonal adjustment
135. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M).-Statistisches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); no seasonal adjustment

853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of
consumer goods (index: 1957-59 = 100) (M).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (Based upon
components of the Federal Reserve index of industrial
production.)

88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87)
(M,VII).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

128. Japan, index of industrial production (M).-Mmistry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)

856. Ratio, average hourly earnings of production workers in
manufacturing to consumer prices (BCD series 81) (M).~
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census

136. France, index of consumer prices (M).-lnstitut National de
la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris); no
seasonal adjustment
137. Italy, index of consumer prices (M).-lstituto Centrale di
Statistica(Rome); no seasonal adjustment
138. Japan, index of consumer prices (M).-Office of the Prime
Minister (Tokyo); no seasonal adjustment
. . . United States,, index of consumer prices (M,V).- See
Series 81
142. United Kingdom,, index of stock prices (IK).-The Financial
Times (London); no seasonal adjustment
143. Canada, index of stock prices (M).-Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa); no seasonal adjustment
145. West Germany, index of stock prices (M).-Statistisches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); no seasonal adjustment
146. France, index of stock prices (M).-lnstitut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris); no seasonal
adjustment
147. Italy, index of stock prices (M).-lstituto Centrale di Statistics (Rome); no seasonal adjustment
148. Japan, index of stock prices (M).-Tokyo Stock Exchange
(Tokyo); no seasonal adjustment
. . . United States, index of stock prices, 500 co mon stocks
(M,V).-See series 19

857. Vacancy rate in rental housing-unoccupied rental housing
units as a percent of total rental housing (Q).- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

Diffusion Indexes
19 International Comparisons
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
European Countries, index of industrial production (M).~
Orgamzation for Economic Cooperation and Development
(Pans)
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).~Central
Statistical Office (London)
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M).-Dominion Bureau
of Statistics ( O t t a w a )
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).-Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden), seasonally adjusted by
OECD

The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index.
Diffusion indexes and corresponding business cycle series
bear the same number and are obtained from the same sources.
See sources above for DI, D5, D6, Oil, D19, D23, D41, D47,
D54, D58, and D61. Sources for other diffusion indexes are
as follows:
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-First National City
Bank of New York; no seasonal adjustment of series components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc.
D35. Net sales, total manufactures (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment

126. France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)

D36. New orders, durable manufactures (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment

127. Italy, index of industrial production (M).-lstituto Centrale
di Statistical Rome)

D46. Freight carloadings (Q).-Association of American Railroads; no seasonal adjustment

For Index-Series Finding Guide, see last pages of issue.


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