Full text of Business Conditions Digest : April 1966
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BUSINESS CYCLE
DEVELOPMENTS
April 1966
DATA THROUGH MARCH
U,S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Bureau of the Census
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
John T. Connor, Secretary
This report was prepared in the Economic Research and Analysis Division under the direction of Julius
Shiskin, Chief. Technical staff and
their responsibilities for the publication are—
Feliks Tamm — Computation of
business cycle measures,
Allan H. Young—New projects,
Barry A. Beckman—Specifications
for computer processing,
Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and
compilation of basic data.
Editorial supervision is provided by
Geraldine Censky of the Administrative and Publication Services Division^
Stuart I, Freeman is responsible for
publication design.
The cooperation of various government and private agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged.
The agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series and
sources on the back cover of this
report.
Subscription price is $6 a year ($1.50
additional for foreign mailing). Single
issues are 60 cents.
Airmail delivery is available at an
additional charge. For information
about domestic or foreign air mail
delivery, write to the Superintendent
of Documents (address below), enclosing a copy of your address label.
Make checks payable to the Superintendent' of Documents. Send to
U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402, or to any
U.S. Department of Commerce Field
Office.
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
A. Ross Eckler, Director
Howard C. Grieves, Deputy Director
Morris H. Hansen, Asst. Director for Research and Development
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief Economic Statistician
t* 'V.,?;
This report brings together many of the available
economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation.
The presentation and classification of series follow the business indicators
approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning dates
are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research
(NBER) which, in recent years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken as implying acceptance
or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle analysis. It is intended
only to supplement other reports of the Department of Commerce that
provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data according to their
usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle and the inclusion of special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons
that help in evaluating the current stage of the business cycle. In addition the movements of the series are shown against the background of the
expansions and contractions of the general business cycle so that "leads"
and "lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical developments
spotted.
About 90 principal series and over 300 components are included
in preparing the report. The exact number of series included for the total
and important classes of series may vary from month to month because of
additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes. Almost all of the basic data are available in published reports. A complete
list of series and the sources of data is shown on the back cover of this
report. Series are seasonally adjusted except those that do not appear
to contain seasonal movement.
The chief merits of this report are the speed with which the data
are collected, assembled, and published and the arrangement of the series
for business cycle studies. Publication is scheduled for around the 22d of
the month following the month of data.
April 1966
DATA THROUGH MARCH
Series ESI No. 66-4
DEVELOPMENTS
New Features and Changes for This Issue
Computer Programs for Time Series Analysis
Punch Card File of Business Cycle Series
iii
iv
iv
Descriptions arid Procedures
Introduction
Method of Presentation
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
Charts
How to Read Charts 1 and 2
.
TABLE 1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months
CHART 1. Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present
TABLE 2. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series
1
1
2
2
2
3
4
5
6
8
10
24
Analytical
TABLE
CHART
TABLE
TABLE
3.
2.
4.
5.
Distribution of "Highs" for Current and Comparative Periods _ _
Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present
Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components
ABOUT THE COVER-*
Series in this publication are grouped according to their usual timing and
shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general
business activity. The cover design illustrates this concept. The black vertical
bar represents a contraction; the top curve, the Leading Series which usually
fall before a contraction has begun and rise before it has ended; the middle
curve, the Coincident Series which usually fall with the contraction period;
the bottom curve, the Lagging Series which fall after a contraction has
begun and rise after it ends.
38
39
42
46
CQNTiNTS
Cyclical Comparisons
CHART 3. Comparisons of Reference Cycles ~_
_____
„__„_
TABLE 6. Comparisons From Reference Peak Levels and Reference
Trough Dates
____.
_„. ,___,
TABLE 7. Comparisons From Reference Trough Levels and Reference
Trough Dates
„
.
_ _ _ „ „ _ „_„_.„_„_
58
62
63
Appendixes
Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the
United States: 1854 to 1961
„„„.„.„_„_.__„Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected
Business Indicators __
-___,__ ^___~____
Appendix C. Average Changes and Related Measures for Business
Cycle Series
., _„„.
___„„„_
Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle
Series „
. _„_
-„___
_____„„_„„
Appendix E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction
and Expansion Periods of Business Cycles:
1920 to 1961
„.„_„__„_„
Appendix F. Historical Data for Selected Series „ „ „ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ „ , _ . . _ _
._
Index
Series Finding Guide
65
66
67
70
71
72
j$A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the
change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings
of business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may
involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation
to other series, changes in components of indexes, etc.
Changes in this issue are as follows:
1. The sample for the collection of retail sales
NEW
data (series 54) has been revised and a new seasonal
adjustment has been introduced affecting data beginning
with January 1959.
Data based on the new sample were
presented in the March issue for the period January
1964 through February 1966.
are presented in this issue.
Data for 1959 through 1963
For a detailed explanation
of the sample revisions, see the Monthly Retail Trade
report for January 1966 (U.S. Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census).
The diffusion indexes for retail sales (series
D54) have been revised beginning with July 1964 for
both 1-month (June to July) and 9-month (February to
November) spans to reflect the revised data.
2. Appendix F includes revised historical data for
series 54*
The May issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS is
scheduled for release on May 24*
AND
111
for this
Computer Programs for Time Series Analysis
Since October 1965, the Bureau of the Census has been using the X-ll variant
of Census Method II as its standard seasonal adjustment program, replacing
the X-9 and X-10 variants. The X-ll variant is described in Bureau of the
Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census Method II
Seasonal Adjustment Program. An abstract of the paper appeared in the October
1965 issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. A version to adjust
quarterly series (X-11Q) is also available.
The X-ll and X-11Q programs have been compiled in Fortran IV on the
Univac 1107 and the IBM 7090 and may be adapted for use on other large-scale
computers. The X-ll program contains 2,500 Fortran source statements and
requires 23,000 36-bit words of core memory on the 1107. The X-11Q contains
1,500 Fortran statements and requires 15,000 words on the 1107. The programs
will adjust series as short as 3 years and as long as 30 years in length.
Prospective users, particularly those with machines other than the Univac 1107
and the IBM 7090, should study the detailed description of the program in
Technical Paper No. 15 before purchasing it. This program is being adapted
for small computers. Information about such adaptations will be provided
by the Bureau of the Census upon request when it becomes available. However,
the Census Bureau staff will not be available to help resolve problems that
arise in the use of these adaptations. Before purchasing the Fortran deck, please
be sure it is suitable for your computer.
A program for the computation of diffusion indexes is also available. It contains 450 Fortran statements and requires 16,000 words on the 1107. The
program will accept up to 80 component series of up to 20 years in length for
each index.
Punch
Fife of
A punch card file containing data shown in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS for the principal business cycle series included in table 2, the diffusion
indexes in table 4, and the component series (listed in table 5) used to compute
14 of the diffusion indexes is maintained at the Bureau of the Census. Duplicate
cards for 85 of the principal series, the 30 diffusion indexes, and 145 of their
components are available. (The other series may be obtained only from the
sponsoring agencies.) One card is required per series year. (For the few
series where data are not available back to 1948, data will be included beginning
with the first available year.) The cost for the 85 principal series, from 1948 to
date, is $50. For these principal series plus the 30 diffusion indexes and 145
component series, the cost is $100 for the same period. The series are available
in these two quantities only. The Census Bureau cannot supply special sortings
or tabulations of these data.
The Bureau of the Census cannot keep customers' files current. However, the
figures required for this purpose are published in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS each month.
Copies of the programs, papers, and data may be ordered by using the form on page 75.
IV
DESCRIPTIONS
AND PROCEDURES
INTRODUCTION
Students of economic conditions describe the business
cycle as consisting of alternating periods of expansion
and contraction in production, employment, income,
money flows, prices, and other economic processes.
The fluctuations take place in a concerted manner, but
not simultaneously. Once an expansion gets underway,
it spreads from firm to firm, from industry to industry,
from area to area, and from process to process, cumulating until a cyclical peak in aggregate activity is
reached. Even while expansion is widespread during
the upward phase of the business cycle, some activities
continue to move in the opposite direction. Declines
begin to spread as the expansion nears its peak and
continue to spread even faster after the peak has been
passed. But some activities continue to expand during
the general contraction. Before long these expansions
become stronger and more widespread. When they
begin to dominate the situation, the upturn in aggregate
activity has arrived and a new expansion is underway.
This sequence is recurrent, but not periodic.
The causal relations among these various economic
processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative
nature of cyclical forces, and explain why expansion
eventually turns into recession and recession into expansion. Cyclical fluctuations in production and employment are preceded by fluctuations in measures
which relate to future rather than to current production—measures such as new orders for durable goods,
the formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations
in various types of enonomic costs, such as labor costs,
interest rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments,
and holdings of inventories and of debts.
Although this pattern has been characteristic of
American economic history, today many economists
do not consider it inevitable.
Intensive research by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) over many years has provided
a list of those significant series that usually lead, those
that usually move, with, and those that usually lag
behind cyclical movements in aggregate economic ac
tivity. The series have been grouped and classified
by the NBER as "leading", "roughly coincident", or
"lagging" indicators. These indicators are defined as
follows:
^
NBER Leading Indicators.—Series that usually
reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate
economic activity as measured by the roughly coincident series (see below). One group of these
series pertains to activities in the labor market,
another to orders and contracts, and so on.
^
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—Series
that are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial
production, and retail sales.
^
NBER Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new
plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning
points after they are reached in aggregate economic activity.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance are
included in this report. Some of these series, such as
change in money supply, merchandise trade balance,
and cash surplus or deficit, represent important factors
in the economy, but they have not qualified as indicators
for various reasons, such as irregularity in timing.
Finally, industrial production indexes for several countries which have important trade relations with the
United States are presented.
The list of series covered and sources of the basic
data are shown on the back cover of this report. Series
numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Data are shown in this report in three general categories,
as follows:
&..
Basic Data (chart 1 and tables 1 and 2).—Data
are shown for business cycle indicators, additional
U.S. series with business cycle significance, and
industrial production indexes for selected countries. Together, they provide a broad view of
current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as well as the basis for
making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
^
Analytical Measures (chart 2 and tables 3 to 5).—
These are measures that aid in forming a judgment of the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, determining the extent of current
changes in different parts of the economy, and
pointing to developments in particular industries
and places.
^
Cyclical Patterns (chart 3 and tables 6 and 7).—
Current cyclical levels are compared with levels at
corresponding stages of earlier cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending
upon the phase of the business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular
report, certain appendix materials are presented. These
materials include historical data, key information, and
adjustment factors.
The business cycle turning dates used in this report are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate dates when aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months after it has occurred.
Monthly business cycle peaks and troughs have been
dated by the NBER for the period 1854-1961. Over
this span, expansion has prevailed 61 percent of the
time and contraction, 39 percent. If war periods are
disregarded, expansion has prevailed 56 percent of the
time and contraction, 44 percent.
Adjustments for normal seasonal fluctuations are often
necessary to bring out the underlying cyclical trends
of a series. Such adjustments allow for periodic intrayear variations resulting chiefly from normal differences
in weather conditions during the year and from various institutional arrangements. Some series contain
considerable variation attributable to the number of
working or trading days in each month. An additional
adjustment is necessary in such cases to reduce this
variation. Variations due to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; how-
ever, there are some cases in which a separate holiday
adjustment is necessary for holidays with variable dates.
Such a case is retail sales of apparel which is affected
strongly by the date of Easter and, to a lesser degree, by
the dates of Labor Day and Thanksgiving.
In general, the seasonal adjustment process is designed to adjust for average weather conditions but
not for the dispersion about that average. Thus, some
seasonally adjusted series, such as housing starts, will
tend to be low in months of unusually bad weather and
high during unusually good weather. At the Bureau
of the Census, studies have been started on some series
to determine the effects of abnormal weather. Although it eventually may be possible, Census methods
do not at present make any adjustments for such
variations.
Most of the series contained in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form. Unadjusted data
are used only for those series which appear to have no
pattern of seasonal variation. (Unadjusted series are
identified in table 2.) In most cases, the seasonally
adjusted data used for a series are the official figures
released by the source agency; therefore, several different methods of seasonal adjustment are involved.
In addition, for the special purposes of business cycle
studies, a number of series that are not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a
seasonally adjusted basis in this report. For these
series, seasonal adjustments have been developed by
either the NBER or the Census Bureau. The adjustment factors for these series, derived by Census Method
II, are shown in appendix D. Factors for series which
are the sums of seasonally adjusted components or
which are based on unpublished source data are not
shown.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate
of the appropriate span over which to observe the cyclical movements in a monthly series. This span is usually
longer than a single month because month-to-month
changes are often dominated by erratic movements, but
shorter than the frequently used 12-month span (change
from the same month a year ago), and is different for
different series (see appendix C for (MCD values and
method of computation).
MCD is, on average, the first span of months for
which the average change for the cyclical factor is
greater than that of the irregular factor and remains so.
It is small for smooth series and large for irregular
series. The month-to-month differences between moving averages of the period equal to MCD are commensurate with the differences between seasonally
adjusted values separated by the same MCD span;
thus, the month-to-month differences in a 3-month
moving average are commensurate with differences in
seasonally adjusted values over 3-month spans. MCD
moving averages all have about the same degree of
smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of
highly irregular series, such as business failures and
Federal cash payments, will show their cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data
for such smooth series as industrial production.
MCD moving averages are shown in chart 1 for all
series with an MCD of "5" or more. To provide an
indication of the variation about these moving averages,
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted beginning
with 1958. Although not so smooth as more powerful
moving averages (such as the weighted 13-term Henderson curve), the MCD curve is more current and has a
smaller rounding bias around business cycle peaks and
troughs. On balance, the MCD curve seems to offer a
reasonable compromise in terms of currency, smoothness, and fidelity to the patterns of business cycle fluctuations.
Because of advance reporting and preliminary seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are usually
larger than those computed from historical series and
shown in appendix C. MCD is usually computed for a
fairly long period, one covering both expansions and
contractions. Since the pace of change varies from
phase to phase of the business cycle, such a measure will
not provide an accurate estimate of the span over which
to estimate cyclically significant changes at all times.
Thus, MCD computed for the period 1953-63 is likely
to be too high during the early stages of recovery when
expansion has usually been rapid and too low during
the late stages of expansion when the rate of advance
has usually been small. This limitation should be borne
in mind when making use of this measure.1
Three kinds of analytical measures are presented—timing distributions, diffusion indexes, and directions of
change. These measures aid in forming a judgment of
the current changes compared to previous changes, the
imminence of a turning point in the business cycle, and
the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also point to developments in particular industries and places.
1
For a more complete description of MCD and its use in
studying economic series, see Business Cycle Indicators,
Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1, ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic
Forecasting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University Press:
J961).
Timing Distributions
Distributions of current "highs" appear to be helpful
in appraising the evidence for a prospective business
cycle turning point. Each month a timing distribution
is constructed. This timing distribution shows the number of series reaching new highs and the percent currently high for each of several recent months (see table
3). Similar distributions of "lows" will be presented
during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpreting the
distribution of current highs, such distributions are
also shown for leading and coincident series as they
appear 3 months and 6 months before the peak of
each of the earlier post-World War II expansions and
at their peaks.
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the leading and roughly
coincident business cycle indicators are scanned each
month. During a business cycle expansion, the date of
the high value for each series is recorded. (For inverted
series—that is, series with negative conformity to the
business cycle—dates of low values are taken.) If the
values for 2 or more months are equal, the latest date
is taken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values may be disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly
for the current month.
The letter "H" is used in table 2 to identify and
highlight the current high values during the expansion.
The highs designated during the current cyclical phase
will not necessarily be the specific cycle peaks. (See
appendix B.) As new high levels are reached during
the expansion, the current highs will be moved ahead.
Comparisons of the current timing distributions with
those for periods around earlier business cycle peaks
are helpful for appraising the evidence of a prospective
business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be made
in light of the fact that a contraction following a high
value reached several months ago may be the result
of an erratic fluctuation and that a new high may be
reached in some future month. In short, when the
percent currently high falls below 50 percent for both
the leading and roughly coincident series, this does
not necessarily signify that a business cycle peak has
occurred. It may do so, but it may simply reflect a
short reversal in the upward movement.
Diffusion Indexes
Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures of
groups of economic series. They express, for a given
aggregate series, the percent of the series components
which have risen over given spans of time. Their turning points tend to lead the turning points of the
aggregate and they measure how widespread a business
change is. They vary between the limits of 100 (all
components rising) and zero (all components falling). Widespread increases are often associated with
rapid growth and widespread declines with sharp reductions in aggregate activity.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, comparisons are made over 1month spans (January-February, February-March,
etc.) and generally for either 6- or 9-month spans,
depending upon the irregularity of the series. The
indexes based on 1-month spans are more "current"
but they are also more irregular than the 6- or 9month indexes. (See chart 2.) Quarterly series are
compared over 1-quarter spans, 3-quarter spans, and
4-quarter spans.
Recent research has shown that the longer-span
diffusion indexes are not only smoother, but have
systematically larger amplitudes than the 1-month indexes. The 1-month indexes generally have large irregular fluctuations, but the movements may be significant when important changes are taking place, particularly around cyclical turning points. Since the
longer-span diffusion indexes are centered, there is
an apparent loss in currency equal to one-half the
span; for example,, 3 months in the case of a 6-month
diffusion index. However, the most recent figure for
a 6-month or longer-span index does provide the latest
available information on changes over that span. If a
significant reversal has taken place within that span,
the 1-month indexes are likely to reveal it. Presentation of both 1-month and longer-span diffusion indexes
provides an opportunity for the user to take advantage
of the best features of each in interpreting current
changes.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D" designate
diffusion indexes. When one of these numbers corresponds to the number of a basic indicator series,
it means that the diffusion index has been computed
from components of the indicator series; for example,
the diffusion index numbered "D6" is computed from
Components of series 6. Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series components are assigned new
numbers.
Diffusion indexes that are based on business expectations show what proportion of business enterprises
(or industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a lag
in recognition of actual developments.
Diffusion-Index Components
Many of the component series used to make up the
diffusion indexes are shown in table 5. Where possible,
recent basic data for the components are shown in
part A. In part B, directions of change in these
components are indicated for consecutive months and,
depending upon the irregularity of the diffusion index,
for either 6- or 9-month spans. The directions of
change are indicated by " + " for rising, "o" for unchanged, and "—" for falling. (In counting the number of components rising, a "o" is counted as onehalf.)
This table provides a convenient view of changing
business conditions and is helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more
highly aggregated statistical measures. That is, it
shows which economic activities went up, which went
down, and how long such movements have persisted.
The table also helps to show how a recession or recovery spreads from one sector of the economy to
another.
COMPARISONS
OF CYCLICAL PATTERNS
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare the
behavior of the various series in the current business
cycle phase with their behavior during the corresponding phase of previous business cycles. These comparisions are made in different ways depending upon
whether the current cyclical phase is an expansion or
contraction.
Expansions are compared in one way by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels.
In table 6 of this report, data for the latest month
in the current expansion (shown by number of months
from the February 1961 trough) are compared with
the May 1960 reference peak. For each earlier expansion, data for a like period (same number of
months from the trough of the expansion) are compared with the preceding reference peak. This type
of comparison is designated as changes computed
from reference peak levels and reference trough dates.
This type of comparison shows whether, and by how
much, the current level of activity exceeds or falls
short of the level at the preceding business cycle
peak, and how the current situation compares, in this
respect, with earlier expansions. For those earlier
periods of expansion that were shorter than the current
one, the comparisons reflect the status at a point after
a new contraction had set in,
Expansions are also compared by computing changes
from reference trough levels and reference trough dates
(table 7). For the current expansion, this type of
comparison measures the extent of the rise from the
trough level (February 1961) to the level at the current month. For each earlier expansion, data for a
like period (same number of months from the trough of
the expansion) are compared with the level at the
trough. The same situation exists here as for the
comparisons shown in table 6: For earlier expansions
that were shorter than the current one, the comparisons
show the status at a point after a new contraction had
set in.
Contractions can be compared by computing changes
over the span from the most recent business cycle peak
to the current month and over equal spans from
previous reference peaks. This type of comparison is
designated as changes from reference peak levels and
reference peak dates. These comparisons will be made
during a contraction period.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on the
basis of reference dates, which are the same for all
series, similar comparisons may be made using the
specific peak and trough dates identified for each series.
(Appendix B lists specific dates for a selected group
of series.) Such comparisons would be based on
changes from specific peak levels and specific trough
dates and on changes from specific trough levels and
specific trough dates. Although these specific cycle
comparisons are not currently included in this report,
they have been shown in previous issues.
Nearly all series have undergone changes in definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since 1919;
therefore, the historical comparisons are to be considered only approximate. Furthermore, it is sometimes necessary to use data for a closely related series
for cycles prior to the period covered by the series
used currently. The principal substitutions of this
type are as follows:
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1948: Residential building contracts,
floor space, by F. W. Dodge Corp.)
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Factory employment)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly data
as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1929: Department
store sales)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing (prior to 1948: Production worker
wage cost per unit).
Two types of charts are used to highlight the cyclical
patterns of the business cycle series: Historical time
series and cyclical comparisons.
Historicol Time Series
(charts 1 and 2)
These charts show cyclical fluctuations against the
background of expansions and contractions in general
business activity from 1948 to the current month.
Shaded areas on the charts indicate periods of business cycle contractions between business cycle peak
dates (beginnings of shaded areas) and business cycle
trough dates (ends of shaded areas). The shading for
a new contraction will be entered only after a trough
has been designated.
Several different ratio and arithmetic scales are used
to highlight the cyclical movements of the various series.
The scale selected for each series is identified in the
margin of the chart. Rates of change of various series
can be compared with each other only where scales are
identical. See the diagram, page 6, for additional help
in using these charts.
Cyclical Comparisons
(chart 3)
This chart compares the movements of selected series
during the current business cycle with their movements
through the corresponding phases of previous business
cycles. Actually, it is an extension of the concept behind table 6. While table 6 makes a comparison at
one point in time, chart 3 shows these comparisons
over the course of the whole business cycle. These
comparisons facilitate judgments on the vigor of the
current expansion relative to behavior during the expansions of earlier cycles.
Instead of following the usual date sequence, as in
charts 1 and 2, the data in this chart are alined acT
cording to the strategic points of the business cycle.
Each of the included series is separated into four segments which encompass the three complete business
cycles since 1948 and the current expansion. These
segments are alined so that the trough dates all fall at
the same point on the horizontal scale and so that the
levels of the preceding peaks all fall at the same point
on the vertical scale.
A similar chart, based on specific cycle dates, was
previously included in this report but has been discontinued for the present.
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of
expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated
by NBER.
CHART 1 — Business Cycle Series
See back cover for complete titles
and sources of series.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of
recession and beginning of Expansion (white areas) as designated by
NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
("12" = December)
Solid line indicates monthly data. \
(
(Data may be actual monthly fig- >^
ures or MCD moving averages.*)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted.
("II" = second quarter)
Broken Hne indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average * is plotted.
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions,
extreme values, etc.)
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. Series plotted to different
scales are not directly comparable.
"Scale A" is an arithmetic scale,
"scale L-1" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance,
"scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale
with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Scale shows percent of components rising.
Broken line indicates monthly data
over 1-month spans.
Arabic number indicates .latest
month for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("12"--=
December)
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
spans.
* Many of the more irregular series are
shown in terms of their MCD moving
averages as well as their actual monthly
data. In such cases, the 4-, 5", or 6-term
moving averages are plotted Wz, 2, or
2V2 months, respectively, behind the
actual data. See page 2 for a description of MCO moving averages.
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("111" =
third quarter)
Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
intervals. This line is also used to
indicate anticipated quarterly data.
Section ONE
charts and tables
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive employment and unemployment
New investment commitments
New businesses and business failures
Profits and stock prices
Inventory investment, buying policy, and sensitive prices
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Production
Income and trade
Wholesale prices
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment expenditures
Cost per unit of output
Inventories
Debt
Interest rates
OTHER U.S. SERIES
Federal budget and military commitments
Reserves, money supply, and financing
Interest rates
Foreign trade
INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Industrial production indexes for selected foreign countries
TABLE
W^
BASIC DATA
APRIL 1966
bed
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS
Average percent change 2
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg
2 Accession rate, manufacturing
30. Nonagri. placements, all industries
3 Layoff rate, manufacturing
4. Temporary layoff, all industries
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
6. New orders, durable goods indus
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus ....
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial .
10. Contracts and orders, plant, equip
11 New capital appropriations, mfg 6
7. Private nonfarm housing starts „
29. New bldg. permits, private housing
38. Index of net business formation ,
13. New business incorporations
.....
14. Liabilities of business failures
15. Large business failures
16. Corporate profits after taxes6.
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg ....
18 Profits per dot. of sales mfg°
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries6.
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks*
21. Change in business
inventories, all
industries6^7
31. Change in book value, 7manufacturing
and trade inventories
4
20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inven-7
tories of materials and supplies
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commitments 60 days or longer *
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries*
25. Change in unfilled7orders, durable
goods industries
23. Industrial materials prices*
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
41 Employees in nonagri. establishments ..
42. Total nonagricultural employment
43. Unemployment rate, total
40. Unemployment rate, married males
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate,
State
46. Help-wanted advertising
47. Industrial production 6
50. GNP in 1958 dollars
Unit of
measure
Hours
Per 100 empl . .
Thous
Per 100 empl..
Thous
do
Bil. dol
do
Mil. sq. ft.
floor space . .
Bil. dol
do
Ann. rate,
thous
1957-59-100..
do
Number
Mil. doi
No. per week..
Ann. rate,
bil dol
1957-59=100..
Cents
percent
1941-43-10...
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
... do
Dec.
1965
Jan.
1966
Feb.
1966
1953 to Mar '65
to date
1965
(without3 (without4
sign)
sign)
41.4
4.9
563
1.3
125
41.5
r4.9
570
1.1
111
41.6
P4.7
600
pl.l
106
P41.6
(NA)
590
(NA)
93
0.5
4.8
1.8
9.2
17.1
0.3
5.4
2.0
6.7
14.8
206
222
219
182
5.0
5.2
23.40
4.58
r23.58
r4.45
r23.6l
r4.59
p24.20
P4.50
3.8
4.2
64.36
5.35
60.04
r5.44
67.48
P5.50
(NA)
9.3
4.7
(NA)
(MA)
Mar '65
to date
(with 5
sign)
Dec/65
to
Jan.
1966
Jan.
to
Feb.
1966
Feb.
to
Mar.
1966
+0.2
+0.1
0.0
+1.0
+1.0
+1.2
+1.6 +15.4
-0.3 +11.2
0.0
+0.2
(NA)
-4.1
-1.7
+5.3
0.0
WA)
+4.5 +12.3
+1.9
-7.8
+1.4 +16.9
2.3
2.6
+0.9
+1.0
+0.8
-2.8
+0.1
+3.1
+2.7
+1.2
+7.8
-6.7
+1.7
+12.4
10.4
9.5
3.3
7.8
+1.1
(NA)
+2.5
-2.0
(NA)
(NA)
-15.5 +12.8
-5.7
+9.0
(NA)
+0.8
(NA)
+1.1
-4.4
+15.3
1,735
116.9
105.9
16,999
128.06
rl,585
111.4
108.7
17,677
111.67
rl,340
rlO-5.1
109.6
17,868
94.59
pi, 512
plU.6
(NA)
(NA)
98.73
7.2
3.6
0.8
2.5
18.7
7.1
4.1
0.9
2.8
27.1
+0.6
+0.3
+0.3
+0.4
-2.7
-8.6
-4.7
+2.6
+4.0
+12.8
48
37
36
36
12.3
14.9
-0.4
+22.9
+2.7
0.0
106.5
105.1
(NA)
r!05.3
(NA)
p!05.6
5.6
0.6
6.0
1.7
0.7
2.4
+1.7
+0.2
-1.0
-1.3
(NA)
+0.2
(NA)
+0.3
4.3
1.3
+0.8
91.73
93.32
92.69
2.5
1.9
+0.2
+1.7
-0.7
P+-8.3
2.3
2.0
-0.1
3.6
4.3
-0.5
-7.0
1.5
1.5
-0.2
-1.1
0.0
(NA)
(NA)
88.88
(NA)
-4.1
-1.8
(NA)
+16.2
r+9.2
(NA)
+2.0
iM-0.9
1*0.9
48
48
46
53
6.5
6.6
-0.2
0.0
-4.2
+15.2
do
63
68
67
68
5.3
2.3
+0.1
+7.9
-1;5
+1.5
... do
72
74
85
86
7.5
5.9
+2.4
+2.8
+14.9
+1.2
+1.09
117.1
iM-1.27
120.5
r+1.17
rl22.9
p+1.23
123.5
0:48
1.3
0.27
1.1
+0.07
+0.7
+0.18
+2.9
-0.10
+2.0
+0.06
+0.5
61,884
68,955
4.1
1.8
r62,148
69,286
4.0
1.9
r62,488
69,079
3.7
1.9
p62,809
69,072
3.8
1.9
0.3
0.4
3.9
5.4
0.4
0.4
2.9
5.1
+0.4
+0.3
+1.7
+2.0
+0.4
+0.5
+2.4
-5.6
+0.5
-0.3
+7.5
0.0
+0.5
0.0
-2.7
0.0
2.3
4.2
2.9
+2.4
0.0
0.0
+11.5
p201
p!52.9
3.0
1.0
3.5
0.8
+2.6
+0.7
-1.1
+0.9
+3.8
+0.9
+5.2
+1.0
1.2
1.5
1.3
1.5
2.1
2.1
+1.5
+2.1
+2.1
p3, 397.1
p56l.O
pl51.2
p25,643
1.6
0.5
0.8
0.9
2.1
0.8
0.8
1.0
+1.3
+0.7
+0.7
+1.0
-1.6
+0.3
+0.7
+0.8
+2.1
+0.9
+1.4
+1.8
+4.1
+0.7
+0.9
+0.7
olOA.O
0.2
0.2
+0.2
+0.3
+O.A
+0.2
do
Percent
Bil. dol
1957-59=100..
Thous
do
Percent
....do
. do
2.6
2.6
2.6
186
1957-59=100..
r!91
184
do
rl50.0
148.7
r!51.4
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
P633.8
6
do.. ..
49. GNP in current
dollars
P714.1
6
57. Final sales
... do
P705 . 8
3,249.6 3,198.1 3,263.9
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y
do
52. Personal income
... do
r557.2
550.9
552.3
do., .
53. Labor income in mining mfg. constr . . .
146.9
147.9
r!49.9
54. Sales of retail stores
24,816 r25,023 r25,472
Mil. dol
55. Wholesale prices, except farm products
and foods
103.1
103.8
1957-59=100..
103.4
Mar.
1966
Current percent change2
(NA)
+1.5
+2.4
+2.7
bed
BASIC DATA
APRIL 7966
TABLE
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS—Continued
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unit of
measure
Dec.
1965
Jan.
1966
Average percent change2
Feb.
1966
Mar.
1966
Current percent change 2
1953 to Mar. '65 Mar. '65 Dec.'65
1965
to date to date
to
(with 5
(without (without
Jan.
sign)3 sign) *
sign)
1966
Jan.
to
Feb.
1966
Feb.
to
Mar.
1966
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and
equipment6.
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg .....
68. Labor 6cost per dollar of real corporate
GNP
64. Book value of mfrs.'1 inventories
65. Book value of mfrs. inventories of
finished goods
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans*
Ann. rate,
bil. dot
1957-59-100 ..
97.8
98^9
99.5
do
Bil.dol
68.0
r68.6
23.1
r23.5
66,729
3.2
0.6
3.9
0.6
+3.9
P99.4
+0.1
+1.1
p69.0
(NA)
0.8
0.5
0.4
0.7
+0.4
+0.7
P23.6
67,266
(NA)
(NA)
0.6
0.8
0.7
1.0
+0.4
+1.0
5.55
2.0
2.8
+2.8
153.0
131.0
-22.0
4.4
3.9
4.3
8.7
6.5
+2.7
+0.9
-2.4
a57.20
(NA)
do.. ...
Mil.dol
Percent
66,107
5.27
+3.3
+0.6
-0.1
+0.9
(NA)
+0.6
(NA)
+1.7
+0.9
+0.4
+0.8
fNA|
(NA)
+ 5.3
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
82 Federal cash payments to public
83. Federal cash receipts from public7
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit
95. Balance, Federal
income and product
account 6 ' 7
90. Defense Dept. oblig. procurement
91 Defense Dept. obligations, total
92 Military contract awards in U S
99. New orders, defense
products
93. Free reserves*7
85 Change in money supply 7
98. Change in 7money supply and time
deposits
110 Total private borrowing 6
Ill Corporate gross savings 76
112 Change business loans . ..
113.
114
115
116
117
Change, consumer installment debt 7 ...
Treasury bill rate*
Treasury bond yields * .
...
Corporate bond yields*
Municipal bond yields*
118 Mortgage yields *
86. Exports, excluding military aid
87 General imports
88 Merchandise trade balance 76 7
89! U.S. balance of payments ' :
a Liquidity balance basis
b. Official settlements basis ^
81.
94
96.
97.
. ...
Consumer prices
Construction contracts value
Unfilled orders, dur. goods indus
Backlog of capital appro., mfg.
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
do
do...
.
126.4
122.5
-3.9
r!46.4
r!25.3
r-21.1
r!42.1
131.7
r-10.4
do
2.5
(NA)
13.8
2.7
Mil dol
1,882
1,521
1,420
(NA)
27.4
17.8
do
do
Bil.dol
Mil.dol
Ann. rate,
percent
5,669
2,915
5,179
2,596
r2.97
r-107
(NA)
(NA)
P3.09
p-251
13.9
24.5
22.5
14.6
14.3
r-2
5,100
2,712
r3.40
-44
+12.36
+7.20
r-2. 88
pf8.52
3.11
+12.36
+7.68
r+1.56
P+-7.56
do
Ann. rate,
mil dol
do.. ..
Ann. rate,
bil. dol.....
do
Percent
. ... do
do
do
do
Mil.dol
do
do
2.53
(NA)
(NA)
+10.84
+7.76
4.36
4.43
4.90
3.54
5.62
2,355.8
2,034.6
+321.2
+14.23
+7.46
4.60
4.43
4.92
3.52
5.70
2,248.6
1,935.5
+313.1
do
do
1957-59=100 . .
do
Bil.dol
do
+7.21
+6.44
4.67
4.61
5.07
3.64
(NA)
2,334.8
1,992.9
+341.9
6.00
2,594.4
(NA)
(NA)
111.0
153
62.53
p!9.40
111.0
149
r63.80
111.7
144
r64.98
+10.7
-19.2
(NA)
-6.6
(NA)
-10.0
(NA)
(NA)
+4.0
-144
-15
+34.4
-42
-12.6
-63
9.07
+0.33
-5.16
-10.08 +11.40
2.52
4.69
+0.05
-4.68
-6.12
11.5
14.5
+5.8
+0.7
98
1.39
0.87
47
1.1
3.96
0.79
+1.4
+4.9
+3.5
+3.39
-0.30
-7.02
-1.02
+5.5
+1.5
+4.1
+3.0
+3.4
2.1
1.0
1.5
1.7
+1.4
+0.9
+1.4
+1.3
0.1
3.8
3.0
0.5
4.2
5.0
121.0
+0.5
-0.3
+0.8
58.4
0.2
6.6
1.4
6.6
-50.2
608
696
-149
0.2
5.0
1.5
7.4
+0.2
+0.3
+1.5
+7.4
+6.00
(NA)
(NA)
-0.30
-0.11
6.7
1.6
1.4
2.5
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
p66.21
(NA)
-17.2
+7.7
-0.5
-11.6
+1.5
-4.3
341
(NA)
(NA)
-2.9
+5.1
-7.0
4.3
pfS.87
(NA)
4.63
4.63
5.28
3.72
6.2
-1.8
+3.3
+2.3
+15.8
0.0
+0.4
-0.6
+1.4
-4.6
-4.9
-8.1
(NA)
+3.8
+3.0
+28.8
+1.66
(NA)
-0.9
+0.4
+4.1
+2.2
+11.1
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+91
0.0
-2.6
+2.0
+0.6
-3.4
+1.8
(NA)
(NA)
+1.9
(NA)
r = revised; p = preliminary; e = estimated; a = anticipated; NA = not available. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by an asterisk (*),
that appear to contain no seasonal movement. See additional basic data and notes in table 2. 2 To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually
fall when general business activity rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3,4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43,
and 45). Percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; see footnote 7 for other "change" qualifications.
^his average is based on month-tononth (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies among the series, covering 1953-65 for
most series. Average computed without regard to sign.
7
Average computed with regard to sign. Quarterly series. Figures are placed in the middle month of quarter.
Since basic data for this series are expressed in plus
or
8
ninus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit of measure
as the basic data, rather than in percent.
This
9
balance represents a provisional estimate, by the Department of Commerce on the basis of official settlements.
Figures are placed in the last month of quarter.
BASIC DATA
APRIL 7966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
Avg,r-workwtfekr=piM. wkrsl, mfg. (hours)
-Accession rate7Hnfg. (per |00 employees)-! - ^ J
:
:
!,
'
Nonagri. placements, all Indus, (thous.)
rate, mfg. [(per 100 employeesinverted sea e
J|mp. layoff, all jindus.(jhous.-inverted j
s|ale. MCD moving avg.-i term)
5. Ayg. weekly initial claims, State unempl. |
i
bed
CHART
APRIL 1966
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
orders, dur. goods indu
orders, roach, fondle
*
i
|i9. ConSjtr. contracts, cori. and j'ndils. (mij. sq. fij of
10. Contracts and orders, plant
11. New capital appropriations,
7.
Pr|ivat0 nonfarm
CD=moving avg -
ts, private housing unit
'!
||
'
BASIC DATA
APRIL 7966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
12
13. New bus. incorporations (thous,)
.rab. of bus. fai ures (mil. dol.nverted
:ale. tyCD moving avg.-6 term)
^— ir—i—
i:
• -;—Hr
4f§^-..*v .^^Luli'UlMi'tilL^if. .,; ..jjjij^
JifiFi f ; IK».
^^li:S?^?t^^ -;i -TiV
o$S$^ ^<>;^:l^'4^ifc
p-?fjP^^giSf?;
^ 3 " ! •;:!lite!l;E?-^^^^t||^
_^
^^^_.. .. .. . ._.._
,. -"-gs~M^~^-^G[3 g,^ 'f^ g;»"pQgn g
bed
1966
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
profits to income originating, corporate!
CHART
BASIC DATA
APRIL 1966
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT —Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
14
I
21. Cnange in bus. inventories
ann. rate, oil. dol.)
trade inventories (ann. rate, bil. dol.
20.
Change in book value, m
i I
i|
materials <ind supplies (enn. rate, bil. dol.
—=^ MrCD- nrw ng
—U .-LI
; percnTrepofffng Ingier Inventories
percent reporting comm tments 60 days! or longer
. _, -. - _, —
_L™_i^. 4 ._
32. Vendor Mrforma e, percent reporting slower deliveries
ange irj unfilled orders, dun goods indys. (bil.
80
$^^
bed
APRIL 1966
BASIC DATA
CHART
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
65
~J
*5
Employees in nonajri. establishments (mi lions) i
CHART
BASIC DATA
APRIL 7966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
. .
„ JL
47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59=1
GNP in 1958 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bill, dol.)
=4?. iGNP In eumntt dollars? Q ann. rate,
57. Final safes, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
bed
APR/t 1966
CHART
BASIC
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT —Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
51. Banlrdebitsr all SMSAY except New iork-(an|r.-ratef trMoK}
~nTTTTTTT
"
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr.
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)
54. $a\ei of retail stores (bil. ;dol.)
55. Wholesale prices! exc. fa m prod, and fcods (index: 195;
BASIC DATA
APRIL 7966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
6L Bus. expend., new plant and equip., Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
J
_._
62. jtabor cosf-per wmt of outputrnifg. <ind*x: 1957-59=100)
Labor-copper dol. of>al corp. GNF, Q (index: 1957-59=100)
_._..j
iL._.J
__
4e-ol mfrs^-invintories (bil, dol
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods (biL dol.)
66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dot.)
67. |jank rates on short-ternrj bus. Iflans, Q (percent)
bed
CHART
fcccf
"MI '966
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
Fed. oish receiplTTrSnT^flic^a
rafC
Fed. cosh surplus or Deficit (i
:
!
111 i Hi i I y iSE in J ([•, i f 17r i
1i!8j^,
-I'-i'njip
""^'i
ngjv 5
in^
;"^,fl
i|^'^
r r ^i
ll
1
i)^
f f luM uJH[iiy][MJ&
'<s r ,,r
,'^^1
^1M
'
I
<|
'
i!
i
5nnZO^^
Wl!
IIP
llil
HWI
illii
ilil§
19
BASIC DATA
APRIL 1966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
85.
Change in money supply (ann. rate, percent, j
MCD moving avg.-6 term)
j
98,1 Change in money supply and time deposits
j (ann. rate, percent. MCD moving avg.—6 term)
Digitized for20
FRASER
Corporate dross sayings
112. Change In business loansi (ann. )rate, bit dol.
MCD moVing avg.—5 term) ^
113. Cnang e i i^-cansom er insia 11 men t de bt (ann^ rate,-bil. dpi.)
" -v
"' * w • " • ' ' ! ' " *?'•.'•''^'v''"" ^ •'*•'•' i-."""*' • -"•*<• "•'"*>-•'*' '•*?•'?; ,\ ''•'••':' *v^i»•" •* "''•*= ' r ^ - - '
bed
bed
BASIC DATA
APRIL 7966
CHART
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
(Nov.) (Out)
P
1948
(J"W
P
T
1949
1950
1951
1952 1953
(Ma?) (MO
P T
(Aug.)
T
1954 1955 1 9 5 6 - 1 9 5 7
1958 1959'
1961 . 1981
1962
1963
!9i4
,1911 1968
lie In to ieai Buffi 1 ail 2; paga §
21
22
BASIC DATA
APRIL 1966
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
Generil imports (bil. dol
MCD Moving cvg.-4 term}
4-terr* movin j avg.
us-^
110 -i
105 |
81. Consuinerl prices
100-»
(instruction cent adj. vt lue lind^x; 1957!.S9=lOt
97. Backlog 4f top. uppropriiitions, Mfg., Q (>il. dol.)
' 196t 1-982, 1983' 1164 ' 1015 • 1 9 6 6
"How to Re.d Charts 1 and 2," page 6
CHART
bed
APRIL 1966
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
International Comparisons
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(JuW
(Aug.)
P
I
(July) (Apr.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
T
See "ta to Reri fcrts 1 and 2" page 8
23
TABLE
BASIC DATA
APRIL 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
NBER Leading Indicators
Year and month
1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing
(Hours)
1962
July .
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November ........
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May..
June
July....
August
September *
October.
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1%6
January
February
March
April
May.
June
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
(Per 100
employees)
40 5
40.3
40 6
4.0 2
-40 4
AQ 2
L 2
4 0
L 0
40 4
40.3
40.4
40 2
40.4
40.5
40.4
40.4
40.6
40.7
40.5
40.6
3 8
3 8
3.8
/i
3.8
3 9
3 &
3 8
3 3
3.9
3 8
3 9
3.9
3 7
4.0
30. Nonagricul- 3. Layoff rate,
tural placements, manufacturing
all industries,
(Per 100
employees)
(Thous.)
5*52
1Q
554
55$
557
546
545
541
543
553
575
533
525
18
19
1 5?
121
107
138
565
51Z
532
521
522
52Q
518
523
507
518
52A
cot
cqq
/
1
Cy T
9
coo
J2 f
epQ
41 5
41.6
QjOp41 , 6
fHl5 0
/ Q
51 A
511
52A
COO
cyq
K.I Q
P4-L
ey 7
P4 /
c/y
^A?
20,5
-cL Q
C7n
n/. 7
[3600
(NAl
(Bil. dol.)
5/", 1
557
/ 0
L 1
1 Q
/ i
/ *
A *;
/ i
(Bil. dol.)
12A
y n
/
(Thous.)
127
127
125
133
120
41 2
41 3
41 0
41 1
41 0
41 0
41 0
40 9
4! 2
41 4
41 4
(Thous.)
2 A
1Q
2 0
2 0
1 Q
Al 2
4.0
24. Value of manufacturers' new
orders, machinery
and equipment
industries
2 3
4 0
3 9
4 0
yi
4 0
8
0
o
9
8
1
6. Value of1 man*
ufacturers new
orders, durable
goods industries
557
40.1
40.6
40.6
40.8
40 6
40.7
40.7
40 8
40 6
40.7
40 9
41.2
3
4
/
3
3
4
5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State
programs T
553
551
1
4. Number of persons on temporary
layoff, all industries
5QO
18
1.9
18
19
2 1
18
1'7
18
17
18
18
18
16
10 /
299
no
310
288
293
288
284
281
2QO
2A5
282
276
101
97
1 5
1 ^
16
1 5
16
n y
1.4
1 /
iy
4,.
4
1. CP
1 .4
/ ,
4
I/
»4
T A
1.17/
I Q
-J
1 . "3J
J10
.J
1 . *3J>
4.
T
I.1
fH^nl
i^yp-L. JLT
/MA}
Q r\7
01
59
55
2Q
73
H
2 9A
? QA
3 05
3 16
1 07
1 25
1 21
3 22
1 15
18 47
18 23
18 78
1Q O/
18
17
18
18
74
68
28
06
1 A 2/
;
3 42
1 2Q
3 33
1 11
iy2
i //
18 62
IA n
1 27
17 Q7
3 61
PA/
270
1Q 7/
i Q <;n
277
1Q 9A
1 62
i yi
•3 yA
122
265
2fl y A
TJ-7.74
O ciy
0 QO
P. 7J
1 7
16
19
")A
16
lA
17
16
17
116
125
QA
9^9
121
118
Ql
1 21
Q2
AQ
10Q
fTTl on
LSJ /7
i
oy
J.<t4
nn
1 no
•
257
2n n2
•3
21 ?5
T O oy
1 77
2A5
1 Q» 7-L
Ql
J-7
1Q Ao
1 Q 4?
/^
17.
2^1
on 70
-c4.2
oy o
O / "2
Ol OT
21.
</
OT
T *3
o-a»7
^2 f
Ol
Ol
norf
-t J f
OO A /
22*U4
on .QQ
<fj
77
21. 1J
222
OT Q
219
[E]182
r23.58
r23.6l
IH]p24.20
InA
QQ
7^
/
r\f)
4-35
> -. /
4.16
OPl£
20
o
ITT
111
O/L
3 .70
oU
3 . ctn
22.20
21.51
i^>
1 O*H
y/
3 . 77
q AQ
^•07
3 7Q
3 eJO
QO
3 .72
21.31
OO TID
A
22.
22. 42
22.39
23.40
rty
Qp
4.U2
y ntt
4*0o
y nof
4«U
4.09
04
jjy
04
i on
\.A\J
i 01 .
1-c.i
T1iU
n
1
1 Al
260
oy y
oy ^
<4!>
oyq
oov
*c^4
224
O"3T
2J1
248
oT 0
4.J.Q
ono
^UV
01 o
212
n i r\
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
24
100
95
92
131
130
108
135
112,
cates revised; "p"t preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
y
^rn
305
/
1 K.
4.15
4.25
4.32
4.58
r4.45
[H]r4. 59
p4.50
bed
BASIC DATA
APRIL 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and industrial buildings
Year and month
(Mil. sq.ft.
floor space)
1962
July
August
September
October
November. .,.*...,
December
1963
January
February
March
Apri 1
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
March
April
May
40.56
42.69
40.96
JllIK* * •
•
*
.
.
October*.,,.
:
December* .
1965
January.. . ,....,
March
,
April.-*,**,.
May.,.,
June
Jufy
;
;
1•
I'
,
August ..........
September
October
November* . . * . * * . .
December
1966
;
January* . . , .
February, ,,,,,...
March.,,
.,j
April. , , , , » * « . , » » . !
May, ,..,.,,...,.
June,*.,, »».....
3 61
41 89
3 99
44.61
45.11
39-42
3.84
3.82
3.75
3.98
e-i n^
11. Newlyapproved 7. New private
capital appropria- nonfarm dwell ing
tions, 1,000 manu- units started
facturing corporations1
(Ann. rate,
thous.)
(Bil. dol.)
1,409
3.72
3.56
3.66
3.82
51 07
July ...... ..,*..
(Bil. dol.)
41,08
42,20
40.23
47 00
51-39
45 78
44 93
43.88
50.81
43 73
45 43
;
10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment
4
3
3
3
28
96
9A
91
2 81
3 35
/
"39
|Hll 7S3
-i 7nA
1 S9"3
AQ
1,475
1,489
1,422
1,495
1 480
4.72
4.67
4.84
4.98
5.02
4.81
5 16
4 90
5.15
5 13
5 05
5.35
60.04
5967.48
(NA)
r5.44
EEIp5-50
(NA)
108
107
109
107
113
112
7
1
1
2
0
0
1
4 81
5 00
/ ^2
1
4.99
5.79
5 85
(H]p6 22
(NA)
^71
1,506
1,496
^7^
1,417
1,468
1,465
1,532
1,501
1,539 •
1 447
1,409
1,436
1,380
1 S31
1,735 i
rl,585
rl , 340
pi, 512
97
98
98
98
98
98
7
4
5
5
0
3
15 171
1 5 0^6
1 5 ?/9
14,892
U
951
I/ 98*1
98.9
100 2
100.5
99 2
99 6
100 0
100 7
101 7
101 4
101 7
101 4
101 8
14,924
16 ?60
i£ m0
/
103 1
102 8
102 9
103.7
105.3
103 9
104.0
103.6
104.8
106.6
105 8
106 8
112.9
108.0
112.0
104 7
109.4
110.6
109 7
107 4
104.1
111.1
113 i
116.9
111.4
r!05.1
pl!4 6
123 7
4.52
4.53
4.51
4.56
53.20
(Mil. dol.)
119 Q
L 6A
58.12
54-04
64 . 26
56.13
55.28
55 90
49 . 60
63.48
60.49
60 33
64.36
(Number)
1 522
47 82
52.62
47 . 72
51.41
53.75
/ 9/
(1957-59-100)
1 ^Q?
L ~n
4.36
4.63
4 92
(1957-59=100)
4 10
/s /i
53.48
46.22
61
14. Current
liabilities of
business failures
1 522
1,676
1 706-
1,285
1,438
1,486
1,652
1 676
1,550
1 *57A
4 38 '
58 88-
13. Number of
new business
incorporations
3 72
3 30
4 56
i ~\ i
38. Index of net
business formation
111.8
108 2
112 9
113 6
120 0
119 3
116 5
113 5
121 0
123 6
2 80
4.08
4 17
L 12
1 531
1,300
1,410
1 634
1 'S?!
29. Index of new
private housing
units authorized
by local building
permits
116 8
n!rn ?j A
121 7
113.6
112 9
"115 l
111.5
113 4
109.7
109.1
110 8
i n<i
15 390
15,563
15,305
15 68?
15 536
1 VZ31
16 093
1 5 9 689
16 275
1 5 7S9
16 867
1 ^ QQ9
107
121
106
129
96
99
98
85
02
87
62
6l
146 . 46
93 05
94 12
88 15
115 OS
91
I//
E52
94
99
?SS
87
07
SO
86
52
9?
7?
17
91 A9
1 ~\ Q. <ci
OQ
1J.7
-i -m £7
15^979
16 074
16,605
16,493
17 103
107 10
97 92
1 3A 1 9
125 14
90 99
118 59
97.98
111 00
17 1 *j/
1 ?£> yo
107.5
107 6
106.1
105 3
105.0
106.8
106 4
106 4
105.3
104 6
105 3
105.9
17,275
17,367
17,112
16,504
16,043
16,671
16 369
16,957
17,138
16, 744
17 A18
16,999
84.54
107.57
146.29
79 51
139.09
135.66
120 64
128 98
108.56
85.67
66 65
128.06
108.7
13109. 6
(NA)
17,677
017,868
(NA)
111.67
94.59
98.73
16, 180
15,917
"1 5 91 Q
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by © for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40r 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by ED. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA"., not available.
pri03? to 1961 not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a recalculation o:f the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products." (See NICE publication, Investment Statistics — Capital Appropriations: First Quarter 1965.)
25
BASIC DATA
APRIL 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
15. Number of
16. Corporate
business failures
profits after taxes
with liabilities of I
$100,000 and over
(Number per
week)
1962
July
August
September
October
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
38
4,5
40
46
42
37
31.5
31.8
/Q
43
42
40
51
38
39
42
43
42
38
38
31 2
32.6
32.8
33.8
41
41
36 7
38
44
"39
"3Q
07 n
. * >
LL
/O
1 ">
19
Io
/n
3*;
/o
/?
07 c
...
07 o
(Cents)
(Percent)
100.2
100.0
100.7
100.2
100.4
99.9
QQ 7
100.1
100.5
100 8
101.3
102.2
101.7
100.9
101 0
101.5
100.8
100.8
101 6
101 9
101.3
101 9
T101
m .^7/
i nn &
im o
im A
-1 pl/-4
11.2
8.1
11.1
8.1
10 8
8.5
11 2
8.6
11.2
8.8
11 3
9 0
11 9
rt d
8.9
.. .
11.7
102, o/_
y / -i
44. 1
.. .
103.3
103.9
9 .0r\
11.7
r~,
8 .7
11.7
09.8
13.0
9.3
12.9
9.4
13.0
9.5
[E13.3
lOjio
103.0
-| f\ I
Q
104.9
I t
r
44.5
...
fwl y c; .7
Q
UU45
\
\WAJ
/>T*
104.4
103.6
105.4
105.1
® 106 , 5
105.1
rl05.3
plO5 . b
-1 pic
/I
(1941-43=10)
(Ann. rate,
bil. do!.)
58.52
58.00
56.17
60.04
62.64
65 06
65.92
65.67
68 76
70.14
70.11
69 07
70.98
72 85
73 03
72 62
74 17
7A /s
77 ^Q
78 80
+5.2
+6.4
+4 5
+4.7
+5.8
+8 1
+t 1
7Q Q/
1U2. (t
o
-I r*Li~)
19. Index of stock 21. Change in
prices, 500 common business inventories
after valuation adstocks*
justment, alt industries
56.97
8.1
fj
lUU.o
i finoi
100.
nm n
1U1 iO
...
^7
^A
36
(1957-59=100)
T (T3 O
OC
in
/ft
22. Ratio of prof its
to income originating, corporate,
all industries
-1 p|O
I1 A
^Q
/^
4?
/q
18. Profits (before
taxes) per dollar of
sales, all manufacturing corporations
T PlO ^.
102
.0
00
try
4f
/7
17. Ratio, price to
unit labor cost
index, manufacturing
(NA)
(NA)
80.72
80.24
83-22
82.00
83.41
84.85
85.44
83.96
86.12
86.75
86.83
87.97
89.28
85.04
84.91
86.49
89.38
91.39
92.15
91.73
[393.32
92.69
88.88
3
91.71
+4.1
+3.8
+7.5
+8.8
.. .
+6,4
+7,6
.. .
[Hi+io.i
.. .
P+8.3
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by rjD for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5,14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by 0. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; <(e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
®s February 1962.
2
Average for April 15, 18, and 19.
26
BASIC DATA
APRIL 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
31. Change in
book value of manufacturing and
trade inventories,
total
20. Change in
book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials
and supplies x
37. Purchased
materials, percent
reporting higher
inventories
26. Production
materials, percent
reporting commitments 60 days or
longer*
32. Vendor performance, percent
reporting slower
deliveries*
25. Change in unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
23. Index of industrial materials
prices*
(Ann. rate,
bii. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Percent
reporting)
(Percent
reporting)
(Percent
reporting)
(Bil. dol.)
(1957-59=100)
1962
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November.
December
1964
January
»•
March
April
May
7
* . ;
June
July
August
September
October . . .
November.
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November.
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May,
, *
June
+3.9
+2.0
+ 5.6
+ 5.5
+1.2
+5.1
-2.4
-0.3
+1.8
-0.2
+0.5
-1.7
44
45
43
46
50
49
58
52
52
55
52
51
44
44
48
48
48
48
-0.25
-0.60
-0.36
+0.21
-0.40
+0.91
94.2
94.5
94.0
94.9
96.4
95.8
+3.1
+2.5
+3.0
+4. 6
+2.7
+5.1
+6.0
+1.8
+5.6
+7.1
+9.6
+7.2
+0.6
-0.2
+0.9
-0.3
+0.7
-0.5
+1.7
-0.4
+1.7
-0.2
-0.7
47
48
47
48
55
56
55
50
49
46
43
43
50
55
54
53
52
57
54
55
56
53
54
55
50
52
54
60
58
54
42
48
52
48
48
46
+0.96
+0.68
+0.94
+0.85
+0.33
-0.58
-0.54
-0.05
+0.38
+0.10
-0.09
-0.40
95.5
95.1
94.4
94.5
95.2
93.9
94.2
94.2
94.1
96.3
97.3
97.7
+5.1
+2 3
+3 7
+8.0
+4-3
+2.2
+1.2
+2.9
+10.7
+0.4
+9.4
+U.6
-1.9
-0.5
0 0
-1.0
-0.1
-0.7
-1.6
+1.3
+2.6
+4.3
+3.5
+2.Q
42
50
54
53
51
55
57
56
60
58
60
58
53
54
56
59
58
59
58
58
61
60
64
65
55
54
60
60
63
55
59
65
74
72
70
66
+0.40
+0.57
+0.16
+1.04
+0.38
+0.81
+1.26
+0.06
+0.77
+1.00
+0.27 +0.55
+11.2
+5 0
+13 8
+8 7
+9.4
+6 1
+11 6
+8 1
+3 4
+8.2
+10.2
+1 0
+0 4
+2 5
60
61
57
El) 61
60
58
57
60
58
45
50
48
65
65
68
67
65
62
62
63
61
63
63
63
68
r+9 2
r+0 9
p+0 9
(NA)
/g
46
53
68
67
[El 68
7/
|n}fl6 2
(NA)
+0.4
+5 3
+1 5
-0 5
+0 7
+1 /
+3 1
+0 9
+1 0
+2 0
72
66
72
70
66
62
6A
62
60
66
72
85
IE 86
98.5
98.5
98.9
102.4
100.9
101.4
102.5
105.7
108.2
112.0
113.2
112.5
+0 32
+0.81
+0.44
+0 84
+0 50
+0 58
+0 3?
+0 32
+1 24
[H}+I 28
+0 78
+1 09
110 6
110.7
113 2
116 7
116 9
115 3
114 6
115 2
114 8
115 0
115 6
117 1
r+1 27
r+1 17
rn-1 ?3
120 5
r!22 9
0123 5
S
122 0
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by OH for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5,14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by0. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indices revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
® = December 1961.
2
Average for April 14, 15, and 18.
27
TABLE
BASIC DATA
APRIL 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and month
41. Number of employees, in nonagricultural establishments
(Thous.)
42. Total non43. Unemployment
agricultural employ- rate, total
ment, labor force
survey
(Thous.)
(Percent)
40. Unemployment
rate, married
males
46. Index of help45. Average
wanted advertising
weekly insured
unemployment rate, in newspapers
1
State programs
(Percent)
(Percent)
(1957-59=100)
47. Index of industrial production
(1957-59-100)
1962
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
;....
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
•*..:::::::::::
June
55,637
55,703
55,796
55,830
55,879
55,880
62,547
63,018
63,161
63,110
62,919
63,334
5.5
5.7
5.6
5.4
5.8
5-5
3.6
3.7
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
4.2
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
110
108
107
107 :
107
e!07
119.0
119.0
119.7
119.1
119.0
119.4
55,897
56,027
56,142
56,353
56,488
56,562
56,670
56,727
56,856
57,008
57,038
57,205
63,086
63,219
63,462
63,716
63,579
63,791
63,974
64,089
64,306
64,245
64,347
64,399
5.7
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.8
5.5
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.3
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.1
4.3
e!07
e!09
e!08
109
105
104
109
105
107
111
112
118
119.8
120.6
121.9
122,7
124.4
125.6
125.6
125.4
125.7
126.1
126.1
127.0
57,252
57,606
57,694
57,781
57,864
58,033
58,190
58,301
58,499
58,370
58,879
59,163
64,621
65,084
65,208
65,765
65,774
65,472
65,581
'65,682
65,697
65,730
66,133
66,426
5.6
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.1
5.4
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.2
4.9
5.0
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.8
3.0
2.4
2.6
4.3
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.6
116
117
118
120
118
121
124
123
126
127
134 .
137
127.9
126.4
129.3
130.8
131.6
132;0
133.3
134.0
134.0
131.6
135.4
136.1
59,295
59,581
59,814
59,846
60,032
60,290
60 ,.501
60,6?1
60,756
61,001
61,472
61,384
66,719
66,718
66,895
66,919
66,947
67,434
67,979
67,815
67,879
68,010
68,641
68,955
4.8
5.0
4.7
4.8
4.6
4.7
4.5
4.5
4.4
4-3
4.2
4.1
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.6
2.2
2.1
2.0
ED1.8
3.4
3.3
3.1
3.1
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.6
137 !
145
148
143
145
146
145
152
160
168
181
186
138.6
139.2
140.7
140.9
141.6
142.7
144.2
144. i>
143.5
145.1
146.4
148.7
2.6
2.6
E'2.3
184
r!91 ,
rl50.0
rl51.4
SJP152.9
r62,148
r 62, 488
LEp62,809
£169,286 •
69,079
69,072
4.0
•S3. 7
3.8
1.9
1.9
1.9
[S]p201
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by IE for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 f 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by 0. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
28
bed
BASIC DATA
APRIL 7966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
Year and month
50. Gross
49. Gross
national product national product
in 1958 dollars in current
dollars
1962
(Ann. rate,
bit. doi.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
57. Final sales 51. Bank debits, 52. Personal
(series 49 minus all SMSA's exincome
series 21)
cept New York
(224 SMSA's)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
2,311 3
JU|y
August
September ........
October.
November * - . . * .
December. .....
533 6
1963
i
January/. .........
February ......
March* * * ....... .J
April** • » , * * « - . . J
July * .... . ; . . . . J
August .*....... .
September *
<
October*,........'
November*
December
•
1964
\
January
*.
February • ...... • •
564.4
538.5
572.0
565.6
541 2
577 0
572 5
544 9
583 1
578 4
553.7
593 1
587.3
560.0
603.6
595.5
567.1
614.0
610.7
•
Marrft
Anri tf
May
, f"
*
June
. ••
July
i
August
September .
October...
i
November.
December.
1965
January
February
^
March'.,....
Aprif
,.
May
.
June *•.
July
August
September ..... , .
October
November.
December
1966
January
February ......
March
April
May..........
.
. y'
June
575.9
624.2
620 . 1
582.6
634.8
631.0
584.7
641.1
633.6
597.7
657.6
648.8
603.5
668.8
662.4
613.0
681.5
673.9
624.4
697.2
687.1
EDp633.S
[R]p714.1
•Ep705 . 8
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
443 4
444 6
447.0
447 . 9
450.4
452 6
118 8
118 7
119.5
118.9
119.7
119 7
2,416.2
2 345.9
2,357.2
2 , 472 . 5
2 419 2
2 368 2
2,561.0
2 , 463 . 1
2,559.0
2,605 5
2,527.4
2 610 2
456.6
454 9
456.7
457.2
463 1
464.8
467.1
469.3
473.2
474.7
478 9
120.1
120 0
120 . 8
120.7
122 0
123 0
123.3
123.4
124.4
125.1
125.7
127 1
2,571.5
2,590.3
2 597 3
2,693.8
2,688.4
2,607.4
2,746.7
2,681.7
2,755.9
2,771.5
2,730.3
2,803.5
481.2
483.2
/.8A 5
487.7
491.2
492.8
496.1
499.5
501.7
502.8
506.6
512.0
126.5
127.9
128 3
129.5
130.3
130.9
131.5
132.6
133.8
132.6
135.1
137.3
2,803.3
2 , 845 . 1
2,923.8
2,962.0
2,871.5
3,019.4
3,021.0
3,018.8
3,022.6
3,068.9
3,178.9
3,249.6
515.4
515.2
517.8
520.5
525.0
528.5
530.4
532.1
545.4
541.3
546.1
550.9
552.3
r557.2
|H]p56l.O
2 268 8
2,236.7
2,340.7
2,351.5 :
2 324 9
559 2
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
53. Labor income 54. Sales of
in mining, manu- retail stores
facturing, and
construction
3,198.1
3,263.9
D±p3, 397.1
460 o
(Mil. dol.)
55. Index of
wholesale prices
except farm
products and foods
(1957-59-100)
Revised1
19,597
19,654
19,880
19,901
20 , 062
20,204
100 9
100 8
100.9
100.9
100.8
100 7
20,319
20 226
20 , 374
20,292
20,178
20 517
20,634
20,581
20,489
20 , 774
20 , 727
?0 96?
100.5
100 5
100.5
100.4
100.5
100.8
100.9
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.9
101.1
21 0??
21 , 701
21 797
21,862
22,227
22,333
21,429
21,690
22,766
101 1
101 2
101 2
101 2
101.1
101 0
101.2
101.2
101.3
101.5
101.6
101.7
137.3
138.4
139.7
138.8
139.6
140.4
141.4
142.1
142.2
143.6
145.6
146.9
22,936
23 , 262
22,856
22,849
23,317
23,322
23,668
23,585
23,753
24,194
24,647
24,816
101.7
101.9
102.1
102.2
102.3
102.6
102.6
102.8
102.9
102.8
103.2
103.1
147.9
r!49.9
r25,023
r25,472
[H]p25 , 643
103.4
103.8
[Hjpl51.2
21 408
pi one
21 AZ.?
[E>pl04.0
S
104 0
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by [H] for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are Hindicated
by [H]. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page il.
Week ended April 12.
3
BASIC DATA
APRIL 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
Year and month
61. Business expenditures on new
plant and equipment, total
62. Index of labor
cost per unit of
output, manufacturing
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
(1957-59=100)
68. index of labor 64. Book value of
manufacturers'
cost per dollar of
real corporate GNP inventories
(1957-59=100)
(Bil. dol.)
65. Book value of
manufacturers'
inventories of finished goods
66. Consumer installment debt
(Mil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
67. Bank rates on
short-term business
loans, 19 cities*
(Percent)
1962
July
August
September
October
November
38.35
37,95
100.7
100.9
100.4
100.6
100.3
100.7
103.3
103.3
56.9
57.0
57.3
57.4
57.6
57.8
19.5
19.5
19.7
19.7
19.8
19.8
45,200
45,588
45,838
46,206
46,689
47,174
57.9
58.0
58.1
58.3
58.5
58.7
58.9
58.9
59.1
59.3
59.8
60.1
19.9
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.1
20.3
20.3
20.4
20.6
20.6
21.0
21.2
47,659
48,154
48,631
49,152
49,593
50,079
50,588
51,069
51,410
51,941
52,324
52,784
60 0
60.1
60.3
60.5
60.5
60 4
60.5
60.8
61.0
61.8
62 4
62.9
21 2
21.4
21.4
21.6
21.6
21 5
21.6
21.6
21.6
21.8
21 9
22.2
53.212
53,791
54,315
54,727
55,220
55,590
56,073
56,508
57,021
57,431
57 732
58,292
63 2
63 4
63.7
64 0
Ay ^
64 6
65 4
65 8
66 3
66 6
22
22
22
22
PP
L
4
5
3
/
pp
0
58 962
59 603
60 , 240
60 984
AT A^y
AP P^A
62 922
A? ^m
Ay °T i
Ay ou^
ftm
04,
A*; ,yAn
op
4DU
4.99
5.02
1963
January
February
March.
April
May
, '•
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May....
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
36.95
38.05
40.00
41.20
42.55
43.50
45.65
47.75
49.00
50 35
52.75
'!E]55.35
a57.20
100.6
100.2
99.7
99.5
99.3
98.7
99.3
100.1
99.7
99.8
100.0
ioo.o
99.3
99.1
99.7
99.3
99.3
100.0
99.7
99.5
100.3
El 101. 2
99.5
98.9
98.7
99.1
98.7
99.4
QQ 3
99 0
98.1
98.9
99.5
98 6
98 6
97 8
98 9
99.5
P99.4
104.0
104.2
103.9
104.7
104.2
104,6
105.1
106.3
105.1
106 1
106 2
[3106 4
pp A
A7 9
PP 7
PP Q
A# n
O.-L
•nAj* A
(NA)
?? S
pp c
Utl]p69 0
(NAl
p-3
T
r^J. :;C.
_OQ
(Tji — p-a
£
f\NA.)
MA>
AA 1 D7
AA
bo, '•7OQ
72V
fRiA'? oAA
(wh\
\NA)
5.00
5.01
5.01
5.00
4.99
4.99
4.98
5.00
4 97
y QQ
c nri
...
5 .-c017f
.. .
rjTjc ce
^Jp.P?
a58.90
NOTE:. Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by 0 for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15r 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by 0. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and 1(NA"., not available.
30
bed
BASIC DATA
APRIL 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
Year and month
1962
82. Federal cash
payments to the
public
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
July
113 5
108,1
113. -4
113 7
118 6
August
September
October
November
December
..
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September ........
October
November
December
1964
January
•
11A 9
112. 4
109.6
116.6
113.5
116.3
115.3
120.5
121.9
119.9
122.0
119.3
117.2
125.9
119 2
120 4
122.6
119.1
116.7
122.8
121.6
117.9
118. 4
112.9
126.5
Fphrnarv
Marrh
April
May
June...::.:...:.
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January.. . .
February .........
121.7
121,8
117.4
125.1
128.7
133.3
120.2
129.5 .
137.7
124.. 2
U6.1
126.4
March
April
May
June
Julv
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
, '
June
r!46.4
r 142.1
153.0
83. Federal cash
receipts from the
public
(Ann. rate,
bit. do!.)
92. Military prime
95. Surplus (+) or 90. Defense
91. Defense
deficit (-), Federal Department obliga- Department obliga- contract awards to
U.S. business firms
income and product tions, procurement tions, total
account
84. Federal cash
surplus (+) or
deficit (-)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
110.4.
107.7
108.4
107.1
110.1
108 4
-3.1
-0.4
-5.0
-6.6
-8.5
-6.5
108.6
109.9
110.5
108.0
-3 8
+0 3
-6.1
-5 5
-2 3
-2 6
-7 6
-5 4
-7.3
-7 3
-4.4
+0 9
114.. o
112.7
112.9
116.5
112.6
114,. 7
114.9
118.1
-10 0
+1 3
-3 3
-1.2
-10.4
-2.9
-8.8
-9.9
-4.9
-3.3
+2.0
-12.0
115 9
120 5
117 1
121.4
108.7
113.8
114.0
111.7
113.0
115.1
114.9
114.5
113.8
120.2
124.6
153.4
119.9
119 6
122 1
121.9
-7.9
-1.6
+7.2
+28.3
-8.8
-13.7
+1.9
-7.6
-16.3
-9.2
-17 4
-3.9
121.4
115 0
128 7
122 5
7*1 OC
"3
T
91
~\
1 Q-l
<7
-r>
~\ Pi
/
T -a-t
r»
oo n
(Mil. dol.)
-2.6
-3.2
-2 5
+1.8
+0 6
+1.2
-26
1 657
-3.6
-1.1
4 517
4,385
3,892
4,535
4,920
4,140
2,017
2,149
2,111
2,983
2,734
1,984
1,586
1,206
1,366
1,215
1,358
1,363
1,132
1,700
1,207
2,010
1,094
1,273
4,632
4 137
4,233
4,078
4,507
4,481
4,349
4 580
4,160
5,112
4,093
4,371
2,198
2.435
2,154
1,966
2,240
2,334
2,419
2,733
2,578
2,086
1,681
2,079
1,075
1 843
4 351
5 317
/ 1 33
4,544
4,818
4,349
4,677
4,237
4,405
3,773
4,228
5,325
2,149
2 689
1,389
1,910
1,079
1,494
803
1,141
889
1,089
1,747
1 r\r\£
4-^ 6
i ..
1
7f)fl
y OOQ
4,27o
•3 QQQ
-?,OJ>7
3*;*;
> Ao /
4,0^4
tit
J.,444
i ) no
l,4U*i
-i
•4-3 ft
•* .
_p q
• .*
T
ft,
fwi\
\NA}
(Mil. dol.)
1,395
1,040
1,675
1,787
1,205
1 217
-7.6
(Mil. dol.)
O^/
1,<O4
1
1
T
1 OJJ
rj t -i
X, /4-L
1 t *7< TO
J<I r j 0-3
, tJJ
1O1 O
t£j-<C
1QCJO
1,521
1,420
/.T . \
(NA)
1 *5Q&
2,508
2,454
1,879
2,904
1,926
2,191
1,745
2,008
1,883
4,962
4,896
LLr\
5 ,669
1,830
1,628
1,874
2,926
2,025
2,438
2,699
2,770
2,465
2,566
2,679
2,915
5,100
5,179
(NA)
2,712
2,596
(NA)
4,!>y.?
/
CQO
4,630
4, 520
4,258
OOO
5 ,223
5,276
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
31
BASIC DATA
APRIL 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
99. New orders,
defense products
93. Free reserves*
(Bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
Year and month
85. Change in
total U.S. money
supply
98. Change in
money supply and
time deposits
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
110. Total private
borrowing
111. Corporate
gross savings
112. Change in
business loans
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
oil. dol.)
1962
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
2 07
1 94
1 88
? OQ
1 70
8Q
09
A?
97
40
,Q
/ 0
Q9
4-y
4-A y n
J--37C
w n#
j.C 9A
+/ Q?
4-A 7A
2.18
2 37
2 48
2 34
+138
+l6l
+11?
+91
+Q/
+33
+209
+1 Q6
+7 08
+6 36
+? /n
4-Q nn
+2 40
4-A / A
i 0 n£
~n #/
+17*5
+89
+99
+^ Q6
4-A 1A
+167
4.0 -i o
i c
0 00
+7 sn
+1
+8 S2
4.0 d /
_ut> /n
?D
U. ^A
qy
•O4
1 79
1 87
ftft
4-ft
+1 1 n/
+/ ^A
+ft^
+8Q
+1 oA
2 L~\
4-A ?y
+7 08
+1 *iA
+? /n
i o
j./
+168
„ 1 1 pi£
r-f5
r> ~\ nc
r-loO
-1 tjp,
_ -i jjo
+4. 5D
+A nn
8 -1 L
4-1
^ y/
+1.2.44
-i ri t
r-174
1 "3 /
r-lji4
-1*1
r-144
„ T jx
r-14o
j C
T /L
o^,
+Q / A
in 90
r-Q3
-44
r-107
p-251
^A
. T -|
„ rto
r-2
4-/
4.1
yy
+1. 44
„
+1 o qA
i 0
f
Qp|
O rtft
Ti J A
P+o.
i C
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&&
4-y / /
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4-?
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yo Tny
y 9 AAA
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y ? ,son
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...
CT jU4U
nyn
51
...
y c 52U
con
45,
...
CO
y c. ooy
45,224
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y n/ j 212
OT o
4
y e AcA
40,050
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rt
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Ay A y n
y Q ^nfi
47 j JJUb
co
AAy
52,oo4
Cn
58,460
49,412
/ -3 Tri/.
bjJ,37o
55,1QO
68,972
54,732
60 , 020
55,580
T OA
50,196
rtrt
+D. VD
4.Q on
-i_A
QA
0.00
-I.T
o oO
An
+12.
, Q rro
+ 7.72
+10 , 80
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24
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QA
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, r;
Op.
1 1 oJo*3A
+12.
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y -a
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yn
4-O QC
+2.^5
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+1.7 /
j_o
ny
+2.U4
4-O nrt
, y ^^
+4. oo
, c 22
no
+5*
p72,972
4-1 70
+ 1. 'V
, "2
t rt
+,j.4o
+1.
CO
i -i pi
i t
+1U.44
-J-r7 QO
+ ( • 7<C
,n
+1.4^
-ui y o
i-i rtc
+1 . 05
, •!
.. .
4-Q
y ft
+ 7. 4"
j_£i U4
ny
+o.
• O ort
+2. 2o
, pi QC
+U.V5
, c rirt
+ 5. /O
rfQ
4-Q
~\ O
+7.1<c
dc
+J. o5
,o fto
4.0
i-l
n£
00
-i-9 AA
j_o rto
+2.
o2
+7. f <
4-ft 7A
c;A
i o oo
o oc*
•wj-^A
rjC
OS'
/ q 7CA
4P»
/Do
+7 AS
CO
+ C
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41
/p2
.. .
.a on
*lA
+/ n&
+? ?/
y c o yrt
4? i ^4U
...
C>f)
-4-T
+82
3.29
i ~\ fj
+?AQ
+^1 3
+2A7
+120
+135
1 86
1 98
r3 40
r2 97
p3 09
cA
••+301
2 4.0
3.28
2.57
2.53
+/
4-/
Q9
+
4-7
^-
2.67
46
58
62
81
45
no
+9A&
1.48
2
2
2
2
3
U
+/ 0£
2 40
2 36
2 47
I 92
1
.97
3.24
+*i n/
n &y
-1 68
+/V3
1.90
2 37
2 44
2 46
-0 84
+/1Q
+ 37*5
+/ T Q
? *n
?
2
2
1
2
+//0
p56,244
1 0
42
+3.17
+4.25
, O rtn
+3.B9
j_y *3T
+4.31
+4.78
+4.28
+1.43
+0.32
+8.62
+12.35
+13.14
+12.46
+6.32
+11 . 04
+11.38
+10 . 00
+5.53
+4.00
+5.33
+0.32
+10.84
/ rt
+7. bo
r+1. 56
_ , rj
p+
/. c/1
5o
/., . \
(NA)
(MA)
+14.23
+7.21
p+8.87
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The 'V indicates revised; "p" preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
32
bed
BASIC DATA
APRIL 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
Year and month
113. Net change in
consumer installment debt
114. Treasury bill
rate*
115- Treasury bond
yields*
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
1962
July
.
August
September
October
November
December
/Q
+4.66
+3.00
+4.42
+5.80
+ 5.82
1963
January ....*..
February
March
April
May
June
*....
July
+/
..
August
September ........
October
November. .....*..
December
? Q/
2,84
2 . 79
2,75
2.80
2 86
+5 82
+5 94
+5.72
+6 25
+5.29
+5.83
+6 1]
+5.77
+4.09
+6.37
+4 60
+5.52
2
?
2
?
2
3
3
3
+5 14
1 *>?
? *;?
91
Q?
90
Q1
92
00
14
32
3.38
3 45
3 52
3 52
4
3
3
3
3
3
02
98
94
89
87
87
3 SQ
93
Q7
Q7
00
01
99
04
07
"11
/ /i
/
4
/
4
4
39
28
27
23
28
/ pp
/ 2*;
4 26
y oc
/ 3*;
/ 32
/ qy
/ ^n
AO
"36
/p
/Q
/ 1L
A
/
y
/
1 -\ c.
y yo
1 ~\ /
1 1 ft
y
86. Exports excluding. military aid
shipments, total
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
"3 Q2
3
^
3
4
4
3
4
4
/
116. Corporate bond 117. Municipal bond 118. Mortgage
yields*
yields*
yields*
(Mil. dol.)
£O
3 , Pft
5 . crt
!?o
1 2?
G
3n
6 56
1 0?
c
C7
cc
^ o/
*1 ^/
"3 07
C
C"3
? 10
r
cp
•3
o
5 . y40
T C
P. J-P
3
0^
?in
5 / 7
. 4f
C
/(^
1C.
•2
-1 1
5. 4«
e yc
5. 4P
T
21
C.
P. 4-?
^ 2P
yc
5 .45
^ 1 ^
->. 4->
c /c
3
•3
20
on
o on
-?OU
•3
po
c
/ c
yc
5 «45
1£
6 • 45
5 .45
y^
nfQ Q
I ,749.o
/
1,70*5
f\JJ .4
i
cn o ^
1»7-IU._?
Icy / 7
, 544 . f
1 7pQ 7
o o
I,cjy
o4-? . J
Q^7
T
70 f . J
2 1 OO 1
OAQ 1
1,VD7.1
'QI (^ e.
I,V15.5
Irto^i ft
1
7Q1
1,
f 7± 1
.1
I ftyi i
i
ooc;
^
1,7U5 * J
1 Qft^ ^
ney p
Ij754«
*i
Inec
o
j755.o
2,1iup
o*^ .4
y
1964
January
February
March
Apri 1
May
June
July
August
September
October
November.
December
1965
January
February
March
April
.......
May....
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
+6 Q c
+6 29
+4-94
+5.92
+4.44
+5.80
Q
ce
+5.22
+6.16
+4.92
+3.61
+6.72
3.48
3 48
3,48
3 48
3.51
3.53
3.58
3 62
3.86
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
/
4
+8.04
+7.69
+7.64
+8.93
+8.04
+7.22
+7.99
+7.31
+8.20
+7.07
+7.88
+7 76
3.83
3.93
3.94
3.93
3.90
3.81
3.83
3.84
3.91
4.03
4.08
4.36
4 14
4 16
4.15
4.14
4 14
4 15
4.19
4.25
4.2S
4 34
4.43
+7.46
+6 44
4.60
4.67
4.63
4.43
4 61
4.63
CNA)
20
16
13
13
14
16
16
1?
14
L IS
-20
/ 45
yc
A.
4
/
4
/
4
49
/ft
49
/^
&3
A /Q
L AQ
/ /7
/ LI
L LL
4 44
4 49
/ /ft
4 52
4 57
4 57
4.66
4 71
4 69
4 75
2,057.8
5.45
? 2ft
e y e
2,075.2
2nAi o
Q
2 , n/
UA7/ O
2 O 7 A c,
9 1 1 ft A
P OQQ ft
2 oAl O
1 ^A y
2 ,150.4
2 ,o<!(Jo
n A .*d
o
2 ,4^:0.1
y oA i
•3 pn
?
^
?
^
?
^
^
20
1ft
1Q
2^
2^
1 ft
1 ^
3 06
3 09
3 18
5
e
e
^
c
e
^
. 145
ye
y£
/A
y £.
/e
^
5 . y45
c
ye
e y e
5 .45
e /e
•3
T C
*> / S
e y e
?
17
c
/c
? 2/,
•2 27
5
yy
3 2A
1 ^S
•3 /n
e,
yA
e
/Q
0
/^
q c/
4.92
3 52
3 64
3 72
5.28
2 jUjy.o
mo A
1 C.
5 .45
/ QO
5 07
5 .45
yc
££
3 , 99
1y
3 .14
9S}
3 ,XiO
c yy
5 .44
e y e
5 .CT
51
C
£o
5 .D^.
e 70
fMfi^
6 00
1 21 / A
1 'iQft #
p 7ey o
2 ,O»7Q
.? /V ./I o
2 PAO 9
pon .<£
o
2 ,*£^U
oec .c5
2 3t*c55
2-30n Q
T
2 , qpy
j)<;4« 1
2 ^/ 1 A
2 y oft 9
2 OGC Q
2 248 6
? ^V ft
2,594 4
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except tnose that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e'f, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
33
BASIC DATA
APRIL 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
Year and month
87. General im- 88. Merchandise 89. Excess of receipts (+) or pay- 81. Index of con- 94. Index of construction conports, total
ments (-) in U.S. balance of payments sumer prices
trade balance
tracts, value
(series 86 minus
series 87)
b. Official
a. Liquidity
balance basis settlements
basis1
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
(Bil. dol.)
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing 2
(Bil. dol.)
1962
J U |y
August
September
October
November . ,
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November ........
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.....
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
1,346.6
1,345.9
1,471.4
1,314.6
1,424.9
1,376.5
'+403.2
+357.5
+438.9
+230.1
+303.8
+466.8
1,099.9
1,510.4
1,434.7
1,414.4
1,416.2
1,430.9
1,449.6
1,497.4
1,442.9
1,454.5
1,465.2
1,477.8
-112.6
+611.7
+484.4
+501.1
+480.6
+360.2
+391.5
+407.9
+542.6
+499.7
+490.6
+627.6
1,418.1
1,458.8
1,518.0
1,537.2
1,530.1
1,514.0
1,573.2
1,608.1
1,563.4
1,550.5
1,697.7
1,641.9
+621.5
+599.0
+557.2
+523.8
+517.2
+562.5
+545.4
+491.7
+697.6
+605.9
+508.5
+784.2
1,192.7
1,599.6
1,861.0
1,832.9
1,789.0
1,829.5
1,663.1
1,763.6
1,806.8
2,005.9
1,903.3
2,034.6
+21.9
-0.8
+893.8
+546.7
+471.2
+400.7
+592.4
+569.3
+517.3
+335.7
+504.9
+321.2
1,935.5
1,992.9
(NA)
+313.1
+341.9
(NA)
-433
-711
(NA)
(NA)
-1,199
(NA)
-1,108
(NA)
-210
-153
(NA)
(NA)
-257
-136
-582
....
r-49 ,
-593
+46
-1,366
r-658
r-782
r-587
r+258
r+234
r-517
r+222
r-384
r-1,033
(NA)
(NA)
105.3
105.5
105.9
105.8
105.8
105.9
117
118
113
117
123
138
44.33
43.73
43.37
43.58
43.18
44.09
106.1
106.1
106.2
106.3
106.4
106.7
106.9
107.1
106.9
107.0
107.2
107.7
121
130
118
125
144
135
126
132
128
146
144
148
45.06
45.74
46.68
•47.53
47.86
47.28
46.74
46.70
47.07
47.17
47.08
46.68
107.8
107.7
107.8
108.0
108.1
108.1
108.1
108.2
108.3
108.4
108.6
108.9
147
143
140
138
138
138
140
121
131
136
143
154
47.07
47.64
47.80
48.84
49.22
50.04
51.30
51.37
52.14
53.14
53.41
53.96
109.0
109.0
109.1
109.5
109.9
110.2
110.0
110.0
110.1
110.3
110.6
111.0
137
140
141
152
145
139
149
139
147
147
141
153
54.28
55,09
55.53
56.37
56.88
57.45
57.83
58.15
59.38
60.66
61.44
62.53
pl9i40
111.0
111.7
(NA)
149
144
(NA)
r63.80
r64.98
p66.21
(NA)
$'.26
s'.Bl
8.88
9^38
10*. 05
11*02
12 '.08
13^23
14^54
14^97
15!o6
17! 06
isii?
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those tnat appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised- "p" preH
liminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
*This balance represents a provisional estimate "by the Department of Commerce on the basis of official settlements.
Data prior to 1961 not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products." (See NICE publication Investment Statistics—Capital Appropriations: First Quarter 1965.)
34
bed
BASIC DATA
APRIL 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
International Comparisons
Year and month
1962
123. Canada,
47. United
States, index of index of indusindustrial produc- trial production
tion
(1957-59=
100)
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
M ar rh
Aoril
M .
June.:::::::.:::
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
(1957-59=
100)
122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
121.0ECD,1
European countries, index of
industrial
production
125. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
120
120
113
114
115
110
113
110
120
121
122
123
124
126
126
125
126
126
126
127
120
121
122
122
123
123
121
123
125
126
128
131
110
111
113
114
115
115
116
118
117
120
121
121
128
128
12Q"
131
132
132
133
134.
134
132
135
138
133
134
123
139
1?3
1P3
1 3Q
135
133
133
134
135
135
136
139
140
124
123
123
122
123
123
127
128
129
139
139
141
141
142
143
144
144
144
145
146
149
142
141
143
142
142
143
144
147
148
149
151
153
130
129
128
129
129
128
r!29
129
r!29
129
129
131
r!4*
~r!45
150
151
pi 53
p!53
(NA)
pl31
(MA)
pi 50
119
119
120
119
120
119
118
119
119
119
1 33
125
130
126. France,
index of industrial production
(1957-59=
100)
125
126
127
127
128
127
131
132
132
133
132
125
126
128
128
126
127
126
127
130
131
132
132
132
129
128
132
133
133
139
134
136
136
138
140
139
127
125
116
129
133
134
• 135
136
136
140
139
141
139
138
137
140
143
143
143
143
145
146
146
145
146
148
149
148
r!49
(NA)
142
1 //
i /s
140
150
143
147
145
145
149
149
149
156
1^*;
149
T5A
155
134
129
129
136
137
136
138
140
"t 3Q
1 3Q
127. Italy index 128. Japan, index
of industrial
of industrial
production
production
(1957-59=
100)
151
149
150
153
158
160
172
169
219
pp/
203
202
207
211
214
217
173
ppy
168
166
164
166
156
165
166
168
168
226
228
233
232
232
239
241
237
242
137
1AA
-] qq
1 AQ
166
i AQ
o /o
t-bJ
141
140
141
132
132
141
142
142
138
139
140
130
1/P
iyy
T *7^
-i-/.?
1 7&
156
ISA
153
1/3
-L4-3
146
146
148
1 S7
p!58
1J /
nl/Q
(NA)
180
181
179
179
178
179
184
184
191
190
1/ 1
1 *>1
1^
17Q
158
155
161
165
165
166
163
166
171
171
173
170
1 7>
17A
1 170
15A
1ST
(1957-59=
100)
178
1&3
1 Of)
Til
S^
P-LojJ
(NA 1 )
OT7
<.} f
r>/O
oy A
oq t
t-jb
o s "%
^4.JJ
O11
^41
0*20
<OO
r\ 1 -3
^4J>
oy n
oy q
T?/ J
— QCO
P*O f
/^NA;
wa\
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e"r estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
35
Section TWO
ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
charts and tables
DISTRIBUTION OF 'HIGHS' FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS
Average workweek~21 industries
New orders—36 industries
Capital appropriations—17 industries
Profits—700 companies
Stock prices—80 industries
Industrial materials prices—13 materials
State unemployment claims—-47 areas
Nonagricultural employment—30 industries
Production—24 industries
Wholesale prices—23 industries
Retail sales—24 types of stores
Net soles—800 companies
New orders—400 companies
Carfoading^—19 commodity groups
Plant and equipment expenditures—22 industries
DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES
37
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
APRIL 1966
DC€i
DISTRIBUTION OF "HIGHS" FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark datesNumber of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
Business cycle peak
Current expansion
Jan.
1966
Dec,
1965
Nov.
1948
Mar.
1966
Feb.
1966
July
1953
May
1960
July
1957
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more .•
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
10
5
15
"i
**4
6
7
9
1
,
3
10
1
1
5
10
1
1
2
2
11
2
6
24
42
24
42
23
48
16
38
1
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
i
i
24
16
2
1
2
3
24
0
24
0
5
1
2
"i
2
i
X
20
0
2
21
5
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
"i
i
2
9
"i
10
1
1
9
11
82
11
91
11
82
*"i
10
11
91
3
4
Apr.
1953
Aug.
1948
3
2
3
**3
"i
**2
3
4
3
11
27
11
36
11
27
6th month before business cycle peak
Feb.
I960
Apr.
1957
1
"i
**3
1
11
0
3d month before business cycle peak
Number of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
2
1
2
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
Jan.
1953
May
1948
Nov.
1959
Jan
1957
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
4
4
13
2
**2
. ..
"i
20
5
"i
2
2
5
1
2
1
"4
X
21
2
21
5
"i
2
1
2
3
i
l
i
i
9
l
13
2
**5
2
4
1
2
3
7
**3
24
0
24
0
1
20
15
2
21
33
Id
.••
1
2
"i
2
6
7
3
2
2
"i
2
1
24
0
24
4
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
2
1
"i
"i
2
• ••
1
"i
"i
2
6
5
4
3
3
2
11
55
11
36
11
18
1
1
"i
"i
4
2
1
3
6
"4
"i
4
3
11
55
11
36
11
"i
"i
5
3
5
11
45
11
45
"4
2
27
NOTE: All quarterly series and 2 monthly series (series 15, a leading indicator, and series 40, a roughly coincident indicator) are omitted from the distribution.
*4
series were not available.
2
1 series was not available and 2 series were omitted because their peaks vere reached during the Korean War and such peaks
were disregarded in this distribution,
38
bed
APRIL 1966
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
CHART
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
(Hov.) (Out)
(W
(fe)
Percent
39
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
APRIL 7966
bed
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
(ho (Oct.)
p
(J««
P
(Aug.)
T
Percent
100
SO
0
100
50
100
50
0
100
50
0
Itf4
IM5
lie °tM t@ Rest! Harts 1 ari 2," pap S
40
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
APRIL 7966
CHART
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
Percent
Data are centered within spans. Latest data are as follows:
Series number and
date of survey
D35, 036 (Jan. 1966)
D48 (Mar. 1966)
061 (Feb. 1966)
Actual
4th Q 1964 - 4th Q 1965
2nd Q 1964 - 2nd Q 1965
3rd Q 1965- 4th Q 1965
Anticipated
2nd Q 1965- 2nd Q 1966
2nd Q 1965 - 2nd Q 1966
1st Q 1966- 2nd Q~1966
41
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
APRIL 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES
NBER Leading Indicators
Dl. Average workweek, manufacturing
(21 industries)
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (36 industries)
OIL Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB (17 industries)1
Year and month
1-month span
9-month span
1-month span
9-month span
3-quarter span
1-quarter span
1962
July
August
September
October
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
October.
December ........
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
38.1
54.8
78.6
9.5
64.3
35.7
42.9
28.6
26.2
23.8
40.5
19.0
56.9
36.1
48.6
68.1
50.0
47.2
36.1
52.8
59.7
56.9
70.8
69.4
76.2
50.0
61.9
14.3
85.7
54-8
47.6
57.1
59.5
71.4
21.4
83.3
61.9
45.2
83.3
69.0
78.6
76.2
61.9
64.3
52.4
64.3
66.7
73.8
63.9
43.1
54.2
63.9
52.8
47.2
51.4
52.8
52.8
69.4
33.3
62.5
88.9
69.4
66.7
63.9
52.8
66.7
62.5
72.2
69.4
58.3
83.3
77.8
4.8
88.1
40.5
66.7
42.9
26.2
54.8
71.4
14.3
76.2
64.3
97.6"
85.7
50.0
52.4
73.8
33.3
85.7
73.8
88.1
78.6
78.6
95.2
59.5
55.6
44-4
58.3
61.1
U.4
50.0
63.9
40.3
54.2
58.3
55.6
68.1
76.4
83.3
80.6
75.0
72.2
58.3
63.9
83.3
72.2
63,9
61.1
68.1
76,2
81.0
59.5
59.5
33.3
54.8
71.4
69.0
78.6
r90.5
P92.9
48.6
38.9
63.9
50.0
44.4
58.3
59.7
41.7
61.1
61.1
55.6
76.4
77.8
75.0
77.8
68.1
66.7
68.1
91.7
83.3
r80.6
r77.8
p80.6
57.1
61.9
59.5
19.0
78.6
23.8
52.4
50.0
38.1
71.4
81.0
59.5
47.6
71.4
P38.1
r30.6
r47.2
p72.2
76
S3,
'59
*74
47
53
*59
*53
*53
*65
'65
*76
53
76
*56
*71
*53
*44
*32
*59
76
65
'•71
*76
*53
p76
P53
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Data prior to 1961 not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a
recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products." (See NICB publication Investment Statistics - Capital
Appropriations: First Quarter 1965.)
42
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
APRIL 7966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB
(around 700 corporations)
1-quarter span
D19. Index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (80 industries) *
1-month span
9-month span
D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month span
9-month span
D5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs,
week ended nearest the 22d (47 areas)
1-month span
9-month span
1962
July
48
August
September
October
November
December
*56
69.4
78.1
36.2
8.1
1.2
3.7
18.7
67.5
93.7
23.1
30.8
50.0
53.8
53.8
53.8
30.8
38.5
38.5
53.8
46.2
61.5
63.8
61.7
42.6
36.2
72.3
36.2
38.3
27.7
27.7
53.2
74.5
53.2
61.5
46.2
50.0
46.2
46.2
69.2
46.2
38.5
69.2
69.2
50.0
57.7
61.5
69.2
61.5
69.2
65.4
61.5
61.5
61.5
61.5
53.8
61.5
76.9
34.0
89.4
31.9
47.9
46.8
63.1
44.7
44.7
44.7
59.6
•44.7
89.4
27.7
57.4
77.7
48.9
48.9
63.8
24.5
57.4
66.0
61.7
59.6
51.1
34.0
38.3
78.7
57.4
44.7
51.1
98.7
84.4
.95.0
97.5
78.7
43.7
91.2
85.0
51.9
29-4
75.0
95.0
95.0
98.7
95.0
89.1
84.6
78.2
79.5
76.9
44.9
44.9
68.4
77*6
74.7
65.2
78.5
75.6
52.6
35.3
89.7
41.0
76.3
73.1
59.6
24.0
83.1
78,2
86.5
85.9
84.6
84.6
81.8
68.8
65.6
75.3
76.6
76.6
53.8
53.8
46.2
65.4
30.8
53.8
46.2
76.9
69.2
73.1
61.5
38.5
61.5
69.2
69.2
76.9
76.9
80.8
84.6
76.9
69.2
69.2
76.9
69,2
92.2
81.8
64.3
70.8
66.9
80.5
58.4
51.9
58.4
72.7
67.5
61.0
59.1
63.6
60.4
67.5
53.8
30.8
69.2
76.9
53.8
57.7
46.2
42.3
50.0
15.4
34.6
61.5
69.2
76.9
61.5
69.2
53.8
53.8
46.2
46.2
46.2
46.2
38.5
2
46.2
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July ............
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July . .
August ..........
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December. ........
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
50
*59
'56
*55
57
*60
'57
*56
55
*59
0.0
*55
*60
(NA)
24.7
79.9
81.2
66.9
70.1
57.1
74.0
48.7
14.3
69.2
71.2
84.4
61.5
r76.9
46,2
3
40.4
23.4
51.1
53.2
34.0
31.9
83.0
66.0
72.3
48.9
63.8
80.9
46.8
31.9
85.1
60.6
53.2
73.4
73.4
72.3
70.2
74.5
89.4
60.6
61.7
89.4
61.7
70.2
74.5
72.3
78.7
78.7
59.6
66.0
61.7
78,7
80.9
87.2
70.2
62.8
91.5
38.3
44.7
83.0
38.5
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19 which requires no
adjustment and D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and
"NA", not available.
x
The diffusion index is based on 82 components through February 1963;
on 80 components, March 1963 to August 1963;
components, September 1963 to March 1964; on 78 components, April 1964 to November 1964; and on 77 components thereafter.
^Average for April 14, 15, and 18.
on 79
43
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
APRIL 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
D41. Number of employees in
nonagricultural establishments
(30 industries)
Year and month
1-month span
1962
July * •. * . * . * * . v
August * * . . * . « * . .
October.,
November . » * . * , . ,
Dec ember
1963
January
:
March
1
April
May. . ,
June. . . * * . * . . « . .
July ........ A . ,
August *
:
September
!
October
November
:
December .*.,.,..
1964
January. .........
February. ..,.»,*.
March
April., . . , * > . . » « » * •
May.
> . ,.
June
July
f ,
August
,*..
September
October. *
November ........
December . *
1965
January. ...,*....
February. ,.,..,,.
March
April'. . . „ „
1
May. . .
June. ...........
July
August
September
October
November . . *
December
1966
January
February
*
March
April
May
June
1-month span
6-month span
!
!
51.7
45.0
41.7
35.0
43.3
50.0
52.1
58.3
83.3
71.7
76.7
75.0
63.3
78.3
53.3
56.7
66.7
5,3.3
80.0 i
60.0
65.0
65.0
68.3
68.3
71.7
73.3
60.0
66.7
60.0
73.3
73.3
79-2
66.7
83.3
54.2
83.3
75.0
72.9
68.8
58.3
64.6
50.0
77.1
53.3
83,3
66.7
63.3
65.0
73.3
66.7
51.7
73.3
46.7
88.3
75.0
75.0
75.0
80.0
83.3
73.3
75.0
' 75-0
91.7
86.7
80.0
90.0
90.0
62.5
75.0
75.0
87.5
66.7
62.5
83.3
64.6
45.8
68.8
79.2
81.2
75.0
75,0
81.7
60,0
60.0
80.0
85.0
36.7
63.3
85.0
91.7
81.7
83.3
76.7
80.0
78.3
76.7
76.7
85.0
91.7
91.7
86.7
95.0
66.7
66.7
79.2
58.3
70.8
81.2
81.2
66.7
52.1
75.0
83.3
91.7
61.7
51.7
51.7
50.0
48.3
43.3
:
65.0
46.7
r78.3
r78.3
pBl.7
P93.3
054. Sales of retail stores
(24 types of stores)1
D47- Index of industrial production
(24 industries)
6-month span
29>2
68.8
35.4
;
=
i
:1
:
I
;
:
1
:
:
1-month span
9-month span
Revised3
Revised3
1-month span
6-month span
66.7
77.1
60.4
47.9
72.9
62.5
83.3
75.0
64.6
39.6
87.5
66.7
95.8
95.8
87.5
87.5
91.7
83.3
41.3
28.3
43.5
32.6
56.5
30.4
32.6
41.3
37.0
30.4
26.1
26.1
83.3
91.7
95,8
91.7
91*7
S3. 3
91.7
79.2
77.1
83.3
85.4
50.0
54.2
52.1
41.7
52.1
75.0
66.7
64.6
25.0
58.3
54.2
77.1
70,8
79.2
85.4
77.1
60.4
52.1
62.5
87.5
70.8
91.7
83.3
77.1
41.3
41.3
41.3
47.8
58.7
73.9
50.0
58.7
52.2
69.6
63.0
71.7
32.6
47.8
58,7
60.9
63.0
69.6
71.7
78.3
71.7
69.6
67.4
82.6
91.7
95.8
87.5
91.7
87.5
89.6
70.8
70.8
87.5
79.2
91.7
91.7
43.8
70.8
52.1
52.1
66.7
66.7
39.1
71.7
34.8
78.3
56.5
60.9
79.2
100.0
85.4
83.3
83.3
83.3
73.9
78.3
73.9
76.1
54.3
78.3
63.0
69.6
52.2
71.7
34.8
34.8
69.6
65.2
60.9
56.5
56.5
60.9
69.6
69.6
69.6
56.5
56.5
56.5
60.9
58.7
60.9
69.6
78.3
82.6
83.3
85.4
83.3
83.3
83.3
66.7
87.5
87.5
87.5
83.3
87.5
63.0
69.6
30.4
54.3
87.0
43.5
80.4
47.8
73.9
73.9
78.3
37.0
80.4
87.0
87.0
73,9
87.0
87.0
95.7
91.3
95.7
95.7
P91.3
63.0
60.9
67.4
67.4
60.9
60.9
60.9
54.3
52.2
52.2
69.6
73.9
76.1
80.4
82.6
76.1
67.4
69.6
60.9
60.9
71.7
73.9
87.0
PB9.1
77.1
P95.8
i
:
r77.1
71.7
76.1
P83.3
p63.0
r?5.0
D58. Index of wholesale prices
(23 manufacturing industries)
63.0
80,4
p67.4
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-monrn indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placea on
the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month, of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Tables identifies the components for the indexes
Shnwn
The "r" inrtiratp*; rm/kpri* "n" nrpliminflrv anH "MA" nnt awsiloMo
1
The diffusion index is based on 24 components through June 1964, and on 23 components thereafter.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
44
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
APRIL 1966
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
D35. Net sales, manufactures
(800 companies)
Year and month
4-quarter span
Actual
D61. New plant and equipment
expenditures (16 industries)
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
Anticipated
Actual
D36. New orders, durable manuD48. Freight cartoadings (19 manufactured
!
commodity groups)
factures (400 companies)
Anticipated
Actual
1-quarter span
Anticipated
Change in
total (000)
Actual
Anticipated
1962
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
Iy
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
Anril
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
*
July
August
September *
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
Mav
, *
June
72
"74
71
70
42.1
68.4
-67
'74
82
'?6
*76
63.' 2
63.*'2
+29
*76
'so
77
*76
73^7
78.9
+39
"74
80
'76
'?6
57,9
68^4
+44
*84
*82
V
80
78,*9
78.*9
+21
*85
*82
*&4
68.4
73,7
-39
*87
*84
'cU
84,2
68^4
*82
V
'si
"si ;
73^7
94." 7
+41
*83
*87
'84 ;
*&4
52.*6
89 is
r+30
'84
'88
'84
'85
52.'6
89^5
+49
90
'88
"96
*84
(NA)
84.2
+23
88
*88
*88
*84
84." 2
+22
CNA)
*90
"87
73.'1?
r+28
90
89^5
'82
*84
.*83
:
86
*91
(HA)
:
\
:
+11
65.6
65.6
46.*9
68.'s
40.6
50.0
65 .'6
75.0
75*.6
71.9
71 '.9
75.0
71.9
50.0
62.' 5
50 !o
84." 4
75.0
96^9
6s!a
56.2
65.6
75.0
6s!&
87,5,
65^6
81.2
84.*4
'
62.5
71.9
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans; 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter indexes are
placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used for series D61; other indexes, based on 4-quarter spans (same quarter a year ago),
require no seasonal adjustment. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
45
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
APRIL 1966
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS
Basic Data
1966
1965
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Nov.
Dec.
Janr
Feb.
MarP
Average weekly hours
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING^
(21 industry components)
All manufacturing industries . . „
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
4
Electrical machinery . . . fc
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper an dallied products ...... . .
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
41.2
41.3
41.0
41.1
41.0
41.4
41.4
41.5
41.6
41.6
a. 2
40.3
41.9
41.2
40.9
41.4
41.7
41.0
41.6
41.9
42.1
42.1
43.0
41.1
43.0
41.6
39.8
41.8
39.9
41.4
41.6
42.1
42.0
43.0
41.0
42.9
41.4
39.6
42.2
41.3
41.7
42.2
41.1
42.4
43.7
41.3
43.4
41.7
40.2
42.4
41.8
42.1
42.3
42.3
43.1
41.1
43.3
41.3
39.8
41.5
41.0
41.8
41.9
42.3
42.6
43.2
41.2
43.5
41.4
39.8
42.4
41.5
41.7
42.7
41.9
42.6
r42.4
r41.0
r41.6
r42.5
42.0
r42.6
43.9
41.5
43.5
42.2
40.0
44.0
41.7
r43.4
r42.6
40.3
42.3
41.1
42.2
42.9
42.0
42.5
44.1
41.6
43.5
42.6
40.3
41.2
38.9
41.9
36.6
43.1
38.6
41.9
41.9
42.2
38.2
41.1
38.3
41.9
36.6
43.1
38.6
41.9
42.1
42.2
38.2
41.0
37.3
41.5
36.4
43.1
38.5
42.0
42.2
41.7
38.4
41.0
37.2
41.4
36.5
43.0
41.1
38.0
41.9
36.5
43.6
38.6
42.0
42.4
42.5
38.6
41.2
37.7
42.0
36.5
43.6
41.2
39.1
42.4
36.3
43.2
HI. 6
r41.1
r42.5
r36.6
r43.5
38.7
42.0
42.0
42.3
38.4
38.5
42.0
42.0
42.4
38.2
r38.7
42.2
r42.7
r42.3
38.9
41.2
39.1
42.4
36.5
43.4
38.7
42.3
42.2
42.2
38.7
23,578 r23,609
3,603 r3,972
1,776 pi, 385
24,201
4,000
(HA)
a. 3
43.7
41.7
42.3
40.5
42.7
40.5
39.5
41.0
36.7
41.5
36.0
42.7
38.5
42.2
42.4
41.1
38.3
38.5
a. 7
41.9
41.8
37.8
a. 8
43.0
41.2
42.3
43.9
41.5
42.9
41.7
40.2
Millions of dollars
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(36 industry components)
All durable goods industries
21,130 21,714
Primary metals
3,702
3,593
Blast furnaces, steel mills
2,018
2,291
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
Fabricated metal products
2,110
2,065
Metal cans, barrels, and drums . . ,
Hardware, structural metal and wire products . .
...
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
3,050
3,100
Steam engines and turbines*
166
|
185
Internal combustion engines *
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling*. .
598
575
Metalworking machinery *
267
213
Miscellaneous equipment *
Machine shops
Special industry machinery *
General industrial machinery*
245
234
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery *
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
preliminary, r=revised.
*Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency.
46
22,043
3,456
1,876
20,992
3,286
1,632
21,310
3,454
1,816
22,389
3,392
1,635
23,403
3,684
1,854
2,098
2,027
2,042
2,213
2,335
2,177
p2,240
(NA)
3,107
156
3,108
142
3,189
226
3,396
232
3,532
316
3,427
224
p3,302
(NA)
p225
(NA)
581
222
601
208
560
204
660
277
570
264
638
231
p604
p286
(NA)
(NA)
285
258
230
258
278
260
p244
(NA)
^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
NA=Not available,
bed
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
APRIL 1966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change
9- fnontfi spans
1-rnonth span s
1966
1965
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
-§
>*
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING
(21 industry components)
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
,
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
"^
X=
i
S 1
"3
—»
24
—
52
o
50
4-
4-
JT
=
•5
0
o
o>
a
"o
1O
71
4-
Q
4.
4-
4.
4*
Q
£.
g
CO
71
38
4-
? "6
O
I 1 1
i
81 60
60
33
55
4*
—
Q
4.
c'
n
—
3
CX5
Q
o
«>
ex
4-
4.
4.
4.
4-
4-
44_
+
4-
0
—
4-
4-
+
4.
4_
—
0
O
—
_l_
-j_
4~
4*
4-
4-
0
—
o
I
CO
-1
1 tr
CO
<"
69
4,
79
90
4.
4.
4.
4"
4.
4~
4°
j_
o
4-
o
4-
4"
4-
4.
44-
4.
f
4.
4.
4,
4.
4.
4~
71
4.
o
—
4-
O
4-
0
4-
+
4-
4-
4-
4-
44-
4-
4.
4-
4-
4-
4.
, 4-
4.
4.
o
o
Q
Q
4.
4.
Q
_
4.
O
—
44-
—
O
4-
—
4.
4.
4-
4-
4-
4.
4.
4-
4.
4.
4-
Q
4.
4.
4~
4-
4,
4.
4.
Q
4.
4.
4.
4-
4-
4.
Q
4-
4-
4.
44,
4.
4.
Q
4-
4.
o
44.
Q
o
o
4-
93
4.
4-
o
4-
4-
4.
4.
4.
4.
4.
_
4"
•"
Q
4.
Q
4.
Q
4.
4~
O
4"
0
0
—
44.
4.
a_
j_
4.
4-
4.
_1_
Q
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
+
°
Q
4.
4.
4.
_
o
4-
4.
58
60
61
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
-
4-
-
4-
4-
4-
O
o
Q
4.
Q
4.
4.
4-
o
+
4,
4.
4-
4,
J_
4*
4-
4,
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
(36 industry components)
Percent rising
All durable goods industries
Primary metals:
Blast furnaces steel mills
•
...
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
4-
4-
4.
4-
4-
4-
4-
/i 7
72
75
78
68
67
4-
4-
4.
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
4.
4-
4-
4_
44-
4-
4.
44_
Fabricated metal products:
4.
44.
4.
Machinery, except electrical:
Steam engines and turbines*
Internal combustion engines *
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction mining and material handling *
4*
4-
4-
4-
4.
44.
4-
4.
4.
4.
4.
4.
4-
,
44-
4-
4-
-
4-
-
_
4-
—
+
_L
44-
+
4-
4-
4-
+
4-
4-
44-
4-
4-
„
_l_
4~
4~
4-
4-
4.
44-
4.
4.
4*
4.
4.
4.
4.
4~
_|.
4.
_j_
4~
4.
4-
44-
4-
4-
4.
.....
4.
44-
4-
—
4-
_
4-
4.
-
4-
_
4.
4-
+
.
4.
4.
4-
o
4.
4.
44.
4_
4-
+
_
4-
4.
4-
4-
44,
4~
4,
4-
4.
4_
4,
4.
4*
4.
4-
4-
4.
4-
+
4-
4.
_
4.
4.
4.
4.
4-
4-
+
4-
4-
4.
4.
4-
4.
4.
^.
4*
4.
4~
4.
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4.
4,
4.
4-
4.
4-
_
+ - rising; o = unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential,
comprise series 24.
6*
4.
•
4.
+
Miscellaneous equipment *
Machine shops
Special industry machinery *
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery *
4.
4.
_L
44-
4,
4_
4-
'Denotes machinery and equipment industries that
47
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
APRIL 1966
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1965
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
June
May
Dec.
Nov.
Jan.
Feb.
Apr 1
Mar.
Mil lions of dollars
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' 2NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES - Continued
Electrical machinery
,
2,597
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment* . . . .
\
586
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment . * ...
...
523
Electronic components . . * * * . » • . . * *
Other electrical machinery^ . . * . * . * . .......
,5,690
3,211 . r3,462 P3,316
(NA)
r727
p778
(NA)
579
r828
p720
(NA)
6,165
r6,526
r6,530
p6,584
117.1
120.5
r!22.9
123.5
122.0
.655
.082
31.621
1.760
2,711
2,929
2,801
2,874
3,201
604
602
603
668
r655
736
529
701
659
691
r699
6,301
6,453
5,878
5,870
r5,972
Instruments, total . ,
Lumber, totat . . . . 4
..,,
Furniture, total . . ,
............
Stone, clay, and glass, total
Other durable goods, total
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES3
(13 industrial materials components)
Index: 1957-59 = 100
Industrial materials price index
110.7
113.2
116.7
U6.9
115.3
115.5
Dollars
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.)
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin (Ib.)
Zinc(lb.)
*, . .
Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average . * v
Print cloth (yd,), average . . . * . . *
Wool tops (Ib ). »
*
*
Hides (Ib )
.
Rosin (100 Ib.)
.
Rubber (Ib )
Tallow (Ib)
.
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES^
(23 retail store components)
All retail sales .,...*
.352
.073
36.060
1.564
.382
.413
.074
.075
37,328 36.929
1.661 1.819
.414
.073
38.600
1.910
.426
.076
36.055
1.894
.506
.070
33.188
1.748
.475
.073
34.804
1.730
.522
.073
35.262
1.791
.586
.076
37.719
1.847
.632
.078
36.019
1.808
.152
.146
.207
1.643
.149
.156
.299
.210
1.702
.148
.163
.298
.208
1.725
.149
.159
.297
.207
1.724
.150
.161
.294
.207
1.726
.150
.170'
.292
.205
1.762
.162
11.733
.265
.079
.167
11.512
.234
.072
.180
U.558
.247
.074
.206
11.663
.252
.080
.232
11.535
.259
.077
.236
11.420
.£57
.073
.150
.130
.306
.194
1.612
.150
.133
.305
.200
1.598
.152
.143
.304
.204
1.651
.151
.147
.303
.206
1.642
.138
11.779
.264
.083
.149
11.803
.262
.080
.156
11.652
.268
.081
.X58
11.629
.272
.079
* ...
:
,303
1
.151
.169
.291
.208
1.794
.207
11.341
.238
.070
Millions of dollars
23,262
22,856
22,849
23,317 r23,322
24,647
24,816 r25,023 r25,472 p25,643
r4,928
r4,914
r4,986
r5,021 r5,053
r5,235
r4,432
5,278
P5,394
(NA)
rl,875
r2,019
209
r433
1,879 Pl,955
2,119 p2,139
243
P223
P458
451
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Other food stores .,.„..
Eating and drinking places *..*.,...,.....,. rl,737 rl,724 rl,746 rl,769 rl,769 rl,810
Department stores
r 1,871 rl,869 rl,850 r 1,909 rl,885 r2,Q87
Mail order houses (department store merchandise).
202
211
205
2X1
235
215
Variety stores
420 ;
431
450 '
MS
442
469
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
271
264
265
262
280
271
269
289
P292
(NA)
NOTE: Qata are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
* Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
NA = Not available, p= preliminary, r« revised.
1
Average for April 14, 15, and 18,
2
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency,
3
Series components are seasonally ad/justed "by the Bureau of the Census, (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments"
page 2.) Industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted.
48
bed
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
APRIL 1966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1-month spans
9-month spans
1966 1 !
1965
f
1965
1966
Diffusion Index title and components
H
2? £ " " 0
o
*»
«5<? o
z c?
• • eao A - .+L • >
§ - =
-n -^
>\ A
•£
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES- Continued
Electrical machinery:
Electrical transmission, distf. equipment * .... +
4
Electrical industrial apparatus* .,.«.»,•,..,
Household appliances ».,*...*.....;
RadioandTV
»
;*
,. ,. .. .
+
Communication equipment ..,*..,
Electronic components
-!•
Other electrical machinery*. . « « . » » . . *
4
Transportation equipment:
Motor vehicle parts
, <*
—
Motor vehicle assembly operations *»..„..*..;
Complete aircraft .............
^ . . .1 4Aircraft parts . . ,
...*.*,
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*.
-4Other transportation equipment
Instruments, total
|
+
>
=
4
_
-
-
-
4-
5 £
-
&
+
4
*
*
- 4 - 4 > * * .
4-
4
-
-
+
-
+
-
^
—
—
t-
4-
—
—
-
-
4
4
-
_
4-
-j-
4-
_
+
4
-
_
4-
4-
:
Percent rising
»
Industrial materials price index
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.) ,
Steel scrap (ton) *
*,.....,.*..,.*..
9,
*
*
_ ^ .
4-
4-
4-
4-'
4>-
+
4
4
4"
41'
4-
' •
+
4.
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O
4,
+
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—
^.
4
^_
4
4.
4*
4.,
•$•/
^
^
4-
HP-
-4
4"
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4r
4-
4r
~^
+
4
f
4
^
+
4^
4;
i
—
4
4 4 4
4,
_|_
4,
—
4-
4
—
" 4,
4 ^ "
4,41
+
-
• + • - .
-
0
-
44^
44-
r4
<t4
4as.
Ui
iifi•
—.
iji
4>
4 -
i • 4
JU--
"-
«
4 -
J
i
*
-*•
^ 4 -
;;
i
;
+
-
58
46
42
50
15
62
77
—
—
—
4
-
-
35
62
4
~
4
4
-
^
4
f
-J-
-
i
4^
-
4>
v
4^
4w
4
^
+
i.
„.
;
4
;
4-
4-
—
4
—>
41
4^
;
+
4
4
—
4
4-
—•
4^
41
4-
441
!
—
—
4
—
1
'—
!
i
* ....
•
—
™
4
4
4
-
4
4
-
4
-
4
—
-
~
4
4
O
+
4
—
4
*
+
'
'
C
4
-
J
4
4'
4
4-
-^-
77
62
69
54
54
46
46
46
46
4>
4
4
4:
41
4
4-
4
4^
4-
™
4•
Jt-
4.
4,
-fc,
—.]
wi•
ju
ri,
4>
4,
4>,
4-
4i
-_i
riii.
i
i
Wij
«.
*>
b
*
.
^
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*
4-
4.-
-it>
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.tfo
-
i
o
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4
38 .46
41'
f»
;
:J
4
4.
4
.
*
;
-(.
4
—
-. '
-"
4.
4
—
4
i i
4
— ' — "
4,
4"
+
4
^
4,
4/
4
4-'
4-
---. i i
4*
4-
4:
4.
;
4>
4
4
4
"
4
i
4^
4
4
;;
4
4-
4->
4
-
;
4
4
4-
+
4-
;;
—
4-
4-
4 - 4
4r
4
i
4-
4-
4 - 4
/
0
—
-
4
4
—•
Mail order houses (department store merchandise) . .
Other general merchandise stores
4
38
4
4
—
—
4
—
—
—
4
4
4
Zinc (Ib )
*....,»...*.,».
Burlap (yd.) . * , *
».,,« + ,.*
Cotton (Ib ) 15-market average
Print cloth (yd ) average * • » * * . . . . .
4~
4~
44~
4—
4~
—
44^
Wool tops (Ib )»
*
4
4
4
—
—
44
-f*
4^
4~"
Hides (Ib)
. .
Rosin (100 Ib)
..«
..'.„,..
Rubber (Ib )
*
.". * . * . . f * .
Tallow (Ib )
*..444
i
'
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES
(23 retail store components)
Percent rising „
. .
44 80 48 74, 74 78 37 72 76 63-
4 * 4
O
4
4
*
4
•
46
4
4
-^
.{_
4
4
' 4 1 i
4^
' •
4
—
-
^
•
f
s
4—
^
at
<
i
-3
—i
M
4
-
_
4
+
4
4>
—
-
4
4-
4^
_
4
4-
4*
4/
—
4
4
f
4f
4
4
+
'•
4
-h
_
'-^
;
4
4
4-.
-H'
•
-
_
4
4-
'
-
_
+ - 4
4-
_ 4 ^ ^ , « . - 4
4
+
4
a-
41
4-
-
+
—
4
-
—
-
4-
4
-
4
4
-
+
4
4
_
—s
4
_
4
-
4
—
-
4
4
—
-
+
4
-
^
'
>
+
4-
4
**
co
S
J§
^
:
': j
+
_.
Furniture, total . * .
,
Stone, clay, and glass, total
.
Other durable goods, total
.
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES2
(13 industrial materials components)
j
4-;
4-"
1ik6
C t 4 ^ ' o j ^ r a ' ' - ^
< J2 ' <u , o
o
<u ! S ' ' *
^ o p o ^ Q - S H I'
i.,o
X
. Q ' t L i i L
>\
' o
! o
, <u - (|
. to
ex
co
(<u
5 i O Z Q - ^ U . E < t S '
-JUS
^
:
4
_
4
4-
4-^
'
£ S
: !
4 ; . -
_
£
^
t
gc
4
*
- f - i » ^
4
—
4-
+
4
"03
^'cL
u_ s <
.i. , .a
il
£g |
4
-
4
o§
-7
o
'
87
87
4-
4
74
87
4
87
4
96
4
91 96
4
4,^
1
9&
4
4,
1
J
9i
^i
4i'
4
4
4
4
4
4- -
4'
4
4
4
4
4
4
4'
4
4'
4"
™l-
4-
4
4
4
4
4,
4
4-
4-'
-'431
4"
4-
4-
4-
4-.
4-
4-
*•
'4>
$
*
4
O.<
4 ^ ^
-f - rising; ov= unchanged;^ = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.
comprise series 24.
O;
'_i^
+
.
',
4-
•-)-
J_,
4
--t
-4-j
.4;>
4
Ifo
4>
,'ll
'4>
4^
*Denbtes machinery and equipment industries that
Average for April 14, 15, and 18.
Directions of change are computed "before figures are rounded.
49
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
APRIL 1966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1965
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Nov.
Decf
Jan.
FebP
Mar.p
Millions of dollars
D54, SALES OF RETAIL STORES1- Continued
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture, home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV radio stores .......
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers —
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
.
Jewelry stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores
510
496
485
502
501
566
560
570
599
(NA)
215
681
335
755
225
207
687
339
730
216
203
675
r337
724
218
,220
682
332
776
228
212
699
334
783
228
227
756
366
819
255
214
735
378
825
245
240
759
378
896
253
240
727
406
865
260
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
4,626
249
1,784
744
521
4,363
245
1,771
753
509
4,218
254
1,792
762
516
4,295
260
1,811
755
530
4,359
247
1,824
760
525
4,509
267
1,860
818
543
4,714
239
1,838
828
533
4,610
274
1,907
806
560
4,758
274
1,921
814
569
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
}
;;;
1965
May
June
1966
1965
Aug.
July
Sept.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan!
Feb.f
Mar?
Thousands of employees
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1
(30 industry components)
All nonagricultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
*
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Mining
,
Contract construction
-.
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade . . . ,
60,032
60,290
60,756
104
530
354
495
1,079
977
1,208
1,152
1,280
248
342
105
527
357
500
1,068
983
1,218
1,163
1,267
251
342
61,472
108
538
362
503
1,031
1,006
1,242
1,199
1,282
254
353
61,884
107
547
368
512
1,035
1,012
1,244
1,225
1,290
256
359
62,148
100
527
356
490
1,068
973
1,192
1,142
1,237
245
332
60,501
102
528
357
495
1,077
983
1,208
1,149
1,238
250
334
60,621
99
529
356
491
1,050
968
1,181
1,127
1,227
239
332
113
556
370
520
1,045
1,024
1,252
1,244
1,297
261
345
62,488
118
554
374
515
1,054
1,035
1,264
1,270
1,332
265
.350
62,809
120
553
372
515
1,056
1,039
1,266
1,281
1,357
266
354
1,141
74
817
1,198
493
615
538
108
357
312
1,134
75
818
1,221
494
616
542
110
359
309
1,141
75
822
1,196
500
622
548
111
361
308
1,135
68
823
1,195
497
622
548
110
363
310
1,129
68
825
1,205
499
621
546
111
362
310
1,174
69
834
1,216
503
630
547
110
372
314
1,156
72
837
1,225
507
629
548
110
378
314
1,155
71
840
1,203
510
637
551
110
380
317
1,159
70
841
1,228
513
640
555
110
379
318
1,160
72
843
1,232
513
639
558
108
383
320
627
3,188
4,020
3,252
9,280
626
3,195
4,034
3,272
2,308
633
3,154
4,031
3,281
9,338
627
3,189
4,049
3,273
9,327
617
3,186
4,067
3,281
9,360
627
3,267
4,079
3,300
9,454
630
3,386
4,079
3,309
9,513
632
3,383.
4,090
3,323
9,586
630
3,370
4,104
3,339
9,608
631
3,445
4,102
3,350
9,660
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
x
50
NA=Not available, preliminary, r=revised.
bed APRIL 1966
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
9- month spans
1-month spans
1965
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
c
•^ -^ ^ J*
s
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES - Continued
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture, home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
;
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
Jewelry stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores
|i
«
"o
O
Jj
1
4-
44-
+
-
4-
4-
4
-
4
-
4-
0
4-
0
4-
0
f
+
0
44-
4-
44
0
-
+
4-
-
4-
4
-
O
4-
f
4-
4-
O
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
40
4-
.
4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
4-
4
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
0
4-
4-
0
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
0
-
4
-
4-
4-
0
-
4
-
4-
4-
^
80
85
57
4-
4-
4-
4-
1-
4-
4-
4-
4-
-
4-
'
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS
(30 industry components)
Percent rising
All nonagricultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
•
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
*.
.
O
£
=i
—»
4-
•
63
85
92
82
78
78
4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
4-
4-
4-
82
+
4-
4-
+
1
(Q
•£
0
4
-
4-
0
40
-
4-
44-
44-
4 - 4 - 4 4-
44-
4-
4-
0
4-
4-
O
4-
4-
0
-
0
+
4-
4-
44-
4-
4 - 4 - 4 -
4
-
4
-
+
4-
O
4-
4-
0
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
4
-
4
-
-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
44-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
4-
44-
4-
4+
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
•h
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
"o
CD
1 1-
80
78
77
77
4-
4-
4-
0
4-
4-
o
4-
4-
4-
+
92
92
87
95
93
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
44-
44-
4-
44-
44-
44-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
44-
44-
44-
4-
1 i1I
4-
4-
4-
4-
£
CO
85
O
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
O
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
O
O
O
O
4-
4-
-
4-
4-
4-
4-
O
4-
O
4-
-
-
4-
4-
4-
4-
-
4-
4O
4
-
4
-
4-
4-
4-
-
4
-
4
-
4-
4-
1966
f
4-
-
44-
4-
4-
4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
4-
4-
4-
44-
444-
+
4-
4-
4-
1-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
1
4-
4-
4-
4-
Z3
4-
4-
Rubber and plastic products
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retai 1 trade
i
£
4-
Mining
JD
f
4-
4-
ci
o
O
4-
••
s
o
+
4-
44-
1965
-G
o
4-
1
4-
1966
g«*>
1 5" s
6-month spans
1965
S?
^
CO
4-
1-month spans
'-i ^
t
ro
tr
o
4-
44-
O
4-
4-
44-
4-
I0
44-
4-
"o
1cp
11 i
4-
4-
+
4-
tao
.0
1966
4-
4-
44-
4-
4-
4-
4-
O
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4*
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
O
4-
O
0
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
O
4-
f
4-
O
44-
O
44-
44-
4-
4-
44-
4-
4O
+
4-
0
4-
-h
4-
4-
44-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
44-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.
51
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
APRIL 1966
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1965
I
1966
196.5
OHMon infe title M components
to
June I July
Aug.
:
i
3,049
8,929
2,376
7,678
2,355
7,659
2,345
7,610
3,053
8,946
2,379
7,706
047. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1 I
(24 industry components)
Leather and products ... * *
Paper and printing ,.........,.,...*....
Paper and products ...........
Printing and publishing
.•
142.7 ! H4.2
1D5& INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING 2
|23 manufacturing industries)
JUl manufacturing Indus tries* . . . . * . . . .
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products ...........
Furniture and other household durables ......
Nonmetatlic mineral products . . • . .
ilron and steel . * . . . * . . .« . . . .
2,395
7,933
3,080
r9,142
2,425
r7,965
r3,082
r9,200
r2,451
r8,011
3,096
9,231
2,458
8,060
3,082
: 9,128
r!50.0
r!51.4
152.9
143 !<6
; 146.4 , 148. 0
146 ."5
147,5
131.2
147.0
119 !i
153.6
126.5
r!56.3
rl31.'6
r!57.1
rl32.'3
rl60.8
136
161
' 159,* 4 ! I6l.*7
i 158.4
149.8
149.5
1 149.6
152.1
; 159.2
162 ".4
160.1
151.5
152.6
162.4
162.1
149.4
155.7
169.* 2
166 [9
171 ! 9 rl74.0
168.4 I 172.8 r!77.6 r!79.9
157.3 ; rl60.7 i rl63.1
163.2
159,0 : 162,2 : P166.0 ; rlTl.l
131 .' 6 1 132! 6
112,8 ' i 115.4
133^5
117.2
133.' 8
116.2
135.' 5
119.1
137!i • r!39i4 : rl40.'9
125-4 , r!25.6 P125.8
174
180
166
173
136
142
(NA)
15<M i i
iii.k
H3.5
156." 3
146.6
156.'s
147.1
162.' 6
153.0
164^3
155.5
rl65!'i
rl51.2
167'.1
155.3
168
157
145.3
110.9
! 113.&
145*4 , 143.8
. 105.1 : 107.7
134.' 8
141.9
107.0
135." 7
143.8
108.2
139 .'4 : rl40.3
147.2 : U8.5
110.1
113.9
rl40.4
pill. 8
140.1
P140.7
(NA)
(NA)
140 .*9
129.3
139 ! 4 ! U2*.i
130.0 i 131.3
141 .'l
133.0
143 .'9
129.3
14?! 4
133.2
H1?!1?
134.2
rl48.*7
r!35.7
172.8
124.5
170.2
174.' 2
125.8
168.1
176.' 6
125.1
171.2
178.' 5
126.1
181.6
180.' 6
127.8
181.3
123.1
119.9
122 '.4
120.7
123.2
120.6
125.6
118.9
125.' 3
117.1
r!26.6
P119.6
141
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
143
(NA)
139
176
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
126
(NA)
(NA)
117.1
113.0
115.2
114.2
106.7
110.6
115.7
113.8
118.5
rll4.5
rll3.4
114.4
111'. 2
rl!4.8
121.6
123.9
123.7
126.' 4
125. B . 127.3
130.2
129.1
122 '.4
127.4
114.2
133.2
12o! 6
138.2
r!33.'4
r!35.5
pl30.*3
P135.8
102,6
103 a
103.0
103.3
103.2
103.7
104.1
104.2
rl04.9
105.2
99.6
98.0
101.8
101.3
99.3
99.5
98.0
97.8
102.1
101.9
101.3 , 101.6
101.0
97.7
101.7
101.3
101.6
97.7
101.7
101.4
102.5
98.0
101.5
101.3
103.1
98.3
101.8
101.7
103.9
98.3
102.1
101.8
r!04.3
98.5
105.2
98.3
102.2
102.4
1X3.0
, 111.9
i us!?
1
,
'•
143,5 ; \
Wai 2
169 .*9
121.8
169.1
1223 ;
121.8
117.1
,
112.5
:
1
PH3.1
;
rl80.7
r!32.0
P183.5
p!48.8
138.4
174.3
P183.4
P131.0
(NA)
125.9
P126.4
(NA)
118
117
135
(NA)
(NA)
;
:
noa.i
r!02.2
NA =Not available, p =preliminary, r= revised.
are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. (See
3,074
9,081
2,400
7,869
148.7
MOTE: Oata are utot shown when held confidential by the source agency,
1
Data
:2
3,061 ,
8,967
2,379
7,740
146.4
121.9
116.5
Stone and earth 'minerals • * « • »
Feb.
143.5
169! 3
122.9
, . . . . i 168,2
Minerals;
Coal » * . * * . . . « . » » , . , , . . . . ,
Crude oil and natural gas « » » •
Metal stone and earth minerals
Mar?
Jan.
144.5
1
1
1
* *• .
1 Dec.
Index: 1957-59 = 100
All industrial production
! 141.6
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals *
Primary metal products
140.2
Fabricated metal products
, . . . 146,0
Machinery and related products
Machinery except electrical * * ............
157.' 6
Electrical machinery. «
\ , 156.8
Transportation equipment • • • »
,.,,.... i 147.3
Instruments and related products
147.0
Clay glass and lumber. . * • • *
Clay glass and stone products
130 '.3
Lumber and products ,....,
; 117.1
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
156.5
Miscellaneous * * #«*
4 . ' 143.6
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and feather . *
Textile mill products
' 131 '.6
Rubber and plastics products *
Foods beverages and tobacco « »
Foods and beverages
»
Nov.
Thousands of employees
041. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
!
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLiSHMENTSHCori, j
Finance insurance real estate . . * . ^ . * .* 1 3,032 I 3,041
Service and miscellaneous , * . . * * . . * . . * . . . * . . i M43 8, 857
State and local government . * . . . . . * . . . *• -. . * -* .
Sept.
"Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.)
bed
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
APRIL 1966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1-month spans
6-month spans
1965
1966
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
i
"71
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS-Con.
Finance insurance, real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government ......... .....
State and local government
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(24 industry components)
Percent rising1
Al I industrial production
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay glass and lumber
Clay, glass, and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
paper and printing.
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals petroleum and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products* *
Rubber and plastics products
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products
Minerals:
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas. • *
Metal stone and earth minerals
Metal mining
«
Stone and earth minerals
2» ^*
.^
o S£S cp«
O
g \j_S E
.»
—^t
81
+
,
DO
=
_
J_
>
S " t j O
t_j
£
c
JD
o>
£
+
+
4 - 4 . 4 - 4 . 4 - 4 . 4 . 4 . 4 . +
+
+ + + + + + + + +
+
+ + + + + + + + +
81 67 52 75 83 92 75 77 83
+
+
— +
+ + + + +
83 83 83 67 88 88 88 83 88 96
+
+ + + + + + + + +
4 . 4 - 4 . 4 - 4 . 4 . 4 . 4 - 4 . 4 .
+
+
_•
§ " 5
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
--
o
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ +
- - - - - - 4 .
4 - 4 . 4 - 4 , 4 - 4 . 4 . 4 . 4 . 4 ,
+
+
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4.
+
—
+
+
+
+
+
—
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ +
+ NA'
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ +NA
4 . 4 - 4 . 4 . 4 . 4 . 4 . 4 . + NA
- NA NA +
+ - + + +
- N A N A
- N A N A
- + + + + + N A N A
+
+
+
+
+
—
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ NA
+ +
4-
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
-
- N A
NA NA
•
....
+
+
+
+
61
61
54.
0
+
-
-
52
0
—
+
+
+
52
70
74
+
+
—
—
--— —
o
+
—
+
+
+
+
.
.
+NA
+ +
+
+
+ +
......
-
+
+
.
+ + NA 'NA
* . <
+ +
+ NA
+
+
+
4-
..
..
- NA
+ NA
+
+
+
+
,.
+
+
+
+
+ NA
-
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING
(23 manufacturing industries)
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
+ Arising; o = unchanged; - = falling,
-5
—»
63
80
+
0
+
+
+
o
67
+
83
+
+
-
-
NA
NA
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
— — + +
+
+
+
+
+ NA
+ NA
72 74
87 89
4-
76 67 70 61 6l
+
+
O
—
—
—
~
+
+
+
+
+
+
O
—
O
+
+
+
+
NA Not available.
^he percent rising is based on 24 industry components.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
Directions ,of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for
the current month are rounded.
53
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
APRIL 7966
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1965
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb/
Mar.P
Index: 1957-59 = 100
D58, INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURINQi-Continued
Durable goods-Continued
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Fabricated nonstructural metal products
Nondurable goods;
Processed foods
Tobacco products and bottled beverages
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and leather products
p=preliminary.
114.9
101. 4
109.5
104.7
105.6
96.6
100.5
110.8
116,2
101.2
109.0
104.8
105.6
97.0
100.7
113.0
115.8
101.4
109.3
104.7
105.2
97.3
100.5
113.3
116.6
101.7
110.2
105.7
105.2
96.7
100.7
112.2
117.2
101.7
110.0
105.9
104.8
96.6
100.7
110.8
117.8
101.9
109.9
106.3
105.3
96.4
100.5
112.9
117.1
102.0
109.6
r!06.4
105.6
96.5
100.5
111.1
118.4
102.2
109.9
106.6
105.5
97.1
100.5
112.5
119.9
102.7
110.1
106.8
105.6
97. S
100.4
115.1
121.1
103.3
110.6
107.3
105.5
98.2
100.3
113.1
10^.1
108.4
100.1
103.8
95.8
103,4
106.2
107.7
100.7
103.9
95.7
103.6
106.3
107.2
100.9
104.7
95.6
103.6
107.0
107.1
100.8
105.1
94.8
103.9
106.1
107.4
100.9
105.5
94.4
103.9
107.1
107.6
100.9
105.4
92.6
104.1
109.8
107.9
100.9
105.5
91.9
104.3
109.5
108.3
100.7
105.6
91.4
104.7
111.9
108.3
101.1
105.6
91.1
104.9
112.3
110,0
101.5
105. S
90.7
105.0
100.1
97.5
95.5
93.2
107.3
100.1
97.4
95.4
93.5
107.6
100.2
97.5
95.5
93.5
108.4
100.3
97.3
97.4
93.4
112.0
100.3
97.4
96.7
93.5
111.2
100.8
97.5
98.0
93.1
113.3
100.9
97.7
97.7
93.4
114.6
101.1
97.5
97.0
93.4
116.6
101.1
97.5
97.9
94.0
11S.8
101.9
97.4
97.5
94.0
119.2
r=revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.)
54
Basic data for components of diffusion index D19, Index of stock
prices, 500 common stocks, and of diffusion index D5, Initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, are not avail=
able from the Census Bureau.
bed
TABIE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
APRIL 1966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
6-month spans
1 -month spans
1965
1966
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
- l = f < § " § I o l £ l
TO
3
"5
-
+
+
O
-
+
-
=>
§•
o
*O
2= a
O
<U
—•
W
ix.
+
+
+
+
+
O
+
+
-
+
-
0 -
+
0
-
s^.-^.*:
«;o
OS
t=
=
- =
- ? ^
0 4 . ^
a>
^
Q ^ U
Q
=
<
1
a>
-
O
«
S "
e ^
Jc o
S <
^ J > o
" G - 2 a S
0 ^ a ^
»!_
> * ( =
a - c o - s
C S - ^ - ^
-Qa i i=
,
to
L i - S
'
t i o A
^
z s S "
< « c x 3
-
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING-Continued
Durable goods-Continued
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Fabricated nonstructural metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods
Tobacco products and bottled beverages
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel . ..
O
00
-
+
+
-0
0
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
-
-
+
O
+
+
+
O
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
O
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
0
+
...
Pptmlpiim nrnHurtQ rpfinpH
+
O
+
O
+
O
+
+
+
+
O
+
+
O
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
o
-+
o
+
+
o
+
0
+
-
0
Percent rising3.. .
Index of 500 stock prices
Coal bituminous
Food composi te
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers) . „
<O
3
3
=3
S - ^ - ^ < C
0 25
- -
°
+
+
+
O
-
O
-
-
-
+
+ + + + +
+
+
-
+
+
O
+
+
+
f
+
---
1966
5T
0
+
+
+
+
+
O
+
O
+
+
9-month spans
1965
i - B ^ g - t j ' g o S - S 1' j i
~?
-^
<
*?
o
=
9
~?
"-£- ?
>*
=.
•
QQ
A
.^
>
o
-o
D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES,
500 COMMON STOCKS1
(23 industry components)2
-
-
-
1-month spans
1965
-
°
<U
CO ^
< / 3 0 S Q - ^ L i -
80 81 67 70 57 74 49 14
+ + + + +
--
1966
|A ^=l . >f t& §£ l.A s»L «
2
i
•!.
^ A
t s i s l ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
58
+
52
+
58
+
73
+
68
61
59
64
60
68
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
4
.....
-
-
+
0
0
-
-
-
-
-
O
-
-
+
-
-
-
-
+
+
-
+
+
-
O
+
t
+ + t
Tpytilp nrnriurts
paper
Publ ishing
-.
Chemicals. ........ .,
Drugs
Oil composite
_
Steel
Metal fabricating
Machinery composite
Office and business eouioment
Electric household appliances
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
--
-
+ t
+ + + +
Electronics ..
.
Automobiles
Radio and television brosdcasters
- - 0
Electric companies
Natural gas distributors
Retai 1 stores composite
Life insurance
+
+
-
-
-
-
-
;:::::::::
«
+ = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling.
•'•Data are not seasonally adjusted.
2
The 23 components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4.
3
Based on 77 components.
representing an additional 23 of
55
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
APRIL 1966
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
9-month spans
1-month spans
1965
1966
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS1
(26 area components)
Percent rising
47 labor market areas.
Northeast region:
Boston (7)
Buffalo (19)
Newark (11)
New York (1)
Paterson(20)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (25)
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (21)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26)
Detroit (5)
Indianapolis (23)
Kansas City (18)
Milwaukee (15)
Minneapolis (13)
St. Louis (8)
South region:
Atlanta (17)
Baltimore (12)
Dallas (16)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
Portland (24)
San Francisco (6)
Seattle (22)
51 34
38 79
57
51 38 45 83
79 60 66 62 79 81 87 70 63 92
- Arising; o = unchanged; + = falling. The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises.
Data used are for the week ending nearest the 22d of the month.
1
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census "before the direction of change is determined. (Sec
"Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.) The percent rising is "baaed on 47 labor market areas. Directions of
change are shown separately for only the 26 largest areas. The number in parentheses indicates the size rank for each'labor
market area.
56
Section THREE
charts and tables
REFERENCE
CYCLES
Current expansion compared with expansions in
earlier business cycles
PERCENT CHANGES FOR CURRENT AND EARLIER
EXPANSIONS
Percent of reference peak levels
Percent change from reference trough levels
57
CHART
APRIL
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
1966
bed
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES
Percent
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough:
Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough:
Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough:
•+
Reference trough dotes
Apr. 1958)
—. May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
ii i i i M i i i i 111
Percent
.Reference trough dates
23. Industrial
130
materials prices
120
110
17. Ratio price
110
to unit labor
cost, mfg.
100*
105
90
100*
70
95
24. New orders, mach.
and equip. Indus.
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks
A/
-12 -6
0 -1-6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36+42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
140
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100*
100"
90
90
80
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
-12-6
0 +6 +12+18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
Reference peak level * Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
QPoint at which a new reference trough was reached.
58
bed
CHART
APRIL 7966
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough:
Oct. 1949)
Reference trough dates
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
.
May 1960 to present (Reference trough:
0
Feb. 1961)
1
43. Unemployment rate, total
-.
(percent unemployed, inverted)
Reference trough dates
2
3
4
41. Employees in nonagri.
]a
establishments
5
6
7
8
Percent
55.
Wholesale prices exc.
farm prod, and foods
115
110
100*
95
-J 85
-12-6
0
+6 +12 418 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
-12-6
0 +6 +12+18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scaies are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. 1Lines represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels.
*Reference peak level,
if Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
59
CHART
APRIL
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
1966
bed
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
Percent
160
PERIOD COVERED
4th Q. 1948 to 3rd Q. 1954 (Reference trough:
4th Q. 1949)
2nd Q. 1953 to 2nd Q. 1958 (Reference trough: 3rd Q. 1954)
3rd Q. 1957 to 1st Q. 1961 (Reference trough: 2nd Q. 1958)
.
2nd Q. 1960 to present (Reference trough: 1st Q. 1961)
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment
Percent
67. Bank rates on
short-term business loans
111 n 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 11
-12 -6
0
-1-6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
-12 -6
0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest quarter in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this quarter and comparable quarters of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
* Latest data anticipated.
*Reference peak level.
* Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
Digitized for60
FRASER
bed
APRIL 1966
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
CHART
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
PERIOD COVERED
Reference trough dates
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
t
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
95. Surplus or deficit, Fed. income and product
July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
i
•
"I
acct. (ann. rate, bil. dol.)1
» May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
I
im|m.,|m.,|.m,|,,m|Mm|
+20
| m . . | m , , | , M M | , m percent
H5
n 115
+10
62. Labor cost
per unit of output, mfg.
98. Change in money supply and time deposits
(ann. rate, percent. 6-term moving avg.)1
64. Book value of mfrs:
inventories
+6
+2
- 95
-2
J
-12-6
0 +6 +12+18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
90
-12-6
0
+6 +12+18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1
cycle in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. ] Lines represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels.
•'Reference peak level. -^Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
61
TABLE
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
APRIL 1966
bed
COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
Selected series
Month
after
reference
trough1
Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion beginning inJuly
1924
July
1921
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
61 st
60th
60th
61 st
104.3
127.0
215.2
158.8
101.3
111.8
103.7
134.9
98.8
84.2
71.7
125.5
101.0
96.5
138.4
112.3
184.0
338.9
336.9
64.2
39.3
32.7
46.4
72.5
42.0
50.8
21.5
98.0
45.0
47.0
103.8
(NA)
36.8
11.1
178.6
9.8
94.5
218.0
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
83.9
7. Private nonfarm housing starts.
9. Construction contracts, 2commercial and
industrial floor space
13 New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted)
6lst
120.9
141.3
116.1
144.0
82.2
56.5
60th
60th
61st
171.1
116.3
91.7
117.7
131.1
42.3
130.4
186.5
57.2
137.6
149.0
70.0
73.2
46.3
(NA)
25.9
57.0
(NA)
11.5
91.3
60.4
126.1
108.6
113.1
48.2
82. 0
26.4
16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing . .
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
23 Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
29 New building permits private housing
57th
6lst
6lst
61 st
61 st
6lst
165.1
105.7
161.0
118.6
155.9
123.9
120.0
100.6
144.6
91.7
134.8
136.4
141.3
99.4
234.9
109.1
156.4
108.9
94.1
94.5
218.7
82.0
130.1
157.9
223.3
(NA)
76.0
112.4
(NA)
(NA)
29.4
(NA)
32.9
70.5
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
52.4
39.8
(NA)
(NA)
123.1
(NA)
347.2
80.9
(NA)
(NA)
100,0
(NA)
148.6
57.7
(NA)
(NA)
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments.3..
43, Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted) . .
47 Industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
61st
61 st
61 st
60th
115.5
+1.4.
139.1
HI. 5
106.6
-1.7
121.7
130.7
105.7
-2.9
110.8
131.7
108.9
-1.5
127.8
141.5
132.7
(NA)
196.7
205.8
87.6
-19.0
72.9
77,3
64.2
(NA)
60.4
57.7
102.8
(NA)
124.8
127.4
87.3
(NA)
118.3
(NA)
50 GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
51 Bank debits all SMSA's except N Y.
52 Personal income
54 Sales of retail stores
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and
foods
60th
6lst
61 st
61 st
129. A
174.2
139.7
139.8
119.7
145.7
130.0
120.1
114.1
146.4
132.5
158.1
126.5
150.0
137.7
129.1
(NA)
175.8
200.5
137.4
92.4
57.0
77.5
80.8
79.6
53.5
59.0
59.5
129.0
159.6
128.2
111.8
(NA)
112.1
(NA)
115.6
6lst
,102.8
100.9
111.5
109.0
112.3
"89.7
68.9
85.4
64.4
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q):
a Actual
.*.. ......
b Antic ipated *
57th
63d
152.5
162.3
97.9
106.0
115.7
119.6
120.6
115.2
(NA)
(NA)
78.7
48.4
20.9
20.3
128.2
123.2
68.1
69.0
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing . . .
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories
66, Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q) . . .
6lst
60th
60 th
60th
98.1
127.1
165.4
103.7
100.5
111.5
150.0
103.7
112.3
116.9
168.8
141.3
114.6
145.1
268.0
134.5
139.6
154.9
58.2
(NA)
95.0
105.2
122.0
52.4
68.2
(NA)
(NA)
96.4
84.5
(NA)
(NA)
111.0
72.2
(NA)
(NA)
82.0
57th
59th
-7.4
+8.12
-5.1
+5.86
+7.0
-0.72
-8.4
+5.58
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
95. Surplus or deficit, Fed. income and prod. acct.(Q)3
98. Change in money supply and time deposits 3>*
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD).of "1" or "2" (series 19, 23, 41, 47,52, 54, 55, 62, 64, and 66), the value for the month indicated in the
1st column (month after reference trough) is divided by the value for the reference peak month. Similarly, the reference peak quarter is used as the percentage base for
quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67). For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 1,2,3,6,7,9,13,.14,17,24,29, and 51), the average of the 3 months centered
on the reference peak month is used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C. For all earlier expansions except the one beginning in June 1938, the peak had been
passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the 1st column. See appendix A for the reference peak dates NA=not available.
x
Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. Measures for shorter time
spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CYCLE
DEVELOPMENTS.
^Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term mov3
ing average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Measures are differences from the reference peak levels.
^Anticipated
expenditures (2d quarter 1966J are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only. Actual expenditures are
used for all other entries.
^Changes are computed in a 6-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
62
bed "wi 1966
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
Month
after
reference
trough *
Selected series
Percent change from reference trough of expansion beginning inOct.
1949
June
1938
+1.3
+16.0
+6.7
+40.2
+1.9
-5.5
+43.9
+59.8
+28.0
+106.0
(NA)
(NA)
+45.6
-0.8
+2.8
+83.7
+25.1
-6.2
+49.8
+37.3
-43.8
+34.6
+ 57.9
-40.0
57th
6lst
61st
6lst
6lst
6lst
+88.1
+6.7
+43.0
+2^. 4
+64.4
+27.8
+54.5
+6.1
+65.7
+5.5
+52.7
+34.1
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments . .
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted)3.
47 Industrial production
..
49 GNP in current dollars (Q)
6lst
6lst
61 st
60th
+17.7
+3.0
+47.6
+41.8
50 GNP in 1958 dol lars (Q)
51 Bank debits all SMSA's except N Y
52 Personal income
54. Sale's of retail stores
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and
foods
*
60th
61st
6lst
6lst
July
1924
July
1921
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
-7 4
-4.1
-11.6
+141.4
-26.0
-42.6
-28.3
-78.4
+6.6
+109.4
+51.5
-7.3
+ 5.3
+220.5
(NA)
+153.1
-12.4
+274.4
-90.5
-4.6
+122.6
+59.5
+42.6
-40.3
+48.3
-46.2
(NA)
+116.3
-86.7
-12.0
-34.3
+81.6
+46.6
+25.4
+76.7
+13.4
+56.3
+47.4
+1.7
+85.6
+9.1
+68.0
-9.0
+15.5
-2.9
+110.4
+9.2
+48.4
-1.3
(NA)
(NA)
+21.0
+66.1
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+58.7
+69.8
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-60.0
-59.2
NA)
(NA)
+128.6
(NA)
+233.3
-3.6
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+100.9
+38.0
NA)
(NA)
+10.9
+1.5
+41,7
+33.0
+9.4
+0.6
+21.8
+32.7
+14.8
+2.6
+39.6
+46.4
+48.1
(NA)
+187.9
+133.7
+28.1
+6.4
+51.0
+53.5
-33.2
(NA)
-35.8
-42.5
+18.3
(NA)
+51.9
+30.4
+26.7
(NA)
+73.2
+40.3
+31.3
+70.1
+38.3
+43.3
+24.0
+50.3
+29.7
+22.0
+16.7
+44.1
+32.5
+28.9
+28.6
+56.2
+44.4
+29.1
(NA)
+110.5
+125.2
+68.5
+28.3
+49.5
+57.4
+53.5 '
-22.2
-50.8
-41.5
-40.5
+29.4
+64.7
+28.1
+11.8
+40.3
+44.6
+46.7
+23.3
61st
+2.9'
+1.4
+12.4
+14.8
+18.9
+33.9
-25.9
-6.4
+1.7
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q):
a. Actual
b. Anticipated4
57th
63d
+63.5
+74.0
+21.9
+31.9
+21.1
+25.2
+50.7
+44.0
(NA)
(NA)
+359.0
+182.1
-76.2
-76.8
+83.8
+76.5
+98.3
+101.0
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing. . .
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). . .
61 st
60th
60th
60th
-2.9
+28.5
+60.0
+11.7
-5.6
+15.7
+48.8
+20.1
+9.2
+25.1
+63.2
+48.0
+18.6
+55.4
+114.1
+34.0
+34.5
+63.6
-37.6
(NA)
+29.5
+77.6
+155.3
-32.6
-30.8
(NA)
(NA)
+0.2
-17.8
(NA)
(NA)
+26.6
-19.8
(NA)
(NA)
-24.0
57th
59th
+3.1
+2.64
+9.9
-0.20
+ 5.8
-3.72
-2.1
+4.76
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
60 th
61st
+5.9
+17.5
+148.5
+69.7
+4.5
+23.0
+79.6
+52.8
61st
+20.9
60th
60th
61 st
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1; Average workweek of production workers,
6ist
60th
3 Layoff rate manufacturing (inverted)
6 New orders durable goods industries
7 Private nonfarm housing starts
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial floor space ^
13 New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted)
—
16 Corporate profits after taxes (0)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing. .
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
-28.0
(NA)
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
3
95. Surplus or deficit, Fed. income and prod. acct.(Q)
98. Change in money supply and time deposits3'5
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical" dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 19, 23, 41, 47, 52, 54, 55, 62, 64, and 66), the value Tor the month indicated in the
1st column (month after reference trough) is divided by the value for the reference trough month. Similarly, the reference trough quarter is used as the percentage base for
quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67). For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 17,24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months centered
on the reference trough month is used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C. For all earlier expansions except the one beginning in June 1938, the peak had been
passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the 1st column. See appendix A for the reference peak dates. NA=not available.
on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. Measures for shorter time
spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CYCLE
DEVELOPMENTS.
Except for 1961, changes are computed in4a 3-term mov3
ing average of the seasonally adjusted series .
Measures are differences from the reference trough levels .
Anticipated
expenditures (2d quarter 1966) 5are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only. Actual expenditures are
used for all other entries .
Changes are computed in a 6-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series .
63
Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Trough
Cycle
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
December 1854
December 1858.
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870
March 3 879
June 1857
October i860
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873
March 1882
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897.
December 1900
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893
December 1895
June 1899
September 1902
August 1904
June 1908. .......
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
(X)
18
£
32
18
65
30
22
46
18
34
36
(X)
48
30
78
36
99
(X)
40
54
50
52
101
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
May 1907
January 1910. . .
January 1913
.August 1918
January 1920
May 1923
23
13
24
23
7
18
33
19
12
44
10
22
44
46
43
35
51
28
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945
November 1948
July 1953
14
13
43
13
8
11
27
21
50
80
37
45
36
40
64
63
88
48
41
34
93
93
45
56
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
July 1957
May 1960
13
9
9
35
25
(X)
58
44
34
48
34
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1919-1961
4 cycles, 1945-1961
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
.
(x)
*49
2
54
3
46
4
46
5
48
6
42
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean
War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
5
1
3
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
25 cycles, 1857-1960.
4 cycles, 1945-1960.
6
4
2
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
65
Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in —
Selected series
Apr.
1958
Feb.
. 1961
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers , mfg...
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial. . . , ,
13. New business incorporations
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, infg
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks. . »
23 . Industrial materials prices
*.
24. New orders, machinery and equipment indus...
?94 Nf»w hi}i id^ng permits, private housing. ......
Dec. '60 Apr. '58 Apr. '54 Apr. '49 Jan. '38 June '32 Apr. '28 July '24 Feb. '21
May
Jan.
Mar.
Oct.
Dec.
Nov.
Dec.
'61
'61
'61
'60
'60
'60
'60
June
Nov.
Apr.
Dec.
Apr.
Feb.
Feb.
(NSC) Aug.
'58
(NSC) Feb.
'57
'58 Mar. '54 July
'57 Sep. '53 June
»58 Feb. '54 June
»58 Mar. '54 Apr.
'58 Sep. '53 Jan.
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
Sep. '38 Oct. '32 Sep. '27 July '24 Mar. '21
Sep. '39 Dec. '34 Dec. '26 June '24 Jan. '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC) Oct. '23 Aug. '21
Apr. »38 June '32
June '38 July '32 Aug. '28 June '24 July »21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments. Feb. '61 May
May '61 July
43. Unemployment rate, total, (inverted)
47 . Infill stri al pr^du^ti^n
,,,*,.,*,...,... Feb. '61 Apr.
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
4thQ '60 IstQ
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
IstQ '61 IstQ
(NSC) Feb.
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., construction.. Dec. '60 May
54 . Saipp of ret^i* 1 ^t^reiS ,„,,..,,.,.,,».....,., Apr. '61 Mar.
'58 Aug.
'58 Sep.
'58 Apr.
'58 2ndQ
'58 2ndQ
'58 Apr,
'58 Sep.
'58 Jan.
'54 Oct. '49 June
'54 Oct. '49 June
'54 Oct. '49 May
'54 4thQ '49 2ndQ
'54 2ndQ '49 IstQ
»54 July '49 May
'54 Oct. '49 June
(NSC) May
'54
'38 Mar.
'38 May
'38 July
'38 IstQ
'38 3rdQ
'38 Mar.
'38 Mar.
'38 Mar.
'33 Jan. '28 July '24 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
'32 Nov. '27 July '24 Apr. '21
(NSC) 4thQ '21
(NSC)
'33
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
'32
'33 4thQ '26 2ndQ '24 2ndQ '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
(NSC) Mar. '22
(NSC)
'33
'38
'40
'39
'40
'33 4thQ '27 3rdQ '24 4thQ '21
(NSC) Apr. '22
(NSC)
'33
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
'31 4thQ '27 4thQ '24 3rdQ '22
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61.
62.
64.
67.
Business expenditures, new plant and equip.. 2ndQ
Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing. Sep.
June
Book value of manufacturers1 inventories
Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). 4thQ
'61
'61
'61
'61
3rdQ
Apr.
Aug.
2ndQ
'58
'59
'58
'58
IstQ
Apr.
Sep.
IstQ
'55
'55
'54
'55
4thQ
Aug.
Jan.
IstQ
'49
'50
'50
'50
3rdQ
June
June
2ndQ
IstQ
July
May
3rdQ
Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in —
Selected series
May
1960
July
1957
July
1953
Nov.
1948
May
1937
Aug.
1929
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan.
1920
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg...
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial
13 . New business incorporations
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks.
23. Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment indus...
29. New building permits, private housing
May
159 Nov. '55 Mar. '53
June
Apr.
May
July
Nov.
July
Nov.
'60
'59
'59
'59
'59
'59
'58
Mar.
Feb.
Oct.
July
Dec.
Nov.
Feb.
'56
'56
'55
'56
'55
'56
'55
(NSC) Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22
(NSC) Mar.
(NSC) July
Feb. '51 May
Jan. '53 June
Feb. '51 Jan.
Feb. '51 Apr.
July '50 Oct.
(NA)
'46 July '37 Jan. '29 Sep. '25 Aug. '22 Dec. '19
'46 Dec. »36 Jan. '29 Oct. '25 Apr. '23 Dec. '19
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'4B
(NSC) Mar. '23 July '19
'48 Feb. '37 Sep. '29
'48 Mar. '37 Mar. '29 Nov. '25 Mar. '23 Apr. »20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'48
(NA)
(NA)
'47
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41.
43.
47.
49.
50.
52.
53.
54.
Employees in nonagricultural establishments.
Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
Industrial production
GNP in current dollars (Q)
GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
Personal income
Labor income in mining, mfg., construction..
Sales of retail stores
Apr. '60
Feb. '60
Jan. '60
2ndQ '60
IstQ '60
(NSC)
May '60
Apr, '60
Mar. '57 June
Mar. '57 July
Feb. '57 July
3rdQ '57 2ndQ
3rdQ. '57 2ndQ
Aug. '57 Oct.
Aug. '57 July
Aug. '57 Mar.
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
Sep. '48 July
Jan. '48 July
July '48 May
4thQ '48 3rdQ
4thQ '48 3rdQ
Oct. '4S June
Aug. '48 May
(NSC) Sep.
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
Aug. '29 Jan. '26 June '23 Jan. '20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July '29 Mar. '27 May '23 Feb. '20
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
3rdQ '29
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
3rdQ »29
(NA)
Aug. '29 2ndQ '26 IstQ '24
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Sep. '29
(NSC) July '20
(NSC)
Sep. '29
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61.
62.
64.
67.
Business expenditures, new plant and equip.. 2ndQ
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing. Mar/
Book value of manufacturers' inventories
Sep.
Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). 4thQ
'60
'61
'60
'59
3rdQ
Apr.
Sep.
4thQ
'57 3rdQ
'58 Mar.
t5y Sep.
'57 4thQ
'53 4thQ
'54 May
'53 Jan.
'53 2ndQ
'48 3rdQ
'49 Dec.
'49 Oct.
'49 3rdQ
'37 2ndQ '29 4thQ '26 2ndQ '23 2ndQ '20
(NSC)
(NSC) Oct. '23 Nov. '20
'37
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'37 Jan. '30
'32 3rdQ '29 4thQ '26 3rdQ '23 4thQ '20
NOTE: Specific trough and peak dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a trough or peak as distinguished
from reference dates which are those dates designated as the trough: or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows,
for selected indicators, the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.
66
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Part 1,—Average Percentage Changes
1/5
Monthly series
Period
covered
CI
I
C
1/5
MCD
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
MCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1.
2.
30.
3.
4.
5.
Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg...... Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.48
.42
Accession rate, manufacturing
Jan. '53-Sep/' 65 4.75
4.47
Nonagri. placements, all industries. . Jan.
. ' 53-Sep. '65 1.83
1.34
Layoff rate, manufacturing.
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 9.20
8.26
Temporary layoff, all industries
Jan. ' 53-Sep, '6517.13 16.59
Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
Jan. '53-Sep. '§5 4.95
4.38
6. New orders, durable goods industries.. Jan.. '53-Sep. '65^ 3.76
3.33
24. New orders, mach. ' and equip, indus
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 4.18
3.81
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 9.30
9.17
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 4.69
4.39
7. Private nonf arm housing starts.
May '59-Sep. '65 7.16
7.08
29, New "building permits, private housing. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 3.65 3.28
38. Index of net business formation
Jan. i 53-Sep. '65
.79
.60
13. New business incorporations
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 2.49
2.18
14. Liabilities of business failures. . .. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 18.74 18.24
15. Large business failures
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 12.31 12.12
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg.. Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
26. Buying policy production materials j
commitments 60 days or longer
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
23. Industrial materials prices
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.19
1.40
1.09
3.42
3.64
2.23
3.20
1.23
2.41
4.55
3
4
2
3
5
.74
.84
.63
.77
.96
2.08
2.14
2.11
1.95
1.57
1.50
1.54
1.52
1.46
1.42
11.69
9.50
7.24
8.94
6.61
3.75
3.72
3.97
4.69
2.69
2.17
1.51
2.02
2.20
2
3
.95
.66
1.69
1.81
1,42
1.58
12.67
8.44
3.97
4.41
1.52
2.51
3
.88
1.83
1.60
10.86
3.41
.97 9.41
3.08
1.43
.89 7.91
1.29
2.54
.53 1.15
2.18
1.00
1.70 10.72
1.54
7.84
6
4
6
3
2
3
6
6
t1)
.84
C1)
.80
.66
.78
C1)
H
1.60
1.88
1.38
1.85
2.71
1.92
1.49
1.55
1.48
1.71
1.38
1.52
1.63
1.63
1.39
1.46
12.67
9.50
15.20
13.82
6.61
7.24
8.94
11.69
3.00
3.39
£.63
2.86
4.08
3.19
2.23
2.58
.59
2.49
.49
1.68
.25
1.64
1.92
1.02
3
2
.81
.57
2.20
2.37
1.79
1.58
6.61
9.50
4.55
3.97
6.46
5.24
2.84
1.85
3
.76
2.37
1.62
7.60
3.57
5.27
4.77
1.98
2.41
3
.77
1.88
1.63
8.94
3.49
7.47
1.31
5.79
1.04
4.00
.73
1.45
1.41
2
2
.95
.99
3.17
2.49
1.85
2.11
8.94
11.69
3.77
3.87
.30
.36
3.92
5.39
.14
.30
3.04
4.55
.26
.20
2.19
2.66
.55
1.50
1.39
1.71
1
2
2
2
.55
.80
.72
.91
4.90
2.01
2.54
3.41
1.46
1.60
1.60
1.56
16.89
25.83
8.16
7.82
4.90
3.42
3.95
4.00
4.19
3.00
2.19
1.87
3.29
2.30
.67
.81
1
1
.67
.81
4.90
3.10
1.75
1.39
7,60
8.94
4.90
3.10
1.02
1.57
.51
.84
.89
.54
1.50
.26
.52
.76
.76
.64
.44
.63
.46
.71
2.34
.58
.82
1.67
1
3
1
1
2
.71
.58
.58
.82
.98
3.62
1.65
4.61
2.67
2.17
1.67
1.50
1.54
1.55
1.71
11.69
30.40
21.71
13.82
15.20
3.62
4.29
4.61
2.67
3.51
.16
.09
.13
.71
1
.71
3.90
1.54
8.00
3.90
.56
.53
.40
.19
.32
.49
1.28
.38
2
1
2.41
.72
.38 10.13
1.57
1.63
6.61
21.71
3.51
10.13
.56
.84
.33
.11
.51
.82
.65
.14
1
1
.65
.14
8.94
11.69
1.49
1.63
13.82
21.71
8.94
11.69
4.25
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 4.42
Federal cash payments to public
3.80
Jan 'SS-Dec '64 3.87
Federal cash receipts from public
Jan. '56^Sep. '65 27.42 27.34
Defense Dept oblig procurement
Defense Department obligations, total.Jul.' 53-Sep. '65 13.86 13.59
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 24.51 24.35
Military contract awards in U.S
.82 5.16
.60 6.37
2.16 12.68
1.26 10.77
8.28
2.94
6
6
6
6
6
C1)
C1)
I1)
C1)
C1)
1.57
1.59
1.43
1.40
1.63
1.45
1.43
1.43
1.42
1.57
8.00
14.87
8.92
6.64
8.44
2.58
3.35
2.02
2.07
2.83
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 22.53 22.53
5.00
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 6.70
1.31
Jan. '53-Sep.! 65 1.65
1.31
Jan. '60-Sep. '65 1.44
2.08
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 2.46
Jul. '61-Sep '65
.07
.11
1.92 11.72
4.46
1.12
.93 1.41
.53 2.48
1.90
1.10
.65
.11
6
2
2
4
3
1
C1) 1.57
.73 ' 2.53
2.76
.98
.93
2.27
2.58
.87
.65 10.00
1.48
1.77
2.00
1.62
1.88
1.92
9.50
6.61
8.00
5.67
8.00
5.56
2.53
3.68
3.68
3,61
3.66
10.00
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41.
42.
43.
40.
45.
Employees in nonagri. establishments.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Total nonagricultural employment
Jan. '53-Dec. '65
Unemployment rate, total
Jan. '53-Dec. '65
Unemployment rate, married males
Nov. '54-Dec, '65
Average weekly insured unemployment
rate , State
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
46. Help-wanted advertising
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
47.
51.
52
53.
54
55.
Industrial production
Jan. '53-Sep. ' 65
Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Personal income . .
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Labor income in mining, mfg., constr..Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Sales of retail stores
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Wholesale prices except farm products
and food s
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.... Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
64 Book value of mfrs ' inventories
Jan ! 53-Sep '65
65. Book value of manufacturers1 inventories of finished goods
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
66. Consumer installment debt
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
82.
83
90
91.
92
99 New orders defense products
114. Treasury bill rate
115 . Treasury bond yields
116 Corporate bond yields
117 Municipal bond yields
118. Mortgage yields
See footnotes at end of table.
67
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 1.-Average Percentage Changes-Continued
I/c
Period
covered
Monthly series
CI
I
C
i/c
MOD
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
MCD
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SKRIES^-Con.
86. Exports, excluding military aid
Jan.'53-Oct. '64
87. General imports
Jan. '53-Oct. !64|
81. Consumer prices
Jan.'53-Sep.'65
94 . Construction contracts, value
Jan.1 53-Sep. '65
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods indus.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65
3.81
3.04
.15
6.64
1.45
3.56
2.87
.09
6.38
.54
.94
.80
.13
1.55
1.28
3.77
3.59
.69
4.12
.42
4
4
1
5
1
.91
.86
.69
.87
.42
1.78
1.83
5.63
1.55
5.63
1.66
1.62
1.54
1.52
1.57
14.10
10.85
16.89
8.00
10.86
4.06
3.54
5.63
3.15
5.63
.93
1.08
.86
1.51
1.45
1.50
1.73
.82
1.02
.77
1.33
1.38
1.40
1.23
.52
.42
.49
.66
.62
.72
1.22
1.58
2.41
1.55
2.02
2.24
1.96
1.01
2
3
2
3
3
3
2
.79
.86
.87
.64
.84
.67
.47
3.38
2.58
3.62
2.71
2.67
2.49
3.38
1.52
1.48
1.73
1.62
1.45
1.69
1.37
21.71
10.13
25.33
19.00
16,89
16.89
13.82
4.87
5.17
5.81
5.00
6.00
4.84
5.21
CI
I
C
i/c
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
123. Canada
122. United Kingdom
121. OECD European countries
125 . West Germany
126. France
127. Italy
128. Japan
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
...... Jan.'53-Sep. '65
Jan.'53-Sep.'65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan.'53-Sep. '65
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
i/c
Quarterly series
Period
covered
QCD
for
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
QCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11.
16.
18.
22.
New capital appropriations, mfg
Corporate profits after taxes. ........
Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 10,36
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 5.60
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 6.03
4.70
3.09
3.59
7.69
4.29
3.80
.61
.72
.95
1
1
1
.61
.72
.95
2.94
3.33
2.38
1.32
1.32
1.35
3.33
5.00
4.17
2.94
3.33
2.38
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
4.34
2.87
3.11
.92
1
.92
2.38
1.25
5.00
2.38
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
1.23
1.47
1.30
.38
.35
.31
1.09
1.39
1.26
.35
.25
.25
1
1
1
.35 3.33
.25 5.56
.25 10.00
1.28
1.22
1.16
IQf53-IIIQ'65
3.21
.77
2.99
.26
1
.26
5.56
1.47
5.56
5.56
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
.84
.42
.67
.62
1
.62
2.94
1.22
5.56
2.94
Ity 53-HIQ,' 65
1.99
.96
1.80
.54
1
.54
2.38
1.47
3.33
2.38
IQt53-IIIQ'65 11.47
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 4.30
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 6.63
7.37
2.47
1.20
7.95
3.27
6.38
.93
.75
.19
1
1
1
.93
.75
.19
2.38
2.08
4.17
1.16
1.25
1.32
3.85
4.17
8.33
2.38
2.08
4.17
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
50. GNP in 1958 dollars
49 . GNP in current dollars
57. Final sales
5,56 3.33
5.56
7.14
10.00 10.00
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corporate GNP
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
110. Total private borrowing
Ill . Corporate gross savings
97. Backlog of capital appro., mfg
Hlot computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
The following are brief definitions of the measures shown
in this table. More complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin,
issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957.
"CI", is the average month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter)
percentage change, ^without regard to sign, in the seasonally
adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular component,
obtained by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series. "C" is the same for the cyclical
68
component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally
adjusted series.
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate
of the appropriate time span over which to observe eyclical
movements in a monthly series. It is small for smooth series
and large for irregular series. In deriving MCD, percentage
changes are computed separately for the irregular component
and the cyclical component over 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Fob.Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to
5-month spans. Averages, without regard to sign, ar© then
computed for the changes over each span. MCD is the shortest
span in months for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than
the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it indicates the
point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series
become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements.
Since changes are not computed for spans greater than 5 months,
all series with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of the appropriate time
span over which to observe cyclical movements in quarterly
series.
It is the shortest span (in quarters) for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change
(without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so.
"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values)
or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted series. For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month _spans and
for spans of the period of MOD. When MOD is "6", no I/C_ratio
is shown for the MCD period. For quarterly series, I/C is
shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2 months, a change
in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The
ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series CI, irregular
component I, cyclical component C, and the MOD curve. The MCD
curve is a moving average (with the number of terms equal to
MCD) of the seasonally adjusted series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected ADR
of a random series gives an indication of whether the changes
approximate those of a random series. Over 1-month intervals
in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is 1.5. The
actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving average
(MCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR is 2.0.
For example, the ADR of CI is 1.65 for the series on bank
Debits, all SMSA.ffl except New York (series 51). This indicates
that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the
average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series. The ADR measures shown in the next two columns,
1.50 for I and 30.40 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component.
Finally, ADR is 4.29'for the MCD moving average. This indicates that a 3-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted
series (3 months being the MCD span) reverses direction, on
'the average, about every 4 months. The increase in the ADR
from 1.65 for CI to 4.29 for the MCD moving average indicates
that, for this series, month-to-month changes in the MCD moving
average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements
of the series, whereas the month-to-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 2.-Average Unit Changes
Monthly series
31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories
Period
covered
Unit of
measure
CI
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
bil. dol..
3.60
20. Change in book value of manufacturers'
inventories of materials, supplies... Jan. » 53-Sep. '65 ....do
; 1.51
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Bil. dol...
.48
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit..
Jan. '55-Dec.'64 Ann. rate,
bil. dol.. 4.34
93. Free reserves
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Mil. dol... 98.01
(
Jan. '53-Sep. 65 Ann. rate,
85 . Change in money supply
percent . . .3. 11\
98. Change, money supply and time deposits' Jan. '53-Sep. '65
do
2.52
112. Change in business loans
Aug.'59-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
bil. dol.. 1.39
.87
113. Change in consumer installment debt... 'Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 ....do
88. Merchandise trade balance
iJan. '53-Jun. '62 Mil. dol... 58.44
Quarterly series
21. Change in business inventories, all
industries
Period
covered
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
95. Balance, Fed. income and product acct. IQ'53-IIIQ'65
89a U.S. balance of payments (liquidity).. "IQ'53-IIIQ'65
Unit of
measure
C
3.47
.74 4.70
5 .98 1.48 1.45
1.44
.46
.29 4.97
.13 3.51
6 (l> L.67 1.50 6.08
4 .98 L.69 1.62 7.60
The measures in the above table are computed by an additive
method to avoid the distortion caused by zero and negative
data. Thus, "CI" is the average month-to-month (or quarterto-quarter) change in the seasonally adjusted series. This
average is computed without regard to sign and is expressed in
8.94 2.79
3.00
3.10
4.22
.82 5.16
78.89 46.86 1.68
5 .98 L.59 1.43 7.44 2.74
3 .68 2.03 1.60 K).13 3.49
.29 10.88
.29 8.78
6 t1) L.37 1.37 9.50 2.67
6 (X)L.43 1.43 10.13 2.41
3.12
2.53
1.35
.35 3.87
.79
.31 2.56
55.87 17.28 3.23
I
C
i/c
Ann. rate,
bil. dol.. 2.28 1.43 1.44 1.00
2.49
.76
....do
1.35 1.78
Mil. dol... 340.64 225.64 216.94 1.04
computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
CI
I
duration of
i/c Average
run (ADR)
for
I/C MCD MCD
C MCD
span CI I
5 .95 1.62 1.55 6.64
3 .92 L.65 1.49 10.13
3 .97 1.82 1.61 9.42
2.56
3.13
2.64
I/C Average duration of
run (ADR)
QCD for
QCD
span
ci
I
C
2 .46 1.79 1.35 4.55
1 .76 2.17 1.35 3.85
2 .45 1.67 1.25 3,13
QCD
2.88
2.17
2.72
the same unit of measure as the series itself. "C" is the same
for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the
seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular
component, which is determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures shown above have the same meaning as in
part 1.
69
Appendix D.-CURRENT ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES (MAY 1965 TO JUNE 1966)
1965
1966
Qrt -w-i p e
May
June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan, Feb. Mar, Apr.
77.6 73 g
4. Temporary layoff, all industries
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
82.3 83.8
103.1 105.8
13. New business incorporations1
95.7 106.6
14, Liabilities of business failures
15.
17.
18.
30.
37,
Large 'business failures. ............. 99.5
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg.101.3
106.3
Profits per dollar of sales, mfg.2...
Nonagri. placements, all industries1. 107.4
Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories
107.1
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and foods
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg..,
81. Consumer prices
82. Federal cash payments to public1
83. Federal cash receipts from public1...
90,
91.
92.
112.
128.
100.0
98.6
99.7
98,4
117.5
Defense Dept. oblig., procurement.... 93.8
Defense Dept. obligations, total
88 6
Military contract awards3 in U.S
90 2
Change in business loans
100 0
Japan, industrial production index... 100.1
107.2 140.3 86.9
90.4 89.9
92.0 156.7 112.6 86.1
92.6
May June
73.3
81.9
sa.6
105 3 83.9 77.4 88.6 104.5 138.5 147.0 108.0 92.9 91.8 81.1
102.6 95.0 93.1 94.9 86.9 107.0 111.6 92.8 116.5 101.6 102.6 105.2
100.7 104.7 96.7 95.8 107.6 76.2 92.4 101.0 104.8 103,0 104,3 111.1
95,7 91.3 94.6 95.0 83.7 110,2 114.1 111.8 106.7 100.8 101.6
98.8 101.8 102.7 100.6 97.5 98.2 99.5 100.2 101.0 101,4 102.6
106.2
96.3
100.5
96.9
111.3 102.4 112.2 121.8 111.7 97.6 82.1 79.3 76.7 92.8 102.1 110.7 109.8
102,3
102.5
86.3
96.3
92.6 104,4 109.7 106.1 114.2 108.9
101.6
92.7
90.2
88.6
99.9 99.9 99,8
99.9
97.7 104.1 101.2 98.3
99.9 100 2 100 0 100,1
104.0
97 0 114 2 96 9
152.3 49.1 114.4 124.9
100.0
97.0
100 1
101 9
45.4
100.0
99.5
100,0
101,4
101.6
100.1
102.6
100 0
105 8
107.9
100.1
102.3
100 0
91 4
68.0
100.0
100.6
99 9
94 4
113.0
100.0
99.8
99 9
94 1
126.5
100.0
98.9
99 9
97 8
80.4
99.9
99.9
98.6 97.7
99 8 99 9
100 3 104 7
118.4 152.6
87.4 87.1
179.9
143.1 115 2 92 4
171 9 72 8 88 4
99 6 98 9 98 5
99.8 100.0 96.4
100.0 96.4
106 3 91 7
101 1 85 4
99 9 101 3
99." 6 98,8
99.2
96 1
90 5
101 3
102.3
82.8
94 4
95 5
100 4
94.0
83.4
82 0
87 2
99 5
100.7
99.2
97 5
113 8
100 5
108.2
95.6
96 1
84 3
100 5
99.4
95.7
91 4
90 1
100 2
99.9
99.0
94.8 92.9
93.2
99 7
103 9
99 3
99.5
179.0
142 2
174 7
99 8
100.6
MOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form.
Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever they are published. For a description of the
method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census Method II
Seasonal Adjustment Program.
•"•Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these
combined
factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in .middle month of quarter.
3
Factors apply to total series before .month-to-month changes are computed.
70
Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: 1920 TO 1961
Percent change: Reference peak to reference trough
Contractions:
Reference peak to
reference trough
Jan.
May
Oct.
Aug.
May
1920-July
1923-July
1926-Nov.
1929-Mar.
1937-June
1921
1924
1927
1933
1938
Feb. 1945 -Oct. 19454
Nov. 1948-Oct. 1949
July 1953-Aug . 19545
July 1957-Apr . 1958
May 1960-Feb. 1961
Median: 6
All contractions
Excluding postwar contractions
4 contractions since 1948.
41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
47. Index 50. GNP 49. GNP
of indus- in 1958 in curtrial
dollars rent
dollars
produc(Q)1
, tion
(Q)1
43. Unemployment rate, total
51. Bank 52. Per- 54. Sales
of retail Change
debits, sonal
income
all
stores
in rate, Rate at
peak
peak to
SMSA's
trough
except
New York
2
2
+7.9
2
+2.3
2
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-31.6
-10.4
-31.6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31.7
(NA)
-0.3
+2.3
-28.0
-8.9
-19.7
-2.3
+0.4
-49.6
-11.9
-22.5
-3.1
+8.7
-61.9
-16.5
-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9
-6.2
0.0
0.0
-47.4
-18.5
+'2.2
+25.4
+8.8
-7.9
-5.1
-3.4
-3.9
-1.9
-31.4
-8.5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.7
(NA)
-1.6
-2.2
-3.4
-1.4
-10.9
-3.4
-0.8
-1.8
-0.2
-1.0
-4.0
+1.6
-3.1
+2.4
-4.0
-4.7
0.0
+0.2
+0.9
+9.9
0.0
-0.7
-1.6
-2.4
+2.2
+4.1
+3.5
+3.2
+1.6
-5.6
-16.0
-1.9
-2.8
-3.1
-2.0
-1.2
-6.5
-3.6
-16.0
-8.8
-2,1
-1.9
-2.8
-1.3
-3.6
-0.8
-2.4
+0.1
-2.0
-1.2
4.0
Rate at
trough
2
0,0
11.2
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
1.1
3.8
2.6
4.2
5.2
3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4
6.8
+3.4
3.5
7.1
+3.6
+3.4
3.9
4.0
7.6
7.1
2
3.22
1.9
3
3
43. Unemployment rate, total
Percent change: Reference trough to reference peak
41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
47. Index
of industrial
production
50. GNP
in 1958
dollars
(Q)1
49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)1
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+40.2
+45.9
+64.2
+30.4
+24.1
+119.9
+183.3
(NA)
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
(NA)
+25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6
+23.5
+18.9
+20.4
+78.4
+131.7
+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3
+13.3
+8.8
+2.7
+85.6
+102.0
-0.9
-14.2
-18.9
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
+17.2
+17.8
+8.9
+6.8
+21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+25.2
+3.3
+28.8
+11.8
+11.4
+34.9
+44.1
+22.4
+15.1
+51.5
+49.3
+28.6
+21.2
+28.5
+41.4
+22.1
+13.3
+59.7
+26.3
+20.0
+10.9
+0.3
-5.3
-1.9
-2.2
3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4
All ftYparifll(>T>«
+17.5
+35.2
+12.3
+27.5
+33.8
+26.7
+19.9
-3.7
7.1
3.3
Excluding wartime expansions
..
4 expansions since 1945...
+13.0
+13.0
+26.6
+23.6
+12.1
+11.6
+20.9
+28.6
+24.4
+39.0
+21.3
+25.3
+14.7
+23.2
-2.6
-2.0
6.3
6.8
3.7
3.9
Expansions:
Reference trough to
reference pealc
July
July
Nov.
Mar.
June
1921-May 1923
1924-Oct . 1926
1927-Aug. 1929.*
1933-May 1937
1938-Feb. 19454... ....
Oct. 1945-Nov.
Oct. 1949-July
Aug. 1954-July
Apr. 1958-May
Median: 6
1948.
19535
1957.
1960.
51. Bank 52. Per- 54. Sales
of retail Change
debits, sonal
all
stores
in rate, Rate at
income
trough
trough
SMSA's
to peak
except
New York
2
-8.7
2
-3.6
2
2
Rate at
peak
2
3.2
2
1.9
23
3.2
11.2
1.1
3
3.6
2.6
4.2
5.2
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 54), the figure for
the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 51), the average of the 3
months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is
the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
NA Not available.
^•The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st quarter
1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER) vol. 1, p. 670.
2
Based on average for the calendar year.
3
Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
4
World War II contraction or expansion period.
5
Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
71
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
Historical data, including latest revisions, are presented for selected series each month. See the Series Finding Guide for the
publication date of the latest historical figures for each series. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year
194$
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
Jan.
10,883
10,949
11,339
13,885
13 030
14,352
13,712
14,765
15,495
16,329
16,659
17,583
18 , 092
17,918
18,997
72
Feb.
10,866
11,099
11,589
13,716
13 274
14,325
14,055
14,896
15,370
16,635
16,374
17,712
18,159
17,894
19,043
Mar.
11,021
11,191
11,674
13,021
12,890
14, as
14,020
15,005
15,663
16,453
16,319
17,860
18,139
17,984
19,330
Apr.
11,210
11,290
11,716
12,735
13 208
14,218
13,991
15,255
15,516
16,493
16,535
17,871
18 615
17,865
19,430
May
June
July
i54- Sales of retail stores (Mi;U
10,906
11,257
11,173
11,217
10,993
11,223
13,300
11,916
12,345
12,792
12,840
12,651
13 512
13 885
13 708
14,090
14,146
14,167
14,272
13,957
13,991
15,126
15,260
15,404
15,797
15,771
15,744
16,820
16,799
16,534
16,476
16,746
16', 517
18,011
18,169
18,175
18 128
18,312
18 337
18,091
18,234
18,024
19,567
19,597
19,341
Aug.
dol.)
11,331
11,106
13,349
12,936
13 212
14,017
13,996
15,418
15,826
16,967
16,853
18,285
18 , 190
18,322
19,654
Sept.
11,230
11,263
12,694
12,855
13 430
14,007
14,073
15,677
15,906
16,841
16,745
18,046
18 173
18,416
19,880
Oct.
Nov.
11,240
11,160
12,358
13,094
14 047
14,060
14,081
15,715
15,933
16,782
16,662
18,178
18 333
18,527
19,901
11,159
11,221
12,069
13,099
13.891
13,855
14,406
15,652
16,106
16,699
17,048
17,699
18,071
18,761
20,062
Dec.
11,404
11,052
12,959
12,924
14, 266
13,719
14,671
15,531
16,193
16,647
17,605
17,617
3/7^939
18,827
20,204
INDEX
SERIES FINDING GUIDE
(Page Numbers)
Economic Process Group
and Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Charts
Timing
classifica- 1 2
3
tion
Tables
1
2
4
5
Appendixes
6
7
B
C
D
F
E
Page
G
Issue
Page
Issue
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
1. Avg. workweek, production workers, mfg. .
2 Accession rate manufacturing
46. Help-wanted advertising
30. Nonagricultural placements, all indus —
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments
42. Total nonagricultural employment
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing
4. Temporary layoff, all industries
5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance .
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, State.
43. Unemployment rate, total
40. Unemployment rate, married males
L
L
C
L
C
C
L
L
L
C
C
C
10
10
15
10
15
15
10
10
10
15
15
15
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
16
16
16
17
17
17
16
17
59
59
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
24
24
28
24
28
28
24
24
24
28
28
28
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
29
29
28
29
29
29
29
29
8
8
8
8
8
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
25
25
25
25
24
24
34
25
25
25
30
32
34
34
8
8
8
9
8
9
8
8
8
27
26
27
30
27
30
27
27
27
8
8
8
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
27
26
29
34
30
30
26
26
26
26
62
62
63
63
66
62
63
66
62
63
62
63
66
62
62
62
62
63
63
63
63
62
63
66
66
66
66
66
66
62
63
••
62
62
63
63
66
62
62
62
63
63
63
66
62
63
66
62
63
66
67
67
67
67 70
67
67
67
67 70
67 70
67
67
67
72
72
*66
*66
71 71
72
72
*66
*66
*66
71 71
• 71
68
68
67
67
67
67
68
67
71
71
71
71
Jan.
Jan.
Feb.
Oct.
Feb.
Feb.
Jan.
Nov.
' 66
' 66
'64
'63
'66
'65
'66
'63
July
'63
Mar.
Feb.
Feb.
'64
'66
'66
Aug.
Aug.
'65
'65
*•
II. PRODUCTION, INCOME AND TRADE
dQ GNP in current dollars
50 GNP in 1958 dollars
47. Industrial production
.
52 Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr
54 Sales of retail stores
57 Final sales
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y
60
60
59
••
••
••
71
••
71
71
71
70
72
72
72
72
72
Sept. '64
Aug.
Aug.
Apr.
Aug.
Mar.
'65
'65
' 66
'65
'65
June
July
June
' 65
'65
'65
Aug.
May
Dec.
'63
'64
'63
Nov.
'64
>*
.*
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
29. New building permits, private housing
L
L
7 Private nonfarm housing starts
38. Index of net business formation
L
L
13. New business incorporations
6. New orders, durable goods industries .... L
24. New orders, mach. and equip, industries . . L
U
94 Construction contracts value
9. Construction contracts, comm. and indus. . L
10. Contracts and orders, ptant and equipment.
L
L
11 New capital appropriations mfg
61. Bus. expenditures, new plant and equip . .Lg
Ill Corporate gross savings
U
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries . U
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg . .-. U
11
11
12
12
11
11
22
11
11
11
18
20
22
22
58
60
••
••
66
67
67
67
67
67
67
68
67
67
68
68
68
68
68
70
•*
••
74
74
74
*66
65
*66
68
65
72
66
68
June
' 64
Nov.
'65
June
'64
Nov.
'64
*66
71
65
66
64
66
*68
65
*66
Dec.
Aug.
'63
'65
June
June
June
June.
June
June
' 64
'64
' 64
'64
'63
' 64
Mar.
'64
*66
66
69
70
73
73
71
73
64
74
Jan.
Apr.
Aug.
Aug.
Oct.
Oct.
Aug.
Oct.
'64
'64
'64
'64
'65
'65
'65
'65
••
73
July '64
IV. INVENTORIES
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods. . L
21. Change in business inventories (GNP) . . . L
L
31 Change mfg and trade inventories
64 Manufacturers' inventories total
Lg
20. Change, mtls. and supplies inventories. . .
65. Mfrs. inventories, finished goods
Lg
37. Purchased, materials, higher inventories. .
L
26 Buying policy production materials
32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries . . . L
14
14
14
18
14
18
14
14
14
60
•*
•*
62
63
••
66
69
69
69
67
69
67
67
67
67
70
V. PRICES, COSTS AND PROFITS
23 Industrial materials prices
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods
L
L
C
U
62 Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
f-g
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corp. GNP. . . Lg
16 Corporate profits after taxes
17 Ratio price to unit labor cost, mfg
L
L
18 Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
22. Profits to income originating, corporate. . . L
14
13
17
22
18
18
13
13
13
13
58
58
59
••
61
58
•*
•.
•.
62
62
62
63
63
63
62
63
62
62
63
63
66 67
66 67
* • 67
68
66 67
68
68
66 67
68
68
70
70
70
70
70
June '64
Sept. '65
L = leading, C = roughly coincident, Lg = lagging, U = unclassified (includes "other selected U.S. series" and "international comparisons"). *Appendix G.
73
SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
(Page Numbers)
Economic Process Group
and Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Timing
classification
Charts
1
2
Appendixes
Tables
3
1
2
4
5
6
7
B
C
D
G
F
E
Page
Issue
Page
Issue
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
85. Change in money supply
U
98. Change, money supply and time deposits . . U
U
93 Free reserves
66. Consumer installment debt
113 Change consumer installment debt
U
112. Change in business loans
U
110. Total private borrowing
20
20
20
18
20
20
20
114 Treasury bill rate
115 Treasury bond yields
116 Corporate bond yields . . . • • *
117 Municipal bond yields
118 Mortgage yields •
*
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans . .
14 Liabilities of business failures
15 Large business failures ....«
L
21
21
21
21
21
18
12
12
U
U
U
U
22
22
22
22
U
U
U
U
U
U
U
U
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
U
U
U
U
U
U
U
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
p
U
U
U
U
U
Lg
61
61
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
32
32
32
30
33
32
32
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
33
33
33
33
33
30
25
26
9
9
9
9
33
34
34
34
68
68
69
69
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
32
67
67
69
69
67
67
67
67
62
63
62
63
69
69
69
67
69
69
68
*.
62
62
.>
63
63
66
67
67
67
67
67
68
67
67
73
74
66
70
71
71
72
Aug.
Aug.
Oct.
Aug.
July
July
Nov.
'65
'65
'64
'64
' 64 73
' 64 73
'65 73
July
July
July
'64
'64
' 64
71
72
72
72
• . 72
70
*66
*66
July
July
July
July
July
Aug.
Nov.
Mar.
' 64
'64
'64
' 64
' 64
'64
'63
'64
74
74
74
74
74
July
July
July
July
July
' 64
'64
'64
'64
' 64
71
72
72
74
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
July
'66
'66
'66
'65
73
73
73
72
70
70
70
66
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Sept.
Sept.
Sept.
Oct.
'65
'65
'65
'65
'64
'64
'64
'64
66
67
67
67
67
68
68
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Get.
Oct.
Oct.
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
70
70
70
Vtl. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
86. Exports excluding military aid
87. General imports
88. Merchandise trade balance
89 U S balance of payments . . . «
VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
93 Federal cash receipts from public
82 Federal cash payments to public
84 Federal cash surplus or deficit
95. Balance, Fed. income and prod, account . .
91. Defense Department obligations, total
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement. . .
92. Military contract awards in U,S
99 New orders defense products
. . •.
61
..
62
63
70
70
70
70
70
,t
IX. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
121.
122.
123,
125
126.
127.
128.
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
production, OECD, „
production, United Kingdom
production, Canada
production West Germany
production, France
production, Italy.
production, Japan
68
68"
68
68
68
68
68 70
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
• •.
••
.•
**
..
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Dl Average workweek
05. Initial claims
D6. New orders
Oil- Capital appropriations
1-month. .
9-month. .
1-month. .
9-month..
1-month. .
9-month..
, 1 -quarter. .
3-quarter..
D19. Stock prices
*»
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
, . 1-month. .
9-month. .
Industrial materials prices .... 1-month. .
9-month..
Profits, mfg
1-quarter. .
Net sales, mfrs
4-quarter. .
New orders
4-quarter. .
39
39
39
39
39
. . 41
41
D41. Employees in nonagri.establish. 1-month..
6-month..
D47. Industrial production
1-month. .
6-month. .
D48. Freight carloadings
4-quarter. .
D54. Retail sales
1-month. .
9-month..
D58. Wholesale prices, mfg
> . 1-month. .
6-month. .
D61. New plant and equip, expend.. 1-quarter. .
40
. . 40
40
40
41
40
40
40
40
41
D23.
D34.
D35.
D36.
••
.*
..
*•
42
42
43
43
42
42
42
42
46-7
46-7
56
56
46-9
46-9
72
68
73
73
72
69
73
73
Mar.
Oct.
May.
May
Apr.
Oct.
Feb.
Feb.
'65
'64
'65
'65
'65
'64
'65
'65
43
43
43
43
43
45
45
55
55
48-9
48-9
72
69
72
73
69
70
70
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Feb.
Oct.
Nov.
Nov.
'65
'64
'65
'65
'64
'64
' 64
44
44
44
44
45
44
44
44
44
45
50-3
50-3
52-3
52-3
72
70
73
70
68-9
73
70
73
73
69
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Oct.
Nov.
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Feb.
Nov.
'65
'64
'65
'64
'64
'65
'64
'65
'65
'64
48-51
48-51
52-5
52-5
•-
••
*•
••
•-
L = leading, C = roughly coincident, Lg = lagging, U = unclassified (includes "other selected U.S. series" and "international comparisons"). *Appendix G.
74
•*
..
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COUNTY BUSINESS if PATTERNS ° 1964
Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order " M" indicates monthly series "Q" indicates
quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "EOM" or "EOQ". "EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and "EOQ" indicates
data are for the end of the quarter. The Roman numeral identifies the economic process group in which a series is listed in the Finding Guide. Thus, "(M,!!)" indicates a monthly
series listed in group II. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk (*) were
included in the 1960 NBER list of 26 indicators,
30 NBER LEADING INDICATORS
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
*1, Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M,I).--Department Of Labor,
total (M,IV).—Depart-
ment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Bureau of Labor Statistics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M,IV).--Chicago Purchasing
*2. Accession rote, manufacturing (M,l).~Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*3. Loyoff rate, manufacturing (M,l).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials (M,IV).-National AsSOCia-
tion of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
4. Number of persons on temporory.layoff, all industries (M,l).--Department Of Labor, Bu-
reau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (Mrl).-De-
partment of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (M,III).--Department Of
*38. Index of net business formation (M,lll}»--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc., and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
15 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
40. Unemployment rate, married mates, spouse present (M,I).--Department Of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started (M,lll).--Department Of Commerce, Bureau
*41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (M,I).-Department Of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
of the Census
*9, Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings,
floor space
(M,lll).--F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M,I).--Department Of Labor, Bll-
reau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment {M,l!l).--Departmentof Commerce, Bureau
*43, Unemployment rate, total (M,I).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
of the Census, and F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, inc.
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M,I).-Department Of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q,III).—Na-
tional Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted
and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M,l).-Nationat Industrial Conference
Board
13. Number of new business incorporations (M,lll}.-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
*47, index of industriol production (M,ll).»Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q,II).-Department Of Commerce, Office Of
*14. Current liabilities of business failures (M,vi).~Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
15. Number of business failures with liabilities of
$100,000 and over
of Business Economics
*50 Gross national product in 1958 dollars {Q,M).-Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(M,VI).--Dun
and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*l6i Corporate profits after taxes(Q,V).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*51. Bank debits, all standard metropolitan statistical areas except New York (224 SMSA's)
(M,il).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*52. Personal income (M,ll).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M,ll).-Department Of Com-
17. Price per unit of labor cost index—ratio, wholesale prices of manufactured goods index to index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of output (M,V).-Department Of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics;
and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q,V).—
Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission;
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
seasonal
*19, Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M,V).-Standard and Poor's Corporation; no
seasonal adjustment
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies (M,IV).—
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuation adjustment (GNP
component) (Q,IV).»-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries (Q,V).--
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M,V).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (M,III).—De-
partment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M,IV).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
26. Buying policy-production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer
(M,iv).-National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M,III).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
30. Nonogricultural placements, all industries (M,i).»Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; sea$onal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
merce, Office of Business Economics
*54. Sales of retail stores (M,ll).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*55. Index of wholesale prices,all commodities other than farm productsand foods (M,V).—
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q,ll).--Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q,III).-Department Of Coill-
merce, Office of Business Economics, and the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing-ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages and salaries and supplements
to wages and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M,V).--
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing industries(EOM,IV).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all manufacturing Industries (EOM,lv).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*66. Consumer installment debt (EOM,Vl).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted figure
for previous month to obtain current figure
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (EQQ,VI ).-Board Of Governors Of
the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate gross national product {ratio of compensation of employees in corporate enterprises to value of corporate product in
1958 dollars) (Q,v).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, National Income Division
Continued on reverse
UNITED STATES
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POSTAGE AND FEES PAID
U.S.
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
FIRST CLASS MAIL
Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes-Con.
28 OTHER SELECTED U.S.
SERIES
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M,VI).»Board Of Governors Of the federal
81. Index of consumer prices (M,v).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
82. Federal cash payments to the public (M,VI11).-Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget; seasonal
adjustment by the Bureau of the Census
83. Federal cash receipts from the public (Q,M,vill).--Treasury Department, Bureau of
Accounts, and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget; seasonal
adjustment by the Bureau of tne Census
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit (Q,M,viu).-Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts,
and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget; seasonal adjustment
by the Bureau of the Census
85. Percent crxjrvge in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits plus currency) (M,VI).--
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Reserve System; seasonal adjustnient by Bureau of the Census
113. Net change in consumer installment debt (M,VI).-Board Of GOVernOfS Of the Federal
Reserve System
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury kills (M,VI),-BoSTd Of GoVSTWfS Of
the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bands (M,VI).-Treasury Department; no seasonal id*
justoent
116. Yield an new issues of high-grade corporate bond* (M,VI).«Fir$t NltlOAll City Bank
of Hew York and Treasury Department; no seasonal adjustment
117. Yield on municipal bonds,20-bond average (M,VI).-The Bond Buyer; 11© MISOMl %fc
justment
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M,VI),~f 6'deral Housing Administration;
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M,VII).~Departmenf O'f Commerce,
no seasonal adjustment
Bureau of the Census
7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
87. General imports, total (M,vii).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
88. Merchandise trade bo lance (series 86 minus series 87) (M,VII).-Department of COfTl-
merce, Bureau of the Census
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, futofwr* Coyntrit*, itxlex
of industrial production (M,ix).»0rganization for Economic Cooperation «td
Development
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M,IX).»C&ntral Statistical Office
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments (Q,VII).-Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(London)
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M,lX).~Doiinion Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa)
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement (M,Vllt).-Department Of Defense, Fiscal
Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of tne Census
125. West Germany,
91. Defense Department obligations, total (M,VIM).--Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
index of industrial production (M,IX).~Stati$tl$Che$ Bllnde$«llt
(Wiesbaden)
126. France, Index of industrial production (M,IX).-!n$tihlt National de $tatI$ti(|U« ft <&$
Etudes Economiques (Paris)
92. Military prime contract awards, U.S. business firms (M,VIM).-Department Of Defense,
Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) (M,VI).-Board of GOV-
ernors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M,III).--F. W. Dodge Corporation
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M,IX).-institute Centraie di Statistica (Rone)
128. japan, index of industrial production (M,IX).-Ministry of International Trade and
Industry (Tokyo); seasonal adjustment by compiler and Bureau of the Gsisos
. . . United States, index of industrial production {M, 11).-See $6065 47.
95. Surplus or deficit, Federal income and product account (Q,VMI).--Depaftment Of Com-
merce, Office of Business Economics
96. Manufacturers'unfit ltd orders, durable goods industries (EOM,Ml).-Department of Com-
merce, Bureau of the Census
DIFFUSION INDEXIS
The "0'J preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion Indexes and cwrt*
spending business cycle series bear the same number and are obtained from tttt $amt
sources. See sources above for 01,05,06,011, 019,023,041,047,054, and Oil.
Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows;
97. Bocklog of capital appropriations,manufacturing (EOQ,Ml).-National Industrial Confer-
ence Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted and added to obtain sea*
sonaHy adjusted total
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits and currency)
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-First National City Bank of New York; no siasonal adjustment of series components. Diffusion indexes ire seasonally adjusted
by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
and com-
mercial bonk time deposits (M,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
99. New orders, defense products (M,viii).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
D35. Net sales, total manufactures (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; no seasonal adjustnent
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (Q).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
HO. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets (Q,VI).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
111. Gross retained earnings of nonfinancial corporations (Q,III).-Board of Governors Of the
Federal Reserve System
D48. Freight carioadings (Qf).--Association of American Railroads; no seasonal adjustment
D58. Wholesale prices, moWactunng (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
@FedFRASER