Full text of Business Conditions Digest : April 1962
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APRIL1962
Business
Cycle
Developments
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
BUSINESS
CYCLE
DEVELOPMENTS
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Luther H. Hodges, Secretary
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Richard M. Scammon, Director
APRIL 1962
DATA THROUGH MARCH
Series ESI No.62-4
A. ROSS ECKLER, Deputy Director
HOWARD C. GRIEVES, Assistant Director
CONRAD TAEUBER, Assistant Director
MORRIS H. HANSEN, Assistant Director ior Research and Development
CHARLES B. LAWRENCE, JR, Assistant Director for Operations
WALTER L. KEHRES, Assistant Director for Administration
CALVERT L DEDRICK, Chief, International Statistical Programs Office
A. W. VON STROVE, Public Information Officer
O f f i c e of Chief Economic Statistician
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief
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CONTENTS
Important Features and Changes for This Issue
Introduction
Organization and Content of the Report
Descriptions and Procedures
How to Read the Time Series Charts
.
Page
ii
1
1
1
4
_
Basic Data
Chart 1.— Business Cycle Series: 1948 to Present:
A. NBER Leading Indicators
B . NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
C . NBER Lagging Indicators
,
D. Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance
E. International Comparisons of Industrial Production
Table 1.—Basic Data for Business Cycle Series: January 1959 to Present
5
10
13
14
17
19
Analytical Measures
Table 2.—Percentage Changes for Principal Monthly and Quarterly Series Over 1-Year Period .
Table 3.—Distribution of Highs in Business Cycle Indicators During Recent Months of the
Current Expansion
Table 4.—Distribution of Highs in Business Cycle Indicators During Recent Months Compared
With Periods Around Previous Business Cycle Peaks
Chart 2.—Diffusion Indexes: 1948 to Present:
A. NBER Leading Indicators
B. NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Chart 3 . —Diffusion Indexes—Actual and Anticipated: 1948 to Present
Table 5.—Diffusion Indexes (Percent Rising) Over Specified Intervals for 12 Major Economic
Activities: October 1958 to Present
Table 6.—Diffusion Indexes, Actual and Anticipated,, Over Specified Intervals for 4 Manufacturing Activities: October 1958 to Present
Table 7.—Direction of Change in Series Components Over Specified Time Spans and Percent of
Series Rising: July 1959 to Present:
A. ( D l ) Average Workweek of Production Workers, Manufacturing (21 Industries)
B. ( D 6 ) Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods Industries (21 Industries) ...
C. (D19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks (24 Industries)
D. (D23) Index of Industrial Materials Prices ( 13 Industrial Materials)
E. (D5) Average Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, State Programs
( 26 Areas)
F. ( D 4 l ) Number of Employees in Nonagricultural Establishments (30 Industries)
G. (D47) Index of Industrial Production ( 25 Industries)
H. (D54) Sales of Retail Stores ( 2 4 Types of Stores)
29
31
32
33
34
35
36
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
Cyclical Patterns
Chart 4. —Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns
Chart 5. —Comparisons of Specific Cycle Patterns
Table 8.—Percent of Reference Peak Levels as Measured at Designated Months After the
Reference Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions, for Selected Series.
Table 9. —Percent Change From Reference Trough Levels as Measured at Designated Months
After the Reference Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions, for Selected Series
Table 10.—Percent of "Specific" Peak Levels and Percent Change From "Specific" Trough
Levels as Measured at Designated Months After the Specific Trough Dates in the 9 Most
Recent Expansions, for Selected Series
48
53
57
58
59
Appendix
Table A.—Business Cycle Reference Dates and Duration of Expansions and Contractions in the
United States: 1854 to 1961
Table B. — "Specific" Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators
Table C.—Average Percentage Changes and Related Measures for 55 Monthly and 9 Quarterly
Business Cycle Series
,
Table D.—Seasonal Adjustment Factors, May 1961 to June 1962, for Business Cycle Series
Adjusted by Bureau of the Census or NBER
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D.C. -
61
62
63
66
Price 40 cents
IMPORTANT FEATURES AND CHANGES FOR THIS ISSUE
A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the
change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings of
business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize
the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may involve
additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation to other
series, changes in components of indexes, etc. These changes will be listed in
this section each month. The changes made in this issue are as follows:
1. A new table (see table 4) showing historical timing distributions has been
a.dded as an aid to interpretation of distributions shown, in table 3, for the current expansion.
2. A new table (see table 9) showing percent changes from reference trough
dates has been added to provide data similar to that showing changes from specific dates in table 10.
3. A page has been added to chart 4 showing comparisons of reference cycle
patterns for four lagging indicators.
4. A n e w series on unemployment rate of married males (series 40) has
been added to the report. This series replaces the series on number of unemployed persons 14 years old and over (series 44) .
5. The series on average weekly insured unemployment (series 45) has been
converted to a rate (percent of covered employment) .
6. The series on wholesale prices, except farm products and foods (series
55) has been revised back to January 1948 because of a new seasonal adjustment
made by the X-9 program.
7. Revisions, back to January 1960, are shown for contracts and orders for
plant and equipment (series 10) and price per unit of labor cost index (series
17) . The revisions reflect new seasonal adjustments for components.
BACKGROUND MATERIALS
Experimental work for this report was carried out in collaboration with the NBER which is
responsible for much of the early research in this field. The paper, "Signals of Recession and
Recovery," contains an explanation of research findings helpful in interpreting current cyclical
trends, a. more detailed description of the indicators and measures used, and additional historical
data. This paper was issued as Occasional Paper 77 of the National Bureau of Economic Research,
261 Madison Avenue, New York 16, N . Y . ( 2 0 7 pages, price $ 3 ) .
ii
Business Cycle Developments
INTRODUCTION
This report has been prepared to bring togethe
many of the available economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation by
specialists in business cycle analysis.
The presentation and classification .of series in this report
follows the business indicators approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning
dates are those designated by the National Bureau
of Economic Research (NBER) which, in recent
years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken
as implying acceptance or endorsement by the
Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle
analysis. It is intended only tX> supplement other
reports of the Department of Commerce that provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data
according to their usual timing relations during the
course of the business cycle and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical
comparisons that help in evaluating the current
stage of the business cycle.
The chief merits of this report are the speed
with which the data for indicators are collected,
assembled, and published and the arrangement of
the series for business cycle studies.
Electronic
computers are used for many of the computations,
thus making early publication possible. Publication is scheduled for about the 20th of the month
following the month of data.
About 70 principal indicators and over 300 components are used for the different measures shown.
The movements of the series are shown against the
background of the expansions and contractions of
the general business cycle so that "leads" and
"lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical
developments spotted. The exact number of series
included for the total and important classes of
series may vary from month to month because of
additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes.
Almost all of the basic data
are available in published reports. A complete list
of the series and the sources of data is shown on
the back cover of this report.
All the data shown
are seasonally adjusted where seasonal variations
appear to exist.
ORGANIZATION AND CONTENT OF THE REPORT
Three types of data are shown in this report.
They are as follows:
Basic data (chart 1 and table 1) . —Over 50 business cycle indicators and 20 additional series with
business cycle significance are included,, Together
they provide a broad view of current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as
well as the basis for making an economic i n t e r p r e tation of these fluctuations.
Analytical measures (charts 2-3 and tables 2-7).—
These are measures which aid in forming a judgment of ( 1 ) the magnitude of current changes compared to previous changes, (2) the imminence of a
turning point in the business cycle, and ( 3 ) the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also aid in pointing to developments
in particular industries and places.
Cyclical patterns (charts 4-5 and tables 8-10).—
The current cyclical change is compared with
changes at corresponding stages of earlier cycles.
These comparisons are rrv»de in different ways depending upon the phase of tne business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular report, certain appendix materials are presented. These materials include historical data,
key information, and adjustment f a c t o r s .
DESCRIPTIONS AND PROCEDURES
Business Cycle Series
The three major groups of series are those with
a fairly consistent timing relation to the business
cycle. They are grouped, in accordance with the
NBER classification, as "leading," "roughly coincident," or "lagging' 1 indicators. Additional series
are also included for a more complete coverage of
the national economy. The series are described as
follows:
NBER Leading Indicators. —Around 30 series
usually reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate economic activity as measured by the
roughly coincident series (see below). For this
reason, they are designated as "leading" series.
One group of these series pertains to activities in
the labor market, another to orders and contracts,
and so on.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators. —About 15
series are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial production or retail sales. For this reason they are
r e f e r r e d to as "roughly coincident" series.
NBER Lagging Indicators . —Some series , such
as new plant and equipment expenditures and manuf a c t u r e r s ' inventories, usually have reached turning points after they were reached in aggregate
economic activity, and for this reason, they are
designated as "lagging" series.
Other s e r i e s . — A b o u t 20 additional U . S . series
with business cycle significance are also shown.
Some of these series, such as change in money supply, merchandise trade balance, and cash surplus
or deficit, represent important f a c t o r s in the economy, but they have not qualified as indicators for
various reasons, such as irregularity in timing.
Finally, industrial production indexes for several
countries which have important trade relations with
the United States are p r e s e n t e d .
1
Descriptions and Procedures
Seasonal Adjustment:;
Official seasonally adjusted data are used in this
report wherever they are available. However, for
the special purposes of business cycle studies, a
number of series that are not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report.
These series
are as follows:
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
industries
5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs
9, Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space
13. Number of new business incorporations
14. Current liabilities of business failures
15. Number of business failures with liabilities
of $100,000 and over
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales >
all manufacturing corporations
25. Change in manufacturers 1 unfilled orders,
durable goods industries
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries
45. Average weekly insured unemployment, State
programs
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than farm products and foods
81. Index of consumer prices
82. Federal cash payments to the public
83. Federal cash receipts from the public
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement
91. Defense Department obligations, total
92. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms
125. West Germany, index of industrial production
128. Japan, index of industrial production
Seasonal adjustments for these series were developed by either the Bureau of the Census or the
NBER. The adjustment factors used are shown in
the appendix, table D. Seasonally adjusted data
prepared by the collecting agency will be substituted
for the series mentioned above whenever they are
published.
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
The historical business cycle turning points are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate date when aggregate economic activity
reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, a business cycle turning point
will not be designated until at least 6 months after
it has occurred.
Charts
Time series line charts (charts 1-3) are used to
show the cyclical timing and pattern of each series.
Since various ratio and arithmetic scales are used,
rates of change are not comparable except for those
series having the same scale. See the diagram,
page 4, for additional help in using the charts.
Shaded areas on the charts indicate periods of
business cycle contraction between reference dates
for peaks ("P"—beginnings of shaded areas) and
troughs ("T M —ends of shaded areas). The shading
for a recession period will be entered only after a
trough has been designated.
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Four kinds of analytical measures are presented-!—rates of change, diffusion indexes, timing
distributions, and direction-of-change tables. These
measures aid in forming a judgment of the magnitude of current changes compared to previous
changes, the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, and the extent of current changes
in different parts of the economy. They also point
to developments in particular industries and places.
Rates of change.— There is considerable interest
in the rate of acceleration during expansions and
the rate of retardation during recessions. For this
reason, rates of change for the principal monthly
and quarterly business cycle series are included in
table 2 of this report. Rates of change are helpful
in judging and appraising trends of acceleration or
retardation in a current business cycle phase, despite the fact that the erratic nature of month-to month rates of change often makes it difficult to
determine the significance of a change until some
months after it has occurred. For series, such as
unemployment and layoffs, which usually move
down during expansions and up during recessions,
the changes are inverted so that, in table 2, rises
are shown as declines and declines as rises.
Diffusion indexes.—Diffusion indexes are simple
summary measures of groups of economic series.
They express, for a given group, the percent of the
series which has risen over given intervals of time.
Their turning points tend to lead the turning points
of the aggregate and they measure how widespread
a business change is. They vary between the limits
of 100 (all components rising) and zero (all components falling). Widespread increases are often
associated with rapid growth in aggregate activity,
and widespread declines with sharp reductions.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
Fo r monthly se rie s , two comparison inte rvals
are used: 1 -month intervals (January-February,
February-March, etc.) and 3-month intervals January-April, February-May, e t c . ) . The indexes
based on 1-month intervals are more "current" but
they are also more irregular than the 3*month indexes (see chart 2). Quarterly series are compared
over 1-quarter intervals and 4-quarter intervals.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D"
designate diffusion indexes.
When one of these
numbers corresponds to a basic indicator series
number, it means that the diffusion index has been
computed from components of the indicator series;
for example, the diffusion index numbered "D6" is
computed from components of series number 6.
Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series
components are assigned new numbers,
This report includes 29 diffusion indexes based
on 16 indicator series (see tables Sand 6). Seventeen of these indexes are computed by the Bureau
of the Census utilizing nearly 300 components of 9
indicators (Dl, D5, D6, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54,
Descriptions and Procedures
a n d D 5 8 ) . Indexes for 8 of these indicators show
comparisons for components over both 3-month and
1-month spans while, for 1 indicator (D58), comparisons are over 1-month spans only. The 12 other
diffusion indexes are based on 7 indicators closely
related to the above 9 indicators.
They include two
indexes on capital appropriations ( 6 0 2 companies
and 15 industries)—NBER indexes based on data
from the National Industrial Conference Board; the
Chicago Purchasing Agents Association index based
on monthly reports of changes in profits (200 companics); the First National City Bank of New York
index based on quarterly profit reports (600 companies); and 8 NBER diffusion indexes—actual and
anticipated—for the following: Manufacturers 1 sales
(800 companies) and new orders (400 companies),
based on data from Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; carloadings (19 commodity groups), based on data
from the Association of American Railroads; and
new plant and equipment expenditures (16 indust r i e s ) , based on data from the Office of Business
Economics and the Securities and Exchange Commission*
Diffusion indexes that are based on anticipations
show what proportion of business enterprises (or
industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a
lag in recognition of actual developments.
Diffusion indexes constructed on the basis of
current data are often highly irregular and require
careful judgment in their use and interpretation.
Timing distributions,—Distributions of current
"highs" and "lows" appear to be helpful in identifying a turning point in the business cycle promptly
after it occurs. Each month a timing distribution
is constructed which shows the number of series
reaching high (low) values during each of the recent expansion (contraction) months.
The timing
distribution is summarized by showing the number
of series reaching new highs (lows) and the percent currently high (low) for each of several recent
months (see table 3).
To provide historical perspective for interpreting
the distribution of current highs, such distributions
are shown for leading and coincident series as they
appear 3 months before the peak of each of the earlier post-World War II expansions and at their peaks
(see table 4) .
To compile timing distributions, the data for
each of the 50 business cycle indicators over the
period of the current cyclical phase are scanned
each month. During a business cycle contraction,
the low value for each series is identified; during
an expansion, the high value is identified. For inverted series, that is, series with negative conformity to the business cycle, high values are taken
during contraction andlow values during expansion.
If the values for 2 or more months are equal, the
latest date is taken as the low (high) month. In
selecting these values, erratic values are disregarded, although it is, of course, difficult to identify
an erratic value, particularly for the current month.
The letter "L." is used in the basic data table
(table 1) to identify and highlight the current low
values during contraction and the letter "H", to
identify current hi&h values during expansion* In
addition, these symbols are used to identify the low
values preceding current highs and high values
preceding current lows. These identifications facilitate an economic interpretation of the timing
distribution since they show the month in which each
economic activity reached its low or high.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be
made in light of the fact that a contraction following
a high value reached several months ago may be
the result of an erratic fluctuation and that a new
high may be reached in some future month. In
short, when the percent currently high falls below
50 percent for both the leading and roughly coincident series, this does not necessarily signify that
a business cycle peak has occurred. It may do so,
but it may also simply reflect a short reversal in
the upward movement.
Direction-of-change tables.—Direction-of-change
tables show directions of change (" + " for rising,
"o" for unchanged, and "-" for falling) in the components used for the diffusion indexes. These tables
provide a convenient view of changing business conditions and are helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more highly
aggregated statistical measures. That is, they show
which economic activities went up, which went
down, and how long such movements have persisted.
They alsohelp to show how a recession or recovery
spreads from one sector of the economy to another.
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare
the behavior of the indicator series and diffusion
indexes in the current business cycle phase with
their behavior during the corresponding phase of
previous business cycles. These comparisons are
made in different ways depending upon the phase of
the business cycle.
Contractions are compared by computing changes
over the span from the most recent business cycle
peak to the current month and over equal spans from
previous reference peaks. This type of comparison
is designated as representing changes from reference peak levels and from reference peak dates.
Expansions may be compared by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels. In this report the current expansion is related
to the May 1960 reference peak. For earlier expansions, percentage changes are also computed from
their respective reference peaks to dates which are
the same number of months beyond the succeeding
reference troughs as the current expansion is beyond its reference trough. This type of comparison
is designated as representing changes computed
from reference peak levels and from reference
trough dates. Although the spans from reference
trough dates are the same for each expansion, the
spans from the preceding peak dates are different,
depending on the length of the contractions. This
type of comparison answers the question whether,
and by how much, the current level of activity exceeds or falls short of the level at the preceding
business cycle peak, a given number of months after
the recovery began, and how the current situation
compares in this respect with earlier recoveries.
Descriptions and Procedures
Expansions also may be compared by computing
changes from reference trough levels and from
reference trough dates . This type of comparison
measures the extent of the rise from the trough
level so many months after the upswing began.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on
the basis of reference dates (which are the same
for all series) , comparisons are made on the basis
of specific peak and trough dates identified for each
series . For example, the specific peak in retail
sales corresponding to the May I960 reference peak
is April I960; the specific peak in stock prices is
July 1959.
related series for cycles prior to the initial date
covered bythe series used currently. Such comparisons are, therefore, to be considered only approximate. Nearly all series have undergone change in
definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since
1919. The principal cases of this sortare as follows:
7. New private permanent nonfarm dwelling units
started (prior to 1939: Residential building
contracts, floor space)
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Employment in
manuf acturing)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly
data as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1935: Department store sales)
62. Index of wage and salary cost per unit of output, total manufacturing (prior to 1946: Production worker wage cost per unit. Supplements to wages and salaries, which are a
part of total labor cost, are not included) .
Recent performance in several individual indicators is compared graphically with that in earlier
business cycles. In making graphic comparisons ^
the reference peak or trough levels are set equal to
100, and the reference peak or trough dates are
alined depending on the phase of the business cycle.
In order to make historical comparisons, it is
frequently necessary to use data for a closely
HOW TO READ THE TIME SERIES CHARTS (CHARTS 1-3)
Trough of cycle indicates end of
recession and beginning of
Expansion (white areas)
as designated by NBER
Peak of cycle indicates
expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas)
as designated by NBER
47. Industrial production
(1957=100)
Arabic numerals indicate latest month
for which data are plotted
Roman numerals indicate latest quarter for which data are plotted
50. GNP, 1954 dollars, Q
(billions of dollars)
Broken line indicates quarterly data
See back cover for complete title:
end sources of series
9. GNP, current dollars, Q)
(billions of dollars) /
1957
1958
V959
1960
1961
Various ratio and arithmetic scales
are used to highlight the cyclical
timing and patterns for each series;
where different.scales are used, the
rates of change are not comparable
from series to series. "Scale A" is
an arithmetic scale; "scale L-T is
a semilogarithm scale with 1 cycle;
"scale L-2", a semilogarithm scale
with 2 cycles, etc.
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
Sensitive employment and unemployment indicators |
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
42
1. Average workweek, mfg.
(hours per prod, worker)
41
40
<
ju
39
38
2. Accession rate, mfg(per 100 employees)
5.0
«1
3.0
3D. Nonag. placements, all indus.
(thousands)
J
i600 co
• 500
J400
3. Layoff rate, mfg. (inverted) • .
(per 100 employees)
jj
8
W
1
2
<
4t
3
1
75
4. Temporary layoff, all indus. (inverted)
(thousands)
100
125
150
175
200
'225
250
5. Average weekly initial claims,
unempl. insur. (inverted)
200
300
400
500
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
<»>
Jj
I
*
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
1948 TO PRESENT-Con.
NBER Leading Indicators-Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
[New investment commitments]
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
18
16
14
. New orders, durables
I
(billions of dollars) A-T'.^^Jl A
L
1948
1949
1950 1951 1952 1953
1954
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.
ur
v
12
7
24. New orders, mach. and equip.
(billions of dollars)
6
5
9. Constr. contracts, "comm. and Indus.j; ;.;;
'floor area, millions of square feet) .. •
4?
<!>
|
30
7
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip.
„
40
35
'
« 3
1
5
11. New capital appropriations, mfg., Q
(billions of dollars)
27. Buying policy, capital expenditures (NAPA)
percent reporting commitments 6 months or longer)! 3
4
75
50 4
8
25
7. Private nonfarm housing starts ip ; :;
(millions)
1.6
1.4
3
1.2
|
1.0
29. Index of new building permits, private housing units
140
120
^
TOO
I
w
80
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961 1962
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
1948 TO PRESENT-Con.
NBER Leading Indicators-Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(MayHFeb.)
P
T
New businesses and business failures
*10
12. Change, number of businesses
(thousands)
+8
+6
-i
13. New business incorporations
(thousands)
18
16
14
12
10
20
14. Liab. of bus. failures (inverted)
(millions of dollars)
'\_
"3
J8
60 8
80
100
120
140*
15. Large bus. failures (inverted)
(number per week)
.;: v •
20
30 |
40 ""
50 '
1948
1949
1950 1951 1952 1953
1954 1955 1956
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts,* page 4.
1957
1958
1959 1960 1961
1962
8
Basic Data
CHART 1
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
A Ili ll
lisll
NBER Leading ndicators-Cori.
(Nov.) (Oct.
P
T
(July)
P
: .,•••',
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
>•
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
;.l
15
;
i^y
£
1 Profits and stock prices
••'
(Aug.
T
13 p;l
1
1
1948 TO PRESENT~Con.
•S3
;•", . ,- •" %
LifcU
!;: ':'
/
-'""^ '.-'.;: v.
:
• ,;
\ .' '••• •
f.'
..
,.
'*^.....-'''
:
;.";'. ;;; ; ; ;.,
••,
. - •.• ">#
,,;;. -•. y
\
''-..-••
, , : :.
"•:.;,:: ;4; ;:; ;r ;i
^ .
:
*.-•
A*"*
•<:.:
/'
• - *'*
^
.""- *&•"'*
Jil
;•;:;;;::
v^
'"•
J;
•
V^
\v^ '"-•A^
'••
•' ':
,.
••''
\.
..
'. ••
^v^
?:•• • ;
v-p
|!1 /"'
l
"'""" i-v
(r.^
'.'"'•'
\:>*'
*'-..-
x--v/
**~-s^'
^x/, •
f'.':'!!'!
:
1948
S £% •;
•':
^r
J^~^
tST
IS ^x'S? .;.
1951 1952
on
uw
—
-
70
60
503
;;;
*
—
40 1
-
^'V;>'.1
:-<;
;j;f;:"
! . • '•
.int..!.,
&
\ | |
''"'
20
U
30
:
Juf.llM
1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961
See "How to Reod the Time Series Charts," page 4.
8
«
6
'^
ili.Iiltn
1950
H
-N
f'ft
-•••• ' '0!
; !•-
1949
-
S
W^
•
5
.;,:;:;:-.::.•/•
19. Index of stock pric es
(1941-43=10)
^x**^^*111" v^si^y
':.//
8
;,,:.r.;^
?
%$£i.
,s\f
12
10
-
;.
,
1
-•: •=;..;
XV^"
-]
-
'Sfe^f I; /....-''
:_,.::;,:M::I;\ vj<'
-"'"•" __•_.._
J/'v"'" : "
r
ITj
v
I
I
:r:;;
' -. •;. .-:
90
.'-••""*"
§ji
,.
,
II
I
100 S
^£.,;:,,:
i
f
; .,, ;..,•.•;
4)
—
,
:¥IS
,'.":"
•\
18. Pr<>fits per dollar o f sales, mfg., Q
S,'::vS
;:...,.,;:
•
— 120
- no v
^^^^s,
'^1 :; : V
' "' '- ;,,
1
1
!:."•;;•• --1 1
.'.'.
' •./
^x "^—^ /N^
r^^
'" v • ^P;"
! '•'•• • .
H
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cc>St, mfg
(index, 1947-49=100)
;t:!
s i-;:v.
• «,::.
'
S^
s
- K;
-' ""
\
::^;:<;..;:'.
? '¥
:; ;;: ;
«v
—
ZJ
25 *
J
20 ^J
§
15
P
"
fiiJ
^••':, "!'
.'••
/A
— ••*%.-»<
;:
/
:^.v:
?i
|
1
;;•;:.•:;'•:
\s*\_
'. /"*
35
30
;;:
v .f
/J^ \
_
_
V
"^^
-I:-;':-
: :;: ;
;:-•;
E
;:i; :
, •;;,•:••
-- !^ %.
16. Corporate profits, all indus., Q^^- ::
'
(billions of dollars) ^A
/^•:K.:
•&WC3&
/"'A
r
'•':;
Si.
:
:
\
C'* .
1962
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
1948 TO PRESENT-Con.
NBER Leading Indicators-Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
-•
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
L --i^gpra. _i
—,
~ -•-"- •» ^
(July) (Apr.)
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
P
T
*
'•••••••.nL.J ----J-. - - - .
In •••*•••-'
[ Inventory investment, buying policy and sensitive prices |
,
i
T
i
+ 15
TT~p
+ 10
Change, inventories, all Indus., Q ,
/k;ll;««e -* J«M«»*\
i
/\
(billions of dollars)
11
*-—,
i
0
-5
31. Inventory change,
book value,
mfg. & trade
billions of
-t+12
"i
0
-6
20. Change, book value)
purch. mtls.
:
inventories, mfg.
(billions of dollars)
1
-12
*4
*2
0
V
-2 2
26. Buying policy,
prod. mtls. (NAPA)1
(percent reporting
/VL-v. 'N commitments 60 days or longerj;
^ V^ffi'f;
v^--: . .-:
XWU --,>-.::;:%•
e?'i
A
/
-4
75
50
;
ir^
"Sv.-^-.-.: j™
32. Vendor performance,
Chicago PAA
(percent reporting
slower deliveries)
£cr\
>Ki
<
*
25
i
75
/^
50
<
|
25
*3
*2
*1
0
-1
25. Change, unfilled orders, durables
(billions of dollars)
/I
/v~Sfc;
; > ;
' f -\-^\f\-AJ ^I^y^H
^t3^
<
A
j
3
160
23. Index of industrial materials prices
'1947-49=100)
m
140
120
fO
J
100
41
S
80
il.ilnl,
Mi
1955
1948
1949 1950 1951 1952 1953
1954
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.
1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961
1962
10
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
1948 TO PRESENT-Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
60
r-t
I Employment and unemployment j
41. Nonag. employment (establishments)
55
5
50
65
42. Nonag. employment (household)
(millions)
60 2
4)
55!
50
43* Unemployment rate,
total (inverted)
(percent)
3.0
4.0
5.0 <
6.0 1
7.0
8.0
40. Unemployment rate,
married males (inverted)
(percent)
2.0
3.0
5.0 1
6.0
7.0
45. Average week I y i i n sured
unemployment rate (inverted)
3.0
4.0
5.0 <
6.0 |
7.0
8.0
46. Help-wanted advertising
(index, 1957=100)
120
100 3
80 |
-1 60
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/ page 4.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
11
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
1948 TO PRESENT-Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators-Con.
<Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
120
47. Industrial production
(1957*100)
r
110
100
90
80
500
475
50. GNP, 1954 dollars, Q
(billions of dollars)
450
425
400
600
550
49. GNP, current dollars
(billions of dollars)
500
450 §
400
550
57. Final sales, Q
(billions of dollars)
500 ^
450 1
400
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952 1953
1954
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.
1955
1956 1957
1958
1959 1960
1961 1962
12
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
1948 TO PRESENT-Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators-Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
_
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
zo
ft fir
1.9
1.8
1.7
51. Banlc debits outside N.Y.C.
(trillions of dollars)
1.6 3
«i
U
1.3
450
425
52. Personal income
(billions of dollars)
4003
375 |
350
325
53.
120
115
110
105
100 **
Labor income, industrial •
(billions of dollars)
90
85
80
20
54. Sales of retail stores, total
(billions of dollars) Am
19
18 ^
17
16 2
15
14
110
55. Wholesale prices (excl. farm and food)
(index, 1957-59- TOO)
&?.-'
100 *j|
»i
80
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952 1953
1954
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
13
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
1948 TO PRESENT»Con.
NBER Lagging Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
I
nvestment expenditures
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
'
f.v.v, ••..!•
J
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
.
'61. New plant & equip, expenditures, Q
(billions of dollars)
40
30
JS
8
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfa.
(index. 1947-49=100)
20
125
Cost per unit of output | I
120
115
110
150
; 63. Labor cost per unit of output, total
(index, 1947-49=100)
140
130
120
64. Mfrs. inventories, total
(billions of dollars)
70
60
50
40
30
65. Mfrs. inventories, finished
(billions of dollars)
26
22
18
48
44
66. Consumer installment debt
(billions of dollars)
40
36
32
28
1
67. Bank rate, short-term business loons, Q
(percent)
S ^
Interest rates |
3
1948
1949
1950 1951 1952 1953
1954 1955
1956 1957 1958
„
Ji
$
8
24
5
S«e "How to Read th« Time Series Charts,* page 4.
Last 2 quart.fi ar« anticipated.
3
1
1959 1960
1961
1962
<
14
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
1948 TO PRESENT»Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
2.0
U
1.4
1.2
1.0
1.6
.8
+ 1.0
+.8
+.6
+.4
-K2
0
-.2
-.5
-1.0
-1.5
itlnlHl t J*tlulHll.Unlul..U.^
1948
1949 1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Rerad the Time Series Charts," page 4.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958 1959
1960
1961
1962
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
15
1948 TO PRESENT-Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance-Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
82. Payments to the public
(billions of dollars) ,J
Federal, budget and military obli
83. Receipts from the pubHc
(bill ions of dollars) .
84. Cash surplus or deficit
(billions of dollars)
--
?5. Surplus or deficit on
Federal income and product
account (billions of dollars)
90. Military obligations, procurement />
(bill ions of dollars)
91. Military obligations, total
(billions of dollars)
92. Military contract awards in U.S.
(billions of dollars)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
Solid lines indicate 3-month average; latest data for 3-month moving average plotted one month behind seasonally adjusted data.
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/ page 4.
16
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
1948 TO PRESENT-Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance-Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Moy)(Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
85. Change in money supply
(percent)
+.8
.4
.
-.4
'•
•
93. Free reserves
(billions of dollars)
+.6
+.4
+.2 <
-.6
120
no
81, Index of consumer prices
(1957-59-100)
100
Miscellaneous |
90
80
160
140
120
94. Construction contracts, total value
(index, 1957-59=100)
100
80
60
40
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.
195,5
1956 1957
1958
1959
1960
1961 1962
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
17
1948 TO PRESENT-Con.
International Comparisons of Industrial Production
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Industrial production indexes
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
no S
100
90
80
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
122. United Kingdom
ffl -; (1953=100)
130
120
110 .
100 J
90 |
80
70
130
120
47. United States
(1957*100)
110
s
100 -i
90 g
09
80
70
953
1954
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.
1962
Basic Data
18
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
1!U8 TO PRESENT»Con.
International Comparisons of Industrial Production-Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
L: .11
I
'
I
r
Industrial production indexes—con. 1
;;
125. West Germany
(1953=100)
128. Japan
(1955=100)
ITOIV
fc&^.
(1941=100) tJK
J 60
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
S*e "How to Read th« Time Series Charts/ page 4.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961 1962
19
Basic Data
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by ©
*.
and current highs are indicated by (TO ;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4> 5» 1 . 15» 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
4.
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and .Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" Revised, "p" Preliminary.
NBER Leading Indicators
Year and
month
1. Average
workweek,
production
workers ,
manufacturing
(Hours per
prod . wkr . )
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
30. Nonagricultural
placements,
all industries
3. Layoff
rate, manufacturing
(Per 100
employees )
4. Number of 5. Average
6. Value of
weekly initial manufacpersons on
temporary
claims for un- turers ' new
layoff, all
employment in- orders, durindustries
surance, State
able goods
programs
industries
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
December
(Thous . )
40.1
40.2
40.4
40.7
40.7
40.5
4.1
4.3
4.7
4.5
4.2
4.2
478
490
509
516
512
523
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.8
120
119
113
101
116
121
292
284
258
244
246
258
13*90
14.92
15.32
15.80
15.24
16.13
40.2
40.3
40.1
40.0
39.9
40.3
4.0
4.1
4.0
3.8
4-1
5.3
527
501
516
492
512
510
2.0
2.0
2.2
2.7
2.4
1.9
125
155
150
93
159
138
264
291
271
311
351
275
15.49
13.97
14.75
15.10
13.72
14.77
4.
04
40.1
39.9
39.8
40.1
39.9
4.3
4.1
3.8
3.7
3.9
3.7
506
535
513
504
494
482
1.6
1.9
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.6
122
110
116
156
160
145
281
271
303
294
316
322
14.19
14.80
14.64
14.47
14.68
14.34
39.9
39.6
39.4
39.5
39.3
©38.5
3.6
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
©3.3
460
488
473
460
475
44
4
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.3
2.6
2.9
177
154
153
166
128
179
335
363
351
373
385
381
13.84
14.41
14.62
13.74
13.60
13.22
39.0
39.3
39.3
39.7
39.8
39.9
1959
January.
(Per 100
employees),
4.0
3.8
iKt 4.6
4.4
4.2
3.9
443
44
4
474
©433
481
494
193
©220
215
137
151
147
393
© 429
371
370
357
331
© 12.88
13.36
13.82
14.38
14.80
14.92
40.0
40.0
39.6
40.2
IH} 4 .
06
40.4
4.0
41
.
3.7
4.4
4.0
3.8
470
529
491
530
565
526
m 1.7
1.8
2.1
99
138
123
111
111
123
351
315
329
307
307
305
15.03
15.65
15.76
16.08
16.13
16.24
39.8
40.3
P40.5
r4.4
P4.0
(NA)
568
548
0575
rl.9
pi. 8
(NA)
177
080
117
312
285
E273
*264
IS rl6.47
rl6.11
P15.47
(Thous . )
(Thous . )
(Bil. dol.)
I960
February
March
April
May
June
July
September
October
November
December
1961
March
April
May
July
September
October
November
December
2.9
© 2.9
2.3
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.5
1.9
2.2
1962
March
April
May
Hfeek ended April 7, 1962.
20
Basic Data
Table I.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk [ ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by QT] ;
*.
the reverse is ^rue for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" Revised, "p" Preliminary.
NBER Leading Indicators —Continued
24. Value of
nif rs . ' new
orders, machinery and
equipment
Industries
9. Constr.
contracts
awarded for
commercial
and indus .
buildings
(Bil. dol.)
Year and
month
(Mil. sq.ft.
floor space)
1959
January
February
March
April
May
Contracts
orders
plant
equipment
(Bil. dol.)
Revised1
4.46
4.73
4.97
4.80
4.85
5.11
31.93
32.16
35.11
41.92
38.55
34.19
5.16
4.85
5.02
5.12
4.99
5.37
37.64
34.14
38.38
41.44
36.03
39.44
37.32
36.93
36.73
38.73
39.25
40.31
5.57
5.69
5.61
5.72
5.78
5.58
4.78
4.96
4.87
© 4.65
4.81
4.66
38.87
39.38
38.96
39.44
39.44
38.15
5.39
5.58
5.51
©5.27
5.39
5.30
August
September
October
November
December
I960
January
March
April
May
July
August
September
October
November
December
1961
January
4.79
4.80
5.10
4.99
5.18
5.32
March
April
May
July
35.18
36.90
38.16 ;
©35.09
35.89
37.32
5.30
5.58
5.49
5.63
E5.79
5,48
„
„
(Bil. dol.)
5.72
5.25
5.62
5.73
5.58
5.92
5.04
5.14
5.06
5.12
5.17
5.01
11. Newly approved capital appropriations ,
602 mf g .
corporations
4.91
5.21
5.57
5.35
5.4C
5.66
July
September
October
November
December
1962"
January
February
March
April
May
June
10.
and
for
and
35.67
39.79
38.36
33.42
42.22
41.54
r5.78
r5.6l
P5.50
37.72
044.72
(NA)
5.52
5.50
5.64
5.51
5.74
5.94
5.33
6.16
5.97
6.17
E.6.45
6.04
6.31
p6.34 <
(NA)
"Important Features and Changes For This Issue," page ii.
2.16
2.36
2.46
2.51
2.27
2.02
© 1.79
2.19
1.87
1.90
2.21
IE" 2. 24
(NA)
27. Buying
policy, cap.
expend., pet.
reporting
commitments 6
mo. and over*
(Percent
reporting)
7. New private perm.
nonfarm
dwelling
units
started
(Ann. rate
Thous . )
29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized,
loc. bldg.
permits
(1957-59=100)
41
43
42
49
49
50
1,542
1,503
1,567
;,568
1,546
1,532
114.1
118.7
122.8
115.5
112.9
113.3
49
53
54
49
55
49
1,555
1,450
1,498
1,360
1,350
1,451
108.9
109.3
106.0
99.9
99.4
105.3
55
50
46
50
46
50
1,302
1,366
1,089
1,275
1,309
1,264
9^.3
97.9
88.1
95.1
95.9
88.5
45
47
43
39
38
©37
1,209
1,335
1,067
1,237
1,206
©987
91,6
87.3
87.4
89.9
91.4
©87.1
40
39
45
45
41
38
1,098
1,115
1,262
1,143
1,268
1,351
88.7
88.8
91.6
91.8
92.3
96.9
45
47
46
39
39
47
1,318
1,301
1,365
HD 1,404
1,328
1,257
97.7
100.4
96.8
102.6
101.9
110.7
41
(HI 47
44
r 1,247
rl,131
pl,383
1-104-2
[E)rll3.5
p0.
!48
21
Basic Data
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by ©
*.
and current highs are indicated by ' j
H
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). * Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover. M r n Revised, "p" Preliminary.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
1959
12. Net
change in
business
population,
operating
businesses
(Thous . )
+20
March
April
May
+20
July
September
December
I960
+20
+15
+20
March
April
May
+20
July
+15
October
©+5
1961
January
+10
April
May...
+15
July
September. .....
iS+15
November
+10
1962
January
February
March
ApriJL
May
(WA)
1
13. Number
of new
business
incorporations
14 . Current
liabilities
of business
failures
(Number)
(Mil. dol.)
15. Business 16. Corpor- 17. Price
ate profits per unit of
failures
with liaafter taxes labor cost
index
bilities of
$100,000 and
over
(Number per
week)
16,346
16,255
16,548
16,604
16,296
15,204
68.75
53.26
60.23
63.08
48.96
51.25
29
27
25
26
27
22
15,658
15,813
15,728
15,383
15,695
15,959
54.47
54.50
61.51
55.98
56.01
64.04
27
32
25
24
29
30
16,561
15,274
15,233
15,280
15,176
15,630
52.88
57.60
61.57
63.71
76.52
©131.31
29
27
29
28
32
36
15,828
15,114
15,112
15,240
14,281
14,167
71.04
94.66
86.02
85.98
80.44
82.78
40
35
43
©46
37
42
©13,492
14,601
14,658
15,327
15,225
15,342
80.16
84.45
111.36
79.07
84.09
87.05
38
42
40
39
41
41
15,539
15,213
15,419
[316,286
16,149
15,818
80.52
99.41
124.11
74.04
112.36
El 68.94
41
35
40
43
39
38
15,124
15,809
15,713
104.72
87.36
71.20
37
!EJ32
37
See "Important Features and Changes For This Issue," page ii.
April 16, 1962.
s
(Ann. rate .
Bil. dol.) (1947-49=100)
Revised1
102.8
103.7
23.4
103.3
105.1
106.1
26.1
105.4
22.7
22.7
24.2
23.3
21.7
21.4
© 20.0
22.8
23.8
026.5
(NA)
104.4
104.2
103.1
102.6
101.4
104.2
105.0
104.2
104.0
103.6
104.0
103.8
104.6
104.5
102.7
102.9
102.6
102.2
101.9
101.6
©101.2
102.0
103.2
103.3
104.7
0105.8
104.2
104.7
104.5
105.2
105.0
104.3
P103.7
18. Profits
(before taxes) per dol.
sales, all
mfg. corporations
19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks*
(Cents)
(1941-43=10)
8.9
9.8
8.4
8.1
8.8
8.0
7.8
7.3
©6.6
7.6
7.9
08.7
(NA)
55.62
54.77
56.15
57.10
57.96
57.46
59.74
59.40
57.05
57.00
57.23
59.06
58.03
55.78
55.02
55.73
55.22
57.26
55.84
56.51
54.81
©53.73
55.47
56.80
59.72
62.17
64.12
65.83
66.50
65.62
65.44
67.79
67.26
68.00
71.08
>E) 71.75
69.07
70.22
70.29
2
67.60
22
Basic Data
Toble 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by [TT1 :
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5t 14, 15> 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" Revised, "p" Preliminary.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
21. Change in
bus . inventories, farm
and nonfarm,
after val.
ad jmt .
(Ann. rate
Bil. dol.)
Year and
month
31. Change in
book value,
of rafg. and
trade inventories,
total
(Ann. rate
Bil. dol.)
20, Change in
book value of
mfrs. r inven*tories,
purchased
material
(Ann. rate
Bil. dol.)
26. Buying
32. Vendor
policy, pro- performance,
duct . matls . , percent
pet. report, reporting
slower
commitments
60 days plus* deliveries*
(Percent
(Percent
reporting)
reporting)
25. Change,
manufacturers
unfilled orders, durable
goods industries
23. Index of
industrial
materials
prices*
(Bil. dol.)
(1947-49-^100)
1959
February
March
Apr j 1
May.
+7.1
...,.
+11.7
July
August
September
October
+0.7
+5.6
December
I960
February
March
April
May
June
+10.9
+5.4
July
August
+2.4
October
-1.9
1961
January
February
March
April
May
©-4.0
+2.8
July
+4.5
September.
October
+5.3
December,
1962
February
March
April
May
June
Hp+7.5
,
,
l
April 16, 1962.
+3.5
+6.2
+6.6
+14.1
+8.7
+11.4
+2.4
+2.4
+3.3
+3.5
+4-1
+6.1
60
66
65
68
71
66
58
62
62
62
62
62
+0.70
+1.21
+0.86
+0.47
-0.17
+0.10
89.0
88.9
90.4
91.2
91.9
92.2
+6.4
-0.2
-5.1
+0.6
-2.5
+12.3
+0.3
-2.5
-5.2
-3.2
+0.5
+2.4
67
64
72
66
66
67
60
62
64
64
56
50
-0.13
+0.02
+0.45
+0.64
-0.05
-0.12
92.2
92.6
93.9
94.5
94-6
93.7
+12.8
+11.7
+11.4
+3.2
+8.5
+2.3
+4.6
+1.5
+0.8
+1.0
+0.4
-1.6
64
64
56
61
55
57
44
30
© 27
28
32
34
-0.52
-0.78
-0.77
-0.68
-0.19
-0.22
94.4
93.2
91.5
92.8
93.0
91.7
-1.5
+0.4
-0.6
+2.4
-2.1
-6.2
-1.4
-1.2
-3.2
-2.4
CD -3. 4
-0.4
54
50
49
50
50
CD 48
36
40
41
39
38
38
-0.24
-0.17
-0.13
©-0.77
-0.50
-0.43
90.8
91.3
90.4
89.0
88.0
©86.5
-5.8
-3.2
+4.1
+0.7
+0.4
-0.3
-1.0
+0.1
-0.1.
+0.8
-2.2
51
49
50
57
54
56
38
40
40
47
48
48
+0.01
-0.02
-0.11
+0.42
+0.23
+0.07
86.9
88.7
92,1
93.0
093.3
90.3
+4.5
+1.8
[HI +7. 8
+4.2
+6.1
+5.0
+1.1
+0.2
+3.0
+0.5
+0.9
+1.3
56
55
57
59
59
54
49
52
55
55
51
53
+0.49
+0.22
-0.03
+0.33
+0.25
+0.28
90.9
92.0
91.9
91.4
88.4
90.2
[S]r+5.0
P+2.3
(NA)
57
ES61
56
56
{356
55
{HJr+1.19
r+0.17
p-0.66
91.9
89.9
89.7
1
87.6
©-a. 7
r+7.4
p+6.7
(NA)
Basic Data
23
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
}yy an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by QD ;
*.
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). . Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" Revised, "p" Preliminary.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and
month
40. Unemployment
rate,
married
males1
41. Number
of employees
in nonagricultural
establishments
42. Total
nonagricultural employment,
labor force
survey
43. Unemployment
rs te , total
(Thous . )
(Thous.)
(Percent )
(Percent)
45 . Average 46. Index of 47. Index of
weekly in- help-wanted industrial
sured unem- advertising production
in newsployment
rate, State papers
programs
July
August
October
November
52,446
52,612
52,843
53,328
53,606
53,779
59,016
58,974
59,337
59,520
59,668
59,752
5.97
5.91
5.63
5.23
5.09
5.04
4.09
4.06
3.69
3.22
3.24
3.12
(Percent)
Revised1
4.94
4.66
4.32
3.95
3.62
3.53
53,879
53,357
53,413
53,353
53,622
54,116
60,108
60,103
59,925
60,225
59,741
60,465
5.15
5.32
5.56
5.72
5.77
5.41
3.28
3.39
3.68
3.70
4.24
3.36
54,211
54,445
54,427
54,702
54,584
54,538
1959
January
February
March
April
May
60,436
60,875
60,488
61,132
61,371
61,293
5.29
4.91
5.38
5.17
5.14
5.44
54,514
54,403
54,301
54,190
53,995
53,707
61,133
61,035
60,996
60,758
61,210
©60,635
53,581
©53,485
53,561
53,663
53,894
54,182
(1957=100)
(1957=100)
84.9
91.9
96.7
102.8
102.0
105.6
100.3
101.9
103.6
106.6
109.2
109.6
3.72
4.11
4-15
4.78
5.51
4.76
108.8
105.5
105.1
103.2
104.8
103.5
107.6
103.6
103.2
102.0
102.6
108.8
3.35
3.02
3.48
3.34
3.36
3.61
4.27
4.17
4-54
4.26
4.19
4.39
109.0
110.1
105.4
100.3
99.7
97.8
111.1
109.6
109.1
108.7
109.7
109.4
5.44
5.75
5.70
6.14
6.18
6.65
3.70
3.95
3.83
4.32
4.46
4-73
4.67
5.10
5.38
5.68
6.27
©6.33
90.1
89.4
82.6
84.6
82.2
©79.0
109.4
108.3
106.7
106.1
104.5
103.0
60,852
60,922
61,274
61,101
61,234
61,543
6.65
6.91
6.76
6.93
©7.02
6.86
4-72
©4.91
4.65
4.88
4.89
4.77
6.15
6.32
6.26
5.91
5.61
5.32
79.9
79.3
81.1
79.8
82.0
83.8
102.3
© 102.1
102.6
105.6
108.3
110.4
54,335
54,333
54,304
54,385
54,525
54,492
61,371
61,417
61,188
61,369
61,840
61,618
6.87
6.81
6.86
6.66
6.11
6.00
4.71
4.77
4.60
4.19
4.23
3.90
5.29
5.22
5.10
5.04
5.08
4.81
82.6
86.1
84.8
95.9
99.1
96.9
112.0
113.0
111.0
112.8
114.1
rl!4.8
r 54, 434
r 54, 778
[Hjp54,828
61,690
62,206
E62,280
5.82
5.58
5.45
3.80
03.40
3.47
4.71
4.52
E4.41
2
4.09
r!02.3
r!05.9
ER3106.3
rl!3.6
114.8
[H]P115.8
50. Gross
national
product in
1954 dollars
(Ann. rate
Bil. dol.)
422.1
434.4
426.6
430.7
I960
April
May
July
August
September
October. . . . . * » .
November
441.0
443.4
440.2
438.4
1961
February
March
April
May
July
AUfiTUS t
November
December
1962
January
February
March
Apri;L
May
June
1
See "Important Features and Changes For This Issue," page ii.
Week ended March 31, 1 6 .
9 2
2
©433.2
445.5
451.8
dD 464.6
(NA)
Basic Data
24
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by ©
and current highs are indicated by (E)j
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4j 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only arid do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" Revised, "p" Preliminary.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
49. Gross
national
product in
current
dollars
57. Final
sales
(series 49
minus 21)
(Ann. rate
Bil. dol.)
1959
January
February
March
April
May
(Ann. rate
Bil. dol.)
472.2
465.2
488.5
476.8
482.3
481.6
488.3
482.7
501.5
490.5
506.4
501.0
505.1
502.7
504.5
506.4
©500.8
©504.8
May
516.1
513.2
July
August
525.8
521.3
542.2
537.0
0p549.0
(SP541.5
July
September
November
51. Bank
debits outside NYC,
343 centers
52. Personal
income
54. Sales of
53. Labor
retail
income in
mining, mfg., stores
and construction
55. Index of
wholesale
prices except farm
products and
foods
(Ann. rate
Bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate
Bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1,577.3
1,609.4
1,627.7
1,656.1
1,638.3
1,639.2
371.7
373.9
378.4
381.9
384.9
386.9
99.9
100.7
103.3
105.1
106.7
107.6
17,455
17,575
17,914
17,953
18,222
18,189
100.4
1,685.6
1,658.6!
1,654.1
1,668.0
1,692.9
1,699.6
387.1
383.7
384.5
384.2
388.7
393.7
106.7
103.5
103.8
102.8
104.2
107.5
18,296
18,110
17,784
18,341
17,842
17,485
101.5
101.4
101.5
101.5
101.5
1,01 . 5
1,692.2
1,765.4
1,715.2
1,731.2
1,731.2
1,739.0
395.4
395.4
395.8
401.4
403.6
404.4
109.0
108.5
107.9
108.2
109.2
108.7
18,100
18,161
18,219
18,860
18,428
18,466
101.5
101.4
101.4
101.4
101.2
101.3
1,714.0
1,771.8
1,766.5
1,738.0
1,758.9
©1,742.3
404.7
405.2
405.5
406.4
406.0
440
0.
108.4
107.3
107.0
106.6
105.4
103.4
18,118
18,201
18,104
18,543
18,398
17,887
101.3
101.3
101.1
101.2
101.1
101.0
1,786.2
1,755.0
1,785,1
1,781.8
1,829,3
1,824 ,,0
403.6
©403.1
2
405.5
409.8
413.2
417.3
103.4
©102.8
103.7
106.3
107.7
109.9
©17,773
17,795
18,127
17,860
17,995
18,199
101.0
101.0
101.0
100.9
100.8
100,7
418.6
419.4
421.1
425.2
429.3
431.8
110.2
109.8
109.7
110.8
112.3
112.1
18,026
18,181
18,141
18,587
19,107
18,836
100.7
100.7
100.8
100.6
100.8
100.9
430.1
r433.3
|mp435 .3
110.8
rl!2.7
E-P113.2
r!8,845
r!9,063
[HjP19,290
100.8
100.6
©100.5
3
100.7
(Ann. rate
Bil. dol.)
(1957-59=100)
Revised1
100. a
101.0
101.2
101.5
101.4
I960
March
April
May
June
July
September
November
1961
February
March
April
October
December
1962*
January
February
March
April
May
June
1
1,839.9
1,832.7
1,848.2
1,904.6
1,903.8
1,916.9
02,010.7
r 1,916. 8
pi, 986. 9
2
See "Important Features and Changes For This Issue," page ii.
^Excludes stepped-up rate of payments and special payments of government life insurance dividends to veterans in
Marnh 1961 ($1.8 billion) and July 1961 ($2.6 billion), respectively.
3
Week ended April 10, 1962.
25
Basic Data
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( )
* . Low values preceding current highs are indicated by ©
and current highs are indicated by [H] J
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45).
Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" Revised, "p" Preliminary.
NBER Lagging Indicators
Year and
month
61. Business
expenditures
on new plant
and equipment, total
(Ann. rate
Bil. dol.)
62. Index of
wage and
salary cost
per unit of
output, total mfg.
(1947-49=100)
63. Index of
labor cost
per unit
of output,
total GNP
(1947-49=100)
64. Book
value of
mf rs . ' inventories,
all mfg.
industries
66. Consumer
65. Book
value , mf rs . ' installment
debt, end of
inventories
of finished
month
goods, all
mfg . indus .
(Mil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
49.5
49.9
50.5
51.1
51.6
52.1
18.8
19.1
19.2
19.3
19.4
19.3
33,391
33,763
34,171
34,609
35,064
35,558
52.2
52.1
51.9
51.5
51.6
52.4
19.3
19.4
19.6
19.6
19.7'
20.1
36,093
36,704
37,271
37,785
38,203
38,534
53.3
53.9
54.3
54.7
55.0
55.1
20.4
20.6
20.8
21.0
21.2
21.3
38,897
39,366
39,773
40,303
40,608
40,907
54.9
55.0
54.7
54.4
54.0
53.7
21.4
21.6
21.9
21.9
21.9
21.8
41,175
41,401
41,627
41,799
41,961
42,079
53.7
53.6
©53.3
53.4
53.4
53.4
21.8
21.8
21.7
21.7
21.5
21.5
42,070
41,993
41,980
41,873
41,885
41,885
53.5
54.0
54.4
54.8
55.0
55.2
©21.5
21.7
21.8
21.9
21.9
22.0
©41,857
41,901
41,887
42,068
42,368
42,632
55.7
[HJP56.2
(NA)
r22.1
[HJP22.1
(NA)
42,847
043,083
(NA)
67. Bank
rates on
short-term
business
loans , 19
cities*
(Percent)
1959
February
March
April
May
30.62
32.51
July
September
December
I960
33.35
33.58
35.15
March
April
May
36.30
July
35.90
September
October
November
35.50
121.7
120.8
121.4
119.6
118.6
119.3
120,4
120.5
122.0
122.3
123.7
120*3
119.6
120.5
120.8
121.3
120.9
121.2
120.4
120.4
122.3
122.5
122.8
123.1
135-5
136.4
139.1
138.7
139.1
140.4
142.1
141.9
4.51
4.87
5.27
5.36
5.34
5.35
4.97
4.99
1961
March
April
May
33.85
©33.50
July
September
December
1962
February
March
April
May
34.70
[335.40
^6.10
^6.60
Anticipated.
123; 7
124.0
124.1
123.0
121.3
120.9
119.3
©118.2
120.1
119.4
119.8
119.2
119.6
r 120.1
[H}pl20.4
142.7
©142.5
[3143.3
142.3
(NA)
4.97
©4.97
m 4.99
4.96
4.98
26
Basic Data
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SEfRIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*^). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by IH"| •
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3> 4* 5» Hi 15> 40, 43, 45)- • Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" Revised, "p" Preliminary.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance
86. Exports, 87. General
exsluding
imports,
military aid total
shipments,
total
Year and
month
88. Merchandise trade
balance
(series 86
minus 87)
89. Excess, 82. Federal
receipts (+) cash payor payments ments to
(-) in U.S. the public
balance of
payments
(Mil, dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil., dol.)
1959
January
February
March
April
May
1,318.5
1,292.1
1,300.9
1,296.8
1,326.6
1,345.9
1,164.6
1,194.5
1,213.5
1,210.3
1,312.9
1,311.7
+153.9
+97.6
+87.4
+86.5
+13.7
+34.2
1,394.6
1,429.2
1,498.8
1,335.2
1,380.7
1,497.2
1,251.1
1,298.3
1,407.9
1,200.5
1,298.6
1,333.2
+143.5
+130.9
+90.9
+134.7
+82.1
+164.0
1,561.3
1,565.7
1,518.1
1,622.2
1,659.3
1,633.8
1, 246.3
*1, 348.0
^1,289.8
^1,348.6
fl, 269.0
2
1,276.5
^+315.0
^+217.7
+228.3
S
+273.6
2+390.3
2
+357.3
1,706.5
1,624.8
1,647.2
1,667.6
1,680.6
1,645.3
s
2
s
l,255.8
2
1,220.6
2
2
+369.0
2
+426.6
2
2
1,161.7
2
2
+518.9
2
1,646.1
1,736.4
1,711.1
1,658.3
1,577.0
1,594.9
1,150.9
1,146.1
1,158.4
1,159.0
1,155.2
1,177.2
+495.2
+590.3
+552.7
+499.3
+421.8
+417.7
July
1,668.0
August
1,659.7
September. . . . . .
1,667.8
October
1,772.9
1,716.3
December
1,719.2
1962
1,660.0
February
1,828.2
March
(NA)
April
May
June
1,366.4
1,261.3
1,280.3
1,322.4
1,310.7
1,296.5
+301.6
+398.4
+387.5
+450.5
+405.6
+422.7
1,320.1
1,314.1
(NA)
+339.9
+5H.1
(NA)
July
August
October
December
I960
February. ......
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October. ,,*,,,.
December
1961
January
March
April
May
^Excludes
^Revised.
^Includes
Includes
2
l,270.7
1, 206.0
l,124-8
-841
1
-1,061
-1,173
-668
-620
-763
+435.8
+46l.6
-1,112
3
-l,434
+520.5
-344
4
+156
-777
-1,489
(NA)
83. Federal 84. Federal 95. Surplus(+)
-,
cash surplus or deficit ( )
cash receipts from or deficit Federal income and
the public
product
account
(Ann. rate
(Ann. rate
Bil. dol.) Bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate
(Ann. rate
Bil. dol.) Bil. dol.)
100.0
96.0
92.7
96.4
95.1
96.2
81.5
84.9
76.8
87.2
86.0
81.2
-18.5
-11.1
-15.9
-9.2
-9.1
-15.0
97.0
96.2
93.2
92.9
99.9
91.2
89.4
92.4
95.7
88.3
96.6
98.8
-7.6
-3.8
+2.5
-4.6
-3.3
+7.6
89.9
97.8
91.9
94.9
94-4
91.9
89.9
96.6
94-2
99.8
102.9
94.8
0.0
-1.2
+2.3
+4.9
+8.5
+2.9
91.5
97.4
95.0
92.7
102.3
96.0
93.6
104.0
100.5
91.7
103.3
100.4
+2.1
+6.6
+5.5
-1.0
+1.0
+4.4
96.8
95.4
107.2
rlOO.7
rllO.9
105.4
93.1
93.2
89.1
r98.0
r!02.2
r95.3
-3.7
-2.2
-18.1
r-2.7
r-8.7
r-10.1
•97.5
114.0
101.8
111.1
107.3
103.8
90.3
104.0
100.8
99.1
103.9
102.8
-7.2
-10.0
-1.0
-12.0
-3.4
-1.0
116.1
r0.
!87
p!08.0
100.0
r99.9
P94.2
-16.1
r-8.8
P-13.8
U.S. subscription to International Monetary Fund of $1,375 million in gold and securities.
New figures from source include uranium imports.
single direct investment transactions of $370 million.
$6^0 million in special debt payments to the United States.
-2.7
+0.5
-2.5
-2.4
+6.5
+4.5
+1.4
+0.4
-5.5
-4.3
-3.1
-2.0
(NA)
Basic Data
27
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (
*.
D and current highs are indicated by [H] j
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" Revised, "p" Preliminary.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance — Continued
92. Military
prime contract awards
to U.S. business firms
90. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
91. Defense
Department
obligations,
total
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1,330
1,362
1,371
1,398
1,381
1,425
3,538
3,601
3,739
3,620
3,569
3 5 863
1,465
1,916
1,772
1,762
1,513
1,905
+0.28
+0.28
+0.28
+O.H
+0.28
+0.14
-60
-48
-140
-259
-319
-513
101.0
101.0
100.9
101.0
101.2
101.4
98
95
110
118
103
114
1,202
870
1,319
1,517
1,124
929
3,729
3,263
3,906
3,802
3,608
3,160
2,249
1,986
1,931
2,123
2,289
1,320
+0.35
-0.35
0.00
-0.28
-0.14
-0.49
-557
-535
-493
-459
-433
-424
101.6
101.7
101.9
102.2
102.2
102.3
115
102
106
110
92
97
937
1,104
1,020
983
1,373
r 1,269
3,234
3,439
3,368
3,362
3,677
r3,771
1,770
1,740
1,738
1,368
1,811
1,687
-0.14
-0.21
-0.28
-0.07
-0.43
-0.36
-361
-361
-219
-194
-33
+41
102.3
102.5
102.6
102.9
103,0
103.1
93
93
100
105
97
108
2,866
1,230
1,206
998
1,559
1,239
5.305
3,824
3,926
3,299
4,109
3,671
2,231
2,302
2,361
1,477
2,127
1,797
+0.14
+0.07
+0.50
+0.14
-0.28
+0.14
+120
+247
+4H
+489
+614
+682
103.1
103.3
103.2
103.5
103.6
103.8
113
109
107
117
111
120
1,306
1,476
1,163
1,089
1,117
rl,238
Year and
month
3,621
3,976
3,552
3,449
3.600
r3,723
1,944
2,153
1,774
1,882
1,501
1,888
+0.14
+0.43
+0.21
+0.35
0.00
+0.07
+696
+517
r+486
r+551
+453
+549
103.9
104.0
104.1
103.9
104.0
104.0
108
95
104
103
102
111
1,671
2,237
1,864
1,436
1,372
1,891
4,3U
5,344
4,785
4,191
4,121
4,681
2,066
2,389
2,127
2,847
2,500
2,153
-0.07
-0.14
+0.85
+0.49
+0.28
+0.56
+530
+537
r+547
+442
r+517
r+419
104.3
104.4
104.5
104.4
104.4
104.4
110
116
103
114
116
119
1,912
1,147
(NA)
449
,4
3,899
(NA)
3,429
(NA)
, -0.21
r-0.14
p+0.14
+546
r+434
P+376
104.6
104.9
115
119
(NA)
1959
January
March
April
May
July
August
October
November
85. Percent
change in
total U.S.
money supply
(Percent)
93. Free
reserves*
(Mil. dol.)
81. Index of
consumer
prices
94. Index of
construction
contracts,
total value
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
I960
February
March
April
May
July
September
October
1961
March
April
May
July
August
1962
Mareh. . . . . .
....
April
May
(NA)
Basic Data
28
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk ( ) Low values preceding current highs are indicated by ©
*.
and current highs are indicated by SD ;
the reverse is time for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5> 14, 15, 4.0, 43, 45). • Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" Revised, "p" Preliminary.
International comparisons of industrial production
1
1959
January
March
April
May
July
August
September
October
November. ..*,..
121. OECD
countries,
index of
industrial
production
122. United 123. Canada,
Kingdom,
index of
industrial
index of
industrial
production
production
(1953=100)
Year and
month
(1953-100) (1957=100)
47. United
States,
index of
industrial
production
(1957=100)
125. West
Germany,
index of
industrial
production
126. France,
index of
industrial
production
127. Italy,
index of
industrial
production
128. Japan,
index of
industrial
production
(1953=100)
(1953=100)
(1953=100)
(195 5=100)
151
149
148
15/
152
152
156
157
15Q
1 5/
134
136
139
139
139
141
115
115
117
118
118
120
104
105
105
108
107
108
100
102
104
107
109
110
158
158
141
143
145
147
150
153
121
122
124
126
126
128
107
106
108
110
108
108
10A
103
102
103
161
164
167
170
1 OQ
-i oQ
1 75
151
1 52
155
128
128
111
111
1 73
15ft.
160
1 AQ
159
15A
160
1 A3
168
1 75
154
153
1 5/
157
1 60
162
168
173
1 ZO
178
1 ^1
158
161
181
184
188
1^5
1 QP
171
1QA
1 7^
9O9
1960
February
March
Ap-r-ii
May
i *;/
155
1 57
July
156
August
September
October. . . . .
...
157
158
158
159
160
December
1961
January
February
April
r!59
162
163
162
May
rl6l
16/
July
September
October
November
December
1962,
162
163
162
rl64
16^
365
(m }
February
March. . . . . ,
..
April
May
June
1
12Q
1 31
131
1 30
130
131
131
129
131
r2
!7
r!29
r!2Q
r!30
r2
!9
110
111
108
108
108
127
-i Qi
1 0
^
/MA ^
(NA)
1 7D
1 AA
1^7
1 7A
1 90
1 ft/
106
107
108
108
107
107
i no
108
107
106
104
178
180
184
182
177
103
186
107
107
102
nq-a
1 no
1 Q9
1 £7
1 OQ
i OQ
1 £5
-i no
-] O7
1 1 r>
*;J4
180
i ft?
i #i
1 ft?
186
1 ft5
1 ft/
1 ftft
1 ftft
1 7Q
1 TO
1 Qfl
1 Qr-f
Q/ ft
9 / ft
1 SO
i ftn
i An
197
1 d:y
154
i fty
184
•I Qrt
iys
277
197
•nom
282
1 1q
1 Q/
i ft*;
lep
i sift
1 1i
11 4
115
1 QO
iy*c
-1 Q/^
iyu
1 QO
•1 ^
7
115
-I -i S
lib
257
9 en
25 /
183
1ftA
1 4
1
•\ -\ r
0 ./ C
T tJ^
i on
iyu
Tne
ii?
n/ q
<4J
iy<d
1 "I Q
fMA ^;
^RH,
9^5
£J>J
1 QO
119
11 A
iy /
.
995
4
O
99Q
oo/
1 QC
1V5
111
116
OAC
Oil
91 9
Q1 ft
91 ft
2O9
i do
i iq
1 1/
iJo
1 ftO
1 7Q
1 ftl
1 /4
l7y
1 0?
1 O?
1 OA
1 79
i AQ
110
1 ACi
Organi?Jation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
i OQ
1 OQ
1 7y
177
1 OQ
rl 3?
r3
!3
1 3^
r!2Q
1 ?7
1 ?ft
tin
196
200
/WA \
(m)
r"2nr7
91 ?
91 /
^14
193
/UTA >
(NA)
/•IT. \
(NA)
r-./ /
2oo
271
Qrt i
284
290
294
r294
295
(NA)
Analytical Measures
29
Table 2.-PERCENTAGE CHANGES FOR PRINCIPAL MONTHLY AND QUARTERLY SERIES OVER 1-YEAR PERIOD
Those series that usually fall when general business activity rises and rise when business falls, are inverted so that
rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 5, 14, 4-0, 43, and 45). The month-to-month percentage
changes are calculated in the usual way, but the signs are reversed to facilitate interpretations of the cyclical
movements; for example, if the rate decreased by 0.6 percent, the sign of this drop is reversed and shown as 40.6.
Monthly percent changes
1961
1962
Selected monthly series
Apr.
to
May
May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar.
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
June July Aug. Sept .Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.1
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
30.
5.
6.
24.
9.
+0.3
-4.5
Nonagri cultural placements, all industries.. +11.1
-5.3
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (inverted).. +3.5
Value of manufacturers1 new orders, durable
+2.9
Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin+3.8
.Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space.... +2.3
+0.3
-7.1
+2.7
-10,0
0.0 -1.0 +1.5
+0.2
+2.6 +2.5 -9.8 +18.9
-4-9 +12.6 -7.2 +7.9
-13.6 +24.0 -15.8 +22.7
+7.3
-6.0 +10.3
+0.8
+0.7
+2.7
+1.0 -0.5 -1.5
-9.1 -5.0 +15.8
+6.6 -6.9 +8.0
-5.9 -16.7 +9.5
+1.3 +0.5
NA
-9.1
-3.5 +4.9
NA
+5.3
0.0 +0.7
-2.3 +8.7
+4.2
+0.3
+0.7
+1.4 -2.2
-4.0
+2.8
-5.4 +5.5 -2.9
-2.0
-9.2 +18.6
NA
-4.4
+6.7
+4.1 +0.7
+2.0
-0.4 +5.3
-1.6
+2.6
+4.0
-4.4 +11.6
-3.6 -12.9 +26.3 -1.6
+6.5
-2.4
+3.3
7. New private permanent nonfarm dwelling
+10.9
-1.3 +4.9
+2.9
-5.4 -5.3
-0.8
-9.3 +22.3
29. Index of new private housing units author-
+0.5 +5.0 +0.8
-0.7 +0.8 +1.3
+2.8 -3.6 +6.0
-2.1 +1.4 +5.6
-0.7
-0.8
+8.6
-2.0
-5.9 +8.9
-4.4 +4.5
-7.7
-0.6
14. Current liabilities of business failures
-6.3
+1.2
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks.... +1.0
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
+2.1
+0.3
23 Index of industrial materials prices
-3.5 +7.5 -23.5 -24.8 +40.3 -51.8 +38.6 -51.9 +16.6 +18.5
+0.1 +1.4 +1.0 -1.5 +0.5 -0.2 +0.7 -0.2 -0.7 -0.6
-1.3 -0.3 +3.6 -0.8 +1.1 +4.5 +0.9 -3.7 +1.7 +0.1
0.0 +2.1
3.2 +0.7
+6.1
+1.2
+5.8
-0.1
0.0 -7.3 +3.9
-0.5 -3.3 +2.0
+5.7
+1.9
0.0 -1.8
-2.2 -0.2
-3.8
-2.3
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
+0.4
0.0 -0.1
+0.1
+0.3 -0.1
-0.1
+0.6
+0.1
+0.5 -0.3 +0.1 -0.4
+2.3 -0.1 +0.9 -0.7
+2.5 +1.3 -1.3 +3.6
+0.3
+2.9
+8.9
+0.8 -0.4
+8.3 +1.8
-1.0 +7.8
+0.1 +0.8
+3.0 +4.1
+2.6 +10.5
+0.1
+2.3
-2.1
+5.2 +0.6
+1.3
+1.2
-0.8
+5.3 +2.1
+4.0
+2.4
+2.2
+1.9
-0.3
+1.0
+4.2
+0.9
-0.4
+0.2
+13.1
+1.6
+3.1
+1.0
+3.3
+1.2
0.0
+1.0
-2.2 +5.6 +3.5 +0.4
+0.6 -1.0 +1.1 +0.9
+0.7 +4.9 -4.7 +3.7
+0.6 -0.4 +0.7 +0.5
+0.5
+0.3
42. Total nonagri cultural employment, labor
+0.2
-1.3
40. Unemployment rate, married males, (inverted) -0.2
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate,
State programs (inverted)
+5.1
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in news+2.8
+2.6
51 Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers...
+2.7
+0.8
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and
-1.4
+1.4
+0.9
+0.3
+2.3
-1.5
-1.8
+0.8
+0.4
-0.1 +1.0 +1.4
-0.2 +2.5 +2.8
-0.2
-1.4
-1.2 +1.7
0.0 +1.2
+0.4
+1.2
0.0 +0.1
-0.2
+0.2
+0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.9
+1.6
-0.6
+0.3
-0.5 +0.3
+0.4
+0.2
0.0 +0.2 +0.9
+0.7
+0.7
+0.4
+0.4
+0.9
+0.9
NA
0.0 0.0 +0.9
0.0 -0.1 +0.1
+0.5 +0.5- 0.0 +0.5
0.0 +0.4 +0.7 +0.6
+7.3
+1.3 +2,0 +0.3
-0.4
-1.0 +0.9
+0.8
+1.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-1.4
-0.3
-1.3
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
62. Index of wage and salary cost per unit of
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories,
0.0
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of
finished goods, all manufacturing indus.... -0.9
6fet Consumer inptallmp.nt ri^ht, pnd of month
0.0
See footnote at end of table.
0.0
+0.5
+0.5 +0.6
NA
NA
+0.2
30
Analytical Measures
Tobte 2-PERCENT AGE CHANGES FOR PRINCIPAL MONTHLY AND QUARTERLY SERIES OVER 1-YEAR PERIOD-Continued
Those series that usually fall when general business activity rises and rise when business falls, are inverted so that
rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 5, 14, 40, 43, and 45). The month-to-month percentage
changes are calculated in the usual way, but the signs a.re reversed to facilitate interpretations of the cyclical
movements; for example, if the rate decreased by 0.6 percent, the sign of this drop is reversed and shown as +0.6.
Monthly percent changes
1962
1961
Selected monthly series
Apr. May June July Aug . Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan . Feb . Mar .
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to to
to
May June July Aug . Sept . Oct. Nov . Dec . Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.1
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments,
total
„
87 . General imports , total
-4.9
-0.3
*-10.1
+4.3
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement. +2.6
+0.1
+1.1
+1.9
-5.0
-6.8
+10.8
0.0
+4.6
+16.1
-7.5
-5.2
+35.0
+0.3
-0.5
-7.7
+16.9
H5.2
+33.9
+0.1
+0.5
+1.5
-10.7
-3.1
-16.7
+0.1
+6.3
+3.3
+9.1
-1.7
-23.0
-0.1
NA
-3.2 +0.2 -3.4 +10.1
NA
-0.9 -1.1 +1.8 -0.5
-3.4 -3.3 +11.8 -6.4 -0.6
+4.8 -1.1 -2.7 -0.1 -5.7
NA
-4.5 +37.8 +1.1 -40.0
0.0 0.0 +0.2 +0.3
NA
Quarterly percent changes
Selected quarterly series
1st quarter 1961 2nd quarter 1961 3rd quarter 1961 4th quarter 1961
to
to
to
to
2nd quarter 1961 3rd quarter 1961 4th quarter 1961 1st quarter 1962
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11. Newly approved capital appropriations,
+1.6
+16.3
+1.4
NA
12. Net change in the business population,
16. Corporate profits after taxes
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales,
all manufacturing corporations
+30.0
+14.0
0.0
+4.4
-33.3
+11.3
NA
NA
+15.2
+3.9
+10.1
NA
+2.8
+3.1
+1.7
+1.4
+1.9
+1.6
+2.8
+3.1
+3.0
NA
+1.3
+0.8
-1.0
+3.6
+2.0
+2.0
-0.1
+0.6
-0.7
NA
0.0
+0.4
-0.6
+0.4
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIIBNT INDICATORS
50. Gross n&tionaj product in 1954- dollars
49* Gross national product in current dollars...
57. Final sales (sieries 49 minus series 21)
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total®
63. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
total gross national product
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities
• a r c to April percentage changes cover part of April only.
Percent change from 4th quarter 1961 to 1st quarter 1962 is based on anticipated 1962 data. Percent change from 1st
quarter : to 2nd quarter, 1962, based on anticipated data, is +1.4
8
Analytical Measures
31
Table 3.-D1STRIBUTION OF HIGHS IN BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS DURING RECENT MONTHS OF THE CURRENT EXPANSION
Number of series that reached a high before specified month of current expansion
Month in which high
was reached
Aug. 1961
(6th mo.)
Sept. 1961 Oct. 1961
(7th mo.) (8th mo.)
Nov. 1961 Dec. 1961 Jan. 1962 Feb. 1962 Mar. 1962
(9th mo.) (10th mo.) (llth mo.) (12th mo.) (13th mo.)
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1
2
X
July
August
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
5
13
April
May.
3
11
5
2
3
2
13
2
2
2
5
9
2
1
2
3
6
6
1
1
1
2
5
5
1
1
2
3
2
1
October
November
December
5
4
7
0
22
0
22
0
22
5
5
"4
2
1
4
1
8
1
11
1
11
January 1962
March
0
22
0
22
0
22
2
2
2
3
3
0
22
2
5
2
1
3
5
Total series used
1
2
2
1
0
^
6
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
March ,
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
"a
2
8
December
January 1962
Total series used. . . . .
Expansion period
.
1
11
1
11
i
11
1
11
1
11
1
9
1
11
Percent of series reaching their highs in corresponding months of 1961 and
previous expansions
(6th mo.)
(7th mo.)
(8th mo.)
(9th mo.)
(10th mo.) (llth mo.) (12th mo.) (13th mo.)
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
59
77
57
60
23
73
62
90
59
36
29
45
41
59
43
70
27
64
24
85
23
64
33
30
32
68
48
20
12
45
. 52
25
19611958-60
45
82
91
91
73
73
91
91
73
73
100
100
45
91
1954-57
1949-53
27
91
82
91
36
100
91
73
73
100
91
82
82
82
82
55
19611958-60
1954-57
1949-53
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
91
91
NOTE: All quarterly series, 2 leading monthly series (series 7 and 15), and 1 roughly coincident monthly series
(series 40) are omitted.
lumber of series available.
32
Analytical Measures
Table 4.-DISTRIBUTION OF HIGHS IN BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS DURING RECENT MONTHS COMPARED WITH PERIODS AROUND
PREVIOUS BUSINESS CYCLE PEAKS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark dates—
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was reached
3d mo. before business cycle peak
Business cycle peak
Nov.
1948
July
1953
July
1957
Kay
I960
Aug*.
1948
Apr.
1953
Apr.
1957
Feb.
I960
Current expansion
Feb.
1962
Mar.
1962
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8
7
6
5
months or more
months.
months.
months
11
1
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month.... „
Number of series used
11
1
2
2
22
12
1
2
1
5
4
3
4
1
3
1
1
5
1
1
18
21
6
18
0
Percent of series high on
benchmark date
23
19
19
1
1
1
2
3
2
2
1
2
1
21
23
2
2
2
5
2
18
22
16
32
2
2
3
2
4
7
12
10
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8
7
6
5
months or more
months.
months.
months.
4 months.
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on
benchmark date
Includes 1 series with no high.
4
4
2
3
1
1
2
1
4
1
1
'
4
5
1
5
10
1
10
3
7
1
1
1
4
14.
14
14
14
14
14
13
7
36
36
71
71
50
31
29
1
'*9
^
1
73
82
Analytical Measures
33
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading I ndicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Dl. Average workweek, mfg
(21 industries)
Percentage
Expanding
1100
50
D6. New orders, durables
(21 industries)
DTI. Capital Appropriations, mfg.
15 industries, One-Quarter
--'--*— 602 companies, Four-Quarter
,. ::^;'D33. Profits, Chicago PAA
(200 companies)
Percent reporting higher prpfits
D34. Profits, mfg. FNCB of N. Y.
(600 companies)
[One-Quarter!
Percent reporting higher profits'
D19. Stock Prices
82 industries)
023, Industrial Materials Prices
13 industrial materials)
I Three-Month I
D5. Initial Claims Unempl. Insur. JThree-MonthI
inverted (47 areas)
1948
1949
1950 1951 1952 1953 1954
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961 1962
34
Analytical Measures
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT-Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
T
; 'I One-Month Intervals
D41. Nonagricultural Employment t : /vl
(30 industries)
D47. Industrial Production
(25 industries)
DS8. Wholesale Prices, mfg. goods [
(23 industries)
;
^ |Three-Mon'th Interval s|i '•;:
—
D54. Sales of Retail Stores
(24 types of stores)
I,.It.I.. ..l,,t.,U, ..L.l.,1
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
$•* "How to Read th* Time Sert»» Charts," page 4.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961 1962
Percentage
Expanding
35
Analytical Measures
DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED: 1948 TO PRESENT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Percentage
Expanding
——— Actual
Anticipated
Change in total carloadings
D35.
Net talet, all manufacturers, 800 companies
"I 100
50
D36. New orders, durable feeds manufacturers, 400 companies
100
50
0
D48. Conceding*, 19 manufactured commodity groups*
100
50
D61. New plant and e«uiem«nt expenditures* 17-22 industries
100
50
1962
Data ere centered within span covered. Latest data are as follows:
Period covered
Series number
Actual
035 D36. * • • • . . •
D48
D6U.
•
Anticipated
4th Q 1960 - 4th Q 1961
2nd Q 1960 - 2nd Q 1961
3rd Q 1961- 4th Q 1961
2nd Q 1961 - 2nd Q 1962
2nd Q 1961 - 2nd Q 1962
1 st Q 1962- 2nd Q 1962
*|ncreose of 500,000 carloadings ploned at 100; no change at 50; decrease of 500,000 cor load ings at 0.
Analytical Measures
36
Table 5.--DIFRJSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) OVER SPECIFIED INTERVALS FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES:
OCTOBER 1958 TO PRESENT
Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are centered on the
middle month; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in 1st month of 2d
quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted directly. Table 7 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown.
NlffiR Leading Indexes
Dl. Average workweek,
manufacturing
(21 industries)
Year and
month
1-month
interval
3-month
interval
D6. Value of manufacturers1
new orders, durable goods
industries (21 industries)
1-month
interval
3 -month
interval
Dll. Newly approved
capital appropriations
a. 602 com- b. 15 industries
panies
1-quarter
4-quarter
interval
interval
D33. Profits „
Chicago PAA
(200
companies)
1-month
interval
1958
42.9
81.0
50.0
92.9
83.3
85.7
66.7
47.6
52.4
71.4
66.7
64.3
66.7
73.8
73.8
81.0
45.2
28.6
40.5
31.0
26.2
52.4
52.4
78.6
83.3
81.0
92.9
90.5
73.8
26.2
14.3
21.4
31.0
47.6
69.0
50.0
61.9
73. <*
85.7
52.4
40. !>
71.4
52.4
9.5
76.2
52.4
42.9
85.7
71.4
100.0
90.5
76.2
42.9
57.1
31.0
33*3
42.9
57.1
66.7
52.4
21.4
19.0
35.7
38.1
78.6
19.0
40.5
26.2
19.0
78.6
16.7
7.1
31.0
7.1
21.4
66.7
54.8
69.0
16.7
14.3
23.8
9.5
2.4
14.3
28.6
61.9
1..
43
57.1
54.8
28.6
38.1
71.4
33.3
28.6
61.9
28.6
57.1
28.6
47.6
42.9
50.0
28.6
52.4
38.1
52.4
26.2
35.7
42.9
85.7
78.6
69.0
83.3
50.0
90.5
40.5
42.9
38.1
69.0
78.6
38.1
54.8
95.2
90.5
81.0
92.9
69.0
78.6
45.2
78.6
81.0
81.0
r21.4
52.4
47,6
78,6
52.4
59.5
57*1
59,5
73 ,,8
57 ,,1
57,1
57 a
28,6
33.3
90.5
76.2
81.0
61.9
66.7
76.2
66.7
61.9
61,9
42.9
r47.6>
11.9
r78.6
p69.0
r21.4
P45.2
r71.4
f47,6
P47..6
r47.6
P61.9
November
December
1959
February
March
April
May
**
July
August • .. * ........
September . .
November* **
6.
00
44
51
42
66.7
48
52
50
56
58
56
54
50
42
40
44
48
67
61
66.7
58
73.3
52
33.3
43
1960
February
March
April
May
July
August
,
September
October
November
40.0
41
46.7
39
33.3
37
50.0
45
46
36
40
44
42
U
39
34
34
34
28
30
1961
February
March
April
May
June
July.
August
September
»*
December
1962
January
March
April
May
"r" Revised.
p" Preliminary.
11
46.7
51
60.0
52
63.3
(NA)
53.3
27
31
37
46
50
48
42
51
50
47
50
44
48
49
50
Analytical Measures
37
Table 5.-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) OVER SPECIFIED INTERVALS FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES:
OCTOBER 1958 TO PRESENT-Continued
Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are centered on the
middle month; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in 1st month of 2d
quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted directly. Table 7 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown.
NBER Leading Indexes — Continued
Year and
month
D34. Profits,
FNCB (600
mfg. corps.)
D19. Index of stock prices,
500 common stocks
(82 industries)1
1-month
interval
1-quarter
interval
3-month
interval
D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month
interval
3 -month
interval
D5. Av. weekly initial claims
for unemployment insurance,
State programs (47 areas)
1-month
interval
3-month
interval
1958
November
December
55
80.8
87.2
79.7
91.9
94.2
93.0
86.0
65.1
BO. 8
54.1
35.3
55.2
81.4
42.4
10.5
53.5
57.0
73.2
69.2
88.5
34.6
69.2
69.2
53.8
76.6
63.8
34.0
89.4
74.5
87.2
86.0
85.5
77-9
70.9
51.2
68.0
66.3
36.0
20.9
26.2
64.0
57.0
50.0
50.0
73.1
50.0
53.8
61.5
50.0
57.7
61.5
53.8
53.8
57.7
53.8
46.2
57.7
73.1
61.5
53.8
57.7
53.8
57.7
53.8
57.7
46.2
91.5
55.3
63.8
83.0
36.2
30.9
45.7
29.8
50.0
17.0
51.1
91.5
80.9
89.4
83.0
87.2
63.8
40.4
25.5
23.4
6.4
17.0
53.2
83.0
28.5
11.2
33.5
52.4
36.5
75.9
32.9
76.5
15.3
23.5
89.4
80.7
27.1
11.8
27.6
41.2
52.4
50.6
63.5
38.8
36.5
42.4
76.5
93.8
69.2
42.3
46.2
53.8
50.0
57.7
46.2
46.2
42.3
23.1
46.2
26.9
53.8
53.8
46.2
46.2
50.0
46.2
38.5
57.7
34.6
42.3
15.4
30.8
44.7
67.9
29.8
55.3
38.3
44.7
55.3
17.0
60.0
40.4
46.8
48.9
83.3
40.5
40.5
27.7
42.6
38.3.
21.3
33.3
20.0
48.9
30.9
54.3
87.0
96.3
86.0
72.6
81,1
40.2
42.1
81. 1
39.6
45.7
87.8
56.1
96.3
96.3
95.1
93.9
70.7
57.3
57.9
54.9
55.5
62.2
72.6
52.4
38.5
69.2
80.8
.65.4
53.8
46.2
50.0
76.9
53.8
38.5
30.8
65-4
46.2
76.9
73.1
80.8
57.7
50.0
53.8
69.2
69.2
42.3
46.2
57.7
60.6
46.8
70.2
52.1
42,6
55.3
46.8
44.7
46.8
72.3
70.2
25.5
53.2
68.1
61.7
66.0
61.7
51.1
55.3
40.4
60.6
76.6
59.6
53.2
26.2
74.4
48.2
39.6
37.8
73.1
34.6
46.2
2
46.2
61.5
53.8
2
42.3
68.1
85.1
34.0
73.4
87.2
1959
January
55
March
April
May
72
July
46
August
45
December. ,
I960
49
April
May
June.
49
July
August
43
October
44
1961
January
February.
March
April.
May
44
69
56
July
September
53
December
1962
(NA)
March
April
May
'•The diffusion index is based on 86 components through January I960; on 85 components, February I960 to November I960,
and on 82 components thereafter. 19 components and 5 composites representing an additional 22 components are shown in the
direction-of-change table (table 7C).
2
April 16, 1962.
38
Analytical Measures
Table 5.-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) OVER SPECIFIED INTERVALS FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES:
OCTOBER 1958 TO PRESENT-Continued
Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-raonth figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are centered on the
middle month; 4-quarter figures are centered in the irfiddle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in 1st month of 2d
quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted directly. Table 7 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indexes
D41. Number of employees
in nonagri cultural establishments (30 industries)
Year and
month
1-month
interval
1958
October
Dae ember
1959
January *........*.
Karch
April
May
July
August . ........ * ,.
September. . . . .
....
November
December .... I. . . .
..
I960
January
«
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
*.
October
December *.t»..t...
1961
March
April
May
June
July
..
September
December
1962
February
March
April
May
June
;.'„
3 -month
interval
D47. Index of industrial
production
(25 industries)
1-month
interval
3 -month
interval
D54. Sales of retail stores
(24 types of stores)
1-month
interval
3 -month
interval
D58. Index of
wholesale
prices ( 23
mfg. indus.)
1-month
interval
76.7
81.7
78.3
93.3
90.0
93.3
74.0
94.0
56.0
92.0
88.0
80.0
87.5
47.9
75.0
37.5
83.3
60.4
62.9
49.9
46.7
90.0
80.0
88.3
83.3
81.7
75.0
68.3
43.3
60.0
36.7
55.0
78.3
90.0
88.3
83.3
90.0
88.3
83.3
65.0
58.3
38.3
45.0
58.3
61.7
56.0
60.0
76.0
88.0
90.0
56.0
74.0
28.0
44.0
38.0
50.0
92.0
70.0
76.0
88.0
92.0
84.0
76,0
62,0
44.0
26.0
34.0
58.0
84.0
37.5
58.3
83.3
47.9
68.8
39.6
66.7
39.6
29.2
39.6
77.1
41.7
81.2
81.2
77.1
89.6
58.3
66.7
29.2
50.0
45.8
62.5
54.2
58.3
64.7
84.8
76.4
64*0
81.7
69.3
56.9
43.4
60.2
56.4
58.6
46.7
56.7
83.3
53.3
55.0
50.0
30.0
35.0
30.0
21.7
30.0
20.0
11.7
80.0
81.7
66.7
58.3
40.0
38.3
25.0
25.0
30.0
23.3
15.0
16.7
62.0
16. C
52,0
62.0
66 .,0
58.0
52.0
34.0
18,i3
46.0
30.0
20.0
66.0
38.0
42.0
74.0
76,0
68.0
34.0
14.0
20.0
16.0
24.0
16.0
68.8
50.0
45.8
79.2
14.6
60.4
50.0
41.7
50.0
62.5
37.5
31.2
37.5
47.9
79.2
54.2
62.5
20.8
45.8
41.7
45-8
45.8
43.8
41.7
58.1
47.8
52.5
48.8
38.2
38.9
43.9
32.5
32.0
36.9
32.5
46.7
33.3
33.3
75.0
66.7
85.0
86.7
58.3
53.3
36.7
65.0
70.0
53.3
11.7
41.7
60.0
83.3
90.0
83.3
83.3
46.7
50.0
63.3
68.3
r53.3
46.0
32.0
58.0
86.0
84.0
84.0
76.0
66.0
22.0
88.0
72.0
64.0
32.0
56.0
80.0
92.0
94.0
84.0
100.0
62.0
72.0
76.0
84.0
r58.0
58.3
47.9
79.2
25.0
45.8
79.2
41.7
68.8
33.3
79.2
66.7
45.8.
39.6
72.9
47.9
58.3
54.2
70.8
83.3
35.4
75.0
70.8
89.6
70.8
38.6
41.3
52.5
64.0
49.1
51.9
50.4
52.1
58.1
43.4
43.4
53.3
r33.3
r85.0
P73.3
r6l.7
rlS.Q
r74-0
p78.0
r36.0
P68.3
r58.3
r72.9
p60.4
r54-2
P56.2
Revised.
Preliminary.
P50.0
66.8
r45.6
p6l.l
Analytical Measures
39
Table 6.-DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED, OVER SPECIFIED INTERVALS FOR 4 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITIESOCTOBER 1958 TO PRESENT
Numbers are centered within intervals: 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed
in 1st month of 2d quarter.
D36. New orders, durable manufactures
( . 0 companies)
40
4-quarter
interval
D35. Net sales,
manufactures
(800 companies)
4-quarter
interval
Year and
month
Actual
1953
October
November. . . .
December....
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
D6l. New plant and
equipment expenditures
(16 industries)
1-quarter
interval
D48. Freight carloadings
(19 manufactured
commodity groups)
/f-quarter
interval
Actual
Change in
Anticipated total (QQQ)
April
May
June
71.9
59.4
87
76
84
4.
21
84,2
82
76
77
57.9
89.5
+8
68
84
64
82
26.3
57.9
-146
61
82
58
76
31.6
68.4
+96
53
74
51
68
31.6
78.9
-103
70
50
68
21.1
50.0
-279
60
68
62
6R
26.3
42.1
-211
72
82
72
78
(NA)
89.5
-26
74
83
73
78
73.7
+78'
(NA)
86
(Ma)
86
89.5
r+125
82
89.5
(NA)
July
August
September...
October
November....
December....
1962
January
February. . . .
March
April
May
June
65.6
-73
78
62.5
-.173
76
53.1
56.2
78.9
37.5
46.9
52.6
43.8
28.1
84
71.9
34.4
82
71.9
56.2
88
84.4
+321
84
71.9
75.0
89.5
84*4
65.6
84.2
87-5
75.0
83
84.4
81.2
65
40.6
68.8
86
July
September, . .
October
November....
December....
1961
January* * * » *
February....
March
April
May
Anticipated
50.0
68
50
1959
January
February. * . .
March
April
May
June
*
July
August .....*
September...
October
November....
December. . . .
I960
January
February. . . .
Actual
"r" Revised.
86
62.5
(NA)
56.2
Table /.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1959 TO PRESENT
A.--(Dl) Average Workweek of Production Workers, Manufacturing (21 Industries)
3-month spans
I960
0
0
3
t-l* -K
0 0
>
0
O
0
)
O* 3) 3
< S 1-3
3 <D
<*! CO
0
o, +>
j>
o
£
X>
h
s •£ b ^ 5? ^
11 -p i A A J» i
4 ^ ' S 0 S3 Q >-5 fc S
5 -1
>
& -P ?
O C
0 ^
^
Q>
3
?J
0) 0
O
®
*? 1 "? «? f . ^ iS £ £ II 4 I CO
J i A A 4 i i j. §
B. &• § "3 SP S0
«J
S
i-a
"-a
< CO
£ SS3
i Ǥ* J?
O
O
<j>
<D
JJ
^d"
4-
4-
0 0 - 4 -
4-4-4-4-
I
1 4-
1 4-
1
1
1 4-
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
i + o 1 + + 0 1 I 1 C
I
4-
1
-
4-
I
+
0
I +
0
-
0
1
O
1
-
II
_
-
-
4-
4-4-4-4-
4-4-4-4-
4-
OJ
»r\
50 31 7 21 67 55 69 17 H 24 10 2 14 55 95 90 81 93 69 79 45 79 81 81
O
w
All manufacturing industries
>
KG
1962
r-1
26 14 21 31 48 69
-P
O
O
()
j
o s o
,_;
1961
I H
Percent rising
P
1-3
& 'S S
•-3 PB, as
Jan- Apr
rH
3
•-3 <: co o H «
£ |>» A H bp i
Feb-May
Mar-Juu
1959
Series components
+
4-
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
Ordnance and accessories
0
-
-
4-
+
+
Furniture and fixtures
+
-
-
-
o
+
-j-
4-4-4-
-
-
o
+
4 - 4 - 0
4-
o - - - - -
4-
Primary met^l products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery except ~el6ctrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Tn^t Torments and related products
—
—
o
+
-
o
—
-
4-
-4-4-4-
+
+
+
C
04-40 4- +
+ + +
+ + +
+ + +
4- + +,
4- + +
4-
+
+
4-
-
0
+
40
-
0
4"
4r
-r
4-
+
+
-
4-
4 - 4 - 0
+ 0 +
-
4-
NONDURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
—
_
—
4-
—
o
+
O
+
+
0
+
4-
o
4-
4-
4-
-
0
4-
4-
-
o
-
+
- - - - -
0
:! + ^
0
4-
0
-
-
-
-J-
o
0
+
4-
4- = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
NOTE: Series components are seasonally adjusted before the direction of change is determined.
44-
4-
4+
+
+
+
+
O
+
o
+ + + +
- 0 4 - +
44-
_
_
_
—
0
+
o
-
4-
4-
4-
-
4-
4-
- -
I
_
-
04-4*4
4O
I
+
1 0 1
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and allied products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Pptrol PUTTI &nd coal products
Rubber products
Leather and leather products
O
Analytical Measures
-j-
4 - Q 4 - - - -
Toble /.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
B.--(D6) Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods Industries (21 Industries)
3-month spans
Series components
H
3
>~3
tio ft -P
3 Q> 0
<*! CO O
>
o
0
0)
S «
i it & £ k k
O* 3d
«sj X
P
^
1961
I960
1959
P
*-s
P
<
<D
CO
a
!
»
l
P
a ) j 3 )J ( H f f- t fj d > £ £ H t3 l (f D &O- o > 0)
o d
p ;
a
^ p{ k Oj CgJ ^ J g fn^ *H ^ » d o o O C a
^
^ > c H b ^ U
>
O O ^ a 5 f l i . c c J & ^ P P 3 0 )
O S Q » - 3 P 4 S ! < i 5 S K > | - a < < C O
1962
C 3 - Q h t i ) > » f l r - t t l O D
- P > 0
^^^^^l^^^^iia
^ oi^ ia i Oj J .^ ia i C^i H ^j P. p iS .f D
i
i
o
J
t
<
O S Q ' - a ^ S ^ S ' - s ^ ^ . c o
4 ? Ai i A
*!!•£!
3
c
o
m
«J
0)
^
57 31 33 43 57 67 52 57 29 48 43 50 29 52 38 52 26 36 43 33 90 76 81 62 67 76 67 62 62 43 48 48 62
Iron and steel
-
-
-
4-
4-
•*>
-
Other iDrimary metals
Electrical generator appartus
Radio, television, and equipment
Other electrical equipment
Motor vehicles
-
-
-
-
+
+ _ _ _
+
- +
- +
-- _
_ + + + + - + -_ 4 -
+
_
- _ 4 -
+
+
4
-
+
_
Aircraft
Other transportation equipment
- +
4-
+
4-
+
4
-
-
» - t - t
+
+ - .
+
+ + + --
::!;!:
- - 4 -
+
+ - + + +- P - -
+
-
+
-
-
+
+
+
+
-
-
-
+
+
+
-
-
+
+
+
+
- O
+
- +
+ +
+
-
+
_ -
4-
4-
_
+
« .. f
+
+
+
+
H - - - H
+
+
- 4 - - - -
Metalworking machinery
+
-
4-
-
+
+
Engines and turbines
Agricultural implements
3
Office machines
+
4-
-
+
4-
-
-
+
0
-
-
+
+
+
+
4--H
+
4-
+
Other machinery
Other fabricated metal products
+
+
-t-
+
+
+
::;:::;;::;;
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
NOTE: Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
1
Includes durable industries not available separately.
4-
-
+ 4
Table /.-.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
C."(D19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks (24 Industries)
3-month spans
s.
o
g a
rt
J3
<d ^o)
3 o o
o
L.
U
b*
oj
cj« j}
jp
a)
d)
d
2
aj
< CO O E3 Q ^ Pn S
Apr-Jul
Jun-Sep
Jul-Ocb
Apr-JaL
1
1961
I960
1959
Series components
bo
CL
o
o
I! 1}
a ^tsi^^l^^^cS^I
^ i i i ^ i i ^ i ^ ^
i, 8ga3&£3£ZZ3&i
CD
CO
1962
g
-g
H
^
&H
J?
^ >?
•«?
^J
g
^
4 o jg aJ J> i
i i i <D cd
o
O
S3
«
Hi
(X,
S
68 66 36 21 26 64 57 27 12 28 41 52 51 64 39 36 42 76 94 96 96 95 94 71 57 58 55 56 62 73 52 40 38
500 stock prices
Mining and smelting
Coal, bituminous
4-
+
44-
44-
4-
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturing }
Paper
Publishing
4-
4-
-
-
-
-
4-
4-
+
+
-
4-
4-
-
u
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
-
_
4-
-
4-
4-
4444444-
4-
-
-
4-
-
- - - - - _
4-
0
4-
4-
4444-
4-
+
4-
4- 44-4+
-
-
44-
444-
444-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 0 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 _ _ _ _ + +
4-
4-
-
+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
-f
+
+
O
+
+
4-
444-
4+
4-
^
4_
4-
-
4-
4-- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
44+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - - - - 4 - 4 - 4 -
O
4-
-
4-
-
44-
4-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - _ - - - - 4 -
4-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - - - - - 4 -
-
-
-
-
4444-
0
-
-
0
4-
0
.
Natural gas distributors
Retail stores composite
Life insurance
4-
-
rt
^
»-**
°
Electronics
Automobiles
m -i
44-
4-
- +
Oil composite
Steel
Metal fabricating
Machinery compos ite
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
-
4-
-
+
4-
4-
44-
-
4-
444-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
_
-
-
-
44-
44-
44-
4-
4-
44-
+
4-
4-
-
-
4-
+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - - - - 4 -
4-4-4- + 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4- = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
NOTE: Series components are not seasonally adjusted.
1
Based on 86 industries through January I960; on 85 industries, February I 6 to November I960; and on 82 industries thereafter. 19 of the more important
90
industries are shown in this direction-of-change table. The food, oil, building materials, machinery, and retail composites represent an additional 22 industries which are included in the percent rising.
O
TobU /.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
D.--(D23) Index of Industrial Materials Prices (13 Industrial Materials)
3-month spans
I960
a 1 * 11 1
3 ? A i j> 7
1
0
O
0
&
Q)
0
«J
^
Q>
fe
Hi
SJ
1962
1961
1
X
D
1
-P
O
O
t=*
C
S
O
o a
j ji
3 t-j «
3 J
3
a
aj
JP
M
^
Q)
<ri
PJ
>
0
C
•7 »r ^ f
-P
o
O
o a? aJ
S3 « >-a
& §^ 1 &
S
t-j
1-3
<t|
CQ
Jul-Oct
Aug-Nov
Sep-Dec
!
a
o
Apr-Jul
May-Aug
-P
o
o
1
Aug-Nov
1959
Series components
J i A t |
a & ^ *t
aJ
fl)
cd
DH
0
O
O
S
0)
Q
OJ
»~5
x c
aj
P
<D
(X,
^
S
7 »? =? t f 7
-P
>
0
fl
JQ
(H
54 58 54 58 54 58 46 54 54 46 46 50 46 38 58 35 42 15 31 46 77 73 81 58 50 54 69 69 42 46 58 62 54 42
Lead scrap (ib )
Tin (""b )
Zinc (ib . )
Burlap ( yd )
Cotton ( Ib )
+ + +
o
0
o
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - - falling.
NOTE: Series components are not seasonally adjusted.
1
Data for April 16,
0
+-
_
O
O
-
O
4-
-j-
_
-
_
+ + o
+
+ o o o o o - -
* -
+ -*• + +
_
_ -
- O
0
O
0
0
0 0
+
D
+ +++++
_
o + + + + +
0
-
0
o o
+ +
+ + + + + + + + o o
14 market averase
Wool tops (Ib. )
Hide s ( Ib 0
Rosin (lOO Ib . )
Rubber (Ib )
Tallow (Ib )
+ +
+
+ +
_
+
;I
- - •+
+ + -
-
- 0
+
O
:! 1 !
+ + ++
+
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ 0 0
0
0
-
-
+
O
0
O
0
Hr
v
<rt
n*
0 0
- - + + + + -
Table 7-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continoed
E.-(D5) Average Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, State Programs (26 Areas)
3-month spans
•p
a -a
Series components
—(
p"
•£
O *H
t>n Q- -P
3
<
(D O
CO 0
^ ij 3 d
a. ^ £> P
<U
g
hs
>-s
t>
o
O fl>
53 Q
1962
1961
I960
1959
JH OS
OJ S
C! J3
f-t
J-i
> » C l r H
W ) a - P >
O
o J O > < r i f t « I 3 P P C i > G o d )
j H
J
p
h
^ | > > q
r
H W ) & - P > 0
^ ( S ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ c ^ c S S a
i
D i
- ^ ^ 1 ^ ^ 1 » c f s «
5
o
!•!? i* 7 P > o| c ! ^f > ^7 J > » f l H b P a <o, ^ o ti pi o. i o ^ i ^ i J j tP l p
o
^
3 o> o so ; c« p -a 3J C ltJ 4 f l < f t;«sI ^P ' - P < c n O a Q > - 3j C t i dS <A ti - 3 ( - s < c ©
o
^
S
o
S
t
3
co
4
<
3 1 C? 1 i 1
i (rf 0 gj
CJ
O
O
S5
«
1-3
fe
S
40 26 23 6 17 53 83 83 40 40 28 43 38 21 33 20 49 31 54 53 68 62 66 62 51 55 40 61 77 60 53 73 87
Percent rising
+ N A N A N A - -
+
- - -
+
-
NORTHEAST REGION
7
_
16 Buffalo*
11 Newark*
1 New Yo rk
_
_
—
—
-r
,
21
4 Philadelphia*
g P i 1 1 sburff h * *
,. - - - -
+ +
+
+ - +
_ + - _ - _
+
-
+
?T Providence**
+
_
+
-
+
-
+
+
- - + + + + + + - - 4 - 4 - +
+ +
+ + +
+ + +
+ _ • + + + ___
+ + + + ,
+ +
- +
+ +
+ +
__ +
+ +
++
o
3 Chicago
IS Cincinnati
10 Cleveland
?6
5 Detroit**
25 Indianapolis
22 Kansas C ity*
IS Milwauke e
13 Minneapolis
q St Louis
+ NANANA+
-
-
.
-
+
-
-
-
-
- +
_
-
+
_
_
.
_
- -
+
_ - _
+ + .
+ _
+ + + ,+ -" + _ .+ +" + _! +
+ - _ - + + __ + _
-
- +
___
+ + +
+
•+•
+
+
_ + , + -
+
+
+
+
_
+ +
+ +
+ - -
"
+
+
+
+
_ _
+
+
___
+
+
_
+
-
+
- +
+ +
SOUTH REGION
20 Atlanta
..
+
-t- +
+ +
+ + +
+ + +
.
12 Bait" imorp*
17 Dallas
l/i
WEST REGION
2 Los AnEeles
2Z. Po rt la nd *
+
+
+
+
+
6 San Francisco
19 Seattle
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
- = rising; o = unchanged; + = falling. (Because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises, it is
inverted to show a comparable activity pattern.) NA = not available.
NOTE: Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
*Denotes areas of substantial unemployment {6 percent or more) in March 1 6 as designated by BES.
9 2
**Denotes areas of substantial (6 percent or more) and persistent unemployment in March 1 6 as designated by BES.
9 2
percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas.
*<
r*
H-*
NORTH CENTRAL REGION
Directions of change are shown for only the largest 26.
en
Analytical Measures
45
unp—A"I=JJ^
A""9^— jdy
.idy— JB^
CN
JtBH-W
qaj-u*p
H
P
1
uj
+
4
1+
I+
+ + + + + +
O O I + +
Q 4 - 4 + + + + + + ++
u*r-oa0
J^
'
(
1
090 -AON
^
1
1
1
1
+
1
1 + I + + + + +I
AON-^OO
£>
+
1
+
1
+0
1
1 + 0 + +
+
1 0 +
1+ + + +
Q I I + + + + + + +
t + O l l l l + O I
1
G++ + + + + I +
1 1 I + + +
1
++
IO
+I
+ + + 0 + I + +
1
1
1
0 + O
I O O +
1 +
+ 0+ + + I + I
+ I I I 4 . + 4-4-4.
+ + i i i i i i o i
4 ( 0 0 ( 0 + ++
1 + 1 + 0 1 i + o o
i i i i I + +++
^OQ-dag
dag-Sny
r-
(
+ + i i + i t i ( i i
§ny— "[Tip
m
o
O O + + O + + +1+
+ + + 4 + 0 1 + + 0 1
rH
"tttp— unp
§
H
urif-A1^
to
/^j-jdv
i
to
U"N
jdy—j"B^
JiJN-qaj
qg^—u-gp
^
+
en
t
o 1 +
CQ
UTS'f— 0 3Q
en
i
o + i i t i i + i i i
1
(
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09Q-AON
(V
1
O
1
1
O
1
+ I I I 1 I I + I I I
aoo-dss
0
(
O
dag-Snv
cv
t
o i t i i i i i + i i
Stvy— "pi_p
0
1
+
1
+
(
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I
i
AON-CPO
H
£ 4
I i
Z
<
CNi
1
1
l
I
I
1
l
I
1
t
t
1
l
I +
1
l
1
l
I
I
1
(
1
1
l
1
1
t
I +
1
l
1
l
1
+ + + 44
I o I +
+ + 0 + I
I +
1 + 0 1 ( 1 +
( + 1 1 + + 1 + 4 -
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
(
1 +
+
1
I
I
I
1
1
1
1
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I I 1 I I + I I I I
( , 1 1 1 1 4 , 4 . 1 4 .
+ + 1 I I + I O I O
l
-P
1 ( 1 1 1 4 4 1 +
1
1
I
+ + I + 1 0 0 + +
I +
1
1
| ( | l + + 4.o +
+ + t i i i i i t i
i i t i i + oo +
I I I I I 0 1 0 I +
I
+ | | + | + + + 4.
M
UJ
"pip— tmp
m
o
unr-Jtaw
0
I
I I 1 I I I I I I I +
1
+ + i
1 ( l ( 0 + + 0 + (
i i + o o i
t
1
l + i + + + + i o
A*Bjfl— jdy
O
1
O I I + 1 1 I I I O +
( O O + + + + + I O
1+I
jdy-jsw
^
+
^-qai
en
o
+
qaj-irep
to
$
rH
o
z
H *
U19f — OSQ
3 30 -AON -
1 + + +
i
+
(
1 1
(
i
1
(
1
(
1
t
I +
o
+
3
+
i t + + i + o + +
+
+ I + I + + + + +OI
+ 0 0 1 + 1 0 + 1 1
1 ) 4 . 1 + 4 - 4 - 1 4 ,
+
+ + + ++
+ O I + + + I + I I
+ + + + + + + ( +
+ + + ++I
^
+
l+- + 0 + 1 1 ( 1 1 +
loo-dag
O
1
+ 1 I I I 1 I + 1 O O
s
dag-Snv
0
v£)
en
+
+ ( 1 1 1 + + + + + +
(
i i i i i i o + i o i
w
+
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W-nnr
+ + + + + + +I
£
AON-;OO
Z
( O + + + + I Q + +
1 +
+ O + + I +
tO
0
E
+ 0 ( I O O + I ( +
1 0 t 0 + +
en
to
en
-P
+ + +
++
to
4+
+ 1 1 + 0 + 0 ( 1 1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1 0
( I I + + +0+
1 0
+ 1 + + + + + + +
+ I I + + + + + +
+ +
1 ( 0 ( 1 + + + +
+ + i + i + + i i i
14.14.4.4.4,14,
+ + + + +
+o
3
+ ( o + + + +o +
-P
1
1
d
ti
OT3f-tn}qoH>>fta5aJ
pj
•H
3
O
(UftM
o
-prto^p!
O
-H.T^tHrH.ft'H®
nj
ow-p
0qj-p
^-i^-inj
T3-POctfTJ^rHO
o!c)T3ft
•H
^-t
IH
uo
CCtO
«J
+ 3 O O C C 3
OT^
i—i ® M w J O o i t o
O
f*
rH
eDoJf-tO
-P^O(-i0cd
0
d
>» OS O -H O g rH
o f t *
^
-P
*o>
o f l f i o j *
o
fi
rttiD
OJ
f-»0!jfttD*rHP«
-P(D
rc)^
F-II-H
T J ^ O I—i
-PfiT^
wool
M
0
HoJ
^ o
TJ
G toDr-l P f t
CO<DrH«JC!e(5eD
^i
4^>^trH4J*«
C
OOed
Q3Q)fHo)
§1
II
O
o «
Table /.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
ON
G.-CD47) index of Industrial Production (25 Industries)
1-month spans
Series components
(j
W)
ft
-P
>
O
^
^
01
O S5
^
t-a *-» <$ co o
a
1962
1961
I960
1959
!>»
§ x> i fc j fcC H . q jrj^ 3no^ ft w-P" C> 5 o
5
G
w
^
J
t - j p ^ S - ^ S ^ ^ ^ C O O S ^
O C 3 J j J n f H > » G H t l D P ) - P >
£-5*-3pE«2s!«3jS|-i)'-S<j;cOOS
c x>
^t
jQ ^i tn > » d i - nt M ff t - P >
0
2 J ^ 0 , ^ P ^ ^ 3
' * ' O < ' ' >
M
J D < t f < D . a ] CX.qj P 3 3
fl)OO
Q » - > ( a 4 3 E , * < S * ^ l ~ 3 < C O i O ^
jp
«J
I-J
^
fl)
Q
fxj
S
™
fll
oj
CX
>> g
at
d
art
CX
jjj
J^
=3;
^
T ^ lj fS^ iTi T Ig' ? *M 'a ?^' ? 7 ^ =5 1 ^ 7
?
o i
^
H
g o e: x> ti r-t >»
74 28 44 38 50 92 62 16 52 62 66 58 52 34 18 46 30 20 46 32 58 86 84 84 76 66 22 88 72 64 18 74 78
Percent ris ing
All indireiitrial production
-
_ -
+
4+
o 4- 4- - 4- - - 4- 4_ - + + +
4_
_
_
-
4-
4+
4+
0
4- _
+ -
_
-
4+
_
_ 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 -
+
_
_ + 4-
4-
+
-
+ +
+ +
DURABLE GOODS
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
„
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation eouipment
+
4-
+
0
_
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
- - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - Q 4 - 4 - 0
- - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - O - - - -
- 0 +
- 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 -
+ - 4 - - 4 - - Q - - - 4 - 4 4 - _ _ - + _ O + + - -
_ _ _
4 - - - 4
_ +
_ _ 0 -
+
- 4
•*4
+ +
- 4 + +
- +
0
+
-
+
+
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 40 +
4-
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
+ II
+ + t l l t l l t
_ + _ + + + + _ _ 0 _ _
—
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4- - - + _ +
+
4-
--
+ + -
+ + - - -
+
--
+
+
4 +
4-
_+
- - 4 - 4
+ - +
+ - 4 -
+
- 4
+
4 -
+
+
_
0-
+
+
+
-
—
4 ~ O
—
•*--
+
NONDURABLE GOODS
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
O
4+
4-
44-
4444-
44o
-
44o
44+
44-
+ +
-
_
_
+
+
_ - + + + - + -_
+ + + - - 4 - 4 - - O - 4 - - - -
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - O +
4 - 4 - - 4 - O +
- - O O
+ 4 -
4
4
4
—
- 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4
4 - - 4 - - 4
- 4 - - 4 - 4 -
+
-
4-
4- - 4-
- 4
- 4
- 4
0
- 4
- 4
- 4
0
+
+
+
+
Rubber products
Leather and leather products
+
_
+
+
+
0
_
+
_
+
-
_
_ - _ 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 4 - _ - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - _ 4 - 4 - 4 -
- 4 - 4 - - 0
- - - 4 + _ 4 4 - - 4 + _ +
0
MINERALS
Coal
..
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
-
_
_
+
4-
4-
- - - 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - _
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - _ _ _ 4 - _ _ 4 - 4 _ - _ 4 - _ 4 - + _ _ 4 - - -
4 - 4 - - - 4 + +
4- = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
NOTE: Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
O 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - Q
+ - 4 - _ 4 - 4 - 4 4 - Q 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 + + -_
+
--
-
+
-
- o
0
+
4-
-
-t-
-
^<
f->
>—•
o
Table /.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
H.--(D54) Sales of Retail Stores (24 Types of Stores)
3-month spans
All' retail sales
Oct-Jan
Sep-Dec
Jun-Sep
Jul-Oct
|
3
FH
f
i) og iI
il :
II
\ 0) idA
i
tf
3
(D
c
Z
«
H3
fe
S
SI
i ^
-S s
4
E
&
Jfer-Jun
&
t
...
...
-
-
o
1a 3 1 i
! it
-p
§
X»
0)
o
O
0
o
<p
S ^5
O
JH
j}
^
>»
O* ^
d
p
oi
1-3
at
S
i j, 1
4 - 4 - 4 '
-
4-
4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
4-
-
-
4-
- 4 - 4 -
4-
-
4-
4_
4-
44-
- 4 - 4 -
4-
_
4-
-
4-
4-
-
44-
-
+
-
4-
4-
4-
4-
-
4-
4-
4-
4-
-
4-
4-
-
-
-
4-
-
o
- 4 - 4 -
+
-
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
-
+
-
+
4-
4-
4-
-
-
_
_
4+
0
4-
0
444-
4-
_
4-
-
4-
4-
4-
<D
&4
4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
44+
4-
44-
- 4 - 4 -
4-
4-
4-
- 4 - 4 -
4-
+
4-
o
+
40
-*-
4-
4-
4-
4-
-
4-
444-
+
4-
+
4-
44-
-
4-
-
+
4-
+
4-
-
-
4-
4-
4-
4-
-
4-
4 - 4 - 4 -
4-4-
+
4-
-*-
4-
-
•*-
4-
-
+
4-
-
-
4-
4-
4-
-
rt
^
4-
4 - 4 - Q
4 - 4 - 4 -
44-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
- - +
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
-
4-
4-
4-
4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
+
+
4-
+
4-
4-
4-
O
4-
4-
+
4-
4-
-
4-
-
;
-
+
4 - 4 - 4 -
4 - 4 - 4 -
4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
44-
4-
0
4-
-
4-
4-
-
4-
4-
-
-
4-
_
4-
+
-
-
4-
4-
4-
4-
44-
4-
+
4-
+
4-
4-
O
4-
4-
*;
-
-
4-
4-
+
4-
4-
4-
»3
-
4-
+
n'
44-
+
4-
4-
-
4-
>
D
*>
o
4+
+
44-
+
_
—
_
4-
+
4-
4-
-
o
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
0
+
+
-
4-
4-
4-
-
4-
4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
4-
4 - 4 - 4 -
-
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
NOTE: Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
a
4-
+
_
4-
4-
-
_
4-
4444-
_
4-
4 - 4 - 4 -
44-
4 - 4 - 4 4-
--
4-
4-
4-
easures
Motor vehicle dealers
Tire and battery dealers
Gasoline stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Jewelry stores
Liquor stores
Other durable goods stores
Other nondurable goods stores
\\1 1
I
-
4-
4-
Women's apparel stores
Family apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture stores
Appliance and radio stores
Building material dealers
Hardware stores . ...
Farm equipment dealers
% <! tO
k §•
*-3
•3 3
9
^
1962
67 29 50 46 62 54 58 38 48 • 79 54 62 21 46 42 46 46 44 42 40 73 48 58 54 71 83 35 75 71 90 71 .5,4 56
Percent rising
Other ffeneral stores
Men ' s wear store s
0
Feb-May
*1*
«t £ »-»
Grocery stores
Other food stores
Eat ins places
Department stores
Mail-order stores
>
CO
Oct-Jan
-P
•d < & 8 §. &
§P
•-3
1961
I960
1959
Series components
Cyclical Patterns
48
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of reference peak levels measured from reference peak dates to 18 months
after reference trough dates in 4 recent business cycles, for selected series.
9. Construction contract!, comm. ond indus.
Index
180
Reference trough dates
October, 1949™*pr«l, 1958
• • • 'August, 1954
February, 1961
160
140
1. Average workweek, manufacturing
Index
120
100
100
80
29. New pvt. housing units authorized
150
95
140
24. Value of new orders, moch. and equip.
150
130
140
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
80
90
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
Months from reference troughs
418
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2* (series 1), the figure for the reference peak is set
at "100* For series with an MCD of *3" or more (series 9, 24, 29), the average of the reference peak month, the month
preceding the reference peak month, and the month following the reference peak month is set at "100".
•''For the I 949, 19514, and 1958 cycles a 3-term moving average i* shown.
Latest data plotted: Series 9 - February?, Series 1, 24, 29- March.
Cyclical Patterns
49
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels measured from reference peak dates to 18 months
after reference trough dates in 4 recent business cycles, for selected series.
Index
150
13. New business incorporations
------ - Reference trough dates
October, 1949-—April, 1958
« - * -August, 1954
February, 1961
140
17. Price per unit of labor cost
130
120
110
100
90L
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
180
23. Industrial materials prices
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
- 80
90
-I 70
80 L
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
Months from reference troughs
+18
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
For series with a "months for cyclical Jominonce" (MCD) of "1" or "2* (series 19, 23), the figure for the reference peak is
set at "100*. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 13, 17), the average of the reference peak month, the month
preceding the reference peak month, and the month following the reference peak month is set at "100".
Latest data plotted: March.
Cyclical Patterns,
50
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak level*; measured from reference peak dates to 18 months
after reference trough dates in 4 recent business cycles, for selected series.
Index
105
41. Employees in nonog. establishments
dates
'/
Reference trough dates
-October, 1949—April, 1958
• •August, 1954 —February, 1961
43. Unemployment rate (inverted)
100 -
-1 40
55. Wholesale prices (excl. farm and food)
- 105
- 100
100 -
J
95L
-12
-6
0
+6
412
Months from reference troughs
+18
-12
-6
0
'46
+12
95
418
Months from reference troughs
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) «f T or "2* (series 41, 43, 55), the figure for the reference
peak is set at "100". For series with an MCD of *3" or more (series 54), the average of the reference peak month, the
month preceding the reference peak month, and the month following the reference peak month is set at "100".
Latest data plotted; March.
Cyclical Patterns
51
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS'-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels measured from reference peak dates to 18 months
after reference trough dates in 4 recent business cycles, for selected series.
47.
Industrial production
Reference trough dates
-October, 1949—April, 1958
•August, 1954
February, 1961
51. Bonk debits outside N.Y.C
- 100
J
95
52. Personal income
120
115
110
105
100 100
95 u
J 95
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
Months from reference troughs
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 47, 52), the figure for the reference peak
is set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 51), the average of the reference peck month, the month
preceding the reference peak month, and the month following the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly
series (series 49), the reference peak quarter is set at "100".
Latest data plotted: Series 47, 51r 52 - March; Series 49 * 1st Q 1962.
52
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels measured from reference peak dates to 18 months
after reference trough dates in 4 recent business cycles, for selected series.
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.
Reference trough dotes
April, 1958
February, 1961
October, 1949
August, 1954
Index
61. New plant and equip, expenditures, Q
120
110
100
90
67. Bank rote, short-term business loans, Q
64, Manufacturers' inventories, total
125
120
- no
115
-, 105
110
- 100
105
_ 95
100
95
- 90
90
-6
-12
0
+6
+12
Months from reference troughs
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 62 and 64) the figure for the reference
peak is self at "100". For quarterly series (series 61 and 67), the reference peak quarter is set at "100".
Latest data plotted:
Series 62 - March; Series 64 - February; Series 61 - 4th Q 1961; Series 67 • 1st Q 1962.
Cyclical Patterns
CHART 5
53
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of specific trough levels measured 1 to 30 months after specific
trough dates in 4 recent expansions, for selected series.
9. Construction contracts, comm. and indus.
Specific trough dates X identified
with reference trough dates in1949
19581954....
1961
1. Average workweek, manufacturing
Index
105
-
J
...
.*
"':
100
120
100
Specific trough levels
Y
29. New pvt. housing units authorized
160
24. Value of new orders, moch. and equip.
150
200 r
140
180
130
160
T40
120
120
110
100u
100
0
-r6
-H2
+18
+24
-+30
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
Months from specific troughs
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1* or "2" (series 1), the figure for the specific trough is set
at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 9, 24, 29), the average of the specific trough month, the month
preceding the specific trough month, and the month following the specific trough month is set at "100*.
1
See appendix table B for "specific"dates,
2
For the 1949 and 1958 cycles, a 3-term moving average is shown; the 1961 specific trough date has been selected
tentatively.
plotted; Series 9- Febniary;Series 1, 24, 29- March*
Latest data
54
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS»Con.
Percent of specific trough levels measured 1 to 30 months after specific
trough dates in 4 recent expansions, for selected series.
13. New business incorporations
Specific trough dates1 identified'
with reference trough dates in1949
1954....
1958
1961
17. Price per unit of labor cost
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
23. Industrial materials prices
200
180
160
140
120
100
0
+6
"HI 2
-H 8
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs
+30
For series with a 'months for cyclical dominance1* (MCD) of "1" or "2* (series 19, 23), the figure for the specific trough
is set at * 100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 13,17), the average of the specific trough month, the
month preceding the spec! fie trough month, and the month following the specific trough month is set at "100*.
1
See appendix table 6 for "specific" dates,
Latest data plotted: March
55
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS.-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels measured } to 30 months after specific
trough dates In 4 recent expansions, for selected series.
Index
41. Employ*** in no nag. establishments
115
Specific trough dates1 identified
with reference trough dotes in1949——
1958 ——
1954*...
1961
110
43. Unemployment rote (inverted)'
105
100
- 120
47. industrial production
-1 100
I i> I i i I i iI i i 1 i i 1 i i1 i i I
135
49, GNP, current dollars
130
135
125
130
125
120
120
115
115
110
110
105
105
J 100
100 L-
i Iii ti
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs
+30
0
+6
+12
+18
L_LLJ
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of T or *2f (series 41, 43, and 47), the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For quarterly series (series 49), the specific trough quarter is set at "100*.
See appendix table B for "specific" dates.
Latest data plotted: Series 41, 43, 41 - March; Series 49 - 1st Q 1962.
Cyclical Patterns
56
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels measured 1 to 30 months after specific
trough dates in 4 recent expansions, for selected series.
51. Bank debits outside N.Y.C
Specific trough datesl identified
with reference trough dates in1949
19581954 ....
1961
Index
135
130
54. Sales of retail stores
Index
125
120
115
115
no
110
105
105
ioo
\ , I i . I i i I i i I , i I i i I i i 1, . I . . I . ,
53. Labor income, industrial
100
> 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i i i. 1 1 1 1 1 . 1 1 . i 1 1 1
150
52. Personal income
130r
140
125
130
120
120
115
110
no
105
100
100 L
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs
+30
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) olf "1" or "2" (series 52, 53), the figure for the specific
trough is set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 51, 54), the average of the specific trough
month, the month preceding the specific trough month, and the month following the specific trough month is set at "100***
*$ee appendix table B for "specific" dates.
2
Bas*d on tentative specific trough date for 1961 expansion,
Latest data plotted: March.
57
Cyclical Patterns
Table 8.--PERCENT OF REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS, FOR SELECTED SERIES
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 19, 23, 4-1, 43, 47, 52, 55, 62, 64
and 66), the figure for the reference peak month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series
2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 17, 24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the reference peak month, the month immediately preceding the reference peak month, and the month immediately following the reference peak month is used as the base. The
base for quarterly series (49) 50, 6l, 67) is the reference peak quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix table C.
Selected series
Months
after
reference
trough1
Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in —
July
1921
July
1924
Nov.
1927
Mar.
1933
June
1938
Oct.
1949
Aug.
1954
Apr.
1958
Feb.
1961
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing
13
12
12
NA
71.4
22.6
96.4
47.2
51.7
98.8
114.2
152.5
72.3
76.8
52.0
93.7
92.0
65.6
103.3
121.7
166.6
100.5
96.6
82.4
102.0
122.7
118.8
101.0
106.2
129.6
13
174.0
123.1
87.2
44.4
80.3
147.2
130.6
116.0
106.7
13
141.2
173.2
106.4
15.5
127.7
137.2
123.8
136.1
107.8
12
13
47.7
78.2
120.9
107.7
115.3
107.6
16.4
69.7
69.2
83.1
155.7 134.0
98.9 139.8
107.4
139.6
113.4
102.3
13
13
13
13
18.4
NA
100.0
54.9
110.5
NA
129.8
103.3
110.8
NA
177.8
97.1
194.7
NA
36.3
70.7
92.3
NA
72.1
78.7
130.2
107.7
129.7
130.9
94.5
103.8
182.5
114.3
99.4
103.2
119.5
99.1
127.1
99.9
127.3
96.5
13
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
131.8
113.0
107.8
13
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
128.4
112.5
13
13
13
12
9
13
13
13
79.4
NA
•88.4
NA
NA
84-3
NA
96.8
94.5
NA
97.9
106.5
NA
111.9
108.5
102.0
101.3
NA
109.6
110.6
NA
123.7
109.7
105.4
80.6
0.2
70.0
59.1
NA
49.1
60.9
70.4
95.5
69.4
87.5
95.6
NA
90.4
94-7
94.2
103.4
90.5
116.2
114.4
109.5
117.2
111.4
106.8
101.5
64.3
104.3
109.4
104.4
116.3
108.8
110.7
101.0
81.9
107.9
109.0
102.7
110.8
108.3
107.5
100.4
94.3
105.6
108.4
104.8
114.6
107.9
103.8
13
67.7
96.3
93.1
87.0
93.5 105.7
102.7
101.9
99.3
9
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
94.5
96.8
81.1
97.5
13
12
12
77.8
NA
NA
97.2
NA
NA
90.9
NA
NA
86.7
70.8
53.0
100.0
88.4
102.2
97.5
100.9
166.7
99.1
98.3
123.2
98.5
94.4
106.4
99.6
102.3
106.1
12
86.5
90.8
113.7
71.3
96.7
107.6
101.1
100.8
93.1
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
7. New private permanent nonfarm dwelling
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space2
1 . Current liabilities of business
4
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin29. New private housing units authorized by
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q) . .
51. Bank debits outside NYC, 34,3 centers
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
62. Wage and salary cost per unit of output,
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities (Q)
NA Not available.
1
Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available..
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Cyclical Patterns
58
Table 9.-PERCENT CHANGE FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE
TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS, FOR SELECTED SERIES
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 55, 62, 64,
66), the figure for the reference trough month is used as the base. For series with an MOD of "3" or more (series 2,
3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 17, 24, 29, 51, 54), the average of the reference trough month, the month immediately preceding
the reference trough month, and the month immediately following the reference trough month is used as the base. The
base for quarterly series ( 9 50, 6l, 6?) is the reference trough quarter. See MCD footnote to appendix table C.
4,
Selected series
Months
after
reference
trough1
Percent change from reference trough of expansion
beginning in—
July
1921
July
1924
Nov.
1927
Mar.
1933
June
1938
Oct.
1949
Aug.
1954
Apr.
1958
Feb.
1961
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing . «
3- Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted)
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
goods industries
7. New private permanent nonfarm dwelling
+0.6
NA
-2.5 +7.5 +4.0 +3.0 +5.4 +3.1
13
+5.5
12 +521.8 +120.0 +56.2 +89.0 +3.0 +37.0 +33.0 +32.4 -3.2
12 +615,2 +66.7 +115.2 +64.0 +32.3 +148.5 +27.5 +95.8 +50.0
+131.0 +33.6 +59.2 +40.5 +35.5
14. Current liabilities of business
failures (inverted)
1?. Price per unit of labor cost index
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
23. Index of industrial materials prices
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries
29. New private housing units authorized by
local building permits
+9.9
13
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor spaces
+146 ,,5
+44.3
+86.8
12
13
+75,0 +74.1 +32.9 +36.7 +40.2 +80.4 +38.3 +36.7 +21.7
+8,1 +45.4 +3.6 -12.0 -3.5 -5.4 +18.4 +46.2 +10.3
+9,1 +22.5 +20.4 +135.9 +25.3 +11.0 -0.8 +32.1 +29.2
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
+8.7 +4.4 +10.1 +2.0
+35,2 +24.6 +35.7 +75.3 +14.7 +24.8 +44.3 +36.9 +13.1
+31,2 +23.1 -0.4 +70.2 +17.5 +74.1 +H.3 +14.0 +1.1
13
13
13
13
13
-12.7
+2.3
+2.9
+36.0
-4.7
13
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
13
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
13
13
13
12
9
13
13
13
+15 a
+8.8
MA
NA
+31-0 +17.5
M
+9.0
NA
+8,8 +15.5
+16,0
+9.1
+4.0
+1.1
+5.5
NA
+18.8
+10.1
NA
+13.8
+7.1
+5.4
+3.6
+41.8
+38.2 +34.7
NA
+26.3
+15.9
+19.4
+12.3
+16.8
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
43* Unemployment ra'^e, total (inverted)
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
51. Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers
54 . Sales of retail stores
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than farm products and foods
m
+17.8
+6.6
+9.0
+52.4 +23.6 +88.3
+ 4 8 +27.3 +27.5
4.
+17.2
+8.5 +18.4
NA
• NA +11.1
+28.8
+8.3 +22.0
+6.4 +16.4
+23.7
+24.6 +13.9
+7.2
13
+7,5
+5.3
9
KA
NA
NA
NA
13
12
12
-13.6
-5.5
HA
NA
NA
NA
-7.7
NA
NA
+18.2
+19.5
+11.0
12
-19.8
+3.5
+18.1
-8.4
0.0 +19.5
+5.1 +5.3 +2.5
+45.4 +45.0 +26.8
+15.9 +25.4 +13.4
+11.4 +11.7 +9.6
+7.6 +6.8 +7.2
+14.5 +14.5 +11.9
+9.1 +8.7 +8.0
+11.5 +11.4 +7.8
-1.2
+11.3
+3.5
+2.4
-0.5
NA
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
6l. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total (Q)
62. Wage and salary cost per unit of output,
total manufacturing
64. Manufacturers' inventories, book value
66. Consumer instalment debt
6?. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities (Q)
+18.1
+1.3
+1.0
+4.6
-3.6 +1.9
-6.7 +10.3
+9.6 +34.3
-2.2
+4-4
+19.2
-9.5
-0.8
+5.5
-2.9
+4.8
+2.6
+7.2
+5.9
+16.8
+0.2
-0.9
NA Not available,
1
Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
8
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
59
Cyclical Patterns
Table 10-PERCENT OF "SPECIFIC" PEAK LEVELS AND PERCENT CHANGE FROM 'SPECIFIC" TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT
DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE "SPECIFIC" TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS, FOR SELECTED SERIES
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of HI" Or "2" (series 1, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 53), the figure
for the "specific" peak (trough) month is used as the base.
For series with an MOD of "3" or more (series 9, 13, 17,
24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the "specific" peak (trough) month, the month immediately preceding the "specific"
peak (trough) month, and the month immediately following the "specific" peak (trough) month is used as the base. The
base for quarterly series (49, 50) is the "specific" peak (trough) quarter. See also MOD footnote to appendix table C.
Months
after
"specific"
trough1
Selected series
July
1921
July
1924
Nov.
1927
Mar.
1933
June
1938
Oct.
1949
Aug.
1954
Apr.
1953
Feb.
1961
Percent of "specific" peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in year shown
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
15
96,0
99.6
72.0
90.2
NSC
98.8
98.0
99,5
10
14
12
17
15
28.8
75.2
NA
93.6
57.9
100.0
106.0
NA
110.2
96.4
100.4
104.2
NA
NSC
69.8
16.8
58.9
NA
31.2
61.7
57.8
69.1
NA
70.5
87.6
76.9
70.1
101.2
117.9
110.6
NSC
NSC
88.8
140.5
58.4
86.2
135.9
101.7
118.8
90.6
116.1
95.3
98.3
117.7
94.8
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
91.1
106.0
107.2
15
19 Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks. . .
NA
17
9- Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space2.
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
83.4
87.6
94.0 102.2
79.4
NA
NA
NA
86.0
97.9 109.6
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NSC
84-9 113-0
NA 104.6 100.7
NA
NA
NA
NSC
93.9 102.9
80.6
NA
73.3
59.1
NA
46.7
60.9
58.2
70.4
95.1
63.1
85.9
91.0
NA
92.1
94.0
86.6
93.6
103.4
79.5
114.8
103.2
101.5
63.9
101.0
106.6
101.8 102.4
NSC
116.3
110.5 105.0
113.6 104.3
NSC 105.3
100.9
77.0
107.2
105.3
100.6
110.1
106.2
106,1
107.5
100.2
90.1
104.2
108.4
104.8
113.5
107.1
103.7
104.3
24- Value of manufacturers' new orders, m;achin29. Index of new private housing units
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural
43' Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)...
51. Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers.
54- Sales of retail stores
.
13
10
13
12
9
15
13
13
14
Percent change from "specific" trough related to reference
expansion beginning in year shown
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
15 +10.8
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space2.
17 Price per unit of labor cost index. ....... .
1^. Index of stock prices^ 500 common stocks
24- Value of manufacturers1 new orders, machin-
+5.9
+4.0
+9.6
+8.2
10 +39.4 +59.3 +30.0 +73.8 +27.3
+6.6 -13.4
14 +7.7 +41.7 +13.6
NA
NA
NA
NA
12
NA
NSC +-105.0 +29.1
17 +38.0 +29.4
15 +42.1 +30.7 -2.3 +66.0 +41.5
+3.0
+4-1
+5.2
NSC
+78.8
NSC
+18.5
+7.1
+3.3
+41.9 +58.1
+64.2 +11.9
+35.7
+49.4
+9.0
+43.7
+14.4
+22.9
+11.5
+2.0
+30.8
+3.7
+6.0
17
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA +140.6 +52.4 +42.9
+15.1
15
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
+17.6
+8.8
+15.1
NA
NA
+27.6 +17.5
NA
NA
NA
NA
+17.8
+11.5
+12.2
+8.5
NA
NA
+6.9
+5.9
+7.9
NA
+18.8
NA
NA
NSC
+3.3
NA
NSC
29. Index of new private housing units
NA
NA
+35.0
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q) . . .
51 Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers....
13
10
13
12
9
15
13
13
14
+17.8
+52.2
+57.1
+17.2
NA
+22.5
+23.7
+63.5
+24.6
+6.6
+15.0
+27.9
+8.5
NA
+12.0
+7.6
+18.4
+14.0
+9.0
+5.3
+5.1
+73.9 +51.4 +48.6
+27.5 +12.4 +25.4
+7.0
+9.1
+9.5
+5.2
+4.3
+6.3
+22.2
NSC +14.1
+16.4
+7.5
+6.3
+30.0 +12.9 +15.4
NSC
+8.9 +12.4
+2.5
+28.8
+13.4
+9.6
+7.2
+12.7
+8.0
+10.1
+8.3
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.
1
Based on period from most recent "specific" trough of each series to the latest month for which data are available.
The number is the same for each expansion. "Specific" trough and peak dates are shown in appendix table B.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
APPENDIX
Table A.--BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE DATES AND DURATION OF EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS
IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Business cycle
reference; dates
Trough
Cycle
Contraction
Expansion
(trough
(trough to Trough from Peak from
from preprevious
previous
peak)
vious peak)
peak
trough
Peak
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 186?
December 1870
March 1879
June 1857
October I860...
April 1865-....
June 1869
October 1873...
March 1882
XXX
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
March 188?
July 1890
January 1893...
December 1895-.
June 1899
September 1902.
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
30
22
XXX
XXX
40
18
34
36
48
30
28
36
99
52
101
38
13
10
17
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
May 19,07.'
January 1910...
January 1913*..
August 1918....
January 1920...
May 1923
23
13
24
23
2
18
33
19
12
44
46
43
35
Jl
28
56
32
36
62
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926...
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945..
November 1948..
July 1953
13
43
13
_S
11
36
40
64
63
M
48
41
34
93
52
45
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
July 1957
May I960.,
13
9
9
35
25
JI
44
34
48
34
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
18
8
J2
18
65
18
18
JA
JA
10
22
27
21
50
80
37
Ai
£L
50
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1919-1961
4 cycles, 1945-1961
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961
5
48
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II,
and Korean War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime
expansions.
4
'25 cycles, 1857-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
2
5
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
7 cycles', 1920-1960.
3
6
3 cycles, 1948-1960
2 cycles, 1948-1960.
Source:
National Bureau of Economic Research.
61
62
Appendix
Table B.--"SPECIFIC" TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
"Specific" trough and peak dates are the actual dates that each' series reaches its trough and peak. "Reference" dates
are those dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole.
This table shows, for selected
leading and coincident series, the specific dates related to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
"Specific" trough dates for reference expansions beginning in —
Selected series
Feb.
1961
April
1958
Aug .
1954
Oct. •
1949
June
1938
March
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1921
July
1924
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, prod, wrks., mfg. Dec. '60 Apr. '58
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial a;nd industrial bldgs... Apr.^l1 Jun. '58
13. Number of new business .incorporations
Jan. '61 Nov. '57
17. Price per unit of labor cost index. Mar . ' 61Apr. '58
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks.. Oct. '60 Dec. '57
23. Index of industrial mat. prices
Dec. '60 Apr. '58
24. Value of mfrs.' new orders, machinery and equipment industries . . . ' 60Feb. '58
Oct
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits. Dec. '60 Feb. '58
4
Apr. '54 Apr. ' 9 Jan. '38 Jul. '32 Apr. '28 Jul. '24 Feb . ' 21
NSC
Aug. ' 9 Sep. '38 Oct. '32 Sep. '27 Jul. '24 Mar. '21
4
NSC
Dec. '53
Sep. '53
Feb. '54
Feb. ' 9 Sep. '39
4
May ' 9 NA
4
Jun. ' 9 Apr. '38
4
Jun . ' 49Jun. '38
Dec. '34
NA
Jun. '32
Jul. '32
Dec. '26 Jun . ' 24Jan. '21
NA
NA
NA
NSC
Oct. '23 Aug. '21
Aug . ' 28Jun . ' 24Jul. '21
4
Jan. '54 Apr. ' 9 NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Aug. '54
Sep. '54
Mar. '54
2ndQ '54
2ndQ '54
NSC
Mar. '54
Oct. ' 9
4
Oct. ' 9
4
Oct. ' 9
4
2ndQ ' 9
4
2ndQ ' 9
4
Aug. ' 9
4
Oct. ' 9
4
Jun. '38
Jun. '38
May '38
2ndQ '38
NA
May '38
May '38
Mar. '33
May '33
Jul. '32
IstQ '33
NA
Apr. '33
Mar. '33
Jan. '28
NA
Nov. '27
NSC
NA
NSC
4thQ '26
Jul. '24
NA
Jul. '24
NSC
NA
Jun. '24
2ndQ '24
Jul. '21
NA
Apr. '21
4thQ '21
NA
Jul. '21
2ndQ '21
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments
Feb. '61
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) May '61
47. Index of industrial production
..
Feb. '61
IstQ '61
49. GNF in current dollars (Q)
IstQ '61
50. GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)
51. Bank debits outside NYC
Dec.^O1
52. . Personal income
Feb. '61
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing and construction.
Feb. '61
54 . Sales of reta.il stores
Jan. '61
Apr. '58
Aug. '58
Apr. '58
IstQ '58
IstQ '58
Feb. '58
Feb. '58
Apr. '58 Aug. '54 Oct. ' 9 Jun. '38 Mar. '33 NA
4
Mar. '58 Jan . ' 54NSC
May '38 Mar. '33 NSC
NA
m
Oct. '24 Sep. '21
"Specific" peak dates for reference contractions beginning in —
Selected series
May
I960
July
1957
July
1953
Nov.
1948
May
1937
Aug.
1929
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan.
1920
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average ivorkvreek, prod, wrks., mfg.
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs...
13. Number of new business incorporations , . . . ,
17. Price per unit of labor cost index.
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks..
23 . Index of industrial mat . prices ....
24- Value of mfrj,.' new orders, machinery' and equipment industries..
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits.
Nov. '55 Apr. '53 NSC
May '59
1
Apr.^9 Mar. '56 NSC
Apr. ' 59
May '59
Jul.'59
Nov. '59
Feb. '56
Oct. '55
Jul.'56
Dec. '55
Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22 NA
Mar. ' 6 Jul .-'37 Jan. '29 Sep. '25 Aug. '22 Dec . ' 19
4
NSC
Jul. ' 6 Dec. '36
4
Jan . ' 51Jun. '48 NA
Jan . ' 53Jun . ' 48Feb. '37
4
Feb. '51 Jan. ' 8 Mar. '37
Jan. '29
NA
Sep. '29
Mar. '29
Oct. '25
NA
NSC
Nov. '25
Apr. '23 Dec. '19
NA
NA
Mar. '23 Jul. '19
Mar . ' 23 Apr. '20
Dec. '59 Nov. '56 Feb. '51 NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Nov. '58 Feb. '55 NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Jan. '26
NA
Mar. '27
NSC
NA
NSC
2ndQ '26
Jun. '23
NA
May '23
NSC
NA
May '23
IstQ '24
Jan. '20
NA
Feb. '20
NA
NA
Jul. '20
NA
NA
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number^ of employees in nonagricultural establishments
Apr. '60
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) Feb. '60
47. Index of industrial production
Jan. ' 0
6
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
2ndQ '60
50. GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)
2ndQ ' 0
6
51. Bank debits outside NYC
Aug.^O1
52 . Personal income
Oct. ' 0
6
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing and construction
May '60
54 . Sales of retail stores
Apr. '60
NA Not available.
NSC
tentative turning date.
Mar. '57
Mar. '57
Feb. '57
3rdQ '57
3rdQ '57
Aug. '57
Aug. '57
May '53
Jun. '53
JuT. ' 53
2ndQ '53
2ndQ '53
NSC
Oct. '53
Jul. ' 8 Jul. '37 Aug. '29
4
Jan. '48 Jul. '37 NA
Jul. '48 May '37 Jul. '29
4thQ ' 8 3rdQ '37 3rdQ '29
4
4thQ ' 8 NA
4
NA
Aug. ' 8 Mar '37 Aug, '29
4
Sep. '48 Jun. '37 Aug. '29
Jun. '57 Jul. '53 Sep. '48 May '37 Sep. '29 NA
Jul . ' 57 Jul. '53 NSC
Sep. '37 Sep. '29 NSC
No specific cycle related to reference dates.
NA
NA
Feb. '24 Jul. '20
Appendix
63
Table C.--AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR 55 MONTHLY AND
9 QUARTERLY BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
i/c
CI
Monthly series
I
C
1/5
for
MCD
span
MOD
Average duration of run
CI
I
C
9.82
8.35
8.67
7.59
4.26
4.53
4.53
5.16
MCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
.7
4
6.03
3.41
11.94
.24
2.08
1.35
5.45
1.67
2.55
2.33
1.92
2
3
3
3
.95
.92
• 55
.76
2.57
2.53
1.86
2.49
1.84
1.82
1.49
1.80
19-43
17.91
4.88
3.67
5
,81
1.66
1.49
7.10
3.37
6.98
6.12
3.16
1.94
2
.97
1.86
1.53
9.28
3.61
5.58
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries
.0
4
5-31
3.14
1.6
04
5.00
2.00
2.50
3
.75
1.94
1.48
10.64
3.34
1.47
12.82
3.56
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemploy6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery
5.55
2.19
2.53
3
.73
1.68
11.94
5.94
2.75
2.19
4.34
2.71
5
3
.80
.79
1.62
1.59
1.49
1.37
8.28
8.56
3.45
3.55
7.12
2.36
3.02
4
-.71
1.82
1.69
10.14
5.23
3-39
2.01
1.69
3
.67
2.29
1.67
11.46
44
.6
3-44
1.67
2.06
3
.60
1.93
1.53 12.43
3.70
15.46
2.57
7.29
1.30
2.12
1.98
3
3
.4
8
.65
2.71
2.19
1.80
1.69
10.64
9.31
4.08
3.50
16.05
2.81
5.71
6
(M
1.57
1.42
5.32
2.22
17.30
.93
, 2.58
17.36
.4
7
1.90
3.26
.4
4
1.49
5.33
1.68
1.28
6
3
2
I1)
.73
.79
1.54
2.52
2.40
1.39
2.12
1.73
6.21
8.94
13.55
2.82
4.68
3.36
6.17
5.53
2.76
2.00
3
.66
1.90
1.61
11.55
4.63
11.30
. . 2.15
.
S.12
1.39
7.20
1.52
1.13
.91
2
1
.77
.91
3.18
2.61
2.01
1.84
9.94
11.46
3.59
2.61
.39
.22
.29
.76
1
.76
3.41
2.04
10. U
3.41
.1
4
4-73
5.80
.32
3.46
4.62
.22
2.91
3.26
1.45
1.19
1.42
2
2
2
.72
.64
.67
1.94
2.44
2.05
1.62 15.73
1.68
7.67
1.38 10.50
5.63
2.80
4.12
.68
1
.68
3.47
2.44
.93
2.30
1.40
6.07
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial
12.37
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment.. 6.37
27. Buying policy — production materials, percent
7.56
reporting commitments 6 months or longer . . .
7. New private permanent nonfarm dwelling units
4.09
29. Index of new private housing units authorized
3.90
12. Net change in the business population,
12.15"
3.04
14. Current liabilities of business failures
15. Number of business failures with liabilities
of $100,000 and over
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
26. Buying policy— production materials, percent
16.32
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower
23 Index of industrial matGrials prices . .
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
42. Total nonagri cultural employment, labor force
3.44
3-48
4.37
45 • Average weekly insured unemployment r&te,
8.28
3.47
8.13
2.30
9.31
2.92
1.55 10.64
1.69 21.29
3.92
4.32
3.39
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in
3.28
2.26
.93
1.32
1.56
.9
6
,82
1.42
.3
4
.88
.70
.54
.93
2.03
.80
1
3
1
.93
.58
.0
8
3.92
1.82
3.39
1.12
1.58
.9
6
1.43
.4
8
.56
.82
2.55
1
4
.82
.70
3.63
1.84
1.80 13.55
1.67 8.77
3.63
3.56
.30
51 Bank debits outside NYC 343 centers . .
2.10
1
.11
.27
.41
1
.41
5.22
2.53
12.85
5.22
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
See footnotes at end of table.
Appendix
64
Table C.--AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR 55 MONTHLY AND
9 QUARTERLY BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
1/5
Monthly series
CI
I
C
I/O
MCD
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
MCD
CI
I
C
2.53
1.77
13.55
3.29
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
62. Index of wage and salary coat per unit *
.84
.4
6
.43
2
1.49
.88
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all
.0
4
.34
1
.34
7.84
2.16
13.55
7.84
• 49
.28
.84
1.12
.58
.25
1
1
.58
.25
6.48
8.79
2.61
2.29
13.55
18.56
6.48
8.79
.17
6.91
7.23
.23
1.31
1.46
.74
5.27
4.95
1
5
5
.74
.92
.96
4.48
1.47
1.70
2.18
1.39
1.52
19.89
7.59
5.96
4.48
2.30
2.55
3.72
3.39
3.02
3.52
Index of construction contracts, total value.. 8.29
8.06
Defense Department obligations, procurement... 25.35 24.41
Defense Department obligations, total
15-57 15.00
Military prime contract awards to U.S. busi29.19 29.33
1.52
1.32
2.22
4.97
2.88
2.23
2.29
3.63
4.91
5.21
3
3
4
6
.69
.79
.96
1.51
1.57
:.47
5
(M
.99
1.89
1.71
1.67
1.58
1.49
1.41
7.84
6.21
7.26
6.46
6.6?
4.08
3.06
2.93
2.44
2.40
6.21
4.72
6
(l)
1.61
1.50
5-38
2.76
2
3
2
1
2
3
3
.82
.87
.98
.93
.64
.80
.63
.72
2.91
2.41
3.44
3.92
2.46
2.20
2.27
3.37
1.95
1.93
2.27
2.92
1.62
1.70
1.67
1.77
17.11
15.40
15-50
9.31
17.78
17.00
22.00
23.57
5.28
6.91
6.13
3.92
4.08
5.09
9.50
3.37
.88
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of
finished goods, all manufae taring industries.
.99
66. Consumer installment debt, end of month
1.19
.27
OTHER U,,S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
82. Federal cash payments to the public
83. Federal cash receipts from the public
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments,
total
,
94.
90.
91.
92.
.28
7.17
7.49
1.51
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
121.
122.
123.
47.
125.
126.
OECD countries, index of industrial prod
United Kingdom, index of industrial prod
Canada, index of industrial production
United States, index of industrial production.
West Germany, index of industrial production..
France, indax of industrial production
1.32
1.29
.98
1.32
1.61
1.79
1.70
2.09
1.03
1.29
.88
.82
1.15
1.63
1.61
1.15
.68
.9
4
.52
.88
.98
.65
.81
1.60
1.51
2.63
1.69
.93
1.17
2.51
1.99
.72
CI
I
c.
1/5
r
1/5
Quarterly series
for
QCD
span
QCD
Average duration of run
CI
I
C
QCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602
manufacturing corporations
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales,
all manufacturing corporations
.
11.15
7.66
7.00
4.54
7.59
5.35
.92
.85
1
1
.92
.85
2.82
2.83
1.48
1.65
5.17
3.64
2.82
2.83
7.73
5.06
5.01
1.01
2
.51
2.83
1.42
5.67
3.85
1.44
1.88
1.60
.65
.9
6
.82
1.13
1.59
1.45
.58
.43
.57
1
1
1
.58
.43
.57
3.19
4-25
4.64
1.50
1.42
1.46
5.10
6.38
7.29
3.19
4.25
4.64
2.94
• 51
1
.51
4.64
1.55
5.67
4.64
.84
.71
1
.71
2.68
1.31
7.29
2.68
2.37
.82
1
.82
2.68
1.55
6.38
2.68
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars
49* Grosg national product in current dollars
57. Final sales (series 49 minus 21)
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment , total
63. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
gross national product
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities
3.61
1.02
2.96
1.49
.60
1.94
Appendix
65
NOTES FOR TABLE C
x
Not computed for series when MOD is "6" or more.
Revised; See "Important Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii.
2
The following are brief definitions of the measures shown in this table. More complete explanations appear in Business Cycle Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1, ch. 17, "Electronic
Computers and Business Indicators" by Juljius Shiskin (Princeton University Press: 1 6 )
91.
"CI" is the average month-to-month
(for_quarterly series, quarter-to-quarter)
percentage change, without regard to
sign, in the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, which is obtained by dividing the
cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series.
' C" is the same for the cyclical component which is a smooth,
flexible moving average.
"MCD" represents months for cyclical dominance. The average (without regard to sign) percentage changes in the irregular component and cyclical component are computed for 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans
(Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 5-month spans. MCD is the shortest span for which the average change (without regard
to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component.
Since changes are not computed for spans greater than 5 months, all series with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
MCD is small for smooth series and large for erratic series.
"QCD" represents quarters for cyclical dominance. It is
the shortest span (in quarters) for which the average change (without regard to sign) in cyclical component is larger
than the Irregular average (without regard to sign) in component.
"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted
series.
For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month span£ and for spans of the period of MCD.
When MCD is "6", no I/C
ratio is shown for the MCD period. For quarterly series, I/C is shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
"Average duration of run" is a measure of smoothness, and is equal to the average number of consecutive monthly
changes in the same direction in any series of observations.
When there is no change between 2 months, it is assumed
that the "no change" is a change in the same direction as the preceding change.
The average duration of run is shown
for the seasonally adjusted series CI, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD moving average. The MOD
moving average is a moving average (with the number of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally adjusted series. For quarterly series, average duration of run is the average number of consecutive quarterly changes in the same direction.
Appendix
66
Table D.-SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FACTORS, MAY 1961 TO JUNE 1962, FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES ADJUSTED
BY BUREAU OF THE CENSUS OR NBER
Series
May
1961
4. Number of persons on temporary
90.7
layoff, all industries
5. Av. weekly initial claims for
unemploy. insurance, State
83.0
9. Constr. contracts awarded for
commercial and indue, bldgs.... 110.7
104.7
13. No. of new business ineorp
14 . Cur. liabilities of bus . failures 95.7
15. No. of bus. failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over.. 96.9
18. Profits (before taxes) per dol.
of sales , all mf g. eorp.1
105.3
25. Chang© in mfrs.1 unfilled or2
ders, dur. goods industries ... 98.7
30. Nonagri. placements, all indus.. 108.1
45- Average weekly insured unemploy95.2
55. Index of wholesale prices, exc.
farm products and foods
100.0
81. Index of consumer prices
99.8
82. Federal cash payments to public. 102.4
83. Federal cash receipts from pub.. 114.3
90. Defense Department obligations —
procurement
75.9
91. Defense Dept. oblig. , total
88.0
92. Military prime contract awards
to U.S. business firms
94.4
125. W. Germany, index of indus. prod.. 102.5
128. Japan, index of 'Indus, prod
99.9
June
1961
July
1961
Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
1961 1961 1961 1961 1961
Jan. Feb. Mar.
1962 1962 1962
86.2 102.8 134.3
92.1
90.9
84.1 101.0
77.5
89.7 103.5 128.9 136.9 111.4
85.4
Apr. May
1962 1962
June
1962
89.0 106.1 105.2 118.2 98.1
86.8
90.5
85.9
99.8
98.2
82,7
83.9
98.9 113.6 117.0 106.1 110.3 95.4 84.4 83.5 71.6 100.9 108.4 110.8 98.3
1 4 . 2 99.9 95.4 90.2 95.7 84.6 100.3 118.1 93.1 110.1 103.7 104.7 104.3
0.
96.3 85.9 103.3 94.0 94.9 106.1 95.0 101.8 103.6 113.6 109.1 95.7 96.3
103.2 91.6 100.3
87.6
86.8 95.4 90.1 111.4 113-1 113.4 109.6 96.9 103.2
98.6
97.5
97.9
105.5
98.9 99.8 100.3 100.8 100.4 100.3 100.7 99.8 100.3 100.3 99.7 98.7 98.8
111.6 106.7 114.0 123.7 112.2 90.3 85.2 81.8 77.6 88.8 100.2 108.9 112.5
85.3 86.6 81.5 75.5 76.9
99.9
100.0
107.5
155.8
99.9 99.9 99.9
100.1 99.9 100.1
97.3 111.1 97.4
50.4 108.0 121.9
87.0 108.8 131.9 134-5 126.5 111.7 94. B 84.9
100.2 100.2
99.8 100.0
92.4 98.8
136.7 77.4
102.7 107.5
115.0 154. B
90.1 98.9 75.2 95.9 146.8 78.0
90.8 100.3 91.4 91.9 117.8 94.5
76.2 220.8
88.2 156.3
99.9 99.9 100.0
100.2 100.2 100.1
101.4 103.1 99.1
46.9 98.8 103.5
100.2
99.9
90.2
71.6
100.2
99.9
99.0
114.9
100.0
99.9
99.8 100 . 0
220.4 50.8
156.2 82.8
79.2 100.7
86.8 99.1
231.7
103.1
100.3
66.8 92.6 82.5 68. 6 115-3 80.5 80.0 125.6 94.7 94-5 229.2
93.0 101.5 103.7 109:5 101.4 94.5 96.2 100.1 101.1 102.5 103.3
96.6 98.6 100.0 98.7 102.9 93-9 101.5 108.7 99.9 99.9 100.4
68.5
94.0
99.3
84.1
98.8
NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were mado
by the Bureau of t'le Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the
source agency will be substituted whenever they are published.
Quarterly aerisa; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
s
The seasonal factors are applied to the unfilled orders series; then the change in unfilled orders is computed.
COMPLETE TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order. "M"
indicates monthly series and *Q" indicates quarterly series. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National
Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk (*) were included in the 1960 NBER list of 26 indicators.
29 NBER LEADING INDICATORS
30. Nonagrlcultural placements, all industries (M).—Department of
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M). —Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
5> Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Secu*
rity; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries
(M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
*7. New private permanent nonfarm dwelling units started (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings, floor space (M).--F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census
total (M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M).—
Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
15 NBEft ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (/^.--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
"41. Number of employees In nonagricultural establishments (M).--
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagrlcultural employment, labor force survey (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43. Unemployment rote, total (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census.
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rat*, State programs (M).--
Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M).—Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and F. W. Dodge
Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602 manufacturing cor-
porations (Q).--National Industrial Conference Board
M2, Net change in the business population, operating businesses
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun and Brad street,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).--Dun and Bradstreet
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Nationa
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
15. Number of business failures with liabilities of $100,000 and
over (M).—Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q).--Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
17. Price per unit of labor cost index (ratio of wholesale prices of
manufactured goods Index to wage and salary cost per unit of
output Index) (M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing
*19.
20.
*21.
*23.
24.
corporations (Q).—Federal Trade Commission and Securities
and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).--Standard and
Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment
Change In book value of manufacturers' inventories, purchased
material (M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuation adjustment (GNP Component) (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Index of industrial materials prices (M).—Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
Value of manufacturers* new orders, machinery and equipment industries (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census ,
from special tabulations of the Office of Business Economics
25. Change In manufacturers* unfilled orders, durable goods in-
dustries (M).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
26. Buying policy-production materials, percent reporting com-
mitments 60 days or longer (M).—National Association of
purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
27. Buying policy—capital expenditures, percent reporting com-
mitments 6 months or longer (M).—National Association of
Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
46. Index of help-wonted advertising in newspapers (M).--National
*47.
*49,
*50.
*51.
*52.
Industrial Conference Board and B. K. Davis and Bro. Advertising Service
Index of industrial production (M).--Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
Gross national product In current dollars (Q).--Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Bank debits outside New York City, 343 centers (M).--Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Personal income (M).--Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).—
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
54. Sales of retail stores (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census and Office of Business Economics
*55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities, other than farm
products and foods (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q),--Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of wage and salary cost per unit of output, total manufacturing (ratio of index of wage and salary disbursements ,in
manufacturing to index of industrial production, manufacturing) (M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
63* Index of labor cost per unit of output, total gross national product (ratio of compensation of employees to GNP In 1954 dollars) (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*64. Book value of manufacturers* Inventories, all manufacturing
industries (M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
65. Book value of manufacturers' Inventories of finished goods, all
manufacturing industries (M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*66. Consumer installment debt, end of month (M).—Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net
change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month
to obtain current figure (NBER seasonally adjusted data through
January 1955 used as base).
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (Q).--Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
Continued on reverse
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE TO AVOID
PAYMENT OF POSTAGE. S3OO
CGPO)
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
WASHINGTON, O. C.
OFFICIAL. BUSINESS
COMPLETE TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
15OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
121.
81. Index of consumer prices (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
82. Federal cash payments to the public (M).--Treasury Department,
Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President,
Bureau of the Budget.
Monthly seasonal adjustments by the
Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the
method of seasonal adjustment.
83. Federal cash receipts from the public (M).--Treasury Department,
Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President,
Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the
Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonal!}' adjusted series because of differences in the
method of seasonal adjustment,
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit (M).-Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts;, and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official
seasonally adjusted series because of differences in themeth"
od of seasonal adjustment.
85. Percent change In total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M).--OBoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).--Department of Comm^rlbe, Bureau of the Census
87. General Imports, 'total (M)."-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
88. Merchandise trado balance (series 86 minus series 87) (M).»
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
89. Excess of receipts or payments In U.S. balance of payments
(Q).--Departmem: of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
90. Defense Deportmont obligations, procurement (M).—Department
of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census
91. Defense Department obligations, total (M).--Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Cenfius
92. Military prime contract awards, U.S. business firms (MX—Department of Defimse, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
93. Free reserves (mismber bank excess reserves minus borrowings)
(M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no
seasonal adjustment
94* Index of construction contracts, total value (M).--F. W. Dodge
Corporation
95. Surplus or deficit, Federal income and product account (Q).»
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Countries, Index of industrial production (M).--Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).--Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
123. Canada, index of Industrial production <M),--Dominion Bureau
of Statistics, Ottawa
125. West Germany, Index of Industrial production (M).--Organization
for Economic Cooperation and Development; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
126. France, Index of industrial production (M).--Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development
127. Italy, index of Industrial production (M).--Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
128. Japan, Index of industrial production (M).--The Bank of Japan,
Statistics Department; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
... United States, Index of industrial production (M).-See series 47
DIFFUSION INDEXES
The *D* preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding business cycle series bear the same
number and are obtained from the same sources. See sources
above for Dl, D5, D6, Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, and D61.
Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D33. Profits, Chicago PAA (M).--Purchasing Agents Association of
Chicago; no seasonal adjustment
D34. Profits, Manufacturing, FNCB (Q).--First National City Bank of
New York; no seasonal adjustment of series components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
D35. Net sales, total manufactures (Q).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.;
no seasonal adjustment
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (Q).--Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
D48. Freight corloadlngs (Q).--Association of American Railroads;
no seasonal adjustment
D58. Wholesale prices, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment of series
components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
