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EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 a.m. EDT, Friday, October 27, 2023 Technical: Media: Lisa Mataloni (Personal Income) Kyle Brown (PCE Goods) Harvey Davis (PCE Services) Connie O'Connell (301) 278-9083 (301) 278-9086 (301) 278-9719 (301) 278-9003 BEA 23–50 piniwd@bea.gov pce@bea.gov Connie.OConnell@bea.gov Personal Income and Outlays, September 2023 Personal income increased $77.8 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in September, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (table 2 and table 3). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $56.1 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $138.7 billion (0.7 percent). The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent (table 5). Real DPI decreased 0.1 percent in September and real PCE increased 0.4 percent; goods increased 0.5 percent and services increased 0.3 percent (table 3 and table 4). 2023 May June July Aug. Sept. Percent change from preceding month Personal income: Current dollars Disposable personal income: Current dollars Chained (2017) dollars Personal consumption expenditures (PCE): Current dollars Chained (2017) dollars Price indexes: PCE PCE, excluding food and energy Price indexes: PCE PCE, excluding food and energy 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 Percent change from month one year ago 4.0 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 4.7 4.3 4.3 3.8 3.7 The increase in current-dollar personal income in September primarily reflected increases in compensation, personal income receipts on assets, nonfarm proprietors’ income, and rental income of persons (table 2). The $138.7 billion increase in current-dollar PCE in September reflected an increase of $96.2 billion in spending for services and a $42.5 billion increase in spending for goods (table 2). Within services, the largest contributors to the increase were other services (led by international travel), housing and utilities (led by housing), health care (led by hospitals and nursing homes), and transportation (led by air transportation). Within goods, other nondurable goods (led by prescription drugs) and motor vehicles and parts (led by new motor vehicles) were the leading contributors to the increase. Detailed information on monthly PCE spending can be found on Table 2.4.5U. Personal outlays, the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments, increased $175.1 billion in September (table 2). Personal saving was $687.7 billion in September and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.4 percent (table 1). Prices From the preceding month, the PCE price index for September increased 0.4 percent (table 5). Prices for goods increased 0.2 percent and prices for services increased 0.5 percent. Food prices increased 0.3 percent and energy prices increased 1.7 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Detailed monthly PCE price indexes can be found on Table 2.4.4U. From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for September increased 3.4 percent (table 7). Prices for goods increased 0.9 percent and prices for services increased 4.7 percent. Food prices increased 2.7 percent and energy prices decreased by less than 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.7 percent from one year ago. Real PCE The 0.4 percent increase in real PCE in September reflected an increase of 0.5 percent in spending on goods and an increase of 0.3 percent in spending on services (table 4). Within goods, the largest contributors to the increase were motor vehicles and parts (both new and used vehicles) and other nondurable goods (led by prescription drugs). Within services, the largest contributor to the increase was other services (led by international travel). Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found on Table 2.4.6U. Updates to Personal Income and Outlays Estimates have been updated for July and August. Revised and previously published changes from the preceding month for current-dollar personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2017) dollar DPI and PCE, are provided below. -2- Change from preceding month July Previous Revised (Billions of dollars) Personal income: Current dollars Disposable personal income: Current dollars Chained (2017) dollars Personal consumption expenditures: Current dollars Chained (2017) dollars Previous Revised (Percent) August Previous Revised Previous Revised (Billions of dollars) (Percent) 54.8 52.8 0.2 0.2 87.6 94.0 0.4 0.4 -1.6 -37.3 -5.5 -39.5 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 46.6 -27.4 51.8 -19.1 0.2 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 157.9 98.2 149.4 92.1 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.6 83.6 8.3 79.8 8.9 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 * * * Next release: November 30, 2023, at 8:30 a.m. EST Personal Income and Outlays, October 2023 Personal Income and Outlays Release Dates for 2024 Estimate Release Date December 2023 January 26, 2024 January 2024 February 29, 2024 February 2024 March 29, 2024 March 2024 April 26, 2024 April 2024 May 31, 2024 May 2024 June 28, 2024 June 2024 July 26, 2024 July 2024 August 30, 2024 August 2024 September 27, 2024 September 2024 October 31, 2024 October 2024 November 27, 2024 November 2024 December 20, 2024 -3- Additional Information Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes. Resources Additional Resources available at www.bea.gov: • • • • • • For more definitions, refer to the Glossary: National Income and Product Accounts. Stay informed about BEA developments by reading The BEA Wire, signing up for BEA’s email subscription service, or following BEA on X, formerly known as Twitter @BEA_News. Historical time series for these estimates can be accessed in BEA’s Interactive Data Application. Access BEA data by registering for BEA’s Data Application Programming Interface (API). For more on BEA’s statistics, refer to our online journal, the Survey of Current Business. BEA's news release schedule NIPA Handbook: Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts Statistical conventions Annual rates. Monthly and quarterly values are expressed at seasonally-adjusted annual rates (SAAR). Dollar changes are calculated as the difference between these SAAR values. For detail, refer to the FAQ “Why does BEA publish estimates at annual rates?” Month-to-month percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are not annualized. Quarter-to-quarter percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are displayed at annual rates. For detail, refer to the FAQ “How is average annual growth calculated?” and “Why does BEA publish percent changes in quarterly series at annual rates?” Definitions Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources: from participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or business, from the ownership of financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfers. It includes income from domestic sources as well as the rest of world. It does not include realized or unrealized capital gains or losses. Quantities and prices. Quantities, or “real” volume measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with a specified reference year equal to 100 (currently 2017). Quantity and price indexes are calculated using a Fisherchained weighted formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent periods (months for monthly data, quarters for quarterly data and annuals for annual data). For details on the calculation of quantity and price indexes, refer to Chapter 4: Estimating Methods in the NIPA Handbook. Disposable personal income is the income available to persons for spending or saving. It is equal to personal income less personal current taxes. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is the value of the goods and services purchased by, or on the behalf of, “persons” who reside in the United States. Chained-dollar values are calculated by multiplying the quantity index by the current-dollar value in the reference year (2017) and then dividing by 100. Percent changes calculated from real quantity indexes and chained-dollar levels are conceptually the same; any differences are due to rounding. Chained-dollar values are not additive because the relative weights for a given period differ from those of the reference year. In tables that display chained-dollar values, a "residual" line shows the difference between the sum of detailed chained-dollar series and its corresponding aggregate. Personal outlays is the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments. Personal saving is personal income less personal outlays and personal current taxes. The personal saving rate is personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income. Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is, at “market value.” Also referred to as “nominal estimates” or as “current-price estimates.” -4- Personal Income and Outlays News Release Tables Table 1. Table 2. Table 3. Table 4. Table 5. Table 6. Table 7. Personal Income and Its Disposition (Months) Personal Income and Its Disposition, Change from Preceding Period (Months) Personal Income and Its Disposition, Percent Change from Preceding Period (Months) Real Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product (Months) Price Indexes for Personal Consumption Expenditures: Level and Percent Change from Preceding Period (Months) Real Disposable Personal Income and Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: Percent Change from Month One Year Ago Price Indexes for Personal Consumption Expenditures: Percent Change from Month One Year Ago -5- October 27, 2023 Table 1. Personal Income and Its Disposition (Months) [Billions of dollars] Line 1 Personal income Compensation of employees 2 Wages and salaries 3 4 Private industries 5 Goods-producing industries 6 Manufacturing 7 Services-producing industries 8 Trade, transportation, and utilities 9 Other services-producing industries 10 Government Supplements to wages and salaries 11 1 12 Employer contributions for employee pension and insurance funds 13 Employer contributions for government social insurance 14 Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 Farm Nonfarm Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Personal income receipts on assets Personal interest income Personal dividend income Personal current transfer receipts Government social benefits to persons 2 Social security 3 Medicare Medicaid Unemployment insurance Veterans' benefits Other Other current transfer receipts, from business (net) Less: Contributions for government social insurance, domestic Less: Personal current taxes Equals: Disposable personal income Less: Personal outlays Personal consumption expenditures Goods Durable goods Nondurable goods Services 4 Personal interest payments Personal current transfer payments To government To the rest of the world (net) Equals: Personal saving Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income Addenda: Seasonally adjusted at annual rates 2023 r April May June July 22,815.8 22,893.1 22,941.5 22,994.3 14,103.8 14,169.9 14,241.5 14,298.1 11,690.4 11,748.3 11,810.4 11,857.8 9,987.2 10,037.3 10,091.8 10,123.9 1,831.9 1,842.7 1,854.5 1,864.4 1,080.3 1,084.5 1,094.9 1,098.3 8,155.3 8,194.7 8,237.4 8,259.5 1,805.4 1,805.9 1,820.0 1,823.8 6,349.8 6,388.8 6,417.4 6,435.7 1,703.2 1,711.0 1,718.6 1,733.9 2,413.3 2,421.5 2,431.1 2,440.3 1,604.7 1,609.4 1,615.0 1,621.3 Feb. 22,648.4 13,968.7 11,568.5 9,882.8 1,806.7 1,064.3 8,076.2 1,795.8 6,280.4 1,685.7 2,400.2 1,599.0 March 22,757.9 14,041.7 11,633.1 9,937.7 1,818.5 1,071.2 8,119.2 1,796.0 6,323.1 1,695.5 2,408.6 1,603.5 801.1 805.1 808.6 812.2 816.1 1,828.6 1,821.5 1,821.1 1,821.3 71.2 1,757.4 945.7 3,570.9 1,744.3 1,826.6 4,108.8 4,007.9 1,340.1 938.1 871.5 22.0 172.9 663.3 100.9 1,774.3 2,763.4 19,885.0 18,959.0 18,296.5 6,164.2 2,203.6 3,960.6 12,132.4 419.8 242.6 129.7 112.9 926.0 4.7 63.8 1,757.7 960.7 3,600.9 1,752.6 1,848.3 4,115.1 4,013.6 1,344.5 939.3 886.1 22.8 172.7 648.2 101.6 1,782.0 2,760.4 19,997.5 18,950.0 18,282.6 6,089.2 2,167.3 3,921.9 12,193.4 424.7 242.8 129.9 112.9 1,047.5 5.2 61.0 1,760.1 960.6 3,606.8 1,753.6 1,853.3 4,112.3 4,010.1 1,349.9 940.6 908.2 22.8 172.7 615.9 102.2 1,788.8 2,709.2 20,106.6 19,056.2 18,363.8 6,139.1 2,183.7 3,955.4 12,224.7 449.7 242.6 130.1 112.5 1,050.4 5.2 58.2 1,763.1 960.8 3,610.2 1,754.7 1,855.5 4,126.8 4,024.0 1,354.7 941.9 916.2 22.3 172.4 616.4 102.8 1,795.9 2,694.3 20,198.8 19,125.4 18,407.8 6,144.7 2,202.8 3,941.9 12,263.0 474.7 242.9 130.4 112.5 1,073.4 5.3 15,529.2 15,596.8 15,600.2 16,656.1 16,730.2 59,423 49,774 334,637 59,738 49,978 334,753 Line r p Aug. 23,088.3 14,366.2 11,916.2 10,171.0 1,874.4 1,103.0 8,296.7 1,833.0 6,463.7 1,745.2 2,450.0 1,627.2 Sept. 23,166.1 14,419.1 11,960.3 10,202.5 1,881.1 1,106.0 8,321.4 1,841.6 6,479.9 1,757.8 2,458.8 1,633.2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 819.0 822.7 825.6 13 1,829.9 1,835.9 1,846.9 1,854.7 14 55.5 1,774.4 961.8 3,590.7 1,756.1 1,834.7 4,121.3 4,017.8 1,356.7 943.3 909.8 21.6 172.5 613.8 103.5 1,803.8 2,716.7 20,224.8 19,228.3 18,485.4 6,150.1 2,194.2 3,955.9 12,335.3 499.8 243.1 130.6 112.5 996.5 4.9 54.4 1,781.5 967.2 3,605.1 1,773.3 1,831.8 4,097.5 3,993.4 1,358.2 944.8 892.5 21.1 172.7 604.2 104.1 1,809.6 2,775.0 20,219.3 19,383.1 18,634.9 6,186.8 2,206.9 3,979.9 12,448.0 502.3 245.9 130.9 115.0 836.3 4.1 53.4 1,793.5 974.6 3,624.2 1,790.8 1,833.4 4,093.7 3,989.0 1,361.8 946.3 880.5 21.1 172.9 606.4 104.7 1,817.2 2,817.2 20,271.1 19,464.5 18,714.7 6,230.4 2,199.3 4,031.1 12,484.3 503.6 246.2 131.2 115.0 806.7 4.0 52.3 1,802.4 981.7 3,643.5 1,808.4 1,835.1 4,090.1 3,981.3 1,364.1 947.9 875.0 20.8 173.0 600.4 108.9 1,823.1 2,838.9 20,327.3 19,639.5 18,853.4 6,272.9 2,221.5 4,051.3 12,580.5 539.6 246.5 131.5 115.0 687.7 3.4 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 15,636.1 15,654.8 15,685.9 15,708.9 15,720.3 45 16,770.5 16,829.7 16,823.2 16,783.7 16,764.6 16,751.4 46 60,041 50,079 334,880 60,293 50,236 335,013 60,343 50,194 335,163 60,297 50,051 335,329 60,421 49,969 335,501 60,556 49,904 335,675 47 48 49 Personal income excluding current transfer receipts, billions of chained (2017) dollars 5 Disposable personal income: 46 47 48 49 Total, billions of chained (2017) dollars Per capita: Current dollars Chained (2017) dollars 6 Population (midperiod, thousands) 5 p Preliminary r Revised 1. Includes actual employer contributions and actuarially imputed employer contributions to reflect benefits accrued by defined benefit pension plan participants through service to employers in the current period. 2. Social security benefits include old-age, survivors, and disability insurance benefits that are distributed from the federal old-age and survivors insurance trust fund and the disability insurance trust fund. 3. Medicare benefits include hospital and supplementary medical insurance benefits that are distributed from the federal hospital insurance trust fund and the supplementary medical insurance trust fund. 4. Consists of nonmortgage interest paid by households. Note that mortgage interest paid by households is an expense item in the calculation of rental income of persons. 5. The current-dollar measure is deflated by the implicit price deflator for personal consumption expenditures. 6. Population is the total population of the United States, including the Armed Forces overseas and the institutionalized population. The monthly estimate is the average of estimates for the first of the month and the first of the following month; the annual and quarterly estimates are averages of the monthly estimates. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis -6- October 27, 2023 Table 2. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Change from Preceding Period (Months) [Billions of dollars] Line 1 Personal income 2 Compensation of employees 3 Wages and salaries 4 Private industries 5 Goods-producing industries 6 Manufacturing 7 Services-producing industries 8 Trade, transportation, and utilities 9 Other services-producing industries 10 Government 11 Supplements to wages and salaries 12 Employer contributions for employee pension and insurance funds 1 13 Employer contributions for government social insurance 14 Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments 15 Farm 16 Nonfarm 17 Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment 18 Personal income receipts on assets 19 Personal interest income 20 Personal dividend income 21 Personal current transfer receipts 22 Government social benefits to persons 23 Social security 2 24 Medicare 3 25 Medicaid 26 Unemployment insurance 27 Veterans' benefits 28 Other 29 Other current transfer receipts, from business (net) 30 Less: Contributions for government social insurance, domestic 31 Less: Personal current taxes 32 Equals: Disposable personal income 33 Less: Personal outlays 34 Personal consumption expenditures 35 Goods 36 Durable goods 37 Nondurable goods 38 Services 39 Personal interest payments 4 40 Personal current transfer payments 41 To government 42 To the rest of the world (net) 43 Equals: Personal saving Addenda: 44 Personal income excluding current transfer receipts, 45 Feb. 123.1 83.4 73.8 64.5 2.2 -1.7 62.4 17.0 45.3 9.3 9.6 5.0 March 109.5 73.1 64.6 54.8 11.8 6.9 43.0 0.3 42.8 9.8 8.5 4.5 4.6 4.0 Seasonally adjusted at annual rates 2023 April May June July r 57.8 77.3 48.4 52.8 62.0 66.1 71.6 56.6 57.3 57.9 62.1 47.4 49.6 50.1 54.5 32.1 13.5 10.7 11.8 9.9 9.1 4.2 10.4 3.4 36.1 39.4 42.7 22.2 9.4 0.4 14.1 3.9 26.7 38.9 28.6 18.3 7.7 7.8 7.6 15.3 4.7 8.2 9.6 9.2 1.2 4.6 5.6 6.3 3.5 3.6 3.9 Line Aug. r 94.0 68.1 58.4 47.1 10.0 4.8 37.1 9.2 28.0 11.3 9.6 5.9 Sept. p 77.8 52.9 44.0 31.5 6.7 3.0 24.8 8.6 16.2 12.5 8.9 6.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2.9 3.8 2.9 13 -3.5 -7.1 -0.4 0.2 8.6 6.1 11.0 7.8 14 -7.5 4.0 14.9 -7.5 0.3 14.9 -2.8 2.4 0.0 -2.8 3.0 0.1 -2.8 11.3 1.0 -1.0 7.1 5.5 -1.0 12.0 7.3 -1.0 8.9 7.2 15 16 17 11.6 8.1 3.4 25.5 24.8 4.7 1.1 14.9 0.9 -0.2 3.5 0.7 8.8 -3.8 126.9 72.0 66.9 16.0 -10.1 26.1 51.0 4.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 54.9 30.0 8.3 21.7 6.4 5.7 4.5 1.2 14.6 0.8 -0.3 -15.1 0.7 7.7 -3.0 112.5 -9.0 -14.0 -75.0 -36.3 -38.7 61.0 4.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 121.5 6.0 1.0 5.0 -2.9 -3.5 5.4 1.3 22.0 0.0 0.0 -32.2 0.6 6.8 -51.2 109.1 106.1 81.3 50.0 16.5 33.5 31.3 25.0 -0.2 0.3 -0.4 2.9 3.4 1.2 2.2 14.5 13.9 4.8 1.3 8.0 -0.5 -0.3 0.5 0.6 7.1 -14.9 92.2 69.2 43.9 5.6 19.1 -13.5 38.4 25.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 23.0 -19.5 1.3 -20.8 -5.5 -6.1 2.1 1.4 -6.4 -0.7 0.1 -2.6 0.6 7.9 22.4 26.0 102.9 77.6 5.4 -8.6 14.0 72.3 25.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 -77.0 14.4 17.3 -2.9 -23.8 -24.4 1.4 1.5 -17.3 -0.5 0.1 -9.6 0.6 5.9 58.3 -5.5 154.7 149.4 36.8 12.7 24.0 112.7 2.5 2.8 0.3 2.5 -160.2 19.1 17.5 1.6 -3.8 -4.4 3.6 1.5 -11.9 -0.1 0.2 2.2 0.6 7.6 42.2 51.8 81.4 79.8 43.5 -7.7 51.2 36.3 1.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 -29.6 19.3 17.6 1.7 -3.6 -7.8 2.3 1.6 -5.6 -0.2 0.2 -6.0 4.2 5.9 21.7 56.1 175.1 138.7 42.5 22.3 20.2 96.2 36.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 -119.0 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 billions of chained (2017) dollars 5 33.1 67.7 3.4 35.9 18.7 31.1 23.1 11.3 44 Disposable personal income, billions of chained (2017) dollars 5 54.2 74.2 40.3 59.2 -6.5 -39.5 -19.1 -13.2 45 p Preliminary r Revised 1. Includes actual employer contributions and actuarially imputed employer contributions to reflect benefits accrued by defined benefit pension plan participants through service to employers in the current period. 2. Social security benefits include old-age, survivors, and disability insurance benefits that are distributed from the federal old-age and survivors insurance trust fund and the disability insurance trust fund. 3. Medicare benefits include hospital and supplementary medical insurance benefits that are distributed from the federal hospital insurance trust fund and the supplementary medical insurance trust fund. 4. Consists of nonmortgage interest paid by households. Note that mortgage interest paid by households is an expense item in the calculation of rental income of persons. 5. The current-dollar measure is deflated by the implicit price deflator for personal consumption expenditures. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis -7- October 27, 2023 Table 3. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Percent Change from Preceding Period (Months) Seasonally adjusted at monthly rates 2023 Line Feb. March April Based on current-dollar measures 0.5 0.5 0.3 1 Personal income 2 Compensation of employees 0.6 0.5 0.4 3 Wages and salaries 0.6 0.6 0.5 4 Supplements to wages and salaries 0.4 0.4 0.2 Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital 5 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 consumption adjustments 1.6 1.6 0.0 6 Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment 7 Personal income receipts on assets 0.3 0.8 0.2 8 Personal interest income 0.5 0.5 0.1 9 Personal dividend income 0.2 1.2 0.3 10 Personal current transfer receipts 0.6 0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.4 0.4 11 Less: Contributions for government social insurance, domestic -0.1 -0.1 -1.9 12 Less: Personal current taxes 0.6 0.6 0.5 13 Equals: Disposable personal income Addenda: 14 Personal consumption expenditures 0.4 -0.1 0.4 15 Goods 0.3 -1.2 0.8 16 Durable goods -0.5 -1.6 0.8 17 Nondurable goods 0.7 -1.0 0.9 18 Services 0.4 0.5 0.3 Based on chained (2017) dollar measures 19 20 Real personal income excluding transfer receipts Real disposable personal income 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.2 May Line June July r Aug. r Sept. p 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 1 2 3 4 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.7 5 6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 -0.5 0.1 -1.1 -0.1 0.4 0.4 1.0 -0.2 -0.6 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.1 -0.1 0.3 7 8 9 10 11 -0.6 0.5 0.8 0.1 2.1 0.0 1.5 0.3 0.8 0.3 12 13 0.2 0.1 0.9 -0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 -0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.7 -0.3 1.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.8 14 15 16 17 18 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 19 20 p Preliminary r Revised Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Table 4. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product (Months) Line 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 2023 Feb. March April May June July r Billions of chained (2017) dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) 15,325.5 15,295.4 15,316.9 15,337.4 15,376.3 15,468.5 Goods 5,360.2 5,307.2 5,336.3 5,348.4 5,357.2 5,403.6 Durable goods 2,031.1 1,999.5 2,012.6 2,025.4 2,024.6 2,051.0 Nondurable goods 3,338.6 3,316.0 3,332.3 3,332.4 3,341.6 3,362.5 Services 9,993.3 10,013.8 10,007.3 10,016.0 10,045.9 10,092.8 Change from preceding period in billions of chained (2017) dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) 8.0 -30.1 21.5 20.5 38.9 92.1 Goods 4.5 -53.0 29.2 12.1 8.8 46.4 Durable goods -5.9 -31.5 13.1 12.7 -0.8 26.4 Nondurable goods 9.8 -22.6 16.3 0.0 9.2 20.9 Services 3.5 20.5 -6.4 8.7 29.9 46.8 Percent change from preceding period in chained (2017) dollars, seasonally adjusted at monthly rates Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 Goods 0.1 -1.0 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.9 Durable goods -0.3 -1.6 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.3 Nondurable goods 0.3 -0.7 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.6 Services 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 p Preliminary r Revised Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis -8- Line Aug. r Sept. p 15,477.4 5,399.7 2,050.6 3,359.1 10,105.1 15,536.8 5,427.7 2,073.6 3,365.4 10,137.2 1 2 3 4 5 8.9 -3.9 -0.4 -3.4 12.4 59.4 27.9 23.0 6.4 32.0 6 7 8 9 10 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.1 0.2 0.3 11 12 13 14 15 October 27, 2023 Table 5. Price Indexes for Personal Consumption Expenditures: Level and Percent Change from Preceding Period (Months) Line 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2023 Feb. March April May June July r Chain-type price indexes (2017=100), seasonally adjusted Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) 119.386 119.530 119.893 120.020 120.221 120.471 Goods 114.994 114.730 115.038 114.882 114.794 114.489 Durable goods 108.507 108.400 108.514 108.772 108.390 107.615 Nondurable goods 118.618 118.259 118.685 118.279 118.369 118.349 Services 121.413 121.774 122.165 122.441 122.797 123.343 Addenda: PCE excluding food and energy 117.883 118.279 118.642 118.984 119.189 119.443 124.986 124.742 124.723 124.919 124.790 125.082 Food 1 142.819 137.598 138.727 133.395 134.192 134.296 Energy goods and services 2 118.106 118.258 118.584 118.698 118.814 118.989 Market-based PCE 3 116.166 116.611 116.932 117.292 117.400 117.568 Market-based PCE excluding food and energy 3 Percent change from preceding period in price indexes, seasonally adjusted at monthly rates Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 Goods 0.2 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 Durable goods -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.4 -0.7 Nondurable goods 0.4 -0.3 0.4 -0.3 0.1 0.0 Services 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 Addenda: PCE excluding food and energy 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.2 Food 1 -0.5 -3.7 0.8 -3.8 0.6 0.1 Energy goods and services 2 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 Market-based PCE 3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 Market-based PCE excluding food and energy 3 Line Aug. r Sept. p 120.917 115.378 107.259 119.995 123.552 121.348 115.567 107.147 120.368 124.110 1 2 3 4 5 119.583 125.394 142.455 119.424 117.648 119.940 125.769 144.816 119.954 118.108 6 7 8 9 10 0.4 0.8 -0.3 1.4 0.2 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.5 11 12 13 14 15 0.1 0.2 6.1 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 1.7 0.4 0.4 16 17 18 19 20 p Preliminary r Revised 1. Food consists of food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption; food services, which include purchased meals and beverages, are not classified as food. 2. Consists of gasoline and other energy goods and of electricity and gas services. 3. Market-based PCE is a supplemental measure that is based on household expenditures for which there are observable price measures. It excludes most imputed transactions (for example, financial services furnished without payment) and the final consumption expenditures of nonprofit institutions serving households. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Table 6. Real Disposable Personal Income and Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: Percent Change from Month One Year Ago 2023 Line Feb. 1 Disposable personal income 2 Personal consumption expenditures 3 Goods 4 Durable goods 5 Nondurable goods 6 Services 3.5 2.3 1.7 4.1 0.4 2.6 March April 4.4 1.7 0.4 2.0 -0.5 2.5 May 4.5 1.6 0.4 1.4 -0.1 2.2 June 5.0 1.8 1.3 4.0 -0.1 2.1 5.4 2.1 1.8 4.3 0.4 2.2 July r 4.2 2.6 2.9 4.8 1.8 2.5 Aug. r 3.7 2.3 2.4 4.4 1.2 2.2 Sept. p 3.5 2.4 2.4 5.5 0.8 2.4 Line 1 2 3 4 5 6 p Preliminary r Revised Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Table 7. Price Indexes for Personal Consumption Expenditures: Percent Change from Month One Year Ago Line Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) 1 2 Goods 3 Durable goods 4 Nondurable goods 5 Services Addenda: 6 PCE excluding food and energy 7 Food 1 8 Energy goods and services 2 9 Market-based PCE 3 10 Market-based PCE excluding food and energy 3 2023 5.2 3.6 0.3 5.5 6.0 4.4 2.0 0.4 2.8 5.7 4.4 2.2 0.5 3.1 5.6 4.0 1.2 0.4 1.6 5.4 3.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 5.1 July r 3.4 -0.2 -1.0 0.2 5.3 4.8 9.5 4.3 5.1 4.7 4.8 7.9 -7.6 4.3 4.7 4.8 6.9 -5.7 4.3 4.7 4.7 5.9 -12.3 3.8 4.6 4.3 4.7 -17.5 2.9 4.1 4.3 3.7 -13.0 3.0 4.0 Feb. March April May June Aug. r 3.4 0.7 -1.9 2.1 4.9 Sept. p 3.4 0.9 -2.3 2.7 4.7 3.8 3.1 -3.6 3.1 3.5 3.7 2.7 0.0 3.3 3.5 Line 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 p Preliminary r Revised 1. Food consists of food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption; food services, which include purchased meals and beverages, are not classified as food. 2. Consists of gasoline and other energy goods and of electricity and gas services. 3. Market-based PCE is a supplemental measure that is based on household expenditures for which there are observable price measures. It excludes most imputed transactions (for example, financial services furnished without payment) and the final consumption expenditures of nonprofit institutions serving households. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis -9-