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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
Second Quarter of 2015 (Advance)
July 30, 2015
This technical note provides background information about the source data and
estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release.
The complete set of estimates for the second quarter is available on BEA's Web site at
www.bea.gov. In a few weeks the Survey of Current Business, BEA's online monthly
journal, will publish a more detailed analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the Economy").
Real GDP
Real GDP increased 2.3 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter of 2015, following
an increase of 0.6 percent (revised) in the first quarter. The acceleration in real GDP
growth in the second quarter reflected an upturn in exports, an acceleration in
consumer spending, a deceleration in imports, and an upturn in state and local
government spending that were partly offset by downturns in inventory investment, in
nonresidential fixed investment, and in federal government spending and a
deceleration in residential fixed investment.
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
The advance GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2015 is based on source data that
are incomplete and subject to revision. Three months of source data were available for
consumer spending on goods; shipments of capital equipment; motor vehicle sales and
inventories; durable manufacturing inventories; exports and imports of goods; federal
government outlays; and consumer, producer, and international prices. Only two months
of data were available for most other key data sources; BEA’s assumptions for the third
month are shown in table A. Among those assumptions are the following:
•
•
no change in nondurable manufacturing inventories, and
an increase in non-motor-vehicle merchant wholesale and retail inventories.
Advance trade report. Today the Census Bureau is releasing for the first time “Advance
Report: U.S. International Trade in Goods,” a new monthly report providing more timely
statistics on exports and imports of goods. Today’s advance GDP estimates reflect these
advance trade statistics for June 2015. Thus, for the first time, BEA’s advance GDP
estimates incorporate Census data on exports and imports of goods for all three months.
(Previously, the advance GDP estimates were based on Census data for two months
and BEA assumptions for the third month.) We anticipate that the availability of these
earlier trade data will improve the accuracy of BEA’s initial estimates of net exports and
GDP.
Prices
The price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 2.2 percent in
the second quarter after decreasing 1.9 percent in the first. Excluding food and energy
prices, the PCE price index increased 1.8 percent after increasing 1.0 percent.
Disposable Personal Income
Real disposable personal income increased 1.5 percent in the second quarter, following
an increase of 3.8 percent in the first. The personal saving rate was 4.8 percent in the
second quarter, compared with 5.2 percent in the first.
Annual Revision
Today’s GDP news release presents results from the regular annual revision of the
national income and product accounts. The annual revision incorporates source data
that are more complete and reliable than those previously available. Shortly after the
GDP release, BEA will post a table on its Web site, www.bea.gov, showing the major
source data for the revisions. A detailed discussion of the results will be published in the
August issue of the Survey of Current Business.
This year’s revision includes revised estimates of GDP and gross domestic income
(GDI) beginning in 2012. In order to incorporate a new treatment of refundable tax
credits, the estimates of personal income and of government receipts and expenditures
are revised beginning in 1976. (This and other improvements were discussed in an
article in the June 2015 Survey.)
For this revision, BEA has incorporated the usual annual update of seasonal factors and
has also made improvements to the seasonal-adjustment methods for several
components of GDP and GDI, including federal defense spending, consumer spending
on services, and corporate profits. An updated FAQ, “How does BEA account for
seasonality in GDP?” describes some of the improvements made in this year’s annual
revision and BEA’s plans for longer-term projects to improve the seasonal adjustment of
GDP.
From the fourth quarter of 2011 to the first quarter of 2015, real GDP increased at an
average annual rate of 2.0 percent; in the previously published estimates, real GDP had
increased at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent.
From the fourth quarter of 2011 to the first quarter of 2015, real GDI increased at an
average annual rate of 2.3 percent; in the previously published estimates, real GDI had
increased at an average annual rate of 2.7 percent.
Revisions to GDP and GDI for 2015QI
For the first quarter of 2015, real GDP is now estimated to have increased 0.6 percent;
in the previously published estimates, first-quarter GDP was estimated to have declined
0.2 percent. The 0.8 percentage-point upward revision to real GDP reflected upward
revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, to inventory investment, to residential fixed
investment, and to federal government spending that were partly offset by a downward
revision to consumer spending. The revisions largely reflect revised seasonal
adjustments and the incorporation of revised Census construction spending data.
For the first quarter of 2015, real GDI is now estimated to have increased 0.3 percent, a
downward revision of 1.6 percentage points. The main source of revision was a
downward revision to wages and salaries for the first quarter, based on the incorporation
of preliminary quarterly census of employment and wages data from the Bureau of Labor
Statistics.
Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9606
Table A. KEY ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE ADVANCE
ESTIMATE OF GDP FOR THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2015
For many of the key series used to prepare the advance estimate of GDP, including retail sales, unit
automobile and truck sales and inventories, manufacturers' shipments of nondefense capital goods,
manufacturers' inventories of durable goods, exports of goods, imports of goods, federal defense
spending, and consumer, producer, and international price indexes, actual data are available for all
months of the quarter.
For the key series shown in this table, actual data for the third month of the quarter usually are not
available in time for inclusion in the advance GDP estimate. BEA makes assumptions for the source data
that are not yet available; assumptions for June 2015 are shown in the last column of the table. For most
series shown, the data for May are preliminary and subject to further revision. Occasionally, the data for
earlier months are also subject to revision.
All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are
published by the Census Bureau.
2015
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Jun.*
Private fixed investment:
Nonresidential structures:
1 Value of new nonresidential
construction put in place………………..
357.2
360.2
372.2
387.1
392.8
390.0
Residential structures:
Value of new residential
construction put in place:
2
Single family……………………………...
215.8
212.5
208.3
209.3
209.4
211.6
45.8
48.2
47.9
48.7
48.8
49.3
3
Multifamily…………………………….....
Change in private inventories:
NOTE: Historical (Jan.–Apr.) data reflect concurrent seasonal factors.
4 Change in inventories for nondurable
manufacturing…………………………….
-70.1
0.0
-10.1
2.4
11.0
0.0
5 Change in inventories for merchant
wholesale and retail industries other
than motor vehicles and equipment….
14.5
26.5
13.5
32.4
55.0
53.0
Government:
State and local:
Structures:
6
Value of new construction put
in place……………………………...
252.6
249.2
254.1
259.5
260.1
259.8
*Assumption.
7/30/2015 8:30 AM