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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
Second Quarter of 2009 (Advance)
July 31, 2009
This technical note provides background information about the source data and
estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news
release. The complete set of estimates for the second quarter is available on
BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also posted
on the Web site. In a few weeks, the estimates will be published in BEA's
monthly journal, the Survey of Current Business, along with a more detailed
analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the Economy").
Real GDP
Real GDP decreased 1.0 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter, following a
decrease of 6.4 percent (revised) in the first quarter. The smaller decrease in
real GDP in the second quarter than in the first reflected smaller decreases in
nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and inventory investment, upturns in
federal government and state and local government spending, and a smaller
decrease in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a smaller
decrease in imports and a downturn in personal consumption expenditures.
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
The advance GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2009 is based on source
data that are incomplete and subject to revision. Three months of source data
were available for consumer spending on goods; shipments of capital equipment
other than aircraft; motor vehicle sales and inventories; manufacturing durables
inventories; federal government outlays; and consumer, producer, and
international prices. Only two months of data were available for most other key
data sources; BEA’s assumptions for the third month are shown in table A.
Among those assumptions are the following:
•
•
•
•
a decrease in nondurable manufacturing inventories,
a decrease in non-motor-vehicle merchant wholesale and retail
inventories,
an increase in exports of goods, excluding gold, and
an increase in imports of goods, excluding gold.
Prices
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.7 percent in the
second quarter after decreasing 1.4 percent in the first quarter. Excluding food
and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.1
percent in the second quarter, after increasing 0.2 percent in the first.
Disposable Personal Income
Real disposable personal income (DPI) increased 3.2 percent in the second
quarter, following an increase of 1.1 percent in the first. The growth in DPI
reflected an increase in government social benefits and a decrease in personal
current taxes. The growth in government social benefits reflected the effects of
one-time economic recovery payments of $250 to recipients of social security,
supplemental security income, veterans’ pensions, and railroad retirement. The
decrease in personal current taxes reflected the Making Work Pay Credit
provision of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, which
reduced withheld taxes by about $50 billion in the second quarter, after reducing
them by about $4 billion in the first. Personal saving as a percent of disposable
personal income rose to 5.2 percent from 4.0 percent.
Comprehensive Revision
Today’s GDP news release presents results from the comprehensive revision of
the national income and product accounts. The revision reflects previously
announced changes in definitions, classifications, and presentation, and
incorporates source data that are more complete, more detailed, and otherwise
more reliable than those previously available. The reference year for chain-type
price and quantity indexes and chained-dollar estimates has been updated to
2005. A table showing the selected component detail and major source data for
the comprehensive revision is available on BEA's Web site at
http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipa_revisions_table_final.pdf. A detailed
discussion of the results will be published in the September issue of the Survey.
In the revised estimates real GDP increased 0.4 percent for 2008; in the
previously published estimates, real GDP had increased 1.1 percent. Revisions
to GDP growth for years prior to 2008 were smaller and reflected the
incorporation of benchmark source data, such as the 2002 Benchmark InputOutput Accounts and preliminary results of the 2007 Economic Census, as well
as regular annual source data.
From the fourth quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2009, real GDP decreased
2.8 percent (annual rate); in the previously published estimates it had decreased
1.8 percent. GDP in the first quarter of 2009 decreased 6.4 percent; in the
previously published estimates, it had decreased 5.5 percent. The revisions
reflected the effects of new weights from the benchmarking of the estimates,
updated seasonal adjustment, revised prices for deflation, and new
methodologies and source data.
Revised wages and salaries for 2009Q1
In the first quarter of 2009, wage and salary disbursements decreased $204.6
billion, or 11.9 percent; in the previously published estimates, they had
decreased $65.8 billion, or 4.0 percent. The revision reflected the incorporation
of preliminary first-quarter tabulations from the BLS quarterly census of
employment and wages for 13 states. The complete tabulations for all states are
scheduled to be incorporated in next month’s GDP release. BEA appreciates the
efforts of BLS and of the state employment offices that provided the early
tabulations in time for this month’s release.
Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9606
Table A. KEY ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE ADVANCE ESTIMATE OF GDP
FOR THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2009
For many of the key series used to prepare the advance estimate of GDP, including retail sales,
unit automobile and truck sales and inventories, manufacturers' shipments of nondefense
capital goods (other than aircraft), manufacturers' inventories of durable goods, federal defense
spending, and consumer, producer, and international price indexes, actual data are available for all
months of the quarter.
For the key series shown in this table, actual data for the third month of the quarter usually are not
available in time for inclusion in the advance GDP estimate. BEA makes assumptions for the source
data that are not yet available; assumptions for June 2009 are shown in the last column of the
table. For most series shown, the data for May are preliminary and subject to further revision.
Occasionally, the data for earlier months are also subject to revision.
All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are
published by the Bureau of the Census.
2009
Jan.
Private fixed investment:
Nonresidential structures:
1 Value of new nonresidential
construction put in place………..
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Jun.*
395.1
400.1
401.5
406.9
409.0
407.9
Equipment and software:
Manufacturers' shipments of
complete aircraft…………………..
47.7
34.9
38.2
38.5
36.2
33.9
Residential structures:
Value of new residential
construction put in place:
3
Single family………………………..
124.9
111.0
101.5
95.4
91.1
93.3
37.8
36.9
37.7
36.3
32.8
33.6
Change in private inventories:
5 Change in inventories for nondurable
manufacturing………………………..
-28.8
-28.3
-6.6
-24.7
-0.9
-9.0
5a Change in inventories for merchant
wholesale and retail industries other
than motor vehicles and equipment…
-50.4
-67.0
-80.2
-74.3
-60.2
-59.3
Net exports:
Exports of goods:
6 U.S. exports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis……………………
989.3
1012.3
990.9
960.0
984.6
988.5
6a
973.8
1000.3
976.9
949.3
970.3
976.3
1560.6
1458.8
1461.6
1439.1
1432.6
1467.3
Excluding gold……………………..
1554.9
1451.4
1452.7
1432.1
1425.9
1460.3
8 Net exports of goods………………….
-571.2
-446.6
-470.7
-479.1
-448.0
-478.8
8a
-581.2
-451.1
-475.8
-482.7
-455.6
-484.0
273.4
282.1
289.1
291.4
289.4
290.4
2
4
7
Multifamily…………………………..
Excluding gold………………………
Imports of goods:
U.S. imports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis...............…..…....
7a
Excluding gold……………………..
Government:
State and local:
Structures:
9
Value of new construction put
in place……………………………..
____________
*Assumption.