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Thursday, October 26, 2023 Contact: Connie O’Connell, (301) 278-9003 Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2023 (Advance) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2023, according to the “advance” estimate. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent. The increase in the third quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Contributions to Percent Change in Real GDP, Third Quarter 2023 Real GDP increased 4.9 percent Percentage point contributions 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 -1.00 Real GDP, percent change Consumer spending Inventory investment Exports State and local Federal government government spending spending Housing investment Business investment Imports * Note. Imports are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP; thus, an increase in imports results in a negative contribution to GDP. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Seasonally adjusted annual rates • The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both services and goods. Within services, the leading contributors were housing and utilities, health care, financial services and insurance, and food services and accommodations. Within goods, the leading contributors to the increase were other nondurable goods (led by prescription drugs) as well as recreational goods and vehicles. • The increase in inventory investment primarily reflected increases in manufacturing and retail trade. Compared to the second quarter, the acceleration in GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected accelerations in consumer spending, inventory investment, and federal government spending and upturns in exports and housing investment. These movements were partly offset by a downturn in business investment and a deceleration in state and local government spending. Imports turned up. Prices Gross domestic purchases prices, the prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. residents, increased 3.0 percent in the third quarter after increasing 1.4 percent in the second quarter. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 2.7 percent after increasing 2.1 percent. BEA data—including GDP, personal income, the balance of payments, foreign direct investment, the input-output accounts, and regional economic data—are available at www.bea.gov. Email alerts are also available. The “second” estimate of GDP for the third quarter of 2023, along with a preliminary estimate of Corporate Profits will be released on November 29, 2023. Percent Change Quarter-to-Quarter Change in Prices 9.0 Gross Domestic Purchases Price Index 8.0 Gross Domestic Purchases, Excluding Food and Energy 7.0 PCE Price Index 6.0 PCE, Excluding Food and Energy 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2022:Q2 2022:Q3 2022:Q4 2023:Q1 2023:Q2 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2023:Q3 Seasonally adjusted annual rates Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices increased 2.9 percent in the third quarter after increasing 2.5 percent in the second quarter. Excluding food and energy, the PCE “core” price index increased 2.4 percent after increasing 3.7 percent. Personal income and saving Real disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income adjusted for taxes and inflation—decreased 1.0 percent in the third quarter after increasing 3.5 percent in the second quarter. Current-dollar DPI increased 1.9 percent in the third quarter, following an increase of 6.1 percent in the second quarter. The increase in the third quarter reflected increases in compensation, proprietors’ income, personal income receipts on assets, and rental income of persons that were partly offset by a decrease in personal current transfer receipts. Personal saving as a percentage of DPI was 3.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with 5.2 percent in the second quarter. Percent Quarter-to-Quarter Change in Disposable Personal Income Real DPI (chained) Current-Dollar DPI Change 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 2022:Q4 2023:Q1 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2023:Q2 2023:Q3 Seasonally adjusted annual rates Page 2 of 2
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