The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
Gross Domestic Product
Third Quarter of 2016 (Advance Estimate)
October 28, 2016
This technical note provides background information about the source data and estimating methods
used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release. The complete set of estimates for
the third quarter is available on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also
posted on the Web site. In a few weeks, the Survey of Current Business, BEA’s online monthly journal,
will publish a more detailed analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the Economy").
Real GDP
Real GDP increased 2.9 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016, following an increase of 1.4
percent in the second quarter of 2016. The acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter reflected an
upturn in inventory investment, an acceleration in exports, a smaller decrease in state and local
government spending, and an upturn in federal government spending, that were partly offset by a
deceleration in consumer spending and an acceleration in imports.
The acceleration in exports was mostly attributable to an acceleration in exports of foods, feeds, and
beverages, mainly reflecting an increase in exports of soybeans. This increase in soybean exports was
largely offset by decreases in components of nonfarm and farm inventory investment, most notably in
merchant wholesale inventories of “farm product raw material.”
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
The advance GDP estimate for the third quarter of 2016 is based on source data that are incomplete and
subject to updates. Three months of source data were available for consumer spending on goods;
shipments of capital equipment; motor vehicle sales and inventories; durable goods manufacturing
inventories; wholesale and retail trade inventories; exports and imports of goods; federal government
outlays; and consumer, producer, and international prices. For major source data series for which only
two months of data are available, BEA’s key assumptions for the third month are shown in table A1.
Advance Economic Indicators Report
On October 26, the Census Bureau released the "Advance Economic Indicators Report" that included
newly available wholesale and retail trade inventories as well as exports and imports of goods for the
month of September. Today’s advance GDP estimates reflect these advance inventories and foreign
trade statistics (table A2).
Prices
The price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 1.4 percent in the third quarter,
following an increase of 2.0 percent in the second. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index
increased 1.7 percent after increasing 1.8 percent.
Disposable Personal Income
Real disposable personal income increased 2.2 percent in the third quarter, following an increase of 2.1
percent in the second. The personal saving rate was 5.7 percent in the third quarter, the same as in the
second quarter.
David B. Wasshausen
Chief, National Income and Wealth Division
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(301) 278-9715
-2-
Table A1. KEY ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE ADVANCE
ESTIMATE OF GDP FOR THE THIRD QUARTER OF 2016
For many of the key series used to prepare the advance estimate of GDP, including retail sales, unit
automobile and truck sales and inventories, manufacturers' shipments of nondefense capital goods,
manufacturers' inventories of durable goods, federal defense spending, and consumer, producer, and
international price indexes, actual data are available for all months of the quarter.
For the key assumptions shown in this table, actual data for the third month of the quarter usually are not
available in time for inclusion in the advance GDP estimate. BEA makes assumptions for the source data
that are not yet available; assumptions for September 2016 are shown in the last column of the table. For
most series shown, the data for August are preliminary and subject to further revision. Occasionally, the
data for earlier months are also subject to revision. (State and local government structures are no longer
available in this table because of changes in BEA seasonal adjustment methodology.)
All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are
published by the Census Bureau.
2016
Apr.
May
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.
Private fixed investment:
Nonresidential structures:
1 Value of new nonresidential
construction put in place…………..
409.1
415.9
419.8
424.2
422.4
423.3
Residential structures:
Value of new residential
construction put in place:
2
Single family…………………….......
243.3
240.1
238.6
237.9
235.6
233.7
58.9
60.3
60.4
60.5
62.0
61.5
5.4
-4.8
4.9
-3.9
3
Multifamily…………………………....
Change in private inventories:
NOTE: Historical (Apr.–Jul.) data reflect concurrent seasonal factors.
4 Change in inventories for nondurable
manufacturing…………………………
10/28/2016 8:30 AM
3.4
5.5
Table A2. ADVANCE ECONOMIC INDICATORS REPORT DATA FOR THE ADVANCE
ESTIMATE OF GDP FOR THE THIRD QUARTER OF 2016
For the key data shown in this table, advance data for the third month of the quarter are available from the Census
Bureau's Advance Economic Indicators Report for inclusion in the advance GDP estimate. For series shown, the
data for September are preliminary and subject to further revision.
All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars and seasonally adjusted at annual rates.
Jul.
Change in private inventories:
1 Merchant wholesalers………………….
2 Retail…………………..…………………
Net exports of goods:
3 U.S. exports of goods, Census basis…
4 U.S. imports of goods, Census basis…
10/28/2016 8:30 AM
-----------
123.8
182.5
2016
Aug.
Sep.
589.5
605.8
590.7
607.6
124.6
183.7
125.6
181.7