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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
Third Quarter of 2015 (Third Estimate)
December 22, 2015
This technical note provides background information about the source data and
estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release.
The complete set of estimates for the third quarter is available on BEA's Web site at
www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also posted on the Web site. In a few
weeks, the Survey of Current Business, BEA’s online monthly journal, will publish a
more detailed analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the Economy").
Sources of Revision to Real GDP
Real GDP increased 2.0 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter, a downward revision
of 0.1 percentage point from the second estimate. The revision to real GDP primarily
reflected a downward revision to inventory investment.
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The downward revision to inventory investment reflected downward revisions to
wholesale trade and to manufacturing industries, based on revised Census
inventory data for August and September.
Within personal consumption expenditures, a small downward revision to services was
mostly offset by a small upward revision to goods. The revision to services primarily
reflected newly available Census quarterly services survey data for the third quarter. The
revision to goods primarily reflected newly available data on gasoline from the Energy
Information Administration.
The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 1.3 percent in the third
quarter, unrevised from the second estimate.
Gross Domestic Income and Corporate Profits
Real gross domestic income (GDI), which measures the value of the production of goods
and services in the United States as the costs incurred and the incomes earned in
production, increased 2.7 percent in the third quarter, a downward revision of 0.4
percentage point. Real GDI increased 2.2 percent in the second quarter.
Profits from current production decreased $33.0 billion, or 1.6 percent (quarterly rate), in
the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $70.4 billion, or 3.5 percent, in the second.
Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $1.8 billion, profits of domestic
nonfinancial corporations decreased $11.8 billion, and rest-of-the-world profits
decreased $23.1 billion.
Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9606