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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
Third Quarter of 2013 (Second Estimate)
December 5, 2013
This technical note provides background information about the source data and
estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release.
The complete set of estimates for the third quarter is available on BEA's Web site at
www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also posted on the Web site. In a few
weeks, the estimates will be published in BEA's monthly journal, the Survey of Current
Business, along with a more detailed analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the
Economy").
Sources of Revision to Real GDP
Real GDP increased 3.6 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter, an upward revision of
0.8 percentage point from the advance estimate. The revision reflected upward revisions
to private inventory investment and to nonresidential fixed investment that were partly
offset by an upward revision to imports and a downward revision to exports.
•
•
•
The upward revision to private inventory investment primarily reflected upward
revisions to wholesale trade, to retail trade, to mining, utilities, and construction, and
to “other” industries. The revisions for wholesale and retail trade industries were
based primarily on the incorporation of newly available Census Bureau inventory
data for September and revised data for August. The revisions for mining, utilities
and construction and for “other” industries primarily reflected newly available
preliminary third-quarter Census Bureau quarterly financial report data.
The upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment primarily reflected an upward
revision to equipment, which was mainly based on newly available data for exports
and imports for September, revised exports and imports data for August, and revised
Census Bureau shipments data for September.
Both the upward revision to imports and the downward revision to exports were
mainly to goods and reflected newly available Census goods data for September and
revised data for August.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.8 percent in the third quarter,
the same increase as in the advance estimate.
Gross Domestic Income and Corporate Profits
Real gross domestic income (GDI), which measures the output of the economy as the
costs incurred and the incomes earned in the production of GDP, increased 1.4
percent in the third quarter. For a given quarter, the estimates of GDP and GDI may
differ for a variety of reasons, including the incorporation of largely independent
source data. However, over longer time spans, the estimates of GDP and GDI tend to
follow similar patterns of change.
Profits from current production increased $38.3 billion, or 1.8 percent (quarterly rate),
in the third quarter. Domestic profits of financial corporations increased $8.6 billion,
domestic profits of nonfinancial corporations increased $13.0 billion, and rest-of-theworld profits increased $16.7 billion.
Dividends paid by corporations decreased $179.7 billion in the third quarter, in
contrast to an increase of $273.5 billion in the second. The large third-quarter
decrease primarily reflected dividends paid by Fannie Mae to the federal government
in the second quarter.
Revisions to Wages and Salaries, Disposable Personal Income, and GDI
In addition to presenting revised estimates for the third quarter, today's release also
presents revised estimates of second-quarter wages and salaries, personal taxes, and
contributions for government social insurance. Wages and salaries are now estimated to
have increased $77.2 billion in the second quarter of 2013, an upward revision of $22.6
billion. These estimates reflect newly available wage and salary tabulations for the
second quarter from the BLS quarterly census of employment and wages (QCEW).
These data are more comprehensive than the monthly employment and earnings data
that were used for the earlier estimates—the QCEW data include irregular pay, such as
bonuses and gains from the exercise of stock options.
Real disposable personal income is now estimated to have increased 4.1 percent
(annual rate) in the second quarter and to have increased 2.9 percent in the third. (By
comparison, the estimates that were available last month showed an increase of 3.5
percent in the second quarter and an increase of 2.5 percent in the third.)
The revision to second-quarter wages and salaries also resulted in a revision to GDI.
Real GDI is now estimated to have increased 3.2 percent in the second quarter, an
upward revision of 0.6 percentage point.
Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9606
Table A.--SOURCE DATA FOR THE ADVANCE AND SECOND
ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR THE THIRD QUARTER OF 2013
This table shows the actual data used for the second estimate of GDP for the third quarter of 2013. For these
key series, actual data for September were not available in time for inclusion in the advance GDP estimate
released on November 7, 2013, and BEA made assumptions for these source data. Unless otherwise noted,
the numbers in brackets show the September values that had been assumed for the advance estimate. For
most series, the data incorporated for August and, in some cases, for July were preliminary, and the numbers
shown in brackets are the values used last month.
All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are published by
the Census Bureau.
2013
Apr.
May
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.
Private fixed investment: 1
Nonresidential structures:
1 Value of new nonresidential
construction put in place………..
291.6
295.7
289.2
302.9
{299.9}
303.2
{300.3}
300.2
{300.1}
Residential structures:
Value of new residential
construction put in place:
2
Single family………………………..
165.6
167.4
168.2
169.2
{169.0}
171.6
{171.8}
171.4
{175.3}
30.8
31.6
31.6
30.7
{31.3}
32.3
{32.2}
33.7
{32.9}
3
Multifamily…………………………..
Change in private inventories:
NOTE: Historical (Apr.–Jul.) data may reflect concurrent seasonal factors.
4 Change in inventories for nondurable
manufacturing………………………..
-1.1
{-1.1}
-2.9
{-2.9}
7.6
{7.6}
3.6
{3.6}
14.7
{14.7}
-6.6
{-5.2} *
7.0
{5.8}
-18.3
{-22.5}
-3.1
{-6.7}
39.2
{38.3}
35.2
{32.1}
59.4
{-7.6}
Net exports: 2
Exports of goods:
5 U.S. exports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis…………………….
1570.2
1559.8
1605.9
1593.6
5a
Excluding gold………………………
1525.2
1528.4
1570.6
1553.4
1590.1
{1589.2}
1560.5
{1559.6}
1587.5
{1611.6}
1565.9
{1576.7}
Imports of goods:
U.S. imports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis……………………..
2273.3
2317.3
2254.1
2290.0
2257.1
2298.7
2237.0
2274.8
2288.3
{2287.9}
2271.5
{2271.0}
2336.5
{2317.0}
2323.0
{2301.0}
7 Net exports of goods…………………..
-703.1
-757.5
-648.3
-696.4
7a
-731.9
-770.3
-666.5
-721.4
-698.2
{-698.6}
-711.0
{-711.5}
-749.0
{-705.4}
-757.1
{-724.3}
240.1
245.3
249.0
251.8
{249.6}
254.2
{251.6}
249.6
{250.6}
4a Change in inventories for merchant
wholesale and retail industries other
than motor vehicles and equipment…
6
6a
Excluding gold……………………..
Excluding gold……………………..
Government: 1
State and local:
Structures:
8
Value of new construction put
in place……………………………..
*Not an assumption; the advance estimate released on November 7, 2013 reflected data from the Census Bureau.
1. Source data shown for this component reflect Census Value of Construction Put in Place data released on
December 2, 2013.
2. Source data shown for this component reflect Census-BEA Trade in Goods and Services data released on
December 4, 2013.