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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
Third Quarter of 2010 (Second Estimate)
November 23, 2010
This technical note provides background information about the source data and
estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news
release. The complete set of estimates for the third quarter is available on BEA's
Web site at www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also posted on the
Web site. In a few weeks, the estimates will be published in BEA's monthly
journal, the Survey of Current Business, along with a more detailed analysis of
the estimates ("GDP and the Economy").
Sources of Revision to Real GDP
The real GDP growth rate in the third quarter was revised from 2.0 percent to 2.5
percent (annual rate). Upward revisions to consumer spending, to exports, and
to state and local government spending were partly offset by a downward
revision to inventory investment.
•
•
•
•
Consumer spending was revised up. The largest contributors to the
revision were “gasoline and other energy goods” and “net purchases of
used motor vehicles,” based on newly available gasoline data for August
from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and on newly available
retail sales and used motor vehicle registration data.
Exports were revised up, primarily based on newly available Census
goods data for September.
State and local government spending was revised up. The revision was
primarily to gross investment, reflecting newly available Census
construction spending data for September and revised data for July and
August.
Inventory investment was revised down. The largest contributor was
“mining, utilities, and construction” inventories, based on newly available
Census Quarterly Financial Report data for mining and on newly
available EIA data on natural gas, coal, and petroleum stocks for utilities.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.8 percent in the third
quarter, the same increase as in the advance estimate.
Corporate Profits
Profits from current production increased $44.4 billion, or 2.8 percent (quarterly
rate), in the third quarter, after increasing $47.5 billion, or 3.0 percent, in the
second.
Revisions to Wages and Salaries and Disposable Personal Income
In addition to presenting revised estimates for the third quarter, today's release
also presents revised estimates of second-quarter wages and salaries, personal
taxes, and contributions for government social insurance. Wage and salary
disbursements are now estimated to have increased $97.4 billion in the second
quarter, an upward revision of $46.3 billion. These estimates reflect newly
available wage and salary tabulations for the second quarter from the BLS
quarterly census of employment and wages. These data are more
comprehensive than the monthly employment and earnings data that were used
for the earlier estimates—the QCEW data include irregular pay, such as bonuses
and gains from the exercise of stock options.
Real disposable personal income is now estimated to have increased 5.6 percent
in the second quarter and 0.9 percent in the third. (By comparison, the estimates
that were available last month showed increases of 4.4 percent in the second
quarter and 0.5 percent in the third.)
Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9606
Table A.--SOURCE DATA FOR THE ADVANCE AND SECOND
ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR THE THIRD QUARTER OF 2010
This table shows the actual data used for the second estimate of GDP for the third quarter of
2010. For these key series, actual data for September were not available in time for inclusion in the
advance GDP estimate released on October 29, 2010, and BEA made assumptions for these source
data. The numbers in brackets show the September values that had been assumed for the advance
estimate. For most series, the data incorporated for August and, in some cases, for July, were
preliminary, and the numbers shown in brackets are the values used last month.
All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are
published by the Bureau of the Census.
2010
Apr.
Private fixed investment:
Nonresidential structures:
1 Value of new nonresidential
construction put in place………..
2
Equipment and software:
Manufacturers' shipments of
complete aircraft……………………
Residential structures:
Value of new residential
construction put in place:
3
Single family………………………..
4
Multifamily…………………………..
May
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.
274.1
267.3
263.0
252.3
{263.5}
254.3
{259.7}
250.3
{261.6}
33.2
28.4
32.1
47.9
40.0
{40.0}
31.8
{29.5}
120.1
119.5
117.7
115.1
{114.3}
110.5
{109.5}
107.7
{106.9}
13.9
13.2
13.3
13.8
{13.4}
12.5
{11.8}
12.9
{11.6}
Change in private inventories:
NOTE: Historical (April-July) data may reflect concurrent seasonal factors.
5 Change in inventories for nondurable
manufacturing………………………..
4.9
{3.0}
-54.2
{-55.8}
-35.3
{-33.0}
43.9
{38.4}
-7.9
{-8.9}
23.2
{24.0}
42.5
{37.6}
40.8
{36.9}
7.7
{4.2}
70.2
{66.1}
56.3
{51.6}
86.1
{92.2}
Net exports:
Exports of goods:
6 U.S. exports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis…………………….
1249.4
1285.3
1258.7
1291.9
6a
Excluding gold………………………
1232.6
1271.6
1245.1
Imports of goods:
U.S. imports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis……………………..
1882.4
1940.9
2005.4
1869.9
1929.5
1994.4
8 Net exports of goods…………………..
-633.0
-655.7
-746.7
8a
-637.0
-657.9
-749.3
273.9
270.8
276.7
5a Change in inventories for merchant
wholesale and retail industries other
than motor vehicles and equipment…
7
7a
Excluding gold……………………..
Excluding gold……………………..
Government:
State and local:
Structures:
9
Value of new construction put
in place……………………………..
1290.4 1290.7
{1292.4} {1275.4}
1274.7 1265.1 1273.2
{1267.0} {1257.4}
1952.9
1999.9 1973.2
{2000.3} {1981.9}
1942.8 1990.4 1961.8
{1990.8} {1972.0}
-661.0
-709.5
-682.5
{-707.9} {-706.6}
-668.1
-725.3
-688.6
{-723.8} {-714.6}
278.9
{276.0}
285.3
{283.5}
287.6
{279.7}