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Thursday, December 22, 2022 Contact: Connie O’Connell, (301) 278-9003 Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, Third Quarter 2022 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the third quarter of 2022, in contrast to a decrease of 0.6 percent in the second quarter. The increase in the third quarter primarily reflected increases in exports and consumer spending that were partly offset by a decrease in housing investment. The upturn in the third quarter, compared to the second quarter, primarily reflected accelerations in business investment and consumer spending, a smaller decrease in inventory investment, and upturns in state and local government as well as federal government spending that were partly offset by a larger decrease in housing investment. Imports turned down. For more details, including source data, refer to the Technical Note. GDP highlights The third-quarter increase in real GDP reflected increases in exports, consumer spending, business investment, and government spending that were partly offset by decreases in housing investment and inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. Contributions to Real GDP, Third Quarter 2022 Real GDP increased 3.2 percent Percentage point contributions 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 Real GDP, percent change Exports U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Consumer spending Imports Business State and local Federal investment government government spending spending Inventory investment Housing investment Seasonally adjusted annual rates • The increase in exports reflected both goods (led by industrial supplies and materials, “other” goods, and nonautomotive capital goods) and services (led by “other” business services and travel). BEA data—including GDP, personal income, the balance of payments, foreign direct investment, the input-output accounts, and regional economic data—are available at www.bea.gov. E-mail alerts are also available. The “advance” estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2022 and year 2022 will be released on January 26, 2022. • The increase in consumer spending reflected an increase in services (led by health care and "other" services) that was partly offset by a decrease in goods (led by motor vehicles and parts as well as food and beverages). • The increase in business investment reflected increases in equipment and intellectual property products that were partly offset by a decrease in structures. • The increase in government spending reflected increases in state and local as well as federal (both defense and nondefense spending). • The decrease in housing investment was led by new single-family housing construction and brokers’ commissions. • The decrease in private inventory investment was led by retail trade (mainly clothing and accessory stores, other general merchandise stores, and “other” retailers). • The decrease in imports reflected a decrease in goods (led by consumer goods) and services (led by transport). Updates to GDP The update from the “second” estimate primarily reflects upward revisions to consumer spending, business investment, and state and local government that were partly offset by downward revisions to inventory investment and exports. Personal income and saving Real disposable personal income (DPI)— personal income adjusted for taxes and inflation—increased 1.0 percent (revised) in the third quarter after decreasing 2.3 percent in the second quarter. Current-dollar DPI increased 5.4 percent (revised) in the third quarter, following an increase of 4.8 percent. The increase in current-dollar DPI for the third quarter primarily reflected increases in compensation, personal interest income, and nonfarm proprietors’ income. Percent Quarter-to-Quarter Change in Disposable Personal Income Real DPI Current Dollar DPI Change 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 -6.0 -7.0 -8.0 -9.0 -10.0 -11.0 2021:Q4 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2022:Q1 2022:Q2 2022:Q3 Seasonally adjusted annual rates Personal saving as a percentage of DPI was 2.7 percent in the third quarter, compared with 3.2 percent in the second quarter. Page 2 of 4 Corporate profits from current production Profits decreased less than 0.1 percent in the third quarter after increasing 4.6 percent in the second quarter. • Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased 0.8 percent after increasing 7.9 percent. • Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased 0.4 percent after decreasing 9.0 percent. • Profits from the rest of the world decreased 3.4 percent after increasing 5.8 percent. Corporate profits increased 5.5 percent in the third quarter from one year ago. Percent Change Quarter-to-Quarter Change in Corporate Profits 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 0.1 2021:Q2 2021:Q3 2021:Q4 2022:Q1 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 0.0 2022:Q2 2022:Q3 Seasonally adjusted quarterly rates Prices Gross domestic purchases prices, the prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. residents, increased 4.8 percent in the third quarter, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 5.0 percent, the same as previously published. Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) prices increased 4.3 percent in the third quarter, the same as previously published. Excluding food and energy, the PCE “core” price index increased 4.7 percent, revised up 0.1 percentage point. Percent Change Quarter-to-Quarter Change in Prices 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 Gross Domestic Purchases Price Index 3.0 Gross Domestic Purchases, Excluding Food and Energy 2.0 PCE Price Index 1.0 PCE, Excluding Food and Energy 0.0 2021:Q2 2021:Q3 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2021:Q4 2022:Q1 2022:Q2 2022:Q3 Seasonally adjusted annual rates Page 3 of 4 Gross domestic product by industry Today’s release includes estimates of GDP by industry, or value added—a measure of an industry’s contribution to GDP. Private services-producing industries increased 4.9 percent, government increased 0.6 percent, and private goods-producing industries decreased 1.3 percent. Overall, 16 of 22 industry groups contributed to the third-quarter increase in real GDP. • The increase in private services-producing industries primarily reflected increases in information (led by data processing, internet publishing, and other information services); professional, scientific, and technical services; and real estate and rental and leasing (led by real estate). Partly offsetting these increases were decreases in utilities as well as finance and insurance (led by Federal Reserve banks, credit intermediation, and related activities). • The increase in government reflected an increase in state and local government that was partly offset by a decrease in federal government. Percent Change Real GDP by Industry GDP Private Goods Private Services Government 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 2021:Q3 2021:Q4 2022:Q1 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2022:Q2 2022:Q3 Seasonally adjusted annual rates • The decrease in private goods-producing industries primarily reflected a decrease in construction that was partly offset by an increase in mining. Contributions to Percent Change in Real GDP by Industry Group, 2022:Q3 Real GDP increased 3.2 percent Private goods Private services Government Information Professional, scientific, and technical services Mining Real estate and rental and leasing Health care and social assistance Retail trade Wholesale trade Transportation and warehousing Arts, entertainment, and recreation State and local government Management of companies and enterprises Nondurable goods manufacturing Educational services Other services, except government Administrative and waste management services Accommodation and food services Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting Durable goods manufacturing Federal government Finance and insurance Utilities Construction -0.77 -0.02 -0.03 -0.05 -0.21 -0.31 0.59 0.50 0.43 0.39 0.39 0.38 0.33 0.25 0.13 0.08 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.88 Percentage points U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Seasonally adjusted annual rates Page 4 of 4
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