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Gross Domestic Product
Second Quarter of 2019 (Second Estimate)
August 29, 2019
This technical note provides background information about the source data and estimating methods
used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release. The complete set of estimates for
the second quarter is available on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is
also posted on the Web site. BEA's source data and assumptions for the "second" estimate are shown in
a "Key Source Data and Assumptions" table on the BEA Web site. In a few weeks, the Survey of Current
Business, BEA’s online monthly journal, will publish a more detailed analysis of the estimates ("GDP and
the Economy").
Sources of Revision to Real GDP
Real GDP increased 2.0 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter of 2019, a downward revision of 0.1
percentage point from the "advance" estimate. The revision reflected downward revisions to state and
local government spending, exports of goods and services, private inventory investment, and residential
investment. These revisions were partly offset by an upward revision to consumer spending.
•
Within state and local government spending, the downward revision reflected a downward
revision to gross investment in structures based on newly available and revised Census Bureau
Value of Construction Put in Place data.
•
Within exports, both goods and services were revised down. The largest contributor to the
revision in goods was petroleum and products, and the largest contributor to the revision in
services was travel. The revised estimates primarily reflected updated statistics from BEA’s
International Transactions Accounts.
•
The upward revision to consumer spending reflected revisions to goods and services. The
upward revision to consumer spending on goods largely reflected a revision to nondurable
goods based primarily on revised Census Monthly Retail Sales Report data. Within services, the
revisions were widespread; the largest contributor was household consumption of health care,
based on new second-quarter Census Advance Quarterly Services Report data.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, which measures private demand in the domestic
economy and is derived as the sum of consumer spending and private fixed investment, increased 3.5
percent in the second quarter, an upward revision of 0.3 percentage point.
Prices
BEA's featured measure of inflation in the U.S. economy, the price index for gross domestic purchases,
increased 2.2 percent in the second quarter, unrevised from the advance estimate.
The price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 2.3 percent, unrevised from the
advance estimate. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.7 percent, a
downward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the advance estimate.
Gross Domestic Income and Corporate Profits
Real gross domestic income (GDI), which measures output of the economy as the incomes earned and
costs incurred in the production of goods and services (as measured by GDP), increased 2.1 percent in
the second quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI increased 2.1 percent.
Profits from current production increased $105.8 billion, or 5.3 percent (quarterly rate), in the second
quarter, and increased 2.7 percent from the same quarter one year ago. Domestic profits of financial
corporations increased $4.0 billion, domestic profits of nonfinancial corporations increased $43.5 billion,
and rest-of-the-world profits increased $58.3 billion.
BEA’s profits measure that is conceptually most similar to S&P 500 profits—national after-tax profits
without inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments—increased $86.0 billion in the
second quarter. Second-quarter national after-tax profits (shown in line 11 of table 9 of the GDP news
release) increased 1.7 percent from the same quarter one year ago.
Revisions to Wages and Salaries in the First Quarter
In addition to presenting updated estimates for the second quarter, today's release presents revised
estimates of first-quarter wages and salaries, personal taxes, and contributions for government social
insurance. These estimates reflect revised wage and salary tabulations for the first quarter from the BLS
Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Wages and salaries are now estimated to have
increased $221.5 billion in the first quarter of 2019, an upward revision of $3.0 billion. Real GDI
increased 3.2 percent in the first quarter, unrevised from the previously-published estimate.
Erich H. Strassner
Associate Director, National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(301) 278-9612
-2-
@FedFRASER