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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
Second Quarter of 2013 (Second Estimate)
August 29, 2013
This technical note provides background information about the source data and
estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release.
The complete set of estimates for the second quarter is available on BEA's Web site at
www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also posted on the Web site. In a few
weeks, the estimates will be published in BEA's monthly journal, the Survey of Current
Business, along with a more detailed analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the
Economy").
Sources of Revision to Real GDP
Real GDP increased 2.5 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter, an upward revision
of 0.8 percentage point from the advance estimate. The revision reflected an upward
revision to exports, a downward revision to imports, and an upward revision to private
inventory investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to state and local
government spending.
•
•
•
Both the upward revision to exports and the downward revision to imports were
mainly based on newly available Census goods data for June and revised data for
May.
The upward revision to private inventory investment primarily reflected an upward
revision to retail trade industries and reflected newly available Census Bureau
inventory data for June.
The downward revision to state and local government spending primarily reflected a
downward revision to investment in structures, based on newly available Census
Bureau construction spending data for June and revised data for April and May.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.3 percent in the second
quarter, the same increase as in the advance estimate.
Gross Domestic Income and Corporate Profits
Real gross domestic income (GDI), which measures the output of the economy as the
costs incurred and the incomes earned in the production of GDP, increased 2.5
percent in the second quarter. For a given quarter, the estimates of GDP and GDI may
differ for a variety of reasons, including the incorporation of largely independent
source data. However, over longer time spans, the estimates of GDP and GDI tend to
follow similar patterns of change.
Profits from current production increased $78.3 billion, or 3.9 percent (quarterly rate),
in the second quarter. Domestic profits of financial corporations increased $14.3
billion, domestic profits of nonfinancial corporations increased $50.4 billion, and restof-the-world profits increased $13.6 billion.
Dividends paid by corporations increased $273.8 billion in the second quarter, in
contrast to a decrease of $103.8 billion in the first. The large second-quarter increase
primarily reflected dividends paid by Fannie Mae to the federal government.
Revisions to Wages and Salaries, Disposable Personal Income, and GDI
In addition to presenting revised estimates for the second quarter, today's release also
presents revised estimates of first-quarter wages and salaries, personal taxes, and
contributions for government social insurance. Wages and salaries are now estimated to
have decreased $46.2 billion in the first quarter of 2013, an upward revision of $10.7
billion. These estimates reflect newly available wage and salary tabulations for the first
quarter from the BLS quarterly census of employment and wages (QCEW). These data
are more comprehensive than the monthly employment and earnings data that were
used for the earlier estimates—the QCEW data include irregular pay, such as bonuses
and gains from the exercise of stock options.
Real disposable personal income is now estimated to have decreased 7.9 percent
(annual rate) in the first quarter and to have increased 3.2 percent in the second. (By
comparison, the estimates that were available last month showed a decrease of 8.2
percent in the first quarter and an increase of 3.4 percent in the second.)
The revision to first-quarter wages and salaries also resulted in a revision to GDI. Real
GDI is now estimated to have increased 2.4 percent in the first quarter, an upward
revision of 0.2 percentage point.
Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9606
Table A.--SOURCE DATA FOR THE ADVANCE AND SECOND
ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2013
This table shows the actual data used for the second estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2013. For these key
series, actual data for June were not available in time for inclusion in the advance GDP estimate released on
July 31, 2013, and BEA made assumptions for these source data. The numbers in brackets show the June values that
had been assumed for the advance estimate. For most series, the data incorporated for May and, in some cases, for
April were preliminary, and the numbers shown in brackets are the values used last month.
All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are published by the
Census Bureau.
2013
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Jun.
Private fixed investment:
Nonresidential structures:
1 Value of new nonresidential
construction put in place………..
283.4
284.2
285.3
291.6
{287.1}
293.3
{283.1}
290.8
{285.1}
Residential structures:
Value of new residential
construction put in place:
2
Single family………………………..
153.7
161.3
164.0
165.6
{165.7}
166.2
{166.3}
164.8
{166.2}
28.3
28.9
29.5
30.8
{31.0}
32.0
{31.8}
31.0
{31.8}
3
Multifamily…………………………..
Change in private inventories:
NOTE: Historical (Jan.–Apr.) data may reflect concurrent seasonal factors.
4 Change in inventories for nondurable
manufacturing………………………..
18.3
{19.2}
-5.6
{-5.4}
13.5
{13.6}
-1.9
{-1.9}
-3.2
{-2.0}
4.9
{-2.8}
112.7
{115.0}
-17.2
{-14.9}
-14.2
{-15.0}
5.3
{6.3}
-19.2
{-17.7}
-4.5
{-3.9}
Net exports:
Exports of goods:
5 U.S. exports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis…………………….
1567.6
1573.0
1551.1
1573.5
5a
Excluding gold………………………
1527.2
1529.2
1501.7
1528.6
1563.2
{1563.1}
1531.8
{1531.7}
1611.1
{1571.9}
1575.9
{1529.9}
Imports of goods:
U.S. imports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis……………………..
2304.8
2320.6
2215.9
2274.4
2284.5
2306.3
2200.2
2258.1
2317.8
{2324.4}
2299.3
{2305.9}
2249.1
{2299.8}
2232.0
{2280.2}
7 Net exports of goods…………………..
-737.3
-747.6
-664.8
-700.9
7a
-757.3
-777.1
-698.5
-729.6
-754.6
{-761.3}
-767.5
{-774.2}
-637.9
{-727.9}
-656.1
{-750.2}
241.4
244.7
241.6
240.1
{241.1}
240.1
{245.7}
237.6
{243.4}
4a Change in inventories for merchant
wholesale and retail industries other
than motor vehicles and equipment…
6
6a
Excluding gold……………………..
Excluding gold……………………..
Government:
State and local:
Structures:
8
Value of new construction put
in place……………………………..
@FedFRASER