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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
Second Quarter of 2010 (Second Estimate)
August 27, 2010
This technical note provides background information about the source data and
estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release.
The complete set of estimates for the second quarter is available on BEA's Web site at
www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also posted on the Web site. In a few
weeks, the estimates will be published in BEA's monthly journal, the Survey of Current
Business, along with a more detailed analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the
Economy").
Sources of Revision to Real GDP
Real GDP increased 1.6 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter (that is, from the
first quarter to the second), which was 0.8 percentage point less than last month’s
estimate. The downward revision to GDP reflected an upward revision to imports and
downward revisions to inventory investment and to exports that were partly offset by an
upward revision to consumer spending:
•
•
•
•
The upward revision to imports reflected newly available Census goods data for
June.
The downward revision to inventory investment primarily reflected a downward
revision to manufacturing inventories that was partly offset by an upward revision
to mining, utilities, and construction inventories. The revision to manufacturing
inventories reflected newly available Census manufacturing inventory data for
June and revised data for May. The revision to mining, utilities, and construction
inventories reflected newly available Census Quarterly Financial Report data on
mining and newly available natural gas, coal, and petroleum stocks data from the
Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The downward revision to exports reflected newly available Census goods data
for June.
The upward revision to consumer spending primarily reflected newly available
and revised electricity and natural gas usage and unit value data from EIA.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.1 percent in the second
quarter, unrevised from the advance estimate.
Corporate Profits
Profits from current production increased $72.7 billion, or 4.6 percent (quarterly rate), in
the second quarter, after increasing $148.4 billion, or 10.5 percent, in the first.
Revisions to Wages and Salaries and Disposable Personal Income
In addition to presenting revised estimates for the second quarter, today's release also
presents revised estimates of first-quarter wages and salaries, personal taxes, and
contributions for government social insurance. Wage and salary disbursements are now
estimated to have increased $6.5 billion in the first quarter, a downward revision of $12.3
billion. The estimates reflect newly available wage and salary tabulations for the first
quarter from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) quarterly census of employment and
wages. (Last month’s advance estimate of wages and salaries reflected BLS wage and
salary tabulations for 16 states.) These tabulations are more comprehensive than the
monthly employment and earnings data that were used for the earlier estimates--they
include the pay of supervisors and irregular pay, such as bonuses and gains from the
exercise of stock options.
Real disposable personal income is now estimated to have increased 1.3 percent in the
first quarter and to have increased 4.4 percent in the second quarter. (The estimates
that were available last month showed an increase of 1.7 percent in the first quarter and
also an increase of 4.4 percent in the second.)
Carol E. Moylan
Chief, National Income and Wealth Division
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9711
Table A.--SOURCE DATA FOR THE ADVANCE AND SECOND
ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2010
This table shows the actual data used for the "second" estimate of GDP for the second quarter of
2010. For these key series, actual data for June were not available in time for inclusion in the
advance GDP estimate released on July 30, 2010, and BEA made assumptions for these source
data. The numbers in brackets show the June values that had been assumed for the advance
estimate. For most series, the data incorporated for May and, in some cases, for April, were
preliminary, and the numbers shown in brackets are the values used last month.
All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are
published by the Bureau of the Census.
2010
Jan.
Private fixed investment:
Nonresidential structures:
1 Value of new nonresidential
construction put in place………..
2
Equipment and software:
Manufacturers' shipments of
complete aircraft……………………
Residential structures:
Value of new residential
construction put in place:
3
Single family………………………..
4
Multifamily…………………………..
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
Jun.
281.5
275.9
275.1
274.1
{277.2}
270.6
{275.6}
269.3
{276.4}
29.1
33.7
33.9
33.2
28.4
{27.2}
32.1
{31.4}
113.6
115.0
116.9
120.1
{120.6}
120.4
{121.5}
119.5
{118.3}
16.3
15.5
14.4
13.9
{13.9}
13.4
{13.1}
13.4
{12.7}
Change in private inventories:
NOTE: Historical (January-April) data may reflect concurrent seasonal factors.
5 Change in inventories for nondurable
manufacturing………………………..
16.6
{16.9}
38.1
{38.0}
4.5
{4.9}
8.5
{8.9}
-65.2
{-60.8}
-44.0
{13.5}
4.3
{4.9}
14.1
{14.6}
57.0
{56.0}
33.1
{30.7}
29.9
{34.0}
0.2
{22.0}
Net exports:
Exports of goods:
6 U.S. exports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis…………………….
1204.4
1201.7
1261.8
1250.9
6a
Excluding gold………………………
1185.5
1186.8
1241.8
Imports of goods:
U.S. imports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis……………………..
1771.5
1821.8
1890.1
1761.6
1813.2
1879.4
8 Net exports of goods…………………..
-567.2
-620.1
-628.3
8a
-576.2
-626.4
-637.6
265.0
261.3
269.6
5a Change in inventories for merchant
wholesale and retail industries other
than motor vehicles and equipment…
7
7a
Excluding gold……………………..
Excluding gold……………………..
Government:
State and local:
Structures:
9
Value of new construction put
in place……………………………..
1287.7 1259.7
{1286.4} {1278.6}
1234.1 1274.0 1246.1
{1272.8} {1264.2}
1881.4
1939.7 2004.1
{1939.9} {1976.9}
1868.6 1928.3 1992.2
{1929.4} {1965.5}
-630.5
-652.0
-744.4
{-653.5} {-698.3}
-634.4
-654.3
-746.2
{-656.6} {-701.3}
273.9
{273.5}
273.6
{275.1}
276.7
{274.3}