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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
Second Quarter of 2009 (Second Estimate)
August 27, 2009
This technical note provides background information about the source data and
estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release.
The complete set of estimates for the second quarter is available on BEA's Web site at
www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also posted on the Web site. In a few
weeks, the estimates will be published in BEA's monthly journal, the Survey of Current
Business, along with a more detailed analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the
Economy").
Sources of Revision to Real GDP
Real GDP decreased 1.0 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter (that is, from the
first quarter to the second), the same decrease as in the advance estimate that was
released last month. Upward revisions to exports, residential investment, consumer
spending, and government spending were offset by downward revisions to inventory
investment and to nonresidential investment:
•
•
•
•
The upward revision to exports reflected newly available Census goods data for
June and revised data for May.
The revisions to residential investment, to government spending, and to
nonresidential investment reflected newly available Census construction
spending (value put in place) data for June, revised data for April and May, and a
revised one-unit deflator from the Census Bureau.
The upward revision to consumer spending primarily reflected newly available
motor vehicle registrations data for June.
The downward revision to inventory investment reflected newly available Census
inventory data for June and revised data for May.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.5 percent in the second
quarter, a downward revision of 0.2 percentage point from the advance estimate. The
revision reflected a downward revision to the one-unit deflator from the Census Bureau.
Corporate Profits
Profits from current production increased $67.6 billion, or 5.7 percent (quarterly rate), in
the second quarter, after increasing $59.1 billion, or 5.3 percent, in the first.
Revisions to Wages and Salaries and Disposable Personal Income
In addition to presenting revised estimates for the second quarter, today's release also
presents revised estimates of first-quarter wages and salaries, personal taxes, and
contributions for government social insurance. Wage and salary disbursements are now
estimated to have decreased $235.7 billion in the first quarter, a downward revision of
$31.1 billion. These estimates reflect newly available wage and salary tabulations for
the first quarter from the Bureau of Labor Statistics quarterly census of employment and
wages. (Last month’s advance estimate reflected BLS wage and salary tabulations for
13 states.) These data are more comprehensive than the monthly employment and
earnings data that were used for the earlier estimates--they include the pay of
supervisors and irregular pay, such as bonuses and gains from the exercise of stock
options.
Real disposable personal income is now estimated to have increased 0.2 percent in the
first quarter and to have increased 3.8 percent in the second. (By comparison, the
estimates that were available last month showed an increase of 1.1 percent in the first
quarter and an increase of 3.2 percent in the second.)
Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9606
Table A.--SOURCE DATA FOR THE ADVANCE AND SECOND
ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2009
This table shows the actual data used for the "second" estimate of GDP for the second quarter of
2009. For these key series, actual data for June were not available in time for inclusion in the
advance GDP estimate released on July 31, 2009, and BEA made assumptions for these source
data. The numbers in brackets show the June values that had been assumed for the advance
estimate. For most series, the data incorporated for May and, in some cases, for April, were
preliminary, and the numbers shown in brackets are the values used last month.
All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are
published by the Bureau of the Census.
2009
Jan.
Private fixed investment:
Nonresidential structures:
1 Value of new nonresidential
construction put in place………..
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Jun.
395.1
400.1
401.5
401.5
{406.9}
400.0
{409.0}
397.9
{407.9}
47.7
34.9
38.2
38.5
35.8
{36.2}
36.0
{33.9}
124.9
111.0
101.5
95.1
{95.4}
91.3
{91.1}
93.5
{93.3}
37.8
36.9
37.7
35.6
{36.3}
33.0
{32.8}
30.6
{33.6}
Change in private inventories:
5 Change in inventories for nondurable
manufacturing………………………..
-28.8
-28.3
-6.6
-24.7
-2.4
{-0.9}
-5.8
{-9.0}
5a Change in inventories for merchant
wholesale and retail industries other
than motor vehicles and equipment…
-50.4
-67.0
-80.2
-74.3
-76.6
{-60.2}
-87.4
{-59.3}
Net exports:
Exports of goods:
6 U.S. exports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis…………………….
989.3
1012.3
990.9
960.0
6a
Excluding gold………………………
973.8
1000.3
976.9
949.3
985.0
{984.6}
970.7
{970.3}
1007.5
{988.5}
995.6
{976.3}
Imports of goods:
U.S. imports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis……………………..
1560.6
1458.8
1461.6
1439.1
1554.9
1451.4
1452.7
8 Net exports of goods…………………..
-571.2
-446.6
-470.7
8a
-581.2
-451.1
-475.8
273.4
282.1
289.1
2
Equipment and software:
Manufacturers' shipments of
complete aircraft……………………
Residential structures:
Value of new residential
construction put in place:
3
Single family………………………..
4
7
Multifamily…………………………..
7a
Excluding gold……………………..
Excluding gold……………………..
Government:
State and local:
Structures:
9
Value of new construction put
in place……………………………..
1431.7 1468.3
{1432.6} {1467.3}
1432.1 1425.0 1456.7
{1425.9} {1460.3}
-479.1
-446.8
-460.8
{-448.0} {-478.8}
-482.7
-454.3
-461.2
{-455.6} {-484.0}
291.7
{291.4}
293.0
{289.4}
295.8
{290.4}
@FedFRASER