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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
Second Quarter of 2008 (Preliminary)
August 28, 2008
This technical note provides background information about the source data and
estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release.
The complete set of estimates for the second quarter is available on BEA's Web site at
www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also posted on the Web site. In a few
weeks, the estimates will be published in BEA's monthly journal, the Survey of Current
Business, along with a more detailed analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the
Economy").
Sources of Revision to Real GDP
The real GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised from 1.9 percent to 3.3
percent (annual rate).
•
•
Exports were revised up and imports (which are a subtraction in the
calculation of GDP) were revised down, reflecting newly available Census
Bureau goods data for June.
Inventory investment was revised up, reflecting newly available Census
Bureau inventory data for June and revised data for May.
Corporate Profits
Profits from current production decreased $37.8 billion, or 2.4 percent (quarterly rate), in
the second quarter, after decreasing $17.6 billion, or 1.1 percent, in the first.
Revisions to Wages and Salaries and Disposable Personal Income
In addition to presenting preliminary estimates for the second quarter, today's news
release also presents revised estimates of first-quarter wages and salaries, personal
taxes, and contributions for government social insurance. Wage and salary
disbursements are now estimated to have increased $52.5 billion in the first quarter, a
downward revision of $20.2 billion. These estimates reflect newly available wage and
salary tabulations for the first quarter from the Bureau of Labor Statistics quarterly
census of employment and wages. These data are more comprehensive than the
monthly employment and earnings data that were used for the earlier estimates--they
include the pay of supervisors and irregular pay, such as bonuses and gains from the
exercise of stock options.
Real disposable personal income (DPI) is now estimated to have decreased 0.7 percent
(annual rate) in the first quarter and to have increased 11.4 percent in the second; the
second quarter increase reflects the rebate payments from the Economic Stimulus Act.
(By comparison, the estimates that were available last month showed a decrease of 0.1
percent in the first quarter and an increase of 11.3 percent in the second.)
Carol E. Moylan
Chief, National Income and Wealth Division
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9711
Table A.--SOURCE DATA FOR THE ADVANCE AND PRELIMINARY
ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2008
This table shows the actual data used for the preliminary estimate of GDP for the second quarter of
2008. For these key series, actual data for June were not available in time for inclusion in the
advance GDP estimate released on July 31, 2008, and BEA made assumptions for these source
data. The numbers in brackets show the June values that had been assumed for the advance
estimate. For most series, the data incorporated for May and, in some cases, for April, were
preliminary, and the numbers shown in brackets are the values used last month.
All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are
published by the Bureau of the Census.
2008
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Jun.
389.7
391.6
398.0
400.2
{404.3}
404.8
{405.3}
408.1
{404.8}
52.2
37.3
39.0
41.6
45.9
{46.2}
44.8
{42.6}
Residential structures:
Value of new residential
construction put in place:
3
Single family………………………..
233.8
214.9
212.3
203.6
{204.1}
197.5
{197.2}
190.3
{190.7}
4
43.3
43.9
44.0
44.3
{44.1}
44.5
{44.2}
44.3
{44.2}
62.5
20.7
22.7
-24.0
20.1
{17.4}
48.6
{22.8}
77.7
32.8
-4.5
80.0
39.8
{38.0}
58.2
{67.0}
Net exports:
Exports of goods:
6 U.S. exports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis…………………….
1256.2
1297.2
1260.4
1320.7
6a
Excluding gold………………………
1238.3
1270.7
1230.9
1296.1
Imports of goods:
U.S. imports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis……………………..
2098.0
2167.0
2081.2
2196.1
2087.4
2145.4
2059.8
2177.3
8 Net exports of goods…………………..
-841.8
-869.8
-820.8
-875.4
8a
-849.0
-874.7
-828.9
-881.2
268.5
269.4
278.6
278.9
{276.9}
Private fixed investment:
Nonresidential structures:
1 Value of new nonresidential
construction put in place………..
2
Equipment and software:
Manufacturers' shipments of
complete aircraft……………………
Multifamily…………………………..
Change in private inventories:
5 Change in inventories for nondurable
manufacturing………………………..
5a Change in inventories for merchant
wholesale and retail industries other
than motor vehicles and equipment…
7
7a
Excluding gold……………………..
Excluding gold……………………..
Government:
State and local:
Structures:
9
Value of new construction put
in place……………………………..
1332.0 1400.4
{1330.0} {1334.2}
1312.7 1387.2
{1310.8} {1316.5}
2197.3 2240.7
{2199.7} {2245.3}
2187.7 2231.0
{2190.0} {2234.7}
-865.3
-840.3
{-869.7} {-911.1}
-875.0
-843.9
{-879.2} {-918.2}
279.3
{278.4}
278.3
{277.7}