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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
Second Quarter of 2007 (Preliminary)
August 30, 2007
This technical note provides background information about the source data and
estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release.
The complete set of estimates for the second quarter is available on BEA's Web site at
www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also posted on the Web site. In a few
weeks, the estimates will be published in BEA's monthly journal, the Survey of Current
Business, along with a more detailed analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the
Economy").
Sources of Revision to Real GDP
The real GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised from 3.4 percent to 4.0
percent (annual rate).
•
•
Exports were revised up and imports were revised down, reflecting newly
available Census goods data for June.
Business investment in nonresidential structures was revised up, reflecting
newly available Census Bureau data on construction spending for June and
revised data for April and May.
Corporate Profits
Profits from current production increased $98.3 billion, or 6.4 percent (quarterly rate), in
the second quarter, after increasing $16.5 billion, or 1.1 percent, in the first.
Revisions to Wages and Salaries and Disposable Personal Income
In addition to presenting preliminary estimates for the second quarter, today's news
release also presents revised estimates of first-quarter wages and salaries, personal
taxes, and contributions for government social insurance. Wage and salary
disbursements are now estimated to have increased $141.4 billion in the first quarter, a
downward revision of $17.0 billion. These estimates reflect newly available wage and
salary tabulations for the first quarter from the Bureau of Labor Statistics quarterly
census of employment and wages. These data are more comprehensive than the
monthly employment and earnings data that were used for the earlier estimates--they
include the pay of supervisors and irregular pay, such as bonuses and gains from the
exercise of stock options.
Also reflecting the newly available BLS source data, wage and salary accruals (a
component of national income) are now estimated to have increased $91.4 billion in the
first quarter, an upward revision of $33.0 billion. The difference between the revisions to
wage accruals and to wage disbursements reflects a BEA adjustment of about $25
billion (revised down from the previous adjustment of about $50 billion) for bonus
payments that accrued in the fourth quarter of 2006 and were disbursed in the first
quarter of 2007. (Because the estimates for the fourth quarter of 2006 will not be
revised until the next annual revision in July 2008, the estimate for first-quarter wage and
salary accruals was based on the best quarter-to-quarter change.)
Real disposable personal income is now estimated to have increased 5.4 percent in the
first quarter and to have increased 0.1 percent in the second. (By comparison, the
estimates that were available last month showed an increase of 5.9 percent in the first
quarter and a decrease of 0.8 percent in the second.)
Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9606
Table A.--SOURCE DATA FOR THE ADVANCE AND PRELIMINARY
ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2007
This table shows the actual data used for the preliminary estimate of GDP for the second quarter of
2007. For these key series, actual data for June were not available in time for inclusion in the
advance GDP estimate released on July 27, 2007, and BEA made assumptions for these source
data. The numbers in brackets show the June values that had been assumed for the advance
estimate. For most series, the data incorporated for May and, in some cases, for April, were
preliminary, and the numbers shown in brackets are the values used last month.
All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are
published by the Bureau of the Census.
2007
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr.
May
Jun.
316.9
326.7
331.2
336.3
{333.6}
345.6
{343.1}
346.6
{338.4}
54.7
34.8
37.0
39.8
39.1
{39.1}
39.1
{38.4}
Residential structures:
Value of new residential
construction put in place:
3
Single family………………………..
344.3
333.1
330.9
326.9
{327.5}
321.3
{323.6}
316.8
{319.1}
4
53.9
53.1
52.7
51.1
{52.1}
51.3
{51.9}
51.6
{51.2}
-15.9
-0.3
8.5
13.1
22.0
{19.8}
13.5
{6.5}
23.5
57.9
6.1
50.8
44.9
{46.0}
26.8
{12.3}
Net exports:
Exports of goods:
6 U.S. exports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis…………………….
1085.9
1062.8
1092.7
1091.2
6a
Excluding gold………………………
1078.6
1055.5
1075.6
1073.4
Imports of goods:
U.S. imports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis……………………..
1861.4
1848.8
1941.6
1899.4
1856.8
1845.1
1926.4
1886.7
8 Net exports of goods…………………..
-775.5
-786.0
-848.9
-808.1
8a
-778.2
-789.6
-850.7
-813.3
255.9
253.8
258.4
260.3
{260.5}
Private fixed investment:
Nonresidential structures:
1 Value of new nonresidential
construction put in place………..
2
Equipment and software:
Manufacturers' shipments of
complete aircraft……………………
Multifamily…………………………..
Change in private inventories:
5 Change in inventories for nondurable
manufacturing………………………..
5a Change in inventories for merchant
wholesale and retail industries other
than motor vehicles and equipment…
7
7a
Excluding gold……………………..
Excluding gold……………………..
Government:
State and local:
Structures:
9
Value of new construction put
in place……………………………..
1121.3 1142.2
{1119.6} {1124.9}
1107.4 1124.5
{1105.7} {1115.0}
1943.1 1952.1
{1947.6} {1970.1}
1932.0 1947.0
{1936.6} {1963.8}
-821.8
-809.9
{-828.0} {-845.2}
-824.6
-822.5
{-830.8} {-848.9}
266.0
{265.8}
266.3
{263.1}