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EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 5:00 P.M. EST, Wednesday, December 1, 2021 Technical: Media: Christina Hovland (BEA) Jeannine Aversa (BEA) Tanya Harris Joshua (OIA) (301) 278-9076 (301) 278-9003 (202) 208-6008 BEA 21–61 Territories@bea.gov Jeannine.Aversa@bea.gov Tanya_Joshua@ios.doi.gov Gross Domestic Product for Guam, 2020 Gross Domestic Product by Industry and Compensation by Industry, 2019 Real gross domestic product (GDP) for Guam decreased 11.9 percent in 2020 after increasing 2.5 percent in 2019 (table 1.3), according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). These statistics were developed under the Statistical Improvement Program funded by the Office of Insular Affairs (OIA) of the U.S. Department of the Interior. GDP for 2020 The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in exports of goods and services and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) (table 1.4). These decreases were partly offset by increases in federal government spending, territorial government spending, and private fixed investment. Imports, a subtraction item in the calculation of GDP, declined. Guam: Contributions to the Percent Change in Real GDP, 2020 Percentage points 6.0 4.29 3.0 1.27 1.57 0.0 –3.0 –2.81 –6.0 –9.0 –12.0 –15.0 –18.0 –11.9% –16.17 GDP Personal consumption expenditures Private fixed investment Government spending Exports Note. Imports are a subtraction item. Thus, a decrease in imports results in a positive contribution to GDP. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Imports How to Interpret Contributions to Percent Change in Major GDP Components There is often interest in how much a specific GDP component contributes to the change in real GDP. BEA publishes this measure in news release table 1.4. The chart above shows both the percent change of total real GDP and the contributions (in percentage points) of each major component to that change. For example, exports accounted for –16.17 percentage points of the 11.9 percent decrease in real GDP in 2020. This means, all else equal, had exports neither increased nor decreased in 2020, real GDP would have increased 4.3 percent. Exports of goods and services decreased 74.1 percent. The decrease in exports was largely accounted for by exports of services, which consists primarily of spending by visitors. Visitor arrivals declined 80 percent according to data from the Guam Visitors Bureau, reflecting the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. PCE decreased 4.9 percent, reflecting declines in spending on both goods and services. Nonessential businesses throughout Guam were subject to mandatory reductions in operations due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Government spending increased 7.9 percent, reflecting growth in federal and territorial government spending. Federal government spending increased 7.5 percent, reflecting growth in construction spending and compensation of employees. U.S. Department of Defense construction was a notable source of growth, as progress continued on multiple U.S. military projects, including training and aircraft support facilities. Territorial government spending increased 8.5 percent, reflecting growth in government purchases of goods and services, construction spending, and compensation of employees. The growth in spending was supported by federal grant revenues, including Coronavirus Relief Fund payments. Private fixed investment increased 6.1 percent, reflecting growth in construction activity. Private-sector construction projects included a luxury hotel in Tumon Bay, a multimillion-dollar cold storage facility, and various residential projects. COVID-19 Impact on the 2020 Guam GDP Estimate The Guam economy was substantially affected by the COVID-19 pandemic due to its effects on spending by consumers, visitors, businesses, and governments. The U.S. government passed several laws to support and sustain businesses and individuals through the pandemic. However, the full effects of the pandemic cannot be quantified in BEA’s statistics for Guam, because the impacts are generally embedded in the data sources used to estimate the components of GDP. GDP by industry and compensation by industry for 2019 In 2019, GDP increased 2.5 percent. The newly available GDP by industry data, which are released on a 1-year lag, reveal that the private sector was the source of the growth in real GDP in 2019 (table 2.5). -2- Growth in the private sector was widespread; the largest increase was in accommodations, food services, and amusements, which increased 9.1 percent, reflecting growth in visitor spending (table 2.4). The government sector declined 0.7 percent in 2019, partly offsetting the growth in the private sector. The decline in the government sector primarily reflected a decline in the operating surplus of territorial government enterprises. Total compensation increased in 2019, reflecting growth in all industries shown (table 2.6). The largest contributor was the construction industry, which includes activities performed by private companies on behalf of the government sector. The accompanying news release tables present estimates for GDP and its major components, GDP by industry, compensation by industry, and estimates of gross domestic income. Updates to GDP and Related Estimates Estimates for 2018 and 2019 that were released on February 16, 2021, have been revised to incorporate updates to source data, including the following: • Average visitor expenditures by market from the Guam Visitors Bureau, • Tabulations of gross receipts taxes by industry from the Guam Department of Revenue and Taxation, • Audited financial statements for the Government of Guam and its independent agencies, • Tabulations of wage and personnel data provided by the U.S. Department of Defense, and • Wage and employment information from the U.S. Census Bureau County Business Patterns. The revised estimates exhibit a pattern of inflation-adjusted GDP growth similar to the previously published estimates (table 1.7). For more information on data sources underlying these estimates, see the appendix in “Territorial Economic Accounts for American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.” Next release: Fall 2022 Gross Domestic Product for Guam, 2021 Guam GDP by Industry and Compensation by Industry, 2020 -3- Additional Information Resources • • • • Guam expenditures that is accounted for by goods and services provided by the rest of the world. Stay informed about BEA developments by reading The BEA Wire, signing up for BEA’s email subscription service, or following BEA on Twitter @BEA_News. Historical time series for gross domestic product for the U.S. territories can be accessed at BEA’s website. For more on BEA’s statistics, see our monthly online journal, the Survey of Current Business. For upcoming economic indicators, see BEA’s news release schedule. Government consumption expenditures and gross investment, or “government spending,” measures the portion of GDP that is accounted for by the government sector. Government consumption expenditures consists of spending by government to produce and provide services to the public. Gross investment consists of spending by government for fixed assets that directly benefit the public or that assist government agencies in their production activities. Gross domestic income (GDI) is the sum of incomes earned and costs incurred in the production of GDP. In national economic accounting, GDP and GDI are conceptually equal. Definitions Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is, at “market value” (also referred to as “nominal estimates” or as “current-price estimates”). Gross domestic product (GDP) is the value of the goods and services produced by the Guam economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production. GDP is also equal to the sum of personal consumption expenditures, private fixed investment, change in private inventories, net exports of goods and services, and government consumption expenditures and gross investment. Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) measures the goods and services purchased by “persons”—that is, by households and by nonprofit institutions serving households—who are resident in Guam. Statistical conventions Quantities (“real” volume measures) and prices are expressed as index numbers with a specified reference year equal to 100 (currently 2012). Quantity and price indexes are calculated using a Fisher chain-weighted formula that incorporates weights from 2 adjacent years. “Real” dollar series are calculated by multiplying the quantity index by the current-dollar value in the reference year and then dividing by 100. Private fixed investment measures spending by private businesses, nonprofit institutions, and households on fixed assets in the Guam economy. Fixed assets consists of structures, equipment, and software that are used in the production of goods and services. Net exports of goods and services is the difference between exports of goods and services and imports of goods and services. Exports measures the portion of total Guam production of goods and services that is provided to the rest of the world. Imports measures the portion of total Chained-dollar values are not additive, because the relative weights for a given period differ from those of the reference year. -4- List of News Release Tables Table 1.1. Table 1.2. Table 1.3. Table 1.4. Table 1.5. Table 1.6. Table 1.7. Table 2.1. Table 2.2. Table 2.3. Table 2.4. Table 2.5. Table 2.6. Gross Domestic Product Real Gross Domestic Product, Chained Dollars Percent Change from Preceding Year in Real Gross Domestic Product Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product Percent Change from Preceding Year in Prices for Gross Domestic Product and Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Income Revisions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product Value Added by Industry Value Added by Industry as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product Real Value Added by Industry Percent Changes in Real Value Added by Industry Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product by Industry Compensation of Employees by Industry -5- Guam 1. Domestic Product and Income Table 1.1. Gross Domestic Product [Millions of dollars] Line Gross domestic product 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1 5,265 5,399 5,610 5,799 5,901 6,013 6,060 6,364 5,844 Personal consumption expenditures Goods Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Net foreign travel 2 3 4 5 6 7 3,206 1,765 635 1,130 2,332 -891 3,218 1,706 616 1,090 2,383 -870 3,260 1,711 598 1,113 2,489 -940 3,287 1,655 588 1,067 2,601 -969 3,384 1,693 611 1,083 2,726 -1,035 3,549 1,759 647 1,112 2,821 -1,031 3,613 1,808 641 1,167 2,880 -1,075 3,659 1,908 674 1,235 3,056 -1,305 3,546 1,525 574 951 2,276 -254 Private fixed investment 8 1,044 1,233 1,355 1,256 1,205 1,141 1,218 1,343 1,443 Net exports of goods and services Exports Goods Services Imports Goods Services 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 -2,033 1,004 107 896 3,037 2,395 642 -2,189 1,053 177 875 3,241 2,522 719 -2,282 1,057 112 945 3,339 2,559 780 -2,041 1,048 73 974 3,089 2,318 770 -1,917 1,119 78 1,040 3,036 2,272 764 -1,883 1,141 105 1,036 3,024 2,316 709 -2,087 1,165 83 1,082 3,252 2,475 777 -2,147 1,403 92 1,312 3,550 2,672 878 -3,005 371 68 303 3,375 2,404 971 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Territorial 16 17 18 3,048 1,911 1,138 3,137 1,907 1,230 3,276 1,980 1,296 3,297 2,027 1,270 3,229 2,009 1,220 3,205 1,903 1,302 3,316 1,987 1,328 3,509 2,173 1,336 3,859 2,371 1,489 Note. Detail may not add to total because of rounding. Guam Table 1.2. Real Gross Domestic Product, Chained Dollars [Millions of chained (2012) dollars] Line Gross domestic product 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1 5,265 5,354 5,450 5,495 5,505 5,554 5,514 5,654 4,984 Personal consumption expenditures Goods Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Net foreign travel 2 3 4 5 6 7 3,206 1,765 635 1,130 2,332 -891 3,227 1,725 632 1,092 2,383 -880 3,240 1,719 624 1,096 2,460 -940 3,301 1,696 632 1,065 2,563 -961 3,351 1,739 647 1,093 2,641 -1,032 3,441 1,773 660 1,114 2,687 -1,022 3,427 1,787 661 1,127 2,685 -1,047 3,443 1,888 710 1,180 2,789 -1,238 3,273 1,482 600 887 2,033 -236 Private fixed investment 8 1,044 1,225 1,331 1,230 1,181 1,095 1,139 1,235 1,310 Net exports of goods and services Exports Goods Services Imports Goods Services 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 -2,033 1,004 107 896 3,037 2,395 642 -2,186 1,065 180 886 3,251 2,543 707 -2,263 1,061 114 946 3,323 2,574 748 -2,158 1,044 76 966 3,202 2,473 727 -2,068 1,122 84 1,037 3,190 2,480 711 -1,958 1,140 112 1,028 3,098 2,470 638 -2,038 1,143 88 1,054 3,181 2,515 673 -2,122 1,342 96 1,244 3,465 2,737 734 -3,017 348 71 280 3,364 2,554 795 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Territorial 16 17 18 3,048 1,911 1,138 3,087 1,894 1,193 3,141 1,932 1,208 3,126 1,957 1,171 3,051 1,920 1,133 2,999 1,787 1,212 3,002 1,808 1,194 3,110 1,935 1,175 3,354 2,079 1,275 Guam Table 1.3. Percent Change from Preceding Year in Real Gross Domestic Product [Percent] Line Gross domestic product 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1 1.7 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.9 -0.7 2.5 -11.9 Personal consumption expenditures Goods Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Net foreign travel 2 3 4 5 6 7 0.7 -2.3 -0.5 -3.3 2.2 …….. 0.4 -0.3 -1.4 0.3 3.2 …….. 1.9 -1.4 1.4 -2.8 4.2 …….. 1.5 2.6 2.4 2.7 3.0 …….. 2.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 …….. -0.4 0.8 0.1 1.2 -0.1 …….. 0.5 5.6 7.4 4.7 3.9 …….. -4.9 -21.5 -15.4 -24.8 -27.1 …….. Private fixed investment 8 17.3 8.7 -7.6 -4.0 -7.3 4.1 8.4 6.1 Net exports of goods and services Exports Goods Services Imports Goods Services 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 …….. 6.1 67.2 -1.2 7.0 6.2 10.1 …….. -0.4 -36.3 6.8 2.2 1.2 5.8 …….. -1.6 -33.3 2.1 -3.6 -3.9 -2.8 …….. 7.5 9.9 7.3 -0.4 0.3 -2.2 …….. 1.5 34.1 -0.9 -2.9 -0.4 -10.3 …….. 0.3 -22.0 2.6 2.7 1.8 5.6 …….. 17.4 9.1 18.0 8.9 8.9 9.1 …….. -74.1 -25.4 -77.5 -2.9 -6.7 8.3 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Territorial 16 17 18 1.3 -0.9 4.9 1.7 2.0 1.3 -0.5 1.3 -3.1 -2.4 -1.9 -3.2 -1.7 -6.9 7.0 0.1 1.2 -1.4 3.6 7.0 -1.6 7.9 7.5 8.5 Guam Table 1.4. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product Line Percent change: Gross domestic product Percentage points: Personal consumption expenditures Goods Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Net foreign travel 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1 1.7 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.9 -0.7 2.5 -11.9 2 3 4 5 6 7 0.40 -0.76 -0.05 -0.71 0.96 0.20 0.23 -0.09 -0.15 0.06 1.42 -1.10 1.08 -0.41 0.14 -0.55 1.85 -0.36 0.86 0.73 0.24 0.49 1.35 -1.22 1.54 0.56 0.20 0.36 0.82 0.16 -0.23 0.23 0.02 0.22 -0.05 -0.42 0.27 1.66 0.77 0.89 1.84 -3.23 -2.81 -6.37 -1.60 -4.77 -12.88 16.45 Private fixed investment 8 3.43 1.97 -1.80 -0.86 -1.50 0.78 1.68 1.27 Net exports of goods and services Exports Goods Services Imports Goods Services 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 -2.89 1.15 1.35 -0.20 -4.04 -2.80 -1.24 -1.41 -0.08 -1.18 1.10 -1.33 -0.56 -0.77 1.81 -0.29 -0.65 0.36 2.10 1.71 0.39 1.54 1.34 0.12 1.22 0.20 -0.10 0.30 1.79 0.29 0.45 -0.16 1.50 0.15 1.34 -1.32 0.06 -0.38 0.44 -1.38 -0.71 -0.66 -1.38 3.35 0.12 3.22 -4.73 -3.56 -1.17 -14.60 -16.17 -0.36 -15.81 1.57 2.70 -1.13 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Territorial 16 17 18 0.74 -0.32 1.06 1.01 0.72 0.29 -0.27 0.44 -0.71 -1.35 -0.65 -0.70 -0.94 -2.37 1.43 0.06 0.37 -0.31 1.96 2.31 -0.35 4.29 2.51 1.77 Guam Table 1.5. Percent Change from Preceding Year in Prices for Gross Domestic Product and Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product Line Gross domestic product Personal consumption expenditures Gross domestic product Personal consumption expenditures 2012 2013 2014 1 3.4 0.8 2.1 2 4.7 -0.3 0.9 3 100.0 100.8 4 100.0 99.7 2015 2.5 2016 2017 [Percent] 1.6 2018 2019 2020 1.0 1.5 2.4 4.2 -1.0 1.4 2.1 [Index numbers, 2012=100] 102.9 105.5 107.2 108.3 2.2 0.8 1.9 109.9 112.6 117.3 100.6 105.4 106.3 108.4 99.6 101.0 103.2 Table 1.6. Gross Domestic Income [Millions of dollars] Line Gross domestic income 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1 5,265 5,399 5,610 5,799 5,901 6,013 6,060 6,364 5,844 Compensation of employees 2 2,909 2,970 3,098 3,239 3,264 3,335 3,379 3,557 3,465 Taxes on production and imports less subsidies 3 355 365 391 393 408 421 468 488 354 Gross operating surplus 4 2,001 2,064 2,121 2,167 2,229 2,257 2,213 2,319 2,025 Note. Detail may not add to total because of rounding. Table 1.7. Revisions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product Line 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Percent change: Revised Previously published 1 2 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.9 -0.7 -0.9 2.5 2.0 Percentage points: Revision 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 Guam 2. GDP by Industry Table 2.1. Value Added by Industry [Millions of dollars] Line Gross domestic product 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1 5,265 5,399 5,610 5,799 5,901 6,013 6,060 6,364 Private industries Construction Wholesale and retail trade Accommodations, food services, and amusements Other private 2 3 4 3,169 398 551 3,247 443 537 3,371 465 552 3,465 420 587 3,586 376 607 3,709 388 624 3,750 412 625 4,009 453 683 5 6 487 1,733 532 1,735 612 1,742 651 1,807 708 1,895 736 1,962 759 1,955 839 2,034 Government Federal Territorial 7 8 9 2,096 1,263 833 2,152 1,267 884 2,239 1,291 948 2,334 1,331 1,003 2,315 1,295 1,020 2,303 1,288 1,016 2,309 1,302 1,007 2,355 1,352 1,003 Note. Detail may not add to total because of rounding. Table 2.2. Value Added by Industry as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product [Percent] Line Gross domestic product 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Private industries Construction Wholesale and retail trade Accommodations, food services, and amusements Other private 2 3 4 60 8 10 60 8 10 60 8 10 60 7 10 61 6 10 62 6 10 62 7 10 63 7 11 5 6 9 33 10 32 11 31 11 31 12 32 12 33 13 32 13 32 Government Federal Territorial 7 8 9 40 24 16 40 23 16 40 23 17 40 23 17 39 22 17 38 21 17 38 21 17 37 21 16 Note. Detail may not add to total because of rounding. Guam Table 2.3. Real Value Added by Industry [Millions of chained (2012) dollars] Line Gross domestic product 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1 5,265 5,354 5,450 5,495 5,505 5,554 5,514 5,654 Private industries Construction Wholesale and retail trade Accommodations, food services, and amusements Other private 2 3 4 3,169 398 551 3,233 432 528 3,314 442 538 3,331 393 557 3,383 346 579 3,442 344 599 3,463 350 598 3,619 371 643 5 6 487 1,733 534 1,739 591 1,743 615 1,766 657 1,802 675 1,826 677 1,839 739 1,866 Government Federal Territorial 7 8 9 2,096 1,263 833 2,121 1,267 853 2,137 1,271 865 2,164 1,288 875 2,123 1,242 878 2,114 1,220 890 2,055 1,198 854 2,041 1,217 823 Table 2.4. Percent Changes in Real Value Added by Industry [Percent] Line Gross domestic product 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1 1.7 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.9 -0.7 2.5 Private industries Construction Wholesale and retail trade Accommodations, food services, and amusements Other private 2 3 4 2.0 8.7 -4.2 2.5 2.1 2.0 0.5 -11.0 3.5 1.6 -11.9 4.0 1.7 -0.6 3.4 0.6 1.7 -0.2 4.5 6.0 7.6 5 6 9.7 0.3 10.6 0.2 4.2 1.3 6.8 2.1 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.7 9.1 1.4 Government Federal Territorial 7 8 9 1.2 0.3 2.4 0.8 0.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 -1.9 -3.5 0.3 -0.4 -1.8 1.3 -2.8 -1.8 -4.1 -0.7 1.6 -3.6 Guam Table 2.5. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product by Industry Line Percent change: Gross domestic product (GDP) Percentage points: Private industries Construction Wholesale and retail trade Accommodations, food services, and amusements Other private Government Federal Territorial 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1 1.7 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.9 -0.7 2.5 2 3 4 1.22 0.66 -0.44 1.50 0.17 0.19 0.31 -0.91 0.35 0.94 -0.87 0.40 1.06 -0.04 0.35 0.37 0.11 -0.02 2.78 0.41 0.78 5 6 0.89 0.11 1.06 0.07 0.45 0.42 0.76 0.65 0.32 0.42 0.05 0.23 1.13 0.46 7 8 9 0.46 0.07 0.39 0.31 0.08 0.23 0.50 0.30 0.21 -0.75 -0.81 0.06 -0.17 -0.40 0.23 -1.08 -0.39 -0.69 -0.25 0.34 -0.60 Note. Percentage-point contributions do not sum to the percent change in real gross domestic product because of rounding and differences in source data used to estimate GDP by industry and the expenditures measure of real GDP. Table 2.6. Compensation of Employees by Industry [Millions of dollars] Line Total compensation 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1 2,909 2,970 3,098 3,239 3,264 3,335 3,379 3,557 Private industries Construction Wholesale and retail trade Accommodations, food services, and amusements Other private 2 3 4 1,391 186 298 1,420 213 294 1,494 227 307 1,573 213 330 1,639 193 350 1,722 193 367 1,755 208 367 1,874 263 401 5 6 243 664 260 653 278 681 306 724 328 767 339 823 344 836 371 839 Government Federal Territorial 7 8 9 1,518 843 675 1,550 844 706 1,604 866 738 1,666 902 764 1,625 864 760 1,613 857 755 1,625 874 751 1,683 924 760 Note. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.