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Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2022
(Second Estimate)
February 23, 2023
This technical note provides background information about the source data and estimating methods
used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release; a summary of "highlights" is available
on BEA's website at www.bea.gov.
Economic Conditions and Fourth-Quarter 2022 GDP
Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.7 percent (0.7 percent at a quarterly rate1) in the fourth
quarter of 2022, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent (0.8 percent at a quarterly rate) in the third
quarter. The increase occurred amid moderating inflation, low unemployment, continued supply-chain
uncertainties, and rising interest rates. The economic effects of these conditions cannot be quantified in
the GDP estimate for the fourth quarter of 2022 because the impacts are generally embedded in source
data and cannot be separately identified.
Real GDP decelerated in the fourth quarter, compared to the third quarter. The deceleration primarily
reflected a downturn in exports and decelerations in consumer spending, nonresidential fixed
investment, and state and local government spending. These movements were partly offset by an
upturn in private inventory investment, a smaller decrease in residential fixed investment, and an
acceleration in federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP,
decreased less in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter.
The increase in real GDP for the fourth quarter reflected increases in private inventory investment,
consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local
government spending that were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and exports.
Imports decreased.
Sources of Revision to Real GDP
The increase in fourth-quarter real GDP was revised down 0.2 percentage point from the “advance”
estimate. The updated estimates reflected downward revisions to consumer spending and exports that
were partly offset by upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and residential fixed
investment. Imports were revised up.
1 Percent changes in quarterly seasonally adjusted series are displayed at annual rates, unless otherwise specified. For more
information, refer to the FAQ Why does BEA publish percent changes in quarterly series at annual rates?.
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The revision to consumer spending reflected downward revisions to spending on both goods
and services.
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Within goods, the leading contributors to the downward revision were motor vehicles
and parts (mainly used light trucks), based primarily on updated used motor vehicle
prices from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS); food and beverages, based primarily on
revised Census Bureau Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) data; and "other"
nondurable goods (mainly tobacco and household supplies), reflecting new Nielsen
Company tobacco data and revised MRTS.
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Within services, downward revisions to outpatient health care (notably, physician
services), communication services (notably, cellular telephone services), and
transportation services (notably, motor vehicle rental) were the leading contributors.
The updated estimates primarily reflected new fourth-quarter Census Quarterly Services
Survey (QSS) data as well as updated company revenue data for motor vehicle rental
companies.
For both exports and imports, the revised estimates primarily reflected updated data from BEA’s
International Transactions Accounts as well as new and revised Census trade in goods data for
December.
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Within exports, the downward revision was to goods and mainly reflected a downward
revision to "other" goods that was partly offset by an upward revision to consumer
goods.
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Within imports, the upward revision primarily reflected a revision to services (notably,
transport services).
Within nonresidential fixed investment, the revised estimates primarily reflected upward
revisions to structures and intellectual property products.
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For structures, the upward revision was led by commercial and health care structures,
based primarily on new and revised Census Value of Construction Put in Place (VPIP)
data.
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All categories of intellectual property products were revised up. For software and
entertainment originals, the revision was based on new Census QSS data. For research
and development, the revision was based on R&D expenses reported on publicly traded
companies’ financial statements.
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The upward revision to residential fixed investment was led by multi-family structures, based on
new and revised Census VPIP data.
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Within private inventory investment, an upward revision to farm inventories (based primarily on
new Department of Agriculture data) was mostly offset by a downward revision to nonfarm
inventories (based on updated and new Census inventory data).
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Prices
BEA's featured measure of inflation in the U.S. economy, the price index for gross domestic purchases,
increased 3.6 percent in the fourth quarter, an upward revision of 0.4 percentage point from the
advance estimate. Excluding food and energy, gross domestic purchases prices increased 4.1 percent, an
upward revision of 0.3 percentage point.
The price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 3.7 percent in the fourth
quarter, revised up 0.5 percentage point from the advance estimate. Excluding food and energy, the
“core” PCE price index increased 4.3 percent, an upward revision of 0.4 percentage point. The leading
contributors to the upward revision were prices for both goods (led by used and new motor vehicles)
and services (led by nonprofit hospital expenses). The updated price estimates primarily reflect revised
BLS consumer and producer price data, as well as new BLS employment cost data. For a comparison of
PCE prices to BLS consumer price indexes, refer to NIPA Table 9.1U. Reconciliation of Percent Change in
the CPI with Percent Change in the PCE Price Index.
GDP for 2022
Real GDP increased 2.1 percent in 2022 (from the 2021 annual level to the 2022 annual level), compared
with an increase of 5.9 percent in 2021. The increase in real GDP in 2022 primarily reflected increases in
consumer spending, exports, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment that
were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and federal government spending.
Imports increased.
Measured from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2022, real GDP increased 0.9
percent during the period, compared with an increase of 5.7 percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to
the fourth quarter of 2021.
Updates to Third-Quarter Wages and Salaries
In addition to presenting updated estimates for the fourth quarter, today's release presents revised
estimates of third-quarter wages and salaries, personal taxes, and contributions for government social
insurance, based on updated data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment
and Wages program. Wages and salaries are now estimated to have increased $303.0 billion in the third
quarter, an upward revision of $115.2 billion.
Real gross domestic income is now estimated to have increased 2.8 percent in the third quarter, an
upward revision of 2.0 percentage points from the previously published estimate. The average of real
GDP and real GDI increased 3.0 percent, an upward revision of 1.0 percentage point. The personal
saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.2 percent in the
third quarter, an upward revision of 0.5 percentage point.
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More Information
The complete set of statistics for the fourth quarter is available on BEA's website, along with a table
presenting the "Key Source Data and Assumptions" that underlie the statistics. In a few weeks, the
Survey of Current Business, BEA’s online journal, will present a more detailed analysis of the estimates
("GDP and the Economy").
David B. Wasshausen
Acting Associate Director, National Economic Accounts
Chief, Expenditure and Income Division, National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(301) 278-9752
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