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Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2022
(Advance Estimate)
January 26, 2023
This technical note provides background information about the source data and estimating methods
used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release; a summary of "highlights" is available
on BEA's website at www.bea.gov.
Economic Conditions and Fourth-Quarter 2022 GDP
Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent (0.7 percent at a quarterly rate1) in the fourth
quarter of 2022, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent (0.8 percent at a quarterly rate) in the third
quarter. The increase occurred amid moderating inflation, low unemployment, continued supply-chain
uncertainties, and rising interest rates. The economic effects of these conditions cannot be quantified in
the GDP estimate for the fourth quarter of 2022 because the impacts are generally embedded in source
data and cannot be separately identified.
Real GDP decelerated in the fourth quarter, compared to the third quarter. The deceleration primarily
reflected a downturn in exports and decelerations in nonresidential fixed investment, state and local
government spending, and consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by an upturn in
private inventory investment, an acceleration in federal government spending, and a smaller decrease in
residential fixed investment. Imports decreased less in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter.
Key Source Data and Assumptions for the Advance Estimate
The advance estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter is based on source data that are incomplete and
subject to updates. Three months of source data were available for consumer spending on goods;
shipments of capital equipment; motor vehicle sales and inventories; manufacturing, wholesale, and
retail trade inventories; exports and imports of goods; federal government outlays; and consumer,
producer, and international prices. For major source data series for which only two months of data were
available, or for which data for the fourth quarter are not yet available, BEA’s assumptions were based
on a variety of sources, most notably: private high-frequency payment card transactions data; industry
and trade association reports that include volume data, such as health care patient visits and traveler
throughput, as well as recreation services revenues and event attendance. More information on the
1 Percent changes in quarterly seasonally adjusted series are displayed at annual rates, unless otherwise specified. For more
information, refer to the FAQ Why does BEA publish percent changes in quarterly series at annual rates?.
source data and BEA assumptions that underlie the fourth-quarter estimate is shown in the Key Source
Data and Assumptions table.
Real GDP and Related Aggregates
Real GDP increased 2.9 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter, following an increase of 3.2 percent
in the third quarter. The increase in real GDP reflected increases in private inventory investment,
consumer spending, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and
nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and
exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
•
Within private inventory investment, increases in manufacturing as well as mining, utilities, and
construction industries were partly offset by a decrease in retail trade industries. Within
manufacturing, the leading contributors were petroleum and coal products and chemical
manufacturing. The fourth quarter estimates were based primarily on Census Bureau inventory
data and Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) producer price indexes for all three months of the
quarter.
•
The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both services and goods. Within
services, increases were widespread and led by health care, housing and utilities, and "other"
services. Within goods, the leading contributor was motor vehicles and parts.
•
o
Within health care, the increase was led by outpatient services (notably, physician
services) and hospitals (notably, nonprofit hospitals), based primarily on BLS Current
Employment Statistics (CES) data as well as private trade data.
o
Within housing and utilities, both categories contributed to the increase. The increase in
housing primarily reflected data on housing completions from the Census Bureau.
Within utilities, the leading contribution was an increase in natural gas, based on Energy
Information Administration (EIA) usage data for October and EIA Short-Term Energy
Outlook projections for November and December.
o
The increase in spending on "other" services was led by personal care services, based on
BLS CES data.
o
The increase in motor vehicles and parts was led by an increase in new motor vehicles,
based primarily on unit sales data from Wards Intelligence.
The increase in federal government spending was led by nondefense, and primarily reflected a
decline in sales of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, based on data from the
Department of Energy. Within the National Economic Accounts, these sales are deducted from
government consumption expenditures; therefore, a decrease in sales results in a corresponding
increase in consumption expenditures. Because the oil sold by the government enters private
inventories, there is no direct net effect on GDP.
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•
The increase in state and local government spending primarily reflected an increase in
compensation of state and local government employees, based primarily on BLS employment
data.
•
Within nonresidential fixed investment, an increase in intellectual property products was partly
offset by a decrease in equipment.
o
The increase in intellectual property products mainly reflected an increase in software
(mainly prepackaged software), based primarily on BLS employment and wage data.
o
Within equipment, a decrease in information processing equipment (notably, computers
and peripherals as well as communications) was partly offset by an increase in
transportation (notably, aircraft). The estimates primarily reflected manufacturers’
shipments data from the Census Bureau as well as Census-BEA U.S. International Trade
in Goods and Services data for October and November and the Census Bureau’s
Advance Economic Indicators Report for December.
•
Within residential fixed investment, the leading contributors to the decrease were new singlefamily construction, primarily reflecting Census Bureau Value-Put-In-Place construction
spending data for October and November, and brokers’ commissions and other ownership
transfer costs, primarily reflecting existing home sales data from the National Association of
Realtors for all three months of the quarter.
•
The decreases in both exports and imports primarily reflected Census Bureau-BEA U.S.
International Trade in Goods and Services data for October and November and the Census
Bureau’s Advance Economic Indicators Report for December.
o
For exports, a decrease in goods was partly offset by an increase in services. The
decrease in goods primarily reflected widespread decreases in nondurable goods.
Within services, travel and transport services were the leading contributors to the
increase.
o
For imports, the decrease primarily reflected a decrease in goods, led by durable
consumer goods.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, which measures private demand in the domestic
economy and is derived as the sum of consumer spending and private fixed investment, increased 0.2
percent in the fourth quarter after increasing 1.1 percent in the third quarter.
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Prices
BEA's featured measure of inflation in the U.S. economy, the price index for gross domestic purchases,
increased 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter, following a 4.8 percent increase in the third. Excluding food
and energy, gross domestic purchases prices increased 3.8 percent, after increasing 5.0 percent.
The price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 3.2 percent in the fourth
quarter, after increasing 4.3 percent in the third. In the fourth quarter, PCE food prices increased 5.9
percent, while energy prices decreased 14.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the “core” PCE price
index increased 3.9 percent, after increasing 4.7 percent. The fourth-quarter increase in core PCE prices
reflected widespread increases for services (led by housing and food services) that were partly offset by
a decrease in goods (led by used motor vehicles). Prices were based primarily on BLS consumer and
producer price indexes. For a comparison of PCE prices to BLS consumer price indexes, refer to NIPA
Table 9.1U. Reconciliation of Percent Change in the CPI with Percent Change in the PCE Price Index.
Disposable Personal Income
Real disposable personal income (DPI) increased 3.3 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter,
compared with an increase of 1.0 percent in the third quarter. Current-dollar DPI increased 6.5 percent,
after increasing 5.4 percent.
The increase in fourth quarter current-dollar DPI primarily reflected an increase in compensation (led by
private wages and salaries), government social benefits, and personal income receipts on assets.
•
Within compensation, the leading contributor to the increase was private wages and salaries,
based primarily on BLS CES data.
•
Within government social benefits, the leading contributor to the increase was "other" benefits,
primarily reflecting an increase in one-time state refundable tax credits, based on a combination
of media reports and state-level administrative data.
•
Within personal income receipts on assets, the increase reflected increases in both interest and
dividend income.
The personal saving rate was 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with 2.7 percent in the third
quarter.
GDP for 2022
Real GDP increased 2.1 percent in 2022 (from the 2021 annual level to the 2022 annual level), compared
with an increase of 5.9 percent in 2021. The increase in real GDP in 2022 primarily reflected increases in
consumer spending, exports, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment that
were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and federal government spending.
Imports increased.
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Measured from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2022, real GDP increased 1.0
percent during the period, compared with an increase of 5.7 percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to
the fourth quarter of 2021.
Updated GDP and Personal Income Per Capita Statistics
BEA’s per capita income and product statistics, featured in NIPA table 7.1, have been updated beginning
with the first quarter of 2020. The revised historical time series reflects the latest Census Bureau
population statistics, released in December 2022.
More Information
The complete set of statistics is available on BEA's website. In a few weeks, the Survey of Current
Business, BEA’s online journal, will present a more detailed analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the
Economy").
David B. Wasshausen
Acting Associate Director, National Economic Accounts
Chief, Expenditure and Income Division, National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(301) 278-9752
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@FedFRASER