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Gross Domestic Product
Fourth Quarter of 2017 (Second Estimate)
February 28, 2018
This technical note provides background information about the source data and estimating methods
used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release. The complete set of estimates for
the fourth quarter is available on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also
posted on the Web site. BEA's source data and assumptions for the "second" estimate are shown in a
"Key Source Data and Assumptions" table on the BEA Web site. In a few weeks, the Survey of Current
Business, BEA’s online monthly journal, will publish a detailed analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the
Economy").
Updates to Real GDP
Real GDP increased 2.5 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017, a downward revision of 0.1
percentage point from the "advance" estimate. The revision primarily reflected a revision to private
inventory investment. Within private inventory investment, farm inventories were revised down,
reflecting newly available data from the USDA Economic Research Service’s Farm Income Forecast.
While consumer spending overall was unrevised, there were offsetting revisions to spending on goods
and services. Spending on goods was revised down, primarily reflecting revised monthly data from the
Census Bureau’s Monthly Retail Trade Survey. Spending on services was revised up, primarily reflecting
newly available 2017 fourth-quarter data from the Census Bureau’s Advance Quarterly Services Report
(QSR).
Private fixed investment in intellectual property products (notably software) was also revised down with
the incorporation of newly available 2017 fourth-quarter data from the Census Bureau’s Advance QSR.
The advance QSR estimates were benchmarked to the Census Bureau’s 2016 Service Annual Survey and
were incorporated on a best-change basis in the NIPAs. For more information, see
https://www.census.gov/services/qss/qss-current.pdf.
Updates to Wages and Salaries in the Third and Fourth Quarters
In addition to presenting revised estimates for the fourth quarter, today's release presents revised
estimates of third-quarter 2017 wages and salaries. Wages and salaries are now estimated to have
increased $97.4 billion in the third quarter, an upward revision of $18.3 billion. These estimates reflect
the most recently available wage and salary tabulations for the third quarter from the Bureau of Labor
Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program for all states. As a result, real
Gross Domestic Income (GDI) is now estimated to have increased 2.4 percent in the third quarter, an
upward revision of 0.4 percentage point.
Fourth quarter wages and salaries are now estimated to have increased $91.3 billion, an upward
revision of $8.8 billion. The upward revision to the fourth quarter primarily reflects the incorporation of
the QCEW for the third quarter of 2017. The estimate of real GDI along with Corporate Profits for the
fourth quarter will be available with the release of the “third” estimate of GDP on March 28.
Erich H. Strassner
Associate Director, National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(301) 278-9612
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