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Gross Domestic Product
Fourth Quarter of 2016 (Second Estimate)
February 28, 2017
This technical note provides background information about the source data and estimating methods
used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release. The complete set of estimates for
the fourth quarter is available on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also
posted on the Web site. The March issue of the Survey of Current Business, BEA’s online monthly
journal, will include a more detailed analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the Economy").
Sources of Revision to Real GDP
Real GDP was unrevised from the advance estimate, increasing 1.9 percent (annual rate) in the fourth
quarter after increasing 3.5 percent in the third quarter. An upward revision to consumer spending was
offset by downward revisions to gross private domestic investment and to state and local government
consumption expenditures and gross investment.
The upward revision to consumer spending reflected upward revisions to both goods and
services. The upward revision to goods was primarily to motor vehicles and parts reflecting an
upward revision to net purchases of used motor vehicles. The upward revision to used motor
vehicles reflected the incorporation of revised Census Bureau’s retail trade data. The revision to
services reflected an upward revision to healthcare that was partly offset by a downward
revision to final consumption expenditures of nonprofit institutions serving households (NPISH).
These revisions reflect the incorporation of newly available information from the Census
Bureau’s Advance Quarterly Services Report.
The downward revision to gross private domestic investment reflected downward revisions to
nonresidential fixed investment in intellectual property products, to nonresidential fixed
investment in equipment, and to inventory investment.
o
The downward revision to intellectual property products was in all three categories
(software; research and development; and entertainment, literary, and artistic originals)
and reflected the incorporation of newly available information from the Census
Bureau’s Advance Quarterly Services Report as well as newly available R&D expense
data from company financial reports.
o
The downward revision to equipment primarily reflected an upward revision to aircraft
exports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of fixed investment. The revision to
aircraft exports reflected the incorporation of newly available Census Bureau data on
detailed export statistics for the month of December.
o
The downward revision to inventory investment primarily reflected a downward
revision to nonmerchant wholesalers for motor vehicles reflecting revised Census
Bureau inventories data. The downward revision to farm inventories reflected newly
available data from the Economic Research Service’s farm income forecast.
The downward revision to state and local government consumption expenditures and gross
investment reflected the incorporation of revised and newly available construction statistics
from the Census Bureau.
Revisions to Wages and Salaries in the Third and Fourth Quarters
In addition to presenting revised estimates for the fourth quarter, today's release presents revised
estimates of third-quarter wages and salaries, personal taxes, and contributions for government social
insurance. Wages and salaries are now estimated to have increased $119.4 billion in the third quarter
of 2016, an upward revision of $10.0 billion. These estimates reflect the most recently available wage
and salary tabulations for the third quarter from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Quarterly Census
of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program for all states. Real GDI is now estimated to have increased
5.0 percent in the third quarter, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage point. In addition to the revisions
to third quarter wages and salaries, fourth quarter wages and salaries are now estimated to have
increased $78.8 billion, an upward revision of $1.0 billion. The upward revision to the fourth quarter
primarily reflects the incorporation of revised data for the months of September through December
from the BLS Current Employment Statistics.
David B. Wasshausen
Chief, National Income and Wealth Division
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(301) 278-9715
-2-
Table A. SOURCE DATA FOR THE ADVANCE AND SECOND
ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2016
This table shows the actual data used for the second estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2016. For nonresidential
and residential structures and nondurable manufacturing inventories, actual data for December were not available in time
for inclusion in the advance GDP estimate and BEA made assumptions for these source data. For merchant wholesale
and retail inventories and net exports, the revisions for December are calculated from the values from the Census
Bureau's Advance Economic Indicators report. Merchant wholesale and retail inventories reflect concurrent seasonal
factors for all months.
All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are published by the
Census Bureau.
2016
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Private fixed investment:
Nonresidential structures:
1 Value of new nonresidential
construction put in place………………..
Revision………………………………….
428.3
0.0
432.2
0.0
432.6
0.0
426.6
0.5
430.1
0.1
430.1
2.0
Residential structures:
Value of new residential
construction put in place:
2
Single family………………………………..
Revision……………………………………
238.6
0.0
237.0
0.0
236.7
0.0
243.8
0.5
249.0
1.4
250.4
0.9
59.7
0.0
61.1
0.0
61.5
0.0
62.5
-1.1
62.0
0.1
63.7
1.4
4 Change in inventories for nondurable
manufacturing………………………………
Revision…………………………………….
-4.5
0.0
6.7
0.0
-10.4
0.0
10.6
3.6
18.4
10.6
14.1
-2.8
5 Change in inventories for merchant
wholesale………………………………...
Revision……………………………………
-1.9
---
-11.6
---
9.1
---
-10.2
---
75.3
---
70.5
-0.6
6 Change in inventories for retail industries..
Revision………………………………
-28.5
---
47.5
---
12.1
---
-35.4
---
67.1
---
3.9
4.2
Net exports of goods:
7 U.S. exports of goods, Census basis……..
Revision……………………………………
8 U.S. imports of goods, Census basis……..
Revision……………………………………
123.8
0.0
182.5
0.0
124.7
0.0
183.8
0.0
126.1
0.0
182.1
0.0
122.6
-0.3
184.7
0.1
121.6
-0.2
187.2
0.1
126.6
1.1
190.9
0.4
3
Multifamily………………………………….
Revision……………………………………
Change in private inventories:
02/28/2017 8:30 AM
@FedFRASER