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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
Fourth Quarter of 2015 (Advance Estimate)
January 29, 2016
This technical note provides background information about the source data and
estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release.
The complete set of estimates for the fourth quarter is available on BEA's Web site at
www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also posted on the Web site. In a few
weeks, the Survey of Current Business, BEA’s online monthly journal, will publish a
more detailed analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the Economy").
GDP
Real GDP increased 0.7 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015, following an
increase of 2.0 percent in the third quarter. The deceleration in real GDP in the fourth
quarter primarily reflected a deceleration in consumer spending and downturns in
nonresidential fixed investment, in exports, and in state and local government spending
that were partly offset by a smaller decrease in private inventory investment, a
deceleration in imports, and an acceleration in federal government spending.
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
The advance GDP estimate for the fourth quarter of 2015 is based on source data that
are incomplete and subject to revision. Three months of source data were available for
consumer spending on goods; shipments of capital equipment; motor vehicle sales
and inventories; durable goods manufacturing inventories; exports and imports of
goods; federal government outlays; and consumer, producer, and international prices.
BEA’s key assumptions for the third month for other major series are shown in table A.
Among those assumptions are the following:
•
•
•
•
an increase in nonresidential construction,
an increase in residential construction,
a decrease in nondurable manufacturing inventories, and
an increase in non-motor-vehicle merchant wholesale and retail inventories.
Prices
The price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.1 percent
in the fourth quarter after increasing 1.3 percent in the third. Excluding food and
energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.2 percent after increasing 1.4 percent.
Disposable Personal Income
Real disposable personal income increased 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter, following
an increase of 3.8 percent in the third. The personal saving rate was 5.4 percent in the
fourth quarter, compared with 5.2 percent in the third.
2015 GDP
Real GDP increased 2.4 percent in 2015 (that is, from the 2014 annual level to the 2015
annual level), the same rate as in 2014.
During 2015 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of
2015), real GDP increased 1.8 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent during
2014. During 2015, consumer spending increased 2.6 percent, compared with an
increase of 3.2 percent during 2014. Nonresidential fixed investment increased 1.6
percent during 2015, compared with an increase of 5.5 percent during 2014. Exports
decreased 0.8 percent during 2015, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent during
2014. In contrast, residential fixed investment increased 8.9 percent during 2015,
compared with an increase of 5.1 percent during 2014.
Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9606
Table A. KEY ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE ADVANCE
ESTIMATE OF GDP FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2015
For many of the key series used to prepare the advance estimate of GDP, including retail sales, unit
automobile and truck sales and inventories, manufacturers' shipments of nondefense capital goods,
manufacturers' inventories of durable goods, exports of goods, imports of goods, federal defense
spending, and consumer, producer, and international price indexes, actual data are available for all
months of the quarter.
For the key series shown in this table, actual data for the third month of the quarter usually are not
available in time for inclusion in the advance GDP estimate. BEA makes assumptions for the source data
that are not yet available; assumptions for December 2015 are shown in the last column of the table. For
most series shown, the data for November are preliminary and subject to further revision. Occasionally,
the data for earlier months are also subject to revision.
All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are
published by the Census Bureau.
2015
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.*
Private fixed investment:
Nonresidential structures:
1 Value of new nonresidential
construction put in place………………..
399.2
400.1
398.5
402.9
400.3
401.6
Residential structures:
Value of new residential
construction put in place:
2
Single family……………………………...
217.2
219.8
222.7
225.3
226.7
228.8
50.3
54.4
57.2
57.4
56.9
57.5
3
Multifamily…………………………….....
Change in private inventories:
NOTE: Historical (Jul.–Oct.) data reflect concurrent seasonal factors.
4 Change in inventories for nondurable
manufacturing…………………………….
-9.0
-18.1
-12.3
2.6
-2.8
-1.4
5 Change in inventories for merchant
wholesale and retail industries other
than motor vehicles and equipment….
-8.0
23.6
41.8
9.3
-16.4
26.5
276.4
277.7
276.7
271.4
270.3
270.8
Government:
State and local:
Structures:
6
Value of new construction put
in place……………………………...
*Assumption.
01/29/2016 8:30 AM
@FedFRASER