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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
Fourth Quarter of 2014 (Third Estimate)
March 27, 2015
This technical note provides background information about the source data and
estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release.
The complete set of estimates for the fourth quarter is available on BEA's Web site at
www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also posted on the Web site. In a few
weeks, the Survey of Current Business, BEA’s online monthly journal, will publish a
more detailed analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the Economy").
Sources of Revision to Real GDP
Real GDP increased 2.2 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter, unrevised from the
second estimate. Upward revisions to exports and to consumer spending were largely
offset by a downward revision to inventory investment.
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The upward revision to exports primarily reflected an upward revision to services,
most notably travel, based on international transactions accounts data for the
fourth quarter.
The upward revision to consumer spending was primarily to services. An upward
revision to health care was partly offset by a downward revision to financial
services. The revisions were based on newly available fourth-quarter Census
Bureau quarterly services survey data and newly available fourth-quarter FDIC
Call Report data.
The downward revision to inventory investment reflected downward revisions to
mining, information (within “other” industries), and wholesale trade, based on
newly available fourth-quarter Census quarterly financial report data for mining
and information and revised December Census inventory data for wholesale
trade.
The price index for personal consumption expenditures decreased 0.4 percent in the
fourth quarter, unrevised from the second estimate.
Gross Domestic Income and Corporate Profits
Real gross domestic income (GDI), which measures the value of the production of goods
and services in the United States as the costs incurred and the incomes earned in
production, increased 3.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 5.2
percent in the third quarter. For a given quarter, the estimates of GDP and GDI may
differ for a variety of reasons, including the incorporation of largely independent source
data. However, over longer time spans, the estimates of GDP and GDI tend to follow
similar patterns of change.
Profits from current production decreased $30.4 billion, or 1.4 percent (quarterly rate), in
the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of $64.5 billion, or 3.1 percent, in the third.
Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $12.5 billion, profits of domestic
nonfinancial corporations increased $18.1 billion, and rest-of-the-world profits decreased
$36.1 billion.
Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9606