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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
Fourth Quarter of 2014 (Second Estimate)
February 27, 2015
This technical note provides background information about the source data and estimating
methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release. The complete
set of estimates for the fourth quarter is available on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov; a brief
summary of "highlights" is also posted on the Web site. In a few weeks the Survey of Current
Business, BEA’s online monthly journal, will publish a more detailed analysis of the
estimates (“GDP and the Economy”).
Sources of Revision to Real GDP
Real GDP increased 2.2 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter, a downward revision of
0.4 percentage point from the advance estimate. The downward revision to the percent
change in real GDP is smaller than the average revision of 0.5 percentage point from the
advance to second estimate. The revision reflected a downward revision to private inventory
investment and an upward revision to imports that were partly offset by upward revisions to
nonresidential fixed investment and to state and local government spending.
•
•
•
•
•
The downward revision to inventory investment primarily reflected downward revisions to
wholesale trade industries and to nondurable goods manufacturing industries, based on
newly available Census Bureau inventory data for December and revised data for
November.
The upward revision to imports was mainly to goods and reflected newly available Census
data for December that replaced BEA assumptions and revised data for November.
The upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment primarily reflected upward
revisions to investment in intellectual property products, mainly research and
development (R&D), and in equipment. The revision to R&D reflected the incorporation
of company financial statement data. The revision to equipment was widespread with
the largest contributors being information processing equipment and transportation
equipment, based on newly available Census imports and exports data for December
and revised data for November.
The upward revision to state and local government spending reflected newly available
Census construction spending data for December and revised data for November and
October.
Also of note, a small downward revision to consumer spending reflected a downward
revision to spending on goods that was mostly offset by an upward revision to spending
on services. The revisions reflected newly available trade source data on vehicle
registrations; revised Census retail sales data; newly available Energy Information
Administration motor vehicle fuels, electricity, and natural gas data; and revised Bureau
of Labor Statistics (BLS) seasonally adjusted consumer price indexes used for deflation.
The price index for gross domestic purchases decreased 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter,
an upward revision of 0.2 percentage point. The major contributors to the revision were an
upward revision to PCE prices for financial services that reflected the incorporation of newly
available fourth-quarter commercial bank Call Report data and revised BLS seasonally
adjusted consumer price indexes.
Revisions to Wages and Salaries, Disposable Personal Income, and GDI
In addition to presenting revised estimates for the fourth quarter, today's release presents
revised estimates of third-quarter wages and salaries, personal taxes, and contributions for
government social insurance. Wages and salaries are now estimated to have increased $87.2
billion in the third quarter of 2014, an upward revision of $20.5 billion. These estimates reflect
newly available wage and salary tabulations for the third quarter from the BLS quarterly
census of employment and wages (QCEW). These data are more comprehensive than the
monthly employment and earnings data that were used for the earlier estimates—the QCEW
data include irregular pay, such as bonuses and gains from the exercise of stock options.
Real disposable personal income is now estimated to have increased 2.4 percent (annual
rate) in the third quarter and increased 3.8 percent in the fourth. (By comparison, the
estimates that were available last month showed an increase of 2.0 percent in the third
quarter and an increase of 3.8 percent in the fourth.)
The revision to third-quarter wages and salaries also resulted in a revision to gross domestic
income (GDI). Real GDI is now estimated to have increased 5.2 percent in the third quarter,
an upward revision of 0.5 percentage point. The estimate of real GDI for the fourth quarter
will be available with the third GDP estimate on March 27.
Nicole M. Mayerhauser
Chief, National Income and Wealth Division
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9715
Table A.--SOURCE DATA FOR THE ADVANCE AND SECOND
ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2014
This table shows the actual data used for the second estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of
2014. For these key series, actual data for December were not available in time for inclusion in the
advance GDP estimate released on January 30, 2015, and BEA made assumptions for these source
data. The numbers in brackets show the December values that had been assumed for the advance
estimate. For most series, the data incorporated for November and, in some cases, for October were
preliminary, and the numbers shown in brackets are the values used last month.
All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are
published by the Census Bureau.
2014
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Private fixed investment:
Nonresidential structures:
1 Value of new nonresidential
construction put in place………..
334.0
338.2
345.7
346.9
{346.1}
349.8
{345.0}
349.0
{345.6}
Residential structures:
Value of new residential
construction put in place:
2
Single family………………………..
188.2
190.8
194.1
198.4
{198.2}
200.1
{200.1}
202.5
{203.7}
43.6
44.6
46.6
47.0
{47.0}
46.4
{47.5}
46.6
{48.4}
3
Multifamily…………………………..
Change in private inventories:
NOTE: Historical (Jul.–Oct.) data may reflect concurrent seasonal factors.
4 Change in inventories for nondurable
manufacturing………………………..
-19.7
{-16.8}
-12.7
{-10.3}
-6.1
{-3.2}
-16.4
{-15.2}
-13.2
{-6.5}
-56.5
{-24.1}
17.2
{20.4}
36.6
{35.2}
27.1
{25.7}
54.1
{59.1}
57.6
{52.8}
8.4
{44.1}
Net exports:
Exports of goods:
5 U.S. exports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis…………………….
1672.5
1672.0
1636.1
1666.6
5a
Excluding gold………………………
1659.6
1655.1
1609.9
1635.4
1641.8
{1640.8}
1606.0
{1605.0}
1611.4
{1612.1}
1591.0
{1578.7}
Imports of goods:
U.S. imports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis……………………..
2383.1
2385.2
2384.2
2401.6
2364.7
2366.5
2370.2
2386.4
2350.9
{2340.1}
2338.9
{2328.1}
2403.5
{2376.4}
2386.9
{2362.8}
7 Net exports of goods…………………..
-710.6
-713.2
-748.1
-735.0
7a
-705.1
-711.3
-760.3
-751.0
-709.1
{-699.3}
-732.9
{-723.1}
-792.1
{-764.3}
-795.8
{-784.2}
254.5
254.3
253.5
260.5
{257.0}
256.7
{253.7}
259.4
{255.3}
4a Change in inventories for merchant
wholesale and retail industries other
than motor vehicles and equipment…
6
6a
Excluding gold……………………..
Excluding gold……………………..
Government:
State and local:
Structures:
8
Value of new construction put
in place……………………………..
2/27/2015 8:30 AM