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NEWS RELEASE EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EST, FRIDAY, JANUARY 30, 2015 BEA 15-04 Lisa Mataloni: Jeannine Aversa: (202) 606-5304 (GDP) gdpniwd@bea.gov (202) 606-2649 (News Media) GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FOURTH QUARTER AND ANNUAL 2014 (ADVANCE ESTIMATE) Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 5.0 percent. The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 4 and "Comparisons of Revisions to GDP" on page 5). The "second" estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on February 27, 2015. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a negative contribution from federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter primarily reflected an upturn in imports, a downturn in federal government spending, and decelerations in nonresidential fixed investment and in exports that were partly offset by an upturn in private inventory investment and an acceleration in PCE. The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, decreased 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of 1.4 percent in the third. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.7 percent, compared with an increase of 1.6 percent. NOTE. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2009) dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures. This news release is available on BEA's Web site along with the Technical Note and Highlights related to this release. Real personal consumption expenditures increased 4.3 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent in the third. Durable goods increased 7.4 percent, compared with an increase of 9.2 percent. Nondurable goods increased 4.4 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent. Services increased 3.7 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent. Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 8.9 percent in the third. Investment in nonresidential structures increased 2.6 percent, compared with an increase of 4.8 percent. Investment in equipment decreased 1.9 percent, in contrast to an increase of 11.0 percent. Investment in intellectual property products increased 7.1 percent, compared with an increase of 8.8 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 4.1 percent, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent. Real exports of goods and services increased 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 4.5 percent in the third. Real imports of goods and services increased 8.9 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.9 percent. Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 7.5 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of 9.9 percent in the third. National defense decreased 12.5 percent, in contrast to an increase of 16.0 percent. Nondefense increased 1.7 percent, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 1.3 percent, compared with an increase of 1.1 percent. The change in real private inventories added 0.82 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 0.03 percentage point from the third-quarter change. Private businesses increased inventories $113.1 billion in the fourth quarter, following increases of $82.2 billion in the third quarter and $84.8 billion in the second. Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 5.0 percent in the third. Gross domestic purchases Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 3.6 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 4.1 percent in the third. Disposition of personal income Current-dollar personal income increased $136.8 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $131.6 billion in the third. The acceleration in personal income primarily reflected accelerations in wages and salaries and in proprietors’ income that were partly offset by a deceleration in government social benefits to persons and a larger decrease in personal interest income. Personal current taxes increased $32.0 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $26.5 billion in the third. -2- Disposable personal income increased $104.8 billion, or 3.3 percent, in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $105.1 billion, or 3.3 percent, in the third. Real disposable personal income increased 3.8 percent, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent. Personal outlays increased $120.4 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $143.4 billion in the third. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was $601.7 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with $617.2 billion in the third. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 4.6 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with 4.7 percent in the third. For a comparison of personal saving in BEA's national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board's financial accounts of the United States and data on changes in net worth, go to www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp. Current-dollar GDP Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the production of goods and services in the United States -- increased 2.5 percent, or $110.9 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $17,710.7 billion. In the third quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 6.4 percent, or $271.6 billion. 2014 GDP Real GDP increased 2.4 percent in 2014 (that is, from the 2013 annual level to the 2014 annual level), compared with an increase of 2.2 percent in 2013. The increase in real GDP in 2014 reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, private inventory investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a negative contribution from federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The acceleration in real GDP growth in 2014 reflected an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, a smaller decrease in federal government spending, and accelerations in private inventory investment, in PCE, and in state and local government spending that were partly offset by an acceleration in imports and a deceleration in residential fixed investment. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.4 percent in 2014, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in 2013. Current-dollar GDP increased 3.9 percent, or $652.6 billion, in 2014 to a level of $17,420.7 billion, compared with an increase of 3.7 percent, or $604.9 billion, in 2013. During 2014 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the fourth quarter of 2014), real GDP increased 2.5 percent, compared with an increase of 3.1 percent during 2013. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.1 percent during 2014, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent during 2013. -3- Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. Within a few days after the release, a detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site. In the middle of each month, an analysis of the current quarterly estimate of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site; click on Survey of Current Business, "GDP and the Economy." For information on revisions, see "Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components." BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements. * * * Next release -- February 27, 2015 at 8:30 A.M. EST for: Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2014 (Second Estimate) * * * Release dates in 2015 Gross Domestic Product 2014: IV and 2014 annual 2015: I 2015: II January 30 February 27 March 27 April 29 May 29 June 24 July 30 October 29 August 27 November 24 September 25 December 22 ……….. March 27 May 29 June 24 August 27 November 24 September 25 December 22 Advance…… Second…….. Third………. 2015: III Corporate Profits Preliminary... Revised……. -4- Comparisons of Revisions to GDP Quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule: "Advance" estimates, based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency, are released near the end of the first month following the end of the quarter; as more detailed and more comprehensive data become available, "second" and "third" estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively. The "latest" estimates reflect the results of both annual and comprehensive revisions, which are typically released in late July. Annual revisions generally cover at least the 3 most recent calendar years (and the associated quarters) and incorporate newly available major annual source data. Comprehensive (or benchmark) revisions are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as improvements in concepts and methods that update the accounts to portray more accurately the evolving U.S. economy. The table below presents the average revisions to the quarterly percent changes in real and current-dollar GDP for the different estimate vintages. From the advance estimate to the second estimate (1 month later), the average revision to real GDP growth without regard to sign is 0.5 percentage point, while from the advance estimate to the third estimate (2 months later), it is 0.6 percentage point. From the advance estimate to the latest estimate, the average revision without regard to sign is 1.2 percentage points. Larger average revisions for the latest estimates reflect the fact that comprehensive revisions include major improvements to the accounts, such as the incorporation of BEA's latest benchmark input-output accounts. The quarterly estimates correctly indicate the direction of change in real GDP 96 percent of the time, correctly indicate whether GDP is accelerating or decelerating about 75 percent of the time, and correctly indicate whether real GDP growth is above, near, or below trend growth about 83 percent of the time. Revisions to Quarterly Percent Changes of GDP: Vintage Comparisons [Annual rates] Vintages compared Average Average without regard to sign Standard deviation of revisions without regard to sign Real GDP Advance to second..... Advance to third......... Second to third............ 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 Advance to latest........ -0.1 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 Current-dollar GDP Advance to second.... Advance to third........ Second to third........... 0.2 0.2 0.1 Advance to latest....... 0.1 1.3 NOTE. These comparisons are based on the period from 1993 through 2013. -5- 1.0 Table 1. Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Percent Change From Preceding Period Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Line 2012 2013 2014 2011 I 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 Gross domestic product (GDP) ..... 2.3 2.2 2.4 Personal consumption expenditures ....... 1.8 2.4 2.5 Goods....................................................... 2.8 3.4 3.5 Durable goods ...................................... 7.3 6.7 7.0 Nondurable goods ................................ 0.7 1.9 1.8 Services ................................................... 1.3 1.9 2.0 Gross private domestic investment ......... 9.2 4.9 6.0 Fixed investment ...................................... 8.3 4.7 5.2 Nonresidential....................................... 7.2 3.0 6.1 Structures ......................................... 13.1 –0.5 8.0 Equipment......................................... 6.8 4.6 6.3 Intellectual property products ........... 3.9 3.4 4.6 Residential............................................ 13.5 11.9 1.6 Change in private inventories................... ........... .......... .......... Net exports of goods and services .......... ........... .......... .......... Exports..................................................... 3.3 3.0 3.1 Goods................................................... 3.7 2.8 4.0 Services................................................ 2.4 3.6 1.1 Imports ..................................................... 2.3 1.1 3.9 Goods................................................... 2.1 0.9 4.0 Services................................................ 3.4 2.2 3.2 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment ............................ –1.4 –2.0 –0.2 Federal ..................................................... –1.8 –5.7 –1.9 National defense................................... –3.3 –6.6 –2.2 Nondefense .......................................... 1.0 –4.1 –1.5 State and local.......................................... –1.2 0.5 0.9 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product................ 2.2 2.2 2.3 Gross domestic purchases....................... 2.2 1.9 2.6 Final sales to domestic purchasers.......... 2.1 1.9 2.4 Gross domestic income (GDI) 1 ............... 3.4 2.2 .......... Gross national product (GNP).................. 2.1 2.2 .......... Disposable personal income .................... 3.0 –0.2 2.4 Current-dollar measures: GDP...................................................... 4.2 3.7 3.9 Final sales of domestic product ............ 4.0 3.7 3.8 Gross domestic purchases ................... 3.9 3.3 4.0 Final sales to domestic purchasers ...... 3.8 3.2 3.9 GDI ....................................................... 5.2 3.7 .......... GNP...................................................... 4.0 3.7 .......... Disposable personal income ................ 4.9 1.0 3.8 II 2012 III IV I II 2013 III IV I II 2014 III IV I II Line III IV –1.5 2.9 0.8 4.6 2.3 1.6 2.5 0.1 2.7 1.8 4.5 3.5 –2.1 4.6 5.0 2.6 2.0 0.8 1.8 1.4 2.8 1.3 1.9 1.9 3.6 1.8 2.0 3.7 1.2 2.5 3.2 4.3 2.9 –0.8 0.9 3.9 4.7 1.3 3.2 2.9 5.9 1.3 3.5 3.7 1.0 5.9 4.7 5.4 5.2 –2.6 5.2 12.0 10.7 2.3 8.0 9.1 8.5 4.5 4.9 5.7 3.2 14.1 9.2 7.4 1.9 0.1 –1.0 0.5 2.0 0.8 1.1 0.1 4.8 –0.2 2.8 2.7 0.0 2.2 2.5 4.4 1.6 1.6 2.2 0.1 1.8 1.3 1.3 1.4 2.4 2.0 1.3 3.7 1.3 0.9 2.5 3.7 –7.2 16.4 1.1 32.1 6.9 5.8 1.6 –5.3 7.6 6.9 16.8 3.8 –6.9 19.1 7.2 7.4 –0.9 8.2 17.3 9.9 9.1 4.4 3.1 6.6 2.7 4.9 6.6 6.3 0.2 9.5 7.7 2.3 –0.9 8.8 19.4 9.5 5.8 4.4 0.8 3.6 1.5 1.6 5.5 10.4 1.6 9.7 8.9 1.9 –27.1 30.6 25.6 13.8 18.7 10.5 –1.4 –6.7 –11.5 7.3 11.2 12.8 2.9 12.6 4.8 2.6 12.1 4.4 27.7 9.4 3.6 1.0 0.7 8.1 4.8 1.5 4.7 14.1 –1.0 11.2 11.0 –1.9 1.4 3.2 5.1 6.8 0.7 5.1 2.6 5.1 6.5 –2.0 2.8 3.6 4.6 5.5 8.8 7.1 –0.8 5.4 8.1 11.7 25.5 4.3 14.1 20.4 7.8 19.0 11.2 –8.5 –5.3 8.8 3.2 4.1 .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... ........... ........... ........... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... ........... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... ........... ........... ........... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... ........... 2.1 6.2 4.3 4.1 1.3 4.8 2.1 1.5 –0.8 6.3 5.1 10.0 –9.2 11.1 4.5 2.8 2.8 5.0 3.4 8.1 1.5 5.3 2.0 –3.1 –0.9 8.3 5.7 13.6 –11.9 14.3 7.5 1.9 0.6 9.3 6.2 –4.7 0.9 3.7 2.3 12.7 –0.8 2.0 3.6 2.3 –2.8 4.0 –1.9 4.7 3.1 3.0 3.3 4.5 1.7 4.0 –0.6 –3.5 –0.3 8.5 0.6 1.3 2.2 11.3 –0.9 8.9 5.3 0.8 2.2 5.5 2.0 4.0 –1.1 –4.8 0.5 8.5 0.1 0.9 2.5 12.5 –1.3 9.8 –7.4 15.3 8.7 0.0 0.8 4.0 2.4 3.4 –4.1 8.5 2.8 3.5 1.0 5.6 1.0 4.7 –7.5 –10.6 –14.0 –4.3 –5.3 –0.4 –2.5 1.6 –4.0 6.7 1.9 –6.9 –14.0 –1.8 –1.4 –1.6 –2.6 –9.5 11.4 –0.8 –2.7 –3.0 –7.4 5.3 –2.6 –0.4 –0.9 –1.3 –0.4 0.0 2.7 –6.0 –3.9 7.5 –13.0 –9.9 11.9 –20.1 –10.9 0.4 0.6 –8.2 –0.6 –0.8 0.3 0.2 –3.5 –2.1 –5.8 2.7 0.2 –3.8 –1.2 –10.4 0.4 –11.4 –3.9 –8.6 1.1 0.6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 –0.8 –0.1 –4.0 6.6 –1.3 1.7 –0.9 0.9 –3.8 3.4 4.4 –2.2 9.9 –7.5 16.0 –12.5 0.4 1.7 1.1 1.3 22 23 24 25 26 –0.6 –1.2 –0.4 0.5 –1.2 5.0 1.9 2.5 1.5 1.9 2.9 –0.6 3.0 0.8 2.9 2.6 1.4 2.1 1.8 4.6 1.9 3.3 4.9 0.2 2.5 2.3 2.5 7.2 1.3 6.8 1.4 1.6 1.4 0.6 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.0 2.2 1.3 2.1 –0.4 1.9 2.0 –0.7 2.7 1.0 2.0 4.2 1.4 0.3 2.3 11.8 –12.6 1.5 2.2 1.9 2.7 1.9 3.8 3.0 3.8 2.3 1.9 4.8 2.0 3.9 2.3 2.7 1.8 3.7 0.2 –1.0 –0.4 0.7 –0.8 –2.8 3.4 3.2 4.8 3.4 4.0 4.6 3.1 5.0 1.8 4.1 3.6 4.1 2.8 4.7 ........... 5.3 ........... 2.0 3.8 27 28 29 30 31 32 0.2 1.2 1.7 2.7 2.3 0.5 8.2 6.0 5.0 6.4 5.4 4.9 6.0 3.5 3.3 5.4 2.8 4.8 5.1 3.9 4.3 5.2 2.3 5.7 2.9 3.9 5.5 1.6 4.4 4.7 4.7 5.0 9.5 3.5 9.1 3.5 3.2 2.7 2.5 2.5 3.2 3.7 4.4 4.9 3.1 3.5 3.2 4.0 0.9 1.6 4.2 3.2 3.4 1.2 4.1 2.8 3.3 5.7 2.9 1.8 3.8 13.8 –11.7 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.7 3.8 3.0 4.3 6.2 4.7 5.5 4.1 3.6 6.5 3.7 5.0 5.5 3.7 4.2 3.3 5.2 1.2 –0.8 0.4 0.9 2.1 0.6 –1.5 4.8 6.8 5.4 6.9 5.5 6.2 6.8 5.5 6.4 2.5 6.6 1.8 5.5 3.2 5.6 2.5 6.1 ........... 6.7 ........... 3.3 3.3 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 1. Gross domestic income deflated by the implicit price deflator for gross domestic product. See “Explanatory Note” at the end of the tables. -6- Table 2. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Line 2012 2013 2014 2011 I 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 Percent change at annual rate: Gross domestic product ................................... Percentage points at annual rates: Personal consumption expenditures ...................... Goods..................................................................... Durable goods ..................................................... Motor vehicles and parts.................................. Furnishings and durable household equipment Recreational goods and vehicles..................... Other durable goods ........................................ Nondurable goods ............................................... Food and beverages purchased for offpremises consumption ................................. Clothing and footwear ...................................... Gasoline and other energy goods.................... Other nondurable goods .................................. Services ................................................................. Household consumption expenditures (for services) .......................................................... Housing and utilities......................................... Health care ...................................................... Transportation services.................................... Recreation services ......................................... Food services and accommodations ............... Financial services and insurance..................... Other services ................................................. Final consumption expenditures of nonprofit institutions serving households........................ Gross output of nonprofit institutions ............... Less: Receipts from sales of goods and services by nonprofit institutions .................. Gross private domestic investment ........................ Fixed investment ................................................... Nonresidential...................................................... Structures ........................................................ Equipment........................................................ Information processing equipment............... Computers and peripheral equipment...... Other ........................................................ Industrial equipment..................................... Transportation equipment ............................ Other equipment .......................................... Intellectual property products .......................... Software....................................................... Research and development ......................... Entertainment, literary, and artistic originals Residential........................................................... Change in private inventories .............................. Farm .................................................................... Nonfarm............................................................... Net exports of goods and services ......................... Exports................................................................... Goods.................................................................. Services............................................................... Imports ................................................................... Goods.................................................................. Services............................................................... Government consumption expenditures and gross investment................................................... Federal.................................................................... National defense.................................................. Consumption expenditures .............................. Gross investment ............................................. Nondefense ......................................................... Consumption expenditures .............................. Gross investment ............................................. State and local ....................................................... Consumption expenditures.................................. Gross investment................................................. 2.3 2.2 2.4 1.25 0.64 0.52 0.17 0.07 0.22 0.06 0.12 1.64 0.78 0.49 0.12 0.10 0.20 0.07 0.29 1.72 0.79 0.51 0.19 0.10 0.17 0.04 0.28 0.04 0.02 –0.05 0.11 0.61 –1.5 II 2.9 2012 III 0.8 IV 4.6 2013 I II III IV 2.3 1.6 2.5 0.1 1.87 0.86 1.06 0.29 0.75 0.16 0.23 0.01 0.13 –0.07 0.29 0.15 0.10 0.08 0.31 0.13 1.32 0.74 0.57 0.21 0.04 0.21 0.10 0.17 I II 2.7 1.8 2014 III IV I II 4.5 3.5 –2.1 1.32 0.67 0.64 0.26 0.09 0.20 0.09 0.02 2.45 1.23 1.39 1.35 0.30 0.80 0.61 0.33 0.36 0.14 0.00 0.04 0.14 0.09 0.16 0.24 0.20 0.17 0.09 0.04 –0.01 0.74 –0.03 0.43 2.51 0.83 0.42 0.13 0.07 0.12 0.10 0.41 0.83 0.23 0.23 0.13 0.01 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.20 0.86 0.00 0.06 –0.01 –0.09 –0.05 0.15 0.09 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.08 0.08 –0.14 0.07 0.13 –0.15 0.12 –0.05 0.03 –0.09 –0.27 –0.02 –0.05 –0.16 0.16 –0.03 –0.16 0.23 0.25 0.21 0.07 0.11 0.19 0.03 0.02 0.20 0.93 0.72 0.75 1.00 0.04 0.81 0.57 0.58 0.65 0.14 –0.14 0.11 0.11 0.04 –0.08 0.15 0.00 0.09 0.34 0.08 0.31 1.11 0.93 0.59 0.13 –0.05 –0.07 0.05 –0.08 0.12 0.00 0.05 –0.08 0.23 0.08 0.37 1.69 0.60 0.42 0.52 0.08 0.37 0.04 0.04 0.11 –0.23 0.11 0.78 0.16 0.24 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.10 0.07 0.85 0.78 0.73 0.83 0.15 0.74 0.32 0.54 0.38 1.21 0.90 0.48 0.11 0.04 0.16 0.34 –0.14 –0.20 0.46 0.24 –0.22 0.62 –0.01 –0.18 0.29 0.20 0.22 –0.03 0.51 0.70 0.13 0.40 0.13 0.04 0.40 0.30 0.05 0.02 0.09 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.06 0.01 0.10 0.05 0.02 0.01 –0.03 0.16 0.06 0.01 0.06 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.16 0.00 0.09 0.13 0.16 0.03 0.09 0.08 0.18 0.06 0.10 0.18 0.13 –0.04 0.01 0.21 0.15 –0.03 0.17 –0.30 –0.34 –0.33 –0.39 0.09 0.25 0.33 0.11 0.06 0.26 0.10 0.13 –0.01 0.33 –0.06 0.11 0.15 –0.09 0.17 0.13 1.50 0.61 0.35 1.00 0.24 0.68 –0.42 –0.22 0.48 –0.16 0.45 0.52 0.06 0.04 0.07 0.05 0.02 –0.05 –0.05 0.02 0.30 –0.05 0.22 0.21 0.28 0.14 0.14 0.35 0.12 0.02 –0.07 0.06 0.09 0.23 0.07 0.13 0.08 –0.06 0.18 –0.10 0.19 –0.01 0.51 –0.31 0.14 1.33 1.17 0.84 0.32 0.37 0.06 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.21 0.05 0.15 0.10 0.03 0.02 0.33 0.15 –0.07 0.22 0.04 0.44 0.34 0.10 –0.40 –0.30 –0.10 0.06 0.76 0.70 0.37 –0.01 0.26 0.05 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.07 0.13 0.05 0.06 0.01 0.33 0.06 0.13 –0.07 0.22 0.41 0.26 0.15 –0.19 –0.13 –0.06 0.10 0.95 0.80 0.75 0.22 0.35 0.04 –0.01 0.06 0.16 0.15 –0.01 0.18 0.07 0.10 0.01 0.05 0.15 0.01 0.14 –0.22 0.41 0.37 0.05 –0.64 –0.55 –0.09 –0.04 –1.07 –0.11 –0.09 –0.73 0.59 –0.24 –0.11 –0.13 0.36 0.31 0.16 0.05 0.14 –0.03 –0.06 –0.02 –0.96 0.30 –1.27 –0.24 0.27 0.24 0.03 –0.51 –0.73 0.22 0.05 2.14 1.10 0.97 0.63 0.22 0.17 0.16 0.01 0.06 –0.03 0.02 0.12 0.16 –0.02 –0.02 0.13 1.04 –0.02 1.06 0.31 0.82 0.45 0.37 –0.51 –0.11 –0.40 –0.21 0.15 2.25 2.06 0.56 1.31 0.05 0.08 –0.03 0.38 0.52 0.36 0.19 0.17 0.00 0.01 0.19 –2.10 0.08 –2.18 0.01 0.57 0.32 0.25 –0.56 –0.32 –0.24 –0.30 –0.15 –0.18 –0.12 –0.06 0.03 0.05 –0.02 –0.15 –0.02 –0.12 –0.39 –0.45 –0.33 –0.24 –0.09 –0.12 –0.08 –0.04 0.06 0.12 –0.06 –0.03 –0.14 –0.10 –0.03 –0.07 –0.04 –0.01 –0.03 0.11 0.10 0.01 –1.60 –0.95 –0.81 –0.47 –0.35 –0.14 –0.16 0.02 –0.65 –0.38 –0.28 –0.08 0.14 0.36 0.28 0.08 –0.22 –0.18 –0.04 –0.22 –0.11 –0.11 –0.52 –0.35 0.11 0.16 –0.06 –0.45 –0.42 –0.03 –0.17 –0.10 –0.07 1.38 0.57 1.20 0.94 0.66 –0.18 0.20 0.90 0.37 –0.19 0.36 0.83 0.02 –0.52 0.03 0.50 0.07 0.10 0.07 0.14 0.23 0.16 0.20 0.23 0.05 0.07 0.07 –0.05 0.29 0.01 –0.17 0.08 0.02 0.18 –0.12 0.08 –0.04 0.27 See “Explanatory Note” at the end of the tables. -7- 0.08 0.45 0.25 0.08 0.04 0.37 0.27 –0.10 0.05 –0.11 0.38 4.16 1.36 1.08 0.34 0.49 –0.04 –0.05 0.01 0.29 0.49 –0.25 0.26 0.15 0.07 0.03 0.28 2.80 0.05 2.75 –0.21 0.56 0.76 –0.20 –0.76 –0.76 0.00 0.37 1.04 1.24 0.66 0.46 0.17 0.18 0.09 0.09 –0.26 0.22 0.03 0.03 0.03 –0.02 0.02 0.59 –0.20 –0.06 –0.15 –0.11 0.19 0.15 0.03 –0.29 –0.27 –0.02 –0.16 0.88 0.61 0.50 0.27 0.03 –0.09 –0.03 –0.06 0.03 0.08 0.01 0.19 0.11 0.06 0.02 0.11 0.27 –0.14 0.41 –0.04 0.64 0.49 0.15 –0.68 –0.57 –0.11 0.32 0.26 0.45 0.09 –0.04 0.03 –0.13 –0.13 –0.01 –0.01 –0.15 0.32 0.10 0.04 0.05 0.01 0.36 –0.19 –0.29 0.10 0.39 0.28 0.19 0.09 0.10 0.17 –0.07 –0.21 –0.84 0.96 0.44 –0.19 0.44 0.25 0.18 0.07 0.07 0.09 0.03 0.19 0.06 0.11 0.02 0.52 –1.80 0.14 –1.95 0.79 0.19 –0.30 0.50 0.59 0.68 –0.09 –0.31 –0.21 –0.53 –0.53 0.00 0.32 0.35 –0.03 –0.10 –0.05 –0.05 –0.56 –0.25 –0.40 –0.18 –0.22 0.15 0.16 0.00 –0.31 –0.08 –0.23 –0.08 –0.08 –0.06 –0.14 0.08 –0.01 –0.01 –0.01 0.00 0.03 –0.04 0.52 0.59 0.58 0.62 –0.04 0.01 0.03 –0.02 –0.07 0.11 –0.18 –1.20 –1.10 –1.12 –0.97 –0.15 0.02 0.03 –0.01 –0.10 0.07 –0.17 4.6 Line III IV 5.0 2.6 1 1.75 2.21 1.33 1.06 0.99 0.67 0.45 0.28 0.20 0.10 0.26 0.31 0.08 –0.01 0.34 0.39 2.87 1.20 0.54 0.16 0.09 0.20 0.09 0.66 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0.00 –0.08 0.03 0.26 0.02 0.25 0.34 0.21 1.15 1.67 10 11 12 13 14 0.07 0.34 1.75 0.32 0.51 0.06 0.15 0.25 0.32 0.14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 0.15 –0.08 0.38 0.26 23 24 0.03 0.27 0.12 0.14 –0.01 1.12 0.42 0.20 –0.33 0.28 0.03 –0.06 0.09 0.03 0.08 0.15 0.24 0.16 0.07 0.01 0.22 0.70 0.36 0.35 –0.08 –0.12 –0.09 –0.03 0.04 –0.08 0.12 0.24 1.03 0.74 0.21 0.19 0.09 0.09 –0.06 0.15 0.00 0.12 –0.12 –0.08 –0.15 0.06 0.01 0.53 0.30 0.10 0.19 –0.54 0.82 0.74 0.09 –1.36 –1.13 –0.23 0.03 2.50 1.01 0.67 0.29 0.27 0.08 0.03 0.05 0.20 0.05 –0.07 0.11 0.12 –0.01 –0.01 0.34 1.49 0.17 1.32 0.59 0.67 0.52 0.15 –0.09 –0.01 –0.08 0.33 0.62 0.95 1.23 0.34 0.76 –0.07 0.11 –0.18 0.02 0.45 0.36 0.14 0.07 0.06 0.01 –0.28 –0.34 0.01 –0.35 1.08 1.30 1.20 0.10 –0.22 –0.12 –0.09 –0.30 –1.13 0.03 0.20 0.08 –0.06 –0.13 –0.22 0.09 0.17 0.00 –0.09 0.18 0.03 0.14 0.01 –0.17 –1.16 –0.23 –0.93 –1.66 –1.30 –1.18 –0.12 –0.36 –0.33 –0.03 0.27 2.87 1.45 1.18 0.35 0.63 0.40 0.10 0.30 0.32 0.04 –0.14 0.21 0.07 0.13 0.01 0.27 1.42 0.11 1.31 –0.34 1.43 1.26 0.17 –1.77 –1.62 –0.15 0.23 1.18 1.21 1.10 0.14 0.63 –0.12 0.05 –0.16 0.35 0.45 –0.05 0.34 0.15 0.17 0.01 0.10 –0.03 0.13 –0.16 0.78 0.61 0.69 –0.08 0.16 0.19 –0.03 0.34 1.20 0.37 0.24 0.08 –0.11 0.25 –0.02 0.27 –0.19 –0.17 0.00 0.27 0.16 0.10 0.01 0.13 0.82 –0.01 0.83 –1.02 0.37 0.18 0.19 –1.39 –1.27 –0.13 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 –0.75 –0.79 –0.55 –0.35 –0.20 –0.24 –0.17 –0.07 0.04 0.16 –0.12 0.04 –0.26 –0.09 –0.05 –0.05 –0.17 –0.12 –0.04 0.31 0.15 0.15 0.04 –0.08 0.03 0.02 0.00 –0.11 –0.08 –0.03 0.13 0.12 0.00 –0.71 –0.79 –0.55 –0.48 –0.06 –0.24 –0.20 –0.04 0.07 0.09 –0.02 –0.15 –0.01 –0.18 0.12 –0.30 0.17 0.21 –0.04 –0.14 0.08 –0.22 0.31 0.80 –0.06 0.68 0.04 0.66 –0.07 0.69 0.11 –0.03 –0.10 0.01 –0.08 0.02 –0.03 –0.01 0.38 0.13 0.11 0.08 0.26 0.04 –0.40 –0.54 –0.58 –0.61 0.03 0.04 0.00 0.04 0.14 0.10 0.04 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 Table 3. Gross Domestic Product: Level and Change From Preceding Period—Continues Billions of dollars Billions of chained (2009) dollars Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Change from preceding period Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Line 2014 2013 2014 2014 2013 2014 Line 2014 2014 1 Gross domestic product ................................... 2 Personal consumption expenditures ...................... 3 Goods..................................................................... 4 Durable goods ..................................................... 5 Motor vehicles and parts ................................. 6 Furnishings and durable household equipment .................................................... 7 Recreational goods and vehicles..................... 8 Other durable goods ........................................ 9 Nondurable goods ............................................... 10 Food and beverages purchased for offpremises consumption................................. 11 Clothing and footwear...................................... 12 Gasoline and other energy goods.................... 13 Other nondurable goods .................................. 14 Services ................................................................. 15 Household consumption expenditures (for services) .......................................................... 16 Housing and utilities......................................... 17 Health care ...................................................... 18 Transportation services.................................... 19 Recreation services......................................... 20 Food services and accommodations ............... 21 Financial services and insurance .................... 22 Other services ................................................. 23 Final consumption expenditures of nonprofit institutions serving households........................ 24 Gross output of nonprofit institutions ............... 25 Less: Receipts from sales of goods and services by nonprofit institutions.................. 26 Gross private domestic investment ........................ 27 Fixed investment ................................................... 28 Nonresidential ..................................................... 29 Structures ........................................................ 30 Equipment ....................................................... 31 Information processing equipment............... 32 Computers and peripheral equipment...... 33 Other ........................................................ 34 Industrial equipment .................................... 35 Transportation equipment ............................ 36 Other equipment .......................................... 37 Intellectual property products .......................... 38 Software....................................................... 39 Research and development ......................... 40 Entertainment, literary, and artistic originals 41 Residential........................................................... 42 Change in private inventories .............................. 43 Farm .................................................................... 44 Nonfarm............................................................... 45 Net exports of goods and services ......................... 46 Exports................................................................... 47 Goods.................................................................. 48 Services............................................................... 49 Imports................................................................... 50 Goods.................................................................. 51 Services............................................................... IV I II III IV 15,916.2 10,811.4 3,669.0 1,344.5 380.5 15,831.7 10,844.3 3,678.3 1,355.0 385.7 16,010.4 10,912.6 3,731.6 1,400.4 402.9 16,205.6 10,999.5 3,774.5 1,431.5 413.7 16,311.6 11,114.9 3,824.3 1,457.5 420.2 379.5 268.1 126.2 92.1 29.6 195.2 86.9 42.9 31.1 10.8 106.0 115.4 49.8 26.0 6.5 1 2 3 4 5 287.4 283.0 281.7 287.0 289.4 291.4 323.4 312.1 312.7 322.3 327.1 331.7 361.7 351.5 350.6 359.4 366.9 369.7 491.3 464.1 468.3 483.1 501.0 512.9 205.7 204.2 203.1 205.9 206.2 207.4 201.3 197.7 198.1 201.5 200.8 204.7 2,665.8 2,624.6 2,628.4 2,666.1 2,691.3 2,677.4 2,365.2 2,341.8 2,341.9 2,354.6 2,369.4 2,395.0 18.3 39.3 6.9 42.6 4.8 17.9 –0.7 14.8 4.6 11.9 3.9 25.6 6 7 8 9 888.0 878.6 879.4 886.0 892.6 893.8 809.0 814.0 811.9 809.2 809.0 806.0 365.9 361.0 357.8 365.0 367.3 373.5 345.0 341.5 338.3 342.9 343.9 354.9 398.3 407.1 407.1 410.1 406.3 369.8 275.0 272.9 274.4 272.1 272.7 280.7 1,013.6 977.9 984.0 1,005.0 1,025.1 1,040.2 947.1 923.5 926.8 941.7 955.6 964.3 7,959.3 7,767.2 7,837.8 7,906.2 7,990.4 8,102.9 7,216.1 7,141.9 7,165.4 7,181.4 7,225.9 7,292.0 –0.4 3.8 3.3 37.2 143.0 –0.2 1.0 0.6 13.9 44.5 –3.0 11.0 8.0 8.7 66.1 10 11 12 13 14 7,631.0 2,166.9 1,993.6 344.9 445.2 755.0 886.1 1,039.4 7,765.4 6,903.6 6,833.4 6,857.1 6,870.3 6,908.9 6,977.9 2,188.6 1,982.5 1,969.1 1,996.0 1,979.5 1,970.9 1,983.7 2,034.3 1,827.0 1,804.7 1,798.4 1,815.9 1,836.6 1,857.0 350.2 315.2 310.0 311.4 314.3 316.3 318.7 450.9 406.6 408.2 406.2 404.4 405.1 410.9 779.9 674.5 663.7 661.5 670.1 678.2 688.1 912.1 759.4 741.1 746.2 751.2 764.1 776.0 1,049.3 937.7 936.6 937.3 934.5 936.7 942.2 131.1 16.8 45.9 7.6 0.9 19.1 30.9 8.8 38.6 –8.6 20.7 2.0 0.7 8.1 12.9 2.2 69.0 12.8 20.4 2.4 5.8 9.9 11.9 5.5 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 328.4 315.5 319.4 324.3 332.2 337.5 313.6 309.5 309.1 312.1 318.3 315.0 1,299.8 1,273.2 1,267.3 1,289.2 1,310.8 1,332.0 1,179.3 1,171.7 1,159.4 1,172.7 1,187.4 1,197.7 12.4 27.9 6.2 14.7 –3.3 10.3 23 24 883.5 15.9 8.7 13.2 2,800.2 154.5 47.1 49.4 2,658.5 128.9 48.8 15.2 2,154.8 122.1 45.2 10.0 463.6 33.6 5.4 3.0 1,022.8 59.4 26.5 –4.8 322.2 7.8 –5.6 11.6 ............. ............ ............ ............ 235.4 9.8 –7.5 12.1 228.1 26.1 13.9 –7.8 261.8 26.0 19.5 –7.3 215.3 –1.0 –2.2 –0.1 670.7 28.9 13.8 11.5 316.7 11.5 6.5 7.0 273.9 15.6 6.7 4.0 80.1 1.4 0.5 0.5 504.6 7.9 4.0 5.0 113.1 15.3 –2.6 30.9 7.4 –1.9 3.5 –0.9 106.5 18.3 –7.0 32.8 –471.5 –32.2 29.0 –40.1 2,118.4 62.7 23.3 14.4 1,468.6 55.5 26.2 7.0 649.1 6.9 –3.1 7.5 2,589.9 94.8 –5.8 54.6 2,119.9 80.1 –6.8 48.9 469.1 14.5 1.2 5.4 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 17,420.7 11,928.4 3,969.0 1,303.2 448.5 971.4 2,855.8 2,765.4 2,206.4 506.1 1,015.6 293.4 75.6 217.8 239.1 256.6 226.5 684.7 305.7 298.9 80.1 559.0 90.4 8.1 82.3 –538.0 2,334.2 1,614.0 720.2 2,872.3 2,383.8 488.4 IV I II III IV 17,078.3 11,653.3 3,886.1 1,261.5 422.8 17,044.0 11,728.5 3,890.6 1,262.3 426.9 17,328.2 11,870.7 3,964.5 1,298.4 446.2 17,599.8 12,002.0 4,011.5 1,320.2 457.7 17,710.7 12,112.3 4,009.4 1,332.0 463.4 7,451.7 2,110.1 1,956.2 337.4 442.0 727.5 852.0 1,026.4 957.7 2,745.2 2,654.6 2,118.7 481.7 980.0 286.0 80.8 205.2 214.5 245.2 234.3 657.0 297.8 280.8 78.4 535.9 90.5 12.4 78.2 –462.9 2,324.6 1,614.0 710.7 2,787.5 2,309.7 477.8 7,518.4 2,160.3 1,951.7 339.2 442.7 730.8 861.0 1,032.8 947.9 2,714.4 2,674.3 2,134.6 487.9 979.5 280.3 71.4 209.0 222.7 245.3 231.1 667.2 298.9 289.1 79.3 539.7 40.1 3.1 37.0 –538.0 2,284.7 1,575.3 709.5 2,822.7 2,341.5 481.2 7,581.9 2,157.7 1,979.3 343.6 442.9 747.7 875.5 1,035.1 964.9 2,843.6 2,743.4 2,191.2 504.4 1,008.6 297.9 75.9 221.9 237.2 247.8 225.8 678.2 302.4 295.9 79.9 552.2 100.3 8.4 91.8 –549.2 2,344.3 1,623.3 721.1 2,893.5 2,405.6 487.9 7,658.2 2,160.9 2,008.9 346.5 444.5 761.5 895.8 1,040.2 978.5 2,905.1 2,810.6 2,244.3 513.3 1,038.2 292.5 77.9 214.6 252.6 269.0 224.1 692.7 308.6 303.6 80.5 566.4 94.5 11.1 83.4 –516.5 2,366.5 1,645.0 721.4 2,883.0 2,393.7 489.3 994.4 2,960.2 2,833.3 2,255.7 518.8 1,036.1 302.8 77.0 225.7 244.0 264.3 225.1 700.8 313.1 307.1 80.6 577.6 126.9 9.8 117.2 –548.5 2,341.3 1,612.5 728.8 2,889.8 2,394.6 495.2 16,089.8 10,967.8 3,752.2 1,411.1 405.6 866.7 2,710.7 2,608.1 2,112.7 455.3 1,006.6 311.8 ............. 226.8 223.8 257.1 218.0 653.0 307.4 266.3 79.4 496.3 78.8 5.7 73.5 –452.6 2,082.5 1,438.4 643.5 2,535.1 2,071.6 462.9 863.0 2,634.7 2,535.0 2,043.3 438.8 977.2 304.1 ............. 213.7 202.3 247.9 227.3 629.6 298.9 252.8 78.4 491.9 81.8 10.5 70.4 –384.0 2,076.5 1,433.0 642.9 2,460.5 2,005.3 455.1 851.3 2,588.2 2,536.1 2,051.5 441.9 974.8 298.1 .............. 217.6 209.0 247.8 223.6 636.8 300.0 258.2 78.8 485.3 35.2 2.2 33.3 –447.2 2,026.9 1,388.1 638.4 2,474.1 2,017.7 456.3 861.6 2,703.7 2,594.5 2,099.6 455.2 1,001.1 316.2 .............. 230.8 222.0 249.6 217.6 645.4 303.2 263.2 79.1 495.6 84.8 4.8 80.7 –460.4 2,080.7 1,435.4 644.7 2,541.1 2,077.8 462.5 870.3 2,750.8 2,643.3 2,144.8 460.6 1,027.6 310.6 .............. 223.3 235.9 269.1 215.4 659.2 309.7 269.9 79.6 499.6 82.2 8.3 73.7 –431.4 2,104.0 1,461.6 641.6 2,535.3 2,071.0 463.7 III IV NOTE. Users are cautioned that particularly for components that exhibit rapid change in prices relative to other prices in the economy, the chained-dollar estimates should not be used to measure the component’s relative importance or its contribution to the growth rate of more aggregate series. For accurate estimates of the contributions to percent changes in real gross domestic product, use table 2. See “Explanatory Note” at the end of the tables. -8- Table 3. Gross Domestic Product: Level and Change From Preceding Period—Table Ends Billions of dollars Billions of chained (2009) dollars Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Change from preceding period Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Line 2014 2013 2014 2014 2013 2014 Line 2014 2014 52 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment .................................................. 53 Federal................................................................... 54 National defense ................................................. 55 Consumption expenditures.............................. 56 Gross investment ............................................ 57 Nondefense......................................................... 58 Consumption expenditures.............................. 59 Gross investment ............................................ 60 State and local ...................................................... 61 Consumption expenditures ................................. 62 Gross investment ................................................ 63 Residual...................................................................... Addenda: 64 Final sales of domestic product .............................. 65 Gross domestic purchases ..................................... 66 Final sales to domestic purchasers ........................ 67 Gross domestic product ...................................... 68 Plus: Income receipts from the rest of the world..... 69 Less: Income payments to the rest of the world ..... 70 Equals: Gross national product .......................... 71 Net domestic product.............................................. 72 Gross domestic income 1........................................ IV I II III IV 3,174.5 1,219.0 761.4 618.7 142.7 457.6 346.3 111.4 1,955.5 1,620.3 335.2 ............. 3,142.7 1,216.2 757.5 605.5 152.0 458.7 345.6 113.1 1,926.5 1,594.9 331.6 ............. 3,139.1 1,208.1 749.9 610.5 139.4 458.2 346.7 111.6 1,931.0 1,607.4 323.6 ............. 3,163.1 1,210.5 754.6 610.4 144.2 455.9 345.1 110.8 1,952.6 1,616.6 336.1 ............. 3,209.3 1,241.3 784.0 641.1 142.9 457.3 346.6 110.7 1,968.0 1,628.5 339.4 ............. 3,186.7 1,216.2 757.0 613.0 144.0 459.2 346.7 112.4 1,970.5 1,628.7 341.8 ............. 17,330.3 17,958.7 17,868.3 17,420.7 ............. ............. ............. 14,685.1 ............. 16,987.8 17,541.2 17,450.6 17,078.3 831.8 588.9 17,321.2 14,407.8 17,197.8 17,003.9 17,582.0 17,541.8 17,044.0 822.6 611.6 17,255.0 14,345.3 17,221.5 17,228.0 17,877.5 17,777.2 17,328.2 828.5 615.0 17,541.7 14,606.0 17,481.7 17,505.3 18,116.3 18,021.8 17,599.8 847.2 617.3 17,829.6 14,849.3 17,743.5 17,583.8 18,259.2 18,132.2 17,710.7 ............. ............. ............. 14,939.6 ............. IV I II III 2,889.3 1,123.4 702.2 567.6 134.2 421.0 315.8 105.1 1,764.9 1,460.0 304.1 –51.6 2,874.5 1,117.8 701.0 557.4 143.4 416.7 309.7 107.0 1,755.7 1,451.1 303.7 –43.3 2,868.5 1,117.4 693.9 562.3 131.1 423.4 317.7 105.5 1,750.2 1,454.1 295.2 –45.6 2,880.6 1,114.9 695.4 559.5 135.5 419.4 314.7 104.5 1,764.7 1,458.4 305.4 –50.7 2,911.9 1,141.6 721.7 586.7 134.4 419.8 315.4 104.2 1,769.5 1,461.7 307.0 –53.1 15,991.7 16,544.1 16,446.5 16,089.8 ............. ............. ............. 13,527.3 ............. 15,820.7 16,298.6 16,203.6 15,916.2 704.4 498.5 16,124.3 13,389.0 16,027.6 15,782.6 16,280.4 16,231.7 15,831.7 694.2 515.6 16,009.8 13,291.4 15,996.4 15,905.9 16,473.2 16,369.1 16,010.4 695.9 516.0 16,189.8 13,456.2 16,152.2 16,102.8 16,637.7 16,535.4 16,205.6 709.1 516.0 16,399.3 13,635.6 16,337.9 IV III IV 2,896.0 –5.2 31.3 –15.9 1,119.7 –21.9 26.7 –21.9 697.9 –15.5 26.3 –23.8 561.9 –4.2 27.2 –24.8 135.6 –11.5 –1.1 1.2 421.6 –6.5 0.4 1.8 315.5 –2.4 0.7 0.1 105.9 –4.2 –0.3 1.7 1,775.2 16.5 4.8 5.7 1,465.7 15.3 3.3 4.0 308.7 1.3 1.6 1.7 –56.1 ............. ............ ............. 16,175.6 16,785.1 16,649.7 16,311.6 ............. ............. ............. 13,725.8 ............. 355.0 413.1 388.6 379.5 ............. ............. ............. 324.1 ............. 196.9 164.5 166.3 195.2 13.2 0.0 209.5 179.4 185.7 72.8 147.4 114.3 106.0 ............. ............. ............. 90.2 ............. 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 1. Real gross domestic income is current-dollar gross domestic income deflated by the implicit price deflator for gross domestic product. NOTE. Users are cautioned that particularly for components that exhibit rapid change in prices relative to other prices in the economy, the chained-dollar estimates should not be used to measure the component’s relative importance or its contribution to the growth rate of more aggregate series. For accurate estimates of the contributions to percent changes in real gross domestic product, use table 2. See “Explanatory Note” at the end of the tables. -9- Table 4. Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Percent Change From Preceding Period Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Line 2012 2013 2014 2011 I 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 II 2012 III IV I II 2013 III IV I II 2014 III IV I II Line III IV Gross domestic product (GDP) 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.8 3.0 2.3 0.6 2.1 1.8 2.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.7 1.5 1.3 2.1 1.4 0.0 Personal consumption expenditures ... 1.8 1.2 1.3 3.0 4.1 2.1 1.4 2.1 1.3 1.3 1.8 1.0 0.5 1.7 1.0 1.4 2.3 1.2 –0.5 Goods................................................... 1.2 –0.5 –0.4 5.9 7.1 2.0 0.3 1.8 –0.4 0.5 1.0 –1.2 –2.4 1.2 –1.4 –0.6 1.8 0.1 –5.3 Durable goods .................................. –1.3 –1.8 –2.5 –0.5 1.6 –0.9 –2.1 –0.8 –1.5 –2.3 –1.8 –1.0 –1.9 –2.5 –2.6 –2.8 –1.9 –2.1 –3.6 Nondurable goods ............................ 2.4 0.2 0.6 9.1 9.6 3.3 1.4 3.1 0.1 1.9 2.4 –1.3 –2.7 3.0 –0.9 0.6 3.6 1.3 –6.2 Services ............................................... 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.6 2.6 2.2 1.9 2.3 2.2 1.7 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.3 2.3 2.6 1.8 2.0 Gross private domestic investment ..... 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.3 1.8 1.1 0.9 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.8 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.4 1.0 1.9 0.9 Fixed investment .................................. 1.4 1.8 2.1 1.5 2.0 1.1 1.0 1.9 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.9 2.4 2.0 2.6 2.8 1.1 2.3 0.9 Nonresidential................................... 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.7 2.2 1.3 1.2 2.5 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.9 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.2 Structures ..................................... 3.5 2.8 2.6 1.6 5.1 4.2 4.7 3.5 3.9 1.1 1.4 2.8 5.1 2.2 3.9 2.3 1.4 2.4 1.7 Equipment..................................... 1.0 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.4 0.4 0.9 1.6 0.0 1.2 1.6 –0.3 0.1 0.4 –0.2 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 Intellectual property products ....... 1.0 0.8 1.1 2.9 1.4 0.6 –0.7 2.9 1.0 1.0 –1.5 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.2 0.1 –2.2 Residential........................................ 0.9 5.0 5.8 0.9 1.4 0.0 0.1 –0.6 1.5 3.5 4.1 6.5 5.1 5.5 7.6 8.6 0.7 7.2 3.9 Change in private inventories............... ........... .......... .......... ........... ........... .......... .......... ........... ........... .......... .......... ........... ........... .......... .......... ........... .......... .......... .......... Net exports of goods and services ...... ........... .......... .......... ........... ........... .......... .......... ........... ........... .......... .......... ........... ........... .......... .......... ........... .......... .......... .......... Exports................................................. 0.9 0.1 0.1 10.6 8.8 2.3 –4.2 2.7 0.8 –0.2 1.3 1.0 –3.0 0.7 0.3 2.8 –0.2 –0.7 –6.8 Goods............................................... 0.4 –0.5 –0.7 12.5 9.9 2.1 –5.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 0.6 –4.0 0.2 –0.6 3.1 –1.4 –1.9 –9.4 Services............................................ 1.9 1.3 1.9 6.3 6.1 2.9 –1.4 3.7 2.2 –0.5 2.6 1.9 –0.8 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.1 –0.6 Imports ................................................. 0.5 –0.8 –0.2 17.2 12.8 –0.3 –0.9 3.8 –3.3 –4.6 3.8 0.4 –5.0 0.8 0.0 2.8 –0.8 –0.5 –7.3 Goods............................................... 0.6 –1.1 –0.5 20.3 14.6 –0.1 –0.5 4.4 –4.1 –5.4 4.2 0.4 –5.6 1.0 –0.7 3.0 –0.9 –0.7 –8.8 Services............................................ –0.1 0.3 1.1 3.3 4.5 –1.1 –3.2 0.9 0.4 –0.3 2.2 0.1 –1.7 0.2 3.4 1.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 Government consumption 1.5 1.2 1.2 4.0 4.3 1.7 –0.5 3.6 0.0 0.8 1.9 1.3 0.6 1.4 2.4 0.4 1.4 1.5 –0.6 expenditures and gross investment Federal ................................................. 0.9 1.1 0.9 4.5 3.6 1.4 –0.8 1.9 0.5 0.2 0.2 1.5 1.0 1.2 5.3 –2.5 1.7 0.6 –0.4 National defense............................... 1.1 0.8 1.1 5.5 3.9 1.2 –1.2 3.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 1.2 0.6 1.0 3.1 0.1 1.7 0.4 –0.6 Nondefense ...................................... 0.5 1.6 0.6 2.8 3.2 1.7 0.0 –0.1 0.5 0.1 0.3 2.0 1.7 1.5 9.0 –6.5 1.8 0.8 0.0 State and local...................................... 1.9 1.3 1.3 3.7 4.8 1.9 –0.3 4.7 –0.3 1.2 3.1 1.2 0.4 1.5 0.6 2.2 1.2 2.1 –0.8 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product............ 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.8 3.0 2.3 0.6 2.2 1.8 2.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.4 2.1 1.5 0.0 Gross domestic purchases................... 1.7 1.3 1.4 3.0 3.8 1.9 0.9 2.3 1.1 1.2 1.7 1.2 0.8 1.7 1.4 1.4 2.0 1.4 –0.3 Final sales to domestic purchasers...... 1.7 1.3 1.4 3.0 3.9 1.9 1.0 2.4 1.1 1.2 1.7 1.2 0.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 2.0 1.4 –0.3 Gross national product (GNP).............. 1.8 1.5 .......... 1.8 3.0 2.3 0.6 2.1 1.8 2.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.7 1.5 1.3 2.1 1.4 .......... Implicit price deflators: GDP.................................................. 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.8 2.9 2.4 0.6 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.3 2.1 1.4 –0.1 Gross domestic purchases ............... 1.7 1.3 1.4 3.0 3.8 2.0 1.0 2.3 1.1 1.0 1.9 1.3 0.6 1.6 1.3 1.4 2.0 1.3 –0.4 GNP.................................................. 1.8 1.5 .......... 1.8 3.0 2.4 0.6 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.3 2.1 1.4 .......... See “Explanatory Note” at the end of the tables. - 10 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 Table 5. Real Gross Domestic Product, Quantity Indexes [Index numbers, 2009=100] Seasonally adjusted Line 2012 2013 2014 2013 IV 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2014 I II Line III IV Gross domestic product ..................................................... 106.592 108.957 111.590 110.386 109.799 111.039 112.393 113.128 Personal consumption expenditures................................................ 106.121 108.660 111.383 109.795 110.128 110.822 111.705 112.877 Goods ............................................................................................... 109.632 113.367 117.313 114.711 115.004 116.670 118.011 119.569 Durable goods............................................................................... 120.756 128.896 137.894 131.387 132.412 136.847 139.892 142.426 Nondurable goods......................................................................... 104.828 106.780 108.740 107.664 107.669 108.252 108.932 110.107 Services............................................................................................ 104.420 106.385 108.538 107.421 107.774 108.014 108.685 109.678 Gross private domestic investment .................................................. 129.700 136.102 144.333 140.284 137.809 143.960 146.468 149.096 Fixed investment............................................................................... 116.899 122.387 128.751 125.141 125.198 128.079 130.487 131.238 Nonresidential ............................................................................... 118.263 121.865 129.338 125.090 125.591 128.538 131.308 131.916 Structures.................................................................................. 96.703 96.227 103.906 100.134 100.840 103.880 105.113 105.788 Equipment ................................................................................. 140.558 147.015 156.227 151.674 151.298 155.374 159.494 158.742 Intellectual property products.................................................... 109.587 113.278 118.535 114.289 115.595 117.153 119.655 121.735 Residential .................................................................................... 111.276 124.521 126.522 125.412 123.725 126.348 127.360 128.655 Change in private inventories ........................................................... .................... ................... ................... ................... .................... ................... ................... ................... Exports of goods and services ......................................................... 123.453 127.213 131.162 130.784 127.660 131.050 132.513 133.425 Imports of goods and services ......................................................... 121.653 123.048 127.832 124.067 124.756 128.135 127.841 130.596 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.... 95.625 93.699 93.532 93.052 92.860 93.252 94.265 93.750 Federal.............................................................................................. 99.729 94.055 92.255 91.794 91.765 91.556 93.750 91.950 State and local .................................................................................. 92.953 93.429 94.309 93.818 93.522 94.297 94.557 94.861 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product ........................................................ 105.067 107.349 109.786 108.612 108.350 109.196 110.548 111.048 Gross domestic purchases ............................................................... 106.821 108.889 111.677 110.020 109.898 111.199 112.309 113.304 Final sales to domestic purchasers .................................................. 105.336 107.326 109.923 108.300 108.488 109.407 110.518 111.282 Gross national product...................................................................... 106.846 109.147 ................... 110.669 109.883 111.119 112.557 ................... See “Explanatory Note” at the end of the tables. - 11 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Table 6. Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product [Index numbers, 2009=100] Seasonally adjusted Line 2012 2013 2014 2013 IV 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 2014 I II Line III IV Gross domestic product ..................................................... 105.174 106.739 108.309 107.347 107.694 108.261 108.643 108.638 Personal consumption expenditures (PCE)..................................... 106.062 107.333 108.757 107.789 108.156 108.782 109.116 108.975 Goods ............................................................................................... 106.712 106.211 105.781 105.917 105.769 106.240 106.278 104.836 Durable goods............................................................................... 96.466 94.712 92.365 93.820 93.148 92.711 92.216 91.384 Nondurable goods......................................................................... 111.828 112.025 112.709 112.075 112.230 113.229 113.586 111.792 Services............................................................................................ 105.745 107.919 110.299 108.759 109.390 110.097 110.584 111.125 Gross private domestic investment .................................................. 101.825 103.632 105.589 104.465 105.094 105.350 105.843 106.071 Fixed investment............................................................................... 101.955 103.822 106.037 104.734 105.461 105.752 106.344 106.589 Nonresidential ............................................................................... 102.082 103.186 104.441 103.701 104.059 104.370 104.643 104.691 Structures.................................................................................. 105.464 108.416 111.185 109.829 110.452 110.843 111.489 111.955 Equipment ................................................................................. 99.828 100.263 100.889 100.287 100.477 100.754 101.025 101.300 Intellectual property products.................................................... 102.857 103.693 104.859 104.339 104.770 105.076 105.090 104.498 Residential .................................................................................... 101.342 106.448 112.646 108.968 111.244 111.450 113.400 114.490 Change in private inventories ........................................................... .................... ................... ................... ................... .................... ................... ................... ................... Exports of goods and services ......................................................... 111.940 112.001 112.093 111.945 112.716 112.665 112.473 110.517 Imports of goods and services ......................................................... 114.501 113.529 113.306 113.286 114.082 113.862 113.709 111.572 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.... 107.286 108.618 109.870 109.330 109.431 109.805 110.210 110.034 Federal.............................................................................................. 106.341 107.530 108.499 108.791 108.105 108.563 108.721 108.607 State and local .................................................................................. 107.947 109.377 110.800 109.729 110.332 110.653 111.216 111.001 Addenda: PCE excluding food and energy 1 ..................................................... 104.678 106.084 107.575 106.603 106.922 107.447 107.821 108.111 Market-based PCE 2 ......................................................................... 105.918 107.043 108.292 107.420 107.754 108.353 108.676 108.384 Market-based PCE excluding food and energy 2 .............................. 104.300 105.557 106.857 105.995 106.269 106.747 107.117 107.294 Final sales of domestic product ........................................................ 105.188 106.762 108.370 107.380 107.742 108.316 108.713 108.709 Gross domestic purchases ............................................................... 105.738 107.105 108.587 107.667 108.030 108.553 108.925 108.840 Final sales to domestic purchasers .................................................. 105.752 107.126 108.645 107.699 108.075 108.605 108.992 108.907 Gross national product...................................................................... 105.296 106.860 ................... 107.468 107.815 108.380 108.762 ................... Implicit price deflators: Gross domestic product ................................................................ 105.166 106.733 108.272 107.301 107.658 108.231 108.603 108.578 Final sales of domestic product .................................................... 105.188 106.762 108.370 107.377 107.738 108.312 108.710 108.706 Gross domestic purchases ........................................................... 105.730 107.099 108.551 107.624 107.995 108.525 108.887 108.782 Final sales to domestic purchasers............................................... 105.752 107.126 108.645 107.696 108.072 108.602 108.989 108.904 Gross national product.................................................................. 105.288 106.854 ................... 107.423 107.778 108.350 108.722 ................... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1. Food excludes personal consumption expenditures for purchased meals and beverages, which are classified in food services. 2. This index is a supplemental measure that is based on household expenditures for which there are observable price measures. It excludes most implicit prices (for example, financial services furnished without payment) and the final consumption expenditures of nonprofit institutions serving households. Percentage changes for these series are included in the addenda to table 8 and appendix table A. See “Explanatory Note” at the end of the tables. - 12 - Table 7. Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent Change From Preceding Year Line 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Line Gross domestic product (GDP) ............................................... 4.7 4.1 1.0 1.8 2.8 3.8 3.3 2.7 1.8 –0.3 –2.8 2.5 1.6 2.3 2.2 2.4 Personal consumption expenditures ................................................. 5.3 5.1 2.6 2.6 3.1 3.8 3.5 3.0 2.2 –0.3 –1.6 1.9 2.3 1.8 2.4 2.5 Goods................................................................................................. 7.9 5.2 3.0 3.9 4.8 5.1 4.1 3.6 2.7 –2.5 –3.0 3.4 3.1 2.8 3.4 3.5 Durable goods ................................................................................ 12.8 8.6 5.2 7.3 7.1 8.2 5.4 4.3 4.6 –5.1 –5.5 6.1 6.1 7.3 6.7 7.0 Nondurable goods .......................................................................... 5.0 3.2 1.7 1.9 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 1.7 –1.1 –1.8 2.2 1.8 0.7 1.9 1.8 Services ............................................................................................. 3.9 5.0 2.4 1.9 2.2 3.2 3.2 2.7 2.0 0.8 –0.9 1.2 1.8 1.3 1.9 2.0 Gross private domestic investment ................................................... 8.4 6.5 –6.1 –0.6 4.1 8.8 6.4 2.1 –3.1 –9.4 –21.6 12.9 5.2 9.2 4.9 6.0 Fixed investment ................................................................................ 8.8 6.9 –1.6 –3.5 4.0 6.7 6.8 2.0 –2.0 –6.8 –16.7 1.5 6.3 8.3 4.7 5.2 Nonresidential................................................................................. 9.7 9.1 –2.4 –6.9 1.9 5.2 7.0 7.1 5.9 –0.7 –15.6 2.5 7.7 7.2 3.0 6.1 Structures ................................................................................... 0.1 7.8 –1.5 –17.7 –3.9 –0.4 1.7 7.2 12.7 6.1 –18.9 –16.4 2.3 13.1 –0.5 8.0 Equipment................................................................................... 12.5 9.7 –4.3 –5.4 3.2 7.7 9.6 8.6 3.2 –6.9 –22.9 15.9 13.6 6.8 4.6 6.3 Intellectual property products ..................................................... 12.4 8.9 0.5 –0.5 3.8 5.1 6.5 4.5 4.8 3.0 –1.4 1.9 3.6 3.9 3.4 4.6 Residential...................................................................................... 6.3 0.7 0.9 6.1 9.1 10.0 6.6 –7.6 –18.8 –24.0 –21.2 –2.5 0.5 13.5 11.9 1.6 Change in private inventories............................................................. .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... Net exports of goods and services .................................................... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... Exports............................................................................................... 2.6 8.6 –5.8 –1.7 1.8 9.8 6.3 9.0 9.3 5.7 –8.8 11.9 6.9 3.3 3.0 3.1 Goods............................................................................................. 4.2 10.1 –6.2 –3.4 1.9 8.6 7.3 9.4 7.5 6.1 –12.1 14.4 6.5 3.7 2.8 4.0 Services.......................................................................................... –1.4 4.7 –5.0 2.7 1.5 12.7 3.8 8.1 13.7 4.8 –1.1 6.8 7.6 2.4 3.6 1.1 Imports ............................................................................................... 10.1 13.0 –2.8 3.7 4.5 11.4 6.3 6.3 2.5 –2.6 –13.7 12.7 5.5 2.3 1.1 3.9 Goods............................................................................................. 12.8 13.1 –3.2 3.7 4.9 11.2 6.7 5.9 1.8 –3.7 –15.8 14.9 5.8 2.1 0.9 4.0 Services.......................................................................................... –3.0 12.6 –0.6 3.3 2.1 12.7 4.5 8.6 6.2 3.7 –3.8 3.8 4.0 3.4 2.2 3.2 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment ..... 3.4 1.9 3.8 4.4 2.2 1.6 0.6 1.5 1.6 2.8 3.2 0.1 –3.0 –1.4 –2.0 –0.2 Federal ............................................................................................... 2.0 0.3 3.9 7.2 6.8 4.5 1.7 2.5 1.7 6.8 5.7 4.4 –2.7 –1.8 –5.7 –1.9 National defense............................................................................. 1.5 –0.9 3.5 7.0 8.5 6.0 2.0 2.0 2.5 7.5 5.4 3.2 –2.3 –3.3 –6.6 –2.2 Nondefense .................................................................................... 2.7 2.3 4.7 7.4 4.1 2.0 1.3 3.5 0.3 5.5 6.2 6.4 –3.4 1.0 –4.1 –1.5 State and local.................................................................................... 4.2 2.8 3.7 2.9 –0.4 –0.1 0.0 0.9 1.5 0.3 1.6 –2.7 –3.3 –1.2 0.5 0.9 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product.......................................................... 4.7 4.2 1.9 1.3 2.8 3.4 3.4 2.6 2.0 0.2 –2.0 1.1 1.7 2.2 2.2 2.3 Gross domestic purchases................................................................. 5.5 4.8 1.2 2.3 3.1 4.3 3.5 2.6 1.1 –1.3 –3.8 2.9 1.6 2.2 1.9 2.6 Final sales to domestic purchasers.................................................... 5.6 4.9 2.0 1.8 3.1 3.9 3.6 2.6 1.4 –0.9 –3.1 1.5 1.7 2.1 1.9 2.4 Gross domestic income 1 ................................................................... 4.4 4.7 1.1 1.4 2.3 3.7 3.6 4.0 0.1 –0.8 –2.6 2.7 2.2 3.4 2.2 .......... Gross national product ....................................................................... 4.8 4.2 1.1 1.7 2.9 3.9 3.3 2.4 2.2 0.0 –2.9 2.8 1.8 2.1 2.2 .......... Real disposable personal income ...................................................... 3.3 5.0 2.8 3.1 2.7 3.6 1.5 4.0 2.1 1.5 –0.4 1.0 2.5 3.0 –0.2 2.4 Price indexes: Gross domestic purchases ............................................................. 1.6 2.6 1.9 1.4 2.2 2.9 3.5 3.2 2.7 2.9 –0.2 1.5 2.4 1.7 1.3 1.4 Gross domestic purchases excluding food and energy 2 ............... 1.5 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.7 3.2 3.0 2.5 2.3 0.5 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.5 GDP................................................................................................ 1.4 2.3 2.3 1.5 2.0 2.7 3.2 3.1 2.7 1.9 0.8 1.2 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.5 GDP excluding food and energy 2 .................................................. 1.5 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.7 3.4 3.1 2.6 2.1 0.5 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.6 Personal consumption expenditures............................................... 1.5 2.5 1.9 1.3 2.0 2.4 2.9 2.7 2.5 3.1 –0.1 1.7 2.5 1.8 1.2 1.3 1. Gross domestic income deflated by the implicit price deflator for gross domestic product. 2. Food excludes personal consumption expenditures for purchased meals and beverages, which are classified in food services. - 13 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 Table 8. Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent Change From Quarter One Year Ago 2011 2012 2013 2014 Line Line I 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Gross domestic product (GDP) .............................................. 1.9 1.7 1.2 1.7 2.6 2.3 2.7 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.3 3.1 1.9 2.6 2.7 2.5 Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) ..................................... 3.0 2.4 2.2 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.8 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.8 Goods................................................................................................ 4.9 3.4 2.6 1.7 2.1 2.7 3.3 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.6 2.4 3.5 3.8 4.2 Durable goods ............................................................................... 9.2 5.4 5.0 4.8 6.2 7.5 8.2 7.5 6.9 7.5 6.7 5.9 4.6 6.9 8.0 8.4 Nondurable goods ......................................................................... 2.9 2.4 1.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.0 1.7 1.4 1.9 2.5 1.3 1.9 1.8 2.3 Services ............................................................................................ 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.4 2.1 1.8 2.1 2.1 Gross private domestic investment .................................................. 5.6 4.3 1.3 9.6 13.5 10.9 11.0 2.1 2.3 2.6 6.2 8.7 4.8 7.7 5.4 6.3 Fixed investment ............................................................................... 5.0 3.8 8.1 8.4 11.1 10.1 6.6 5.8 4.2 4.3 5.2 5.1 4.5 5.6 5.9 4.9 Nonresidential................................................................................ 6.8 6.1 8.7 9.0 10.8 9.6 5.1 3.7 2.6 1.9 3.0 4.7 4.7 6.8 7.6 5.5 Structures .................................................................................. –4.6 –0.9 6.5 8.0 22.0 17.0 10.1 4.8 –2.6 –3.3 –0.4 4.4 8.5 9.8 8.2 5.6 Equipment.................................................................................. 16.2 11.4 13.7 13.1 10.9 10.0 3.6 3.3 3.6 3.8 4.8 6.2 4.7 7.1 8.7 4.7 Intellectual property products .................................................... 2.6 3.9 3.7 4.1 3.9 4.4 3.8 3.4 4.8 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.2 4.1 5.6 6.5 Residential..................................................................................... –2.2 –6.0 5.1 6.0 12.4 12.1 13.6 15.8 11.4 15.2 14.5 6.9 3.5 1.2 –0.7 2.6 Change in private inventories............................................................ .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... ........... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... Net exports of goods and services ................................................... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... ........... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... Exports.............................................................................................. 9.0 8.2 6.3 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.1 2.4 1.9 2.2 3.0 5.1 2.8 3.9 3.8 2.0 Goods............................................................................................ 8.5 7.1 5.7 4.8 4.5 4.6 4.2 1.4 0.8 1.5 2.4 6.6 3.4 4.9 5.3 2.5 Services......................................................................................... 10.1 10.6 7.6 2.7 2.8 1.4 0.5 4.8 4.3 3.9 4.3 1.8 1.3 1.8 0.4 1.0 Imports .............................................................................................. 10.0 5.8 3.0 3.5 3.1 3.4 2.4 0.4 –0.1 1.0 1.2 2.5 3.1 3.8 3.4 5.3 Goods............................................................................................ 11.5 5.9 2.7 3.4 2.6 3.4 2.6 0.0 –0.4 0.7 1.0 2.5 3.0 3.9 3.5 5.7 Services......................................................................................... 2.9 5.1 4.3 3.8 6.0 3.3 1.8 2.6 1.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 3.9 3.2 2.8 3.1 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment .... –2.3 –3.1 –3.7 –3.0 –1.8 –1.8 –0.5 –1.7 –2.0 –1.8 –2.4 –1.9 –1.1 –0.7 0.3 0.8 Federal .............................................................................................. –0.5 –2.2 –4.0 –4.0 –2.0 –2.6 0.2 –2.6 –4.4 –5.0 –7.0 –6.3 –3.9 –3.2 –0.6 0.2 National defense............................................................................ –1.3 –1.2 –2.5 –4.1 –2.3 –4.2 –1.9 –4.9 –5.8 –6.0 –8.5 –6.1 –4.4 –3.7 –0.1 –0.4 Nondefense ................................................................................... 0.8 –3.8 –6.7 –3.9 –1.6 0.1 4.1 1.4 –2.0 –3.3 –4.4 –6.6 –3.1 –2.6 –1.5 1.2 State and local................................................................................... –3.6 –3.8 –3.4 –2.3 –1.7 –1.2 –1.0 –1.0 –0.3 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product......................................................... 1.8 1.6 2.1 1.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.6 1.8 2.3 2.8 2.2 Gross domestic purchases................................................................ 2.3 1.5 0.9 1.7 2.6 2.3 2.6 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.8 2.0 2.6 2.7 3.0 Final sales to domestic purchasers................................................... 2.2 1.4 1.7 1.5 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.2 1.9 2.3 2.7 2.8 Gross domestic income 1 .................................................................. 2.6 2.4 1.7 2.1 3.8 3.4 3.1 3.3 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.0 1.4 1.7 2.4 .......... Gross national product ...................................................................... 2.0 1.8 1.5 2.0 2.6 2.3 2.4 1.3 1.5 1.6 2.3 3.2 1.9 2.5 2.6 .......... Real disposable personal income ..................................................... 3.8 2.3 2.3 1.7 2.1 2.8 2.2 5.0 –0.1 0.3 0.9 –1.9 2.4 2.2 2.2 3.1 Price indexes: Gross domestic purchases ............................................................ 1.9 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.2 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.1 Gross domestic purchases excluding food and energy 2 .............. 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.3 GDP............................................................................................... 1.9 2.2 2.3 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.2 GDP excluding food and energy 2 ................................................. 1.7 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.4 PCE ............................................................................................... 1.7 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.4 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.1 PCE excluding food and energy 2.................................................. 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.4 Market-based PCE 3...................................................................... 1.6 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.5 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.5 1.4 0.9 Market-based PCE excluding food and energy 3 ........................... 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 1. Gross domestic income deflated by the implicit price deflator for gross domestic product. 2. Food excludes personal consumption expenditures for purchased meals and beverages, which are classified in food services. 3. This index is a supplemental measure that is based on household expenditures for which there are observable price measures. It excludes most implicit prices (for example, financial services furnished without payment) and the final consumption expenditures of nonprofit institutions serving households. - 14 - Table 9. Relation of Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, and National Income [Billions of dollars] Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Line 2012 2013 2014 2013 IV 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Gross domestic product ................................................................................................... Plus: Income receipts from the rest of the world ................................................................. Less: Income payments to the rest of the world .................................................................. Equals: Gross national product ....................................................................................... Less: Consumption of fixed capital...................................................................................... Less: Statistical discrepancy ............................................................................................... Equals: National income................................................................................................... Compensation of employees ........................................................................................... Wages and salaries...................................................................................................... Supplements to wages and salaries ............................................................................ Proprietors’ income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments ....... Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment ..................................... Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments............ Net interest and miscellaneous payments ....................................................................... Taxes on production and imports less subsidies.............................................................. Business current transfer payments (net) ........................................................................ Current surplus of government enterprises ..................................................................... Addendum: 18 Gross domestic income ................................................................................................... 2014 I II Line III IV 16,163.2 16,768.1 17,420.7 793.8 810.4 ................ 566.5 586.1 ................ 16,390.5 16,992.4 ................ 2,530.2 2,627.2 2,735.6 –209.2 –211.9 ................ 14,069.5 14,577.1 ................ 8,606.5 8,844.8 9,207.0 6,932.1 7,124.7 7,432.4 1,674.4 1,720.1 1,774.6 1,260.2 1,336.6 1,380.3 533.0 595.8 640.6 2,022.8 2,106.9 ................ 491.7 499.8 485.2 1,074.0 1,102.3 1,145.9 106.7 120.6 141.0 –25.3 –29.6 –35.0 17,078.3 831.8 588.9 17,321.2 2,670.5 –119.5 14,770.2 8,946.8 7,208.5 1,738.3 1,342.7 613.3 2,143.8 511.2 1,116.8 126.6 –31.0 17,044.0 17,328.2 17,599.8 17,710.7 822.6 828.5 847.2 ................ 611.6 615.0 617.3 ................ 17,255.0 17,541.7 17,829.6 ................ 2,698.7 2,722.3 2,750.4 2,771.2 –177.5 –153.5 –143.7 ................ 14,733.7 14,972.9 15,222.9 ................ 9,096.2 9,159.5 9,238.7 9,333.7 7,339.8 7,391.7 7,458.4 7,539.5 1,756.4 1,767.8 1,780.3 1,794.1 1,351.0 1,381.0 1,386.4 1,402.9 622.9 635.4 646.7 657.2 1,942.1 2,106.2 2,170.7 ................ 506.5 461.0 479.3 494.0 1,126.8 1,140.5 1,155.0 1,161.5 119.2 123.0 182.4 139.1 –31.1 –33.6 –36.3 –39.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 16,372.3 17,197.8 17,221.5 18 16,980.0 ................ 17,481.7 17,743.5 ................ Table 10. Personal Income and Its Disposition [Billions of dollars] Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Line 2012 2013 2014 2013 IV Personal income 1 ............................................................................................................. Compensation of employees ........................................................................................... Wages and salaries...................................................................................................... Supplements to wages and salaries ............................................................................ Proprietors’ income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments ....... Farm............................................................................................................................. Nonfarm ....................................................................................................................... Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment ..................................... Personal income receipts on assets ................................................................................ Personal interest income.............................................................................................. Personal dividend income ............................................................................................ Personal current transfer receipts .................................................................................... Less: Contributions for government social insurance, domestic ...................................... Less: Personal current taxes ............................................................................................... Equals: Disposable personal income.............................................................................. Less: Personal outlays......................................................................................................... Equals: Personal saving ................................................................................................... Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income ................................... Addenda: 19 Personal income excluding current transfer receipts, billions of chained (2009) dollars 2 20 Disposable personal income, billions of chained (2009) dollars 2.................................... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 2014 I Line II III IV 13,887.7 8,606.5 6,932.1 1,674.4 1,260.2 72.3 1,187.9 533.0 2,088.6 1,255.9 832.7 2,350.7 951.2 1,503.7 12,384.0 11,487.9 896.2 7.2 14,166.9 8,844.8 7,124.7 1,720.1 1,336.6 83.2 1,253.5 595.8 2,079.7 1,255.2 824.5 2,414.5 1,104.5 1,661.8 12,505.1 11,897.1 608.1 4.9 14,716.6 14,311.7 14,484.7 9,207.0 8,946.8 9,096.2 7,432.4 7,208.5 7,339.8 1,774.6 1,738.3 1,756.4 1,380.3 1,342.7 1,351.0 63.7 70.1 58.1 1,316.6 1,272.6 1,292.9 640.6 613.3 622.9 2,124.6 2,094.2 2,090.4 1,264.0 1,263.2 1,262.4 860.7 831.0 828.0 2,523.5 2,432.3 2,470.9 1,159.5 1,117.5 1,146.6 1,735.7 1,688.1 1,711.8 12,980.9 12,623.7 12,772.9 12,355.7 12,070.8 12,146.9 625.1 552.9 626.1 4.8 4.4 4.9 14,660.5 9,159.5 7,391.7 1,767.8 1,381.0 73.4 1,307.6 635.4 2,127.0 1,270.0 857.0 2,511.8 1,154.2 1,715.3 12,945.2 12,289.6 655.6 5.1 14,792.1 9,238.7 7,458.4 1,780.3 1,386.4 62.2 1,324.2 646.7 2,138.3 1,266.5 871.8 2,545.3 1,163.3 1,741.8 13,050.3 12,433.0 617.2 4.7 14,928.9 9,333.7 7,539.5 1,794.1 1,402.9 61.2 1,341.7 657.2 2,142.9 1,257.0 885.9 2,566.1 1,173.9 1,773.8 13,155.1 12,553.4 601.7 4.6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 10,877.6 11,676.2 10,949.5 11,650.8 11,211.1 11,021.2 11,935.6 11,711.7 11,168.1 11,900.4 11,223.9 11,960.3 11,344.8 12,071.9 19 20 11,108.2 11,810.1 1. Personal income is also equal to national income less corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, taxes on production and imports less subsidies, contributions for government social insurance, net interest and miscellaneous payments, business current transfer payments (net), and current surplus of government enterprises, plus personal income receipts on assets, and personal current transfer receipts. 2. The current-dollar measure is deflated by the implicit price deflator for personal consumption expenditures. - 15 - Appendix Table A. Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Aggregates and Price Indexes: Percent Change From Preceding Period and Contributions to Percent Change Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Line 2012 2013 2014 2011 I II 2012 III IV I II 2013 III IV I II 2014 III IV I Line II III IV 4.6 11.4 0.6 11.7 21.3 4.1 14.6 4.6 3.4 4.6 24.2 5.5 5.0 2.6 9.5 3.9 3.0 2.0 3.4 3.1 27.2 –21.2 4.4 3.5 19.5 –46.2 4.9 2.9 6.6 5.2 4.9 2.6 10.4 9.6 6.3 3.2 Percent change from preceding period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Gross domestic product (GDP) and related aggregates: GDP ................................................................................. Goods............................................................................... Services ........................................................................... Structures......................................................................... Motor vehicle output......................................................... GDP excluding motor vehicle output ................................ Final sales of computers 1 ............................................... GDP excluding final sales of computers .......................... Research and development ............................................. GDP excluding research and development...................... Farm gross value added 2 ................................................ Nonfarm business gross value added 3 ........................... Price indexes: GDP ................................................................................. GDP excluding food and energy 4 .................................... GDP excluding final sales of computers .......................... Gross domestic purchases............................................... Gross domestic purchases excluding food and energy 4 Gross domestic purchases excluding final sales of computers to domestic purchasers .............................. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) ..................... PCE excluding food and energy 4 .................................... Market-based PCE 5 ........................................................ Market-based PCE excluding food and energy 5 ............. 2.3 4.5 0.8 7.0 12.9 2.1 11.9 2.3 0.9 2.4 –5.7 3.2 2.2 4.2 1.2 2.9 4.8 2.1 12.9 2.2 0.9 2.3 14.3 2.6 2.4 –1.5 2.9 4.0 –1.7 5.7 1.5 –0.1 1.1 3.4 –13.6 9.1 8.6 32.8 –7.1 2.2 –2.2 3.2 6.9 9.0 8.2 2.4 –1.6 2.9 2.0 –3.0 –1.6 2.4 –1.5 3.1 –7.8 19.1 –31.5 3.1 –2.5 4.5 0.8 –1.4 1.0 9.2 12.0 0.6 10.2 0.8 –0.1 0.9 –0.1 1.1 4.6 2.3 1.6 2.5 0.1 15.7 2.4 2.7 3.4 –0.9 –0.7 1.2 0.8 2.2 0.3 7.5 11.5 4.2 1.2 2.2 23.1 28.4 6.1 2.6 –6.2 4.1 1.6 1.5 2.5 0.2 22.4 15.0 –10.9 21.9 35.5 4.5 2.2 1.7 2.4 –0.1 3.2 –1.1 1.9 1.0 3.8 4.6 2.3 1.6 2.5 0.0 26.7 –11.0 0.1 –28.3 –14.1 5.8 3.3 2.3 3.7 0.1 2.7 7.6 1.3 –4.4 17.9 2.4 8.7 2.7 1.2 2.8 82.6 2.4 1.8 4.5 0.6 10.8 1.2 1.1 12.2 8.3 7.6 –10.6 1.6 5.0 16.1 –4.0 1.7 4.6 0.2 –2.9 1.8 4.7 14.1 28.3 2.0 5.6 3.5 –2.1 8.1 –8.5 1.8 1.4 –0.4 –3.8 18.5 3.3 3.1 –2.3 6.2 17.8 3.5 –2.2 –0.8 2.9 3.6 –2.2 –3.2 –49.9 4.7 –2.4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.1 1.8 3.0 2.0 3.0 2.8 3.0 3.8 2.8 2.3 1.9 2.4 1.9 1.8 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.9 1.0 2.1 2.6 2.1 2.3 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.9 1.1 1.4 2.1 1.3 2.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.8 1.2 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 2.1 1.8 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.6 0.0 0.7 0.0 –0.3 0.7 13 14 15 16 17 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.2 3.1 3.0 1.4 3.2 1.3 3.9 4.1 2.5 4.2 2.4 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.1 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.6 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.1 1.3 1.9 1.2 1.8 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.0 1.5 0.8 0.5 1.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.0 1.3 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 2.0 2.3 2.0 2.2 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.4 –0.3 –0.5 1.1 –1.1 0.7 18 19 20 21 22 0.1 2.7 1.8 4.5 3.5 –2.1 4.6 5.0 2.6 23 0.16 3.18 2.43 –2.69 0.76 0.74 1.10 0.86 0.84 0.60 –0.03 –0.29 0.20 –0.31 0.47 0.09 0.06 –0.02 0.03 0.07 0.01 –0.08 –0.02 0.07 3.34 0.40 0.85 0.55 0.06 0.09 2.87 1.18 1.84 1.22 0.26 0.24 0.71 –0.70 0.08 –0.23 0.16 0.13 24 25 26 27 28 29 Contributions to percent change in real gross domestic product 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 Percent change at annual rate: Gross domestic product ............................................ Percentage points at annual rates: Goods .................................................................................. Services ............................................................................... Structures ............................................................................ Motor vehicle output............................................................. Final sales of computers...................................................... Research and development ................................................. 2.3 2.2 2.4 1.33 0.51 0.48 0.31 0.05 0.02 1.27 0.74 0.21 0.13 0.05 0.02 1.22 0.94 0.26 0.23 0.03 0.05 –1.5 2.9 0.8 4.6 2.3 1.6 –0.53 1.65 –0.42 4.47 0.76 0.84 –0.03 0.71 0.66 –0.40 0.73 0.49 –0.98 0.59 0.60 0.51 0.77 0.29 0.65 –0.18 0.27 0.52 0.66 0.16 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.08 0.06 –0.05 –0.07 –0.04 0.00 0.08 –0.03 0.05 2.5 1.03 –0.28 2.23 1.37 0.18 0.83 0.09 0.15 –0.32 0.07 –0.17 0.45 0.08 0.12 0.04 0.03 0.10 0.03 1. For some components of final sales of computers, includes computer parts. 2. Farm output less intermediate goods and services purchased. 3. Consists of GDP less gross value added of farm, of households and institutions, and of general government. 4. Food excludes personal consumption expenditures for purchased meals and beverages, which are classified in food services. 5. This index is a supplemental measure that is based on household expenditures for which there are observable price measures. It excludes most implicit prices (for example, financial services furnished without payment) and the final consumption expenditures of nonprofit institutions serving households. See “Explanatory Note” at the end of the tables. - 16 - Explanatory Note: NIPA Measures of Quantities and Prices Current-dollar GDP is a measure of the market value of goods, services, and structures produced in the economy in a particular period. Changes in current-dollar GDP can be decomposed into quantity and price components. Quantities, or "real" measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with the reference year -- at present, the year 2009 -- equal to 100. Annual changes in quantities and prices are calculated using a Fisher formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent years. (Quarterly changes in quantities and prices are calculated using a Fisher formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent quarters; quarterly indexes are adjusted for consistency to the annual indexes before percent changes are calculated.) For example, the 2008-09 annual percent change in real GDP uses prices for 2008 and 2009 as weights, and the 2008-09 annual percent change in GDP prices uses quantities for 2008 and 2009 as weights. These annual changes are "chained" (multiplied) together to form time series of quantity and price indexes. Percent changes in Fisher indexes are not affected by the choice of reference year. (BEA also publishes a measure of the price level known as the implicit price deflator (IPD), which is calculated as the ratio of the current-dollar value to the corresponding chained-dollar value, multiplied by 100. The values of the IPD are very close to the values of the corresponding "chain-type" price index.) Index numbers of quantity and price indexes for GDP and its major components are presented in this release in tables 5 and 6. Percent changes from the preceding period are presented in tables 1, 4, 7, 8, and appendix table A. Contributions by major components to the percent change in real GDP are presented in table 2. Measures of real GDP and its major components are also presented in dollar-denominated form, designated "chained (2009) dollar estimates." For most series, these estimates, which are presented in table 3, are computed by multiplying the current-dollar value in 2009 by a corresponding quantity index number and then dividing by 100. For example, if a current-dollar GDP component equaled $100 in 2009 and if real output for this component increased 10 percent in 2010, then the chained (2009) dollar value of this component in 2010 would be $110 (= $100 x 110 / 100). Percent changes calculated from chained-dollar estimates and from chain-type quantity indexes are the same; any differences will be small and due to rounding. Chained-dollar values for the detailed GDP components will not necessarily sum to the chained-dollar estimate of GDP (or to any intermediate aggregate). This is because the relative prices used as weights for any period other than the reference year differ from those of the reference year. A measure of the extent of such differences is provided by a “residual” line, which indicates the difference between GDP (or other major aggregate) and the sum of the most detailed components in the table. For periods close to the reference year, when there usually has not been much change in the relative prices that are used as weights, the residuals tend to be small, and the chained-dollar estimates can be used to approximate the contributions to growth and to aggregate the detailed estimates. For periods further from the reference year, the residuals tend to be larger, and the chained-dollar estimates are less useful for analyses of contributions to growth. Thus, the contributions to percent change shown in table 2 provide a better measure of the composition of GDP growth. In particular, for components for which relative prices are changing rapidly, calculation of contributions using chained-dollar estimates may be misleading even just a few years from the reference year. Reference "Chained-Dollar Indexes: Issues, Tips on Their Use, and Upcoming Changes," November 2003 Survey, pp. 8-16. - 17 -