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NEWS RELEASE EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EST, THURSDAY, JANUARY 30, 2014 BEA 14-03 Lisa Mataloni: Recorded message: (202) 606-5304 (GDP) (202) 606-5306 gdpniwd@bea.gov GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FOURTH QUARTER AND ANNUAL 2013 (ADVANCE ESTIMATE) Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.1 percent. The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 4 and "Comparisons of Revisions to GDP" on page 5). The "second" estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on February 28, 2014. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from federal government spending and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected a deceleration in private inventory investment, a larger decrease in federal government spending, a downturn in residential fixed investment, and decelerations in state and local government spending and in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by accelerations in exports and in PCE and a deceleration in imports. The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent in the third. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in the third. NOTE. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2009) dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures. This news release is available on BEA’s Web site along with the Technical Note and Highlights related to this release. Real personal consumption expenditures increased 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent in the third. Durable goods increased 5.9 percent, compared with an increase of 7.9 percent. Nondurable goods increased 4.4 percent, compared with an increase of 2.9 percent. Services increased 2.5 percent, compared with an increase of 0.7 percent. Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 4.8 percent in the third. Nonresidential structures decreased 1.2 percent, in contrast to an increase of 13.4 percent. Equipment increased 6.9 percent, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent. Intellectual property products increased 3.2 percent, compared with an increase of 5.8 percent. Real residential fixed investment decreased 9.8 percent, in contrast to an increase of 10.3 percent. Real exports of goods and services increased 11.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 3.9 percent in the third. Real imports of goods and services increased 0.9 percent, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent. Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 12.6 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with a decrease of 1.5 percent in the third. National defense decreased 14.0 percent, compared with a decrease of 0.5 percent. Nondefense decreased 10.3 percent, compared with a decrease of 3.1 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 0.5 percent, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent. The change in real private inventories added 0.42 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after adding 1.67 percentage points to the third-quarter change. Private businesses increased inventories $127.2 billion in the fourth quarter, following increases of $115.7 billion in the third quarter and $56.6 billion in the second. Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent in the third. Gross domestic purchases Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 3.9 percent in the third. Disposition of personal income Current-dollar personal income increased $69.4 billion (2.0 percent) in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $140.0 billion (4.0 percent) in the third. The deceleration in personal income primarily reflected downturns in personal dividend income and in farm proprietors’ income and a deceleration in personal current transfer receipts that were partly offset by an acceleration in wages and salaries. Personal current taxes increased $23.7 billion in the fourth quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $11.0 billion in the third. -2- Disposable personal income increased $45.7 billion (1.5 percent) in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $151.0 billion (5.0 percent) in the third. Real disposable personal income increased 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 3.0 percent in the third. Personal outlays increased $118.6 billion (4.0 percent) in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $113.4 billion (3.9 percent) in the third. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was $545.1 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with $618.0 billion in the third. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 4.3 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with 4.9 percent in the third. For a comparison of personal saving in BEA’s national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board’s financial accounts of the United States and data on changes in net worth, go to www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp. Current-dollar GDP Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 4.6 percent, or $189.6 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $17,102.5 billion. In the third quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 6.2 percent, or $251.9 billion. 2013 GDP Real GDP increased 1.9 percent in 2013 (that is, from the 2012 annual level to the 2013 annual level), compared with an increase of 2.8 percent in 2012. The increase in real GDP in 2013 primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and private inventory investment that were partly offset by a negative contribution from federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The deceleration in real GDP in 2013 primarily reflected a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, a larger decrease in federal government spending, and decelerations in PCE and in exports that were partly offset by a deceleration in imports and a smaller decrease in state and local government spending. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.2 percent in 2013, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent in 2012. Current-dollar GDP increased 3.4 percent, or $558.4 billion, in 2013, compared with an increase of 4.6 percent, or $710.8 billion, in 2012. During 2013 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2012 to the fourth quarter of 2013) real GDP increased 2.7 percent. Real GDP increased 2.0 percent during 2012. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.1 percent during 2013, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in 2012. -3- Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. Within a few days after the release, a detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site. In the middle of each month, an analysis of the current quarterly estimate of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site; click on Survey of Current Business, "GDP and the Economy." For information on revisions, see "Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components." BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements. * * * Next release -- February 28, 2014 at 8:30 A.M. EST for: Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2013 (Second Estimate) * * * Release dates in 2014 Gross Domestic Product 2013: IV and 2013 annual 2014: I 2014: II January 30 February 28 March 27 April 30 May 29 June 25 July 30 October 30 August 28 November 25 September 26 December 23 ……….. March 27 May 29 June 25 August 28 November 25 September 26 December 23 Advance…… Second…….. Third………. 2014: III Corporate Profits Preliminary... Revised……. -4- Comparisons of Revisions to GDP Quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule: "Advance" estimates, based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency, are released near the end of the first month after the end of the quarter; as more detailed and more comprehensive data become available, "second" and "third" estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively. The "latest" estimates reflect the results of both annual and comprehensive revisions. Annual revisions, which generally cover the quarters of the 3 most recent calendar years, are usually carried out each summer and incorporate newly available major annual source data. Comprehensive (or benchmark) revisions are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as improvements in concepts and methods that update the accounts to portray more accurately the evolving U.S. economy. The table below shows comparisons of the revisions between quarterly percent changes of current-dollar and real GDP for the different vintages of the estimates. From the advance estimate to the second estimate (one month later), the average revision to real GDP without regard to sign is 0.5 percentage point, while from the advance estimate to the third estimate (two months later), it is 0.6 percentage point. From the advance estimate to the latest estimate, the average revision without regard to sign is 1.3 percentage points. The average revision (with regard to sign) from the advance estimate to the latest estimate is 0.3 percentage point, which is larger than the average revisions from the advance estimate to the second or to the third estimates. The larger average revisions to the latest estimate reflect the fact that comprehensive revisions include major improvements, such as the incorporation of BEA’s latest benchmark input-output accounts. The quarterly estimates correctly indicate the direction of change of real GDP 97 percent of the time, correctly indicate whether GDP is accelerating or decelerating 72 percent of the time, and correctly indicate whether real GDP growth is above, near, or below trend growth more than four-fifths of the time. Revisions Between Quarterly Percent Changes of GDP: Vintage Comparisons [Annual rates] Vintages compared Average Average without regard to sign Standard deviation of revisions without regard to sign Current-dollar GDP Advance to second.... Advance to third........ Second to third........... 0.2 .2 .0 0.5 .7 .3 0.4 .4 .2 Advance to latest....... .3 1.3 1.0 Real GDP Advance to second..... Advance to third......... Second to third............ 0.1 .1 .0 0.5 .6 .2 0.4 .4 .2 Advance to latest........ .3 1.3 1.0 NOTE. These comparisons are based on the period from 1983 through 2010. -5- Table 1. Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Percent Change From Preceding Period Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Line 2011 2012 2013 2010 I 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 Gross domestic product (GDP) ..... 1.8 2.8 1.9 Personal consumption expenditures ....... 2.5 2.2 2.0 Goods....................................................... 3.4 3.3 3.7 Durable goods ...................................... 6.6 7.7 7.1 Nondurable goods ................................ 1.9 1.4 2.1 Services ................................................... 2.1 1.6 1.2 Gross private domestic investment ......... 4.9 9.5 5.4 Fixed investment ...................................... 6.2 8.3 4.3 Nonresidential....................................... 7.6 7.3 2.6 Structures ......................................... 2.1 12.7 1.3 Equipment......................................... 12.7 7.6 2.9 Intellectual property products ........... 4.4 3.4 3.1 Residential............................................ 0.5 12.9 12.0 Change in private inventories ................... ........... .......... .......... Net exports of goods and services .......... ........... .......... .......... Exports ..................................................... 7.1 3.5 2.8 Goods ................................................... 7.1 3.8 2.5 Services................................................ 7.0 3.0 3.4 Imports ..................................................... 4.9 2.2 1.4 Goods ................................................... 5.2 2.1 1.2 Services................................................ 3.1 2.7 2.5 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment ............................ –3.2 –1.0 –2.2 Federal ..................................................... –2.6 –1.4 –5.1 National defense................................... –2.3 –3.2 –7.0 Nondefense .......................................... –3.0 1.8 –2.0 State and local.......................................... –3.6 –0.7 –0.2 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product................ 2.0 2.6 1.7 Gross domestic purchases....................... 1.7 2.6 1.7 Final sales to domestic purchasers .......... 1.8 2.4 1.5 Gross domestic income (GDI) 1 ............... 2.5 2.5 ........... Gross national product (GNP) .................. 2.1 2.7 ........... Disposable personal income .................... 2.4 2.0 0.7 Current-dollar measures: GDP...................................................... 3.8 4.6 3.4 Final sales of domestic product ............ 4.0 4.4 3.2 Gross domestic purchases ................... 4.0 4.3 3.0 Final sales to domestic purchasers ...... 4.2 4.1 2.8 GDI ....................................................... 4.5 4.3 ........... GNP...................................................... 4.2 4.4 ........... Disposable personal income ................ 4.8 3.9 1.9 II 2011 III IV I II 2012 III IV I II 2013 III IV I II Line III IV 1.6 3.9 2.8 2.8 –1.3 3.2 1.4 4.9 3.7 1.2 2.8 0.1 1.1 2.5 4.1 3.2 2.1 3.3 2.8 4.3 2.1 1.5 2.1 2.4 2.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 2.3 1.8 2.0 3.3 4.0 5.2 3.8 7.6 2.7 0.2 1.2 5.0 4.6 2.2 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.1 4.5 4.9 5.4 12.5 6.7 12.9 5.4 –0.8 5.2 13.5 9.8 2.9 8.3 10.5 5.8 6.2 7.9 5.9 3.4 1.9 2.5 5.2 1.4 0.7 –0.5 1.3 2.2 1.8 1.6 0.6 2.7 1.6 2.9 4.4 1.2 2.4 2.2 2.6 1.8 2.1 2.5 1.1 2.1 1.7 0.7 0.6 1.5 1.2 0.7 2.5 13.6 22.3 13.7 –3.5 –7.5 14.2 2.5 31.9 10.5 –1.6 6.5 –2.4 4.7 9.2 17.2 3.4 0.8 13.6 –0.4 8.5 –0.5 8.6 14.8 10.0 8.6 4.7 2.7 11.6 –1.5 6.5 5.9 0.9 4.2 11.4 8.3 8.6 –0.9 9.9 16.7 9.5 5.8 4.5 0.3 9.8 –4.6 4.7 4.8 3.8 –25.0 11.8 –5.8 7.7 –29.8 33.7 28.4 14.4 7.0 6.9 5.9 17.6 –25.7 17.6 13.4 –1.2 31.2 23.3 18.0 11.8 12.0 4.3 20.3 10.2 8.3 5.3 –3.9 8.9 1.6 3.3 0.2 6.9 –1.6 –2.0 6.1 5.0 3.7 4.9 5.3 5.5 1.3 1.8 2.8 5.7 3.7 –1.5 5.8 3.2 –12.2 23.2 –30.7 7.9 1.7 2.7 6.1 12.2 23.0 5.7 14.1 19.8 12.5 14.2 10.3 –9.8 .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... ........... ........... ........... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... ........... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... ........... ........... ........... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... ........... 6.4 9.5 10.9 12.4 3.8 4.9 7.0 2.7 4.2 3.8 0.4 1.1 –1.3 8.0 3.9 11.4 11.0 11.7 8.6 13.0 4.4 3.7 5.7 7.7 1.8 5.2 1.6 –3.0 –2.8 9.4 5.6 15.1 –3.1 4.6 16.3 11.0 2.4 7.7 10.0 –8.1 10.0 0.8 –2.6 11.3 2.2 4.8 0.1 3.4 11.9 20.2 14.5 0.9 2.8 0.7 4.9 5.9 0.7 2.5 0.5 –3.1 0.6 6.9 2.4 0.9 14.6 24.1 14.6 1.7 4.4 –0.7 3.5 6.7 0.9 2.5 0.4 –3.5 –0.2 7.5 2.4 0.8 0.4 3.8 14.0 –2.5 –5.0 7.8 11.9 1.8 –0.1 2.3 1.0 –1.0 5.0 4.0 2.5 1.5 –2.9 3.8 –1.8 14.8 –7.1 2.9 8.5 6.4 12.3 –0.8 –0.3 3.7 7.6 –2.8 –3.1 –4.1 –7.5 –2.7 –10.5 –3.5 –14.2 –1.2 –3.5 –5.0 –5.4 0.0 2.5 0.9 0.5 1.7 0.3 2.8 5.5 4.5 2.8 3.9 5.4 0.9 3.5 1.7 5.2 2.6 1.9 4.5 1.4 3.0 1.6 3.2 2.7 –0.3 –1.3 –0.3 2.0 –0.5 5.0 2.4 2.6 1.8 2.3 3.1 –0.4 3.0 1.2 2.8 2.2 1.9 1.6 3.0 1.3 4.4 2.6 1.9 3.6 1.7 5.8 4.7 6.5 5.5 4.6 5.7 5.8 4.7 2.7 4.9 3.0 7.1 4.5 3.1 4.9 6.6 3.7 5.3 3.7 5.3 4.8 0.3 1.4 1.5 2.6 3.7 1.1 8.2 5.9 5.2 6.1 5.5 5.0 5.8 3.3 3.9 5.5 3.3 4.9 4.8 4.4 3.9 1. Gross domestic income deflated by the implicit price deflator for gross domestic product. See “Explanatory Note” at the end of the tables. -6- –1.3 –2.5 –1.5 1.8 –3.4 –3.1 6.8 2.4 –10.2 –6.5 –13.1 11.3 –3.4 –1.9 –0.4 –1.4 –2.5 –6.7 5.4 –0.6 0.3 –0.2 –1.0 1.2 0.6 3.5 –6.5 –4.2 8.9 –13.9 –8.4 12.5 –21.6 –11.2 2.8 1.0 –3.6 –0.2 –1.0 –1.3 2.1 5.3 2.6 2.6 4.8 –0.6 3.4 3.1 2.9 5.4 3.0 4.6 2.2 1.1 2.0 –0.6 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.7 2.2 0.9 2.4 –0.6 2.2 –0.5 1.4 4.9 0.3 9.0 5.4 2.6 6.3 3.6 3.1 5.3 0.8 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.2 7.5 5.0 6.9 3.0 3.9 2.1 3.0 1.1 3.2 2.9 4.9 4.6 3.9 3.6 3.0 4.6 1.1 1.6 3.3 1.3 3.0 6.4 1.8 10.7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 –0.4 –1.6 –0.6 –3.1 0.4 0.4 –4.9 –1.5 –12.6 –0.5 –14.0 –3.1 –10.3 1.7 0.5 22 23 24 25 26 0.2 1.4 0.5 2.4 0.6 –7.9 2.1 2.5 2.1 3.2 2.7 4.1 2.5 2.8 3.9 1.8 2.3 1.4 1.8 ........... 4.4 ........... 3.0 0.8 27 28 29 30 31 32 2.8 1.6 2.9 1.7 4.2 2.3 –7.0 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.3 3.8 3.3 4.0 6.2 4.6 4.5 4.3 5.8 3.1 4.2 2.8 3.8 ........... 6.5 ........... 5.0 1.5 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 Table 2. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Line 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 2011 2012 2013 Percent change at annual rate: Gross domestic product ................................... Percentage points at annual rates: Personal consumption expenditures ...................... Goods..................................................................... Durable goods ..................................................... Motor vehicles and parts.................................. Furnishings and durable household equipment Recreational goods and vehicles ..................... Other durable goods ........................................ Nondurable goods ............................................... Food and beverages purchased for offpremises consumption ................................. Clothing and footwear ...................................... Gasoline and other energy goods.................... Other nondurable goods .................................. Services ................................................................. Household consumption expenditures (for services) .......................................................... Housing and utilities......................................... Health care ...................................................... Transportation services.................................... Recreation services ......................................... Food services and accommodations ............... Financial services and insurance..................... Other services ................................................. Final consumption expenditures of nonprofit institutions serving households........................ Gross output of nonprofit institutions ............... Less: Receipts from sales of goods and services by nonprofit institutions .................. Gross private domestic investment ........................ Fixed investment ................................................... Nonresidential...................................................... Structures ........................................................ Equipment........................................................ Information processing equipment............... Computers and peripheral equipment...... Other ........................................................ Industrial equipment..................................... Transportation equipment ............................ Other equipment .......................................... Intellectual property products .......................... Software....................................................... Research and development ......................... Entertainment, literary, and artistic originals Residential........................................................... Change in private inventories .............................. Farm .................................................................... Nonfarm............................................................... Net exports of goods and services ......................... Exports................................................................... Goods .................................................................. Services............................................................... Imports ................................................................... Goods .................................................................. Services............................................................... Government consumption expenditures and gross investment................................................... Federal.................................................................... National defense.................................................. Consumption expenditures .............................. Gross investment ............................................. Nondefense ......................................................... Consumption expenditures .............................. Gross investment ............................................. State and local....................................................... Consumption expenditures.................................. Gross investment................................................. 1.8 2.8 1.74 0.76 0.46 0.11 0.09 0.20 0.06 0.30 1.52 0.77 0.56 0.17 0.10 0.22 0.07 0.22 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.03 –0.06 –0.04 0.19 0.16 0.98 0.74 2010 2011 I II 1.6 3.9 2.8 2.8 1.37 1.42 0.84 0.88 0.52 0.37 0.12 –0.10 0.10 0.17 0.20 0.21 0.09 0.08 0.32 0.51 2.21 1.14 0.84 0.39 0.20 0.25 0.01 0.29 1.87 0.85 0.46 0.17 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.38 2.86 1.66 0.88 0.46 0.13 0.18 0.11 0.78 1.9 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.21 0.53 0.19 –0.15 0.19 0.14 0.01 0.10 0.13 0.21 0.54 1.07 III 0.09 –0.04 0.00 0.21 0.08 –0.08 I –1.3 3.2 2012 III 1.4 IV 4.9 1.42 1.03 1.42 1.65 0.60 0.05 0.29 1.14 0.38 –0.06 0.36 0.93 0.09 –0.43 0.04 0.56 0.04 0.09 0.09 0.17 0.21 0.18 0.20 0.25 0.04 0.09 0.04 –0.04 0.22 0.11 –0.08 0.21 1.27 0.84 0.28 0.06 0.43 0.24 0.04 0.02 0.08 –0.06 0.14 0.21 0.20 0.22 0.10 0.14 0.07 –0.11 –0.07 –0.03 0.32 0.18 0.17 –0.06 0.25 2.86 1.77 1.21 0.27 1.02 0.06 –0.03 0.09 0.22 0.55 0.19 –0.08 –0.14 –0.03 0.09 0.56 1.09 –0.09 1.18 –1.77 1.10 0.93 0.17 –2.87 –2.77 –0.10 II 2013 I II III IV 3.7 1.2 2.8 0.1 1.98 1.28 1.04 0.50 0.69 0.21 0.26 –0.11 0.13 0.02 0.22 0.19 0.09 0.12 0.35 0.28 1.15 0.84 0.59 0.19 0.09 0.22 0.08 0.25 1.13 0.85 0.74 0.33 0.07 0.21 0.13 0.10 0.29 1.86 –0.04 0.90 –0.15 0.83 0.13 –0.09 0.22 0.04 0.54 0.12 0.22 0.06 0.11 0.05 –0.94 1.90 –0.11 2.01 –0.88 1.27 0.70 0.57 –2.15 –1.79 –0.36 0.94 0.84 0.66 0.87 0.52 0.25 0.17 0.32 –0.13 –0.12 0.55 0.16 0.30 –0.09 0.55 0.54 0.03 0.26 0.09 0.06 0.02 –0.01 0.04 0.02 0.15 0.07 0.02 0.05 0.01 0.03 0.20 0.14 0.18 0.18 0.10 0.05 0.02 0.31 –0.10 –0.05 –0.17 –0.35 0.00 0.03 0.12 0.28 –0.04 0.09 0.04 0.11 0.30 –0.15 0.00 0.26 0.06 0.39 0.26 0.09 0.06 0.31 –0.16 –0.23 0.68 0.53 0.18 0.29 –0.20 –0.10 –0.10 0.12 0.29 0.08 0.07 0.11 –0.03 0.00 0.15 –0.91 –0.14 –0.76 0.10 0.51 0.48 0.03 –0.41 –0.35 –0.06 0.25 0.99 0.39 0.04 0.15 –0.22 –0.08 –0.19 0.11 0.00 –0.25 0.10 0.11 0.06 0.04 0.00 0.35 0.60 –0.32 0.91 –0.03 0.05 0.16 –0.10 –0.08 –0.05 –0.03 Line I II 1.1 2.5 4.1 3.2 1 1.54 1.24 0.85 0.71 0.43 0.46 0.13 –0.02 0.07 0.15 0.16 0.23 0.07 0.10 0.43 0.26 1.36 1.03 0.58 0.12 0.21 0.24 0.00 0.46 2.26 1.12 0.44 0.02 0.10 0.16 0.15 0.68 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0.11 –0.06 0.14 0.04 0.13 –0.09 0.11 –0.02 0.08 0.17 0.21 0.33 0.69 0.53 0.32 0.19 0.18 0.04 0.28 1.14 10 11 12 13 14 0.13 1.04 0.60 0.24 –0.35 0.58 0.01 –0.31 0.26 0.14 0.40 0.31 –0.01 0.06 0.00 –0.04 –0.04 0.06 –0.02 0.10 0.27 0.11 0.03 0.02 –0.01 0.27 0.20 0.09 0.01 –0.17 –0.02 0.06 1.10 0.14 0.18 0.02 0.01 0.43 0.24 0.08 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 0.08 0.15 0.05 0.16 23 24 0.09 0.31 0.07 0.08 –0.05 –0.02 0.15 0.12 0.09 0.05 0.02 0.27 0.05 0.10 –0.15 0.09 0.10 –0.09 0.11 –0.04 0.05 –0.04 –0.08 –0.25 –0.01 –0.02 –0.12 0.18 –0.08 –0.14 0.23 0.25 0.19 0.18 0.14 0.15 0.22 0.07 0.14 0.23 1.02 1.20 0.81 0.98 1.14 0.51 0.94 0.78 0.31 0.29 0.97 0.65 0.56 0.53 1.00 1.14 0.16 0.10 0.10 0.18 –0.02 0.27 0.30 0.30 0.24 –0.11 0.41 0.44 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.02 0.08 –0.06 0.15 0.17 0.15 0.13 0.15 0.13 0.10 0.15 –0.07 0.08 0.21 0.41 –0.02 0.09 0.10 –0.02 0.01 0.08 0.15 0.00 0.09 IV 0.16 –0.35 –0.07 0.09 –0.22 0.25 IV 0.09 0.69 0.85 0.84 0.05 0.62 0.04 –0.01 0.05 0.16 0.27 0.14 0.17 0.10 0.05 0.01 0.01 –0.16 0.02 –0.18 0.10 0.89 0.63 0.27 –0.79 –0.70 –0.09 0.12 1.36 1.17 0.85 0.31 0.41 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.06 0.25 0.05 0.13 0.10 0.03 0.00 0.32 0.20 –0.03 0.22 0.10 0.48 0.36 0.12 –0.38 –0.30 –0.07 0.12 0.83 0.64 0.32 0.04 0.16 0.05 –0.01 0.06 0.04 0.00 0.07 0.12 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.33 0.19 0.23 –0.04 0.14 0.38 0.24 0.14 –0.23 –0.16 –0.07 –0.08 1.77 0.11 0.46 –0.73 1.25 0.14 0.03 0.12 –0.09 0.87 0.34 –0.07 –0.15 0.01 0.08 –0.35 1.66 –0.06 1.72 –0.96 0.73 0.85 –0.12 –1.70 –1.68 –0.02 0.24 –0.51 1.13 0.94 0.18 0.57 0.19 –0.03 0.22 0.14 0.08 0.16 0.19 0.09 0.06 0.04 0.19 –1.64 0.02 –1.66 1.32 1.47 1.07 0.40 –0.15 –0.22 0.07 –0.02 –1.11 –0.05 –0.09 –0.82 0.59 –0.15 –0.09 –0.06 0.22 0.26 0.25 0.14 0.13 0.04 –0.03 0.04 –1.06 0.11 –1.17 0.01 0.48 0.38 0.09 –0.46 –0.61 0.14 0.06 1.88 1.16 1.09 0.68 0.23 0.14 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.05 0.18 0.13 0.06 –0.01 0.07 0.72 –0.02 0.74 0.53 0.64 0.34 0.30 –0.11 0.10 –0.21 –0.30 0.36 1.96 1.81 0.62 0.99 –0.01 0.03 –0.03 0.33 0.43 0.24 0.20 0.14 0.05 0.01 0.15 –1.60 0.08 –1.68 0.10 0.92 0.53 0.39 –0.82 –0.50 –0.32 0.41 4.13 1.39 1.10 0.35 0.54 0.05 0.06 –0.01 0.23 0.47 –0.20 0.21 0.16 0.03 0.02 0.29 2.73 0.05 2.68 –0.60 0.38 0.72 –0.35 –0.98 –0.93 –0.05 0.33 1.57 1.21 0.68 0.18 0.45 0.23 0.11 0.12 –0.19 0.30 0.11 0.05 0.03 0.03 –0.01 0.53 0.36 0.08 0.27 0.44 0.56 0.17 0.39 –0.12 –0.12 0.00 0.13 0.71 –0.23 –0.57 –0.80 0.09 –0.05 –0.08 0.04 0.00 –0.10 0.24 0.14 0.13 –0.01 0.02 0.34 0.93 0.88 0.06 –0.28 –0.18 –0.27 0.09 –0.10 0.03 –0.13 0.31 1.38 0.96 0.56 0.43 0.18 0.16 –0.08 0.23 –0.01 0.08 –0.04 –0.06 –0.11 0.04 0.01 0.40 0.41 0.12 0.30 –0.07 1.04 0.84 0.20 –1.10 –1.00 –0.11 0.07 2.56 0.89 0.58 0.35 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.03 0.18 0.04 –0.23 0.22 0.14 0.08 –0.01 0.31 1.67 0.12 1.55 0.14 0.52 0.52 0.01 –0.39 –0.32 –0.07 0.11 0.56 0.14 0.46 –0.03 0.38 –0.11 0.09 –0.20 –0.05 0.24 0.29 0.12 0.06 0.06 0.00 –0.32 0.42 –0.02 0.44 1.33 1.48 1.34 0.14 –0.15 –0.11 –0.04 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 –0.68 –0.23 –0.13 –0.06 –0.07 –0.10 –0.09 0.00 –0.46 –0.30 –0.16 –0.20 –0.12 –0.17 –0.11 –0.06 0.05 0.08 –0.02 –0.08 0.00 –0.08 –0.43 –0.41 –0.35 –0.31 –0.05 –0.06 –0.04 –0.02 –0.02 0.03 –0.05 –0.63 0.61 –0.07 –0.87 0.32 0.71 0.32 –0.23 –0.11 0.34 0.41 –0.19 –0.05 0.23 0.37 –0.25 –0.06 0.11 0.04 0.06 0.43 0.37 –0.09 –0.04 0.34 0.28 –0.11 –0.05 0.09 0.09 0.02 0.01 –0.95 –0.10 –0.39 –0.63 –0.68 –0.35 –0.41 –0.35 –0.28 0.24 0.02 –0.28 –1.61 –0.94 –0.83 –0.47 –0.36 –0.11 –0.13 0.02 –0.67 –0.33 –0.34 –0.25 0.16 0.36 0.31 0.06 –0.21 –0.17 –0.04 –0.41 –0.26 –0.15 –0.52 –0.29 0.13 0.19 –0.06 –0.42 –0.39 –0.03 –0.23 –0.17 –0.06 –0.31 –0.25 –0.57 –0.58 0.00 0.32 0.38 –0.06 –0.05 –0.04 –0.01 –0.28 0.05 0.67 –1.31 –0.82 –0.20 –0.02 0.69 –1.19 –0.68 –0.36 –0.05 0.60 –1.22 –0.57 –0.11 –0.13 0.61 –1.14 –0.38 –0.25 0.08 –0.01 –0.08 –0.18 0.16 0.04 0.08 0.03 –0.11 0.18 0.03 0.08 0.05 –0.05 –0.02 0.00 0.00 –0.02 –0.05 –0.08 0.07 –0.02 –0.12 –0.14 0.10 0.03 0.12 –0.01 0.01 –0.18 0.04 –0.14 –0.11 –0.16 –0.07 –0.12 –0.03 –0.12 0.09 –0.09 –0.08 –0.02 0.05 0.04 0.01 0.08 –0.11 –0.02 –0.06 0.04 –0.09 –0.09 0.00 0.19 0.04 0.15 –0.93 –0.98 –0.68 –0.51 –0.17 –0.30 –0.27 –0.04 0.06 0.03 0.03 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 See “Explanatory Note” at the end of the tables. -7- –0.07 –0.36 1.63 1.13 0.44 0.47 0.31 0.28 0.04 0.07 0.01 0.07 0.21 0.16 0.05 0.01 0.50 –2.00 0.10 –2.09 0.68 0.15 –0.28 0.43 0.53 0.50 0.03 III Table 3. Gross Domestic Product: Level and Change From Preceding Period—Continues Billions of dollars Billions of chained (2009) dollars Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Change from preceding period Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Line 2013 2012 2013 2013 2012 2013 Line 2013 2013 1 Gross domestic product ................................... 2 Personal consumption expenditures ...................... 3 Goods..................................................................... 4 Durable goods ..................................................... 5 Motor vehicles and parts ................................. 6 Furnishings and durable household equipment .................................................... 7 Recreational goods and vehicles..................... 8 Other durable goods ........................................ 9 Nondurable goods ............................................... 10 Food and beverages purchased for offpremises consumption ................................. 11 Clothing and footwear...................................... 12 Gasoline and other energy goods.................... 13 Other nondurable goods .................................. 14 Services ................................................................. 15 Household consumption expenditures (for services) .......................................................... 16 Housing and utilities......................................... 17 Health care ...................................................... 18 Transportation services.................................... 19 Recreation services ......................................... 20 Food services and accommodations ............... 21 Financial services and insurance .................... 22 Other services ................................................. 23 Final consumption expenditures of nonprofit institutions serving households........................ 24 Gross output of nonprofit institutions ............... 25 Less: Receipts from sales of goods and services by nonprofit institutions.................. 26 Gross private domestic investment ........................ 27 Fixed investment ................................................... 28 Nonresidential ..................................................... 29 Structures ........................................................ 30 Equipment ....................................................... 31 Information processing equipment............... 32 Computers and peripheral equipment...... 33 Other ........................................................ 34 Industrial equipment .................................... 35 Transportation equipment ............................ 36 Other equipment .......................................... 37 Intellectual property products .......................... 38 Software....................................................... 39 Research and development ......................... 40 Entertainment, literary, and artistic originals 41 Residential........................................................... 42 Change in private inventories .............................. 43 Farm .................................................................... 44 Nonfarm............................................................... 45 Net exports of goods and services ......................... 46 Exports................................................................... 47 Goods.................................................................. 48 Services............................................................... 49 Imports................................................................... 50 Goods.................................................................. 51 Services............................................................... IV I II III IV 15,539.6 10,584.8 3,579.2 1,285.2 375.8 15,583.9 10,644.0 3,611.9 1,303.5 380.6 15,679.7 10,691.9 3,639.6 1,323.2 379.7 15,839.3 10,744.2 3,680.0 1,348.6 384.3 15,965.6 10,832.8 3,724.5 1,368.1 385.1 296.4 210.6 129.9 89.1 18.4 159.6 52.3 40.4 25.4 4.6 126.3 88.6 44.5 19.5 0.8 1 2 3 4 5 286.5 277.9 280.7 284.7 289.4 291.2 311.3 297.3 300.3 306.9 316.6 321.2 348.8 339.9 342.3 346.3 351.7 354.9 452.9 426.8 435.2 447.3 460.1 469.2 205.3 197.8 200.6 204.7 205.8 210.1 197.4 190.1 192.8 196.8 196.9 203.1 2,623.7 2,595.4 2,607.0 2,591.0 2,638.8 2,658.0 2,344.2 2,306.7 2,322.2 2,331.7 2,348.6 2,374.2 18.5 42.0 13.8 47.4 9.7 12.8 0.1 16.9 4.6 9.1 6.2 25.6 6 7 8 9 884.3 871.8 878.9 877.6 886.2 894.3 820.5 813.5 817.6 815.3 820.8 828.1 363.5 357.4 360.0 362.8 363.1 368.2 344.1 339.0 340.5 345.5 341.7 348.9 407.8 421.6 418.3 391.7 414.0 407.2 272.6 268.8 271.7 271.1 273.2 274.3 968.1 944.7 949.7 958.9 975.6 988.3 917.3 895.2 901.8 910.0 923.0 934.2 7,610.4 7,459.4 7,527.4 7,578.6 7,624.8 7,710.6 7,063.6 7,004.7 7,031.1 7,051.5 7,063.6 7,108.2 11.1 5.2 1.1 32.2 80.9 5.5 –3.8 2.1 13.0 12.1 7.3 7.2 1.1 11.2 44.6 10 11 12 13 14 7,319.9 7,159.6 7,243.6 7,290.2 7,331.7 7,413.8 6,775.6 6,703.2 6,743.2 6,766.1 6,775.2 6,817.8 2,081.6 2,029.4 2,065.8 2,082.6 2,079.5 2,098.7 1,960.0 1,941.9 1,964.5 1,964.8 1,952.6 1,958.0 1,914.0 1,872.5 1,889.2 1,902.9 1,923.3 1,940.5 1,775.8 1,750.9 1,756.5 1,771.9 1,783.9 1,790.8 324.2 319.8 324.2 322.8 323.8 326.2 300.2 298.6 300.8 300.8 299.3 299.9 427.1 419.0 423.4 422.8 429.7 432.6 397.5 393.7 396.1 395.1 399.2 399.6 737.5 717.2 725.6 732.9 736.3 755.3 676.2 666.6 670.7 671.9 672.8 689.4 847.6 824.2 835.1 842.0 851.1 862.2 757.1 737.7 747.6 754.9 758.3 767.4 987.8 977.5 980.4 984.4 988.0 998.4 908.3 913.6 907.1 906.2 908.5 911.7 86.2 16.4 37.4 2.2 3.1 19.4 11.1 –3.6 9.1 –12.2 12.0 –1.5 4.1 0.9 3.4 2.3 42.6 5.4 6.9 0.6 0.4 16.6 9.1 3.2 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 290.5 299.8 283.8 288.4 293.2 296.8 287.6 302.3 287.6 284.8 288.0 289.9 1,232.6 1,212.5 1,209.9 1,227.2 1,239.5 1,253.8 1,144.3 1,141.4 1,132.7 1,142.2 1,148.1 1,154.2 –6.0 12.2 3.2 5.9 1.9 6.1 23 24 863.6 17.3 2.7 4.3 2,649.4 131.9 102.3 22.2 2,499.6 102.7 35.6 5.6 2,013.5 50.3 23.4 18.8 437.0 5.4 13.6 –1.4 946.1 26.3 0.5 15.7 303.4 8.9 1.5 –4.9 ............. ............ ............ ............ 213.9 9.7 1.1 –8.8 192.5 6.0 6.9 –1.9 230.2 0.0 1.6 10.1 224.7 11.2 –9.5 12.0 632.0 18.7 8.7 5.0 302.9 13.1 6.1 2.7 254.0 4.8 3.1 2.1 75.9 1.1 –0.4 0.1 486.5 52.3 12.1 –12.7 127.2 27.8 59.1 11.5 20.9 27.0 3.3 –1.9 103.8 –6.7 56.5 14.6 –370.1 21.7 4.6 49.7 2,073.0 55.0 19.2 55.4 1,442.2 34.5 18.8 50.0 630.3 20.8 0.2 5.2 2,443.1 33.3 14.4 5.8 2,005.6 23.3 11.8 4.2 436.8 10.5 2.6 1.6 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 16,803.0 11,499.3 3,888.9 1,265.2 424.6 942.1 2,672.0 2,561.4 2,045.0 456.6 937.3 289.0 77.5 211.5 202.7 217.9 227.8 651.0 294.6 280.8 75.7 516.4 110.5 40.7 69.9 –493.8 2,262.2 1,570.0 692.2 2,755.9 2,295.0 460.9 IV I II III IV 16,420.3 11,285.5 3,826.1 1,230.7 415.1 16,535.3 11,379.2 3,851.8 1,244.8 421.3 16,661.0 11,427.1 3,848.5 1,257.5 421.7 16,912.9 11,537.7 3,912.8 1,274.0 427.1 17,102.5 11,653.1 3,942.4 1,284.4 428.3 912.7 2,499.9 2,486.9 2,018.2 457.8 925.0 289.4 82.5 206.9 199.6 215.7 220.3 635.4 287.3 273.4 74.7 468.8 13.0 –15.6 28.6 –515.8 2,213.7 1,538.3 675.5 2,729.5 2,279.6 449.9 926.1 2,555.1 2,491.7 2,001.4 429.1 928.0 286.2 78.8 207.5 200.1 211.5 230.2 644.3 293.7 275.2 75.3 490.3 63.4 38.9 24.5 –523.1 2,214.2 1,531.6 682.6 2,737.3 2,281.9 455.3 938.8 2,621.0 2,543.8 2,030.6 452.6 934.6 291.4 75.7 215.7 199.3 214.7 229.2 643.5 290.4 277.4 75.6 513.2 77.2 40.4 36.9 –509.0 2,238.9 1,548.8 690.2 2,747.9 2,288.7 459.3 946.3 2,738.0 2,593.2 2,060.5 470.7 935.8 291.6 76.0 215.6 206.6 217.8 219.7 654.1 296.0 282.3 75.8 532.6 144.8 44.5 100.3 –500.2 2,265.8 1,572.1 693.7 2,766.0 2,304.5 461.5 957.0 2,773.7 2,616.9 2,087.4 474.2 951.0 286.6 79.6 207.0 204.7 227.8 231.9 662.2 298.1 288.1 76.0 529.6 156.7 38.9 117.8 –442.8 2,329.7 1,627.4 702.2 2,772.5 2,305.0 467.5 15,767.1 10,728.2 3,664.0 1,335.8 382.4 856.1 2,567.9 2,468.0 1,982.1 427.0 932.2 304.6 ............. 217.5 190.6 221.0 220.9 624.5 299.0 250.5 75.9 486.0 85.4 19.8 62.0 –409.1 2,012.4 1,387.7 624.5 2,421.5 1,987.6 433.3 839.9 2,441.8 2,429.1 1,971.9 439.4 918.8 302.1 ............. 210.3 187.8 219.4 214.5 614.9 293.1 247.6 74.9 457.5 7.3 –9.6 20.3 –412.1 1,967.0 1,352.6 614.2 2,379.1 1,955.1 423.1 844.8 2,470.1 2,420.0 1,949.0 407.9 922.5 300.0 .............. 211.8 188.0 215.1 224.0 620.6 298.6 247.4 75.7 471.2 42.2 16.0 22.2 –422.3 1,960.5 1,342.8 617.5 2,382.7 1,954.0 428.3 856.6 2,524.9 2,458.4 1,971.3 424.8 929.9 306.8 .............. 221.6 187.5 218.5 222.2 618.3 294.1 248.8 76.2 487.1 56.6 19.5 32.7 –424.4 1,998.4 1,373.4 624.9 2,422.9 1,989.6 432.6 859.3 2,627.2 2,494.0 1,994.7 438.4 930.4 308.3 .............. 222.7 194.4 220.1 212.7 627.0 300.2 251.9 75.8 499.2 115.7 22.8 89.2 –419.8 2,017.6 1,392.2 625.1 2,437.3 2,001.4 435.2 III IV NOTE. Users are cautioned that particularly for components that exhibit rapid change in prices relative to other prices in the economy, the chained-dollar estimates should not be used to measure the component’s relative importance or its contribution to the growth rate of more aggregate series. For accurate estimates of the contributions to percent changes in real gross domestic product, use table 2. See “Explanatory Note” at the end of the tables. -8- Table 3. Gross Domestic Product: Level and Change From Preceding Period—Table Ends Billions of dollars Billions of chained (2009) dollars Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Change from preceding period Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Line 2013 2012 2013 2013 2012 2013 Line 2013 2013 52 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment .................................................. 53 Federal ................................................................... 54 National defense ................................................. 55 Consumption expenditures.............................. 56 Gross investment ............................................ 57 Nondefense......................................................... 58 Consumption expenditures.............................. 59 Gross investment ............................................ 60 State and local ...................................................... 61 Consumption expenditures ................................. 62 Gross investment ................................................ 63 Residual...................................................................... Addenda: 64 Final sales of domestic product .............................. 65 Gross domestic purchases ..................................... 66 Final sales to domestic purchasers ........................ 67 Gross domestic product ...................................... 68 Plus: Income receipts from the rest of the world..... 69 Less: Income payments to the rest of the world ..... 70 Equals: Gross national product .......................... 71 Net domestic product.............................................. 72 Gross domestic income 1........................................ IV I II III IV 3,125.5 1,246.2 771.0 612.3 158.7 475.1 359.1 116.1 1,879.4 1,547.2 332.2 ............. 3,150.7 1,275.2 793.7 630.6 163.1 481.5 363.3 118.2 1,875.4 1,544.3 331.2 ............. 3,124.1 1,255.0 775.8 619.7 156.1 479.2 362.6 116.6 1,869.1 1,543.0 326.1 ............. 3,121.9 1,252.6 776.3 615.7 160.5 476.3 360.3 116.1 1,869.3 1,541.4 327.8 ............. 3,137.5 1,251.2 777.3 614.9 162.5 473.9 357.5 116.3 1,886.3 1,550.8 335.6 ............. 3,118.6 1,225.8 754.7 598.8 155.8 471.1 355.8 115.3 1,892.7 1,553.5 339.2 ............. 16,692.4 17,296.7 17,186.2 16,803.0 .............. .............. .............. 14,156.3 .............. 16,407.3 16,936.1 16,923.1 16,420.3 829.8 572.8 16,677.3 13,845.3 16,522.0 16,471.9 17,058.4 16,995.0 16,535.3 813.3 575.9 16,772.7 13,931.5 16,690.9 16,583.8 17,170.0 17,092.8 16,661.0 817.0 570.1 16,907.9 14,029.1 16,847.8 16,768.1 17,413.2 17,268.4 16,912.9 822.0 559.1 17,175.9 14,253.3 17,005.6 16,945.7 17,545.3 17,388.5 17,102.5 ............. ............. ............. 14,411.3 ............. IV I II III 2,897.6 1,157.5 715.2 563.8 151.3 442.4 331.5 110.8 1,739.7 1,432.0 307.1 –39.5 2,938.8 1,198.9 745.0 588.1 156.8 453.9 340.2 113.7 1,739.8 1,429.5 309.6 –45.1 2,907.4 1,172.8 723.1 573.4 149.5 449.8 338.1 111.6 1,734.3 1,429.9 303.7 –38.0 2,904.5 1,168.2 722.0 568.8 153.1 446.2 335.1 111.0 1,736.0 1,431.3 304.0 –41.2 2,907.4 1,163.9 721.2 566.3 154.9 442.7 331.5 111.1 1,743.2 1,432.8 309.7 –40.2 15,671.2 16,175.2 16,079.7 15,767.1 .............. .............. .............. 13,264.1 .............. 15,528.3 15,950.8 15,939.7 15,539.6 711.5 490.7 15,764.8 13,067.9 15,636.0 15,536.4 16,005.8 15,958.6 15,583.9 695.2 491.9 15,789.7 13,099.9 15,730.6 15,616.2 16,104.1 16,041.0 15,679.7 697.9 486.9 15,893.9 13,183.0 15,855.4 15,711.1 16,258.5 16,130.9 15,839.3 698.9 475.2 16,067.4 13,330.0 15,926.1 IV III IV 2,871.0 –65.5 2.9 –36.4 1,125.2 –62.8 –4.3 –38.7 694.5 –53.9 –0.8 –26.7 546.6 –46.6 –2.5 –19.7 147.8 –7.2 1.8 –7.1 430.8 –8.8 –3.5 –11.9 321.2 –5.4 –3.6 –10.3 109.6 –3.4 0.1 –1.5 1,745.4 –3.1 7.2 2.2 1,433.9 4.9 1.5 1.1 310.8 –8.0 5.7 1.1 –37.7 ............. ............ ............. 15,821.1 16,332.3 16,188.5 15,965.6 ............. ............. ............. 13,443.4 ............. 268.0 272.9 244.5 296.4 ............. ............. ............. 248.3 ............. 94.9 154.4 89.9 159.6 1.0 –11.7 173.5 147.0 70.7 110.0 73.8 57.6 126.3 ............. ............. ............. 113.4 ............. 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 1. Real gross domestic income is gross domestic income deflated by the implicit price deflator for gross domestic product. NOTE. Users are cautioned that particularly for components that exhibit rapid change in prices relative to other prices in the economy, the chained-dollar estimates should not be used to measure the component’s relative importance or its contribution to the growth rate of more aggregate series. For accurate estimates of the contributions to percent changes in real gross domestic product, use table 2. See “Explanatory Note” at the end of the tables. -9- Table 4. Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Percent Change From Preceding Period Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Line 2011 2012 2013 2010 I 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 II 2011 III IV I II 2012 III IV I II 2013 III IV I II Line III IV Gross domestic product (GDP) 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.9 1.8 2.1 1.6 2.6 2.5 0.5 2.0 1.8 2.3 1.1 1.3 0.6 2.0 1.3 Personal consumption expenditures ... 2.4 1.8 1.1 1.4 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.0 3.7 2.3 1.3 2.3 1.1 1.7 1.6 1.1 –0.1 1.9 0.7 Goods................................................... 3.6 1.3 –0.5 1.1 –2.5 0.6 4.0 6.0 6.3 2.6 0.2 2.2 –1.2 1.3 0.7 –1.0 –3.3 2.2 –1.8 Durable goods .................................. –1.0 –1.2 –1.8 –1.6 –2.4 –2.5 –1.9 –0.8 1.4 –0.6 –2.2 –0.7 –1.2 –2.2 –2.1 –1.1 –2.0 –2.3 –2.5 Nondurable goods ............................ 5.9 2.4 0.1 2.4 –2.5 2.2 6.9 9.3 8.6 4.1 1.3 3.5 –1.1 3.0 2.0 –0.9 –4.0 4.5 –1.4 Services ............................................... 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.5 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.2 1.9 2.1 2.1 1.6 1.8 2.0 Gross private domestic investment ..... 1.3 1.3 1.7 –0.8 0.5 0.7 2.1 1.1 1.7 1.0 0.7 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.7 Fixed investment .................................. 1.3 1.3 1.9 –1.1 0.1 0.5 1.8 1.4 2.2 1.1 0.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.8 Nonresidential................................... 1.5 1.4 1.2 –1.5 0.9 0.6 1.6 1.5 2.3 1.3 0.9 2.1 1.5 1.0 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.4 Structures ..................................... 2.9 1.9 3.0 1.5 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.7 4.2 3.7 2.7 0.9 1.9 0.6 1.2 4.0 5.2 3.1 4.3 Equipment..................................... 0.9 1.3 0.4 –4.2 –0.2 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.7 0.7 1.0 2.1 0.4 1.4 1.5 –0.3 –0.4 0.3 –0.2 Intellectual property products ....... 1.2 1.4 1.0 –0.3 1.4 –1.0 1.9 2.0 2.2 0.5 –0.6 2.7 2.9 0.7 –0.6 1.9 1.0 1.0 1.8 Residential........................................ 0.7 0.9 5.0 0.6 –2.8 0.0 2.3 0.8 1.4 0.1 0.1 –0.8 1.4 3.4 4.0 6.3 5.1 5.2 8.3 Change in private inventories ............... ........... .......... .......... ........... ........... .......... .......... ........... ........... .......... .......... ........... ........... .......... .......... ........... .......... .......... .......... Net exports of goods and services ...... ........... .......... .......... ........... ........... .......... .......... ........... ........... .......... .......... ........... ........... .......... .......... ........... .......... .......... .......... Exports ................................................. 6.4 0.9 0.2 3.9 4.7 1.2 9.7 10.6 8.3 2.3 –4.0 2.9 0.6 0.0 1.5 1.4 –3.2 1.0 0.3 Goods ............................................... 7.6 0.4 –0.3 4.2 5.4 1.4 12.7 12.7 9.5 1.9 –5.2 2.4 –0.1 0.0 1.1 1.2 –4.4 0.5 –0.3 Services............................................ 3.8 2.1 1.4 3.3 3.2 0.9 3.4 6.0 5.7 3.2 –1.0 4.0 2.4 –0.1 2.5 2.0 –0.3 1.9 1.5 Imports ................................................. 7.8 0.5 –0.9 6.4 –1.8 –2.2 9.6 17.4 12.8 –0.4 –0.8 4.3 –3.7 –5.0 4.1 0.5 –5.0 0.2 0.0 Goods ............................................... 8.8 0.6 –1.2 7.5 –2.4 –2.9 10.4 20.4 14.6 –0.3 –0.3 4.8 –4.5 –5.9 4.5 0.6 –5.9 0.4 –0.7 Services............................................ 2.8 0.2 0.5 1.2 0.7 1.5 5.9 3.7 4.5 –0.7 –3.2 1.6 0.5 –0.3 2.3 –0.1 –0.5 –0.5 3.7 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment 2.8 1.3 0.9 4.8 3.0 2.0 2.9 3.6 4.1 1.7 –0.5 2.9 0.3 0.3 1.4 0.9 0.1 1.6 2.6 Federal ................................................. 2.7 0.8 1.4 5.5 2.9 1.6 2.3 4.2 3.8 1.3 –1.0 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.6 2.4 0.8 1.0 5.4 National defense............................... 2.8 1.0 1.5 5.6 2.4 0.8 2.2 5.2 4.2 1.2 –1.6 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.8 2.8 0.9 1.0 3.3 Nondefense ...................................... 2.5 0.4 1.3 5.4 3.9 2.9 2.3 2.5 3.2 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 –0.2 0.1 1.8 0.8 1.1 9.0 State and local...................................... 2.9 1.6 0.6 4.3 3.1 2.3 3.3 3.1 4.3 1.9 –0.1 3.8 –0.1 0.4 1.9 –0.1 –0.4 2.0 0.8 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product............ 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.7 2.7 2.5 0.5 2.0 1.7 2.3 1.1 1.4 0.7 2.0 1.4 Gross domestic purchases................... 2.3 1.7 1.2 1.8 1.0 1.3 2.3 2.8 3.5 2.0 0.9 2.3 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.2 1.8 1.2 Final sales to domestic purchasers ...... 2.3 1.7 1.2 1.7 0.9 1.3 2.2 2.9 3.6 2.0 0.9 2.3 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.2 1.9 1.4 Gross national product (GNP) .............. 2.0 1.7 ........... 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.1 1.6 2.7 2.4 0.5 2.0 1.7 2.3 1.1 1.3 0.6 2.0 .......... Implicit price deflators: GDP.................................................. 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.8 2.1 1.6 2.6 2.5 0.5 2.0 1.8 2.1 1.4 1.7 0.6 2.0 1.3 Gross domestic purchases ............... 2.3 1.6 1.3 1.9 0.9 1.3 2.3 2.8 3.5 2.1 0.9 2.2 1.0 1.2 1.9 1.5 0.2 1.8 1.2 GNP.................................................. 2.0 1.7 ........... 1.9 1.7 1.8 2.1 1.6 2.6 2.5 0.5 2.0 1.8 2.1 1.4 1.7 0.6 2.0 .......... See “Explanatory Note” at the end of the tables. - 10 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 Table 5. Real Gross Domestic Product, Quantity Indexes [Index numbers, 2009=100] Seasonally adjusted Line 2011 2012 2013 2012 IV 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2013 I II Line III IV Gross domestic product ..................................................... 104.400 107.302 109.358 107.780 108.087 108.751 109.859 110.734 Personal consumption expenditures................................................ 104.555 106.854 108.994 107.537 108.138 108.625 109.156 110.057 Goods ............................................................................................... 106.925 110.495 114.556 111.904 112.928 113.793 115.057 116.446 Durable goods............................................................................... 113.074 121.833 130.541 125.591 127.379 129.309 131.785 133.690 Nondurable goods......................................................................... 104.177 105.594 107.771 106.047 106.762 107.197 107.973 109.152 Services............................................................................................ 103.411 105.090 106.307 105.421 105.818 106.125 106.308 106.978 Gross private domestic investment .................................................. 118.449 129.705 136.728 130.012 131.521 134.440 139.883 141.070 Fixed investment ............................................................................... 107.844 116.766 121.836 119.914 119.467 121.362 123.119 123.395 Nonresidential ............................................................................... 110.225 118.263 121.346 120.717 119.318 120.685 122.114 123.267 Structures.................................................................................. 85.360 96.212 97.451 100.282 93.090 96.943 100.042 99.730 Equipment ................................................................................. 130.639 140.604 144.685 142.609 143.175 144.326 144.401 146.837 Intellectual property products.................................................... 106.388 109.962 113.353 111.617 112.648 112.235 113.815 114.715 Residential .................................................................................... 97.964 110.581 123.902 116.635 120.123 124.180 127.267 124.037 Change in private inventories ........................................................... .................... ................... ................... ................... .................... ................... ................... ................... Exports of goods and services ......................................................... 119.367 123.590 127.060 124.196 123.781 126.181 127.389 130.888 Imports of goods and services ......................................................... 118.239 120.860 122.546 120.398 120.584 122.615 123.347 123.638 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.... 96.868 95.921 93.800 95.135 94.117 94.024 94.117 92.941 Federal.............................................................................................. 101.660 100.212 95.059 98.455 96.315 95.933 95.581 92.409 State and local .................................................................................. 93.751 93.128 92.963 92.966 92.672 92.765 93.147 93.268 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product ........................................................ 103.082 105.751 107.591 106.610 106.666 107.214 107.865 108.620 Gross domestic purchases ............................................................... 104.666 107.374 109.217 107.702 108.073 108.737 109.779 110.278 Final sales to domestic purchasers .................................................. 103.381 105.866 107.501 106.565 106.691 107.242 107.843 108.228 Gross national product...................................................................... 104.954 107.744 .................... 108.237 108.408 109.123 110.314 ................... See “Explanatory Note” at the end of the tables. - 11 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Table 6. Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product [Index numbers, 2009=100] Seasonally adjusted Line 2011 2012 2013 2012 IV 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 2013 I II Line III IV Gross domestic product ..................................................... 103.203 105.008 106.467 105.640 105.994 106.165 106.685 107.024 Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) ..................................... 104.086 106.009 107.187 106.622 106.909 106.878 107.387 107.573 Goods ............................................................................................... 105.345 106.666 106.140 106.900 106.641 105.740 106.326 105.853 Durable goods............................................................................... 97.649 96.467 94.708 95.746 95.487 95.016 94.456 93.871 Nondurable goods......................................................................... 109.128 111.765 111.927 112.522 112.264 111.126 112.362 111.958 Services............................................................................................ 103.463 105.689 107.740 106.493 107.060 107.477 107.946 108.477 Gross private domestic investment .................................................. 100.364 101.646 103.415 102.196 102.726 103.206 103.641 104.086 Fixed investment ............................................................................... 100.506 101.852 103.781 102.386 102.967 103.478 103.982 104.699 Nonresidential ............................................................................... 100.524 101.977 103.168 102.350 102.692 103.008 103.303 103.669 Structures.................................................................................. 101.748 103.732 106.887 104.164 105.189 106.521 107.347 108.491 Equipment ................................................................................. 98.928 100.187 100.549 100.673 100.601 100.500 100.578 100.520 Intellectual property products.................................................... 101.789 103.169 104.247 103.325 103.816 104.071 104.322 104.777 Residential .................................................................................... 100.392 101.246 106.277 102.500 104.088 105.396 106.739 108.886 Change in private inventories ........................................................... .................... ................... ................... ................... .................... ................... ................... ................... Exports of goods and services ......................................................... 111.140 112.185 112.415 112.543 112.944 112.034 112.303 112.381 Imports of goods and services ......................................................... 114.273 114.862 113.810 114.725 114.873 113.411 113.480 113.476 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.... 105.560 106.882 107.869 107.209 107.454 107.485 107.916 108.622 Federal.............................................................................................. 105.344 106.184 107.669 106.370 107.007 107.229 107.504 108.938 State and local .................................................................................. 105.710 107.371 108.026 107.798 107.775 107.676 108.213 108.441 Addenda: PCE excluding food and energy 1 ..................................................... 102.743 104.632 105.926 105.187 105.542 105.711 106.077 106.372 Market-based PCE 2 ......................................................................... 104.034 105.920 107.042 106.460 106.800 106.721 107.258 107.390 Market-based PCE excluding food and energy 2 .............................. 102.480 104.320 105.567 104.783 105.210 105.351 105.729 105.977 Final sales of domestic product ........................................................ 103.217 105.033 106.516 105.663 106.024 106.199 106.731 107.112 Gross domestic purchases ............................................................... 103.884 105.599 106.834 106.150 106.467 106.526 107.010 107.331 Final sales to domestic purchasers .................................................. 103.898 105.624 106.881 106.171 106.496 106.559 107.053 107.415 Gross national product...................................................................... 103.327 105.131 .................... 105.762 106.116 106.287 106.807 ................... Implicit price deflators: Gross domestic product ................................................................ 103.199 105.002 106.570 105.667 106.105 106.259 106.778 107.121 Final sales of domestic product .................................................... 103.217 105.033 106.516 105.660 106.021 106.196 106.728 107.109 Gross domestic purchases ........................................................... 103.880 105.594 106.934 106.177 106.576 106.619 107.102 107.427 Final sales to domestic purchasers............................................... 103.898 105.624 106.881 106.170 106.494 106.557 107.052 107.413 Gross national product.................................................................. 103.322 105.126 .................... 105.788 106.225 106.380 106.899 ................... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1. Food excludes personal consumption expenditures for purchased meals and beverages, which are classified in food services. 2. This index is a supplemental measure that is based on household expenditures for which there are observable price measures. It excludes most implicit prices (for example, financial services furnished without payment) and the final consumption expenditures of nonprofit institutions serving households. Percentage changes for these series are included in the addenda to table 8 and appendix table A. See “Explanatory Note” at the end of the tables. - 12 - Table 7. Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent Change From Preceding Year Line 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Line Gross domestic product (GDP) ............................................... 4.4 4.8 4.1 1.0 1.8 2.8 3.8 3.4 2.7 1.8 –0.3 –2.8 2.5 1.8 2.8 1.9 Personal consumption expenditures ................................................. 5.3 5.5 5.1 2.5 2.5 3.1 3.8 3.5 3.0 2.2 –0.4 –1.6 2.0 2.5 2.2 2.0 Goods................................................................................................. 6.7 7.9 5.2 3.0 3.9 4.8 5.1 4.1 3.6 2.7 –2.5 –3.0 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.7 Durable goods ................................................................................ 12.1 12.8 8.6 5.2 7.3 7.1 8.2 5.4 4.3 4.6 –5.1 –5.5 6.1 6.6 7.7 7.1 Nondurable goods .......................................................................... 3.7 5.0 3.2 1.7 1.9 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 1.7 –1.1 –1.8 2.2 1.9 1.4 2.1 Services ............................................................................................. 4.6 4.1 5.0 2.2 1.8 2.2 3.2 3.2 2.7 2.0 0.8 –0.8 1.2 2.1 1.6 1.2 Gross private domestic investment ................................................... 9.5 8.4 6.5 –6.1 –0.6 4.1 8.8 6.4 2.1 –3.1 –9.4 –21.6 12.9 4.9 9.5 5.4 Fixed investment ................................................................................ 10.2 8.8 6.9 –1.6 –3.5 4.0 6.7 6.8 2.0 –2.0 –6.8 –16.7 1.5 6.2 8.3 4.3 Nonresidential................................................................................. 10.8 9.7 9.1 –2.4 –6.9 1.9 5.2 7.0 7.1 5.9 –0.7 –15.6 2.5 7.6 7.3 2.6 Structures ................................................................................... 5.1 0.1 7.8 –1.5 –17.7 –3.9 –0.4 1.7 7.2 12.7 6.1 –18.9 –16.4 2.1 12.7 1.3 Equipment................................................................................... 13.1 12.5 9.7 –4.3 –5.4 3.2 7.7 9.6 8.6 3.2 –6.9 –22.9 15.9 12.7 7.6 2.9 Intellectual property products ..................................................... 10.8 12.4 8.9 0.5 –0.5 3.8 5.1 6.5 4.5 4.8 3.0 –1.4 1.9 4.4 3.4 3.1 Residential...................................................................................... 8.6 6.3 0.7 0.9 6.1 9.1 10.0 6.6 –7.6 –18.8 –24.0 –21.2 –2.5 0.5 12.9 12.0 Change in private inventories ............................................................. .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... Net exports of goods and services .................................................... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... Exports ............................................................................................... 2.3 4.6 8.4 –5.7 –1.9 1.6 9.4 6.0 8.9 8.9 5.7 –9.1 11.5 7.1 3.5 2.8 Goods ............................................................................................. 2.2 5.9 10.1 –6.2 –3.5 1.9 8.5 7.4 9.4 7.5 6.1 –12.0 14.3 7.1 3.8 2.5 Services.......................................................................................... 2.6 1.4 3.9 –4.3 2.3 1.0 11.6 3.0 7.7 12.3 4.8 –2.1 5.6 7.0 3.0 3.4 Imports ............................................................................................... 11.7 11.4 12.8 –2.9 3.4 4.3 11.0 6.1 6.1 2.3 –2.6 –13.7 12.8 4.9 2.2 1.4 Goods ............................................................................................. 11.8 12.7 13.1 –3.2 3.7 4.9 11.1 6.7 5.9 1.8 –3.7 –15.8 15.2 5.2 2.1 1.2 Services.......................................................................................... 10.9 4.7 11.0 –0.9 1.8 1.3 10.5 3.1 7.4 4.7 3.1 –3.1 2.8 3.1 2.7 2.5 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment ..... 2.1 3.4 1.9 3.8 4.4 2.2 1.6 0.6 1.5 1.6 2.8 3.2 0.1 –3.2 –1.0 –2.2 Federal ............................................................................................... –0.9 2.0 0.3 3.9 7.2 6.8 4.5 1.7 2.5 1.7 6.8 5.7 4.4 –2.6 –1.4 –5.1 National defense............................................................................. –2.1 1.5 –0.9 3.5 7.0 8.5 6.0 2.0 2.0 2.5 7.5 5.4 3.2 –2.3 –3.2 –7.0 Nondefense .................................................................................... 1.3 2.7 2.3 4.7 7.4 4.1 2.0 1.3 3.5 0.3 5.5 6.2 6.4 –3.0 1.8 –2.0 State and local.................................................................................... 3.8 4.2 2.8 3.7 2.9 –0.4 –0.1 0.0 0.9 1.5 0.3 1.6 –2.7 –3.6 –0.7 –0.2 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product.......................................................... 4.5 4.9 4.2 1.9 1.2 2.8 3.4 3.4 2.6 2.0 0.2 –2.0 1.0 2.0 2.6 1.7 Gross domestic purchases................................................................. 5.5 5.7 4.8 1.1 2.3 3.1 4.2 3.5 2.6 1.1 –1.3 –3.8 2.9 1.7 2.6 1.7 Final sales to domestic purchasers .................................................... 5.6 5.7 4.8 2.0 1.8 3.1 3.9 3.5 2.6 1.4 –0.9 –3.0 1.5 1.8 2.4 1.5 Gross domestic income 1 ................................................................... 5.3 4.5 4.7 1.1 1.4 2.2 3.7 3.6 4.0 0.1 –0.8 –2.6 2.7 2.5 2.5 ........... Gross national product ....................................................................... 4.4 4.9 4.2 1.1 1.7 2.9 3.9 3.3 2.4 2.2 0.0 –3.0 2.8 2.1 2.7 ........... Real disposable personal income ...................................................... 5.9 3.3 5.0 2.8 3.1 2.7 3.6 1.5 4.0 2.1 1.5 –0.5 1.1 2.4 2.0 0.7 Price indexes: Gross domestic purchases ............................................................. 0.7 1.6 2.6 1.9 1.4 2.2 2.9 3.5 3.2 2.7 3.0 –0.2 1.5 2.3 1.7 1.2 Gross domestic purchases excluding food and energy 2 ............... 0.9 1.5 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.7 3.2 3.0 2.5 2.3 0.5 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.3 GDP................................................................................................ 1.1 1.4 2.3 2.3 1.5 2.0 2.7 3.2 3.1 2.7 1.9 0.8 1.2 2.0 1.7 1.4 GDP excluding food and energy 2 .................................................. 1.2 1.5 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.7 3.4 3.1 2.6 2.1 0.5 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.5 Personal consumption expenditures............................................... 0.8 1.5 2.5 1.9 1.3 2.0 2.4 2.9 2.7 2.5 3.1 –0.1 1.7 2.4 1.8 1.1 1. Gross domestic income deflated by the implicit price deflator for gross domestic product. 2. Food excludes personal consumption expenditures for purchased meals and beverages, which are classified in food services. - 13 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 Table 8. Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent Change From Quarter One Year Ago 2010 2011 2012 2013 Line Line I 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Gross domestic product (GDP) .............................................. 1.6 2.7 3.0 2.8 2.0 1.9 1.5 2.0 3.3 2.8 3.1 2.0 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.7 Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) ..................................... 0.7 2.0 2.0 3.1 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.3 Goods................................................................................................ 1.8 3.8 3.0 5.1 4.8 3.5 2.9 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.9 3.5 3.3 3.6 3.8 4.1 Durable goods ............................................................................... 3.6 7.4 4.1 9.3 9.3 5.9 5.5 5.7 6.8 7.8 8.6 7.8 6.9 7.7 7.6 6.4 Nondurable goods ......................................................................... 1.0 2.2 2.5 3.3 2.8 2.5 1.7 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.6 2.0 2.9 Services ............................................................................................ 0.2 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.5 Gross private domestic investment .................................................. 3.9 16.3 21.1 11.1 5.5 3.7 1.1 9.3 14.3 10.1 11.2 3.1 1.7 4.4 6.9 8.5 Fixed investment ............................................................................... –4.4 2.6 2.6 5.5 5.1 4.0 7.7 8.1 10.5 9.5 6.5 6.8 4.3 4.7 5.5 2.9 Nonresidential................................................................................ –4.3 1.5 4.9 8.1 6.8 6.4 8.4 8.6 10.4 9.0 5.0 5.0 2.4 2.4 3.5 2.1 Structures .................................................................................. –26.7 –18.4 –13.8 –4.0 –5.5 –1.2 6.7 8.3 20.4 13.9 8.5 9.3 –0.3 2.1 3.9 –0.6 Equipment.................................................................................. 6.7 16.4 19.7 20.9 16.2 11.4 12.0 11.6 10.7 10.9 4.8 4.5 2.9 2.4 3.4 3.0 Intellectual property products .................................................... 2.6 1.0 2.2 1.8 3.1 4.9 4.7 4.9 4.2 3.5 2.8 2.9 3.5 2.7 3.4 2.8 Residential..................................................................................... –4.5 7.0 –6.9 –5.2 –1.6 –6.0 4.6 5.6 10.7 11.6 13.6 15.5 12.9 15.1 14.2 6.3 Change in private inventories ............................................................ .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... ........... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... Net exports of goods and services ................................................... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... ........... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... Exports .............................................................................................. 10.8 13.1 12.4 9.8 9.1 7.9 6.9 4.6 4.7 4.4 2.8 2.4 1.0 2.0 2.9 5.4 Goods ............................................................................................ 13.9 17.9 14.8 11.0 9.3 7.3 6.6 5.4 4.7 5.1 4.0 1.4 0.2 1.2 2.2 6.6 Services......................................................................................... 4.4 3.6 7.3 7.0 8.5 9.2 7.7 2.7 4.6 2.9 –0.2 4.7 2.8 3.8 4.5 2.6 Imports .............................................................................................. 6.7 16.7 16.3 11.7 9.3 4.6 2.3 3.5 3.0 3.4 2.4 0.1 0.1 1.2 1.6 2.7 Goods ............................................................................................ 8.3 20.3 19.0 13.5 10.8 4.8 2.2 3.4 2.6 3.4 2.6 0.0 –0.2 1.0 1.5 2.6 Services......................................................................................... 0.1 2.2 5.0 3.7 2.3 3.3 2.8 3.9 5.2 3.9 1.2 0.5 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.2 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment .... 1.4 0.3 –0.3 –1.1 –2.3 –3.3 –3.9 –3.3 –1.7 –1.3 0.2 –1.1 –1.8 –2.0 –2.7 –2.3 Federal .............................................................................................. 5.7 4.5 4.0 3.2 –0.5 –2.1 –3.8 –3.9 –1.8 –2.3 0.7 –2.3 –3.8 –4.1 –6.5 –6.1 National defense............................................................................ 5.4 2.9 2.6 2.0 –1.4 –1.3 –2.5 –4.2 –2.2 –4.0 –1.7 –5.0 –6.2 –6.1 –8.9 –6.8 Nondefense ................................................................................... 6.3 7.4 6.6 5.5 1.0 –3.5 –6.2 –3.3 –1.2 0.8 5.1 2.6 0.3 –0.8 –2.2 –5.1 State and local................................................................................... –1.3 –2.4 –3.1 –4.0 –3.6 –4.2 –3.9 –2.8 –1.6 –0.6 –0.2 –0.3 –0.5 –0.5 –0.1 0.3 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product......................................................... 0.4 1.0 0.8 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.4 1.8 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.9 Gross domestic purchases................................................................ 1.3 3.4 3.8 3.2 2.3 1.6 1.0 1.9 3.1 2.7 3.1 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.4 Final sales to domestic purchasers ................................................... 0.2 1.7 1.6 2.5 2.2 1.6 1.8 1.7 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.1 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 Gross domestic income 1 .................................................................. 2.0 2.8 3.6 2.5 2.9 2.8 2.0 2.3 3.1 2.4 2.0 2.6 1.9 2.8 3.1 .......... Gross national product ...................................................................... 2.0 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.3 3.2 2.8 2.9 1.8 1.2 1.5 2.0 .......... Real disposable personal income ..................................................... –0.2 0.3 1.8 2.5 3.7 2.3 2.2 1.4 1.3 1.8 1.3 3.6 0.4 0.9 1.8 –0.1 Price indexes: Gross domestic purchases ............................................................ 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.5 2.7 2.3 2.2 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 Gross domestic purchases excluding food and energy 2 .............. 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 GDP............................................................................................... 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.2 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.3 GDP excluding food and energy 2 ................................................. 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.6 PCE ............................................................................................... 2.1 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.7 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.4 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.1 0.9 PCE excluding food and energy 2.................................................. 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 Market-based PCE 3...................................................................... 2.1 1.6 1.2 1.1 1.7 2.6 3.0 2.7 2.5 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.1 0.9 Market-based PCE excluding food and energy 3 ........................... 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 1. Gross domestic income deflated by the implicit price deflator for gross domestic product. 2. Food excludes personal consumption expenditures for purchased meals and beverages, which are classified in food services. 3. This index is a supplemental measure that is based on household expenditures for which there are observable price measures. It excludes most implicit prices (for example, financial services furnished without payment) and the final consumption expenditures of nonprofit institutions serving households. - 14 - Table 9. Relation of Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, and National Income [Billions of dollars] Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Line 2011 2012 2013 2012 IV 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Gross domestic product ................................................................................................... Plus: Income receipts from the rest of the world ................................................................. Less: Income payments to the rest of the world .................................................................. Equals: Gross national product ....................................................................................... Less: Consumption of fixed capital...................................................................................... Less: Statistical discrepancy ............................................................................................... Equals: National income................................................................................................... Compensation of employees ........................................................................................... Wages and salaries...................................................................................................... Supplements to wages and salaries ............................................................................ Proprietors’ income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments ....... Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment ..................................... Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments............ Net interest and miscellaneous payments ....................................................................... Taxes on production and imports less subsidies.............................................................. Business current transfer payments (net) ........................................................................ Current surplus of government enterprises ..................................................................... Addendum: 18 Gross domestic income ................................................................................................... 2013 Line II III IV 15,533.8 16,244.6 16,803.0 16,420.3 16,535.3 802.8 818.6 ................ 829.8 813.3 542.1 565.7 ................ 572.8 575.9 15,794.6 16,497.4 ................ 16,677.3 16,772.7 2,452.6 2,542.9 2,646.6 2,575.0 2,603.8 –53.7 –17.0 ................ –101.7 –155.6 13,395.7 13,971.6 ................ 14,204.0 14,324.5 8,278.5 8,611.6 8,859.4 8,787.4 8,748.3 6,638.7 6,926.8 7,137.8 7,086.6 7,040.4 1,639.8 1,684.9 1,721.7 1,700.9 1,707.9 1,155.1 1,224.9 1,347.2 1,247.5 1,334.6 484.4 541.2 590.3 555.4 574.9 1,877.7 2,009.5 ................ 2,047.2 2,020.6 456.9 439.6 468.3 430.3 477.0 1,037.2 1,065.6 1,088.7 1,068.6 1,082.7 129.6 106.9 124.1 99.5 121.9 –23.8 –27.7 –39.8 –31.8 –35.5 16,661.0 817.0 570.1 16,907.9 2,631.9 –186.8 14,462.7 8,835.5 7,117.6 1,717.8 1,341.5 587.7 2,087.4 444.0 1,079.9 125.8 –39.0 16,912.9 822.0 559.1 17,175.9 2,659.6 –92.6 14,608.9 8,889.3 7,163.7 1,725.6 1,360.7 596.6 2,126.6 467.2 1,089.9 120.1 –41.4 17,102.5 ................ ................ ................ 2,691.1 ................ ................ 8,964.7 7,229.4 1,735.3 1,352.0 602.2 ................ 485.0 1,102.3 128.8 –43.2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 15,587.5 16,847.8 17,005.6 ................ 18 16,261.6 ................ 16,522.0 I 16,690.9 Table 10. Personal Income and Its Disposition [Billions of dollars] Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Line 2011 2012 2013 2012 IV 2013 I II Line III IV Personal income 1 ............................................................................................................. 13,191.3 13,743.8 14,133.5 14,073.1 13,925.9 14,086.2 14,226.2 14,295.6 Compensation of employees ........................................................................................... 8,278.5 8,611.6 8,859.4 8,787.4 8,748.3 8,835.5 8,889.3 8,964.7 Wages and salaries...................................................................................................... 6,638.7 6,926.8 7,137.8 7,086.6 7,040.4 7,117.6 7,163.7 7,229.4 Supplements to wages and salaries ............................................................................ 1,639.8 1,684.9 1,721.7 1,700.9 1,707.9 1,717.8 1,725.6 1,735.3 Proprietors’ income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments ....... 1,155.1 1,224.9 1,347.2 1,247.5 1,334.6 1,341.5 1,360.7 1,352.0 Farm............................................................................................................................. 72.6 75.4 126.8 74.5 137.0 129.0 131.7 109.4 Nonfarm ....................................................................................................................... 1,082.6 1,149.6 1,220.4 1,173.0 1,197.6 1,212.5 1,229.0 1,242.6 Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment ..................................... 484.4 541.2 590.3 555.4 574.9 587.7 596.6 602.2 Personal income receipts on assets ................................................................................ 1,884.6 1,958.5 1,997.6 2,062.8 1,935.8 1,994.0 2,030.7 2,030.0 Personal interest income.............................................................................................. 1,204.1 1,211.6 1,228.3 1,218.4 1,215.8 1,225.6 1,234.2 1,237.7 Personal dividend income ............................................................................................ 680.5 746.9 769.3 844.3 720.0 768.4 796.5 792.3 Personal current transfer receipts .................................................................................... 2,306.9 2,358.3 2,444.9 2,388.0 2,426.0 2,430.9 2,458.0 2,464.8 Less: Contributions for government social insurance, domestic ...................................... 918.2 950.7 1,106.0 967.9 1,093.7 1,103.3 1,109.1 1,118.1 1,404.0 1,498.0 1,659.3 1,552.8 1,629.0 1,668.8 1,657.8 1,681.5 Less: Personal current taxes ............................................................................................... Equals: Disposable personal income.............................................................................. 11,787.4 12,245.8 12,474.2 12,520.4 12,296.9 12,417.4 12,568.4 12,614.1 Less: Personal outlays......................................................................................................... 11,119.1 11,558.4 11,912.8 11,696.2 11,794.9 11,837.0 11,950.4 12,069.0 Equals: Personal saving ................................................................................................... 668.2 687.4 561.4 824.1 502.0 580.4 618.0 545.1 Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income ................................... 5.7 5.6 4.5 6.6 4.1 4.7 4.9 4.3 Addenda: 19 Personal income excluding current transfer receipts, billions of chained (2009) dollars 2 10,457.1 10,740.1 10,904.8 10,959.6 10,756.9 10,905.4 10,958.9 10,998.1 20 Disposable personal income, billions of chained (2009) dollars 2.................................... 11,324.6 11,551.6 11,637.8 11,743.0 11,502.4 11,618.5 11,704.1 11,726.2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 1. Personal income is also equal to national income less corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, taxes on production and imports less subsidies, contributions for government social insurance, net interest and miscellaneous payments, business current transfer payments (net), and current surplus of government enterprises, plus personal income receipts on assets, and personal current transfer receipts. 2. The current-dollar measure is deflated by the implicit price deflator for personal consumption expenditures. - 15 - Appendix Table A. Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Aggregates and Price Indexes: Percent Change From Preceding Period and Contributions to Percent Change Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Line 2011 2012 2013 2010 I II 2011 III IV I II 2012 III IV 1.4 –0.3 1.3 9.5 11.0 1.1 –2.8 1.4 1.1 1.4 6.6 1.7 4.9 15.5 –0.2 8.4 25.4 4.4 44.3 4.7 –0.3 5.0 43.0 5.9 I II 2013 III IV I II Line III IV Percent change from preceding period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Gross domestic product (GDP) and related aggregates: GDP ................................................................................. Goods............................................................................... Services ........................................................................... Structures......................................................................... Motor vehicle output......................................................... GDP excluding motor vehicle output ................................ Final sales of computers 1 ............................................... GDP excluding final sales of computers .......................... Research and development ............................................. GDP excluding research and development...................... Farm gross value added 2 ................................................ Nonfarm business gross value added 3 ........................... Price indexes: GDP ................................................................................. GDP excluding food and energy 4 .................................... GDP excluding final sales of computers .......................... Gross domestic purchases............................................... Gross domestic purchases excluding food and energy 4 Gross domestic purchases excluding final sales of computers to domestic purchasers .............................. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) ..................... PCE excluding food and energy 4 .................................... Market-based PCE 5 ........................................................ Market-based PCE excluding food and energy 5 ............. 1.8 4.3 1.1 –1.7 10.1 1.7 10.2 1.8 1.3 1.9 –5.1 2.5 2.8 5.1 1.2 7.3 13.2 2.5 12.9 2.7 –0.3 2.9 –1.1 3.7 1.9 1.6 3.9 2.8 2.8 –1.3 3.2 4.5 10.4 4.7 9.7 6.0 –0.9 5.9 0.5 0.1 2.0 1.7 1.6 0.2 1.5 3.8 –16.7 18.3 –13.8 0.5 –15.3 8.2 3.6 36.8 18.0 24.1 –13.2 31.5 –5.2 1.9 0.9 3.6 2.3 3.2 –2.0 3.4 11.1 27.5 –27.2 –8.0 34.6 22.6 0.5 1.9 1.5 4.1 2.8 2.7 –1.4 3.2 0.9 1.1 –1.0 5.7 2.2 –0.1 1.0 1.9 1.6 4.0 2.7 2.8 –1.3 3.2 18.8 –16.9 29.8 –1.2 –25.6 12.1 –31.3 2.3 2.0 4.7 4.2 4.2 –2.1 4.7 3.7 1.2 2.8 0.1 1.1 5.6 0.6 4.8 –1.2 5.5 2.4 1.1 1.6 –0.6 0.3 7.3 4.5 4.7 12.7 –9.2 28.4 6.3 0.2 –2.8 9.2 3.1 1.1 2.9 0.2 0.9 35.0 –21.7 0.9 50.3 17.5 3.6 1.3 2.8 0.0 1.1 –1.1 –2.2 1.7 0.4 –0.2 3.8 1.3 2.8 0.1 1.2 –3.0 5.1 –30.8 –27.0 179.6 5.0 1.6 4.2 0.7 –0.3 2.5 4.1 3.2 3.9 10.7 10.4 0.7 0.2 0.8 11.9 11.1 –5.1 12.1 –12.9 17.8 2.2 4.7 2.8 15.4 –12.4 –11.0 2.4 4.2 3.3 1.9 3.0 0.6 2.5 4.2 3.3 9.0 15.4 –21.3 3.3 5.4 4.9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.3 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.3 1.9 1.3 1.1 2.1 1.7 2.1 2.3 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.7 2.8 1.8 2.6 2.6 2.7 3.5 2.6 2.5 1.9 2.5 2.0 1.8 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.9 1.0 2.0 2.4 2.0 2.3 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.8 1.0 1.5 2.3 1.3 2.3 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.4 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.8 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.7 13 14 15 16 17 2.4 2.4 1.4 2.5 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.8 1.4 1.0 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.5 1.1 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.1 0.8 2.3 2.1 0.8 2.1 0.6 3.0 3.0 1.3 3.4 1.5 3.6 3.7 2.2 4.0 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.0 2.4 2.1 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.6 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.2 1.0 1.1 1.8 0.9 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.4 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.6 0.3 –0.1 0.6 –0.3 0.5 1.9 1.9 1.4 2.0 1.4 1.2 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.9 18 19 20 21 22 4.9 3.7 1.2 2.8 0.1 1.1 2.5 4.1 3.2 23 1.20 3.19 3.12 0.46 0.14 0.50 0.82 0.80 –0.39 0.32 –0.38 0.44 0.06 –0.05 –0.04 0.05 0.08 0.02 24 25 26 27 28 29 Contributions to percent change in real gross domestic product 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 Percent change at annual rate: Gross domestic product ............................................ 1.8 2.8 Percentage points at annual rates: Goods .................................................................................. 1.26 1.53 Services ............................................................................... 0.70 0.76 Structures ............................................................................ –0.12 0.49 Motor vehicle output............................................................. 0.23 0.32 Final sales of computers...................................................... 0.04 0.05 Research and development ................................................. 0.04 –0.01 1.9 1.6 3.9 2.8 2.8 –1.3 3.2 1.4 1.36 2.90 1.40 2.74 1.74 –0.31 1.71 –0.10 4.43 1.72 0.22 0.29 0.02 1.30 1.09 1.03 0.13 0.95 0.85 –0.12 1.50 0.69 0.27 –1.33 1.20 –1.05 0.04 –1.11 0.53 0.62 0.56 0.49 0.30 0.10 0.67 0.38 0.50 –0.32 0.63 –0.13 0.25 0.57 0.66 0.17 0.04 0.11 –0.14 –0.03 0.12 0.09 0.01 –0.01 0.15 0.13 –0.11 0.02 0.03 –0.03 0.14 0.06 0.00 0.03 0.03 –0.01 –0.03 –0.06 1.46 –0.36 1.63 1.00 –0.35 0.21 0.32 0.85 –0.70 0.01 –0.07 0.24 0.00 0.16 0.07 0.04 0.01 0.00 1. For some components of final sales of computers, includes computer parts. 2. Farm output less intermediate goods and services purchased. 3. Consists of GDP less gross value added of farm, of households and institutions, and of general government. 4. Food excludes personal consumption expenditures for purchased meals and beverages, which are classified in food services. 5. This index is a supplemental measure that is based on household expenditures for which there are observable price measures. It excludes most implicit prices (for example, financial services furnished without payment) and the final consumption expenditures of nonprofit institutions serving households. See “Explanatory Note” at the end of the tables. - 16 - Explanatory Note: NIPA Measures of Quantities and Prices Current-dollar GDP is a measure of the market value of goods, services, and structures produced in the economy in a particular period. Changes in current-dollar GDP can be decomposed into quantity and price components. Quantities, or "real" measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with the reference year -- at present, the year 2009 -- equal to 100. Annual changes in quantities and prices are calculated using a Fisher formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent years. (Quarterly changes in quantities and prices are calculated using a Fisher formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent quarters; quarterly indexes are adjusted for consistency to the annual indexes before percent changes are calculated.) For example, the 2008-09 annual percent change in real GDP uses prices for 2008 and 2009 as weights, and the 2008-09 annual percent change in GDP prices uses quantities for 2008 and 2009 as weights. These annual changes are "chained" (multiplied) together to form time series of quantity and price indexes. Percent changes in Fisher indexes are not affected by the choice of reference year. (BEA also publishes a measure of the price level known as the implicit price deflator (IPD), which is calculated as the ratio of the current-dollar value to the corresponding chained-dollar value, multiplied by 100. The values of the IPD are very close to the values of the corresponding "chain-type" price index.) Index numbers of quantity and price indexes for GDP and its major components are presented in this release in tables 5 and 6. Percent changes from the preceding period are presented in tables 1, 4, 7, 8, and appendix table A. Contributions by major components to the percent change in real GDP are presented in table 2. Measures of real GDP and its major components are also presented in dollar-denominated form, designated "chained (2009) dollar estimates." For most series, these estimates, which are presented in table 3, are computed by multiplying the current-dollar value in 2009 by a corresponding quantity index number and then dividing by 100. For example, if a current-dollar GDP component equaled $100 in 2009 and if real output for this component increased 10 percent in 2010, then the chained (2009) dollar value of this component in 2010 would be $110 (= $100 x 110 / 100). Percent changes calculated from chained-dollar estimates and from chain-type quantity indexes are the same; any differences will be small and due to rounding. Chained-dollar values for the detailed GDP components will not necessarily sum to the chained-dollar estimate of GDP (or to any intermediate aggregate). This is because the relative prices used as weights for any period other than the reference year differ from those of the reference year. A measure of the extent of such differences is provided by a “residual” line, which indicates the difference between GDP (or other major aggregate) and the sum of the most detailed components in the table. For periods close to the reference year, when there usually has not been much change in the relative prices that are used as weights, the residuals tend to be small, and the chained-dollar estimates can be used to approximate the contributions to growth and to aggregate the detailed estimates. For periods further from the reference year, the residuals tend to be larger, and the chained-dollar estimates are less useful for analyses of contributions to growth. Thus, the contributions to percent change shown in table 2 provide a better measure of the composition of GDP growth. In particular, for components for which relative prices are changing rapidly, calculation of contributions using chained-dollar estimates may be misleading even just a few years from the reference year. Reference "Chained-Dollar Indexes: Issues, Tips on Their Use, and Upcoming Changes," November 2003 Survey, pp. 8-16. - 17 -
@FedFRASER