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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
Fourth Quarter of 2012 (Second Estimate)
February 28, 2013
This technical note provides background information about the source data and
estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release.
The complete set of estimates for the fourth quarter is available on BEA's Web site at
www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also posted on the Web site. In a few
weeks, the estimates will be published in BEA's monthly journal, the Survey of Current
Business, along with a more detailed analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the
Economy").
Sources of Revision to Real GDP
Real GDP increased 0.1 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter, an upward revision
of 0.2 percentage point from the advance estimate. The upward revision to the percent
change in real GDP is smaller than the average revision from the advance to second
estimate of 0.5 percentage point. The revision reflected an upward revision to exports, a
downward revision to imports, and an upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment
that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment.
•
•
•
The revisions to exports and imports were mainly based on newly available Census
goods data for December and revised data for November.
The upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment was more than accounted for
by an upward revision to structures that was based on newly available Census
construction spending for December and revised data for October and November.
The downward revision to private inventory investment reflected downward revisions
to wholesale trade inventories and to mining, utilities, and construction inventories
that were partly offset by an upward revision to retail trade inventories. The revised
estimates reflected newly available Census Bureau manufacturing and trade
inventory data for December, revised data for November, and preliminary fourthquarter Census quarterly financial report data for mining industries.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.5 percent in the fourth
quarter, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage point. This revision was mostly due to
prices for personal consumption expenditures and reflected revised Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS) seasonally adjusted consumer price indexes.
Revisions to Wages and Salaries, Disposable Personal Income, and GDI
In addition to presenting revised estimates for the fourth quarter, today's release also
presents revised estimates of third-quarter wages and salaries, personal taxes, and
contributions for government social insurance. Wage and salary disbursements are now
estimated to have increased $39.3 billion in the third quarter of 2012, an upward revision
of $6.8 billion. These estimates reflect newly available wage and salary tabulations for
the third quarter from the BLS quarterly census of employment and wages (QCEW).
These data are more comprehensive than the monthly employment and earnings data
that were used for the earlier estimates—the QCEW data include irregular pay, such as
bonuses and gains from the exercise of stock options.
Real disposable personal income is now estimated to have increased 0.7 percent
(annual rate) in the third quarter and 6.2 percent in the fourth. (By comparison, the
estimates that were available last month showed increases of 0.5 percent in the third
quarter and 6.8 percent in the fourth.)
The revision to third-quarter wages and salaries also resulted in a revision to GDI. Real
GDI is now estimated to have increased 1.6 percent in the third quarter, an upward
revision of 0.2 percentage point.
Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9606
Table A.--SOURCE DATA FOR THE ADVANCE AND SECOND
ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2012
This table shows the actual data used for the second estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of
2012. For these key series, actual data for December were not available in time for inclusion in the
advance GDP estimate released on January 30, 2013, and BEA made assumptions for these source
data. The numbers in brackets show the December values that had been assumed for the advance
estimate. For most series, the data incorporated for November and, in some cases, for October were
preliminary, and the numbers shown in brackets are the values used last month.
All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are
published by the Bureau of the Census.
2012
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Private fixed investment:
Nonresidential structures:
1 Value of new nonresidential
construction put in place………..
297.7
295.5
297.0
302.1
{296.5}
301.2
{294.5}
306.7
{295.5}
Residential structures:
Value of new residential
construction put in place:
2
Single family………………………..
127.7
131.6
136.4
141.5
{141.4}
143.7
{143.3}
144.8
{145.6}
21.9
22.4
22.6
23.9
{23.8}
24.3
{23.9}
25.8
{24.2}
3
Multifamily…………………………..
Change in private inventories:
NOTE: Historical (Jul.–Oct.) data may reflect concurrent seasonal factors.
4 Change in inventories for nondurable
manufacturing………………………..
5.5
{4.6}
17.7
{16.9}
36.2
{35.5}
-17.4
{-16.4}
-9.2
{-9.9}
5.3
{11.7}
54.9
{54.0}
38.2
{41.8}
66.6
{64.5}
49.3
{44.8}
37.3
{38.7}
26.3
{45.2}
Net exports:
Exports of goods:
5 U.S. exports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis…………………….
1566.3
1542.4
1605.0
1529.7
5a
Excluding gold………………………
1540.4
1513.4
1567.3
1502.4
1551.1
{1551.7}
1517.2
{1517.7}
1590.8
{1550.3}
1542.5
{1515.1}
Imports of goods:
U.S. imports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis……………………..
2259.9
2249.7
2294.0
2239.9
2243.4
2229.9
2274.9
2221.9
2338.4
{2340.2}
2315.4
{2317.2}
2265.2
{2300.8}
2246.1
{2283.0}
7 Net exports of goods…………………..
-693.6
-707.4
-688.9
-710.1
7a
-703.0
-716.5
-707.6
-719.5
-787.3
{-788.5}
-798.2
{-799.5}
-674.4
{-750.5}
-703.6
{-767.9}
249.4
252.6
251.0
248.3
{251.5}
249.4
{251.7}
245.1
{251.6}
4a Change in inventories for merchant
wholesale and retail industries other
than motor vehicles and equipment…
6
6a
Excluding gold……………………..
Excluding gold……………………..
Government:
State and local:
Structures:
8
Value of new construction put
in place……………………………..