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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
Fourth Quarter of 2009 (Third Estimate)
March 26, 2010
This technical note provides background information about the source data and
estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news
release. The complete set of estimates for the fourth quarter is available on
BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also posted
on the Web site. In a few weeks, the estimates will be published in BEA's
monthly journal, the Survey of Current Business, along with a more detailed
analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the Economy").
Sources of Revision to Real GDP
Real GDP growth in the fourth quarter was 5.6 percent (annual rate), which was
0.3 percentage point less than last month’s estimate.
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Nonresidential fixed investment was revised down, reflecting a downward
revision to investment in nonresidential structures. The revision was
based on revised Census Bureau construction spending data for
November and December.
Private inventory investment was revised down, reflecting small downward
revisions to wholesale trade, to manufacturing, and to construction,
mining, and utilities. The revisions were based on revised Census
inventory data for November and December and newly available Energy
Information Administration data on utilities inventories.
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) were revised down, reflecting a
downward revision to financial service charges and fees. The revision
was based on incorporation of newly available fourth-quarter Call Report
data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).
The price index for gross domestic purchases—the prices paid by U.S. residents
for goods and services, wherever produced—increased 2.0 percent in the fourth
quarter, 0.1 percentage point more than last month’s estimate. The revision was
mainly to PCE prices and reflected upward revisions to financial services and
insurance and to health care. The revision to the price of financial services was
mainly to “financial services furnished without payment” and was based on newly
available Call Report data. The revision to the price of health care was based on
a revised Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price index for physicians.
Corporate Profits
Profits from current production increased $108.7 billion, or 8.0 percent (quarterly
rate), in the fourth quarter. Domestic profits of financial corporations increased
$65.0 billion, domestic profits of nonfinancial corporations increased $59.8 billion,
and rest-of-the-world profits decreased $16.1 billion in the fourth quarter.
Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9606
@FedFRASER