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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
Fourth Quarter of 2009 (Second Estimate)
February 26, 2010
This technical note provides background information about the source data and
estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news
release. The complete set of estimates for the fourth quarter is available on
BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also posted
on the Web site. In a few weeks, the estimates will be published in BEA's
monthly journal, the Survey of Current Business, along with a more detailed
analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the Economy").
Sources of Revision to Real GDP
The real GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter was revised from 5.7 percent to
5.9 percent (annual rate).
•
•
•
Imports and exports were revised up, reflecting newly available
Census Bureau goods data for December.
Inventory investment was revised up, reflecting newly available
Census inventory data for December and revised data for November.
Business investment in software was revised up, reflecting newly
available revenue data from fourth-quarter financial statements of
software companies.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.9 percent in the fourth
quarter, a downward revision of 0.2 percentage point from the advance estimate.
This revision was mostly due to prices for personal consumption expenditures
and reflected revised Bureau of Labor Statistics seasonally adjusted consumer
price indexes.
Revisions to Wages and Salaries and Disposable Personal Income
In addition to presenting revised estimates for the fourth quarter, today's release
also presents revised estimates of third-quarter wages and salaries, personal
taxes, and contributions for government social insurance. Wage and salary
disbursements are now estimated to have decreased $63.9 billion in the third
quarter, a downward revision of $84.0 billion. These estimates reflect newly
available wage and salary tabulations for the third quarter from the BLS quarterly
census of employment and wages. These data are more comprehensive than
the monthly employment and earnings data that were used for the earlier
estimates—the QCEW data include the pay of supervisors and irregular pay,
such as bonuses and gains from the exercise of stock options.
Real disposable personal income is now estimated to have decreased 3.6
percent in the third quarter and to have increased 1.9 percent in the fourth. (By
comparison, the estimates that were available last month showed a decrease of
1.4 percent in the third quarter and an increase of 2.1 percent in the fourth.)
Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9606
Table A.--SOURCE DATA FOR THE ADVANCE AND SECOND
ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2009
This table shows the actual data used for the "second" estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of
2009. For these key series, actual data for December were not available in time for inclusion in the
advance GDP estimate released on January 29, 2010, and BEA made assumptions for these source
data. The numbers in brackets show the December values that had been assumed for the advance
estimate. For most series, the data incorporated for November and, in some cases, for October, were
preliminary, and the numbers shown in brackets are the values used last month.
All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are
published by the Bureau of the Census.
2009
Jul.
Private fixed investment:
Nonresidential structures:
1 Value of new nonresidential
construction put in place………..
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
371.2
360.5
347.2
334.8
{330.6}
331.8
{330.5}
332.5
{330.6}
32.5
33.8
43.0
34.0
37.0
{37.0}
46.5
{44.1}
102.5
106.9
109.5
111.3
{111.2}
113.0
{112.7}
113.7
{112.2}
28.6
26.4
24.5
23.2
{24.0}
22.1
{23.0}
21.2
{22.9}
-9.6
2.3
-11.0
34.5
19.2
{18.5}
0.1
{-21.4}
-83.4
-80.0
-61.3
11.1
63.6
{53.9}
-18.3
{-45.9}
Net exports:
Exports of goods:
6 U.S. exports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis…………………….
1040.1
1041.1
1082.5
1120.6
6a
Excluding gold………………………
1027.4
1025.9
1067.6
Imports of goods:
U.S. imports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis……………………..
1553.0
1545.0
1651.0
1542.9
1537.2
1642.5
8 Net exports of goods…………………..
-512.9
-503.9
-568.5
8a
-515.5
-511.3
-574.9
295.9
292.7
292.3
2
Equipment and software:
Manufacturers' shipments of
complete aircraft……………………
Residential structures:
Value of new residential
construction put in place:
3
Single family………………………..
4
Multifamily…………………………..
Change in private inventories:
5 Change in inventories for nondurable
manufacturing………………………..
5a Change in inventories for merchant
wholesale and retail industries other
than motor vehicles and equipment…
7
7a
Excluding gold……………………..
Excluding gold……………………..
Government:
State and local:
Structures:
9
Value of new construction put
in place……………………………..
1133.5 1189.3
{1135.6} {1145.9}
1103.8 1121.7 1172.0
{1123.8} {1135.1}
1662.6
1714.6 1811.3
{1716.1} {1746.4}
1651.7 1703.5 1801.5
{1704.7} {1735.3}
-542.0
-581.1
-622.0
{-580.5} {-600.5}
-547.9
-581.7
-629.5
{-580.9} {-600.2}
287.7
{293.1}
283.4
{291.6}
279.1
{292.3}