The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
Fourth Quarter of 2009 (Advance)
January 29, 2010
This technical note provides background information about the source data and
estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news
release. The complete set of estimates for the fourth quarter is available on
BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also posted
on the Web site. In a few weeks, the estimates will be published in BEA's
monthly journal, the Survey of Current Business, along with a more detailed
analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the Economy").
Real GDP
Real GDP increased 5.7 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter, following an
increase of 2.2 percent in the third quarter. The acceleration in real GDP in the
fourth quarter reflected an acceleration in inventory investment, a deceleration in
imports, and an upturn in business fixed investment that were partly offset by
decelerations in federal government and consumer spending.
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
The advance GDP estimate for the fourth quarter of 2009 is based on source
data that are incomplete and subject to revision. Three months of source data
were available for consumer spending on goods; shipments of capital equipment
other than aircraft; motor vehicle sales and inventories; manufacturing durables
inventories; federal government outlays; and consumer, producer, and
international prices. Only two months of data were available for most other key
data sources; BEA’s assumptions for the third month are shown in table A.
Among those assumptions are the following:
•
•
•
•
a decrease in nondurable manufacturing inventories,
a decrease in non-motor-vehicle merchant wholesale and retail
inventories,
an increase in exports of goods, excluding gold, and
an increase in imports of goods, excluding gold.
Prices
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.1 percent in the fourth
quarter after increasing 1.3 percent in the third quarter. Excluding food and
energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.2
percent in the fourth quarter, after increasing 0.3 percent in the third.
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
BEA's national accounts include the effects of the federal outlays and tax cuts
included in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. Because
most of the outlays and tax reductions from ARRA during the last four quarters
were in the form of grants to state and local governments, tax reductions for
individual and business taxpayers, and social benefits to households, their
effects on GDP show up indirectly through the effects on GDP components such
as consumer spending, residential investment, and state and local government
spending. Thus, BEA’s accounts do not directly identify the portion of GDP
expenditures that is funded by ARRA. It is possible, however, to identify the
effects of ARRA on components of income.
During the fourth quarter, ARRA provisions lowered personal taxes about $85
billion (annual rate) and raised government social benefits to persons about $69
billion, thus raising disposable personal income about $154 billion. Corporate
taxes were also lowered about $20 billion. ARRA funded about $80 billion in
current grants to state and local governments (such as Medicaid and education
grants), about $25 billion in capital transfers to state and local governments and
home buyers, and about $3 billion in subsidies for housing and energy. Further
information, including estimates of the effects of ARRA for the first three quarters
of 2009, is available at http://www.bea.gov/recovery/index.htm.
Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9606
Table A. KEY ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE ADVANCE ESTIMATE OF GDP
FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2009
For many of the key series used to prepare the advance estimate of GDP, including retail sales,
unit automobile and truck sales and inventories, manufacturers' shipments of nondefense
capital goods (other than aircraft), manufacturers' inventories of durable goods, federal defense
spending, and consumer, producer, and international price indexes, actual data are available for all
months of the quarter.
For the key series shown in this table, actual data for the third month of the quarter usually are not
available in time for inclusion in the advance GDP estimate. BEA makes assumptions for the source
data that are not yet available; assumptions for December 2009 are shown in the last column of the
table. For most series shown, the data for November are preliminary and subject to further revision.
Occasionally, the data for earlier months are also subject to revision.
All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are
published by the Bureau of the Census.
2009
Jul.
Private fixed investment:
Nonresidential structures:
1 Value of new nonresidential
construction put in place………..
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.*
371.2
360.5
347.2
330.6
330.5
330.6
Equipment and software:
Manufacturers' shipments of
complete aircraft…………………..
32.5
33.8
43.0
34.0
37.0
44.1
Residential structures:
Value of new residential
construction put in place:
3
Single family………………………..
102.5
106.9
109.5
111.2
112.7
112.2
28.6
26.4
24.5
24.0
23.0
22.9
-9.6
2.3
-11.0
34.5
18.5
-21.4
-83.4
-80.0
-61.3
11.1
53.9
-45.9
Net exports:
Exports of goods:
6 U.S. exports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis……………………
1041.2
1042.2
1083.6
1121.6
1135.6
1145.9
6a
1028.4
1027.0
1068.6
1104.9
1123.8
1135.1
1554.2
1546.2
1652.2
1663.8
1716.1
1746.4
Excluding gold……………………..
1544.1
1538.4
1643.7
1652.9
1704.7
1735.3
8 Net exports of goods………………….
-513.1
-504.0
-568.6
-542.1
-580.5
-600.5
8a
-515.7
-511.4
-575.1
-548.1
-580.9
-600.2
295.9
292.7
292.3
293.1
291.6
292.3
2
4
Multifamily…………………………..
Change in private inventories:
5 Change in inventories for nondurable
manufacturing………………………..
5a Change in inventories for merchant
wholesale and retail industries other
than motor vehicles and equipment…
7
Excluding gold………………………
Imports of goods:
U.S. imports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis...............…..…....
7a
Excluding gold……………………..
Government:
State and local:
Structures:
9
Value of new construction put
in place……………………………..
____________
*Assumption.
@FedFRASER