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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
Fourth Quarter of 2007 (Preliminary)
February 28, 2008
This technical note provides background information about the source data and
estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release.
The complete set of estimates for the fourth quarter is available on BEA's Web site at
www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also posted on the Web site. In a few
weeks, the estimates will be published in BEA's monthly journal, the Survey of Current
Business, along with a more detailed analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the
Economy").
Sources of Revision to Real GDP
The real GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter was 0.6 percent (annual rate), the same
as in the advance estimate.
•
•
Imports were revised down and exports were revised up, reflecting newly
available Census goods data for December.
Inventory investment was revised down, reflecting newly available Census
Bureau inventory data for December.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.9 percent in the fourth
quarter, which was 0.1 percentage point more than the advance estimate. The upward
revision was mainly to the personal consumption expenditures price index and reflected
revised seasonal adjustment factors for the detailed consumer price indexes that are
used for deflation.
Revisions to Wages and Salaries and Disposable Personal Income
Wage and salary accruals for the fourth quarter are now estimated to have increased
$76.5 billion, an upward revision of $7.0 billion. The revision to fourth-quarter accrued
wages and salaries partly reflects an adjustment for irregular pay—types of pay such as
bonus payments that are not included in the usual monthly source data—which added
about $15 billion to the fourth quarter. The adjustment to fourth-quarter wage and salary
accruals is based on estimates of financial industry bonuses from state governments
and other sources. The disbursement of these accrued bonus payments will be
reflected in the personal income estimates for the first quarter of 2008.
In addition to presenting preliminary estimates for the fourth quarter, today's news
release also presents revised estimates of third-quarter wages and salaries, personal
taxes, and contributions for government social insurance. Wage and salary
disbursements are now estimated to have increased $63.8 billion in the third quarter, a
downward revision of $10.8 billion. These estimates reflect newly available wage and
salary tabulations for the third quarter from the Bureau of Labor Statistics quarterly
census of employment and wages. These data are more comprehensive than the
monthly employment and earnings data that were used for the earlier estimates—they
include the pay of supervisors and irregular pay, such as bonuses and gains from the
exercise of stock options.
Real disposable personal income is now estimated to have increased 4.0 percent in the
third quarter and to have decreased 0.3 percent in the fourth. (By comparison, the
estimates that were available last month showed an increase of 4.5 percent in the third
quarter and an increase of 0.3 percent in the fourth.)
Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9606
Table A.--SOURCE DATA FOR THE ADVANCE AND PRELIMINARY
ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2007
This table shows the actual data used for the preliminary estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of
2007. For these key series, actual data for December were not available in time for inclusion in the
advance GDP estimate released on January 30, 2008, and BEA made assumptions for these source
data. The numbers in brackets show the December values that had been assumed for the advance
estimate. For most series, the data incorporated for November and, in some cases, for October, were
preliminary, and the numbers shown in brackets are the values used last month.
All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are
published by the Bureau of the Census.
2007
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
346.4
355.8
365.1
369.1
{369.5}
375.6
{375.8}
380.4
{378.6}
42.4
50.2
42.0
49.1
47.4
{47.4}
46.0
{39.6}
Residential structures:
Value of new residential
construction put in place:
3
Single family………………………..
308.6
298.3
286.9
274.6
{274.9}
260.6
{261.2}
246.7
{246.3}
4
48.8
48.3
47.5
46.6
{47.2}
46.9
{47.4}
46.1
{48.5}
3.9
-1.9
24.0
-4.7
18.3
{15.2}
11.0
{24.0}
18.8
21.3
37.0
30.4
10.2
{0.7}
68.0
{66.7}
Net exports:
Exports of goods:
6 U.S. exports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis…………………….
1180.0
1184.4
1201.0
1206.9
6a
Excluding gold………………………
1168.1
1167.1
1187.4
1193.9
Imports of goods:
U.S. imports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis……………………..
1996.6
1980.8
1994.6
2013.5
1984.5
1971.5
1983.9
2005.3
8 Net exports of goods…………………..
-816.6
-796.4
-793.6
-806.7
8a
-816.5
-804.4
-796.5
-811.4
267.4
269.2
275.3
277.7
{277.2}
Private fixed investment:
Nonresidential structures:
1 Value of new nonresidential
construction put in place………..
2
Equipment and software:
Manufacturers' shipments of
complete aircraft……………………
Multifamily…………………………..
Change in private inventories:
5 Change in inventories for nondurable
manufacturing………………………..
5a Change in inventories for merchant
wholesale and retail industries other
than motor vehicles and equipment…
7
7a
Excluding gold……………………..
Excluding gold……………………..
Government:
State and local:
Structures:
9
Value of new construction put
in place……………………………..
1209.3 1236.9
{1211.4} {1225.7}
1198.7 1224.5
{1200.9} {1211.5}
2083.2 2055.6
{2083.9} {2083.8}
2078.2 2048.4
{2078.8} {2075.3}
-873.9
-818.7
{-872.5} {-858.1}
-879.5
-823.9
{-877.9} {-863.8}
281.6
{284.1}
277.4
{283.5}