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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
Fourth Quarter of 2006 (Preliminary)
February 28, 2007
This technical note provides background information about the source data and
estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release.
The complete set of estimates for the fourth quarter is available on BEA's Web site at
www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also posted on the Web site. In a few
weeks, the estimates will be published in BEA's monthly journal, the Survey of Current
Business, along with a more detailed analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the
Economy").
Sources of Revision to Real GDP
The real GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter was revised from 3.5 percent to 2.2
percent (annual rate). This month’s GDP revision is relatively large. The average
revision (without regard to sign) between the “advance” and “preliminary” estimates is
0.5 percentage point, and a revision of 1.3 percentage points or larger has occurred only
seven times in 30 years. This month, most of the major components of GDP were
revised down. Typically, revisions to the components tend to offset each other.
C
C
C
Inventory investment was revised down, reflecting newly available Census
Bureau inventory data for December and revised data for November.
Consumer spending for goods was revised down, reflecting revised Census retail
sales data for November and December and newly available motor vehicle
registration data for December.
Imports were revised up, reflecting newly available Census goods data for
December.
Revisions to Wages and Salaries and Disposable Personal Income
Wage-and-salary accruals for the fourth quarter are now estimated to have increased
$134.2 billion, an upward revision of $43.4 billion. The revision to fourth-quarter accrued
wages and salaries mostly reflected irregular pay such as bonus payments and gains on
the exercise of stock options (types of pay not included in the usual monthly source
data), which added about $50 billion to the fourth quarter. The adjustment to fourthquarter wage-and-salary accruals is based on data from state governments and other
sources. The disbursement of these accrued wages and salaries will be reflected in the
personal income estimates for the first quarter of 2007.
In addition to presenting preliminary estimates for the fourth quarter, today’s news
release also presents revised estimates of third-quarter wages and salaries, personal
taxes, and contributions for government social insurance. Wage-and-salary accruals are
now estimated to have increased $46.7 billion in the third quarter, a downward revision
of $26.9 billion. These estimates reflect newly available wage-and-salary tabulations for
the third quarter from the Bureau of Labor Statistics quarterly census of employment and
wages. These data are more comprehensive than the monthly employment and
earnings data that were used for the earlier estimates—they include the pay of
supervisors and irregular pay, such as bonuses and gains from the exercise of stock
options.
Real disposable personal income is now estimated to have increased 3.2 percent in the
third quarter and to have increased 5.3 percent in the fourth. (By comparison, the
estimates that were available last month showed an increase of 4.1 percent in the third
quarter and an increase of 5.4 percent in the fourth.)
Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9606
Table A.--SOURCE DATA FOR THE ADVANCE AND PRELIMINARY
ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2006
This table shows the actual data used for the preliminary estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of
2006. For these key series, actual data for December were not available in time for inclusion in the
advance GDP estimate released on January 31, 2007, and BEA made assumptions for these source
data. The numbers in brackets show the December values that had been assumed for the advance
estimate. For most series, the data incorporated for November and, in some cases, for October, were
preliminary, and the numbers shown in brackets are the values used last month.
All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are
published by the Bureau of the Census.
2006
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
303.0
312.1
310.5
307.5
{312.0}
311.8
{316.5}
314.5
{314.2}
30.6
34.8
38.8
34.4
34.2
{34.2}
33.5
{33.5}
Residential structures:
Value of new residential
construction put in place:
3
Single family………………………..
411.3
400.1
388.7
375.1
{374.0}
363.9
{362.5}
355.8
{356.0}
4
55.4
56.4
57.3
59.0
{59.4}
59.1
{60.1}
57.8
{59.0}
7.5
9.3
-4.4
-8.6
0.8
{4.6}
-8.8
{5.0}
49.8
84.0
30.3
24.0
56.6
{68.5}
12.3
{71.1}
Net exports:
Exports of goods:
6 U.S. exports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis…………………….
1022.3
1053.1
1059.9
1058.9
6a
Excluding gold………………………
1014.7
1042.8
1049.1
1049.6
Imports of goods:
U.S. imports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis……………………..
1904.8
1952.6
1904.5
1840.3
1898.9
1947.7
1898.8
1934.8
8 Net exports of goods…………………..
-882.5
-899.5
-844.6
-781.4
8a
-884.2
-904.9
-849.7
-785.2
252.2
252.3
253.0
253.4
{255.9}
Private fixed investment:
Nonresidential structures:
1 Value of new nonresidential
construction put in place………..
2
Equipment and software:
Manufacturers' shipments of
complete aircraft……………………
Multifamily…………………………..
Change in private inventories:
5 Change in inventories for nondurable
manufacturing………………………..
5a Change in inventories for merchant
wholesale and retail industries other
than motor vehicles and equipment…
7
7a
Excluding gold……………………..
Excluding gold……………………..
Government:
State and local:
Structures:
9
Value of new construction put
in place……………………………..
1068.1 1073.0
{1069.1} {1077.5}
1059.9 1063.5
{1060.9} {1069.3}
1845.4 1891.2
{1845.5} {1872.4}
1840.6 1886.1
{1840.8} {1867.4}
-777.2
-818.2
{-776.4} {-794.9}
-780.7
-822.7
{-779.8} {-798.1}
258.7
{258.7}
261.8
{257.3}
@FedFRASER