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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
Fourth Quarter of 2006 (Advance)
January 31, 2007
This technical note provides background information about the source data and
estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release.
The complete set of estimates for the fourth quarter is available on BEA's Web site at
www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also posted on the Web site. In a few
weeks, the estimates will be published in BEA's monthly journal, the Survey of Current
Business, along with a more detailed analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the
Economy").
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
The advance GDP estimate for the fourth quarter of 2006 is based on source data that
are incomplete and subject to revision. Three months of source data were available for
consumer spending on goods; shipments of capital equipment other than aircraft; motor
vehicle sales and inventories; manufacturing durables inventories; federal government
outlays; and consumer, producer, and international prices. Only two months of data
were available for most other key data sources; BEA’s assumptions for the third month
are shown in table A. Among those assumptions are the following:
•
•
•
•
an increase in nondurable manufacturing inventory investment,
an increase in non-motor-vehicle merchant retail and wholesale inventory
investment,
an increase in exports of goods, excluding gold, and
an increase in imports of goods, excluding gold.
Prices
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S.
residents, increased 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter after increasing 2.2 percent in the
third. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases
increased 2.3 percent after increasing 2.2 percent. The price index for GDP, which
measures the prices of goods and services produced in the United States, increased 1.5
percent in the fourth quarter after increasing 1.9 percent. The difference between the
GDP price index and the gross domestic purchases price index reflects the prices of
imports (including petroleum products), which are included in gross domestic purchases
prices but not in GDP prices, and exports, which are included in GDP prices but not in
gross domestic purchases prices.
Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9606
Table A. KEY ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE ADVANCE ESTIMATE OF GDP
FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2006
For many of the key series used to prepare the advance estimate of GDP, including retail sales,
unit automobile and truck sales and inventories, manufacturers' shipments of nondefense
capital goods (other than aircraft), manufacturers' inventories of durable goods, federal defense
spending, and consumer, producer, and international price indexes, actual data are available for all
months of the quarter.
For the key series shown in this table, actual data for the third month of the quarter usually are not
available in time for inclusion in the advance GDP estimate. BEA makes assumptions for the source
data that are not yet available; assumptions for December 2006 are shown in the last column of the
table. For most series shown, the data for November are preliminary and subject to further revision.
Occasionally, the data for earlier months are also subject to revision.
All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are
published by the Bureau of the Census.
2006
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.*
303.0
312.1
310.5
312.0
316.5
314.2
Equipment and software:
Manufacturers' shipments of
complete aircraft…………………..
30.6
34.8
38.8
34.4
34.2
33.5
Residential structures:
Value of new residential
construction put in place:
3
Single family………………………..
411.3
398.7
388.7
374.0
362.5
356.0
4
55.4
55.6
57.3
59.4
60.1
59.0
Change in private inventories:
5 Change in inventories for nondurable
manufacturing………………………..
7.5
9.3
-4.4
-8.6
4.6
5.0
5a Change in inventories for merchant
wholesale and retail industries other
than motor vehicles and equipment…
49.8
84.0
30.3
24.0
68.5
71.1
Net exports:
Exports of goods:
6 U.S. exports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis……………………
1025.5
1056.3
1063.4
1062.0
1069.1
1077.5
6a
1017.8
1046.0
1052.2
1052.7
1060.9
1069.3
1906.9
1954.7
1906.6
1842.3
1845.5
1872.4
Excluding gold……………………..
1900.9
1949.7
1900.8
1836.9
1840.8
1867.4
8 Net exports of goods………………….
-881.4
-898.4
-843.2
-780.3
-776.4
-794.9
8a
-883.1
-903.8
-846.6
-784.1
-779.8
-798.1
252.2
252.3
253.0
255.9
258.7
257.3
Private fixed investment:
Nonresidential structures:
1 Value of new nonresidential
construction put in place………..
2
7
Multifamily…………………………..
Excluding gold………………………
Imports of goods:
U.S. imports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis...............…..…....
7a
Excluding gold……………………..
Government:
State and local:
Structures:
9
Value of new construction put
in place……………………………..
____________
*Assumption.