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Gross Domestic Product
First Quarter of 2016 (Third Estimate)
June 28, 2016
This technical note provides background information about the source data and estimating methods
used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release. The complete set of estimates for
the first quarter of 2016 is available on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights"
is also posted on the Web site. In a few weeks, the Survey of Current Business, BEA’s online monthly
journal, will publish a more detailed analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the Economy").
Sources of Revision to Real GDP
Real GDP increased 1.1 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter, an upward revision of 0.3 percentage
point from the second estimate. The revision to real GDP primarily reflected upward revisions to exports
and to nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer
spending.
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The upward revision to exports was based on revised Census Bureau goods data for January
through March and on the annual revision of the international transactions accounts, which was
incorporated on a best-change basis.
The upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment mostly reflected an upward revision to
intellectual property products—specifically, software and research and development. The
revision to software reflected newly available Census quarterly services survey (QSS) data for
the first quarter, and the revision to research and development reflected data from an updated
sample of corporate financial statements.
The downward revision to consumer spending was mainly to services—specifically, downward
revisions to nonprofit, transportation, financial, and recreation services, with a partially
offsetting upward revision to health care services. These revisions reflected newly available
Census QSS data, newly available data on air passenger revenue from the Bureau of
Transportation Statistics, and newly available SEC FOCUS Report data.
The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2 percent in the first quarter, a
downward revision of 0.1 percentage point. The downward revision was primarily to health care
services and reflected revised producer price indexes for physician and home health care services.
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Gross Domestic Income and Corporate Profits
Real gross domestic income (GDI), which measures the value of the production of goods and services in
the United States as the costs incurred and the incomes earned in production, increased 2.9 percent in
the first quarter, an upward revision of 0.7 percentage point. The upward revision primarily reflected an
upward revision to corporate profits.
Profits from current production increased $34.7 billion, or 1.8 percent (quarterly rate), in the first
quarter, compared with a decrease of $159.6 billion, or 7.8 percent, in the fourth. In the first quarter,
profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $11.3 billion, profits of domestic nonfinancial
corporations increased $72.9 billion, and rest-of-the-world profits decreased $269.5 billion.
Annual Revision Scheduled for July 29
The annual revision of the national income and product accounts will be released along with the
“advance” estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2016 on July 29. GDP will be revised for the most
recent 3 years (2013 through 2015) and for the first quarter of 2016. For more information, see
“Preview of the Upcoming Annual NIPA Revision” included in the May Survey of Current Business article
on “GDP and the Economy”. The August Survey will contain an article that describes the results.
Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(301) 278-9606
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@FedFRASER