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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
First Quarter of 2015 (Second Estimate)
May 29, 2015
This technical note provides background information about the source data and estimating
methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release. The complete
set of estimates for the first quarter is available on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov; a brief
summary of "highlights" is also posted on the Web site. In a few weeks the Survey of Current
Business, BEA’s online monthly journal, will publish a more detailed analysis of the
estimates (“GDP and the Economy”).
Sources of Revision to Real GDP
Real GDP decreased 0.7 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter, a downward revision of 0.9
percentage point from the advance estimate. The revision reflected an upward revision to
imports and downward revisions to inventory investment and to consumer spending that were
partly offset by an upward revision to residential fixed investment.
•
•
•
•
The upward revision to imports was mainly to goods and reflected newly available Census
Bureau data for March and revised data for February.
The downward revision to inventory investment reflected downward revisions to
manufacturing, wholesale trade, and retail trade industries based on newly available
Census inventory data for March and revised data for January and February. Benchmarked
Census inventories data for retail and wholesale trade and for manufacturing were
incorporated on a best-change basis.
The downward revision to consumer spending was primarily to services, specifically,
communication services, based on newly available cellular telephone service provider
revenue data for the first quarter.
The upward revision to residential fixed investment reflected upward revisions to single
family and to “other” structures. For single family, the revision reflected newly available
Census construction spending data for March and revised data for February. For “other”
structures, the revision was primarily to improvements based on newly available BLS
remodelers’ payroll data for March.
The price index for gross domestic purchases decreased 1.6 percent in the first quarter, 0.1
percentage point more of a decrease than in the advance estimate. The largest contributor
to the revision was a downward revision to residential fixed investment prices that reflected
the incorporation of a revised Census price index for houses under construction.
Gross Domestic Income and Corporate Profits
Real gross domestic income (GDI), which measures the output of the economy as the costs
incurred and the incomes earned in the production of GDP, increased 1.4 percent in the first
quarter. For a given quarter, the estimates of GDP and GDI may differ for a variety of
reasons, including the incorporation of largely independent source data. However, over
longer time spans, the estimates of GDP and GDI tend to follow similar patterns of change.
Profits from current production decreased $125.5 billion, or 5.9 percent (quarterly rate), in
the first quarter. Domestic profits of financial corporations decreased $2.6 billion, domestic
profits of nonfinancial corporations decreased $100.4 billion, and rest-of-the-world profits
decreased $22.4 billion.
Taxes on corporate income increased $9.3 billion in the first quarter, reflecting the expiration
of both the 50-percent bonus depreciation provision and increased Section 179 expensing
limits claimed under extensions of the 2010 tax acts. For detailed data, see the table “Net
Effects of the Tax Acts of 2002, 2003, 2008, 2009, 2010 (and extensions) on Selected
Measures of Corporate Profits.”
BEA’s estimates of profits from current production (“corporate profits with inventory
valuation adjustment (IVA) and capital consumption adjustment (CCAdj)”) are not affected
by these tax acts because profits from current production do not depend on the
depreciation-accounting practices used for federal income tax purposes. BEA’s measure of
current-production profits reflects economic accounting practices in which depreciation is
based on an estimate of the reduction in the value of fixed capital used in the production
process. For a more detailed discussion on the effect of tax act provisions on the CCAdj,
see FAQ 1002, “How do the economic stimulus acts impact NIPA Corporate Profits?”
Revisions to Wages and Salaries, Disposable Personal Income, and GDI
In addition to presenting revised estimates for the first quarter, today's release presents
revised estimates of fourth-quarter wages and salaries, personal taxes, and contributions for
government social insurance. Wages and salaries are now estimated to have increased
$117.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2014, an upward revision of $22.7 billion. These
estimates reflect newly available wage and salary tabulations for the fourth quarter from the
BLS quarterly census of employment and wages (QCEW). These data are more
comprehensive than the monthly employment and earnings data that were used for the earlier
estimates—the QCEW data include irregular pay, such as bonuses and gains from the
exercise of stock options.
Real disposable personal income is now estimated to have increased 4.1 percent (annual
rate) in the fourth quarter and increased 5.3 percent in the first. (By comparison, the
estimates that were available last month showed an increase of 3.6 percent in the fourth
quarter and an increase of 6.2 percent in the first.)
The revision to fourth-quarter wages and salaries also resulted in a revision to GDI. Real
GDI is now estimated to have increased 3.7 percent in the fourth quarter, an upward revision
of 0.6 percentage point.
Annual Revision Scheduled for July 30
The annual revision of the national income and product accounts will be released along with
the “advance” estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2015 on July 30. In addition to the
regular revision of the estimates for the most recent 3 years and for the first quarter of 2015,
some series will be revised back further. The June Survey of Current Business will contain an
article that previews the annual revision, and the August Survey will contain an article that
describes the results.
Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9606
Table A.--SOURCE DATA FOR THE ADVANCE AND SECOND
ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2015
This table shows the actual data used for the second estimate of GDP for the first quarter of 2015. For these key
series, actual data for March were not available in time for inclusion in the advance GDP estimate released on April
29, 2015, and BEA made assumptions for these source data. The numbers in brackets show the March values that
had been assumed for the advance estimate. For most series, the data incorporated for February and, in some
cases, for January were preliminary, and the numbers shown in brackets are the values used last month.
All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are published by the
Census Bureau.
Oct.
2014
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
2015
Feb.
Mar.
Private fixed investment:
Nonresidential structures:
1 Value of new nonresidential
construction put in place………..
346.9
351.0
354.8
348.4
{346.5}
350.1
{348.4}
353.4
{347.4}
Residential structures:
Value of new residential
construction put in place:
2
Single family………………………..
198.4
201.0
204.2
206.7
{206.8}
204.4
{203.9}
200.8
{200.3}
47.0
47.3
48.9
48.4
{48.9}
50.2
{50.9}
49.2
{50.0}
3
Multifamily…………………………..
Change in private inventories:
NOTE: Historical (Oct.–Jan.) data may reflect concurrent seasonal factors.
4 Change in inventories for nondurable
manufacturing………………………..
-19.3
{-17.5}
-15.8
{-12.0}
-60.2
{-52.8}
-71.4
{-50.6}
-2.4
{-1.0}
-15.8
{-8.3}
62.0
{59.4}
42.2
{54.6}
11.8
{4.9}
13.8
{16.4}
24.9
{24.0}
14.4
{73.8}
Net exports:
Exports of goods:
5 U.S. exports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis…………………….
1667.4
1642.9
1610.6
1542.5
5a
Excluding gold………………………
1636.2
1607.2
1590.3
1518.6
1507.1
{1507.6}
1489.1
{1489.6}
1524.8
{1538.7}
1500.9
{1512.8}
Imports of goods:
U.S. imports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis……………………..
2401.4
2350.9
2390.8
2292.9
2386.2
2338.9
2374.0
2280.9
2175.2
{2169.8}
2163.5
{2158.0}
2371.6
{2313.7}
2359.6
{2300.1}
7 Net exports of goods…………………..
-734.0
-708.0
-780.2
-750.4
7a
-750.0
-731.8
-783.7
-762.4
-668.1
{-662.1}
-674.4
{-668.4}
-846.7
{-775.0}
-858.7
{-787.3}
260.5
252.9
256.1
248.8
{249.3}
244.8
{245.3}
241.9
{247.3}
4a Change in inventories for merchant
wholesale and retail industries other
than motor vehicles and equipment…
6
6a
Excluding gold……………………..
Excluding gold……………………..
Government:
State and local:
Structures:
8
Value of new construction put
in place……………………………..
5/29/2015, 8:30 AM
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