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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
First Quarter of 2014 (Third Estimate)
June 25, 2014
This technical note provides background information about the source data and
estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release.
The complete set of estimates for the first quarter is available on BEA's Web site at
www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also posted on the Web site. In a few
weeks, the estimates will be published in BEA's online monthly journal, the Survey of
Current Business, along with a more detailed analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the
Economy").
Sources of Revision to Real GDP
Real GDP decreased 2.9 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter, a downward revision
of 1.9 percentage points from the second estimate. The revision to GDP reflected
downward revisions to consumer spending and to exports and an upward revision to
imports:
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The downward revision to consumer spending was mostly to services, especially
to health care services. The revision to health care services reflected the
incorporation of newly available Census Bureau quarterly services survey (QSS)
data for the first quarter. The QSS data reflect the revenues of for-profit and
nonprofit hospitals, physician offices, nursing homes, and other health care
providers and the expenses of nonprofit hospitals and other nonprofit health care
providers. Prior to receiving the Census QSS data, BEA used information on
Medicaid benefits and on Affordable Care Act insurance exchange enrollments to
prepare the previously published estimates of health services.
The downward revision to exports reflected downward revisions to both services
and goods, which were based on revised Census goods data for January through
March and the annual revision of the international transactions accounts (ITAs),
which was incorporated on a best-change basis.
The upward revision to imports reflected upward revisions to both goods and
services, which were based on revised Census goods data and the annual
revision of the ITAs.
The price index for gross domestic purchases—the prices paid by U.S. residents for
goods and services wherever produced—increased 1.3 percent in the first quarter,
unrevised from the second estimate.
Gross Domestic Income and Corporate Profits
Real gross domestic income (GDI), which measures the output of the economy as the
costs incurred and the incomes earned in the production of GDP, decreased 2.6 percent
in the first quarter, a downward revision of 0.3 percentage point from the previous
estimate. For a given quarter, the estimates of GDP and GDI may differ for a variety of
reasons, including the incorporation of largely independent source data. However, over
longer time spans, the estimates of GDP and GDI tend to follow similar patterns of
change.
Profits from current production decreased $198.3 billion, or 9.1 percent (quarterly rate),
in the first quarter. Domestic profits of financial corporations decreased $71.3 billion,
domestic profits of nonfinancial corporations decreased $101.2 billion, and rest-of-theworld profits decreased $25.7 billion.
Annual Revision Scheduled for July 30
The annual revision of the national income and product accounts (NIPAs) will be
released along with the “advance” estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2014 on
July 30. In addition to the regular revision of estimates for the most recent 3 years and
for the first quarter of 2014, GDP and select components will be revised back to the first
quarter of 1999. More information is available in "Preview of Upcoming NIPA Revision"
in the May Survey of Current Business and on BEA's Web site. The August Survey will
contain an article that describes the annual revision in detail.
Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9606
@FedFRASER