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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
First Quarter of 2012 (Second Estimate)
May 31, 2012
This technical note provides background information about the source data and
estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release.
The complete set of estimates for the first quarter is available on BEA's Web site at
www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also posted on the Web site. In a few
weeks, the estimates will be published in BEA's monthly journal, the Survey of Current
Business, along with a more detailed analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the
Economy").
Sources of Revision to Real GDP
Real GDP increased 1.9 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter, a downward revision of
0.3 percentage point from the advance estimate. The downward revision to real GDP
reflected a downward revision to private inventory investment, an upward revision to
imports, and downward revisions to state and local government spending and to
consumer spending that were partly offset by upward revisions to nonresidential fixed
investment and to exports.
•
•
•
•
•
The downward revision to inventory investment reflected downward revisions to
manufacturing, wholesale trade, and retail trade inventories and was based on
newly available Census Bureau inventory data for March and revised data for
January and February.
The upward revisions to both imports and exports reflected newly available
Census goods data for March and revised data for February.
The downward revision to state and local government spending was based on
newly available Census construction spending data for March and revised data
for January and February.
The downward revision to consumer spending reflected downward revisions to
both goods and services.
• Within goods, the largest downward revision was to motor vehicles and parts,
which was based on newly available motor vehicle registration data for
March. Other revisions to goods were based on benchmarked Census retail
sales data, which were incorporated on a best-change basis.
• Within services, the largest downward revisions were to electricity services,
based on newly available Energy Information Administration usage and unit
value data for February, and to communication services, based on newly
available first-quarter revenue data from various cellular telephone service
providers.
The upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment reflected upward
revisions to both structures and equipment and software.
• The revision to structures reflected newly available Census construction data
for March and revised data for January and February and revised Department
of Energy data on footage drilled.
• The revision to equipment and software was primarily to information
processing equipment and was based on benchmarked M3 manufacturing
shipments data from the Census Bureau, which were incorporated on a best-
change basis, and on newly available and revised Census imports and
exports data.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.4 percent in the first quarter,
the same increase as in the advance estimate.
Gross Domestic Income and Corporate Profits
Real gross domestic income (GDI), which measures the output of the economy as the
costs incurred and the incomes earned in the production of GDP, increased 2.7 percent
in the first quarter. For a given quarter, the estimates of GDP and GDI may differ for a
variety of reasons, including the incorporation of largely independent source data.
However, over longer time spans, the estimates of GDP and GDI tend to follow similar
patterns of change.
Profits from current production before taxes increased $11.4 billion, or 0.6
percent (quarterly rate), in the first quarter. Domestic profits of financial corporations
increased $20.6 billion, domestic profits of nonfinancial corporations increased $6.3
billion, and rest-of-the-world profits decreased $15.5 billion. Profits from current
production after taxes decreased $64.4 billion, as taxes on corporate income increased
$75.8 billion. About $50 billion of the increase in corporate taxes reflected the expiration
of "bonus depreciation" claimed under the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance
Reauthorization and Job Creation Act of 2010. For more information on the effects of
bonus depreciation, see FAQ #999, "Why does the capital consumption adjustment for
domestic business decline so much in the first quarters of 2011 and 2012?”
Revisions to Wages and Salaries, Disposable Personal Income, and GDI
In addition to presenting revised estimates for the first quarter, today's release also
presents revised estimates of fourth-quarter wages and salaries, personal taxes, and
contributions for government social insurance. Wage and salary disbursements are now
estimated to have increased $28.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2011, a downward
revision of $60.2 billion. These estimates reflect newly available wage and salary
tabulations for the fourth quarter from the BLS quarterly census of employment and
wages (QCEW). These data are more comprehensive than the monthly employment
and earnings data that were used for the earlier estimates—the QCEW data include
irregular pay, such as bonuses and gains from the exercise of stock options.
Real disposable personal income is now estimated to have increased 0.2 percent in the
fourth quarter. (By comparison, the estimates that were available last month showed an
increase of 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter. The 0.4 percent increase in real DPI in the
first quarter is the same as in last month's estimates.)
The revision to fourth-quarter wages and salaries also results in a revision to GDI. Real
GDI is now estimated to have increased 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter, a downward
revision of 1.8 percentage points.
Annual Revision Scheduled for July 27
The GDP news release on July 27 will present the regular annual revision of the national
income and product accounts. In addition to presenting the advance estimate of GDP
for the second quarter of 2012, most estimates, including GDP, national income,
personal income, and their components, will be revised from the first quarter of 2009
through the first quarter of 2012. The revised estimates will incorporate source data that
are more complete and more detailed than those previously available, including:
•
•
•
•
Census Bureau annual surveys of manufactures, of wholesale trade, of retail
trade, of services, and of state and local governments;
revised BEA international transactions accounts data;
federal government budget data; and
Internal Revenue Service tabulations of tax returns for corporations and for sole
proprietorships and partnerships.
The annual revision will also incorporate refinements to estimating methodologies,
including the following:
•
Data from the Census Bureau’s expanded service annual survey (SAS) and
quarterly services survey (QSS) will be incorporated into the annual and quarterly
estimates of several components of household utilities, of transportation services,
and of education services. The percentage of quarterly PCE services that will be
based on the QSS will increase to 42 percent.
Additional information about the annual revision, including draft versions of the revised
NIPA table formats, will be posted on BEA’s Web site over the next few weeks.
Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9606
Table A.--SOURCE DATA FOR THE ADVANCE AND SECOND
ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2012
This table shows the actual data used for the second estimate of GDP for the first quarter of
2012. For these key series, actual data for March were not available in time for inclusion in the
advance GDP estimate released on April 27, 2012, and BEA made assumptions for these source
data. The numbers in brackets show the March values that had been assumed for the advance
estimate. For most series, the data incorporated for February and, in some cases, for January were
preliminary, and the numbers shown in brackets are the values used last month.
All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are
published by the Bureau of the Census.
Oct.
2011
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
2012
Feb.
Mar.
Private fixed investment:
Nonresidential structures:
1 Value of new nonresidential
construction put in place………..
280.8
283.6
292.0
290.7
{285.3}
285.7
{280.8}
287.8
{283.1}
Residential structures:
Value of new residential
construction put in place:
2
Single family………………………..
107.4
108.8
110.8
114.1
{113.2}
112.6
{111.5}
116.9
{116.3}
15.2
16.3
16.4
16.5
{16.9}
17.1
{17.2}
16.6
{17.9}
3
Multifamily…………………………..
Change in private inventories:
NOTE: Historical (October–January) data may reflect concurrent seasonal factors.
4 Change in inventories for nondurable
manufacturing………………………..
50.3
{50.4}
9.7
{11.5}
-3.2
{-4.8}
18.6
{19.7}
9.3
{10.5}
-2.0
{20.9}
75.9
{75.1}
26.0
{27.3}
57.0
{60.9}
44.6
{41.7}
70.1
{63.5}
19.8
{66.6}
Net exports:
Exports of goods:
5 U.S. exports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis…………………….
1533.8
1510.0
1520.7
1542.5
5a
Excluding gold………………………
1489.4
1478.4
1487.4
Imports of goods:
U.S. imports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis……………………..
2235.5
2264.1
2301.1
2219.1
2247.4
2284.2
7 Net exports of goods…………………..
-701.6
-754.0
-780.5
7a
-729.6
-769.0
-796.8
254.5
257.9
257.8
4a Change in inventories for merchant
wholesale and retail industries other
than motor vehicles and equipment…
6
6a
Excluding gold……………………..
Excluding gold……………………..
Government:
State and local:
Structures:
8
Value of new construction put
in place……………………………..
1535.2 1592.0
{1535.8} {1557.6}
1499.6 1494.8 1551.4
{1495.5} {1515.4}
2350.5
2268.3 2403.4
{2272.5} {2363.3}
2334.3 2252.2 2388.5
{2256.3} {2346.3}
-808.1
-733.1
-811.4
{-736.7} {-805.6}
-834.7
-757.4
-837.1
{-760.9} {-830.9}
252.8
{259.2}
251.3
{253.9}
247.3
{256.5}
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