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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
First Quarter of 2012 (Advance)
April 27, 2012
This technical note provides background information about the source data and
estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news
release. The complete set of estimates for the first quarter is available on BEA's
Web site at www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also posted on the
Web site. In a few weeks, the estimates will be published in BEA's monthly
journal, the Survey of Current Business, along with a more detailed analysis of
the estimates ("GDP and the Economy").
Real GDP
Real GDP increased 2.2 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter of 2012,
following an increase of 3.0 percent in the fourth quarter. The deceleration in
real GDP in the first quarter reflected a deceleration in inventory investment
and a downturn in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by
accelerations in consumer spending and in exports.
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
The advance GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2012 is based on source data
that are incomplete and subject to revision. Three months of source data were
available for consumer spending on goods; shipments of capital equipment,
including aircraft; motor vehicle sales and inventories; manufacturing durables
inventories; federal government outlays; and consumer, producer, and
international prices. Only two months of data were available from most other key
data sources; BEA’s assumptions for the third month are shown in table A.
Among those assumptions are the following:
•
•
•
•
an increase in nondurable manufacturing inventories,
an increase in non-motor-vehicle merchant wholesale and retail
inventories,
an increase in exports of goods, excluding gold, and
an increase in imports of goods, excluding gold.
Prices
The price index for gross domestic purchases—the prices paid by U.S. residents
for goods and services wherever produced—increased 2.4 percent in the first
quarter after increasing 1.1 percent in the fourth. Excluding food and energy
prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.2 percent after
increasing 1.2 percent.
Disposable Personal Income and Personal Saving
Real disposable personal income (DPI) increased 0.4 percent in the first quarter,
following an increase of 1.7 percent in the fourth. Current-dollar DPI increased
2.8 percent, following an increase of 2.9 percent. The personal saving rate was
3.9 percent in the first quarter, compared with 4.5 percent in the fourth.
Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9606
Table A. KEY ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE ADVANCE ESTIMATE OF GDP
FOR THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2012
For many of the key series used to prepare the advance estimate of GDP, including retail sales,
unit automobile and truck sales and inventories, manufacturers' shipments of nondefense
capital goods, manufacturers' inventories of durable goods, federal defense spending,
and consumer, producer, and international price indexes, actual data are available for all
months of the quarter.
For the key series shown in this table, actual data for the third month of the quarter usually are not
available in time for inclusion in the advance GDP estimate. BEA makes assumptions for the source
data that are not yet available; assumptions for March 2012 are shown in the last column of the
table. For most series shown, the data for February are preliminary and subject to further revision.
Occasionally, the data for earlier months are also subject to revision.
All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are
published by the Bureau of the Census.
Oct.
2011
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
2012
Feb.
Mar.*
Private fixed investment:
Nonresidential structures:
1 Value of new nonresidential
construction put in place………..
280.8
283.6
292.0
285.3
280.8
283.1
Residential structures:
Value of new residential
construction put in place:
2
Single family………………………..
107.4
108.8
110.8
113.2
111.5
116.3
3
15.2
16.3
16.4
16.9
17.2
17.9
Multifamily…………………………..
Change in private inventories:
NOTE: Historical (October–January) data may reflect concurrent seasonal factors.
4 Change in inventories for nondurable
manufacturing………………………..
50.4
11.5
-4.8
19.7
10.5
20.9
4a Change in inventories for merchant
wholesale and retail industries other
than motor vehicles and equipment…
75.1
27.3
60.9
41.7
63.5
66.6
Net exports:
Exports of goods:
5 U.S. exports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis……………………
1533.8
1510.0
1520.7
1542.5
1535.8
1557.6
5a
1489.4
1478.4
1487.4
1499.6
1495.5
1515.4
2235.5
2264.1
2301.1
2350.5
2272.5
2363.3
Excluding gold……………………..
2219.1
2247.4
2284.2
2334.3
2256.3
2346.3
7 Net exports of goods………………….
-701.6
-754.0
-780.5
-808.1
-736.7
-805.6
7a
-729.6
-769.0
-796.8
-834.7
-760.9
-830.9
254.5
257.9
257.8
259.2
253.9
256.5
6
Excluding gold………………………
Imports of goods:
U.S. imports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis...............…..…....
6a
Excluding gold……………………..
Government:
State and local:
Structures:
8
Value of new construction put
in place……………………………..
____________
*Assumption.