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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
First Quarter of 2010 (Second Estimate)
May 27, 2010
This technical note provides background information about the source data and
estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news
release. The complete set of estimates for the first quarter is available on BEA's
Web site at www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also posted on the
Web site. In a few weeks, the estimates will be published in BEA's monthly
journal, the Survey of Current Business, along with a more detailed analysis of
the estimates ("GDP and the Economy").
Sources of Revision to Real GDP
The real GDP growth rate in the first quarter was revised from 3.2 percent to 3.0
percent (annual rate). Downward revisions to consumer spending, business
fixed investment, and net exports were partly offset by an upward revision to
inventory investment.
•
•
•
•
Consumer spending was revised down. The largest contributor to the
revision was electricity and gas, based on newly available usage and unit
value data for February and March from the Energy Information
Administration. Benchmarked Census retail trade source data were also
incorporated on a best-change basis.
Business fixed investment was revised down. The largest contributor to
the revision was software, based on newly available revenue data from
first-quarter financial statements of software companies.
Net exports were revised down, reflecting a larger upward revision to
imports than to exports. These revisions were based on newly available
Census Bureau goods data for March.
Inventory investment was revised up. The largest contributors were
durable goods manufacturing and wholesale trade industries. The
revisions reflected newly available Census nondurable manufacturing and
trade inventories for March and benchmarked manufacturing and trade
inventories, which were incorporated on a best-change basis. (BEA
applies the “best change” to the level of inventories.)
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.7 percent in the first
quarter, the same as in the advance estimate.
Corporate Profits
Profits from current production increased $81.4 billion, or 5.5 percent (quarterly
rate), in the first quarter, after increasing $108.7 billion, or 8.0 percent, in the
fourth.
The profits estimates also show a large change in the capital consumption
adjustment, which is the difference between the depreciation specified in the tax
code and BEA’s measure of economic depreciation (“consumption of fixed
capital”). The capital consumption adjustment decreased $107.2 billion in the
first quarter, with revised estimates of “bonus depreciation” from the Office of Tax
Analysis more than accounting for the decrease. Profits from current production
are not affected by the revised estimates of bonus depreciation because they do
not depend on the depreciation-accounting practices used for federal income tax
returns; rather, they are based on depreciation of fixed assets valued at current
cost and using consistent depreciation profiles based on used-asset prices.
Revisions to Wages and Salaries and Disposable Personal Income
In addition to presenting revised estimates for the first quarter, today's release
also presents revised estimates of fourth-quarter wages and salaries, personal
taxes, and contributions for government social insurance. Wage and salary
disbursements are now estimated to have decreased $13.2 billion in the fourth
quarter, a downward revision of $30.3 billion. These estimates reflect newly
available wage and salary tabulations for the fourth quarter from the BLS
quarterly census of employment and wages. These data are more
comprehensive than the monthly employment and earnings data that were used
for the earlier estimates—the QCEW data include irregular pay, such as bonuses
and gains from the exercise of stock options.
First-quarter disposable personal income was boosted by a downward revision to
personal current taxes, which was based on federal tax collections data through
April.
Real disposable personal income is now estimated to have been essentially
unchanged (0.0 percent) in the fourth quarter and to have increased 1.9 percent
in the first. (By comparison, the estimates that were available last month showed
an increase of 1.0 percent in the fourth quarter and essentially no change in the
first.)
Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9606
Table A.--SOURCE DATA FOR THE ADVANCE AND SECOND
ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2010
This table shows the actual data used for the "second" estimate of GDP for the first quarter of
2010. For these key series, actual data for March were not available in time for inclusion in the
advance GDP estimate released on April 30, 2010, and BEA made assumptions for these source
data. The numbers in brackets show the March values that had been assumed for the advance
estimate. For most series, the data incorporated for February and, in some cases, for January, were
preliminary, and the numbers shown in brackets are the values used last month.
All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are
published by the Bureau of the Census.
Oct.
Private fixed investment:
Nonresidential structures:
1 Value of new nonresidential
construction put in place………..
2009
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
2010
Feb.
Mar.
334.8
325.6
315.9
305.5
{303.8}
301.1
{302.7}
299.0
{303.3}
34.0
37.0
48.3
30.2
31.5
{31.5}
32.2
{29.4}
111.3
113.0
114.7
115.9
{115.5}
117.0
{115.4}
118.9
{118.7}
23.2
21.4
19.6
17.4
{17.6}
16.9
{17.6}
15.8
{18.2}
50.1
23.1
4.2
16.6
38.1
{30.2}
5.3
{15.4}
7.5
36.5
-9.6
4.9
19.1
{24.3}
31.7
{30.2}
Net exports:
Exports of goods:
6 U.S. exports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis…………………….
1120.6
1133.5
1189.0
1181.1
6a
Excluding gold………………………
1103.8
1121.7
1171.7
Imports of goods:
U.S. imports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis……………………..
1662.6
1714.6
1811.9
1651.7
1703.4
1801.6
8 Net exports of goods…………………..
-542.0
-581.0
-622.9
8a
-547.9
-581.7
-629.9
287.7
280.5
274.3
2
Equipment and software:
Manufacturers' shipments of
complete aircraft……………………
Residential structures:
Value of new residential
construction put in place:
3
Single family………………………..
4
Multifamily…………………………..
Change in private inventories:
5 Change in inventories for nondurable
manufacturing………………………..
5a Change in inventories for merchant
wholesale and retail industries other
than motor vehicles and equipment…
7
7a
Excluding gold……………………..
Excluding gold……………………..
Government:
State and local:
Structures:
9
Value of new construction put
in place……………………………..
1181.8 1232.5
{1182.1} {1201.5}
1162.2 1166.9 1212.5
{1167.2} {1186.5}
1773.6
1795.0 1867.4
{1797.5} {1847.6}
1763.7 1786.4 1857.0
{1788.8} {1838.1}
-592.5
-613.2
-634.9
{-615.4} {-646.1}
-601.5
-619.5
-644.5
{-621.6} {-651.6}
268.3
{269.6}
262.9
{264.7}
269.4
{267.2}
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