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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
First Quarter of 2009 (Preliminary)
May 29, 2009
This technical note provides background information about the source data and
estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release.
The complete set of estimates for the first quarter is available on BEA's Web site at
www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also posted on the Web site. In a few
weeks, the estimates will be published in BEA's monthly journal, the Survey of Current
Business, along with a more detailed analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the
Economy").
Sources of Revision to Real GDP
Real GDP decreased 5.7 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter (that is, from the fourth
quarter to the first). This estimate is an upward revision from the advance estimate that
was released last month, which showed a decrease of 6.1 percent.
•
•
•
Inventory investment was revised up, reflecting newly available Census Bureau
inventory data for March and revised data for January and February.
Exports were revised up, reflecting Census goods data and BEA services data,
which were newly available for March and revised for February, and revised BLS
export price indexes.
Consumer spending was revised down, reflecting revised Census retail sales
data for February and March and the incorporation of the 2007 Annual Retail
Trade Survey on a best-change basis.
The price index for gross domestic purchases decreased 1.0 percent in the first quarter,
the same as the advance estimate.
Corporate Profits
Profits from current production increased $42.6 billion, or 3.4 percent (quarterly rate), in
the first quarter, after decreasing $250.3 billion, or 16.5 percent, in the fourth.
Revisions to Wages and Salaries and Disposable Personal Income
In addition to presenting preliminary estimates for the first quarter, today's release also
presents revised estimates of fourth-quarter wages and salaries, personal taxes, and
contributions for government social insurance. Wage and salary disbursements are now
estimated to have decreased $21.0 billion in the fourth quarter, a downward revision of
$8.6 billion. These estimates reflect newly available wage and salary tabulations for the
fourth quarter from the Bureau of Labor Statistics quarterly census of employment and
wages. These data are more comprehensive than the monthly employment and
earnings data that were used for the earlier estimates--they include the pay of
supervisors and irregular pay, such as bonuses and gains from the exercise of stock
options.
Real disposable personal income is now estimated to have increased 2.9 percent in the
fourth quarter and to have increased 6.5 percent in the first. (By comparison, the
estimates that were available last month showed an increase of 2.7 percent in the fourth
quarter and an increase of 6.2 percent in the first.)
Comprehensive NIPA Revision Scheduled for July 31
On July 31, 2009, BEA will present the results of its comprehensive revision of the
national income and product accounts (NIPAs). A series of articles in the Survey of
Current Business discusses the revision in detail; these articles and other information
about the revision are available on the BEA Web site at
http://www.bea.gov/national/an1.htm.
The comprehensive revision will incorporate the results of the 2002 Benchmark InputOutput Accounts, as well as other improvements to the definitions, classifications, and
methodologies used in the accounts.
For the upcoming comprehensive revision, BEA is planning a number of major
improvements, including the following:
•
•
•
•
•
A new classification system will be introduced for personal consumption
expenditures (PCE). It will provide more information on consumer spending for
major categories such as financial services and recreation and will separately
identify spending by households and by nonprofit institutions.
BEA will change its treatment of disasters, such as hurricanes and earthquakes,
to better distinguish current spending from transactions that are primarily used for
capital investment, such as rebuilding activities.
The estimates of PCE for consumer electronics will be improved by using retail
point-of-sale scanner data to track the composition of spending.
The estimates of wages and salaries will incorporate new information on
employee contributions to “cafeteria plans,” which allow employees to use a
portion of their salaries on a pretax basis to pay for health insurance, medical
care, or dependent care.
The estimates of proprietors’ income will incorporate improved adjustments for
misreporting using the results of the IRS National Research Program.
The reference year for chain-type quantity and price indexes and chained-dollar
estimates will be updated from 2000 to 2005.
Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9606
Table A.--SOURCE DATA FOR THE ADVANCE AND PRELIMINARY
ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2009
This table shows the actual data used for the preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter of
2009. For these key series, actual data for March were not available in time for inclusion in the
advance GDP estimate released on April 29, 2009, and BEA made assumptions for these source
data. The numbers in brackets show the March values that had been assumed for the advance
estimate. For most series, the data incorporated for February and, in some cases, for January, were
preliminary, and the numbers shown in brackets are the values used last month.
All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are
published by the Bureau of the Census.
Oct.
2008
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
2009
Feb.
Mar.
423.1
413.9
406.9
389.3
{389.5}
392.0
{390.7}
402.6
{390.1}
16.7
16.5
44.9
50.6
32.8
{32.8}
37.0
{37.9}
Residential structures:
Value of new residential
construction put in place:
3
Single family………………………..
162.0
151.8
138.7
126.3
{125.9}
112.4
{112.1}
102.8
{103.5}
4
43.7
41.9
40.1
38.9
{39.8}
38.4
{39.0}
38.0
{36.0}
-57.0
-45.9
-137.7
-28.8
-28.3
{-30.8}
-0.8
{-33.6}
-67.0
{-54.3}
-66.8
{-109.0}
Private fixed investment:
Nonresidential structures:
1 Value of new nonresidential
construction put in place………..
2
Equipment and software:
Manufacturers' shipments of
complete aircraft……………………
Multifamily…………………………..
Change in private inventories:
5 Change in inventories for nondurable
manufacturing………………………..
5a Change in inventories for merchant
wholesale and retail industries other
than motor vehicles and equipment…
-52.7
{-53.2}
-101.8
-117.5
{-106.2} {-122.8}
-50.4
{-53.5}
Net exports:
Exports of goods:
6 U.S. exports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis…………………….
1256.5
1164.5
1065.1
986.9
6a
Excluding gold………………………
1242.2
1151.2
1052.5
971.3
Imports of goods:
U.S. imports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis……………………..
2091.3
1804.0
1680.2
1550.0
2082.8
1797.3
1675.5
1544.4
8 Net exports of goods…………………..
-834.8
-639.6
-615.1
-563.1
8a
-840.6
-646.1
-623.0
-573.1
290.3
290.1
279.1
276.0
{273.6}
7
7a
Excluding gold……………………..
Excluding gold……………………..
Government:
State and local:
Structures:
9
Value of new construction put
in place……………………………..
1013.6
983.5
{1016.3} {975.0}
1001.6
969.5
{1004.3} {961.8}
1459.0 1443.7
{1458.6} {1460.1}
1451.6 1434.7
{1451.4} {1451.7}
-445.3
-460.2
{-442.3} {-485.1}
-449.9
-465.2
{-447.0} {-489.9}
279.3
{275.9}
283.0
{274.7}